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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-23-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OKC Thunder at 10:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers are on the verge of reaching the Western Conference semifinals after taking a 3-1 series lead over the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Portland is best-known as an offensive team but the team's defense has been equally important in building a 3-1 lead in this first-round playoff series with OKC. The Blazers have held the Thunder under 100 points in each of their three wins. That said, let's NOT ignore Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard (28.8) and McCollum (26.3), who have helped the team take a 3-1 lead. Lillard and McCollum combined for 51 points and 11 assists in Game 4, which was 34 points more than the Thunder's starting backcourt accounted for. Then there is center Enes Kanter, who has stepped in for the injured Nurkic to average 13.3 & 9.5, outplaying OKC's Steven Adams (Adams was held to six points on Sunday, his first single-digit effort of the series). Can (will?) Portland close it out there in Game 5? Paul George is averaging 26.8 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series but is shooting only 37 percent from the floor, including 30.8 from three-point range. Guard Russell Westbrook is averaging 21.3--8.3-9.8 but is shooting 36.3 percent from the floor, including 30.4 from the three-point line. OKC needs more form its complementary players as noted by backup point guard Dennis Schroder. "We've got to move the ball," he told reporters. "They're doing a great job playing (All-Stars Russell Westbrook and Paul George), but I think the other guys who were on the floor got to be aggressive, got to get the ball, make a play for somebody else or finish." That makes sense but if OKC is to win, Westbrook and George will have to come up big. Game 1 came down to the wire but then Portland routed OKC in Game 2, Westbrook was 5 of 20 in Game 2 but rebounded with 33 points and 11 assists in Game 2, a 120-108 OKC win. Westbrook was 5-of-21 from the floor in Game 4, including 0-of-10 in the second half, as the Blazers again routed OKC (George struggled with an 8-of-21 effort). No series pick from me but I expect OKC's "Big 2" will carry the day, here (watch out for Adams, as well). Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Nets +8.5 v. 76ers | 100-122 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Brk Nets at 8:05 ET. The Brooklyn Nets (+7.5) upset the 76ers in Game 1 by a score of 111-102 in Philly, as the home team heard boos coming off the court. However, Philly has recovered to win THREE in a row, including a 112-108 victory at Brooklyn in Game 4. "We were right there," guard Spencer Dinwiddie told reporters after Saturday's loss put the Sixers up 3-1. "We feel like we should've won. We weren't saying this was a learning experience when we won Game 1. So we can't fall back on that now. We need to try to pull off something incredible." To do so, sixth-seeded Brooklyn will need to keep its emotions in check following a contest that saw multiple ejections after a scrum along the baseline. The Nets have relied on the backcourt duo of Caris LeVert and D'Angelo Russell, who combined for 46 points in Game 4. Russell (22.3) is leading the team in this series, followed by LeVert (21.8) and fellow guard Dinwiddie (17.5). Center Jarrett Allen is averaging 11.8 & 6.3 and is coming off his best game of the season, going for 21 & 8 on Saturday. However, after shooting a league-best 47.4% from three-point range this season, Joe Harris missed all six of his long-range attempts in the Game 4 loss and is 0-for-12 in the three straight defeats, after making 3-of-4 in the victory in Game 1. He averaged 13.7 PPG during the regular season but is averaging just 8.8 in the series, while shooting 18.8% on threes. Joel Embiid is averaging 25.3 points (on 51% shooting), 13.7 rebounds, 3.7 blocks and four assists while playing about 26 minutes per game. He led the way for Philadelphia with 31 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists and six blocked shots in Game 4, after sitting out Game 3. He was limited to an average of 22.5 minutes through the first two games of the series and missed 14 of the final 24 regular-season games (not to mention Game 3 of this series). Is it possible Embiid could 'sit' tonight, or at least be limited? Let's not forget that the Nets were 8-18 through Dec 5 but went 34-22 from that point to finish 42-40 and grab the sixth seed. Brooklyn does NOT have to win here, to "get the cash" and note that Philly was just 13-17 ATS its final 30 regular season games. The bet is to take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Dodgers v. Cubs -108 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Dodgers opened the season 8-2 but then lost SIX in a row. However, LA has won SEVEN of its last eight and now is back atop the NL West by 2 1/2 games at 15-9. As for the Cubs, they opened the 2019 season 1-6 but are back to .500 (10-10), climbing back into contention in the NL Central, where the division's top-four teams are within two games of each other. Both teams come into this three-game series at Wrigley, playing like the NL pennant contenders they were expected to be. Kenta Maeda (3-1, 3.80 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Jose Quintana (2-1, 3.43 ERA) goes for Chicago. Maeda posted a quality start his last time out against Cincinnati, holding the Reds to one run on four hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-1 win last Tuesday. He's won three of his first four starts, allowing three runs or less in all three victories. Maeda is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs (Dodgers are 2-2). Quintana had a 'nightmare' 2019 debut (allowed 8 ERs in 3 IP vs Milwaukee on April 5), but has been dominant in his last two starts. He has 18 strikeouts over 14 scoreless innings, allowing just 10 hits and one walk in wins over Pittsburgh (2-0) and Miami (4-0). The Dodgers have won seven of their last eight games, outscoring opponents 34-21 since April 14. However, after a 3-8 start, the Cubs have won seven of nine games. Better pitching has fueled the Cubs' turnaround, as they have allowed two runs or less in five of their last six contests (see above for a reminder of Quintana's part in that). The Cubs outscored the Dodgers 35-23 in seven meetings last season and I'll back them here in the teams' first meeting of 2019. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -118 | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks meet the Pittsburgh Pirates for the second contest of their four-game series on Tuesday. Pittsburgh entered Monday's opener with a major league-best 2.54 ERA and appeared ready to hold an opponent to three runs or less for an 11th straight game after taking a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning. However, Arizona exploded for 11 unanswered runs to cruise to a 12-4 victory. The victory helped the Diamondbacks improve to 5-2 on their 10-game road trip and give them a 12-11 mark on the season (2 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West). The Pirates fell to 12-8 (.600). leaving them percentage points ahead of the 13-9 (.591) Cards in the NL Central. Luke Weaver (1-1, 3.92 ERA) will take the mound for Arizona, while Trevor Williams (1-0, 2.59 ERA) gets the nod for the Pirates. Weaver is coming off his first victory since coming over from St Louis in the trade involving Paul Goldschmidt. He beat Atlanta 4-1 last Thursday, throwing five scoreless innings while allowing only four hits with a season high nine Ks against just one walk. Weaver is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts / teams are 3-1) vs the Pirates. Williams has posted quality starts in each of his four 2019 appearances and while he owns just one win, the Pirates are a perfect 4-0 in his starts. That's really not something new. Including this year's four starts, Williams is 8-3 with a 1.68 ERA in 16 outings since last year's All-Star break, allowing more than three runs only ONCE! Expect the Pirates to bounce back off Monday's late-game collapse, as nearly a month into the season, the team's pitching staff has arguably has been the best in the majors. Williams has been great and it's good news that Gregory Polanco's return to the heart of the Pittsburgh Pirates' lineup figures to be a spark for what has been a lackluster offense. Polanco was 2-4 in his season debut on Monday,scoring twice. He's completed his recovery from shoulder surgery in September, coming off a season in which he hit 23 HRs and drove in 81 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Magic +12.5 v. Raptors | 96-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Raptors were shocked by the Magic in Game 1 of this series, as Orlando won 104-10 in Toronto. That shouldn't have been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history with the loss and to just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory and while he was less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness), he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Leonard led the assault in Toronto's 107-85 Game 4 win, scoring 34 points. As for Orlando, after making 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%) in their Game 1 win, the Magic have gone a woeful 29 of 111 (26.1%) from three-point range in three straight losses. Leonard is averaging 28.0 points in the series and said after Game 4 he is enjoying being back in the playoffs after missing the postseason last season while injured with the San Antonio Spurs. Power forward Pascal Siakam is averaging 22.3 points and nine rebounds in the series, following his excellent regular season. The Magic are averaging just 86.7 points during their three straight losses, scoring 85 or fewer points in two of the losses. That said, Orlando won Game 1 here and also won on the road as part of a 2-2 split in the regular season. Yes, Leonard's presence makes Toronto a different team in 2019 but the Raptors have NEVER previously won four straight in a playoff series. Expect the Magic to play 'loose' here and let's not forget, the Magic are getting about two 'TD' (excluding extra-points). Take those points! Good luck...Larry |
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04-23-19 | Marlins v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Run-line Rout is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians coughed up a late six-run lead in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader (8-7 loss) and then Atlanta scored nine times in the first four innings and handed Cleveland an 11-5 defeat Sunday night on ESPN. The back-back losses drops the Indians to 12-9, 1 1/2 games back of the Twins in the AL Central. Cleveland welcomes the Miami Marlins to town for a two-game IL series, as the Marlins begin a six-game road trip after winning their first series of the season, taking the first two games before dropping a 5-0 decision to Stephen Strasburg and Washington at home Sunday. Miami owns MLB's worst record at 6-16. Pablo Lopez (1-3, 5.85 ERA) will get the nod for Miami, opposed by Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 7.41). Lpoez won his 2019 debut (7-3 over Colorado on March 30) but has dropped three straight decisions since that time. In all fairness, the Marlins did not score in ANY of those contests. Still, the 23-year-old, owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his three losses. Lopez faces the Indians for the first time in his career. Carrasco "returned to form" in his last start, allowing three hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in a 1-0 win at Seattle . He opened the season by posting a 12.60 ERA in his first three starts. Carrasco pitched 7.1 scoreless innings in 2016 in his lone career start against the Marlins. I'm not all that concerned with Carrasco's poor start, as he comes in off years of 18-6 and 17-10. He will face a Miami lineup which ranks last in all of MLB in runs scored (2.73 per), 27th in BA (.215) and 29th in OPS (29th). The Marlins are 1-5 on the road in 2019, where they've averaged just 1.33 RPG. As for Lopez, Miami's gone 1-3 in his three 2019 starts and adding that to the team's 2-8 record in his 2018 starts, the Marlins have gone 3-11 in his 14 career starts. Note that just TWO of those 11 losses have come by just one run. Lay the 1 1/2 runs with the Indians. Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. James Harden incredibly missed his first 15 field-goal attempts and finished 3-of-20 from the floor but came through with a pair of thee-pointers in the fourth quarter and had no trouble getting to the free-throw line (14 of 16) while finishing with 22 points in Houston's 104-101 victory in Game 3. Harden scored 14 of his 22 points in the fourth quarter and added 10 assists and six steals in the victory. PG Chris Paul scored 18 points, Clint Capela recorded a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds and P.J. Tucker scored the last of his 12 points at the free-throw line to seal the win on Saturday. Utah saw guard Donovan Mitchell score a series-high 34 points in Game 3 but he missed a wide-open look at a three-pointer that would have tied the game with 8.7 seconds left. Overall, Mitchell was just 9 of 27 from the floor and he missed FIVE of his 17 free-throw attempts. Head coach Quin Snyder gave Jae Crowder the Game 3 start but he finished with just five points in 24 minutes. SF Joe Ingles is only 4-of-17 from three-point range in the series. One could look at this series this way. The Utah Jazz did about as well as any team can possibly do defensively against James Harden in Game 3, yet still couldn't come away with a victory. "We didn't capitalize as much as we needed to, especially during a stretch there in the third quarter where I thought we had a chance to build a little bit of a lead," Snyder told reporters after the game. "We got some looks that we had to take, and they didn't fall." The Jazz were understandably deflated after the game but struggling Donovan Mitchell promises he and his teammates will put forth an extreme effort in Game 4. "I don't think anybody is going to just lay over Monday," Mitchell said during a press conference. "I don't think that is going to be the case. I don't think that is what our organization is based on. ... It is an uphill battle, but we are not going to lay over and give them a game." Houston is in prime position to close out the first-round series with Utah but the Rockets haven't swept a playoff series since taking three straight from the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the 1997 postseason (that's more than 20 years ago!). The Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Here in Game 4, the Jazz are small home dogs, unlike in Game 3 in which they were a small favorite. Expect Utah to send this series back to Houston. Good luck...Larry |
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04-22-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -109 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Week is on the Car Hurricanes at 7:08 ET. The Washington Capitals won all four regular season meetings with the Carolina Hurricanes and then took Game 1 and Game 2 of this first round series. However, Carolina responded with a 5-0 Game 3 win and a 2-1 Game 4 win to tie the series. Last Saturday, the defending champs answered those consecutive defeats at PNC Arena with a resounding 6-0 victory at home in Game 5. The Capitals return to Raleigh (NC) on Monday, hoping to eliminate the Hurricanes in Game 6 of their series. Washington's Nicklas Backstrom had a four-point performance (two goals, two assists) in Saturday's 6-0 and has already matched last season's entire playoff goal total with five in this series (he has nine goals in his last 10 games, overall). Captain Alex Ovechkin collected one goal and two assists in Game 5 but he also made an impact on Saturday's game by stepping up his physical play with a season-high 11 hits.The bad news for the Caps is that T.J. Oshie (25 goals and 59 points in the regular season) is out indefinitely, after undergoing surgery on his broken collarbone. The Hurricanes could receive a boost from an anticipated return of right winger Andrei Svechnikov, who was knocked out by an Alex Ovechkin punch in Game 3. Svechnikov was in the concussion protocol but has returned to on-ice activities. He scored two goals in Game 1. Head coach Rod Brind'Amour said he considered pulling goalie Petr Mrazek in favor of Curtis McElhinney during Saturday night's lopsided loss, but decided against that switch. The Hurricanes have stuck with goalie Petr Mrazek throughout the series and will do so again here. Why not? Mrazek returns to Raleigh where he has turned aside 48 of 49 shots in the series! The Metropolitan Division was a crowded field this season. Washington won it with 104 points but four others made the postseason and 1st through 5th-place were separated by just SIX points. Carolina had 99 points, just FIVE fewer than Washington. The crowd in Raleigh has been a big factor in the series and you think home ice has mattered this series? How about this? The visiting team has yet to hold a lead in ANY of the five games in the series, so far. We are headed for a Game 7 in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5.5 | Top | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Orl Magic at 7:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors Lost Game 1 of this series, 104-101 at home. That could hardly been too much of a surprise, as the Raptors fell to 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. However, what is different this year is, Toronto has Kawhi Leonard. Leonard scored 37 points in the Raptors' 111-82 Game 2 victory. He was way less than 100% in Game 3 (dealing with an illness) but he still manged 16 points and 10 rebounds. Stepping into the void was third-year forward Pascal Siakam, who scored 30 points (a career playoff high) on 13-of-20 shooting while also collecting 11 rebounds in 42 minutes, as the Raptors eked out a 98-93 win to take a 2-1 series lead. Orlando won 13 of its final 14 regular-season home games but shot just 36.3 percent from the floor and committed 16 turnovers in Game 3. Swingman Terrence Ross scored a team-high 24 points off the bench, while center Nikola Vucevic scored 22 on 7-of-13 shooting. The Magic may have lost but Vucevic's return to scoring form in Game 3 was great news. He had averaged 20.8 points (51.8% shooting) and 12.0 rebounds during the season, but had averaged 8.5 points and 7.0 in the first two games of the series. His 22 points and 14 rebounds on Friday need to be replicated in Game 4. Staritng guards Augustin (Game 1 hero) and Fournier also need to play MUCH better, as in the two losses, the duo has combined to shoot 9 of 37 (24.3%). Orlando may be the No. 7 seed but the Magic went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. As noted above, the Magic won 13 of their last 14 home games. The Magic hardly played well in Game 3 but still lost by just five points. Expect a MUCH better effort here and remember, the Raptors (in their SIXTH straight postseason), are a "money-burning" 7-18 (28.0%) ATS on the road in the playoffs. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Reds v. Padres -135 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds beat the Pirates 5-3 on Opening Day but then lost EIGHT in a row. They came to San Diego to open a four-game series with a 5-12 overall record, including an 0-7 record on the road. However, Cincinnati has won each of the first three contests of this four-game series, outscoring the Padres 11-5. The Reds are sure streaky (won their season opener, lost eight consecutive games and then won four in a row, before dropping four straight right before arriving in San Diego), the Padres have now lost SIX straight, after a surprising 11-5 start. Tyler Mahle (0-1, 2.65 ERA) gets the nod for the Reds lefty Joey Lucchesi (2-2, 5.06 ERA) for the Padres. Mahle allowed just one run, seven hits and four walks while striking out 12 in 11 innings of his first two starts this season ( two no-decisions / Reds were 1-1). However, he allowed four runs in six innings of a 6-1 loss at Dodger Stadium this past Tuesday. Mahle's two career starts vs the Padres came last season, when he allowed two runs on 10 hits and five walks with 10 strikeouts over eight innings (1-0, 2.25 ERA / team was 1-1). Lucchesi pitched a career-high seven innings but allowed five runs and seven hits (including two HRs) in a 5-2 loss to Colorado on Monday. Lucchesi is in his second major league season and opened 2019 by allowing seven hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts over 10.1 scoreless innings in his first two starts (both wins). However, he is 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 12 runs on 14 hits and four walks with eight strikeouts in 11 innings. Lucchesi has never faced the Reds. I know the Reds have won the first three but a four-game road sweep for a team that entered 0-7 on the road in 2019? I just can't 'buy' that. Lucchesi has 166 strikeouts in 151.1 career innings, which shows his potential. The Reds were just 30-51 on the road last season and I'm on San Diego to snap its six-game slide in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Blue Jays v. A's -156 | 5-4 | Loss | -156 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Oak A's at 4;07 ET. The Toronto Blue Jays opened the season 5-11 but are steamrolling through a seven-game road trip. The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series at Oakland by a combined 15-2 margin, improving to 10-12 on the season by going 5-1 on the trip. They hope to finish it on a high note with a three-game sweep of the A's Sunday afternoon. The A's bats have gone silent as of late, as Oakland has been held to two runs or less in four straight games and is 1-4 in its last five contests. Aaron Sanchez (2-1, 2.86 ERA) gets the nod for the Jays and Brett Anderson (3-0, 2.63 ERA) for the A's. Sanchez will be making his fourth straight road start and will be looking to bounce back from Tuesday's start at Minnesota. He did hold the Twins to just four hits in six innings but he also gave up a season-high four earned runs while walking four and allowing his first two HRs of the year. Anderson has three quality starts among his first four outings, including six innings with two earned runs allowed at Texas last Sunday, although the A's lost 8-7 (in had a no-decision). Yes, Toronto comes in red-hot but even after the etam's recent surge, the Blue Jays are averaging a modest 4.09 RPG (22nd) and batting just .225 (23rd) with an OPS of .674 (24th) in 2019. Toronto was just 33-48 on the road in 2018 and I want no part of them here, looking for the road sweep. Sanchez has been knocked around for 10 runs in 10.1 innings through his first two career starts versus the Athletics (10.05 ERA), while Anderson owns a 2.57 ERA in two career starts vs Toronto. More importantly, Anderson has been sharp this season (has allowed two ERs or less in THREE of his four starts / 3 ERs in the fourth) plus owns a 3.44 career ERA in home games. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Mets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the NY Mets at 2:15 ET. The St. Louis Cardinals had to be glad when they heard that Jacob deGrom's elbow was "barking" when he began throwing early on Saturday. The 2018 NL Cy Young Award winner was placed on the 10-day injured list and the Mets had to call up Chris Flexen from Triple-A Syracuse to start him in deGrom's pace. The Cardinals took advantage and won 10-2, setting up the rubber match of the series in Sunday's contest. St Louis has scored at least four runs in each game during its 6-1 surge at home, which goes back to April 7 (Cards will play their next six at home after the Mets leave town). The loss was New York's FIFTH in seven games but the day was not all bad for New York, as after more throws on Saturday, deGrom said his arm "felt completely normal" and he was back on track to start Friday. Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 5.63 ERA) will take the mound for New York and be opposed by the Cards' Dakota Hudson (0-1, 6.08 ERA). Syndergaard posted season highs in runs allowed (five), hits allowed (nine) and strikeouts (nine) in a no-decision at Philadelphia on Monday, a game the Mets won 7-6 in 11 innings. He has a 7.36 ERA in two road starts in 2019 but he owns a 3.08 ERA in four career starts against St Louis. Hudson has allowed 10 runs in eight innings on 15 hits (including five HRs) in two starts at Milwaukee this year, but has also posted a total of 5.1 scoreless innings in his other two outings (one start / one in relief). This marks Hudson' fourth career start (all coming in 2019). He threw 4.2 innings without giving up a run in a 4-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in his only prior home start (April 9) and the former first-round pick has not allowed an earned run at home. That sound impressive but he's totaled just 19 career innings at home, allowing 13 hits while allowing a troubling 12 walks. My bet says that Hudson's first appearance against the Mets does not go well, while Syndergaard should be up to the task off a poor last outing. Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -112 | 4-3 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the TB Rays at 2:10 ET. The defending World Series champions are just 8-13 to start 2019, although yesterday's win gave the team back-to-back wins for the second time this season. However, Boston can't be happy that it let the Rays back in the game after taking 5-0 lead with a five-run 2nd inning. Tampa Bay chipped away and eventually tied the score at 5-5, before Andrew Benintendi's sacrifice fly brought in the winning run in the ninth inning (Benintendi's grand slam capped the five-run 2nd-inning). The Rays sit at 14-7 (lead the AL East by 3 1/2 games) but Thursday's loss to Baltimore (6-5 in 11 innings) Plus back-to-back losses to Boston on Friday and Saturday, give the team its first losing streak of 2019. David Price (1-1, 3.79 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Tyler Glasnow (4-0, 1.13 ERA) for Tampa Bay. Price has been Boston's most consistent starter (not saying much, as Boston's 5.81 team ERA of ranks 29th). He has worked at least six innings in each of his first three starts and ic s coming off his best outing against Baltimore last Sunday, when he scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out seven without issuing a walk to earn the 4-0 win. Price was the No. 1 overall pick by Tampa Bay in 2007 and went 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five starts (Boston was 4-1) against the Rays last season. However, he's a more modest 5-3 (3.33 ERA) in 13 career starts vs the Rays (teams are 7-6). Glasnow has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his first four starts and worked a season-high seven innings against Baltimore on Tuesday, allowing two runs and seven hits to earn the 4-2 win. Obtained in a trade with Pittsburgh last July 31 that sent pitcher Chris Archer to the Pirates, Glasnow leads the staff in wins (four), owns a 1.13 ERA and an 0.88 WHIP plus batters have hit just 2.05 against him. His production has been even more significant since staff ace Blake Snell was place on the injured list with a broken toe. Tampa Bay's pitching staff owns a 2,83 ERA (2nd) and the Rays are allowing opponents an average of just 2.67 RPG in Tropicana Field. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are allowing 6.27 RPG away from home. NO sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 204 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Bos/Ind Over at 1:05 ET. The Indiana Pacers (48-34) went 8-14 down the stretch and the Boston Celtics (49-33) were able to earn the East's No. 4 seed and the homecourt advantage in their first round series with the Pacers, despite going just 7-6 down the stretch. In what was supposed to be a six or seven game series, Boston has controlled both ends of the floor against Indiana and with a 3-0 series lead, can become the first NBA team to advance to the second round of the playoffs when the teams play Game 4 of their best-of-seven series Sunday in Indianapolis. Boston held the Pacers to just 74 points in a 10-point Game 1 win, then outscored Indiana 31-12 in the fourth quarter of Game 2, for an eight-point win. The Pacers had SEVEN players in double digits at home in Game 3 but still weren't able to crack 100 points, losing 104-96. Kyrie Irving finished Game 3 with 19 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and just two turnovers and is averaging 25.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists in the series. Jaylen Brown, who is starting at shooting guard with Marcus Smart (oblique) sidelined, scored 23 points while making 8-of-9 shots on Friday, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. As for Indiana, the Pacers fell victim to another bad quarter in Game 3, losing the third by a 21-12 margin. "The silver lining is that we've been in every single game," PG Darren Collison told reporters. "All it takes is one win. Definitely ain't going to be no quit in us. I know it sounds foolish outside looking in, being down 3-0, but in this locker room there's definitely not going to be no quit." No team in NBA history has ever won a series after falling behind 3-0 and Indiana is basically reduced to playing for pride at this point. Defense was an issue down teh stretch for Indiana, which allowed 11 of its 13 opponents to score 102 or more points. In fact, Boston averaged 115.5 PPG in the two high-stakes meetings from Indiana in the final two weeks, 114-112 in Boston and later 117-97 at Indiana. Not sure whether the Pacers can earn their way into the win column but I believe we'll see the Pacers give a four-quarter offensive effort. Have three straight unders, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. Houston at the buzzer, 112-11. Then, both Denver and Portland won the next night, dropping the Rockets to the No. 4 seed. However, Houston has shown no signs of a let down, routing the Jazz 120-90 in Game 1 and 118-98 in Game 2. "The Rockets are playing at an unbelievably high level," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "They're going to make plays. The adjustment to that is to just keep competing. That's the mindset that we have to have." Utah is struggling to find a rhythm on offense and in particular, the Jazz have made just 15-of-65 (23.1%) from three-point range in the first two games. James Harden is averaging 30.5-8.5-10.5 in the first two games plus backcourt mates Gordon (16.5) and Paul (15.5) are supporting him nicely. Center Clint Capela is averaging a double-double (11.5 & 11.0) and he's been supported by fellow frontcourt players Tucker (13.5), House (9.5) and Faried (9.0 & 6.0). On the Utah side, center Gobert (16.5 & 12.) and PG Rubio (16.0) have out-performed the Jazz' best player, Donovan Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.2 in the regular season). Mitchell has averaged just 15.0 PPG, while shooting percent, including 4 of 15 on threes. Jae Crowder was a valuable role player in the regular season (11.9 & 4.8) but he's scored just 14 points in two games, shooting 16.7% from the floor, including 2 of 13 on threes. After watching the first two games, Houston looks unbeatable. However, is it EVER that simple? Utah's Snyder put it simply. "Our group has always been a group that's responded, and that's what we have to do. We played poorly, and we have to be better. That will be the focus." I'll add that the Jazz finished the regular season with an eight-game winning streak at home, with an average margin of victory of 14.8 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-19 | Reds v. Padres +116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the SD Padres at 8:40 ET. The Cincinnati Reds beat the Pirates 5-3 on Opening Day but then lost EIGHT in a row. They came to San Diego to open a four-game series with a 5-12 overall record, including an 0-7 record on the road. However, Cincinnati won its first road game of 2019 on Thursday (4-1) and followed with its second straight road win on Friday, when the Reds outlasted the Padres 3-2 in 11 innings (Derek Dietrich snapped a 1-1 tie in the top of the 11th with a two-run HR). While the Reds look to be "turning things around," the Padres have lost FIVE straight, after a surprising 11-5 start. Luis Castillo (1-1, 1.46 ERA) will take the mound for Cincy and will be opposed by San Diego lefty Eric Lauer (2-2, 4.91 ERA). Castillo not only owns a 1.46 ERA but he's struck out 32 in 24.2 innings this season (at least seven in each of his four starts). However, he has yet to defeat San Diego in his career, going 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in three starts (team is 1-2). Lauer, a former first-round pick, will be making his fifth start of the season and first against a non-division opponent (He's beaten the Giants twice and lost twice to the D'backs). Lauer made two starts against Cincinnati as a rookie last year, going 1-0 while allowing one run and registering 12 strikeouts over nine innings (1.00 ERA / SD won both games). Castillo has pitched very well but I believe he's been "over his head." In his first two ML seasons, he's just 13-19 (3.89 ERA) in 46 starts (team is 23-23). He steps to the mound for a team averaging just 3.42 RPG (26th) and batting a MLB-low of .192 (note: Reds have averaged just 2.56 RPG on the road). Speaking of Cincy's road record, the Reds were 30-51 on the road last season and in road night games vs lefties, went 3-10 while averaging a woeful 2.9 RPG. The Reds face a young lefty tonight (Lauer), who has the makings of a being a solid (good?) ML pitcher. San Diego breaks its five-game slide right here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-20-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 6-5 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Division Dominator (AL East) is on the TB Rays at 6:10 ET. It's a "first vs worst" matchup in the AL East on Saturday, as the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Rays square off at Tropicana Field. In a "role reversal," the defending champion Red Sox sit 7-13 and in the AL East 'cellar,' while the 14-6 Rays sit atop the division, 4 1/2 games clear of the second-place Yankees (SEVEN games up on Boston). Reigning American League MVP Mookie Betts had gone SEVEN straight games without an extra-base hit and was 2-for-23 in that span, before leading off the sixth inning with a double on Friday and clubbing a go-ahead solo HR in the eighth to lead Boston to a 6-4 victory, snapping a three-game slide. As for Tampa Bay, the Rays lost Thursday night to Baltimore (6-5 in 11 innings), making Friday's loss the team's first set of back-to-back defeats this season. Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12 ERA) will get the ball for Boston and Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18 ERA) for Tampa Bay. Porcello issued five walks in four innings and was charged with three runs on six hits in a 9-5 loss to Baltimore last Saturday. The scary thought is that the effort 'lowered' his ERA from 13.50 to 11.12! The former AL Cy Young Award winner has issued a total of 12 walks to go with 22 hits allowed in 11.1 innings over his first three outings (owns a horrific 3.00 WHIP). Morton arrived in Tampa Bay after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He's proving to be an excellent addition, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his first four outings (team is 3-1 in his starts). Porcello has faced Tampa Bay 28 times as a starter, going 14-10 with a 3.42 ERA (team is 17-11). He made five starts against Tampa Bay last season and went 2-2 with a 4.34 ERA, with both losses coming at Tropicana Field. Boston is just 4-10 on the road this season, allowing 6.36 RPG. The pitching staff owns a team ERA of 5.85, which ranks 29th of 30 teams. Meanwhile, the Rays are allowing just 2.36 RPG in 11 home games this season and the pitching staff owns the AL's best team ERA (2.67). NO three straight losses here for the Rays. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-19 | Avalanche v. Flames -167 | 5-1 | Loss | -167 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
My 7* play is on the Cal Flames at 10:00 ET. The Colorado Avalanche went 8-0-2 over their final 10 regular season games to clinch the second wild card in the Western Conference. The eighth-seeded Avalanche lost Game 1 of their series to the West's No. 1 seed Calgary but then rebounded from a 4-0 shutout loss at Calgary with a 3-2 OT victory on Saturday night in Game 2. The Avs were just 'warming up,' as they returned to Colorado to win Game 3 (6-2) and Game 4 (3-2 in OT), to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Calgary Flames are on the ropes, after losing three consecutive games to the Colorado Avalanche. The top-seeded Flames look to avoid becoming the second No. 1 seed to be ousted from the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs when they return home to face the Avalanche in Game 5 on Friday night. Colorado erased a two-goal lead by scoring twice in the third period and the Mikko Rantanen scored his second goal of the game by converting in overtime for a 3-2 victory. Rantanen (87 points) finished second in points to Nathan MacKinnon (99 points) in the regular season despite missing the final eight games due to an upper-body injury and he has provided an offensive jolt in the playoffs, leading Colorado with six points on three goals and three assist. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer owns a 2.10 GAA and .933 SP in the series (has played all games), after splitting time in net during the regular season with Varlamov. Speaking of goaltenders, Calgary's Mike Smith posted a 1.94 GAA over his last 11 regular-season appearances to earn the starting job for the playoffs and has responded by making 161 saves, 28 more than any other netminder through four games. Smith hasn't been the problem for Calgary, as after the team's 4-0 Game 1, the Flames have scored just TWO goals in each of the last three games. The team's leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau (99 points) has been limited to one assist in the series. The Avalanche have peppered Smith with a staggering 108 shots on goal in the past two games but he's stood tall. A return home should spark Calgary's offense and while a 3-1 deficit may be too much to overcome, a Game 5 win is hardly a stretch. Let's NOT forget that Calgary had 107 points inn the regular season, 17 more than Colorado's 90. The Flames went 26-10-5 at home this regular season, giving them more home wins than all teams save Boston (29) and Tampa Bay (32). This series is headed back to Colorado for a Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-19 | Blue Jays v. A's -126 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET. Khris Davis just signed a two-year contract for a reported $33.5 million heading into the Oakland Athletics' opener of a three-game series vs the visiting Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. He led the majors with 48 HRs in 2018 and holds an early lead in 2019 with 10, to go along with 20 RBI. Davis has hit 143 HRs since being acquired in a trade with Milwaukee in 2016, with his three seasons of at least 40, tying him with Mark McGwire and Hall of Famer Jimmie Foxx for the most in Athletics' history. However, it was Mark Chapman who launched his third HR in six games, as Oakland posted its fifth win in seven outings with 2-1 triumph over Houston on Wednesday. The 11-10 A's will welcome the 8-12 Blue Jays to Oakland tonight, after Toronto recorded its third win in four contests with a 7-4 victory over Minnesota on Thursday. Friday's pitching matchup will feature Marcus Stroman (0-3, 1.99 ERA) of Toronto and Aaron Brooks (2-1, 4.24 ERA) of Oakland. Stroman is winless in four 2019 starts, despite a 1.99 ERA. He was done in by an error from second baseman Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the third inning, as well as his own throwing error in the fourth to go along with four free passes, in his last outing. After getting a no-decision in his first start of 2019, he's now lost three straight outings. Oakland's Brooks rebounded from a poor outing at Houston on April 6 (5 IP / 9 hits / 5 ERs) with a strong one in Baltimore five days later, allowing three runs on as many hits in six innings of an 8-5 win. Brooks has worked himself back to the majors after a 3 1/2-year absence due to injuries and poor performance. In his two 2019 wins, he's allowed just three ERs on five hits in 12 innings (2.25 ERA). Stroman will be making his fifth attempt at a first win of the season against the A's, against whom he's 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts (Jays are 1-3). Brooks not only owns a 2.25 ERA in his two wins this season but he's gotten 15 runs of support in those wins. He should expect excellent support here, as the A's were 35-15 (+$1,950) at home vs righties in 2018, including going 21-6 in night games, averaging 5.3 RPG. The A's have opened 7-3 at home in 2019 (no counting those two 'home' games in Japan) and Brooks will face a Toronto team averaging 3.75 RPG (22), batting just .217 (24th) with an OPS of .648 (24th) in 2019 and one which went 33-48 on the road in 2018. Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -7.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the OKC Thunder at 9:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers were able to edge the OKC Thunder 103-99 in Game 1 and then had little trouble going up 2-0 in their first-round series by routing OKC 114-94 in Game 2. It will come as no surprise that the Blazers have been led by their dynamic guard duo of Lillard (29.5-4.0-5.0) and McCollum (28.5-7.0-4.0). On the OKC side, Paul George has led the Thunder by averaging 26.5 & 9.0, while PG Westbrook has added 19.0-9.5-10.5. That said, Westbrook made just 5 of 20 shots in Game 2 has been soundly outplayed by Lillard. "I know how quickly things can change," Lillard told reporters. "I know that a series doesn't start until you win a game on the road. I also know how capable their team is. So, we've just got to maintain our focus, stay sharp in the things we've been sharp in and understand how well we played in the first game and the second game is not going to be good enough in the third game, especially on their home floor. We've got to keep our heads down and keep working." Lillard and McCollum have led the way but Enes Kanter (13.0 & 11.5) has been HUGE for Portland, as he's played OKC center Steven Adams to a standstill. Here's what OKC must change in Game 3. The Thunder have made only 10 of 61 shots (16.4%) from three-point range. Paul George is 6 for 22 on his three-point attempts and Russell Westbrook is 1 for 10 in the series. Jerami Grant and Dennis Schroder are both 0 for 8 and Terrance Ferguson 2 for 7.It's hard to make up numbers that bad! What's more, OKC has committed 16 turnovers in each of the first two games, with Thunder head coach Billy Donovan has pointed toward the miscues as one reason for the team's stagnant offense. OKC returned from the All Star break to go 7-13 and seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed and a first round meeting with the Warriors. However, the Thunder won their final FIVE regular season games (4-1 ATS) to earn the No. 6 seed. OKC got what it wanted (avoiding Golden St). Tonight, the Thunder need to "step up" and avoid falling down 0-3 vs the Blazers. My bet says Westbrook responds and the Thunder do just that! Good luck...Larry |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -3 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers 8:35 ET. Kyrie Irving is making the most of his first playoff series with the Boston Celtics. He scored 20 points and helped lead a dominant defensive effort in a series-opening 84-74 win and then finished with 37 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Wednesday's come-from-behind 99-91 victory in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven matchup. Boston trailed by 12 points with 11 minutes remaining in Game 2, before putting together a 16-0 run during a fourth quarter in which the Celtics would outscore the Pacers 31-12 for a 99-91 win. In Game 1, the Pacers led 45-38 at the half but then got outscored 26-8 in the quarter. "It's always been one quarter that kills us in the second half," Pacers forward Thaddeus Young told reporters of his team, after Indiana fell behind 2-0 in the series. "We're getting good looks and shots are not falling. ... We gotta put together a 48-minute game and we haven't been able to that."That pretty much sums it up. Jayson Tatum scored 26 points in Wednesday's win and was the catalyst in a game-ending 10-0 surge by producing six points and one assist. Tatum is averaging 20.5 points on 54.8 percent shooting in the series but Boston could use more balanced scoring. Kyrie is averaging 28.5-5.5-7.0 but Boston needs more from the rest of its players. Indiana knows all to well about players underachieving in the series, so far. Big men Sabonis and Turner, who averaged 14.1 & 9.3 and 13.3 & 7.2 during the regular season, respectively, have been playoff "no-shows." Sabonis is averaging a woeful 4.0 PPG (7.0 RPG), while Turner has hardly been much better (6.5 & 6.5). Shooting guard Wesley Matthews (10.9 PPG in the regular season) was held to six points in Game, his second straight single-digit effort. Boston has won five straight meetings overall with Indiana, the last four of which have come in a 20-day span. The Pacers have shot 39 percent in the series, including 31 percent on three-pointers and have totaled just 165 points in the first two games. Considering that Indiana has lost its last 10 games when the team has failed to reach triple digits (note: The Celtics have won five in a row when holding opponents under 100), the Pacers have to find a way to "score the ball." Consider this. Remember that the Celtics went up on Milwaukee with two series-opening wins at home in the first round last year, only to lose two straight on the road to let the Bucks right back in that series. Boston did go on to win that in seven games but the Celtics finished a pathetic 1-7 on the road in the 2018 postseason. Pacers get back in it here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -111 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Jose Sharks at 10;00 ET. San Jose opened its series against Vegas with a 5-2 Game 1 win. However, the Sharks have now lost THREE in a row to the Golden Knights, getting outscored 16-6. San Jose's beleaguered goaltender Martin Jones allowed two goals on seven shots in Tuesday's 5-0 setback, before being pulled for the second time in three contests in favor of Aaron Dell. In contrast, Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has turned aside 87 of 93 shots in his last three games and all 28 he faced on Tuesday, delivering his15th postseason shutout. Fleury improved his career goals-against average in the postseason to 2.58 (it's 2.51 in this series). Clearly, San Jose is facing major goaltending issues, but head coach Peter DeBoer said Jones will start in Game 5.Let's NOT forget that Jones won 36 games this season, his FOURTH in a row with 30 or more victories (37, 35 & 30). During that span, his GAA have ranged from a low of 2.27 to a high of 2.94. Let's also remember that the Sharks rode the second-best home record in the Western Conference (were 25-11-5 at SAP Center during the regular season) to a second-place finish in the Pacific Division, eight points better than the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas beat San Jose 4-2 in last year's semifinals but the Golden Knights (109 points) were the better team, as the Sharks finished with 100 points. That's not the case this time around. Vegas may oust San Jose again in 2019 but NOT here in Game 5. Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center but the SA Spurs, who had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, would win Game 1 last Saturday by the score of 101-96. In Tuesday's Game 2, the Nuggets found themselves down 19 points (78-59) late in the third quarter, headed for an 0-2 hole in the series. However, PG Jamal Murray, who made critical mistakes down the stretch in Game 1 and was dreadful for the first three quarters of Game 2, erupted to score 21 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback victory. Murray missed all eight of his field-goal attempts over the first three quarters but coach Michael Malone stuck with him and he was a blistering 8-of-9 shooting as Denver outscored the Spurs 39-23 over the final 12 minutes (55-27, after that 78-59 deficit). "We don't quit," reserve guard Malik Beasley told reporters. "Playoff experience matters, but as long as you play hard and play together, that's what matters on the court." Guard Gary Harris scored 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 2 and is averaging 21.5 points in the series. Center Jokic, who led Denver is scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season, added 21-13-8. Veteran PF Millsap had 20 points, one of four 20-point scorers for Denver in Game 2. I've noted often that Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more are averaging between 5.8 and 8.7 PPG (does not include "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games and hasn't played in the series). As for the Spurs, it was a big missed opportunity. "We got Game 1. We fought, tried to get Game 2, but we got homecourt shifting our way," Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters. "Now, it's on us to go home and do what we need to do, understand if we take care of home, like we've been doing all year, we can come back here with an opportunity. We feel great where we're at. We understood it wasn't going to be a cake walk." Aldridge (21.3 & 9.2) and DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) were the Spurs' "one-two punch" during the regular season and although the Spurs can't quite meet the overall depth and strength of Denver's bench, the Spurs still own quite a impressive group of role players. In Game 1, White had 16 points (he's averaging 16.5 in the series), Forbes (15 points) and Gay (14 points). Then in Game 2, DeRozan poured in 31 points,Aldridge added 24 and PG D White 17 but no other player scored in double digits. Let's not forget that the Spurs led Tuesday's game from the middle of the first quarter to the middle of the fourth (often by double digits). The Spurs now return home and have to be more than just a little angry that they are not up 2-0. What better head coach could a team ask for in this situation than Pop. The Nuggets have to feel as if they are playing with 'house money' after stealing Game 2 bu the task ahead is a formidable one. Denver has lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 4, 2012. Even of more importance is the following. The Nuggets finished the regular season going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the more than reasonable points with the Spurs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-19 | Dodgers v. Brewers +103 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Mil Brewers at 8;10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the 2019 season 8-2 but then lost SIX in a row, before snapping their slide last Sunday with a 7-1 win over the Brewers in LA. The Dodgers have since swept a three-game home series with Reds, extending their winning streak to four and at 12-8, are back atop the NL West (note: LA has won six straight NL West titles). A.J. Pollock hit a three-run HR that was the decisive blow in LA's 3-2 win over Cincinnati on Wednesday, allowing the Dodgers to tie the major league record with a homer in their 32nd straight home game. The Dodgers will hope to continue to flex their muscles when they open a seven-game road trip at the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night. Like LA, Milwaukee opened 8-2, before losing three games in Anaheim to the Angels. The Brewers then took two of three in LA vs the Dodgers and two of three at home vs the Cards. The Brewers open this series 12-7 and atop the NL Central. Milwaukee has been facing a lot of familiar opponents lately. The Brewers, who ended last season with a seven-game loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS, will play either the Dodgers or St. Louis Cardinals in 17 of their first 26 games this season, as they head to St Louis for three games after this weekend series at home vs LA. Julio Urias (0-1, 5.27 ERA) will get the nod for LA and Zach Davies (2-0, 1.53 ERA) for Milwaukee. Urias will need a better effort than he had last Friday against Milwaukee, when he worked five innings and gave up for six runs in six innings of an 8-5 loss. He did strike out seven in five scoreless innings of three-hit ball in his season debut (got a no-decision in a 4-2 loss to SF), but then lasted only 3.2 innings while giving up three runs in a no-decision at Colorado on April 7 (Rockies won 12-4). In stark contrast, Davies has improved in each of his three starts and went a season-high seven innings against the Dodgers, earning the 4-1 victory after permitting one run on eight hits while striking out six last Saturday. He also won his previous start against the Chicago Cubs, allowing just two runs (neither earned) on five hits over 5.2 innings, which followed five innings of two-run ball in a no-decision at Cincinnati on April 1. The Dodgers are 0-3 in Urias' three 2019 starts and he could be headed to the bullpen. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 3-0 in Davies' three starts of 2019, as he looks to put last year's injury-plagued season behind him (2-7, 4.77 ERA in 13 starts / team was 5-8). Let's NOT forget that Davies was 17-9 in 33 starts in 2017, as the Brewers went 20-13 (+$880). Davvies is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in five career starts vs the Dodgers. The Dodgers just swept the Reds but that was in LA vs a team which is just 5-12. Wns will NOT come as easily here in Milwaukee, which is 7-3 at home in 2019, after going 51-30 at Miller Park in 2018. No reason at all for Milwaukee NOT being the favorite in this game! Good luck...Larry |
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04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers -108 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Det Tigers at 1:10 ET. The Detroit Tigers dropped back-to-back extra-inning games at home Tuesday (4-3 in 10 inn) and Wednesday (3-2 in 10 inn) against the Pirates and have now lost FIVE in a row, after a surprising 8-4 start to 2019. The Tigers remain home and welcome the 7-10 Chicago White Sox to Comerica Park on Thursday, for the beginning of a four-game series. The White Sox had a three-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's 4-3, 10-inning loss at home to Kansas City, a game which was marred by a benches-clearing incident. Chicago will hand the ball to Ivan Nova (0-2, 5.28 ERA) and the Tigers have decided on Tyson Ross (1-2, 3.50 ERA). Nova bounced back from a rocky outing against Seattle on April 7 (7 ERs allowed in just 2.1 innings), to spin six outstanding innings in a hard-luck 4-0 loss at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, allowing a run and four hits with five strikeouts. Nova has allowed just two runs in 13 innings through his first two road starts of 2019 but owns a 7.33 ERA in his career at Comerica Park and is winless (0-4) in seven prior regular season starts against the Tigers, allowing giving up 59 hits in 43.2 innings. Ross gave up four runs on five hits with four walks across six innings of a 4-3 loss at Minnesota his last time out. He has issued nine walks in 18 innings on the season but owns a decent ERA (3.50) in three starts, while holding opponents to a .222 average. He is also 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA in his career against the White Sox. Detroit was homerless for the 11th time in its last 16 games on Wednesday, to remain stuck on seven for the year, six fewer than any other team in the majors. The Tigers are averaging just 2.65 RPG (29th), are batting .203 (28th) and own a .591 OPS (30th). However, the Tigers own MLB's third-best team ERA (3.00), including a 2.76 ERA from their bullpen (4th-best). Detroit will NOT be facing a Pittsburgh pitching staff in this series (Pirates own MLB's second-lowest team ERA at 2.63) but rather a Chicago staff that owns a 5.51 team ERA (27th of 30 teams). Throw in Nova's poor lifetime mark vs the Tigers and Ross's solid career mark vs Chicago and the bet is Detroit. Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-19 | Blue Jays v. Twins -141 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Min Twins at 7:40 ET. Teoscar Hernandez's three-run HR in the eighth inning, rallied Toronto to a 5-3 victory in Monday night's opener of a four-game series at Minnesota. He followed that up with a two-run single in the seventh inning last night, to break a 4-4 tie in an eventual 6-5 Blue Jays win. The contest ended with Hernandez throwing out the tying run at the plate for the game's final out. The 7-11 Blue Jays and 8-6 Twins continue their four-game set Wednesday night at Target Field, as first-year Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli will try to put an end to the first losing streak of his managing career. Trent Thornton (0-1, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto, opposed by Minnesota's Jake Odorizzi (0-2, 6.35 ERA).Thornton is a rookie who allowed five runs on eight hits (three HRs) in just three innings of an 11-7 loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. He was much better in his first two starts of 2019, allowing a total of only two runs, five hits and two walks while striking out 15 over 10.2 innings without earning a decisions in either contest. Odorizzi allowed three runs on just one hit but walked four in 4.2 innings of a 9-6 loss to the Mets in New York on April 10. He struggled with his command for the second straight start, after allowing five runs (four earned), two hits and three walks in just .2 innings of a 10-4 setback at Philadelphia on April 4. So why the Twins? First off, the Jays are 0-3 in Thornton's first three career starts and Odorizzi has shown flashes of being a solid starter while having three double-digit win season while with Tampa Bay from 2014-17. Odorizzi was sharp in his lone home start this season (6 IP / 1 ER / 11 Ks!) plus he's made 15 career starts games vs the Blue Jays, while posting a solid 3.21 ERA. As noted at the top, Minnesota's has lost back-to-back games for the first time this season on Monday and Tuesday but let me note that the Twins were an impressive 49-32 (+$1,345) at Target Field last season. Twins win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Ind/Bos Over at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics finished the regular season going 5-5 SU but just 1-9 ATS over their final 10 regular season games. However, the Celtics were able to edge the Pacers for the 4th-seed in the East. The Pacers sure made it easier for Boston, as after winning their first road game after the All Star break., Indiana lost 10 straight road games (2-8 ATS), before winning at Detroit amd Atlanta to end the season. The two teams met Sunday at TD Garden in Game 1 of their first-round series, with the Pacers taking a 45-38 halftime lead. However, the Celtics outmuscled in the Pacers in the second half on their way to an 84-74 win (Boston outscored Indiana 26-8 in the third quarter). Indiana shot just 33.3 percent from the floor (including 6-of-27 on threes) in Game 1 plus also went only 12-of-21 from the FT line. Just ONE starter scored in double digits, as the team's five starters combined for only 38 on 15-of-44 (34.1%) shooting from the floor. Also, the Indiana bench contributed to the team's poor offensive effort, with the usually reliable Domantas Sabonis (3-for-9), Tyreke Evans (3-for-11) and Doug McDermott (1-for-7) combining to shoot just 7-for-27 (25.9%). The Celtics had five players score in double digits, yet scored only 84 points, while shooting 36.4 percent, overall. Despite their lowest scoring game of the season, the Celtics prevailed 84-74 in Game 1 by dominating the second half and limiting the Pacers to 29 points. The Pacers were just 2-of-19 from the floor in the third quarter and made only eight FGs in the entire second half, going 8-for-38 (21.1 percent). The 74-point total was 15 points lower than any previous game this season for the Pacers. The Celtics shot just 32 percent in the first half, before improving to 41 percent in the second half, in what was their lowest scoring game of the season. So what to expect in Game 2? Is it possible that either team will shoot so poorly again? The Pacers shot 47.5% from the floor during the season (4th-best), including 37.4% on threes (5th-best). No way they shoot 33.3%, including 22.2% in Game 2. As for Boston, the Celtics shot 46.5% on the season, 10 percent better than in Game 1. These teams played in Boston down the stretch (March 29), with the Celtics winning 114-112. This game may not reach that level of scoring but I expect both teams to be in 100s and the current total is about a 'TD' lower than what it closed in Game 1 (210.5). This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-19 | Giants v. Nationals -128 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. The San Francisco Giants showed a rare power display by hitting a season-high three HRs in their series-opening 7-3 victory over the Washington Nationals. Evan Longoria extended his hitting streak to six games with a solo HR in the fifth inning of Tuesday's win for San Francisco, which had hit a National League-worst 10 HRs in the team's first 17 contests. Making some early 'noise' for the Nats is Anthony Rendon, who had an RBI single in the seventh inning to extend his career-best hitting streak to 14 games (Rendon is batting .397 on the season), The pitching matchup features Jeff Samardzija (1-0, 1.62 ERA) of the Giants and Jeremy Hellickson (1-0, 2.25 ERA) of the Nationals. Samardzija has been a career-long underachiever but has pitched well in 2019 (1.08 WHIP and ,203 BAA to go along with his 1.62 ERA in three starts / team is 2-1). However, Samardzija is is 2-8 with a 4.63 ERA in 17 career appearances vs the Nats (more later). Hellickson is Washington's fifth starter and due to the Nats' early season schedule, ace Max Scherzer made three starts this year before Hellickson made his first. Hellickson made his first 2019 start on April 10 in Philadelphia (only start, so far). He had made a relief appearance against the Phiilies on April 2, allowing two ERs on three hits in just two innings. However, he avenged a tough relief outing against Philadelphia by besting his former team in scattering three hits and overcoming four walks in six innings of a 15-1 romp last Wednesday. I'm NO fan of Samardzija and let me note that he is 0-6 with a 7.39 ERA in his last six starts against the Nationals. He has not beaten them since 2013 and is 2-8 with a 4.99 ERA against Washington in 10 career starts. I can't back him here on the road, as the Gaints were only 31-50 away from home last season, going 10-24 in away night games vs right-handers (averaged just 3.6 RPG). Yes, the Giants won 7-3 last night (with three HRs) but even after that outburst, the Giants enters this contest 28th in scoring (3.00 RPG), 29th in team BA (.204) and 30th in OPS (.591). Good luck...Larry |
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04-17-19 | Cardinals +123 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 123 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cards at 1:40 ET. Christian Yelich won last year's National League Most Valuable Player award and he's led the Brewers with four HRs and 10 RBI in the first two games of the series with Cards (Milwaukee has won 10-7 & 8-4) and he is 11-for-21 with eight HRs and 18 RBI in six games overall against St Louis this season. The Brewers have won FIVE of six against their NL Central rival this season but Christian Yelich is not the team's only red-hot player. Catcher Yasmani Grandal. He's hitting .512 (21-for-41) in 12 April games to raise his overall average .404. The 12-6 Brewers look for a three-game sweep of the 9-8 Cards in Wednesday's afternoon contest. The pitching matchup will feature a "re-hook" from March 31 in Milwaukee, as Michael Wacha (0-0, 5.28 ERA) takes on Corbin Burnes (0-1, 10.05 ERA). Wacha is coming off an injury-interrupted 2018 season but it was one in which he still manged an 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Wacha opened the season with six solid innings in that March 31 no-decision at Milwaukee, striking out seven while allowing just one run in a game the Cards lost 5-4. However, he has regressed in two subsequent starts, walking eight in 5.2 innings of one-run ball vs San Diego, before he was shelled for three HRs and seven runs over 3.2 innings by the Dodgers in his last start. Burnes is off to an 'ugly' start in 2019. When he was matched up against Wacha last month, he did have 12 strikeouts but he also allowed HRs to Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong. Burnes has also given up gave up seven runs over five innings in a loss to the Chicago Cubs on April 6 and five runs and nine hits over 4.1 innings last time out against the Dodgers. The long ball is killing Burnes, who will look to avoid becoming the first pitcher in major league history to surrender at least three HRs in four consecutive starts! The 24-year-old Burnes hardly looks "ready fro primetime," as he enters this contest with a 10.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and a .339 BAA. The Cards WILL get to him (again). Meanwhile, Wacha is 5-0 with a 3.92 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts) vs Milwaukee. An issue is that the Cards are just 5-6 in those starts, as he's not been helped by his bullpen (March 31 contest is a good example). Another example is the fact that Wacha has just ONE loss in his last 17 starts going back to last season (Cards are a more modest 11-6 in those starts)! That said, Wacha over Burnes makes sense. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Denver surprised this season by ending a five-season playoff drought. In fact, the Nuggets battled the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed, before finishing 54-28 to earn the No. 2 seed. As for the Spurs, they were inside the playoff 'cut line' almost the entire season (although not by much) and finished 48-34 (No. 7 seed) to make the team's 22nd straight postseason. The veteran Spurs led for most of Game 1 but the Nuggets were down just five with 2:24 left and had a chance to take the lead but Jamal Murray misfired on an 18-footer with 9.4 seconds left. The Nuggets also had an opportunity to force overtime but Spurs rookie PG Derrick White stole the ball from Murray with 2.1 seconds remaining and hit two free throws with 1.3 seconds left to seal the 101-96 victory. All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season and his 'partner in crime' was shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2). DeRozan had 18 points and 12 rebounds but made just 6 of 17 shots. He was one of five San Antonio players to score in double digits. Aldridge contributed 15 & 8 but was just 6-of-19 from the floor. Derrick White (16 points), Bryn Forbes (15 points) and Rudy Gay (14 points) picked up the slack and shot a combined 19 of 28 (67.9%). The Spurs held Denver to 42 percent shooting and Denver didn't score a point in transition. San Antonio held Denver center Nikola Jokic (20.0-10.8-7.2) to 10 points by double-teaming the All-Star center when he was in the low post. However, he added 14 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 to become the fourth player in NBA history to record a triple-double in his first career playoff game. Jamal Murray (18.2-4.2-4.8) had 17 points but was just 8-of-24 from the floor (33.3%), including missing that dreadful wide-open shot late, that might have been the difference between winning and losing. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Meanwhile, the Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. It's hard to see White, Forbes and Gay combing for 45 points on 67.9% shooting, again. Also, will the Spurs go 7-of-15 from three-point range like in Game 1, with Denver going 6-of-28 (21.4%)? Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team and with better shooting performances from Jokic and Murray, should win rather easily. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-19 | Magic v. Raptors -9.5 | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors have been well-known for their postseason failures but still, the Orlando Magic's 104-101 win in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup was a considered a stunning upset. Then again, we shouldn't have been surprised. After all, the Raptors are now 1-10 in the openers of first-round series in franchise history and just 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series. As for Orlando, the Magic may be the East's No. 7 seed, but they went 22-9 (.710) in the regular season after Jan 31. Only the Houston Rockets (24-8, .750) and Milwaukee Bucks (24-9, .727) had a better winning percentage in the NBA during that span. Orlando's vet PG Augustin was 9-of-13 shooting, including 4-of-5 from three-point range, while pouring in 25 points in Game 1. His three-pointer with 4.2 seconds left was the game-winner, after he had tied the game with a layup. "These last few months, especially since after All-Star break, I think we have one of the best records in the NBA," said Augustin after Game 1. "It's just a mindset that we came in with. Our goal was to make the playoffs, and just not make it, we want to make noise and win a series or two. We feel like we can, we believe in ourselves, coach believes in us and I feel like that's all we need to get some good wins and build momentum." Orlando won with tits two best players, Vucevic (20.8 & 12.0) and Gordon (16.0 & 7.4) combing to make just 6 of 24 shots (.25.0%). The Magic's perimeter shooting made took up teh slacke, as the etam made 14 of 29 three-pointers (48.3%). The Raptors were confused on Augustin's decisive play, as neither small forward Kawhi Leonard nor center Marc Gasol made a move to contest his shot and the end result was a surprising setback. "It was a mistake made on that play," Gasol told reporters of the missed assignment. "We mis-communicated and he made a good shot." Kawhi Leonard (26.6 & 7.3) scored 25 points in his first playoff outing with the Raptors, while forward Pascal Siakam (16.9 & 6.9) also stood out with 24 points and nine rebounds. However, Raptors PG Kyle Lowry (14.2-4.8-8.7) missed all SEVEN of his shots (0-for-6 from three-point range), while going scoreless in the opener. OK, so the Raptors are in a familiar spot, as the fell to 2-14 in Game 1 of any postseason series in franchise history. However, Toronto has never had a player like Leonard, who won an NBA title with the Spurs in 2014, when he was named Finals MVP. The Raptors were 32-9 SU at home during the season and NO WAY the Magic hit 48% from three-point range again. Magic 'return to earth' in this one plus expect a huge bounce-back from Lowry. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-19 | Islanders v. Penguins -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pit Penguins at 7:38 ET. The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, 1975 New York Islanders, 2010 Philadelphia Flyers and 2014 Los Angeles Kings are the only NHL teams to overcome an 3-0 deficit in a seven-game playoff series. Those 1975 Islanders made their comeback against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now, more than four decades later, the Penguins will attempt to 'return the favor.' However, that seems HIGHLY unlikely. Sidney Crosby has tormented the New York Islanders throughout his decorated career, however the two-time Hart Trophy recipient has been held without a point on six shots while recording a minus-4 rating in the Eastern Conference first-round series. In fact, the Penguins have held a lead for only 3 minutes, 17 seconds in the series.Want more? New York is 9-0 all-time when holding a 3-0 lead in best-of-7 series, while Pittsburgh is 0-5 when facing same deficit. Should I just stop there? Islanders goaltender Robin Lehner.has a 1.62 goals-against average and a .951 save percentage through three games.However, let me note that he entered this series with only 49 minutes of playoff action in his career, accumulated in a relief role with Ottawa in 2013.That said, let's listen to Crosby. "We've got to focus on one game. We can't even it up in one game, but we can get ourselves back in it," he said. Crosby piled up 66 goals, 185 points in 163 career playoff games while captaining Pittsburgh to three Stanley Cups, as recently as 2017.The Pens also feature Evgeni Malkin, who like Crosby, has been a main cog in winning three Stanley Cups. Pittsburgh also features Kessell (82 points), Guentzel (40 goals in just 59 games TY) and goalie Matt Murray, a part of Pittsburgh's back-to-back Cup-winning teams (2016 and 2017). No sweep here on Pittsburgh's home ice. Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-19 | Lightning -135 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Situational Stunner is on the TB Lightning at 7:08 ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning matched an NHL record for wins in a regular season (62) and took a 3-0 lead through the first period of their Game 1 with Columbus. However, since that opening period of this first-round series, the Lightning have been outscored a 12-2 in the last EIGHT periods by the Blue Jackets. Columbus earned a comeback 4-3 win on Wednesday, won Friday's Game 2 by the score of 5-1 and then took Sunday's Game 3 (back in Columbus) by a score of 3-1. What's going on here? We know this for sure, that only FOUR of 190 teams in NHL history have come back to win a best-of-seven playoff series after dropping the first three games. Game 4 is tonight and the Blue Jackets can win their first playoff series in franchise history (after 18 years), when they host the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning played Game 3 without Nikita Kucherov, who led the league with 128 points in the regular season. Kucherov was suspended one game for a late in the third period of Game 2. Also, Victor Hedman, last year's Norris Trophy winner as the league's top defenseman, missed Sunday's game with an undisclosed injury and is considered doubtful for Tuesday. Clearly, more is needed from the team’s three 40-goal scorers, Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. So far, the trio has yet to make the scoresheet in the series! We’ve won a lot of hockey games as a team,” Lightning forward Tyler Johnson told reporters after helping set up Sunday's goal. “We can definitely do it. If there’s a group that can, it’s us. We’ve just go to play the right way. Everyone’s got to step up. Everyone’s got to play a solid game, and we’ve got to make it a little bit harder.” “The job’s not done, but at the same time this is fun,” Columbus center Matt Duchene told reporters after scoring for the second straight game in a 3-1 victory Sunday. “This has been unbelievable, and we want to finish the job and leave no doubt. Obviously, we have a great opportunity Tuesday at home in front of our fans. I think these fans deserve that we get the job done here at home.” Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky played a huge part in Columbus’ 7-1-0 finish to the regular season and after allowing three first-period goals in Game 1, has stopped 69 of the 71 shots he faced in the past eight periods (.972 save percentage). The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs, 1975 New York Islanders, 2010 Philadelphia Flyers and 2014 Los Angeles Kings are the only NHL teams to overcome an 3-0 deficit in a seven-game playoff series. The question here isn't, "Can Tampa Bay join that group?" Rather, it's can the Lightning find a way to win ONE game! Tampa Bay finished the third period of Game 3 with a 17-8 edge in shots, creeping within 2-1 on Ondrej Palat’s goal. Captain Steven Stamkos told reporters: “If anything, maybe we found a recipe to break some of their structure there." In just can't NOT play Tampa Bay in this spot. Remember, there is another goalie in this series, Andrei Vasilevskiy. He led the league with 39 wins this season, (2.40 GAA / .925 SP) and was 6-2-0 with a .948 save percentage against the Blue Jackets coming into the series. See you in Game 5! Good luck...Larry |
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04-16-19 | Red Sox -108 v. Yankees | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Bos Red Sox at 6:35 ET. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees own MLB's most-storied rivalry (although Dodgers/Giants fans may disagree). However, it would be hard to argue when one considers that Boston and New York have combined for 17 division titles over the previous 20 seasons. As the two rivals open a two-game series in The Bronx, neither team has played anywhere close to that level in 2019. Boston combined the majors' highest-scoring offense with a top-10 pitching staff en route to winning its fourth World Series title in 15 seasons last year, but Boston is averaging only 4.35 RPG in 2019 (19th), while it's pitching staff's ERA is 5.99 (29th of 30 teams). Both the offense and the pitching held true to form Monday, as the Red Sox were pounded 8-1 by Baltimore on Monday, leaving Boston without a series win in five tries this season (Red Sox are 6-11, overall). New York has better numbers, despite dealing with a host of notable injuries. The Yanks are scoring 4.87 RPG (16th) and their team ERA is 4.04 (10th). However New York enters this series having lost five of six. The Yankees' most recent loss came in New York on Sunda,y when they mustered only four hits and gave up five stolen bases to the Chicago White Sox in a 5-2 defeat. It's a battle of struggling lefties in the series opener, as Chris Sale (0-3, 9.00 ERA) takes on James Paxton (1-2, 6.00 ERA). Sale is easily off to the worst start of any season in his career. He's giving up at least five runs in two of his first three starts, while having lasted no more than four innings in those same outings. The seven-time All-Star was tagged for five runs on seven hits in four innings at home last Tuesday against Toronto, after road losses at Seattle and Oakland. With Luis Severino shut down for six weeks with a lat strain, the Yanks are really counting on Paxton, acquired in an offseason trade with Seattle. However, Paxton has done little in three starts and struggled through his worst outing in three tries as a Yankee on Wednesday, giving up five runs on eight hits (including two HRs) over four innings in an 8-6 loss at Houston last Wednesday. It's quite a surprise to see Boston as MLB's worst moneyline team (-$1,320) at this stage and New York as MLB's second-worst (-$1,160) but that's the current 'state of the union!' Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA in four career starts vs Boston (teams are 3-1) but that's NOTHING compared to the numbers Sale has produced against the Yankees. He's 6-4 in 18 career appearances (15 starts / teams are 8-7) against the Yankees. Confused? The record doesn't sound all that good, right? Well look closer. He owns a 1.84 ERA vs the Yanks, including going 2-0 with an 0.69 ERA in two starts against the Yankees during last year's regular season. What's more, Sale boasts a 1.86 ERA in eight career regular season appearances (seven starts) at Yankee Stadium. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Flames -121 v. Avalanche | 2-6 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Cal Flames at 10:00 ET. The Colorado Avalanche went 8-0-2 over their final 10 regular season games to clinch the second wild card in the Western Conference. The eighth-seeded Avalanche rebounded from a 4-0 shutout loss in Game 1 at Calgary (Flames' 107 points were a Western Conference-best) to earn a split in Calgary with a 3-2 OT victory on Saturday night. A split in Calgary is indeed impressive, as the Flames had a conference-high 26 home wins. "That's the least we came here for. We would've liked to win both games, but a 1-1 split, we'll take that," Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog said. "Now it's a matter of us coming home and repeating this effort. We're not going to sit back. It's right back to preparing for Monday." Calgary captain Mark Giordano offered a more simple assessment, “We have to be better." Colorado enjoyed the better of the play in Game 2 and Calgary surrendered the tying goal with just over 3 1/2 minutes to play, before losing in OT. Calgary can hardly blame goaltender Mike Smith, as he made 36 saves Saturday and has turned aside 62 of 65 shots in the series (.954 SP). Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon, the top overall pick in the 2013 draft who set career highs with 41 goals and 99 points during the regular season, beat Smith with a laser to the top right corner to send the series back to Colorado tied. the Avalance got more great news after their OT win, as the team's top prospect is signed and ready to play perhaps as soon as Game 3 on Monday night. Cale Makar, won the Hobey Baker Award as the best college hockey player, played in the NCAA title game with the University of Massachusetts -- a 3-0 loss to the University of Minnesota-Duluth on Saturday evening. He signed a three-year entry level contract with Colorado and the 20-year-old will join the team immediately. Colorado's Game 2 OT win snapped a four-game losing streak against Clagary and let me note that the Flames went 24-15-2 on the road this season, giving them the West's best road mark (only two Eastern Conference teams won more away games this season than Calgary). I expect the Flames to bounce back behind Smith's excellent play (note: he's held Colorado to ZERO goals in eight power play chances this series). What's more, "the PRICE is RIGHT!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Angels -124 v. Rangers | 7-12 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* MLB "Late-Breaker" is on the LA Angels at 8:05 ET. The LA Angels opened 2019 losing FIVE of six on their season-opening six-game road trip. LA returned to Anaheim for its home opener on April 4 and lost 11-4 to the Rangers. However, LA has since won SEVEN of eight games (outscoring opponents 42-26), despite Mike Trout missing the team's last three. Trout (.406 BA / 5 HRs / 12 RBI) has been sidelined with a groin injury, but is expected to rejoin the team in Texas and could be back in the lineup soon. Texas opened its season by taking two of three from first the Cubs and then the Astros. However, after moving to 5-2 with that 11-4 win at the Angels on April 4, Texas lost five of its last six before rallying for four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to steal an 8-7 triumph over Oakland on Sunday. The AL West rivals open a three-game series tonight in Arlington and the Rangers sure hope that Trout misses a few more contests after the two-time MVP hit five HRs and drove in nine in that four-game series against Texas in Anaheim from April 4-7. Monday's starting pitchers will be Trevor Cahill (1-1, 3.50 ERA) and Shelby Miller (0-1, 9.53 ERA). Cahill was LA's Opening Day starter (the second Opening Day start of his career) and has lasted exactly six innings in each of his first three starts, allowing a total of just three runs over his last two, after allowing four in a 4-0 Opening Day loss to Oakland. Cahill made only 20 starts last season while with Oakland, as he spent the first month in the minors and also made a visit to the disabled list. That said, Cahill's seven wins were his most since going 8-10 for Arizona in 2013. It's seems like a lifetime ago that he was 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA (it was actually, 2010). Miller was 15-9 for St Louis back in 2013 but he's never reached those heights, since. He left for Atlanta and went 6-17 in 2015 and then 3-12 in 2016. In 2017 and 2018, he made just nine appearances (eight starts). Miller has stumbled out of the gate with Texas, allowing six runs in 5.2 innings through his first two starts, issuing eight walks while fanning only three as a Ranger. He's now 0-5 with a 10.38 ERA in seven games (six starts) over the last two seasons for Texas. Miller has not pitched since he was chased after two innings at Los Angeles back on April 7, when he allowed four ERS on four hits and three walks. That left him 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime v the Angels (two starts). LA handled Texas last season, wining 13 of 19 games and has opened 3-1 against the Rangers in 2019. Doing the math, that's 16-7 (plus-$766 @ 100/game). Even more to a support a play on LA is the fact that Cahill, who has thrown 123.0 innings against the Rangers (more than against any other team), will take a career 11-4 record with a 3.22 ERA against Texas in 20 starts (teams are 16-4). "Gotta" play LA in this one, even without Trout! Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 123-145 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:00 ET. The Brooklyn Nets finished 42-40 to earn the East's No. 6 seed. It's the team's first playoff appearance since 2015, with the team entering this season off years of 21, 20 and 28 wins. Brooklyn guards D'Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie combined for 67 points on Saturday, leading the Nets to a 111-102 victory in Philadelphia over the 76ers to seize homecourt advantage away from the No. 3 seed. The 76ers saw Jimmy Butler score 36 points and Joel Embiid add 22 and 15 rebounds in his return from a knee issue, but they were a woeful 3-of-25 (12.0%) from three-point range. LeVert paced a 59-point attack for the Brooklyn's bench combined for 59 points in Game 1, getting 23 very productive minutes (23 points) from LeVert, roughly two months into his return from a dislocated foot. D'Angelo Russell started slowly by missing 12 of his first 15 shots but led the Nets with 26 points. The key to Game 1 for Brooklyn was its reserves outscoring Philly's by a 59-26 margin by adding 23 points. Four Brooklyn reserves played at least 20 minutes. Butler was terrific but while and Embiid had 22 & 15, it was 'quiet' 22 as he missed 10 of 15 shots. He also seemed to shay away from the physical play of Brooklyn's big men. Philadelphia saw its other three starters, Tobias Harris (18.2 & 7.9), JJ Redick (18.1) and Ben Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) combined for only 18 points on 8 of 23 shooting (34.8%). Philly heard plenty of boos in Game 1 (the 76ers trailed by as many as 16 points) and need to start strong in Game 2. The Nets are back in the postseason for the first time since 2015 and a win would mark the first time the team has held a 2-0 lead in a series since sweeping the New York Knicks in the opening round of the 2004 postseason. Philly was 31-10 at home during the regular season by averaging 117.9 PPG. I just don't see Brooklyn's reserves can possibly match their Game 1 performance plus expect Philly's starters to rebound. Philly shot 35.9% (8th) from three-point range on the season, so NO WAY we'll see another 3-of-25 effort. Also, Philly missed 13 FTs in Game 1. 76ers bounce back in a big way in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Mets v. Phillies -114 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. MLB's fourth week opens with the 9-5 Philadelphia Phillies a half-game up on the Mets and Braves (both 9-6) plus two games clear of the 7-7 Nationals (it figures to be a four-team race well into September). The Phillies outlasted Miami 3-1 in 14 innings on Sunday to take two of three in that road series and return home for a three-games series with the Mets. New York began its 10-game road trip with a pair of victories in Atlanta but settled for a split of the four-game series after reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom produced his second straight sub-par performance in Sunday's 7-3 setback (Mets lost Saturday, 11-7). Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 4.74 ERA) will get the ball for New York, opposed by the Phils' Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.46 ERA). Syndergaard picked up his first win of the season on Wednesday, despite surrendering four runs over seven innings against Minnesota. Syndergaard has 20-2 KW ratio in three 2019 starts (19 innings) . He is 5-3 with a 3.23 ERA in 10 career starts vs Philadelphia (Mets are 6-4). Nola developed into Philadelphia's ace last season, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA ()Phils were 22-11 in his starts, plus-$983 vs the moneyline). However, after an impressive effort against Atlanta in his season debut (he did walk five in the 10-4 win), he's struggled in back-to-back starts vs Washington. He allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 12 hits (including 5 HRs) vs the Nats over just 9.1 innings. He did escape both outings without suffering a loss but Philly lost both games. However, there is every reason to expect Nola to bounce back here, as he he is 6-1 with a 3.35 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets (Phils are 7-2). That includes a 4-0 record with a 2.15 ERA in six starts last season (he struck out 46 in 37.2 innings) against New York. Yes, the Mets have won two of Syndergaard's three 2019 starts, but in those two team wins, he's allowed eight ERs on 12 hits over 13 IP (5.54 ERA). While Nola was shutting down the Mets in 2019 (see above), Syndergaard owned a 5.75 ERA in four starts against the Phillies. Good luck...Larry |
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04-15-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -124 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the Car Hurricanes at 7:00 ET. The Carolina Hurricanes lost Game 1 at Washington 4-2 and then went toe-to-toe with the defending Stanley Cup champs in Game 2, before Caps veteran Brooks Orpik scored 1:48 into overtime Saturday to give Washington a 4-3 victory and a 2-0 lead. I was just Orpik's fourth goal in his 151st playoff game! The Hurricanes have seen a pair of late rallies fall short in the first two games of this first-round series, after losing all FOUR regular-season meetings with Washington. Tonight,playoff hockey returns to Raleigh, NC for the first time since May 26, 2009. Ncklas Backstrom scored twice to highlight the Capitals' three-goal first period in Thursday's 4-2 win and joined T.J. Oshie with first-period goal on Saturday. Alex Ovechkin had an NHL-best 51 goals this season and has a goal plus two assists in the first two games. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby began last year's playoffs on the bench but retutrned to lead the Caps to their first-ever Cup. The former Vezina Trophy recipient has turned aside 196 of 209 shots in his last seven contests (7-0-0), giving him a .938 save percentage. FOUR of those victories have come against Carolina. Carolina's leading goal scorer Sebastian Aho (30 goals and 83 points) scored late in the second period, snapping a 15-game goal drought. "It's not like we're playing bad, but this time of year, you've got to get that extra step and play even better," he said after the game. For teh Hurricanes to get back in the series, goaltender Petr Mrazek has to do a better job than him turning away 43 of 50 shots as he's done in Games 1 & 2 (.860 SP). The key to Game 3 will likely be Carolina getting off to a better start, as Washington holds a 5-1 combined edge in first-period scoring. Let me remind all that Washington was only five points better than Carolina during the regular season, so down 0-2, I see no reason why the Hurricanes can't beat the Caps for the first time in SEVEN tries in this one. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Jazz v. Rockets -6 | 90-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insideris on the Hou Rockets at 9:30 ET. The Houston Rockets won an NBA-best 67 games last season and led the Warriors 3-2 in the Western Conference finals, before Chris Paul missed Games 6 and 7, which Golden St won. While last year's MVP James Harden had another MVP-like season this year (36.1-6.6-7.5), the Rockets finished a much more modest 53-29, leaving them with the No. 4 seed in the West. In fact, the Rockets had the No. 3 seed in its sights in their final game of the regular season, before OKC came back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to nip Houston at the buzzer, 112-11.The Jazz followed last year's 48-34 record by going 50-32 this season, entering the playoffs as the West's No. 5 seed for the second straight year (Utah ousted No. 4 seed OKC last year in six games). The Rockets then handled the Jazz fairly easily in the second round of last season's playoffs, taking the series 4-1 with Houston's wins coming by 14, 21, 13 and 10 points. The teams split four regular-season meetings this season, with each team recording one road victory. The Jazz have an excellent starting-five in leading scorer Mitchell (23.8-4.1-4.,2), PG Rubio (12.7 & 6.1 APG), swingman Ingles (12.1-4.0-5.7), PF Favors (11.8 & 7.4) and center Gobert (15.9 & 12.9). However, Favors missed five of the team's last six games and Rubio (quadriceps) missed the final three games of the regular season (he is expected to give it a go in Game 1). Mitchell sat out the team's final regular season with a back issue and while it's hard to imagine he's not playing, he is being listed as questionable. Also, Korver (9.1 PPG off the bench) has missed the last six games with a knee injury. As noted, Harden could win a second straight MVP and is joined by Gordon (16.2) and Paul (15.6-4.6-8.2) to give Houston quite the guard trio. Both House (9.4) and Green (9.2) are also dangerous perimeter players (swingmen), who have been known to "light it up." Then there is center Clint Capela, who averaged career highs in points (16.6) and rebounds (12.7). He missed 15 games with a thumb injury (team went 5-1) but after he returned and after Houston lost his first game back (right after the All Star break), the Rockets won 20 of their final 24 games. Another major addition was PF/C Faried, who in 25 games down the stretch with Houston, averaged 12.9 & 8.2. The Jazz have too many health-related question marks entering this series to take them in Game 1. Houston's only losses in their last 24 games came by two points at home to Golden St, by one-point in OT at Memphis, by six points at Milwaukee (owners of the NBA's best record) and then that one-point disaster in Game 82 at OKC. The Rockets want that rematch with Golden St and will get it a round earlier than they had hoped but first they need to take care of business vs the Jazz. I always take the playoffs (and each series) one game at a time and off of last year's results, I really like the Rockets here in Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Jets +140 v. Blues | 6-3 | Win | 140 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Win Jets at 7:38 ET. The St. Louis Blues came into the playoffs with momentum, having finished the regular season by going 30-10-5 since Jan. 1. St Louis’ fortunes turned around with the emergence of goaltender Jordan Binnington, who did not make his first NHL start until Jan 7. Binnington had played one game for the Blues in 2015-16 but set a franchise record for wins by a rookie, while finishing 24-5-1 with a league-leading 1.89 GAA (also had an impressive .927 save percentage). As the Blues return home for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round series against the Winnipeg Jets, they are up 2-0. St Louis win Game 1 at Winnipeg 2-1 and pulled off another road victory Friday, using two goals from center Oskar Sundqvist to upend the Jets 4-3 on Ryan O’Reilly’s game winner early in the third period. The Jets were a popular Stanley Cup preseason favorite after reaching the conference finals last spring and they led the Western Conference in early January. However, the Jets would go 16-16-3 down the stretch in the regular season (since Jan 19), losing the Central Division title to Nashville in the final two weeks. Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck has surrendered ill-timed and dubious goals in the first two games. Hellebuyck made 28 saves in Game 2 but gave up two soft goals, including the winner by Ryan O'Reilly in Friday's Game 2. Hellebuyck has a .897 save percentage in two games Meanwhile, Binnington has become the second rookie goaltender in franchise history (Curtis Joseph, 1990) to win his first two career playoff starts. He is only the fourth NHL goalie in the past 32 years to win each of his first two playoff road games. He has saved 50 of 54 shots (.926 save percentage) with a 2.00 goals-against average in those two games. It's not just Binnington, as St Louis outshot the Jets 15-6 in the second period overall and held Winnipeg without a shot for 13:34, a stretch during which the Blues scored twice to take a 3-2 lead. Here's the rub. There's not much difference between these two clubs and I'm "all over" the underdog in this spot. As for Hellebuyck, he said, "I'm going to remain positive here. It's only 2-0. There's a lot of hockey left to be played. We've got to focus on getting four, and so do they. We're going to continue fighting." Head coach Paul Maurice added, "I think he's gonna be great (Sunday). I truly do. That's his career. If he had an off night, he got a little snarly, and he's been good. I expect him to be at his best." Blake Wheeler told the Winnipeg Sun, "At this time of year you've got to get results. So, go to St. Louis and take care of business," "You've got to win four games to win a series. Never met any team that won two to win a series, so we're all right." Teams that take a 2-0 series lead have gone on to win that series 87.3 percent of the time in NHL history. That said, the Blues are expecting a fired up Jets team. "This is a real good hockey team that we beat twice here -- a really good hockey team -- and they are going to give us their best game, Game 3 at home," Blues interim head coach Craig Berube said. "And there's no reason to get too high. You've got to stay ready and you gotta play even better than we've played." While Hellebuyck has let the team down a few times in the first two games, he has shut down the Blues' power play, which is 0-for-7 in the series. The Blues' penalty kill unit also gave up two power-play goals in three chances during Game 2. "The worm turns" in this one and we are getting a nice 'price' on the Jets. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Lightning -132 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the TB Lightning at 7:00 ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning matched an NHL record for wins in a regular season (62) but after blowing a 3-0 lead through the first period of their Game 1 with Columbus, the lightning have been outscored a 9-1 in the last five periods by the Blue Jackets. Columbus earned a comeback 4-3 win on Wednesday and then in Friday's Game 2, took a 3-0 first period lead on the way to a 5-1 win. What's going on here? The Presidents’ Trophy-winning haven't aced much adversity this season but it's a "whole new ballgame" tonight going into Game 3 of the Easrtern Conference first-round series against the host Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus has clogged the neutral zone, holding the lightning to just one goal the last five periods, while NINE players have scored one goal apiece for the Blue Jackets.During that stretch, goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has stopped 39 of the 40 shots he's faced. What's more, while the Blue Jackets were just 28th in the regular season on the power play, they are 3-for-6 (50.0%) in the series. "We’re in a tough position, but we’re not going to quit,” Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos said. “We’ve got to take a page out of their book and go on the road and win a hockey game. We just got to focus on Game 3." Making Tampa Bay's situation even tougher is the fact that they won’t have the league’s leading scorer Nikita Kucherov (128 points), who was suspended one game for an illegal hit. So here's the bottom line. Tampa Bay dominated Columbus in the regular season, outscoring them 17-3. Tampa Bay crushed the competition on the way to a record-tying 62-win season and lost consecutive games just twice, a pair of regulation losses in November and a set of overtime games in February. The Lightning haven't lost three straight all season and went 30-9-2 on the road for the year (no other team won more than 25 road games). The Blue Jackets have NEVER won a playoff series and were also up 2-0 last year in the opening round against the Capitals (won 1st two games in Washington), before the Caps rallied for four consecutive wins on the way to the team's first Stanley Cup. Deja vu? Maybe but "FOR SURE," I'm on Tampa Bay in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -137 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers at 4:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers came to LA to exact a bit of revenge from the Los Angeles Dodgers, who beat them in the 2018 NLCS. Bothe teams opened the current season 8-2 and then faltered. The Brewers lost three staright in Anaheim to the Angels to open the week but have won teh first two of this three-game series with the Dodgers (Brewers are 10-5). LA opened the week by suffering a four-game sweep at St Louis and has yet to 'stop the bleeding' back in LA, losing 8-5 on Friday to Milwaukee and then 4-1 last night (Dodgers are now 8-8). Los Angeles starters allowed 21 runs over 21 innings in the first five contests of the team's now six-game slide, before reliever Caleb Ferguson allowed just one run in 2.2 innings while serving as "the opener" on Saturday. Jhoulys Chacin (2-1, 4.24 ERA) gets the nod for Milwaukee and Ross Stripling (0-1, 3.78ERA) for the Dodgers. Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA in 2018, the best overall season in his 10-year major league career (Brewers were 23-12 in all of his starts, +$1,079 vs the moneyline). He allowed five runs over 10.2 innings in winning his first two starts of the season and then allowed three runs, three hits (two HRs) and three walks in 6.1 innings of a 5-2 loss at the Los Angeles Angels on Monday. It could be noteworthy that Chacin was 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA after three starts a year ago before finishing with a career year! Stripling allowed four runs, five hits and three walks while striking out seven in five innings of 4-0 loss at St Louis on Tuesday, after allowing three runs over 11.1 innings in his first two starts in a pair of no-decisions (team was 1-1). Chacin faced the Dodgers twice in the NLCS last October. He threw 5.1 shutout innings in a 4-0 win in Game 3 and then came back five days later for Game 7 and only went two innings, allowing just a two-run HR to Cody Bellinger before handing the game over to the bullpen in the 5-1 loss. Chacin spent the first seven years of his career in the NL West with the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks, so he has faced the Dodgers more than any other major league team. He's 11-9 in 26 regular-season appearances (25 starts / teams are 14-11) against Los Angeles with a 4.41 ERA. Stripling has made three appearances against the Brewers in his career, including one start. He does not have a decision, NOR has he allowed a run in five total innings against Milwaukee. The Dodgers haven't lost seven in a row since an 11-game losing streak from Sep. 2-11, 2017, which was the longest skid since the team arrived in Los Angeles in 1957. "We're going to be fine," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the loss on Saturday night. "It's not how you want to get to 8-8, but I'm really not too concerned with the results that have happened. I just think we have to continue to pitch well, get ahead, play defense like we've been playing and take those good at-bats, and it'll turn." I'm 'betting' with Dave. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 4:10 ET. The San Diego Padres have won four straight and sit atop the NL West standings with an 11-5 record. It represents San Diego's best start to a season since 1998 (Padres made the World Series that year!). San Diego now looks to complete a four game sweep of the 6-9 D'backs in Arizona. San Diego won 5-4 last night, using six relievers in the victory. Its bullpen is second in the National League in innings pitched (relievers are 6-0 and have 10 saves in 13 chances). As for Arizona, the D'backs have lost four in a row (and five of six), after going 3-for-16 with RISP. San Diego lefty Eric Lauer (2-1, 4.76 ERA) takes the mound opposite Arizona's Zack Greinke (1-1, 7.16) ERA). Lauer is a former first-round selection and despite allowing five runs over six innings against San Francisco on Monday, he earned his second victory after the Padres rallied from that early deficit to win 6-5. This marks Lauer's fourth career start against the Diamondbacks (he 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in his first three outings / team is 2-1). Greinke received a no-decision Tuesday, after allowing four runs (three earned) with nine strikeouts over 6.2 innings against Texas. The five-time All-Star (and former Cy Young winner) has struggled early in his first three starts, giving up NINE of the 14 runs he’s allowed in the first two innings. Greinke has served up four HRs and seven runs in just 3.2 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first start and then San Diego tagged him for two more on April 2 (Arizona won 8-5)' He has allowed six HRs in 16.1 innings this season, with a 7.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .324 BAA. All that said, I still have to look to Arizona to avoid a four-game home sweep. Despite some 'ugly' numbers (see above), let me note that Greinke also owns a 22-3 KW ratio in his 16.1 innings this season. What's more, he's an impressive 12-2 with a 2.29 ERA in 23 career starts vs San Diego (teams are 17-6). As for Lauer, "big innings" have been a problem, as he not only allowed five runs in the fourt inning in his last start but he allowed four runs in the fourth inning of an 8-5 loss to Arizona on April 2. Greinke "gets it right" and the D'backs avoid the sweep. Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 3:30 ET. The Blazers opened March 1-3 but won 14 of their last 17 games to clinch the No. 3 in the West at 53-29 (edged the Rockets in a tie-breaker). The Thunder seemed headed for the West's No. 8 seed (and a first-round series with the Warriors) but OKC ended the season on a five-game winning streak to finish 49-33, one game better than the Spurs (No. 7) and Clippers (No. 8). The series will feature star PGs Damian Lillard (25.8-4.6-8.9) and Russell Westbrook (22.9-11.1-10.7). Lillard averaged 34.8 points and 7.8 assists while Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the teams' four regular season games. However, OKC took all FOUR of the regular season meetings. Paul George (28.0-8.2-4.1), not Westbrook, led the team in scoring this season. However, he is struggling with right shoulder soreness. He insists that he will play in the opener. George was superb against Portland in the regular season with averages of 38 points and 10.5 rebounds and said the postseason is no time to sit with an injury. "It's playoff time, so it's more than this, it's about being out there with my guys," George told reporters. "As much as I can get it a hundred (percent) as possible, or close to it, you can expect me out there Sunday." Portland has a key player with an injury question as well. Lillard's backcourt partner CJ McCollum (21.0) missed 10 games late in the season with a knee injury and didn't fare well upon his return, averaging 10.0 PPG in two games before being rested in the season finale. He made just 8-of-26 shots (30.1%), including 2-of-11 form three-point range. "I feel good, I feel like I'm ready to play, looking forward to the playoffs," McCollum told reporters. "I'm glad I was able to get back and get a couple of games in, get a few game minutes in before the playoffs start. ... My wind is fine, no minutes restrictions." The season-ending ending injury to Portland center Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) was expected to be a 'killer,' but Enes Kanter has been a 'savior,' averaging 13.1 & 8.6 in his 23 games for the Blazers (team went 18-5 in those game). Portland will rely on Kanter to combat OKC center Steven Adams (13.8 & 9.5), his former Thunder teammate. A closer look at OKC's closing five-game winning streak revels wins over the Lakers, Pistons and T-wolves (no big deal there), the team's miracle comeback from 14 down vs Houston and a season-ending win at Milwaukee, when the Bucks rested all their starters. Just prior to that stretch, OKC had gone 7-13 SU and a money-burning 5-15 ATS in its previous 20 games. As noted above, Portland closed its season on a 14-3 SU run, including eight straight home wins. Average winning margin in Portland's last 14 victories was 11.0 PPG. Forget the regular season, Portland was 32-9 SU at home, averaging 118.2 PPG with an average winning margin of just shy of nine points per. The Blazers win this one with "room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-14-19 | Indians -136 v. Royals | 8-9 | Loss | -136 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cle Indians at 2:15 ET. The Kansas City Royals began the 2019 season with back-to-back wins over the White Sox but then lost 10 in a row. FIVE of those 10 losses came by just one run and finally KC's 'luck' turned, as the Royals have taken the first two of a three-game home series wit the Indians (8-1 and 3-0). The 5-0 Royals now look to complete a the sweep on Sunday, vs a Cleveland team which entered this series on a 6-1 tear. The same pitching staff that had served the Indians so well during that 6-1 stretch leading into this series, has been roughed up for 11 runs on 20 hits by the Royals Friday and Saturday. Cleveland's offense has gone dormant, scoring just one in the two games, managing only two hits in Saturday's shut out loss (both by Brad Miller). Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Cleveland's Corey Kluber (1-2, 3.86 ERA) and KC's Jakob Junis (1-1, 5.74 ERA). Kluber was a hard-luck loser in his season debut against Minnesota after permitting only two runs on four hits over seven innings but he lasted only 3.1 innings and was ripped for six runs (four earned) in an 8-3 home loss to the Chicago White Sox in his second start. However, he had a strong winning effort Tuesday in Detroit, allowing two runs (just one earned) while striking out eight across six innings in an 8-2 Cleveland victory. Junis had made 50 appearances (46 starts) the last two seasons for KC with an ERA of just over 4.00. Junis continued to record strikeouts at an impressive rate in his last outing (Tuesday in a loss against Seattle) but he allowed four runs on eight hits in four innings. He fanned six batters in the four-inning outing and has recorded 20 strikeouts over 15.2 innings, yet he has surrendered at least three runs in each of his starts, hence the 5.74 ERA Kluber owns a 3.26 ERA in 25 career starts vs the Royals and the two-time Cy Young winner (who has piled up 56 wins over the past three seasons), is 7-2 with a 2.70 ERA in his last 11 starts against Kansas City. I'm not sure why people are so high on Junis, who is 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) versus Cleveland. I'm sure not and I'll note that he's backed by a bullpen, that even after 4.1 shutout innings on Friday and Saturday, owns an 0-6 record with a 5.64 ERA . The KC lineup which will face Kluber went 39-74 vs righties last year, averaging a poor 4.0 RPG (went 5-12 in home day games vs righties). Kluber and the Indians get the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Playoff Opener is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs are playoff regulars, as 2019 marks the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The second-seeded Nuggets will be ending a five-year playoff drought when they host the Spurs in Saturday's opener of the Western Conference first-round series. The seventh-seeded Spurs enter this series having won their last three games and six of their past nine (big deal?). "We ended off strong," guard DeMar DeRozan (21.2-6.0-6.2) told reporters. "Our confidence is high. ... I think we've got our mindset where it's supposed to be heading into the playoffs." All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, led the Spurs in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the season, plus averaged 22.3 points and shot 55.7 percent from the floor in four games against Denver this season (home team won all four). San Antonio has two guards who finished among the top five in three-pointers by a reserve in Patty Mills (third with 155) and Marco Belinelli (fifth with 145) but San Antonio's overall depth is NOT what it used to be. In contrast, Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. All-Star center Nikola Jokic will be the focal point after posting the second-most double-doubles (56) and triple-doubles (12) in franchise history,. He led the team in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) on the season. PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.2-4.8) and behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus five more, averaging between 5.7 and 8.7 PPG (including "IT" who has played just 12 games this season, after playing in two of the team's six April games). Sure, the Spurs are the more experienced team and Pop is Pop but, this is NOT your father's Spurs. "There's an excitement (about the playoffs)," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "This is a new challenge for our guys. We're going to embrace it, we're looking forward to it. We'll see what we can do." Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home, after going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. One last thing. The Spurs have gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 219. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Bruins at 8:08 ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs have suffered a pair of demoralizing Game 7 losses in Boston but opened this year's best-of-seven opening round series against the Bruins with an emphatic 4-1 Game 1 win on Thursday in Boston. Mitch Marner scored twice, the first to erase a first-period deficit, and the second to give the Leafs the lead for good after he was brought down from behind by Jake DeBrusk on a short-handed breakaway. "We're a different team. We've got a little more confidence in this room and we're ready to play with it," said the 21-year-old Marner, who scored twice to help Toronto secure its first series-opening victory since 2003. John Tavares, a key free-agent acquisition in the offseason, collected a goal and an assist on Thursday, boosting his playoff point total to 24 (12 goals, 12 assists) in 25 career games. "When you get a power play, you want to get something good out of it and get some momentum. Obviously, that did the opposite. ... That can't happen," said Patrice Bergeron, who scored with the man advantage for Boston's lone goal. However, after Bergeron's goal, the Maple Leafs outskated and outplayed the Bruins the rest of the game. However, the Bruins won their first-round playoff series 4-3 over the Maple Leafs last year and also took the season series 3-1 with the Maple Leafs this regular season. The Boston Bruins must turn over the page instead of turning over the puck Saturday night. Why should we expect anything less? Only Tampa Bay accumulated more points this regular season than Boston's 107 and only the Lightning (32-7-2) had a better home record than the Bruins' 29-90-3 mark. Boston must be well aware that the Lightning's record-tying season is now on 'life-support' after two home losses and Boston surely wants to avoid a similar scenario. Boston has history on its side against Toronto, having beaten the Maple Leafs in each of the last five times the teams have squared off in the playoffs. Boston can't win the series tonight but the Bruins can "get back in it." The Bruins' top line of Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak dominated the Maple Leafs in the playoffs last year. Expect a "repeat scenario" tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-19 | Mets v. Braves -130 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. I've said from the start that the NL East figures to be a four-team race for most, if not all, of 2019. The 9-4 Mets lead the 8-4 Phillies at the moment and New York is taking advantage of an early-season schedule full of games against its NL East rivals. The Mets won in Atlanta 6-3 on Thursday and followed last night with a 6-2 victory. They are now 8-3 against division competition and EIGHT of their next 11 games will come against division rivals. In the process, the Mets have been scoring runs in bunches, as Friday's 6-2 win allowed them to match a franchise record by scoring at least six runs in their sixth straight game. In contrast, 7-6 Atlanta (2018's division winner) dropped to 2-6 against NL East foes after Friday’s defeat. Saturday's pitching matchup will feature a battle of lefties, Jason Vargas (1-0, 9.00 ERA) for New York and Sean Newcomb (0-0, 1.64 ERA) for Atlanta. Vargas signed with the Mets for two-years and $16 million plus an $8 million option for a third year in Feb of 2018 but he suffered a broken right hand in March of 2018 and missed the first month of the season. He was once again placed on the disabled list in July with a calf injury and finished a disappointing 7-9 (5.77 ERA). He won his one start so far this season, getting the win on April 2 at Miami in allowing two runs on eight hits with two strikeouts in five innings. However, he saw his next start skipped in the rotation as a means to keep reigning NL Cy Young Award recipient Jacob deGrom on schedule. Vargas was on the mound this past Tuesday for his first relief appearance since 2009, surrendering FOUR runs on four hits in just one inning against Minnesota. So much for coming out of the bullpen! Newcomb was a solid 12-9 (3.90 ERA) for Atlanta last season, allowing just 137 hits in 164 IP. He had a shaky first start in 2019 (allowed six hits and four walks in four innings but ZERO runs) but Atlanta would win, 8-0 over the Cubs. He then pitched very well Sunday against Miami, giving up two runs on four hits with two walks and two strikeouts in seven innings of a 4-3 Atlanta win. He's yet to earn a decision but the Braves are 2-0 in his 2019 starts. Vargas is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in six career appearances, five starts (teams are 3-2), against Atlanta. I'm expecting those Atlanta bats to wake up here. As for Newcomb, he went 1-0 in three starts against the Mets a season ago, posting an ERA of 1.00 with eight walks and 21 strikeouts in 18 innings, giving him a 1.82 ERA against the Mets in six career starts. No six runs in this game for the Mets, as Newcomb leads Atlanta to the win. Good luck...Larry |
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04-13-19 | Stars v. Predators -150 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Nas Predators at 6:08 ET. The Dallas Stars claimed the seventh seed by finishing 5-1-1 to grab the first wild card in the West for the Stars' first playoff berth since 2016. That set up a first round series with the second-seeded Nashville Predators, who won five of their last six to games capture their second straight division title with a win on the final night of the season. This series marked the first time these Central Division rivals have met in the postseason. The Predators entered the series with much more playoff experience, after reaching the 2017 Stanley Cup Final and going a full seven games last spring before losing in the second round. However, Dallas won twice during the regular season in Nashville, despite losing three of five meetings to the Predators. Nashville took a 1-0 lead in Game 1 but Dallas overcame that early deficit to post a 3-2 win in Wednesday's series opener. One of the major concerns entering the series for Nashville was a power play that finished the regular season with a league-worst 12.9 percent success rate. It remained an issue after the Predators came up empty on all four chances in Game 1. However, the team's lack of success also had a lot to do with Dallas goalie Ben Bishop (1.98 GAA and .934 SP in the regular season). Bishop stood tall by making 30 saves in his first playoff game in three years. Nashville's veteran goaltender Pekka Rinne was not nearly as sharp, as he lost for the fifth time in his last six playoff starts at home. The Stars have already stolen home-ice advantage in their Western Conference first-round series and they now have an opportunity to take a commanding lead in their best-of-seven set by winning Game 2. Nashville is 0-9 in playoff series after losing Game 1 but the question here is NOT who wins the series but who wins Game 2. Nashville was bounced in the second round last season after winning the Presidents' Trophy but advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals two years ago by winning three road series, so the team is not overreacting to one defeat. The Predators went 35-4-1 this season when scoring first and had been 24-7 all-time when scoring first in the playoffs. Bridgestone Arena will be rocking on Saturday and expect Rinne,a postseason star for Nashville in 2017, to bounce back "big time" in this near "must-win" game. Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-19 | Blues v. Jets -110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Win Jets at 9:30 ET. St Louis goaltender Jordan Binnington did not make his first NHL start until Jan 7, 2019. He had played one game for the Blues back in 2015-16 but he would go on to set a franchise record for wins by a rookie, finishing 24-5-1 with a league-leading 1.89 GAA (also had an impressive .927 save percentage). The question going into Wednesday was how Binnington would handle the pressure of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Question answered. Binnington made 24 saves and kept his team in it until St. Louis scored twice in the game’s final 16 minutes, with his biggest save coming with 12.4 seconds remaining, as he slid across his net to deny Mark Scheifele's one-timer. The Jets were a popular Stanley Cup preseason favorite after reaching the conference finals last spring and they led the Western Conference in early January. However, the Jets would go 16-16-3 down the stretch (since Jan 19), losing the Central Division title to Nashville in the final two weeks. Once again, Winnipeg could not hold a 1-0 advantage in the final 20 minutes, allowing Tyler Bozak’s game-winning goal with just 2:05 to play. It's troubling that the Jets lost NINE games in the regular season in which they led after two periods. Patrik Laine gave Winnipeg the lead with a first-period goal but the Jets' high-powered offense was shut down by Binnington the rest of the way. Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck made 24 saves but could not hold off the Blues in the final period, losing his FIFTH consecutive playoff start (dating back to four straight losses against Vegas last season). NHL Stanley Cup history tells us teams that teams that win the first game of a best-of-seven series end up closing out a series 68.5 percent of the time. The Jets are hardly facing impossible odds against coming back and the Blues are surely no 'lock' to win, just because of their Game 1 win. That said, the Jets can ill afford to drop the next outing before the series shifts to St Louis for two games. Winnipeg won 25 home games this season and the only Western Conference team to win more was Calgary (26), which led the West with 107 points. It's not a "must-win" scenario but it's pretty close. I had the Blues in Game 1 but it's the Jets in Game 2. Good luck...Larry |
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04-12-19 | A's -111 v. Rangers | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers were 67-95 in 2018, finishing a whopping 36 games back of the division-winning Astros. However, the Rangers took two out of three games in its first two home series of 2019 against two recent world champions, the Chicago Cubs (Mar 28-31) and Houston Astros (Apr 1-3). However, Texas needed a 5-2 win Wednesday at Arizona to wrap its six-game road trip at 2-4 (victory snapped a four-game slide). Texas now opens a nine-game homestand, as the Oakland A's visit Arlington Friday to continue their 10-game road trip. Oakland dropped the first four contests of its trip (0-3 at Houston), before breezing to three consecutive victories in Baltimore, while scoring 31 runs on 38 hits after losing 12-4 on Monday. Mike Fiers (2-1, 5.94 ERA) gets the ball for Oakland and he'll be opposed by the Rangers' Drew Smyly (0-1, 7.11 ERA). Fiers is already making his fifth start of the season (A's are 2-2). He's had a Jekyll & Hyde start to 2019, allowing 11 ERs over just five innings in the two losses, while not allowing a single run in tossing six scoreless innings against both Boston and the LA Angels in his two 2019 wins. Texas has scored just one run in each of Smyly's first two starts but run support is not his biggest problem. The lefty, who made a career-high 30 starts last year, lasted just three innings in his 2019 debut vs Houston and then got roughed up for four runs on six hits over 3.1 innings in a loss at the Angels in his second start. Smyly (7.11 ERA / 2.37 WHIP / .345 BAA) has not faced Oakland since July 2016 and is 1-2 (4.09 ERA) in four career starts vs Oakland (teams are 1-3). Smyly faces an Oakland team which comes in having just amassed 31 runs on 38 hits (12 HRs) in the final three games of their series against the Orioles. Oakland was 15-7 against lefties in road night games last year, averaging 6.1 RPG. Texas was just 20-31 at home vs right-handers last season, losing $1,270 vs the moneyline. Yes, Fiers allowed six runs on seven hits in only 1.2 innings at Houston last Sunday but let's not be too quick to forget what he accomplished last season. After Fiers was acquired by the A's from Detroit last August for two players to be named later, he helped pitch the A's into the playoffs, as the A's went 8-1 in his nine starts. Throw in his team record of 13-8 with Detroit and Fiers was 21-9 in team starts in 2018, giving him MLB's top moneyline mark of plus-$1,897! Oakland is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-19 | Mets +113 v. Braves | Top | 6-3 | Win | 113 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the NY Mets at 7:20 ET. The 7-4 Mets open a four-game series in Atlanta against the 7-4 Braves. The two teams enter the series tied atop the NL East with the 7-4 Phillies, while the 6-5 Nats lurk. This could very well be a four-team battle for a good part of the 2019 season in the NL East. This series begins a daunting 10-game road trip for the Mets, with the first four contests coming against the defending National League East champion Braves, who won 13 of 19 encounters last season against the Mets. The Mets ended a two-game skid Wednesday with a 9-6 home victory over Minnesota, as rookie 1B Pete Alonso finished with two walks, a run scored and an RBI in the victory (he's batting .366 with 5 HRs, with 15 RBI through 11 games). RF Michael Conforto has at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games with seven multi-hit games in that span, and has driven in eight runs in his past four contests. The Braves opened the season by losing all three games of their series at Philadelphia but have rebounded to win SEVEN of their eight, before the scheduled series finale at Colorado was postponed Wednesday due to snow. Atlanta pitchers allowed 23 runs in three games at Philadelphia but have allowed only 22 during the team's 7-1 run (team ERA of 2.63). SS Dansby Swanson is showing why he was an overall No. 1 draft pick. As the Braves open a four-game home series Thursday against the New York Mets, Swanson has a .324 BA with 4 HRs and 15 RBI through 11 games. New York lefty Steven Matz (0-0, 0.87 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets and will go up against Kevin Gausman (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Matz struggled with control in his last start Saturday against Washington, walking four hitters in five innings, but has only allowed just one run (an unearned one at that) over a total of 10.1 innings with 11 strikeouts in two winless starts, although the Mets are 2-0 in his starts. That said, Matz should enter this contest with confidence, knowing he is 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in seven career starts against the Braves (Mets are 5-2). Gausman was just 5-8 (4.43 ERA) in 21 starts for Baltimore last season (Orioles were 6-15, -$967 in his 21 starts) but after getting 'rescued' by the Braves, went 5-3 (2.87 ERA) in 10 starst (Atlanta went 7-3). Gausman battled shoulder soreness that forced him to miss the first week of the season, but he held Miami to just two hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in seven scoreless innings last Friday. Matz not only has a solid career record against Atlanta but he'll face an Atlanta lineup which went 2-11 at home last season vs lefties in night games, while averaging just 3.0 RPG. Meanwhile, Gausman lost his only start against the Mets last season, surrendering three runs on six hits in five innings. That leaves him 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in two career outings against them. Matz has gone a team-record eight straight starts without getting a decision but New York is a profitable 6-2 in those starts. I have a feeling Matz gets the "W" here but either way, expect the Mets to get that "W!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-11-19 | Dodgers -140 v. Cardinals | 7-11 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Dodgers at 1:15 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the 2019 season 8-2, while averaging 8.4 RPG. However, the six-time defending NL West champs have 'hit a wall' in St Louis this week, losing the first three of a four-game series with the Cardinals. St Louis pitching has held LA to a total of just FIVE runs and the Cardinals take the field this afternoon looking to complete a four-game sweep of the Dodgers, while extending their overall winning streak to five in a row (Cards have won four straight in which they have outscored their opponents 19-6). Thursday's pitching matchup will feature LA's Walker Buehler (1-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Cards' Michael Wacha (0-0, 1.54 ERA). Buehler was taken 24th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft and exploded on the MLB scene late last season. Buehler finished 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) on the season but was "something special" the last two months of the year. Buehler took the mound in Game No. 163 against the Rockies last October and allowed just one hit in 6.2 scoreless innings as LA clinched a sixth straight NL West title with a 5-2 win. That game was the 12th time in Buehler's final 13 regular season starts in which he had held an opponent to two ERs or less. Buehler had a poor season opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks, allowing five runs (matching a carer high) and five hits in three innings, but avoided the loss when the Dodgers rallied to win 8-7. He then bounced back with five strong innings at the Colorado Rockies on Saturday, allowing just one run on three hits in a 7-2 win. Wacha is coming off an injury-interrupted 2018 season but it was one in which he still manged an 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. He opened the season with six solid innings in a no-decision at Milwaukee (struck out seven and allowed one run in a game the Cards lost 5-4) and then struggled with his command in the Cardinals' 6-4 loss to San Diego on Saturday, when he threw 119 pitches over 5.2 innings. However, he allowed just one run on three hits with seven strikeouts. . Wacha gained notoriety when he beat the Dodgers twice in a six-day span to help clinch the 2013 NLCS (he did not allow a run over a combined 13.2 innings in Game 2 and the deciding Game 6). However, he hasn't had much success against Los Angeles since then, posting a 1-4 mark with a 5.46 ERA. He takes the mound today, having walked a career-high EIGHT in his last outing. As for Buehler, he missed out on a win when the Dodgers gave up a run in the eighth and two in the ninth in the 3-1 loss in Los Angeles back on Aug 22 last season and then blanked the Cardinals on two hits over eight innings in a 3-0 victory in St Louis on Sep 14. Doing the math, that's 12 scoreless innings while allowing just FIVE hits and striking out 18! No sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-19 | Wolves v. Nuggets -11.5 | Top | 95-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Finale is on the Den Nuggets at 10:35 ET. Here's what I wrote yesterday in taking the Jazz over the Nuggets as my NBA Game of the Week. "I don't understand Denver's Malone sitting Jokic, Murray and Millsap, so won't try to. Who will he play here? Here's what I know. With Sunday's loss at Portland, the Nuggets are 1-9 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1." The Jazz won 118-108, as the Nuggets fell to 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. It appeared that Denver had squandered an opportunity to nail down the No. 2 seed by losing its last two games but the Nuggets got some improbable help from Oklahoma City. The Thunder trailed the Rockets at home by 14 points with 9:08 remaining but stunned Houston 112-111, with Paul George delivering the final blow, nailing the game-winning three-pointer with 1.8 seconds left. The Rockets have finished the regular season 53-29, meaning the 53-28 Nuggets can claim the No. 2 seed by beating the 36-45 Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at Pepsi Center. "We haven't rested anybody in four years," head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "We had a crazy schedule, we had six games in nine nights, it was unbelievably hard, and all those guys were nursing injuries. We're playing everybody tonight. For people in Houston and people in Denver to be thinking that we are resting people because we intentionally lost so we could avoid a matchup is very wrong, very erroneous reporting." The Nuggets didn't sit anybody on Tuesday but Malone used a lot of his bench against the Jazz. They were within four points midway through the fourth period but the Jazz went on a 16-2 run to put it away. As for Jokic, who lead the team in scoring (19.9), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3), he's played only 16 minutes over the last two games in the hope he will be fresh for the Denver Nuggets' first playoff appearance in six years. The strategy might have paid off in a big way, thanks to some help from the Oklahoma City Thunder (see above). I can't imagine the Nuggets going "all-out" here with the No. 2 seed just a win away. Ironically, this marks the second straight season that these two teams wrap up the regular season against each other. Last year's game was a play-in game for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, after Denver went on a tear to tie Minnesota in the standings. However, the Timberwolves prevailed in overtime in that game, leaving the Nuggets at home for the postseason. The Timberwolves have been decent at home this season (25-16 at Target Center) but Minnesota comes into Denver having gone just 11-29 away from home. The Nuggets have "something to play for" and are 33-7 at home this season, including 25-4 in their last 29. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-19 | Blues +104 v. Jets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Stanley Cup Opener is on the StL Blues at 8:00 ET. The St Louis Blues were last in the NHL (15-18-4) back on Dec 31, had fired head coach Mike Yeo six weeks earlier, replacing him with Craig Berube, and seemed destined for a high-chance lottery spot in the NHL Draft. However, the Blues has fashioned one of the best mid-season turnarounds in NHL history. The Blues would go 30-10-5 since Jan. 1 and tied Winnipeg in the standings with 99 points. As for the Jets, a popular Stanley Cup preseason favorite after reaching the conference finals last spring, they led the Western Conference in early January. However, the Jets would go 16-16-3 down the stretch (since Jan 19), losing the Central Division title to Nashville in the final two weeks. The Jets get the home ice advantage due to winning three of four vs the Blues (all four meeting came prior to Jan 1) but as Winnipeg head coach Paul Maurice noted, "You look statistically in the back half, they're an elite team in the NHL. We've never played that team. We played them in 2018 and they were a different team." In fact, the last time these two teams met (way back on Dec 7 at Winnipeg), the Blues won 1-0. St. Louis’ fortunes turned around with the emergence of goaltender Jordan Binnington, who did not make his first NHL start until Jan 7. Binnington had played one game for the Blues in 2015-16, but set a franchise record for wins by a rookie, while finishing 24-5-1 with a league-leading 1.89 GAA (also had an impressive .927 save percentage). 'Hot' goaltenders have been known to carry a team in the Stanley Cup playoffs and my "first bet" of the 2019 playoffs is on St Louis. Good luck...Larry |
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04-10-19 | Yankees +107 v. Astros | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Yankees at 7:40 ET. The Houston Astros opened the season on the road, finishing a seven-game road trip just 2-5. However, Houston has turned things around at home by winning FIVE straight. Houston's bullpen has been a key, owning a 2.20 ERA, which is the second best in the majors in the early going. The Houston lineup has 14 HRs in 12 games overall and the Astros have produced 28 runs in the team's first five home games. New York's bullpen has let the Yankees down in the first two games of the series, as New York has owned leads into the seventh inning the first two games, before its bullpen allowed four runs in the seventh and eighth innings combined both nights. The Yankees currently sit 5-6, 3 1/2 games behind first-place Tampa Bay in the AL East. The Bronx Bombers will try to avoid a sweep as they take on the Astros in the finale Wednesday night. The Y James Paxton (1-1, 4.09 ERA) gets teh ball for New York and Collin McHugh (1-1, 2.45 ERA). New York has been saddled with several key injuries early on and got more bad news that ace right-hander Luis Severino would be shut down for six weeks with a lat strain after an MRI on Tuesday. Paxton earned the win last time out at Baltimore, despite allowing four runs on eight hits with nine strikeouts across 5.1 innings, after losing his first start while pitching better. He limited the Orioles to two runs (one earned) on four hits over 5.1 innings on March 30 in a 5-3 loss. McHugh spent all of 2018 in the bullpen and appeared in 58 games, posting 94 strikeouts in 72.1 total innings. He actually earned Cy Young votes while going 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 2015 but last worked as a full-time starter in 2017, going 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts.That said, McHugh has been solid in his first two starts since returning to the starting rotation, allowing three runs on six hits with 13 strikeouts across 11 innings combined. The 31-year-old lost his debut at Tampa Bay but then limited Oakland to one run over six innings on 94 pitches to get the win. With Severino out, the Yankees will be really counting on Paxton. They need him to step up in situations like this and it sure bodes well that Paxton won all FOUR starts against Houston last season while pitching for the Seattle Mariners (2.05 ERA). Let's also add that he is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA in seven starts at Minute Maid Park. Paxton will work on extended rest, having last pitched on April 2. Yanks avoid the sweep. Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. The 53-27 Denver Nuggets lost out on their battle with the Golden St Warriors for the West's top-seed but with two games to go in the regular season, now find themselves engaged in a tight battle for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with the 53-28 Houston Rockets. The Nuggets dropped a 115-108 decision to the host Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday in game in which they rested Jokic, Murray and Millsap. "They're tired. It's been a long season," head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "Neither of those guys -- Jamal, Paul or Nikola has sat out one game this year due to rest or load management." Denver seems more focused on entering the postseason fresh, rather than securing the No. 2 see. They may just get their 'wish.' Utah was making a run at No. 4 seed Portland for homecourt advantage in the probable first-round series between the teams but fell two games back with two to play after suffering a dreadful 113-109 loss to the host Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. Utah head coach Quin Snyder was frustrated after Sunday's loss, as a depleted Lakers' squad outplayed and outworked his team. "Regardless of where you're seeded, you have to play well and play a certain way to win," Snyder told reporters afterward. "We've won some games, so sometimes that masks some things we weren't doing well. Everyone has been talking about the winning streak, but that doesn't mean anything."The 49-31 Jazz are unlikely to catch Portland but expect an outstanding effort in this, the team's home finale of the regular season. I don't understand Malone sitting Jokic, Murray and Millsap, so won't try to. Who will he play here? Here's what I know. With Sunday's loss at Portland, the Nuggets are 1-9 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. The Jazz are off an embarrassing loss at the Lakers on Sunday, a contest in which they had taken a 12-1 SU run into. What's more, Utah has won each of the Nuggets' last eight visits to Salt Lake City. Gotta love Utah at this price! Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-19 | Twins v. Mets -1.5 | 14-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The NY Mets have opened 6-3 and begin MLB's third week by hosting the 5-3 Minnesota Twins in a two-game interleague series. Both teams played Sunday, with the Mets losing the rubber match against Washington when their pitchers issued 12 walks in a 12-9 setback. Michael Conforto homered for the second straight contest on Sunday with a three-run HR in the ninth inning, giving him six multi-hit performances in his last eight games. Minnesota also lost its rubber match of a series 2-1 at Philly on Sunday, despite Max Kepler's first career leadoff HR. The 26-year-old Kepler homered in all three games of the series and is 9-for-26 with six RBI and four runs scored during his six-game hitting streak (.346). Tuesday's pitching matchup features Minnesota's Kyle Gibson (0-0, 9.64 ERA) and New York's Jacob deGrom (2-0, 0.00 ERA). Gibson led Minnesota in ERA (3.62) and quality starts (18) last season, but so far, 2019 has been a disaster. He retired nine straight batters at one point in his first outing of 2019 but fell victim to a five-run fifth inning and exited after allowing six runs (five earned) on eight hits in a no-decision at Kansas City on April 3 (Twins did win, 7-6). The Mets have elected to skip Jason Vargas' second turn through the rotation, guaranteeing that ace Jacob deGrom could pitch on normal rest. Shocking right? DeGrom has scattered just eight hits and issued two walks in 13 innings this season He had a career-high 14 strikeout performance in Wednesday, in a 6-4 victory at Miami. DeGrom has became the first pitcher since at least 1908 to throw back-to-back scoreless starts with 10-plus strikeouts and one or fewer walks. DeGrom has never faced the Twins but he does own a 2.91 ERA in 18 interleague starts. What's more, he's looking to extend his major league record of allowing no more than three runs in 31 straight starts (you read that right!). DeGrom will take on a Minnesota team which was just 29-52 on the road in 2018 (-$2,415 vs the moneyline). Opposite deGrom will be Gibson, who is off a poor first start and in two career meetings vs the Mets, is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA. Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-19 | Nationals +121 v. Phillies | Top | 10-6 | Win | 121 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. Rhys Hoskins hit a go-ahead HR in the sixth and adding an insurance run with another solo shot in the eighth, leading the Phillies to a 4-3 home win over the Nats last night.It marked Hoskins' fourth career two-HR game. Hoskins has done virtually all of his damage at home, batting .500 while hitting all five of his homers and accounting for 14 of his 15 RBI at Citizens Bank Park.The loss dropped the Nats to 4-5 and the Phillies moved to 7-2 with the win. The teams play the second contest of the three-game set tonight. Taking the mound for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 2.84 ERA) and for Philadelphia it will be Aaron Nola (1-0, 7.00 ERA). Strasburg rebounded from a shaky no-decision in his season debut vs the New York Mets on March 30 (4 ERS in 6 IP) with a dominant victory against them Thursday, allowing three singles and a walk while striking out nine over 6.2 innings of a 4-0 win. That latest outing was the three-time All-Star's 53rd straight start in which he allowed eight or fewer hits, good for the longest such streak in franchise history. Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola struggled to get untracked in the early going of his second straight Opening Day start, surrendering an RBI single in the second inning and issuing a career-high five walks before settling down to pick up the win in a 10-4 victory against Atlanta. However, he then suffered a rough no-decision Wednesday at Washington, allowing six runs on five hits (including three HRs) in only three innings. Considering the fact that Strasburg is 1-2 (2.24 ERA) vs Philly in 24 career starts (Nats are 19-5) and that Nola is 4-5 (4.07 ERA) in 16 career starts vs Washington (team is 5-11), this sets up as a solid play on the underdog Nationals. Good luck...Larry |
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04-09-19 | Indians -147 v. Tigers | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on teh Cle Indians at 1:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians opened but the season 2-3 but the team's starting staff was brilliant in a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays, permitting a just SIX runs while amassing 57 strikeouts. After an off-day on Monday, the Indians open a nine-game road trip against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday afternoon. The Tigers also opened 2-3 but have recovered to win FIVE in a row and at 7-3, sit atop the AL Central (Tigers' plus-$634 moneyline mark is second among all MLB teams, behind only the 10-2 Mariners, who are plus-$972). The Tigers are coming off a three-game home sweep of Kansas City. Taking the mound this afternoon will be Cleveland's two-time CY Young winner Corey Kluber (0-2, 5.23 ERA), going up against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 0.66 ERA). Kluber was a hard-luck loser in his season debut against Minnesota after permitting only two runs on four hits over seven innings but he lasted only 3.1 innings and was ripped for six runs (four earned) in an 8-3 home loss to the Chicago White Sox last time out. In stark contrast, Zimmermann has had two stellar outings, blanking Toronto on one hit over seven innings in his season debut, before allowing just one run on 6,2 innings at Yankee Stadium last time out. However, he has yet to earn a win (team is 2-0). Zeroing in on this contest, it's hard NOT to see that the Indians have been a real nemesis for Zimmermann. He lasted only a combined 3.2 innings in a pair of starts last season against them, dropping him to 0-5 with an 'ugly' 11.08 ERA in seven career starts against Cleveland (teams are 1-6). As for Kluber, he has lost each of his first two starts but he's piled up 56 wins over the past three seasons. He's 11-7 (3.37 ER) in 24 career starts vs Detroit (team is 14-10) but dominated the Tigers in 2018, winning all THREE starts against the Tigers. He allowed only three ERs on 12 hits over 23.1 innings (1.16 ERA), while striking out 26 and walking just two. Good enough for me. Kluber gets his first win of 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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04-08-19 | Padres v. Giants -125 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The San Francisco Giants finished last season 73-89, 18 1/2 games back of the division-winning Dodgers. 2019 seems head in the same direction, as the Giants have opened with three straight series losses, including a four-game set at San Diego to begin the year (lost THREE of the four contests). It's a chance here for some revenge, as the 3-7 Giants host the 6-4 Padres for three games beginning Monday night. The Padres took the first two contests of their three-game series in St Louis this past weekend but the Cards salvaged Sunday's series finale, 4-1 Monday's pitching matchup is a rematch of the teams' 2019 season opener, as Eric Lauer (1-1, 3.27 ERA) squares off against Madison Bumgarner (0-2, 1.38 ERA). Lauer tossed six scoreless innings in San Diego's 2-0 home win over the Giants back on March 28 but struggled five days later against the Arizona Diamondbacks, giving up four runs on nine hits over five innings of an 8-5 loss. Lauer, a former first-round selection, has a 2.86 ERA in four career starts against San Francisco but the team is just 1-3 (lone "W" came on Mar 28 of this season). Bumgarner allowed two runs in seven innings while striking out nine opposite Lauer on Opening Day and then gave up five runs in six innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday (all unearned!) to sustain another hard-luck loss, 6-5. Bumgarner is 11-10 with a 3.33 ERA in 32 career starts vs San Diego (Giants are 17-15). Taking Bumgarner in this "re-hook" seems like a no-brainer. He has a 1.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a 13-3 KW ratio in 13 innings this year. He owns a stellar 2.69 ERA in 121 career starts at home and faces a San Diego team which was a woeful 9-20 on the road in 2018 against left-handed starters, averaging only 3.0 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 118 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET. Texas Tech (31-6) meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!" Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times. I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may. Good luck...Larry |
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04-08-19 | Pirates v. Cubs -116 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Chicago Cubs opened the 2019 season on the road and it's fair to say it did not go as planned. As the Cubs ready for their 2019 home opener, Chicago returns to "The Friendly Confines" with a 2-7 record, the team's worst start to a season since losing 14 straight to begin the 1997 campaign. The Cubs finally got some quality work from their bullpen on Sunday (four scoreless innings) but still lost or the SEVENTH time in eight games, 4-2. Visiting Wrigley Field for the first of three games on Monday will be the Pittsburgh Pirates, who after a four-game home sweep of the pathetic Reds, are 5-3 to begin 2019. The Pirates won four games over the Reds by a total of just SEVEN runs, helping make up for back-to-back one-run losses in extra innings against the Cards earlier in the week. Taking the mound at Wrigley this afternoon will be Jameson Taillon (0-1, 3.46 ERA) and Jon Lester (1-0, 3.00 ERA). Taillon had a breakout season a year ago (14-10, 3.20 ERA), but is looking for his first win in 2019 in his third start. Taillon gave up four ERs on five hits in six innings in the season opener at Cincinnati back on March 28 but rebounded last Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings against the Cardinals. The Pirates have lost both of Taillon's 2019 starts. Taillon is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA in eight career starts against the Cubs, (team is 5-3), including a 2-1 record and 2.50 ERA in three starts at Wrigley Field. Jon Lester got the win in on Opening Day (12-4 at Texas) and a no-decision in Chicago's 6-4 loss last Wednesday at Atlanta. He gave up two runs in six innings in both games, getting 'burned' by Chicago's bullpen in Atlanta (left with a 4-2, before the Braves came back to win, 6-4 with a four-run eighth). Lester is 9-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 18 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 10-8). I HAVE to like the Cubs here in their season opener, with veteran lefty Lester on the hill. The Cubs were 24-8 (+$1,415) in all of Lester's 2018 starts and he enters this contest with a 32-18 record (3.34 ERA) in 71 career starts at Wrigley. The fact that the Pirates went just 6-16 on the road vs lefties in 2018, also adds to my confidence. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Nuggets clinched the Northwest Division title with a 119-110 victory over the Trail Blazers on Friday and Sunday night 53-26 Denver will try for its SEVENTH straight over 50-29 Portland when they visit the Trail Blazers. Each team's playoff position is still to be decided, as Denver is two games behind first-place Golden State in the Western Conference with three to play and 1 1/2 games clear of Houston for the No. 2 seed. As for Portland, the Blazers are clinging to a one-game lead over Utah for fourth seed and home court advantage in the first round. Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.2), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.4), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.2-4.9). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more, averaging between 5.7 and 8.6 PPG. Damian Lillard paces the team with 25.9 PGG (4.6 RPG & 6.9 APG) but he's averaged only 18.3 in three contests against Denver this season after scoring 14 on Friday. Yes, Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4) is out for the season but Enes Kanter (12.8 & 8.0 in 21 games with the Blazers) has now scored 20 or more points in a career-high four straight games after reaching that total seven times previously this season. Here's the key. Word is that McCollum (21.3) will play in this one for the first time since March 16 for Portland and that Denver is expected to rest Jokic, Murray and Millsap. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Magic v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. Orlando reached a low point on Jan 29, when a loss to OKC dropped the Magic 11 games under .500. However, the Magic have since gone 20-9 and Friday's 149-113 t home win over the Hawks gave them EIGHT wins in their last 10 and moved them into sixth place in the East (the Nets won last night, moving into a ie with Magic at 40-40 apiece!). The Magic are looking like the cream of the crop in a crowded race for the final three playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and are on the cusp of snapping a six-year postseason drought, needing just one win to clinch a playoff berth. However, Sunday's game in Boston will be a tough one. The 48-32 Celtics need just one win (or an Indiana loss) to nail down the East's No. 4 seed, after crushing the Pacers 117-97 at Indiana on Friday. Orlando is healthy coming down the stretch and the team's 42-18 first-quarter lead over the Hawks allowed the Magic to give most of their regulars an easy night, as the team secured its NINTH straight home win (Orlando's longest in-season streak in 10 years.). However, the Magic are just 15-24 SU on the road and face a Boston team which is 28-12 SU at home and is playing its final home game of the regular season. SIX players scored in double figures in Friday's rout of Indiana, including Gordon Hayward. He made all nine of his shots en route to 21 points and has averaged 1 6.4 points on 58.8 percent shooting over his last seven games. Boston has SIX players averaging in double digits, plus Smart (8.9) and Rozier (8.8) just miss. The Magic have won the first two meetings vs the Celtics this season (by a total of just five point) but DON'T expect the third time to be the 'charm.' Boston wins and clinches the No. 4 seed "with room to spare." Good luck.,..Larry |
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04-07-19 | Nets v. Pacers -3.5 | 108-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 5:05 ET. The Brooklyn Nets earned a dramatic win over the league-leading Bucks on Saturday in Milwaukee, ending the game on a 7-0 run to win, 133-128. The 40-40 the Nets moved into a tie for sixth place in the Eastern Conference with Orlando, a half-game up on eighth-place Detroit and 1 1/2 ahead of Miami (currently on the outside looking in at the East's playoff picture). Brooklyn concludes a critical back-to-back set Sunday when the Nets visit the 47-33 Indiana Pacers, who will likely be the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana needs to reassert itself after letting the Celtics shoot 52.2 percent from the floor in Friday's 117-97 loss, which allowed Boston to claim a 3-1 season series win and the first tiebreaker between the two teams. Brooklyn shares the same record as Orlando but the Nets won two of three meetings with the Magic to claim the head-to-head tiebreaker. Brooklyn is also a half-game ahead of the Detroit Pistons and beat them in two of three meetings to get the tiebreaker. As for teh Pacers, they now need to win their final two games and have Boston lose its last two to gain home court for the first round. Indiana can basically say "hello" to the 5th-seed. The Pacers won six straight from Feb 2-11 but are are 9-14 since, including going 3-8 in its last 11 games. Six of those losses are by single digits and Friday was the second-most points allowed in this slump. However, Indiana has won NINE straight over Brooklyn (8-1 ATS), 12 of 14 and SEVEN straight at home since Dec 18, 2015. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 3-10 ATS in the 2nd night of back-to-back games (played in Milwaukee last night). Pacers get this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Padres v. Cardinals -117 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. Manny Machado signing a club-record 10-year, $300 million contract was the biggest news coming out of San Diego before the opening of the 2019 season. However, the Padres' 6-3 start has been fueled by a pitching staff that boasts a team ERA of 3.22 (11th), with the starters at 2.77. The Padres beat the Cards 5-4 on Saturday when Machado and Austin Hedges belted two-run HRs in the eighth inning off Andrew Miller. The left-handed reliever's first season in St Louis isn't going well, as he's saddled with a 10.80 ERA in 3.1 innings.San Diego looks to complete a three-game road sweep of St Louis on Sunday. San Diego lefty Matt Strahm (0-1, 16.88 ERA) will square off against St Louis vet Adam Wainwright (0-0, 9.00 ERA) in Sunday's finale of the three-game set. Strahm started only eight of 86 career games over his first three seasons but earned a spot in the rotation out of spring training,. However, in his season debut last Monday, he allowed five ERs on eight hits with three walks in just 2.2 innings of a 10-3 loss to Arizona. on Monday. Retirement rumors surrounded Wainwright after the 37-year-old was limited to eight starts which totaled just 40.1 innings last season. Wainwright is a the three-time All-Star and has finished in the top three in Cy Young Award voting four times. However, Wainwright has added pitches to his repertoire, as he tries to transition from a power pitcher to a more finesse approach. Wainwright received a no-decision last Monday at Pittsburgh, after yielding four runs, four hits and four walks in four innings of the Cardinals' 6-5 victory. Strahm has almost no history vs St Louis (he's pitched four scoreless innings over two games against the Cards), while Wainwright is 6-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 14 games (11 starts) against the Padres. St Louis is 7-4 in Wainwright's 11 starts against the Padres, as he's posted a 2.08 ERA. I'll back the vet over the virtual unknown in this one, as the Cards avoid the dreaded home sweep! Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Nationals -138 v. Mets | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Was Nats at 1:10 ET. The Nats ruined the Mets home opener on Thursday with a 4-0 victory but New York earned a come-from-behind 6-5 win on Saturday, by hitting five HRs, one more than in the team's previous seven games. The 3-4 Nats will take on the 6-2 Mets Sunday afternoon at Citi Field in the rubber match of this three-game series between NL East rivals (note: the NL East figures to be a hotly-contested division all season long) Max Scherzer (0-2, 2.13 ERA) goes up against Zack Wheeler (0-0, 7.20 ERA) on Sunday. Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young Award winner but despite his 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .191 BAA and 21 Ks in 12.2 innings, all he has to show for his efforts are a pair of losses. Scherzer looks to break into the win column and avenge a season-opening loss to the New York Mets, a game in which the Mets scratched out only two hits off him. Scherzer, who is 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA in 17 career starts vs the Mets but his teams are just 9-8 in those contests. Wheeler has been hampered by injuries for much of his career but made 29 starts in 2018 and ranked second on the team in victories with 12. The former first-round pick was 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA over the final three months of the season but he posted a 4.80 ERA in five spring training starts. He struggled in his season debut vs Washington last Sunday, falling into an early hole by serving up a three-run HR during a five-inning stint (Mets lost 6-5). Wheeler is just 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA in 14 career starts vs Washington (Mets are 5-9) plus while he was 7-2 away from home last season, he was just 5-5 at Citi Field in 15 starts (team was 6-9). A series of off-days in late March and early April has allowed Washington Nationals manager Davey Martinez to arrange his rotation so that perennial Cy Young Award candidate Max Scherzer will make his THIRD start in the team's first eight games. In fact, if all goes according to plan, Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg will each have made three starts by the time fifth starter Jeremy Hellickson takes the mound Wednesday. Isn't about time that a pitcher with a 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .191 BAA and 21 Ks in 12.2 innings get a win? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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04-07-19 | Twins v. Phillies -123 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET. Philadelphia won FIVE of its first six games in 2019 (first 5-1 start since 2011), including a PERFECT 4-0 record at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia had outscored its opponents 49-26 through six games, while scoring five or more runs in each of its first six games for the first time since 1898! However, the Phillies finally saw their offense bottled up Saturday in their first home loss of the season, falling 6-2 to the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota went deep three times and has five HRs in the series, after managing only one in its first five games. Both teams sport 5-2 records as they meet in Sunday's rubber match of a three-game interleague series. Jose Berríos (1-0, 1.84 ERA) gets the ball for the Twins, opposed by the Phillies' Zach Eflin (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Berrios is Minnesota's ace and thanks to three off days, will be making his third start in just eight games. The 2018 All-Star struck out a Minnesota Opening Day record 10 batters over 7.2 innings in a 2-0 victory over the Indians (and Corey Kluber) but came away with a no decision in his second start on Tuesday, a 5-4 win in 10 innings at Kansas City (he allowed three runs on seven hits). Berrios will be making his first start against the NL Phillies. Eflin struck out nine and allowed just three hits and a walk over five scoreless innings in his season debut, an 8-2 win Tuesday at Washington. Like Berrrios, Eflin will be making his first career start against the AL Twins. While Berrios is considered Minnesota's ace, I believe he still has a long way to go to really earn that title. He really struggled away from Target Field last year, going 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in 15 road starts (Twins were 4-11). Is that an ace? Meanwhile, Eflin thrived at Citizens Bank Park last season by compiling an 8-3 record with a 3.33 ERA in 12 home starts (Phils were 8-4). Take Philly in this rubber match. Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* NCAA Tourney Game of the Year is on Michigan State at 8:49 ET. The Michigan State Spartans were the fifth overall seed in the tournamen t(one of four, No. 2 seeds) but wound up in the same bracket as Duke, the tourney's overall No. 1 seed. The Selection Committee's explanation was it was based on geographical considerations (anyone buying that?). However, the Spartans just "got to work" and last Sunday earned Tom Izzo's eighth trip to the Final Four with a one-point victory over Duke and freshman phenom Zion Williamson (not to mention Barrett, Reddish and Jones). The 32-6 Spartans will take on 30-6 Texas Tech (the East's No. 3 seed), which took out the West's No. 1 seed (Gonzaga), 75-69 last Saturday. Tech will be making the school's first-ever Final appearance, as will current head coach Chris Beard, who is a relative unknown among the four remaining coaches. Texas Tech isn't a "Johnny Come Lately," as the Red Raiders lost in the Elite Eight to national champion Villanova last season. That said, Tech had some reloading to do. Guard Matt Mooney (11.0) is a transfer from South Dakota and the 6-8 Tariq Owens (8.9 & 5.8) is a St John's transfer. Both are contributing at what Beard said was an "All-Big 12" level. Mooney starts in a three-guard lineup which includes Culver and Moretti. Culver leads the team in scoring (18.9), rebounding (6.4) and assist (3.7), while Moretti (11.6) is Tech's third double digit scorer. Owens is the team's best inside player and gets some help from the 6-8 Odiase (4.2 & 5.2). However, Tech wins with its defense, which comes in allowing 59.0 PPG (3rd) on 36.9% shooting (2nd). Michigan State is led by junior PG Cassius Winston, the team leader in scoring (18.9 points) and assists (7.6). A key to MSU's success has also been the outside shooting of the team's two seniors, guard Matt McQuaid (9.8 PPG with 70 three-pointers) and 6-7 forward Kenny Goins (8.1 & 9.0 plus 56 three-pointers). Goins gets plenty of help up front, as he;'s joined by the 6-18 Ward (13.2 & 7.3), the 6-8 Tillman (10.1 & 7.3) and 6-6 freshman Henry. Since Tillman moved into the starting lineup 12 games ago, he's averaged 13.8 points and 8.1 rebounds, scoring a career-high 19 points twice (including against Duke). Henry has emerged as an important cog for the Spartans in the postseason, as he's averaged 10.2 PPG in the NCAA Tournament Tech is a terrific defensive team (see above) but let's NOT forget Izzo teams always play excellent D, as well. This year's team allows 65.1 PPG (34th) on 37.9% (3rd-best in the nation!). MSU's frontcourt is VASTLY superior to Tech's. Winston has been excellent with the ball in the tournament, averaging 7.7 assists against 2.7 turnovers and he can be counted on to handle the trapping Texas Tech defense. Izzo says he is never worried what his junior captain will deliver. "Cassius is always Cassius," he said. Izzo's team advances to Monday night with a chance to earn that second NCAA title (no small deal!). Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Red Sox -133 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:10 ET. The reigning World Series champion Boston Red Sox have lost SIX of their last seven games to fall to 2-7 on the season. Boston lost 15-8 last night in Arizona (actually trailed by 13 runs at one point!) and still have two more games with the D'backs before the team's brutal 11-game West Coast road trip is completed. Boston’s starting pitchers are 0-7 with a 9.60 ERA, as the Red Sox are allowing 7.44 RPG with a team ERA of 7.18. The Diamondbacks pounded out 18 hits in their home opener on Friday, including five HRs. This after they had finished 3-4 on their season-opening road trip through California. David Price (0-1, 6.00 ERA) gets the nod for Boston and Luke Weaver (0-0, 8.31 ERA) for Arizona. The Red Sox were 22-8 in Price's 30 regular season starts in 2018, giving him MLB's eight-best moneyline mark (+$1,294). However, Price contributed to a rough first week of the season for the team’s starting pitchers by permitting four runs on five hits (including three HRs) over six innings in a 7-0 loss at Oakland. Some good news comes Boston's way in that while Price has just two career starts vs Arizona, he is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA. Luke Weaver played the first three years of his career with St Louis before being dealt to Arizona in the off-season trade for Paul Goldschmidt. He did not last through five innings in his first game with Arizona on Sunday, allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits along with two walks across 4.1 innings while throwing 97 pitches. Weaver was 7-2 in 2017 but dropped to 7-11 with the Cardinals last year, posting a 4.95 ERA in 30 appearances (25 starts). His first start of 2019 was hardly encouraging. Price was an ALCS and World Series hero for the Red Sox last October (picked up three wins), after a career filled with postseason horrors. Boston's too good of a team to keep playing this way. The Red Sox were 87-38, while averaging 5.5 RPG vs right-handed starters last season and Weaver is a righty they should handle. Meanwhile, Arizona was losing moneyline team at home in 2018, going 40-41 (-$1.359). Let me add that Arizona was just 28-30 vs lefties last season, averaging only 4.0 RPG. Off an 18-hit, 15-run effort last night, expect the Arizona bats to be quieted by Price. Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Rangers v. Angels -138 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Angels at 4:05 ET. The 2-6 LA Angels ended a six-game slide with a 3-1 victory last night at home vs the Texas Rangers. Some guy named Mike Trout hit two solo HRs, for the 15th multi-homer performance of his career. Trout is 4-for-7 with three HRs in the first two contests of the four-game series and is hoping Friday's win will be the start of a hot stretch for the Angels. "We needed a 'W,'" Trout said in a postgame television interview. "I got some pitches I could hit, and I hit them. Hopefully, we get some momentum heading into (Saturday)." The Rangers had scored 21 runs during a three-game winning streak, before being limited to six hits in Friday's3-1 loss. Texas enters Saturday's play at 5-3, coming off an 'ugly' 2018 season in which it finished 67-95, 36 games behind the division winning Astros. A pair of lefties square off in today's contest, Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.00 ERA) of Texas and Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 3.86 ERA) of LA. Smyly missed two full seasons -- 2017-18 -- while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and his first start of the season last Monday was his first in the majors since Sep 26, 2016. He allowed just one run and four hits against Houston but was pulled after three innings and 73 pitches. Rangers manager Chris Woodward, said that Smyly had a "stressful" first two innings, which required 58 pitches. Skaggs know all about injuries, as well. He suffered a torn ligament in his pitching elbow in August of 2014, had Tommy John surgery, and didn't return to a major league mound until July of 2016. A groin injury during the second half of last year limited him to just four starts in the final two months of the season. Still, his 24 starts in 2018 were a career high by six, even though he first broke into the big leagues in 2012. Skaggs was limited to just three Cactus League starts, pitching 9.2 inning, as he was diagnosed with "forearm fatigue." He seemed to hit a wall in his first start of the season last Sunday against Oakland. Yes, he retired the first eight batters of the game,but needed 33 pitches to get out of the third inning. Finally, with two outs in the fifth, Angels manager Brad Ausmus yanked Skaggs from the game after 86 pitches. So what' the 'diagnosis' in this one? Smyly is 0-3 in four career starts vs the Angels (5.30 ERA), with his teams going 1-3. As for Skaggs, the hope is that he can manage his pitch count and maintain his stamina. That's my bet and note that in two starts vs Texas last season, he was 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA, striking out 13 in 11 innings. LA's bats should get to Smyly, making Skaggs' job easier (note: LA's bullpen owns a 1.95 ERA, second-best in all of MLB). Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Padres v. Cardinals -112 | 6-4 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The San Diego Padres opened the season by going 4-3 at home and began the team's longest road trip of the season (10-game trip) by spoiling the home opener for the St Louis Cardinals, with a 5-3 Friday afternoon win. The victory gives San Diego its best eight-game start (5-3) in 10 years. The Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt homered on Friday for the fifth time in his last six games but it wasn't enough, as their two-game winning streak came to an end, as they dropped their home opener for the second year in a row. (StL sits 3-4) The pitching matchup for Saturday features Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and Michael Wacha (0-0, 1.50 ERA). The much-heralded Paddack put forth a very sharp debut in the majors Sunday against San Francisco, limiting the Giants to one run and two hits while striking out seven in five innings, which came on the heels of a dominant spring. Wacha is coming off an injury-interrupted 2018 season but it was one in which he still manged an 8-2 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Wacha opened the season with six solid innings in a no-decision at Milwaukee. He struck out seven and allowed one run in a game the Cards lost 5-4. San Diego pitchers have given up just six runs on 24 hits and nine walks with 45 strikeouts in 45 innings (1.20 ERA and a 0.733 WHIP) in the team's five wins but have surrendered 21 runs on 36 hits and 10 walks in 27 innings for a 7.00 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP in the team's three losses. Paddock is expected to be a star but it's WAY too early to be SURE. Meanwhile, Wacha is 3-0 with 2.32 ERA in five career starts vs the Padres, as well as a 1.13 WHIP and 216 opponents' batting average. He also owns a career record of 29-13 in 72 appearances (66 starts) with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in the Cardinals' home park. Want more? Wacha has just ONE loss in his last 15 starts going back to last season (Cards are 11-4 in those starts)! Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Reds v. Pirates -127 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Pit Pirates at 1:35 ET. The Pirates beat the Reds 2-0 last night, as Cincinnati has now been shut out three straight times (four times in seven games this season). The 1-6 Reds hope to snap a six-game losing streak as they remain in Pittsburgh for a Saturday afternoon contest with the 3-3 Pirates. Cincy's offensive issues are VERY real, as the Reds have recorded just 13 hits during their stretch of three straight shut out losses, getting limited to three in Friday's contest. The Reds are averaging 1.57 RPG on the season, while batting .157 as a team with a .497 OPS (all three rank 30th of 30 MLB teams). The Pirates aren't tearing the cover off the ball, averaging just 3.50 RPG (19th), but Pittsburgh pitching ranks 3rd with a 2.25 ERA and 5th with a 1.00 WHIP. Tanner Roark (0-0, 6.23 ERA) starts for the Reds andT revor Williams (1-0, 0.00 ERA) for the Pirates. Roark's first start of the season (and first with Cincinnati after being acquired from Washington in December) didn't go nearly as well as he hoped. Roark gave up three runs, three hits and three walks in the first inning (threw 37 pitches!) of a 4-3 loss to Milwaukee. He exited after 4.1 innings of game that wasn't decided until the ninth. Roark is 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts / 3-1 with a 4.21 ERA) against the Pirates. Williams blanked the Reds 5-0 on three hits over six innings while winning his first start of 2019 last Sunday. He struck out six and walked one in the outing, throwing 59 of his 80 pitches for strikes. Williams is 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in six starts against Cincinnati (Pirates are 5-1). The Reds have scored a major league-low 11 runs in their first seven games and face the up-and-coming Williams, who was 7-3 with a 1.38 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star break. He has since expanded his repertoire to include more curveballs, but his fastball is still his go-to pitch. If his first start of the season is any indication (see above), Williams just may be ready to top that second-half performance. Pittsburgh pitchers have shut out the Reds for 28 consecutive innings. Should anything really change, here? Good luck...Larry |
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04-06-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 7 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Was/NYM Over at 1:10 ET. It's likely the NL East could be a four-team race for the better part of the 2019 season. The Braves won the division last year and have opened 4-3 but the new-look Phillies are 5-1 and the Mets check in at 5-2. The Mets clearly believe they are the team to beat and look to bounce-back on Saturday against the 3-3 Nats, who spoiled the Mets' home opener Thursday. Stephen Strasburg struck out nine over 6.2 scoreless innings and combined with four relievers on a four-hitter as Washington earned a 4-0 victory. Both teams took Friday off and they cap the series with afternoon games Saturday and Sunday, In a battle of lefties, Patrick Corbin (0-0, 3.00 ERA) takes on Steven Matz (0-0, 1.69 ERA). Corbin signed a six-year, $140 million contract with Washington in December, earning his big deal after a spectacular 2018 in which he struck out 246 batters in 200 innings while holding opponents to a .218 average. Corbin faced the Mets at home last Sunday in his Nationals debut and surrendered two runs and seven hits over six innings but did not factor in the decision, as the Nats avoided a home sweep with a 6-5 win. Corbin does not have a good history vs the Mets , going 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts (teams are 4-5). Matz surrendered a HR in the first inning at Miami on Monday but settled down and was charged with three runs (just one earned) on six hits in 5.1 innings (Mets would win, 7-3). Matz has made 10 career starts vs the Nats, going 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA. Note that the opening total in this contest was "7" and that the Nats are averaging 4.83 RPG and the Mets, 5.29 RPG. Add in that Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA in five career starts in Citi Field against New York and that Washington's bullpen owns a 9.64 ERA on the season (it's a MLB-high!). What's more, while Matz owns a 3.93 ERA vs Washington over 10 career starts, SIX of those starts came in 2018 when he failed to earn a win, going 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA. Let's go OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-19 | Lakers v. Clippers -10 | 122-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. LBJ's first (last?) season in LA is coming to an end. LBJ (27.4-8.5-8.3) last played in a 129-115 home win over New Orleans but has been shut down for the rest of the season. LA beat Memphis 130-106 without him (Mar 31) but has opened April losing 119-103 at OKC and last night, 108-92 at home to the Warriors. The Lakers will play again tonight at Staples Center but as the road team in a contest with the Clippers. While the 35-44 Lakers will watch the postseason on TV, the 47-232 Clippers are in the playoffs and currently own the No. 6 seed (1 /2 games back of the 5th-seeded Jazz and 1 1/2 games up on the 7th-seeded Thunder). The Clippers enter this game off a 135-103 home beating at the hands of the Rockets. For LA, it's not just LBJ who is missing from the lineup. I won't bother to list all the missing piece but rather note that Alex Caruso (7.6) was rewarded with his first start of the season Thursday. The second-year guard shot just 4 of 14 (nine points), after becoming the first player in team history with at least 23 points, six assists and four steals off the bench since steals became an official statistic in 1973-74 on March 29 vs Charlotte. Rookie forward Johnathan Williams (5.7 & 3.6) recorded 17 points and a season-high 13 rebounds versus Golden State in 27 minutes, which marked his second-most time of the season. Who are thees guys? Here's who the Clippers are. They are NOT a team which packed it in after trading Harris and his 20.9 PPG and 7.9 RPG (like so many thought). According to Elias Sports Bureau, Lou Williams (20.2 points) and Montrezl Harrell (16.8) are the highest-scoring reserve duo in NBA history. The there is Landry Shamet, who was acquired from Philadelphia in February, who leads rookies in three-point field goal percentage at 41.9 percent (he has averaged 11.0 in 22 games with the Clippers). Let's not forget Danilo Gallinari, who is averaging 19.8 & 6.2 and has a career-high seven double-doubles this season. This year's effort comes after he suffered through a tough first season with the team, when he shot just 39.8 percent from the floor and saw action in only 21 games due to multiple injuries. The Clippers entered Wednesday's game feeling good after winning EIGHT of their previous nine, as well as 13 of their previous 15,. However, Houston took that all away by entering the 4th quarter with a 102-73 advantage heading into the final quarter. The Clippers finish the regular season at Golden State on Sunday and against the Jazz on Wednesday in a contest that could decide fourth place in the Wet. However, that game would almost assuredly mean little if they can't take advantage of the lone 'soft spot' left on their schedule. That being, tonight's game with the Lakers. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-19 | Celtics v. Pacers +100 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 8:05 ET. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are almost guaranteed to be headed toward a first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, each enter thsiscontest at 47-32 and the team which ends the regular season with the better record (a tie will go to Boston) will earn the home floor edge. Both teams were victorious in their respective games Wednesday night, as the Celtics made it FOUR wins in their past five with a 112-102 win at Miami. The Pacers earned an impressive 108-89 win in Detroit, snapping an 'ugly' 10-game road losing streak. Boston owns the tiebreaker by virtue of its 2-1 record against the Pacers this season (note: home team has won all three meetings thus far). PG Kyrie Irving (23.9-5.0-7.0) scored 23 points in the win over the Heat and Gordon Hayward continued his solid stretch run with 25 points. Hayward has experienced ups and downs this year, after missing virtually all of last season with a foot injury. He has scored at least 11 points in six straight games to raise his season average to 11.3. Boston's strength is its depth but that will be tested here, as while Horford (13.6-6.8-4.2) is listed as probable, Brown (13.0 & 4.3) is questionable and Morris (14.0 & 6.1) is expected to miss. The Pacers held the Pistons to 38.8 percent shooting in Wednesday's win, as Thaddeus Young (12.6 & 6.5) led five players in double figures with 21 points. Guard Cory Joseph tied a season high with 12 assists. The Pacers have reinvented themselves since All-Star Victor Oladipo (18.8) was lost for the season in January with a ruptured quad tendon,. The back-to-back wins over Detroit were much-need, as they followed a stretch in which Indiana had lost SEVEN of eight. Like Boston, Indiana has excellent depth but guards Darren Collison (groin) and Wesley Matthews (hamstring) are listed as day-to-day. Indiana's recent problems came mostly on the road (just ONE of the losses in that 1-7 stretch came at home) and the Pacers KNOW how important this game is, with just THREE games remaining for both Boston and Indiana. The Pacers are 29-10 at home, while the Celtics are 19-20 on the road. The SU winner equals the ATS winner with pointspread, so the play is on the Pacers. Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-19 | Reds v. Pirates -114 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. Cincinnati opened the season with a 5-3 home win against Pittsburgh but has scored a total of just SIX total runs in losing FIVE straight games. The Reds are the only team averaging less than two per game (1.83 per ranks last), batting .164 as a team with a .519 OPS (28th). The 2-3 Pirates are tearing the cover off the ball (Pittsburgh is averaging 3.80 RPG which ranks 19th) but Pittsburgh owns a 2.68 team ERA (5th-best). Leading the way is a starting staff that leads all National League rotations with a 1.55 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, despite Jameson Taillon allowing four ERs on six innings on Opening Day. Jordan Lyles was the latest Pittsburgh starter to take advantage of the Reds' offensive woes in Thursday's 2-0 victory, allowing three hits and three walks over five scoreless innings in his team debut. Sonny Gray (0-1, 6.75 ERA) gets the ball for Cincy and Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.00 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Gray was seen as a rising star at Oakland but was traded to the NYY in 2017 and in his time with New York, flopped. He had a dominant showing during spring training in which he posted a 0.90 ERA while limiting opponents to a .143 batting average but his team debut was a forgettable one, as he failed to record a strikeout while allowing three runs(two earned) on five hits and four walks over just 2.2 innings in Sunday's 5-0 home loss to Pittsburgh. Musgrove is in his fourth season in the majors. His turn in the rotation was skipped when the Pirates-Reds game on March 30 was rained out but he volunteered to pitch in relief and threw two shutout innings after Trevor Williams went the first six on Sunday in the Pirates' 5-0 win at Cincinnati. The relief outing was his first in that role since Game 6 of the 2017 World Series while with the Houston Astros. He's faced the Reds just twice in his career (both last year), going 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA. Musgrove should not have much trouble with Cincy's lineup ,as the Reds have lost FIVE consecutive games (three of them shutouts) and own a majors-worst .164 team BA. In fact, it took until Thursday's loss for two of their outfielders, Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler, to get their first hits, after going 0-for-15 and 0-for-18, respectively. Gray came out of Vanderbilt with HUGE expectations but he looks like nothing more than a journeyman. He is 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) versus the Pirates and just why should he be any different (better) here? Good luck...Larry |
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04-05-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +119 | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Col Rockies at 4:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a 5-2 start and sit atop the NL West, despite the absence of ace land three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are averaging 7.86 RPG (1st), scoring 49 runs in their five victories and they lead all of MLB with 18 HRs. LA has played its first seven at home but will play the next seven on the road, beginning with Friday afternoon's game at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies. 3-4 Colorado is set to plays its home opener, after snapping a four-game slide in the finale of a seven-game road trip with a 1-0 victory in 11 innings at Tampa Bay. Chris Iannetta 11th-inning HR accounted for only Colorado's second run in four games, snapping a 22-inning scoreless streak. Kenta Maeda (1-0, 4.05 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and Tyler Anderson (0-1, 9.00 ERA) for the Rockies. The Dodgers scored 18 runs in Maeda's first start of 2019, as he worked 6.2 innings while allowing three runs on five hits, with all the runs coming via solo HRs. Maeda made eight appearances (three starts) against Colorado last season and posted a 1-1 record with a 1.96 ERA. Anderson made a career-high 32 starts and finished 7-9 in 2018. He struggled in his 2019 debut at Miami, lasting just five innings and permitting five ERs on nine hits. He saw plenty of the Dodgers last season, making five starts and while he was just 1-1 (team was 1-4), he had a decent 3.58 ERA and held LA bats to a collective .228 batting average. The Rockies came within a game of ending the NL West reign of the Los Angeles Dodgers last season (Dodgers have captured SIX straight NL West titles), so expectations are high for this year. The Rockies haven't been quite as dominant at home in recent years but this game sets up perfectly. It's Colorado's 2019 home-opener and the high-flying Dodgers play away from home for teh first time. Good luck...Larry |
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04-04-19 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | 11-4 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Angels at 10:07 ET. The Los Angeles Angels may have MLB's best player in Mike Trout (he recently signed a record-setting 12-year, $426.5 million contract) but they are off to their worst start since 1961. However, new manager Brad Ausmus isn’t pushing the panic button, even though the Angels will bring a 1-5 record into Thursday’s home opener against the Texas Rangers. Shohei Ohtani (elbow) and Justin Upton (turf toe) are on the injured list and the Angels' offense has struggled, scoring just 13 runs in six games (SIX of those runs came in the team's lone win). Texas, coming off a 67-95 season in which it finished 36 games back of NL West-winning Houston, has opened 4-2 after winning its first two series of the year. Edinson Volquez (0-0, 9.00 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Matt Harvey (0-0, 3.00 ERA) for LA. Volquez made his first start since July 5, 2017 (missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery) on Saturday. He allowed four runs, six hits and four walks in four innings against the Chicago Cubs. He began his career with the Rangers 14 years ago and owns a 1-4 record and 10.71 ERA in six career games (four starts / teams are 1-3) vs the Angels. Harvey signed a one-year, $11 million contract in December, after splitting last season between the New York Mets and Cincinnati. He was able to salvage a decent season by going 7-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 24 starts with the Reds, after he'd had a disastrous first eight appearances (four starts) with the Mets, going 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA. Harvey carried a no-hitter into the fifth inning of his Angels debut against Oakland on Friday and settled for a no-decision after allowing two runs over six innings. Harvey is making his first career start against Texas and first appearance at Angel Stadium. I've already noted LA's offensive woes and will add that the Angels are hitting .178 as a team (27th) with a .240 on-base percentage and an OPS of .481 (29th). However, getting to Volquez is hardly a stretch. He looked shaky Saturday in his first start since July of 2017 and his 10.71 ERA in six games (four starts) against the Angels HAS to give the LA bats some confidence. Making their 2019 home opener, the Angels should draw on the fact that they were 13-6 against the Rangers last season, including 7-2 at Angel Stadium. LA gets the win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-04-19 | Nationals +114 v. Mets | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nats at 1:10 ET. New York Mets continued their hot start with a three-game sweep in Miami, after a 6-4 Wednesday win over the Marlins. The Mets are 5-1 for the second consecutive year but for only the fifth time in history. The Mets play their first home game of the 2019 season on Thursday afternoon, as they welcome the Washington Nationals to Citi Field. Washington opened the season by losing two of three to the Mets at Nationals Park and then were able to salvage a split of its two-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nats lost 8-2 on Tuesday but earned a 9-8 walk-off win Wednesday, after the bullpen once again failed miserably (bullpen ERA of 11.02 is a MLB-worst!).. Stephen Strasburg (0-0, 6.00 ERA) and Noah Syndergaard (0-0, 6.00 ERA) take the mound in a rematch of last Saturday's game in Washington. Neither pitchers was involved in the decision during the Mets' 11-8 victory. Starsburg did strike out eight but also allowed four runs and seven hits over six innings. He is 8-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 career starts against the Mets, with the Nats going 12-6. Syndergaard also allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings in an up-and-down season debut in which he struck out seven. Syndergaard is 3-5 with a 3.65 ERA in 13 meetings against the Nationals (Mets are 5-8). Washington relievers Tony Sipp, Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough combined to blow a 6-4 advantage in the seventh, when the Phillies scored four runs. The trio has combined for a 24.75 ERA in five innings this season. If the Washington bullpen continues to falter, the Nats are in big trouble but it's hard to draw too many conclusions after one week. That said, the Mets have scored 17 runs in the eighth inning or later (most in the majors), while the Nationals have allowed 14 runs in the eighth inning and three in the ninth.Why I like the Nats is the quick "re-hook" between Strasburg and Syndergaard. Not only are the Nats 13-7 the last three season sat Citi Field but Strasburg is 7-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 10 outings at Citi Field, where he hasn’t lost since 2013. What's more, the Nats are 20-5 the last three seasons in Strasburg's road starts. Underdog barks loudly in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-19 | Rockets -1 v. Clippers | 135-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on the Hou Rockets at 10:35 ET. Many thought the Clippers were "throwing in the towel" when they moved key leading scorer Harris (20.9 & 7.9) at the trade deadline However, as the 47-31 LA Clippers welcome the Rockets to Staples Center, they have won 11 of their last 13 games. The 50-28 Rockets also come in on a roll, as they've won 17 of their last 20 contests. Playoff seeding is front-and-center in this meeting, as the the Rockets are one-half game ahead of Portland for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, while the Clippers are one-half game behind the fifth-seed Jazz. Houston won 130-105 last night in Sacramento, as Harden (36.4-6.5-7.6) scored 36 points, while adding 10 assists. Eric Gordon () supplied a 20-point effort and some real good news was that Kenneth Faried returned from a three-game absence due to a knee issue to produce 12 points and 11 rebounds in 21 minutes. PG Paul (15.5 & 8.2 APG) joins Harden and Gordon to give Houston as good a guard trio as there is in the NBA but a healthy Faried is big news. He's averaging 13.5 & 8.8 in his 22 games and along with center Clint Capela (averaging career highs of 16.5 PPG and 12.6 RPG), give Houston a real frontcourt presence. Gallinari (19.8 & 6.2) recorded 27 points and a season-best 15 rebounds in Sunday's 113-96 home victory over Memphis. The 30-year-old Gallinari has registered a career-high seven double-doubles this season, after suffering through a tough first season with the club, when he shot just 39.8 percent from the floor and saw action in only 21 games due to multiple injuries. Sixth-man Lou Williams scored 17 points against the Grizzlies and has recorded 15 or more in 20 of his last 21 contests, as he leads the team in scoring (20.3) and assist (5.3 APG) The Clippers have beaten the Rockets in both previous meetings but both games were played in October, as Houston opened the season 1-5. Chris Paul will be motivated vs his ex-teammates plus Houston still has an outside shot at catching the Nuggets for the No. 2 seed in the West. Revenge (double, at that) works! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-19 | Cubs -101 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Cubs at 7:20 ET. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made a tremendous impact for the Atlanta Braves since making his major league debut last April, and he will take the field for Wednesday’s home contest against the Chicago Cubs with his future secured. The Braves and the National League Rookie of the Year reportedly agreed to an eight-year, $100-million contract extension on Tuesday's off day after the 21-year-old launched his first homer of the season in Atlanta’s 8-0 home-opening victory. The Braves were outscored 23-11 in a season-opening sweep at Philadelphia but behind HRs from Ronald Acuna and Ender Inciarte, three hits from 2b Ozzie Albies and five scoreless, walk-free innings from their bullpen in Monday's 8-0 victory over the Cubs. After a day off, the three-game series continues tonight. The Cubs won their season opener 12-4 at Texas on March 28 but after Monday's loss, enter Wednesday on a three-game slide in which their pitching staff has allowed 27 runs on 34 hits across 24.1 innings during thee skid. Jon Lester (1-0, 3.00 ERA) starts for Chicago and Julio Teheran (0-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for Atlanta. Lester gave the Cubs a solid effort on Opening Day, holding Texas to two runs on four hits with three strikeouts in six innings. Lester shared the National League lead with 18 wins a season ago, as the Cubs went in 24-8 in all of starts, earning a profit of $1,415 (6th-best among all starters). He did not face Atlanta in 2018 but is 6-2 with a 2.47 ERA in nine career starts against the Braves. Teheran made his sixth consecutive Opening Day start for the Braves last Thursday in Philadelphia and took the loss (allowed three runs on four hits with two walks and seven strikeouts across five innings). Teheran is 3-1 with a 3.44 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the Cubs, winning his only start against Chicago last season. Expect Lester to give Chicago a much-needed good start and note that the Braves were an 'ugly' 2-11 at home in night games against lefties in 2018. As for the Cubs, expect their bats to 'wake up,' as well. The Cubs were 27-18 while averaging 5.0 RPG in road night games against righties in 2018. What's more, the Cubs lead the NL and rank second in the majors in road victories since the start of the 2015 campaign (183). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-19 | Pacers v. Pistons -1.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The 46-32 Indiana Pacers are battling for the No. 4 seed in the first round of the playoffs with the Boston Celtics, who are also 46-32 but own the tiebreaker. The Pacers snapped a three-game slide in beating the Pistons 111-102 at home on Monday. The 39-38 Pistons, who are fighting for one of the final three spots in the East playoff bracket (currently own the No. 6 seed but are just a half-game up on the Nets, one game up on the Heat and 1 1/2 games clear of the Heat, who currently sit outside the playoff 'cut line'). Detroit now gets a chance for some "quick revenge," as the Pacers visit Little Caesars Arena tonight. Indiana did not have a player reach 20 points on Monday but shot 54.5 percent from the floor and placed seven scorers in double figures, including reserve guard Aaron Holiday (5.6), who scored 10 points and handed out five assists in 25 minutes. Holiday was getting extra playing time in the absence of starting PG Darren Collison (11.4 & 6.1 APG), who remains day-to-day with a groin injury. The Pacers lost four straight games after leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8) suffered a ruptured quadriceps tendon in his right knee in late January but they got over the initial shock of losing him by posting a 9-3 record in February. However, they're increasingly feeling his absence, particularly during crunch time. The playoff-bound Pacers finished March 4-10, including a 1-7 mark over the last eight games.The April 1 win was big but the Pacers need to avoid looking ahead to a home date with Boston on Friday. Blake Griffin (24.7-7.7-5.5) missed his second consecutive game on Monday (knee) and his presence was missed in the paint on the defensive end (he's listed as questionable here). Center Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.3) tried to make up for the loss of Griffin and collected 18 points, 17 rebounds, five assists and four steals in the loss. PG Jackson (15.5 & 4.2 APG) had 22 points and Wayne Ellington came up big with 26 points. Ellington has given Detroit an outside shooting threat, as he has averaged 11.8 in 23 games since joining Detroit. I'd LOVE to see Griffin play here but either way, I'll take the Pistons. Detroit has won 11 straight at home (11-0 ATS), it's best run since it captured 16 straight during the 2005-06 season.Meanwhile, Indian limps in on a 10-game road losing streak and hardly can cover without winning SU with this pointspread. Detoit's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-19 | Phillies v. Nationals +130 | 8-9 | Win | 130 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nationals at 1:05 ET. Bryce Harper hit a two-run HR to highlight his three-hit performance as the Philadelphia Phillies easily bested his former team (Washington Nats) 8-2 last night. Philly is 4-0 for the first time since 1915 and looks to sweep the Nats this afternoon in the finale of this brief two-game series. Harper's addition (as well as fellow off-season acquisitions Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura among others), has ignited a Phillies' offense that has erupted for 31 runs this season (7.75 per). Washington fell to 1-3 with the loss and more bad news came the Nats way as SS Trea Turner suffered a non-displaced broken right index finger when he was hit attempting to bunt in the first inning. What's more, 1B Matt Adams (back) is day-to-day after going over the railing attempting to make a catch in the first inning. Starter Max Scherzer (0-2) was solid for five innings on Tuesday, but the Phillies padded their lead against Washington's struggling bullpen (12.71 bullpen ERA is a MLB-worst). Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.50 ERA) starts for the Phillies and Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 2.83 ERA in 2018) makes his Washington debut for the Nats. Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11, +$983). Nola struggled to get untracked in the early going of his second straight Opening Day start, surrendering an RBI single in the second inning and issuing a career-high five walks before settling down to pick up the win in a 10-4 victory against Atlanta last Thursday. Nola was terrific against Washington last season, striking out 35 batters in five starts (33.2 innings) en route to posting a 3-1 mark while limiting the club to a .200 batting average. Sanchez struck out 135 batters in 136.2 innings in 2018 with a 2.83 ERA, one year removed from posting a 3-7 record with a gaudy 6.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with Detroit. He parlayed that strong comeback 2018 season with the Braves into a two-year, $19 million contract with Washington in 2019. Yes, the Phillies have opened well but I will urge caution here. The Phillies were just 26-41 on the road inn 2018 vs right-handed starters (-$1,550), including 9-17 in day games, averaging only 3.4 RPG. As for Nola's excellent numbers vs Washington in 2018, let me add that he's just 4-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 15 career starts vs the Nats (Phils are only 5-10 in those games). Can Sanchez repeat his 2018 effort? Time will tell. For today, I'm backing the Nats. Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Warriors won their third title in four years last season, while the Nuggets missed the Western Conference playoffs by one game. However, as those two teams meet tonight in Oakland, the Nuggets are 51-25 and the Warriors sit 52-24. It's a contest that could decide the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Denver had a chance to go into tonight's contest tied with Golden State but watched its offense fall apart in the second half, as it suffered a 95-90 home loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday. That same night, the Warriors were showing off just how good they can be in a 137-90 rout of the Charlotte Hornets. Denver is arguably the NBA's deepest team. Center Jokic leads in scoring (20.3), rebounding (10.9) and assists (7.4), while PG Murray has been steady as it goes (18.2-4.1-4.8). Behind those two, Denver has FIVE players averaging in double digits plus four more, averaging between 5.6 and 8.5 PPG. However, Denver's offense has suddenly has disappeared,. as Denver is averaging 94.6 points in its last five games and has scored 90 or fewer in three of those contests (not surprisingly, all losses). "I don’t know," Nuggets power forward Paul Millsap told reporters when asked about the offensive funk. "If we don't figure it out going on this roadie, it's going to be tough to win. It's something we've got to look at, for sure, and try to nip it in the bud." Sunday's Golden St victory came just two nights after a contentious overtime loss at Minnesota that left the team frustrated with the officiating. "Nights like tonight show our full potential," Warriors superstar Stephen Curry told reporters after Sunday's win. "It's obviously starting to get real with the countdown being what it is. It's a good feeling right now, so we have to keep it going." Curry (27.9-5.4-5.3), KD (26.6-6.6-5.8) and Thompson (22.1) lead an offense scoring 117.7 PPG (2nd) on 48.9% (1st), including 38.3% (3rd). Golden St has been a money-burner since last season but this game should have a "playoff atmosphere." The Warriors' remaining schedule is not difficult, with home games against Cleveland and the Los Angeles Clippers plus road contests against three teams already assured of being lottery-bound, the Lakers, New Orleans and Memphis. A win here would be HUGE. The Nuggets broke through last Friday with a 115-105 win at OKC. However, that victory ended a stretch in which the Nuggets had gone 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. Lay the points with Golden St. Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-19 | Angels v. Mariners -107 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
Jay Bruce 's mammoth HR (he's homered in four consecutive games) was the biggest blow of a 10-hit attack as Seattle beat the LA Angels its third straight game6-3 on Monday. The victory gives the Mariners an American League-best 6-1 record. As for the Angels.they may have MLB's bedst player in Mike Trout, who was recently signed to a record-setting 12-year, $426.5 million contract, but they are also the not so proud owners of a 1-4 record. The Angels have scored just six runs during a three-losing streak and have tallied just 12 overall (six runs came in the team's lone win!) during a 1-4 start. As for Trout, has yet to homer and is batting .286 with three RBI. Seattle hosts the Angels tonight in the finale of a two-game series, as Trevor Cahill (0-1, 6.00 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Marco Gonzales (2-0, 4.76 ERA) for teh Mariners. Cahill went 7-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 2018, as he returned to Oakland for a second stint last season but made only 20 starts as he spent the first month in the minors and also made a visit to the disabled list. That said, Cahill's seven wins were his most since going 8-10 for Arizona in 2013. He made the second Opening Day start of his career on March 28, giving up four runs in six innings. He allowed two HRs, one triple and one double. He didn't allow multiple HRs in any of his 20 starts in 2018. Cahill is 5-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 14 career starts against Seattle (teams are 7-7). Gonzales has allowed three ERs in each of his first two starts. He's allowed 16 hits over 11.1 innings during the outings but managed to defeat both Oakland and Boston. Gonzales went 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts versus the Angels last season and has made eight career starts vs LA (team is 5-3 and he owns a 3.32 ERA) Seattle went 15-6 in Gonzales' first 21 starts last season but he then struggled down the stretch, as the Mariners went 1-8 over his final eight starts. However, he's been solid so far and faces an LAA team which lost three of four against the Oakland A's to start the season, scoring just one run in the first seven innings in all four games combined. LA enters this contest batting .188 as a team, averaging 2.4 RPG (both rank 27th) and remember, SIX of LA's runs came in its lone win. Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-19 | Twins v. Royals +128 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the KC Royals at 8:15 ET. Kansas City pounded out 16 runs in taking two of three from the Chicago White Sox in its season-opening series and had a chance to sweep before dropping the finale 6-3 on Sunday. The Royals will host the Twins on Tuesday, in the opener of a two-game series. Minnesota split a pair of pitching duels with the Cleveland Indians in the first two games, winning 2-0 and losing 2-1, before busting out in a 9-3 victory on Sunday. The Twins begin an eight-game, three-city road trip with tonight's contest. Tonight's pitching matchup features Jose Berrios (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Brad Keller (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Berrios struck out 10 and walked one while scattering two hits over 7.2 scoreless innings to earn the win on Opening Day over two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber of Cleveland. The 24-year-old posted his first 200-strikeout campaign in 2018 (202 in 192.1 innings) and became the team's youngest Opening Day starter since Brad Radke in 1996. Berrios went 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts against Kansas City last season, striking out 28 in 26 total innings, but more on that later. Keller earned his first Opening Day assignment as well and was nearly as sharp, striking out five with one walk and two hits allowed in seven scoreless innings (KC won 5-3). The 23-year-old split time between the bullpen and the rotation in his 2018 rookie campaign, surrendering just seven HRs in 140.1 total innings last season. Keller went 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts against Minnesota in 2018 (KC was 2-0). Berrios was very impressive on Opening Day but note that in his nine career starts vs KC, the Twins have gone 2-7. The Royals counter with Keller, who went 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season of 2018. As noted above, this contest kicks off an eight-game road trip for theTwins and while they were 49-32 (+$1,345) at home in 2018, they were a pathetic 29-52 (-$2,121) on the road. The team's $3,466 difference between home and road games represented MLB's biggest dichotomy in 2018. I'm not sure Minnesota even deserves being the favorite here, no less by -$1.41 (opening number). Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-19 | Wichita State +100 v. Lipscomb | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* NIT Game of the Year is on Wichita St at 7:00 ET. Wichita State opened its American Athletic Conference schedule with a 1-6 record (8-11 overall) but head coach Gregg Marshall's team has since won 14 of its last 17 games. That run includes three road wins in seven days over Furman, Clemson and Indiana to become the first team in the NIT’s 82-year history to sweep the top three seeds in its region en route to the semifinals (note: new format of four, eight-team regions only began in 2007). Now 22-14 Wichita State will meet 28-7 Lipscomb in the semis. The Bisons will be playing their first neutral-site contest of the season, after producing a nation-best 14 true road wins. THREE of those wins have come in the NIT, at Davidson, at UNC-Greensboro and at NC State. Veterans like 6-8 senior McDuffie (18.3 & 4.9), senior guard Haynes-Jones (12.0) and 6-11 junior Echenique (9.2 & 5.9) have beem mainstays. However, as Gregg Marshall notes, his key freshman continued to improve throughout the season, as they acclimated to the competition. “They’ve had ample time to grow as far as their future. This experience, this year in total has to help them going forward. They will certainly be veterans at this point next year or even at the beginning of next year.” Dexter Dennis (8.3 & 5.4) was named to the AAC all-rookie first team, PG Jamarius Burton (f5.9 & 3.4 APG ) set a freshman school record with a 1.86 assist-to-turnover ratio and Erik Stevenson averaged 6.6 PPG in 21.8 minutes per as the sixth man. Lipscomb saw more than 90 percent of its offensive production return after the program's first NCAA Tournament appearance a season ago and enters this contest having won 19 of its last 22 contests. Senior guard Garrison Mathews (20.7) was the Atlantic Sun Player of the Year and had a career-high 44 points in the 94-93 win at NC State. He's paired with junior PG Kenny Cooper (10.6 & 4.3 APG), who scored the eventual game-winner with 1.7 seconds remaining against the Wolfpack. The 6-7 Marberry (14.8 & 4.2) is the team's third double digit scorer, while the 6-8 Pepper (7.5 & 7.2) is the team's leading rebounder. The Bisons rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense (84.0), scoring margin (plus-13.9) and assists (17.6). It's defense vs offense in this one. The Shockers have held their three NIT opponents to a tournament-best 62.7 PPG, while the Bisons have averaged 89.7 PPG, tops in the 32-team field. I'm betting that defense wins here plus one has to hand it to Shockers head coach Gregg Marshall. Wichita State is one of just FOUR programs that have won 22 or more games in each of the last 10 seasons. The Shockers are joined by little-known BKB schools like Duke, Kansas and Gonzaga in that 'club!' Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-19 | Red Sox -129 v. A's | 0-7 | Loss | -129 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 10:07 ET. The reigning champion Boston Red Sox opened the 2019 season seeking a fourth World Series title in 15 years. However, the Red Sox lost THREE of four in Seattle last week, with the team's lone win coming Friday night when a three-run HR in the ninth inning gave them a 7-6 victory. The pitching staff struggled mightily against the Mariners, serving up 11 HRs while surrendering 34 runs. (team ERA of 7.26). Boston will try to bounce back from a rough season-opening series when they begin a four-game road set against the Oakland Athletics on Monday. In stark contrast to Boston's struggling pitching staff, Oakland has received vastly different results from its staff. Oakland pitchers gave up a total of just nine runs as the team won three of four vs the visiting LA Angels (SIX of the nine runs came in the team's lone loss in the series!). Monday's pitching matchup will see Boston lefty David Price (6-7, 3.58 ERA in 2018) square off against Oakland's Aaron Brooks (0-0, 0.00 ERA in 2018). Price will be making his 300th appearance in the major leagues (290th start) , after being limited to two during spring training due to norovirus. He was pounded in those outings, surrendering seven runs on eight hits and four walks over 6.2 innings. However, Boston feels like Price is ready. The Red Sox were 22-8 in Price's 30 regular season starts in 2018, giving him MLB's eight-best moneyline mark (+$1,294). He has made 10 career starts against Oakland, going 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA (teams are 5-5). Brooks has not made a major-league start since 2015 when he went 3-4 in nine starts for the Athletics. He did not resurface in the majors until last season, when he allowed one hit over 2.2 scoreless innings for Oakland out of the bullpen. Brooks was tagged for three runs and six hits over 3.1 innings while with Kansas City in his only career appearance against Boston back on June 21, 2015. Price was an ALCS and World Series hero for the Red Sox last October, after a career filled with postseason horrors! I'll back him here to 'stop the bleeding' for a Red Sox staff. Let's NOT forget that Boston was 87-38 vs right-handers in 2018 (+$3,060), averaging a healthy 5.5 RPG. Brooks could very well be over his head in this one. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-19 | Cubs -108 v. Braves | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs scored a 12-4 win at Texas in their season opener (Thursday) but then saw their pitching implode in back-to-back losses on Saturday and Sunday. Chicago scored three first-inning runs on Saturday by Yu Darvish walked seven of the first 13 batters he faced, failing to make it out of the third inning in his first meeting with his former team. (Texas would win, 8-6). The Cubs then squandered leads of 4-0 and 8-5 in Sunday’s 11-10 setback at Texas, with the winning run scoring on Pedro Strop’s wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth inning to cap a two-day stretch in which Chicago pitchers gave up 19 runs on 22 hits and 18 walks! The Cubs now head to Atlanta for three games, part of the team's season-opening nine-game road trip. The Atlanta Braves are the only team in baseball without a win, as their pitching struggled in their season-opening three-game series with Philadelphia. Atlanta pitchers allowed 23 runs, 20 walks and eight HRs (8.63 team ERA). Freddie Freeman collected six hits against the Phillies and owns a 1.492 OPS but Atlanta's offense generated just 11 runs in the tree games. Atlanta CF Ender Inciarte and 3B Josh Donaldson, the top two hitters in the lineup, have gone a combined 2-for-22 to start the season. Monday's starters are Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (14-11, 3.44 ERA in 2018) and Atlanta's Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90 ERA in 2018). The Cubs rewarded Hendricks with a four-year contract extension ($55 million) last month, after he recorded the second double-digit win season of his career. He made 33 starts and threw a career-high 199 innings, with an impressive 161 strikeouts and only 44 walks. Newcomb got bumped back in the rotation, so he could start the home opener against Chicago. The lefty pitched well in the first half of 2018 (8-5 with a 3.51 ERA,) but struggled in the second half when his ERA soared to 4.58 in his final 11 starts. Hendricks is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA in four career appearances (three starts / team is 2-1) against the Braves but did not face them last year. As for Newcomb, he's 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in three career games against the Cubs (Braves are 0-3). Atlanta won its division last year so an 0-3 sweep at Philly is a bit of a shock. I'll note that the Braves did not lose three in a row last season until games 31-33, a three-game sweep by San Francisco in early May. Yes, the Cubs are in the midst of a nine-game road trip but is that really bad news? After all, the Cubs lead the NL and rank second in the majors in road victories since the start of the 2015 campaign (183). Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The 39-37 Detroit Pistons visit the Pacers on Monday, before hosting them back in Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons were able to beat Portland 99-90 on Saturday, despite All-Star forward Blake Griffin sitting out to rest a sore knee. It was Detroit's 11th straight home win (11-0 ATS run!), its best run since it captured 16 straight during the 2005-06 season.The Pistons currently own the 6th-seed in the East, a half-game ahead of the Nets, one game up on the Heat and just 1 1/2 games ahead of the Magic, who are the 9th-seed. The 45-32 Pacers have dropped SEVEN of their last eight games to fall into fifth place in the East, after dropping a 121-116 decision at home to the Orlando Magic. "It's unacceptable," Indiana PG Darren Collison told reporters. "We can't lose a game like that, especially at home. Especially when everything is going our way most of the game. It's a tough loss for us but it was inexcusable on our part." Detroit was held to 11 points in the first quarter and 31 in the first half against teh Blazers but got things together at both ends in the second half on Saturday for the 99-90 win. PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) led the way with 28 points and center Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.3) collected 22 points and 19 rebounds in the absence of Griffin (24.7-7.7-5.5), who is listed as day-to-day. If Grifffin sits, Detroit just may not have enough against Indiana. The Pacers lost four straight games after leading scorer Victor Oladipo (18.8) suffered a ruptured quadriceps tendon in his right knee in late January but they got over the initial shock of losing him by posting a 9-3 record in February. However, they're increasingly feeling his absence, particularly during crunch time. The playoff-bound Pacers finished March 4-10, including a 1-7 mark over the last eight games. Indiana's players and coaches collectively bemoaned a defensive effort that allowed 65 second-half points on Saturday. Prior to that loss, most of the damage had occurred on the road for the Pacers. Indiana checks in 28-10 SU at home this season and since Feb 1, has gone 10-3 SU at home (lost to the Warriors and the Magic, two times) and off that recent loss to Orlando, should be highly motivated here. Indiana and Boston have the same record but currently, Boston owns the tiebreaker. With a game in Detroit on Wednesday (remember, the Piston s are on an 11-0 SU & ATS run at home), this game qualifies as a "must win." I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Pit Pirtaes at 1:05 ET. The St. Louis Cardinals lost THREE of four at Milwaukee to open the 2019 season, despite off-season acquisition Paul Goldschmidt having a great series with four HRs (note: Goldschmidt is the first St Louis player with four HRs in the team’s first four games since Mark McGwire in 1998). Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates split two games in Cincinnati over the weekend, losing 5-3 on Thursday, getting rained out on Saturday and then winning 5-0 on Sunday. St Louis has finished ahead of Pittsburgh in the division standings for 19 consecutive years and the Central rivals meet for the first time this season in a quick two-game set starting Monday afternoon in Pittsburgh. Adam Wainwright (2-4, 4.46 ERA in 2018) will take on Chris Archer (6-8, 4.31 ERA in 2018). Retirement rumors surrounded Wainwright after the 37-year-old was limited to eight starts which totaled just 40.1 innings last season. Wainwright is a the three-time All-Star and has finished in the top three in Cy Young Award voting four times. Chris Archer had a rough start with the Pirates following last year’s trade from Tampa Bay but was dominant in September, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP while holding opponents to a .217 average over his last five starts of 2018 and racking up 36 strikeouts in 30 innings. Wainwright has added pitches to his repertoire as he tries to transition from a power pitcher to a more finesse approach but the bottom line is that he is older now and has been limited by injuries. Wainwright is 13-7 with a 4.36 ERA in 37 games (31 starts) against the Pirates. As for Archer, he has faced the Cardinals twice without a decision, throwing seven innings of one-run ball in 2017 and getting roughed up for five runs (three earned) in 4.1 innings last season. Wainwright has never pitched well in Pittsburgh (even during his best years), as he checks in with a 5.54 ERA in 18 games (14 starts) at PNC Park. Archer received a rousing reception from the Pirates and their fans after he came over in a trade from Tampa Bay last season and it's time to "put up or shut up" in 2019. We'll see but right here, I'm giving this so far underachiever a shot, as I have little faith in Wainwright. Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Kings v. Spurs -9 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 7:05 ET. The 44-32 San Antonio Spurs have clinched a playoff berth for the 22nd straight season. A little history first, before getting to the game. The Spurs' playoff streak matches the league's longest run of postseason appearances, set by Syracuse/Philadelphia from 1950 to 1971. The Nationals made the playoffs 14 straight times (1950-63) before moving to Philadelphia after the 1962-63 season and becoming the 76ers. Philadelphia then advanced to the postseason eight straight times (1964-71). However, San Antonio has plenty to play for over the next 11 days (regular season ends April 10), in the tightly-bunched Western Conference field. The Kings' 119-108 loss at Houston on Saturday locked up the playoff spot for the Spurs, who are in seventh place in the West but just 1 1/2 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers for sixth and trail fifth-place Utah by two. San Antonio opened its current three-game homestand with a 116-110 victory over Cleveland on Thursday, its 11th win in 14 contests. Sacramento was the last remaining team in the West with a mathematical chance of catching the Spurs or Oklahoma City for a postseason berth but had no answer on Saturday, as James Harden scored 50 points for the Rockets. The 37-39 Kings still have a chance to avoid a 13th straight losing season with a strong finish but don't expect them to add to their win total in this spot. The Spurs are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS over their last 14 overall plus come into this contest having won 12 of their last 13 at home. Speaking of home, the Spurs have won 11 straight at home over the Kings, a streak that dates back to 2012. The number is a little high but LAY IT! Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Michigan State v. Duke -2 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Duke at 5:05 ET. Top-seeded Duke (32-5) has squeezed by its last two opponents in the final possession and now takes on red-hot second seed Michigan State (31-6) in the East Region final at Washington D.C. The Blue Devils have survived UCF's game-winning shot in the second round and Virginia Tech’s attempt to tie in the final second Friday, in the Region semifinal (Tech missed three shots in the last 10 seconds!) . Meanwhile, Michigan State has taken a rather smooth path to this stage, with three double-digit victory margins in the tournament, including Friday night's 80-63 handling of third-seeded LSU. Senior PG Cassius Winston (18.8 & 7.6 APG) is averaging 18.7 points and seven assists in the tournament and MSU's frontcourt has terrific depth. There's the 6-9 Ward (13.4 & 6.8), the 6-8 Tillman (9.8 & 7.2) and the 6-7 Goins (9.1 & 9.0). What's more, Tom Izzo received career games from freshmen forwards Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown to beat LSU. Henry (6.0 & 3.9) registered career highs of 20 points along with six assists, while Brown chipped in 15 points, also a career high. Duke freshman forward RJ Barrett (22.6-8.7-4.3) told reporters after recording 18 points and a career-high 11 assists Friday. “And we somehow find a way to keep winning at the end. It’s great and we’re not surprised by it, but we’ve just got to keep it up.” Blue Devils freshman phenom Zion Williamson (22.7 & 7.6) scored 23 and added three blocks in the 75-73 victory over Virginia Tech. He is averaging 26.8 points in six games since returning from a knee sprain. However, head coach Mike Krzyzewski called PG Tre Jones’ (9.5-3.7-5.3) performance Friday “magnificent,” after the freshman PG registered season highs of 22 points and five made three-pointers while handing out eight assists with ZERO turnovers in 40 minutes. Freshman swingman Cam Reddish (13.6 points) was a late scratch Friday due to a knee injury and his status for Sunday is uncertain. Here's the bottom line. Mich St is clearly playing better, as the Spartans have rolled in the Big Dance so far and come in on an EIGHT-game winning streak. Meanwhile, it's been 'Escape City' for Duke, a team many think is overrated. That said, Duke holds a 12-2 all-time record against Michigan State, including SEVEN straight victories since a 2005 NCAA Tournament win for the Spartans. Coach K 'owns' Tom Izzo! Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Giants +147 v. Padres | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Underdog Shocker is on the SF Giants at 4:10 ET. San Francisco opened the season by losing back-to-back games by a combined score of 6-1 but secured a 3-2 victory on Saturday behind its bullpen, which held the Padres scoreless over the final four innings. San Diego was seeking its first 3-0 start since 1984, but came up short. The series final is Sunday, as veteran Jeff Samardzija (1-5, 6.25 ERA in 2018) of the Giants faces San Diego's Chris Paddack, who is making his MLB debut. Samardzija sat out most of last season due to a shoulder injury but recorded a 3.97 ERA over 22.2 innings during spring training. “We’re really excited by where he’s at and how he’s thrown the ball,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. “He’s got a good four-pitch mix going and command. He’s throwing the ball with a lot of confidence, too.” Samardzija is 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 17 career games (15 starts / teams are 10-5) against San Diego. Paddack is the second straight Padres starting pitcher to be making his major league debut Sunday afternoon (Nick Margevicius did so Saturday). He had a great spring (gave up three ERs over 15 .1 innings in five starts), following a triumphant 2018 minor league return from Tommy John surgery. Paddack dominated at the Single-A and Double-A levels last season, posting a 2.10 ERA with 120 strikeouts against only eight walks in 90 innings. We will find out about Paddock come April but how is he this big of a favorite over a vet like Samardzija? He had made at least 32 starts in five straight seasons, before being sidelined by shoulder woes last season. "I feel healthy again, and that's a huge plus," Samardzija said during a strong spring training. Let's NOT forget that just two teams won fewer home games than San Diego (30) last year and just two lost more money (-$1,760) at home than the Padres. I'm betting this dog barks LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Angels v. A's -101 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Oakland starters Fiers and Estrada flopped in Japan in back-to-back losses to the Mariners but back at home, Oakland's starters have been terrific. Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada and Brett Anderson each pitched six shutout innings in the first three games of this series, turning over 4-0, 2-0 and 4-0 leads, respectively, to the Oakland bullpen. However, the A's have been able to only hold hold to two of those leads., as Oakland's bullpen has allowed eight late runs. The Angels look for a split of the series in Sunday's finale, while the A's look to take THREE of the four. Tyler Skaggs (8-10, 4.02 ERA in 20918) will square off against Frankie Montas (5-4, 3.88 ERA in 2018). Skaggs makes his season debut, coming off career highs in wins, starts (24), innings (125 1/3) and strikeouts (129) last year while posting his lowest ERA in six major-league seasons. Montas made 11 starts last year (team was 7-4), after strictly working out of the bullpen the previous season. Skaggs has not fared well against Oakland in his career, going 2-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 10 starts plus he battled forearm fatigue during spring training, where he surrendered nine runs - eight earned - and 11 hits over 9.2 innings in three starts (7.45 ERA). Montas has faced the Angels out of the bullpen three times in his career, yielding one run and eight hits with three strikeouts and one walk over 5.1 innings. The good news for Oakland fans is that Montas had a strong spring, as he allowed just two runs - one earned - and 11 hits over 16 innings in two starts and three relief appearances (0.56 ERA). Oakland was MLB's top earner last season (+$3,663, going 51-30 at home, +$1,680). The A's were 22-12 at home in day games in 2018, including 8-3 vs lefties, averaging 5.0 RPG. Look out Mr Skaggs! Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-19 | Mets v. Nationals -135 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nats at 1:35 ET. DeGrom out-dueled Scherzer in Thursday's opener (2-0) and Saturday, the Mets won an 11-8 slugfest. Can the Mets complete a three-game sweep and open 3-0 for the first time in six years? Zack Wheeler (12-7, 3.31 ERA in 2018) gets the nod, coming off his best campaign for New York, while Washington newcomer Patrick Corbin (11-7, 3.15 ERA in 2018) goes for the Nats (Corbin signed a $140 million deal this off-season). Wheeler has been hampered by injuries for much of his career but made 29 starts in 2018 and ranked second on the team in victories. The former first-round pick was 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA over the final three months of the season and he defeated Washington twice in three matchups. Corbin earned his big deal after a spectacular 2018 in which he struck out 246 batters in 200 innings while holding opponents to a .218 average. While Wheeler pitched well down the stretch for the Mets, he posted a 4.80 ERA in five spring training starts. What's more, he's just 4-8 with a 4.14 ERA in 13 career starts vs Washington (Mets are 5-8). Corbin does not have a good history vs the Mets (1-4 with a 5.32 ERA in eight starts / team is 3-5) but I expect him to come up big in his Washington debut, as the Nats avoid the dreaded home sweep to a division rival. Good luck...Larry |
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03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4.5 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Elite Eight Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 8:49 ET. 26-9 Purdue blew an 18-point lead in the Sweet 16 against Tennessee (99-94 in OT) but survived behind a career-high 27 points from Cline, a pair of tying free throws late in regulation by Edwards (29 points) and a sweet 15-of-31 performance from three-point range. The Boilermakers hope to end lengthy Final Four drought in the South Region Finals up against No. 1 seed Virginia. 32-3 Virginia has bounced back from last season's embarrassing upset against a 16th seed in its tournament opener, to reach the Elite 8, giving them a chance to advance to the Final Four for the first time since 1984 (note: Purdue's last Final 4 was back in 1980). Edwards (23.8) and Cline (12.1) are Purdue's lone double digit scorers and while the 7-3 Haarms is a huge figure, he averages just 9.5 & 5.5. Purdue has impressively shut down Old Dominion, routed defending champion Villanova and outlasted Tennessee in overtime, in the first three rounds of this event. Purdue has scored an average of 93 points in its last two wins, with Edwards averaging 32.3 points in the tournament. Virginia has reached the Elite 8 by defeating Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma and Oregon (all seeded ninth or lower!). The Cavs are a perimeter oriented team, led by the trio of Hunter (15.1 & 5.1), Guy (14.9 & 4.4) and PG Jerome (13.0 & 5.3 APG). Guy entered the tourney as UVa's leading scorer but made just 8 of 38 shots (21.0%), including 3 of 26 on threes! The 6-9 Diakite is UVa's lone big man of note but he's averaged just a modest 7.3 & 4.2 on the season. However, he's scored 38 points and pulled down 29 rebounds in the three tourney games so far. Guy has HUGELY underachieved so far and Hunter has been disappointing, as well (he has surpassed 16 points only once in his last six games). If those two 'click,' this will be an easy UVa win. If not, Virginia has proven it can win with a defense allowing 54.8 PPG (1st) on 38.1% shooting (4th), including 28.1% on threes (2nd). This could be UVa's year. Good luck...Larry |
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