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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON All of a sudden, the Red Sox have stopped hitting and they now find themselves facing elimination heading into Game 6 at Houston. The last two games, Boston has managed only eight hits and three runs, a far cry from the first two games of this ALCS when they had 32 hits and 25 runs. In fact, there was a six-game stretch in these playoffs where the Red Sox scored 51 times and collected 79 hits! We think they get back to that tonight with their season on the line. They’ll be facing Luis Garcia again. Garcia could only record three outs when he started Game 2 and served up one of the three Red Sox grand slams in this series. Boston will give the baseball to Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 10-1 team start record since August 23rd and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Eovaldi’s recent numbers are a far cry from those of Garcia, who has an 0-3 TSR, 13.49 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. Yes, we remember that Eovaldi was one of the culprits in letting Game 4 get away (which really turned this series). But that was a unique relief situation and we expect him to resume his string of excellent starts. Over the last month-plus, the Red Sox have only one losing streak of more than two games. That won’t happen here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -208 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -208 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS Momentum has definitely shifted in the NLCS as the Dodgers were five outs away from being in an 0-3 hole to the Braves. Instead, thanks mainly to Cody Bellinger, they came back last night and won Game 3 by a score of 6-5. They’ve had a two-run lead in every game in this series and it’s difficult for us not to view them as the superior ballclub. Atlanta, who also took the first two games of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, now has to be a bit “shell-shocked” and feeling an all-too familiar sense of “deja vu.” We love the Dodgers with Julio Urias starting in Game 4. Urias was baseball’s only 20-game winner in the regular season. He comes into tonight with a 21-3 overall record. The Dodgers are 27-6 in all of his starts this season and have won the last 12! While Urias, when used as a reliever in Game 2, could not protect a lead in Game 2, he’ll be a lot better tonight in his normal role of starter. Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game” tonight, meaning we don’t officially know who is going to start. Nor do we care. The Dodgers are the better team and seized momentum last night. The Braves are 0-6 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 2019, four of those losses coming this season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -171 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Braves had “their man” (Max Fried) on the hill for Game 1. It resulted in a 3-2 win as the home team walked off in the bottom of the ninth, thanks to an Austin Riley base hit. But now it’s the Dodgers’ turn to go with their best pitcher and that obviously means Max Scherzer. The only Scherzer start that Los Angeles has lost was Game 3 of the NLDS. He still went seven innings, had 10 strikeouts and gave up only one run on three hits. It was a 1-0 loss. But Scherzer got his revenge on the Giants when he retired the side, with two strikeouts, in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. Having now made 13 starts for the Dodgers, Scherzer has allowed 0 or 1 run in 10 of them. After a loss is when you really want to back LA. They are 16-2 after their last 18 losses. Going all the way back to the end of July, there have been only two times where the Dodgers lost two in a row. One was late July, the other was early September. We haven’t mentioned the fact Atlanta is starting Ian Anderson in Game 2 because it’s pretty inconsequential to this play. You’ve got to back the Dodgers tonight. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA The two starting pitchers for Game 5 have proven themselves to be very difficult to beat. The Giants’ Logan Webb has not lost a game since May 11th. The team is 19-2 his past 21 starts. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is 12-0 since June 21st with the team’s record being 16-2 in his past 18 starts. Both pitched well in their previous start in this LDS. So something will have to give. Might it be the bullpens that decide this game? The Dodgers’ pen seems to be fresher at this point of the series. Manager Dave Roberts has only had to make the call to the bullpen seven times in the last two games. The Giants have called upon 10 different relievers over the same time. While Los Angeles has been shutout twice in the series, they’ve still scored seven more runs than San Francisco over the course of the four games. The Giants have only scored nine runs the entire series and only five in the last three games. At the end of the day, we just think that the Dodgers are the better of the two teams. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox -110 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were able to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win on Monday. Then their season was extended another day when Mother Nature came calling on Tuesday. The rainout pushed Game 4 back to today and we think the situation favors the home team. Certainly, there’s no denying that the White Sox prefer to be at home. They are 54-28 at Guaranteed Rate Field as opposed to 40-43 on the road. It will be Carlos Rodon starting today’s game for the home team. Rodon was probably Chicago’s best starter in the regular season. He has battled injuries, including a sore arm down the stretch. But he threw five shutout innings in his last regular season start and brings a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into the postseason. Houston is going with Lance McCullers Jr, who won Game 1. This is a change from Jose Urquidy, who was set to go yesterday before the rain said no. With the White Sox accusing the Astros of stealing signs, there’s some real “bad blood” between the two teams. But we think it boils down to the White Sox homefield advantage and being faced with elimination. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta was able to even this series up with a 3-0 win in Game 2. We did not have a play on that game. We did cash Milwaukee in Game 1 though. Believe it or not, we are even more apt to take the Brewers now that the series has moved to Atlanta. The Brewers were 50-31 on the road in the regular season. That’s a better record than they have at home. Not only does the team score more when it’s on the road, but they also give up far less runs. No team allowed fewer runs on the road than Milwaukee did during the regular season. They gave up just 3.4 per game while scoring 4.8 themselves. Freddy Peralta will be the starter for Game 3. He comes in with a 18-9 TSR, 2.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peralta faced the Braves one time this year and he kept them scoreless for six innings. He allowed only two hits in the outing. The Braves are countering with Ian Anderson, who is 4-0 in his last six starts. But there were two different starts where Anderson allowed four runs and he’s allowed seven home runs in the last five starts. The Braves are only 42-38 at home. Throw in the fact the Brewers are 41-25 in day games and we really like the road team in this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers -116 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS Without question, the most marquee series in the Divisional Round is between the Dodgers and Giants. Both teams won 106 regular season games with San Francisco finishing one ahead for first place in the NL West. The Giants have the home field advantage and have been an incredible story throughout 2021, eclipsing their projected win total by 34! But the Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs and still the favorite. They had baseball’s best run differential in the regular season. As for which team comes into the playoffs hotter, the Dodgers have won eight straight (including the Wild Card Game) and 18 of 21. The Giants, not to be outdone, are 20-5 in their L25 games. We simply feel the Dodgers are the team to beat. Does it not speak volumes that they come into Game 1 as slight favorites? Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise at all, considering the Dodgers have been underdogs in only two games all year. Walker Buehler is 16-4 with the third best ERA in baseball and is 7-1 all-time vs. the Giants. He won twice this year here in San Francisco. Logan Webb hasn’t lost since May 5th for the Giants, but is a lot less proven compared to Buehler on this stage. Since we like the Dodgers in this series, it only makes sense to take them in Game 1. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -138 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The champions of the NL East and NL Central meet in this League Division Series as Atlanta takes on Milwaukee. It was a 3-3 split of the six regular season meetings. Each series saw the road team win twice. By virtue of having the better overall record, the Brewers have home field advantage. The Braves weren’t even a .500 team until August. Something else the home team has for Game 1 Friday night is Corbin Burnes. He had as good a year as any starter in the majors. Burnes finished the regular season with a 2.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Since May 31st, the Brewers are 17-3 in his starts. So this is a tall mountain to climb for an Atlanta team that is just one game over .500 when not facing a division opponent. What’s so significant about that record is the fact no one else in the NL East finished with more than 82 wins. It was definitely the weakest of the six divisions this season. The afternoon start on Friday would seem to favor Milwaukee as they are 40-24 in day games. Look for Burnes to outpitch Charlie Morton in Game 1. Atlanta’s typically aggressive hitters will struggle against someone who doesn’t issue many walks. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -117 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES For most of Sunday, it looked as if one or both of these AL East teams would be forced into playing a 163rd regular season game. With Toronto already having won, a loss by either the Yankees or Red Sox would have put them into a tie with the Blue Jays for the Wild Card. As it turns out, both won by scoring the go ahead runs in the ninth inning. So we get the two long standing rivals representing the American League in the Wild Card Game. We like the Yankees to advance. They have been hotter down the stretch and are 6-0 their last six games vs. Boston. New York swept them at home in mid-August, then at Fenway the weekend before last. Over the second half of the season, the Yankees went 46-26. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have basically been a .500 team since the All Star Break. Gerrit Cole was a pretty obvious choice to start this game, despite a shaky last few starts. Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi also had a shaky finish to the regular season. Looking at two starters’ numbers, Cole’s are superior overall. He has a lower ERA and WHIP on the road than Eovaldi does at home. The Yankees have won their last eight games following an off-day. The Red Sox are just 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-03-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. LOUIS The Cardinals are going to the playoffs. They don’t yet know who they’ll be facing in the Wild Card Game, only that it will be on the road against a 100+ win team. It comes down to what happens in the NL West between the Giants and Dodgers, who could be forced into Game 163 tomorrow if they are tied at the end of Sunday. That would probably be a dream scenario for St. Louis, who will be a big underdog in Wednesday’s NL Wild Card, no matter who they play. The good thing for Sunday is they are facing the Cubs, a 70-91 team playing out the string. Though the Cubs came from behind to stun the Cardinals last night, expect the home team to make it 20 wins in their last 22 games here. What a run it has been in the Gateway City. In addition to this incredible 19-2 run that they are, they’d beaten the Cubs seven straight times going into yesterday. No one disputes who the better team is here. The Cards send out Jake Woodford, who had a 1.90 ERA in September. The Cubs go with Alec Mills, who has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts and has a 10.53 ERA in the previous three. St. Louis will want to go into Wednesday’s Wild Card Game with some momentum, not to mention win the final regular season game at home. Don’t overthink this one. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the METS These teams played a doubleheader on Tuesday. The Mets won both games, ending a five-game skid. The Marlins have now lost seven in a row. Both teams shuffled around their rotations for yesterday’s games. For Miami, it didn’t really matter as their offense has been putrid during this losing streak. They’ve managed only 14 runs in the last seven games and five of the runs came in one game. After managing just three runs in 16 innings of baseball yesterday (2nd game went to extras), we don’t see them turning things around at the plate here. It’s not been a good second half for Mets starter Taijuan Walker, but this is a matchup where he pretty clearly should excel. Walker’s numbers at home remain solid. The Mets are also 21-8 as a favorite of -125 to -175 at Citi Field. Visiting teams have averaged only 3.6 runs/game at this park in 2021 and the Marlins offense has struggled all season on the road. Elieser Hernandez isn’t good enough to turn around Miami’s fortunes as he allowed three home runs in his last start and has a 1.81 WHIP in his previous three. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about their playoff chances right about now. They won for the seventh straight time last night, holding the Blue Jays to three hits in a 7-2 final. That gives them a two game lead over Boston, three game lead over Seattle and 3.5 game lead over Toronto, who is now really up against it and will face Gerrit Cole tonight. Beating Cole will not be easy. But Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starter for Wednesday, has already beaten the Yankees once this month. In his only start against them here in 2021, Berrios held New York to two runs. Over his last seven starts, Berrios has a 0.98 WHIP and he’s looking to make tonight his seventh straight quality start. He has a very comparable team start record (16-15) to Cole (16-13) this year. Toronto has a winning record against the Yankees this year (10-7). Five Yankee relievers had to work 6.3 innings last night because of an injury to Jameson Taillon. So that could be an issue when Cole has to leave the game tonight. Toronto needs this game badly and we feel Berrios can outpitch Cole. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO This is going to be a critical game and series between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Along with Boston, we’ve got three AL East teams separated by just two games in the race for the Wild Card. It’s a race the Yankees currently lead after sweeping the Red Sox this past weekend. Toronto is still a game behind Boston for the second Wild Card. They are hoping for a repeat of the last time they faced the Yankees. It was a four-game series at Yankees Stadium earlier this month and the Jays swept, outscoring the Yanks 25-8. Now they get them at home. This is New York’s first trip to Canada since 2019 because of COVID-19. The number of fans allowed at Rogers Centre has been upped to 30,000 (per game) for this series, so expect a strong home field advantage. As much as everyone talks about the Yankees, Toronto has been exceptional over the last month, winning 21 of their last 29 games. They will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts vs. the Yankees this year. Ryu hasn’t started in 10 days, but we are confident. For New York, Jameson Taillon is also coming off the IL, although his stint was longer than Ryu’s. His last start was against Toronto and the Yankees lost that game 8-0. Though the Yankees may be leading the Wild Card race, it’s the Blue Jays who have a vastly superior run differential. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-28-21 | Marlins v. Mets -161 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS (GAME 1) NL East rivals Miami and New York are resigned to “playing out the string” at this point. For the Marlins, they’ve known this fate for some time. They’ve spent the majority of the season in last place and carry a 64-91 record into this series with a five-game losing streak. Over the weekend, they were swept by Sunshine State rival Tampa Bay. The Mets are also on a five-game losing streak. For them, the last two months have been a nightmare as they’ve fallen from first place in the division to 73-82 overall. They were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee. Somebody is going to snap their five-game losing streak in the first game of today’s doubleheader and we believe it will be the Mets. They are at home where their pitching staff allows only 3.6 runs/game and a .220 batting average. Marcus Stroman will start this first game. He has a 2.13 in three career starts against Miami. The Marlins only score 3.8 runs/game on the road. So look for their struggles at the plate to continue. They put up only five runs total in the three games at Tampa Bay. Trevor Rogers has not won a decision for them since June 10th. That was a long time ago. He’s 0-5 in his last 11 starts and has seen a drastic rise in his ERA and WHIP. Play on NY METS (GAME 1) AAA |
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09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Don’t let the fact that the Rockies are 3-10 their last 13 home games fool you. All of those home games were played against three of the top four teams in the National League with nine of them against the Dodgers and Giants. Now they are going to host Washington, a team they took two of three from on the road last week. The Rockies are 46-32 at Coors Field this year. Factor out games vs. the Dodgers and Giants and that record improves to 41-18. The Nationals are not a threat. They are in last place in the NL East after losing three of four to the Reds over the weekend. Their record after a loss is 34-57 and they are just 29-49 on the road. German Marquez will start Monday’s game for Colorado. He’s one of the few to have mastered the usually unfavorable conditions at Coors. He has a 14-3 team start record at home for the 2021 season. It helps that the Rockies’ offense puts up an average of 5.6 runs/game at home as well. But Marquez has good numbers here, including a 3.49 ERA. Josiah Gray does not have good numbers for Washington as he’s allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-27-21 | White Sox -148 v. Tigers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Detroit has beaten Chicago four straight times going back to early July. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you look at the two teams’ respective records for the season. The Tigers are 75-80 and seem headed for what would be a sixth straight losing season. The White Sox are 88-68 and clinched the AL Central on Thursday. Before losing the last four games to the Tigers, Chicago was 9-2 against them this year. Coming off a 5-2 win in Cleveland on Sunday, we expect the White Sox to gain a measure of revenge in this make-up game. The Tigers lost two of three to Kansas City over the weekend and will be without one of their hottest hitters, Victor Reyes, on Monday. That makes the job easier for Chicago’s Dallas Keuchel, who is getting the start this afternoon. Keuchel has given up just two runs each of his last two starts. Matt Manning will start for the Tigers. He has a 5.87 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox. Despite pitching better recently, Manning has a higher ERA and WHIP compared to Keuchel this year. The White Sox are definitely the superior team and we can’t see them losing again to Detroit. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-26-21 | Blue Jays -190 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto finally got back in the win column Saturday, beating Minnesota 6-1. It was a game the Blue Jays “had” to have. With the Yankees beating the Red Sox again, Toronto is now two games behind both teams for the Wild Card. A win Sunday would get the Blue Jays within one game of tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox loser. We like Toronto to handle its business as they send Alek Manoah to the mound. The team has won the last six games Manoah has started. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his last 16 starts. The previous two, both against Tampa Bay, saw Manoah pitch very effectively. He gave up just two runs on six hits over 14 innings. The Twins are not playoff contenders and their starter Griffin Jax has a poor 6.52 ERA this season. Jax has given up 14 home runs in his previous nine starts. He’s allowed at least one HR in all nine. That would seem to be a problem as Toronto hit three homers yesterday to increase its MLB-leading total to 246. The Blue Jays really are an excellent team that deserves to make the postseason. They have a 39-18 record in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Giants -139 v. Rockies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF San Francisco beat Colorado 7-2 last night, becoming the first team to 100 wins this season. The Giants are 16-4 in their L20 games but cannot afford to let up now as their division lead over the Dodgers is still just one game. Playing Colorado helps the cause. The Giants are 13-4 vs. the Rockies this year and have won the previous five meetings. The Rockies are a “tougher out” at home, but have now dropped four of five overall. DeSclafani will pitch for the Giants today. He is looking for a third straight quality start and eighth straight start with three runs or less allowed. DeSclafani has started four times against Colorado this year. The Giants are 4-0 in those games with DeSclafani giving up just five runs in 24.3 innings. The Rockies’ Jon Gray hasn’t been as fortunate when facing the Giants. He has a 1-2 TSR against them this year, one of the losses coming against DeSclafani earlier this year. The Rockies’ home field edge is dissipating as they’ve lost seven of their last eight games at Coors Field. The Giants have the most road wins in MLB (51). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland (82-70) is now behind Seattle (83-69) in the Wild Card race after losing the first three games of this series. It’s now eight straight losses to the Mariners going back to late July. But, in a must win spot Thursday, we like the A’s to bounce back. They welcome back Chris Bassitt, the team leader in wins, to the mound this afternoon. Bassitt was leading the entire American League in wins when he took a line drive off his face last month. Five weeks later he’s back and we’ve got reason to believe he’ll pitch well here. Seattle doesn’t hit well, even though they’ve been winning in this series. Bassitt wasn’t just leading the American League in wins at the time of his injury, he was also first in innings pitched and starts. So he’d been the real workhorse of this staff. The A’s are below .500 since losing him. But he’s back now. Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has not won since August 3rd, which was nine starts ago. His last three starts have been exceptionally poor with 10 runs allowed in just 9.6 innings. Can’t see the A’s being swept in a four-game series at home. Despite their winning record, the Mariners have been outscored by 54 runs in 2021. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -116 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The St. Louis Cardinals have won 10 straight games, putting them in position to make the playoffs as the NL’s second Wild Card. The race for this second Wild Card spot has been wide open all year long as it seems no team “wants it.” (Given that whomever gets the spot must face either the Dodgers or Giants on the road, it’s likely to be a “one and done” postseason venture). But the Cardinals are clearly the hot team right now. But looking at their season as a whole, the Redbirds haven’t really been all that impressive. Coming to Milwaukee and taking the first two games from the division-leading Brewers is impressive, but we see the win streak coming to an end tonight. Now with a four-game lead over the rest of the Wild Card chasers, we could see the Cards start to “let up” in the coming days. The Brewers are a great team, one that has allowed fewer runs than all teams besides the Giants and Dodgers. Today’s pitching matchup of Miles Mikolas vs. Brett Anderson seems like a wash on paper. But Mikolas has only started twice on the road this year and his ERA is 8.59. His WHIP is 2.05. Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and would like to wrap the division up as soon as possible. If they win the next two games, then the pennant is theirs. We really like the fact that the Brewers are 38-18 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-21-21 | White Sox -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS The White Sox lost 4-3 to the Tigers last night after blowing a three-run lead. But they did see their magic number to clinch the AL Central drop to two as Cleveland was swept in a doubleheader. It is possible for Chicago to win the division on Tuesday, but that will first require them handling their business this afternoon. (Would then need an Indians loss as well). Last night saw Chicago strike first with three runs in the third inning. But Detroit immediately answered with three runs of their own in the bottom half of the inning. The game was decided in the eighth when Harold Castro’s two-out single scored Robbie Grossman, who had been hit by a pitch and stole second. The start time for today’s game was moved up due to the threat of rain tonight in Detroit. We believe the quick turnaround benefits the road team as they should be eager to take the field and atone for last night’s defeat. The White Sox are 43-23 off a loss this year. They’re hoping for Dallas Keuchel to deliver a start similar to the one he gave his last time on the mound. Though he did not get the win, Keuchel allowed just two runs in six innings. Detroit has won its last three games against Chicago and the last three overall. But they are batting just .174 over the last week and Tyler Alexander has made it through six innings only one time in 12 starts. The Tigers’ bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, so yesterday was a much better showing than usual from them. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-20-21 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto (84-65) continues its quest to lock down a playoff berth with a visit to Tampa Bay (92-58) to start the week. This is the same Rays team that the Blue Jays took two of three from last week. That was at home, however the Jays have a pretty good road record as well (41-33). They’ve outscored teams by 1.3 runs/game on the road and that does not include the “home” games in Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY when they were not allowed to cross the border because to COVID-19. So technically, no team has won more games outside of their actual home park than Toronto. They are also 15-3 in September. While they won’t be able to catch the Rays for first place in the division, the Blue Jays have moved into the second Wild Card. They are two back of Boston in the win column. Passing the Red Sox would mean the Wild Card Game would take place in Toronto. The Blue Jays have to keep winning as the Yankees are just 1.5 games behind them and Oakland is two back. Tampa Bay is just 8-10 this month as they’ve hit a bit of a malaise. Sandwiched around the series loss to Toronto last week were two series against the Tigers and they lost four of the seven games to them, a below .500 team. Having top pitching prospect Shane Baz make his big league debut is cause for excitement, but this is a tough spot for Baz starting against Robbie Ray, who is looking to win the AL Cy Young. Ray has a 1.85 ERA in five previous starts vs. Tampa this year. The last time he lost was July 21st. In his last seven starts, Ray has a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-18-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto lost last night to Minnesota, 7-3. They’ve lost four in a row to the Twins going back to 2019. All four losses took place at home and they were outscored 27-4. However, last night aside, this Blue Jays team has been red hot. Winners of 16 of 20, they’ve gotten themselves into the thick of the Wild Card race. But they can’t let up now. Friday’s results leave them a game back of Boston and a half-game back of New York. Those are the teams currently occupying the two Wild Card spots. It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-65), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. But they were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and that is when they started to surge. Now only four teams have a better run differential on the season than the Jays. Minnesota (65-83) has been a big disappointment in 2021, down 27.5 units and in last place in the AL Central Division. They came into this series off two straight losses where they had only three hits in both games. Steven Matz is the starter today for Toronto. He wasn’t at his best on Sunday when he gave up five runs. But he didn’t need to be at his best as the team won that game 22-7. Before that, Matz had given up only six runs in his previous five starts. Though they beat one last night (Ryu), the Twins are still only 17-33 vs. lefties this year. Ober will start for Minnesota Saturday. He’s not made it past 4.3 innings in either of his last two starts. The Twins will not hit four home runs again like they did Friday. Toronto is 37-17 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -159 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Division leaders clash in San Francisco tonight as the 76-68 Braves take on the 95-52 Giants. It just so happens that both teams are off two straight losses. Atlanta missed out on a chance to end their losing streak when yesterday’s scheduled game vs. Colorado got rained out. San Francisco lost 7-4 to the Padres. But we like the Giants for several reasons tonight. One is that they’ve gotten the job done over a much longer stretch than has Atlanta. The Giants not only have the best won-loss record in MLB, they are also #1 in the betting world, up 38.0 units for the year. The Braves were below .500 entering August. They’ve taken advantage of a weak division. San Francisco has had to fend off the Dodgers, who have the second best record in the majors, all season long. Logan Webb is responsible for a significant chunk of the Giants’ profitability as he has an 18-4 team start record and is +15.6 units. The Giants have won his last seven starts overall and are 9-0 when he takes the mound at home. Webb has 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in those last seven starts and 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Because of the rain, Atlanta pushed back Ian Anderson’s start to today. The right-hander beat the Giants back on August 29th, however that was at home. Anderson has since given up three homers, six runs and 10 hits in eight innings. The Giants had won nine in a row before losing each of the last two days. We’ve got to back them with Webb pitching on Friday. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-17-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on StL You’d have to go all the way back to May to find the last time the Padres (76-70) and Cardinals (76-69) hooked up. As you’ve seen by now, our 2021 Game of the Year took place in that series. It was in the middle of the three-game set and San Diego won 13-3, making us very happy. The Padres would go on to sweep that series, which was the start of a nine-game win streak. On June 25th, the team was 46-32 and feeling pretty good about itself. But things have changed. San Diego’s been a sub-.500 team these last three months and now trails the Cardinals - by a half game - for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. St. Louis is the hot team now as they’ve won seven of eight and five straight. They just swept the Mets in New York and had Thursday off. San Diego was in San Francisco yesterday. While they did win 7-4, this is just the third time in the last month they have won two straight games. It’s been more than a month since they won three straight. What makes this such a great spot to fade the Padres isn’t just revenge or recent form, but also they are being forced to start the recently signed Vince Velasquez due to the starting rotation being decimated by injuries. Velasquez was dropped by the Phillies in July after he allowed 11 runs over two terrible starts that spanned only 4.3 innings. Miles Mikolas is still working his way back from injury for St. Louis, but due to the spot being so favorable for the Cardinals we’ll look past his own recent struggles on the mound. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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09-14-21 | Cardinals v. Mets -164 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -164 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS The Mets are looking to rebound from a 7-0 loss Monday. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 5.5 games back of the division lead in the NL East. Most have already forgotten, but the Mets did lead the division for most of this season. They went cold in August at the same time the Braves got hot. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now as they need wins in a hurry. Marcus Strowman has been their most consistent starter (since Jacob deGrom went down) and will start tonight’s game vs. a St. Louis team that - prior to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game - hadn’t been doing a ton of scoring recently. The Cardinals have won the last two games in shutout fashion, but also have scored two runs or less in six of the last 10 games. Having won three straight, they are a ½ game back of the Wild Card now, but they’ve still got a negative run differential on the year. The Mets actually have a slightly better RD than the Cardinals (-10 vs. -13). We’re skeptics on St. Louis tonight as they have Jake Woodford set to go. He’s simply not as good as Stroman. The Cardinals can’t count on getting a start like the one they got from Adam Wainwright last night. If the Mets can swing the bats like they did vs. the Yankees (averaged eight runs/game in three game series) and Strowman delivers his usual solid start, then this will be an easy win for the home team. That’s what we see happening here. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* on NEW YORK There’s no time for the Yankees to stew over Sunday night’s 7-6 loss to the Mets. That’s because it’s right back to work this afternoon in a make-up game vs. the Twins. The Yankees are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and have watched as Toronto has passed them in the Wild Card race. But it wasn’t too long ago that New York was riding high on a 13-game win streak. That win streak included three wins against the Twins. It could have been four, but the finale of that series was rained out. That’s what we are making up today and we think the Yankees will “complete the sweep” 22 days later. Minnesota lost two of three over the weekend in Kansas City. They are in last place and have been one of the five worst teams to bet on in 2021. Their record vs. the Yankees is pretty poor. Not only did they lose three times here last month, but they are 11-43 in their last 54 games at Yankees Stadium. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games against the Yankees overall. The Yankees need a win very badly today and should feel confident handing the ball to Luis Gil, who has a 1.42 ERA in his first four starts. For Minnesota, John Gant gave up four runs in 3.3 innings the last time he faced the Yankees. He’s off his best start since joining the Twins, but actually needed 96 pitches to get through five innings. That was his most pitches thrown in any of his four starts with his new team. Home team wins this one. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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09-10-21 | Rays -160 v. Tigers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Rays should dominate the Tigers? While Tampa Bay does come into the series off a 2-1 loss to Boston, that was on Thursday. They’d taken care of business the first two games at Fenway Park and still enjoy a very comfortable nine game lead in the American League East. They are 88-52 overall and have the top run difference in the whole AL. They are putting up almost six runs/game on the road, which is way ahead of everybody else. Their 43 road victories are the most in the AL and third most in all of MLB. We should probably mention that the Rays have won 13 of their last 17 games overall. Michael Wacha will start Friday’s opener. He’s off perhaps his best performance of 2021. It was one week ago that Wacha held Minnesota to just two runs and three hits (two solo home runs) over six innings. Tampa won the game 5-3. Detroit has a 66-75 record and just lost two of three to the Pirates. Matthew Boyd will be making just his third start since coming off the 60-day IL. He wasn’t sharp in his last start, giving up five runs in a loss at Cincinnati. These teams haven’t played this season, but the Rays are 7-2 the last nine meetings. They’ve also won five straight series openers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -162 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Chicago comes in at 80-58 on the season and leads the American League Central by 11 games. Clearly, they are playoff-bound. Oakland’s situation is a lot more dicey. They are 74-64 overall, placing them seven games back of Houston in the AL West and 3.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card. The A’s losing streak hit four in a row last night with a 6-3 setback against the White Sox. We view tonight as a real “must win” for the Athletics and they probably do as well. Things were looking great on August 12th when the A’s had won seven in a row and were coming off a 17-0 win against Cleveland. They were 67-48 at that time. Since then they have lost 16 of 23 games. While it may seem tough to want to go with Oakland today, just look at the pitching matchup we’ve got on tap. Frankie Montas has a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his last three starts for Oakland. Dallas Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP in his last three starts for Chicago. That seems like a pretty substantial edge towards the home team. We don’t see the White Sox scoring many runs tonight. They are 22 games above .500 at home. But going into yesterday, they had a losing record on the road. They are 15-38 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-08-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee beat Philadelphia 10-0 last night, a complete reversal from Monday’s game which was a Phillies’ 12-0 win. Yesterday also marked the first time in six tries that the Brewers were able to beat the Phillies. They’ll try and do it again Wednesday and the odds are certainly in their favor. One day after hitting six home runs, the Phillies couldn’t do anything against Eric Lauer. They had just five hits in last night’s game. This season, the Brewers are 12-3 immediately following a shutout win. They are 30 games over .500 overall and have a franchise record 11-game division lead. It’s on Freddy Peralta to get the job done here. While he’s struggled due to shoulder soreness, we believe he gets the job done Wednesday night. Philadelphia is just 2-5 after being blanked. This will be their ninth straight road game. They are below .500 on the road this year, which is why they are behind in the Wild Card race. They’re just four games over .500 for the year. Kyle Gibson was hammered in his most recent start, giving up eight runs. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-07-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS The Mets lost Monday. But they still won the five-game series with Washington. Their other loss came as part of a doubleheader Saturday. Yesterday saw them give up two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That leaves the Mets at .500 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Remember that they were leading the NL East for much of the season. Both losses over the weekend came about as a result of blown save opportunities, so really the Mets should be coming off a five-game sweep. They move onto Miami Tuesday to face the division’s other also-ran. Carlos Carrasco will start tonight’s opener. He has a 0.81 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. For his career against the Marlins, he is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in four starts. He was on the mound for last Thursday’s 4-3 win over them. The Mets won both games in that series. The Marlins are 6-14 playing with a day off, so no advantage there. This is a must win game and series for the Mets, so play accordingly. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels -127 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA Given how this series - and season - have gone for the Rangers, the money line is way too low for Monday’s matchup with the Angels. We realize Texas did win yesterday 7-3. But they are just 17-30 after a win this season. Last place in the AL West was always the reality for a team that’s 40 games below .500 and 17-51 on the road. Obviously, that road record is just atrocious. The current plan with the Rangers’ starting rotation seems to be just getting looks at the young arms. AJ Alexy had an admirable major league debut last week, but that was against a Colorado team that doesn’t hit well on the road outside of Coors Field. The Rockies are one of the few teams who can match the Rangers’ ineptitude on the road. The Angels average almost five full runs per game at home. Jaime Barria should do well in this start. His previous start resulted in a win over the Yankees, a game where the Angels were +185 on the money line. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-06-21 | Reds -141 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -141 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN The Reds look to put a disappointing stretch behind them when they visit Wrigley Field on Labor Day. Cincy no longer has the edge for the second Wild Card berth in the National League entering today’s action. They’ve fallen a half game behind San Diego, who is off Monday. The Reds just lost two of three at home to Detroit, an unacceptable result when you consider what they are playing for right now. Look for them to turn things around though against the Cubs, who had a horrible August. September has gone a bit differently on the North Side as the team is unbeaten. They’ve won six straight overall. But all six wins were against bad teams. The last four came in a weekend sweep of the terrible Pirates. Today’s pitching matchup greatly favors the Reds. Sonny Gray has a 1.00 ERA and 0.556 WHIP in his previous three starts. He’s won them all. Justin Steele is a rookie making just his fifth career start for the Cubs. The team has gone 1-3 in the first four, one of which was a 14-5 loss to the Reds. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-05-21 | Mets -122 v. Nationals | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS These teams played two yesterday. The Mets won the first game 11-9, but then the Nationals bounced back with a 4-3 win in the nightcap. What was notable about that first game is the Mets blew a nine-run lead. They needed a 2-run HR by Francisco Lindor in the ninth to win it. It was their sixth straight win as well as Washington’s seventh straight loss. The Mets had previously never blown an eight-run lead and lost. It was similar on Friday when they needed extra innings after blowing a two-run lead going into the ninth. We wouldn’t put too much stock in Washington winning the second game Saturday. It’s tough to sweep a doubleheader. What we do know is the Mets should be the more motivated team heading into Sunday’s series finale. They are 3.5 games back of Atlanta for the division lead and 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. The Nationals are a last place team simply playing out the string. Taijuan Walker, who will start today’s game for the Mets, is really due for a win. He has an 0-7 team start record his past seven starts despite having a 0.80 WHIP in the previous three. Those last three starts were all against either the Dodgers or Giants, the two best teams. Josiah Gray just gave up six runs in his last start for the Nationals. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start he’s made this season. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-04-21 | White Sox -151 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were beaten 7-2 last night. That was unexpected as the Kansas City team that beat them just got swept at home by Cleveland. The Royals had dropped four in a row overall heading into Friday’s opener. But they’ve now won three straight over the White Sox. That said, Chicago leads this division for a reason. They’d previously won five of six and scored at least 10 runs in three of those five wins. Let’s just chalk up last night’s result to a 2+ hr rain delay and the fact that Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been very good lately. But Reynaldo Lopez has been good for them. In three August starts, the right-hander gave up just three runs and eight hits. While he pitched only 12 innings, we’ll take it. Kansas City had been held under four runs for four straight games coming into the series. Daniel Lynch hasn’t been giving up many runs lately, but that’ll change if his control issues persist. Lynch has a 4.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for the year. His worst start of 2021 came here at home against the White Sox. They blasted him for eight runs over a disastrous two-thirds of an inning. That was back in May, but Chicago still knows how to hit. They’ve averaged 7.3 runs over the last seven games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-01-21 | Rockies -126 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO It takes a lot to want to play Colorado on the road, especially after two straight losses. There are nine teams with 40 or more home wins. Four reside in the National League West and the Rockies (43-22) are one of them. But they are just 17-50 outside of Coors after taking a 4-3 loss last night in Arlington. But this is the Rangers that they are still facing. At 47-85, Texas is having an even worse season than Colorado. That record is third worst overall. They are still a MLB-worst 12-30 since the All Star Break even though they’ve won three straight. The last time the Rangers won three in a row was July 31st-August 2nd. They have not won four in a row, or swept an opponent, since late June. It is difficult to see the home team prevailing today with Kohei Arihara starting. Making his first start since May, Arihara has a 6.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season. His last three starts saw him give up 16 runs in 8.3 innings. Granted, that was a long time ago. But there’s no reason to expect a good performance here. Coming off shoulder surgery, Arihara will throw only 40-45 pitches before giving way to a bullpen that isn’t very good. The Rockies tend to struggle to score runs on the road, which is why the record is so bad, but they do have a DH at their disposal here. They also have Kyle Freeland and they are 5-0 in his previous five starts. Freeland also posted a 2.40 ERA in July. Over his last three starts, he’s beaten the Dodgers and Giants. So it stands to reason he should beat the Rangers. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD Over the past week, Atlanta has cooled off. Playing the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers will do that to you. After winning nine in a row from 8/13 to 8/22, the Braves have dropped four of their last six. They lost 5-3 last night. It is unlikely that they will turn things around tonight at Dodgers Stadium. Walker Buehler is pitching for the home side and he’s 13-2 in 26 starts. His ERA and WHIP are down to 2.02 and 0.92. LA has won the last four times he’s started and he has a 1.13 ERA the last seven starts. We’re not in the habit of betting against one of the best teams in baseball when their top pitcher is going. Charlie Morton is having a fine year for Atlanta but did allow four runs last week in a home loss to the Yankees. He gave up two home runs. Going back to Buehler, he dominated the Braves in last year’s National League Championship Series. He held them to one run in 11 innings. He’s also beaten them both times he’s faced them in the regular season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE There aren’t many pitchers in the game hotter than Corbin Burnes is right now. The Brewers right-hander has not dropped a decision since May 25th. The team has won his last seven starts with Burnes putting up a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in five of the seven starts. Tonight’s start will have a decided “postseason feel” as Burnes will face the Giants, the team with the best record in baseball. But Burnes has proven he can handle the Giants. It was earlier this month that he held them to one run and four hits over seven innings. Milwaukee ended up winning 2-1. They won Sunday in Minnesota 6-2. That put a stop to their longest losing streak (three games) since the All Star Break. No team has more road victories than the Brewers’ 43 this season. So they won’t be fazed heading to Oracle Park. They’ve got their best pitcher on the mound for tonight’s opener. The Giants just got through a 10-day road trip and it ended with a 9-0 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. They hit just .209 on that trip. Johnny Cueto is not going to be able to outduel Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-29-21 | Reds -174 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -174 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Yesterday marked a first in the 2021 MLB season as the Reds fell to the Marlins. Cincy had previously been 5-0 vs. Miami this year and was 11-1 against them since the start of 2019. We had the Reds when they won 6-0 here on Friday. We think they’ll bounce back today. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks to be in their favor. Tyler Mahle has been just tremendous when he starts on the road for the Reds. He is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. A five-run first inning by the Marlins is what doomed the Reds on Saturday. With Mahle starting this afternoon, that’s not going to happen again. But Jesus Luzardo has had his problems for Miami and he’s the starter more likely to struggle today. In his last three starts, Luzardo has a 9.94 ERA. It’s been that kind of year for the lefty. He has a 7.51 ERA overall and 6.69 ERA at home. Yesterday was only the third win for the Marlins in their past 12 games. The Reds are holding on to the NL’s second Wild Card right now and thus can’t afford another loss to a last place opponent. They are 30-12 L42 games as a favorite. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-29-21 | Cardinals -168 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -168 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STL St. Louis was a 13-0 winner last night as they try to stay relevant in the playoff race. They’ve had little difficulty winning here in Pittsburgh all season. Last night brought them to 8-1 at PNC Park in 2021. That’s really not shocking. The Pirates have baseball’s fourth worst overall record and the second worst run differential. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors. Last night was all about Adam Wainwright as he extended his own personal scoreless streak against the Pirates to 26 innings. He is unbeaten his last 17 starts against them, which includes a 4-0 record and 0.30 ERA this season. The Pirates could only manage five hits Saturday. Wil Crowe, who will be the Pirates starter Sunday, is having a much different August compared to Wainwright. Crowe is winless with a 5.71 ERA in his past four starts. He has lost two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year. Kwang-Hyun Kim, a lefty, will hope to pick up where Wainwright left off. There was a three-start stretch last month where Kim did not allow any runs. Though his ERA is up over his last three starts, the WHIP is fine and he’s clearly better than Crowe. We don’t see the Cardinals coming anywhere close to making the playoffs, but they are 8-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and seem to have no problem beating the Pirates. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-27-21 | Reds -139 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati knows how to beat Miami. They’ve come out ahead 10 of the last 11 times they’ve faced the Marlins. The teams had not faced each other in 2021 prior to last weekend when the Reds won all four home games. To be fair, lots of teams beat up on the last place Marlins. The Fish were on an eight-game slide entering Wednesday. They’ve since beaten Washington two times, 4-3 and 7-5. But we don’t expect them to solve the Big Red Machine Friday night. The Reds won in Milwaukee Thursday afternoon 5-1. So with San Diego losing, they have a two-game lead for the second Wild Card. Sonny Gray pitched a strong game yesterday. We expect Wade Miley to do the same thing tonight. Miley has a 15-8 team start record and has won his last six decisions. He leads the entire team in WAR. In six career starts against Miami, Miley has a 1.86 ERA. He’s simply a better pitcher than Miami’s Zach Thompson, who has seen his ERA steadily rise all year. It’s now up to 3.12. Thompson’s team start record in his last eight starts is 1-7. The Marlins likely won’t have CF Brinson for tonight’s opener after he sprained his thumb last night. It doesn’t look good when you are 14-25 vs. left-handed starters and facing Miley, who not only just beat them last week but has also given up only seven runs in his last four starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays -164 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto played yesterday. Detroit did not. Both teams are off losses though. The Blue Jays lost at home to the White Sox 10-7 on Thursday. The Tigers lost 3-2 at St. Louis Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers may have a slight edge when it comes to the schedule, but Toronto has more talent. Now detractors would quickly point to last weekend when the Blue Jays lost two of the three home games vs. the Tigers. But they are still in playoff contention. They are 5.5 games back of the Wild Card with 36 games left. Detroit is six games below .500 and playing out the string. Friday’s pitching matchup definitely favors Toronto. They’ve got Steven Matz and he’s allowed only six runs in four August starts. Half of those runs he allowed were unearned. He pitched well vs. Detroit when he faced them Sunday. He went six innings and the only run he allowed was Miguel Cabrera’s 500th career homer. Matt Manning has started three games for the Tigers this month. In the first of the three, he allowed the same number of runs that Matz had allowed all month long. Manning also walked four batters in his most recent start, a season-high. Matz has pitched better on the road this year. Toronto is 9-4 off its previous 13 losses. They are on a 23-8 run vs. teams with losing records. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-26-21 | Yankees -109 v. A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY The Wild Card race in the American League has changed dramatically over the last 10 games. The Yankees are 10-0 while the A’s 2-8. The Yankees will be looking for their 12th straight win tonight. This sudden surge has them holding the top Wild Card spot. The A’s, losers of four in a row, are 1.5 games back of Boston for the second Wild Card. It wasn’t that long ago that Oakland seemed like a shoo-in for the postseason. Right now, we don’t see how you bet against this Yankees team. They’ve got Jameson Taillon set to start Thursday’s game. He has not lost a decision since May 31st, going 7-0 in 14 starts with a 3.21 ERA. The team is 23-5 in the last 28 games, making them the hottest team in the majors right now. Oakland has scored only five runs in the last three games. Kaprielian has been good for the A’s, but Taillon remembers June 18th, a game the two faced off and Oakland won 5-3. The two had pretty similar numbers that day. Though the A’s won that one, the Yankees won the other two games of that series. These are two teams going in different directions right now. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers -142 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the slumping Padres 5-2 last night. Looking at the NL West standings, there is now an 11.5 game gap between the two teams. That’s not what the San Diego faithful expected from 2021. They were supposed to challenge LA for division supremacy. Instead, they are a bit of an afterthought in third place. They may not even make the playoffs as they’re locked into a tight race with Cincinnati for the second Wild Card spot. They enter today one game behind the Reds. As bad as the Padres need to win here, the Dodgers aren’t going to lie down. They are trying to catch the Giants for first place. The Dodgers should still be considered the best team in MLB. They have won 14 of 16. The Padres have lost 10 of 12. San Diego leads the season series 7-4, but the Dodgers have won the season series each of the last 10 years. It was a 5-0 game heading into the bottom of the eighth last night. The Padres are just 4-11 as home underdogs of +125 to +175. Walker Buehler is set to start this game for Los Angeles. He is 13-2 this year with a 2.11 ERA. That ERA is tops in the National League. His only losses this year were games where the Dodgers were shutout. Buehler is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA vs. San Diego all-time. The Padres’ starting rotation is in tatters right now and it would take a near perfect effort from Blake Snell to get the job done here. We don’t see that happening. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers -170 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee rallied past Cincinnati last night for a 7-4 win. The prior six meetings had all been won by the road team. More importantly for the Brewers, the win stretched their lead in the NL Central to 8.5 games. The Reds aren’t going to catch them, but the good news is that the Wild Card is still an option. They currently lead the Padres by one game in the race for the second WC spot. The Brewers played “small ball” on Tuesday night, scoring three runs on sacrifice flies. Reds’ hitters did surprisingly well against Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes. But look for them to struggle vs. Brandon Woodruff tonight. Woodruff did have a rough outing last week in St. Louis and his team start record since 7/25 is just 1-4. However, Woodruff has allowed only two runs in two starts vs. the Reds this year. His 2.48 ERA is still among the very best in the league. Cincinnati doesn’t do nearly the amount of scoring on the road that they do at home. Luis Castillo has not had the greatest season for them on the mound. His TSR is 10-16 overall and 4-9 on the road. A 5.27 ERA in those 13 road starts certainly helps explain that record. Milwaukee is 30 games over .500 since May 21st. They will win tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Based on the fact they have scored 117 more runs than they have allowed, you’d think Toronto would have one of the best records in baseball. But they don’t. They are stuck in fourth place in the American League East with a 65-58 record. They did win yesterday though, 2-1 over American League Central leading Chicago. The Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card and need to jump three teams. The White Sox postseason future is much more secure as they lead their division by nine games. So Toronto should be the team playing with a greater sense of urgency in this series. It also says a lot that they’d be favored to beat a team like the White Sox. Tonight’s pitching matchup has a lot to do with it. Jose Berrios, obtained in a trade with the Twins at the deadline, is no stranger to facing Chicago. He’s 12-4 in his career against them and has a 2.91 ERA. For the White Sox, starter Dylan Cease has never faced Toronto. Cease did allow four walks and two home runs in his most recent outing. The White Sox are only a .500 team on the road (30-30). They are 14-38 L52 as road underdogs. The way Toronto won last night’s game, scoring the game-winning run on a wild pitch, should give them some momentum heading into today. They are 12-4 L16 home games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Seattle pulled the “rabbit out of the hat” yet again on Monday. They rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth and beat Oakland 5-3. It was a crushing loss for the A’s, who are now on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the Wild Card race. The blown lead comes on the heels of the last series with the Mariners, which saw the A’s lose three games by one run. The Mariners have thrived in close games all season. Oakland has not. At least recently they haven’t. Before yesterday’s blown lead, the A’s lost two straight one-run decisions to the Giants. The last 12 runs they’ve allowed, going back to Friday, have all been via the home run. It’s probably good then that Cole Irvin is starting Tuesday afternoon. Irvin not only has a 3.13 ERA in his L10 starts, but has only given up a total of three home runs during that stretch. Seattle starter Chris Flexen may have a 16-7 team start record, but Irvin has a lower ERA and WHIP. The Mariners have won 9 of 12 but only one of those wins was by more than two runs and not in extra innings. They have a penchant for getting blown out. That’s what we think will happen today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-23-21 | Rockies +117 v. Cubs | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Something is going to have to give here as the Rockies are 14-45 on the road, but the Cubs have lost a franchise record 13 straight home games. In spite of the poor road record, we’re citing Colorado as they at least have some positive momentum coming off a 5-1 homestand. They did lose Sunday to Arizona, but that was after five straight wins with five or more runs scored every time out. The Cubs are 3-16 overall in August and were just swept by the Royals. The mass exodus of talent at the trade deadline has turned them into one of the worst teams in the league. Kyle Hendricks has been their saving grace this year. But it seems as if Hendricks should feel fortunate to be tied for the MLB lead in wins. He has a 4.04 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The last time he pitched at Wrigley, Hendricks gave up nine runs and lasted just four innings. There have been five games this year where Hendricks has surrendered at least five runs. Four of those were at home. Senzatela hasn’t won on the road this year, but he is coming off two straight quality outings. The Rockies are on a 27-14 run against teams with losing records. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-18-21 | Padres -142 v. Rockies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego’s only path to the playoffs is the Wild Card and their season-long hold on that position is slipping. They’ve lost six of seven, all to losing teams. It was fortunate that the Reds also lost Tuesday night as the Padres lead for the 2nd WC is down to 1.5 games. Back to back losses to Colorado, on the heels of losing three of four at Arizona, is just not acceptable for a team trying to make the playoffs. The Padres have now dropped six straight at Coors Field where the Rockies obviously play much better than they do at home. But we’ll call for San Diego to “circle the wagons” Wednesday afternoon and avoid the sweep, just like they did Sunday in Arizona. We know it’s risky to back Jake Arrieta as he was just waived by a Cubs team that has lost 18 of its last 21 games. But he’ll be backed by a better offense here in San Diego. Key here is that Colorado has the weakest member of its starting rotation going today. That would be Chi Chi Gonzalez. Not only does he have a 6.04 ERA for the year, but he has a 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. He hasn’t pitched since July 23rd due to being on the COVID-19 list. In his previous five starts vs. the Padres, Gonzales is 0-2 with a 6.40 ERA. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-17-21 | Indians v. Twins -144 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Twins walked off for a third straight win last night. They beat Cleveland 5-4 in 10 innings. While winning took a little longer than expected, the Twins did outhit the Indians 14-8 in the game. Cleveland stayed in it due to the Twins committing four errors. We should see cleaner play in the field today behind Bailey Ober. Ober did not allow a run in 5.3 innings the last time we saw him. That was against the first place White Sox. In his last 20 innings of work, Ober has only allowed six runs and he has 21 strikeouts. His team is playing well right now. They’re on pace to win a fourth straight series and the last three were against the AL division leaders. Cleveland, who lost Eli Morgan’s last start 17-0, has won back to back games only once in August. Morgan goes for the first time since that debacle here. A rookie just like Ober, Morgan has a 6.52 ERA. He has just one win in 10 starts. The Twins have won six of the last eight games with Cleveland. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -161 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCY Once the reality of a losing season sets in, it is not uncommon for a team to be a “seller” at the trade deadline. That’s precisely what the Cubs were last month. That mentality obviously has an adverse effect on morale. But the Cubs’ decline has been so severe that it’s downright shameful. Yesterday saw them lose a 12th consecutive game as they fell to 2-18 since July 27th. Monday’s loss came by a score of 14-5. It was the fourth time in the past six games that Cubs pitching allowed double digit runs. The Reds are really having their way with the Cubs as they are 10-4 against them in the 2021 season, 6-1 when at home. The Cubs are a horrid 3-16 as road underdogs of +125 to +175. They face Gutierrez tonight. Gutierrez has won four straight starts for the Reds. One of those was vs. the Cubs. He’s got a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the last three. The Reds are putting up 5.7 runs per game at home. That’s more than everybody except Colorado. We expect them to score plenty of runs this evening off Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. He just got roughed up for nine runs in his last start. The Reds have gone 14-6 in their last 20 games and are just 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-16-21 | Padres -124 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SD By winning Sunday, San Diego avoided what would have been a complete embarrassment. That embarrassment would have been getting swept by Arizona, the team with the worst record in the majors. The Padres’ grip on the second Wild Card spot has gotten weaker in recent weeks. Their lead is down to 2.5 games over the Reds. They aren’t catching the Dodgers or Giants. So it’s really important that they take this series with Colorado seriously. The Padres are just 17-15 vs. the Rockies and Diamondbacks this year. If they don’t make the playoffs, it will be because they didn’t dominate the two bad teams in their division. We think they will win Monday. Fernando Tatis is back in the lineup. He returned Sunday and hit two home runs. Ryan Weathers will start tonight’s game. It’s been a rough last three starts for him but he still has a 2.28 ERA on the road. Colorado is off a 1-5 road trip. While they are a lot better at home, they are 26-41 off a loss. Antonio Senzatela has not looked the same since coming off the injured list as he’s given up seven runs in 10.6 innings. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-16-21 | Astros -150 v. Royals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston had a four-game win streak snapped Sunday. They lost at the Angels 3-1, falling prey to a dialed in pitcher. That shouldn’t be the case here as they go up against Kansas City and Carlos Hernandez. The Astros still lead the AL West and are one of only five times with 70 wins this year. The Royals are in last place in their division after dropping four straight and 11 of their last 15. They just got swept by St. Louis and all three games were decided by five runs or more. While Hernandez has pitched well recently, here he’ll be facing the highest scoring team in the majors. Houston averages 5.6 runs/contest on the road. The Royals bullpen had to work overtime yesterday (7.6 innings), so that’s another problem. Jake Odorizzi may seem like a question mark. But he threw five scoreless innings in his last start for the Astros. Kansas City has scored only eight times in its last four games. This is a real mismatch where we are shocked the Astros’ odds of winning aren’t higher. They are on a 17-5 run as road favorites. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO There’s a good chance we see both these teams in the postseason. Chicago is pretty much a lock at this point as they hold a 10-game lead in the division. Oakland is second out West, 2.5 games behind Houston, but is safely in Wild Card position. The A’s had won 12 of 15 before a loss on Sunday. That loss came against the last place Rangers, a team that for whatever reason they do not dominate like they should. Chicago has lost two in a row after winning in the cornfields of Iowa. We think this is a really good price on the White Sox at home. Even after the two losses to the Yankees, the Sox record at Guaranteed Rate Field is 39-22. Over the last seven games, their pitching staff has held opposing hitters to a .197 average. They’ve allowed a .215 average at home for the season. Monday’s starter Dallas Keuchel has an 8-3 TSR at home. This is a revenge series for the White Sox as well. They were eliminated from last year’s playoffs by Oakland. That three game series is the only time these teams have met since 2019. Has Frankie Montas pitched well for the A’s in 2021? Yes. But he’s faced some weak lineups recently (Cleveland twice and Seattle). Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -172 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -172 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS This has been a dramatic series so far. It began in Iowa on Thursday. In what was quite the spectacle, the White Sox walked off the “Field of Dreams” as 9-8 winners. The teams then got Friday off. Saturday it was the Yankees' turn to win in thrilling fashion as they prevailed 7-5 in 10 innings. Someone is gonna win this series on Sunday and we believe it will be the White Sox. Let’s start with the fact that Chicago has been an excellent home team in 2021. They are 39-21 at Guaranteed Rate Field despite Saturday’s loss. This includes a 21-5 record if they are -125 to -175 favorites. They have a clear edge over the Yankees in day games. The White Sox record in day games is 27-19. The Yankees are 16-26. The White Sox had more hits yesterday. They also have Lucas Giolito set to start Sunday. In four of his last five starts, Giolito has gone 6+ innings and allowed only one run. He went eight innings in Minnesota Monday and only gave up two hits. While we have touted Nestor Cortes previously, today’s starter for the Yankees struggled in his last appearance. He gave up five runs at Kansas City. They may have scored 15 runs in the last two games, but the Yankees’ offensive numbers - for the season - are not that great. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies -164 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA Two teams looking to make late season surges will meet this weekend in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 games to move into first place in the NL East. They beat the Dodgers 2-1 yesterday and avoided being swept at home. Cincinnati had also been rolling prior to its last series. Like the Phillies, a win yesterday allowed them to avoid getting swept. They won big, 12-3 over Atlanta. The Reds are 7-4 in August. But four of those seven wins were against Pittsburgh, who is very bad. Tyler Mahle has pitched well on the road this season. But he hasn’t pitched as well as the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler. After tossing a complete-game shutout in his last start, Wheeler’s ERA and WHIP are down to 2.42 and 0.994. Wheeler’s 11 strikeouts against the Mets on Sunday were his most in any start since June. He has made four starts against the Reds in his career, never lost and never given up a home run. As for Mahle, two previous starts vs. Philadelphia has resulted in a 7.50 ERA. The Phillies are 35-23 at home and as hot as any team in baseball right now. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants -168 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Bettors quickly jumped on the Giants this morning and we were one of them. How could you not? The Rockies are just terrible on the road. A 13-42 record is what they have away from Coors Field this season. That’s after losing twice in Houston this week. Colorado scored just one time in those two games. They have not faced San Francisco since early May. Since then, these teams' respective seasons have gone in very different directions. The Giants (73-41) have the best record in baseball. They have won four in a row and are 37-17 at home. Over the past seven games, the Giants have scored five or more runs six times. But a bigger reason for their success is the fact that only two teams (Dodgers, Brewers) have allowed fewer runs this season. Logan Webb is Thursday’s starting pitcher. He has a 6-0 TSR at home. In his last nine starts, Webb has never given up more than two runs. The Giants are 8-1 in those games. He’s gone exactly six innings his last three times out and faced the Dodgers, Astros and Brewers. Colorado has its best pitcher going today in Marquez, but he only has a 3-6 TSR on the road and has struggled in his career vs. the Giants (6.68 ERA). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers -133 v. Phillies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers’ ended the Phillies’ eight-game win streak last night with a convincing 5-0 victory. There was a rain delay, which resulted in both starters leaving, but our read is that this is a clear step up in class for Philadelphia after sweeping the Nationals and Mets. The home team is banking on tonight’s starter Kyle Gibson carrying the load. But he’s lost both previous times he’s faced the Dodgers. His ERA in the two starts is 7.71. Gibson’s first two starts for the Phillies were against light-hitting teams. The Dodgers have scored the most runs in the National League. The Dodgers also have the edge in the bullpen. Unless it’s a bad start from David Price, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win for a fourth straight time. There’s no reason to expect a bad start from Price, although the Dodgers have lost the last six times he’s started. Look for that streak to end though as he has a 3.33 ERA vs. the Phillies. Price has pitched better than his record shows. He has a 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers are 76-36 following a win. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros -175 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has lost six of nine. Going 2-3 on the road against the Dodgers and Giants wasn’t what they were looking for, but it’s at least understandable. Losing three of four at home to Minnesota, something they did over the weekend, is less so. The Astros lead in the AL West is down to two games, so they can’t afford to “mess around” the next two days when Colorado comes to town. The Rockies are off a three-game sweep of Miami. But that came at home. The team’s record on the road this year is 13-40. That’s the second worst win percentage on the road among all 30 teams. Only division mate Arizona is worse. They have won just one road series all year and that came right before the All Star Break. We look at this as a “buy low” spot with Houston. Odorizzi has struggled of late, but look at that as a byproduct of some of the teams he’s faced. He had to pitch on the road against the White Sox and Dodgers. In between those losses, he was on the mound for wins over Seattle and Texas, who are bad teams like Colorado. Jon Gray, as you’d expect, has a 2-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies. The Astros lost two games at Coors Field back in April. So they are out for revenge tonight. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON This is a critical series in the AL East. Tampa Bay leads the division right now with a 68-44 record. Boston is four games back with both New York and Toronto hot on their heels. The AL East is the only division to currently have four teams with positive run differentials. At least two teams will make the playoffs. Boston has been in first or second most of the year, but has lost 9 of its last 12 games. Three of those losses were in Tampa. But Tuesday marks a return to Fenway after playing 10 straight on the road. The Red Sox sport a 33-22 home record. Eduardo Rodriguez, who did not allow any runs in his last start and had 10 strikeouts, starts for them tonight. The 10 strikeouts were a season-high for Rodriguez. It came in one of the Red Sox three wins on the road trip. The Rays have won 13 of 18 and four straight. But they also got to play the Orioles over the weekend. Luis Patino has made three previous starts on the road. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in those three starts. We look for a reversal of recent fortunes with these two teams tonight. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 13 series openers. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians -148 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland beat Detroit 6-1 last night. They’ve really had the Tigers number whether you are talking about this year (9-5 head to head record), the last two years (16-8) or the last three years (34-9). The Tigers have really struggled to win at Progressive Field where they are 4-16 since the start of the 2019 season. They didn’t even score until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game as Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill turned in the best start of his career. Cleveland will look to make it two in a row behind rookie Eli Morgan, who had nine strikeouts in six innings his last start. Morgan has given up no more than three runs in each of his last four starts. What makes that all the more impressive is he faced Houston twice, Toronto and Oakland. Those are all good teams. Houston averages almost 6.0 runs/game. Toronto averages the most runs/game at home in the entire league. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-03-21 | Braves -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The good news for Atlanta is that they have not lost back to back games since the All Star Break. The bad news is that they also have not won back to back games since the All Star Break. For the sake of Tuesday, they hope the pattern of alternating wins and losses (now over the course of 17 games) continues as they are off a loss heading into St. Louis. The Cardinals may be at home, but the Braves are favored in this one as they try to move within a game of .500. The Braves have the NL East’s best run differential, which is something worth mentioning. They are only 3.5 games out of first place. St. Louis is very much in “also-ran” status in the Central, trailing Milwaukee by 10 games. The Cardinals may have a better than .500 record (56-52), but they have a -37 run differential. Compare that to Atlanta, whose run differential is +49. The Braves are the better team, which is why they are favored, and Max Fried is looking to stay unbeaten for his career against St. Louis. Earlier in 2021, Fried allowed just one run, two hits and two walks in a 9-1 win over the Cardinals. He has a 0.65 ERA in three games against them. Jon Lester will be making his St. Louis debut on Tuesday. The problem is he’s lasted six innings just three times this season and he lost to Baltimore in his final start for the Nationals. The Braves are one of five NL teams to have scored 500 runs this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-02-21 | Giants -180 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco is 9-1 against Arizona this season. That’s what you’d expect from the team who has the best record in baseball playing the team with the worst record in baseball. But also, the last two seasons have seen the Giants go 17-3 vs. the Diamondbacks. So they’ve got their number. The lone loss this year occurred on July 1st. After that, the Giants won the final three games of that series by outscoring the D’backs 22-11. The Giants’ last two series were against Houston and the Dodgers, two of the top teams in baseball. They won two of three games in each series. To say this is a step down in class would be putting it mildly. Arizona is 40 games below .500. They are -31.9 units. The Giants are +23.4 units by the way, making them the best team to bet on. So it doesn’t matter if it’s the actual field or at the betting window -- these teams are miles apart. For Arizona to even have a chance against the Giants, they would need a favorable starting pitching matchup. They do not today. Anthony DeSclafani has a 14-7 team start record for the Giants, thanks to a 3.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has pitched better on the road this year. Arizona’s Taylor Widener has allowed five runs in consecutive starts, which were against Pittsburgh and Texas, two last place teams. This is the definition of a “mismatch.” Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS This rematch of the 1987 World Series has seen each team post a win. The Cardinals struck first, winning Friday’s game by a score of 5-1. But then it was the Twins’ turn on Saturday as they prevailed by an even greater margin (8-1). We like the idea of taking a home team off an embarrassing loss as long as they’re not drastically outclassed in terms of talent. That’s definitely not the case here as Minnesota has been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2021. The Twins are down -29.6 units (2nd worst) and in last place in the American League Central. St. Louis won’t be going to the playoffs either but at least they can claim a .500 record. They’d also won 8 of their previous 12 games going into yesterday. There are only four teams Adam Wainwright has never beaten in his 15+ year big league career. Minnesota is one of the four. Wainwright can check them off the list today and he comes in having pitched pretty well of late. His last two starts both went seven innings and he allowed only three runs total. He also has a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. The Twins are not a good road team (19-31) and were big sellers at the trade deadline. Michael Pineda’s last start was the first time he lasted six innings since May. The Twins did score eight times Saturday, but remember they are without a designated hitter, making their lineup weaker than usual. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-31-21 | Phillies -155 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies ought to be ashamed of themselves for losing 7-0 to the Pirates last night. Even in Pittsburgh, the Bucs are just 22-29 this year and they came into this series having lost 8 of their last 10 overall. In their last series, which was here in PNC Park and against Milwaukee, they got shut out twice and were outscored 28-3 over three games. The Phillies may not have the pitching the Brewers do, but the Pirates are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The home team scoring seven times wasn’t the only thing surprising about last night, however. Their pitching also held the Phillies to just one hit. Look for the script to be reversed on Saturday. Aaron Nola, off maybe his best start of 2021, should handle the Pirates’ feeble lineup. Nola was just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday as he kept Atlanta to one run. He has 45 strikeouts in his past five starts, which have spanned 30 innings. That’s a good rate. Then you’ve got JT Brubaker going for the Pirates and there aren't many nice things we can say about him. Brubaker has lost six straight decisions and has an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts. He has an 8.52 ERA his last three starts and he’s allowed 10 home runs in the last five. The last five times that the Phillies have scored two runs or less, they have come back to win the next game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-31-21 | A's -132 v. Angels | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The A’s look to make it three straight wins over the Angels and four straight wins overall this afternoon in Anaheim. The first two wins of this series have both been shutouts, 4-0 and then 2-0. With the Wild Card race tightening, winning these games is very important for Oakland. They have a 2.5 game lead over Seattle, who is playing last place Texas this weekend. Following yesterday’s win, Oakland is now 7-1 off a shutout victory in 2021. Injuries have really decimated the Angels lineup to the point that it’s now pretty easy to pitch around Shohei Ohtani. Cole Irvin will be looking to lead a third straight shutout win today. He didn’t allow any runs the last time he faced Los Angeles in a seven inning effort. That was earlier this month. The A’s bullpen did give up a run in that game, but the team still won 4-1. Since then, A’s pitching has a 27-inning scoreless streak against the Angels. Head to head this season, Oakland is 11-3 vs. their division rival. Jaime Barria is making just his second start of the year for the Angels today. Given how ineffective his teammates have been against Oakland in ‘21, Barria will need to be near perfect to get the win here. We don’t think he’s capable of getting the job done. Oakland is 14-4 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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07-29-21 | Brewers -184 v. Pirates | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We just don’t see any path to victory for the Pirates. Yesterday was the eighth time in the previous nine meetings that they lost to Milwaukee. The last five losses have all been in Pittsburgh this month and what’s crazy is that all five losses have been by four runs or more. It was a 7-3 final yesterday with two of the Pirates runs coming in relatively meaningless fashion. Those two were scored in the bottom of the ninth with the game already out of hand. The Brewers’ scored the game’s first seven runs. This was after a 9-0 win on Tuesday. The Brewers are starting to run away with the NL Central as they’ve built a seven game lead. They’ve allowed the second fewest number of runs in baseball during 2021. Pittsburgh has scored the fewest, so you can see why this has been even more lopsided than most first place vs. last place matchups. We look for Freddy Peralta to pitch the visitors to another victory tonight as he has put together a strong season with a 2.34 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Peralta has a 12-6 TSR and what’s crazy is that there has been only one start where he allowed more than three runs. Chad Kuhl has been Pittsburgh’s most profitable starter, but he still has a 4.36 ERA. Milwaukee’s 31 road wins are tied for the most in MLB and they have scored at least six times in four of the last five games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels -200 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LOS ANGELES The Angels got embarrassed Tuesday night as they lost to the Rockies 12-3. Why is that so embarrassing? Well, besides the score itself, you have to realize that Colorado is a MLB-worst 11-37 on the road where it averages fewer than three runs per contest. Last night saw the Rockies jump out to a 10-0 lead by the fifth inning. But starting pitching should be less of a concern for the home team tonight. Andrew Heaney is off a really strong effort where he allowed just two runs at Minnesota last week. The Angels won that game 3-2. The Rockies were lucky to have Austin Gomber on the mound Tuesday, but tonight they’re forced to rely on Chi-Chi Gonzalez. He has an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three trips to the mound. Given the season-long struggle to score runs on the road, you just can’t expect anything close to a repeat of last night’s performance from the Rockies. Only one time in 2021 have they won back to back road games. That was right before the All Star Break. Ohtani homered last night for the Angels, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. They are a perfect 6-0 after a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. They are 8-1 as home favorites of -175 or higher. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-27-21 | Reds v. Cubs -175 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs stormed back to beat the Reds last night 6-5. It was a bases loaded single from Javy Baez that won it in the bottom of the ninth. Down 5-3, the Cubs scored a run in each of the final three innings. That had to feel pretty good after losing three games in Cincinnati earlier in July - all of them by one run. We don’t think tonight’s game will be all that close though. The Cubs can be counted on to get the job done at Wrigley where they are 31-18 overall and 13-6 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Since the All Star Break, the Reds are allowing more than seven runs per game. Tough to win that way. Vladimir Gutierrez doesn’t exactly seem like a “stopper” either. He gave up three homers and six runs total in an ugly 15-11 loss to the Mets last week. Alzolay is a much better option for the Cubs even though he’s 0-6 in his last seven starts. That might sound weird, but it’s been a lack of run support that has hurt Alzolay the most. He pitched well enough to get the win on July 3rd in Cincinnati, but his offense went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. This time, at Wrigley, Alzolay will get the win. The Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the All Star Break and yesterday was the only one game to take place on the road. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins -162 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA The last eight times these teams have played, the home team has won. That means trouble for Detroit, who just got swept in Kansas City over the weekend and has now dropped seven straight overall on the road. They were swept here in Minnesota right before the break. Playing at home, they won seven in a row coming out of the break. But the sweep in Kansas City showed this is still the “same old Tigers.” Minnesota has lost 8 of 11 since the break including three games in Detroit. But the success that the home team has had in this season series is likely to continue Monday. The Tigers are 19-32 on the road (55-103 L3 seasons!), giving up 5.5 runs/game. Manning lost all three of his road starts for the team and not looked good in doing so with an 8.56 ERA. After being held in check the last two days, the Twins offense has to get rolling here. Pineda has been pretty good at home (3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and beat the White Sox here his last start. The Tigers are on a 27-55 run in series openers. We know the Twins have been the opposite of profitable in 2021, but this line speaks for itself. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -132 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We like Milwaukee to finish off what would be a very impressive sweep of the White Sox Sunday night. Chicago came into this interleague series with one of the best records in baseball. Only three teams have a better win percentage, but the Brewers are rapidly closing on them after the wins Friday and Saturday. The White Sox have managed only two runs against Milwaukee pitching so far. It won’t get any easier tonight when they face Brandon Woodruff. He has a 13-6 team start record this year. That record should probably be even better considering Woodruff’s ERA of 2.04 and his WHIP of 0.83. At American Family Field, the Brewers are 7-2 when he starts. In the last seven games, Milwaukee has averaged 6.3 runs/game while allowing only 3.3. Opponents’ batting average is only .193 in those seven games. Chicago is hitting just .211 its last seven games while averaging 3.4 runs. Lance Lynn won’t be enough to save them here as they are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are just a .500 team on the road overall (23-23). It’s been 7-1 and 6-1 the first two games of this series, so things haven’t even been close. The Brewers homered four times on Saturday. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -159 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -159 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS From June 25th until July 6th, the Cubs lost 11 straight games. That losing streak really took them out of the NL Central race. They are now looking at a nine game deficit to make up in the division and it’s just as large if they want to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. Too bad that they can’t play Arizona every day then. Since ending that 11-game losing streak, the Cubs have won six times. Three of those wins were versus the Diamondbacks. Last night they won 8-3, a game they homered three times and led 7-0 when starter Zach Davies exited. In case you needed to be reminded, Arizona is a horrible baseball team. At 30-69, they have the worst overall record. They’ve also been outscored by 150 runs. The road has seen them go 11-39 and lose 31 of their last 33 games! We’ve got to play against them at this price. Especially with it being a day game, a situation that Arizona is 10-23 this year. The Cubs are used to day games. Starting today will be Alec Mills, who has a solid 3.45 ERA in six starts since becoming a regular part of the rotation. For Arizona, Merrill Kelly is probably their best starter. But even he has a 3-7 TSR away from home and a 5.33 ERA as well. The Cubs are 29-17 at home. How can we not? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-23-21 | Angels -119 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA One swing of the bat altered last night’s Angels-Twins game in a major way. It was a three-run homer by Jack Mayfield that gave the road team a 3-2 win Thursday. Andrew Heaney also retired the last 11 batters he saw in his longest start of the season. It’s tough times right now in Minnesota as they just traded away Nelson Cruz. That move signified the Twins are basically throwing in the towel on 2021. They’ve been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments and that’s reflected by the fact they are down 26.2 units, second worst out of all 30 teams. Friday’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Angels as they’ve got Alex Cobb starting. He is 2-0 with 0.92 ERA in three starts this month and has allowed one or no earned runs in four of his last five starts. Minnesota’s J.A. Happ just got rocked in Detroit where he surrendered seven runs and 11 hits. That was the third time in the last six starts he allowed six or more runs and the second time in the last three. Happ has given up at least one home run in nine straight starts with multiple HR’s allowed five times. He has a 5.14 ERA in nine previous starts vs. the Angels. Shohei Ohtani, possibly feeling the effects of the All Star festivities, is just 4 for his last 24. Don’t be surprised if he has a big day at the plate tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rays -137 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB The Rays swept the Indians earlier this month. Since then, they’ve managed to take two of three in three straight series. They are second in the AL East, one game behind Boston. As for the Indians, they’d lost nine in a row after being swept in Tampa Bay. They’ve turned it around somewhat, but did just drop two of three in Houston. Before that, they swept Kansas City and took two of three from Oakland. The Indians are also a second place team, but are 7.5 games behind the Rays. They did win yesterday, but we see their struggles vs. the Rays continuing tonight. Tampa Bay is a good road team (95-68 L3 seasons). They average 5.3 runs/game away from home in 2021. Cleveland is 1-7 as a home underdog of +125 to +175. The Rays don’t exactly have their best starter on the mound this evening, but Luis Patino is facing a lineup that is bottom five in batting average and on base percentage. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill had not recorded a win in any of his first seven starts. He’s won his last two, but still has a 5.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Randy Arozarena has gotten hot at the plate for the Rays, who averaged seven runs/game in the previous three-game sweep of the Indians. Cleveland is 3-13 its last 16 games vs. Tampa Bay. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -130 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT Detroit is 6-0 since the All-Star Break and all signs point to them finishing off their second straight sweep. They’ve won three in a row over the Rangers, whose second half is off to a much different start. Texas has not won a game since July 9th as the losing streak hit eight with yesterday’s 4-2 loss. The most embarrassing thing of all is that Texas has failed to score more than two runs in any of its last seven games. They’ve been shutout three times, once by Detroit (14-0 in series opener) and scored a total of six runs in those last seven contests. The Rangers have the third worst record in baseball and are 13-36 on the road, 0-11 when the money line is +125 to -125. As if things couldn’t get any worse, they’ve got Mike Foltynewicz on the hill Thursday. After giving up 10 runs in an inning and two-thirds last week vs Toronto, Foltynewicz has a 6-13 team start record. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine straight starts. The last two starts have seen him give up a total of seven long balls. Detroit, whose pitching has given up a total of seven runs during its six-game win streak, will turn to Tyler Alexander today. This is a good matchup for the lefty as Texas is barely hitting over .100 its last eight games. The Rangers are 0-9 the L9 times they’ve lost the first three games of a series. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -116 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS This is the rubber match between two teams whose respective seasons have gone a bit sideways in recent weeks. The Cardinals won the first game 8-3 and were seemingly well on their way to winning again last night. But disaster struck in the bottom of the ninth when closer Alex Reyes had his first career blown save. The Cubs scored six times in the top of the ninth, sending 10 men to the plate, and wound up winning 7-6. It was only their eighth win in the last 29 games. They won and scored seven runs despite only having six hits. We will back St. Louis in this deciding game of the series as they’ve pretty clearly been the better team in the series aside from one bad inning. Adam Wainwright, who has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Busch Stadium, will be starting tonight. The Cubs only hit .217 on the road where they are 19-31 on the year. Going for the Cubs will be Kyle Hendricks. He has not lost a decision since May 9th vs. Pittsburgh and is 3-0 vs. the Cardinals in 2021. But we think he’s due for a loss here as the Cubs simply haven’t been good over the last month and are 2-10 L12 as underdogs. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We went with the White Sox last night and thanks to a five-run rally in the eighth, they won 9-5. That came on the heels of these teams splitting a doubleheader on Monday. But as we said in yesterday’s analysis, there’s no denying who the better team is here. The White Sox continue to flourish at home where they are 35-16 this year. As a home favorite of -125 to -175, they are 19-3. It seems as if the oddsmakers haven’t yet learned their lesson as the AL Central leaders are again priced in that range and it’s simply too low when facing a Twins team that is down 26.3 units on the season. Only Arizona has been a worse team to bet on. Minnesota is 3-12 vs. the White Sox this year and 1-8 in Chicago. The White Sox have won 9 of 11 overall and are one of only five teams to have a winning percentage greater than .600. We don’t think Michael Pineda can keep the Twins in this game. The team has lost his last four starts with him allowing 15 runs on 29 hits in just 16.6 innings. Dylan Cease had 10 strikeouts in his last start for the White Sox and it was also the fourth time in five starts he allowed three runs or less. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Seattle losing the DH in this series is somewhat mitigated by the fact they are playing at Coors Field, traditionally the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of MLB. But this is not a particularly strong offensive team. The Mariners come into tonight with a team batting average of .219. That’s the lowest average in baseball. Their on base percentage (.295) is also baseball’s worst. So is their OPS (.674). They will be facing a pitcher in German Marquez that has no problems pitching in the Mile High City. Marquez has allowed no more than one run in eight of his last ten starts. One of the other two saw him give up only two runs. The one exception where he was blasted actually came on the road (at Cincinnati). It’s five straight starts at home for Marquez, allowing two or less runs. His last three starts overall have resulted in a 0.82 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. He’s allowed only 12 hits his last five starts and just three runs! This is a pitcher you want to be on tonight. The Mariners are kind of lucky to be over .500 right now as their run differential of -51 is indicative of a team that should be well below the Mendoza Line. The Rockies are 32-19 at home this year and 7-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. They are 7-3 vs. the American League while Seattle is 4-8 vs. the National League. With Marquez starting, this should be an easy win for the home side against Marco Gonzales, who comes in with a 6.98 road ERA. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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07-20-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO The Twins and White Sox played a doubleheader on Monday and both teams picked up a win. Minnesota won the first game 3-2 and then the White Sox struck back with a 5-3 win in the nightcap. Both games went down to the wire as Minnesota’s win came in extra innings while Chicago won on a walkoff home run. Despite yesterday’s split, there can be no denying who the better team is here. The Sox lead the division by 8.5 games and are one of only five teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. They’ve also won 8 of 10. Minnesota got swept in Detroit to start the second half of what has been a tremendously disappointing season. The Twins are -25.3 units, making them the second worst bet in all of baseball (only Arizona is worse). This pitching matchup of Ober vs. Keuchel seems to favor the home team even more. Ober has a 6.57 ERA vs. the White Sox. Keuchel has a 3.91 ERA vs. the Twins. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-19-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -126 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Six games separate Boston and Toronto in the American League East with the Red Sox ahead. But the Blue Jays are the ones coming into this series with a little more momentum (i.e. a four-game win streak) and it’s also important to note their run differential for the season is much better than Boston’s. Whereas the Red Sox have a +51 run differential, the Blue Jays are +95. Boston might have the best record in the division (Toronto in third place), but the roles are swapped when it comes to run differential. Only five teams have a better run differential than Toronto. So what we’re saying is, expect them to treat Monday’s series opener as a “statement-type game.” Boston has lost its last two games, including the Sunday nighter 9-1 to the Yankees. Toronto played a doubleheader on Sunday and won both games in shutout fashion, 5-0 and 10-0. It was the first time they ever did that in franchise history. This is the final homestand in Buffalo before they get to head back to Toronto at the end of the month. The “nomadic lifestyle” has actually treated the Blue Jays fairly well as they’ve averaged 5.8 runs/game at home - whether it’s Dunedin or Buffalo. We’re highly skeptical of Boston right now as the pitching has been bad of late AND they’re not hitting. Pivetta, who is starting Monday, has a 9.00 ERA in two starts vs. Toronto this year. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-18-21 | Dodgers -165 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -165 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the DODGERS Back on Opening Day, the Rockies defeated the Dodgers 8-5. They did so as +185 underdogs on the money line against Clayton Kershaw. The teams have played eight times since Opening Day and the Dodgers have won all eight. The latest win was last night by a score of 9-2. Max Muncy and Mookie Betts each had four hits, which was the same number the entire Rockies lineup produced. Walker Buehler was dealing from the start for LA as he won for the 10th time here in 2021. David Price will start Sunday’s game. Price will be making just his fifth start of the year and has logged only 9 ⅓ innings. But we are not overly concerned with that as he figures to get lots of run support today. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Dodgers have scored six or more runs in six of their last seven games. The Rockies are obviously better at home and Jon Gray isn’t a bad starter. But they are also not even close to being the same caliber of team as the Dodgers, who have won 40 of their last 58 games. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-18-21 | Brewers -130 v. Reds | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE There probably isn’t a starting pitcher with a more misleading team start record than the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes. Burnes has started 15 times this year and the Brewers are only 7-8 in those games. But that completely undersells just how well he has pitched. Burnes has both a 2.26 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both those numbers are among the top five in baseball. The fact he was selected as an All Star tells you all you need to know. We look for Burnes to lead Milwaukee to a sweep of Cincinnati on Sunday. The Brewers have been outstanding in day games this year with a 28-12 record. They are also 28-18 on the road after yesterday’s 11 inning victory. That’s a better record than they have at home. The lead in the NL Central has now grown to six games over the Reds. A big reason for that is the Brewers are giving up just 3.4 runs/game on the road. Burnes’ numbers are even better on the road (1.98 ERA, 0.79 WHIP). Overall, he’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts. So his record ought to be much better. Sonny Gray has pitched only 12 innings in the last month for the Reds, thus he’s far less trustworthy in this spot. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-17-21 | Giants -116 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO The Giants won yesterday by a score of 7-2. They got four strong innings from emergency starter Logan Webb while Mike Yastrzemski homered twice. No team boasts a better record than San Francisco’s 58-32 and they’ll need to continue winning as the Dodgers remain just two games back. Luckily, they are facing the Cardinals, who are 44-47 but have been outscored by 45 runs. The Giants do have to face Kwang Hyun-Kim, who has not allowed a run in his last 13 innings of work. But they’ve got Anthony DeSclafani starting and he not only has a 13-5 team start record but also a 0.99 WHIP for the season.In his last seven starts, DeSclafani is 6-1 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. That’s excellent. He threw six scoreless innings in his last start. It was the third time in his last six starts he didn’t allow a run, one of those being a complete game. St. Louis is just 8-20 its last 28 games as an underdog. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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07-11-21 | Rockies v. Padres -173 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -173 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO San Diego had no answers at the plate for German Marquez and thus lost 3-0 to Colorado last night. Marquez is good, but that’s an embarrassing loss for the Padres to a team that is 8-34 on the road. It was also their first time losing to the Rockies this season. With no Marquez to worry about Sunday, we will take the Padres again as Jon Gray, who starts today’s game for the Rockies, has an 0-6 team start record on the road. The current road trip is the 1st time all season that Colorado has won multiple times. They have NEVER won consecutive road games at any point in 2021. So this one seems pretty easy. Look for the Padres offense to supply Ryan Weathers with more than enough support. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-11-21 | White Sox -172 v. Orioles | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX As you would have expected, the White Sox have not had much trouble with the Orioles this weekend. They won the first two games at Camden Yards by scores of 12-1 and 8-3. The AL Central leaders have won four in a row and have already clinched the biggest division lead in all of baseball going into the All Star Break. So you should expect them to finish the sweep Sunday. Baltimore is guaranteed the worst record among American League teams in the first half. They are 28-60 and a lock to finish in last place once again in the AL East. It’s not just the last two days where Chicago has had Baltimore’s number. They are 6-0 in the season series. The Orioles have only managed 11 runs in those six losses. All things considered, the White Sox should be a much bigger favorite. Dylan Cease will start Sunday. He did struggle on Monday vs. Minnesota. But he did not struggle vs. Baltimore back on May 27th. There he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts while allowing one run and four hits. The White Sox have scored 38 runs off Orioles pitching in the six games so far and are likely to put many more on the board today against Spenser Watkins, who is making just his second career start. “We’re in dire need of rotation help,” said manager Brandon Hyde after Saturday’s loss. Don’t think Watkins gives it to them. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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07-10-21 | Rockies v. Padres -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO This is a mismatch. San Diego beat Colorado 4-2 on Friday. It was the second straight day where the Padres rallied to win. Last night wasn’t nearly as exciting as the 9-8 win against Washington on Thursday. That one saw them come back from an 8-0 deficit, tying the largest rally in team history. The Padres have now won nine straight home games over the Rockies, who are a miserable 7-34 on the road this year. So the fact that SD had to rally to win last night doesn’t scare us at all. Expect them not to fall into an early hole tonight because of the fact Joe Musgrove is starting. Musgrove, responsible for one of MLB’s no-hitters this year, continues to pace the rotation with a 0.97 WHIP. He has a 2.89 ERA at home. When Musgrove faced the Rockies back on 5/19 (it was here in SD), he shut them out for seven innings, allowed just two hits and had 11 strikeouts. The Padres’ bullpen was pretty flawless last night. So when they are called upon here, there won’t be any drop off from Musgrove. The Rockies score just 2.8 runs/game away from home, a big reason for that terrible record of theirs. German Marquez has pitched very well of late for Colorado. But he has a 1-5 team start record on the road. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON We like Boston here as Thursday was an off-day for them while Philadelphia had to wrap up a four-game series with Chicago. The off day isn’t the only reason we like the Red Sox though. They are 27-17 both at home and on the road and are the current AL East leaders with a 54-34 record. They did lose Tuesday and Wednesday to the Angels. But this is a team that’s dominated Interleague play so far (a 10-2 record) and is 36-19 in night games. They also haven’t lost three in a row since early June. Their longest losing streak all year has been three games and that’s happened only three times. Since starting the season 0-3, the Red Sox are 8-2 when off back to back losses. So it’s a good spot to take them today. The team Philadelphia just took three of four from (Cubs) is in a terrible way right now. The Phillies are still just 18-27 on the road. Vince Velasquez has a 1-3 TSR his last four starts overall and his last two starts on the road have seen him surrender 10 runs in seven innings. Garrett Richards has also struggled for Boston, but we trust he’ll get better run support in this one. The team is 4-2 in Richards’ last six starts. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-09-21 | White Sox -131 v. Orioles | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO This is a shockingly low price considering the two teams involved. You’d have to consider the White Sox as one of the top American League teams. They’ve basically led the AL Central the whole way and currently enjoy a 7.5 game lead over the rest of their division. That’s the largest lead for any current division leader. They have a 51-33 record and a +99 run differential. They did not play Thursday after taking two in a row from the Twins. Baltimore is the worst team in the American League. They are 30 games under .500 and have a -120 run differential. They got rained out yesterday, which probably spared them another loss. Even with several players still injured, the White Sox have a stronger lineup than the Orioles. They swept them back on Memorial Day Weekend, taking all four games at Guaranteed Rate Field by multiple runs. Look for more of the same Friday. Dallas Keuchel is off a rough start, but has a 3.23 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Baltimore. Jorge Lopez, the Orioles starter for this game, hasn’t been good at all. He has a 4-13 team start record and is 0-5 his L5 starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have had their problems with Miami in this series, losing all three games so far. They’ll look to avoid the sweep this afternoon behind Jose Urias. He is 10-3 in his 17 starts (13-4 TSR) with a 3.81 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. Numbers on the road - where he has gone 7-2 - are even better. The first two losses of the series saw the Dodgers go down by one run each time. Yesterday was 9-6 final decided on a walk-off HR by Jesus Aguilar. The Marlins have now walked off two days in a row. So it’s not as if the Dodgers have necessarily been dominated, or are even playing poorly. Remember that this is the team that carries the best run differential in the National League (+113) and is one of only four teams - in all of baseball - with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Miami is better than its record, but still in last place in the NL East. July has been the worst month for starter Sandy Alcantara in terms of ERA (4.95). That’s for his career. The Dodgers had won nine in a row coming into this series. Only two times this season have they lost four in a row. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-07-21 | Phillies -131 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies have taken the first two games at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have now lost 11 in a row overall. Yesterday’s final score ended up being 15-10, but the Phillies initially led 7-0 and 15-4. That was after a 13-3 win on Monday. Those kind of scores and an 11-game losing streak pretty much “paints the picture” and is all you really need to know about what’s taking place in the Windy City right now. In 17 of the last 22 games, the Cubs have not scored more than three runs. Yesterday was only the third instance (in those last 22 games) of them scoring more than four runs and that’s only because of some late, meaningless damage in the final three innings. We don’t see the Cubs doing much offensively early in tonight’s game as they are set to face Zack Wheeler. Over 17 starts, Wheeler has a 2.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has not allowed a single run in four of his last five starts and all four saw him go at least six innings. The task for Cubs starter Alec Mills is tough as the Phillies have homered eight times in two games. The Cubs have been outscored 83-35 during this losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-07-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We went with the Rangers yesterday, even though they had a starter (Dane Dunning) who came in with a 4-12 team start record. They beat the Tigers 10-5. So we’ve got little hesitation selecting them again today as they hand Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) the ball for the series finale. Gibson has undoubtedly been the Rangers best starter in 2021. In addition to having not dropped a single decision, he has 12 quality starts to his name and is working on a streak of nine straight (starts) where he’s allowed two runs or less. At home, Gibson has an 8-0 TSR, 1.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He is the American League’s ERA leader. Detroit’s leadoff hitter is injured and they could only muster up five hits yesterday. We think they’ve been pretty lucky to have scored 12 runs in the two games so far at Arlington. Casey Mize, who is being limited to no more than three innings, will start this game for the Tigers. He’s going to have to deal with John Hicks, who has four homers in four games since being called up. Texas is 7-1 L8 as home favorites and has the clear edge in starting pitching today. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-06-21 | Yankees -144 v. Mariners | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees could really use a win here as they are stuck in fourth place in the AL East and only a game over .500. They split a doubleheader with the Mets on Sunday, but have dropped seven of nine overall. Seattle keeps defying the odds with a better than .500 record as they’ve given up a lot more runs than they have scored this season. They have a better record than the Yankees, but the oddsmakers are not fooled by that and neither are we. A big problem for the Yankees recently has been the bullpen, specifically Aroldis Chapman. But we like the matchup of Jameson Taillon going against a Seattle lineup that hits only .207 at home. Taillon has won his last two starts, both in blowout fashion. There was an 8-1 win over Kansas City and 11-3 win over the Angels. Taillon has been much better when pitching outside the division (as those last two starts show). Justus Sheffield has not had a good year for the Mariners and things appear to be getting worse as his ERA and WHIP are now 5.75 and 1.70. He’s made one career start vs. the Yankees and it did not go well. He allowed five runs in 4.3 innings. The Yankees are 21-5 their last 26 games in Seattle. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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07-06-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -170 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TEXAS The Rangers got beat 7-3 in Monday’s series opener. Three errors and a failure to really get anything going against Tigers starter Wily Peralta doomed them. But we think they’ll bounce back on Tuesday when they get to face the struggling Jose Urena. June was very unkind to Urena as he went 0-4 with a 12.50 ERA. Most damning of all is that he pitched a total of just 18 innings and gave up 28 runs! Urena did not factor into the decision the last time he pitched, a game the Tigers won 9-4 in Cleveland. The reason Urena did not factor into the decision is he allowed FOUR home runs! He was quite fortunate that all four were solo shots. Texas homered twice with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night. Hopefully, they can homer in more meaningful spots tonight. On the mound, Dane Dunning is still having his innings limited. But he did toss four scoreless innings last week vs. Oakland. Dunning has a 79-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. One Tigers’ hitter that he won’t have to worry about is leadoff man Daz Cameron, who sprained his toe before Monday’s game. His replacement Akil Baddoo went 0 for 5 in the leadoff spot last night. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-05-21 | Dodgers -153 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD Miami is a team we faded on Sunday and they ended up losing 8-7 (in 10 innings) to Atlanta. In the analysis, we talked about how the Marlins had been held to three runs or less in 12 of their previous 16 games. Well, they broke out for seven (runs) yesterday and still lost. The Dodgers are a team we routinely take and that’s for good reason. They are one of baseball’s best. They made it a four-game sweep of Washington on Sunday with a 5-1 win. That was LA’s ninth win in a row overall. So they are firing on all cylinders right now as they send Walker Buehler to the mound this evening. Buehler has an 11-5 team start record this year. Personally, he’s gone 8-1 and has a 0.90 WHIP. His numbers are a little bit better on the road, but regardless of where he’s pitched, Buehler is working on a streak of nine consecutive quality starts. Trevor Rogers looks like a fine option for Miami but the problem is he’s up against a juggernaut. The Dodgers offense averages a full run more per game than the Marlins. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-04-21 | Marlins v. Braves -185 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Miami (35-46) isn’t having a good season but they are 6-3 vs. Atlanta following a 3-2 win last night. The Braves did have more hits Saturday. Neither team has done much scoring in this particular series as the Braves won the opener 1-0 on Friday. Last night proved to be their sixth failed attempt at getting to .500 on the year. Still they’ve won 10 of 17 and three of their last four games. Charlie Morton on the mound means the Marlins probably aren’t going to score many runs today either. Morton has a 1.31 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his last three starts. All three starts were quality as Morton allowed just three runs (all in the last one) and nine hits. He had 25 strikeouts and only three walks. A 20 ⅔ scoreless inning streak was snapped in his last start. The Braves actually lost that game, 4-3 to the Mets, though Morton did not factor into the decision. He has a 6-2 team start record in his last eight starts. Miami has been held to three runs or less in 12 of its previous 16 games. So all we need here is for the Braves’ hitters to break out to a reasonable degree and we like their chances as they are averaging 5.4 runs/gamme at home. Zach Thompson has just four starts under his belt and this will be Atlanta’s second time seeing him. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-03-21 | Dodgers -189 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA You get the feeling that if Washington was going to beat the Dodgers this weekend, yesterday was the best shot. They had Max Scherzer on the mound and a 3-1 lead through six. But the bullpen really let the Nationals down on Friday, giving up a nine-run 7th. While it’s true that we were on the Nats last night, Clayton Kershaw going here for the Dodgers means it’s time to “abandon ship” and get on the other side in a hurry. Kershaw is having another solid year with a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team is only 10-7 in his 17 starts, but easily won the last one (9-1 over the Cubs) with Kershaw striking out 13 and allowing one run in eight innings. That was his fourth straight quality start. The Dodgers have now won seven in a row overall and the five runs given up yesterday were the most in any game during the streak. They’ve allowed only 15 runs total in the seven games. The Nationals' task of scoring runs against Kershaw is now even harder as they lost Kyle Schwarber to an injury yesterday. Schwarber had homered 16 times in June, a franchise record. Washington’s starter Paolo Espino has looked good so far, but it’s a small sample size (just three starts) and he hasn’t faced a lineup like the Dodgers (#1 in NL in scoring) yet. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-02-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals -103 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON This might be as good a time as any to fade the Dodgers. We are getting Max Scherzer starting at home for the Nationals at a very discounted price. Los Angeles did win Thursday’s series opener 6-2. But that was a rain-shortened game. It was called after five innings and the difference was a Muncy grand slam for the Dodgers. Washington had the early 2-1 lead going into the fifth. While it was the sixth straight win for the Dodgers, all of them before yesterday were at home. The Nationals came into this series on their own four-game win streak and 14-3 in their last 17 games. As good as Urias has been for LA, Scherzer has better numbers. Scherzer has made 10 straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs. In the month of June, he went 3-0 and allowed just three runs in four starts. He only allowed 12 hits! Let’s not forget about the other “hot” player for the Nats, that being Kyle Schwarber. He’d homered 12 times in the previous 10 games before yesterday. He didn’t get a full nine innings to extend that streak. Urias has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. This is a big revenge game for the home team as they are 0-4 vs. the Dodgers this season. If there were ever a spot where you’d take them to beat the reigning World Series champs, it would be this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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07-01-21 | Mets -157 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We shouldn’t have to sell you too much on the idea of betting Jacob deGrom. The Mets have won the last eight times he has started and he hasn’t allowed a run in five of those outings. He’s allowed only four runs total in the eight starts and only six all season! Yes, this is an all-time great season as deGrom has a record-setting 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP. He hasn’t even allowed a single run on the road. We could think of no one better to be on the mound as the Mets look to rebound from a humiliating 20-2 loss to the Braves last night. In retrospect, Atlanta probably should have “saved” some of that scoring for today. deGrom did allow two runs in the last start, but that was after allowing zero runs in five consecutive starts. Honestly, it’s just as simple as betting the best pitcher in baseball in this one. This will be just the third time in his last 11 starts that deGrom isn’t a favorite of -235 or higher on the money line. The other two were both against San Diego and the Mets won those. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on OAK Texas upset Oakland 5-4 last night. That didn’t sit well with us as we played the A’s. The home team scored first (in the bottom of the first), then immediately retook the lead in the bottom of the fourth after allowing the Rangers to tie the game up in the top half of that inning. But from there, Texas took control. The visitors scored one run in the 5th, one in the 6th and two more in the 9th. Oakland tried to rally with two of their own in the bottom of the 9th, but came up one short. It was the Rangers’ first win all year following an off-day (previously 0-10) and the A’s first loss (previously 10-0) in that very situation. The A’s - despite being just 3-7 in their L10 games - remain monster favorites on the money line Wednesday and we can’t help but think they will bounce back. The pitching matchup for tonight is a rematch of a game played last Thursday with Allard going for Texas and Bassitt going for the A’s. Bassitt won the first go-around by allowing just one run in seven innings. Allard allowed four in six innings. Bassitt is currently riding a career-best eight game win streak as he has not dropped a decision since early April. Don’t overthink this one too much. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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06-29-21 | Rangers v. A's -176 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -176 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The trends are absolutely incredible when these two teams take the field after a day off. Texas is 0-10 this year after a day off. Oakland is 10-0! Neither played Monday, so guess who we’ll be going with? While it’s only June, it’s hard to think the Rangers haven’t already thrown the towel in on 2021. In last place in the AL West, an eight-game gap exists between them and the next closest team. They aren’t going to make that up. While the Rangers did manage to split four games with the A’s last week, that was in Arlington. Things have been rough on the road this year for the Rangers as they have gone 10-27. Mike Foltynewicz will start Tuesday’s game and he’s not having a great season. The team is just 5-10 with him on the mound and his numbers on the road are very bad (7.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). He did win his last start, against the A’s, last week. But he’d been shelled in the three previous starts. James Kaprielian will start opposite Foltynewicz for the second time in a row. Kaprielian had a near identical statline to Foltynewicz in the game last Wednesday. He allowed two runs and five hits (one fewer than Foltynewicz) in six innings. Key though is Kapriellian has been much more consistent in 2021. He hasn’t allowed a run in either start here at home, going 13 innings. The A’s are 17-5 as a home favorite of -175 or more. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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