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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-16 | Dodgers -157 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -157 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Dodgers. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (8-6, 2.95 ERA) who comes in off a dominant performance over the Padres on Sunday, giving up just one earned run off two scattered hits over seven innings in the eventual 3-1 victory. It was the fourth time in seven starts that the 28-year old has allowed only a single earned run. He’d also post 24 swinging strikes overall and struck out 14 of the first 15 batters he faced. LA has to be liking its chances today as Maeda is 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the erratic Robbie Ray (4-8, 4.81) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in an loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Over his last four starts Ray is 1-3 with a ballooned 6.05 ERA and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s a poor 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA in Arizona to date. After letting yesterday’s series opener slip away late in the 2-1 setback, we look for the hard-hitting DODGERS to exact a little revenge this evening. AAA Sports |
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07-17-16 | Mets -160 v. Phillies | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets. We’re giving the nod to the Mets in this matchup, both on the mound and at the plate. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (5-4, 2.61 ERA) who turned down a spot in the All Star game because he wanted to rest. In his last start before the break DeGrom would give up two runs off six hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over Miami on Wednesday. DeGrom has been sharp so far in July, giving up just three runs over 12 innings of work to go along with 14 K’s to just three walks. Over his last three starts he’s posted a tiny 1.35 ERA and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, as he owns a very respectable 2.84 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-2, 4.08) who comes in off a 10-3 win over the Rockies on Sunday, giving up just two runs off seven hits over six innings. The book is still out on Eflin in our opinion though and there’s no question that he draws a tough matchup today vs. the hard-hitting Mets. Also note that Eflin has already struggled in this position this year, going 1-2 with a ballooned 6.64 ERA in all day games. As we mentioned off the top, we think New York has the advantage both on the hill and in the hitting department this afternoon and with those two factors working in its favor, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-17-16 | Royals v. Tigers -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Detroit Tigers. After getting clobbered 8-4 in the series opener yesterday, we’re expecting the home side to bounce back this afternoon with its ace on the mound. The visitors send Yordano Ventura (6-7, 5.15 ERA) to the hill, he’d most recently give up three runs off six hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. It was a decent start for Ventura, but note that this is a spot in which he’s struggled in all year, going just 2-5 with a poor 5.67 ERA on the road to date. The Tigers counter with Michael Fulmer (9-2, 2.11) who we think is getting very little respect from the oddsmakers in this spot. Fulmer has been a rock in his rookie year and we think he’s poised to close the season strong. In his most recent start vs. the hard-hitting Tribe on Wednesday he’d give up just two runs off five hits over six innings in the victory. Fulmer hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his last nine outings and he’s posted a minuscule 0.72 ERA with 51 K’s and 18 walks in 50.1 innings over that stretch. Note that Fulmer has been particularly tough at home, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.04 ERA. We’re expecting Fulmer to easily outduel his volatile counterpart and for the TIGERS to get back into the win column after yesterday’s collapse. AAA Sports |
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07-16-16 | White Sox v. Angels -137 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Angels. A couple of starters who have seen better days go head-to-head on Saturday night and only one will walk away with a victory. The visitors hand the ball to James Shields (4-10, 5.42 ERA) who looked decent in his last start vs. the soft-hitting Braves on Sunday, allowing two runs off six hits over seven innings of work. To his credit, Shields now has three consecutive quality starts, but we’re still obviously hesitant to say that the veteran has “turned the corner.” Note that Shields is a horrible 1-4 with a ballooned 6.94 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (4-9, 4.45) who would give up three earned runs off five hits while also striking out four over six innings in a 9-5 victory over the hard-hitting Orioles on Friday. Shoemaker’s win/loss record is not entirely indicative of how he’s actually played this year as he’s put together a stretch of seven quality starts in his last eight trips to the hill. While he’s just 1-4 at home, he’s posted a respectable 3.86 ERA. Until Shields can string together a few more decent outings, we’re going to remain unconvinced, while all signs do indeed point to Shoemaker having a strong second half. The price is right on this one, play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-16-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -160 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Miami opened the second half with a 7-6 win in yesterday’s series opener, but we think the home side will bounce back in fine fashion this evening as its “ace” has continued to improve as the season has progressed. Adam Wainwright (8-5, 4.49 ERA) most recently gave up one run off five hits while walking one and striking out nine in a dominant win over the Pirates. Wainwright missed most of last year and got out to a poor start this season, but he’s since regained his form and will now be looking to improve upon his already impressive, 4-2, 2.93 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. The visitors counter with Tom Koehler (6-7, 4.50) who has moved in the opposite direction of his counterpart, regressing as the season has progressed. Koehler was most recently blasted for three runs off seven hits over just four frames, in what turned out to be a 7-3 win over the Reds on Sunday. Note that Koehler has been particularly pedestrian on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA. Wainwright seems primed for a big second half and we think he’s well worth the price of admission in what we feel to be a big pitching mismatch. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-16 | Giants -200 v. Padres | 1-4 | Loss | -200 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the San Francisco Giants. Madison Bumgarner (10-1, 1.94 ERA) is a big reason why the Giants closed the first half with the best record in baseball. In his last start before the half-way point he’d throw a complete game one hitter while striking out 14 in a 4-0 victory over Arizona on Sunday. Bumgarner would walk just one in the commanding performance. Bumgarner has been awesome on the road so far, going 5-2 with a very respectable 2.38 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (3-7, 5.40) who was rocked for eight runs off eight hits with three walks over just two innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Cashner would give up six extra-base hits in total, including four home runs. Cashner owns a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We think San Francisco puts the hammer down to open the second half and we expect Bumgarner to take full advantage of another favorable matchup. Play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds -127 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Cincinnati Reds. With an over/under line of 9, clearly the oddsmakers are expecting some runs in this National League contest. One of these starters has been excellent over the last month and a half, while the other has steadily regressed. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Garza (1-2, 5.54 ERA) who most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over just 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. Garza looked decent in his first two outings of the year, but he’s now given up 15 earned runs in his last 16 innings of work and has dropped two in a row. Note that Garza has been particularly horrible on the road this season, 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Anthony DeSclafani (3-0, 2.23) who gave up three runs off eight hits while striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. Since returning from the DL on June 10th, DeSclafani has gone 3-0 with a very respectable 2.23 ERA. In five of his last six games he’s worked at least six frames and in three of his outings he’s worked into the seventh. And note that DeSclafani has been particularly sharp at home, going 1-0 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA. When taking into account what we feel to be a big talent discrepancy on the mound today, there’s no question we’re getting the REDS at a great price in this clear pitching mismatch. AAA Sports |
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07-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -225 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH San Francisco Giants. We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Archie Bradley (3-4, 4.81 ERA) who most recently gave up five runs off six hits with three walks over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Monday. Bradley would go on to give up two long-balls, the third time he’s been shelled for multiple homers in the same game this year. Bradley has decent strikeout numbers, but he’s allowed a poor 4.3 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9 in nine starts this season. And unfortunately for Bradley a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s a brutal 1-3 with 6.20 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with ace Madison Bumgarner (9-4, 2.09) who went six scoreless vs. the Rockies on Tuesday, scattering four hits to go along with six K’s in the eventual unfortunate no-decision. The southpaw has now given up just 12 runs over his past eight starts with an unreal 61:13 K:BB ratio. The Giants have to be liking their chances today obviously as Bumgarner is 4-2 with a tiny 1.86 ERA at home so far this season. No need to overanalyze this one, all signs point to the volatile Bradley getting chased early. Play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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07-10-16 | Braves v. White Sox -163 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -163 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST). James Shields is laboring through his worst campaign of his career. Shields (4-9, 5.67 ERA) has slowly started to turn the corner over his last two outings and we think the time is right to pull the trigger and capatalize on this under-achieving hurler. Shields would most recently hold the Yanks to two runs off five hits over six innings. Both runs were given up on a long-ball to Chase Headly, but that would be the only blemish on the day. Shields has now won two of his last three starts behind a very respectable 3.06 ERA and 11 K’s in 17.2 innings of work. The visitors counter with Mike Foltynewicz (2-3, 4.29) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a setback to the light-hitting Phillies on Tuesday. It was the second time in his three-year career that he’s given up four home runs in a single game. Note that he’s a poor 1-3 with an atrocious 6.20 ERA on the road this season. In no way will we try to convince you that Shields is “back,” clearly the veteran has a long way to go before he can start to convince people of that. However, we feel this is a great “situational” play as Shields has indeed shown signs of his old form. And that’s bad news for Foltynewicz and the Braves’ anemic lineup today. Lay the price with confidence on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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07-09-16 | Yankees v. Indians -152 | 7-6 | Loss | -152 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (5-6, 3.48 ERA) who comes into this one off a loss vs. the soft-hitting White Sox on Monday, allowing five runs over six innings. It was the veterans third straight outing in which he’s been rocked for at least five runs. Note that Sabathia is a poor 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.36 ERA in all “day” games this year. The home side counters with Danny Salazar (10-3, 2.36) who gave up three runs off eight hits with one walk to go along with six K’s over 5.2 innings in an eventual no-decision vs. Detroit on Monday. Salazar though has now worked at least 5.2 frames and given up three runs or fewer in each of his past seven outings dating back to late May. Note that Salazar has been particularly tough in this spot all year as well, going 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA in all “day” games and 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We’re banking on the home side coming into this one focused as it looks to finish the first half with one final win streak. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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07-09-16 | Reds v. Marlins -185 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Miami Marlins. We think this is an even bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe as we can’t foresee any sort of a letdown from Adam Conley and the home side today. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling John Lamb (1-5, 5.43 ERA) who was most recently rocked for eight runs off eight hits (including three dingers) and four walks over just four innings in a 12-1 loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Lamb struggled with control throughout and threw just 51 of his 92 pitches for strikes. Lamb is sputtering into the break and is a dispicable 1-3 with an 8.51 ERA on the road thus far. Conley (5-5, 3.65) has for the most part been as solid as the Marlins could possibly ask for this season and he’s been particularly tough at home, posting a highly respectable 3.29 ERA. We’re not big fans of Conley’s, but he’s certainly the superior starter in this particular matchup. We’re expecting him to easily outduel his pathetic counterpart. Play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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07-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -153 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Francisco Giants. Patrick Corbin (4-6, 4.90 ERA) has for the most part been a disaster this year. He’s shown flashes of briliance at times this season, but for the most part he’s yet to resemble his pre-Tommy John surgery self, most recently he was rocked for six runs off seven hits with five walks over just 4.1 innings vs. Colorado on Sunday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his pathetic effort. Corbin has been decent on the road surprisingly (3.46 ERA), but horrible in all “night” games with a ballooned 5.10 ERA. The home side counters with veteran Jeff Samardzija (8-5, 3.97), who jumped out to a great start to his 2016 campaign, but who has been a bit all over the place with his game to game consistency of late. Samardzija though looked pretty good in his last start vs. these very same Diamondbacks, giving up four runs over eight innings while striking out five and walking none, earning a no-decision in the eventual 6-5 setback on Saturday. Samardzija has been solid in this position all season, going 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home and 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA in all “night” games. We feel that Samardzija should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup, the value is simply too good to turn down today. Lay the price with confidence on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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07-08-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -159 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. We had a play on the Blue Jays yesterday and they managed to gut out a late inning victory. Toronto has now won six straight and we think it it will keep the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done once again on Friday. The visitors hand the ball to the beleagured Mike Pelfrey (2-7, 5.17 ERA) who has been a bit better of late, but who has for the most part been a major disappointment this year. Pelfrey is holding onto his starting rotation job by the skin of his teeth and mainly out of neccessity, he won’t be striking too much fear into the Jays’ hard-hitting lineup with his poor 1-5, 4.96 ERA “night” game record. The home side counters with JA Happ (11-3, 3.54) who gave up one run off five hits while striking out 11 over seven innings in a 17-2 victory over Cleveland on Sunday. Happ continued the run of consistent performances and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his 6-1, 4.02 ERA record in friendly confines. We’re giving Happ the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-07-16 | Padres +140 v. Dodgers | 6-0 | Win | 140 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Padres. The Friars pulled off the 13-6 victory in Arizona last night and we’re expecting them to build off that performance and find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done this evening as well. San Diego turns to ace Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65 ERA) who has been particularly tough on the road, posting a tiny 2.66 ERA. He’s been even better in all “night” games so far, going 5-3 with a tiny 1.98 ERA. Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-0, 0.00) gets the call for the home side, he’s making his season debut, finally returning from a lengthy re-hab which saw him miss all of last year. Ryu isn’t expected to go very deep into this one as he would not even throw more than 84 pitching in any of his eight rehab outings. No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the book is still clearly out on Ryu, while Pomeranz is putting together the finest campaign of his career. The value is awesome in this situation, play on the PADRES. AAA Sports |
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07-07-16 | Mariners v. Royals -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Royals. The Royals return home in a foul mood after getting swept in Toronto. Obviously both Seattle and Kansas City will be anxious to close out the first half with a winning series, but we think this pitching matchup favors the home side. The Mariners send the struggling James Paxton (2-3, 4.24 ERA) to the hill, he was fortunate to earn a victory vs. the Orioles on Saturday despite giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over 5.2 innings of work. Paxton has regressed as the season has progressed and has now given up 12 earned runs over his last 18.1 innings of work. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this year as well, going just 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA. The home side counters with the red hot Danny Duffy (4-1, 3.11) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out eight and walking none over 8.2 innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Saturday. Over his last 16.2 innings of work, Duffy has allowed just four runs (2.16 ERA) and struck out 16 with zero walks. He’s now struck out at least eight in five of his last six starts and in three of his last six outings he’s had at least eight K’s and no walks. Duffy owns a very respectable, 3-1, 3.96 ERA in all night games this year. We’re giving Duffy the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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07-07-16 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -115 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. After losing the first two in Cleveland, Detroit bounced back in the finale, beating the Tribe 12-2 yesterday. This is the final series for both teams before the All-Star break and we think the visitors have a bit of a letdown here in the opener. The Tigers send Justin Verlander (8-6, 4.11 ERA) to the hill, he comes in off a decent outing vs. the soft-hitting Rays on Saturday, giving up two runs off four hits over seven innings. Verlander has been inconsistent of late though, as he’d been rocked hard in his previous start. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.08 ERA on the road thus far. Toronto has won five straight and has woken up at the plate again. With a four game series to close the first half, we think the home side continues to build momentum into the break. Marco Estrada has been shutdown until after the All Star game, meaning that Drew Hutchinson will get his shot again tonight. Hutchinson of course has a ton of experience in the major leagues and was just recently recalled from the minors, where he had posted a very respectable 2.78 ERA and 97 K’s in 87.1 innings of work. Verlander has steadily regressed as the season has progressed and we don’t think he has any advantage over Hutchinson here (neither do the oddsmakers clearly). All signs point to the visitors coming in flat after their big win over Cleveland, while Toronto looks to assert itself in the opener. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-06-16 | Brewers v. Nationals -168 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BUTT WHOOPIN’ on the Washington Nationals. Veteran Matt Garza (1-1, 3.74 ERA) gets the nod for the Brewers today, he hasn’t looked spectacular since returning to the majors and was 6-14 with a 5.43 ERA last year. Garza has already struggled in this spot as well, posting a rather pedestrian 4.86 ERA in night games. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (7-5, 2.93) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Reds on Friday, giving up just two earned runs over seven innings. It was Roark’s third straight quality outing and was the third time in a row that he’s gone seven frames as well. Roark has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he owns a tiny 2.29 ERA at home and a fantastic 1.69 ERA in all “day” games. After yesterday’s 5-2 setback, we’re expecting the home side to come in focused and for Roark to outduel his suspect counterpart. Lay the price with confidence on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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07-06-16 | Marlins v. Mets -174 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MONSTER DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. Here’s a major mismatch. Jacob DeGrom’s record is not indicative of how well he’s thrown this season and suffice it to say, we look for the Mets’ ace to find a way to outduel his struggling counterpart. The Fish hand the ball to Justin Nicolino (2-4, 5.34 ERA), who was rocked for four runs off seven hits and one strikeout over five frames in a fortunate no-decision vs. the light-hitting Braves on Friday. Nicolino has now failed to register a victory in any of his last nine starts and has been very feeble in this spot all season, going 1-2 with a 5.73 ERA on the road. DeGrom (4-4, 2.62) most recently allowed an earned run off three hits while also striking out seven over five innings in a 10-2 win over the Cubs on Friday. DeGrom was sharp overall in the rain-delayed outing, throwing 52 of 85 pitches for K’s, while also inducing 11 swinging strikes. Note the DeGrom has been very good at home, going 3-2 with a highly respectable 2.44 ERA thus far. We look for the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 loss and for DeGrom to punch another one into the win column. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-16 | Orioles v. Dodgers -146 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -146 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes “recent performance” is the best indicator we have in properly judging starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Kenta Maeda has a big advantage over his counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Tillman (10-2, 3.71 ERA) who has been excellent this season, but who comes in off a dud in which he was rocked for four earned runs over just four innings in a 5-3 loss to the Mariners on Thursday. That’s back-to-back outings in which Tillman has struggled now and it marked his third straight start in which he’s given up at least four earned runs. He’d also give up a home run for his eighth time in his last nine starts. Maeda (7-5, 2.82) comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Brewers on Thursday, going six innings and allowing just a single run off three scattered hits. In four starts in June Maeda would post a 2.73 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 2.99 ERA in all “night” contests. Baltimore has lost five straight, while LA comes in with a ton of momentum, winner of five in a row. All signs point a lop-sided beatdown, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-16 | Tigers v. Indians -186 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ELITE INSIDER on the Cleveland Indians. The visitors hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez (5-8, 6.05 ERA), who is filling the void left by the injured Jordan Zimmermann. In 12 starts this year, Sanchez is 3-7 with a 6.71 ERA, 1.654 WHIP, 51:31 K:BB ratio spanning 61.2 innings of work. Note that Sanchez has been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going 2-4 with an atrocoius 6.41 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 2.56) who comes in off a commanding effort vs. the Toronto on Thursday, allowing just one run off three hits with two walks while striking out 14 in the victory. Since returning from the DL, Carrasco has been “lights out,” posting a very respectable 2.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, while stirking out 29 in 34 innings of work. Carrrasco will now look to improve upon his 3.80 ERA home record. Carrasco has been dominating and we simply can’t see Sanchez keeping pace. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -170 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Royals are a bad road team this year, after falling 6-2 in yesterday’s opner, they’re now just 16-28 away from friendly confines thus far. The struggling Chris Young gets the nod for the visitors, he’s given up at least one dinger in each of his 12 starts for a major league leading 22 to date. The home side counters with RA Dickey, who is 4-3 with a 4.20 ERA in 14 regular season matchups vs. the Royals (note that Young is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in four regular-season starts vs. Toronto). We’ll give Dickey the slight nod in this matchup, but clearly the Jays have the big advantage in the motivation department: "More than anything this is the defending World Series champs," Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Pillar said before Monday’s game. "Naturally you want to elevate your game for that. This is the team that knocked us out of the postseason, took everything that we worked extremely hard for away from us. We had some altercations with them, some incidents with them so, yeah, it's formed a little bit of a rivalry." Lay the price with confidence on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-04-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -175 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this particular case, we feel the home side should in fact be a much larger one. The visitors hand the ball to the inconsistent Edinson Volquez (7-7, 4.89 ERA) who actually comes in off a decent outing vs. the Cardinals on Wednesday, scattering six hits over 6.2 innings of no-hit ball. Volquez though had given up 12 runs in just one inning vs. the Astros in his previous start and it was just the second time in six outings that he didn’t walk at least two batters. Note that Volquez has struggled on the road this year, going just 2-4 with a poor 5.67 ERA. The home side counters with ace Aaron Sanchez (8-1, 3.16) who comes in off another dominating outing, this time vs. the Rockies at hitter friendly Coors Park on Wednesday, allowing only one run off six hits over eight innings, walking two and striking out three in the commanding performance. Sanchez now owns the seventh-best ERA in the AL at 3.08, while ranking fourth with 105.1 innings of work to this point. Sanchez has won his last seven decisions and he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 5-1, 2.52 ERA record in all “night” games. All signs point to a lop-sided rout from start to finish, lay the price with confidence on Sanchez and the hard-hitting BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-04-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -178 | 4-2 | Loss | -178 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we believe the home side should in fact be a much larger one. The visitors hand the ball to the inconsistent Jonathon Niese (6-6, 5.07 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off nine hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Tuesday. Niese has now given up four earned runs in each of his past four starts and has allowed 19 homers in just 16 outings this year (seven of which have come in his past four trips to the hill). Note that Niese has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, posting a poor 4.26 ERA in “day” games and an even worse 5.32 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (7-5, 2.83) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Royals on Wednesday, going six shutout frames, allowing eight hits and one walk with three K’s. It was his fourth straight start in which he’s posted at least 12 ground ball outs and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 2.94 ERA in all day contests this season. We think the hard-hitting home side takes full advantage and expect Martinez to outduel his struggling counterpart. Lay the price with confidence on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-04-16 | Angels v. Rays -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are coming off a disappointing 0-4 series loss at home to the Tigers over the weekend and will be especially motivated this afternoon. The Angels are coming off a wild series in Boston and we think they’ll come out a bit flat in the opener of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Tropeano (3-2, 3.25 ERA) who was sent to the minors a couple of weeks ago after sustaining a shoulder injury. Tropeano has been quite good for the Angels in his limited time this season, but if he’s had one weakness, it’s been his performance in all “day” games, where he’s just 0-1 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA. The home side counters with Matt Moore (4-5, 4.67) who went seven scoreless innings vs. Boston on Wednesday, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out six. Moore has no2 thrown seven scoreless frames in two of his last four trips to the mound and has in fact been very sharp in this position all year, going 4-2 with 3.67 ERA at home and 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in all day contests. Desperation breeds motivation, in our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-03-16 | Pirates v. A's -134 | 6-3 | Loss | -134 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A’s. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA) who was rocked for five runs over four innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Monday, allowing four hits and five walks. Liriano has clearly lost a step this year and has now walked 29 batters in his last seven appearances while also failing to go more than six innings in any of those. Note that Liriano has been particularly horrible on the road this year as well, just 1-4 with an atrocious 6.98 ERA. The home side counters with rookie Daniel Mengden (1-3, 2.81) who has the highly respectable 2.81 ERA and 1.17 during his 25.2 innings of work to open his career. He’s also coming in off a stellar and confidence boosting performance on Monday, allowing just two runs off four scattered his over 7.2 innings, having the shutout through seven. Mengden owns an impressive K:BB of 26:9 and 2.92 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We think Mengden has the advantage here, the Pirates have never seen the kid throw, while the book is clearly out on the volatile Liriano. All things considered, we feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports |
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07-03-16 | Tigers v. Rays -140 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Tampa Bay Rays. Is Chris Archer really as bad as what he’s shown for most of the first half of the season? He doesn’t seem to think so and is convinced he can turn things around sooner than later. Archer obviously has to work on his mechanics and while it won’t be an over night change, all the talent and tools are still in place to return to form. We think the beleagured Tampa Bay “ace” has a real opportunity to start that process today in what is a clear pitching mistmatch. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Mike Pelfrey (2-7, 5.02 ERA) who is holding onto his starting rotation position by the skin of his teeth and mainly out of neccessity. Pelfrey actually comes in off a victory despite getting rocked for four runs off 12 hits over five innings vs. the Marlins on Tuesday. Batters are slugging an unsightly .337 vs. him and his 1.74 WHIP is the absolute worst among qualifying starters (note that Pelfrey is 0-5 with a 4.19 ERA on the road this year). Archer (4-11, 4.76) faced one of the league’s most potent offenses and gave up four runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out nine in a setback to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Archer has actually pitched well at home though, he’ll be looking to improve upon his respectable 3.00 ERA in Tampa Bay. We like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 loss and for Archer to outduel his pathetic counterpart. Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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07-02-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers -173 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Dodgers. Chad Bettis (6-5, 5.84 ERA) has regressed as the season has progressed and he’s been particularly poor of late, most recently getting shelled for seven runs off 12 hits with three walks over five innings in a setback to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Note that Bettis owns a poor 5.23 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with southpaw Scott Kazmir (6-3, 4.67) who gave up four runs off four hits with four walks and four K’s to beat the Pirates in his last outing. Kazmir gave up all four runs in the first inning and was able to immediately settle down though and throw a gem the rest of the way. Kazmir hasn’t lost since May 9th and owns a 9.24 K/9 ratio. We think Kazmir should be a much bigger fav in this spot, Bettis has been brutal in this position all season and we don’t see that trend changing tonight. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-02-16 | Reds v. Nationals -200 | 9-4 | Loss | -200 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Washington Nationals. Washinton managed to gut out an extra innings victory vs. the lowly Reds last night and we’re looking for the hard-hitting home side to build off the win and to carry that momentum over into this one. The Reds hand the ball to Dan Straily (4-5, 4.38 ERA) who was rocked for seven runs off nine hits and three walks over just 3.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Monday. Straily has regressed as the season has progressed and has now given up a ghastly 17 runs over his last 14 innings of work. Unfortunately for Straily, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s a poor 2-4 with a 5.22 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Joe Ross (7-4, 3.30) who earned a victory vs. the Mets on Monday despite giving up four runs off ten hits with a walk and seven K’s over six innings. Ross is now 4-0 in his last seven trips to the hill and has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 3-2 with a respectable 3.96 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year and an even better 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA in all “night” games. We’re banking on the home side to jump out to an early lead and to never look back. Lay the price with confidence on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-01-16 | White Sox v. Astros -170 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Houston Astros. No need to overthink this one. Miguel Gonzalez is struggling, while for the most part Mike Fiers has been excellent. This is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, indeed swinging the value onto the home side in this matchup. Gonzalez (1-3, 5.17 ERA) was rocked for eight earned runs off ten hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a 10-8 loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday. Gonzalez has now given up a total of 15 earned runs combined in two of his last three trips to the hill and obviously draws a tough matchup throwing opposite Fiers (5-3, 4.41) who earned a no-decision vs. the Royals on Saturday, allowing three runs (two earned) off nine hits over 4.1 innings. Despite the mediocre effort, Fiers has now allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts and he has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s posted a very respectable 4-2, 3.23 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. Gonzalez is heading to the bullpen after this start, we simply can’t see the struggling hurler “flipping a switch.” Lay the price with confidence on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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07-01-16 | Reds v. Nationals -200 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals. Anthony DeSclafani (2-0, 1.52 ERA gets the nod for the visitors, he’d most recently hold the Friars scoreless over eight innings on Sunday, giving up five scattered hits to go along with five K’s in the dominant performance. There was some room to read between the lines though in the impressive outing though, as he’d only generate six swinging strikes among his 117 pitches. DeSclafani has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concered in his limited time so far this year and he obviously draws a touch matchup throwing opposite the tested Tanner Roark (7-5, 2.96) who also comes in off a shutout effort, giving up no runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over Milwaukee on Sunday. Roark has now registered quality starts in six of his last eight outings and has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s posted a very respectable 2.25 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. Despite how well DeSclafani pitched in his last outing, we’re giving the big nod to Roark in this matchup. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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06-30-16 | Twins v. White Sox -160 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* “ASSASSIN” on the Chicago White Sox. We think Carlos Rodon and the White Sox are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors turn to Tommy Milone (0-2, 5.33) who returned to the majors to face the Yankees on Friday and would promptly get rocked for four runs off six hits with three walks and one K over 3.2 innings in the setback. Milone will remain in the rotation as the Twins have little options, he’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA on the road this year. Rodon’s 2-6, 4.09 ERA record is not indicative of the way he’s been throwing of late. Most recently he gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Jays on Friday. Rodon has now held his opposition to two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts and has to be feeling pretty confident in this position, as he owns a highly respectable 2.64 ERA in all “day” games this year. These are two teams equally as desperate for a win, but this is also a clear pitching mismatch. We have a very hard time seeing Rodon and the White Sox coming in complacent and look for this focus to ultimately pave the way to a relatively easy victory once it’s all said and done. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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06-29-16 | Blue Jays -140 v. Rockies | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ace Aaron Sanchez (7-1, 3.33 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently allowed two runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no decision vs. the White Sox on Friday. Sanchez though has now held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts and has been particularly effective away from friendly confines, posting a 5-0, 2.48 ERA record on the road thus far. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (0-1, 2.55) who allowed two runs off four hits and walk over 5.2 innings while also taking an unfortunate no decision vs. the Marlins on Sunday. Despite the strong numbers though, there was some room to read between the lines as Anderson managed only seven swinging strikes and would ring up some deep counts throughout his time on the mound. Sanchez should be a much bigger fav here, this one definitely favors the Jays’ big bats, play on Toronto. AAA Sports |
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06-29-16 | Cubs -207 v. Reds | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 5* FAN APPRECIATION DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. This is a massive pitching mismatch and we’re confident that Kyle Hendricks comes in focused on the task at hand and takes full advantage of this favorable situation. Hendricks (5-6, 2.76 ERA) gave up a grand slam to the Marlins on Friday and took a no-decision. It was his only hit over five innings while also striking out five. Hendricks was effective despite the grand slam, managing first-pitch strikes on 14 of 22 opponents he faced. Hendricks has had a fantastic June, posting a 2.45 ERA; also note that he owns a very respectable 3.09 ERA in all “day” games this season. The home side counters with rookie Cody Reed (0-1, 6.75) who after a decent debut vs. the Astros last Saturday, would immediately take a step back vs. the light-hitting Friars on Friday, getting shelled for five earned runs off nine hits over five innings in the 13-4 setback. The pressure is on the Cubs to respond after a sluggish stretch, so the team won’t be looking past their lowly opponent today. Instead each and every person who plays will be feeling accountable. In our professional opinion, Hendricks and the CUBS are well worth the price of admission in this spot. AAA Sports |
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06-28-16 | Blue Jays -135 v. Rockies | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto seemed in control with their ace on the mound in yesterday’s interleague series opener with Colorado as it had a 4-0 lead heading into the sixth inning. But then everything unraveled and the visitors would go on to lose 9-5. We think the hard-hitting Jays bounce back this evening though and look for JA Happ to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Happ (9-3, 3.42 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off six hits and four walks while striking out a season-high eight in a victory over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. It was Happ’s third straight victory and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.63 ERA road record. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.71) who was shelled for six runs off 11 hits in a loss to Arizona on Thursday. Butler has been particularly horrible at home this year, going 1-1 with a 9.70 ERA. Recent performance plays a big part in our handicapping repertoire, we’re giving Happ the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to indeed tip the scales in favor of the visitors. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-28-16 | Pirates v. Mariners -137 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. Both team’s come into this game needing to string some wins together to get back into the pennant race. Pittsburgh is now three games under .500, Monday’s deflating loss to the Dodgers left the Pirates with a brutal 8-18 mark in June. Seattle can empathize, its starting rotation has been hit with the injury bug and the over-worked bullpen would predictably fall part. The visitors hand the ball to Jonathan Niese (6-5, 4.93 ERA) who after a decent start to the season has completely fallen apart, most recently coming off his third straight loss, giving up five runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out four in Thursday’s setback to the Giants. Over the stretch of futility Niese has given up 17 earned runs on 24 hits, including six dingers (and note that he owns a poor 5.03 ERA on the road). Hisashi Iwakuma (6-6, 4.45) gets the call for the home side, he also comes into this one off an outing to forget in which he was blasted for five runs on 11 hits and three walks in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. For arguments sake, we’re calling the starters a “wash,” but we’re giving Seattle the big nod at the plate, Pittsburgh has been downright putrid with its production and we think that trend continues here. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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06-28-16 | Indians -165 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Corey Kluber (7-7, 3.59 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, after a slow start to the season he’s come on like gang-busters, most recently allowing three hits and two walks while striking out nine over a complete game shutout victory over Tampa Bay on Tuesday. It was Kluber’s second complete game in his las three trips to the hill. Kluber has been solid on the road this season, going 4-3 with a very respectable 3.52 ERA. His counterpart is Matt Wisler (3-7, 4.22) who gave up three runs off seven hits with four walks with just one K over 6.2 innings in a no-decision vs. the Mets on Thursday. Wisler’s lack of strikeouts (61 in 89.2 innings of work) and his home run issues are the reason why he’s such a big underdog this evening. Also note that he’s just 1-5 with a pedestrian 4.45 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The price is right today, we expect Kluber to continue his strong play and for Wisler to get chased early, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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06-28-16 | Rangers -110 v. Yankees | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Texas Rangers. Both Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia are putting together resurgent seasons. Both of their numbers though suggest that they’re likely to get rocked in the very near future. The visitors hand the ball to ace Hamels (8-1, 2.79 ERA) who comes in off a dominant outing vs. the Reds on Wednesday, allowing just one run off five scattered hits over six innings in the 6-4 win. Hamels’ peripherals aren’t great as his 1.40 HR/9 and 3.44 BB/9 are both career worsts, while his 4.57 FIP is horrible. Hamels will be opposed by Yanks veteran Sabathia, who like his counterpart today, has opened the season strong, but who has also shown some “cracks in the armor.” Sabathia (5-4, 2.20 ERA) is approaching 36 years old and while he’s been superb to this point, like Hamels there’s plenty of tell tale signs that the southpaw is about to take a step back, as his FIP is a full point higher than his ERA and his xFIP (which is considred by most experts as being the best predictor for future ERA) is more than two runs higher. Also note that he’s a rather pedestrian 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. We’ll call the starters a “wash,” but we’re giving a big nod to the Rangers’ bats in this matchup. Texas rallied to win 9-6 in yesterday’s opener and we think the surging visitors keep the momentum rolling today. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-27-16 | Indians -168 v. Braves | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are rolling, most recently coming off their third straight series sweep of the Tigers over the weekend. While it was far from fantastic, the Braves have been playing much better this month and would take the finale of their four game series with the Mets 5-2 yesterday. This is a significant mismatch on the mound though, a much larger one in our opinion than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Trevor Bauer (5-2, 3.20 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently scattered three hits with ten strikeouts with just a single run in a complete game victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Over his last four outings Bauer has struck out 32 batters over 31.2 innings of work, while allowing just six walks. Bauer comes into this one having pitched at least seven innings in five straight starts and his 0.64 HR/9 and 2.88 BB/9 are both career bests. The home side counters with John Gant (1-2, 4.45) who gave up three runs off seven hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to Miami on Wednesday. Gant has been decent in his limited time, but note that he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 7.36 ERA in all home games this season. The Tribe are on a wicked surge and there’s no reason not to think that momentum won’t get carried over here in what is a big pitching mismatch. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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06-26-16 | Red Sox v. Rangers +100 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Texas Rangers. Veteran Red Sox’ hurler Clay Buchholz comes in off a couple of decent efforts, while the Rangers’ Martin Perez has struggled in two straight outings. We’re not reading too much into these recent results and think that the home side has a clear advantage in this particular matchup. Buchholz (3-7, 5.83 ERA) would give up three runs off four hits and a walk over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Tuesday. For Buchholz, the performance represented perhaps his best outing of the year. The struggling starter has now given up 14 home runs on the season and his 1.8 HR/9 is the worst of his career. Not surprisingly, Buchholz has struggled in this position all season, posting a poor 6.14 ERA on the road. Perez (6-4, 3.57) gave up four runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no decision vs. St. Louis on Sunday. After four straight quality starts, Perez has now given up eight runs in 12.1 innings of work. Perez though has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back in this spot as he’s already a solid 3-1 with a 4.58 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. In our opinion, this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, the value has definitely swung in favor of the home side. Play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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06-25-16 | A's v. Angels -130 | 7-3 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the LA Angels. Dillon Overton (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his debut in the bigs tonight. Overton has been sharp of late in Triple-A, going 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. The rookie clearly has a tough task in facing this hungry Angels line-up which will be out to avenge yesterday’s 7-4 setback. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (3-5, 5.50) who after a fantastic start to the season, comes in off a couple of duds. Most recently he’d get blasted for six runs over two innings vs. the surging Astros on Monday. Chacin though has posted a respectable 2-1, 4.50 ERA at home this season. Here’s the perfect opponent and counterpart to get untracked against, we’re looking for Chacin to outduel his young counterpart and for the ANGELS to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. AAA Sports |
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06-25-16 | Mets -135 v. Braves | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Saturday night, but we think the advantage lies with the visitors. The Mets turn to Jacob DeGrom (3-4, 2.96 ERA) who comes in off a loss despite a quality start, giving up three runs off five hits over six innings in an eventual 6-0 loss to these very Braves. Julio Terhan opposed DeGrom in that one and he’ll once again be on the hill for the home side today. DeGrom has five straight quality starts to his name and nine in 12 outings overall, but a lack of run support was just too much for him to overcome last week. Terhan (3-7, 2.66) was dealing in that contest, striking out seven in the shutout performance. Teheran had a rough April, but has turned things around of late, but note that he’s 0-4 with a pedestrian 3.28 ERA at home this year. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor, we love DeGrom and the Mets to respond today and to find a way to get the job done vs. the lowly Braves. Play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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06-24-16 | Astros v. Royals +109 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Royals. Dallas Keuchel has been a train-wreck this year and has been particularly brutal on the road. Edinson Volquez has been more consistent and has certainly been sharp in front of the home town crowd. We played this selection on Thursday night, Kansas City was/is the slight home dog and suffice it to say, we think the oddsmakers have made a big mistake here. Keuchel (3-9, 5.32 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the soft-hitting Reds on Saturday. As noted above though, Keuchel has struggled in this position all season, going 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA in all “night” contests and an even worse 2-6 with a ballooned 5.91 ERA in all road games. Volquez (7-6, 4.22) comes in off a win despite allowing five runs off eight hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings vs. the Tigers on Saturday. There was a silver lining for Volquez, who was staked to an early lead and who was able to pound the strike zone throughout, in that for a third straight outing he’d not issue a single walk. Note that Volquez is 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in Kansas City so far this season. Is Keuchel the better pitcher in this matchup? He won the the Cy Young Award last year, but clearly he’s not the same right now. Volquez and the ROYALS are the correct move here. AAA Sports |
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06-24-16 | Twins v. Yankees -220 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Yankees. This is a major pitching mismatch. The visitors hand the ball to Tommy Milone (0-1, 5.79 ERA) who was recalled by Minnesota to fill Pat Dean’s spot in the rotation. Milone made five earlier appearances for the Twins already this year, including four starts and enters this contest with a poor 5.79 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for his efforts. The home side counters with ace Masahiro Tanaka (4-2, 2.91) who gave up one run off seven hits while striking out five over eight innings to earn the victory on Friday over the Twins. Tanaka has now given up two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts to lower his ERA to 2.91. New York will be hungry to finally move back to .500 with a victory today and with what is clearly the superior starter backing it, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided destruction. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-23-16 | Diamondbacks -150 v. Rockies | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s a difficult task throwing at Coors Field for any pitcher. All things being equal though, this a major mismatch on the mound today and we’re not going to have any issues in laying the price. Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.54 ERA) is dominating, he’s coming off his seventh straight win, going eight innings and giving up three hits in a 4-1 victory over Philadelphia on Saturday. He’d need just 94 pitches to get through the very effecient outing and he’d go on to notch first pitch strikes on 21 of 28 hittings and induced 18 swinging strikes overall. Greinke has been particularly dominant on the road as well, going 5-0 with a tiny 1.47 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.26) who returns from the bullpen to fill a void in the rotation. Butler has poor strikeout numbers and an atrocious 9.37 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Greinke would have been a much bigger fav in this exact position a year ago. The value today is on the visitors, play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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06-22-16 | Rays v. Indians -115 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Cleveland Indians. What’s up with this line? We think the oddsmakers are giving Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays much too much respect in this matchup as we look for under-the-radar Indians’ hurler Trevor Bauer to continue his excellent season and to find a way to outduel his struggling counterpart once it’s all said and done. Archer (4-9, 4.60 ERA) was most recently shelled for four runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. The beleagured right-hander needed 107 pitches to get through six innings and he’s now allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts. His WHIP stands at a disappointing 1.44 and he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going 3-4 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA on the road. Bauer (4-2, 3.46) is coming off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox on Friday, going seven innings and allowing only one run off four hits while striking out nine. It was his fifth straight quality outing and he’d avoid giving up a home run for a third straigh start. Note that Bauer is 3-0 with a tiny 2.65 ERA in all “night” contests this year. We’re giving Bauer the big nod on the bump in this matchup and that, along with what we deem to be an extremely reasonable line, more than tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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06-22-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -125 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Detroit Tigers. Great price on the superior starter. The visitors turn to the erratic Hisashi Iwakuma (6-5, 4.18 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Iwakuma most recently gave up four runs off nine hits and a walk over seven innings in Friday’s 8-4 win over the Red Sox. The Japanese hurler’s strikeouts are way down, just 23 in his last 35 innings of work and he’s giving up the long ball with a career-high 1.39 HR/9 ratio. The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (7-2, 2.43) who comes in off an unfortunate loss to Kansas City on Friday, going six innings and allowing just one run off five scattered hits to go along with five K’s. Fulmer’s 8.7 K/9 ratio, along with his 94.7 MPH fastball make him one of the most touted prospects in the league right now. We like the home side to build off yesterday’s 4-2 victory and for Fulmer to outduel his inconsistent counterpart, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-21-16 | Giants -170 v. Pirates | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the San Francisco Giants. We think the Giants bounce back after yesterday’s 1-0 defeat in what is clearly a very favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (10-1, 2.10 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits while walking one and striking out nine in a victory over the Brewers on Wednesday. He’s now won seven straight decisions and his walk rate is at a career low. Cueto has been particularly effective on the road, going 6-0 with a 2.28 ERA and he’s 7-0 with a 1.74 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Wilfredo Boscan (1-0, 2.92) who has been called up to make a spot start today. This will be Boscan’s season debut, he was decent in Triple-A Indianapolis, posting a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Cueto is once again back among the elite in the entire league and we don’t see him slowing down today. Boscan has promise obviously, but the book is still out on him and certainly he’s being thrown to the wolves vs. the hard-hitting Giants this evening. We’re expecting the visitors to give their ace just enough support to punch another one into the win column. Play on San Francisco. AAA Sports |
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06-21-16 | Diamondbacks v. Blue Jays -161 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. Arizona just dominated the Phillies, including a 5-1 victory on Monday afternoon (we had the Diamondbacks in that one). Now the team transitions North of the border to take on the hard-hitting Jays in an interleague contest. Suffice it to say, all signs definitely point to a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors tonight. Toronto also clearly has a major advantage on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (3-6, 4.76 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Dodgers last time out, giving up three runs off seven hits over six innings, suffering the setback in throwing opposite Clayton Kershaw. Corbin though would allow ten base runners in that one and note that he’s struggled in this spot all season, going just 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA in all night games. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (5-2, 2.58) who went seven innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday, giving up two runs off four hits while striking out five. Estrada has now held his opposition to five hits or fewer in ten straight starts. He also posted his sixth straight quality start while recording five-plus K’s for the fourth consecutive outing. Estrada now leads the AL in WHIP (0.98) and ranks third in ERA. And note that the hard-throwing right-hander has been dominant in this position all season, going 2-1 with a tiny 1.77 ERA at home. We played this one at -160 and while the price will likely climb higher as game time approaches, we’re laying the chalk with confidence and expecting a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-20-16 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies continue to struggle at the plate and managed just three hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss. Things won’t get any easier today in facing a rejuvinated Shelby Miller and by sending the volatile Jeremy Hellickson to the hill. It was Philadelphia’s sixth straight loss Sunday and its tenth out of its last 11. The Diamondbacks come in with a ton of momentum as they’ve won six of their last eight series. Hellickson (4-5, 4.46 ERA) gave up four runs off five hits in a 7-2 setback to Toronto on Wednesday. Over his last three starts he’s walked nine batters and has allowed five home runs. Note that Hellickson owns a pedestrian 4.46 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Miller (1-6, 7.09) was placed on the 15-day DL on May 27th after suffering a sprained finger and would go on to make two rehab starts with High-A Visalia, going 2-0 with a minuscule 0.75 ERA in 12 innings of work. For arguments sake, let’s call the starters a “wash.” But clearly the Diamondbacks are going to get the big nod at the plate. The Phillies will break out of this slump soon, but it’s not going to be today. Arizona is hungry to pile up as many victories as it can after a slow start to the season, we’re not expecting the visitors to take the foot off the gas in what is another very favorable matchup for it. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-19-16 | Rangers v. Cardinals -155 | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the St. Louis Cardinals. We think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the surging Rangers, who would once again somehow find a way to win in yesterday’s 4-3 victory. Conversely, the Cardinals will be the hungrier team without question after letting that one slip away and also after going 0-4 through the first four games of a five-game homestand (St. Louis has actually coughed up eighth and ninth innings leads to cost it two victories in that span). The Cards hand the ball to Mike Leake (5-4, 4.08 ERA) who is 5-1 in his last six decisions, most recently he went seven innings, giving up two runs while striking out six in an 8-3 victory over Pittsburgh. Leake is in complete control right now as he hasn’t walked a batter in his last two starts. The visitors counter with Martin Perez (6-4, 3.38) who snapped a 14-game winless streak on the road with a 10-6 victory over the A’s on Tuesday, giving up four runs off nine hits over seven innings. Yesterday’s victory gave the Rangers nine consecutive series wins, a franchise record and pushed their AL West lead to seven games over the Mariners. We think Perez and his extremely contented team finally have a letdown here. Lay the price with the focused CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-18-16 | Tigers v. Royals -124 | 5-16 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Kansas City Royals. Detroit won the opener of this four game set on Thursday, but the Royals responded with a resounding 10-3 victory last night. With what we feel to be the superior starter backing it today, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (0-1, 4.91 ERA) who was shelled for six runs over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Monday. Boyd has struck out 11 batters in June, but also walked eight. Note that Boyd has not done well in this spot at all this year, going 0-0 with an atrocious 8.68 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Edinson Volquez (6-6, 4.01) who would throw seven scoreless vs. the Indians on Monday, allowing two hits and striking out three. Note that Volquez has dominated in this spot all year, going 4-2 with a tiny 2.06 ERA in front of the home town crowd. With Detroit still trying to adjust without slugger JD Martinez in the lineup who injured himself on Thursday, it’s a great opportunity for us to take advantage of. Lay the price on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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06-17-16 | Rangers v. Cardinals -104 | 1-0 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the St. Louis Cardinals. Cole Hamels (6-1, 3.14 ERA) has been a pleasant suprise for the Rangers this season. Most recently Hamels went seven innings of one run ball in a victory over the Mariners on Sunday. His counterpart though comes in off a gem himself, Michael Wacha (2-6, 4.91) gave up two earned runs off three hits with five K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision. Wacha was able to induce 11 swinging strikes in his second quality start in his last three trips to the hill. We simply feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the surging Rangers, who took three of four from the A’s this week. And despite dropping two straight to the Astros, the Cardinals are still one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 5.25 RPG. Play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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06-16-16 | Yankees -138 v. Twins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Yankees. CC Sabathia has made some major strides quietly and we’re banking on the veteran to continue his under the radar surge. Kyle Gibson on the other hand comes into this game struggling in every aspect. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting the visitors to find a way to get the job done. Sabathia (4-4, 2.28 ERA) most recently went seven innings of shutout ball in a 4-0 win over Detroit on Friday. Sabathia has now thrown 12 innings of shutout ball over his last two starts and has posted seven straight quality outings. Note that the southpaw has dominated in this spot already this year, posting a tiny 2.25 ERA on the road and an even better 2.21 ERA in all “night” games. Gibson (0-4, 6.49) returned from the DL and was promptly lit up for five earned runs off seven hits and a walk over five innings in a 15-4 setback to Boston on Saturday. In his previous start before the injury, Gibson was shelled for seven earned runs over three innings to the Nationals back on Aprill 22nd. Gibson is a horrible 0-2 with a ballooned 12.38 ERA in all night contests this season. We’re expecting Sabathia to easily outduel his struggling counterpart, play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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06-15-16 | Tigers v. White Sox -169 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Chicago White Sox. Mike Pelfrey (1-6, 4.68 ERA) continued his dismal season by giving up four runs off six hits and five walks over six innings in a 4-0 setback to the Yanks on Friday. Pelfrey did manage a second straight quality start, but note that he’s struggled in this spot all year, going a poor 0-4 with a 3.86 ERA on the road and 0-4 with a 4.39 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with ace Chris Sale (10-2, 2.87) who despite giving up three home runs and five earned runs overall off 11 hits over six innings, still earned the victory in his last start. We don’t think there’s any reason to panic if you’re a Sale fan, it was just the sixth time in his entire career that he’d given up three home runs in a single game. Sale will look to return to his normal dominant self and improve upon his 5-1, 3.89 ERA record at home and 7-1, 2.93 ERA “night” game record. Pelfrey is severely overmatched here, Sale is well worth this price on his own field, we’re laying the chalk and backing the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-15-16 | Blue Jays -153 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. After dropping the opener of a short two game series with the Phillies 7-0 in Toronto, the Jays responded with a resounding 11-3 victory yesterday (we had Toronto on the RUN-LINE in that one). Marco Estrada (4-2, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he would give up three earned runs off four hits and four walks while striking out eight over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Orioles on Friday. Estrada had no-hit the Red Sox over seven-pluss innings his last outing and shut down the Yanks over eight in the start prior. And despite the mediocre effort, it was still Estrada’s fifth straight quality start (and note that he’s 2-1 with a very respectable 3.38 ERA on the road this year). The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (4-4, 4.34) who was shelled for seven earned runs and three walks with nine hits over six innings in a 9-6 loss to the Nats on Friday. It was a second straight start in which the right-hander has issued three free passes and note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA in all “night” games this season. We’re backing the “better” pitcher and the “better” team and laying what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-15-16 | Cubs v. Nationals -132 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals. This is the rubber match of a three game set, the Nats took Game 1 on Monday and the Cubs would hold on for the victory last night. A couple of the league’s best go head-to-head, but we think the home side has the small advantage. Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.36 ERA) is 9-0 with a 3.16 ERA lifetime vs. the Nationals. Washington has primarily been a right-handed hitting team, which has benefited Hammel in the past, but that’s now changed with the addition of left-batting slugger Daniel Murphy, who leads the majors in hitting in his first season with the Nationals. The home side counters with ace Stephen Strasburg (10-0, 3.03) who only faced the Cubs once back in 2013. As good as Hammel has been to this point, we’re giving Strasburg the slight nod in this match-up because of home field advantage. All things considered, the price is right, we like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and don’t be surprised to see Murphy have a big night. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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06-14-16 | Pirates v. Mets -127 | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets. The Mets line-up is banged up, but the home side has the big pitching advantage tonight. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting Jacob DeGrom to outduel his rookie counterpart. Pittsburgh has also scuffled of late (and is also injured), getting outscored 37-17 during a five-game losing streak. Jameson Taillon is expected to go here, he faced the Mets last week and gave up three runs over six innings. DeGrom (3-2, 2.80) has the big advantage though obviously, he’s 2-0 with a tiny 2.03 ERA at home. No need to overanalyze this one. Both teams are injured and both are struggling at the plate, but clearly DeGrom is the superior starter in this matchup. We feel this line should be a lot higher. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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06-13-16 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -166 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Can you imagine getting Zack Greinke at this price at home last year? Impossible. But the oddsmakers are still a little cautious when it comes to Greinke (8-3, 3.84) after his disastrous start to the 2016 campaign. This line will surely climb higher as we get closer to game time, but regardless, we think the Diamondbacks’ ace offers tremendous value in this spot and look for the home side to indeed take full advantage of this favorable pitching matchup. Greinke has not given up a run in 16 innings and has held his opposition to one run or fewer in three of his past four starts, most recently throwing a complete game shutout in a victory over the Rays on Tuesday. The visitors counter with Mike Bolsinger (1-3, 5.75) who was most recently shelled for six runs off seven hits and two walks with five K’s over five innings in a setback to the Rockies on Monday. Bolsinger gave up two home runs in the setback and had already given up three home runs in as many starts previous to that. And note that this is a spot in which Bolsinger has struggled in all year, 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA on the road and just 1-3 with a ballooned 5.75 ERA in all “night” games. Lay the price with confidence on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-12-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. In our opinion this line should be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Ubaldo Jimenez (3-6, 6.21 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run and three walks over five innings in a 9-1 victory over the Royals on Tuesday. Jimenez though would surrender nine hits. Jimenez had allowed between three and six earned runs in his previous five outings, so we’re obviously not reading too much into one decent start. And note that Jimenez has been particularly horrible in this spot all year, going 0-4 with a deplorable 7.85 ERA on the road and an even worse 0-3 with an 11.25 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (5-1, 2.91) who went eight innings, giving up two runs off three hits while walking one and striking out 12 vs. Detroit on Tuesday, taking a one hitter into the ninth inning. Expect the Jays’ ace to continue his dominance and for the home side to send Jimenez to the showers early. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-11-16 | Padres v. Rockies -220 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Colorado Rockies. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. |
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06-11-16 | Royals v. White Sox -137 | 4-1 | Loss | -137 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Chicago White Sox. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Young (2-6, 6.37 ERA) who went just 4.2 innings on Sunday vs. the Tribe, getting shelled for five runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five in the eventual setback. Young has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last four starts and has been particularly horrible in this position, going 0-5 with a deplorable 9.70 ERA in all road contests. The home side counters with Jose Quintana (5-6, 2.58) who gave up five runs off nine hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a setback to Detroit on Sunday. It was Quintana’s shortest start of the season. Quintana opened the campaign on fire but has since come back down to Earth; note though that he’s been sharp in this position all year, going 3-2 with a tiny 2.36 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Despite Quintana’s struggles of late, this is still a major pitching mismatch, indeed making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the WHITE SOX. NOTE: Young has been taken out of this one for the visitors and Danny Duffy (1-1, 3.35) will get the spot start. THIS IS STILL A VALID PLAY. Duffy is coming off a decent outing, but has gone just 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA in all “night” games this year. Quintana’s home ERA dominates that mark and we think it’ll be the difference at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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06-11-16 | Phillies v. Nationals -155 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Washington Nationals. Aaron Nola (5-4, 2.65 ERA) has been as solid as the Phillies could possibly ask for this season, he comes in off six scoreless vs. the Brewers on Sunday and hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in an outing since mid April. The home side turns to Tanner Roark (4-4, 3.21) who comes into this one off his worst outing of the 2016 campaign, going just three innings and giving up five runs in a no-decision vs. the Reds on Sunday. No need to panic if you’re a Nats fan though, those types of starts happen to even the best pitchers over the course of a season and besides, it was in fact Roark’s shortest appearnace in 60 career starts. Roark has been sharp at home (2.68 ERA) and in all “day” games (2.38). For arguments sake we’ll call these starters a “wash,” but we’re giving a big nod to the home side at the plate compared to the anemic visitors and all things considered, we feel that this is a a great price in this particular matchup. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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06-10-16 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. A couple of the league’s best go head-to-head in this exciting matchup, but in our opinion Clayton Kershaw is in a “league of his own.” Kershaw (8-1, 1.46 ERA) comes in off another victory, going six scoreless vs. Atlanta on Saturday, striking out four and walking one. His WHIP now stands at an almost unbelievable 0.65. Note that he’s been particularly dominant on the road, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.67 ERA. The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (9-1, 2.16) who gave up one run off four hits with five walks and only one K over six innings vs. the Cards on Friday. Cueto struggled with his control as only 60 of his 105 offerings would go for strikes. As good as Cueto has been, we like Kershaw to come through in this fierce rivalry, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-10-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -148 | 9-3 | Loss | -148 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Michael Wacha (2-6, 5.16 ERA) is coming off a decent outing vs. the Nats on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits over six innings, but has struggled this year overall. In fact, it was just Wacha’s first quality outing out of his last five. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (5-4, 2.85) who gave up three runs with four K’s to just one walk over 6.2 innings vs. the Angels on Sunday. Cole has been particularly effective in this spot, posting a very respectable 3.38 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We think the Pirates’ ace is well worth the price of admission tonight, play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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06-10-16 | Tigers v. Yankees -138 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. Great value in this matchup. A couple of veteran’s which are clearly heading in opposite directions collide on Friday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done. Mike Pelfrey (1-5, 5.37 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’s coming off a rare victory over the White Sox on Saturday, allowing two runs off five hits and walking three in the 7-4 victory. Pelfrey has been all over the map as far as his consistency and he was wild again in the win, walking three and hitting another batter. Note that Pelfrey is 0-3 with a 4.46 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (3-4, 2.58) who went five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Orioles on Sunday. Sabathia has been very effective in all night contests this year by posting a tiny 2.73 ERA. The Yanks’ bats woke up over the weekend vs. the Angels and we look for that trend to continue here in this favorable pitching matchup. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-09-16 | Mets v. Brewers -109 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Milwaukee Brewers. We think the value is simply too good to turn down here as we look for veteran Bartolo Colon to continue his downward spiral and expect Jimmy Nelson to take full advantage. Colon (4-3, 3.27 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Marlins on Saturday. Colon’s numbers are still decent, but the reason behind his success in recent years has been his K/BB ratio. Last year he’d post a career best 5.67 K/BB, but this season that’s dropped to 3.54. And over his last four starts he has just a 1.11 K/BB ratio. Colon is headed for disaster in our opinion, the fewer K’s and more walks is going to finally catch up to him tonight. Nelson (5-4, 3.43) comes in of his worst outing of the year, getting blasted for six runs off seven hits, walking three and striking out just one over four innings in a 6-3 loss to the Phillies on Friday. The sub-par outing would break a string of four consecutive quality starts. There’s no reason not to think that Nelson won’t bounce back though, he’s thrown a quality start in eight of his 11 outings this season. He also has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 4-2 with a highly respectable 2.54 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. New York managed to gut out the victory late last night, but overall the team has been struggling with consistency at the plate. All things considered, this is indeed a great price, play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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06-08-16 | Angels v. Yankees -168 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Yankees. New York has started to turn things around at the plate of late and with what we feel to be the vastly superior starter backing it today, we believe the price of admission is well worth it in this one. Keep your eyes on Yanks’ slugger Carlos Beltran, who has homered in the first two games of this series, both victories for New York. Beltran is hitting .328 with seven home runs and 19 RBI in his last 19 games and he has ten dingers off right-handers already this year. The home side hands the ball to Nathan Eovaldi, who is 6-0 with a highly respectable 3.35 ERA over his last eight starts. Right-hander Jered Weaver has lost four of his last six decisions and owns a poor 5.83 ERA in 15 regular-season starts vs. New York. Weaver has been even worse in Yankee Stadium, going 1-3 in five appearances behind a deplorable 8.71 ERA. The Angels have struggled at the plate in the Big Apple as well, having been held to six hits or less in ten of their last 22 meetings there. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-07-16 | Marlins -116 v. Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -116 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. Miami sends Adam Conley (3-3, 3.72 ERA) to the hill, he comes in off a gem vs. the Pirates on Wednesday, scattering two hits with three walks and nine K’s over six scoreless in the unfortunate no-decision. Conley struggled in May after a great April and will now look to build off his last start and to improve upon his already impressive 2-0, 2.93 ERA road record. The home side sends Pat Dean (1-2, 4.15) to the mound, he most recently was shelled for four runs off nine hits in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. The southpaw has made five appearances this year and has allowed a home run in four of them. Note that Dean owns a pedestrian 4.15 ERA at home thus far. Conley has all the tools in place to continue his progression, while we have no faith whatsoever in Dean. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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06-07-16 | Nationals -136 v. White Sox | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Joe Ross (5-4, 2.37 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’s coming off a gem vs. the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up just one run off three hits with one walk and five K’s. Ross has now posted back-to-back quality starts and will be looking to improve upon his impressive 3-2, 1.54 ERA road record. The home side counters with Mat Latos (6-1, 4.02) who is likely headed to the bullpen with the acquistion of James Shields. After an unsustainable start to the season, Latos came back down to Earth in May, seeing his stellar 1.84 ERA climb to 4.02 over the course of five starts. Opposing batters have hit .335 against him over his last 37.2 innings of work and clearly things aren’t going to get any easier in facing the hard-hitting Nationals. We’re giving Ross the big nod on the bump in this matchup. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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06-07-16 | Astros v. Rangers -110 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 5.50 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a 3-0 loss to Arizona on Thursday. It was Keuchel’s sixth loss in his last seven decisions. Note that Keuchel has been particularly horrible on the road this year, going just 2-4 with a ballooned 5.93 ERA (also note that Keuchel has lost both decisions vs. the Rangers this year, giving up 12 runs in nine innings of work). The home side counters with the red hot Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.39) who has already won two starts over Houston this year and who most recently gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the Indians on Wednesday. Hamels now owns a highly respectable 1.32 WHIP and 72 K’s over 69 innings of work and is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA in all night games thus far. These teams are both hitting the cover off the ball right now, so we’ll call that area a “wash,” but clearly Hamels has been the much more consistent starter this year. It’s hard to believe that Keuchel is still getting as much respect from the oddsmakers as he does. The value is simply too good to turn down on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-06-16 | Angels v. Yankees -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Yankees. The Angels are coming off a come from behind 5-4 win over the Pirates yesterday and their starter Matt Shoemaker has looked better of late. LA though has had a hell of time in New York in recent years and we think it will once again have its hands full vs the red hot Masahiro Tanaka. Note that the Angels have gone just 8-23 lifetime at the new Yankee Stadium, including having dropped their last five in a row and 14 of their last 18 there. Shoemaker (3-6, 5.50 ERA) is coming off a 3-0 loss to the Tigers, but has struggled mightily in this spot all season, going just 2-2 with a 5.49 ERA on the road. Tanaka (3-1, 2.78) comes in off his first loss of the year despite allowing just two runs over six innings vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Wednesday. Tanaka has a minute 0.90 ERA over his last three starts and will hope to see his team continue its recent surge at the plate, before falling 3-1 in Baltimore on Sunday, the Yanks had totaled 18 runs off 34 hits while winning two of three. This is a clear pitching mismatch and we’re banking on Tanaka and the home side to make the most of it. Lay the price on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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06-05-16 | Giants v. Cardinals -130 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. This is the final game of a long ten-game road trip for the Giants and we think they’re going to be caught looking ahead to a day off and then the comforts of friendly confines. The Cards on the other hand broke a three-game home losing streak with yesterday’s victory and will clearly be looking to keep the momentum rolling. Jake Peavy (2-5, 6.34 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’s coming off a decent start in which he gave up one run over six innings in a win over the light-hitting Padres on Wednesday. Peavy though has been horrible on the road this year, going 1-3 with a ballooned 7.20 ERA. The home side hands the ball to Carlos Martinez (5-5, 3.69), who will look to build off his best outing of the campaign, going eight innings vs. Milwaukee on Monday, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out eight in the victory. We love Martinez in this matchup and as we outlined above, this is a great “situational” play on ST. LOUIS as well. AAA Sports |
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06-05-16 | Angels v. Pirates -170 | 5-4 | Loss | -170 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We think the Pirates’ ace will outduel his counterpart today easily, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (3-3, 4.96 ERA) who was shelled for six runs over 6.2 innings, allowing five hits and two walks in a fortunate no decision vs. the Tigers on Tuesday. Three of the hits were home runs. It was the fourth time in his last five outings that he’s allowed four-plus runs and his 14 dingers are the second-worst in MLB. After a solid start, Santiago has clearly regressed and his putrid 6.75 ERA in May is testament to that fact. Gerrit Cole (5-4, 2.72) gets the call for the home side, he most recently allowed one unearned run off seven hits over five innings in a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks on Thursday. This is a matchup of David vs. Goliath, but in this version the giant comes out on top. Lay the price with confidence on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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06-05-16 | Brewers v. Phillies -150 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. After dropping yesterday’s game, we think this is a great spot to jump on the home side. The visitors send the volatile Wily Peralta (3-6, 6.51 ERA) to the hill. Peralta comes in off a decent outing, going five innings and allowing two runs off seven hits to beat the anemic Braves on Thursday. Peralta though has struggled mightily with his game-to-game consistency and note that he’s a poor 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.67 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (4-4, 2.88) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk with six K’s over six innings in an unfortunate setback to the Nationals on Tuesday. Nola has gotten better as the season has progressed, since allowing seven runs in five innings back on April 16th, Nola now has eight straight quality starts and has struck out at least five batters in every outing so far this year. His 76:13 K:BB ratio over 72 innings is amongst the best in the majors. In our opinion, Nola should in fact be a much larger fav, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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06-04-16 | Yankees v. Orioles -121 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -121 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are red hot, surging at the plate. The Yankees are not, continuing to scuffle. Suffice it to say, we feel we’re getting unbelievable value on Tyler Wilson and the home side in this matchup. Baltimore has been on fire at the plate of late and is poised to keep that streak going vs. the struggling Ivan Nova. Mark Trumbo has led the charge for the Orioles (who will be seeking a fourth straight win), the slugger is tied for the major league with 17 home runs and is batting .359 with four dingers, 11 RBI’s, four doubles and nine runs in his last ten games overall. Note that Trumbo is 9 for 16 with two home runs vs. Nova (3-3, 3.98 ERA). The Yanks are on the other end of the spectrum right now, batting just .194 with runners in scoring position during a 3-7 slide. Nova comes in off back-to-back poor outings, giving up eight runs off 15 hits over his last 12 2/3’s innings of work (and note that Nova has struggled against the Orioles throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 7.59 ERA over his last four in the series). Wilson (2-4, 3.83) has gone at least six innings in five straight starts and has given up more than three earned runs just once in seven outings. What’s up with this line? We don’t expect Baltimore to have a letdown here or to look past the Yanks, instead we’re expecting the home side to take full advantage. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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06-03-16 | A's v. Astros -165 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the Houston Astros. Jesse Hahn (2-2, 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, most recently he’d give up three earned runs and four walks off five hits over six innings in a 12-3 win over the Tigers on Saturday. Hahn though was wild with his command, throwing only 50 of his 90 pitches in the strike zone. Hahn was lucky to limit the damage vs. Detroit, but note that he’s a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Doug Fister (4-3, 3.86) who went six strong vs. the Angels on Sunday, giving up three runs off five hits while also striking out six in a no-decision. Fister has now posted quality starts in seven of his past eight games and we think he’ll keep the momentum rolling tonight and outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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06-03-16 | Mets -160 v. Marlins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the New York Mets. The visitors hand the ball to All-Star candidate Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 1.84 ERA) who was ejected in the third inning of a game vs. the Dodgers last Saturday after throwing behind second basman Chase Utley. Syndergaard has been the very model of consistency this year though and is 3-1 with a tiny 1.67 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Tom Koehler (3-5, 4.50) who comes in off a win, giving up two earned runs with two K’s over seven innings over the Braves on Sunday. It’s one thing to beat the worst offense in the league and quite another to domiante one of the best (even with slugger David Wright out of the lineup). Note that Koehler owns a poor 20:16 BB:K ratio over his last four starts, a statistic which we believe will come back to bite him tonight (also note that Koehler owns a pedestrian 4.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd). We’re backing Syndergaard, who we think will come in with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the price with the METS. AAA Sports |
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06-03-16 | Angels v. Pirates -172 | 9-2 | Loss | -172 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We like the hard-hitting Pirates to get back to their winning ways after yesterday’s 4-3 loss in Miami and to take advantage of this favorable matchup in front of the home town crowd. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jered Weaver (4-4, 5.40 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Saturday. Weaver has now given up eight home runs in his last 30 innings and his HR/9 is a career-high 1.9. Also note that Weaver has six walks vs. just 11 K’s over his last three outings. Unfortunately for Weaver, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s already just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA away from friendly confines this season. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano (4-4, 4.63) who looks to bounce back after a couple of poor efforts, most recently giving up five runs off six hits with six K’s over six innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. A date at home is definitely what the doctor ordered for Liriano to get back on track though, he’s already 3-1 with a tiny 1.42 ERA there this season. We’re expecting a lop-sided result, making this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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06-02-16 | Red Sox -126 v. Orioles | 7-12 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Boston Red Sox. Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.68 ERA) has gotten beaten up by Baltimore, in three starts vs. it last season he’d go 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA, to drop him to 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 12 career outings. Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.36) has been even worse vs. the Red Sox, most recently he’d give up four runs off six hits and four walks over five innings in a 4-2 loss in Boston April 13th to fall to 2-5 with a ballooned 7.25 ERA in 12 career matchups. The difference between these two pitchers though is that Porcello is enjoying a solid start, while Jimenez will likely be out of the starting rotation after this outing. Most recently Jimenez was shelled for six runs off five hits with three walks over just 1 2/3’s innings in an 11-4 loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Porcello has been competitive in almost every appearance this season, he was in line for the win after giving up four runs over seven innings in his team’s eventual 10-9 loss in Toronto on Saturday, his bullpen blowing the late lead. Even though the Red Sox are on an epic offensive run right now, for arguments sake we’ll call these line-ups a “wash.” But we’re giving Porcello the big nod in this matchup and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors and does indeed make this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-01-16 | Reds v. Rockies -174 | 7-2 | Loss | -174 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Tyler Chatwood (6-3, 2.69 ERA) was lights out with his performance in May and we’re expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to continue his progression. Most recently he pitched seven strong vs. San Francisco on Friday, giving up one unearned run off four hits with three walks. It was the fifth time in his last six outings in which he’s given up three runs or less. The visitors counter with the volatile John Lamb (0-3, 6.85) who was rocked for six earned runs off seven hits and three walks over three innings in 9-4 setback to the Brewers on Friday. It was the 25-year olds third straight loss as he was touched up for two more home runs for a second consecutive outing. Lamb’s 6.85 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and 14:12 K:BB ratio are amongst the worst in the league. Not surprisingly, he’s given up 17 runs of his last 13.2 innings of work. Chatwood and the home side are absolutely worth the price of admission in this matchup, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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06-01-16 | Nationals -200 v. Phillies | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Washignton Nationals. The visitors hand the ball to ace Max Scherzer (5-4, 4.05 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget after giving up five runs off three hits over seven innings in a 6-2 loss to the Cards on Friday night. To be fair though, Scherzer looked very good in that game, as he’d go unscathed for six of those seven innings, before allowing a grand slam to Steve Piscotty. Scherzer owns a 3.77 ERA on the road and 3.70 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with the volatile Adam Morgan (1-3, 6.67) who remains in the Phillies’ starting rotation out of necessity, he was most recently blasted for six runs off eight hits over four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Morgan has now given up 15 runs and four dingers over his last three starts. Morgan is on his way back to Triple A shortly, making Scherzer and the NATIONALS worth the price of admission in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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06-01-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -113 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Both of these starters have been superb of late (we actually have a free play on the UNDER in this one). Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89 ERA) would throw seven shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Rays on Friday, scattering two hits and walking none in the dominant performance. Tanaka has now thrown back-to-back gems and has been particularly impressive on the road this year, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.34 ERA. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29) who gave up three earned runs off five hits, walking two and striking out six over six innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Friday. Sanchez has become the leader of the Jays’ rotation and note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.94 ERA in all night games this year. We’re calling the starters a “wash,” but giving a big nod to the Toronto line-up, which will look to sweep the Yanks at home in a series for the first time a decade. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value,” play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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05-31-16 | Pirates v. Marlins -120 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Miami Marlins. It’s a battle of “aces” on Tuesday night as Gerrit Cole and the high-powered Pirates are in Miami to take on red hot Jose Fernandez and the Marlins. Cole (5-3, 2.53 ERA) gave up one unearned run off seven hits and three walks in five innings on Thurday vs. Arizona. Cole had failed to record a strikeout in his previous start, so it was a step in the right direction once again. Fernandez (7-2, 2.82) would pitch seven innings and give up just a single run off six hits while walking one and striking out 12 in a victory over Tampa Bay on Thursday. Fernandez has been unstoppable in May, he’s won all five of his starts and gave up more than one run in just one of those outings. His 90:15 K:BB and 2.82 ERA are amongst the best in the league. We think Fernandez has the upper hand at home and that Cole’s recent struggles with strikeouts comes back to bite him. Great value on Fernandez and the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -149 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. We feel that Marco Estrada is the better pitcher here and we look for the hard-hitting home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (3-2, 3.65 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to Toronto on Wednesday. Nova has been decent, not great, since being placed into the rotation, but he’s struggled on the road, going 1-1 with a poor 6.39 ERA. The home side counters with Estrada (2-2, 2.76) who went seven innings vs. New York opposite Nova, giving up three runs off four hits in the no-decision. Estrada has been as consistent as the Jays could possibly ask for as he’s gone at least six frames in each of his five starts this month (note that he also owns a tiny 1.69 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date). All things considered, we’re getting a great price on the home side in this matchup, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-30-16 | Rangers v. Indians -143 | 9-2 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MEMORIAL DAY SPECIAL on the Cleveland Indians. Derek Holland (3-4, 5.21 ERA) has shown flashes of brilliance this year, but for the most part he’s been a disappointment. Holland has been particularly horrible on the road as well, posting one of the league’s worst ERA’s away from friendly confines (6.41). Josh Tomlin on the other hand has been one of the most consistent starters over the last year. Tomlin (7-0, 3.35 ERA) most recently allowed two runs off five hits with one walk and six strikeouts over eight innings to beat the White Sox on Tuesday. Dating to last season, Tomlin has posted a 3.16 ERA and 93 strikeouts to just 14 walks. Note that Tomlin has been particularly effective at home, going 3-0 with a respectable 3.86 ERA. The price is right on this one, unload with confidence on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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05-29-16 | Marlins v. Braves -125 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins send the volatile Tom Koehler (2-5, 4.79 ERA) to the mound, he most recently gave up three runs off six hits with five walks while stirking out six in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Koehler was all over the map with his control, needing 102 pitches to get through five innings. Koehler has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year, but for the most part he’s been a disappointment. And note that this is a spot in which he’s already struggled in, going 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (1-4, 2.57) who has obviously pitched much better than what his record indicates, most recently he’s coming off an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Brewers on Tuesday, giving up one run off three scattered hits while striking out 12 over seven innings of work. In five starts in May, Teheran has posted a minuscule 0.80 ERA. We’re banking on the BRAVES finally giving their ace some support in this favorable matchup. AAA Sports |
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05-29-16 | Twins v. Mariners -175 | 5-4 | Loss | -175 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will be hungry to atone for back-to-back losses to the lowly Twins. Minnesota has to be feeling pretty contented after already notching the series win. All signs point to a lop-sided victory today. The visitors send Ricky Nolasco (1-3, 5.54 ERA) to the hill, he was most recently blasted for six runs off eight hits with two walks over just 2.2 innings of work in a loss to Kansas City on Monday. Nolasco has now given up at least four runs in six straight starts and in seven of nine this year. So far Nolasco has been crushed for 60 hits and seven home runs over just 52 innings of work this season and note that he’s been particularly horrible in this spot already, going 0-2 with an 8.14 ERA in all night games thus far. The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (2-4, 2.70) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up five runs (just one earned) off four hits and a walk while striking out six over 7.1 innings in a loss to the A’s on Monday. Following a hot start to the campaign, Walker is now 0-4 in his last five appearances. Note though that it’s not been his fault, as he’s given up two or less earned runs seven times in nine tries this season. A date at home is just what the doctor ordrered to get back into the win column today as he’s posted a tiny 2.68 ERA there to date. All signs do indeed point to SEATTLE as the savvy move in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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05-29-16 | Tigers v. A's -159 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Oakland Athletics. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, the Tigers’ Mike Pelfrey is completely outclassed today. Pelfrey (0-4, 5.55 ERA) gave up four runs off a whopping 11 hits while striking out three over six innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the light-hitting Phillies on Monday. Pelfrey’s WHIP now stands at an unsightly 1.81, which is second-worst among the 104 qualifying starting pitchers. Note that Pelfrey has been especially poor in this spot all year, going 0-2 with a 4.87 ERA on the road and an even worse 0-1 with a brutal 8.53 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with arguably the hottest pitcher in the league right now in Rich Hill (7-3, 2.18) who scattered eight hits with six strikeouts to just one walk over eight scoreless innings in a victory over the Mariners on Monday. Over a four-game win streak, the veteran has given up just five runs over 25.2 innings of work. Note that Hill is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in all day games this season. We’re banking on Hill outdueling his counterpart, making this a mid-sized price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports |
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05-28-16 | Astros v. Angels +105 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. Houston Astros’ starter Dallas Keuchel is a train-wreck this year and we believe he’ll once again get rocked early in this one. Keuchel most recently was blasted for seven runs off nine hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Rangers on Sunday. Keuchel has now been shelled for at least five runs in five of his last seven outings. And note that Keuchel has been particularly horrible in this position all year, going 1-4 with a 6.57 ERA on the road thus far. Veteran Jered Weaver (4-3, 5.33) gets the call for the home side, he’d most recently give up two runs to go along with a season-high six strikeouts to just one walk over seven innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Orioles on Sunday. Weaver continues to show flashes of brilliance and he’s now thrown a quality start in three of his last four outings. We have a hard time seeing Keuchel just “flipping a switch” and will instead back the more consistent hurler in this matchup and all things considered, we definitely feel we’re getting great value in this one. Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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05-28-16 | Dodgers v. Mets -145 | 9-1 | Loss | -145 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Mets. We feel that Noah Syndergaard should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup. The visitors turn to Kenta Maeda (3-3, 3.29 ERA) who was rocked for four runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Padres on Sunday. Maeda has been steadily declining after a decent start to his 2016 campaign as he’s failed to make it out of the fifth frame in each of his last three outings and owns a disgusting 7.71 ERA in his last 14 innings of work (note that he’s just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.08 ERA on the road thus far). The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (5-2, 1.94) who gave up one unearned run off six hits and no walks while striking out 11 over seven innings in a dominant victory over the Brewers on Sunday. Syndergaard became the second Metropolitan and first since Dwight Gooden to throw back-to-back outings of 10 K’s and zero walks. Not surprisingly, Syndergaard has been dominant at home this year, going 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA to date. When taking all of the above into account, we have no issues at all in laying what we feel to be this extremely fair mid-sized price. AAA Sports |
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05-28-16 | Orioles v. Indians -150 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. This is a major mismatch on the mound and we’re expecting the home side to take full advantage. The visitors hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez (2-5, 6.04 ERA) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits and three walks over 5.2 innings on Sunday vs. the Angels. It was the second straight start that Jimenez had given up six runs, now 12 earned runs in his last ten innings of work. In nine outings so far this year, Jimenez has just two quality starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going 0-3 with a deplorable 7.02 ERA on the road and an even worse 0-2 with an atrocious 10.45 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Danny Salazar (4-3, 2.32) who is coming off his worst outing of the season, giving up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a loss to the red hot Red Sox on Sunday. Note though that it was the first time in nine starts that he’d given up more than three runs in an outing. Salazar will now look to get back on track in front of the home town crowd where he’s already a blistering 2-1 with a tiny 1.23 ERA (also owns a highly respectable 2.60 ERA in all day games thus far). In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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05-27-16 | Padres +152 v. Diamondbacks | 10-3 | Win | 152 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP DOG on the San Diego Padres. Robbie Ray is widly inconsistent and we think he’s a great “go against” this evening. The visitors turn to Christian Friedrich (0-1, 2.89 ERA) who has been solid in his two outings, most recently he gave up two runs off six hits while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday. Friedrich performed well in his road start, posting a tiny 1.50 ERA. Ray (2-3, 4.18) most recently gave up two runs off three hits with four walks over five innings in a 6-2 loss to the Cardinals Saturday. Ray has only lasted until the sixth inning in two of his nine starts and has been particularly horrible in this spot, posting an atrocious 6.30 ERA at home thus far. We look for Friedrich to outduel the volatile Ray, it’s indeed a great match-up to pull the trigger on the underdog; play on SAN DIEGO. AAA Sports |
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05-26-16 | Brewers v. Braves -129 | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* UNDER-THE-RADAR PLAY on the Atlanta Braves. This is a big pitching mismatch. Milwaukee may have the advantage at the plate, but Atlanta has a huge advantage on the mound. Matt Wisler (2-3, 2.93 ERA) gets the call for the home side, he’s gotten better as the season has progressed, going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts in May. Most recently he allowed one run and struck out a season-high seven (for a second consecutive outing) over 6 2/3’s innings of work in a 7-1 victory at Philadelphia on Friday. The Braves are just 2-19 in Atlanta after yesterday’s 3-2, 13-inning defeat, so clearly the team will be hungry to start notching some victories in front of the home town crowd. Milwaukee hasn’t been tearing the cover off the ball lately anyways, managing just six runs total over its last three games, with four of its last five outings decided by a single run. The visitors counter with confirmed “gas can” Wily Peralta (2-5, 6.99) who gave up three runs over 5 2/3’s innings in a 3-2 setback to the Mets on Friday. Peralta is now 0-5 with a ballooned 5.35 ERA over his last eight on the road. If ever the Braves were going to wake up at the plate, this is the matchup in which to do it and with Wisler as clearly the superior starter in this spot, all signs do indeed point to the home side as the savvy move in this contest. Play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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05-24-16 | Padres v. Giants -200 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the San Francisco Giants. We’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (2-3, 4.93 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start. The best word to describe Cashner to this point would be: “inconsistent.” Note that he’s a horrible 0-1 with a ballooned 7.04 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with legitimate “come back player of the year” Jeff Samardzija (6-2, 2.66) who struck out eight over eight innings, giving up just one run off three hits without a walk in a 3-1 victory over the Friars on Thursday. Samardzija has now pitched eight innings in four of his nine starts this season and is 5-1 with a tiny 1.77 ERA in all “night” games this season. Play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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05-24-16 | A's v. Mariners -155 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Nathan Karns and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors turn to Kendall Graveman (1-6, 5.48 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and three walks over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. Note though that Graveman has been horrible on the road this season, going 1-3 with a ballooned 7.91 ERA. The home side counters with Nathan Karns (4-1, 3.33) who gave up one run off four hits with zero walks and five K’s over five frames in a win over the hard-hitting Orioles on Thursday (note that Karns is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA in all night games this year). We’re laying the price and backing the red hot hurler, play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports |
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05-24-16 | Brewers v. Braves -121 | 2-1 | Loss | -121 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 3.07 ERA) who has given up two runs over his last 15 1/3’s innings of work, unfortuantely going 0-1 after receiving just two total runs of support. Braves’ pitcher Julio Teheran (1-4, 2.73) can empathize, he’s received 2.73 runs per game this year, which ranks fifth-lowest in the league. Teheran is 1-2 over his last six starts, despite posting a minuscule 1.15 ERA, but he comes in off his first win of the season, going 7 2/3’s scoreless in a 3-1 win over the Pirates on Wednesday. Nelson owns a poor 4.41 ERA on the road. The value here is on Teheran and the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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05-24-16 | Rockies v. Red Sox -210 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Boston Red Sox. In a contest which we believe will be completely lop-sided in nature, we feel that David Price and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The Rockies turn to Jorge De La Rosa (1-3, 10.18 ERA), who returns from the DL to make this start. De La Rosa is being thrown to the wolves today obviously, note that’s 0-1 with a deplorable 12.15 ERA on the road this year. Price (6-1, 5.53) most recently allowed two runs off five hits while striking out five and walking just one over seven innings in a victory over the Royals on Wednesday. Previous to that he struck out 12 in a victory over the Astros. We’re banking on the all-star to continue to improve and for his larger ERA to continue to shrink. Lay the price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-23-16 | Royals -130 v. Twins | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City has started to turn things around after a slow start to the season as it just took two of three from the White Sox over the weekend and has won five of its last seven. A date vs. the Twins is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, the Royals have won six straight over the Twins overall and six straight in Minnesota. The floundering Twins fell 3-1 to Toronto yesterday, their ninth loss in their last ten games. The Royals turn to Ian Kennedy (4-3, 3.24 ERA) who beat Minnesota 7-0 in his debut for the Royals back in early April. Most recently Kennedy allowed two runs while striking out a season-high nine over 5 2/3’s innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting Red Sox on Wednesday. The home side counters with the erratic Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 4.74) who is 0-2 with a deplorable 6.21 ERA over his last five starts. Most recently Nolasco gave up four runs off nine hits over five innings in a 6-3 loss at Detroit on Wednesday. Nolasco’s team is batting just .181 with 16 runs over its last six games. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the Royals’ Lorenzo Cain, who has hit .371 over his last ten games vs. the twins and .407 in his last seven in Minnesota. We can’t see the Royals coming in complacent today, the team has finally started to show some life and it’s coming off a loss yesterday. And there’s no question that this is a pitching mismatch. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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05-22-16 | Rays v. Tigers -110 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Tigers. A couple of competent starters go head to head this afternoon, but we think the value on the home side is just too good to turn down in this one. The vistors send Chris Archer (3-4, 4.38 ERA) to the hill. Archer was rocked hard in four straight losses to begin the season, but has since regained his form to go 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts. Note though that Archer owns a deplorable 6.15 ERA on the road this year and a poor 4.70 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Jordan Zimmermann (6-2, 2.45 ERA) who got out to an unreal start to the season, but who has since come back down to earth of late, posting a 5.32 ERA over his last three starts. Zimmermann though has been “lights out” in day games thus far, posting an almost non-existent 0.45 ERA in such situations. Zimmermann and the rest of the rotation have been getting a ton of support of late also, as the Tigers are hitting .327 with 11 homers and have scored 33 runs in winning five of their last six. A big injury note for the visitors, Gold Glove center fielder Kevin Keirmaier fractured his left hand in yesterday’s setback and will be unavailable today. Great price on DETROIT today. AAA Sports |
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05-21-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Miami Marlins. These two squared off against each other just last week and Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez came out on top with a fantastic performance. Suffce it to say, we’re expecting a similar type effort this evening and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Fernandez (5-2, 3.21 ERA) is 5-0 with a 1.09 ERA in eight starts against Washington and beat it for the second time this year on Sunday after giving up just one run off four hits, while striking out 11 over seven innings of work in in the 5-1 victory. Fernandez comes into this one on fire, 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA over his last four outings with 37 K’s in 25 innings. The Fish have to be feeling pretty confident today as Fernandez is 20-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 30 starts at Marlins Park. The visitors counter with Joe Ross (3-3, 2.63) who is coming off his third straight loss after getting blasted for five runs over 5 2/3’s innings. Ross was sharp to open the year by going 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA, but has since regressed with a 4.53 ERA over his last three. We’re giving Fernandez the big nod in this matchup, play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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