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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -143 v. Rockies | 6-9 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (BLOOD-BATH) At this price, despite being on the road, Wade Miley and the Brewers will be a popular wager today. Typically we are a contrarian service, but enough is enough for the Brewers here today who have lost three straight, including the first two here at Coors. Note though that Milwaukee is 8-2 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. I think the Rockies take a step back here today facing Brewers' ace Wade Miley, who is 3-1 with a 1.86 ERA. He'll be opposed b Connor Seabold, who is 0-0 with a 5.27 ERA. Better hurry to get down on this one before the line moves any higher; the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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05-03-23 | Cubs -182 v. Nationals | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
8* Cubs (SPECIAL) Jake Irvin will be making his major league debut tonight for the Nationals: "He's stretched out to about 90 pitches," Nationals manager Davey Martinez said. "So we're going to give him an opportunity to come out here and start for us and see what he does and see where he goes." We say this one favors Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.29 ERA) and the hungry visiting side. Chicago has lost three of his last four starts, so he's a golden opportunity for the Cubs to provide their "ace" with some support finally. Considering the starting pitching talent discrepancy, this line could/should in fact be larger in our opinion; the value here does indeed swing to Chicago! AAA Sports |
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05-03-23 | Mets -152 v. Tigers | 5-6 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Mets (BLOWOUT) Just a complete mismatch on the mound here between these starters in the first game of the double-header. The Mets have had a day off, while the Tigers have had two days off. New York is 16-13 overall and 10-7 on the road, while Detroit is 10-17 overall, including just 5-7 at home. The Mets hand the bal to Joey Lucchesi, who is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA, while the home side counters with Joey Wentz, who is 0-3 with a ballooned 6.45 ERA. Look for New York and Lucchesi to take advantage and set the early tone in this first game; lay the price, the play is indeed on New York! AAA Sports |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -145 v. Royals | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We don't mind laying chalk on a road favorite when we believe our "play on" side should/could in fact be a much larger one. And that's the case here for sure. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Wells, who is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA, and he'll be going up against Ryan Yarbrough, who is 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA. At 19-9, the Orioles are out to their best start since 1997. Wells does actually lead the league with a minuscule 0.724 WHIP. He's made two career starts vs. the Royals and won both. The Royals' 7-22 record matches a franchise-worst start of all time. Yarbrough has had success vs. the Orioles in the past, but that was then and this is now. The current form of these starters plays a huge role in the outcome of this contest; the play is on Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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04-28-23 | Yankees v. Rangers -176 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
10* Rangers (AL GOY) This is the second game of a four-game set between the Yankees and the Rangers. Thursday sees Gerrit Cole go up against Andrew Heaney, and we're releasing this selection before that game has even started. MLB is one of the only sports where each and every game has to be looked at individually, mainly because of the starting pitching aspect. This particular play is based almost entirely on the starting pitching matchup. The Rangers enter this series eager to bounce back after getting swept in three games by the Reds: "There's nothing to be concerned about," Rangers' coach Bruce Bochy said. "I mean, we've got a lot of baseball left. These guys will bounce back. We have a tough team ahead of us, so we will have to play our best ball, but no, no one is concerned, and we will continue to get better." But as stated off the top, this one is based upon the starting pitchers. Clarke Schmidt is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA for the Yankees, while Jacob deGrom is 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA for the Rangers. Look for the Rangers' new super-star starter to rise to the occassion here and get the better of his old cross-town rival; lay the price, the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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04-26-23 | Marlins v. Braves -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL BOB) Atlanta has taken the first two games of this series by scores of 11-0 and 7-4. We can expect the defending champs to keep the foot on the gas here in the third game of this four game set. Despite this being the Marlins ace in Sandy Alcantara, who was lights out last year, but who hasn't quite lived up to those expectations this season yet, I think we're getting great value on the defending champs here at home. They hand the ball to Bryce Elder, who is 2-0 with a minuscule 1.14 ERA and a sharp 23 to 7 strikeout to walk ratio. He had a hard luck no-decision last time outm, going six innings and allowing one run with six strikeouts vs. the hard-hitting Astros. Alcantara though as eluded to earlier hasn't been in the same form this season as he was last year, as so far he's 1-2 with a 5.47 ERA. In his last outing he went six innings and allowed five runs in a 5-0 loss at home to the Diamondbacks (Previous to that he was shelled for nine runs over four innings in a 15-3 loss at Philadelphia. At this time of the year, "current form" is crucial and as Bob Barker used to say as well, the Price Is Right on this one for sure; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-25-23 | Tigers v. Brewers -167 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After losing two of their last three, including two in a row, including yesterday's series opener here vs. the lowly Tigers, we like the Brewers with their ace on the mound, to bounce back tonight. Spencer Turnbull is just 1-3 with a 7.85 ERA for the Tigers, and he's severely overmatched here by Eric Lauer, who is 3-1 with a 4.30 ERA. Note that the Brewers are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; lay the price with confidence, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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04-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) After yesterday's series opening 6-1 loss yesterday, we're expecting Gerrit Cole and company to bounce back here and set the tone early in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Alek Manoah, who is coming off an incredible season, but who is just 1-1 with a 6.98 ERA this year. Cole is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA. Cole is back on track showing his elite form, while regression seems imminent for Manoah this season. Also note that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-21-23 | Tigers v. Orioles -170 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) The discrepancy in talent and form between these starting pitchers absolutely justifies in laying this larger price in my opinion. Tyler Wells is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA for the Orioles. In his most recent outing he gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the hard-hitting White Sox. Detroit is just 3-6 on the road and it counters with Michael Lorenzen, who is 0-0 with a 13.50 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over four innings vs. the Giants in his season debut on Saturday. We don't love Wells or anything overall as a starter, but we sure do love him here in this matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Orioles! AAA Sports |
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04-20-23 | Angels v. Yankees -155 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
8* Yankees (MISMATCH) We have a couple of really good starters going head-to-head here, but we say that the "home field advantage" will prove to be the difference-maker in the end. LA won the opener by a score of 5-2, before dropping yesterday's contest 3-2. Note that Shohei Ohtani has looked human vs. the Yanks, going just 13 of 67 lifetime at the plate, which translates to a .194 average. He's also hitting just .140 (6 for 43) at Yankee Stadium. Sandoval is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA for the Angels, while Cortes Jr. is 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA for the Yanks. Cortes Jr. though is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. Look for the Yanks to build off yesterday's victory and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-19-23 | Blue Jays v. Astros -109 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Astros (ASSASSIN) The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA after three games. Berrios was crushed on the road over his first two starts by allowing 14 runs and 15 hits, but he did look better in his last start at home against the Rays by allowing one run over five innings to earn his first victory. Last year Berrios was just 5-5 with a 6.40 ERA on the road so I think he's going to struggle again here in this difficult road venue. Houston counters with Luis Garcia, who is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA afer three starts. The slow start is surprising considering Garcia was 11-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. So the bottom line here is we think Garcia is going to finally settle down, as we're not overreacting to the early results. We also really do think that the Jays continue to be overvalued early on in the season here, especially on the road. Great value on the hungrier home side; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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04-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -176 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (MISMATCH) The Cards have lost the first two games of this series, but we're expecting them to salvage the finale with what we believe is the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them today. Arizona returns home for a four-game set with San Diego tomorrow. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA, while the home side counters with Jake Woodford, who is 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA. Bumgarner is 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA in 15 career starts vs. St. Louis, while Woodford is coming off a gem, allowing seven hits and no runs and striking out three in a no-decision to the Pirates. Expect Woodford to get the better of his veteran counterpart and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-18-23 | Cubs -170 v. A's | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD-BATH on the Cubs. The A's have yet to see one of their starting pitchers win this year, and I don't think it's happening today either. The home side hands the ball to Ken Waldichuk, who is 0-2 with a 10.20 ERA, while the visitors counter with Marcus Stroman, who is 2-1 with a 1.00 ERA. Oakland has lost five straight, including yesterday's contest 10-1. Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in six career starts vs. Oakland and we expect him to easily deliver the goods in this spot; lay the price with confidence, the play is Chicago! AAA Sports |
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04-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -160 | 8-7 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) Two decent starting pitchers here, but after yesterday's loss, I like the Cardinals to bounce back here at home on Tuesday. The D-Backs start Drey Jameson, who is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA, who has earned both of his wins coming out of the bullpen this year. Now starting, regression is imminent in my opinion. Jordan Montogmery is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA for St. Louis. So far he has 17 K's and five walks over 18 1/3's frames of work: "I'm going to go out there and try to eat up as many innings (as I can), save our bullpen, throw a hundred and whatever pitches," Montgomery said. "It's a little early now, but I want to be a horse going out there, give them 110, 115, every game." Lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -144 | 6-3 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Cardinals (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here, but it's a matchup that favors the home side in my opinion. The D-Backs hand the ball to Merril Kelly, who is 0-2 with a 2.93 ERA, while the home side counters with Jack Flaherty, who is 1-1 with a 1.76 ERA. Flaherty allowed one run over six innings in a victory at Colorado last time out. He's 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts vs. Arizona. Kelly has struggled with control over his last two starts, walking eight batters over his last 11 innings. While 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Cards, "recent performance" is the big indicator of regression for Kelly in this instance. Look for the hungry Cards to keep the foot on the gas in this favorable matchup and lay the price with confidence; the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-16-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cardinals (CENTRAL DIVISION GOM) St. Louis had a three-game win streak going until yesterday's 6-3 upset loss as a -183 favorite. I like the Cards to bounce back here in the finale of this four game series though on Sunday. The Pirates hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA so far. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas, who is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA after alowing six runs over five innings at Coors Field in his last outing: "In some odd parallel universe, I'm not super upset with today," said Mikolas afterwards. "The team won. The offense really picked me up. We made some great defensive plays. This is a team game. I didn't pitch as well as I would have liked to or anyone would have liked me to, but some days you have bad games. I don't get the win, the team does. The way we've been scuffling out of the gate, that's just the most important thing." St. Louis was an uncharacteristic 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in Saturday's loss and it left nine runners on base. Don't expect that to happen again here. Look for Mikolas to settle down at home and for the Cardinals to salvage the finale of this four-game set; lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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04-16-23 | Twins v. Yankees -154 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* Yankees (ASSASSIN) Minnesota took the first two games of this four-game series, but the Yanks bounced back with a 6-1 win yesterday. I expect another blowout victory here in the finale now, as the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this mid-sized price. Gerrit Cole is 3-0 with a tiny 1.40 ERA for New York and he has to be feeling confident here in this matchup, as he's 4-0 with a 3.21 ERA in five career starts vs. Minnesota. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA for the Twins. He's looked solid in the early going, but the sample size is just too small. Look for Cole to take advantage; this price should/could in fact be much larger, which swings the value in favor of New York in this one! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Cubs v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (ASSASSIN) I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, who is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Texas in his last outing. So far Taillon has been a disaster this year and I think he's going to struggle here in this difficult road venue. The home side counter with Michael Grove, who is 0-1 with a 14.73 ERA after allowing nine runs over three innings after coming in in relief vs. Arizona last time out. This will be a bullpen game here for Grove and the home side, which is also an advantage that LA enjoys over Chicago. There is no starting pitching advantage here, and that swings the value to the hard-hitting and much deeper home side; lay the price with confidence, the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Guardians -144 v. Nationals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* Guardians (IL BOB) Ultimately I believe that Zach Plesac and the visiting side could/shoud in fact be much bigger favorites in this spot. Plesac has so far gotten out to a slower start, going 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA after allowing two runs over seevn innings along with six K's in an unfortunate setback to the Mariners in his last outing (note that Plesac owned a 5.29 ERA in all night games last year, compared to just 3.28 ERA in all day games. The Nationals counter with the erratic Chad Kuhl, who is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Colorado last time out. Kuhl was a pedestrian 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA at home last year and I believe he'll struggle in this difficult matchup; lay the price, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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04-15-23 | Mets -175 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mets (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) The talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers absolutely makes the visiting side worth the price of admission in this one. Carlos Carrasco is coming off a big bounce-back season for the Mets, but he'll be looking to bounce back this year now after starting 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. He most recently allowed six runs over five innings in a loss to the Fish. Carrasco finished 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA on the road last year and he couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face here the anemic A's. The home side counters with the erratic Shintaro Fujinami, who is 0-2 with a 17.55 ERA after allowing five runs over four innings in a loss to Tampa Ba last time out. Look for Carrasco to be the one to finally settle down here and lay this price with confidence; the play is the Mets! AAA Sports |
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04-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Marlins (SPECIAL) Miami lost the opener of it three game series in Philadelphia by a score of 15-3, but then it won the next two games. Now back home, I like the Fish to keep the momentum rolling here. The D-Backs are 8-5, but they hand the ball to erratic veteran Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA, most recently going four innings and getting shelled for five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Miami's offense has hit Bumgarner hard as well (Luis Arraez is 2-3, Stallings is hitting .429 in 7 ABs, Garcia is 2-6, and Hampson is hitting .222 in 27 ABs.) Miami goes with Trevor Rogers, wh is 0-2 with a 6.0) ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings to the Mets. Both starters now catch a break facing inferior lineups for the first time. Miami has been better offensivel though and it's always crushed Mad-Bum. Good value here on Rogers bouncing back at home; lay the price, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I like the Phillies to bounce back here after three straight losses. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. The Phillies go with Taijuan Walker (0-1, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Connor Overton (0-0, 10.13.) The Reds have somehow managed to win both of Overton's starts despite allowing nine runs over 14 innings of work. Walker on the other hand is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA vs. the Reds, while Overton is fortunate to have two no-decisions vs. the Phillies, as he's posted a combied 10.80 ERA in those contests. Look for Philadelphia to "dig deep" here with the superior starter on the hill; la the price, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -175 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
10* Rays (AL EAST GOY) I bet underdogs. I bet totals. I also bet favorites. I'm never afraid to "lay chalk," especially when I believe that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the case here. Boston hands the ball to the erratic Corey Kluber, who is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA after allowing one run over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh. Note that Kluber was just 3-7 with a 5.08 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with the red hot Jeffrey Springs who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rays after going seven innings and scattering three hits with seven K's in an 11-0 win over Oakland. "Recent performance" is HUGE here in my break down of this contest. I look for Springs to keep the good times rolling here, as Tampa punishes Kluber early and often; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Rays! AAA Sports |
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04-12-23 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. In the early going in baseball, a good place to start to break down a matchup is with the starting pitching, nd in this case, not only is it the starting point for me, but it's also the ending point. I'm basing this pick on recent form and feel that Sonny Gray and the home side could or should in fact be larger favorites in this spot. The White Sox opened with a slim 4-3 series win, before the Twins responded with a 4-3 win yesterday. So far White Sox' starter Lucas Gioltio has struggled. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA after two starts, most recently he lasted just four innings and allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs in a 13-9 loss to the lowly Pirates on the road. Last year Giolito was good on the road, but this season after two starts he's been terrible. Gray though is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA after two starts to go along with a 14 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio. Most recently he went seven innings and allowed one run here at home over the Astros. That's saying something for sure in my books. Gray is locked in and on top form and at this price, I think he's well worth the price of admission; lay the price, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Dodgers -141 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (END OF NIGHT BLOWOUT) I think that Dustin May and the Dodgers are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Ma is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA after his second straight strong start, going six innings and allowing one run with five K's in a victory over Arizona. May looks to return to his 2021 form after an injury shortened 2022, in which he finished 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Wood, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after going three innings and allowing three runs in a fortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox in his season debut. Wood was pedestrian last year, including just 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA at home. These divisional contests are always exciting, but most lop-sided. In all honesty, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much larger. Great value here on the undervalued visiting side; the play is LA! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -149 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BOB) I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. Nola is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after back-to-back shaky starts. In his last one he did go six innings and struck out five, while allowing three runs though in a no-decision vs. the Yanks. Nola now returns home for the first time this year, and I expect the veteran to be at his best in this one (note that he was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA at home last season.) The visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA after back-to-back strong outings, ost recently going seven innings and allowing one run in a win over Minnesota. I expect Luzardo to come back down to Earth here finally, while at the same time, all signs point to Nola now stepping up and taking advantage here; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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04-11-23 | Astros -171 v. Pirates | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -171 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
10* Astros (IL GOM) I think that Christian Javier and the Astros are well worth the price of admission on Tuesday. Javier is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA after going six innings and allowing one run and striking out five in a victory over Detroit. Javier was great on the road last year, finishing 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA after going seven innings and allowing one run in a victory over Boston. Keller was just 1-7 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. After B2B decent road showings, I think Keller regresses here. Houston's pen is superior and so is Javier, so lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on the Astros! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | Royals v. Rangers -165 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rangers (ASSASSIN) I think that Andrew Heaney and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Royals hand the ball to veteran Zack Greinke, who is 0-2 with a 2.38 ERA. Heaney is 0-1 with a 23.63 ERA. Suffice it to say, I look for Heaney's second start of the season to be much better. This is a matchup that the doctor ordered for Heaney, as the KC offense has been inconsistent at best. Note that KC is just 15-37 in its last 52 meeting here. The Rangers are also 4-0 i their last four games vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, and Greinke's is currently 1.41. Look for Texas to improve to 5-2 at home this season; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles -165 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (PITCHING MISMATCH) I think that Kyle Gibson and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. JP Sears is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA for the A's, while Kyle Gibson is already 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA for the Orioles. Gibson allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over the hard-hitting Rangers in his last outing, and I expect him to make short work of this pathetic A's line-up as well. Sears should be in the bullpen, but he's being pressed into a starters role out of necessity; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports |
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04-10-23 | Yankees v. Guardians -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Guardians (AL GOW) I like the way this one sets up for the Guardians. The Yanks go with Domingo German, who is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Shane Bieber, who enters 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He gave up three runs and struck out seven in a no-decision vs. the A's in his opener. Bieber has had success vs. the Yanks at past, and at this price on his own field, I feel we are indeed getting tremendous value from the home side; lay the price, the play is CLEVELAND. AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Royals v. Giants -153 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
8* Giants (SPECIAL) I think the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular instance. The Royals hand the ball to Kyle Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs over five innings in his season debut vs. the Jays (note that Bubic was just 2-7 with a 5.39 ERA On the road last season.) The home side counters with Anthon DeSclafani, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits over six innings in a 12-3 win over the White Sox in his season debut. He looks to return to his 2021 form, after an injury-shortened 2022. Look for the Giants' bullpen to be a difference in this one as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Yankees -145 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Nestor Cortes Jr. and the Yankees. Cortes Jr. is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA this year after going five innings in a win over Philadelphia in his season debut. Cortes Jr. was sharp both at home and on the road last year, finishing 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Tyler Wells, hos is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going five innings and striking out two vs. the Rangers. Last year Wells was just 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA at home. Look for Cortes Jr. and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage; lay the price, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-09-23 | Reds v. Phillies -171 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -171 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I feel that Philadelphia is well worth the price of admission in this one. I play dogs, totals, and I'm also not afraid to lay chalk, especially when I feel that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the definitely the case in this one. Connor Overton gets the nod for the Reds, and he's 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA over five runs off eight hits over four innnings. He'll be opposed by vetrean Taijuan Walker, who enters 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings vs. the Yanks in his season debut. Walker has the experience and pedigree to make an immediate return to the winner's circle here and I have no problem laying this larger price on what I expect to be a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* Rockies (NL BOB) I think that Austin Gomber and the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this one. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA after allowing four runs over five innings in a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay in his opener. Note that Williams was 0-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road last season. The Rockies' Gomber is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA after allowing three runs over six innings in a tight 3-1 loss to San Diego. Considering how weak this Nationals' bullpen is, I feel Gomber for sure should be favored by more at home here; great value on Colorado! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Braves (BLOOD-BATH) We have an excitig NL matchup here, but it's one that favors Charlie Morton and the home side in my opinion. In fact, I don't think you can underestimate how important the home field advantage will be in this particular matchup. Michael Wacha is 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA for the Padres after allowing four runs over six innings with two K's in a fortunate win over the Rockies in his opener. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he's 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA after allowing three runs over five innings in an 8-4 victory over the Cardinals in his season opener. A battle of veterans here, but as stated off the top, hom field advantage will prove to be the difference for Morton today; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Marlins v. Mets -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Mets (MOUND MISMATCH) The talent discrepancy between these starters makes the home side well worth the price of admission in my opinion. Trevor Rogers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA for the Marlins after going four innings and allowing four runs in a setback to the Mets in his opener. Rogers was just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA on the road last season and I think he'll struggle in this difficult away venue. The home side counters with the underrated Kodai Senga, who enters 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing one run to go along with eight K's in a victory over Miami. Now back at home, I think Senga could/should in fact be a much bigger fav in this one; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports |
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04-08-23 | Reds v. Phillies -137 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Phillies (ROUT) I think Bailey Falter and the home side are worth the price of admission in this one. Falter is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing two runs to go along with three K's in a tight 2-1 setback with the Rangers. Now at home, I like Falter to settle down and take advantage. Nick Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA after going five innings in and allowing two runs with nine K's in a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh. Lodolo was just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road though and I think he'll struggle here in this difficult road venue; all things considered, I believe we're getting great line value here on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -153 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) I think Brandon Woodruff and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Woodruff is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA, while his counterpart Jack Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Cardinals. The Brewers have won five straight, including 10-0 and 9-0 destructions of the Mets earlier this week. The Cards enter off three straight losses in Atlanta. That's bad news for St. Louis, as dating back to last year finds Woodruff having gone 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 19 starts (he was 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in three starts vs. the Cards last year.) Flaherty hasn't fared as well vs. the Brewers, going 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 16 appearances vs. them (he's also just 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts at Milwaukee.) All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay the price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports |
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04-07-23 | Marlins v. Mets -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
10* Mets (ASSASSIN) At this time of year, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, Tyler Megill and the home side should/could in fact be much larger favorites in this home matchup. Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will face off against Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.50.) This is the second time they've faced each other, with Megill having already beaten the Fish in Miami to kick off the 2023 campaign. The rain-out/delay from Thursday only works in the Mets favor here in my opinion. Megill is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three games vs. the Marlins, while Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets; look for New York to take advantage early here and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves -171 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL GOM) We're going to have an exciting series here in Atlanta, and we have a good pitching matchup to open things up between the Padres' Blake Snell, and the Braves' Spencer Strider. That said, I feel this is a contest that favors the home side. Snell enters 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, lasing only four innings and allowing six hits and three runs in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. Strider is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits and no runs over six innings in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. Strider was 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA at home last yera, and in my professional opinion, he could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. I don't trust Snell on the road; lay the price, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Blue Jays -173 v. Royals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
8* Jays (BLOWOUT SPECIAL) Because it's still so early in the season, I'm looking for value with starting pitching most of the time. And in my opinion, Kevin Gausman and the Jays could/should in fact be much larger favs here in this matchup on the road in KC vs. veteran Jordan Lyles. Guasman enters 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA after going six innings and allowing three runs and striking out seven vs. the Cardinals. Gausman excels on the road, last year he was 8-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA away from friendly confines. Lyles is 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA after going five innings and allowing two runs with two K's in a 2-0 loss to the Twins on April 1st. Look for Gausman's road dominance to continue to open up 2023 and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports |
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04-06-23 | Red Sox -134 v. Tigers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (MOUND MISMATCH) At this point of the season, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, I think Chris Sale and the visiting side offer great value here. Both starters got crushed in their respective openers, but I believe Sale has everything in place for a bounce back effort. Spencer Turnbull gets the nod for the Tigers, and he was rocked for seven runs off eight hits over two innings in a loss to Tampa in his opener. Sale gave up seven runs over three innings to the Orioles. Sale though is 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 career appearances vs. Detroit. Look for Sale to get the better of his counterpart and lay the price with confidence; the play is Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-05-23 | Angels -148 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Angels (DESTRUCTION) Two really good starters here, but I like the way this one sets up for Shohei Ohtani and the visiting side. Ohtani is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Angels, while Chris Flexen is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Mariners. Flexen is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Angels, but Ohtani is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six career starts vs. the Mariners. He received a no-decision in his opening start, despite striking out ten. The Angels line-up is healthy and I expect them to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is the Angels! AAA Sports |
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04-05-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -156 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) The Phillies got off the schneid to move to 1-4 with a victory here yesterday, but I like the home side to bounce back and take this three-game interleague series. Gerrit Cole is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Yanks after allowing three hits over six innings, striking out 11 in a victory over the Giants. He's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Phillies. Who are still missing many key pieces in their lineup. Aaron Nola is 0-0 with a 12.27 ERA after struggling in his opener vs. the Rangers, allowing five runs over three innings. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts vs. New York, but I say he's in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Up until last year, Nola's kryptonite has been his play on the road. I think regression is in order for Nola this season and overall we're getting great value on New York! AAA Sports |
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04-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -137 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Padres are rolling with three straight victories now. I say they keep the foot on the gas here with the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Zac Gallen had a great year last year for the D-Backs, but he got rocked on Opening Day, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks over just 4 2/3's innings. Gallen was terrible in Spring, posting a ballooned 8.27 ERA over four starts. Darvish was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year. He always starts strong and I expect that to again be the case this season; all things considered, I feel we're getting unreal line value here on Darvish and the home side! AAA Sports |
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04-03-23 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cubs. After one series, the Cubs bullpen looks pretty good. Combined with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, I think the visitors offer good value here. Connor Overton was 1-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 2022 for the Reds, but he missed 110 games with injury. He was 0-2 with a 15.34 ERA over 11 2/3's innings this spring. Drew Smyly was 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 2022. He was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in five Spring starts, but note that he closed last season by conceding two or fewer runs in eight of his final nine starts to go along with a 2.28 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds. Look for Chicago and Smyly to step up and take advantage here; the play is the Cubs! AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | Tigers v. Rays -167 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Rays. Zach Eflin gets the nod here for Tampa. He was 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) for Philly last year. I just can't trust Spencer Turnbull here for Detroit, who missed all of 2022 recovering from TJ surgery. Turnbull struggled with confidence during the Spring: "Definitely a little nervous," Turnbull said after his first assignment. "I felt like a baby deer out there, but it was good to be back out there." Lay the price with confidence, the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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04-01-23 | White Sox v. Astros -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* Astros (BLOOD-BATH) I feel like the White Sox and Lucas Giolito are getting far too much respect here on the road, and that swings the value to Jose Urquidy and the undervalued home side. Urquidy was 13-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 appearances last year. He took the off-season really seriously and he's back in the rotation for now. he's 1-0 with a minuscule 1.84 ERA in two career outings vs. the ChiSox. Giolito is coming off his second-straight 11-9 season, pitching to a pedestrian 4.90 ERA last year. He lost both starts vs. the Astros last season, getting shelled for 15 runs off 15 hits over eight innings. Urquidy is the correct call here in my opinion; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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03-31-23 | Guardians v. Mariners -155 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Mariners (ASSASSIN) Seattle could/should easily be a much bigger fav here. I don't ever usually "flip-flop" on a team, as I had a play on Shane Bieber and the Guardians yesterday, but MLB is the one sport that for sure needs to be looked at separately and on their own accord, because of the starting pitching aspect. With that in mind, I just think Seattle should in fact be a much larger fav here. Have you even heard of Hunter Gaddis? The only reason he's getting the start here is that Triston McKenzie is injured to start the season. Gaddis was 0-2 with an 18.41 ERA last year. Robbie Ray struggled with his new team to open up last year, but he finished strong with a 12-12, 3.71 ERA record. Note that he's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four career apperances vs. the Guradians, which includes three starts. I say Ray gets out to a fast start in 2023 in this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Guardians +105 v. Mariners | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10* Guardians (ASSASSIN) The Guardians had the youngest line-up in MLB last year, but they have huge expectations this season and will be out to show that it was no fluke. Seattle also had a bounce back campaign, and expectations are also large in the Pacific Northwest this season. Of any AL team, I think the Mariners could take a big step back though, after taking a step forward last season. I think Bieber is the correct call here in this starting matchup (had a 2.88 ERA last year with 198 K's and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.) Cleveland forced New York to a Game 5 in the ALDS, and it's small ball approach counters the Mariners. I like Bieber here; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Phillies v. Rangers -125 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
10* Rangers (INTERLEAGUE GOM) Of all the teams in the National League this year, I think the Phillies have one of the biggest potentials to take a big step back this year. A lot of things went right for Philadelphia at the end of last year, and I think it'll be difficult to duplicate that success again. But the only way the Rangers can go this season is "up." Especially with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. I like Aaron Nola and he had a bounce back season last year. He was also decent away from friendly confines. But in this opening day interleague matchup, I love DeGrom at this price, no matter what team he's playing for. Look for DeGrom to be the difference here and lay the short price; the play is Texas! AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Giants +170 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the Giants. The Yankees are FINALLY poised to "get over the hump" this year and advance to the World Series right? Maybe. But maybe not. Everything went right for the Yanks over the first 2/3's of last year, before they started to fall off. Aaron Judge was named the Captain of the team after he signed a monster contract. Cole was 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA for the anks last year. He led the league with 257 K's, but he also had an AL-worst 33 home runs served up. He's 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA vs. the Giants. Logan Webb counters for the talented Giants though. He was 11-3 in 2021, and then 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA last season. He was 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA over his final five starts last year. Opening Day can see a lot of crazy things happen. I just think Webb has the very real potential to steal this game himself; the value here lies in the underdog in my opinion, so the play is the Giants! AAA Sports |
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10-23-22 | Padres v. Phillies -134 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) With a chance to close out this series and head to the World Series, I like Zach Wheeler and the Phillies to dig deep here and deliver the goods. Yu Darvish is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in the playoffs, while Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA. "Very excited. Obviously been pitching on the road, but I'm very excited to pitch here in front of these fans," Wheeler said. "They're happy, they're hungry, and they're excited. So it's going to be a lot of fun." Honestly, these starters are evenly matched, but I'll give the slight nod to Wheeler because of the home field advantage. And right now during the playoffs, that's going to be the difference-maker today. This crowd is going to be electric and I expect Philadelphia to ride the wave of emotion; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Padres v. Phillies -105 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BLOOD-BATH) Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports, and that's especially true in the playoffs. I often find that the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying this factor into their process, and that's DEFINITELY the case here in Game 4 in my professional opinion. Despite Bailey Falter having not thrown since October 5th, I still think he has an advantage here over his counterpart Mike Clevinger. Falter went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA in the regular season. He tossed one scoreless inning vs. the Astros back on October 5th. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA during the regular seaosn and he's 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in the playoffs (gave up six hits and five runs over two innings to the Dodgers in his only start.) Even Bob Melvin has his doubts: "We'll see how it goes, take it batter to batter," Melvin said of his starting pitcher tonight. A great price on the surging home side here, so lay the short juice, because the play is indeed on the Phillies! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOOD-BATH) I had a play on Philadelphia in Game 1, but I passed in Game 2. For Game 3, I'm back on Philly. The Padres evened the series at 1-1 with an 8-5 win in Game 2. Philadelphia actually had a four-run lead in Game 2, but wound up losing. I'd call these starting pitchers a "wash." The Padres hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA in the postseason, while Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Phillies. In his only start against the Friars this year Suarez gave up just two runs over eight innings and struck out ten. I like Suarez at home and I believe the Phillies will rally at home after the Game 2 loss. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +116 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (NLCS GOY) These teams are similar in many regards, but I think the Phillies offer great value here as a small underdog. Zach Wheeler is 0-1 with a 2.19 ERA so far in the playoffs. He was 12-7 witha 2.82 ERA in the regular season. The Padres' Yu Darvish is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the post-season and he went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Both pitchers have had plenty of success against their opponent today in the past. Philadelphia's improved bullpen play, combined with their impressive offense in the postseason makes the visitors the correct call here in Game 1 in my opinion; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Braves v. Phillies +113 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 113 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies yesterday in their 9-1 victory. Momentum is a very real, almost "tangible" factor in sports. And that's definitely the case in the playoffs. I've often found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying that factor into their process, and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Charlie Morton finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA for the Braves, while Noah Syndergaard was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA. Syndergaard pitched one scoreless inning in relief in Game 2 in ATL and he's 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in six career playoff appearances. Morton is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA in playoff elimination games. However, that was then and this is now. Morton gave up 18 hits and ten runs over his final three regular-season starts. Look for Syndergaard and the Phillies to ride the wave of emotion at home to another series victory! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies -115 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* NLDS GAME OF YEAR on the Phillies. Philadelphia accomplished what it set out to do in Atlanta, and that was to earn a split. This is Philadelphia's first home game so far during the playoffs, having to win two straight in St. Louis to advance. The Phillies look solid and I say they bounce back after their 3-0 loss in Game 2 (note that the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.) The home side goes with Aaron Nola, who finished 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going seven scoreless vs. the Cards in the Wildcard: "We can't wait for it," Nola said of Game 3. "It's going to be electric. It's something special." The Braves could be going with Charlie Morton, who finished 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA, or Spencer Strider, who finished 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA. Whoever they go with, I give the big nod to a confident Nola at home. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Philly! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Mariners v. Astros -147 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS (SPECIAL) Houston took the first game by a score of 8-7. The Mariners allowed five runs over the 8th and 9th inning to lose by 1. They put in Robbie Ray to close out Game 1 and he served up a three run home run instead. As good as Luis Castillo has been for Seattle this season, and in their Wild Card win over the Jays, I believe he and the visiting side are in over their heads now in this game, and in this series. The Mariners had the Astros on the ropes and would have been in the drivers seat, but the meltdown over the final two innings is going to be a massive mental hurdle which I just don't see this team being able to get over quickly enough. And that's the window of opportunity and momentum that this No. 1 AL leading Houston team needs. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. I'm grabbing HOUSTON! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Rays +102 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10* RAYS (ASSASSIN) I like Tyler Glasnow and the Rays to bounce back from yesterday's tight 2-1 loss. Tampa's now lost six straight games, but I say that streak of futility finally ends here in the Ray's most important game of the season. Tyler Glasnow was impressive in two starts for Tampa after returning from Tommy John surgery, allowing one run, four hits, two walks and striking out ten over 6 2/3's innings of work. Glasnow is 0-2 with a 2.12 ERA in three career starts vs. the Guardians. The home side counters with Triston McKenzie, who finished 11-1 with a 2.96 ERA this season. He owns a 2.25 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa. Experience matters at this moment though and the Rays have a way of defying the metrics. The Guardians may win this series, but I expect it to go to the full three games; the play is Tampa! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Phillies -102 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
8* PHILLIES (BLOCKBUSTER) The Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the Playoffs in Game 5 of the NLDS by a score of 1-0 back in 2011 and Philadelphia hasn't been back to the postseason since. Until now that is. The old saying that "revenge is a dish best served cold" could not be more apt in this three-game series in my opinion. It's all hands on deck for Philadelphia as it tries to pull off the minor upset here on the road. Zach Wheeler finished 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA for the Phillies. He's 3-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts vs. the Cards. Miles Mikolas was going to get the call for the Cards, but now Jose Quintana will. He's 6-7 with a 2.93 ERA. He's 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA in seven career starts vs. Philadelphia. But Philadelphia has all the motivation it needs here and it has the big hitters in the line-up to get the job done. And that's what I expect here in Game 1; the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-22-22 | Twins -125 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (SPECIAL) A great situational play here. The Royals have been relishing playing the role of spoiler of late, but I think the Twins dig deep here finally on Thursday afternoon and break their three-game slide. Minnesota has in fact lost six of its last seven. It's lost two straight here to the Royals, and note that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Minnesota's playoff hopes are dwindling, as it remains nine games back. The Twins turn to Josh Winder in this spot and he's 4-4 with a 4.17 ERA, while the Royals counter with Jonathan Heasley, who is 3-8 with a 5.09 ERA. Both starter have looked decent at times and struggled in others. The overall situation and the above stats though make the Twins (especially at this price!), the correct call in this matchup Thursday; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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09-21-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -110 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (ASSASSIN) I had the Phillies yesterday and that pick unfortunately came up short in the Jays 18-11 blowout win. Philadelphia comes in super desperate here though to snap its four-game slide, as it looks to get back into the Wildcard hunt. The Phillies haven't been in the playoffs since 2011. The Jays have won three of their last four, but with upcoming series starting at Tampa Bay tomorrow, followed by home series vs. New York and Boston, I expect the visiting side to come in complacent and get caught looking ahead. The Phillies clearly don't have that luxury. The starters are evenly matched. Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.45 ERA) gets the call for Toronto, while Zach Wheeler (11-7, 3.07) counters for the Phillies. It would be easy to write a convincing argument for either starter to win here. I just think that the oddsmakers are not propertly taking into account all of the other situational factors here. I think the value here is for sure on Philadelphia AAA Sports |
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09-20-22 | Blue Jays v. Phillies +113 | Top | 18-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES (NON-CONF. GOM) The Jays took two of three from Baltimore over the weekend, but lost the finale 5-4. Toronto has done well on the road this year, but I still don't think it should be favored in this spot. Philadelphia comes in desperate to snap a four-game slide. I think they do that here in this interleague matchup. The Blue Jays hand the ball to Ross Stripling, who is 8-4 with a 2.94 ERA, while the home side counters with Kyle Gibson, who is 10-6 with a 4.45 ERA. Gibson is 5-1 with a 4.14 ERA in ten career starts vs. the Jays, so he'll be feeling confident. Stripling is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appreances vs. the Jays. These guys are evenly matched. Note that Philly is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. This one MEANS so much more to Philadelphia and I think it has plenty of different factors working in its favor today. Great value here on Philadelphia! AAA Sports |
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09-19-22 | Mets v. Brewers -105 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* BREWERS (GAME OF WEEK) The Brewer are in the hunt for a Wildcard and they catch Max Scherzer at the right time. He's 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA, but he's been out since September 4th with an oblique issue. The veteran has had plenty of succcess against the Brewers, and very quickly he'll be "up to speed," but the door is open here for Corbin Burnes and the home side. Burnes is 10-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He was last year's NL Cy Young winner. In four career starts against the Mets he's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. This game MEANS MORE to Milwaukee. I think it'll be decided late, or even in extras, so because of that, I'll recommend laying the short price on the home side in this one! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES MONEYLINE (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia will be looking to get back into the winner's circle after two straight losses. It had won five in a row before falling 5-3 to Miami in the finale of a three-game series, before then falling here by a score of 7-2 in the opener of this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 9-11 with a 3.31 ERA and tiny 0.97 WHIP. While just 4-7 on the road, he sports a highly respectabel 2.86 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by the volatile Jake Odorizzi, who is 5-5 with a 4.15 ERA this year. He's a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA at home this season. This game simply MEANS MORE to Philadelphia and I think it also clearly has the superior starter on the mound; those factors tip the scales in favor of the Phillies this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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09-12-22 | Pirates v. Reds -128 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NL CENTRAL GOY ON CINCINNATI This is a Pittsburgh team that the Reds love to host. They are 21-7 the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Minor has been good lately. He has a 2.60 ERA his last 3 starts. The Reds won 7-1 the last time he pitched. They've won 3 of his last 4 and they won 9-5 his last start against the Pirates. Wilson has not been good lately and he is 2-7 with a 6.88 ERA as a starter. Pittsburgh can't hit and is 17-30 against left-handed starters. Reds win! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Angels v. Astros -210 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
6* BLOOD BATH ON HOUSTON Lorenzen last started a game on July 1. That was against Houston and he gave up 8 runs. Final score was 8-1. Now he has to face the Astros again. Poor guy. McCullers Jr. has a 2.08 ERA in four starts. The Astros beat the Angels 4-2 in his last start. Astros are 49-22 as home favorites of 175 to 250 last 3 seasons. Angels 6-17 as road dogs of 175 to 250. Houston will be too much for the Angels in this one. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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09-08-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
8* DOMINATOR ON PHILADELPHIA The Marlins are really bad right now. You can't win if you don't score. In losing nine straight, they've scored only 14 runs. Price is reasonable because of Miami having its ace on the mound. Even Alcantara has been bad of late though. Last home start saw Gibson deliver 7 shutout innings. Phillies are now 8-1 the past nine meetings with Miami. Head to the closet and grab your brooms, Philadelphia fans. Your club is about to complete the sweep! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Reds v. Cubs -140 | 7-1 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON CHICAGO Cubbies got back in the win column yesterday. Cincinnati got back to losing. Reds are 29-51 last 80 off a loss. Minor's team record is 3-13. He's 3-10 with a 5.98 ERA. Backed by a bad Reds bullpen. Assad has a 0.00 ERA in two starts. The Cubs beat the Cardinals 2-0 when he started at Wrigley. Cubs are 4-1 last 5 meetings with the Reds here and 5-1 last six meetings combined. They'll get it done again tonight. Cubs Win. Cubs Win! AAA Sports |
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09-06-22 | Mets -207 v. Pirates | 2-8 | Loss | -207 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Bloodbath on the NY Mets The Mets, who lost Saturday and Sunday, have been great at responding to losses. They are 36-14 last 50 times they were off a defeat. Walker has faced the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves in his last 3 starts. Three elite teams. Now, he takes on Pittsburgh. Big class drop. Walker has a 10-3 record and a 6-2 record at home. Last three starts, Keller is 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA and a WHIP approaching two. With the Mets 17-5 their last 22, when playing with a day off, this one turns into a blood-bath! AAA Sports |
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09-04-22 | Yankees -120 v. Rays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* A.L. East GOY on New York Yankees Armstrong is a reliever getting a spot start. He's got a 4.72 ERA and a 1.41 W-H-I-P. Montas allowed 0 runs in 7 innings last time he faced Tampa. In two starts against the Rays this season, he has permitted 1 earned run in 13.3 innings. The Yankees will pound Armstrong and they will provide Montas with ample run support. Just when the Rays think they are getting close, NY reminds them who's boss. Let's go Yankees! AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* AL Central GOY on Chicago White Sox Chicago rallied for an important win yesterday. Winners of three straight, the Sox have their ace to the mound. Cease is a Cy Young candidate. Mahle is returning from injury. Still two games back of the Twins and three back of the Guardians, the Sox badly need this game. The Twins are 27-34 away from Minnesota. Sox won 11-0 last time Cease faced the Twins. Chicago makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-02-22 | Astros -155 v. Angels | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10* AL WEST GOY on Houston Astros The Astros are relentless. They've got a 30-11 record against left-handers. Detmers, 1.842 WHIP his last three, is going to be in trouble. Houston averages 4.5 runs per game. LA averages 3.8. As a team, the Angels hit only .227. McCullers Jr. has a 1.69 ERA in his three starts. Eleven straight starts since last year have resulted in McCullers Jr giving up 3 runs or less. Big bullpen edge for the Astros. Houston makes it four straight! AAA Sports |
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09-01-22 | Royals v. White Sox -205 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
6* Smackdown on Chicago White Sox This price is higher than we normally like to go but the matchup warrants it. Chicago got it's win yesterday and now will make it two in a row. Before his last outing, Cueto had been a model of consistency. Mengden will be making his first start this season. He's mostly worked out of the bullpen the past few years and therefore likely won't be around long. KC relievers have a 4.94 ERA. The edges add up to a big victory. AAA Sports |
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08-03-22 | Orioles v. Rangers -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS (MISMATCH) The Oriole have been playing well over the last month and a half. They're off back-to-back victories to open up this series, but I believe that the Rangers will bounce back this afternoon with their "ace" on the mound. The Orioles are severely overmatched in this starting pitching matchup. The visitors see Kyle Bradish toe the slab, and he's 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA. The home side hands the ball to Martin Perez, who is 9-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. With their ace on the mound, and the double revenge factor working in their favor as well, I'm laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price on the Rangers this afternoon! AAA Sports |
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07-24-22 | Astros v. Mariners +110 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (DESTRUCTION) Seattle went into the All Star break on a 14-game win streak, but the Mariners have dropped the first two here at home against the Astros to open up the second half. Robbie Ray is the difference-maker for me today though as Seattle avoids the 3-game sweep. Ray is 8-6 with a 3.54 ERA, but over his last 7 starts he's 3-0 with a 1.36 ERA. In his final outing before the break he struck out 12 in a win over Texas: "That's probably the best I felt all year," Ray said. "I felt like everything was working really well for me." Framber Valdez is 8-4 with a 2.66 ERA for the Astros and while he's enjoyed plenty of success over the Mariners in the past, I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. Look for Seattle to dig deep here and deliver on Sunday; the play is the Mariners! AAA Sports |
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07-16-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -171 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
10* play on the Padres. The Padres pulled off the 5-3 win last night and I expect another decisive victory here on Saturday as well. The bottom line is, I think this is a major starting pitching mismatch. The D-Backs go with Tyler Gilbert, who is a poor 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA and pedestrian 17-8 strikeout to walk ratio. The home side counters with Sean Manaea, who is 4-4 with a 4.04 ERA and a huge 97 to 36 strikeout to walk ratio (he's also 4-1 with a 3.41 ERA in all "night" contests this season!) All in all, I think this price should/could in fact be much larger; lay it with confidence, the play is the Padres! AAA Sports |
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07-16-22 | Tigers v. Guardians -165 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
8* play on the Guardians. The Guardians managed the 6-5 win here yeterday over the Tigers, and I'm expecting an even more decisive victory for the home side on Saturday afternoon. Detroit goes with Michael Pineda, who is 2-4 with a 3.58 ERA, while the home side counters with Cal Quantrill, who is 5-5 with a 3.99 ERA. These starters are essentially a "wash" for all intents and purposes. Cleveland though is 4-1 in its last 5 at home, while Detroit is just 1-6 in its last 7 overall. Cleveland is still looking to make amends after suffering a 4-game sweep at the hands of Detroit earlier in the month; lay the price the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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07-16-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -169 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cardinals. The Reds took 2 of 3 from the Yanks earlier in the week, but they fell here in yesterday's opener by a score of 7-3. I think the home side is worth the price of admission on Saturday afternoon as well. Nick Lodolo is just 2-2 with a 4.44 ERA for the Reds, while Miles Mikolas is 6-7 with a 2.62 ERA for St. Louis. Lodolo has a 1.69 WHIP, while Mikolas sports a 0.95 WHIP. Mikolas is once again on top form and I expect him to make the most of this mismatch; lay the price, the play is St. Louis! AAA Sports |
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07-02-22 | Braves v. Reds +158 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* REDS (ASSASSIN) Off yesterday's 9-1 defeat here to Atlanta, I like the Reds to bounce back and to stop an 0-3 skid. Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last 9 after 3 or more straight losses in a row as well. The defending champs hand the ball to Spencer Strider, who is 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA. He's been decent, but not perfect. The home side counters with Tyler Mahle, who is 3-6 with a 4.53 ERA. Mahle will be feeling confident here, as he eanred the win over the Braves on Opening Day, conceding one unearned run off 3 hits over 5 innings. Mahle allowed 3 runs over 7 innings in a 10-3 win over the Giants in his last start and I believe he's the correct call in this matchup at home; great value on the revenge-minded home side! AAA Sports |
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07-02-22 | Orioles +196 v. Twins | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
9* ORIOLES (DESTRUCTION) Favorites have been hitting at an alarming rate to open up the 2022 MLB season. The dogs start barking this weekend though. I like the Orioles to bounce back here vs. the overachieving Sonny Gray fro myestreday's 3-2 series opening loss. It was the Orioles 3rd straight loss, and note that they're 6-2 in their last 8 after 3 or more losses in a row. Minnesota broke a 2 game slide with yesterday's win. Hard to say too many negative things here about Gray, who is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA (he's a pedestrian 6-5 with a 4.53 ERA in 11 career outings vs. Baltimore.) Jordan Lyles is 4-7 with a 4.94 ERA for the Orioles, but I like the veteran to match his counterpart inning for inning. Over 11 1/3's innings vs. the Twins Lyles has walked 3 and struck out 11. The value swings to the undervalued underdog in this matchup; the play is the Orioles! AAA Sports |
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06-24-22 | Nationals v. Rangers -163 | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
8* RANGERS (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers are 32-35 and playing their best baseball of the season and I think they'll take advantage of this favorable matchup. The home side turns to Dan Dunning, who is 1-5 with a 4.38 ERA, while the visitors go with Paulo Espino (0-1, 2.29.) These teams haven't played since 2017. The Nats had yesterday off after falling 7-0 at home to Baltimore on Wednesday, while the Rangers finished off a 2-game series sweep of the Phillies. Dunning is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 6 career interleague starts. Espino has been decent over 35 1/3 innings of work for Washington, but this is just his third start of the seaon. I say Dunning is the correct call here; lay the price, the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports |
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06-01-22 | Rays v. Rangers +121 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (BOB) The Rangers are rolling, having already taken the first 2 games of this series. I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas in the finale as well. Tampa continues to get too much respect here, especially on the road. Jeffrey Springs is 2-2 with a 1.62 ERA for the Rays. Those rosey numbers are unsustainable and immediate regression is incoming. Jon Gray is just 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA for the Rangers, but the veteran has a big opporuntiy here to get untrcked against a Rays side that averages only 4.14 RPG. While the outright is possible, I'll gladly lay this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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05-30-22 | Twins -158 v. Tigers | 5-7 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (DESTRUCTION) Often I'll break down a matchup completely, looking at various stats and trends. Other times though I feel a "simpler" approach is the best way to look at a contest. And that's the case here. This is a major starting pitching mismatch and I'm not expecting any upsets this afternoon. In fact, the Twins should/could be much bigger favs in this spot. Dylan Bundy (3-2, 4.54 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Beau Brieske (0-4, 5.04), gets the nod for the home side. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. That makes the men on the mound that much more important this afternoon. Look for Bundy to deliver in this favorable spot; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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05-27-22 | Phillies v. Mets -125 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* METS (GOY) After having yesterday off, and off back-to-back losses to San Francisco here at home, I love the way this one sets up for Carlos Carrasco and the Mets. It was just the second series all year that the Mets have lost. They haven't lost 3 straight games yet this year and I don't expect that trend to be broken tonight. Carrasco is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA this season. He faces Bailey Falter, who is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA. In 3 career starts vs. the Phillies, he's 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA. Philadelphia broke a 2 game slide with a satisfying 4-1 win at Atlanta last night. Expect an immediate return to mediocrity here for the Phillies though as they face this rested and determiend home side. Considering all of the different factors working in favor of New York here, I'd consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is the Mets! AAA Sports |
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04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -142 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* JAYS (SPECIAL) This is a 4 game series, and after taking the first two, the Jays fell 7-1 yesterday. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that held it to one or fewer runs. Garrett Whitlock is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA for the Red Sox, while Alex Mahoah is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA for the Jays. Manoah gets the nod at home here for sure. Whitlocks numbers are unsustainable and major regression is in order here. Considering the above info, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | White Sox v. Guardians +134 | 3-6 | Win | 134 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
8* GUARDIANS (SPECIAL) Cleveland took both games of yesterday's double-header and I believe that it's going to post a series sweep here today. The Guardians are undervalued again here by the oddsmakers. Dylan Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA for the White Sox, while Zach Plesac is 0-1 with a 1.64 ERA for the Guardians. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The Guardians have ground to make up and getting them at "plus money" in such an evenly matched game, we'll follow the value here and grab the home side in what I believe will be another convincing victory; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports |
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04-17-22 | Giants v. Guardians +115 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS (ASSASSIN) I think the Guardians will avoid the 3 game sweep at the hands of the visiting Giants, who have found creative ways to continue to win. They're 6-2 to start the season. The Guardians are now 4-4 after dropping the first 2 games. The Giants hand the ball to Alex Wood, who gave up 2 runs over 4 innings in his first start this year. He'll be opposed by Aaron Civale, who earned a no-decision against the Royals in his 1st outing, allowing 4 hits and 2 runs over 4 innings. Last year he was 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. With a 4 game series starting at the Mets tomorrow, I think San Fran gets caught looking ahead here; great value on the hungry Guardians! AAA Sports |
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04-13-22 | Red Sox v. Tigers +111 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS (DESTRUCTION) Detroit took the first game by a score of 3-1, while Boston bounced back with the 5-3 victory yesterday. Boston has a day off after this before four straight at home and I believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Eduardo Rodriguez gets to face his former team for his new team and I expect him to make the most of "home field." He just signed a $77 million dollar deal with Detroit, so this is a big game for him: "It's something that no matter what the results are, you just want to have a good game, pitch good and win the game," he said. "All in all, I'm going to enjoy having the opportunity to face my old teammates." Last year he was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits over 4 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox in Detroit's opener. Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 5.40), gave up three runs off five hits over five innings to the Yanks in his season debut. I like Rodriguez to clutch up here and deliver a gem. As Bob Barker used to say, "The Price Is Right!", as well; the play is the Tigers! AAA Sports |
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04-12-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -114 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
8* YANKEES (SPECIAL) Off a 3-0 loss in yesterday's series opener, I like the Yanks to respond and bounce back on Tuesday. Yusei Kikuchi was 7-9 with a 4.41 ERA in 2021 with the Mariners, while Nestor Cortes Jr. was 2-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2021. Kikuchi is just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in 4 career starts against the Yanks, while Cortes Jr. is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in 7 career outings vs. the Jays. Let's call these starters a "wash." New York though is 6-1 in its last 7 vs. lefties, while Toronto is interestingly 1-4 in its last 5 road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5. New York plays with immediate revenge after last night's shutout loss and I believe it's well worth the price of admission this evening; the play is the Yankees! AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | Mariners v. Twins -132 | 4-3 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
9* TWINS (SPECIAL) No need to overthink this one. The Mariners managed a victory in yesterday's Season Opener, but I expect the home side to answer here. Logan Gilbert was 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the M's last year, while Sonny Gray was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA for the Reds (now on the Twins.) Gray though is a sharp 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle. Expect Gray to outduel his counterpart and lay this price with confidence; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Mariners +102 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (ASSASSIN) Here's an interesting matchup, as I give a big nod to the Mariners on the mound, but I give the Twins the advantage at the plate. It's a classic matchup, but in this case, I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound will prove to be the difference-maker for the visiting Seattle Mariners. Seattle finished second in the AL West with a 90-72 record last year. The Twins were in last place in the AL Central with a 73-89 record. Joe Ryan gets the nod for Minnesota, and he went 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts and 30 K's for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. It's the first rookie starter to start on Opening Day for the Twins since 1969. Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts in 2021 and he's the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Great value on the superior pitchers; the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +150 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
9* RED SOX (DESTRUCTION) My analysis will be pretty succinct over the the first week of the season. The bottom line with this one is that I believe that Nathan Eovaldi and the hungry Red Sox have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Yes, the Yankees have something to prove this year, and Gerritt Cole is a tough opponent, but he was a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts against Boston last year. Eovaldi was 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in six starts against New York last year. Plenty of sluggers on each side, but the value swings to this undervalued underdog on Opening Day in my opinion; the pay is Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Astros +112 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 112 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASTROS (GOW) I think the deep and talented Astros will pull off the slight Opening Day upset. Shohei Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA In 23 starts last year for the Angels, while Framber Valdez was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 22 starts for the Astros. The difference for me though is that Valdez was 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 starts against the Astros last season, while Ohtani went 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in 2 starts vs. Houston. Expect Valdez to continue his dominance over the Angels! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Reds +180 v. Braves | 6-3 | Win | 180 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
8* REDS (SPECIAL) I've always felt that there's tremendous value on Opening day. Especially when betting underdogs on Openind day! I've often found that the bookmakers lines are soft on opening day, and that's the case here with Cincinnait, which I believe has much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Tyler Mahle finished 13-6 with a sharp 3.75 ERA in 33 starts last year. The Reds let Nick Castellanos go, while the defending champs failed to sign Freddie Freeman. The Braves go with Max Fried, who was 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 28 starts last year. Expect the hungrier visiting side to pull off the upset on Opening day; the play is the Reds! AAA Sports |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston’s back is against the wall now as they trail three games to one. They must now beat Atlanta three straight times. The good news is that if they win tonight, not only do they stay alive, but the remaining games would be at home. The Astros have scored just two runs in two games in Atlanta. But we think the lineup wakes up from its slumber in Game 5. We know that the Braves have won 11 straight home games. But the Astros have to start hitting better with runners in scoring position (they are 0 for their last 17 in that situation). Atlanta’s pitching has done a great job so far in the series. But the relievers have had a heavy workload that may catch up with them in the end. No team in MLB history has gone 8-0 at home in the postseason. Matzek, Jackson and Smith have all thrown in each of the last two games. As of this writing, the Braves still haven’t announced a starter. No matter who it ends up being, we look for Houston to at least double its scoring output from the last two games. We also trust Framber Valdez to get the job done. He’s been better on the road all year and won the close-out game vs. Boston in the ALCS, giving up one run and three hits in eight innings. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -109 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta may have been the underdog coming into the World Series, but they quickly wrested away home field advantage by winning Game 1 in Houston. Game 2 was a situation where a play on the Astros seemed obvious, so that’s what we did and we won. But now we like the Braves at home in Game 3. Ian Anderson has been a much better pitcher than Luis Garcia in the playoffs. Anderson’s three starts have resulted in only three runs being allowed. Garcia has given up 10 runs in his three turns in the postseason and that’s despite him pitching only 9.3 innings. Anderson has thrown 12 innings. The Braves have yet to lose two straight in the postseason. We don’t think it will happen now. Off their first three playoff losses, they’ve outscored teams 16-4. Mid-September is the last time the Braves lost consecutive games. They’ve won 66% of the time since August 2nd. The Astros have lost 11 of the last 15 times they’ve played in a National League stadium, which of course means no designated hitter. Such is the case here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -110 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Atlanta jumped all over Houston starter Framber Valdez in Game 1, scoring five times off him in the first three innings. It was pretty much over from there. But like a lot of people, we can’t see the Braves winning two straight on the road to open the World Series. It was a costly win for the Braves last night as Charlie Morton was lost to a season-ending injury. Max Fried will get the baseball in Game 2 and he looked very shaky in his last NLCS start, giving up five runs to the Dodgers in 4.6 innings. Houston did lose back to back games in the ALCS, but other than that they had just one losing streak going back to Labor Day Weekend. Their record at home this year is 55-32. The most recent time that the Astros lost two straight home games was August 22nd and 23rd and those losses came to two different teams. The last time the Astros lost two straight home games to the same opponent was August 5th and 6th to Minnesota. That was nearly three months ago. Game 2 starter Urquidy has a 0.88 WHIP in 10 starts at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We think the Braves were pretty lucky to have what was - in our view - an undeserved “home field advantage” in the NLCS. They had 18 fewer regular season wins compared to the Dodgers. But because Atlanta won a weak NL East and LA was in the same division as San Francisco (and had to settle for a Wild Card), the rules said the Braves got the home field edge. They took full advantage by going 3-0 in Truist Park in the NLCS and won the series in six games. We bring this up because the Braves won’t have home field advantage in the World Series against the Astros. They head to Houston for Games 1 and 2 and this will present a challenge for the pitching staff as the Astros are a much stronger lineup than what the Braves are used to facing. There’s no pitcher coming up to bat in these next two games. The Astros have scored 6.7 runs/game in the playoffs. Atlanta gets to use the DH too, but we don’t think they can match the American League team’s firepower. Framber Valdez went eight innings in Game 5 of the ALCS and gave up one run on three hits. The Braves’ Charlie Morton is winless in three postseason starts with a 3.77 ERA. Almost every edge goes to Houston in this series. We’ll take them in Game 1. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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