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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*). |
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11-20-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*). |
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11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday. San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets might look like they're in a tough spot here as they play the second of back-to-back games after a shootout loss in Edmonton last night. I actually like their chances of bouncing back, however, noting that they've gone 11-1 in their lat 12 games following an OT/SO loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Of course, Winnipeg has proven to be a resilient team in recent years, going 22-11 in its last 33 games following a road loss of any kind over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks are playing as bad as any team in the league right now as far as I'm concerned and you have to figure head coach Travis Green's days behind the bench are numbered at this point. They'll be in better position to snap their losing skid when they host the Blackhawks on Sunday. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Ottawa +14 v. Montreal | Top | 19-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday. We've cashed a number of tickets backing the RedBlacks this season, in spite of their awful overall record. This is another favorable spot to back Ottawa as it wraps up its season by making the short trip to Montreal to face the Alouettes. Note that while the RedBlacks haven't won a game since September 28th, during their current six-game slide they've lost only twice by more than 13 points. Here, they face an Als squad that is playoff-bound and not likely to move out of the third spot in the East Division with Hamilton hosting a Saskatchewan team that has nothing to play for locked into the second spot in the West Division on Saturday. Got all that? Montreal has some injury concerns to deal with here as well. Top wide receiver Eugene Lewis has been limited at practice all week so it remains to be seen how many snaps he'll see on Friday. Meanwhile, Ottawa has actually gotten healthier down the stretch, recently welcoming back one of its best defensive players in Praise Martin-Oguike. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have quietly gotten rolling lately, going 6-2 over their last eight games with the only two losses coming by way of overtime. Here, the Bolts will head to Philadelphia, where they haven't dropped a game since January of 2017. The Flyers are coming off an overtime win over the Flames two nights ago. That's worth noting as they've given up an average of 5.4 goals and have been outscored by 2.9 goals on average the last eight times they've come off an overtime victory. In fact, the Flyers are 9-22 when coming off a win going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Worse still, they've gone a woeful 3-14 the last 17 times they've come off a one-goal victory, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning have been an excellent positive momentum team in similar situations to the one they're in tonight, noting that they're 10-1 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end against the red hot Ducks in Anaheim last night. Credit Washington for at least stealing a point in that game, losing the game in overtime. Here, I like the Caps to bounce right back as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Kings. L.A. has somewhat surprisingly posted seven wins in its last eight games. This is a bit of a tough spot, however, as it returns home 'fat and happy' off a successful four-game road trip that took it across two time zones up north. We'll note that the Kings are a woeful 2-13 the last 15 times they've come off four consecutive road games, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The last six times they've returned home off at least four straight road games they've averaged just 1.8 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Kings beat the Capitals, back in March of 2018. The Caps have come away victorious in each of their last two games in Los Angeles. The last time we saw them play here in late 2019 they were priced as a -150 favorite and skated to a 3-1 win. We're dealing with a much cheaper price to support them here and I like their chances of picking up another victory. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois -1 v. Buffalo | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). |
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11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Bills -11.5 v. Jets | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
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11-12-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 44 | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
CFL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Hamilton and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday night in Toronto. Hamilton's scores have quietly been creeping up as it has seen back-to-back and three of its last four games overall go 'over' the total. The Ti-Cats should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this one, especially when you consider the Argos will be without their defensive anchor in Charleston Hughes. The Argos defense has held up alright in the last two games but that was against two severely limited offenses in B.C. and Ottawa. Here, Toronto will be taking a step up in class against a Hamilton offense that has been led by a passing game that has completed 86 of its last 114 passes (75%) for right around 1,300 yards over the last four games alone. On the flip side, we have seen the Argos offense exceed expectations somewhat (at least my expectations) with QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson taking over the reins following Nick Arbuckle's departure. The Argos offense will get some help with the return of underrated RB D.J. Foster on Friday as well. Note that Toronto has put up at least 23 points in five of its last six games overall and has attempted 38 or more passes in each of its last four games. With the last two meetings in this series staying under the 50-point mark, there's reason to believe we'll see some positive regression to the mean here, noting that we haven't seen three straight matchups between these rivals stay under 50 since back in 2017. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-21 | Cal-Riverside v. Arizona State UNDER 142 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between UC-Riverside and Arizona State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Expectations are fairly high for both of these teams although Arizona State certainly boasts the loftier goals. The Sun Devils are hoping that a number of key transfers can help them rebound from a disastrous Covid-tinged 2020-21 season. Meanwhile, Riverside is hoping to build on the progress it made during a big 'step up' campaign last season. The Highlanders will once again hang their hats on their defensive play, which should be every bit as sound as it was a year ago. They drew a tough season-opening matchup on Tuesday but still managed to hold their own, allowing only 66 points while limiting San Diego State to 49 field goal attempts. The problem was their own three-point shots weren't falling (6-of-22 from three-point range) in an eventual 13-point loss as a 12.5-point underdog. Arizona State will look to play fast, just as it always has under Bobby Hurley. I do think the Highlanders are capable of frustrating the Sun Devils a bit in that regard though. Like Riverside, Arizona State struggled from beyond the arc in its season-opener, knocking down only 7-of-26 three-point attempts. The Sun Devils ultimately scored 76 points against Portland on Tuesday, but only managed to do so thanks to hoisting up 66 shots - a number I'm not convinced they can approach here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are coming off an inexplicable 5-2 loss to the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Sunday and I think that has a lot of bettors a little spooked to back them as they return home to host the expansion Kraken on Tuesday. We won't shy away, however. You could argue that the Knights essentially 'punted' that game in Detroit, starting backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit in what was a second of back-to-back and three-in-four situation. Prior to that contest Vegas had won consecutive games in Ottawa and Montreal, scoring 10 goals in the process. Despite Sunday's loss, I don't think the Knights will be returning home hanging their heads having won five of their last seven overall. Like most expansion teams, the Kraken have struggled to win games or even stay competitive on the road. They check in 1-6 on the road this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Knights have gone 15-4 when coming off a road loss by three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. They also check in allowing just 2.1 goals on average the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they gave up 5+ goals. While they're still missing a number of key players due to injury, that's certainly been factored into this price. Take Vegas (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Akron v. Western Michigan -25.5 | Top | 40-45 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NFL First Half Total of the Week. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We've taken advantage of some lofty first half totals on a number of occasions on Monday Night Football this season, including last week as we cashed the 'under' in the first half of the Giants-Chiefs matchup. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I see this as a fine spot for both offenses to get off to strong starts at Heinz Field. Chicago showed some signs of life offensively against San Francisco last week - even if it was in a losing effort. QB Justin Fields looked as comfortable throwing the football as he has all season. On Chicago's first drive of the game Fields was 4-for-4 for 46 yards passing - a drive that ultimately ended with a made field goal. In fact, all three of Chicago's first half drives resulted in points on the board - 13 in all. Pittsburgh's pass rush offers a difficult challenge for Fields and he'll undoubtedly take some sacks and hits but I do think his mobility helps and the Bears receivers should have an advantage against a Steelers secondary that has struggled against the pass. Also note that the Pittsburgh defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush, opening things up for underrated Bears rookie RB Khalil Herbert. Steelers dinosaur QB Ben Roethlisberger catches a break here as Khalil Mack remains sidelined for the Bears, taking away their best pass-rushing piece. They're also likely to be without another one of their top defenders in S Eddie Jackson. The Bears defense hasn't been stout against the run at the best of times and Steelers rookie RB Najee Harris is evolving into a bigger factor each week. He should go off in this matchup. Like the Steelers, the Bears secondary has generally been soft against opposing wide receivers. My concern with playing the full game 'over' in this one is the potential game script should the Steelers hold a lead in the second half. There's a good chance they elect to salt the game away with their ground attack in that scenario. In general, I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Chicago coaching staff drawing up the right plays in high-pressure situations late. Take the first half over (10*). |
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11-07-21 | Vikings v. Ravens OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Ravens most recent game two weeks ago at home against the Bengals. That turned out to be a 'rocking chair' variety winner as the Bengals exploded on an overrated Ravens defense. Here, I look for the Ravens offense to bounce back in a big way as they come off their bye week and face an undermanned Vikings defense that is without Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson among others. While I'm not sure the majority of casual bettors have taken notice, the Ravens offense is no longer the run-first unit we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. With no true bell-cow in the backfield, they've began to shift to a more pass-friendly offense and that should continue to pay dividends for 'over' backers moving forward. This is a favorable spot for Ravens WR Hollywood Brown to go off. Mark Andrews has been the focal point of the Baltimore passing game recently but he's at risk of getting locked up by the Vikes solid linebacking corps in this one. Look for the Ravens receiving corps to shine here. On the flip side, the Vikes offense didn't look good against the Cowboys last Sunday night. Perhaps Minnesota got caught looking past a Dak-less Cowboys squad. I simply chalk it up to inconsistency, something we've come to expect from Vikes QB Kirk Cousins. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot for Cousins and the loaded Minnesota offense. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should feast against a Ravens defense that has given up the fourth-most pass completions of 20 yards or more this season. Vikes RB Dalvin Cook is in a smash spot as well as the Ravens defensive front has been repeatedly shredded this season, giving up nine touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
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11-06-21 | Toronto v. Ottawa +10.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Year. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Toronto at 4 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for the RedBlacks who understandably find themselves as double-digit underdogs at home against the Argos on Saturday. When these two teams last met on October 6th in Toronto the Argos rolled to a 35-16 victory. Keep in mind, 21 of Toronto's points came on special teams or defensive touchdowns. Ottawa actually led that contest at halftime. The RedBlacks did a pretty good job of keeping the Argos offense in check in that game and I'm confident they can do so again here. Simply put, I haven't been high on the Argos offense since they dealt QB Nick Arbuckle to move forward with McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Note that Bethel-Thompson has thrown for just six touchdowns compared to seven interceptions this season. Now the Argos are dealing with some key injuries as well, including one to RB D.J. Foster. We'll make this play on the assumption that he's good to go but it's worth noting nonetheless. The RedBlacks are starting to get healthier. While QB Caleb Evans has done as much as he can running the offense, getting back Dominique Davis wouldn't hurt and he's got some limited work in at practice this week and is eligible to come off the injured list for Saturday's game. WR and KR DeVonte Dedmon is expected to return after a full week of practice as well. Defensively, DL and key pass rusher Praise Martin-Oguike has returned to practice this week as well. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week but if he can that's an added bonus as well. Note that there are a couple of trends supporting Ottawa here as well. CFL home teams that have lost five or six of their last seven games ATS, and have a losing record are on a long-term 82-45 ATS run. Better still, home teams off 5+ consecutive losses in Weeks 10 through 15 are on a long-term 33-10 ATS run. Too many points here as the RedBlacks show some pride and hand Toronto its third straight ATS loss. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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11-06-21 | North Texas -4.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday. Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*). |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State -3.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday. Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*). |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -106 | 78 h 56 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Colts overtime loss to the Titans on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as they stay home to host the upstart Jets on a short week on Thursday night. Mike White-mania has taken hold in New York after the QB led the Jets to a stunning 34-31 win over the Bengals on Sunday. Let's not get too carried away though. The Jets caught the Bengals in an obvious letdown spot off a monster blowout win over the rival Ravens the previous week. Cincinnati's defense might have got caught reading a little too much of their own press leading into that one and certainly appeared to overlook White's ability to move the Jets offense and put points on the board. Don't expect the Colts to fall into the same trap here. Indianapolis has to feel that the AFC South is still up for grabs, especially with the new that Titans RB Derrick Henry will miss 6-10 weeks with a foot injury. With that being said, Frank Reich probably doesn't want his QB Carson Wentz throwing the football 50+ times again like he did on Sunday against the Titans. We saw that the Jets defense can be opportunistic against the Bengals. Credit New York for limiting Cincinnati to just north of 300 total yards in that game. The majority of the Bengals offense in that game came thanks to turnovers from the Jets offense. Knowing that, I'm confident predicting a more conservative gameplan from Robert Saleh's Jets offense here. The Colts come in having scored 30+ points in three straight games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'under' is a long-term winner at 60-40 with the Colts playing at home off a loss, resulting in an average total of just 42.6 points. The 'under' is also 48-30 with the Jets playing on the road after losing two of their last three games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 37.6 points. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: We'll downgrade this play with the news that Sidney Crosby will be sidelined due to testing positive for Covid. I'm still on the Penguins in this spot but as a 6* play. We missed with the Penguins in their most recent game as they fell by a 4-2 score in a late collapse against the Devils on home ice. That was of course Sidney Crosby's much-awaited season debut for the Pens. While it didn't go as they had hoped, I do expect them to bounce back against the rival Flyers on Thursday night. Note that Pittsburgh is in an excellent situation here having gone 17-3 the last 20 times it has played at home after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Flyers are fresh off a 3-0 home victory over the still-winless Coyotes on Tuesday. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 9-19 the last 28 times it has come off a win, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Having won here in Pittsburgh by a 2-1 score last April, the Flyers will be looking to notch a second straight win at PPG Paints Arena. They haven't accomplished that feat since winning here in December 2018 and March 2019. I expect the Pens to avoid the same fate here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
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11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
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11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Stars v. Jets -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets got caught flat-footed against the Sharks on Saturday (we won with the 'under' in that game), perhaps overlooking a San Jose squad that was missing five players due to Covid protocols. Here, I look for the Jets to bounce back as they return home to host the reeling Stars on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off three straight losses, scoring just four goals in the process. Note that the Stars are just 2-11 after scoring a goal or less in their last game going back to last season (they're coming off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa), outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Worse still, Dallas is 0-6 the last six times it has gone on the road after playing two or more consecutive games at home, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets are a somewhat inexplicable 9-1 in their last 10 games following an overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that situation (they lost in overtime against the Sharks on Saturday). I'm more confident in backing them given they're coming off a one-goal loss in general, noting that they've gone 20-7 in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.3 goals along the way. The home team has taken the last four meetings in this series. You would have go to back to December of 2019 to find the last time Dallas skated to a win in Winnipeg. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NFL MNF First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is an obvious 'get right' spot for the Chiefs against a lowly Giants squad that looks ripe for the picking coming off a 25-3 win over the Panthers last week. Most are expecting the Chiefs offense to lay waste to a depleted Giants defense here but I believe another slow start from Patrick Mahomes and company could be in order. Keep in mind, the Chiefs are averaging only 8.7 points in the first half here at home this season. On the flip side, they're giving up a whopping 20.0 points on average in the first half at home - a number I certainly expect them to improve on against a Giants squad that will simply be looking to hold onto the football and effectively shorten this game given their lack of offensive weaponry due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the G-Men are averaging just shy of 7.0 points in the first half this season, topping out at 10 points through their first seven games. They reached that 10-point mark in the first half twice previously, in Dallas and Washington - more favorable matchups than the one they'll face here in my opinion. While the potential is certainly there for the Chiefs to come out and boatrace the Giants and take care of this first half total all on their own, given their inconsistency on offense I don't see it happening. Here, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 26-4 in the first half over the last 10 seasons when a team comes off an upset road loss by two touchdowns or more in the first half of the season, as is the case with the Chiefs here, resulting in an average total of just 17.8 points. That situation has gone a perfect 13-0 over the last five seasons. Take the first half under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Senators v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks are still looking for their first victory nearly a month into the season and with controversy swirling around the franchise, they're in desperate need of something positive at this point. The good news is, they've been playing a little better. Chicago has been right there in two of its last three games, suffering an overtime loss at home against the Maple Leafs and a 1-0 setback in St. Louis around an ugly performance in Carolina. While this is no time for excuses, there's no denying the 'Hawks have faced an extremely tough schedule to this point. This game against the Senators gives them a good opportunity to get something going with five of their next six games coming on home ice. Ottawa is coming off a win in Dallas on Friday night. I'm not sure being idle for the entire weekend was the best thing for a Sens team that is looking to build some positive momentum having won only three out of seven games so far this season. Note that Ottawa has dropped six straight meetings against Chicago, with its last victory in this series coming way back in 2016. After scoring nine goals in their last two games and coming off an effort that saw them allow just a single goal in Dallas, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Sens here. Note that they've allowed 4.0 goals have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Sunday MLB Free play. My selection is on Houston over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Sunday. As much as Braves fans are hoping this is the night that they end their World Series drought, I believe they're going to have to wait at least one more game. While the Braves are likely to go with another bullpen game, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez as he looks to make amends for a poor performance earlier in the series. Interestingly, he's been better on the road than at home this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 12 away starts. In his lone previous playoff road start he allowed just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. Of course, each of the last two games in this series could have gone either way. No matter how you spin it, using six different pitchers in last night's game wasn't ideal for Atlanta. Keep in mind, the Braves used five different pitchers two nights ago as well. While the Astros have gone with an 'all hands on deck' sort of approach as well, they at least have a proven starter capable of working at least five or six innings on Sunday. Take Houston. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Entering the season I had the Jaguars and Seahawks pegged as having two of the league's worst defenses. While both teams have trended to the 'under' through the first seven weeks of the season, that's had more to do with the inept nature of their offenses (and an injury to Russell Wilson for Seattle) than anything else. With that being said, I do see this as a potential breakout spot for both offenses. The Jags are coming off their bye week, giving them an extra week to perhaps add a couple of extra wrinkles to an offense that did show some signs of life prior to the bye. They certainly haven't been afraid to sling the ball all over the field, with rookie QB Trevor Lawrence attempting more than 30 passes in five of six games to date. The Seahawks offense has labored with journeyman QB Geno Smith at the helm but the big play potential is certainly still there with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the field (we saw that as Metcalf had a long touchdown catch on Monday night against New Orleans). Note that when we last saw the Jags they were giving up a whopping 354 passing yards against Tua Tagovailoa and a struggling Miami offense in London. While the Jags have posted a 2-4 o/u record this season, they've actually gone 'over' the number we're dealing with on Sunday in four of six games to date. Off Monday's staggeringly low-scoring game in Seattle, I believe Sunday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first matchup between these two teams fizzled as a banged-up Carson Wentz wasn't able to get anything going offensively for the Colts in a 25-16 loss in Tennessee, snapping a three-game 'over' streak in this series. Here, I expect things to go back to 'normal' in this series with a shootout in Indianapolis. The Colts offense is red hot right now and has been for a number of weeks. With that in mind, I expect offensive-minded head coach Frank Reich to orchestrate an aggressive offensive gameplan here, knowing that his team is going to need to put up plenty of points to outlast a surging Titans squad. Tennessee has come to life offensively over the last few weeks, scoring 98 points in three games - all victories. I still have my concerns when it comes to the Titans defense, however. They held the mighty Chiefs to only three points in a very strange game last Sunday but that had more to do with game script than anything else as the Titans got off to a blazing start and never looked back. Neither team has been particularly stout against the run this season with the Titans checking in having allowed north of 100 rush yards in six straight games (despite winning five of those) and the Colts having given up over 100 rushing yards in four straight and six of seven contests this season. Indy won its last two games by double-digit margins yet still gave up well over 300 yards rushing in those two contests. I point that out as both teams boast all-world running backs and it really opens everything up for the two offenses. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-2 the last 12 times the Titans have come off three wins in their last four games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 56.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This hasn't been a particularly high-scoring series through two games but that's only served to afford us a reasonable total to work with as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 17-5 in Houston's last 22 games as a road underdog, resulting in an average total of 11.2 runs scored. In fact, you would have to go back to August 3rd to find the last time an Astros road game in which they were an underdog finished 'under' the total. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Braves have played at home off consecutive 'under' results (you have to go back four games to find their last 'over' result as Game 2 of this series settled on a 'push'), good for an average total of 10.4 runs in that spot. Astros starter Luis Garcia hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as at home this season, posting a 4.67 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's coming off his best start of the postseason as he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball against the Red Sox in the ALCS, but that was at home. Braves starter Ian Anderson hasn't worked more than five innings in any of his three previous starts in these playoffs. He's been good, but certainly not great and here we'll note that he has made three starts against American League opponents this season and hasn't fared well, recording a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Note that the Braves have given Anderson a whopping 6.7 runs per start of support here at home this season. The Astros bullpen has not been all that reliable on the road this season, posting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with only 19 saves converted compared to 17 blown. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has recorded a 4.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 20 saves converted and 14 blown at home. Against American League foes, the Braves relief corps has posted an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with only three saves converted and six blown. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 42.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CFL Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Ottawa at 7 pm et on Friday. While I'm not necessarily anticipating a shootout in this game, I do feel the total has been set far too low, largely due to the inept nature of the RedBlacks offense in recent weeks. There is reason for some optimism when it comes to the Ottawa offense entering this game, however. Calgary is coming off four straight division games, including three hard-fought battles against the Roughriders. The Stamps defense has certainly held up well but I do feel that this is a spot where we could see them suffer a letdown of sorts, noting that they've allowed at least 22 points in all three previous matchups against East Division opponents this season. Yes, Ottawa has been dreadful on offense in recent weeks but it did recently add former Pittsburgh Steelers QB Duck Hodges and he should push current starting QB Caleb Evans, who has shown some positive flashes, as we wind down the stretch this season. It's the defensive side of the football where I'm most concerned for the RedBlacks as they've been ravaged by injuries to a unit that wasn't all that great to begin with. They've been absolutely lit up in recent weeks, 'letting go of the rope' so to speak as they near the end of a trying season. Over the last two games, they've allowed 59 points while giving up 247 rushing yards and over 600 passing yards. The fact that they still allowed 27 points despite benefiting from three turnovers against Montreal two weeks ago was telling. While Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been turnover-prone, here he'll benefit from facing a RedBlacks secondary that is a shell of its former self due in large part to a cluster of injuries. Interestingly, Calgary has had a better scoring offense on the road than at home, averaging 25.2 points per game in enemy territory compared to its 22.1 ppg overall scoring average. As for Ottawa, it has been marginally better at putting points on the board at home, averaging 19.6 points per game compared to its 15.6 ppg season scoring average. Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Everything seems to be stacked against the Packers in this one with the news coming down that both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are on the Covid-19 list and unlikely to play on Thursday. That adds to an already impressive (not in a good way) list of players slated to miss, including CB Jaire Alexander and pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith. However, last time I checked, the Packers still had QB Aaron Rodgers and do-it-all RB Aaron Jones. We're talking about a team that has had to deal with Adams absence due to injury before and on those occasions, Rodgers has actually thrived. I really like the setup here with the Packers coming off a less-than-dominant performance against Washington last week (they still won by two touchdowns) and the Cardinals fresh off a complete dismantling of the lowly Texans at home. Here, we find the Packers in a terrific situation that has gone 55-22 ATS over the last 10 seasons in which we fade favorites priced between -3.5 and -10 that outscore the opposition by an average of 10+ points per game and come off a contest in which they allowed 14 points or less. Also note that the Cardinals are 0-6 ATS the last six times they've played at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100+ total yards over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that situation. They're a miserable 3-16 ATS the last 19 times that situation has come up but with the total yards advantage adjusted to 150. As for the Packers, they're a solid 12-4 ATS the last 16 times they've played with six or less days' rest, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points in that spot. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Avalanche -115 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Avalanche here as there's no question the Blues have been the superior team through the first couple of weeks of the season. In fact, St. Louis has already skated to a 5-3 win over Colorado, on the road no less. Apart from that victory, the Blues haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents, however. After the game in Colorado they traveled to Arizona to face a Coyotes team that is still winless on the season. Next came a stop in Las Vegas, where they took on a Golden Knights squad missing two of its best players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Most recently, the Blues hosted a two-game home set against the Kings, who are expected to be one of the Western Conference's weakest teams. You get the picture. The Avs on the other hand have had no gimmes, perhaps other than a season-opening win over the hapless Blackhawks. Their three previous road games came against the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. They managed to pick up only one victory in those three games and followed that trip with a tough home loss to the Knights two nights ago. Needless to say this is a game the Avs clearly have circled on their calendar (not that I'm a big proponent of backing teams based on motivation alone - every team is motivated). What I will note here is that the Blues are just 8-15 in their last 23 games after scoring 3+ goals in four or more consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, as they average just 2.6 goals in that spot. These two teams have faced each other 16 times since the start of 2020. Only once over that stretch has St. Louis managed to register consecutive wins. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Blues will be without one of their leaders for an indefinite period of time as Ryan O'Reilly is in Covid protocol. Take Colorado (10*). |
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10-28-21 | South Florida v. East Carolina -9.5 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
MLB First Five Innings World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: There's a discrepancy in first five innings totals being offered at a variety of books in advance of this one. I'm fine with playing the 'over' as high as 4.5 runs. Both of these teams closed out their respective LCS' with relatively low-scoring games but that hasn't been the norm during these playoffs. The Braves enter this series having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. The Astros have seen the 'over' cash in eight of their last nine and 11 of their last 13 contests. Here, rather than play the full game 'over' the total we'll stick with the first five innings only. Charlie Morton gets the call for the Braves. The veteran right-hander's best start of the playoffs to date was his first, back in the NLDS against Milwaukee. In two starts since then he has allowed seven hits, seven walks and four earned runs in only 8 1/3 innings, striking out 10 along the way. Keep in mind, he struck out nine in his first start of the postseason. He didn't look confident in his command in his lone start against the Dodgers and now faces an even tougher opponent with the Astros entering this series hitting .287 as a team and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last seven contests. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. As we predicted in our play on the 'under' (which we lost thanks to a late explosion from the Astros offense) in his most recent start, Valdez matched up well against the Red Sox, and at Fenway Park in particular. Here, I'm not sure he'll be so fortunate. Note that Valdez owns a 1.48 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with nine of those going 'over' the total. In his two previous playoff starts here at home he was tagged for six earned runs on 13 hits in only seven innings of work. By playing the first five innings only we'll aim to avoid two bullpens that have been admittedly sharp. Between the two 'pens, we've seen just one blown save in these playoffs with the Braves relief corps having posted a 3.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and the Astros checking in with a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams -16 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
NFC Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Lions can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They have an offense that can't play from behind. It's clearly a recipe for disaster as they head across the country to face the Rams on Sunday afternoon. You can throw motivation out the window - we've all heard enough about the Jared Goff-Matt Stafford angle in this one. The simple fact is, the Lions offense is broken - as evidenced by the fact that they've been shut out in the first half in three of their last four games and have managed to score no more than 17 points in any of their last five contests since an anomaly of a performance in the second half against the 49ers way back in Week 1. QB Jared Goff is firmly planted in the hot seat right now and I'm not convinced that head coach Dan Campbell calling him out publicly after last week's game will lead to positive results. In fact, I'm quite certain of the opposite. The Rams 'got right' on a two-game road trip through Seattle and New York and now return home for this absolute smash spot. Los Angeles is well-armed to dismantle a fading Lions defense while the Rams own defense should feast on a Lions offense that has few weapons, some of which are banged-up right now including TE T.J. Hockenson. This is the continuation of a dream three-game stretch for the Rams which began with a 27-point rout of the Giants last week. I'm confident we'll see them roll by 20+ in all three games - a stretch that concludes with a trip to Houston on Halloween. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
AFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Lamar Jackson has made a habit of laying waste to the Bengals defense and as he checks into this game playing some of the best football of his career, we can anticipate more of the same on Sunday. The question when it comes to the total in this game is whether Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense can be along for the ride and help this one 'over' the very reasonable number. I believe he and they can and will. The Chargers quite simply didn't show up for last week's much-hyped showdown with the Ravens. We won with Baltimore in that game as the Ravens jumped ahead early and salted the game away from there. Here, I believe we'll see the Bengals find a way to stick around in this game, just as they have in virtually every game this season. The Ravens defense hasn't been particularly dominant against the run or the pass - due to injuries or otherwise. Last week's solid boxscore numbers for the defense had everything to do with the Chargers throwing their offensive gameplan out the window after the deficit got out of hand. While this game isn't likely to be a true shootout, it doesn't have to be for us to cash this ticket given the range the total currently sits in. Interestingly, the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Ravens have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 53.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-21 | UTSA v. Louisiana Tech +6.5 | Top | 45-16 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday. Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | San Jose State v. UNLV +5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday. We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
NBA TV Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll go the contrarian route here and back the 'under' with this total having dropped several points since opening. Given the way last season played out for both of these teams it's no real surprise to see the total move in that direction. There are bettors that are just learning that Klay Thompson, while set to return this season, won't be ready for the start of the campaign. Still, as the relatively short pointspread indicates, I believe the Warriors can keep this game competitive. The Lakers had their share of struggles defending their title last season, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis in and out of the lineup due to injuries and a somewhat lacking supporting cast. Now we're talking about a different Lakers squad that I believe we'll be a lot more fun to watch with the likes of Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony among those joining the fold. I'm not convinced either of these teams will be ready to come out playing hard-nosed defense. Note that the Lakers allowed at least 111 points in all six preseason contests - all losses. Meanwhile, the Warriors put up 111 points or more in all five preseason games, going undefeated along the way. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Boston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams enter Game 3 of the ALCS riding five-game 'over' streaks and I don't believe those streaks are in jeopardy of ending here. Jose Uquidy will get his first start of the postseason for the Astros. While his overall numbers this season are solid, here he runs into a red hot Red Sox lineup, noting that he hasn't really been fooling anyone, topping out at six strikeouts in his last nine starts. I'll also point out that the 'over' has gone 12-4 when Urquidy starts with a posted total of between 8.5 and 10.0 runs, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 11.1 runs scored. Eduardo Rodriguez made two starts for the Red Sox in the ALDS but wasn't particularly sharp, allowing four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. The Astros faced him twice during the regular season, plating 12 earned runs in just 9 1/3 innings. You would have to go back six home starts - all the way to August 15th - to find the last time Rodriguez was involved in a game at Fenway Park that didn't reach at least nine total runs. He never looked all that comfortable pitching at home this season, posting a 5.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start. Neither bullpen is all that imposing. The Astros 'pen has converted just 19 saves while blowing 17 on the road this season. The Sox 'pen hasn't been much better at home, converting 21 saves while blowing 15. Note that the Boston relief corps has yet to convert a save in the playoffs while blowing three. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts -10 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no reason for the Colts to be down on themselves following an overtime loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. If anything, they should bring positive momentum from that game and now find themselves in a smash spot against the Texans, who may not win another game this season (that's not a stretch). Houston fell just short at home against the Patriots last week - who were in a clear flat spot off their matchup with Tom Brady and the Bucs. Now the Texans go into Indianapolis without two key cogs on their offensive line in Justin Britt and Laremy Tunsil. The Colts offense has been quietly effective over the last two weeks, running fot 139 and 123 yards while QB Carson Wentz has come to life, completing 49-of-67 passes for 600 yards over that stretch. With one of the more underrated backfields in the entire NFL, the Colts have the ability to salt this game away should they build a considerable second half lead, as we expect. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Ravens keep finding ways to win and I don't expect the Chargers to be the ones to end their winning streak on Sunday afternoon. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles noting that it has gone a miserable 2-10 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in its last game over the last three seasons. The Browns were set up on a tee for the Chargers last Sunday in Los Angeles yet they needed a fourth quarter rally to earn the win (and cover). We actually won with the Bolts in that contest. Meanwhile, the Ravens had no business winning against the Colts last Monday night but pulling out unlikely wins has been their M.O. this season and here they comfortably find themselves in the second game of a four-game homestand. QB Lamar Jackson is balling out right now and while the Chargers defense offers a considerable challenge, I think he'll be up for it after completing 37-of-43 passes for 437 yards on Monday night. While the talent is there, save for the Raiders and Washington Football Team, the Chargers haven't really been able to stop anyone this season. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 86 h 32 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday. While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 52 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It's going to take a monumental defensive effort to slow the Bucs offense right now (yes, I realize they're just one game removed from a heavy rain-induced slugfest in New England) as they feature a number of elite players performing at a career-best levels. Tom Brady is averaging north of 350 passing yards per game and has already racked up 15 touchdown passes. Mike Evans and Antonio Brown are playing out of their minds right now while we're bound to see Chris Godwin explode any week now, noting that he drew a whopping 11 targets against the Dolphins last Sunday. The Eagles haven't been tough against the pass in recent years and that certainly hasn't changed here in 2021, particularly against elite opposing quarterbacks (ugly performances against Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes come to mind). The only difference with the Eagles defense this year is that they're struggling to stop the run as well, allowing north of 4.5 yards per rush. I like the fact that the Bucs have finally settled on Lenny Fournette in a lead-back role. The Bucs aren't without their issues defensively, largely due to injuries in their secondary. Antoine Winfield Jr. is the latest key cog to go down with an injury. While it's possible he plays, that's no certainty as he deals with a concussion on a short week. With the Eagles low-scoring 21-18 win over the defensive-minded Panthers fresh in everyone's minds, we're able to take advantage of a reasonable total here. Keep in mind, Philadelphia has also been involved in games totaling 62 points against Dallas (we won with the 'over' in that one) and 72 points against Kansas City. Game script has resulted in a few other low-scoring affairs, but in this spot, I fully expect to see the Eagles playing from behind for much of the night - just as they were in those high-scoring affairs against the Cowboys and Chiefs. While I'm not all that high on Jalen Hurts as the long-term solution for the Eagles at quarterback, there's no denying he's a baller, certainly capable of taking advantage of a banged-up, underperforming Bucs defense. Even the punchless Dolphins offense, led by Jacoby Brissett, was able to put up 17 points just past the midway point of the third quarter last week, on the road no less. Miami's offense fizzled from there while the Bucs kept pouring it on, as they're known to do, scoring three unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns. As much as I like playing primetime 'unders', I don't believe this matchup fits the bill. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -138 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Columbus over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Coyotes have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams this season and while the Blue Jackets are by no means a Stanley Cup contender, I do think they'll be in the hunt for the playoffs and could be better than most are projecting if they can overcome a few key losses. I actually like the make-up of this Jackets squad. Cam Atkinson is gone but he was a general disappointment last season. Seth Jones has also moved on but he already had one foot out the door all of last season. Gone is the distraction of former head coach John Tortorella and his feuds with players. It feels like a fresh start for the Jackets and I expect them to get off to a strong start. The Coyotes have gone through some changes, most notably dealing one of their best offensive threats in Conor Garland to Vancouver. This is a team that really lacks an identity at this point and I expect them to be in tough opening the campaign on the road, where Columbus has traditionally found plenty of success. Take Columbus (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NLDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the Giants coming off a 1-0 victory last night, pushing the Dodgers to the brink of elimination in the process, I like the way Game 4 sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 15-4 with the Giants coming off an underdog win over a division opponent this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of 10.7 runs. The 'over' also checks 38-22 with San Francisco coming off a game in which it gave up one run or less over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 10.5 runs. The Dodgers, meanwhile, check in averaging 5.9 runs per game when coming off a loss against a division opponent in a game in which they were favored this season. That situation has produced an average total of 9.9 runs. They also average 5.5 runs per game when playing at home after being involved in a game that saw both teams score three runs or less, good for an average total of 8.4 runs. Neither of tonight's starters are all that imposing. For San Francisco's part, it averages 5.5 runs per game after scoring two runs or less in consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here as well. The Dodgers will be getting their seventh look at Anthony DeSclafani this season. They tagged him for 22 earned runs in 27 innings during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have yet to announce their starter but we can assume it will be 'all hands on deck' in this elimination game. Take the over (10*). |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-11-21 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Montreal | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Ottawa plus the points over Montreal at 1 pm et on Monday. Caleb Evans had his 'welcome to the CFL' moment in last Wednesday's 35-16 rout at the hands of the Argos. In fact he had two. Evans threw a pair of costly pick-sixes that turned that game from a competitive affair into a blowout. I'm still high on Evans and expect him to bounce back and take better care of the football in Monday's Canadian Thanksgiving showdown in Montreal. The RedBlacks fall into an excellent situation here as underdogs off a division loss have gone 67-32 when facing an opponent coming off an outright underdog win, as is the case with Montreal following its overtime victory in Hamilton last week. The Als crushed the RedBlacks the last time these two teams met back on September 3rd. Montreal gained 183 yards on the ground in that game but will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance without RB William Stanback on Monday (he's been ruled out due to injured ribs). QB Vernon Adams is playing through a nagging foot injury as well. Take Ottawa (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -103 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco plus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up for the 49ers as they look to bounce back from consecutive home losses against the Packers and Seahawks while facing a Cardinals squad that is coming off a monumental beatdown of the Rams, on the road no less, last week. As good as the Cardinals have been, I don't find them to be all that intimidating of a team to bet against simply due to the leaky nature of their defense. The fact that Arizona is allowing 5.2 yards per rush this season sets the Niners up well in this spot, even with San Francisco still banged-up at the running back position. Of course, the big news here is that Trey Lance is expected to get his first start for San Francisco, representing a major upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo in my opinion. Only six teams have been flamed for more quarterback rushing yards than the Cards this season, which really helps open up the playbook for dual-threat Lance in this spot. Note that the 49ers have averaged 28.5 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 4.7 points the last 10 times they've played on the road off an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. They've gone an impressive 16-5 ATS the last 21 times they've come off an outright loss against a division opponent as a favorite, outscoring the opposition by eight points on average in that situation. The Cards are certainly not a trustworthy home favorite, having gone 1-8 ATS in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, actually getting outscored by 1.9 points on average. Take San Francisco (10*). |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout as the Cardinals return home off a huge win over the Rams to host another division foe, the 49ers, on Sunday afternoon in Glendale. This total has actually dropped since opening, a curious move considering the absence of Jimmy G. actually leads me to upgrade the Niners offense with rookie Trey Lance at the helm. Lance has had enough reps with the ones both in the preseason and in limited work during the regular season to leave me confident with him running the offense against a very beatable Cardinals defense on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, only six teams have given up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks than Arizona this season. In general, the Cards haven't been able to stop opposing running games, giving up well north of five yards per rush. Of course, we know that the Cards can sling it with QB Kyler Murray turning in an MVP caliber season so far. There's little reason to expect Arizona to slow down offensively in this one with the 49ers once again proving to be an overrated defensive squad due to injuries and otherwise. Note that the 'over' has gone 9-1 the last 10 times the 49ers have played on the road after getting upset as a home favorite against a division opponent, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 52.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Boston at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a whopping 20 runs scored in Game 2 of this series on Friday and I expect to see plenty of offense again in Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-13 with the Rays playing on the road against division opponents this season with those games averaging 11.3 total runs. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 16-5 after the Red Sox score 10 runs or more in a game over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 11.5 runs scored. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He'll inexplicably be facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this season. While he's pitched well against them, you have to wonder if at some point Boston begins to figure him out. Note that he has posted an awful 50.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. With Rasmussen averaging just over four innings per start we should see plenty of a Rays bullpen that owns a collective 4.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi has arguably been the team's most reliable starter this season. However, here he'll be facing the Rays for the fifth time this season. Note that his previous four starts against them have totaled 11, 14, 28 and 3 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has recorded a collective 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*). |
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10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Stanford v. Arizona State -12.5 | Top | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday. I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*). |
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10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks v. Winnipeg UNDER 48.5 | Top | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
CFL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Elks got blasted against the RedBlacks of all teams last week but they'll aim to get back on track here with QB Trevor Harris returning to the field. The argument could be made that Edmonton essentially 'punted' that midweek game in Ottawa, knowing Harris would be back on the field for this division game against the Blue Bombers. Regardless, I do expect the Elks to show up with a much stronger effort here. Having Harris back should allow the offense to get back in rhythm and give the defense a break by staying on the field for extended stretches. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Elks bust out on the scoreboard against arguably the league's best defense in Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers are coming off three straight 30+ point performances but I wouldn't count on that continuing tonight. This is a team that's built on the strength of its defense. Prior to its most recent three-game stretch it had been held to 23 points or less in its first four games this season. I still see QB Zach Collaros as more of a 'game manager' than anything else at this stage of his career. He threw the football 34 times in last week's blowout win over the Lions but I'm not sure we'll see such an aggressive offensive gameplan against a tougher defensive opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Elks have allowed 34+ points in consecutive games, with that situation producing an average total of just 43.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-4 the last 22 times the Bombers have come off three or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot leading to a total of just 44.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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