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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -129 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -129 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE We missed on Milwaukee last night, but will come back again with the Tuesday. The Reds won 6-5, thanks to two Eugenio Suarez home runs, the second being a go-ahead shot in the top of the ninth. That blast negated a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth from Milwaukee's Tyler Saladino. Cincy is still only 20-29 on the road though and came into this series having lost 9 of their last 12 games overall. Tonight's starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in favor of the Brewers, which is the key here. Zach Davies has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 0.50 ERA and 0.944 WHIP. The Brewers have actually won all of his last four starts with Davies giving up only two earned runs in 23 1/3 innings. As for Cincy's Tanner Roark, he's got a 7.16 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. One of those starts was against Milwaukee and he allowed three home runs. Play on MILWAUKEEÂ AAA |
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07-23-19 | A's v. Astros -144 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -144 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOUSTON Houston took the first game of this AL West showdown and did so easily, winning 11-1 Monday. The game was never in doubt as first place Astros scored four runs in the 2nd inning and seven more in the 3rd. Not that they needed it, but they also got seven sharp innings from starter Gerrit Cole. We can't say we're surprised by how the Astros handled the A's last night; after all they were huge moneyline favorites. But we are surprised at how cheap they are on the moneyline tonight. Sure, Wade Miley isn't Cole, but he has a 4-0 TSR his last four starts and a 1.96 ERA/0.94 WHIP at home this year. Moreover, the Astros have won seven of the eight times Miley has started at home. By the way, Houston has now won six straight, all of them against division opponents. Oakland figures to cool off after their own six-game win streak got snapped last Thursday. Since then, they've lost three of five. Starter Michael Fiers has a 5.57 ERA on the road. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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07-22-19 | Marlins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the UNDER We anticipate this being a low-scoring affair despite neither starter being anything remotely special. Miami comes into this Interleague series as the lowest scoring team in the National League. Every NL team has scored at least 77 more runs this year than have the Marlins. The White Sox have scored fewer runs this year than all but two teams. Miami is one and Detroit is the other. True to form, the Marlins were shutout on Sunday while the White Sox scored only four runs in a pair of losses over the weekend. The starting pitching matchup for this game is actually better than it looks considering Chicago's Ivan Nova is perfect in four career starts vs. Miami (4-0), posting a 0.98 ERA! Trevor Richards of the Marlins has an 0-7 team start record his last seven times out, but don't put all the blame on him as six of the seven losses saw him get no more than three runs of support. In his last 11 starts, Richards has given up three runs or less eight times. Play UNDER Miami-Chicago AAA |
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07-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers -115 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE We took the Reds both Saturday and Sunday, getting mixed results. They won for us Saturday, 3-2, but then failed to earn a split with St. Louis by losing 3-1 on Sunday. I's been a tough start to the second half for them as they've now dropped 7 of 10 with four of the losses coming by just one run. They've lost 9 of 12 overall and eventually all the close losses will wear on a team, especially one that is in last place and losing belief that "this could be their year." Milwaukee still has faith in 2019 after capturing five of six, including three of four out in Arizona this past weekend. The Brewers will go with Chase Anderson as the starter Monday and he's pitched better than he's been given credit for with a 0.975 WHIP at home and 0.886 WHIP his last three starts overall. For the Reds, Sonny Gray has pitched shockingly well of late, but we don't expect that to hold up, at least not on the road where he sports a 3-6 team start record. The Reds are just 19-29 on the road, which is a major reason why we've soured on them compared to the previous two days. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-22-19 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND The Indians are playing well right now. They've taken advantage of a really easy schedule to go 12-3 this month and their lone loss since the All Star Break was 1-0 to the Royals on Saturday. They bounced back from that to win 5-4 Sunday and now head to Toronto to face a Blue Jays team they swept earlier in the season. Toronto is just the next bad team on the Indians' schedule as they've won less than 38% of their games this year and are just 18-30 at home. They even lost yesterday to the Tigers, who had previously dropped 22 of 25 games. While Mike Clevingers' numbers on the road might be worrisome to some, it's a very small sample size (just three starts) and his last three starts overall have resulted in only two runs allowed in 17 innings. That includes six shutout innings on the road. Here he'll be facing a Blue Jays lineup that doesn't hit well at home (.221 average). Ryan Borucki is starting a major league game for the first time all year as injuries have limited him to just four minor league assignments. It's a tough spot for him facing a team that's won 28 of its last 39 games. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-21-19 | Nationals v. Braves -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA The finale of a four-game series between the top two teams in the NL East (set for Sunday night on ESPN) has seen a pitching change on the Washington side with Joe Ross replacing Austin Voth. This may seem inconsequential to some, but Ross has not started a major league game this season. He does have experience in the role (48 career starts) but his history vs. Atlanta isn't good as it's a 7.40 ERA in six games. The Braves, who are looking to earn a split of this series, are going with Kevin Gausman. Gausman hasn't appeared in the bigs since June 10th. He's been sidelined with plantar fasciitis, but looked good in his rehab start down for Triple-A Gwinnett. Atlanta is 19-9 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and we can't see them losing three of four here to the Nationals. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-21-19 | Lynx v. Aces -5.5 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS Las Vegas is off a very disappointing loss to Seattle. Disappointing in the sense that it snapped the Aces' five-game win streak and Seattle was really shorthanded. But for the second time this year, LV failed to score 70 points against the Storm. Perhaps they can swap stories about losing to Seattle with tonight's opponent as Minnesota also lost to the Storm in their last game. Their loss came Wednesday and saw them allow 90 points, a troubling sign. Las Vegas was a five-point winner up in Minnesota last month, so beating the Lynx here in Sin City shouldn't prove too difficult. Yes, forward A'ja Wilson was injured in the loss to Seattle. But we like how the Aces held the Storm to 27% shooting. They may not have won, but that kind of defense is what you like to see. The Lynx are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-21-19 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Houston has won the first two games of the series, 4-3 and 6-1. Texas has now lost six in a row after opening the second half with a couple of wins against these Astros. One of those two wins came with today's starter, Lance Lynn, on the mound. Lynn blanked Houston for seven innings that day, giving up only six hits while striking out 11. His only other start against Houston this year was an odd one as he gave up three solo home runs in a 3-0 loss back on May 10th. So it's been two quality starts with very different results due to three pitches. Despite a loss in his most recent start, Lynn is tied for the most wins among American League starters, so we should expect another quality effort here. The problem for the Rangers is they had only two hits yesterday against a pitcher that had not looked good in his first big league start. So there's no reason to think Rogelio Armenteros can't pitch well today, even though this will be his first career start. As a reliever, he did toss four scoreless innings earlier in the week. Play UNDER Texas-Houston AAA |
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07-21-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -102 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI We went with the Reds yesterday citing the fact that Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas just isn't the same pitcher on the road as he is at home. The Reds won 3-2 Saturday and it's a similar situation today with them facing Jack Flaherty. Just like Mikolas, Flaherty's numbers go up dramatically when he isn't starting at Busch Stadium. He has a 5.96 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in nine road starts this season, six of those ending up as Cardinals losses. St. Louis has lost the last five times Flaherty has started and he's personally winless over his last 10 starts. Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well for the Reds recently, despite having no wins to show for it - at least this month. But he has a 3.32 ERA his last seven starts and six of those he hasn't allowed more than three runs. The Reds easily could have taken the first three games of this series (blew a 7-run lead Friday), but will have to settle for a split instead. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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07-20-19 | Juan Adams v. Greg Hardy -108 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GREG HARDY Greg Hardy is obviously a controversial addition to the UFC roster. We're not endorsing him as a person by any means, but this is a really good price to bet on him. After looking completely outclassed in a DQ loss to Allen Crowder (Hardy threw an illegal knee strike), he bounced back with a TKO win over Dmitry Smoliakov back in April. The UFC seems hellbent on pushing Hardy and Juan Adams would seem to be the proverbial "tomato can" thrown in their to make Hardy look good. Adams suffered his first professional defeat (in only six fights) back in May to Arjan Singh Bhullar. The joke was he looked so poor in that fight that the UFC is relishing the opportunity to throw him in the Octagon with Hardy. The UFC is doing everything it can to make the former NFL player come across as a star and will continue to have him face the weakest of opponents. At even money, this is a solid bet. Play on GREG HARDY AAA |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI It was a wild one last night here in Cincinnati with the Cardinals prevailing 12-11, thanks to a 10-run inning. Unfortunately for the Reds, that's now four straight losses and they've lost their fair share of "close ones" this year, which is why they are in last place in the NL Central despite a positive run differential (+28). St. Louis is now very much alive in the playoff hunt after winning six of their last seven, but we see them taking a "step back" tonight. Cardinals pitching isn't the same on the road as it is at home and Miles Mikolas is very representative of that statement. We took the Under with Mikolas (it won), at home, his last time out. He tossed a complete game shutout vs. Pittsburgh, improving his ERA and WHIP to 2.15 and 0.95 at Busch Stadium. But on the road, Mikolas is 1-5 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Luis Castillo has been excellent for the Reds this year, especially at home with a 1.83 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He also just struck out 10 in a win at Wrigley Field on Monday. We saw the Cards give up 11 runs yesterday and it's highly unlikely they'll have that one big inning again tonight. That means an "L" in a starting pitching matchup that is NOT in their favor. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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07-20-19 | A's v. Twins -137 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA The Twins and A's have split the first two games of this series. The Twins were our *10* Game of the Week on Thursday and a three-run walkoff HR provided us with a 6-3 victory. The A's bounced back last night, winning 5-3. While Oakland is hotter at the moment (won 6 of 7), Minnesota still has the better overall record and we'll go back to them tonight. Jose Berrios continues to pitch well for them, although he personally has nothing to show for it over the last month or so. But this will be Berrios' first time pitching at Target Field since a gem he tossed back on 6.17 vs. Boston where he allowed only one run and five hits in eight innings of work. He also finished with 10 strikeouts and no walks that day. Brett Anderson has been feeling it of late for the A's with three straight strong efforts on the mound. But despite a 6-1 TSR in his last seven starts overall, Berrios still has the better numbers. The Twins are 28-10 their L38 games following a loss. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-20-19 | Royals v. Indians -153 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Not sure why Cleveland has become available at such a cheap price, but we will certainly leap at the opportunity to take them as they look to make it seven straight wins overall. They beat the Royals here at Progressive Field last night, 10-5, and that's after sweeping them out in KC earlier this month. The Indians have really feasted on these lesser teams in the AL Central as they just swept the Tigers (again!) in the series before this. Adam Plutko may not be dominant, but the Indians have won six of his seven starts so far and he goes Saturday against Jacob Junis, who has lost a pair of decisions to Cleveland over the last month. He allowed seven runs the last time he faced them and considering how the Indians offense has looked recently, we expect them to hit Junis hard again tonight. Kansas City is 14-34 on the road this season and just 1-5 after giving up 10 or more runs in the previous game. It's pretty clear to us that the Indians are the better team here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal +6 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL Montreal is going for its first three-game win streak since the end of the 2016 season here. The oddsmakers don't like their chances, installing them as underdogs at home vs. Edmonton. That's certainly understandable given what the expectations were for the Als coming into the season. But in their only home game so far, the Als pulled what is probably the biggest upset of this CFL season to date, handing Hamilton its only loss and doing so as 12.5-point underdogs. We took them in that game and then they followed with a second straight 36-point effort, this time beating Ottawa. We like them plus the points again here as Edmonton is highly unlikely to play as well as they did last week vs. B.C. That was a spirited game when they faced former QB Mike Reilly and emotions were running high. Two of the Eskimos three wins this have been at BC's expense. The other was an opening week win over the Als, 32-25. Montreal covered the eight-point spot in that game and is now getting a similar number at home. An easy call here. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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07-19-19 | Aces -2.5 v. Storm | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS (10*) Seattle has survived a bevy of turmoil to win three straight, their longest win streak of the season. They're now 11-8 overall and 7-3 at home and tonight finds them hosting Las Vegas, the first of two meetings that will take place between the teams over the next five days. Las Vegas is even hotter though as they've ripped off five straight wins and have been off since Saturday. Seattle just played two nights ago in Minnesota where they won 90-79. But with the ongoing off-court distractions involving Natasha Howard (domestic violence allegations) as well as already being out three starters, we can't see this run continuing for the Storm. Las Vegas already beat Seattle once this season, holding them to a season-low 56 points, and is now in an excellent spot to beat them again. The Aces are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've taken the court on three or more days rest. There's a reason they are the favorite here. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 1-31 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Scoring is up this year in the CFL to about 55.3 points/game. That's a 9% increase from last season. But don't tell this to Ottawa as their last two games have resulted in only 33 points scored - total - and now they're saddled with a backup QB (Jonathon Jennings). But if you recall, the last time we played an Over with the Redblacks, things turned into a real "shootout" as they beat Saskatchewan 44-41. They actually went Over the total themselves. That isn't going to happen here, but once again they figure to give up a lot as they face the unbeaten Blue Bombers, who are 4-0 and averaging 34.5 points/game. Winnipeg scored a season-high 48 points last week vs. Toronto as QB Matt Nichols continues to play well. He's thrown for 10 touchdowns already. One key with Jennings is that while this is his first time starting for Ottawa, it's not his first "rodeo" in the CFL. He's actually gone 5-1 against Nichols as a starter, throwing for more yards and touchdowns in those head to head battles. Play OVER Ottawa-Winnipeg AAA |
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07-19-19 | Blue Jays -154 v. Tigers | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Tigers have just been awful of late and there are no signs of them turning things around anytime soon. They were just swept in Cleveland and outscored 29-11 in the four games. Overall, they've won just two times this month and are 3-20 their last 23 games. So Toronto should be happy to be paying a visit to the Motor City this weekend. Incredibly, the Tigers are just 12-32 at home this year and are -2.7 runs/game! The Blue Jays aren't exactly on a hot streak either, but they are substantially better than the Tigers. It helps that they'll be facing Jordan Zimmerman tonight. Zimmerman is still winless for the Tigers (0-6 in 11 starts) with a 7.01 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. He's been even worse lately, giving up seven runs in both July starts. He has a 9.23 ERA his last nine starts and opponents are hitting .363 off him. Marcus Stroman should do well here for the Jays. He has a 2.17 ERA in four previous starts vs. the Tigers and looked good his last time out when he held the Yankees to three runs. He also recent threw six shutout innings at Fenway Park. This should be a walk in the park by comparison. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO Toronto is the only team in the CFL yet to taste victory this season as they're 0-4 and really reeling. Three of their four losses have been by 25 points or more and the one that wasn't was a heart-breaking one-point defeat to B.C. on a rare walkoff rouge. Calgary figures to be in an ornery mood this evening as they are off a 30-23 loss to Hamilton last week. Three of the Stampeders four games so far have been decided by a TD or less. So while we understand why the line is as large as it is, we wouldn't want to lay it. Calgary has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been off a SU loss. Remember that starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell is still on the injured list. Argos quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 388 yards last week vs Winnipeg last week, in addition to three touchdowns. The underdog will not go down quietly in this one as they are desperate for a win. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -129 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MINNESOTA The Twins lost yesterday, which means for the first time this season, they're on a three-game losing streak. Now they start a series with the hottest team in baseball, Oakland. The A's have won their last six games and just took two from Seattle where they scored 19 runs and allowed only four. They're now within 4.5 games of Houston in the AL West. But the 6-game win streak came against Seattle and Chicago, two terrible teams. Minnesota, while on its longest losing streak of the year, still leads the Central with a 58-36 record. They are 25-11 off a loss and 3-1 after giving up 10 or more runs. Kyle Gibson toes the rubber tonight and the Twins are 12-6 in his 18 starts so far. Gibson beat the A's back on July 3rd by allowing only three runs in six innings. He was up against Michael Fiers, same as he is here, and it's notable that Gibson won on the road because Fiers is not as effective pitching on the road. Fiers has 1.85 ERA and 0.92 WHIP at home. On the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This is a great time to buy low on Minnesota while at the same time selling high on Oakland. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-18-19 | Wings v. Sparks -7.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA The Sparks are playing short-handed here due to the 10-game suspension of Riquna Williams. In the games that Williams has started, LA has gone 5-1. They are just 4-6 with her not in the starting five. But we believe they'll have little difficulty defeating Dallas by a wide margin Thursday as the Wings have not only yet to win on the road this season (0-8), they're being outscored by 11.6 points in those games. The Wings have lost three straight and five of six, the only win coming as a five-point home underdog against LA. So the Sparks are out for revenge here and thus won't be lacking for any motivation in the wake of the Williams suspension. Ironically, the Sparks only loss in their last six games was the one at Dallas. They've won three straight home games, averaging almost 93 points/game in the process. The home team is undervalued here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-17-19 | Rays v. Yankees -149 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the YANKEES The Yankees have really had the Rays number this year and that's why they are the ones out in front in the American League East. Yesterday's 10-5 victory gives the Yanks not only a 10-5 head to head advantage over the Rays in 2019, but also a six-game advantage in the division. New York has the best record in the entire American League right now and has been outstanding here at home where their record is 34-16. That includes a 16-3 mark as a favorite of -125 to -175. Domingo German starts Wednesday. The team has an 11-3 record when he pitches and he has a 2.10 ERA at home. He faced the Rays in Tampa back in May and got the 'W.' He's also 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in his two starts since returning from a hip injury. Tampa's Chirnos got a lot of run support his last time out (Rays beat Baltimore 16-4), but that's unlikely to repeat itself tonight on ESPN. The Rays have lost Chirnos' last four starts vs. teams that have winning records. Play on the YANKEES AAA |
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07-17-19 | Reds v. Cubs -126 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs evened this series up at a game apiece last night, beating the Reds 4-3 in 10 innings. While this is a matchup of the first and last place teams in the NL Central, it's not as if the gap is all that overwhelming. Cincy finds itself only 6.5 games back in this wide open division and actually has the 2nd best run differential of the 5 teams. But there's no disputing the Cubs are still better as they've gone 4-1 since the All Star Break and more often that not handle their business here at Wrigley Field. They are 33-17 at home this season while the Reds are 19-28 on the road. Cincy also struggles in day games (just 13-27). Yu Darvish is starting today for the Cubs and he's never lost to the Reds before. While winless overall since April 27th, that's very misleading as 12 of his last 13 starts have been no-decisions and his WHIP in the last three is 0.96. Sonny Gray goes for the Reds. While he's pitched well his last three starts as well, not sure he should be trusted in this spot. After yesterday's loss, the Reds are now just 17-35 their past 52 games at Wrigley. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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07-17-19 | Mets v. Twins -159 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -159 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA Last night, the Mets actually beat the Twins 3-2. But we shouldn't have to tell you which team is having the better season. Minnesota leads the AL Central (58-35) while the Mets are floundering over in the NL East (43-51). The Mets have now won three straight, but that streak stops today as yesterday was a real anomaly. Not only is this the Mets first three game win streak in nearly two months, but last night marked just the third time in 32 tries this season that they won when scoring three runs or less. Minnesota has not lost three in a row this entire season, a fate they are facing this afternoon. So they're a good bet to win behind Martin Perez, who will be making his first start since the All Star Break. The Mets Jason Vargas really struggled last Friday, giving up six runs to a Marlins team that has scored the fewest number of runs in the National League. Now he has to face one of baseball's highest scoring offenses. The Twins are 17-4 after scoring 2 runs or less their previous game. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-16-19 | Mariners v. A's -165 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND Seattle has been in a bad way for some time now and their 2nd half got off to an ugly start with them being swept by the Angels. The first of those three games was a 13-0 loss where they got no hit. They scored just five runs in the next two games and have lost 8 of 9 overall. Oakland is looking like a team that wants the Wild Card as they have won four in a row and just swept the White Sox here at home. The A's took two of three up in Seattle right before the All Star Break and should like their chances here tonight as they are now 29-18 at home while the Mariners are 18-29 on the road. Daniel Mengden won his start in that last Seattle series as the team's record is 5-1 in his six starts. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzales, who has a 5-1 TSR his last 6 starts, but the seven starts before that the TSR was 0-7. The one Seattle win last week over Oakland did come with Gonzales pitching, but this team is just 9-28 its last 37 games on the road. Play on OAKLANDÂ AAA |
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07-16-19 | Braves v. Brewers -164 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE It's been a bad start to the 2nd half for Milwaukee and really their struggles go back even further than that as they've dropped 8 of 10. But they definitely look to have the edge in starting pitching this evening over Atlanta. Brandon Woodruff gets the nod Tuesday and he's got a 14-4 team start record (best on the staff) with a 1.14 WHIP. He's even been a little sharper of late, giving up just one run in each of his last starts while going 13 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. That's certainly what you want to see. As for Atlanta's Bryse Wilson, he has a 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in just three starts and Atlanta's lost two of the three with both losses coming on the road. The Braves are 4-0 since the break and 8-1 their last 9 overall, but should hit a wall tonight at Miller Park where the home team has gone 9-1 with Woodruff on the mound on the mound this year. Woodruff has not lost a decision at home, going 8-0 in the 10 starts. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-16-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers -157 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS The Rangers and Diamondbacks begin a two-game set on Tuesday. While this is an Interleague matchup, it'll actually be the fourth series between the teams in the last two years. All have been two games and the one earlier this year out in Arizona saw the teams split the pair. Texas is having the slightly stronger year overall so far as they are six games above .500 while Arizona is at the break even mark of 47-47. Both started their 2nd half with a win, but come in on two-game losing streaks. The Rangers actually took the first two games from the Astros over the weekend, only to lose the next two. The Diamondbacks lost two of three in St. Louis. Both teams are excited about who they have starting today, but we like Lance Lynn for Texas more as he's gotten it done over a longer stretch, plus he has a solid history when facing Arizona. Alex Young has made only two starts for the Diamondbacks and while the last one was a no-hitter (pulled after six innings), we're not sure any real conclusions can be made. Lynn is 12-4 this year and 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts. The Rangers have won the last five times he's started. Arizona is 1-5 its last six road games. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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07-15-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER The Pirates got swept over the weekend (in Chicago) while the Cardinals are off a successful series with the Diamondbacks (took 2 of 3) right here at home. This looks to be a crucial series in the crowded National League Central where all five teams are separated by only 6.5 games. St. Louis looks to be in better shape though coming out of the break and their pitching staff tends to be a lot better at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas has a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home, far better numbers than what he's produced on the road. A 2.96 ERA his L9 starts vs. Pittsburgh is also nice as is the fact he has 18 strikeouts against only two walks his past four starts. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won each of Joe Musgrove's last four starts as he's on a bit of a hot streak (1.64 ERA in last 22 IP). This sets up to be a rather low-scoring affair as every Cardinals game over the weekend saw seven or fewer total runs scored (Under was 3-0) and the Under is 3-1-1 when Musgrove starts on seven or more days rest. Play UNDER Pittsburgh-St. Louis AAA |
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07-15-19 | Reds v. Cubs -135 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs started the second half hot by sweeping the Pirates. They now lead the NL Central by 2.5 games and will turn to a different divisional foe in Cincinnati. The Reds may be in last place, but actually have the division's 2nd best run differential. Unfortunately for them though, this series is at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are 32-16 at the Friendly Confines and today's starter (Kyle Hendricks) tends to pitch very well here. Hendricks has a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. He's also got two quality starts under his belt against the Reds this season. The Reds lost two of three out in Coors over the weekend, giving up a lot of runs (19) over the last two games. This should be a very different series in terms of the offense as the Cubs pitching staff is allowing only 3.7 runs/game at home. The Reds typically don't have a strong offense, so while Luis Castillo has pitched well for them, we just don't see Cincy matching up here. The Cubs are 50-17 their last 67 home games against teams with losing road records. They've won 7 of the last 10 times Hendricks has started a series opener. The Reds are just 2-6 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Play on the CUBS AAA |
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07-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -175 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on BOSTON Being that they had to play into the late hours of last night, and lost, a case could be made for this not being a great spot to take the Red Sox. But the bottom line here is they are so superior to Toronto that last night's events hardly matter. It was a very good Dodgers team that beat them Sunday night, 7-4, a game which ended up going 12 innings. The Blue Jays' second half got off to a losing start by them dropping two of three in New York. They've now lost six of nine, all to division rivals, and should be viewed as a non-contender moving forward. Boston did just take two of three up in Toronto right before the All Star Break. They are 35-15 vs. Toronto the past three seasons and 22-9 the past two. Rick Porcello should get back on track here against a Blue Jays lineup which has produced two runs or fewer in five of its last six games. The last time Tyler Thornton started against Boston, he gave up seven runs and 11 hits while lasting only 2 2/3 innings. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-14-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -105 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON The Dodgers finally were able to win a game at Fenway Park, beating the Red Sox last night 9-2. But even with All Star starter Hyun-Jin Ryu starting tonight's game on ESPN, we don't think they can make it two straight. While Ryu was unquestionably great throughout the first half of the season, perhaps the All Star festivities took their toll on him. Also, it's not like Boston won't have an ace of their own going Sunday night. David Price is undefeated going all the way back to April 27th, a stretch of 11 starts, and has allowed two runs or less in his last four starts. Remember that Price beat Ryu here in Boston in Game 2 of last year's World Series. The Red Sox are 21-6 in Price's last 27 home starts and 7-1 his last eight interleague starts. But here's the real kicker - the Dodgers are just 3-15 in Ryu's last 18 starts away from home against a team with a winning record. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-14-19 | Mets -205 v. Marlins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the METS We had the Mets with Syndergaard last night (a 4-2 win!) and we like them even more today with deGrom pitching. When Robinson Cano hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the top of the eighth Saturday, it had to feel sweet for the Mets, who had lost four in a row to Miami dating back to a sweep in May. But they'd also won the season's first five meetings and the fact remains that the Marlins are the only team below them in the NL East standings. While this is the second straight year that deGrom has a team start record not equal to his own individual prowess, we'll still lean on a reigning Cy Young winner that has posted a 2.96 ERA his last seven trips to the mound. Miami averages only 3.6 runs/game at home and will struggle to put many on the board today. Sandy Alcantara has been pretty inconsistent for the Marlins. He allowed six runs his last start here at home. The Marlins are 5-17 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this year. Play on the METS AAA |
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07-14-19 | Twins v. Indians -132 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND What a disappointment this series has been for Cleveland. They went into the All Star Break riding a six-game win streak and were just 5.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central. They're now 7.5 games back after losing the last two days. Friday's game saw the Indians blow a 3-1 lead while another shaky bullpen effort resulted in a 6-2 loss Saturday. Shane Bieber starts Sunday's finale and he can claim an 8-3 record in 18 starts (12-6 TSR) with a 0.99 WHIP. Leading up to the Break, Bieber had really been "lights out" with a string of five straight strong efforts. He has a 1.69 ERA and 0.66 WHIP his last three starts and back on June 4th he beat Minnesota here at Progressive Field, allowing just two runs and five hits. Bieber lasted seven innings that day. For the Twins, All Star Jose Berrios has had Cleveland's number in two starts this year, but we think the third time will be the charm here for the Tribe. Berrios does not have a win in any of his last five starts overall. We remain unconvinced that the Twins offense will be able to match their production from the 1st half of the season down the stretch. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -164 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON The Red Sox really seem to have the Dodgers number, don't they? All it took was five games to win the World Series last Fall and last night was another whitewashing with Boston coming out ahead 8-1. The Dodgers have now lost seven straight times at Fenway Park. They've also lost four in a row going back to the first half of the season. You'd have to go back to early April and a six-game slide to find the only worse stretch of baseball LA has played in 2019. Usually, they have the edge in starting pitching, but not here with Ross Stripling facing Chris Sale. Sale hasn't been as good in years past, but this is a pretty amazing price on him, pitching at home no less. Stripling has given up four runs in each of his last two starts and didn't make it out of the fifth either time. He's not made it past the fifth since April 14th vs. Milwaukee. He's only in the rotation because of an injury to Rich Hill. The Red Sox have quietly won five in a row, so this is a bad time for the Dodgers to be returning to Beantown. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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07-13-19 | Twins v. Indians -136 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Cleveland let a golden opportunity to gain ground on Minnesota slip away last night, blowing a 3-1 lead and losing 5-3. That ended a six-game win streak by the Indians and they're now 6.5 games back of the Twins in the AL Central. We did have the Indians in last night's game, which left a sour taste in our mouths, but they should bounce back today with Trevor Bauer on the hill. Bauer has the fourth most strikeouts (149) in the American League and leads all of baseball with 132 innings pitched. The Indians have won his last six starts. Minnesota starter Odorizzi is heading in the opposite direction with four straight shaky performances. Odorizzi's ERA and WHIP in the last three starts are 8.76 and 1.78. Again, Cleveland had the Twins where they wanted them last night, only for an error to open the door for some two-out scoring. Minnesota definitely overachieved in the 1st half of the season and we see the Indians making this division a tight race in the 2nd half. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-13-19 | Mets -130 v. Marlins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS Since winning each of the first five meetings this year, the Mets have seemingly forgotten how to beat the Marlins. They've now LOST four straight times to the only team in the division that's below them. All four losses have been here in Miami. There was a three-game sweep back in May, then an 8-4 loss last night. Fortunately for the Mets though, they'll send Noah Syndergaard out on Saturday and he should be able to reverse this trend of losing to the Marlins. Syndergaard is 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA vs. Miami in his career, pitching 62 innings. He did take the loss back in May, but allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings. The problem was the Mets didn't score (lost 3-0) as Miami's Sandy Alcantara tossed a complete game shutout. We strongly doubt that today's starter, Zac Gallen, will deliver a similar performance. This is just the 4th start for Gallen, who has yet to go longer than five innings. The Mets have won Syndergaard's last four starts despite him not really being at his best. Against a team he usually dominates, we should get the best Syndergaard has to offer here. Play on METS AAA |
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07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa UNDER 51 | Top | 36-19 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Montreal-Ottawa Montreal stunned the CFL community last week with a 36-29 upset of Hamilton. The Als were 12.5-point home underdogs in the contest and somehow beat an undefeated team that had looked unstoppable its previous two games. One of those two games was a 41-10 win over the Als. That was in Hamilton and the Als are back on the road this week to face Ottawa, who suffered their first loss of the season last week as well. It was not an impressive showing from the Redblacks as they managed just 14 points at home against the unbeaten Blue Bombers. This game figures to be another low-scoring affair as we just can't see Montreal duplicating its surprising offensive success from last week. After all, they scored just 35 points the first two games combined. William Stanback had a huge game rushing the ball last week, but the Redblacks' front seven should be up to the challenge. We're not sold on either QB in this matchup either. The Under has hit in the last nine meetings between these East Division rivals. Play UNDER Montreal-Ottawa AAA |
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07-12-19 | Toronto +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The Argos are the only winless team in the CFL, but at least they were able to play a competitive game last week. We said that would be the case and took the points with them at home against B.C. The result was a wire to wire cover with the Argos losing by just a single point, 18-17 as 7.5-point pups. That was a far cry from what happened the first two weeks as they lost 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. It'll be another hard game this week as they head to Manitoba to play the Bombers. Winnipeg is the only unbeaten team in the league, but the oddsmakers are being more than generous here. The Bombers have not won by more than 15 this year and have not been favored by more than five points in any game. It's unlikely they'll win big here considering QB Matt Nichols isn't 100 percent (will start though) and neither is top defensive player Adam Bighill (status is questionable). The Argos are still hungry for that first win and thus won't be throwing in the towel here. We'll grab the big number. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -127 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -127 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on CLEVELAND This is obviously a huge series for the Indians. They trail the Twins by 5.5 games in the AL Central, which really isn't all that bad when you think about it. Minnesota probably could not have played any better than it did in the first half while Cleveland was viewed as largely disappointing. But the Tribe has started to put it together with a six-game win streak and they are 11-3 the last 14 games. Now they definitely took advantage of a weak schedule. But after Cleveland got to host the ASG, look for the home team to give the fans something else to cheer about tonight. Mike Clevinger has pitched pretty well in his five starts. He has a 0.986 WHIP. Remember this is a pitcher that had 200+ strikeouts a year ago. Minnesota's rotation totally overachieved in the first half, including Kyle Gibson who has an 11-6 TSR despite a mediocre 4.13 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. It's highly unlikely that the Twins will continue to average 6.2 runs/game on the road moving forward. Don't count Cleveland out in this division race and we like them tonight. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-12-19 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH +1.5 Taking Pittsburgh on the run line (+1.5) here as they were just able to defeat the Cubs three times in a four-game set played right before the All Star Break. Given that, we see no reason why they couldn't win here, even though the Cubs have proven to be a much better team at home. The last three starts for Yu Darvish have not been good as the Cubs have lost all of them with the Japanese native posting a 6.62 ERA. He has a very similar ERA for the year here at Wrigley (6.23), so that's another poor sign. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won the last four times Chris Archer has started, including a 6-5 decision against Darvish and the Cubs back on July 3rd. In the final week before the break, Pittsburgh went 5-2 and averaged 8.0 runs/game. We think they'll score enough here that the worst-case result for them is a one-run loss. Play PITTSBURGH on the run line (+1.5) AAA |
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -157 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -157 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers can't lose three in a row to the Padres can they? We're willing to bet that the answer is "no" on Sunday as LA looks to cap an outstanding first half of the season with a big division win. They already lead the NL West by 14.5 games and are poised to run away with things in the second half. All the trends point to a win today, including a 20-10 record when off a loss and 17-5 mark in day games. This is a team that's gone 37-11 at home so far with visiting teams averaging just 3.2 runs/game here. San Diego hasn't scored much in the three games in this series (just 7 runs) and shouldn't today either against Ross Stripling, who has a 2.61 ERA in 13 career appearances vs. SD. As for the Dodgers, who are just the 15th team in MLB history to reach 60 wins by the All Star Break, they should rediscover the offense against Joey Lucchesi. Lucchesi has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 7.64 ERA in four starts. He's also still winless on the road in 2019 thanks to a 6.10 ERA. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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07-07-19 | Angels v. Astros -153 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on HOUSTON Everyone expects the Astros to coast to another AL West pennant as they're set to be much healthier in the second half and that means trouble for the other four teams in the division. The 'Stros have already opened up a 6.5-game advantage over the rest of the field and today will look to make it two straight over the Angels. It was a 4-0 shutout on Saturday, led by Gerrit Cole, who increased his MLB-leading strikeout total to 170. Because it's not Cole or Justin Verlander starting today's game, we're able to get a much cheaper price on Houston and it makes sense to grab it. Jose Urquidy is making his second career start and he should pitch just fine here. Probably a lot better than Angels starter Suarez, who has a 6.13 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three starts. Houston is 5-1 off a shutout win this season and continues to dominated the rest of the West, going 25-7 in all division games. They are also 32-14 at home. The Angels are far too mediocre to compete with a team like the Astros. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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07-07-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO Baltimore has won three in a row for the first time in three months and today will be going for its very first series sweep of the season. On the flip side, it is Toronto trying to avoid the dubious distinction of being the ones swept by the last place Orioles, at home no less. It's just tough for us to imagine Baltimore winning again as this is a team on pace to set a new record for worst run differential in a single season (currently -160). We concede the Blue Jays have their own set of problems, but they are still the better team here. It'll be a bullpen day for Baltimore, starting with Asher Wojciechowski and including the likes of Gabriel Ynoa and David Hess. The Orioles pitching staff has been atrocious all year and we expect today to be no different. For Toronto, Trent Thornton will get the starting nod and while he's been far from Cy Young, we think he's a much better option that what Baltimore will be sending out there. The Jays are 4-1 in Thornton's last five starts against a team with a losing record. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-06-19 | A's -129 v. Mariners | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAKLAND Oakland looks to sink Seattle again after beating them 5-2 last night here at T-Mobile Park. After starting the season out red hot (won 13 of first 15 games), the Mariners have been as bad as any team in baseball, losing 52 of their last 77 games. They've dropped seven of eight coming into tonight, including three in a row at home where they're now only 17-28 for the year. Marco Gonzales hardly seems like the right answer to start Saturday as he's got a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine previous home starts. The Seattle offense isn't doing much scoring either, averaging only 2.9 runs/game over the last week. The A's turn to Chris Bassitt in this spot, looking to win for a fourth straight time with him on the mound. The last two times Bassitt pitched both came on the road and he was the underdog. The A's ended up winning those games 7-3 and 12-3 and tonight the odds are even more tilted in Bassitt's favor. Incredibly, the Mariners have lost 21 of their last 26 home games to teams that have a winning record (Oakland comes in at 49-40). Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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07-06-19 | Randa Markos v. Cláudia Gadelha -230 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on Gadelha to win This is a three-round women's bout at straweight (115 lbs) with perennial contender Claudia Gadelha taking on Randa Markos. There seem to be some who feel that Gadelha's best days are behind here, but we won't make the mistake of falling into that trap here. Yes, she's dropped two of her last three fights (both by decision). But her biggest issue from the past (stamina) shouldn't be that big of a concern in a three-round fight and based on strength alone she should be able to neutralize Markos' wrestling ability. Markos comes in with only a 9-6-1 record, not very good at all, and it's notable that she's coming off a win earlier in the year. Back in March, she submitted Angela Hill in the 1st round, but that's set her up to be overvalued by the market as Markos hasn't strung together consecutive victories since beginning her career 3-0. Since then, she's only 6-6-1. Really this isn't a high price to lay against a fighter of her pedestrian caliber at all. Play on CLAUDIA GADELHA AAA |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +8 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO The Argos are 0-2 and haven't looked good in either game, losing 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. But they're getting a more than generous number tonight at home against a B.C. team that also comes in winless on the year. The Lions are 0-3, so laying more than a score on the road with them doesn't sound like the best idea right now. This will be their third road game in as many weeks and we worry about the team's psyche after blowing a double digit lead last week to a backup QB in Calgary. The Lions have given up an average of 36 points through three games so don't be surprised if Toronto gets on track on offense here. While it's due to injury, we think the change at the QB position will prove fruitful for the Argos as Opening Day starter James Franklin simply was not getting the job done. It'll be only the 8th career start for McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but that's more experience than Franklin had. Bethel-Thompson led two come from behind wins in limited action last season. British Columbia will be without its top receiver tonight as Bryan Burnham (280 yards) is hurt. Look for the Argos to grab the cash tonight at BMO Field. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-06-19 | Rangers v. Twins -154 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA Minnesota came through for us yesterday and we'll come right back with them again this afternoon. We opened yesterday's writeup by saying the Twins were very much in "good shape" going into the All Star Break as they'll be in first place in the AL Central (no matter what happens the next two days) and that's something no one would have predicted at the start of the season. They've also set a new MLB record for most home runs hit before the All Star Break with 165. Last night saw them set the record by banging out four more HRs and the game was never close as it was 6-0 by the end of the second inning and ended up a 15-6 rout. Saturday's starter for the Rangers is Jesse Chavez and while he's got good numbers, the Twins offensive prowess is likely to overwhelm him this afternoon. Michael Pineda goes for Minnesota as he's given up no more than three runs in eight of his last nine starts. Texas is just 5-16 its last 21 road games against teams that have a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-06-19 | Lynx v. Sun -8 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CONNECTICUT A quick note if you're wondering about last night's WNBA selection: It was suspended due to the earthquake felt in Vegas and thus obviously "no action." We expect no such problems this afternoon in Connecticut where the Sun host the Lynx on ESPN2. Connecticut is a perfect 6-0 at home this year and happy to be back at the Mohegan Sun Arena after being absolutely humiliated in their most recent game, a 102-59 loss to Conference-leading Washington. Look for the Sun to take their frustrations out on the Lynx, who are not the same team they once were. Connecticut has actually lost three in a row, obviously all on the road, but they're a much different team at home where they average 85.2 points/game and are outscoring teams by nearly 12 points/game. The Sun have had a full week to recover from the debacle in D.C. while the Lynx played earlier in the week. While the Lynx won by 17, it was at home against the team with the worst record in the league (Atlanta). We have no hesitation laying the number here as Connecticut has won six straight times over Minnesota, including one on the road last month. The Lynx are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games. Play on CONNECTICUT AAA |
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07-05-19 | Mystics v. Aces -1 | Top | 51-36 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS The pointspread has treated these two teams quite differently of late. Washington has not only won, but also covered, five straight games. This has them on top of the WNBA standings and they are leading the league with 86.8 points/game. Over in the West, you'll find Las Vegas in first place despite the Aces failing to cover four in a row. They did win on Tuesday, 90-82 over Chicago, but were nine-point favorites in that game. This is a big revenge spot for LV as they lost by 23 here at home to Washington late last month. You can bet that result hasn't been forgotten. This now looks to be a great value play on the Aces in Sin City as they certainly deserve to be the betting favorite here as they've won the last four at home since the blowout loss to the Mystics. Washington can't possibly play as well as it did in a 102-59 beatdown of Connecticut last Saturday. We're laying the small number. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA |
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07-05-19 | Rangers v. Twins -166 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA It was a "bad day at the office" for the Twins on the 4th (of July) as they lost 7-2 to the A's. But your AL Central leaders are still in very good shape heading into the All-Star Break. They are guaranteed to have the division lead, no matter what happens this weekend, and that's something few would have predicted at the start of the season. Back home, we see them bouncing back today against Texas. The Rangers have been the other surprise in the American League, but they're simply not as good as Minnesota is. Prior to winning yesterday, the Rangers had dropped four in a row. A big problem for them today is Adrian Sampson's 0-4 TSR on the road. It comes with an 8.85 ERA and 1.80 WHIP as well. It just so happens that Minnesota is #2 in the league in runs scored. They are also 26-14 at home, including 13-2 when -175 or higher on the moneyline. Twins starter Perez is going to be really motivated here as he faces his former team for the first time. Perez has been much better than expected for his new team and has a 1.08 WHIP here at Target Field. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-05-19 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER The Angels made a pitching change as they'll now open with Ramirez, who will quickly give way to Felix Pena. The move had no effect on our read on the total for this game as the Angels figure to give up plenty of runs no matter who is on the mound for them. Houston seems to have found its stride again, winning five in a row. They'll send Justin Verlander out today, but before you mark this as an automatic 'W' for the Astros, be aware that Verlander has allowed at least three runs in each of his last five starts. He allowed 10 home runs in June. So don't be surprised if the Angels score more runs than expected Friday. Whether or not it's enough to win is a different matter altogether. Pena has a 4.92 ERA in the relief role this year and the Astros have scored 24 runs in just two games vs. the Angels this season. The Over is 14-6-3 in the Angels last 23 road games and it is 7-0-1 for the Astros if they allowed two runs or less in their previous game. (They are coming off a 4-2 win at Colorado). Play OVER Los Angeles-Houston AAA |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on OTTAWA We are guaranteed at least one unbeaten team left in the CFL after Week 4 as both Winnipeg and Ottawa are 2-0 heading into this cross-division showdown. The Bombers have beaten both British Columbia (33-23 in Week 1) and Edmonton (28-21 in last week's home opener). This will be the first time they're playing without a bye. Ottawa happens to be coming off a bye here after downing Calgary and Saskatchewan by a combined seven points. A win here would give them an impressive 3-0 mark against the West, which would be very impressive considering it's perceived to be the league's stronger division. The Redblacks have put up 76 points in two games. That 38.0 point per game average is #1 in the league and a full 7.5 PPG more than #3 Winnipeg. QB Davis looked much better in his second start with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Plus, he connected on 6 of 9 deep throws for 176 yards. Ottawa didn't cover last week, but they are 13-6 ATS following an ATS loss and should prove to be too tough at home this week. We'll lay the short number. Play on OTTAWA AAA |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL "Hamilton is humming" they say and it's tough to disagree at this point as the Ti-Cats have started the year 3-0 and have outscored those three opponents 128-41. They're 3-0 ATS in those games as well. After an underwhelming performance in Week 1 where they scored only 23 points, the Taibbis have put up 105 points in just the last two games, beating Toronto 64-14 and Montreal 41-10. The Als are again the opponents this week and after they lost by 31 last week, this may seem like a "tough sell." But this is way too high of a number for Hamilton to lay on the road. They were only -3.5 in Toronto and last week's number was very similar, only that was at home. There's value to be had here, even though Montreal is 0-2. Hamilton is 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 July games. Play on MONTREAL AAA |
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07-04-19 | Phillies v. Braves -152 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA The Braves are in control of the NL East right now and will look to make it two of three over the Phillies tonight. They go for the series win with Mike Soroka on the hill and they've won his last six starts. Soroka is 9-1 overall (14 starts) with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He's given up more than three runs in just one of the 14 starts, that being June 12th vs. the Pirates. The Braves are 11-3 with him on the mound this year. The Phillies have not faced him. They've scored just four runs in two games off Braves pitching so far in the series. We're not sure Philly can count on Zach Eflin to keep them in this one as he has a 5.82 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his past three starts. The Phillies are 3-9 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175 while Atlanta is 18-8 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. The Braves also average 5.8 runs per game at home, a really strong number. The only team scoring more at home this year is Colorado, who is always #1. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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07-04-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Not that many runs have been scored in this series so far. Nor do we expect many runs to be scored in today's early start between the Marlins and Nationals. The home team is 2 for 2 in the series thus far, winning 3-2 and 3-1. That's par for the course of late for both teams with Washington now winning 7 of 8 overall and Miami losing 6 of its last 8. That time has seen the Nationals go 5 for 5 head to head with the Marlins. This game sees the Fish having more of a chance due to Elieser Hernandez, who has a 0.985 WHIP after four starts. Hernandez has allowed three runs or less every time out so far. For the Nats, Sanchez has allowed 2 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. He's 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA in those six starts. The Under is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 road games. This is of course a team that is last in the National League in runs scored. Play UNDER Miami-Washington AAA |
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07-03-19 | Giants v. Padres -133 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO San Diego hasn't done well in this series, losing the first two games 13-2 and 10-4. We had the Giants in the opener, but expect the Padres to avoid the sweep. Yes, San Francisco has won three straight and outscored its opponents 33-10 in that time. But there's a reason they are still in last place in the NL West. Prior to that, they were looking at a -95 run differential on the year, the worst in the National League. They are 1-4 this season following three consecutive wins. So we expect them to "slip up" tonight as the previous two days are not indicative of the matchup here. The Padres desperately need this game with a series in LA looming on the horizon. It's a battle of rookie right-handers with Anderson and Quantrill starting. The two have similar numbers. We view the difference being San Diego's motivation and the fact San Francisco simply isn't as good as they've looked lately. They come back down to Earth tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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07-03-19 | Twins v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDERÂ We missed with Minnesota yesterday as Oakland won its fourth straight. The difference was a grand slam from Chris Herrmann, who was suiting up for the A's for the very first time. Take that grand slam away and the Twins would have won 6-4. Tonight's game figures to be a lower-scoring affair as Oakland has made a pitching change from Anderson to Fiers and this should work in our favor. Fiers has a 0.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last three starts and his numbers at home are quite impressive for the year. Fiers has made seven straight quality starts and during that time you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Twins have lost four of five and the offense has started to taper off. Kyle Gibson was one of several starters overachieving for them early on, but he's definitely come back down to Earth his last two starts. But we expect Gibson to get back on track here as he's working on plenty of rest and the Under is 5-1 his last six starts vs. the AL West. Play UNDER Minnesota-Oakland AAA |
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07-03-19 | Indians -154 v. Royals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND The Indians won last night's game 9-5. They're now eight games above .500 and would be a Wild Card team if the regular season ended today. They've won 7 of 10 overall and have the American League's best record since June 1st (18-9 overall). Kansas City is still last in the AL Central at 29-57 and they'll be a team firmly looking at the future after the All-Star Break. Last weekend saw Cleveland turn in some awful performances in Baltimore, so they won't be taking the Royals lightly. Starter Mike Clevinger is 6-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 10 previous appearances vs. KC. So this looks like a good matchup for him after the disastrous outing against the Orioles. Royals starter Duffy has not been successful in the past against Cleveland, going 2-10 with a 5.68 ERA. The Indians have won 8 of their last 10 games vs. lefties. The Royals have lost five of Duffy's last six starts and are just 2-6 their last eight games overall. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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07-03-19 | Liberty v. Storm OVER 152 | Top | 84-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER in New York-Seattle Seattle has been hit with a ton of adversity this year, from injuries to coach Dan Hughes being diagnosed with cancer. Initially, the reigning WNBA Champs were able to persevere, but now it looks as if everything is starting to catch up with them. They just lost at home for the first time all year as Phoenix beat them 69-67 on Sunday. With starters Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart (last year's MVP!) still out, as well as guard Jewell Lloyd, things may only continue to get worse before they get better. Defense has kept the Storm afloat, but don't be surprised to see them allowing more points moving forward. Today they host the Liberty, who come in averaging 79.2 points per contest. But if there is one silver lining for the Storm it's that the Liberty are also allowing a league-high 82.7 points per contest and that number jumps to 86.8 on the road. Play OVER New York-Seattle AAA |
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07-02-19 | Twins -114 v. A's | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MINNESOTA Oakland comes into this series feeling pretty good about itself. They have won five of six, including the last three of a four-game set with the Angels this past weekend. But Minnesota is invading here and they check off a lot of boxes when you're scanning today's card for a big play. First off, the Twins average 6.3 runs/game on the road. That's tops in all of baseball. They also sport the American League's best run differential at +113. (Yes, better than the Yankees). Jake Odorizzi is starting Tuesday and while he's slowed down a little, there have still been six times this year where he didn't allow any runs and three more where he allowed just one. It just so happens that Odorizzi's 1.29 career ERA in Oakland (three starts) is his lowest at any of the 30 MLB parks. Daniel Mengden may have pitched well from the A's in his return from the minors last week, but we're still not sold. The Twins have won 12 of Odorizzi's last 13 starts. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-02-19 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the UNDER While still technically "international," the Red Sox have to be thankful to be out of London where the runs kept coming in MLB's first ever series contested in Europe. They and the Yankees played two ridiculous games, one a 17-13 final that took nearly five hours to play nine innings. The dimensions of Olympic Stadium were way too favorable to the hitters and Boston took advantage by hitting six homers and scoring 28 runs in two games. But they still lost both! Canada should bring a sharp decline in scoring, not just on the Boston side, but the runs allowed side of the ledger as well. Toronto is hitting only .212 at home this season. That's the lowest team batting average at home in all of baseball. Being at home didn't stop the Jays from scoring 11 times in yesterday's win over the Royals, but tonight they are against arch nemesis David Price, who is 22-3 with a 2.37 ERA in 31 career starts vs. Toronto. Price is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA his last eight starts overall. He's allowed more than two runs only twice in his last 10 starts. Toronto's Thornton faced Boston on June 21st and held them to two runs in 6 1/3 innings. Play UNDER Boston-Toronto AAA |
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07-02-19 | Sky v. Aces -9 | Top | 82-90 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS With Seattle losing on Sunday, that means Las Vegas has moved into first place in the Western Conference. The Aces are 7-5 and just percentage points ahead of the Storm, who are eventually going to succumb to all the absences from their lineup. So LV is in a good spot right now. Something definitely worth mentioning here is that the Aces have been favored in all 12 games this season. Make it 13 here as they draw a Chicago team that has lost three straight, including a 25-point defeat out in LA on Sunday. Las Vegas needed OT to get by Indiana on Saturday, winning 102-97, and thus didn't cover as huge 13.5-point favorites. The Aces are now just 1-5 ATS their past six games. But the number isn't nearly as high as it should be for this tilt as LV has won six of eight overall and three in a row at home (straight up). Play on LAS VEGASÂ AAA |
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07-01-19 | Giants +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran +1.5 Both of these teams have excelled in one-run games this year with the Padres going 18-9 and Giants at 17-9. Those are actually the two best records in the league in one-run affairs, so both teams have to be a little upset with where they stand currently. We won't be upset if this is a one-run game though as either way it would be a win for us as we're playing the run line. San Diego had a four-game win streak stopped yesterday by St. Louis. San Francisco won its game Sunday, 10-4 over Arizona. While Padres starting pitcher Allen has accounted well for himself in his first two starts, we're not ready to put our money on him. Jeff Samardzija has an 8-3 career record vs. the Padres with some of the best starts coming here in Petco. He's held the Padres to a .197 batting average in nine previous outings here. San Diego doesn't score enough at home (just 3.9 runs/game) to be trusted to win by multiple runs here. The Giants could very well take this game outright considering they have won six of their last eight series openers. Play San Francisco +1.5 on the RUN LINE AAA |
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07-01-19 | Toronto +11 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ARGOS The Argos lost their opening game 64-14, so oddsmakers set the line high for this first away matchup, which takes place at Saskatchewan Moday. It's actually comes down some though, showing that most CFL bettors feel the 50-point loss to Hamilton was more "blip" than "trend." We're inclined to agree. While it's never good to lose by that many points, especially after getting a Week 1 bye, we expect Toronto to play a lot better this week. The Roughriders have also yet to taste victory this season, losing their first two games by a combined nine points. So they'll take a win any way they can get it and we don't see this turning into a blowout. Recall that the Riders are without their starting QB Zach Collaros. A repeat of last week's 41 point effort seems unlikely today as WR Emmanuel Arceneaux is still not ready to return from an ACL injury. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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07-01-19 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Kansas City comes into Monday afternoon's contest with a chance to earn themselves a four-game split here in Toronto. They won Sunday, 7-6, thanks to one big inning as they scored five times in the 3rd. Such a big inning is unlikely to occur again for a team that is unaccustomed to delivering significant offense on a consistent basis. As for Toronto, while they have scored five or more runs in every game in this series, they also have a .211 batting average at home this year. No team has a lower batting average at home and the next lowest team (Giants) are actually at .226. So expect the hitters to struggle in this Canada Day matinee. That's even though neither starter is anything special. But at times, Glenn Sparkman has been quite good for the Royals. Two starts ago, he held baseball's top offense (Minnesota) to one run in seven innings. Clayton Richard turned in a quality start his last time out, allowing just three runs (all solo home runs) to the Yankees. We anticipate this being a low-scoring affair as the Under is 10-3-2 the L15 times KC has played the fourth game of a series while Toronto is 6-2-1 Under in that same role. Play UNDER KC-TORONTO AAA |
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06-30-19 | Braves v. Mets -103 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS The Mets are wrapping up a three-game series with the Braves Sunday night. They'll send out Noah Syndergaard in the hopes of ending what is now a seven-game losing streak overall. The Mets have not won since 6.22 when they beat the Cubs as they've lost 6-2 and 5-4 to the Braves the previous two days. But having Syndergaard on the hill makes a large difference. While he didn't pitch well in his last start, he still has a 1.087 WHIP over his last seven. This is his return from the disabled list and it couldn't come at a better time for the Mets. They gave up back to back homers in the eighth yday to lose the game. It was Atlanta's 21st come from behind victory of the season. But we don't see them being able to pull another rabbit out of the hat tonight. Max Fried may have a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts, but his WHIP Is actually up during that time. Play on NY METS AAA |
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06-30-19 | Mercury v. Storm OVER 152 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Seattle leads the Western Conference with an 8-5 overall record and they are 5-0 at home. They are giving up the fewest points per game in the league too (72.1), helpful because they actually haven't been scoring that much. Their last result, a 79-76 win over Chicago, snapped a string of five straight Unders. Tonight they face the team they opened the season against, Phoenix. The Storm beat the Mercury back on May 25th, 77-68. We look for this to be a higher scoring affair. The total for the rematch is several points lower than the first go around, which makes sense. Seattle is without several key players, but keeps trudging along. The Over is 7-2-1 the past 10 meetings here in Seattle. Phoenix is off a win in which it scoring 91 points. They are 8-3 Over off a straight up win. Play OVER Phoenix-Seattle AAA |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers -156 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LA DODGERS This Dodgers-Rockies has not been short on runs as the two teams have combined for 50 runs in three games. Now yesterday's game was a lot less low scoring than the first two as Colorado won 5-3. But the more curious thing to transpire is that after losing the first seven head to head meetings of the year, the Rockies have now won two straight. We look for LA to reassert its dominance Sunday behind Kenta Maeda, who just held Colorado to two runs over seven innings in his previous start. Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA in his career when facing Colorado and has even fared well when pitching here at Coors, going 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in nine games. Chi-Chi Gonzales goes for Colorado and not only did he not work in the last series with the Dodgers, this will be his first ever time starting in the thin air of Denver. The Dodgers last lost three in a row back in mid-April. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-29-19 | Jussier Formiga v. Joseph Benavidez -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Joseph Benavidez This shapes up as a really strong play on Benavidez, who has beaten just about everyone of substance in the UFC's flyweight division, even current champion Henry Cejudo. He's also previously defeated his opponent for Saturday's UFC Fight Night, that being Jussier Formiga. It was almost six years ago when Benavidez delivered a 1st round TKO to Formiga. Maybe it won't come as quick in this rematch, but the end result will be the same and that's Benavidez getting his hand raised. Also notable is that that first fight took place in Formiga's native Brazil. He won't have that "home field advantage" here in Minneapolis. Benavidez, who has won eight of his past nine fights, is certainly the better striker here as well as the better wrestler. Look for Benavidez to win again and potentially move on to a rematch with Cejudo for the 125 lb title. Play on Joseph Benavidez AAA |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks -133 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARIZONA After winning Thursday's opener, Arizona fell last night to San Francisco by a score of 6-3. That was just only the third time in 11 matchups this year that the home team emerged victorious in this NL West rivarly. Such results may be irregular across baseball, but not to the Diamondbacks. They are just 17-22 at home and 25-20 on the road. Tonight they have a huge edge in starting pitching with Greinke facing Pomeranz. Greinke has a 3.08 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, the latter being one of the better numbers in the entire league. The WHIP gets even better on the road too as does the ERA. But perhaps the most important thing of all here is Greinke's career-long domination of the Giants as he's 12-3 w/ a 2.34 ERA in 19 career starts against them and has never lost here in San Francisco (5-0 with 1.37 ERA). Before last night, Arizona was unbeaten here in San Fran. Pomeranz is not having a good year as he's 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. He's never beaten Arizona, going 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 starts and the last time he faced them was a disaster as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings before giving up five runs and eight hits in what ended up being an 18-2 loss for the Giants. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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06-29-19 | Twins -150 v. White Sox | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MINNESOTA Minnesota should make short work of the White Sox today in what shapes up to be a complete mismatch. The Twins did lose last night's game 6-4, so they're out for revenge here against a team they'd previously swept at Target Field, back at the end of May. The Twins continue to lead the AL Central by a wide margin and are 13 games in front of the White Sox. A major reason for the Twins' surprising amount of success this season is that they are getting unreal offensive production on the road. They average 6.3 runs/game as the visitors, which is the highest average in all of baseball. The rotation has also been much better than anticipated. Michael Pineda may be off a bit of a rough outing, but that was the first time since April he'd allowed more than three earned runs. Chicago's Ivan Nova has been terrible at home this year, going 0-3 in six starts with an 8.79 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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06-28-19 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-28-19 | Phillies -135 v. Marlins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies just completed a four-game sweep of the Mets, an extraordinarily fortunate result given that they had to come from behind to win every time. They'll take it though, considering the series before that saw them get swept at home by Miami. They go for revenge Friday against the Marlins, who were just swept by Washington. So the vibe is much different this time around as the NL East rivals get ready to play three game here on South Beach. The Marlins are still a last place team mind you and they've never hit Friday's starter for the Phillies, Vincent Velasquez, well. That includes last weekend's series when they got just one hit off him in five innings. Velasquez has a 2.90 ERA in 12 previous starts vs. the Marlins and the two times he's faced them this year have seen him allow only two runs and three hits in 11 innings. The Phillies obviously didn't win the last one as they were swept in the series, but don't blame Velasquez on that one. He'll again be opposed by Hernandez for Miami, who has yet to record a winning decision in seven career tries as a starter. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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06-28-19 | Indians -170 v. Orioles | Top | 0-13 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND The Indians have quite the favorable schedule between now and the All Star Break. Having just wrapped up a successful 5-1 homestand against the Tigers and Royals, their next six games come against the Orioles and Royals. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball as they have won only 22 games and been outscored by almost 200 runs. Pitching for them tonight will be John Means. While Means has been their top starter, he alone cannot erase just how bad his team is. The price is still relatively high on the Indians tonight, but not as high as it should be considering how they've played of late. Earlier this year, they took three of four from the Orioles, outscoring them 29-13. Though Mike Clevinger's return from the disabled list didn't go all that well last week (gave up 5 runs), he still has a 2.70 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in three starts this year. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-27-19 | Dodgers -196 v. Rockies | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on LA Safe to say, LA has handled its business with Colorado this season. The Dodgers are a perfect 6-0 against the Rockies including a sweep just last week. It would definitely appear as if they're very likely to make it 7-0. The oddsmakers have them as huge favorites at Coors Field Thursday and we are inclined to agree. Not only do you have the head to head domination, but there's a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup that's in the Dodgers favor. Walker Buehler is 8-1 in his 15 starts, possessing great numbers, and they just continue to get better. In six of the last seven starts, Buehler has allowed 2 earned runs or less. His last start was a complete game effort and he didn't allow any runs in the two starts before that. Colorado's Peter Lambert has really struggled since a successful pro debut. He's got an 8.31 ERA and 1.692 WHIP since then, though a large part of that is one bad start. After winning six in a row, the Dodgers just dropped two of three to Arizona. They'll be motivated to take this series opener. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -175 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee lost again last night and must win here today to avoid a sweep. Getting swept by the last place Mariners would definitely be a "bad look" for a team that's already lost 9 of 13. It's not like Seattle came in playing tremendous baseball either. Since starting the season at 13-2, the M's record is 24-45. The Brewers should have their chances this afternoon facing Mike Leake, who just gave up eight runs in his last start. Another edge the home team has is that they are 19-10 in day games. We'll admit that Chase Anderson hasn't exactly pitched great of late for Milwaukee, but he has a 5-0 team start record the last five times he's pitched the third game of a series. Seattle has lost the last seven times Leake has started on five or more days rest. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-26-19 | Nationals -144 v. Marlins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON Washington beat Miami yesterday 6-1, thanks to a dominant effort from Max Scherzer. They've now won six of eight and we project another strong outing today, this time from Patrick Corbin. The Marlins are the lowest scoring team in the National League right now. Before losing Tuesday, they had won four straight and swept the Phillies over the weekend. But they are still only averaging 3.1 runs/game at home and that simply will not cut it. Miami is 3-14 this year as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Corbin was outstanding in his last start, giving up just one run in seven innings. He also threw a complete game shutout at Miami's expense last month. Zac Gallen is still too unproven to trust in this spot for the Marlins. He was pretty good in his debut last weekend vs. St. Louis, but only lasted five innings. Washington is a team to keep an eye on right now. Play WASHINGTON AAA |
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06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran RUN LINE (+1.5) The Giants evened up this series with a 4-2 win yesterday, getting a strong outing from Madison Bumgarner. It's been a low scoring series so far and armed with an extra run and a half in their pocket, I think the home team is the right call here. The last time Jeff Samardzija faced the Rockies, he shut them out for seven innings and the Giants won that game 1-0. Now the last time German Marquez (today's starter for Colorado) faced the Giants, he shut them out as well (it was the same series). But Colorado just isn't as potent at the plate when they're on the road and we don't see them scoring too many runs in this game. Then there is the matter that they are 5-14 the L19 times they've been off a game where they score two runs or fewer. They are also only 6-15 the L21 games at San Francisco, including 1-4 when Marquez is on the mound. Play SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-26-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -167 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Boston Run Line (-1.5) This should be a very easy win for Boston, so we're not hesitating to lay the -1.5, even at the unusually high price. The Red Sox have taken the first two games, 6-5 and 6-3, and now send out Chris Sale to finish the sweep. While one of the two prior wins did come by just one run, this should be the most lopsided game of the series. The last time Sale faced his former team, he shut them out for six innings in what ended up being a 6-1 Boston victory. It takes a heck of a pitching effort to beat Sale and quite frankly we don't think Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez is up to the challenge. He comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the kind of numbers you never see from Sale. Also, in addition to being 1-5 vs. the Red Sox this season, the White Sox are just 12-23 in day games. Sale has 106 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, a span of 65 1/3 innings. Chicago lost Tim Anderson to a sprained ankle in yesterday's game and he'd been one of the team's top hitters. No chance for the White Sox in this one. Play on BOSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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06-25-19 | Storm v. Aces OVER 156.5 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Seattle is 2-0 since coach Dan Hughes returned from cancer treatment. A third straight win here would be a season best streak. Las Vegas is the closest team to the first place Storm in the West, just two back in the win column. The Aces get to play host Tuesday night for what we figure will be a pretty high scoring affair. LV was a part of our *10* Total of the Week play on Thursday, which came through with flying colors as they allowed Washington to score 95 points in an ugly loss. They have since bounce back to defeat Dallas 86-68. The Aces trail only the Mystics in points per game. They've scored at least 80 in six of their nine games. Seattle games have been lower scoring on average as they've held the last two opponents to an average of 61.5 points/game. But those were also home games. The Storm have allowed at least 71 points the last five times they've played on the road (81, 71, 82, 78, 83). So look for them to give up the most points since Hughes' return. Play OVER Seattle-Las Vegas AAA |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS After failing to sweep the Angels Sunday night, St. Louis gets a crack at another AL West foe here as Oakland comes to own. It's been awhile since the A's had to play on the road as their last 10 games all were played at home. They went 6-4 on the homestand after splitting four games with Tampa Bay over the weekend. If it seems like a number of Cardinals pitchers have been sharper at home, well, that's because they are. Jack Flaherty has a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his eight Busch Stadium starts. That gives him a big leg up on Bassitt for Oakland. Bassitt had a 5.88 ERA in his five starts previous to the last one. That last start came against Baltimore, so a bit of an asterisk there. Bottom line is Flaherty and St. Louis are better at home than Bassitt and Oakand are out on the road. The A's have lost 4 of Bassitt's last five interleague starts while the Cardinals are 8-2 their last 10 IL games vs. a right-handed starter. Play ST. LOUIS AAA |
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06-25-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -163 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -163 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee had gone cold prior to winning Saturday and Sunday over Cincinnati. Before that, they'd dropped five straight and seven of eight. We look for them to continue the resurgence here vs. Seattle. Despite playing Baltimore and Kansas City, the two worst teams in the AL, the Mariners only went 4-3 on the recently completed homestand. The Brewers Zach Davies hasn't lost at home, going 4-0 in six starts. He'll be opposed by Marco Gonzales, who is unbeaten his last three starts. So something will have to give. Again, the Brewers look to be the correct call. Seattle is 0-4 vs. the National League this season.They continue to give up runs in bunches too. No team has given up more this season. They did win 13-3 Sunday (over Baltimore) but are 3-14 off their last 17 wins. Play on Milwaukee. AAA |
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06-25-19 | Mets v. Phillies -142 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies beat the Mets Monday, quite easily in fact, as the final score was 13-7. It was a much needed win as they'd lost each of their previous six games and had been swept here at home by last place Miami over the weekend. The 13 runs they scored yesterday nearly matched the entire offensive output during that six-game slide (scored only 14 runs). We like them to make it two in a row at the Mets' expense this evening. Considering how Mets starter Walker Lockett pitched in his first big league start, it should be another big day at the plate for Philly. Lockett lasted only 2 1/3 innings last week in Chicago and gave up five runs. The Mets have lost six of nine and are a team we've been targeting (as a fade) quite frequently of late. Phillies starter Jake Arrieta should have his way with them as he's off back to back quality starts for the first time this season. The Mets are just 2-7 this year after allowing 10 or more runs in the previous game. Quite frankly, that's a lot times to be allowing 10 or more runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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06-24-19 | Rockies -128 v. Giants | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on COLORADO Colorado heads to San Francisco for the opener of a three-game set. Monday's game is on ESPN, a rare chance for these NL West teams to play in front of a national TV audience. We look for the Rockies to make the most of the opportunity as the Giants simply aren't very good. We played against them yesterday, noting many of their deficiencies, and they lost 3-2 in extra innings. They don't score a ton (only two teams have scored fewer runs) and today's starter (Drew Pomeranz) has allowed five or more runs four times in his last seven starts, including the last one when he gave up three home runs to the Dodgers. It's a 10.58 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in those last seven starts overall. The Rockies go with Jon Gray, who allowed just two runs in his most recent start. That was a win over Zack Greinke in Arizona. Certainly then, Gray is capable of pitching his team to a win over Pomeranz and the Giants. Play COLORADO AAA |
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06-24-19 | Braves v. Cubs -120 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs are playing with revenge here as the Braves swept them back in early April. That was a long time ago obviously, though the Braves have actually never been hotter than they are right now. Wins Saturday and Sunday brings them to an impressive 16-5 overall in June and they have opened up a pretty big lead (6.5 games) in the National League East. But Chicago is also a division leader (Central) and has a better run differential than Atlanta. They are also the home team for this series, which is a big deal because they've gone 27-14 at Wrigley so far this year, 14-5 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Has Jon Lester pitched all that well recently? Not really, but he is 6-2 lifetime against the Braves with a 2.95 ERA. Julio Teheran had been pitching well for Atlanta recently, but that was before he got beat up by the Mets last week, giving up six runs in four innings. Play CHICAGO AAA |
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06-24-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -166 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON Though the White Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound today, the Red Sox still are the better team and that's ultimately what will matter tonight. Boston won't be lacking for motivation. They lost two of the three games in their last series and that was to a bad Toronto team. Still they are 8-3 the last 11 games overall and 31-20 their last 51 games. It's surprising that Chicago is hovering around .500 (they lost 100 games in 2018), but they haven't been as competitive as you might think. They've lost two straight as well as five of seven and not one time during that stretch have they scored more than five runs in a game. Giolito is off his worst start of the season as he gave up six runs. Boston is going with Rodriguez, who has the best team start record on the staff at 11-4. Play BOSTON AAA |
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06-23-19 | Angels v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS St. Louis is look to sweep here and we'll gladly take them at what appears to be a severely undervalued price. The Angels just haven't been able to muster much offense in the first two games. They've scored only three runs. Both of yesterday's came on solo home runs. Miles Mikolas is a lot better at home than he is on the road for the Cardinals with a 2.55 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at Busch Stadium. Tyler Skaggs has a 5.27 ERA on the road for the Angels. The Cardinals have been pretty strong at home overall, going 24-15. The Angels have not done well in the spot they are in right now as they've gone 3-13 the last 16 times they dropped the first two games of a series. They've also dropped 39 of their last 53 on the road to teams that have winning records. St. Louis has won 16 of the last 21 Mikolas starts against teams that have losing records. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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06-23-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA Arizona is facing the prospect of getting swept at home by a division rival for a second straight series. It was Colorado earlier in the week, now San Francisco has come to Chase Field and delivered back to back wins (11-5 Friday and 7-4 Saturday). The Diamondbacks losing streak has now hit six straight overall and they're now just 14-21 at home for the year. There's only a handful of teams with worse home records and all of them are buried at the bottom of the standings. So it doesn't make much sense to see Arizona struggling that much here. We think they bounce back today behind Merrill Kelly, who had really been delivering for them of late (prior to his last outing). Kelly's first three starts in June saw him go a total of 22 1/3 innings and he allowed just two runs on 12 hits. So you can write off Tuesday's subpar effort against Colorado, we think. The Giants are just 12-19 in day games this year while Shaun Anderson is not someone we'd really consider putting our money on right now. The biggest difference maker in the series so far has been recent call-up Alex Dickerson and we don't see that continuing either. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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06-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee We had Milwaukee on Saturday and they were able to win a back and forth game over the Reds, 6-5, thereby snapping a five-game losing streak. The win also ended Cincinnati's six-game win streak. Including Yasmani Grandal's first career leadoff home run, the two teams combined for seven runs in the first inning alone yesterday afternoon. From there, the scoring did slow down considerably, but look for it to pick back up again for this final game of the series. Brandon Woodruff may have a 12-3 team start record for the Brewers, but you wouldn't know it by the way he's pitched lately. In his last four starts, he's surrendered 16 runs in 23 innings. Cincy's DeSclafani has much better recent numbers, but over the course of the season he hasn't been anything special. The Over is 5-0 his last five Sunday starts. This should be a high-scoring affair. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee AAA |
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06-22-19 | White Sox v. Rangers -188 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on TEXAS We may have lost with the Rangers Friday night, but expect them to bounce back in a major way tonight against the White Sox. They (the Rangers) let an early 2-0 lead slip away last night, eventually losing 5-4 in 10 innings. But it shouldn't be any problem putting away their visitors this evening. It starts with the pitching matchup where Lance Lynn takes on Omar Despaigne. Despaigne has been terrible for the White Sox as he's given up 10 runs and 16 hits in his two starts. Lynn has made eight straight quality starts for the Rangers, the latest coming Monday against Cleveland where he had nine strikeouts and allowed only one run in seven innings. Lynn's ERA is 2.92 during the eight straight quality efforts. Texas is 8-2 the last 10 times it has been off a loss. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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06-22-19 | Orioles v. Mariners -175 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -175 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Seattle was set to be our 10* MLB Game of the Week LAST night, but a pitching change (by Baltimore) negated that. It's too bad as the Mariners ended up winning a wild one, 10-9, doing almost all of their scoring early. The Orioles are no better today than they were yesterday. In fact, they're obviously now a game worse in the standings. Their win percentage (.276) and run differential (-175) are both baseball's worst, which was also the case in 2018. They've now lost 10 in a row after dropping the first two games of this series. The Orioles actually have a winning record when Andrew Cashner is on the mound. But how long will that last? Saturday's starter doesn't have good numbers (ERA or WHIP) on the season. The Mariners will start Tommy Milone, who has made three decent starts thus far. He's allowed just five runs on 10 hits and has a 2.23 ERA in six previous games vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are just 2-12 their last 14 games in Seattle. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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06-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Milwaukee The Reds have played shockingly well of late. They've won six straight games, the last two of which have come here in Milwaukee. That also has the Brewers on a five-game losing streak and at the rate these teams are going Cincy may very well pass Milwaukee in the NL Central. But we think the Brewers "stop the bleeding" today. Now, only quickly glancing at the numbers, you may not think Jhoulys Chacin is the right starter for the job here. But Chacin has pitched relatively well at Miller Park this year and holds a win over the Reds. Luis Castillo, on the other hand, does have pretty sterling numbers for the Reds. But he has an 0-2 team start record vs. Milwaukee this season and one of those losses happened to be his poorest outing of the year! Even after losing the first two games of this series, the Brewers are still 39-19 their last 58 home games vs. teams with a winning record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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06-21-19 | White Sox v. Rangers -138 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS Texas is our new 10* for today ("replacing" Seattle) as they host the struggling White Sox in the opener of a three-game set. The Rangers won yesterday, 4-2 over the Indians, as they remain a surprise player in the AL Wild Card race. Chicago should not be considered a postseason player, despite being within reach of .500 (currently two games under) as they've been outscored by 59 runs this season. The White Sox did have Thursday off, but that's not going to matter with Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. Lopez has a poor 6.75 ERA his past three starts and has really struggled for much of 2019. He has won only one of his previous six starts. The Rangers will turn to Ariel Jurado, who is off a rough outing in Cincinnati, but he should bounce back from that tonight. Jurado had made four straight quality starts before going to Cincy and the White Sox aren't exactly a premier offensive team. Texas is, as they average 5.6 runs/game, second most overall. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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06-21-19 | Tigers v. Indians -190 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND Cleveland just swept the Tigers last weekend and that was in Detroit. Now they welcome this struggling division rival to Progressive Field and it's difficult to imagine this series going much differently. The Tigers are just plain bad. They were idle yesterday so that Miami passed them in runs scored for the season. That means Detroit has scored the fewest runs in all of baseball, leading to them being outscored by 132 runs this year. Cleveland is 5-1 vs. Detroit in 2019 and 31-13 against them since the start of 2017. The Tigers have just one win in the last six games overall. While the Indians did lose yesterday afternoon, that came after back to back 10-run efforts in Texas (won both games). Trevor Bauer is pitching for Cleveland tonight and when he faced Detroit last weekend he went the distance, allowing only four hits. It was his second straight strong start. Matthew Boyd goes for the Tigers. He's won just one of his past seven starts and lasted only 4 innings in his last one. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-21-19 | Mets v. Cubs -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the CUBS The Cubs were the right call last night, so why not come right back with them again on Friday? They hammered the Mets 7-4 in the series opener, making the most of their seven hits (same number that NY finished with). It was the sixth straight time the Mets lost a series opener and they've now dropped 7 of 10 overall. We have played against them three times in the last four days and won every time. The price is again way too low here on the Cubs, who are 14-3 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175. Meanwhile, the Mets are 1-12 as road underdogs of +125 to +175. Despite not factoring into any decisions, Yu Darvish has pitched a lot better for the Cubs lately with a 0.818 WHIP his last three starts. He had a season-high 10 strikeouts in a very impressive performance last Sunday in which the Cubs beat the Dodgers 2-1. The Cubs are 7-1 vs. the Mets since the start of last season. Mets starter Jason Vargas had to leave his last start due to cramping, which is worrisome. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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06-20-19 | Mystics v. Aces OVER 164.5 | Top | 95-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Both teams enter this game on long Under streaks. Washington has gone Under in four straight games while Las Vegas has done them one better with a five-game streak. But look for those streaks to end tonight even as the total is in the same range as most of the teams' recent games. Washington doesn't have any trouble scoring, that's for sure. They put up 81 points in their last game, a 29-point win over Los Angeles, who shot just 29.9% from the field. It was easily the Mystics best defensive effort of the season and won't be repeated here. They are giving up 75 points/game while at the same time scoring 84.4 points/game. That's tied for the highest scoring average in the entire league ... with Las Vegas! The Aces have scored at least 80 in five of their seven games, including 100 in their most recent game at home. Washington also hit 100 in a game earlier this year and has scored at least 80 in five of their games as well. Play OVER Washington-Las Vegas AAA |
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06-20-19 | Twins -188 v. Royals | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -188 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA It's a battle of first place and last place in the AL Central and there's no reason to overthink this one. The division leading Twins enter this weekend series at Kauffman Stadium averaging a MLB-high 6.6 runs/game on the road. They'll also be looking to bounce back from their last series, which saw them drop two of three at home to the Red Sox. But right before that, they'd taken two of three at home from these same Royals. Kansas City is not having a good year, which was expected. Only Baltimore has a lower win percentage. The Royals had actually won three in a row before losing last night in Seattle, but this is not a game or series likely to go their way. Tonight they have to face Jake Odorizzi, who has been one of the American League's top pitchers this year. Minnesota has won Odorizzi's last 11 starts with the last one coming against this very opponent. While Odorizzi wasn't at his best against the Royals last Saturday, allowing four runs, he should make them pay here for not taking advantage. In six of his previous eight starts, Odorizzi hadn't allowed a single run. Opposing him for a second time in less than week will be Glenn Sparkman. He allowed all five runs in that 5-4 loss to Odorizzi and the Twins last Saturday, lasting just five innings. Play on MINNESOTAÂ Â AAA |
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06-20-19 | Mets v. Cubs -130 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs and Mets start a series on Thursday and we believe the latter's woes are set to continue. Twice in the past three days we played against the Mets. Both times we won (on Atlanta), only laying off the middle game when they had Jacob deGrom pitching. There's no deGrom to help them today, only Walker Lockett, who will be making his first start as a Met. He's a fill-in for Noah Syndergaard, so that's a tremendous break for a Cubs team that hardly needed it. Lockett was winless in three starts last year for the Padres with an ERA of 9.60 in 15 innings. The Mets have lost six of nine overall and their last five series openers. The Cubs are back in a first place tie with the Brewers, so they don't dare blow this opportunity. Tyler Chatwood will be making only his second start of the season tonight for the Cubs, but the first saw him throw six shutout innings back on April 21st against Arizona. He's been working in a long relief role, so it's not like he's unaccustomed to going long. The Cubs have won the last five times Chatwood has started at Wrigley Field. Play on CHICAGOÂ AAA |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 44 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Saskatchewan and Ottawa experienced very different starts to their respective seasons. The Rough Riders lost 23-17 out in Hamilton while Ottawa pulled a nice upset of Calgary in a Grey Cup rematch. The Redblacks were nine-point underdogs in their 32-23 win over the Stampeders, a very impressive way to begin 2019. It was a bit of a wild game as there were seven total turnovers. Four were interceptions from Dominique Davis, the first time starter at QB for Ottawa. But Davis also scored the go-ahead TD with just over a minute left for the win. We think the Redblacks will again find plenty of ways to score this week against a Saskatchewan team that is hurting - literally. QB Zach Collaros was just placed on the six-week injury list, a big blow to start the season. But no matter who ends up starting this week - either Cody Fajardo or Isaac Harker - will likely perform better than in Week 1 when they were each called into surprise duty (Fajardo also left wiith an injury). The Over is 6-2 the last 8 times these teams have played. With the number dropping so much (Riders QB situation), there's now plenty of value in playing this game that way. Play OVER Saskatchewan-Ottawa AAA |
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06-20-19 | Indians -124 v. Rangers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND It's probably too early to start talking Wild Card, but this shaped up to be a pretty important series for Cleveland as they came in trailing Texas in that race by half a game. The Indians lost Monday's opener, 7-2, but have stormed back to take the last two games while scoring 20 runs in the process. Thus it is now them with a half game lead over the Rangers, although Boston has now passed both. For this afternoon, Cleveland sends out Shane Bieber who has won his last four decisions. He is sixth in the AL in strikeouts and has had 10 or more three times in the past six starts. He had 12 over the weekend in a 4-2 win over Detroit. Mike Minor of Texas has the fifth lowest ERA (2.63) in the American League, but we're not sure if we're buying him to be successful over the long-term. His success this year has been quite surprising and before winning at Cincinnati last weekend, he'd been without a victory since May 20th. His last four wins all have been against teams that were in last place at the time. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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06-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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