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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-09 | Northwestern v. Illinois -3.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Illinois -3.5 (3-Dime EB Special) 1-5 scale
I'm going with Illinois to continue their surge and make a bid for a bowl bid by the end of the year. Illinois has one of the more talented teams around, but had gotten off to a dreadful start. I took them a couple times I paid once and cashed in another spot. Here it's my favorite spot for them hosting Illinois. It has not been an easy schedule for Illinois thus far and now they finally can breathe a bit at home against Northwestern a team that is just asking for a let down here on Saturday off their first upste of a top 5 ranked team in 50+ years when they took down Iowa last week. Although they got some help when they knocked Ricky Stanzi out of the game. Why Illinois? Well as I mentioned before they have been victim of a tough schedule they really have not had the advantage of playing MAC teams like Northwestern. Northwestern has looked awful against even those such as Miami OH. However what makes me like this the best is the way Illinois is playing in their last two games. They also have faced an average offensive attack ranked 59th which is nothing to brag home about but playing the Big 10 that is a solid opponent. Just compare it to Northwestern's average opponent ranked 76th. That just shows me Illinois has had the stronger schedule. In a recent win over Minnesota on the road Illinois out gained them by 80 yards and that game could had been much worse as they surrendered 22 points late. On the other hand Northwestern got clobbered by Minnesota at home 24-35 just a sign of the talent that is on Illinois team if and when they can put it together. How will Illinois win? Running the ball. Illinois ranked 25th in the nation at running the ball will have room to be optimistic despite facing the 33rd ranked rush defense. That is a little bit of a fraud rank as Northwestern has faced an average rushing attack ranked 88th. Illinois is running the ball better than they ever have before with Sophmores Jason Ford and Mikel Leshoure both are big boys and bruisers in the backfield. At QB Juice Williams will start, but the reigns will be turned over to freshmen Jacob Charest who in relief of Williams threw for 185 yards and a TD on 10-19. He's 6-4 and a 220lb he has a live arm and has the ability to utitlize the talent and depth of receivers on this team allowing them to throw on Northwestern's suspect secondary. Defense!! Yes Illinois has woken up finally! They produced just seven sacks in its first seven games, but now posted four sacks against Michigan and then seven against Minnesota. I think DT Josh Brent and DE Clay Nurse will give Northwestern's line and Mike Kafka who is not as mobile as he normally is with his hamstring issue a lot of issues! Illinois wins by 10+ in this spot in my opinion. |
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11-14-09 | Clemson -8 v. North Carolina State | 43-23 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
Take Clemson -8 @ -104 3-Dime EB Special Bonus
I'm going with Clemson in this game they are maybe the hottest team in the ACC right now, winning four in a row. The defense has been great and RB C.J. Spiller is allover the place. QB Kyle Parker also has throw 7 TD in last two games against FSU and Miami. I look for him to have another big game here against the Wolfpack which is really banged up and they have given up at least 30 points in their last six games. Don't forget WR Jacoby Ford, he also will be too much for this defense. Coach Swinney has challenged his team saying that they have yet to go on the road and play a complete game. With that challenge out there I think it will be enough motivation for a 10+ point win. Clemson has faced far better offensive attack this year and their defense is ranked 12th in the nation. NC State has similar games against Boston College where thye lost 20-52 and were -86 total yards while Clemson whooped BC 25-7 and were +199 yards. Another common opponent Wake Forest was a loss for NC State 24-30, while Clemson handled them 38-3 and were +204 yards. Clearly the better team and I don't think they will lose focus or anything. The last two meetings @ NC State Clemson has out scored the Wolfpack 73-30. |
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11-13-09 | West Virginia v. Cincinnati -9.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
Take Cincinnati -9.5 @ -109 (4-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with Cincinnati here and I'm taking the points. Just two weeks ago South Florida's offense was able to move the ball with a similar QB in BJ Daniels all over West Virginia. Daniels can pass and throw, and Zach Collaros who has come in for Pike and is likely to start for one more week is a more polished version of Daniels. Collaros is the reigning Big East player of the week after breaking a Big East conference record with 555 yards of total offense in a win over Uconn a pretty good defense to boot. Now West Virginia had not faced a solid offense all year or even close to what Cincinnati can do. The only team close is Auburn and West Virginia lost by 11 on the road, but Cinci's defense is much better than Auburn in my opinion. West Virginia has faced an average offense ranked 79.5 and and average 83rd passing attack and their defense is only 60th against the pass? Wow they are in for a rude awakening and I think they know it as Cincinnati has weapons all over the field in Gilyard, Binns, and D.J. Woods. The ground game is even working as of late with Collaros behind center running a bit as well as Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey getting big plays. Cincinnati has faced a much stronger schedule thus far in terms of offenses and defenses that they have faced. Cincinnati's opponents average total defense ranked 58th in the nation compared to West Virginia's 72nd. Cincinnati's opponents average total offense ranked 63rd compared to West Virginia's 79.5th. I mean no matter how you spin in Cincinnati has the better team and the only weakness for Cinci all year long has been the rushing defense. However, they've only been burnt when they were up big and teams decided still to run so the defense was not playing the run. Cincinnati should be able to stack the box against Devine regardless and he's coming off an ankle injury which is the worst for RB's so if he's a big ? on Friday I mean he's playing, but who knows what you get from him and that's the key to West Virginia keeping this one close. I mean even their head coach doesn't know how they'll win this game stating, "Cincinnati is powerful, I don't know what we are going to do," -Bill Stewart. Cincinnati also has plenty of revenge and motivation as they want to continue to be undefeated and move up in the polls along with the fact that they have never won at home against West Virginia. They did win last year in OT 26-23 in West Virginia, but the revenge and the point to prove at home on a Friday night. Finally common opponents a small piece of the puzzle in handicapping and changes all the time. Louisville, South Florida, and Uconn. Each one of these games was played at the same place Louisville and Uconn both traveled to Cincinnati and WV, while Cinn and WV visited South Florida. Cincinnati went 3-0 and WV wen 2-1 losing to South Florida, but against Louisville they were outgained by 28 yards while Cinn was +193 yards. Even against Uconn Cinn was +249 while WV was -114. Against South Florida Cinn was +25 while WV again was -98. That just proves the major difference between these two teams. Wait Fred West Virginia is 53-3 when winning the turnover battle over the last seven years. Hmmm nice try, Cincinnati never turns the ball over they have yet to lose a fumble and have just 4 interceptions and they are 3rd in the nation in turnover margin. |
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11-12-09 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers -3 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
[b]Take 49ers -2.5 3-Dime POD buy 1/2 money -120[/b]
Bottom line the Niners need this game and they have the home field advantage. The Bears have not played well at all as of late as Matt Forte continues to struggle running the ball and during that time Jay Cutler has gone pick happy throwing 7 interceptions over the last 4 games. The Niners are coming off 4 straight games and all 4 were of quality besides maybe the Titans, but I disagree on that one as this was the 13-3 team that is acting like it finally. They also lost by just 4 at the Colts and home to the Falcons and Texans all probable playoff teams except the Titans. Bears gave up 514 rushing yards in the last 3 games look for Frank Gore to get it going here tonight which will allow for Alex Smith to operate where he is most comfortable out of the play action going over the top to Vernon Davis. Bears are 28th in pass TD's allowed and are the 13th worst against TE allowing 6 TD's this year which should allow Davis to break free for one atleast. The 49ers are 6-0 ATS vs. the Bears at home and the number has started to rise from opening at -2.5 to 3.5 and 4's in some places. |
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11-12-09 | South Florida v. Rutgers -2 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Take Rutgers -2 @ -110 (4.5 Dime POD)1-5 scale
I love Rutgers here tonight, and I have a lot of respect for their head coach and how he progresses as the season goes along. The story here to me is Rutgers ability to force turnovers and their ability not to turn the ball over. Last year they forced South Florida to throw three picks and three fumbles in a 49-16 victory. South Florida comes surging in after a Friday night victory over West Virginia. Make no mistake we had a POD selection on that game and I have a lot of respect for South Florida, but just not on the road with their freshmen QB B.J. Daniels he will have his hands filled with different blitz schemes and a 100 yard running game will not be there for the taking as the Scarlet Knights are very buttoned up on defense and ranked 26th against the run. The pressure Daniels will see from George Johnson, Silvestro, and Freeny and the occasion of D'Imperio will be too much and they will force their turnovers. After all Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin they have forced 25 and they have given up just 7. Now Rutgers has a freshmen of their own in Savage. He tends to hold onto the ball too long, but he still does not throw the interception he'll take the sack which I won't be surprised to see here tonight. But I'd rather have him take the sack then throw the interception and that takes serious maturity as a QB to do. That is why they are 2nd in the Big East in sacks allowed. Despite having a very big offensive line and one of the best on their line they give up sacks because Savage would rather take the sack then throw the interception. However, like in years past this offense is coming together the 87th rank should not fool you at all. They are stacked at WR and RB. I think they can get the running game going against South Florida and to do so they have 3 guys who have different styles in 235 lb bruise Joe Martinek to run up the middle along with Jourdan Brooks and electrifying freshmen De'Antwan Williams on the outside. Let's talk receivers they have depth and guys to stretch the field in Tim Brown the 5'8 150 lb receiver can not be stopped by South Florida. He's small but one of the fastest guys in the country and he's become Savage's favorite target along with stand out freshmen Sanu. Also coming along is a freshmen from my home town and played in my flag football league last year Mark Harrison. Harrison is a big guy with good speed 6'3 and 230 he's a physical guy and a nice compliment to Sanu. Harrison caught his first TD a week ago for 20 yards. Bottom line they have compliments on offense everything you want to see. A big offensive line, a QB who is accurate and tall and does not make mistakes, a fast receiver to stretch the field and open up the running game, a tall possession receiver in Sanu, and a solid running game with several backs who have different unique abilities. South Florida has always struggled on the road in the North East and tonight will be the same with Daniels intimidated by the pass rush in colder conditions than he's used to. |
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11-10-09 | Ohio +1.5 v. Buffalo U | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Ohio +1.5 (3.3 Dime Play 1-5 scale)
No POD mark on this play, but it is a strong opinion as I think Ohio is the better team. Two common opponents of Akron and Bowling Green. Ohio went on the road to beat both these teams 19-7 against Akron, and 44-37 against Bowling Green while Buff lost @ home to Bowling Green last weekend and barely beat Akron 21-17 @ home last week. The story in this one is that Zach Maynard the starting QB and WR T. Jackson are suspended for the first quarter. This is the opportunity where Ohio has to stop the run and load the box and get an early lead possibly by forcing turnovers. This defense is solid against the pass but has proven to be a little soft against the run. The key for Ohio is to stop the run in a game they must have. I have found it possible for teams to do this in must win situations where the defensive front just holds the advantage of wanting it more. This will be the case here tonight as Ohio also has an extra 3 days rest compared to Buffalo and they have another 9 days off after this. They are already bowl eligible but are fighting for more. Buffallo faced Temple although on the road with similar rankings on offense and defense, and were crushed 37-13 they are the closest example I could find to what Ohio posesses the only difference is Temple slightly better at running the ball, but Ohio had to go up against the likes of Tenn and Uconn where they were -354 yards rushing both are solid running teams and top flight run stopping teams. Speaking of Ohio's road trip to Tenn it's the only road game they lost as they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year and when they visited Tenn they lost by just 11. This offense can put up points at times and QB Sr. Theo Scott has been brilliant at times, but has also had some questionable games. The extra time off has given Ohio the ability to add some new wrinkles to the spread offense specifically in short goal line situations where they have had problems. Buffalo's defense is prone to giving up yards in the passing game as was the case when Bowling Green battled back. There will be opportunities for Ohio to score here tonight. If Ohio can shut down the run that has a lot of injuries for Buffalo but has depth than they should have this game won setting up a battle with Northern Illinois in 9 days. Bottom line Buffalo has struggled all year to put up points 89th in the nation facing an average 58th scoring defense tonight they face 30th ranked and they have struggled stopping opponents from scoring ranked 77th in scoring defense themselves. Two ingredients that I like in this match up along with two key players being out for the 1st quarter. |
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11-09-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
Take Steelers -2 4-Dime POD
For as bad as I have been in NFL I have been great in NCAAF, but that all does not matter with the losers in NFL. I am dedicated to turning this around the 2nd half of the year and will do so starting tonight by making some major tweaks. Normally I'd be on the Broncos here, and it's based off line movement as the public is on the Steelers but the line moves the other way. However, looking at this match up more there is just no way I can take the Broncos who finally gave up some 2nd half points to the Ravens last week. Now the Ravens are similar to the Steelers in more ways than one. Like the Ravens last week the Steelers are coming off the bye. LIke the Ravens the Steelers have a shut down defense only the Steelers possess the #1 rush defense and overall are better. Like the Ravens the Steelers have always been a run first team, but are doing it through the air this year. While the Ravens have a slightly better running game the Steelers are starting to look better over the last three weeks with 4.3 yards per carry. Now the ability to stop the run against the Broncos is the key and sets up a more favorable match up for a team if they can do so. Now I'm going to give you three reasons why the Steelers are better than the Broncos along with the fact that home field won't be as much of an advantage tonight because the Steelers are in fact coming off a bye giving them more time to prepare. Making the home field vs. team off bye a wash. Three reasons: Both teams played at home vs. the Browns. Steelers outgained CLE by 346 yards, while Denver outgained them by 249. +97 yard advantage to Steelers. Both teams played at the Bengals. Steelers outgained them by 100 yards while Denver was outgained by 5 yards. +105 yard advantage to Steelers. Denver @ Chargers out gained the Chargers by 17 yards, but the Steelers at home outgained them by 246 yards. That's a +229 yard advantage to Steelers. Certainly proves that the Steelers are the better team to me defensively because they were able to stop San Diego while Denver just could not and struggled vs. the pass. Denver is a great defense and should be able to get to Big Ben a bunch tonight, but it's the plays that Big Ben make with his feet to get outside the pocket and get the ball to his receivers that win this game. If you throw out the running game because both defenses have top 5 run stopping units the passing game is where the game gets decided for me. Now Big Ben although he takes a lot of sacks he does not turn the ball over via fumble something the Broncos have feasted on this year. This is good news for the Steelers as Big Ben will likely break a few sacks and get the ball away to one of the receivers. Pitt on the other hand plays better pass defense than indicated as they lost Troy Polamoulou's for quite some time and now he'll be back for his 2nd game and off a bye to really come into play. The dink and dunk passing won't work against the Steelers and Orton is going to have to take some shots. Overall I'll take Big Ben over Kyle Orton who maybe for the first time looks human and makes some big time mistakes. Baltimore proved that it was possible to score on the Broncos in the 2nd half and should give the Steelers confidence to put this team away late. |
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11-08-09 | Washington Redskins +10 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
I'm going with the Redskins here as the POD. Redskins are coming off the bye this week, and I feel very confident that their offense that is now under Sherm Lewis has made a few strides in the off time. It had looked better throughout their game before the bye and now they have had the extra time to prepare against an Atlanta team that does not have the defense that Philly possesses. Atlanta may win the game, but the fact that we are getting 9 or 10 points to play with makes me feel good considering Washington's Defense is ranked 4th in total yards this season. They are also giving up an average 17.6 pts ranked 5th. I expect them to be right in line for an upset and could win the game outright.
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11-07-09 | Louisiana Monroe v. North Texas | Top | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
[b]Take LA Monroe -1 4.5 DIME POD[/b]
I'm going with another Sun Belt surprise with LA Monroe to take care of the Mean green who are a Monet, not what they appear after last weeks 68-49 win over Western Kentucky. At times the offense has been able to score, but Western Kentucky is ranked 108th in offense and 120th on defense. This team does not compare to LA Monroe a team that played right with the top teams of the conference. @ Troy the Warhawks were out gained by just 32 yards while North Texas also at Troy were out gained by 302 yards. It's good that the Mean Green were able to take some of their frustration out last week, but it will be a different going up against the Warhawks who are ranked 50th in offense and 64th in defense including 16th against the run. North Texas can't play defense, and LA Monroe can. Actually LA Monroe out gained Kentucky @ Kentucky a few weeks back by 47 points. Vegas is over exaggerating the line based on 68 points North Texas put up. Take the small road chalk and roll with another POD winner. |
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11-07-09 | LSU v. Alabama -7 | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Alabama -7 buy 1/2 point if you have to
The LSU team and offense are overrated. This may be the most athletic team Alabama has faced, but that does not mean much to me. I think Alabama is a far superior team than LSU and their offense really is not that good. Why is this just a TD, for one Tenn nearly beat Alabama and their struggles in the red zone continue, but their defense continues to dominate. If it was not for a late turnover Tenn would have won 12-3, but the good sign is that Alabama is off a bye and Jones is coming off his best game with 7 catches which should open things up for the Alabama offense that will have 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I'm taking the Alabama Crimson Tide in a 2 TD winner! |
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11-01-09 | Miami Dolphins v. New York Jets -3 | 30-25 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Take jets -3 3-Dime POD Runner up
I'm taking the points with the Jets. A lot of story lines to go over here... First of all let's start with the injuries as the Jets lost Jenkins and Leon Washington in consecutive weeks. While the lose to Jenkins is huge, the loss to Leon is not as big of a deal as many may think as rookie Shonn Greene provides the Jets with some very nice depth and it showed as he ran over 100 yards along with Thomas Jones last week. On the other side it took nearly a perfect game for Chad Henne and the Dolphins to win at home by 4 points on the last play of the game. Henne was 20-26 throwing for 246 yards and 2 TD and 0 INT he was near flawless and Tedd Ginn had his best game yet. A lot has changed as Ginn is basically benched for dropping catches. We will most likely see him out there, but don't expect 60 yard passes to him like he had against the Jets the first time. Sanchez had one of his better games with Braylon Edwards in this contest, and now he finally will have a healthy crew of WR to go along with a rushing attack that is now #1 in the NFL after consecutive 300+ yard performances first time since the 1975 Bills. Jets should be able to run on the Dolphins and I expect at home Sanchez to have his first "big game" against a pass defense ranked 22nd in the league. I love the Jets in this revenge spot as their is lots of chatter going on between these teams. It is clear they don't like each other, and it will be a smash mouth type game. The better QB wins and today it's going to be Sanchez with Cotchery his favorite target coming back this should open things up. |
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11-01-09 | Seattle Seahawks +10 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Take Seahawks +10 (4-Dime play)
Seahawks off the bye and are as healthy as they have been all season long. Trufant back at CB, and Hassleback back at QB. Look for the Seahawks to take this one outright possibly. Just because the Cowboys looked good last week does not mean they are back quite yet. The Seahawks have a solid core of receivers, and some linebackers that should be able to contain the run enough. Seahawks are coming off the bye and off a very bad loss the fact that they are getting double digits to me is a little silly. This was a team I had as a sleeper to win the NFC West while that does not look likely they still dominated the Jaguars 41-0 just two weeks ago how quickly we forget. Speaking of a short term memory the Cowboys are the same team that let the Chiefs hang around. Look for the Seahawks to give Tony Romo some problems on Sunday. |
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10-31-09 | USC v. Oregon +3 | 20-47 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Oregon +3.5 3-Dime play
This is not the sexy pick, but Oregon is the play here once again USC's shut down defense has looked troublesome as of late, but suddenly they have looked vulnerable. They let Notre Dame look like hte best team in the country in the 4th quarter, and Oregon STate totaled 482 yards a week ago. USC really struggles with mobile QB's and Jeremy Massoli should and will have a big game running the ball. I expect a game down to the wire, but it will be defensive, and I expect Oregon to be able to run the ball enough to win this game out right and finally take the reigns of the Pac-10! |
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10-31-09 | Washington State +27.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Wash State +28 -120 Buy 1/2 Point 3.5 dime Play
Like I said last weekend I'll continue to fade Notre Dame until proven otherwise this team is the most over rated team in football in my opinion. Charlie Weis is a shit coach and is bad as a coach as he is taking care of his body.. joking of course. But in reality the PAC-10 is much better than the Big Ten the opponents that Notre Dame has been facing. Pete Carrol has been quoted stating that the Pac-10 is the best it has been since he's been at USC. yes this is the last placed team... BUT They are battle tested and have faced better defenses than Notre Dame has faced, and much better defenses than Notre Dame itself. With that said Notre Dame has no business being a 4TD favorite at a neutral field in my opinion. Washington STate may be one of the worst teams in the league but you wont notice on Saturday as they have a lot to play for in this situation. QB Jeff Tuel looked sharp a week ago throwing for 354 yards against CAl a much better pass defense than Notre Dame ranked 117th. With that said Wash State's only bright spot matches Notre Dames weakness. Take the 4TDs |
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10-31-09 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -3 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
write up to come
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10-31-09 | Middle Tenn St v. Florida Atlantic -2.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
[b]Take FAU -2.5 (3.5 Dime OE play)[/b]
I'm going with FAU for the third week in a row, the first time we had them as a POD, last week we gave you them as dogs in 20 point easy win as a free pick. This week it's our oddsmaker Error as Vegas is still not giving this team respect despite the 2-1 record inside the Sun Belt. The 2-4 record on the season has many worried, but this team has cleaned up its act and early season trouble all the way to being the 11th overall offense in the nation. This team struggled with turn overs, and penalties especially in the red zone which cost them points. They won the last two weeks on the road and now they return home to look to show their home fans just what kind of a different team they have become. They will play MTSU which has solid offensive ranks and should be able to move the ball against FAU's improving defense, but then again they have not played any strong defense, as they have an average ranked defense opponent at 83. Defensively MTSU has struggled too so I expect them to have their hands full with the red hot FAU team. This reminds me of a game where MTSU visited Troy earlier this year. FAU now has similar ranks that Troy has offensively and defense that game resulted in a loss @ Troy 7-31. Look FAU to continue to improve on defense and for their offense to keep picking up the steam. They have well over 1100 yards in the last two games and Alfred Morris is coming off his career best 181 yards. Rusty Smith is red hot as well and a NFL prospect to boot! Take the red hot Owls to continue! |
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10-31-09 | Purdue v. Wisconsin -7 | 0-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
writeup after
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10-30-09 | West Virginia v. South Florida +3 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Take South Florida +3.5 (3.5 Dime POD)
I'm going with South Florida which may surprise a few people considering South Florida got exposed the last two games in the Big East after opening up 5-0 on the season with two straight losses to Pitt and Cinci. While I do think West Virginia fits into the top 3 teams in the Big East along with Pitt and Cinci they are a distant third. I don't see the balanced attack as they are ranked 47th in passing, but they have faced an average 70th ranked pass defense. Tonight they'll face South Florida's 25th ranked passing defense. In the last two games where South Florida got beat they faced the 10th and 57th ranked passing offense, but I think Pitt is much more balanced than West Virginia as Stull is well under rated at QB for Pitt. South Florida has the speed on defense to stop Noel Devine as they have in the past and George Selvie will spend a lot of time in the backfield on Friday night. It's a home game that is a tough environment to play in for West Virginia. Their pass defense will leave the door open for red shirt freshmen B.J. Daniels to come back with a strong effort. As they played 43rd and 54th ranked pass defense on Friday night they will face the 88th ranked pass defense that has played against bad passing attacks ranked 74th. I think South Florida should be able to move the ball enough to get the points they need to cover the spread and win this game outright. If Uconn's Cody Endres can throw for 378 yard I think B.J. Daniels can have a successful night as well. Believe it or not it appears the strength of schedule is on South Florida's side they have played much tougher offenses an overall average rank of 58th, and their defense ranks 27th overall while West Virginia has benefited from facing an overall 76th ranked offense and has the 36th ranked defense. While their rushing defense is solid they have been exposed in the air particularly on crossing routes. Both teams won in similar fashion @ Syracuse 34-13 for West Virginia and 34-20 for South Florida. Again I just see these two teams as very close to even. The key will be to have a spy on Noel Devine because he changed the game against Uconn with a 177 yards in the second half last week to give them the 28-24 win. South Florida has stopped him before and I think they'll keep him under tap enough to get stops on defense. Thus being at home for South florida on a Friday night will hold a major advantage in my eyes. |
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10-27-09 | East Carolina -5 v. Memphis | 38-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Take ECU -4 (3-Dime play)(1-5 scale)
The only bright spot going for Memphis is their half back Curtis Steele. Unfortunately he'll face a rush defense ranked 29th. Although ECU's rush defense is a little over valued as they have played an average 78th rushing attack they still have been solid inside C-USA play and have a pretty good rushing attack themselves. If HB Dominique Lindsay who is questionable with an ankle can go I am very confident in ECU's ability to run the ball better than Memphis. The reason is the defensive line for ECU is far better than Memphis defensive line. Both teams possess a veteran offensive line, but the difference maker in this game will be the defensive line. Memphis and ECU have had two common opponents UCF and Marshall. ECU beat both teams while Memphis lost to both and were out gained on the ground by a total of 318 yards, while ECU out gained UCF by 40 and were out gained by just 24 in a win over Marshall. ECU is the better team and although I normally like the under dogs in games like this one I feel that ECU found it's confidence and has all the momentum after their last win against Rice. ECU has one of the more talented front seven's in C-USA with C.J. Wilson on the outside and Joseph and Ross on the inside. Most of Steele's 371 rushing yards came against a UTEP team ranked 112th in rush defense. Steele is good, but Lindsay is not that far off and ECU has the better defensive line that will make the difference. Another major advantage which will be the X-factor in this game is special teams. ECU has a distinct advantage here. Memphis gave up 33 yards per kick return and 26.5 per punt return and a TD last week. They rank near the bottom of the league in most special teams categories, 8th in kick coverage, 11th in kick returns and 12th in punt returns. There are just six teams in the nation with a lower punt return average than Memphis. While ECU on the other side had Dwayne Harris take one back for the 2nd straight week, and their punter Dodge is 13th in the nation in punt yardage and the coverage units have done a nice job. This should tilt the field in ECU's favor all night. Another stat is ECU's ability to create turnovers as their secondary has 10 turnovers to Memphis' 6. They have some special coverages designed for the Tigers tall receivers and should make the changes needed in the extra time off that has burned them for giving up long passes in the passing game. ECU's pass defense is better than they are getting credit for. Actually the Pirates have scored 44 non-offensive TD's since 99 which ranks 15th in the nation. What else is very impressive is this defense is 10th nationally with 17 forced turnovers this season and they have held their opponents in the last two games to a 26.9% third down success rate. Both SMU and Rice could not convert on a third down of more than five yards. If they can stop Steele on first down this is the advantage ECU will have over Memphis and an inexperienced QB in Hodge who is their 3rd QB this year. |
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