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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-20-19 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Chicago-Detroit The Blackhawks have seen the Over hit in nine straight games now and the last one was the highest scoring yet as they beat Ottawa 8-7. That was a matchup of the two teams that have given up the most goals in the league. Here, Chicago will face a Detroit team that isn't quite as inept as Ottawa defensively, but is still bottom tier. So while we may not see another game with 15 goals scored, an Over is still a strong likelihood. During this nine-game Over stretch, Chicago has scored four or more goals itself seven times. They've scored at least five goals themselves six times. Detroit just got done playing a home and home against Philadelphia. They lost both games, one of them a 6-5 final. One positive for the Red Wings is that they are getting plenty of shots on goal of late. They've averaged 35.4 shots on goal the last five games. Not only have the last nine Chicago games gone Over the total, so too have 16 of the last 18. Add another to the list. Play OVER Chicago-Detroit AAA |
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02-20-19 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-19-19 | Maple Leafs v. Blues -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a *10* play on St. Louis St. Louis continues to be the hottest team in the league as their remarkable run has now hit 10 in a row. Their last three wins have all been shutouts and all three games were on the road. Tonight, I look for this win streak to continue as they get to play host to a Toronto team whose number they have had for the past couple seasons. It's been five straight wins over the Maple Leafs (an old Norris Division rival!) including 4-1 way back in October. At that time, the Blues were playing nowhere near as well as they are now. The Leafs just got shutout in Arizona and while its been awhile since they've lost back to back games, I see that fate befalling them today. This has been a truly dominant stretch by the Blues, outscoring opponents 40-14. It's been led by goalie Binnington, who is 12-1-1 as a starter with a 1.43 GAA and .943 save percentage. You really can't go against this Blues team right now. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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02-19-19 | Bradley v. Drake -4 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DRAKE Give credit to Drake as the season-ending injury to leading scorer Nick Norton has not really derailed their season in any way. Sure, initially, it looked like it might. Norton tore his ACL back in early January and the Bulldogs lost the next two games. But they've since won 9 of 12 and are still tied for 1st in the Missouri Valley at 9-5 SU. The team they are tied with is Loyola Chicago, who should be a familiar name based on last season's run to the Final Four. Drake has lost twice already to the Ramblers, so that puts them at a disadvantage for that top seed in next month's conference tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season could certainly go a long way and I don't see the Bulldogs losing at home to a Bradley team that's due for a letdown after four straight wins, three of them upsets. The Braves got blown out by Drake (lost by 17) on their home floor last month, and I don't see them performing a whole lot better on the road. Drake basically averages 80 points per game at home. Play on DRAKE AAA |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -11 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Wisconsin Wisconsin certainly has some work to do. Because they've lost two straight, the Badgers almost certainly will fall out of the new top 25 when that poll is released later today. But don't make the mistake of thinking this isn't one of the 25 best teams in America. Before losing to Michigan and Michigan State, both top 10 teams mind you, the Badgers had won six in a row. They had covered the spread in all six games as well. Tonight, they are going to play one of the six teams they beat during that streak, Illinois. They beat the Illini 72-60 back on Jan 23rd and that was on the road as 4.5-point favorites. The Illini come into this rematch riding their own four-game win streak, which includes three upsets, the latest taking place at Ohio State Thursday. But they seem ill-suited to compete against the Badgers as they've dropped four in a row to them, failing to cover all four times as well. Also, before beating Ohio State, the Illini had just one road win all season. Wisconsin is a very good defensive team and after being held below 60 pts in its last three games, they should do some damage offensively here. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-18-19 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Lightning-Blue Jackets We took the Over on Columbus' last game, which ended up being a 5-2 win for them and us. That game was against a Chicago team that is tied for having allowed the most goals in the league. It's a much different opponent Monday, but we should still anticipate a high scoring affair. That's because the Blue Jackets are now facing a Lightning team that leads the league in scoring. It's almost undisputed that Tampa Bay is the best team in the league right now and they come into Monday hot, on the heels of five consecutive victories. They've won the last two in shutout fashion, 6-0 and 3-0. But even though Columbus was shutout in their last home game (3-0 by the Islanders), I wouldn't look for such a fate to await them tonight. Over the L6 games, the Blue Jackets have scored at least three goals five times. So call that shutout loss an outlier. As for TB, well, they had scored five or more goals in four straight games before "only" scoring three against Montreal Saturday. In two previous games vs. Columbus this year, the Lightning have scored 8 and 4 goals. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Columbus. AAA |
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02-17-19 | Capitals -180 v. Ducks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on WASHINGTON Anaheim is a very bad team, much worse than I think the public realizes at this point. We went into this a bit the last time I went against them, which also happened to be their last game, a 3-0 home loss to the Bruins. The Ducks' goal differential for the season is now -57, which is by far an away the worst such mark in the league. The next worst GD is -38 (Kings). Overall, Anaheim has won just three of its last 23 games. In the last six games, they've managed only five goals. Sunday's opponent is Washington and they scored five goals in their last game. The Caps can't afford to drop this game if they are to keep pace with the surging Islanders in the Metropolitan. The team they just beat (San Jose) had been as hot as anyone in this league. The fact that it was a road win was even more impressive as the Sharks have lost only four times on home ice all season. The Caps have won four of their last six and should cruise here against an Anaheim team that is last in the league in scoring. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-17-19 | Arizona +4 v. Colorado | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA Arizona has lost six in a row, but don't give up on them just yet as I believe the Wildcats are due to have a breakout performance tonight in Boulder. Not only have the Wildcats lost six in a row, they've failed to cover the spread in all six games. Colorado is 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, so again, this looks like two teams heading in different directions. But sometimes that's exactly what you want as the underdog looks to be underappreciated in this one as Arizona beat Colorado earlier in the year, 64-56 as six-point favorites. It would seem as if the line has shifted too far for the rematch as Colorado has not been favored by this much against anybody since facing Cal back on January 24th. They were the underdog for three of the last four games and only -1.5 vs. Arizona State Wednesday, a game they won by only four points. This is the first time the Buffaloes have won four straight in conference play since the 2005-06 season. It's a most opportune time to fade them. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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02-17-19 | Rangers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the OVER in Rangers-Penguins The Rangers just turned in one of their better efforts of the year, scoring six times in an easy win at Buffalo Friday night. Though they continue to struggle, New York has now found the back of the net at least three times in seven of the last eight games. Four times during that same stretch, they've scored four or more goals in a game. This afternoon, they go up against a Pittsburgh side that rarely has any issues scoring. The Penguins have totaled 14 goals in the last four games alone and are a top five team in the league in goals per game. But they did lose yesterday, by a score of 5-4 here at home to the Calgary Flames. It was the second time in the last four games the Pens lost by a score of 5-4. Since the start of last season, these teams have met five times and all five games have gone Over the total. There has been a minimum of seven goals scored in all five games with the last matchup being a 7-2 final in Pittsburgh's favor. Given the amount of scoring we've seen from the two sides lately, another Over certainly seems to be in the cards. Play OVER Rangers-Penguins AAA |
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02-16-19 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-16-19 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* OVER play on Blue Jackets-Blackhawks We're switching courses here with Columbus as you may recall we played the Under in the Blue Jackets last game. That resulted in a 3-0 loss to the Islanders, but it's a very different opponent they are matched up with on Saturday. Whereas the Islanders are 1st in the league in goals allowed, Chicago is 30th. Helping matters further is the fact the Blackhawks scored five goals of their own in their most recent game. That was against New Jersey Thursday, here in the Windy City. Going back to before the All Star Break, the Blackhawks have really turned things around by winning eight out of their last nine games. They're still a last place team mind you, but they are scoring in bunches and the last seven games have all gone Over the total. Chicago has scored at least three goals in 15 consecutive games! Columbus is a top 10 team in scoring and should have little difficulty finding the back of the net here. After being involved in two straight shutouts (1 W, 1 L), this should be a more competitive high scoring affair. The last time Columbus was shutout, they came back and won 4-3 their next game. Play OVER Columbus-Chicago AAA |
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02-16-19 | DePaul v. Butler -6.5 | Top | 78-91 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BUTLER Both DePaul and Butler are coming off losses. DePaul's was definitely worse, even though it came against a top 10 opponent. They were blown out by Marquette 92-73 at home. Butler lost by four at St. John's that same day (Tuesday). The Bulldogs are in much better position to rebound, even though they've lost four of six just like the Blue Demons. Butler won the first meeting, rather convincingly, exactly one month ago. It was an 87-69 game where they shot lights out. Interesting is that they won so handily on the road despite attempting just four free throws. DePaul remains pretty shaky on defense as they've only been favored twice in Big East play. Butler sees its scoring rise to 77.9 PPG at home and after watching them play three consecutive games decided by four points or less, this should be a far more comfortable result. They are simply the better team as they've already proven by winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Play on BUTLER AAA |
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02-16-19 | Washington -7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Despite winning every conference game but one (their last one), Washington doesn't ever seem to get the respect that it deserves. That probably has to do with the fact the Pac 12 isn't very good this year. There's a good chance only one team from this league makes the NCAA Tournament. But presently, I don't think there's an argument that UW isn't the best team. They are head and shoulders above the rest defensively and tonight they'll face a rival that has been terrible most of this season. Washington State may have pulled off back to back upsets, winning at Arizona State (were +15.5) and Arizona (were +11.5), but before that the Cougs had lost every Pac 12 game but one. Washington is off their first conference loss here; 75-63 to Arizona State. But they've had a full week to recover. They'd gone 10-0 SU and ATS in conference play before that. That includes a 22-point win over Wazzu in Seattle. It shouldn't be much more difficult the second time around as I predict another double digit victory. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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02-16-19 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on IOWA STATE Iowa State invades Manhattan (Kansas, that is) for a game pitting two teams seemingly going in different directions. Kansas State has risen to the top of the Big 12 on the back of its outstanding defense. The Wildcats have won 9 of 10. Iowa State suffered an outright loss in its last game, falling 92-83 at home to TCU. But that game was exactly one week ago. The Cyclones have had more than enough time to prepare for this showdown where I believe they are the better team. I think it's instructive to note Kansas State wasn't even in the top 25 until this week. They certainly can be offensively challenged, even at home where they only average 63.8 points per game. Iowa State is the top offensive team in the conference and this will be just the fourth time they are a dog this season. They've covered two of the previous three times. The 'Clones also have a bit of revenge to exact as they lost at home to KSU, 58-57 (were -8.5) back on January 12th. Kansas State's only loss in the L10 games came out of conference, so they've beaten every Big 12 team. They won't beat Iowa State twice. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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02-15-19 | Bruins -165 v. Ducks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on BOSTON No team in the NHL has been outscored by a wider margin this season than Anaheim. The Ducks YTD goal differential of -54 is easily the worst in the league. That certainly doesn't bode well for them moving forward and I think they're in a lot of trouble tonight, specifically. While they did win Wednesday, all that did was end a seven-game losing streak and it was a 1-0 victory over Vancouver, making it six times in the last eight games they scored 1 or 0 goals. Tonight, Boston invades and the Bruins have won three straight. The Bruins scored six times in their last game, which is more than the Ducks have scored in their last five games combined. Since the All Star Break, Boston is unbeaten in regulation. Meanwhile, Anaheim has lost 19 of 22. As the line suggests, this one seems like a no-brainer! Play on BOSTON AAA |
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02-15-19 | Brown v. Cornell | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Brown Over its last four games, Cornell has pulled off three upsets. Last week was certainly good for the Big Red as they won at Dartmouth (83-80) and Harvard (67-61). They were underdogs of 3.5 and 9.5 points respectively in those two contests. They are one of three teams tied for second in the Ivy League with a 4-2 conference record. (Yale is 5-1). A couple games back is Brown (2-4), who managed to beat Princeton last Saturday after losing to Penn the previous night. Both games were at home. Maybe you're somewhat surprised to see me on Brown here, given that they are the road team and lost both matchups against Cornell last year. But I view the Bears as the better team as the last week has clouded the oddsmakers' judgement on Cornell, who is 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. Also, it should be mentioned that they trailed Harvard by 13 at halftime in the last game. Cornell isn't a particularly strong offensive team (only average 67.4 PPG at home) and they also turn the ball over too much. Brown is the better team defensively and should win going away here. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-15-19 | South Alabama v. Georgia State -8.5 | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on Georgia State Georgia State is one of several teams vying for Sun Belt Conference supremacy. They enter Friday tied for second place (with UT Arlington), a game behind Texas State. UT Arlington lost last night, which was a break for the Panthers. So too is drawing South Alabama in this spot as the underdog Jaguars are on a two-game losing streak and have just one win away from home this entire season. USA is pretty weak defensively (78.8 PPG allowed on the road) and that's something Georgia State should be able to exploit seeing as they average 81.8 PPG at home. This is not the 1st meeting of the season between the two sides. Georgia State won the first, almost exactly one month ago, 69-66. They did not cover (as they were 4-point favorites), but there's value for the rematch given the line should be higher based on the fact the Panthers were four-point favorites on the road. They shot only 39.0% and still won on the road. They'll shoot much better tonight and win big. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA |
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02-14-19 | Blues -148 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ST LOUIS St. Louis is a hot team right now. They've won seven straight. This has gotten them up to fourth place in the Central Division, which would be good enough for a Wild Card. Tuesday saw them score eight goals in a win over New Jersey. The Blues have done plenty of scoring lately. It's 13 goals in the last two games and they've scored at least three in all but one game in the win streak. The lone exception was a 1-0 win over league-leading Tampa Bay. Tonight I look for the winning ways to continue in Arizona. While the Coyotes have won two in a row, they'd lost five in a before that. This is a revenge game for the Blues as they lost 6-1 in their last visit here. They're obviously playing better now. None of the Coyotes goalies are playing well right now, which means trouble facing this red hot Blues team. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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02-14-19 | Arizona +4 v. Utah | Top | 76-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONAÂ Utah really burned me on Saturday. They were down 22 at UCLA, yet came all the way back and won at the buzzer, 93-92. It was their second upset win of the week as they'd won at USC last Wednesday. That's a huge difference from the previous week when they lost twice at home, both time as favorites. Tonight, they are back in Salt Lake facing an Arizona team that has lost five in a row and reeling (scandal!). But the Wildcats have already beaten the Utes once this year. They've won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall. Something to consider is Utah shot 56.6% in that first meeting and still didn't win. They couldn't win despite that shooting and are were lucky to win Saturday. I don't think Utah is the better team here, so I'll take the points. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-14-19 | Knicks v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 106-91 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATLANTA The Knicks are setting a new benchmark for futility. They lost again last night, 126-111 to Philadelphia. That makes it 18 in a row. Since November 25th, they have lost 33 of 36 games. Two of their three wins were games that went to overtime (both two point wins) and the other was against the Lakers without LeBron. Playing in the second night of a back to back, right before going on break, I don't see the Knicks turning things around here. Yes, they've beaten Atlanta twice this year. But that'll have the Hawks extra motivated tonight. The Hawks picked up a nice win Tuesday against the Lakers (who had LeBron). This should not be a hard game for them. It's a rare spot where they're favored tonight, but it's certainly an ideal opponent. The Knicks will put up no resistance as they are 1-9 SU on no rest this year, losing by an average of 11 PPG. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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02-14-19 | Senators v. Red Wings -138 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT It's a battle between the bottom two teams in the Atlantic Division Thursday night in the Motor City. Not only do the Red Wings have the advantage here of getting the game on home ice, they are the better team anyway. Ottawa has a pretty clear case to be called the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (47). On the road, things can be quite dire for the Senators. They give up 4.3 goals per game. Overall, no team has given more goals this year - or shots. Detroit has its issues, but is off a nice win, 3-2 at Nashville. Given that result, beating Ottawa at home should not be that difficult. They just beat the Senators 2-0 on the road two weeks ago. They won that game despite a 35-21 deficit in shots. That shouldn't happen again here, given how many shots (and goals) Ottawa usually gives up. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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02-14-19 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* UNDER play on Islanders-Blue Jackets The Islanders have undergone a pretty radical transformation this season. Last year, they set a rather infamous record by giving up the most goals ever over the course of an 82-game season. This year, they are giving up fewest goals per game average in the league (2.82). That's stunning. Obviously, the transformation is what's largely responsible for them now leading the Metropolitan Division. They did give up three in a loss to Buffalo Tuesday night. Tonight, they'll have their work cut out for them against a Columbus team that has won four straight while scoring 17 goals in the process. Don't be surprised if the Blue Jackets get held in check. They are 5-1 Under when on a win streak of three games or longer. This includes the 3-0 shutout of Washington Tuesday. Given they are off a shutout, don't be surprised if they keep the Isles in check as well. The Islanders are 13-5 Under their last 18 games. Play UNDER Islanders-Blue Jackets AAA |
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02-13-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -3 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NC STATE NC State recovered from an absolutely dreadful three-game stretch to beat Pitt over the weekend, 79-76, on the road. They were two-point favorites, so they got the cash too. Those three previous games read like a horror movie though. They lost by one to Virginia, scored only 24 points against Va Tech, then gave up 113 points to North Carolina. Still though, the Wolfpack are a team to be taken seriously in the ACC and I feel they'll come through tonight in Raleigh against Syracuse. The Orange find themselves closer to the top of the conference with only Duke, Virginia and UNC ahead of them. They beat Duke (in Durham), yet the market still really doesn't respect them that much and I'm not sure I do either. They are 8-3 ATS in conference play, including 4-1 on the road. But ... save for Duke, those road wins came against the bottom tier of the league. The Orange recently lost by 18 to Florida State ... at home. They are offensively challenged and thus I don't see them keeping pace with a NC State team that averages over 82 PPG. Play on NC STATE. AAA |
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02-13-19 | Nets v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 148-139 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Nets-Cavs The Nets have dropped both games since leading scorer Caris LeVert returned to the lineup. Still, they have nothing to be ashamed about as far as their most recent performance goes. On the road, they took Toronto down to the wire, ultimately losing 127-125. Now, the fact Brooklyn has lost five of six is a bit concerning. But fortunately for them, they've got an easy one on tap tonight in Cleveland. The Cavaliers might be off a rare win, but they're still only 12-45 SU on the year. The only team with a worse record is the one they just beat, the Knicks. I expect this to be a high scoring affair given Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league. Brooklyn hasn't exactly been playing outstanding defense either, giving up an average of 119.4 points its last five games. They've allowed 125 or more points in three straight with all those games ending in regulation. The Over is 8-3 in the Nets last 11 road games while it's also 11-5-1 the Cavs last 17 home games. Play OVER Nets-Cavs AAA |
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02-13-19 | Bucks v. Pacers +4 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on INDIANA Indiana continues to surprise despite being without Victor Oladipo. Monday saw them win for a sixth straight time, 99-99 over Charlotte. They got off to a fast start in that one and were able to hold on after jumping out to 16-point halftime lead. They're 5-1 ATS during the six-game win streak and getting points tonight against Milwaukee. The Bucks, who continue to lead the Eastern Conference, have been equally as hot - if not hotter. They've won and covered seven of their last eight, including an easy one in Chicago Monday night. But this has all the makings of an "upset" with the Pacers already being 4-1 SU/ATS in the home dog role this season. It's pretty clear to me that this team isn't being given the proper credit right now due to the Oladipo injury. But the rest of the team has more than picked up the slack. This is a strong defensive group and the last time they hosted Milwaukee, the result was a 113-97 win with only 12 points from Oladipo. Indiana is 22-7 SU at home and a great value here getting points. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-12-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -3 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS Kansas State, not Kansas, is currently leading the Big 12. The Wildcats are 8-2 in conference play and have won three straight. The fact that they are in first place is pretty surprising when you consider they weren't even ranked going into the weekend and the Big 12 has multiple ranked teams. I view tonight as an opportunity to fade a team that has clearly moved from "underrated" to "overrated" in a pretty short period of time. The Wildcats' road record is only 4-4 and that includes four straight wins. They are in Austin tonight to take on a Texas team coming off a huge road win at West Virginia on Saturday where they prevailed by 22 points. The Longhorns have covered four straight and also have the advantage of having won in Manhattan by 20 earlier in the year. The revenge angle can sometimes be overrated. For example, WVU was playing with revenge against Texas on Saturday and that ended up meaning nothing. Revenge is again overrated here as Texas is the better team despite being unranked. The 'Horns 6-5 conference record is a little misleading when you consider those five losses have come by a total of 20 points. They have two 20+ points and also beat Kansas by double digits. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on Philadelphia Kyrie Irving won't play tonight for Boston and that means big trouble for the Celtics going up against a 76ers team that has really begun to hit its stride. I took Philly Sunday, laying a similar number to the Lakers. They won 143-120, easily covering the number. I expect the same here. With Tobias Harris on board, the Sixers have as strong a starting five as any team in the league outside of Golden State. They are also 23-6 straight up here at home where they are winning by an average of almost 10 PPG. Boston has lost two straight, both as favorites. After losing at the buzzer to the Lakers last Thursday, they blew a huge lead against the Clippers Saturday and lost by double digits as double digit favorites. The Celtics are only a .500 team on the road (13-13 SU) and they are 3-6 (both SU and ATS) as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is 71-43 ATS its L114 home games and is in top form right now. Don't expect them to take the Celtics lightly as they're 0-2 against them this season, including an OT loss on Christmas Day. This is their revenge. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-12-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 208 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Spurs-Grizzlies The Spurs badly need a win tonight. They've started their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" with four consecutive losses, bringing them to 0-7 ATS their last seven games overall. Tonight they are just a short road favorite in Memphis. But before laying that short number, be aware that San Antonio has given up at least 125 points in every game on this trip. That precludes me from taking them here, but Over seems like a logical call given that's how every other game on the trip has gone so far. Memphis is the league's lowest scoring team, but because of that we are getting a low number for tonight. We should see the Grizzlies score more tonight than they have in a long time. On the flip side of that, San Antonio is going to score more than the average Memphis opponent. The Spurs have become one of the top shooting teams in the league this season and are the third most efficient offense. Play OVER San Antonio-Memphis AAA |
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02-12-19 | Flames v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay The Flames and Lightning are the two highest scoring teams in the league. So you can't be surprised to see a high total for their game Tuesday. However, the normal parameters for setting an O/U line in NHL really hurt the oddsmakers in this one as I simply don't think a "normal" O/U line fits this particular matchup. When they met the first time this season, the Flames and Lightning combined for nine goals (Tampa Bay won in a shootout). Calling for a repeat of that would not be out of the ordinary as Calgary averages 3.7 goals per game while TB is at 3.9. At home, the Lightning's scoring average jumps to 4.1 goals per game. They have scored five goals in victories over both Pittsburgh and Florida the last two games. The Flames have given up 16 goals in four games since the All Star Break. The Over is 4-0 in February for Calgary and 13-2 their last 15 games. Bottom line is I expect a lot of scoring from the two most prolific teams in the league. Play OVER Calgary-Tampa Bay AAA |
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02-11-19 | Portland State v. CS Sacramento OVER 140.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State AAA |
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02-11-19 | Blazers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on PORTLAND The last time Portland came to Oklahoma City, the number was only +4. While the Thunder did win that day, 123-114, one can only presume the real reason for the spike in the line is that the Blazers had to play Sunday and the Thunder did not. It was the closest of losses for Portland yesterday as they went down 102-101 after getting outscored 24-9 in the fourth quarter by Dallas. That should have them pretty eager to suit up this evening. OKC has won 10 of 11, but this looks to be too high of a spread in game between two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Even with yesterday's loss, Portland has still won 7 of 10. All things considered, these teams are pretty even. OKC was a slight dog when it won at Houston Saturday. That's a Rockets team just below the Blazers in the Western Conference standings. Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-11-19 | Wizards v. Pistons -3.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on DETROIT It won't take many wins (38?) to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year. But regardless of how many it does take, there's no denying that both the Pistons and Wizards are coming off "good weeks" as far as keeping their postseason hopes relevant goes. Washington is coming off two straight wins while Detroit has won three in row. Now the Wizards happened to beat Chicago and Cleveland, two of the very worst teams in the league. The Pistons are coming off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, who have the worst record in the league. So there's really no need to alter our reads on the respective teams. Washington is still a really bad road team with an ATS record of 8-20 away from home (8-21 SU). So there's not much argument to be made for liking them getting such a short number. The Pistons are more rested coming into tonight and recent home wins over Dallas and Denver indicate that this should not be a hard number to cover. Washington is 5-21 ATS the L26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit has a 16-13 SU record at home. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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02-11-19 | Knicks v. Cavs -1 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND It's the teams with the two worst records in the league meeting Monday night in Cleveland. The Cavaliers (11-45) are a half game up on the miserable Knicks, who have lost 16 in a row. That streak matches the worst in franchise history. They've also lost 24 of 25 and 29 out of the last 31. While this may seem to be the Knicks best chance at winning in a long time, the same holds true for the Cavs, who come in as the favorite for only the fifth time all season. The Knicks already lost once here in Cleveland, two months ago, by a score of 113-106. Kevin Love could play tonight for the Cavs, who are likely to be the more motivated team by virtue of playing at home. This very likely will be an ugly game, but predicting the Knicks to win on the road seems a bit foolish. Therefore, I will "hold my nose" and take Cleveland, who has actually won three times since the Knicks last won a game. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-10-19 | Stanford v. Oregon -6 | Top | 46-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON Oregon's season was dealt the worst possible blow when Bol Bol was lost for the year, but they've continued to manage without him. They won Wednesday, 73-62 over Cal. While they did not cover the spread in that game (were -16), it was still a pretty impressive that the won so handily in spite of turning the ball over 15 times and attempting just five free throws. With a more manageable line tonight, look for the Ducks to cover this time. They host a Stanford team that's in a pretty rough scheduling spot. The Cardinal are playing a third straight road game here and second in four days. They have won the first two, against Cal and Oregon State. But this is clearly the toughest of three. Stanford was a 7.5-point dog when it beat Oregon State Thursday, by a score of 83-60. Clearly, that was the best possible performance from the Cardinal and thus unlikely to be repeated. PG Davis also left that game with a head injury and did not return. So his status is up in the air. Stanford is just 2-9 ATS after giving up less than 60 points in their last game. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-10-19 | Lakers v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA About two weeks ago the Sixers beat the Lakers 121-105. They were 7.5 point favorites on the road. If any of that sounds odd to you, be aware that LeBron James did not play. Obviously, there needs to be some sort of adjustment made by the oddsmakers now that LeBron is back in the Lakers lineup. But a Lakers team that is simply mediocre at best should still be a bigger underdog for this rematch in Philly. The Sixers are also stronger now than they were two weeks ago, thanks to the Tobias Harris trade. In terms of a starting five, the 76ers have one of the best groups in the league. They just beat a very good Denver team by seven here at home on Friday. That same night saw the Lakers win in Boston, but the win came on a buzzer beater and that was after they trailed the Celtics by as many as 18 points. Remember that with James in the lineup, the Lakers lost by 42 to an Indiana team (Wednesday) that no longer has Victor Oladipo. The 76ers are 22-6 SU at home this year and 70-43 ATS their L113 home games. Play on PHILADELPHIAÂ AAA |
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02-10-19 | Hurricanes -141 v. Devils | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -141 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAROLINA Carolina is starting to make a move for the playoffs. With their own three-game win streak and Pittsburgh losing four in a row, the Hurricanes are now just a point back of the second Wild Card in the Eastern Conference. All three wins during the current streak have come on the road and two were shutouts, the most recent coming Friday (3-0) over the Rangers. You could say New Jersey is going in the other direction as they've lost three straight and seven of nine. Truthfully though, the Devils have been headed in the wrong direction all season. They're the last place team in the Metro and with just 48 points any realistic hope of making the playoffs is out the window. Making matters tougher today is that NJ played yesterday. They lost 4-2 to the Wild, their 5th straight loss at home. This is Carolina's third game in four days, but they've won seven straight in that situation. New Jersey is just 1-7 the last eight times it has played the second game of a back to back. Play on CAROLINA AAAÂ |
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02-09-19 | Blue Jackets v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on VEGASÂ Vegas has established one of the strongest home ice advantages in the league and should win this battle of teams coming off back to back wins Saturday night. The Golden Knights' last two wins both came on the road, one of them as a +140 money line dog at Tampa Bay. The same is true for Columbus, but the difference is they are still on the road and its a third road game in five nights to boot. Maybe the biggest reason Vegas is so good at home is the simply don't give up many goals. They are #1 in the league, giving up just 2.16 goals per game on home ice. They have actually lost their last two games at T-Mobile Arena, which is surprising, but that streak should end tonight considering in two years this team has gone 45-16-5 here in the regular season. Play on VEGAS AAA |
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02-09-19 | Clippers v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 123-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER for Clippers-Celtics The Clippers team that takes the court Saturday night will look a lot different than the one we've seen for most of this season. Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley were both dealt at the trade deadline. An influx of new players are set to debut here in Boston. Depth has never been an issue for LA. In fact, it's why they're in playoff position. Though Harris was their leading scorer, I don't really expect the Clippers scoring to go down at all moving forward. Their games are usually high scoring as they both score and allow 113 PPG. Boston is off a high scoring game as they lost 129-128 to the Lakers Thursday night. That result did the Clippers no favors as it kept the Lakers close in the race for the 8th spot out West. Boston averages 115 PPG at home and the Over is 14-5 their last 19 times facing an opponent with a winning record. Oddsmakers expect a high scoring affair here and so do I. The Over is 9-5 in Celtics games this year if the total is 220 points or higher (7-3 at home). Play OVER Clippers-Celtics AAA |
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02-09-19 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | Top | 105-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTAH Utah is hot, San Antonio is not. It's as simple as that Saturday night for this Western Conference clash. The Jazz have won 13 of their last 18 games, mirroring last year's second half surge. They are also 9-2 the L11 home games. The Spurs have not gotten off to a good start on their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they're now 0-3 after tasting defeat in Portland Thursday night. I didn't like them in that spot (played against them) and with this being a third road game in four nights and fourth in six nights, it's just as difficult to see them winning - or even covering - here. Speaking of covering, that's something San Antonio has not done for six straight games. There were two meetings in December between these teams and the home team won handily both times. The Spurs have been a pretty bad road team as their record away from home is now 10-18 straight up. Of the two, Utah is the much better defensive team. All signs point to an easy Jazz victory tonight. Play on UTAH. AAA |
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02-09-19 | Utah v. UCLA -4 | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* release on UCLA Very different results for these teams from Wednesday as Utah went to USC and won while UCLA lost at home to Colorado. Those results may have been different, but the home/road designations will be the same Saturday when they meet. The Utes have surprisingly won four of five on the conference road, but I wouldn't look for that to continue as they're only 1-4 SU and ATS all-time in Westwood. UCLA is 10-5 team at home and off back to back losses. Not only did they fall here to Colorado on Wednesday, they lost at Washington last Saturday. That puts the Bruins somewhat into desperation mode tonight and I don't have much hesitation laying the number considering they average more than 80 PPG at Pauley Pavilion. Despite the road prowess, Utah has only won 3 of 10 games where they were the underdog. They are allowing 76.8 PPG on the road. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-09-19 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas State -5.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS STATE Texas State has been a real surprise as the Bobcats are one of three teams currently tied atop the Sun Belt with a 7-3 SU record. Their overall record is 18-5 SU, which is easily the best of any team in the conference. In fact, every team but one (Georgia State) has at least 10 losses. Tonight the Bobcats look to at least preserve their first place standing in a home game vs. Coastal Carolina, who is just one game back in the standings. The Chanticleers had won and covered their last five games before losing to UT Arlington by 20 on Thursday, a game that was expected to be close (line was +1.5). Texas State had actually lost two in a row (one to TX Arlington) before beating Appalachian State Thursday. With three straight ATS losses, the Bobcats appear to be undervalued in this spot. They already won at Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, doing so 65-61 as 2.5-point favorites. Here in San Marcos, Texas State owns a strong 10-2 record while outscoring the opposition by 16.5 PPG. Play on TEXAS STATE AAA |
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02-09-19 | Auburn +2.5 v. LSU | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN The SEC has only three ranked teams, but that belies the strength of this league. Auburn is a team that isn't even ranked, but should be considered a real darkhorse come NCAA Tournament time. You'll notice that despite their unranked designation, the Tigers are just a short road underdog here vs. LSU, who is #21 in the country. Last Saturday, I played against LSU and they lost (as 10-point favorites) here in Baton Rouge to a struggling Arkansas team. They did bounce back from that loss by beating Mississippi State, but that required overcoming a double digit deficit in the second half, then overtime. It was the third OT win in SEC play alone this year for LSU. Auburn comes into this game on a three-game roll. All three wins have been by double digits. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country and I believe poised to close the regular season strong. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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02-08-19 | Heat +3 v. Kings | Top | 96-102 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI Second time in a row we'll be playing against Sacramento. We chose to lay the points with Houston on Wednesday and they really handed it to the Kings in a 127-101 game. That snapped Sacramento's three-game win streak. Maybe the most surprising thing about the Kings is how they've made the most of the times that they've been favored. They've gone 12-1 straight up and 11-2 against the spread in those games and come in as chalk tonight vs. Miami. But give me the Heat and the points after they just upset the Blazers in Portland Tuesday night. Miami is 8-2 ATS after winning a game outright as a dog. They have a 15-8 ATS record as an underdog and have covered 16 of their 25 road games so far. I do not see the Kings staying above .500 for too long. They're still weak defensively. Miami has revenge for an early season loss at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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02-08-19 | Knicks v. Pistons OVER 206 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Knicks-Pistons The Knicks have been excruciatingly bad for some time, last winning a game on January 4th. It's been 14 losses in a row since then and perhaps most embarrassing of all is the fact they haven't broken 100 points in seven straight. Friday night, they'll play the Pistons again. These teams just met Tuesday and Detroit won at the Garden, 105-92. That the game stayed Under was a moderate surprise when you consider it was certainly a high scoring first half. It was 63-54 at the break, but things really slowed down in the third quarter and never picked back up. You have to think New York is going to score at least 100 in a game pretty soon. Why not tonight? The Pistons allowed more than 107 points per game on the year. New York allows 115.5 PPG on the road. The Over is 8-2 when the Knicks are playing with exactly two days rest. Detroit just traded one of its better defenders in Stanley Johnson. Play OVER New York-Detroit AAA |
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02-08-19 | Princeton v. Yale -7 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE Two of the Ivy League's heavyweights meet here with Yale hosting Princeton. Maybe you did a double take when you saw the only team with a perfect Ivy League record (Princeton) getting so many points. But Yale is the right call here as they've lost only one time in their L10 games and their record at home remains perfect (6-0). After losing at rival Harvard last Friday, they blew out Dartmouth (on the road) Saturday. They have covered 8 of the 11 times they have been favored this year. Part of the reason it is easy to like the Bulldogs at home (besides the perfect record) is they average 87 PPG. Princeton has won seven straight but will be playing its third in a row on the road. That puts them at a significant disadvantage as the home team is on an 8-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (Princeton 1-5-1 ATS L7 times visiting Yale). Play on YALE AAA |
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02-08-19 | Pennsylvania v. Brown +1 | Top | 92-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BROWN You have to hand it to Pennsylvania. This season could have easily gone off the rails when last year's leading scorer Ryan Betley (an all-Ivy League player) was lost for the season (to an ACL injury). But the Quakers have circled the wagons, even beating Villanova, and have a 13-7 record coming into tonight. But their Ivy League brethren aren't taking it easy on them, that's for sure. Penn is just 1-3 in conference games. Here they're up against a team with an identical overall and conference record, that being Brown. The host Bears got blown out by Harvard in their last game. But they are 8-1 SU at home and that's a very big deal in a game the oddsmakers have listed as basically a pick em. Brown is averaging 82.6 points per game here at home. Penn is playing for a third straight time on the road. Brown has triple revenge. We're seeing Penn finally slow down (probably due to the loss of Betley) and that continues here. Play on BROWN AAA |
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02-07-19 | Spurs v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 118-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND San Antonio essentially waved the proverbial "white flag" last night as it sat both DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge against Golden State. Thus, the final result was rather predictable and sure enough they lost 141-102. Not that they had much of a chance, but giving up 49 pts in the third quarter certainly didn't help. The Spurs are now 0-2 to start the annual "Rodeo Road Trip" as they also lost in Sacramento Monday. Though DeRozan and Aldridge will presumably both play tonight, it's not like Portland is an easy place to play. And the Blazers are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss they suffered on Tuesday to Miami, also a National TV game. I don't see Portland losing two in a row at home, so lay the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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02-07-19 | Sharks v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Sharks-Flames We've uncovered what looks to be yet another high-scoring affair on the NHL slate with San Jose traveling to Calgary. Going into the All-Star Break, the Sharks were having some serious issues stopping their opponents from scoring. They gave up six goals in four straight games! That issues seems to have been alleviated some as they've gone 2-0 since the Break, beating Arizona and Winnipeg by identical 3-2 scores. But tonight they're at Calgary and the Flames are known for scoring a ton at their rink. In fact, they average the highest number of goals per game of any team in the league at home. Tampa Bay was thought to be on a historic pace for goal scoring (and they were), but Calgary has passed them when it comes to home games, averaging 4.31 per game! So look for another high scoring game between two teams who combined for 13 goals the last time they played (New Year's Eve). Play OVER San Jose-Calgary AAA |
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02-07-19 | Western Kentucky -4.5 v. Rice | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Western Kentucky Western Kentucky definitely deserves to be favored by more than they are Thursday night at Rice. The Hilltoppers are certainly playing well of late. They've won five out of their last six games and Saturday's 76-59 beatdown of UTEP was the most definitive of the bunch. A strong finish and getting to the free throw line were both key in that win. But the Hilltoppers have been winning in a variety of ways lately, which is more than we can say for Rice. The Owls have lost five of seven and while all five losses have been by four points or less, this isn't a team worth your investment. They are bad at the defensive end (allow 78.3 PPG). Being that they are usually the underdog, Rice does sport a good ATS record. But the line is simply way too short tonight against a vastly superior opponent. WKU is 7-3 ATS in conference play in its own right. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY AAA |
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02-07-19 | South Florida v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SMU This game is a must have for SMU, which has dropped two straight. But those two losses were both on the road and to good teams, Wichita State and Cincinnati. Tonight, they are back home and facing a South Florida team that is a surprising 15-6 straight up. The Bulls have won three in a row and have done even more damage this year at the betting window where they are 16-5 ATS overall, including 8-1 in conference play. They are also 6-1 ATS as dogs. But they have not won four straight conference games since joining the American. They have also not had much luck here at Moody Coliseum where they are just 1-5 SU all-time. SMU is almost always a strong home team. While they have lost four home games this year, they are still outscoring visiting teams by 11.7 points per game. Play on SMU AAA |
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02-06-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on Houston Houston is at the end of a four-game road trip here. But I expect them to play well against the overachieving Kings. In the second game of a back to back on Monday, they won by eight at Phoenix. That followed a very impressive performance at Utah where they won by 27. The Kings have won three in a row, all at home, and just upset the Spurs Monday. Who would have thought they'd be three games over .500 after 53 games? Not I. Things are starting to come together for the Rockets with Chris Paul back in the lineup. Earlier this season, they blew Sacramento out by 20 points. The Kings still give up too many points to be taken seriously. Houston covers the small number. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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02-06-19 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Ottawa-Toronto Expect plenty of goals in this one. Toronto is fourth in the league in goals. Their Ontario rivals, Ottawa, have given up the most goals in the league. Provided the Senators can find the back of the net once or twice themselves, then this Over should come in with relative ease. The Maple Leafs just blitzed Anaheim for six goals on Monday. That was the lowest scoring team in the league they were facing and they still carried them Over the total. Ottawa is a respectable 13th in goals per game. Now the Sens did get shut out in their previous game, but that was Saturday. The Over is 4-1 this season when they play with three or more days rest. Eight of the last nine times these teams have played, the Over has hit. On the road, Ottawa is giving up 4.3 goals per game. Play OVER Ottawa-Toronto AAA |
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02-06-19 | Georgetown v. Providence -3 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PROVIDENCE Providence has some revenge on its mind when it hosts Georgetown Wednesday night. They lost a double overtime game to the Hoyas last month by a score of 96-90. The Friars aren't used to losing in this Big East rivalry. They'd previously beaten Georgetown eight straight times! It's been almost five years since the Hoyas won here in Rhode Island. Both teams are off losses here and in the case of Providence, they've lost two in a row. Both losses (Seton Hall, DePaul) were on the road though. They've had an extra day to prepare for this rematch as Georgetown played Sunday at Villanova. The Hoyas are last in the league defensively, so look for the Friars to break out of their offensive slump. Play on PROVIDENCE AAA |
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