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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Suns +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Phoenix Suns (8:05 EST). What do you base your selections on? As a professional handicapper I base my picks on many different things. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Suns and it’s one I’m primarily basing this particular selection. The Grizzlies are 5-2 overall and they come in having won three straight. But with a date at Golden State tomorrow night, Memphis is expected to rest people tonight and clearly it’s not going to be able to help itself in getting caught “looking ahead” to that much more high profile contest. The Suns clearly don’t have that luxury though, as they come in having lost seven straight. They also play with revenge after falling to Memphis earlier in the season. Note that Memphis is just 10-19 ATS in its last 29 on the road and only 6-8 ATS In its last 14 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Phoenix is 31-20 ATS in its last 51 after three or more consecutive SU losses. It’s do or die, now or never for Phoenix. Expect an outright, but grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 60 | Top | 35-45 | Loss | -109 | 148 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Rams/Saints (4:25 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Clearly high-flying, explosive offenses would be right up at the top. LA is 8-0 and New Orleans is 6-1. Both teams have been the “cream of the crop” this season, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” on Sunday afternoon. It’s hard to win on the road consistently in the NFL, but so far the Rams are a perfect 4-0 away from friendly confines. QB Jared Goff has 2,425 passing yards and a 17/5 TD/INT. The ground game has been extremely strong as well, averaging 153.1 yards per game, with Todd Gurley leading the charge with 800 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Look for the dynamic back to play a pivotal role in the Rams offense today (as he does each week.) Aaron Donald has been a standout defensively with ten sacks. The Saints’ have won six straight QB Drew Brees has 1,990 yards and a sharp 14/1 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 108 yards per game, with Alvin Kamara leading the way with 408 yards and seven TDs. Note that LA has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in three of four on the road already this season, while New Orleans has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU/ATS victories and in five of its last six against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 51 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 30 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Lions/Vikes 8* (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory. Both teams enter off losses. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Detroit lost 28-14 at to Seattle, while Minnesota fell 30-20 at home to the Saints. Detroit is averaging 24.4 PPG and it’s allowing 26.6. Clearly that’s not going to get the job done going forward. QB Matt Stafford had 310 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s loss, but he also had a costly INT and a fumble. Note that the Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles this week. The Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. QB Kirk Cousins has a 16/4 TD/INT. Despite allowing 30 points to the Saints last week, the Vikes’ strength still remains on the defensive side of the ball. I’ll point out that Detroit has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 13 against the division and in 7 of its last ten as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns +9 | 37-21 | Loss | -115 | 144 h 30 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns 8* (1:00 EST). Kansas City has been nearly unstoppable this season, but I think the Chiefs will get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today. KC comes in off a 30-23 home win over Detroit, while Cleveland lost 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. The Chiefs are averaging a whopping 36.2 PPG, but they’re allowing 25.6. Patrick Mahomes has a 26/6 TD/INT thus far. The Browns are averaging 21.1 PPG and they’re conceding 26.2. QB Baker Mayfield has 1,471 passing yards and a positive 8/6 TD/INT. No. 1 receiver Jarvis Landry has 18 catches over his last two games. Note though that KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Cleveland is already 3-1 ATS at home this year. The Browns have been competitive in front of the home town crowd this season and I expect that trend to carry over here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -133 | 144 h 29 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets 10* (1:00 EST). These are two terrible teams with plenty of issues. As wild as he’s been at times, I still think that the Jets’ Sam Darnold is a better pivot the Dolphins’ back up QB Brock Osweiler. Darnold lost 24-10 to the Bears last Sunday, going for 154 yards and a TD with no picks. New York’s strength though is on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding Chicago to just 259.8 yards through the air. Osweiler and the home side come in off a terrible 42-23 loss at Houston last Thursday. Osweiler had 241 yards passing and an INT. The offense ranks 27th overall. I’ll point out that New York is a sharp 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after two or more consecutive losses and 6-4 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Miami is 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against clubs with losing records. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | California +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 130 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on California (10:45 EST). After four straight wins, I think that WSU comes in a big complacent vs. its lowly opponent, enough of a letdown anyways to let the hungry visitors sneak in through the back door down the stretch. WSU had a one-half game lead over Washington and it’ll be difficult not to get caught “looking ahead” to The Apple Cup. Cal’s on the edge of eligibility as well and it’ll be eager to pull off the upset. The Golden Bears haven’t been to a bowl game since losing to Air Force in the 2015 Armed Forces Bowl. But the Golden Bears are poised for a return after last week’s 12-10 upset of then No. 12 Washington last Saturday. QB Chase Garbers returned two games ago and since then he’s gone 33 of 49 for 387 yards, three TDs and zero INTs. It won’t be easy obviously facing Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense, but after a slim 41-38 win at Stanford last Saturday, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot Not surprisingly, Cougars’ QB Gardner Minshew leads the nation in passing yards and is fifth in TD passes. I’ll point out though that Washington State is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Cal is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 208 | Top | 88-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the Jazz/Nuggets over (9:05 EST). Utah enters off a listless 110-100 home loss to Memphis. Donovan Mitchell sat that one out and the Jazz looked poor on both ends of the floor. The high-flying Nuggets will look to take advantage and to get out and push the pace of this one from strait to finish. Denver enters off a 110-91 road victory over Cleveland. Utah though is averaging 114.3 PPG, while allowing 109.3. The Jazz have been one of the best defensive clubs in the league the last few years, but in the early going so far this season that hasn’t been the case. Note though that the over is 4-1 in Utah’s five road games. Denver is averaging 112.5 PPG and it’s allowing 103.6. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points, ten boards and 6.6 assists. I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 17 after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Stanford v. Washington -9 | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Washington (9:00 EST). Sanford comes in off a 41-38 home loss to WSU, while Washington fell 12-10 at Cal. Note that this is a “revenge” game for Washington after Stanford posted the 30-22 home win over the Huskies last year. Stanford comes in averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 23.2. QB KJ Costello had 323 passing yards and four TDs but it still wasn’t enough last week. RB Bryce Love has been dealing with an ankle injury all year and he had just 71 rushing yards. Washington is averaging 26.6 PPG and it’s conceding just 15.2. That’s eighth overall in the country. QB Jake Browning was benched and then put back in the game last week, he’d finish with 148 yards, a TD and an INT. Overall he has 2,049 passing yards and a 12/8 TD/INT. The Huskies have given up just 25 points total the last weeks though and I think the home side’s defensive unit will be the difference maker again here today as well. Additionally note that Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with winning road records, while Stanford is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against games with winning records. The Cardinal have lost three of their last four and I think they stumble again here in this difficult venue. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14 | 29-0 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on LSU (8:00 EST). I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this big game. It’s No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 LSU from Tiger Stadium on Saturday night and in my opinion, this one’s going to end much closer than what the oddsmakers would like us to believe. Alabama enters off a 58-21 win over Tennessee, while LSU pulled away for a convincing 19-3 victory over Mississippi State. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Alabama has won seven straight in the series, including a 24-10 home win last November. The Crimson Tide are averaging 54.1 PPG and they’re conceding 15.9. QB Tua Tagovailoa had four TD passes last week and he so far has an amazing 25/0 TD/INT ratio. LSU is averaging 30.4 PPG, but it’s conceding just 15.1. LSU relies primarily on its strong run game to generate offense. Note though that LSU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 against the conference, while Alabama is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five when allowing 275 total yards or less in its previous game. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m expecting a competitive battle until the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Syracuse -4 v. Wake Forest | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 54 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Syracuse (12:00 EST). The Orange come in off a 51-41 home win over NC State and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Wake Forest enters off a 56-35 destruction of Louisville, but I believe it’ll have its hands full against this surging Syracuse offense. Note as well that this is a revenge game for the Orange after Wake Forest recorded the 64-43 road victory last year. Syracuse comes in averaging 43.6 PPG and conceding 28.6. QB Eric Dungey had 411 yards and three TDs last week. So far he has 1,844 yards and a strong 13/4 TD/INT. Wake Forest gave up 532 total yards and 35 points to a weak Cardinals offend last week. So far the Demon Deacons are averaging 33.4 PPG and conceding 36.8. RB Matt Colburn had 243 yards and three TDs last week. Note though that the Demon Deacons are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home and 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, wile Syracuse is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. After scoring 51 points against an elite Wolfpack offense, I have a hard time seeing the Demon Deacons slowing down this juggernaut. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-18 | Louisville v. Clemson UNDER 60 | Top | 16-77 | Loss | -115 | 114 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Louisville/Clemson (12:00 EST). Louisville is just 2-6. In the loss to Wake Forest most recently QB Jawon Pass had 358 yards and a TD. Clemson is 8-0. Most recently the Tigers destroyed FSU, as QB Trevor Lawrence had 314 yards and four TD’s. The Cardinals have had a difficult schedule so far, but giving up 56 points to the Demon Deacons clearly can’t be sitting well with the team. Clemson has to be careful though, as it will have to avoid “looking past” its lowly opponent today to its game against Boston College. After that though it’s clear sailing for the Tigers, with games against Duke and South Carolina to finish the season. A perfect campaign is definitely plausible for Clemson, but “staying in the moment” is clearly paramount. At two wins, Louisville won’t be invited to a bowl game this year, but it’ll be playing for pride none-the-less this afternoon. Note that the Cards have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Clemson has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite of 31 points or more and in five of its last six home games where the total is between 56.6 and 63. I’m banking on more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-18 | Thunder v. Wizards -3 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The Oklahoma City Thunder got off to a slow start, but they go into Charlotte on a two game win streak on Thursday night. The Thunder come to the Nation’s capital “dog tired” here to face a Wizards team which comes in desperate after a 1-6 start, including going 0-2 at home. But a favorable matchup here against a “flat-footed” Thunder side, combined with a very “winnable” game against the Knicks on Sunday could have the Wizards completely turned around by the end of the weekend. It’s essentially a “do or die” game for the Wizards in my estimation and I expect the home side to “answer the call.” I’ll point out as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine in the second game of a back to back in which its playing on the road, while Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a four games or more unbeaten streak. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Virginia | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 103 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Pittsburgh (7:30 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a shootout victory over Duke and I look for the Panthers to carry that offensive momentum over here against Virginia, which comes in contented off three straight victories. The Panthers most recently pulled away for a 54-45 win over the Blue Devils. V’Lique Carter had 137 yards rushing and two TD’s, while Qadree Ollison had 149 yards and a TD as well. The Cavs enter off the 31-21 victory over UNC, but this is s spot in which Virginia has done terribly in for bettors over the years, going just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after playing a conference game. Note that the Cavs are also just 3-4 ATS in their last seven off a win against a conference rival. Pittsburgh on the other hand has excelled in this spot by going 10-3 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I think it goes right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-18 | Clippers v. Magic UNDER 217 | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Down Under Total is the under Clippers/Magic (7:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. However, I think the conditions are right for more of a defensive affair this evening. The Clippers enter off a high-scoring 122-113 loss in Philadelphia just last night and I expect the team to come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back. The Magic will look to take advantage. Note that Orlando has lost seven straight in this series. The Magic come in having lost three straight overall and they’ll be desperate to reverse their fortunes with a solid defensive effort in my opinion. Note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 road games in the second game of a back to back in which it gave up more than 120 points and lost in the first. Additionally note that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 24 after a three games or more SU/ATS losing streak. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -121 | 81 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Oakland Raiders (8:20 EST). The Raiders are in tough as they come in off a third straight loss in a 42-28 setback to Indianapolis, while the 49ers fell 18-15 on the road in Arizona this past weekend. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is the difference maker for me though in this one. Carr is the best player on the field and he so far has 2,027 passing yards and a 10/8 TD:INT. RB Marshawn Lynch is out for the season, which is likely good thing. Now it’s just “next man up.” Doug Martin so far has 40 carries and 171 yards. The 49ers are 1-7 and have nothing to play. The Raiders are essentially playing for pride as well today, but as stated off the top, I think Carr has a major advantage over 49ers’ QB CJ Beathard, who has 1,252 yards with eight TD’s and seven INT’s. Last week the 49ers put up just 267 yards of offense, while allowing 20 first downs. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is still 12-7 ATS in its last 19 when the line in the contest is between +3 and -3, while San Francisco is a horrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS this year. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conf. Showdown is on the Boston Celtics (8:05 EST). The Bucks are 7-0, most recently coming in off a very satisfying 124-109 home win over Toronto. The Celtics are 5-2 and they enter off a 108-105 home win over Detroit. Milwaukee is averaging 120 PPG and it’s conceding 104.1. Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play against the Raptors, but he’s been given the green light to go here. So far Anteokounmpo has averaged 25 points and 14.2 boards per game. Boston is averaging 102.4 PPG, while conceding an NBA-best 97.6. Kyrie Irving had his best game of the season last time out, finishing with 31 points. Note that Boston is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 at home and 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams with winning road records, while Milwaukee is still just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. All good things have to come to an end. I expect the Celtics’ league leading defense to finally throw a “monkey wrench” into the Bucks’ hot offensive start. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-18 | Ohio v. Western Michigan -2 | Top | 59-14 | Loss | -104 | 80 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET. WMU's 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo ended the Broncos' six-game winning streak and dropped them one game back of Northern Illinois in the race for the MAC's West title. However, WMU still controls its own destiny, Win here at home vs Ohio plus Nov 13 at Ball St (currently a 3-6 team) and the Broncos will host Northern Illinois on Nov 20 with the winner qualifying for the MAC championship game. First things first, let's talk Ohio U. The Bobacats are 5-3, including 3-1 in the MAC East, one game back of 4-0 Buffalo. However, the Bobcats have back-to-back road games here at WMU and then against the school's long-time rival, Miami-Ohio. After that, it's a home date with Buffalo, which is arguably the MAC's best team (7-1 overall). Note that Ohio is just 1-3 away from home, allowing an average of 33.3 PPG in its three losses, with its lone win coming 27-26 at Kent (go-ahead score came with about 1 1/2 minutes left), which is just 1-7 overall (0-4 in MAC play). I’ll point out that Ohio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while WMU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 after posting more than 280 passing yards in its previous game. Bottom line is that oddsmaker' overreacted to WMU's shocking 51-24 home loss last week to Toledo and bettors have piled on. Almost ALL the money is on Ohio but I expect a comfortable Western Michigan win. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-18 | Mavs v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. To put it mildly, the "LBJ era" is off to a slow start in the City of Angels. The Lakers are still learning how to play with their new superstar and they'd really like to figure out how to win the close games. 2-5 Los Angeles lost its third game by four points or less Monday night at the Minnesota Timberwolves and all five losses have come by single digits. LA will host the 2-5 Mavericks at Staples Center, who also desperate for a win after dropping their past four games (all by single digits!. Dallas did push the San Antonio Spurs to overtime Monday before losing 113-108, but also committed a season-worst 23 turnovers. Dallas 'limps' in 0-4 away from home, averaging just 104.8 PPG. Sure, the Lakers are only 1-2 at home but they are averaging 126.0 PPG at Staples. With "all hands on deck" ( Lakers are back to full strength after starting SF Brandon Ingram completed a four-game suspension & backup PG Rajon Rondo a three-game ban for their roles in a fight with the Houston Rockets on Oct, 20), look for a 15-point win! From a trend based stand point, note that LA is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games against teams with road winning percentages under .400, while Dallas is just 2-6 ATS In its last eight against clubs with losing records. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-18 | Pistons +2.5 v. Nets | 119-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. Brooklyn comes in dejected here after falling 115-96 against the Knicks on Monday. It was the Nets third straight loss. Last night the Pistons fell 108-105 in Boston and while I wouldn’t normally play on a team in the second game of a back-to-back, in this case I’m making an exception. We’re only two weeks into the season, so fatigue is simply not going to be a factor at this point of the season for this World class athletes. In fact, the extra playing time is beneficial in my opinion to continue work things out on both ends of the floor. If recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be loving its chances today as well, as it’s won three straight in this series, including a 103-100 victory in the first meeting at home on October 17th. The public is quick to back the Nets here in my opinion. They’ve lost three straight and play with revenge, but quite simply this is a horrible match-up for them. The Pistons are averaging 110.6 PPG and they’re allowing 112. The Nets are averaging 106.6 PPG and they’re conceding 111.1. Brooklyn is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 at home, while Detroit is 6-2 ATS in its last eight on the road and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Summing up. Beating the Nets back on Oct 17 began Detroit's first 4-0 start since the 2008-09 season. The rematch comes with the Pistons off consecutive losses but quarter c both have come against the Celtics (the East's best team?). Drummond (18.2 & 15.2 on the year) helped the Pistons open the season with a 103-100 win by getting 24 points and 20 rebounds against the Nets. It was his fifth game with at least 20 rebounds against the Nets and his second 20-20 game against Brooklyn The Nets enter on a three-game slide and during that streak, Brooklyn is getting out-rebounded 146-123 and overall, is among the league's worst teams in rebounding at 43.0 per game (24th). The Pistons nearly overcame a 14-point deficit last night in Boston but won't need any fourth comebacks here, as they top the Nets for the SIXTH time in the last seven meetings. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). Portland finally stumbled after a great start, falling 120-111 in Miami on Saturday and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well with a Indiana team coming off a 119-107 road win over the Cavs on the weekend. Note as well as this does in fact set up as a “double revenge” scenario for the Pacers after the Blazers took both meetings last year. Overall Portland has averaged 122.4 PPG and allowed 117.2. Damian Lillard is averaging 33.8 points and 6.6 assists per game. The Pacers are averaging 111.7 PPG and they’re conceding just 102.8. Victor Oladipo is leading the nightly charge with 21.8 points, 5.3 boards and 1.5 steals per game. Additionally note that Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and only 1-4 ATS in it last five when playing on one days rest. Indiana has looked very strong at home in the early going and I expect that trend to continue here. Lay the points, Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings | 30-20 | Loss | -117 | 150 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Night Football Magic is on the Minnesota Vikings (8:20 EST). New Orleans enters off a tough 24-23 road win over Baltimore and I think it’ll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue and against one of the league’s other great defensive units. Minnesota is back on track after a shaky start to the campaign, most recently destroying the Jets 37-17 on the road last weekend. These teams met in the playoffs last year and the Vikes won 29-24. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as well. New Orleans has averaged 42.0 PPG in the early going, but the unit struggled for most of last week in Baltimore. And it’s not going to get any easier in Minnesota. The Saints have one of the best run defenses in the league, but they’re ranked 28th against the pass, which doesn’t bode well facing Kirk Cousins and a Vikes offense which has suddenly “found” itself. Minnesota is ranked 13th in total offense and last week it gave up just 263 total yards to Sam Darnold and the Jets. Note as well that the Vikes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with winning road records. I think Drew Brees and the Saints finally have a letdown. Play on the Vikings. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET. Boston's 24-inning offensive slumber threatened to reset the World Series and turn it into a best-of-three affair, but the Red Sox found life again, right after Yasiel Puig's three-run HR in the sixth put the Dodgers up 4-0. Boston's surge began with pinch-hitter Mitch Moreland's three-run HR in the seventh, followed by Steve Pearce's game-tying HR in the eighth inning. Pearce added a three-run double in Boston's five-run ninth, as the Red Sox emphatically rallied for a 9-6 victory on Saturday. Boston now owns a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven matchup. LA's normally reliable bullpen imploded, as six relievers allowed eight runs (plus an inherited runner) in just 2 2/3 innings, putting their championship hopes (dreams?) on 'life support.' Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts told reporters, “We’re in a situation where it’s do or die. Now we have to bow are necks and win a game. It's one at a time. … Our guys are not done. We’ve got our best going (Sunday).” The conventional wisdom immediately following the Red Sox's comeback win in Game 4 was that lefty ace Chris Sale would remain on schedule and start the potential clincher Game 5 on Sunday night. However, Boston manager Alex Cora made the surprise announcement during his postgame remarks that David Price would start Game 5 of the World Series. The decision to move away from Sale was based on the fact that he has struggled with velocity loss and faltering command in recent start, and of course. he dealt with shoulder issues throughout the latter half of the season. Circling back to Cora's presser before Game 4, he was asked about Sale's and Price's status for Saturday night. "Not Chris," he said. "Not Chris." If that sounds emphatic, that's because it was. This could be a simple matter of advance planning being in place, or it could be a hint that Sale is, at the very least, in need of more time off. Whatever ails Sale is obviously not grave enough to merit a roster move, at least yet, but his unavailability out of the pen on three days' rest in Game 4 and then getting bumped from his scheduled Game 5 start run some red flags up the pole. So on to the Game 5 starters, David Price of Boston and Clayton Kershaw of LA. Price's postseason numbers have haunted him his entire career but all of a sudden, he's given his fans hope. Price has posted back-to-back strong six-inning outings in Game 5 of the ALCS (Bostons won 4-1 and clinched the pennant) and again in Game 2 of the World Series (4-2 Red Sox win). He's struck out 14 in those 12 innings, allowing just two ERs (1.26 ERA). Price also got two outs in relief during Friday’s Game 3 (threw 13 pitches) and was up in the bullpen Saturday, Kershaw's postseason woes have always been "front and center," as the three-time Cy Young winner is an underachieving 9-9 with a 4.28 ERA in 29 appearances (23 starts). So why take LA? For one, I'm not even close to being sold on Price and while I'm a HUGE Kershaw detractor as well, this is the perfect situation for Clayton to "come up big," in what figures to almost surely be a Boston win in the series. Kershaw can claim "he came through witb LA facing elimination" but in the end, it figures to be a "nothing burger." In support of Kershaw I will note that he has registered two brilliant performances in the postseason at home. Kershaw has given up one just run on only five hits and two walks with 12 strikeouts in 15 innings at Dodger Stadium (0.60 ERA) during the playoffs. Sandy Koufax he's NOT but in this situation, LA with Kershaw is the play! Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 143 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Jets/Bears (1:00 EST). The 3-4 Jets are at Soldier Field to take on the 3-3 Bears on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Last week the Jets lost to the Vikes and rookie QB Sam Darnold had 206 yards, one TD and three INTs, while Isaiah Crowell managed only 29 yards. Last weekend the Bears fell to the Pats in a shootout, as QB Mitch Trubisky had 333 yards, two TDs and two INTs. These two normally offensively challenged teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this year, including last weekend, which makes it important to note that the Jets have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shoot-out.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Seahawks v. Lions -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). A couple of hungry 3-3 teams collide on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular contest. I think Seattle stumbles here in this difficult road venue after winning three of its last four. QB Russell Wilson has 1,308 passing yards and a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the ground game is averaging 127.8 YPG, with Chris Carson leading the way with 352 yards and a TD. Overall the Hawks are allowing 19.5 PPG. Detroit comes in having won two in a row and five of their last seven at home. QB Matt Stafford has 1,602 passing yards and a 12/5 TD/INT. Note that Stafford has two or more TD passes in seven of his last nine games. The ground game has been strong for the Lions as well with an average of 122.3 YPG. Overall Detroit is giving up 26.3 PP, but note that the Seahawks are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following an ATS victory. Detroit will look to take advantage, note that it’s already 4-1 ATS in its last fie at home (note as well that the home team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.) I think the extra rest off leads to rust for the visitors and I look for the Lions to carry over their recent momentum. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Ravens v. Panthers +2 | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 124 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). After a big come from behind win over the Eagles on the road last weekend, I think the Panthers carry that momentum over here in this non-conference matchup at home against the Ravens, who enter off a loss to the Saints. Baltimore’s defense has been superb this year, allowing only 14.4 PPG, but I think it comes in “gassed” and deflated this week after the late collapse last week against New Orleans. QB Joe Flacco continues to be consistently inconsistent and I don’t see that trend changing this week either in what is a very difficult road venue. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 269 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s come from behind victory for the ages. Newton was unbelievable, but so too was the Panthers’ defense when it needed to be down the stretch. Note that Carolina is 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Baltimore is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games. For all the reasons listed above play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 140 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (9:30 AM EST). A “trip across the pond” is just what the doctor ordered for the Jags to get back on track in my opinion, while I believe this trip will have a detrimental effect on the struggling defending champions. Philadelphia comes in off a deflating 21-17 home loss to Carolina and I believe it’s ripe for the picking here. Jacksonville enters off a second straight loss in a 20-7 setback to Houston in its latest action. Philadelphia has dropped three of its last four and it’s averaging 22 PPG and conceding 19.7. QB Carson Wentz has been fantastic in his time on the field with a 10/1 TD/INT over five games. Jacksonville got off to a great start in Week 1 over the Patriots, but overall it’s averaging only 16.6 PPG. The defense has been a strength of the Jags, conceding only 20.9 PPG. The Jags have the No. 1 pass defense in the league, which doesn’t bode well for Wentz. Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Jacksonville is 9-3 ATS as an underdog in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 127 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Oklahoma State (8:00 EST). While I obviously believe the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Texas held on for a 23-17 road win over Baylor last time out and I think the Longhorns finally have a letdown here in this difficult venue and after five straight victories. QB Sam Ehlinger so far has 1,534 yards passing with an 11/2 TD/INT, while completing 65.7 percent of his passes, while RB Keontay Ingram so far has 403 yards rushing. Overall Texas is averaging 30.7 PPG. Oklahoma State is the “hungrier” team here no doubt after losing three of its last four, most recently a 31-12 setback to K-State. Cowboys’ QB Taylor Cornelius though is a difference maker, as he already has 2,009 passing yards and a decent 16/8 TD/INT. Overall OKS is averaging 493 total yards of offense per game, along with 39.4 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite, while Oklahoma State is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. As stated off the top,while I do in fact believe the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Oklahoma State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-18 | Boise State v. Air Force +10 | 48-38 | Push | 0 | 125 h 27 m | Show | |
My 9* Under The Radar Rout is on Air Force (7:00 EST). I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely think that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers would like us to believe. Boise State comes in complacent after back-to-back victories, while Air Force comes in having gone 2-1 in its last three, most recently holding on for a win over UNLV. BSU QB Brett Rypien is still 0-2 in his last two trips to Falcon Stadium, including a 27-20 setback in November 2016. The Air Force offense is being overlooked here in my opinion. Its still ranked just 106th in the nation, but last week QB Isaiah Sanders had four TD’s and the offense rolled up 572 yards. Sanders had 217 yards passing with a TD, along with 173 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. I’ll point out as well that Boise State is just 3-5 ATS in it last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 after two or more SU victories, while Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-18 | Kentucky v. Missouri -6.5 | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Unranked vs Ranked Money-Maker is on Missouri at 4:00 ET. It's been a great start to the season for Kentucky, Mark Stoops' sixth year at Lexington. His teams went 12-24 (4-20 in the SEC) in his first three but he led the Wildcats to bowl games in each of the last two (Kentucky lost both bowls, finishing 7-6 each season). So, this year's 6-1 start (4-1 in the SEC!), is quite notable, as is the school's AP ranking of No. 12. Kentucky entered the top-25 back on Sep 23, for the first time since the 2007 season. Kentucky is allowing 12.8 PPG (second-best among all FBS schools) but the offense is a concern, as the Wildcats have gained just 178 yards (in a 20-14 OT loss at A&M) and 298 yards (in a 14-7 home win over Vandy) over the last two weeks Meanwhile, Missouri snapped a four-game slide with last week's 65-33 win over Memphis. The Tigers had opened the season 3-0 and while they are just 4-3 overall, note that the team is averaging an impressive 49.0 PPG in its wins. Sure, Kentucky's D presents a formidable challenge but Barry Odom's team owns an outstanding offense (501.1 YPG & 38.6 PPG) plus has a great chance for an eight-win season with a victory here. Florida is up next but the Tigers finish with games against Vandy, Tennessee and Arkanasas. Those three schools are-currently 8-15 overall, including 1-11 in SEC play. However, first things first. Missouri enters this contest on an 11-4 ATS run in its last 15 regular season games, including 4-0 ATS at home here in 2018. There's a reason the 4-3 team is favored over the 6-1 team, ranked No. 12 in the nation. Lay it with Missouri. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-18 | Georgia -7 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on Georgia (3:30 EST). A couple of 6-1 teams collide from EverBank Field in Jacksonville Florida on Saturday afternoon. The Gators have won five in a row and they moved to 4-1 in conference play after a 37-27 victory over Vanderbilt. QB Feleipe Franks has 1,406 yards with 15 TDs and five INTs, while only completing 56.6 percent of his passes. Overall Florida is averaging 34.4 PPG. The Bulldogs come in off their first loss of the year, a 36-16 setback to LSU. Georgia though has had its bye week to filter and process the loss and I think the extra time off will prove to be very beneficial for the Bulldogs. With their first loss out of the way and with a full week to process and refocus, it could in fact be the best thing that could have happened for Georgia this season. So far QB Jake Fromm has 1,409 yards passing with a 13/4 TD/INT. Overall the Bulldogs are averaging 39 PPG. I’ll point out though that Florida is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 2-3 ATS in its last five games played on a neutral field, while Georgia is 5-3 ATS in it slast eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games played on a neutral field. For all the reasons listed above, play on Georgia. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-18 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +6 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* EYE-OPENER is on Northwestern (12:00 EST). Northwestern won’t be going down without a fight today. The Wildcats come on on a three game win steak, most recently taking care of business in what could have been a trap game against lowly Rutgers last week. Wisconsin comes in off a 49-20 beatdown of Illinois. Northwestern’s defense will keep it in this one, it comes in conceding just 24.6 PPG. QB Clayton Thorson has been good as well with 1,900 passing yards and nine TDs to go along with another two rushing TDs. He does have seven INT’s and overall the offense is averaging just 24.3 PPG. Wisconsin is allowing 20.0 PPG and it’s averaging 33.0. RB Jon Taylor has 1,109 yards rushing with eight TDs. But note that the Badgers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six as a favorite, while Northwestern is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog. I think Northwestern takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the LA Dodgers at 8:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox have won the first two games of the World Series at home in impressive fashion (8-4 & 4-2) and are now 9-2 in the postseason, after winning a MLB-high 108 games during the regular season. Note that the Dodgers won "just" 92 games during the regular season (played 163), 16 games fewer than Boston. The Dodgers return home (for three games?) with a 7-6 postseason record, while batting only .212 as a team and averaging just 3.77 RPG. Game 3's pitching matchup will feature Boston vet Rick Porcello and LA rookie Walker Buehler. Porcello's made four postseason appearances in 2018, including two starts. Porcello allowed one run in a total of 6 2/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances (just one start) but was roughed up in his ALCS Game 4 start at Houston on Oct. 17, surrendering four runs on seven hits (including two HRs) in just four innings (Red Sox would win, 8-6). Porcello owns just one postseason win, as he's 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA in 16 appearances (six starts). Buehler finished the regular season strong (allowed just 13 ERs over his final 12 starts) but Buehler stumbled in his first two postseason starts, allowing nine ERs in 12 innings for a 6.75 ERA. However, he stepped up in Game 7 of the NLCS and struck out seven while allowing one run over 4 2/3 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, as LA clinched the series with a 5-1 win. LA has to like its chances with Buehler here, as he held hitters to a .193 batting average during the regular season while striking out 151 in 137 1/3 innings (even in a so-so postseason, he has 22 Ks in 16 2/3 innings). What's more, Buehler posted a 1.93 ERA in 13 games (12 starts) at Dodger Stadium during the regular season, despite allowing five runs in a one-run stint in that lone relief appearance against the Cubs back on June 28. Boston's 5-0 this postseason on the road and the team's timely hitting (36 of the team's 68 runs have come with two outs), makes them a 'beast' but this is LA's "game to win." Porcello is VERY vulnerable (see above for his postseason record!) and the Dodgers intend to put up as much resistance as possible in Game 3 with their left-handed power lineup going against the right-hander. After facing lefties Sale and Price, the change will mean starts for Dodgers lefty power hitters like Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger. As Churchill once said, "If not when, now? If not us, who?" That's LA's mantra and my bet, in Game 3. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game Of The Month is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST). Miami Florida comes in off a stunning loss to Virginia and suffice it to say, I think the Hurricanes take out their frustrations on the Eagles. Last week Miami fell 16-13 on the road and it’ll now try to steamroll a BC side which comes in off a satisfying 38-20 victory over Louisville last Saturday. The Hurricanes are making a permanent move back to QB Malik Rosier, after freshman K’Kosi Perry completely underwhelmed last week. Perry was just 3 of 6 for 20 yards with two INT’s. Rosier would come in in the second half and throw for 170 yards and an INT. Miami’s offense has plenty of issues, but the senior Rosier should bring back some steady calm to a unit which desperately needs it. The Hurricanes defense though remains one of the best in the country, among the leaders in almost every defensive category. BC’s offense revolves around its running attack, which averages 226.9 YPG. Last week RB David Bailey and Ben Glines combined to run for 219 yards and two TDs. But BC struggles are on the offensive side of the ball, while the defense remains a strength of the team. I’ll point out though that Miami is 21-15 ATS in its last 26 after giving up less than 20 points in its previous game, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series overall as well. I think the change of QB for Miami will in fact prove to be a good move andI look for the Hurricanes superior defense to then deliver the knock out blow. Lay the points, play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on the Houston Texans (8:20 EST). These two teams are trending in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on the short week. The Dolphins are reeling, losers of three straight, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit last weekend, while the Texans are surging, posting their fourth straight victory with a convincing 20-7 road win at Jacksonville. Last week Miami was out gained 457-322, including allowing a whopping 248 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has 972 passing yards and a weak 8/5 TD/INT. But he’s been injured the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well, meaning the volatile Brock Osweiler will likely start here and he has six TDs, two INTs and he’s also been sacked six times. The Dolphins are also without Cameron Wake, who is out having knee surgery last week. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson will look to take advantage. He so far has 1,937 passing yards with ten TDs and seven INTs. Lamar Miller leads the ground attack with 371 yards and a TD. WR DeAndre Hopkins has 707 yards and four scores this year as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Texans. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Attack is on Western Michigan at 7:00 ET. No upsets here in my opinion, as I look for the first place WMU Broncos to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night. Toledo comes to town off a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while Western Michigan enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Broncos after the Rockets scored the 37-10 home win in the series last season. Toledo is averaging 39.3 PPG and it gave up 326 passing yards to Buffalo last weekend. QB Eli Peters has a 6/2 TD/INT. Note that the defense is allowing 34.3 PPG. WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s conceding 28.4. QB Jon Wassink already has 1,980 passing yards with a strong 16/6 TD/INT. I’ll point out as well that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win over more than 20 points, while Toledo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. In conclusion, this year's Toledo team hardly looks bowl-bound. The Rockets have been to 11 bowls since 2001 and to SEVEN in the previous eight seasons. However, last year's 11-3 record seems as 'far away,' as Toledo lost its second straight and dropped to 3-4 (1-2 MAC) on the season. Toledo was outgained by Buffalo 463-to-295 in yards, while committing four turnovers in the 31-17 loss. Toledo has struggled on the road this season going 0-2, while allowing 77 points, and will 'limp' into this game 0-4 ATS in its last four overall (also checks in at 0-3 ATS to begin MAC play). Meanwhile, Tim Lester's second season at Toledo is going well. He had a tough act to follow (P.J. Fleck led WMU to a 13-1 season and a New Years' Six bowl game in 2016) but 2017's 6-6 record is a thing of the past. The Broncos opened 2018 with back-to-back losses (to Syracuse and at Michigan) but enter this contest on a six-game winning streak (4-0 start in MAC play) in which the team has averaged 41.0 PPG. WMU's balanced offense (249.4 YPG passing and 220.2 YPG rushing) will allow the Broncos to win this game with "room to spare!' Good luck…Larry |
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10-24-18 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Memphis Grizzlies (10:05 EST). Memphis looked terrible in a season Opening loss, but it’s looked fantastic in two victories since and I think the “under-the-radar” Grizz can keep the momentum rolling in this favorable situation. Sacramento has struggled with defensive consistency early and it comes in “dog tired” here after last night’s 126-112 setback at Mile High Denver just last night. The Grizz enter off an impressive 92-84 win over Utah, as guard Mike Conley had 23 points, seven boards and four assists. The Kings are averaging 125.6 PPG, but they’re about to face their stiffest defensive test to date. After completely shutting down dynamic Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, we have a hard time seeing Kings’ leading scorer De’Aaron Fox having much success today either. Memphis comes in having gone 18-10 ATS in its last 28 off an upset win as an underdog and I think it’s getting little respect in this spot. The Kings are “hungry” for a win, but the Grizzlies will be taking nothing for granted at this point after last year’s disastrous campaign. The Grizzlies’ offense catches a break here facing the league’s worst defense. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 109 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* World Series Game 1 Opener is on the “over” at 8:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games this year and easily advanced to the World Series with 3-1 and 4-1 series win over the Yankees (team's most-hated rival) and Astros (defending champs). The Los Angeles Dodgers were 16-26 back in May and were in third-place in the NL West in September. However, they won a Game 163 tie-breaker to capture the NL West title, then took out the Braves 3-1 in an NLDS matchup. In the NLDS, LA need to win Game 7 in Milwaukee, before advancing to the World Series in back-to-back years for the first time since 1977 and 1978. Boston is looking for its fourth World Series crown in 15 years (won in 2004, 2007 and 2013), while the Dodgers are attempting to end a title drought that dates to 1988 (you may just have seen or heard about Kirk Gibson's Game 1 HR once or twice). A pair of MLB's top lefties square off in Game 1. Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (2-1 & 2.37 ERA in four appearances, including three starts, in the 2018 postseason) for LA and Chris Sale (1-0 & 3.48 ERA in two starts and one relief stint) for Boston. Kershaw will be pitching at Fenway Park for the first time in his career. "I don't really think about that stuff," Kershaw said during a press conference. "I appreciate the history and everything that goes along with Fenway Park. ... Check this one off as far as pitching (Tuesday), but I don't really think about the history part of it too much, honestly." To be kind, Kershaw has experienced "mixed results" in the postseason and stands 9-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 28 career appearances (22 starts). Sale will be pitching for the first time in 10 days. He started Game 1 of the ALCS (just four innings, although he threw 86 pitches) but missed his Game 5 start due to a stay in the hospital with a stomach ailment (he was scheduled to start Game 6 vs Houston). "Just had a stomach thing," said Sale, who earned his first postseason win in the ALDS. "It's not fun. It's definitely not fun watching your team. Got to do what you got to do, though. It happened, we dealt with it, and we're here now. We keep rolling." Sale is 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA in five career postseason appearances (three starts). I saw the following statement on ESPN.com. "The first game of the Series will be a rare treat: two true aces in the prime of their careers going toe-to-toe in an old-school starting pitcher showdown." However, is that really the case? Kershaw's postseason record leaves MUCH to be desired and Sale's, in far fewer appearances, is checkered, at best. Plus, just who knows about Sale's health? The Dodgers set a club record with 235 HRs during the regular season and in 87 road games in 2018 (regular and postseason) LA has averaged 5.34 RPG. As for Boston, the Red Sox led all MLB teams in runs, BA and OPS during the regular season plus in 85 home games at Fenway this year, have averaged 5.69 RPG. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -4 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Losers Night Out is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:15 EST). It’s “do or die” essentially for both teams. The Falcons come in off a much needed home win over the Buccaneers and they’ll look to win two in a row for the first time all year and once and for all extinguish any hopes for Giants fans this season. The Giants’ are getting poor defensive play and their aging QB Eli Manning is unable to make the same throws that he used to. That has led to a “rift” between him and his main WR Odell Beckham Jr. The one bright spot for New York has been the play of rookie RB Saquon Barkley, who topped 100 yards rushing in last week’s loss, but who also had 99 receiving yards. Atlanta catches a break this week defensively facing New York’s incredibly one-dimensional offense. Last week Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan threw for 354 yards and three TD’s. Over his last four games Ryan has posted 1,432 passing with an incredible 12/0 TD/INT ratio while completing a whopping 73.2 percent of his passes. Atlanta has plenty to be positive about, as it does in fact only sit 2 1/2 games behind the Saints for the division lead. And with upcoming games against “bottom tier” competition (including Cleveland), the Falcons will look to deliver the “knock out blow” to the Giants early in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New York is still just 3-6 ATS in its lsat nine as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 227 | Top | 113-124 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). The Knicks come in off back-to-back losses to Boston and Brooklyn and they’d appear to be in over their heads here as well as New York soldiers forward to start the season without the services of offensive star Kristaps Porzingis. The Bucks come sin off victory over Indiana and Charlotte and they’ll look to dictate and control the pace of this one from the outset. Kevin Knox has come up big for the Knicks in back-to-back games with double digits in scoring off the bench, but he’d also suffer an ankle injury last time out. Tim Hardaway Jr. is now left to do the heavy lifting for an undermanned Knicks squad. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 15 boards and six assists in the most recent win over Indiana for Milwaukee. The Bucks haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but they’ll have an opportunity to pad their defensive stats as well tonight. I’ll point out as well that that New York has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 32 following a divisional contest, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 38 following a victory by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-18 | Avalanche v. Flyers -108 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:05 EST). Colorado comes to town off a satisfying 3-1 road win in Carolina, while Philadelphia enters off a confidence building 5-2 victory over New Jersey. Note that this is an immediate “revenge game,” as Colorado beat Philadelphia at home earlier in the year by a score of 5-2. Colorado is averaging 3.63 GPG and it’s conceding 2.25. Semyon Varlamov is 3-2 with a 1.77 GAA and he’s 4-3 with a 2.86 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. The Flyers are averaging 3.63 GPG and they’re conceding 4.23. Brian Elliot is now 2-3 with a 3.69 GAA and I think he’ll build off the win over the Devils. Note as well that he’s had tremendous success against the Avs throughout his career, going 9-5 with a 2.24 GAA. I’ll point out as well that the Flyers are 5-2 in their last seven at home in this series, while the Avs are just 3-8 in their last 11 following a victory. Colorado is still only 20-53 in its last 73 away from friendly confines. I’m laying this very reasonable price on the home side. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Bengals +6 v. Chiefs | 10-45 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Sunday Magic is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:20 EST). This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top and because of that, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Cincinnati will be hungry to get back into the winners circle here after a 28-21 loss at home to Pittsburgh, while KC looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 43-40 loss in New England last Sunday night. The Bengals are averaging 29 PPG and they’re conceding the 23rd most points. QB Andy Dalton has 1,674 passing yards and a respectable 14/7 TD/INT. The Chiefs are averaging 35.8 PPG, but they’re 32nd in the league in total yards allowed per game. I’ll point out as well that the Bengals are already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is still only 1-3 ATS in its last four against the AFC North. After a hard-fought loss to the Pats, I think the Chiefs are “running on empty.” I like the Bengals high-flying offense to keep this one competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Nuggets (8:00 EST). Denver destroyed the Suns at home last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. It’s the start of the season, so the “fatigue” factor on the second game of the back-to-back is a “non-factor” in my opinion. Golden State has won its first two games of the regular season, including a thrilling buzzer-beater over Utah on Friday. But I think the Warriors will stumble in the thin air of Mile high on Sunday night. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined for 69 points in the win over the Jazz. It was a bitter fight to the end and Golden State is clearly “lucky” to have won it on a tip back from Jonas Jerebko at the buzzer. DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Igoudala remain on the sidelines injured. The Nuggets got a triple-double from Nikola Jokic last night with 35 points, 11 assists and 12 boards. Denver has plenty of talent and I think it’ll take the two-time defending champs down to the wire. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 50-51 ATS in its last 101 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Denver is 40-30 ATS in its last 70 as an underdog. Grab the points, play on the Nuggets. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Flames -127 v. Rangers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Calgary Flames (7:05 EST). Calgary looks to bounce back off a 5-3 home loss to Nashville. The Rangers return home off a 4-3 OT loss in Washington, a game in which it gave up a big lead late. This is a “double revenge” contests for the Flames, as New York somehow managed to take both meetings last season. Calgary is fifth in the league in scoring with 3.71 GPG. Mike Smith is 3-3 with a 3.38 GAA on the season. New York is ranked 25th in scoring with just 2.43 GPG, while ranked 22nd in goals allowed in conceding 3.43. Clearly this isn’t a recipe for long-term success. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 2-4 with a 2.31 GAA so far. I’ll point out though that Calgary is 48-33 (+6.4 units) against teams with losing records the last two seasons, while New York is just 38-54 (-15.1 units) against clubs with winning records in the same span. I think Calgary is the much better team and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in The Big Apple. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). Washington sits atop the NFC East, but each team comes in with identical 3-3 records. To say this is an important game would be an understatement. Washington has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others this season. Dallas has struggled, but it broke out in a big way last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over into this one. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott led his team to a 40-7 win over Jacksonville last week, going 17 of 27 for 183 yards and two TDs. WR Cole Beasley had two TD catches and 101 yards on the night. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards rushing and a 15-yard TD run as well. The Dallas defense looked great, limiting the Jags to just 204 yards of total offense, while also forcing two turnovers. Overall the Cowboys are averaging 20.5 PPG and conceding 17.2. The Redskins are averaging 21.2 PPG and conceding 20.8. Last week they held on for a 23-17 victory over the Panthers as Alex Smith would go for 163 yards and two TDs. RB Adrian Peterson would post 97 yards on 17 carries. I’ll point out though that Washington is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the NFC East and only 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU victory. Dallas on the other hand is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The Boys have covered in five of the last seven in this series and the underdog has covered in 30 of the last 40 meetings. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Patriots v. Bears UNDER 49.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 142 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* Total is on the under Pats/Bears (1:00 EST). New England enters off a high-scoring shoot-out victory at home over the Chiefs and I think it’ll be more conservative here in this difficult road venue Sunday afternoon. Chicago sports one of the best defensive fronts in the league with pass rusher Khalil Mack leading the charge. The Pats now also have a legitimate RB threat in Sony Michel, who I expect to see a lot of action today. Last week he had 106 rushing yards with two TD’s. Last week the Dolphins’ Brock Osweiler had 380 passing yards and two TD’s against Chicago. But performances like that have been few and far between for the Bears’ defense and a return to form in this important game and on home field is imminent in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog and in 11 of its last 17 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 142 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST). Tampa looks to get back on track at home after three straight losses and take advantage of a Browns team which enters off a blowout loss at home to the Bolts. Baker Mayfield’s numbers have declined steadily each game he’s played. He doesn’t have much help either throwing to the likes of Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and Damion Ratley. Note that no pass catcher has more than one TD on the team. For the record, Mayfield has four TDs and five INTs. Last week he was held to 47.8 percent passing with one TD. Tampa comes back home desperate for a win as well after last week’s 34-29 loss to the Falcons. The defense has fallen apart of late, allowing 439.8 YPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break to bounce back this week facing Cleveland’s anemic attack. The Bucs’ offense looked a lot better with Jameis Winston back under center last week though and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Note as well that Tampa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 after allowing more than 350 yards in its previous game, while Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 on the road. I think this is going to be a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +4.5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). Carolina comes in off a 23-17 loss to the Redskins on the road, while the Eagles enter off a 34-13 road win over the Giants (I had Philly in that one.) Note that this is a revenge game for Carolina as Philadelphia won 28-23 on the road last year. Overall the Panthers are averaging 24.2 PPG and conceding 22.8. RB Christian McCaffrey has 349 yards and he leads the fourth ranked rushing unit in the league. In last week’s loss Cam Newton was solid in defeat with 275 yards, two TD’ and an INT. Philadelphia looked a lot better last week, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into the victory over the hapless Giants. Newton and the Panthers are an entirely different “animal.” Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was a stand-out last week with 278 yards, three TDs and no INTs. Overall Philadelphia is averaging 22.8 PPG and conceding 19.5. I’ll point out thought agh Carolina is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Philadelphia is only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Panthers desperately need a road victory to keep pace with their division and I think they catch the defending champs “flat footed” here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-18 | Nevada v. Hawaii -3.5 | Top | 40-22 | Loss | -105 | 130 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT on Hawaii (11:55 EST). Nevada is 3-4 overall and 1-2 in Mountain West play. It most recently lost its second straight, most recently a 31-27 setback to Boise State. The Wolfpack were out gained by a whopping 506-386 margin. QB Ty Gangi was just 24 of 42 for 204 yards, two TDs and an INT. Overall Nevada is averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 33.6. Hawaii on the other hand is 6-2, including 3-0 in Conference action. The Warriors come in off a 49-23 non-conference loss to BYU this past Saturday (I had the Cougars in that one!) WR John Ursua had 89 yards and a TD. QB Cole McDonald has 26 TDs and three INTs on the year. Overall Hawaii is averaging 36.5 PPG and it’s conceding 32. I think Nevada is overmatched on both sides of the ball today. The Wolfpack also come in with zero momentum and they’ve been struggling away from friendly confines as well. The Warriors can smell the blood in the water in my opinion (note as well that Hawaii is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 48 points or more in its previous contest.) Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the San Antonio Spurs (10:05 EST). The Blazers come in off an opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. San Antonio will look to take advantage and to build off its opening night win over the Wolves. DeMar DeRozan had 28 points in his first game for San Antonio, while LaMarcus Aldridge had 21 points and 19 boards. The Blazers got 24 points from guard Nick Stauskas off the bench in their win over the Lakers. Portland would go on to earn the victory despite being edged 34-12 in fast break points. I’ll point out though that San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Portland is just 17-23 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 115 points or more. This one has the feel of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one to come out on top. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +103 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* NLCS Game 7 Decider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers came home from LA down 3-2 in the NLCS, after scoring just three runs in losing Games 4 and 5. The Brewers had managed only 16 runs (3.20 per) while batting .219 with a .653 OPS in the first five games of the series but 'exploded' for four-run first in Game 6, on their way to a series-tying 7-2 win. Milwaukee had 11 hits plus received six walks from LA pitchers. More importantly, Milwaukee finally got some timely hitting, going 5-16 with RISP. David Freeze led off the game with a HR for LA but the team had just four more hits the rest of the way, scoring just one more run on an RBI double by Freeze. LA bats have been very quiet this series, as the Dodgers have scored a modest 18 runs through six games (3.00 per), while batting .210 with a .585 OPS. The Game 7 pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from Game 3 of this series, LA's Walker Buehler and Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin. Buehler has had a terrific rookie season, making 24 regular season appearances (23 starts), posting a 2.62 ERA, an 0.96 WHIP and a .193 BAA. Buehler posted a 1.58 ERA over his last 11 starts of the regular season but has allowed nine ERs over just 12 innings in two playoff starts (6.75 ERA). He gave up four runs on six hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings to suffer the loss in Game 3 on Monday, opposite Chacin. Speaking of Jhoulys Chacin, the 10-year vet signed a two-year contract with the Milwaukee Brewers in January, hoping to pitch in the postseason for the first time in his major league career. He has done more than his part to help fulfill that dream with an impressive regular-season in which he went 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA in a major league-best 35 starts. He even held the Cubs to a single run over 5 1/3 innings in the Game 163 tiebreaker that gave Milwaukee the Central Division title and the NL's No. 1 seed. Chacin has been outstanding in his two postseason starts, allowing six hits and five walks across 10 1/3 scoreless innings, while recording a pair of wins. Both teams came into Game 6 struggling offensively but it was Milwaukee which broke out of its slump. Why Not? After all, the Brewers finished with an NL-best 51-30 record at home during the regular season and have won four of five at Miller Park in the playoffs. Is Buehler up to the task? He's certainly shown no indication he is in his two postseason starts, so far. Plus, he posted a 3.45 ERA on the road as opposed to a 1.93 mark at home, during the regular season.Chacin has been 'MONEY' for Milwaukee all season, finishing 11th in the moneyline standings with a 23-12 team record in his starts (includes his Game 163 win), earning a profit of $1,079. He comes into this "winner-take-all" game having pitched 10 1/3 scoreless innings this postseason plus Milwaukee left-handed relief ace Josh Hader never entered Game 6's win thanks to a much-needed breakout performance by Milwaukee's offense. Hader's made six appearances during Milwaukee's 2018 playoff run and hasn't allowed a run while striking out 12 over seven innings. That's not reassuring news for the Dodgers, who have managed only four hits while striking out eight times in 18 at-bats over 4 2/3 innings against Hader during the NLCS! This will be the 10th Game 7 in NLCS history, with the home team winning six of the previous nine matchups. Make that SEVEN of 10, after tonight's game! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue OVER 66 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 99 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Ohio State/Purdue (7:30 EST). The second ranked and unbeaten Ohio State Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dwayne Haskins. Ohio State is so far 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, most recently pulling away for a convincing 30-14 win over Minnesota. Haskins was 33 of 44 for 412 yards and three TDs. Coach Urban Meyer though thinks his team can play even better: “I don’t think we played particularly well today. We’ll know more when we get a film grade, and I’ll let you know on Monday how they played,” Meyer said post-game. “We gave up three sacks. We have to keep Dwayne upright. Short yardage is not a strength. Red zone is not a strength, and running the ball is not a strength. That’s something we’ve got to get figured out.” Purdue is 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, but it comes in on top form, having won three straight. Most recently the Boilermakers come in off a 46-7 win over Illinois this past Saturday. QB David Blough was 25 of 36 for 377 yards and three TDs and Purdue would roll up 611 yards of total offense, including 150 rushing yards from DJ Knox. During the win streak Blough has been unstoppable, going for 1,001 yards and seven major scores. I’ll point out that Purdue has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 14 as a home underdog and in six of its last eight after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game, while Ohio State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road favorite and in ten of its last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. Two teams firing on all cylinders offensively collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a “shootout.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | Akron -4 v. Kent State | 24-23 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 32 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Akron 8* (3:30 EST). Akron comes in hungry after dropping its third straight, most recently a 24-6 setback at Buffalo last weekend. A date against hapless Kent State is just what the doctor ordered for the Zips to get back on track though, as the Golden Flashes come in having lost five straight. And if recent history is any precedence, then Akron has to be liking its chances today as it’s taken three straight in the series, including a 24-14 victory last season. Akron is averaging 23.2 PPG and it’s conceding only 26.4. QB Kato Nelson struggled in last week’s loss, going just 12 of 29 for 115 yards and an INT. Overall though he has 980 yards passing, seven TDs and six INTs. Kent is averaging only 23 PPG and it’s conceding a whopping 36.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,560 passing yards, to go along with seven TDs and eight INTs. Akron has its issues, but this a big opportunity which I believe it will make the most of. I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Akron is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | SMU v. Tulane -7 | 27-23 | Loss | -102 | 122 h 32 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Tulane (8*) (3:30 EST) This is an important game. Houston is going to likely win the conference, but the victor of this contest will be solidly in the second position. To say this is a “revenge” game for Tulane though would be a bit of an understatement, as SMU has won six of the last seven in the series. SMU has had a week of to ponder its 48-20 beatdown at the hands of UFC. Overall the Mustangs are allowing 39.7 PPG. Last week Tulane fell 37-21 to Cincinnati (who has since cracked the Top 25). Overall the Green Wave are averaging 379 YPG. I’ll point out though that SMU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye, while Tulane is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 36 points or more in its previous contest. Despite some of the QB issues that Tulane is going through, I think the Green Wave finds a way to get the job done at home in this crucial contest. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State +3 | 42-20 | Loss | -109 | 121 h 2 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ball State 8* (3:00 EST). Ball State is 3-4 overall and 2-1 in the MAC West. The Cardinals though come in with plenty of momentum as they look to move back to .500, most recently rallying from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to knock off CMU last weekend 24-23. EMU held on for a 28-26 win last weekend, nearly squandering a 28-3 half-time lead, struggling after QB Mike Glass left with injury. If Glass can’t play today (and if he does, one has to wonder about his health?!), then Tyler Wiegers would fill in. Last week he was 11 of 15 for 83 yards and he’s been decent with five TDs and just one INT this season. Ball State still needs three more wins for bowl eligibility, so the home side will clearly have the “foot on the gas” from start to finish here as it looks to take advantage of this EMU team that’s dealing with some pretty major QB issues at the moment. Ball State has a solid receiving corps, led by Riley Neal, who has 40 catches for 546 yards. The Cardinals are averaging a very respectable 441.4 yards of offense a game, thanks in part to them running nearly 85 play on offense per contest. I’ll point out as well that Ball State is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while EMU is a horrible 9-23 ATS in its last 32 following a SU victory. For all the reason listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-18 | Michigan -7 v. Michigan State | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Michigan (12:00 EST). Michigan State traveled to Ann Arbor last year and scored the 14-10 upset victory. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time! Michigan looks to avenge that setback and it comes into this one on top form, having posted six straight victories after an Opening season loss to Notre Dame. Michigan State on the other hand looks poised for a classic “letdown” here in my opinion after a big win over Penn State last weekend. Last week the Wolverines won 38-13 at home over Wisconsin. QB Shea Patterson had 124 passing yards, along with a season-high 90 yards rushing with a TD. RB Karan Higdon had 100 yards rushing as well. The difference maker today for me though is the Wolverines’ defensive unit, which limited Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook to 100 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s. Wisconsin came into that game averaging 30.3 points and 447.3 YPG. MSU QB Brian Lewerke managed a TD pass to Felton Davis with 19 seconds left on the clock to score the 21-17 victory over the Nittany Lions last weekend. But it wasn’t pretty, as Lewerke finished with a 22.8 QB rating and he was sacked three times, while the offensive line would additionally give up seven tackles for a loss. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory and only 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last against the conference. For all the reasons listed above, play on Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP is on Utah Jazz 10* (10:35 EST). Both teams won their openers. Golden State beat OKC 108-100 at home (without Russell Westbrook in the line-up), but it certainly wasn’t pretty, committing 21 turnover and shooting only 26.9 percent from three-point range. Stephen Curry was a bright spot in the win with 32 points, nine assists and eight boards. Utah enters off a 123-117 win over the Kings on Wednesday. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles would go 7 of 16 from three-point land and big man Rudy Gobert was 7 of 9 shooting with 15 boards and three blocks. I’ll point out though that Golden State is a poor 16-21 ATS in its last 37 when playing with two days rest, while Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 115 points or more. I look for Utah to return to form on the defensive side this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +105 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* NLCS Game 6 Eliminator is on the Mil Brewers at 8:35 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers needed a Game 163 to capture their sixth straight NL West crown but are now just one win away from a second straight trip to the World Series. The Dodgers will try to close out the best-of-seven NLCS when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday for Game 6. The Dodgers fell behind 2-1 in the series after dropping Game 3 at home but turned up the pitching over the next two contests and limited the Brewers to a total of three runs in 22 innings in back-to-back Game 4 & 5 victories.According to Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell , he told reporters "We were unable to score enough runs, really, I think that was the bottom line of the three games here. We gave ourselves a chance through obviously 12 innings (Tuesday) and six innings (Wednesday) to try to put ourselves in a good spot, but they've done a good job of holding us down offensively." Hyun-Jin Ryu takes the mound for LA in Game 6, opposite Milwaukee's Wade Miley. Ryu tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a 6-0 win over the Atlanta Braves during the NLDS but was not quite as sharp in Game 2 at Milwaukee in this series. He was reached for two runs on six hits over 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision (LA overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 4-3). Ryu has not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five starts going back to the regular season and has yet to be reached for more than three ERs in any of his 17 starts this season (including the playoffs)! Wade Miley started Game 5 for Milwaukee but threw only five pitches, issuing a walk to Cody Bellinger, before being replaced by right-hander Brandon Woodruff in a surprise move designed to give Milwaukee a matchup advantage. Miley's start in this contest makes him the first pitcher to start consecutive games for his team in the same postseason since George Earnshaw of the Philadelphia Athletics in the 1930 World Series against the Cardinals (according to STATS). Incredibly, Milwaukee starters have tossed just 14 innings in the NLCS, the lowest total ever through five games, according to Elias Sports Bureau. However, Miley dominated Los Angeles in Game 2, scattering two hits over 5 2/3 innings without factoring in the decision. Miley's pitched 10 1/3 innings this postseason, without allowing a run while giving up five hits and two walks. I will also note that Milwaukee navigated Game 5 without using relievers Josh Hader, Corey Knebel or Jeremy Jeffress. All three should be ready to go Friday. However, pitching hasn't been Milwaukee's problem. The Brewers have managed only 16 runs (3.20 per) while batting .219 with a .653 OPS. Then again, the Dodgers haven't done much better. They've also scored only 16 total runs in the series while batting .220 with a .599 OPS. Something has got to give. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich have been the table-setters all season long but have "gone silent" against the Dodgers. Yelich is 3-for-20 while Cain is 6-for-24 in the series and just 7-for-36 with 10 strikeouts during the postseason.The Brewers are 5-for-35 with RISP for the series, with just one hit in their last 11 tries. My bet is that the Miller Park surroundings will wake up Milwaukee's bats. Get ready for a Game 7 on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-18 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 207 | 101-113 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP is on the “under” C’s/Raptors 8* (8:05 EST). Boston enters off a 104-87 win over the 76ers at home, while Toronto finished with a 116-104 home victory in its opener over Cleveland. Note that the home team prevailed in all four games last year, with Toronto take the final matchup 96-78 on April 4th. Boston didn’t play very well offensively against the 76ers though, shooting only 43.3 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 37 from range. It did force 16 turnovers though, while also holding Philadelphia to just 39.1 percent shooting and 5 of 26 from range. Jayson Tatum led the way with 23 points and nine boards. Toronto shot decently in its opening win (48.9 percent), but it would go just 14 of 33 from range and only 12 of 20 from the charity stripe. The Raptors did decisively control the boards by a 56-40 margin. Kyle Lowry led the way with 27 points and eight assists, while Kawhi Leonard put up 24 points and 12 boards. This is going to be a war each time these teams get together this year and I think the first one falls “under.” Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-18 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -7 | 117-131 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP is on Memphis Grizzlies 8* (8:05 EST). A couple of bottom feeders go head-to-head here and I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Hawks lost 126-107 in New York in their Opener. Taurean Prince was a standout with 21 points, six boards and six assists. ATL though would commit 24 turnovers which would lead to 29 Knicks’ points. Memphis also comes in off a “dud,” falling 111-83 in Indiana on Wednesday. Marc Gasol finished with a weak 13 points. So where is the advantage? Note that ATL is just 25-30 ATS in its last 55 after a loss by ten points or more, while Memphis is 9-6 ATS in its last five after scoring 85 points or less. The Grizzlies have the advantage at home and I believe they’re the team to bounce back here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 80 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF MONTH is on Stanford (9:00 EST). Stanford comes into this one hungry and rested. The Cardinal are off their bye and they’re looking to halt a two-game slide, most recently falling to Notre Dame and Utah. Arizona State is just 1-3 in its last four, most recently falling to Colorado. Stanford has to be feeling more confident this week though because RB Bryce Love, who has missed the last two games with a small injury, is back and ready to go. Love already has 327 yards through four games. With Love in the line-up, Stanford is an entirely different team and I have a hard time seeing ASU’s porous defensive front slowing him down at all. ASU also comes in off its bye, but instead of rest leading to success, I think the opposite will be true for the Sun Devils. QB Manny Wilkins was injured in the loss to Colorado, but he’s also been given the green light today. I’ll point out though that Arizona State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three following its bye-week and only 2-4 ATS in its last six when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Stanford is 2-1 ATS in its last three following its bye and 6-3 ATS in its last nine when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3. The Cardinal have upcoming games against Washington and Washington State, so they can ill afford another loss. Stanford’s recent slide is directly attributable to Love’s absence, but now that he’s back though I’m expecting a complete “180.” Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Broncos -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* “Loser’s Night Out” is on the Denver Broncos (8:20 EST) Denver is on the road to face Arizona desperate for a victory after dropping four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams. Arizona beat the 49ers, but then it predictably came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-17 road loss in Minnesota. Denver’ QB Case Keenum has 1,647 yards with seven TD’s and eightt INT’s this year. Philip Lindsay has been a standout on the ground with 346 yards and a TD, while Royce Freeman has 272 yards rushing with three TD’s. The Cards have been splitting time at QB between Josh Rosen (626 yards, two TD’s, two INT’s and seven sacks) and Sam Bradford (400 yards, two TD’s, four INT’s and six sacks.) David Johnson has 297 yards and five TD’s. Denver closed strong last week though and I think it carries that momentum over here. The Broncos are the more “skilled” team across the board and note that they’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Cards on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight at home. I have a hard time seeing Arizona’s offense producing against Denver’s aggressive defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Heat v. Wizards -4.5 | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). This is the second game of a back-to-back for Miami, which just played and lost in Orlando last night. The Heat are an older team and while it’s still just the second game of the season, I do indeed believe that fatigue will be a factor here. Miami will now look to take advantage in its opening game of the year in front of the home town crowd after finishing in eighth in the East last year. Note as well that Miami is dealing with several injuries to open the year, including to James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington and Justise Winslow. Last year the Wizards averaged 106.6 PPG and conceded 106. Bradley Beal led the team with 22.6 PPG last year, as star guard John Wall missed significant time with injury. Wall is back and he’s joined by free agent signings Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, Thomas Bryant and Dwight Howard. I’ll point out as well that Miami is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Eastern conference, while Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games. Miami is tired and injured. The Wizards are rested and focused. Everything points to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -178 | 4-1 | Loss | -178 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:05 ET. The 108-win Boston Red Sox took out the hated Yankees in four games in the ALDS and now, after last night's thrilling 8-6 win, can clinch a berth in the World Series for the first time since 2013 when they remain in Houston for Thursday's Game 5 of the ALCS with the Astros. The excitement started early in Game 4, as the Astros were hurt by a controversial fan-interference call that turned Jose Altuve's would-be two-run HR to right field into an out as Boston's Mookie Betts reached above the fence to try and catch the ball (I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder). Jackie Bradley Jr. followed up his grand slam in Game 3 with a go-ahead, two-run HR in the sixth inning last night. The drama didn't end until Andrew Benintendi made a diving play in left field with the bases loaded for the final out (all three runners might have scored if the ball had gotten past him). The Game 5 pitching matchup features David Price (0-1 with a 9.95 ERA in two 2018 postseason starts) vs Justin Verlander (2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in two 2018 postseason starts). Price warmed up during the final two innings of Game 4 but wasn't used. He now draws the start in Game 5, after ace Chris Sale (stomach) was ruled out as a possibility on Wednesday. Verlander defeated the Red Sox in Game 1, giving up two runs on two hits over six innings but walked four. It wasn't a classic Verlander outing but it did result in a 7-2 Houston win. Frankly, I don't see any other way to go but to take Verlander. Price comes back on three days' rest and as ALL know, he remains winless over 11 career postseason starts (0-9, 6.16 ERA). He did not factor in the decision in Game 2, allowing four runs on five hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. However, with their 7-5 win, the Red Sox became the first team to claim victory in a postseason start made by Price. Meanwhile, Verlander is a remarkable 13-2 with a 2.49 ERA in ALDS and ALCS matchups in his career. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -139 | 8-6 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 8:35 ET. Jackie Bradley Jr. broke Game 3 open with a grand slam in the eighth inning, as Boston pulled away for an 8-2 victory. The win gives the Red Sox a 2-1 series lead, meaning Boston would take a 3-1 lead by winning Game 4, tonight. The defending World Series champion Astros have been challenged before in the last two postseasons, needing to win the final two games of the 2017 ALCS to knock out the New York Yankees plus captured Game 7 in LA to win last year's World Series against the Dodgers. Rick Porcello, who was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA in the regular season, starts for Boston and Charlie Morton (regular season of 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA) takes the mound for Houston. Porcello won his lone start of the ALDS, allowing one run on four hits over five innings against the Yankees in a 4-3 victory. However, it was Porcello's lone win in 14 career postseason appearances (five starts). He's 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in his postseason career. Morton posted career highs for victories (15) and strikeouts (201) in 2018 but this will be his first appearance of the postseason. In fact, he has pitched just four innings over the last month. Morton started the regular-season finale against the Baltimore Orioles for Houston, working just three innings by design. That capped an odd final month that saw him limited to 15 innings in four starts because of lingering right shoulder discomfort. Porcello has been used out of the bullpen twice this postseason, including a scoreless inning of relief in Game 2 of this series. He says that he has adjusted to the dual role. "I think as a starter you're trying to cover the course of a whole ballgame, so you're kind of trying to keep your emotions in check just because you've got a lot of baseball to pitch," Porcello said at his press conference. "You don't want to get too high, too low, whatever it is." I don't believe it's a positive and will take the well-rested Morton. Let's not forget Morton's performance in the 2017 World Series, when he appeared twice (started Houston's Game 7 win), pitching 10 1/3 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 11-0 KW ratio. Houston CAN'T afford to go down 3-1 and don't forget, last night's home loss was just the Astros' SECOND at home in 12 games the last two postseasons. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-18 | Pelicans v. Rockets -7.5 | Top | 131-112 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). New Orleans will once again be in the thick of things when the playoffs roll around. Anthony Davis is an MVP candidate and he’s supported by Jrue Holiday and now Julius Randle. I’ll point out though that the Pelicans have lost each of their last three regular season openers. Houston has improved its overall win total in each of the last three years. A trip to the NBA Finals likely would have happened last season if point guard Chris Paul hadn’t have gone down, but he’s back and healthy and ready to go. The team only got deeper with the addition of Carmelo Anthony as well. I’ll point out as well though that New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS inits last seven in its last seven in Houston. I think the Rockets send a message to the rest of the league with a decisive lop-sided blowout on Opening Night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-18 | Heat -2.5 v. Magic | 101-104 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Miami Heat (7:05 EST). Miami had 44 wins last year and it was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs by the 76ers. Dwayne Wade is back and so too is big man Hassan Whiteside, who comes into the campaign fully healthy. The Heat also have all star Goran Dragic. Orlando starts a new era under head coach Steve Clifford. The Magic have a lot of new faces this season, so they’ll once again be leaning heavily on Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. I’ll point out as well that the Magic are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Miami has won five of its last six regular season openers and all signs point to another victory here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-18 | Nets +5 v. Pistons | 100-103 | Win | 102 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:05 EST). The Nets will be desperate for a better season after managing just 28 wins last year. D’Angelo Russell was a bright spot with 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson wavered 13.9 PPG. Jeremy Lin is gone and big man Kenneth Faried has arrived. Detroit was just 39-43 last year. Blake Griffin led the way with 19.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.2 assists per game, while Tobias Harris averaged 18.1 points and 5.1 boards per contest. Opening night and anything can happen. Neither team is “hungrier” than the other at this point of the season, but note that despite their poor overall record, Brooklyn was a money-making 35-17 ATS in its last 52 on the road. Also note that the road team is 5-0 ATS in its last five in this series. I’m expecting a hard-fought battle until the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/LAD Over at 5:05 ET. Cody Bellinger ended a five hour-plus marathon with an RBI single in the bottom of the 13th, as the Dodgers earned a 2-1 victory in Game 4 to even the NLCS at two games apiece. Bellinger had two hits in Game 4 after going 1-for-21 in the first seven contests during the postseason and Manny Machado scored the winning run after extending his hitting streak to five games (8-for-22). Machado and Tayor are hitting a combined .355 for LA in this series but the rest of the team is batting just .159 against Milwaukee. LA in batting just .205 this postseason, including .201 in the NLCS, where the Dodgers have scored only 11 runs (that's 2.75 per game). Milwaukee isn't exactly 'tearing the cover' off the ball either, batting .231 against LA and averaging 3.5 RPG (14 runs in the four games, so far). However, Milwaukee's starting pitchers have yet to allow a run in the series, although is has to be noted that the group has pitched a modest total of only 14 innings (Gonzalez has drawn two starts but has stayed around for just THREE innings!). The Game 5 starters for this tie-breaking contest will be Milwaukee's Wade Miley and LA's Clayton Kershaw. Miley does not have a decision in two starts this postseason but has given the Brewers a chance to win in each outing, allowing only five hits and just one walk over 10 1/3 scoreless innings (0.35 WHIP). Miley was 5-2 (2.57 ERA) in 16 starts for Milwaukee in the regular season (Brewers went 12-4) and in 10 road starts this year (including one in the playoffs), he's sparkled with a 2.29 ERA, with Milwaukee going 8-2. Kershaw was brilliant in his first outing of the playoffs, allowing two hits over eight scoreless innings to beat Atlanta on Oct 5 but his postseason woes surfaced in his Game 1 start at Milwaukee, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks across just three innings to take a loss in the Brewers' 6-5 victory. Injuries limited Kershaw to 26 starts during the regular season, as he went a modest 9-5. However, he posted a 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and batters hit only .205 against him. With neither team hitting well and these two starters, "under" would be a reasonable play. However, I'm not even a little sold on Miley and LA's bats can't stay silent forever! Let me also note that Milwaukee's heralded bullpen has been less than spectacular, as if one removes Hader's 4 2/3 scoreless innings, the remaining relief staff owns a 4.71 ERA against LA. Just as importantly, how can anyone trust Kershaw in the postseason (8-8 with a 4.26 ERA over 26 appearances, including 21 starts)? In fact, he's been at his worst during his NLCS appearances, going 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 appearances (eight starts). This one is Goin' Over! Good luck, Larry |
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10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -148 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 9:05 ET. Despite owning the NL's best record at 96-67, the Milwaukee Brewers continue to 'fly under the radar' as far as national recognition goes. However, after shutting out the Dodgers 4-0 in Monday's Game 3 of the NLCS, Milwaukee has a chance to take a 3-1 lead in the series when they take the field tonight in Game 4 at Dodger Stadium. FIVE pitchers combined on a five-hitter as the Brewers became just the third team to toss three shutouts in the first six games of a postseason, joining the 1905 New York Giants and 1966 Baltimore Orioles (note: the record for shutouts in a single playoffs is five by the Cleveland Indians in 2016). The Dodgers entered the postseason off their sixth consecutive NL West title but LA's bats have been 'quiet' through three games in teh NLCS, hitting .220 as a team, while scoring a total of just nine runs., The Game 4 pitching matchup will feature a pair of lefties, Milwaukee's Gio Gonzalez and LA's Rich Hill. Gonzalez was struggling through a frustrating season with the Nationals and was 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA (Nats were 11-16 in all of his starts, minus-$$1181 vs the moneyline) when the Brewers acquired him from Washington just before the deadline to trade for players and have them eligible for postseason play. Gonzalez "turned back the clock" with the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts after being acquired from Washington, as the Brewers went a perfect 5-0, plus-$502 vs the moneyline in his starts. However, he hadn't pitched since Sep 30. when he was tabbed to start Game 1 of this series. He was pulled after allowing one run and one hit (a HR by Manny Machado) in two innings. Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell didn't announce Gonzalez as the starter until after Monday's victory but said starting the 33-year-old always was the preferred plan. "We laid out some scenarios, kind of going into (Monday's) game, what the possibilities were for (Tuesday)," Counsell said in his post-game press conference. "And if we got a good start and we're in good shape, Gio was always going to be the guy." Rich Hill started Game 4 of LA's NLDS with Atlanta, a game the Dodgers won 6-2 to clinch that series 3-1. Hill pitched 4 1/3 innings against the Braves, allowing two runs. However, he gave up four hits and also five walks, so it was far from an encouraging outing. Hill is 1-2 with a 3.55 ERA in nine career postseason starts but note that he was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 12 innings in two regular-season starts against the Brewers in 2018 (LA was 2-0). Yes, Gonzalez went just two innings in Game 1 (threw just pitches) but he is coming back on just three days' rest. However, more importantly, he has yet to earn a decision in seven career postseason starts, while posting a 4.76 ERA. LA didn't score in their Game 3 loss but the Dodgers sure had their chances. LA fizzled by going 0-for-10 with RISP and left EIGHT men on base. The Dodgers are a woeful 4-11 all-time when trailing 2-1 in a seven-game series, so it goes without saying, they CAN'T afford to fall behind 3-1 to the Brewers. I have to believe Gonzalez is vulnerable, as his two-inning stint in Game 1 (Oct 12), represents his only game-action since Sep 30. This 'perfect storm' goes to LA. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under 76ers/Celtics. The 76ers improved by a whopping 24 victory from 16/17 to 17/18. After taking care of Miami in the first round, Philadelphia was then bounced from the second from these very Celtics. Philly averaged 109.8 PPG last year but if the 76ers hope to make a real push for the title, clearly they’ll have to get things figured out defensive after allowing an average of 105.3 PPG last year. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 22.9 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per game, while Ben Simmons added 15.8 points, 8.1 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.73 steals per game. Last year the Celtics averaged 104 PPG, while conceding just 100.4. Kyrie Irving led the way until he was injured with 24.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Irving and Gordon Hayward are both at 100% health and the rest of the team (Marcus Smart, Al Horford and standout Jayson Tatum) remain. This one has the feel of an all “war” to me, rather than a wide-open All Star Game style of contest. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | Stars v. Devils -125 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Jersey Devils 8* (7:05 EST). No need to overthink this one. Dallas comes to town off a 4-1 road loss in Ottawa just last night, while the Devils have had a couple nights off after their 3-2 home win over the Sharks. Home ice can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor either in this one as these teams split their season series last year, with each winning on home ice. Dallas will go with Anton Khudobin in net and he’s so far 1-0 with a 3.02 GAA. New Jersey will go with Keith Kinkaid, who is 3-0 with a 1.34 GAA. I’ll point out as well that the Devils are 7-1 in their last eight theme games, while Dallas is now just 2-10 in its last 12 on the road and only 1-10 in its last 11 against the Eastern Conference. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | Panthers v. Flyers -121 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Flyers 8* (7:05 EST). Florida comes to Philadelphia with zero momentum, off a 3-2 home loss to the lowly Canucks. The Flyers enter off a hard-fought 1-0 loss to Las Vegas. This a “revenge” game of sort for the Flyers as Florida took two of three in the series last year. The Panthers have yet to score a power play goal this year and they rank 26th in the league on the penalty kill. James Reimer is expected in net tonight and he’s 4-7 with a 2.51 GAA lifetime against Philadelphia. The home side counters with Brian Elliot, who is 6-3 with a 2.41 GAA lifetime against the Panthers. Overall the Flyers are averaging 3.20 GPG despite getting shutout in their last game. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 5-2 in its last seven after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest, while Florida is 1-4 in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Flyers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | Avalanche -124 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Avalanche (7:05 EST). Colorado comes in off a 3-2 OT loss at home to Calgary, while the Rangers enter off a 2-1 home loss to Edmonton. The Avs took both meetings last year and I think they’re going to find a way to get the job done here as well. Colorado is averaging 3.80 GPG. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is already 3-1 with a 1.75 GAA and he’s 6-3 with a 3.07 GAA lifetime against the Rangers. New York is just 1-4 and it’s averaging 2.40 GPG, while conceding 3.60. Henrik Lundqvist is 1-3 with a 2.03 GAA. I’ll point out as well that the Rangers are only 5-21 in their last 26 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game, while the Avalanche are 11-5 in their last 16 against the Eastern Conference. I think Varlamov is the difference in this one. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -127 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* ALCS Game 3 Tie-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 5:0 5 ET. The Boston Red Sox were able to even their best-of-seven series with the Astros by taking Game 2, 7-5. Boston's offense, which led the majors in batting average and runs scored during the regular season, woke up after a quiet Game 1, with nine hits and seven runs. However, for some unexplainable reason, Boston seemed to think David Price's 4 2/3-inning, four-run effort was worthy of praise. The Red Sox had better hope Nathan Eovaldi does better. The Astros have to be happy with getting a split in Fenway and now return home for the next three games. The Game 3 pitching matchup features Nathan Eovaldi and Dallas Keuchel. Eovaldi owns the only quality start among Boston pitchers in the postseason, after dominating the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the AL Division Series. He scattered one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out five and not walking a batter. Eovaldi started the season with Tampa Bay and made 12 appearances (11 starts) for the Red Sox, going 3-3 with a 3.33 ERA (Boston was just 5-6 in his starts). Keuchel surrendered two runs and four hits in five innings at Cleveland in Game 3 of the ALDS but did not factor in the decision of a game the Astros went onto win 11-3. The former Cy Young Award winner won his lone start against Boston in the 2017 ALDS but was not sharp against the Red Sox on Sep 9, when he was knocked around for five runs on nine hits in six innings of a 6-5 loss. Is Eovaldi really ready for "primetime?" Boston points to his Game 3 effort but let me note that the Red Sox provided him with 11 runs of support while he was on the mound (no real pressure). Eovaldi started at Houston as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays on June 20 and was knocked around for four runs on seven hits (including four solo HRs) in six innings of a 5-1 loss. We haven't seen Keuchel's "Cy Young form": in 2018 but his teammates have homered in a postseason-record 14 consecutive games, while going 10-1 at home the during the 2017 and 2018 playoffs, combined. Houston goes up 2-1 in this series with a victory here. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 34 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Total Wipeout Winner is the under 49ers/Packers (8:15 EST). The 49ers come in off a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. After losing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to injury three weeks ago and sitting at just 1-4, San Francisco’s season is essentially over. If the 49ers hope to turn things around, the last thing they can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Aaron Rodgers and company. The Packers have been trading good starts with bad. After a 22-0 win over the Bills, they took a step back in last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit. But the Green Bay defense has a big opportunity to redeem itself here against San Francisco back-up QB CJ Beathard, who for the most part has struggled in his forced started role. Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Green Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 158 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 6 las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. KC is so far unbeaten (5-0), but I think that string finally comes to an end in this difficult road venue. Last week the Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 at home. Patrick Mahomes was average, throwing for 313 passing, two INT’s, while also running for a TD. After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have now won two in a row, most recently smashing the Colts 38-24 on October 4h. QB Tom Brady was phenomenal in the victory with three TDs, while rookie RB Sony Michel had 98 yards rushing and a TD as well. A loss would top the Pats three games behind KC and potentially two behind the Jags, while also being two grind the Bengals. New England’s success over the years has counted on earning the bye in the first week of the playoffs, so for all intents and purposes, this has become a “must win” game for New England if it hopes to keep that string of success alive. Note as well that the Patriots have won ten straight home games since a 33-30 loss to Carolina in Week 4 of 2017. New England has in fact averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 yards in three home wins this year. And finally note that New England is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after reposing more than 350 yards in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 144 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). I believe the more “desperate” team will win here. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott’s ability is being called into question and I believe the beleaguered pivot will respond with his best performance of the season. The Jags come in off a tough 40-14 road loss at Kansas City and they now have to muster up the energy for another difficult road match-up this week. Dallas enters off a 19-16 OT loss at Houston last Sunday. The Jags are averaging only 20.5 PPG and they’re conceding 17.4. QB Blake Bortles has 1,525 passing yards and a weak 8/7 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette has struggled with a hamstring issue and it’s clearly effected the chemistry of the offense. Dallas is averaging only 16.6 PPG and it’s conceding only 19.2. Prescott had 961 passing yards with five TDs and four INTs, while also running for 121 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot has 480 yards and two TDs. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of three points or less range. I think Elliot and the home side defense delivers a victory for Jerry Jones on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -102 | 142 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). The Jets broke a two-game slide with a 34-16 win over Denver last week. QB Sm Darnold was just 10 of 22 for 198 yards, but he also had three TD’s. The big difference offensively was the run game, which posted 323 rushing yards. Darnold has a weak 7/6 TD/INT and he’s looked brilliant at times this year and very much like a rookie in others. Overall the Jets are averaging 24.6 PPG and conceding 21. Indianapolis comes in off a 38-24 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. QB Andrew Luck had 365 passing yards, three TDs and two INTs. TE Eric Ebron finished with 105 yards and two TDs. So far Luck has a strong 12/5 TD/INT. The Colts have come out on the short end of the stick this season, as they’ve been outscored by four points per game on average. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 23.6 PPG and conceding 27.6. Additionally I’ll point out that Indianapolis is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive losses, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of three points or less. I think Luck is the difference here. The Colts finally get over the hump here and find a way to punch one into the win column. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Chargers v. Browns OVER 44 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Goin Over Total is on the over Chargers/Browns (1:00 EST). Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. LA enters off a convincing 26-10 him win over Oakland, while Cleveland posted a 12-9 OT home victory over Baltimore. Last year Philip Rivers beat the Browns 19-10 at home and he’d pass for 344 yards and a TD. LA comes in averaging 27.4 PPG and it’s conceding 26. The margin for victory is slim. Rivers though has a sparkling 13/2 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland is averaging 22.8 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. RB Carlos Hyde now has 348 rushing yards and five TD’s. The Browns defense looked superb last week against a poor passing game (Joe Flacco), but I think the unit will have its hands full today against Rivers’ arial assault. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3 and in four of its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite. I think this number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger considering all of the great situational factors working in favor of the desperate Falcons today. Atlanta is just 1-4 overall after three straight loss to the Saints, Bengals and Steelers. Tampa started the season well, but it stumbled with two straight losses before its bye week. Now Tampa welcomes back starting QB Jameis Winston to the fold, after Ryan “Fitz-Magic” predictably came back down to Earth after a couple of big games to start the year. The Bucs’ weakness on defense? Their pass rush and defending the pass. Jason Pierre-Paul has four sacks and nine QB hits, however Tampa is still tied for 26th in sack rate after five weeks. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan is still seventh in the league with 1,601 passing passing yards. The Falcons will look to take advantage of a Tampa team which has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with losing home records and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road overall. I think Winston will go through some “growing pains” in his debut and I believe it’s also worth noting that the favorite is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 in this series as well. Lay the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -7 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 128 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on USC (10:30 EST). Colorado enters off a 28-21 home win over Arizona State, while USC got the better of Arizona 24-20 on the road as well. If recent history is any precedence, then the Trojans have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met last year USC would post the convincing 38-24 road victory. I think Colorado comes in complacent after it’s 5-0 start. Overall the Buffs are averaging 37.8 PPG, while holding the opposition to just 18.4. QB Steven Montez had 328 passing with two TDs in last week’s win over Colorado State. USC is averaging 24.6 PPG and its conceding 26.2. QB JT Daniels had 197 passing yards last week, while RB Aca’Cedric Ware had 173 rushing yards. After two poor performances on the defensive side of the ball to Texas and Washington State, the Trojans limited Arizona to just 98 rushing yards last week. I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records, while USC is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival. I like USC’s improved defensive play to carry over here and I’m finally expecting the Buffs to stumble. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Hawaii v. BYU -14.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 128 h 5 m | Show | |
Writeup: My 8* Bailout is on BYU (10:15 EST). After three straight victories, I think the Warriors are going to finally stumble here at the national level. The Warriors are 6-1 and the currently lead the West Division of the Mountain West Conference. Hawaii though has won its last two games by a combined seven points. Last week it had to hold on for a much tougher than expected 17-13 win over Wyoming. QB Chevan Cordeiro was 19 of 29 for 148 with two TD’s and an INT. BYU will be eager to get back on track here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 45-20 home loss to Utah State. QB Tanner Mangum was 27 of 46 for 270 yards with two TD’s and an INT. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR Dylan Collie, who had eight catches for 68 yards and a TD last week, but who had 1,300 yards receiving and nine TD’s with Hawaii before transferring last season. BYU is deep, as four players have at least ten receptions and seven different players have a TD catch. I’ll point out as well that the Cougars are 15-8 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games, while Hawaii is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. For all the reason listed above, play on BYU. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Astros +109 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 109 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on the Hou Astros at 8:05 ET. Both the Red Sox (108 wins) and the Astros (103 wins) finished with franchise-best wins totals. Boston led MLB in runs scored (5.41 per), BA (.268) and OPS (.792). Houston averaged a healthy 4.92 RPG (6th) but was able to led all MLB teams in run-differential (plus-263) due to a pitching staff that led in overall ERA (3.11), bullpen ERA (3.03), WHIP (1.10) and Ks (1,687). Boston took out the hated-Yankees in four games, while Houston swept the Indians, outscoring Cleveland 21-6. These two juggernauts will square off to decide which team gets to represent the American League in the World Series when the Red Sox host the Astros on Saturday in Game 1 of the best-of-seven ALCS. The Red Sox will well-remember the Astros eliminating them 3-1 in an ALDS matchup in 2017, as Houston then went on to win the franchise's first-ever World Series title. Boston owns the homefield edge and was a MLB-best 57-24 at Fenway during the regular season but Houston was a MLB-best 57-24 away from home. The pitching matchup is first-rate, as Justin Verlander (1-0, 3.38 ERA) takes on Chris Sale (1-0, 2.84 ERA. Verlander was16-9 in the regular season, posting a 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a .200 BAA. Sale was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .181 BAA. Verlander started Game 1 of the ALDS against Cleveland and held the Indians hitless through the first five innings before allowing two runs and coming away with a 7-2 win. Sale struck out eight over 5 1/3 innings to earn a win in Game 1 of Boston's ALDS but needed to sweat, as Boston's bullpen has been shaky down the stretch as of late. He also tossed a perfect inning of relief during Boston's clinching Game 4 win over New York. This is a game in which it is highly likely that the best starting pitcher will give bettors the "W." This will be the eighth time Sale and Verlander will face each other as starters and Verlander has the clear advantage over the first seven matchups. Verlander is 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA, an 0.98 WHIP and .207 opponents' batting average against Sale's teams. while Sale is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and .261 batting average against when pitching against Verlander's teams (STATS gets the credit here) Verlander earned a pair of wins against Boston during the 2017 ALDS, including a victory out of the bullpen in the clinching Game 4 at Fenway Park. Meanwhile, Sale was 0-2 against Houston in that series, pitching only 9 2/3 innings while allowing 13 hits and nine ERs (8.38 ERA). Sale has had little playoff experience, going 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA in the postseason in his career. In stark contrast, Verlander is 12-6 with a 3.08 ERA lifetime in the postseason. His woes have come in the World Series (0-4) but in ALDS and ALCS matchups, he's made 18 appearances (17 starts), going 12-2 with 2.46 ERA and a 127-32 KW ratio. Verlander makes Houston the play. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Western Kentucky v. Charlotte +9.5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 121 h 23 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Charlotte 8* (3:30 EST). While I’m not predicting an outright upset, I do think the home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Both teams come in off their bye week. WKU most recently lost 20-17 at home to Marshall, while Charlotte lost 28-7 to UAB in its latest action. This is a revenge game for the 49ers after the Hilltoppers took the only other game ever played between the schools, a 45-14 home win last October 14th. WKU is averaging 18.6 PPG and it’s conceding 25. QB Drew Ecklels has 514 yards with three TD’s so far, while Davis Shanley has 412 yards and a TD. Charlotte was out gained 330-271 by UAB in its loss two weeks ago. It did however own a convincing 33:37 to 26:26 time of possession advantage. Two costly turnovers proved to be too much to overcome. The 49ers average 21.8 PPG and they concede 31.4. QB Chris Reynolds had 1,062 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while RB Benny LeMay has 414 yards with three scores on the ground. I’ll point out though that WKU is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Charlotte is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. I think the week off helps Charlotte in this home situation. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Marshall -3.5 v. Old Dominion | 42-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 23 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall 8* (3:30 EST). Marshall enters off a 34-24 home loss to MTSU, while ODU was smashed 52-33 at FAU last weekend. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Herd have to be liking their chances this afternoon because when these schools met last year it was Marshall which posted the convincing 35-3 win at home. Marshall is averaging 26.2 PPG and it’s conceding 26.4. Last week QB Alex Thomson had 173 passing yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Tyler King though had a big day with 165 rushing yards. WR Tyre Brady has 427 receiving yards and five TDs. Marshall’s lone conference win was a tight 20-17 road victory at WKU. ODU is averaging 28.7 PPG and it’s conceding 38.7. RB Jeremy Cox was poor last week with 13 yards on eight carries. QB Blake LaRussa had 383 yards, two TDs and two INTs. The Monarchs defense was terrible though, allowing 52 points on 605 total yards against FAU and I think Thomson and Brady will have their opportunities as well. Additionally note that Marshall is still 8-5 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while ODU is a poor 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on Marshall. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Washington -3.5 v. Oregon | 27-30 | Loss | -100 | 121 h 22 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington 8* (3:30 EST). I like the No. 7 Washington Huskies to pull away down the stretch in Oregon to take on the No. 17 Ducks. Washington enters off a potentially dangerous victory over UCLA last week, avoiding the “trap” and at least securing a solid 31-24 outright road win. Oregon had its bye week, but before that it got the better of Cal 42-24 on the road on September 29th. If recent history is any precedence, then Washington has to be liking it chances this afternoon, because when these teams played last year the Huskies would smash the Ducks 38-3. Washington is averaging 29.2 PPG and it’s conceding only 13.7. Last week QB Jake Browning had 265 passing yards with one TD and one INT. Overall he has 1,508 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT. Oregon is averaging 45.6 PPG and it’s conceding 24.4. QB Justin Herbert had 225 yards and two TDs in the victory over Cal on Sept. 29th. I’ll point out though that Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 off a win against a conference rival, while Oregon is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Nebraska +5.5 v. Northwestern | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Nebraska (12:00 EST). Nebraska will need to run the table to earn a bowl bid and while that obviously isn’t going to happen, I still believe that Scott Frost will have his troops ready to play as they look to get off the schneid and break the 0-5 slide. In fact the Huskers have lost nine straight dating back to last year. Note that that slide started with a loss to these very Wildcats. With a chance to avenge that setback and to finally punch one into the win column, I’m expecting this contest to come right down to the wire. Besides, Northwestern is primed for a letdown here after last week’s upset win over MSU, a victory which snapped a three-game skid of its own. Last week Nebraska fell 41-24 to Wisconsin. The defense has been the major issue to this point, allowing 39.2 PPG so far. QB Adrian Martinez though is starting to trend in the correct direction and I think that progression gets carried over. Northwestern enters off the shocking 29-19 win over MSU last weekend. The run game was once again a disaster though, posting just eight positive yards. QB Clayton Throson had a mixed back with 373 yards and three TDs, but also two INTs. Overall he has a weak 6/5 TD/INT. These teams are evenly matched in my estimation. But I’m banking on all of the external motivating factors working in favor of the visitors to be the difference here. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-18 | Florida v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -129 | 118 h 54 m | Show | |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (12:00 EST). I think the No. 14 ranked Gators come in a bit complacent here and get caught looking past the hungry Commodores. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect a much tighter than expected battle. Vandy has played a very difficult schedule to open the campaign, with two Top 10 opponents in Georgia and Notre Dame. Next week the Commodores are at No. 18 Kentucky. The Gators come in content after back-to-back wins over ranked foes, most recently knocking off LSU 27-10. QB Feleipe Franke was just 17 of 27 though for 161 yards, one TD and one INT. Overall the Gators are averaging 34 PPG and conceding 14.8. The Commodores were humbled by Georgia 41-13 last week. QB Kyle Shurmur was only 14 of 28 for 169 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. The Commodores though would run for 138 yards. Overall though Shurmur owns a respectable 9/4 TD/INT. Overally Vandy averages 25.2 PPG and it concedes just 24. I’ll point out as well that Florida is still just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite an interestingly, 0-6 ATS in games played on turf, while Vandy 3-0 ATS in its last three as home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +143 | 5-6 | Win | 143 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* NLCS Opener is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers won their sixth straight NL West title in 2018 (needed a Game No. 163 home win over Colorado to do so) and get set to play in their third consecutive NLCS when they visit Milwaukee on Friday night to take on the Brewers. Milwaukee ended a six-year playoff drought by winning the NL Central title in 2018 by beating the Cubs in another Game No. 163 (3-1 at Wrigley) and return to the NLCS for the first time since losing to the Cardinals in 2011. Milwaukee's previous deepest foray in the postseason came way back in 1982, when the Brewers represented the AL in the 1982 World Series, ironically also losing to the Cardinals. The Dodgers opened the season just 16-26 but including the postseason, have gone 79-46 (.632) since, including taking out the Braves. Clayton Kershaw, LA's three-time Cy Young winner in the NL (2011, 2013 and 2014) will get the ball in Game 1. Kershaw put together one of his top postseason performances in the win over Atlanta in Game 2 of the team's NLDS (8 IP / 2 hits 0 runs). However, that win leaves him with just an 8-7 (4.08 ERA) postseason record in 25 career appearances (20 starts). Kershaw was 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee this season and owns a 6-5 record with a 2.86 ERA in 14 career starts against Milwaukee. Starting opposite Kershaw will be Gio Gonzalez. Quite understandably, the last thing Gonzalez expected six weeks ago was to be the Game 1 starter in the NLCS. The veteran left-hander was struggling through a frustrating season with the Nationals and was 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA (Nats were 11-16 in all of his starts, minus-$$1181 vs the moneyline), when the Brewers acquired him from Washington just before the deadline to trade for players and have them eligible for postseason play. Gonzalez has "turned back the clock" with the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts after being acquired from the Washington Nationals (Brewers are a perfect 5-0, plus-$502 vs the moneyline). However, he hasn't pitched since Sep 30. Let me also point out that he hasn't earned a decision in six career postseason starts (4.78 ERA) but the Nats were 3-3 in those starts. It's been a less-than-stellar season for Kershaw (injuries limited him to 26 starts and he went just 9-5) but the Dodgers have won each of his last NINE starts (including the playoff game vs Atlanta). Is his performance against the Braves evidence that his postseason 'blues' are behind him? I'm not convinced even a little and note that Kershaw's biggest playoff problems have come in NLCS matchups. In five previous NLCS matcups, he's 2-4 with 4.75 ERA in 10 appearances (seven starts). Gonzalez has looked excellent since coming to the Brewers and he takes an excellent history against the Dodgers into this game, having gone 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in six career outings. Oh, by the way, have I mentioned that the Brewers take the field on an 11-game winning streak. The play is on the home team. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 77 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* NFC East Showdown is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 EST). While they’ve struggled to this point, I still think that the defending Champion Philadelphia Eagles have the better QB, defense and special teams in this match-up and I look for them to find a way to get the job done on the short week. Philadelphia has yet to win on the road this year, but the Eagles are still 5-3 SU their last eight away from friendly confines. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. Note that Wentz has two or more TD passes in ten of his last 12 games. With Jay Ajayi now out for the rest of the year, look for Wentz and Zach Ertz to step up here. Overall the Eagles are allowing 20.8 PPG and only 343.2 yards. New York’s ground game is averaging only 75.6 YPG. Rookie Saquon Barkley has looked brilliant at times and poor in others. QB Eli Manning is completing 71.7 percent of his passes for six TD’s and three INT’s. Home field advantage has been anything but for New York though, which is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home. The Eagles though loving coming to “The Big Apple,” as evidenced by their sharp 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 played in New York. Additionally note that Philadelphia is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three Thursday night games, while New York is 0-2 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Jets v. Predators -125 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators 9* (8:00 EST). Winnipeg got destroyed in Dallas, but then it bounced back with a win at home against LA. I think the Jets will stumble again here though in this difficult road venue. Winnipeg net minder Connor Hellebuyck has been inconsistent to say the least to open the year and I think he’s going to struggle again away from friendly confines. The Predators beat the Rangers and Isles, but then returned him for its opener only to get shutout by the Flames 3-0. It wasn’t for a lack of trying though, as the Predators put 43 shots on goal. With that awkward contest out of the way, I believe Nashville comes to play tonight as it looks to secure its first home win of the season. Note that Preds’ goaltender Pekka Rinne will get the nod here. I’ll point out as well that Nashville is a sharp 8-3 in its last 11 home games following a home loss and posted as a favorite in the -110 to -135 range. Look for Nashville to rebound with its first home win of the season. Great value. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Kings +113 v. Canadiens | 3-0 | Win | 113 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Kings 8* (7:30 EST). LA will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after its tough 2-1 road defeat to the Jets. Backup goaltender Jack Campbell has faced 77 shots on goals over his last two starts for the Kings and he’s stopped 73 of those, posting a .948 save percentage and 2.03 GAA through two games. The Habs come in complacent in my opinion, fresh off their 5-1 road win over Pittsburgh. Carey Price has looked decent to start the year after a disastrous campaign last season. Note though that Montreal is just 2-7 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. I think the veteran Kings behind Campbell find a way to score the minor upset on the road on Thursday night. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -133 | 5-4 | Loss | -133 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Florida Panthers 8* (7:00 EST). Florida is out for a measure of revenge here, as Columbus took all three meetings last year. The Blue Jackets come in contented after their 5-2 home win over Colorado, while Florida comes in focused after its 2-1 shootout loss to Tampa on the road. Columbus could no doubt be caught “looking ahead” here to its game against Tampa on deck. Sergei Bobrovsky gets the call in net and he’s so far 1-1 with a 2.53 GAA. This is only Florida’s second game of the season, so there’s no doubt that the Panthers come into this one rested. James Reimer will get the the call in net for the home side. Last year he was 22-20 with a 2.99 GAA. The Panthers have in fact dropped four straight in this series, but as mentioned off the top, I believe the Blue Jackets are going to be caught “looking past” Florida tonight to their tough matchup against the Lightning upcoming. Play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-18 | Avalanche v. Sabres -115 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Buffalo Sabres (7:00 EST). Colorado comes in off a 5-2 home loss to Columbus, while Buffalo enters off a 4-2 home victory over Las Vegas. After its first loss of the year, I think Colorado takes a step back here. The Avs opened the season 2-0, but they’d go on to lose their first road game of the year against the Blue Jackets. And that’s significant because note that Colorado was 28-13 in front of the home town crowd last season, compared to going just 15-26 on the road. Semyon Varlamov is expected between the pipes and last year he was 24-22 with a 2.68 GAA overall, but only 9-14 with a 3.09 GAA on the road. Buffalo enters 2-1, losing 4-0 at home to Boston on Opening Night, before then beating the Rangers (3-1) and the Knights. The Sabres once again turn to Carter Hutton in net and he stopped 35 of 37 shot that he faced last time out. Overall Hutton is 30-20 with a 2.31 GAA in all home game situations. I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is 8-3 in its last 11 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Colorado is just 17-52 in its last 69 on the road overall. I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match. I look for Colorado’s “road issues” to continue on Thursday night. Play on the Sabres. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-18 | Maple Leafs v. Stars -115 | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Stars (8:35 EST). Toronto comes in off a high-scoring 7-6 win at Chicago and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the desert. So far the inconsistent Leafs have conceded and averaged 4.3 GPG. Goaltender Frederik Anderson has been a disaster, giving up six goals off 23 shots against Ottawa in his previous start. Dallas looks sharp early, shutting out Arizona and then destroying Winnipeg 5-1. Tyler Seguin had two goals and an assist in the victory over the Jets. Jamie Benn leads the team though five points. Stars’ net minder Ben Bishop has so far given up just one goals on 63 shots faces. And to say this is a “revenge” game is a bit of an understatement I think, as Dallas has won just once in the last eight in the series. I’m banking on the consistent play of Bishop to be the difference in the end. Great value, play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* ALDS ‘GOY’ is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET. The Boston Red Sox pounded out 18 hits in routing the Yankees 16-1 in Game 3 of this ALDS. Boston's Brock Holt hit for the first cycle in postseason history (five RBI), as the Red Sox handed the Yankees their worst postseason margin of defeat in the franchise's storied history. Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora saw his decisions work out perfectly. Cora opted to insert Brock Holt into the lineup at second base and started Nathan Eovaldi, who gave Boston seven innings and allowed just one run. Meanwhile, New York's Aaron Boone waited too long to get Luis Severino out of the game. The team's ace allowed seven hits and six ERs in just three innings. Can the Yankees stay alive in Game 4? Boone said the only choice is to immediately erase the drubbing from their minds. "No choice but to flush," Boone said in his postgame press conference. "The good thing around (Game 3) is it's one game, and as awful of a night as it was for us, we got to turn the page, and (Game 4 is) obviously do or die." Rick Porcello (17-7, 4,28 ERA) and CC Sabathia (9-7, 3.65 ERA) are the Game 4 starters. Porcello bounced back from a poor 2017 season (11-17) to win 17 games. This will be his first start of the 2018 postseason, although he did give up one hit while retiring two batters in a relief stint in Game 1. "This is what it's all about," Porcello said in a press conference. "You get an opportunity to have the ball in Yankee Stadium, Game 4, this is the culmination of the entire season and leads up to your opportunities in the postseason. So I'm definitely looking forward to that and giving us a chance to win." Sabathia hasn't pitched since Sep 27, when he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Tampa Bay Rays in a 12-1 win. The 38-year-old vet has pitched much better at home with a 3.12 ERA, compared to a 4.23 road ERA (Yanks were 10-5 in his home starts). Did the Game 3 rout crush the Yankees? I seriously doubt that. In fact, I have to wonder just how Boston can help avoiding a letdown? The 29-year-old Porcello has never recorded a postseason victory, going 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA in 12 career appearances (just four starts). He is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in four postseason outings with the Red Sox. Meanwhile, the veteran Sabathia is well-versed in postseason pressure due to 23 appearances (22 starts), while compiling a 10-6 record and 4.20 ERA. What's more, he's 6-0 with a 3.32 ERA. in 11 ALDS appearances (10 starts). This series is headed back to Fenway! Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 52 | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Skins/Saints (8:15 EST). The Saints will be opening up the playbook today in an attempt to get QB Drew Brees at least 201 passing yards. Brees is on the cusp of becoming the league’s all time passing leader and I look for the veteran pivot to put on a show in front of the home town crowd today. So that means that the 2-1 Redskins, who come out rested after their bye week, and QB Alex Smith will be forced to match pace. And that suits Smith just fine. So far the veteran has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 767 yards with four TD’s and one INT. Smith has gotten plenty of help as well from RB Adrian Peterson, who is enjoying a resurgence in the Nation’s capital, so far with 236 yards and three TD’s. Brees so far has 75.8 percent of his passes so far this year to go along with 1,295 passing yards with eight TD’s and no INT’s. He’s going to benefit greatly today as well from the return of bruising back Mark Ingram. The combo of Ingram and Alvin Kamara makes the Saints offense extremely dangerous, as opposing defenses are forced to stay honest. I’m not expecting a lot of defense being played by either side. Not that New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 31 games after a straight up victory of more than 14 points, while Washington has seen the total go over nine of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout, one which is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry team’s has its hands on the ball last. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -119 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cle Indians at 1:35 ET. The Cleveland Indians lost the first two games of their ALDS to the Astros in Houston, 7-2 and 3-1. That's nothing to be ashamed of, as the Astros went 8-1 at home during their run to last year's World Series title, so that makes Houston 10-1 at home in the postseason since 2017. However, if Cleveland.hopes to have any chance of getting back in this series, it MUST wake up its dormant offense. The Indians finished 3rd in the major leagues in hits during the regular season, 2nd in team BA (.259), 3rd in scoring (5.05 RPG) and 4th in OPS (.767). However, they have managed just six hits (five singles and a HR by Francisco Lindor), to go along with four walks and 24 strikeouts while dropping the first two contests of the best-of-five series and totaling only three runs. Houston’s Alex Bregman has homered in each game of the series (three RBI) and teammate Marwin Gonzalez has recorded five hits in seven ABs, after hitting .247 during the regular season. The Game 3 pitching matchup features Dallas Keuchel (12-11, 3.74 ERA) going up against Mike Clevinger (13-8, 3.02 ERA). Keuchel did finish over .500 after a slow start to the 2018 season but he did not finish the regular season strong down the stretch. Keuchel was just 1-1 with a 5.76 ERA in his last five starts (Houston went 2-3). The lefty won two games in both the 2015 and 2017 postseasons and sits 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in eight postseason appearances (seven starts). As for Clevinger, his W-L record (13-8) and ERA (3.02) look fine but the Indians were just 16-16 in his 32 starts this season, leaving him minus-$786 against the moneyline. In Clevinger's three-year career, he has never started a postseason game. He has made six relief appearances in the postseason and is saddled with a 6.43 ERA in those games (a total of just seven innings). Keuchel is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in eight career appearances against Cleveland but that includes him allowing six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA) in two starts against the Indians in 2018. Clevinger is 1-3 with a 3.98 ERA in four career starts against the Astros, including 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 2018. The Astros finished September on an 8-2 run and have carried it over to the postseason (10-2 overall run) but manager A.J. Hinch does not expect his team to slow down. “This is not our first playoff series,” he told reporters. “We know it’s not over.”Meanwhile, Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after Saturday's 3-1 loss, “We just need to find a way to win Monday. I’m guessing that Houston will enjoy their off-day more than we will. Other than that, show up on Monday and play for our baseball life. Nobody wants to go home.” Houston was MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24, outscoring opponents 5.23-to-3.04 RPG. however, Cleveland was a strong 49-32 at home, averaging 5.43 RPG. Clevinger was 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 17 home starts this season and was outstanding overall in his last 10 starts of the regular season overall, going 6-1 with a 1.76 ERA (Indians were 8-2). This is "do-or-die" for Cleveland and note that Houston was only 3-6 on the road in the 2017 postseason. Cleveland 'lives' to 'fight' another day. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 152 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* SNF MAGIC is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:20 EST). Both teams got back into the win column last week. Each will be as equally hungry this week for another victory. I’m expecting an all out war until the final whistle. Dallas enters off a 26-24 home win over Detroit last week to even its recent at 2-2. RB Ezekiel Elliot was unstoppable, going for 152 yards rushing, four catches for 88 yards and also a TD. QB Dak Prescott was 17 of 27 for 255 yards and two TD’s. On the defensive side, Cowboys DE DeMarcus Lawrence had three sacks last week. Houston is still on the ropes despite last week’s victory, sitting at 1-3. DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT in an exhausting 37-34 OT win over Indianapolis. De’Andre Hopkins had 169 yards and a TD. I’ll point out though that Houston has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-6 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival (also note that it’s a poor 8-9 ATS In its last 17 at home), while Dallas has in fact excelled in this position by going 10-7 ATS in its last 17 on the road (despite being 0-2 ATS this year) and 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one which comes out on top. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | 5-6 | Win | 165 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 8:05 ET. The Dodgers lost the 2017 World Series in seven games and entered the 2018 season having won five straight NL titles. Yes, LA stumbled to a 16-26 start to open the current season but the Dodgers are playing their best baseball of the season at just the right time. They captured the NL West with a 5-2 win over the Rockies in Game No. 163 this past Monday and are now on the verge of reaching the NLCS for the third consecutive year, after beating the Braves 6-0 and 3-0 in this NLDS matchup. The Dodgers have dominated the series by hitting five HRs (led the NL with 235 HRs this season, setting a franchise record), while their pitchers have not allowed a run OR a walk! Starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Clayton Kershaw have combined for 15 scoreless innings, as LA is now 21-9 since Sep 1. The Braves entered 2018 off three consecutive 90-loss years, so the team's 90-72 record (won NL East by games eight games), came as quite a surprise. However, the team's lack of experience is showing so far, with no runs scored and just nine hits, while not a single batter has even been able to draw a walk. Atlanta is 0-for-6 with RISP for the series and the Braves return home for Game 3 having scored fewer than two runs in SIX of their last seven contests! Game 3's pitching matchup will feature LA's Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA), while the Braves will turn to lefty Sean Newcomb (12-9, 3.90 ERA). LA's starting staff has been hit hard by injuries this season but rookie Buehler has been a constant in a the rotation since late April He has posted a 2.31 ERA in 23 starts (he allowed five runs in one relief appearance July 25 at Philly) while holding opposing hitters to a .185 batting average and a .531 OPS. He owns a 1.55 ERA with just 41 hits allowed over 75 1/3 innings in his last 12 starts (87 Ks). Buehler defeated Atlanta 7-3 at home back on June 8, surrendering one run and two hits in 5 1/3 innings in his only career starts vs Atlanta. The Braves planned to start Kevin Gausman in Game 3 but after seeing the Dodgers succeed against right-handers in the first two games, they decided to turn to Newcomb. After all, he came within one strike of tossing a no-hitter vs Los Angeles back on July 29. However, the 25-year-old struggled after that outing, giving up five or more runs four times in his next eight starts (he went 2-4 but the team 4-4), before finishing the season with 5 2/3 scoreless innings. Newcomb did work two impressive innings of relief in Game 1, allowing one hit with two strikeouts while throwing 17 of his 25 pitches for strikes. Yes, Buehler's been outstanding but he is a rookie. Can the LA pitching staff really keep it up? After all, the Dodgers are the first team since the 1921 New York Yankees to open a postseason series with back-to-back shutouts. Sure, the Braves are batting .145 in the two playoff games and have one extra-base hit, but Atlanta did average 4.83 RPG this season at home. I just have to side with the Braves here, if for no other reason than the "due theory." Actually, the Braves are OVERDUE! Good luck…Larry |
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