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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-16 | Texans +6.5 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. |
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10-08-16 | Air Force v. Wyoming +12 | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
I like the spot, matchup and Wyoming's pedigree against Air Force. The Cowboys have covered the past seven times versus Air Force. |
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10-07-16 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Ottawa | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
Forget the records here that show Ottawa leading the Eastern Division with a 6-6 record and Saskatchewan last in the Western Division at 3-10. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 56 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better. |
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10-02-16 | Broncos -3 v. Bucs | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -120 | 122 h 31 m | Show |
Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. |
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10-01-16 | Buffalo +19 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Boston College has Clemson on deck so a full, all-out effort can't be a natural given. Chances are the Eagles could let up if building a safe lead. Buffalo has gotten better since turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has yet to be sacked. The Bulls rank No. 2 in pass defense. Boston College will attack via the ground, which is a plus for a big underdog. |
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10-01-16 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. Syracuse | 50-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 12 m | Show | |
Now that Notre Dame has hit rock bottom expect a strong performance here against a weak defense. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. |
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09-27-16 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Sitting one game behind the Giants for the second wild-card spot in the National League, the Cardinals desperately need to win this home game. The Reds embarrassed the Cardinals, 15-2, on Monday night. |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates. |
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09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | 3-34 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. |
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09-25-16 | Browns v. Dolphins -10 | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 139 h 26 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front. The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 109 h 50 m | Show |
I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. |
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09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -19.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 127 h 19 m | Show | |
Take good early value by playing this line now as I see it climbing past three touchdowns. New Mexico State can't keep up with Troy. The Aggies got buried by a score of 52-7 last year by the Trojans - and that was in Las Cruces. |
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09-24-16 | Duke v. Notre Dame -20 | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
People are focusing on Notre Dame having already lost twice. But Duke is way down this season with a terrible loss to Wake Forest and then Northwestern. The Blue Devils aren't 100 percent healthy on defense and lack the playmakers to keep up with a frustrated Irish squad in need of a wipeout performance. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh +7 v. North Carolina | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 54 h 31 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has triple revenge having lost the past three years to North Carolina, never by more than seven points during this span. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge. |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -125 | 154 h 58 m | Show |
This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 110 h 21 m | Show |
I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher. Â |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State +8 v. Notre Dame | 36-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show | |
I like Mark Dantonio in this underdog role. The spot is good, too, for the Spartans. |
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09-17-16 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -20 | 42-62 | Push | 0 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
New Mexico State is a bottom-three Sun Belt team. Kentucky is an SEC school with far better athletes. New Mexico State has never beaten an SEC team in 19 tries. |
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09-16-16 | Montreal v. Hamilton -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
These two teams met two months ago and Hamilton buried Montreal, 31-7, despite not playing an "A" game, or having quarterback Zach Collaros. |
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09-11-16 | Lions +3.5 v. Colts | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 65 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 8 m | Show |
Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. |
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09-11-16 | Bears +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 1078 h 51 m | Show |
I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. |
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09-10-16 | Washington State +10.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. |
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09-10-16 | Saskatchewan +10.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 19 m | Show |
Saskatchewan isn't going anywhere at 1-9. The Roughriders' season is essentially finished - except for this game. This is going to be their Super Bowl. |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest v. Duke -4.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -115 | 42 h 45 m | Show | |
The spread doesn't reflect the vast difference between these two teams. Not to mention that Duke's David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches as the Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games. |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | 10-54 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 44 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is one of the great party schools and I can see the Badgers still celebrating their opening week upset victory against LSU, the Badgers' biggest win over a higher-ranked opponent since 2010 when they knocked off top-ranked Ohio State.
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09-08-16 | Panthers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 276 h 26 m | Show |
I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver. |
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09-05-16 | Braves v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Nationals return home where they have beaten the Braves 21 of the past 26 times. |
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09-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. |
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09-03-16 | LSU -9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 4 m | Show |
First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. |
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09-03-16 | South Alabama +28 v. Mississippi State | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 111 h 52 m | Show | |
South Alabama is well-coached and came close to qualifying for a bowl for a second consecutive season. One of their victories last season came on the road as 17 1/2-point 'dogs to San Diego State. Meeting an SEC foe is huge for South Alabama. The Jaguars are going to be far more motivated for this matchup than Mississippi State, which has a home game against South Carolina next week and then plays at LSU the following week. |
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09-03-16 | Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Louisiana Lafayette is in bounce back mode. Prior to last season, the Ragin Cajuns had won nine games four consecutive seasons. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. |
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09-01-16 | Rams +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 27 m | Show |
The last week of preseason is a crapshoot. I usually don't get involved. But I can't see the Vikings being prepared at all to play after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffer serious injuries at practice on Tuesday. That had to be devastating for the team. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has to be careful how much he plays veteran Shaun Hill in this game now because Hill is the new Vikings starting quarterback. This means most of the quarterback playing time in this game going to undrafted free agent  Joel Stave and Brad Sorensen, who was just cut by the team before Bridgewater went down. Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been treating the preseason more serious than other coaches trying to build up momentum and optimism for the Rams in their first year since returning to Los Angeles. The Rams hold a quarterback edge with Case Keenum, Jared Goff and Sean Mannion. All three of those are much better than Stave. |
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08-28-16 | Hamilton +4.5 v. Calgary | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode. |
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08-26-16 | Steelers v. Saints -3 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans are 0-2 in preseason. |
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08-26-16 | Winnipeg +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 98 h 8 m | Show |
Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. |
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08-25-16 | Angels v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Jered Weaver and J.A. Happ are both 33. But that's where the similarity ends.No pitcher has more wins than Happ, who is 17-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Happ has turned his career around to where he's a serious Cy Young candidate. Weaver, on the other hand, has lost his fastball and is on a continuing decline. |
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08-16-16 | Dodgers v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
If given 1 1/2 runs, the Phillies would be 13-3 in their last 16 games. They still hold playoff hopes and have won their past four games. |
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08-14-16 | Texans +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
These two teams just had a joint practice on Friday and the Texans looked good during it reinvigorated from a day off on Wednesday and by the less humid weather than they are used to. |
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08-12-16 | Browns +3 v. Packers | Top | 11-17 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
The Packers have lost and failed to cover in five of their last six preseason openers. Mike McCarthy doesn't care about these preseason openers. Hue Jackson does in his Browns coaching debut. |
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08-11-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
They are in different conferences, but the Saints will have great familiarity with the Patriots since the teams have been jointly practicing. That's a big plus when taking points in a preseason game. The two teams met last preseason and New Orleans jumped out to a 15-0 lead before losing by two points. |
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08-06-16 | Edmonton +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. |
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07-31-16 | Toronto +10.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto. |
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07-29-16 | BC +5 v. Calgary | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 58 h 49 m | Show |
Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. |
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07-25-16 | Montreal +7 v. Toronto | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -135 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. |
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07-23-16 | Padres v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. |
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07-21-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. |
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07-19-16 | Twins +1.5 v. Tigers | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
It's easy to rip the Twins. Sure they've been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But they have won six of their last 10 and if given 1 1/2 runs would be 15-4 in their last 19 games. |
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07-09-16 | Padres +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. |
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07-08-16 | Saskatchewan +11 v. Edmonton | Top | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 2 m | Show |
This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent. |
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07-08-16 | Braves v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. |
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07-01-16 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 78 h 15 m | Show |
Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. |
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06-29-16 | Phillies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games. |
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06-18-16 | Reds v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the Astros with everything lining up. But rather than lay such hefty juice, going the run line route makes sense. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
It's my belief the Warriors are the superior team here when they have Draymond Green. He returns to action for this Game 6. |
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06-15-16 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 124 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
As great as Clayton Kershaw is, his record would be just 6-6 in his last 12 starts if the Dodgers were minus 1 1/2 runs. If there is one team that has been competitive against Kershaw it's the Diamondbacks. Kershaw is 11-8 against them with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw is 1-6 during his last seven starts at Chase Field. |
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06-07-16 | Cubs v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 111 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Kyle Hendricks hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-3 with a 4.37 road ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home. This also is the Phillies' third look already at Hendricks having just faced him two starts ago. |
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05-27-16 | Twins v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The Twins are even worse than thought. They are 5-20 in their last 25 games, owners of the worst road record in the American League at 4-19. They have lost the past seven times following an off day. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses. Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers. Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
 OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +13 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points. |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 58 m | Show |
I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong.Â
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05-10-16 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. |
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05-01-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -8 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. |
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04-29-16 | Clippers +10 v. Blazers | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams. |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.
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04-25-16 | Mavs +14.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan.Â
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04-24-16 | Warriors -8 v. Rockets | Top | 121-94 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets. The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. |
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04-22-16 | Spurs -11.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-87 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever.Â
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04-17-16 | Pistons +11 v. Cavs | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. |
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04-16-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness.Â
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04-13-16 | Spurs v. Mavs -4.5 | 96-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
The Spurs have no incentive to win here and will be holding out their main players, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. |
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04-11-16 | Kings v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-101 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. |
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04-06-16 | Nets +15 v. Wizards | Top | 103-121 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. |
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04-03-16 | Blazers v. Warriors -12 | Top | 111-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February. |
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03-31-16 | Celtics v. Blazers -3 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. |
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03-30-16 | Warriors -5 v. Jazz | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State. |
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03-29-16 | Oakland -6.5 v. E Tennessee State | Top | 104-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. |
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03-28-16 | Lakers +14 v. Jazz | 75-123 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
So when did the Utah Jazz turn into the Golden State Warriors? I haven't seen the Jazz laying this many points since the days of John Stockton and Karl Malone. |
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03-27-16 | Wizards -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. |
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03-26-16 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Paul George is iffy, but even if it doesn't play I like the Pacers to cover this number against the Nets. Brooklyn still could be in the clouds after upsetting the Cavaliers two nights ago. |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. |
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03-25-16 | Magic +10 v. Heat | 97-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Early marketplace activity has been on the Heat here, which is understandable since the perception is Miami will be fired-up after an embarrassing 112-88 road loss to the Spurs. The Magic should be up for this game, the last of a four-game road trip, against an in-state rival that has bullied them through the years. Orlando is 10-4 ATS following a defeat. The Magic also are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 games at this spread. |
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03-24-16 | Cavs v. Nets +8 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +6 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days. |
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03-21-16 | Vermont -4.5 v. Seattle University | 73-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
There is a reason why Seattle is a 4 1/2-point home 'dog to Vermont in this CBI Tournament game. The reason is the Redhawks just aren't very good and neither was their WAC conference this season. |
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03-21-16 | Bucks v. Pistons -7 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs. |
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03-20-16 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice. Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court. Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season. Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-20-16 | Clippers -7 v. Pelicans | Top | 105-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites.Â
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