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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks -137 v. Giants | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Pitching Mismatch is on the Arz D'backs at 10:05 ET. The San Francisco Giants lost 5-1 to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night but rebounded last night to win, 6-3 while collecting 12 hits. Buster Posey broke out of a 2-for-28 slump with three hits and Alex Dickerson went 2-for-4 with a solo HR, as he has now reached base safely in each of his first eight games with the team. San Francisco broke a FIVE-game home losing streak against Arizona with the win. As for the D'backs, they lost for the EIGHTH time in their last 12 games, going just 4-for-17 with runners in scoring position. The teams continue their four-game series tonight, as Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) squares off against Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79 ERA). Greinke has not been very good over his last two starts (team is 1-1), allowing nine ERs on 18 hits over 13 innings (6.23 ERA) but let's NOT ignore that prior to his recent woes, he had allowed three ERs or less in 13 of his previous 14 starts! Greinke takes the mound here owning a 15.1-inning road scoreless streak, having gone 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three starts away from Chase Field. Pomeranz matched a career high with 11 strikeouts and allowed just two runs over five innings in last Monday’s 2-0 loss to Colorado. However, the outing was a MAJOR improvement for the veteran who posted a 19.16 ERA in four May starts. He was briefly removed from the rotation after that stretch. Pomeranz has just two wins in his 14 starts but the Giants are 4-0 in his no-decisions. Getting down to the nitty gritty, Greinke is CLEARLY the superior pitcher and what clinches it for me in this contest is the lifetime records of tonight's opposing pitchers. Greinke is 12-3 with a 2.34 ERA against the Giants in 19 career starts (teams are 15-4) and he's never lost in San Francisco, going 5-0 with a 1.37 ERA in seven starts at Oracle Park. In stark contrast, Pomeranz is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) vs Arizona. He's 0-4 (team is 2-5) in those seven starts, posting a 9.10 ERA. Greinke is the "easy choice" in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers -143 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET. The Dodgers opened their four-game series with the Rockies with a 12-8 win on Thursday, moving to 7- 0 against Colorado in 2019. However, Colorado finally solved the 'riddle of the Dodgers' with Friday's 13-9 triumph. The Rockies took advantage of three LA errors as part of an eight-run fifth inning. The Rockies, who sit 12 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, now set their sights on back-to-back victories against LA for the first time since last August Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA) will take the mound for LA, opposed by Colorado's Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92 ERA). Kershaw allowed four runs in six innings last Monday at Arizona, failing to record a quality start for the first time in EIGHT outings (LA lost, 8-5). Losing with Kershaw on the mound hasn't happened often to LA in 2019, as the Dodgers are 11-2 in his 13 starts. What's more, Kershaw is 22-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 40 career starts against Colorado (LA is 30-10). Gray enters having won each of his last three decisions and is coming off back-to-back strong road outings, allowing one earned run over six innings in Arizona on June 19 and then tossing six scoreless innings at San Francisco this past Monday. Gray has been solid at home for the most part in 2019, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in seven appearances (six starts / Rockies are 4-2). However, he is just 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 career starts against the Dodgers (Rockies are 6-6). As noted above, Friday's win by Colorado was its FIRST in eight tries vs LA in 2019 and trying to make it back-to-back wins over LA (for the first time since last August), figures to be a ''bridge too far' (especially when facing Kershaw). LA in a R-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-19 | A's +128 v. Angels | 7-2 | Win | 128 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET. The Oakland Athletics have been making a recent push toward a wild-card spot in the American League but so have the Los Angeles Angels. Both teams have won SEVEN of their last 10 and after the Angels beat the A's 8-3 last night in the opening contest of a four-game series in Anaheim, the 43-39 A's are just one game better than the 42-40 Angels. Oakland is 2 1/2 games out of the second AL wild card spot and LA, 3 1/2 games out. It's a jam-packed wild card field (SIX teams are within 4 1/2 games of the top-two positions), so the three games remaining in this series certainly have meaning. Oakland had won 10 of 14 overall contests and four straight on the road, before being limited to five hits on Thursday. As for the Angels, they moved two games over .500 for the first time this year, posting their FIFTH consecutive home victory and fourth in a row, overall. Mike Fiers (7-3, 4.20 ERA) will get the start for Oakland and Felix Pena (5-2, 4.68 ERA) will follow Noe Ramirez (3-0, 2.95 ERA), who will used as LA's "opener." Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 did not begin well for him. He entered May 7 with a 6.81 ERA but he then threw a no-hitter. Actually, Fiers' turnaround began in the previous two starts to that gem and he will enter tonight's contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last 11 starts. Fiers brings a NINE-start unbeaten streak into Friday's contest, a stretch during which he has gone 5-0 (A's are 6-2 with a suspended game in that stretch and Fiers owns a 2.51 ERA). Pena has followed an "opener" in 10 of his last 11 appearances, after beginning the season by making four traditional starts. He will follow Noe Ramirez on Friday. Pena had won FIVE straight decisions and back-to-back outings before suffering a 4-2 loss at St Louis on Saturday, allowing four runs (two earned) and four hits in four innings. Fiers is 5-4 with a 5.19 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts / teams are 7-4) vs the Angels but the is 2-0 in two starts against the Angels this season (2.25 ERA). Meanwhile, Pena has yet to defeat Oakland in his career, going 0-2 while surrendering 21 runs over 16 innings in three starts and two relief appearances (that's an 11.81 ERA, including a loss in two meetings this year. I'll close by adding that Oakland's 19-20 road record is VERY deceiving, as the A's opened 5-15 away from home in 2019 but enter this game 14-6 over their last 20 road games. I'm taking the 'price.' Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-19 | Cubs -108 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs hit the midway point of the season on a high note (81st contest of a 162-game season), squeezing out a dramatic a 9-7 win to earn a split of a four-game series against Atlanta. Chicago erased a five-run deficit in Thursday's win, just its SEVENTH in its last 17 games. The 44-37 Cubs lead the NL Central by one game over the Brewers and three over the Cards, as they open a nine-game road trip leading into the 2019 All Star break. The Reds welcome the Cubs to Cincinnati for this three-game weekend series with a 36-42 record. Cincy won SIX straight from June 16-21 but enter this game having lost FOUR in a row, while allowing 23 runs. The Reds are in last-place in the NL Central but they are just 6 1/2 games back of the division-leading Cubs. Cole Hamels (6-2, 2.92 ERA) takes the mound Friday for Chicago, opposed by Cincy's Sonny Gray (3-5, 4.03 ERA). The veteran Hamels has had quite a season, allowing three ERs or less in 14 of his 16 starts in 2019 (Cubs are 11-5). The lefty enters tonight's game looking to wrap up what's been a remarkable June. He may be just 2-0 (team is 3-2) in his five starts this month but he's pitched MUCH better than that record. Hamels has pitched at least seven innings in each one, allowing just four ERs (1.00 ERA) with 36 Ks over 36 innings. I'll get to his lifetime record vs the Reds in my closing argument. Gray's June has been NOTHING like Hamels'. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four June starts (team is a surprising 3-1) and comes off lasting just 4.1 innings (allowed six hits, four walks and four ERs) of a no-decision at Milwaukee last time out, although the Reds won 11-7. Going back further, the "underachieving" 29-year-old has completed six innings only TWICE in his last 11 starts. The Cubs are a 'shaky' 15-21 on teh road but I provide two HUGE positives in my support of them in this contest. Chicago is averaging an impressive 5.36 RPG in road contest and while send red-hot vet Lester to the mound. Lester enters in "top form" (1.00 ERA in five June starts) plus is a DOMINATING 12-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 18 career starts vs Cincy, with his teams going 17-1, which is a 94% winning situation. That's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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06-28-19 | Braves +132 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 132 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog of the Month (NL) is on the Atl Braves at 7;10 ET. The NL East-leading Atlanta Braves are 48-34 enter this weekend's three-game series at Citi Field with the 37-45 New York Mets, 11 games up on their division rival. The Braves had won 15 of their last 19 entering Thursday afternoon's game at Wrigley with the Cubs and appeared on their way a fifth win in six games, only to cough up a five-run lead in a 9-7 loss to Chicago. Atlanta remains on the the road on a 15-5 overall run to wrap up its 10-game road trip with three games against the Mets. New York was 27-27 in late-May but open the series on a five-game slide, having gone 10-18 overall to 'lose touch' with the division leader. Friday's pitching matchup features Mike Soroka (8-1, 2.07 ERA) and Jacob deGrom (4-6, 3.25 ERA). Soroka takes the mound tonight unbeaten since his season debut back on April 18. The Braves are 10-3 in his 2019 starts, as he not only owns that sparkling 2.07 ERA but an 0.97 WHIP and a n.201 BAA. Soroka and the Braves received a scare when he was hit in the right forearm by a pitch and had to exit Sunday's start at Washington after tossing two scoreless innings but the good news is, he's just fine. Soroka has been spectacular on the road with a 4-0 record, 1.07 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in seven starts (team is 5-2) plus is 3-0 (1.96 ERA) in his brief career vs the Mets . The "beat went on" the last time out for reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jason deGrom. Despite allowing two runs or less for the seventh consecutive start (more on that later), deGrom had to settle for a no-decision at the Cubs last Sunday (Mets would lose, 5-3). DeGrom owns a 1.88 ERA in 19 career starts against the Braves but owns a modest 7-6 record with the Mets going 8-11 in those starts. Atlanta owns the best record in MLB (18-7) in June and is 4 1/2 games ahead of the Phillies in the division. Meanwhile, the reeling Mets are coming off a demoralizing four-game sweep by Philadelphia, blowing a lead of multiple runs in each of the losses. The Mets suffered their major league-worst 20th blown save when the Phillies scored five runs in the ninth of Thursday's 6-3 victory. New York's bullpen ERA is 5.65 ERA, the third-worst in MLB (Atlanta's bullpen ERA of 3.75 ERA ranks 4th-best). The Braves own a HUGE bullpen advantage here and how does one ignore the following? DeGrom has typically suffered from a lack of run support and that has been no different in 2019. He's allowed two ERs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts, yet the Mets are just 3-8 in that 11-start stretch. Expect more 'pain' for deGrom and the Mets up against Soroka and the Braves! Good luck...Larry |
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06-27-19 | Braves v. Cubs -101 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Romp is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. Nick Markakis belted a three-run HR and Brian McCann added a solo shot in Wednesday's 5-3 victory as the Braves improved to 4-2 on their current 10-game road trip. What's more, the Braves have won 16 of their last 20 as they get set to play the finale of their four-game series Thursday afternoon at Wrigley against the Chicago Cubs. Atlanta's recent surge gives them a 48-33 record, opening a 5 1/2 game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. Meanwhile, the 43-37 Cubs are just 6-10 their last 16 games, leaving them just one game up on the Brewers in the NL East (Cards are 2 1/2 back). Bryse Wilson (0-0, 8.31 ERA) will get the start for Atlanta and Tyler Chatwood (3-1, 3.69 ERA) for Chicago. Wilson will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take a spot in the rotation that was created when Mike Foltynewicz was sent to the minors over the weekend. Wilson was the Braves' fourth-round pick in 2016 and while he's a modest 4-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 14 starts in Triple-A, he has registered 79 strikeouts in 78.1 innings plus has pitched shutout ball in FOUR of his past eight starts. Chatwood pitched for the LAA for one year and then spent five seasons with Colorado. He went 4-6 with a 5.30 ERA in 2018 with the Cubs over 24 appearances (including 20 starts). He's made 18 appearances in 2019 but just TWO starts. Chatwood is making his second straight start, after allowing three runs (two earned) and six hits in four innings against the New York Mets on June 20 (Cubs won, 7-4). The Cubs also won his April 21 start 2-1, when he pitched six scoreless innings. Atlanta has surrendered only five runs while winning Tuesday and Wednesday in Wrigley, after the Cubs prevailed in Monday's opener. However, let me point out that Chicago's losses came against lefties Fried and Keuchel and the untested Wilson is a righty. Chicago is a MONEY-MAKING 24-12 at home vs right-handed starters and I see the Cubs earning a split of this four-game series by winning behind Chatwood for the THIRD time in his three 2019 starts. I'm a perfect 2-0 in this series, winning with the Cubs on Monday and the Braves on Tuesday (passed on Wednesday's game). Make that 3-for3. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-19 | Rays v. Twins -105 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The first-place Minnesota Twins (AL Central) host the wild card-leading Tampa Bay Rays (two-game lead on the No. 2 wild card teams) in the middle contest of their three-game series. Minnesota owns an 8 1/2-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central, after a 9-4 victory in Tuesday's series opener. Minnesota owns MLB's highest scoring team (5.76 RPG) plus also leads all MLB teams in BA (.273), OPS (.843) and HRs (149). The Rays own MLB's second-lowest team ERA (3.32) and did own MLB's best road (at 23-10) prior to the team's current road trip. However, The Rays have stumbled to a 2-6 record on a 10-game road trip vs the NY Yankees, Oakland and now, Minnesota. Tonight's pitching matchup is gem, as Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31 will square off against ERA) vs Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA). Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. The Rays won 10 of Morton's first 14 starts, during which he went 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. However, Tampa Bay has lost each of his last two starts, a stretch in which Morton has allowed five ERs five runs over 12.1 innings. Prior to his last two starts, Morton had won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA. Odorizzi is a former Tampa Bay Ray and is tied for the AL lead in wins with Justin Verlander and Lucas Giolito. Odorizzi was 10-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his previous 11 starts before losing 4-1 at Kansas City on Thursday. He also faced the Royals in his previous start (6 IP / 4 ERs) but received enough run support in a 5-4 victory on June 15. The Twins lost Odorizzi's first three starts of 2019 but had won all 11 of Odorizzi's starts from April 17 through June 15, before losing last Thursday Morton vs Odorrizi is a 'push' but while the Rays are just 4-10 in their last 14 contest, while averaging only 3.79 RPG (note; Tampa Bay has trailed in 13 of them!). Meanwhile, MLB's best offensive team is 39-20 (.661) against right-handers in 2019, including 24-12 (.667) in night games. How can this game be pick'em? Good luck...Larry |
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06-26-19 | A's v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 7:15 ET. The Oakland A's won 7-3 Tuesday night in St Louis. It gives them 13 wins in their last 17 road games, after opening the 2019 season just 5-15 away from home. Oakland is still EIGHT games back of Houston in the AL West but the 42-38 A's are only 1 1/2 games behind the three teams that are in a virtual tie for the AL's second wild card spot. Three Oakland players homered and Khris Davis added a two-run double as a pinch hitter. The A's had 10 hits, as did the Cards, but St Louis went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position. Despite the loss, the 40-38 Cards are a modest 2 1/2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and only a half-game out of the NL's second wild card spot (currently held by the Phillies and Rockies). This two-game IL series concludes tonight with Daniel Mengden taking on Adam Wainwright (5-6, 4.50. Mengden gets the start because Frankie Montas (9-2, 2.70 ERA / 11-4 in team starts) was suspended 80 games for testing positive for PEDs. Mengden has made five appearances (three starts) in 2019. His most recent big league outing was back on June 5, when he allowed six runs on six hits in 2.1 innings of relief against the Los Angeles Angels. He was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas on June 6 and has posted a 6.10 ERA in two Triple-A games. Wainwright will become the FIFTH player to make 300 starts with St.Louis and the first since Bob Forsch hit the mark in 1983. He went 11-3 back in 2008 but then won 19 or 20 games in FOUR of his next five seasons (missed all of 2011). He's never quite regained his form from that stretch but returned from the injured list last Thursday and received a no-decision after giving up three runs in 5.1 innings against Miami (Cards lost 7-6 in 11 innings). The vet has been awful on the road (6.56 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in seven starts) but here in St Louis, has been VERY good. Wainwright has allowed three ERs or less in all SEVEN of his home starts, posting a 2.86 ERA at Busch Stadium. Yes, Oakland's on a roll away from home but Mengden is getting the spot start ONLY because of the Montas suspension. He's proven pretty conclusively that he's "not ready from primetime." Meanwhile, Wainwright CAN be trusted at home and I'm backing the vet. Good luck...Larry . |
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06-26-19 | Rangers -102 v. Tigers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Tex Rangers at 7:10 ET. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 43-36 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play since mid-May. Texas currently is in a three-way tie for the second AL wild card position (with Cleveland and Boston), two games back of the No. 1 wild card (Tampa Bay). The Rangers took the opener of their three-game series at Detroit with the Tigers on Tuesday, winning 5-3. Texas improved to 10-6 on the road since the middle of May, after beginning 5-15 away from home. Jesse Chavez and three relievers held the Tigers to just six hits last night, sending 26-48 Detroit to its FIFTH straight loss.Detroit sits 23 games back in the AL Central and 14 1/2 games back of the second-place wild card team. Two lefties square off tonight, Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52 ERA) of Texas and Matthew Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA) of Detroit. Minor is a former first-round pick who made 65 relief appearances for KC in 2017 but the Rangers put him back in the starting rotation in 2018. He made 28 starts last year, going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA. Here in 2019, he's been the team's best starter. His outstanding first half continued with eight solid innings in a win over Cleveland this past Thursday, which left him 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four June starts (Rangers are 4-0). Minor allowed SIX runs in his 2019 opener but has since allowed three ERs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts (current streak is 11 in a row, allowing three ERs runs or less). Boyd's season is headed in the opposite direction of Minor's. Boyd opened by allowing three ERs or less in 13 of his first 14 starts but enters this contest winless in four June starts. He gave up FIVE runs over six innings at Cleveland on Friday in a 7-6 loss, while serving up a career high-tying three HRs. He has allowed six HRs over his last three starts, going 0-1 (team is 0-4) in June with an ERA of 6.14. Minor is 0-2 with a 7.24 in his only two career starts vs the Tigers but that's balanced by the fact that Boyd is 1-5 with a 6.54 ERA in six career starts vs the Rangers. What's more, while the Rangers are 26-14 overall since May 15 and are unbeaten in their last eight series (5-0-3), the Tigers are 8-28 since May 13 (note: Detroit was just two games under .500 at 18-20 in games played through May 12). Detroit has lost FIVE straight at home, having gone 2-17 (that's an 89% "go-against") at Comerica" since May 13. Repeating, the Rangers have won Minor's last FOUR starts (1.93 ERA) while the Tigers have lost Boyd's last four (6.14 ERA). It's a "MISMATCH" all-around! Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -135 | 7-3 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. The 41-38 Oakland A's and the 40-37 St Louis Cardinals are both third-place teams as they get set to meet in St Louis for a brief two-game interleague series. Both teams lost on Sunday but the Athletics have shaved four games off their gap in the AL West over the past couple of weeks (A's sit eight games back of the Houston Astros). As for the Cardinals, despite a Sunday loss to the Angels, St Louis has won nine of 13 to reduce its deficit in the NL Central to 2 1/2 games. Chris Bassitt (4-3, 3.64 ERA) will get the nod for for Oakland and Jack Flaherty (4-4, 4.24 ERA) for St Louis. Bassitt earned a win with 5.2 innings of two-run ball against Baltimore on Wednesday, striking out six and yielding a season low-tying two hits in an 8-3 win. The A's are 5-6 in Bassitt's 11 starts in 2019, after he entered the season 4-14 (3.86 ERA) his first four seasons over 40 appearances (30 starts). Flaherty took the loss in his last start (6-0), despite allowing a modest three runs and four hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts. Let's take a closer look at this pitching matchup of third-place teams. Bassitt was solid in his last outing (see above) but he had a 5.88 ERA over his previous five starts prior to that start and he's 0-3 despite a 3.49 ERA in his interleague career. Flaherty has struggled in seven road starts in 2019 (6.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP) but in eight home starts he owns a 2.49 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and .185 BAA. The A's are just 27-31 vs right-handed starers this season, while the Cards are 20-12 at home vs righties. Cards are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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06-25-19 | Braves -115 v. Cubs | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Atl Braves at 8:05 ET. The Braves opened a four-game series at Wrigley last night with an 8-3 loss to the Cubs. Atlanta entered Monday's contest 16-5 in June, buoyed by a bullpen that was 9-1 with a 2.31 ERA this month (seven saves). Atlanta's bullpen did its job last night (one run allowed in four innings) but starter Julio Tehran was ripped for SEVEN runs in the game's first four innings. Willson Contreras went 2-for-4 with a HR and three RBI in Monday's 8-3 win for the Cubs, who won for just the SIXTH time their last 14 games. The 43-35 Cubs are clinging to a one-game lead in the NL Central (over Milwaukee), while the 46-33 Braves own a 5 1/2 game lead in the NL East (over Philadelphia). The series continues tonight with Max Fried (8-3, 4.03 ERA) taking on Adbert Alzolay (1-0, 2.25 ERA). Fried was winless during a four-start stretch before beating the New York Mets in his last outing, allowing two runs on eight hits over six innings of a 7-2 victory. The win ended a four-start stretch in which Fried allowed 17 ERs and 31 hits over 20.2 innings for a 7.40 ERA. The lefty entered that stretch with a 2.88 ERA but even during those struggles, the Braves won THREE of the four contests. Fried's "opposite number" will be rookie Adbert Alzola. Alzolay was impressive in four-plus innings of relief in his major-league debut this past Thursday against the Mets (4 IP / 1 ER) and picked up a win in relief. The 55-pitch outing has the Cubs convinced that he's ready to make his first major-league start. Alzolay signed as a 17-year-old non-drafted free agent in 2012 and has battled back from a 2018 season that was cut short because of a lat injury. He was 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA, striking out 46 and walking only six over 32 innings in six starts this season with Triple-A Iowa Atlanta's played MUCH better in June than Chicago and Fried has been a consistent money-maker, as Atlanta is 11-4 (+$596 mark ranks 14th among all starters) in his 15 starts, including 6-1 on the road. I did play Chicago last night noting the team's great home record in night games (now 17-4) but let me add that just TWO of those 17 wins have come against left-handed starters. I'm backing the Braves (and their lefty starter) in this one. Cubs lose! Cubs lose! Good luck...Larry |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -128 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Atlanta bullpen is 9-1 with a 2.31 ERA in June (seven saves), helping Atlanta improve to 16-5 this month and move to 46-32 on the season. Atlanta has extended its NL East lead to 6 1/2 games over the 2nd-place Phillies. The Cubs rallied for a 5-3 victory on Sunday, giving them a split of the four-game weekend series at home. The Cubs are just 5-8 over their last 13 games but still own a half-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central (Cards lurk two games back). The Braves have reached double-digit runs six times in June, including five games in which they scored at least 12 runs. Atlanta opens a four-game series at Wrigley tonight against a Chicago team which is 27-14 at home, while outscoring the opposition 4.78-to-3.68 RPG. Julio Teheran (5-5, 3.40 ERA) will get the ball for Atlanta on Monday, opposed by Chicago's Jon Lester (6-5, 4.13 ERA). Teheran took the mound last Tuesday at home vs the Mets off an eight-start stretch in which he allowed just four ERs across 44.2 innings to post an 0.81 ERA (team was 7-1). However, Teheran suffered his worst start of the season, allowing six runs on eight hits with three walks over four innings of a 10-2 loss. Will Teheran bounce back? A good omen is that he is 3-1 in nine lifetime starts against the Cubs with a 3.29 ERA with the Braves going 8-1! The veteran Lester beat the White Sox 7-3 on Wednesday, striking out six while allowing three runs on seven hits with one walk over 5.2 innings. However, after opening the 2019 season with a 1.16 ERA through his first seven starts (team went 5-2), he has surrendered 11 HRs while posting a 7.17 ERA and an opponents batting average of .325 in his last seven outings (Cubs are 3-4). Some good news for Chicago fans is that Lester is 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts against the Braves (teams are 8-2). The Braves are 'rolling' and except for his last start, Teheran has been nearly unhittable since the beginning of May. As for Lester's recent troubles, take a closer look. He's struggled on the road all season (5.82 ERA in six starts / team is 2-4) but here at Wrigley he's got a 2.32 ERA in eight starts (Cubs are 6-2). I noted above Chicago's 27-14 record at home (second-best home mark in the NL) and an 80% winning situation!) Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-19 | Mets v. Cubs -101 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. Pete Alonso hit his 26th HR in New York's 10-2 Saturday victory over the Cubs. The Mets have homered in 18 of 20 outings this month (team is just 9-11, though) and look to take THREE of four from the Cubs in the series finale today at Wrigley. The Cubs have now dropped EIGHT of their last 12 games but still own a half-game lead over the Brewers in the NL Central (St Louis is now just one back of Chicago). Sunday's finale features Jacob deGrom (4-6, 3.26 ERA) taking on Cole Hamels (6-2, 2.85 ERA). The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner will try to win back-to-back starts for the first time since opening the season 2-0 while pitching 13 scoreless innings with a 24-2 KW ratio. DeGrom ended a six-game winless streak Tuesday by holding Atlanta to two runs on five hits over a season-high 8.1 innings,. He's now recorded four straight quality starts (EIGHT in his last 10). That's some solid pitching but Cole Hamels owns a 0.31 ERA over four June starts. He's allowed just one ER over 29 innings (17 hits allowed), with a KW ratio of 31-6. The Cubs are 10-5 in Hamels' starts in 2019 (5-2 at home), as he's posted 2.85 ERA and .226 BAA on the season. DeGrom has typically suffered from a lack of run support and that has been no different in 2019. He's allowed two ERs or less in NINE of his last 10 starts, yet the Mets are just 3-7 in that 10-start stretch. He is 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs but at Wrigley Field he is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three outings. The Cubs lost yesterday but are 26-14 at home on the season (outscoring opponents 4.78-to-3.70 RPG), including going 22-12 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Mets are a poor road team (17-26) and an even a closer look reveals that after a 7-1 start away from Citi Field, they are 10-25 since. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-23-19 | Astros -118 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* AL Game of the Month is on the Hou Astros at 2:05 ET. The New York Yankees have homered in 25 straight contests, tying the franchise record set in 1941 and moving within two games of matching the major-league record set by Texas in 2002, after hitting two HRs in Saturday's 7-5 victory. The win was New York's EIGHTH in a row (that's a season-high), moving the Yankees 5 1/2 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East (defending champion Red Sox are eight games back). Houston has now lost a season-high SEVEN in a row but at 48-30, still owns a 6 1/2 game lead in the AL West. The Yanks look to complete a four-game sweep Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) will take the mound for Houston and J.A. Happ (7-3, 4.59 ERA) for New York. Verlander was 9-2 with a 2.16 ERA over his first 13 starts of the season (teams was 10-3) but he is 0-1 with a 4.43 ERA in his last three (Astros are 1-2). Verlander is 7-7 with a 3.54 ERA in 21 regular-season starts against the Yankees but Including two wins over the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS, is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last six starts against New York. Happ pitched into the sixth inning just once in his first four starts of 2019 (posting a 7.23 ERA) but he's allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of his last 11 starts (Yanks are 9-2). In fact, Happ is 6-0 with a 4.29 ERA in his last eight starts (Yanks are 7-1) and today marks his 300th career start. The Yankees are outscoring opponents 60-23 while batting .289 with 17 HRs in their eight-game winning streak, while the Astros are on their longest skid since also dropping seven straight from June 4-10, 2015. Houston has scored 12 runs and produced 30 hits in the first three games of this series but have negated those totals by going 4-for-30 with RISP. Houston is 16-6 vs lefties on the season and while the Yanks have won SEVEN of Happ's last eight starts, he does own a not-so-impressive 4.29 ERA in that stretch. Verlander has not been sharp in his last two outings but prior to that, he had given up five hits or less in 11 straight starts. Verlander is the very definition of a "stopper" and that's exactly what I expect him to do right here. Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-19 | Braves v. Nationals -114 | 13-9 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 7:15 ET. The Washington Nationals were considered one of MLB's bigger (biggest?) disappointments through 2019's first two months (Nats stood 19-31 on the morning of May 24). However, the Nats won 4-3 last night at home over the Braves, giving them their 18th win in 25 contests to pull within 6 1/2 games of first-place Atlanta in the NL East. Washington's Juan Soto finished 2-for-3 with a double and a run scored in Friday’s victory to raise his batting average to .376 with 10 doubles, five HR, 19 RBI and 27 runs scored since May 17, when he was hitting just .228. Atlanta lost for just the FIFTH time in 17 road games and dropped to 14-5 in June, despite getting its major league-leading 40th homer this month, as rookie Austin Riley hit his 12th in 34 contests this season. Freddie Freeman tied a team record by recording an RBI in his NINTH consecutive game. Mike Foltynewicz (2-5, 5.53 ERA) will get the nod for Atlanta and Anibal Sanchez (3-6, 3.84 ERA) for Washington. Foltynewicz was 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018, finishing eighth in the NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he pitched just two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. After posting a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, he made his season debut on April 27. Foltynewicz continues to battle command issues after an early season marred by injury and sub-par performances. He checks in with just TWO wins in 10 starts (team is 3-7). He is 5-4 with a 4.02 ERA in 11 career starts against the Nationals (Braves are 6-5). Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he left the Braves to sign a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.27 ERA through nine starts (Nats were 3-6) and had to leave in the second inning of a May 16 start against the New York Mets due to a hamstring injury (Nats would win, 7-6). Sanchez came off the injured list on May 29 and promptly carried a perfect game into the sixth inning at Atlanta that night, allowing one run and one hit with seven strikeouts in six innings. He take steh mound tonight having gone 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA and an 18-3 KW ratio over 23/1 innings in four starts (team is 4-0). Atlanta has been solid but the Nats have won 18 of their last 25 and the pitching edge SURELY favors Washington. Foltynewicz is nowhere near his 2018 form and as noted, Sanchez has DOMINATED since coming off the DL (note: opponents are hitting just .183 against him his last four starts!). Nats win again! Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-19 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Goin' Over Total is on SD/Pit Over at 4:05 ET. Jose Osuna delivered a tiebreaking single in the eighth inning to lift Pittsburgh to a 2-1 victory over San Diego last night, snapping the Padres' four-game winning streak. The win gave the Pirates back-to-back victories for only the SECOND time this month and Pittsburgh will be seeking its longest winning streak in Saturday's game, since taking three straight from the San Diego Padres back on May 17-19. The Pirates also can make it FIVE in a row over the visiting Padres when the teams resume their three-game series Saturday afternoon at PNC Park. Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA) gets the start for San Diego and Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Paddack missed the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched limited innings in the minors last year. However, he was healthy at the start of 2019 and the Padres expected big things from him. Why not? In 37 career appearances in the minor leagues, he had a 1.82 ERA with 230 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 177.2 innings. He was good as advertised in his first seven major league starts, going 3-1 (team was 6-1) with a 1.55 ERA and 46-10 KW ratio (18 hits allowed in 40.2 innings). However, he is 0-2 in his last three starts (SD is 0-3), allowing 13 runs (12 earned) and failing to pitch beyond five innings in each (7.36 ERA). Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's starting rotation and Archer missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation. Archer was an "underachiever" with the Rays and has followed that theme here with Pittsburgh. He hasn't found his form consistently since coming off the injured list in mid-May and he is 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA in his seven starts since May 15. Extending further back, he has given up 15 HRs over his last nine starts and owns that 5.85 ERA on heh season, along witha 1.52 WHIP. The Padres are averaging 6.7 RPG in 13 road day games vs righties in 2019 plus had averaged 10.29 RPG in their previous seven games prior to last night. There is no reason to feel that San Diego WON'T get to Archer. As for Pittsburgh, the Pirates have averaged 6.4 RPG in 11 home days games vs right-handers and should continue Paddack's recent troubles. I'll also note that Pittsburgh has won FIVE in a row over San Diego, so the play here is O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -138 | 10-2 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. New York's Jeff McNeil had a two-run HR and the go-ahead RBI single in Friday's 5-4 win over the Chicago Cubs. He is 9-for-18 with two HRs, four RBI and six runs scored during a four-game hitting streak that has pushed his batting average to .341. The Cubs beat the Mets 7-4 in Thursday's opener of the four-game series but Addison Russell's two-run HR was not enough fo Chicago last night. The 41-34 Cubs had won EIGHT of their previous 10 at Wrigley Field but remain 1 1/2 games up on the Brewwrs in the NL Central, while the Cards lurk two games back. The 36-40 Mets find themselves fourth in the NL East, eight games out of first-place Zack Wheeler (5-5, 4.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets and Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.87 ERA) for the Cubs. Wheeler seemed to be finding his 'sea legs' in a four-start stretch from May 21 to June 6, in which he lasted at least seven innings in each outing, going 2-0 (team was 4-0) with a 4.13 ERA. However, he's lost his last two starts, allowing 20 hits and nine ERs over 10.2 innings for a 7.59 ERA. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs The left-handed Quintana has not earned a win in any of his last EIGHT starts. He is 0-5 with a 4.30 ERA since earning the victory against the St Louis Cardinals back on May 5 (team is just 1-7 ). However, let me note that after allowing EIGHT runs in his first start of 2019, Quintana has allowed three ERs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts. He deserves better. Also, he's 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts against the Mets. The Cubs are 26-13 (67%) at home on the season (outscoring opponents 4.85-to-3.53 RPG), including going 22-11 (again, 67%) against right-handed starters. The Mets are a poor road team (16-26) but a closer look reveals that after a 7-1 start away from Citi Field, they are 9-25 since (that's a 74% "go-against"). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -123 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The Brewers returned to Milwaukee off a 2-6 road trip on Thursday and lost 7-1 to Cincinnati in the opening contest of a 10-game homestand. Christian Yelich is the reigning National League MVP and he can hardly be blamed for Milwaukee's woes, as he homered for the Brewers' lone run last night and has seven HRs, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored during his 17-game hitting streak (Yelich has a majors-best 28 HRs). Thursday's victory gave the Reds a season-high FIVE-game winning streak, the first time the team has accomplished that since June of last year). Sonny Gray (3-5, 3.77 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Chase Anderson (3-1, 4.05 ERA) for the Brewers. Gray was outstanding in his last start at Miller Park (May 21), as he scattered five hits and struck out nine over six innings of a 3-0 victory. The 29-year-old will enter this game 3-0 over his last six starts (3.31 ERA), with Cincy going 5-1. Anderson recorded his second straight no-decision last Sunday, allowing three runs and four walks over four innings against San Francisco. That outing leaves him 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in three June starts but the Brewers have won BOTH of his no-decisions (4.50 ERA). Gray began his career with Oakland but pitched for the Yankees for part of the 2017 season and all of 2018. Gray won 14 games in both 2014 and 2015 but he has since been a HUGE disappointment. He went 15-16 (4.51 ERA) in his one-plus seasons with the Yankees and was traded to Cincinnati on Jan 21. He has pitched well his last six outings but the Reds are just 7-7 in his 14 starts in 2019. Gray will face a Milwaukee team averaging 5.03 RPG at Miller Park and his Cincy team ranks 26th in team BA (.234), 24th in OPS (.715) and 23rd in scoring (4.29) RPG). The Reds did get seven runs last night against a right-handed starter but the Reds entered last night's contest just 10-16 vs righties on the road in 2019, averaging only 3.6 RPG. Anderson owns a 3.23 ERA in 11 career starts vs Cincinnati, going 5-2 while allowing only 46 hits in 58 innings. Cincy's five-game winning streak ends right here! Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals -184 | 7-6 | Loss | -184 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 7:15 ET. It's been an interesting series between the Marlins and Cardinals. St Louis won 5-0 on Monday, Miami won 6-0 on Tuesday and then St Louis won 2-1 in 11 innings last night. Both offenses have been feeble. Miami has been shut out 13 times this year and scored just one run in 11 innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored just TWO runs in their last 20 innings, including a walk-off HR by Paul Goldschmidt to beat Miami on Wednesday.The 38-35 Cards enter Thursday's contest with SEVEN wins in their last 10 contests and they currently sit just TWO games back in the NL Central. As for the 26-46 Marlins, they own the NL's worst record. Miami opened the month with FOUR straight wins from June 1 through June 5 but have now lost 10 of its last 13 games. The pitching matchup provides a stark contrast. Zac Gallen will be making his first major-league start for the Marlins, while veteran Adam Wainwright (5-6, 4.46 ERA) takes the mound for the Cardinals to make his 299th career start. Gallen begins his major-league career against the team that selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft before trading him in the deal involving Marcell Ozuna in December 2017 (he was one of four prospects the Marlins received when they traded for St Louis outfielder Marcell Ozuna). Gallen was 8-9 with a 3.65 ERA in 25 appearances with Triple-A New Orleans in 2018 but he's posted a 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts with New Orleans this year with 112 strikeouts in 91.1 innings. Gallen is getting his chance here, because starting pitcher Pablo Lopez was placed on the injured list due a strained pitching shoulder. Retirement rumors surrounded Wainwright after the 37-year-old was limited to eight starts which totaled just 40.1 innings last season. Wainwright is a the three-time All-Star and has finished in the top three in Cy Young Award voting four times. However, Wainwright has added pitches to his repertoire, as he tries to transition from a power pitcher to a more finesse approach. Wainwright returns to the rotation after missing 11 days with a hamstring injury. The vet has been mostly healthy this season (he's made 13 starts) and a closer look revels that he's really struggled on the road (1-5 with a 6.56 ERA in seven starts) but here at home, he's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts. This will be the first time Wainwright has faced the 2019 Marlins but over his career he is 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 12 appearances, including 10 starts (Cards are 8-2) vs Miami. A pitcher's major-league debut is always a 'crap-shoot' but what we do know is that Gallen will face a St Louis team looking to claim a THIRD straight series and one which has gotten back in the thick on things in the NL Central (Cubs, Brewers and Cards are all within two games of each other). Meanwhile, Gallen takes the mound for a team that ranks dead-last in all of MLB in scoring (3.43 RPG), OPS (.642) and HRs (53), while ranking 25th in team BA (.236). Take the vet over the 'rook.' Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140 | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres combined for the highest-scoring four-game series in modern history over the weekend (92 total runs) and the Rockies showed no signs of slowing down in Tuesday's 8-1 victory at Arizona. Leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon extended his on-base streak to 28 consecutive games with three hits last night, while Nolan Arenado homered and drove in three runs. Blackmon is the reigning NL Player of the Week, going 18-for-29 with four HRs, 10 RBI and 11 runs scored over his last five games. The Colorado victory moved the 38-34 Rockies moved into second place in the NL West, a game ahead of 38-36 Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 24-19 on the road but just 14-17 at Chase Field. The starting pitching matchup for Wednesday's game is Jon Gray (6-5, 4.38 ERA) for Colorado and Zack Greinke (8-2, 2.65 ERA) for Arizona. Gray got the win last Thursday against the Padres, after allowing four runs with 10 strikeouts over six innings, as Colorado won, 9-6. Gray takes the mound tonight, coming off his first career relief appearance after 103 career starts. Sunday was Gray's scheduled bullpen day but he entered with two outs and a runner on third in the ninth with the Rockies and Padres tied at 13. He intentionally walked the next two batters to load the bases and walked pinch hitter Matt Strahm (a pitcher!) to bring in the go-ahead run, as San Diego won 14-13! Gray is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA in nine career starts vs Arizona (Rockies are 5-4). Greinke had an extra day of rest after exiting his previous start with a sore neck when he took the mound at Toronto on June 8. It seemingly helped, as he scattered four hits over six innings in a 6-0 win over the Blue Jays. Greinke then took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and tossed 7.1 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory over Washington last Thursday. “I felt really good,” Greinke told reporters. “Everything was working, and things felt crisp. Most pitches I threw were coming out how I wanted them to. I felt good the whole time.” Greinke takes the mound tonight having produced quality starts in 13 of his 14 outings since an Opening Day start that saw him allow seven ERs over just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. Greinke is 12-6 with a 3.85 ERA in 32 career starts vs the Rockies (teams are 18-14). Looking close, we find that Gray owns a solid 3.47 ERA at Coors Field but a 5.06 ERA on the road. Greinke's ERA is similar home (2.48) and away (2.78) but he's 3-0 in six home starts with Arizona going 5-1. What's more is, excluding his awful Opening Day start (see above), he's got a 2.07 ERA in his last 14 starts, along with an 82-12 KW ratio while allowing 63 hits in 91.1 innings. Greinke 'cools off' those red-hot Colorado bats in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | White Sox v. Cubs -145 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My 7* 'Battle 4 Chicago' is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. Eloy Jimenez hit a two-run HR in the top of the ninth to give the White Sox a 3-1 win over the Cubs last night at Wrigley Field. Jimenez was one of four prospects obtained when the White Sox traded Jose Quintana to the Cubs in July 2017. The 35-36 White Sox are 12 1/2 games out of 1st in the AL Central, while the Cubs are 39-33, just a half-game back in the NL Central. The crosstown rivals cap a brief two-game set on tonight, with the White Sox looking to complete a two-game sweep of the host Cubs. Lucas Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox, while Jon Lester (5-5, 4.08 ERA) will take the mound for the Cubs. Giolito became a regular in the starting rotation in 2018 but was just 10-13 with a 'ugly' 6.13 ERA in 32 starts (team was 14-18). However, what a difference a year makes! Giolito will be looking to win his NINTH straight start on Wednesday. He has posted a spectacular 0.94 ERA during his eight-start winning streak and has recorded 65 strikeouts over 57.1 innings. He has allowed fewer than two runs in SEVEN of the outings and given up five or fewer hits in ALL eight starts. The White Sox are 11-2 in his 13 starts in 2019, giving him MLB's top moneyline mark at plus-$1,155. The veteran Lester has had an up-and-down season. He served up a season-worst three HRs and gave up six runs on nine hits over five innings in a 7-3 loss at the Dodgers last Thursday. He has now allowed four or more ERs in FIVE of his last six outings, going 2-4 with a 7.59 ERA. However, Lester opened the season allowing just five ERs over his first seven starts (1.16 ERA). Lester is 9-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 17 career starts against the White Sox (teams are 11-6). Can Giolito really be this good? He has struggled in his two career starts vs the Cubs, posting a 5.84 ERA. He will take on a Cubs team which is 24-12 at Wrigley (outscoring opponents 4.75-to-3.50 RPG), including going 12-4 vs right-handers in night games (5.5 RPG). Lester has had trouble on the road (5.82 ERA) but at home he owns a 2.45 ERA with the Cubs going 5-2. I'm on the vet over the 'overachieving' youngster. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | Brewers +101 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Mil Brewers at 3:40 ET. The San Diego Padres beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-1 Tuesday night, climbing back to .500 at 37-37. Meanwhile the Brewers fell to 2-5 on their eight-game road trip, although at 40-33, they maintain a half-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. Wednesday afternoon's game caps a short three-game homestand for the Padres, who have won three in row after losing SIX of their previous seven contests. The Brewers were shut out on four hits Monday night and Milwaukee ran its scoreless innings streak to 16 straight innings against the Padres on Tuesday, before scoring once in the eighth inning on a walk, two ground outs and a wild pitch. The Brewers were shut out for just the third time this season on Monday and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position on Tuesday. Zach Davies (7-1, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Matt Strahm (2-6, 4.66 ERA) gets the nod for San Diego. Davies was 17-9 in 2017 but shoulder injuries limited him to just 13 starts in 2018 (2-7, 4.77 ERA). However, he opened this season with a 1.38 ERA over his first six outings and is working on the finest season of his career in 2019. Davies will be making his 15th start of the season Wednesday afternoon and while he did suffer his first loss of the season in his most recent outing (gave up three runs on six hits and a walk in five innings in a 5-3 loss at San Francisco last Friday), Davies became the first starter in Brewers history to win each of his first seven decisions in a season. Milwaukee is 9-5 in Davies' starts this season. Strahm was activated off the 10-day injured list after recovering from a left rib strain last Thursday and was hammered at Coors Field by the Rockies, allowing six runs on seven hits over just 3.1 innings in a 9-6 loss to Colorado. He takes the mound today, having lost three straight decisions while giving up 16 ERs on 18 hits and seven walks with 19 strikeouts over 13.2 innings for a 10.54 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. Strahm will be making his first career start versus Milwaukee Hard to see the Milwaukee offense being held in check for a THIRD straight time, especially with Strahm's current record. As for Davies, expect him to get back in the "W' column, as he's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts vs the Padres (Brewers are 4-0). Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers +115 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The 38-33 Texas Rangers suffered an 11-3 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday to drop to 14-21 on the road in 2019 but they had been dominant at home (24-12) as they got set to open a seven-game homestand against Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Cleveland Indians completed a three-game sweep at Detroit with an 8-0 victory on Sunday, winning for the EIGHTH time in 11 contests. The sweep gave the Indians a 37-33 mark and while they were still 10 games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central, their recent surge allowed them to climb to within a half-game of the Texas Rangers for the AL's second wild card spot. That set the stage for the first of a three-game series Monday night. Danny Santana recorded two hits for the third straight game for Texas, including a two-run HR in Monday’s 7-2 triumph, as the Rangers improved to 25-12 at Globe Life Park), while the Indians fell to 37-34. Carlos Santana brings a 12-game hitting streak (13-for-45) into Tuesday’s contest while Francisco Lindor is 21-for-59 with four HRs this month for the Indians, who are just 17-17 on the road. The Indians send Zach Plesac 1-2, 2.92 ERA) to the mound Tuesday night, while the Rangers counter with Adrian Sampson ( (5-3, 4.21 ERA). Plesac is coming off his worst start in the majors. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings of a 7-2 loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday, after allowing a total of just FOUR runs over 19.1 innings in his first three major-league starts (1.86 ERA). Plesac surrendering three HRs to Cincinnati on Wednesday and has allowed five HRs in four starts (24.1 innings). Sampson is coming off a poor outing as well, giving up six runs on seven hits (including four HRs!) over five innings in a no-decision at Boston last Thursday (Red Sox won, 7-6). That outing saw his five-game winning streak end. Sampson had come in after an "Opener" in the first three contests of his winning streak, then won back-to-back starts over KC (5-1) and Oakland (3-1). His June 8 win over Oakland was a complete-game triumph. During Sampson's winning streak, he allowed seven ERs over 31.2 innings for a 1.99 ERA. That streak came to a crashing halt last Thursday but note that it came against the Red Sox, who are currently on a six-game winning streak, averaging 6.8 RPG. Note that it also came on the road. Here at home, Sampson owns a 2.70 ERA in eight home appearances and in five home starts and two more 5.1-inning outings following an "opener," the Indians are 6-1! The Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 39-33 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play over the last month. Texas is 22-11 over its last 33 games and has gone 15-6 at home its last 21, entering this series with Cleveland having won FIVE of its last six home series, while splitting (2-2) the sixth. I noted above that the Indians are just 17-17 on the road and will add that Texas is now 25-12 at home (averaging 5.86 RPG), including 18-10 vs righties, averaging 6.0 RPG. Why is Cleveland the road fave? Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-19 | Red Sox v. Twins -136 | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Boston Red Sox are the defending champs but since opening the season by going 2-8 on a 10-game road trip, Boston has been playing "catch-up." The Red Sox are currently 39-34, 5 1/2 games out of first in the AL East but just a single percentage point behind the 38-33 Texas Rangers (.535 to .534) for the AL's second wild card spot (note: three more teams are with 3 1/2 games of Boston). In contrast, the Twins have been at or near the top of the MLB 'world' for most of the season. Minnesota opens this three-game series with MLB's best record (47-23), mere percentage points ahead of the 48-24 Astros and Dodgers (note: The Twins own a 10-game lead in the AL Central). Rick Porcello (4-6, 4.69 ERA) will get the nod for Boston and Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.01 ERA) for Minnesota. Porcello won the AL's Cy Young award in 2016 (22-4, 3.15 ERA) but then flopped in 2017, going 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA. He rebounded for LY's champs, going 17-7 (despite a poor 4.28 ERA) but here in 2019, sits 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 14 starts (team is 4-0 in his no-decisions). Porcello ha started 31 times vs the Twins in his career, going 12-10 with a 3.83 ERA (teams are 16-15). Berrios (8-2, 3.01 ERA) has teamed with Jake Odorizzi (10-2, 2.24 ERA) to give the Twins quite a 1-2 'punch' at the top of the rotation. He is looking for his FIFTH straight quality start, after allowing just seven hits and one run (on a solo HR) over 6.2 innings without factoring in the decision last Wednesday against Seattle. Berrios owns an 84-17 KW ratio over 89.2 innings, with opponents batting .238 against him. The Twins are 11-3 in Berrios' 14 starts (+$673, MLB's 7th-best mark among starters) and are 23-11 at Target Field in 2019, outscoring opponents 5.24-to-3.59 RPG. Meanwhile, Porcello owns a 6.37 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a BAA of .315 in six road starts in 2019. He will face a Minnesota lineup which ranks 1st in runs (5.96 per), team BA (.275), OPS (.857) and HRs (137). The Twins not only own MLB's best record, they also own its best moneyline mark at plus-$2128 (a rare 'daily double'). In contrast, the Red Sox, despite being five games over .500, rank 26th of 30 teams against the moneyline (minus-$1,283). Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +121 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog Game of the Month (AL) is on the the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Cleveland Indians completed a three-game sweep at Detroit with an 8-0 victory on Sunday, winning for the EIGHTH time in 11 contests. The 37-33 Indians are still 10 games back of the first-place Twins (47-23) in the AL Central but the team's recent surge has them within a half-game of the Texas Rangers for the AL's second wild card spot. The 38-33 Rangers suffered an 11-3 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday to drop to 14-21 on the road in 2019 but they have been dominant at home (24-12) as they get set to open a seven-game homestand against Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the nod for the Indians and will be opposed by Lance Lynn (7-4, 4.40 ERA). Clevinger went 12-6 (3.11 ERA) in 2017 (team was 14-7 in his 21 starts) and then 13-8 (3.02 ERA) in 32 starts last season (team was just 16-16). He opened the 2019 season by pitching 12 scoreless innings with a 22-4 KW ratio (1-0 / team 2-0) but suffered a strained muscle in his upper back during that second start of the season. He returns to the mound for the first time since April 7. Clevinger is 0-1 with a 2.42 ERA in five career outings (three starts / Indians are 0-3) against Texas. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three ERS or less in 11 of his 14 starts this season. The vet attempts to post his EIGHTH straight quality start tonight, having posted a 1.99 ERA and 3-2 record over his last seven outings. Lynn has faced the Indians just twice in his career but he's 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA! Obviously, the Indians are playing well but Clevinnger has to be considered a question mark in his first major league start since April 7. As for Texas, the Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 38-33 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play over the last month (see above). Texas is 21-11 over its last 32 games and has gone 14-6 at home its last 20, winning FIVE of its last six home series, while splitting (2-2) the sixth. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-19 | Brewers -141 v. Giants | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 4:05 ET. The San Francisco Giants were off on Monday but then swept a brief two-game home series agianststhe Padres on Tuesday and Wednesday. It was another off day on Thursday, before the Giants claimed the first two matchups of their three-game home series with the Brewers on Friday and Saturday. San Francisco erased an early 4-0 deficit Saturday afternoon, rallying for an 8-7 triumph which gives them a season-high four-game winning streak. The Giants go for the three-game sweep on Sunday, as the Brewers continue their current eight-game road trip, after opening just 1-3. Chase Anderson (3-1, 3.80 ERA) gets the ball for Milwaukee, opposed by San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija (3-5, 3.72 ERA). Anderson opened the season with five relief appearances, then made a couple of starts (both Milwaukee wins), before going on the DL. He has been solid since returning to the rotation and in his last outing, limited Pittsburgh to two runs on four hits with six strikeouts over six solid innings of a 5-2 Milwaukee win. It was his longest start of the year. He's posted a solid 3.58 ERA in his seven starts of 2019. Samardzija lost for the FOURTH time in his last five starts in his last outing, giving up three runs over 5.1 innings of a 7-2 home loss against the Dodgers on June 8. He does own a 2.53 ERA in six home starts this year, while limiting opponents to a .216 average in those outings, but he's just 1-1 and the team 3-3. The bottom line is, Samardzija has been a career "underachiever." Speaking of underachieving, let me add here that Samardzija is 1-5 with a 4.18 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers, which is an 86% "go-against." That's MORE than just "underachieving." He'll face a Milwaukee team here that is 12-5 vs right-handers in day game in 2019, averaging 5.4 RPG. Meanwhile, Anderson takes on a San Francisco lineup which was just 3-8 in home day games vs righties (averaging 3.0 RPG), before Saturday's 8-7 win over Jeff Nelson, who was making just his second big league appearance since September of 2017. The fact that Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco, adds even more confidence in my play. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -145 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Padres and Rockies will conclude a four-game series at Coors Field in Denver on Sunday afternoon. It's been quite an 'explosive' series, with the Rockies opening with a 9-6 win on Thursday, the Padres rebounding with a 16-12 win on Friday (note: San Diego trailed 11-5 entering the ninth inning and tied it to force extra innings, then scored five more in the 12th to win 16-12) and then Colorado won last night, 14-8. The teams have combined for 65 runs on 97 hits (including 13 HRs) and 24 walks. With this backdrop, a pair of rookie pitchers face the daunting task of slowing down this offensive assault on Coors Field. Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.02 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and Peter Lambert (2-0, 1.50 ERA) for Colorado. Margevicius made his major league debut on March 30 in a 3-2 loss to San Francisco. He got his first big-league win 11 days later against the Giants (3-1) and through his first three starts was 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA (team was 2-1). However, he's 1-5 in his last eight starts. Margevicius had allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in 12 innings across three starts before he threw 3.2 shutout innings against Washington on June 7 (Padres won ). He takes the mound today 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA over his last six starts and has NEVER pitched more than SIX innings in a big-league game. Lambert was a second-round pick in 2015 and was 26-29 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 97 minor league starts.However, he allowed just ONE run in each of his first two major league starts (both against the Cubs) , allowing seven hits and three walks while striking out 12 over 12 innings in a 10-3 win Tuesday and a 3-1 victory at Chicago on June 6. Here's the take on Lambert from catcher Chris Iannetta. "He has great stuff. The curveball is really good. The changeup's a plus changeup. His fastball command is plus when he has it. He understands that executing pitches is the way he's going to be successful, and he reverts back to that instead of trying to out-stuff guys. He's pretty cerebral. He knows what he's trying to do out there. And he has a really good understanding of his body and his mechanics. He has a plan of attack, and he has great command on top of that and that really helps." Lambert takes the mound behind a Colorado lineup that is 9-2 at home in day games, averaging 7.1 RPG. That's the same lineup Margevicius will have to tame. Do we have any insight on how he will fair? Just maybe, as Margevicius has faced Colorado twice in 2019, allowing five ERs over four innings at San Diego on April 16 in an 8-2 loss and then five more ERs at Colorado (over five innings) in a 10-7 loss on May 12. That's 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA. Which team do you want today? Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-19 | Phillies -110 v. Braves | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET. The Phillies and Braves opened the 2019 season with a three-game series in Philadelphia, with the Phillies sweeping the Braves and outscoring them 23-11. The two teams had not met since but opened a three-game series Friday in Atlanta, with the Braves holding a 1 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings over the Phillies. In the first matchup between the top-two teams in the NL East in 75 days, the Braves rallied from deficits of 6-2 and 8-4 to win for the FOURTH time this season when trailing after eight innings. Atlanta scored TWICE in the eighth and THREE times in the ninth to win, 9-8. Atlanta has now won 23 of its last 32 games to extend its lead to 2 1/2 games over Philadelphia in the NL East. The crushing loss for Philly gives them NINE losses over the team's last 14 games. Saturday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) and Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA). Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola posted a poor 5.68 ERA in April but excelled in May by going 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts (Phils were a PERFECT 6-0!), while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He lost his first start of June (it's his LONE loss of 2019!), by allowing SIX runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings (8-2 at San Diego) on June 3 but rebounded to hold Cincinnati to three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings this past Sunday in a no-decision. Newcomb started 30 games for Atlanta in 2018, going 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA (team was 15-15 in his starts, +$17). The 26-year-old posted a 4.38 ERA in three starts before being demoted to the minors but since returning he's been used as a reliever, posting a 1.42 ERA with a 21-2 KW ratio in 16 appearances over 19 innings. Newcomb replaced Gausman on Monday against Pittsburgh, earning the win in Atlanta's 13-7 victory, allowing just one hit with no walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings. He returns to the rotation tonight, taking over for the injured Kevin Gausman (right plantar fasciitis). However, he may not be there long as newly signed Dallas Keuchel could join Atlanta next weekend at Washington. The Braves' 'miracle' win last night gives Atlanta its first eight-game win streak since May 17-25, 2013 but I say, "Enough is ENOUGH!" I have almost NO faith in Newcomb, who draws a tough mound opponent. Nola is 8-3 in 13 career starts against Atlanta, posting an impressive 2.05 ERA. He has more wins against the Braves than any other opponent and I expect career win No. 9 over the Braves to come tonight. Surely, "the Price is Right!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-19 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Run-Line Rout is on the TB Rays at 1:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays entered Friday night's home game with the LA Angels on a three-game losing streak and found themselves down 4-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth. However, the Rays scored NINE runs in the sixth and seventh innings, en route to a 9-4 win while going 8-for-16 with RISP. The victory, coupled with the Yankees' 10-2 loss at the White Sox, moved Tampa Bay a half-game ahead of New York in the AL East race. The Angels saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, despite Shohei Ohtani following up his cycle on Thursday with a hit and an RBI in his first two at-bats in Friday’s setback.Los Angeles is 34-36, leaving them 13 games back of Houston in the AL West. The Angels are all but eliminated in their division, so the rest of the season they will be playing for one of the AL's two wild card spots (good luck!) The teams meet for the third contest of this four-game set on Saturday afternoon, as rookie left-hander Jose Suarez (1-1, 4.35 ERA) takes on the veteran Charlie Morton (8-0, 2.10 ERA). Suarez has split his first two major-league starts. He was 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in five games (four starts) with Triple-A Salt Lake before being promoted to make his first ML start on June 2 at Seattle. Suarez allowed three runs on five hits over 5.2 innings in a 13-3 triumph in that one, before suffering a loss in his second major-league start this past Sunday when he allowed two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks over 4.2 innings at home against the Mariners, again (Seattle won 9-3). Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Speaking of the All Star game, Morton is making a case to start this year's game next month. He's won his last FOUR outings and hasn't lost in 14 starts in 2019 (he's 8-0 / team is 10-4). In fact, he has won 11 straight decisions dating back to last season. He takes the mound this afternoon, having pitched 14 scoreless innings in two June starts, posting a 15-2 KW ratio. Let's start with Suarez. He's clearly an "unknown commodity," after just two starts, with both coming against the AL West's worst team (Seattle is 30-43). He takes the mound here vs the Rays, who at 42-27 are one of four AL teams playing better than .600 baseball. As for Morton, I noted that he's pitched 14 scoreless innings in his two June starts and will add here that he's won FOUR straight starts, posting a 1.00 ERA and a .151 BAA in that span. Morton hasn't lost in 21 starts dating to a 3-2 defeat against the Seattle Mariners on Aug 11, when he was still with the Houston Astros. It's the longest unbeaten streak in the majors. Here in 2019, I noted that the Rays were 10-4 in is starts and will add that just ONE of the 10 wins have come by one run, with the Rays winning those 10 games by an averaged margin of 4.1 RPG. It also doesn't hurt that Morton's faced the Angels seven times in his career, with his teams winning SIX times! Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 10:15 ET. Milwaukee lost a 10-8 slugfest at Houston on Tuesday and then overcame 24 strikeouts to edge the Astros 6-3 in 14 innings on Wednesday (Mike Moustakas' two-run HR sealed the victory). Milwaukee had Thursday off and after facing the team with MLB's best record (Houston), the Brewers visit tSan Francisco for a three-game series with the 28-38 Giants, who reside in last place in the NL West (16 1/2 games back of the Dodgers). Milwaukee leads the NL with 121 HRs, while the Giants have just 60 HRs, ranking 14th of 15 NL teams. Zach Davies (7-0, 2.41 ERA) takes the mound in Friday's opener and he'll be opposed by Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16 ERA). Davies was 17-9 in 2017 but injuries limited him to just 13 starts in 2018 (2-7, 4.77 ERA). However, he's well on his way to the finest season of his career, as he's yet to lose in 13 starts (7-0 / team is 9-4). He is 4-0 in six home starts (Milwaukee is 5-1) but his home ERA (3.13) is 1.25 higher than his 1.88 ERA in seven road starts. Davies has only faced the Giants twice and although he's yet to win, he does own a 1.64 ERA in two starts vs.San Francisco. Drew Pomeranz took the mound last Friday against Kershaw and the Dodgers fighting to keep his spot in the rotation. He was coming off one of the worst outings of his career the previous Friday in Baltimore, allowing eight runs on six hits and two walks, while lasting just 1.1 innings. The veteran lefty had not reached the fourth inning in any of his previous FOUR starts, allowing 22 ERs on 25 hits over 10.1 innings for an astronomical 20.17 ERA. However, he turned in his most encouraging outing in over a month when he allowed three hits and struck out seven over five scoreless innings (SF won 2-1). That said, let's note that Pomeranz has gone six innings in just ONE of his 11 starts in 2019. Like Davies, Pomeranz has made just two starts against this opponent without a win but UNLIKE Davies, his ERA of 8.00 ERA in those two career starts against the Brewers are a far cry from Davies' 1.64 ERA vs the Giants. Also weighing heavily in Milwaukee's favor is the fact that the right-handed Davies will face a San Francisco lineup that is not only 28th in scoring at 3.29 RPG and 29th in team BA at .222 but also 8-13 in home games against righties, averaging a WOEFUL 2.9 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My NL 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs fell 7-3 in their series opener last night at Dodger Stadium, the team's THIRD club's loss in its four games. The Cubs fell to 14-19 on the road and to 38-30 overall, one game back of the Brewers in the NL Central. Los Angeles hit four HRs, upping its home record to 26-7 (outscoring opponents 5.73-to-3.39 RPG) and its overall record to 46-23 (tied with Houston for the ML lead), giving the Dodgers a 9 1/2 game lead in the NL West. Friday's pitching matchup features Kyle Hendricks (7-4, 3.00 ERA) and Rich Hill (3-1, 2.50 ERA). Hendricks was just 1-4 with a 5.33 ERA through five starts but has turned his season around. The right-hander is not just 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA over his last three starts (20-2 KW ratio in 22 innings) but he's won SIX consecutive decisions and has a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts going back to the start of May (Cubs are 7-1). Hendricks' "opposite number' is lefty Rich Hill. His season got off to a late start because of a knee injury but ever since allowing FIVE runs in his 2019 debut to Pittsburgh back on April 28 (note: LA won that game 7-6), he has NOT allowed more than three runs in any of his last SEVEN starts. Hill has won back-to-back starts to open June, allowing just two ERs over 12 innings (1.29 ERA). Hendricks is certainly pitching well but we must look closer. Most of his success has come at home, where in seven Wrigley starts he owns a 1.65 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. That compares to a 4.89 ERA in sis road starts with a 1.43 WHIP. He's just 2-2 in four career regular-season starts against the Dodgers with a 5.16 ERA, as the Dodgers have reached him for five HRs in 22.2 innings. Hendricks has a 6.52 ERA in two starts at Dodger Stadium, with his most recent start at Los Angeles coming on June 27 of last year when he gave up six runs on just eight hits in just 2.2 innings, easily his shortest of the season. What's more, Hendricks takes on an LA team which is a DOMINATING 19-3 at home vs righties in 2019 (that's an 86% winning situation!), averaging 6.6 RPG while earning a profit of $1,455 (at $100/game). The 39-year-old Hill has proven to be as energetic and competitive as anybody on the Dodgers' roster and the lefty will face a Chicago lineup which in 1-4 on the road vs lefties in night games, scoring only 2.4 RPG. LA is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Phillies and Braves opened the 2019 season with a three-game series in Philadelphia, with the Phillies sweeping the Braves and outscoring them 23-11. The two teams have not met since but open a three-game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Braves holding a 1 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings over the Phillies. We are still about a month away from the All Star break, so it's too early to put too much importance on this series but both clubs surely realize they are "the teams to beat" in the NL East. Nick Pivetta (4-1, 4.93 ERA) will get the ball for Philly and Max Fried (7-3, 3.75 ERA). Pivetta as optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in mid-April, after posting a 8.35 ERA his first four starts. However, since returning from the minors on May 28, Pivetta has bolstered Philadelphia’s rotation by going 2-0 in three starts with a 1.80 ERA and a .171 opponents batting average over 20 innings. More good news comes in the fact that Pivetta has made nine career starts against the Braves, going 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA (team is 7-2). Fried began 2019 with two relief stints but then recorded a 2.96 ERA over his first 10 starts of 2019 from April 4 through May 22 (Braves were 7-3). However, the 25-year-old had surrendered nine runs on 18 hits over 9.2 innings in two straight outings (8.38 ERA), before pitching well in a no-decision Sunday at Miami (Atl won 7-6), giving up three runs on six hits with one walk and seven strikeouts over six innings. Breaking the game down further, the Phils come in having lost EIGHT of their last 13 games, allowing five-plus runs SEVEN times in that span. In stark contrast, the Braves enter on a SEVEN-game winning streak, averaging SEVEN runs per game while reaching double-digits in hits SIX times.The Braves enter this contest averaging 5.4 RPG in home night games vs righties in 2019, while the Phils are 2-8 vs lefties on the road, including 1-6 (that's an 86% "go-against") in night games while averaging a pathetic 3.0 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -2.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. The Raptors were minutes away from securing Canada's first-ever NBA title Monday in Game 5 but three PERFECT three-pointers (talk about "nothing but net!"), two from Klay Thompson and one by Steph Curry, provided Golden St with a 9-2 finishing run to give the Warriors a 106-105 victory. It marked the first one-point Finals margin since 2007 and the Warriors became just the SIXTH team in NBA history to win an elimination game on the road. It's now Game 6 in Oakland but the Warriors still face this daunting NBA 'footnote.' Of the 34 teams that have led a Finals 3-1 like Toronto, 33 have gone on to win the championship. The only exception being the Warriors in 2016, when the Cavaliers rallied (with help of Draymond Green) to win in seven games. Kawhi Leonard scored 26 points in Game 5, including 10 straight in the late fourth quarter, allowing Toronto to open a 103-97 lead, that the Raptors couldn't hold. However, he did shoot only 9-of-24 from the floor, including 2 of 7 on threes. Starting guards Lowry and Green combined to shoot 1 of 10 from three-point range. KD returned in Game 5 for Golden St and made all three 3-point attempts, scoring 11 points in 12 minutes of play. However, he ruptured his Achilles tendon. Curry scored 31 and Thompson 26 for the Warriors plus center DeMarcus Cousins was a HUGE factor. He was going to receive diminished minutes in Game 5 but Durant's injury led to more court time and he turned out to be a key contributor, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds in 20 minutes. The home team is just 1-4 SU & ATS in the Finals but i just CAN'T pass up the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles in the its FINAL game at Oracle Arena (Warriors will move to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season). The game may come down to this simple stat. The team which shoots better from three-point range will win. The Raptors have outscored the Warriors 120-96 from beyond the arc in their three wins, while Warriors own a 99-57 advantage in points from 'long-range' in their two victories. With or without KD, I never thought we'd see the Warriors this small of a favorite in a home playoff game, no less a "must-win" one in the franchise's final home game on this court. See you Sunday in Toronto! Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -124 | 5-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Mets salvaged a split of their day-night doubleheader against the Yankees on Tuesday, with a 10-4 victory in Tuesday's nightcap (lost the first game 12-5). Rookie Pete Alonso belted a three-run HR (he owns a team-leading 22 HRs) in the first inning, while Carlos Gomez and J.D. Davis also homered. The Mets have won five of seven overall and boast a 19-11 mark at Citi Field, as they open a four-game series with the St Louis Cardinals. The Card lost 9-0 at Miami on Wednesday, falling to 2-4 on their 10-game road trip, leaving them 13-20 on the road in 2019. Thursday's pitching matchup features Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.08 ERA) vs Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.45 ERA). Flaherty has had a solid rookie season in 2018, going 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts. Here in 2019, he's pitched very well at home but has been a disaster on the road. Flaherty owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in seven home starts but has posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in six away starts. DeGrom was just 10-9 in 2018 but won last year's NL Cy Young award with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .196 BAA. He lacked run support last season and has had a similar issue in 2019, although his ERA is up to 3.45, his WHIP up to 1.15 and his BAA is .233. Here's the deal. The Cards are a poor road team (13-20), allowing 5.06 RPG. Flaherty's road numbers are 'ugly' and I'll add that hitters are batting .291 against him, as opposed to .188 batting at home. The Mets are a solid 19-11 at home, averaging 5.07 RPG. As for deGrom, a lackluster offense and leaky bullpen have done him no favors, as he received two runs or less of support in FIVE starts this season. Against Flaherty, that WILL change! The "situation" sets up perfectly for deGrom to earn a "W." That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Nationals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Arz D'backs at 7:05 ET. The Washington Nationals were getting close to the cellar of the NL East late last month but Washington has won 12 of its last 17 to climb to 31-36, lifting them 6 1/2 games up on last place Miami and moving to 7 1/2 games back of first place Atlanta. The Nats open a four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, the first contest of their 11-game homestand. The D'backs come to Washington for four games, which will conclude the team's 10-game road trip. Arizona has opened the trip 5-1, after Wednesday's 2-0 win at Philadelphia. Arizona is 36-33, which is 9 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West but the D'backs are just 2 1/2 games out of the second NL wild card spot. Thursday's pitching matchup features Zack Greinke (7-2, 2.87 ERA) and Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.93 ERA). Greinke had an extra day of rest this past Saturday at Toronto, after exiting his previous start with a sore neck. It seemingly helped, as he scattered four hits over six innings in a 6-0 win over the Blue Jays. The victory was just the first in a four-start stretch but DON'T ignore the fact that after an Opening Day start that saw him allow seven ERs over just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers, Greinke has produced 11 quality starts in 12 of his next 13 outings (2.25 ERA in that baker's dozen of games). Opposing Greinke will be Erick Fedde, a 2014 first-round pick. He opened this season with just 14 career starts and began the season in the bullpen. However, he has acquitted himself well in his four starts since joining the rotation on May 21. He's 1-0 (team is 2-2) with a 2.70 ERA. This marks his 19th career start and FIRST against Arizona. Arizona has been a money-maker on the road (22-17, +$897), while Washington (even after the team's recent good run), owns the 4th-worst moneyline mark (-$1,513) in MLB. That said, the 'key' here is Greinke over Fedde. Fedde is a 'work in progress,' while Greinke (the AL's 2009 Cy Young winner) is a proven winner. I've stated his impressive 2019 numbers above and will add that Greinke is 5-1 in eight career starts (teams are 6-2) with a 1.46 ERA and 0.91 WHIP vs Washington. Greinke has NOT lost to the Nationals since 2014 and DON'T expect him to lose tonight! Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-19 | Blues v. Bruins -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Bruins at 8:08 ET. The Boston Bruins have won SIX previous NHL championships (most recently hoisted the Stanley Cup in 2011) but they have never before played host to Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final. As for the Blues, they are looking for the franchise's first-ever NHL championship after entering the series 0-12 over three previous trips to the finals. St Louis had a chance to close things out at home in Game 6 on Sunday but Boston dominated the contest from the start and won, 5-1. This contest marks the 17th time the finals have gone seven games, with the home team going 12-4 in the previous 16 instances. Rookie Jordan Binnington will once again step "between the pipes," giving him a second chance to set the single postseason rookie win total of 16 (he already owns the record for road wins with nine). Binnington allowed four goals on 31 shots in Sunday's Game 6 loss but the Blues are counting on the fact that he has posted a 7-2 record with a 1.86 goals-against average in games after defeats in the playoffs. Ryan O'Reilly has scored four goals and set up another in his last three games to push his overall playoff point total to 21 (seven goals, 14 assists), matching a franchise record with Hall of Famers Doug Gilmour (1986), Bernie Federko (1986) and Brett Hull (1990). However, Jaden Schwartz (the team's leading goal-scorer in the playoffs with 12), has yet to score this series.Another HUGE factor has been the Blues' inability to convert on the power play, as they are just 1-of-18 in the series! I was "all over" the Bruins in Game 6 and noted prior to that contest that Rask was "the key" and he sure made me look smart in making 28 saves (12 came while St Louis was on the power play). Rask will take the ice tonight with the lowest GAA of any playoff goalie (1.93 per) and the best SP (.938) of any netminder. Boston's No. 1 line (Marchand, Pastrnak & Bergeron) each own nine postseason goals, with Marchand leading all players with 23 postseason points. I WANT Boston's experience in this Game 7. Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Krejci, captain Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask have all previously traversed this terrain by suiting up in a winner-take-all contest in Vancouver in 2011 (note: Chara will play in his 14th Game 7, passing Hall of Famers Patrick Roy and Scott Stevens for the most in the NHL). Yes, Binnington has been terrific this postseason, especially coming off a loss (see above) but he has NOT been better than Rask (as just noted, above). Let me add that in three "elimination" games this postseason, Rask is 3-0 with a 1.33 GAA, having saved 145 of 149 shots (.973 SP!). I noted above that this will mark the first time that the Bruins will host a Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Final. Let me add that the City of Boston hasn't hosted a Game 7 in a championship round since the NBA's Celtics in 1984 (note: Celtics beat the Lakers 1111-102 in that one). Unlike the St Louis players and fans who were not up to the challenge in Game 6, I expect the Bruins (particularly Rask, who should win the Conn Smythe) and their fans will 'rule the day!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-19 | Brewers v. Astros -127 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season with a seven-game road trip and went 2-5. However, the team responded with a 10-game winning streak (April5-16) to 'right the ship.' Another 10-game winning streak (May 8-18) solidified its lead in the AL West. The now 46-22 Astros (owners of MLB's best record) won for the 10th time in their last 12 games after they won a 10-8 slugfest on Tuesday in the opener of a brief two-game IL series with the Brewers. Yordan Alvarez became the first player in franchise history to homer in each of his first two major-league games, while Robinson Chirinos, Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White also went deep for Houston. Milwaukee's Christian Yelich belted his major league-leading 25th homer while going 3-for-5 to extend his hitting streak to nine games. Milwaukee had won four straight after sweeping three from Pittsburgh over the weekend and continue to go 'tit-for-tat' with the Cubs in the NL Central. Both Milwaukee and Chicago lost yesterday, so the 38-29 Brewers maintain a half-game lead on the Cubs in the NL Central. Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) and Justin Verlander (9-2, 2.31 ERA) square off in Wednesday night's game. Woodruff's ONLY loss of the 2019 season came back on April 10, when he lost 4-2 against the Los Angeles Angels on April 10. He has since allowed two rus or less in SEVEN of his last 10 starts. The Brewers have won NINE of those 10 starts and have gone 11-2 in his 13 starts this season, giving him MLB's 3rd-best moneyline mark (+$851). Woodruff has pitched well but he's NO Justin Verlander, who looks to become the first 10-game winner in the major leagues in tonight's contest. Verlander did not factor in the decision in his last outing, allowing three runs on five hits over 6.1 innings at Seattle (Astros won, 8-7). He has now given up five hits or less in 11 straight starts. Houston is 11-3 in his 14 starts this season and Verlander owns an 0.74 WHIP, while limiting opponents to a .151 batting average in 2019 (110-19 KW ratio). He is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers and in five homes starts in 2019, owns a 1.75 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .143 BAA and 40-5 KW ratio. Why has this line moved so much towards Milwaukee? Houston has won five straight series and is 10-0-1 in its last 11 series, despite missing key regulars such as George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-19 | Reds v. Indians -128 | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Getaway Day Romp is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians were not able to sweep the Yankees on Sunday (lost 7-6) but the team's offense came alive by scoring 37 runs in the last six games (6.17 per) in winning back-to-back series over the Twins and Yankees. The Indians opened a two-game IL series with the Reds last night (Ohio Cup) and escaped with a 2-1 win when rookie Oscar Mercado ended it with a bases-loaded single in the 10th. Trevor Bauer entered Tuesday's game 0-5 in his previous seven outings (team was 1-6 ) and with a 5.61 home ERA on the season. However, he gave Cleveland 7.2 strong innings (allowed one run), then saw three relievers pitch 2.1 scoreless innings. A lack of offense continues to haunt the Reds, who dropped to 2-6 in their last eight games, having scored only a combined EIGHT runs in those six losses. The teams wrap-up the two-game set Wednesday afternoon with Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.70 ERA) going up against Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.86 ERA). DeSclafani has not won since May 6, stretching his winless drought to five starts his last time out at St. Louis (despite holding the Cardinals to one run and striking out seven over five innings in a game the Cards won 3-1). That was a solid effort but note that over his previous five starts, DeSclafani completed six innings just ONE time, allowing 18 ERs over 23.1 innings for a 6.94 ERA. Meanwhile, Plesac has provided a spark to the Indians' injury-ravaged rotation since he was promoted from the minors late last month. He earned his first major league victory by limiting the New York Yankees to two runs over seven innings in his third career start last Friday (a 5-2 Cleveland win). The 24-year-old is holding batters to a .209 BAA in his three starts, allowing four ERs over 19.1 innings (1.86 ERA) with an 0.88 WHIP and 14-3 KW ratio. The 34-32 Indians are 10 1 /2 games back of the Twins in the AL Central but are just TWO games back in the race for the AL's second wild card spot. Capturing a THIRD straight series (after taking two of three from the Twins and Yankees) would have to be a confidence-builder. Considering the Indians have won 16 of their last 21 meetings with the Reds and that Cleveland owns a distinct advantage in starting pitchers (Plesac over DeSclafani) plus MLB's lowest bullpen ERA (3.21), the Indians are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros -110 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season with a seven-game road trip and went 2-5. However, the team responded with a 10-game winning streak (April5-16) to 'right the ship.' Another 10-game winning streak (May 8-18) solidified its lead in the AL West. The now 45-22 Astros are tied for MLB's best record with the Dodgers plus own a nine-game lead in the AL West. They step into interleague play tonight when they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first contest of a two-game set. Houston has won five straight series and is 10-0-1 in its last 11 series, despite missing key regulars such as George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The 38-28 Milwaukee have won four straight after sweeping three from Pittsburgh over the weekend and continue to go 'tit-for-tat' with the 37-28 Cubs in the NL Central. Taking the mound on Tuesday night in Houston will be Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 ERA) and Houston's Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20 ERA). Peralta opened the season in the starting rotation but after five starts, was sent to the bullpen. He went six innings (four hits and one run allowed) in an April 6 win but in his other four starts, allowed a whopping 26 hits and 20 ERs in just 13.2 innings (13.17 ERA). Four of his five appearances from May 7 through May 31 came out of the bullpen but he started last last Thursday at home vs the Marlins, allowing just one run on four hits with nine strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 victory. Peacock went 13-2 (3.00 ERA) when the Astros won the 2017 World Series, making 34 appearances (including 21 starts). However, he made just ONE start in 2018, in 61 appearances (mostly used in middle-relief, as he had just three saves). However, he's made 11 starts in 13 appearances this season and has excelled since going to a full wind-up with the bases empty. He suffered his first loss since changing his delivery last Wednesday, 14-1 at Seattle. However, note that he allowed just two runs, four hits and two walks while striking out six in five innings of that loss (bullpen allowed 12 runs over three innings!) I wouldn't make too much of Peralta's win over Miami, which owns the NL's worst record plus ranks dead-last in all of MLB in scoring (3.47 RPG), OPS (.642) and HRs (48). Peralta faces a Houston team which is 24-9 at home (outscoring opponents 5.03-to-3.61 RPG) and a lineup which ranks 2nd in team BA (.267), 2nd in OPS (.811) and 4th in HRs (106). Houston is 18-7 in home games vs righties, averaging 5.2 RPG. Peacock takes the mound 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in six starts (team is 5-1) since making the change with 41 strikeouts in 34 innings during that span. I'm "all over" Houston in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +105 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. The Toronto Raptors won both games in Oakland to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and Monday can complete the team's historic mission in front of its home crowd. The Warriors led early in Game 4 but a 37-21 third quarter by Toronto eliminated any suspense. Kawhi kept Toronto close in the first quarter (scored 14 of the team's 17 points) and then helped lead the third-quarter charge (added another 14 points). Leonard is averaging 31.1 PPG in Toronto's 22 postseason games but the team's complementary players continue to "take turns" coming up 'big.' In Game 4, Serge Ibaka recorded a postseason-high 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting. K.D. missed his NINTH straight game for Golden State, while Klay Thompson made a strong return after missing Game 3 with a strained left hamstring. He scored 28 points with six 3-pointers. Steph Curry added 27 points but shot just 9 for 22 and 2 of 9 from three-point range on the heels of his postseason career-best 47-point outing in a 123-109 Game 3 defeat. Draymond Green is averaging 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists in the series but has not been "Disruptor-in-Chief." Kevin Durant's availability for Game 5 uncertain. The two-time Finals MVP returned to practice on Sunday and is being listed as questionable. Good news for the Warriors is that Kevon Looney scored 10 points in 20 minutes off the bench in Game 4 after missing Game 3 (chest injury).For Toronto, starting guards Lowry and Green combined for 41 points in the Game 3 win (made 11 of 19 three-pointers but then for just 13 points in Game 4, shooting 4 of 20 overall, including 1 of 11 on threes. What can we expect in Game 5? The atmosphere in Toronto will be charged with anticipation and excitement. "They're going to be going crazy in Toronto," Raptors coach Nick Nurse said. "And my message to (the team) is we have never really talked about the series score, can't let people take you someplace you aren't yet, right, and we know this is a great team and we know how hard we have to play to beat them." Meanwhile, the Warriors have experience on both sides of a 3-1 series margin. They were down to the OKC Thunder in 2016 during the Western Conference semifinals and won, then led the NBA Finals 3-1 that year against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and lost. "You just try to win one game," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "That's what we did a few years ago against OKC (when down 3-1 in the Western Conference finals). Win one game, and then you move forward. So, that's our focus now. ... We have won a lot of games over the years, so we'll try to win another one." K.D. or no K.D, I'm backing the team which has won THREE of the last four NBA titles. As for Game 6??? Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-19 | Cubs v. Rockies -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Chicago Cubs won 5-1 on Sunday over St Louis, completing a three-game sweep of their NL Central rival. Chicago improved to 24-11 on the season at Wrigley, after wrapping up a 6-1 homestand during which it outscored the opposition 41-21. The Cubs will now spend the upcoming week trying to prove they can go toe-to-toe with the two of the best teams in the National League West on the road (three with the Rockies and four with the Dodgers). Colorado lost two of three at Wrigley (Tue-Thu) and then saw its bats silenced for the most part over the weekend in New York, scoring a total of just FOUR four runs in losing TWO of three to the Mets. On the season, the Rockies rank third in the NL in runs (340), just ahead of the Cubs (335). Monday's pitching matchup Yu Darvish (2-3, 4.88 ERA) of Chicago and German Marquez (6-3, 4.07 ERA) of Colorado is a quick "re-hook" of Chicago's 9-8 win over Colorado last Wednesday. Darvish did not factor in the decision for a SEVENTH straight outing last Wednesday. He gave up three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks over 5.1 innings against Colorado. The Cubs signed Darvish to a big deal in 2018, after his AWFUL performance in the 2017 World Series for the Dodgers. He was limited to just eight starts in 2018 (due to injury), finishing 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. He's made 13 starts in 2019 but owns a 4.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Marquez endured one of the worst starts of his career last Wednesday in Chicago, allowing eight runs on seven hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in that 9-8 loss to the Cubs. I'm not sure where that start came from? After all, Marquez has been Colorado's best pitcher in 2019. He was coming off a May in which he was 3-0 in six starts, as the Rockies were 5-1 when he took the mound. I'll 'jump all over' the Rockies and Marquez in this quick "re-hook." Including last Wednesday's outing, Darvish is now 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA in four career starts against Colorado (teams are 1-3). Marquez takes the mound with the Rockies having gone 6-1 in his seven starts this season at Coors and gets his 'revenge!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-19 | Bruins +110 v. Blues | Top | 5-1 | Win | 110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Year is on the Bos Bruins at 8:00 ET. I'm sure you've all heard this before. The St Louis Blues were through Jan 2. As the team got set to play its first game of 2019 (on Jan 3), St Louis sat at the bottom of the pack in the NHL with a 15-18-4 record and the fewest points in the NHL. Fast-forward five months later and the Blues are on the verge of completing a stunning turnaround. ONE more win (in Game 6 or 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals) and St Louis would capture its first Stanley Cup.The teams split the first two games of the series but Boston exploded for a 7-2 win in Game 3, chasing rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington after he allowed FIVE goals on 24 shots. However, the Blues rebounded to win Game 4 (4-2) and Game 5 in Boston (2-1), as Binnington stopped 59 of 62 shots (.952 SP). Boston enters this "must-win" game getting just two assists in the past two losses from its No. 1 line. Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak combined for 106 goals in the regular season and have 55 points in the playoffs. Bottom line is, Boston's play the last two games hasn't been good enough. The Blues' physical style is bothering the Bruins, forcing key mistakes that wind up in the back of the net. Of particular note, St. Louis has been the better team in 5-on-5 play AND the Bruins' potent power play is 0-for-5 in the past two games, after converting in each of the previous SEVEN contests (that includes Boston's 4-for-4 performance on 4 shots in Game 3). The Blues' turnaround coincided with the arrival of Jordan Binnington, who went 24-5-1 following his promotion from the minors in early January and is coming off his best game of the Finals with a 38-save performance in Game 5. Center Ryan O'Reilly is riding a four-game point streak and has been HUGE in the back-to-back wins, with three goals and an assist. Here's the setting. The Bruins are facing elimination Sunday night in Game 6 and will be playing in what should be a charged-up Enterprise Center. The cheapest ticket on the open market, according to StubHub, is going for more than $2,000. St Louis can become the first team in four years to win the Cup on its home ice and can also win the Cup for the first time in its 52-year history. It all seems too perfect for me. Note that while St Louis is 9-3 on the road during the postseason, the Blues are only 6-6 here at home. Yes, Binnington matched a postseason rookie record with 15 wins and set another with nine road victories but he's NOT the best goalie this postseason. That 'title' belongs to Boston's Tuukka Rask. He owns the postseason's lowest GAA (1.97) and best save percentage (.937), while Binnington's GAA (2.46) ranks 10th among all playoff goalies and his .913 SP is tied for 12th. St Louis may win its first-ever Cup but the Blues WON'T win it here in Game 6! Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-19 | Nationals -108 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Was Nationals at 4:10 ET. The Washington Nats came to San Diego on Thursday having won FOUR straight and NINE of their last 11. However, the Nats lost back-to-back games (each by a 5-4 score) to open the four-game set, before winning last night 4-1 behind Max Scherzer (7 IP / 0 runs / 9 Ks). Second baseman Brian Dozier hit a two-run homer and is batting .328 with five HRs and 16 RBI over his last 19 contests. Anthony Rendon extended his on-base streak to 23 straight games with a run-scoring single and is hitting .341 with five HRs and 22 RBI over that stretch.The defeat was San Diego's FIFTH in its last eight games. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Stephen Strasburg (6-3, 3.54 ERA) and Luis Perdomo (1-0, 4.08 ERA). Strasburg has won his last three decisions, pitching at least seven innings in three of his last four outings. He earned his 100th career victory this past Tuesday against the White Sox, despite allowing five runs over five innings. Strasburg is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 career starts s the Padres (Nats are 7-3). The Padres took their time naming their starter for Sunday but eventually decided to give the nod to Luis Perdomo. Perdomo is set to make a spot start in place of Matt Strahm, who was placed on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with soreness in his left side. Perdomo has made 11 relief appearances this season, recording a 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17.2 innings. Perdomo actually threw one inning in Saturday's loss and will likely serve as the team's "opener," before handing the ball to other relievers, including Robbie Erlin, who made 12 starts for the Padres last season. Strange decision by the Padres in starting Perdomo and considering that Strasburg owns a 1.00 WHIP, allowing 22 runs (21 earned) on 48 hits and 15 walks with 80 strikeouts in 63 innings vs San Diego in his career, the Nats are the "easy choice," especially at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET. The Cards/Cubs may not quite match the Red Sox/Yankees or Dodgers/Giants in the storied history of MLB rivalries, but the St Louis/Chicago rivalry comes close. The Cubs dropped three straight in St Louis to the Cards last weekend but improved to 4-0 against the Cardinals at home in 2019 with Friday's 3-1 triumph. Cole Hamels tossed eight scoreless innings to make Javier Baez's first-inning, two-run HR stand up as the Cubs improved to 22-11 at home. As for the Cards, the loss was the team's 11th in its last 14 on the road. Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76 ERA) gets the nod for St Louis and Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA) for Chicago. Flaherty has had a solid rookie season in 2018, going 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts. He's pitched solid again in 2019, with a 3.76 ERA over 12 starts. That said, he's been much more effective at home. Flaherty owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in seven home starts, while posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five away starts. Lester was dominant through his first seven starts of 2019 (despite a two-week stay on the DL), allowing just five ERs over 38.2 innings (1.16 ERA). However, he hit a 'brick wall' going 0-3 with a 10.28 ERA over his final three starts of May. However, the veteran lefty opened June by limiting the Los Angeles Angels to a run in seven innings while striking out six in an 8-1 victory. Looking closely at this matchup finds the Cards on a 3-11 run away from home and starting a pitcher on the mound with some real 'ugly' road numbers (see above). Meanwhile, the Cubs are 22-11 at Wrigley with Lester owning a 1.76 ERA in six home starts in 2019 while posting a 32-4 KW ratio in 30.2 innings. Lester also owns a 2.85 ERA in 18 career starts against the Cardinal. on last thing. The Cubs are 12-3 (that's 80% ) in home night games vs righties in 2019. Expect another home team win in this rivalry, as the home team has taken each of the first SEVEN meetings between the Cardinals and Cubs this year. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Yankees -125 v. Indians | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Yankees at 4:10 ET. Cleveland posted its third win in four games with a 5-2 victory in the series opener against the Yankees, behind a tie-breaking two-run HR from Carlos Santana in the sixth-inning. The Yankees have now lost FOUR of five and are in jeopardy of dropping back-to-back series, after winning the previous NINE. The Yankees are also in danger of falling out of first place in the AL East, as they are currently just a half-game up on the Rays (NY is 39-23 and TB is 38-23). As for Cleveland, the Indians' win moves them above .500 (32-31) but a whopping 10 1/2-games back of the Twins in the AL Central. CC Sabathia (3-2, 3.61 ERA) gets the ball for the Yankees and Adam Plutko (1-1, 6.35 ERA) for the Indians. Sabathia spent nearly all of his first eight major league seasons with the Cleveland Indians, winning an American League Cy Young Award and 106 games. With CC announcing that he will retire at the end of the season, this will be his last start in Cleveland. Sabathia had a four-start unbeaten streak halted against the Boston Red Sox this past Sunday, giving up three runs on seven hits in an 8-5 loss. However, he did have a season-high eight strikeouts over six innings. Plutko had an impressive season debut on May 18, beating the Orioles 4-1 (allowing only a solo HR in six innings). However, he took a major step back when he was battered by Tampa Bay for seven runs on 12 hits over 5.1 innings on May 23 in a 7-2 loss. That performance earned him a demotion to the minors but with Cleveland's starting rotation ravaged by injuries, Plutko will be summoned from Triple-A Columbus to make his 15th career start. Plutko's made just 21 big leaue appearances (14 starts), posting a 5.50 ERA. He will face a Yankee lineup which is 32-15 this season against righties, averaging 5.6 RPG. Let me add that the Yanks are averaging 6.03 RPG on the road this season and are getting healthier (Didi Gregorius had a pair of singles in his first game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last October). Plutko will be opposed by Sabathia, looking for his 250th career win in his last appearance in Cleveland. The play is on New York. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Diamondbacks -130 v. Blue Jays | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 3:07 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks opened a 10-game road trip Friday night in Toronto with an 8-2 win. The D'backs hit three HRs in scoring eight times, after scoring a total of just four runs in the team's final three games of its last homestand. Arizona hopes to carry that momentum into Saturday afternoon's matchup vs the Blue Jays, after losing 12 of its previous 18. Toronto could play the perfect foil, as the Blue Jays managed only five hits on Friday, falling to 3-12 over their last 15 games. Zack Greinke (6-2, 3.09 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and Aaron Sanchez (3-6, 3.95 ERA) for Toronto. Greinke is coming off his shortest outing since Opening Day, giving up four runs and seven hits over just four innings while dealing with neck stiffness in a no-decision against the New York Mets (D'backs did win, 6-5). Speaking of that Opening day start (7 ERs allowed over just 3.2 innings), Greinke's outing vs the Mets ended a string of 11 consecutive quality starts since that Opening Day start. He is winless over his last three starts, after going 6-0 in his previous nine outings. Sanchez has been bothered by blister issues throughout his career and 2019 has been no different. He left his May 17th start after three innings and two starts later (May 27), a fingernail issue limited him to three innings. He was able to make it through six innings last time out at Colorado, taking the loss after giving up four runs on seven hits to fall to 0-5 over his last seven starts (team is 1-6). His last win came way back on April 27! Sanchez won his lone career start against the Diamondbacks with seven innings of one-run ball in 2016. Greinke is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA In 11 games (nine starts) against Toronto in his career but he has not faced the Blue Jays since 2010. His current form makes him the MUCH better choice here vs Sanchez. Greinke takes on a punch-less Toronto offense that has been held to two runs or fewer 17 times in its last 33 contests and one which is 13-31 against right-handers (averaging only 3.6 RPG) on the season. That's a 70% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Goin' Over Total is on LAD/SD Over at 10:15 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers have won SIX of their seven series against NL West opponents in 2019 (15-6 record inside the division). LA visits San Francisco Friday for the first contest of a three-game series with the Giants. Surprisingly, half of LA's division losses (and the Dodgers' only series loss) have come against the 25-36 Giants, who own the second-worst record in the NL and will begin the weekend 17 games behind Los Angeles! The Dodgers are 8-0-2 in series play since dropping two of three in San Francisco from April 29-May 1, going 23-7 in individual games. The Giants are returning home after a 4-5 road trip in which they displayed their offensive capability at times before wrapping up their trek by getting outscored 14-3 in a pair of losses to the New York Mets. Comparing the two teams we find that the Dodgers lead the NL in team batting average (.265) and runs scored (340), while the Giants rank last (.221) and second-to-last (236), respectively. Friday's pitching matchup is a complete mismatch. Clayton Kershaw (5-0, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 8.08 ERA) for San Fran. The Dodgers have won all NINE of Kershaw's 2019 starts, as he has pitched at least six innings in each of his nine outings. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 22-10 with a 1.68 ERA in 44 starts against the Giants (teams are 28-16). In stark comparison, Pomeranz is likely fighting to keep his spot in the rotation, after coming off one of the worst outings of his career last Friday in Baltimore. He allowed eight runs on six hits and two walks, lasting just 1.1 innings. The veteran lefty has not reach the fourth inning in any of his last FOUR starts, allowing 22 ERs on 25 hits over 10.1 innings for an astronomical 20.17 ERA. Pomeranz owns a respectable 3.24 ERA in eight career starts vs LA (he's 1-4 and the team is 4-4) but that means no more than his 17-6 (3.32 ERA) with Boston in 2017, does. The Dodgers could 'cover' this over/under number themselves plus let me point out that in Kershaw's last five starts, the final scores have averaged 10.6 RPG. Play the Over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 9:07 ET. KD remained out in Game 3 for the Warriors and Klay Thompson joined him. Throw in the loss of backup center Kevon Looney and the defending champs suffered a 123-109 home loss to the Raptors. Kawhi led Toronto with 30 points and the remaining four starters all scored between 17 and 23 points, After combing for just 21 points in a Game 2 loss, Toronto guards Lowry and Green totaled 41 points, while nailing 11, three-pointers. PF Siakam and center Gasol added 35 points and 16 rebounds, after combining for 18 & 14 in that Game 2 loss. Steph Curry score a career playoff-high 47 points but while the Raptors shot 52.5 as a team, the Warriors connected on 39.6%. That's a recipe for losing by 14 points. Klay Thompson will return to the lineup for Golden State but Kevin Durant will again be sidelined Kawhi Leonard scored 30 points in the Game 3 win, his 13th 30-point outing of the postseason. Only SIX others in NBA history, Michael Jordan (four times), Kobe Bryant (two times), LeBron James (two times), Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, have had 13 or more 30-point games in a single postseason. Leonard carrying a Toronto franchise that now stands just TWO wins away from its first NBA title. History is on Toronto's side, as the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 Finals has gone on to claim the championship on 31 of 38 occasions! Thompson wanted to play in Game 3 before reluctantly agreeing with the training staff's view that it was too risky in terms that a re-injury might sideline him for the rest of the series. Curry was a one-man show in Game 3, as he poured in 47 points for his sixth career playoff 40-point outing, as well as contributing eight rebounds and seven assists. With Thompson back, expect the trio of Curry, Thompson and Green to be at its best in this almost "must-win" situation. The Warriors are best-known for their offense but Golden St has played great defense for good parts of the team's run of three titles in the last four seasons. Toronto shot 50.6 percent in Game 1 and 52.4 percent in Game 3 but the Raptors were held to just 37.2 percent from the floor (including 28.9 percent on three-pointers), while putting up just 104 points in their Game 2 loss. That's the 'ticket' for Golden St in Game 4 and my 'bet.'. We are headed back to Toronto tied at 2-all, as the Warriors win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | A's v. Rangers -110 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics earned a wild card spot in 2018 and were MLB's top money-earners (+$3,663). However, the A's continue their 10-game road trip this weekend in Texas just 31-31 (-$330) on the season, 11 games back of 43-21 Houston in the AL West. After losing back-to-back home series, Oakland began its road trip by winning two of three at the LA Angels. The A's hope to "keep it up" vs Texas, with Friday's contest marking the first of four games vs the Rangers. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, Texas has won 15 of its 21 contests and at 32-28, currently holds down the AL's second wild card spot, percentage points ahead of the Red Sox. Brett Anderson (6-4, 3.95 ERA) takes the mound for Oakland and Lance Lynn (7-4, 4.50 ERA) for Texas. Anderson is having a so-so season and left his last outing against Houston on Saturday with an oblique issue in the 6th inning. He's said to be OK but we'll see. He's 3-4 with a 4.82 ERA in 14 career games (11 starts / teams are 4-7) vs the Rangers. The veteran Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three runs or less in NINE of his 12 starts this season. Lynn will attempt to redeem himself after being battered for eight runs and nine hits in 3.1 innings of an 11-5 loss at Oakland on April 23 (his lone career start vs Oakland) . I like his chances, as Lynn takes the mound with Texas having won all five of his home starts (Lynn has recorded wins in the last four). What's more, Texas checks 22-10 at home on the season (averaging a 'healthy' 5.81 RPG), Beating Baltimore last night gave the Rangers their FIFTH straight winning series at home! Lynn helps get Texas a win here in the first of four with Oakland, as the Rangers look to win a SIXTH straight home series. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Yankees -120 v. Indians | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The injury-ravaged New York Yankees snapped a three-game losing streak with a 6-2 victory at Toronto on Thursday. DJ LeMahieu went 3-for-4 with two RBI, extending his hitting streak to 11 games (his second of the season). LeMahieu is batting .320 with three HRs and 15 RBI during his streak and leads all of MLB by hitting .491 with runners in scoring position this season. Aaron Hicks added a three-run HR for New York, which is 39-22 (1 1/2 games ahead for Tampa Bay in the AL East). The Indians missed an opportunity to sweep the AL Central-leading Twins on Thursday, falling 5-4 after winning the first two games of the series. Cleveland is just 31-31 (10 1/2 games back of Minnesota) as it gets set to host the Yankees in this weekend's three-game set. Domingo German (9-1, 3.66 ERA) gets the nod for New York and will be opposed by Zach Plesac (0-1, 1.46 ERA). German will try to become the majors' first 10-game winner tonight but he has struggled in his last two starts, after a six-game winning streak (April 23-May 21). German has received no-decisions in his last two starts, allowing a combined 10 runs on 15 hits (including five HRs) in only 8.2 innings against Boston and at Kansas City (Yanks went 1-1). Plesac is a rookie and will be making his third career start. He was a hard-luck loser after yielding one run (solo HR) and four hits while striking out seven in seven innings of a 2-0 loss to the White Sox in Chicago this past Sunday. He received a no-decision in his big-league debut, allowing just one run on four hits in 5.1 innings of Cleveland's 7-5 victory at Boston on May 28. Should we be worried about German's last two outings? Maybe, but I'm willing to 'pull the trigger,' here. After all, despite his recent woes, he boasts a 1.11 WHIP and .215 batting average against with 71 strikeouts in 64 innings (just 18 walks) over 12 appearances. He earned a "W" in his lone relief stint and the Yanks are 9-2 in his 11 starts (5-1 on the road). The Yankees are 32-14 vs righties this season (averaging 5.7 RPG), while the Indians are just 21-23 against right-handed starters, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Easy choice, here. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Nationals v. Padres -105 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Washington Nationals arrive in San Diego on Thursday to begin a four-game series. The 2019 season has not gone well for the Nats (just 28-33) but things are "looking up," as they arrive having won FOUR in a row and NINE of their last 11. The 31-31 Padres welcome Washington to San Diego but are trending in the opposite direction. The Padres begin this four-game series having dropped SEVEN of their last 10. however, San Diego but expects to have star rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup for Thursday’s contest. He has been out since April 28 with a strained left hamstring but was deemed ready to return after playing two minor-league rehab games for Double-A Amarillo earlier this week. The pitching matchup for the series opener will be Patrick Corbin (5-3, 3.46 ERA) vs Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.96 ERA). Corbin is a two-time All-Star and while he's posted solid numbers in 12 starts this season (1.14 WHIP, 64 hits allowed in 75.1 innings, an 83-22 KW ratio and ,228 BAA), the Nats are a modest 7-5 in his his starts. Lucchesi takes the mound coming off his first victory since April 21, allowing just one run through 6.1 innings. in a 5-2 win against Miami last Friday, While wins have been infrequent, Lucchesi owns a 2.97 ERA and a 28-55 KW ratio in five May starts starts (covering 30.1 innings). Corbin owns a lengthy history against the Padres, going 6-7 in 19 games (14 starts / teams are 7-7) with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .267 OBA. He is 2-4 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 BAA in 10 games (seven starts) at Petco Park. He's been strong at home in six 2019 starts (2.32 ERA & 0.87 WHIP) but in six road starts, his ERA is 4.96 and his WHIP jumps to 1.50! As noted, Lucchesi is off a very good May (see above) and the Nats played a day game Wednesday at home, before traveling cross-country for the first of four games in San Diego, tonight. Good spot for the Nats to flop. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -160 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The struggling Orioles and the surprising Rangers conclude a three-games series tonight in Arlington, after splitting the first two contests. Talk about "What a difference a day can make?' The Orioles survived a wild 12-11 contest in the series opener on Tuesday (Texas rallied for SIX runs in the 9th), before the Rangers eked out a 2-1 triumph in 12 innings on Wednesday. The rubber match of their three-game set goes tonight. David Hess (1-7, 7.36 ERA) will take the mound for Baltimore, while Ariel Jurado (2-2, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for Texas. Hess takes the mound coming off his seventh consecutive losing decision, when he was battered by San Francisco for seven runs on six hits and three walks over four innings last Saturday (Giants won, 8-2). The 25-year-old has surrendered at least FIVE runs in each of his last four starts and has allowed fewer than three in only ONE of his 11 starts this season. BTW, that came in his FIRST of the year (April 1), when he worked 6.1 hit-less innings at Toronto en route to his lone victory of 2019. Jurado will be making his fourth start of the year and third in a row (this marks his 13th appearance in 2019). His last two starts have been "quality" ones, limiting Kansas City to two runs in six innings of a 6-2 win this past Friday, which followed a no-decision at the LAA on May 26, when he also allowed two runs in 6.1 innings. Jurado still has much to prove but Hess has proven to be a 'nightmare.' What's more, the Orioles own MLB's worst overall record (19-42) and the right-handed Jurdao will face a lineup which is just 12-26 vs righties this season, averaging only 4.0 RPG. As for Texas, the Rangers are 21-10 at home on the season (averaging a 'healthy' 5.87 RPG). Baltimore has not won a series since late April, while Texas Rangers looks to win its FIFTH straight series at home! Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Twins -105 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AL Central) is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians have taken the first two of this three-game series with the Twins and now look to complete a three-game sweep on Thursday night. The back-to-back victories have pushed the Indians over .500 (31-30) but they are still 9 1/2 games back of the 40-20 Twins in the AL Central. The Twins are MLB's highest-scoring team (5.93 RPG ) and share the major-league lead with 114 home runs but it's been Cleveland which has pounded out seven HRs in 5-2 and 9-7 wins. Francisco Lindor recorded his 10th career multi-homer performance in Tuesday's win and hit a solo shot in the eighth inning of Wednesday's victory. The All-Star shortstop is 16-for-38 with four HRs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored in his last 10 contests. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.27 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota and Trevor Bauer (4-5, 3.76 ERA) for Cleveland. Berrios walked away with a no-decision this past Friday, after allowing three runs on three hits with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings at Tampa Bay. However, the Twins won that game 5-3, upping Minnesota's record to 10-2 in Berrios' 12 starts of 2019 (he owns the 3rd-best moneyline mark among starters at +$793). Trevor Bauer is having a HUGELY disappointing 2019 and enters this contest 0-4 in his last six starts (team is 1-5 and he owns a 5.50 ERA). Bauer is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 9-10) vs the Twins, while Berrios is 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA in eight career starts vs Cleveland (team is 5-3). Barrios has had a MUCH better season than Bauer and comes in MUCH better current form. The Twins (1st in all of MLB in runs, BA, OPS and HRs) have yet to lose three straight contests or be swept this season in a series. BOTH of those streaks are on the line and my bet is Berrios and Minnesota rise to the challenge. Good luck...Larry
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06-05-19 | Rockies +106 v. Cubs | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs lost EIGHT of 10 games from May 23 thru Jun 2 but have opened the week with an 8-1 home win over the Angels and a 6-3 win last night over the Rockies, who came to Wrigley for a three-game series. Colorado arrived in Chicago on an EIGHT-game winning streak while averaging 7.0 RPG but were held to three runs on just six hits last night. The pitching matchup for Wednesday features German Marquez (6-2, 3.48 ERA) and Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02 ERA). Starting pitching has not been a strength for the Colorado Rockies in the first two months of 2019. Kyle Freeland (last year's ace) struggled and was demoted to the minors to iron out his issues plus Tyler Anderson was ineffective until he was put on the injured list and will likely miss the rest of the season. Marquez has easily been Colorado's best pitcher. He's coming off a May in which he was 3-0 in six starts, as the Rockies were 5-1 when he took the mound. Chicago's Darvish made six starts in May but did not record a decision, despite allowing three runs or fewer in four of the outing. However, Darvish remains a HUGE disappointment. The Cubs signed him to a big deal in 2018, after his AWFUL performance in the 2017 World Series for the Dodgers. He was limited to just eight starts in 2018 (due to injury), finishing 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. He's made 12 starts in 2019 but owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Marquez is building off his solid 2018 season (14-11, with Colorado going 19-14, +$571 in his starts) and enters this game in top form (see above). Darvish has been awful in six home starts during 2019, posting a 6.32 ERA and 1.66 WHIP plus has lost all THREE career starts vs Colorado, allowing 16 ERs on 17 hits and nine walks over just 13.1 innings (10.13 ERA). Cubs lose! Cubs lose! Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets -127 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The calendar flipped to June on Saturday and the San Francisco Giants couldn't be happier. The Giants closed May by losing EIGHT of nine games, as their pitching staff was ravaged for 73 runs (note: the team's starting rotation posted a major league-worst 7.32 ERA in May). However, the Giants received back-to-back quality starts over the weekend in beating the Orioles 8-2 and 8-1. Bumgarner gave San Fran six innings last night (three ERs) and the bullpen added four scoreless ones, as the Giants used a SIX-run 10th inning to win 9-3 (Bruce Bochy became the second manager in franchise history to win 1,000 games). As for the Mets, New York's bullpen compiled an 11.65 ERA on its recently concluded road trip and was ripped for SIX runs on nine hits over 3.1 innings in the team's SIXTH loss in eight games. The middle contest of the three-game series will feature Tyler Beede (0-1, 7.82 ERA) taking on Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46). Beede will be making just his seventh major league appearance and fifth start. He remains in search of the first win of his brief career but he is coming off his longest start with six strong innings of one-run ball in a no-decision at the Miami Marlins on Thursday (Giants won, 3-1). It marked the first time in four starts that the former first-round pick pitched beyond four innings. However, his only other start this season saw him hammered for EIGHT runs over 2.1 innings at Cincinnati back on May 3. Vargas signed with the Mets for two-years and $16 million plus an $8 million option for a third year in Feb of 2018 but he suffered a broken right hand in March of 2018 and missed the first month of the season. He was once again placed on the disabled list in July with a calf injury and finished a disappointing 7-9 (5.77 ERA in 20 starts (team was 8-12). Vargas was a hard-luck loser at the LA Dodgers on Thursday, despite turning in his best effort of the year in permitting one run and six hits over six innings. He hasn't won since his first start of 2019 but his recent outing marked the FIFTH time in his last six starts that he has allowed one run or less! San Francisco has outscored the opposition 25-6 during its three-game winning streak but each effort came against a right-handed starter. The Giants draw a lefty here and they check in at 6-11 on the season vs lefties, averaging only 3.5 RPG. Vargas may not be the pitchers he was for KC back in 2017 when he was 18-11 (Royals were 20-12 in his starts giving him the 6th-best moneyline mark of +$1,083) but he has pitched well lately (see above). Let's also note that he owns a 2.61 ERA in six career starts vs San Francisco, including winning both his starts against them the last time he faced them in 2017, posting an 0.64 ERA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-19 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Phi/SD Over at 10:10 ET. Philadelphia lost 8-2 last night in San Diego, the team's FIFTH straight defeat. That skid comes on the heels of Philadelphia winning FIVE of its previous six and the Phillies are now in danger of falling out of first place in the National League East (currently own just a half-game lead over the Braves). The loss makes Philly 0-4 on the team's current road trip and adding insult to injury, Andrew McCutchen exited in the first inning of last night's contest with a knee injury while trying to avoid a tag during a rundown. As for San Diego, the Padres bounced back from a pair of 9-3 home losses to Miami on Sunday, breaking open a tie game with a SEVEN-run sixth inning that featured a grand slam by Manny Machado. The pitchung matchup for the middle contest of this three-game series will feature Jerad Eickhoff (2-3, 4.10 ERA) and Chris Paddack (4-3, 2.40 ERA). Eickhoff's first start of 2019 didn't come until April 21 (he lost 4-1). However, over his next three starts (Apr 26-May 8), he allowed just ONE one earned run over 20 innings, going 2-0 with an 0.45 ERA (Phils were 3-0). To put it mildly, the right-hander hasn't able to keep that up. He has struggled mightily over his last four starts, going 0-2 with a 8.35 ERA, a .329 BAA and a 1.58 WHIP. San Diego's Paddack has been a rookie sensation, although the 'bloom may be coming off the rose.' Paddack had a 1.55 ERA and had allowed only 18 hits in 40.2 innings over his first seven starts. However, he's had two bad outings over his last three. He did beat Arizona 2-1 on May 20 but that starts was preceded by a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers and followed by a 7-0 loss to the Mets. He lasted just 9.2 innings in those two outings, allowing seven ERs on 11 hits (five HRs!), for a 6.52 ERA. Speaking of allowing HRs, Eichoff has served up 10 HRs over 18.1 innings during his rough stretch (see above). Yes, Eickoff owns a 3-0 career record against San Diego with a 1.96 ERA covering four starts (team is 3-1) but he hasn't faced them since 2017. As for Paddack, he has never faced the Phillies. Here's what I read prior to his last start. "Paddack is dealing with neck stiffness but is expected to make his next scheduled start Wednesday against the Yankees." He made that start and it is arguably the worst of his 10 major league starts. He gave up four runs -- three on solo HRs -- on six hits and a walk with six strikeouts in just five innings. This one is Goin' Over this low total. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -122 | 12-11 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which Texas made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, the 30-27 Rangers would be a playoff team in the American League if the season ended now (would earn the second wild card spot)! The Rangers are getting quality starts and continue to turn things over late in games to right-hander Jesse Chavez, who ran his streak of scoreless appearances to 14 straight with a scoreless ninth inning Sunday. Meanwhile, the 18-41 Orioles own the worst record in baseball and are losers of 12 of the last 15 after being outscored by the punchless Giants 16-3 in setbacks on Saturday and Sunday. Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.58 ERA) will get the start for Baltimore, opposed by Drew Smyly (1-3, 6.98 ERA) of Texas. Bundy has only two wins in 11 starts this season (team is just 3-8) and takes the mound having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last FIVE starts. He held the Tigers to three runs on seven hits and did not walk a batter while striking out eight in seven innings but got no support in a 3-0 setback. Smyly is trying to get in sync with the rest of the staff but was ripped for seven runs on eight hits in five innings at Seattle on Wednesday but escaped without a decision in a game Texas won 8-7. However, the team used an "opener" in that game, after the team had won each of his previous "regular" starts, with Smyly owning a respectable 3.86 ERA in those outings. Smyly spent two seasons in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays and is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 games (seven starts / team are an impressive 6-1) against Baltimore. Texas suffered its lone home series loss in a two-game set against Pittsburgh on April 31 and May 1. It is 20-9 in its home park, averaging 5.83 RPG. The Rangers began their 11-game homestand by taking three of four from the Kansas City Royals over the weekend behind a pitching staff that surrendered a total of five runs in the three victories. Not sure we can expect Smyly to be quite that good but the Orioles, like the 19-40 Royals, are an awful team. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-19 | Giants +118 v. Mets | 9-3 | Win | 118 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 7:10 ET. The Giants open a three-game series with the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday with a 24-34 record. That already leaves them 16 1/2 games back of the hated-Dodgers in the NL West. However, San Francisco won Saturday and Sunday at home vs the Orioles, so manager Bruce Bochy is not only hoping his team can earn its first three-game winning streak since April 21-24 but a victory would give Bochy his 1,000th win as Giants manger (only Hall of Famer John McGraw, with a modest 2,583 victories, has won more games with the franchise). The Mets return home following a 2-5 road trip that dropped the team to 4-17 in its last 21 contests away from Citi Field. However, the good news is, the Mets will play their next 12 games without having to leave the city (10 home games, where they are 15-9, and two in the Bronx against the Yankees). Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.01 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants and Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.90 ERA) for the Mets. A pitching duel between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard was at one time "worth the price of admission" but each former All-Star will be seeking their fourth win of the season. The Giants lost FIVE of Bumgarner's first six starts of 2019 but they then won his first four starts of May. However, despite Bumgarner allowing just two ERs over six innings each of of his last two outings, the Gaints lost both games. Syndergaard is winless in his last three trips to the mound, after allowing three runs and seven hits over six innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday (LA won 9-8). Heading into this game, Syndergaard has allowed four ERs or more in SEVEN of his 12 starts in 2019.He does own a 77-17 KW ratio but he's allowed 79 hits in 75.1 innings plus owns a 4.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .273 BAA. San Francisco's starting rotation has been a train wreck, posting a major league-worst 7.32 ERA in May, before receiving back-to-back quality starts over the weekend while beating the MLB-worst Orioles. However, Bumgarner's history vs the Mets is "something special, " as including him tossing a shutout to lift the Giants past the Mets in the 2016 National League wild-card game, Bumgarner is 7-0 in eight career starts vs New York (Giants are 7-1, an 88% winning mark). He owns a 6-0 regular season mark (1.69 ERA) against the Mets, including winning all five outings at Cti Field with a microscopic 0.73 ERA. Enough said! Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues -110 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Blues at 8:00 ET. The St Louis Blues beat the Bruins 3-2 (OT) in Game 2 of the Cup Finals to ties the series at one-all, but after waiting 49 years between hosting games in the Stanley Cup Final, got steamrolled by the Bruins 7-2 in Game 3. The Bruins scored four power-play goals on as many shots, defenseman Tory Krug (goal, three assists) became the first-ever Bruin to record four points in Cup Finals game and SEVEN different Boston players scored. Boston's "Perfection Line"( Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak) combined for five points in Game 3. Goalie Rask made 27 saves and owns an NHL-best 1.91 GAA and .939 SP in the postseason. As for the Blues, standout rookie goalie Jordan Binnington was pulled for the first time in 52 starts this season, after allowing FIVE goals on 19 shots. However, most feel that only ONE of those scores could be blamed entirely on Binnington, who got little help from his defense. Binnington will be back in goal tonight and St Louis head coach Craig Berube said, "My confidence level in him is really high" Berube added that he was at a loss as to why his club has been whistled for penalties as much as it has in the first three games of Stanley Cup Final. "First of all, we were the least penalized team in the league in the first three rounds; now all of a sudden we've taken 14 penalties in one series." Let's not forget, St Louis actually came out and controlled the first six minutes on Saturday night, taking its cue from a revved-up crowd seeing the first finals game in the city since 1970. The Blues outshot Boston 5-0 out of the gate, but Rusk was up to the challenge. Boston converted its first power play in only 21 seconds and gradually choked the life out of the home crowd. It's "NOW or NEVER" for the Blues in Game 4. That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 8:07 ET. he Toronto Raptors own homecourt advantage in the NBA Finals but the Golden St Warriors entered the Finals as the favorite. After all, the Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles. Game 1 was Toronto's first-ever NBA Finals appearance, while Golden State's was playing in the team's 23rd Finals game since since 2015. The Warriors had won 12 straight playoff Game 1s, while the Raptors took the court just 3-15 in playoff openers . However, Toronto shot 50.6 percent from the floor and got strong performances from starters Pascal Siakam (32-8-5) Kawhi Leonard (23-8-5) and Marc Gasol (20 & 7), plus Fred VanVleet added 15 points off the bench in a 118-109 Game 1 victory. Curry had 34 points (his SIXTH straight 30-plus effort) and Thompson added 21 but Golden St's other three starters combined for just 18 points on 4 of 18 shooting. Green accounted for 10 of those points (he had another triple-double at 10-10-10), but shot just 2 of 9. The Warriors are still missing Kevin Durant (calf) and swingman Andre Iguodala (calf) is banged up. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) played for the first time since the first round in Game 1 but managed three points in eight minutes off the bench. His status is unclear. Siakam scored a postseason career-high in points on 14-of-17 shooting in Game 1, as KD's defense may have been missed more than his offense.That said, can Siakam possibly play that well again? How about Gasol or VanVleet? Leonard was solid in Game 1 but there remain 'whispers' that he's less than 100 percent, physically. Looking at Game 2, the Warriors are not in panic mode following the early loss. "The experience helps," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "Winning multiple championships helps because you have seen it all. There's also just the knowledge that you've been here before. You've been down. We have been up 3-1 and lost a series. We have been down 3-1 and won a series. Everything in between. So, nothing is going to catch these guys off guard, and they are very accustomed to the rhythm and tone of a seven-game series and how long it takes, how many twists and turns there are." My bet says the champs rise to the challenge and head back to Oakland tied at one-all.
Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-19 | Cubs +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals managed just five hits on Friday, but TWO of them came in the bottom of the 10th as Kolten Wong doubled and scored on Matt Carpenter’s walk-off single. The 2-1 victory gave St Louis its winning streak (Cards won 5-3 at Philly on Thursday) since putting together FIVE straight wins from April 27 thru May 1. Last night, the Cardinals waited out a rain delay of over three hours before scoring three times in the sixth inning en route to a 7-4 win. St Louis now owns its first three-game winning streak in over a month and can complete its first series sweep since April 22-24 when the Cards wrap up a three-game set against the visiting Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Saturday's defeat was Chicago's SEVENTH in nine games, drooping the 31-25 Cubs into second place in the NL Central for the first time in nearly a month (Brewers moved a half-game ahead of them with a 12-10 win in 13 innings on Saturday at Pittsburgh). A pair of veterans square off in the series finale, with Cole Hamels (4-1, 4.02 ERA) taking the mound for the Cubs and Adam Wainwright (4-5, 4.94 ERA) for the Cards. Hamels has completed just four innings in each of his last two starts, while giving up nine runs on 16 hits in those contests (10.13 ERA). He gave up six runs on seven hits in four innings his last time out against the Houston Astros, suffering his first loss of 2019 (11 starts), 6-5. Wainwright recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts this past Tuesday at Philadelphia but was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs in six innings (Phils won ). Wainwright was limited to just eight starts in 2018 due to various injuries but this marks his 12th start of 2019.. Wainwright is 15-11 with a 4.16 ERA in 46 appearances (37 starts) against the Cubs (Cards are 22-15 in those starts). He has 206 strikeouts in 233.2 innings, which marks his highest such totals against any opponent. In fact, the only team he has more wins against is the Milwaukee Brewers (16). However, while the 37-year-old Wainwright seems healthy this year, he enters this game with a 6.33 ERA in five May starts. The Cards' Saturday win ended an eight-series winless stretch (had been 0-7-1 since taking three of four at Washington from Apr 29-May 2) but a sweep may be too much to ask. Hamels may be just 5-5 in 15 career starts vs the Cubs (teams are 9-6) but he owns an excellent 2.51 ERA in those starts. Cubs win "with room to spare!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Cubs +124 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals managed just five hits on Friday, but TWO of them came in the bottom of the 10th as Kolten Wong doubled and scored on Matt Carpenter’s walk-off single. The 2-1 victory gave St Louis has a winning streak (cards won 5-3 at Philly on Thursday) for the first time since putting together FIVE straight wins from April 27 thru May 1. The 31-24 Cubs are barely hanging on to first place by one-half game in the NL Central with SIX losses in their last eight contests, after going 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Friday. The long-time rivals meet again Saturday night, with Jose Quintana (4-4, 3.73 ERA) squaring off against Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.77 ERA). Quintana allowed season highs of six runs (five earned) and 12 hits across 5.1 innings last Sunday in a 10-2 loss against Cincinnati. That outing marked his 10th start of the season. He allowed eight ERs (over just three innings) in his first start of 2019 but in the eight starts since that opener, was 4-2 (team was 6-2), posting a 2.32 ERA over 50.1 innings. So it's fair to ask, what happened last Sunday? Flaherty was 8-9 (3.34 ERA) over 28 starts in his rookie season (2018). He enters this contest having strung together three straight quality starts, including last Sunday when he limited Atlanta to three hits over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in a no-decision (Cards lost 4-3 in 10 innings). The 23-year-old is pitching well, allowing three or fewer ERs in six straight outings, plus owns 65 strikeouts over 59.2 innings on the season. Even with back-to-back wins to end the month, the Cards struggled to an 8-18 record in May. The Cardinals opened May at 10 games over .500 but I guess it's not all bad news that at 28-28 as June opens, they are only 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs. The Cards are trying to end an eight-series winless stretch (0-7-1 since taking three of four at Washington from Apr 29-May 2) with a Saturday (or Sunday) win. I won't "jump ahead" to Sunday but will say a win does NOT come tonight for the Cards. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Nationals v. Reds -129 | 5-2 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET. The Washington Nationals have been a huge nemesis for the Cincinnati Reds over the past three years, as Friday's 9-3 Cincinnati win gave the Reds just a 4-16 record in their last 20 meetings with the Nationals.However, there are reasons to think the Reds could turn things around vs the Nats. After all, Washington has been one of MLB’s biggest disappointments through the first two months of the season with 24-33 record, giving them MLB's worst moneyline mark at -$1,837. As for the Reds, after a 5-12 start, they've gone a more than respectable 22-18. Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.18 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and former-Nat Tanner Roark (4-3, 3.20 ERA) for Cincy. Feede started the season by making five appearances in relief but has now turned in a pair of solid starts, picking up the win against Miami on Sunday by blanking the Marlins on four hits over five innings. Washington's first-round pick in the 2014 draft, he also went five innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets in his previous turn, giving up one run on four hits. Fedde will be facing Cincinnati for the first time. Roark is in his first season in Cincinnati, after spending the past six years with the Washington Nationals. Roark halted a two-start losing streak at the Chicago Cubs his last time out, striking out season-high nine, while permitting six hits over five scoreless innings to earn a 10-2 win. Roark enters this contest having allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts in 2019. I'll give Fedde his due for two solid starts but he entered this season just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA in 14 career starts. A HUGE issue for the Nats is that Fedde has lasted just five innings in each of his starts, meaning the Nats will likely need at least FOUR innings from their bullpen, which owns a MLB-worst W-ERA of 7.06! As for Roark, after posting a 4.08 ERA and a .289 BAA in April, he went 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA over five starts in May, holding opponents to a .233 BAA. This marks his first-ever start against his former team and I'll back Roark and the ever-improving Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -159 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Tex Rangers at 4:05 ET. The Rangers evened their series with the Royals on Friday with a 6-2 victory. Joey Gallo hit his first career grand slam to highlight a six-run sixth inning as Texas won for the third time in four games, after losing three in a row. The Royals lost for the SEVENTH time in nine games to fall to 19-38 (only the 18-39 Orioles own a worse record). The 28-27 Rangers have won EIGHT of their last 10 home games as they host KC in this third contest of a four-game series on Saturday night. Homer Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) gets the nod for KC and Lance Lynn (6-4, 4.66 ERA) for Texas. Bailey is coming off a 1-14 (6.09 ERA) season in 2018, where the Reds went 1-19 in his starts (lost a MLB-high $1,748 vs the moneyline). Bailey allowed a run and three hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision at the Chicago White Sox on Monday (KC lost 2-1). However, it was a solid rebound after back-to-back losses in which he gave up a total of 11 runs on 12 hits (including three HRs) in just six innings.Bailey's lone career start vs Texas came back on May 16, when he allowed six runs (five earned) over 4.1 innings of a 16-1 loss. The veteran Lynn has completed at least six innings in six consecutive starts, allowing three runs or less in the last four. He has 21 strikeouts over 13 innings in his last two outings, including 10 in a six-inning effort at Seattle his last time out. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed two runs or less in SEVEN of his 11 starts. Bailey may own two career no-hitters but he's 71-82 in his career, with a 4.61 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In contrast, Lynn' s having a 'bounce-back" season and the righty will face a KC team that is just 21-57 on the road vs right-handers since the start of 2018, including 5-17 in 2019, a 77% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Phillies v. Dodgers -157 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. Bryce Harper is heating up (he has 11 extra-base hits and 16 RBIs over his last 13 contests) and as the Phillis get set to open a three-game series in LA against the Dodgers, Philadelphia has won NINE of its last 13 to move three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East with a 33-23 record. Meanwhile, the red-hot LA Dodgers (winners of 12 of their last 15 games) have taken a commanding lead in the NL West with a 38-19 record (lead the Padres by 8 1/2 games). Philadelphia is 10 games over .500 and has won or split NINE of its last 10 series (7-1-2), while the Dodgers lead all of MLB in victories (38) and lead the NL in runs scored (308 / 5.04 RPG). Taking the mound Friday night will be Jake Arrieta (5-4, 3.60 ERA) and Kenta Maeda (6-2, 3.67 ERA). Arrieta recorded his first win since April 27 against Milwaukee on Saturday, allowing two runs with eight strikeouts and one walk over eight innings of a 7-2 win. His previous start was also solid (6 IP / 8 hits / 1 ERs in a no-decision) but the Phillies had lost FOUR of his five prior to that, as the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner allowed 18 ERs in 28 innings over that span, posting a 5.79 ERA. Arrieta is is 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts vs the Dodgers (teams are 4-5). Maeda came off the injured list this past Saturday and won his THIRD straight start by allowing three runs over five innings in a 11-7 victory over Pittsburgh. Maedea takes the mound tonight having allowed just those three ERs over his three straight wins, posting a 1.53 ERA with a 22-2 KW ratio. He is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA in six starts vs the Phillies (Dodgers are 4-2). The Phillies are in the midst of a 23-game stretch against the Dodgers, the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs, the wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers as well as three teams who will all enter Friday within a game of .500, the Colorado Rockies, St Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres. Philly is 10-7 after 17 games of that stretch but will be hard-pressed to win a game in LA. The Dodgers lead all of MLB this season with a 22-7 home record, where they average 5.66 RPG. Friday's starter, Kenta Maeda, owns a 5.64 ERA in six road outings in 2019 but in four home starts is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Good enough for me to play LA. Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Astros v. A's +110 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season by going 2-5 on a seven-game road trip. However, the Astros rebounded with a 10-game winning streak. On the morning of May 8th, Houston sat 21-15 but then ripped off a second 10-game winning streak in 2019 during a 12-1 stretch over 13 games. Houston is just 4-4 over its last eight as it opens a three-game series in Oakland but does own a 7 1/2-game lead over the Athletics. Oakland climbed in the AL West standings with a 10-game winning streak from May 16-27 but enters this series having lost back-to-back games to the LA Angels, including a 12-7 loss in 11 innings on Wednesday. Tonight's pitching matchup features a Brad Peacock (5-2, 3.19 ERA) and Mike Fiers (4-3, 5.00 ERA). Peacock has been dominating of late, allowing just one run and 12 hits across 23 innings over his last four starts. He's 3-0 (team is 4-0) in that stretch, posting an 0.39 ERA with a KW ratio of 32-6. Peacock starred in the team's run to a 2017 World Series title (13-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 34 appearances, including 21 starts) but last year pitched out of the bullpen in 60 of 61 appearances. He's back in the rotation for 2019 (nine of 11 appearances have been starts) and his recent form bodes well. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as he entered his no-hitter back on May 7 with a 6.81 ERA. However, Fiers' turnaround began in the previous two starts to that gem. He enters tonight's contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last SIX starts (2.84 ERA). If Oakland wants to get back in the race in the AL West, a strong performance this weekend against Astros would help. Peacock does NOT seem vulnerable right now but I'm not completely sold on him. As for Fiers, he's made just five home starts in 2019 (DON'T count a 'home game' in Japan against the Mariners), going 4-1. In the four wins, he's allowed just three ERs on 11 hits over 27 innings (1.00 ERA). The A's are 11-4 their last 15 at home (even after B2B losses to the LAA) and unlike last year, when Houston went a MLB-best 57-24 on the road, the Astros are a modest 15-12 away from home in 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Twins +113 v. Rays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 113 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* AL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins are MLB's highest-scoring team but it was the Tampa Bay bats which dominated Thursday's contest (the first of a four-game series), as the Rays won 14-3. The Rays jumped to an 11-0 lead after four innings and pounded out 16 hits. Austin Meadows extended his hitting streak to seven games by going 3-for-4, as Tampa Bay made it SEVEN wins in a row, closing within a half-game of the New York Yankees atop the AL East. Minnesota lost for only the THIRD time in 15 games but still owns the MLB's best record (37-18), as well as a 9 1/2-game lead in the AL Central. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.20 ERA) gets the nod Friday for Minnesota and he'll be opposed by Tamp Bay's Ryne Stanek (0-1, 2.97 ERA), one of the team's designated "openers." Berrios is one of THREE Minnesota pitchers with seven wins, after picking up the victory his last time out against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed four runs (just one earned) on nine hits over 6.2 innings, as the Twins beat the White Sox 11-4. Berrios has been reached for 13 runs (10 earned) over his last three starts (5.29 ERA) but the Twins have won two of them. They are 9-2 in his 11 starts in 2019, giving him the 5th-best moneyline mark among starters (+$671). Stanek allowed one hit over two scoreless innings against Toronto last Tuesday, marking the 10th time in his last 12 appearances while serving as Tampa Bay's opener that he has not surrendered a run. The former first-round pick has been superb in 12 appearances at Tropicana Field, sporting a 0.50 ERA (he owns a 6.57 road ERA) while holding opposition to a .161 batting average. I will note that the Rays are 11-4 with Stanek "opening" but I'm still not convinced that the record represents any real pattern (we'll by season's end how it works out). After all, he "opened" 29 times in 2018, with the Rays going 15-14 (-$14)! Yes, Berrios has struggled in his career against Tampa Bay, compiling a 0-2 record and 8.44 ERA in three career starts (team is 0-3) but Tampa Bay's current roster is batting a collective .211 against Berrios, plus he will be pitching on SIX days' rest. Expect Minnesota's lineup to "get back to business. The Twins lead all of MLB in runs scored (5.95 per), OPS (.851) and HRs (106), while they rank second in team BA (.272). In contrast, expect the Tampa bats 'cool off' after a 16-hit, 14-run effort. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the GS Warriors at 9:00 ET. The NBA Finals open Thursday and naturally, no one is surprised the Warriors are playing for their THIRD straight championship and FOURTH in five year. However, the Toronto Raptors will take the court tonight to play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. The Warriors will open the series without Kevin Durant, who has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury. Center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." The Raptors have ridden Kawhi Leonard (31.2 & 8.8) to the Finals and Toronto has homecourt advantage in the series due to a better regular-season record than Golden State. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings, 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov 29 and 113-93 on Dec 12 in Oakland. Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the LA Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part."The bottom line is, do the Warriors even need Cousins (or Durant, for that matter)? Since KD went down in game 5 of the Houston series, Curry has been nearly unstoppable. He's averaged 35.8 PPG in the Warriors' last five games, never scoring less than 33 points or more than 37, in any game (talk about consistency). He capped that five-game run with a triple-double (37-13-11) in Golden St's Game 4 win over Portland (capping a 4-0 sweep). Draymond Green joined Curry in that contest with his own triple-double (18-14-11), marking the first time in NBA history that two teammates each delivered a triple-double in the same game. Green been a 'beats' since Game 6 of the LAC series, averaging 14.6-11.4-8.5 over an 11-game span, with eight double-doubles (including four triple-doubles). Throw in Klay Thompson (22.6 PPG since KD's been out) and the Warriors are just fine with or without KD or surely, Cousins. Leonard's performance in the 2019 playoffs has again having him being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA. That said, only Siakam (18.7 & 9.0) and Lowry (14.2-5.2-6.4) join him in double digits plus neither player as participated in an NBA Final. VanVleet comes in averaging 16.0 PPG over his last three games, connecting on 68% of his shots. Pause for a moment and note that even with this three-game outburst, VanVleet is averaging only 6.0 PPG on 35.9% shooting in Toronto's 18 playoff games. Yes, Leonard has led Toronto to where it has "never gone to before" but I won't overlook the team's 3-15 record in playoff openers (1-2 this postseason), especially against the champion Warriors. The Raptors have faced a series deficit in each round of the playoffs so far this year, so what changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-19 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Rockies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz D'backs at 8:40 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks entered the Memorial Day on a five-game losing streak but rediscovered their offense at Oracle Park against the San Francisco Giants, winning 18-2 on Friday, 10-4 on Saturday and 6-2 on Sunday. They opened a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Memorial Day at 28-25. The Rockies entered the series at 24-27, still looking to overcome a 3-12 start. However, Colorado has taken the first two of this four-game set, winning 4-3 in 11 innings on Monday and 6-2 last night, The Rockies are now 4-1 on their 10-game homestand and have won eight of their last 11 at Coors Field Robbie Ray (4-1, 3.26 ERA) will take the mound for the D'backs and Jeff Hoffman (0-1, 8.10 ERA) for the Rockies. Ray may not be the dominant pitcher he was in 2017 (15-5 with a 2.89 ERA) but he is unbeaten in his last NINE trips to the mound. He's posted a modest four wins in that span (Arizona is 6-3) but note that the D'bcks have won FIVE of his last six starts, with Ray posting a very good ERA of 2.64. He was victorious at Coors Field on May 3, when he gave up five runs - one earned - and six hits over 5.2 innings but Ray is just 4-4 with a 5.43 ERA in 13 career starts against Colorado (teams are 5-8). As for Hoffman, he will be making his third start of the season and only the 26th of his career. He was called up Friday from Triple-A Albuquerque to face the Baltimore Orioles. He lasted only five innings, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two HRs) but was rescued from a loss by a late Colorado rally. Trusting Hoffman here would be a hard thing to do, as he's 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in four career appearances (two starts / 14.03 ERA in those starts) against the Diamondbacks. Ray is coming on and seems headed for a solid season and I will add that he's pitched fairly well at Coors Field, posting a 3.69 ERA in six starts. Colorado is no longer a feared team at Coors, as even after an 8-3 run at home, the Rockies are just 13-12 (-$71) in their home park in 2019. With Hoffman on the mound, the Rockies deserve to be the underdog and I'm backing Ray. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-19 | Nationals v. Braves -159 | 14-4 | Loss | -159 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My 7* Late-Breaker is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Washington Nationals have been one of MLB’s biggest disappointments through the first two months of the season. They are currently are 23-32, giving them MLB's worst moneyline mark at -$1,872 (almost $700 worse than any other team!). However, Tuesday’s 5-4 victory gives them FOUR wins in their last five games. LF Juan Soto extended his hitting streak to 12 games on Tuesday and is batting .444 with nine runs scored and 11 RBI in that span. Atlanta lost for just the fifth time in its past 17 games, after an uncharacteristically shaky outing from one of its starters. Max Fried gave up four runs on nine hits for the Braves, who began Tuesday sporting a 2.80 starters ERA in May. Speaking of starters, Anibal Sanchez (0-6, 5.10 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.33 ERA) for Atlanta. Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he's struggled in 2019, after signing a two-year deal in the off-season. Sanchez had lost five consecutive outings until leaving in the second inning on May 16 against the New York Mets due to a hamstring injury (Nats would win, 7-6). He's yet to win through nine starts (team is 3-6) and will be activated from the injured list after missing two starts with that left hamstring injury. Gausman steps to the mound for Atlanta, He was just 5-8 (4.43 ERA) in 21 starts for Baltimore last season (Orioles were 6-15, -$967 in his 21 starts) but after getting 'rescued' by the Braves, went 5-3 (2.87 ERA) in 10 starts (Atlanta went 7-3). He's won just once in five May starts but he's allowed no more than three ERs in any outing this month, while holding opponents to a .224 batting average and 15 hits in 18 innings over his last three starts (3.00 ERA and the team is 3-0!). Sanchez is is 5-11 with a 4.99 ERA in 18 career starts against Atlanta (teams are 5-13), while Gausman is 4-1 with a 4.42 ERA in six career stats vs Washington (teams are 4-2). of greater importance is current form. Gausman has pitched well in May (see above) plus his home ERA is 3.82 (compared to 5.01 on the road) plus he owns an outstanding home WHIP of 0.98. In contrast, Sanchez, who not only hasn't pitched in two weeks, is 0-5 in five road starts in 2019, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Price is a 'little high" but it's worth playing. Good luck...Larry
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05-28-19 | Nationals v. Braves -108 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Washington Nationals dropped the series finale at home against Miami 3-2 on Memorial Day but did take the first three against the NL's worst team. However, the Nationals had dropped SIX of seven entering the series with Miami and will head to Atlanta for a two-game series at just 22-32, The Braves have won 12 of their last 16 contests and sit 30-24, eight games ahead of the Nationals in the NL East standings. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.25 ERA) vs. Braves LH Max Fried (7-2, 2.88 ERA). Strasburg owns an 0.99 WHIP (it would be a career-best) plus is averaging 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. However, the team is just 5-6 (-$299) in his 11 starts. He owns a 2.62 ERA in five May starts while holding opponents to a .212 batting average and owns a 39-8 KW ratio but is just 2-2 (team is 2-3). Meanwhile, Fried has emerged as a potential All-Star through the first two months of the season. He came out of the bullpen for his first two appearances of 2019 but has made 10 consecutive starts. He's posted a 2.96 ERA in those 10 starts since joining the rotation (he's 7-2 and the team 7-3), with 51 strikeouts, 11 walks and a 1.12 WHIP over 54.2 innings. He enters the week tied for the NL lead in wins while ranking sixth in ERA and 11th in WHIP (1.12). Strasburg has a very mediocre history against Atlanta, going 11-11 with a 4.07 ERA over 30 career starts (Nats are 14-16). Washington is just 9-17 on the road in 2019 and face a tough lefty in Fried. The Nats are 5-8 vs left-handers so far, including 1-5 on the road, averaging 3.65 RPG. That's after going 4-12 vs lefties on the road in night games last season, averaging only 2.7 RPG. Atlanta is the play. Good luck..Larry |
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05-28-19 | Giants +106 v. Marlins | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* 'Battle for the NL Basement' is on the SF Giants at 7:10 ET. The San Francisco Giants have lost five in a row, dropping a season-worst 10 games under .500 at 22-32. The Giants begin an 11-day, nine-game swing on Tuesday with the opener of a three-game series versus the Miami Marlins, who own an NL-worst 17-34 record. "We've got to huddle up here," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said on the heels of Sunday's 6-2 setback to Arizona. "(Monday's day off) will give them a chance to wash this one off. This road trip I'm hoping brings them together and gets us back to playing the kind of ball we need to play." As for Miami, the Marlins avoided a four-game sweep in Washington on Monday, with a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Nats. Jeff Samardzija (2-3, 3.27 ERA) and Trevor Richards (1-5, 4.14 ERA) will take the ball in the first of three games in the series. Samardzija lost his second straight start after allowing six runs (none earned) on four hits in six innings of a 9-2 setback to Atlanta on Wednesday. However, despite his last win coming back on April 23, the 34-year-old has been the Giants' best pitcher. He's allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of them, allowing four ERs in the other two. Richards opened the 2019 season going 0-5 through his first eight starts (Marlins were 0-8). However, he answered his first win of the season (8-6 over the Mets on May 17) with a strong showing this past Thursday, allowing just one run in 5.2 innings before exiting with a no-decision at Detroit (Marlins won 5-2). In this "meeting of losers," I'm siding with the Gianst and Samardzija. The Marlins are a woeful 12-26 vs righties in 2019, averaging a pathetic 2.9 RPG. Samardzija owns a 5-2 record with a 3.62 ERA in 18 career appearances (nine starts) against the Marlins and as noted above, he's been San Francisco most consistent pitcher in 2019. Giants get the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-19 | Pirates +105 v. Reds | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Pit Pirtaes at 6:40 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates halted a three-game slide by winning the opener of Monday's doubleheader against the Reds (their fourth straight road victory) but got routed 8-1 in the nightcap. The Pirates again take on the Reds in Cincinnati tonight, for the third contest of their four-game series. Cincy's doubleheader split continued the team's current trend of alternating wins and losses that has been in effect over their last 11 games. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Jordan Lyles (5-1, 2.81 ERA) and Lucas Sims (no record in 2019). Lyles has been 're-born' in Pittsburgh this season with the Pirates. He opened MLB 2019 with a career record of 31-52 (5.28 ERA). Lyles allowed a season-high six runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings against Colorado in his last outing but the Pirates exploded for 14 runs, as Lyles earned his third straight win. However, that effort was an outlier, as he's allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his nine starts this season, with Pittsburgh going 8-1. His moneyline mark of +$880, leads all starters. In contrast, Lucas Sims is being brought up from Triple-A Louisville to make his 11th major-league start and first since 2017 with Atlanta. He was a first-round pick of the Braves in the 2012 draft and was acquired by the Reds in July of 2018 as part of a package for Adam Duvall. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings in three relief appearances for the Reds last year. Sims has made nine starts for Louisville this year, going 3-0 with a 4.06 ERA. One has to start trusting Lyles these days plus there is no reason to trust Sims, who is 3-6 with a 6.01 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 23 career appearances (10 starts). Pirates get the cash! Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Rangers +111 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 9:10 ET. The Texas Rangers had won five straight and EIGHT of nine before suffering back-to-back losses against the Los Angeles Angels. Texas allowed two runs in the bottom of the 9th on Saturday to lose 3-2 and then on Sunday, built a four-run lead before allowing SIX runs in the seventh inning to another one-run decision, 7-6. The Rangers move on to Seattle to open a three-game series against the Mariners on Memorial Day. The Mariners return home after going 0-6 in road trip against the Rangers and A's. Sunday's 7-1 loss was Seattle's SIXTH consecutive defeat, its ninth in 10 contests and 13th in 16 outings. Anyone remember that Seattle opened the 2019 season 13-2? Lance Lynn (6-3, 4.67 ERA) and Tommy Milone (0-1, 3.60 ERA) square off in Monday's opener. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed two runs or less in SIX of his 10 starts. The Rangers are 7-3 in his 10 starts and Lynn has pitched better on the road (3.86 ERA) than at home (5.92). Milone was 13-10 and 12-9 for Oakland in 2012 and 2013 but over the last six seasons, pitching for SIX different teams, he's just 20-19. Milone began the 2019 season with Triple-A Tacoma and went 4-2 with one shutout and a 3.83 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance. He made his season debut (opposite Lynn) this past Tuesday and suffered the loss despite allowing only two runs on three hits over five innings. Typically, I like to play the "loser" in these quick "re-hooks" but Milone hasn't done ANYTHING in going on SIX years. As for Lynn, he's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA against Seattle, with two of those wins coming in 2019. He allowed two runs on five hits while registering a season-high 11 strikeouts over seven innings in a 5-3 home victory last Tuesday. He also beat the Mariners 14-1 in Seattle back on April 28, a start which began a stretch during which Lynn has given up three runs or fewer four times while winning FOUR of five starts. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Brewers +109 v. Twins | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins open a two-game interleague series with the Milwaukee Brewers, owners of the best record in MLB (36-16) and have outscored opponents by 111 runs. The Twins lead the majors in runs scored at 315 (6.06 RPG) and HRs (104), Their 7-0 victory on Sunday over the Chicago White Sox was their SIXTH straight and increased their lead in the AL Central to 10 games. The Twins look for a 12th time in 13 games when they host the Brewers, who avoided a three-game sweep with a 9-1 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Milwaukee checks in at 30-24, 1 1/2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 2.39 ERA) gets the ball for the Brewers and Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.43 ERA) for the Twins. Gonzalez has pitched well in his five starts since signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. He suffered his first defeat of the season last time out, allowing three runs on three hits and as many walks in five innings against Cincinnati (Reds won 3-0). The lefty had yielded a total of just four runs in his first four starts, although I should note that he has yet to complete six innings this year. Pineda comes in off three straight quality starts, winning his last two. I'm just not sure about Pineda, who has great stuff but just a 44-44 career record (4.15 ERA). Despite pitching for the team with MLB's best record, the Twins are just 5-5 in his starts, as he's posted a 5.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .276 BAA. The Twins are 31-11 this season against righties but just 5-5 vs lefties. I expect Gonzalez to give them trouble and will "take the price" with Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Diamondbacks +103 v. Rockies | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz D'backs at 3:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Coors Field for a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies. The 28-25 D'backs come off a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, which ended a five-game losing streak. Sunday's 8-7 walk-off win over Baltimore helped, but the Rockies are still looking to overcome a 3-12 start (they sit just 24-27). Both teams are trying to stay in the NL West race but the 35-18 Dodgers lead Arizona by seven games and Colorado by 10 games.. Zach Greinke (6-2, 2.89 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and John Gray (4-4, 4.62 ERA) for Colorado. Greinke has been a workhorse for the Diamondbacks since lasting just 3.2 innings in the team's season opener against the LA Dodgers, allowing seven ERs. He has pitched at least six innings in 10 consecutive starts and has lasted into the eighth inning twice. During that span, he's 6-1 (team is 7-3), posting a 2.12 ERA. Gray got off to a poor start in 2019 (0-3, 5.28 ERA) but he has been Colorado's best starter behind German Marquez, as of late. He is coming off a seven-inning win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday night (9-3), making him 4-1 with a 4.39 ERA over his last seven starts (team is 5-2). However, Gray is no match for Greinke, who would have two more wins if not for blown saves by the Arizona bullpen. What's more, Greinke has faced the Rockies more than any other team (31 times in the regular season), going 12-6 with a 3.78 ERA in the regular season. He's been even better at Coors Field, going 5-1 in 12 starts. Meanwhile, Gray is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in seven starts vs Arizona, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against them here at Coors field. Gray takes the mound against an Arizona lineup which just scored 34 runs on 44 hits in a three-game sweep at San Francisco. Look out below! Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Braves +140 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 140 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:05 ET. The Cards trailed 3-2 in the eighth inning last night, looking to lose for the 16th time in their last 21 games. However, a four0run uprising gave them the 6-3 win. Jedd Gyorko, who entered Saturday's contest hitting just .167 with only seven singles and two RBI, capped the rally with a three-run HR. The Braves had entered Saturday’s contest 24-2 when leading after seven innings this season (you can't make this stuff up). The Cardinals have gone 0-5-1 in their last six series, their longest such winless streak since 2017, but now have a chance to win the series in tonight's rubber match Taking the mound Sunday night will be Julio Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.19 ERA). Teheran struggled in April, going 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA but takes the mound for his fifth start in May, having allowed juts two ERs on 10 hits over 22.2 innings of his first four starts this month (0.79 ERA and .132 BAA). Flaherty started poorly in 2019 as well, allowing four or more earned ERs in three of his first five starts but owns a 3.34 ERA while holding opponents to a .188 batting average over his last five outings (note: team is just 2-3). Both pitchers enter this contest pitching well, although Teheran has the better recent resume. I'll stick with teh vet in this one, as Teheran 3 owns a 2.77 ERA in seven career starts against St Louis plus the Cards have won just SIX of their last 21 and haven't won a series since taking three of four at Washington (April 29-May 2). Why win one now? Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +110 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My 9* Division Dominator (NL West) is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks began the weekend on a five-game losing streak but have rediscovered their offense at Oracle Park against the host San Francisco Giants. They've taken the first two contests of the three-game series by a combined score of 28-6. The D'backs set a season high for runs scored in Friday’s 18-2 rout and followed by cruising to a 10-4 win on Saturday. San Francisco has now lost four in a row and at 21-30, finds itself 12 1/2 games out in the NL West (D'backs are 27-25). Luke Weaver (3-3, 3.14 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona, opposed by San Francisco's Shaun Anderson (0-0, 3.60 ERA). The two are former college rivals, as Weaver pitched at Florida St and Anderson at Florida. Weaver was a hard-luck loser Monday against San Diego, after allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings but taking the 2-1 loss. He owns a 2.44 ERA and 55-to-8 KW ratio over his last eight starts (since April 12), although the D'backs are a modest 4-4 in those starts. Anderson was acquired from Boston in the 2017 trade for Eduardo Nunez and had posted a 4.11 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Sacramento before his promotion. However, he has pitched well in two starts since joining the Giants’ rotation May 15, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) with eight strikeouts over 10 innings Giants have won BOTH games!). I realize Weaver has put up impressive numbers lately but I'm still not sold. Anderson has been a nice surprise for the Giants and I'm expecting the team that's scored 28 runs son 34 hits the last two games, will "return to earth." That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Reds v. Cubs -156 | 10-2 | Loss | -156 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The first-place Chicago Cubs (30-20) beat the Reds 8-6 on Saturday, after falling 6-5 on Friday. The Reds battled back to forge a tie twice in Saturday's contest but the loss dropped them to just 8-22 in their last 30 contests at Wrigley Field. The rubber game of the three-game series goes Sunday, as Chicago looks to avenge a series loss against the Reds earlier this month, in which it dropped two out of three games on the road. The Cubs have won 18 of their last 26 games and have posted a 10-1-2 record in their past 13 series. Meanwhile, Cincinnati will try to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since May 12-14. The Reds have scored a half-dozen runs or more in three straight games but have allowed 24 runs in that span. The pitching matchup features Tanner Roark (3-3, 3.51 ERA) vs Jose Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA). Roark is in his first season in Cincinnati, after spending the past six years with the Washington National. He owns a 2.78 ERA, while limiting opponents to a .205 batting average in splitting four decisions this month, after posting 4.08 and .289 marks in April. However, Roark comes in having lost back-to-back outings against the Cubs and Dodgers (4.50 ERA). Quintana will make his 10th start of the season. He allowed eight ERs (over just three innings) in his first start of 2019 but in the eight starts since, is 4-2 (team is 6-2), posting a 2.32 ERA in 50.1 innings. I noted Cincy's woes at Wrigley (8-22 the last 30) and will add here that against lefties on the road in day games, the Reds are an abysmal 6-26 (that's an 81% "go-against") since the start of the 2018 season (Reds are averaging just 3.18 RPG). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Phillies v. Brewers -156 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 2:10 ET. Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 NL MVP, is 12-for-29 with a pair of HRs and nine RBI during a seven-game hitting streak after hitting a solo shot in Saturday’s 7-2 victory. He's not alone, as he has plenty of teammates who are swinging hot bats as well, helping the Phillies win SEVEN of their last nine (Phils are averaging 5.86 RPG in their seven wins). Philadelphia leads the NL East at 31-21, 2 1/2 games up on the Braves. As for the Brewers, they have now lost three of their last four at home, after winning EIGHT of their previous 10 at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 29-24, 2 1/2 games back of the NL Central-leading Cubs. Philly goes for a three-game sweep on Sunday, as Zach Eflin (5-4, 2.76 ERA) squares off against Brandon Woodruff (6-1, 3.51 ERA). Eflin posted his fourth quality start in five outings Tuesday, when he limited the Chicago Cubs to one run on six hits and four walks over six innings of a no-decision (Phils lost, 3-2). Eflin has had a very good season so far, as he has given up three runs or less in SEVEN of his 10 starts. Eflin gave up four runs over five innings in an 11-3 loss to Milwaukee last week, falling to 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three career starts vs the Brewers. Woodruff opened the season with a 5-3 mark in 27 career appearances (just 12 starts) but his six wins leads all Milwaukee starters in 2019. He has strung together five consecutive wins in his last seven trips to the mound (team is 6-1), allowing two runs or less in SIX of those seven starts. He did not get a decision in his last start May 19, even though he held Atlanta to two runs across a season-high eight innings. Woodruff has not permitted an earned run in 10 career innings versus the Phillies. No knock on Eflin but Woodruff comes in on the better roll, allowing just five ERs over 30 innings of his last five starts (Milwaukee is 5-0 and Woodruff's ERA is 1.50). He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he pitched a season-high eight innings in his last outing. NO sweep here, as the Brewers get the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Rangers +116 v. Angels | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the Tex Rangers at 10:07 ET. The Texas Rangers came back for a 4-3 win last night in Anaheim over the Angels, the team's EIGHTH win in its last nine, overall. Shin-Soo Choo led off the contest with his fourth HR in seven games and Hunter Pence delivered a two-run single in the seventh inning to erase a 3-1 deficit. 25-23 Texas has now won three straight on the road, following a five-game skid away from home. Meanwhile, the 22-28 Angels have lost FIVE consecutive games and SEVEN of nine It's a 'battle' of lefties on Saturday, as Mike Minor (5-3, 2.64 ERA) takes on Tyler Skaggs (4-4, 5.01 ERA). Minor made 65 relief appearances for KC in 2017 but the Rangers put him back in the starting rotation in 2018. He made 28 starts last year, going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA. Here in 2019, he's been the team's best starter, going 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 10 starts. He's allowed more than two runs only THREE times in 10 outings this season, just ONCE in his last five.Minor looks to win a THREE in a row, after allowing three ERs runs with 14 strikeouts over 11 innings (2,45 ERA) in back-to-back wins over Kansas City on the road and Seattle at home. As for Skaggs, he's allowed 16 ERs on 19 hits and seven walks over his last three starts (15.1 innings), posting a 9.39 ERA. That comes after he had allowed two or fewer runs in FOUR of his previous five starts. Skaggs gave up just one run on five hits over 6.1 innings of a 5-1 win over Texas back on April 6 improving to 5-2 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers (team is 7-4 ). However, Minor tossed his first career shutout back on April 16 against the Angels (5-0), permitting three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in improving to 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in four starts (teams are a PERFECT 4-0 ) and two relief appearances vs the club. That 4-0 record in lifetime starts is 'sweet' but of greater interest is the fact that the Angels are only 4-14 vs left-handers in 2019 (a 78% "go-against"), including 0-6 (a 100% "go-against), averaging 3.5 RPG in home night games! Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Toronto had a great chance to win Game 1 of this series but the Bucks outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-run for a 108-100 victory. Milwaukee then routed Toronto in Game 2, 125-103 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. At the point, the Bucks were 10-1 SU & ATS in the 2019 playoffs. Oh, how things have changed since then! The Raptors have won the past THREE contests, including a 105-99 road win on Thursday that enabled them to take a 3-2 series lead. Kawhi Leonard scored 35 points in Game 5 (his fourth 30-point outing of the series) and has provided Toronto with the big-time performances the club was looking for when it acquired him from the San Antonio Spurs.The Bucks were up by 14 points early in Game 5 but entered the 4th quarter leading by just three. Toronto opened an eight point lead in that final period but Milwaukee tied it at 93-all with 2:44 left. However, it was Toronto which made the plays down the stretch. Milwaukee won a league-best 60 games in the regular season and Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo (25.9-12.3-4.9 this postseason) was adamant that his team will still win the series. "We're not going to fold," Antetokounmpo said afterward. "Come on, man. Best team in the league, man. We're not going to fold. We're going to go in and give it everything we've got. We can't fold. We're going to come back to Milwaukee." Malcolm Brogdon made his first start of the postseason in Game 5 and had 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. PG Eric Bledsoe scored a series-best 20 but neither effort was good enough. "I'm not afraid of the moment," Leonard told reporters afterward. "This is what I work out for in the summer. I'm just trying to win. It's a matter of me being aggressive and don't shy away from anything." Leonard carried Toronto in teh Game 5 win, as Toronto's other four starters shot a combined 10 of 35 from the floor (28.6%). However, backup PG Fred VanVleet scored 21 points on seven 3-pointers in the Game 5 victory and is 10-for-12 from long range over the last two games, after being 2-for-11 over the first three games Milwaukee not only owned the NBA's best regular season record (60-22) but it also owned its best ATS mark, as well (47-34-1). That's a rare 'daily double. Expect Antetokounmpo to play 'HUGE,' Middleton to NOT go 2-of- 9 again plus I love the fact that Milwaukee's starting guards (see above) combined for 38 points. Can Kawhi really do it 'alone?' I'm with Giannis, this series is headed back to Milwaukee for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Braves -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:15 ET. Atlanta shortstop Dansby Swanson is healthy this year, after an injured left wrist kept him off the playoff roster and led to off-season surgery. Swanson extended his hitting streak to seven games with the second multi-HR game of his career in Friday’s 5-2 victory, giving him 10 HRs and 35 RBs in 52 games as the Braves won for the 11th time in 14 games. The 29-23 Braves are closing in on the Philadelphia Phillies at the top of the NL East (Phils lead by 1 1/2 games) but in stark contrast,the Cards have now dropped 15 of their last 20 games, falling to 25-15 (were 20-10 after winning on May 1). The middle game of this three-game series goes Saturday evening, with Mike Soroka (5-1, 1.01 ERA) taking the mound against Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.40 ERA). Soroka continued what's been amazing rookie season (so far) in his last outing. He gave up one run on two hits with no walks over eight innings Monday at San Francisco. He retired the first 15 batters he faced and limited the Giants to two hits, including an 8th-inning HR that ended of his 61-inning streak without allowing one. In his lone career outing vs St Louis, gave up three hits in seven shutout innings to defeat the Cardinals 4-0 on May 15. Hudson snapped a three-start winless streak and earned his first triumph of the month on May 18 at Texas, giving up two runs on five hits with five strikeouts in six innings of an 8-2 victory. Hudson has never faced Atlanta. Hudson has only allowed more than three ERs in ONE of his nine 2019 starts but a closer look at his stat sheet reveals opponents are batting .299 with an .841 OPS against him, while he's allowed nine HRs in 47 innings. Compare that to Soroka, who has allowed just ONE in 44.2 innings this season (just two in 70.1 career innings). Soroka has given up just five ERs over 44.2 innings this season (seven starts), allowing 25 hits for an 0.87 WHIP, 1.01 ERA and .159 BAA. The Braves are 9-3 in his 12 career starts, with Soroka going 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .211 BAA. Can we agree, he's NOT a fluke? Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Mariners v. A's -122 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Division Dominator (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Oakland A's scored five of their runs on HRs in Friday's 6-2 triumph, as they defeated Seattle for the first time in five meetings this season. Matt Olson hit a three-run HR while Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty hit solo shots. After losing back-to-back games in Seattle (May 13 & 14), the A's have ripped off SEVEN straight wins in an eight-game stretch (the team's May 19th game at Detroit was suspended with the A's leading 5-3 in the 7th). Oakland is now back over .500, at 26-25. In stark contrast, the Mariners have "fallen apart" after a blistering 13-2 start to 2019. The Mariners are 0-4 on their six-game road trip and have dropped EIGHT straight away from home. Seattle is now just 10-28 since the team's red-hot start and find themselves 23-30 on the season, 11 1/2 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West. Saturday's pitching matchup features Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi (3-1, 3.43 ERA) and Oakland's Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.05 ERA). Kikuchi, a Japan native, is a 2019 rookie. Kikuchi has had his ups and downs in his first season. However, he has gone 2-0 over his last four starts (team is 3-1), allowing six ERs in 26.2 innings during the stretch (2.03 ERA). Kikuchi has posted a 3.38 ERA in two no-decisions against Oakland but the A's are 2-0. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as he entered his no-hitter back on May 7 with a 6.81 ERA. He's posted two no-decisions since throwing his second career no-hitter, but has pitched well. He opposed Kikuchi on May 13, giving up just one run and two hits over five innings (Mariners won 6-5 in 10 innings) plus started Oakland's May 19th game at Detroit, which was suspended with Oakland leading 5-3 (see above). Fiers allowed three ERs over six innings in that one, meaning he's allowed just four ERs over his last three starts (20 innings), for a 1.80 ERA. I've already noted Seattle's struggles (10-28 run since April 12th) plus I'll add that Fiers has pitched VERY well in Oakland. He's made just four home starts (DON'T count a 'home game' in Japan against the Mariners) and in THREE of the four, he's not allowed a single run in 21 innings (includes his no-hitter vs the Reds). He should get some run support here as well, as the A's draw the left-handed Kikuchi and they are 11-5 vs lefties in 2019, including 7-2 at home. A's win again. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Giants | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Arz D'backs at 10:15 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks were battling the LA Dodgers for first place in the NL West in the first few days of May. The D'backs won their fourth in a row back on May 4 and at 20-13, were right on the Dodgers' heels, as LA was 22-13. However, as all teams enter Memorial Day weekend, the D'backs are on a five-game losing streak and the team's 5-12 run since May 5 has seen them fall back to .500 at 25-25 (Dodgers are in first at 32-18, SEVEN games up on Arizona). The Diamondbacks arrive for a three-game road series in San Francisco on Friday night, facing a Giants team that just lost three of four against Atlanta at home. The Giants are now just 10-15 at Oracle Park and 21-28 on the season (San Francisco sits in last place in the NL West, 10 1/2 games back of the Dodgers). Friday's pitching matchup features a 'battle' of lefties, as Robbie Ray (3-1, 3.25 ERA) goes up against Drew Pomeranz (1-4, 5.66 ERA). Ray may not be the dominant pitcher he was in 2017 (15-5 with a 2.89 ERA) but he is unbeaten in his last eight trips to the mound. He's posted a modest three wins in that span but note that the D'bcks have won FOUR of his last five starts, with Ray posting a very good ERA of 2.49. Pomeranz allowed two runs on two hits and five walks over 4.2 innings of a no-decision at Arizona last Sunday, a game the Giants won, 3-2. It was his first start since returning from a lat strain. The short outing means that Pomeranz has completed more than five innings in just ONE of his eight starts in 2019 (owns a 1.60 WHIP and .275 BAA to go along with his 5.66 ERA). Let me note first that Ray opposed Pomeranz in last Sunday's game and I always like these quick "re-hooks.' Let me add that Pomeranz is 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA in nine career games (six starts / teams are 2-4 and his ERA in those starts is 8.31) vs the Diamondbacks, while Ray owns a 2.98 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Giants. In the lefty vs lefty department, the D'backs are 5-2 and averaging 7.0 RPG vs left-hander in road night games in 2019, while the Giants went just 30-35 vs lefties in 2018 (3.5 RPG) and are 6-10 at home vs lefties in 2019 (averaging 3.6 RPG). Arizona is the BIG play! Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -147 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals opened the month with a 5-1 win at Washington on May 1 (sat 20-10) but have since lost 14 of 19 games to fall to 25-24, 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. The Cardinals salvaged a doubleheader split with Wednesday’s 10-3 victory over Kansas City in the nightcap but have surrendered four runs or more FIVE times while going 3-6 in their past nine contests. Meanwhile, the 28-23 Atlanta Braves opened a seven-game road trip by taking three of four games at San Francisco following a 5-4, 13-inning victory Thursday. Thursday victory was the Braves' 10th win in their last 13 games. rookie Austin Riley went 3-for-6 on Thursday, hitting a two-run HR in the eighth to tie the game, before singling home the game-winning run in the 13th. He hitting .389 with a 1.254 OPS and became the ninth player in major-league history to hit five HRs in his first nine career games. The starting pitchers for Friday contest, the first of a three-game set, are Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 6.91 ERA) for Atlanta and Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.88 ERA) for St Louis. Foltynewicz was 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018, finishing eighth in the NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he pitched just two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. After posting a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, he made his season debut on April 27. He had allowed eight HRs over 21.1 innings in four starts in 2019, after surrendering a career-worst eight runs on seven hits (including three HRs) and three walks in 4.2 innings of a 14-3 loss to St Louis on May 14. He did show major improvement in his last outing, holding the Brewers to two runs on three hits with no walks and three strikeouts in six innings. However, the Braves lost, 3-2 (Atlanta is 0-5 in his 2019 starts). Mikolas opened May with only three runs allowed across 20 innings in three starts (1.35 ERA) but was hammered for seven runs on nine hits in just 1.1 innings of a 7-3 loss at Texas last Friday. Mikolas made the All-Star team while going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA a season ago, after not pitching in the majors since 2014. He hasn't had the same success this season but note that he has limited opponents to three ERs or less in SEVEN of his 10 starts this season. seven times in his first 10 starts. As noted above, Foltynewicz hs done little right, save his last outing, but it's hardly good news for Atlanta that he has historically had trouble against the Cardinals. He is 2-4 with a 9.33 ERA in six career starts vs the Cards. As for Mikolas, the "sample size" is small but he owns a 1.98 ERA in three career starts vs the Braves. Not sure "Folty" is back just yet and let's NOT forget that the Cards were 24-8 in all of Mikolas' starts in 2018, going plus-$1,418 vs the moneyline (4th-best among all starters). Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Phillies v. Brewers -125 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaker is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The 29-22 Milwaukee Brewers are trailing the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs (29-19) by 1 1/2 games. The Brewers open a three-game home series vs the visiting Phillies, who they took three of four against in Philadelphia last week. Milwaukee split a two-game home series with the Reds Tuesday and Thursday, while the Phillies split a four-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley, to open the week. Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 3.23 ERA) gets the ball tonight for Philly and Chase Anderson (2-0, 2.66 ERA) for the Brewers. Eickhoff produced three straight outstanding efforts from April 26 through May 8, allowing just one ER on eight hits (0.45 ERA), as the Phils won all three of those starts. However, he's followed that trio of outstanding starts with two disastrous ones. H'se allowed nine ERs on 12 hits over nine innings (that's 9.00 ERA) in back-to-back starts against Milwaukee and Colorado. Chase Anderson's first five appearances in 2019 came out of the bullpen. He then got starts on April 20 and 26, allowing just two ERs over 9.2 innings, as the Brewers won 5-0 and 10-2. He was then placed on the DL with a lacerated right middle finger but got a start last Saturday, allowing one run on two hits in four innings of a no-decision against the Braves (Brewers lost 4-3). Neither of these pitchers have had success against tonight's opponent, as Eickhoff is 1-3 with a 6.55 ERA against the Brewers and Anderson is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts (team is 1-4) against the Philles. However, I'll note that that recent series between the two teams (in Philly from May 13-16), after losing the first game, the Brewers took the last three, outscoring the Phils 22-6. Milwaukee is 17-9 at home this season (averaging 5,27 ERA), including going 12-6 in home night games vs righties, averaging 5.23 RPG. I'm backing the Brewers. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game 5 Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Bucks at 8:30 ET. Kawhi Leonard (31.8 PPG & 8.5 RPG) had carried Toronto's offense through the team's first two playoff series, as PF Pascal Siakam (20.8 & 7.3) and PG Kyle Lowry (12.4-5.0-7.1) were the only other Raptors averaging in double digits in the first two rounds. As for Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, he led Milwaukee to an 8-1 SU & ATS start to the postseason, averaging 27.4 points and 11.3 rebounds. However, I predicted this series was NOT just Kawhi vs Giannis. Antetokounmpo's supporting class had been strong. SF Khris Middleton (19.1-6.0-4.6) plus PGs Eric Bledsoe (16.0-3.3-4.3) and George Hill (12.1) looked "ready for primetime." What's more, combo guard Malcolm Brogdon (15.6-4.5-3.2 during the regular season), looked ready-to-go for this series, after scoring 10 points in 17 minutes in the clinching win over Boston, after missing the previous seven-plus weeks with a foot injury. More notably, Milwaukee's bench was averaging 37.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting, while Toronto's was averaging 21.6 points on 38.9 percent shooting. Milwaukee was "off' in Game 1 but outscored the Raptors 32-17 in the 4th quarter, ending the game on a 10-0 run to win AND cover, 108-100. In Game 2, it was all Milwaukee, as the Bucks won 125-103. The series shifted to Toronto for Game 3 and despite Giannis and Middleton combining for just 21 points (on 8 of 32 shooting), the Bucks had chances to win, before falling in OT. Leonard was the star (36 points) for Toronto and Siakam added 25 & 11. The Bucks then followed with their worst game of the series in Game 4. The team's 2-0 lead has evaporated, after Toronto's 120-102 victory on Tuesday. Leonard, who had topped 30 points in each of the first three games of the series, had just 19 in Game 4 while often appearing to be hindered by a left leg injury. PG Kyle Lowry scored 25 points plus three bench players excelled. SF Powell had 19, PF Ibaka had 17 & 13 (his best game of the series) and PG Van Vleet had 13. The series is now tied at two-all, with tonight's Game 5 looming large.I don'r remotely trust the Raptors on the road. Yes, they were 2-0 in Orlando but is that a big deal? In five road games since (against Philly and Milwaukee), Toronto is 1-4 SU and ATS, with those four losses coming by an average of 15.5 PPG. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 6-1 SU & ATS at home during the playoffs, upping the team's home record this season to 39-9 SU, while averaging a whopping 119.1 points. Milwaukee's bench will bounce back (don't expect Toronto's reserves to come anywhere close to performing like they did in Game 4) and expect Giannis to be brilliant. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -115 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. Chicago Cubs fell 5-4 to the Philadelphia Phillies in the opener of this four-game series on Monday but have answered that setback with back-to-back wins.Javier Baez followed up his game-winning hit in Tuesday's 3-2 victory with a solo HR in Wednesday's 8-4 win. Albert Almora Jr. hit a grand slam last night, improving to 7-for-15 during his four-game hitting streak for Chicago, which is averaging a NL-leading 5.38 runs per game. Philadelphia's Nos. 1-3 batters in the lineup went 8-for-14 with four runs scored on Wednesday but it was not nearly enough. Bryce Harper answered an 0-for-8 start to the series with three hits but the team's major free-agent signee is batting just .235 (it would be a career-low). Aaron Nola (4-0, 4.47 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies, opposed by the Cubs' Jon Lester (3-2, 2.09 ERA). Nola won his 2019 debut (despite FIVE walks) but then suffered through three straight no-decisions (Phils lost all three), allowing 19 hits and 15 ERs over 13.1 innings (10.13 ERA). However, he's posted a 2.30 ERA over his last five, with four one-run performances, reducing his season total by nearly 2 1/2 runs. He's yet to lose in 10 starts in 2019 but the Phillies are a modest 6-4 in those games. Along with his 4.77 ERA, Nola sports a poor 1.55 WHIP and .290 BAA. Lester endured his worst start of the season this past Saturday, allowing five runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings in a 5-2 loss at Washington. However, the 35-year-old vet had allowed just five ERs in his previous seven 2019 starts (1.16 ERA / Cubs went 7-1). The Cubs will take the field today with a 17-7 home mark at Wrigley. Chicago pitching has led the way at home, as the Cubs are allowing opponents just 2.96 RPG in their home park. Today, they send Lester to mound, knowing he's 8-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Phillies (teams are 9-1). Opposing him is an overrated Nola (see his 2019 stats above), who owns a 1-1 career mark and 5.12 ERA in three career starts vs the Cubs (team is 1-2). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Rockies v. Pirates -128 | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Getaway Day Romp is on the Pit Pirates at 12:35 ET. The Colorado Rockies opened their eight-game road trip 1-4 but this afternoon at PNC Park, have a chance to salvage a .500 road trip when they seek a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates. 22-25 Colorado received a huge boost from its Nos. 6-8 hitters in Wednesday's 9-3 victory as center fielder Ian Desmond, rookie second baseman Brendan Rodgers and catcher Tony Wolters were a combined 7-for-15 with four RBIs and four runs scored. As for 24-22 Pittsburgh, the Pirates have seemingly lost all momentum of a 7-4 road trip that preceded this series. Thursday's pitching matchup features Antonio Senzatela (3-3, 4.89 ERA) and Jordan Lyles (4-1, 1.97 ERA). Senzatela is coming off two solid starts, allowing two runs (one earned), five hits and four walks over five innings of a 2-1 loss at Philadelphia on May 18, after defeating San Diego 10-7 (three runs, seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings) on May 12. However, those outings have followed his worst outing of 2019, when he allowed seven ERs in just 4.2 innings of a 14-4 home loss to the Giants on May 7. This marks his first-ever starts vs the Pirates. Lyles was 13-16 with a 5.22 ERA in 105 games (37 starts) with Colorado from 2014-17 but the 28-year-old has been 're-born' with Pittsburgh in 2019. He's allowed just one run in each of his last three starts and struck out a career-high 12 over seven innings of a 5-3 victory at San Diego this past Friday. Lyles has 47 strikeouts against 32 hits and 16 walks, good for a 1.05 WHIP, over 45.2 innings this season, while relying more on his curveball. Senzatela is part of a rotation that boasts a National League-high 5.42 ERA and he's contributed to its woes, with a 1.45 WHIP and .277 batting average against. Meanwhile, along with the already mentioned excellent numbers this season from Lyles, I'll add that he's holding opponents to a .199 BAA and the Pirates have gone 7-1 in his eight starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$780, which is tops among all starters in 2019. No sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -140 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. Chicago's Javier Baez missed his second straight start because of a bruised right heel but his pinch-hit single down the right-field line gave the Cubs a 3-2 win over the Phillies last night. Chicago has alternated losses and wins over the last six games but the 28-18 Cubs still maintain a two-game lead in the NL Central over the Milwaukee Brewers. You may just have heard that the Phiilies made a HUGE investment prior to the start of the 2019 season in Bryce Harper but after he went 0-for-4 on Tuesday, he's hitting .224 on the season, which is the lowest mark of his career. That said, the 28-20 Phillies lead the NL East by 2 1/2 games over the Braves. It's a 'battle' of lefties and Coles tonight, as Cole Irvin (2-0, 2.77 ERA) squares off against Cole Hamels (4-0 3.13 ERA). Irvin followed his impressive major-league debut with his second win in as many starts, permitting four runs (three earned) on five hits in six innings of a 5-4 victory over Colorado. The 25-year-old pitched seven strong innings at KC in his ML debut on May 12, allowing just one run in a 6-1 victory. The 35-year-old Hamels is showing no signs of slowing down. He has spent the past four-plus seasons with the Cubs and Texas Rangers, after going 114-90 with a 3.30 ERA for the Phiilies (he was the MVP of the 2008 World Series). Hamels napped a string of four straight no-decisions on Friday, after allowing two runs in five innings of a 14-6 victory at Washington. Hamels takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in FOUR of his last five starst and the Cubs have gone 7-2 in his 2019 starts. The Cubs are 16-7 at home this season, holding opponents to a mere 2.91 RPG at Wrigley. The Phillies are just 4-10 since 2018 on the road vs left-handers at night, averaging just 2.5 RPG. Hamels has to like those numbers. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Red Sox -150 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My 7* Late-Breaker is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:07 ET. Boston rolled to a 12-2 win Monday at Toronto, improving to 14-5, while the Blue Jays fell to 5-14 over their previous 19 games. However, what a difference a day can make. Toronto exacted a bit of revenge with a 10-3 drubbing of the Red Sox on Tuesday. The teams meet again tonight, in the third contest of a four-game set. The Blue Jays have won three of five overall but they're just 6-14 in their last 20 and haven't won two in a row since sweeping a three-game home series against the Oakland A's from April 26-28. Porcello (3-4, 4.80 ERA) will be on the mound for Boston and Aaron Sanchez (3-4, 3.88 ERA) gets the ball fro Toronto. Porcello won the Cy Young award in 2016, going 22-4. However, he fell to 11-17 the following year, before bouncing back to go 17-11 last season. He opened the current season 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA in his first three starts but was 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings (Red Sox had won all five!), prior to hies most recent start. Porcello saw a stellar effort turn into a loss against last Friday, when he served up a two-run HR in the eighth inning (Boston would lose, 3-1). to end his five-start unbeaten streak. However, let's NOT ignore that since he was battered for 19 runs in losing his first three starts of the year, he has shaved more than SIX runs off his ERA while permitting three runs or less in FIVE of his six starts. Sanchez memorably went 15-2 (3.00 ERA) back in 2016 but he was limited to just 28 starts in 2017 and 2018, going 5-9 with a 4.72 ERA. He has been bothered by blisters throughout his career and the issue resurfaced in his last outing, when he settled for a no-decision after giving up two runs and three hits in three-plus innings at the Chicago White Sox (Jays won, 10-2). However, he had lost each of his previous three starts, posting a 6.35 ERA. Note that Toronto's 10-run, 11-hit effort last night came against a lefty starter but that in home games this season vs righties, the Jays are 5-10, averaging just 3.22 RPG. As noted above, Porcello is in excellent form his last six outings plus Sanchez is winless in his last six starts vs Boston since the start of 2017 (Jays have lost FIVE of the six). Throw in the fact that the Jays haven't won back-to-back games in nearly a month and the play is on Porcello and the Red Sox. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers +102 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 102 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Mil Brewers at 1:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers took on playoff hopefuls Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta on a 10-game road trip and finished 5-5. The Brewers returned to Miller Park to kick off a five-game homestand on Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds came into last night's game 21-26 but had "righted the ship" following starts of 1-8 and 5-12 by going 16-14 over their previous 30 games.The Brewers entered Tuesday's contest 18-6 at home gut lost 3-0, snapping a six-game winning streak at Miller Park. The Reds may still be in last place in the NL Central (at 22-26) but they own the lowest ERA in the NL at 3.34 and the team's seventh shutout of the season is the most of any team. Pitching will take "center stage" in tonight's concluding contest of this two-game set. Luis Castillo (5-1, 1.90 ERA) will take the mound for Cincinnati and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Zach Davies (5-0, 1.54 ERA). Castillo allowed two runs, two hits and one walk with six strikeouts across 5.1 innings of a 4-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs last Thursday. He's now allowed two or fewer runs in NINE of his 10 starts of 2019 and has allowed only 34 hits over 61.2 innings this season. He has 76 strikeouts in those 61.2 innings, posting an 0.96 WHIP and holding opponents to a .163 BAA. along with Castillo's only loss this season was a 1-0 decision to Milwaukee back on April 3, when he allowed one run, one hit and four walks while striking out nine in seven innings. He's 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers (team is 3-2). Davies had shoulder and back issues in 2018's injury-plagued season, limiting him to just 13 starts (2-7, 4.77 ERA / team was 5-8). Davies allowed three runs (one earned), four hits and one walk while striking out five over six innings of an 11-3 victory at Philadelphia this past Thursday. He hasn't allowed more than two ERs in ANY of his nine outings this season. He owns the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind Hyun-Jin Ryu of the LA Dodgers (1.52) but is a modest 3-3 (3.32 ERA) in 11 career starts (team is 6-5) vs the Reds. Neither pitcher has shown any weakness in 2019 but I'll note that Davies will take an 0.76 ERA in four home starts into this game. He'll face a Cincy team that owns MLB's lowest team BA (.217) and has averaged only 3.32 RPG in 25 away games in 2019. The Brewers were shut out last night but they are 16-9 at home, averaging 5.04 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres continue their three-game game series Tuesday night, as both are battling for position in the NL West. The 24-24 Padres snapped a three-game losing streak and pulled within a game of second-place of the 25-23 Diamondbacks with Monday’s 2-1 victory. Rookie Chris Paddack gave San Diego six strong innings, Franmil Reyes hit his 15th HR and Kirby Yates recorded his 18th save In 18 opportunities!). Arizona has now lost three in a row and has scored just a total of three runs with eight hits in its last two games. The middle of the Diamondbacks’ order - Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta, Christian Walker and Blake Swihart – finished a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts in Monday’s loss. Taking the mound for Arizona tonight will be Zack Greinke (6-1, 2.78 ERA), who will be opposed by Matt Strahm (1-3, 3.07 ERA). Greinke left last Wednesday’s start against Pittsburgh early after experiencing abdominal tightness but after throwing a successful bullpen session over the weekend, he's back on the mound tonight. That's GREAT news for the D'backs, as he is 6-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts (team is 7-2), posting a 59-6 KW ratio over 61 innings. Strahm is a lefty who took the loss last Wednesday against the Dodgers, after allowing two runs on seven hits in five innings. The Padres are 4-4 in his eight starts in 2019 but note that Strahm owns a 4.24 ERA in three home starts compared to a 2.33 mark in five outings away from Petco Park. Strahm was used mostly in relief during his previous three MLB seasons (just eight starts in 86 appearances) but he's a full-time starter in 2019. Is he really a match for five-time All Star (and former Cy Young winner) Greinke? As already noted, Greinke owns a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts plus owns a stellar 13-2 record and 2.30 ERA in 24 career starts vs San Diego (team are 18-6), including a 2-0 mark in two outings this season. Want more? Greinke will face a SD team which is just 4-11 in home night games against righties, averaging only 3.03 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Sharks +150 v. Blues | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Week is on the SJ Sharks at 8:08 ET. The St Louis Blues have outscored the Sharks 7-1 since the controversial hand-pass goal that ended Game 3 and put them in a 1-2 'hole' in their series with the San Jose Sharks. However, the back-to-back wins mean the Blues are now in a position to "punch their ticket" to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1970 with one more victory. Turnarounds are nothing new for the Blues this season, as they owned the NHL's worst record back on Jan 2! As for the San Jose Sharks, they aren't just facing elimination heading back to St. Louis for Game 6 of their Western Conference final, they are also facing questions about the availability of some key cogs in their lineup. San Jose captain Joe Pavelski (upper body), two-time Norris Trophy recipient Erik Karlsson (undisclosed) and Tomas Hertl (upper body) missed significant time in Sunday's 5-0 setback to St Louis while Joonas Donskoi (upper body) returned after being injured earlier in the contest. San Jose head coach Peter DeBoer has shed little light on that topic ahead of the Sharks' potential elimination game Tuesday at Enterprise Center. "We're still alive," Sharks forward Logan Couture told reporters. "We've been in this spot before, going to Vegas down 3-2 in a very difficult building. St Louis is similar, it's a tough building against a good team. A structured team." St Louis comes into this contest off its most dominating performance of the playoffs. Jaden Schwartz recorded a hat trick and goalie Jordan Binnington made 21 saves for his first career playoff shutout."If you saw the game, you saw how good everyone on the team played," Binnington told Sportsnet after the game. "Everyone was outstanding, making the right decisions, playing hard and playing disciplined. That's a good team win." The rookie goaltender has turned aside 50 of 51 shots in his last two contests. This scenario seems too good to be true. St Louis made the Cup final in each of its first three seasons but hasn't returned since. Awaiting the Blues if they win tonight are the Boston Bruins. The last time the Blues reached the championship round, they lost to the Bruins, a result forever framed by the famous image of Bobby Orr flying through the air after scoring the Cup-winning goal. Again, you can't make this stuff up. However, I will note that while the Blues are 7-2 on the road this postseason, they are a modest 4-5 at home! As for the Sharks, they overcame a 3-1 deficit in the first round against Vegas by winning Games 5, 6 and 7. San Jose then won a Game 7 vs Colorado, which makes them a PERFECT 4-0 in elimination games this postseason. Make that 5-0, as this series is headed for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -139 | 3-0 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My MLB 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers took on playoff hopefuls Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta on a 10-game road trip and finished 5-5, Ben Gamel led off the 10th with a home run against the Braves on Sunday. "To finish off a long, tough road trip with a win and kind of hold serve on the road, so to speak - 5-5 against three teams above .500 and a couple teams that are leading their division - that's a good place to be," Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters. The 28-21 Brewers will now kick off a five-game homestand when they host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a two-game set on Tuesday. The Reds dropped two of three at home to the LA Dodgers over the weekend and sit in last place in the NL Central at 21-26. However, the Reds have "righted the ship" following starts of 1-8 and 5-12,having gone 16-14 over their last 30 games. They will now play their next nine against NL Central opponents, beginning with this two-game series against the Brewers. Tuesday's pitching matchup features Sonny Gray (0-4, 4.30 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (2-0, 1.69 ERA). Gray began his career with Oakland but pitched for the Yankees for part of the 2017 season and all of 2018. He was traded to Cincinnati on Jan 21 and is still looking for his first win of 2019. He's made nine starts (team is 3-6) and has failed to complete six innings in any of his last five. He was reached for three runs on five hits (including two HRs) in five innings without factoring in the decision against the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday (Reds won 6-5, after losing his three previous starts). Gray spent the first six seasons of his career in the American League and is making his first career start at Milwaukee. Gonzalez is having similar problems to Gray in going deep into games but has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts since signing with the team in April. He has yet to complete six innings but after Milwaukee lost his team debut on April 28, he's 2-0 (team is 3-0), while posting a 1.10 ERA (two ERs allowed over 16.1 innings). Gonzalez went 2-1 in three starts against Cincinnati last season, including six scoreless innings on Sep 19 after he was traded from Washington to Milwaukee. He's got a 2.75 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Reds. The Brewers are 16-8 at home this season, where they average 5.25 RPG. The Reds opened 0-7 on the road and while they are 9-8 since that start to check in at 9-15 away from home on the year, they are averaging only 3.33 RPG in road contests. A closer look reveals that they are 2-5 vs lefties on the road in 2019 (averaging 3.6 RPG), after going 3-10 vs left-handers on the road in night games in 2018, averaging just 2.9 RPG. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Brewers are 11-5 vs righties at Miller Park, including 7-3 in night games, averaging 5.3 RPG. That's no surprise, as the Brewers were 27-8 at home last year vs righties in night games. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -106 | 5-4 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Miami Marlins own the worst record in MLB (13-31) but enter a three-game interleague series at the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday with some momentum. The Marlins are coming off their first series sweep of the year, taking three straight from the New York Mets over the weekend, including the last two in shutout fashion. Meanwhile, the Tigers will welcome the Marlins to Detroit having been outscored 52-12 during a six-game losing streak. Detroit was on its way to a seven-game losing streak but trailing 5-3 in the seventh inning Sunday against Oakland, the game was suspended because of rain. All six losses have taken place at home and the Tigers have now dropped EIGHT of their last nine at Comerica Park, giving them a 9-14 home record.. Tuesday's pitching matchup features two promising young starters, Caleb Smith (3-1, 2.25 ERA) of Miami and Spencer Turnbull (2-3, 2.40 ERA) of Detroit. Smith suffered just his first loss of the year last Tuesday against Tampa Bay, after allowing a modest two runs in 5.1 innings. It ended a string of six straight starts in which he had completed at least six innings. Smith owns a n 0.92 WHIP and opponents are batting just .180 against him, yet he Marlins are just 4-4 in his eight starts. He has one inning of relief in his career against the Tigers. Turnbull gave up six runs in four innings in a loss to Oakland his last time out but just ONE of the runs was earned. He owns a 1.34 ERA over his last six starts, including two outings against National League teams in which he gave up one run and five hits in a combined 12 innings (0.75 ERA). Turnbull's numbers are not quite as good as Smith's but the Tigers are 5-4 in his starts. He has never faced the Marlins. Yes, the Tigers are in a woeful slump but the Marlins could be "just what the doctor ordered." Sure, Miami comes in off a three-game sweep of the Mets (NOT a big deal, these days) but the Marlins rank 30th in scoring (2.68 RPG), OPS (.592) and HRs (27) plus 28th in team BA (.219). The Marlins are 4-14 on the road, averaging a puny 2.22 RPG, while allowing 5.11. THIS is a team that allows a club like Detroit to snap a losing streak. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Rockies v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Pirates split the first eight games of their 11-game road trip but then swept the final three in San Diego. The Pirates are happy to have finished the trek 7-4 and now return to Pittsburgh to open a six-game homestand with three against the slumping Colorado Rockies. I’m proud of the effort,'' Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told reporters. "I’m proud of the energy, and the offense is starting to do some things that are significant, as well. It was a fun trip for us. It was a good baseball trip.” Colorado is wrapping up an eight-game road trip here in Pittsburgh. The Rockies won the opener of their trip but have since lost the next four, including a three-game sweep at Philadelphia over the weekend. German Marquez (4-2, 3.80 ERA) will get the nod on Tuesday for Colorado, while Pittsburgh counters with Chris Archer (1-3, 5.58 ERA). Marquez had allowed just five runs in 29 innings over four road starts before giving up five runs on 10 hits across 6.1 innings in Colorado's 6-5 loss to Boston on Wednesday (he received a no-decision). That outing is part of a recent disturbing trend that has seen Marquez post a 5.76 ERA in his last four starts, after posting a 2.54 ERA through his first six starts of 2019. Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates. Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's pitchers and Archer permitted seven runs (six earned) on four hits and four walks over 3.2 innings of an 11-1 loss at Arizona on Wednesday, his first start since April 26 (he had missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation). Last Wednesday's outing was the SECOND straight in which he had allowed six ERs. His 4.7 walks per nine innings would be the worst rate of his career. Yes, Archer is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Colorado (14 strikeouts in 11 innings) but who can remember that pitcher? Really, Archer has just become a career underachiever. He struggled in three starts before the injury, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA (Pittsburgh lost all three games), then was awful again last Wednesday (see above for a reminder). The Rockies are getting a bit of a break with the Pirates' pitching challenges. Strong opposing pitching has been a theme on the trip. In 48 innings, the Rockies have struck out 66 times against the likes of Boston's Chris Sale and the Phillies' Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff. Expect Colorado to reach Archer (everyone else has) but also note Marquez's 5.76 ERA in his last four starts. It's Gioin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-19 | Braves -130 v. Giants | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaking Play is on the Atl Braves at 9:45 ET. The Atlanta Braves fell Sunday at home to Milwaukee 3-2 in 10 innings to end a four-game winning streak but have won four of their last five series and seven of their last nine games overall. The 25-22 Braves open a seven-game road trip Monday at San Francisco and hope to continue their strong play of late. The 20-25 Giants have also played better of late, winning four of their last six, after winning two of three in Arizona over the weekend, getting a pinch-hit HR from Pablo Sandoval for the game winner in Sunday 3-2 win (also in 10 innings).. The pitching matchup for the opener of this four-game set features Atlanta rookie Mike Soroka (4-1, 0.98 ERA), going against San Francisco left-hander Andrew Suarez, who is making his first appearance for the Giants this season. Soroka takes the mound in the opener after allowing one earned run or less in all SIX starts this season and doing so NINE times in his 11 career starts. He has given up just four ERs over 36.2 innings this season (six starts) and in his 11 career starts (Braves are 8-3), is 6-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Can we agree, he's NOT a fluke? Wait, how about this? He has not surrendered a HR in 57 innings, the longest current streak in the majors that dates back to his big-league debut last May. As for Suarez, he failed to make the Giants roster out of spring training, one season after starting 29 games in the majors (7-13, 4.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP / team was 12-17). He's missed time at Triple-A Sacramento with a hamstring injury and in six starts, is 2-3 with a 6.33 ERA. He heads into this game having allowed seven ERs on 14 hits over just 8.2 innings in two starts since returning from the injured list (7.27 ERA). Suarez's numbers are hardly a ringing endorsement and give little reason to expect he can hold down an Atlanta lineup led by 1st baseman Freddie Freeman . Freeman is batting .425 with a 1.302 OPS over the last 10 games and has homered in a career-best four straight games. Freeman has 11 HRs, eight coming over his last 83 at-bats. What's more, not only his Suarez matched up against the red-hot Soroka but the Gianst haven't hit right-handers well, especially in home night games. The Giants are averaging just 2.4 RPG in seven home night games vs righties in 2019. A small sample size, you say? Fair enough but in 30 home night games against righties in 2018, the Giants averaged just 3.6 RPG. Take the Braves and Soroka. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET. The Warriors coasted to a 116-94 win in Game 1 but had to overcome a 17-point deficit in Game 2, before escaping with a 114-111 victory. "We stole that game," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. Golden St was down 15 at the half in Game 2 but a 39-24 third quarter put them back in position to win it in the 4th. Fast-forward to Game 3 in Portland. The Blazers opened a 66-53 halftime lead but once again, the Warriors dominated in the third quarter, outscoring the Blazers 29-13, before pulling away in fourth en route to a 110-99 triumph.The Blazers WILL NOT come back and win four in a row but the question here is, can they win this Game 4? Draymond Green scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday (his third triple-double of the playoffs), setting the tone for a Warriors team that fell into an 18-point hole in the first half and was down 14 with 8:08 left in the third quarter. His ability to push the tempo and get the rest of his teammates to feed off his energy propelled the Warriors to a victory. That said, let's NOT forget Curry, who scored a team high 36 points, his fourth straight 30-plus effort since K.D. was lost to a calf injury. Portland didn't just fold in the third quarter, as they totaled just 33 points in the entire second half, after putting up 63 points in the first half. "Our offense fell apart," Portland coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "We missed some shots. Took some tough shots. Didn't move the ball as well. They were scoring, so we were taking it out of the net. Didn't get any transition. So, I said at the beginning of the series, to beat Golden State, you've got to be able to score. Scoring 33 in the second half is not going to do it." Damian Lillard has yet to get rolling offensively in the series (he's shooting 32.6 percent from the floor and has committed 14 turnovers in the first three games, plus he and McCollum have been totally outplayed by Curry and Thompson. in the series. Is this "All she wrote?" The Warriors are just one win shy of earning their FIFTH straight NBA Finals appearance, something that hasn't been done since the 1960s Boston Celtics. As to the team's back-to-back wins in Games 2 and 3, the Warriors have become the first team in NBA history to rally from at least a 13-point deficit in consecutive playoff wins. However, SF Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday's game and is the Warriors don't expect him to play here. As for K.D, word is he only plays if the Warriors are forced to a Game 7 (fat chance that happens). That said, I am not tasked to "look ahead," just focus on the here and now. Portland has shown it can play with Golden State in Games 2 and 3 but the team has NOT been able to "close he show." I've had the Blazers in Games 2 and 3 and will "go to the well" with them again, here. Portland lost its first home game after the calendar turned to 2019 (Jan 4 to OKC) but then ended the regular season on an 18-2 SU run at home. The Blazers are 5-2 at home in the postseason, so that means they are on a 23-4 SU run on their home floor. Portland closed a three-point favorite in Game 3 but there has been a line 'swing' of right about a 'TD!". I'm 'barking' with the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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