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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-08-19 | Jets v. Giants +2 | 22-31 | Win | 100 | 196 h 31 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Giants (8*) Instead of facing off in Week 3 of the preseason like these team’s normally do, the Jets and Giants are meeting in Week 1. Normally the starters play in Week 3, but in this one it’ll be the backups and wannabe’s. Last year the Giants defeated the Jets 22-16 and I’m expecting a similar final outcome here as well (note that Eli Manning completed four of seven passes for 26 yards in Week 1 of the 2018 preseason.) Sam Darnold isn’t expected to see any time here for the Jets under center, but Davis Webb, who played for the Giants last year in the preseason, is now the backup. The Giants selected Daniel Jones No. 6 in the draft and he’ll be seeing considerable time under center. I believe Jones comes to play today as this one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY |
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08-08-19 | Colts v. Bills OVER 34.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 196 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colts/Bills over (10*) The Colts made the playoffs last year behind a resurgent season from Andrew Luck. But Luck won’t be playing today. Instead it’s former Bills’ backup Frank Reich under center. Both teams put “stock” into the preseason, as the Colts were 3-1 last year and the Bills were 2-2. Indianapolis has plenty of competitions going on at every offensive position, so this definitely already lends itself to more of a higher-scoring shootout, than a lower-scoring defensive battle. The Bills re-worked their offensive line completely to make sure that sophomore Josh Allen has more protection. I believe each club focuses on the offensive side tonight. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY |
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08-07-19 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 14-2 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/O’s under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) While yesterday’s Yankees’ victory resulted in an “over,” I believe tonight’s contest sets up as more of a “duel.” John Means is 8-6 with a 3.12 ERA for Baltimore this year and he has to be feeling confident, as he’s 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three relief appearances vs. the Yanks. New York’s James Paxton is only 6-6 with a 4.61 ERA this season, but he’s 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA lifetime vs. Baltimore. Note as well that the Yanks have seen the total go under in five of their last seven AL road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks. |
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08-07-19 | White Sox v. Tigers +101 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Ivan Nova is 6-9 with a 5.10 ERA this year for the White Sox. Nova enters off a decent stretch, but note that he’s already been destroyed by Detroit earlier this year, allowing six runs off 11 hits over six innings on April 18th. In fact note that Nova is 0-3 in nine career outings vs. the Tigers (5.96 ERA.) Detroit rookie Tyler Alexander is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA over four starts, but he’s shown decent control by walking only two batters in two innings. Clearly he’ll be hungry here. This one has minor upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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08-05-19 | Cardinals +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) The Dodgers have been far and away the best team in the league this year and they enjoy one of the league’s strongest “home field advantages.” that said, St. Louis won’t be rolling over here as it tries to chase down a wild card. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha, who is 6-4 with a 5.15 ERA overall this season, who has been primarily used out of relief of late. And the switch has helped as Wacha has given up just two earned runs off 12 hits with a walk to go along with a 7:1 K:BB over his last 8.1 innings of work. And I now expect that confidence to be carried over here into this advantageous matchup which has the vet facing Dodgers’ rookie Tony Gonsolin, who is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA and who make his second big league start tonight. I’m banking on Wacha delivering the goods. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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08-04-19 | Tigers v. Rangers UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tigers/Rangers under (10*) Jordan Zimmermann won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. The veteran was 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA last year, but he took a major step back this season by going just 1-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Zimmermann though enters off his best start of the year (easily), allowing two runs off four hits over six inning with two strikeouts and on walk in a 7-2 win over the Angels on Monday. He’ll be opposed by Pedrao Payano, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. Payano most recently gave up three run over six innings in a no-decision vs. the dangerous A’s on Sunday. I expect these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Rangers. |
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08-04-19 | Angels +194 v. Indians | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Angels (8*) Jaime Barria enters off an unfortunate loss vs. the Tigers on Monday, allowing three runs (just two earned) over five innings with five K’s and no walks. Barria has now posted back-to-back strong performances and I think he has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Bieber is 10-4 with a 3.40 ERA overall this season and he’s coming off a strong start as well but if he’s had one clear weakness this season it’s actually been his play at home where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.32 ERA. Note as well that LA is 7-2 in its last nine road day AL contests in which it’s an underdog in the -175 to -200 range. Great value on an improving Barria here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Angels. |
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08-03-19 | Giants +108 v. Rockies | 6-5 | Win | 108 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Madison Bumgarner and the Giants are in the thick of a playoff spot now and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Colorado won the opener 5-4 on Friday, but the victory came at a cost with an injury to slugging outfielder David Dahl. Jon Gray gets the call for the home side and he’s a terrible 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA in nine games vs. the Giants. Bumgarner is 16-8 with a 3.07 ERA in 33 starts vs. the Rockies, including a highly respectable 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA at Coors Field. All things considered, great value on the Giants here in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Giants. |
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08-03-19 | Mariners +170 v. Astros | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* MONEY-MAKER) Yes the Astros look great as the postseason approaches. Seattle’s completely out of the picture, but I think it has a serious advantage on the mound tonight. This play is based entirely around the current form of these starting pitchers. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is 7-2 with a 3.30 ERA over his last nine starts, while Houston pitcher Aaron Sanchez is winless over his last 17 starts (0-13, 7.49), giving up 39 walks over 81 2/3’s innings while conceding a .901 OPS to opposing batters. Great value on the “superior” starting pitcher in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mariners. |
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08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Phillis over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) I think the stage is set for a “slug-fest” in this one. Last night these teams played to a 4-3, 15 inning contest in which the White Sox came out on top of. Chicago might not feel as confident with Ross Detwiler on the mound as he’s so far 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA, and he’s a brutal 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in 6 2/3’s career innings vs. Philadelphia. Aaron Nola continues to be a bright spot, but note that the Phillies have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 interleague home games after scoring three runs or less in a loss that occurred in extra frames. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Phillies. |
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08-02-19 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I just don’t trust either of these starting pitchers. The Padres Eric Lauer is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and he most recently was shelled for four runs off six hits with three walks and a K over 2.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Thursday. The Dodgers hand the ball to Dustin May (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over five starts in Triple A he posted a 2.30 ERA, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at the major league level. In a contest in which I expect each starter to “get the hook” early, I’m expecting this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers. |
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08-02-19 | Red Sox +105 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* TRADE-MARK) Boston took three of four from New York last weekend, but it dropped the finale of that four game set and it’s since lost three straight. The visitors clearly won’t be lacking for motivation here. The Yanks are scuffling as well as we come down the stretch, but with a 10.5 games lead, New York has room for error. The Red Sox though sit 3.5 games behind second place Tampa and clearly can’t let the division leaders continue to build up their lead. It’s basically now or never for Boston with a little under two months of the regular season left to go. Eduardo Rodriguez is 13-4 with a 4.13 ERA overall this year, but he’s posted a tiny 2.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 34:17 K:BB over his last six starts. His counterpart James Paxton is 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA and he most recently gave up seven runs off nine hits, including four homers in a loss to Boston last weekend. This one has “upset” written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons UNDER 34 | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Broncos/Falcons under (10* TOTAL). Both teams are coming off crummy seasons and each once again has more questions than answers as we head into the 2019/20 campaign. That said, in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, don’t expect to see to many of those questions getting answered tonight. In a contest in which I see both teams going through the motions, I believe this total will in fact stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Denver has missed the playoffs three straight years and the Broncos have since gone out and hired head coach Vic Fangio, who was the defensive coordinator for the Bears the last four seasons (note that Denver was 24th in the league in averaging only 20.6 PPG.) The Falcons were just 7-9 last year. How much gas do Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have left in them? Who knows, but neither will see any time in this game. Each of these teams gets five warm up games in the preseason this year, but in the first one, I’m expecting each to come out “rusty.” This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 14-10 Broncos. |
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08-01-19 | Cubs +112 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (10* GAME OF YEAR) St. Louis won the opener 2-1 on Tuesday, before Chicago rebounded with a 2-0 win last night. These NL Central foes are now tied for first in the division. Chicago gets an offensive boost today after acquiring slugger Nick Castellanos from the Tigers. The Cards hand the ball to Jack Flaherty, who is 4-6 with a 4.17 ERA overall this year and who has posted a 1.48 ERA over his past four starts. Flaherty though is a sub-par 1-2 with a 4.90 ERA in seven career games vs. the Cubbies. Chicago starter Jon Lester is 9-6 with a 3.63 ERA this year and just went seven scoreless vs. the Brewers on Saturday. Unlike his counterpart though, Lester has enjoyed success vs. his opponent today, going 8-5 with a 2.99 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Cardinals. I like Lester in this matchup and I expect Chicago to build off yesterday’s victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Cubs GAME OF YEAR |
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08-01-19 | Twins v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Marlins under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). Jordan Yamamoto is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA and while he’s struggled over his last three starts, I believe he’ll settle down here vs. Michael Pineda and the Twins. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” in the finale. Pineda comes in on top form having gone 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts (Pineda is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start vs. Miami.) As mentioned above, Yamamoto has struggled over the last month, but note that he’s been at his best in all “night” games this year by going 3-1 with a tiny 2.48 ERA. I think this one sneaks under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Twins. |
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07-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards under (10*) For a number of different reasons I think this one sets up as duel between the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks, who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and the Cards’ Miles Mikolas, who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA. St. Louis took the series opener 2-1 last night and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Mikolas comes in off a strong start vs. Pittsburgh, allowing three runs over six innings (Mikolas is also 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago.) Hendricks is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 16 career starts vs. St. Louis. This one sets up as a “duel.” T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Cardinals. |
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07-31-19 | Mets v. White Sox +153 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*) I think that Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito are a “wash” here. deGrom is 6-7 with a 2.86 ERA, while Giolito is 11-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Giolito comes in off a horrible outing, but he’s been great overall this year and I think he’ll be able to match deGrom inning for inning. That then swings the pendulum in favor of the underdog in my opinion. This one has all the makings of a classic upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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07-31-19 | Astros v. Indians +128 | 4-10 | Win | 128 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (8*) The hungry home side definitely offers great value in this spot. After yesterday’s 2-0 series opening loss, everything points to the Indians responding on Wednesday night. Cleveland’ rookie Zach Plesac is 5-3 with a 3.10 ERA this season and he comes in off a strong performance, allowing one unearned run off six hits over seven innings in an 8-3 win over the Royals on Friday. Houston goes with rookie Jose Urquidy, who is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA. So far Urquidy has been sharp, but clearly this is his stiffest test to date. Additionally note that Cleveland is a sharp 26-17 (+4.2 units) this season following a loss. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians. |
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07-30-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) These clubs are both pushing for a playoff spot. Neither starter has been great this year either, as Yu Darvish is just 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA for Chicago, while Adam Wainwright is only 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great as a higher-scoring slug-fest, but the numbers/trends also point that direction as well, as note that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a road dog this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in five of its last six after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. |
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07-30-19 | Astros v. Indians +105 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians had Monday off and this is the opener of a nine-game home stand. Despite having to face Houston ace Justin Verlander, I believe that Shane Bieber and the surging home side offer great value in this spot. Bieber most recently allowed one hit and struck out ten in a 4-0 shutout over the Jays on Wednesday. Verlander gave up one run over six innings in a 4-2 win over the A’s in his last start. But the Indians are a sharp 26-16 (+5.2 units) this year after a loss and I believe they’re going to find a way to get the job done here as well. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Indians. |
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07-29-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 140 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Dodgers failed to complete the sweep in Philadelphia and I think they’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue. I believe the starters are a “wash;” the visitors go with Kenta Maeda, who is 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA, while the home side goes with Jon Gray, who is 9-7 with a 4.05 ERA. The Rockies are on the cusp of being “sellers” at the trade deadline after going 9-22, but I think they put it together here in this very favorable situational spot. Great value on the hungry home side tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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07-29-19 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Nationals under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two teams known for their offensive prowess go head to head in this series. Two pitchers who come in red hot also collide though and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel has had issues with the Nationals in the past, but in his last start he gave up two runs over six innings to go along with 12 strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Royals. The Braves lost two key sluggers as well recent in Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson. Nationals’ starter Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA overall, but he’s 5-1 with a 1.85 ERA in ten games vs. Atlanta lifetime (Corbin also enters off a strong performance, going six scoreless vs. Colorado in front of the home town crowd.) I look for these starter to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. |
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07-28-19 | Yankees +162 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 162 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Yankees (10* U of U BOB) The Yankees have easily been the best team in the AL this year, but the Red Sox have easily taken the first three games of this four-game series. But I think that New York will bounce back and find a way to get the job done in the finale. Domingo German is 12-2 with a 4.03 ERA for the Yanks this year, while Chris Sale is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA for Boston. Sale’s sure looked a lot better of late after a horrible start to the 2019 campaign. German comes in off his worst start of the season, getting knocked around for eight runs over three innings, he’s been decent throughout his career vs. the Red Sox by posting a 4.10 ERA over three appearances. But this pick is more about New York fighting for respect here after getting man handled so easily over the first three games of this series (note as well that the Yanks are already 5-1 this year when playing with triple revenge vs. an opponent.) This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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07-27-19 | Rangers +173 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10*) Adrian Sampson is horrible. He’s just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA this year. But so too is Oakland’s Homer Bailey, who is 8-7 with a 5.42 ERA. Besides Oakland comes in sputtering right now having lost three straight. Bailey looked decent in his debut for the A’s, but then he got blasted in an 11-1 loss to the Astros in his next outing. Bailey’s faced the Rangers twice this year (while with the Royals) and he’s been destroyed, posting a 10.13 ERA and losing both contests badly (16-1, 6-2.) Sampson faced the A’s in June and pitched his only complete game of his career in the 3-1 win. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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07-27-19 | Cubs +109 v. Brewers | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago Cubs (8*) The Cubs’ Jon Lester has struggled of late, but I think there’s no need to hit the panic button. Overall Lester is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA, but he’ll be confident here knowing that he’s 5-3 with a 2.35 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Brewers. Anderson has been great recently as well and he’s 5-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 12 games vs. Chicago, but note that the Brewers are already just 18-20 (-8.1 units) this year after having won two of their last three games. Conversely note that the Cubs are 112-76 (+12.8 units) the L2 years following a loss. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cubs. |
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07-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox +157 | 1-5 | Win | 157 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8*) I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the home dog. Chicago is looking to break a four-game slide. After becoming the fastest team to hit 200 homers in a season, I think the Twins take a step ack here after yesterday’s 6-2 win. Ivan Nova has had plenty of success vs. the Twins in the past and I think that he and Minnesota starter Martin Perez are more evenly matched than what this line would suggest. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done in the end. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 White Sox. |
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07-26-19 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Mets over (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL). Neither of these starters instills much confidence. Zach Wheeler is 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA for the Mets, while rookie Dario Agrazal is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Pirates. Wheeler last pitched on July 7th, allowing six runs over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Phillies. Pittsburgh will be desperate to break a six-game slide, but Agrazal is likely to have his hands full here, as note that the Pirates have seen the total fly over the number in 25 of 38 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. Additionally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of 17 this season in the same position. This number is a tad low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Mets. |
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07-26-19 | Dodgers v. Nationals +145 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers will most likely win the World Series this year, but I think they’re going to stumble in the opener of this series in the Nation’s capital. Anibal Sanchez has been “lights out” for the Nationals, going 6-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last nine starts. The Nationals have only lost four of their last 17 at home and I expect Washington to get back on track after last night’s loss rare ninth inning loss to the Rockies. In my opinion, the stage is set for the slight upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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07-26-19 | Rockies +132 v. Reds | Top | 12-2 | Win | 132 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Rockies and German Marquez have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one despite facing Reds’ ace Luis Castillo. Marquez is 9-5 with a 4.99 ERA this year, while Castillo is 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA. Colorado won for just the second time in its last 11 outings after winning 8-7 in the ninth inning in Washington on Thursday. Both Marquez and Castillo come off strong outings, so I’m calling the starters a “wash.” Note though that Colorado is interestingly 9-5 (+5.8 units) already this season after playing six or more consecutive road games, while Cincinnati is just 1-6 (-5.3 units) this year off a one run loss vs. a division rival. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox +135 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (10*) Jose Berrios is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA for the Twins, while Lucas Giolito is 11-4 with a 3.12 ERA for the White Sox. Berrios is 0-1 with a 3.45 ERA over three July starts. Giolito has been a bright spot for the Chi-Sox all season long and he enters off a gem vs. the Rays, allowing one run with nine strikeouts over seven innings in the victory. Note that he pitched five shutout frames vs. Minnesota on June 30th in Chicago already this year and I believe he’ll do it again tonight. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 White Sox. |
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07-25-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yankees/Red Sox under (10*) Masahiro Tanaka is 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA for the Yankees, while Rick Porcello is 8-7 with a 5.61 ERA for the Red Sox. This is the first time the teams have met in Boston this season. These two pitchers met in London in a two-game series and neither made it out of the first inning. Porcello gave up six runs, while Tanaka was also rocked for six as well. Clearly something about the atmosphere/surroundings played a part in each of these normally steady hurlers performance that day. Both sides feature plenty of home run power, but I think the overall situation points to a lower-scoring “duel,” as I look for these hungry hurlers to battle deep into the latter frames as they set out to atone for their earlier disappointing performances. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. |
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07-25-19 | Padres +187 v. Mets | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Diego Padres (8*) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry visiting underdog. Neither team has been mathematically eliminated. San Diego bounced back from a series opening loss with a 7-2 win on Wednesday and I look for it to build here. The Mets are tied with the Pirates for the second to worst record in the NL and they’re no ten games under the .500 mark. Jacob deGrom remains a bright spot for the Mets and while he’s 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA over his last 11 starts, the Mets are just 3-8 in those games. Eric Lauer has scuffled in July, so he certainly won’t be lacking for motivation either. I think New York is over-priced here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Padres. |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Braves under (10* TRADE-MARK) Two red hot hurlers collide in this interleague contest and I believe that runs will be at a premium. The Royals’ Brad Keller is 6-9 with a 4.18 ERA, while the Braves’ Julio Teheran is 5-6 with a 3.61 ERA overall this year. Keller though is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 K’s over 20 innings of work this month, while Teheran has posted a tiny 1.53 ERA in June spanning 17 2/3’s innings of work. I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. Considering the recent form of these starters, I think this number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Braves. |
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07-24-19 | Indians v. Blue Jays +118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (10* BANKROL BUILDER) Marcus Stroman is 6-10 with a 3.06 ERA for Toronto and he could be throwing for the Jays for the very last time tonight. Stroman is one of the big names rumored to be shipped out by the trade deadline, so clearly the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be lacking for motivation today. Toronto looks to build off its 2-1, ten-inning victory last night vs. Shane Bieber, who is 9-3 with a 3.69 ERA. Note that Stroman is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven appearances vs. Cleveland, while Bieber is 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two career appearances vs. Toronto. I like Stroman at home though in what I believe to be a very sharp “spot bet.” Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-24-19 | A's +193 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (8* MONEY-MAKER) I think that Chris Bassitt and the hungry A’s have much more than just a “punchers chance” vs. Justin Verlander and the Astros. Bassitt is 7-4 with a 3.96 ERA, while Verlander is 12-4 with a 2.99 ERA. The A’s won 4-3 in 11 innings last night and I expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Bassitt is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA four career appearances vs. the Astros. Verlander is 13-6 with a 2.63 ERA in 21 career appearances vs. the A’s. Note though that Oakland 35-23 (+10.3 units) this year following a victory, while Houston is just 4-5 (-6.3 units) this season after allowing four runs or less in five straight games. Great value on the hungry dog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets +115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego is just 7-12 vs. southpaws this season, while New York is 9-5 in its last 14 at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. |
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07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Mets under (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 vs. left-handed starters, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of 11 as a home underdog. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. |
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07-23-19 | Cardinals +109 v. Pirates | 4-3 | Win | 109 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) I think Daniel Hudson and the visiting side will pull off the slight upset on the road here vs. Chris Archer and the Pirates. The Cards rail lied for 6-5, ten inning victory, capped off by a grand slam by Paul Goldschmidt. These teams are moving in opposite directions, with the Cards having won eight of ten, while the Pirates enter on a 2-8 skid. Note that Hudson is 4-1 in his past six road starts (he’s also 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five appearances vs. the Bucs.) Archer continues his “hit or miss” campaign and I think he’s ripe for the picking here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cardinals. |
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07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/D-Backs under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Aaron Brooks is just 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA and while he’s been “hit or miss” in a starters role for the lowly Orioles, this play is almost entirely based upon Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who is 8-6 with a 3.92 ERA this year and who is rumored to be on the trading block. Ray will want to be at his best for any possible suitors, which includes the Yankees. Ray comes in on top form, having won three straight trips to the hill, allowing a combined six runs over 19 innings with eight walks and 23 K’s in that span. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 14 this year after allowing one run or less, while Arizona has seen the total go under in ten of its last 14 at home when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 D-Backs. |
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07-22-19 | A's +203 v. Astros | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (10* GAME OF WEEK) Homer Bailey is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA for the A’s after dominating the Mariners in his first start for his new club, holding Seattle to two runs while striking out six over six innings on Wednesday. Bailey is 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA overall this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Houston throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Astros’ Gerrit Cole is 10-5 with a 3.12 ERA this year and he’s also enjoyed plenty of success vs. Oakland, however I think that Bailey can match him inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog, which won’t be lacking for motivation sitting 6.5 games back of their host. Play on Oakland. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 A’s. |
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07-22-19 | Marlins +114 v. White Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* MONEY-MAKER) The White Sox return home after a 2-8 road trip and I think that the hungry Marlins will add to their misery here in their first start back in friendly confines. The Fish won’t be lacking for motivation here either after getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend. Chicago hands the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 4-9 with a 5.86 ERA and who is 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA over his last 10 2/3’s innings of work. The Marlins’ Trevor Richards is 3-11 with a 4.24 ERA and he’s been at his best on the road, coming in sporting a very respectable 3.52 ERA (despite a 1-3 record.) Miami is interestingly 5-2 (+4.6 units) this year already vs. the AL Central, while Chicago is just 1-3 vs. the NL East. Great value on the undervalued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-21-19 | Rockies +179 v. Yankees | 8-4 | Win | 179 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (8* MONEY-MAKER) German Marquez is 8-5 with a 5.12 ERA this year for the Rockies, while James Paxton is 5-4 with a 3.94 ERA for the Yankees. Colorado comes in highly motivated after getting outscored 19-7 so far. Would anyone fault the Yanks for taking the foot off the gas after 23 wins in their last 29 games? The Rockies are on a six-game losing streak and will be leaving everything they have on the field to break the slide. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Rockies. |
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07-20-19 | Nationals +150 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 150 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Nationals (10* CASH MACHINE) Mike Soroka is 10-1 with a 2.24 ERA. Clearly the Braves rookie has been exceptional this year, but Anibal Sanchez and the hungry Nationals won’t be going down without a fight today. Sanchez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts already vs. the Braves and he hasn’t lost to them since 2012. Washington is also 10-6 (+6.5 units) this year as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range, while Atlanta is just 14-15 in its last 29 off a one run win off a division rival. As mentioned off the top, I think the hungry visiting side offers great value in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Nationals. |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals +131 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: St. Louis Cardinals (8*) The Cards come in with considerable momentum, having won six of eight out of the All Star Break and I look for it to carry it over here. St. Louis was in a 7-0 hole on Friday, before then finishing with a 12-11 victory. After that deflating setback, I think the Reds are ripe for the picking despite sending ace Luis Castillo to the hill. St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas is just 6-9 with a 4.15 ERA this season, but he comes in off his best start of 2019, throwing his second complete game of his five-year career vs. the Pirates on Monday (he’s a respectable 2-1 with a 3.99 ERA in his career vs. Cincinnati.) Castillo most recently earned a win in his first start back from the break despite not being at his best, allowing three runs off seven hits over six innings (overall he’s 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA in seven career match ups vs. the Cards.) I like Mikolas to match Castillo inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe the value swings to the under valued underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cards. |
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07-20-19 | A's +135 v. Twins | 5-4 | Win | 135 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oakland A’s (8*) Two hungry teams collide in this one and I think that the visitors have much more than just a punchers chance. Twins’ starter Jose Berrios has gone six straight starts without a victory. Berrios has in fact gone 0-3 over his last six starts and he’ 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA in three career match ups vs. Oakland. The A’s Brett Anderson is 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA nine games against the Twins, including 1-1 with a shape 2.37 ERA in three career starts at Target Field. I like the A’s to take advantage of the slumping Berrios. Great play on the starter in much better overall form. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 A’s. |
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07-19-19 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +114 | 7-10 | Win | 114 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Diamondbacks (8* MONEY-MAKER). Milwaukee took the opener of this series 5-1, but I like the D-Backs to bounce back on Friday night. Arizona turns to Taylor Clarke, who returns from the DL after throwing six scoreless innings in a rehab start at Class A Visalia on Saturday. Clarke’s struggled for the most part this year, but the good news for the D-Backs starter is that Brewers’ veteran Jhoulys Chacin is 0-6 over his past ten starts. After three straight wins, I look for Milwaukee to take a step back here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 D-Backs. |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa +10 v. Winnipeg | Top | 1-31 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: RedBlacks (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) All good things must come to an end. Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last five at home dating back to last year and while I’m not in fact calling for an outright SU upset, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a much closer than expected battle than what this spread would suggest. This in fact sets up as an immediate revenge game for the RedBlacks as well, as they lost 29-14 to the Bombers just two weeks ago. It’s definitely interesting to note though that Ottawa has won three of the last four played at Winnipeg dating back to 2015. The RedBlacks won’t be lacking for motivation here as they look to break their two-game slide. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Winnipeg. |
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07-19-19 | Rangers +199 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think that Justin Verlander and the Astros are over-priced in this one. Verlander is putting together another great season, but I think that his counterpart Mike Minor will match him inning for inning. The Rangers won’t be lacking for motivation either after losing four straight. Look for Minor to go deep and for the hungry dog to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-18-19 | Mets -111 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 30 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (8*) All good things must come to an end. That’s the moral of this story. The Giants have won five straight behind some big offensive performances, but I believe the team finally has a letdown here vs. the hungry Mets. Madison Bumgarner has never lost to New York in his entire career, but I also think that that streak of excellence finally ends this evening as well. Noah Syndergaard has enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Giants in his career and I expect “Thor” to be at his best here. The Giants have been a great underdog play over the last couple of weeks, but I believe that trend ends tonight. Lay the short price. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Mets. |
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07-18-19 | Tigers +194 v. Indians | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8*) The Indians have been on quite the run over the last couple of months, but I think the Tribe finally have a letdown here. Detroit certainly won’t be lacking for motivation either after losing ten in a row in this series. Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer is 8-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year, but he owns a poor 5.40 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Detroit. The visitors counter with their ace Matt Boyd, who is 6-7 with a 3.95 ERA this season and who is a respectable 2-3 with a 3.40 ERA in ten career appearances vs. the Indians. I think the stage is set for the upset. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. |
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07-17-19 | Padres v. Marlins +133 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (10* TRADE-MARK) The Marlins pulled off the 12-7 win last night and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here vs. the suddenly struggling Padres, who enter having lost four in a row. Chris Paddack is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA this year, while Trevor Richards is 3-10 with a 4.18 ERA. I think these starters are a “wash,” but I’ll point out that San Diego is 6-9 (-8.5 units) as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Miami is interestingly 7-4 (+4.8 units) this year vs. the NL West. Great value on the home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +138 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) LA has been the best team in the league by far so far this season, but Philadelphia is unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one. The Dodgers destroyed the Phillies 16-2 in the opener of this series, but Philadelphia bounced back with a tough 9-8 win last night and I think the home team carries over that momentum. Nick Pivetta is 4-4 with a 5.81 ERA this year for the Phillies and while he’s struggled of late, so too has his counterpart Kenta Maeda, who is 7-6 with a 3.82 ERA overall, but who has allowed 16 home runs this year, after allowing only 13 all of last season. Maeda owns a 4.29 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Phillies, while Pivetta is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three career outings vs. the Dodgers. Great value on the hungry home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-17-19 | Pirates +130 v. Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh Pirates (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Pirates are out of the cellar in the NL Central after last night’s 3-1 victory. The win snapped a four-game losing streak, and now Pittsburgh sits just behind the Cards in the division. Chris Archer gets the nod for the hungry visiting side and he’s 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA this year. Archer though comes in with a ton of confidence himself after his best performance of the season, allowing three runs and striking out ten over seven innings in a no-decision to Chicago. The home side goes with Daniel Ponce de Leon, who is 1-0 with a 1.99 ERA. He most recently allowed one run over six innings in a no-decision to the D-Backs. Archer though has a 2.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cardinals and I believe the veteran carries over his recent momentum. This one has slight upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. |
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07-16-19 | Giants +122 v. Rockies | 8-4 | Win | 122 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8*) The Giants won both games in yesterday’s double header and I think the surging visiting side will carry that momentum over on Tuesday night. Drew Pomeranz is just 2-9 with a 6.42 ERA, while Peter Lambert is only 2-1 with a 6.67 ERA. Pomeranz though is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career games vs. Colorado. Additionally note that the Giants are +8.9 units this year vs. right-handed starters, while Colorado is already 7-14 this year after a loss by two runs or less. Look for the San Fran to keep the good times rolling. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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07-16-19 | Reds +117 v. Cubs | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) The Cubs’ lost in 6-3 in yesterday’s series opener and I think they’re ripe for another letdown here as well. Alec Mills will make his season debut for the Cubs and I think he’ll struggle in this spot. Mills is 0-1 with a 5.48 ERA in ten career games. The hungry visiting side, which hasn’t won back-to-back games since early July, turns to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 5-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Note that in 11 career starts vs. the Cubs DeSclafani is 4-3 with a 3.84 ERA, walking 20 and striking out 58 in 61 1/3’s innings opposed. Cincinnati is also 30-21 (+11.9 units) in all “night” games this season, while Chicago is just 8-10 (-4.8 units) this year after three consecutive games vs. a division rival. I’m banking on the “better” pitcher to deliver the goods. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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07-16-19 | Nationals v. Orioles +182 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Orioles (8*) After taking two of three vs. the Phillies over the weekend, I think the Nationals have a predictable letdown here vs. their lowly interleague opponent. Austin Both is 0-0 with a 5.52 ERA for the Nationals, while Asher Wojciechowski is 0-2 with a 6.10 ERA. Neither starter has an advantage here, so in that case, I definitely feel that the value swings to the hungry underdog. Washington is also just 27-28 (-7.9 units) in all “night” games this year, while Baltimore is 3-1 (+3 units) in its last four after scoring four runs or less in five straight games. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Orioles. |
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07-15-19 | White Sox v. Royals +120 | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Royals (8* MONEY-MAKER) Lucas Giolito has had plenty of success vs. the Royals in the past and he’s coming off his first All Star Game appearance, but he was destroyed in his last start before the break, giving up six runs and five walks over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on July 6th. Jakob Junis is only 4-8 with a 5.33 ERA this year, but he comes in off his best start of the year, holding the Nationals to two runs over seven innings. This one has upset written all over it in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Royals. |
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07-15-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +150 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Clayton Kershw is 7-2 with a 3.09 ERA for the Dodgers and he was just in the All Star Game. He has plenty of success vs. the Phillies as well. Philadelphia starter Zach Eflin is 7-8 with a 3.78 ERA and he’s struggled throughout his career vs. the Dodgers. LA is the league’s best team, but it comes in “dog tired” after a 12 innings victory at Boston last night. I think the hungry Phillies take advantage. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-15-19 | Rays +141 v. Yankees | 5-4 | Win | 141 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay Rays (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Blake Snell is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA this season for the Rays, one year removed from winning the AL Cy Young Award. Clearly it’s not been what Snell would have anticipated and he’s already been crushed twice by the Yanks this year. The Rays though enter this four-game series looking to make up ground against the AL East opponent. The Yanks’ James Paxton is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA this year, but he faces a red hot Tampa team which has gone 5-1 in its last six and scored 33 runs in taking three of four from Baltimore over the weekend. This one has upset written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rays. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +202 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* CASH MACHINE) Justin Verlander is obviously one of the best pitchers on the planet, but I still think he’s over-priced on the road in this one. Verlander comes in struggling as he’s allowed at least one home run in each of his previous five starts, posting a poor 1-2, 4.91 ERA in the process. The home side goes with Ariel Jurado, who is 5-4 with a 4.23 ERA and who is 1-0 with 0.93 ERA over three career appearances vs. the Astros. I like Texas to take command with a big victory at home. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-14-19 | Giants +158 v. Brewers | 8-3 | Win | 158 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Here’s a great spot bet. The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin is just 3-9 with a 5.40 ERA this season and he enters in terrible form, having gone 0-6 with a 5.77 ERA over his last eight starts. The visitors go with Tyler Beede, who is 2-3 with a 5.64 ERA and who has earned both of his victories on the road (also note that he owns a 3.38 ERA in all “day” games this season.) Additionally note that San Fran is already a perfect 2-0 this season after having won six or seven of its last eight, while Milwaukee is just 7-8 after having lost five or six of its last seven. Great value on the visitors in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays +185 v. Yankees | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (8* BLACK-LABEL) I had a big winner on the Jays yesterday and I believe they offer great value to do it again on Sunday afternoon. The visitors turn to Marcus Stroman (5-9, 3.18 ERA) who is likely throwing for his final time ever as a Blue Jay. Stroman will likely be shipped before the deadline. Stroman last pitched on June 23rd, going six scoreless in a 6-1 win over the Red Sox. The home side will see Mashario Tanaka (5-5, 3.86) toe the slab and he most recently got rocked for four runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rays on July 5th. I think these starters are evenly matched, which definitely swings the value in favor of the hungry dog in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-13-19 | Astros v. Rangers +120 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rangers go for the sweep of the Astros tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, who is 7-4 with a 3.28 ERA this season (note that Houston is just 5-4 in his last nine starts.) Miley is a poor 3-5 with a 5.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Rangers. Texas’ starter Mike Minor is 8-4 with a 2.54 ERA this year and 3-0 with a 2.18 ERA over his last six starts (note that Minor is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two outings vs. Houston this season.) I like Minor to easily out duel Miley and I look for the home side to take full advantage. Great price on this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +160 v. Red Sox | 11-2 | Win | 160 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Dodgers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) I think Rod Stripling and the league leading Dodgers offer great value in this spot. Stripling is 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA and he’ll be facing Chris Sale, who is 3-8 with a 4.04 ERA. Sale most recently was shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings vs. the Jays before the break. The Dodgers definitely won’t be lacking for motivation after four straight losses, losing three in a row to the Padres before the break and last night’s 8-1 series opening setback. Note that Sale is winless in two appearances with a 10.50 ERA vs. the Dodgers lifetime. I’m banking on a big bounce back from the National League in this one. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Dodgers. |
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07-13-19 | Blue Jays +260 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 260 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Blue Jays (8* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost 4-0 in the opener of this series last night, but I think it offers great value (at this huge price!) to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Toronto faces JA Happ, who is 7-4 with a 5.02 ERA this year. Happ has been “hit or miss” this season and while he’s had plenty of success vs. his former team in the past, note that he’s allowed 20 homers this year already, including 13 at home where he has a poor 6.29 ERA. Clayton Richard is only 1-5 with a 6.23 ERA this year for the Jays, but he enters off a win in which he gave up three runs over six innings vs. the Orioles before the break. The Yanks are over-priced here and I think the bookmakers pay for their mistake. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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07-12-19 | Toronto +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Argonauts (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Blue Bombers have a great team, but after starting 3-0, I think they come out flat here and get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent. QB Matt Nichols was injured last week and while he’s expected to be back in the line-up today, I still believe it’ll make Winnipeg come out cautious here. Toronto enters 0-2 and it certainly won’t be lacking for motivation after dropping a close one at home to BC last weekend. Toronto also plays with “double revenge” after losing both games in this series last year. No outright, but the stage is set for a tighter than expected battle in my opinion. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 28-23 Bombers. |
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07-12-19 | Rays v. Orioles +144 | Top | 16-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Rays were a big surprise over the first two months of the season, but Tampa Bay scuffled down the stretch of the first half and I believe that trend carries over here vs. a Baltimore team which turned things around considerably before the Mid-Summer Classic. Yonny Chirinos is 7-4 with a 3.15 ERA for the Rays so far this season, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The Rays are just 17-19 in their last 36 and injuries to the bullpen have been a big reason why. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy, who is 4-10 with a 4.65 ERA and who enters off a gem, holding Toronto to one run off three hits over seven innings in the victory. The Rays are only 18-19 (-5.7 units) this year with a money line in the -100 to -150 range this season and I believe they’re ripe for the picking in their first game back from the break. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Orioles. |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers +105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 105 | 32 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Houston leads the AL West, but it hands the ball to Framber Valdez to open this series and he’s just 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA in the big leagues this year. Note that Valdez has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-3 with a ballooned 5.09 ERA (also terrible in all “night” games, going 2-3 with a 6.38 ERA). Rangers’ starter Lance Lynn is 11-4 with a 3.91 ERA overall this year and he’s 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Houston. I’m banking on Lynn taking advantage of this opportunity. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Rangers. |
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07-08-19 | G Pella +5 v. Milos Raonic | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Guido Pella +2 1/2 SETS -138 vs. Milos Raonic (Pinnacle) Guido Pella comes in fresh and I think he’ll push Milos Raonic to the brink. Pella enters off a straight sets win over Keving Anderson, which took 32 games to decide. Pella would go on to connect on 76 percent of his first serves. He enters with three straight victories overall and he’s won three of his last five matches on grass. Raonic advanced in straight sets over Reilly Opelka, which took 28 games to decide and in which he hit a remarkable 93 percent of his first serves. He’s now won five of his last six on grass. Raonic is arguably playing his best tennis of his career, but Pella won’t be rolling over and I expect him to give the hard-serving Canadian everything he can handle. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Raonic. |
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07-07-19 | Cubs v. White Sox +138 | 1-3 | Win | 138 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Chicago White Sox (8*) Kyle Hendricks is 7-6 with a 3.45 ERA and he’ll face the White Sox’ Ivan Nova, who is 3-7 with a 5.92 ERA. Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.44 in six starts vs. Chicago, while Nova is 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA in nine career outings vs. the Cubs. I think the Cubs take the foot off the gas here though and note that they’re just 5-6 (-3 units) as a road favorite this year anyways. Conversely note that the White Sox are still 24-19 (+8.7 units) at home this season. Great spot bet on the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Sox. |
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07-07-19 | Marlins +183 v. Braves | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8*) Miami upset the Braves last night and I like the visitors to do it again here, as I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” to the All Star break. Trevor Richards gets the call for the Marlins and he’s 3-9 with a 4.02 ERA. The Braves hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, who is 1-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Atlanta had won seven in a row in this series previous to last night’s loss and I think this absolutely sets up as a natural “letdown/look-ahead” spot for the Braves, who will go into the break with the division lead despite what happens this afternoon. Richards comes in on top form, having gone at least five innings in a career-long ten straight games and he’s gone a career-high seven frames twice during that run (note that Richards allowed nine home runs over his first nine starts, but since then he’s allowed just three over his last eight games.) Keuchel comes in off his best start of the year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Another great spot bet on the hungry and undervalued visiting side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Marlins. |
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07-07-19 | Indians v. Reds +116 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) After five straight victories, I think the Tribe finally take the foot off the gas here in the final game before the All Star Game. Enough is enough as far as the Reds are concerned, as they’ve lost nine of the last 11 at home in this series. Tyler Mahle gets the nod for the visitors and he’s 2-8 with a 4.36 ERA so far this season. Mahle won’t be lacking for motivation either as he looks to snap a five-start winless streak, most recently allowing three runs over six frames in a no-decision to the Brewers. Bauer is 3-0 in his last four starts, but he was fortunate in his 9-5 win over the Royals on Tuesday, as he’d go on to concede a career-high 11 hits in the victory. A great situational spot bet on the hungry home side here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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07-06-19 | Phillies v. Mets -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Mets (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s Jake Arrieta of the Phillies vs. Noah Syndergaard of the Mets. Arrieta is 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA this season, while Syndergaard is 5-4 with a 4.56. Philadelphia posted the 7-2 victory last night (I had the Phillies in that one) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here as well. New York is struggling, having gone just 13-23 since last May. Philadelphia only has nine wins out of its last 24 games, but note that five of those victories have comes against these very Metropolitans. New York now the punching bag of the NL (along with the Marlins) and I expect Philadelphia to continue that trend. Arrieta comes in with momentum after back-to-back victories, while Syndergaard makes his second trip to the hill after a stint on the IL, most recently allowing three runs over five innings vs. Atlanta. I think New York has already “packed it in.” T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Phillies WARNING: WRONG SIDE CHOSEN. This is a play on the Phillies. Sorry for the confusion, over the course of a year, sometimes I make a mistake entering picks. |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +7 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Argonauts (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) BC is 0-3 and Toronto is 0-2. The Lions have allowed a league-worst 108 points through three games. Toronto’s issues have been on the offensive side of the ball, it’s been outscored by 75 points over its two setbacks. Something has to give here and while I’m not going to call for an outright victory, I think that these two desperate clubs are going to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. Note though that BC is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records. I just think that after last week’s emotional 36-32 loss in Calgary, that BC is going to have difficulty finding the same energy on the road for a second straight contest. Toronto turns to McLeod Bethel Thompson as their undisputed No. 1 QB now and I think he keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-28 Argos. |
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07-06-19 | Orioles +130 v. Blue Jays | 8-1 | Win | 130 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Orioles (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Orioles upset the struggling Jays 4-1 in last night’s series opener and I look for the underdog visitors to deliver the goods again in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for them. Baltimore goes with Andrew Cashner, who is is 8-3 with a 4.03 ERA, while Toronto hands the ball to Clayton Richard, who is 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA to this point. Richard is 1-1 with a ballooned 5.93 ERA in three career games vs. the Orioles. Cashner earned a win vs. the Jays on April 2nd by going six scoreless and he’s 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts vs. Toronto. Baltimore comes in having won four of its last seven and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas on Saturday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 O’s. |
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07-05-19 | Cardinals v. Giants +115 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Giants (8*) The Cards won two of three in Seattle, but I think they’ll falter in the opener of this series. The Giants come in on top form having won four straight and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas tonight. The visitors go with rookie Dakota Hudson, who is 6-4 with a 3.40 ERA, while the home side goes with Drew Pomeranz, who is 2-8 with a 6.25 ERA thus far. Pomeranz comes in off his best performance in a long time, going five shutout innings and striking out seven in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Diamondbacks last weekend. Hudson on the other hand comes in off his worst start of his career, getting rocked for seven runs over one inning vs. the Padres on Saturday. Everything points to a slight upset in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Giants. |
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07-05-19 | Phillies +170 v. Mets | 7-2 | Win | 170 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies (8*) I think Vince Velasquez, who is 2-5 with a 4.73 ERA and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in the opener of this three game series vs. the Mets. The home side turns to Jacob deGrom, who is 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA. The Phillies come in motivated after a 12-6 loss to the Braves. But at 45-42, Philadelphia is only a half game out of a wild-card spot: "We have work to do," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler said Thursday night. "We get back to work tomorrow, we turn the page quickly. One game in isolation is not going to kill us. We have to raise our level of play." A game vs. the hapless Mets, who are just 7-15 in their last 22, is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. As note that the Phillies are 11-4 (+6.5 units) this season after allowing nine or more runs in their previous contest, while the Mets are just 21-26 (-9.9 units) this year following a loss and only 9-11 (-4.0 units) after scoring two runs or less. For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Phillies. |
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07-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Brewers/Pirates under (8*) The Brewers come in struggling at the plate, having been shutout in back-to-back games. That’s unfortunate news for Milwaukee, as it has to face red hot Pirates’ starter Steven Brault, who is 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA overall, but who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA since joining the rotation in May. Brault faced Milwaukee last weekend and he gave up one run over five innings. The struggling visiting side counters with Zach Davies, who is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA overall and who is already 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three match-ups vs. Pittsburgh this season. Considering the Brewers form as the first half closes and how well these pitchers have faired of late, I do indeed feel this total is much too high. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Brewers. |
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07-04-19 | Phillies +153 v. Braves | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies (8* MONEY-MAKER). Braves’ pitcher Mike Soroka became the youngest pitcher in club history to make the All Star Game, but I think he’ll stumble here in his final start before the mid-summer classic. Soroka is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA, but Zach Eflin is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA for the Phillies. The Phillies won the first game 2-0, before then falling 9-2 on Wednesday. Soroka has never faced the hard-hitting Phillies. In my opinion this sets up as natural letdown spot for the rookie. Eflin has the experience to take advantage and I look for the veteran to do just that. Great value on the visitors to pull off the upset after last night’s humbling defeat. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Phillies. |
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07-04-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 10 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Nationals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). I think this number is a little high. The home side hands the ball to veteran Anibal Sanchez, who is 4-6 with a 3.82 ERA overall, but who enters on top of his game right now with four straight victories (note that in six games vs. the Fish lifetime he owns a 3.33 ERA.) Most recently Sanchez allowed one run over six innings in a win over the Tigers. The Marlins counter with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA, but who also comes into this contest off a strong performance, giving up two runs off seven K’s with two walks over 5 2/3’s innings in a win over the Phillies on Friday. Note as well that Miami’s seen the total go under in 20 of 28 this year as a road dog of +150 or more, while Washington has seen the total dip under in 17 of its last 27 as a -150 favorite or higher. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Nationals. |
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07-03-19 | Cardinals v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/M’s under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Adam Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA this year for the Cards, while Mike Leake is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA vs. the Mariners. Seattle came from behind to win 5-4 last night, but I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The loss dropped the Cards to 41-42 on the season, while the victory snapped a four-game slide for the M’s. Wainwright is 0-2 over his last three trips to the mound, despite not giving up more than three runs in any outing (note that Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. Seattle.) Leake’s four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. Milwaukee, allowing four runs over six innings. I’ll point out thought that the last placed Mariners have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 13 home games after scoring five or more runs in a victory in their previous contest. I definitely feel that tonight’s contest sets up as a “duel,” rather than a high-scoring “slug-fest.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. |
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07-02-19 | Brewers -103 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (10* TRADE-MARK) I think the visitors offer great value to pull off the slight upset on the road Tuesday night. Milwaukee won 8-6 last night and it’s back on track for sure now after winning seven of its last ten. Chase Anderson is so far 4-2 with a 4.42 ERA for Milwaukee and he enters on top form, having won three straight starts (Anderson is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Cincinnati.) Tanner Roark is 5-6 with a 3.36 ERA for Cincinnati and while he’s enjoyed success vs. Milwaukee in the past, I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Note that Milwaukee is 22-13 (+7 units) this season vs. the division now, while the Reds are only 15-25 this season when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Expect that hard-hitting Brewers to build off yesterday’s offensive explosion. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Brewers. |
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07-02-19 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Pirates under (8* MONEY-MAKER) A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. Pittsburgh pounded out 23 hits in Monday’s 18-5 win, dropping Chicago to 16-24 on the road, including only 4-13 in its last 17 away from friendly confines. The Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks to stop the bleeding. Hendricks, who is 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA, will be opposed by Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove, who is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA. Hendricks returns from a shot stint on the DL; note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.52 ERA over his last nine appearances. Musgrove has won his last two starts, giving up only a single run over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts and zero walks. I’m expecting these two red hot starters to battle deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cubs. |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan OVER 53.5 | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 154 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Argos/Riders over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Toronto won back-to-back pre-season games, but then had to sit through a Week 1 “bye.” Whatever momentum it may have had coming out of the pre-season was clearly lost in last week’s embarrassing 64-14 setback at home to Hamilton. Toronto’s offense wasn’t terrible, it actually produced 322 yards. The defensive side of things though was a complete disaster for the Argos, as they were gashed for 604 yards by the Ti-Cats (James Franklin was 16 of 26 for 211 yards and one INT, while McLeod Bethel-Thompson was 9 of 16 for 99 yards with one INT and one TD.) The Roughriders are sizeable favorites here and they’ll be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd after last week’s tight 44-41 setback at Ottawa (the Riders conceded 447 yards of offense, while producing 468. QB Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 for two TD’s and no INTs). I have a hard time seeing the Argos fixing all of their problems in a week. Saskatchewan has issues as well, but Fajardo is so far fitting in seamlessly for the injured Zach Collaros and I believe his progression continues in this favorable matchup. When you add it all up, I think this has “shootout” written all over it. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 35-23 Riders |
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07-01-19 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Jays UNDER (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Glen Sparkman is 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA this season for the Royals, while Clayton Richard is 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA for Toronto. The Royals exploded for a 7-6 victory last night, but I think it’ll be a much lower-scoring affair in the finale on Canada Day this afternoon. Sparkman has faced the Jays once and he’d give up two runs over four innings and his team won 6-2 last season. Richard has struggled somewhat of late, but note that he owns a 3.91 ERA in eight career games vs. KC. Note that KC has already seen the total go under the number in all four games it’s played in this year following a one run victory, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in 11 of 15 as a home favorite in the -110 to -150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Jays. |
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06-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -102 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (8*) After winning the first two of this three game series, I think the visitors take a step back here. Robbie Ray gets the call for the D-Backs and he’s so far 5-5 with a 3.90 ERA. The home side hands the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 4-7 with a 4.21 ERA. While Ray has had plenty of success vs. the Giants in the past, he enters in terrible form currently, going 0-2 in his last three starts while getting rocked for 11 runs off 13 hits spanning 18 frames of work. Bumgarner has dominated Arizona throughout his career as well (2.58 ERA in 24 match ups) and I expect the wily southpaw to continue that success. Everything points to a slight upset in this one on Saturday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Giants. |
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06-30-19 | Rangers +194 v. Rays | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Texas Rangers (8*) I think that Rays’ Blake Snell continues to struggle on Sunday afternoon. Snell is 4-7 with a 5.01 ERA this season, while the Rangers counter with the red hot Jesse Chavez, who is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA. In five June starts Snell has posted an atrocious 11.94 ERA, allowing at least six runs in three of five contests. Chavez gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Detroit on Tuesday. Chavez enters on top form, having given up just one earned run over his last 15 innings of work, striking out 14 and walking one in that span. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I believe we’re getting unreal value against the over-priced Snell. Play on Texas. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. |
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06-30-19 | Cubs v. Reds -105 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (8*) Both teams have won so far in this three game series, but I like the home side to deliver the goods in the rubber match on Sunday afternoon. Jon Lester is 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA for the Cubs, while the Reds Anthony DeSclafani is 4-4 with 4.70 ERA. DeSclafani had his three start win streak come to an end last time out, but note that the Reds are a sharp 10-6 in their last 16 vs. southpaws. Conversely note that the Cubs are only 9-15 on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. I’m banking on the hungry home side finding a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. |
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06-29-19 | Mariners +255 v. Astros | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Mariners (10* TRADE-MARK) The Astros won the opener of this three-game set 2-1 in ten innings last night, but I like the visitors to bounce back in Game 2. Justin Verlander is 10-3 with a 2.67 ERA for the Astros, while Yusei Kikuchi is 4-5 with a 5.11 ERA for the Mariners. Verlander has had plenty of success vs. Seattle in the past, but I still think he’s over-priced here considering the recent “on again, off again” form of his team. Kikuchi comes in with momentum after winning his last start, conceding three runs and posting three K’s over six innings vs. the Orioles. I like Seattle to bounce back after last night’s near victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 M’s. |
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06-29-19 | BC +10.5 v. Calgary | Top | 32-36 | Win | 100 | 122 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: BC Lions (10* GAME OF WEEK) BC is 0-2 and Calgary is 0-1. Both teams are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and each has more questions than answers as the 2019 season gets going. Lions’ QB Mike Reilly is the difference here in my opinion, as he keeps his team competitive; so far he has 473 passing yards through tow games. Calgary had a Week 2 “bye” and I think that rest will lead to rust. In Week 1 the Stamps were upset 32-28 by the Ottawa RedBlacks as ten-point favorites. There’s no way that BC goes down without a fight as it looks to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Outright upset? Probably not, but I think this will be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. T.M. Prediction: 28-25 Stamps |
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06-29-19 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rangers/Rays over (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Brendan McKay makes his MLB debut tonight for the Rays. McKay was called up after the Rays 5-2, 18-inning win over the Twins on Thursday out of necessity. Tampa will be eager to return to form here after getting shutout 5-0 last night. The Rays have now lost 12 of their last 17. Texas looks to keep the good times rolling as it comes in having won six straight. Adrian Sampson is 6-4 with a 4.14 ERA for the visitors and he’s been hit or miss this year. Note that Texas has seen the total go over in 17 of 28 this season vs. teams with winning records, while Tampa has seen the total soar over in 13 of 20 this year at home when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Rangers. |
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06-29-19 | Peru v. Uruguay -135 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -135 | 74 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Uruguay (-135 5-Dimes, 10* COPA AMERICA GAME OF MONTH) I think Uruguay is worth the price to post a victory in regulation this afternoon. Uruguay won Group C with a 2-1-0 record, getting by Chile 1-0 in its last group game. Peru was third in Group A, but managed to advance as one of the two “best” third-place countries. Colombia just lost to Chile yesterday, which makes Uruguay’s victory that much more impressive obviously. Peru on the other hand is coming off a humbling 5-0 loss to Brazil and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well. All things considered, I think that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay it. T.M. Prediction: 3-0 Uruguay. |
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06-29-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +125 | 17-13 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This two game series is being played in London and I think the Red Sox offer great value here to post the slight upset in Game 1. Masahiro Tanaka is 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA this year for the Yanks, while Rick Porcello is 5-7 with a 4.52 ERA for the Red Sox. New York has a nine game lead over Boston, so clearly the Red Sox will be motivated here. Note that Porcello comes in on top form in that he hasn’t allowed a single home run in his last three starts (in fact Porcello has pitched at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 trips to the hill.) Porcello is 10-9 with a 3.32 ERA in 23 career starts vs. New York. Tanaka is 8-4 in 18 career starts vs. Boston, but with an elevated 4.85 ERA. I like Porcello in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. |
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06-28-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +175 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 175 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* CA$H BOMB) The Dodgers rallied late in last night’s game, but I think the home side will bounce back here, despite having to face LA’s ace Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.27 ERA leads the league, but Coors Field is the “great equalizer” when it comes to pitching. Certainly the home side will be motivated here. Antonio Senzatela gets the nod for the home side and he’s 6-5 with a 4.91 ERA this year. Senzatela is 1-0 with a 4.73 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Dodgers, while Ryu is a poor 4-6 with a 4.61 ERA vs. the Rockies, including a disastrous 1-3 with a 7.56 ERA in four starts at Coors. The writing is on the wall and a big upset is in the cards on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Rockies. |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds +102 | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds (8*) Chicago overcame a five-run deficit to knock off the Braves 9-7 last night, but overall the Cubs have been scuffling of late. This is the opener of a nine-game road trip before the all star break for Chicago and I think it’ll stumble in the opener vs. the Reds’ Sonny Gray. Gray is 3-5 with a 4.03 ERA overall this yearend he’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career outings vs. the Cubs. Chicago starter Cole Hamels is 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA and while he’s enjoyed plenty of success vs. the Reds in the past, I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Hamels has been superb, but I think his early sparkling numbers are unsustainable and I expect regression sooner than later (and if we dig a little deeper, we find that that regression has already begun, as the veteran received his second straight no-decision last time out by allowing three runs over seven innings to the Mets.) Chicago is a terrible 9-14 on the road when the money line in the game is set between -125 and +125 this season as well. Great value on the hungry home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Reds. |
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06-28-19 | Braves +105 v. Mets | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Braves (8*) Despite giving up five runs to the Cubs in a 9-7 loss in the latter frames last night, I like the Braves to come out firing in the opener of this one as they’ll look to kick the Mets while they’re down. The home side goes with Jacob deGrom, who is 4-6 with a 3.25 ERA, while the first placed visitors go with Mike Soroka, who is 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA. The Mets lost on Thursday as well and they now return home off a disastrous 3-8 road trip. Atlanta on the other hand is still 4.5 games ahead of Philly for the division lead despite yesterday’s setback. I think the pitchers are a “wash,” which I believe swings the value in in favor of the hungry and more talented underdog. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Braves. |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +162 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies (10* TRADE-MARK) It’s difficult to say anything negative about the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler, who is 8-1 with a 2.96 ERA so far this season, so I won’t bother. The Rockies have lost 11 straight in this series dating back to last season and I think that string of futility finally comes to an end here. Rockies’ rookie starter Peter Lambert, who is 2-0 with a 5.85 ERA, has looked sharp in three of his four starts this season. Note as well that the Rockies are 15-8 (+9.2 units) already this season after three consecutive games vs. a division rival. I expect Colorado to finally get off the schneid in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. |
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06-27-19 | Nationals v. Marlins +185 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Marlins (8* SPECIAL) Washington’s dominated the first two games of this series and while Stephen Strasburg, who is 8-4 with a 3.79 ERA so far this year, has enjoyed success vs. Miami in the past, I think his team has a letdown here vs. the hungry home side. Yes Sandy Alcantara, who is 4-6 with a 3.51 ERA, has struggled vs. the Nationals throughout his career, but who has been his best at home with a very respectable 3.10 ERA so far. Washington’s still a poor 6-7 (-7.7 units) as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range this season. Great line value on the desperate home side. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Fish. |
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06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 10.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Mariners/Brewers under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Seattle’s won six of its last seven. The M’s have averaged 7.4 runs over that stretch, but I expect more of a pitchers duel between these interleague foes on Thursday afternoon. Seattle’s turned things around of late by going 6-1 in its last seven, thanks to some big production at the plate, but I think it’ll have its hands full Chase Anderson, who is 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA thus far. Anderson comes in highly focused here after going 0-2 over his last four starts. Mike Leake of the Mariners is 7-6 with a 4.54 ERA and he enters on top form, having gone 4-0 over his past five starts. I think the situation points to a lower-scoring under on Thursday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mariners. |
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06-27-19 | Rangers v. Tigers -103 | 3-1 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (8* MONEY-MAKER) I like the Tigers to finally break their six-game slide here. The home side goes with Spencer Turnbull, who is 3-7 with a 3.29 ERA overall and while he’s struggled in Detroit, I still think he’ll get the better of his erratic counterpart Ariel Jurado, who is 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA and who has given up 11 runs over his last two outings (nine frames of work.) Texas is just 2-6 (-4 units) this year after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. Look for the hungry home side to turn the tables on Thursday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tigers. |
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