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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 58.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday. Coming off a 64-point explosion against the Argos last week, the Ti-Cats enter this game with some serious momentum. Keep in mind, that was a complete collapse from the Argos. In Hamilton's first game this season it scored just one offensive touchdown in a relatively low-scoring 23-17 win over Saskatchewan. We've only seen the Alouettes play one game - a 32-25 loss in Edmonton. In that game, Montreal scored a touchdown late in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was already out of hand in the fourth quarter. It wasn't a great defensive showing from the Als, but they did turn in a couple of solid stretches in the game, not allowing the Eskimos to score a touchdown until over midway through the second quarter and then giving up just a safety in the entire third quarter. I don't expect the Als offensive to thrive in this contest, noting that the Ti-Cats have allowed just three offensive touchdowns through their first two games. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just six earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 16 2/3 innings. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in all six career starts against the Indians. Trevor Bauer will counter for Cleveland. He's coming off a miserable outing against the Tigers but I like the bounce-back spot here, noting he had worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts prior to that, including allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. The last time he faced the Royals he gave up just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -124 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're looking a short price here largely due to the Phillies seven-game slide, which included a series sweep at home against the lowly Marlins over the weekend. I do expect the Phils to snap out of the funk here as they host another struggling team in the Mets. New York has been a train wreck on and off the field with tensions boiling over to the clubhouse after Sunday's meltdown against the Cubs. Here, I'll give the edge to the Phillies with Zach Eflin taking the mound against Steven Matz. Matz owns an ERA north of six on the road while Eflin is coming off a string of quality starts. Eflin's losing record doesn't tell the entire story as he owns a rock solid 2.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP not to mention a 73:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -4 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over B.C. at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mike Reilly era in B.C. got off to a tough start last week as the Lions fell by a 33-23 score at home against the Blue Bombers (we won with Winnipeg in that game). While most expect the Lions to bounce back here with Reilly facing his former team, the line tells a different story with the Eskimos favored. I believe the oddsmakers have got it right as Edmonton looks to make it two in a row at home to open the season. I really think that the Eskimos are a bit of an overlooked commodity at this point. QB Trevor Harris always seems to carry a big chip on his shoulder and got his campaign off to a tremendous start last week, throwing for 447 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for the game-winning touchdown. Keep in mind, it wasn't until the third quarter that the Lions actually scored an offensive touchdown last week against Winnipeg. That proved to be their only offensive touchdown of the game. There are going to be some kinks to work out as Reilly learns the B.C. offense (he threw a pair of interceptions last week). The Eskimos gave up only one touchdown in the first three quarters of last week's game against the Alouettes. While they'll be facing a much tougher challenge here, I'm confident they'll be up for it. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 45 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -124 | 61 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Bettors are lining up to back the 'under' in the CFL Week 2 opener but that doesn't mean it's the wrong play. We won with the 'under' in the Roughriders season-opening loss in Hamilton and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The Riders scored a touchdown just over three minutes into the game against the Ti-Cats last week, and added a rushing touchdown late in the first half. However, from there they could only muster a fourth quarter field goal and rouge, ultimately putting up just 17 points in the loss. Things don't figure to get much better as they stay on the road to face the Redblacks on Thursday. On a positive note, the Riders did hold a pretty good Ti-Cats offense to only one offensive touchdown in the loss (they also gave up a punt return TD). Ottawa was involved in a wild game in Calgary last week, putting up a whopping 32 points against a good Calgary defense. I expect the scoring to settle down here, however. Note that the Redblacks didn't find the end zone between 3:57 of the second quarter and 1:15 of the fourth quarter in that game. All of their touchdowns came by way of QB Dominique Davis runs. There's no question the Riders will look to take that away here. Despite allowing 28 points, the Redblacks actually limited the vaunted Stampeders offense to only one touchdown in the win. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 49 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 70 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way the total sets up in the opening game of the 2019 CFL season. The Roughriders welcome back oft-injured QB Zach Collaros but with a re-tooled running game and a banged-up receiving corps, I don't have high hopes for the Riders offense - at least not early in the season, and especially not against a solid Tiger-Cats defense that welcomes back plenty of talent. Saskatchewan's defense might have to carry the load early on this season and I believe this unit is being underrated. Don't sleep on the presence of NFL veteran punter, and Saskatchewan-native, Jon Ryan who is still capable of flipping the field. The Ti-Cats are brimming with talent on both sides of the football, with their offense gaining much of the attention. Don't count on them displaying mid-season form here in Week 1, however. QB Jeremiah Masoli turned in an up-and-down half of football in the Ti-Cats preseason finale against the Argos last week. The Hamilton secondary should be especially motivated for this one after a poor showing in that loss to Toronto. The Ti-Cats have the potential to have one of the best defenses in the CFL this season and I look for them to get off to a strong start with a favorable matchup here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-19 | Padres -141 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -141 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. I like the Padres with Joey Lucchesi taking the ball against Shaun Anderson on Wednesday night. While Lucchesi has posted an ugly ERA north of six and gone winless on the road this season, the Padres have actually won his last two starts away from home, and he should be highly-motivated here after getting torched for seven earned runs the last time he faced the Giants. Keep in mind, in his first start against San Francisco this season, Lucchesi was sharp, giving up just three hits over 5 1/3 shutout innings in a 4-1 win. We're dealing with a pretty small sample size as far as rookie Shaun Anderson goes for the Giants. He's been good but not great, and checks in winless in three home starts. The Padres didn't carry great form into this series but neither did the Giants. I do consider San Diego to be the superior club in this matchup and I'm willing to lay the chalk to back it on Wednesday night. Take San Diego (10*). |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Toronto at 9:07 pm et on Friday. Everyone is quick to hand this series to the Raptors following their dominant victory in Game 3 in Oakland on Wednesday night. While we did win with the Raptors in that game (and the Warriors in Game 2), I'm not about to consider this series over and done with. The Warriors are a veteran team with a championship pedigree and I fully expect to see them bounce back and deliver their best effort of the series on Friday night. Of course Golden State knows that it needs to get a win here as earning a victory in Toronto in Game 5 will be a tall task. The Warriors got nothing from anyone not named Steph Curry in Game 3, with Shaun Livingston (in place of Klay Thompson) and DeMarcus Cousins really disappointing with a combined 2-for-11 shooting effort. There's a good chance Thompson will be back for this one, but even if he's not, I still expect a lot more from Golden State across the board. The Raptors aren't going to shoot the lights out again, nor do I expect them to convert at such a high rate from the free throw line again (20-of-21 in Game 3). This is a game the Warriors need, and when you consider the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 9-0 against the spread in the Raptors last nine contests, I'll lay the points with Golden State here. Take Golden State (10*). |
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06-03-19 | Bruins v. Blues -105 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Boston at 8:08 pm et on Monday. We won with the Bruins in Game 1, the Blues in Game 2 and the Bruins again in Game 3. Now I expect the zig-zag pattern to continue as the Blues bounce back in what amounts to a must-win game on Monday night in St. Louis. The Blues have faced plenty of adversity this season and throughout the playoffs. There's no reason to expect they'll roll over after Saturday's ugly 7-2 loss. Instead I look for them to respond with one of their best efforts of the playoffs on Monday night. Much like we saw Boston's top line respond with a big game on Saturday, I look for the Blues top unit to do the same here. Vlad Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz in particular were virtually invisible on Saturday. They lead the way in victory on Monday. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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05-29-19 | Blues +150 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 150 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Boston at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bruins in Game 1 of this series on Monday night but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Blues to even things up in Game 2 on Wednesday. St. Louis obviously got off to a fine start in Game 1, jumping ahead 2-0 before the Bruins got back in the game and ultimately took full control. The Blues know they can hang with the Bruins, you could argue that if a couple of bounces went their way in the second period on Monday they would have ended up stealing the game. St. Louis has clearly faced plenty of adversity this season and I don't expect to see it back down from the challenge that now lies ahead. Behind a strong bounce-back performance from Jordan Binnington between the pipes, look for the Blues to get back at the B's on Wednesday night. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Toronto at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Jumping out to a big early lead might have been part of the gameplan, but it certainly didn't work out in the Bucks favor on Thursday night as they let the Raptors back into the game and then Toronto took full control thanks to an all-world performance from Kawhi Leonard in the fourth quarter. While the Raptors bandwagon has filled up in a hurry, I'm not sure that's the right move from a betting perspective as the scene shifts back to Toronto on Saturday. Yes, the Raptors fan base is extremely hungry to watch their team finally break through and advance to the NBA Finals and the place will most definitely be 'rocking' on Saturday night. That doesn't guarantee a win, however. The Bucks clearly felt the pressure once things tightened up in Game 5 and I expect the same thing to happen to the Raptors with the weight of seemingly the entire city on their shoulders on Saturday. Going into this series I would have been shocked if you told me that the Bucks wouldn't win a game in Toronto. This is a team that has proven it can win on this floor this season, and one that has proven it can rise to the occasion in hostile environments. This had the feel of a series that was going to go the distance after Game 4 but that sentiment has changed with the Raptors stealing Game 5 on the road. Keep in mind, the Bucks were favored in the last game played on this floor. I'll grab the points with Milwaukee as its season hangs in the balance. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 220 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 102 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Monday. We've already cashed with the 'under' twice in this series, including in Game 3 on Saturday night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Monday, however, as the Warriors look to close out the Blazers and advance to the NBA Finals once again. We saw 209 total points in Game 3 despite the fact that the second half featured just 90 total points. That's not to mention the fact that the Warriors got just one three-pointer made from Klay Thompson and only two points from Andre Iguodala. In fact, the Warriors made only eight three-pointers as a team. Meanwhile, the Blazers saw Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum miss a combined 14 three-point shots and seven free throws. As expected, Seth Curry fell back to Earth, scoring just five points including one made three-pointer. I do expect Curry and the rest of the Blazers bench to perform much better on Monday night. This really is a bounce-back game in all aspects offensively for both teams. Even when the Warriors have had off nights, the Blazers still really haven't had any answers defensively. Meanwhile, for Portland this really is it. I at least expect to see it go down swinging, noting that the Blazers average north of 117 points per game at home this season. Remember, we did see a meeting total 236 points on this floor back in February with the Blazers pouring in 129 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers rolled behind a strong performance from Rich Hill last night. I'm not sure that we'll see Walker Buehler give them the same type of performance on Saturday, however. Buehler's four road starts this season have averaged north of 13 total runs. In 20 innings of work away from home he's been tagged for 12 earned runs. While Buehler has pitched well in two career starts against the Reds, he has never pitched at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, where the Reds average just short of five runs per game this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. After a tremendous first start against the Dodgers last season, he struggled when facing them earlier this year, giving up 11 hits and four earned runs over six innings. Los Angeles has been extremely consistent at the plate, scoring at least five runs in nine of its last 12 games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. We were very fortunate to win with the Bucks thanks to a game-ending 10-0 run in Game 1 of this series. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as I expect both teams to get offensive production from more sources than we saw in the opener. Toronto went silent offensively in the closing minutes of Game 1 and we're talking about a Raptors squad that generally closes well. Don't count on the Raps getting a combined miserable shooting performance of 3-for-16 from Marc Gasol and Danny Green again. I'm also confident Toronto will get to the free throw line more than the 20 times we saw in Game 1. On the flip side, the Bucks will be better as well after Eric Bledsoe shot 3-of-12 from the field including 0-for-6 from beyond the arc. George Hill didn't score a single point off the bench. I could go on. The fact is, we're in for a higher-scoring game on Friday night as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, these two teams combined to score 233 and 239 points in a couple of regular season meetings. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-19 | Blues +110 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Dallas at 3:08 pm et on Sunday. I'll gladly back the Blues at a plus-money return as they aim to stave off elimination at the hands of the Stars in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. This has had all the makings of a seven-game series from the get-go and I'm not about to waver from that, even with St. Louis facing elimination in enemy territory on Sunday. There's been very little separating these two teams in this series The difference makers have been Ben Bishop's stellar play in goal for the Stars and the fact that Dallas' best players have been its best players - something that can't be said for the Blues. With that being said, I'm confident we'll see the Blues big guns step up here. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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05-01-19 | Islanders +108 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Carolina at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The Islanders are down 2-0 in this series but they're by no means out of it. Each of the first two games could have gone either way and I'm confident we'll see the Isles bounce back with a victory in Raleigh on Wednesday. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that the Canes stole back-to-back games in Brooklyn. After all, the road team has now gone an incredible 7-1 in the last eight meetings in this series with the Isles being the only team to notch a victory on home ice. New York has been an outstanding road team this season, going 26-14-3 on the highway. The building will certainly be rocking, but I look for the Isles to feed off that hostile energy and get back in this series. Take New York (10*). |
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05-01-19 | Cubs v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs offense certainly has the ability to bust out at the dish on any given night but consistency hasn't been their strong suit so far this season. On Wednesday, Chicago will hand the ball to Jon Lester. He has been terrific through four starts, giving up just five earned runs in 19 innings of work. He lasted only five innings in his most recent start, but needed only 79 pitches and gave up just one earned run. Lester hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last two starts against the Mariners but hasn't faced them since 2016. Marco Gonzalez is as underrated as they come for the Mariners. He comes in having worked at least into the sixth inning in all seven starts this season. Over his last two outings he has gone 14 innings and allowed just three earned runs. Gonzalez has been tagged for just one home run over his last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). |
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04-30-19 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in Game 1 of this series on Sunday afternoon but now I think we're seeing a major overreaction from the books as the total has dropped considerably in advance of Game 2 on Tuesday. The Celtics put up 112 points on Sunday despite getting to the free throw line only eight times, grabbing only three offensive rebounds and knocking down just 13 three-pointers. While they did shoot better than 54% from the field, I actually think there's still some room for improvement. As for the Bucks, they're the one-seed in the East for a reason. Their 35-9 home record is no fluke. They'll make the necessary adjustments and Giannis won't get locked down the way he did in the series opener. Keep in mind, this is a team that scored 119+ in all four games during their opening round sweep of the Pistons. They hung 120 points on the C's in a previous meeting this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Saturday night. Mike Minor will take the ball for the Rangers. He did allow four earned runs in his last start in Oakland, but for the most part, has been steady this season. Minor has worked at least six innings in four straight starts, allowing only six earned runs in 29 innings over that stretch. The 'under' has cashed in three of his last four outings as well. Mike Leake will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in four of five starts this season. Leake hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his last three outings. Also note that he has allowed two earned runs or less in five of six career starts against the Rangers. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike the Jazz-Rockets series which hasn't really come all that close to approaching the total in most games, this series has been different. The two games played in San Antonio actually reached 226 and 220 points, well north of the number we're dealing with tonight. Game 5 totaled only 198 points, but that was with the two teams making good on just 25 free throw attempts and the Spurs shooting 7-of-24 from beyond the arc, a number they should be able to improve on back at home with their season on the line. We've seen the total drop a couple of points from the closing number in Game 5 but I don't believe the move is warranted. In previous years I would look to play the 'under' with inflated totals later in series' but that is no longer the case. Take the over (10*). |
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04-23-19 | Golden Knights +102 v. Sharks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over San Jose at 10:08 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up for the Golden Knights. The Sharks will be looking to pull off an improbable comeback victory in this series and while they do have home ice on their side, it's not as if the Knights aren't capable of winning in this building. There's no reason for the Knights to push the panic button after dropping back-to-back games - after all, Game 6 could have gone either way, and probably should have gone Vegas' way as it outshot San Jose by a wide margin. At the time of writing, the Sharks are a short favorite here, and I simply don't believe the line is warranted as Vegas is the superior team, and has an excellent leadership group which starts at the top with head coach Gerard Gallant. Take Vegas (10*). |
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04-19-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Nationals. His overall numbers haven't been great this season, but I like the fact that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts, allowing five earned runs over 12 2/3 frames. He'll face a Marlins club that hasn't scored in their last two games and have played a grand total of three runs during their four-game skid. Caleb Smith will counter for Miami. Like Sanchez, he has also been working deep into ball games, lasting six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing only three earned runs on five hits. The Nats' have scored four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +7 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Houston at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. After watching the Warriors stunning collapse in Game 2 of their matchup with the Clippers on Sunday night many have come to the conclusion that they're ripe for the picking in these playoffs, and that same majority also believes that the Rockets will be the team to ultimately dethrone the perennial champs. That's a narrative I believe is in play here with most forgetting that the Rockets still have some work to do before that, even if the opener of this series was no contest. I'm confident we'll see Utah bounce back with a much better effort on Wednesday night in Houston. This isn't a Jazz squad that rolled over at the end of the regular season. Utah entered the playoffs with some positive vibes and having split four regular season matchups with the Rockets, including a win here on this floor, I don't believe they'll be intimidated by the 0-1 hole, or the fact that they dropped Game 1 in blowout fashion. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Jazz here. Take Utah (10*). |
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04-13-19 | Clippers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 104-121 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Clippers got steamrolled by the Warriors in a spot where many expected them to compete less than a week ago and now we’re dealing with an inflated pointspread as a result. Keep in mind, that was a competitive game until halftime, before the wheels came off for the Clips and the Warriors put up a 42-spot in the third quarter. From a high-level perspective, I don’t think a Western Conference title is going to come quite as easy for the Warriors as it has in years’ past. We’ve certainly seen chinks in the Dubs’ armor over the course of the season and to put it simply, they’ve been one of the worst ATS bets in the entire league. Conversely, few expected much out of the Clippers this season and while they stumbled down the stretch, there’s no question it has been a successful campaign, and I fully expect to see them play with a ‘nothing to lose’ mentality here in the opening round. I won’t call for an outright victory in Saturday’s series-opener, but I do look for the Clips to give the Warriors all they can handle in Oakland. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think we're dealing with an inflated total here, largely due to the terrific starts these two A.L. West clubs have gotten off to this season. Veteran Wade Miley will take the ball for Houston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season, needing only 87 and 95 pitches to get through those outings. Miley has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park since the start of last season, allowing just four home runs in 92 1/3 innings of work. Wade LeBlanc will counter for the Mariners. Like Miley, he has also worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts to open the season. LeBlanc faced the Astros four times last season, pitching poorly in his first two outings against them before settling in over his last two, giving up just three earned runs on six hits over 10 1/3 innings in those last two starts. We know both teams can put up runs in bunches, but I look for a more tightly-contested affair to open this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-19 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Great American Ballpark on Wednesday night. Trevor Richards will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been sharp through his first two starts this season, working six innings in each outing, needing only 81 and 97 pitches to get through. In those 12 innings of work he has allowed only nine hits and four earned runs. Oddly enough, the 'over' has gone 1-0-1 in his two starts. The last time Richards faced the Reds he tossed seven shutout innings last September. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He was brilliant in his first start this season, tossing six shutout innings, allowing five hits and no walks, on the road against the Pirates. The last time he faced the Marlins he tossed six solid innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and no walks. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Padres -116 v. Giants | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the Padres as they look to continue to beat up on the struggling Giants on Tuesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He hasn't really been stretched out in his first two starts, but has certainly pitched well, allowing just seven hits over 9 1/3 shutout innings. He hasn't needed to throw more than 94 pitches since August 29th last year. Derek Holland will counter for San Francisco. He had a nice bounce-back season last year, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and making 30 starts. However, the fact remains he's been a losing pitcher in each of the last three seasons, going 21-33 over that stretch. The Giants have dropped six of his last seven starts overall. Holland has allowed a home run in each of his first two outings this season, while also issuing six walks in just nine innings of work. Take San Diego (10*). |
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04-09-19 | Grizzlies v. Pistons -10 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Memphis at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Pistons on Tuesday night. Detroit is reeling right now, on the heels of four straight losses. Keep in mind, it has faced a tough schedule, with a home-and-home with the Pacers followed by a trip to Oklahoma City and a home game against Charlotte. Here, the Pistons catch a break hosting a beat up Grizzlies squad that is simply playing out the string, and fresh off an overtime loss to Dallas two nights ago. Despite dropping four straight games, the Pistons still rank in the top half of the league in terms of defensive rating over their last five contests. The Grizzlies on the other hand sit in the bottom-third of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over that same stretch. We're laying a generous helping of points here, but I believe the number is warranted. Take Detroit (10*). |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Texas Tech at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We cashed a ticket with Auburn in its near-miss against Virginia on Saturday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cavaliers as they take on Texas Tech with the National Championship hanging in the balance on Monday night. This is all about the redemption story for Virginia as it looks to come full circle after being eliminated at the hands of a 16-seed in the opening round of last year's tournament. While Texas Tech has gone on what many consider to be a 'Cinderella run' in this tournament, the fact is, the Red Raiders are a three-seed that haven't really exceeded expectations by that wide of a margin. They're deserving of being here and should be able to give Virginia a run. With that being said, I simply don't see Texas Tech having many advantages here, as Virginia will be more than happy to slug it out with the Red Raiders for 40 minutes. The Cavaliers defense has come up big time and time again in this tournament and I anticipate more of the same on Monday night. Take Virginia (10*). |
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04-06-19 | 76ers -9.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls are coming off a rare victory last time out, a narrow one-point win over the lowly Wizards. That was their first win in six games so there's no reason to start planning the parade. The 76ers have dropped three games in a row, both SU and ATS. I really feel Philadelphia can run Chicago right of of the gym tonight, noting that despite its recent struggles to find the win column, Philly ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five contests. The Sixers are also in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that stretch while the Bulls check in a miserable 28th. Both teams are banged up but Philadelphia is in better position to come up with a complete effort here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-05-19 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 129-112 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over San Antonio at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This may look like a gimme for the Spurs to 'get right' following an uneven stretch, but I believe they're in for a battle with the Wizards. San Antonio has won just three times in its last eight games and only one of those SU wins came ATS as well. Meanwhile, the Wizards returned home from what should be considered a successful 2-2 road trip only to lose to the Bulls (by a single point). They still check in 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Over their last five games, the Wiz rank seventh in the league in pace rating. They're just 20th in offensive rating over that same stretch, but keep in mind that's only one spot behind the Spurs. In terms of defensive rating, Washington is right around the middle of the league (at 16th) over its last five games while San Antonio sits 24th. The Wiz hung 119 points on the Spurs back in January, but still lost. Expect a competitive affair here. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-23-19 | Villanova +4 v. Purdue | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
NCAAB Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Purdue at 9 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the points with the Wildcats in a game I believe they can win outright. Villanova ultimately failed to cover for us in their tournament opener, settling for a push in a four-point win over St. Mary's. Watching that game I didn't feel that it was quite as close as the final score indicated, however. I'm not sure we've seen Villanova's best game yet, really going back to the start of the Big East Tournament, which it did win. Purdue won and covered, narrowly, against Old Dominion in its Thursday matchup. The Boilermakers are good, but not great, and I really don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Give me Jay Wright's defending national champion Wildcats over Matt Painter's Boilers on Saturday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -6 | Top | 105-111 | Push | 0 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over San Antonio at 8:05 pm et on Friday. With the Spurs having won nine of their last 10 games overall this one will be pegged as a showdown between two of the West's best teams on Friday night. Keep in mind, San Antonio has played eight of its last 10 contests at home. The Spurs are just 13-22 on the road this season, where they rank a miserable 28th in the league in defensive rating. The Rockets are coming off a tough overtime loss in Memphis two nights ago, but had gone a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS over their previous three games. This hasn't been a favorable matchup for the Spurs in Houston, with the Rockets winning their last three meetings on this floor by 15, 16 and 7 points. Take Houston (10*). |
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03-22-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Kansas State -4.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Cal-Irvine at 2 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Friday afternoon. Cal-Irvine has become a trendy upset pick here in round one of the NCAA Tournament, largely due to an injury to Dean Wade of Kansas State. The fact is, that Wade injury has essentially been common knowledge since before this line was released. In other words, it has already been factored into the pointspread, which I believe is simply too short. It's easy to forget that Kansas State went on a serious run in this tournament last year, winning three games before bowing out to Cinderella team Loyola-Chicago. Most of the players from that Wildcats squad are back this year and I believe they come in with a chip on their shoulder after bowing out of the Big 12 Tournament at the hands of Iowa State last weekend. The Wildcats have lost only three games since the start of February with two of those coming against Iowa State and the other against Kansas. Cal-Irvine hasn't lost since January 16th but has it really been tested? The Anteaters are without a doubt a formidable opponent but I like Kansas State to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -4 | Top | 57-61 | Push | 0 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Villanova minus the points over St. Mary's at 7:20 pm et on Thursday. The St. Mary's Gaels are coming off a high-profile upset win over Gonzaga to secure the WCC Tournament title last week. They clearly caught the Bulldogs looking ahead to a one-seed in this tournament, and also napping a bit after taking the two regular season matchups with relative ease. I like the way the well-coached Villanova Wildcats come into this game after gutting out a couple of tight wins to wrap up another Big East Tournament championship last weekend. Despite being a marked team as the defending national champions, the Wildcats have still managed to post a solid 20-14 ATS record this season. The last time these two schools met was the 2010 NCAA Tournament and we actually cashed with the Gaels in an outright underdog victory in that Round of 32 affair. That was a team led by Matthew Dellavedova, Omar Samhan and Mickey McConnell. The line here is similar, but I believe the gap is wider favoring the Wildcats. Villanova may not be poised to repeat as national champions, but I do expect it to advance on to the Round of 32 with a convincing victory on Thursday night. Take Villanova (10*). |
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03-17-19 | Bulls v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Kings in this spot. Sacramento has been reeling lately but has also faced a pretty brutal schedule. While I don't generally like to back teams returning home off a road trip on the opposite coast, I do believe we'll see the Kings bounce back here. Note that Sacramento ranks third in the league in pace rating over its last five games and should be able to punish an awful Bulls defense on Sunday. Chicago checks in 29th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. The Bulls are coming off a relatively close seven-point loss against the Clippers but that was only thanks to L.A. taking its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter (it was an 18-point game entering the fourth). Chicago is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games. The Kings have lost four of their last five SU but have still managed to go 3-1-1 ATS over that stretch. Also note that the Kings took the first meeting in this series this season by 19 points back in December. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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03-14-19 | UMKC v. Utah Valley -9 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah Valley minus the points over UMKC at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Utah Valley on Thursday night as it aims to march on in the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas. The Wolverines have been absolutely rolling since early January, with only two losses dating back to January 12th and both of those came against the top team in the conference, New Mexico State, which has gone 27-4 this season. It's worth noting that both of those games could have gone either way with the Aggies winning by five and seven points. UMKC closed out the regular season with a beatdown of Chicago State but that's nothing to brag about as the Cougars have only three wins to their credit this season. Prior to that, UMKC's last win came on February 16th. While both regular season meetings in this series went to Utah Valley, neither game was a real blowout. I feel that will help keep the Wolverines guard up here. Take Utah Valley (10*). |
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03-14-19 | Cavs +8 v. Magic | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Magic were one of the hottest teams in the league a short time ago, but that certainly isn't the case now as they limp into this game losers of back-to-back and four of their last five games overall. Their lone victory over that stretch came by five points at home against the Mavs. Cleveland has shown signs of life lately, including an upset win over the Raptors on Monday night. The Cavs have been pushing the pace a little more lately, ranking 18th in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's a marked improvement as they had been pulling up the rear in that department a couple of weeks ago. The Magic currently rank 27th in pace rating over that same stretch. The Cavs also sit in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive rating over those last five contests. By contrast, the Magic are 29th and 18th, respectively. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Cavs here. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-13-19 | Houston Baptist v. Lamar -4 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NCAAB Southland Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Lamar minus the points over Houston Baptist at 6 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this matchup sets up for Lamar and why not? After all, the Cardinals just defeated the Huskies by 35 points back in February. In fact, Lamar has lost only two games dating back to January 26th and those came against the two best teams in the Southland Conference, Abilene-Christian and Sam Houston State. Houston Baptist has played much better basketball since the start of February, finishing eighth in the Southland Conference. The Huskies did defeat Lamar by six points at home back on January 2nd with Ian DuBose going off for 33 points in that overtime victory. That one clearly could have gone either way and the Cardinals certainly proved their superiority in the aforementioned next meeting. I'll lay the relatively short number here. Take Lamar (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Suns +12.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this game sets up for the underdog Suns. Phoenix has been playing some of its best basketball of the season, having reeled off three straight wins, albeit with each of those victories coming at home. I do expect the Suns to stay competitive as they hit the road to face the Blazers on Saturday night. Portland has dropped the cash in back-to-back games and has earned just one straight-up victory over its last four contests. It's been 'crazy 8's' for the Suns lately as entering last night's action, they ranked eighth in the league in pace rating, offensive rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Over that same period, Portland finds itself much farther down the pecking order. Notably, the Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in both pace rating and defensive rating over their last five games. Phoenix is playing with some confidence right now and it should relish the role of spoiler once again on Saturday. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-09-19 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota State -15 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
NCAAB Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over Western Illinois at 7 pm et on Saturday. We just saw this same matchup one week ago with the Jackrabbits rolling to a 20-point victory. I don't see this one playing out much differently as the two teams do battle in the Summit League Tournament. There's a major class difference between these two squads. The Leathernecks have managed only three victories since the start of January and none of those wins were considered major upsets. This obviously would be. South Dakota State finished the regular season tops in the Summit League but I don't expect it to let its guard down here, noting that the Jackrabbits have been involved in some close games against tough opposition lately, with four of their last five games being decided by single-digits. Keep in mind, those closer games came against the second, third, fourth and fifth-place teams in the Summit League. This one has blowout written all over it. Take South Dakota State (10*). |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are coming off rare back-to-back losses but I fully expect to see them bounce back in a big way in their return home following a long road trip on Thursday night. Milwaukee continues to push the tempo, ranking seventh in the league in pace rating over its last five games. By contrast, the Pacers check in second-last in the league in that same category over the same stretch. And we know the Bucks are more than capable of making the most of that up-tempo style, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that time frame as well. The Pacers have held their own in that department as well but I simply expect them to get overwhelmed defensively here. Indiana checks in 26th in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. This series hasn't been all that close this season with two of three meetings decided by 16 points or more and the other going the Bucks way by nine. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-05-19 | Bulls +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls as they continue to play well despite most believing they're in 'tank mode'. Chicago has gone 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and has won four games in a row straight-up on the road. While the Bulls rank only 19th in the league in pace rating over their last five games, the Pacers have been far worse, ranking 29th. In terms of offensive rating, the Bulls sit just one spot behind the Pacers over that same stretch, ranking sixth. After a terrific run, the Pacers have now gone 1-3 straight-up and ATS over their last four games. The Bulls have grabbed the cash in three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series and I look for them to hang tough again tonight. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-02-19 | Belmont -13.5 v. SE Missouri State | Top | 84-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
NCAAB Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Southeast Missouri State at 8 pm et on Saturday. Belmont is one of the country's best kept secrets, having gone 24-4 overall this season, currently sitting atop the Ohio Valley Conference standings. The Bruins have now scored 90+ points in four straight games and I don't believe Southeast Missouri State will prove to be any match for them on Saturday night, noting that Belmont already took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 26 points. Just two nights ago, the Bruins routed Tennessee- Martin 112-67 as 11.5-point favorites. Southeast Missouri State is coming off a blowout win of its own, but that came against 9-20 Tennessee State. Expect a rout on Saturday night. Take Belmont (10*). |
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02-28-19 | Jazz +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets are certainly rolling along right now, winners of five games in a row to move to an impressive 42-18 overall this season. I do expect them to face a serious challenge on Thursday night, however, as they host the Jazz. Utah continues to battle for playoff positioning, currently sitting sixth in the Western Conference. The Jazz just wrapped up a perfect 2-0 homestand last night which was much needed after dropping a couple of close ones on the road at Golden State and Oklahoma City. I like the way they've battled and believe they can hang here in Denver, where they lost 103-88 much earlier in the season. I do think they're a different team now and I like the way the spot sets up here as they hit the road for this one-gamer before returning home to host the Bucks on Saturday. Utah's pace of play may handicap it a bit in this particular matchup, but the Jazz have made up for it, ranking second in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Take Utah (10*). |
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02-27-19 | Warriors v. Heat +9 | Top | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Golden State at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat may be struggling on the heels of nine losses in their last 11 games but they did give the Warriors all they could handle in a narrow two-point loss, on the road no less, a little over two weeks ago, and I look for them to hang tough on Wednesday night as well. Miami can ill afford to let its slide continue for much longer as it currently sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference, a game-and-a-half back of the eighth and final playoff spot. Knowing they have to travel to Houston for another extremely tough matchup tomorrow night, I do think we'll see the Heat's best effort against the Warriors here. Golden State is coming off an 11-point win in Charlotte on Monday but has still failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven contests. Call it a lull, or call it whatever you want, but the fact is the Warriors are an elite team, not an elite bet - in fact, they've been one of the worst bets in the league since the start of last season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-26-19 | Celtics v. Raptors -4 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. We won by fading the Raptors on Sunday afternoon as they were in a clear letdown spot at home against the Magic coming off Friday's emotional (close) win at home against Demar Derozan and the Spurs. The Raps lost that game against the seemingly overmatched Magic outright, in blowout fashion no less. Here I’ll switch gears and back Toronto as it hosts a big game against the rival Celtics. There’s not a lot separating these two squads talent-wise even if the standings say otherwise. The Celtics have taken two of the previous three meetings this season. We've actually won with both sides in this matchup this season. The Raps have a rested Kawhi Leonard for this one and I’m confident they’ll be back up for it after Sunday’s no show against Orlando. Expect a competitive game but I'll lay the short number. Take Toronto (10*). |
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02-16-19 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech +6 | Top | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
NCAAB ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wins rarely come easy for the Seminoles here in Atlanta, where they lost their last meeting by 22 points and their previous two victories on this floor came by two and four points. Florida State did take the first meeting between these two teams this season by 10 points, but that was thanks to an abysmal 28.3% shooting effort from the Yellow Jackets, including 3-of-21 from beyond the arc. The 'Noles enter this contest on the heels of three straight ATS wins. They haven't won four in a row ATS since starting last season with a perfect 7-0 ATS record in non-conference play. Georgia Tech has lost six straight games in ACC play to fall to 3-9 in-conference this season. With that being said, the Jackets have gone a solid 16-9 ATS overall this season. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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02-14-19 | Blues -143 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blues are the talk of the league right now, having rallied back from a miserable start to the season to climb right back into the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Riding a seven-game winning streak I look for their good fortunes to continue on Thursday night in the desert. Arizona has won back-to-back games and is certainly no pushover. However, the Coyotes are just 10-13-3 on home ice this season. To put it mildly, the 'Yotes don't possess much of a home ice advantage at all. Meanwhile, the Blues have really gotten themselves locked in on the road, going 14-9-3. Arizona has won three straight meetings in this series but prior to that the Blues absolutely owned the Coyotes. Note that they haven't met since December 1st. The Blues are a different team now. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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02-13-19 | Wizards +11 v. Raptors | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors may be the vastly superior team in this matchup as far as overall records go but the Wizards are actually just a half-game behind the Raps in terms of ATS marks. Toronto loaded up prior to the trade deadline, acquiring Marc Gasol in a blockbuster deal with Memphis. There's no question it's going to take Gasol some time to get acclimated, however, noting that he has split time with Serge Ibaka, playing off the bench, since joining Toronto. Washington put together back-to-back wins before dropping a nine-point decision in Detroit last time out. That result should have served to shake off most potential Wiz backers leading up to this one. The Raptors do check in having won five games in a row SU, but are just 3-5 ATS over their last eight contests. They rarely blow out the Wizards and I don't see it happening here either. Take Washington (10*). |
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02-09-19 | Auburn v. LSU -2 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
NCAAB SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on LSU minus the points over Auburn at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with LSU as it tries to snap a three-game losing streak against the Auburn Tigers. The Bayou Bengals haven't defeated Auburn since 2016 although it's worth noting that they've been significant underdogs in each of the last three meetings. The shoe is on the other foot this time around as LSU is favored at the time of writing. Motivation should be high for LSU as it dropped its most recent home game as a 10-point favorite against Arkansas. Keep in mind, the Tigers are still 11-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 16 points per contest. Auburn checks in having won three in a row but it was favored by at least 8.5 points in all three of those games. The Tigers are just 1-4 SU in true road games, allowing nearly 80 points per game on just shy of 47% shooting. Take LSU (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs +8 | Top | 122-107 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Friday. The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and certainly look unstoppable on the heels of five consecutive SU and ATS victories. However, here they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 13 nights in a seventh different city. The Mavs are no slouches here at home, where they own one of the strongest home court edges in the NBA, having gone 19-7 SU. Like the Bucks, the Mavs have also been tearing it up ATS, having reeled off five straight victories and gone 7-0-1 ATS over their last eight contests. The Bucks haven't won a game here in years. In last season's meeting on this floor the Mavs won by 32 points. Take Dallas (10*). |
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02-08-19 | Hurricanes v. Rangers +111 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rangers on Friday night as they try to build off of Wednesday's shootout victory over the Bruins. New York has been a completely different team here at home, where it has scored just shy of three goals per game while giving up under 2.7. Keep in mind, this is the same team that has allowed over four goals per contest on the road. It's surely worth noting that the Canes are a miserable 5-25-1 in their last 31 meetings with the Rangers here at MSG. Playing the second of back-to-back nights, look for the Canes to have a tough time skating past the Broadway Blueshirts. Take New York (10*). |
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02-07-19 | San Francisco +18 v. Gonzaga | Top | 62-92 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. Motivation should be high for the Dons as they try to avoid a third consecutive loss on the road in conference play. Their last two losses at San Diego and St. Mary's really could have gone either way. Despite those two setbacks, they're still a winning team on the road this season. Obviously Gonzaga is an elite team - a true national championship contender. With that being said, the Zags haven't been involved in a close game in months, essentially. They could actually use a bit of a sweat here and I think they get just that. Keep in mind, the Dons played even with the Bulldogs for a half in their previous meeting back on January 12th. Gonzaga shot better than 52% as a team in that game while San Francisco was completely off, hitting just 40.6% of their shots. I'm not about to call for an outright Dons victory here, but I am confident we'll see them stay inside the lofty pointspread. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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02-04-19 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Monday. Absolutely huge spot for the Sooners here as they try to turn things around off back-to-back losses to Baylor and West Virginia. That loss to Baylor came in blowout fashion right here at home last Monday night so motivation will certainly be high as they host a rolling Iowa State squad on Monday night. The Cyclones. have won three games in a row and five of their last six overall, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. Note that Oklahoma has held the opposition to 37.7% shooting at home this season. They check in a solid 8-2 straight-up at home while Iowa State is just an even 3-3 in true road games. This has been a home-dominated series and I like that trend to continue on Monday. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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01-29-19 | Ball State +12 v. Buffalo | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
NCAAB MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Ball State may be just 2-5 in MAC play so far this season but four of those five losses could have truly gone either way and here we're being given a generous helping of points to work with as the Cardinals challenge the nationally-ranked Buffalo Bulls. Note that the road team has won three straight, four of five and six of the last nine meetings in this series. It's worth noting that three of the Bulls six ATS losses this season have come in their last four contests. Buffalo will be challenged here, facing a Ball State squad that averages over 78 points per game on 51.1% shooting on the road this season. Ball State is actually the slightly better free throw shooting team and can hold its own on the boards as well. Take Ball State (10*). |
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01-28-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma -6 | Top | 77-47 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the points with Oklahoma in this contest as the Sooners aim to put an end to Baylor's four-game SU and ATS winning streak. Motivation will obviously be high for Oklahoma as it checks in a disappointing 3-4 in Big 12 play this season. Meanwhile, Baylor has won four of its first six games in conference play. Note that the Sooners have held the opposition to 36% shooting at home this season, while shooting an impressive 47% themselves. We won with Baylor on Saturday as it got past Alabama but I won't hesitate to switch gears here. Take Oklahoma (10*). |
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01-26-19 | Evansville +3.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
NCAAB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Northern Iowa at 8 pm et on Saturday. Not a lot separates these two teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. In fact, they check in sporting identical conference records. With that being said, I believe Evansville has a little more upside and I'm confident the Purple Aces will hang tough for 40 minutes on Saturday night. Northern Iowa is 2-1 at home in MVC play but it averages just 61 points per game on 37.6% shooting on this floor this season. The Panthers also check in shooting a miserable 65% from the free throw line here at home. By contrast, the Purple Aces are shooting better than 74% from the charity stripe on the road. Take Evansville (10*). |
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01-25-19 | Brown +7 v. Yale | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
NCAAB Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Yale at 7 pm et on Friday. Yale got the better of Brown last week week, on the road no less, prevailing by three points as a small favorite. The Bulldogs have now reeled off seven straight wins but went just 3-3 ATS in lined contests over that stretch. Brown saw its six-game losing streak come to an end last time out and the Bears will be highly-motivated to avoid an 0-2 hole in Ivy League play tonight. While Brown hasn't had much success on the road against Yale, it's not as if it has had its doors blown off with regularity either. Note that three of its last four games here were decided by single-digits - all straight-up losses for the Bears. Yale has shot the lights out here at home this season but it will face a challenge here with Brown limiting the opposition to 38.7% shooting on the road this season. The Bulldogs did shoot better than 47% against Brown last weekend, but still won by just three points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-24-19 | St. Mary's v. BYU +1.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAB WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Gaels and Cougars renew their rivalry on Thursday night after St. Mary's routed BYU earlier this month. I like the Cougars to get back at the Gaels here, as they host them for the first time since December 2017. St. Mary's enters this contest riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. The Gaels are off to a 4-1 start in WCC play, although it is worth noting that their lone loss came on the road, where they've gone just 2-2 SU in true road contests this season. BYU checks in 9-1 at home, where it averages just shy of 84 points per game on better than 48% shooting while holding the opposition to under 40% shooting. The Cougars are coming off a blowout loss at San Francisco. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this matchup, noting that they had won three games in a row previously. I understand the logic behind the Gaels being favored in this matchup, but I'm confident we'll see BYU defend its home floor. Take BYU (10*). |
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01-23-19 | Texas v. TCU -4 | Top | 61-65 | Push | 0 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This feels like a letdown spot for Texas off Saturday's thrilling home win over rival Oklahoma. Prior to that, the Longhorns had dropped three games in a row. TCU is coming off a 10-point loss at Kansas State and has now dropped three of its last four contests. However, the Horned Frogs are a terrific 8-1 straight-up at home this season, including a 31-point beatdown of West Virginia in their last game on this floor. They're averaging just shy of 82 points per game on better than 51% shooting at home this season. Meanwhile, Texas is putting up only 67.7 ppg on the road. Also note that TCU has won its last two home meetings with Texas by 16 and 15 points. Take TCU (10*). |
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01-21-19 | Creighton v. Georgetown -1.5 | Top | 91-87 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAB Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Monday. I'll lay the short number with Georgetown as it hosts a reeling Creighton squad on Monday night. The Blue Jays have lost four straight games and are giving up a whopping 82 points per game on just shy of 49% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Georgetown will play with a lot of motivation here having dropped three straight meetings in this series, while also coming off a narrow 74-71 home loss to Marquette. The Hoyas are 9-3 at home this season, averaging north of 87 ppg on 45.6% shooting on this floor. Take Georgetown (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints last week as they escaped with a narrow win over the Eagles. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans this time around as they try to defeat the Rams for the second time this season, and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly a decade. Give the Rams credit as they made the red hot Cowboys look rather punchless in last week's dominant victory at home. But now they face a much tougher challenge as they travel to New Orleans, where the Saints own an incredible home field advantage. We didn't see the Saints bring their 'A' game offensively last week, but their defense more than made up for it with a particularly strong finish, keyed by a critical interception in the game's final minute. While the Saints run defense has been terrific this season, I do think the Rams will make some gains on the ground in this one. With that being said, I believe this game comes down to whether Rams QB Jared Goff can get it done against the Saints secondary, or at least keep pace with the legend on the other side in Drew Brees. I don't see it happening. The Saints offense has another gear that I expect to see it reach this Sunday. Unlike last week when their performance was a little disjointed, I look for New Orleans to come out strong and ultimately pull away for a win and cover to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-19-19 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure +3 | Top | 89-86 | Push | 0 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
NCAAB Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Bonnies at home on Saturday afternoon. St. Bonaventure is coming off a double-digit loss at Rhode Island earlier this week but that's no big surprise as it has gone 0-6 on the road this season. Here at home, the Bonnies have been more productive, going 5-2 straight-up. In fact, in their most recent home game they beat St. Joe's by a lopsided 73-47 margin. While they haven't enjoyed much success in this particular matchup, I feel they catch Dayton in a good spot here. The Flyers saw their six-game winning streak come to an end last time out, suffering a narrow 76-71 loss at VCU. The Flyers are now a miserable 1-7 ATS over their last eight contests. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Divisional Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Los Angeles and New England at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. We’re dealing with a fairly high total in this game but I’m anticipating a bit of a slugfest. The Chargers offense is somewhat limited with RB Melvin Gordon dealing with a myriad of injuries. Give him credit for sticking it out and turning in a solid performance against the Ravens last week but it’s really difficult to gauge just how much he has left in the tank for this one. I have felt all season that the Patriots possess an underrated defense that is capable of rising to the occasion when it needs to. This is certainly one of those spots where the Pats are going to need a peak performance from their defense as I’m really not sure how much success Tom Brady and company will have on offense against a talented and creative Chargers defense. Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley pushed all the right buttons in last week’s dominant performance against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens run-first offense. The Chargers will face a much different challenge here but I do expect them to show up and play well again. Note that the Patriots scored 27 points or less in six of their final nine regular season games and they eclipsed that number against the likes of the Packers, Dolphins and Jets so it’s tough to envision them getting back to that level here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-10-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -122 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -122 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over San Jose at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Two red hot teams will go head-to-head in Las Vegas on Thursday night but I like the Golden Knights to get the better of the Sharks here. Vegas has quietly gone on a run, reeling off seven straight victories, not allowing more than two goals in any of those victories. The Knights stellar home ice advantage is back as they've gone 15-3-3 here on the strip. The Sharks have won four games in a row but the last three of those came at home. They're just 10-9-3 on the road this season. Vegas has had San Jose's number since last year, taking seven of the last 10 meetings with two of the Sharks wins coming by way of overtime. Take Vegas (10*). |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. This is the fourth straight year that the Tigers and Crimson Tide will meet in the College Football Playoff and after getting blown out in the semi-final last year, I fully expect Dabo Swinney's Tigers to respond with a strong performance here. I'll grab the points in what should be a far more competitive affair than we saw a year ago. Alabama has actually just covered one spread over its last four games, that coming in a 52-21 rout of Auburn back on November 24th. Meanwhile, Clemson rolls into this contest after blowing out Pitt in the ACC Championship Game and Notre Dame in the CFP semi-final. There's really not a lot more to say about this matchup than has already been said. I simply feel that taking the points is the right move in a game where there's little to separate two elite squads. Take Clemson (10*). |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens in this matchup as they catch the Chargers in a favorable matchup, playing an early afternoon game on the east coast on Sunday. The Ravens have already proven they can beat the Chargers, and they did so on the road no less, back before Christmas. Baltimore simply isn’t the same team it was earlier in the season. Since installing QB Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have gone run-heavy, in fact they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league, playing keep-away against every opponent they’ve faced. I expect nothing different here, and I like the fact that they’re facing a Chargers squad that seemingly peaked too early this season, perhaps doing so on that Thursday night win in Kansas City in early December. I have a lot of confidence in the Ravens ability on both sides of the football, with their defense putting together an incredible body of work over the course of the entire season. Their ability to step up and finish off a surging Browns offense on the final season-saving drive last Sunday afternoon was tremendous. Look for them to build off of that performance here. Maybe I would have more confidence in Los Angeles were it not for all of the injuries do-it-all RB Melvin Gordon has dealt with. This is quite simply a beaten up Chargers offense right now, and one I can’t see walking into Baltimore and stealing a win on Sunday. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 48 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Indianapolis and Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday. This one sets up as a high-scoring playoff showdown between two familiar division opponents. I don’t believe the Texans pass defense can do much to slow a red hot Colts aerial attack led by QB Andrew Luck. Buoyed by a relatively weak schedule, the Houston pass ‘D’ is a ‘paper tiger’ as far as I’m concerned. Look for the Colts to move the football at will through the air in the friendly confines of Reliant Stadium on Saturday afternoon. I do fully expect this to be a competitive affair, and if we project the Colts to move the football and put plenty of points on the board, the Texans are going to have to as well. Houston obviously does have offensive weapons, namely dual-threat QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Colts defense has been good, but ultimately got here thanks to facing a rather limited Titans offense led by backup QB Blaine Gabbert last Sunday night. They will be taking a step up in class in this one. We saw a pair of relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams during the regular season, and I expect nothing different here. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-19 | Washington v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel there is a considerable class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the pointspread. If you're looking for impressive victories on Washington's schedule, they're pretty tough to find. I felt that it was a down year for the Pac-12 as a whole and when the Huskies did step up in class, they lost against Auburn (we won with the Tigers in that game) and also suffered a loss at Oregon. Ohio State closed out the season with five straight wins, including a rout of a game Northwestern squad in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Buckeyes scored at will for much of the season but also proved they could win in a defensive slugfest, posting wins (and covers) at Penn State and Michigan State. There are those that feel the Huskies can hang around with their defense in this matchup - I'm not so easily convinced. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
NCAAF Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Monday. Cincinnati put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch this season but it did so against weak opposition. Meanwhile, the Bearcats were held to 13 points against UCF, 26 points in an overtime win over SMU and 17 points in an overtime loss to Temple, just to name a few subpar offensive performances. Virginia Tech isn't the defensive powerhouse it once was, but it can still hang. Like the Bearcats, the Hokies offense didn't do a great job when stepping up in class this season. Prior to scoring 34 and 41 points in their final two regular season games, they had put up 28 points or less in six consecutive contests. I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Raiders Christmas Eve win over the Broncos, and came close to backing Oakland in that game as well. I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Raiders as they close out the regular season on the road at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon, however. The Chiefs have fallen on some tough times down the stretch, dropping three of their last five games heading into this one. Keep in mind, their losses came on the road against the Rams and Seahawks and at home against the Chargers so there was really no shame in any of those defeats. In that mix was also a narrow road win over the Raiders. The relatively close nature of that contest should help keep their guard up on Sunday afternoon. Not as if they need any extra motivation as they're playing for the number one seed in the AFC and could incredibly fall as many as four spots if things don't go their way this week. With the Raiders in a clear letdown spot, and heading into one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, I believe the oddsmakers have this one right. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 8:15 pm et on Monday. You can be sure there will be a lot of bettors looking for action eager to play the 'over' in this, the lone game on the board on Christmas Eve. I can't help but feel the total has been shaded a little high. Note that the Raiders have been involved in a string of relatively high-scoring affairs with the 'over' going 3-1-1 in their last five contests. I'm not sure that's sustainable, however, noting that the Oakland offense is rather punchless. While the Raiders defense has been bad as well, I don't believe the Broncos are well-suited to take advantage. With RB Philip Lindsay struggling over the last couple of games, the Denver offense hasn't been able to gain any headway. An injury to WR Emmanuel Sanders - QB Case Keenum's favorite target - hasn't helped. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series and none of those games have really come all that close to going 'over'. That includes earlier this season, when the Broncos beat the Raiders 20-19 with a field goal in the closing seconds. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. There's really nothing to fear when it comes to the Rams offense right now. Injuries have taken their toll with WR Cooper Kupp sidelined and RB Todd Gurley banged-up to say the least. We've seen a severely limited Sean McVay offense in the last couple of games and things don't figure to get much easier as they hit the road to face a Cardinals squad eager to play the spoiler role on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Arizona offense continues to struggle. Now they go up against a highly-motivated Rams defense that has gotten better with the return of CB Aqib Talib. Note that the Rams shut out the Cardinals earlier this season and have allowed just 16 points in taking each of the last three meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-18 | Giants v. Colts OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an excellent spot to back the 'over' as the Giants aim to bounce back from a truly ugly showing at a rain-soaked Meadowlands last Sunday. Look for RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram to pace the charge for the Giants offense, which has certainly been handicapped by an ineffective Eli Manning this season. The Colts offense didn't have to do a whole lot at home against the Cowboys last week as they cruised to a 23-0 victory. QB Andrew Luck will likely have to dial it up a little more in this one, and should have plenty of success against a very limited Giants defense that has been getting ripped on a regular basis this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army OVER 59 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
NCAAF Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Army's last game, its annual clash with Navy earlier this month. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' in this one, however, even with Houston missing QB D'Eriq King to a knee injury. Keep in mind, in the Cougars last game against Memphis, backup QB Clayton Tune threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. I do believe the Cougars will be able to move the football against this Army defense. On the flip side, Houston is not a good defensive team, getting ripped time and time again over the course of the season. I'm not sure the extra preparation time will have helped all that much as they get ready to go up against the Army triple-option offense. Take the over (10*). |
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12-21-18 | Pacers -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers are coming off back-to-back losses but both of those games could have gone either way, including a narrow defeat in Toronto on Wednesday night. I expect to see Indiana bounce back in Brooklyn on Friday night, where it hasn't lost a game in over two years. The Pacers are a quality road team, checking in at 9-7 away from home this season. Meanwhile, the Nets are coming off seven straight victories but keep in mind, they've been favored in three of their last four games and a short underdog in the other contest, at home against the Lakers. Brooklyn is still just 7-10 at home this season. Take Indiana (10*). |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Week. My selection is on Marshall minus the points over South Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday. Outside of an early season win over Georgia Tech I have a tough time finding many quality wins on South Florida's resume and I believe the Bulls will be in tough against the Thundering Herd on Thursday night. These teams are mirror images of one another as far as ATS success goes, with both struggling against the number down the stretch. Marshall is without question the healthier squad heading into this game and I like the advantages the Thundering Herd have in the trenches, where they allowed less than three yards per rush this season in contrast to the Bulls 5.0 yards per rush allowed. Take Marshall (10*). |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Lions travel across the country after beating the Cardinals in Arizona last Sunday. Detroit is still a bottom-feeder as far as I'm concerned, and while the Bills haven't been any better, they do have some upside here at home in December, coming off a narrow loss to the Jets last week. Look for the Buffalo defense to come up big in this one against a punchless Lions offense. We're being asked to lay a short number with the team in the much better spot. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -100 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Chiefs on Thursday night as they host the surging Chargers with an AFC West division title potentially hanging in the balance. Kansas City is dealing with some key injuries, including one to star WR Tyreek Hill. It sounds like Hill will play on Thursday night although it remains to be seen how effective he can be on a short week. Regardless, I still expect to see the Chiefs offense roll against a banged up Chargers defense. This is actually a fine spot for the Chiefs ground game, even if they are undermanned in that department. Los Angeles has won three games in a row but didn't make things easy on itself in last week's home game against the lowly Bengals. The fact that the Chargers have allowed 51 points in their last two contests is alarming to be sure as they prepare to face one of the league's best offenses in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have won nine straight games in this series straight-up and four in a row ATS. Despite sputtering a little bit lately, Kansas City has still outgained each of its last five opponents in terms of total yardage and comes in battle-tested off last week's overtime win over Baltimore. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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12-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Islanders +129 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Vegas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Islanders are coming off a shootout loss at home against the Penguins on Monday night but I fully expect to see them bounce back here on Wednesday as they host the Golden Knights. Vegas hasn't played a game in the eastern time zone since way back on November 11th, when it suffered a 4-1 loss in Boston. The Knights went 1-3 on that eastern road swing. They haven't been a good road team this season, posting only seven wins in 18 games. Meanwhile, the Isles have gone 7-4-3 on home ice. New York is 2-0 all-time against the Knights. Take New York (10*). |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Portland has already gone into Houston and won this season and even last April we saw the Blazers battle the Rockets in an eventual two-point loss on this floor. Now the Blazers have plenty of motivation as they've lost four straight games on the road but have to feel confident after delivering back-to-back wins (and covers) on their home floor. The Rockets were in a nice revenge spot in Dallas on Saturday but still came up short, suffering their third straight loss. Their offense is by no means functioning at a high level right now and I don't see a turnaround coming here. Note that Houston has been one of the league's worst bets this season, going 9-16 ATS. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I believe we're dealing with a very reasonable total in this matchup, largely due to how inept the Vikings offense looked in last week's ugly 10-point effort in New England. I do expect a strong bounce-back performance here as the Seahawks have certainly been beatable on defense this season, regardless whether they've been at home or on the road. Key here may be the fact that Seattle is giving up nearly six yards per rush in recent weeks, and goes up against a highly-motivated RB in Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are beat up defensively and will go up against a Seahawks offense that seems to be gaining confidence with each passing week. Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is poised for a big performance against a struggling Vikings defense in the slot. Meanwhile, RB Chris Carson has given Seattle some real consistency in the backfield. Minnesota has been tough against the run but I think the Seahawks will be creative enough with Carson and Rashaad Penny running the football to make some headway. Take the over (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Jets v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. It’s hard to believe we’re laying points with the Bills at this stage of the season but this is a fine matchup for Buffalo, at home against a listless Jets squad that has a lame duck head coach in Todd Bowles and a makeshift roster due to a number of key injuries. The Jets have lost six games in a row, scoring more than 17 points only once over that stretch, and that came against the Titans last week. It’s worth noting that New York didn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game and was outscored 20-6 in the second half. Expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Bills suffered a 21-17 loss at Miami but easily could have won were it not for a Charles Clay drop in the end zone late in the fourth quarter. There were definitely some positives to take away from that game as QB Josh Allen threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns and also ran for an incredible 135 yards. There are no concerns at all around the Bills defense as they’ve given up just 52 points over their last three games, going 2-1 in the process. We’re being asked to lay a reasonable number here given Buffalo has already defeated New York 41-10, on the road no less, back on November 11th. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-09-18 | Falcons v. Packers -4 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers mercifully ended the Mike McCarthy era after last week’s demoralizing home loss to the lowly Cardinals. Now I look for them to play with an edge with QB Aaron Rodgers essentially the play-caller on offense. This is Rodgers’ team for the rest of the season anyway and I expect him to perform well against a very beatable Falcons defense. Atlanta is in free-fall mode right now, having dropped four straight games, scoring fewer than 20 points in all four contests. The Falcons haven’t traveled well this season, going 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, with a number of blowout losses in the mix. Their lone road win came against the Redskins. The Packers may no longer have much to play for, but I’m confident we’ll see them show up for their home faithful at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps last week’s no-show had something to do with suffering back-to-back tight, emotional losses to the Seahawks and Vikings, both on the road, over the previous two weeks. Expect a bounce-back here. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off wins last Sunday, albeit in much different fashions. The Jaguars completely stymied the Colts in a 6-0 victory while the Titans rallied from a big deficit to get past the Jets 26-22. The Titans have now suffered three straight ATS losses. They haven't lost more than three games in a row ATS since back in 2015-16. Note that they went 3-13 straight-up that season. While this Tennessee squad has had its issues, it's not nearly as bad as that 2015 edition. Prior to last week's win over the Colts, the Jags had gone 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS over their last seven games. QB Cody Kessler made his first start of the season against Indianapolis and completed 18-of-24 passes but for only 150 yards and not a single touchdown. He benefited from playing from ahead in that game. I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate this time around and should the Jags fall behind, I expect to see some mistakes from Kessler against a strong Titans defense. That really should be the difference in this game - the Titans defense. They've been getting torched by the run in recent weeks and the Jags will get RB Leonard Fournette back on Thursday. With that being said, I believe the Titans will benefit from facing a one-dimensional Jags offense. Tennessee's offense has sputtered for much of the campaign and while I'm not sure it will get much going on the ground against an elite Jags run defense, I do believe QB Marcus Mariota can find some success through the air against what I consider to be an overrated Jags pass defense. The Titans have taken three straight meetings ATS in this series. They have the better SU and ATS record this season and they certainly have more to play for on Thursday night. I'll lay the points. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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12-06-18 | Canadiens v. Senators +112 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No respect at all being given to the Senators here as they check in as the home underdog at the time of writing. Yes, the Habs took the front half of this home-and-home series by a lopsided 5-2 score on Tuesday night but that was no real surprise as the home side has now won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. Ottawa has shown a tremendous home-road dichotomy this season, going 9-4-2 here in the nation's capital but just 3-9-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the Habs have won just five times in 12 road games this season. Montreal has still won just two of its last eight games overall while Ottawa had won three straight games prior to Tuesday's setback. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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12-05-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Golden State at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors own the far superior overall record this season, having gone 16-9 straight-up compared to the Cavs ugly 5-18 mark. With that being said, Cleveland has been the better bet, going 12-11 ATS in contrast to the Warriors 11-14 ATS record. Golden State got off to a tremendous start on Monday night in Atlanta and ultimately cruised to a 17-point victory. It is worth noting, however, that the Warriors were actually even with the Hawks over the final three quarters of that game. The Cavs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 99-97 win in Brooklyn last time out and are now 5-3 ATS over their last eight contests. They've gotten a nice boost from rookie Collin Sexton, not to mention the addition of Alec Burks by trade, as he has scored in double figures in three straight games since joining the Cavs. This is a clear sandwich spot for the Warriors as they'll head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks on Friday. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It wasn't pretty, but the Eagles got just what they needed last week, rallying to defeat the Giants at home to stay alive in the NFC East race. Now they get another slam dunk divisional matchup at home against the undermanned Redskins and I look for them to take full advantage. I really liked what I saw from Philadephia in the second half of last week's game as RB Josh Adams took over and showed everyone that the Eagles can still run the football. That means a lot as QB Carson Wentz simply hasn't lived up to expectations after a tremendous, albeit injury-shortened 2017 season. Wentz has all sorts of weapons at his disposal, and here on Monday night, I believe those weapons will be on display against a middle of the road Redskins defense. Washington's pass defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on and I don't see a big resurgence here. Offensively, the 'Skins are in tough with QB Colt McCoy at the helm. He made a couple of big plays but also made some big mistakes against the Cowboys last week. Even an extended week of practice isn't going to make much of a difference for McCoy, playing behind a shaky, beat up offensive line. This would be a matchup for the 'Skins passing game to take full advantage of with the Eagles secondary missing a number of key cogs, but I'm not sure McCoy will have any time or room to make those big plays. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks -10 | Top | 16-43 | Win | 105 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. Seattle has worked its way back into playoff contention but needs to take full advantage of this slam dunk matchup on Sunday at home against San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off arguably their worst performance of the season, dropping a 27-9 decision at Tampa Bay. Things certainly won't get any easier here as they travel back across the country to face a highly-motivated Seahawks squad. Seattle's offense has really turned things around after looking punchless earlier in the season. RB Chris Carson has given them a lot of versatility while QB Russell Wilson appears to be healthy again, showing a lot more mobility than we saw in the early stages of the season. WR Tyler Lockett is playing some of the best football of his young career while Doug Baldwin continues to work his way back to full health as well. As long as the Seahawks don't completely overlook the Niners they should roll by two touchdowns plus in this one. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-02-18 | Broncos v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Denver and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a lower scoring game than most expected last week at home against Pittsburgh but it’s not as if the Steelers didn’t move the football all afternoon long. The common line of thinking here is that the Denver defense will be able to manhandle the Jeff Driskel-led Bengals offense but I’m not so easily convinced. Driskel has actually had quite a bit of experience running the Cincinnati offense in the preseason and attempted 29 passes in relief of Andy Dalton last Sunday against Cleveland. I like the fact that Driskel got his feet wet with a touchdown pass to WR Tyler Boyd last week and expect him to build off of that 17-29, 155 pass yards performance against a beatable Broncos secondary. Driskel is expected to have WR A.J. Green at his disposal for this one as well. The Denver offense has been hit-or-miss for the most part this season but lately we have at least seen some consistency as the Broncos have scored 20, 45, 23, 17, 23 and 24 points over their last six games with the outlier coming in a pre-bye week game against the Texans. Here, the Broncos will go up against an awful Bengals defense that simply isn’t stopping anyone right now. Look for RB Philip Lindsay and WR Emmanuel Sanders to go off in this game. We’re dealing with a relatively low total here, largely due to the unappealing matchup between two 5-6 teams. I believe we will see more offensive fireworks than most anticipate. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-18 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' in Minnesota on Wednesday night. The Spurs needed everything they had to get past the lowly Bulls by a single point in Chicago on Monday night. It did mark their seventh straight game scoring over 100 points and I don't think they'll have much trouble eclipsing that number again on Wednesday. Note that San Antonio has scored 117 and 112 points in two meetings with the T'Wolves since the start of 2018. Minnesota has seen the 'under' cash in seven straight games. While they have allowed just 96 and 95 points over their last two games, those contests came against the Cavs and Bulls - two of the league's weakest teams. They'll face a much tougher challenge here, although based on the pointspread being in their favor, I'm certainly anticipating a competitive game from start to finish, and that should lend itself to a high-scoring affair in this case. The first meeting between these two teams this season totaled 220 points. I'll call for more of the same here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-27-18 | Hurricanes +107 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Carolina over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This has been a lopsided series lately with the Hurricanes taking each of the last four meetings. Montreal hasn't defeated Carolina at home since back in November 2016. I don't believe this is the Habs team to turn things around, as they enter this contest mired in a four-game losing streak, failing to score more than two goals in each of their last three games. Carolina saw its three-game winning streak come to an end on the road against the upstart Islanders last time out. I see this as an excellent 'get right' spot before enjoying a couple of days off. This may look like a potential mismatch between the pipes with Curtis McElhinney expected to go for the Canes and Carey Price likely to start for the Habs. However, it is McElhinney that has been the more consistent goaltender this season, posting a .919 save percentage compared to Price's .897. Take Carolina (10*). |
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11-27-18 | Knicks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks are riding a season-high three-game winning streak with all three of those wins coming in outright underdog fashion. Keep in mind, they were at least eight-point underdogs in all three of those contests. We're dealing with a shorter number here at the time of posting, and I believe we're getting value with the Pistons, who are also playing some terrific basketball right now. Detroit has won six of its last eight games overall, going 7-1 ATS over that stretch. The Pistons will benefit from staying home for a third straight game here, coming off a double-digit win over the Suns on this floor two nights ago. While Detroit checks in 6-3 at home this season, New York has won just four times in 12 road games. Note that the Knicks have already lost games by 11, 23, 13, 16, 25 and 14 points on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Houston at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Titans here in a division game that I believe will be tightly-contested all the way. Tennessee was in a really tough hangover spot last week, going on the road to face a red hot Colts squad fresh off a stunning blowout victory over the Patriots at home the previous week. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Titans came out flat and ultimately got blown out. Now they face a critical matchup with the Texans, sitting two games back of Houston in the AFC South standings. I'm confident we'll see Mike Vrabel's squad come to play in this one. The Texans are red hot, fresh off seven straight victories. However, they've certainly shown a tendency to get involved in close games, with four of those seven wins coming by a field goal or less. The only two truly lopsided victories over that stretch came against two weak opponents in the Jaguars and Dolphins. In those seven wins, the Texans outgained only one opponent by more than 57 total yards (the Cowboys back on October 7th - a game they won by a field goal in overtime). Keep in mind, the Titans were just a one-point underdog in Indianapolis last week. I'm not convinced they should be catching more than a field goal here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Raiders v. Ravens -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark going against the Raiders last Sunday in Arizona but I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, this time backing the Ravens in Baltimore. Oakland is not a good football team. This is not a good matchup. The Raiders defense is slow, plain and simple. Now they have to travel for an early start on the east coast, and face arguably the fastest starting quarterback in the NFL in Lamar Jackson. We saw clear evidence of what the Ravens want to do with Jackson under center, and that’s run the football. At this point of the season, it’s pretty clear that the offense isn’t really that well-suited to the injured Joe Flacco. I do feel that Jackson can continue to give them a bit of a boost. Defensively, the Ravens should be fine against a Raiders offense that showed some signs of life last Sunday but still isn’t very good. Note that in that victory over Arizona, QB Derek Carr threw for less than 200 yards and the Raiders top rusher was Jalen Richard with only 61 yards on the ground. Their top receiver had 50 yards. I could go on but the fact is, the Raiders are a bottom-feeder, and they’re a big underdog for a reason on Sunday in Baltimore. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 46 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in Seattle’s win over Green Bay last Thursday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson looks as healthy as he has been all season and has now thrown for over 400 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games. Add in the fact that RB Chris Carson has been productive in four of his last six games and this is an offense with a lot of upside right now. The Panthers benefited from facing a predictable Lions offense last week but still fell by a 20-19 score. There should be a sense of urgency as they return home this week off of back-to-back road losses. I’m still high on the Carolina offense, which has certainly had its share of big games this season. We can count on a big bounce-back effort here against a beatable Seahawks defense that just isn’t what it once was, particularly in the secondary. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State OVER 66 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
NCAAF MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Utah State and Boise State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. Unlike Boise State’s most recent big MWC test against Fresno State (we won with the Broncos in that game) which turned into a bit of a slugfest, we can expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Broncos welcome the Aggies to the blue turf on Saturday night. Utah State faced a bit of a challenge last Saturday as it struggled to get its usually-potent offense going on the road against Colorado State on senior night. I certainly anticipate seeing the Aggies offense bounce back in a big way here, however. Boise State’s defense does come in playing well but I’m not sure it’s sustainable against a top-level opponent. Note that the Broncos have allowed 44 points against Oklahoma State, 27 points against Nevada, 28 points against Colorado State and 38 points against Air Force this season. In other words, the Broncos defense is beatable. On the other side, Boise State’s offense is rolling right now, with QB Brett Rypien having thrown for 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions over his last five games. RB Alexander Mattison has racked up a whopping 299 rushing yards on 50 carries over his last two games and has found the end zone seven times in his last five. Utah State is 10-1 on the strength of its offense, not its defense and that should be evident against Boise State on Saturday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Arkansas v. Missouri OVER 59 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NCAAF SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arkansas and Missouri at 2:30 pm et on Friday. There is high potential for a shootout when the Razorbacks and Tigers do battle in Columbia on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, this matchup produced a whopping 93 points a year ago. While we may not get quite that level of shootout this time around, I still feel we’re dealing with a very reasonable total. Arkansas is rounding out a dismal campaign, having posted just two victories to date. We haven’t seen many signs of life from the Hogs offense over the last couple of games, but those have been in tough matchups at home against LSU and at Mississippi State. They’re certainly capable of busting out given the fact they’ve put up 31 points against Alabama, 33 against Ole Miss and 31 against Vandy this season. Here, they get a Missouri defense that has held up well lately, but has certainly been vulnerable at times this season. The Tigers offense continues to hum along, having scored 111 points during their current three-game winning streak. They should be able to keep on rolling against an Arkansas defense that has given up at least 37 points in four of its last five losses. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
NCAAF Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Nebraska and Iowa at 12 noon et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair in Iowa City on Friday afternoon. Nebraska is coming off an exceptionally low-scoring result against Michigan State last week, prevailing by a 9-6 score. Keep in mind, just two weeks ago, the Huskers were involved in a wild 54-35 home win over Illinois. The week previous to that they fell just short in a shootout at Ohio State, losing by a 36-31 score. Those type of shootouts have been the norm for Nebraska this season so I look at last week’s result as nothing more than a late season anomaly. Iowa absolutely shredded Illinois last Saturday, rolling to a 63-0 victory. QB Nate Stanley’s streak of three straight games throwing for over 200 yards came to an end, only because of game flow. While the Hawkeyes are known for their defense, they’ve also been involved in their share of shootouts this season, winning 48-31 at Minnesota and losing 30-24 at Penn State and 38-36 at Purdue. Last November, Iowa posted a 56-14 rout of Nebraska. I’m anticipating a more competitive game this time around, and I believe that sets up well for the ‘over’. Take the over (10*). |
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