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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-04-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Leafs/Bruins OVER. So far these teams have played to some lower-scoring defensive battles, but now here with everything on the line, I expect some pucks to finally start finding the back of the net. Great goaltending and defense overall, so it's difficult to point to any defensive faults from either side, but this is just a great situational play. As note that Boston has seen the total eclipse the number in 7 of its last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight unders in a row. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Boston. |
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05-04-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets OVER 207.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wolves/Nuggets OVER (MONEY-MAKER) Two of the best teams in the West collide here in Game 1 of this second round Western Conference game and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks to say the least. Minnesota rolls in with a ton of confidence here after dispatching the Suns in four straight. They combined to score 248 points over the final two games and everything points to this offensive momentum getting carried over here. Yes, this is in the thin air of Denver, but the Wolves will be rested and pushing hard to earn a split. Look for this faster-paced affair to fly well over. T.M. Prediction: 116-112 Denver. |
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05-03-24 | Clippers +8 v. Mavs | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers (WEST-CONF GOW) Yes, Dallas blew out LA 123-93 on the road in Game 5, but I think that the Clippers are too talented and too deep to go down without a fight here in Game 6. They're well coached as well. Also note that the Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Dallas has been inconsistent with its effort and its hard to imagine it looking past LA or anything like that, but the stage is definitely set for a much tighter affair than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. So I'm going to grab the points! T.M. Prediction: 105-104 Dallas. |
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05-03-24 | Blue Jays -171 v. Nationals | 3-9 | Loss | -171 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jays. toronto lost two of three at home to KC this week, but this is a starting pitching matchup that definitely favors them highly here. In fact, this starting pitching talent discrepancy makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Toronto goes with Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.94 ERA), while the Nats counter with Patrick Corbin (0-3, 6.82.) No need to look any further than the starting pitching match up here. Lay the price with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Toronto. |
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05-02-24 | Bruins +100 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins (TRADE-MARK) Toronto managed the 2-1 OT win in Game 5, but the Bruins still lead 3-2. Boston failed to close out in Game 5, but I think it'll bounce back here and get ready for the next round. Toronto has looked anything but impressive during this series. Boston on the other hand is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an oppoent. I say Boston avoids a Game 7 back at home and closes out Toronto in six games. Great value here overall for sure. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Boston. |
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05-01-24 | Yankees +1.5 v. Orioles | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Yankees runline (MONEY-MAKER) After dropping the first two games of this series (2-0, 4-2), I like the Yankees to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the cover on the spread option. New York is in fact 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight divisional losses in a row to an opponent. The bottom line here though is that I feel that Luis Gil (1-1, 4.01 ERA), can match Corbin Burnes (3-0, 2.55) inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value invariably swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's the case here for sure in my opinion! T.M. Prediction: 5-3 New York. |
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04-30-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -159 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins (TRADE-MARK) The Bruins were upset in the first round last year and they're going to make sure that doesn't happen again by closing out this series here vs. the Leafs here and now. Toronto has struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Bruins all year, as Boston has won nine of the last ten in the series. With a chance to close out this series tonight and get some rest before the next round, the value here does for sure lie with the Bruins in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Boston. |
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04-29-24 | Phillies -132 v. Angels | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phillies (IL BLOWOUT) Philly is 19-10 this year, including 9-4 on the road, while LA is 10-18 overall, including 3-9 at home. This one for me though 100% comes down to the starting pitchers, as Cristopher Sanchez is 1-3 with a 2.96 ERA for the Phillies, while Griffin Canning is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA for the Angels. LA is dealing with several injury issues, while Philadelphia is hitting its stride right now. I say that Sanchez is well worth the price of admission tonight. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Philadelphia. |
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04-28-24 | Cubs v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Reds Sox under. The first two games of this series have flown well over the number, but we can expect a much tighter pitchers duel here in the finale of this IL contest in my opinion. The Red Sox have now seen the total go over the number in three straight after last night's 17-0 blowout win, but note that Boston has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight overs in a row. The Cubs have also seen the total go under in five of their last six in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Cubs go with Hayden Wesneski, who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.16 WHIP, while the home side goes with Tanner Houck, who is 3-2 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. With these two starters going deep like I suspect, the under is the correct call for sure as far as the total is concerned. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Boston. |
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04-27-24 | Pirates v. Giants -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Giants. San Francisco has won three of its last four and I think it'll keep that momentum rolling for at least one more game here at home in another favorable starting pitching matchup. The Giants won the opener 3-0, but they're still just 13-14. Pittsburgh is now 13-14 and it's lost three straight. Pittsburgh goes with Martin Perez (1-1, 3.45 ERA) while the home side counters with Jordan Hicks (2-0, 1.61.) look for Hicks to take advantage of familiar surroundings and lay this price with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 San Francisco. |
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04-27-24 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs -112 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Leafs. This has been a back-and-forth series and I expect this pattern to contine here after Boston won Game 3 by a score here of 4-2. Note that Toronto though is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. These teams are evenly matched, but I believe Toronto will indeed respond in this position like it has 70% of the time over the L10 such instances. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Toronto. |
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04-27-24 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | Top | 89-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Magic. The bottom line here is that I think that the home court advantage will prove crucial in this series. That's so far been the case, with Cleveland winning big in each of the first two games, before Orlando answering in the 121-83 Game 3 victory. I often find that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying "momentum" into a line, and that's the case here for sure, as I do indeed look for the Magic to build off their recent blowout performance. T.M. Prediction: 104-96 Orlando. |
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04-26-24 | Wolves v. Suns -4 | Top | 126-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Suns (MONEY-MAKER) Just not counting out Phoenix yet. This is the Suns most important game of the year so far and while they were a complete disaster in Minnesota over the first two games, I believe they can get their act together here now at home in Game 3 and not only win this game, but do so by a sizeable margin. This series very much has the same feeling to me as the Cavs/Magic series. Home court advantage clearly was big for Cleveland for Orlando after the Magic blew out the Cavs in Game 3, after dropping the first two on the road. Look for this series here out on the West Coast to take a similar path. T.M. Prediction: 109-98 Phoenix. |
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04-25-24 | Panthers v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Panthers/Lightning OVER. While the first two games went well under the posted number in Florida's back-to-back 3-2 victories, I believe we'll see a much faster-paced contest now with the shift in venue and with the Lightning's collective backs against the wall so to speak. Tampa has in fact seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. There have been over 100 shots so far in this series, and the "dam is about to burst" finally in my opinion. This number is low for sure here in Game 3. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Tampa. |
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04-24-24 | Kings v. Oilers UNDER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kings/Oilers UNDER. The first game went well over the number, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive affair here now though in Game 2. The Oilers won 7-4, but note that LA has seen the total dip under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a two goals or greater road loss vs. an opponent. I think Cam Talbot will bounce back fine here. Stuart Skinner will be able to match his counterpart. The general betting public is quick to back this as being another high-scoring affair, but I say the value lies the other way now. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Edmonton. |
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04-24-24 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Thunder | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pelicans. The Pelicans almost won Game 1 without Zion outright and I believe they have a legit shot to, at the very least, duplicate that performance and make this Game 2 another "nail biter" for the fans. The Thunder looked poor overall in my opinion, as the Pelicans shot horribly. I'd say that OKC's defensive numbers from Game 1 are skewed, and that it was the Pels just having a really poor shooting game, despite Williamson being sidelined. The Thunder have little experience at this level and I think they'll struggle to put New Orleans away in this series. Maybe no outright, but definitely it's going to be closer than what this spread is suggesting. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 OKC. |
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04-24-24 | Mariners +107 v. Rangers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mariners. The Mariners are playing really well right now and getting good contributions from their bullpen and starting rotations. The Rangers are trending in the opposite direction. I say the general betting public is quick to back the Rangers still, but the real value in this particular matchup lies with the visitors. Bryce Miller is 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA for the Mariners, while Jon Gray is 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA for the Rangers. Look for Seattle to continue surge, and for Texas to continue to struggle. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Seattle. |
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04-23-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals +109 | 2-3 | Win | 109 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Royals. KC has now lost three straight after falling 5-3 in last night's series opener. However, I like the Royals to finally bounce back here and for Toronto to now take a step back. The Jays have won three of their last four, but KC is 7-3 still in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Jays' starter Kevin Gausman looked much better in his last start, but he's still just 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA this season. I'm giving the big nod to Michael Wacha at home here. Wacha is 1-2 with a 3.75 ERA and in my opinion, the Royals should in fact be favored. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Kansas City. |
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04-22-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Lakers. The Lakers had a three-point lead at half-time in Game 1, but then fell 114-103. LA has responded well in this spot for bettors though by going 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. a Western Conference opponent though. This has been a terrible matchup for LeBron and AD, but I think they'll be more efficent here, especially from range. Look for the sense of urgency in which the Lakers play with to be enough to earn the comfortable cover. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver. |
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04-22-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -134 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins. Both teams have struggled in the playoffs the last few years, but that said, I think that Boston will build off its 5-1 Game 1 victory with another convincing one here at home in Game 2. This series very much appears that "home ice" will prove pivotal for these clubs. Toronto struggled in every facet of the game and I can't see it cleaning everything up so quickly here. Look for Boston to take care of business here as this is truly awesome line value in my estimation. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Boston. |
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04-22-24 | Phillies v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Reds under. Two teams that are doing well in the National League right now collide. Philadelphia is 14-8, while Cincinnati is 12-9. We don't have to look any further than these starters though to get to the bottom of why I really like this pick. Ranger Suarez is 3-0 witha 1.73 ERA for the Phillies and out to the best start of his career. He'll be opposed by Hunter Greene, who is 0-1 with 4.35 ERA. Look for these two starters to battle deep and for this total to ultimately fall well below the posted total. T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Philly. |
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04-21-24 | Pelicans v. Thunder -8 | Top | 92-94 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Thunder. No need to overthink or overanalyze this release in my opinion. The Pels did great to get by the Kings to advance without Zion Williamson, as New Orleans has gone 6-0 vs. Sacramento this season. But now I fully expect the Pels to come up short here in the opener of this contest vs. the fresh Thunder. OKC finished No. 1 and will look to make quick work of this series. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to take full advantage of this situation. T.M. Prediction: 116-99 OKC. |
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04-21-24 | Blue Jays v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Padres OVER. The Padres have dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect them to finally plate some runs here. Will that be enough to take down the Jays and their winning run right now? I'm not sure about that, but neither starter has been great and I believe each will "get the hook early" in this one. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.03 ERA), while the home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 6.29.) This one has over written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 San Diego. |
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04-21-24 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay Lightning puckline. While I do think an outright win is very possible, in the end I'll recommend to lay the juice for the visitors on the "puckline option." Tampa beat Florida here 5-3 in mid March, and honestly I would not be shocked by an outright upset here either. Both teams are really familiar with each other. Each is stacked with veteran lineups that have plenty of experience. In a contest that I could EASILY be decided in sudden death periods, I'm going to lay the price for the 1.5. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Tampa. |
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04-20-24 | Blue Jays -108 v. Padres | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays. The Jays have won five of their last six after last night's 5-1 series-opening victory. I like the visitors to keep that momentum rolling here. Jose Berrios is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA for the Jays. Randy Vasquez has been called up from Triple A to make this start for San Diego. Enough said! I think Toronto should/could in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Toronto. |
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04-20-24 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins. With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are really evenly matched. And for the most they really are. In fact, I'll admit that it would not be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to come out on top in this first game and in this series overall. But after the way the Bruins lost in the first round last year, I'm expecting Boston to come out super focussed on the task at hand tonight. And that'll be enough to turn the tables in favor of the home side in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Boston. |
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04-20-24 | 76ers +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 104-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers. I think this is a bad matchup for the Knicks. Philly finished averaging 114.6 PPG, while allowing 111.5, while New York averaged 112.8 and conceded 108.2. New York just doesn't have an answer for Philly big man Joel Embiid. While I do think an outright is possible, I'm grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Philly. |
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04-19-24 | Bulls +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bulls (MONEY-MAKER) Just giving this one the "eye test" here. Chicago is playing without Zach Lavine, but has already made that adjustment. The Heat losing Jimmy Butler last time out is really signficant. Chicago is out to avenge a loss to the Heat in last year's Play in as well. While I clearly think an outright is possible, I'm grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-100 Chicago. |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers. With Joel Embiid back in the line-up, the 76ers enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league after eight straights wins. I really love both of these coaches and understand that experience that Miami brings to the table. But this Philly defense is 100% capable of slowing down Jimmy Butler, and without their star being able to create space for himself, this Miami offense is going to be limited on the road in this diffcult venue. I smell a blowout in Philadelphia this evening! T.M. Prediction: 110-98 Philly. |
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04-17-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -114 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks. Neither starter has been great to open the year. Chicago hands the ball to Jordan Wicks (0-2, 5.68 ERA), while the home side counters with Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 6.48.) Chicago had its three-game win streak snapped in last night's 12-11 loss and everything points to another classic letdown here. Give me Pfaadt at home and this very reasonable price! T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Arizona. |
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04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -120 | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks. A great price here on the hungry home side eager to bounce back after yesterday's 3-2 series opening loss. Arizona is in fact 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a fav vs. an opponent as well! Tommy Henry is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA for the D-Backs, which clearly isn't great, but Kyle Hendricks is in all sorts of trouble here early on with an 0-2, 12.08 ERA and 2.37 WHIP stat line. Overall, the value here lies with the home side greatly in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Arizona. |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans OVER 224.5 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Lakers/Pels OVER. This will be a highly-competitive battle. LA has seen the total go over in four straight coming into this one, scoring 120 or more points in three straight, and I believe this offensive surge continues here. The Pels have also seen the total go over in three straight after falling here 124-108 to the Lakers in the final regular season game. Note though that New Orleans has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 New Orleans. |
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04-15-24 | Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers runline. Not only do I expect LA to win this game, I expect it do so in blowout fashion! LA has lost three of its last four. It won't be looking past this moment. But it all comes down to the huge pitching discrepancy on the mound. Tyler Glasnow is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP for LA, already battle-tested and rolling to start the season. Mitchell Parker is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and has been called up from Triple-A to make his MLB debut. He'll on a short leash. No need to over think this one. T.M. Prediction: 8-1 LA. |
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04-14-24 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres runline. San Diego has won three of its last four and it hands the ball to ace Yu Darvish (0-1, 3.86 ERA) who gave up four runs over three innings to the Cubs. He'll be opposed by James Paxton (2-0, 1.64), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Twins on Monday. SD's line-up has dominated Paxton in the past though, while Darvish has already blanked LA over 3.2 innings earlier this seaon. While I do think an outright is possible, I'm grabbing the visitors on the spread (runline) option. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 San Diego. |
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04-13-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +101 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 101 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona. I think we're getting really great value on the home side here that looks to avenge yesterday's 9-6 series-opening loss. St. Louis is 7-7 and Arizona is 6-8. Here are two veteran starters that have each gotten out to crummy starts to the season going head-to-head here. Kyle Gibson is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA for the Cards, while Ryne Nelson is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA for the D-Backs. Let's not overreact to either pitchers shaky performance to this point. With each starter "getting the hook early," this is going to turn into a bullpen game, and I give the advantage here to Arizona. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 D-Backs. |
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04-13-24 | Islanders v. Rangers -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Rangers. The Rangers are hoping to wrap up the Presidents Cup, and they won't be lacking for motivation here after 2 straight losses, including a 4-1 setback to Philly here on Thursday. The Isles have won six straight, but I suspect a letdown here finally. Look for the Rangers to lay down the hammer and get back on track and lay this price with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Rangers. |
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04-12-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays run-line. Toronto had its two game win streak snapped in last night's 6-1 loss here to Seattle, but I like the Jays to bounce back and not only win the opener of this IL series, but do so in blowout fashion. Colorado is 1-6 on the road and is just lost two of three at home to Arizona. Ryan Feltner is 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA for the Rockies, while Kevin Gausman is 0-1 with a 9.53 ERA for the Jays. Let's not read too much into Gausman's most recent disastrous start, as every starter in the league will have to deal with at least one of those types of performances over the course of a season. And with that one out of the way, I expect the steady Gausman to return to form here in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Jays. |
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04-11-24 | Pirates v. Phillies -138 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phillies Pittsburgh is 9-3 overall, including 6-1 on the road, while Philadephia is 6-6, including only 2-4 at home. The Pirates also got out to a huge start last season, and then crumbled by the half way point. Will that happen again this season? Maybe! Either way, I now think that the Pirates are getting too much respect here. Philadelphia took two of three at St. Louis and I like Ranger Suarez here at home over Jared Jones on the road. When you add it all up, I absolutely feel that the Phillies could/should in fact be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Philadelphia. |
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04-10-24 | Orioles +101 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-5 | Win | 101 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles. Baltimore snapped a two-game slide with a 7-1 win here to open this series and I'm expecting the Orioles to build off that victory. Boston is now having to deal with an untimely injury to Trevor Story, and that's already had an impact on the infield play. Last year Boston committed 102 errors and so far their struggling against this season. Cole Irvin is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA after a poor start to open the season, but I look for him to settle down here now. Kutter Crawford is 0-0 with a 0.84 ERA for Boston, but regression seems imminent to me. All in all, I believe this to be fantastic line value on the Orioles here. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Baltimore. |
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04-09-24 | Phillies -127 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phillies (NL GOM) Sonny Gray gets his debut start fot the Cardinals here. He injured his hamstring in Spring Training. The Phillies won the opener here yesterday by a score of 5-3 and I'm expecting a similar final result here as well. Philadelphia goes with Zach Wheeler (0-1, 0.75 ERA), who I expect will finally get a win here after allowing just one earned run over his first two starts. Great value here on the road side. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Phillies. |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut -6.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Connecticut. The two best team's in the nation collide here, but I believe that the defending champs experience, and overall better defensive play will prove to be too much for the Boilermakers to handle in crunch time, and because of that I expect the Huskies to pull away not only for the win, but also the comfortable cover in the process. Edey is countered by Clingan. Dan Hurley will have a plan to counter anything Edey can do. Look for UConn's defense to be the differnce in the end. T.M. Prediction: 80-65 UConn. |
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04-08-24 | Dodgers v. Twins +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins runline. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I think the value here lies on the hungry home side and the spread option (runline.) The Dodgers just lost two of three in Chicago, including an 8-1 loss yesterday. The Twins lost two straight at home to Cleveland, but had their game postponed yesterday, giving them an extra days rest here. Bailey Ober is 0-1 with a 54.00 ERA after allowing eight runs over 1 1/3's innings to the Royals in his debut. Clearly there's only one way for Ober's performance to go in this tart. James Paxton (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his second start after allowing no runs over five innings in a commanding start vs. the Giants. Like his counterpart, I'll argue that there's only one way in which Paxton's performance can go in this start. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Twins. |
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04-07-24 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rangers. A really great price here. Ronel Blanco is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.22 WHIP after no-hitting the Jays in his last outing, but now we have a major overreaction by the bookmakers and the general betting public in my opinion. I love betting against guys in their next start after they've thrown a no-hitter, and that's the case here for sure, as I believe the correct call is on Dane Dunning (1-0, 4.26) and the defending champs to deliver the goods at home at this price. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Texas. |
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04-06-24 | Oilers -155 v. Flames | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton broke a two-game slide with a win last time out, clinching a playoff spot. They're notw 6-3-1 in tehir last ten. The Oiler will keep that momentum rolling here now vs. the Flames, who are trending in the opposite direction, having lost two in a row and seven of their last eight. They've now been eliminated from playoff contention. Look for the Oilers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they go TOP SHELF on their in-Province rivals. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Edmonton. |
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04-06-24 | Hawks v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 110-142 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets. I'm not expecting any upsets here, as this one sets up well for Denver to blowout the visiting Hawks in my opinion. Atlanta is off the 109-95 loss at Dallas, but with three whole nights off after this before a home game vs. Miami, I believe the visitors will get caught flat-footed here in the thin air of Denver. The Nuggets won't be lacking motivation here after falling 102-100 at the Clippers as 3.5-point favorites last time out. Look for Denver, who has two nights off after this, to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. T.M. Prediction: 121-100 Denver. |
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04-06-24 | Blue Jays +100 v. Yankees | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays. The general betting public loves New York. I believe the Yanks are still overvalued here, especially considering hwo hot Kevin Gausman already is right out of the gates to open the season for Toronto. The Jays won 3-0 last night and their bullpen is still fresh. Gausman is 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.46 WHIP, while Clarke Schmidt is 0-0 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP for the Yanks. These are important early season divisional matchups, but I think the wrong team is favored in this particular matchup. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Toronto. |
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04-05-24 | Capitals +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Capitals. While I do think an outright win is possible, in a contest that I believe will be much more exciting and tight than what this spread is suggesting, I'm grabbing the visitors on spread option (puckline.) Washington is in a dog fight just to get in the playoffs right now, tied with the Wings for ninth spot, but just one game behind the 7th and 8th spots. It's a log-jam with just under two weeks left to go in the regular season. Carolina is in third. It's tied with Florida with 101 points. Regardless, it's the Capitals who will be risking life and limb here to pull off the upset. I say that'll be enough with the 1.5 goals to get us the money here on this one on Friday night. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Washington. |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat -140 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Heat moneyline. While I do think Miami will both win and cover the spread here, my official call will be to lay the price and just bypass the spread option all together. A great "situational" play here. Off B2B wins, and with games at Memphis and San Antonio upcoming, I say the visitors get caught looking ahead here. Miami is playing its best basketball of the season, having won three in a row and four of its last five, expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to find a way to get the "W" when the final buzzer sounds. T.M. Prediction: 109-100 Miami. |
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04-04-24 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hurricanes. Just a great situational bet. Carolina has had three whole nights off after a 3-0 win at Montreal. Carolina has won back-to-back games. It has a chance to put together another win streak here with a favorable schedule over the next few games, before then having to once again face the Bruins, this time in Boston on April 9th. Look for Carolina to take advantage of the "home ice." And for the Bruins, this sets up as a letdown and lookahead spot in my opinion. Boston is 3-1 on this current five-game road trip and off B2B wins and with Florida at home up next, everything points to the Hurricanes delivering in front of the home town crowd tonight. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Carolina. |
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04-04-24 | Pirates -120 v. Nationals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pittsburgh. The Pirates are now 5-1 after last night's 5-3 loss here. Pittsburgh won the opener to move to 5-0 by a score of 8-4, and with the clear pitching mismatch on the mound tonight that favors the visitors, I'm expecting a similar final outcome and lop-sided blowout for the Bucs as well. Pittsburgh goes with Martin Perez who is 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, while the Nationals counter with Josiah Gray, who is 0-1 with a 15.75 ERA. Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back and to seal the deal on another series in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Pirates. |
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04-03-24 | Guardians v. Mariners -153 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -153 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mariners. Seattle opened this series with a 5-4 win, before Cleveland bounced back in yesterday's 5-2 victory. Now here though on Wednesday, I think the visitors wil get caught looking ahead to their divisional game at the Twins starting tomorrow. Seattle on the other hand has to leave the PNW for series at Milwaukee and Toronto, putting added emphasis onto this contest. Logan Allen (1-0, 5.40 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while George Kirby (1-0, 0.00) counters for the home side. Give me Kirby at home at this price, as I expect Seattle to make the most of this situation and to find a way to cap off this home series with a victory. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Seattle. |
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04-02-24 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -127 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Las Vegas. Vegas has had a couple nights off after a 2-1 OT win at Minnesota. It went 3-1 on its road trip and now with just two weeks remaining, I'm expecting the Knights to take keep the foot on the gas. They play with revenge as well after a 3-1 loss to the Canucks here on March 7th. Vancouver is in Arizona for a much more "winnable" game tomorrow, and I think it'll get caught looking ahead. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Golden Knights. |
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04-02-24 | Georgia +4.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Georgia (MONEY-MAKER) While I clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Seton Hall is coming off a 9168 win over UNLV, while Georgia advanced by taking care of Ohio State 79-77. Georgia has covered in 11 of 12 away contests this year, while Seton Hall is just 4-7 ATS away from friendly confines. Georgia continues to get undervalued and that's once again going to be the case here. Outright victory?! That's possible of course, but my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. T.M. Prediction: 77-76 Georgia. |
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04-02-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jays run line. Houston avoided an 0-5 start by beating the Jays 10-0 yesterday. Houston threw the first no-hitter of the season, but let's not overreact here. Toronto is now 2-3 after splitting its opening series in Tampa, but I think the Jays offer great value in a bounce-back position here, with the general betting public now quick to flock back to their beloved Astros. That said, note that Jays starter Jose Berrios is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year already, while Astros starter Framber Valdez is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA (and 2.36 WHIP.) I think Toronto could win this one outright, but at this great price, I'll take the Jays on the run line. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Jays. |
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04-01-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks +113 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks. New York just swept the Astros on the road in Houston and I say it has a classic "letdown" here on the road in this interleague contest and in this difficult away venue. Arizona took three of four from Colorado over the weekend. Luis Gil is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in seven career starts but hasn't pitched in the Big Leagues since 2022. Ryne Nelson counters for the home side, and he went 8-8 with a 5.31 ERA last year. I think Nelson is the correct call here at home, as his upside is high here to open the season. All things considered, I think this is a great situational play. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Arizona. |
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03-31-24 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee. These teams met in Maui at the start of the year, and Purdue won 71-67. While I anticipate another tight affair here, I do believe the Vols will get their revenge this time around. That said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The Vols average 79.1 PPG, while conceding 67.3, while Purdue averages 78.3 PPG, while allowing 72.9. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever of these evenly matched sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 76-74 Tennessee. |
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03-30-24 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox runline. With nearly 80% of the early public money on the home side, despite the price, the contrarian in me is naturally pulled towards the Red Sox in this one. But oveall to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs is the correct call in my opinion. The Mariners offense has struggled so far. Kutter Crawford (6-8, 4.04 ERA last year) goes for the Red Sox, while the M's hand the ball to Logan Gilbert (13-7, 3.73.) Crawford is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the Mariners though and I believe he can match his counterpart inning for inning. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Boston. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3.5 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clemson (SWEET 16 GOY) In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Tigers simply keep getting underestimated, both by their opponents and the bookmakers in my opinion. Their recent win over Arizona highlights that fact. I really like Alabama, but it's weakness is its defensive play, and I say that finally comes back to haunt it here. These teams played back at the start of the year, and it was Clemson tha twon 85-77 in the ACC/SEC Challenge. While an outright is possible again, I'm grabbing the points as my official call. T.M. Prediction: 83-82 Clemson. |
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03-30-24 | Celtics -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics. After back-to-back losses to ATL, I like Boston to push the pace here and get back on track in this challenging matchup. Conversely, after winning three of their last four, including a 107-100 win over Milwaukee here last time out, I suspect a letdown here from the Pels. They lost 118-112 in Boston back on January 29th, and this is just a poor matchup for New Orleans. And that's especially true considering how "locked in" I believe the visiting side will be today. So lay the points! T.M. Prediction: 123-100 Boston. |
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03-29-24 | Mavs v. Kings -1 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings. Dallas has won five straight SU and gone 4-1 ATS over that span. That includes a 132-96 win here at Sacramento three nights ago. Note that the Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 99 or less points in. This is an important little three-game home stretch for Sacramento right near the end of the regular season and I believe it'll regroup here and avenge that setback. T.M. Prediction: 120-110 Sacramento. |
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03-29-24 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox/Mariners UNDER. I had a play on Boston on the runline last night, but did not even need the extra 1.5 runs in the Red Sox outright 6-4 victory. While the total flew well over the posted number, this second game here on Saturday night has all the makings of a classic pithcher's duel in my opinion. It's Nick Pivetta for the visitors and George Kirby for the home side. Pivetta was 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA last year, while Kirby was 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA. Kirby fared better in two matchups vs. the Red Sox, than Pivetta did vs. the M's, but regardless of that, I still feel the stage is set for a "duel" here after last night's "slug-fest." T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Seattle. |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue UNDER 155.5 | Top | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Gonzaga/Purdue UNDER. It's the No. 1 seed vs. the No. 5 seed. The Bulldogs rolled over an injured Kansas team 89-68, while the Boilermakers steamrolled Utah State 106-67. Each team was extremely impressive on each end of the court. I think whoever steps up and plays defense here will come out on top. Fatigue is now an issue for both sides as well, and public perception has helped in pushing this O/U line higher than it really should be in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 75-70 Purdue. |
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03-28-24 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Red Sox runline. With nearly 80% of the early public money on the home side on this steep price, I definitely feel we're getting unreal value here backing the hungry visiting side on the runline option. Brayan Bello finished 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA for the Red Sox, finishing strong after a slow start. Seattle hands the ball to Luis Castillo, who was 13-9 with a 3.34 ERA. I like Bello to match Castillo inning for inning and in a contest like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued road dog. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Boston. |
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03-28-24 | Alabama +4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Alabama. These are the two highest scoring teams left in the Tournament. North Carolina has the slightly better oveall defense, but the Tide have looked great here over the first two games of this tournament. The Tide have extremely efficient outside shooting and it's the toughest offense that UNC has faced yet. Bama and the points is the correct call in my opinion in this matchup. T.M. Prediction: 87-86 UNC. |
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03-28-24 | Kings v. Oilers -143 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oilers. This is a great spot for Edmonton. LA is off four straight wins, but I think finally has a letdown here facing the Oilers, and with a tough game at Calgary (and Winnipeg after that!), following this contest. Edmonton just nsapped a two-game slide with a 4-3 OT win at Winnipeg and I'm expecting it to make the most of this favorable spot, so lay the price with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Edmonton. |
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03-28-24 | Celtics -16 v. Hawks | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics. Boston is 57-15 while Atlanta is 32-39. The Celtics play with revenge after a 120-118 loss to the Hawks last time out, and note that the C's are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an oppponent. The Hawks will likely be in the "play in," but the Hawks have several injuries which makes Boston the correct call here. The revenge factor is the difference for me. T.M. Prediction: 127-100 Boston. |
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03-27-24 | Suns +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Suns. Phoenix is 41-30, including 19-16 on the road. Denver is 51-21, including 29-6 at home. The Nuggets have won four straight, but they fell 117-107 in OT to the Suns on March 5th, and I think they'll have their hands full here too at home. Phoenix had its three-game win streak snapped in a 104-102 loss at San Antonio, two nights after beating the Spurs 131-106 on the road and clearly getting caught "looking ahead" to this matchup. Phoenix is hungry to improve here and I suspect a very competitive affair in this one. So grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Denver. |
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03-27-24 | Senators v. Sabres -130 | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Sabres. The Sabres play with the double-revenge factor here after inexplicably dropping the first two matchups of the season vs. the Sens. Ottawa is off a 5-3 win over Edmonton, but I say Buffalo risks life and limb here to avenge those two setbacks and to finally take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Buffalo. |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +5.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: UNLV. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Rebels are off the 79-70 home win over Boston College, while Seton Hall beat UNT here 72-58. The Rebels' superior offense will keep them this game late. And with 70% of the public money on the home side, the contrarian in me is also pleased with this wager. While I wouldn't be shocked by an outright, my official call is to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 71-69 Seton Hall. |
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03-26-24 | Bruins v. Panthers -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Florida Panthers. I think that home ice advantage will prove to be the difference-maker in this one tonight for Florida. Boston is coming off B2B losses, and with another tough game at a red hot Tampa tomorrow night, I say the Bruins get caught looking ahead here. Florida does indeed play with revenge after a 3-1 loss to here to Boston back in November, and note that the Panthers are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Florida. |
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03-25-24 | Kings v. Canucks -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks are off three straight home wins and I expect that run to continue here. The last time Vancouver played LA it won 2-1 in OT on the road at the start of March, but I expect a bigger margin of victory here. LA has won three straight as well, but all at home. Look for LA to stumble in the opener of this trip, as ultimately I feel that Vancouver could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Vancouver. |
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03-25-24 | Hornets v. Cavs -11.5 | Top | 92-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cavaliers. After three straight losses, including a humbling 121-84 loss at Miami just last night, I like the Cavaliers to finally bounce back here at home in this favorable matchup and to take out their frustrations on the lowly Hornets. Note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 after 3 or more SU/ATS setbacks in a row. This is the opener of a home and home set between the clubs, so look for Cleveland to send the early message. T.M. Prediction: 115-90 Cleveland. |
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03-25-24 | Chicago State +4.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 74-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Chicago State. Fairfield advanced by beating UALR 82-75 yesterday, but I feel that it'll be "gassed" here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Chicago State though enters off a 77-75 win over San Diego State as a 9.5-point dog to advance and I think it keeps that momentum rolling here, as it's had an extra days rest. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 73-71 Chicago State. |
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03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State OVER 128.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yale/SDSU OVER. I like Yale to push SDSU to the brink. The Bulldogs are coming off a 78-76 win over Auburn as 14-point dogs, and there's no reason not to think they can't carry that offensive momentum over here. The Aztecs edged UAB 69-65, but the Bulldogs looked great from range in their win over the Tigers and I expect this offense to stretch the Aztecs' perimeter defense. This isn't a very high total obviously and this can still be a lower-scoring overall game and easily eclipse this super low number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. This number is MUCH too low in my estimation. T.M. Prediction: 75-70 SDSU. |
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03-24-24 | Canadiens v. Seattle Kraken -161 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -161 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Kraken. Two struggling teams here. I've been amazed at the early success that these expansion teams have enjoyed over the last decade, including the Kraken. That said, Seattle will now be desperate to snap a seven-game losing streak. Not for a lack of trying, falling 2-1 in OT at Arizona last time out. They play with the added incentive of revenge here as well after falling 4-2 at Montreal back in December. The Habs are playing terribly right now as well off four straight losses. They have a much "tougher" game at Colorado upcoming as well to end their road trip. I say they stumble here again as well. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Seattle. |
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03-24-24 | Cavs +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 84-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cavaliers. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Cleveland is in fact 21-13 on the road, while Miami is just 17-16 at home this season. The Cavs are off B2B SU/ATS losses, so will clearly be motivated. And they also play with the added-incentive of "revenge" after falling 107-104 as 3-point favs at home to the Heat earlier in the week, and note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a fav. vs. an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 103-102 Cleveland. |
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03-23-24 | Lightning v. Kings -124 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Kings. It's a great spot, and a great price to jump on LA right here tonight on Saturday. Tampa Bay is just 17-16-2-0 on the road, but after five straight wins, and with a game at lowly Anaheim tomorrow night, I say this sets up as a bit of letdown/trap game. Note that Tampa is just 1-4 in its last five after five or more straight wins in a row as well. LA is 16-11-2-5 at home. It's coing off back-to-back wins here by a combined score of 12-2. It plays with revenge after a tight 3-2 OT loss at Tampa at the start of the year. Great price and great situation, the play is LA. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 LA. |
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03-23-24 | Oakland +6.5 v. NC State | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oakland. I think that 14th seeded Oakland has a legit shot at winning this one outright. NC State enters as the 11th seed. Oakland upset Kentucky 80-76, while the Wolfpack beat Texas Tech 80-67. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are super similar. They've very evenly matched teams and matchup well. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line at times, and in my opinion, whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top, that's how evenly matched it really is. T.M. Prediction: 74-72 Oakland. |
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03-23-24 | Michigan State +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Michigan State. While I do think that an outright victory is definitely not out of the realm of possibility obviously which such a small spread (and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on they money line is a wise move as well,) my official call is to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Michigan State and Tom Izzo cruised to a 69-51 wiin over Mississippi State and I'm expecting them to carry that momentum over here. The Tar Heels had little problem with a tired Wagner, winning 90-62. But, while I'll admit this is a big step up in competition for the Spartans, it's also a huge step up in competition for the Tar Heels. Everything points to a "nail-biter," so I'm grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 72-68 Michigan State. |
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03-22-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Coyotes -108 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona. A great spot and a great price on the home side here. Seattle is just 14-13-3-3 on the road, while Arizona is 17-16-0-0 at home. The Kraken just lost 3-1 in Vegas just last night, and I think they'll be super tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Seattle returns to the PNW after this for four straight, so look for the hungry Coyotes to take advantage tonight! T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Coyotes. |
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03-22-24 | Grambling State v. Purdue UNDER 139 | Top | 50-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Grambling/Purude under. Grambling moved out of the First Four by defeating Montana State 88-81 in OT, but I think it'll be "gassed" here and overwhelmed by the size of the Boilermakers, who fell 76-75 to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. Purdue will dicate the pace and tempo and not allow the Tigers many second chances. This one appears to be a much more defensive-battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 83-57 Purdue. |
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03-22-24 | Stetson +26.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-91 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Stetson. Do I think that UConn is going to win this game?! Yes, I do. Do I believe the Huskies will win this game by essentially four TD's?! No, I don't! The Hatters finished 22-12, while UConn was 31-3. This is Stetson's first ever trip to the Big Dance, and clearly they've drawn a tough opponent. But Stetson looked good in its 94-91 conference tournament win over Austin Peay, and I expect it to carry that momentum over here. Dan Hurley's Huskies may very well repeat as Champion, but I think this one will be a lot closer than what this spread is suggesting. This Hatters offense can score with anyone in the nation. Look for the strong/easy/comfortable backdoor cover as this one comes down the stretch. T.M. Prediction: 80-65 UConn. |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington State. Drake finished 28-6 and Washington State was 24-9. Washington State earned a spot by finishing second in the Pac 12 with a 14-6 record, losing to Colorado in the semi-finals of the Tourney. Drake advanced by beating the Top seed in the MVC (Indiana State), to advance. Drake averages 80.3 PPG, while allowing 70.6, while Washington State averages 74.3, while conceding only 66.3. Drake lacks the depth that the Cougars bring to the table and that's the difference-maker for me. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 72-68 Washington State. |
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03-21-24 | Kings v. Wizards +11.5 | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards (NON-CONF GOM) The Wizards are in full on tank mode, but there are still plenty of spots where it makes sense to wager on them and grab up all the points, and this is one of those spots in my opinion. The Kings are coming off two straight victories, but after beating Toronto 123-89 last night, I'm expecting a predictable letdown here. Note that the Kings are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after a SU/ATS road win in which they held their opponent to 89 or fewer points in. The Kings have a much more high-profile game at Orlando after this and I think they get caught looking ahead. T.M. Prediction: 119-116 Sacramento. |
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03-21-24 | Long Beach State v. Arizona -20 | Top | 65-85 | Push | 0 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona. I believe Arizona will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. LBSU averages 76.5 PPG, while the Wildcats average 88. Yes, Arizona stumbled down the stretch, but the longer lay-off to prepare for this one will be the difference. Look for Arizona to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 96-67 Arizona. |
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03-20-24 | Colorado v. Boise State OVER 140.5 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado/Boise State OVER. These teams are looking to move on, and whoever does will face the seventh seeded Gators. Colorado was 24-10, and Boise State finished 22-10. The Buffs lost 75-68 to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament, while the Broncos fell 76-66 to New Mexico in the Mountain West tournament. Both sides are off disappointing low-scoring losses, but with time off to prepare, I believe we'll see a wide-open pace here. More shots = more points! Previous to losing, the Buffs had won eight straight! Colorado averages 79.3 PPG, and I believe it'll be the one to set the pace here. This number is low in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 75-73 Colorado. |
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03-20-24 | Appalachian State v. Wake Forest -6.5 | Top | 76-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest. I think the 27-6 Appalachian State Mountaineers won't be able hang down the stretch with the 20-13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the first round of the NIT. App Stae lost 67-65 to Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Championship, led by 15 points from Terence Harcum. Wake lost 81-69 to Pitt in the ACC Tournament quarterfinal, led by 23 points from Cameron Hildreth. Wake Forest is the more motivated team here in my estimation. It averages 78.2 PPG and the home floor advantage will be huge down the stretch. Look for App State to stumble in the second half and for the home side to extend with a big win and cover. T.M. Prediction: 80-65 Wake. |
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03-20-24 | Bucks v. Celtics -10.5 | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Celtics. I base my picks on many different factors. This particular one is based on the revenge factor. The Celtics are playing well right now as they enter having won six straight. They lost 135-102 at Milwaukee in January, and note that the C's are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 or fewer points in. T.M. Prediction: 120-107 Boston. |
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03-19-24 | Lightning v. Golden Knights -132 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Las Vegas. The Bolts have won three straight. They're off a big 5-3 win at their rival Florida though and with a game at San Jose up next, I say they get caught in a trap here. Vegas is playing better of late, as it's won three of its last four. It plays with revenge as well after a tight 5-4 loss at Tampa in December. Look for the surging Knights to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable home victory, while avenging the earlier loss at the same time. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Las Vegas. |
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03-19-24 | Richmond +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 58-74 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Richmond. Both teams lost to lower-seeded teams in their conference tournament openers, so each saw its NCAA Tournament hopes dashed. Now they face off here in Virginia Tech in the NIT. The Spiders finished 23-9 and the Hokies were 18-14. Richmond's loss to St. Joe's was the bigger upset clearly, as it was the No. 1 seed in the A-10 Tournament. "I think that a postseason appearance, more than ever before, is a great accomplishment," 19-year coach Chris Mooney said Monday. "We've already had a tremendous accomplishment, winning the regular-season championship. This is another opportunity to play in the postseason, to play at an ACC school we greatly respect." While I do think an outright is possible, my call is to grab as many points as you can. T.M. Prediction: 73-71 Richmond. |
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03-19-24 | Rockets v. Wizards +9.5 | Top | 137-114 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards. I think Houston will likely win this game outright, but it won't even come close to covering the spread. Yes, the Wizards are terrible, but Houston, despite winning five in a row, is still just 9-24 on the road. The Rockets return home for three straight after this, so this is a natural "letdown" spot vs. the lowly Wizards. Who do in fact play with revenge after a 135-119 loss at Houston just last week. Look for Washington to be much more competitive here here on Tuesday. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Houston. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wagner. These two teams got hot at the right time and won their conference tournaments. Wagner finished 16-15, while Howard was 18-16. The Bison though have a terrible defense and struggle with defending the rim. Something that Wagner does well. I think the Seahawks have a chance of winning this one outright. You may want to consider sprinkling a little on the moneyline here. Whoever wins, they're journey in the Big Dance will end in the next round, but this one has the "feel" of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. And so because of that, I'm grabbing the points for sure! T.M. Prediction: 65-64 Wagner. |
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03-18-24 | Capitals v. Flames -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Calgary Flames. Washington lost the first two games of its current road trip, but it's won the last two by identical 2-1 scores at Seattle and Vancouver. Now it travels to Calgary to end the trip, and then after this it has a night off before a tough Eastern Conference matchup vs. the Leafs, followed by the Hurricanes blowing into town after that. Calgary has won two straight. It plays with revenge after a shootout loss in Washington at the start of the year. The Flames have three nights off after this and they've won two in a row. This one ticks all the boxes for a great "situational" play. Oh, and as Bob Barker used to say: The Price Is Right! ... as well! T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Calgary. |
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03-17-24 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -155 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Illinois. The Badgers finished 22-12. They've had to win three games to reach the Championship game. That included a win over No. 1 seed Purdue, to reach the Championship game for the first time since 2016. The Badgers are exhausted and contents, while the Illinois will be all business after dispatching Nebraska. We already have a "blue print" as well of how this game will play out, as Illinois beat Wisconsin 91-82 on March 2nd. I believe this game will be lower-scoring overall, but the discrepany of winning margin will be even greater for the Illini. This is just a bad matchup for the Badgers; lay the price and take Illinois on the money line! T.M. Prediction: 80-70 Illinois. |
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03-16-24 | Avalanche v. Oilers -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oilers. Colorado enters off five straight wins, but a letdown is now imminent here with a couple days off before a divisional contest vs. at St. Louis. The Oilers look to take advantage here and are definitely priced right. They're off b2b wins, including a convincing 7-2 victory over Washington most recently. The Oilers have three straight at home to go before a lengthy trip, so expect Edmonton to risk life and limb to secure this victory, while at the same time all signs do indeed point to a letdown spot finally for the visitors; lay the short price, the play is Edmonton! T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Edmonton. |
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03-16-24 | Nottingham Forest +149 v. Luton Town | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nottingham Forest. Both teams are deep in relegation and in need of a win, but I feel this one favors the visitors. These teams are only separated by three points. Luton has struggled mightily this year defensively, allowing 55 goals, compared to Nottingham's 49. Forest is winless in this matchup in five games with three draws and two losses. Revenge is a dish best served cold though, especially on the road! T.M. Prediction 3-1 Forest. |
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03-15-24 | East Carolina +7.5 v. South Florida | Top | 59-81 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina. I like ECU to build off its 84-79 win over Tulsa yeterday. Rest leads to rust for the Bulls in my esimtation, who actually lost 76-70 to Tulsa in their regular-season finale. Off that recent common opponent matchup to compare, I think ECU has a legit shot at winning this one outright. That said, let's grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 68-67 USF. |
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03-14-24 | Suns +6 v. Celtics | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Suns. I really do see this one coming right down to the wire. Phoenix is a respectable 17-13 on the road. The Suns have won three of their last four, including a 117-111 win at Cleveland last time out. The only loss in that time came against the Celtics at home just last week, falling 117-107, and note that the Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss as a dog versus an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 114-113 Boston. |
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03-14-24 | NC State v. Duke -11.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Duke. NC State is the tenth seed, and Duke is No. 2. The Wolfpack finished 19-14, while the Blue Devils were 24-7. But after taking down Louisville and Syracuse, I say NC State's run in the Tournament comes to a resounding close tonight. The Blue Devils fell to UNC in their final regular season game by a score of 84-79, so they'll be extra pissed in this one (LOL!) Duke beat NC State in Raleigh back on March 4th by a score of 79-64, and all signs point to an even bigger blowout this time around. T.M. Prediction: 85-65 Duke. |
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03-14-24 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -6.5 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Michigan State. Both teams finished 18-13, but this is one that favors the Spartans here now in the Conference Tourney in my opinion. These teams played twice in the regular season and they went 1-1. The Gophers got smashed 90-66 by Northwestern in their final regular season game, while Michigan State fell just short in a 65-64 setback to Indiana. Look for the Spartans to carry over that momentum here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. T.M. Prediction: 75-60 Michigan State. |
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