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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-22 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Despite a relatively low-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring, we've still seen four of the last seven meetings here in Washington go 'over' the total and I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair as well. Boston has scored exactly five goals in three of its last four games and is well-positioned for another strong offensive performance here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Bruins coming off a division win this season, as is the case here, as they've averaged 3.9 goals in that spot with an average total of 7.0 goals. The Caps have been held to three goals or less in four straight games - their longest such streak of the season. Keep in mind, three of those last four contests were played on the road. Here at home, Washington averages 3.5 goals per game this season with an average total of 6.1 goals. We'll note that the 'over' is 25-14 the last 39 times the Caps have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*) |
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01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Northwestern v. Ohio State UNDER 140.5 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Ohio State at 5:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect points to come at a premium in this Big Ten matchup with Northwestern coming off consecutive home losses in-conference and Ohio State fresh off a 16-point dismantling at the hands of Indiana on the road. Note that the Buckeyes have turned in two of their best defensive efforts of the season when coming off their two previous losses this season, holding Duke to 38.5% shooting following a loss to Florida and Seton Hall to 38.1% shooting after a loss against Xavier. Note that Ohio State checks in 49th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Northwestern has given up 70+ points in consecutive games for the first time this season but still ranks top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. I don't expect Ohio State to run away and hide in this one, noting that the Buckeyes sit 249th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While Northwestern generally likes to push the pace a little bit, I'm not sure it will be afforded the opportunity to do so against the Buckeyes. The Wildcats have been able to force the tempo in large part thanks to facing the nation's 265th toughest schedule. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Wildcats have played on the road following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 126.3 points. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 89-60 with the Buckeyes playing at home coming off an ATS loss, which is also the situation here, producing an average total of 133.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Jets v. Bills -16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills in the first matchup between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch in Buffalo. The Jets have inexplicably scored 24+ points in three straight games but only have one win to show for it. I suspect that run comes to an end here, however, noting that Buffalo has allowed only 49 points in its last three games combined, holding those three opponents to a combined 45-of-93 (48.4%) passing for just 432 yards. On the flip side, we've seen the Bills running game somewhat surprisingly step to the forefront, rumbling for 173, 119, 114 and 233 yards over their last three games. With an AFC East title hanging in the balance (Buffalo would also need a Patriots loss to the Dolphins) I don't expect the Bills to take their foot off the gas in this one. Given what an uneven regular season it has been for Buffalo, I suspect they want to head into the playoffs with a sharp performance on both sides of the football here (I realize that goes without saying). Take Buffalo (10*). |
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01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. |
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01-08-22 | Bruins v. Lightning -146 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -146 | 31 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We've been high on the Lightning lately, most recently cashing with them in Thursday's 4-1 win over the Flames. I won't hesitate to get behind them again on Saturday, even as they face an arguably tougher matchup against the Bruins. Boston should be in a foul mood after dropping a 3-2 decision at home against Minnesota on Thursday. The Bruins have had a difficult time stepping up in class this season and I expect a similar story to unfold here. To that point, the Lightning took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 3-2 score in Boston back in early December. Note that Boston checks in just 17-21 the last 38 times it has come off two wins in its last three games, as is the case here, averaging just 2.6 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lighting are an impressive 40-15 in their last 55 games after allowing two goals or less in consecutive contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. The Lightning are as healthy as they've been all season while the Bruins are dealing with injuries to a few key role players, not to mention defensive anchor Charlie McAvoy, who is questionable to play on Saturday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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01-08-22 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. Troy State | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won with Appalachian State in an arguably tougher matchup two nights ago as the Mountaineers went on the road and upset South Alabama by a 72-64 score - their second straight in-conference victory. They won that game despite not getting a single point from Justin Forrest in his first game back off the Covid list. I would certainly anticipate a sharper performance from Forrest in particular in Saturday's game. As we noted on Thursday, the Mountaineers have faced a very difficult schedule this season - ranking 78th in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Troy, which checks in 298th in that department yet has only managed three more victories than Appalachian State. I like the discipline we've seen from the Mountaineers this season as they only send opponents to the free throw line an average of 11 times per game. They also average five fewer turnovers per game than Troy, despite a similar number of possessions per contest. The Trojans have forced an additional five turnovers per game compared to the Mountaineers but again, strength of schedule factors in. Troy swept the season series between these two teams last year. Prior to that, Appalachian State had taken four of the last five meetings and we only have to go back three meetings at Troy (to December of 2019) to find the last time the Mountaineers won a game outright on this floor. Take Appalachian State (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 118-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as the Hawks try for their first winning streak since reeling off seven consecutive victories back in November while the Lakers try to post a fourth straight win for the first time this season. On a positive note for the Hawks, they have now won two of their last three games for the first time since that aforementioned winning streak, despite dealing with a multitude of Covid and injury-related absences. Trae Young is currently questionable to play on Friday due to back soreness. While I do expect him to play, I still like backing the Hawks in an underdog role here even if he doesn't (albeit with a lesser wager depending on the number). On the two previous occasions where the Lakers posted three straight wins this season they went on to lose their next game outright as a 10.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma City and as a 1.5-point road favorite against Minnesota. The Lakers are just 11-24 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.4 points on average. Worse still, they're a woeful 2-12 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same period, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. While the Hawks are a losing team on the road this season at 9-11 SU, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 points in those games. The Lakers on the other hand are 13-10 SU at home but have actually been outscored by 0.3 points on average - a big reason why they're a miserable 8-15 ATS here in Los Angeles this season. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Capitals v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both the Capitals and Blues will be looking to bounce back from losses on Friday night with Washington coming off a 4-3 home loss against the Devils and St. Louis fresh off a tough 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh - a game in which they blew a 3-2 third period lead. You would have to go back three meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams went 'over' five goals. Note that the Caps are giving up just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Blues have allowed just 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is a stellar 15-5 the last 20 times the Blues have come off consecutive games totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 the last five times St. Louis has played at home after winning four or five of its last six games, producing an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Brown +3.5 v. Harvard | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Harvard at 7 pm et on Friday. Brown enters this game on the heels of four straight losses including a heartbreaking 77-73 near-miss on the road against Penn last Sunday. The Bears have faced the 111th toughest schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom while Harvard has faced the 303rd. So it's not surprising that the Crimson check in sporting the better overall record (although not by much at 7-4 compared to 8-8). Here, Harvard will be taking the floor in game action for the first time since December 21st. The 'rest vs. rust' conversation comes up yet again and here I think Brown has the distinct advantage having played three times (and against tough competition including road games at Syracuse and Maryland) since Harvard last played. While a lot of bettors will likely use the 'triple-revenge' angle in support of Harvard here, I'm not sure that plays a major factor. Both teams experienced plenty of roster turnover. Speaking of that, I'm high on Brown freshman Nana Owuse-Anane, who has contributed 6.8 points per game and 3.7 rebounds per game in 18.5 minutes on average so far this season. Loyola-Chicago transfer Paxson Wojcik is also a notable newcomer. It's worth pointing out that he failed to knock down a single three-pointer over the last two games (he had made 12 over his previous five games) yet the Bears were right there in contention for the ATS cover in each of those contests. I'm anticipating a solid bounce-back effort from him tonight. The Crimson rely heavily on the three-ball in their offense, averaging 10 made threes per game this season. Brown on the other hand has done an excellent job of limiting its opponents effectiveness from long range, allowing just six made threes per game on the road (on 18 attempts). While Brown has been shooting much better lately following a shaky start to the season (that had a lot to do with the aforementioned difficult, front-loaded schedule), Harvard has shot worse than 38% in three of its last four contests. Finally, I'll note that Harvard has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six lined games off consecutive home wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Brown (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Southern Miss +4 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over UTSA at 8 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss has plenty of returning experience on this year's team but isn't expected to make much noise in C-USA. Things have generally played out accordingly so far as the Golden Eagles check in 4-8 on the season, coming off six consecutive losses. With that being said, I see this as a winnable game. Note that while Southern Miss has only faced the 216th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, UTSA ranks 335th in that department. A closer inspection of the Roadrunners seven wins finds that they've defeated the likes of Trinity College (non-Div. 1), 5-11 Denver, 1-10 IUPUI (by three points at home), 2-13 Lamar, St. Mary's-Texas (non-Div. 1), Sam Houston State (their lone credible win) and Dallas Christian (non-Div. 1). It's not as if UTSA has been overly impressive in its wins - in fact, it checks in just 4-6 ATS in lined games this season. I do think that Southern Miss can frustrate UTSA with it's methodical pace, much like it did against East Carolina in a narrow one-point loss last time out. Interestingly, while the Golden Eagles average five fewer three-point attempts per game than the Roadrunners, they only make one fewer on average. Despite attempting 10 fewer field goals per contest, Southern Miss actually averages one more assist per game than UTSA. The Roadrunners have taken three straight meetings in this series although both of last year's matchups were close, with each game decided by exactly six points. Note that prior to those three consecutive wins, UTSA hadn't previously managed to win back-to-back meetings in the first 10 matchups all-time in this series. Take Southern Miss (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Flames v. Lightning -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Flames in their most recent victory on Sunday in Chicago but stayed away on Tuesday and rightfully so as they fell in blowout fashion against the Panthers. Credit the Flames for returning to the ice with a pair of wins to open this trip but it was always going to get tougher in Florida and I don't see Calgary getting back in the win column on Thursday against the Lightning. Tampa Bay rebounded from a rare three-game losing streak with a resounding 7-4 win in Columbus on Tuesday. Essentially as healthy as they've been all season, I like the Lightning's chances during this brief two-game homestand, noting they've gone 11-6 on home ice this season and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal the last 42 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here. You would have to go back three meetings here in Tampa, all the way to 2018 to find the last time Calgary won a game at Amalie Arena. Since then, the Bolts have reeled off four straight wins against the Flames, scoring a whopping 22 goals in the process. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*). |
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01-05-22 | DePaul +5 v. St. John's | Top | 84-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Depaul plus the points over St. John's at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Depaul will be looking to snap its first losing streak of the season as it takes on St. John's on Wednesday night. The Blue Demons won't have a hard time getting up for this one after suffering a 17-point beatdown at the hands of Providence last time out. Prior to that, their other two losses this season came by identical four-point margins against quality opponents in Loyola-Chicago and Butler. St. John's is coming off a loss of its own, dropping a two-point decision against a disappointing Pittsburgh squad. It's worth noting that the Blue Demons send opponents to the free throw line five fewer times per game while also getting there one additional time compared to the Red Storm this season. They also turn the ball over two fewer times despite playing at a slightly slower pace. St. John's has been the slightly better three-point shooting team but has also been the weaker team defending the three. While Depaul's strength of schedule ranks a poor 268th in the country according to KenPom, St. John's has faced the nation's 347th toughest schedule. In other words, there's little separating these two squads yet the Red Storm are being asked to lay a handful of points. Note that home court has meant very little in this particular series lately with the road team taking three consecutive meetings and six of the last nine overall. Take Depaul (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Virginia +4 v. Clemson | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met just two weeks ago in Virginia, Clemson exacted revenge for last year's 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Cavaliers, securing a decisive 17-point victory. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Virginia looks for revenge, noting that the Cavaliers own a terrific 22-11 ATS mark under head coach Tony Bennett when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Also note that the Cavaliers are 32-19 under Bennett as a road underdog. Clemson, meanwhile, checks in a miserable 3-11 ATS, outscored by 6.5 points on average, when coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Virginia (10*). |
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01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). |
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01-03-22 | Browns -1 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Texans +13 v. 49ers | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan State and Northwestern at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams have been filling up boxscores in the early going this season with Michigan State checking in with an 11-2 record and Northwestern sitting at 8-2. With both teams averaging just shy of 80 points per game I can understand why we're looking at a total in the high-130s on Sunday. I believe it will prove too high, however. This will be the toughest test either team has faced in the last month. I don't think we're going to see Michigan allow Northwestern to get out and push the pace as much as it would like in this home matchup. I do, however, believe that the Wildcats will be able to run their offense, noting that they're turning the ball over only nine times per game while Michigan State has forced just 11 turnovers per contest. While both teams have shot well, neither has put up over-the-top numbers in terms of three-pointers of free throws made per game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 17-6 the last 23 times the Spartans have played on the road after scoring 75+ points in four straight games, as is the case here. Northwestern has had a tendency to struggle in these January Big Ten home games, averaging just 62 points per game while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven home tilts in the first month of the year. Take the under (10*). |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Ole Miss 'first half' minus the points over Baylor at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Baylor did what many didn't believe it could, upsetting Oklahoma State in a revenge game to capture the Big 12 Championship in early December. Here, I believe the Bears face a much different challenge but rather than lay the points with Ole Miss in the full game, we'll focus on the first half only. The Rebels should offer something of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense like the one Ole Miss possesses in the Big 12. There were times when the Rebels offense didn't look quite as explosive or potent as most expected but a lot of that had to do with a number of key contributors being banged-up or sidelined entirely. With a full month off between games (the Rebels haven't played since Thanksgiving Night) Ole Miss should be 'all systems go' for this one with do-it-all QB Matt Corral somewhat surprisingly playing in this game instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I give Baylor all the credit in the world for winning the Big 12 title. We cashed a few tickets with the Bears over the course of the season and they could very well win this game as well as the Rebels do have the type of defense that will let opponents back in games. However, in the first half, I believe it will be Ole Miss that goes on the offensive (no pun intended) and gets plenty of licks in against a Bears defense you can throw on (we've seen a number of Baylor's opponents this season find success through the air). While Baylor has proven stout against the run, the Rebels offer a ground attack that can really disguise its looks and brings a different approach compared to what the Bears have seen, led by the dual-threat Corral. Also consider that if there's any team more built to play on the 'fast track' at the Superdome, it's the Rebels. Take Ole Miss first half (10*). |
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01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). |
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12-31-21 | Capitals -150 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I like what I saw from the Capitals as they jumped ahead early, blew a 3-0 lead but then rallied to win 5-3 against the Predators in their first game back from the holiday break two nights ago. We've seen some of that shakiness from most teams in their first game back on the ice, and should anticipate the same from the Red Wings on Friday. The Caps have most of their key contributors back from the Covid list and are primed to go on a run. They've only managed to split the first two meetings in this series this season but I like their chances here, noting the Red Wings have averaged just 1.7 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals when coming off consecutive games in which they scored 3+ goals, as is the case here, over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Take Washington (10*). |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Arizona State and Wisconsin at 10:30 pm et on Thursday.
This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*). |
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12-30-21 | St. Joe's v. Richmond -11.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
A-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Richmond minus the points over St. Joseph's at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Richmond Spiders. St. Joseph's comes in off three straight ATS wins. Note the last time it reeled off three consecutive ATS victories it followed that up with a 29-point thumping at the hands of Villanova. Richmond has won six games in a row, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Spiders should offer a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the St. Joe's defense here, noting that they average 10 more three-point attempts per game (26) than the Hawks have faced (16) so far this season. The Spiders are also getting to the free throw line an average of two more times per game while turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers, all while facing a much tougher schedule (top-95 in the country according to KenPom compared to St. Joe's top-250). This is a revenge spot for Richmond after it dropped a stunning 76-73 decision at home last March (as a 15-point favorite). The Spiders clearly overlooked the Hawks on that occasion after beating them by 20+ points on the road earlier in the season. Take Richmond (10*). |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 37 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The extended holiday break probably came at a good time for the Coyotes, who can use this restart to the season perhaps as a perfect reset, and hopefully turning point for the campaign. Arizona did go into the break on a positive note, off a big 6-5 upset win in Anaheim. San Jose, meanwhile, limped into the break off consecutive home losses against Seattle and Vancouver. The Sharks are just 7-8 on home ice this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals so the case can certainly be made that they have no business laying such a steep price, regardless the opponent. The Coyotes are 4-12 on the road but actually allow just 0.1 goals per game more on average than the Sharks do at home. Here, we'll note that the Coyotes are 6-1 the last seven times they've played on the road after scoring six goals or more in their previous game, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Sharks are a woeful 2-12 when playing four or more consecutive games at home, outscored by 2.2 goals on average. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Golden Knights -148 v. Kings | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Vegas over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a big revenge spot for the Golden Knights after they dropped a 6-2 decision against the Kings in the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 13-1 when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. The Kings, meanwhile, are a woeful 2-14 when coming off four or more consecutive road games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Interestingly, the Kings have averaged just 1.9 goals the last nine times they've played after being off for three or more days, which is obviously the case here following the extended holiday break. The Knights check in averaging an impressive 3.7 goals on the road this season, where they've gone 10-5. Take Vegas (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Northwestern State v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 68-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern State and Baylor at 8 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are anticipating on Tuesday night. Northwestern State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season - the seventh-toughest in the country according to KenPom. It faces another very tough matchup on the road against defending national champion Baylor on Tuesday. I expect it to once again struggle offensively, noting that it checks in averaging just six made three-pointers and 13 free throw attempts per game this season. Baylor meanwhile allows an average of only five made threes per game at home while sending opponents to the free throw line just 13 times per game on average. The question becomes whether Baylor goes off offensively in this one. It scored 94 points in its most recent game against Alcorn State. Prior to that it had scored fewer than 80 points in five of its last six games. Note that the Bears average nine made threes per game and should approach that average here. However, they also average only 10 made free throws per contest. Despite facing a difficult schedule, Northwestern State has managed to force an average of 12 turnovers per game while Baylor has turned it over 10 or more times in six consecutive games heading into this one. Take the under (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Louisville at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen plenty of support for Louisville leading up to this game, flipping the line from the opener that saw Air Force as a short favorite. I don't agree with the move. The Falcons have done nothing but win under head coach Troy Calhoun - particularly since a disastrous 2-10 2013 season. This year, we saw Air Force navigate a tough Mountain West Conference schedule to go 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. I guess you could say Louisville's most impressive win came at home against Central Florida early in the season. There were also ugly lopsided losses against the likes of Ole Miss, N.C. State and Kentucky in the Cardinals regular season finale. Air Force closed out the regular season on a roll, winning three straight games and scoring 124 points in the process. I expect the Falcons to offer a real shock to the system to the Louisville defense here - a defense that struggled to stop the run at the best of times this season. The Cardinals can run as well, and will need to with a couple of key contributors at the wide receiver position transferring out of the program, but Air Force was stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against opponents that average 3.8 ypr. While few expect the Falcons to take to the air often in this game, I do think there will be opportunities for them to do so, noting that they did average 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season while Louisville was only average against the pass, giving up 7.0 yppa. Take Air Force (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
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12-22-21 | Hofstra +6 v. Monmouth | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is Hofstra plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Monmouth Hawks are off to an incredible 12-0 ATS start this season but I think their run of perfection (ATS-wise at least) comes to an end on Wednesday. Hofstra is a quality squad that you just don't hear much about. The Pride have faced the 25th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom) but have managed to post a respectable 7-5 SU and 7-3 ATS (in lined games) overall record. They're limiting opponents to just 13 free throw attempts per game and a disciplined brand of defense will be key against a Monmouth squad that lives at the line, getting there 19 times per game this season. The Pride also turn the ball over three fewer times than the Hawks while forcing two additional turnovers per contest. Monmouth's offense has benefited from some sharp shooting from beyond the arc, particularly at home where it knocks down over 40% of its three-point attempts. Hofstra is capable of matching it in that regard, however, averaging 10 made threes per game. The Pride should offer the Hawks a bit of a change of pace here as they average 29 three-point attempts per game - five north of the 24 Monmouth has seen on average. These two teams met last December as well with Hofstra scoring 96 points in an eight-point road win (as a -1.5 favorite). Look for Speedy Claxton's squad to give red hot Monmouth a serious run on Wednesday night. Take Hofstra (10*). |
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12-21-21 | Suns -7 v. Lakers | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). |
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12-19-21 | Dartmouth +12 v. California | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Darmouth plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. Dartmouth gave Stanford everything it could handle on Friday night before fading in overtime in an 11-point loss. The eventual lopsided nature of that game ends up providing us with some value here as the Big Green should bring plenty of confidence as a decided underdog at Cal on Sunday. Note that Dartmouth ranks 77th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Cal checks in 119th. Coming off consecutive blowout wins to open their four-game homestand it would be easy for the Bears to overlook the Big Green here. That would be a mistake as Dartmouth can hang thanks to its terrific outside shooting (10 made threes per game on 37.2% shooting from beyond the arc). The knock on the Big Green is their inability to get to the free throw line with much consistency (they average only 11 attempts per game). However, they do knock down nearly 75% of their free throw attempts and it's not as if Cal has been much better in that regard, averaging 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Cal also averages only five made threes per contest. Additionally, Dartmouth forces three more turnovers per game while the two teams are on par in terms of turnovers lost, averaging 12 each. While I'm not about to call for the outright upset, I do think Dartmouth can take this one down to the wire. Take Dartmouth (10*). |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 227 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Canucks v. Sharks -125 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Sharks are one of the few teams in the NHL not dealing with Covid issues right now (I realize the situation is very fluid). Here, I think they're catching the Canucks at the right time, 'fat and happy' off five straight wins and with this being a tough one-game trip before heading back home for two. The Sharks are off a tough 3-1 loss to expansion Seattle two nights ago as they ran into a hot goalie in Chris Driedger (seems strange saying that but San Jose outshot Seattle 34-30 in that contest). The Canucks recent success has come at home. They're still just 5-9 on the road this season where they allow 3.6 goals per game. Things aren't going to get any easier on Thursday as they'll be missing a number of key cogs due to Covid protocols. Note that the Sharks have done a tremendous job of tightening things up defensively off a home loss this season, allowing only 1.2 goals per game the six previous times that situation has come up, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take San Jose (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Rangers v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' as the Rangers continue their road trip in Glendale on Wednesday night. This is of course a back-to-back spot for New York after losing by a 4-2 score in Colorado last night (we won with the Avalanche in that game). You have to wonder whether New York will go back to Alex Georgiev in goal as this would be his third game in the last four nights and fourth in the last six. Georgiev has been serviceable this season but certainly not elite, posting an .898 save percentage. Keith Kinkaid was the backup last night while Igor Shesterkin continues to work his way back from injury and likely isn't ready to go just yet. The Coyotes will have Scott Wedgewood in goal. In his last five contests, the Coyotes have given up 3, 4, 5, 3 and 5 goals. Note that the 'Yotes are allowing a whopping 4.6 goals per game on home ice this season. While they average just 2.3 goals per game here in Glendale, they are in a favorable spot here, noting that they average 2.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive home losses over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*). |
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12-14-21 | Islanders -119 v. Red Wings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Isles here in Detroit less than two weeks ago as they fell in overtime by a 4-3 score. That was in the midst of an awful Covid-tinged stretch that saw New York lose 11 consecutive games. The Isles have seemingly turned things around now, however, as they've won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming thanks to a late lapse against the Preds on home ice. After finally winning their first game at brand new UBS Arena on Saturday night I think the monkey is off their back in some sense. Look for them to earn an ounce of revenge as they head to Motown on Tuesday night. The Red Wings are off to a fine start all things considered, but they haven't been overly consistent. They check into this game off three consecutive losses and there were some really concerning signs in all three as they were outscored by a wide margin of 18-7. Sometimes when the floodgates open it's difficult for a team to regain its footing - just ask the Islanders. Here, I look for New York to take full advantage of Detroit's recent woes, noting that the Wings are a miserable 6-32 in their last 38 games after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Take New York (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*). |
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12-13-21 | Rhode Island v. Wisc-Milwaukee UNDER 131.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rhode Island and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Wisconsin-Milwaukee in its most recent game as it stayed inside the double-digit pointspread on the road against Pac-12 squad Colorado. Here, I'll call for another relatively low-scoring affair (that loss to Colorado totalled just 119 points) as the Panthers host Rhode Island on Monday. The Rams have seen the 'under' cash in three consecutive games. Interestingly, the Rams are attempting only 15 three-pointers per game and I don't anticipate shifting course here on Monday. What they have done is do an excellent job of getting to the free throw line, doing so 20 times per game. Here, though, they'll face a Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad that has done a good job of limiting opponents' attempts from the charity stripe, giving up just 15 per game. That's not to mention the fact that the Panthers are allowing opponents to shoot just 39.2% from the field. They haven't guarded the perimeter particularly well, but again they'll be facing a Rams squad that tends to operate lower in the half court. I don't anticipate either team looking to push the pace too much in this one, instead look for both sides to look to run their offense, ultimately eating clock and helping the final score stay 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Wild are rolling right now, winners of seven games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup in San Jose. I look for them to keep rolling, noting that the Sharks have just one victory in their last three games and that was essentially gift-wrapped for them thanks to an awful performance from the Flames after they had built a 3-1 lead. Keep in mind, the Wild will have revenge on their minds here after suffering a 4-1 loss on home ice against the Sharks back on November 16th. nNote that San Jose averages a woeful 1.9 goals per game the last 16 times it has played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. After Tuesday's win in Edmonton, the Wild are now 8-5 on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game along the way. While the Sharks have posted a winning record at home at 6-5 on the season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Stars v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Knights have quietly gotten healthy but are still looking for consistency as they aim for their first three-game winning streak since early November on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Dallas has ripped off seven straight victories with six of those coming on home ice. The Stars' last two opponents have been punchless as the Blue Jackets and Coyotes combined to score just three goals on a miserable 41 shots on goal. Keep in mind, while the Stars did prevail, in their last two games against opposition with a pulse they've been outshot by a 77-39 combined margin against the Avalanche and Hurricanes. They're likely to face an onslaught here with the Knights having scored 15 goals over their last three games and averaging 3.2 goals per game on home ice this season. By contrast, Dallas averages just 2.4 goals per game on the road, where it has gone 4-6 and been outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals. Dallas has played just three games here in Vegas all-time, only managing a single win with that coming back in the Knights inaugural season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Drake -20 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Drake minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on extended ATS losing streaks but I certainly feel that Drake is in better position to end its skid in this spot. The Bulldogs couldn't have played much better in their last two games but the opposition ended up shooting well and keeping them from ATS victories (they did win both of those games straight-up). In those two contests, Drake committed just 16 turnovers and shot 45.7% from the field. By contrast, Omaha has turned the ball over a whopping 31 times over its last two contests. It did manage to shoot better than 47% from the field last time out but that was against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Washington squad. Omaha remains one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 59.1 points per game on 36.5% shooting this season. Drake has a chance to be the class of an ultra-competitive Missouri Valley Conference this season with five returning starters. Don't be fooled by the Bulldogs modest 5-3 record as their three losses came against potential NCAA Tournament teams in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas. Take Drake (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Young Boys Bern v. Manchester United -1.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Manchester United -1 goal over Young Boys at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Changes will be made to the Manchester United side as it has already secured advancement to the next round of Champions League play. That doesn't mean the Red Devils will roll over in this rematch with Young Boys after dropping a 2-1 decision in the reverse match in Switzerland back in September. Keep in mind, Man U grabbed an early 1-0 lead in that match before a red card foiled its gameplan shortly after. Here, the Red Devils will look to gain an ounce of revenge, even if the result means little to them. Young Boys desperately need a win but also some help to book advancement to the next round. They bring poor form to the table having struggled in league play, largely due to a number of key absences due to injury. Even without a number of its regular starts, I'm confident we'll see Manchester United secure victory here as interim manager Ralf Rangnick is determined to see his squad boost its confidence off Sunday's clean sheet victory over Crystal Palace and ahead of a weekend clash with lowly Norwich City in EPL action. Take Manchester United -1 (10*). |
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12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*). |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). |
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12-05-21 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg UNDER 45.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg at 4 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring overtime game between Saskatchewan and Calgary last week as the Riders advanced to the West Final with a 33-30 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold here as the defensive-minded Blue Bombers look to punch their ticket to a second straight Grey Cup. Riders road games have finished with totals of 42, 55, 40, 37, 33, 36 and 27 points this season. The lone outlier came in a contest against a bad Lions defense. In two previous meetings with the Bombers, the Riders only managed to score a grand total of 17 points. It's not surprising that we've seen the 'under' go 9-4-1 in the Bombers 14 games this season. After all, they completed fewer than 20 passes in all but three of those games while holding each of their final six opponents to 19 pass completions or less. RB Andrew Harris is still banged-up - just as he has been all season - but I would certainly expect him to be a workhorse again in this one, provided he's healthy enough to play. The Riders defense has been more of a 'bend but don't break' unit compared to the Blue Bombers shut-down defense. They do catch the Bombers offense having not played its starters in nearly a month (they had the benefit of rest after locking up the West Division title early). You would have to go back to September 2018 - nine meetings ago - to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 45 points. I'll stick with the trend here. Take the under (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Creighton as it hosts undefeated Iowa State on Saturday night. We actually won with the Cyclones in their outright upset win over Xavier in last week's NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn. They're off to an impressive 7-0 start that also includes a victory over a team that entered the season with National Title aspirations in Memphis. Still, I expect the Blue Jays to prove to be too much for the Cyclones on this night. Creighton has just one loss on the season and while it checks in with a poor 3-5 ATS record it was asked to lay more points than it is here tonight in four of those five previous ATS defeats. The Blue Jays do come in with some positive momentum after laying waste to a quality North Dakota State team last time out, winning by 25 points as eight-point favorites. While Creighton is known for its offense, it has put on a defensive clinic here at home this season, holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting. Here, we'll note that Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games after giving up 60 or less points, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 20.5 points. Take Creighton (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday. This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Islanders -135 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Islanders in Thursday's tough 2-1 overtime loss to the surging Sharks. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Saturday, however, as the Isles hit the road looking to pick up a crucial two points against the red hot Wings. New York has now dropped nine straight games, influenced largely by Covid-related absences. The Isles are as healthy as they've been in quite some time now though, and picking up a point in Thursday's overtime loss could certainly be viewed as a positive. Saturday's game opens a stretch of three in a row against likely non-playoff teams, so they'll need to take full advantage. While Detroit has won four games in a row, only one of those wins was a real head-turner and that came in Boston in a game where the Wings were outshot by a 42-16 margin. Here, we find the Wings averaging just 1.8 goals, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals the last 19 times they've played at home off a home win. Under coach Jeff Blashill, the Wings have gone 19-37 when coming off four or five wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Note that the Isles have taken each of the last three meetings in this series by a combined 16-4 margin and have come away victorious in four of their last five trips to Detroit. Take New York (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -6 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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12-03-21 | Fairfield v. Canisius OVER 141.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Canisius at 7 pm et on Friday. We've made just one play involving either of these teams this season and it was on the 'under' in Fairfield's 83-78 win over Stony Brook last week. In case you were wondering, we weren't close on that play as the final score eclipsed the total by 17 points. I won't make the same mistake again here. Fairfield's offense wasn't good last season but with virtually the entire squad returning there was plenty of potential entering the 2021-22 campaign. So far so good, as the Stags have scored 70+ points in five of six games and check in shooting 47.5% from the field and 37.6% from three-point range. They don't figure to face much resistance against Canisius as the Golden Griffins have allowed the opposition to shoot just shy of 47% from the field and may face a bit of a system shock here as the Stags average seven more three-point attempts than what they've faced so far this season. The fact that Canisius managed to score 75 points despite shooting sub 38% from the field against Cornell last time out is telling. The Griffins are playing at a fast pace, hoisting up a whopping 65 field goal attempts per game including 32 from three-point range. There's reason to believe they can go off offensively in this one against a Fairfield squad that has allowed anyone with a pulse to shoot 50% or better this season. This has the makings of a big game for super sixth-man Malek Green of Canisius. He's still working his way back to 100% health after foot surgery last season. He's averaging 16.6 points per game in just over 24 minutes per game this season and with the Griffins having not played since Sunday should see plenty of action in this one. Key cog Armon Harried shot a miserable 1-for-10 from the field against Cornell but should bounce back here. He's just one game removed from a 22-point effort against Coppin State. Virtually all trends point to an 'under' result here but I'm confident enough that both teams have made enough progression offensively that we could be in for a track meet on Friday night. With both projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAAC standings they can certainly use all the wins they can get - make no mistake, this is an important conference opener for both teams. I expect both to come in with an aggressive mentality, knowing they'll likely need to put up 70+ points to prevail. While the last meeting between these teams totaled only 119 points, it featured just seven made three-pointers. The two teams are combining to average 20 made threes per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). |
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12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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12-01-21 | South Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. While the Coastal Carolina football program has been making most of the noise going back to last season, the basketball team can play as well. The Chanticleers check in just 2-2 on the season but I expect them to give South Carolina a run on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in the process. It's worth noting though that they're turning the ball over 17 times a game compared to Coastal Carolina's average of only 10. Riding a winning streak and with a big showdown against Georgetown on deck, it would be easy for the relatively inexperienced to overlook the Chanticleers here. Note that South Carolina has been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in its last 15 games when coming off a win and has also been outscored by 3.0 points on average in its last 21 lined road contests. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). |
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11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*). |
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11-27-21 | Miami-FL -21 v. Duke | Top | 47-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*). |
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11-26-21 | Oklahoma State v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma State and Oral Roberts at 4 pm et on Friday. You might be hard-pressed to find a worse defensive team than Oral Roberts at this given moment in time. In two games against Division-I opponents, it ranks 343rd in the country in opponents floor percentage. Outside of that it has faced a laundry list of no-name schools to put it mildly. Now it has to contend with a red hot Oklahoma State squad that has hung 80+ points on it in each of the last two meetings over the last two years and checks in off a 96-point effort against Charleston. Oral Roberts knows it is going to have to light up the scoreboard in order to keep pace in this one, and I think it can. Note that the Cowboys opponents have averaged just 20 three-point attempts per game so far this season. Oral Roberts averages 34. In its last two matchups against Oklahoma State, ORU hoisted up 32 and 33 three-point attempts, scoring 75 and 78 points in those two contests. The 75-point effort came despite shooting a woeful 33.8% overall and 21.9% from beyond the arc in the 2019 matchup. The Cowboys ride into this game on a three-game 'over' streak and I think it continues for at least one more game. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-25-21 | Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +2.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Auburn at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ramblers fell just short on a bucket in the final seconds against favored Michigan State yesterday afternoon (but did manage the narrow cover). They'll certainly want to come away from this tournament with something and I like their chances of picking up a win against Auburn, which is fresh off an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss at the hands of UConn yesterday afternoon. Credit Loyola-Chicago to sticking to its guns and turning yesterday's game against Michigan State into somewhat of a slugfest. The Ramblers fell behind 9-0 right out of the gate in that one but quickly rallied and ultimately took the Spartans right down to the wire. That's what we want to see from a mid-major in an early statement game against a top level opponent. The case can certainly be made that Michigan State is by no means a national title contender (not at this point anyway) but it was a test nonetheless - one that Loyola-Chicago passed as far as I'm concerned. Now comes and excellent chance for the Ramblers to bounce right back and pick up a victory that would certainly look good on their resume come March. Auburn certainly entered this tournament with its eyes on a championship and is obviously disappointed to be playing in the third-place game on Thursday. I feel the Tigers are a little overrated at this point, carrying a number-19 ranking into this tournament despite having not really faced anyone of true substance. I don't think they're going to like the type of game that the Ramblers will undoubtedly present them with here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
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11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Valparaiso +7 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Tournament Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Monday (game was delayed due to leak in the roof). Valpo is still looking for its first victory as the Beacons (formerly the Crusaders). I think it has a shot at getting it on Monday, however. Off a narrow missed cover as a road underdog against Stanford, here we'll note that Valpo has gone an incredible 43-15 ATS in its last 58 games when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Beacons are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 60 points or less going back over the last 2+ seasons. Considering the Beacons don't have a lot of returning talent I see it as a positive that they've shot better than 41% from the field in each of their first three games this season. Jacksonville State is off to a 1-2 start with two of its three games decided by four points or less. Note that it is shooting just 67% from the free throw line and has benefited from facing three opponents that have been ice cold from the field (yes, JSU's defense has contributed to that but still). Note that JSU has been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 points after losing two of its last three games dealing with a 123-game sample size. Take Valparaiso (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs -11 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 179 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
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