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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-15-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -162 | 4-1 | Loss | -162 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Chris Sale and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Luis Severino: He’s 5-4 with a 3.54 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee Saturday. Severino has been serviceable this year, but he’s 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA on the road. Chris Sale: He’s 11-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale was briliant in two innings in the All Star Game and is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: Boston bettors were treated to a bottom of the night come from behind victory last night, but we don’t think we’ll have to sweat this one out. All things considered, we do indeed feel this is a great price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-14-17 | Indians -150 v. A's | 0-5 | Loss | -150 | 31 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Carlos Carrasco and the hard hitting Indians could/should easly be much larger ones: Carrasco: He’s 10-3 with a 3.44 ERA. Carrasco most recently allowed two runs off nine hits and a walk over seven innings while also strikin gout 11 in a victory over Detroit on Friday. He’s now struck out at least seven batters in five straight outings and posted quality starts in four of those five. Note that Carrasco has been especially dominant on the road this year, going 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA. Sonny Gray: He’s 4-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Gray’s pedestrian overall stat line isn’t doing anything to stop trade rumors. Gray has been better at home than on the road but is still only 1-4 with a 5.49 ERA in all “night” contests. The bottom line: Note that Cleveland is 14-8 (+3.1 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland is just 29-49 (-10.3 units) against right handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-14-17 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -123 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -123 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Tigers. Both of these veteran starting pitchers put together promising 2016 campaigns, but so far each has fallen short of expectations this year. That said, for a number of different reasons we believe that Justin Verlander and the Tigers could/should easily be much bigger favs in this one. Aaron Sanchez: He’s 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA. Sanchez most recently gave up eight runs off seven hits and four walks over just 1.2 innings in a loss to Houston on Friday. It was his first star back since May 19th and he looked horrible. Verlander: He’s 5-6 with a 4.73 ERA. Verlander most recently gave up one run off six hits and four walks while striking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Cleveland on Saturday. Verlander closed the first half strong though, posting three quality starts in his last five trips to the hill. The bottom line: Verlander has consistently been at his best at home this year, going 3-1 with a respectable 3.61 ERA. Until Sanchez can string together a couple of decent efforts, we remain unconvinced. All in all, this is great value, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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07-09-17 | Royals +264 v. Dodgers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Royals. You could call Clayton Kershaw the best pitcher on the planet and not many would argue with you. Danny Duffy had a career year in 2016 and while he hasn’t been able to live up to those incredibly high expectations this year, we still think that he has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one: Duffy: He’s 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Duffy retuned from the DL on Tuesday against the Mariners and would earn a victory after allowing two runs over six innings while also striking out four. So far Duffy is a respectable 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA on the road. Kershaw: He’s 13-2 with a 2.19 ERA. Kershaw continues to set the standard for most of the league, also woning an impressive 146:22 K:BB over 123.1 innings of work. The bottom line: We like Duffy to match Kershaw inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we believe the value swings to the underdog. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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07-09-17 | Brewers +132 v. Yankees | 5-3 | Win | 132 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. Both starters come into the break on solid runs, but we look for the red hot Jimmy Nelson to get the better of Masahiro Tanaka this afternoon: Nelson: He’s 7-4 with a 3.20 ERA. Nelson most recently allowed one unearned run off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a 6-2 victory over the Orioles on Tuesday. Nelson has won five of his last sixt trips to the hill and is a powerful 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA in all day games so far this season. Tanaka: He’s 7-7 with a 5.25 ERA. Tanaka started the year horribly, but has since recovered, most recently giving up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Monday. While he’s 4-3 at home this year, he still owns a pedestrian 4.25 ERA in New York to this point. The bottom line: Note that Milwaukee is 18-16 (+3.6 units) this season in all “day” games, while New York is 13-14 (-3.7 units) in all day contests. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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07-08-17 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -139 | 7-0 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that home field advantage can’t be overlooked in this spot: Luis Castillo: He’s 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA. Castillo most recently gave up four runs off nine hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Rockies on Monday. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA on the road thus far. Taijun Walker: He’s 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA. Walker gave up two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Sunday. He enters this one having gone 2-1 with a solid 3.92 ERA at home. The bottom line: Note that Cincinnati is just 20-27 (-2.1 units) this year following a loss, while Arizona is 34-18 (+14.8 units) following a victory. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-08-17 | A's v. Mariners -144 | 4-3 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Seattle Mariners. We think the Mariners should be much larger favs in this very favorable pitching matchup: Chris Smith: He’s 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. The 34-year old has appeared as a reliever several times, but this will be his first career start, filling in for the injured Jharel Cotton. Andrew Moore: He’s 1-1 witha 3.60 ERA. Moore comes in off a gem, giving up three runs off five hits and four strikeouts over eight innings in a loss to KC on Monday. The bottom line: A tough spot start for Chris Smith. We think Moore and the MARINERS take full advantage. AAA Sports |
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07-07-17 | Tigers v. Indians -200 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Carlos Carrasco and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Jordan Zimmermann: He’s 5-6 with a 5.58 ERA. Zimmermann most recently gave up four runs off five hits and a walk over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Saturday. Zimmermann has looked decent previous, but has now allowed ten runs over his last 9.2 innings. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA on the road. Carrasco: He’s 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA. Carrasco continues to get better as the season has progressed, most recently allowing one run off four this and a walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Tigers on Saturday. Carrasco has now given up two runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts this year and owns a great 1.05 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. Note that he’s 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: We expect Carrasco to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-07-17 | Brewers v. Yankees -200 | 9-4 | Loss | -200 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Jordan Montgomery and the hard-hitting home side could be much larger ones: Junior Guerra: He’s 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA. Guerra most recently gave up four runs off eight hits and three walks over four frames in a 10-3 loss to Miami on Sunday. Previous to that the third-year pro had been shelled for eight runs over four innings to Cincinnati. Note that Guerra is just 1-2 with a horrible 6.19 ERA on the road this year. Montgomery: He’s 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA. Montgomery most recently allowed three runs off five hits and a walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings in no-decision against the Astros on Saturday. The Yanks’ rookie has gotten better as the season has progressed and has now allowed 14 earned runs to go along with 46 K’s over 47.2 innings spanning his last eight starts. Note that Montgomery is a very respectable 3-1 with a 3.73 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: For the most part, MLB handicapping is all about the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess starting pitching, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction, lay the price with confidence, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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07-06-17 | Red Sox -158 v. Rays | 1-4 | Loss | -158 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Chris Sale and the hard-hitting Red Sox could/should easily be much larger ones: Sale: He’s 11-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Sale most recently went seven scoreless against the Blue Jays on Saturday, scattering four hits and one walk to go along with 11 K’s. Sales 12.43 K/9 is the best in the league. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA on the road thus far. Jacob Faria: He’s 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA. Faria gave up three runs off four hits while striking out six over 6.2 innings against Baltimore on Friday. Faria has been great in his limited time, but clearly faces his stiffest test to date. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 40-27 (+5.1 units) against right-handed starters, while Tampa Bay is just 10-16 (-6.4 units) against southpaws. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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07-06-17 | Brewers v. Cubs -158 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -158 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Mike Montgomery and the Cubs could/should easily be much largers ones: Zach Davies: He’s 9-4 with a 5.03 ERA. No one in the league has likely been as “lucky” with run support than Davies this year, who most recently earned a win over Miami on Saturday despite allowing four runs off five hits and two walks over six innings. He only has four quality starts in 17 trips to the hill and to go along with his poor 5.03 ERA, he also sports a poor 1.49 WHIP and has just 60 K’s across 91.1 innings of work. Montgomery: He’s 1-5 with a 2.80 ERA. Montgomery allowed four runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Friday. This was the first time in any of his five outings that he’s allowed more than three earned runs (is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA at home.) The bottom line: Milwuakee is just 1-3 (-2.4 units) in its last four against southpaws, while Chicago is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four against right-handers. We think Davies’ inconsistencies finally catch up to him here and we look for Montgomery to finally get some run support. All things considered, we do indeed believe this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks +199 v. Dodgers | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Alex Wood could arguably be called the best pitcher in the entire league over the first half and not many would with that point. Zack Godley has been awful good for the Diamondbacks as well though. We like Godley to match his red hot counterpart inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, we absolutely feel that the value swings to the hard-hitting visiting side: Godley: He’s 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Godley most recently allowed three runs off two hits while striking out seven over seven innings in an unfortunate setback to the Cards on Wednesday. Goldberg has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back here as he’s 1-1 with 2.84 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a tiny 2.11 ERA in all “night” games. Wood: He’s 9-0 with a 1.83 ERA. Wood most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Wood, so we won’t bother. We simply feel this is a bad spot for LA. The bottom line: We think Wood finally has a bit of a letdown here, which opens the door for the solid dog play on the surging Godley. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals -141 | 9-6 | Loss | -141 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter earlier in the season, but overall he’s been a disappointment for Miami. Mike Leake hasn’t been perfect for St. Louis, but he’s been solid and we think he’ll build off his latest performance: Volquez: He’s 4-8 with a 3.97 ERA. Volquez most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Friday. Previous to that though he’d been shlled for 12 earned runs over 13.2 innings of work. Note that he’s just 2-5 with a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all night games this year. Leake: He’s 6-6 with a 2.97 ERA. Leake most recently allowed one run off five hits and three walks with four K’s over eight innings in a win over Washington Friday. Leake has posted three straight quality starts and has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot with a 3.13 ERA at home and 2.77 ERA in all night contests. The bottom line: These two starters are moving in opposite directions as we approach the half-way point and we’re expecting their recent performance trends to carry over here. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-17 | Angels v. Twins -169 | 2-1 | Loss | -169 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Twins. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely believe that Ervin Santana and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Parker Bridwell: He’s 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA. Bridwell most recently allowed five runs off 11 hits in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. Bridwell’s peripherals (1.31 WHIP and .261 BABIP) suggest that rockier times are ahead. Note that he’s just 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA in all “night” games this year. Santana: He’s 10-5 with a 3.07 ERA. Santana also comes in off an outing to forget, as the Royals would get to him for seven runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings. Santana has cooled down considerably after a torrid two month stretch to open the season, but regardless of that, he’s still 6-3 with a very respectable 3.77 ERA in all night contest this year. The bottom line: All things considered, we feel this is a very fair price. Play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-17 | Padres v. Indians -210 | 6-2 | Loss | -210 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Cleveland Indians. We feel that Trevor Bauer and the hard hitting home side could/should easily be much bigger favorites in this matchup: Luis Perdomo: He’s 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA. Perdomo most recently earned a win despite giving up four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a win over the Braves on Wednesday. Perdomo has been hit-or-miss this year, but has struggled on the road by going 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. Bauer: He’s 7-6 with a 5.24 ERA. Bauer comes in off a gem against the Rangers on Wednesday, giving up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out three over 6.1 innings in the eventual 5-3 victory. Bauer has quietly been playing a lot better, posting a respectable 3.99 ERA and 59 K’s over his last 54.2 frames of work. The bottom line: Bauer is trending in the correct direction and all signs point to the big right-hander continuing his progression as we reach the mid-summer classic. Perdomo though has been a disaster on the road and all signs point to another difficult night in this road venue. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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07-05-17 | Orioles v. Brewers -128 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. We believe that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Vegas is leading us to believe: Jayson Aquino: He’s 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Aquino has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to make this start, stepping in for the struggling Chris Tillman. Aquino owns a poor 4.46 ERA and 55:24 K:W through 12 starts in Triple A this year. Matt Garza: He’s 3-4 with a 4.36 ERA. Garza comes in off a solid performance against Miami on Friday, allowing two runs off six hits and a walk while stirking out three over five innings. Garza has been serviceable this year but has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, having already gone a respectable 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in all night games to this point. The bottom line: Garza and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much bigger favs in this spot, great value. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -143 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -143 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Colorado Rockies. We absolutely feel that Kyle Freeland and the hard-hitting home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this spot: Homer Bailey: He’s 0-2 with a 27.00 ERA. Bailey most recently allowed six runs (with three dingers) and two walks in a loss to Milwaukee on Thursday. So far Bailey has been shelled for 14 runs over 14.2 innings of work spanning two starts. Freeland: He’s 8-6 with a 3.84 ERA. Freeland is coming off a loss to San Francisco on Wednesday, allowing four runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings. Freeland has been solid in his rookie season though, going into the sixth inning over his last 12 starts (is 4-3 with a very respectable 3.21 ERA at Coors Field this year as well.) The bottom line: Is Bailey really as horrible as his nightmarish numbers would suggest? Obviously not, he’s a veteran that’s been around the block, however things aren’t going to get any easier in the thin air of Denver this evening. Freeland on the other hand shows no signs of slowing down and we think he’ll be able to take advantage of familiar surroundings this evening. Note that the Reds are just 4-14 (-10.3 units) against southpaws this year, while Colorado is 33-25 (+6.5 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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07-04-17 | Orioles v. Brewers -141 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Milwaukee Brewers. We believe the the red hot Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup: Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 3-3 with a 6.48 ERA. Jimenez comes off his best start of 2017, going eight scoreless against Toronto on Thursday. In his start prior to that the veteran was blasted for nine runs over two innings to Tampa Bay. Unfortunately for Jimenez, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 2-3 with a poor 6.02 ERA away from friendly confines. Nelson: He’s 6-4 with a 3.43 ERA. Nelson most recently beat the Reds 11-3 on Thursday, striking out 11 over seven innings. Nelson has now posted double-digit K’s in four of his last seven outings and has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, as not only is he a solid 3-3 with a 2.64 ERA at home, but he’s also 2-1 with a minuscule 1.29 ERA in all “day” games. The bottom line: Note that Baltimore is just 4-9 (-3.4 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Milwaukee is 7-1 (+5.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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07-03-17 | Blue Jays +118 v. Yankees | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Toronto Blue Jays. Marcus Stroman is putting together the best start of his career to this point for Toronto. Masahiro Tanaka is struggling through the worst campaign of his career for New York. The Yanks have some big bats, but so too do the Jays. Toronto has struggled this year, but we think that Stroman is the correct call this evening: Stroman: He’s 8-4 with a 3.41 ERA. Stroman was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA and 28 K’s over 31.2 innings of work in June. Stroman allowed just six home runs and posted a quality outing in all by one of trips to the hill. Note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA in all “night” games to this point. Tanaka: He’s 6-7 with a 5.56 ERA. Tanaka gave up two runs off six hits and two walks over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Wednesday. Tanaka has looked better of late, but is still owns a poor 4.75 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. The bottom line: We’re concentrating soley on the starting pitchers for this play. All signs point to Stroman outlasting his inconsistent counterpart. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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07-03-17 | Mets v. Nationals -166 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals. Steven Matz has looked awesome in his limited time since back from major injury, but could be a little fortunate considering the amount of hits he’s given up. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been very solid and is coming off a gem. We look for Matz to finally stumble here and for Strasburg to step up and deliver the goods. Matz: He’s 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA. Matz most recently held the Marlins scoreless over seven innings, allowing six hits and stirking out four. Strasburg: He’s 9-2 with a 3.51 ERA. Strasburg most recently allowed three runs off four hits and a walk while striking out 13 over seven innings in an 8-4 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. It was his fifth double-digit K outing of the year and 11th quality start. The bottom line: New York has been dismal in this spot for bettors all year, going just 29-32 (-6.7 units) in all “night” games, while Washington is 33-14 (+14.8 units) in all night contests. Matz looks primed for a letdown, so lay the price with confidence on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-02-17 | Nationals -124 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Washington Nationals. As good as Carlost Martinez has been for the Cardinals this year, we think that Max Scherzer and the hard-hitting Nationals should/could easily be much bigger favs in this spot: Scherzer: He’s 9-5 with a 2.06 ERA. Scherzer most recently gave up one run off two hits with no walks over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday, also going on to strikeout six. Scherzer has allowed more than one earned run just once over his last seven starts while posting an unreal 75:8 K:BB ratio over his last 54 innings of work (is 6-2 with a 1.62 ERA on the road this season.) Martinez: He’s 6-6 with a 2.88 ERA. Martinez most recently gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out ten over six innings in a no-decision against Arizona on Tuesday. Martinez has been as solid as St. Louis could have possibly hoped for this year, but as mentioned off the top we think this is simply a bad spot for the Cards. The bottom line: Note that Washington is 33-13 (+15.8 units) in all night games, while St. Louis is just 24-29 (-10.2 units) in all night contests. This line should be larger in our opinion, swinging the value to the visitors. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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07-02-17 | Cubs -130 v. Reds | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Chicago Cubs. Jake Arrieta is clearly not the same pitcher as he was three years ago, but we still feel that he has the advantage over Tim Adleman and the Reds today: Arrieta: He’s 7-6 with a 4.67 ERA. Arrieta comes in off an outing to forget against the Nationals on Tuesday, giving up six runs off six hits and six walks across four innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Despite the sub-par perfomance, note that he still owns a respectable 3.32 ERA on the road an an even better 2.77 ERA in all “day” games. Adleman: He’s 5-4 with a 4.62 ERA. Adleman gave up five runs off five hits and three walks while striking out seven over five innings in a fortunate victory over Milwaukee on Tuesday. Adleman has now walked multiple opponents and allowed at least one home run six straight starts, which clearly doesn’t bode well in facing the defending champs this afternoon (note that he’s a poor 1-2 with a 5.68 ERA in all “day” games.) The bottom line: We like Arrieta to bounce back from his worst start of 2017. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Mariners v. Angels -113 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. Ricky Nolasco was pulled from his last start early because he got hit with a come-backer. Nolasco though was putting together his best outing of 2017 before that and we’re expecting the veteran to carry that momentum over here: Sam Gaviglio: He’s 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA. Gaviglio most recently gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Saturday, walking three and striking out three. Note that Gaviglio owns a poor 5.40 ERA on the road this year. Nolasco: He’s 3-9 with a 4.86 ERA. Before he left Monday’s game against the Dodgers, Nolasco went six scoreless. The wily veteran will look to duplicate that performance here. The bottom line: Nolasco has struggled in almost every facet of the game this year, but he’s slowly been making strides in turning things around. Certainly his last start was a big step in the right direction. Gaviglio though has gone the other way and we’re expecting more trouble for the rookie tonight. All things considered, we feel this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -146 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe: Tyler Chatwood: He’s 6-8 with a 4.32 ERA. Chatwood most recently gave up four runs over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Chatwood now owns a horrible 77:50 K:BB ratio and while he’s been much better on the road than at home this season, he’s still a poor 3-7 with a ballooned 5.31 ERA in all “night” games this year. Zach Greinke: He’s 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA. Greinke most recenlty gaveup one run over five innings to go along with five strikeouts in a win over Philadelphia on Monday. His K:BB stands at a strong 114:22 this year and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home by going 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA. The bottom line: Greinke comes in on top form, while Chatwood enters with more questions than answers. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Rays v. Orioles -123 | 10-3 | Loss | -123 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. We think Dylan Bundy will take advantage of friendly confines and outduel his inconsistent counterpart: Jake Odorizzi: He’s 4-3 with a 4.00 ERA. Odorizzi had food poisoning in the days leading up to his last start and it showed as he’d give up four runs over five innings. Note that Odorizzi owns a poor 4.81 ERA on the road this year. Bundy: he’s 8-6 with a 3.73 ERA. Bundy most recently gave up three runs off five hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over these very Rays on Saturday. Bundy had struggled a bit leading up to that gem, but has to be feeling confident now, especially being 4-3 with a respectable 3.26 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Note that Tampa Bay is just 15-18 (-2.4 units) against the division this year, while Baltimore is 24-18 (+8.4 units) against divisional foes. We like Bundy to continue his strong play at home, play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Cubs -123 v. Reds | 3-5 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. We think that Eddie Butler and the defending champs should/could easily be much larger favs in this one: Butler: He’s 4-2 with a 3.71 ERA. Butler tossed five scoreless against Washington on Monday, allowing four hits with no walks and one K. Over his last two starts he’s allowed just one run (note that he owns a respectable 3.71 ERA in all “day” games this year.) Jackson Stephens: He’s 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Stephens has been called up to make this start, he posted a poor 4.97 ERA with 60 strikeouts and 33 walks in 76 innings in the minors. The bottom line: Butler has been far from perfect, but we’re giving him the huge nod in this matchup and that will be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the CUBS this afternoon. AAA Sports |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox -156 v. Blue Jays | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Sale and the Red Sox could/should easily be much bigger ones: Chris Sale: He’s 10-3 with a 2.77 ERA. Sale most recently gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out nine over 6.1 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Monday. To go along with his very respectable 2.77 ERA, Sale also sports a tiny 0.91 WHIP and fantastic 12.3 K/9 (is also 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA on the road and 4-1 with a 2.81 ERA in all “day” games.) Francisco Liriano: He’s 4-3 with a 5.46 ERA. He comes in off perhaps his best start of the season against the Royals on Sunday, allowing two runs off six hits over six innings. Liriano has for the most part been a big disappointment for Toronto, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.06 ERA in front of the home town crowd to this point. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four against right-handed starters, while Toronto is just 6-13 (-10.7 units) against southpaws. No need to overanalyze this one, all signs point to lop-sided destruction from start to finish. Lay the price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-30-17 | Braves +149 v. A's | Top | 3-1 | Win | 149 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Atlanta Braves. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. When trying to assess starting pitchers, “recent performance” is often the best indicator we have in properly judging where a player is at. Mike Foltynewicz comes in off a strong performance and has looked good of late. The A’s Sonny Gray comes in off a strong performance himself, but previous to that had been rocked: Foltynewicz: He’s 5-5 with a 4.10 ERA. Foltynewicz most recently gave up one run off four hits and three walks walks while striking out nine over five innings in a 5-4 victory over Milwaukee on Friday. He’s now given up two runs or less in four of his five starts in June while posting a solid 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 27:11 K:BB ratio over 28.1 frames of work overall this month. Gray: He’s 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA. Gray earned a win over the White Sox on Sunday, allowing two runs off four hits over five innings. Previous to that though he was 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA over five combined starts (note that he’s just 1-3 with a 6.55 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.) The bottom line: ATL is 27-26 (+3.9 units) in all “night” games this year, while Oakland is just 20-27 (-4.1 units) in all night contests. Perfect time to pull the trigger on the dog, play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
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06-30-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -139 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -139 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that Jon Gray is getting way too much respect here in his first start back after a lengthy stint on the DL. Robbie Ray hasn’t been perfect for Arizona, but he’s been damn good this year and he’s certainly been tough at home. All thing considered, we believe this is the very definition of “great line value:” Gray: He’s 0-0 with a 4.38 ERA. Gray made three appearances for Colorado before getting injured, so it’s impossible to say where he’s at with his overall performance at this point. Note that he was just 3-8 with a 4.91 ERA on the road last year. Ray: He’s 8-3 with a 2.87 ERA. Ray comes in off a victory against the Phillies on Saturday, giving up two runs with five strikeouts over six innings. He’s now won six of his last seven decisions and he’ll be looking to improve upon his solid 7-3, 2.54 ERA in all night contests this year. The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we absolutely feel that Ray and the hard-hitting home side should/could be much largers ones. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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06-30-17 | Rays -126 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Tampa Bay Rays. Is Chris Tillman is as horrible as his record would indicate for the Orioles? Probably not. Is Jacob Faria’s current record completely indicative of how his entire career will go? Obviously not. Regardless of those facts though, we still think Faria has a major advantage over the struggling Tillman this evening. Faria: He’s 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA. Faria gave up three runs off five hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Baltimore on Saturday. It was his fourth straight quality start in the big leagues. Tillman: He’s 1-5 with an 8.39 ERA. Tillman most recently gave up five runs off eight hits over four innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday. The veteran has now given up at least three runs in each of his past nine starts and to go along with his horrible 8.39 ERA, he also owns an atrocious 2.18 WHIP. The bottom line: Home field has been anything but an advantage for Tillman either, sitting at a poor 1-3, 6.28 ERA in Baltimore this season. The Orioles have been better at home than on the road this year, but they’re still just 10-15 (-3.9 units) in the month of June and 19-24 (-4.4 units) against clubs with winning records. And note that Tampa is 4-1 (+2.9 units) in its last five against teams with losing records. Play on TAMPA BAY. AAA Sports |
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06-29-17 | Mets v. Marlins -132 | 6-3 | Loss | -132 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. We believe this is a much larger mismatch on the mound than what the bookmakers are leading us to believe: Seth Lugo: He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA. Lugo most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over five innings in a fortunate win over San Francisco on Friday. Lugo has been decent in his three starts this season, but still owns a poor 6.35 ERA in all “night” contests. Jose Urena: He’s 6-2 with a 3.33 ERA. Urena gave up zero runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. Urena has now allowed only three runs over his last 18 innings. Note that he’s 3-2 with a solid 2.98 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this season. The bottom line: We think Urena will easily outduel Lugo and in our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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06-29-17 | Rays v. Pirates -103 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. These two pitchers are moving in opposite directions: Chris Archer: He’s 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA. After a great start to the 2017 campaign, Archer has started to struggle and most recently was shelled for five runs off eight hits and two walks over six innings against the Orioles on Friday. Archer has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings and note that he owns a 4.17 ERA on the road. Jameson Taillon: He’s 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA. Taillon most recently gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision in his team’s 4-3 win over the Cardinals on Friday. Taillon has a 46:18 K:BB ratio over 51 frames of work and is 2-1 with a 2.91 ERA in all night contest this year. The bottom line: We like Taillon to outduel the inconsistent Archer. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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06-29-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -185 | 2-0 | Loss | -185 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. We believe this is a much larger mismatch on the mound than what the bookmakers are leading us to believe: Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 2-3 with a 7.26 ERA. Jimenez most recently was rocked for nine runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out one over 2.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road this as well, just 1-3 with a 7.28 ERA. JA Happ: He’s 2-4 with a 3.83 ERA. Happ most recently allowed one run off four hits while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the KC on Friday. It was Happ’s third straight quality start. The bottom line: Happ has looked a lot better of late after returning from injury and we expect the southpaw to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart this evening. Lay the price, play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-28-17 | Twins v. Red Sox -161 | 4-1 | Loss | -161 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Boston Red Sox. Rick Porcello has for the most part been a complete disaster this year. Last year Porcello was the AL Cy Young winner and was 13-1 at home with a sub-3.00 ERA. Porcello has struggled in every facet this year, but he’s coming off likely his best start of the year and we think he’ll carry that momentum over here: Adalberto Mejia: He’s 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Like Porcello, for the most part the 2nd year pro has struggled, but he does come in off a decent outing against the Indians on Friday, allowing zero runs off two hits and five walks while striking out four across five innings. Mejia hasn’t made it far into games, having only made it into the sixth just once over his last six starts. Porcello: He’s 4-9 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP (last year he was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA). Porcello most recently gave up four runs (three earned) off eight hits and a walk while striking out eight over 6.1 innings in a 9-4 victory over the Angels. 73 of his 102 pitches were for strikes and he gave up no long balls. The bottom line: Porcello comes in with a chip on his shoulder and the big bats’ of Boston chase Mejia early. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-27-17 | Mets v. Marlins -150 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. We believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the bookmakers would like us to think: Robert Gsellman: He’s 5-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Gsellman most recently gave up eight runs over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday, also giving up four dingers. With significant injuries to its rotation, New York has little options at this point, so Gsellman will stay put for now (note that he’s a horrible 2-2 with a 7.71 ERA on the road). Dan Straily: He’s 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Straily most recently gave up one run off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against Washignton on Wednesday. Straily has been on fire of late, having given up just three walks over his last five starts combined (note that he’s a fantastic 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA at home this year). The bottom line: Note that New York is a brutal 18-20 (-6.1 units) against the division already, while Miami is 15-14 (+1.4 units) against the division. All signs point to a lop-sided blowout, play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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06-27-17 | Royals v. Tigers -164 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. Justin Verlander has been inconsistent for the Tigers this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home. We like the veteran to easily outduel his volatile counterpart today though: Matt Strahm: He’s 2-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Strahm was crushed by the Red Sox on Tuesday, allowing five runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over just three frames of work. Note that he’s been at his worst on the road this year, just 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA. Verlander: He’s 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Verlander most recently went six innings agains teh Mariners on Wednesday and gave up three runs off four hits while also striking out 11. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. The bottom line: Note that KC is just 9-18 (-8.2 units) against the divisin, while Detroit is 16-11 (+4.3 units) against the division. We like Verlander to continue his dominance at home. Lay the price, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-27-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. We like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night: Kevin Gausman: He’s 3-7 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. Gausman continued his up-and-down season with a decent performance against the Tribe on Wednesday, allowing three runs off six hits. Gausman though has consistently been at his worst on the road, going just 1-4 with a 9.00 ERA. Joe Biagini: He’s 2-6 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Biagini most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a 7-5 win over the Rangers on Wednesday. Biagini has been inconsistent this year as well, but note that he does own a very respectable 2.93 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Baltimore is just 25-25 (-1.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Toronto is 31-26 (+1.8 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the JAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-26-17 | Yankees -151 v. White Sox | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Yankees. The Yanks have dropped three straight series now, losing four games to Oakland dropping two of three to both the Angels and the Rangers. In what we believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound for it, we look for New York to bounce back with a convincing victory on Monday night: Jordan Montgomery: He’s 5-4 with a 3.74 ERA. Montgomery most recently gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in an 8-4 victory over LA, also going on to strike out five. Montgomery has now won three straight and has a 2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 23:7 K:BB ratio over 24.1 innings in June (has a very respectable 3.74 ERA on the road as well. David Holmberg: He’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Holmberg was rocked for four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four in a loss to Minnesota on Wednesday. So far he owns a modest 20:11 K:BB ratio this year. The bottom line: Both teams have been struggling of late, but we think Montgomery is the correct call here. Look for NEW YORK to get back to its winning ways with a convincing effort. AAA Sports |
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06-26-17 | Twins v. Red Sox -193 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Chris Sale and the hard-hitting home side could/should in fact be much larger ones: Jose Berrios: He’s 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA. Berrios struck out with White Sox over eight innings on Wednesday, giving up two runs off four hits and a walk in the 4-2 victory. Berrios was a disaster last year, but has looked fantastic to this point. Sale: He’s 9-3 with a 2.85 ERA. Sale most recently went 8.1 innings against KC on Tuesday, allowing three runs off four hits and a walk while striking out ten in the victory. Sale fired 79 of his 110 pitches for strikes and now has 146 K’s on the season. The bottom line: Berrios has been awesome, but we think his numbers are unsustainable. Sale on the other hand has the pedigree, track record and experience and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be contending for the Cy Young at the end of the year. Note that Minnesota is already just 4-5 (-0.6 units) this year after three or more consecutive victories, while Boston is 22-11 (+7.6 units) this season following a loss. For us, Sale and the RED SOX are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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06-25-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals -142 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. After falling 7-3 yesterday, we expect St. Louis to take full advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound and to get back on track with a convincing victory on Sunday night: Chad Kuhl: He’s 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA. Kuhl has been consistently inconsistent this year, but does come in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Tuesday, giving up two runs over five innings. Kuhl laboured at times though and needed 98 pitches to through five frames. Note that he’s just 2-6 with a 6.95 ERA in all night contests. Mike Leake: He’s 5-6 with a 3.03 ERA. Leake gave up one run off three hits over six innings while striking out five in an unfortunate no-decision against Philadelphia on Tuesday. Overall Leake has been solid this year, he’ll look to improve upon his 3-3, 2.82 ERA night record now. The bottom line: Kuhl’s WHIP sits at a poor 1.55, while Leake’s is at a solid 1.08. We expect Kuhl to get chased early in this one and all things considered, we feel that this is in fact the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-25-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -170 | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we absolutely feel that Brandon McCarthy and the hard-hitting home side should/could in fact be much largers ones: Tyler Anderson: He’s 3-5 with a 5.75 ERA. Anderson came off the DL recently and went right to the bullpen, but he now transitions back into the starting rotation. So far he’s posted a horrible 5.85 ERA and 59:29 K:BB ratio over 11 starts. Note that he owns a poor 5.51 ERA on the road this season. McCarthy: He’s 6-3 with a 2.87 ERA. McCarthy most recently went six shutout innings against New York on Tueday, scattering four hits and giving up just one free pass. Over his last six starts McCarthy has been particularly sharp, allowing just six total runs (1.57 ERA in that span). Note that he’s been awesome at home as well, 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one. We expect McCarthy to come in focused and for the DODGERS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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06-25-17 | Rangers v. Yankees -210 | 7-6 | Loss | -210 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New York Yankees. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. After yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat, we’re expecting the motivated home side to take full advantage of this big mismatch on the mound: Nick Martinez: He’s 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA. Martinez has been more “miss” than “hit” this season, but does come in off a decent outing against Toronto on Tuesday, giving up one run over six innings. Martinez though has for the most part struggled this year and he’s been at his worst on the road, just 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA. Michael Pineda: He’s 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA. Pineda comes in off a no-decision against the Angels on Tuesday, allowing three runs (one earned) while striking out seven over six innings. Note that Pineda has been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year, 6-1 with a tiny 1.92 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Texas is just 27-30 (-1.9 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is 31-23 (+2 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-24-17 | Angels v. Red Sox -196 | 6-3 | Loss | -196 | 29 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we definitely feel that David Price and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much larger ones: JC Ramirez: He’s 6-5 with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Ramirez most recently gave up five runs off five hits and four walks over three innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Ramirez has regressed as the season has progressed and has now allowed 18 runs over his past four starts. David Price: He’s 2-1 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Price comes in off his best start of the year following a late season start after surgery, giving up three runs off eight hits with three K’s over five frames in a victory over the Astros on Sunday. The bottom line: We think these two pitchers are clearly moving in opposite directions right now. Ramirez was masterful over the first month, but has come back down to Earth. Price has yet to fully find his rythym this year, but his recent form would suggest that he’s ready to take another step forward tonight. LA is 17-22 (-1.1 units) on the road this season, while Boston is 21-11 (+5.4 units) at home. Lay the price on Price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-24-17 | Cubs -148 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. We think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe: Jon Lester: He’s 4-4 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Most recently he gave up two runs off five hits while stirking out seven over six innings in a no-decision on Monday. Lester has so far struggled on the road, but his track record would suggest that he’ll be able to start tightening up his peripherals as the season wares on. Justin Nicolino: He’s 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Nicolino returned from injury to get rocked for six runs off six hits over three innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Monday. The bottom line: The Cubs are 11-6 (+3.5 units) against southpaws this year, while Miami is just 6-7 (-1 unit) against lefties. After yesterday’s 2-0 defeat, we look for the CUBS to respond on Saturday night. AAA Sports |
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06-23-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -190 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. We’re playing three larger favorites in this three-game report and are obviously expecting to sweep the board. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Alex Wood and the home side could/should easily be much larger ones: Kyle Freeland: He’s 8-4 with a 3.42 ERA. Freeland most recently gave up just one run over six innings in a win over San Francisco on Saturday. Previous to that though he’d been destroyed by the Pirates. The rookie has so far been solid at home and on the road, but if he’s had one area of weakness, it’s clearly been his play in all “night” contests, just 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA. Wood: He’s 7-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Wood gave up a single run off four hits while striking out five over eight innings in a victory over the Reds on Friday. To go along with his awesome 1.90 ERA, Wood also sports a minuscule 0.92 WHIP and fantastic 10.5 K/9 ratio. Note that Wood has been at his best at home as well this year, 5-0 with a 1.89 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is alreay just 1-2 (-0.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 16-3 (+9.8 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-23-17 | Orioles v. Rays -200 | 5-15 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. We’re playing three larger favorites in this three-game report and are obviously expecting to sweep the board. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Chris Archer and the home side could/should easily be much bigger ones: Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Jimenez comes in off his best outing of the year, giving up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Let’s not read too much into one decent outing though as for the most part Jimenez has been a train-wreck this year, going just 1-2 with a poor 5.50 ERA on the road. Archer: He’s 5-4 with a 3.75 ERA. Archer comes in off a gem against the Tigers on Saturday, giving up two runs off six hits to go along with eight K’s over six innings. Archer hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been solid and has now produced a quality start in four of his last six outings. Note that while he’s just 2-2 at home, he does own a respecatble 3.40 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Baltimore is just 11-23 (-12.5 units) on the road this year, while Tampa Bay is 23-16 (+3.3 units) at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-23-17 | Reds v. Nationals -247 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals. We’re playing three larger favorites in this three-game report and are obviously expecting to sweep the board. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case we feel that Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals could/should easily be much larger ones. Luis Castillo: He’s making his MLB debut tonight. Castillo has been awesome in the minors with a 2.58 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 81:13 K:BB ratio over 80.1 innings of work. Dominating minor leaguers is one thing, but dominating MLB’s top offense is quite another. Clearly this is a tough first assignment for hte rookie. Strasburg: He’s 8-2 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Strasburg most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out five over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Saturday. It wasn’t his best outing of the season, but note that he’s been consistent at home, 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Cincinatti is just 2-7 (-3.2 units) in its last nine “night” contests (just 20-23 overall this year), while Washington is 30-11 (+15.4 units) in all “night” games. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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06-22-17 | Giants v. Braves -150 | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Atlanta Braves. The Braves won in extra innings last night and we like the home side to take advantage of another favorable pitching matchup and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night Thursday as well: Matt Cain: He’s 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA. Cain most recently gave up two runs over five innings, while also allowing nine hits on 83 pitches in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. He has just 46 K’s in 74 innings of work and his WHIP now sits at an uninspiring 1.69. Note that he’s failed to go deeper than the fifth inning in any of his last four starts, which doesn’t bode well this evening as he’s already 0-4 with a 7.46 ERA on the road this season. Jamie Garcia: He’s 2-5 with 3.59 ERA. Garcia most recently was rocked for six runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings on Saturday while also striking out seven, lucky to earn a no-decision for his effort. Previous to that though he’d allowed just six earned runs (1.49 ERA) over a five-game stretch of excellence. His WHIP stands at a respectable 1.26 and while he’s 0-3 at home, he owns a decent 3.63 ERA in Atlanta. The bottom line: Garcia also has a 2.84 ERA in all “night” games this year. No need to overthink this one in our opinion. These teams are a “wash” at the plate right now, but Cain has been a train-wreck on the road and we expect that trend of futility to carry over into this one. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-22-17 | Cardinals -135 v. Phillies | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals bettors are feeling a bit lucky this morning after their teams come from behind victory in extra innings last night. We think this afternoon’s matchup will be much more decisive in nature though, as we expect Carlos Martinez to continue his hot start to the 2017 campaign and to easily outduel his volatile counterpart: Martinez: He’s 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA. Martinez most recently gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings in a win over the Orioles on Friday. Previous to that Martinez had gone nine shutout frames. He’s on pace for a career campaign, also posting a 1.05 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. Aaron Nola: He’s 3-5 with a 4.76 ERA. Nola most recently was shelled for five runs off nine hits over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. He needed 106 pitches to through the effort and now owns a pedestrian 1.35 WHIP (note that he’s been horrible at home too, just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.50 ERA). The bottom line: St. Louis is winning the games it’s supposed to, now 18-12 (+3.2 units) against clubs with losing records this season, while Philadelphia continues to struggle in that department, going just 9-18 (-9.2 units) against teams with losing records this year. We like Martinez to come in focused and for the CARDINALS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. AAA Sports |
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06-21-17 | Tigers v. Mariners -125 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Seattle Mariners. Both pitchers started the season off hot and each has cooled off since. However, Justin Verlander has been a train-wreck on the road, while James Paxton has been almost unstoppable at home. All things considered, we feel this is the very definition of “great line value:” Verlander: He’s 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Verlander comes in off a win against the Rays on Thursday by allowing two runs off six hits and five walks while striking out six through seven innings. While he’s been great at home, Verlander has posted a deplorable 7.22 ERA on the road this season. Paxton: He’s 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA. Paxton comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off seven hits while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a 10-4 loss to the Rangers on Friday. Paxton is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA on the road, but 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA at home. The bottom line: We like SEATTLE to build off last night’s victory and take advantage of this favorable matchup. AAA Sports |
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06-20-17 | Mets v. Dodgers -190 | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. We feel that the home side could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this particular matchup: Robert Gsellman: He’s 5-4 with a 5.50 ERA. Gsellman most recently allowed seven runs off 11 hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. To go along with his uninspiring 5.50 ERA, Gsellman also sports an unimpressive 1.54 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 ratio. Also note that he owns a poor 6.33 ERA on the road this season. Brandon McCarthy: He’s 5-3 with a 3.14 ERA. McCarthy most recently held the hard-hitting Indians to one run off three hits and two walks over 5.1 innings on Wednesday. McCarthy hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been better than serviceable and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his very respectable 3-1, 2.83 home record/ERA. The bottom line: Note that New York is just 17-21 (-8.1 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 10-4 (+3.4 units) after three or more consecutive victories. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-20-17 | Red Sox -179 v. Royals | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Boston Red Sox. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, which makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying: Chris Sale: He’s 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA. Sale most recently gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out ten in a loss to Philadelphia on Thursday. Sale has to be frustrated about that, as he was out pitched by rookie Nick Pivetta in that one. Regardless, the southpaw also sports an elite 0.93 WHIP and 12.4 K/9. Matt Strahm: He’s 2-3 with a 3.67 ERA. Strahm most recently went five scoreless against the Angels on Thursday, coming through with a victory in his first major league start. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one. The Red Sox are looking to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-2 defeat and have to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as they’re already 20-10 (+7.2 units) this season after a loss. KC has looked a lot better of late, but we think it’s important to point out that it’s just 7-10 (-2.1 units) against left-handed starters this year. Strahm may go on to have a great career in the big leagues, but Sale comes into this one as arguably the hottest/most consistent pitcher on the planet right now. Lay the price with confidence, play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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06-20-17 | Padres v. Cubs -192 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately we feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe: Jhoulys Chacin: He’s 6-5 with a 5.10 ERA. Chacin comes in off a decent outing, allowing two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Reds on Wednesday. Chacin has looked a bit better of late, but note that while he’s a very respectable 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA at home, he’s only 2-4 with a ballooned 10.27 ERA on the road. Mike Montgomery: He’s 0-3 with a 2.56 ERA. Montgomery most recently gave up three runs off six hits and a walk over five innings against the Mets on Wednesday. Montgomery hasn’t been spectacular in his limited time, he does however sport a nice 2.45 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. The bottom line: Note that the Padres are just 2-8 (-4.2 units) as road dogs in the +175 to +250 range, while the Cubs are 12-5 (+1.8 units) as home favs in the -175 to -250 range. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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06-20-17 | Cardinals -139 v. Phillies | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Mike Leake started the season on fire, but has since cooled off. Jeremey Hellickson was supposed to be trade bait for the Phillies this year, but he’s been a complete dumpster fire since the get-go. Regardless of Leake’s recent struggles, we still think the hard-throwing right-hander has a big advantage in this one: Leake: He’s 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Leake most recently allowed six urns off nine hits while striking out just three in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Over his first nine starts he posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, but over his last 24.2 innings he’s got a 6.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Note though that Leake has consistently been at his best on the road this year, so far 4-2 with a very respectable 2.95 ERA. Hellickson: He’s 5-5 with 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Hellickson comes in off his fifth loss of the year on Wednesday, giving up six runs off nine hits over five innings. He’d go on to strike out just one while walking three. Over his last nine starts Hellickson has gone 1-5 with 6.89 ERA and 23:20 K:BB ratio spanning 47 innings of work. Note that he’s just 2-2 with a poor 5.21 ERA at home. The bottom line: Is Leake as good as what his first nine games would have indicated? Clearly the answer is no, as he’s been scuffling of late. But is Leake as bad as what his current form would suggest? We also think that the answer is no as well. Hellickson has been a disaster at home and all signs point to another meltdown Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-20-17 | Angels v. Yankees -225 | 8-3 | Loss | -225 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New York Yankees. This is a pitching mismatch of epic proportions, a talent discrepancy so large that it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying: Parker Bridwell: He’s 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Bridwell has been re-called to fill the void left by starter Matt Shoemaker. Bridwell would give up three runs over six frames in his only start for LA back on May 30th. Michael Pineda: He’s 7-3 with a 3.71 ERA. Pineda lost to the Angels last week, giving up five runs off ten hits over six innings. Previous to that dud he’d gone seven scoreless against Boston to go along with eight K’s. Pineda has struggled on the road, but been a beast at home with a 6-1, 1.96 record/ERA. The bottom line: Note that LA is just 25-29 (-2.9 units) this year against right-handed starters, while New York is 29-21 (+5.2 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -220 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. Clayton Richard has been better than expected this season for the Padres, while Jon Lester has so far failed to live up to his incredible 2016 pace. Regardless of these facts, we think that Lester could/should easily be a much bigger fav in this spot, indeed swinging the value to the home side this evening: Richard: He’s 4-7 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Richard most recently gave up two runs off eight hits over 8.2 innings in a 6-2 victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. As stated off the top, Richard has for the most part been pretty solid this year, although he does own an uninspiring 1-4, 4.39 road record/ERA. Lester: He’s 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Lester enters off a gem, striking out ten over seven innings while giving up one run off five hits and one walk in a 14-3 rout of the Mets. Note that Lester has been “lights out” at home this year as well, going 3-1 with a highly respectable 2.65 ERA. The bottom line: San Diego is 7-11 (-2.8 units) against lefties this year, while Chicago is 9-6 (+1.6 units) against southpaws. This is a steep price, but we think Lester will easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and continue his string of strong perfomances in front of the home town crowd. The CUBS take advantage and win this one with relative ease. AAA Sports |
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06-19-17 | Indians -145 v. Orioles | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH is on the Cleveland Indians. Dylan Bundy has been one of the most consistent pitchers on the Orioles rotation, but his peripheral numbers are suggesting that some immediate regression is on the horizon. The Indians are hoping that Corey Kluber can continue his recent form and we are in fact banking on it. In our opinion, this line should/could easily be a lot higher: Kluber: He’s 5-2 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Kluber comes in off a strong outing against the Dodgers on Wednesday, but was unfortunate to receive a no-decision after giving up two runs off four hits and one walk to go along with ten K’s over seven frames. Kluber has been better at home (4-0, 3.90) than on the road this year (1-2, 4.50), but note that he’s 3-1 with 4.26 ERA in all night games. Bundy: He’s 6-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Bundy comes in off a poor outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up five runs off six hits and three walks over five innings, very fortunate to receive a win in the sub-par effort. Bundy’s 4.53 FIP and lacklustre 6.5 K/9 make his current ERA unsustainable though. The bottom line: Bundy has thrown better at home and the Orioles themselves have so far played much better in Baltimore than on the road this year, but we think Kluber is the correct call in this matchup. Bundy’s last start was a sign of things to come in our opinion. Both teams have looked better at the plate of late, but Kluber outduels his counterpart in the end. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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06-18-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -182 | 7-3 | Loss | -182 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Texas Rangers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Yu Darvish and the hard-hitting home side could/should easily be much largers ones: Christian Bergman: He’s 3-4 with a 5.75 ERA. Bergman most recently was crushed for nine runs off ten hits over 2.2 innings against the Twins on Tuesday. So far he’s given up ten home runs over 40.2 innings of work and his atrocious 5.91 FIP suggests that things are likely going to get a lot worse. Darvish: he’s 6-4 with a 3.03 ERA. Darvish gave up one run off one hit and three walks while striking out four over seven innings in a win over the Astros on Monday. The bottom line: Bergman is 1-3 with a 10.61 ERA on the road this year, while Darvish is 3-2 with a 3.31 ERA at home. We’re expecting a lop-sided destruction from start to finish, so lay the price with confidence! Play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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06-18-17 | Padres v. Brewers -155 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. We went 4-1 with out 5-game MLB report yesterday, our only loser was Milwaukee in extra innings. Suffice it to say, we expect the hard-hitting home side to avenge that setback and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon: Luis Perdomo: He’s 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Perdomo comes in off his first win of the season on Monday, giving up three runs off sevne hits and two walks while striking out four over 6.2 innings against Cincinnati on Monday. Perdomo has looked better of late, but note that he’s a poor 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA on the road so far this year. Jimmy Nelson: He’s 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA. Nelson most recently gave up four runs off nine hits while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Tuesday. Previous to that he’d posted a 2.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 48:7 K:BB ratio over seven combined starts. Note that he owns a respectable 3.12 ERA at home so far this year. The bottom line: Note that the Padres are just 20-30 (-5.3 units) this year against right-handed starters, while the Brewers are 29-23 (+12 units) against right-handed starters. All thigns considered, we feel this is a very fair price. Play on the BREWERS. AAA Sports |
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06-18-17 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -168 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. After dropping the first two games of this series, we look for the hungry Blue Jays to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon in the finale: James Shields: He’s 1-0 with a 1.62 ERA. After struggling for many seasons, Shields looked good to open the 2017 campaign, but was immediately placed in the DL. Shields made a successful re-hab and looked decent in three Triple-A starts, but clearly this will be a tough test for the veteran. Note that Shields was 1-8 with a 7.50 ERA on the road last year. JA Happ: He’s 1-4 with a 4.31 ERA. Happ won 20 games in 2016, but has struggled to regain his form since returning to the rotation from injury. However, Happ comes off his best start of the season, a victory over the Mariners on Sunday, allowing zero runs off six hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings of work. Note that Happ was 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA at home last year. The bottom line: We think the White Sox take the mental foot off the gas. We also believe that Happ has a significant advantage over the volatile Shields. When you add it all up, it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. Play on the BLUE JAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-17-17 | Cubs v. Pirates +125 | 3-4 | Win | 125 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh had won four in a row before dropping the finale of a three-game set to Colorado, followed by another setback in yesterday’s series opener with the Cubs, 9-5. With its ace on the mound though, we like Pittsburgh to bounce back on Saturday night: Jake Arrieta: He’s 6-4 with a 4.68 ERA. Arrieta most recently gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Sunday. Arrieta isn’t the pitcher he used to be, but his peripherals remain solid. That said, he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road this year, just 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA. Nova: He’s 6-4 with a 2.83 ERA. Nova comes in off a gem against the Marlins on Sunday, going six scoreless with just one hit and four K’s in the victory. He needed only 77 pitches to get through the start, 50 of which went for strikes. Note that Nova has been particularly sharp at home this year, going 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA. The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Nova is the correct call. Arrieta has struggled on the road, while Nova has dominated at home. Great value, play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports |
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06-17-17 | Cleveland Indians - Game #2 -125 v. Minnesota Twins - Game #2 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. Minnesota made an overnight pitching change for the double-header on Saturday, switching Adam Wilk from the evening game to the afternoon game, meaning that Aldaberto Mejia gets the call for the home side in the night-cap. All of this uncertainty benefits Mike Clevinger and the opportunistic Indians today in our opinion: Clevinger: He’s 2-3 with a 4.09 ERA. Clevinger was rocked in his last start in Colorado, but previous to that he’d posted 21 K’s and a 3.38 ERA over 18.2 innings of work. Note that Clevinger is 2-1 with a very respectable 2.70 ERA on the road this year. Mejia: He’s 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA. Mejia was most recently crushed for nine runs in his last start. Note that he’s been particularly horrible at home this year, just 1-1 with a 6.56 ERA. The bottom line: Clevinger clearly gets the nod in this matchup. Coors Field is difficult on even the best in the league, so we aren’t reading too much into his last performance. Mejia though has been consistently terrible in his time and nothing is going to change tonight either. Lay the price with confidence, play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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06-17-17 | Diamondbacks -128 v. Phillies | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Zack Godley has been fantastic this year. Jerad Eickhoff has been horrible. The Diamondbacks offer great value in this spot: Godley: He’s 2-1 with a 2.44 ERA. Godley comes in off a 3-2 win over Milwaukee on Saturday, giving up two runs off two hits while striking out four over seven innings of work. Since taking over in the rotation for the injured Shelby Miller, Godley has made the most of his time by posting a 2.44 ERA and tiny 0.99 WHIP. Eickhoff: He’s 0-7 with a 5.09 ERA. Eickhoff most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks across six innings in a no-decision against Boston on Monday. Note that Eickhoff is 0-2 with a ballooned 5.46 ERA at home this season. The bottom line: Note that Arizona is 31-18 (+12.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 14-13 (-17 units) against right-handed starters. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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06-17-17 | Padres v. Brewers -152 | 7-5 | Loss | -152 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Brewers. We think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are tying to make us believe: Dinelson Lamet: He’s 2-2 with an 8.50 ERA. Lamet was rocked for seven runs (including three dingers) over five innings in a loss to KC on Sunday. After a great debut, the rookie has predictably stumbled since. Note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA. Chase Anderson: He’s 5-2 with a 2.83 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up one run and struck out eight over six innings, unfortunate to receive a loss for his stellar effort. Over the last month Anderson has lowered his ERA from 4.25 to 2.83, a strech in which he’s posted 30 K’s. Note that he’s been particularly sharp at home this season as well by going 2-0 with a minuscule 1.69 ERA. The bottom line: Note that the Friars are just 20-29 (-4.3 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Milwaukee is 28-23 (+11 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on MILWAUKEE. AAA Sports |
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06-17-17 | Nationals -156 v. Mets | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Just like our play on the Brewers today, we think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe: Stephen Strasburg: He’s 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA. Strasburg comes in off his worst start of the year against Atlanta on Monday, earning a fortunate no-decision after giving up six runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out ten over five innings in the eventual 11-10 setback. The silver-lining was that it was his third double-digit strikeout performance over his last five starts. Seth Lugo: He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Lugo gave up one run off six hits in a win over the Braves in his season debut on Sunday. Lugo was dominant in eight starts last year with a 2.67 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and while he did look good in his first start this season, we still think that the book is out on the 27 year old. The bottom line: Strasburg is 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA on the road this year. The Nationals are clearly a stiff test for Lugo and we expect some predictable regression in his second start of the season. Lay the price with confidence, play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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06-16-17 | Giants v. Rockies -111 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. We think that “The Shark” will struggle at Coors field and we’re expecting the home side’s rookie hurler to continue his impressive start to his career: Jeff Samardzija: He’s 2-8 with a 4.31 ERA. Samardzija most recently gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Samardzija has looked better of late, but note that he’s just 1-4 witha 4.28 ERA on the road this year. Antonio Senzatela: He’s 8-2 with a 3.84 ERA. Senzatela is looking to bounce back after allowing four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out six in a loss to Chicago on Sunday. He’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd though, so far posting a fantastic 3.18 ERA at Coors Field. The bottom line: All signs point to Senzatela continuing his strong play at home, while Samardzija looks primed for a classic letdown in this venue. Play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox +114 v. Astros | 2-1 | Win | 114 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. We think this one favors the lefty Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting Red Sox: Pomeranz: He’s 6-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Pomeranz comes in off an outing to forget in which he allowed six runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out two over 4.1 innings in an 8-3 loss to Detroit on Sunday. The dud ended a three-game streak of quality outings. Note that he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.91 ERA on the road thus far. Mike Fiers: He’s 4-2 with a 4.29 ERA. Fiers comes in off a good start against the Angels on Saturday, giving up one unearned run off two hits over seven innings. Fiers has looked better of late after a shaky start to the 2017 campaign, note though that he still owns an unimpressive 5.01 ERA in all “night” contests this year. The bottom line: We think Pomeranz bounces back and we’re expecting Fiers to finally have a letdown here. Great value, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-16-17 | Dodgers -168 v. Reds | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Alex Wood and the Dodgers could/shoudl easily be much larger ones: Wood: He’s 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA. Wood made a successful return from the DL by going six innings and giving up three runs off five hits while issuing zero walks and striking out seven against the Reds on Saturday. Note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA on the road this year. Tim Adleman: He’s 4-2 with a 4.34 ERA. Adleman has looked better of late, most recently giving up one run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in victory over St. Louis last Tuesday. Wood owns a 4.13 ERA at home thus far. The bottom line: We think LA’s hard-throwing southpaw has a big advantage in this matchup and we’re expecting the hard-hitting visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-16-17 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -148 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -148 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Blue Jays. Joe Biagini hasn’t gotten much support from his team yet this year, but we expect that to change in a big way in the opener of this three game set. Jose Quintana: He’s 2-7 with a 5.30 ERA. Quintana most recently gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. Quintana labored through the start by throwing just 57 percent of his pitches for strikes. To his credit Quintana has looked better of late, but note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA on the road this year. Biagini: He’s just 1-5, but with a solid 3.38 ERA. Most recently he went seven innings and gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out five in an unfortunate setback to Seattle on Friday. Biagini has gotten better as the season has progressed, posting a 2.70 ERA and 18:4 K:BB ratio over his last three trips to the hill. The bottom line: Biagini is just 1-1 in Toronto this year, but owns a spectacular 1.01 ERA North of the border. Biagini is still looking to cement his place in the rotation and we think it’s just a matter of time until he finally sees some support. And here it is, the perfect opponent as Quintana has consistently been at his most inconsistent away from friendly confines this season. All things considered, we feel this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-15-17 | Giants v. Rockies -146 | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. The bottom line is we believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound that what Las Vegas is leading us to believe: Matt Moore: He’s 2-7 with a 5.28 ERA. Moore most recently was blasted for four runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings to fall to 2-7 with a 5.28 ERA. Moore was lucky that he did not in fact give up even more runs, as he would allow ten baserunners in that one. Moore has been decent at home this year, 2-3 with a 3.07 ERA, compared to 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA on the road. Jeff Hoffman: He’s 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA. Hoffman most recently allowed one run off four hits and a walk while striking out eight over 6.1 innings in a win over Chicago on Saturday. Hoffman has made the most of his time this season, through 27 innings of work he’s posted a 2.33 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and notched 34 K’s to just three walks. The bottom line: Coors Field is a nightmare for even the most elite pitchers in the league and Moore certainly isn’t considered an elite hurler. Moore has been an absolute disaster on the road and all signs point to another implosion on Thursday night. This line could/should easily be a lot higher in our opinion, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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06-15-17 | Red Sox -220 v. Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -220 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we believe that Red Sox ace’ Chris Sale could/shoudl easily be a much bigger one: Sale: He’s 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA. Sale most recently gave up three runs off nine hits over seven innings in a win over Detroit on Saturday, issuing zero walks and striking out seven in the process. Sale hasn’t been quite as sharp as he was over the first month of the 2017 campaign, but he’s still won six straight decisions in a row and note that he’s been strong in this spot all year, going 3-1 with 3.63 ERA on the road thus far. Nick Pivetta: He’s 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA. Pivetta most recently gave up four runs off four hits and four walks while striking out just two through five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. The rookie looked good in his MLB debut, but has regressed noticeably since. Note that he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 7.20 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 10-3 (+6.8 units) this year in all interleague contests, while Philadelphia is 0-7 (-7.1 units) in the same position. This is a matchup of David vs. Goliath, but in this version, the giant stomps the underdog through the pavement! Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-14-17 | Dodgers +134 v. Indians | 6-4 | Win | 134 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOP DOG DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. We had a play on the Dodgers last night and we expect the hard-hitting visitors to build off that victory and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Wednesday as well: Brandon McCarthy: He’s 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA. McCarthy most recently held Washington to two runs off three hits over seven innings on Tuesday, unfortuante to receive a loss in the eventual 2-1 setback. McCarthy’s peripherals (71.7 percent strand rate and 3.17 FIP), suggest that his numbers so far this year are no fluke. Corey Kluber: He’s 5-3 with a 4.38 ERA. Kluber most recently allowed three runs off seven hits over six innings. So far he owns and 18/3 K/W ratio since returning from injury. Note that despite a 4-0 record at home, he owns a rather pedestrian 4.26 ERA. The bottom line: LA won its first interleague game of the year last night, while the Tribe fell to 1-8 (-9.7 units) in such instances. We think that the DODGERS have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. AAA Sports |
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06-13-17 | Dodgers -171 v. Indians | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT WINNER on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers could easily be much bigger ones: Kershaw: He’s 8-2 with a 2.20 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up one run off three hits and three walks over seven innings to go along with nine K’s in a 2-1 win over the Nationals on Wednesday. Note that it was the eighth time in 13 starts this season that he’s allowed one run or fewer. Kershaw continues to roll and has been at his absolute best on the road this season with a 4-1, 1.96 record/ERA. Trevor Bauer: He’s 5-5 with a 6.10 ERA. Bauer most recently gave up four runs off five hits and five walks with three K’s over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Rockies on Wednesday. Bauer has now allowed three or more runs in seven of his last eight starts and note that he owns a poor 5.52 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. The bottom line: Note that LA is already 4-1 (+2 units) this year as a road favorite of -175 or more, while Cleveland is just 1-7 (-8.7 units) in all interlegaue contests. This is a mismatch of epic proportions, lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-12-17 | Braves v. Nationals -230 | 11-10 | Loss | -230 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT is on the Washington Nationals. A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Monday night, but in our opinion, Stephen Strasburg has a considerable advantage over his inconsistent counterpart: Mike Foltynewicz: He’s 4-5 with a 3.48 ERA. Foltynewicz comes in on top form, most recently holding the Phillies scoreless over seven innings, giving up just four hits and two walks while striking out four. That’s now back-to-back seven frame shutout performances for the crafty right-hander. Foltynewicz has been far from perfect this season though and clearly this is a tough matchup tonight in the Nation’s capital. Stephen Strasburg: He’s 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA. Strasburg most recently gave up two runs (one earned) off three hits and one walk to go along with eight K’s over six innings in an unfortunate loss against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw earned the win for LA. Strasburg had won four straight outings previous to that and note that it was the seventh time this year that he’s struck out at least eight batters. The bottom line: Strasburg has been tough at home as well, going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Note that the Braves are just 12-21 (-7.3 units) this year following a loss, while Washingotn is 26-9 (+14.8 units) in all “night” contets. Strasburg is the play here, lay the price with confidence. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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06-11-17 | Tigers v. Red Sox -161 | 8-3 | Loss | -161 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Boston Red Sox. Ultimately we believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe: Daniel Norris: He’s 2-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Norris gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-3 loss to the Angels on Tuesday. Drew Pomeranz: He’s 6-4 with a 4.02 ERA. Pomeranz most recently allowed two runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a win over New York on Tuesday, also going on to strike out seven. Pomeranz has posted a tiny 2.04 ERA over his last four starts to go along with an impressive 32:5 K:BB and a 3-0 record spanning 22 frames of work. The bottom line: These two pitchers are moving in opposite directions. Norris has regressed as the season has progressed, while Pomeranz finally appears as if he’s made the transition from the NL to the AL as he enters this one on top form. Lay the price with confidence, play on the hard-hitting RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-11-17 | Rockies v. Cubs -179 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCh on the Chicago Cubs. After a five-game win streak, the Cubs have lost four in a row, including three straight to the Rockies. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the defending champs to battle hard and to find a way to get the job done in the finale of this four-game set. Antonio Senzatela: He’s 8-2 with a 3.56 ERA. Senzatela most recently gave up three runs off six hits and a walk over six innings in an 11-3 win over the Indians on Tuesday. He’s been better at Coors Field oddly enough than on the road, but his peripherals suggest some immediate regression, as he owns a subpar .255 BAPIP and 5.9 K/9. Jake Arrieta: He’s 6-4 with a 4.46 ERA. Arrieta most recently gave up two runs off two hits and three walks over six innings in a win over Miami on Tuesday, also going on to strike-out five. Arrieta isn’t the pitcher he was two years ago, but his peripherals this season suggest that he’s been the victim of some bad luck, as his FIP is a run lower (3.57) than his ERA, while he’s also posted a career-best 10.0 K/9 as well. The bottom line: We think the Rockies get caught looking ahead and the desperate home side finds a way to get the job done with the superior starter on the mound. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals -185 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* PITCHING MISMATCH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we think that Carlos Martinez and the Cardinals could/should easily be much bigger ones. Nick Pivetta: He’s 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Pivetta allowed three runs off six hits and three walks over five innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. This was Pivetta’s first start in the majors since mid-May. To go along with his sub-par 5.18 ERA, he alos sports an uninspiring 25:12 K:BB through 24.1 innings. Martinez: He’s 4-5 with a 3.29 ERA. Martinez allowed four runs off four hits and two walks across 6.1 innings in his team’s loss to Cincinnati on Monday. He’d go on to strike out eight. The hard-throwing right-hander has now struck out 26 over his last 21.2 innings of work. The four runs given up ended a string of seven straight starts in which he’s allowed no more than three earned runs. Note that he’s 3-1 with a tiny 2.19 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia is an atrocious 3-12 (-7.4 units) as a road dog of +125 to +175, while St. Louis is 4-1 (+2.2 units) this year as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. We look for the CARDINALS to take full advantage of this favorable matchup, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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06-09-17 | White Sox v. Indians -245 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Corey Kluber and the home side could/should easily be much larger ones. Miguel Gonzalez: He’s 4-6 with a 4.83 ERA. Gonzalez was most recently shelled for six runs off ten hits (including three dingers) while striking out just one over six innings in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. Over his past five outings the right-hander has posted a poor 4.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 5.2 K/9 and has givenup 24 runs over 29.1 inning of work. Note that Gonzalez has consistently been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-5 with a 5.74 ERA thus far. Kluber: He’s 4-2 with a 4.36 ERA. Kluber returned from the DL to throw six scoreless innings to go along with ten K’s in a victory over the A’s on Thursday. Kluber was dominant in allowing just two hits and a single walk. His 10.6 K.9 is among the best in the league. The bottom line: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Play on CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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06-08-17 | Angels v. Tigers -140 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Tigers. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. JC Ramirez: He’s 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. Ramirez was most recently shelled for seven runs off eight hits, including three home runs over just 4.1 innings in a loss to Minnesota on Friday. Ramirez started the season strong, but has now served up eight home runs over his last five starts. Michael Fulmer: He’s 6-3 with a 3.00 ERA. Fulmer comes in off a victory and is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in all “day” games this year. And that’s significant, because in his rookie season he was 5-0 with a minuscule 1.78 ERA in all “day” contests. The bottom line: For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to assess starters, “recent performance” is often the best indicator we can use. In this particular case, there’s no question that Fulmer has the advantage. These two starters are moving in opposite directions and in our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-07-17 | Phillies v. Braves -127 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. This is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe: Jerad Eickhoff: He’s 0-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He gave up five runs over just 2.2 innings to the Giants on Friday. Note that he’s 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA on the road. Mike Foltynewicz: He’s 3-5 with a 3.90 ERA. He went seven scoreless against the Reds on Friday, striking out ten. Note that he’s posted a 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24:6 K:BB over his last five starts combined. The bottom line: We feel this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-06-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -180 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks could/should easily be much larger ones. Dinelson Lamet: He’s 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA. Lamet most recently gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. So far through two starts Lamet has looked very good, but we’ll caution in getting to overly optimistic about the rookie at this point. Clearly the sample size is just too small and regression after early success seems imminent. Ray: He’s 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA. Ray most recently pitched a complete-game shutout against the Pirates on Tuesday, scattering four hits and posting ten strikeouts. Ray has now pushed his scorless inning streak to 24.2 spannign three starts, while also posting 25 K’s in that span. Note tha the’s 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA in all “night” games this season. The bottom line: Note that San Diego is just 5-9 (-2.8 units) against southpaws this year, while Arizona is 25-17 (+8 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-06-17 | Marlins v. Cubs -205 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Chicago Cubs. We think Jake Arrieta is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Jeff Locke: He’s 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA. In his Marlins debut on Thursday he’d give up one run off three hits over five innings in a no-decision against Arizona. Locke looked good in his first start of the year, but we’ll caution in reading too much into one decent out and point out that he was just 4-6 with a ballooned 7.16 ERA in all road games last season. Arrieta: He’s 5-4 with a 4.60 ERA. Arrieta most recently allowed one run off five hits and two walks over six innings while also striking out seven in a no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday. Despite his sub-par ERA, Arrieta still owns an extremely impressive 71:17 K/W ratio through 62.2 innings of work. The bottom line: Arrieta has been at his most consistent at home this season, going 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided destruction. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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06-06-17 | White Sox v. Rays -162 | 4-2 | Loss | -162 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. We think that Tampa should be a much bigger favorite in this particular matchup. Jose Quintana: He’s 2-7 with a 5.60 ERA. Quintana most recently was rocked for seven runs off ten hits while striking out four over just 2.2 innings in a 13-7 setback to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Quintana has been a disaster this year and has now allowed at least four runsin five of his 11 starts. Chris Archer: He’s 4-3 with a 3.74 ERA. Archer comes in off a no-decision against the Rangers on Wednesday, allowing four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings. Note that Archer owns a decent 1.18 WHIP. The bottom line: Quintana is 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA on the road. Archer is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA at home. Note that Chicago is just 11-18 (-3.7 units) this year after a loss, while Tampa Bay is 17-12 (+6.1 units) in the same position (also a perfect 4-0, +4.1 units after three or more consecutive losses.) Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-04-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -171 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Kyle Hendricks and the defending champion Cubbies could/should easily be much largers ones in this particular matchup. Michael Wacha: He’s 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA. Most recently Wacha gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over just three innings in a loss to LA on Tuesday. Wacha has regressed as the season has progressed, as he’s now allowed nine earned runs over seven innings spanning two starts. Hendricks: He’s 4-3 with a 3.75 ERA. Hendricks most recently allowed five runs while walking none and striking out five over five innings in a 5-2 loss to the Padres on Monday. The majority of the damage came off a grand slame by Hunter Renfroe. Let’s not focus too long on one bad outing though, previous to that dud Hendricks had allowed two runs or fewer in six straight starts. The bottom line: Note that Wacha is 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA on the road, while Hendricks is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA at home. Also note that St. Louis is just 16-19 (-5.6 units) in all night games this year, while Chicago is 2-1 in its last three following a victory. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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06-04-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. With their ace on the mound, we like the Toronto Blue Jays to bounce back from yesterday’s 7-0 defeat. Luis Severino: He’s 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA. Severino struck out eight and gave up one run over 6.1 innings in a win over the Orioles on Tuesday. Severino has been pretty dominant across the board, but in his two day-time appearances this year he’s posted a huge 11.57 ERA. Marcus Stroman: He’s 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA. Stroman made six starts in the month of May and he’d finish 4-0. Note that his 61.6 percent groundball rate is the second-best in the entire league. Also note that Stroman has been very good in all “day” contests, going 2-0 with a 3.05 ERA. The bottom line: Note that New York is just 9-12 (-3.4 units) this year on the road when the line is between +125 and -125, while Toronto is 8-4 (+3.4 units) at home when the money-line falls into the same price range. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-03-17 | Rays -110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. We lost with the Rays last night, but we expect Tampa to bounce back in this favorable matchup on the mound: Alex Cobb: He’s 4-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Cobb most recently gave up one run off six hits while walking three and striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins on Sunday. Note the Cobb is 3-1 with a respectable 3.67 ERA on the road this year. Sam Gaviglio: He’s 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA. Gaviglio most recently gave up five earned runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a victory over the Rockies on Monday. Gaviglio has been hit or miss this season and his spot in the rotation will be gone after this start with several starters returning from injury. The bottom line: Note that Tampa is 17-10 (+8.2 units) this year following a loss, while Seattle is just 19-22 (-2 units) this season against right-handed starters. This line could/should easily be much higher in our professional opinion, play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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06-03-17 | Dodgers -148 v. Brewers | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA Dodgers. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Rich Hill: He’s 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA. Hill most recently held St. Louis to one run over five innings while striking out four in the 5-1 victory. Hill had been rocked in his previous start, but for the most part he’s been pretty solid in his time this season. And note that he’s been at his best when on the road, 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA thus far. Matt Garza: He’s 2-2 with a 3.98 ERA. Garza most recently allowed four runs off seven hits while walking two and striking out four over 5.2 innings in a 4-2 loss to the Mets on Monday. Garza has now been lit up for ten runs over his last 11 innings of work. Garza has already served up six home runs in 40.2 innings of work and note that he owns an uninspiring 4.91 ERA at home this year. The bottom line: Note that LA is 11-5 (+4.2 units) this year in all day games, while Milwaukee is just 14-16 (-1.4 units) in all home games. We like LA to build off yesterday’s extra innings victory in this favorable matchup. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-02-17 | Rays -110 v. Mariners | 4-12 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Tampa Bay Rays. We think Jake Odorizzi and the Rays aren’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. Odorizzi: He’s 3-2 with a 3.14 ERA. Odorizzi most recently gave up two runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Twins on Saturday. Odorizzi wasn’t perfect, needing 118 pitches to get through the outing, but regardless of that, he’s still given up two or fewer earned runs in all but two starts this year. Christian Bergman: He’s 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bergman redeemed himself against the Red Sox last time out by holding them scoreless over seven innings after getting shelled for ten runs off 14 hits over four frames against the Nationals. Bergman’s peripheral’s are poor with a 4.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 27 innings. Note that he’s 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in all “night” games thus far. The bottom line: Note that Tampa Bay is 22-16 (+6.4 units) against right-handed starters, while Seattle is just 18-22 (-3.1 units) in the same position. Play on TAMPA BAY. AAA Sports |
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06-02-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -146 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. Enough is enough for the defending champs. They’re at .500 and have been swept in back-to-back series. Lance Lynn: He’s 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA. Lynn most recently was shelled for four runs off six hits and one walk while striking out three in an 8-4 loss to Colorado on Sunday. Lynn for the most part has been excellenct this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness, it’s been his play in all “day” games, 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA thus far. John Lackey: He’s 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA. Lackey is also coming off an outing to forget in which he was tagged for five runs over five innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lackey has now given up 13 runs over his last 15.1 innings of work. The bottom line: Note that St. Louis is already just 2-4 (-1.9 units) this season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Chicago is already 7-3 (+3.4 units) when playing with a day off. Desperation breeds motivation, lay the price with confidence. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -129 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Zack Greinke is coming off a dud of a performance, but previous to that he’d been dominant, while Marlins’ starter Jeff Locke will make his season debut tonight after a successful rehab. As good as Locke was in Double-A, we think Greinke is the correct call in this matchup. Greinke: He’s 6-3 with a 3.24 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs over six innings in a 6-1 loss to the Brewers on Saturday. Previous to that he’d won four in a row. Note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all night contests this season. Locke: He posted a 1.77 ERA and 22:2 K:BB across seven starts in A and Double-A during his rehab. The bottom line: This is a favorable pitchers park to throw in. Greinke ran into a buzzsaw in the Brewers in his last game, but we expect him to settle right back down and get back on track. Locke has some upside, but this is clearly a tough matchup right out of the gate. All things considered, we feel this is a great price. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-31-17 | Rockies v. Mariners -153 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners. Seattle took both games of this interleague home-and-home set in Colorado and we’re expecting the M’s to find a way to deliver the goods in front of the home town crowd this evening as well. Atonio Senzatela: He’s 7-1 with a 3.19 ERA. The rookie has looked great early and comes in off a dominant outing against the scuffling Cardinals, going eight scoreless while striking out three in the 10-0 victory on Friday. Senzatela’s 4.55 XFIP and 4.54 FIP both point to some regression in the very near future though. James Paxton: He returns from the DL at 3-0 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 45 strikeout over 37.2 innings of work. The bottom line: Note that Colorado is already just 2-3 (-1.4 units) after allowing ten runs or more this year, while Seattle is 13-9 (+2.6 units) in all home games this season. Lay the price, play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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05-31-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals -131 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. We like the Cards to bounce back after yesterday’s 9-4 defeat. Hyun-Jin Ryu: He’s 2-5 with a 4.75 ERA. Ryu is making a spot start for Alex Wood who is now on the DL. Note that he’s 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA on the road this year. Carlos Martinez: He’s 3-4 with a 3.32 ERA. Martinez most recently gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out nine over 7.1 innings in a 10-0 loss to Colorado on Friday. Martinez has now posted six straight quality starts and note that he’s been particulary sharp at home by going 2-1 with a 2.40 ERA. The bottom line: Note that the Cards are already 4-1 (+3.4 units) this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. In our opinion, Martinez should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Advantage home side, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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05-31-17 | Brewers v. Mets -177 | 7-1 | Loss | -177 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Mets. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Jacob DeGrom and the home side could/should easily be much bigger ones. Junior Guerra: He’s 0-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Guerra has yet to start a game on the road this year. DeGrom: He’s 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA. DeGrom most recently gave up one run off six hits and one walk while striking out ten over 8.1 innings in a win over the Pirates on Friday. DeGrom has looked great over his last two starts and has posted 37 K’s over his last 27.1 innings of work (note that he’s been particularly sharp at home this year with a tiny 2.19 ERA). The bottom line: Note that Milwaukee is just 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four following a loss, while New York is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three following a victory. Play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-17 | Red Sox -171 v. White Sox | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG TIGER on the Boston Red Sox. This is a mismath of titanic proportions as Chris Sale will look to help his team bounce back after yesterday’s defeat: Sale: He’s 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA. Sale most recently gave up four runs over 7.1 innings in a victory over the Rangers on Wednesday. Sale leads the league in strikeouts by a considerable margin (101) and has been dominant on the road with a 2.51 ERA thus far. Jose Quintana: He’s 2-6 with a 4.82 ERA. Quintana most recently gave up eight runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in an 8-6 loss to Arizona on Wednesday. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 14-8 (+3.2 units) this year following a loss. We look for Sale to easily get the better of his “gas can” counterpart, lay the price play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-30-17 | Astros v. Twins -123 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -123 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Minnesota Twins. We had a play on the Twins yesterday and after the first five innings we looked pretty good, but things came apart quickly for Minnesota as it would eventually succumb 16-8. The Astros are red hot, but we think the Twins finally cool them off and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Mike Fiers: He’s 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA. Fiers has struggled mightily this year, having already giving up 18 home runs spanning nine starts. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.70 ERA in all “night” games this season. Jose Berrios: He’s 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA. Berrios gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a win over Baltimore on Wednesday. All three runs were of the solo long-ball variety, so Berrios is lucky that he didn’t get shelled. Previous to that though, he’d given up just two over 39.2 innings at Triple-A Rochester. To go along with his sparkling 1.66 ERA, he also owns a tiny 0.55 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 over his three starts. The bottom line: We think the Astros finally come out flat here after last night’s epic explosion and we fully expect Berrios to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +103 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the St. Louis Cardinals. We like St. Louis to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat. Kenta Maeda: 4-2, 5.08 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings on Thursday, walking two and striking out four in a victory over these very Cardinals last Thursday. Maeda looked decent in his first start back from the DL, but note that he’s struggled on the road this year by going 1-1 with a 6.60 ERA. Michael Wacha: He’s 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA. Wacha went six scoreless against San Francisco on Saturday, scattering four hits and striking out five. Wacha has now worked at leats six frames in every outing this year and note that he’s been particularly effective at home by going 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA. The bottom line: Note that LA is just 11-12 (-4.8 units) on the raod this year, while St. Louis is 93-69 (+13.6 units) in its last 162 following a loss. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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05-29-17 | Cubs -187 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -187 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 6* ASSASSIN on the Chicago Cubs. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Kyle Hendricks and the defending champs could easily be much larger ones. Hendricks: He’s 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA. Hendricks most recently went seven innings against San Francisco on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs off five hits and no walks while also striking out five. Hendricks has now given up just two earned runs or less in six straight starts. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by going 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA. Jarred Cosart: He’s 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Cosart took a come-backer off his right foot in his last start on Wednesday and was pulled after 2.2 innings. In that span he was shelled for four runs off four hits and four walks. Cosart has been given the green light to go today. The bottom line: We think Hendricks is hitting his stride and we like the hard-throwing right-hander to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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05-29-17 | Mariners v. Rockies -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Colorado Rockies. Tyler Chatwood has been dominant on the road and a “gas can” at home this year (and throughout his career.) But Coors Field is tough for all pitchers and we think that despite his struggles in front of the home town crowd, he still has a sizeable advantage over his young counterpart today: Sam Gaviglio: He’s 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA. Gaviglio most recently was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks over six innings in a 5-1 loss to Washington on Wednesday, managing just a single K. Chatwood: He’s 4-6 with a 4.50 ERA. Chatwood most recently gave up just one hit to go along with eight K’s over seven scoreless innings in Philadelphia on Wednesday. The bottom line: Seattle is just 8-20 (-11 units) on the road this year. Colorado is 14-11 (+3.5 units) at home. This line could/should easily be a lot higher. The value swings to the home side, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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05-29-17 | Astros v. Twins -115 | Top | 16-8 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Minnesota Twins. It looked like Houston was in danger of falling to the Orioles for a second yesterday (we had a play on Baltimore unfortunately), but the hottest team in baseball turned it on in the middle frames and pulled away for the 8-4 victory. We played against the Twins last night, as Tampa was able to capture an 8-6 victory in Minnesota in 15 innings. If this were closer to the end of the season, we’d say that fatigue could be a factor this afternoon for the Twins. But we’re barely one month into the campaign, so that won’t be the case whatsoever this afternoon (in fact, the extra playing time is likely a benefit at this point of the season). We like the red hot Irvin Santana and the home side to bounce back and cool off the red hot Astros this afternoon. Brad Peacock: He’s 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA. Peacock struck out eight batters over just 4.1 innings in his lone start this year. Santana: He’s 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA. Santana most recently allowed just two hits and two walks in a 2-0 complete game shutout of Baltimore on Tuesday, going on to finish with six K’s. The bottom line: This will be a big test for Peacock. Santana has been dominant this year and we think he’s getting little respect in this matchup, as Peacock’s sample size is too small. Value swings to the home side here, play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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05-28-17 | Rays -109 v. Twins | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. We like Tampa to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat: Alex Cobb: He’s 4-4 with a 3.82 ERA. Cobb most recently allowed four runs off seven hits and three walks over 7.1 innings in a loss to the Angels on Tuesday, also striking out five. It was a bit of a sub-par start, but note that it was the first time in over a month that he’d allowed more than three runs in a game. Note that Cobb has been effective on the road as well this year by going 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA. Kyle Gibson: He’s 1-4 with an 8.62 ERA. Gibson most recently allowed six runs off seven hits and four walks over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Orioles on Monday. Gibson has already been sent down to the minors this year because of ineptitude and in his first outing back he was a disaster. Note that he’s been particularly feeble at home as well, going 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA. The bottom line: We like Cobb to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and in our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on TAMPA. AAA Sports |
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