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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-22 | White Sox -150 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
A.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Royals got the better of the White Sox in the second half of yesterday's day-night double-header but I look for Chicago to answer back, at least early on, in Wednesday's contest. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as we're not all that interested in involving a White Sox bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting an ERA north of eight and a WHIP approaching 1.80 over the last seven games. Lucas Giolito will get the start for Chicago on Wednesday. Covid quarantine gave him a couple of extra days off since his last outing, perhaps a good thing after he worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. He was sharp last time out, allowing just one earned run over seven innings in a 4-1 victory over the Guardians. Zack Greinke will counter for Kansas City. He'll be making his second consecutive start on four days' rest and struggled in his most recent outing, allowing five earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in Colorado. He's been tagged for 18 hits and seven earned runs over his last two starts, covering a span of just 10 1/3 innings. This will be Chicago's second look at Greinke in less than a month after reaching him for three earned runs over six innings in a 7-3 victory on April 27th. Look for the Sox to improve on those numbers early in this game. Take Chicago first five innings (10*). |
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05-18-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect this series to play out anything like these two teams' high-scoring opening round series'. We inexplicably saw 7+ goals in all seven games between the Rangers and Penguins while the Canes saw six of their seven games against the Bruins total at least six goals. I expect the scoring to settle down considerably in the round two opener between these two squads on Wednesday, noting that the 'under' is 7-1 with the Rangers coming off an overtime win this season, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. The 'under' is 28-16 with the Canes playing at home against division opponents over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.2 goals. The last time these two teams faced each other here in Raleigh, the Rangers skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory back on March 30th. The 'under' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Lynx v. Sparks OVER 160 | Top | 87-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday. As a perennial title contender, the Lynx certainly aren't accustomed to long losing streaks. They check into this game off four consecutive losses to open the season though. You would have to go all the way back to their season-opener against Seattle to find the last time they posted an 'over' result. I look for that to change here. Minnesota has seemingly gotten stronger with each passing game from an offensive standpoint and could potentially get Kayla McBride back in the lineup to give it an additional boost here. The Lynx have scored 74+ points in three of their four games this season and got to 78 points last time out despite getting off only 59 field goal attempts. We can anticipate the pace ticking up in this one as Los Angeles has yielded its opponents 70 (aided by overtime), 78, 69 and 70 field goal attempts in its first four games this season. The Sparks have been fortunate that their opponents haven't done a good job of taking advantage of all of those scoring opportunities - I think that's had more to do with shaky early season shooting rather than anything L.A. is doing defensively. Playing their fourth straight road game to open the campaign, it wasn't all that surprising to see the Sparks struggle offensively in Connecticut on Saturday. Off that 60-point performance I look for them to bounce back in their home-opener noting that Lynx opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 35, 29, 31 and 28 field goals through four games. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). |
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05-17-22 | Angels -121 v. Rangers | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers got the better of the Angeles in the opener of this series last night but I look for Los Angeles to answer back on Tuesday. Reid Detmers makes his return to the mound after tossing a no-hitter for the Angels in his last start. While he struggled in his first outing against the Rangers this season, allowing five earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings, he's looked like a different pitcher since, allowing only six earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 23 2/3 innings with the Angels winning three of those four games. While most will be expecting Detmers to suffer a letdown of sorts here, I believe that is more likely to happen to Rangers starter Taylor Hearn, who tossed five shutout innings last time out but will now pitch on just four days' rest. He has already made five home appearances this season and hasn't fared particularly well, recording a 3.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. This will be Los Angeles' fourth time facing Hearn since last September, having scored 10 runs off of him in 16 previous innings. As far as the bullpens go, the Angels relief corps has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.30 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown. The Rangers 'pen has recorded a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-16-22 | Twins v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring series finales on getaway day yesterday but I look for a different story to unfold at the Coliseum on Monday night. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-3 with the Twins coming off consecutive games in which they scored three runs or less over the last two seasons, with that situation resulting in an average total of 12.1 runs. In that situation this season, we've seen the Twins average 6.1 runs per game with an average total of 8.9 runs (nine-game sample size). The A's bats have been quiet but they should have ample opportunity to bust out here as they face Twins starter Chris Archer pitching on four days' rest. Archer has seen five of his six starts this season total at least eight runs. He's been tagged for at least one home run in five straight starts and checks in having allowed six earned runs on 10 hits over just seven innings of work in his last two outings. The A's will counter with rookie Zach Logue. He'll also be pitching on just four days' rest. He was terrific in his most recent start, tossing seven shutout innings but that came against the light-hitting Tigers. This will actually be his second start against Minnesota this season which I believe gives the Twins hitters an advantage. They reached him for a pair of home runs over five innings back on May 6th. Take the over (10*). |
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05-16-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves let one get away against the Padres yesterday, eventually falling by a 7-3 score in extra innings. Atlanta's last winning series came last weekend against the Brewers and I look for it to get this return match in Milwaukee off to a positive start as well. Note that Atlanta checks in 31-13 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Brewers are just 29-32, outscored by 0.6 runs on average, when playing at home after winning two of their last three games, which is the case here following a series win in Miami. Additionally, Atlanta has bounced back nicely following gut-wrenching losses, noting that it has allowed just 2.9 runs per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.0 run when playing on the road after a game in which it blew a save over the last three seasons (18-game sample size), which is the situation here. Ian Anderson owns a 2-0 team record in two career outings against the Brewers while Freddy Peralta has recorded an even 2-2 team record in four career starts against Atlanta (both wins came by a single run so 0-4 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line). Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (10*). |
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05-16-22 | Fiorentina v. Sampdoria UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sampdoria and Fiorentina at 12:30 pm et on Monday. We cashed an 'under' play in a match involving Fiorentina last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. I like the setup in this one as Fiorentina sits in seventh place in the Serie A table, currently in line to qualify for Conference League play, but tied point-wise with eighth-place Atlanta. This is Fiorentina's match in hand. It will certainly want to come away with at least a point here but Sampdoria has proven to be a 'tough out' at home, with just a -6 goal differential. Fiorentina has been rather punchless away from home, sitting just 12th in the table when factoring in only those 'away' matches, where it owns a -7 goal differential. Note that Sampdoria is just four points clear of relegation in the Serie A table and could certainly use at least a point from this contest. It has seen six of its last seven matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Fiorentina will need to be careful here noting that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches. This has generally been a high-scoring series with both sides finding the back of the net in each of the last 10 meetings. I believe that is only serving to provide us value with the 'under' here with that I consider to be distinctly different circumstances than we've seen in recent clashes. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Stars v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
First Round Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We've already seen the three games played in Calgary in this series total just 3, 1 and 4 goals and I anticipate more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday. Nothing has come all that easy for the Flames in this series, despite the fact that they've outplayed the Stars most of the way. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has stood on his head at times and as a result Calgary has managed to find the back of the net just 12 times through six games. The good news is, the Flames have been ultra-stingy defensively here at home all season, giving up only 2.3 goals per contest. Scoring has been an issue for the Stars on the road all season, averaging just 2.5 goals per game. When playing on the road following a home game over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), they've averaged just 2.2 goals per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -173 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Philadelphia at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers desperately need Julio Urias to give them a lift as he starts after Walker Buehler had his outing moved up and struggled in last night's eventual 12-10 loss - the Dodgers third defeat in a row and fourth out of their last five. More than anything else, I'm eager to fade Phillies starter Ranger Suarez here. He'll be starting on just four days' rest for the third time this season. In his two previous outings on short rest this season he allowed 13 hits, five earned runs and two home runs while striking out seven and walking four in 11 innings. It's not as if Los Angeles isn't hitting right now - quite the opposite, in fact. The Dodgers have racked up 31 runs over their last four games. While the Phillies are hot right now, winners of three games in a row, they're still just 7-8 on the road this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). |
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05-12-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -122 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Non-Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. Home ice advantage has mattered in this playoff series. That's actually an understatement as the home team has outscored the opposition by a 24-8 margin through the first five games with all five of those contests decided by 2+ goals. The Bruins did welcome Charlie McAvoy back from Covid protocols last time out but it wasn't enough as they dug themselves an early hole and never recovered. I expect a different story to play out on Thursday. Note that Boston has allowed just 1.9 goals per game and outscored opponents by 0.8 goals on average when playing at home after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons (18-game sample size), as is the case here. On the flip side, the Canes have gone 16-25 when playing on the road after winning five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game while being outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. While it's not well-advised to employ such a hot-and-cold style, especially at this time of year, the Bruins have the talent on hand to 'flip the switch' so to speak. We saw it when the scene shifted to Boston earlier this season as the B's looked like a completely different team in Games 3 and 4 on home ice. Note that they check in 5-1 off a loss by 4+ goals this season and 10-4 after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. Take Boston (10*). |
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05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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05-11-22 | Sparks v. Dream UNDER 161.5 | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Sparks season-opening 98-91 overtime win in Chicago but also cashed the 'under' in Atlanta's only previous game - a 66-59 victory in Dallas. Here, I believe we're working with an inflated total, largely due to Los Angeles' previous two games finding their way 'over' the total. The Sparks have shot exceptionally well in their first two games but I question whether they'll keep it up for a third consecutive road game to open the campaign. Liz Cambage has given the offense a big boost but the Dream to have plenty of bodies to throw at her and perhaps limit her effectiveness from the field. While the Dream were victorious in their season-opener, there were certainly signs that their offense will remain a work-in-progress. They knocked down just 20-of-63 field goal attempts against what will likely be a mediocre Wings defense. The fact that highly-touted draft pick Rhyne Howard led the team in scoring was encouraging but she had just 16 points. A top prospect from last year's draft class, Aari McDonald, continued to struggle, failing to knock down any of her three field goal attempts while scoring just one point in 17 minutes. The 'under' cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams last season. The only matchup that went 'over' the total still reached just 165 points and that was thanks only to both teams getting into the 80's in terms of FG attempts, something I don't anticipate seeing here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). |
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05-10-22 | Astros v. Twins OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
American League Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off a string of low-scoring games. That doesn't mean we'll see the same type of contest play out on Tuesday in Minnesota, however. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-14 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 9.8 runs in that situation. The 'over' is also a long-term 207-160 with Houston playing on the road after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games, which is also the case here. As for Minnesota, it has seen the 'over' go 12-3 after plating four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 11.0 runs scored in that spot. While we do have a fine pitching matchup here with Justin Verlander going up against Joe Ryan, I'm willing to bet on the bats waking from their slumber following a much-needed off day on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). |
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05-10-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Carolina at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Bruins exploded for nine goals in Games 3 and 4 of this series, evening up proceedings at two games apiece. That was at home though. Now they go back on the road, where they average less than 3.0 goals per game this season and scored just three goals in Games 1 and 2 combined. The Hurricanes have been incredibly stingy at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game in Raleigh. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 24-18-1 here in Carolina. With all of that being said, we're still working with a '6' here as all four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I expect that to change on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Bruins having scored 4+ goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of only 5.3 goals. The 'under' is 16-6 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. While this playoff series has been high-scoring, it's worth noting that the previous three meetings between these two teams in Carolina all totalled four goals or less, including a 3-0 Canes victory earlier this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Las Vegas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are off to perfect 2-0 starts to the campaign. For the Aces, perhaps the hot start was to be expected as they've been one of the league's best teams for a number of years. While the Mystics are just a couple of years removed from a WNBA championship, they've been up and down as a franchise. I am high on Washington this season, however, already cashing one ticket with it in its season-opening rout of Indiana. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Mystics as I feel they have plenty of upside in this spot and will be out to make a statement that Sunday's double-digit win in Minnesota was no fluke. Washington has managed to go 2-0, scoring 84 and 78 points despite being held to fewer than 70 field goal attempts in each of its first two contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Mystics made good on just 31 and 29 of those attempts. Here, I expect them to be able to find a few more scoring opportunities against an Aces squad that has yielded its first two opponents 73 and 76 FG attempts. The Aces have won and covered as a favorite in consecutive games but now fall in a tough situation as they're a long-term 18-36 ATS when coming off consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here, and worse still, 1-10 ATS when following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that latter situation. The Aces did take all three meetings against the Mystics last season but two of those wins came by three points or less. Finally, I'll point out that while Elena Delle Donne sat out Sunday's big win in Minnesota, she is expected back on the floor for Washington on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). |
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05-09-22 | Rangers -104 v. Penguins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7 pm et on Monday. I don't feel that we've seen the Rangers best performance yet in this series. Sure, there was a 5-2 victory in Game 2 but even in that contest, it didn't seem like the Blueshirts were in complete control. Off a 7-4 drubbing on Saturday - a game that featured a furious second period rally from New York after falling behind 4-1 after the first - I look for the Rangers to bounce back in a big way on Monday. A stunningly poor performance from likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin highlighted Game 3 on Saturday. He was pulled early in that contest, a rare sight for sure. I certainly expect the world class goaltender to rebound with a much better performance here. Note that the Rangers check in 15-6 after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Better still, they're 7-1 after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here, averaging 4.0 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. When seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season they've allowed an average of only 1.7 goals per game while averaging 3.8 themselves, going 9-1 along the way. The last 37 times we've seen the Penguins play on home ice when leading a playoff series they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 goals. Take New York (10*). |
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05-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Guardians UNDER 6.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Cleveland at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. The postponement of last night's game works in our favor as far as this play is concerned. Kevin Gausman had made his last two starts on just four days' rest and was slated to do so again last night. With that game being postponed, he'll now be able to pitch on a full five days' rest on Saturday. Note that the last time he pitched on at least five days' rest he turned in his best outing of the young season, allowing just one earned run over eight innings in Boston. In two previous road starts this season he has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. It's a similar story for Guardians ace Shane Bieber. He hasn't started a game since April 30th so I'm confident we'll see his best stuff here. In his lone previous home start he gave up only one earned run over six innings against the White Sox. He's made just one previous home start against the Blue Jays, allowing two earned runs over six innings back in 2019. The night off on Friday certainly helps an overworked Blue Jays bullpen that hadn't enjoyed a day off since April 18th. Note that the Jays relief corps has posted a collective 1.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians bullpen owns a 2.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at home. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Cardinals v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. We saw the Cardinals continue their offensive surge in last night's series opener here in San Francisco. The Giants didn't hold up their end of the bargain, however, plating just one run. They've run into some very tough pitching over the last few games but considering they did scratch out 10 hits (and leave 10 men on base) in last night's game, I do think a breakout performance is imminent. Note that the Cards have allowed double-digit hit totals in two of their last three games and I expect a similar outcome tonight. On the flip side, the Giants pitching staff has struggled lately and that's putting it mildly. They've allowed 22, 11, 12, 5, 11 and 12 hits over their last six games and now turn to a struggling Alex Cobb on Friday. Cobb turned in about as bad an outing as a pitcher can have at the big league level last time out, allowing five runs before exiting with only two outs in the first inning. While Cards starter Jordan Hicks has a promising future, he continues to only make brief appearances in a starting role. That leaves a Cards bullpen that has been anything but invincible, recording a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over their last seven games. Expect plenty of offense in this game tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Real Sociedad v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a rather cagey affair between these two La Liga sides on Friday in Valencia. Real Sociedad comes in having failed to record a victory in its last three matches. It still sits sixth in the La Liga table, with a four-point cushion over seventh-place Villarreal and a seven-point advantage on Athletic, which sits in eighth. There's no question Sociedad would like to claim all three points in this match but I don't believe it will come easy. Levante sits last in the La Liga table. It will undoubtedly take on a defensive form here noting that it has gone four matches without recording a clean sheet and eight contests without doing so in this particular series. The last two matches between these two squads have gone 1-0 to Sociedad. With Levante giving up the first goal in five of the last six meetings, I would anticipate it throwing everything it has at Sociedad early in this one in an effort to stem the tide. Note that as bad as Levante has been this season, it actually has a goal differential of just -5 at home, where it has conceded just over 1.6 goals per contest. Noting that Sociedad has seen less than 2.5 goals in six of its last seven matches, I believe both sides will be comfortable in a low-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-22 | Arminia Bielefeld v. VfL Bochum OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vfl Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Bielefeld could desperately use the three points from this 'away' match on Friday as it currently sits six points back of 15th-place Hertha Berlin - a spot that would mean avoiding relegation. It has to feel it at least has a puncher's chance in this one, noting that Bochum is a middling Bundesliga side that has failed to deliver a victory in the last five meetings in this series. While eight of the last 10 matches between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, I believe that's only serving to provide us with some value on the 'over' in this one. Keep in mind, Bochum has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet. Bielefeld has had a miserable time keeping the ball out of its own net, allowing the first goal in nine consecutive matches while going winless over that stretch. Bielefeld has managed to find a goal in three of its last five matches - in the only two contests where it didn't over that stretch, it allowed four. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-22 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NHL First Round Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and New York at 7 pm et on Thursday. I can't help but feel we're seeing an overreaction to a couple of things from Game 1 of this series, leading to plenty of '6's' on the board for Game 2. First of all, the series-opener was a high-scoring one, with seven goals scored, albeit in more than five periods of hockey. We certainly saw how things can tighten up, however, noting that there was just one goal scored in the first period and none in the third (or in the first or second overtime periods of course). Second, the Penguins were already down a goalie with Tristan Jarry on the shelf but Casey DeSmith was forced to leave Game 1 due to injury as well and his status is still up in the air for Game 2. Keep in mind, Louis Domingue stepped in and performed admirably, just as he has whenever he's been called upon this season, posting a .960 save percentage in three games, with the 'under' cashing in both of his previous starts. Rangers goaltender and likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin did not have a good Game 1. I expect him to bounce back here, however. He owns a .941 save percentage at home this season with the 'under' cashing in 19 of his 30 starts at Madison Square Garden. The 'under' checks in 12-4 with the Rangers playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. The Penguins average an impressive 3.3 goals per game this season but that scoring average drops to 2.7 goals per contest over the last three seasons when they play on the road after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-22 | Venezia v. Salernitana OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Salernitana and Venezia at 12 noon et on Thursday. In principle, I'm not convinced we should see totals set south of 3.0 goals in matches involving Venezia. It continues to bring up the rear in the Seria A table and has now conceded at least a goal in an incredible 23 consecutive matches. It has also gone winless in its last 10 Serie A tilts, carrying a streak of nine straight outright defeats. You have to think that this could potentially be the spot to break that skid, however, noting that Salernitana sits just four points ahead in the Serie A table, with an even worse goal margin of -42. It does check in undefeated across its last four contests but has also seen both teams find the back of the net in four of its last five overall. It's not as if this hasn't been a competitive series as each of the last three matches have been decided by a single goal with both teams scoring in all three of those contests. When they last met in October 2021, Venezia fell by a 2-1 score, thanks in large part to playing shorthanded following a red card in the 67th minute. With both sides extremely vulnerable at the back-end and with little reason to hold anything back up front, I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks here. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-22 | Blues v. Wild -127 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over St. Louis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild got caught in the trap of thinking that home ice advantage alone would carry them in the opener of this series - after all, they did go an incredible 31-10 here in the 'State of Hockey' during the regular season. The Blues had other ideas, cruising to a 4-0 victory - their sixth consecutive win against the Wild. I look for Minnesota to answer back in Game 2 on Wednesday. Note that the Blues are just 6-14 when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that situation. The Wild meanwhile are a perfect 8-0 when coming off a home loss by 2+ goals this season, averaging 4.6 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 2.2 goals on average in that spot. While the Wild certainly went through a rough stretch from mid-February to mid-March, they did manage to turn it around down the stretch and despite the disappointment of that lopsided Game 1 defeat, not to mention the fact that St. Louis has owned this series this season, I don't expect them to roll over on home ice. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-22 | Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Real Madrid and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I believe we're in for a real treat in the second leg of this epic Champions League semi-final showdown between Real Madrid and Manchester City on Wednesday. Keep in mind, the first leg met expectations and then some as Man City prevailed by a 4-3 score on home soil. Here, I expect City and its oft-vulnerable back-end to have an extremely difficult time containing a Real Madrid offense that has absolutely rounded into form in recent months. Both of these teams are no strangers to high-scoring affairs. They both enter this match having seen each of their last five contests total at least three goals. I like the fact that Real Madrid needs to erase a one-goal deficit here at home while Man City will also be striving for goals having allowed a whopping three 'away' goals in the first leg. While Man City has won four consecutive meetings between these European powerhouses, you would have to go back six matches to find the last time it recorded a clean sheet against Real Madrid. For its part, Real Madrid hasn't held Man City off the scoresheet in any of the last four meetings between the two and in current form isn't the impenetrable defensive squad it once was. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Florida at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. You would have to go back nine meetings in this series to find the last time a game finished with fewer than seven total goals. I don't expect that to change in the opener of this first round series on Tuesday. The Capitals struggled offensively down the stretch but they were also without Alex Ovechkin for their last three contests. He is expected back in the lineup for Tuesday's contest. A bigger concern than the Caps recent offensive woes is their situation defensively and in goal. They allowed at least four goals in six of their last nine games down the stretch. Both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek struggled between the pipes. Now they have to face a Panthers squad that averaged 4.7 goals per game on home ice during the regular season. Florida will give its share of goals up as well though. The Panthers have allowed 2.9 goals per game at home this season and will have to contend with a Caps offense that averages an impressive 3.5 goals per contest on the road. The most recent meeting between these two teams went Florida's way by a 5-4 score. That's notable as the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Capitals seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 5+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). |
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05-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Arizona at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The D'Backs took the opener of this series last night to improve to an even 6-6 on the road this season. The Marlins didn't get a strong start from Pablo Lopez and ultimately dug too big of a hole to rally, falling just short in a 5-4 contest. After winning seven straight games, Miami has now dropped consecutive games. I look for it to bounce back here. Humberto Castellanos is expected to get the start for the D'Backs. He has turned in one good start and one bad one on the road this season but the D'Backs have lost both of those games by lopsided margins of 5-0 and 8-3. With Castellanos unlikely to work deep into this game (he's yet to last six innings in any of his 10 previous big league starts) we'll likely see plenty of a D'Backs bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.62 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 40 innings of work on the road this season. Left-hander Trevor Rogers projects to get the start for the Marlins in this one. He got off to a rough start through two outings this season but has since turned it around, allowing only one earned run on six hits over 11 innings in his last two outings. He should feel confident facing the D'Backs after tossing six impressive innings against them in a 5-1 win in Arizona last season. Miami's relief corps entered last night's game with a 3.12 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings pitched at home this season with three saves converted and none blown. Take Miami (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning in their playoff opener on Monday. The Leafs past playoff failures have been well-documented. While they certainly draw a tough opening round opponent in the Lightning, I do feel this is their best team in a number of years - one capable of making a deep playoff run. That's a story for another day, however. Here, I expect the Leafs to get this series off on the right foot, noting that the Lightning have shown some cracks in their armor this season, particularly down the stretch. Tampa Bay checks in having allowed 3.9 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals, when playing on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season (17-game sample size), as is the case here. The Leafs rested most of their stars but still notched a regular season-ending 5-2 win over the Bruins. That's notable as they've averaged 4.5 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game this season (28-game sample size), which is the situation here. Also of note, Leafs goaltender Jack Campbell, who had an extended rough stretch during the regular season, bounced back to post a .941 save percentage over his last five starts with the Leafs going 4-1 in those games. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-02-22 | Twins -140 v. Orioles | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Twins are locked-in at the plate right now, having delivered 14, 9, 5, 9, 11, 3, 14 and 13 hits over their last eight games and even in the two outliers over that stretch they still managed to go 1-1 (they're 9-1 over their last 10 games overall). The Orioles delivered consecutive wins over a struggling Red Sox squad over the weekend but I think the win streak ends here. While I give the Twins only a slight edge in terms of starting pitching, I do think they have a more decisive advantage as far as the bullpens go with Minnesota's relief corps having posted a collective 2.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games while Baltimore's 'pen has recorded a 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Despite their nine-run explosion yesterday, the O's are still averaging only 3.2 runs per game at home this season while Minnesota has put up 4.0 runs per contest on the road. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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04-29-22 | Padres v. Pirates OVER 7 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Friday. The Padres are a terrific 'over' play right now for a few reasons. First and foremost, they're locked in at the plate, knocking out 8, 12, 8 and 11 hits over their last four games. But they're also giving up their share, with the opposition collecting 8, 8, 10 and 8 hits over that stretch. Finally, they're playing awful defensive. They've managed to rack up a whopping nine errors over their last four games. Here, they'll face a reeling Pirates squad that is also playing poor defense at the moment, with seven errors over their last five contests. The Buccos aren't hitting as well as the Padres right now, but they are just two games removed from a 13-hit, 8-run barrage against the Brewers. On the flip side, Pittsburgh has yielded its opponents 23, 10, 14, 4 and 9 hits over its last five games. Take the over (10*). |
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04-28-22 | Capitals -130 v. Islanders | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Isles got the better of the Caps two nights ago in Washington, skating to a 4-1 win. While Washington's first round playoff matchup is set (it will face Florida), I do think the Caps have some motivation to snap their brief two-game skid before wrapping up the regular season against the Rangers tomorrow night. Here, we'll note that Washington is 28-11 after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals in that situation. The Isles are just 9-16 after a win by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, averaging just 2.5 goals and outscored by 0.4 goals on average in that spot. New York is just 13-23 when coming off a victory of any kind this season while the Caps are 25-14 on the road, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-22 | Inter Milan v. Bologna +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Soccer Game of the Week. My selection is on Bologna +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 2:15 pm et on Wednesday. Inter Milan enters Wednesday's match in Bologna just two points back of AC Milan, which sits tops in the Serie A table. There's undoubtedly some pressure on Inter to collect all three points in this match and leapfrog Milan. It won't be easy, however. Bologna has gone undefeated across its last four matches and should be well aware of the path to success in this particular contest, having seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Bologna also knows that it can find success against Inter. The most recent meeting came last September, with Inter winning by a lopsided 6-1 score. Prior to that, however, four of the last five matches between these two squads were decided by a single goal. Note that despite being decided underdogs, Bologna has failed to find the back of the net just once in the last five meetings. I'm anticipating a competitive affair on Wednesday. Take Bologna +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals suffered an excruciating loss in the opener of this series last night with Nolan Arenado's ill-timed ninth inning throwing error (with two outs) ultimately leading to a 5-2 loss. I do expect them to bounce back on Tuesday as they halt their brief two-game losing streak. The Mets have won two games in a row and are off to a 3-1 start to their current road trip. Keep in mind, they're just 20-31 when coming off consecutive wins going back to last season, outscored by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Chris Bassitt gets the start for New York. He was terrific in his first two starts this season but those came against the struggling Nationals and D'Backs. In his most recent outing he was tagged for five earned runs over six innings against the Giants. Note that the Mets bullpen has struggled on the road this season, recording a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with three converted saves to go along with three blown. Jordan Hicks gets another turn in the rotation for the Cardinals. He gave up one earned runs in a short three-inning outing against the Marlins last week. He's unlikely to work deep into this game either but that's fine as the Cards 'pen has posted a 3.42 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over their last seven games. While St. Louis produced only two runs last night that wasn't unexpected as it was up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer. Note that the Cards are still averaging an impressive 5.4 runs per contest at home this season. Take St. Louis (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Now that we've got the starting goaltender matchup we wanted, we'll step in with a play on the 'under' in Tampa on Tuesday. The Lightning are coming off six straight 'over' results. They've scored a whopping 22 goals over their last three games alone - their highest such scoring run of the season. I expect them to 'manage' this game, however, noting that they recently suffered a couple of late season injury scares with Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev (Cirelli is expected back in the lineup on Tuesday while Sergachev remains questionable) and will close out the season with games on consecutive nights beginning on Thursday in Columbus. I mentioned the goaltending matchup in this one - it's certainly notable when you consider how well Elvis Merzlikins has been playing for the Blue Jackets. He has posted a .937 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'under' cashing in three of those four games. Also note that the 'under' is 4-1 in his five career starts against the Lightning. Columbus scored five goals in its most recent game - a 5-2 victory over Edmonton on Friday. Prior to that the Jackets had scored just eight goals over their last four games combined. The 'under' checks in 10-2 with the Jackets playing on the road off a win by 3+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 4.5 goals. While the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled nine goals, that came in Columbus. The two teams have met four times in Tampa going back to the start of last season with those contests reaching just 4, 5, 4 and 7 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-22 | Juventus v. Sassuolo Calcio UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Soccer Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sassuolo and Juventus at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I can't help but feel that both sides would be satisfied with a low-scoring draw in this Monday Serie A matchup. Juventus sits fairly comfortable inside the top four in the Serie A table, five points ahead of fifth-place Roma with this being its match-in-hand. Sassuolo is in no man's land in some sense, sitting 10th in the table, a whopping 21 points north of relegation but 10 points outside the coveted top six spots. We're dealing with a relatively high posted total here due largely to the fact that each of the last 10 meetings in this series has gone 'over' 2.5 goals. With that being said, Juventus has seen four of its last five matches overall stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Sassuolo will likely take on a rather defensive shape here as it looks to break a streak of seven consecutive matches allowing at least one goal. However, I also expect Juventus to take a rather cautious approach as it has yielded at least a goal in six consecutive matches against Sassuolo and will be looking to keep its three match undefeated streak intact. While a 'push' is always a fairly probable outcome when dealing with 'on the nose' totals such as this one (the standard total is set at 3.0 at the time of writing), I believe there's a good chance we see a 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 outcome here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Minnesota rolled to a 6-3 win over the expansion Kraken on Friday night. Seattle seemingly woke a sleeping giant in that contest, jumping out to an early 2-0 lead before the Wild exploded for six goals. That was Minnesota's second straight game scoring six goals. Note, however, that both of those contests came at home. The Wild have scored three goals or less in four of their last five road games. They've yet to score more than two goals in a game against the Predators this season, losing all three previous matchups. Minnesota is currently missing a number of key contributors due to injury, including Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno and Jordan Greenway. The Preds will be looking to bounce back from a 6-2 drubbing in Tampa last night. The good news is, Nashville has been much better defensively here at home, allowing just 2.6 goals per game this season. Note that the Wild average just 2.8 goals per game with an average total of 5.0 goals when playing on the road after scoring 4+ goals in consecutive games this season, as is the case here. The 'under' has cashed at a 10-3 clip in that situation. Similarly, the 'under' is 17-7 with the Wild playing on the road after consecutive games totalling 7+ goals, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 5.5 goals in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the 'under' has cashed in 21 of the last 35 meetings here in Music City, with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-22 | Marlins v. Braves -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta over Miami at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. It's been a rough week for the Braves as they've dropped three of five games against the Dodgers and Marlins. They can salvage a series victory here, however, heading into an off day on Monday. I look for them to do just that. Note that Atlanta checks in 29-11 when coming off four or five losses over their last six games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.8 runs on average in that situation. The Marlins on the other hand are a long-term 21-53 when playing on the road after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game, which is also the situation here, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 runs in that spot. Note that Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo faced the Braves once last season, allowing four earned runs on four hits and five walks in just three innings in an 11-9 loss last August. Bryce Elder will counter for Atlanta and he should be confident given he worked into the sixth inning and allowed just three earned runs in a 16-4 victory over Washington in his lone previous home start this season. While the Braves bullpen hasn't been as good as we've come to expect out of the gates this season, it has managed to convert six of seven save opportunities. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-23-22 | Red Sox v. Rays -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox took the opener of this series in a game that could have easily gone either way. Both of these teams are off to disappointing 7-7 starts. In a game where the pitching is virtually a 'wash', I'll go with what I believe to be the better offense in a bounce-back spot on Saturday. Garrett Whitlock has been effective out of the bullpen for the Red Sox during the early stages of his career but will be making his first big league start here. Meanwhile, the Rays will turn to J.P. Feyereisen in an 'opener' role, much like he served in Chicago last week as the Rays defeated the White Sox 9-3. Despite scoring just three runs last night, Tampa Bay does check in averaging 4.6 runs per game over the last week. The Red Sox have had a slightly tougher time generating runs, averaging 3.4 runs per contest over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the Rays are an impressive 30-11 in their last 41 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Senators v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met in March and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. You would have to go back four games to find the last time the Senators posted an 'under' result. I expect that to change here. Note that Ottawa is averaging a woeful 1.3 goals per game with an average total of 5.3 goals when coming off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals this season, as is the case following Tuesday's 4-3 win in Vancouver. The 'under' is 20-7 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 5.2 goals. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have posted a 3-11 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal loss over the last three seasons, which is the situation here, resulting in an average total of 4.4 goals in that spot. We're likely to see a matchup between Anton Forsberg and Elvis Merzlikins in goal in this one and both have been playing well with Forsberg posting a .919 save percentage over his last four games and Merzlikins having recorded a .920 save percentage over the same stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I don't think there's much at all separating these two clubs right now yet we're being offered to back the Guardians with an insurance run at a near pk'em price on Friday. We'll gladly take advantage. Cleveland comes in off an impressive three-game series sweep of the White Sox. The Guardians have hit well so far this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while batting a collective .278. That's certainly more than can be said of the Yankees, who check in hitting a miserable .220 and averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. There's little to choose between tonight's two starting pitchers. Eli Morgan will make his first start of the season for the Guardians. He should bring some confidence having pitched here at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an 11-1 victory. Jameson Taillon's lone outing against Cleveland last season didn't go so well as he was lit up for four earned runs in just four innings in a 7-3 loss. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season. While the Yanks 'pen has posted a terrific 2.97 ERA over its last seven games, we have started to see some cracks as evidenced by its 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. By contrast, the Guardians relief corps has posted a sparkling 0.93 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-22-22 | Mainz v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Mainz at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Both of these squads are dealing with a number of key injuries and absences on the back line with multiple defenders slated to miss another match on Friday. While Mainz is coming off a less-than-thrilling 0-0 draw, I believe we're set up for a relatively high-scoring affair on Friday. Note that Wolfsburg has seen 'over' 2.5 goals in four of its last five contests, conceding the first goal in four of those five matches as well. While Mainz has had little success on 'away' soil this Bundesliga campaign (it checks in 17th in the table when only factoring in 'away' matches) it should feel confident here as it has notched three goals in each of its last two dates with Wolfsburg, most recently securing a 3-0 victory last December. Wolfsburg is fresh off a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund. It has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks but you have to figure we'll see it come out aggressively here after such a poor showing last time out. Noting that Mainz has gone winless in its last four matches, Wolfsburg will be keen to put it on its back foot early in this one. Note that Mainz has allowed just shy of two goals per contest away from home in Bundesliga action this season. On the flip side, while it is coming off a shotless performance in that nil-nil draw against Stuttgart, it hasn't been held off the scoresheet entirely in an 'away' Bundesliga match since December. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-22 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Division F5 Innings Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. This has been a fairly low-scoring series through the first two games with Seattle inflicting most of the damage offensively (it has scored 10 of the 14 runs in the series). Here, I'm looking for another low-scoring start. By playing the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a Rangers bullpen that has been awful in the early going this season (5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54 2/3 IP). Rangers starter Taylor Hearn has been average at best through two starts, which is about all that Texas can really expect from the back-of-the-rotation starter. With that being said, I'm confident he can hold the Mariners average offense in check here, noting that he faced them twice last season, allowing only two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He'll have the benefit of facing a Rangers lineup that while explosive on paper, has yet to wake from its early season slumber (Texas has scored nine runs over its last four games combined). Gonzalez is coming off a scintillating seven-inning performance against the Astros and checks in having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts against Texas, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. Take the first five innings under (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*). |
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04-20-22 | Twins v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams to open this series last night as the Royals pulled out a 4-3 victory. With the 'under' having gone 3-1 in the Twins last four games and a perfect 4-0 in the Royals last four contests we're being afforded a reasonably low total to work with here - too low in my opinion. There's a reason the Padres were willing to cut Chris Paddack loose, shipping him to Minnesota at the start of the season. He struggled in his Twins debut, allowing three earned runs on six hits over just four innings against the Dodgers last week. I'm not convinced he'll fare any better here. Behind Paddack is a struggling Minnesota bullpen that has posted a collective 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 46 innings of work this season. It's a similar story for the Royals 'pen, as it has recorded a 4.69 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 38 1/3 innings pitched. That Kansas City bullpen could get put to work early in this one as starter Daniel Lynch has worked more than five innings just twice in his last eight starts going back to last season. Lynch labored through his first start this season, allowing six earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs, in five innings against the Cardinals. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for both offenses in the early going this season but I expect both to feast on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-19-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring games. In the case of the Marlins, they're fresh off three consecutive 'over' results. I expect a different story to unfold here, however. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright didn't pitch well last time out. We know he can still pitch though, noting that he tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates in his first outing this season. He posted a 3.05 ERA (his lowest season-long ERA since 2015) and a 1.06 WHIP last year. Jesus Luzardo had a scintillating Marlins debut last week, striking out 12 over five innings of one-run ball against the Angels. While he isn't likely to duplicate that effort here, I still expect him to pitch well against a Cardinals team that has hit a collective .235 on the road so far this season (limited sample size, I know). Going back to the end of last season, Luzardo has allowed just four earned runs while striking out 28 and walking just three in his last 14 1/3 innings of work. While he's certainly gone through some rough times on the mound in recent years, remember he finished top-eight in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the A's just two years ago. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season with the Cards 'pen posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and the Marlins relief corps recording a collective 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both 'pens have worked 35 or less innings so far this season and both come off an off day on Monday so it should be all hands on deck here. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Cardinals coming off a one-run loss going back to last season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 6.3 runs. The 'under' is also 23-11 with the Marlins playing at home after winning two of their last three games over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 7.2 runs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Hurricanes v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Monday. I'm not sure whether the Coyotes are actually 'tanking' or if the talent level simply isn't there to compete on a nightly basis (especially given their injury situation). Regardless, opponents are scoring against them at will and they're likely going to be in tough again on Monday as they host a Hurricanes squad looking to bounce back from consecutive losses. Note that Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than their home games this season, averaging 6.3 total goals per contest with the 'over' cashing at a 20-14-3 clip. In Canes road games with the total set at 6.0 or higher, we've seen an average total of 6.9 goals scored. Also note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Coyotes playing at home after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 7.7 goals scored. Both teams are in tough between the pipes right now. Frederik Andersen had to leave the Canes last game due to a lower body injury. Antti Raanta has performed well at times this season but has seemingly hit the wall lately, posting an .873 save percentage over his last four games. Meanwhile, Coyotes goaltender Karel Vejmelka has had to shoulder far too much of the load in his rookie season, making 44 starts. Over his last four games he has recorded a dismal .817 save percentage with the 'over' cashing at a 3-0-1 clip. Take the over (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Pirates posted an 'under' result. I look for that to change on Monday, however, as the Buccos head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. I would consider both of tonight's starters underrated in some sense. Zach Thompson was effective over four innings in his first start with the Pirates (he came over from Miami in the offseason). Thompson quietly posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 75 innings pitched with the Marlins last season. For his career he has posted a 34.5% hard-hit ball percentage, nearly 4.5% below the MLB average over that period. Behind Thompson is a Pirates bullpen that has been terrific in the early going this season, posting a collective 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings. Brewers starter Eric Lauer didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but still hung in there, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Orioles. I expect him to fare better in his first home start of the season, noting that he faced the Pirates once here last season, tossing five shutout innings. He owns a career 2.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in seven career starts against Pittsburgh. Like the Pirates, the Brewers have been solid out of the bullpen, recording a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. As a team, the Brewers are still hitting just .212 and averaging 3.1 runs per game on the season. The Pirates, meanwhile, check in hitting .266 as a team while averaging 4.4 runs per game but figure to suffer some regression in this, just their second 'away' series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-18-22 | Roma v. Napoli OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Napoli and Roma at 1 pm et on Monday. Napoli enters this match undefeated in the last four matches in this series having not allowed a single goal in the last three. So it's understandable that we're dealing with a reasonably low total in Monday's contest. However, both teams have seen plenty of goals in their recent matches. Napoli has seen six of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. The same can be said for Roma in four of its last five matches. Given Napoli has seen both teams score in nine of its last 10 matches, I'm confident Roma can find at least a goal here. Note also that Roma has managed to find the back of the net first in four of its last five contests overall. As much as neither side will want to give an inch as they both sit in the coveted top-six in Serie A play, I'm anticipating some fireworks on Monday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*). |
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04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. West Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers opened this series with a big win on Thursday but have proceeded to drop the last two games with their pitching failing them. Here, I look for Texas to bounce back, noting that the Angels have gone 12-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscored by 1.3 runs on average along the way. Meanwhile, Texas has gone 15-8 when playing at home off a loss by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 0.2 runs on average. There's little to separate the two starters today with Jose Suarez taking the ball for the Angels against Rangers veteran Martin Perez. The same goes for the two bullpens as both have struggled in the early going this season. It's been a number of years since the Angels last reeled off three straight wins over the Rangers by 2+ runs. Look for Texas to bounce back here. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
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04-16-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
First Five Innings Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We've seen these two teams take turns beating up on each other in the first two games of this series with the Brewers taking the opener 5-1 before the Cardinals answered back with a 10-1 victory last night. Here, I look for both teams to show up offensively, particularly early in the game. We'll play the first five innings only as both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season and we'll look to avoid them here. The starters on the other hand were not good in their respective season debuts. Steven Matz made his first start as a Cardinal and proceeded to get smashed for nine hits and seven earned runs in just three innings against the Pirates. Adrian Houser couldn't make it through the fourth inning against the Orioles. Both starters will settle down a little bit here, but I'm not convinced they have any sort of advantage against the opposing hitters here. Expect early fireworks. Take the first five innings over (10*). |
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04-15-22 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The White Sox could muster only one run in yesterday's wind-swept 5-1 loss against Seattle and that came only thanks to those blustery winds that led to a couple of Mariners' fielding gaffes. Here, I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair as the Rays roll into the Windy City to face the White Sox on Friday. Both of tonight's starters were effective in their season debuts with Drew Rasmussen working four innings in a 5-3 Rays win over Baltimore and Dylan Cease tossing five frames in a 5-2 White Sox victory over Detroit. I expect more of the same here, perhaps with the two bullpens - which have both been solid in the early going - doing some heavy lifting. The Tampa Bay 'pen has posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through a whopping 40 2/3 innings so far this season while the White Sox relief corps has recorded a 3.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings. On another rather unfriendly hitting night at Guaranteed Rate Field, I expect runs to come at a premium. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-22 | AS Monaco v. Rennes OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Stade Rennes and AS Monaco at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any Ligue 1 team has played as entertaining of a brand of football as Stade Rennes lately, perhaps not even mighty PSG. It enters Friday's showdown with Monaco having gone undefeated over its last five matches but also not recording a single clean sheet over its last six contests. We've seen goals and scoring opportunities aplenty over that stretch and I'm anticipating more of the same on Friday. Monaco comes in playing some of its best football, having reeled off three straight wins, scoring at least two goals in each contest. It sits just a point back of Nice for one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two squads has totalled 'over' 2.5 goals. We've seen both teams score in each of the last 10 meetings in the series. You would have to go all the way back to March 6th, when it faced bottom-half Ligue 1 squad Angers, to find the last time Stade Rennes didn't concede a goal - seven matches back. Just three matches back Monaco held PSG off the scoresheet in a 3-0 victory, however, it has yielded goals against both Metz and Troyes over its last two contests. I simply like the form that both sides bring to the pitch on Friday and fully expect a 2-1 or better result. Take the over (10*). |
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04-15-22 | Inter Milan v. Spezia Calcio +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Serie A Game of the Month. My selection is on Spezia +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 1 pm et on Friday. Inter Milan rolls into Friday's 'away' match against Spezia off consecutive clean sheet victories. In fact, Inter is undefeated in its last eight matches overall. With that being said, I see this as a tricky contest, noting that both teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring affairs lately. Inter has seen each of its last five contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Spezia in five of its last six matches. With this match being played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia we'll note that the home side has recorded a goal differential of just -1 goal in the role of host this season. Contrast that with its -21 goal differential in enemy territory. Inter Milan, meanwhile, is tops in the Serie A table when factoring in only 'home' affairs but drops to fifth when only considering 'away' matches. This has been a relatively tight series lately with Inter winning two of the last three matches between the two but with just a +3 goal differential over that stretch. Take Spezia +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-14-22 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Wings aren't scoring with any consistency right now, having found the back of the net 2, 1, 2, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4 and 1 goal over their last 10 games. In a game the Hurricanes will be looking to 'manage' before heading out on the road for two games in three nights beginning Saturday in Colorado, I look for goals to come at a premium. The Canes have actually seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games after the 'under' had gone 3-1-1 over their previous five contests. They've been incredibly stingy here at home this season, allowing just 2.1 goals per game. Better still, they've given up just 1.4 goals per contest with an average total of only 4.9 goals when playing at home off two or more consecutive wins this season (14-game sample size), as is the case here. Detroit averages just 2.4 goals per game away from home this season with that number dropping to 2.1 when coming off a loss, which is the situation here. Additionally, the 'under' is 20-11 with Carolina playing at home after scoring 3+ goals in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 5.3 goals. We're able to play this one at 6.5 thanks to the previous two meetings between these two teams this season reaching 8 and 7 goals. The 'under' has still cashed in 15 of the last 25 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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04-14-22 | Mariners -105 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners have dropped the first two games in this series. In fact, they've lost four games in a row since opening the season with consecutive victories. I like the way they're set up to get back in the win column on Thursday, however, as they wrap up their three-game series in Chicago. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the M's. He pitched well in his season debut, allowing just one earned run over five innings, essentially picking up right where he left off at the end of last season. Gilbert had a brief outing here in Chicago last season, tossing two scoreless innings in a game the Mariners won 3-2. Behind Gilbert is a Seattle bullpen that has posted a collective 3.60 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season. Jimmy Lambert will get his first start of the season for the White Sox. He made three starts down the stretch last year, pitching reasonably well (at first glance at least), allowing five earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. A closer look shows that he recorded a 43.9% hard-hit ball percentage and a 35.7% fly ball percentage - both considerably higher than MLB averages. After getting very limited work in Spring Training, I expect him to struggle against the Mariners lineup today. Here, we'll note that the Mariners are 11-5 after losing four of their last five games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.3 runs on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a long-term 46-60 when playing at home off consecutive wins by two runs or less, as is the case here, allowing 5.1 runs per game and outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Seattle (10*). |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 237 | Top | 103-132 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This is the highest posted total of the play-in round and it's that high for a reason. The Hornets enter this showdown arguably playing their best offensive basketball of the season, having scored 128, 133 and 124 points over their last three games. They've made good on 40+ field goals in an incredible 15 straight games. Over their last four contests they've knocked down 45, 48, 52 and 48 field goals. While I'm not projecting a break-neck pace to this game, I'm confident both sides can make good on their opportunities. Note that the Hornets have yielded their opponents 40+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games. Two of their last three foes managed to get off 94 or more field goal attempts. The Hawks are certainly capable of taking advantage, having knocked down 43, 43, 42 and 45 field goals over their last four games. In fact, they've made good on 42+ field goals in eight of their last nine contests. However, like the Hornets the Hawks have also been generous defensively, giving up 40+ made field goals in five straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back on March 16th and that's contributing to a lower posted total here than we saw on that night. The two teams combined to hit below their average in three-point field goals and free throws in that contest. I believe this game is being projected by oddsmakers to have a pace in the high-80's as far as FG attempts go. Even at that pace I believe the two teams can get 'over' the total but if it ticks up at all, I think we see this game sail well north of the number. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Rockies have seen just one of their first four games go 'over' the total this season. With that being said, after their first two contests reached just eight and five total runs, their last two have gotten to 13 and 10. Yesterday's series-opener here in Texas probably should have gone 'over' the total in extras were it not for a controversial call to end the game. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Rockies brought tonight's starting pitcher, Chad Kuhl, over from Pittsburgh in the offseason. He wasn't great with the Pirates and certainly didn't look good in two Spring Training starts with the Rockies, allowing 12 hits and eight earned runs while recording a 4:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in just 5 1/3 innings. We know how explosive the Rangers offense can be as we've already seen them score 8+ runs in two of four games this season. The Rangers will hand the ball to veteran Martin Perez. He was relegated to bullpen duty after struggling as a starter with the Red Sox last season. He'll have his hands full in his first start back with the Rangers (where he started his career) as the Rockies check in hitting .307 as a team and averaging 7.5 runs per game in two previous games against left-handed starting pitching this season. With Perez an unlikely candidate to work deep into this game, that opens the door for a struggling Rangers bullpen that has posted a collective 4.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, having allowed four home runs in just 19 innings so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a big ticket fading the Flyers in their most recent game as they dropped a 5-3 decision at home against the Ducks on Saturday (in a game they led 2-0). Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Philadelphia (on the puck-line) as it travels to Washington to face the division rival Capitals. The Flyers haven't quit on the season. They've actually won their last two road games, including an impressive victory over the Rangers in New York. There are certain games left on their schedule that I don't think they'll get up for, and this is one of them. Washington enters this game off three straight wins. The Caps are just 1-5 when playing at home off consecutive wins by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. They've also gone 3-8 when at home after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone 13-8 when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.1 goals on average in that situation. It's certainly worth noting that the Caps are actually a losing team on home ice this season, having gone 18-20 with an even 3.1-3.1 scoring average. As I mentioned, I expect the Flyers to get up for this one, noting that this has been a tight series all season with Philadelphia securing a pair of one-goal victories and Washington winning the other contest by a 5-3 score (on the road). Factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, the Flyers are 4-1 in the last five meetings in the series. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (10*). |
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04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' (by 25+ points) in the Spurs 100-94 loss to the Warriors last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they wrap up the regular season in Dallas on Sunday. Note that we also won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game, despite the fact that they put up 128 points against the Blazers. Here, we'll note that the Spurs have been playing much better defense lately, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While they haven't always been able to control their opponents' tempo, they did limit the Warriors to just 81 field goal attempts last night. The Mavs don't figure to push the pace all that much here. While they did put up a ridiculous number of points last time out, they actually attempted just 79 field goals. They've hoisted up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games, getting off 90 or fewer attempts in an incredible 29 straight games. Of course that doesn't always assure us of a low-scoring result as Dallas is capable of shooting the lights out. However, here on the final night of the regular season, I'm not sure we'll see it. Defensively, the Mavs are locked-in right now, holding their last two opponents to 35 or fewer made field goals on 83 or less FG attempts. The Spurs, missing both Jakob Poeltl and DeJounte Murray - two of their best scoring options - have attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six straight games - a stark contrast to what we were seeing earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-22 | Ducks -102 v. Flyers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Anaheim over Philadelphia at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. The Flyers were in a favorable spot two nights ago in Columbus, seeking quick revenge in the back half of a home-and-home series against the Blue Jackets. It's a different story here, even if Philadelphia is once again in a 'revenge' spot. These two teams haven't squared off since back in the first week of January - not exactly a game that is fresh in either team's mind at the end of a long, trying season for both. The Ducks check into this game off an unsuccessful two-game homestand that saw them drop games to the Oilers and Flames. A step down in competition should help their cause here. Note that Anaheim has allowed just 2.0 goals per game, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal when coming off 16 or more losses in their last 20 games over the last two seasons (six-game sample size), as is the case here. The Flyers check in a woeful 4-18 when coming off a game against a divisional opponent this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average in that spot. Worse still, they're winless at 0-6 when coming off a victory over a division foe, which is also the case here, outscored by an ugly 2.5-goal margin on average in that situation. Additionally, Philadelphia is 1-10 after giving up one goal or less in its previous game this season, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 goals in that spot. That strong defensive effort on Thursday was a recent anomaly for the Flyers given prior to that they had allowed 6, 5, 4, 6, 3 and 4 goals over their last six contests. For the Ducks, this might be the lone winnable game on their current road trip, which will continue with stops in Carolina, Florida and Tampa. Take Anaheim (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring result in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Friday. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Astros coming off a game in which they allowed one run or less going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 10.2 runs. The 'over' is also 17-7 in Houston's last 24 games as a road underdog, leading to an average total of 10.6 runs in that situation. There's nothing special about tonight's starting pitching matchup as the Astros send veteran Jake Odorizzi to the hill against Reid Detmers of the Angels. Odorizzi's strikeout rate was down while his home run rate was up last year compared to his previous two full seasons in 2018 and 2019 (he pitched only 13 2/3 innings in a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign). While Detmers has proven to be an excellent strikeout pitcher at the minor league level, he's yet to prove it in the bigs, posting an ERA north of seven in limited work (around 20 innings) last season. He did pitch well in one start against Houston last year, but I look for the Astros to fare better in their second look at the left-hander. Take the over (10*). |
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04-08-22 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 78-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse offensive basketball than the Blazers as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Missing so many key contributors following a pre-trade deadline fire sale and then a number of injuries, they're limping to the finish line. Note that Portland has scored 94 points or less in three straight games, struggling to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting only 84, 83 and a woeful 69 field goals over its last three contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three straight and seven of the Blazers last nine games overall. On a positive note, they have held 10 of their last 13 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They had allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games prior to last night's 127-94 loss in New Orleans (the Pelicans knocked down 44-of-93 FG attempts in that game). The Mavs have of course been lights out offensively of late. The 'over' has cashed in each of their last six games even though the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. They've attempted 80 or fewer field goals in each of their last three contests. Dallas has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. On the flip side, the Mavs held the Pistons to just 35-of-82 shooting in their most recent contest and I believe that offers some foreshadowing as to what we're likely going to see against the down-trodden Blazers on Friday. This is a game the Mavs will undoubtedly be looking to 'manage' as nearly a 20-point favorite playing their sixth game in the last 11 nights (in five different cities). Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this total sets up on Thursday night at Chase Field. The Padres lineup, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., is still absolutely loaded with run-scoring potential. Tonight they'll get the opportunity to tee off on veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner. After a pair of shaky starts to open the Spring, MadBum settled down to toss five innings of shutout ball in his final outing. He of course was serviceable for the Snakes last season, logging 140+ innings while posting a respectable 1.18 WHIP. However, his line drive and fly ball percentages were well above the MLB average to go along with a career low 33% ground ball percentage. The Padres have favorable matchups against Bumgarner up and down their lineup in this one. Yu Darvish will counter for San Diego. His strikeout rate was down and walk rate and home run rate were both up last season. He pitched reasonably well in three Spring outings but now takes on what I consider to be a D'Backs lineup with lots of potential in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona to open the campaign. The Snakes have a number of hitters coming off impressive Spring showings and I look for some carry-over effect here. Finally, remember there are no more pitchers hitting to worry about in National League play this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Magic have essentially thrown in the towel defensively, allowing 42+ made field goals in three of their last four games with 12 of their last 18 opponents getting off 90+ field goal attempts. However, as we saw two nights ago in an underdog role against the Cavs, they're still capable of rising up and playing the role of spoiler, scoring 120 points on 47-of-93 shooting despite missing a number of key contributors in that contest. Here, they'll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that has acted as a swinging door defensively, allowing 43, 40, 40, 53 and 48 made field goals over their last five games despite only one of those contests being played at a particularly fast pace (their last four opponents have all gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts). Offensively, Charlotte continues to shine. It has knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games, scoring 106 or more points in all 12 of those contests. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. But again, defense is an issue. Each of Charlotte's last 15 opponents have scored 100+ points. Remember, the Magic shot 45-of-87 from the field and scored 116 points in their most recent matchup here in Charlotte back in January. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). |
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04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 232 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this total sets up on Wednesday as the Nets play their second game in as many nights, making the short trip to Manhattan to face the Knights. Brooklyn rolled to a 118-105 win over lowly Houston last night. That marked the Nets third consecutive 'under' result and that's a trend I'm willing to bet on continuing here. Brooklyn has now held three straight and eight of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks don't figure to challenge that trend as they've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in nine of their last 14 contests. They did bust out in their last game, scoring 118 points on 45-of-93 shooting but that was against a Magic team that has quite simply folded the tent down the stretch, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. New York has tightened the screws defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip over that stretch. While the Nets have scored 115+ points in four straight games, they're in a bit of a tougher spot here, noting this is the second of back-to-backs and considering the Knicks have yielded opponents 85 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six contests and 90 or less attempts in nine consecutive games. Finally, I'll point out that none of the previous three meetings in this series this season have topped 222 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 222.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met last week and combined to score a whopping 265 points in a wild overtime affair in Portland. The two teams combined to knock down 98 field goals including 40 from beyond the arc in that contest. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from either side here. Both teams are simply playing out the string at this point, and have been for quite some time. They're also both dealing with a number of key injuries and absences. The Blazers have been as uneven as it gets offensively of late, not unexpected given the current state of their roster. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games. On a positive note they have limited the opposition to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games and 85 or less in seven of their last nine overall. Oklahoma City had been pushing the pace a bit when Shae-Gilgeous Alexander was healthy, however, he's now out for the remainder of the season and the Thunder have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. There's reason to think they'll be interested in slowing things down here after successfully doing so in a stunning 117-96 win over the Suns as a 14-point underdog last time out - a game in which they allowed just 37-of-89 shooting. Four of the Thunder's last six opponents have knocked down 41 or fewer field goals. Prior to that high-scoring one-off between these two teams last week, the previous two meetings this season totalled just 179 and 189 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-05-22 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This series has been a high-scoring one in recent years with 11 of the last 15 meetings going 'over' the total. With the Devils having seen eight of their last 10 contests sail 'over' the total and the Rangers struggling to keep the puck out of their own net lately, I believe we're in for another relatively high-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Newark. Of course, the Rangers will not only be looking to snap a two-game losing streak on Tuesday but they'll also be out for revenge after dropping a 7-4 decision here (in a game they led 2-0) back on March 22nd. Note that while the Rangers average 3.1 goals per game this season, that scoring average jumps to 3.9 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite (nine-game sample size). The Devils should afford the Blueshirts plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that New Jersey has allowed 6, 6, 6, 4, 3, 4, 2, 8, 7 and 4 goals over its last 10 games. Without question we've seen the Devils sacrifice defense for offense down the stretch, scoring three goals or more in eight of their last 10 contests and six or more twice over their last seven games. Going all the way back to February 28th, the Devils have fired 30+ shots on goal in nine straight games here at home. The Rangers have been a solid defensive team this season but that hasn't been the case lately. They check in having given up 25 goals over their last seven contests. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has posted a disappointing .899 save percentage over his last four starts and has allowed 17 goals over his last five games between the pipes. Backup Alex Georgiev has of course struggled for much of the season, particularly on the road where he owns a .887 save percentage. Devils games have seen an average total of 6.8 goals this season but that average jumps to 7.4 when they come off eight or more losses in their last 10 games, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at an 11-4 clip in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). |
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04-04-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Lightning are coming off a rare home loss on Saturday night, falling by a 5-4 score in a shootout against Montreal. Tampa Bay has now seen the 'over' cash in three straight games and has scored 4+ goals in four consecutive games - its longest such streak of the season. Contrary to popular belief, that's not really the style the Lightning like to employ. While they can score with the best of them, they prefer to play a 'crash and bang' style of hockey to wear down the opposition. It's worth noting that they gave regular starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy the night off on Saturday. He's been rounding back into form lately, with the Bolts allowing just 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1, 3 and 2 goals in his last eight starts (the 'under' went 6-2 in those eight contests). Here, we'll note that Tampa has seen the 'under' cash at a 7-1 clip when coming off three or more consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. The Leafs are red hot offensively right now, scoring 5+ goals in each of their last four contests. They average an impressive 3.9 goals per game on the road this season but that number drops to 2.7 when coming off four consecutive games in which they scored 4+ goals. On the flip side, Tampa has allowed just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons (22-game sample size). The Bolts took the most recent meeting between these two teams by a 5-3 score in Toronto and that's notable as the 'under' has gone 17-8 with the Leafs on the road seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.5 goals. Toronto welcomed back goaltender Jack Campbell on Saturday in Philadelphia and after a shaky first period in which he allowed two goals on 11 shots, he stopped 20 of 21 shots on goal the rest of the way in a 6-3 Leafs victory. While the last meeting between these two teams was high-scoring as I mentioned, the 'under' has actually cashed in 24 of the last 38 matchups in the series. Interestingly, the two previous matchups this season saw closing totals of just 5.5 so we're dealing with a considerably higher total here. With the Leafs and Bolts currently tied for second place in the Atlantic Division, this game takes on added importance and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 151 | Top | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third meeting between these rivals this season with the previous two both sailing 'over' the total we're working with on Saturday. Given the way both teams have played leading up to and in this tournament, barring one of both sides going ice cold shooting the ball, I see no other way to go but the 'over' again here in their much-anticipated Final Four showdown. We missed with the 'over' in the Tar Heels most recent game - a 69-49 rout of an overmatched St. Peter's squad last Sunday. The Peacocks actually got off 60 field goal attempts in that game but knocked down only 18 of them in the blowout loss. North Carolina has now yielded its opponents 73, 81 (OT game against Baylor), 62 and 60 FG attempts in four games in this tournament. Prior to its Elite Eight matchup, UNC had allowed 25+ made field goals in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have made good on 25+ field goals in eight of their last nine games overall. While not all of their recent opponents have shot well, the Blue Devils have essentially been a 'swinging door' defensively, allowing 62+ field goal attempts in eight consecutive games. Seven of their last eight opponents have knocked down 26+ field goals with the 'over' going 6-1-1 over that stretch. Of course, from an offensive standpoint, few are doing it better than the Blue Devils right now as they've made good on 30, 32, 28 and 29 field goals in their first four games in this tournament. Duke has scored 78+ points in nine of its last 10 games overall. Its lone 'under' result over that stretch came in a game where its opening round opponents in this tourney, Cal-State Fullerton, shot a woeful 24-of-64 from the field. With UNC allowing 65 field goal attempts per game away from home this season, not to mention eight made threes per contest, I believe the door is open for Duke to set the pace on Saturday. Meanwhile, we haven't seen UNC's best offensively over the last couple of games but we know its capable of keeping up here, noting that it scored a whopping 95 points in a stunning victory in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor back on March 5th. Take the over (10*). |
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04-01-22 | Islanders v. Rangers -160 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on the Rangers over the Islanders at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Islanders are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now but the fact is, it's too little, too late. The Rangers come in playing well also, winners of four games in a row, scoring 18 goals in the process. The Blueshirts will have revenge in mind here after they dropped a 2-1 decision at home against the Isles back on March 17th. Note that the Isles are just 7-14 when coming off a win by two or more goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.5 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 13-4 when coming off a game in which they allowed 4+ goals, outscoring the opposition by 1.0 goal on average in that spot. Take the Rangers (10*). |
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03-30-22 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 228 | Top | 117-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-29-22 | Senators v. Predators UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. The Senators have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two contests while Nashville enters Tuesday's game riding a six-game 'over' streak. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however, as Ottawa travels to Nashville. Note that the Sens average only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11-2 clip. The 'under' is an incredible 17-5 with the Sens coming off a game that totalled 7+ goals, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-15 with the Predators playing at home off an 'over' result over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of just 5.3 goals in that spot. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous game this season, resulting in an average total of only 3.9 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier OVER 142 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 127 h 30 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Bonaventure and Xavier at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'over' in Xavier's most recent game - a 75-73 NIT quarter-final victory over Vanderbilt. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the Musketeers take on St. Bonaventure in NIT semi-final action on Tuesday. Xavier continues to allow the opposition to get off plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 60, 65, 64, 60, 64 and 59 field goal attempts over its last six games. St. Bonaventure figures to take advantage of those opportunities, noting that it has knocked down 30, 24, 29, 27 and 20 field goals over its last five games with the outlier being a defensive slugfest against one of the slowest-paced and defensively-elite teams in the country in Virginia last time out. The Bonnies have generally done a nice job of limiting their opponents opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 FG attempts in 12 straight games heading into this one. However, they'll have their hands full with Xavier. The Musketeers check in having made good on 35, 33, 24, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five contests, most recently thriving in the second half of their win over Vandy. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Xavier was held to fewer than 72 points. In a game where I expect the pace to tick up a bit, I'm confident both offenses can continue to thrive and this total will quite simply prove too low. Take the over (10*). |
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03-28-22 | Southern Utah v. Fresno State OVER 135.5 | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
The Basketball Classic Third Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Southern Utah and Fresno State at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State has looked like a different team in this tournament, making good on 28 and 27 field goals while scoring 80+ points in both games. Perhaps getting out of the defensive-minded Mountain West Conference was just what the doctor ordered. Here, the Bulldogs draw another vulnerable defensive opponent in Southern Utah. The Jaguars have consistently allowed between 23-28 made field goals per contest over the last month. On the flip side, Southern Utah has been scoring with the best of them, knocking down 27, 28, 25, 28, 32 and 29 field goals over its last six contests. Fresno State played lights out defensive basketball earlier in the season but that hasn't really been the case lately. The Bulldogs have yielded 26, 20, 26 and 23 made field goals over their last four games, despite a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate the Jaguars forcing the issue a little more than Fresno's recent opponents, noting that they've averaged 27-for-61 shooting away from home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 240 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Thursday's Arkansas-Gonzaga game wasn't a typical one for the Razorbacks. They average 60 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and had gotten off 57 or fewer in four straight games prior to that contest. Yet they ended up hoisting up 72 field goal attempts, making good only only 29 of them, in that stunning upset victory. On the flip side, they also allowed the Zags to get off 64 FG attempts - well north of the 57 FG attempts they yield on average away from home this season. It's not the way Hogs head coach Eric Musselman wants this game to play out on Saturday against the red hot Blue Devils, I'm sure of that. Duke has shot better than 51% in each of its first three games in this tournament. Interestingly, it has actually attempted 58 or fewer field goals in all three contests. I'm not expecting anything to come easy for the Blue Devils on offense here. Note that Arkansas has held six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. With that being said, there is seemingly a 'ceiling' for the Arkansas offense. Even with 70+ FG attempts against Gonzaga it still managed to make good on just 29 field goals. Prior to that it had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. The Hogs have of course made their living at the free throw line this season but it is worth mentioning that the Blue Devils send opponents to the charity stripe just 12 times per game. With the Blue Devils coming off consecutive 'over' results (we cashed with the 'over' in both games), I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 133 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NCAA Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Peter's and Purdue at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen this total drop since opening as it seems bettors have little faith in St. Peter's to keep it rolling against Purdue. The Peacocks have certainly impressed through two tournament games, scoring 85 points in a win over Kentucky (aided by overtime - they scored 71 points in regulation time) and then 70 points in a double-digit victory over Murray State. Even though the game against Kentucky went to overtime, the Peacocks still made good on 27-of-54 field goal attempts in regulation time. Here, they're likely to be afforded a whole lot more scoring opportunities, noting that Purdue has yielded 61, 60, 59, 69, 61, 63 and 68 field goal attempts over its last seven games. The Boilermakers allow an average of 61 FG attempts per game away from home this season. Not only that, but the opposition has knocked down an average of nine three-pointers per game against the Boilers away from their home gym. My point is, there's going to be a path for the Peacocks to score a reasonable number of points and keep this game competitive - which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Of course, little needs to be said about the Purdue offense. The Boilers currently rank first in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. While St. Peter's has been terrific defensively, coming from the MAAC it's no surprise that its slate of opponents ranks 185th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. This is a considerable step up in class, noting that the Peacocks allowed Kentucky to make good on 26-of-61 field goal attempts in the opening round of this tournament (again, aided by overtime). Earlier in the season, St. Peter's faced a couple of opponents in the same vein as Purdue, with those contests totalling 161 points against St. John's and 156 points against Providence - another team that's still dancing in this tournament. I mentioned that Purdue has yielded plenty of FG attempts on a game-by-game basis but it has also allowed 26+ made field goals in seven of its last nine games. Both teams have shown the ability to get to the free throw line with St. Peter's averaging 20 field goal attempts per game while also sending opponents to the line 22 times per contest. Purdue averages 22 trips to the charity stripe per game. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-22 | Capitals v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Friday. NOTE: Both teams threw us a bit of a curveball, announcing Ilya Samsonov (Capitals) and Dustin Tokarski (Sabres) as the starting goaltenders tonight. A matchup between the two backup goaltenders obviously isn't the worst thing for us with an 'over' ticket, even though I did like the way we were set up with Vanecek vs. Anderson as noted below. The Capitals have gone from being red hot to losing consecutive games, scoring exactly two goals in each of those losses. This is an ideal bounce-back spot on the road against Buffalo, however, noting that Washington has scored 30 goals in its last eight meetings in this series and averages 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. There's a good chance we'll see Vitek Vanecek in goal for the Caps here and that's notable as he has struggled lately, allowing 19 goals in his last six games. Of course Buffalo has been a mess between the pipes for most of the season. Craig Anderson likely gets the nod in goal on Friday. The veteran has allowed 11 goals over his last three games. Interestingly, the Sabres have averaged 3.6 goals per game when coming off an overtime win over the last three seasons (10-game sample size), as is the case here. Buffalo has quietly improved its scoring average to 2.9 goals per game here on home ice this season after finding the back of the net 12 times over its last three home contests. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just five goals back in December. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive meetings in this series total fewer than six goals since 2017-18. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). |
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