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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-24 | Purdue v. Maryland +6.5 | 67-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season. |
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01-01-24 | Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home. |
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12-31-23 | Chargers +5 v. Broncos | 9-16 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 24 m | Show | |
The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
The Raiders buried the Chargers, 63-21, at home two weeks ago, drawing an opponent that picked that game to quit on their coach. Then last week the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns to upset the Chiefs. That game might have been the Raiders' Super Bowl considering how much they celebrated and how emotional it was for interim coach Antonio Pierce.Â
Pierce is an upgrade on the egregious Josh McDaniels, but he's not in the class of the Colts' Shane Steichen. The oddsmaker has priced this matchup like these two teams are even considering Indy's home-field advantage and an early start time for the Raiders. Yes, those are edges for the Colts. But the Colts also are much better than the Raiders. Thanks to the innovative Steichen, the Colts rank in the top-10 in scoring. They are 5-2 in their last seven games. Jonathan Taylor is back and primed for a big game. Michael Pittman is expected to play, too, after being out last week with a concussion. That gives Gardner Minshew his two best weapons. The Raiders rank 25th in scoring and 29th in total yards. Rookie Aidan O'Connell is in the argument for worst starting quarterback. Josh Jacobs has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable. |
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12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -6 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly. |
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12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points. |
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12-30-23 | Portland State -3.5 v. Idaho | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. |
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12-30-23 | Toledo v. Wyoming -3.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Craig Bohl and Tucker Gleason. That's the simple answer as to why I strongly favor Wyoming to beat Toledo by more than a field goal in this Arizona Bowl.
The highly-popular and successful Bohl is retiring after 42 years coaching, including the last 10 years at Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games during the past seven years. Wyoming played in this same Arizona Bowl last season. Gleason is the backup replacement for Toledo's superstar QB, Dequan Finn. Finn is transferring to Baylor after accounting for 3,220 yards and 29 touchdowns passing and rushing. The Rockets also will be without Peny Boone, their top running back who gained 1,400 rushing and scored 15 touchdowns. He entered the transfer portal. Gleason threw just 21 passes this season. He has completed less than 51 percent of his passes during his college career. Wyoming has a top-50 defense, is well-coached, has good special teams and has a reliable QB in Andrew Peasley, who threw for 1,823 yards and 20 touchdowns with five interceptions. Toledo has failed to cover in its last five bowl games under Jason Candle. |
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12-29-23 | Arizona v. California +14 | 100-81 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener. |
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12-29-23 | Raptors +8 v. Celtics | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort. |
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12-29-23 | Memphis +11 v. Iowa State | Top | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This isn't a great Iowa State team. The Cyclones are 7-5. The best teams they beat were Oklahoma State and Kansas State. Memphis can hang with Iowa State,especially having home field advantage, which they do with the game taking place at the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.  The Tigers are 9-3 and have plenty of bowl experience. Their only defeats came to the two best teams in the American Athletic Conference, SMU and Tulane, and to Missouri. The Tigers lost those games by an average of seven points. Memphis hasn't lost a game by more than 10 points all season.  The Tigers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 39.7 points. Seth Henigan has completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 3,519 yards with a 28-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.  Iowa State may win, but it won't be by double-digits.Â
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12-28-23 | Prairie View A&M v. Texas-San Antonio -2.5 | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games. |
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12-28-23 | Pistons +17 v. Celtics | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof.
The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory. The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup. The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points. |
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12-28-23 | NC State +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here. |
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12-26-23 | Magic -7.5 v. Wizards | 127-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards. |
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12-26-23 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Just because Minnesota is a Big Ten team and Bowling Green is from the Mid-American Conference doesn't mean the Gophers should automatically be the favorite.
But that's what the oddsmaker has done in this Quick Lane Bowl, which is being held at Ford Field in Detroit. Bowling Green is the better team. I'll certainly take points to back that opinion. Minnesota shouldn't even be in a bowl game. The Gophers are 5-7. They are the only non-.500 team to earn a bowl invite. It happened because there were not enough teams that finished 6-6 or better to fill all the bowl slots. So the committee turned to a Big Ten team. Aside from Michigan and Ohio State, it was a down year in the Big Ten. Minnesota is average defensively and horrible on offense. The Gophers' best offensive player might be running back Darius Taylor and he's questionable. It was a terrible year in the Big Ten for quarterbacks. One of the lower tier QB's was Minnesota's Athan Kaliakmanis. He started every game. But Kaliakmanis won't play here because he entered the transfer portal. How good can backup Cole Kramer be if he couldn't dislodge Kaliakmanis at any point this season? I like Bowling Green QB Connor Bazelak much better. He played his best ball down the stretch with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last five games. Bowling Green concluded the regular season winning and covering five of its last six games. Minnesota, by contrast, finished 0-4 SU and ATS. The Falcons have proved they can step up when playing a Power Five team. They upset Georgia Tech, which beat Central Florida, 30-17, in the Gasparilla Bowl this past Friday. Bowling Green also played Michigan and covered in a 31-6 road loss. Minnesota also went up against Michigan. The Gophers were hammered by the Wolverines at home, 52-10. Bowling Green and Minnesota played each other two years ago in Minneapolis. The Falcons won, 14-10. The Falcons are used to this venue. They played in the Quick Lane Bowl last year. The Falcons heavily recruit in Detroit. So this game means a lot to them not just in terms of the prestige of beating a Big Ten team, but also in recruiting. Minnesota, on the other hand, can't be too excited about this opponent nor the venue. The Gophers weren't even thinking about a bowl game when the regular season concluded. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -7 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 31 m | Show | |
These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game. Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs. Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end. |
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12-22-23 | Siena v. Brown -12 | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home. |
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12-21-23 | Saints v. Rams -4 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
I've been looking to fade the Saints and this is the right spot. Both teams are 7-7, but the Rams are much the superior team. LA doesn't hold a huge home field advantage compared to other team's. However, the visiting team playing on Thursday is at a big disadvantage. So I believe this point spread is well short.
The Saints have beaten the Giants and Panthers at home during the last two weeks. Typical because New Orleans has played the easiest schedule. The Rams have drawn one of the more difficult schedules going against the 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bengals, Browns and Ravens, who they lost in overtime on the road two weeks ago. Since Matthew Stafford returned from his finger injury, the Rams have gone 4-1 SU and ATS. Stafford has a 12-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last four games. Kyren Williams has emerged as one of the top running backs in the league averaging 124.3 rushing yards the last four games. Cooper Kupp has come alive, too, catching 16 passes for 226 yards during the last two weeks. The Rams are averaging 33 points during the last four weeks. The Saints' defense is down from past seasons and their offense is mediocre at best. |
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12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home. |
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12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games. |
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12-20-23 | Arkansas State v. Belmont -4 | 70-74 | Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
The last time Arkansas State played on the road was a week ago. The Red Wolves upset Louisville. Impressive yes, but that was only their first road win in six tries. I don't see Arkansas State duplicating that success against Belmont, which is 4-0 at home.
Arkansas State is 4-7. Belmont is 8-4. The Red Hawks are turnover-prone, while the Bruins are extremely efficient in their shooting. They rank 22nd in field goal percentage and 28th in 3-point percentage. |
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12-18-23 | Nets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders +7 v. Rams | 20-28 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -3 | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 123 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season. |
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12-17-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Patriots | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do. |
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12-16-23 | California v. Texas Tech -3 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. |
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12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions -4 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 26 m | Show | |
The Lions' offensive line is back healthy, Jared Goff is at his best in a dome setting and the Broncos have been thriving because of takeaways. I see the Lions playing a clean game here. That would be bad news for Denver. The Lions have far more weapons than the Broncos. Detroit also has played three NFC North Division foes in its last four games. Those teams know the Lions. The Broncos don't. Detroit is 3-0 versus AFC West Division teams this season defeating the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers.  This is Denver's first dome game of the season. It's not a good setting for the Broncos.  The Lions may not be a serious Super Bowl threat, but they are better than they've shown since Thanksgiving.Â
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12-16-23 | UNLV v. St. Mary's -5.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix. |
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12-16-23 | New Mexico State -3.5 v. Fresno State | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs. |
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12-15-23 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +15 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent. |
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12-15-23 | Pistons +16 v. 76ers | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances. |
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12-14-23 | Wolves +2 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Mavericks for nipping the Lakers, 127-125, at home on Tuesday. That was Dallas' fourth consecutive victory. But before getting on the Mavericks' bandwagon take a look at who their other three victories came against during this win streak - Utah, Portland and Memphis. Those three teams are a combined 20-49.
Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA at 17-5. The Timberwolves just had their six-game win streak snapped by the Pelicans, 121-107, at New Orleans three days ago. The Timberwolves are the better team and I want them off a loss with extra preparation time. It's a bonus if the Timberwolves get back Anthony Edwards, who is questionable with a hip pointer. Minnesota does have back Jaden McDaniels, an underrated rotation player. The Mavericks remain without Kyrie Irving. |
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12-14-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 21-63 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. |
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12-13-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -5.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively. |
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12-13-23 | Florida International +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 60-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23. |
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12-12-23 | Cavs +11 v. Celtics | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss. |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again.
This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas. The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games. Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor. |
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12-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons +7 | 131-123 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers. |
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12-11-23 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 13-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 15 m | Show | |
Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers. |
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12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show |
This game sets up very badly for the Jaguars. Not only is warm-weather Jacksonville traveling into cold and bad weather conditions on a short week, but doing it without their first and second string offensive left tackles and most consistent wide receiver, Christian Kirk.  The Jaguars are facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has outscored opponents, 113-61, at home in going 5-1.  If you discount a 28-3 loss to the Ravens, the Browns are giving up an average of 6.6 points in their five other home contests.  Joe Flacco is a huge upgrade on P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
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12-10-23 | Texans v. Jets +3.5 | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston has been a major surprise this season. So has C.J. Stroud, who looks like a lock to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.Â
But this is a clear buy low/sell high situation to take the Jets and go against the Texans. The warm-weather, roof-enclosed Texans are heading into cold and bad weather to face a disappointed Jets team that seems ready to take their season-long frustrations and jealousy out on a beatable opponent such as this. I actually believe Zach Wilson will provide a spark to a Jets offense that encountered one of the worst two-game quarterback stretches of the season with Tim Boyle. I expect a fresh Wilson to be improved after his two-game benching. He has the best running back, Breece Hall, and top wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, on his side in this matchup. The Texans rank 26th in pass defense. Stroud will be without explosive Tank Dell, the Texans' touchdown leader and second-leading receiver. The Jets have the third-best pass defense in the NFL. They haven't allowed a 300-yard passer during their last 30 games. |
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12-10-23 | Boston University v. Wagner -3.5 | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points. |
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12-09-23 | Illinois v. Tennessee -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue. |
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12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season. |
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12-07-23 | Eastern Kentucky +9.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky beat UNC Greensboro, 68-64, at home last season. The Colonels are off to a slow start this season at 3-3 while Greensboro is 6-1. But I'm going to buy low on Eastern Kentucky in the belief this line is inflated too much. Eastern Kentucky isn't nearly double-digits worse than the Spartans, whose defense can be dented.Â
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12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk. |
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12-05-23 | Cleveland State v. St. Mary's -14.5 | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State. |
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12-05-23 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8. |
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12-04-23 | Blues v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on the Golden Knights. Las Vegas is back on track posting consecutive 4-1 victories against the Canucks this past Thursday and Capitals two days ago. |
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12-04-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas. |
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12-03-23 | 49ers -3 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game. |
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12-03-23 | Browns +4 v. Rams | 19-36 | Loss | -120 | 63 h 38 m | Show | |
The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense. |
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12-03-23 | Creighton -3.5 v. Nebraska | 89-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
I am more impressed with Creighton's 6-1 start than Nebraska's 7-0 beginning. So is the oddsmaker. He's installed the Bluejays as a road favorite. It's the correct call. Creighton is the superior team. |
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12-02-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -8.5 | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Unbeaten 5-0 Nevada failed to cover its last game after giving up 48 second-half points to Montana in a 77-66 home win this past Wednesday. Wolf Pack coach Steve Alford wasn't happy about that. So I see the Wolf Pack being very focused for this matchup. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | Top | 26-0 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 37 m | Show |
This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines. |
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12-01-23 | Wizards +11 v. Magic | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington. |
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12-01-23 | Rider v. Siena +3.5 | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tips off today with Rider visiting Siena. Rider was the preseason pick to win the MAAC this season. |
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11-30-23 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 35-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas. |
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11-30-23 | UL - Lafayette +4 v. Samford | 65-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Both Louisiana Lafayette and Samford are 5-2. I have Louisiana Lafayette as the superior team so I'm on the Ragin' Cajuns as an underdog. |
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11-30-23 | Pistons +14 v. Knicks | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy. |
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11-29-23 | Davidson +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 85-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
I'm buying low here on Davidson after the Wildcats were slaughtered by Saint Mary's, 89-55, five days ago. Before that game, Davidson had not lost by more than three points all season. |
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11-29-23 | Suns -3 v. Raptors | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number. |
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11-27-23 | North Dakota State +7.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
North Dakota State is a strong 3-point shooting team ranking 64th. The Bisons are in a good situational spot here.Â
They draw San Jose State in the Spartans' first game since returning from the Virgin Islands. San Jose State went 2-1 in the Paradise Jam Tournament there. The Spartans were favored in all three of their games there against weak competition. That has made their record and statistics look better than they really are. I don't think the Spartans are very good. They only scored 42 points in a 14-point loss to Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago before they went on their Virgin Islands trip. I think these teams are closer than this point spread indicates. |
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11-26-23 | Bellarmine +9 v. West Virginia | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
It's too many points for West Virginia to lay. The Mountaineers have a short bench and haven't broken the 70-point barrier yet this season. They are still learning their rotation and breaking in players. |
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11-25-23 | West Virginia -10.5 v. Baylor | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12. |
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11-25-23 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form. |
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11-25-23 | Jacksonville State -2.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week. |
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11-24-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 110-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct. |
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11-24-23 | Air Force v. Boise State -6 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a tumultuous season for Boise State to say the least, culminating in the firing of head coach Andy Avalos. But with their season on the line, the Broncos responded under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson rallying from a 10-0 deficit to beat Utah State, 45-10, as 4 1/2-point road favorites last week.
This victory was significant because it moved the Broncos' record to 6-5 keeping them alive in the Mountain West Conference title race and boosting their chances of earning a bowl bid for the 26th straight year. A key for the Broncos was having their two best running backs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, healthy and ready to play at the same time. The Boise State players thought so highly of Danielson they presented him the game ball from that victory. It was Danielson's first game as head coach of the Broncos. Air Force, on the other hand, is heading in the opposite direction as down as it has been all season. The Falcons opened 8-0. But the roof has caved in on them this month. It started three weeks ago with a stunning, 23-3, loss to rival Army as 18-point favorites. The Falcons then lost, 27-13, on the road to Hawaii as 20 1/2-point favorites followed by a 31-27 home loss to UNLV. Air Force was favored by a field goal in that game and blew a 24-7 lead. The Falcons' confidence is shaky at best, while Boise State has all the momentum plus a very strong home field edge at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have defeated Air Force in five of the last six seasons, including 19-14 last season as 2-point road favorites. |
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11-24-23 | BYU v. Arizona State +10.5 | 77-49 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
No knock on BYU. I just think this is a good buy-low spot on Arizona State. The Sun Devils narrowly escaped getting upset at home by UMass Lowell in their last game. That was a week ago. So the Sun Devils should be rested and well prepared for this neutral site matchup in Las Vegas as part of the Las Vegas Showdown tournament. |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup. |
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11-22-23 | New Mexico -7.5 v. Rice | Top | 90-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
I can't see Rice hanging in against New Mexico in this neutral site matchup in Henderson, Nevada as part of the Ball Dawgs Classic Tournament. Rice has lost three in a row and ranks 339th in scoring defense giving up 82.3 points and 346th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-21-23 | Jazz +7.5 v. Lakers | 99-131 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20. |
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11-21-23 | Blazers +13 v. Suns | Top | 107-120 | Push | 0 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. |
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11-21-23 | Pacers +4 v. Hawks | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
This has the makings of a crazy, high-scoring game where the last team with the ball wins. That's one reason why I like the underdog Pacers. Another is Indiana is off an embarrassing 12-point home loss to Orlando this past Sunday in a game where the final doesn't fully reflect how bad the Magic stomped the Pacers.
Rick Carlisle was far from pleased with the defensive effort of his Pacers. Indiana has won and covered the past three times following a defeat. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 52 m | Show |
The Chiefs beat the Eagles at a neutral site in the Super Bowl and they'll beat them at home. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last dozen home games.
Kansas City is the healthier team and has the better defense. It's remarkable how good the Chiefs' defense has gotten. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in scoring defense giving up 15.9 points per game, ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed and is fifth in pass defense. The Eagles' defense can't match that given their vulnerable secondary. Philadelphia entered this week allowing 19 TD passes, third-worst in the league, while ranking 28th in pass defense. Jalen Hurts might be the second-best QB in football. But Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Hurts also will be missing his third-best receiver, injured tight end Dallas Goedert. Both teams were idle last week. No coach in history has been better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 21-3 in that role. |
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11-20-23 | Oregon -20 v. Florida A&M | 67-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Oregon has some injuries, but I have to go with my power ratings and I have the Ducks 24-point favorites here so I'm laying this number.  These same two teams played in Oregon last season and the Ducks buried Florida A&M, 80-45.  Oregon is 3-0. The Ducks rolled past Tennessee State, 92-67, at home as 18 1/2-point favorites in their last game this past Friday.  Florida A&M can't compete at this level. The Rattlers are 0-3. Their three losses all were by blowouts - 105-54 to Creighton, 81-54 to Nebraska and 89-68 to Florida.   The Rattlers are deficient in rebounding and commit way too many turnovers to stay in this game against this caliber of opponent.Â
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11-19-23 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +8 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Winnipeg was upset by Toronto in last year's Grey Cup. I can see the Blue Bombers getting upset again by a hot Montreal team. I'll certainly take more than a touchdown to find out. All the pressure is on the Blue Bombers. |
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11-19-23 | Chargers -3 v. Packers | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 42 m | Show |
As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. |
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11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -11.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 24 m | Show | |
Afraid to lay big chalk in the NFL? Don't be. Double-digit favorites are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.  Look for the Dolphins to continue that run of success. Miami comes off its bye with De'Von Achane eligible to play again and Jaylen Waddle at 100 percent. The Raiders' soft zone coverage may work against Tommy DeVito and Zach Wilson, but Tua Tagovailoa is going to pick their vulnerable secondary apart.  The Dolphins lead the NFL in most points and yards by wide margins. They've lit up far better defenses than the Raiders.  Not only does offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel have extra time to prepare more innovations, but the Raiders are traveling cross-country to play at an early start time for them. This is with a rookie QB and rookie head coach.  Miami has beaten all the mediocre-to-bad teams on its schedule. The Dolphins' losses have come when stepping up - Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. This is a monster step down after their last game against the Chiefs. The Dolphins, by the way, had their best defensive half of the season in that game holding Kansas City scoreless in the second half.  The Dolphins have been dominant at home, too, winning 16 of the past 18 times. The Raiders are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 during their past four road games. They have road losses of 28 points to the Bills, 18 points to the Bears and 12 points to the Lions.Â
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11-19-23 | Cardinals +6 v. Texans | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 7 m | Show | |
The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks. |
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11-18-23 | Portland v. Nevada -13.5 | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Nevada upset Washington on the road two games ago and then rolled past Pacific, 88-39, at home three days ago. Now the WolfPack draw another bad West Coast Conference team, Portland. |
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11-18-23 | Texas v. Iowa State +7.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately. |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +1.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results. |
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11-17-23 | Pistons +9 v. Cavs | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday. |
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11-16-23 | UMass Lowell +7.5 v. Arizona State | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Arizona State has the bigger name. But Massachusetts Lowell is very underrated. It wouldn't shock me if the 3-0 River Hawks upset the Sun Devils straight-up. Lowell did just that against Georgia Tech beating the Yellow Jackets, 74-71, on the road this past Tuesday. The River Hawks won a school-record 26 games last season. Lowell also has an impressive 33-point blowout victory against Dartmouth this season.Â
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11-14-23 | Blazers +6.5 v. Jazz | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six. |
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11-14-23 | Texas State v. Oklahoma -15 | Top | 54-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Oklahoma is looking for a strong season in its final year in the Big 12 Conference. That means a return to the NCAA Tournament, something that didn't happen last season. So the Sooners will look to win by lopsided margins. |
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11-12-23 | Nevada +5 v. Washington | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I regard these teams as even. So does the KenPom rankings, which list Nevada 69th and Washington 70th. |
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11-12-23 | Jets +1 v. Raiders | 12-16 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 12 m | Show | |
The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 26-29 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 40 m | Show |
The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 85 h 50 m | Show | |
After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers. |
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11-11-23 | Flyers v. Kings -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
The Kings buried the Flyers, 5-0, on the road a week ago. This spot sets up for the Kings to win by multiple goals again. |
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11-11-23 | Texas -10.5 v. TCU | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. |
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