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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-01-20 | Bayern Munich v. Atletico Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm playing the 'over' on the Asian total at 2.5 goals in this one. At the time of writing that number is widely available priced around -140. This match obviously means a lot more to Atletico Madrid than it does to Bayern Munich, with the latter having already wrapped up first place in the group. As such, Bayern will field what is essentially its 'B' squad with some exceptions on Tuesday in Spain. With that being said, Bayern isn't simply going to roll over and give Atletico Madrid the three points. I look for them to at least find the back of the net once in this match. On the flip side, Atletico Madrid is coming off a rather subdued 1-0 win over Valencia in La Liga action over the weekend. They did control possession for 67% of that match and also fired 14 shots with six of them hitting target. I do see this as a potential breakout spot for Atletico against a Munich squad that should be much easier to break down than it was in their last meeting - a 4-0 BM victory back in October. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While I'm not expecting a defensive slugfest in this game (those type of affairs are virtually non-existent in today's NFL) I do believe the total will prove to be too high. Seattle's offense has taken a step back in the last couple of games and while this does look like a favorable matchup at first glance, a deeper looks shows the Eagles have proven capable of limiting the big play potential of opposing wide receivers while also playing tough run defense, giving up just 3.4 yards per rush. I believe we'll see Seahawks QB Russell Wilson orchestrate plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game. Note that Seattle was the best 'over' bet in the league earlier in the season but has now seen its last two games stay 'under' the total. Philadelphia's offense continues to be hampered by injuries on the offensive line and a largely ineffective QB in Carson Wentz. The Eagles will trot out their eighth different offensive line combination in 11 games on Monday night. Head coach Doug Pederson has also alluded to the fact that rookie backup QB Jalen Hurts could see more playing time and I'm not sure that's a positive for an offense that is trying to find some continuity. Note that the Seahawks pass rush has stepped up in recent weeks, recording 16 sacks in their last four games. Wentz has certainly been prone to drive-stalling plays (no quarterback has taken more sacks this season) and I believe we could see more of that tonight, with Philadelphia moving the football but not finishing drives with 7's on the board. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Rams last game - a 27-24 win over Tampa Bay on Monday night. That was somewhat of an uncharacteristic breakout performance from the Los Angeles offense, but with the Bucs defense suddenly slumping, perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Here, the Rams go up against a familiar divisional foe in the 49ers and while San Francisco continues to play without a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, that unit has still managed to hold its own, allowing just over 3.5 yards per rush and limiting the big play potential of opposing offenses. Meanwhile, the Niners offense is a shell of its former self with a number of key players sidelined due to Covid or otherwise. We may see the Niners make some headway on the ground in this one but that actually plays into our favor as we could see them grind out some clock-churning drives, but perhaps not be able to finish many of those drives with 7's on the board. You'd be hard-pressed to find a defense that minimizes the impact of opposing wide receivers more than the Rams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 44 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
NFL Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a smash spot for the Giants offense (now that's something we don't say very often) as they return from their bye week to face a Bengals defense that has been blown up time and time again this season. Only three teams have recorded fewer sacks and five fewer quarterback hits than Cincinnati this season which should really open things up for promising but mistake-prone Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. While the G-Men by no means boast an elite ground attack they should have little trouble running wild against a Bengals defense that allows well over five yards per rush this season. Of course, few are expecting much from the Cincinnati offense now that super rookie Joe Burrow is sidelined for the year. With that being said, I believe the Bengals have a bit of upside here as they catch New York in a possible letdown or even lookahead spot now that Burrow is out. Word is that Brandon Allen will get the call-up from the practice squad to start this game. I prefer Allen over backup Ryan Finley, noting that Allen did see some game action with the Broncos last year and has some history with Bengals head coach Zac Taylor from their days together with the Rams. It's not as if Allen is devoid of any weapons as WR Tyler Boyd remains a home run threat at any given time. One thing I don't think we'll see is Cincinnati go on long, clock-churning drives in this game, which plays into our hands with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 48 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in Utah's season-opening loss to USC last Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Utes head to Washington to face the Huskies. All things considered, Utah held up well defensively against the Trojans last week, allowing just 357 total yards while recording three sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers, including one they returned for a touchdown. Offensively, the Utes will need some time to mesh with a lot of new pieces in place this year. This is a tough second matchup against a good Huskies defense that comes in off a bye week due to a Covid-related cancellation last Saturday. Washington has allowed just 48 points through two games this season but that includes a punt return touchdown against Oregon State. Note that in the Huskies most recent game they actually pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter against Arizona. Offensively, Washington isn't all that threatening. It took advantage of a bad Wildcats defense last time out but will obviously be facing a difficult matchup against a perennially-tough Utes defense on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with Oregon in the game formerly known as the 'Civil War' on Friday night in Corvallis. The Ducks are off to a perfect 3-0 start to the season and believe they can work themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation. I'm not sure we've seen their best football just yet, however. Last week they narrowly avoided a disaster in a 38-35 win over UCLA, not even sniffing a cover as a 17.5-point favorite. Here, we're dealing with a more manageable pointspread, and I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from an Oregon squad that even with its flaws has put up a whopping 116 points through three games. The offense should hum against a Beavers defense that hasn't generated much of a pass rush, recording just three sacks through three games. Oregon State boasts a tremendous ground attack led by RB Jermar Jefferson. He has yet to be slowed this season, rushing for at least 120 yards and a touchdown or more in all three games. I think the Ducks can come up with a few big plays against Beavers QB Tristan Gebbia, however. Gebbia has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season and hasn't proven to be any sort of threat with his legs. As good as Jefferson is, the Beavers aren't really built to play from behind and I expect Gebbia's inexperience to show in this matchup. Rallying to beat Cal last week is one thing, but doing so against a powerhouse like Oregon is another matter entirely. Take Oregon (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday. We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-24-20 | Club Brugge KV v. Borussia Dortmund OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' 3.5 goals between Club Brugge and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met in Champions League action back on November 4th, Borussia Dortmund rolled to a 3-0 victory. Club Brugge had to throw its gameplan out the window early in that contest as Dortmund scored three goals in the first 32 minutes. I do expect Brugge to contribute to the total this time around, noting that it did ultimately manage 11 shots with four of those hitting the target in that 3-0 setback, while also recording eight crosses compared to Dortmund's five. Note that Brugge had scored at least a goal in its previous two Champions League matches before the shutout loss to Dortmund. Based on how it is playing at the moment, I put Borussia Dortmund in a similar class to that of fellow Bundesliga squad Bayern Munich. In fact, Dortmund's lone defeat in its last six matches came by a 3-2 score against Bayern back on November 7th. Since then it has played just once, recording an impressive 5-2 victory over Hertha Berlin this past weekend. I have this one finishing either 3-1 or 4-1. Take the over 3.5 goals (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
CFB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Nevada in last week's win but non-cover on the road against New Mexico but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wolf Pack in a much different scenario this week, playing as a short home underdog against San Diego State. This is obviously a huge game in the Mountain West Conference, earning rare national TV billing on CBS. We've been high on Nevada all season and see this as a big-time spot for the Wolf Pack to make a statement. San Diego State successfully bounced back from its surprising home loss against San Jose State the week previous, scoring a 34-10 rout of Hawaii last Saturday. Keep in mind, the Aztecs recorded a whopping seven sacks and forced three turnovers in that game - you would almost think the eventual winning margin would have been much larger based on that. We saw some complete defensive breakdowns from Hawaii in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdown runs of 51 and 62 runs. It's unlikely we'll see those type of breakdowns from a Nevada squad whose longest touchdown allowed this season was just 22 yards back in its season-opener against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack essentially sleepwalked through their victory over New Mexico last week. At times we have seen Nevada suffer brief lapses of concentration this season but I'm confident it will be up for, and hyper-focused on the task at hand against a perennial MWC contender San Diego State this week. Note that Nevada took this matchup by a 17-13 score last year. In what should be a higher-scoring affair this time around, I like the Wolf Pack to repeat that effort. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Friday. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -147 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle (moneyline) over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. As this price continues to drop, the Seahawks are now a shoo-in for my Thursday card but rather than lay points given their defensive inefficiencies which always keep the back-door open, I'll back them on the moneyline. The Cardinals are in a clear letdown spot coming off that thrilling last-second victory over Buffalo last week. You might remember the Cards also snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Seahawks earlier this month, putting Seattle in a clear revenge spot at home here on Thursday night. I mentioned the Seahawks defensive struggles, but lost in the Cards recent success has been their inability to slow down any opposing offense. Of course, injuries have played a big role as Arizona is missing a number of key cogs up front - most notably edge rusher Chandler Jones. Last week a road-weary Seahawks squad wasn't able to match the Rams intensity, ultimately falling in a second straight disappointing contest for their backers. Here, I look for the Seahawks to ramp back up for a big division game, and ultimately prevail in spite of Cards QB Kyler Murray's efforts. Take Seattle moneyline (10*). |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MAC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Western Michigan is coming off what some will call a miracle come-from-behind win over Toledo last week so it would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown here on Wednesday night. I don't see that happening, however, as this is a rivalry game with Central Michigan and in this unique Covid-shortened 2020 campaign, the Broncos might need to run the table to reach the MAC Championship Game. While Central Michigan does check in 2-0 on the season, I haven't been overly impressed by either of its wins. In the Chips' first victory they recorded five sacks, forced a pair of turnovers and dominated the time of possession battle, but still won by just three points over Ohio, at home no less. Last week they rolled to a 40-10 victory over an inexperienced Northern Illinois squad that is essentially playing for next year. CMU will definitely be stepping up in class in this one, having dropped its last two meetings with WMU. The two teams are actually quite similar in a lot of ways, but I like the Broncos offense a little more at this stage of the season and believe their defense can rise to the occasion following a tough game against a good Toledo offense last week. Note that the Broncos will likely be without one of their best defenders in Ali Fayad after he suffered an ankle injury last week. I still like the Broncos here and will consider it a big bonus if he does play. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MAC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo is the cream of the crop when it comes to the MAC and is already off to a perfect 2-0 start on the heels of back-to-back blowout wins, scoring 40+ points in both contests. With that being said, it's difficult to envision the Bulls truly getting up for this Tuesday night trip to Bowling Green. Note that Buffalo will enjoy a few extra days off after this one, not playing again until next Saturday. It's also worth noting that it's next two games are much bigger ones, particularly it's next one against undefeated Kent State. Bowling Green has been blown out in each of its first two games, although both contests came against upper-echelon MAC squads in Toledo and Kent State. I'm always one to look for the positives, however, and I will point out that the Falcons have allowed just two sacks through two games and have also found some success running the football. I do think that Bowling Green can move the football consistently enough to eat some clock in this game and ultimately shorten proceedings and keep things respectable against a Bulls squad that is simply looking to win and move on. We've seen virtually nothing from the Falcons passing game so far this season even though they have a Boston College transfer at quarterback in Matt McDonald - and he comes in with some knowledge of head coach Scot Loeffler's system with Loeffler having been the offensive coordinator at BC. Again looking at the positives, McDonald threw two interceptions in his Falcons debut two weeks ago but didn't toss a single pick in last week's blowout loss. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Temple v. Central Florida -25.5 | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Temple at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Central Florida, even as it lays close to four touchdowns. Temple's season is quickly going down the drain. Off to a 1-4 start, there's likely only one potential victory left on its schedule, that likely coming in a matchup with East Carolina. Injuries have played a role, but the simple fact is, the Owls defense hasn't been able to overcome all of the key losses from last year's team and the offense just hasn't been good enough to prevail in shootouts. Here, the Owls will once again be hard-pressed to keep pace with another explosive offense, even if QB Anthony Russo can return from injury (as is expected). Central Florida suffered stunning consecutive losses against Tulsa and Memphis in October but has since responded with back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 95 points in the process. Now the path is there for the Knights to run the table, even if a difficult matchup against Cincinnati lies in waiting next week (UCF gets that game at home). This is obviously a key matchup for UCF as it looks to make that game against the Bearcats next week matter. While the Knights offense will undoubtedly continue to roll against a very beatable Temple defense, the question is whether UCF's defense can rise to the occasion and help stretch the margin out in this one. I believe it can and will. This is an experienced Knights defense that absolutely manhandled a good Houston offense last week, not allowing a single offensive score until over midway through the third quarter. Yes, they've been involved in plenty of high-scoring shootouts this season, but I'm confident the UCF defense can come up with enough 'splash plays' to ultimately put this game away for good. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over New Mexico at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. Nevada is off to a terrific 3-0 start to the season, with all three wins coming in impressive fashion. Yet, the Wolf Pack still find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the AP Top 25 goes, receiving just one vote in this week's poll. That could change after this game, however, as Nevada is in line to deliver another decisive victory against New Mexico. While this is considered a road game, it will actually be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas due to Covid protocols. Speaking of Covid protocols, the Wolf Pack have been forced to practice in two separate units, offense and defense. That's nothing new for Nevada, however, as that's how it prepared for this unique 2020 season over the summer months. We won with the Wolf Pack last week as they got off to a bit of a shaky start but ultimately rolled to a 34-9 win over Utah State. This is a similarly favorable matchup against a winless New Mexico squad that battled hard, but ultimately fell short in last week's 39-33 loss to Hawaii. It's worth noting that the Lobos will be forced to go with their backup quarterback this week after Tevaka Tuioti suffered a concussion in last week's contest. That puts QB Trae Hall in a tough spot this week, as he prepares to face a fierce Nevada defense that seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Nevada took this matchup 21-10 last year but this is a stronger Wolf Pack squad, and I expect them to stretch out the margin this time around. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is the tail-end of a key two-game stretch that North Carolina obviously had circled as must-win contests after dropping two of three previously. The Tar Heels accomplished task number one by brushing aside Duke in blowout fashion last week and I look for them to deliver another lopsided victory against streaking Wake Forest on Saturday. The Demon Deacons started the season with consecutive losses but have rattled off four straight wins since. Note that those four victories came against teams that own a combined 7-18 record. We generally know what we're going to get from the North Carolina offense, but in this particular matchup, I look for its defense to rise to the occasion. We saw signs of that unit turning the corner in last week's win over Duke as it recorded five sacks and generally made life miserable for the Blue Devils offense. This is a similarly-enticing matchup noting that Deacs' QB Sam Hartman has been sacked 18 times in five games against FBS opponents this season. Wake Forest defeated North Carolina by a 24-18 score last season, but September 2019 seems like an awfully long time ago now. I see this as a critical contest for the Tar Heels as they'll face an uphill battle against Notre Dame and Miami over the next couple of games. Look for them avenge last year's loss with a decisive victory. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Iowa at 7 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this Big Ten matchup sets up on Friday night. I'm a believer that the oddsmakers rarely 'get it wrong' but in this particular case, I'm willing to make an exception. Perhaps this line has something to do with the fact that Iowa blew the doors off of Michigan State 49-7 last week. Keep in mind, the Spartans were in a clear letdown spot following an upset win over in-state rival Michigan, at The Big House no less, the previous week. It's also worth noting that the Minnesota bandwagon cleared quickly this season as it dropped its season-opener in blowout fashion against Michigan (in front of a national ABC audience). I like what the Gophers bring to the table here, with an offense that is suddenly humming behind the strong running of RB Mo Ibrahim. Their offense is going to be fine with experienced QB Tanner Morgan at the helm. Defensively, the Gophers clearly have some issues to work out, but I'm not convinced that Iowa is capable of taking advantage. The Hawkeyes are by no means an elite offensive team, even if they did approach the 50-point mark last week. Iowa took last year's meeting by a narrow margin, but I look for Minnesota to get its revenge here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with Ball State in last week's wild 38-31 loss against defending MAC champion Miami-Ohio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Cardinals as they host Eastern Michigan in their home opener this week. Despite the loss, there was a lot to like in Ball State's season debut. Its offense moved the football at will for much of the game, racking up nearly 500 total yards while going 9-of-15 converting on third down. It was ultimately undone by a late interception and some porous offensive line play as it allowed five sacks. I expect the Cardinals to fare better against an Eastern Michigan defense that managed only one sack for two yards in last week's narrow loss to Kent State. The Eagles were fortunate to stay within arm's reach of the Golden Flashes in that game, largely due to a bit of a sloppy performance from Kent State, which committed nine penalties. EMU only managed 302 total yards, including a miserable 61 on the ground. Ball State should be able to win this game in the trenches. It boasts a terrific ground attack led by RB Caleb Huntley, and is more than capable of putting the game away should it build a second half lead, as I expect. Huntley appeared to be in midseason form last week, running for 130 yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had two wide receivers top 100 yards through the air, despite QB Drew Plitt completing just 19 passes. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This should be a 'name your score' type of game for Ohio as it looks to bounce back from a 30-27 loss against Central Michigan last week against perennial MAC bottom-feeder Akron. With that being said, I'm not convinced we're going to see a ton of offensive fireworks. The Bobcats did well to put up 27 points in last week's setback, although it's worth noting that seven of those points came by way of a kickoff return for a touchdown. QB Nathan Rourke did it all for Ohio last season but he has since moved on, making way for his younger brother Kurtis, who is really more of a pocket passer and had mixed results in his starting debut last week. Dual-threat UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will continue to see playing time as well - I'm not a big fan of the two-headed QB system but it likely helps the Bobcats churn out some long, clock-churning drives in this one. After getting dominated in terms of time of possession in last week's loss, look for Ohio to flip the script and control this game from the opening kickoff. Akron scored 13 points in last week's blowout loss to Western Michigan. I believe it will be hard-pressed to reach that number again here. The Zips had one of the nation's worst offenses last year and there's little reason for optimism here in a unique 2020 campaign. While we may see Akron put together some lengthy drives against an Ohio defense that is by no means in midseason form (it didn't record a single sack last week), I don't expect it to end many of those drives with points on the board. To get 'over' this total I believe there would have to be solid contributions from both squads - I simply don't see that happening on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the Patriots head to the Meadowlands to face the hapless Jets on Monday night. New England's offense has been laboring, largely due to QB Cam Newton's shakiness since returning to the field following his COVID diagnosis last month. The good news is, Newton is line for a big bounce-back performance here. The Jets defense has been virtually non-existent, having traded away most of its key pieces as the team continues to 'tank for Trevor', or at least that seems to be the case. We've seen the Pats ground game start to gain some traction and in this particular matchup they should feast against a putrid Jets front. So the question is whether New York can find enough offensive success to help this one 'over' the total. I believe it can. The Patriots defense has held up ok but is expected to be without its best player in CB Stephon Gilmore once again. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting healthier on offense with Sam Darnold's favorite target, WR Jamison Crowder, expected to return. Keep in mind, he had racked up over 100 receiving yards in three of four games before going down to injury earlier in the season. Things could potentially open up a bit for the New York offense here considering the Pats are giving up just shy of five yards per rush. While there's little reason to anticipate an offensive explosion from the Jets, we really don't need such a performance given this relatively low posted total. Even last week in a much tougher situation on the road against the Chiefs, New York did manage to orchestrate three first half scoring drives. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential - as do most games played at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. The Broncos roared back from a big fourth quarter deficit to stun the Chargers on a last-second touchdown last Sunday and QB Drew Lock and co. find themselves in another favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. No other team gives up more big plays (plays of 20+ yards) through the air than Atlanta. We've seen the Broncos offense involve into a more pass-heavy attack with the emergence of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and TE Noah Fant. I don't expect Denver to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football a whole lot against a Falcons defense that has actually proven to be stout against the run, giving up under four yards per rush. On the flip side, the Falcons should go back to airing it out after a subpar performance in that regard in last week's victory in Carolina. While WR Calvin Ridley is sidelined, Julio Jones is more than capable of shouldering the load. It's also worth noting that the door is open for Todd Gurley to go off against a Broncos defense that has allowed well north of five yards per rush over the last couple of games, with key injuries on the defensive side of the football playing a role in that regression. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled just 44 points in a Texans blowout win back on October 11th but I believe the potential is there for this one to be considerably higher-scoring. While the Jags will be without QB Gardner Minshew in this game, installing Jake Luton under center, I'm not sure it really matters. It's not as if Minshew was lighting the league on fire before he suffered a thumb injury. RB James Robinson has become the clear focal point of the Jags offense and he should enjoy plenty of success both on the ground (Houston is allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per rush this season) and in the short passing game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense is in line for a big breakout performance coming off their bye week, facing an undermanned Jags defense that has struggled all season long. QB DeShaun Watson has looked like a new man since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien and should continue to thrive here against a Jags defense that doesn't apply any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The trade deadline passed earlier this week without Houston moving WR Will Fuller and that should be music to the ears of Watson. Even RB David Johnson, who has been a virtual non-factor for the Texans this season, could have a big day against a Jags defense that has been getting torched by opposing backs in recent weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 55.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Coastal Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most in this key Sun Belt showdown on Saturday night. South Alabama fell to an even 3-3 on the season with a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. Now it stays on the road for an even tougher matchup against upstart Coastal Carolina, which is fresh off a 51-0 dismantling of Georgia State last week. A key here is the South Alabama defense. We actually started the 2020 campaign with a winner with the 'under' in USA's first game of the season - an upset win at Southern Miss. The Jaguars defense certainly held its own in October, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in three games, going 2-1 in the process. While Coastal Carolina has thrived offensively thanks in large part to the exploits of QB Grayson McCall, the Jaguars check in having allowed just four touchdown passes in six games this season. We've seen a few explosions from the Chanticleers offense this season but I'm not convinced we'll see them run up the score here, coming off that 51-point effort last week. Lost in last week's rout was the performance of their defense as they shutout a Georgia State squad that had put up a whopping 168 points in its first four games this season. Coastal Carolina is certainly capable of holding what I consider to be an over-achieving South Alabama offense at bay in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for Big Blue coming off a very disappointing field goal loss to rival Michigan State last Saturday. Perhaps the Wolverines got caught reading their own press following a much easier than expected rout of Minnesota in their Big Ten opener (we lost with Minnesota in that game). Now that they've been brought back to Earth by the Spartans, I look for a much sharper performance from Jim Harbaugh's squad on Saturday. Indiana is off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start, scoring a ton of points in the process. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Hoosiers keeping it rolling here, however. Note that QB Michael Penix has completed just 36-of-62 passes and has been sacked four times through two games. Meanwhile, leading rusher Stevie Scott has carried the football 20+ times in both games, topping out at just 79 rushing yards. The last time these two teams met last November, Michigan won in a rout, 39-14. This one might not be that lopsided, but I'm comfortable laying the points with the Wolverines on the road. Take Michigan (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has been dropping since word broke that the 49ers would be without a number of key cogs on the offensive side of the football due to COVID-19 protocols. Of course, San Francisco was already going to be missing many other players due to injuries, including QB Jimmy Garroppolo, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel - the list goes on and on. I actually feel the total has shifted too low. The Packers offense should absolutely feast in this contest, even as that unit deals with key injuries of its own including one to RB Aaron Jones who I believe is unlikely to play again this week. QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed plenty of success this season and should pick apart an injury-ravaged 49ers defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush here in 2020. On the flip side, the Packers defense is nothing special and has been repeatedly torched by opposing running games. The 49ers are depleted at the running back position, but should still be able to gain some traction against what is quite simply one of the league's worst run defenses. Look for RB Jerick McKinnon to step up in the absence of San Francisco's household names out of the backfield. Likewise, Niners QB Nick Mullens always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder and provided he can stay away from CB Jaire Alexander, he should be able to move the football and ultimately put points on the board for his squad. This may not be a true shootout, but I do expect it to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Thursday. While no in-conference matchup should ever be considered a 'gimme', I do believe Nevada is in terrific position to move to 3-0 in Mountain West Conference play and take this one by a lopsided margin on Thursday night. Utah State has been the worst team in the Mountain West through two games, and might just be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. While the Aggies have faced a tough draw to open the campaign, going up against Boise State and San Diego State - two of the MWC's best teams - things don't figure to get any easier here. Note that last week the Aggies lone score came on a SDSU defensive breakdown on the final play of the first half. Against Boise State, Utah State didn't score until the final two minutes of the third quarter - when the game was already out of hand. Nevada, meanwhile, checks in a perfect 2-0, winning a tight one against upstart Wyoming before blowing out UNLV last week. I liked the way Nevada put the latter game away late, holding UNLV scoreless in the fourth quarter while scoring 10 points itself. Nevada QB Carson Strong has thrown for 770 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. There's no real look-ahead at play for the Wolf Pack here as they'll face winless New Mexico next Saturday. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Ball State boasts plenty of upside off a very disappointing 2019 campaign - I say disappointing not because the Cardinals played all that poorly, but because they were unable to come up with enough victories in close games to earn Bowl eligibility. They ultimately went 5-7 with three losses coming by a grand total of eight points. Most of the key pieces are back on offense, where Ball State is loaded with potential entering the 2020 season. While this is a tough opening matchup, it's one the Cardinals need to succeed in if they're going to challenge for a MAC title. The key could be whether or not Ball State can ratchet up the pressure on the defensive side of the football, where they simply had no success getting to opposing quarterbacks a year ago. I believe they can with an experienced group that returns 12 of 15 top tacklers, going up against a Redhawks offensive line that had a tough time keeping their QB upright. Miami-Ohio stunned most by winning the MAC Championship last season. Don't count on a repeat performance in 2020. While a lot of the key players from last year's squad are back, I don't see a great deal of upside or progression on the horizon. This could be a year where the rest of the MAC catches up with the Redhawks and the pendulum swings in the other direction after they won so many tight contests a year ago. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Manchester United v. Basaksehir OVER 3 | Top | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' 3 goals between Manchester United and Istanbul Basaksehir at 12:55 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Manchester United's most recent Champions League match - a 5-0 victory over RB Leipzig last Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, even after Man U was held off the scoresheet for a second consecutive EPL match this past Sunday. The Champions League has obviously been another story as United has gone a perfect 2-0, scoring seven goals in the process. Here we should see it enjoy continued success in a favorable matchup with Basaksehir. With that being said, the Istanbul side has perhaps deserved a better fate than an 0-2, scoreless Champions League start. Note that it has controlled 52% and 47% of the possession in its first two matches against RB Leipzig and Paris-St. Germain. It has also managed seven shots on target - not bad considering the level of opposition it faced. That's not to mention 44 crosses. The fact is, this is an aggressive, attacking side that I do expect to find the back of the net on Wednesday against Man U. Rather than play the Asian total of 2 3/4 goals we'll go over the 3 at a plus-money return (at the time of writing). Take the over 3 goals (10*). |
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11-03-20 | Borussia Monchengladbach +120 v. Shakhtar Donetsk | Top | 6-0 | Win | 120 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Borussia Monchengladbach (three-way betting) over Shakhtar Donetsk at 12:55 pm et on Tuesday. I'll gladly back Monchengladbach at the return being offered in Champions League action on Tuesday. While it has gone winless through two matches, it has impressed in draws earned against Inter Milan and Real Madrid, scoring four goals in the process. It probably deserved a better fate against Real Madrid but conceded two late goals to settle for a draw - still an encouraging result against a powerful squad. In between those two Champions League draws, Monchengladbach has also racked up two more wins in Bundesliga action. Tuesday's opponent, Shakhtar Donetsk, has now played three full halves since its last goal in Champions League action. It scored three times in the first half against Real Madrid two weeks ago before holding on for a 3-2 victory in that contest and then settled for a 0-0 draw with Inter Milan last Tuesday. Note that Inter Milan did take it to Shakhtar for much of that match, but ultimately came up empty. I expect to see Monchengladbach do a better job of capitalizing on its opportunities and ultimately grabbing an elusive victory on Tuesday. Take Borussia Monchengladbach three-way betting (10*). |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it as the Titans head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. After their comeback fell just short against the Steelers last Sunday (we won with Pittsburgh in that game), the Titans should explode against an awful Bengals defense here. Cincinnati isn't doing anything to slow opposing running games which opens the door for a big day from Titans RB Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, they're not applying nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable. Likewise, Tennessee can't seem to get to the quarterback, which should spell trouble as it lined up against a steadily-improving and confident rookie QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals by no means possess an elite offense, but they are running a ton of plays and should be able to expose a bad Titans defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw just 20 total points scored when these two programs met a year ago, with all 20 of those points coming from Iowa. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium. Northwestern busted out for 43 points in its season debut last week, but that came at the expense of a bad Maryland team. We saw a number of defensive breakdowns from the Terps in that contest, allowing the Wildcats to score one touchdown on a broken play and two others from 30+ yards out. Northwestern will face a much tougher test against Iowa this week. The Hawkeyes suffered a tough 24-20 loss to Purdue in their opener. While Purdue QB nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, he needed 50 pass attempts to get to those totals. The fact that Iowa didn't put its best foot forward but still held the Boilermakers to only 24 points was telling. Offensively, Iowa will remain a work in progress. Expect a run-first gameplan against the Wildcats on Saturday, helping lead to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Georgia Southern at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair. South Alabama has scored 30 or more points in consecutive games - both victories - but those came against two of the nation's weakest teams in Texas State and Louisiana Monroe - not to mention the fact that both games were played at home. Here, the Jaguars will face a tougher challenge as they hit the road to face Georgia Southern, which should be in a sour mood following a tough loss to Coastal Carolina last week. The Eagles have topped out at 42 points in a game this season but that came against a bad UMass squad that was playing its first game of the season. While the Eagles do have an experienced signal-caller in QB Shai Werts, I don't have a great deal of confidence in them running up the score here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-28-20 | Lokomotive Leipzig v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between RB Leipzig and Manchester United at 4 pm et on Wednesday. RB Leipzig hasn't missed a beat since losing star Timo Werner to English side Chelsea, going undefeated in six Bundesliga matches (5 W, 1 D) and delivering a 2-0 victory over Istanbul Basaksehir in their Champions League opener last week. Leipzig has scored at least two goals in six of its last seven matches overall. Manchester United is coming off a less than inspiring 0-0 draw against Chelsea in the rain on Saturday. Neither side looked all that interested in playing for anything other than a draw in that contest. Here, I expect a much different story to unfold. Note that prior to Saturday's contest, Manchester United had seen 11 straight matches total at least three goals. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with the same total we saw in Game 5 despite what I would consider to be a considerably weaker pitching matchup on Tuesday night. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young award winner and certainly a capable starter but the fact is, save for a dominant effort against the Blue Jays way back in the Wild Card play-in series, he has struggled. Snell has given up 12 walks and five home runs in four starts going back to the ALDS, covering a span of just 18 2/3 innings. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles and manager Dave Roberts has indicated he'll be stretched out a little bit in this one. Like Snell, he has struggled here in the postseason, allowing seven walks and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. Both bullpens have given up their share of big hits in this series and throughout the playoffs. I'm confident playing the 'over' in this potential World Series clincher. Take the over (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Dodgers -164 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Tampa Bay at 8:08 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took back control of this series with a relatively easy 6-2 victory last night. I expect them to take full reins with another win on Saturday as they send Julio Urias to the hill against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Urias has been sharp both as a starter and out of the bullpen and I expect him to be comfortable making this start on Saturday night as well. In four postseason appearances he has allowed just one earned run on seven hits in 16 innings of work. Meanwhile, Yarbrough hasn't been as sharp in the playoffs as he was during the regular season, albeit in limited work. Yarbrough has allowed 11 hits, three walks and three home runs in 10 2/3 innings here in the postseason. The Dodgers are a confident bunch right now. We won with the Rays in their lone victory in this series but here I believe L.A. is the play, and in fact the price could be even higher than it is. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over West Virginia at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for home underdog Texas Tech. West Virginia was in a favorable spot last Saturday and delivered a blowout win over Kansas but that was to be expected. Here, the Mountaineers find themselves in a different situation, favored on the road against what will be a highly-motivated 1-3 Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders got off to a fine start this season, beating quality FCS opponent Houston Baptist in their opener before giving Texas all it could handle the next week. Since then, it has gotten off track, falling in tough back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Iowa State. With that being said, really how much better could we have expected Texas Tech to perform over the course of this tough early slate. This is a legitimate opportunity for the Red Raiders to get back in the win column before the schedule gets much tougher again with a home date against Oklahoma followed by a road game against TCU. Look for them to take advantage of the opportunity against a beatable West Virginia squad. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped into playable range since opening. We just haven't seen enough from Tulsa to get a true gauge of where the Golden Hurricane are at. After opening the season with a much lower-scoring than expected 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State they went on to stage a stunning upset of Central Florida in Orlando, scoring an impressive 34 points in the process. Here, I'm confident the Tulsa offense can ramp up again but I'm not sure the Golden Hurricane defense will hold up as well as it has to this point. It would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown emotionally against a 1-4 South Florida squad. The Bulls are still trying to get their offense sorted but this is a fine breakout spot at home coming off an extra week of practice. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do believe this one will ultimately climb over the very reasonable posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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10-21-20 | Atletico Madrid v. Bayern Munich UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' 2.75 goals between Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich at 3 pm et on Wednesday. There's plenty of offensive firepower on display in this match between two giants on Wednesday but I'm not convinced this early group stage match will turn into a high-scoring affair. Similarly to yesterday's match between Sevilla and Chelsea, I suspect we'll see a bit of a feeling out process in this one, noting that these two squads are unquestionably the best in Group A (Salzburg and Lokomotiv Moscow round out the grouping). As much as Bayern in particular would like to make a statement here in the opener, Atletico Madrid is solid in the back and more than capable of holding form. The simple fact that Munich has scored a whopping 20 goals in five Bundesliga matches to date this season leads to this total being set a little higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under 2.75 goals (10*). |
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10-20-20 | Sevilla +0.5 v. Chelsea | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Champions League Match of the Month. My selection is on Sevilla +0.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. I'll take a strong position with Sevilla catching a half-goal against Chelsea in Champions League action on Tuesday. While the Spanish side is coming off a tough 1-0 loss to Granada in La Liga action and has gone winless in consecutive matches, I expect it will be up to the challenge against an opponent that draws plenty of motivation here. Chelsea is coming off a disappointing result of its own on Saturday - settling for a 3-3 draw against Southampton. I feel that Chelsea's aggressive style may open it up for some fruitful counter-attacks from Sevilla here and feel we're getting a bargain price to grab the insurance half-goal. Take Sevilla +0.5 goals (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with North Carolina in its double-digit victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday and I'll back the Tar Heels again this week as they head out on the road to face 1-3 Florida State. The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 college football season but it has gone largely unnoticed by most casual observers. The folks that matter have taken notice, however, giving North Carolina a lofty top-10 ranking. I look for the Tar Heels to live up to expectations for another week. Perhaps some bettors were put off by the Heels in their narrow four-point win as a two-touchdown favorite against Boston College two weeks ago - their only road game so far this season. UNC was clearly almost caught flat-footed in that contest but won't be caught off guard against a storied Florida State program here on Saturday. I don't believe the Seminoles have the personnel to keep up with the Tar Heels for four quarters. We saw UNC take Virginia Tech far away from its gameplan last Saturday and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over BYU at 9:30 pm et on Friday. BYU remains undefeated on the season but after laying two touchdowns or more in three consecutive layups against inferior opposition, it will face a tough test on the road against Houston on Friday. With Houston having played just once it's not easy to for the oddsmakers to set an accurate line for this one and I feel they've missed the mark. QB Clayton Tune wasn't at his best in last week's rout of Tulane, but still managed to throw a pair of touchdown passes and run for another while amassing over 300 yards through the air. BYU certainly looked flat in last week's narrow 27-20 win over Texas-San Antonio. The Cougars will be taking a considerable step up in class here and I look for them to fall short of the mark in terms of the pointspread. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. This is by all accounts the Dodgers last stand as they try to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the NLCS on Wednesday night. Los Angeles certainly showed plenty of fight late in last night's game - a tough 8-7 loss - and I look some carry-over from that performance here. If there's a Braves starter they can get to it's Kyle Wright, who takes the ball today. Wright pitched well in a spot start against the Marlins last round but he'll face a tougher challenge here. Note that he lasted at least six innings in just four of eight regular season starts and was tagged for at least four earned runs in three of those outings. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has held his own in two postseason starts, allowing just four hits and no earned runs while fanning 11 and walking just one in eight innings of work. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers -5 v. Heat | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. Game 5 on Friday night had very much the look of a 'last stand' of sorts from Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. Left exhausted at the end of that thrilling affair, I'm not convinced the Heat can keep pace with the Lakers for four quarters on Sunday night. Lebron James' critics have once again come out of the woodwork following that missed opportunity to close this series out in Game 5 - despite his 40-point, 13-rebound performance. I certainly expect another positive response from Lebron (and perhaps more importantly, his supporting cast) here. The Lakers have essentially controlled this series from the jump and I'm not going to knock them for slipping up in their first shot at closing out the series on Friday. Miami has shown plenty of resiliency throughout these playoffs and has proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out'. However, now we're dealing with a very reasonable price to back what is sure to be a determined Lakers squad eager to bring an end to 'bubble life' and deliver the Larry O'Brien trophy back to Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -12 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon as they aim to remain undefeated in SEC play. While Tennessee checks in with an identical 2-0 record to that of Georgia, the Vols wins have come against the likes of South Carolina and Missouri. They'll be taking a major step up in class in this one. Georgia hasn't allowed a touchdown since the first five minutes of its season-opener against Arkansas two weeks ago. After struggling to get going in that contest, we saw the Bulldogs offense show signs of cohesion in last Saturday's 27-6 rout of Auburn. While there's certainly a look-ahead involved here as Georgia will travel to face Alabama next week, I believe that has been more than factored into this line. Look for the 'Dawgs defense to set the tone early and for their offense to ultimately come up with enough big play to put the game away late. Take Georgia (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-20 | Marlins +182 v. Braves | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB NLDS Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami over Atlanta at 2:08 pm et on Tuesday. I will gladly take the value being offered with the underdog Marlins on Tuesday afternoon. Miami has been undervalued all season. The Marlins certainly enter the NLDS with a real 'no one believes in us' vibe if there is such a thing. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami in Game 1. He was masterful in his Wild Card round start against the Cubs and has now worked at least six innings in six straight starts going back to the regular season. You would have to go back to August 30th to find the last time Alcantara gave up more than three earned runs in a start. Max Fried will counter for Atlanta. He was on point in his Wild Card round start against the Reds but let's face it, Cincinnati just didn't bring its bats to that series. Note that prior to that start, Fried hadn't worked beyond the fifth inning in any of his last four starts. The last time he faced the Marlins he worked just an inning and gave up three hits and two earned runs on September 23rd. Take Miami (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida -21 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This game has blowout written all over it as Central Florida looks to move to 3-0 on the season. The Knights haven't been particularly sharp, or not as sharp as they'd like to be, on the defensive side of the football but they draw a terrific 'get right' matchup here. Tulsa has played just one game so far this season, falling in a very low-scoring affair against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Credit the Golden Hurricane for keeping the Cowboys offense at bay in that contest but if their offensive performance (minus RB Shamari Brooks) was any indication, they could be in for a long year. Tulsa actually upset Central Florida by a 34-31 last season so revenge will be on the minds of the Knights here. UCF already appears to be in midseason form offensively after routing East Carolina last Saturday. QB Dillon Gabriel has been extremely efficient and consistent through two games, passing for 825 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. I don't need to tell you that the Knights offense is absolutely loaded and should run wild against a very beatable Tulsa defense here. Without Brooks in the backfield I just don't see how the Golden Hurricane keep within arm's reach for four quarters on Saturday. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over SMU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Since Memphis last played back on September 5th, SMU has played a pair of games, winning in blowout fashion against North Texas and Stephen F. Austin (scoring a whopping 115 points in the process). Most bettors have short memories so it's easy to understand why the idle Tigers are laying only a couple of points in this matchup. I certainly consider Memphis to be the superior team. Note that the Tigers season-opening win came over an Arkansas State squad that went on to defeat Kansas State on the road the very next week. That win looks a lot better now than it did in early September. I'm confident the Tigers will be able to shake off the rust and I believe they'll benefit from facing a familiar opponent in SMU here. Note that Memphis recorded a wild 54-48 win over SMU in the most recent meeting between the schools last November. I'm concerned about the SMU defense in this one after it allowed 59 points in its two previous games against FBS opponents this season. An experienced Memphis offense is capable of scoring at will in this game and I expect the Tigers defense to be flying all over the field after nearly a month off. Take Memphis (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Friday. This total is going the wrong way in my opinion following an 'under' result in Game 1. Keep in mind, prior to that relatively low-scoring series-opening result, seven straight games involving these two teams (in the Conference Finals) had gone 'over' the total we're dealing with here in Game 2. The Heat will likely be undermanned in this one with Bam Adebayo dealing with a neck strain. His absence shouldn't be underestimated as he was named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team just last month. I do think we'll see the Heat punch back after their no-show in Game 1, although the lopsided spread would seem to indicate otherwise. In fact, neither team performed quite up to standards offensively in the series-opener - yet the final score still nearly eclipsed the total. Even the Lakers have room for impnrovement offensively. I expect a different story to unfold here on Friday night and we're being offered a very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego over St. Louis at 7:08 pm et on Thursday. The Padres fell short in the opener of this series yesterday - a game that marked their long-awaited return to the MLB postseason. Perhaps it should have been expected that they would experience some nerves and that certainly appeared to be the case early on as they fell behind by four runs before they even had a chance to bat. Over the game's final eight innings the Padres played the Cards even and I expect them to get over the hump and even up this series with a victory on Thursday. Zach Davies was terrific during the regular season, posting a career-high 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings while also issuing his lowest walks per nine innings since the 2016 campaign. His 1.07 WHIP was also a career-low, as was his 2.73 ERA. While we are talking about a relatively small sample size, those numbers are still worth noting. Cards starter Adam Wainwright held up pretty well as he winds down a long, storied big league career. With that being said, he posted his lowest strikeouts per nine innings in three years and also matched a career-high for home runs allowed per nine innings. It's been somewhat of a 'Cinderella' season for the Padres and I don't expect it to end today. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -183 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 5 pm et on Tuesday. If the Jays are going to steal a game in this series it's going to be with Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, not Matt Shoemaker. The Jays made the interesting choice to name Shoemaker their Game 1 starter. I suppose it doesn't really matter all that much in a three-game series but I would have thought they would want to put their best foot forward in the series-opener. Shoemaker enjoyed a fine bounce-back season but he'll have a tough time keeping the A.L.-leading Rays at bay in this one. Rays starter Blake Snell enjoyed another fine season, recording at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings for a third straight campaign while giving up fewer hits and walks per nine innings compared to a year ago. I believe Tampa Bay should be laying an even steeper price here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -170 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore (moneyline) over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not often I release plays on the moneyline, but here I believe it is warranted. I actually expect this price to become more favorable as kickoff approaches on Monday as we should see some money come in on the underdog Chiefs - a rare opportunity to back Kansas City at a plus-money return. I'll go the other way as I'm confident the Ravens will 'hold serve' in this their third meeting with the Chiefs over the last 2+ seasons. The Chiefs took the two previous matchups but both of those were played in Kansas City. The two victories came by a combined eight points. Note that the Ravens managed to score 52 points in those two losses and arguably have an even more cohesive offensive unit here in 2020. There's not a lot to say that hasn't already been said when it comes to the Chiefs offense. They're the defending Super Bowl champions for a reason. However, this will obviously be their toughest test of the young season to date as they face an absolutely loaded Ravens defense. In fact, you could argue that Baltimore's defense has been built to beat the likes of Kansas City. Here, I look for that 'D' to come up with enough big plays to ultimately hold off Patrick Mahomes and the mighty Chiefs. Take Baltimore moneyline (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. When you think Titans and Vikings the first thing that comes to mind might not be 'shootout' but I believe that's precisely what we're in for on Sunday afternoon. It's desperation time for the Vikings after suffering back-to-back beatdowns at the hands of the Packers and Colts. The good news is this matchup could play right into their struggling offense's hands - or more specifically the legs of RB Dalvin Cook. The Titans have had a tough time stopping the run in the early going this season, allowing a whopping 5.15 yards per rush to enemy backs. Here, we can expect them to have their hands full stopping Cook, while also missing some key cogs in their secondary, improving the chances of WR Adam Thielen going off. On the flip side, the injury-plagued Vikings defense isn't likely to slow an underrated Titans offense. Without DE Danielle Hunter the Vikes haven't shown any semblance of a pass rush and a clean pocket should serve Ryan Tannehill well in this one. Meanwhile, RB Derrick Henry should find plenty of room to run against a Vikes front that will be without LB Anthony Barr. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-20 | Army v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Army at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Bearcats as they host an Army squad that has come roaring out of the gates, but against inferior opposition. Let's keep things in perspective. The Black Knights are a perfect 2-0 and have blown out each of their first two opponents but their schedule has afforded them very winnable matchups against Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana-Monroe. Things get an awful lot tougher this week as they hit the road for the first time to face an underrated Cincinnati squad that might be the second-best team in the AAC (behind UCF). Army has a national top-25 ranking entering this contest which may lead some bettors to back it with the generous helping of points but I expect this one to get away from the Black Knights. Their offense has been humming but there will be some bumps in the road and this is a tough matchup against an experienced and talented Cincinnati defense. The real key in this contest should be the Bearcats offense which has the tools to dominate a good but not great Army defense. Behind a big performance from QB Desmond Ridder as well as a loaded backfield, look for the Bearcats to roll. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and UTSA at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at the Alamodome on Friday night as I don't expect a shootout between the Blue Raiders and Roadrunners. Middle Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, scoring a grand total of 14 points in the process. While this is certainly the Blue Raiders most favorable matchup to date, I'm still not convinced we'll see their offense get rolling. Note that in last week's 47-14 rout at the hands of Troy they scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was completely out of hand with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. UTSA won a wild 51-48 overtime game against Texas State in its season-opener but reverted to low-scoring form in last week's 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. In that win, the Roadrunners didn't score a touchdown until two minutes into the second quarter. Impressively, their defense gave up just a single touchdown, that coming in the dying seconds of the second quarter. The last meeting between these two teams reached 70 total points but that was back in 2016. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Monday. While I did like the Stars to win this series at the outset, and my opinion certainly hasn't changed following Game 1, I do look for the Lightning to even things up at a game apiece on Monday night. As I've been saying for quite some time now, at some point you have to figure we see some cracks in Stars G Anton Khudobin's armor. He's played a ton of hockey in these playoffs, and has faced a boatload of shots. That was no different in the series opener as the Lightning poured it on (as usual) in the third period. Look for Tampa Bay to do a much better job of converting on its opportunities here in Game 2. The price is right to back the Bolts. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. First off, it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 18-1-1 ATS in the Chiefs last 20 regular season games. Here, I certainly expect to see the Chiefs prevail and with that being said, I'm confident they can cover the somewhat lofty number. While the Chargers have shown the ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in previous meetings, I'm not sure they're going to have any answers for the Chiefs ground game led by super rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I'm also not convinced Los Angeles will be able to finish enough drives with 7's on the board against a still-underrated Chiefs defense that's strength lies in its pass rush. Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without their o-line anchor in center Mike Pouncey for this one. That opens the door for the Chiefs front seven to get into the backfield with consistency in this one. The Chargers are in a state of change offensively going from immobile QB Phillip Rivers to the agile Tyrod Taylor. As we saw last Sunday, this is a unit that will likely go through some growing pains in the early going and I don't see this as an ideal matchup for them to move to 2-0 on the campaign. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's no question we're dealing with a high posted total in this one but it's high for a reason. I'm expecting a shootout. The Falcons draw a favorable matchup here, at least as far as their offense goes. The Cowboys only gave up 20 points in last week's loss to the Rams but the damage could have been much worse. Dallas is now even more undermanned after losing elite LB Leighton Vander Esch. Their secondary is a weak point, one that the Falcons should be able to take full advantage of. Even against a tough Seahawks pass defense last week, Falcons WR Julio Jones came up with 150+ yards receiving. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott was under duress for much of the game against the Rams last week. We should see a different story unfold here, however, as the Falcons pass rush. While Atlanta has been tough against the run in recent years, it has had little success stopping the pass or containing opposing quarterbacks that can scramble. That plays right into the hands of Prescott and the up-tempo Cowboys offense, which should feast in its home-opener. After a relatively quiet opening week, look for the ultra-talented Dallas receiving corps to put up big numbers here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -8 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers blew an excellent opportunity to earn a much-needed opening week win last Sunday against the Raiders (given their tough early season schedule they could be staring down an awful start). Here, I look for them to get blown out at the hands of a hungry Bucs squad. Tampa Bay fell short in last week's showdown with the Saints, largely due to the inept play of its offense. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about the Bucs underrated defense, which held the Saints to just 6.4 yards per play last Sunday, picking up right where it left off following a red hot finish to last season. The Panthers offense obviously revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey but there's reason to believe he could be held in check here after Tampa Bay completely shut him down in both meetings last season. The Bucs offense looked out of sync in Tom Brady's debut last Sunday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot, however, as the Panthers own one of the league's weakest defenses. The Raiders torched the Panthers for 34 points last Sunday. You know your defense has a problem when you're giving up nearly double-digit yards per play against QB Derek Carr. While Bucs WR Chris Godwin could miss this game after entering concussion protocol mid-week, this is very much a receiving corps by committee and I expect Tampa's wealth of pass-catchers to pick up the slack in his possible absence. I don't need to tell you that Tom Brady's motivation level will be sky-high (it always is) after getting somewhat called out by head coach Bruce Arians. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 55 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Miami was fortunate to face a disjointed UAB squad in its season-opener last week, ultimately winning and covering the spread in the process. Here, the Canes will face a much tougher challenge as they hit the road to take on the Louisville Cardinals. The Cards got their season off to a resounding start with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That game wasn't as close as the final score indicated as Louisville jumped ahead 28-7 before halftime and never looked back. While the Miami offense promises to be much better with QB D'Eriq King at the helm this season, it certainly didn't look completely in sync last week. I have Louisville pegged as one of the best teams in the entire nation in this unique 2020 college football campaign and will gladly back it as a short favorite here. Take Louisville (10*). |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off tight, low-scoring series' and as a result we're dealing with a relatively low posted total on Saturday. I believe we'll see this series get off to a high-scoring start, and it may not be long before 5.5's are back on the board. While I have a lot of respect for both goaltenders in this series, there's also no question that they've played a tremendous amount of hockey over the last seven weeks or so. At some point you have to feel that they're going to suffer a bit of a lapse, even if it's brief. Meanwhile, both squads are loaded with offensive talent. We've also seen both teams show a knack for coming up with clutch goals and performances from their star players. I'm confident the losing side gets at least two goals in this contest, setting us up well with a play on the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +17 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia State plus the points over UL-Lafayette at 12 noon et on Saturday. The Ragin' Cajuns of UL-Lafayette are coming off a big upset win over Iowa State last Saturday so it's not surprising that they're laying such a big number in their Sun Belt opener this week. I believe the number will prove too high. Georgia State is no pushover. The Panthers reached a Bowl game with a 7-6 overall record last season, making significant progress relatively early in their FBS career. Georgia State returns plenty of talent on both sides of the football - particularly when it comes to defense, where it will obviously need to be stout against an experienced and explosive Ragin' Cajuns offense. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has a terrific stable of wide receivers to stretch the field against a beatable Lafayette defense. Look for Georgia State to stay within arm's reach all afternoon long. Take Georgia State (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-20 | Steelers -5.5 v. Giants | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New York at 7:15 pm et on Monday. This really is a tough opening week matchup for the Giants as they try to turn the page on what has been a tough era of G-Men football. The Steelers are reloaded for another run with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. All indications are that his arm is back at full strength as he looks to get the Pittsburgh offense back on track following a tumultuous 2019 campaign. Roethlisberger should feast on a Giants pass defense that was absolutely horrendous last season and doesn't figure to improve here in 2020. Even if Big Ben doesn't dominate, the Steelers should enjoy plenty of success on the ground against a New York defense that gave up just shy of 150 rush yards per game last season. There were signs of life in the Giants offense with rookie Daniel Jones at the helm last season. Of course, it helps that he has RB Saquon Barkley in the backfield but I question how much running room he'll find against the teeth of the Steelers defense. Meanwhile, the G-Men boast a below average group of wide receivers that won't instill much fear at all in the Steelers secondary. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm more than happy to grab the points with an underrated Bengals team hosting an overrated Chargers squad on Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers have any business traveling across the country and being favored in this matchup. With issues on their offensive line and an unproven ground attack (Austin Ekeler is a terrific RB but more of a pass-catcher than runner), I believe they'll have trouble chewing up clock and ultimately putting this game to bed. It remains to be seen how effective Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be in his NFL debut against a tough defense but I'm confident he can do just enough (and not make the critical game-changing mistakes) to lead the Bengals to victory. I don't believe the Chargers bring any sort of intimidation factor to the table here, especially after losing one of their best defensive players in SS Derwin James to injury. The Chargers are still absolutely loaded with talent on defense but in today's NFL, that's rarely enough. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team OVER 42 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting this to be one of the uglier games on the Week 1 slate, but I'm not so easily convinced. I actually believe we'll see some offensive fireworks as these two familiar NFC East foes square off in Washington. Philadelphia is going to have to play fast on offense in an effort to circumvent its own offensive line issues against Washington's tremendous pass rush. The good news for the Eagles is that Washington's defensive back-end is average at best and I believe the opportunity will be there for Philadelphia's underrated pass-catching corps to come up with some big plays downfield. On the flip side, I'm higher on the Washington offense than most. QB Dwayne Haskins is poised to take a step forward after showing plenty of improvement down the stretch last year. While its WR corps isn't deep, it has a bonafide gamebreaker in Terry McLaurin. And don't sleep on RB Antonio Gibson making something out of nothing in the backfield. The Eagles may be known for their tough defense but they take a hit this year with a number of key cogs no longer in uniform, including Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham. Take the over (10*). |
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09-12-20 | UL-Monroe +21.5 v. Army | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Louisiana-Monroe plus the points over Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Louisiana-Monroe at it heads to West Point to take on Army on Saturday afternoon. The Black Knights have the benefit of having already worked out the early season kinks in a stunning 42-0 blowout win over Middle Tennessee last week. Keep in mind, the Black Knights were favored by just north of a field goal in that game. They overachieved in that contest as the Blue Raiders had absolutely no answer to Army's triple-option offense. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Don't count on the Black Knights running roughshod against a Warhawks defense that has plenty of talent and experience in the second level. On the flip side, the Army defense was never really tested in last week's game as it jumped ahead early and never looked back. The Black Knights were able to force three turnovers in that victory but I look for Louisiana-Monroe to do a better job of taking care of the football here. Look for the Warhawks to play smart with an inexperienced quarterback but serviceable ground attack against an Army defense that shouldn't generate much pressure in the backfield. Army should get the win here, but I simply feel it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Louisiana-Monroe (10*). |
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09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most have this ACC opener pegged as a wild shootout between two offensive-minded teams in Syracuse and North Carolina. I feel the total has simply been set too high. The Orange certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to improve on last year's 5-7 squad that won just two games in ACC play. Their offensive line wasn't good and doesn't figure to be a whole lot better this year. The jury is still out on QB Tommy DeVito, who has shown flashes of brilliance but a real lack of consistency, albeit under duress most of the time. I do expect Syracuse to do a better job of keeping DeVito upright by leaning a little more on the ground game and the quick, short passing attack. The Tar Heels have a better defense than advertised as far as I'm concerned but they do have pass-funnel tendencies, particularly underneath, which could help keep the clock moving in this one. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Orange offense end many drives with 7's on the board as the Heels have an opportunistic defense that has the ability to tighten up in their own end of the field. The North Carolina offense is loaded. The strength of the offense is obviously their passing game with future NFL prospect QB Sam Howell and a talented group of wide receivers. The good news for Syracuse is that the strength of its defense is in the secondary where it boasts an experienced, underrated group. Like the Heels defense, the Orange secondary has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers. I believe we'll see the Orange do just enough to keep the Heels big play ability at bay for stretches. With a sky-high total, I'll call for enough stalled drives to keep this one 'under' the number. Take the under (10*). |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -128 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston (moneyline) over Toronto at 9 pm et on Friday. I picked the Celtics to win this series at the onset and I won't waver from that position here in Game 7. Give the defending champion Raptors credit, they've battled all the way back in this series but what else would you expect? There was no way a team as talented, experienced and well-coached as the Raptors were going to roll over. With that being said, the Raps are fortunate to have forced a Game 7 with a miracle buzzer beater leading to one win and another coming by way of double overtime. This is a huge game for Celtics head coach Brad Stevens as he needs to respond to Nick Nurse's adjustments and get his team over the hump. Desperation has shifted to the Celtics now and I look for their stars to respond accordingly. Take Boston moneyline (10*). |
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09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Miami offense was absolutely dreadful a year ago, but perhaps that should have been expected (we noted the Canes offense would likely struggle right out of the gates in a season-opening play on the 'under' against Florida). We should see a different story unfold in 2020, however. QB D'Eriq King gives the Canes a bonafide veteran leader and star on offense. While the cupboard has been cleaned out in terms of the wide receiving corps, it's by no means bare. The Canes are loaded with speed all over the field on offense and King should have no trouble building a solid rapport with terrific TE Brevin Jordan. UAB's defense was terrific stat-wise last season, but that's playing most of its games against C-USA opponents. On the flip side, the Miami defense loses a number of key cogs after a strong 2019 campaign. I'm higher on the UAB offense than most. While the Blazers 45-point outburst last week came against an FCS squad in Central Arkansas, I saw plenty of positives, namely the performance of RB Spencer Brown, who ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries. He's in line for a big bounce-back season after playing hurt much of last year. In WR Austin Watkins Jr., the Blazers have a home run threat veteran QB Tyler Johnston can bank on as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series was a complete landslide as the Lightning's top line absolutely went off and helped them roll to an 8-2 victory. Here, I expect a much different type of game to play out. It's important to realize that it was just one game. The Islanders are a well-coached team that has really come together during this playoff run and are certainly capable of bouncing back. With that being said, it's tough to stand in the way of the Lightning right now, given they're in top form having won five games in a row. I also have a lot of respect for Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy who is quite simply one of the best goalies in the world right now. With all of that being said, I look for the Isles to make the necessary adjustments and do a much better job of containing Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point in particular on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay knows this isn't going to be a cakewalk and won't let down its guard defensively after the Game 1 blowout win. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 210 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't had much of a prayer of slowing down the Celtics multi-dimensional offensive attack during this series and as a result they're facing the prospect of elimination on Wednesday night. I don't expect the Raps to suddenly come up with an answer for the four-headed monster of Brown, Tatum, Walker and Smart on Wednesday. With that being said, I also don't expect to see Siakam and Lowry combine to make a paltry eight shots again either. The Raptors are the defending champions and as such, I don't think we'll see them go away quietly. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this series so far, and I believe it will prove far too low on Wednesday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Vegas simply didn't show up ready to play in the opener of this series on Sunday night. Maybe it was due to the Knights breathing a sigh of relief after a hard-fought series against an upstart Canucks squad. Maybe Vegas was caught reading a bit of its own press as it prepared to face the Stars, who few expected to reach this stage of the playoffs. Either way, the Knights did wake up in the third period of Game 1, outshooting Dallas by a 15-2 margin. Despite the 1-0 loss, I do think Vegas carries some confidence into Game 2 and expect to see one of its best performances in the playoffs to date. While I do have a lot of respect for Rick Bowness and the Stars (having picked them to beat the Avalanche in Game 7 last round), I look for them to fall short here. Take Vegas (10*). |
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09-04-20 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Rockies plus the insurance run on Friday night in Los Angeles. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for Colorado. He has quietly gotten off to a fine start this season. His strikeouts per nine innings are up slightly while his walks are way down, all the way to 1.5 per nine innings compared to 4.1 a year ago. His home runs and hits allowed have also dropped. Dodgers starter Dustin May has posted a solid ERA and WHIP but a deeper look shows that he has regressed slightly. His strikeouts per nine innings are down from 8.3 a year ago to 5.9 this season. His walks have jumped from 1.3 to 2.3. He's also allowing 1.0 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.5 last season. Entering last night's action the Rockies had crept into T10th in runs per game and T7th in team batting average. I look for them to hang around in this one. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*). |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really think this is a blowout in the making as the weary Nuggets take on the Clippers just one day removed from outlasting the Jazz in what was an opening round war of attrition. Los Angeles is well-rested, and likely to keep rolling after rounding into form in the latter stages of the first round. The Clips didn't exactly come roaring out of the gates here in the "bubble" but they didn't have to. Here, I look for them to get off to a blazing start to the second round as they do a far better job of containing Jokic and Murray than the Jazz did in the Nuggets last series. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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