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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-18 | Bucks -5 v. Hornets | 107-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Bucks (7:05 EST). Milwaukee comes in off a 135-129 home win over the Spurs on Saturday, while the Hornets enter off a loss in Atlanta just last night. Charlotte’s late rally fell short last night and I think the Hornets are going to come in predictably “gassed” here after that losing effort. Milwaukee took the first game between the clubs this year 113-112 on October 17th, but I’m expecting a much wider margin of victory here this time around. The Bucks are the No. 1 offense in the league, averaging 121.7 PPG and they’ve been decent defensively, conceding 109.0. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the nightly charge with an average of 27.2 points to go with 13 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. Charlotte is averaging 115.1 PPG and it’s conceding 110.2. Kemba Walkers leads the team with 28.6 points and 6.4 assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Hornets are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with a winning road record, while the Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on one days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Miami-FL v. Seton Hall +6 | 81-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on Seton Hall (10:30 EST). Miami is 5-0 to open the year, while Seton Hall is 3-2. Both teams have won two games in the Wooden Legacy tournament to advance to the championship match-up tonight and I’m expecting an all out war until the final buzzer from these two hungry sides. Miami held on for a tight 78-76 win over Fresno State to advance, while Seton Hall got the better of Hawaii 64-54. The Hurricanes come into this one averaging 84 PPG and conceding 63. Chris Lykes leads the nightly charge with 19.6 points and 3.6 assists per game. The Pirates average 71.2 PPG and they allowing 64.8. Myles Powell less the way with 25.8 PPG and I think he’ll prove a tough matchup for Miami. Miami has a great and experienced starting five, but the Hurricanes are very thin after that. The team has been playing at such a high level for a long time now and it comes in off a last second victory. In my opinion, there’s no question this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for these tired Hurricanes. Seton Hall has more depth and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | 17-24 | Loss | -119 | 133 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST). Minnesota enters off a devastating divisional loss to Chicago. The Vikes have now lost two of their last three. Green Bay fans can empathize, as their team sits at 4-5, having now lost three of its last four. It’s do or die for the Packers this weekend, as another loss will officially knock the team out of playoff contention. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the ions. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has a sharp 19/1 TD/INT on the year and he had 332 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s 27-24 loss at Seattle. Davante Adams was another standout with 166 receiving yards on ten catches. The Vikes’ offense has been a disaster with QB Kirk Cousins, who has a weak 5/4 TD/INT over his last three games. Two of those INTs were returned for TDs as well. Stefon Diggs was a bright spot in the setback last week with 125 yards and a TD. I’ll point out that Green Bay is still 9-5 ATS in its last 14 vs. clubs with winning records, while Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Knicks +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Knicks (6:05 EST). Even with Kristaps Porzingis in the line-up for the Knicks (he’s not, he’s still injured!), Memphis is still a much better team than New York across the board. I won’t try to convince you otherwise either, I simply feel that the Grizzlies are going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Besides, the Knicks come in off a confidence building 114-109 home win over the Pelicans, while the Grizzlies enter off an exhausting 112-107 OT loss on the road to the Clippers on Friday. New York has in fact won two straight. Overall the Knicks are averaging 108.9 PPG and conceding 114.3. Memphis is averaging only 103.3 PPG, making up for it on the other end with the No. 1 defense, conceding only 100.8 points. I’ll point out thought that New York is 8-2 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games in which it comes in on a two games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games following an OT loss in which failed to score 110 or more points in. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab all those points! Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Steelers -3 v. Broncos | 17-24 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:25 EST). The Broncos ended the Chargers' six-game winning streak with a 23-22 win last Sunday in LA , as a TD underdog. However, at 4-6, Denver has more than a little work to do to avoid consecutive losing season for the first time in 46 years! This game marks Denver's lone home contest in a four-week span (in LA against the Chargers last week, with trips to Cincy and San Fran following the Steelers coming to town on Sunday). As for those Steelers, they visit “Mile High” having won six straight contests (who needs Bell?), following a comeback win against the free-falling Jaguars last Sunday. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 SU on the road this season, after going 7-1 last year (that's an 11-1-1 SU run away from home!). Can't let the small impost stand in the way of taking "Big Ben" over Case Keenum! Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Oklahoma State v. LSU -4 | Top | 90-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on LSU (4:00 EST). These teams are playing for third place in the AdvoCare Invitationals. Oklahoma State enters off a humbling 77-58 loss to Villanova and I believe the Cowboys will stumble again here as well. LSU enters off a tight 79-76 loss in OT to No. 14 Florida State on Friday and I believe the Tigers come in hungry and focused off that near epic upset. The Cowboys enter averaging 71.4 points and conceding 65. Cameron McGriff leads the nightly charge with 15 points and eight boards per game. LSU is averaging 82.2 PPG and it’s allowing 71.8. Naz Reid is averaging 13.2 points and 4.2 boars per game. I’ll point out though that LSU is 5-1 ATSin its last six following a SU loss, while Oklahoma State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after failing to score 60 points in its previous outing. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals UNDER 47.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Browns/Bengals (1:00 EST). The 3-6-1 Cleveland Browns would love nothing more than to punch another one into the win column and to put a nail in the coffin for the Bengals season at the same time. Cincinnati is 5-5. The Browns remain competitive each week, thanks mostly to an above average defensive unit. Last week QB Baker Mayfield had 216 yards and three TDs, but the big star was RB Nick Chubb, who has 176 rushing yards and a TD. After starting off 4-1, it’s do or die for the .500 Bengals. Cincinnati catches a break though facing the Browns offense which is averaging only 21 PPG. Last week QB Andy Dalton had 211 yards and two TDs in the loss to the Ravens. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a “chess match” than a wide open “shoot out.” The Bengals will look to control this one while on offense to keep Mayfield off. The Browns will once again be relying on their defense to pull this one out for them. Additionally note that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 21 of its last 36 as an underdog, while the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last 11 following two or more losses. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -125 | 126 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). Both teams need wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 2,192 passing yards with 23 TDs and five INTs. Wilson has been very sharp of late, with three TD passes in four of his last six games. The ground game has been strong as well in averaging 154.3 YPG, led by Chris Carson with 580 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the defense has been pretty good as well by allowing 21.6 PPG. Carolina has won all five of its home games this year. The Panthers’ Cam Newton has 2,443 yards, two TDs and six INTs. Newton has two or more TD passes in each of his last nine games. The ground game has also been strong by averaging 130.2 YPG. On the year the Panthers are allowing 25.2 PPG. These teams are evenly matched on paper and each is desperate for wins. Note though that Seattle is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 on the road and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a road dog of three points or less, while Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last ten at home and note that the home team is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series as well. Carolina has been a “different” team at home all year. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-18 | Giants +7 v. Eagles | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Showdown is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). I think the defending champs have now thrown in the towel on their season and I look for the surging Giants to take advantage. New York’s offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into this one off a 38-35 win over Tampa last week. The Eagles on the other hand come in off an embarrassing 48-7 loss to the Saints. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” as well for New York, as Philly posted the 34-13 road win last month. New York’s offense has been great of late, but the weakness has been on the defensive side of the ball. But the Giants’ defense catches a break here facing an Eagles unit which is struggling with consistency. While New York has now won two straight, the Eagles enter having lost two straight (and three of their last four.) Philly is just 2-3 at home and it’s averaging only 20.5 PPG, while conceding 23.1. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while New York is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Utah State +3 v. Boise State | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -114 | 112 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Utah State (10:15 EST). To be the best, you have to beat the best. The 10-1 Utah State Aggies will look to dethrone the 9-2 Boise State Broncos. The Aggies come in having won ten straight after a 29-24 win over Colorado State last weekend. QB Jordan Love has been exceptional so far this season with 25 TDs and four INTs. But Utah State also has a pair of elite RBs in Gerold Bright and Darwin Thompson, who have combined for 1,670 yards rushing and 22 TDs. The Aggies have been unstoppable offensively this year, averaging 500.1 yards of total offense, while posting 49.3 PPG (ranked No. 2 in the country!) Boise State has won six straight, most recently a 45-14 victory over lowly New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien has been a standout with 3,270 yards, 28 TDs and seven INTs. On the season the Broncos are averaging 465 yards and 37.4 points per game. I’ll point out though that Utah State is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. the conference, while Boise State is only 6-15 ATS in its last 21 home games. Finally note that the road team is in fact 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 in this series as well. I like the Aggies’ amazing offense to be just too much for the Broncos to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The Celtics come in off a win and cover in Atlanta last night and I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back against their lowly non-conference opponent. Previous to last night’s win Boston had lost three straight and five of seven. Dallas on the other hand enters off a win as well, most recently outlasting Brooklyn 119-113. Harrison Barnes led the way in that one with 28 points. Overall though rookie Luka Doncic leads the Mavs with an average of 19.3 PPG. Note as well that Boston is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing the second game of a back to back against a non-conference opponent in which it scored over 105 points in the first game and emerged victorious as well, while Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall. The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Dallas is playing right now. The Mavericks benefit in facing the C’s on the second game of a back to back and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +11 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on USC (8:00 EST). No. 3 Notre Dame and USC collide at the LA Memorial Coliseum on Saturday night and while I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do expect a more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Note that this is a revenge game after Notre Dame crushed USC 49-14 last year. Also note the Trojans are playing for their coaches job, as Clay Helton will be fired if he loses this one. The Irish have their eyes on the prize and they come in averaging 454.9 YPG. On the defensive side they’re conceding just 321.4 YPG. USC is 5-6 and will need to pull off an upset to become bowl eligible. The Trojans have nothing to lose and they’ll be especially motivated after falling to UCLA last weekend. Offensively USC is averaging just 138.1 YPG. Defensively the Trojans have been decent overall, allowing 211.5 YPG through the air and 168.8 YPG on the ground. I’ll point out as well that Notre Dame is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records, while USC is still 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on USC. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 37 | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Rutgers/MSU (4:00 EST). There’s absolutely nothing on the line here for either team. Rutger is 1-10 and it has nothing to lose, as it’ll be opening up the playbook to try and score an improbable outright upset. The Scarlet Knights have lost seven straight on the road. QB Artur Sitkowski has 1,158 passing yards, four TDs and 18 INTs. The ground game has been decent by averaging 136.4 PPG. While the offense has been poor, the defense has been downright terrible, allowing 33 PPG. Michigan State is already bowl eligible, but it’ll be looking to end its season strong for its seniors after splitting its last four games. QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi have combined for ten TDs and 11 INTs. The ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG and the defense is conceding 18.7 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Rutgers has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while MSU has seen the total go over in three of its last four vs. teams with losing records and in four of six as a favorite this season. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to soar over sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Arizona State v. Arizona +2 | 41-40 | Win | 100 | 103 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on Arizona (3:30 EST). Arizona State looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its three-game win streak was snapped at Oregon last weekend. Arizona has nothing to lose here and it’ll be eager to get back on track on seniors night after a blowout loss to high-flying Washington State. After last week’s 31-29 loss at Oregon last Saturday, the Wildcats have now officially been eliminated from Pac 12 Championship Game contention. And with that sad fact weighing heavily, I do indeed expect a predictable letdown here from the visitors in this difficult road venue. Besides, there’s no question that this one “means more” to Arizona, which still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. The home side will be risking life and limb today to try and secure a victory and I believe this will in fact be the difference maker in the end. Additionally note that ASU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite, while Arizona is 4-2 ATS at home and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season off a loss vs. a conference rival. For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Michigan -3.5 v. Ohio State | 39-62 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan 8* (12:00 EST). The winner of this contest will compete in the Big 10 Title Game. Michigan enters off a 31-20 home win over Indiana, while Ohio State enters off an exhausting and improbable 52-51 OT road win over Maryland. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for Michigan after Ohio State won this game 31-20 on the road last season. In fact, Ohio State has won six in a row in this series. Overall the Wolverines are averaging only 26.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 13.5. With a chance to avenge last year’s loss and to de-rail Ohio State’s National Title hopes, I think Michigan finally gets over the hump here. Overall the Buckeyes are averaging 41.6 PPG and conceding 24.6. I’ll point out that the Buckeyes though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after scoring 40 points or more in their previous game, while Michigan is a solid 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS loss. Defense wins the day. Play on Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Florida -5 v. Florida State | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Florida 8* (12:00 EST). Florida comes in off a 63-10 home win over Idaho and I look for the Gators to lay the hammer down on both ends of the field this afternoon as well. FSU comes in off a much tighter than expected 21-20 home win over BC and I think it’ll predictably stumble here in the “step up” in competition. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the Gators after the Seminoles took this matchup 38-22 last season. Florida is averaging 33.9 PPG and it’s conceding just 21. QB Feleipe Franks had 274 yards passing and three TDs last week. FSU is averaging only 22.6 PPG and it’s conceding 30.6. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Deondre Francois has a poor 14/10 TD/INT. Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9-2 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records, while Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Gators. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-18 | Purdue -4 v. Indiana | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Purdue 9* (12:00 EST). Purdue enters off a 47-44 triple OT loss to Wisconsin, while Indiana fell 31-20 at Michigan. If recent history is any precedence, though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances for a bounce back here as last year they’d take this game 31-24. Purdue is averaging 32.3 PPG and it’s conceding 27.8. QB David Blough has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT. The Boilermakers still need one more victory to become eligible. Indiana is averaging 26.9 PPG and it’s conceding 30.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. QB Peyton Ramsey has a weak 18/12 TD/INT. Note as well that Indiana is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS win, while the Boilermakers are interestingly 21-6 ATS in their last 27 after posing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Look for the desperate/hungry team to pull away down the stretch. Play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-18 | Blazers v. Warriors -1.5 | Top | 97-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The Warriors are facing their most difficult stretch in a long time. Golden State comes in having lost four in a row and captain Stephen Curry remains sidelined with injury. A date against the Blazers, who have struggled away from friendly confines, is just what the doctor ordered for Kevin Durant and the two-time defending champs to get back on track with a big win. Portland comes in off a 143-100 loss at Milwaukee, while Golden State fell 123-95 to OKC in its latest action. The Blazers are averaging 114.2 PPG and they’re conceding 110.2. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 26.4 PPG. Golden State is averaging 115.4 PPG and it’s conceding 111.1. Durant is averaging 27.2 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Blazers are a money-burning 4-5 ATS on the road this year, while Golden State is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home. I think Durant and Klay Thompson come to play tonight and the supporting cast finally shows up as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-18 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 81-87 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on Tennessee (9:30 EST). No. 5 Tennessee is led by Grant Williams, who is averaging 22.5 PPG. He most recently had 24 points against Louisville in Wednesday’s semi final victory of the NIT Season Tip-Off. Five players went on to score double figures for the Vols in the 92-81 win. Overall Tennessee is averaging 82.8 PPG and conceding just 60. Kansas is allowing teams to hit 40.5 percent from behind the arc. The Jayhawks are terrible at defending the three-ball, but they make up for it on the offensive end by hitting 47.2 percent from range. The Jayhawks most recently rallied for a bit win over Marquette, getting 26 points from Dedric Lawson in the eventual 77-68 victory. I’ll point out though that Kansas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU win, while Tennessee is a strong 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or more in its previous contest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I’ll recommend to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-18 | Washington v. Washington State -3 | Top | 28-15 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Washington State (8:30 EST). The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship game next weekend and in my opinion. home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. WSU comes in with a ton of momentum with seven straight victories. The Huskies have been playing well as well, with back-to-back wins over Stanford and Oregon State. Jake Browning and the Huskies have three losses this year, so they won’t be going to the Football Championship. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl if they can win out, but I think they’ll fall flat against a surging WSU team which plays with triple revenge, having fallen to Browning three times already. The Cougars now have the best offense in the Pac 12, averaging 40.5 PPG. No other team in the conference is putting up more than 35.5. WSU most recently obliterated Arizona 69-28, with QB Gardner Minshew throwing for seven TD passes. So far Minshew has 36 TDs and just seven INTs. Note as well that Washington State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records, while Washington is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on WSU. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-18 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +1.5 | 59-56 | Loss | -109 | 86 h 58 m | Show | |
My 9* Big 12 DECIDER is on West Virginia (8:00 EST). Oklahoma comes in having won five in a row. The Sooners have already punched their ticket to the Big 12 Championship game, so a win or loss today means nothing in that regard. The Mountaineers though need to win this game, plus have Texas lose this weekend, and if that happens, then WVU will be playing Oklahoma next week as well. Oklahoma won last week, but it wasn’t pretty in the 55-40 victory over lowly Kansas. In fact note that the Sooners have dropped to seventh in scoring in the Big 12. The offense is amazing behind QB Kyler Murray, but clearly the Mountaineers are going to have their opportunities on that side of the ball as well. WVU is out to atone for a 45-41 setback to Oklahoma State, a rare poor defensive effort. QB Will Grier was sharp though, finishing with 364 yards and two TDs. Note that WVU is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on WVU. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-18 | Hawaii v. Utah -9.5 | Top | 90-79 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* Tourney Takedown on Utah (11:30 EST). Hawaii enters off an 85-68 victory over Northern Arizona at home, while Utah comes in off a 98-63 win over Mississippi Valley State on Thursday. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Utes have to be loving their chances tonight to extend their win stark, as they’d cruise to an easy 80-60 home victory in this matchup last year in early December. Hawaii is averaging 72.7 PPG and it’s averaging 66.7. Zigmars Raimo leads the nightly charge with 16 points and 6.3 boards. The Warriors are horrible at the free-throw line, averaging only 59.5 percent. Utah is averaging 80.7 PPG and it’s allowing 67.3. Sedrick Barefield leads the way with 12 points per game. The Utes aren’t great at the line, but much better at 68 percent. Additionally note that Utah is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU win, while Hawaii is a poor 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with a winning SU record. Utah has six different players that score in double figures and I think that the Warriors will struggle to keep pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-18 | Oklahoma State v. Memphis +2.5 | 84-64 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis (4:00 EST). This is the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational. Oklahoma State enters off a 70-58 win over Charleston, while Memphis enters off a big 109-102 double OT win at home over Yale. So far the Cowboys are averaging 72 PPG, while conceding 61.3. Cameron McGriff leads the nightly charge with 17.7 points and 7.7 boards per game. Oklahoma State’s numbers are skewed a little because of early vanilla competition though in my opinion and note that it’s been terrible at the free-throw line this year, hitting only 63.2 percent. Memphis bounced back from a loss to LSU with a big victory over the experienced Bulldogs. Overall the Tigers are averaging 87 PPG and conceding 82.3. Jeremiah Martin leads the way with 17.7 points per game in the early going. I’ll point out as well that Memphis 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Oklahoma State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two or more SU victories. The Cowboys have struggled with consistency this year (blew a 24 points second half lead to lose to Charlotte and struggled to put away lowly UTSA.) Memphis on the other hand has gone toe to toe with both LSU and Yale and I look for its depth and grit to prove to be the difference here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +4.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST). The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th. The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here? The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year. Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -1 | 123-95 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Rivalry Rout is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The Warriors are dealing with many things right now. They’ve lost three in a row. Stephen Curry remains sidelined with injury. Also Kevin Durant and and Draymond Green have been fighting with each other publicly. However, with a chance to put all of that non sense behind them with a signature beatdown victory at home, I look for Steve Kerr to have his troops ready. OKC comes in with zero momentum after an upset loss to the Kings. Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Steven Adams looked pretty pedestrian against a young Kings’ team, perhaps in some small way they were looking ahead to this one. But Westbrook and George have not found their dominant form and I believe they’ll struggle again here in this difficult venue. Durant is going to have to worry about dealing with Green in this one, as he’ll be sitting this one out, along with Curry again. Durant had 26 points, ten boards and six assists in his teams most recent loss to the Spurs. Klay Thompson had 25 points, two boards and two assists. I’ll point out as well that OKC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while GS is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games following a three games or more losing streak. Durant and Thompson motivated at home are the difference makers. Play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-18 | Harvard v. San Francisco -6 | 57-61 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on San Francisco (10:00 EST). Harvard has to make the long trek across country for this late night West coast trip and I think the Crimson will stumble. Harvard most recently fell 76-74 in Rhode Island on Friday, while San Francisco remained unbeaten after an 84-52 win over LIU Brooklyn. The Crimson average 74.3 PPG and they allow 73.5. Chris Lewis leads the nightly charge with 15.8 points and 2.3 blocks per night. The Dons average 85.3 PPG and they concede just 49.5. Granted those numbers are somewhat skewed due to the level of some of the competition, but overall San Francisco has been excellent thus far. Charles Minlend leads the way with 15 PPG. Note as well that San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Dons experience proves to be the difference maker in the end in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-18 | Loyola-Chicago -4.5 v. Boston College | Top | 66-78 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Loyola Chicago (7:30 EST). The Ramblers are 4-1 and the BC Eagles are 3-1. This is the championship game for the Fort Myers Tip-Off from the Suncoast Credit Union Arena on Wednesday night. The Loyola Chicago Ramblers most recently posted an 82-66 win over Richmond to advance. Lucas Williamson led the charge in that one with 23 points, while Marques Townes added 15 points. Overall the Ramblers are averaging 74.2 PPG. BC enters the championship game off an 88-76 win over Wyoming, led by 38 points from Ky Bowman. Overall BC is averaging 76 PPG in the early going. I’ll point out though that Loyola-Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs, while BC is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests and only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. BC may have the best player on the floor in Bowman, but he can’t do it by himself. The depth the Ramblers bring to the table is the difference. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). No need to overthink this one. The Blazers come in “gassed” after a much tougher than expected 118-114 win over the Knicks in New York last night. The Bucks have been off since Monday after rallying for a 104-98 home win over the Nuggets on Monday. Note that this is an in-season revenge game for Milwaukee after the Blazers posted a 118-103 home victory back on November 6th. The Blazers are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re conceding 107.9. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 26.6 points and 6.1 assists per night. The Bucks are averaging 120.1 PPG and they’re conceding 109. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team with an average of 25.9 points to go with 12.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 8-1-1 ATS in its last ten at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning road record, while Portland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-18 | Utah Valley -3 v. Long Beach State | 87-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Utah Valley (5:00 EST). The 2-3 Utah Valley Wolverines get ready to battle the 2-3 LBSU 49ers at 5:00 EST in the MGM Resorts CBB tourney. The Wolverines got back into the winners circle with a 72-65 win over Hartford on Monday. Conner Toolson led the way in that one with 12 points, four boards and three assists, while TJ Washington added 11 points, four assists and three steals. LBSU enters off a tough 86-85 upset win over Ioan on Monday. It wasn’t pretty, as the 49ers would commit 24 turnovers. Temidayo Yussuf had 18 points, three boards and three steals. Utah Valley sports plenty of veteran experience and note that it’s done well in this spot for bettors, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight none conference games and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite, while LBSU has struggled in this spot, going only 15-21 ATS in its last 36 as an underdog and only 12-17 ATS in is last 29 non-conference games. Lay the points, play on Utah Valley. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-18 | Colorado v. San Diego -5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Diego (10:00 EST). The Buffs enter off a tougher than expected 79-75 win over Nebraska-Omaha, while San Diego comes in off a 95-47 destruction of San Diego Christian. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Toreros have to be loving their chances today as they’d win this match-up last year on the road 69-59. So far the Buffs are averaging 89.5 PPG and they’re conceding 73. Namon Wright had 11 pints and four boards in the most recent victory. San Diego is averaging 79.2 PPG, but the Toreros are allowing only 59. Isaiah Pineiro already has 53 points combined over the first two games. I’ll point out as well that San Diego is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Colorado is a poor 10-26-1 ATS in its last 37 following a SU win. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-18 | Pacific v. UNLV -3.5 | 70-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on UNLV (10:00 EST). These teams are matched evenly on the offensive side of the court, but the Runnin Rebels have a distinct advantage defensively and I believe that’ll be the difference in the end in this particular matchup. Pacific most recently won 83-76 vs. Idaho State, while UNLV posted a 74-61 home win over Oakland. Last year the Rebels won 81-76 in this game. The Tigers are averaging 77.2 PPG and they’re conceding 72.5. Anthony Townes had 14 points and seven boards in the win over Idaho State. The Rebels are averaging 65.3 PPG, but they’re conceding only 57.7. Shakur Juiston had 18 points and ten boards in the win over Oakland. Note that the Rebels are 4-2 ATS in their last six following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Pacific is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the MWC. I think the Tigers’ struggle against UNLV’s suffocating defensive play. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | VCU v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 57-51 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Temple (9:30 EST). This is the second game of the Legends Classic from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and in my opinion this spread could easily be a lot larger. This s Fran Dunphy’s last year as head coach of the Temple Owls and he has 561 career wins under his belt. The team is gunning for 580 to send him off and so far Temple is out to a 4-0 start, most recently downing Maryland 81-67 on Friday. Shizz Alston Jr. leads the nightly charge with 21.5 points and he’s made 14 from range over his last three games alone. Overall the Owls are averaging 80 PPG and conceding 69.5. VCU is averaging only 70 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by conceding only 58.3. Those numbers are skewed of ours because of some of the recent competition, most recently a 72-61 home win over Bowling Green. I’ll point out though that VCU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven neutral site affairs, while Temple is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 in the same position. The Owls have faced the tougher schedule to this point and they have the better numbers across the board. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this prime time and big time non conference Monday Night game. KC is averaging 35.3 PPG and it enters off a tougher than expected 26-14 win over Arizona last weekend. Is it a sign of things to come for this explosive offense? It was its lowest output of the year thus far (just saying.) LA is averaging 33.5 PPG and the Rams enter off a hard-fought 36-31 win over Seattle last Sunday. The Rams though are in a neck and neck race with the Saints (the only team they’ve lost to) and I look for them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here. Look for the Rams to take a page out of the Cardinals’ defensive playbook this week, as KC was held to a season-low 330 yards last Sunday. The Chiefs’ have been horrible defensively all year, especially against the run. I’m expecting Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley to have a big game here. Last week he topped 100 yards for the fifth time this year against a tough Seattle front. KC came up short against the Patriots in a Sunday night game last month, but the Rams feature a much more explosive offense. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New Orleans Pelicans (7:05 EST). I played on the Spurs last night in their win over the Warriors and I’m expecting a predictable letdown here against a hungry and rested Pelicans side. I base my selections on many different things, but the Spurs have been inconsistent at the best of times this year and the second game of a back to back on the road after such a monumental victory spells “trap” in my opinion. The Spurs are averaging 107.7 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 107.6 per 100 possessions. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim. The Pelicans are are averaging 112.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.6. Anthony Davis had 40 points, eight boards and eight assists in his team’s 125-115 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. The Spurs have struggled in this matchup, covering just twice in the last seven in the series. I look for that trend to continue here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Clippers v. Hawks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Clippers/Hawks (7:35 EST). The Hawks clearly can’t get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Clippers and expect to break their seven-game losing streak. With the home side putting an emphasis on trying to control the pace of this one, I think it’ll ultimately fall under this sky-high number once it’s all said and done. LA could be caught complacent here as well. Not many gave the Clippers hope this year, but LA enters on the heels of a four game win streak. Who would fault the Clippers for looking past their lowly non conference opponent in some small way today? The Clippers most recently beat the defensively inept Nets on Saturday, led by 16 points and ten boards from Montrezl Harrell in the fourth quarter alone. Jeremy Lin was a bright spot for Atlanta in the Hawks most recent loss to the Pacers, coming off the bench to score 16 points, grab four boards and dish out four assists. From a situational stand point I think it sets up nicely for an “under,” but also note that LA has seen the total go under in 20 of its last 33 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Atlanta has seen the total dip under in 12 of its last 18 after playing three consecutive road games. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-18 | Old Dominion -4 v. Northern Iowa | 53-54 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Old Dominion (3:00 EST). This is part of the 2018 Paradise Jam tournament in the Virgin Islands. Both teams come in at 2-2. ODU enters off a 65-47 win over Kennesaw State, led by 14 points from Ahmad Caver. BJ Stith would go on to add 13 points and ten boards. Overall the Monarchs have been getting strong defensive play and are averaging 63 PPG. Northern Iowa comes in off a 90-85 win over Eastern Kentucky. AJ Green led the way with 23 points, while Spencer Haldeman added 16. In the early going the Panthers are averaging 80.8 PPG. But now UNI faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. Note as well that the Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games, while ODU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 50 points or less. I’m banking on ODU’s experience and superior defensive play to prove to be the difference here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -1 | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 150 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST). The Vikes smashed the Lions 24-9 in Week 9 before their bye week and suffice it to say, I believe they come to this difficult venue with some “rust.” Chicago on the other hand destroyed Detroit 34-22 and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here as well. Additionally note that this is a “double revenge” game for the Bears after Minnesota took both contests last season. Overall the Vikings average 24.6 PPG, while conceding 22.7. QB Kirk Cousins has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 17/5 TD/INT. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re conceding only 19.4. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 2,304 passing yards and a 19/7 TD/INT. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is still just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division, while Chicago already 2-0 ATS against the division this season and now 3-1 ATS after two or more SU wins. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). The Warriors lost in Dallas last night and I believe the under-manned defending champions are ripe for the picking here as well. The Spurs come in hungry after a 116-111 road loss to the Clippers on Thursday. San Antonio though has had a few nights off to absorb the setback and I look for it to push the pace from start to finish here against the exhausted Warriors. Golden State is averaging 118.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.8. Kevin Durant is averaging 27 points, 7.2 boards and 6.3 assists per game. The Warriors are without star Stephen Curry and Draymond Green is questionable with a toe injury. The Spurs are averaging 107.9 PPG and they’re conceding just 108.8. DeMar DeRozan averages 25.6 points and 6.3 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that the Warriors are now a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this year, while San Antonio is already 4-2 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. The Spurs have lost three straight and five of six and they’ll be risking life and limb to score the victory here. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | UCF -1 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Takedown is on UCF (6:30 EST). I play against the UCF Knights on the College Gridiron last night and lost badly with Cincinnati. But I think the Knights are the correct call on the hardwood vs. the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky in the championship game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. UCF beat St. Joe’s 77-57 on Friday, while the Hilltoppers bested WVU 63-57 Friday The Knights shot 55 percent from the floor in their win Friday, led by 22 points from Terrell Allen. Overall UCF is averaging 77 PPG and allowing just 64.8. WVU is riding a three-game win streak as well, but after Friday’s upset win over the Mountaineers, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. WKU is averaging 71.8 PPG and it’s conceding 68. I’ll point out though that the Mountaineers are just 1-4 ATS in their last three after a three games or more non-conference unbeaten streak, while UCF is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. I think UCF wears down WVU and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -114 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles. It’s do or die for the defending champs. The Eagles are 4-5 and in desperate need of a victory. Philly has lost two of its last three on the road, but QB Carson Wentz definitely hasn’t been the issue, as he so far has completed 71 percent of his passes for 2,148 yards, 15 TDs and three INTs. Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor remain elite as well with 1,244 receiving yards and six TDs combined. Defensively the Eagles are conceding a respectable 20.3 PPG. New Orleans is 8-1 overall, having won eight in a row. All good things come to an end right? Well, I won’t actually call for an outright upset here Saints’ veteran QB Drew Brees has 2,601 passing yards with a 21/1 TD/INT. The Saints lead most offensive categories and they have too, as the defense has been nothing special, allowing 25.8 PPG. I’ll point out that Philly is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a divisional contest and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss to a division rival, while New Orleans is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Wentz and the offense will be given the green light and they catch a break today facing the Saints’ terrible secondary. I like Philadelphia to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Panthers v. Lions UNDER 52 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 143 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Total is the under Panthers/Lions (1:00 EST). Carolina is out to atone for its 52-21 loss in Pittsburgh last week. Detroit is also out for a little redemption after its 34-22 loss in Chicago last Sunday. Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 PPG and they’re conceding 25.8. Carolina is still second in the NFC South, but after giving up 457 yards last weekend, the worst of the season to date, clearly Carolina will be out for a better performance today against the incredibly one-dimensional Lions. Detroit’s defense wasn’t actually all that bad in last week’s loss, giving up 348 total yards. Overall though they’re allowing 27.1 PPG, which is ranked 28th in the NFl. The offense has been an issue as well this year for Detroit, as Matt Stafford has a poor 16/8 TD/INT and overall the unit is averaging only 22.4 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after two or more SU losses. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -120 | 143 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* 35 Club Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are 4-5 and each is desperate for a victory. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up though. It’s difficult to win on the road and the Cowboys come in off a big road victory just last week over the Eagles in Philadelphia, but asking Dallas to duplicate that big effort on consecutive weeks is going to be just too much for the visitors today. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott had 270 yards and a TD in the win over the Eagles last week, while RB Ezekiel Elliot had 151 yards and a TD. The Falcons most recently lost to the Browns after they had won big on the road the week before. As stated off the top, having to win on the road is difficult at the best of times, but having to do it two weeks in a row is extremely difficult and Atlanta fell victim to a hungry Cleveland team. The Cowboys now face the identical situation here. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 330 yards and two scores last week, while WR Julio Jones had 107 receiving yards and seven catches. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win, while Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a non-conference road loss of more than ten points. The stage is set for a predictable letdown for Dallas after its big prime time win over the defending champs. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). I think the Titans predictably stumble here after their epic win over New England last week. The Colts and the ever-improving Andrew Luck continue to get little respect, as they come into this one on top form with three straight victories. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota has sure looked a lot better of late as well, leading his team to back-to-back victories. Last week Mariota had 228 yards and two TDs against the Pats. Prior to this two-game sure though he had six TDs and eight INTs. Luck has been the beneficiary of a revamped offensive line and he’s now playing arguably the best ball of his entire career. Luck or Mariota in College, who would you take? Last week Indy had 366 yards and 29 points on Jacksonville. I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is still just 9-13 ATS in its last 22 on the road and a horrible 2-8 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU wins, while Indy is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | Cincinnati +7.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Cincinnati (8:00 EST). This is a big game for both teams. The Bearcats are 9-1 and the UCF Knights are 9-0. Cincinnati has won four of its last five on the road and QB Desmond Ridder has 1,897 passing yards and a sharp 15/5 TD/INT. Note that Ridder has two or more TD passes in six of his last eight games. The ground game is averaging whopping 235.8 YPG, led by Michael Warren II with 1,082 yard and 17 TDs. Overall the Bearcats are allowing just 14.9 points and 279.8 YPG. The Knights’ McKenzie Milton has 2,309 yards passing and a 21/5 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 271.4 YPG and the defense is conceding 21.8. I think the Bearcats will have their chances today. They’re already 3-1 ATS this year as an underdog. UFC though is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. UCF may ultimately win this one outright, but I look for Ridder and company to take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | St. Louis +6 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on St. Louis (8:00 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset here, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Saint Louis is 3-0, most recently taking care of North Alabama 69-58. Javon Bess had 16 points and ten boards, leading four players in double figures in scoring. Note that the Billikens have five players with at least six assists and it also has a 1.64 assist-to-turnover ratio. Seton Hall lost four starters from last year and it showed in a humbling 80-57 loss to Nebraska on Wednesday. Myles Powell was a bright spot with 24 points. I’ll point out as well that Seton Hall is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while St. Louis is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as a road underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. This one has outright upset written all over it my opinion, but as stated off the top, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | Jazz v. Celtics -4 | Top | 98-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Celtics (7:35 EST). Both teams played last night. Utah fell 113-107 in Philadelphia and I think it’ll stumble here as well in this difficult road venue. The Celtics slugged out with Toronto at home and eventually pulled away for the 113-107 victory. The second game of a back-to-back is always difficult, but always much more so for the road team. I think fatigue will be a factor for the Jazz, who laid everything they had on the line last night to try and pull off the upset. Clearly the Celtics had to work hard as well, but again, the “not travelling factor” is huge in this case in my opinion. Furthermore note that Utah is just 34-40 ATS in its last 74 as an underdog, while Boston is 46-25 ATS in its last 71 when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (Jazz claimed a 123-115 home win on Nov. 9th.) All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | Tulsa +5 v. Navy | 29-37 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 51 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (8*) Tulsa (3:30 EST). Neither team has anything to play for now except pride as each sits at just 2-8. Note though that Tulsa plays with revenge here after the Midshipmen beat the Golden Hurricane 31-21. Tulsa fell flat 47-21 to Memphis last weekend. Corey Taylor II is the focal point of the offense and he so far has 748 rushing yards and seven TD’s on the ground. Defense has been the weak point for Tulsa all season. Navy has struggled with offensive consistency of late. The Midshipmen rank last in the country in passing with only 64.7 YPG average, while ranking third in the country in rushing with 295.7 YPG. Defensively the mids are in fact pretty poor as well, ranked 105th in yards allowed and 95th against the run. Additionally note that Tulsa is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a conference rival, while Navy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a very competitive battle. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | West Virginia -5.5 v. Oklahoma State | 41-45 | Loss | -107 | 122 h 51 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (8*) WVU (3:30 EST). Oklahoma State comes in off a near upset over Oklahoma and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. In fact the Cowboys have now lost two in a row. And that’s bad news facing a surging WVU team which has won its last three over TCU, Texas and Baylor. West Virginia QB Will Grier so far has 2,961 yards, 31 TDs and eight INTs. Grier has thrown for 300-plus yards over three straight starts, most recently going for 343 with three TDs and an INT against the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma State came up just short 48-47 last week and I think it’s primed for a letdown. QB Taylor Cornelius had 501 passing yards and three TDs, but the defense was a disaster show, allowing 702 yards to the Sooners. Note that WVU is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a win of more than 20 points, while Oklahoma State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS victory. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss +2.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 122 h 51 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on (9*) Southern Miss (3:30 EST). Southern Miss comes in off a a near upset of UAB and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Louisiana Tech enters off a victory over lowly Rice, but I think the Bulldogs come up short here. Bulldogs’ QB J’Mar Smith had 314 yards with one TD and two INTs last week. But Louisiana Tech is going to have its hands full with this Golden Eagles team which just pushed the mighty Blazers to OT. QB Tate Whatley and the offense managed 23 points last week and note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +3.5 points range. I think the Southern Miss defense is the difference maker, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Play on Southern Miss. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-18 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* play in on UCLA (3:30 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. USC enters off a 15-14 home loss to Cal, and I think it suffers a predictable letdown here after that upset. UCLA enters off a tight 31-28 road loss to ASU on Saturday. USC is averaging 26.9 PPG and it’s conceding 26.6. QB JT Daniels has 1,986 passing yards with 11 TDs and eight iNTs. UCLA won’t be playing in a bowl, but it won’t be going down without a fight in the first season of the Chip Kelly ear. Last week the Bruins were edged 480-439, and they come into this one averaging 21.9 points, while allowing 33.3. I’l point out that USC is just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival and only 7-8 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while UCLA is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 off a loss against a conference rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on UCLA. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-18 | Memphis -8 v. SMU | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 104 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* AAC West Showdown is on Memphis (9:00 EST). Memphis is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while SMU is 5-5 and needing one more win to punch its ticket. The Tigers won’t be satisfied with simply making a bowl game though and they’ll love nothing more than to prolong the Mustangs chances for another week. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting a decisive Memphis win. The Tigers have won two straight, but they’ll be cautious here as they’ve lost three of their last four away from friendly confines. QB Brady White so far has 2,512 passing yards and a sharp 22/3 TD/INT. Overall Memphis is allowing 30.5 PPG. SMU has won two in a row and three of its last four at home, but with the step up in competition, I believe the Mustangs predictably stumble here. William Brown and Ben Hicks have combined for 23 TD passes and five INTs. The Mustangs are even worse defensively than Memphis though, allowing 36.8 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Memphis is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference games and that the favorite is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. The Tigers have scored more than 30 points five straight games and I look for that trend to carry over here. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-18 | Kings +7 v. Grizzlies | 104-112 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). Memphis comes in off a big 116-113 road win over Milwaukee and I think it’ll have a predictable letdown here at home against its lowly opponent. And that’s not good news facing this improved Kings side, which has had three whole nights off to prepare for this one after beating the Spurs 104-99 at home. And if recent history is any precedence, then Sacramento has to be liking its chances tonight, because when these teams met last month, it was the Kings that posted the 97-92 home victory. The Kings are averaging 114.5 PPG and they’re conceding 115.5. Sacramento got 22 points from Bogdan Bogdanovic in the most recent victory. The Grizzlies are averaging only 102.2 PPG, but they’re conceding just 101.6. Big man Marc Gasol had 29 points in the big upset win over the Bucks. I’ll point out though that Sacramento is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 when playing on three days rest and I believe this is going to be a big difference in the outcome of this one. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -3 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:05 EST). The Jazz come in off a deflating 118-68 road loss in Dallas and I think they’re ripe for the picking here as well. Philadelphia enters off a 111-106 road loss to Orlando on Wednesday. The Jazz come in averaging 107.4 PPG and conceding 108.9. Donovan Mitchell had led the way with 20.4 PPG so far, while Rudy Gobert has chipped in 15.9 points, 13.2 boards and 2.21 blocks per contest. The 76ers return home and welcome the new acquired Jimmy Butler’s first home game. The 76ers are averaging 112.3 PPG and they’re conceding 112.8. Big Man Joel Embiid has been unstoppable so far, averaging 27.6 points, 13.4 boards and 2.13 blocks per game. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while the Jazz are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 75 points or less in their last outing. The 76ers are a “different” team at home, coming into this one undefeated thus far. And I look for that strong trend to carry over here in this favorable match-up. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-18 | Connecticut v. Iowa -4 | Top | 72-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Champ Game Crusher is on Iowa (6:30 EST). Both teams are 3-0 to open the year. This is the championship game of the 2K classic from New York. UConn got here by upsetting Syracuse 83-76 last night. Jalen Adams and Alterique Gilbert each had 16 points. Overall the Huskies are averaging 85.7 PPG. I played on the Hawkeyes in their 77-69 upset victory over Oregon. Jordan Bohannon was a standout with 16 points, while Luke Garza added 12. Overall Iowa is averaging 85 PPG. I’ll point out though that the UConn is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games, while Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference contests. I think the Hawkeyes find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Iowa. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic +3 v. North Texas | Top | 38-41 | Push | 0 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Florida Atlantic (9:30 EST). FAU enters off a 34-15 drubbing of WKU and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Mean Green though enter off a tough 34-31 loss against ODU last weekend and I believe it’ll stumble again here as well. If recent history is any precedence, then FAU has to be liking its chances for another big victory tonight, because when these teams met last year it was FAU that posted the 69-31 home win. FAU has in fact won two in a row. The Owls don’t really rely on QB Chris Robison, who has an admittedly poor 8/10 TD/INT. He was very sharp last week though by completing 17 of 21 for 231 yards. But the FAU offense revolves around RB Devin Singletary, who already has 1,169 rushing yards to go along with 20 TD’s. Overall the Owls are averaging 31.1 PPG and they’re conceding 31.3. North Texas is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 20.3, but last week it looked poor in the road loss to ODU. QB Mason Fine had 240 yards and two TDs and he still has an amazing 23/2 TD/INT on the year, but after last week’s collapse, I think the hungry Owls will have their opportunities today to pull off the outright upset. Note that FAU is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while UNT is just 3-5 ATS as a favorite this year and already 0-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Oregon v. Iowa +4 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Takedown is on Iowa (9:30 EST). The No. 13 Oregon Ducks take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the semi finals of the 2K Classic at MSG tonight. Oregon enters off an 81-47 victory over Eastern Washington, while Iowa comes in off a 93-82 win at home over Green Bay. The Ducks are aerating 82.5 PPG and allowing 52. Bol Bol leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points, 12.5 boards and 3.5 blocks per game. Iowa would love to pull of the upset obviously to reach the championship game. The Hawkeyes come in averaging 85 PPG and conceding 72.5. Tyler Cook averages 14.5 points and seven boards per game. I’ll point out as well that Oregon is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 neutral site affairs, while Iowa is a solid 6-4 in all neutral court contests. This one has the feel that whichever team has its hands on the ball last will find a way to get the job done in the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Green Bay Packers (8:20 EST). This is essentially a do or die game for each team. Both are on the fringe of the playoff picture and a loss today would pretty much spell the end. So with that in mind, I’m absolutely expecting a battle until the final whistle. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Green Bay enters off a confidence building 31-12 home win over Miami, while Seattle comes in off a deflating 36-31 road loss to the Rams. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has 2,741 passing yards with a 17/1 TD/INT. Overall the Packers out gained the Fish 377-294. I believe that Green Bay carries over both its offensive and defensive momentum into this one vs. an motivationally drained Seahawks side. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has 1,967 yards with 21 TDs and five INTs. So far Wilson has been sacked 29 times this year. Chris Carson leads the ground game with only 497 yards and two scores. It’s a short week, so I don’t think home field advantage is a factor. Additionally note that Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games, while Seattle is just 10-14 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite (only 1-2 ATS in its three Thursday night games as well.) Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout Gold is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Golden State knocked off the Rockets in the playoffs last year. Chris Paul was injured in Game 5 and Houston wasted a 3-2 lead. The Warriors return to Houston without leader Stephen Curry and I think that Paul and company will lay the hammer down from start to finish. Note that Houston did take two of three in the regular season last year, including a 116-108 victory at home in the final one back on January 20th. Golden State enters averaging 120.7 PPG, while conceding 111 per night. Kevin Durant is averaging 27.5 points, 7.3 boards and 6.5 assists per game. Houston enters averaging 103.2 PPG and it’s allowing 106.7. James Harden is averaging 27.3 points, 5.6 boards and 7.7 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 2-4 ATS on the road, while Houston is now 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Houston can move back to .500 with a win today. It comes in on top form having won five of the last seven. After a slow start the Rockets have returned to form on both ends of the floor, so their early season numbers are skewed after the slow start. Play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-18 | UCF v. CS-Fullerton +4 | 68-52 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on CS Fullerton (2:00 EST). UCF enters off an 89-79 home loss to FAU, while CS Fullerton posted a 106-53 win over non-division 1 West Coast Baptist. UCF is now 1-1, averaging 81.5 PPG and conceding 75. BJ Taylor had 29 points in a losing cause to FAU. CS Fullerton is 1-1, getting 35 points from Kyle Allman Jr. in the opening win. Over two games the Titans have averaged 100 points per game and conceded 77.5. I’ll point out that UCF is just 2-4 ATS in its last six neutral court contests, while CS Fullerton is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 as an underdog and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers -2.5 | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. LA comes in on top form as it’s won three straight after Sunday’s victory over Atlanta. Portland has won four in a row, but after knocking off the Celtics at home in its latest, I think it’ll stumble in its first game on the road. Portland is conceding 106.2 PPG, ranked fifth overall. Jusuf Nurkic had 17 points and 17 boards in his teams victory over the C’s. LA’s issues are on the defensive end of the floor, but LeBron James and company have no problems at all scoring. James finished with 26 points, seven boards and four assists in the victory over Atlanta. The Lakers are 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and already 3-1 ATS when playing with two days of rest. Blazers’ star player Damian Lillard will likely play, but he’s still playing through a minor injury today. Look for James to take advantage and lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST). I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I believe this is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. NIU is rolling after back to back wins over Toledo and Akron, while Miami Ohio kept its bowl hopes alive with an impressive victory over Ohio last Wednesday. The Redhawks have no time to dwell on that win though as they have to keep the foot on the gas if they want to reach the promised land. Special teams came up big for Miami Ohio last week, as it would block a punt in the end zone for a TD. The defense also posted a second half fourth quarter safety. NIU is getting great play from RB Tre Harbison, who had 21 carries for 139 yards last week. QB Marcus Childers though hasn’t been spectacular and I think he’ll struggle against this aggressive and improving Miami Ohio defense. Note as well that Miami Ohio is already 3-0 ATS tho shear off a win against a conference rival, while NIU is still only 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a favourite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The Redhawks look vastly improved defensively last week and another effort like that could have them scoring the outright upset tonight. That said, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-18 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 57-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Seton Hall (7:30 EST). I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I think the Pirates have what it takes to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Seton Hall lost most of its starting line-up from last year, but it returns one and the Pirates opened with a convincing 89-49 win over Wagner to open the year. Myles Powell had 30 points, going 5 of 7 from range, while Michael Nzei had 11 points and seven boards. The Pirates were on a five game win streak against the Big Ten before falling 71-65 to Rutgers last December. Nebraska missed out on the Tournament last year, but it’s opened the season with back to back blowout wins. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Huskers have held both opponents to under 40 points, but I think the step up in competition today will catch Nebraska off guard. I’ll point out as well that Seton Hall is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games as an underdog in the +7.5 to +10.5 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Seton Hall. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-18 | Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 220 | Top | 95-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Month is on the under Cavs/Wizards (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a big win over the Hornets at home last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable offensive letdown here from the under-manned and inconsistent Cavs. Washington enters off a much needed 117-109 win over Orlando and it’ll be out to control the tempo/pace of this one and punch another one into the win column. The Cavs are 27th in the league in scoring with an average of 103.3 PPG, but on the second game of the back to back, I have a hard time seeing Cleveland even reaching that mark. The defense is conceding 113.1 PPG, but it admittedly looked a lot better against the Hornets last night. The Wizards are averaging 111 PPG and they’re conceding 118.5. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success, but Washington has looked a lot better of late on both end of the court and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Note that the Cavs have interestingly already seen the total go “under” the number in six of seven vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Wizards have seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 23 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-18 | Rhode Island v. College of Charleston -1.5 | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider on the College Of Charleston (7:00 EST). I think Rhode Island comes up short in this tough non-conference mach up. The Rams lost several key figures over the offseason that contributed to their back-to-back NCAA Tournament teams (which includes head coach Dan Hurley, who went to UConn.) The Charleston Cougars though went to the tournament for the first time since 1999 last year and they return several key members, including Grant Riler, who averaged 18.6 PPG and Jarell Brantley, who added 17.3. Charleston most recently beat Western Carolina 73-70 with Riler leading the way with 28 points. The Cougars are averaging 104.9 PPG per 100 possessions and they’re allowing 99.9 points per 100 possessions. Rhode Island did open the year with a win over lowly Bryant on Tuesday, taking down the Bears 97-63. Fatts Russell had 21 points. So far the Rams have averaged 103.4 points per 100 possessions, while giving up 97.4 points per 100 possessions. I’ll point out though that Charleston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning SU records, while Rhode Island is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in the same position. The Cougars depth and experience wins the game. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan +4 v. Oakland | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST). WMU comes in off a 90-64 road loss to Ole Miss, while the Golden Grizzlies fell flat in an 87-86 setback at home Toledo. Note that this is a revenge game for the Broncos after Oakland posted a 78-73 road win over WMU last year. Over two games this year the Broncos have so far averaged 76.5 PPG, while holding their opposition to 73.4. Josh Davis has so far posted 26 points over the two contests. Oakland is averaging 78.2 PPG and it’s allowing 76.2. Jaevin Cumberland scored 14 points in the loss to the Rockets. I’ll point out though that that Golden Grizzlies are just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 at home and 0-5 ATS following an ATS victory, while WMU is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU loss of more than 20 points. For all the reasons listed above, play on Western Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Spurs -3 v. Kings | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (10*) San Antonio Spurs (10:05 EST). San Antonio comes in off an impressive 96-89 home win over Houston and I think it carries that momentum over here against a Kings team which is already running out of gas after a hot start to the year, most recently falling 101-86 at home to the Lakers. San Antonio broke a two-game slide and it’s now averaging 109.5 PPG, while conceding 107.9. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 18.3 points in three games vs. the Kings last year and he had 27 points and ten boards in the most recent win. Sacramento has lost three of its last four. The Kings average 115.3 PPG and they concede 116.8. Note that Sacramento s also just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Spurs are a sharp 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Western Conference. San Antonio appears to be back on track defensively, which spells trouble for Sacramento tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Utah v. Minnesota -7.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Minnesota (9:00 EST). Utah opened with a 75-61 win over Maine on Thursday, but it’s clearly going to have its hands full here against a Golden Gophers team which comes in off a convincing victory itself on Opening night. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. The Utes were led by Sedrick Barefield, who had 18 points. Donnie Tillman added 15. Utah held Maine to 40 percent shooting and held a 42-26 rebounding advantage. Note though that the Utes are just 4-13 in non-conference road games since 2011/12. The Golden Gophers smashed Omaha 104-76, as Amir Coffey shined with 18 points, four assists and two steals. Dupre McBreyer was another standout with 17 points. Note that the Gophers are 46-4 at home in non-conference games once 2013, winning 20 of the last 21. I’ll point out as well that Utah is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 as an underdog, while Minnesota is 23-17 ATS In its last 40 as a favorite. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Giants +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the New York Giants (8:15 EST) These are two horrible teams, but I think that a week off to prepare for this one will do Eli Manning and Odell Beckham and the rest of the Giants “good” on Monday night. San Francisco comes in off a 34-3 win over the hapless Raiders, but with its bye week upcoming, I absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic “let down/look-ahead” spot for the home side. Beckham recently joked that he expects his team to finish the season on an 8-0 run and make the playoffs and while that clearly isn’t going to happen, I think Manning has at least one more decent effort in him (especially after the bye week.) The 49ers are on their third QB of the year in Nick Mullens and while he looked decent against a poor Raiders’ unit, I think he’ll have his hands full with this much deeper Giants’ defense. Note as well that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and on a three games or more SU losing streak. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | Jazz -2.5 v. Grizzlies | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) Utah Jazz (8:05 EST). Utah enters off a momentum building 123-115 home win over Boston on Friday, while Memphis comes in off a 112-106 OT victory at home over Philadelphia. Note that this is a “double revenge” game for Utah, as Memphis has already taken both meetings so far this season, including a 110-100 road victory on November 2nd. Utah is averaging 111.6 PPG and it’s conceding 109.9. Donovan Mitchell leads the nightly charge with 22.3 points, while Rudy Gobert adds 16.4 points, 13.3 boards and 2.33 blocks per night. Memphis is averaging only 103.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end of the floor, holding the opposition to 101.1 PPG. Mike Conley leads the way with 18.1 points and six assists per night. I’ll point out thought that the Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, while Memphis is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following an OT victory in which it scored 110 points or more in previously. Look for the revenge minded Jazz to pull away down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 223 | 124-114 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) under 76ers/Heat (7:35 EST). Philadelphia’s three-game win streak came to an end in a 116-112 OT setback in Memphis on Saturday. Miami is looking to get back to its winning ways as well after falling 116-110 at home to Washington on Saturday. Philly is just 1-6 ATS on the road this year. Overall the 76ers are averaging 111.9 PPG and conceding 112.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Joel Embiid is averaging 27.7 points and 13.1 boards per game. Miami is averaging 110.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.6 as well. Once again, clearly this isn’t a recipe for success either. Goran Dragic leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.9 assists per night. Note though that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 13 of its last 20 after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in its last four games vs. teams with losing records. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt +2.5 v. USC | Top | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Vanderbilt (9:00 EST). Both teams come into this one at 1-0, as USC routed Robert Morris and Vandy smashed Winthrop. Vanderbilt is led by Darius Garland, who had 24 points, four assists and two steals in the season opening victory. Simi Shittu was a stand out as well with 18 points, ten boards, two blocks and two steals. USC is led by Kevin Porter Jr, who had 15 points and five boards in the win over Robert Morris. But note that the Trojans were sloppy, committing 15 turnovers, a result of point guard Jordan McLaughlin being absent. Last year he was the Pac 12 assists leader. These are two evenly matched teams, but Vanderbilt plays with revenge after a 93-89 OT loss last year in Nashville. USC’s top player Bennie Boatwright did not play in the opener and if he does get the call tonight, his overall health is still a concern. I like Garland to lead his team to a victory, but that said, I’m going to grab the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 151 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Night Magic is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST). Golden Tate makes his debut with the Eagles on Sunday night and I think he and Carson Wentz will be too much for the struggling Cowboys to handle. After a slow start, the defending champs now sit one game behind the Redskins for the NFC East lead. Washington is now suffering through injuries, so the door is now open for the Eagles to put the foot on the gas and re-gain command. Dallas comes in reeling, it’s dropped two straight, most recently a listless 28-14 setback on Monday to Tennessee. WR Amari Cooper had five catches for 58 yards and a TD. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 243 yards and two TDs, but he was also sacked five times and he’d go on to throw an INT in the end zone as well. The Dallas defense looked horrible as well, allowing Tennessee to convert 11 of 14 on third down. Also note that the Cowboys committed two turnovers for a second straight game. Wentz dominated the Cowboys last year in two games, going for 413 yards, four TDs and zero INTs. The Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win and after dropping their last two games at home, I expect Philadelphia to lay the hammer down here early and often. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Denver Nuggets (8:05 EST). Two teams which started off the year red hot have come back down to Earth of late. However, I don’t think that that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. Milwaukee enters off a loss to the Clippers just last night, a game which went to OT. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” This is the finale of the Bucks longest West coast trip of the year (already won at Golden State) and in my opinion, I think Milwaukee gets caught looking ahead to a couple of well deserved days off. The Nuggets on the other hand will be out to atone for a 112-110 loss at home to the lowly Nets on Friday. Milwaukee is averaging 121.2 PPG and allowing 107.6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25.6 points, 12.9 boards and 5.7 assists per game. Denver actually comes in off back-to-back losses, so “focus” for the home side is not something we have to worry about. Denver averages 109.6 PPG an fit concedes just 102.1. Nikola Jokic averages 17.6 points, ten boards and seven assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a winning road record, while Milwaukee is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The Bucks come in “gassed” at the end of their trip, and playing at “Mile High” against a determined Nuggets team proves to be too much once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Falcons -4 v. Browns | 16-28 | Loss | -105 | 144 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Cleveland isn’t going to the playoffs. The Browns have already won a couple of games this year, which is clearly a vast improvement over last season’s winless squad. But the Falcons come in on top form and I believe that momentum is going to be carried over. After a 1-4 start, Atlanta has now won three straight. The Falcons are averaging 28.5 PPG and they’re allowing 28.3. The offense is averaging 338 YPG through the air. QB Matt Ryan has 2,685 passing yards and a sharp 19/3 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland has “improved” over last year’s inept squad, but the numbers still aren’t great. Overall Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense is averaging 21.1 PPG, while the defense is conceding 27.4. I’ll point out as well that ATL is a sharp 9-4 ATS in its last 13 following two or more SU victories, while Cleveland is just 6-23 ATS in its last 29 after two or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Saints v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The 7-1 New Orleans Saints are in Cincinnati to take on the 5-3 Bengals on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, I think that Drew Brees and company finally run out of gas here. New Orleans most recently took care of the Rams in a high-scoring affair at home last weekend. Brees had 346 yards and four TDs, while Alvin Kamara had 83 yards and two TDs. The Saints have to be feeling pretty content after that last win and I think this non-conference road game will lead to a mental letdown after last week’s big victory. Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 280 yards and two TD’s in his team’s most recent win over the Bucs. From a trend based stand point, note that New Orleans has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. Despite AJ Green having to sit this one out for Cincinnati, I think the Bengals will keep this competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Redskins v. Bucs UNDER 51.5 | 16-3 | Win | 100 | 144 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U top play is the under Redskins/Bucs (1:00 EST). Washington will be eager to get back on track here after a 38-14 setback at home to Atlanta, while the Bucs are also out for some redemption after a 42-28 blowout road loss in Carolina last weekend. Washington is averaging just 20 PPG this year, as it’s been the defense doing the “heavy lifting” most weekends, allowing a respectable 21.5 PPG. QB Alex Smith has 1,867 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT, while RB Adrian Peterson has 604 rushing yards on the season. TB is averaging 28.6 PPG and it’s allowing 34.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. But the Bucs catch a break this week in my opinion facing a Redskins offense that’s still trying to find itself. While these are normally two higher-scoring teams, I’ll point out that the Redskins have seen the total go under the number in six of their last eight as an underdog, while the Bucs have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 14 following two or more consecutive SU losses. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. Both teams are 3-5. Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league. The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records. The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | California +5 v. USC | Top | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 130 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on California (10:30 EST). Both teams need one more win to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a war to the end in this one. Cal will be hungry here to get back on track after it fell 19-13 to WSU this past weekend. A bright spot in the setback was the play of QB Chase Garbers, who had 127 yards, one TD, one INT and another 67 yards on the ground. Cal is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.9. USC looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after it broke its two game slide last time out with a 38-21 win over Oregon State. Aca-Cedric Ware had 205 rushing yards and three TDs. Overall the Trojans are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re conceding 27.9. I’ll point out as well that Cal is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 14 points or less in a conference loss in its last outing, while USC is only 2-6 ATS In its last eight after scoring 37 points or more in a conference contest in its previous outing. Ultimately I think the Golden Bears’ elite defense keeps them in this one late and as stated off the top, I’m expecting a competitive battle until the final moments. Grab as many points as you can, play on Cal. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Lakers -5.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Lakers (10:05 EST). This is an important game for the Lakers, who also have a game at home tomorrown night against the Hawks. I think LeBron James and company put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one as they try to sweep these two games and start to move in a positive direction. LA enters off a 114-110 win over the Wolves on Wednesday, while Sacramento comes in dog tired after last night’s 121-110 victory over Minnesota last night. The Lakers can score, averaging 118.5 PPG, which is ranked third in the league. The defense is the issue, allowing 119.1 PPG. While the Kings are an “up-tempo” style of team, LA does catch a break here catching the home side playing the second game of the back-to-back. The Kings are averaging 117.5 PPG and they’re conceding 118.8. De’Aaron Fox has been superb, averaging 18.7 points and 7.3 assists per game. I think it’s important to note though that Sacramento is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while LA is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. divisional opponents. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Loyola Marymount v. UNLV -4 | Top | 61-50 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on UNLV (10:00 EST). UNLV improved to 20-13 last season and I think it’ll “bring the heat” on Opening night. Loyola Marymount was 11-20 last year and the Lions haven’t had a winning season since 2012. The Rebels have three capable seniors in Noah Robtham, Kris Clyburn and Shakur Julston. Last year Julston averaged 14.6 points and ten boards per game. The Lions are already 1-0, coming into this one contented off a 75-43 win over lowly Westcliff. Previous to last year’s disastrous overall start, Loyola Marymount actually went 15-15. But last season was a major step back, especially against the conference, finishing 5-13 in league play. The Rebels have the more experienced senior group of players and on opening night, I think that’s going to be more than enough to take care of the “thin” Lions. Loyola Marymount shot only 35.7 percent from behind the arc in their opening victory, which isn’t going to get the job done tonight. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Oregon v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 122 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Utah (5:30 EST). Both teams enter at 6-3, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done. The Ducks broke their two-game slide with a 42-21 win over UCLA last time out, punching their sixth win of the year and eligibility. Oregon was actually out gained by UCLA 496-492, but the Ducks would benefit from recovering three turnovers. Overall Oregon is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s led by QB Justin Herbert, who has 22 TDs and six INTs. The Ducks’ defensively allow 27.6 PPG. The Utes average 30.3 PPG and they concede only 19.1. RB Zack Moss has 11 TD’s on the year while averaging over 121 YPG. The Ducks bounced back after consecutive losses on the road, but I think they’ll struggle again here in this difficult venue. Utah lost starting QB Tyler Huntley last time out, but behind Moss and a 17th ranked defensive unit, I believe the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -2.5 | 22-52 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* ACC (Coastal) Showdown is on Pittsburgh at 3;30 ET. What has happened in Blacksburg in 2018. The Hokies opened 2-0 and were ranked 13th when they lost 49-35 at Old Dominion (as a 4-TD fave), allowing the Monarchs to run up 632 yards (Frank Beamer must be steaming somewhere). Va Tech is 4-4 overall (3-2 in the ACC Coastal) and has allowed 43.5 PPG in those four losses. In contrast, Pitt has won three of four (5-4 overall but 4-1 in ACC play) and now leads the ACC Coastal, after the team's 23-13 (at +7.5) upset at Virginia. A number of final thoughts. Pitt who has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings with Va Tech, including seven outright upsets (note: Pitt is the small favorite here). The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and note that the Panthers have won their last four ACC home games (Miami last year plus Ga Tech, Duke and Syra this year). Pitt ran for 254 yards in the upset of Virginia (Hall had 229) and the Panthers (averaging 230,8 YPG on the ground on the season) will go up against a Va Tech rush D that has allowed 219 or more rush yards in each of the team's last three games. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Washington State -6 v. Colorado | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Washington St at 3:30 ET. Wash St fell out of the Ap top-25 after losing the Holiday Bowl 42-17 to Mich St. The Cougars were picked fifth in the Pac-12 North by some and naturally were unranked. However, the Cougars entered the poll at No. 25 after opening 5-1 and after back-to-back wins over ranked opponents Oregon and Stanford (plus last week's squeaker over Cal), Wash St is ranked No. 10. As for the Buffs, Colorado opened 5-0 to reach No. 19 in the AP poll but in a repeat of last year, have collapsed. Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 start in 2017, only to go 2-7 in Pac-12 play. The team welcomes Wash St to Boulder on a four-game slide, allowing 41 and 42 points in its last two games. Colorado blew a 31-3 lead against Oregon St in its most recent home game, before losing 41-34 in OT. Then in last week's game at Tucson, as Arizona finished with a 566-383 yardage edge in the Wildcats' 42-34 win. The Cougars control their own destiny in the Pac-12 North and could still possiibly be in the mix for a CFP berth. Meanwhile, the Buffs are 'in the tank.' I'll back the Cougars. In last year's meeting (in Pullman), Wash St won 28-0, out-gaining the Buffs 406-174. Note that Wash St enters a PERFECT 4-0 ATS on the road in 2018. Make that 5-0, here! Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +3.5 | 26-6 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 3 m | Show | |
My 9* Champs Classic play is on Michigan State (7:00 EST). While MSU lost some players to the NBA in the offseason, Tom Izzo still has plenty of talent in center Nick Ward (12.4 PPG, 7.1 boards) and point guard Cassius Winston (12.6 PPG, 6.9 assists). Last year the Spartans dominated teams on the boards by over 14 per game discrepancy. They also led the country in field goal percentage offense at 49.6. KU always has a lot of talent, but it comes in with a young group this year. Point guard Devon Dotson averaged 28.5 PPG and 5.3 assists and Providence Day School. The Jayhawks averaged 81.4 PPG last season, but the defense was nothing to write home about by allowing 71.9. I’ll point out as well that Kansas is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 vs. the Big Ten, while Michigan State has always fared well in this match-up, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight in this series. The Spartans boast the more experienced line-up and on Opening Night, I believe that will be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-18 | Yale -3 v. California | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Yale (9*) (11:00 EST). This is the 2018/19 Pac-12 China Game in Shanghai. This is the season opener for both teams. Yale comes in with plenty of veteran leadership this year and I ultimately believe that that factor will prove to be the difference maker on Opening night “across the pond.” Miye Oni averaged 15.1 points and six boards last year, while Alex Copeland averaged 11.2 PPG. Overall 95 percent of their offensive production from last year returns for the Bulldogs. Yale has a 42-14 Ivy League record over the last four years and it’s won two league titles in that time. Cal posted only eight wins last year and it’s once again in re-building mode this season for the most part as well. The Bears were one of the worst shooting teams in the country and also one of the worst at turning it over. Paris Austin, a Boise State transfer, is expected to bring some stability to the back-court. Note though that Cal is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 neutral site affairs, while Yale is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 106 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boise State (10:15 EST). Fresno State is 8-1 overall and 5-0 MWC play with a one-game lead over SDSU, who it hosts next weekend. Can anyone say “look-ahead/letdown” spot?! The Bulldogs come in off seven straight wins, most recently destroying UNLV 48-3 on the road last Saturday. Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in MWC action and it’s still in the mix as well, sitting one game back of No. 18 Utah State for the Mountain Division lead. The Broncos come in on top form as well, winners of four straight, they’ll now look to pull off the slight upset and play spoiler. The Bulldogs look strong on both sides of the ball, as they’ve given up just three TDs and 36 points in MWC play. Boist State QB Brett Rypien had 214 yards and a TD in last week’s win over BYU. So far he has 24 TD passes this year. The Broncos are also among the best in the nation defensively, with 12 fumbles recovered thus far. I’ll point out as well that Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last six after three or more consecutive SU wins, while Fresno State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after five or more SU victories. This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-18 | Arkansas v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 71-73 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Texas at 7;00 ET. Arkansas and Texas will renew their old Southwest Conference rivalry Friday in the Armed Forces Classic at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas returns FOUR of five starters from last year and has a game under its belt, a 71-59 victory against Eastern Illinois. As for Arkansas (playing its season-opener), the Razorbacks lost 79.6 percent of their scoring and 64.7 percent of their rebounding from last year. The Razorbacks lost eight players, including five of their top six scorers, from last season's 23-win NCAA Tournament team. All-SEC first team selection Daniel Gafford ( sophomore forward) averaged 11.8 & 6.2 last season is one of just three scholarship players returning. Meanwhile, PG Jalen Harris, who redshirted last season after transferring from New Mexico, is the only Arkansas guard with any Division I experience. The good news for the Razorbacks is that there are some impressive recruits coming in, including 4-star players Isaiah Joe, Ethan Henderson and Keyshawn Embery. We'll see. The Longhorns finished just 19-15 last season, after blowing a 14-point second-half lead against Nevada in the team's first NCAA contest. Texas does return four of five starters but the loss was a big one, as the 7-0 Bamba (12.9-10.5-3.7 BPG) was the sixth pick of the NBA Draft. However, Texas not only returns four starters but the Longhorns have six freshman. Its crop of freshman was ranked EIGHTH nationally by 247Sports. Both schools own quality head coaches. Arkansas' Mike Anderson has led UAB, Missouri and now Arkansas, to NCAA berths plus is one of just four current Division I coaches with 15-plus years of experience and no losing seasons. Roy Williams, Tom Izzo and Mark Few are the others. That's pretty sweet company! Texas' Shaka Smart was an impressive 163-56 (.744) at VCU, leading the Rams to the CBI championship in 2010 (his first year as a head coach) and then to the NCAA Final 4 in 2011, as an 11-seed. He's taken the Longhorns to the "Big Dance" in two of his three years at Austin but his overall record was just 50-50 entering the current season. Nobody is saying Smart needs to win in 2018-19 to keep his job but I bet plenty of Texas people are "thinking it!' Texas has much more experience plus the Longhorns have a game under their belt. The El Paso site is pretty much a home game and as noted above, the Razorbacks have a ton of rebuilding to do. Maybe James Street (or for that matter, Randy Peschel) will be in the stands? If you don't know those names, you are too damn young! Lay the points with Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-18 | Missouri v. Iowa State -8 | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Iowa State (8*) (7:00 EST). Missouri lost Michael Porter Jr. to the NBA, but the Tigers return several key players, including Jeremiah Tillmon and Kevin Puryear. Missouri got 19 points and ten boards from Mark Smith in the opener vs. Central Arkansas. Overall it was a poor shooting game though, as the team would combine to go just 3 of 18 from beyond the arc. Iowa State was just 4-14 in Big 12 play last season, but anything short of a tournament spot this year would be considered a disappointment. Iowa State opened with a 79-53 win over Alabama State, as four players would go on to score in double figures, led by Michael Jacobson with 17. So far Iowa State is averaging 111 points per 100 possessions so far this season, while allowing 93 per 100 possessions. The Tigers lost Jontay Porter to injury and I think he’ll be missed here against a Cyclones team looking to send a message. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-18 | Stanford v. NC-Wilmington +2.5 | 72-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on NC Wilmington (8*) (7:00 EST). The Cardinal were 19-16 last year and they opened this season with a 96-74 home win over Seattle on Tuesday. NC Wilmington was just 11-21 last season and it enters hungry after a 97-93 OT road loss to Campbell in its opener. Last year Stanford averaged 75.9 PPG and it conceded 74.9. KZ Okpala had 29 points in the season opening victory. Last year UNC Wilmington averaged 79.4 PPG and it conceded 83.4. Ty Taylor II had 29 points in the season opening loss including six three-pointers. I’ll point out though that Stanford is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games after scoring 95 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. I think the “hungrier” team is NC Wilmington. The Seahawks return plenty of talent and in a contest which i see coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* Showdown on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). Carolina looks poised for a letdown here after its third straight win, a satisfying 42-28 conference victory over Tampa Bay at home on Sunday. Pittsburgh will look to take advantage of his favorable non conference matchup at home and improve upon its four-game win streak, most recently a hard-fought 23-16 road victory over Baltimore on Sunday. Carolina QB Cam Newton has 1,893 passing yards with 15 TDs and four INTs. He’s also been sacked 12 times. Newton has a plethora of weapons surrounding him and his defense is above average. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger has 2,560 passing yards with 16 TDs, seven INTs and 11 sacks. Like his counterpart today, Big Ben has many weapons to utilize and his defense continues to improve each week. So where’s the advantage?! Note that Carolina is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Pittsburgh is already 2-0 ATS this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-18 | Rockets -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 80-98 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TNT Explosion on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Houston has won three straight on the road, most recently a 98-94 win over Indiana on Monday. With two whole nights off to prepare, I look for the Rockets to come out on top here. OKC most recently beat Cleveland 95-86 on the road on Wednesday, but with a return home to friendly confines, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Note that Houston does play with a bit of revenge here as well, as the Thunder took two of three in the season series last year. The Rockets are averaging 105.3 PPG and they’re allowing 110.1. Of course those numbers are skewed due to the lousy overall start. Houston has started to turn things around of late, led by James Harden is averaging 27.8 points, five boards and 8.2 assists per night. OKC is averaging 113.2 PPG and it’s allowing 111.3. Russell Westbrook is leading the way with 24.1 points, 8.3 boards and 8.9 assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Thunder are in fact just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. teams with winning road records, while Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. This is the second game of a back-to-back set for OKC and I believe it comes in “flat footed.” Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-18 | Wolves v. Lakers -5 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. Inconsistency has plagued both the T-wolves and Lakers early on. Minnesota has yet to win on the rod this season plus the team has been dealing with Jimmy Butler's "moods." Butler has been demanding a trade since the preseason and has sat out every other game since the win against the Lakers last week. He wouldn't discuss his status for Wednesday's game. LBJ and the Lakers are also still trying to find their groove and they trailed 41-17 after the first quarter on Sunday en route to losing 121-107 to the Raptors in a contest in which Toronto was missing star forward Kawhi Leonard (not a good sign). However, the bottom line is this. LA is a poor defensive team but the Lakers can score (118.9 PPG and 49.4 FG percentage both rank 3rd in the NBA) and the T-wolves are allowing 118.5 PPG in going 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS away from Target Center so far. 10* on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-18 | 76ers v. Pacers -2.5 | 100-94 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 8:05 ET. Yes, the 6-5 Philadelphia 76ers will eventually win on the road, but when? They've been unable to do so yet (0-5 SU & ATS) plus with FOUR of their five losses away from home coming by at least 15 points, they've barely been competitive. Sunday's dreadful 122-97 loss at Brooklyn featured an NBA-high 28 turnovers! The 7-4 Indiana Pacers are off a 98-94 home loss to the Rockets, a defeat which ended a run of three straight wins. Victor Oladipo scored 28 points in the defeat to record his NBA-leading 10th straight game with at least 20 points (he's averaging 23.0 PPG). The Pacers are allowing just 99.4 PPG at home, while the 76ers are giving up a whopping 122.4 PPG on the road. Noting that Indiana has won EIGHT straight meetings at home against Philadelphia makes the Pacers a 9* play. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC ATTACK on Miami Ohio (7:00 EST). Ohio has won four straight and I think it’s going to suffer a letdown here against the hungry RedHawks, who enter having lost two in a row. The Bobcats most recently enter off a 52-14 win over Ball State and a 59-14 road victory over WMU as a three-point underdog. AJ Ouellette and Maleek Irons combined for 188 yards rushing and three TDs in last week’s victory. And while Miami Ohio has had to endure injuries this year, it’s not going down without a fight today as it still looks to become eligible. While the defense struggled in last week’s loss to the high-powered Bulls, the offense was firing on all cylinders once again and I expect the unit to bring the same intensity in this important/crucial game as well. I’ll point out as well that the RedHawks are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 following a conference game (including 4-0 ATS this year) and 12-6 ATS in their last 18 as an underdog, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. Grab the points and expect a “nail-biter.” Play on Miami Ohio. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-18 | Duke +2 v. Kentucky | 118-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My 9* Champs Classic play is on Duke (9:30 EST). Duke posted a 29-8 record last year and a 13-5 record in ACC action, while the Wildcats went 26-11 with a 10-8 record in SEC action. Both teams feature plenty of new faces, but I think the depth and skill that Duke brings to the table will be just too much for the Wildcats to hang with on Opening Night. Duke lost its top five scorers from last year, but it recruited Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, who are considered two of the best talents in the country. It also features 6 foot 8 forward Cam Reddish and leading scorer Marquez Bolden also returns. Last year the Blue Devils averaged 84.4 PPG and allowed 69.6. Kentucky comes into the new season ranked No. 2. The Wildcats lost many big names to the NBA over the offseason, but they still feature plenty of talent as well in Quade Gren and PJ Washington. Last year the Wildcats averaged 76.8 PPG and allowed 70.2. That was ranked 116th overall. I’ll point out as well that the Blue Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site affairs. Kentucky returns just 31.5 percent of its scoring from last year and on Opening Night, I think the Blue Devils will take advantage. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-18 | Florida +4 v. Florida State | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* CBB TIP OFF OPENER is on Florida (9:00 EST). Florida has won 27 straight season openers but it’ll have its hands full here. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for the Gators after the Seminoles embarrassed them 83-66 in Gainesville last year. Three starters return for the Gators though, a team which averaged 75.8 PPG. KeVaughn Allen averaged 11.0 points last year. FSU is predicted to finish seventh in the difficult 15-team ACC this year. The Seminoles also return three starters. One of those starters though, Phil Cofer, won’t be playing tonight because of a foot injury. Cofer averaged 12.8 points and 5.1 boards last year. This one is very evenly matched, but I think the absence of Cofer is a significant one for the Seminoles. The Gators play with revenge and I think they’ll keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Celtics (9:05 EST). Boston will look to be the first team in the league to knock off the Nuggets at home. Denver looks primed for a letdown in my opinion after four straight victories and facing this tough nosed defensive visiting side. The Nuggets already have some big wins under their belts, including over the Warriors, Pelicans and Jazz, but this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot in my estimation facing the non-conference opponent tonight (despite it being the Celtics). Nikola Jokic had just single digits scoring in the win over the Jazz, but he’d post ten boards and 16 assists as well. Boston comes in in a foul mood after a last second-three pointer cost them against the Pacers most recently. Kyrie Irving had 18 points, six boards and three assists in the setback. I’ll point out though that the road team is 4-1-1 ATS the last six in this series, while the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in the series. Also note that Boston is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* Monday Night Magic on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Dallas made a move last week to acquire WR Amari Cooper from the Raiders and while the move may prove to pay dividends, both in the short and long-term, I expect the desperate Titans to pull out all the stops today and at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Both teams come out of their bye weeks, so each has had the extra time off to prepare, making that angle a “wash.” Both teams have struggled to put points on the board this season, getting inconsistent play from their star QB’s. I’m going to call this area a “wash” as well. Special teams and defensive play is almost entirely on par as well in my opinion. Dallas is already 2.5 games behind the Redskins, but the Titans are equally as desperate and hungry for a victory here as well. Note that Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival and only 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-18 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 238 | Top | 116-122 | Push | 0 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Goin Under Total is the under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 EST). The Pelicans started off strong, but they’ve since regressed. The Thunder were a mess to open the campaign, but they’ve been firing on all cylinders of late. Two teams moving in opposite direction collide and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The Thunder have won four straight, most recently a 134-111 road win in Washington on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? New Orleans on the other hand is coming off five straight losses, most recently a 109-95 setback at San Antonio. Pelicans’ star Anthony Davis has recently commented about the pressure of having to play at such a high level every night to even give his team a chance to succeed. Davis had 17 points, eight boards, three assists and five blocks in the loss to the Spurs. OKC has definitely turned things around of late, but note that during its recent win skein it has in fact beaten just one opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook had 23 points, three boards and 12 assists in the win over Washington. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a divisional contest, while OKC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Packers v. Patriots -6.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST). With a chance to smash the Packers out of contention further, I think Tom Brady will get the better of Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night. Green Bay comes in off a disheartening setback to the Rams, covering the spread, but ultimately coming up short on the SU outright upset. The Pats meanwhile beat the Chiefs at home before then crushing the Bills on the road last Monday. Rodgers was held to just 286 passing yards and one TD last week. The Packers looked pretty good defensively, but having to perform at such a high level on back to back weeks on the road against such elite level offenses is going to be just too much for Green Bay’s unit to handle in my opinion. The Pats’ defense looked awesome last week, holding the Bills out of the end zone. Brady continues to dominate and he’s going to have his way with this “gassed” Packers secondary in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New England is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 following an ATS win and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 against teams with losing records, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Rodgers and the Packers are in the wrong place at the wrong time in trying to hope for a bounce back. Brady is playing like a man on a mission right now and I think he can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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