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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Astros are 4-2 off a shutout loss this season and 16-7 the last three seasons in this very situation. A stunning 7-0 defeat in Game 1 should only have them stronger for Game 2 when they'll send out Verlander, who is 4-0 in his postseason career against the Yankees including a pair of wins in the 2017 ALCS. Verlander lost his last start, which came on short rest. He has not dropped consecutive decisions even one time this year. Houston is 25-11 in his 36 starts, an individual campaign which could produce another Cy Young. Verlander is 11-4 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. When he pitched here in Game 1 of the LDS, he didn't allow a run in seven innings and gave up just one hit. The Astros home record this year is 63-22. They don't lose back to back home games often. They did lose three in a row to Oakland last month. But before that it happened only three times all year and not since June. James Paxton is the Game 2 starter for the Yankees. The Yanks have won 12 straight times with Paxton on the mound. But he wasn't especially great in either of the last two and this is his toughest assignment of the season. The Astros are 21-5 the last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-12-19 | Yankees v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON For the second time in the last three years, it will be the Astros meeting the Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Two years ago, Houston prevailed in a seven game series that saw the home team go 7-0. Fortunately for the Astros, they once again have the homefield edge. The only time that the Yanks had to come to Minute Maid Park in 2019 was back in April. They were swept in that three-game series. Before winning Game 3 over Minnesota in the LDS, New York had lost 10 of 12 playoff road games. They are just 2-12 their last 14 road games in LCS play including the 0 for 4 in Houston back in 2017. We suppose the only question mark with the Astros going into Game 1 would be Zack Grienke facing this potent Yankees lineup. Greinke did not pitch well in Game 3 of the LDS vs. Tampa Bay where he gave up three home runs and six runs total in a 10-3 loss. But that's not something we usually see from him and certainly its even less common to see Greinke turn in two bad starts in a row. He pitched well the two times he faced NY in the regular season. In 12 2/3 innings, he allowed only three runs. Greinke has lost just once at home this year. For the Yankees, Tanaka often struggles on the road where his ERA is above 6.00. He got to pitch at home in the LDS. The Yankees are 5-7 this year as underdogs of +125 to +175 on the road. Houston is an impressive 21-4 after a day off. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS We think it's a little interesting that it's Washington favored to win the NLCS. After all, the Nationals were not expected to be here. They appeared dead in Game 5 vs. the Dodgers, down 3-0, but shocking back to back home runs off Clayton Kershaw brought them back to life and allowed them to win in extra innings. Earlier that day, St. Louis pounded Atlanta 13-1, becoming the first team in postseason history to score 10 runs in the first inning. The Cardinals are the ones with homefield advantage in the series and that's huge for a starting rotation whose individual members almost all pitch better here. Miles Mikolas is up first. In his only LDS start (Game 1), his team got the win thanks to five solid innings where Mikolas allowed only one run on three hits. He also threw a scoreless inning of relief in Game 4. He has a 2.41 ERA his past three starts and a 3.01 ERA/1.05 WHIP at home this season. Mikolas got to face Washington twice in the regular season and he ended up allowing just four runs in 12 innings. The Cardinals don't give up many runs at home (just 3.6 per game) so them getting handed homefield advantage is a big deal. Anibal Sanchez is the Game 1 starter for the Nationals. He is 2-4 in eight career starts vs. St. Louis and took a loss against them back in April. While the starting pitching matchup may seem close to even, the Cardinals have a substantial edge in the bullpen. Really good value on the home team for Game 1. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA It's come down to a winner-take-all game between the Cardinals and Braves. After splitting two games in Atlanta, the same thing happened in St. Louis. The Cardinals needed 10 innings to win Game 4. Interestingly, the team that has been trailing entering the 8th inning has won three of the four games. That includes both Cardinals victories. The two games St. Louis won saw them score five or more runs. The two that they lost saw them score 1 total. The problem for Game 5 is they are facing a pitcher they failed to score any runs against and that's Mike Foltynewicz, who previously started Game 2. Foltynewicz outdueled Jack Flaherty, which is not easy to do. But Foltynewicz now has a 1.51 ERA and 0.82 WHIP his last seven starts. He's allowed 0 or 1 run in five of his last six. It's five total runs allowed his last 40 innings. Flaherty allowed all three runs in the Game 2 loss. He does have slightly better numbers than Foltynewicz in his last seven starts and certainly the better numbers overall. But the issue is that Game 5 takes place in Atlanta. Flaherty's numbers go up on the road and the team actually has a losing record in his away starts (8-10). Atlanta is a good home team and easily could have put this series away already. They finally do so Wednesday. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-04-19 | Rays v. Astros -215 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on HOUSTON With the best rotation in the game, it seems like everyone is picking the Astros to at least make it to the World Series. They definitely appear to have the decided edge for Game 1 of the LDS against Tampa Bay as Justin Verlander will be pitching with plenty of rest. Verlander is likely to finish in the top two of the Cy Young voting this year. His main competition will be teammate Gerrit Cole. Verlander has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 34 starts this year, 24 of those resulting in Houston wins. The opposing pitcher for Game 1, Tyler Glasnow, actually has a lower ERA (1.78) and comparable WHIP (0.89) but in roughly one-third the starts Verlander has made. He missed a bulk of the season due to injury and also averages far less innings per start than does Verlander. While Houston has been off since Sunday, Tampa Bay obviously had to win the Wild Card Game to get to this point. This week has seen them go from Toronto to Oakland to Houston in a five-day span, which is a tough stretch, especially seeing as they're now matched up with one of the top two teams in baseball. The Astros were 60-21 at home in the regular season. They are 30-14 in day games (104-48 L3 seasons). Go with the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the DODGERS Two hot teams meet in this NLDS as the Dodgers have won nine straght and the Nationals have won seven straight. Washington got here thanks to a fielding gaffe by Milwaukee's right fielder in the bottom of the eighth Tuesday night. That one error allowed three runs to score and the Nats to prevail 4-3 in the Wild Card Game. Thankfully, we had the Brewers on the run line (+1.5). We'll look to fade Washington again tonight as it'll take a lot more than an error to get by the juggernaut that is the Dodgers. Consider this: LA is 59-22 at home this year. They are the clear favorites to win the NL pennant as they have by far the best pitching in the game today. They led the NL in ERA at home, on the road and overall. They also have best defensive efficiency of any team. They also scored more runs than every other National League team. Really, there isn't a single category where this team isn't the best. They don't even feel the need to go with Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 as it'll be Walker Buehler instead. That's fine by us as the Dodgers won 20 of Buehler's 30 starts in the regular season. He has a 2.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this year. His ERA in two starts vs. the Nationals was 2.92. Pat Corbin will be the Game 1 starter for Washington, not a bad option, but he's facing the superior lineup. Corbin's numbers noticeably rose on the road and that left him with an 8-9 team start record in those starts. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OAKLAND This year's AL Wild Card Game features two franchises not exactly known for being deep in the pocketbooks, but the A's and Rays are both rich in pitching and most are going to expect a low-scoring game here. Oakland really surged in the second half as it won 97 games for the second consecutive season. They were just 37-36 on June 16th, but have gone 60-29 ever since. That's impressive. Starting this winner-take-all game for them will be Sean Manaea, an excellent choice in our opinion. Manaea is undefeated since returning from shoulder surgery, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA in five games. He has 30 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings while giving up only four runs and 16 hits. He's walked only seven batters, so you're looking at a 0.78 WHIP as well. Tampa Bay scored the fewest runs of any American League playoff team, so it's a good matchup here for the Athletics, who get the game at home as well. They were 52-29 at home in the regular season. Three teams had more home victories than the A's - the Dodgers, Houston and the Yankees. It's interesting that there were only five games in which TB was a road dog of +125 to +175. They had a losing record in those games. Charlie Morton starts here for the Rays and he's actually been one of the more consistent starters in the AL. But his WHIP is noticeably higher on the road. The bullpens are going to play a role here, but we just don't know where the runs are going to come from for the Rays. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-29-19 | Reds -115 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note. AAA |
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09-28-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA It took awhile, but the Phillies snapped their six-game losing streak last night by beating the Marlins 5-4 in 15 innings. That result is something we'd called for as Philadelphia came into Friday below .500 for the first time all season. We made the case that Miami is an ideal opponent for them to wrap the year up against and that mindset hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. The Marlins are the NL's worst team in just about every department as they are 56-104 and have been outscored by 188 runs. The Phillies at least have the motivation of trying to finish above .500 for the year, which they can do by winning the final two games. After a 15-inning loss, Miami is hardly likely to come back with a strong effort on the road. Starter Caleb Smith pitched well in two previous starts vs. the Phillies this year, but both were all the way back in April. Recently, Smith has struggled with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last seven starts. He's also struggled most of the year on the road. So have the Marlins as a team as their record away from home is now 26-53 including 9-24 as an underdog of +125 to +175. The Phillies Zach Eflin should have a solid start tonight. Prior to getting beat up by Washington on Monday, Eflin hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in six straight starts. The Phillies are 24-14 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 48-28 in that role since 2017. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia wraps up a very disappointing season this weekend at home. This was supposed to be a playoff year after they went out and signed Bryce Harper. But instead, they'll finish with a very similar record to 2018. In fact, they are actually now a game below .500 (79-80), thanks to a six-game losing streak which is their second longest all season. But at least they get to face Miami to end the year. The Marlins are one of four 100+ loss teams in baseball and the only one in the National League. They have been out of contention from the start and no one has disputed that it's they who have been the NL's worst all year long. Vince Velasquez goes tonight for Philly. His team start record is 12-10. That included four wins in a row prior to him losing in Cleveland on Sunday. We actually went against him in that start, noting how he might "cool off." But three of the four runs he allowed in that game were unearned. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR for the Marlins with five of those losses coming in his last six outings. The only exception was his last start. But that was at home. On the road, you're looking at a 2-7 TSR and a 7.27 ERA. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants -122 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the GIANTS This has been a tightly contested series thus far. Colorado won Tuesday's game 8-5, but not before the teams combined to use a MLB-record 25 different pitchers in a 16-inning affair. Then last night, the Giants gained a measure of revenge by winning in walkoff fashion, 2-1. For Colorado, a team with nothing to play for, it'll be tough to come back with today's game taking place in the afternoon. It's not like the Rockies are a good road team either. They're actually quite horrible as last night's loss dropped them to 28-52 away from Coors Field. Kyle Freeland gets the start for them here and he hasn't been effective all year. He's 3-11 in 21 starts with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He'd missed about a month before returning last Friday and pitching just two innings against the Dodgers. While the team has won two of his three starts against San Francisco this year, we can't say that Freeland has been all that effective in them. It's pretty crazy to think that Colorado made the playoffs last year. They very well could end up having the biggest drop in wins (of any team) this year. The Giants are also out of it, but they're playing for manager Bruce Bochy this week as he's set to retire. Thursday starter Tyler Beede has had a pretty good September with a 3.80 ERA in four starts. It was looking even better before he ran into a good Atlanta team last weekend. But the Rockies don't hit like the Braves. Not on the road at least. They are 28th in runs scored on the road, ahead of only Detroit and Miami. They are also last in team batting average (.230) and 29th (next to last) in OPS at .679. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-25-19 | A's -204 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on OAKLAND So it now looks like the A's will be going with Frankie Montas as the starter tonight. Originally, it was going to be Michael Fiers. Montas returns under the most auspicious of circumstances as he's coming off an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Perhaps the drugs were doing their job because Montas was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before getting caught. You hope the results don't go away as a result. Montas has faced the Angels three times this year and is 2-0. This is a really critical spot for him to step into as the A's lost last night, reducing their lead for the Wild Card to a half game over Tampa and one game over Cleveland. (Only two of those three teams make it). Fortunately, it may not matter how Montas performs tonight. Because if Andrew Heaney continues pitching the way he has of late for the Angels, Montas will have plenty of cushion. Heaney has given up six runs in back to back starts while allowing a total of five home runs. He's had some good stretches this year, but the only start against Oakland saw him give up five runs. Note that the A's have dropped two straight games now. The last time they lost three in a row was July. They rebound tonight. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-25-19 | Red Sox -139 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON Anytime the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, the season is ultimately failure in Boston. So chalk up 2019 in the failure category as last year's World Series champs won't even be going back to the postseason this year. But most teams in the league would still love to be as good as Boston is. The Red Sox will likely still end up winning 85 games this year and they have a +75 run differential. That's a lot better than Texas, who is heading towards its third straight losing season. The Red Sox beat the Rangers yesterday, 12-10, in the opener of what is their final series on the road. Winning on the road hasn't been the problem for Boston this year. They are actually 45-34 in all road games. It's a losing record at Fenway Park that ultimately hurt them the most. The fact Boston won yesterday despite a rare bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez is good news. The Red Sox scored all 12 of their runs in the first five innings. They only homered once. This park in Arlington can be kind to hitters and the man starting for Texas tonight, Kolby Allard, knows that all too well as he sports a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three home starts. Rick Porcello is having a bad year for the Red Sox, but the veteran should be able to outpitch the rookie Allard here. Boston has won five of Porcello's last six starts on the road and they've also won the last five times he's gone against the Rangers. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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09-24-19 | Rockies v. Giants -169 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Rockies and Giants are both playing out the string. But at least the Giants have some reason to celebrate as they honor departing manager Bruce Bochy, the longest active tenured skipper in the sport. They've also got Madison Bumgarner on the mound and that's a sizable advantage on the field. It may not have been Bumgarner's best year and his recent results certainly haven't been up to par. But it's still been a decent year overall. Bumgarner has been especially good here at home where he is 6-2 and has a 2.72 ERA/0.92 WHIP. He's made 18 starts total here and the Giants have won 12 of them. The Rockies are not a good road team. Their record away from home is 27-51 and they score a lot less than at Coors Field. The drop is more than two full runs per game. It doesn't help having Jeff Hoffman and his 6.71 ERA/1.62 WHIP on the mound either. It's somewhat shocking how sharp the decline has been for the Rockies this year. It's a 24 win drop, these last six games nothwithstanding. If you're San Francisco, what's not to like about Bumgarner going against this team? Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-23-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -166 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO We have a record-tying four 100+ loss teams in MLB this year, three of them hailing from the American League. The least surprising member of the quartet would have to be Baltimore, who we won't hesitate to buck here. The Orioles lost 115 games a season ago, so their 51 wins this year actually represent improvement from 2018. Yet there is no denying this remains one of the worst teams in baseball. Toronto has lost 93 games this year, but is actually significantly better than all the 100+ loss teams as well as some of the 90+ loss ones as well. At least if you go by run differential as the Blue Jays have only been outscored by 101 runs this year. That may sound like a lot, but there are actually eight teams across baseball with worse run differentials. Baltimore has been outscored by 264 runs, easily the second worst overall and only ahead of Detroit. For today's series opener, the Blue Jays start Clay Buchholz, who knows the Orioles quite well from spending all that time in Boston. Buchholz actually struggled agianst the O's last week, but the Jays won the game 11-10 and swept the series. Baltimore made an overnight pitching change here going from Dylan Bundy to Chandler Shepard, which is a downgrade based on Shepard's lone appearance, last week vs. the Blue Jays in which he gave up three runs in four innings. The Orioles did win on Sunday, but haven't won two straight since August. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-22-19 | Phillies v. Indians -124 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND It's going to be a busy night in Cleveland with both the Browns and Indians hosting big games. With all due respect to the Browns, who are hosting their 1st Sunday night game in 11 years, the Indians' game is much more important to the immediate future of the city. That's because with just seven games to go in the regular season, the Tribe finds itself one game out of the Wild Card. They lost yesterday (9-4 to the Phillies) while the Rays once again beat the Red Sox in extra innings. With only two series remaining after tonight, Cleveland simply cannot afford to fall two games back. They know the Rays next series is against the Yankees, so there's potential to make up some ground there. But first, it's time to handle their own business, which means beating a Phillies team that is basically out of contention at this point. The good news is Cleveland has gone 40-23 this year off a loss. More good news: their starter Adam Plutko has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts as he's allowed just two runs in each. Plutko also has a 0.91 WHIP at home. The team is 6-2 when he starts at Progressive Field. Phillies starter Velasquez may also have a 3-0 TSR in his last three starts, but a big difference is a 1.86 WHIP in them. So the Phillies have been awfully lucky to win those games. The fact that this is Cleveland's home finale adds to the motivation. The Phillies have a losing road record on the year and we can't see them winning two straight here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-21-19 | Phillies v. Indians -165 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND It seems as if none of the three teams in the AL Wild Card chase are ever going to lose. Oakland has won 9 of 10. Two games behind the A's, fighting for the final spot, are Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Rays are 10-4 their last 14 games while the Indians (who we'll be playing here) have won 9 of 11. The Tribe's latest win came last night over the Phillies, 5-2, as they jumped on Drew Smyly early. Tonight, they are likely to do the same to Jason Vargas, who has struggled since making the jump from New York to Philly. Vargas' ERA and WHIP his last three starts are 6.35 and 1.50 respectively. No matter which team he was with, the road has always been a problem as his ERA is 5.06 there. Vargas has lasted just three innings his past two starts. Cleveland counters with Plesac, who just turned in a complete game shutout in his last trip to the mound. The team is 8-2 at home this year with him on the mound. While technically still alive for a Wild Card spot in the NL, the Phillies pretty much know their fate is sealed at this point as they are five games back. Truthfully, we never thought they'd get there anyway. An odd but perhaps useful trend here is that the Indians are a perfect 11-0 this season at home when the total is 10 or 10.5. The total opened at 10 and has since moved to 10.5 for this Interleague matchup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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09-20-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -119 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs badly need this game as they've fallen behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race (one game). Were they to miss out on the playoffs, and the Brewers get in, it would upset many in the analytics community considering the Cubs have a +114 run differential on the year (2nd best in the whole National League) while Milwaukee is -21. But the Brewers continue to take advantage of an advantageous schedule while the Cubs have now lost three straight home games, two to the Reds and then yesterday in extra innings to the first place Cardinals. We're not used to seeing the Cubs drop games in Wrigley; their 51 home victories are 4th most in baseball. Because of an injury to Cole Hamels, he's being skipped in the rotation here and Alec Mills will start in his place. Friday will mark just the third start for Mills and first since July. (He's been working out of the bullpen ever since). His first two starts were fine as he gave up five runs in 10 1/3 innings. He had 11 strikeouts and just two walks. But the "real story" here is the poor history that Cardinals starter Michael Wacha has with the Cubs. In 19 career appearances against them, Wacha's ERA is 6.68. He hasn't pitched that well on the road either, no matter whom he's facing, as his record is 4-8 with a 1.52 WHIP. St. Louis had been 0-6 here in Chicago prior to winning yesterday. You have to think the Cubs bounce back here. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-19-19 | Giants v. Red Sox -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on BOSTON This series has drawn attention due to the fact the Giants have Mike Yazstremski on their roster, the grandson of legendary Boston Hall of Famer Carl Yazstremski. There must be something about the last name and Fenway Park because the Giants have surprisingly won the first two games of this series. It was a one-run win, 7-6 in 15 innings, on Tuesday. That has been the Giants "M.O." in 2019 as their a MLB-best 37-15 in one-run games. It was a far more decisive win last night, 11-3, as they scored seven runs in the final two innings. The Giants success in one-run games this year has masked that this really isn't a very good team as they've still been outscored by 69 runs. For Boston, the playoffs are basically no longer possible, but winning a home game should be a motivating factor. They've lost five in a row at Fenway Park, which you don't see very often. They've got to face Madison Bumgarner this afternoon, a challenge for sure, but he's failed to beat Boston in two previous tries. The Giants have also lost Bumgarner's last two starts, both at home, to last place teams (Miami, Pittsburgh). Before those, he gave up six runs in a loss at St. Louis. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched masterfully in his last start for Boston, striking out 12 and giving up just one run and four hits in a 2-1 Red Sox win in Philadelphia. That improved his team start record to 23-8 this season. Rodriguez also can claim to have allowed 0 or 1 runs five of his last six starts. Red Sox avoid the sweep here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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09-18-19 | Padres v. Brewers -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE The Brewers continue to handle their business as they've beaten the Padres two straight, pulling them into a tie for the Wild Card with the Cubs. Milwaukee was actually swept out in San Diego earlier in the year, but facing the Padres now has proven advantageous as not only do they have the homefield advantage, they're the only motivated side in this matchup. San Diego has lost six in a row now with three of those losses seeing them score just one run and the other three seeing them give up at least 10. That's a bad combo. Two of the games where they scored only one run have come here in this series and there's really no reason to expect they'll perform any better at the plate tonight. Milwaukee is 11-1 in its last 12 games as they've gotten hot at the perfect time. The starter for tonight, Adrian Houser, was the one who started the only loss in the L12 games. However, he should rebound nicely here vs. a team that's hitting only .205 in the last week. Houser has a 3.12 ERA his previous seven starts. As for Padres starter Dinelson Lamet, you're looking at an 0-4 team start record his last four outings. The Padres have also lost eight straight road games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-18-19 | Mets -153 v. Rockies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS We used the Mets yesterday and that worked out well as they were able to stay relevant in the Wild Card by beating Colorado 6-1. The Rockies had previous won six of seven, but it's still been a bad year, one that likely ends with them in last place in the NL West. Facing a team that has nothing left to play for, the Mets have to take advantage here as their playoff hopes remain slim. It's a four game deficit that they're still facing with only 11 left to play. You have to like that they have Noah Syndergaard pitching today. He's had Colorado's number in the past, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, though none of them have come here at Coors Field. A big key here is that Wilson Ramos will NOT catch for Syndergaard. In the 16 starts with Ramos as catcher, Syndergaard's ERA is 5.20. In the other 11, with either Nido or Rivera behind the plate, that number drops to 2.22. Just as encouraging as having Syndergaard pitching for the Mets is who will be starting opposite him for the Rockies. Jeff Hoffman just hasn't been very good. He has a 7.03 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 12 starts, one of which was against the Mets and he gave up six runs. Coincidentally, Syndergaard pitched that game for the Mets, a 6-1 win. The Mets offense should continue to take advantage of the opportunities provided by Coors Field and Syndegaard should handle the Rockies in short order. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-18-19 | Nationals -158 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -158 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Cardinals now have two teams hot on their heels as the Brewers and Cubs are both just two games back in the NL Central race. After scoring just two runs in each of the first two games here vs. Washington, you can imagine that Max Scherzer is the last sight they wanted to see when they look out at the mound today. Scherzer is from St. Louis and has pitched very well here at Busch Stadium in the past. Four starts here have resulted in a 1.44 ERA and a 35-4 strikeout to walk ratio. He's allowed just four runs in 25 innings. While he missed about a month on the DL, Scherzer has an 11-2 team start record since the start of June. He's also gone 7-1 in 11 road starts this year with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Those are all obviously outstanding numbers and what you want to see when taking the Nationals this afternoon. That's the call here as despite Adam Wainwright's own recent pitching prowess, we don't see St. Louis being able to hang with the favored Nats in this spot. Only a handful of teams have a better scoring margin on the road than Washington, all of them first place teams. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-17-19 | Mets -153 v. Rockies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS From July 25th until August 10th, the Mets played 16 games. They won 15 of them. That run had them thinking Wild Card, but that is now getting more and more unlikely. Since that 15-1 run, the team has basically played .500 ball and is actually now one game under after last night's loss to Colorado. Of course, during that 15-1 run, the Mets were playing nothing but bad teams. Colorado is a bad team as they are in last place in the NL West with a 66-85 record, despite a four-game win streak. One big inning saved the Rockies last night as they scored six runs in the bottom half of the fourth. Don't look for that to happen again though. Not against Marcus Stroman, who they'll face tonight at Coors Field. Stroman has made eight starts for the Mets. The team has gone 5-3 in them and he was completely dominant last Thursday in an 11-1 win over the Diamondbacks. In that start, Stroman allowed just one run and four hits. He has previously pitched here at Coors this season, back on June 1st when he was still with the Blue Jays. He pitched well, giving up just three earned runs. We shouldn't have to tell you that the Rockies are giving up a major league worst 6.9 runs/game at home. Tonight's starter Tim Melville has negatively impacted that number in limited time, giving up nine runs in his last five innings pitched here. He has an ugly 9.28 ERA and 2.06 WHIP his last three starts overall. The Mets bounce back with a win on Tuesday. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-17-19 | Phillies v. Braves -178 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -178 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on Atlanta Atlanta has already assured itself a spot in the playoffs. Now all that's left to do is to nail down the NL East for a second year in a row and possibly catch the Dodgers for homefield advantage. They certainly would appear to have a favorable matchup with the Phillies on Tuesday as they look to achieve those goals. Philadelphia is technically still alive for the Wild Card, but things are now looking rather bleak after a losing homestand left them 4.5 games back and needing to jump two teams. Making matters worse is that Vince Velasquez has to face the Braves tonight. Velasquez has never beaten Atlanta in 10 career starts. He's 0-6 with a 5.36 ERA against them. His one start vs. the Braves in 2019 yielded four runs as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has not only been lights out lately for the Braves, he's had tremendous success when facing Philly. Five career starts against the Phillies have produced a 1.42 ERA for Keuchel. His overall results of late have been even more impressive. His last six starts have all been wins for the Braves (with Keuchel going 5-0 with one no decision) and he has a 0.97 ERA during that time. He's allowed just four runs in 37 innings and has 35 strikeouts. Tonight's pitching matchup totally favors the Braves and all other signs point to them winning as well. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-16-19 | Orioles -132 v. Tigers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALTIMORE The Orioles being both favored and endorsed by us is a rare situation, but it happens here as they face the one team that has a worse record. That Baltimore is favored like this ON THE ROAD speaks volumes on the current state of baseball in Detroit. The Tigers are 44-104 (Orioles are 49-100) and have been outscored by almost 300 runs this season, which would be a new record for futility. Detroit is 4-19 as a home dog of +125 to +175 among other things. They're being outscored by 2.7 runs/game at home! This line also speaks to the pitching matchup as John Means will go for the Orioles. The one reliable starter in the rotation, Means has given up 2 ER or less in five straight starts. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in the last three. For what it's worth, Baltimore did win the only time this year that they were road favorites of -125 to -175 ... that was yesterday's 8-2 win here in Detroit! Look for them to make it three of four over the Tigers as their hitters should have a field day going against struggling Tigers starter Alexander, who has been hit hard his last three starts, all of which are losses. He has allowed 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings and also given up 27 hits. If there ever was a spot to like Baltimore, it would be this game. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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09-15-19 | Dodgers -135 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers have already clinched the division, now it's just a matter of earning home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. They're already well on their way on the National League side, holding a three game advantage over the Braves. But they're behind both the Yankees and Astros of the American League for the best overall record in baseball. A 3-0 loss to the Mets yesterday didn't help matters, but we can't see them losing two in a row. The Mets are of course just trying to get into the playoffs as they are three back of the Wild Card currently. A big key in earning the win last night was having Jacob deGrom starting. Tonight, the Mets are left with Zach Wheeler, who isn't a bad pitcher by any means. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to match Walker Buehler, who is in the top 10 among NL starters in wins (6th), strikeouts (10th) and ERA (8th). He's 1st with a 1.02 WHIP. In three of his last four starts, Buehler has not allowed a single run (4 of his L6 as well). Over his last seven starts, you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Wheeler just can't match those numbers even though he's allowed only 1 ER in three straight starts with the team winning all three times. The Dodgers are 34-19 off a loss this year, including 4-1 if they were shutout. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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09-14-19 | Braves v. Nationals -118 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON One could argue that the Nationals are having every bit the good season that the Braves are. After all, they have a slightly better run differential than Atlanta. Washington has gone 62-34 overall since May 24th. However, they have had one heck of a problem beating their division rival and that problem continued last night with a 5-0 shutout loss. That was the sixth time in the last seven meetings they lost to the Braves. It was also the eighth time the Nats have been shutout this year. Now 9.5 games back, there's virtually zero shot Washington can catch Atlanta in the division, but they still lead the Wild Card and preserving that advantage is priority number one right now. Despite the stakes being so high for both teams, they are starting pitchers that are question marks this afternoon. Mike Foltynewicz has pitched well since a stint in the minors, but it was Washington that sent him there when they scored eight runs on him, in only four innings, back in late June. Austin Voth is the starter for the Nationals. This is only his 2nd time starting since July. The first was against these Braves last Saturday. He gave up two solo home runs in four innings. We expect him to pitch better at home this time. The Nationals are also 7-3 off their last 10 losses. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-13-19 | White Sox v. Mariners -129 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -129 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEATTLE It's not all too often you'll find the Mariners favored on the moneyline, but when the White Sox come to town, the oddsmakers will have to oblige. Though we're hesitant to take any favorite that's dropped seven of nine, let alone one that's in last place, this is the time to make an exception. Chicago is a team that's much worse than most realize. They've scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this year and as a result have been outscored by 140 runs. Why is that significant? Well, a team with a -140 run differential at this point of the season is "expected" to have only 58 wins. The White Sox are 64-82. Not a good record, but it should be worse. That six-game gap between how many they've actually won and what run differential says they should have won is actually tied the second largest in baseball. Seattle has been every bit as bad this year, but gets a break tonight in facing Dylan Covey. It's not just that the White Sox have lost Covey's last five starts or that he has a 8.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP for the year (1-7 in 11 starts overall). In his last three starts, Covey has been clobbered to the tune of a 17.65 ERA and 2.31 WHIP! He's given up 17 runs in just over eight innings, including 12 his last 2 2/3. By comparison, Kikuchi is "Cy Young" for Seattle as he allowed just one run his last start. Chicago lost as a favorite each of the last two days, to the Royals no less, so we have every reason to doubt them here as underdogs. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-12-19 | Red Sox -142 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON If there was any doubt that the Red Sox playoff hopes were dead and buried, that was put to rest this week in Toronto where the reigning World Champs have lost two in a row, both as favorites. The losing streak has now hit five in a row and they are 10 games back of the Wild Card. In other words, "there's always next year!" But there's "always tomorrow" too and we do see Boston avoiding the sweep tonight. Making what has happened to the Red Sox in this series all the more embarrassing is that the Blue Jays had lost six in a row coming in. It was an 8-0 shutout Wednesday, but the good news there is that Toronto is just 1-5 after a shutout win this year. The Jays are hitting just .228 at home this year. Despite the fact they are going to miss the playoffs, Boston still has a +76 run differential, which is quite good. A "X-factor" in tonight's game is Red Sox starter Jhoulys Chacin, who Toronto has never faced as he'd always pitched in the National League before coming to Boston. Chacin has thrown three scoreless innings so far for the Sox, in two appearances, both against the Yankees. One was a start and he was perfect in two innings. Clay Buchholz starts for Toronto against his former team and his time has passed. He has just one win and a 5.31 ERA in eight starts. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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09-11-19 | Reds -139 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI The Reds didn't come through for us last night, but it's not as if it was a bad call. They led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but unfortunately that's when a Kyle Seager home run drastically altered the game. Seattle won 4-3, despite only four hits for the game. Betting against the Mariners here seems logical. It's been almost a month since they won two straight games. They'd lost six straight going into yesterday, including a humiliating 21-1 result on Sunday at the hands of Houston. Cincinnati isn't Houston, but they are a team that ranks in the top eight in all of baseball in runs allowed. Trevor Bauer took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning last night, which makes the final result all the more disappointing. Tonight it'll be Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has won five straight decisions and though he didn't win either of his last two, he allowed just 1 ER in 12+ innings. Gray also is 5-2 lifetime vs. Seattle with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts. Can't say we think much of Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a total of 11 runs his last two starts. The team has lost five of his last seven starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-11-19 | Nationals -142 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Washington had been red hot before running into Atlanta last weekend. They lost three of four games in that series, all but cooking their chances of catching the Braves in the NL East. Still, they're in the driver's seat for the Wild Card, but losing 5-0 to the Twins Tuesday night certainly didn't help the cause. We look for the Nationals to bounce back from that defeat as they send Stephen Strasburg to the mound tonight. Strasburg has been quite good of late, no surprise there. He has allowed a total of just five runs in his last four starts, which have spanned 27 innings. He didn't allow any runs in two of the four. Note that Minnesota was scoreless until the 7th inning last night and didn't even get a hit until the 5th. So this matchup sets up well for Strasburg. He's being opposed here by Martin Perez and unlike Jose Berrios last night, we don't feel Perez is up to the challenge. He did pitch shockingly well vs. Boston last week. But in his start before that one, he was tagged for eight runs by Detroit. Minnesota is only hitting .199 over the past week and that's a problem when facing Strasburg. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-10-19 | Cubs -153 v. Padres | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS We played the Cubs Monday night as they rolled to 10-2 win here in San Diego. We'll go with them again Tuesday. Yes, the Cubs have had all sorts of problems winning on the road this year (road record is 30-43) and that's why they are no sure thing right now to make the playoffs. But winning in San Diego ought not to be terribly difficult. Obviously, the Cubs made it look easy last night. With some key injuries to their everyday lineup, Nico Hoerner stepped up and delivered three hits and four RBI's, the second Cubs player since 1920 to do so in his MLB debut. Tonight, the team can likely lean on starter Jose Quintana. Though he allowed two home runs in his last start, Quintana still got the win and is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA/1.06 WHIP his last seven outings. He's also 9-1 over his last 12 starts. The Padres go with Bolanos, who just made his MLB debut last week. It was a tough loss as Bolanos only gave up two runs. But his offense scored only one run. That's par for the course as the Padres have scored only 11 runs in the last six games, never eclipsing three in any one game. The Cubs badly need to rack up some victories and this should be an easy one. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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09-10-19 | Reds -124 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI A seven-game homestand didn't go the way the Reds had hoped as they finished with a 3-4 record. But Seattle's just completed road trip was far worse. It ended with six straight losses, including a humiliating 21-1 defeat on Sunday (to the Astros), the punctuation mark on what has been a terrible season. So even though they're now the road team and the Mariners are at home, the Reds should win easily here. Trevor Bauer hasn't pitched as well as they'd hoped, but is still a better option than what Seattle will be sending out to the mound. Justus Sheffield has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three starts, even though he just threw five scoreless innings in his last one. That should tell you how bad the first two were. The Mariners are just 45-84 their last 129 games. Bauer has a long history of facing them. Not only did Seattle lose 21-1 on Sunday, they finished with only one hit! It was as bad a loss as any team has taken this MLB season. Seattle is just 4-10 vs. the National League and while Cincinnati doesn't have the best road record, they are 5-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-10-19 | Brewers -171 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee didn't have a hard time beating Miami last night. They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and when all was said and done, it was an 8-3 victory, which keeps them two back of the Wild Card. Tuesday should be a similarly easy win for the Brewers. Miami, who often struggles to score runs (last in NL), wasted a golden opportunity last night. They had the bases loaded four times and still managed to score only three runs. It's unlikely they have as many total bases in tonight's game. This is a big revenge spot for Brewers starter Chase Anderson as the last time he faced the Marlins, his team lost 16-0, at home! But Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in four previous starts here in Miami. The Brewers have now won four in a row and are the only team in this matchup with something to play for. The Marlins go with Hernandez on Tuesday. He's allowed 9 runs in 9 innings his last two starts. Both were on the road. While a better pitcher at home, the team is just 11-25 as a home dog of +125 to +175. The Marlins have the worst record and run differential in the National League. In a tight playoff race, the Brewers should be thankful to be playing them right now and will take full advantage of the opportunity. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-09-19 | Cubs -133 v. Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS If the Cubs ultimately end up missing the playoffs, the blame will be squarely placed on their poor road record, which is now 29-42 after they dropped three of four over the weekend in Milwaukee. They lost the last three days, so there's a real sense of urgency heading into this series opener with San Diego. The Padres are not a good team and frankly, the Cubs should beat them with ease. Yes, the Padres did win both Saturday and Sunday against the Rockies. But in the last five games they've scored a grand total of nine runs. The two starting pitchers for Monday are very much trending in different directions with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks sporting a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Since the All Star Break, he's given up two runs or less in 8 of 10 starts. Hendricks also has a 5-2 career record vs. San Diego with a 2.98 ERA. The Padres Cal Quantrill has an 0-3 TSR his last three starts with an 11.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Despite the injuries, if the Cubs can't win this one, then there's some real trouble in Wrigleyville as several teams are hot on their heels for that final Wild Card spot. San Diego is 14-33 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the last three seasons. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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09-07-19 | Phillies v. Mets -148 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS It wasn't easy, but the Mets beat the Phillies last night, 5-4, by drawing a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. They probably feel like it shouldn't have needed to get to that point as they led 4-2 going into the ninth, but closed Edwin Diaz failed to protect that lead. Ultimately though, things ended up going just as the Mets had hoped. Now, they look to make it four wins in five tries over the Phillies in the last two weeks and as an added bonus, they'll move ahead of them in the standings with a win here. Yes, these teams are now tied with matching 72-68 records. But the Phillies have lost three straight while the Mets have won five of their last seven. The Mets had a chance to sweep Philly last Sunday night with Marcus Stroman on the mound and failed. Stroman gets his second crack at the Phillies tonight. He actually pitched well last weekend, allowing just two runs in six innings. We like him a lot better than Drew Smyly, who has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this season. It was a better pitcher (Eflin) that Stroman was up against last Sunday. The Mets seemingly have the momentum right now and are 9-3 their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-07-19 | Angels -150 v. White Sox | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the ANGELS The Angels were able to come from behind and "steal one" from the White Sox last night, which has them in an excellent position to win two straight here in Chicago. LA came into this series in pretty rough shape as they'd just been swept in Oakland to fall to a season-low 11 games below .500. They found themselves down early to the White Sox last night and they were facing a 4-1 deficit as last as the seventh inning. But they were able to storm back against the embattled White Sox bullpen for the 5-4 victory. They were underdogs on the money line last night, but that's changed for tonight, likely due to the starting pitching matchup. Friday, they had to face the White Sox best pitcher, Lucas Giolito. Tonight it's Dylan Covey, who is not having a good season at all. Covey is 1-6 in 10 starts and has a 7.17 ERA/1.57 WHIP. The White Sox have lost his last four starts and he has a 21.59 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in the last three (no joke!). Andrew Heaney has done a pretty good job pitching for the Angels of late with a 2.37 ERA his last three starts. Back in July, he held Chicago to three runs in seven innings. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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09-06-19 | Rockies v. Padres -161 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -161 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO All is not well in Colorado right now as the Rockies are on a season-worst nine game losing streak. Offensively, they are unlikely to turn things around, at least while still on the road. Just expect an automatic decline in runs from them outside Coors Field. This season has seen them score 6.2 runs/game at home and only 4.3 on the road. We have little positives to report from the pitching department as well. During this nine-game slide, there have been four times where the Rockies have given up 10 or more runs. One of those was the last time Tim Melville pitched, an 11-4 loss to the Pirates. San Diego probably won't need to score much to win tonight. Lamet had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also held the Rockies to two runs and three hits the last time he faced them. The Padres were also swept in their last series (by Arizona), but that was on the road. At home, better results should be expected. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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09-06-19 | Angels v. White Sox -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the WHITE SOX The White Sox have the pitching edge tonight and that alone should be enough to defeat the floundering Angels at home. LA comes in on four-game losing streak as they were just swept up in Oakland. That has them 11 games below .500, something we have not seen from them in three years. Compounding problems is they have to face Lucas Giolito tonight. Giolito has been Chicago's best pitcher in 2019. They are 16-11 when he pitches and his individual numbers indicate he's probably due a better record than that. The last three have seen Giolito turn in a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP! Opposing him will be Dillon Peters, whose last three starts have been quite the opposite (7.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). It is very unlikely that Peters can keep his team in this one. While it's not often Chicago is favored like this, they are 9-2 at -125 to -175 this season. They win here. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-06-19 | Rangers v. Orioles -129 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE The Orioles aren't favored to win very often, but they are here and we expect them to step up and deliver. Texas did win last night's game, 3-1, but did so despite only five hits in their latest putrid effort at the plate. The last three games have seen the Rangers score only five runs and they've been held to three or less in eight of the last ten ballgames. The Rangers aren't a good road team (29-44), so even though Baltimore isn't very good anywhere, this is a good chance to pick up a rare win. Bundy will start; he's allowed 3 ER or less in five of his previous six outings. The Orioles are a respectable 3-3 in those games including a win as a +155 dog (against Tampa Bay) the last time Bundy started here at Camden Yards. Not sure we've seen enough of Brock Burke to make any definitive conclusions, but the Texas southpaw hasn't gotten much run support and it's hard to imagine him pitching any better than he has in his first three starts. Before last night's win, the Rangers were just 1-6 their last seven games here in Baltimore. Play on BALTIMORE AAA |
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09-04-19 | Angels v. A's -156 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The weekend saw the A's lose twice in the final at-bat at Yankee Stadium. Coming off that, they needed to rebound and that's exactly what they did Tuesday with a 7-5 win over the Angels. That result pulls them into a tie with Cleveland for the second Wild Card, though technically they are percentage points ahead. There's no time to rest on their laurels, however. One positive is the A's have four games in hand compared to the team that leads the Wild Card, Tampa Bay, and there's only a one-game difference right now between the Rays and A's/Indians. We expect Oakland to win again tonight. Not only are the Angels just 3-14 their last 17 road games, they've also fallen to a season-worst nine games under .500. They haven't been this far below .500 since finishing the 2016 season at 74-88. Both bullpens were called upon early in last night's game. That puts a greater onus on the two starters for Wednesday and in that regard it's advantage A's as Tanner Roark (26 starts in '19) is far more battle-tested in the role than the Angels' Patrick Sandoval (just 4 starts). Sandoval, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, has really struggled. His only two prior road starts saw him give up 9 runs in 9 innings. The A's need this one too badly to lose and the Angels are struggling too much to win. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -129 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the NATS With a pitching matchup like deGrom vs. Scherzer, it might seem tough to pick a side, but the Nationals are too hot to be denied right now. This past weekend, they swept the Marlins, scoring 23 runs in the process. That may not sound all that impressive, but it ran their record to 19-5 over the last 24 games. Now they did lose here to the Mets last night, 7-3. But that was when the pitching matchup was decidedly in the Mets favor. It's also been nearly a month since Washington last lost back to back games. The Mets were once hot too, but that's since subsided with them losing 7 of their last 10. They are actually just 10-17 when deGrom starts this year, shocking, but nothing new as last year they were 14-18 with him on the mound. Scherzer has yet to go more than 4 1/3 innings since returning from injury (he's made two starts). But expect him to be "full systems go" tonight. While the Mets have won both deGrom vs. Scherzer matchups this season, those came before Memorial Day.Washington is a decidedly better team right now. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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09-03-19 | Phillies v. Reds -125 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the REDS The Reds fell to the Phillies 7-1 here at home on Labor Day, but that won't be happening again today. In fact, we're willing to bet on the reverse result taking place. Now the Reds did make an overnight pitching change here to Lucas Sims, who will go in place of the injured Alex Wood (back issues). That's actually an upgrade as Wood has really struggled, perhaps directly due to those lingering back issues. Sims has only made two spot starts this year, two months apart (May and July) and both coming against Milwaukee. All of the Phillies runs yesterday came on home runs as they hit four total. Look for their to be a "power outage" today, however. Philly is lucky to even be in playoff contention. They've given up more runs than they have scored while the same can NOT be said for the Reds, even though they're the team 10 games under .500. The Phillies starter for tonight is Vince Velasquez and he has an 8.53 ERA his past three starts and his last one on the road saw him give up seven runs to a Miami team that is 29th in the league in scoring. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-01-19 | Mets -106 v. Phillies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the METS The Mets are going for the sweep here and we like them to pull it off behind recent addition Marcus Stroman. Since coming over from Toronto, Stroman has started five times for his new team. The Mets have won four of those games, the lone loss coming his last start, which was against the Cubs. Pitching against these weaker National League lineups should certainly benefit Stroman after he used to have to regularly go up against the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Three career starts against the Phillies have brought 1.86 ERA for Stroman. The Phillies are 25-25 their last 50 games, but have not had a win streak of more than two games during that time. We don't like Zach Eflin starting in this spot. Before emerging victorious on August 24th (his last start), he'd gone 0-4 with an 8.42 ERA in 10 appearances. The Mets are Eflin's most common opponent (nine career starts) and he has a 6.00 ERA. Eflin's last two starts at home were both terrible as he lasted a combined 6 1/3 innings and allowed 10 runs in one of them. We've been waiting for the Mets to pass the Phillies into third place in the NL East and that finally happens tonight. Play on NY METS AAA |
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08-31-19 | Astros -170 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on HOUSTON Houston has caught the Yankees for the best record in the American League. It's hard to imagine them not having their way with the Blue Jays this weekend in Toronto. The AL West leaders already got this series off to a positive start by winning 7-4 Friday. The Astros have now won 10 of 12 overall, a nice recovery from a five-game losing streak that preceded this stretch, and send Framber Valdez to the mound today in search of another victory. Certainly not one of the marquee names on the Houston pitching staff, Valdez's numbers aren't exactly what you'd call "good." But the rookie looked a lot better his last time around as he held the Angels to just one run and two hits in what turned out to be an 11-2 Houston win. The Toronto lineup he'll face this afternoon hits just .228 at home. The Blue Jays just don't have enough offense to compete here as Houston is averaging 8.4 runs its last seven games. Clay Buchholz is getting the start for the home team here, just his second time pitching since May. It was a right shoulder injury that kept him out and you have to wonder just how much is left in the tank at this point. Houston is 24-13 in day games this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-30-19 | Red Sox -125 v. Angels | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON The Red Sox took two in Colorado earlier this week, but simply cannot afford to slow down as their chances of returning to the postseason remain tenuous at best. Still 5.5 games out, the reigning World Series Champs have improved their position by winning 9 of 12, but they still need to jump at least two teams. A weekend stay in Los Angeles should be to the Red Sox liking as they traditionally have had their way with the Angels. They haven't visited Anaheim since April of last season, but swept that series and were 6-0 against the Angels overall in 2018. The teams split a four-game series at Fenway Park earlier this month, but Boston dominated in its two wins, one of them coming by a score of 16-4. We can't see anyone making a case for Jose Suarez, who starts for the Angels tonight, having a good outing here. Not only is he 0-3 in his previous three starts, he has a 9.23 ERA and 2.13 WHIP to boot! The Red Sox go with Eovaldi, who is making just his third start since April. A big key for the Red Sox here is their play on the road, which has resulted in a 38-28 record and 5.7 runs/game. That should be enough for Eovaldi as the Angels were just shut out on Wednesday and have only 19 hits in the last four games. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-30-19 | Mariners v. Rangers -111 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS Texas will look to rebound from a loss in the series opener and we like their chances here vs. Seattle. The Rangers are a much better team at home (38-28 record) than on the road (27-42), despite what transpired last night. Thursday's game saw the Mariners score twice in the top of the ninth to win 5-3. But save for a six-game win streak in late July and a four-game win streak in the middle of August, they have not won back to back games in the second half. The Rangers are having a better season than the Mariners, so it's odd that we don't have to lay a higher price here. They were a much bigger favorite on the money line last night. Starter Kolby Allard is off his best start at the big league level having blanked Chicago for six-plus innings with eight strikeouts. Marco Gonzales is starting for the fifth time this year against Texas tonight. While three of the previous four have gone well, there was one where he allowed eight runs. Seattle is just 15-27 vs. left-handed starters. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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08-30-19 | A's v. Yankees -137 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES The Yankees will have revenge on the mind when they take the field Friday night. The A's swept them (out in Oakland) last week, which is the only time New York has been swept this year with the exception of a three-game series in Houston all the way back in early April. At home, the Yankees would appear to have a substantial edge seeing as they've won 49 of 69 games in this park this season including 22 of 26 in the -125 to -175 price range. If that's not enough to convince you, then be aware that Aaron Judge is hitting .383 the last two weeks and he just hit six homers on the recently finished road trip. That trip ended with them sweeping the Mariners and they had Thursday off to prepare for this series. Oakland had to hold off Kansas City yesterday afternoon, a result which was good for us (had the A's), but now they face a scheduling disadvantage. While we do have some concerns about CC Sabathia, the face is Oakland should be more concerned about their starter, Brett Anderson, who has never beaten the Yankees in eight career tries (0-6, 6.86 ERA) and is 1-4 with 4.93 ERA his last six starts overall (1-5 team start record). Play on the YANKEES AAA |
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08-29-19 | Cubs v. Mets -180 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the METS The Mets were jumped on early last night and ended up losing 10-7 to the Cubs. Though it was Noah Syndergaard the Cubs jumped on, don't expect the same to happen with Jacob deGrom pitching Thursday. deGrom has been his usual filthy self for the Mets of late, compiling a 0.96 ERA and 0.83 WHIP his past seven starts. He's 3-0 during that time. The Mets really need deGrom to come up big here as they've now lost five straight, putting a severe damper on their playoff hopes. But even though they've won the first two games of this series, don't forget that the Cubs have been a bad road team most of the year. Their record away from Wrigley is only 26-39, including 3-7 as a dog of +125 to +175. The Cubs actually failed to score after the third inning last night after scoring 10 runs against the shocked Syndergaard. That was clearly an anomaly. The Mets nearly came back and won't be facing anything close to a similar deficit here with deGrom pitching. The Mets are 37-27 at home. Jon Lester has a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP for the Cubs his last three starts. Play on NY METS AAA |
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08-29-19 | A's -188 v. Royals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on OAKLAND We rode Oakland to victory the first two games of this series, including a 19-4 win Monday where they collected season-highs in both runs and hits. It proved prudent to lay off last night as they lost 6-4 to the Royals after twice blowing a two-run lead. Had they won last night, we would have likely again laid off today as it's pretty difficult to sweep a four-game series on the road. But the loss last night opens up a golden opportunity to fire here as the A's certainly are the better team and Kansas City is only 18-33 in day games. Chris Bassitt gets the nod for Oakland. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA in his last five starts. Bassitt has allowed just seven runs total in those last five starts, which have spanned more than 30 innings. So he's in solid form. Can't say the same for Royals starter Glenn Sparkman, who is not only winless his last seven starts (0-4) but has a 7.50 ERA to show for it. Kansas City has won back to back games just once this month and that came at the expense of the Tigers. Oakland is a better team in all facets and should easily rebound from last night's defeat. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-28-19 | Rangers v. Angels -175 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -175 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ANGELS We thought that the Angels were a good play last night and they won 5-2. We think they're an even better play tonight and thus will take them again on the money line. We mentioned going into yesterday's game that the Angels had gone just 7-16 this month and were a season-worst seven games below .500. But it was a good time to buy low as they had revenge, the better starter and home field advantage. All three of those factors remain present Wednesday. In fact, Texas will now be going with an opener for tonight's game, Emmanuel Clase, before going to originally scheduled starter Ariel Jurado. Clase owns a 4.35 ERA in 10 1/3 innings and has never "opened" before. Jurado has lost his last four starts and given up 22 runs in the last three. So it almost seems like the Rangers are conceding this one. The Angels Patrick Sandoval is still looking for that first win at the big league level and should not have much trouble with a lineup that has been held to four runs or less in seven of its last eight games. Texas is just 26-42 on the road this year. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA With teams like St. Louis and Washington surging, Philadephia's late season swoon has proven to be ill-timed. They lost 5-4 to the Pirates last night, on an embarrassing error from Rhys Hoskins that led to the game winning run scoring in the top of the ninth. But we don't think beating a last place team at home is asking too much quite frankly and the Phillies did win Monday's game 6-5. Believe it or not, they are still only two games back of the Wild Card. So if they can win today, they're not out of it by a long shot. Though this series has seen the two Pennsylvania rivals split a couple of one-run decisions, Philadelphia has dominated Pittsburgh the last two years, going 9-2. Wednesday starter Velasquez has struggled of late, even failing to win when being spotted a 7-0 lead in his last start. But the Pirates are not a good team. It's been a disastrous second half of the season for them, going 12-31. Their starter for tonight's game is Mitch Keller and his four road starts have produced an ugly 10.47 ERA and 2.26 WHIP. Velasquez should outpitch him and the Phillies should go onto to win a series they probably should have swept. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-27-19 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES Most of the teams in the American League this year are either really good or really bad. These two are the exception to that "rule" as both have hovered around .500 most of the way. That wasn't always the case for Texas, who was a big surprise in the first half, but has gone just 16-26 since the Break. Any chance the Angels had of making the playoffs has gone out the window due to a 7-16 record in August. They are actually a season-worst seven games below .500 right now as they've lost five a row, a streak which began in Texas last week. The only game they won in that four game series in Arlington was with Andrew Heaney on the mound and fortunately he'll be back there tonight. Heaney dominated the Rangers with 14 strikeouts in eight innings and he allowed just one run. Now compare that to Mike Minor, who allowed seven runs in his start in that series, yet Texas still came away with the victory. Minor won't be that lucky this time as the Rangers are 26-41 on the road and see a substantial drop in runs scored. Minor's last start happens to be the only game in the last week where the Rangers scored more than four runs. Heaney has a 0.64 WHIP his last three starts. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-27-19 | A's -170 v. Royals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND We cashed in big with the A's last night as they produced season-highs in both runs (19) and hits (23). It was a 10-2 game after the third innings and there was no looking back from there. Again, it shouldn't be too difficult to down the floundering Royals tonight. In the analysis for yesterday's game, we discussed the importance of this series from the A's perspective as they probably need to sweep after dropping both games to the Giants over the weekend. Monday was obviously a nice start. For the follow-up Tuesday, Michael Fiers will start. The team has won the last six times he's gotten the baseball and they are 17-9 in all of his starts this year. Kansas City just doesn't have much of an offense as they are averaging only 3.3 runs the last seven games with a .214 average. Mike Montgomery will make his eighth start of the year for them tonight. He was roughed up by Baltimore in his last start, giving up three home runs. Oakland scores more on the road, by the way. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-26-19 | A's -144 v. Royals | Top | 19-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND The A's did not have a good weekend as they dropped both games to the Giants. But far worse than losing some Bay Area pride was the ground lost in the AL Wild Card race as they are now the "odd team out" as in the three-way race with the Rays and Indians (Red Sox also still lurking). Fortunately, Kansas City should make for a good "landing spot" here on Monday. While the Royals did win yesterday, prior to that they'd dropped eight of 10 and had been held to two runs or less in seven of those losses. Ex-Royal Homer Bailey will get the start for Oakland tonight and look for him to take full advantage of being on the "other side." Bailey has been far from dominant in this short stint with the A's, but does own a 0.98 WHIP his last three starts. The A's are actually a better offensive team on the road this year (at least in terms of runs scored per game) and should have little difficulty beating up on KC starter Keller who has a 9-18 team start record this season including 0-5 his last 5. He'll be limited (in terms of innings) moving forward, which isn't exactly a good thing in the short-term for the Royals their bullpen is quite lousy. One final thing to consider is the Royals have lost the last four times they've returned home from a road trip of seven or more days. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -167 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS Not all records are created equal and in the case of Domingo German's 17-4 team start record and Clayton Kershaw's 18-4 team start record, that is certainly the case. While Kershaw has the kind of individual numbers that you'd typically associate with that kind of success, the same does not hold true for German, most certainly on the road. German has a 5.82 road ERA, yet somehow the Yankees have still won 9 of those 12 games. Kershaw has not lost a decision at Dodgers Stadium with the team winning 12 of his 13 starts here. German gave up six runs in his most recent starts (on the road). Kershaw has allowed just eight total in his last five. Despite going at least six innings in all but three of his 22 starts this year, Kershaw has not thrown more than 101 pitches. That's efficiency. The Dodgers are 52-17 overall at home this year. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-20-19 | Yankees -127 v. A's | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -127 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the YANKEES The Yankees and A's haven't met since last year's Wild Card Game, which was of course won by the Yanks 7-2. New York certainly appears to have the more viable path back to the playoffs right now as they have a big lead in the AL East and could end up with homefield advantage. Oakland probably can do no better than a Wild Card, though they did just do themselves a giant favor by taking three of four from Houston this past weekend. But they still have a 7.5 game gap to make up in the AL West. They are just 1.5 game back of the Wild Card. But even after the impressive effort over the weekend, we don't like the A's chances here. Yankees starter German has won seven straight decisions and has an 8-0 team start record his last eight starts. The Yankees are 17-3 in all of his starts this season. Oakland's Homer Bailey has not been nearly as successful, even though he shut the Giants out for seven innings in his last start. Good luck doing that to the Yankees, who are 41-13 vs. starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The New York lineup is averaging 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on the YANKEES AAA |
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08-20-19 | Indians -150 v. Mets | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND The Indians split four games with the Yankees in their last series, but aren't out of New York quite yet as now it's time for a pair of games with the Mets. Both the Indians and Mets are among the hottest teams in baseball right now and both can thank easy schedules for that. The Mets are 18-5 the last 23 games, but that includes plenty of games against the Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Cleveland has gone 20-3 vs the Tigers and Royals during a 46-22 overall. run. We like the Indians in this one for a variety of reasons. Let's start with Shane Bieber, who has a 17-8 team start record and 0.99 WHIP. Bieber has allowed just eight runs his last five starts with two complete games. The Mets' Steven Matz has not lost a decision at home this year (5-0 in 9 starts), but has not been as effective as Bieber. The Indians have won seven of their last eight Interleague road games and are 16-5 their last 21 road games, period. They're the better team here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-19-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS This shapes up to be a very important series in the National League Central as well as the NL playoff race in general. St. Louis will start the week tied with the Cubs for first place in the division. Milwaukee is two games back. The Cardinals had the better weekend as they split in Cincinnati. We used them yesterday as a 10* play and won. The Brewers lost two of three in Washington and got killed Sunday 16-8. In the last two days, the Brewers have allowed 30 runs. Expect them to allow a lot more tonight due to the struggling Zach Davies being on the mound. Davies last three starts have seen him allow 18 runs in just 13 innings. By the way, the last time the Cardinals took on the Brewers, they swept them (back in April). The Brewers struggle on the road. Their road record is 28-34. St. Louis is 34-23 at home and will send out Dakota Hudson. In his last start, Hudson tossed six scoreless innings. The team is 8-3 with him on the mound here at Busch Stadium. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-18-19 | Cubs -148 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CUBS We'll keep rolling with the Cubs after they finally won a road game yesterday. It was a 2-0 win at PNC Park. This series will now conclude in nearby Williamsport (PA) as part of the Little League World Series festivities. It's the Sunday night game, set to be broadcast on ESPN. The Cubs have struggled on the road, but perhaps this neutral setting will offset that. Yesterday afternoon, Jon Lester threw six shutout innings and even though the Pirates had the bases loaded three different times, they never got anyone across home plate. Pittsburgh has now lost 26 of 33 games since the All Star Break. The Cubs are now 34-17 in day games this year. While not a day game, the Cubs can lean on Jose Quintana tonight just as they leaned on Lester Saturday. Quintana has a 1.89 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in his last three starts. His last start was one of his most dominant. He had 14 strikeouts against Philadelphia, a game the Cubs still lost 4-2. But Pittsburgh is a much weaker opponent than Philadelphia. Look for the Cubs to score more runs tonight as they face a weak starter in Keller, who has a 7.94 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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08-18-19 | White Sox v. Angels -174 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the ANGELS The Angels rallied for four runs in the bottom of the seventh last night, ripping victory from the jaws of defeat. Of course, it really shouldn't be that difficult to defeat the White Sox, one of six teams to be outscored by more 100 runs this year. But while the other five all have lost at least 73 games, somehow Chicago has been able "get by" with a 55-67 record. That's not good, but it isn't horrible either. The reality though is that the White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball. The Angels are going for a fourth win in their last five games here and should get it behind starter Griffin Canning, who has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The White Sox remain 28th in MLB in runs scored (third fewest) and starter Dylan Cease has a 5.31 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. With yesterday's win, the Angels improved to an impressiv 59-37 as home favorites of -125 to -175. Look for them to take the series. Play on the ANGELS AAA |
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08-18-19 | Cardinals -157 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS The Cardinals did not fare well in Cincinnati yesterday, losing 6-1. They've now dropped two of three in the series, getting held to just one run in both losses. But they scored 13 in the one win. They need not worry about giving up many runs on Sunday afternoon with Jack Flaherty pitching. Flaherty has not allowed a single run in his last three starts. They've spanned a total of 21 innings and he's allowed only eight hits. He's struck out 26 and walked only four. This is a big pitching edge for St. Louis with Flaherty going up against Alex Wood, whose four starts so far haven't gone particularly well. By the way, Flaherty has already pitched twice against Cincy this season and has yet to give up a run, 11 1/3 scoreless innings to be exact. Yesterday aside, the Reds remain a disaster in day games with a 17-32 record. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-17-19 | Twins -151 v. Rangers | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MINNESOTA The Twins got a "2 for 1 special" Friday night. Not only did they win, but the Indians lost. That means Minnesota's advantage in the AL Central is now 1.5 games, nothing compared to what it once was (11.5 games!), but it's breathing room. Seeing as the Indians are in New York playing the Yankees this weekend, it's paramount for Minnesota to keep beating up on the floundering Rangers. They also won 13-6 Thursday, which was a lot more lopsided than last night, but a win is a win. It should be another easy win tonight with Jose Berrios pitching. Berrios has a good WHIP, especially on the road (1.08) and when compared to opposing starter Jurado, whose WHIP is a terrible 1.50. Lately, Jurado has been worse with a 7.98 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in his last three starts. Texas has lost all three of those games.The last one saw him allow eight runs in only 3 2/3 IP. The Rangers have now lost eight of 10 and have no shot at making the playoffs at this point. Minnesota has everything to play for and will continue to assert its dominance. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-17-19 | Cubs -141 v. Pirates | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CUBS The Cubs failed to come through for us last night as their road woes continued. A 3-2 loss here in Pittsburgh leaves the Cubs not only 23-39 outside of Wrigley, but also out of first place in the NL Central as St. Louis won yesterday to go up a full game in the standings. The Cubs can't afford to drop anymore games in Pittsburgh this weekend and we see them bouncing back Saturday afternoon against a still struggling side that has gone just 7-25 in the second half. It being an early game today works in the Cubs favor as they're 33-17 in day games this year. Pittsburgh is giving up almost six full runs per game at PNC Park, so expect the Cubs bats to wake up after being held to only five hits last night. Jon Lester obviously needs to be better than he has been recently for Chicago. It's a good thing then that he's 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA his last four starts in Pittsburgh. The Pirates will start Steven Brault, who has also been used as a reliever at times. No matter if he's started or come on in relief, Brault has had no career success against the Cubs as is evident by 7.53 ERA in 12 appearances against them. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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08-16-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA Last night was a bad night for us and perhaps no loss was more surprising than the Diamondbacks going down 7-0 at the hands of the Giants. It wasn't just how the Dbax lost, but rather HOW as they were held to three hits by Dereck Rodriguez, who had just been called up from Triple A and looked the best he ever has. No Arizona runner ever reached second base. They were supposed to be face Jeff Samardzija yesterday, not Rodriguez, but now get Samardzija tonight. The former Notre Dame standout has pitched great of late, but he has a 6.35 ERA in two starts vs. the Diamondbacks this season. Arizona is 3-1 after being shut out this season. They send Mike Leake out to the mound, hoping he pitches a lot better here than he did vs. the Dodgers on Sunday. He should as the Giants have a much weaker hitting lineup than the Dodgers. They are bottom five in runs, batting average and OPS. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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08-16-19 | Indians v. Yankees -152 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the YANKEES The Indians came to New York and jumped all over the Yankees last night, hitting seven home runs en route to a shocking 19-5 victory in the Bronx. It was Cleveland's biggest win of the year as well as the Yankees worst loss of the year (in terms of margin). The 24 hits that the Indians collected were their most in over a decade. But we've got New York bouncing back tonight. Not just because of their 6-2 record this year after giving up 10 or more runs (19-8 L3 seasons too), but also the pitching matchup, which has Masahiro Tanaka going tonight. Tanaka is 6-2 at home this year and 3-0 his last three starts overall. His last start was eight shutout innings of three hit ball at Toronto. Cleveland's Civale has started only three games prior to this and while all have gone well, this will easily be his toughest assignment to date. The Yankees are a dominant 47-19 at home this year, including 20-4 when priced as a -125 to -175 favorite. They bounce back in a big way Friday. Play on the YANKEES AAA |
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08-16-19 | Cubs -133 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CUBS Should be an easy series for the Cubs this week as they play a Pittsburgh team they swept last month. That series was the first after the All Star Break and really "sunk" the Pirates season as they've gone just 6-25 in the second half. We know we've preached caution with playing the Cubs on the road as their record is just 23-38 away from Wrigley after being swept in Philadelphia to start the week. But Pittsburgh is 0-4 this season as a home dog of +125 to +175. Kyle Hendricks really got roughed up in his last start for the Cubs, giving up seven runs, but you should expect him to pitch a lot better here as he's given up no more than two runs in any of his previous seven starts. Starting opposite Hendricks will be Joe Musgrove for Pittsbugh. Musgrove is not having a good year at all as his ERA and WHIP in his last three starts are 7.98 and 1.637. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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08-15-19 | Cubs -140 v. Phillies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs have some revenge on the mind tonight as they got crushed 11-1 by the Phillies Weds night. You might also remember us taking the Phillies +1.5 on Tuesday, a game where the run line did not even come into play as they won 4-2. These two straight losses have landed the Cubs back in a first place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Phillies are very much alive in the Wild Card hunt as they're now just two games back of whomever doesn't win the Central. While we're still very much wary of the Cubs' road woes (cited in Tuesday's analysis), this is a game where they absolutely deserve to be favored and should deliver accordingly. Drew Smyly is pitching for the Phillies and he's simply not the guy to get the job done. After his tenure in the City of Brotherly Love got off to a good start (two straight quality outings), Smyly has been tagged for 11 runs in his last two starts. Going back to his time in Texas, he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 starts. He'll be opposed by Yu Darvish, who has a 0.88 WHIP his last three starts. Over his last seven starts, Darvish has 51 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -131 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA From July 25th to August 10th, the Mets went 15-1 to surge back into the playoff picture. But they've come back down to Earth with back to back losses, including 5-3 here in Atlanta last night. The task will get no easier Wednesday as they are set to face Dallas Keuchel, who has gotten the job done at SunTrust Park. Keuchel has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his new home park. We feel Keuchel sitting out the first three months of the season (was a free agent) will serve him well down the stretch as he'll be fresher. Atlanta definitely needs him to stay fresh as they try and win the NL East for a second year in a row. For the Mets' Steven Matz, things have not gone well on the road this year as his ERA and WHIP are 6.79 and 1.67. He's 2-7 in 12 starts and his last time pitching on the road saw him give up five runs in just over three innings to a Pirates team that is in last place. That was actually the Mets only loss in that 16-game stretch mentioned above. The Mets are still only 8-20 their last 28 games vs. teams that have a winning record. Braves win this battle of southpaws. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-14-19 | Mariners -132 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE Seattle hasn't had many easy victories of late, or really many victories at all, but they were able to win 11-6 yesterday here in Detroit. The Mariners are now 5-0 this season against the Tigers, who are one of the few teams in the American League with a worse record. Of course, everyone - AL and NL - has a better record than Detroit, who is just 35-81 while getting outscored by 233 runs. They've been especially bad at home, getting outscored by almost three full runs per game! Seattle beat the Tigers' best pitcher (Matthew Boyd) yesterday, so getting by Edwin Jackson should not be a problem by comparison. Jackson has a 9.35 ERA and 1.92 WHIP this year. His last start was the best one, but that came against a weak-hitting Kansas City lineup. Remember that he was cut by a bad Toronto team (that doesn't exactly have great starting pitching) earlier in the year. Seattle's Marco Gonzales beat Detroit last month, holding them to one run in seven innings. His last start saw him give up only two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Three of his last four starts have seen him go six or more innings and allow no more than two runs. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox -114 v. Indians | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON The Red Sox come to Cleveland probably needing a sweep. They just lost two games over the weekend to a bad Angels team, further dropping them off the pace for the Wild Card. Sunday's loss came in extra innings after blowing a late lead. The Indians were also involved in an extra inning game yesterday afternoon, but they won theirs 7-3 thanks to a Carlos Santana grand slam after they too blew a late lead. Cleveland has won 42 of its last 59 games, so this will be tough for Boston, but they have the right guy for the job Monday in starter Eduardo Rodriguez. They've won 17 of the last 21 times he's gotten the baseball, not including the last time as that game was suspended due to rain. He went five innings in that game and gave up only two runs on seven hits. This will be Rodriguez's first time facing Cleveland this year, but he's got a 2.63 ERA in two previous starts against them. Plesac has been getting it done for Cleveland as the team is a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts. However, more often than not, he doesn't go too deep into games. Boston needs this game more and will be more motivated. They are actually 40-12 in Rodriguez's last 52 starts. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-11-19 | Phillies +100 v. Giants | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Giants were among the hottest teams in baseball not too long ago, but have cooled off considerably by losing 8 of their last 12. Two of the four wins have come in this series against the similarly struggling Phillies. Last night was a 3-1 win, the second time in the series a Giants starter was able to hold the Philies hitters in check. But there's no Madison Bumgarner or Jeff Samardzija on the mound tonight. Instead it will be Conner Menez and we like Philly's chances against him. Menez is making only his third start of the year, but second in a row in the rotation. He gave up five runs Tuesday in a loss to the Nationals. Menez isn't likely to get much help from the Giants hitters either. They've averaged less than three runs/game over the last week.They average only 3.3 runs/game at home. What that all means is that it should be a good start for Jake Arrieta, who has given up just runs in each of his last two starts. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-11-19 | Nationals v. Mets -183 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -183 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the METS The Mets have won eight in a row and can sweep the Nationals Sunday with Jacob deGrom pitching. As you'd expect with deGrom on the mound, the odds are certainly in the Mets favor. Incredibly, if the Mets win today, they would be in Wild Card position. deGrom has been insanely good of late. He's posted a 1.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP his last seven starts and a 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP his last three. He is 8-4 with a 2.77 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Washington. The last time deGrom faced the Nationals, he gave up only one run on two hits in six innings and beat Max Scherzer. The Mets are obviously playing much better now as they've not only won eight straight, but also 15 of their last 16. Anibal Sanchez is a fine pitcher for the Nats, but he's not deGrom and sometimes a game simply boils down to the starting pitching matchup. Throw in the fact that the Mets are insanely hot right now and this looks to be a no-brainer! Play on the METS AAA |
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08-11-19 | Angels v. Red Sox -138 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON It's been hard times for both teams of late. The Angels had lost eight in a row before yesterday's surprising 12-4 victory here at Fenway Park, which was just the latest installment of terrible Boston pitching. But they should be better today. Andrew Cashner has really struggled of late, but the Red Sox did win the first two games of this series 3-0 and 16-4. They are a better team than the Angels. It's pretty disappointing that Boston is only 30-29 at home because they are averaging a strong 5.8 runs/game at Fenway. Patrick Sandoval will be making just his second big league start here for the Angels and it's a tough spot. It was really one big inning that did the Red Sox in last night as the Angels finished with more runs (12) than hits (11). Cashner may have struggled of late, but he has pitched at least six innings in each of his last three starts vs. LA, turning in a 3.27 ERA. Boston is 71-29 its L100 games vs. teams that have losing records. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-10-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -142 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS Of all the teams that could have come to Busch Stadium this week, the Cardinals would probably have the Pirates near the top of that list. They beat them last night, 6-2, to improve to 10-4 head to head with Pittsburgh this season. The win also snapped a five-game losing skid, the entirety of which occurred on the West Coast (in Oakland and LA). As for the Pirates, they've lost six in a row and 22 of 26 since the All Star Break. So they are what St. Louis needs right now as the Cardinals try and keep pace with the Cubs in the Central Division. The Cards will start Adam Wainwright on Saturday and like most others in this rotation, he's a lot better at home (2.26 ERA) than he is on the road. Pittsburgh starter Musgrove has been lousy wherever he starts and especially lately as his ERA and WHIP in his last three starts are 9.42 and 1.605 respectively. Play ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-10-19 | Royals v. Tigers -122 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers are arguably the worst team in baseball, but this is one of the few series where the odds are in their favor. Sure enough, they've beaten the Royals each of the past two days, 10-8 and 5-2. Incredibly, this is the first time the Tigers have won consecutive games since a three-game win streak at the end of May. That's their only win streak since April, which is quite the "achievement." Despite history not being on their side Saturday, we'll back the team from the Motor City. Spencer Turnbull may have an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts, but that's more a byproduct of pitching for a bad team than his own personal shortcomings. Turnbull has allowed no more than three runs in six of those eight starts. Kansas City is not a good team and has lost all four starts made by Montgomery, who gets the nod here. While 26-73 against "everyone else," the Tigers are 9-5 against the Royals this season. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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08-09-19 | Indians -144 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND Cleveland is now just one game back of Minnesota following Thursday's 7-5 wn. Winning tonight would obviously pull them into a first place tie. The Twins once led the Indians by as many as 11.5 games and were ahead by 7.5 games as recently as July 13th. But the Indians have caught fire by going 40-16 their last 56 games. Perhaps this young Minnesota team is now feeling the heat as they have lost three in a row for just the second time all year. Their other three-game losing streak came right after the All Star Break and was snapped with a 6-3 win over Oakland. But expect a different result this time as Cleveland's Shane Bieber has been virtually untouchable of late with two complete games in his last three starts, one of them a shutout. The Indians are 16-7 in Bieber starts this year and he has a 0.75 WHIP on the road. Twins starter Smeltzer has only started three games. In two of them, he didn't allow a run. But the third was against Cleveland and he gave up all five runs in a 5-2 loss. Bieber has beaten the Twins both times he faced them this year. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-09-19 | Braves -134 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on ATLANTA Look for the Braves to bounce back from last night's embarrassing 9-2 loss to the Marlins. Did you know that Atlanta is 12-1 this season as a road favorite of -125 to 175? Or 23-6 in that role since the start of the 2017 season? Well they are. They were actually priced higher than that range last night with Dallas Keuchel on the mound, but he got chased after five innings with Miami up 8-0. Look for a better start Friday from Julio Teheran. This will be his fourth start of the year against the Marlins. The previous three have resulted in 18 scoreless innings and only nine hits allowed! So it's fair to say Teheran has had this division rival's number. Miami has scored way fewer runs that every other NL team, so last night's offensive explosion was a real rarity. Caleb Smith will pitch for the Marlins. While he's largely been effective, the Braves are going to be highly motivated tonight. Smith won't get much support. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-08-19 | Yankees -192 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the YANKEES The Yankees are rolling again. They are off a sweep in Baltimore where they hit 17 homers in three games and scored 32 runs total. They've won eight straight overall. This series with the Blue Jays figures to go their way as well. The Yankees are 6-3 vs. Toronto this season and the last time Domingo German pitched against them, he threw six shutout innings. German has a 15-3 team start record this year as his last six starts have all been NY wins. Toronto hits really poorly at home (.221 average) while giving up 5.5 runs/game. We just don't know how the Blue Jays can keep pace with the Yankees offense here. Not with Thomas Pannone pitching, that's for sure. Pannone is 0-3 in his five starts so far with a 9.28 ERA and 1.547 WHIP. This is every bit the mismatch it appears to be on paper. Toronto is off a 7-3 road trip, but two of the series were with Baltimore and Kansas City. This is a big step up. The Yankees have scored 58 runs during their eight-game win streak. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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08-07-19 | A's v. Cubs -136 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the CUBS After coming through for us on Monday, the Cubs failed to do so on Tuesday, losing 11-4 to the A's. A poor performance prompted Cubs starter Jon Lester to refer to himself as the "weak link" of the rotation, but fortunately for today we've got Jose Quintana, whose last six starts have all ended up as Cubs victories. This has been discussed each of the last two days, but the Cubs are a much better team here at Wrigley than they are on the road. Their home record is 40-19. Only two teams (Houston, LA Dodgers) have better home marks. Oakland is stuck with Homer Bailey for this rubber match and that's not a good sign. Bailey has a 6.97 ERA in four starts since coming over from KC and his performances on the road have been consistently bad all year. In 10 road starts, he has a 6.44 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Quintana allowed just two runs in six innings his last time out and we just can't see the Cubs dropping two in a row at home. They are 31-17 in day games this year. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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08-07-19 | Braves v. Twins +107 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA This battle of division leaders has seen a split of the first two games with Minnesota winning 5-3 Monday and Atlanta returning the favor last night, 12-7. For the host Twins, Tuesday was just the second loss in their last nine games. They've been the more dominant team (compared to Atlanta) this year as they've outscored their opponents by a much wider margin (more than double the Braves' run differential). It's been led by an offense that will very likely break the single season record for home runs hit (set just last year!) - by the end of this month. Atlanta's Max Fried has somehow managed to go 7-1 on the road this year (9-2 TSR) in spite of a 4.53 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in those 11 starts. The lineup he'll be facing today is much tougher than virtually all he sees in the National League. We recognize that Twins starter Perez hasn't exactly been "sharp" of late, but trust us when we say this is a good spot to back the home team. Minnesota is 36-15 off a loss and 26-17 in day games. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs -135 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS We played the Cubs yesterday and that worked out well as they held off the A's for a 6-5 win. Oakland did score three runs in the top of the eighth to make the game more interesting than it had any right to be, but the bottom line is that for the Cubs it was a fourth straight victory, all coming here in Wrigley. As talked about in yesterday's analysis, the Cubs are a vastly better team at home where their record is now 40-18 on the year. Only the Dodgers and Astros have better home records. Now its Jon Lester toeing the rubber on Tuesday and he's got a 9-2 TSR at home to go with a 2.95 ERA. Oakland's lineup isn't as strong as it usually is because of the loss of the DH. The Cubs don't give up many runs to begin with at home (just 3.7 per game) so look for the A's to struggle to score tonight. Brett Anderson is the starter for Oakland and has a 5.60 ERA his last three turns in the rotation. The Cubs have won 12 of the last 14 home games and should continue surging. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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08-05-19 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers pulled one out for us on Sunday, walking off against the Padres in an 11-10 win. Now they face St. Louis, who did not have a good weekend. The Cardinals dropped both of their games in Oakland to fall out of first place in the National League Central. The likelihood of them turning things around when playing the best team in baseball, on the road, seems pretty minute. The Dodgers are 43-15 at home this year. As was the case yesterday, this would appear to be a very cheap price, one that you don't often see. The reason for that is Tony Gonsolin is taking Hyun-Jin Ryu's spot in the rotation as the latter is on the disabled list. Gonsolin should do just fine though. Over its past seven games, St. Louis has scored more than three runs only one time. Starter Michael Wacha has a 6.75 ERA in four lifetime starts vs. LA and has been in and out of the rotation this year due to general ineffectiveness. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs host Oakland tonight and the game will be on ESPN. It was a huge sweep over the weekend for the Cubs as they took all three games from Milwaukee to re-establish themselves as the team to beat in the NL Central. While that was going on, the A's did the Cubs a favor by beating St. Louis twice. Unfortunately for the A's, we think that they're reward will be little more than a "thank you" here at Wrigley Field. A real advantage for the Cubs tonight is they'll have Kyle Hendricks pitching. Not only does he sport a 1.89 ERA/0.88 WHIP in nine home starts, he's got a 0.95 ERA/0.90 WHIP his last three overall. The last two two starts, which came at Milwaukee and St. Louis, saw Hendricks not allow a single run for 12 innings. Oakland's Chris Bassitt threw six scoreless innings himself in his last start, but the difference is that his performance was atypical. Bassitt is also winless in seven interleague starts. The Cubs are really strong at home. They've won 11 of the last 13 games at Wrigley to move to 39-18 here for the year. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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08-04-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS This is a shockingly low price on the Dodgers at home against a team like the Padres. Yes, San Diego did win here on Friday and actually took three of four in their previous visit to Chavez Ravine. But the Dodgers remain the class of the National League right now with a +171 run differential and 73-40 record. An easy 4-1 win for the home team last night only confirmed what we already knew about these teams - the Dodgers are simply much better. They are 42-15 at home this year. We suppose some are willing to give San Diego a fighting chance here due to Chris Paddack being on the mound. But while his numbers are impressive, Paddack still has a 5-5 team start record on the road and he gave up six runs in a loss here in LA back in May. Maeda will go for the Dodgers and he has a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home. The Dodgers are 81-40 their last 121 days games, which includes a 20-8 record this season. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-04-19 | Mets -133 v. Pirates | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS The Mets have won 7 of their last 8 games, the lone loss coming on Friday here in Pittsburgh. But they quickly responded with a 7-5 win last night and are now within two games of .500. That may not sound like much, but the Mets are just four back of the Wild Card. Pittsburgh has long ceased being a contender. They've lost 17 of 21 games since the All Star Break and are in last place in the NL Central. The Mets recent winning ways allowed them to keep Noah Syndergaard for the stretch run and that's definitely a good thing considering his 1.91 ERA and 36 strikeouts in the second half of the season. He's pitched at least seven innings in each of his last four starts and believe it or not, that's a career first. In three career starts vs. Pittsburgh, Syndergaard has a 1.77 ERA. The Pirates can only offer up Joe Musgrove as resistance. While Musgrove has been better of late, he still has a 4.52 ERA at home and struggled in his most recent start here, giving up six runs. Play on the METS AAA |
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08-04-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -154 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -154 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA After losing a "marathon game" (went 15 innings) Friday night, the Phillies bounced back to beat the White Sox 3-2 last night. Truthfully, this should have been a much easier series for Philly as Chicago came in having won only four games since the All Star Break. Also, only two teams (Miami and Detroit) have scored fewer runs than the White Sox' 439 this season and they are without the DH here at Citizens Bank Park. Over their last seven games, the Sox are scoring an average of 2.3 runs/game and batting .203. So they would seem to be a "safe" opponent for Drew Smyly to continue his resurgence. Since coming over to Philadelphia, Smyly has been a much better pitcher with a 0.69 ERA in two starts as he's allowed one run in 13 innings. Similarly, Reynaldo Lopez has pitched much better of late for Chicago. But he's got a far lousier team backing him up. The White Sox are 16-31 in day games this year. The Phillies are 24-13. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-03-19 | Cardinals v. A's -151 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND While Interleague Play may seemingly lack the importance of a division game, don't tell that to either St. Louis or Oakland, both of whom need a big weekend. This is just a two-game series as the teams had Friday off. St. Louis has a 1/2 game lead in the NL Central after they won for us Thursday, against the Cubs. Oakland is 8.5 games back of Houston in the AL West, but still very viable in the Wild Card race where they trail Tampa Bay by a 1/2 game for the second spot. We side with the A's on Saturday as they send Michael Fiers to the mound. Fiers has been very good at home this year, owning a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts, eight of which have resulted in Oakland victories. As we discussed in the Chicago-St. Louis series, the Cardinals are not nearly as good on the road and that's reflected in a lot of the numbers from their starting pitchers. Saturday's starter Dakota Hudson has a 1.56 WHIP in 11 road games and hasn't exactly pitched well of late. He gave up three home runs in his last start, which lasted only four innings and that was at home. St. Louis lost that game 6-2, part of a 7-9 record vs. American League teams this season. Also interesting is that the Cards are just 1-3 off a shutout win this year and 9-15 in this situation the last three years. They blanked the Cubs Thursday, 8-0. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-02-19 | White Sox v. Phillies -179 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies finished off the Giants Thursday afternoon, winning 10-2, and that made it a winning series for them. This weekend, they'll get an even easier opponent. The White Sox come into town and they are in really bad shape right now as they've won only four games since the All Star Break. They were just swept by the Mets, at home, and shutout in yesterday's series finale. Jason Vargas will make his Phillies debut tonight. He'd been pretty reliable for the Mets in posting a 3.27 ERA in 16 starts, going at least six innings in 10 of them, which makes you wonder why the Mets would ship him to a division rival for so little in return. Regardless, Vargas should shut down a White Sox lineup that doesn't score much (28th in MLB in runs) and will of course be without the DH. Ivan Nova gets the start for Chicago tonight and while he's coming off two straight strong outings, he still has a 5.23 ERA. The White Sox are 16-38 their last 54 interleague contests while the Phillies are 7-3 in their 10 this season. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-01-19 | Reds v. Braves -148 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA The Braves and Reds are opening up a four-game series in Atlanta here and we give the home team a considerable edge in tonight's opener. While the Reds are actually pretty underrated, they struggle to win games on the road (21-30 WL record). They come off a successful 4-2 homestand, but were blown out in both losses and thus actually outscored in the six games. Atlanta is a very legitimate first place team over in the NL East, a position they have now occupied for some time now. By winning the last two days in Washington, they've opened up a 6.5-game lead in the division. Cincy really doesn't have much to play for the rest of the way. Even though the Wild Card race is pretty wide open, it's highly unlikely they can pull into real contention. Anthony DeSclafani has a 4.97 ERA on the road and gets the start for the Reds tonight. The Braves are one of the higher scoring teams in the National League. Max Fried will start for them and while he's been "up and down" of late, he's still managed an 11-4 record in his 20 starts this year (14-6 TSR). The Braves have won 20 of their last 28 games against sub-.500 teams. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS The Cubs' 2-0 win last night snapped a 10-game win streak by the home team in this NL Central rivalry. While 6-0 against the Cardinals at Wrigley Field this season, they're still just 1-4 against them at Busch Stadium. You can expect things to revert back to the trend favoring the home team tonight as the Cards go with Jack Flaherty, who always tends to pitch much better when at home. He's got a 0.91 WHIP in 11 home starts, compared to 1.57 on the road. For those who may not follow WHIP, that's a substantial difference. Also, Flaherty has been really sharp of late, even with no wins to show for it. His last four starts, two coming at home and two on the road, have seen him allow only four runs and 14 hits. While he's not factored into any of the decisions, the Cardinals have won Flaherty's last two starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Lester, admittedly a reliable option for the Cubs. In his last start, Lester shut the Brewers out for seven innings. But the road remains a concern for Lester and the Cubs. Not just because of their previous struggles here in St. Louis. But the team's overall record away from home this year is only 21-32 and that includes 3-6 in Lester starts. Look for Flaherty to get that elusive win! Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-01-19 | Twins -161 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -161 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA The Twins are going for a 3-game sweep today, a result that can't be deemed entirely unexpected. We were on them Tuesday, a 2-1 win here in Miami, and then the AL Central leaders made it look even easier yesterday with a 7-4 victory. Today's game sets up as perhaps the easiest of the three. The Twins do face Jordan Yamamoto, but he's been on a downward trajectory of late and was absolutely rocked his last time out, giving up six runs in four innings. Michael Pineda will oppose Yamamoto and he's looked especially good of late. The righty has allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his previous 14 starts. He will face a lineup that has produced the fewest runs scored by any team from the National League. Meanwhile Yamamoto has to deal with a lineup that not only leads MLB in home runs, but also scores - on average - 6.1 runs/game on the road. A total mismatch in every way here. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-30-19 | Mets -142 v. White Sox | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the METS The Mets have been terribly disappointing in 2019, but come into this series on a four-game win streak. They just swept the Pirates and now get to face another bad team, albeit on the road, in the form of the White Sox. Chicago has been terrible since the All Star Break, losing 13 of its 17 games and getting outscored by 42 runs in the process. They were beaten 11-1 by the Twins on Sunday and are 18-36 the last three seasons after giving up 10 or more runs the previous game. Assuming Noah Syndergaard isn't traded today, the Mets are in a good position here. Syndergaard has gone seven innings in each of his last three starts and will be facing a lineup that often struggles to put runs on the road. For the year, Chicago is 28th in MLB in runs scored. Their starter for Tuesday is Reynaldo Lopez, who has actually looked good since the All Star Break, but he also had a lousy 1st half. So expect him to revert back to his "old ways" Just to show how bad Lopez was in the first half, he still has a 5.52 ERA even after allowing only four earned runs in his last 21 innings pitched. The White Sox are just 16-38 their last 54 interleague games. Play on the METS AAA |
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07-30-19 | Twins -138 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA Minnesota has played better than anyone could have imagined this year. They are 64-41 with a run differential of +125. They can look forward to taking advantage of the bevy of remaining games against the three bad teams from their division (Chicago, KC, Detroit), but the "problem" is that Cleveland gets to face all those teams a bunch too. The Indians are now only two games back of the Twins in the division, so this is going to be a race the rest of the way. Basically, what we're saying here is this series against a bad Miami team is one in which the Twins need not lose any games/ground. We like them to easily take Tuesday's game as the Marlins had to play yesterday while the Twins had Monday off. The better team being in the better spot is always a nice luxury to have. Miami has the worst record over in the National League. Jake Odorizzi is off a rough start for Minnesota, but that was against the Yankees and he should bounce back tonight against what is the 2nd lowest scoring team in MLB. That last start was only the fourth time this year where Odorizzi allowed more than three runs. Miami's Zac Gallen does enter Tuesday with impressive numbers, but he has yet to face a lineup like the Twins, who come in averaging 6.1 runs/game on the road. Minnesota has taken five of its previous six series openers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-29-19 | Dodgers -134 v. Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -134 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES Like a lot of teams, the Rockies have had their fair share of problems beating the Dodgers this year. Unlike most teams, they face the disadvantage of being in the same division as the Dodgers. It's a 2-8 head to head record vs. LA in 2019 and that's with a four-game split the last time the Dodgers came here to Coors Field. That was last month and since then, things have not gone well for Colorado. They're just 5-17 in July after losing Sunday in Cincinnati. The Dodgers just missed a chance to sweep the Nationals in D.C. on Sunday, but should bounce back here as they've been very strong off a loss all year. Kenta Maeda will get the start Monday for LA. While far from the best starter on the team, Maeda has allowed more than three earned runs only one time since May 10th. That's a stretch of 13 starts and the only exception came at an American League stadium. Pitching at Coors Field isn't easy, but starting for Colorado is Jon Gray, who allowed six runs his last start here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-28-19 | Rockies v. Reds -157 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI The Reds are somewhat of an underrated team. Despite being eight games below .500, they've outscored their opposition this season by allowing the fourth fewest runs in all of baseball. We don't see them making a run at a pennant in 2019, but keep an eye out for them next season. Also keep an eye on them Sunday as they look to win this series with the Rockies. Friday night didn't go well for the home team (12-2 loss), but they bounced back to win 3-1 on Saturday. Colorado is in a slump right now as they've lost 10 of their last 13 games. But the real key here is that Alex Wood is making his first start for Cincinnati. Wood came over from the Dodgers in the Puig trade over the winter. Because of injuries, he's yet to pitch a big league game this season. But Wood has looked good in various rehab assignments and is only two years removed from being an All Star. The Rockies lineup he'll be facing struggles to score on the road (4.3 runs/game). Rockies starter Lambert is winless over his last six starts as is the team. There have been only two times (out of eight) that Lambert has made it a full six innings. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -129 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies lost 15-7 to the Braves last night, leaving them 7.5 (games) back in the National League East race and 1 game back of the Wild Card teams (Nationals, Cubs). So a win Sunday would not only allow them to avoid being swept by the first place Braves, it would also go a long way in this crowded NL playoff race. Starting for Philly on Sunday is Aaron Nola, who we've seen go 8-2 in 22 starts and seemingly get better as the season moves along. His last seven starts have produced a 1.51 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with Nola allowed 1 or 0 runs in six of those seven outings. He's also a more dominant pitcher at home. Atlanta goes with Gausman, who has struggled this year with a 6.35 ERA and 1.694 WHIP on the road. Gausman did pitch well in his last start, but that came at home. The Phillies are a solid 22-13 in day games and they're also 19-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-27-19 | Rangers v. A's -153 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Oakland has really taken on it on the chin in the first two games of this series, losing 11-3 and 5-2. After winning their first five games post-All Star Break, things have really grinded to a halt for the A's as they're now just 3-6 the last nine games, which obviously hurts in a hotly contested Wild Card race. It's not like Texas had been playing well coming into this series either. They'd dropped 9 of 10, which basically killed their own faint Wild Card hopes. Despite losing the first two games, the A's remain a big favorite for Saturday in a battle of two struggling starting pitchers. Adrian Sampson has been used both as a reliever and as a starter by the Rangers and truth be told neither role has suited him very well. He's gone 0-3 in his last six appearances with a 9.84 ERA. His last two starts have resulted in him giving up 13 runs and 19 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Oakland goes with Homer Bailey, who is making his third start since coming over from Kansas City. The less said about the last one the better, but he did deliver a quality start in his home debut vs. Seattle on 7.17. The A's have won 18 of the last 22 times they've been a home favorite of -175 or more and we think they're the play here. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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07-27-19 | Tigers v. Mariners -151 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE Seattle may have finally found an opponent to its liking as Detroit is as bad as any team in the league right now. The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series between last place teams, winning 10-2 Thursday and 3-2 Friday. They've won four of five overall. As for the Tigers, it has been downright ugly of late with a 3-17 record in July and that's after winning only five games in June. The AL West has given the Tigers all sorts of trouble in 2019 as their record vs. that division is now 1-13. Seattle has its ace on the mound Saturday, Marco Gonzales, who is 6-2 in his last eight starts. He's allowed three runs or less in seven of those eight outings. He has a 3.09 ERA in two previous starts vs. Detroit, both of them coming in 2018. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of MLB, so expecting a quality start out of Gonzales today seems more than reasonable. Lefty Tyler Alexander goes for Detroit as this will be only his third start. It's highly unlikely that he'll be able to pitch well enough to give his team a chance to win. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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07-27-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox -136 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON The Red Sox have exploded in this series, scoring 29 runs against Yankees pitching in winning the first two games. After a 19-3 annihilation took place on Thursday (we had the Over in that one!), it was a 10-5 win for the home team at Fenway Park last night. That was thanks to three Mookie Betts home runs, all coming off Yankees starter James Paxton. Boston had been just 1-6 vs. New York this season (before this series), but it's important to note that none of those games were played here in Fenway. For Saturday afternoon's nationally televised contest, we're obviously siding with Boston as they turn to Eduardo Rodriguez. No pitcher on the staff has been more successful than Rodriguez as he comes in with a 16-5 team start record, including 8-1 at home, and and he's a perfect 3-0 his last three starts overall with a 1.33 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Going back further, Rodriguez has allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts. CC Sabathia has struggled in July (6.35 ERA) and failed to get past the 4th inning in his last start. The fact he allowed four home runs is a bad sign as well. This feels like it's Boston's time to move up the standings. Back them without hesitation today. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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