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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-16-23 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Cowboys -1.5 2.2% play |
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10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
Patriots +3 -115 3.5% play |
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10-15-23 | 49ers v. Browns +10 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Browns +10 3.3% play |
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10-14-23 | UAB +9.5 v. UTSA | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
UAB +9.5 5.5% pod |
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10-14-23 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. North Carolina | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami +3.5 3.3% play |
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10-14-23 | USC +3 v. Notre Dame | 20-48 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
USC+3 2.2% play USC is 2-4 ATS this season, and now they go on the road for their most difficult task to face the Notre Dame team that suffered their season ending 2nd loss. I don’t think Notre Dame planned to suffer their 2nd loss already this season, but the fact is they let the Ohio State game get away, they should have lost to Duke, and Lousiville pretty much dominated that game if you ask me. This game to me is all about the coaching mismatch, and although I don’t respect the DC of USC for obvious reasons. Lincoln Riley is head and shoulders above Marcus Freeman who continues to make poor decisions late in the game. Notre Dame’s offense is also lacking, which is surprising since Sam Hartman is their QB, but Hartman has struggled when competition has picked up, and he lacks the athletic receivers he had at Wake Forest.  Ironically I bet Notre Dame +5 last year on the road, and now they’re 3 point favorites, which I can’t see that big of a line move in this match up. My handicap was USC’s poor run defense (120th at the time) against Notre Dame’s strength of running the ball, but USC actually held them to 90 yards rushing in the game. Now doing that on the road poses more of a challenge, but I like USC’s coaching staff more to make adjustments, and this is a pretty big game for the Trojans who want to prove something as everyone is talking about Oregon and Washington being the best teams out of the PAC 12. Lastly, this is Notre Dame’s 8th week in a row playing football and that includes a trip to Ireland to start the season. The last 3 weeks have been high leverage, and I just have to think and it maybe showed last week… What does this team have left? |
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10-14-23 | Auburn +11.5 v. LSU | 18-48 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
Auburn +11.5 2.2% This is probably the best defense LSU has faced all year, and Auburn will come in fully rested off a bye after taking Georgia to the end of the game. LSU’s offense is clicking, but this is their 7th straight game, and the last 3 games have been extremely high leverage games decided in the final seconds. What does this team have left, especially the defense? I’m not sure they have much, and Auburn's defense should be able to keep them in it. Auburn ranks 58th in ypp, but their opponent average offense ranks 25th and they are holding opponents 11.4 points under their season average. Compare that with LSU who ranks 124th against a 46th average offense. Auburn also the far better special teams here, and their head coach Hugh Freeze 29-12 ATS as a dog. |
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10-14-23 | Oregon v. Washington -3 | 33-36 | Push | 0 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
Washington -3 The Huskies have not played anyone that is on the same level as Oregon thus far, but they have played the tougher schedule and have better results. When you take out garbage time the Huskies have an average success rate of 38th against an average opponent success rate of 70th, while Oregon is at 53.5 vs. 90.4. Oregon should have lost to Texas Tech on the road trailing 27-18 entering the 4th quarter, and Tech driving late to kick a field goal to win it coughed up the ball and Oregon took it back for a TD for a misleading 38-30 win. The Huskies have been absolutely dominant at home, and while the teams they have faced are not on the level of Oregon they have plenty of confidence seeing they went to Oregon last year and pulled out a win as 12 point dogs. The biggest reason i LIke Washington is their defense is flat out better. They rank 35th in ypp allowed against an average opponent ranking 61.8, while ORegon is 51st against an average 91.25 opponent. This is going to be a fabulous game, and I feel Washington is not getting the credit they deserve, and then factor in Bo Nix road splits, which even last year showed up. Entering this season he has 28 TD to 20 INT in road games, and 30 TD to 3 INT at home. |
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10-14-23 | Bowling Green +4.5 v. Buffalo | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play Buffalo is not a very good team this year. They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty. I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot after upsetting a very good Georgia Tech team the week before. Buffalo is -2 yards per play on the season against an opponent average of -0.16, while Bowling Green does not impress at -1.7 ypp it has come against an average opponent +1.28 ypp. I think they shoudl be able to run the ball here as Buffalo ranks 130th in defensive ypc, and their should be opportunity for some explosive plays as they rank 25th in explosive offense comparedt o Buffalo who ranks 116th in explosive defense. Overall this is a strenght of schedule play as Buffalo far worse on offense and defense and has played a far weaker schedule. Thier average opponen ypp defense is 85.6 compared to Bowling Green's 35th, and their average opponent offense ranks 64th compared to Bowling Greens 37.6.  |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Tennessee -3 3.3% play |
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10-13-23 | Fresno State v. Utah State +4.5 | 37-32 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
Utah State +4.5 2.2% / Utah State +170 0.8% play Fresno State could be without their starting QB Mikey Keene here, and I think it's trending that way on a short week as Fresno State heads back on the road to elevation for the second week in a row. Both teams are pass first teams and run tempo, but Utah State has the better passing #'s against a tougher schedule. Fresno's defense ranks 11th in ypp, but their average opponent offense ypp is 109.8th, and opponent ypp differential is -1.6. Fresno has played one of the weakest schdules to date, and with a backup QB in Logan FIfe likely making the start I think there is some value on the money line as well here. |
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Cowboys +3.5 5.5% NFL POD |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
Rams +4.5 2.2% play |
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10-08-23 | Jaguars +5.5 v. Bills | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Jaguars +5.5 2.2% play |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +6.5 | Top | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville. Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays. Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years. Jeff Brohm is the better and more experienced coach in this match up and he is 10-6 ATS as a home dog. I just don’t trust this Notre Dame team, which has played great defense, but They will be up against an offense that could give them some issues in this one, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff has yet to let Sam Hartman loose. I expect a close fought game, and the home crowd will make the difference at night. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -4 v. Missouri | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show | |
LSU -4 3.3% PLAY I’m really not buying into this MIssouri team right now. Their offense is not balanced despite ranking 21st in yards per play their average opponent ypp defense ranks 89th, and they rank 88th in rushing ypc, and while LSU’s defense has struggled it has come against teams that are top 50 in passing and rushing, and have a QB that can run. Brady Cook has only 37 rushing yards on 35 carries. I think LSU can bounce back here and I trust Brian Kelly off a loss, and he’s clearly the better coach here. I think Missouri is taking money with this line coming down, because the idea that LSU suffered a dream crushing loss last week, and their playoff hopes are done, but I think Kelly can sell to his team that if they run the table they can not only get into the SEC Championship, but the playoff if they win out. They have a game at Alabama, and Texas A&M at home to wrap up the season. The playoffs are very much still a thing for this LSU team in my opinion. LSU’s offense is elite, and nothing Missouri has faced comes close. Kansas State, and Memphis the only two teams who have top 60 passing and rushing offense, but neither have a mobile QB, and neither featured a top 20 unit while LSU is top 20 in both, and 4th in success rate overall. LSU’s defense has struggled allowing explosive plays ranking 124th, but Missouri’s offense ranks just 92nd in explosive offense.  |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma +5.5 v. Texas | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show | |
Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% PLAY Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way. To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side. First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which was a complete culture shift. Oklahoma’s defense looks like they have really turned the corner. Texas red flags to me are the fact that their offense ranks 46th on third down against an average opponent third down defense ranking 82.6. They rank 27th in ypc, but that has come against an average 83.2 ypc defense, and with garbage time eliminated they rank 86th in rushing success rate. Texas also has not faced a team yet that will push the pace as their average opponent pace is 90th, while Oklahoma ranks 33rd in seconds per play and Texas is 128th in explosive defense. Texas beat Alabama, they beat Oklahoma last year 49-0, and this is their chance to really get confident and say Texas is back, but I think Oklahoma is just the better team when it comes to 3rd downs, turnovers, and red zone.  |
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10-01-23 | Patriots +6 v. Cowboys | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Patriots +6 3.3% play |
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09-30-23 | LSU v. Ole Miss +3 | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
Ole Miss +3 -115 2.5% play LSU is a big play for a lot of folks this week, but I don’t understand it. First of all the home team is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS in the series. Ole Miss came off the game against Alabama where they did not cover, but LSU missed covering the spread a week ago by 2 TD’s. I just don’t understand how a team is favored on the road in the SEC with the 70th ranked run defense, 104th ranked QB defense, 119th ranked 3rd down defense, and 102nd ranked success rate defense. Ole Miss on the flip side is a top 50 offense and defense and they have faced a tougher schedule statistically. LSU ranks 81st in protecting their QB and heads on the road to face an Ole Miss defensive line that is elite and ranks 26th in getting to the QB. I think this line is a bit of an over reaction as many were on Ole Miss a week ago. Ole Miss also +1.6 ypp differential on the year compared to Florida State who LSU lost to is +1.2 vs. -0.25. I’m not saying Ole Miss > than FSU, but I think they are getting disrespected with this line here. |
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09-30-23 | Boise State +3 v. Memphis | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Boise State +3 2.2% play Memphis has played the far easier schedule than Boise who has faced Washington and Central Florida. Memphis needs to throw the ball to be successful while Boise needs to run it, and both defenses struggle, but Boise’s stats are a bit inflated as their game with Washington’s pass happy offense that is hard for anyone to stop. Memphis just gave up 300 yards rushing in back to back games. Both of these teams are in similar situation it feels with similar coaches that are under performing. I feel like Memphis is getting a lot of credit here for the way they played against a Missouri team out of the SEC that is currently ranked. I’m sorry Missouri is not a top 25 team and they were lucky to beat Kansas State and have not been very impressive to start the season. Memphis also has a bigger game on deck against TUlane, not that a G5 would overlook Boise State. Boise State also an extra day of rest/preparation for this one. I think this game will be a back and forth enjoyable game, but Boise State should be able to run the ball here given what we have seen from Memphis of late. Boise State is 36-0 when they run for 175+ yards since 2015. |
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09-30-23 | Indiana +14.5 v. Maryland | 17-44 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 52 m | Show | |
Indiana +14.5 2.2% play Indiana getting some extra points here in my opinion after nearly losing to Akron in OT and getting out gained by 200 yards. Indiana has played very good defense against Ohio State and Louisville, while Maryland continues to get hype despite not playing anyone. The average opponent ypp defense that Maryland has has faced ranks 108th in ypp defense, an average 92nd ypp offense, and aveage opponent -1.56 ypp differential. Maryland won 31-9 and covered the spread at Michigan State but they benefited from forcing 5 turnovers from a sputtering Spartan team. Maryland also has a very large look ahead with Ohio St on deck. Meanwhile Indiana desperate to play better and the defense continues to carry the torch. Offensively they really like to slow it down 105th in pace. |
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09-30-23 | Florida +3 v. Kentucky | 14-33 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 18 m | Show | |
Florida +3 3.3% play |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 18 m | Show | |
Syracuse +7 2.2% play |
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09-30-23 | Buffalo v. Akron -2.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 19 m | Show | |
Akron -2.5 2.2% play Some value here with Akron who has by far faced a tougher schedule with three road games at Indiana, Kentucky, and Temple, but they return home to face an underwhelming Buffalo team. Akron had a very impressive performance taking Indiana to the brink as a 16.5 point dog losing in OT. QB DJ Irons is real dual threat who will give a Buffalo defense that has been very poor defense ranking 131st in ypp. Buffalo had a misleading final last week after training by 21 in the final minutes before getting a TD, onside kick, and TD to lose by 7 to Louisiana. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
 NC State +3.5 3.3% play Everyone is drinking the kook aid for Louisville who has started 4-0 and will head on the road to face a solid NC State defense Friday night. You’d be hard to find someone actually on NC State here tonight, but I think it’s a good spot when you factor in they have an extra day of prep and they don’t have to travel and they are a home dog. Louisville coming off a great game where they lit up Boston College, and they have Notre Dame on deck, who they will host and it will be a sell out for the first time in 4 years.  Jeff Brohm has taken over Louisville and so far so good, but this is not the role I’m looking to back Brohm in as a favorite. He was just 13-19 ATS as a favorite at Purdue, he was 12-4 ATS as a dog. NC State value is real as they are 0-4 ATS so far. I think Brennan Armstrong who was reunited with his old OC Robert Annae may have a chance to have a good game. They have had 2 road games and Notre Dame at home, while Louisville only had one game on the road against Georgia Tech, a game they trailed 28-13 at the half and should have lost. NC State by far has faced the tougher schedule as their average opponent ypp differential is +0.23 compared to Louisville -1.03.  Louisville ranks 101st in ypp defense, 111th in defensive sack %, and 84th in 3rd down defense yet they are a road favorite. I’m not buying it. I expect a tight game, but NC State is poised for their best showing of the season. They trailed Notre Dame at home by only 7 points entering the 4th quarter. Armstrong ended up throwing 3 INT. NC State has only 1 TO in their other 3 games. I think NC State’s defensive line at home will be the difference. They rank 28th in sack %, and Louisville has yet to face a defense that can get after the QB. |
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09-24-23 | Titans +3.5 v. Browns | 3-27 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
Titans +3.5 2.2% play |
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09-24-23 | Colts +8 v. Ravens | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Colts +8 2.2% play |
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | 6-20 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
Falcons +3.5 2.5% play |
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09-24-23 | Broncos +6 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-70 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Broncos +6 5.5% MAX POD |
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09-23-23 | Georgia Tech +4 v. Wake Forest | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +4 3.3% play Wake Forest is a very misleading 3-09 when you factor in their easy schedule of Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominoin who they trailed 24-7 late in the third quarter last week. With the 3-0 record they are actually only +-0.2 yards per play and that has come against an average opponent rank of -0.2 ypp margin. On the flip side Georgia Tech has played an average Ypp differential opponent of +1.65. I really think Georgia Tech has the edge at QB with transfer QB King ranking 29th in QBR. They have been very good at protecting him and converting third downs top 50 in both categories, and they were right in the game against Ole Miss last week, a game that they trailed by 7 late in the 4th quarter which end up being a very bad beat as we had Georgia Tech +17.5. I think its a good time to sell on Wake Forest. |
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09-23-23 | Oklahoma State +3.5 v. Iowa State | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State +3.5 2.2% play Oklahoma State and Iowa State look like two challenging offenses, but MIke Gundy has sort of owned Matt Campbell over the years and they have been unable to win with any sort of margin. Not to mention the total has dropped two points to a whopping 35 and the weather looks horrible with 17mph winds and some rain in the forecast. This line has moved in favor of Iowa State, but I don’t see why or how both of these teams have shown up as equally bad. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 4 m | Show | |
Alabama -6.5 2.2% play Extreme buy low spot on Alabama after they lost at home to Texas they had a bit of a hang over against South Florida on the road last week, and now they come back home to play Ole Miss, but I believe Alabama will be ready to play their best game of the season. If anything good came out of the South Florida game it was that their no longer should be a QB controversy as Tyler Buchner went 5-14 for 34 yards against South Florida. Jalen Milroe is a dynamic player running the ball and he can throw the deep ball beautifully and gives Alabama the best shot to win here.  Ole Miss defense is just not doing anything for me here. They gave up over 500 yards to Georgia Tech last week and a misleading cover, and they struggled with Tulane with a back up QB, but still won and covered the game so we are coming with a nice buy low sell high situation and we have Nick Saban with extra motivation. |
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09-23-23 | Auburn +9 v. Texas A&M | 10-27 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Auburn +8.5 3.3% play I know Auburn is a bit banged up, but that is why this spread is getting up above 8 points. They’ll have their QB’s who both offer different strengths with Thorne and Ashford. I think Auburn is a difficult team to defend and I think this number is too large, while Auburn has played well, and are stout on defense. I think the Aggies could struggle in what should be a one possession game, which has been historically the way Jimbo likes to coach.  Hugh Freeze is a great coach as a dog including 16-6 ATS as an away dog, and I think that will continue at Auburn. We don’t really know much about Auburn as they brought in a lot of transfers, and have yet to show their identity other than the fact that they are a run first team still. Their stats are better against similar competition and I can’t help but think Hugh Freeze has saved a little something for his return to the SEC.  A lot of experts are discounting Auburn’s struggles against Cal, but they did win the game, while A&M gave up 48 points in a loss to Miami. Why aren’t we making a big deal about that loss? Cal has looked very good early on and their statistical profile is actually similar to Miami. I am just not so sure how good of a coach Jimbo Fisher is at this point and he is surely not one to get margin in a game. We hear the hype around A&M every year, and every year they disappoint. Bobby Petrino has taken over the offense, which is a good thing for the Aggies, but this is a big test against a defense that has been solid ranking 10th in QB rating defense, 20th in ypp defense. |
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09-23-23 | Army +13 v. Syracuse | 16-29 | Push | 0 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Army +13 2.2% play Syracuse has a massive look ahead to Clemson next week and they have a really poor sandwich spot here facing Army after they impressed many a week ago against Purdue, but after last night I really am not impressed with Purdue and Syracuse benefitted from 4 Purdue turnovers a week ago. Syracuse is a bit over value in my opinion because they are 3-0 SU & ATS, but have faced two of the worst teams in FBS/FCS. Army meanwhile flying under the radar and have a very strong defense. They are a very troubling team to prepare for, and look to be throwing the ball more this year, but overall will slow this game down. Army dominated UTSA as a dog a week ago, and love playing service academies in this role |
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09-22-23 | Boise State v. San Diego State +6.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
San Diego State +7 3.3% play SD State value here is a home dog after a brutal start of the season due to the tough schedule they have played *UCLA, Oregon State, and a very good MAC Ohio team. They welcome in Boise State to kick off the Mountain West season, and really what is Boise State at this point? I just have not been impressed. They are a one dimensional offense led by Taylen Green who is prone to interceptions and has not played well at all on the road. Boise State's defense has not looked good and have been deceptively bad. San Diego State will look to revenge last year's loss and I think they'll have a chance to pull the outright upset.  |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
PATRIOTS +3 5.5% MAX NFL POD |
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09-17-23 | Bears +2.5 v. Bucs | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 70 h 46 m | Show | |
Bears +3 -120 3.5% play |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 28 m | Show | |
Bengals -3 -115 3% play |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6.5 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 10 m | Show | |
 Florida +7 -123 3% / Florida +205 0.3% play Joe Milton, the Tennessee QB is not someone I want to back on the road at night in the SEC as a favorite. Florida line value here after they looked awful in week 1 opener at Utah, a very tough place to play. This is a huge game for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators who rarely are home under dogs. I expect they will show up here. Graham Mertz actually did not look terrible at Utah they just really struggled in the red zone as he went 21-44, 333 yards passing. Florida has had two weeks to think about that loss which they took out on McNeese State last week, but their season really starts here, and I think Tennessee is getting a little too much credit for what they did last year, and they have yet to be tested in 2023. |
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09-16-23 | Minnesota +7.5 v. North Carolina | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 23 m | Show | |
Minnesota +7.5 2.2% play After game 1 it looked like North Carolina’s defense was drastically improved, but they had all off season to prepare for South Carolina, a team that was unable to run the ball last week against Furman with 39 rushes for barley 100 yards, while North Carolina’s defense showed up like they always do against App STate, and got torched to the tune of 219 yards rushing and 275 passing pulling off the win over App State in double OT. Now they have another challenging opponent with PJ Fleck rowing down to North Carolina to give North Carolina a headache. I think Minnesota can control this game with their running game, and their defense is just good enough to keep North Carolina in check. The Big Ten has also really owned the ACC winning 58% of the games by an average of 4.3 points per game, while NOrth Carolina has a 9-12 record vs. Big Ten. Since 2017 the Big Ten is 23-10 with a margin over 7 points per game. |
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09-16-23 | Kansas State v. Missouri +4 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 10 m | Show | |
Missouri +4 2.2% play |
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09-15-23 | Army +9 v. UTSA | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
Army +9 2.2% play We have a low total here of 44, and what seems to be an overrated UTSA team going up agianst an Army team who is not getting much respect after they lost their opening game to Louisian Monroe after leading by 10 late. Army wants revenge for their 41-38 loss last year at home where they were 2 point dogs. Army now goes on the road to the state of Texas where they always play well because of the number of alumni in the state of Texas and I believe they will play hard in this game. UTSA has experience, but QB Frank Harris is not 100% with a toe injury, and they have 3 other OL that are banged up as well. Army well rested after their 57-0 victory a week ago. If they can clean up the turnovers, they will cover this spread. |
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09-14-23 | Navy +14 v. Memphis | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Navy +14 2.2% play |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
Patriots +4 3.3% play |
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09-10-23 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rams +5 2.2% play |
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09-10-23 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Chargers | 36-34 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Dolphins +3.5 -120 2.5% play |
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09-10-23 | Titans +3 v. Saints | 15-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
Titans +3 3.3% play |
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09-10-23 | Jaguars v. Colts +4.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Colts +4.5 2.2% play |
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09-09-23 | Temple +8.5 v. Rutgers | 7-36 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
Temple +8.5 2.2% play My formulas and algorithim like Temple here at +8.5, and this is a team that is on my buy list this season. EJ Warmer is a quality QB, and Temple return 16 starters. These two schools are relatively close by and this game means a lot more to Temple while Rutgers is in a bit of a sandwich game sitting fat and happy after dominating Northwestern in their Big 10 opener, and they have another P5 opponent on deck. |
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09-09-23 | Eastern Michigan +20.5 v. Minnesota | 6-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan +20.5 2.2% play |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama -7 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Alabama -7 3.3% play Nick Saban first two weeks of the season is 19-9 ATS, and with a cup cake the first week you bet he’s been planning for this game all off season. This is a very low spread for Alabama who I feel will have something to prove against what is supposed to be an up and coming Texas team, a team that took Alabama to the brink a year ago. I’m just not a buyer on Ewers at QB for Texas. I think he’s going to have a bad game. Texas was aided a season ago by 15 Alabama turnovers, which were a hidden 100 yards, and I don’t see that happening again. |
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09-09-23 | UTEP v. Northwestern +1 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
Northwestern +1 2.2% play |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska +3 v. Colorado | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 59 m | Show | |
Nebraska +3 3.3% play Matt Rhule as an underdog is a buy spot in college football. I believe he will have his defense well prepared for the now super hyped Colorado team, which now has to play with a bit of pressure now that they are ranked after defeating TCU on the road a week ago. Nebraska meanwhile went toe to toe and should have beaten Minnesota last week as a 7 point dog and out performed their expectation. I expect Nebraska to be able to run the ball and control this game, and play much better defense thant TCU who lost a ton of players from last year's CFB Playoff team. |
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09-09-23 | Ball State +42 v. Georgia | 3-45 | Push | 0 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
Ball State +42 1.1% Free Play Georgia has the SEC opener on deck, and last week was their home opener so I really have question their motivation to run it up here as their main focus is winning the National Championship for a 3rd consecutive year. This is a ton of points, and Ball State had a misleading final against Kentucky. I look for them to hang within the number. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Florida State +2 2.2% play |
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09-02-23 | California -6 v. North Texas | 58-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Cal -6 2.2% play Another game I really don’t buy into the line move. What do we really know about North Texas, who has a new coaching staff to warrant a 3 point line move against a Power 5 Football program led by a veteran coach in Justin Wilcox. What do we really know about Cal who will have 50 new players on their roster and new offensive scheme?. Now this line is under a TD for the past few days and down to -6, I’m a buyer. Â
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09-02-23 | Fresno State v. Purdue -3.5 | 39-35 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Pudue -3.5 2.2% play I don’t really understand the 2.5 line move form 6 open here. What do we really know about these two teams? There are tons of transfers on the Purdue side both teams will work in a new transfer QB, and I think Purdue has the better of the two in Hudson Card from Texas who just has more experience than MIke Keene form UCF. Fresno was a below average team without Jake Haener at QB, and they will also lose their top WR and RB, while Purdue is breaking in a new HC in Ryan Walters the defensive coordinator from Illinois. I like the hires (Graham Harrell OC) and the work they did in the transfer portal, and the line move of 2.5 with Purdue being at home where they typically have an advantage. |
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09-02-23 | Northern Illinois v. Boston College -8 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Boston College -8 2.2% play This is another situation of a line move I don’t agree with moving from 10.5 at open to -8. Boston College has a lot to prove this year, and I think it starts in week 1. Jeff Hafley will surely be on the hot seat if they don’t play better than expectations. Hafley was one of those coachest that a lot of sharp bettors wanted to back the past few years and people have definitely stopped drinking the kool-aid, but that is the exact time I want to jump in. There is reason for optimism with this BC offense as their offensive line has improved and returns a total of 127 starts. We saw Emmett Morehead take control of the team over the last 4 games and played quite well at time. The receivers are athletic and have talent to help their QB against a NIU secondary that will be vulnerable this year. |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah -5 | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Utah -5 2.2% play The line opened 9 or 9.5, and has dropped since the news broke of Cam Rising being out, and now you are seeing this # tick back up with all the Florida +9 trying to hedge out and get a nice middle at a TD. Personally, I don't think any one player is worth this many points, and when you factor in Bryson Barnes experience in big moments when Rising has been out I think he is more than capable of playing well. The team has also been practicing with Barnes and were probably pretty aware he was going to get the start. I think Florida is a bit over rated again, and I have serious questions about them going on the road to face a tough Utah team at elevation to open the season with Graham Mertz as their QB. Utah also will have revenge on their mind after Florida upset them a season ago. Utah returns 9 defensive starters and have a very good home field advantage. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 323 h 36 m | Show |
Chiefs +3 -125 buy 1/2 point |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 40 m | Show |
Chiefs -120 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-29-23 | 49ers +3 v. Eagles | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
49ers +3 3.5% play at -115 |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Cowboys +4 2.2% play I think the Cowboys will be able to move the ball on the 49ers. We saw it quite a bit last week with the Seahawks a week ago. This is also a fade of Brock Purdy who is getting far too much credit in my opinion. He's going to be in a game here and he made some horrific throws against Seattle that he completely got away with, which I don't think will happen against the Cowboys who ranked #1 in defensive TO%. Cowboys also lost to this team at home in the playoffs last year and would like nothing more than to return the favor. 49ers have faced a weaker schedule across the board, and they don't necessarily have a great home field advantage. Cowboys have significant advantages in net 3rd down %, net red zone TD %, special teams DVOA, QB experience.  |
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01-22-23 | Bengals +6 v. Bills | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Bengals +6 3.3% play I just don't see how this is not a close score. The Bengals lost 1 game all season by more than a TD and it was against the Browns in a weird game. I understand they have some serious issues on the OL, but I think that is getting over blown by the media. Joe Burrow is used to playing with a poor OL to begin with. His receivers should have a huge advantage against this secondary. Buffalo against playoff teams this year have not won by more than 4 points.  They 4-2 vs. playoff teams and their wins have come by 3, 3, 3, and 4 points, while they lost by 3 and lost by 2. I think the Bengals have something to prove and would not be shocked if they pull an upset here. |
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01-15-23 | Giants +3 v. Vikings | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
Giants +3 -115 5.5% NFL POD |
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01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Jaguars +3 -125 3.5% play |
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01-09-23 | TCU +14 v. Georgia | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
TCU +14 2.2% play |
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01-08-23 | Lions +5 v. Packers | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions +5 2.2% play |
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01-08-23 | Rams +6 v. Seahawks | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rams +6 2.2% play |
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01-08-23 | Patriots +7.5 v. Bills | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Patriots +7.5 3.3% play |
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01-07-23 | Titans +6.5 v. Jaguars | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Titans +7 -120 3% play |
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01-02-23 | Mississippi State -3 v. Illinois | 19-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Miss State -3 3.3% play Illinois was a very nice story this year, but they lose their star DC Ryan Walters to Purdue coaching job, and a bunch of opt outs followed including their main offensive weapon, Chase Brown. Miss State is obviously going to play with a bunch of passion here to honor Mike Leach, and I think they have some advantages. Illinois ranked #1 in pass defense, but it came against an average 87th ranked pass offense. The three occasions they faced pass first offenses, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan State they lost all 3 of those games. Those 3 teams don't have the defense that Miss State has, which ranks 49th, against an average opponent 48th. Purdue was the best one and they rank 78th in ypp vs. 76 opponents. Miss State went 2-2 vs. top 30 pass defenses, but the two losses were against Alabama and Georgia arguably the top 2 teams in the country. Miss State the deeper team who I believe will come with more effort and really shut down this Illinois offense, and create some turnovers. Illinois 73rd in % of TO's per possession, and Miss state 50th on the defensive side. Illinois faced just 3 teams in the top 52 in defensive TO%, and had 7 turnovers in those games, only Iowa also had a top pass defense, and while Illinois won they only put up 9 points. Lastly, Miss State ranked 4th in special teams while Illinois ranked 75th another big advantage here for this game. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings +3.5 v. Packers | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Vikings +3.5 -115 2.5% play |
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01-01-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Bucs -3 -125 5.5% NFL POD |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State +6 v. Georgia | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
Ohio State +6 2.2% play |
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12-31-22 | TCU +8.5 v. Michigan | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
TCU +8 2.2% PLAY Both offenses will have success today, but they both play at a slower pace and I do believe this total is pretty high, and spot on for this game.  Michigan’s defense ranked #2 in ypp has gotten there playing a very weak average opponent offense of 87th. The last two years they have only faced 6 top 50 offenses and their defense allowed 27.5ppg in those games. TCU ranks 18th in ypp and their offense is very much legit ranking top 25 in rushing ypc but also QB rating. Not many Big Ten offenses are going to come at you the way TCU does. TCU ranks 5th in explosive offense and I believe there will be opportunities on big plays down field. TCU has 3 WR that are 6’4 or taller, while Michigan’s starting CB’s are 5’10 and 6’0. Michigan should be able to run the ball against TCU’s defense, and should get explosives here as TCU ranks 99th in explosive defense, but I’m not going to overreact to what Michigan did against Ohio State as they rank 100th in explosive plays. When TCU played the most comparable offense, Texas, TCU had their best defensive effort on the road as a 7 point dog holding the very talented Texas backs to 1.27 ypc. It appears Michigan has a much more dominant advantage in this game by the #’s, but where they have the significant advantages (defense) it has come against significantly less competition. TCU’s defense which ranks 45th in ypc has face an average opponent offense of 58th, which is 30 spots better on average. IF TCU’s defense faced 87th ranked offense on average, how much better would their defense be? This game is going to come down to stopping Donovan Edwards, and a mobile JJ McCarthy, and forcing JJ MCCarthy to beat them. McCarthy did it against Ohio State on a couple of long plays, but can he do that again? I’ve gone against TCU many times this year and they are in the role they like to be in as dogs playing with a chip on their shoulder and emulating their QB Max Duggan. There were several plays in the Ohio State game that Michigan got lucky, and I just can’t get over the fact that this is driving this number up a bit giving Michigan far too much credit. This is not the first time Sonny Dykes is facing off against Jim Harbough. 2018, SMU’s 106th ranked offense at the time went to Michigan as a 37 point dog against Michigan’s #4 defense. They put up 3 TD’s in the game and were only -115 total yards in the game. 2007-09 Dykes was the OC at Arizona and all 3 match ups with Stanford were decided by 5 points or less with the last team scoring 43 points in 2009. |
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12-31-22 | Kansas State v. Alabama -7 | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Alabama -7 3.3% play We need to address the monkey in the room that is transfer portal and opt outs. Alabama some how has gottent heir big name players to play in this game, which is amazin for college football. I share NIck Saban's opinion on the NIL, transfer portal, and opt outs. Finish the season with you team. I'm not sure what this is teaching our youth these days, but that's a conversation for another day. I love that the players that are here have bought into Alabama's HC and culture. The players that left don't seem to be the top tier players that were coachable and fit in with what Saban wanted to do either, which is the reason they are transfering away from Alabama. Aabama has the #4 ranked ypp defense, and Kansas State has struggled against top 25 defenses. This season they went 1-2 scoring 10, 10, and 27 points in those games with their lone win coming in a 10-9 victory over an offensively challenged Iowa State team. Even with 12 scholarship players leaving via transfer portal this is a loaded team. Even if some of the regular starters sit in the second half the talent gap is there. Kansas State usually enjoys a coaching edge, but not in this game. Alabama will have their Heisman QB Bryce Young in this game and I could argue this team wants to make a statement. They were left out of the college football playoff for a team that got beat by Kansas State. I was in the minority when I felt like Alabama should have made the jump. Their only two losses were on the final play of the game in two road games. This game being played in New Oreans will have an Alabama crowd edge and I think Alabama dominates and creates some momentum into 2023. |
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12-30-22 | Wyoming +2.5 v. Ohio | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Wyoming +3 -120 3% play Ohio, a completely different team without their QB. CJ Harris took over and it's very clear and evident he can not move the ball consistently through the air making the team one dimensional. Craig Bohl and the Wyoming defense which ranks 43rd in epa pass defense will be able to stack the box and slow this Ohio offense down. On the flip side we are getting value here with Wyoming who without some of their RB's, but if there is one position I'd like a team to lose an opt out it is RB. They still have their QB Andrew Peasley who is also a runner, and Ohio which ranks 87th against the run, and 112th in epa pass defense will allow Wyoming to control the game. The Cowboys are coming off a 30-0 loss at Fresno State last month to end the regular season. I'm so thankful that we got a bowl opportunity and for us to get this bad taste out of our mouth and play better," Wyoming coach Craig Bohl said after the loss to Fresno State. He also goes up against his former OC at North Dakota State Tim Albin who is coaching in his first bowl game. Huge edge in coaching to Bohl here, which could make all the difference. |
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12-28-22 | Ole Miss -3.5 v. Texas Tech | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Ole Miss -3.5 3.3% play All I’ve heard is that Texas Tech is the more motivated team, and Ole Miss isn’t motivated, but this Ole Miss team did not have any opt outs, and will be full go for this game. Ole Miss is the more talented team they were +1 ypp compared to Tech -0.8 ypp. Ole Miss is a pretty easy team to handicap to win they have to run and stop the run. In their wins they are +1 ypc, and in their losses they give up +1 ypc. Texas Tech is a pass first team ranked 83rd in ypc, and their defense ranks 95th. Tech has really struggled vs top rushing teams and particular teams with a mobile QB, which Ole Miss has. They lost 28-37 to Kansas State, Adrian Martinez had 171 rushing yards, 31-41 to Oklahoma State and gave up 56 rushing yards to Spencer Sanders, lost 24-34 to TCU, they beat Kansas, but Kansas was without their starting QB Jalon Daniels. Expect Jaxon Dart to have a good game here. Texas Tech has been a trendy bet for many people and they have rewarded going 7-5 ATS, but I think this is still a major step up against an SEC program that is motivated to play in this game. Tech needs to be able to throw the ball and on the surface it looks like they may be able to, but Ole Miss pass rush which ranks 26th should give Tech some issues here. Tech ranks 81st in protecting the QB, and they haven’t faced a top 60 pass rush. This could be an issue when you look at the fact that Tech is 111th in first down offense. Ole Miss 62nd in epa pass defense, and Tech just 1-4 vs. top 70 epa pass defenses on the year. Ole Mis closest opponent to Texas Tech was Texas A&M who they beat on the road as a -3 favorite.  A&M’s #s are a bit better than Tech and I just feel like we are getting value with Ole Miss as a small favorite.   |
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12-28-22 | Central Florida +3.5 v. Duke | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
UCF +3.5 2.2% PLAY I have my concerns about Plumlee being 100% healthy for this one according to many out there he may not be, but I think there has been plenty of time for him to heal up before this game. I think we are getting value here when we look at these two teams they have 2 common opponents.  UCF was a -23.5 favorite vs. Temple, and a -21 favorite vs. Georgia Tech, while Duke was a 9.5 favorite vs. Temple and a 3.5 points favorite against Georgia Tech (LOST), and UCF was a 5.5 point favorite against ACC foe, Louisville.  Louisville metrically is better and would be a 2-3 point favorite on a neutral vs. Duke.  Duke, in their last game of the year was +3 vs. Wake, a very similar team to UCF by the #’s, and certainly not 6 points better than UCF.  Now, UCF does have their leading receiver, and top defensive player Baptise out for this game, but I still think there is enough talent to be in this game. First off the ACC was down this year, and maybe the reason Duke had such a successful year.  AAC in bowl games is actually 24-27 -1.2ppg vs. ACC.  Mike Elko was named coach of the year, but Gus Malzahn is very familiar with his defenses from his time at A&M when Auburn went 2-1 against them.  The key will be stopping the run, and Duke went 1-3 vs. top 50 ypp offenses this year, and 6-1 vs. teams with an average ypp offense ranking 111.4.  Duke’s defense is not this juggernaut, and UCF should have plenty of success in this game.  Dukes 21st ranked ypc defense has faced an average rushing ypc offense ranking 97th.  They only faced 3 teams in the top 80 in rushing ypc and lost all 3 games, Kansas, North Carolina, and Pitt.  Speaking of Kansas and North Carolina, they both have mobile QB’s like UCF and both Drake Maye and Jalon Daniels had 70+ yards rushing, both those teams also have bad defenses and UCF’s defense a little better.  All in all there is enough here for me to think I’m getting value on UCF  at +3.5. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
East Carolina -7 2.2% play Honestly how motivated is Coastal Carolina in this game with their head coach gone, their star QB Grayson McCall leaving via transfer portal. McCall will play here, but he won’t have his starting Center, and I don’t know, but if someone on my team was leaving and only coming to play this game to increase his stock against a poor defense I don’t know if I’m going to play my heart out. With that said I feel more confident stating that East Carolina who is looking for their first bowl win under Mike Houston will be motivated. Coastal NO SHOWED in their last two games against James Madison and Troy, and it’s very possible the same happens here without their head coach. East Carolina comes from the better conference as the AAC is 40-7 vs. the Sun Belt +14.1ppg all time. I think East Carolina will be able to put up a lot of points and don’t really know how Coastal will stop this balanced offense that ranks top 50 in both rushing and passing offense. |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis -7 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis -7 -115 2.5% play Memphis has lost close games to the good teams on the schedule and beat up on some of the bad teams. Utah State was -0.8 ypp differential this season, while Mmephis was +0.1. Memphis went 4-1 vs. teams with a -0.2 YPP or more winning those games by 16, 21, 12, and 24 while losing on the road to Miss State. They also went 4-1 vs. non top 80 offenses, and Utah State ranks 103rd in ypp offense, and they are a run first offense which will be without their top 2 runnig backs, while Memphis is 24th in stopping the run. Utah State will hae to pass the ball here, but they rank 88th in QB rating, 116th in epa passing offense, and only 48% in red zone TD conversions -17.37% differential. Utah State also has had a massive turnover issue ranking 115th on offense and 114th on defense. Utah State has not faced many top passing offense, but they lost both by double digits. Memphis ranks 48th in QB rating, and should be able to move the ball here. They rank 42nd in success rate, and I think they'll have enough success to win and cover the #. The big question is if they are motivated, as they get to go back to play on SMU's field, a game they lost 31-34 to close out the season. I think they'd love to close out the season with a win here to build momentum for next season. |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts +3.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Colts +3.5 2.2% plau |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State +4 v. Bowling Green | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
New Mexico State +3.5 3.3% play Both of these teams are lucky to be in a bowl, but it’s more surprising that New Mexico State is here, and you have to give Jerry Kill credit. Kill is also 16-10-1 ATS vs. the MAC over his career. New Mexico State ranks 100th in ypp vs. an average opp defense ranking 65.1, while Bowling Green is 108th vs. 65.5. Pretty even, despite New Mexico State running ball 60%, and Bowling Green throwing 46%. These are two different style offenses, but I give the edge to New Mexico State who really put up some points down the stretch and have some confidence coming into this game. Bowling Green’s defense ranks 84th in ypp and that’s against an average opponent offense ranking 82. While New Mexico State ranks 43rd, vs. a 92.5. New Mexico’s defensive strength is the pass defense, which is what Bowling Green likes to do. New Mexico State played Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while Bowling Green played UCLA and Miss State so both had challenging schedules. The MAC has played well so far in bowls, but I’m not trusting them here as a favorite in what should be a very tight game. New Mexico State has a big edge in finishing drives and Bowling Green really struggles in red zone defense. New Mexico State +8.4% on the season in red zone TD%, while Bowling Green is -14.48%. Both teams player slower tempo making points more valuable, and I think New Mexico who average 5.5 ypc in wins, and 3.39 ypc will be able to run the ball against Bowling Green who ranked 79th in epa run defense, against a weak epa run offense schedule ranking 84th. Bowling Green beat two bowl teams all year, and both by single possessions, and both games have huge asterisks. Marshall win by 3 they were +3 TO margin and also got Marshall the week after they upset Notre Dame. Toledo they beat 42-35, while Toledo was resting up for the MAC Championship and had nothing to play for. New Mexico State did not have many impressive wins either, but I like the fact that they closed their season winning 5 of 6 and scored 49+ points in 3 of the last 4. Jerry Kill is the better coach and would like to get a bowl win. |
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12-25-22 | Packers v. Dolphins -3 | 26-20 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
Dolphins -3 2.5% play |
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12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette +7 | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
Lafayette +7 2.2% play I certainly do not trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game he’s 2-7 ATS, but for some reason they are favored by more than a TD.  Houston has the better YPP differential, but vs. a weaker schedule, and the Sun Belt has been performing well in bowl season.  Houston will have Nathaniel Dell for the bowl game at WR, but how much effort, or how much of the game is he going to play?  Lafayette has some opt outs as well, but Houston’s defense has not been good all season and have given up an average of 30.6 points per game against teams outside the top 75 in yards per play.  Houston is going to give up some points here. Lafayette’s defense I think can keep them in this game.  They rank 22nd in QB rating defense, 50th in ypc allowed, and Houston has only faced 4 teams in the top 90 in QB rating defense they went 2-2 against those teams and the two wins came by 1 and 2 points.  The only time they faced a top 50 pass defense they lost at home by 3.  Lafayette has gone 0-4 against top 60 passing offenses, but 3 of those 4 losses were by 4, 3, and 6 points, with the lone blowout loss coming against a Power 5 foe in Florida State. |
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12-22-22 | Jaguars v. Jets -1.5 | 19-3 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
Jets -1.5 2.2% play |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
Air Force +3.5 2.2% play We will find out real quick who wants to be here, as it’s going to be 20 degrees with 20 mph winds in Fort Worth. One thing is for sure the service academies always get up to play Power 5 schools and bowl games. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is motivated for this game after a disappointing season going 6-6, and playing in their state of Texas at TCU’s stadium is nothing to get excited about. Dave Aranda also fired the DC and special teams coordinator, which is not ideal to be short handed going up against the triple option. To make matters worse Baylor lineman Mazzcua who started 11 games and is 330lb is in the transfer portal and will miss. Air Force had a weak schedule, and their glaring weakness is in pass coverage, but I question whether or not Baylor will be able to pass consistently in this weather and they still at the heart of it are a run first team anyway, which Air Force ranks 19th in ypc defense, and 55th in epa defense. Baylors run defense is good from a ypc perspective, but they went 1-4 when giving up 150 yards, and they 2-4 vs. top 50 rushing attacks giving up 30.33 ppg in those games and 1 of the 2 wins was by only 3 points. I really have these two teams about even, and we are getting over a field goal in a low total with bad wind that will favor Air Force’s style, and they have a far better special teams unit as well. |
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12-21-22 | South Alabama v. Western Kentucky +4 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky +4 2.2% play / Western Kentucky +160 1% bonus Western Kentucky has a defensive player opting out of the portal coming back to play, and their star QB Austin Reed opting out of transfer portal and coming back to play so this game clearly matters to Western Kentucky is the way I’m taking it. C-USA has not done great vs. the Sun Belt, but South Alabama has never won a bowl game, and we saw this style offense from Western Kentucky put 59 points up on Sun Belt App State team last year that ranked 17th in ypp. Western Kentucky will be without a couple OL, but they run this hurry up that should even things out for the defensive line. South Alabama’s defense that was elite only played an average of 80th ranked ypp, the 3 offenses they faced that were similar put up 31, 32, and then Old Dominion who is a pass first team that runs tempo put up 20. South Alabama also has to go up against a top defense as Western Kentucky’s defense is very under rated ranking 36th in ypp. South Alabama just 6, 27, and 20 points against top 50 ypp defenses. These two have a common opponent in Troy at home. South Alabama was 3 point favorite, while Western Kentucky was -5.5. Both teams lost but Western Kentucky put up 27 points, and were +55 yards +0.1 ypp, while South Alabama was -0.5ypp and -20 yards. Western Kentucky’s offense the past two years has had no problems putting up points against top defenses. I mentioned Troy this year, and App State last year, but they scored 53 on Marshall last year as well as 48 on a very good MTSU defense a season ago. I have these two teams very even, and the oddsmakers actually had Western Kentucky -2.5 on a neutral looking at the Troy spread so there is no way I can get to +4 here. I still have Western Kentucky as the better team they had a better ypp against tougher competition. |
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12-20-22 | Eastern Michigan +4.5 v. San Jose State | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan +4.5 2.2% play I think this line is just a tad inflated because there is a stigma about the MAC Conference, and San Jose State clearly has a fabulous QB in Chad Cordeiro, but the MWC is 7-8 vs. the MAC. SJSU is 1-2 vs. the MAC and when we are looking at similar teams to Eastern Michigan that San Jose State has played we look at Utah State they were +1.5 on the road and lost, SD state they were -1.5 on the road and lost. Eastern Michigan is probably between those two teams from a # perspective, but they have actually played extremely well on the road and even have a win against a PAC 12 team on the road over Arizona State. For Eastern Michigan, San Jose State is probably a slightly weaker Toledo team, a team they lost by 3 to and were a +4 home dog. I think Toledo -3 on a neutral vs. SanJOse San Jose State is going to be easy to plan for as they have a completely one dimension offense with their QB. They rank 107th in ypc vs. an opponent ypc defense ranking 87th. Eastern Michigan’s defensive strength is vs. the pass where they rank 47th in opposing QB rating, and San Jose has gone 3-4 vs. top 60 QB Rating defenses. San Jose State only turned the ball over 7 times all year, but they still somehow went 0-7 ATS to close the season. Eastern Michigan only 2 TO’s over their last 5 games. Eastern Michigan wants to establish the run, but they don’t need to completely rely on it as they have gone 3-3 vs. top 50 run defenses. They actually have better ranks passing the ball, and would do better sticking to that game plan here, but it makes them harder to prepare for in my opinion. Eastern Michigan also has a massive advantage in special teams ranking 25th, while San Jose State ranks 131st. |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs +3.5 | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Bucs +3.5 1.1% free play |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears +9 | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Bears +9 2.2% play |
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12-18-22 | Lions v. Jets -1 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
JETS -1 5.5% max nfl pod |
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12-17-22 | BYU +4.5 v. SMU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
BYU + 4.5 2.2% play BYU should be able to run the ball in this game with SMU just being absolutely horrible at stopping the run ranking 123rd in the county this year. BYU will likely be without their starting QB Jalen Hall, but I think if anything that puts a huge question mark for preparation for SMU coaching staff, which has struggled on defense all season long. BYU key has been running the ball the last two years they average +1 ypc in their wins and when going up against a run defense 90th or worse they are 11-0 score 30+ points in 9 of those games and I’m sure if I look back further that trend continues. SMU went just 1-3 this season with rushing offense ranking in the top 40, and gave up 63 points to Houston who ranks 42nd. If SMU can just magically stop the run then this play is in big trouble, cut I don’t think they can. SMU’s offense should be able to score points here too, but they will be without their top receiver in Rice, and that loss is a big deal here. The Mountain West is also 6-2 +12.1 points per game vs. AAC in bowl games. The weather is going to be in the low 30’s and this game will be played at elevation, which is something that benefits BYU players as well. |
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12-17-22 | Fresno State -4 v. Washington State | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Fresno -4 2.2% play  Fresno State’s Jake Haener gets up for these games against P5, something about playing with a chip on his shoulder. Washington State will be without 3 of their top 4 WR, both coordinators, and typically this style offense does not do well with a long break. Fresno State just played a mobile QB when they faced Fresno State in the Championship, and they dominated winning and avenging their only loss to a team that ranked top 50 in run and pass defense. Washington State ranks 41st in epa run defense and 45th in epa pass defense, but they’ll be without several defensive starters here as well. When they have had to face a top passing offense they have gone 0-4 giving up 36.5 ppg, while facing a top pass defense they only managed 10 points and 14 points and Fresno has both. Fresno has gotten hose results from facing G5 teams, but this team has more than hold their own stepping up to play the power 5, and this being a bowl game against a depleted Washington State team they’ll be motivated to win by a TD or more. |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB -10.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
UAB -11 2.2% PLAY First of all since 2018 in group of 5 vs. group of 5 bowl games, the team that had at least 0.5 ypp differential went 28-12 ATS. UAB +1.1, while Miami Ohio -0.7. In 2018 UAB vs. Northern Illinois a really similar match up with Northern Illinois -0.3, and UAB +1.1, and UAB won 37-13. C-USA has also been the far better conference going 54-39 all time vs. the MAC. I have major concerns about Miami Ohio in this game and how they are going to move the football. Aveon Smith took over for Brett Gabbert at QB, and he really is just a running QB, as he is completing just 48% of his passes for a 9/5 TD/INT ratio. That’s something UAB can game plan for in my opinion and Miami Ohio ranks 115th in ypp, UAB’s defense is down this year, but that’s because the have faced on average 50th rank ypp offense. There is proof it’s really about the C-USA offenses getting better, because this defense over the past 4 years faced an average YPP offense ranking 91st, 87th, 81st, 68th, and now 50th. Here they are facing a bad offense UAB has won all of their games by double digits. UAB will be plenty motivated here as they are playing hard for Bryan Vincent in his last game. UAB hired Trent Dilfer, but it’s not gone unnoticed that the players had an open letter to administration in support of Vincent. I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas here, and their offense ranks 12th in ypp with a really balanced attack ranking 8th in epa run offense with the nations leading rusher McBride, and 20th epa passing offense. Miami Ohio’s defense is solid with a strength against the run, but the more we look at them they have faced just two teams in the top 60 in yards per play, Cincinnati and Ohio and they lost 17-38, and 21-37 and they were +2 TO margin in those games. I like UAB’s offense to be able to put up plenty of points in this game. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Seahawks +3.5 3%Â |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Bucs +3.5 3.3% play |
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12-11-22 | Panthers +4 v. Seahawks | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Panthers +4 2.2% play |
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12-11-22 | Browns +6 v. Bengals | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Browns +6 2.2% play Bengals are 26th in EPA run defense, and are 2-4 vs. top 10 rushing offenses. Browns rank 6th in epa run offense, and Watson should look a lot better in his second start. Bengals off a huge win against the Chiefs to solidify their playoff run last year. This is a bit of a let down spot, while the Browns probably feel like they still have a shot to make the playoffs and have owned the Bengals winning 8 of their last 9. I think this divisional game comes down to a field goal. |
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