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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-11-10 | BYU v. Air Force -1 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
AFA -1 (3.3 Dime OE play)
Really like Air Force as just 22% of the public is on them and the line moved from +1 to -1. This is a team that was really successful last year and although they lost some players they return the talented ones on offense that should continue to be able to pound teams with the run. BYU lost their running back and star QB and seem to not have an identity with a 2 QB system. Jake Heaps seems to be the guy in the near future, but this is the perfect time for Air Force. BYU will struggle facing them this early as they do not have a lot of time to prepare for this style of spread offense with the triple option. Especially since BYU breaks in some new line backers and Air Force is fresh this early and probably have an extra step. Tim Jefferson is coming off 179 passing yards and they gained 479 on the ground a week ago. That will give something for BYU to think of before they try to only stop the run. This is a special game for Air Force and I think the line movement shows that they are going to win it and my research backs that up. Don't forget Air Force is solid on defense and only lost to a TCU team by 3 poitns at home a year ago. |
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09-11-10 | Kent State +17.5 v. Boston College | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Kent State +17.5 (2.2 Dime Play)
Kent State has an under rated defense and can sneak up on some teams this year. I know they lost 34-7 here a year ago when the spread was 21, but why is the spread now 17? Boston College has a good defense especially in their linebackers and they have a stud at running back in Montel Harris, but Kent state has possible all conference performers at each level with MOnte Simmons at end, Mixon at Linebacker and Lainhart at safety. Both of these teams are going to be running the ball a lot in this game. Kent State returns their star RB Eugene Jarvis who looked like his old self last week when the Kent state team ran the ball 39 times. Look for much of the same here and the same on the BC side with Montel Harris being the answer for BC as they try to decide on a QB. BC also has the look ahead game with Vtech and Notre Dame and probably won't be looking at Kent State as a threat, but this will be closer than many think. |
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09-10-10 | Texas-El Paso v. Houston -20 | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Houston -20 (2.5 Dime LNF)
Houston wants revenge here after being #12 and losing at UTEP a year ago. On offense Houston will do whatever it wants here tonight behind Keenum a heisman candidate. UTEP was able to win with the running game last year with Donald Bruckram, but a couple things to take into consider. Bruckram did not play week 1 so he'll be rusty and not as confident as he had a bruised knee and was carried off the practice field. Also add in Houston getting one of their star linebackers back in Matt Nicholson who is excellent against the rush. Add in UTEP's star QB Vittatoe had offseason shoulder surgery and despite putting up decent numbers he faced a FCS defense in Pine Bluff and he looked out of rhythm at times. It could be his shoulder, but either way he's not the same QB as a year ago when UTEP won against Houston. Houston gets revenge here. |
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09-09-10 | Minnesota Vikings +6 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Vikings +6 @ BODOG (3.3 Dime Play)
I really like the Vikings to pay their revenge here tonight. They did a good job against the Vikings and should be the team with the Super Bowl ring. They basically out gained the Vikings 2 to 1 and I think they will be able to move the ball effectively here tonight. Saints will have a lot on offense as they are tough to beat in their dome and you got the factor of home teams are 10-0 in their first game coming off a super bowl victory in the last ten years. However, I see this game living up to the hype and being a quality game and close. Vikings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and had the 160 yards rushing in last years NFC Championship game. |
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09-09-10 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Miss State +2 (4.4 Dime POD)Mullen's offense is now fully installed and we already saw the benefits against Marshall where they won 49-7 in week 1. They split two QB's with different talents and have an above average receiving corp that will give Auburn lots of troubles. Don't get me wrong Cameron Newton appears to be the real deal, but if you remember Mullen recruited him when he was at Florida and knows a lot about the dual threat QB that broke the rushing record for a single game by a QB for Auburn last week. That's not why Auburn doesn't cover it will be their inability to play defense. Add in the significant improvement from Miss State's offense with Chad Bumphis, Brandon HEavens and Leon Berry catchign passes and I'm confident this team is going to shock some viewers. I think Miss State is strong up front and they have some leaders in the linebacking corps that could stop the run of Newton.
Auburn gave up 26 points to Arkansas State. Arkansas State one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt last year only scored more than 26 points three times all of last year against three SUn Belt opponents in Troy Flint, and North Texas. The big problem is in the passing game which is now the Miss State's strength of the passing game. The combo of Tyler Russell and Chris Relf threw for 372 yards against Marshall and completed 20-25 passes. Expect much of the same at home and I expect Cameron Newton to get rattled early in the largest home crowd the Bulldogs will ever have. YOu'll hear plenty of cowbells. |
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09-05-10 | Tulsa v. East Carolina +7 | Top | 49-51 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
ECU +7.5 @ 5dimes (3.5 Dime EB play)
I like this match up for EAst Carolina at home as under dogs despite having just 2 returners to their defense that led the the conference a year ago. The returners are int he secondary including Emanuel Davis an All C-USA performer. This will allow ECU to blitz and play man coverage which will fall into the weakness of Tulsa as Kinne was sacked far too often a year ago. Kinne threw 2 interceptiosn and had a fumble against EAst Carolina a year ago. He has weapons to put up points, but East Carolina is still a defensive minded team with Ruffin McNeill taking over. The difference....East Carolina starts the Boston College transfer Dominique Davis who is hungry. He's grown up since he last started a game for BC playing in juco. Look for him to have a great day on this suspect Tulsa defense. He's got plenty of options in the spread including the all time Pirate receiver Dominique Davis who caught 83 balls a year ago. This is a new system, but I think Tulsa is the perfect opponent to gain confidence on. East Carolina returns 3 offensive linemen who were starters and are now seniors. I think they have a major advantage up front which is where the games are won. I look for this to be a bit of a shoot out with the Pirates having a chance at home to win the game out right. |
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09-04-10 | Oregon State +13.5 v. TCU | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Oregon State +13 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Really like this play. I think the Rodgers brothers are explosive enough to give TCU some serious problems especially on a fast track like Cowboy Stadium.. If you don't know the Rodgers brothers and you should by now watch tonight's game. ORegon State also has a physical line led by Phillip and Linnenkohl. On defense they have a strong unit up front that should stop the running game of TCU in my opinion. DT Stephen Paea is a force and has the speed to disrupt many plays. Oregon State allowed just 114.4 yards per carry and the strength of schedule was a bit higher than TCU. Offensively it'll be the Rodgers brothers against a tough tCU defense but one that does have some question marks which is why I like Oregon State. TCU lost it's leading tackler, two 4 year corner backs, and Jerry Hughes their leading sacker. Ryan Katz the sophmore QB will be the question mark for Oregon STate, but with weapons like the Rodgers brothers and a solid TE in Joe Halanhuni 35 receptions a year ago 486 yards I think they'll be able to get some points on the board in what will be a relatively low close scoring game. Dalton returns but his confidence may be hurt a bit after an awful showing in the bowl game against Boise State. He faces another tough defense and I think he may throw a pick or two here. |
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09-04-10 | Connecticut +3 v. Michigan | 10-30 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Uconn +3 (3.3 Dime Oddsline Error Play)
So everyone wants you to buy into the hype of the largest crowd +112,000 ever in MIchigans new stadium, but I"m not this is still a very very bad team with a lot of holes and question marks that has gone just 8-16 under Rich Rodriguez. QB? Who will it be.. Rodriguez hasn't said but it's likely Denard Robinson who has the most talent and has been said has worked the hardest int he off season. They have talent at WR, but in my opinion not the accuracy to take advantage vs. the only glaring weakness for Uconn the secondary. Denard Robinson is the best option to runt he spread, but I think he struggles against a very strong front 7 for Uconn that returns 3 veterans at LB in which is the strength of the defense and ironically the key to stop any "option offense." Uconn has experience with it and a better coach in my opinion. This is a team that returns nearly everyone and won at baylor, notre dame, loss by 2 at Cincinnati, 4 at West Virginia and 3 at Pitt. Just in case you didn't know they are undefeated vs. the Big 10... Okay they only played Indiana twice, but Michigan a shell of their once dominating home self only beat Indiana by 3 at home. Uconn on offense will be able to do what they want on the groudn with Toddman who will be the top RB in the Big East.. unless the USC transfer lives up to his potential. Shoemate who will take on what Toddman's role was last year behind Andre Dixon could be better than Toddman who was better than Dixon. I believe in Zach Frazer after the Notre Dame game a year ago and think he's got the compusure to beat a defense that was shredded in 2009 in Michigan. There have been no answers for the defense and they've moved to a 3-3-5 defense and have even moved their full back Moundrus over to play linebacker. Linebacker is not an easy position to play and I expect Uconn to take advantage despite being in an intimidating environment. |
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09-04-10 | Purdue +10.5 v. Notre Dame | 12-23 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Purdue +10.5 (2.2 Dime OE Play)
There are just too many similarities between these teams to warrant more than a 10 point favorite line for the home team. I think Notre Dame can lose this game. Why are these teams similar.. Both Qb's have limited experience and are both coming off ACL injuries with lots of potential and have weapons in receivers. Notre Dame has Malcolm Floyd and Purdue has Keith Smith the best WR in the Big Ten. To me this the combo of Marve/Smith is better than Crist/Floyd. Both weaknesses for this team is the secondary and both teams have 3 new offensive lineman. However, Notre Dame brand new system and Crist will have a good day but overall the front 7 of Purdue has some depth and experience. Key to why Purdue stays int his game will bet he best player on defense overall in this game in Ryan Kerrigan (13 sacks a year ago). Look for him to get a couple of hits on Crist who hasn't been hit in practice at all. This will be scary because Kerrigan should dominate against an offensive line that has three newbies for Notre Dame. If they opt to double team that will leave one side of the O line at risk. |
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09-02-10 | Minnesota Golden Gophers v. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
MTENN +2.5 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the chances for MTSU despite not having their best player in their QB in Dasher. It looks like Kilgore will get the start and I believe he has a strong arm well capable of making the short throws to the WR which will give Minnesota a team that returns just 2 starters from last years team with 1 safety Kim Royston being out for this contest. That means brand new Linebackers and I believe they'll have some trouble stopping MTSU which had one of the better offenses a year ago. The Gophers offense will struggle enough for MTSU to have this game in hand at home in my opinion. Minnesota only scored 20 ppg and have a new offensive coordinator for the third year in a row. They are missing a lot of offensive talent and the struggles will continue as they were 113th in sacks allowed. They face a MTSU team that is strong up front with a strong pass rush ranked 6th in the nation a year ago and 2nd in tackles for a loss. Bottom line their defensive coordinator Randall Mccray knows this Gophers team as he spent 4 years at Wisconsin. Look for Weber to be under pressure for a good portion of the game. MTSU is a team that has played talented teams a year ago as they beat Maryland and played MIss STate and Clemson. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non conference games while Minnesota is 1-4. |
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02-07-10 | New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -5.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -104 | 297 h 8 m | Show |
Colts -5.5 (5.5 Dime Play)
Really I saw all I needed to this past weekend with the Colts and the Jets and the Vikings and the Saints. The Saints offense has continued to digress while Peyton and co just continue to become more and more dangerous with weapons all over the field named Garcon, Collie, Clark, and oh yeah Wayne. Don't forget to the dual half backs he's got in Addai and Brown. I just think this is all Colts all the time as the NFC is just a year or two away from catching up with the overall talent of the AFC. Let's be honest Peyton dominated the #1 coverage unit in the Jets. Sure Darelle Revis locked down Reggie Wayne but it was Peyton Manning who was able to go all over the field to his other weapons to seal this game in the 2nd half. They even had the running game off the draw and stretch play working to perfection. I watched every single Jets game and I knew they had holes in their defense that did not show up on the stat sheet, but never did I think they would be threaded like a needle even by the best QB I have ever see play this game. Manning will make his legend a permanent one in Super Bowl 43! Drew Brees and the Saints got extremely lucky and they should send my favorite QB, Brett Favre commission if they win. The Vikings dominated the Saints on both sides of the ball and Favre was great til late. The Saints however did one thing great they got pressure on Favre and hit him more then 15 times. However, you simply won't get to Peyton Manning. Maybe early like the Jets did but he figures it out and torches you after that when he spreads things out. The Saints defense is not near what the Jets are and Peyton is the best at preparing for defenses and I expect him to score more than 30 points here. On the other side I can't see Drew Brees and company score into the 30's because of the pressure he's going to get from the outside pass rushers in Mathis and Freeney. There is not a better tandom in the NFL and Ray Edwards and Jarred Allen just did an excellent job in the last game to get to Brees. In the end it was not enough and the Vikings can thank their three best players on offense for that in Favre, Harvin and Peterson. Turnovers via fumble and interception cost that team a trip to the Super Bowl. If you watched the game you know the Saints got lucky and do not belong here and Peyton will prove it to everyone. |
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01-16-10 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | 3-20 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 59 m | Show | |
Ravens +7 buy 1/2 @ -120
Is it a coincidence that the Colts are among the worst in run defense and of the top 10 worst run defenses. Not a single one of those top 10 worst run defenses are in the playoffs right now with the exception of the Colts. The Ravens have met 6 of these teams this year and out scored them 202-57 that's an average of 33.6 to 9.5 points. They were 6-0, and add in the Colts game they were in place to win late, but lost 17-15 in a close game. The Ravens have played the Colts well before, and they have the recipe to take them down here tonight. Ray Rice is just a monster and the reason why the Ravens are a top 5 rushing team. Indy can pass the ball but the Ravens are #8 vs. the pass and played Manning and the one dimensional offense well. The Colts haven't played in a while and the Ravens have all the momentum coming off a nice win against New England in New England. This will be a new test, but I think the Ravens are up to it and Joe Flaco has three playoff games under his belt. |
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01-16-10 | Arizona Cardinals +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Cardinals +7 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
The Cardinals simply play inspirational football when they are under dogs. Now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an under dog. The Saints struggled the last quarter of the season and lost their last two games in the dome making them "beatable" The Cardinals have the ingredients to pull the upset. They have the excellent passing game that can keep pace with the Saints, and they have a pass rush with Docket as we saw last year in the playoffs that can get to Brees and really mess up what they will try to do. Bottom line the best player in the game, the player that can take the game over is on the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald is a beast we saw it in the playoffs last year. The Saints do not have a guy that can cover this guy. The Saints are a beat up team in the secondary and pulling in journey men Mike McKenzie and Chris McCalister is not going to help. There is a reason this team was 24th in the league in pass defense. Kurt Warner will eat up this secondary in a very high scoring close game. |
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01-10-10 | Green Bay Packers -1.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 45-51 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Packers -1.5 4.4 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Packers here. Aaron Rodgers is just too good and posses too many match up problems for the Cardinals with three excellent WR targets in Jordy Nelson, Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings and then add in Jermichael Finley and Rodgers should have no problem throwing the ball. Well this pass rush of the Cardinals is excellent and as we know the Packers offensive line has been suspect. That is not entirely true. The Packers have given up 7 sacks in their last 6 games and most of that success has been due to the fact that T Chad Clifton has been healthy. He's healthy today and will play so I love the protection for Aaron Rodgers. The Cardinals are dangerous and this is no question going to be an entertaining game, but even if we use the trend from last week with the two teams that played yesterday won in week 17 and in the playoffs. If that means anything the Packers should have all the confidence in the world here on Sunday. |
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01-10-10 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. New England Patriots | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Ravens +4 (3.5 Dime Play)
Make no mistake about it this is not the same Tom Brady we have seen in playoff past. He simply can't move and throw the way he used to and throw Wes Welker out of the equation and the Patriots are going to have a hard time here today in my opinion. Yes Julian Edelman is a solid replacement and if you look it will almost look like Welker, but this is the playoffs and Edelman does not have all the tools yet. Brady won't have all the confidence throwing to him all day like he does with Welker. The Patriots will get their yards, but the Ravens and Ray Rice will get more. This Patriots defense is suspect all year long and I believe it will be again here today in a 3 point win that can go either way. |
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01-09-10 | Philadelphia Eagles +4 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
Eagles +4 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
You know what many are reading into last weeks game so much because the Eagles have everything to play for. However, remember last year when the Cowboys had everything to play for at home against these Eagles and got embarassed 44-6. That was not so long ago was it. They had a major motivational advantage in that game after getting just shreaded 44-6 in a game they needed to go to the playoffs. I expect the tables to turn on them Saturday in a game they need to prove that last week meant something. The Eagles will come out and score early and steal all the momentum. Just a week or so ago the Eagles were hottest team going into the playoffs. That loss hurt a lot but Andy Reid knows how to come back from this he has done it before. It's almost as if he wanted this to happen. Each year the Eagles go into the playoffs as under dogs and each year they win some games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. In fact they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games too. It's almost as if they are where they want to be here and I don't think it's a bad place to be. The Dog in this match up is 8-3 ATS in the last 11, and the Eagles are 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog 3.5-10 points. Eagles often play better as a dog and even more so on the road as they are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 as a road dog. Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in Dallas despite their loss of the last week of the season, but believe me Dallas had all the momentum. Bottom line this will be a tight game that will come down to a field goal either way. |
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01-07-10 | Texas v. Alabama -4 | Top | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Alabama -4 (4.5 Dime POD) Under 46 (2-Dime Bonus)
Well these two teams are as even as you get on paper. Both solid offense, solid defenses, solid special teams and solid coaching. Normally in a situation like this you go with the under dog, but I just can't buy into a Texas team that has shown far more problems this year than the Tide. It just seems like that special year for Alabama and I'm a believer in that. Alabama first off has faced a stronger schedule don't let anyone kid you on that. Particularly their defense has faced a 45th ranked rushing offense while Texas #1 run defense has faced the #74 attack. It's a mirage on the surface because Alabama who is going to run the ball goes up against a very talented front, but just how talented? Texas has been tested by just three decent running teams and those three were not close to what Alabama can do with their strength. Alabama offense ranked slightly lower than Texas has faced a much much more challenging defense out of the SEC ranked #48 int he nation compared to Texas who has faced #76. And again it's the strength of the Texas offense that I can not take seriously here as they have faced an opponent with a average 76th pass defense. Maybe it is because so many Big 12 teams love to pass that the defense are under rated, but even so Texas has played only two defenses this year that are the caliber of an Alabama. Those two are Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those two games Texas I believe should have and could have easily won the game. I believe Alabama's defense is better than both of those teams and the offense may just be too. Nebraska held Texas to 13 points and sacked McCoy 9 times while Oklahoma held them to 16 points. Alabama has been tested all season by top defense and this won't be anything new to McElroy and the crew. McElroy is under rated the guy has faced six top 20 pass defenses. I think he can beat Texas under neath throwing to Marquis Maze as the Longhorn secondary full of sophomores will have their eyes on the all world talent in Julio Jones. Alabama has faced six top 27 defenses many in the area that Texas is in. They averaged 24 ppg in all six and when they faced a Kentucky team that was 18th in pass defense they put up 38 points. I can see Alabama scoring around 24 points which should be plenty to win this game. Alabama has been tested offensively too facing three opponents in the top 22 in offense and a three more in the top 50. Against the three top 22 offenses they held them to 13.67 ppg proving they can play in the big game that includes holding the Gators to 13 points in the SEC title game. Texas on the other hand has not fared well against good offenses. They faced four top 26 offenses and gave up 24 points on average including 39 to Texas A&M team. There were many QB's that beat Texas all year long making them suspect against the pass. The fear you should have if you are going to back the Longhorns is they have not faced a rushing team as good as Alabama all year long. They have not faced an offensive line as talented as Alabama that is where the difference will be. As I mentioned above against top offenses and top defenses Alabama seemed to play their best with a +10.33ppg advantage while Texas seemed to play worst scoring 14.9 and giving up 24. Bottom line is Texas won those games, but they have yet to play a team that can play offense and defense well outside Oklahoma but Oklahoma didn't have their best player on the field as he got injured in the first 5 minutes of the game. What Texas does well is throw those short range passes and I look for McCoy to get picked off a couple times once maybe by the best linebacker in college football in Rolando McClain. He's best at dropping in coverage and should have an opportunity to make big plays here. With Cody at 6'5 and 354 int he middle making Texas unable to run the ball a one dimensional team. |
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01-06-10 | Troy +3 v. Central Michigan | Top | 41-44 | Push | 0 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Troy +3 4-Dime NCAAF POD
The perception out there is that Central Michigan is better because of the best QB to ever play in the MAC will be wrapping up his career in Dan Lefevour. However, hold up just one minute. The MAC has not fared well in this game Ball State got blasted 45-13 last year and Bowling Green 63-7 the year before. Troy is another conference winner coming out of the Sun Belt so this game should be much closer and in the end I think Troy wins with their offense. The perception is that this Central MIchigan team has a good defense unlike years past, well that may be true statistically, but are they really better than Troy? A team that played two of the top scoring offenses in the country in Arkansas and Florida. Overall central Michigan faced an average offens ranked 73 while Troy took on an opponent ranked #50. Troy's secondary is terrible don't get me wrong, but they have been tested, and they are significantly under rated in their front 7. That is where you need to be good to contain Mr. Lefevour and I think Boris Lee one of the best linebackers ever to play in the Sun Belt will have a lot to say about how this defense plays. He's joined by outstanding ends in Cameron Sheffield and Brandon Lang and don't forget Bear Woods another linebacker who will be looking to keep LeFevour in check. Both teams strong special teams and talent that can take it back at any time. The other perception is Troy lost to Bowling Green and Central Mich beat them 24-10. Well that game was tied at 14 going into the 4th before Troy fell 31-17. That was the first game of the year and since then Troy has gone 9-2. That one less game may just serve them well. If you want to get technical in terms of the Sun Belt vs. the MAC we can look at the bowl games this year Middle Tenn beat C-USA Southern Miss 42-32. MAC has been known to get blown out by C-USA and MTSU took care of them as 3.5 point dogs. Troy destroyed MTSU 31-7. Ohio and Bowling Green both out of the MAC lost their bowl games as favorites. If you want to go deeper you can take North Texas a team that Troy beat 50-26 that played right with MAC Ohio in a loss 30-31, and beat MAC Ball State. From those points it appears the Sun Belt is stronger. Add in the fact that Central Michigan will have an interim coach and I think we have a solid play here with Troy. Don't think the coaching situation is that big of a deal? Just go ask Cincinnati if it played a part. Don't forget just how good this Troy offense is. Theyare ranked #3 overall and although they faced an average 78 total defense they beat them up. Central Michigan's offense is behind Troy, and the talent that they have faced defensively is not much better ranked #64. Overall Troy comes in with the stronger strength of schedule playing opponents with a win % of .480 and an opp-opp win% at .488 while Central Michigan comes in at .442 and .474 respectfully. Look for the passing attack from Levi Brown to be spectacular and for the front 7 of Troy to give LeFevour enough problems up front. |
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01-05-10 | Iowa +5.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Take Iowa +5.5 (4.4 Dime Play) Take Under 51 (1.5 Dime Play)
Clash number two of the Big 10 vs. the ACC in this years bowl games. The first time it was Wisconsin beating Miami as underdogs. Iowa who is 10-3 vs. teams with a winning record and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and non-conference games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as underdogs. While these two have not played a common opponent this year I have found a couple of connections that should make you feel good about playing the under dog. Iowa beat Wisconsin 20-10 who I mentioned took care of Miami and Miami beat Georgia Tech. Also Iowa beat Penn State who beat LSU who destroyed Georgia Tech in their bowl game last year 38-3. Georgia Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite. To beat Georgia Tech you need good linebackers, lots of discipline and time to prepare. That's exactly what Iowa possesses in this spot here. The only team that had more than a week to get ready for Georgia Tech was Miami and Miami was able to limit the Yellow Jackets to a season low 95 yards. Iowa certainly has a group of linebackers including possibly the best LB in college football in Pat Angerer. Angerer has come up with big games in big moments and was 5th in the nation in tackles. He had 14 against Penn State, 13 against Ohio State, and 16 against Minnesota. I would not be surprised if we see 20 from him tonight. Now many are saying and feeling that Iowa can not keep up with Georgia Tech, and that's why they lose, well I'm here to tell you Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as it appears. It has benefited from being on the field for long periods of times and weak competition. They have faced three out of conference teams with terrible offensive rankings in Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Miss State. All three games they gave up 30 or more points proving that Iowa's offense should be able to move the chains more than you think especially with their QB Ricky Stanzi who was 9-0 as a starter this year returning from his ankle injury. Iowa's defense has been the staple of this teams success and this will be the best defense Georgia Tech faces all year. Ranked #10 in total defense and #9 in points allowed Iowa has faced a challenging schedule that has Ohio State and Penn State. Regardless look for a low scoring game. |
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01-04-10 | Boise St v. TCU -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
TCU -7 (4.5 DIME NCAAF POD)
Ok there is no doubt in my mind that TCU plays in a far superior conference. Let's just look at the bowl games for instance. BYU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming all under dogs in their bowl games and won out right making the Mountain West Conference a solid conference. If TCU can close it out and win here tonight that would make them 5-0 in bowl games. Wyoming an 11 point under dog against a WAC Fresno State team won by a TD to open the bowl season. Utah and BYU took care of two Pac-10 teams and Air Force beat and flat out dominated the best offensive team in the country statistically. TCU really wants to join that club here tonight. Add in the fact that the other WAC team playing in a bowl game lost to SMU by 35 points as 11 point favorites. That's right Nevada the team that challenged Boise a little lost by 35 points and they were big favorites. Of course we can't base our opinion solely on that information, but Boise who is known for their offense this year with Kellen Moore throwing for the highest passing efficiency in the nation and 39 TD and 3 INT has faced nobody defensively. They faced three teams with a total defense inside the top 70 and that was teams ranked 65th, 70, and 37. Oregon in game 1 held them to 19 points and lost, but TCU is much better than Oregon and from what we already saw from the PAC-10 we can say the MW Conference may just be better. Add in the fact that Moore's best option Austin Pettis was questionable for the game because of an ankle injury. He'll give it a go, but clearly won't be 100% which is a big deal against a solid defense. Pettis caught 14TD's this year. These two teams met last year and while TCU only won by 1 point the story here is that they out gained Boise 472 to 250 yards. Andy Dalton threw an interception for TCU something I do not think will happen this year and his overall play is much more threatening than it was a year ago. Dalton has double the number of TD passes than a year ago with 22 and has thrown just 5 interceptions. He is completing 8.9 yards per pass and that's nearly 2 yards more than a year ago while he's rushing +0.7 ypc more than a year ago. Boise State has a solid defense, but they are vulnerable to the running game something TCU ranked #5 in the nation thrives on. Fresno State's Ryan Mathews gashed the Broncos front seven and the only other strong running game was Nevada a team that ran for 242 yards and Vai Taua having 160 with 6.7 yards per carry. TCU has faced defenses close to what Boise does and they have come out successful. They have faced 5 strong defenses ranked 19,29,11,20, and 54 respectfully. In those games they averaged 31.4 ppg and gave up 15.2ppg. TCU carries the #1 total defense and is stout on both sides passing and rushing. They held Boise to 1.6 yard per carry a year ago and should be able to do that again making Moore have to beat them. TCU shut down some good passing attacks this year including BYU 38-7 and Utah 55-28 both those teams beat up on Pac-10 teams in their bowl games. Bottom line TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls and although a TD seems like a lot it really isn't when you have a defense as good as this. TCU DE Jerry Hughes will have a huge game and will disrupt Kellen Moore. Moore may have only been sacked 5 times this year, but it was against some terrible pass defenses even Oregon the best total defense that Boise State has played had a #46 pass defense. TCU flies in at #64. |
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01-03-10 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Cowboys -3 (3.5 Dime NFL POD RU) @ +100
This game is at +100 everywhere I see it and even at +105 at some other places. This is definitely the game of the day and will be for the division title and a lot will be on the line in this one. I love the boys here and they come in with a huge revenge spot. If you remember a year ago the Cowboys needed to win their last game against the Eagles and they just embarrassed themselves. Well I truly believe this Cowboy team is way different than last years. Their defense may just be the best in the NFC and it's coming together at the right time beating the Saints and embarrassing the Redskins in a shutout win. I think it's a good game, but -3 at home I'm confident the boys will come through. |
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01-03-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Miami Dolphins +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins +3 +100 (4-Dime NFL POD)
The Steelers are not 3 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field not this year not without Troy Polamolou. The Dolphins are still alive int he playoff picture believe it or not but many do not realize this and the public is pounding the Steelers because it's a must win for them, but in my opinion teams playing in this situation trying to cover the spread just don't do it. Just because you MUST win does not mean you will. You often see a team that has "nothing to play for," play their best games in these situations. I think you will see the Dolphins play that type of game. Their loss last week hurt to the Texans, but they know they are slightly alive for the playoffs, and that's enough to get a win today at home. |
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01-02-10 | Michigan State +9 v. Texas Tech | 31-41 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Mich State +9 (3.5 Dime LNF play)
Got to go with Michigan State catching points here. Granted we have the #2 pass offense going up against #104 pass defense in Michigan State, but they can still stop some of the top passing games in the nation if they are one dimensional which is what Texas Tech is ranked #115 in rushing the ball. they faced a few teams like that including Notre Dame who has a better running game than Texas Tech and Michigan State should have won that game if it weren't for a dropped pass, but they still managed to lose just by 3 (30-33) @ Notre Dame. They faced other one dimensional teams with similar defenses including Northwestern who they beat 24-14. Northwestern just gave their opponent an SEC team everything they could have and Penn State beat LSU, while Ohio State took down Oregon in the Rose Bowl proving that just maybe the Big 10 is a solid conference all around. I think the Big 10 continues to get a bad wrap and add in the fact that Tx Tech will be without their head coach with all the controversies as Mike Leach will be fired and this game suddenly is not the most important thing for the football team. Look what happened to Cinci last night playing uninspiring football without their coach. Texas Tech has played a few teams like Michigan State and they have all been close games. Actually Michigan State has played in seven games decided by eight or fewer points so I feel this one will be close too with Kirk Cousins getting many yards through the air. Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big 10 and 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games ATS. |
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01-02-10 | Arkansas -7 v. East Carolina | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Arkansas -7 *3.3 Dime NCAAF PLAY
Going with the Razorback here and Petrino to take care of Conference USA East Carolina. ECU is a solid team and they play solid ball and have a challenging schedule, but I just think they will be outmatched in this one. Basically because their most glaring weakness is Arkansas' strength. Pass defense, ECU ranks 110th in the nation while Arkansas ranks 10th in the nation. Ryan Mallet should have a field day throwing to his receivers Greg Childs and DJ Williams. Arkansas has a blend of size, and speed. Arkansas got their #10 ranking against some of the top pass defense teams in the nation. They only faced two teams outside the top 100 in pass defense and ECU will be the third. The results was not so good for the first two including Texas A&M as Arkansas rattled off 56 points and then 47 points against Troy. Really think Arkansas will put up close to 30 and ECU just does not have the offense to keep up. |
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01-02-10 | Mississippi -3 v. Oklahoma State | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Miss -3 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
This may just be the best game of the day in the Cotton Bowl between two teams with big pre-season hopes that never came together. Bottom line I saw this Ole Miss team play against Alabama and their defense was very solid. Unfortunately the offense came up with 3 points and constantly gave Alabama short field position in a 22-3 loss. So the talent is there and Oklahoma State just does not have the talent on the defensive side that Alabama has. Actually Oklahoma State has had problems defending the pass ranked #94 in the nation. The key to the Rebels is Snead when he's not giving the ball away and he's making plays so is Miss. He has faced an extremely challenging schedule this year with six top 30 pass defenses this year. When he faced the bottom three 105, 120, 118 Miss averaged 41ppg in those games and they won all three of those games. On the other side Oklahoma State has faced many good offenses, but this may just be the most balanced attack with Snead and half back McCluster both can hurt Oklahoma State here. Oklahoma State is a one dimensional offense with their All-American WR Dez Bryant as was clear in their finale against a good defense in Oklahoma as they managed just 62 passing yards in a 0-27 loss. Oklahoma actually reminds me a bit of Miss and I think we could see Oklahoma get shut down by Mississippi's #19 ranked pass defense. Miss is 7-0 in their last 7 non-conference and Oklahoma State is 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. Who will you hear all day long? Dexter McCluster. He can take this game over and probably will. |
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01-02-10 | Northern Illinois v. South Florida -7 | 3-27 | Win | 103 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Take USF -7 +103 @ 5DIMES (3.5 Dime Play).
I know the disadvantages in this game for South Florida. They are pretty evident going on the road and the motivation can not be as high as it is for Northern Illinois here and that is why this game will be closer than many think. BUT, Overall I think the 7 points is still too little. I believe South Florida takes advantage here they have huge advantages in speed and athleticism and they have faced a strength of schedule that's 120 points higher than Northern Illinois. Their opponents and opp-opp win% are more than .100 points higher. Northern Illinois has gotten it done with their running game and defense, but you can not be one dimensional against a solid defense like South Florida. South Florida is loaded with talent with next-level DE Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie. Tackles Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain have the size to stop the up the middle runs that Spann and Brown will try to bring. Overall Northern Illinois offense is average at 79 in total yards in the country. They have faced a weak schedule with an average opp defense at #70. When they played top defenses (3X) They lost by 14, 7, and 8 and this may just be the most talented defense they'll face all year long. South Florida on the other hand when they faced weak offenses they were 3-1 winning by 12, 14, and 22. |
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01-01-10 | Ohio State +4.5 v. Oregon | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
Ohio State +4 (3.5 Dime play)
I've been on the side of the PAC-10 once this bowl season and although it was a win I was very fortunate as UCLA got the pick six to seal the deal. I refuse to back them again even if it's Oregon who had a challenging non-conference schedule with Utah and Boise State on the schedule. Bottom line this is the best defense Oregon will face all year long and I don't see them as more than a FG favorite. The last time a PAC10 team other than Washington or USC has wont he Rose Bowl was 1987. I just think Ohio State is too disciplined on defense to allow Massoli and LaMichael James to just handle them. Ohio State has faced some pretty darn solid running teams ranked #25, #18, #4, and #15 in those games they gave up a total of 50 points that's an average of 12.5 ppg. Some of these teams have better defenses than Oregon including possibly Wisconsin who they beat 31-13. I just don't think Oregon has enough in the passing game to make Ohio State think about it. That's where they are vulnerable if at all. It's how Purdue beat them although Ohio State gave the ball away 5 times and was the reason they lost that game. Oregon has played two solid defenses that can even be discussed with Ohio State and that's Boise State who held Oregon to 9 points and Utah held them to 31 points. Ohio State is 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs. the PAC-10 with that loss coming against USC this year. They are 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall bowl games. Terrelle Pryor may just surprise some people here despite the bumb knee and I think Massoli will be average at best. |
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01-01-10 | Florida State v. West Virginia -2.5 | 33-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
2.5 Dime Bonus - Take West Virginia -2.5
I really can not stay away from the other Bowl Game at 1pm and that is the Gator bowl. Despite West Virginia's struggles against the ACC in the past 3-11 ATS in their last 14 and Bowl Games 2-9 ATS in their last 7 I think they have finally met their match in FSU. Florida State has one of the worst defenses of a bowl team that I have seen all year. multiple times i have seen this team just look awful. They lost at home to Big East South Florida and South Florida is one of the worst teams on the road. South Florida did beat West Virginia in a game I had South Florida as a POD. That was a situational spot on a Friday night prime time game that they did it on so I don't look into that as much when comparing these two teams. What I do look at is how FSU fared against a team that could run the ball and against Clemson and Georgia Tech both solid running teams that could not pass the ball all that well just like West Virginia it was their defense getting rolled over. Against Clemson they gave up 40 points and lost by 16 and against Georgia Tech they gave up 49 and scored 44. Now West Virginia's defense is probably somewhere between Clemson and Georgia Tech. I think West Virginia finally wants to win this game, and I believe they will over a Florida State team that is getting more credit than they deserve partially due to Bobby Bowden coaching his last game. I don't buy all that crap in the end it's how the teams play on the field. West Virginia has had a challenging schedule and they came close to beating the Bearcats and handed a very good Pitt team a loss. This is the worst defense West Virginia will face all year and Noel Devine should go off and have a huge game. |
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01-01-10 | LSU +2.5 v. Penn St. | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
LSU +3 -120 buy 1/2 point 4.4-Dime PLAY
The difficulty in the schedule for LSU is much more challenging than what Penn State saw as they had out of conference games against Temple, Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. Yikes, that spells over rated to me. This will be the best defense they have faced all year except for maybe Ohio State who is almost a carbon copy of LSU in my opinion, but a carbon copy playing in the strongest conference in the nation. LSU ranked #26 in defense is known for their defense and they have gone up against an average #56 offensive attack. The worry here and why they are not favored is Penn State's strong defense ranked #9 overall vs. LSU's poor offense #107. Well I am here to tell you not to worry. Look what Ohio State did scored 31 points on the road. LSU has been one of the better teams in bowl games over recent years and even better when they leave their conference for non-conference play. As they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowls and 4-1 in their last 5 as under dogs in bowls. They are also 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. I just can't trust a Penn State team to shut down LSU when they have faced an average defense ranked 81 in the country. I believe LSU will be able to move the ball and I believe the LSU defense will be able to hold Clark and Royster in check for most of the afternoon. Also don't count on Penn State's run defense to shut down LSU as LSU ran for 133 against Alabama. Their issues have been running for losses all year long and I think a lot of that has been corrected in the time off. The difference in this game will be special teams and turnover margin. LSU ranked #21 in turnover margin ahead of Penn State and features one of the best special team games. LSU Trindon Holliday is the nation's #1 ranked punt returner at 18.64 ypc and penn State's return game is abysmal at best. This will be the difference in what should be a very close game. In the end I think the game comes down to a field goal which is why I recommend paying the 10 cents to get this line at +3. If you want the value is there on the money line as well. |
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01-01-10 | Northwestern +8.5 v. Auburn | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
Take Northwestern +8.5 (4.5 Dime NCAAF POD)
Got to go with Northwestern in this situation against Auburn. Auburn has not faced anyone this year with a good passing game except Arkansas ranked #10 and what happened? It was a 23-44 loss and Arkansas does not have the defense that Northwestern has. Kafka was solid down the stretch throwing for over 300 yards against Illinois and Wisconsin. A win over Wisconsin look pretty impressive considering what Wisconsin did to Miami in their bowl game. Northwestern has the #28 ranked passing game and they have faced a solid defense out of the PAC-10. Auburn does have a #29 pass defense, but note they have faced an average 81st passing offense. The SEC is loaded with run first teams and that is why their run defense at #80 is not impressive either. Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 as a favorite while Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as under dogs. Auburn will be able to run the ball, but Northwestern is extremely under rated in my opinion in terms of their defense. They have faced two teams that can run the ball in the category of an Auburn and that was against Wisconsin and Illinois in their last two games each featuring solid running games at #15 and #18 while Auburn comes in at #13. Northwestern won both of those games out right, and while Illinois defense is defintely worse than Auburn, Wisconsin's is definitely better than Auburns. I think this will be a very close game than many expect and in the end I think Northwestern will have an opportunity to win the game outright. Player to watch is Northwestern DE Corey Wooton he's a first round prospect. He had a knee injury but still has a world of talent. Look for him to really disrupt Auburn and what they try to do here on Friday. |
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12-31-09 | Tennessee +6 v. Virginia Tech | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
Tennessee +6 (4.5 Dime NCAAF POD) Tenn +200 (1-Dime Bonus)
I really can't argue that Virginia Tech is not a good team they are excellent, but a closer look at their defense reveals that they may not be as dominant as many think. They really only played three good passing teams and two of them picked Vtech apart including NC State's Russell Wilson, and Duke's Thaddeus Lewis. Johnathan Crompton grew up this year and ended his season in spectacular fashion. Crompton one of the most challenging schedules for any passer had to go up against both Florida and Alabama. Overall he faced a 33rd ranked pass defense. Tennessee however is still known more for its defense despite having a very balanced offense attack. Tenn's defense ranked #19 overall in total defense and can be compared without getting a lugh to the three top defense that Virginia Tech has seen in UNC, (L17-20), Nebraska (W "miracle" 16-15) and Alabama (L24-34). In fact Tenn played right with Alabama on the road and should have won if their FG kicker could get enough height on his kicks. I really think Tennessee can shut down Virginia Tech. Give Monte Kiffin the defensive coordinator a month to prepare for a game and he will come up big. Tennessee came up with their biggest games against the top in the SEC as they played Alabama and Florida extremely well and blew out Georgia on the road where Crompton had his coming out party. We did not mention Vtech's run defense that is ranked 54th, but has only seen an average rushing attack ranked 72. Tennessee features a very strong running game with Montario Hardesty. Hardesty ran for 1,306 yards and 12 TD's. When he runs for more than 100 yards Tenn is 5-0 this year. When he doesn't they are 2-5. I believe he will have every opportunity to run for 100+ Virginia Tech is 1-4 in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite and really should not be favored by almost a TD in this game playing an SEC team. We saw what happened when top ACC teams played mid SEC teams when Georgia Tech and Clemson lost to Georgia and South Carolina. Judging by what Georgia did in their bowl game and what Tenn did to them on the road I'd say Tenn is flying under the radar here still! |
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12-31-09 | Stanford v. Oklahoma -10 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Oklahoma -10 (5-Dime NCAAF POD)
Biggest play of this bowl season thus far comes on Oklahoma. I just love this play and Oklahoma is big favorites. I don't often play big favorites, but in this situation I can't help but really like them. I'll tell you why. IF you have been paying attention you have seen me talking trash about the Pac-10! Tonight was just another win fading the PAC-10 when Nebraska destroyed Arizona in an easy 33-0 win. That was Nebraska. Stanford actually lost to Arizona who got beat by Nebraska badly, so who is the better team? I just do not think this is a good match up for Stanford. Against teams with top 27 running defenses they are 1-3 and those are against Pac-10 defenses which up until this point can't really be taken seriously. Even Temple ran through and dominated the UCLA defense. Stanford is going to have his hands filled with Oklahoma and their #8 ranked run defense. Oklahoma has faced two top 29 running offenses and the result was a 27-0 win over Oklahoma State who carries the #22 running offense. Then against Texas A&M who also carries a good passing game they won 65-10. Yikes! This does not look good for Stanford who is going to rely to much on Toby Gerhart to run the ball especially since their QB Andrew Luck will miss this game. Their back up is more than competent but he'll go up against a tested Oklahoma secondary that rankes #22. Oklahoma should be feasting on Stanford's defense and I don't think they'll be stopped all day long. Oklahoma has faced 4 pass defenses in the category that Stanford falls into which is BAD. Stanford ranked 105 in the country in pass defense and Oklahoma has faced 4 teams close to that with ranks of 94, 107, 95, and 102. The results were a combined score of 179-40. Neither one of those games was close, and even though Sam Bradford won't play here Landry Jones has enough experience and has proven that when he plays a poor defense he makes the plays to win in blowouts which is exactly what I think this will be. It's really too bad for a Stanford team that looked really good at times this year. Oklahoma will continue it's dominance against the Pac -10 as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 and they will fix their struggles int he bowl games that have been their last 6 going 1-5 ATS. This is a low key bowl for Oklahoma and the competition is not nearly what it normally is. Stanford is a nice team with some nice coaches, but they are out of the league here and just like every other Pac-10 team they will be embarrassed I think. Stanford 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. |
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12-31-09 | Air Force +5 v. Houston | 47-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
AFA +5 3.3 Dime EBS play
Got to go with Air Force here. They won last years regular season battle 31-28, and then lost in this very Bowl game when Houston had revenge. The score of that game 34-28 still Air Force right in the game. They play Houston well as they have the #1 pass defense going up against the #1 pass offense. Granted they really are not as good as that because they run the ball so much, and even BYU passed for 370 yards, but BYU is better than Houston anyway. Strength of schedule believe it or not is on Air Forces side as their opponents have a .519 winning percentage and Houston's has a .451. Houston looked awful many times this year and especially against team that could run the ball like Airforce does #3 in the nation. Houston is ranked #111 int he nation in run defense and I look for AirForce to exploit that and get revenge from their loss in this bowl game a year ago. Air Force has faced 4 teams with bad run defenses and they are 4-0. Those 4 teams had run defenses of 113, 85, 83, and 93. The results were all wins by a combined score of 131-44. Granted this is Houston, but I give Air force an excellent shot at winning this game and I'll make it a small play here. |
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12-30-09 | Nebraska Cornhuskers -3 v. Arizona Wildcats | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Nebraska -2.5 (3.3 Dime play)
I'll continue to fade the Pac-10 this year it has worked well for us with the exception of Boston College against USC. Yesterday I backed a Pac-10 team and we nearly got burned. It was a pick six that got us the cover and we are very fortunate for that as UCLA won 30-21 over Temple. Arizona is one of the top PAC-10 teams, but they are going to face arguably the best defense they have faced all year long. I just can not go against Nebraska and what I saw from them when they shut down a wild Texas offense. The best player in the nation will be on the side of the Huskers in Ndamukong Suh. He is athletic and aggressive to get to the passer and drop even in coverage. He had one of the more dominating performances you will ever see in a title game. The only reason I do not have this as a POD is because of Nebraska coming off the Big 12 title game in a loss. Usually teams slip up in the bowl games, but I'd expect that much more from a team that wins because of their offense. This is a defensive team and a proud one at that and they will be ready. This will be by far the best defense Nick Foles and Arizona will face all year. The next closest was Iowa out of the Big Ten and they lost 17-27. Here against a top defense that has to play in conference that features top offensive clubs like Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Missouri and more. This team is tested and will be ready for Arizona's balanced offense. All you need to know about the PAC-10 is that UCLA and USC are the only two to win their bowl games. UCLA got lucky and USC faced a Boston College team that has no offense. Arizona might be one of the more balanced and best offensive teams in the Pac-10 but you may not know it on Wednesday night. It should be an excellent game and give all more of an opportunity to see the nation's best player Suh. |
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12-30-09 | Bowling Green v. Idaho -1 | Top | 42-43 | Push | 0 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Idaho -1 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Yes, Idaho's defense on paper looks just awful, but when they played one dimensional teams like Bowling Green they won, including a 34-16 win over San Diego State a team with identical statistical rankings to Bowling Green. They also beat a MAC team in Northern Illinois 34-31 and NILL has one of the best defenses out of the MAC and plays in the better division of the MAC. Bowling Green did not face them this year. I believe the WAC is slightly stronger than the MAC. You've got Fresno, Nevada, Boise and more. Actually Bowling Green actually faced Boise State and it was at home in a pathetic attempt as they lost 14-49 with -247 yards. Idaho played at Boise two games ago and although they lost 25-63 they out gained Boise by 56 yards. They will have to play on the blue turf again here today. I just trust a team that is used to playing on the blue turf over a team that's not. Although Idaho has such a hate for Boise that they will not occupy the home team locker room. The best player in this game belongs on the side of Idaho and he may not be your traditional offensive player, but it's Guard Mike Iupati. He's 6-6 and 330 pounds and should go in the first round of the draft. Just watch this guy as Idaho beats up a 103rd ranked rush defense here today. Idaho has the #10 offense and maybe their defense lacks a bit, but Bowling Green can't compete here with a balanced offensive team in Idaho. Bowling Green can pass all they want with Tyler Sheehan and should rack up some good yards throwing to Mr. Barnes, but in the end there is plenty of tape out there on how to stop this passing game and with no thoughts of running the ball they will likely get stopped in the red zone a few times and have to settle for fieldgoals which is what will win this game. |
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12-29-09 | Wisconsin +4 v. Miami (Florida) | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Take Wisconsin +4 (4-Dime POD)
This line will continue to climb today and I'll take it at +4 where it is at many books and will be at the majority of them here tonight. Wisconsin is the exact team that has given Miami troubles all year long. Wisconsin has had more rushing yards with their stand out RB John Clay than every team they have faced this year. Miami also a solid rushing team to go with a solid rushing defense has been out rushed in three games. They just do not play the power game run and stop the run as well as Wisconsin. Both have similar strength of schedules so the stats can be taken seriously. In the three games that Miami was out gained they won two of them, but those two wins were by 1 point each and the loss to Virginia Tech was by 24 points. This Miami teams plays best when the running game is working and they should have a lot of trouble getting it going here today against the #8 ranked team against the run. Although Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and Wisconsin got torched a year ago in this Champs Sports Bowl by another Florida ACC team in Florida State I believe they will be ready this time around. This is a Wisconsin team that was a couple of plays or games away from playing on New Years. In their games against top flight passing teams they played extremely well going 3-1 and the loss came by just 2 points to Northwestern a solid team that knocked off Iowa. Even though they lost it was still not by what they are given here today which is 4 points. Wisconsin is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an under dog while Miami is 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite including 2-11 ATS as a favorite between 3.5-10 points. In Miami's three losses QB Jacoby Harris struggled big time often forcing too many passes. Harris is a pocket passer despite having the speed to move around. Teams that can get to him have forced him to make mistakes and that included 4 against UNC, 3 against Clemson, and 1 against Virginia Tech. Wisconsin has that type of defense and has been tested by some solid passing games out of the Big Ten. They have a very solid pass rush with O'Brien Schofield and the fact that Miami will be with out their 6-7 tackle Jason Fox will make this a huge advantage for Wisconsin and probably the biggest reason why I'm not backing Miami here at all. Look for Wisconsin to put Schofield in position all day to make plays for the Badgers. I believe Wisconsin plays with the lead for most of the night in what will be a close game, but Miami should have an opportunity to win the game in the 4th, but if they do it will only be by a FG. |
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12-29-09 | UCLA -4 v. Temple | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Take UCLA -4 (3.5 Dime Play)
I can't help but not buy into the hype of a Temple team that did not impress me against OHIO when it was their biggest game of the season the team crumbled to Ohio. Temple after all started the season with a loss to D1-AA Villanova and then scored just 6 points against Penn State. I'll tell you exactly why that has some kind of relevancy as neither one of these teams have a similar opponent and both are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. However, both teams have faced Big10 opponents in Kansas State and Penn State. Both Kstate and Pstate have identical strengh of schedules at .493. UCLA beat Kansas Sate 23-9, and Temple lost to Penn state 31-6. To me Temples defense is over rated and UCLA's defense is under appreciated because their offense is just so bad. Kansas State is or appears to be an exact copy of what Temple is in the sense of pure ratings. Kansas State 81, 105, 25 and 87 offensive ranks (total, pass, run, scoring) While Temple 89, 112, 23, &36. Now Temple's strength of schedule of .417 is miles behind Kansas State's .493. UCLA shut down that offense because it was one dimensional and I think they will do this again here today. If you are not convinced yet know that against one dimensional offenses UCLA has given up just 17.2ppg. I believe they can shut down Temple despite Temple getting their talented RB Bernard Pierce. It just won't be enough with North Carolina having 6 All -PAC10 defenders and have NFL talent sprinkled in each part of the defense. The front line features DT Briant Price, LB Reggie Carter, and stand out CB Alterraun Verner including FS Rahim Moore. The talent is there and while UCLA was the last team in for the bowl games and they have to travel east I still think they have much more to play for here than many feel. This was just Rick Neuheisel's second season and although more was expected they are still in a bowl game after 4 wins last year. Their QB Kevin Prince is a redshirt freshmen who has looked solid at times and is compared to be the second coming of Cade McNown. The passing offense ranked 52nd and a running game ranked 97th which is not as bad as it appears since playing a average 48th ranked rush defense. The strength of UCLA's offense (pass game) matches up against the weakness of Temples D in their secondary. Temple does not have the passing game to make any kind of a come back especially considering UCLA has a shut down secondary. Look for UCLA playmakers Johnathan Franklin and WR Nelson Rosario to get their names called early and often. |
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12-28-09 | Texas A&M v. Georgia -6.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Georgia -6.5 4-Dime NCAAF POD
I looked for reasons to take Texas A&M I really did, but I could not really find any. Sure Jerrod Johnson is an incredible athlete and has been nasty all year long, but I think Georgia has the balanced defense to stop the running game and force Johnson to become a pocket passer. That is something both Kansas State and Oklahoma were able to do. In my opinion this will be the 3rd best defense Texas A&M will see all year long. Georgia ranked #31 overall is very balanced on both sides against the run and pass. The biggest difference in this game is the misconception that Georgia's offense is average which it is not. They have faced an average defense ranked #38 in total defense and you would have a hard time finding anyone that faced a stronger schedule. This will be the 10th bowl team that Georgia has played this year. Their strength of schedule is miles from what Texas A&M had to face. They faced an opp with a .576 win% while Texas A&M faced .452. The only time Georgia faced a defense that was ranked close to what Texas A&M was @ Arkansas and they put up 52 points. That was the same Arkansas team that held Texas A&m to 19 points on the road in a 47-19 win. There it is Georgia went on the road and beat up on Arkansas and A&M at home lost to Arkansas 19-47. Georgia has a much better defense and you could even say they have a more balanced offense than what Arkansas had. The Key to the game here is protection. Georgia will have their hands full against Von Miller the nations leader in sacks. However, he had 11 of his 17 sacks against awful teams, New Mexico, Utah State, UAB, Colorado, and Iowa State. Georgia led the SEC in sacks allowed so I'm thinking Miller won't be a problem. The other key is turnovers. Georgia does not force them and it's the reason they are 119th in turnover margin. If they protect the ball they should win this game by more than a TD. Luckily Texas A&M is 66th in turnover margin and does not really force takeaways. |
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12-27-09 | Kentucky +7 v. Clemson | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
Kentucky +7 buy hook -120 4.4 dimes + Kentucky +218 1 dime bonus
I am on Kentucky here and it's not just because I am a big supporter of the SEC, because Clemson definitely has the superior talent here. It's more because Rich Brooks the Kentucky coach. Even at the age of 68 he continues to prove that he's one of the better coaches. Kentucky won their last three bowl games and I think they will win this game as an underdog which is why I give you the money line bonus. Kentucky is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games proving that the SEC is superior and a team like Kentucky who does not get much love in conference play is one of the better teams in college football. Getting points here I feel confident. Randall Cobb is the best player on the field yes that is a bold statement considering CJ Spiller is on the field, but Cobb is the MVP here and I think he will get it done for Kentucky against a Clemson run defense that has been very suspect all year long ranked #69 in the nation against the run. Kentucky's offensive line is one of the bigger lines Clemson will see all year long as they average more than 300lbs up front. Derrick Locke the HB will also cut through Clemson's defense as well. Kentucky played a poor run defensive Auburn, and that team statistically is very similar to Clemson except Auburn has a better offense and Kentucky marched into Auburn and won 21-14 for the first time since 1966. Brooks also had Kentucky beat Georgia at Georgia for the first time since 1977 so this Kentucky team is one of the better teams they have had in some time. Clemson on the other hand does not play in bowl games well actually they lost in 2006 as favorites to this Kentucky team by 6 points. Clemson is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC and actually played South Carolina a team Kentucky lost by just 2 points on the road while Clemson got crushed on the road 17-34 and were -128 yards while Kentucky was -1 yard. Clemson is 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games ATS and 0-5 in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite. CJ Spiller will light it up again here, but in the end it won't matter as Kentucky's defense is better than many give credit. |
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12-27-09 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
Steelers -3 @ +112 3-Dime play
Take the Steelers here.. I know their defense has not been good, but anytime against the Ravens I will take them as small favorites here at home. Their offense is still a top flight offense and the Ravens just don't play defense at all just like the Steelers. IT really comes down to who you trust more at QB and for me it's definitely Big Ben! |
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12-26-09 | Boston College +7 v. USC | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
BC +7 (3-Dime Play)
Based on what we have seen from the Pac-10 vs. the MWC I can't help but take another non-conference team over a Pac-10 team especially a USC team and what they showed us down the stretch. USC also likely without their star RB Joe Mcknight here today. USC will have to face a solid rushing defense ranked #16 in the nation anyway. Common opponent was Notre Dame while Boston College lost @ Notre Dame by 4, USC won by 7. I really don't put too much weight into that loss for BC if anything it showed their defense is better than USC's and their offense put them in terrible position all day as their 25 year old 1st year QB threw 5 INTS vs. Notre Dame. I expect a solid running game from BC in a low scoring game. Boston College 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a dog and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a dog overall. Very proud team not picked to go far, but will likely give it 100% here today. USC had dreams of going to the Rose Bowl or even a National Championship. The Emerald Bowl does not give them much motivation to play well here today in my opinion. |
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12-26-09 | North Carolina +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Take UNC +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with the Tarheels here as they face a team off a huge emotional loss in the Big East Championship. Pitt just could not hold on to their 3 TD lead over Cinn in that game and I do expect a carry over into this game where they will have to face off against the best defense they have faced all year long. The closest resemblance of a defense as good as UNC that Pitt faced was West Virginia who still is miles away from what this team is and they lost to them 16-19. I believe Dion Lewis will be bottled up all day as UNC has all stars all over the field and they are ranked #9 nationally against the run. They have NFL type players in DT Marvin Austin, DE Robert Quinn, and linebackers Quan Slurdivant and Bruce Carter who can close on Lewis in a hurry. The 5-8 195lb runner is going to have issues here on Saturday and we will take advantage. Granted Pitt has a distinct advantage on the other side of the ball, but as we know defense wins championships and with UNC getting points I will take it in that situation especially since Pitt really does not have a distinct advantage here and add in the fact that UNC has faced a stronger schedule by far in my rankings. Besides UNC's offense is not as bad as many are making it out to be they have two talented RB's and in their last three games they averaged 30.3ppg and that was against three solid defense ranked 57, 23 and 25th in total defense so yes I am impressed. Two common opponents between these two teams as both played UCONN and NC State. While the outcomes were the same we can find something very different. First Uconn both teams won in close games. UNC played Uconn early in the season and won 12-10, but that was a very different offense and defense and they still out gained them by 76 yards. Pitt got a win against UCONN but it was at home while UNC played them on the road. They won 24-21 but out gained them by 186 yards. Now here is where the difference is and why I think the ACC is better than the Big East. @NC State Pitt lost by a TD and were out gained by 230 yards. This to a team that is not going bowling and one of the worst in the ACC. Granted UNC also lost to this team, but in the last game of the season and that is only making this team hungrier. It was on NC State's Sr. day and despite losing they out gained them by +146 yards. So that's 376 yards separating Pitt and UNC. I really expect a dominant day from UNC's front 7 and hey that secondary isn't bad either ranking 14th overall. Look for a low scoring game, but for UNC's defense to be a difference maker. |
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12-26-09 | Ohio v. Marshall +3 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Marshall +3 - 3.5 Dime NCAAF POD Runner UP
Marshall has had the stronger schedule and stronger oponent win% as well as a stronger opp-opp win%. Judging by what conference USA already did with SMU just taking care of business to Nevada another team off a heartbreaking conference championship loss I'd say I like my chances with Marshall tomorrow. Granted Ohio may have some extra motivation not ever winning a Bowl game before, but I still do not care. This defense of Marshall's is under rated and they have faced a stronger opponent than Ohio has in terms of the offenses they have faced. The weakness of Ohio's defense which is the running defense is the strength of the Marshall running game as they get a healthy Darius Marshall back. Marshall had solid games against some of the steady run defenses. During a four-week stretch, he went for 109, 186, 203, 141 against teams like Virginia Tech and East Carolina. On the other side of the ball Ohio has been one of my favorite teams to bet on and Frank Solich is a solid coach that gets the most out of his players, but finally the best won't be good enough. They came off a heart breaking loss to Central Mich in the MAC title game and I think they won't be up for this one as much despite wanting the schools first ever bowl win. Marshall has been here before and I just have too much respect for conference USA. These two have faced each other many times in the past as Marshall used to be a member of Conference USA. These two teams are pretty evenly matched and in that situation I like to bet on the stronger conference opponent. These two had one similar game and that was Bowling Green. Marshall was -47 yards to Bowling Green but won the game 17-10 while Ohio was -55 yards and won 44-37 and -55 yards. Both teams won, but you could tell that Ohio's defense really is on another level compared to Marshall. Darius Marshall ran for 186 yards in that game and I think he'll have a similar game here on Saturday. Often times I have seen Ohio's defensive line break against good running teams. Marshall's defense has played three similar opponents in terms of offensive rankings. The rest of the teams they have faced all have better offensive rankings. While they went 1-2 straight up in those games they were all close games. They L to UCF 20-21, (UCF better defense than OHIO), Won @ Tulane 31-10, and lost at East Carolina 17-21 who also have a better defense than Ohio. |
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12-25-09 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Chargers +3.5 Buy 1/2 (-120) 4DIMES + Under 47.5 1 dime bonus
I can't help but bet on this kind of value with the Chargers. I don't buy into the this team has more motivation and it doesn't matter because the Chargers need one more win to clinch the 2nd seed anyway. The defense the Chargers have been playing with in the red zone is my reason here and although I can see the Titans winning I don't think it will happen. Although there are three wins during their streak against solid teams in Houston, Arizona, and Miami all by 3 points so if they do win this game I bet it's by 3 points so buy the points here! Titans are #31 in pass defense and things are just clicking for Phillip Rivers and company. However, I do like for the Titans to play well int he red zone too in what should not be a track meet! I think these totals are way too high at 47.5 and for that I am going under as a small bonus. Enjoy your Christmas! |
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12-24-09 | SMU +13 v. Nevada | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
SMU +13 BODOG 3.3 DIME PLAY + .7DIMES ON SMU +360
Well some of you may be surprised, but taking under dogs has never scared me. Hope you all have a great holiday and with not much else going on here on the eve of Christmas the Hawaii Bowl should be on everyone's TV. Tonight SMU has all the motivational advantage against the WAC team. First of all we can talk this match up comes down to two things. SMU's suspect run defense vs. Nevada's #1 running game, and Nevada's suspect #119 pass defense vs. SMU's #28 passing attack. Well along with those two things I also like SMU to have a bit of a motivational and emotional advantage which is more of a big deal than you realize. Nevada may come out a little flat because of the crushing loss to Boise in the WAC title game. They made that game closer than it really was at 44-33. Now SMU comes in without the nerves as they haven't been to a bowl game in 25 years, but enter June Jones the former Hawaii coach and in his second year this team is going bowling and ironically back to the place where June Jones used to play Nevada, Hawaii. I just believe SMU is going to come out wiht an intensity like no other in this game. While their rank says they are #100 in rushing game since Kyle Padron took over at QB it has really opened up the game and they do feature a 100 yard rusher in Shawnbrey McNeal. Why can SMU stop the run? Well they really can't let's be honest here Nevada is going to runt he ball 90% of the time and are #1 in rush defense, but if they can make some opportunistic stops they will be right in the thick of things and that is what this defense has done all year. This rush defense is a little better than many are giving them credit for they are ranked #88 but faced a 61 rushing attack while Nevada #1 in rush offense has only faced an average 87th ranked opponent. Okay so there is one team that SMU played that can be compared to this game and that was Navy. Now Navy #4 in rushing the ball has a better defense than what Nevada has and in that game SMU lost in OT 35-38. Also note that Nevada's three headed monster rushing attack featuring three 1,000 rushers is going to be without one in monster Lippincott who is out for this game. The key for SMU is get their passing game going against Nevada and get out to a lead which shouldn't be a problem considering.... Nevada has not fared well against talented passing games and with Padron going to Sanders the all time SMU leading receiver it will mean trouble for Nevada. Emmanuel Sanders has 91 receptions 1,215 yards receiveing both records at SMU. He has speed to burn and get pick you apart when he goes deep or when he catches slant routes and gets yard after the catch. Remember June Jones knows Nevada as he is 4-0 against them in Honolulu. Also worth noting is that Nevada's defensive coordinator has left the program to take the coaching job at Portland State. This leaves Nevada in even more trouble in my opinion. Let's just go over the numbers here. Against Top 35 passing attacks which SMU falls under, Nevada game up 34.66 points per game and were 3-3. Only one game would have covered the spread they have here. SMU arguably has better defenses than Notre Dame (L0-35), Utah State (W35-32), Idaho (W70-45), Hawaii (31-21). This game should be extremely interesting and a shoot out in the end I think SMU will have a good shot at winning this game outright. Or worse case a back door passing TDs gets the cover. |
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12-23-09 | Utah Utes +3 v. California Golden Bears | Top | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Utah +3 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) + ML +145 (1-Dime Bonus)
Got to come with the Utes in this situation. They own the leagues longest Bowl streak and have one of the better defenses. Against similar defense of Arizona, Oregon, USC, and Arizona State Cal did not come up with a lot of points in fact they averaged 13.25ppg. Utah is that type of defense closely resembling USC in terms of overall, but the main difference is the pass defense. Utah ranked #14 in the nation in pass defense and Cal has not faced a pass defense as good as Utah. I think Cal QB Kevin Riley will be in for quite a night. He has been inconsistent and I don't see him being able to do much which mean it will fall on the shoulders of backup RB Vareen. Vareen will get his yards, but I think Utah is slightly under rated against the run because they struggled down the stretch without their DT Kenape Eliapo who was out with eye injuries. He'll be back in this game. Overall Utah has played better football and despite the game against TCU they have remained close in all three of their losses to top 25 teams. Including Oregon a common opponent where they almost came up with the tie, but fell short 24-31. This was @ Oregon and they were just -15 yards while Cal visited Oregon and were -317 yards and lost 3-42. Another example is what Utah did against BYU losing by three in OT. Why I bring up that is because Cal also faced a team that played last night this season in Oregon State who they lost to 14-31. So If Cal got smashed by Oregon, got beaten by 17 to Oregon State who lost 44-20 to BYU who Utah hung right with shouldn't Utah win tonight? I believe they can and will. Which is why I'll have a bonus on the money line for 1 dime. Utah is 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games while Cal is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as favorites 0.5 to 3. I really think Cal gets beat here it is as if they are throwing in their towels after the disappointing loss to Washington to wrap up the season 42-10. That loss placed them in this bowl instead of the Sun Bowl against Oklahoma. I just do not think they will match Utah's intensity and they have never played well in San Diego as favorites in bowl games losing both out right. MWC is already 2-0 in bowl games where they were dogs this will be a huge statement game for the conference. |
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12-22-09 | BYU v. Oregon State -2.5 | Top | 44-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State -2.5 *4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
This will be a gold members club play and a NCAAF POD. A rare 4.5 Dime play where I have been cashing all season long! My initial thought on the game was PAC-10 over MWC, but it's never that easy as BYU has played well in this bowl game. After looking at the match up further it was confirmed that I will be going with Oregon State here. There is just too much talent on the field for Oregon State with the Rodgers brothers and lefty QB Sean Canfield may surprise some as being the better QB on the field as he has completed more than 70% of his passes which is quite impressive. James Rodgers will take back kicks and punts and give Oregon State great field position all day long. I really like what I saw from Oregon State in the Civil War game. I was on Oregon in that game but the Beavers played a great game and I'm not worried about a let down. Ya this team lost that game and won't go to the Rose Bowl, but this is an opportunity to be recognized next year as a Top 25 team in the pre season polls as they will return 18 of their 22 starters. Oregon State also has a considerable advantage in the field goal game as Justin Kahut is 22 of 27 and 15 of 16 from inside 47 yards while Mitch Payne does not kick many and is just 9 for 13 on the year. Oregon State takes a 5 game winning streak in bowl games into this game and under Mike Riley they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Oregon State is more battle tested and although they will have periods of struggle in their pass defense they will rebound with the balanced offense that BYU won't be able to stop. BYU's QB Max Hall is one of the better QB's to come through the University. However, in his three year starting career he has just 13 games where he did not throw an interception. He often forces the ball and tries to make too much happen. Sometimes that is a good thing and it's worked well for him against inferior defenses and opponents. However, against a PAC-10 talent like Oregon State that played significantly better down the stretch against the pass, I don't see him having one of those games. Yes, he'll have time as Oregon State had just 15 sacks in the regular season, but in the end BYU won't get the stops on defense. Against the two strong opponents this year Florida State and TCU they lost by a combined score of 92-35. While I'm not calling for a blow out I really can see Oregon State putting up 40 points on this defense. They are very similar to Florida States offensive ranks that featured a strong passing game and mid running game. Florida State put up 54 points on BYU and they are significantly worse defensively than Oregon State. Overall BYU has had a weaker schedule and has played 5 defenses that ranked outside the Top 100 of 120 in FBS total defense ranks. Oregon State on the other hand faced only two. I just do not believe BYU will have the answers on defense or special teams to stop Oregon State. In the end if you watch this game you will remember Quizz Rodgers and James Rodgers as potential Heisman Trophy candidates next year and Sean Canfield as an under rated Sr. who can play at the next level if given a chance. Finally BYU 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, and Oregon State 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. Why this line may look to good to be true? Well BYU had periods of good play against Oklahoma and they did crush UNLV while Oregon State just got by 23-21. Well Oklahoma seems like years ago and that was when Sam Bradford was injured. Bottom line the weakness of Oregon State is the pass defense, but they have improved throughout the season and I believe Mike Riley will have his team ready in this one. |
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12-21-09 | New York Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 45-12 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Redskins +3 **4.4 Dime NFL POD
The home dog on Monday night worked well for us last week with the 49ers who in a divisional game were supposed to have really nothing to play for and dominated as a home dog. This Monday we go with the same strategy of taking a home dog on Monday night. Redskins whose offense has struggled this year leading to their 4-9 record. However, since Sherm Lewis took over the play calling it's been a difference maker and in their last 3 games they are 29.3 ppg. Some players have emerged including TE Fred Davis and WR Devin Thomas who have been the go to guys for Jason Campbell. Right now I just do not have any confidence in the Giants defense with players running wide open against them the last few weeks. This team lost badly to the Broncos and the Saints. While the Redskins beat the Broncos and had the Saints beat until some miracles went the Saints way. Redskins 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as an underdog while the Giants are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Monday night games. Really like for the Giants to lose this game and finally fall out of the playoff picture although they could still get in even with a loss because they have the tie breaker over the Cowboys if they ever end up with the same record. These Redskins want to play spoiler and they will do a good job of it tonight. |
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12-20-09 | Middle Tenn St +4 v. Southern Mississippi | Top | 42-32 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
MTSU +4 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I am a little late on this play and I apologize. Got hit by 2 feet of snow today in the northeast and it really threw my schedule off. Either way I love this play for Middle Tennesee and I'll take the points. Southern Miss has a great offense 28th in the country, but they have faced an average 84th ranked defense. I'm not sold on this offense to really take them over the hill because their defense is pretty bad. In their 4 games against "good defenses" they were 2-2 and only 1 game would have covered the spread we get here and that was against UCF in game 1 of the season when they won by 7. Middle Tenn has a solid defense ranked 48th and as it stands right now ranking wise it will be the best defense they have faced all year long, but you can't rank those stats like that because of strength of competition. One thing we do know is MTSU's defense is better than SMISS because they both played the same strength of schedule in terms of offenses they faced (65th average) and MTSU comes out on top and balanced. They also have the defensive front to disrupt SMISS offense. MTSU led the nation this year in tackles for loss and was 4th in sacks. Granted it was against some poor offenses in the Sun Belt, but I do not like Southern Miss' chances here tonight to out score Dwight Dasher the QB of MTSU should have been the conference player of the year he had 21 passing TD's and 10 on the ground. He will take over this game when he has to and SMISS might fall even as favorites. These two teams have one common opponent in Memphis. Both won the game while MTSU won 31-14 and SMISS won 36-16, both games at home. MTSU outgained Memphis by 217 yards while SMISS was out gained by 69 yards. That's good for nearly a 300 yard difference. That tells me that MTSU has a better defense and offense and even though it's a one game sample their is plenty other criteria that I have put into my thoughts on this game. SMISS really has not played well on the road this year going 1-5 while MTSU was 4-2 on the road. MTSU is 8-3 ats in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-2 ats in their last 10 after allowing less than 20 points to an opponent in their previous game. Many may think the passing on both sides will light up the sky but I think this will be a lower scoring game than many think. |
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12-20-09 | Green Bay Packers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 | 36-37 | Push | 0 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Steelers -1 3.3Dime NFL POD Runner Up
Going with the Steelers here I still think this is a good team that wants to make other teams pay and they'll start by beating the Packers. They already took care of the Vikings at home and you know how the Vikings beat the Packers twice. Also coming into play here is the Steelers playing on a Thursday game so they have the extra preparation time for this game. I really like for Big Ben and the crew to do their normal thing, but it will be a higher scoring game than most anticipate from these two who are known for their defenses. |
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12-20-09 | Miami Dolphins v. Tennessee Titans -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
Titans -4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Well I really like the Titans here on Sunday I don't think the Dolphins have the guy to contain Chris Johnson and with Vince Young coming back into the picture that means Kenny Britt will wake up and the offense too. Despite scoring 47 pts last week it was all Young early before he got hurt. The defense also playing well right now should be able to shut down an average Dolphins offense and knock them out of the playoffs. |
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12-19-09 | Central Florida v. Rutgers -2.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers -2.5 3.5 Dime Play
I'll live and die with the Rutgers I'm 1-2 ATS playing with them this year, but I think we have a goo situation here between two teams that on the service look very much similar. Let's start with the trends first. UCF is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big East proving once again they just can not match up with the talent in the Big East. With the exception of Cinnci int he 1st game of the year Rutgers has been able to play in each game. Rutgers is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA. UCF is 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games. If you haven't watched Rutgers the last two weeks they have a new running threat in Mohammed Sanu out of the wild cat which has worked extremely well. I'm not buying UCF's run defense ranked 5th because they face a lot of teams in the conference USA that don't run at all as they faced an average rushing attack ranked 91st. So I think Joe Martinek and Sanu will get what they want in this game on Saturday night. Many are thinking this is a home game for UCF and they may be right, but also note that this is a big recruiting game for Rutgers and Greg Schiano is 3-0-1 ATS in bowl games and this is their 5th bowl game in 5 years. I also like what Rutgers did when they had extra time to prepare as they beat a team that almost mirrors this UCF team in South Florida. With extra time Rutgers took care of UCF 31-0. S. Florida has similar offensive and deffensive numbers to UCF and we all know South Florida is better. It won't be that easy for Rutgers though as the offensive line that is ranked 112th in sacks allowed will go up against the best 1-2 tandem in the nation in Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers combine for 23 sacks. However, I think UCF will have more issues offensively than Rutgers because Rutgers have plenty of offense despite their rankings as they have those rankings against a much stronger opponent out of the Big East. UCF has played just two solid defenses in the top 25 in Miami and Texas where they scored a total of 10 points. The defense falls off significantly after and overall they played a 78th ranked defense compared to Rutgers who faced 53rd ranked. Rutgers is a top notch defense and leads the nation in turnovers forced so look out. Rutgers will have to force a turnover or two in a low scoring game. I think they do in this one.. The only reason why I think this spread is not a bit higher is the fact that UCF's offense started clicking at the end of the year scoring 34, 49, and 37, but note that came against awful defense ranked 108, 103, and 112 in total defense where as Rutgers ranks 19th. |
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12-14-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers +4.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
49ers +4.5 as a 4 Dime NFL POD
I said to myself if the Niners got to +4 I'd take them. I was lucky enough to find it at +4.5 and if you can't get it at that you should buy the 1/2 point. I knew the public would pound this number hard after they watched the Cards beat up on the Vikings big last week on Sunday night. Cardinals are 0-1 ATS in the following week after a Sunday Night game. They lost the next week at home to the Panthers 21-34. While the Cardinals should have plenty of motivation with revenge as they lost to the 49ers the 1st time they also were without Boldin and Breaston. I still think that the 49ers defense without Nate Clements will get enough preasure on Warner to keep the passing game in check. 49ers have 11 sacks in their last 2 games, and they had 3 sacks in the first match up between these two. 49ers at home on Monday Night are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 including 2 wins at home in their last two. This will be the game of the year for the 49ers in my opinion and they'd like to win it to stay in the playoff talks as long as possible. As I mentioned Cardinals are coming off a huge win to the Vikings at home, and while they have been solid on the road at 5-1 they have not in their last two games winning by just 8 points to the leagues worst Rams and then losing @ the Titans. With the exception of 1 loss to the Atlanta Falcons every single one of the 49ers losses has come by 7 or fewer points with 4 of them coming within the number we need to cover here tonight. I think they have an excellent shot at covering this number as they played extremely well against quality teams, and against two similar type teams in the Texans and the Colts on the road they lost by a field goal and 4 points to the Colts. Why I bring that up is because both of those teams have excellent passing offenses and similar type defenses, although the Cardinals are much worse against the pass (31st) than the Texans (17th) and Colts (20th). A lot has changed since Week #1 for both of these teams most notably the 49ers QB who has really benefited from the new spread offense out of the shot gun. I think he's going to surprise the Cardinals defense and Vernon Davis will have a big game. Just one team has given up more TD's (7) to Tight Ends this season and that team is the Lions. While the Cardinals have Boldin and Breaston in this game the 49ers also add a playmaker of their own in Michael Crabtree. Huge game at home for these Niners and as I already say they play up to the level of competition and it's because of this defense. They are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 as dogs and the dog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two. |
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12-13-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. New York Giants +1.5 | 45-38 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Giants +1.5 3-dime play
The Giants took care of business a week ago against the Cowboys now playing their other division rival with their playoff hopes on the line. It won't be a very nice night in new Jersey tonight I expect lots of running and advantage goes to the Giants |
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12-13-09 | Washington Redskins v. Oakland Raiders +1 | 34-13 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Raiders +1 3-Dime NFL POD RU
I'm going with the Raiders in this one. They have been just to impressive at home and Washington making the cross country trip is no laughing matter just look at what the Raiders did to the Eagles when that happened. The Raiders have impressive wins this year over the Eagles, Bengals, and Steelers and they make it another one here against a Redskins team that has a very good defense. I just think the Raiders are a different team under Bruce Gradcowski call me crazy, but I think they get the outright win! |
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12-13-09 | Seattle Seahawks v. Houston Texans -7 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
Take Texans 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I'm going with the Texans here today. Matt Schaub and co. will eat up the Seattle defense traveling west. Seahawks are 25th in pass defense and despite really being out of the playoffs the Texans will continue to fight and play hard in my opinion. Seahawks have had a disappointing season and are 1-5 on the road. Both teams likely will have new coaches next year, but Houston has much more talent on both sides of the ball and still feels like they need to prove that they are better than their record indicates. I think they roll in this game and I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points. |
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12-10-09 | Pittsburgh Steelers -10 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 6-13 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Steelers -10 +103 4DIME NFL POD + 2 DIME BONUS 1H @ -6.5 (-105) Lines by 5DIMES
Listen it has been bad for the Steelers and their defense has not played well, especially without Troy Polamalu. However, I'll give this defense the edge over the Browns. Also coaching Tomlin over Magini on a short week. In the last game the Steelers turned the ball over 4 times to the Browns and still got out with a win 27-14. They also had 543 total yards the 2nd most by any team in 2009. Browns defense has shown it can be good, but not here and not against this type of team and not with the key injuries along the defensive line. Shaun Rogers - gone for the season, and CJ Mosley gone for the season. Those are two key injuries that will give the Steelers an opportunity to run the ball here tonight and play their smash mouth football. Browns are 32nd last in the league in overall defense, 25th against the pass and 29th against the run they will continue to struggle and against a very hungry Steelers team. I don't normally take double digit favorites on the road in a division game but this game to me just screams blow out and it's mainly because of the key injuries up front for the Browns. Now Pit has not played good defense as of late but Brady Quinn has never seen this Steelers defense before even witout Polamalu this team is above average and they have to have a chip on their shoulder after being called out by their coach this week and the media saying that they can't play without Polamalu. Expect an aggresive attack at the line from Pit D, a defense that's ranked #1 against the run still but 17th in passing. I'm not confident Brady Quinn can get his team going and although he has thrown 7 TD to 0 INT's in his last three games that was against the Chargers suspect pass D where all his yards came in the 4th quarter and then most of them came against the bad Lions. Cleveland was down 27-3 to start the fourth quarter against the Chargers on Sunday and had scored just 6 points in their last 11 quarters at home. Then the Chargers defense relaxed and gave up two TD's. Because of that we sit here with a some what of a gift from the oddsmakers because that along with the Steelers 4th quarter collapsed moved this line by 3+ points in my opinion. If the Steelers don't collapse and the Chargers don't collapse in the 4th we likely have a 14 point or more spread. The Steelers have lost their last three games after leading the game after the third quarter. Meaning they will be extremely focused with their playoff hopes on the line here tonight. I really look for the Steelers to open it up on offense being able to run the ball all night and in the predicted weather we are hearing that will be a good thing as they are #1 against the run and I don't see the inexperienced running backs of Cleveland to have a chance to run the ball against the #1 run defense. Steelers will be + in TO margin this time around and win by more than 13. |
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12-07-09 | Baltimore Ravens v. Green Bay Packers -3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Take Packers -3 **4-Dime NFL POD
I have to be honest my other NFL picks have been garbage actually anything but my POD's have been garbage lately. Has to do with bad luck in some cases, but overall the POD's have been hitting and that is what I'm going to concentrate on to close out the season. Not my normal 4.5 NFL POD, but tonight I thought there was value on both sides here. However, then I saw the Packers have some extra time off after Thanksgiving Day, while the Ravens just fought off an emotional win against the Steelers. It was a hard hitting game and it came at a price as their best blitzer Terrel Suggs is now hurt and won't play tonight. That's a big deal considering the Packers lead the league in sacks given up. Packers will have a huge advantage in the mid-range passes as Fabian Washington also out and his replacement Bush should be picked on all night. Ravens are #21 in sack % and with their best out tonight I'd say the Packers should be fine. Common sense would tell most people that the Ravens have the better defense, but on the contrary the Packers at home are giving up just 19.2 pts and 289.5 yards per game, while the Ravens on the road are giving up 20.6 pts and 349.6 yards. Ravens are beatable through the air and the packers have a top flight passing offense with weapons all over the field in Driver/Jennings/Nelson and TE weapons too. If Baltiomore wants to come with the blitz that's fine as backup RB Brandon Jackson has seen a lot of action on the HB screen. So Baltimore's defense has been playing better recently giving up 17 or fewer points in 5 stratight games well if we look at their last three which consisted of Pit, Indy, and Cleveland they faced an average pass offense 18th, and rushing offense 23rd. Those are well below GB's ranks and on the other side GB's defense has been tested more from a statistical perspective facing 16th ranked passing offense and 20th ranked running offense, and the numbers come out identical in terms of yards allowed. Baltimore allowed 277 and Green Bay allowed 278. The biggest difference was GB giving up just 67.7 yards rushing while Baltimore gave up 105 which is above their season average. So will we have a close game here tonight? Yes of course, but even with the field goal as a favorite on Monday Night I feel confident backing the Packers with the extra rest and momentum of playing their best football of the season against a Ravens team that continues to struggle to find consistent play. Their defense will be tested and the offense should be forced into some turnovers themselves as Charles Woodson has become a candidate for defensive player of the year. |
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12-06-09 | Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Arizona Cardinals | 17-30 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Vikings -3 (3.3 Dime Play)
I can't help but go with the Vikings despite what I have seen from the line movement which in my opinion is moving more because of the injury of Kurt Warner and the fact that he is going to play. Well he'll have his hands full against Vikings once again this year as it was the defense that really dominated with a 4 man rush a year ago when they lost big and fell to a 28-0 defecit at half time. Vikings were able to run for nearly 240 yards on 44 carries and Jackson the QB at the time threw 4 TD passes. Now Cardinals have improved their Defense considerably, but the Vikings are so much better than a year ago and they are more balanced than they ever were. #2 in points scored and their defense is #7 in points allowed. A team like that getting just 3 points is awfully hard for me not to pull the trigger on. Arizona has looked dreadful at times at home this year as they lost big to the Colts, and loss big to the Panthers as favorites in both. They also were losing to Seattle a short while ago 14-0, but cruised to a 31-20 win. The point is this team is not as good as many think in my opinion. They play in the NFC's worst conference yet they are still ranked 28th in overall defense and 30th against the pass. |
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12-06-09 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
write up later
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12-06-09 | New Orleans Saints v. Washington Redskins +10 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Take Redskins +10 4.5 Dime NFL POD
I don't know if any one has been paying attention but the Redksins are and have been playing some good ball. Double Digit home dogs today against the best in the NFC off an emotional win against Patriots on Monday. I'll take the Redskins they have the defense to lose within 10 points in my opinion and most likely will. |
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12-05-09 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson +1 | 39-34 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Clemson +1 -105 4-Dime NCAAF POD ru
I'm going with Clemson in this one as they out scored Georgia Tech 20-6 in the 2nd half of their 1st meeting this year. Clemson was able to stop the running game late on route to keep it close. They actually took the lead 27-24 after tailing 24-7 at half time. Georgia ran all over Georgia Tech a week ago and while that's an SEC team it gave CJ Spiller some room for confidence that Georgia Tech can be bullied. I expect it to be all about Spiller today and I expect the Clemson D to be ready for that triple option. They always have the athletes to defend and despite being ran on 49 times for 301 yards the first go around Clemson has the 45th ranked run defense in the nation as well as the 12th ranked pass defense. They should be loading the box and as long as the LB stick to their assignments they will give the offense an opportunity to win. |
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12-05-09 | California -6.5 v. Washington | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Take California -6.5 @5Dimes (3-DIME PLAY)
Do you remember the last time Cal came off a bye and went on the road to play a PAC-10 team. I do they beat UCLA 45-26. UCLA has a much better defense than Washington ranked 37th overall int he nation while Washington ranked 88th. They lost to Notre Dame for crying out loud. However, Wash is a tough place to play just ask any NFL team that goes to play the Seahawks. However, Cal is just to dangerous and Washington's defense is bad enough. They rank 9th in the PAC-10 in many defensive categories and Cal among one of the better offenses. With or without Jahvid Best they've been able to put up the points. Shane Vereen has been more than an able replacement he has 352 yards rushing and 4 TD's in Best's absence. |
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12-05-09 | Florida v. Alabama +6 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
Take Alabama +6 -115 BODOG + Alabama +3 1st Half (1.5 Dimes) Alabama +195 (1-Dime)
This is it it's the game of the year SEC Championship game probably the hardest conference to go undefeated in yet here it is Florida vs. Alabama. Everyone is still all over Florida and it has chased this line up to 6 points. Alabama is much more talented defensively this year than last year and on the other side Florida won't have play makers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy instead Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez are the major weapons. What that means is the 4th quarter come back that Tebow had last year won't happen again this year. If you recall Alabama led 20-17 after three quarters and Parker Wilson was 1-4 with a sack and interception in the 4th quarter while Tebow was 4-4 72 yards. That was the difference. Unfortunately Florida just does not have as many weapons as a year ago which is pretty obvious considering they haven't blown anyone out of the water and they've had tough times moving the football against many teams int he SEC including Tennessee. Lucky for Florida Alabama has had as many issues and has yet to put back to back games together but this is the game Alabama has been looking to win for over a year ever since they let last years opportunity slip away. They find them selves nearly touch down under dogs and will be extremely motivated in this one. Maybe they come up short by a FG or maybe they win by a field goal, but in the end I think Alabama gets this game this year. These teams are just too close for a team to be under dog by 5.5-6 points. I'll go over the key SEC rankings. Scoring offense Florida #2, Alabama #4, Scoring Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2, Rushing Offense Alabama #4 and Florida #1. Rushing Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2. Here is the big difference though Alabama holding opponents 77.1 rushing yards per game while Florida 89.9. This along with Florida missing Dunlap for his DUI suspension is a huge advantage to Alabama. Especially when both teams rely heavily on their running games. Look for Alabama's NT Cody to clog up the middle and the Alabama LB will keep Tebow in check all day long. Folks this is going to be a great defensive game and a classic it has everything but in the end the difference is Red Zone offense and Red zone defense which Alabama ranked #6 in red zone offense in the SEC while Florida 10th, and Red Zone defense Alabama #1 and Florida #3. There you have it and you heard it hear Alabama wins in a slug fest. Enjoy |
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12-05-09 | West Virginia v. Rutgers -1 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Rutgers -1 (3.5 Dime Early Bird Special)
I'm going with Rutgers as West Virginia not only comes off a huge win against Pittsburgh, but has won 14 straight against Rutgers and is now playing on the road on Sr. Day. Rutgers knows what it feels like to lose on Sr. Day to another team. As they did to Syracuse two weeks ago, but against Louisville last week they simply dismantled a very bad Louisville and Schiano added in a new wrinkle for their best player Freshmen sensastion Mohamed Sanu. He operated out of the wild cat threw a TD pass and rushed 148 yards on 18 carries. Look for that to be in the mix as well to keep West Virginia's pass rush in balance. When Sanu is not taking the ball from the wild cat it will be the speedy Tim Brown moving the chains from Tom Savage. Joe Martinek at half back has been up and down and should struggle against West Virginia but he'll get a couple of goal line carries that will matter. West Virginia pulled off the upset a week ago and we were on them to do so against Pitt. Today though they are just under matched Rutgers has the 16th best rush defense allowing just 104 yards per game. Scott Vallone and Charlie Noonan are solid in the middle of the line and the LB support is there too. There are no stars on this team on defense but everyone does what they are supposed to do. IN a year where West Virginia's offense has not been so good this game will be close and low scoring and come down to who forces the turnovers to win the game. Well in my opinion that has to be Rutgers who has forced 30 turnovers meanwhile on the year they have only turned the ball over 10 times. Along with that goes their red zone defense, well let's take a look they have only allowed opponents into the red zone 23 times all year. That's 2nd in the nation behind Alabama. That's impressive and this is a huge game for the Seniors on Sr. Day they would like nothing more to go out against a team they haven't beat in their great 4 years. It's not like Rutgers is getting blown out they have played close games including 2006's 41-39 triple OT game known as one of the best Big East games ever and 24-17 game last year. Rutgers finally gets one. |
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12-04-09 | Ohio +14 v. Central Michigan | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Take OHIO +14 BODOG (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
This should be a great game and even for the MAC that's saying a lot. The MAC will be getting tons of attention tonight in this match up at Ford Field in Detroit. It should be extremely exciting. For me I like Ohio as they have been playing their best football and have the players on defense to stop Mr. Dan Lefevour. Ohio only lost a year ago to the Chips 31-28 and they are playing much better than last year. 14 points is a lot in a championship game and the spread has climbed there due to the unfortunate injuries of Brazil and Scott. Theo Scott has been incredible and in the last two games he has delivered against the MAC's #1 and #3 defenses in Temple and Northern Illinois. Scott delivered with 3TD passes against NILL on 17 of 21 324 yards and 5 total TD's against Temple two rushing. He is now listed as probable and saw some practice time this week. He is the key to this team's chances and a team that was ranked among the worst in red zone offense is now getting into the end zone in their last two games against quality opponents who were playing for a chance at the MAC title. In the end it was Frank Solich's great coaching that has turned this team around from where they were struggling earlier in the season. Ohio has really impressed me more and more each time I've watched them as Scott not only has the ability to run but throw accurate passes while protecting the football. Ohio has forced 35 turnovers this season while Cmich has only turned the ball over 13 times, Ohio is one of the best at taking the ball away via the fumble or interceptions. It's not crazy to think that Ohio can win this game out right as we have seen shocking out comes in the past between the MAC teams in the title games. The east and west are not separated by much as last year it was Buffalo forcing turnover after turnover in an upset over undefeated Ball State. Sound familiar? In 2005 it was Akron getting a last second score to break N. Illinois' heart. Central Michigan has handled everyone in the MAC relatively easily except Buffalo where they won by just a TD. Ohio has a better defense than Buffalo and can stop the pass as they are tops in the MAC in pass effeciency defense. Ohio has had a more challenging schedule in terms of defenses they have seen. They have seen both Uconn and Tennessee and have been in both games losing those two games by a combined 18 points on the road. Now we saw Central Michigan get exposed against Boston College and Arizona. A solid defense can stop the Chippewas. Ohio ranked 35th nationally have the ability to force Lefevour to throw underneath and they have the linebackers to contain him in the running game as linebackers Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are among the better duo in the MAC. Keller at MLB is all over the field and leads the team with 122 tackles. They were able to contain a temple running game that is much better than Central Michigan and if they can get a turnover or two like they usually do they could very well pull off the impossible. In the end what I truly believe is Central Mich will be up by a TD late in the 4th and Ohio will be stopped. Central Mich gets the ball back and gets a few first downs to run out the clock. However, I feel strongly the ability for OHIO to win is there and that is why I am backing them big in this one! |
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12-03-09 | Oregon State v. Oregon -9.5 | 33-37 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Oregon -9.5 (3.5 Dime OE play)
I'm going with Oregon here while Oregon State scares many other people because of their strength on run defense it does not scare me. Now Oregon State can stop the run no doubt about it but nobody runs the option better than Oregon. This is not a straight up power I come stop us type of offense for the Ducks. It's an entirely new dynamic that Oregon State will struggle with just like they struggled a year ago when Oregon went to Oregon State and won 65-38. That defense had 8 seniors with 5 of them now playing in the NFL. This years team although stout and playing above expectations have just two starting seniors. Will they really be able to do a better job than last year's team? While it may not be quite as an impressive win for Oregon they still will win by double digits which is all we need. In Pac-10 home games this year and they've played some big ones they have won by 23, 27, 46, and 39. That's in a conference that is very solid from the top to the bottom minus Washington State. Now I also like Oregon because of the non-conference schedule they chose to play Boise State, Purdue who was a tough match up for them because of their passing game, and Utah. Oregon STate faced one solid team in Cincinnati which may or may not be as good as Boise State. The other two were UNLV and Portland State. Now that was a long long time ago and probably irrelevant in this game, but I thought it be necessary to show clients what they are getting themselves into if they are backing Oregon State. The Ducks have at least 42 points in all seven of QB Masoli's Pac-10 starts this season and I doubt it will not meet that mark here today. Here is where the Ducks have the advantage. Oregon State has a solid offense too in fact much more balanced with the ability to pass or run the ball through the Rodgers brothers. Canfield has come through at QB with big time plays without turning the ball over. Oregon State has just 8 turn overs on the year 2nd to only Cincinnati. However, they have only taken the ball over 12 times. Advantage Oregon which is ranked 29th in TO margin. Canfield will have some troubles against Oregon's tested 29th ranked pass defense which has had injuries and backed up their play regardless. The strength for Oregon is that they can play offense or defense while Oregon STate's strength on defense won't be a strength leading to a double digit loss. Masolli and the speedy LaMichael James will be too much to handle in this one. When Massoli wants or needs to throw the ball he will and can against Oregon State's 92nd ranked pass defense. They don't have the linebackers to cover both and Masolli is not afraid to throw the ball and he has a great weapon to do so in TE Ed Dickson. He is in my opinion the best TE in the country he's got 42 receptions and 551 yards and six TD's. He is athletic and has terrific hands. A few passes to him early will open up the running game for Massoli up the middle a place they have to prove they can run to take over this game early. Oregon at home is the biggest advantage in this one and they will back it up with a trip to the Rose Bowl to face Ohio State with a win here tonight. |
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12-03-09 | New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Take jets -3 (4.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Jets for many reasons here. Yes, the Bills have played better since Juron was fired and the offense is clicking a bit, but let's take note that they faced the Jaguars 26th pass defense and the Dolphins 24th. T.O. will be shut down by the leagues best corner in Darrel Revis and the Jets 2nd ranked pass defense. The defense that had a couple of bad games showed why they were picked to be one of the best defenses earlier in the season last week. They finally forced some turnovers and while Fitzpatrick may be smart as he graduated from Harvard I think the Jets may confuse him this week. Jets are a better team with Kerry Rhodes not starting and that's exactly what will be the case again on Thursday. Although Rhodes got two INTs last week it was more due to bad throws that ended up in his lap. Rhodes the former pro bowl player has been benched by Rex Ryan and he'll likely play out of nickel and dime situations. Erik Smith is the better option in stopping the run something they'll have to do against a very physical Fred Jackson. Bottom line both teams need this game and it's a big advantage and a nice break for the Jets that this game will be played in Canada. Buffalo is one of the tougher places to play inside the AFC East, but Canada won't be an advantage. Look for the Jets running game to click here against the Bills as they rushed for 318 yards in week 6 behind 210 from Thomas Jones. OC of the Jets Brian Shottenheimer finally got the message "RUN THE BALL" and protect your QB. They did that a week ago and they'll do more of it this week with a couple shots down the field to Edwards or Keller. That will be enough to keep the ground moving and I think the Jets D shuts down the Bills. It took the Jets worse game of the year to fall by 3 points the last time these faced in OT. There were 7 turnovers 6 interceptions and countless penalties that cost this team the game late. That won't happen again and Rex Ryan being the emotional guy he is will have this team ready for revenge after losing to this team the last time. |
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11-30-09 | New England Patriots +1.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Take Patriots +1.5 4.5 Dime POD
I have been on fire with my NFL POD's 9-1 now in my last 10. I'll keep it going here tonight with the Patriots. The Patriots are averaging 32.7 points and giving up just 22 on turf this year. I do recall a similar situation where they went on a Sunday Night game against the Colts an undefeated team, on turf. Yes they lost, but it was by 1 point and they led 24-14 at one time and should have won the game. Actually the Saints have many similarities and in the end it's my opinion that the Colts are better. Again I always have to take the AFC team in a close match up. Colts have a better scoring defense and rushing defense, but their passing defense is a little weaker than the Saints 20th ranked vs. 16th. However, the Saints are banged up a bit in their secondary. The Saints have had issues with the AFC this year and were lucky enough to come out 3-0 vs. the Patriots division opponents. Against the Bills they were winning just 10-7 going into the 4th, Dolphins they were losing 34-24 going into the 4th quarter and won, and then vs. Jets they were up 17-10 going into the 4th. All three teams had a chance to win this game. Patriots just seem to know how to beat these type teams or at least stay in the game. Patriots will win in a high scoring affair. |
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11-29-09 | Arizona Cardinals v. Tennessee Titans -2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Take Titans -2 4.5 Dime POD
I'm going with the Titans here at home they got the 4 game winning streak and are playing maybe better than any other team in the league. The Vince Young option has looked amazing and so have the Titans. The Cardinals are good don't get me wrong, but I always take AFC over NFC in this situation except for T-day when I had the Giants. I learned real quick that the AFC is the far superior league over the NFC. Titans want to win out, and the Cardinals just won't be able to match the hard hitting here today and Chris Johnson will run loose! |
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11-29-09 | Seattle Seahawks -4 v. St. Louis Rams | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
ake the Seahawks -4
Seahawks have not played up to their potential this year and the playoffs are no longer possible. However, they can beat up on their division rival here today for a chance to say hey we are not as bad as you think. Rams are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 home games and they will be without Marc Bulger the rest of the year. With the exception of Stephen Jackson this team stinks and you will see that here today. |
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11-28-09 | Tennessee Volunteers v. Kentucky Wildcats +3 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Take Kentucky +3 +100 SIA 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
Not only are Kentucky at home, but Tennessee is 0-3 on the road this year and this is the first time they are favorites. They have some major injuries that are a cause of concern for their great defense. They are extremely thin and it's going to hurt them in this game. You have already seen the line which opened at +3.5 come down in many places and in some places it moved to 2.5 today. I think Kentucky has faced an equally challenging schedule, and in fact they have faced an average defense ranked 41st while TN has faced 46th. Kentucky has a similar rushing attack to Mississippi and maybe even better now that Derrick Locke is 100% healthy. They add WR Randall Cobb int he wild cat and that could spell issues with TN which had all kinds of problems with McCluster out of the wild cat. TN seems to have issues stopping runners that are small and quick, and while Locke fits the bill he's not exactly McCluster yet. I can see Kentucky pounding the ball all day long and dominating the time of possession something TN has got to be afraid of because if they don't get up and they are forced to throw it could get ugly. Even though Crompton has had an excellent season Kentucky has possibly the best shut down CB Trevard Lindley finally getting healthy and helping the defense force turnovers which they did a lot of against Georgia. Derrick Locke also leads the SEC with a 30.5 kickoff return average and is a threat to bring it back every time and should give Kentucky good field position all day long. With that said Kentucky has lost to TN 24 straight times and it's something they are not taking lightly. Both teams are in a bowl game and Kentucky with a win could move to 8-4 and go to an even bigger bowl game which is the goal here. I look for DT Corey Peters to plug the middle and stop Montario Hardesty early giving Kentucky the advantage by getting an early lead. |
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11-28-09 | Marshall +2 v. Texas-El Paso | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
Take Marshall +2 4-dime NCAAF POD RU
I'm going with Marshall in this spot, UTEP has not won a season finale since 1986 and I have no reason to believe they will get one here. Marshall is solid all around and they take advantage of teams with bad defenses as UTEP ranked 109th overall total offense and 109th in scoring defense. They've given up 30 points 4 straight weeks now, and when Marshall faces teams with 100 or worst ranked defenses they are 4-0 averaging 30 points and an average MOV of 20.5 points. For UTEP all they have to play for is to get their RB the national rushing title and they will get a lot of yard on the ground with Bruckham, but Mrshall is #1 in pass defense in conference play, and 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 19ppg in conference play. Marshall has everything to play for as a win and their in a bowl game. They get their runner back in Darius Marshall he's the leagues #3 leading rusher and he should go, and that will help QB Brian Anderson who will be able to set a lot up with play action. If this game is close it will be Marshall winning as UTEP has lost a school record five contests by 7 or fewer points. UAB, also has a great running game ranked 6th in the country and Marshall shut them down to score just 7 points in a win. Look for a similar type game as I think Marshall rolls here 30-14! |
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11-28-09 | Central Florida -3 v. Ala Birmingham | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Take UCF -3 (3-Dime Play)
It's strength vs. strength here as nobody is better at stopping the run in conference USA than UCF as they are ranked 2nd in the nation while as UAB is ranked 6th in the country. However, it's a one man attack for the most part their QB Joe Webb who ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards is the show. Slow Webb and you win the game. Why is this line so low well 17 seniors return from the team that beat UCF 15-0 and they are home and on SR. Day. However, UCF has all the momentum in this playing their best two games in back to back wins of Houston, and then Tulane. The offense has started to gel and they will have more success here today against UAB's pass defense that is the worst in the nation ranked at 120. What has UCF done against poor defenses like this? Well they beat Memphis ranked 118th against the pass 32-14, and then Rice 49-7 ranked 108th against the pass. Look for another 30+ points from UCF and that usually means victory as they are 17-1 when scoring 20+ points over the last 32 games. Guess what UAB has given up 20+ points in all but one game this year. Webb will have his hands filled against this stout defense that has been tested by Houston, Miami and Texas three of the nations top scoring offenses. Webb will be contained by Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers the pair of DE's lead the C-USA with 10 sacks a piece. They also have 26.5 tackles for loss and 14 hurries along with 4 forced fumbles. UAB has been hot to putting up 543 yards per game over their last three, but those opponents defense ranked 116, 115, and 65 in total offense. UCF is the real deal and can shut you down, just ask Houston who struggled who were held to 17 points for three quarters. |
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11-28-09 | North Carolina -5.5 v. North Carolina State | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
Take UNC -5.5 3.5 Dime EBS play
D-FENCE, That's really all I have to say and you won't need to know more, because this will be the best defense NC State sees all year. A defense out for revenge from a year ago when they lost 41-10 to this team. UNC has what I consider to be the best defense in the nation solid against the run and the pass, and a knack for forcing turnovers when DE Robert Quinn gets into the backfield. UNC posesses a better defense than South Carolina the team held NC State to 3 points in game 1, better than the Va Tech defense that held them to 10 points, and again better than the Clemson defense too. So why is this line less than a TD? It has been the Tar Heels inability to put up points that have them small favorites here today, but the offense should be able to run the ball here today in my opinion and if they stack the box to stop Houston Yates, should be able to spread things out and create some match up problems. NC State is ranked 99th in scoring defense, while UNC is ranked 12th in scoring defense two ingredients that set up very nicely for the team with the dominant defense. UNC already beat VA Tech and Duke two teams that NC State lost to and got blown out of the building. I expect Kendric Burney to have a game changing play as he'll be all over the field and will strike fear in the eyes of Russell Wilson who will be confused all day long . Wilson has thrown a pick in each of his last seven games. Make it eight here on Saturday. |
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11-27-09 | Pittsburgh v. West Virginia +1.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Take West Virginia +1.5 3.5 dime NCAAF OE play
I'm going with West Virginia with all the public going on Pitt and several handicappers releasing this as a GOY which I never believe in anyway and have to laugh at I'm going with the West Virginia team that still remembers Pitt knocking them out of the National Championship game two years ago as 4 TD favorites. Give me a healthy Noel Devine and West Virginia at home and I will bet them as under dogs all day long. This is one of the better teams in the Big East and they fought right with Cinci 24-21 loss. This is possibly the first time they had their defense they thought they would have on the field. They can handle and have the players up front in Chris Neild and Scooter Berry to stop the freshmen sensation Dion Lewis from Pitt. It's pretty simple stop Lewis and you stop Pitt. Pitt went on the road to NC State a team that has identical ranks to what West Virginia does on both sides of the ball and they lost by 7 points and were out gained by 114 yards on the ground. That is something that can happen with a healthy Devine on the field with 13 days of rest behind him. Devine gets some breaks here too with a nice backup Ryan Clarke can hit the holes which will give room for Devine outside. West Virginia is 6-0 at home this season and they have all the abilities to pull off this upset. Just so you get what I am speaking of with NC State. NC State's Offensive ranks are 50th total, 21st passing, 88th rushing, 36th scoring, West Virginia 54th, 67th, 33rd, 57th. Not as close as the defensive numbers are NC States 52nd total, 54th pass, 56th rush, and 99 scoring, West Virginia possesses a better D 44, 64, 35 and the big key 32nd. This will be a low scoring game and in the end it'll be Jarret Brown getting out of the pocket away from that great pass rush to make some plays. |
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11-27-09 | Toledo v. Bowling Green -7 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Bowling Green -7@ bodog- 4-Dime POD Runner up
I'm going with BG here today as they are clearly the better team and with a win most likely will get a shot at a bowl game at 7-5. Toledo's defense is simply not good enough and has struggled wtih teams that can pass the ball. Bowling Green has the best passing game in the MAC, and the next closest opponent that Toledo has faced was Western Michigan who put up 58 points on this defense, and Toledo was home in that game. Western Mich who has the 103rd ranked defense is not a team that can stop the passing game like Bowling green ranked 25th in the nation can. If BG gets up early Toledo will have no shot in this one. The closest defenses that Bowling Green has faced was Troy Week 1 where they won 31-14 and Troy actually has a better passing game than Toledo. Then Ball State which has a better defense but worse offense with a win 31-17. Both times they put up the points and were able to contain a passing attack. Look at the common opponent of Miami OH on the road where Bowling Green won 35-14 and Toledo lost 24-31. So again another thing to look at in this match up but what it comes down to his Bowling Green's Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes. Barnes leads the nation in receptions, yards, and Td catches and still has much to prove. This will be the worst defense that Bowling Green has faced all year long and I look for them to get it in the end zone early and often here today. Bowling Green has faced better offenses ranked an average 61 this year while Toledo has faced an average team ranked 83rd in total offense and their defense is significantly worse. So why is this line just a TD? It's because Toledo is more balanced on offense and Bowling Green can't seem to stop the running game, ranked 106th in the nation. See I feel comfortable laying the points and the reason why is this team can get out on top in a hurry and they don't turn the ball over Sheehan just 6 interceptions. Probably the biggest reason was Bowling Green's MAC leading 3rd down conversion defense where the offense they face is successful just 34.6% of the time. They also are 4th in the conference in red zone defense two important ingredients to back a team ATS especially a favorite! |
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11-27-09 | Temple v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Take Ohio +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with Ohio the team with the knack for the big play and turnovers. They are second in the nation with 32 forced turnovers. This defense has been tested before and has answered the bell. They have a more challenging schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced compared to temple who has seen an average 79th total offensive teams this year while Ohio comes in at 67th. The Keys to the game: It's pretty simple to be honest get a lead early. Which ever team gets the early lead is going to win. If Temple can run the ball with a lead Ohio is in trouble, because Temple has the biggest O'line that Ohio will face. However, they came up huge a week ago against N. Illinois a mirror image on offense to Temple holding Chad Span to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of 103 rushing yards. N. Illinois still hung 31 up on Ohio in a loss, but they have QB that has a little more experience than Temple's starter Chester Stewart who can hurt you with his arm and feet, but lacks accuracy as he was just 6-16 a week ago. That's huge especially against a defense that can pick the ball off and I believe they will here today. Stewart is going to have to have a big game against Ohio as they will stack the box to stop the running game that has been hurt by injury their stud freshmen Bernard Pierce 1,349 and 15TD's is out for the game and miniature Matt Brown 5 foot 5 167 lbs won't have the same effect and should be contained by Ohio. With that said if Ohio can contain Brown they will force TO's, and that will allow Theo Scott to hit the mid range passes like I know he can to his very talented receiving duo Brazill, and Price. Price who needs two TD catches to become Ohio's all time leader in TD receptions can take over a game and has game breaking speed. While Brazill is just that guy that reminds me of Hines Ward has a knack for the ball on third down and superb hands. You can also add in Terrence McCrae who will make some plays. Bottom line this game comes down to who can limit the TO's and throw the ball and I put it on Theo Scott the redshirt Sr. to get the job done against his counterpart. Yes, Temple 3-0 on the road in the MAC, but the opponents have a combined 7-27 record, so this will be a completely different situation and environment with actual noise. I don't know if they can handle it on Black Friday! |
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11-26-09 | New York Giants -6 v. Denver Broncos | 6-26 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Giants -6 @ -110 (3.5 Dime NFL POD RU)
I'm going with the Giants in this one, the Broncos are not the only team desperate here. The Broncos simply are not a good team right now I don't care how you spin it as the defense is now ranked 18th against the run after dominating early in the year. They gave up 200+ yards in an embarassing loss to the Chargers at home 32-3. The same Chargers team that beat the Giants 21-20 on the road, but in defense of the Giants they should have won the game. Giants are a very very good road team in fact they are a crazy 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games. How can you not back a team like that. In the Broncos losses they have lost by 23, 18, 10 and 29 so if they lose this game which I think they will it should be by at least a TD to a hungry Giants team. There are a lot of key injuries in this game and in the end I think they wash themselves out with injuries on both sides for both teams. Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 in week 12, and 0-5 ATS following a SU loss, as well as 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Bottom line, the Broncos have lost to teams that are good including Baltimore, Steelers, and Chargers. The loss at Washington was also expected as Washington is very physical and has a very good defense. Again the Giants can win this game on defense and I expect it to be low scoring, but they will win this game by 7+. |
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11-26-09 | Green Bay Packers -11 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 34-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
Packers -11 @ -108 4-Dime NFL POD Over 47 2-Dime Bonus
I'm going with the Packers and the over here. It's bad news for the Lions as their two young stars don't look like they will be playing on Thursday. Stafford is out for sure, and Culpepper will get the start which he did the last time he faced the Packers and what did he do well he got hurt too and combined with Drew Stanton 11-25 105 yards 3 interceptions in a 26-0 loss @ Green Bay. Rodgers on the other hand was great going 29-37 358 yards 2TD 1 INT. Honestly they should have scored more than 26 points and this time around I think they get into the 30's easily. The injuries from the Packers defense is enough for the Lions to score double digits as Al Harris and Kampan create some match up advantages. However, it will be mostly the Packers on this day I am afraid. Throw the short rest road trip out the Packers will be plenty up for this game at 6-4 facing a bad team divisional or not the Packers have played back to back solid games defensively and offensively to move to 6-4. A win here keeps them a step up on the Wild Card competition. If Cleveland's Brady Quinn can move around and throw four 4 TD's imagine what Aaron Rodgers will be able to do. The injuries on defense were huge, but the offense is getting healthy with Clifton back Rodgers won't be getting sacked every other play any longer. Along with that Greg Jennings finally had a big game last week. I look for all that to continue as well as his new favorite weapon Finley TE. |
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11-24-09 | Ball State Cardinals v. Western Michigan Broncos -11 | 22-17 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take W-Mich -11 2.5 Dime National Stage Showdown
I'm taking the points with Western Michigan at home. I know it's a lot of points and Ball State has played close in all of their MAC games until last week when they faced Central Michigan. Western Michigan was an early season favorite in the MAC, but it has been an up and down season. They have an outside shot at getting a bowl game but they'll need to win here to go 6-6. The good news for them is whenever Ball State faces a team with a passing offense they give up points and lots of them. They've faced three teams with top 38 passing games. Toledo (gave up 37pts), Bowling Green (gave up 31 points), and Central Mich (gave up 35 pts). All three of those games have been at home now they'll go on the road to play a desperate team with a passing game. This game could get ugly, as Tim Hiller needs 2 passing TDs to pass Chad Pennington on the all time MAC career passing TD list. There is no doubt this means something and there is no doubt that he comes up with a big time performance. On the other hand Ball State's offense has now gone down the tubes and with Tanner Justice at QB because the starting QB is out for the season. They haven't thrown for more than 134 yards in their last 5 games and with the Wmich defense forcing 3 interceptions a week ago I think they take that momentum into this game. They haven't been able to runt he ball as of late either, and they most likely will get down big ofrcing Justice to throw the ball. You know it's bad news when your coach Stan Parrish said the team lacked enthusiasm, " I think we ran out of juice." That was in a home game on Sr. night. What will happen on their final season game against a team that is thinking of this game as a playoff game. |
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11-23-09 | Tennessee Titans +4 v. Houston Texans | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Take Titans +4 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
I'm going with the Titans since Vince Young has taken over they have won three straight and have put up 30, 34, and 41 points respectively and they weren't playing trash defenses in Jaxonville, Buffalo and 49ers all who I have respect for in their own way. Titans 11-4 ATS all time vs. the Texans have lost the last two SU and ATS but are 5-0 ATS in the previous 5. However, the loss has Titans players burning. Bo Scaife quoted, "We owe them and they know it." Titans man handled the Texans on the ground as Chris Johnson had 197 yards rushing on 16 carries in week2. On the season Johnson averages 6.4 ypc and should be able to run the ball here again tonight against the 13th ranked rushing defense. The key here for the Titans is stopping the passing game of Houston. Andre Johnson had 10 receptions and 149 yards the first time around, but a lot is different this time around. Not only does Schaub not have the cushion or security blanket in Owen Daniels who is on the IR and had 6 receptions 72 yards and a TD 1st time around. This should effect the effectiveness of the Texans passing offense. Titans are ranked 31st against the pass but they are now a lot healthier than the 1st time around and have started to win games because of that health. Additionally these two teams always play close games as the dog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Titans are very good as dogs 9-1 ATS last 10 3.5-10 points and are 16-7 in their last 23 overall as dogs. |
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11-22-09 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Chicago Bears | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Eagles -3 3-dime play
I like the Eagles here tonight despite the extra days off the Bears get from playing the Thursday Night game against the 49ers. Both teams are coming off back to back losses and need a win here to stay in playoff contention. With the Giants winning today as well as the Cowboys the Eagles need a win even more and it will come against the Bears who have struggled with Cutler in his first year at QB for them. He has struggled at night and in prime time he's thrown 11 interceptions in 3 games. Granted those were all on the road but he seems to have a lot of trouble when their is pressure on him and I'm not just talking about physical. He will get physical pressure against the Eagles here tonight as the Eagles are ranked and tied for 2nd in the league in interceptions and sacks. They will surely be sending the house at Cutler and it will be interesting how Cutler responds. I believe you'll know very early int his game what will happen and I think it will favor the Eagles. They are 2-0 ATS on the road in their time zone. They struggle on the road when they are changing time zones. I'm going with the better team off back to back losses. |
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11-22-09 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Take 49ers +7 4-Dime POD
Yes, the Packers showed up and played well against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely needed. Now they will play the Niners who have very quietly been a tough opponent on the road. In the faces of the Cardinals they won, they lost by 3 @ Minnesota in what was a Favre miracle, and they led late in Indinapolis but fell by 4 points all three of those teams are better than the Packers. 49ers also get 3 extra days of preparation time as they are coming off a Thursday win against the Bears. This is a unique situation because the Packers will also be playing on Thanksgiving day and will have the short rest in the back of their minds for sure. The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler 5 times in their last game and their defense is very solid under their head coach Mike Singletary. I wouldn't be surprised to see them shut down Aaron Rodgers at all in what I think will be a very close game in Green Bay. |
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11-21-09 | Hawaii Warriors -2.5 v. San Jose State Spartans | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
I'll be brief here basically San Jose has had a rough schedule and that explains their 116th offense and 117th ranked defense. The reason we have a short line is because San Jose matches up with the strength of Hawaii which is passing as San Jose is ranked 25th against the pass in the nation and they have faced some good passing teams.
The issue here is Hawaii has been able to run the ball as of late and do so against poor rushing defenses. San Jose has given up 898 rushing yards and 11 TD's in their last 2 games. Hawaii's QB can run out of the spread and their HB Leon Wright-Jackson has averaged 9 ypc in his last 27 carries look for him to get the ball early and often against San Jose. Hawaii wants to go bowling and they'll need to win out starting here I expect them to beat the teams they are supposed to. |
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11-21-09 | Purdue v. Indiana +3 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Take Indiana +3 3-Dime Play
If there were ever two teams that mirrored each other more in their rankings and the out comes of their game you tell me who they are. Both Indiana and Purdue are better than their records indicate. Indiana has faced a stronger schedule thus the lower rankings. They have faced both Penn State, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin while Purdue has faced Mich St, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. No Penn State or Iowa yet on the conference schedule yet. So what is the difference here? Well home field is a big advantage and the fact that Indiana is a dog I love it. This game should be pk if anything, but we have the dogs, and I love Indiana because Purdue has been plagued by turnovers all season long with 29. They are a league worst -14 in TO margin while Indiana is the opposite +11 this is probably the biggest difference between the two. As both teams lack a defense especially against the run the two are both dead last in the league in that category. Not only does this team have the TO margin working for them, but they have revenge on their mind as they lost 62-10 a year ago. So they got home field, under dog, stronger schedule and revenge on their side tonight I'll take those odds any time. |
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11-21-09 | Rutgers -8 v. Syracuse | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
pick and write up due back shortly
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11-21-09 | Connecticut +6.5 v. Notre Dame | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Uconn +7 @ -120 buy 1/2 point to 7 points at BODOG
I'm going with Uconn here to be honest I'm fine taking it at 6, but when the line jumped up to 6.5 in some places I always have to take that 1/2 point for insurance I'll pay the 10 cents. Now onto the game, Uconn is 4-5 and still wants to go bowling. This team has been very frustrated by tight losses this season. They have lost all 5 of their games by a total of 15 points. That's a total, and they were impressive in each one of them. Against Cinn, West Virginia and @ Pittsburgh they lost by 2, 4, and 3 points all three of these teams are better than Notre Dame. This will be the worst defense Uconn has faced all year the next closest is Baylor which Uconn beat @ Baylor 30-22 and we know how bad Baylor is. Notre Dame's offense is a bit over rated as they have faced an average 67th ranked total offense, and I don't buy into it as their passing game is what moves the team and they have not faced a good passing defense all year. Uconn is not a good pass defense by any means, but they should be able to do enough offensively and defensively to be a factor in the 4th quarter and have a chance to win this game out right in my opinion. The closest defense comparable to Uconn that Notre Dame faced was Purdue which Notre Dame won 24-21 still would not be enough to cover the spread here. Uconn offensively closely mirrors Pitt, and USC in terms of ranks and Notre Dame gave up big numbers to those teams in losses. Uconn should be able to run the ball with their 1-2 punch in Todman and Dixon both averaging more than 80 yards a game, but what many don't know is Uconn is a balanced offense for the first time in a long time. WR Marcus Easley has become a downfield playmaker and Zach Frazer the former Notre Dame QB will be highly motivated in this game. Uconn is off a bye and has had the extra time to get healthy and prepare for this game so they can try to go bowling. Notre Dame is without another crictical part of this offense in TE Kyle Rudolph gone for the season. |
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11-21-09 | Oklahoma -6 v. Texas Tech | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
write up due back
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11-21-09 | North Carolina +3 v. Boston College | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Take UNC +3.5 3-Dime Early Bird Special
I'm going with the Tarheels yet again on Saturday. In my opinion their may not be a better defense. They are physical up front and should give BC all they can eat as a one dimensional offense they should be worried. Dave Shinske still makes mistakes like a 25 year old and I've loved Boston College in several spots this year and have won, but no longer are they flying under the radar as an under dog. They should not even be favorites here, but the reason is UNC's offense is not good and BC is 6-0 at home. BC has faced the following teams at home this year, Central Mich, NC State, FSU, Wake Forest, Kent, and Northeastern none of which I am impressed about and all of which they should have beaten. North Carolina has already proven they can win on the road and you can't do that without a defense. They have straight up victories at Uconn and Virginia Tech. Whenever BC gets out rushed they lose, and UNC has the 9th ranked rush defense so get ready. While BC has their own great defense, but the 28th ranked rush defense has faced an average rushing attack ranked 68th. I look for UNC to be able to move the ball on the ground and Tyler Yates to come up with a nice little game as he did last week scoring 33 points off Miami. After all BC is beat up on defense and it has to effect this team sooner or later. |
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11-19-09 | Miami Dolphins v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Take Panthers -3 (3.5 Dime NFL POD)
Panthers are on fire and it's mainly due to the fact that they went back to running the ball and the result has been three straight games for Delhomme without an interception. That's impressive considering in the middle of those three games he played the Saints who lead the league in interceptions. While the Cardinals are 10th and Falcons 22nd. The Dolphins stand in tied at 16th with just 8 interceptions. The secondary ranks 28th in the league and I've seen it with my own eyes get picked apart. Also despite having the 7th ranked rush defense I have seen them get run all over by the Jets twice. Now the Jets rank #1 in rushing and have a more aggressive offensive line, but the two are very similar with a better running back in D. Williams. Actually the Panthers went on the road just a few weeks ago facing a similar defense in the Cardinals who are ranked 22nd overall 30th against the pass, and 8th against the run, and 12th in points. Dolphins similarly are 20th, 28th, 7th, 28th. I look for the Panthers to continue to run the ball and pass without turnovers. Dolphins will be fighting something else life without Ronnie Brown. Brown responsible for the majority of the wild cat offense will now be split by White and Williams now I don't know how effective that will be, plus the Dolphins have had just 3 games to prepare for the game and life without Ronnie Brown who is lost for the season. |
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11-18-09 | Buffalo U v. Miami Ohio +4.5 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Take Central Mich -8.5 w/ Miami OH +10
We get Miami OH on a key number and Central Michigan far enough away from 10 if you feel the need to buy down an extra 1/2 point for -8 and +10.5 to avoid the push so be it, but I believe you will be fine. Why Central Michigan? Well first things first, I believe in this team and they had a tough non-conference schedule with all three games coming on the road against Boston College, Arizona, and Michigan State not one of those teams is anything to roll your eyes about all three of those teams are bowl worthy in their respective conferences, ACC, Pac-10, and Big 10. Ball State the MAC darlings a year ago lost much of their talent and have not been able to compete. Their non-conference opponents consist of New Hampshire, Army and Auburn. ust don't see how Ball State can play defense and score enough points in this one to make it a game. I didn't like the 14.5 points Vegas was giving us however as they have played better behind Sr. Tanner Justice who replaced redshirt Freshmen Kelly page. Even then then Justice and the passing game has passed for an average of 59.7 yards per game. This allows Central Michigan to concentrate on Miquale Lewis who is having another strong year, but when Central Mich gets up early as I expect them to it will turn the passing game where it may just be asking to get in trouble. Central Michigan fresh off a 5 turnover game and that was against a solid QB in Zach Maynard. Buffalo is last in the MAC in turnover margin and I don't expect them to win that here tonight either. Look for another huge game from Dan LeFevour on national TV. He has more to prove and wants to win the MAC. Central Mich have won all three of their road games in the MAC all to better teams in Bowling Green, Western Mich, and Buffalo. Why Miami OH? Arguably the toughest schedule in the MAC they have faced non-conference teams Kentucky, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Buffalo played Pitt and Gardner Webb. Miami OH has faced a much tougher road with average opponents in the 50's combined for both total offense and total defense. Much lower than Buffalo which has faced an average 63rd ranked defense and an average 71st ranked offense. That's not even counting Gardner Webb who we can't possibly rank considering they are not Div 1A team. The story here is Miami's Zac Dysert who will look to bounce back from last weeks disaster. He is a shining star in the MAC and could take over next year as the best QB when LeFevour leaves for the NFL. In just 8 starts he ranks third among the conference QBs with 2,417 yards passing. While they lost a tough game to Bowling Green last week it was mostly because of the turnovers as this team got off to a 14-0 lead once it came unraveled it really came unraveled. Look for the Red Hawks to bounce back against a Buffalo team that is licking it's wounds. Buffalo just can't win the close games. Zach Maynard is one of the better QBs in the conference Miami OH 33rd ranked pass defense will be up to the task at hand. I don't know if Buffalo's secondary can stop Dysert who got picked apart late and did not look good against Ohio a team that is more known for its running. A tough loss at home for Buffalo now has to go on the road to Miami OH. If they win here they won't be winning by more than 10 that's for sure. |
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11-16-09 | Baltimore Ravens -10.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
Take Ravens -10 buy 1/2 point 3.5 Dime POD
I can't think of any reason to take the Browns other than what they did a year ago against the Giants at home on Monday Night. Major difference here tonight this is not a non-conference game. Not only is it a conference game, but it's a divisional game and the Ravens have to keep pace with the other wild card teams including the Steelers, and the Jaguars. Ravens are a proud team with a defense not playing up to its capabilities but is still ranked 7th in rush defense this year and shut down the Browns the first time 34-3 sending Brady Quinn to the bench. Quinn back into the lineup off the bye will start for the Browns and I don't see what will change. They don't have a go to receiver and their defense is ranked last in the league. They are 25th against the pass and 31st against the run and 28th in points allowed. Ray Rice is going to have his way with the Browns rush defense all night long which will set up the pass enough for the Ravens to score into the 20's and maybe even into the 30's. Browns on the other hand unless they get some turnovers will most likely not going to score over 10 points in my opinion. |
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11-15-09 | East Carolina +4 v. Tulsa | Top | 44-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Take East Carolina +4 (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
I'm going with the Pirates here on Sunday. They have had 2 extra days to prepare and should be fresh for this game off their tough loss to Va Tech where they lost 16-3 after turning the ball over 3 times. This game should be a bit different as the key to the game for the Pirates is their Sr. QB Pinkney is 3-0 when they face a pass defense not ranked inside the 100 in the nation. Well look what we have here on Sunday Tulsa ranked 111th. They are ranked 36th against the rush, but they have faced an average 82nd ranked rushing offense. I look for East Carolina to have a major advantage up front on both sides of the ball but first on offense. The Pirates have scored 12 rushing TDs in their last 5 games after just 5 in their first four games. Dominique Lindsay is a beast averaging 5.7 yards per carry with 639 yards on the season after missing two games and back ups Jackson and Ruffin have some pop as well. I really like this match up even though they are on the road as Pinkney will have a big game throwing the ball to his target Harris. Tulsa has faced three offenses ranked in the top 60 in rushing the ball and the result were all losses. They started the season allowing not a single opponent of the first 6 to score a rushing TD but now there have been 4 in the last 3 games. East Carolina has faced tougher defenses all year long and it pays off here tonight as they get the much needed win to clinch another bowl birth. On the other side of the ball Tulsa will have to face a defense that has dominated the C-USA. DE CJ Wilson will dominate Tulsa's offensive line which has allowed more sacks than all other schools but three this year. Tulsa QB Kinne will struggle to find his other receivers and turnovers will happen. His one target Damaris Johnson will be double covered all night long forcing Kinne to force throws. Before their 45 points against Houston which is awful defensively by the way Tulsa averaged just 21 points in their previous 4 games. Bottom line I'm going with the better defense and the better running game in this game. I feel fortunate to be catching points in this match up. I don't think Tulsa rebounds here on Sunday from their devastating loss against Houston. I'm not sure how resilient they are but East Carolina smells the 4 teams 1 game behind them and needs a win just as bad. |
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11-15-09 | Philadelphia Eagles v. San Diego Chargers +1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Take Chargers pk 4.5 Dime POD
I got some great insider info on this game to play it hard. I can't help but play it and we remember what the Eagles did the last time they were out here don't we? The Oakland Raiders beat up on the Eagles. yes, the Oakland Raiders. Eagles looked very ordinary last week in a loss to the Cowboys at home and now have to go back out west. They played back to back hard hitting games against division rivals in the Giants and the Cowboys and now going out west to play a team that is just hot at the right time. Look for the Chargers to take this game by a TD |
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11-15-09 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Miami Dolphins -10 | 23-25 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Dolphins -10 3-dime NFL POD RU
Okay I know the Bucs looked good against the Packers, but the Packers are not that good! Rodgers was sacked 6 times in the loss, and the Dolphins are a completely different team than the Packers who love to throw the ball. TB is not the best at going on the road and now it will be Josh Freeman's first game on the road Sunday vs. the hard hitting Dolphins. Freeman will come back to earth on Sunday I believe and the Dolphins will be able to run all day long as they have the #4 ranked rushing offense and they will go up against the Bucs #30 rushing defense. It's a mismatch and the Dolphins are pressured to stay in the race for the AFC East. Bucs are also ranked #28 in total offense and I doubt they'll be able to run the ball at all against the Dolphins #5 ranked rush defense. The rush defense is under rated in my opinion even so at #5. This is going to force Freeman to have to make plays and against the Dolphins poor secondary he may look good at times, but in his first road start he's going to throw a few picks that will result in poiints and cash in our pockets. The Bucs are 0-3 on the road losing by 19, 3, and 13. I expect another pounding here on Sunday |
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11-15-09 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +2.5 | Top | 19-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
Take Panthers +1.5 as 4-Dime POD
79% of the public is on the Falcons on Sunday and the line has not moved, but that is not the only reason why I feel the need to go with the Panthers in this spot. Panthers lost in the first match up 28-20, but they out gained the Falcons on the road 440-371. Since that game they have played much better and have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents and are 3-2. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and come in with the #3 rushing attack and they will go up against the Falcons who have the 24th rushing defense. Panthers at 3-5 need this division game to salvage their season if they have any hopes of returning to the playoffs. The combination of them playing at home and the Falcons struggles on the road have me loving the Panthers on Sunday. The Falcons are 1-3 on the road this year and their only win was @ SF in a rout. They will face the overall #9 total defense which is mostly solid against the pass but ranked #23 against the run. However, Ryan has struggled as of late and I think the Panthers D will have a big advantage here on Sunday. |
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11-14-09 | Auburn v. Georgia -4 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Take Georgia -4 (4-Dime POD RU)(1-5scale) -105 @ BODOG
I'm going with the Bulldogs on Saturday despite their struggles they will get a nice boost when A.J. Green returns the lineup on Saturday. To me Auburn is still under rated and I said that in one of my bigger games of the year when I took Arkansas at home over Auburn and Auburn took care of business 44-23. Actually Auburn has only played 3 games on the road and this one being their 4th they lack the experience to win a big time game here on Saturday. They also lost @ LSU 10-31. Georgia played LSU too and lost by just a TD and were out gained by 100 less yards than Auburn. The strength of schedule that Georgia has faced compared to Auburn is miles away in terms of what kind of defenses Georgia has had to go up against. An average 32nd ranked total defense compared to auburn's 50th ranked. While Auburn was off playing Furman, Ball State, and La Tech in non-conference play Georgia were being men in games against Oklahoma State and Arizona State from the Big 12 and Pac-10. Either way that's just a small sample, but Georgia which has better defensive rankings to begin with has also faced better offenses an average 59th ranked opponent to Auburn's 67th. Along with that Georgia also gets their best player back and home field advantage on their side against a team that has struggled on the road. Auburn may lead the SEC in yards and second in scoring but most of them came against Ball State and Furman. They really are not as good as a 7-3 team. Take those two wins out and send them to play a Pac-10 and Big 12 team they could be sitting at 6-4 or 5-5 easily. However, I'll take it because Vegas is giving us less than a TD in a game where the better team will win. Not only does Georgia have that on their side they also have the fact that they need a win here to get into a bowl and Auburn does not. Georgia leads the SEC in fewest sacks allowed with just nine this year. So try again Auburn if you think you'll get to Cox pretty much their biggest defensive advantage. The X-factor! Auburn has struggled in punt returns as they have had five returners and 4 have fumbled. This will be a huge advantage all day for Georgia if they have to kick because they have the nations best Punter and it's not even close. Drew Butler's 49.2 yard average on 40 punts leads the nation by almost 4 yards. |
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11-14-09 | Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +3.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Take UNC +3.5 (3.5 Dime oddsline error)
The wrong team is favored here. Did anyone pay attention to what North Carolina did against VA Tech. The same VA Tech took care of Miami 31-7 and out gained them by 161 yards. Well UNC won @ Va Tech 20-17 and were +56 yards in the game. That's just one game of course, but UNC has probably the best well rounded defense in the nation and clearly will be Miami's most challenging task all season in my opinion. They are ranked 5th in total defense, 5th against the pass, 8th against the run and 11th in scoring defense. The best defense Miami faced was Va Tech and we saw their struggles in that game. With this game being on the road against UNC I love the dog here. Yes UNC's offense has not been real effective all year long, but I can see Yates stepping up to make some big plays in this game. Either way this game should go down to the last seconds, and in the end I'm taking DE Robert Quinn and that nasty defense to hole Miami to season lows and win the game outright. |
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11-14-09 | Tulane +3 v. Rice | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
Take Tulane +3 (5-DIME NCAAF POD)(1-5 SCALE)
This is Rice's best shot at winning a game this year, but you won't know it at all as they are going to lose this game to a Tulane team that's 3-6 and not much better, but the coach is selling a 6-6 and a chance at a bowl bid. I'm buying what he's selling on Saturday and I think it's an awful match up for Rice unfortunately. This will be the worst offense and worst defense that Tulane has faced all year. They have had a strong schedule and what Rice does well is pass the ball and even there they are ranked 67th in the country and that was against an average 79th ranked opponent. Saturday they will face Tulane's C-USA leading pass defense that is ranked 51st in the nation. They have surely been tested facing an average opponent ranked 57th. Rices defense is yielding almost 44 points a game and Tulane should be able to move the ball as they have continued to improve throughout the year. QB Ryan Griffin will make his fourth start. He had his most impressive start in his last game throwing for four touchdowns and no picks against UTEP in a come back win. This was a nice win for Tulane and should create all the momentum going into this game against a very bad Rice team. Tulane has the best players on the field with RB Andre Anderson getting the carries and WR Jeremy Williams. Coach Bob Toledo is supporting his team going for the chance to win out, and is not under estimating a winless Rice team considering they got romped a year ago 42-17. However, he said, "We were so beat up by then and we had lost Andre in the first quarter, they were a different football team we're a different football team." I look for Tulane with the right attitude of wanting to win 3 more in a row and to get the revenge against a Rice team they should handle. Tulane can move the ball through the air or on the ground against this team. These teams have only one real common opponent and it was both home games against Tulsa. Both teams lost, while Rice was out gained by 194 yards, Tulane was only out gained by 48. Again the strength of schedule and the offenses that Tulane have faced will help them in this game against a Rice team ranked 112th in total offense and their ability to use their strength to shut down the only thing Rice does well which is pass the ball. |
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