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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-19-19 | Cubs -122 v. Nationals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Chi Cubs at 7:05 ET. The Washington Nationals will make their first appearance of the season on Sunday Night Baseball, when they host the Chicago Cubs. The Nationals got clobbered 14-6 on Friday to open this three-game set but picked up a 5-2 win on Saturday. Washington, just 19-26 on the season, now has a chance to earn its second straight series win, after going nearly a month without one. Meanwhile, the 26-17 Cubs are in danger of losing their second straight series after going 9-0-1 over their previous 10. Tonight's pitching matchup features Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 2.86 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (2-2, 6.00 ERA). Hendricks has followed his breakout 2016 season (16-8, 2.17 ERA) by going 7-5 (3.03) and 14-11 (3.44). He's just 3-4 in 2019 (team is 4-4 in his eight starts) but he's pitched way better than his record. Hendricks gave up seven runs in five innings in his final start in April, before beginning his current dominant stretch. It began with his third career shutout May 3 against St Louis (4-0), followed by back-to-back eight-inning efforts while giving up a total of just one ER (14-1 KW ratio) Washington has had trouble with the back end of its rotation and Hellickson being a prime example. He allowed five runs in five innings of a 6-2 loss to the New York Mets on Tuesday, the FOURTH time in five starts in which he's allowed five runs or more. Let's add that he has not finished six innings in SIX straight starts, Along with his 'ugly' 6.00 ERA, he owns a 1.67 WHIP and .289 BAA. Making matters worse, the former Rookie of the Year (2011 seems like 'light years' ago!) has an 8.04 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through his first four appearances (three starts) at home in 2019. As noted above, expect Hendricks to bring his "A-game" (team has won his last three starts with Hendricks posting an 0.36 ERA) and note that he also owns a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs Washington, with the Cubs going 7-2. The top-four batters in the Cubs' lineup went a combined 1-for-14 on Saturday but that WON'T happen here, vs the sad-sack Hellickson. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:05 ET. The Bucks needed a 32-17 fourth quarter to win and cover Game 1 against the Raptors, including ending the game on a 10-0 run. I had the Bucks in that one and came right back with them in Game 2, saying that it was my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee was an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason at that point and after its Game 1 win, checked in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. I said "lay the points," again. The Bucks had their way with the Raptors in Game 2, jumping out to a 35-21 first quarter lead and a 64-39 advantage at the half. After trailing by as many as 28 points, Toronto made a push to draw to within 13 in the third quarter but the final was 125-103. Antetokounmpo finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds but Ersan Ilyasova (17 points), Malcolm Brogdon (14) and George Hill (13) combined to go 17-of-29 from the floor off the bench in Game 2, with each of the three logging more than 20 minutes. "We have a great group of coaches who trust us, and I think it's all about chemistry," Ilyasova told reporters. "When we go to locker room, even when we lose the game, everybody stays positive. It's just we're all about the next game. I think for us it's big time when we go to the playoffs." Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points in each of the first two games but in Game 2, Toronto's other four starters combined for just 33 points. Center Marc Gasol struggled to two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 2 and placed the blame for the loss on himself. However, he was hardly alone. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry, who scored 30 points on 10-of-15 shooting in Game 1, slumped to 15 points on 4-of-13 in Game 2. "The ball," as they say, is Toronto's court. The Raptors were 32-9 during the regular season at home and have gone 5-2 in the playoffs. Toronto has been best-known for its underachieving postseason but the difference in this year's team is, Kawhi Leonard. He's averaging 31.7 PPG (on 52.7% shooting) and 8.5 RPG in the postseason. It's up to him to 'carry' the Raptors to a win. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Blues v. Sharks -125 | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SJ Sharks at 3:08 ET. Jordan Binnington made 29 saves in leading the Blues to a 2-1 win in Game 4, which sent this series back to San Jose for a Game 5, tied at two-all. The San Jose Sharks are 7-3 this postseason at SAP Center but the St Louis Blues are an impressive 6-2 on the road in the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs. That sets the stage for Sunday's Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. Binnington, coming off shaky efforts in Game 1 and Game 3 losses (stopped just 46 of 56 shots for an .821 save percentage), set a franchise record with his 10th postseason victory this year and became only the 10th rookie goaltender to record double-digit wins in a single playoff run in league history. Martin Jones, San Jose's oft-criticized goalie rebounded from allowing four goals in the second period to stop the next 15 shots that came his way in Game 3, when the Sharks came back to win in OT. "It gets lost when we tie it up and win it in overtime," captain Joe Pavelski said. "But the critical saves he makes down the stretch ... (that) buys us some time to tie that thing up, were pretty important, pretty special." Don't blame Jones for the Game 4 loss, as he stopped 20 of 22 shots. Returning home will be good news for two San Jose players. Tomas Hertl scored a power-play goal in the third period for his first point of the series in Game 4 (and second on the road), as opposed to the 13 points (eight goals, five assists) he's posted at home. Defenseman Brent Burns has 13 points (four goals, nine assists) in 10 home contests in the playoffs. We know that when conference finals are tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 owns an all-time series record of 19-8. More importantly, it's IMPOSSIBLE to ignore what's been going on with San Jose. After overcoming a 3-1 deficit against Vegas in winning Games 5, 6 and 7, the Sharks have alternated wins and loses in the team's last 11 games, winning Games 1, 3, 5 and 7 vs the Avs (lost Games 2, 4 and 6), with that trending continuing this series (won Games 1 & 3, while losing Games 2 & 4). I've been 'dialed in' on these two teams (9-1 in contests involving at least one of these teams in the 2019 playoffs) and I'll 'go to the well' again here, expecting the Sharks to follow their above-mentioned pattern and follow a game 4 loss with a win in Game 5. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Brewers -119 v. Braves | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 1:20 ET. Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has hit safely in four straight contests after going 2-for-5 with a lead-off HR in the 10th inning on Saturday that gave the Braves a 4-3 triumph over the Milwaukee Brewers and extended their winning streak to four games. The Brewers were able to send the game to extra innings by tying things up in the ninth but finished 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position and suffered their second straight loss after winning NINE of their previous 12 games. Taking the mound on Sunday will be Brandon Woodruff (6-1, 3.72 ERA) and Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 8.02 ERA). Woodruff opened the season with a 5-3 mark in 27 career appearances (just 12 starts) but has been a HUGE part of Milwaukee’s early success this season. He can become the first National League pitcher to record seven wins with a victory here, as the Brewers have gone 7-2 (+$451) in his nine 2019 starts, so far. He enters this contest 4-0 with 1.23 ERA over his last four, allowing only three runs and 17 hits in 22 innings with 27 strikeouts. Woodruff will be facing the Braves for the first time,. Foltynewicz was 13-10 with a 2.85 in 2018, finishing eighth in the NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he pitched just two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. After posting a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, he made his season debut on April 27. He has allowed eight HRs over 21.1 innings in four starts in 2019, after surrendering a career-worst eight runs on seven hits (including three HRs) and three walks in 4.2 innings of a 14-3 loss to St Louis on Tuesday. Foltynewicz has yet to allow fewer than four runs in any of his four starts in 2019! In contrast, Woodruff is 4-0 and has not allowed more than ONE run in anyof his last four starts (1.23 ERA). Yes, Foltynewicz is 2-2 with a 2.90 ERA in six career games (five starts) vs the Brewers but he's currently NOT that pitcher! Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Golden State Warriors have gone up 2-0 in their series with the Blazers, despite the absence of K.D. (Durant was averaging a NBA postseason-high of 34.2 PPG). The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "I thought they outplayed us for much of the night, the majority of the night, but we brought enough competitive fire in the second half to overcome their great play. We've been here before. I think our experience helped us. We've done this a few times, and yeah, we stole it for sure. They outplayed us." As for Portland, the Blazers head home with some confidence due to the way they played for most of Game 2. "You know, you hate to lose a game, but I think we showed that we can compete with them," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "It was a much better game than we played in Game 1. Now we've got to go get two at home, but it starts with Game 3. But yeah, we beat them in the regular season, and we did play a good game, much better game at both ends of the floor tonight. So, we've got to take that into Game 3." This series was billed as a battle between the NBA's two-best backcourt duos. After two games, Curry and Thompson have 'KO'd' Lillard and McCollum. The Warriors' dynamic duo has combined to average 56.5 PPG, while the Blazers' twosome is averaging just 40.5 PPG. Curry has averaged 35.3 PPG in the three games KD has missed, with Thompson chipping in 25.7. Since Game 6 of the LAC series, Draymond Green is averaging 13.7-10.7-7.9. Maybe the Warriors can "win it all," without KD? Lillard came into the series averaging 28.4 PPG in the 2019 playoffs and McCollum came in averaging 26.6. A return home HAS to help. Here's the bottom line. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-1 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-3 SU run on their home floor. "Home is where the heart is" (right?) and expect Lillard and McCollum to respond plus don't ignore the fact that Seth Curry matched his postseason high with 16 points off the bench in Game 2 and that Rodney Hood is averaging 14.5 points off the bench in the series. If not NOW, WHEN for Portland? Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:15 ET. The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox met last night in a battle between the last two World Series champions. Rick Porcello had shut out the Astros through seven innings but Jake Marisnick doubled leading off the eighth and George Springer followed with his league-leading 17th HR to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 advantage. Houston's bullpen finished off a 3-1 victory for the Astros, as Ryan Pressly set a major league record with his 39th consecutive scoreless appearance in the eighth and Roberto Osuna made it through a shaky ninth for his 11th save.The Astros have won won 10 in row, giving them MLB's best record at 30-15. The Red Sox had entered the game winners of 12 of 15 but went a horrendous 1-for-11 with RISP to leave 10 men on base! The pitching matchup for the middle game of this three-game set will be Corbin Martin (1-0, 3.38 ERA) vs Hector Velazquez (1-2, 3.95 ERA). Martin made his major league debut against Texas this past Sunday and allowed just two runs on three hits and one walk over 5.1 innings (also had nine Ks) to earn the victory (Astros won 15-5). The effort did not come as a shocker, as Martin had posted a 1.48 ERA in five games, including four start, for Triple-A Round Rock while striking out 28 in 24 innings before being recalled.Velazquez will be making his seventh start in his 13 appearance of 2019. He just went a season-high five innings in last Sunday's 11-2 win over Seattle, allowing two runs. He owns a 4.19 ERA as a starter, with Boston going 4-2 (Red Sox have won his last THREE starting assignments). As noted above, Boston entered last night's game 12-3 over their last 15 plus the Red Sox had been 8-1 in home night games vs right-handers, as well. Again, as noted above, the Red Sox floundered at the plate in going 1 of 11 with RISP. DO NOT expect a repeat-performance, against a rookie making just his second career start and FIRST here in Fenway. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Mets -119 v. Marlins | 0-2 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 4:10 ET. 'Sevens were wild" for the Miami Marlins as they not only entered Friday with the worst record in MLB but they had lost SEVEN straight games overall and SEVEN in a row to the New York Mets. However, after being shut out in back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday by in-state rival Tampa Bay, the Marlins pounded reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom for seven runs (in just five innings) in Friday's 8-6 victory. It was just the Marlins 11th win in 42 games this season. Pete Alonso hit a pair of HRs for the Mets but it wasn't enough to prevent the Mets from losing for the first time in SIX matchups against Miami this year. Today's pitching matchup features Steven Matz (3-2, 3.86 ERA) for New York and Pablo Lopez (2-5, 5.93 ERA) for Miami. Matz returns to the rotation following a two-week stint on the injured list (radial nerve discomfort) and will make his second start of the year in Miami. He gave up three runs (one earned) over 5.1 innings in a no-decision on April 1 (Mets won, 7-3). Matz is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs Miami (team is 6-3). Lopez is back on the mound after the worst start of his career last week in New York, when the Mets shelled him for 10 runs and 10 hits (including three HRs) over a season-low three innings. I will note that he had recorded a pair of superb outings in his previous three starts, blanking Atlanta on three hits over six innings on May 5 and permitting just an unearned run over 6.1 innings at Cleveland on April 23. Lopez CAN'T be as bad again but as noted above, Matz has a good history against Miami. What's more, except for an 'ugly' outing at Philadelphia on April 16 in which he failed to record an out (was charged with EIGHT runs in a 14-3 loss), he has been New York's most consistent pitcher, allowing three runs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Mets are 5-1 in those six starts). If there isn't enough already to go against Miami, I'll add that the Marlins are just 2-7 when facing a lefty in 2019, averaging only 3.2 RPG, after going 12-26 vs lefties in 2018. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Rays -121 v. Yankees | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET. The defending champion Red Sox limped out of the gate but have begun to play well. However, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees capitalized on Boston's early struggles and found themselves in a battle for the AL East's top spot with the opening of a three-game series in the Bronx this weekend. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season but entered Friday 26-15, just a half-game up on New York. The Yankees have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), climbed back into the race at 26-16 by going 20-7 since April 16. In Friday's contest, New York entered the ninth inning down 3-1, before rallying for three runs off Tampa Bay closer Jose Alvarado. The Yankees are now winners of nine of their last 11 and jumped a half-game ahead of the Rays at 27-16 (Rays are 26-16). Blake Snell (3-4, 3.56 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay on Saturday afternoon, opposed by New York's Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.44 ERA). The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner struck out 12 in just 5.2 innings against New York at home last Sunday but suffered the loss in a game Tampa Bay dropped 7-1 (he allowed just two runs on four hits). Snell has been a hard-luck pitcher this season, as he's received a total of SIX runs of support in his four losses. Tanaka won opposite Snell last Sunday, scattering one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out seven. He is 9-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 15 career starts against the Rays (Yanks are 11-4) but I have to go with Snell in this quick "re-hook." Snell may be just 3-4 (team is 3-5 in his eight starts) but as noted above, he's gotten almost NO support when losing. That doesn't figure to happen all year. A closer look at Snell's 2019 performance reveals a 62-11 KW ratio in 43 innings, an 0.98 WHIP and a .203 BAA. Snell and the Rays are the play.. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals features the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the series averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard averaged 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in his 12 playoff games, including setting a franchise record with nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Game 1 was was somewhat of a surprise, as the underdog Raptors led most of the way on Wednesday. However, the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 over the final 12 minutes, including 10-0 run in the final 3:31 of the contest for a 108-100 win and COVER! Talk about a 'miracle' ATS win for Milwaukee bettors. Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points but only two came in the final stanza (both on FTs), as he struggled through a 10-of-26 shooting performance. PG Lowry was great, scoring 30 points (his 2019 playoff-high), including 14 poinst in the 4th quarter. Incredibly, he was the only Toronto player to make a FG in the 4th quarter (5 of 7), as the other seven players went a combined 0-15. In fact, on the game, take away Lowry and Leonard and the remainder of the Raptors went 14 of 51 from the floor (27.4%). Giannis was not spectacular but he did have a double-double (24 & 14). The game's breakout star was center Brook Lopez, who scored 29 points (a career playoff-high) with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots. That's after averaging just 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in the five-game conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics. Another piece of good news for Milwaukee was that combo guard Malcolm Brogdon scored 15 points off the bench (in 27 minutes), after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston. He had missed the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. The Raptors HAVE to feel that they let Game 1 "get away," while the Bucks believe they can improve Friday night in Game 2, after shaking off their rust. Obviously, both teams can improve in Game 2. The Raptors shot 37 percent (34-for-92) overall, including 35.7 percent (15-for-42) from behind the arc. The Bucks shot 39.8 percent (37-for-93) from the floor and only 25 percent (11-for-44) from three-point territory. I had the 'lucky' Game 1 winner in Milwaukee and wrote prior to that game, that this series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench entered averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. In an "off game" for both teams, Milwaukee's bench outscored Toronto's, 22-12 (winning margin was eight points!). It's my belief that Game 1 was a HUGE "opportunity lost" for Toronto. Milwaukee is an incredible 9-1 SU & ATS this postseason (no other remaining team comes close to matching that) and after its Game 1 win, checks in at 38-9 SU at home, averaging 119.0 PPG. Lay the poitst again, as this win comes with more 'breathing room!'
Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Sharks v. Blues -133 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the StL Blues at 8:08 ET. A hand pass by San Jose's Timo Meier, undetected by the officials and not reviewable under NHL rules, led to San Jose defenseman Erik Karlsson's goal 5:23 into overtime on Wednesday. The 5-4 victory puts San Jose up 2-1 in this best-of-seven series. Karlsson, the two-time Norris Trophy recipient joined the ageless Joe Thornton with two scores in Game 3, as the 39-year-old became the oldest player in NHL history to record a multi-goal performance in a playoff game. Meanwhile, St Louis Blues head coach Craig Berube told reporters on that his team is intent on moving past the controversy. "It is hard (to move on), for sure. It's not easy to do. It's a test. That's how you look at it," Berube said Thursday. "It's a tough play, tough call, but it's just a test, and we've been tested over and over throughout the season and the playoffs, and I think we're pretty good at bouncing back. That's the way I look at it. It's a mental thing more than anything." Lost in the controversy was Martin Jones' performance in Game 3, as the oft-criticized goalie rebounded from allowing four goals in the second period to stop the next 15 shots that came his way. "It gets lost when we tie it up and win it in overtime," captain Joe Pavelski said. "But the critical saves he makes down the stretch ... (that) buys us some time to tie that thing up, were pretty important, pretty special." In contrast, Jones' "opposite number," StL rookie goalie Jordan Binnington (1.89 GAA and .927 SP in the regular season), has stopped just 46 of 56 shots (.821 SP) in losing Games 1 and 3. However, it's IMPOSSIBLE to ignore what's been going on with San Jose. After overcoming a 3-1 deficit against Vegas in winning Games 5, 6 and 7, the Sharks have alternated wins and loses in the team's last 10 games, winning Games 1, 3, 5 and 7 vs the Avs (lost Games 2, 4 and 6), with that trending continuing this series (won Games 1 and 3, while losing Game 2). I've been 'dialed in' on these two teams (8-1 in contests involving at least one of these teams in the 2019 playoffs) and I'll 'go to the well' again here, expecting the Sharks to follow their above-mentioned pattern, one more time. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +127 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Houston Astros (WS camps in 2017) and the Boston Red Sox (WS champs in 2018) took turns knocking each other off in the playoffs en route to a World Series title the last two seasons. The teams meet for the first time this regular season Friday night, as the 29-15 Astros meet the 23-20 Red Sox in the opener of a three-game series. The Astros enter with MLB's best record, visiting Fenway on an EIGHT-game winning streak. The defending champs opened 2019 at just 3-9 but Boston has found its 'sea legs,' and open this series with 12 wins in its last 15 games. Friday's pitching matchup will be Gerrit Cole (4-4, 3.88 ERA) going up against Rick Porcello (3-3, 5.15 ERA). Cole produced his best ERA since 2015 with Pittsburgh and the top winning percentage of his career last season, finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting (Cole finished 2018 at 15-5, 2.88 ERA). Cole has not matched his success from last season so far, although he struck out 12 over six innings against Texas on Saturday to earn his third straight win. He does lead the majors with 86 strikeouts and has struck out at least nine in each of his last four starts. Porcello won the Cy Young award in 2016, going 22-4. However, he fell to 11-17 the following year, before bouncing back to go 17-11 last season. He opened teh current season 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA in his first three starts but is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings (Red Sox have won all five!). It's NOT often one can "take a price" with Boston at home and Cole lost his lone start at Boston in the ALCS last fall, surrendering five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks in six innings. Cole will face a Boston team that is 8-1 at home in night games vs right-handers (89% winning spot), averaging 7.4 RPG. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Dodgers -124 v. Reds | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play Friday night in Cincinnati against the Reds, as the teams open a three-game weekend series. The 29-16 Dodgers have opened a 4 1/2-game lead in the NL West (LA has won the division SIX consecutive seasons), coming off a 7-2 homestand and having won 14 times in their last 19 overall contests. The Reds opened the season 1-8 and sat just 5-12, after getting swept in LA by the Dodgers from April 15-17. However, after beating the Cubs 4-2 in Thursday's rubber match between the National League Central rivals, Cincy has won two straight series and comes into Friday's contest 20-24 (15-12 since last seeing LA). Rich Hill (0-1, 4.20 ERA) takes teh mound for LA and he'll be oppose by Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 4.17). Hill just recently rejoined LA's rotation, not making his season debut until April 28, after recovering from a sprained right knee. He suffered his first loss of 2019 against Washington on May 9, giving up three runs after facing only four batters before coasting over his final 4.2 innings. DeSclafani is unbeaten over his last six starts, although he has settled for four no-decisions in that span. That said, the Reds are 5-1 in that stretch. Zeroing in on this contest, Hill's scheduled start was moved back a day in order to face the Reds' predominantly left-handed lineup, as he's held left-handed hitters to a .154 BAA. What's more, while the Reds are somehow 9-3 vs lefties this year, they are averaging just 3.8 RPG against them (those numbers do NOT correlate). Also note that the Reds did not fare very well when they met the Dodgers in mid-April, averaging TWO runs per in getting swept in Los Angeles. The Dodgers' starting pitchers have been pretty special throughout the team's 14-5 run, going 10-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 122 strikeouts versus just 17 walks across 121.1 innings. Meanwhile, DeSclafani is 1-4 with a 4.11 ERA in five career starts vs Los Angeles and LA is 20-9 against righties this season, averaging 5.5 RPG. LA is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Rays v. Yankees -112 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The defending champion Red Sox limped out of the gate but have begun to play well. However, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees capitalized on Boston's early struggles and find themselves in a battle for the AL East's top spot. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season but currently sits 26-15, just a half-game up on New York. The Yankees have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), have climbed back in the race at 26-16, having gone 20-7 since April 16. That stretch includes New York taking TWO of three last weekend at Tropicana Field. New York was rained out Monday and Tuesday but then swept Wednesday's doubleheader from the Orioles (before a Thursday off day). As for the Rays, they posted 4-0 and 1-0 shutout wins over the Miami Marlins on Tuesday and Wednesday, to kick off their five-game road trip (like NY, TB had Thursday off). Yonny Chirinos (5-1, 3.61 ERA) is expected to get the bulk of the innings after Tampa Bay utilizes an opener for the second straight game (Ryne Stanek), the 13th time this year and 67th time since the start of last season. I still don't get it? New York lefty CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.26 ERA) makes a "regular start" for the Yankees. Chirinos has made a start in four of his eight appearances in 2019 and has pitched at least five innings in six of his eight outings. He came out of the bullpen at home against New York on Saturday and surrendered two runs on four hits while earning the win in Tampa's 7-2 victory. Sabathia took the loss in that game (5 IP / 3 hits / 2 ERs) and the veteran has yet to complete six innings in any of his six starts his season. However, here's the rub. Tampa Bay is 7-6 in its last 13 games (even after that 2-0 sweep of MLB's worst team, the Marlins), after starting the season at 19-9. What is ore concerning for Tampa Bay, is that some more injuries are now starting to crop up. The Rays placed catcher Mike Zunino (left quadriceps) and ace Tyler Glasnow (right forearm soreness) on the injured list last week. In Miami, they lost catcher Anthony Bemboom to a sprained knee in the fifth inning Wednesday and he is headed to the injured list. They also lost Yandy Diaz (sore left ankle) and outfielder Guillermo Heredia (bruised right hand) Wednesday but X-rays were negative and both players are day-to-day. As for the Yankees, they are slowly getting healthier and have not only won 20 of their last 27 games but welcome the Rays to the Bronx, having won 12 of their last 15 home games. Sabathia is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts at home (NYY are 3-0), striking out 13 in 15 total innings. I really like CC as he gets a shot at some "instant revenge" from last Saturday night. Yanks grab the win and move into first place! Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson totally out-played Portland's backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum in Game 1. Curry scored 36 points (made NINE three-pointers) and Thompson added 26. In contrast, Lillard had 19 points and McCollum 17. What's more, the Warriors shot 50.5% from the floor, including making 17 of 33 three-pointers. The Blazers made just 36.1% from the floor, including 7 of 28 on three-pointers. Curry took several uncontested three-point shots during his fourth 30-point effort of the postseason and Damian Lillard knows that something needs to change. "That was very poor execution defensively on our part," Lillard said. "Just having our bigs back that far; understanding the team we are playing against, they are not going to shoot midrange jumpers and try to attack the rim. If they see the opportunity to shoot a 3, they are going to tell you. They shoot it at a high clip. We've got to bring our guys up and run them off the line, and (Tuesday) they were setting solid screens and coming off shooting practice shots." Portland needs to shore its defense plus CAN'T commit another 21 turnovers. Kevin Durant is expected to miss Game 2 and after ranking 28th out of 30 teams in points off the bench during the regular season, the Warriors have gotten some much-needed help from its reserves in Game 6 vs Houston and in Game 1 vs the Blazers. Kevon Looney had 14 points and Shaun Livingston 11, as the Warriors dominated the Rockets 33-17 off the bench in that 118-113, series-clinching win. Then in Tuesday's Game 1, all eight Warriors backups who participated recording a positive plus/minus as Golden State's reserves outscored their Portland counterparts 36-28. However, will the Warriors be able to keep that up? The Warriors are just 19-28-1 ATS at home this season (including 3-4 in the playoffs) and remember won Game 4 at OKC plus Games 2 and 7 at Denver, which was the NBA's best home team this year. Head coach Terry Stotts is confident his team will shoot better and NOT turn the ball over as much. Lillard noted after Game 1 that Portland shot horribly, while Golden St shot "lights out," yet the Blazers trailed by just six points entering the fourth quarter. I agree. Take the points!
Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -100 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. Austin Riley, one of the top-ranked prospects in the Braves minor-league system, made his big-league debut last night vs the St Louis Cards. He hit a 438-foot HR leading off the fourth inning, as the Braves won 4-0, to even this three-game series at one game apiece. It was Atlanta's FOURTH win in five games, while the Cards were limited to three hits in falling for the 10th time in their last 13 games! Taking the mound for the Cards will be veteran Adam Wainwright (3-3, 4.15 ERA), opposed by Atlanta's Julio Teheran (2-4, 4.26 ERA). The good news for Atlanta is that Wainwright has already made as many starts this season as he did in an injury-marred 2018 , when he finsihed 2-4 with a 4.56 ERA. He will make his ninth start of 2019 tonight and Wainwright has given up more than three ERs He allowed only one run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks in a season-best seven innings (he settled for a no-decision in the Cards' 2-1 loss) in his last outing. The Braves won three of Teheran's first four starts of 2019 but he then posted a 6.11 ERA in losing THREE in a row. However, while he's opened May wiht back-to-back no-decisions, he's allowed just five hits and on eER in those starst over 12 innings (0.75 ERA), with Atlanta winning both contests. Teheran will be making his seventh career start against St Louis. He is 2-3 with a 3.18 against the Cardinals (Braves are 3-3) and beat them 5-1 the last time he faced them, on June 29, 2018. Wainwright is 9-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 18 career games (13 starts / Cards are 10-3) against the Braves, but he hasn't faced them since August 2017. Wainwright is NOT the same pitcher these days, despite a better than expected beginning to the 2019 season. More importantly, Wainwright will be backed by a team which has lost 10 of 13. St Louis has scored 14, 17 and six runs in those three wins but a total of just 20 runs combined, in those 10 losses. The play is on Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | A's v. Tigers +124 | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 1:10 ET. The Detroit Tigers were outscored 24-6 while losing three straight to Houston to begin their 10-game homestand and now welcome the Oakland A's to Comerica Park for the first of four, Thursday afternoon. The Tigers have lost 12 straight against the A's dating to May 5, 2017 but Oakland limps in off back-to-back loses at Seattle Monday and Tuesday, to open their nine-game road trip. The losses at Seattle to start the road trip, gives Oakland 11 losses in its last 12 on the road. The starting pitchers for Thursday's afternoon contest are Chris Bassitt (1-1, 2.55 ERA) and Spencer Turnbull (2-2, 2.42 ERA). Bassitt worked a season-high 7.2 innings while allowing three runs in a 3-0 loss against Cincinnati last Thursday. Bassitt's made just four starts in 2019 but despite his solid 2.55 ERA and excellent 0.97 WHIP & .189 BAA, the A's have lost THREE of the four. Turnbull started slowly for the Tigers in 2019, 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA through his first three starts (Tigers were 1-2) but he has gone 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his last five starts (team has won his last four outings!). Opponents are batting just .218 against the 26-year-old Turnbull in 2019. While Turnbull has never faced Oakland, Bassitt is 2-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts vs Detroit. I noted that the A's have drooped 11 of their last 12 on the road (now sit just 5-15 on the road on the season) but I'll add that the A's are a woeful 3-12 (an 80% "go-against") this season vs right-handers on the road. The right-handed Turnbull will be tough to beat. Say 'good-bye' to Detroit's 12-game losing streak to Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -112 | 11-3 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers followed a seven-game winning streak by losing Sat and Sun in Wrigley against the Cubs and then made it THREE straight loses in Monday's 7-4 loss at Philly. However, the Brewers have rebounded win back-to-back games Tuesday (6-1) and Wednesday (5-2), giving them NINE wins in their last 12. The host Philadelphia Phillies look to salvage a split of this four-game series Thursday afternoon, looking to end a two-game skid after having won 11 of their previous 15. Zach Davies (4-0, 1.54 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and will be opposed By Philly's Zach Eflin (5-3, 2.47 ERA). For the most part, Davies has put last year's injury-plagued season behind him (2-7, 4.77 ERA in 13 starts / team was 5-8). Davies worked into the seventh inning for the third time this season on Saturday, allowing just one run on six hits in a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs (team lost 2-1 in 15 innings). He's yet to lose in eight starts and has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. That said, he faces a red-hot mound opponent in Eflin. He became the majors' first pitcher with two complete games this season and recorded his second career shutout after scattering four hits and striking out seven in Saturday's 7-0 win at Kansas City. He also notched a complete game against Miami on April 28, highlighting a 3-0 mark with a 1.39 ERA in his last three starts. Eflin has also made eight starts in 2019 (team is 5-3, the same as Davies) and he's allowed more than two ERs just TWO times (in one, he allowed three runs). I'm backing Philly and Eflin here, because while Davies is 3-0 with an 0.76 ERA at Miller Park, he's won just ONE of his four road starts this season (team is 2-2). Let me also add that in two career starts vs Philly, he owns a 7.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his two career starts against the Brewers, plus he's a PERFECT 3-0 in three home starts this season (1.17 ERA / 0.83 WHIP). Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -153 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Dodgers beat the Padres 6-3 last night and will conclude their brief two-game series with NL West rival San Diego tonight at Dodger Stadium. Cody Bellinger homered and drove in three runs in Tuesday's win, raising his major league-leading batting average to .409. He tops the majors with 41 RBI and is third with 15 HRs, one behind co-leaders Christian Yelich of Milwaukee and George Springer of Houston. Los Angeles(no w 28-16) won for the 13th time in 18 games, as 22-20 San Diego lost for the fourth time in its last six, with Padre pitchers allowing 35 runs in the FOUR losses. San Diego lefty Matt Strahm (1-2, 3.00 ERA) takes the mound up against LA's Kenta Maeda (4-2, 4.03 ERA). Strahm entered this season with just EIGHT starts among his 86 career appearances. However, all of his seven 2019 appearances have been in the role of a starter. After being roughed up for five runs in just 2.2 innings by Arizona in his season debut, he has two ERs or less in SIX straight outings! Strahm has posted a 1.50 ERA in four career appearances (one start) against the Dodgers. Maeda ended his three-start winless stretch in his last start, giving up one hit over six scoreless innings in a 5-0 victory over Washington last Wednesday. He is 5-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 14 career appearances (12 starts / team is 7-5) vs San Diego. There is nothing bad to say about Strahm's efforts but Maeda was moved into Wednesday's starting slot ahead of a struggling Rich Hill, as he was preferred against the Padres over Hill. The Padres scored four runs in four innings off Maeda the last time they faced him (May 5) but following an RBI double by Greg Garcia, Maeda retired the last eight batters he faced. " I had a good feeling on my pitches around the fifth and sixth innings in my outing at San Diego," Maeda said through an interpreter after his start against the Nationals (see above). "The biggest difference was my slider. I had a good feeling on the break and I was able to carry that over (Friday)." Also note that his start prior to the one against San Diego, Maeda pitched five scoreless innings vs San Francisco. Maeda will face a San Diego lineup that has averaged only 3.2 RPG in 19 contests this season vs right-hnaders in night games. Dodger Stadium is NO place for those bats to 'get well." As for Strahm, he faces a Dodger lineup that is averaging 5.79 RPG at home, helping LA to an 18-6 home mark. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game 1 Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. The Eastern Conference finals comes down to the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and the second-seeded Toronto Raptors. Game 1 is Wednesday night and the series features tow of the NBA's best. Leading MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, as the Bucks went 8-1 SU and ATS against the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics, outscoring those opponents by an average of 15.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard is averaging 31.8 points(8.5 RPG) in 12 playoff games, including a franchise record nine straight 20-point outings. Leonard had 41 points in Toronto's Game 7 two-point victory over the 76ers, including first Game 7-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history, which featured four bounces on the rim. Milwaukee has reached the East finals for the first time 2001, while Toronto is in the East finals for just the second time in franchise history. Leonard is carrying Toronto's offense, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) are the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the postseason. Regarding Lowry, he's been a HUGE underachiever in his postseason career and he's shooting just 41.5 percent from the floor (28.1% on threes), so far. In contrast, Antetokounmpo's supporting class has been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) have more than looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looks ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. Yes, Leonard makes Toronto a much more viable contender but can I really overlook the team's 3-14 record in playoff openers (1-1 this postseason)? This series is NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Milwaukee's bench is averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's is averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee comes in 37-9 at home this year (including the playoffs, averaging 119.2 PPG. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Rockies v. Red Sox -134 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. Colorado and Boston will conclude a two-game interleague series Wednesday night at Fenway. Last night, as Colorado snapped Boston's five-game winning streak. An 11th-inning RBI single was the difference in the 5-4 victory for the Rockies. Colorado prevailed despite tying a franchise mark by striking out an incredible 24 times! Boston lost, despite setting a major league record by registering 21 strikeouts in nine innings, including 17 from ace Chris Sale, the most ever recorded by a pitcher in seven frames. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature German Marquez (4-2, 3.43 ERA) of Colorado, going up against Boston lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 4.53). Marquez tied a season high by allowing 10 hits his last time out but he only gave up two runs while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the San Diego Padres. That marked only the THIRD time in nine starts this season that he failed to pitch at least six innings but be aware he that he had allowed nine runs and three HRs over previous two starts. As for Rodriguez. since getting rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) and 16 hits in losing his first two starts of the season (12.38 ERA), he is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six starts (Red Sox are a PERFECT 6-0!). He is coming off his best effort of 2019, tossing seven scoreless innings against Seattle on Friday in a 4-1 win. It was the third time in four starts he allowed one run or less and marked the fourth time during his unbeaten streak that he worked six innings. Marquez has been steady all season for Colorado but Rodriguez has settled in after an 'ugly' start. It's not too hard to remember that the Red Sox went 19-4 in his starts in 2018, giving him MLB's sixth-best moneyline mark (+$1,387). He's 3-0 in four home starts in 2019 (team is 4-0), with a 2.59 ERA, while holding opposing hitters to a .193 batting average. He takes the mound for a team that is 7-1 in home night games against righties this season, averaging 7.6 RPG. Pretty easy to back Boston and Rodriguez in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -152 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the Arz D'backs at 3:40 ET. Josh Bell hit two HRs and extended his hitting streak to a career-high 14 games in Tuesday’s 6-2 win at Arizona, as the Pirates snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Diamondbacks. Arizona was held to four hits and fell to 2-4 on its 10-game homestand. The Diamondbacks have scored three runs or less in EIGHT of their first 13 games of May. The rubber match of this three-game series goes late this afternoon at Chase Field. Chris Archer (1-2, 4.33 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh and Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.16 ERA) for Arizona. Archer landed on the injured list with inflammation in the thumb on his pitching hand back on April 27 but is set to return here. Archer struggled in three starts before the injury, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA (Pittsburgh lost all three games). Archer is facing Arizona for the first time since 2016 and owns a 1-0 record and 4.70 ERA in two career starts vs the Diamondbacks (teams are 1-1). Greinke is coming off an EIGHTH straight quality start last Friday, holding Atlanta to one run and five hits over seven innings. Greinke did not factor in Arizona's 2-1 loss to Atlanta nor did he in his previous start at Colorado. He gave up three runs on six hits over six innings and left that contest with a 5-3 lead which Arizona extended to 7-3, before the bullpen allowed a five-run eighth in an 8-7 loss. Archer has been a long-time underachiever while Greinke, comes in 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 54-6 KW ratio over his last eight starts covering 53.1 innings (team is 6-2). Greinke owns a 9-4 record and 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs Pittsburgh (teams are 10-4), including 4-1 with a 2.20 mark over his last five outings As noted above, Arizona had won NINE consecutive games against Pittsburgh, dating to last season, before being held to four hits in Tuesday's loss. However, I won't ignore the fact that the D'backs have won 13 of their last 15 against the Pirates going back to 2017. That's an 87% win rate. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -146 | 6-2 | Loss | -146 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Pirates entered Monday night's opener of a three-game series with Arizona having won eight of their last 11 games, including sweeping the final three contests of a four-game series in St Louis against the Cards.However, Arizona took last night's contest 9-3, giving the D'backs a 5-0 record against the Pirates in 2019 and a run of NINE consecutive wins against Pittsburgh dating to last season. Taking the mound Tuesday night will be Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove (1-4, 4.20 ER) and Arizona's Luke Weaver (3-1, 2.98 ERA). Musgrove took the mound against Oakland back on May 3 with a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA through his first five starts of 2019. However, he was battered for seven runs (five earned) and six hits while lasting only 2.2 innings of a 14-1 loss to Oakland on May 3. He then followed that effort by allowing eight ERs in just three innings of last Friday's 17-4 loss at St Louis. Is it fair to say "he's come back to earth?" Weaver was a late first-round draft pick by St. Louis in 2014 but he was just 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA last season with the Cardinals, before being part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade in the off-season. He's added a cut fastball to his fastball/changeup mix and it seems to be working. Weaver in the midst of his best stretch of his major league career with a 1.82 ERA in his past five starts. I went against Musgrove his last time out and noted at the time that I expected more outings like his May 3 outing vs Oakland. I was right (see recap above). In contrast, Weaver is in the middle of his best stretch ever (see above). Want more? I noted already that Arizona has won NINE if a row over Pittsburgh but will add that the D'backs have won 13 of their last 14 against the Pirates going back to 2017. That's a cool 93%. Enough said! Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NHL 10*Game of the Week is on the Car Hurricanes at 8:08 ET. The Boston Bruins needed to come from behind to win each of their first two series but they have outscored the Hurricanes 11-4 in winning the first two games of this Eastern Conference finals against the Carolina Hurricanes. The 2-0 start in this series has extended Boston's postseason winning streak to FIVE in row (since trailing Columbus 2-1 in the previous round). For Carolina, the Hurricanes return home for the second time in this postseason facing a 2-0 deficit. They overcame that in the first round against the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, winning all three home games in that series and then winning a Game 7 in Washington. Boston took Game 1 by a 5-2 score, then won 6-2 in Game 2, despite its vaunted No. 1 unit contributing only two assists. It was the team's third line which came up big, as Charlie Coyle, Marcus Johansson and Dalton Heinen combined for seven points to boost their totals to 11 goals and 17 assists in the playoffs. As good as Boston's No. 1 line is, the Bruins have had 21 players post at least one point in this spring's playoffs (19 players have at least one goal!). Then there is goalie Tuukka Rask, who has stopped 50 of 54 shots in the first two games (.926 save percentage). Speaking of goaltenders, Petr Mrazek was hurt in Game 2 of Carolina's second round series against the New York Islanders and did not return until the series opener against Boston. He maintains the injury and subsequent layoff were not factors in giving up 10 goals in the first two games (.808 SP). “I’m feeling good, no issue with that,” Mrazek said. “I don’t think it was that long a break, maybe nine or 10 days. I was feeling pretty good. I’m not going to look past, just look forward to the next one.” However, head coach Rod Brind’Amour acknowledged that he is contemplating a change in net for Game 3, which would mean a switch to Curtis McElhinney, who earned three wins by turning aside 71 of 75 shots in 7 1/2 periods against New York (.947 SP). Either way, expect to see an improved Hurricanes team in Game 3. Obviously, the Hurricanes face a "must-win situation" when they host the Bruins tonight. The good news is, Carolina is a PERFECT 5-0 at home in the 2019 playoffs, outscoring their opponents 22-7. I'm "all over" Carolina in Game 3 on Tuesday night. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Rays -122 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. Florida rivals Tampa Bay and Miami meet for the first time this year on Tuesday night, in the opener of a brief tow-game interleague series. The Rays got off to a quick 11-3 start in 2019 and remain atop the AL East at 24-19, although the Yankees are just a half-game back and the Red Sox just three back. As for the Marlins, they seemed destined for the major league 'basement,' as they own MLB's worst record (10-29) and its second-worst moneyline mark (-$1,287). Tonight's pitching matchup would not be a considered a "marquee" one but is sure is a good one. Charlie Morton (3-0, 2.64 ERA) takes the Mound for Tampa Bay and Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.11 ERA) for Miami. Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Caleb Smith is in just his second full major league season He wasn't a top draft pick (14th round) and didn't go to a big-name university (Sam Houston State). He entered the 2-019 season having made 25 appearances (18 starts) with a 5-7 record and 4.88 ERA. However, after two no-decisions to open the season (Miami lost both games), Smith has a 1.42 ERA with 41 strikeouts and nine walks in 31.2 innings. He's 3-0 and Miami is 4-1. Smith owns an 0.89 WHIP and a .176 BAA on the season. Here's the rub. Smith's shown no weak spots but Morton has been everything Tampa Bay had hoped he'd be (2.64 ERA / .208 BAA / 11.4 Ks per nine innings). As noted at the top, the Yanks and Red Sox are now breathing down Tampa's neck and the Rays don't want to miss an opportunity to grab two wins against MLB's worst team. The Marlins rank last in runs scored (2.69 per), OPS (.592) and HRs (124), plus just 27th in team BA (.219). The Rays own MLB's best road record (12-5) and get the job done, here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Brewers v. Phillies +102 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies made it SIX wins in their last eight games with Monday's 7-4 victory over the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. For the Brewers, Monday's defeat was the team's THIRD in a row, following a seven-game winning streak. Milwaukee's bats showed some 'life' last night with 12 hits and four runs, after Milwaukee had scored just TWO runs over its last 24 innings in a 2-1 Saturday loss (15 innings) and 4-1 Sunday loss to the Cubs. The 24-16 Phillies will be looking for a fourth straight victory when they host the 24-19 Brewers in the second game of a four-game series on Tuesday night. The Brewers will hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 4.25 ERA) and the Phillies will counter with Jerad Eickhoff (2-1, 1.50 ERA). Woodruff has allowed just three ERs over the last 16 innings of his three previous starts (1.69 ERA), winning each outing. It represents quite an improvement from the 5.81 ERA he posted in his first five starts of 2019, Eichoff's first start of 2019 didn't come until April 16. The Phils have won FOUR of those five starts and like Woodruff, Eickhoff comes in on an impressive three-start stretch. He has allowed just ONE one earned run over his last 20 innings, going 2-0 with an 0.45 ERA (Phils are 3-0). I played the Phillies last night and will be on them again tonight, atb this great price. They are 15-7 at home, averaging 5.8 RPG and on the season have gone 21-11 vs right-handers, including 13-5 at home. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | A's v. Mariners -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's opened the 2019 MLB season back on March 20 and 21 in Tokyo, Japan. The Mariners won both games, jump-starting the team's 13-2 start. However, as the Mariners welcome the A's to Seattle for a two-game set Monday and Tuesday, the Mariners sit just 20-23 (doing the math, that's a 7-21 record since their blistering start). The A's, who won 97 games last year to claim a wild card spot (Oakland was MLB's top money-maker in 2018 at +$3,663), come in just 19-23. Even at this early stage, it's hard to see either team challenging the Astros in the NL West, as Seattle is currently seven games back of Houston, while Oakland sits 7 1/2 games back. Monday's pitching matchup features Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.48 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.54 ERA). Fiers clearly has a tough act to follow, as he tossed his second career no-hitter and 300th in Major League Baseball history in his last outing. Fiers threw 131 pitches in Tuesday's 2-0 win over Cincinnati, a total that was the most in a no-hitter since he needed 134 when he silenced the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug 21, 2015. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as entering his no-hitter last Tuesday, Fiers ERA sat at 6.81. Kikuchi, a Japan native, is a 2019 rookie. He pitched in Japan against the A's, lasting 4.2 innings while allowing two runs (one earned) in a 5-4 Seattle win (settled for a no-decision). Kikuchi has had his ups and downs in his first season but he comes in having allowed one run on three hits in each of his last two starts (14.2 IP / 1.23 ERA / 13-2 KW ratio). The Mariners have NOT played well at home in 2019 but the team HAS to be glad to return to Seattle after getting swept in Fenway this past weekend by the Red Sox, getting outscored, 34-8. I've always looked to "go-against" a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and in Fiers case, I'm going against a pitcher who in four road starts in 2019, has lasted just 18.2 innings while allowing 25 hits and 17 ERs. That gives him an 8.20 road ER and 1.66 WHIP! Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaker is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies have won FIVE of their last seven contests, including the last two of their three-game series in Kansas City by a combined 13-1 score. In fact. Philly has allowed just THREE total runs in those last five victories! The Phillies return to Philadelphia and will begin a seven-game homestand with a four-game series against the 24-18 Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers began their 10-game road trip with a SEVENTH consecutive win (7-0 Friday at Wrigley) bu then lost the final two contests of their three-game series in Chicago by scoring just TWO runs in Saturday and Sunday losses to the Cubs. Saturday's game lasted 15 innings, so Milwaukee opens this series having scored just TWO runs over its last 24 innings! Freddy Peralta (2-1, 6.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Brewers and Aaron Nola (3-0, 4.57 ERA) for the Phils. Peralta will be making his sixth start of the season but his first since May 2, when he was pummeled for NINE runs (six earned) on eight hits and three walks over just four innings of an 11-6 home loss to Colorado. He came out of the bullpen last Tuesday, giving up three hits with two walks and five strikeouts over five scoreless innings to earn the win in a 6-0 Milwaukee victory over Washington. Peralta has never has faced Philadelphia. Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola struggled to get untracked in the early going of his Opening Day start vs Atlanta, surrendering an RBI single in the second inning and issuing a career-high five walks before settling down to pick up the win in a 10-4 victory against Atlanta. He then suffered through three straight rough starts (all no-decisions but Philly losses), allowing 15 ERs on 19 hits in just 13.1 inning s (10.13 ERA). However, he remains unbeaten after eights starts in 2019. His last four starts have seen him go 2-0 (team is 3-1). He's looked like the Nola of 2018 in his last three, allowing just three ERs over 18.1 innings for a 1.47 ERA. What's more, he's 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts vs Milwaukee (team is 4-1). Philadelphia is 14-7 at home in 2019, averaging 5.71 RPG. The Philly lineup will face Peralta, who takes a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP into this contest. Expect Nola to stay unbeaten in 2019 and unbeaten in his career vs Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +150 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season 2-5 but Sunday's 15-5 rout of the Texas Rangers was the Astros' FIFTH consecutive win and their EIGHTH in their last nine. Houston opens a three-game series at the Detroit Tigers on Monday with a 26-15 record, giving them a 6 1/2 game lead in the AL West (the largest lead of any division in MLB). Houston is averaging 8.2 runs during its 8-1 stretch and has hit 28 HRs over its last 10 contests (75 HRs on the season ranks 2nd). In contrast, the Tigers are at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to power with an American League-low 32 HRs, although they hit two in Sunday's 5-3 win at Minnesota to gain a split of the four-game series. Detroit sits 18-20, 6 1/2 games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central. Taking the mound on Monday night will be Brad Peacock (3-2, 4.30 ERA) and Matthew Boyd (4-2, 2.86). Peacock delivered a stellar performance against Kansas City in his last outing, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 12 in a 9-0 home win over Kansas City. He decided to pitch out of a full delivery for the first time in three seasons and it paid off. He went 13-2 (3.00 ERA) when the Astros won the 2017 World Series,making 34 appearances, including 21 starts. However, he made just ONE start in 2018, in 61 appearances (mostly used in middle-relief, as he had just three saves). He's made SIX starts in eight appearances in 2019 and has been so-so, prior to his most recent outing. Peacock's "opposite number" tonight will be Boyd, who has been VERY good in 2019. It seems he has found the consistency that eluded him during a breakout 2018 season, when Boyd allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of 31 starts in 2018 but still finished with a 4.39 ERA. Boyd has been incredibly consistent since allowing four runs (three earned) in his season-opener. He's posted SEVEN consecutive quality starts entering this contest and has allowed just 36 hits over 50.1 innings this season, with 63 strikeouts against only 11 walks (owns an 0.93 WHIP and .197 BAA in 2019). I'm sold on Boyd but as for Peacock, not so much. I also like Boyd facing a team coming off a contest in which it established season highs in runs (15) and hits (18) on Sunday. We're getting a "nice price" on this 'LIVE' home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:05 ET. The Cubs evened their series with the Brewers by earning a 2-1 victory in 15 innings on Saturday (Milwaukee won 7-0 in Friday's opener). Chicago's 'marathon win' gives them a 23-14 record and leaves Milwaukee at 24-17, meaning the Cubs are back on top in the NL Central. Milwaukee's loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Brewers. Meanwhile, Chicago's walk-off win was its THIRD by walk-off HR in the last five games and the Cubs enter Sunday having won 11 of their last 13. Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee in this rubber game of the three-game set and will be opposed by Chicago's Jon Lester (2-1, 1.41 ERA). Chacin found a home in his first season with Milwaukee, posting a career high in wins (15-8, 3.50 ERA), then notched a pair of victories in the postseason. Milwaukee was 23-12 in all of his regular season starts, going plus-$1,079 vs the moneyline. However, his 2019 season season has not resembled last year. The Brewers won his first two starts but then lost his next FOUR. He has been solid in his last two, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA), both of which were Milwaukee wins. He does have a 2.81 ERA in 11 career starts vs Chicago but his teams are just 5-6 in those games. Lester has been outstanding in three starts since returning from the injured list, allowing three runs (one earned) over 18 innings with 19 strikeouts (0.50 ERA). In fact, the 35-year-old vet has not allowed more than two runs in any of his six starts this season. Along with his excellent ERA of 1.41, he owns a 1.03 WHIP and a BAA of .215. Lester is 4-3 with a 2.66 ERA in eight starts against Milwaukee (teams are 5-3). Both teams’ bullpens were taxed Saturday, as the Cubs used seven relievers and the Brewers used six.That purts extra presure on tonight's startser and that surely favors the Cubs. Lester owns a 179-99 record with a 3.47 ERA in his 14-season career, ranking fourth in victories among active pitchers! Chicago has not lost a series since dropping two of three at Milwaukee from April 5-7, so why expect them to lose the rubber game of this series, tonight? The Cubs are 14-6 at home in 2019, allowing opponents just 2.95 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants -110 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Cincinnati Reds opened the 2019 season 0-7 on the road but have come to San Francisco this weekend and won 7-0 and 5-4. They squandered a three-run, first-inning lead on Saturday but after after falling behind 4-3, rebounded for a one-run victory. The Reds are now 9-7 on the road since that 0-7 start and will attempt to complete a sweep of their three-game series against the Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco looks to avoid a fourth consecutive loss, after surrendering a total of 24 runs in its last three. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Tyler Mahle (0-5, 3.69 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (2-4, 3.99 ERA). Mahle has given up fewer than two runs in four of his seven starts this season, including each of his last two, but still is without a victory. He will be making his sixth consecutive road start and seventh overall this year, in what will be his eighth start of 2019. Mahle lost his lone career start vs the Giants back on May 15, 2018 in San Francisco, where he surrendered four runs and seven hits in 3.1 innings Bumgarner, a former World Series MVP, could be making one of his final starts for the Giants, as the free-agent-to-be reportedly submitted a no-trade list to management that includes eight teams. Bumgarner has had an up-and-down season so far, but earned a 14-4 win at Colorado on Tuesday, after not getting a decision in a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 1. He's allowed just four ERs in 12 innings in those two starts. Mahle's two May starts have been brilliant, yet losers. He almost matched Noah Syndergaard for five innings, allowing one run on four hits, in a 1-0 loss at New York on May 2. Five days later, he pitched even better, allowing one run on three hits in six innings, but his "opposite number," Mike Fiers, pitched a no-hitter Tuesday in Oakland. The Reds have scored a total of just NINE runs in his seven starts this season. Now, his hard-luck season continues when he draws Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, looking for the Reds to sweep San Francisco. That's a TALL order, as the Reds are averaging only 3.26 RPG in their 23 road games this season (9-14, overall). I say "no sweep here," in a Bumgarner 'showcase!' Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 2nd Round ‘GAME OF YEAR’ is on the Den Nuggets at 3:30 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28). Their Game 5 home rout of the Blazers (124-98) put them ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 but the Blazers responded with a 119-108 home in Game 6 (Portland's 13th win in its last 14 home games), sending this series back to Denver for a Game 7. Portland's dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard (29.8-4.3-5.8 this postseason) and McCollum (24.5-5.5-3.6) were HUGE in Game 6, scoring 32 and 30 points, respectively. However, backup Rodney Hood erupted for 25 on 8-of-12 shooting, posting a career playoff-high. Hood is averaging 16 points on 60 percent shooting vs the Nuggets. PF Zach Collins chipped in 14 points in Game 6 and the Blazers have outscored Denver by 22 points in 113 minutes with Hood and Collins on the floor during the series (according to NBA.com). An issue for Portland issue has been center Enes Kanter, who is averaging just 6.0 PPG on 26.1 percent shooting over the last three games, after averaging 19.7 on 60 percent through the first three contests in the series. Denver's star center Nikola Jokic is having quite a first-ever postseason. He's averaging 24.8-13.0-8.9 with 11 double-doubles in 13 games (four, triple-doubles). He's averaging 26.4-14.4-8.8 assists against Portland in this series. PG Jamal Murray is averaging 21.6-4.2-4.7 in the playoffs, including 24.7 PPG vs Portland. Veteran PF Paul Millsap is playing as he did when he was in his prime vs Portland, averaging at 18.7 & 9.0. The Golden State Warriors are in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth straight year and await the winner of this Game 7. I've noted above the play of Hood and Collins off the bench for Portland but I've said all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Yes, Jokic is having a "breakout" postseason plus Murry and Millsap have been excellent in this series but note that NINE Denver players have gotten into all 13 games this postseason for the Nuggets. Jokic and Murray are topping 20 PPG, Millsap is averaging 15.0 and Harris is at 14.2. However, FIVE others are chipping in from 4.6 to 9.2 PPG. I expect Jokic to again lead the way (he's dominated Kanter lately) but I also expect Denver's depth to be a difference-maker. Also, Hood and Collins WON'T replicate their Game 6 heroics here for the Blazers. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning FIVE of seven at home in the postseason and the Nuggets are 31-6 in their last 37 home games. There have been 133 Game 7s in NBA history and home teams have won 105, or 79%. I'm NOT about to "take the points" with the Blazers, as in 48 home games this season (regular and postseason, combined), Denver has outscored its opponents 113.0-to-102.9 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -148 | 10-6 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates began their longest trip of the season (11 games trip) Thursday in St Louis and got clobbered, 17-4. However, Pittsburgh bounced back from that shellacking to eke out back-to-back 2-1 wins. The Pirates have managed a total of just eight runs over the past three games against Cardinals but have a chance on Sunday (with a victory) to post a rare road series win over their NL Central rivals. The Cards stranded 10 and were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position on Friday and then had just two hits on Saturday. St Louis has now dropped EIGHT of 10 overall. Sunday's pitching matchup features Pittsburgh's Steven Brault (0-1, 7.11 ERA) vs St Louis' Dakota Hudson (2-3, 4.63 ERA). Pittsburgh's pitching injuries gave Brault an opportunity to make his first start of 2019 last Sunday. He acquitted himself well against Texas, giving up a pair of runs on a two-run HR and two hits while striking out five over a season-high four inning. He did not factor in the decision, a 5-3 Pirates' win in 13 innings. Hudson is a former first-round draft pick. He pitched five innings in his last outing against Philly but did not get much get support from his defense, as he was charged with eight runs but only two were earned. He had pitched considerably better in his previous start, striking out a season-high seven and giving up two runs (one earned) in six innings at Washington in a hard-luck 2-1 loss. Hudson makes his first career start vs Pittsburgh but has not allowed a run in four relief appearances against the Pirates. As for Brault, he has primarily been a reliever in his career, with 51 of his 61 appearances over the past three seasons coming out of the bullpen. Injuries to Pittsburgh's starting staff have provided Brault an opportunity in the rotation but I'm not sure he's ready for primetime (last Sunday, notwithstanding). Thursday's 17-4 drubbing was the 19th road loss in 24 games in the series for Pittsburgh, before the Pirates rebounded to post a pair of 2-1 victories Friday and Saturday. I am NOT about to call for them to make it THREE straight road wins at St Louis. Expect the St Louis bats to 'wake up' against Brault. Good luck...Larry |
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05-11-19 | Reds v. Giants +118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the SF Giants at 9:05 ET. The Cincinnati Reds opened the season 0-7 on the road but after recording consecutive shutout wins for the first time since 2016, the Reds continue their six-game road trip with the middle contest of this three-game series at Oracle Park with the Giants. Luis Castillo struck out 11 batters over six scoreless innings in Friday’s 7-0 victory, which was preceded by Tanner Roark and three relievers combining on a six-hitter as Cincinnati blanked the Oakland Athletics 3-0 on Thursday. The Reds sit at 17-22 on the season, while the Giants are 16-22, after losing THREE of their last four. Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 3.65 ERA) and Jeff Samardzija (2-1, 3.16 ERA) will oppose each other Saturday night. DeSclafani has pitched well over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 28 strikeouts across 23.2 innings (Reds are 4-0). He is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA in four career starts versus San Francisco (Reds are 3-1, despite his high ERA), including a 12-4 victory Monday back in Cincinnati. Samardzija allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision against Cincinnati last Sunday, He allowed three HRs in the first inning of that contest but then settled in and retired his last 13 batters. Samardzija owns a 3-5 record with a 4.17 ERA in 27 career games (13 starts / teams are 5-8) vs the Reds. DeSclafani has missed much of the past two seasons because of injury but even with his recent hot streak, he has gone a modest 9-9 with a 4.62 ERA in his last 28 starts. As for Samardzija, the Giants have won FIVE of his seven 2019 starts. He not only owns a solid 3.16 ERA but his WHIP is 1.05 and his BAA is .215. He also should enter with a chip on his shoulder, as he allowed HRs on THREE consecutive pitches in the first inning of his start at Cincinnati last Sunday, before settling in (see above). Should Cincy really be the road favorite here? Even with Friday's 7-0 win, the Reds are averaging just 3.1 RPG on the road vs right-handed starters. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry. |
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05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks -125 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* West Conf Finals Game 1 Stunner is on the SJ Sharks at 8:08 ET. St Louis owned the fewest points in NHL back on Jan 3 but the team's fortunes changed with the insertion of rookie Jordan Binnington as its No. 1 goalie. He posted a 24-5-1 mark with five shutouts and 1.89 goals-against average during the regular season and he's more than held his own in his first Stanley Cup action, posting a 2.39 GAA and .915 SP. The Blues upset the favored Winnipeg Jets in a six-game first-round series (won all three road games), then knocked off the Dallas Stars in double-overtime in Game 7 of the second round. San Jose finished second in the Pacific Division with 101 points (second-most points in the West) but promptly fell behind Vegas 3-1 in the first round. However, the Sharks overcame that deficit to take the series in a Game 7 at home. San Jose trailed 3-0 in the third period in that deciding contest but four, third-period goals got then into OT, where they won it. San Jose's second round series win did not come any easier, as they alternated wins and losses with the Avs, clinching the series with yet another Game 7 home win, 3-2. The Sharks won two of three meetings with the Blues in the regular season, but that hardly matters here. San Jose has won three of the five series in the playoffs against St Louis, including a six-game victory in the 2016 conference final. While that series is not really relevant to this year's matchup, it is worth mentioning that San Jose's win over St Louis back in 2016, sent the Sharks to their only trip to the Stanley Cup Final (lost in six games to the Pens). As for the Blues, they last reached the Stanley Cup Final way back in 1970, getting swept by the Bruins (remember Bobby Orr's Game 4 winning goal in OT). The 2016 matchup may be well in the rear-view mirror but both teams feature key players who were involved in the teams' last playoff meeting. Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Joe Thornton, Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic for the Sharks; Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Pietrangelo for the Blues.Binnington's play has been the bigger story this year (regular and postseason) but DON'T overlook San Jose's Martin Jones. His postseason appeared headed 'south,' after being pulled twice in the first four games of the first-round series versus Vegas. However, he turned things around with a sizzling .928 save percentage over the team's last 10 games with San Jose winning SEVEN times. The Blues are 5-1 on the road this postseason but the Sharks are 6-2 at home in SAP Center. It also good news that San Jose captain Joe Pavelski made a triumphant return from injury with a goal and an assist in Game 7 against Colorado. The Blues 'limp' into this series just 1-for-20 on the power play over their last six games. Expect San Jose to grab the Game 1 win. Good luck...Larry |
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05-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -163 | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates began their longest trip of the season (11 games trip) Thursday in St Louis and got clobbered, 17-4. However, Pittsburgh bounced back from that shellacking to eke out a 2-1 victory Friday night, whne Starling Marte delivered a tie-breaking single in the eighth inning. As for the Cards, one night after establishing a season-high total in runs, the Cardinals' offensive struggles returned as they stranded 10 and were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. St Louis has now dropped seven of its last nine games. Jordan Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh and will be opposed by the Cards' Miles Mikolas (4-2, 4.02 ERA). Lyles is coming off his longest outing of the season, lasting 6.2 innings while limiting Oakland to one run and five hits in a no-decision on Sunday (Pittsburgh won 5-3 in 13 innings). It marked the FIFTH time in six starts that he permitted two runs or less. Mikolas has looked much more like the pitcher who went 18-4 for the Cardinals last season, with strong efforts in THREE of his last four starts. He was superb his last time out vs Philadelphia, striking out five and allowing three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 6-0 StL win. Mikolas resurrected his career in Japan after flaming out in his first stint in the majors and returned last season to tie for the NL lead in victories, while finishing fourth in ERA (he was 18-4, 2.83 ERA). He walked just 29 batters in his 32 starts and went 10-1 over the final three months of the season. Mikolas was also among MLB's top money-makers last season, as the Cards were 24-8 (+$1,1418) in all of his starts. He had an awful 2019 debut (March 28), allowing five ERs in five innings at Milwaukee but the Cards are 6-1 in his last seven starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in ALL six of the wins. Meanwhile, Lyles is nothing more than a journeyman, who has so far in 2019, pitched "over his head." Lyles is 0-3 with a 4.63 ERA in four starts against the Cards (teams are 0-4) and let me note that Pittsburgh's 2-1 win last night in St Louis was the Pirates' first in four attempts this season and just their .FIFTH win in their last 19 meetings with the Cards. Good luck...Larry |
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05-10-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Arizona's David Peralta hit his sixth home run of the season with two outs in the ninth inning on Thursday, sending last night's game with Atlanta into extra innings. Then, Ketel Marte's RBI single in the 10th gave the Diamondbacks their second 3-2 victory in two days. It was a great way for Arizona to open its 10-game homestand. As for the Braves, it marked their fourth straight loss, after beginning their 10-game road trip with a three-game sweep in Miami. A pair of vets square off Friday night, Julio Teheran (2-4, 4.63 ERA) for Atlanta and Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.42 ERA) for Arizona. Teheran did end a stretch of three straight losses in his last outing but despite allowing just two hits with two walks and four strikeouts over six scoreless innings at Miami last Sunday, he settled for a no-decision (Atlanta did win, 3-1 in 10 innings). Teheran has not won since limiting the New York Mets to one run and six hits in six innings of a 7-3 win back on April 14. T Greinke also did not factor in the decision at Colorado last Sunday, when he gave up three runs on six hits over six innings. He left that contest with a 5-3 lead and Arizona extended to 7-3, before the bullpen allowed a five-run eighth in an 8-7 loss. That ended a run of six straight wins for Arizona with Greinke on the hill (2.33 ERA in that span), including him allowing just THREE runs over 27.2 innings in his previous four starts (all Greinke wins). Both Teheran (4-1, 2.58 but team is just 5-4 in his nine starts) and Greinke (4-2, 2.92 ERA but team is just 6-5 in his 11 starts) have pitched well against their respective opponents but Arizona swept a three-game series in Atlanta in April, when the Diamondbacks pounded Atlanta relievers for 11 runs on 14 hits and 10 walks in 10 innings. Last night, Atlanta's bullpen once again let the team down. Easy choice here to 'ride' the red-hot Greinke. Good luck...Larry |
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05-10-19 | Phillies -140 v. Royals | 1-5 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the Phi Phillies at 8:15 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened of their six-game road trip through the "Show-Me" State with a 6-0 loss in St Louis against the Cards on Monday. However, the Phillies rebounded with an 11-1 win over the Cards on Tuesday and a 5-0 whitewash on Wednesday. Philly took Thursday off but will open a three-game IL series tonight in KC against the Royals. Philly's pair of dominant wins helped strengthen their standing atop the NL East at 21-15 (Phils own a four-game lead). Kansas City lost for the FIFTH time in seven outings on Wednesday's, falling 9-0 at Houston. The Royals are 13-25 (AL's worst record) and already sit 11 1/2 games out in the AL Central. Jake Arrieta (4-2, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for Philly and Homer Bailey (3-3, 5.25 ERA) for KC. Arrieta's off to a good start in 2019, as he worked at least six innings for the SEVENTH time in eight starts on Saturday against Washington. However, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits. Arrieta owns a 2-0 mark with a 3.70 ERA in four career starts against the Royals (teams are just 2-2). Bailey snapped a two-start losing skid in which he recorded consecutive four-run outings by allowing just two runs in six innings of a 15-3 romp at Detroit on Saturday. Bailey owns a 1-4 record with a respectable 3.74 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Phillies but his teams are just 3-8 in those starts. Philly is 18-10 (averaging 5-2 RPG) against right-handers this season, while KC is juts 10-18 vs righites, including 4-10 at home. What's more, while Arrieta is not the dominant pitcher he was in going 22-6 and 18-8 for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016, he IS a quality arm. Meanwhile, Bailey is coming off a 1-14 (6.09 ERA) season in 2018, where the Reds went 1-19 in his starts (lost a MLB-high $1,748 vs the moneyline). We just saw journeyman Mike Fiers throw the second no-hitter of his his career the other day for the A's. Bailey's in that class, a pitcher who owns two career no-hittters but one who also owns a 70-80 lifetime record (4.58 ERA). This screams "pitching matchup" and it doesn't hurt that Philly is CLEARLY the better team, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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05-10-19 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH is on NYY/TB Over at 7:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees Friday night, in the first of three games between the AL East's top-two teams. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season and currently sits 23-13, 1 1/2-games up on New York. As for the Yankees, they have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), have climbed back in the race at 22-15, having gone 16-6 since April 16 Friday's pitching matchup will feature Domingo German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) and Tyler Glasnow (6-0, 1.47 ERA)> hardly 'household names, the duo is tied with Minnesota's Berrios for the most wins in the majors. German's made six starts and one relief appearance (in which he picked up a win) so far in 2019. He owns a 39-12 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and opponents are batting .225 against him. Glasnow won American League Pitcher of the Month for March and April and in his first May start, limited Baltimore to three hits over seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts last Friday. He has yet to give up more than two runs in his seven starts and boasts 46 strikeouts to go along with seven walks across 43 innings, posting an 0.86 WHIP with opponents batting just .197 against him. Is this a "guaranteed" under? Not so fast! German owns a 7.36 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against Tampa Bay last year and Glasnow will be facing the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year ( will face the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year (his lone appearance against New York occurred in Pittsburgh on April 21, 2017, when he allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.2 innings). Are these two young pitchers for real? Let me note that German entered the season with a 2-7 record and a 5.22 ERA, after posting a 5.57 ERA in 21 appearances last season. Meanwhile, Glasnow entered this season 4-16 with a 5.35 ERA in 67 career appearances (28 starts) for Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I'm Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed in 2019 (54-28) and with Tuesday's 124-98 home rout of the Blazers, are ONE win away from the team's first trip to the Western Conference finals since 2009 (Can you say 'Melo?). Star center Nikola Jokic continued his stellar series with 25 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5 and he is averaging 26.4 points, 14.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Portland. He's averaging 24.5-13.1-9.0 in his first-ever postseason with 10 double-doubles in 12 games (including four triple-doubles). Portland's dynamic guard duo of Lillard and McCollum came up woefully short in Game 5. Despite scoring 22 points, Lillard was just 9-of-21 shooting, including 2-of-9 from three-point range. As for McCollum, he had just a2 points, while making only 5 of 16 shots (31.3%). I've noted all season that Denver is arguably the league's deepest team and in back-to back impressive wins (116-112 at Portland in Game 4 and Game 5's home blowout), 13-year veteran power forward Paul Millsap has scored 21 and 24 points. He's been a difference-maker in the series, averaging 19.0 & 9.6, while recording three double-doubles. In contrast, Portland PF Al-Farouq Aminu managed just three points on 1-of-8 shooting in Game 5, after scoring a series-best 19 points in Game 4. As for center Enes Kanter, he is honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset and got dominated by Jokic, scoring just nine points on 2-for-9 shooting (he did have a team-high eight rebounds). We've got two must-wins," Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters after Game 5. "Somebody was going to have a must-win after (Tuesday), and it's us. So we've got two must-wins ahead of us."That's pretty simple and I'm far from counting Portland out, here. Can Denver really beat them THREE in a row? After all, the Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. They were just 1-4 SU on the road in the postseason, prior to their Game 4 win. As for Portland, the Blazers had not lost a home game since March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC, when its 12-game home winning streak was broken in Game 4. The Nuggets are headed back for a SECOND straight Game 7 at home. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates now head into their longest trip of the season, an 11-game trip which begins tonight in St Louis and continues through Arizona and San Diego. The Cardinals will be continuing a seven-game homestand that began with a 6-0 Monday win over Philly but that victory was followed by 13-1 and 3-0 losses (St Louis managed just three hits last night). Overall, St Louis has now lost SIX of seven, falling to 21-16 (behind both Chicago and Milwaukee in the NL Central). Pittsburgh checks in at 17-16 on the season. Joe Musgrove (1-3, 2.63 ERA) will get the ball for Pittsburgh and Michael Wacha (2-0, 5.17 ERA) for St Louis. Musgrove took the mound last Friday against Oakland with a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA. However, he was battered for seven runs (five earned) and six hits while lasting only 2.2 innings of a 14-1 loss. Wacha escaped with a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs in his last start but was charged with five runs (four earned) over five innings. He had won his previous two starts, on the road at Washington and Milwaukee. Wacha is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 16 career starts against the Pirates (Cards are 11-5). Here's the rub. The Cardinals won both earlier meetings this season against the Pirates, improving to 13-4 in the last 17 contests between the two NL Central rivals. Injuries limited Wacha to just 15 starts last year but he went 8-2. He's 2-0 this year in six starts. Let's NOT ignore that Wacha has suffered just TWO losses in his 21 starts since the beginning of 2018 (Cards are a solid 14-7 in all games). Meanwhile, Musgrove "came back to earth" in his last outing and I expect more outings like that, as the year progresses. His fabulous start to 2019 (remember, it was just FIVE games), was hardly in keeping with his performances heading into 2019. Musgrove opened the season 17-21 with a 4.33 ERA in 68 appearances, including 44 starts. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Mariners v. Yankees -157 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 6:35 ET. The Seattle Mariners opened the season 13-2 but entered last night's game at Yankees Stadium having lost 17 of their previous 23 contests. However, Seattle ended a seven-game losing streak at Yankee Stadium (more on that later) with a 10-1 rout of New York. Third baseman Ryon Healy led the 14-hit attack for Seattle, joining Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players in franchise history with a HR and three doubles in a game. Edwin Encarnacion also homered (his fourth in five games), as the Mariners won for just the SECOND time in 10 games overall! The Yankees captured the first two games of the series (7-3 and 5-4) and despite Wednesday's loss, New York is 15-6 after a 6-9 start. Mike Leake (2-3, 4.91 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle and J.A. Happ (1-3, 4.93 ERA) for the Yankees. but he he is winless since April 6. He did manage to snap a three-start losing streak with six solid innings at Cleveland last time out, giving up three runs on seven hits over six innings of a no-decision. However, Seattle lost that game 5-4 and Leake takes the mound with Seattle having lost his last FOUR starting assignments. The inability to keep the ball in the park continues to plague Leake, who has surrendered 11 HRs over his last six outings. Right-handed batters are hitting a robust .373 against Leake, who is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA in both career starts against the Yankees. Happ had a streak of three straight quality starts snapped in his last Start, losing 7-3 at home vs the Tins this past Saturday, allowing four runs and seven hits, over 5.2 innings. Happ had picked up his first win of 2019 in his previous start, blanking San Francisco on five hits over seven scoreless innings of a 6-4 win. Happ owns a 4-2 record and 5.06 ERA in seven starts versus Seattle (teams are 4-3). My play isn't so much on Happ, although I will note that we shouldn't count him out just yet in 2019, despite his poor start. After all, Happ is one of just NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five season. Meanwhile, Leake is pitching nowhere as well as he did last year, when Seattle went 20-11 in his starts (+$1,262). The Mariners do have a chance to earn a split of the four-game series with win tonight but note that the Yankees have not lost a season series to Seattle since 2003 (12-0-4). What's more, New York's home loss to Seattle on Wednesday still makes them 15-4 (79%) in their last 19 in the Bronx against the Mariners. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown (Part 3) is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Houston Rockets have the momentum in this series, having won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot this Western Conference semifinals series at 2-2. However, the Rockets will have to figure out a way to win a game in Oakland if they are to finally get the best of the Warriors in this series. The Houston/Golden St rivalry has turned into a best-of-three for the second straight year. Houston broke the 2-2 tie with a win in Game 5 at home in last year's Western finals but Golden State then swept the final two games to reach the NBA Finals, where the Warriors captured their second straight championship and third in four years (note: Chris Paul missed Games 6 & 7). Houston has made 66 three-pointers in the series, 26 more than the Warriors. James Harden has drained 18 three-pointers while averaging 35.8 points but two other Houston players have been key. Shooting guard Eric Gordon has made 16 three-pointers while averaging 23 points and power forward P.J. Tucker is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds over the past three games, while also harassing K.D. However, Kevin Durant is averaging 36 points in the series, with a high game of 46 and a low output of 29. However, Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson have not held up their end. Curry is 12-of-46 (26.1%) from three-point range in the series and Thompson is just 8-of-26 (30.8%). Joining the above-mentioned trio in the starting lineup have been Green and Iquodola. Green is averaging 15.8-11.2-8.2 and Iquodala 13.6 & 5.2. Iguodala has played 29 or more minutes in all four games of the series. He played more than 29 minutes just seven times during the regular season. He's also started all four games alongside Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Green, after never having joined that All-Star quartet in the starting lineup in any regular-season game during his Warriors career. Here's what happened down the stretch in the last two games at Houston. Houston was clinging to a one-point lead in Gamer 3 when Iguodala's three-pointer put Golden State up 112-110 with 45 seconds remaining. Harden made two free throws a few seconds after that to tie it and Durant missed a jump shot on the other end to give Houston a chance to win it in regulation. Chris Paul was in the lane when Klay Thompson forced a jump ball. Harden got the ball but didn't have time to get a shot off before the buzzer. Houston then won by five in OT (who will forget Curry's blown dunk shot?) In Game 4, the Rockets were up by nine before the Golden State scored the next seven points, capped by a three from Stephen Curry, to get within 110-108 with 19 seconds left. Harden made one of two free throws with 11.5 seconds left. Kevin Durant missed a three after that. But the Warriors got the rebound and Curry also missed a 3-point attempt before Golden State was forced to foul Chris Paul. "We got a couple of wide-open looks," Durant said. "They just didn't fall for us." Paul made one of two free throws with 2.9 seconds left to secure the four-point victory. However, Golden St knows it out-shot Houston 48.2 percent to 44.4 and out-rebounded the visitors 41.5 per game to 33.5 in the first two games of this series. We saw BOTH home teams (in similar 2-2 series) win in blowout fashion last night and after ca$hing two straight wins on the Rockets, I'm "all in" on the defending champs in this one. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game 7 Decider is on the SJ Sharks at 9:00 ET. The San Jose Sharks rebounded form a 3-1 deficit to oust the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round and opened this series with a 5-2 Game home win. The Colorado Avalanche have been swimming upstream throughout this best-of-7 series but after staving off elimination with a 4-3 home overtime victory on Monday, Colorado is one win away from advancing to the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2002. However, for that to happen, the Avs will have to break the pattern of the teams alternating wins and losses throughout the entire series. We saw last night just how hard it is to win a Game 7 on the road. Dallas' Ben Bishop mad e 52 saves but the Stars still lost 2-1 in double-OT at St Louis. I won't over-think this. Here's the bottom line. San Jose has won 18 of its last 20 at home (playoffs included) versus Colorado. The Sharks erased a three-goal, third-period deficit in Game 7 of their opening round series against Vegas but this Game 7 win will come with much less drama. Play the Sharks. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Angels v. Tigers -120 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Los Angeles Angels bounced back from a pair of losses to Houston in Mexico with Tuesday's series-opening 5-2 win last night in Detroit. The Tigers were held to five hits by four Angels pitchers on Tuesday in losing for the SEVENTH time in their last 10 games to fall to 15-17. The Angels, in contrast, have won SEVEN of 10 to reach 16-19. Wednesday's pitching matchup is a battle of lefties, as LA's Tyler Skaggs (3-2, 3.12 ERA) takes on Detroit's Matthew Boyd (3-2, 3.05 ERA). Skaggs is a former first-round selection and enters this contest 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and only seven hits allowed over 11 innings over his last two starts. Skaggs owns a 3.24 ETA in three career starts vs Detroit (he's 1-1 and the team 2-1). Boyd pitched seven innings while allowing just two runs in a 4-3 win over Kansas City on Friday, his SIXTH consecutive quality start. He struck out NINE for the second straight game and now has 57 strikeouts over 44.1 innings on the season, while holding opponents to a .205 average. A rash of injuries has made it difficult for Skaggs to capture the promise he displayed as a first-round pick of the Angels back in 2009. He missed the 2015 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and has been on the injured list FIVE times since the start of the 2017 season. In fact, his last two outings (see above), have come since he came back from an ankle ailment on April 26 (his latest trip to the DL). Meanwhile, Boyd ranks among the AL's top 10 in both strikeouts (fourth with 57) and WHIP (eighth at 0.99). It seems he has found the consistency that eluded him during a breakout 2018 season. Boyd allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of 31 starts in 2018 but still finished with a 4.39 ERA. The clincher" in this one comes is the fact that LA's 5-2 win last night came against Detroit lefty Norris. However, even with that win, the Angels check in at just 3-9 on the road vs lefties in 2019, averaging a pathetic 3.1 RPG. Boyd gets the "W!"
Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Rangers v. Pirates -119 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Pit Pirates at 12:35 ET. Pittsburgh swept a two-game series at Texas last week before hosting the Oakland Athletics over the weekend and taking two of three. The Pirates continued a stretch vs AL opponents last night, as the Rangers visited PNC Park. The Rangers came to Pittsburgh off back-to-back wins, in which they totaled 18 runs. Sunday's 10-2 triumph over Toronto got them back to .500 (16-16) for the season. The Pirates entered last night's contest 16-15 and both teams had Monday off. Gregory Polanco had a two-run HR and Melky Cabrera added a two-run double to pace Pittsburgh's attack Tuesday night, as the Pirates won 5-4. Pittsburgh has now followed up an eight-game losing streak against NL teams with a solid stretch entirely against the AL (more on that, later). The Rangers try to stay red hot in interleague play when they wrap up a two-game set with the visiting Rangers on Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday's pitching matchup features Shelby Miller (1-2, 7.99 ERA) going up against Nick Kingham (1-0, 6.39 ERA). Miller's 15-9 (3.06) 2013 season seems like a lifetime ago. Miller went 6-17 with Atlanta in 2015 and then 3-12 (6.15 ERA) with Arizona in 2016. The last two years, he made just nine appearances (eight starst) with Arizona. His "new start" with Texas in 2019 has NOT gone well. He's got just one win in six starts, with a 7.99 ERA, 2.03 WHIP and .295 BAA. Due to injuries to starters Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates will give Nick Kingham his first start of the year Wednesday. Kingham has made eight relief appearances in 2019, the last of which saw him give up four runs in just 2.1 innings in a blowout loss to Oakland on Friday. He was 5-7 with a 5.32 ERA in 15 starts as a rookie a year ago. The Pirates have little choice but to give Kingham another shot at starting with Taillon and Archer are on the injured list. That's why Steven Brault made his first start of the season Tuesday in the series opener. He gave up two runs and two hits in four innings and did not get a decision but the Pirates won 5-4. That's NOT news, as Pittsburgh is now 7-1 vs AL foes in 2019 and 22-6 (79%) against AL opponents since 2018. Need another reason to go against Texas? He is 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 career starts against the Pirates (3-8 or a 73% "go-against"), including a 1-4 record with a 6.92 ERA in five starts at PNC Park. Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-19 | Giants v. Rockies -115 | 14-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitch Perfect Play is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Colorado Rockies were on the verge of being swept by Arizona on Sunday but they erased a four-run deficit with five runs in the eighth inning for an 8-7 victory. The 16-19 Rockies continue their nine-game homestand tonight, as they welcome the 15-20 San Francisco Giants to Coors Field. San Francisco settled for a split of its four-game series in Cincinnati, falling 12-4 last night. Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.92 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco and Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 4.03 ERA) for Colorado. Bumgarner allowed just one run on four hits with eight strikeouts in six innings lst Wednesday at home vs the Dodgers, as San Francisco's 2-1 victory was Bumgarner's first win of 2019 (he's made seven starts with the Giants going 2-5 so far this season). It was a nice bounce-back, as he had allowed nine ERs on 17 hits over 11.2 innings (6.94 ERA) in his previous two starts, losses to the New York Yankees (7-3) and at Pittsburgh (4-1). Bumgarner is 14-8 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts versus Colorado (Giants are 19-12), including 5-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field. Senzatela received his first no-decision of the season when he allowed two runs, four hits and three walks in four innings of Colorado's 11-4 victory at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Senzatela makes just his fifth start of 2019 in this one (Rockies are 3-1) and only his second home start. He clearly does not have the stature of Bumgarner but Senzatela has NEVER lost to the Giants. He's 5-0 with a 3.16 ERA against San Francisco in six career starts (teams are 6-0). That's my 100% Pitch Perfect stat but it's hardy the ONLY reason I'm playing on the Rockies. Coors Field represents a personal 'house of horrors' for the Giants, who have lost six straight games in Denver and are 2-17 since 2019, winning one game in each of the last two seasons. That's an 89% "go-against" and a pretty sweep 'daily double' of reasons to play the Rockies over the Giants. Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-19 | Rangers v. Pirates -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Interleague ‘GAME OF MONTH’ is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. Pittsburgh swept a two-game series at Texas last week before hosting the Oakland Athletics over the weekend and taking two of three (the Pirates won Sunday with a four-run rally in the bottom of the 13th, after allowing two runs in the top of the inning!). The 16-15 Pirates get set to play their THIRD straight interleague set on Tuesday, when the Rangers arrive at PNC Park tonight for the first contest of a two-game series. The Rangers come to Pittsburgh off back-to-back wins, in which they totaled 18 runs. Sunday's 10-2 triumph over Toronto got them back to .500 (16-16) for the season. Tuesday's pitching matchup features Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.58 ERA) vs Steven Brault (0-1, 8.31 ERA). Sampson had little trouble with Pittsburgh last Tuesday, scattering five hits over 5.2 scoreless innings and striking out five before exiting and watching the bullpen serve up SIX runs. He will be making his fourth start in eight total 2019 appearances. Each of Sampson's previous three starts have come at home, so this marks his first road start. Pittsburgh has had to revamp its rotation with Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer hurt. So Brault will get the start Tuesday, with his four appearances here in 2019 coming out of the bullpen. Brault has spent time with the Pirates and in Triple-A Indianapolis this season and his last start was April 27, 2018. Obviously, I'm NOT backing Pittsburgh because of Brault. Rather, I'm taking Pittsburgh because the Pirates are 6-1 vs AL opponents to open 2019, after going 15-5 against AL clubs in 2018. That's 21-6, a 78% winning rate. Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees -143 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 6:35 ET. The Seattle Mariners have no problem hitting HRs and hit two more Monday. However, it was not good enough to beat the Yankees last night in the Bronx, as New York won 7-3. The Yanks have suffered through all sorts of well-documented injury woes but after opening 2019 at 6-9, they are the AL's hottest team, by reeling off wins in 14 of 19 to close within two games of Tampa Bay for the top spot in the AL East.As for Seattle, the Mariners opened the season 13-2 but enter tonight's contest just 19-18. Doing the math is pretty easy. Seattle is on a sad-sack 6-16 run. Marco Gonzales (5-1, 3.28 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Masahiro Tanaka (2-3, 3.92 ERA) for New York. Gonzales finished the 2018 season strong and picked up where he left off to open the 2019 season. In fact, after he was charged with six runs (three earned) on five hits and three walks over just 1.2 innings in last Wednesay's 11-0 loss at Wrigley, the outing represented his first loss in 12 starts dating back to last August. He had gone 6-0 with a 2.45 ERA during his undefeated stretch, never allowing more than three earned runs. Tanaka opened the season 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA over his first five starts of the season but then surrendered six runs (five earned) across 5.2 innings at the Los Angeles Angels on April 25 and three runs over four innings in Arizona on Wednesday, taking the loss in each contest. However, he's dominated the Mariners in his career, going 7-0 with a 2.02 ERA in eight starts versus them (Yanks are 7-1). Looking deeper, Tanaka's ERA against the Mariners is his lowest against any AL team and he has held Seattle hitters to a .199 BAA. He also owns a 64-5 KW ratio. Getting back to Gonzales, Tuesday will be the left-hander's second career start against the Yankees. He took the loss on June 19, 2018, in New York when he allowed six runs on eight hits (three home runs) in 6.1 innings. Wrapping up, the Mariners have been outscored 60-25 in dropping SEVEN of it their last eight, while the Yankees have gone 14-5 over their last 19. The Yankees set their sights on a sixth straight home win against the Mariners, after beating them Monday for the 13th time in the last 16 meetings (81% winning situation). The Yankees have not lost a season series to Seattle since 2003 (12-0-4). Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Mets -116 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 10:10 ET. The Mets suffered a 3-2 loss in Milwaukee on Sunday, completed a three-game sweep during which they scored a total of just six runs (New York entered the series with a road record). The Mets continue their six-game road trip tonight in San Diego, which avoided a home sweep at the hands of the Dodgers on Sunday when pinch-hitter Hunter Renfroe hit a walk-off grand slam for an 8-5 victory. Monday night's opener of a three-game series offers one of the best possible pitching matchups at the moment, as Jacob deGrom (2-3, 3.82 ERA) takes Chris Paddack (2-1, 1.91 ERA). DeGrom won last year's NL Cy Young award (despite a 10-9 record) but he quickly staked a claim on a second straight Cy Young by opening the 2109 season in dominating fashion. He struck out 24 batters over 13 scoreless innings to start 2-0 but he then stumbled with three straight rocky outings (14 ERs allowed over 13 innings), which was interrupted by a stint on the injured list due to an elbow issue.However, deGrom bounced back from that rough three-start stretch by scattering three hits over seven scoreless innings against Cincinnati on Wednesday but was forced to settle for a no-decision (Reds would win, 1-0). The Padres expected big things from Paddack, as in 37 career appearances in the minor leagues, he had a 1.82 ERA with 230 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 177.2 innings. So far, he's been as good as advertised (actually, even better) in his first six major league starts. Paddack has posted deGrom-like numbers, limiting opponents to a .126 batting average while registering 35 strikeouts against only nine walks in 33 innings (1.91 ERA and 0.70 WHIP). Paddack will be facing New York for the first time but deGrom has posted a 1.66 ERA in six career starts vs San Diego (Mets are 4-2). A pitching stand-off? Maybe so but deGrom is the vet and I expect him to "want this one" pretty badly. The clincher is the following. The Padres are a WOEFUL 1-8 (that's an 89% "go-against") vs right-handed starters in home night games in 2018, averaging a puny 2.8 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the Col Avalance at 10:08 ET. The San Jose Sharks rebounded form a 3-1 deficit to oust the Vegas Golden Knights in the first round and they are fully aware that they'll likely see a very focused and determined Colorado Avalanche team in tonight's Game 6, as the Avs have their proverbial 'backs to the wall" in this one. "We faced three elimination games against Vegas (in the first round). We didn't go away easily, and I don't anticipate (Colorado is) going to either," San Jose coach Peter DeBoer told reporters on the heels of Saturday's 2-1 victory in Game 5. The Sharks Tomas Hertl recorded his second multi-goal performance of the 2019 playoffs and third of his postseason career when he accounted for both goals in San Jose's Game 5 win. Logan Couture collected an assist on Hertl's power-play goal in the second period and his 13 points (NHL-best nine goals, four assists) are tied for the scoring lead with Boston's Brad Marchand and Avalanche forwards Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Much-maligned goalie Martin Jones has turned aside 21 of 22 shots on Saturday, improving his save percentage to .936 over the last eight games. Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon (5 goals / 8 assists) saw his point streak halted at eight games in Saturday's 2-1 loss. Colorado's top line registered 41 shots on goal in the previous four games of the series but was limited to five on Saturday, Rantanen (6 goals / 7 assists) has recorded multi-point performances in three of Colorado's four home games, including a two-assist effort in Thursday's 3-0 win in Game 4. Expect the Avs' No. 1 line to respond tonight, in a big way. Like Rantanen, Colorado goalie Philipp Grubauer has been a star at Pepsi Center during the 2019 playoffs. He owns a 3-1 record with a 1.69 goals-against average and .945 save percentage at home this postseason. San Jose is headed home after this one for a second straight Game 7 on its home ice. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -113 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Showdown Part 2 is on the Hou Rockets at 9:35 ET. The Houston Rockets outplayed the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 but barely escaped with the win. Is that an indication of a "lost chance" by the Warriors or should we anticipate that a slightly better effort from Golden St would give them a commanding 3-1 lead in the series? James Harden stepped up down the stretch to lead the Rockets to a 126-121 overtime victory in Game 3. He finished with 41 points and led the charge as Houston scored 52 points in the paint and dominated the interior. SG Eric Gordon scored a postseason career-high 30 points, Clint Capela added a double-double (13 & 11) plus Houston's players and coaches were effusive after Game 3 in their praise of power forward PJ Tucker, who finished with seven points, 12 rebounds, three assists and two blocks while doing the best job on the team of slowing Durant Kevin Durant scored 46 points to keep the Warriors in the game (he's averaging 39.4 points over the last seven games!) plus Draymon Green added his third triple double in the team's last four contests with 19 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. However, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled from the floor. Curry went 7-of-23 from the floor and endured the most embarrassing moment of Game 3 when he missed a dunk in the final stretch of overtime that would have cut the deficit to three points. Curry suffered a dislocated finger in Game 2 and is shooting 35.3 percent from the floor in the series and is 8-of-32 from beyond the arc. Houston has played "second-fiddle" to Golden St in recent years, most notably in last year's seven-game loss to the Warriors in the Western Conference finals. The Rockets won an NBA-best 67 games last season and took a 3-2 lead in that series, only to lose Game 6 and Game 7 (at home), without an injured Chris Paul in either contest. Both teams had stretches this season in which they looked vulnerable but Houston came into the postseason playing better basketball (Rockets went 20-4, while the Warriors were a modest 15-9 over the regular season's final eight weeks), The Rockets had chances to win each of the first two games in this series (in Oakland) but failed to make the key play. That 'turned' in Game 3 and I say (will bet) that the Rockets will get the better of the Warriors again in Game 4. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Phillies v. Cardinals -119 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cardinals at 8:05 ET. St. Louis owned 10 wins in an 11-game stretch, including three straight to start a seven-game road trip, when they rolled into Chicago's Wrigley Field on Thursday. However, the Cards 'limp' back home Monday, on a four-game losing streak. The Cubs completed a four-game sweep of the Cards with Sunday's 13-5 victory, as the Cards were outscored 23-10 in the series. Sunday's verdict led to the teams trading places atop the NL Central, with the 20-14 Cardinals now a half-game behind the 19-12. Cubs. The 19-14 Philadelphia Phillies reside in first place in the NL East, with a 1 1/2-game lead over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies completed a 6-3 homestand with a 7-1 win over the Washington Nationals on Sunday. Vince Velasquez (1-1, 2.73 ERA) takes the ball for the Phillies and will be opposed by the Cards' Miles Mikolas (3-2, 4.73 ERA). Velasquez hopes to bounce back from his first loss of the season. He threw 99 pitches in just 3.2 innings while falling 3-1 to the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday. He struck out seven while giving up three runs, six hits and three walks.His first four starts resulted in one win and three no-decisions but the Phillies won THREE of those four starts, as Velasquez allowed just five ERs over 21.2 innings (2.08 ERA). Mikolas resurrected his career in Japan after flaming out in his first stint in the majors and returned last season to tie for the NL lead in victories, while finishing fourth in ERA (he was 18-4, 2.83 ERA). He walked just 29 batters in his 32 starts and went 10-1 over the final three months of the season. Mikolas was also among MLB's top money-makers last season, as the Cards were 24-8 (+$1,1418) in all of his starts. He had an awful 2019 debut (March 28), allowing five ERs in five innings at Milwaukee but the Cards are 5-1 in his last six starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in ALL five of the wins. Mikolas has looked much more like the pitcher who went 18-4 for the Cardinals last season, with strong efforts in two of his past three starts. He beat the Washington Nationals 5-1 last Wednesday when he gave up a season-low one run and seven hits over six innings and two starts earlier, gave up two runs on four hits in a season-long eight innings while beating the New York Mets 10-2. In contrast, I'm not about to trust Valesquez, who has made 45 starts the last two seasons, going 11-19 with a 4.94 ERA. The Cards are back home where they are 12-4, averaging 5.69 RPG. Want more? The Cards are 10-2 (83%) at home vs right-handed starters in 2019, averaging 6.3 RPG. Enough said. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets -119 | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Col Blue Jackets at 7:08 ET. The Boston Bruins' top line did almost nothing in first three games of the Eastern Conference second-round series and the Bruins fell behind 2-1. However, the trio of David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron has erupted for 11 points over the last two games, as Boston has taken a 3-2 lead in the series with 5-2 and 4-3 wins.The Columbus Blue Jackets shocked all with a four-game sweep over Tampa Bay but now, after back-to-back losses, face elimination here in Game 6. Bergeron scored twice in Game 4 and Marchand upped the ante two nights later, scoring his first goal of the series and setting up two others. Boston's top line has accounted for 11 points (six goals, five assists) in the past two contests. However, let's not forget center David Krejci, who opened the scoring in the second period on Saturday, giving him his eighth point (three goals, five assists) in his last 10 games. Columbus has had plenty guys step up as well. Defenseman Seth Jones scored to ignite the Blue Jackets' three-goal surge in a 3:25 span of the third period, giving him points in six of nine postseason games. In-season trade acquisition Matt Duchene boosted his point total to 10 (five goals, five assists) after assisting on former Ottawa teammate Ryan Dzingel's score. Artemi Panarin set up defenseman Dean Kukan's game-tying goal with 6:02 remaining in the third period on Saturday to push his point total to a team-leading 11 (five goals, six assists). I love the way Columbus has spread its scoring around. In fact, Dzingel and Kukan's goals in Game 5, gave Columbus 16 different players who have scored this postseason! Blue Jackets head coach John Tortorella provided bulletin-board material with his press conference following Saturday's setback. "Things happen for a reason. And I truly believe that. We'll be back here for Game 7," said Tortorella. However, let me note that he was unsuccessful with a similar boast in last year's first-round series against eventual Stanley Cup champion Washington. That said, his team has won Columbus has won THREE of its four postseason games at Nationwide Arena this postseason. Seth Jones said he believes his team ratchets up the intensity when it plays at Nationwide Arena. "Just play smart hockey, play our style of hockey for a full 60 minutes, we should be fine," he said of Monday's contest. "We're excited about the energy in the building and the way the environment and our fans are going to react for us in Game 6." I'm with Tortorella and Jones. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks didn't panic after losing 112-90 at home to the Celtics in Game 1 of this series. The Bucks didn't need to make any drastic changes, they just needed to increase the aggressiveness and execution. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way, averaging 30.5 & 11.0 in Games 2 and 3, with Milwaukee shooting 47.4% as a team and scoring 123 points in both wins. Boston's star, PG Kyrie Irving, scored 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting in the Game 1 win but went a combined 12-of-40 (30.0%) from the floor in Games 2 and 3, including 3-of-13 from three-point range (23.1%). Antetokounmpo led the way in Game 3 with 32 points but it was the supporting cast that pushed Milwaukee over the top. Shooting guard Pat Connaughton scored 14 points and PG George Hill led the "Bench Mob" with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes. For Boston, after shooting 54.0% in its surprising Game 1 upset, the Celtics have made just 69 of 167 shots (41.3%) in Games 2 and 3. The Bucks' playoff win in Boston in Game 3 was rather noteworthy. It was the first playoff win in Boston for the Bucks since May 13, 1987. Yes, Milwaukee was just 0-5 in that span but FOUR of those losses came in an Eastern Conference first-round series last year, when the Celtics survived in a seven-game series (home team won all seven games). Getting back to Boston, its Game 3 home loss was just the Celtics' SECOND home playoff loss in 14 games the last two postseasons. If Boston head back to Milwaukee down 3-1, it would likely be "all she wrote." Expect Kyrie to shine and I'm backing Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | 116-112 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 7:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers battled each other in the longest postseason game since 1953 on Friday, with Portland coming out on top 140-137 in only the second four-overtime contest in postseason history. Now, some 41 hours after the end of that memorable contest, the teams will tip it off again in Game 4. "(The Blazers) have the same turnaround," Denver head coach Mike Malone said after Game 3. "You try to learn from the loss and get (the players) ready for battle. Both teams are exhausted. It's the same for them as it is for us. We will not use it as an excuse. We haven't used it all year long, and we won't use it now." Portland head coach Terry Stotts added this after his Blazers had finally put away the Nuggets to grab a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. "I have no idea what happened in the first half, the second half or the first three overtimes. I've never been involved in a game like that, regular season or playoffs." To set the record straight, Game 3 was a three-hour, 35-minute marathon that left players and coaches drained at the final buzzer. There were 24 lead changes and 18 ties. Denver center Nikola Jokic logged a game-high 65 minutes and finished with 33 points, 18 rebounds and 14 assists for his third triple-double of the postseason. He led the Nuggets in scoring, rebounding and assists in the regular season and is doing so again in his "breakout" postseason (24.8-12.9-9.1). Jamal Murray added 34 points in 55 minutes for Denver in the loss while Gary Harris (13 points, 50 minutes) and Paul Millsap (17 points, 13 rebounds, 49 minutes) were also pushed to the limit. Murray's averaging 20.5 PPG in the postseason plus four more players chip in between 9.1 and 13.1 PPG, while two others add 6.3 & 6.2 PPG. Denver is the NBA's deepest team. Star PG Damian Lillard added 28 points in 58 minutes in the win and leads Portland this postseason, averaging 30.8-4.4-6.0. However, it was his backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, who drained the big shots in the fourth quarter and in the third overtime to keep the game alive, before finishing with 41 points in 60 minutes. McCollum is averaging 24.9-5.6-4.12 in the playoffs. Center Enes Kanter is battling a separated shoulder but still managed 18 points and 15 rebounds in 56 minutes in Game 3 and is averaging a double-double this postseason (15.6 & 10.2). Let's NOT ignore Rodney Hood, who came off the bench to score seven of his career playoff-high 19 points in the fourth overtime. His three-pointer with 18.6 seconds remaining gave the Blazers a 138-136 lead they wouldn't relinquish. He's averaging 17.0 PPG in the series!! Denver is the deeper team, so does that favor them here off Friday's 'marathon?' I guess one could argue that but I'm NOT one of them. Look at the facts. The Nuggets finished the regular season (from Dec 1 through its end) going a pathetic 1-10 SU on the road vs Western Conference playoff teams. Here IN the playoffs, the Nuggets are 1-4 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Blazers last lost a home game way back on March 7, 129-121 in OT to OKC. Portland takes a 12-game home winning streak into this contest and with this pointspread, should cover "with room to spare!? Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | Twins v. Yankees -121 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NY Yankees at 4:05 ET. Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, who homered twice Friday, hit another one Saturday. It was his fifth blast in eight games since returning from the disabled list. Speaking of getting back on the field, 3rd baseman Miguel Andujar played his first game since injuring his shoulder back on March 31 and was 1-for-2 but also committed a pair of errors. The result was that New York lost for just fourth time in its last 14 games, 7-3. Mitch Garver had three hits (including a HR) plus Nelson Cruz went deep for the second straight game and C.J. Cron homered, a thse Minnesota Twins ended a nine-game road losing streak to the Yankees (playoffs included). Minnesota now has a chance to earn a series victory in the finale of a three-game set on Sunday afternoon, a contest that will now start three hours later (at 4:05 p.m.) due to heavy rain in the forecast. Michael Pineda (2-2, 6.21 ERA) gets the ball for Minnesota and Domingo Germán (5-1, 2.56 ERA) for New York.Pineda, who spent his previous four seasons with New York, opened the season with three straight solid outings (3.00 ERA), including victories over Philadelphia and Detroit (Twins were 3-0). However, the 6-7 pitcher has allowed 15 ERs on 24 hits over 14 innings in the past three outings (2-0 with a 9.64 ERA / team is 0-3). Pineda's lone start against New York came as a rookie back in 2011. German has a decision in each of his six appearances of 2019 (five starts / one relief) and enters this contest having worked at least six innings in his last four outings. Along with his excellent 2.56 ERA, he owns a 32-9 KW ratio, 0.85 WHIP and opponents are batting just .157 against him. Will the Twins earn their first series win at Yankee Stadium since May 30-June 1, 2014? You can't get me on Minnesota in this one, as the Yanks are 51-15 (77%) against the Twins in the Bronx (including the postseason) since 2002! Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 3:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers dropped the first game of their Eastern Conference opening round series at home vs the Brooklyn Nets but rebounded to win and cover the next four games. Could it be deja vu all over again for Philly in their semifinal series against the Toronto Raptors? The 76ers were manhandled 108-95 by the Raptors in Game 1 but then won Game 2 by the score of 94-89, which broke a 14-game losing streak for the 76ers in Toronto. Was that win a breakthrough? It sure looked like that in Game 3, as the 76ers routed the Raptors, 116-95. All five Philly starters scored in double digits but Embiid (33 & 10) and Butler (22-9-9) were the key performers. Leonard's been outstanding for Toronto this postseason, averaging 31.5 PPG on shooting 57.9%, including averaging 37.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting in this series. All-Star PG Kyle Lowry is shooting 36.1 percent from the floor in the series and slumped to seven points on 2-of-10 from the floor in Thursday's loss. Lowry's had a history of very erratic play in the postseason. Maybe a bigger problem for Toronto is that the 6-9 Pascal Siakam, who had a breakout regular season and is averaging 23.3 points and 5.7 rebounds on 36.3 minutes through the first three games. He's listed as doubtful due to a right calf contusion. Embiid has been hampered by a sore left knee throughout the postseason but had a playoff career-high 33 points to go along with 10 rebounds and five blocked shots in only 28 minutes in Game 3. He became the first player since Boston's Kevin McHale to post at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in less than 30 minutes in a playoff game. Butler was the star in Philly's Game 2 win and was excellent again in Game 3 (see above). Not only did all five Philly starters reach double digits in Game 3 but all five are averaging double figures during Philly's eight postseason games. I realize Philly looks to be in a great position in teh series, especially with Siakam listed as doubtful but don't be surprised to see him "give it a go." However, I'm still not completely sold on Philly plus one never knows when Embiid's sore left knee will act up. As for Toronto, Leonard is capable of carrying his team plus as noted above, Lowry has been know to follow dreadful efforts in the playoffs with excellent ones. Also, Ibaka (15.0 & 8.1 in the regular season) is overdue for a big game, as is veteran center Gasol, who has been dominated by Embiid (Gasol is 6-of-20 from the floor in the series). The Raptors had held opponents under 100 points in six straight playoff games (winning the first five), allowing the 76ers to shoot 51.2 percent from the floor in Game 3, while scoring 116 points. "I think we had six straight games of tremendous effort and tremendous defense, right?" Toronto head coach Nick Nurse asked reporters. "(Thursday) night we didn't have that, so again I think that the six in a row is what you're trying to get back to, with that kind of effort and whatever." Toronto has lost back-to-back games but has lost THREE straight just ONCE all season, way back from Nov 12-16. I'm "all over" the Raptors in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | A's v. Pirates +108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 108 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Pit Pirates at 1:35 ET. The Oakland Athletics opened their nine-game road trip with SIX straight losses. Oakland dropped three straight at Toronto to begin the trip, before falling in three in a row at Boston and watched the pitching staff surrender an average of 6.2 RPG in the six contests The A's limped into Pittsburgh for the final three games of the trip on Friday and the Pirates knew a little about how they felt. Pittsburgh rode a red-hot pitching staff to a 12-6 start to the 2019 season but then suffered an eight-game losing streak from April 21 through April 28. However, the Pirates opened this series off back-to-back wins Tuesday and Wednesday at Texas (Pittsburgh was also well-rested, with off days Monday and Thursday). Pittsburgh would send Joe Musgrove to the mound in the series opener and he had been OUTSTANDING, posting a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA. What's more was that he was a righty and Oakland checked in a 'money-burning' 6-15 vs right-handed starters in 2019, including 2-9 on the road. Getting back to Pittsburgh, the Pirates were 4-0 vs AL teams in 2019, following the team's 15-5 record in IL games in 2019. So what happened? Oakland ended its longest losing streak of the season (also snapped a seven-game road slide) with a season-high 16-hit attack in Friday's 14-1 win. Meanwhile, the Pirates managed only a run-scoring groundout by Josh Bell in the first inning and stranded 10 runners. I had the Pirates on Friday but was undeterred. I came right back with them Saturday against Oakland, as my Game of the Week. Josh Bell, the lone bright spot in an otherwise lackluster Pittsburgh Pirates offensive attack, hit two HRs and drove in three runs in Saturday's 6-4 victory. Oakland followed up its 14-1 victory in the series opener with three runs in the first inning on Saturday, but faded in the final eight innings to fall to 1-7 on its current nine-game road trip. The Athletics will turn to Frankie Montas (4-2, 2.97 ERA) in the series finale, while the Pirates hand the ball to Jordan Lyles (2-1, 2.42 ERA). Montas gave up a season-high seven runs in a season-low 4.1 innings at Boston (9-4 Red Sox win) on Monday but only ONE of the runs was earned. Montas has fared MUCH better as a starter, going 9-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 19 career starts, compared to 1-1 with a 5.66 mark in 30 games out of the bullpen. As for Pittsburgh's Lyles, he opened the season 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA through his first three starts (Pittsburgh was 3-0) but he's had back-to-back shaky outings. He allowed four ERs in five innings of an 11-2 home loss to Arizona, before walking a season-high four in four innings (allowed three hits and two ERs) of a no-decision at Texas this past Tuesday (Pittsburgh won, 6-4). Here's the bottom line. The Pirates have won FOUR of Lyles' five starts in 2019 (plus-$350) plus Pittsburgh win on Saturday ups the team's IL record to 5-1 in 2019 and 20-6 since the start of 2018. Meanwhile, there is "no getting way" from these numbers for the A's. Oakland wraps its nine-game road trip here having gone 1-7 so far and on the season, is just 7-16 vs right-handed starters, including 3-10 on the road. Why NOT Pittsburgh again? ESPECIALLY at this price! Good luck...Larry |
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05-05-19 | Royals v. Tigers -116 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Det Tigers at 1:10 ET. The Kansas City Royals limped into Detroit on Friday to open a three-games series with the Tigers. KC came to town with an 11-21 record, including owning the worst road record in the major leagues at 3-10. The Royals lost 4-3 on Friday night but posted season highs in runs and hits (19) in Saturday's 15-3 victory (where did that come from?). Kansas City now has a chance to post back-to-back road wins for just the second time in 2019 and capture its first series win away from home on the year, as well. Could Detroit play the perfect foil? After all, the Tigers have dropped SIX of eight, allowing at least seven runs in five of those losses. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature KC's Brad Keller (2-3, 4.07 ERA) going up against Detroit's Spencer Turnbull (2-2, 2.53 ERA). Keller will be making his second start since returning from a five-game suspension for throwing at the White Sox's Tim Anderson. Keller returned from that suspension to make his second straight start against Tampa Bay and suffered his second straight loss against the Rays this past Monday. He gave up five runs over five innings of an 8-5 loss (he also allowed five ERs over 6.1 innings in losing to the Rays 6-3 on April 22). He opened the season with four consecutive quality starts, but one of them was a 3-1 loss at Detroit when he surrendered three runs on five hits over six innings on April 7. Turnbull put together his third straight strong start last time out at Philadelphia, matching his season high with six innings and earning his second victory in a row by giving up one run on three hits, as the Tigers won 3-1 Tuesday over the Phillies. Turnbull enters this game having allowed just two runs (one earned) on eight hits over 17 innings in his last three starts (0.53 ERA). Turnbull faced Kansas City in his second start of the season on April 4, striking out 10 batters and allowing three runs in six innings of a 5-4 Detroit win. Keller started the season 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA over his first five starts but has allowed 10 ERs and 13 hits over his last two starts, covering 11.1 innings (7.94 ERA). Meanwhile, Turnbull has not allowed more than three ERs in ANY of his six 2019 starts and as noted above, comes in with an 0.53 ERA over his last three. As I mentioned at the top, where did KC's 15-run, 19-hit effort come from on Saturday? KC lands 'back on earth' with a THUD on Sunday! Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | Dodgers -123 v. Padres | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Division Dominator (NL West) is on the LA Dodgers at 8:40 ET. Kenley Jansen struck out the side for his 11th save, while Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor each homered in Friday’s 4-3 win over San Diego. The Dodgers improved to 10-4 against NL West opponents in 2019 and leads the league in runs scored (179). However, the Padres are showing why they could be a contender in the National League West for years to come, with the addition Manny Machado’s, the youngest starting rotation in the majors plus they feature rookie of the year candidate Fernando Tatis Jr. (currently out with a strained left hamstring). Rich Hill (0-0, 1.50 ERA) will get the nod for LA and Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.94 ERA) for San Diego. Hill is finally recovered from a sprained right knee and made his season debut Sunday at home against Pittsburgh. He allowed five runs but only ONE earned over six innings, as the Dodgers won, 7-6. Hill may be just 6-4 n 11 careers starts vs San Diego (teams are 6-5) but owns a 2.89 ERA in those 11 starts! Lucchesi was staked to an early lead against Washington last Sunday but received a no-decision after giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits over four innings, as teh Padres fell 7-6 in 11 innings. So far, he has posted 34-10 KW ratio over six 2019 starts covering 31 innings, which is good news. What is not so good news is that Lucchesi faced the Dodgers three times as a rookie last season, going 0-3 with 8.53 ERA while failing to pitch past the fifth inning in ALL three outings. Hill over Lucchesi is a fairly easy choice, especially when one considers that Los Angeles was14-5 against San Diego last year and has won the season series EIGHT straight times. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 102 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Showdown is on the Hou Rockets at 8:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors brushed aside the chatter about officiating after Game 1 (a 104 victory) and earned a 115-109 win in Game 2 on Tuesday. The teams have been off for three days when they resume their bitter rivalry tonight in Houston, as the Warriors look to take a commanding 3-0 advantage in Saturday's Game 3. The Rockets had their chances in each of teh first two games but it was the Warriors who made the big (key) plays. K.D. is averaging 34.2 PPG in the postseason but it's impossible to ignore the recent play of Green and Iquodala. With Cousins out, Kerr has returned to the starting lineup which won the team it first title, beating the Cavs in the 2015 NBA Finals. Iquodala, who won the 2015 Finals MVP, has been added to the starting lineup and he's averaged 15.0-4.3-3.3 the last three games, after averaging just 5.7 PPG during the regular season. Green has long been considered one of the NBA best overall players but he had a so-so season. However, he's averaged 15.0-11.7-8.7 the last three games. His defense, along with Iqoudala's, KD's and Thompson's, make the Warriors one helluva team. However, the Rockets have given the Warriors first the last couple years, but in the end, always seem to fall short. Will it change here in 2019? James Harden had to leave Game 2 briefly after getting scratched in both eyes. "He got raked pretty good in the eyes, but that's him," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "I mean, I didn't have a doubt that he was coming back unless it was something catastrophic. I'm sure he would have loved to play better. Under the circumstances, I thought he played great." Harden averaged 36.1-6.6-7.5 in the regular season but he's shooting just 37.7% in the postseason (down from 44.2%), while averaging 29.0 PPG. This is Houston's game to win.The Rockets have had off since Tuesday and falling behind 0-3 leaves them in an impossible position. As good as Golden St is, Houston has won the last two season series against them and led 3-2 in the Western Conference finals last year, before Paul got hurt and couldn't play in Games 6 & 7 (Golden St won both). All hands are on deck for this one and if not now for Houston, when? Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | Mets v. Brewers -111 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers have been without the services of the reigning National League MVP Christian Yelich's for nearly a week but Lorenzo Cain hit his fifth career leadoff HR and Ryan Braun had a tie-breaking two-run shot in the fifth inning, sending the Brewers to a 3-1 victory on Friday. Milwaukee pulled into a tie with Seattle for the league lead with 61 homers and Milwaukee has recorded at least one HR in all 19 of its home games. That sets a club record and leaves the Brewers two shy of matching the 2000 Toronto Blue Jays for the longest such run to begin a season in major-league history. Yelich could return to the lineup Saturday night. He exited last Sunday's game with a sore lower back and has sat out the last five games. However, he told reporters Friday he felt good after participating in a series of pre-game baseball activities The 16-16 Mets have hovered around that break-even mark lately, mostly due to an offense that has been in a slump for the better part of two-plus weeks. New York has scored just two runs in its last three contests and is averaging 3.3 over its last 16 games. That's a far cry from the 6.1 average it produced in its first 16 contests, when the Mets sat 10-6. The Mets entered Friday with the second-worst ERA in the NL (4.90), but the rotation has allowed just eight runs over 32.2 innings over its last five games. That's good news but the etam's slumping offense is NOT! Zack Wheeler (2-2, 5.05 ERA) takes the mound for New York and Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 3.60 ERA) for Milwaukee. Wheeler comes off a Monday start at home vs the Reds in which he allowed four runs on seven hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision (Reds won 5-4). He was unable to build off a dominant 11-strikeout effort in his previous start. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers (Mets are 2-2). Gonzalez is a two-time All-Star who began the year in the New York Yankees organization, before opting out of his minor-league contract. He returned to the Brewers last week, after going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts (Brewers were a perfect 5-0) with them down the stretch last year. He made his season debut against the Mets last Sunday, settling for a no-decision while allowing two runs on six hits and a walk in five innings (Brewers lost 5-2). With or without Yelich, I'm playing on the Brewers in this one. The Brewers have taken three of the four meetings this season against the Mets and are now 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs them. As for Gonzalez, he's 15-6 with a 2.85 ERA in 27 career starts against the Mets (teams are 17-10). He's faced and defeated the Mets more than any opponent. Nothing changes here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | A's v. Pirates -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics opened their nine-game road trip with SIX straight losses. Oakland dropped three straight at Toronto to begin the trip, before falling in three in a row at Boston and watched the pitching staff surrender an average of 6.2 RPG in the six contests The A's limped into Pittsburgh for the final three games of the trip on Friday and the Pirates knew a little about how they felt. Pittsburgh rode a red-hot pitching staff to a 12-6 start to the 2019 season but then suffered an eight-game losing streak from April 21 through April 28. However, the Pirates opened this series off back-to-back wins Tuesday and Wednesday at Texas (Pittsburgh was also well-rested, with off days Monday and Thursday). Pittsburgh would send Joe Musgrove to the mound in the series opener and he had been OUTSTANDING, posting a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA. What's more was that he was a righty and Oakland checked in a 'money-burning' 6-15 vs right-handed starters in 2019, including 2-9 on the road. Getting back to Pittsburgh, the Pirates were 4-0 vs AL teams in 2019, following the team's 15-5 record in IL games in 201. So what happened? Oakland ended its longest losing streak of the season (also snapped a seven-game road slide) with a season-high 16-hit attack in Friday's 14-1 win. Meanwhile, the Pirates managed only a run-scoring groundout by Josh Bell in the first inning and stranded 10 runners. Saturday's pitching matchup will be Oakland's Chris Bassitt (1-0, 0.75 ERA) and Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams (1-1, 3.38 ERA). Bassitt came off the injured list on April 22 and pitched five scoreless innings in a win 6-1 home win against Texas, then worked seven solid innings at Toronto on Sunday, striking out nine while allowing just one run on three hits in a no-decision (A's lost 5-4 in 11 innings). Williams had given up three ERs or fewer in each of his first five starts of 2019, before he was tagged for five in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers this past Sunday. Still, Williams has pitched at least six innings in all six of his 2019 starts, after doing so in seven of his final nine starts in 2018. Williams was 8-3 with a 1.68 ERA in 16 outings since last year's All-Star break,before his last two starts, a 2-1 loss to Arizona on April 23 and the above-mentioned poor outing vs the Dodgers. However, let me note that his has allowed more than three runs only TWICE in his 18 starts since last year's All Star break. What's more, he owns a superb 1.93 ERA in his nine career interleague starts. Yes, Pittsburgh got destroyed Friday but the Pirates are still 19-6 their last 25 IL games and while Oakland EXPLODED' for 14 runs last night, they are still just 7-15 vs right-handed starters in 2019, including 3-9 on the road. I'm "all in" on Pittsburgh in this bounce-back situation. Good luck...Larry |
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05-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees -119 | 7-3 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitch Perfect Play is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET. New York has been decimated by injuries but third baseman Miguel Andujar is expected to return to the lineup Saturday for the first time since injuring his right shoulder in the third game of the season. Gary Sanchez hits two HRs (4 HRs & 9 RBI in a five-game hitting streak) Friday night, as the Yankees beat the Twins 6-3. Despite the team's injury woes, New York has now won 10 of 13 overall. Minnesota arrived at Yankee Stadium owning the AL's best record but bumbled made a pair of errors and added a wild pitch that led to three unearned runs while falling behind 4-0 by the fourth inning.. The middle contest of the three-game series goes Saturday afternoon, as Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.34 ERA) will take on lefty J.A. Happ (1-2, 4.68 ERA). Odorizz starred in his season debut back on March 30 (11 Ks and one run allowed in six innings) but then allowed seven ERs over just 5.1 innings of his next two starts. However, he's back in a groove and takes a three-start winning streak into Saturday's game (1.47 ERA). Happ has also turned things around after struggling out of the gate. He posted his third consecutive quality start the last time out, earning his first victory with seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball at San Francisco in a 6-4 New York victory. Happ getting things turned around shouldn't be a surprise, as he is one of just NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five seasons! That said, let's get to the 'meat' of this selection. The Yanks are playing well and face Ordorizi, who owns a 2-4 record and 'ugly' 6.20 ERA at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees were 14-7 (5.6 RPG) in home day games vs righties in 2018 and are 4-2 (5.8) in that spot so far in 2019. As for the Twins, last night's defeat was their EIGHTH consecutive loss at Yankee Stadium, as Minnesota has now lost 51 of 65 meetings in the Bronx (including the postseason) since 2002. If that's NOT enough, the lefty Happ will face a Minnesota team that has faced just ONE lefty all season (a road loss at night), after going 0-7 vs left-handed starters in road day games in 2018! Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-19 | A's v. Pirates +100 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Pit Pirates at 7:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics have opened their nine-game road trip with SIX straight losses. Oakland dropped three straight at Toronto to begin the trip, before falling in three in a row at Boston and watched the pitching staff surrender an average of 6.2 RPG in the six contests The A's limp into Pittsburgh for the final three games of the trip this weekend and the Pirates know a little about how they feel. Pittsburgh rode a red-hot pitching staff to a 12-6 start to the 2019 season but then suffered an eight-game losing streak from April 21 through April 28. However, the Pirates open this series off back-to-back wins Tuesday and Wednesday at Texas (Pittsburgh is also well-rested, with off days Monday and Thursday). Brett Anderson (3-2, 4.35 ERA) takes the mound tonight for Oakland and will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove (1-2, 1.54 ERA). Anderson got off to a solid start in 2019, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his first five outings. He won the first three of those starts but then the A's lost his next two (a loss and no-decision for Anderson). However, the vet was knocked around for six runs on 10 hits and a pair of walks over 4.1 innings at Toronto last Saturday in his last start, a 7-1 loss. Could that poor effort been affected by the fact that he had sprained his left ankle coming off the mound to field a grounder in his previous outing? Musgrove is winless in his last four outings but he posted a quality start in each one. Musgrove has been OUTSTANDING all season, posting a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA. Pittsburgh "stopped the bleeding" with two wins in Texas and so what else is new? The Pirates are 4-0 vs AL teams in 2019, following the team's 15-5 record in IL games in 2018. Doing the math, that's 19-5, a 78% winning mark. Want more? The A's visit Pittsburgh and draw righty Joe Musgrove (re-visit his numbers above). Oakland checks in a 'money-burning' 6-15 vs right-handed starters in 2019, including 2-9 on the road, an 82% "go-against" winning spot. "Case closed," as Archie Bunker liked to say! Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-19 | Mariners v. Indians -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners begin a 10-game road trip by visiting the Cleveland Indians on Friday. Seattle comes in having dropped its last four games by a combined score of 46-7, as its pitching staff was pounded by the Rangers and Cubs, while the team' bats were mostly "silent.' The Indians know all too well about 'quiet' bats, as Cleveland's team batting average dropped to an American League-worst .215 after a 4-2 loss at Miami on Wednesday. Adding insult to injury, the Indians lost ace Corey Kluber, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, when he was hit by a 102-mph line drive from Miami's Brian Anderson in the sixth inning of Wednesday's loss. Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 4.54 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle, while Shane Bieber (2-1, 3.68 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland. Kikuchi pitched just one inning against Texas last Friday (in relief), as Seattle watches his workload in his first major league season. He last start (April 20) was his worst of the season. He allowed four runs on 10 hits over five innings at the Los Angeles Angels, even though he managed to escape with his first win. Kikuchi allowed three ERs in his first two starts over 10.2 innings (2.53 ERA) but over his last four, has allowed 14 ERs in 22 innings (5.73 ERA). Shane Bieber turned heads in his rookie season (2018), going 11-5 in 20 appearances, including 19 starts (Cleveland was 13-6). He's made five starts in 2019 and has pitched well in four of them. He allowed seven runs (five earned) in an 11-5 loss to the Braves on April 21 (lasted just 2.1 innings) but in his other four, has gone at least six innings, posting a 2.16 ERA. Here's the rub. Seattle's 13-2 start to the season is now a distant memory, as the Mariners have lost 13 of their last 18 games. Seattle batted .295 as team and averaged 7.8 runs in opening 13-2 but is batting .202 with 4.0 RPG in going 5-13. That hardly bodes well with this 10-game road trip on tap, featuring visits to Cleveland, the New York Yankees and Boston, all playoff teams in 2018. What's more, I really like Bieber over Kikuchi. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-19 | Braves -150 v. Marlins | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My 7* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves surprised many (all?) by winning the NL East by eight games in 2018, posting a 90-72 record (Braves had averaged 92.7 losses per season the previous three! ). Atlanta opened the 2019 season by getting swept in Philadelphia but promptly won NINE of 12. However, Thursday’s 11-2 loss was Atlanta's 10th in its last 16, since that early April stretch.a HUGE issue in the team's last 10 games has been that, the team that led the National League in hitting with runners in scoring position a season ago, is batting .149 in those situations in that stretch. The Braves open a 10-game road trip tonight in Miami. The Marlins saw their four-game losing streak end with Wednesday’s 4-2 home victory over Cleveland but Miami checks in at 9-21, owners of MLB's worst record. Kevin Gausman (1-2, 4.80 ERA) steps to the mound for Atlanta and will be opposed by Jose Urena (1-4, 5.08 ERA). Gausman was just 5-8 (4.43 ERA) in 21 starts for Baltimore last season (Orioles were 6-15, -$967 in his 21 starts) but after getting 'rescued' by the Braves, went 5-3 (2.87 ERA) in 10 starts (Atlanta went 7-3). Gausman has struggled in his last two starts, giving up five ERs in back-to-back appearances with 13 total hits allowed in 10.1 innings (8.71 ERA). Meanwhile, Urena has pitched better lately, after a rough start to the season. He's given up just five ERs in 20 innings over his last three starts (2.25 ERA), after surrendering 14 ERs in his opening three outings over 13.2 innings (9.22 ERA). However, Gausman expects similar results from his season debut against the Marlins on April 5, a game in which he allowed two hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in seven shutout innings of 4-0 win. That gives him a 3-1 lifetime mark with a 1.52 ERA against the Marlins. In stark contrast, Urena is 2-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 14 career games (11 starts) against the Braves. He's 2-5 in those 11 starts (5.54 ERA), with Miami going 2-9! These division rivals are meeting for the first time in 2019, after Atlanta won 14 of 19 games last season. I noted above that Miami checks in with MLB's worst record and add here that the Marlins rank last in scoring (2.87 RPG), 29th in OPS (.622) and 25th in team BA (.228). Gausman and Atlanta 'get healthy' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-19 | Islanders +120 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Islanders at 7:08 ET. The New York Islanders shocked Pittsburgh by completing a four-game sweep and advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs for just the second time in 26 years. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes (in the postseason for the first time since 2009) advanced to the conference semifinals by rebounding from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 to eliminate the defending champions Caps, with a 4-3 double-OT win at Washington in Game 7. The Islanders allowed the fewest goals in the league (196) and then saw Robin Lehner post a 1.47 GAA and a .956 save percentage in sweeping the Pens. Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek won 11 of his final 13 games in the regular season and then posted a 2.54 goals-against average against Washington. A competitive series was expected but the Carolina Hurricanes, who were teetering on the brink of elimination under two weeks ago against the Caps, head into this Game 4 on a FIVE-game winning streak (Games 6 & 7 vs Washington plus Games 1-3 vs the NYI), looking to sweep their way into the Eastern Conference finals. "We're up 3-0, the last is the hardest, it always is," Carolina captain Justin Williams said after he scored the go-ahead goal midway into the third period of Wednesday's 5-2 win over New York. As for teh Islanders, New York will try to become just the fifth team in NHL history to rally and win a series after losing the first three games. "There's only one way to look at it. You have to earn the right to keep playing," Islanders captain Anders Lee said. "Game 4 is (Friday). We have to win it. That's all it is. We have to keep ourselves alive." The Islanders never led in Game 3 but they were competitive from the get-go. The 5-2 final was deceiving, because the final two goals were empty-net tallies. Carolina's Curtis McElhinney became the oldest goalie to start his first Stanley Cup playoff game in place of Petr Mrazek, and more than held up his end of the bargain in Game 3 by turning aside 28 shots. Mrazek is nursing a lower-body injury and coach Rod Brind'Amour said on Thursday. "We can't rush a goalie back. ... When he's 100 percent, then we'll get him back in there." Whether it's Mrazek or McElhinney, I'm on the Islanders to avoid the sweep. Islanders head coach Barry Trotz has directed teams out of playoff deficits in the past and while an 0-3 hole may be asking too much, avoiding a sweep is NOT. After all, the last time a team swept a seven-game first-round series and then got swept in the second round was back in 1993 (Buffalo Sabres). New York scored 14 goals in sweeping the Pens but enters this game with just THREE goals on 88 shots in losing the first three of the series. That HAS to change, right? The bet says "NO sweep!" Good luck...Larry |
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05-03-19 | Twins v. Yankees -145 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The Central Division-leading Minnesota Twins own the best record in the American League (19-10), after completing a 6-1 homestand. The Twins just took three of four from the Astros, improving to 10-3 over their last 13 games. “If you want to be the best, you've got to beat the best," second baseman Jonathan Schoop said. "We believe we're the best team in the league, so we're going to go out there and have fun and compete."The Twins visit Yankee Stadium to open a three-games series Friday night. New York was in the midst of its best stretch of the season, winning nine of 10, but closed out a nine-game road trip by getting swept in Arizona by the D'backs in a two-game IL series. The 17-13 Yankees (2 1/2 games back of the Rays in the AL East) get set for a stretch of 30 games in 31 days. Kyle Gibson (2-0, 4.88 ERA) will step to the mound for Minnesota and James Paxton (3-2, 3.38 ERA) for New York.Gibson stumbled badly out of the gate in 2019, allowing 13 runs (12 earned) over 14.2 innings (7.36 ERA) but managed to escape with a no-decision each time (Twins were 2-1). He earned his first win with six innings of two-run ball against Baltimore on April 21 and was even better in a rematch seven days later, allowing one run and three hits in seven innings. Paxton just missed a third straight quality start in his last outing, pitching 5.2 innings and giving up three runs on five hits while striking out eight in a 7-3 win at San Francisco on April 26. He was overpowering in his previous two turns, striking out 12 over six scoreless innings in a no-decision versus Kansas City and dominating Boston with 12 strikeouts over eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball of an 8-0 win. Now to why I'm calling this a "pitching mismatch." Paxton comes in with a 1.37 ERA in his last three outings (Yanks are 3-0) and he's 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA in five starts vs the Twins. Yes, Gibson's won his last two starts but BOTH have come over 11-21 Baltimore. In his other three starts this season, he owns 7.36 ERA. Then there is the fact that he's an abysmal 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA in eight career starts against the Yanks (Twins are 1-7). That fits perfectly with the Yankees' domination of the Twins here in the Bronx since 2002. The Yanks have won 50 of 64 meetings (playoffs included) vs the Twins in that span. Enough said. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche -117 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Col Avalanche at 10:08 ET. The San Jose Sharks fell behind the Vegas Golden Knights three games-to-one but were able to extend that series to a Game 7, which they won 5-4 in OT. The Sharks needed to score FOUR goals in the third period of that contest to get into OT. San Jose now has a chance to take its own 3-1 lead in a series, when the Sharks play tonight in Denver against the Avalanche. San Jose won the series opener by twice erasing deficits before running away with a 5-2 win, lost Game 2 at home 4-3 but then in Game 3 at Pepsi Center, blew a 2-0 lead before Logan Couture scored two third-period goals for a 4-2 win. Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar showed plenty of emotion after his team's loss on Tuesday. "To me, we didn't consistently work for the puck, didn't talk (for) the puck and in turn our execution was poor," Bednar said after the game. "We made some bonehead decisions with the puck, too, at times. The bulk of their scoring chances come off turnover plays and mismanaging the puck and just poor execution." Logan Couture's two third-period goals gave him a hat trick and an NHL-best nine postseason goals. Couture had 30 points (10 goals, 20 assists) during San Jose's run to the Stanley Cup in 2016 and his 43 postseason goals are one more than Sidney Crosby for the second-best total (Alex Ovechkin, 50) since he entered the league in 2010. Goalie Martin Jones allowed nine goals in the team's Game 2 and 3 losses to Vegas and then after allowing two goals on seven shots in Game 4, was benched. However, he returned in goal for Game 5 and has now allowed 14 goals in his last six starts, going 5-1 in that stretch! Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon is giving Logan Couture a run for his money, as his second period goal in Game 3 extended his point streak to seven games (five goals, seven assists. The Avs surely don't want to fall behind 3-1, so figure to view this contest as almost a "must-win!' Home is where the heart is and while Colorado did stumble in Game 3, the Avs had won EIGHT in a row at home and owned a 13-3-1 mark in a 17-game stretch at the Pepsi Center, prior to Tuesday's loss. Expect Colorado to send this series back to San Jose tied at two-all. Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-19 | Raptors -117 v. 76ers | Top | 95-116 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors lost their Game 1 against the Orlando Magic in the first round, 104-101. No one could have been too surprised, as the Raptors fell to 2-14 in playoff openers. However, Toronto rebounded to sweep the next four games against the Magic, covering all four. Toronto fans were on "high alert" for Game 1 of this second round series with the 76ers, who like the Raptors, lost Game 1 of their first round series against the Nets but then won and covered the next four. So what happened in Game 1 vs Philly? Kawhi Leonard scored a playoff career-high 45 points, as the Raptors won convincingly, 108-95. However, Toronto was NOT able to carry its positive mojo into Game 2, as the 76ers 'stole away' homecourt advantage in the series with a 94-89 win. Philly's victory snapped a 14-game losing streak for the 76ers in Toronto, as Jimmy Butler scored 30 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. "He was just a tremendous rock," Philadelphia coach Brett Brown told reporters of Butler, who had just 10 points in Game 1. Philadelphia set the tone for its Game 2 victory by holding Toronto to 17 first-quarter points and it maintained the defensive intensity for most of the contest. Butler was the lone standout among Philly starters but the 76ers bench come up big. James Ennis scored a playoff career-high 13 points, while Greg Monroe backed up Embiid with 10 points and five rebounds (note: Joel Embiid has been battling knee issues but it was a stomach illness that nearly caused him to miss Game 2 before he contributed 12 points in 32 minutes). Philly's bench totaled 26 point for the game. As for Toronto, Leonard scored 35 points and Pascal Siakam added 21 (note: he shot just 9 of 25 from the floor). Leonard made 13-of-24 shots in Game 2 but the rest of the Raptors were 20-of-66 (30.3%). Toronto's bench scored a total of just FIVE points, shooting a combined 2-11 (18.2%). Toronto will need a more balanced effort in Game 3, Leonard (40.0) and Siakam (25.0) need help. The Sixers' defense was shaky in Game 1 but terrific in Game 2, as they held the Raptors to 36.7 percent shooting, including 27.0 percent from beyond the three-point arc (10 of 37). Raptors head coach Nick Nurse isn't focused solely on statistics. He believes the Raptors simply missed too many shots. Sure, the Sixers' defense might have been improved but the Raptors missed 27 three-point attempts (poor shooting, not good defense). As poorly as Toronto played, Danny Green misfired on a potential three-pointer that would have tied Game 2 in the waning seconds. Leonard makes Toronto a "different team" this postseason and speaking of defense, the Raptors have allowed fewer than 100 points in SIX straight playoff games.That's a recipe to win on the playoff road and this win comes with "room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals -153 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My 7* Getaway Day Romp is on the Was Nats at 4:05 ET. The St Louis Cardinals opened the week coming off a 7-2 homestand as they began a seven-game road trip with four games in Washington against the Nationals. The Cards have won each of the first three to extend their current streak to five in a row and 10 of their last 11 games to claim the best record in the majors at 20-10. The visiting Cardinals look to complete a four-game sweep on Thursday at Washington, which has lost SIX of its last seven, falling to 12-17. Dakota Hudson (2-1, 5.63 ERA) takes the mound for St Louis and Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 3.82 ERA) for Washington. Hudson made 26 relief appearances last season but five of his six appearances in 2019 have been as a starter. He's won the last two, overcoming three solo HRs to work five innings in a 6-4 victory versus the New York Mets on April 21, before again allowing three runs in a season-high 5.2 innings of a 6-3 triumph against Cincinnati on April 27. Strasburg allowed four ERs or more in THREE of his first four starts of 2019 but he's been sharp in his most recent two. He beat Miami 5-0 on April 21, allowing two hits with 11 Ks. Six days later he allowed two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against San Diego. The jury is still out on Hudson and considering his longest effort this season (in five starts) is 5.2 innings, I'm part of that jury. This will be his first start against the Cards but in four career appearances against the Nationals as a reliever, he owns a 7.71 ERA (troublesome, right?). As for Strasburg, while he hasn't faced the Cards since 2016, he owns a 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six career starts against them (Nats are 4-2). NO sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-02-19 | Rockies v. Brewers -115 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Mil Brewers at 1:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers opened the season 8-2 but then went 5-11 over their next 16 games. Milwaukee did win last Friday (10-2) and Saturday (8-6) at Citi Field against the Mets but could not complete the sweep, falling 5-2. Milwaukee opened a 10-game homestand at 15-14 on Monday against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies opened the 2019 season 3-12 but Colorado then won 10 of its next 13. Milwaukee took Monday's game 5-1 and Tuesday's contest 4-3, before Colorado earned an 11-4 victory on Wednesday. The 14-17 Rockies will try for a four-game series split against the 17-15 Brewers on Thursday afternoon. The pitching matchup will feature Jon Gray (2-3, 3.65 ERA) going up against Freddy Peralta (1-0, 7.13 ERA). Gray was not on his game last Saturday in Atlanta, allowing five runs, eight hits (including two HRs) and three walks in 4.2 innings of Colorado's 9-5 victory. However, he had allowed just a combined two runs on 10 hits over 19.1 while going 2-1 in his previous three starts. Gray has made four career starts vs the Brewers and while he has 35 strikeouts in 23.1 innings, he owns a 5.40 ERA (0-1 / team is 2-2). Freddy Peralta (shoulder) will be activated from the 10-day IL to start Thursday. Peralta made a rehab start Saturday with Double-A Biloxi, striking out seven over 4.2 innings. Peralta has had an 'ugly' start to teh 2019 season, as he did not get out of the fourth inning in three of his first four starts. However, he allowed two hits and struck out 11 in eight innings of a 1-0 victory at Cincinnati on April 3 in the other. I've always believed Gray has been overrated and his 5.40 ERA in four starts vs Milwaukee hardly breeds confidence. Neither does Colorado's struggles vs Milwaukee, as the Rockies were just 2-12 in their previous 14 meetings (including the postseason), prior to Wednesday's 11-4 win. Milwaukee has homered in each of its first 17 home games this season, a club record and the third-longest such streak in baseball history behind the 2000 Blue Jays (21) and the 2002 Athletics (18). The Brewers are averaging 5.41 RPG here at Miller Park, while the once-feared Colorado lineup ranks 21st in scoring (4.39 RPG) and in OPS (.708), while ranking 22nd in team BA (.234). Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-19 | Blues v. Stars -119 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Week is on the Dal Stars at 9:38 ET. The St Louis Blues were last in the NHL (15-18-4) back on Dec 31 but fashioned one of the best mid-season turnarounds in NHL history by 30-10-5 to end teh regular season. St Louis’ fortunes turned around with the emergence of goaltender Jordan Binnington, who did not make his first NHL start until Jan 7. Binnington had played one game for the Blues in 2015-16, but set a franchise record for wins by a rookie, while finishing 24-5-1 with a league-leading 1.89 GAA (also had an impressive .927 save percentage). The Blues eliminated the Jets in six games and currently hold a 2-1 edge in their Western Conference semifinal, after taking Game 3 in Dallas, 4-3. St Louis is a perfect 4-0 on the road this postseason but Dallas is in a familiar position. The Stars also Game 3 at home in their opening round before rattling off three straight victories to oust Nashville. "Guys that have been in this situation, you know the ups and downs," Dallas defenseman Ben Lovejoy said. "What we did in the first round is came out and played probably our best game of the playoffs in Game 4. We need that effort again." Jordan Binnington tied a league record by notching his first 30 wins in only 39 games (playoffs included) with his Game 3 victory but he is allowing 2.65 GPG, almost a goal per game higher than in the regular season. St Louis surrendered the lead THREE times in Game 3 but came away with a one-goal win in what was in a thrilling contest, particularly over the final seven minutes of play. Is that good or bad news? As for the Stars, has falling short despite repeated comebacks in Game 3, sapped the 'life' out of them? My bet says "No way!" Ben Bishop is a veteran goaltender and has played better than Binnington this postseason, allowing 2.26 GPG (to Binnington's 2.65), with a .931 SP (Binnington's is .910). This series heads back to St Louis, tied at two-all! Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-19 | Indians -143 v. Marlins | 2-4 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians recorded a 7-4 victory last night in Miami, as Carlos Gonzalez (an offseason free agent) hit a go-ahead three-run HR in a four-run third inning. He had a pair of multi-hit games in the previous series and is 5-for-15 with two HRs and five RBI in the last four games.The Indians are 16-12, 1 1/2 games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central. Cleveland looks for sweep of this two-game IL series with the Marlins, who suffered their fourth straight loss on Tuesday, falling to 5-12 at home and 8-21 overall (that's MLB's worst record). Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.81 ERA) gets the start for Cleveland and will be opposed by Miami's Caleb Smith (2-0, 2.17 ERA). Kluber won a career-high 20 games in 2018 but has just two wins in six starts in 2019. He not only has a high ERA (see above) but he's got a 1.68 WHIP and a .287 BAA. Meanwhile, Smith has four straight quality starts, including last Thursday when he limited Philadelphia to one run on three hits with eight strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision. He has surrendered just two total runs over his last three starts, with a 22-4 KW ratio. He not only owns a 2.17 ERA but his WHIP is 0.83 and opponents are batting just .167 against him. So why Kluber and the Indians? First off, don't be two quick to dismiss Kluber. He's won two CY Youngs over the past five years (2014 and 2017) plus won a career high 20 games last season. He has piled up 56 wins over the past three seasons and enters this contest with Cleveland winning THREE of his last four trips to the mound (note: Cleveland's bullpen ERA is 3.32, tied for 2nd-best in all of MLB). Yes, Smith's off to a great start but he entered 2019 having made a modest 25 appearances (18 starts), with a 4.88 ERA. Hold off on any All-Star talk just yet. What's more, Miami pitchers have given up 28 runs in the team's current four-game slide (Marlins' bullpen owns a 5.29 ERA). Miami takes the field against Kluber, owners of MLB's lowest-scoring offense (2.83 RPG) and with the worst OPS (.618) of any team as well (not a good 'daily double!'). I'll take the two-time Cy Young winner in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-19 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Run-line Rout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Reds won Monday's series opener 5-4 over the Mets on a ninth-inning HR. They then got a pair of RBI singles to tie last night's game at 3-all, before the Mets survived that ninth-inning comeback to even the series on a sacrifice fly in the 10th for a 4-3 victory. The Mets are just 6-7 at Citi Field on the season (15-14 overall), while the Reds are 5-11 on the road and 12-17, overall. The pitching matchup for this third contest of the four-game series will feature Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 4.26 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (2-3, 4.85 ERA). DeSclafani earned his first win of 2019 in his last outing, limiting St.Louis to four hits and striking out six over six scoreless innings of a a 12-1 Cincy victory. DeGrom won last year's NL Cy Young award (despite a 10-9 record) but he quickly staked a claim on a second straight Cy Young by opening the 2109 season in dominating fashion. He struck out 24 batters over 13 scoreless innings to start 2-0 but he then stumbled with three straight rocky outings (14 ERs allowed over 13 innings), which was interrupted by a stint on the injured list due to an elbow issue. Tonight, deGrom is back on the mound and in four career starts against the Reds he has 34 strikeouts and a 2,25 ERA. As for DeSclafani, the Mets have been a nightmarish matchup for him, as he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in four games (three starts) against them. OK, talk of winning back-to-back Cy Young Awards one week into the season was obviously premature but it's time to see the "real" deGrom tonight and the Mets will welcome seeing DeSclafani as his mound opponent. Lay the 1 1/2 runs,, Good luck...Larry |
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05-01-19 | Islanders +109 v. Hurricanes | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Islanders at 7:08 ET. The New York Islanders shocked Pittsburgh by completing a four-game sweep and advance to the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs for just the second time in 26 years. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes (in the postseason for the first time since 2009) advanced to the conference semifinals by rebounding from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 to eliminate the defending champions Caps, with a 4-3 double-OT win at Washington in Game 7. The Islanders allowed the fewest goals in the league (196) and then saw Robin Lehner post a 1.47 GAA and a .956 save percentage in sweeping the Pens. Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek won 11 of his final 13 games in the regular season and then posted a 2.54 goals-against average against Washington. Carolina is up 2-0 with a 1-0 OT win in Game 1 and a 2-1 victory in Game 2. Both netminders had 31 saves in Game 1 and in Game 2, Lehner faced just 18 shots (allowed two goals), while Mrazek stopped nine of 10 shots before suffering a lower-body injury. However, Curtis McElhinney turned aside all 17 shots he faced in relief of Mrazek in Game 2's 2-1 victory. Mrazek will sit this one out but Carolina expects rookie Andrei Svechnikov (20 goals) to suit up. He has been sidelined since April 15 with a concussion sustained during a fight with Washington's Alex Ovechkin but he skated with the Hurricanes on Tuesday Islanders head coach Barry Trotz has directed teams out of playoff deficits in the past and he has tried to instill confidence in the Islanders. "We've had lots of chances," Trotz said. "It hasn't been a series where they've outchanced us, outplayed us. I think we've played a good portion of carrying the play, if you will, in good portions of the first two games." New York scored 14 goals in sweeping the Pens but has just ONE goal on 58 shots in losing the first two games of this series. My bet says that CAN'T continue. According to NHL.com, McElhinney becomes the oldest goalie to make his first Stanley Cup playoff start, at 35 years and 343 days. C'mon Isles, you HAVE to be able to win this one, right? Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -132 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks open a two-game interleague series Tuesday night at Chase Field. The Yankees have won 11 of 13 since sweeping a two-game series from Boston on April 16-17, while the D'backs have won 10 of 14. The Yankees are coming off a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, the team's fourth straight series win. New York has played well while playing through multiple injuries, including those to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Gary Sanchez has two HRs in four games since returning after missing two weeks with a left calf strain. First baseman/DH Luke Voit has been healthy all year and has reached base in 39 straight games. As for Arizona, the Diamondbacks could not outlast the Cubs in a 6-5, 15-inning setback on Sunday, their second consecutive loss following a five-game winning streak. Red-hot third baseman Eduardo Escobar hit two HRs on Sunday (he's batting .480 with 8 RBI his last six games). CC Sabathia (1-0, 2.40 ERA) will get the nod for New York and Zach Greinke (4-1, 3.72 ERA) gets the ball for Arizona. Sabathia underwent angioplasty and right knee surgery which delayed the start of his season but his is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in three starts, with 11 strikeouts in 15 innings, as the Yankees have won all three of his starts. The 38-year-old is set to retire after this season but needs just three strikeouts to reach 3,000 for his career(note: he will become the 17th pitcher in major league history to reach 3,000 strikeouts). Merrill Kelly was expected to start this game but he was pushed back because Arizona used all of its relievers Sunday. Greinke was moved up to start tonight but he is on regular rest. Greinke had an awful 2019 debut, allowing seven ERs vs the Dodgers on March 28, in just 3.2 innings. However, he's posted FIVE straight quality starts (he's 4-0 and the team 5-0). CC will get his three Ks (tonight or later) but I believe he is vulnerable here. After two outstanding outings (he did not allow an earned run in either of his first two starts), he roughed up for five runs (four earned) on six hits across five innings at the Los Angeles Angels this past Wednesday. Meanwhile, as noted above, Greinke has been in "top form" in each of his last five outings (all Arizona wins). Even despite his season-opening 'disaster,' Greinke owns an 0.99 WHIP and .218 BAA on the season. Over his last five starts, he's got a 2.20 ERA with a 37-5 KW ratio. He enters off back-to-back starts in which he's thrown 13 scoreless innings, allowing just five hits and 11 Ks. Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. Boston was able to get past Milwaukee last year, escaping with a Game 7 win at home to eliminate the upstart Bucks in the first round. However, the Bucks won more games than any team in this year's NBA (60) and opened their second round series with the Celtics this postseason as prohibitive favorites, after averaging 121.8 points during a four-game, first-round sweep of the Detroit Pistons. Boston won 49 games during the regular season (11 fewer than Milwaukee) and while the Celtics also delivered a four-game sweep in the first round (over the Pacers), Sunday's Game 1 results has to be considered stunning. Fourth-seeded Boston frustrated Milwaukee MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo and received an outstanding performance from Al Horford while posting a dominating 112-90 victory. Kyrie Irving opened the series with 26 points and 11 assists (no surprise, as he's led the team in scoring all season) but it was Horford's performance that had all talking after the game. Horford had 20 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks in the 22-point triumph and led the charge against Antetokounmpo, who was just 7-of-21 shooting while scoring 22 points. Horford was on the floor at the same time as Antetokounmpo for 22 minutes. During that time, Antetokounmpo made just 2 of 11 shots and had two shots blocked by Horford, as the Bucks posted a 63.3 offensive rating in those minutes. The top-seeded Bucks shot just 34.8 percent from the floor and had 11 shots blocked! Forward Khris Middeton (18.3-6.0-4.3 during the regular season) contributed 16 points, 10 rebounds and six assists but Milwaukee's other three starters combined for just 12 points on 3-of-17 shooting. So what should we expect in Game 2? Boston not only played great D in Game 1 but also shot 54 percent. It was the team's highest field goal percentage in a conference semifinal game since Game 5 in 2010 at Cleveland. Boston is unbeaten in the postseason and is attempting to start a postseason with six straight wins for the first time since 1985-86. The Celtics are allowing 91.4 PPG in their first five playoff games. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Bucks' 34.8 shooting percentage was their worst in a postseason game since Game 6 of 2015's first round contest against the Chicago Bulls. Do NOT expect a repeat performance. Milwaukee averaged 118.1 PPG (1st) in the regular season, while making 47.6% from the floor (3rd). The Bucks have averaged 119.2 PPG at home in going 35-9 SU (includes the postseason) and what's more, Milwaukee held its opponents to 43.3% shooting during the regular season, best in the league. The "real" Bucks show up tonight, as does the team's would-be league MVP. Sunday's loss was the third-worst loss by a No. 1 seed in a series opener under the league's current format. The Bucks have NO intention of joining the 2018 Toronto Raptors as the only top seed to fall behind 2-0 in this round under the current 16-team format that began in 1984. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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04-30-19 | Padres v. Braves -105 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Atlanta Braves were 90-72 last season (won NL East) but last night's 3-1 win over the visiting Padres leaves them at just 14-14 to open 2019. Meanwhile, the surprising Padres are 16-13 to open the season, including 9-5 on the road. I say surprising because San Diego won just 66 games last year, the team's EIGHTH consecutive losing season (most wins in any season over that span was 77). The pitching matchup for Tuesday's contest (second of a four-game set) will be San Diego's Chris Paddack (1-1, 1.67 ERA) going up against Atlanta's Julio Teheran (2-3, 5.40 ERA). The Padres expected big things from Paddack, as in 37 career appearances in the minor leagues, he had a 1.82 ERA with 230 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 177.2 innings. So far, he's been a s good as advertised in his first five major league starts. Paddack has held opponents to one run or less four times, while issuing one walk or fewer in four games. Amazingly, the 23-year-old just earned his first major-league victory in his last start (his fifth of the season!) last Wednesday against Seattle (note: Padres are 4-1 in his starts). He owns a 30-8 KW ratio, an .067 WHIP and a BAA of .112. Teheran gave five runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings against Cleveland on April 20 (8-4 Atlanta loss), after giving up three runs or less three times in his first four starts. He rebounded from that poor outing at Cleveland by striking out seven while surrendering three runs on five hits with three walks in six innings last Thursday at Cincinnati. However, he took a 4-2 loss. So why go against the red-hot Paddack? First off, let's not give him the NL Cy Young just yet. Let me also note that Teheran is a sold vet and in 10 career starts against San Diego, owns a respectable 3.73 ERA. I believe the Padres have played well over their heads so far plus San Diego felt the absence of rookie shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who suffered a hamstring injury Sunday, as replacement Greg Garcia recorded one of three errors in Monday’s loss. The Padres are hopeful Tatis, who led San Diego in hits (30) and steals (six) entering Monday and has reached base in 14 of his previous 15 games, will avoid the injured list but he WON'T play here. Speaking of Monday's loss to the Braves, San Diego has won only ONE game in Atlanta since 2016, going 1-11 in that time. I'll back the Braves in this 92% winning situation., Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:30 ET. The third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers will be well-rested when they visit the second-seeded Denver Nuggets for Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. The Blazers eliminated the OKC Thunder in five games last Tuesday, while the Nuggets needed all seven games to get past San Antonio. Denver edged the Spurs 90-86 this past Saturday night at Pepsi Center. Portland PG Damian Lillard exploded for 50 points in the team's Game 5 clincher against the Thunder, with the last three coming on a step-back three-pointer at the buzzer from 37 feet away. Lillard (33.0-4.4-6.0) and backcourt partner CJ McCollum (24.4-5.4-4.0) carried the scoring load in the first round but the team was able to overcome the loss of starting center Jusuf Nurkic (15.6 & 10.4 during the regular season) thanks to the play of Enes Kanter (13.2 & 10.2). Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its first round win came mostly on the back of the team's All Star center, Nikola Jokic. He led the Nuggets in scoring (20.0), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.2) in the regular season and recorded a triple-double with 21 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in Game 7. Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record he averaged 23.1-12.1-9.1 assists vs the Blazers with six double-doubles (included were triple-doubles in Games 1 & 7). Point guard Jamal Murray, the team's second best player during the regular season (18.2-4.2-4.8), was inconsistent in the first round but came through with a team-high 23 points in the clincher. The Blazers are better rested but the Nuggets come in with plenty of confidence. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in its final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in them winning THREE of four at home in the first round and the Nuggets are 29-5 in their last 34 home games. The Nuggets fared well against the Trail Blazers in the regular season, winning the first three meetings (extending their winning streak to SIX in a row over Portland), before the Blazers ended that six-game skid with a 115-108 home win on April 7.However, in that contest, Denver rested both Jamal Murray AND Nikola Jokic. Safe to say Jokic won't be rested here and I believe a fully-healthy Kanter would have a difficult time dealing with Jokic. However, it's hard to see Kanter being 100 percent. He reportedly played through a separated shoulder in the Game 5 win last Tuesday and has received treatment all week while practicing on a limited basis. I think the Blazers are doing a very good job taking care of it. But, I mean obviously, I'm not going to lie, it hurts pretty bad," Kanter told reporters Friday. "I mean I'm having a hard time changing my shirt or eating food. So it's a process. We're just taking it day by day, see how it feels."That does NOT seem like promising news for Portland fans (bettors). Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-19 | Rockies v. Brewers -111 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers opened 8-2 but then went 5-11 over their next 16 games. Milwaukee did win Friday (10-2) and Saturday (8-6) at Citi Field against the Mets but could not complete the sweep, falling 5-2. Milwaukee sits 15-14 as it open a 10-game homestand with the first of four against the Colorado Rockies on Monday. The Rockies opened the 2019 season 3-12 but Colorado has won 10 of its past 13, although its three-game winning streak came to an end with Sunday’s 8-7 loss to Atlanta. Monday's pitching matchup will feature Kyle Freeland (2-3, 4.23 ERA) of Colorado squaring off against Milwaukee's Zach Davies (2-0, 1.65 ERA). Freeland began last season as the team’s fifth starter but evolved into an ace after the All-Star break, posting a 9-1 record and 2.49 ERA in 14 starts. Freeland set the franchise ERA record last season (2.85) and finished with MLB's second-best moneyline mark (23-10, plus-$1,486). Freeland is set to return to the rotation after missing one start due to a blister on his left middle finger. He has battled blister issues in the past, and he's hoping skipping a start will help. He threw a couple of bullpen sessions, including one Friday at SunTrust Park in Atlanta. Davies has put last year's injury-plagued season behind him (2-7, 4.77 ERA in 13 starts / team was 5-8), having not allowed more than two ERs in any of his five starts this season. Also, let's NOT forget that he was 17-9 in 33 starts in 2017, as the Brewers went 20-13 (+$880). These teams are meeting for teh first time in 2019, after Milwaukee swept Colorado 3-0 in the 2018 NLDS (Brewers outscored the Rockies, 13-2). Yes, Colorado has won 10 of 13 but the team's offense is still averaging a modest 4.32 RPG (20th), while batting only .238 (21st). Davies is pitching well, while Freeland is a question mark. Good luck...Larry |
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04-29-19 | A's v. Red Sox -137 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The defending champion Red Sox opened the season with an 11-game road swing and went 3-8 and since then, every time they look as if they are about to turn a corner, they step on their own toes. Boston swept three games on the road vs Tampa Bay (April 19-21) but returned to Fenway and promptly lost FOUR of six, after scoring just three runs Saturday and Sunday in two losses to the Rays. Boston has three game left on its current homestand and will welcome the Oakland A's to Fenway starting tonight. Oakland went 97-65 in 2018 and finished as MLB's best moneyline team (+$3,663). However, the A's are just 14-16 in 2019 (-$418), after losing their first three on their nine-game road trip (Oakland is coming off getting swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend). Monday's pitching matchup will feature Frankie Montas (4-1, 3.10 ERA) against Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 5.88 ERA). Montas alowed a season-hihgh nine hits in 5.2 innings in his last start but gave up only three runs, as he earned an 11-4 win over Texas. He was coming off two solid starts in which he had allowed four runs on just six hits over 12.1 innings while winning his previous two starts. Like Montas, Boston's Rodriguez has pitched well lately, going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts (team is 3-0), after getting rocked for 11 ERs on 14 hits in eight innings over his first two starts of 2019. One of those poor starts came at Oakland on April 4, when Rodriguez was knocked around for six runs on eight hits in just 3.2 innings. Boston was held to two runs or less for the eighth time this year on Sunday. The Red Sox struck out 21 times and went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position against Tampa Bay. However, let me note that in home night games vs right-handers in 2019, Boston is 4-1, while averaging 6.6 RPG. This marks Montas' first career start vs Boston, although he made a pair of relief appearances against Boston in 2017 and struck out six while scattering three hits in 3.2 scoreless innings. I don't like his chances here in his first start at Fenway against a Boston team long overdue to break out. Boston has won Rodrigue's last three starts (see above) and let's NOT forget that the Red Sox went 19-4 in his starts in 2018, giving him MLB's sixth-best moneyline mark (+$1,387). Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners -123 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Sea Mariners at 4:10 ET. Seattle followed Thursday's 14-2 rout of Texas with a 5-4 win Friday night in 11 innings. Texas is an impressive 10-4 at home to open the current season but Friday's loss dropped the Rangers to 2-9 on the road, including 0-5 on its current seven-game road trip. The Rangers and Mariners met Saturday night, with the Rangers sending Mike Minor to the mound. Minor had made five career starts vs Seattle, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA (teams were 0-5!). The Seattle lineup he would face entered the contest leading MLB in scoring (6.28 RPG) and ranked 2nd in OPS (.834). What's more, Minor took the mound for a 2-9 road team, allowing 6.18 RPG. So what happened? Minor registered a career-high 13 strikeouts on Saturday, allowing just three hits and on e run in Seven innings, while the Rangers scored a season high in runs in a 15-1 victory (also banged out 15 hits) Texas attempts to earn a split of its four-game series against the host Seattle Mariners on Sunday, a day after snapping its five-game slide. Lance Lynn (2-2, 6.51 ERA) gets the ball for Texas and Erik Swanson (0-2, 4.61 ERA) for Seattle. Lynn just allowed eight runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings of an 11-5 loss at Oakland on Tuesday. Lynn's only career start vs the Mariners occurred when he permitted two runs in six innings of a 4-2 victory in Seattle last year while pitching for the New York Yankees. Swanson was originally selected by Texas in the eighth round of the 2014 draft and will take the mound against the Rangers at T-Mobile Park in search of his first major league victory. He was one of three players traded by the Rangers on July 31, 2016, to the New York Yankees in exchange for Carlos Beltran. The Mariners acquired him in the offseason in the deal that sent James Paxton to New York. Swanson is expected to stay in the rotation until Wade LeBlanc (oblique) returns sometime next month. The marks Swanson's third start but he allowed just one one on two hits (including a solo HR) in six innings of a 1-0 loss to Cleveland on April 17 in his only previous home start. Pitchers always like to beat one of their former teams and I really like Swanson's chances here. Sure, Seattle flopped last night but they still enter this game leading MLB in scoring (6.10 per) and with 59 HRs, plus own MLB's third-best OPS (.821). Seattle's lineup faces a struggling Lynn in this contest (1.55 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with his 6.51 ERA) and let's not forget that Texas had allowed 42 runs in the first five contests of their seven-game road trip. Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 3:30 ET. The Golden State Warriors barely escaped the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference finals last season. PG Chris Paul went down in Game 5 of that series with a hamstring injury and the Warriors would go on to take the series, winning Game 6 at home in a rout and then eking out a Game 7 win in Houston, as the Rockets 'shot themselves in the foot' by missing 27 three-pointers in a row during the decisive Game 7. The teams meet in a rematch a round earlier this year and the while the top-seeded Warriors own the homecourt advantage this time around, the fourth-seeded Rockets did win both regular season meetings in Oakland during the regular season. The Rockets went up 3-0 in their series with the Jazz and after a Game 4 'stumble,' closed out Utah back at Houston in Game 5. Meanwhile, the Warriors were shocked in Game 2 at home by the Clippers and then again at home in Game 5, after they entered that contest off back-to-back wins in LA. Golden St took care of the Clippers easily in Game 6, as K.D. had a career playoff-high 50 points and the team's defense (thanks in large part to Andre Iguodala) harassed LA's Lou Williams into 3-for-21 shooting in the series finale (note: Williams had 36 and 33 points in Gam2 and Game 5 wins at Oakland). Maybe it shouldn't be too much of a surprise that the Rockets had an easier time in the first round than the Warriors, as over the regular season's final eight weeks the Rockets went 20-4, while the Warriors were a modest 15-9. However, while James Harden struggled to 37.4 percent from the floor in the first round, Kevin Durant averaged 35 points on 56.7 percent shooting vs the Clippers. The rivals will be meeting in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons, with Golden State having prevailed in the previous three. The Rockets lost 10 of 11 in the regular season and eight of 10 in the playoffs to the Warriors to begin the Steve Kerr coaching era but have won each of the last two season series. However, let's NOT forget Houston's loss to Golden St in last year's Western Finals (see above). Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both limped off the court after rolling ankles in Friday's Game 6 but I sure wouldn't count them out, here. Game 1 is HUGE and I'm making a 'big play" on the three-time NBA champs (over a four-year span). Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -139 | 2-1 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Islanders at 3:00 ET. The New York Islanders shocked Pittsburgh by completing a four-game sweep, while the Hurricanes advanced to the conference semifinals by overcoming a pair of two-goal deficits to edge the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, 4-3, in double overtime Wednesday night in Game 7. The Hurricanes are in the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and had waited almost 10 years to play in the second round of the NHL playoffs, while the Islanders are in the second round for just the second time in 26 years! Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek won 11 of his final 13 games in the regular season and then posted a 2.54 goals-against average against Washington. The Islanders allowed the fewest goals in the league (196) and then saw Robin Lehner post a 1.47 GAA and a .956 save percentage in sweeping the Pens. Game 1 of the series was Friday night at Barclays Center. Both goaltenders made 31 saves but despite limiting the opposition to one goal for the fourth consecutive game, the Islanders find themselves trailing in a series for the first time this postseason, after falling 1-0 in OT. The Hurricanes were playing just 48 hours after eliminating defending Stanley Cup champion Washington with a Game 7 overtime victory on the road but 'stole' Game 1 on Jordan Staal's OT goal. Defense and goaltending have been the calling cards in the playoffs for New York, which outscored the Penguins 14-6. However, the Islanders was unable to dent the scoreboard against Mrazek, who turned aside 31 shots to register his fifth career playoff shutout and second of his postseason. However, the Islanders know that they have now limited Carolina to one goal for the fourth time in five meetings in 2019, so the players are not overreacting to the team's first loss of this year's playoffs. Lehner owns a 1.36 GAA and a .958 SP in the 2019 playoffs and expect New York, which has NEVER lost the first two games of a playoff series at home, to even things up in Game 2. Good luck...Larry |
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04-28-19 | Rays v. Red Sox -146 | 5-2 | Loss | -146 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Bos Red Sox at 1:05 ET. The Red Sox swept a three-game series from teh Rays last weekend at Tropicana Field, winning 6-4, 6-5 and 4-3 (11 inn), The AL East rivals are back at each other this weekend in Fenway Park. Boston opened the series having scored 18 runs in back-to-back wins over Detroit but after Friday's series opener was wiped out by rain, managed just five hits and scored their only run Saturday on a solo HR by Mookie Betts in a 2-1 loss. The Rays were able to make teh most out of only four hits, including a solo HR by Yandy Diaz, to scratch out the one-run victory. However, it marked just Tampa's third win in its last eight contests. The Rays enter Sunday 17-9, 6 1/2 games better than Boston, which checks in 11-16 (Red Sox started the season 3-9). Sunday's pitching matchup features Tyler Glasnow (4-0, 1.53 ERA) and Chris Sale (0-4, 7.43 ERA). Go figure? Sale is winless in his first five starts (Boston is 0-5), while Glasnow has already matched his victory total from parts of his first four seasons with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. He won his first four starts before settling for a no-decision with 5.1 innings of two-run ball against the Red Sox last Sunday, when Boston won 4-3 in 11 innings. No doubt, Glasnow has been one of the best pitchers in the majors in April. In stark contrast, Sale lost his first four starts of 2019 (8.50 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and a .311 BAA) but finally showed some signs of 'life' in his last outing. He struck out a season-high 10 while giving up just two runs on five hits over five innings against Detroit on Tuesday (Tigers won 7-4, with Sale taking a no-decision). Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here but I just can't believe that Sale WON'T get things turned around. He is 9-5 with a 2.96 ERA in 18 career appearances (16 starts / teams are 10-6) against the Rays, including 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay last season when he fanned 18 in 13.2 innings. Meanwhile, Glasnow will be making just his 17th start since being acquired from Pittsburgh and prior to 2019, the Rays had won just 4 of his 11 starts in 2018. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against Boston, both Tampa losses. Make that 0-3, as Boston and Sale win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 120-103 win at home. LaMarcus Aldrige had pretty much been a non-factor in the first five games of the series but scored 26 points and added 10 rebounds in Game 6. DeRozan, the team's leading scorer in the postseason so far at 22.5 PPG, chipped in 25-7-7, plus Rudy Gay had 19 points. San Antonio opened the fourth quarter on a 22-4 run, blowing the game open and finished the contest shooting 57.1 percent from the floor. The Nuggets dominated the paint in Game 6 (outscored the Spurs 72-36) but shot a woeful 6 of 24 (25%) on threes. Jokic posted a career-playoff high of 43 points and just missed a triple-double with 12 rebounds and nine asists. The series concludes with Saturday's Game 7 in Denver. San Antonio is looking to avoid its second straight first-round exit, after staving off elimination by shooting 57.1 percent from the floor and committing just eight turnovers. Can the Spurs really do that again here in Denver?The Spurs did win Game 1 of this series in Denver but in Game 2 and 5 losses at Pepsi center, the Spurs averaged just 97.5 PPG on 43.2% shooting, including 28.6% on threes. Denver's All-Star center Nikola Jokic's postseason debut has been a "coming-out" party. His 43 points in Game 6 established a franchise playoff record and he enters Game 7 averaging 23.5-11.7-9.0 with five double-doubles in the series. Denver has arguably been the NBA's deepest team all season but its bench totaled only 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting in Game 6. Doesn't that almost HAVE to change here in Game 7? Here's the rub. The Spurs had gone 0-6 SU (0-6 or 0-5-1 ATS) against Western Conference playoff teams on the road since the calendar turned to 2019, before winning Game 1. Throw in San Antonio's road losses (and non-covers) in Games 2 and 5 and the Spurs are 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS (or 1-7-1 ATS) in tonight's situation since Jan 1. As for Denver, the Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home during the regular season, going 26-4 in their final 30 regular season games at Pepsi Center. Throw in this series and the Nuggets are 28-5 in their last 33 home games. Home teams win Game 7s more than 80% of the time and I'm laying the points. This is NOT "your father's" Spurs! Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners -116 | 15-1 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. The Mariners have done most of their damage on the road in the early part of 2019, going 11-4 away from Seattle in an 18-11 start to the season. However, they have won the first two of this current four-game homes series with the Rangers, following Thursday's 14-2 rout with a 5-4 win last night in 11 innings. Texas is an impressive 10-4 at home to open the current season but the Rangers are only 2-9 on the road after last night's loss, with the team falling to 0-5 on its current seven-game road trip. The Rangers will send lefty Mike Minor (2-2, 3.21 ERA) to the mound tonight, opposed by Seattle's Mike Leake (2-2, 4.30 ERA). Minor has been a pleasant surprise for Texas. He missed all of 2015 and 2016 with arm troubles and then made 65 relief appearances in 2017 with KC. He was a nice surprise with Texas last season, going 12-8 in 28 starts. He's made five 2019 starts and has worked at least six innings in each of his last four outings. Seattle's Leake served up three HRs for the second time in a three-start span when he lost to the Angels in his last outing, giving up four runs and six hits over six innings of an 8-6 loss (he did not get a decision). He has allowed eight HRs in just 29.1 innings this season but they all have come during his three road starts. Leake is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against Texas (teams are 3-3) which looks downright Cy Young-like next to Minor's record vs the Mariners. Minor has made five career starts vs Seattle, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA (teams are 0-5!). The Seattle lineup Minor will face tonight leads all of MLB in scoring (6.28 RPG) and ranks 2nd in OPS (.834). What's more, Minor takes the mound for a 2-9 road team, allowing 6.18 RPG. Easy choice, here. Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Rockies +115 v. Braves | 9-5 | Win | 115 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Col Rockies at 7:20 ET. The Rockies stumbled out of the gate losing 12 of their first 15 games. Colorado's bats were uncommonly 'quiet' in that stretch but the Rockies won for the NINTH time in 11 games last night, 8-4 over the Braves in Atlanta (Colorado is now 12-14). SS Trevor Story struggled offensively in the early days of the season (like many of his teammates), but he has found his form entering Saturday’s middle contest of a three-game series in Atlanta. He extended his hitting streak to a career-best 14 games in Friday’s victory, going 2-for-5 with a HR, a double and two runs scored in his sixth multi-hit game in his streak. As for the Braves, they fell for the seventh time in their last 10 games and are now just 12-13 on the season. Atlanta pitchers have allowed five or more runs FIVE times in the last seven games, while the team's hitters are 4-for-41 with runners in scoring position and have left 32 runners on base in its last four contests. The pitching matchup for Saturday's contest will feature Jon Gray (2-3, 2.78 ERA) vs Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85 in 2018). Gray, like the entire Colorado team, had a shaky beginning to the season (0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in his first two starts). However, he's rebounded with three excellent starts. He has surrendered only two runs on 10 hits across 19.2 innings in his past three games (0.92 ERA). He lost the first contest 1-0 of that three-game stretch but has notched back-to-backs wins, since. Atlanta's Foltynewicz will be making his 2019 season debut for the Braves, after only pitching two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. He made the All-Star team while helping pitch the Braves to the N East title in 2018. Last year's record is noted above and I'll add that he finished eighth in NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he posted a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. The bad news for Foltynewicz and the Braves is, Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.11 ERA in eight career games (six starts) against the Rockies, with Atlanta losing all SIX of his starts against Colorado. More bad news comes Atlanta's way in the fact that Colorado's Gray is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and a .213 BAA in five career starts against Atlanta (Rockies are 4-1. Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Brewers v. Mets -130 | 8-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. Milwaukee opened the 2019 season 8-2 but came into last night's game at Citi Field with the Mets having dropped FOUR in a row and SEVEN of eight. However, a five-run third inning jump-started the Brewers to an eventual 10-2 victory, as four players registered multiple RBI. With the lopsided loss, New York has now dropped SIX of its last nine games, getting outscored 16-2 the past two contests The 14-13 Brewers and the 13-12 Mets (just 4-5 at home) meet in the middle contest of this this three-game series Saturday night. Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 5.81 ERA) will get the ball for Milwaukee, opposed by New York's Noah Syndergaard (1-2, 5.90 ERA). Woodruff is coming off allowing five runs on seven hits across 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday (LA won 6-5). He's now allowed four or more runs in three of his past four starts and both of his 2019 wins have come in games against the Cardinals (3.38 ERA). He will face the Mets tonight, for the first time in his career. Syndergaard has been a big disappointment in 2019 and comes in struggling in his last two trips to the mound, after winning his ONLY game of 2019 back on April 10. He's allowed 11 runs (nine earned) on 17 hits over 10 innings in his last two. However, he does have 34 strikeouts across 29 innings in 2019 and completed at least six innings in his first three starts of the campaign. Milwaukee is in search of back-to-back wins for the first time in almost two weeks and considering Woodruff owns a 7.47 ERA in 2019 over three starts when NOT facing the Cards, I do not see the Brewers adding another "W," tonight. Syndergaard posted a 2.38 ERA in two starts vs Milwaukee last season, giving him a 1.48 ERA over four career starts vs the Brewers (Mets have won THREE of four). Make that FOUR of five. Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Yankees v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on NYY/SFG Over at 4:05 ET. The Yankees famously have have a major league-high 13 players on the injured list but are lucky that power-hitting first baseman Luke Voit isn't one of them. Voit was 3-for-4 with a HR and three RBI in Friday’s 7-3 victoryat San Francisco and has now reached base safely in a career-high 36 straight games. The Giants saw their three-game winning streak come to an end and have now scored three or less runs in FIVE of their last seven contests. Saturday's pitching matchup is a meeting of lefties, as J .A. Happ (0-2, 5.96 ERA) takes on Derek Holland (1-3, 4.33 ERA). Happ is one of NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five seasons but one couldn't tell that by the way he's pitched so far in 2019. He's yet to earn a win through five starts (Yanks are 3-2 in his starts) , as opponents are batting .275 against him and he owns a 1.40 WHIP. Holland lost his second straight decision last Saturday, after giving up three runs on four hits over five innings against Pittsburgh. He does own an impressive 34-13 KW ratio over 27 innings but he's allowed a HR in each of his first five starts (Giants are 1-4). Both starters are very familiar with their opponents tonight and their records against those opponents are why I'm playing this contest OVER. Happ owns a 1-4 record and 4.80 ERA in five career starts versus the Giants, while Holland is 1-7 with a 6.38 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) vs the Yankees. Last night's over/under number was "7" with two much better pitchers on the mound (Paxton & Bumgarner) and the final was 7-3. Not sure why we see a similar over/under number in the Happ/Holland matchup? I guess we'll find out. Good luck...Larry |
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04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -124 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Card welcomed the Reds to St Louis for a three-game series on Friday, having won FIVE in a row overall and 10 of their last 11 home games. The Reds arrived in St Louis early Friday morning, following a rain-delayed 4-2 home win Thursday night over Atlanta, Cincy began the game just 3-8 on the road in 2019, averaging just 2.73 RPG in their 2019 road games, while the Cards had averaged 6.08 RPG in their 13 home contests. So naturally, the Reds looked nothing like a last-place team or a fatigued team by tying a season high with five HRs in a 12-1 rout of St. Louis in the series opener. Cincinnati got HRs from Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winkler, Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig and Jose Peraza among 14 hits, while the Cardinals, who lead the National League Central in runs scored, had eight hits and just one run! Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.52 ERA) will take the mound for Cincy and Dakota Hudson (1-1, 5.89 ERA) for the Cards. Mahle showed some good stuff last Sunday in San Diego, striking out nine without walking a batter over six innings However, he also allowed four runs in a 4-3 loss. He still searching for his first win in 2019, as the Reds have lost THREE of his four starting assignments. Mahle made one start against St. Louis in his 2018 rookie campaign and allowed five runs on nine hits in 5.1 innings to suffer a loss. Hudson allowed three runs (on three solo shots) last Sunday vs the Mets but earned his first big league win as a starter, as the Cards prevailed 6-4. Hudson tossed two hitless innings of relief against Cincinnati in his 2018 rookie campaign. Friday night's blowout was Cincy's SIXTH win in eight games but I won't overreact. After all, the Reds did enter last night's contest averaging just 2.73 RPG in their first 11 road games of 2019. As for the Cards, they can be forgiven a blip, as they enter this game having won 10 of their last 12 home contests. Let me add that Hudson has allowed just three ERs at home, in 24 career innings (1.13 ERA). Good luck...Larry |
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04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants +120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. The NY Yankees saw their six-game winning streak come to an end with Thursday’s 11-5 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. New York moves up the coast for this weekend three-game series with the Giants, continuing what will be a nine-game road trip (it concludes with two games in Arizona vs the Diamondbacks). It's a well-reported fact that the Yankees have 13 players on the injured list but the Yanks have won EIGHT of 10 to reach 14-11 and close withing two games of the first-place Rays (16-9) in the AL East. The 11-14 Giants welcome the Yankees to AT&T Park, returning home off a 4-4 eight-game road trip. However, the Giants won their final THREE games of that trip, after sweeping a two-game IL series in Toronto. It's a showdown of lefties in Friday's pitching matchup, as James Paxton (2-2, 3.10 ERA) takes on Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 3.66 ERA). With Luis Severino shut down with a lat strain, the Yanks are really counting on Paxton, acquired in an offseason trade with Seattle. Paxton did little in his first three starts but has not allowed allowing a single run on just five hits with 24 strikeouts in 14 innings while lowering his ERA from 6.00 to 3.10 in his last two starts (Yanks won both). He is just the second pitcher in franchise history to record 12 or more strikeouts in back-to-back starts and will face the Giants for the first time in his career. Bumgarner gave up four runs in the first inning last Friday against Pittsburgh but then settled in to blank the Pirates over the next five innings. The former World Series MVP has pitched at least six innings in each of his first five starts while posting a 30-to-5 KW ratio over 32 innings but has just ONE win (team is just 1-4). Bumgarner is making just his second career start against the Yankees. He didn't get a decision when he pitched at Yankee Stadium in July of 2016, allowing seven hits and two runs in seven innings in a 3-2 loss. What's more, no one currently on the New York roster has ever batted against Bumgarner as a member of the Yankees. Here's the rub. Bumgarner has looked good in his first five starts of 2019 and deserves better than his one win. Overall, the Giants pitching staff has been outstanding (3.20 ERA ranks second in all of MLB) plus Bumgarner and the other starters are backed by a bullpen that owns MLB's best ERA at 2.48 (in comparison, the Yanks own a 4.45 bullpen ERA). If the Giants bats ever 'wake up'... The Yankees have a long history of struggling on the west coast and I believe Bumgarner is LONG overdue for some run support and I expect the Giants to 'bark loudly' as a home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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04-26-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -140 | 12-1 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. The St. Louis Cardinals have won five in a row overall and 10 of their last 11 home games. They open a weekend three-game series with the Cincinnati Reds at 15-9 and now own a 2 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the Cubs and Pirates, plus a three-game lead over last year's division champ, Milwaukee. Marcell Ozuna and Yadier Molina each homered as part of a four-run fourth inning in Wednesday's 5-2 victory over Milwaukee, with Ozuna (9 Hrs and 21 RBI) pushing his on-base streak to 14 games while Molina pushed his hitting streak to 12 consecutive contests. Paul Goldschmidt (9 HRs and 19 RBI) is riding an 11-game hitting streak overall. The Reds come in just 10-14 on the season but Thursday's 4-2 home win over Atlanta was the team's FIFTH win in seven outings (remember, the Reds opened the season 1-8). Anthony DeSclafani (0-1, 5.59 ERA) will get the nod for the Reds and will be opposed by the Cards' Miles Mikolas (2.1, 4.97 ERA). DeSclafani made a solid season debut in a no-decision vs Milwaukee on April 2 (5 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER) but followed with two 'ugly' starts, allowing 12 hits and 10 ERs at Pittsburgh and home to St Louis in team losses. He answered those two disastrous starts with a strong outing in his last start, allowing just one run on two hits in six innings at San Diego on April 19 (he settled for a no-decision in a 3-2 Cincy win). Mikolas became the first St Louis starter this season to record an out beyond the sixth inning, as he permitted two runs on four hits in eight innings of a 10-2 victory vs the New York Mets on Saturday. Mikolas was St. Louis' Opening Day starter, after resurrecting his career in Japan. He had flamed out in his first stint in the majors but returned last season to tie for the NL lead in victories in going 18-4. He finished fourth in ERA (2.83) and walked just 29 batters in his 32 starts. Mikolas went 10-1 over the final three months of the season, as the Cards finished 24-8 (+$1,1418) in all of his starts. After the Cards lost with Mikolas on teh mound back on March 28 (Opening Day), the Cards have won each of his last four starting assignments. He's made four career starts vs the Reds, going 2-0 with a 3.13 ERA, as the Cards are a PERFECT 4-0. He takes the mound tonight for a St Louis team which is 10-1 its last 11 at home to face a Cincy team which opened 0-7 on the road in 2019, before winning THREE of four at San Diego from April 18-21. The Reds have averaged just 2.73 RPG in 11 road games in 2019, while the Cards are averaging 6.08 RPG in their 13 home contests. This on has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Month is on the NY Islanders at 7:08 ET. This second round Eastern Conference series was expected to be another showdown between teh Caps and Pens. However, the New York Islanders shocked Pittsburgh by completing a four-game sweep, while the Hurricanes advanced to the conference semifinals by overcoming a pair of two-goal deficits to edge the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, 4-3, in double overtime Wednesday night. The win capped a series of comebacks by Carolina, which trailed the series two games to none and fell behind three games to two with a 6-0 loss in Game 5 on Saturday night. The Hurricanes are in the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and have waited almost 10 years to play in the second round of the NHL playoffs, while the Islanders are in teh second round for just the second time in 26 years! Carolina and New York are meeting for the first time since Jan 8, when the Hurricanes posted a 4-3 victory to prevent a four-game sweep in the regular-season series. Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek won 11 of his final 13 games in the regular season and then posted a 2.54 goals-against average against Washington. Defenseman Jaccob Slavin led the team in points in the first round with his club-best nine assists (no goals), while rookie Warren Foegele had four goals. Three more Carolina players chipped in three goals to help eliminate the Caps. Jordan Eberle led the Islanders in goals (four) and points (six), while Mathew Barzal notched a club-best five assists. Thomas Greiss turned aside 129 of 136 shots (.949 SP) while playing in all four regular-season meetings with the Hurricanes but New York has handed the goaltending duties off to Robin Lehner for the postseason and he has posted a playoff-best 1.47 GAA and a .956 save percentage in the first-round series. For the first time in the history of the four major North American pro sports leagues, every regular-season division champion was eliminated in the first round. However, despite their underdog status, there's nothing fluky about the Islanders and Hurricanes reaching the conference semifinals. New York was 26-14-3 after Jan 1, while Carolina was an even more impressive 30-12-2. That said, I strongly believe the edge here in Game 1 goes to New York, whose nine-day break is the longest for an NHL team in the potseason since the Chicago Blackhawks had nine days off heading into the Western Conference finals in 2015. The Islanders have held five practices during their long break, but head coach Barry Trotz sensed something different Thursday morning. "You could tell that there's guys that are turning the switch on a little bit -- not that they've turned it off, they've done a really good job, but I think the urgency is definitely there," said Trotz, who coached the Capitals to the Stanley Cup title last season before joining the Islanders last June. "They're a little more business-like, if you will. They've been business-like right through, but this is just a little different level." The Islanders allowed the fewest goals in the league (196) and then saw Lehner post a 1.47 GAA and a .956 save percentage in sweeping the Pens. The Hurricanes went just 3-for-25 with the man advantage in the first round, while the Islanders thwarted 10-of-11 power-play situations.Expect the well-rested Isles to grab Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The 48-34 San Antonio Spurs entered the 2019 postseason as the West's No. 7 seed but they've been playoff regulars, as 2019 marked the team's 22nd consecutive postseason appearance (it's the longest streak among the four major North American sports). As for the 54-28 Denver Nuggets, they lost a chance to make the postseason last year when they lost in OT at Minnesota in the season's final game. However, Denver surprised this season by battling the Golden State Warriors until the final week for the West's top-seed. The Nuggets ended a five-year playoff drought by earning the West's No. 2 seed with a record in the regular season. The Spurs shocked the Nuggets in Game 1, winning at Pepsi Center. However, the Nuggets have won Games 2, 4 & 5 of the series and tonight in San Antonio are in position to win a playoff series for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, the Spurs are looking to avoid their second consecutive first-round exit and to avoid that scenario, will have to put up a better effort than they did in Game 5. The Nuggets dominated Game 5, leading by 11 at the half and by as many as 30 points in the final quarter to seize their first lead of the series. I've noted all season that the Nuggets are arguably the NBA's deepest team. Jamal Murray paced Denver with 23 points, one of SEVEN Nuggets in double figures. All-Star center Nikola Jokic has four double-doubles (including one triple double) during a strong playoff debut. He's averaging 19.6-11.6-9.0 in the series. Second-year PG Derrick White starred in the first three games of this series, averaging 23.0 PPG, as the Spurs went up 2-1. However, he's struggled in two straight losses, averaging just 10.0 PPG on 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%). LaMarcus Aldridge paced the Spurs in Game 5 with 17 points and 10 rebounds but overall, has been a non-factor in the series, after leading San Antonio in scoring (21.3) and rebounding (9.2) during the regular season. Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan added 17 points but made just 6 of 15 shots. He's averaged just 18 points in the back-to-back setbacks, dropping his team-best series average to 22.0. Here's the rub. "A close-out game is the hardest game that many of our young players will ever play in, especially against a team like San Antonio," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters."We want to win two straight," Spurs guard Bryn Forbes said,. "Our goal is to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two." I just don't see the veteran Spurs "going out' in this Game 6 at home. After all, when the Nuggets 'rocked' the Spurs in Game 4, that victory snapped a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio which stretched back to March 4, 2012. That Game 4 win also was just Denver's SECOND win on the road (in 13 tries!) vs Western Conference playoff teams since Dec 1. This series is headed back to Denver for a Game 7.
Good luck...Larry |
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04-25-19 | Indians +130 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Pitch PERFECT Play is on the Cle Indians at 8:10 ET. The Astros opened 2-5 before winning 10 in a row. Houston is just 3-4 since that winning streak ended but enters this series with the Indians having scored 17 runs in back-to-back wins over the Twins. Meanwhile, Cleveland is coming off a 6-2 win over the visiting Miami Marlins that halted a three-game slide. The 13-10 Indians will open a four-game series Thursday with the 15-9 Astros tonight in Houston. Thursday's pitching matchup will feature to former UCLA teammates, Trevor Bauer (2-1, 2.20 ERA) of Cleveland and Gerrit Cole (1-3, 5.22 ERA) of Houston. Bauer is coming off a game in which he struck out a season-best 10 and gave up two runs on three hits over 6.1 innings although he failed to earn a decision against the Atlanta Braves in his last star. Bauer is off to a strong start in 2019, having allowed five or fewer hits in four of his five starts and is holding opposing batters to a .167 average, while owning an 0.98 WHIP. Cole went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 2018, produced his best ERA since 2015 with Pittsburgh and had the top winning percentage of his career last season,while finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting He is looking to bounce back from what may have been the worst outing of his career in his last outing, as he allowed NINE runs (eight earned) on nine hits in 4.1 innings of a 9-4 loss to the Texas Rangers. Cole should pitch better here (how couldn't he?) but why go against Bauer, who is 7-0 in eight career starts (team is 8-0!) with a 3.18 ERA and 68 strikeouts in 51 innings against Houston. PERFECT is PERFECT! Good luck...Larry |
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04-24-19 | Dodgers v. Cubs +105 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Dodgers opened the season 8-2 but then lost SIX in a row. However, LA had won SEVEN of its last eight before losing 7-2 at Chicago on Tuesday. The Cubs opened 3-8 but Tuesday's win makes it EIGHT wins in the team's last 10 games, as the Cubs moved to 11-10 one game over .500 for the first time since winning their season opener. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez both homered for Chicago, supporting Jose Quintana’s third straight strong outing. The loss was just the second in nine games for the Dodgers but they failed to hit a HR for only the fourth time in 25 games this year. Wednesday's starters are Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) for LA and Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77 ERA) for Chicago. Buehler was taken 24th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft and exploded on the MLB scene late last season. Buehler finished 8-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts) on the season but was "something special" the last two months of the year. Buehler took the mound in Game No. 163 against the Rockies last October and allowed just one hit in 6.2 scoreless innings as LA clinched a sixth straight NL West title with a 5-2 win. That game was the 12th time in Buehler's final 13 regular season starts in which he had held an opponent to two ERs or less. However, Buehler has been inconsistent through his first four starts of 2019 (note his 5.40 ERA), although he’s coming off his best outing of the season. He registered a season-high eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6.1 innings on Wednesday in a 3-2 win. This marks his first start vs the Cubs. The veteran Hamels had a poor 2019 debut (5 ERs allowed over 5 IP vs Texas) but has been dialed in during his last three starts, with 19 strikeouts over 21 innings without issuing a walk (he's 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA). He comes off a dominant effort last Wednesday at Miami, fanning a season-high eight batters while limiting the Marlins to three hits over seven scoreless innings. Hamels is 3-2 with an outstanding 1.86 ERA in nine career regular season starts against the Dodgers. I had the Cubs yesterday, noting that they had outscored the Dodgers 35-23 in seven meetings last season. The Cubs have won or split six straight home series dating to last year and can clinch another one when they host the Dodgers for the middle contest of their three-game series. The Dodgers average a National League-best 5.52 runs per game but they have scored two or less runs in six of the team's 10 losses. Up against the red-hot Hamels, the Dodgers could have trouble scoring again (note: The Cubs are allowing opponents just 2.44 runs in nine Wrigley games in 2019). Meanwhile, Buehler has allowed five ERs in TWO of his four starts here in 2019. It does mark his first-ever start vs the Cubs but it CAN'T be good news that he faced the Cubs in his lone relief appearance last season, getting ripped for five runs on five hits in one inning! Not sure why this game is basically a pick'em. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck...Larry |
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04-24-19 | Giants v. Blue Jays -103 | 4-0 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET. The San Francisco Giants hit a season-high four HRs in snapping Toronto's four-game winning streak by earning a 7-6 victory. The Giants conclude an eight-game road trip (3-4 so far) with a chance to complete a two-game sweep of the Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon. Pablo Sandoval had three hits and a HR, while Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Joe Panik also homered for the Giants, who entered the series with the third-fewest runs scored in the majors. An eighth-inning grand slam by Toronto's Rowdy Tellez made it a one-run game but coming off a 6-1 road trip, the Blue Jays fell to Toronto just 4-7 at Rogers Centre on the season. Lefty Drew Pomeranz (0-2, 4.82 ERA) will take the mound for San Francisco, while Toronto hands the ball to Clay Buchholz (0-0, 3.38 ERA). The two pitchers have 12 1/2 years of experience with the Red Sox between them, but played together at Fenway Park for just a half season, in 2016, after Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres. Pomeranz had a season-high seven strikeouts at Washington in his last start but took the 4-2 loss after giving up four runs on six hits over just 4.2 innings. It marked the fourth time in as many outings that he has failed to go beyond five innings. Pomeranz has 10 career appearances (eight starts / teams are 5-3) against the Blue Jays, going 3-2 with a 4.26 ERA. Buchholz started the season on the injured list as he continued to recover from a flexor tendon injury in his right elbow, his third flexor tendon injury since 2015. He has made just two starts this season. He turned in a strong season debut in his first start with Toronto (April 13), but settled for a no-decision despite limiting Tampa Bay to one run on six hits over six innings, although the Jays won 3-1. However, he labored some in a no-decision at Minnesota last time out (April 18), allowing three runs and three walks on six hits in 4.2 innings of game the Jays also won, 7-4.. The Giants did have those four HRs while scoring seven runs on Tuesday but the San Francisco remains 29th in scoring (3.08 RPG) and OPS (.616), while ranking 28th in team BA (.212). The Giants face Buchholz, who enjoyed success against San Francisco with Arizona last season, posting a 1-0 record and 1.89 ERA in three starts (he's faced the Giants just four times in his career but owns a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings). Let me add that he also owns an 11-3 record at Rogers Centre in his career and that in his lone home start this season, held Tampa Bay to one run on six hits in six innings. The left-handed Pomeranz has not gone more than five innings in any of his four 2019 starts and will face a Toronto lineup which is 5-1 (+$615) vs lefties so far in 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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