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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -150 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Col Rockies at 4:35 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers are on the verge of advancing to the NLCS for the first time since 2011, after winning the first two games of this NLDS matchup at Miller Park. The Brewers took Game 1 by the score of 3-2 (10 innings) and then won 4-0 in Game 2. The series now moves to Coors Field and the Brewers take a 10-game winning streak into Game 3, going back to the regular season. In stark contrast, the Rockies are hoping a return to Coors Field after some extended travel, can help ignite an offense that has totaled a modest six runs in four games. The Rockies last played at home this past Sunday but then lost 5-2 on Monday in Los Angeles to the Dodgers in Game No. 163. That forced them to travel to Wrigley Field for the wild-card game on Tuesday, where they beat the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in 13 innings. A day off was followed by Games 1 & 2 of this series in Milwaukee against the Brewers. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Arizona lefty Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) going up against Colorado's German Marquez (14-11, 3.77 ERA). Miley made a pair of May starts, before going on the DL.He returned on July 12 and the team is a 'healthy' 12-4 in his 16 starts here in 2018. He hasn't suffered a loss since Aug 18 at St Louis but his last two outings have not been good (7 IP / & 7 ERs / 9.00 ERA). A positive note is that Miley is 7-2 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) against the Rockies in his career. Freeland has been Colorado's ace in 2018 but Marquez has developed into the team's No. 2 starter. He finished 2018 with a career-high 230 Ks over 196 innings and the 23-year-old did not allow more than three ERs in any of his last 13 starts (2.25 ERA), surrendering two or fewer ERs in 11 of those starts. In order to break Milwaukee's 10-game winning streak, Colorado's bats will need to 'wake up!' The Rockies have gone 2-for-26 (.077) with RISP over their four games this week, including 1-for-12 (.083) in the two losses to the Brewers. Overall in the NLDS, the Rockies are hitting .154 (10-for-65) with nine singles, one triple and 22 strikeouts. Colorado manager Bud Black told reporters, "I think playing at home can get us going. We still need to do what we have to do to win. We've got to pitch well and we have to swing the bats. We have pitched well (in Milwaukee) but we haven't swung the bats. Again, day off (Saturday), get back on the horse on Sunday and see where we are." Both starters will be making their respective postseason debuts, so it should surely help Marquez being at home. More than just being at home, Marquez should be full of confidence, with a 2.25 ERA and 118-17 KW ratio over his last 13 starts (88 innings). He's also limited opponents to a .204 average and .580 OPS in that span. NO sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -114 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right? Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point. However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that. Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s. Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8. Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s. Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3. The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 148 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST). Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco. After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5. Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight. The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend. The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory. Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Steelers | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory and I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Atlanta is 1-3 overall and it’s coming off consecutive home losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati. The Steelers have struggled as well this year, most recently coming off a humbling loss at home to the Ravens. Atlanta is 28th in the league on the defensive side of the ball, but it did look somewhat better in the second half of its 37-36 loss to the Bengals. The offense took a step back last year, but it’s now the team’s strength. Matt Ryan and company will be given the green light here today obviously to test this suspect Steelers’ secondary. The Steelers have been dealing with on field and off field issues all year. Note that Pittsburgh isn’t going to have star RB Le’Veon Bell back until Week 8 against Cleveland and his backup James Conner is averaging just 3.7 YPC. With such a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons’ defense definitely catches a break this week. I’ll point out as well that ATL is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs. Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week. The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground. Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG. Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range. I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | California v. Arizona -1.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 130 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona (10:00 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Arizona QB Khalil Tate has struggled somewhat this year, but I think he’ll have his opportunities tonight against the Golden Bears. Cal looks ripe for the picking here after its first loss of the season in a 42-24 home defeat to No. 19 Oregon. The Golden Bears would go on to commit five turnovers in the setback. Cal utilizes a two QB system, but both Mcillwain and Garbers struggled against the Ducks defensive pressure. In all they combined for two fumbles and four INT’s. Overall Cal comes in averaging 28.5 PPG, while conceding 25. The Wildcats are averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 28.4. Tate was 16 of 33 for 232 yards, two TD’s and one INT in last week’s 24-20 loss to USC. RB JJ Taylor remains a standout with 527 yards rushing and three TD’s so far (5.9 YPC.) I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after scoring 21 points or less in its previous contest. I like Tate to bounce back here. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia Tech | 45-23 | Win | 100 | 128 h 10 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame 8* (8:00 EST). Notre Dame is undefeated so far this season and I think the Irish carry over that momentum over at least one more game. Last week ND defeated a good Stanford team. Virginia Tech is 3-1, its lone loss was a big upset to ODU. In the victory over the Cardinal, ND QB Ian Book was 24 of 33 for 278 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. WR Miles Boykin had 11 catches for 144 yards. The Hokies were a 6.5 point underdog in Duke last week, but they ended leaving with a 31-14 outright victory. QB Ryan Willis had 332 yards and three TD’s. Note though that the VT defense is suspect, especially after allowing 632 yards of offense to the Monarchs just two weeks ago. I’ll point out as well that the Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, while ND is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a three games or more unbeaten streak. VT is still without starting QB Josh Jackson to injury. I think his backup is going to struggle against this focused and talented Notre Dame defense though. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | Yankees +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET. Chris Sale left the mound to a standing ovation and then waited along with anxious Red Sox fans while the Boston bullpen frittered away most of a five-run lead. I noted in taking Game 1 "over 7 1/2," that Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last 126 1/3 innings this season. Last night, five Boston relievers allowed two inherited runners to score plus allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings (that would be a 4.91 ERA!). However, Sale was able to savor the first postseason win of his career, after Boston held on for a 5-4 victory over its longtime rivals in Game 1 of the ALDS. J.D. Martinez hit a three-run HR in the first and Boston added more two runs in the third, which was good enough. Game 2's pitching matchup will feature New York's Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.75 ERA) up against Boston's David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA). Tanaka has been consistently inconsistent in 2018, as evidenced by him allowing eight ERs over eight innings in his last two starts of the regular season, after giving up just one ER over 21 innings during a three-start winning streak. All told, the Yankees went 16-11 in his 27 starts but his moneyline mark sits at minus-$490. Tanaka is 8-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 career outings vs the Red Sox but that includes him going 1-0 with a 7.58 ERA in four starts against Boston this season (Yanks were 2-2). David Price began slowly in 2018 but Boston won 19 of his last 23 starts. He finished with 16 wins and an impressive moneyline mark of plus-$1294 (Boston was 22-8 in all of his starts), which ranked 8th-best among all MLB starting pitchers. Price has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 15-14 with a 4.90 ERA in 42 career appearances (41 starts) against them. However, that include Price going 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts against New York (Boston was 1-3) in 2018. I noted in my Game 1 analysis of this series that Boston won the season series 11-8 and those games averaged 11.47 RPG (one of major reason I played "over"). I'm tempted to go over again here but while the total was just 7 1/2 Friday, it is 9 for this Game 2. While I'm not completely 'sold' on Tanaka, I will note that he is 7-1 with a respectable 3.47 ERA and excellent 0.98 WHIP on the road in 2018. However, the "clincher' is, just how can one back Price in the postseason? For all his regular season prowess, he's an abysmal 2-8 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 appearances. NINE of those have been starts and he's 0-8 and his teams 0-9!! Anyone about to say "he's due?" Not I. P.S. Don't forget about that AWFUL Boston bullpen! Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST). Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina. Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17. Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue. Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory. I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | Northern Illinois -3.5 v. Ball State | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 50 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Northern Illinois 8* (3:00 EST). NIU will look to keep the foot on the gas here after a 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. Ball State ended a three-game skid with a win over lowly Kent State last weekend. NIU took out EMU 26-23 last week. The Huskies’ defense is limiting teams to just 348.6 YPG though, which ranks 41st nationally. The offense leaves everything to desire, but NIU catches a break this week facing Ball State. Last week the Cardinals hammered Kent State 52-24, but the Flashes are just terrible defensively. So far Ball State’s numbers are skewed because of a dominant offensive performance against an FCS opponent to start the year. I’ll point out as well that Ball State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while NIU is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games against teams with losing home records. I think the Huskies’ tough defensive play is the difference in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | Boston College +4 v. NC State | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -102 | 120 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST). Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments. NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017. BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s. NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores. I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-18 | Syracuse -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 37-44 | Loss | -106 | 120 h 10 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Syracuse 8* (12:20 EST) Syracuse enters off a 27-23 loss to No. 3 Clemson, while Pitt returns home after a humbling 45-14 beatdown loss to No. 13 UCF last Saturday. The Orange average 44.2 PPG and they concede 21.4. Last week Syracuse took the loss despite allowing only one turnover, while forcing three. QB Eric Dungey so far has 1,013 yards with nine TD’s and two INT’s, while Moe Neal has 367 yards on the ground and two scores. The Panthers average 22.4 PPG and they concede 32. QB Kenny Pickett has 743 years, five TD’s and four INT’s (he also has 111 rushing yards and two more scores.) Qadree Oillison has 404 yards on the ground with four more scores. I’ll point out though that Pitt is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The Orange gave Clemson everything it could handle and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-18 | Utah State +2.5 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 107 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST). Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington. If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup. Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago. The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already. Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8. BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT. RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU. The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well. I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NYY/Bos Over at 7:30 ET. The Yankee/Red Sox rivalry ranks with the very best in any sport. New York won 100 games during the regular season but still needed to survive a one-game wild card playoff on Wednesday, which the Yankees won 7-2. That victory sends them to Fenway Park on Friday night to face the 108-win Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox set a franchise record for wins during the regular season and ran away with the AL East. However, it's "all even" now, as the first team to three wins will advance to the ALCS. The teams meet in the postseason since 2004, when Boston came from down 0-3 to win four in a row. The Yankees set a MLB record with 267 HRs and rank second in runs scored (5.25 per) and OPS (.781). Boston enters the postseason ranking first in runs scored (5.41 per), BA (.268) and OPS (.792). Boston won the season series 11-8. The pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) of the Yankees and Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) of teh Red Sox. Happ has been excellent for New York, going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts (Yanks were 9-2) after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays. He closed on a strong note, posting a 1.86 ERA in five September outings. Sale spent September trying to build up his pitch count and strengthen his shoulder after two trips to the disabled list. He struggled in his last two outings, allowing a total of five runs on nine hits across eight innings. How can one trust Sale, who has thrown just 17 innings since July 27 because of a shoulder inflammation problem? What's more, the Red Sox enter the postseason loaded with bullpen questions, as Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last126 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen took care of the last five innings Wednesday night against Oakland and ranked fourth in bullpen ERA (3.38) during the regular season. As for Happ, he surrendered nine runs - four earned - on nine hits over 9 2/3 total innings at Fenway Park this season. It should come as no surprise that MLB's two-best offensive teams averagaed 11.47 RPG in their 19 regular season meetings. That means I'm Goin' Over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Col/Mil Over at 4:15 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers posted their NINTH straight victory (24th in their last 31 games) with Thursday's 3-2 (10 inn) win over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NLDS. Leading National League MVP candidate Christian Yelich hit a two-run HR and scored the winning run in the 10th (on Moustakas' game-winning RBI), after the Brewers let a 2-0 lead slip away in the ninth inning. Yelich reached base four times (HR, single and two walks) plus stole a base in his postseason debut. The loss was just Colorado's THIRD in its last 13 games. It's Game 2 of the series late this afternoon at Milwaukee, as Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA). It seems as if Anderson was able to earn this start by scattering four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday to snap a 13-start winless streak during which he went 0-6 (team was 2-11). "I went through some struggles, but everyone does at some point or another," Anderson said in his press conference. "I was just happy that I was healthy, and I knew if I felt good and I and I stayed healthy and strong, I could find a way to fix it."That's a pretty optimistic outlook for a guy whose last win prior to last Sunday came way back on July 4. Chacin pitched in Monday's tiebreaker game against the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run on one hit (a solo HR in 5 2/3 innings before departing. The 30-year-old has had a "career season" in 2018, as the Brewers went 23-12 in all of his starts, giving him a plus-$1079 moneyline mark, which ranks 11th-best among all starting pitchers. Chacin played for Colorado from 2009-14. "Pretty much all the guys there are all my friends still, and pretty much all the coaches, too," Chacin said in his press conference. "It's special that I'm going to have the opportunity to pitch against them in the postseason, just happy that I'm going to have a chance to pitch against the Colorado Rockies." The Brewers only scored three runs in Game 1 but the team missed MANY chances, as they stranded 18 runners! That should change here vs Anderson, who was 'lit up' for seven runs and seven hits (including three HRs) over just four innings in a loss to Milwaukee back on Aug 4. Anderson is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in three career matchups against Milwaukee. As for Chacin, he's being asked to pitch on three days' rest and isn't Colorado's lineup overdue to break out? The Rockies have scored just two, three and two runs in their three games this week. Play the Over. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -124 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Hou Astros at 2:05 ET. It seems like MLB's newest 'toy' is to employ an "opener," a strategy (gimmick?) and it's already been used this postseason by Oakland and Milwaukee. However, the pitching matchup for Game 1 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros will have "none of that," as a pair of former Cy Young winners square off. For Cleveland it will be Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA), who took home Cy Youngs in 2014 and 2017, going up against Houston's Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA), the AL's MVP and Cy Young winner back in 2011 while with the Tigers. The defending champion Astros won a franchise-best 103 games in winning the AL West by six games over the Oakland A's. The Indians won a more modest 91 games in 2018 but had little trouble in winning their third straight AL Central title, out-distancing the second-place Twins by 13 games. Both starting pitchers own impressive numbers, along with his 2.89 ERA, Kluber owns an 0.99 WHIP and .223 BAA. As for Verlander, along with his 2.52 ERA, his 0.90 WHIP and .200 BAA stand out. That said, both pitchers have not been moneymakers in 2018 with the Indians going 21-12 in Kluber's starts (minus-$190). The Astros were 21-13 in Verlander's starts but his losses were much greater (minus-$928). Then again, both come in pitching very will. Kluber recorded a 2.80 ERA during his final starts, going 4-0 (team was 4-2) to reach 20 victories for the first time and strike out at 200 for the fifth straight year. Verlander was 3-0 over his last five starts (Astros were 5-0), posting a 1.09 ERA and a 50-4 KW ratio. Looking closer, after being a star in the 2016 postseason (4-1, 1.83 ERA), Kluber was awful in the 2017 postseason in giving up nine ERs over 6 1/3 innings (12.79 ERA). Verlander came up big for the Astros in leading them to a World Series title last year and during his career, Verlander has made 10 appearances in LDS contests (nine starts), going 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. I'm with Verlander in this one and will note that the Astros were 8-1 at home in the 2017 postseason. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST). I had a play on New England last week in its 38-7 win over the Dolphins. A short week is tough on both teams, but doubly so for the road side. The Pats come in off a confidence building win and they’ll be out to build off that victory and take advantage of this favorable spot against a dejected Colts team which comes in off a 37-34 OT loss to the Texans. The Colts rallied from a 28-10 hole, but in the end it wasn’t enough and after that heart-breaker, I don’t believe the team has had enough time to collectively re-group to face New England. QB Andrew Luck has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s so far, but he’s also been sacked nine times. Pats’ QB Tom Brady has 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He’s been sacked six times. Note that the offense gets a major boost here as well with the return of main WR Julian Edelman from his four game suspension. TY Hilton is listed as questionable for the Colts and if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder what type of form he’ll be in? I’ll point out that the Colts are a poor 12-15 ATS in their last 27 as the underdog, while the Patriots are a superb 29-12 in their last 41 as the favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on New England. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-18 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings +113 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Red Wings 8* (7:30 EST). This is a triple revenge game for the Wings, as Columbus took all three meetings last year. Columbus averaged only 2.88 GPG last year. Its defense was ranked tenth overall in allowing just 2.76 GPG. Sergei Bobrovsky was 37-28 with a 2.42 GAA last year and while he’s enjoyed considerable success against the Wings in the past, I think he’ll come up short here on Opening Night. It’s a re-building year for Detroit, but it does have many nice pieces, including Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen and Andreas Athahasiou. Jimmy Howard is back in net after finishing 22-36 with a respectable 2.85 GAA last year. He’s 12-11 with a 2.00 GAA lifetime against Columbus and he owns a career 2.38 GAA at home. With a game at home tomorrow night against Carolina, I think the visitors also get caught “looking ahead.” Great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog. Play on the Wings. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-18 | Predators -145 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (7:30 EST). Nashville won the Presidents Cup Trophy for best overall regular season record last year, but it would then lose in seven games to the Jets in the Western Conference second round. New York on the other hand finished last in the Eastern Conference. Predators head coach Peter Laviolette believes his team is ready to go all the way this year: “I think we’ve taken some steps in the right direction,” Laviolette assessed. “There’s some good things that we’ve done. There’s some positive things that we’ve done. But at the end of the day, it’s about winning that last game and being ahead until the last minute of a season ticks off.” The Predators will once again have one of the best defenses in the league as well, backed by one of the best goaltender in the league in Pekka Rinne. The Rangers’ No. 1 line consists of Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich. New York will remain somewhat competitive with veteran goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, but clearly it’s a re-building year for the Rangers: “It’s a honeymoon for everybody right now,” new head coach David Quinn commented. “I’m fully aware of that.” Note as well that New York is just 3-7 in its last ten at home, while Nashville is 4-1 in its last five on the road. The Predators offense is deep and Nashville is once again poised to make a serious run at the cup. Look for them to come in focused here and deliver the goods on Opening night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-18 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -153 | 2-1 | Loss | -153 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Hurricanes 8* (7:00 EST). Neither team made the playoffs last year and they split the season series. The Islanders finished just under .500 last year, and that was with John Tavares in the line-up. New York now has Barry Trotz as the head coach and it has plenty of weapons as well in the likes of Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle. Last year New York though would allow 3.57 GPG, which was last in the NHL. Robin Lehner struggled with the Sabres last year and I think he’s going to have his hands full tonight as well. Last season he was 14-35 with a 3.01 GAA, including going 8-18 with a 3.34 GAA on the road. Lehner is 0-4 with a 4.25 GAA lifetime against the Hurricanes. Carolina lost Jeff Skinner and Lee Stempniak, but it brought in Douge Hamilton and Micheal Ferland through trades. Scott Darling is now the main man in net. He went 13-28 with a 3.18 GAA last year. Note though that he’s 3-2 with a 3.13 GAA lifetime against the Islanders. While neither team instills a lot of confidence, I’ll point out that the Isles are just 2-8 in their last ten road games. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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10-03-18 | Flames -120 v. Canucks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Calgary Flames (10:05 EST). Calgary returns its top four points getters from last year, including Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, who combined for 55 goals and 93 assists last season. Mike Smith isn’t getting any younger, but the veteran net minder comes in healthy at least. The Flames haven’t won their regular season opener since 2009-10, so they’ll absolutely be out to end that drought here. Calgary struggled last year, but the Canucks were horrible with 31 wins and 73 points under coach Travis Green’s first year. Two of their top three players in terms of points retired over the off-season (the Sedins), so the onus to guid the team falls on players like Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat. Vancouver may have won its opener in four straight years, but that streak is poised to end here as it tries to find its new identity early in the season. The visitors have the veteran experience and superior goaltending and could easily be a bigger favorite in my opinion. Play on the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -126 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Payoff is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs took the field on Monday afternoon tied for the best record in the National League but after a 3-1 home loss to the Brewers, find themselves playing for postseason 'survival' tonight against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies also lost a one-game tiebreaker for the NL West title, 5-2 in LA against the Dodgers. Colorado missed a chance to capture its first division title in franchise history but the Rockies are in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 26 years! Tonight's pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) of Colorado and Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA) of Chicago. Freeland has delivered a breakout season, closing on a run of 11 consecutive quality starts in which he went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA (Rockies were 10-1). Freeland ended the regular season with MLB's second-best money line mark (plus-$1,486) as the Rockies were 23-10 in all of his starts. Lester is a 34-year-old vet and he went 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts (Cubs went 7-1), throwing six scoreless innings to beat Pittsburgh 3-0 in his regular-season finale.Lester didn't finish too far behind Freeland in the moneyline standings, as with the Cubs going 24-8 in his starts, he earned $1,415 (5th-best). The Rockies had won nine of 10 games prior to Monday’s loss, when they were held scoreless until the ninth inning. The Chicago bats were equally 'silent,' as Anthony Rizzo’s solo HR accounted for the Cubs’ lone run. Kyle Freeland 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts (Colorado was 12-2) since the All-Star break and has not lost since Aug 1. Those are impressive numbers but he is 0-2 in a pair of career starts against the Cubs (4.15 ERA). What's more, he's being asked to start on three days' rest. Lester may be just 1-3 against the Rockies but he owns a 2.25 ERA in those five career starts. More importantly, he's no stranger to October baseball, as he’s set to make his 26th postseason appearance, including his 22nd postseason start. In that span, he owns an impressive 2.55 ERA over 148 innings with a 124-39 KW ratio. Experience counts. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST). The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage. I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion. Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight. Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year. Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter. Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24. I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3.5 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 133 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* MAGIC is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over Tampa Bay, but I think it’ll take a predictable step back here. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, but it bounced back big last week against the Broncos and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has struggled so far this year, but he now faces a porous Pittsburgh defensive front which is allowing 122.3 YPG on the ground to opposing offenses. QB Joe Flacco continues to look great at times and poor in others. Pittsburgh managed to put together its best effort of the season in last week’s victory over Tampa Bay. WR Antonio Brown had 50 yards receiving and a TD. Ben Roethlisberger looked great last week, but he’s always had his hands full with the Ravens’ pass rushers. Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home and only 5-7 ATS In its last 12 against the division, while Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3. I think the Ravens take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 147 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST). I had a play on the Browns last Thursday night and I think they’ll keep this one competitive here as well. Cleveland comes in off its first win in two years against the Jets after Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor. Oakland on the other hand is ripe of the picking, dejected and still searching for its first win of the season. Jon Gruden is rich, but he obviously can’t be happy where his team is currently sitting. Last week Mayfield was 17 of 23 for 201 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but I think he’ll have plenty of chances today against this suspect Raiders’ secondary. Oakland has given up an average of 374.3 yards and 28 points on average this year. QB Derek Carr has averaged 312 passing yards per game, but note that he has three more INT’s than he does TD’s to this point. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot with 170 yards and three scores. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home. The Browns don’t have too many positive ATS stats after such a long losing streak, but as mentioned off the top, I do absolutely feel that the pieces are in place for Cleveland to continue progression across the board. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.) I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though. The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3. Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG. I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.) Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Lions +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here. Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990. Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR. The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7. Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense. Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT. Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record. Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST). It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch. Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games. Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records. These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 61 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under USC/Arizona (10:30 EST). Arizona has won back to back gams, including a 35-14 victory over Oregon State to open Pac-12 play last Saturday. The Wildcats will be tested by USC, which is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play. Last week JT Daniels threw for 241 yards and three TD’s in his team’s 39-36 come from behind win over WSU. After that emotional victory though, I do definitely feel that the Trojans are poised for a bit of a letdown this week. Tyler Vaughns was another standout last week with 64 receiving yards and a TD. The run game was strong as well, posting 155 overall. Arizona RB JJ Taylor rushed for a career-high 284 yards last week, and he had scoring runs of 62 and 40 yards. QB Khalil Tate has been turned into more of a pocket passer this year; last season he rushed for 1,411 yards and so far this season he has 73 total yards. But the Wildcats’ defense was the most impressive thing to me last week, holding Oregon State to a season-low 238 yards. Arizona had been horrible defensively before that, but it was a big step in the right direction and I think the unit has a big opportunity to build off that performance against what I believe to be a “gassed” Trojans’ offense. I’ll point out as well that USC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as an underdog. I think the stage is set for more of a defensive battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +6.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 49 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Western Kentucky 9* (7:30 EST). Marshall comes in off its first loss of the year in a setback against NC State last week. The Thundering Herd broke a three-game losing streak in this series last year, but I think WKU will bounce back and revenge that loss with its first home victory over the season. Marshall allowed 377 passing yards last week. QB Isaiah Green has been very lacklustre as well to this point, coming in sporting a 6/3 TD/INT ratio. WKU won’t be taking anything for granted. After a tough 0-3 start, the Hilltoppers now look to build off last week’s solid 28-20 win over Ball State. WKU’s defense has made big strides in just two games and I think that momentum gets carried over here. I’ll point out as well that Marshall is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WKU is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog in the same points range. I don’t think home field can be overlooked as a factor working in favor of WKU here either. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST). Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend. Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27). If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road. Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC. The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron. TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road. I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit. I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.” Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Hawaii v. San Jose State +13.5 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 106 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* DISCOUNT BLOWOUT is on San Jose State (7:00 EST). San Jose State comes in desperate as it’s so far winless to this point. Hawaii has so far exceeded expectations, most recently coming off a win over Duquesne in Week 3. In its last road game though Hawaii lost by a TD to Army. Warriors’ QB Cole McDonald had five TD’s and one INT in Hawaii’s win over the Dukes. In the loss to Army though the Warriors gave up 303 rushing yards and four TD’s. San Jose State has been downright terrible, especially on the defensive side in conceding an average of 525.3 yards per game. Offensively it’s been decent. Last week QB Josh Love had 237 yards, one TD and two INT’s in the loss to Oregon. The Spartans will look to take advantage of a complacent Hawaii team, as note that the Warriors are a poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after passing for more then 450 total yards in its previous game and only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against a team with a losing record at home. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to end a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Utah v. Washington State +1 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 105 h 19 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State 8* (6:00 EST). Utah played Washington two weeks ago and lost 21-7. It comes in off its bye and I think it’ll stumble here as well. Prior to the setback to the Huskies, the Utes managed just 17 points on the road against NIU. Utah turned the ball over three times in the loss to Washington. QB Tyler Huntley is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt with a 4/2 TD/INT. And that doesn’t bode well facing a Cougars defense which is allowing less than 160 yards passing per game so far this season. WSU QB Gardner Minshew already has 1,547 yards, 11 TD’s and just three INT’s over four games. The Cougars come in out gaining opposing teams by an average of 222.5 YPG. Note as well that WSU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at home, while Utah is interestingly just 5-13 ATS in it last 18 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in its previous contest. Huntley looks horrible this year and I think he’ll struggle to keep up to this high-flying Mike Leach offense. Play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Nevada +7 v. Air Force | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 103 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Nevada 8* (4:00 EST). Nevada enters off a 66-43 road loss to Toledo, while Air Force most recently feel 42-32 at Utah State. Note that this is a revenge game for Nevada after it fell 45-42 at home to Air Force last year. The Wolfpack is averaging 40.8 PPG and it’s conceding 39.5. To a Taua was a bright spot in the loss to the Rockets last week, posting 170 rushing yards and three TD’s. Air Force is averaging 32.3 PPG and it’s allowing 25. QB Isaiah Sanders has already rushed the ball 44 times in two games. Last week the Falcons’ defense allowed 489 yards to Utah State. I’ll point out as well that Air Force is just 8-24 ATS in its last 32 following a SU loss, while Nevada is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. The Wolfpack passing game ranks 28th in the country, which doesn’t bode well for this struggling Falcons’ secondary. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-18 | Army v. Buffalo -8 | 42-13 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Buffalo (12:00 EST). I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish, as I don’t think Army will be able to keep up with Buffalo’s high-flying offense. Army comes in dejected off a 28-21 setback in Oklahoma, while the Bulls come in off a confidence building 42-13 smash job on the road over Rutgers. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Buffalo after it fell 21-17 to the Black Knights last year. Army came up short in OT last week. The option went for 339 yards on 78 carries. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr had just 40 yards and two INT’s, but he had 125 yards rushing and two TD’s on the ground. The defense was decent, allowing 335 yards to the Sooners. Army has averaged 25.2 PPG and it’s conceded 24.2 so far this season. Buffalo has averaged 40.2 PPG and it’s conceded just 20. The Bulls had 445 yards of offense last week, including 182 on the ground. Jaret Patterson had 104 yards with two TD’s. QB Tyree Jackson had 263 yards and three TD’s last week and overall the passing game is ranked 44th in the nation. I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home, while Army is a poor 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS victory. I think Army has a letdown here after last week’s near upset. Look for Buffalo to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-18 | Braves -135 v. Phillies | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST). The Braves are waffling down the stretch and they just lost two of three to the Mets. I had the Mets in last night’s victory in New York as my underdog MONSTER. But I think Atlanta will bounce back in Philadelphia tonight with what I feel to be the far superior starter on the hill for it. The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz (12-10, 2.88 ERA) who hasn’t been perfect this season, but who is definitely putting together his best overall campaign of his career. Note that Foltynewicz has excelled on the road all year as well, going 7-6 with a 2.32 ERA. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-0, 9.00) who returns to the rotation today and will make his first start of the season because of injuries. Atlanta is in a dog fight for home field advantage and after its lacklustre series in The Big Apple, I’m expecting the team to play with much more desperation this evening. Note that Foltynewicz has a 2.08 ERA in five starts against the Phillies this year and he’s 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 career appearances against them. I love Foltynewicz in this spot, great value. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST). Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6. Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2. Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game. Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here. The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes. There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.) Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult. LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season. The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times. Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins. Grab the points, play on the Vikes. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-18 | Braves v. Mets +110 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG MONSTER is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they offer great value in a minor upset role here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (9-8, 4.03 ERA) who (like his team), has been waffling a bit down the stretch. He was 11-13 with a 4.49 ERA overall last year, so he’s made strides this season, but note that he’s still just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA on the road. The home side hands the ball to Jason Vargas (6-9, 6.25) who for the most part has struggled this season. He was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA while with KC last year. Vargas comes in off a decent outing against the Reds though and note that he’s been at his best at home with a somewhat respectable 4.38 ERA. Note as well that the Braves are a poor 21-23 (-2.7 units) against left-handed starters this year, while the Mets are surging to the finish line, so far 15-9 (+6.8 units) in the month of September. I think Teheran stumbles and I like the Mets to take advantage. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 104 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks 10* (9:40 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling (8-5, 2.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off four this over 3.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Overall Stripling has been great and it’s difficult to find too many faults with the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (14-11, 3.21) who comes in off a shaky start as well, giving up four runs off eight hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. Greinke has been grinding a bit down the stretch, but note that he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 6-4 with a 2.32 ERA. Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +125 range. I look for Greinke to continue his strong play at home. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-18 | Braves v. Mets -153 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:10 EST). Atlanta might have the bigger offense, but this is mismatch on the mound which favors the him eside. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits over three innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Newcomb has now failed to complete five innings in three of his last four starts and I think his regression continues here. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (9-9, 1.77) who continues to put up Cy Young like numbers and efforts almost every time he takes the mound. DeGrom looks to close out the season strong and take advantage of this favorable situation, as note that he has a minuscule 1.66 ERA in front of the home town crowd. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Newcomb is in for another long night at the end of the season here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin (14-8, 3.61 ERA) has been fantastic overall this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight (owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all night games.) The home side counties with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who for the most part has also been better than the the Cards were likely hoping for this season. Gant now looks to close strong and improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.46 ERA in all night contests. I’ll point out as well that despite being 90-67 (+17.5 units) overall, the Brewers are still just 37-38 (-4.2 units) this season against the division. The Cardinals are 87-70 (+5.3 units) overall, except they’re a sharp 40-31 (+4.8 units) against the division. I’m banking on Gant getting the better of Chacin. Play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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