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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +7 | Top | 24-17 | Push | 0 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bills continue to get no respect in the betting marketplace, even after last week's rout of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. Here, I look for Buffalo to keep things close at the very least, and quite possibly win outright. Motivation will obviously be high for the Bills, not only are they hosting this year's 'it' team in the Ravens, but they'll have Doug Flutie making a rare appearance in Orchard Park to be honored as a Bills legend. Last week, Baltimore was able to overmatch the 49ers at home in a bad weather game, in an early start no less. The shoe is on the other foot this time around. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-06-19 | Lakers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 136-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. At the surface, this may have appeared to be one of the more obvious wins on the Lakers current road trip but now that they've gotten off to a 2-0 start with impressive wins in Denver and Salt Lake City, I believe this is a tricky spot for Lebron James and co. The Blazers are still a losing team on the season but they've been playing better basketball lately, checking in fifth in the league in offensive rating and top 10 in pace rating over their last five games. Their defensive play leaves something to be desired but the Lakers are certainly in a tough spot here, playing for the third time in four nights off back-to-back games in altitude. I'lll grab all the points I can get with the Blazers here. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-01-19 | Jets -3 v. Bengals | Top | 6-22 | Loss | -106 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets are in excellent position to add to the winless Bengals' misery on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The New York offense has been quietly racking up points in recent weeks and is an absolute smash spot against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday. Cincinnati has been one of the worst teams in the league defending the run this season which really opens things up with the Jets offense and RB Le'Veon Bell in particular. Jets QB Sam Darnold is on a redemption tour after a brutal start to the season and he's in line for another big performance here. Meanwhile, the Jets quietly own the league's best run defense which should severely limit what the Bengals can do offensively. QB Andy Dalton is back as the starter and while he may give Cincinnati a bit of a spark, I'm not sure it really matters at this point. His supporting cast is seriously lacking with WR Tyler Boyd one of the only bright spots. RB Joe Mixon has had a nice run the last couple of games but I don't expect him to play a big role in this one. Take New York (10*). |
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. The Saints had a tough time pulling away from the Panthers on Sunday but ultimately did secure the victory thanks in large part to miscues in Carolina’s kicking game. I expect a much cleaner performance from the Saints this week as they travel to face the division rival Falcons in the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. I like the way the Saints offense has rounded into form with a healthy Drew Brees. There’s reason to believe they can even improve on their recent strong performances with Alvin Kamara in particular in line for a big breakout performance here. Meanwhile, the cupboard is getting pretty bare for the Falcons offense with a number of key cogs banged-up and now forced to play on a short week. The Saints have been able to generate a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and I’m confident they’ll be able to force Falcons QB Matt Ryan into some key mistakes in this contest as well. Atlanta’s ground game is by no means imposing with RB Devonta Freeman once again questionable to suit up. I don’t think there’s any question the offense is missing the likes of Mohamed Sanu and Tevin Coleman right now. I’m not convinced Atlanta can stay in this game for four quarters. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is being pegged as a potential shootout based on the total we're working with but I don't expect this non-conference affair to play out that way on the field. The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match their last two performances, in which they scored 49 and 41 points against far inferior defenses in the Bengals and Texans. The Rams defense does match up well with the Ravens dynamic offense as they allow just 3.5 yards per rush this season and don't give up a lot of big passing plays downfield. Baltimore and QB Lamar Jackson in particular is certainly in line for a 'come back to Earth' game as it travels across the country for this primetime affair. On the flip side, there's little reason to have a lot of confidence in the Rams offense at this point. This is a unit that has underachieved due to injuries and otherwise all season long and that's unlikely to change against an underrated Ravens defense. Baltimore will give up yardage on the ground but I'm not convinced Los Angeles will be able to take full advantage. The Ravens have been generating a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have a shutdown tandem in the secondary capable of containing the likes of Kupp, Woods and Cooks. Take the under (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -5.5 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Dallas bounced back with a win in Detroit last Sunday but it will find the going a lot tougher as it stays on the road to face the Patriots in Foxborough this week. Poor weather conditions are expected, which doesn't generally suit QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense well. While Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott draws a favorable matchup on paper, I feel the Pats will be content to concede yardage on the ground once again, but ultimately do another nice job of keeping the opposition out of the end zone. Offensively, the Pats are banged-up right now but the 'next man up' philosophy has always served them well, and I expect no different here. The Cowboys defense, while elite on paper, has disappointed for much of the campaign, including last week when it allowed Lions backup QB Jeff Driskel to move the football up and down the field. New England QB Tom Brady isn't 100% healthy but I'm anticipating a big performance from the GOAT once again. This is precisely the type of game Bill Bellichick's Patriots get up for and win by margin. Take New England (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 1 pm et on Sunday. With Denver nearly pulling off an outright upset as a double-digit underdog at Minnesota last week, it's understandable that the Broncos are only a short underdog against the Bills on Sunday. I believe the Bills are once again undervalued. There's little chance we'll see Buffalo overlook Denver, not after the Broncos gave the Vikings such a serious run last week. I don't like the scheduling spot at all for Denver as it stays on the road for a second straight week, heading to a less than appealing destination in Buffalo. The Bills defense should absolutely feast on the Broncos leaky offensive line, noting that Denver ranks bottom-five in the league in sacks per QB dropback allowed. For their part, the Bills are inside the top 10 in terms of sacks this season. QB Brandon Allen has held his own to this point, but I look for him to get exposed by Buffalo here. This isn't exactly an eruption spot for the Bills offense against a quality Broncos defense, but I do think we'll see them be given enough short fields to inflict some damage on the scoreboard. Based on how I expect the Bills defense to perform in this game, I really don't think we're going to need a whole lot from the offense to ultimately stretch out the margin and put this one out of reach. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday. We're being given a favorable total here thanks to the Eagles low-scoring result in poor weather conditions at home against a suddenly punchless Patriots offense last week. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as the Seahawks roll into the Linc to face the Eagles. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson should enjoy a ton of success against a very beatable Eagles secondary in this one. I continue to profess that Seattle's wide receiver duo (and now trio) of Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon is one of the most underappreciated units in the entire NFL. Also look for Seahawks RB Chris Carson to get involved heavily in the passing game in this one as the Eagles have had no success defending opponent's short passing attacks this season. On the flip side, likely forced into comeback mode for much of this game, I do expect a big game from Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The Philadelphia wide receiving corps is undermanned right now but it can involve the running backs and certain the tight ends, who draw a favorable matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M v. Georgia -13 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
CFB SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Georgia has quietly strung together four straight quality wins, allowing a grand total of just 31 points in the process, since suffering that stunning home loss to South Carolina back on October 12th. Here, I believe the Bulldogs are in a smash spot against Texas A&M. The Aggies are off to a 7-3 start but they've certainly struggled when stepping up in class this season, going winless against the likes of Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. This is another big step-up spot and I look for them to struggle once again. The Aggies will undoubtedly need more from QB Kellen Mond in this one as Georgia will focus on shutting down A&M's vaunted ground attack. Note that Mond hasn't thrown for over 300 yards since September. Georgia's offense hasn't had to be great over the last month or so but I'm confident it can rise to the occasion when needed in this game, which features a relatively low total. Bulldogs QB Jake Fromm completed only 13 passes and threw for just 110 yards in last week's win over Auburn. That was on the road against a better defense than he'll face here, however. Expect a strong bounce-back performance. Take Georgia (10*). |
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11-23-19 | Liberty v. Virginia -16 | Top | 27-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday. While the Cavaliers defense stood out early in the season it has been their offense that has really taken off over the last couple of weeks with QB Bryce Perkins rounding into form, RB Wayne Taulapapa remaining a touchdown-machine and WR Terrell Jana developing into a gamebreaker over the last few games. Upstart Liberty has already gained Bowl eligibility but it will be hard-pressed to even stay competitive in this one. While Liberty has won six games, it has also shown some inconsistency, giving up 40+ points against FCS squad Maine and losing outright to lowly Rutgers. After traveling to Provo for a loss to BYU last week, now they stay on the road for a fourth consecutive game - a stretch that has taken the Flames all over the map. I don't think there's any chance Virginia overlooks Liberty here, not after almost suffering an upset loss at the hands of an improving Georgia Tech squad (we won with Georgia Tech on Thursday) last week. Take Virginia (10*). |
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11-21-19 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -1 | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech minus the points over N.C. State at 8 pm et on Thursday. N.C. State may own the better overall record, but its a dead heat between these two struggling squads from an ATS perspective with both checking in at a miserable 2-8. I simply feel that the Yellow Jackets have a lot more upside at this point of the season and should defend their home field successfully on Thursday night in Atlanta. N.C. State has lost four games in a row both SU and ATS with its last victory coming in an ugly 16-10 affair against a disappointing Syracuse squad way back on October 10th. The Wolfpack's only other win over the course of their current 2-6 slide came in a non-cover against Ball State. Even though Georgia Tech is coming off a 45-0 drubbing at the hands of Virginia Tech, it hasn't given up on the season, as evidenced by its 2-2 ATS record over its last four games, including a stunning overtime win at Miami and a narrow five-point loss at Virginia. I expect a strong bounce-back from the Jackets here in what is essentially their last shot at a victory this season before taking on Georgia in their annual regular season finale. Take Georgia Tech (10*). |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Northern Illinois' 31-28 win over Toledo last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday night as the Huskies return home to host Eastern Michigan. I did like what I saw from the Huskies defense for the first three quarters in that game anyway. Northern Illinois allowed a touchdown with just under six minutes remaining in the first quarter against Toledo but then didn't give up any more points until a minute into the fourth quarter. The Huskies know they can't become complacent defensively in this one after giving up 21 fourth quarter points before kicking a game-winning field goal in the closing seconds last week. Eastern Michigan will certainly be up for this one, knowing that a win would make it Bowl eligible with a game to spare. Note that Northern Illinois has scored 24 points or less in six of 10 games this season. The Huskies put up 26 points the last time they faced the Eagles last season, but that was a stronger NIU squad that won eight games. Take the under (10*). |
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11-19-19 | Islanders +111 v. Penguins | Top | 5-4 | Win | 111 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. There have been times where the Penguins have actually had more success with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin sidelined and right now Crosby is on the shelf (and the Pens are fresh off a 6-1 dismantling of the Maple Leafs on Saturday night). Here, however, I believe there is a class difference that is not being properly reflected in this line. The Islanders are red hot, but have some unfinished business here with their most recent loss coming at the hands of Pittsburgh (in overtime). While the Pens are dealing with a number of key injuries, the Isles are relatively healthy nearly two months into the season. This will only be New York's second game in the last six days so it does come in well-rested as well, having made the short trip from Philadelphia on Saturday. For the Penguins, this marks their third game in the last five days. Take New York (10*). |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark (barely) with the Chargers last week as they fell by just two points in Oakland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Los Angeles here, however, even if this does appear to be an even tougher matchup. First of all, I'm not sure it actually is a tougher matchup. The Raiders are far better than anyone could have anticipated and last week the Chargers found that out first hand. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs don't possess a quality defense. Nor does Kansas City have a consistently productive ground attack. QB Patrick Mahomes returned from injury and looked very 'Mahomes-like' in last week's narrow loss in Tennessee, throwing for a season-high as far as pass yards goes. I simply feel that the Chargers, with their excellent offensive balance led by the re-emergence of RB Melvin Gordon, can go blow-for-blow with Andy Reid's Chiefs, just as they did in their most recent meeting last season - a wild 29-28 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on a Thursday night in December. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 50.5 | Top | 16-36 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Hamilton at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both regular season meetings between these two teams went 'over' the posted total we're dealing with on Sunday and the Eskimos are coming off a wild, high-scoring 37-29 win over Montreal last week to earn a spot in this Grey Cup semi-final matchup. I'll gladly take the contrarian route, however, and call for a lower-scoring game than expected as the Eskimos and Tiger-Cats do battle on Sunday afternoon in Hamilton. Eskimos QB Trevor Harris has appeared in just two games since the first week of September but certainly looked to be in excellent form in last week's win over the Alouettes. He was afforded a clean pocket for much of the afternoon and took full advantage, completing 36-of-39 passes for 421 yards and a touchdown. The fact that he was only able to throw one touchdown was telling, however, as the Eskimos have struggled to finish drives with 7's on the board for much of the season. Here, look for Harris to be under duress all afternoon long as the Esks take a big step up in class against the Ti-Cats defense. Hamilton QB Dane Evans has done a tremendous job leading the offense since taking over the starting job for an injured Jeremiah Masoli, but I do wonder how he'll handle the big stage on Sunday. Note that the Eskimos defense will be getting their third look at Evans since September 20th. Take the under (10*). |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 49.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it in on Sunday afternoon. The Saints got caught looking right past the Falcons last week as they could muster only nine points in a blowout loss, at home no less. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense should absolutely ether a weak Bucs defense. WR Michael Thomas has quietly been putting together a record-setting campaign and he should go off in this particular matchup. Meanwhile, the Saints defense is dealing with a number of key absences right now, the least of which being CB Marshon Lattimore, who would have likely shadowed Bucs standout WR Mike Evans. The New Orleans defense simply hasn't lived up to expectations this season and could be in for another rough ride against an increasingly aggressive Bucs offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-19 | Troy -6.5 v. Texas State | Top | 63-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Troy minus the points over Texas State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Troy has its work cut out for it in order to gain Bowl eligibility this season but it all starts with this very winnable game against Texas State. With the Trojans highly-unlikely to beat both Louisiana-Lafayette and Appalachian State over their final two games, this almost becomes a must-win. I'm confident we'll see the Trojans perform accordingly. If you follow my plays regularly, you know that I'm not very high on Texas State, even though it has shown up and battled on occasion this season, even managing to win three games outright. I still believe the Bobcats have one of the weakest offenses in the entire FBS. They did score 30 points in a win last week, but that came against lowly South Alabama (1-8). Troy possesses a far more dynamic offense with QB Kaleb Barker having thrown for over 300 yards on five different occasions, while tossing at least two touchdown passes in eight of nine games this season. RB DK Billingsley has made the most of relatively limited touches, rushing for over 100 yards on four different occasions. He's coming off his best performance of the season last time out, running for 163 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries. The Trojans defense leaves a lot to be desired but I'm not convinced Texas State will be able to take full advantage. Take Troy (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Celtics -7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Golden State at 10:35 pm et on Friday. This is the start of a five-game western road swing for the Celtics as they look to extend their winning streak to 10 games and I'm confident we'll see them do so in convincing fashion on Friday night. Note that Boston ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games, and by a considerable margin. Golden State on the other hand sits 28th over that same stretch. Really the only thing the Warriors have going for them right now is the fact that they've been pushing the tempo, sitting 12th in pace rating over their last five contests, but that should only open the door for the Celtics to really get loose offensively. Boston is in the top half of the league in defensive rating over its last five games while Golden State is just one spot shy of pulling up the rear, sitting 29th in that department. Take Boston (10*). |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall UNDER 55 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana Tech and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. Louisiana Tech has been absolutely mowing down the competition in C-USA play, but has also faced an extremely light schedule recently. Since the start of October, the Bulldogs have gone bye week, UMass, Southern Miss, UTEP and North Texas. Those four opponents represent four of the weakest defensive teams in the country. While the Bulldogs have absolutely scored at will over the last month, this is the same team that was held to 20 points against Grambling State and put up only 23 points at Rice. Marshall isn't likely to blow the doors off of Louisiana Tech here, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers are calling for. The Thundering Herd were in an absolute smash spot offensively last time out against Rice, but could only muster 20 points. QB Isaiah Green has proven to be a game manager more than anything else, throwing for fewer than 270 yards in all but one game this season, while managing more than single touchdown pass on just three occasions. Take the under (10*). |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I have no confidence in the Browns to string together consecutive wins at this stage of the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers have found their identity as a hard-nosed team that runs the football and plays an aggressive, opportunistic brand of defense. Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph certainly doesn't instill a great deal of confidence, but he is expected to have RB James Conner back at his disposal on Thursday night and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is in line for a big breakout performance against a Browns defense that has had no success defending receivers in the slot. The Browns have a quality defense and should be able to get after Rudolph in this one, but what about their offense? It's been a sputtering, turnover-prone unit and while RB Kareem Hunt gave them a boost in his debut, I'm not ready to say that the offense is back. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-10-19 | Giants v. Jets +3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on the Jets plus the points over the Giants at 1 pm et on Sunday. Things literally can't get any worse for the Jets after they lost at the hands of the winless, supposedly taking Dolphins last week in Miami. I fully expect to see Gang Green bounce back against the rival Giants on Sunday, noting we cashed a ticket fading Big Blue just this past Monday night with the Cowboys. This is an absolute smash spot for the Jets offense against a vulnerable Giants defense playing on a short week. Jets QB Sam Darnold has not played well at all but I still believe he has the tools to succeed in the NFL and I'm confident he'll enjoy a breakout performance against the G-Men and their non-existent pass rush and swiss cheese secondary. Not only is Darnold and the Jets passing game in line for a bounce-back but we should see a big performance from RB Le'Veon Bell as well. Game script kept him from exploding against the Dolphins last Sunday but if the Jets are able to build a lead here, Bell should go off. Take the Jets (10*). |
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11-09-19 | UTSA v. Old Dominion UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UTSA and Old Dominion at 2 pm et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. The UTSA defense hasn't been performing well lately but has also faced the likes of UAB and Texas A&M in two of its last three games. Here, it takes a big step down in class against a punchless Old Dominion offense. The Monarchs battled hard but ultimately fell a touchdown short in a 24-17 setback at Florida International last week. ODU has now been held to 17 points or less in five consecutive games. The Monarchs haven't always been stout defensively this season but catch a favorable matchup against a banged-up and talent-shy Roadrunners offense. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -123 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Chargers have suddenly found their footing, registering back-to-back wins at Chicago and at home against Green Bay and I look for them to keep it rolling as they face the rival Raiders in Oakland on Thursday night. I really like the way things have come together for the previously underachieving Chargers offense, most notably with RB Melvin Gordon busting out with a big performance against the Packers last Sunday. The door is wide open for this unit to really explode against a beatable Raiders defense on a short week. Oakland does pose a challenge with its own emerging offense but I'm confident the Chargers defense will rise to the occasion. RB Josh Jacobs is the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year but the offense can still only go as far as QB Derek Carr takes it as far as I'm concerned. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Jets right now but this is a true 'get right' spot against the tanking Dolphins in Miami, and I look for Adam Gase's squad to take full advantage. I absolutely love the 'squeaky wheel' narrative with elite RB Le'Veon Bell calling for more work in advance of Sunday's matchup. Bell will undoubtedly get fed in this one and should absolutely dominate a non-existent Dolphins run defense. QB Sam Darnold has been ridiculed after his 'seeing ghosts' appearance on Monday Night Football but he should have no trouble carving up the Fins struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Jets defense is serviceable against the Miami offense - which took another step back in a miserable second half in Pittsburgh on Monday night. Take New York (10*). |
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11-02-19 | Old Dominion v. Florida International -17.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
CFB C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Old Dominion at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the bounce back spot for FIU here as it returns home following a beatdown at the hands of Middle Tennessee State last week. The loss dropped the Panthers to 4-4 on the season but they remain very much in contention for a Bowl game. That certainly depends on getting a win here, and I’m confident we’ll see them secure the victory in convincing fashion. At 1-7, Old Dominion is a true doormat this season. The Monarchs lone victory came back in August against FCS squad Norfolk State. They check into this one having scored just one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters of football. FIU has certainly shown blowout potential here at home this season, where it owns victories by 13, 44, 25 and 15-point margins, its lone home loss coming against a quality opponent in Western Kentucky – a game in which it covered the spread. Note that Panthers QB James Morgan has been quietly efficient, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. Meanwhile, RB Anthony Jones has rushed for 421 yards on just 72 carries, while finding the end zone five times over that same stretch. The Panthers are heavily favored for a reason in this early start matchup. I’ll lay the points. Take Florida International (10*). |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Connecticut at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in Navy's high-scoring win over Tulane last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Midshipmen hit the road to face lowly UConn on a short week. Last week's high-scoring result was certainly game script dependent as Tulane simply couldn't stop the Navy offense early on, digging a 24-0 hole just five minutes into the second quarter. From there things really opened up. I expect a different story to unfold here. Connecticut stunningly put up 56 points in a win at UMass last week but will face a much tougher challenge here. Note that prior to last week's performance, the Huskies had scored 22 points or less in five straight games and had topped out at 24 points, that coming in a season-opening win over FCS squad Wagner. Take the under (10*). |
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10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans -6 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Raiders are in a really tough spot here, still on the road at the tail-end of what has been an excruciatingly long stretch of games away from home and coming off an epic beatdown at the hands of the Packers last Sunday. Things don't figure to get any easier in Houston on Sunday as the Texans enter a terrific bounce-back spot off last week's divisional loss in Indianapolis. QB DeShaun Watson and the Texans offense should have a field day against the Raiders undermanned defense, which dealt top CB Gareon Conley to Houston earlier in the week. The Raiders haven't exactly waved the white flag just yet, but at 3-3 the time is coming. Offensively, Oakland has been better than expected but with RB Josh Jacobs limited and possibly even sidelined by a shoulder injury, it will be in a really difficult situation here. Jacobs has been a dynamic playmaker but the Raiders don't have much depth in the backfield. While I'm not all that high on the Texans defense, I do think they'll be playing from ahead for much of the day on Sunday, and can gameplan aggressively against mistake-prone QB Derek Carr. Look for Houston to eventually stretch out the margin in this one. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Jets are coming off a dreadful performance on both sides of the football on Monday night against the Patriots. I do feel they'll bounce back here, however, as they head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. The Jags defense has been exploited by opposing running backs this season as they check in allowing just shy of five yards per rush. Off a poor offensive showing on Monday, look for the Jets to feed RB Le'Veon Bell in this one. On the flip side, the Jets defense has been exceptional against the run, allowing just north of 3.2 yards per rush. That should severely limit what the Jags are able to do offensively, as despite all the Gardner Minshew hype, QB Leonard Fournette has been, and will continue to be the key to their offense. Take New York (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Texas State v. Arkansas State -11 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas State minus the points over Texas State at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas State has somewhat surprisingly held its own in most games this season but still checks in sporting a 2-4 record. Arkansas State has been up and down and comes into this one off of back-to-back losses. Notably, last week’s 17-point loss on paper could have really gone either away as Louisiana-Lafayette pulled away with a couple of late touchdowns. I do still feel the Red Wolves are one of the better teams in the Sun Belt and if they have their sights set on Bowl eligibility, this is a game they need to get. I expect them to win this one comfortably. QB Layne Hatcher has thrown for 10 touchdowns over his last game and last week we saw RB Marcel Murray carry a full workload, running 35 times for 164 yards while adding three catches. Texas State QB Gresch Jensen suffered a concussion last week and the Bobcats top rusher Caleb Twyford is actually a wide receiver that has run for more than 78 yards only once this season. Arkansas State took this matchup 33-7 last season and I’m anticipating another blowout here. Take Arkansas State (10*). |
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10-26-19 | Tulane v. Navy UNDER 58 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tulane and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams combined to score 57 points in last year’s matchup – a narrow one-point Green Wave victory. I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair this time around. Tulane is fresh off a beatdown at the hands of Memphis last week. The Green Wave are certainly a better defensive team than they showed in that contest. Memphis went into that one highly-motivated after suffering its first loss of the season the week previous at Temple. Navy has been rolling along, scoring a whopping 114 points over the course of its current three-game winning streak. Keep in mind, those wins came against Air Force, Tulsa and South Florida. Just two weeks ago Tulane gave up only seven points in a blowout win over Connecticut, allowing the Huskies to gain just 134 yards through the air and less than 100 on the ground. This is obviously a much tougher matchup but my point is, the Green Wave are capable of stiffening up defensively. Remember, earlier this season they gave up just 24 points on the road against Auburn, holding the Tigers off the scoreboard for the entire first quarter and giving up just a single touchdown in the second half. Navy’s lone defeat this season came at the hands of aforementioned Memphis. After allowing a touchdown with just under 10 minutes left in the first quarter, the Middies didn’t give up another offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-19 | USC -11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on USC minus the points over Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday. The USC Trojans are dealing with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football but that's certainly been factored into this line. I like the upside of the Trojans offense as they head to Boulder to face an awful Colorado defense. On the flip side, the Buffaloes offense has disappointed this season - the duo of QB Steven Montez and WR Laviska Shenault Jr. in particular. The Trojans 'next man up' philosophy on defense has served them well and I believe this is another matchup they can handle. Note that Colorado has scored just 13 points in its last two games. Even when the Buffaloes did put up 30 points in a losing effort against Arizona three weeks ago they still didn't manage to find the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half and failed to score a touchdown over the game's critical final 20 minutes. USC rode a big game from freshman RB Kenan Christon last week as he ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns on just eight carries. Take USC (10*). |
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. The Patriots offense is certainly banged-up right now with virtually their entire wide receiving corps nursing various ailments. I expect RBs Sony Michel and James White to be the focal point of the offense on Monday night at the Meadowlands, which plays into our hands as the ground game and short passing attack helps keep the clock moving. We can count on Bill Bellichick and more specifically CB Stephon Gilmore to take away the Jets best weapon through the air, that being WR Robby Anderson. New England will likely allow the Jets to pound away with RB Le'Veon Bell, but to limited success. QB Sam Darnold returned with a big game against the Cowboys last week, but look for him to come back to earth against a familiar divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. Take the under (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Eagles as they try to bounce back from last week’s tough loss in Minnesota. Philadelphia continues to perform at an elite level offensively, despite the fact that it has dealt with a number of key injuries at the wide receiver position this season. QB Carson Wentz remains one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league and he’s set to expose an injury-ravaged Cowboys defense on Sunday night. Dallas is coming off back-to-back devastating losses, with the most recent being particular painful at the hands of the lowly Jets. With WR Amari Cooper likely to miss and RB Ezekiel Elliott busy running into piles there’s little reason to have much confidence in the Cowboys offense right now. Head coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat again and I’m not sure that we’ll see the team rally around him this time around. While everyone was singing the praises of Cowboys first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore earlier this season, things have gotten stale in a hurry. Look for the Eagles pass rush to take advantage of the Cowboys injuries on the offensive line (Tyron Smith and La’El Collins are expected to miss) and make life difficult for QB Dak Prescott all night long. The case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This projects as potentially one of the highest-scoring shootouts of the entire season as both offenses come in ready to fully expose the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. The Rams secondary is an absolute mess right now and don’t let their early week acquisition of CB Jalen Ramsey steer you otherwise. Ramsey hasn’t suited up since September and now comes in following a limited week of practice with his new team. His reward will be lining up against Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones who is finally in line for a big breakout performance on Sunday. While the Falcons have been awful in the win-loss column, their offense continues to churn along with QB Matt Ryan posting monster numbers. Nothing changes against the Rams truly disappointing defense this week. On the flip side, we’ve also seen the Rams offense sputter due in large part to the inefficiency of QB Jared Goff, not to mention their offensive line’s inability to pass-protect. That should change here as the Falcons defense has done nothing to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Given a clean pocket I’m confident Goff can tear apart this struggling Falcons defense. After last week’s debacle it’s unlikely the Rams will lean heavily on their ground attack here, instead electing to attack the Atlanta defense through the air. Count on big performances from Kupp, Woods, Cooks et al as this one develops into a back-and-forth shootout. I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-19 | Texans v. Colts | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Texans upset win in Kansas City is still fresh in the minds of bettors while the Colts win on that same field the week previous has been all but forgotten, leading to a favorable line for the home side in this AFC South showdown on Sunday. The bye week came at the right time for Indianapolis as it is expected to have MLB Darius Leonard and WR T.Y. Hilton back at full speed this Sunday. Meanwhile, the Texans defense is in a really tough position with an injury-ravaged secondary, preparing to face Hilton, who has been a real thorn in their side over the years. While I have a lot of confidence in Texans QB DeShaun Watson, not to mention WR DeAndre Hopkins, I have little confidence in anyone else on the Houston offense, nor in play-caller and head coach Bill O’Brien. I simply see this as an excellent spot to fade the Texans off a huge win last week as they head on the road to face a better-coached, and still underrated Colts squad on Sunday afternoon. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Buffalo -17 v. Akron | Top | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Akron at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one has blowout written all over it as a hungry Buffalo squad travels to face winless Akron. The Bulls have faced a tough early season schedule so it’s not surprising that they enter this contest with just two wins to their credit. Things do get easier from here, starting with what should be a layup against the Zips. Look for the Buffalo ground game to really get rolling in this one. Note that last week Akron got torched for 208 rushing yards on 39 attempts by Kent State running back Will Matthews and quarterback Dustin Crum. Buffalo’s tandem of Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson have the potential to improve on those numbers here. Buffalo has shown it has blowout potential having already defeated FCS squad Robert Morris (who I wouldn’t rank far below Akron) 35-10 and Temple 38-22. The Bulls took this matchup by a 24-6 score last season. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-19-19 | TCU v. Kansas State UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Things really got away from TCU in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 49-24 decision on the road against Iowa State. I look for the Horned Frogs to do a much better job of controlling proceedings against Kansas State on Saturday and that lends itself to a much lower-scoring affair. Keep in mind, that game against Iowa State essentially turned on a Cyclones defensive fumble return for a touchdown three minutes into the second quarter. Offensively, TCU has shown flashes of brilliance but those flashes have been few and far between. QB Max Duggan has been inconsistent at best, passing for over 200 yards only once, that coming in comeback mode against Iowa State. There's no question, the Horned Frogs will face a tough challenge in the form of Kansas State's defense on Saturday. After dropping back-to-back conference tilts against Oklahoma State and Baylor, in blowout fashion no less, this is obviously a huge game for the Wildcats. Like TCU, Kansas State's offense has been less than impressive. At home against Baylor, Kansas State didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The good news is, in that same contest, the 'Cats held Baylor out of the end zone until the final seven minutes of the first half. This was a defensive struggle last year with TCU prevailing 14-13. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-19 | Toledo v. Ball State OVER 57 | Top | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Ball State at 2 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as Toledo rolled to a 45-13 win. As the line would indicate, this should be a far more competitive affair, and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring game. Ball State has reeled off back-to-back wins after starting its campaign with a 1-3 record. The Cardinals have already been involved in some shootouts. They can beat you through the air and on the ground with little talked about RB Caleb Huntley absolutely going off over the last two games, rushing for 309 yards on 64 carries. The touchdowns haven't come just yet (he has just five through six games this season) but it's only a matter of time. QB Drew Plitt has been bombing away, attempting at least 32 passes in five of six games to date. He has already tossed 13 touchdowns. The Cardinals will need all of that offense and then some against a Toledo squad that will be in a sour mood after scoring just seven points in a loss at Bowling Green last week. Keep in mind, the Rockets entered that game sporting a 4-1 record, having scored 145 points over the course of a four-game winning streak. Rockets RB Bryant Koback has already ran for at least 177 yards on two different occasions this season and should have a field day against the Ball State defense on Saturday. Toledo admittedly has questions at QB after Mitchell Guadagni suffered an injury last week but it's not as if he's been setting the MAC on fire. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Syracuse at 7 pm et on Friday. Most are expecting a shootout in this Friday night ACC tilt but I'm looking for a different story to unfold at the Carrier Dome. Pittsburgh is coming off a wild, high-scoring 33-30 win at Duke last time out. Keep in mind, the Panthers built a huge 26-3 lead in that contest and actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter. They sagged late and let the Blue Devils stage a furious rally, even giving up the lead in the fourth quarter before securing the win with a late touchdown. That should only amp up their concentration on the defensive side of the football in this one, and I see this as a manageable matchup against an inconsistent Syracuse offense. Note that earlier this season, Pitt didn't give up a touchdown against a powerful UCF offense until the final five minutes of the first half. Syracuse is coming off a tough 16-10 loss at N.C. State last week. The Orange are off to a frustrating 3-3 start. QB Tommy DeVito has looked terrific at times but has been far too inconsistent. 11 of his 12 touchdown passes have come in three games and he has also thrown five interceptions. Syracuse's ground attack has been equally inconsistent. Take the under (10*). |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. When these two teams met on this field last October we saw the total settle out around 54 points. That game failed to eclipse that number but here I look for a different story to unfold, at a more favorable number for ‘over’ bettors. The Chiefs defense is a mess. They’re allowing well north of five yards per rush this season, which sets up especially well for the Broncos two-headed backfield attack featuring Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The Broncos won’t shy away from pounding the football in an effort to chew up the clock and effectively shorten this game, but I’m confident they’ll break off enough big runs to finish drives with touchdowns on the board. Given the Chiefs highly disappointing and virtually non-existent pass rush, oft-criticized Denver QB Joe Flacco should be able to find some success through the air in this one as well. Kansas City obviously possesses an elite offense, even if it isn’t going to match the numbers it put up during an incredible 2018 campaign. This is an admittedly tough matchup against a quality Broncos defense but off back-to-back losses, you can be sure the Chiefs offense will come out swinging and WR Tyreek Hill certainly looked no worse for wear in his first game back from injury last Sunday. Bettors are very hesitant to play the ‘over’ in this one due to the Broncos knack for getting involved in low-scoring games but that only serves to give us value with the total being set lower than it should be in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
NFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Green Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Simply put, I'm not sure the Packers are as good as their 4-1 record, or last week's high-scoring win over the Cowboys would seem to indicate. They'll be without WR DaVante Adams again on Monday night and with their defense sagging, I'm not sure they'll be able to get past the Lions without a serious fight. Detroit was written off by most before the season even began, and certainly following an ugly season-opening tie in Arizona. Since then, Detroit has been somewhat inconsistent, but has managed to battle its way to a 2-1-1 mark and can gain ground on the division rival Packers with a win here. I like the way the Lions underrated offense matches up against the Packers suddenly struggling defense and on the flip side, I also think the Detroit defense can give QB Aaron Rodgers some serious heartburn here. RB Aaron Jones went off against the Cowboys last Sunday but don't count on a repeat performance here as Matt LaFleur seems determined to give RB Jamaal Williams his share of touches as well, even if it may be to the detriment of the offense. The Lions have two wins to their credit at Lambeau Field since 2015 so there's no real intimidation factor at play here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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10-13-19 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams were involved in tightly-contested affairs last Sunday and while both games went 'over' the total, neither contest was a shootout. Here, I believe the potential is there for a shootout as the Bengals try to stay competitive, and should have a good shot at doing so against an injury-plagued, and struggling Ravens defense. On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity for the Baltimore offense to run wild against an awful Bengals defense. Teams have absolutely steamrolled Cincinnati on the ground this season and few teams are set up better to do exactly that than the Ravens. QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a good but not great performance in an overtime win over the rival Steelers last Sunday. Look for him to find the going a lot easier in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -10.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. Baylor is one of the nation’s more surprising undefeated teams as we head into mid-October. The Bears are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Iowa State and Kansas State and now have the opportunity to really get rolling before heading on the road for a showdown with Oklahoma State next week. Texas Tech is in a clear letdown spot here as it tries to follow up a surprising 45-35 win over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Red Raiders jumped all over a Cowboys squad that was arguably ‘fat and happy’ off a big win over Kansas State the week previous. Keep in mind, Texas Tech is still playing without starting QB Alan Bowman. Jett Duffey has filled in admirably, not only this season but last year as well, but faces a tall task against a quality Baylor defense here. Just two weeks ago, Duffey was held to 11-of-20 passing for 120 yards and ran the ball seven times for just 16 yards against Oklahoma. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Memphis -5 v. Temple | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for a Memphis team that remains under the radar despite its perfect 5-0 record. The Tigers are coming off a 52-point explosion on the road against Louisiana-Monroe last week. RB Kenneth Gainwell is seemingly getting better with each passing game, racking up well north of 350 rush yards and four touchdowns over his last three contests. The Tigers defense didn’t perform particularly well in last week’s win, but did earn the game-sealing interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. We have seen this unit step up when it has needed to – remember Memphis defeated Ole Miss by a 15-10 score back in Week 1. We suffered a tough backdoor defeat with Temple last week as it won in unimpressive fashion at East Carolina. The Owls are off to a solid 4-1 start this season but only their victory over then-21st ranked Maryland back on September 14th was all that impressive. Their offense seems to be regressing each week and that’s certainly not encouraging as they could very well need to keep up in a shootout here on Saturday. Take Memphis (10*). |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Patriots as a massive road favorite last Sunday in Washington and there’s little reason to jump ship as they return home on a short week to host the injury-riddled Giants on Thursday night. New York is expected to be without arguably its two best offensive players in this one as RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram are sidelined with injuries. That leaves rookie QB Daniel Jones in a really tough position going up against a fierce Patriots defense that should have little trouble exposing the Giants offensive line. Even when Jones does have time in the pocket he’ll have few options to work with down field. Maybe WR Golden Tate goes off in his second game back but I highly doubt it. It’s also worth mentioning that WR Sterling Shepard will miss this game after suffering an ugly concussion last week. Offensively, the Pats should be able to do whatever they want against one of the weakest defenses in the league. New York has had an extremely difficult time slowing down any opposing offense other than the lowly Redskins this season and continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Patriots really didn’t get rolling until the second half against the Redskins last Sunday but still managed to put 30+ points on the board. Expect a sharper performance from Tom Brady and co. here as they roll past the G-Men in Foxborough. Take New England (10*). |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams -9 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as the Rams return home following a business-like 20-13 win in Cleveland last Sunday night. Los Angeles used a supreme defensive effort to hold off a hungry Browns squad in that one but here should be able to get loose offensively, particularly through the air against a struggle Bucs pass defense. On the flip side, I don’t see the Bucs accomplishing much in this one with the Rams outstanding secondary likely to take care of business against the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay’s ground game is a virtual non-factor and playing from behind on Sunday isn’t likely to change that. Look for another dominant performance from the Rams as they remain undefeated with another convincing win. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Fresh off an ugly loss against the rival Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday this is an ideal ‘get right’ spot for the Vikings back home against the Raiders. Oakland got manhandled by the Chiefs in a game that could have been even more lopsided had Kansas City not taken its foot off the gas last week. Now the Raiders have to travel two time zones east for an early 12 noon local start on Sunday afternoon. There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Raiders offense and this is a brutal matchup against what will be a highly-motivated and ultra-talented Vikings defense. Minnesota employs a ‘run-first’ offense to be sure, but that’s fine as RB Dalvin Cook has arguably been the best back in football so far this season. He should have little trouble putting this game away when called upon on Sunday afternoon but before that look for QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back from last week’s no-show in Green Bay with an efficient afternoon under center. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 56.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. We’ve split a couple of totals plays on games involving Houston this season, playing the ‘over’ on both occasions. Here, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Cougars travel to face upstart Tulane. Despite scoring 92 points through three games this season, the Houston offense really hasn’t been all that imposing. In their opener at Oklahoma, the Cougars didn’t find the end zone until less than five minutes were left in the first half. They turned in a terrific stretch of offensive football early against FCS squad Prairie View A&M the next week but didn’t reach the end zone after the game’s first 20 minutes. Last Friday night against Washington State the Cougars put together two touchdown drives in the second quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until there were two minutes left in the fourth quarter. You get the picture. Tulane is coming off a 58-point explosion last week, but that came against FCS squad Missouri State. Note that the Green Wave have yet to have a quarterback throw for more than 200 yards or anyone rush for 100 yards in their first three contests. Tulane has taken care of business against the opponents it should but scored just six points in its lone loss, a 24-6 setback at Tulane two weeks ago. The Green Wave defense has been as good as advertised, giving up just 40 points through three games, including only 24 at the Hands of Auburn. In that game against the Tigers, they held QB Bo Nix to just 19-of-37 passing for 207 yards and limited lead rusher JaTarvious Whitlow to less than 100 yards on the ground. Houston took this matchup in blowout fashion last year, 48-17. I’m anticipating a much tighter affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Chiefs season-opening win in Jacksonville and I won’t hesitate to get involved in their Week 2 game as well, laying the points in this spot. Kansas City looked every bit as dominant offensively as it did a year ago last week against the Jaguars, putting up 40 points without barely breaking a sweat. With that being said, the news wasn’t all good as the Chiefs did lose WR Tyreek Hill to an injury that will cost him at least a month of action. It’s obviously not the end of the world, however, as Kansas City is by no means short on offensive depth. WR Sammy Watkins turned in one of the best performances of Week 1 and now it might just be rookie WR Mecole Hardman’s turn to bust out. Regardless how the Chiefs choose to attack the Raiders defense, I’m confident they’ll have plenty of success, noting that they scored 75 points in two meetings with Oakland last season. The Raiders are coming off a win but I certainly didn’t come away overly impressed as they were essentially handed that game by the Broncos, who simply didn’t show up. QB Derek Carr was efficient in the win but again relied on a slow-paced, conservative offensive gameplan – something that simply isn’t going to translate success against a Chiefs squad that can seemingly score at will. Oakland’s Monday night victory was probably the best thing we could have hoped for as it helps to keep this line in check. The Chiefs have blowout potential most weeks and this one is no exception. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +4 v. Colorado | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Colorado at 1 pm et on Saturday. Air Force got a nice tune-up for this game last week as it rolled to a 48-7 win over Colgate in its season-opener. Not surprisingly, an offense that returns most of the talent from last year’s squad put together a touchdown drive just over four minutes into the game and then added four more in the second quarter. The Falcons held Colgate off the scoreboard entirely until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Colorado pulled a minor upset of Nebraska at home last week, rallying back from a 17-0 halftime deficit. I can’t help but feel a letdown could be in order here, however. Note that the Buffaloes didn’t find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that game and then things essentially turned on a complete defensive breakdown by Nebraska in the first minute of the fourth quarter, as K.D. Nixon hauled in a 96-yard touchdown pass. The Falcons were awful against the pass last season but do return experience in the secondary and they’ll certainly be on guard against the Buffaloes strength, which is their passing game, in this one. Take Air Force (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State OVER 52 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas State and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State has feasted on a couple of inferior opponents to open the season, rolling to a 49-14 win over Nicholls State and a 52-0 shutout of Bowling Green. I like the way the Wildcats have gotten off to extremely fast starts, putting together five scoring drives in the first quarter of their first two games, including four offensive touchdowns. That’s certainly a promising start following a dismal offensive campaign a year ago. Ball State transfer RB James Gilbert has been a bright spot, racking up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. QB Skylar Thompson, albeit against inferior opposition, has seemingly found some rhythm, completing 26-of-35 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Wildcats face a tougher test in SEC opponent Mississippi State, but I do think Kansas State can still keep it rolling offensively. Note that in the Bulldogs toughest test to date, they allowed 28 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Last week they gave up only 15 points against Southern Miss, and none until less than five minutes were left in the third quarter but it is worth noting that the Eagles drove into Mississippi State territory in two of their first three drives, missing a field goal on one and giving up a fumble on another. Once the Bulldogs build a sizable lead Southern Miss completed abandoned its gameplan and couldn’t get anything more going on offense. Here, I’m obviously anticipating a more competitive affair and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring game between two offenses that have been very efficient in the early going. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Wake Forest at 6 pm et on Friday. Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games (and ‘over’ results) to open the season but I look for this particular contest to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. The Demon Deacons have played two below-average defensive teams in their first two games, Utah State and Rice. Their offense has certainly clicked, putting up a whopping 79 points already but here they’ll face a tougher test in the form of 2-0 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have allowed just 45 points through two games against South Carolina and Miami, so it’s not as if they’ve played FCS pushovers. Against the Gamecocks, UNC gave up a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the first quarter but then held them out of the end zone until there was just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Last week, the Tar Heels didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final 25 seconds of the first half against Miami. On the flip side, the Demon Deacons defense has been up and down but did settle in last week (admittedly after Rice lost its starting quarterback to injury), holding the Owls scoreless in the second and third quarters before allowing a garbage time touchdown once the game was out of hand in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With North Carolina playing on a short week off back-to-back tightly-contested victories, I don’t think it will have any interest in getting involved in a shootout here. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell has attempted exactly 24 passes in each of the first two games. North Carolina has proven capable of controlling the clock by moving the football on the ground and I’m anticipating a similar gameplan here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This really is the start of a new era for the Pittsburgh Steelers with both RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown join new teams in the offseason. It's a fresh start for the franchise as far as I'm concerned and while they've certainly struggled here in New England over the years, I am confident they can give the Patriots all they can handle to open the 2019 season. With WR JuJu Smith-Schuster being shadowed by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore I expect the Steelers offense to center around RB James Conner in this game. He was used sparingly in the preseason but looked even stronger than he did during his breakout campaign in the absence of Bell last year. The Patriots certainly aren't immune to slow starts (remember they lost their home opener against the Chiefs following their Super Bowl win two years ago). I'm high on the Steelers defense entering this season and look for them to give Tom Brady some headaches on Sunday night. It's worth noting that New England's usually rock solid offensive line has suffered a couple of key losses and will have its work cut out for it trying to keep the Steelers vaunted pass rush at bay. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Texas A&M v. Clemson -17 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Clemson in its rout of Georgia Tech last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the Tigers again in a tougher matchup (on paper) against Texas A&M this Saturday. It wasn’t a completely clean effort from the Tigers last week by any means, yet they still managed to win by a 38-point margin. I certainly expect QB Trevor Lawrence to be sharper after completing just 13-of-23 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns a week ago. The Aggies will undoubtedly have Clemson’s full attention after the Tigers narrowly escaped with a 28-26 win in last year’s meeting. Last week, Texas A&M rolled to a 41-7 win after jumping ahead 28-0 at halftime but that was against one of the worst teams in FBS in Texas State. With experienced QB Kellen Mond leading a tremendous offense I think the Aggies will get baited into a shootout here, but I don’t believe that serves them well. I ultimately expect the Tigers defense to pin back its ears and get after Mond while its offense does the rest, as it cruises to a comfortable victory. Take Clemson (10*). |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with Boise State but missed with the 'under' in the Broncos come-from-behind win over Florida State in what turned out to be a true road game due to Hurricane Dorian last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on the total here as Boise welcomes C-USA opponent Marshall on Friday night. All indications are that the Broncos have no interest in getting involved in another wild, high-scoring shootout here. Head coach Brian Harsin has been emphasizing tackling, ball security and field position in advance of this game (which will be played on a short week after that grueling affair in Tallahassee). It's worth noting that despite allowing 31 points against the Seminoles, Boise State did show the ability to play sound defense for an extended stretch, holding a better offense than they'll face on Friday scoreless over the game's final 34 minutes. Offensively, the Broncos didn't find the end zone in that game until there were just over four minutes left in the first half. Marshall put up 56 points in a blowout win last week, but that came at home against FCS squad VMI. I'll also point out that the Thundering Herd didn't score a touchdown in that game until just over three minutes remaining in the first quarter. The game essentially turned on a punt return touchdown less than two minutes later. From there, the floodgates opened. I certainly don't expect the Broncos defense to wilt the same way the Keydets' did last week. Credit the Marshall defense to limiting VMI to only 201 passing yards last week, not easing off even after building the insurmountable lead early. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions weather-wise and a matchup of two veteran starters winding down their careers and not pitching particularly well, I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. Felix Hernandez will take the ball for Seattle. He has made two starts since returning from injury, giving up eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs, in only 10 2/3 innings of work. He sports an ERA north of six and a 1.42 WHIP in limited action this season. Jon Lester counters for Chicago. He owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and comes into this one in wildly inconsistent form having allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Mixed in that stretch was a home start against Oakland in which he gave up 10 hits and 11 runs, nine of them earned, over just four innings right here at home. Count on plenty of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night in the Windy City. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month. My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It's another hyped-up Pac-12 vs. SEC matchup as Oregon looks to stage the upset against Auburn on Saturday night. I wouldn't count on that happening, however. The Ducks have the projected first quarterback to be taken in the 2020 NFL Draft in Justin Herbert. With that being said, he'll be facing a major challenge here in an Auburn defense that is once again loaded with talent. I actually think it will be the Auburn offense that really shines in this matchup, however. The Tigers offensive line boasts five seniors and that should make all the difference in the world for an offense that sputtered in 2018. QB Jarrett Stidham is now a New England Patriot, and the Tigers will go with true freshman Bo Nix as their starter. Head coach Gus Malzahn has indicated that he won't hold anything back in the playbook with Nix at the helm, and I tend to believe him. Nix walks into an ideal situation with a loaded backfield, not to mention a hungry and talented wide receiver corps. The matchup is fine as the Ducks are certainly beatable defensively. The question will be whether the Tigers defense can weather the early storm and ultimately take control of this game. I believe they can and will and just like last year, we'll open our season with a big winner on Auburn. Take Auburn (10*). |
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08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series produced a 1-1-1 o/u mark just last week in Minnesota but we did cash the lone 'over' result - a game that produced a whopping 18 runs. Michael Pineda was on the hill for the Twins in that game and he'll take the ball for them again tonight. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged just shy of 11 total runs per game this season. The White Sox will be getting their fourth look at Pineda this season and had their best game against him last week, plating four earned runs in seven innings in that aforementioned 14-4 loss. Lucas Giolito tossed a rare complete game shutout against the Twins last week. There's really not a lot negative I can write about the White Sox ace. I will point out, however, that the Twins will be seeing him for the fourth time since June 30th and have had some previous success against him. The last time they faced him here in Chicago they racked up seven earned runs in five innings in a 10-3 victory. Minnesota also scored seven earned runs off of Giolito in his final start against them last season. Note that the Twins average well north of six runs per game on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans OVER 40 | Top | 18-6 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
NFLX Sunday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Pittsburgh and Tennessee at 8 pm et on Sunday. We came up just short with our ‘over’ play in the Titans loss to the Patriots last Saturday (we won with New England in that game) but I feel the same play is warranted as they stay home to host the Steelers this week. The Titans offense looked terrific early in that game against New England, scoring a pair of first half touchdowns. That was encouraging when you consider the Patriots have put a strong emphasis on taking care of business on the road this August after going 3-5 away from home last regular season. I’m confident the Titans offense can be efficient and effective once again here. The Steelers haven’t exactly unleashed their offense in the preseason with QB Ben Roethlisberger and others having yet to see a single snap. I do expect them to open things up a little more here, however, as they try to gain some rhythm before all of the regular starters likely sit in their preseason finale next week. It’s worth noting that QB Mason Rudolph has done a nice job as he battles for the backup job, completing 15-of-23 passes for just shy of 170 yards and two touchdowns through two games. Even Devlin Hodges has gotten in on the action, throwing touchdown passes in each of the Steelers first two games. Take the over (10*). |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto UNDER 55 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Toronto at 12 noon et on Sunday. I really like the way this total sets up as the Alouettes and Argos do battle in a neutral site game in Moncton, New Brunswick Canada on Sunday. The Als are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Calgary last week, ultimately pulling out a 40-34 win in overtime. Keep in mind, Montreal didn't score a touchdown until the third quarter in that game and ultimately scored just two offensive touchdowns in regulation time. In its three previous games it had scored a grand total of just 57 points so this is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Likewise, the Argos failed to score a touchdown until the third quarter in last week's 41-26 loss to the Eskimos. We have seen some positive signs from the Toronto offense in recent weeks but I believe it will be in tough against a somewhat underrated Als defense that has held the opposition to just 26.5 points per game on 313 passing yards and 95 rushing yards per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Hamilton v. BC +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 85 h 20 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Hamilton at 10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Lions in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Vancouver on Saturday night. There's no question the Lions have had this rematch circled after blowing a huge fourth quarter lead in that narrow 35-34 loss in Hamilton two weeks ago. The Lions were in a tough spot last week, playing on limited rest, and ultimately fell in blowout fashion, but not before putting up a fight for a half. B.C. gave up an early first quarter touchdown in that game but actually held the Bombers out of the end zone until late in the third quarter after that. Here, they'll face a Ti-Cats offense that is still without its best player in QB Jeremiah Masoli. Backup Dane Evans has done an admirable job filling in for Masoli, but has also been turnover prone, tossing four interceptions compared to five touchdowns. Hamilton has played it fairly close to the vest with Evans under center and that doesn't work particularly well here in a road favorite role traveling across the country off an easy win in Ottawa. Take B.C. (10*). |
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08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina plus the points over New England at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We’ve won with the Patriots in each of the last two weeks, taking full advantage of the fact that they’ve placed a strong emphasis on preparing the right way and winning on the road in this year’s preseason after going a disappointing 3-5 on the road last regular season. Now New England returns home as a favorite against the Panthers, but I simply don’t believe that Bill Bellichick is going to put a lot of stock in whether it picks up a win or suffers its first loss of the exhibition campaign – even if it is the traditional ‘Week 3 dress rehearsal’ game. The Panthers are coming off an ugly 27-14 home loss to the Bills last week, which came on the heels of a 23-13 win in Chicago to open the preseason. We didn’t see many of the Panthers regular starters in last week’s contest but that should change this week. Note that even after last week’s loss, the Panthers have posted a respectable 18-15-1 ATS record in the preseason under head coach Ron Rivera. Take Carolina (10*). |
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08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night as the Cardinals won by a 3-0 score. I'm anticipating more in the way of offensive fireworks on Tuesday, however. Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for the Brewers. He's obviously on the down side of his career and his numbers reflect that this season. Gonzalez has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13 innings over that stretch. He's been tagged for four home runs while issuing seven walks over his last two trips to the hill. Michael Wacha will counter for St. Louis. He has recorded an inflated 5.44 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season and hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning since way back on June 28th. In Wacha's last two outings he has given up eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos OVER 41.5 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -109 | 154 h 30 m | Show |
NFLX Monday Night Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between San Francisco and Denver at 8 pm et on Monday. Both the 49ers and Vikings are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs in their respective preseason openers last week. I expect a different story to unfold as they square off in Denver on Monday night, however. The Broncos didn’t give up much in the first half of their loss to the Seahawks, but they were facing Geno Smith. Here, they’ll face a better group of quarterbacks, noting the 49ers essentially split the game between Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard last week (we won with the Niners in that 17-9 victory over Dallas). WR Jalen Hurd was an early preseason breakout candidate, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the win over Dallas. Denver’s offense has yet to really get going through two preseason games, but we did see some more positive signs last week in Seattle as rookie QB Drew Lock settled in to throw for 180 yards and a touchdown on 28 pass attempts. Joe Flacco made a cameo appearance and completed 3-of-4 passes for 19 yards. The 49ers defense really wasn’t tested in last week’s game against Dallas, which is known for its conservative offensive play in the preseason under Jason Garrett. Look for Denver to expose the San Francisco defense a little bit here. Take the over (10*). |
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08-17-19 | Lions v. Texans -4 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 107 h 31 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Detroit at 8 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the favored Texans as they try to bounce back from last week’s ‘not as close as it looked’ 28-26 loss in Green Bay. First of all, the Lions are now 1-4 ATS in the preseason since Matt Patricia took over last year. They were a complete no-show in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. I don’t see this as an ideal bounce-back spot against an equally hungry Texans squad coming off a loss. Detroit will likely give plenty of time to Tom Savage and David Fales under center again this week, which doesn’t bode well for its offense after they combined to complete 7-of-17 passes for only 102 yards and an interception last week. The Texans have a proven preseason performer at quarterback in Joe Webb. He threw for 286 yards and a touchdown to go along with a pair of interceptions and also ran for 47 yards on six carries last week. Credit Houston for not folding the tent after falling behind 28-10 entering the fourth quarter last week, putting up 16 unanswered points in the game’s final 14 minutes. Note that the Texans are 12-7-1 ATS under Bill O’Brien in the preseason. Take Houston (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the 'over' the last time these two teams met back on July 25th but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in the rematch. Since posting that 26-0 win over the Argos, the Eskimos have struggled to put points on the board, scoring just 34 points in splitting games against the Stampeders and Redblacks. With that being said, they do continue to march the football up and down the field with QB Trevor Harris completing 62-of-82 passes for over 700 yards over the last two games alone. I'm confident the Eskimos can get their groove back offensively against a weak Argos defense here. On the flip side, we saw Toronto gain a ton of confidence in a come-from-behind 28-27 win over the Blue Bombers two weeks ago. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson broke loose in that game, throwing for 343 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 44 yards. There's no question the Eskimos are a formidable defensive opponent, but are they as good as they've been in the last three games, where they have given up just 36 points? I'm not so sure. Take the over (10*). |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -121 | 82 h 2 m | Show |
NFLX Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I’m anticipating a preseason shootout as the Dolphins and Buccaneers renew their exhibition rivalry on Friday night. The Dolphins offense found the end zone four times in last week’s win over the Falcons. I really like the Miami quarterback rotation as far as preseason standards go with Josh Rosen, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jake Rudock. Rosen threw for just shy of 200 yards on just 13 completions last week but didn’t find the end zone so he’ll certainly be motivated to get a little more in-sync with his receiving corps here. I like the fact that Rudock did throw a touchdown in the fourth quarter in last week’s contest. The Miami defense wasn’t all that impressive, allowing Atlanta to score offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters and execute three consecutive scoring drives in a four-minute stretch late in the first half. The Bucs are expected to take a big leap forward offensively under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians this season. They certainly looked good in last week’s narrow 30-28 loss in Pittsburgh. It took just one drive for Jameis Winston and Chris Godwin to hook up for a touchdown score. QB Ryan Griffin is doing everything he can to pass Blaine Gabbert in the depth chart, throwing for 330 yards and a score in last week’s loss. Expect to see a little more out of Winston and the Bucs offensive starters in this one, which certainly bodes well for our ‘over’ play. Take the over (10*). |
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08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Homer Bailey will take the ball for Oakland. He got roughed up last time out, allowing seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. While Bailey does own a winning record this season, he hasn't pitched well, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Likewise, Giants starter Tyler Beede has also struggled, recording a 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts, allowing 32 hits in just 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll keep my analysis brief in the interest of time as this total was just released this morning. The O's are riding high following a wild, come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Astros yesterday and I look for them to have continued success offensively against James Paxton and the Yankees on a hot and humid afternoon in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Yankees bats were relatively silent against the Jays over the weekend but should have little trouble bouncing back against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.57 ERA here. Note that the Yanks just faced Ynoa back on August 5th and he didn't make it through the fifth inning. Take the over (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
NFLX Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Saturday. The 49ers are laying more than the standard field goal here in their home preseason opener on Saturday night, largely due to the fact that two experienced quarterbacks in Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard are expected to split time and play the majority of the game. I believe the line is warranted and look for the Niners to ultimately pull away for the win and cover. Keep in mind, last year the Niners needed a 14-point fourth quarter rally to defeat the Cowboys by a 24-21 score in this same matchup in Week 1 of the preseason. Beathard and Mullens each threw an interception in that game. The fact is, the Cowboys offense didn't do much, and I don't expect much different of a story to play out here. The difference is the 49ers QB duo are more experienced and should be able to take care of the football. While I'm not necessarily on board with the thinking that the Niners will be much improved this season (I have a lot of questions about their defense), I do expect them to prevail here. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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08-10-19 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 37 | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Kansas City at 8 pm et on Saturday. A lot of bettors will be expecting fireworks between these two teams as the high-octane Chiefs offense takes the field for the first time against the Bengals, who have a renewed sense of optimism on offense under the guidance of head coach Zac Taylor. Don't count on that type of shootout, however, as Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has already indicated his team will keep things simple on offense and give the young guys plenty of playing time with the starters likely seeing less than a quarter of action. The Bengals are ushering in a new offensive scheme essentially and there will be some growing pains. Don't count on Taylor unleashing his full playbook against a conference opponent on Saturday night in Kansas City. This total has been posted relatively low for a reason. Take the under (10*). |
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08-09-19 | Ottawa v. Edmonton -8.5 | Top | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month. My selection is on Edmonton minus the points over Ottawa at 10 pm et on Friday. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the Eskimos here after they fell as a road favorite in Calgary last week, not to mention the Redblacks overtime victory in Montreal. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for the Eskimos offense against a very beatable Redblacks defense. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris continues to light it up even if his offense has been somewhat snake-bitten as far as finding the end zone goes. Harris threw for 373 yards and two touchdowns in last week's narrow loss to the Stamps. The Redblacks didn't score an offensive touchdown until the third quarter against the Alouettes last week. They've had a tough time with consistency on offense due in large part to a depleted backfield that has seen a lot of moving parts. RB Mossis Madu remains sidelined. When these two teams squared off in Edmonton last year, the Eskimos pasted the Redblacks 34-16. Trevor Harris will certainly be highly-motivated to hand it to his former squad. The Eskimos are 3-4 ATS on the season but 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS at home, where they've won their last two games by a combined 65-23 score. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the under on Tuesday night. Two veteran starters will take the ball. Brett Anderson goes for the A’s. He had worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, allowing three earned runs or less in five of those outings as well. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs. He has gone at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. With the wind expected to be blowing in, I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). |
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08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I’m expecting plenty of offense as the Mets look to build on last night‘s victory which pushed them over the .500 mark for the first time since May. Note the pitching change for the Marlins with Noesi starting in place of Yamomoto. I’ll still play the over following the change as the Mets are playing with plenty of confidence at the dish and should have little trouble getting to the journeyman Hector Noesi, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since he was a member of the White Sox back in 2015. Zack Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings for the Mets in his last start but prior to that had been tagged for nine earned runs over two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings. The Marlins are reeling right now but have still managed to score at least four runs in four of their last six contests and we don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket given the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). |
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08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both the Brewers and Pirates enter this series struggling which would lead many to believe we‘re In for a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Jordan Lyles will face his former club in the series opener. Lyles hasn’t pitched particularly well here at PNC Park this season, allowing 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings pitched here. Dario Agrazal will counter for the Buccos. His last start totaled just five runs against the Reds but don’t be fooled by that result as Agrazal didn’t get out of the fourth inning in that game. After steady performance in his first handful of big league starts, Agrazal has now given up eight earned runs in just nine frames over his last two outings. Take the over. |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hamilton and Saskatchewan at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in Regina on Thursday night. The Riders have seen back-to-back games play 'over' the total, scoring 83 points themselves in the process. Keep in mind, those two contests came against the one-win Lions (their only victory came against winless Toronto). Here, the Riders face a much tougher challenge as they welcome the Ti-Cats. Hamilton absolutely manhandled a previously rolling Blue Bombers offense last week, holding them to only 15 points in a hard-fought victory. I don't envision much of a letdown here as Saskatchewan will certainly have the Ti-Cats attention off back-to-back strong offensive showings. Note that Hamilton lost QB Jeremiah Masoli to injury last week so it will be up to Dane Evans to steer the offense now. Playing on a short week I can't see Hamilton really opening up the playbook for Evans. The Riders defense hasn't been great by any means, but they do catch the Ti-Cats in a favorable spot after losing Masoli. Saskatchewan, of course, lost its starting QB Zach Collaros in the first game of the season and has been going with Cody Fajardo ever since. He has been good, but not great, throwing seven touchdowns compared to four interceptions. The Riders have faced a rather soft schedule with three of their first six games coming against the Argos and Lions. Take the under (10*). |
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07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3.5 | Top | 45-18 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 59 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Saskatchewan at 7 pm et on Saturday. Saskatchewan defeated B.C. just last week but that was a strange game as the Lions actually outgained the Riders in terms of total yardage and had a decisive edge in first downs as well. Save for a stinker against the Eskimos two weeks ago, Lions QB Mike Reilly has looked more and more comfortable running the offense, last week completing 31-of-40 passes for 346 yards while also running for 32 yards and a score. RB Brandon Rutley enjoyed a breakout performance of sorts against the Riders, running for 73 yards on 13 carries. While the Lions did give up a whopping 38 points in last week's loss, they actually held the Riders offense out of the end zone from just over midway through the first quarter until the final two minutes of the third quarter. Things came unglued in the fourth quarter but B.C. can hang its hat on the fact that it allowed Riders QB Cody Fajardo to complete only 17 passes and picked him off twice. Outside of that victory, Saskatchewan's only other win this season came against the lowly Argos, who are arguably worse than the Lions. B.C. has now outgained three of its last four opponents and I believe it's only a matter of time before it all comes together for this squad. While Saskatchewan has owned this series recently, it's been a long time since the Riders were last favored in a game played here in Vancouver. I simply feel the oddsmakers are undervaluing what will be a desperate Lions squad on Saturday. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-26-19 | Cubs v. Brewers +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers didn't exactly take care of business to open this homestand, dropping two of three games against the Reds. They did, however, salvage the finale of that series and I look for them to notch another victory on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago travels from San Francisco, where it dropped two of three games as well. The Cubs are a miserable 19-29 on the road this season. Kyle Hendricks is a losing pitcher on a winning team, having gone 7-8 with a 3.41 ERA this season. He's been at his worst on the road where he's 3-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Note that Chicago is giving Hendricks just north of two runs per game when he takes the ball on the road this season. Gio Gonzalez will counter for Milwaukee. He returned from a 'dead arm' to throw four somewhat effective innings against Arizona last time out. In 10 1/3 innings pitched at Miller Park this season he has recorded a terrific 0.87 WHIP. Also note that Gonzalez turned in one of his best outings of the season against the Cubs, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball back in May. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 52.5 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Edmonton at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Eskimos 20-10 loss in Montreal last Saturday but I expect a different story to unfold as Edmonton returns home to host the winless Argos on Thursday night. Edmonton has been held out of the end zone in each of its two losses this season but that hasn't been for lack of trying. The Eskimos had plenty of opportunities to punch it in last week and even had a touchdown called back due to a holding penalty. QB Trevor Harris threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions in last week's loss but should bounce back against a weaker opponent here. Note that Harris threw for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns the last time he faced the Argos as a member of the Redblacks last season. He's had plenty of success against Toronto over the course of his career. On the flip side, the Argos came up short once again last week, falling by a 26-16 score in Calgary. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson did march the football up and down the field in that game, throwing for 343 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but also turned the football over a whopping four times. The Eskimos defense can get after opposing quarterbacks but certainly isn't the same type of ball-hawking unit as the Stamps possess. With RB James Wilder Jr. injured, Brandon Burks will take over backfield duties for Toronto and I do feel he's better-suited for the CFL game as a true scat back. We saw a pair of low-scoring games between these two squads last year but prior to that their last four meetings had reached 57 points or more. Expect a return to 'normal' in this series here. Take the over (10*). |
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07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon as the Cards and Pirates close out their four-game series. While St. Louis did bust out offensively last night, it's worth noting that they had scored a grand total of 15 runs over their previous four contests. The Pirates remain in an offensive lull. Entering last night's game they hadn't plated more than five runs in a game since July 7th. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He owns miserable numbers on the road this season, with an ERA north of seven. However, he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings away from home and has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Pirates this season. Mikolas has given up two earned runs or less in six of eight career starts against the Buccos. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has posted a solid 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings and a 1.13 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the hot-hitting Phillies last time out. Musgrove hasn't fared well against the Cardinals over the course of his career but in his lone home start against them he tossed seven shutout innings. Conditions should favor the pitchers on Thursday with relatively low humidity in the ballpark. Take the under (10*). |
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07-24-19 | Reds v. Brewers -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee over Cincinnati at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this series, with their pitching really letting them down, allowing 20 runs in those two losses. I believe the price is reasonable to back the Brewers to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin started the season a perfect 2-0 but has gone a miserable 1-10 since. He got rocked in his last start in Arizona but has actually pitched well here at home recently, allowing just two earned runs over his last two starts at Miller Park, covering a span of 10 innings. Lucas Sims will counter for the Reds. He has posted solid numbers this season but we're talking about a very small sample size as he has worked just 9 2/3 innings. The Brewers do continue to perform well offensively, having plated 54 runs over their last eight games, scoring at least five runs in each of those contests. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal UNDER 54.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 4 pm et on Saturday. This is a bit of a tough spot for the Eskimos as they stay on the road for a third straight game and travel east to face the upstart Alouettes in Montreal. Having allowed 28 points or less in all four games so far this season, I do expect the Esks defense to hold up well. The Als are fresh off back-to-back breakout offensive performances, scoring exactly 36 points in wins over the Ti-Cats and Redblacks. I do think the Als offense caught both of those defenses flat-footed, but that isn't likely to be the case against a better defensive squad in the Eskimos here. Note that Edmonton held Mike Reilly and the B.C. Lions to only six points in last week's blowout victory. Much of the Montreal's offensive success has come on the legs of RB William Stanback. With that being said, Edmonton has done a tremendous job of keeping its opponent's top rushers at bay, holding John White (twice) and Andrew Harris under 50 yards on the ground in its last three contests. The Esks did allow Stanback to gain 76 rushing yards in their first meeting with the Als this season but that was on the strength of one 42-yard run. You can be sure they'll be keying on slowing down the Als lead back this week. Montreal is certainly familiar with Eskimos QB Trevor Harris from his days with the Redblacks. Note that the Als three games against Ottawa last year totaled just 46, 41 and 32 points. Montreal has certainly improved defensively as this season has gone on with a knack for turning the football over. With that in mind, we can expect Edmonton to employ a smart offensive gameplan with a focus on taking care of the football. The first matchup between these two teams totaled 57 points this season, but it's worth noting that game saw a wild 31-point fourth quarter. We're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around, and I'm not sure the shift is warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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07-19-19 | Marlins +255 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I can't ignore the value being offered with the underdog Marlins here as they catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot. While Miami is 22 games under .500 on the season, it has actually gone a respectable 26-27 over its last 53 games. The Marlins are coming off a series with over the Padres while the Dodgers return home after a roller-coaster series in Philadelphia that saw a total of 57 runs scored. Marlins starter Zac Gallen has had an up and down start to his big league career but comes in off five days' rest and has fared alright in two previous road starts, allowing three earned runs while posting an 8:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over seven innings of work (the Marlins split those two games winning in St. Louis but losing in Washington). Hyun-Jin Ryu will counter for Los Angeles. He has obviously been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and checks in sporting a perfect 9-0 team record here at Dodger Stadium. Ryu owns a 2-1 team record in three career starts against the Marlins, however he hasn't faced them since 2017 and prior to that his other two outings against them came way back in 2013. I simply feel the Dodgers could be in for a bit of a letdown off back-to-back series' three time zones away in Boston and Philadelphia and the price doesn't properly reflect probability in this particular situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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07-18-19 | A's +127 v. Twins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
MLB American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Oakland over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Despite his 9-3 record and 3.61 ERA bettors aren't buying into A's journeyman starter Mike Fiers. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month or so, allowing a grand total of four earned runs over his last five starts, spanning 33 innings of work. His road numbers aren't great but he certainly hasn't struggled away from home recently, working at least six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last four road outings. In his last start here in Minnesota, the A's won by a 6-2 score last August. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He's had an up and down season and checks in on a downward trend, having allowed 13 earned runs on 24 hits over his last five starts, covering a span of just 22 innings. The A's can obviously slug with the best of them and I'm confident they'll be able to get to Gibson tonight. This is a classic case of two clubs heading in opposite directions and I look for the A's to stay red hot, at least in the opener of this series. Take Oakland (10*). |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Fresh off a couple of high-scoring affairs to open this series I look for the scoring to settle down considerably on Wednesday night. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the Dodgers. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. The only start in which he didn't make it that far came at Coors Field. The 'under' is 5-1-1 in Maeda's last seven trips to the hill. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadephia. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he lasted only five frames but gave up just three earned runs and that game totaled just four runs. He has allowed only four earned runs in 17 career innings against the Dodgers. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +3.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on B.C. plus the points over Edmonton at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab the points with the Lions in this one as they look to avenge a 39-23 loss suffered against the Eskimos earlier this season (we won with Edmonton in that game). We successfully faded the Lions last week as well, grabbing the points with the Argos in a game that went right down to the wire. It wasn't a stellar performance from B.C., but it did manage to string together a pair of second half touchdown drives and didn't allow an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the fourth quarter. Now the Lions return home for the first time since their season-opening loss to the still-undefeated Blue Bombers. I'm not sure the Eskimos bye week came at the best time as they were off their first loss of the season - a game in which they failed to score an offensive touchdown. Keep in mind, Edmonton hasn't won here in Vancouver since October of 2017, when it needed overtime to secure the victory. QB Mike Reilly is getting more comfortable in the Lions offense with each passing week. I like the Lions chances here. Take B.C. (10*). |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Ottawa at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in Winnipeg last week as the Blue Bombers defeated the Eskimos. I won't hesitate to switch gears here as the Bombers play outside the West Division for the first time this season, traveling to Ottawa to face the upstart Redblacks. The Bombers are in midseason form offensively, having scored 61 points through their first two games with QB Matt Nichols throw for six touchdowns and just one interception. Last week against Edmonton they scored a pair of offensive touchdowns in both the first and third quarter. They did let the Eskimos back in the game in the fourth quarter but I look for them to do a better job of keeping their foot on the gas offensively on the road this week. The Winnipeg defense bent but didn't break against Edmonton, allowing a whopping seven field goals. It has actually allowed just one offensive touchdown through two games, but keep in mind, the Bombers season-opener came against a Lions offense that was still working out the kinks with new QB Mike Reilly. Ottawa has come storming out of the gates offensively this season, scoring 76 points in wins over Calgary and Saskatchewan. Unlike the Eskimos, who ran the football just four times on the Bombers last week, we can expect the Redblacks to pound the football with some success on Friday night. Dual-threat quarterbacks have long had success in this league and now it's Boston College alum Dominique Davis' turn. After a shaky debut that saw him throw four interceptions against Calgary, he bounced back to throw for 354 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last time out. I'm not sure the Bombers defense is as good as it has shown so far. The Redblacks won't shy away from a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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