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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-28-17 | Orioles +199 v. Astros | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. We think the value on Baltimore is too good to turn down this afternoon and like the visitors to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat: Alec Asher: He’s 1-2 with a 2.17 ERA. Asher has been the most consistent pitcher on the Orioles staff this year and his performance has now likely earned himself a spot in the starting rotation. To go along with his tiny 2.07 ERA he also owns a sparkling 1.07 WHIP over 29 innings of work. In two other starts this year he’s posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 12.1 innings. Lance McCullers: He’s 5-1 with a 2.43 ERA. McCullers most recently gave up one hit and two walks over five scoreless innings in a 5-2 win over the Tigers on Tuesday. McCullers has now won three straight and hasn’t given up a run in 22 innings. The bottom line: McCullers has been fantastic to this point, there’s no doubt about that. But is this incredible run sustainable? We don’t think so. Asher is battling for recognition here and a spot in the rotation and we’re expecting another big afternoon from the young Orioles’ hurler. Play on BALTIMORE. AAA Sports |
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05-28-17 | Royals +115 v. Indians | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Royals. We like the Royals to build off yesterday’s 5-2 victory. Danny Duffy: He’s 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits and three walks in a 6-2 win over the Yanks on Tuesday, also striking out seven. Over his last four outings he’s posted a tiny 1.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.1 K/9 ratio. Note that he’s been effective on the road so far, going 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA. Josh Tomlin: He’s 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA. Tomlin most recently was shelled for five runs off nine hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. The veteran has now given up ten earned runs over his last 8.2 innings of work and to go along with his ballooned ERA, he also owns a poor 1.43 WHIP and lacklustre 6.9 K/9 for the campaign. Note that he’s been particularly horrible at home this season by going 1-4 with an 8.22 ERA. The bottom line: These two teams are moving in opposite directions as KC is 13-11 (+4.2 units) in May, while Cleveland is just 10-12 (-7.7 units) this month. Look for Duffy to outlast his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Brewers | 1-6 | Loss | -138 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Zack Greinke is quietly putting together one of the best starts of his career. Arizona found a way to get the job done in yesterady’s 4-2 victory and we’re expecting a little “de-ja vu” tonight as well. Greinke: He’s 6-2 with a 2.82 ERA. Greinke most recently allowed one run off four hits to go along with 12 K’s in a complete-game victory over the White Sox on Monday. He owns a 3.60 ERA on the road. He also owns a minuscule 0.97 WHIP. Chase Anderson: He’s 2-1 with a 4.25 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up six runs off seven hits, including three home runs, while walking three and striking out just two over four innings in an eventual 13-6 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Anderson had looked pretty solid up to that point, but note that he’s already 0-1 with a ballooned 6.30 ERA in all “day” games this season. The bottom line: Note that Arizona is 6-4 (+1.8 units) this year after three or more consecutive victories, while Milwaukee is just 1-2 (-1.1 units) after three or more consecutive losses. Hard to go against Greinke in this matchup, so we won’t! Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-27-17 | Padres v. Nationals -232 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals. We believe that the talent discrepancy, both on the mound and at the plate today absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Clayton Richard: He’s 3-5 with a 4.31 ERA. He enters off his best outing of the year, going the distance against Arizona on Sunday and allowing one run off five hits. Rihard has been consistently inconsistent all season though, alternating good starts with bad. Stephen Strasburg: He’s 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA. Strasburg most recently allowed two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out a season-high 11 over 7.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Sunday. The bottom line: Note that San Diego is just 12-19 (-4.6 units) this year following a loss, while Washington is 18-11 (+2.7 units) following a victory. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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05-26-17 | Braves v. Giants -103 | 2-0 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco Giants. Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but Matt Cain has been “lights out” at home this year, while the Braves’ Jaime Garcia has struggled no matter where he’s thrown this season. All things considered, we feel we’re getting a pretty good price on the home side tonight. Garcia: He’s 1-3 with a 4.07 ERA. Garcia most recently gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out eight over eight innings against the Nationals on Sunday. It was his best start of the season to date. Clearly we aren’t reading too much into one decent outing though, as note that he’s just 1-2 with a ballooned 4.98 ERA away from friendly confines this season. Cain: He’s 3-2 with a 4.91 ERA. Cain is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs over 5.1 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Cards on Sunday. Cain is 0-2 with a an 8.28 ERA on the raod, but is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA at home. The bottom line: We think Cain gets the better of his inconsistent counterpart, play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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05-26-17 | Mariners v. Red Sox -172 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Boston Red Sox. We feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Yovani Gallardo: He’s 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA. In his most recent outing Gallardo was shelled for ten runs off nine hits over 13.2 innings in a 16-1 loss to the soft-hitting White Sox on Saturday. Gallardo had been hit or miss previous to that “dud,” and note the he’s been pretty pedestrian on the road so far by going 1-2 with a 4.43 ERA. Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA. Rodriguez gave up three runs off six hits while walking one and striking out eight over eight innings in a 12-3 rout of the A’s on Sunday. It was the southpaws’ sixth straight quality start to open 2017 and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home this year with a 2.38 ERA. The bottom line: We like Boston to build off yesterday’s 6-2 win over the Rangers and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins -133 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. Jesse Chavez has struggled of late while Dan Straily has gotten better as the season has progressed. All things considered, we feel that the home side could easily be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Chavez: He’s 4-5 with a 4.61 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Mets on Sunday. Chavez’s peripherals (1.8 HR/9 and 35.6 percent hard contact rate) suggest rockier times ahead. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA on the road this year. Straily: He’s 2-3 with a 3.70 ERA. Straily most recently gave up three runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings in a win over the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that Straily has been very effective at home this year with a 1.95 ERA thus far. The bottom line: We think the road catches up to the Angels today and we expect Straily to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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05-26-17 | Padres v. Nationals -243 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Nationals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Max Scherzer and the hard-hitting home side could easily be even bigger favs in this favorable matchup: Luis Perdomo: He’s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA. Perdomo most recently got rocked for eight runs off 11 hits over three innings in a loss to Arizona on Saturday. Perdomo’s peripherals suggest that he’s likely to get back on track at some point, but note that he was just 5-5 with a 5.30 ERA on the road last year. Scherzer: He’s 4-3 with a 3.02 ERA. Scherzer most recently gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over five innings against the Braves on Saturday. It wasn’t his best outing clearly, but note that to go along with his respectable 3.02 ERA, Scherzer also owns tidy 11.5 K/9 and 2.4 W/9 averages. The bottom line: Note that San Diego is just 13-22 (-6.6 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Washington is 25-16 (+1.1 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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05-26-17 | Reds v. Phillies -131 | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. This is a mismtach of epic proportions. We feel that Aaron Nola should be a much bigger fav tonight. Tim Adleman: He’s 2-2 with a 6.19 ERA. Adleman has for the most part been terrible this year and in his last start he gave up six runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Saturday. Adleman has now allowed 11 runs over his last three starts. Nola: He’s 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Nola returned from a short injury to give up one run off four hits over seven innings in an unfortunate 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, going on to also strike out five. The bottom line: Note that Adleman is 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA on the road, while Nola is 1-0 with a 3.99 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that Nola has a massive advantage over his “gas can” of a counterpart. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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05-25-17 | Mariners v. Nationals -144 | 4-2 | Loss | -144 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals. We like Washington to build off yesterday’s 5-1 victory and to find a way to get the job done on Thursday afternoon in another matchup on the mound that’s working in its favor. Ariel Miranda: He’s 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA. He comes in off a gem against the light-hitting White Sox on Friday, posting nine K’s over seven innings while giving up one earned run off four hits and two walks. Miranda has been a “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year though, going 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA at home, but only 1-1 with a ballooned 6.65 ERA on the road. Gio Gonzalez: He’s 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA. He comes in off his first shaky outing of the season, giving up four earned runs off nine hits while striking out five in a no-decision against the Braves on Friday. Gonzalez’s 5.24 FIP suggests rockier times ahead, but he’s been “lights out” at home this year, going 1-0 with a 1.41 ERA. The bottom line: Note that Seattle is just 3-8 (-3.6 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Washington is 8-5 (+1.1 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Gonzalez gets the nod in this matchup as home field simply can’t be overlooked. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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05-24-17 | Giants v. Cubs -165 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Kyle Hendricks has a big advantage today over his inconsistent counterpart. Matt Moore: He’s 2-4 with a 5.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Friday. The southpaw has looked better over the last month, but faces a stiff test today in the Cubs, who rank fifth in the majors in wOBA (.342) against lefties. Hendricks: He’s 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off six hits with four K’s over six innings in a 7-5 win over the Reds on Wednesday. Hendricks has now posted four quality starts out of his last five trips to the mound. The bottom line: Moore is 0-3 with an 8.63 ERA on the road. Hendricks is 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home. Also note that San Fran is just 11-16 (-6.4 units) this year against right-handed starters this season, while the Cubbies are 7-4 (+1.6 units) against left-handers. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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05-23-17 | Rangers +185 v. Red Sox | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. We think Rick Porcello is overpriced in this particular matchup. Andrew Cashner: He’s 1-3 with a 2.45 ERA. He gave up two runs off eight hits and a walk over seven innings in a 9-3 win over the Phillies on Wednesday, also striking out two. He’d take a shutout into the seventh inning. Note that he owns a 3.12 ERA on the road and a 2.62 ERA in all “night” games. Porcello: He’s 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA. He most recently was rocked for four runs off nine hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-4 extra-innings win over the Cardinals on Wednesday. Note that Porcello has given up an MLB-high 66 hits (including ten dingers) over 55.1 innings of work. The bottom line: Note that Texas is 14-9 (+4 units) this year after a win, while Boston is just 7-14 (-9.5 units) in the same position. The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-23-17 | Indians -149 v. Reds | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Carlos Carrasco and the Indians could/should be much bigger favs. Carrasco: He’s 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA. He had his last start cut short due to arm fatigue. Carrasco was given an extra couple of days off to heal and has been given the green light this evening. Note that he’s 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA on the road thus far. Amir Garrett: He’s 3-3 with a 5.18 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. The bottom line: We think Carrasco will get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays -129 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* American League BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tampa Bay Rays. We think LA is primed for a letdown here. The Angels dropped two of three to the Mets over the weekend, but enter off a very satisfying 12-5 win in the finale yesterday. The Rays had their four-game win streak snapped in a 3-2 loss to the Yanks yesterday, but they have to be feeling pretty confident with Jake Odorizzi heading to the hill. Odorizzi (3-2, 3.16 ERA) wasn’t at his best against the Indians on Tuesday, but still managed to pick up the win after allowing four runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out five over six innings. Odorrizi owns a tiny 0.89 WHIP through 37 innings of work this year and a highly respectable 2.88 ERA at home over four outings. The visitors counter with JC Ramirez (3-3, 3.97) who went seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing two runs while also striking out two. Previous to that Ramirez had been shelled for five runs though and note that his 5.12 ERA on the road this season inspires little confidence. And finally note that LA is just 15-18 (-3.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Tampa is 14-8 (+7.4 units) after a loss and 18-13 (+5.7 units) against right-handed starters. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks -113 v. Padres | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think we’re getting great value on Zach Godley and the hard-hitting visiting side in this matchup. Godley: He’s 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off one hit while striking out seven over seven innings in a win ove rthe Mets on Monday, unfortunate to note factor into the decision. To go along with his fantastic 1.93 ERA, Godley also owns a fantatic 0.96 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 ratio. Clayton Richard: He’s 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA. Richard was most recently rocked for six runs off ten hits over six innings in a loss to the Brewers. Richard has been hit or miss all year, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a ballooned 6.08 ERA in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: Also note that Arizona is 15-10 (+5.2 units) this year following a victory, while San Diego is just 10-19 (-7 units) following a loss and just 4-6 (-1.5 units) after three or more consecutive setbacks. We think Godley has a big advantage on the mound and that the Diamondbacks have a big advantage at the plate. Lay the short price, play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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05-20-17 | Marlins +173 v. Dodgers | 10-6 | Win | 173 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. The Dodgers are the better hitting team, but we think that Jose Urias is overpriced in this matchup, swinging the value to the underdog in this situation. Dan Straily: He’s 1-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He was forced out of his last start early after taking a come-backer to his non-throwing arm. He’s been cleared to go for this one and he’d go on to finish five scoreless outings against the Astros before leaving for precautionary measures. Urias: He’s 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Rockies on Sunday. The bottom line: Miami looks to bounce back here after yesterady’s 7-2 defeat, note that it’s 30-26 (+6.2 units) in its last 56 after three or more consecutive losses. And note that LA has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors already this year, going a poor 11-12 (-6.6 units) following a victory. We like the desperate visitors, play on MIAMI. AAA Sports |
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05-20-17 | White Sox +160 v. Mariners | 16-1 | Win | 160 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago White Sox. We think that Mike Pelfrey and the Chicago White Sox can build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory and find a way to get the job done against the volatile Yovani Gallardo and the up-and-down Seattle Mariners on Saturday night. Pelfrey: He’s 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off three hits over 4.2 innings in a 5-3 loss to the Angels on Monday. Gallardo: He’s 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off four hits over six innings in a 6-5 win over the A’s on Monday. He’s given up at least three runs in six of his eight starts. The bottom line: Clearly Pelfrey is terrible. However, Gallardo is too. And note that Chicago is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in its last three after holding its opponent to one run or less in its previous outing, while Seattle is just 15-19 (-3.6 units) against right-handed starters. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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05-20-17 | Rangers +144 v. Tigers | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. Aside from one bad outing (in his last start), AJ Griffin has been solid in his time for the Rangers this year. Tigers’ veteran Justin Verlander has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concered this year. We like the hard-hitting Rangers to build off yesterday’s 5-3 victory. Griffin: He’s 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA. After going the distance in a complete game shutout against San Diego, Griggin came back down to Earth against the A’s on Sunday, giving up four runs off seven hits and three walks over five innings. The three walks represented a season high. Note that Griffin is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA on the road already this year. Verlander: He’s 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over six innings in a loss to the Angels on Sunday. The right-handers BB/9 is up to 4.66, which would be a career worst if the season ended today and is more than double his rate from last year. The bottom line: After a slow start, Texas is now 11-6 (+5.4 units) in May, while Detroit is interestingly only 9-10 (-1.4 units) in all “night” games this season. We think Griffin can outduel his counterpart, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-20-17 | Nationals v. Braves +170 | 2-5 | Win | 170 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. Clearly Max Scherzer is the superior starter in this matchup against veteran Bartolo Colon. But we think that the home side can build off yesterday’s 7-4 victory and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Scherzer: He’s 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out eight in a no-decision against the Phillies on Sunday. Colon: He’s 2-4 with a 6.80 ERA. After getting rocked in Houston in his previous start, Colon bounced back with a win over the hard-hiting Blue Jays on Monday by allowing three runs (two earned) off seven hits and two walks over five innings. The veteran has now issued two walks or fewer in all eight of his starts in 2017. The bottom line: Colon was dominant for the Mets last year, finishing 15-8 with a 3.45 ERA. That included a 6-3, 3.13 ERA in all “home” games. All of that said, Scherzer is still clearly miles ahead of his aging counterpart, but note that Washington is just 8-8 (-4.9 units) in all “day” games this year, while Atlanta is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three after scoring seven or more runs in its previous outing. We like the BRAVES to pull off another upset on Saturday night! AAA Sports |
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05-19-17 | Diamondbacks -133 v. Padres | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). We think Taijuan Walker and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks could/should easily be much bigger favs in this spot. Walker: He’s 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA. He’s coming off a loss against Pittsburgh on Saturday, allowing four runs off eight hits with three walks. Walker started the year on fire and has since regressed a little. Jered Weaver: He’s 0-4 with a 6.05 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the White Sox on Sunday. It was the first time he’d given up less than two runs in a game and the only start in which he did not serve up a home run. The bottom line: Clearly we aren’t reading too much into on decent start for Weaver, who has struggled in this spot all year, going 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Walker doesn’t instill a ton of confidence, but he still gets the big nod in this matchup. Also note Arizona is 17-11 (+6.2 units) against right-handed starters this year, while San Diego is only 10-20 (-8.9 units) in the same position. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-19-17 | Red Sox -189 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -189 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Boston Red Sox. We like the hard-hitting Red Sox to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 defeat and take advantage of this massive mismatch on the mound. Chris Sale: He’s 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA. He most recently struck out 12 and gave up three earned runs off two hits and a walk over seven innings in a win over the Rays on Saturday. Sale is dominating across the board with a K/9 of 13.0 and K:BB of 85:13 through eight starts. Note that he’s posted seven straight starts with double-digit strikeouts. Kendall Graveman: He’s 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA. He’s coming off a no-decision against the Rangers on Sunday, giving up four earned runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings. Graveman has been serviceable this year, but not spectacular. He was 5-6 with a 3.39 ERA at home last season. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 13-5 (+6.8 units) already this year following a loss, while Oakland is just 7-10 (-3.6 units) following a win. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-19-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -122 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. Toronto comes in off an emotionally charged 9-0 win over the Braves in Atlanta last night, while Baltimore is back home after falling 6-5 in Detroit last night. With Kevin Pillar suspended for two games and with the Jays’ still dealing with several injury issues, we’re expecting Chris Tillman and company to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Aaron Sanchez: He’s 0-1 with a 2.95 ERA. He returned from the DL after a bliste isseu to go five innings against the Mariners on Sunday, allowing just a single run before having to exit after his finger started bleeding. Hard to say anything negative about Sanchez, so we won’t. We simply feel this is a bad spot for the Jays. Tillman: He’s 1-0 with a 2.89 ERA. He wasn’t at his best in his last start, going 4.1 innings and allowing three runs off eight hits while striking out four in a no-decision against the Royals on Saturday. In his previous outing he’d go five scoreless. The bottom line: Note that Toronto is just 10-17 (-9 units) this year in all “night” games, while Baltimore is 18-10 (+8.4 units) in the same position. The Jays are dealing with injuries and off-field drama. Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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05-18-17 | Phillies v. Rangers -155 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Texas Rangers. The Rangers smashed the Phillies 9-3 yesterday. While Martin Perez has struggled for the most part this year, he’s still miles ahead of his counterpart with his form. All things considered, we feel this is a very fair price. Nick Pivetta: He’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. He most recently was shelled for four runs off five hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Nats on Saturday. The rookie will only be in the line-up until Aaron Nola rejoins the rotation next week. Perez: He’s 1-5 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits while striking out three over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Padres on Thursday. Perez has now posted three quality starts out of his last four trips to the hill. The bottom line: Perez was 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 2016, but that included a very respectable 8-3, 3.24 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Phillies are a poor 6-15 (-5.6 units) on the road and a horrible 0-4 (-4.1 units) in all interleague contests, while Texas is 15-8 (+6.1 units) at home and 5-1 (+4 units) in all interleague matchups. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-17-17 | White Sox v. Angels -162 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. We feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Miguel Gonzalez: He’s 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA. He most recently was shelled for five earned runs off eight hits and four walks against the light-hitting Friars on San Diego. Matt Shoemaker: He’s 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Friday, walking one and striking out seven in the 7-0 victory. The bottom line: Note though that the White Sox are just 9-14 (-2 units) in all night games this year, while LA is 18-14 (+3.3 units) in the same position. Look for Mike Trout and the hard-hitting home side to take advantage, play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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05-17-17 | Orioles v. Tigers -143 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 1-1 with a 6.15 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Tuesday. We aren’t reading too much into one decent outing, note that Jimenez had failed to last longer than three innings in any of his previous three appearances. Michael Fulmer: He’s 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA. He most recently went seven innings and gave up one run off three hits while striking out seven in a win over the Angels. The bottom line: Fulmer was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA at home last year. We like Detroit to bounce back from yesterday’s 13-11 defeat today, note that the Tigers are already 3-0 (+4.4 units) this season after allowing ten runs or more. Play on DETROIT. AAA Sports |
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05-17-17 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -125 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but we think that Matt Harvey is a complete train-wreck right now and we look the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Harvey: He’s 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA. Harvey was shelled for five runs off seven hits (including three dingers) to go along with five walks over five innings in a 7-4 loss to the Brewers on Friday. He’d go on to throw only 59 of 106 pitches for strikes. Harvey has now given up at least five runs in each of his last three starts. Patrick Corbin: He’s 3-4 with a 4.17 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings in an 11-4 win over Pittsburgh on Friday. Corbin got an early 11-run lead, so was able to then sit back and paint the strike zone, which attributed to the higher-score. The bottom line: Note that the Mets are just 2-7 (-6.4. units) this year in all “day” games, while Arizona is 9-2 (+7.4 units) in its last 11 home games with a money line of +125 to -125. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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05-16-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays -144 | 9-5 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto had its five-game win streak snapped in yesterday’s 10-6 setback, but we expect Marco Estrada and the home side to get back on track in this favorable matchup: Jamie Garcia: He’s 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and five walks over six innings in a loss to Houston on Wednesday. Garcia has now walked five batters in back-to-back starts. Note that he owned a poor 4.98 ERA on the road last season. Estrada: He’s 2-2 with a 3.12 ERA. He also comes in off a dud, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a setback to the Rays on Saturday. We’re not reading too much into one poor outing though, as Estrada had given up a total of four runs over his previous four combined starts. The bottom line: Estrada owned a 2.98 ERA in all “day” games a year ago, and note that the Jays are 3-1 (+2 units) in their last four “day” games. And note that Atlanta is just 2-8 (-5.6 units) in all “day” games. Lay the price, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-14-17 | Houston Astros - Game #2 v. New York Yankees - Game #2 -131 | 10-7 | Loss | -131 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. We think that Mashario Tanaka is worth the price of admission in this matchup: Charlie Morton: He’s 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA. He is coming off a win after giving up three runs off five hits and four walks over 5.2 innings against the Braves on Tuesday. Note that he’d throw just 48 of his 84 pitches for strikes. Tanaka: He’s 5-1 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a 10-4 win over Boston on Monday, giving up four runs off ten hits while striking out six over seven innings. Tanaka has now won five straight and amazingly, he’s given up just one walk over his last three combined starts. The bottom line: Note that Tanaka was 7-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home last year. We think the book is still out on Morton right now lay the price, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 -183 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 7* play on the Washington Nationals. This is a 7* play on the Washington Nationals. We think the talent discrepancy today, both on the mound and at the plate, absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Vince Velasquez: He’s 2-3 with a 5.94 ERA. He faced the Nationals last Saturday and was rocked for six runs off seven hits over seven innings in the eventual loss. Note that he owned a poor 5.37 ERA on the road last season. Max Scherzer: He’s 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits while striking out 11 over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Baltimore on Tuesday. Scherzer has now given up just three runs over his last 15 innings to ago along with a 22:4 K:BB ratio in that span. The bottom line: Scherzer was 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home last year. Note that the Phillies are just 5-12 (-4.6 units) on the road this year, while Washington is 21-11 (+5.4 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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05-14-17 | A's v. Rangers -139 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. Kendall Graveman has been pretty good for the A’s, but AJ Griffin has been even better for the Rangers. We think this line could/should easily be a lot higher. Graveman: He’s 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA. He gave up two runs off seven hits and one home run while walking one and striking out six over seven frames in an eventual no-decision against the Angels on Monday. In his previous start he gave up six runs in 3.1 innings to the Twins. NOte that he was 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in all “day” games last year. Griffin: He’s 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA. He went nning innings in his last start, giving up four runs with one walk while also striking out four in the 11-0 win over San Diego on Tuesday. Griffin has now won four straight starts and given up just four runs in 26 innings in that span. The bottom line: Note that Oakland is just 8-11 (-2.1 units) this year following a loss, while Texas is already 12-8 (+3.1 units) at home and 3-1 (+1.7 units) after three or more consecutive SU victories. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-13-17 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -149 | 4-3 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Trevor Williams: The Pirates’ starter is 1-2 with a 7.98 ERA this year. In his most recent outing he was rocked for eight runs off seven hits while walking one over three innings in a 12-1 loss to the Dodgers on Monday. Taijuan Walker: He’s 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA. Walker comes in off a loss at Coors Field, looking decent in allowing just three runs (one earned) over 5.2 innings. The bottom line: Walker has so far looked pretty solid this year, while Williams has been a complete train-wreck. The D-Backs are coming off a convincing victory last night and we look for the team to carry that momentum over here. Note that the Pirates are just 7-14 (-7.4 units) this year following a loss, while Arizona is 11-9 (+2.6 units) following a victory. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-11-17 | Twins v. White Sox -128 | 7-6 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Chicago White Sox. We think that the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Derek Holland is throwing for the White Sox right now. Phil Hughes: He’s 4-1 with a 4.32 ERA. In his last start he gave up just one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Red Sox last week. Hughes has looked decent this year despite his larger ERA, but note that he was 0-3 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. Holland: He’s 3-2 with a 2.02 ERA. To go along with his sparkling 2.02 ERA, Holland also owns a tiny 1.04 WHIP. The bottom line: Note that Minnesota is just 7-8 (-2.1 units) this year after a win, while Chicago is 8-7 (+4.5 units) this season fllowing a loss. We like Holland to get the better of Hughes, play on the WHITE SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-11-17 | Red Sox -121 v. Brewers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox. Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this interleague series, but we expect the hard-hitting Red Sox to close the finale with a victory. Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA. He comes in off his third straight quality start by going seven innings in a loss against the Twins on Friday, allowing three runs off seven hits to go along with six K’s. The crafty southpaw has now struck out 37 over 29.1 innings. Note that he was 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA on the road last year. Jimmy Nelson: The Brewers starter is 1-2 with a 4.83 ERA thus far. Nelson’s last start was cut short due to rain, he’d go three shutout innings, striking out two in the no-decision against Pittsburgh on Friday. Previous to the shortened outing, he’d been shelled for 15 earned runs over his last 15.2 innings spanning three starts. Note that he was 2-3 with a 5.29 ERA in all “day” games a year ago. The bottom line: Boston is already 10-5 (+3 units) this year following a loss and 10-4 (+5.9 units) in all “day” games, while Milwaukee is already just 1-2 (-1.1 units) this season after three or more consecutive victories and only 4-6 (-2 units) in all day contests. All things considered, we feel this is a great price. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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05-10-17 | Padres v. Rangers -197 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Texas Rangers. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Yu Darvish and the home side could in fact be a lot bigger favs in this particular matchup. Luis Perdomo: He’s 0-0 with a 4.03 ERA. He most recently went six innings against the Rockies on Thursday. Perdomo has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerened this year, note that he was 5-5 with a 5.30 ERA on the road last season. Darvish: He’s 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA. He gave up one run off six scattered hits and four walks over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Mariners on Friday. The bottom line: So far Darvish has posted six quality starts out of seven tries this year. Looks like the RANGERS offense is in for another big night, lay the price. AAA Sports |
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05-09-17 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -115 | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* INTERLEAGUE ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Justin Verlander has been pretty solid so far to open the 2017 campaign. So too has Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks. The Tigers haven’t been great on the road though and Arizona is tough at home. Verlander: He’s 2-2 with a 4.21 ERA. He’s coming off consecutive decent outings, most recently holding the Indians to two runs off four hits over seven innings. Previous to that, he’d come off consecutive duds though. Ray: He’s 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA. He’s coming off a dominant outing against the Nationals on Thursday (highest scoring team in the league), giving up just two runs off four hits with one walk while striking out ten over six innings. The bottom line: Ray owns an impressive 1.27 WHIP, 3.23 FIP and 12.1 K/9 ratio for the season. This is Detroit’s first interleague series, while Arizona has already gone 3-0 (+3.9 units) in such affairs. The Diamondbacks are also 13-8 (+6.2 units) agains right-handed starters and 12-5 (+7.7 units) in front of the home town crowd. The Tigers are only 6-8 (-1 units) away from friendly confines. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-08-17 | Giants v. Mets -153 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. For the most part MLB handicaping comes down to the starting pitching. And when trying to properly assess starting pitchers, often recent performance is the best indicator we have. In our opinion, this one highly favors Jacob DeGrom and the home side. Matt Moore: He’s 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Most recently he was rocked for nine runs off six hits and five walks over just 3.1 innings in a loss to LA on Tuesday. Moore has now given up at least one home run in each of his last five starts and seven home runs over just 33.1 innings total. DeGrom: He’s 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA. He’s also coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off eight hits with five walks with five K’s over five innings in 16-5 win over the Braves. DeGrom had a huge lead, so was able to just pound the strike zone without too much worry. And note, he owns a superb 49:16 K:BB ratio over 36.2 innigns of work this season. The bottom line: Moore was 4-7 with a 5.02 ERA on the road last year. DeGrom was 5-3 with a 2.11 ERA at home. In our opinion, this line could easily be a lot higher, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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05-07-17 | Indians v. Royals -105 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Kansas City Royals. The Royals took Game 1 of this series 3-1 on Friday. The Indians would then bounce back yesterday with a 3-1 victory. We think that Danny Duffy is being severely undervalued in this matchup today though, so we expect the home side to rally in the finale. Mike Clevinger: This is his first big league start of the season. He owns a 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and 32:10 K:BB ration over 30 frames in the mintors, but note that his MLB numbers are poor, a 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 50:29 K:BB in 53 innings. Duffy: He’s 2-2 with a 3.89 ERA. He started the year hot, but comes in off back-to-back duds, most recently giving up six runs off ten hits and two walks over five innings to the White Sox on Tuesday. The bottom line: Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last year and 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA in all “day” games. Here’s the perfect counterpart to get untracked against, play on the ROYALS. AAA Sports |
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05-06-17 | White Sox v. Orioles -192 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Baltimore Orioles. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that the Dylan Bundy and the Orioles could in fact be much larger ones. Dylan Covey: He’s 0-2 with 7.29 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for six runs off nine hits while walking two and striking out two over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. The rookie has yet to strike out more than four batters in an outing and owns a pathetic 3.4 K/9 in 21 innings of work. Bundy: He’s 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off five hits and four walks across seven innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Monday. Bundy has thrown six straight quality starts to open the year. The bottom line: Last year Bundy was 5-3 with a very respectable 3.14 ERA at home. We look for the ORIOLES to build off yesterday’s 4-2 win, lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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05-05-17 | Nationals -163 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. We had a play on the Nationals on the RUN LINE yesterday and they’d hold on for the 4-2 victory. It was a much needed win for us. We’re back on the horse again on Friday night as we think that Stephen Strasburg is well worth the price of admission in this matchup: Strasburg: He’s 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Mets on Saturday, although it was a quality start after giving up three runs while striking out two over seven innings. He’s now given up either two or three runs in each of his five starts, while also going exactly seven innings in every outing as well. Nick Pivetta: In his major league debut last Sunday he allowed two runs off nine hits over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers. Pivetta was filling in for the injured Aaron Nola and this will likely be his last start in the majors before once again being sent back down. While Pivetta looked decent in his first outing, clearly the book is still out on the youngster. The bottom line: Strasburg has to be feeling confident in this spot, as note that last year he’d finish a near-perfect 8-1 with a 3.00 ERA away from friendly confines. While the Nats wrapped up their Thursday afternoon victory over the Diamondbacks quite early, the Phillies were forced to play extra innings in Chicago. We think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas wants us to think. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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05-03-17 | Giants v. Dodgers -158 | 4-1 | Loss | -158 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. After somehow falling 4-3 to Johnny Cueto with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound on Monday night, the Dodgers bounced back with a resounding 13-5 win last night. We’re expecting the home side to build off that performance and take advantage of this clear mismatch on the mound. Jeff Samardzija: He’s 0-4 with a 6.32 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the light-hitting Padres on Friday. Previous to that Samardzija has been crushed, so we’re not reading too much into once decent outing. Also note that he was particularly feeble in this spot last year, posting a pedestrian 4.03 ERA on the road. Julio Urias: He’s 0-0 with a 1.59 ERA. In his first start after being called up last week he gave up one runs off four hits over six innings while stirking out four in a 5-1 win over San Francisco. The bottom line: Note that Urias was dominant at home last year, finishing 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA. The bottom line: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Urias and the GIANTS should in fact be much larger ones. AAA Sports |
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05-03-17 | Phillies +190 v. Cubs | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. After falling 8-3 yesterday, we think the Phillies have a pretty good shot at stealing the finale on Sunday night. Jerad Eickhoff has looked brilliant at times and downright terrible in others, but we think that Jake Arrieta continues to be extremely over-rated by the books as they’re either slow in recognizing in how far he’s fallen off since the middle of last year, or they’re trying to continue to feed off the public’s image of the player he was two years ago. Eickhoff: He’s 0-2 with a 3.56 ERA. He comes in off a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers, giving up all five runs over 5.2 innings of work. He still owns an impressive 28:11 K:BB ratio over 30.1 innings of work though. Arrieta: He’s 3-1 with a 4.66 ERA. He was most recently blasted for five runs off ten hits over just 4.1 innings in a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox on Friday. The 31 year old has now allowed at least three runs in four straight starts. The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia is 3-1 (+2.5 units) in its last four against right-handed starters, while the Cubs are just 9-10 (-7.8 units) in the same position this season. The value is way too good to turn down here, play on PHILADELPHIA. AAA Sports |
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05-03-17 | Blue Jays -106 v. Yankees | 6-8 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. After falling 11-5 yesterday, we think that the Blue Jays can bounce back in the finale of this three game set in what we believe to be a bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is wanting us to believe. Marcus Stroman: He’s 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA. He continued his strong start to the season by giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out ten over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Tampa Bay on Friday. To go along with his very respectable 2.97 ERA, Stroman also owns a great 1.18 WHIP and 28:7 K:BB ratio over 36.1 frames of work. CC Sabathia: He’s 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA. He most recently was crushed for seven runs off nine hits and two walks while striking six over 5.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Orioles on Friday. Sabathia started the season on fire, but has predictably come back down to Earth over his last two starts. The bottom line: Stroman played exceptionally well in the WBC this summer and that momentum has been carried over. We think he’s being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners -133 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -133 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Seattle Mariners. James Paxton is quietly flying “under the radar” right now and in our opinion, this is a much bigger mismatch than was the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Matt Shoemaker: He’s 1-1 with a 4.73 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits and two walks over five innings in an 8-5 win over the A’s on Wednesday. Shoemaker faced the Mariners on April 9th and gave up seven runs, but has since bounced back. Regardless, note that he was just 4-9 with a 4.64 ERA on the road last year. Paxton: He’s 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA. Most recently he scattered four hits over seven scoreless innings in an 8-0 win in Detroit on Wednesday. In his previous start, Paxton gave up five runs. But Paxton has not been scored on in any of his other four outings. The bottom line: To go along with his sparkling 1.39 ERA, Paxton has a tiny 0.84 WHIP, which is joined by his awesome 39:6 K/W ration in 32.1 innings of work. The Angels are pretty good against southpaws, but we think Paxton is the correct call here. Look for the big lefty to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart, play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports |
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05-01-17 | Brewers v. Cardinals -145 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the St. Louis Cardinals. Milwaukee held on for a 4-3 win over the Braves yesterday afternoon, while at the same time St. Louis wasted a great start by Mike Leake and fell apart late in a 5-4 setback to the Reds. We’re expecting Milwaukee to take a step back in the opener of this three-game series though and we look for the Cards to make amends for yesterday’s “brain fart” and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Zach Davies: He’s 2-2 with a 6.57 ERA. He comes in off a decent outing, scattering six hits and a walk over five scoreless frames in a 9-1 win over the Reds on Tuesday. It was his strongest outing of the 2017 campaign, so we’re not ready quite yet to say he’s turned the corner. He does have a decent 21:7 K:BB ratio over his last 20.1 innings of work, but owns a disastrous 1.86 WHIP (note that Davies owned a pedestrian 4.39 ERA on the road last year). Michael Wacha: He’s 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA. Wacha struggled last year, going 7-7 with a 4.62 ERA. He’s been strong from the very start this year though and he comes in off another decent outing, giving up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The bottom line: Wacha has posted four-straight quality starts and owns a superb 1.09 WHIP and 23:6 K:BB ratio over 24.2 innings of work. In our professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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04-30-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -134 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks managed to somehow fall 7-6 to the Rockies after holding a lead for much of the game yesterday. We think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe on Sunday though, swinging the value onto the home side. German Marquez: He’s 0-1 with an 18.00 ERA. In his first appearance of the year last Tuesday he was annihilated for eight runs off nine hits with three walks over four innings in a 15-12 loss to the Nationals, managing two K’s in the end. He’d go on to throw just 51 of his 85 pitches for strikes and note he was 0-1 with a 9.35 ERA on the road last year. Patrick Corbin: He’s 2-3 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off eight hits with two walks to go along with nine K’s over seven innings in a victory over the Padres on Tuesday. The bottom line: 2016 was Corbin’s worst statistical campaign, finishign 4-12 with a 5.58 ERA. He’s now in his fifth year, so he’s been around the block a couple times and there’s no question that he’s on top form at the moment. Clearly the same can’t be said about Marquez. Coors Field is a tough park for every pitcher, but Chase isn’t too far behind. All things considered, we think this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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04-29-17 | Phillies v. Dodgers -210 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. In this case, we feel that Brandon McCarthy and the home side could/should easily be much bigger ones: Zach Eflin: He’s 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA thus far. So far he’s giving up only three runs over his first two starts, but if we dig a little deeper we see that his 3.89 FIP and poor 5.3 K/9 ratio point to a rocky future. Note that he was a poor 2-3 with a 6.45 ERA on the road last year. McCarthy: He’s 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off five hits while walking three and striking out eight in an unfortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. So far the veteran has not allowed more than two runs in any of his three starts so far. The bottom line: Look for the Dodgers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-29-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -135 | 7-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that Zack Greinke and the home side have a much bigger advantage in this matchup than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Tyler Anderson: He’s 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA. He most recently was rocked for four runs off six hits over 5.2 innings in a no-decision in Monday’s eventual 8-4 win over the Nationals. So far Anderson has allowed under four runs just once this year. Note that he was particularly feeble on the road last season as well, going 0-4 with a 4.71 ERA. Greinke: He’s 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off six hits while striking out 11 in Monday’s 7-6 victory over the Padres. In 30.2 innings so far this year he’s struck out 31 and walked only six. The bottom line: Greinke has only allowed two home runs this year and in our opinion, is getting little respect from the oddsmakers here as they’re slow in recognizing how well he’s actually throwing right now. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers -173 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the Texas Rangers. We think that Yu Darvish and the home side have a major advantage today. In fact, we feel this line should/could easily be a lot higher. And that swings the value in favor of the undervalued home side. Jesse Chavez: He’s 2-3 with a 4.13 ERA. Most recently he allowed one run off four hits and four walks over seven innings in a win over the struggling Jays on Monday. Chavez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and note that he owns a poor 5.28 ERA lifetime at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Darvish: He’s 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA. He comes in off his best start of hte year, giving up two runs off five hits to go along with eight K’s in a 5-2 win over the Royals on Sunday. Darvish would go on to retire 17 batters via strikeout or groundout and his velocity is the best it’s been in any of his previous four seasons. The bottom line: Darvish looks primed for a big season after fully recovering from his Tommy John surgery. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-28-17 | Mariners v. Indians -192 | 3-1 | Loss | -192 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Carlos Carrasco and the home side could easily be much larger ones. This is the opener of a new series. The M’s come in off a satisfying 2-1 win in Detroit last night, while the Tribe will be eager to build off last night’s 4-3 victory over the Astros. Ariel Miranda: He’s 1-2 with a 4.35 ERA. Most recently he allowed four runs off seven hits while striking out three in a loss to the A’s on Saturday. So far he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency, with two poor outings and one great one. Note that he was 4-0 with a 3.16 ERA at home last year, compared to just 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the road. Carrasco: He’s 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless, giving up three hits and one walk while also posting eight K’s in a victory over the White Sox on Saturday. So far he sports a 0.80 WHIP and has struck out 27 batters through 27.1 innings of work. The bottom line: Note that Carrasco was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 9-5 with a 3.87 ERA in all “night” games. We have a hard time seeing the Mariners’ inconsistent offense mustering much of anything in this matchup, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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04-27-17 | Yankees +163 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-0 | Win | 163 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP DOG on the New York Yankees. Chris Sale has been the victim of poor run support this year, but he’s been absolutely fantastic for his new team. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off his best season ever as a pro, but has endured a more up-and-down start to the 2017 campaign. New York took Game 1, 3-1 last night and we think it has much better than just a “punchers chance” this evening as well: Tanaka: He’s 2-1 with a 6.00 ERA. He comes in with a ton of momentum after allowing one run and two walks to go along with six strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Wednesday. At first glance, Tanaka’s numbers aren’t great. But if you dig a little deeper, we see that he’s gotten progressively better after his season debut disaster. Note that he was 7-3 with a 2.34 ERA on the road last year. Sale: He’s 1-1 with a 0.91 ERA. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Sale right now, so we won’t. He’s absolutely domianting in every facet. The bottom line: But as mentioned off the top, Sale has gotten just four total runs of support as a Red Sox member. Clearly at some point he’s going to get the production he deserves, but we think the home side will once again struggle at the plate this evening in facing the “under the radar” Tanaka. Also note that New York has done well in this spot for bettors already this season by going 3-0 (+3 units) vs. southpaws, while Boston has struggled in this position by going just 3-6 (-3.2 units) in all “night” games. Play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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04-26-17 | Nationals +100 v. Rockies | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Coors park is a tough place for all pitchers. With that being said, we still think that this matchup favors Tanner Roark and the Nationals: Roark: He’s 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out five over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Friday. It wasn’t his best overall effort, but he still delivered his third straight quality start. Note that he was 7-4 with a 2.96 ERA on the road last year. Tyler Chatwood: He’s 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA. He’s coming off a gem, throwing a two-hit shutout while striking out four in a victory over the Giants on Saturday. Chatwood has been all of the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and note that he was just 4-8 with a 6.12 ERA at home last year. The bottom line: Note that Washignton is 9-2 (+7.2 units) this year in all “night” games, while Colorado is just 19-27 (-7.1 units) in its last 46 after allowing tens runs or more. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports |
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04-24-17 | Blue Jays +110 v. Angels | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto is starting to swing the bat a lot better and we think it’ll take advantage again tonight in another favorable matchup: Francisco Liriano: He’s 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA. Liriano comes in off his best start of the year and we look for that momentum to get carried over here. Most recently he’d go 5.1 scoreless innings against the Red Sox on Wednesday while striking out six and allowing four hits and a walk. That’s now back-to-back strong outings after getting shelled in his season debut. Jesse Chavez: He’s 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA thus far. Chavez was originally scheduled to start yesterday, but he entered the Friday night marathon game and had it pushed back till tonight. Chavez bounced back after giving up five runs over three innings to the Rangers, to give up two runs off seven hits over seven innings in a 3-0 loss to the Astros on Monday. The bottom line: We think this matchup favors Liriano, great price. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-24-17 | Cubs v. Pirates +115 | 14-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We think the home side has the advantage on the mound today: Brett Anderson: He’s 1-0 with a 4.40 ERA. Most recently he was shelled for six runs off eight hits while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Six of the eight hits went for extra’s. Chad Kuhl: He’s 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off three hits, while also striking out three over six innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to St. Louis on Tuesday. The bottom line: “Recent performance” points to Kuhl and the PIRATES as the correct call in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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04-24-17 | Rays v. Orioles +110 | 3-6 | Win | 110 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Orioles. We think Ubaldo Jimenez and the home side can do just enough to come away with the victory tonight. Chris Archer: The Rays’ ace is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA thus far. Most recently he was shelled for four runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out nine over five innings in an 8-7 win over Detroit. Archer labored, needing 104 pitches to get through the five innings of work. Has Archer turned the corner after a disastrous 2016? We think the sample size is still to small to properly judge. We will point out though that he was just 6-9 with a 5.44 ERA on the road last season. Jimenez: He’s 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA. Jimenez comes in with a ton of momentum after tossing 7.2 shutout innings against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two hits and four walks while also striking out three in the 2-0 victory. The bottom line: Note that Tampa is already just 1-6 (-4.9 units) on the road this year, while Baltimore is 9-2 (+7.1 units) in all “night” game and 6-2 (+3.7 units) at home. Play on the ORIOLES. AAA Sports |
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04-23-17 | Royals v. Rangers -155 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers. We think that Yu Darvish and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Darvish is 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA, while counterpart Jason Hammel is 0-1 with a 4.60. ERA. Texas has taken the first three in this series and it now has its sights set on the four-game sweep. Note that Darvish is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Hammel looked decent in his last start, giving up one run over six frames in a 2-1 loss to the Giants, but note that he’s 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.18 ERA in six appearances lifetime against the Rangers. Kansas City is struggling with production, which doesn’t bode well in facing Darvish here. Lay the price, play on TEXAS. AAA Sports |
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04-22-17 | Braves v. Phillies -117 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves are 6-10 and the Phillies are 7-9. We’re expecting Philadelphia to build off yesterday’s 4-3 victory. Jaime Garcia: He’s 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA. Right on line with last season’s 10-13, 4.67 finish. Most recently he gave up two runs off five hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision against the light-hitting Padres on Monday. It was the first time he’d made it into the seventh inning in three tries. Garcia struggled to open the year and note that he was just 4-4 with a poor 4.98 ERA on the road last season. Jerad Eickhoff: He’s 0-1 with a 2.75 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off eight hits and one walk across six innings in a no-decision against the Nationals, while also going on to strike out five. Eickhoff hit the strike zone at a 71 percent rate and his only walk was an intentional free pass. He’s posted three straight quality starts, but has received just four runs of support in that span. The bottom line: Eickhoff comes in on top form and faces a favorable opponent. We expect PHILADELPHIA to finally provide some run support for its third-year pro. AAA Sports |
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04-20-17 | Phillies v. Mets -171 | 6-4 | Loss | -171 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and in this case, we feel that the home side has a major advantage. One so big in fact, that we have no issues at all in laying this larger price. Aaron Nola: He’s 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits in a 3-2 loss to the Nationals on Friday. Nola needed 90 pitches to get through his appearance, so it was far from a perfect outing. Note that Nola was pretty poor in this spot a year ago, posting a ballooned 4.88 ERA on the road. Noah Syndergaard: He’s 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA. He left his last start early because of a torn fingernail, but he’s been cleared to go tonight. Note that he was dominant in this spot last season, going 9-7 with a 2.65 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: Syndergaard is worth the price of admission in this spot. As good as Nola has been, Syndergaard is at an entirely different level, especially in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price with confidence, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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04-19-17 | Angels v. Astros -174 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Houston Astros. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we absolutely feel that Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros are worth the price of admission in this matchup. JC Ramirez: He’s 2-1 with a 7.20 ERA. Ramirez made his first bit league start on Friday agains the Royals and was crushed for five runs off four hits and two walks over five innings of work. Dallas Keuchel: He’s 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA. Most recently he struck out seven and gave up one earned run off four hits and two walks over seven innings in a 7-2 win over the A’s on Friday. It was his third straight seven-inning effort to open 2017. The bottom line: Note that Keuchel owns a red hot groundball/flyball ratio of 40:15 to open the season. We think this line could be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, play on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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04-19-17 | Red Sox -105 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Boston Red Sox. Neither of these starters has looked very good to open the year. Francisco Liriano is coming off a decent effort, but his team is a disaster. We think the reigning AL Cy Young winner bounces back with his best effort of the season tonight as we look for the Red Sox to build off yesterday’s 8-7 series opening victory. Rick Porcello: He’s 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA. Most recently he gave up eight runs over 4.1 innings in a 10-2 loss to the Rays on Friday. Porcello has struggled to open the year, but we are expecting the veteran to finally settle down here. Note that he dominated in this spot for bettors last season, going 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA on the road. Liriano: He’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. In his last outing he gave up two runs over seven innings, but was still saddled with a 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Friday. Liriano has been consistently inconsistent in this spot, going just 6-8 with a pedestrian 4.03 ERA in all “night” games. The bottom line: The Jays are once again without slugger Josh Donaldson, which doesn’t bode well for their struggling line-up. All things considered, we geel we’re getting an excellent price on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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04-19-17 | Brewers v. Cubs -192 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that the home side has a major advantage, one so big that we have no issues whatsoever in laying this larger price. Tommy Milone: He’s 1-0 with a 7.36 ERA. So far he’s been wildly inconsistent this year. But that’s not surprising as he was just 3-4 with a 5.46 ERA last season, including only 2-4 with a 5.75 ERA on the road and a horrible 1-1 with a 7.16 ERA in all “day” games. Kyle Hendricks: He’s 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA. He’s coming off a career year in which he went 16-8 with a 2.15 ERA, so he’s also looked pretty shaky to open the 2017 campaign. That said, he wasn’t horrible in his last outing, giving up three runs off six hits and two walks across five frames in Friday’s 4-2 setback to Pittsburgh, while also striking out three. The bottom line: Hendricks was dominant in this spot last year, going 9-3 with a 2.42 ERA in all “day” games and 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA at home. We look for the defending champs to build off yesterday’s come from behind 9-7 victory and to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-17-17 | Rays v. Red Sox -141 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Boston Red Sox. Off a 7-5 victory on Sunday, we expect the Red Sox to close this series strong and find a way to get the job done: Blake Snell: He’s 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off two hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in an 8-4 setback to the Yankees. Note that Snell was just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.19 ERA. Steven Wright: He’s 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA. Wright is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for eight runsoff eight hits in a 12-5 loss to the Orioles. Note that Wright posted a 3.09 ERA in all “day” games last year. The bottom line: Note that Tampa Bay is just 105-130 (-31.1 units) in its last 235, while Boston is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in its last four “day” games. This is a tough spot for Snell. Conversely, after his atrocious start last time out, we’re expecting Wright to “right the ship.” Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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04-16-17 | Rockies v. Giants -119 | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco Giants. We think San Francisco bounces back here after falling 5-0 to the Rockies yesterday. Antonio Senzatela: He’s 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He earned his first career victory on Tuesday against the light-hitting Padres, giving up two runs and five hits over seven innings of work. Jeff Samardzija: He’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. After getting rocked in his first start, the veteran looked a lot better in his second, giving up three runs off five hits while walking four and striking out seven in a loss to the Diamondbacks. We think he’ll take another leap forward in his third outing as well. Note that he posted a respectable 3.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year. The bottom line: The book is still out on Senzatela in our opinion, making Samardzija the correct call here. San Francisco comes in ultra-focused after yesteday’s loss and finds a way to to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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04-16-17 | Pirates v. Cubs -168 | 6-1 | Loss | -168 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs. Pittsburgh took yesterday’s game 8-7, but we think that the defending champs bounce back here behind what we feel to be the vastly superior starter backing it. Jameson Taillon: He’s 0-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Most recently he gave up two runs off four hits and a walk in a no-decision agsint the Reds on Tuesday. Taillon has been decent in the early goings, but we’ll point out that if he did have one weak point last year, it was his play on the road as he’d go on to post a pedestrian 4.26 ERA away from friendly confines. Jon Lester: He’s 0-0 with a 1.64 ERA. He’s also coming off a no-decision, giving up one run off four hits while striking out seven in what turned out to be a 3-2 win for Chicago over the Dodgers. The veteran has now given up just two runs while striking out 14 over his first 11 innings of work. The bottom line: The sky is the limit for Taillon, but we feel he’s in way over his head here. We’re giving the big nod to Lester in this one and like the Cubs to answer after yesterday’s close defeat. Lay the price, play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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04-16-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -117 | 11-4 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Toronto Blue Jays. We released our MLB Game Of The Month play on the Toronto Blue Jays yesteday afternoon and they’d manage the 2-1, bottom of the ninth, solo-walk off home run victory to move to 2-9 on the year. The Orioles are still tops in the division at 7-3. We like the Jays to build off yesterday’s win and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Dylan Bundy: He’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA. He enters off a loss against the Red Sox, giving up three runs off seven hits and two walks spanning 6.1 innings. Bundy has looked decent so far this year and already beat Toronto in these team’s respective season opening series. We’ll point out though that Bundy struggled mightily in this spot last year, posting a poor 5.21 ERA on the road and an even worse 5.94 ERA in all “day” games. JA Happ: He’s 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off nine hits over 4.3 innings in an eventual 4-3 loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. One bright lining was that he’d go on to strikeout eight. The bottom line: So is it time to hit the panic button if you’re a Jays fan? We don’t think so. We also think that the veteran Happ has all the tools in place for an immediate bounce back, note that he was 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA at home last year and 10-2 with a 3.07 ERA in all “day” games. Lay the price, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-15-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Toronto Blue Jays. We were inches away from making this a “GAME OF THE YEAR” pick, but have downgraded it to the slightly less powerful “GAME OF MONTH” status. Regardless, we absolutely love this selection as we expect the clearly underachieving 1-9 Toronto Blue Jays to find a way to get a victory over division leading 7-2 Baltimore this afternoon. Alec Asher: He was 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA last year. He was just recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to make this tough start North of the border. Marco Estrada: He’s 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA this year, most recently giving up five runs off seven hits over five innings in a 7-2 loss to the Rays on Sunday. Two home runs were his undoing. The bottom line: Here’s the perfect opponent to finally get untracked against as we expect Asher to struggle in this environment. Estrada was 2-2 with a 2.98 ERA in all “day” games last season. Lay the very reasonable price, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-14-17 | Pirates v. Cubs -177 | 4-2 | Loss | -177 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and for the most part, the best indicator we have when properly assessing starting pitching is “recent performance” and strong trends. In this case, we feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Gerrit Cole: He’s 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA this year. Last Sunday he went six frames against the light-hitting Braves and gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks with four K’s. Note that he was just 2-5 with a pedestrian 4.21 ERA in all “day” games last season. Kyle Hendricks: He’s 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA so far this year, earning the victory on Saturday over Milwaukee despite not being at his absolute best, giving up four runs off five hits and a walk over six frames. It was two home runs which attributed to the higher than normal run count (last year Hendricks allowed just 15 in 30 starts). The bottom line: A date at home is just what the doctor ordered for Hendricks, last year he was 9-2 with a 1.35 ERA at Wrigley (also 9-3 with a highly respectable 2.42 ERA in all “day” games). We like the rock-steady Hendricks over the volatile Cole in this matchup. Lay the price, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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04-13-17 | Pirates v. Red Sox -140 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez struggled in his opening start, but Pirates’ hurler Chad Kuhl wasn’t much better in his opener. We think these starters are a “wash,” but will give the big nod to Boston at the plate at home and that’s going to be more than enough in our opinion to tip the scales in favor of the Red Sox. Kuhl: He looked pretty ordinary in his start against the Braves, but managed the win in the end. Kuhl has looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. Note though that Pittsburgh has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors already this year, going 0-2 (-2.3 units) against southpaws. Rodriguez: He gave up four runs off five hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings in a 4-1 loss to Detroit on Saturday. Note though that he’d post a respectable 3.69 ERA in all “day” games last year. The bottom line: Kuhl may have looked better in this first start than Rodriguez, but he holds no advantage over him in this spot whatsoever. With the starters taken out of the equation, we have a hard time going against the league’s most prolific offense from a year ago on its own field. All things considered, we absolutely believe that we’re getting a very fair price in this matchup. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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04-12-17 | Brewers v. Blue Jays -172 | 2-0 | Loss | -172 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
This 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT is on the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are back home and they’ll look to advantage of friendly confines. Chase Anderson looked sharp in his first start for the Brewers this year, but the Jays’ Marcus Stroman has been performing at a very high level for months, coming off a dominating performance in the WBC event this summer and also taking his first game of the year against the Rays. As good as Anderson looked, we’re giving Stroman the big nod in this matchup. Andreson: He allowed one run and three hits over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Rockies in his opener. We think the book though is still clearly out on Anderson, he was just 9-11 with a 4.39 ERA last year and only 2-6 with a 4.92 ERA on the road. Stroman: As mentioned off the top, Stroman has been dominating for more than just a few weeks. In the victory over Tampa Bay he gave up just one earned run off six hits over seven innings of work. The bottom line: We like Stroman to take advantage of familiar surroundings and for the JAYS underperforming line-up to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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04-12-17 | Cardinals v. Nationals -200 | 6-1 | Loss | -200 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Mike Leake: He gave up one run off six hits with one walk over eight innings in an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Friday. Leake received no run support whatsoever and would also go on to strike out six. Leake didn’t have an exceptional spring and he was just 9-12 with a pedestrian 4.69 ERA last year. That included a 2-7, 4.50 ERA record on the road. Max Scherzer: He gave up two runs off four hits with two walks while striking out seven over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Phillies on Friday. Scherzer has posted a sub-1.00 WHIP in two of his last three seasons and was 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA last year. That included going 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home. The bottom line: Leake looked impressive in his debut, but we’re not convinced that he’s suddenly turned a corner and will now be among the elite pitchers in the league. If he’s proven anything in his career, it’s that he’s been consistently inconsistent. Conversely, barring disaster Scherzer should be competing for the Cy Young. Lay the price with confidence, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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04-11-17 | Brewers v. Blue Jays -176 | 4-3 | Loss | -176 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Toronto enjoys a significant advantage. These are two teams which had high hopes heading into the season, but after the first two series the Brewers are just 2-5 and the Jays are only 1-5. Both were decent in interleague play last year, with the Brewers finishing 11-9 and the Jays going 13-7. Wily Peralta: He beat Colorado 6-1 in his first start of the year, allowing no runs and three hits over five innigns of work. Last year though he was just 7-11 with a 4.86 ERA in 23 starts, including only 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA in ten starts on the road. He’s also only 2-6 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. JA Happ: Happ fell to the Orioles 3-1 in his opener, allowing all three runs off five hits over seven innings of work. Last year he was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA overall and 11-2 with a 2.90 ERA at home. The bottom line: Note that Milwaukee is just 16-49 in its last 65 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, while Toronto is 20-7 in its last 27 interleague home starts against right-handed starters. Enough is enough, the underachieving JAYS return home for the first time this season and we’re expecting some big time production against this suspect starter. Lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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04-10-17 | Dodgers +158 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 53 m | Show | |
This an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. We think that Alex Wood and the Dodgers have more than a “punchers chance” in this one. Wood: He started the season in the bullpen, but has since been put back into the rotation because of injury. Wood owns a 2.85 ERA in 41 relief innings and a 3.40 ERA in 458.1 innings as a starter. Note that he was 1-2 with a 2.64 ERA in all “night” games last season. Jon Lester: He threw five innings in his opening day no-decision to St. Louis on Sunday, giving up one earned run off seven hits while striking out seven and walking one. Lester is coming off a career year, but clearly faces one of his toughest opponents of the season so far today. The bottom line: This is the official banner raising celebration for the Cubs as they return to Chicago for their first home game. We think this is going to be a distraction today for the Cubs. Chicago also comes in complacent after winning its first two series of the year, while LA comes in with momentum after posting a 10-6 win in Colorado last night. We think the conditions are right for the upset, play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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04-10-17 | Mets -146 v. Phillies | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the New York Mets. Despite throwing on the road, we think that Jacob DeGrom should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. DeGrom: He’s coming off a dominant season opener, holding Atlanta scoreless over six innings on Wednesday, striking out six and allowing just two hits and a walk in the unfortunate no-decision. Jerad Eickhoff: He’s also coming off a good first start, allowing two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a 2-0 loss to the Reds on Wednesday. The bottom line: Eickhoff has gotten either one or zero runs of offense in 18 of his 42 career starts. DeGrom looks poised for a big season after playing through most of 2016 with injury as his fast ball reached almost 100 MPH in his series opener. The METS now look to build off yesterday’s 5-3 win and catch the Phillies complacent after their series victory over Washington. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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04-10-17 | Red Sox -103 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Boston Red Sox. After dropping the first two games of this series, Boston bounced back with a 7-5 win on Sunday. The Red Sox will now look to split the series on Monday afternoon and they have to be feeling pretty confident in sending ace Chris Sale to the hill. Sale: He received a no-decision in his first start for his new team, going seven scoreless and allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out seven. Last year he was particularly effective on the road, going 8-5 with a 2.85 ERA. Justin Verlander: He beat the White Sox 6-3 in his first start of the year, allowing two earned runs off six hits and two walks while striking out ten over 6.1 innings. The bottom line: Note that Boston is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four after scoring seven or more runs, while Detroit is just 1-3 (-2.5 units) in is last four after allowing seven or more runs. The Red Sox had the No. 1 offense in the league last year and until yesterday, it had been stuck in neutral to open the 2017 campaign. As good as Verlander looked in his first start, we’re giving the big nod to Sale in this matchup. All things considered, we feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup, play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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04-09-17 | Giants -150 v. Padres | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the San Francisco Giants. One of these starters dominated last year and the other didn’t. One of these starters dominated his opening day start, while the other did not. Johnny Cueto: He was 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA last year. He had a strong spring, but looked pretty pedestrian in his 2017 opener by allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over just five innings. He did go on to strike out five and managed to earn the victory. Note that Cueto was particularly effective on the road last year, going 10-2 with a 2.78 ERA. Clayton Richard: He was 3-4 with a 3.33 ERA last year. Richard had a poor spring, but shutout the Dodgers in his season opener, going eight innings and allowing only five hits and two walks with five K’s. LA had just put up 14 runs the night previous, so Richard may have been the beneficiary of a mental lapse from the Dodgers in that one. Also note that he owned a poor 41:31 K:BB ratio last year. The bottom line: We love Cueto to settle down here and get back on track in this favorable matchup. Richard just threw the best game of his life and all signs point to an immediate return to mediocrity. Lay the price, play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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04-09-17 | Royals +178 v. Astros | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Royals. Nathan Karns wasn’t at his best in his first appearance this year, but we think he can bounce back in this spot and get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Karns: He was forced into action in relief of Ian Kennedy in Wednesday’s 9-1 loss to Minnesota, giving up four runs off two hits over 0.2 innings. In his final spring tune-up though, he went six scoreless in a 6-2 win over the Padres, allowing four hits and no walks while stirking out nine. Karns was super accurate with 54 of his 72 pitches going for strikes. Lance McCullers: The 23 year old mystified the light-hitting Mariners in his first start of the year, allowing one run off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a 2-1 win over Seattle. McCullers though had a horrible spring and in his final tune-up he was rocked for five runs off five hits and two walks over four innings in a loss to the Cubs. The bottom line: So is Karns as bad as his first appearance this season would make him out to be? And is McCullers as awesome as his first start of the year would indicate? We think the answer to both is “no.” This is a very winnable game for the underachieving ROYALS and the value is simply too good to turn down. AAA Sports |
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04-08-17 | Giants -210 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -210 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the San Francisco Giants. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Madison Bumgarner should in fact be a much larger fav in this massive mismatch on the mound. Bumgarner: He received a no-decision in his opening start against the Rays, giving up three runs off six hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks over seven impressive innings. He also crushed two homers himself. Jhoulys Chacin: He was shelled for nine runs off eight hits and two walks over 3.1 innings in Monday’s loss to the Dodgers. Note that he was 4-7 with a 4.92 ERA in all “night” games a year ago. The bottom line: This is mismatch of David and Goliath proportions, except in this version, Goliath smashes the underdog into the upper-deck. Lay the price, play on SAN FRANCISCO. AAA Sports |
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04-08-17 | Dodgers -188 v. Rockies | 2-4 | Loss | -188 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the LA Dodgers. Coors field is difficult even for pitchers like Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw. However, it’s also difficult on Colorado’s starters as well. This is a big pitching mismatch and we’re not expecting any crazy upsets once it’s all said and done. Kershaw: He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA after giving up two runs off two hits with eight strikeouts and no walks across seven innings in Monday’s 14-2 season-opening win over the Friars. He only needed 84 pitches and note that he was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 8-3 with a 1.89 ERA in all “night” games. Jon Gray: He struggled in his first start, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out seven in a no-decision on Monday. While he was 7-2 at home last year, he owned a pedestrian 4.30 ERA. The bottom line: After falling 2-1 in the series opener yesterday, we expect the hard-hitting DODGERS to find a way to get the job done with Kershaw on the mound tonight. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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04-08-17 | Cubs -180 v. Brewers | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Chicago Cubs. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Kyle Hendricks has a major advantage over his suspect counterpart, so much so that it makes this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. In fact, all things considered we feel this line could in fact be a lot larger. Hendricks: Hendricks comes in off a career camapign in 2016, finishing 16-8 with a 2.15 ERA. He dominated in his final spring tune up, giving up two hits and no runs over five innings against Houston on Friday. Note that he was particularly sharp in all “night” games last season, finishing with a tiny 1.83 ERA over 12 such instances. Tommy Milone: He struggled this spring with a 9.69 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 13 innings. The only reason Milone is in the starting lineup is because of an injury to Junior Guerra. Note that Milone owned a poor 5.65 ERA in all home games last year. The bottom line: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. Hendricks has the Cy Young on his mind this year, while Milone is destined to get the hook early in this one. Lay the price, play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
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04-08-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -173 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we feel that Michael Wacha has a major advantage over his suspect counterpart, so much so that we have on problems whatsoever in laying this larger price. In fact, we definitely feel this line should be a lot larger. Bronson Arroyo: In his most recent spring start, Arroyo allowed three home runs over 4.1 innings of work. Arroyo hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2014. Michael Wacha: He’s coming off his worst ever campaign, but he had a strong spring, finishing with a 2.42 ERA and 22 strikeouts over his 26 frames. Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 14 appearances against the Reds. The bottom line: Wacha is also 8-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 15 career starts in April. The Cards pitching has looked great this year, but the offense has been atrocious. Behind a concerted effort though, expect that to change in a big way this afternoon. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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04-06-17 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Toronto Blue Jays. We’ve played on Toronto in each of its two opening season losses. Both games were close. The Jays starting pitching has looked pretty good, but the offense has looked downright bad to this point. Kevin Gausmann and Dylan Bundy aren’t exactly “Murderers Row.” With those two awkward contests behind them though, we think the Jays can bounce back in what we believe to be a very favorable matchup on the mound. Marcus Stroman: He comes in with a ton of momentum after dominating the WBC event, leading USA to its first ever title. Stroman would go on to throw six shutout innings, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out three over Puerto Rico. Blake Snell: He had a poor spring, most recently getting shelled for four runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his final tune-up last Saturday. Snell was 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA last season and will be given an opportunity to throw his first full campaign as a starter. The bottom line: Tampa took two of three from the Yanks and is content. The Jays are desperate after dropping two close ones to the O’s. Look for TORONTO’s big bats to finally wake up here and put some production on the board. Stroman will also outduel his younger counterpart. AAA Sports |
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04-05-17 | Braves v. Mets -190 | 3-1 | Loss | -190 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Mets. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. Bartolo Colon has had an impressive career, but we think that a poor spring is foreshadowing what will be a difficult season for the veteran on his new team. Colon: He came over from the Mets in the offseason and was 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA last year. Colon struggled in the spring though, posting a 9.20 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and 9:6 K:BB ratio over 15 innings in March. Jacob DeGrom: He was 7-8 with 3.04 ERA last season. He finished spring with a 2.93 ERA and 17:2 K:BB ratio over 15.1 innings of work. The bottom line: DeGrom was particularly dominant at home last year, going 5-3 with a tiny 2.11 ERA. We’re expecting a blowout from start to finish, lay the price with confidence, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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04-05-17 | Blue Jays -117 v. Orioles | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* DIVISIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. We had a play on Toronto in Game 1 of this series and the Orioles would manage a walk off home run in extra innings for the 3-2 victory. All signs point to a bounce back here though with the Jays sending out the resurgent JA Happ to the hill. Happ: The southpaw was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last year and comes in off a dominant spring, going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA to go along with eight K’s and no walks spanning 11.1 innings of work. Note that Happ was particularly effective on the road last season, going 9-2 with a 3.43 ERA. Dylan Bundy: He was 10-6 with a 4.02 ERA last year. Bundy was a bust in the spring though, finishing with an ugly 7.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9:4 K:BB ratio spanning 17 innings of work. Bundy would also allow a team-high six home runs this spring, three of which came in his final tune-up. The bottom line: The Jays looked flat in that opener, but have a big opportunity tonight to turn the tables. Happ is cruising and locked on target right now, while Bundy enters the new season with more questions than answers. All things considered, we feel this is a great price. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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04-04-17 | Padres v. Dodgers -205 | 4-0 | Loss | -205 | 31 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the LA Dodgers. The Dodgers crushed the Padres on Monday and we think another blowout is in the cards on Tuesday night as well. We feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. Clayton Richard: The fact that Richard is the No. 2 starter speaks volumes to how disastrous the Padres starting rotation really is. He had a poor spring and was bad on the road last season, going 1-2 with a 3.87 ERA. Kenta Maeda: He was 16-11 with a 3.48 ERA last year and comes in off a fantastic spring, in his final tune-up he’d throw three perfect innings against the Angels on Thursday. Maeda was 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA at home last year. The bottom line: Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. The Padres light hitting lineup is going to struggle in this matchup, while the big bats of the DODGERS are in line for another productive night at the plate. Lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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04-04-17 | Yankees v. Rays -117 | 5-0 | Loss | -117 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN is on the Tampa Bay Rays. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. We think that the home side has the slight advantage in that department tonight and that it’ll be more than enough to secure the victory once it’s all said and done. Tampa took Game 1 of this series 7-3 on Sunday CC Sabathia: He was 9-12 with a 3.91 ERA in 30 starts last year. Sabathia has gotten out to some slow starts in recent years, posting a poor 4.38 ERA in his last 75 March/April starts. He’s also struggled at Tropicana throughout his career going a sub-par 5-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 20 outings there. Jake Odorizzi: He was 10-6 with a 3.69 ERA in 33 starts last year. He’s just 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA lifetime against the Yanks, but he was tough at home last season by going 5-4 with a respectable 3.55 ERA in 17 outings. The bottom line: New York struggled to put runs on the board last year, ranked 22nd overall with 4.20 per game. Tampa was even worse than the Yanks offensively last season, but we’re expecting it to build off its impressive opening night performance, in which it crushed New York’s No. 1 pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Great price, play on the RAYS. AAA Sports |
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04-03-17 | Blue Jays -104 v. Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE WEEK on the Toronto Blue Jays. These were the two wild card teams from the AL last year and the Jays would go on to beat the Orioles in the one game playoff. Toronto then went on to beat the Rangers, before then falling to the Tribe in the AL Championship series. Marco Estrada gets the call for Toronto, he finished 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA last year. The Jays lost Edwin Encarnacion to Cleveland, but the line-up is still stacked with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki and more. The home side counters with Kevin Gausman, who was 9-12 with a 3.61 ERA last year. Baltimore has some big bats in its lineup as well with Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado just to name a couple. The bottom line: We think Estrada is the superior starter in this matchup. We also think Toronto is the deeper team. In our opinion, that tips the scales in the BLUE JAYS’ favor. AAA Sports |
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10-25-16 | Cubs -105 v. Indians | 0-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP PLAY on the Chicago Cubs. REASONING: We think Jon Lester has a slight edge over counterpart Corey Kluber and we also believe that Chicago has the advantage at the plate. The visitors offer great value in Game 1. Lester has given up two runs over 21 innings, giving him a sparkling 0.86 ERA in the postseason. Lester has also dominated the Tribe over his career, going 7-1 with a 3.03 ERA over 95 innings of work. Lester also has a major advantage in the experience department, as he’d post a 3-0, 0.43 ERA World Series record while with the Red Sox. And as mentioned off the top, the Cubbies’ big bats are once again firing on all cylinders as the team would plate 23 runs in the last three games of the NLCS. Kluber has so far tossed 13.1 scoreless innings in two home starts in the postseason. Kluber has also had success against Chicago, but note that Cleveland averaged just 2.4 runs per game in the ALCS, compared to Chicago’s 6.2 runs per game in six games in the NLCS. The bottom line: Lester gets the slight nod on the mound, Chicago gets the big nod at the plate and with those two crucial factors on our side, there’s no question in our minds that the value in Game 1 is on the visitors. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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10-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +125 | 0-5 | Win | 125 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs. REASONING: Is Clayton Kershaw a better pitcher than Kyle Hendricks? The answer is obviously “yes.” Has Kershaw been a better pitcher than Hendricks this season? We’d say “no” to that one. Kershaw’s and Hendricks’ regular season records are very similar, but the Dodgers’ ace missed a couple of months with injury. Hendricks has been rock solid from start to finish and he’s been particularly good at home. Our point being, of course Kershaw will go down in history as a better pitcher than Hendricks, but at this exact moment in time, we’re going to call the two a “wash” today. So then the focus shifts to other factors, like momentum. We’ve always been of the thought that “momentum” can be a very tangible factor in the postseason and in our opinion, clearly the hard-hitting Cubbies have it back on their side after back-to-back break-out performances at the plate. This one’s a no-brainer for us as we feel that Hendricks and surging CHICAGO offer tremendous value at home this evening. AAA Sports |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays -183 | 4-2 | Loss | -183 | 34 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based completely on common sense. It’s do or die time for Toronto, a 3-0 hole would almost assuredly spell doom for the Jays. Neither of these starters instills much confidence though. The Indians have gotten amazing pitching so far in the postseason, but we think that’s going to end tonight. Trevor Bauer faced Toronto twice this year and did well, but he’s struggled with the Jays throughout his career and it’s certainly not going to be easy throwing in this hostile environment. Marcus Stroman also faced Cleveland twice this year and did exceptionally well. Stroman looked good in his start against the Orioles in the Wild Card as well and we think he’ll be a difference maker this evening. The Blue Jays’ big bats are about to ride the wave of emotion at the Rogers Center, all signs point to a blowout of epic proportions. Lay the price with confidence on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers +140 v. Nationals | 4-3 | Win | 140 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SIDE WINNER on the LA Dodgers. Setting the scene: Rich Hill took the loss in Game 2 for the Dodgers, while Max Scherzer struggled in the Game 1 loss for the Nationals. Both had very good regular seasons. We’ll call these starters a “wash.” We simply feel that this is a matchup which favors the visitors, based primarily upon some strong ATS trends. The bottom line: Both teams are filled with dangerous offensive weapons, but note that LA is 4-1 its last five after scoring six or more runs in its previous outing, while Washington is just 7-9 (-5.8 units) in its last 16 when playing with a day off. LA has Urias waiting in the wings if Hill falters, so in this winner takes all format, we think the value is simply too good to turn down on the undervalued visitors. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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10-09-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -183 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Momentum can sometimes be a very tangible thing and the Toronto Blue Jays return home with a ton of it. Clearly the Rangers will be “desperate” for a victory today as they look to stave off elimination, but so too will Toronto as it looks to close this series and rest up for the conference championship. Colby Lewis: He finished 6-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He did decently against Toronto in two starts this year, giving up just four runs over 14 cominbed frames of work, but over his career he’s struggled mightily against it, going 3-6 with a terrible 6.16 ERA. Aaron Sanchez: He finished 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Sanchez faced the Rangers in all five games of the ALDS last sason and was dominant, going 5.1 scoreless innings. The bottom line: The Jays’ offense is firing on all cylinders at the most opportune of times, having already belted out six home runs over the first two games. Keep your eyes on Troy Tulowitzki, who is 5 for 9 with five RBI’s. The Jays’ bullpen and closers have also been superior in this series and we’re expecting all of these strong trends to continue this evening. Lay the price with confidence on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays +118 v. Rangers | 5-3 | Win | 118 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: Toronto had a quick turn around after its thrilling AL Wildcard win at home over Baltimore, but the victory has seemingly woken up a Jays’ lineup which struggled for the most part in the second half of the season, as the visitors would take Game 1 of this ALDS by a decisive 10-1 margin. “Momentum” is a very real factor at this time of year and we think Toronto keeps it rolling. Toronto: JA Happ went 20-4 this year. Note that he was particularly effective on the road, going 9-2 with 3.43 ERA. Texas: Yu Darvish was 7-5 with a 3.41 ERA. He was 6-2 at home, behind a pedestrian 4.26 ERA. The bottom line: Darvish showed flashes of brilliance at times this year, but he also looked pretty bad in others. Happ’s amazing consistency can’t be overlooked in this matchup. The Jays are playing with a very visible chip on their collective shoulders right now and we think that last night’s offensive explosion is carried over into this one. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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09-30-16 | A's v. Mariners -188 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 5* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Seattle Mariners. Setting the scene: No need to overthink this one. While their playoff hopes are slim, the Mariners still do have a mathematical shot at making the postseason and because of that, we’re going to lay the price with confidence on the highly motivated home side. Raul Alcantara: He’s 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA. He most recently gave up four earned runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in a 5-0 loss to Texas on Saturday. Alcantara has now given up one at least one home run in each of his last four appearances. Taijuan Walker: He’s 7-11 with a 4.35 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits and two walks in 5.1 innings in a win over the Twins on Sunday, also going on to post seven K’s. The bottom line: Desperation breeds motivation, lay the price with confidence as we look for the visitors to simply go through the motions and for the home side to do come in razor focused on the task at hand. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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09-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -165 | 4-0 | Loss | -165 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays. Setting the scene: The stakes are high North of the border right now, as Baltimore and Toronto battle it out for wild card positioning. The Jays took Game 1 of this important series, while the Orioles bounced back with a 2 out, top of the 9th, 2-run shot, 3-2 victory in Game 2 last night. Suffice it to say, we think the stage is now set for the home side to respond in a big way. Ubaldo Jimenez: He’s 7-12 with a 5.71 ERA. For the most part he’s been terrible this year. He’s been a little better of late, but in his last outing he’d fall apart again, giving up four runs in the setback. Note that he’s 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA on the road this season. Marcus Stroman: He’s 9-9 with a 4.34 ERA. He enters off a gem against the Yanks on Saturday, going seven scoreless and striking out five. Stroman has now posted three straight quality starts and in four of his last five overall. He now looks to close the season with a double digit win mark and move above .500. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 4.55 ERA at home. The bottom line: For us, this one comes down to the starting pitchers. Jimenez has proved time and again that he can’t be trusted in these situations and whle Stroman has admittedly struggled with consistency as well this year, he comes into this big game on top form. We think the hard-throwing right-hander easily outduels his struggling counterpart and expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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09-28-16 | Reds +150 v. Cardinals | 2-1 | Win | 150 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Cincinnati Reds. Setting the scene: We had a play on the Cardinals last night and they’d pull away for the 12-5 victory. We’re going the other way today though as we think Anthony DeSclafani has a big advantage over the inconsistent Mike Leake. DeSclafani: He’s 8-5 with a 3.38 ERA. He’s 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six career outings against St. Louis. He’s struggled down the stretch a bit, but note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA on the road and is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA in all night games. Leake: He’s 9-11 with a 4.72 ERA. He most recently gave up five earned runs off seven hits over just three innings in a 5-0 loss to the Cubs on Friday. Leake is stumbling to the finish line, having given up 14 runs on 29 hits over 19.2 innings spanning four starts. Note that he’s 2-6 with a 4.56 ERA at home. The bottom line: Leake owns an 8.31 ERA against the Reds this year. The pressure is on St. Louis, as it sits a game back of San Fran and 1.5 back of the Mets with five games remaining. I think the home side falters tonight and the visitors successfully play the role of spoiler. Play on the REDS. AAA Sports |
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09-27-16 | Rockies +176 v. Giants | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* paly on the Colorado Rockies. Setting the scene: San Francisco is in the hunt for a wild card spot, but Colorado is looking to play spoiler tonight. The visitors’ rookie hurler has been red hot in his limited time, while the home sides’ veteran has struggled with consistency since coming over to his new team. The conditions are prime for an upset tonight! German Marquez: He’s 1-0, 3.48 ERA. Most recently he faced the hard-hitting Cardinals on Wednesday, giving up one run off four hits to to along with three K’s and just one walk over five innings in his first major league victory. So far he owns a very respectable 3.48 ERA over his first four big league appearances. And so far he’s given up just one run over eight innings of work. Between Double-A and Triple-A he’d go on to record a 155:29 K:BB ratio. Matt Moore: He’s 11-12 with a 4.34 ERA. He most recently allowed six runs over one inning in a 9-3 loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. For the most part Moore has been a disaster this year, note the he’s just 3-9 with a 5.34 ERA in all night games to date. The bottom line: We think the visitors offer great value here as Marquez remains an unknown to this struggling Giants’ lineup. Play on COLORADO. AAA Sports |
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09-27-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -215 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Setting the scene: After getting hammered 15-2 yesterday, we’re expecting the home side to bounce back in a big way this evening with its ace on the mound. Robert Stephenson: He’s 2-2 with a 5.59 ERA. He’s so far struggled in the majors, most recently he gave up four runs off eight hits over just three innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. The rookie has now allowed four runs in three consecutive starts and in four of his six overall big league outings. He’s also given up seven home runs in just 29 innings of work. Adam Wainwright: He’s 12-9 with a 4.57 ERA. He enters off a win despite not being at his best against the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing four runs to go along with four strikeouts over six innings. We’ll give Wainwright a pass though, as all things considered it was a decent performance at hitter friendly Coors Field. Note that he owns a 2.92 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. The bottom line: St. Louis is fighting for a wild card spot. Cincinnati comes in complacent after yesteday’s big win. Lay the price with confidence on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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09-27-16 | Mets -162 v. Marlins | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on the New York Mets. Setting the scene: The Marlins managed to gut out a win for fallen teammate Jose Fernandez in yesterday’s series opener, but we think the visitors bounce back with their ace on the mound tonight. Noah Syndergaard: He’s 13-9 with a 2.63 ERA. Syndergaard had his last start skipped over because of strep throat, but has been cleared to go today. He’ll also line up to make the last regular season start if needed to get into the playoffs. Syndergaard will look to make the most of what is likely his final outing of the regular season though, note that he’s been at his best on the road this year, going 7-3 with a 2.35 ERA. Tom Koehler: He’s 9-12 with a 4.02 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over four innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. Koehler has been pretty good this year, but he’s been regressing for a while down the stretch, walking 13 total batters over his last five starts combined. He’s 4-6 with a 3.87 ERA at home. The bottom line: We have a very hard time seeing the home side duplicating yesterday’s heroic effort. With that emotionally draining victory out of the way, this indeed sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the home side. Lay the price with confidence on Syndergaard and the METS. AAA Sports |
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09-26-16 | Brewers v. Rangers -167 | 8-3 | Loss | -167 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Texas Rangers. Setting the scene: Martin Perez is 10-10 with a 4.14 ERA. Matt Garza is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA. Perez though is likely the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the game this year and that fact makes this a price which we have no issues at all in laying. Garza: He just gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Pirates on Tuesday. Garza is a horrible 1-6 with a 5.54 ERA on the road. Perez: He gave up two runs over seven innings against the Angels on Monday. Perez is just 2-8 with a 5.78 ERA on the road, but is 8-2 with a 2.65 ERA at home. The bottom line: No need to overthink this one. Texas now gears up for a big playoff push and will look to “hit the ground running.” This is a major mismatch, lay the price with confidence on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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09-26-16 | Cubs -150 v. Pirates | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Cubs. Setting the scene: Chicago looks to keep the momentum rolling right into the postseason, as this is the second last to series of the year for all teams. Pittsburgh has lost two in a row and sits just one game under .500 at 77-78. It’s 4.5 games out of the second NL wild-card playoff spot with a series in St. Louis to end the year. The Cubs could effectively put a nail in the Pirates’ coffin with a win tonight. Kyle Hendricks: Chicago looks for its 100th win tonight after besting St. Louis 3-1 on Sunday. The Cubs look to take advantage of a Pirates team which is just 37-40 at PNC Park. Hendricks is 15-8 with a 2.06 ERA this year and he’s been even better down the stretch, going 11-2 with a 1.37 ERA over his last 17 outings. He’s already beaten Pittsburgh twice this season, allowing one earned run over 13 innings. Chad Kuhl: He’s 5-3 with a 3.73 ERA. He’s been decent of late, winning his past two starts and giving up just three earned runs in the process. He’s had major issues against Chicago though, going 0-1 in two starts with an 8.59 ERA. The bottom line: Chicago can smell the blood in the water. A 100th victory of the year, combined with sending the Pirates packing adds up to our MLB GAME OF THE WEEK. AAA Sports |
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09-22-16 | Angels v. Astros -170 | 2-0 | Loss | -170 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Houston Astros. Setting the scene: Houston looks to keep the momentum rolling, after taking two of three from Seattle, the Astros come off a perfect sweep of the A’s this week. LA lost two of three to Texas and would seem to be in over its head in what we feel to be a clear mismatch on the mound. Ricky Nolasco: He’s 6-14 with a 4.78 ERA. Nolasco has struggled with consistency this season, note that he’s just 4-7 with a 4.93 ERA on the road thus far. Mike Fiers: He’s 11-7 with a 4.46 ERA. He most recently allowed just three hits and one walk with four strikeouts over six shutout frames in a victory over the Mariners on Saturday. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.99 ERA at home to date. The bottom line: Motivation is the deciding factor here for us, Houston sits one game behind the Tigers for the second wild-card slot and we’re fully expecting the home side to keep the foot on the gas. Fiers has been far from perfect this season, but we’re also going to give him the big nod in this matchup. Lay the price with confidence on the ASTROS. AAA Sports |
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