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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-11 | Tulsa v. BYU +1 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
BYU +1 (4.4* NCAAF POD) BYU is ranked 16th in overall defense and although Tulsa has 23rd ranked offense have they really face a team of BYU's defensive caliber? Yes, two teams UCF and Boise ranked 15, 16th while BYU is of that same being extremely balanced. Overall though Tulsa has faced a 72nd average total defense. They did not fair well scoring just 24 and 21 points in the Boise and Central Florida games. To me BYU flipped their season with their change at QB to Riley Nelson although Jake Heaps played well down the stretch we could see both QB's tomorrow afternoon as I think they'll both expose Tulsa's 118th ranked secondary and 89th total defense. Both teams are good at stopping the run BYU I think will really give Tulsa a run for their money I think they'll surprise them on how big and strong they are up front. They only allowed 2.95 ypc on the road this year. I think the fact that both teams can stop the run that this game gets put in the hands of each QB and GJ Kinne has been good but when it comes to big games he's come up really small. Let' sbreak down the pass defense a little more because BYU really is much better despite Tulsa's ranking being so hlow they have faced some pretty good offenses so they're not as bad as they seem, but still I take BYU and their QB in this match up. BYU is 40th in pass efficiency defense while Tulsa is 71st. 20th in QB rating and Tulsa is 63rd. BYU is 19th in yds/att defense Tulsa 74th. I trust BYU's pass defense more and they have allowed 14 less sacks. More numbers on 3rd down BYU is just so much better on both sides of the ball. Offensively they are converting 53% of the time and an incredible 64.5% over their last 7 games. Their defense is giving up 36.97% on the year and 33% on the road while Tulsa is 42% on offense and 43% on defense. These same trends follow us to red zone offense and defense and this is where the game will be decided. Both teams are pretty even in offense getting to the red zone 51 and 53 times a piece. BYU has converted 61% into TD's and Tulsa 58.49%. Defensively though BYU is #3 in the nation allowing just 42% TD's on only 33 attempts meanwhile Tulsa has allowed 48 attempts and 58.33%. Bronco Mendenhall is 4-2 in bowl games with BYU.
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12-29-11 | Washington +10 v. Baylor | 56-67 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
I think these under dogs are going to start to roar and this is fitting Steve Sarkisian won last year as double digit dogs against a good Nebraska team with a mobile QB and now he finds himself as +10 dogs at some places and I
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12-29-11 | Notre Dame +4 v. Florida State | Top | 14-18 | Push | 0 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Notre dame +4 5.5* play + notre dame +155 3* play notre dame under 47 3.3* play
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12-28-11 | Toledo -3 v. Air Force | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
5* ncaaf pod
Love Toledo a team that nearly went to Ohio State and won, but allowed Ohio State to come back to win 27-22. |
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12-27-11 | Louisville +1.5 v. North Carolina State | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Louisville +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Louisville tonight they can eliminate an aspect of NC State and make them one dimensional and that's the running game which is ranked 107th anyway. Give Strong 4 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional offense that can't protect their QB's and I see Louisville which has been an under dog all year coming up with another big win. I mean they put up 34 points in back to back games to close out the regular season against two very talented defenses in South Florida and Uconn and now they play another talented defense in NC State. Now take a look because NC State has had a much easier schedule to get to this point as they've faced two FCS foes and the average defense as far as total yards allowed was 60th compared to Louisville's opponents which came in at 45th. Louisville had to go up against 5 top 20 rushing defenses from ypc stand point and they themselves are ranked 9th. NC State did not play too well vs. Cincinatti ( Big East Opponent) and FSU who are the closest in scoring defense and rushing defense both in the top 10 too. NC State lost both those games by a combined 14 to 78. Now Florida State and Cinci had a better pass defense and more explosiveness on offense in the regular season so I do not expect a blow out here, but I do expect Louisville, a very young team to benefit big time from these extra practices and they'll continue to do what they do which is win as under dogs. NC State's biggest strength is taking the ball away they're ranked 6th, but Louisville only turned it over a total of 19 times this year and they faced Uconn #3 in takeaways and Rutgers 12th and they won both of those games.
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12-27-11 | Western Michigan +3 v. Purdue | 32-37 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Mich +3 (3.3* play)
This game is pretty dead even so it only makes sense to take the under dog. |
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12-26-11 | Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Falcons +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 (5.5* NFL POD) These two teams know each other so well and match up pretty evenly as they are built to beat each other. The last 4 games have been decided by 3 points or less. To me Atlanta has now really come together over their last few games and can go punch for punch with the Saints. They also have more balanced in my opinion and the more talented receivers in Julio Jones (finally healthy) and Roddy White and then they got Tony Gonzalez over the middle. Michael Turner though could be the difference he has 50 carries in his last 2 games at New Orleans and it resulted in 265 yards. The run game should be a huge factor in the red zone for Atlanta because you can't really match up one on one with White, Jones or Gonzalez I look for option runs up the gut with Turner walking into the end zone. At the end of the day both teams are playing their best football and it should be close throughout and come down to yet again a field goal. Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 in New Orleans and the dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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12-26-11 | North Carolina +6 v. Missouri | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
North Carolina +6 (4.4* NCAAF POD); UNC +210 (1* bonus) To me this game is simple. Which team can stop the run and turn the other into a one dimensional team and to me at least the answer is obvious North Carolina. Both teams are quite similar with talented defensive lines and talented sophmore QB's, but the injury to Henry Josey from Missouri went down it was a huge loss as he was averaging over 8 yards per carry. Missouri hasn't been the same. When they played Kansas at the end of the year they averaged just 3.5 ypc on 47 carries and Kansas was last in the nation in run defense from a ypc statistic allowing 6.1. North Carolina has more of a power running game with Giovani Bernard ranked 23rd nationally with 102 yards per game. Last year Missouri got gashed by a power running game in their bowl game and while I think they're more equipped to stop it this year I think they'll have a better day on the ground than Missouri. Missouri is ranked 40th in ypc allowed while North Carolina is ranked 15th. This game should be put into the hands of both talented sophmore QB's in Bryan Renner and James Franklin. Their numbers are very similar and they'll both face struggling pass defenses in UNC 90th in yards allowed, Missouri 91st. Renner however is the guy I'm taking as he's much more accurate #1 in the ACC 68.8% compared to Franklin 63.3%. Renner plays with the poise of an upperclassman and Missouri lacks a true field stretcher with most of their throws coming under neath dinking and dunking where UNC can take some chance to make stops. Meanwhile Renner has Dwight Jones - 6-4 225 who had 79 receptions 1119 yards and 11 TD's. Renner is also averaging 1.3 more yards per attempt. Which QB will have more success in the red zone? To me again advantage to the Tarheels. UNC and Missouri both got to the red zone similar amount of times. Missouri 51 times and UNC 46 times, but Missouri converting 64% into TD while UNC at 72%. Defensively UNC again holding the advantage allowing 4 less attempts this season and holding opponents to 10% less TD's 45 to 55% in the red zone. This is a huge advantage considering both teams were just 60% on field goals this year. In the end both teams are pretty even. UNC is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog while Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on neutral fields. Missouri won't have as much of an advantage here and I think they under estimate UNC's skill expect some talented match ups and one of the better played bowls of the young bowl season.
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12-25-11 | Chicago Bears +13.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Bears +12 (4.4* POD); Bears +18; U48 2.2* bonus Last I checked the Bears are still playing for a playoff seed as they can get in with 2 Falcons losses and 2 wins. Now they make a switch at QB once again and it can only be for the good as Hanie threw 3 interceptions in 3 of 4 games and really cost this defense. Enter Josh McCown which should not excite anyone, but I don't think he'll turn it over at that rate giving the Bears some sort of shot here. This is a divisional opponent and I just can't see the Bears getting blown out in this spot. Especially.... Since Rodgers and the Pack just lost last week and now they are resting two tackles and Greg Jennings is still out. How many times are they going to let Aaron Rodgers stay back there and get hit by Julius Peppers if guys can't get open and they can't block? Expect more runs from the Pack than usual and the feeds right into the Bears hands as the 8th ranked run defense and they are better than that number suggests in my opinion. Either way this is a close game between two divisional opponents with the Bears having much much more to play for here. Both teams will run the ball a lot leading to a quicker game which is why I also like the under in a teaser with the Bears. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a dog 10.5 +.
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12-24-11 | Nevada +8 v. Southern Mississippi | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
Nevada +8 (4.4* POD) Over 57/Nevada +14 (2.2* teaser) Love Nevada and I think a lot of points get scored tonight as both teams have balanced offenses and are int he top 15 in scoring points. Souther Miss coach Larry Fedora is headed to North Carolina but oddly enough administration is letting him stay to caoch I don't know where his motivation is for this game nor do I know what it is for the team after they upset Houston in the Conference Championship, but look for it to have an impact on this game. First do not sleep on a WAC team as LA Tech nearly upset both Houston and Smiss losing by a combined 3 points and Nevada had a 20-3 lead over LA Tech in the 4th quarter before losing 24-20. I think Nevada's offense is more explosive and is converting 49.14 % on 3rd down while Smiss is at 43.5% both teams are the same defensively on 3rd down and Smiss gets much worse on the road 46%. Red Zone action, both teams have gotten there 55 times this year and Nevada 60% of the time turns them into TD's while Smiss 54.5%. Also Nevada is allowing 9 fewer attempts by opponents into the red zone. Game will be played on turf and Smiss is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on turf while Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as dogs.
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12-24-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +2 | 19-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Eagles/Seahawks +7.5/+8 3.3* Teaser
Seahwaks +2 (3.3* play) Love the Seahawks in this spot they've been playing great and the 49ers are off extremely short rest playing a hard hitting game vs. the Steelers on Monday night in what was an emotional win and now they have to turn around and play one of the hotter divisional opponents in the Seattle Seahawks. Willis and Ginn and Edwards are all expected not to play and that will be huge because that means more running for the 49ers and Seattle is stout vs. the run ranked 11th in run defense and 4th in with just 3.7 ypc. Seattle is believing they still have a shot at the playoffs and Marshawn Lynch is playing better than any running back in the league. Another difference will be when the 49ers try to pass they will struggle as the Seahawks have 15 sacks in their las t5 games. They also match up very well in the secondary because they are big and actually have the guys that can cover TE's so I think Vernon Davis will struggle here. 49ers are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 as a road favorite and 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 following a SU win of 14 or more points. Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a home dog and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. |
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12-24-11 | Philadelphia Eagles +1 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Eagles/Seahawks +7.5/+8 3.3* Teaser Eagles +1.5 (4.4* PLAY) Love the Eagles they are fast and confident right now and remind me much of San Diego in their situation. The team is finally gelling and their one weakness is stopping the run and the injuries to the Cowboys running backs is really what is going to be the difference in this game. Romo has 18 TD to 2 interceptions in his last 7 games but he has an inability to blow teams out when the Cowboys most need him. The defense has been the issue for the Cowboys and trying to stop this 2 headed monster in McCoy and Vick right now is no easy task. I think the Eagles just finally started to play together and they are more healthy than they've been all season. Expect them to dominate this game much like they did a week ago vs. the Jets.
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12-24-11 | San Diego Chargers +2 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
Chargers +2 5.5* NFL POD Love the Chargers today they are just hot right now they are better defensively and right now on offense they are better especially when it comes to balance. They can run the ball and pass and Antonio Gates should have a nice day as the Lions seem to be a little weak in the middle of the field. Chargers have put up 38, 37, and 34 in their last 3 games and they played Jaguars and Ravens defenses in 2 of those 3 games both better equipped to stop opposing offenses than the Lions. Detroit on the other hand has literally no running game and SD is allowing less than 14 points the last 3 weeks and they own the 6th ranked pass defense. There is a reason why SD leads the league in fewest passing attempts per game against them. Teams do not want to throw on them. This game comes down to these two QB's and DET is allowing 68% per pass in their last 3 while SD 55%, Offensively both QB's are hot right now, but Rivers last 3 games is hotter 75% of his passes have been completed compared to Stafford 66%. On the season both QB's sack % per drop back is very similar at 5.63% to 5.15 % with Stafford holding the advantage but Rivers over the last 3 games just 2.33% compared to Stafford 7.44%. Chargers just have more experienced and are used to these late season must win games and the Lions are not. San Diego is 23-9-3 ATS in their last 35 as a dog 18-8-3 ATS in their last 29 as a road dog while the Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
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12-24-11 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Washington Redskins | 33-26 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Vikings +7 (4.4* NFL POD) Vikings play the Redskins as the REdskins just came off a huge divisional win against the Giants. They are going to be ripe for a let down in my opinion and when you break down the numbers the Redskins really are not that different from the Vikings who have proved they can put up points and stop the run. Vikings have Ponder who has been very athletic in the pocket and rolling out and that seems to be the one thing that has given the Redskins issues athletic QB's. Washington offensively is even with the Vikings with 3.1 attempts in the red zone, but the Vikings are putting those attempts into TD's 57% of the time which is 9th in the league while the Redskins are 26th at 43%. However that evens up a bit considering the Redskins are 2nd in RZ defense with just 39% of opponents attempts turning into TD's while Minny is 16th. I bring that up because it shows how even these teams are. I see this as a 3 or 4 point game the Redskins play a lot of close games and are 7-19 ATS in their last 26as a home favorite 3.5 to 10 points. I've made a lot of money on the Redskins, but I only play them as under dogs. The Vikings are not this far off from being a winning team they've been competitive pretty much all year and should be a TD dog on the road vs. a Redskins team that does not have much fire power
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12-24-11 | Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
Cardinals +4.5 (2.2* play) Cardinals are still mathematically alive for the playoffs and the Bengals have gone ice cold 2-4 in their last 6 weeks while the Cardinals have 4 wins and 6 of 7 in their last 7. Dalton has not thrown for over 200 yards in the last 3 weeks in a row and he'll have his hands full once again as Arizona has a very under rated defense ranked 4th on 3rd down completion percentage allowing 32% conversions. Bengals again I like them just not as favorites they are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 as a favorite. Let's talk red zone. Obviously Cinci is getting there more, but again %'s both on offense defense are better for Arizona they have a higher score % and a lower Score % allowed making it an easy way to cover 4.5 points. I can see them trading a TD for a field goal at least once and I don't see this as a double digit win for either team giving us a great shot to cover the 4.5 points
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12-22-11 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
HOU/IND U40.5 (4.4* pod); Colts+7 (2.2* bonus) Okay so it's obvious the Texans will be spending a lot of time on the ground and can they put up big scoring numbers? I don't think so as the Colts are not that bad vs. the run allowing 4.1 ypc good for 13th. Texans just lost to Carolina who were 24th allowing 4.6 ypc and they didn't lose on the road they lost at home, meanwhile the Colts got their first win and I'd say this game is important to them because they have dominated the alleged rivalry from previous years and this team is proud and should come out in front of their fans and put up a good fight. I doubt the Texans will be dropping back risking another QB injury considering the Colts can rush the passer. Plus teams have definitely caught up to Yates and even over their last 4 games they have only scored 13-20 points per game. Colts won't score much either keeping things one the ground and Houston's top 5 defense should keep this one easily under the total. I see a 17-14 17-13 type game.
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12-22-11 | Arizona State +15 v. Boise State | Top | 24-56 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Arizona State +14.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Arizona State is a time that really lost a lot down the stretch after starting 6-2 and being nationally ranked. Their defense turned south, but they continued to score points and that's why I like them still tonight. On the shoulders of Brock Osweiler I think he'll be able to score enough points to cover this spread. Why would Arizona State be pumped for this game? Despite not going to a BCS or even in their conference championship this team is playing a top 10 team so defeating them would send the seniors out on a high note and this is a senior laden team. Dennis Erickson stepped down or fired or whatever will coach his last game. I believe preparation will be at a premium. Not many people know their last game or their last hoorah but Erickson in this situation does. He's got an impressive resume from his Miami days and his days in the NFL and I believe he'll have some special things for Boise tonight that will allow them to cover the spread. On the flip side Boise had just 14 sacks in their last 11 games and they allowed 10 TD passes in a 3 game span vs. UNLV, TCU, and SD State. Osweiler runs the 10th ranked passing offense and should cause fits for Boise defense. Boise of course is an offensive machine behind Kellen Moore's 41 TD passes he has not lost a beat all year long despite losing his top two WR to the NFL Draft. AZ has the talent up front to get into the backfield and stop the run. Boise only ran the ball 4.54 ypc and just 4.22 in their last 5. That's productive but not enough to dominate a game and cover this spread. Arizona State at one time was the #1 team in the league in sacks and forced turnovers and they did finish with 29. I think the outstanding LB Vantaze Burfict who quit on his team in the last game will be highly motivated and even motivational to his teammates. I do expect to see some of that momentum on Arizona State's side throughout this time. Will it be enough to win? I doubt it, but if they can get back to where they were earlier in the year on 3rd down defense holding Oregon 3 for 11 and holding various other opponents under 30% they can win this game. On the year they have held opponents to 34% conversions and even their red zone defensive TD% allowed is lower than Boise 53% to Boise's 64%. Secret weapon would have to be kick returner Jamal Miles. He's got returns of 98 and 95 yards and a punt return for a TD of 78 yards look for this to be an advantage in this game. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 10.5+ while Boise just 0-6ATS in their last 6 as favorites 10.5+.
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12-21-11 | Louisiana Tech +10 v. TCU | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
L.A. Tech played some quality teams and won 7 straight down the stretch.
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12-20-11 | Florida International -4 v. Marshall | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
If you have been following me this year you know that I
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12-19-11 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Francisco 49ers -1.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
49ers -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD); 49ers +3.5/U44 3.3* teaser Love the 49ers here tonight this is a huge game for them to keep the #2 seed in the NFC for home field and they go up against a Steelers team that has struggled this year when it's had to play a top 5 defense going 0-3 losing twice vs. the Ravens and once vs. the Texans. 49ers are ranked 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Big Ben will play it looks like although they should hand the ball off quite a bit in this one and that plays in the hands of the 49ers who own the leagues #1 run defense. I expect this to give the Steelers tons of issues especially since they have not played that well on the road even against mediocre teams. 49ers may be without Patrick Willis, but the Steelers are surely without James Harrisson which makes that a wash. I like the fact that the 49ers just do not turn the ball over with Alex Smith turning it over just 5 times. Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. 49ers are 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 home games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Monday night games. The under is 37-18 in the Steelers last 55 road games as a dog. It's obvious this game turns into a defensive affair and I'm banking on the 49ers coming up big at home.
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12-18-11 | Detroit Lions -1 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 28-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Lions -1 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Lions, they simulated a 4 game playoff run last year and went on a run and I believe they duplicate that on their way to the playoffs. They control their own destiny and Oakland right now has lost their strength, the ability to run the ball is basically gone as Bush has less than 3 yards per carry over the last 3 games. Lions are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite .5 to 3. Look for the Lions to really push the pocket on Carson Palmer who has made all kinds of mistakes since coming back to the NFL.
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12-18-11 | Washington Redskins +7 v. NY Giants | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
Redskins +6 (3.3* play) Skins can play, the Giants are off a big emotional win and they allowed over 100 yards rushing to Felix Jones look for Roy Helu to have his 4th straight game of 100+ yards rushing. Washington won by 2 TD's in the first match up this year, and I believe they can play against their division rival all day long keeping this one close. Even Rex Grossman should have success as he's been playing well and in week won he threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's. The Giants are having all kinds of breakdowns in their secondary so both the ground and the air should be open to Rex Grossman and the Redskins. This one will come down to a field goal but I'm going with the more balanced offense and defense in the skins.
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12-17-11 | Louisiana-Lafayette +4.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 32-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
ULLAF +4.5
One team is thrilled to be in the New Orleans bowl and the other is disappointed as they had higher hopes for 2011, but it |
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12-17-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
Bucs +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Cowboys are on back to back disheartening losses and I'm curious to see how they can dominate an opponent like the Bucs who have lost 7 games in a row, but the Cowboys are 2-4 on the road and even in their 2 wins they won by a FG in both and I expect a very close game the Bucs are not as bad as they have played. Statistically the main difference between these two teams is turnovers and Josh Freeman is having an awful year, but I think he bounces back when he returns home if they start handing the ball off to Blount and being more conservative this team can absolutely pull the upset and hopefully save their head coaches job. Raheem Morris is said to be on the hot seat now and I think his team plays for him tonight at home. Some stats that are just too similar to give the Cowboys a TD fav on the road. For one TB and Dallas are both averaging 19 ppg when TB is at home and Dallas is on the road. Dallas is giving up 24.7 on the road while TB is allowing 25 so it seems that both teams are scoring and allowing the same amount of yards. Also 3rd down defense, TB is not terrible in fact they are slightly better than Dallas with 39% both are ranked 17th and 18th. Run defense too Dallas is allowing 4.2 yards per carry on the season overall while TB 4.6 is worse, Dallas lost Demarco Murray who was averaging a yard better than Felix Jones this season. Red Zone offense both teams are ranked low Dallas 25th with just 46.3% TD in the red zone while TB is 27th with just 43.75%. Really don't understand the spread here as Dallas is also 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 as a road favorite and TB is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.
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12-17-11 | Temple v. Wyoming +7 | 37-15 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Wyoming +7.5
Temple is one dimensional and although Wyoming has given up chunks on the ground all year long and are ranked 115th in stopping the run Temple has been inconsistent and Bernard Pierce has not always stayed on the field. Wyoming also has had to deal with balanced offenses all year long their only 4 losses came to some pretty good teams TCU, Boise, Nebraska etc. All have better offensive schemes than Temple who is 117th in passing the ball. Wyoming is actually pretty big up front their linebackers are just a little slow, but now this team with extra preparation gets an opportunity to move their safeties up to help in the running game and I think that |
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12-12-11 | St Louis Rams +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Rams +10.5 (4.4* NFL POD) Betting makes any game interesting and we love the fact this is an in division rival with both teams knowing each other well. The Rams have double revenge. The Rams lost at a chance at the playoffs last year because of the Seahawks so you bet they want this game. Who are the Seahawks to be laying this many points? This is just the second time the Seahawks are favored all year. The first they lost at home to the Redskins as -3. I know Bradford is questionable but judging by the line movement I'd be he plays. Either way both teams will spend most of the night on the ground running. That will shorten the game quite a bit and in those type of games I'm going with the under dog especially when it's a double digit favorite. Rams last in the league in run defense actually held Lynch in check last time holding him to 88 yards and 27 carries.
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12-11-11 | NY Giants +4.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Giants +4.5 (4.4* NFL LNF) Like the Giants here I believe this will be a close game throughout decided by 3 points or less. Giants looked like they could throw on anyone last week and they should be able to take advantage of the Cowboys secondary down the field. Eli Manning is enjoying his best season at QB and the offense also gets Ahmad Bradshaw back tonight that should help balance things out. They also get Manningham back which should make their receiving corps even more dangerous going into tonight and on the otherside they have one of the more dangerous pass rushes. Cowboys and Giants are ranked 2nd and 3rd in sacks on defense, and Romo has been sacked 4 more times than Manning. We faded the Cowboys last week and we'll continue to do so when they are favorites as they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite.
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12-11-11 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Panthers +3 -120 4.5* play This is like the Panthers Super Bowl. Why, because it's a divisional game and they are trying to prove they can compete in this division now and for the future. They certainly can in my opinion and the FAlcons are struggling on offense right now they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite while the Pantehrs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after scoring 30+ in previous game. They'll get revenge on the Falcons who they lost to after being tied 17-17 on the road. Cam threw 3 INT's in that game but he's a totally different QB since week 6. He's thrown an interception in just 2 of his last 6 games. This is a balanced attack that the Falcons will give up points to. They've also been on the road for 3 straight weeks and now they get back home and I think it'll be a big win for them.
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12-11-11 | Houston Texans v. Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
Bengals -2.5 3.3* play I can't help but back this team at home even vs. the Texans who are getting a lot of love because of their defense. However, no Andre Johnson yet again and they have rookie Yates in the game who only completed 50% of his passes a week ago. He was big on 3rd down completing 50% for 1st downs but that will change on the road vs. the Bengals defense which can stop both the run and the pass. In fact the Bengals are #3 in the NFL in run defense on a yard allowed per rush, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry while the Ravens are right ahead of them. Texans aren't the same when they can't run and they lost at Baltimore 14-29 earlier in the year. I like the Bengals in this one as they get a much needed win. Bengals only allowing 35% 3rd down conversions so I expect Yates to now struggle. Look for a low scoring game. Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as dogs.
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12-11-11 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Miami Dolphins -3 | 26-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 35 m | Show | |
Dolphins -2.5 -120 4* play Dolphins have continued to run the ball and play mistake free football and their defense has played great. They're better than the Eagles in my opinion right now. Now the Eagles get back Vick, but that did not matter in the beginning of the year. I'll take Bush and Daniel Thomas to have huge days running up the middle on an Eagles defense allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Philly has given the ball up 29 times this year and I bet that will come into play yet again here today. Matt Moore has been playing fantastic 61.5% 9 TD to just 4 INT and he's got a 90 QB rating.
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12-10-11 | Army +7.5 v. Navy | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Army +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game is pretty cut and dry if you ask me. Both teams know each other extremely well and run the same offense, the triple option. It comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run. In those categories these two teams are pretty even. Army a little better at running and Navy a little better at stopping it, but a lot can be said about those stats with strength of schedules and types of offenses each other has played. I look more at their 3rd down and RZ defense can these two stop each other when it counts, and even 4th downs matter in this game because Army has gone for it on 4th down 33 times while Navy 28 times. Army comes out ahead in most of these key categories and their schedule was not all that easy facing 8 of 11 teams that are bowl eligible. Army ran the ball over 5 yards per carry vs. every opponents but the first when they were 4.91 ypc vs. Northern Illinois. Navy on the other hand was held under 4 ypc twice and 5 another time. Vs. their common opponent Air Force, Navy allowed 5.44 yards per carry while Army allowed 3.31 ypc on 54 carries. In terms of 3rd down conversions Navy comes in at 47.7% while Army 44.9%, defensively Army 49.2% and Navy at 51%, small advantage to Army there, but on 4th down it's a different story, as Army 54.5% conversions and Navy just 46% and defensively Army allowed 37% on 4th down while Navy 61%. Red Zone, who can turn the possessions into TD's, well Army has 70.45% on their 44 attempts, Navy 43 attempts have 63% TD's and defensively the two are relatively even 75% to 73% in favor of Navy, but Army has only allowed 37 attempts while Navy has allowed 52 attempts. Navy does not have the same LB crew they have had in years past to dominate against the run and Army just seems to be sick of losing 9 times in a row this is clearly their best shot at pulling the upset. I wouldn't say a service academy could have any sort of a let down, but if any team is going to have a let down it's Navy after losing to San Jose State they became bowl ineligible. This game is both Navy and Army's bowl game, but Navy is used to going to a real bowl game in 8 straight years so you have to wonder if they can match the intensity early vs. Army. |
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12-08-11 | Cleveland Browns +14.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Browns +14.5 (4.4* NFL POD) It's going to be in the 20's in Pittsburgh tonight with some winds and Cleveland already has the #1 pass defense. This means a very quick game with lots of running I can see a 17-6 or 17-7 final type. We have already seen the Steelers struggle to get past the Jaguars, Chiefs and Colts and the Browns are very familiar with the Steelers by playing in their division to me this is just too many points for an in division rival. I look for Clevelands offense to do better than they did on Sunday vs. Baltiomore because Baltimore is among the leagues best in 3rd down defense while Pitt is ranked 20th. IT's not the same dominant defense it was in prior years and the offense has suffered some major inconsistencies. It's not like the Colts, Jaguars, or the Chiefs have prolific offenses or shut down defenses.
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12-04-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Arizona Cardinals +5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
Cardinals +4.5 (3.3* bonus) Cowboys will have some issues here with Beanie Wells. The Cardinals get Kevin Kolb back and now that they seem to really have gotten the ground game clicking I think Kolb's numbers will be more impressive at that time. Cowboys are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and going on the road this to me is a trap game after they just barely got by the Dolphins on Turkey day. It's not like the Cardinals are that bad any they are the same team that nearly beat the Giants.
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12-04-11 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cleveland Browns +7 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
Browns +7 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Browns here they continue to fly under the radar to most people and yet again when the line opened up as Ravens -7.5 the line quickly moved off that to 6.5 and 7 where it sits now with most of the public backing the Ravens. Ravens have had several hang overs after a big win and last Thursday's game was a big one over the 49ers. Earlier the Ravens have been hung over on the road after a big win in losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks. Neither of those two are as good as the Browns who have the leagues #1 pass defense and are #1 in red zone defense allowing just 40% TD's when opponents get inside the 20. Expect a low scoring game but for the Browns to hang around in this one giving them a shot to win outright.
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12-04-11 | Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 38-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Panthers +3 (4.4* NFL EB play) Love the Panthers here the Bucs are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games and the Bucs have the 31st ranked total defense as far as yardage. Now they face a Panthers team that comes in with a very balanced attack. 9th passing and 6th rushing. What I like the most though is this team is figuring it out as far as they continue to run the ball more and more each week instead of relying on Cam Newton throwing it. Bucs who are 30th in run defense face a Panthers team that is #2 in the league with 5.1 yards per carry. With Newton, Williams and Stewart handling the ball they'll have their hands full all day and I think it results in a big win for the improving Panthers.
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12-03-11 | Michigan State +10 v. Wisconsin | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
Mich St +10 3.3* This is too many points in my opinion as there has not been a single matchup since 2004 that was decided by more than 10 points. Although this line seems a little whacky to me, but I
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12-03-11 | Fresno State +8 v. San Diego State | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Fresno State +8 (4.4* play) Despite having nothing to play for I actually like this play a lot. Fresno did not have an easy schedule early on, and they have been in every game with the exception of Boise State. San Diego State does not blow out balanced offensive teams because their defense just is not there. Fresno should be able to keep this within a score all night long. Ryan Lindley has not looked great 13-29 2 TD and an interception vs. UNLV and San Diego State actually had just a 17-14 lead in the 4th quarter. Fresno
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12-03-11 | Georgia v. LSU -13.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
LSU -13.5 (2.2* BONUS) I love LSU here I faded them last week in a similar type game as they faced a balanced offense and a team that could play defense. The result? LSU dominated outscoring them 41-3. LSU has not allowed more than 1 offensive TD all year long to any team and they have defeated all 7 of the top 25 teams they've faced now that is domination. That means Georgia will score 7 maybe 10 or 13 points. I see LSU getting into the 30's or high 20's in this game because Georgia's defense is over rated they have not faced any offenses with any sort of a pulse until Georgia Tech last week and Tech is not balanced and they are not as good as years past. LSU looks like a sucker play at -13.5 but they just keep winning and dominating and they are battle tested I think they'll want to put Georgia away early in this one.
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12-03-11 | Texas +3 v. Baylor | 24-48 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas +3.5 -120 (4* play) Texas impressive weren
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12-03-11 | Southern Mississippi +14.5 v. Houston | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Smiss +14 4.4* - Smiss +450 1* play So we were wrong a week ago when Houston went into Tulsa and dominated, but if you watched the game you saw something very different from what the final score indicated. Tulsa was able to get into the backfield and get pressure on Case Keenum countless times. They could not take advantage of the turnovers and they had several turnovers in the red zone that ended all momentum. Needless to say Tulsa choked and Southern Miss will not. Actually you can argue Austin Dantin and Smiss are better than Tulsa and they
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12-03-11 | Connecticut +9 v. Cincinnati | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
Uconn +9 (5.5* NCAAF POD); Uconn +300 Uconn + and Money Line Before you could really beat Uconn with a solid passing game, but right now Cinci does not have that with Munchie and Jordan Luallen both not completing 50% of their passes this offense has gone into a tailspin since losing Collaros and though they went on the road to beat Syracus last week it was all about Isaiah Pead and Uconn boasts the best run defense in the Big East and they are #3 in the nation. That ranking is legit their front 7 is the best I
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12-02-11 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Ohio +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Just 29% of the public is on the Ohio Bobcats in the MAC Championship game, but I like them to cover and probably win out right. Toledo was the last balanced offense that Northern Illinois faced and they gave up 60 points to them. Ohio will force this game into a slower paced game and Northern Illinois defense which I will admit is under rated was just not the same away from home. They
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12-01-11 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Eagles-2.5 buy 1/2 -120 (4* NFL POD) Call me crazy but this team is better with Vince Young than Michael Vick. We saw it early vs. the Patriots and he's less prone to making big mistakes than Vick is. He threw for over 400 yards vs. the Patriot defense and had countless drops from his receivers. I think the Eagles are a better road team right now 3-2 on the year because playing at home is just too stressful for the "Dream Team." This is the first time I am backing them all year we have faded them a bunch, but I think the time is right despite going up to Seattle. The Seahawks have their own issues with their offense that's among the worst in the league 30th, and they are converting just 32% of their 3rd downs while the Eagles secondary should shut down Travaris Jackson who has 3 TD and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games. Philly's defense is also better on 3rd down the biggest difference right now between these two teams is the turnovers. If the Eagles don't turn the ball over they'll win this game. Even without Vick and Maclin they are far better on offense and I'd say they have much more talent on defense although Seattle stops the run a bit better. Andy Reid just is not a run first type of guy. McCoy had 10 touches a week ago vs. the Patriots. The guy is still the leading rusher though expect the Eagles to win this game on the arm of Vince Young and I feel confident saying that.
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12-01-11 | West Virginia v. South Florida +2 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
South Florida +2 -105 (4.2* NCAAF POD) West Virginia really has not looked good this season especially on the road where their defense has been atrocious giving up 31 to Maryland, 49 to Syracuse, 31 to Rutgers, and then rebounding to give up 21 to Cinci (playing without Collaros most of the way). West Virginia had just 16 sacks all year long before tallying 10 a week ago vs. Pitt, but they'll have their work cut out for them South Florida has been sacked just 14 times and it appears they will have BJ Daniels for this game. A game that is not just any game to either team.
West Virginia wants that BCS game and South Florida wants to win and get in. West Virginia has struggled big time on offense when they are rushed by opposing defense and this to me is just a bad match up for them. South Florida is very fast and they're 2nd in the nation in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Their offense on the other hand that many doubt is the 2nd most productive in conference play and is very balanced. This is a defense that simply had a let down vs. Louisville after holding Miami to 6 points. The key is if South Florida can run on West Virginia and I think they can as West Virginia is allowing 4.89 yards per carry compared to 3.07 at home and folks they placed the nation's worst rushing attack in Rutgers and still gave up 31 points. Rutgers does not have a juggernaut passing game by any means so that just goes to show you this is not the same West Virginia defense from years past. South Florida on the flip side can absolutely make what is already a one dimensional offense as they are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry at home. I think their pass rush is the key and I think LB DeDe Lattimore and DE Ryne Giddins will have huge games leading their team to victory. Before we finish this up let's just go over my favorite stats 3rd down and the Red Zone. It's a crucial aspect of the game when backing a under dog. Can the under dog trade TD's for field goals and in this case they 100% absolutely can. West Virginia is nothing special just 40% overall on 3rd down offensively and on the road 34.5% while USF defense is allowing 34% at home. West Virginia's defense as you guessed on the road is worse allowing 43.94 % conversions. Their offense struggled big time on the road vs. Cinci and Rutgers and USF has a better run defense than Rutgers and are better vs. the pass than both of those teams. Red Zone also advantage for South Florida defensively as they allow just 44% TD's on RZ trips for opposing offenses. West Virginia's offense 64% but 50% in road games. South Florida's offense meanwhile continues to improve in the red zone as they are 60% at home, but 70% overall in their last 4 games. West Virginia's defense allowing 73.68% TD's in their road games this year. On top of all the poor road play they are penalized 7.8 times per game on the road. |
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11-27-11 | Chicago Bears v. Oakland Raiders -3 | 20-25 | Win | 103 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Raiders -2.5 -120 (3.6* NFL LNF) Love the Raiders here, but I will buy the half point. There is a misconception right now about the Bears. Their defense is giving up yards and they are giving up a ton of them ranked 30th in pass defense, but they also are giving up more than 5 yards per carry. The Raiders can certainly do both they have a plethora of WR talent that can beat the Bears and we know they can run the ball. On the flip side the Bears don't have the same offense. Yes they can run the ball, but anticipate the RAiders stacking the box and see what Caleb Hanie can do vs. the Raiders and I don't htink it will be pretty. If the Raiders take care of the ball they'll win this game as they are 8th with 28 sacks, and the Bears 26th just 18 sacks. Give Palmer time and he's not going to make mistakes.
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11-27-11 | Cleveland Browns +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Browns +7.5 -120 (4.5* play) Another revenge type game as in the first match up this game was all about the Bengals being behind 17-13 with 5 minutes to play. The Browns defense has been great all year ranked 5th in total yards because they can stop the passing game. Joe Haden is quickly becoming possibly the next Revis Island. This game should be good as Cleveland will go no huddle to get their points with Colt McCoy taking snaps out of the gun. Browns are also not dead in the playoff race so expect them to play with some confidence. Bengals are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as a home favorite while the Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 as a road dog 3.5 to 10 points. Division rivals they know each other extremely well and this game won't get out of hand. Cleveland is actually 9th in the league in 3rd down conversions while the Bengals are 18th at 37%.. That's my surprise stat. Enjoy!
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11-27-11 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -126 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
Rams -2 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Rams in this one as they dominated the game in Arizona a few weeks ago this is the Cardinals 3rd road game in a row on Tday weekend and they were out gained by 121 yards in the first match up while the Rams held onto the ball for 37 minutes. I twas a missed field goal, an interception and penalties and poor special teams play in OT giving up the TD to Patrick Peterson that cost the Rams that game. This is a must win for the Rams with Steve Spagnolia and his GM on the hot seat and I think they just have more balance than the Cardinals right now. Both teams can rush the passer and we saw that in the first game, but the Rams should have the advantage at home and the advantage with the guy behind center. Many think Sam Bradford has regressed but I like what I am seeing with Brandon Lloyd of late and Steven Jackson had 130 yards rushing in the first match up while Beanie Wells for the Cardinals had just 20 yards on 10 carries. Cardinals are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record.
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11-26-11 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. Stanford | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +7.5 -115 (4* PLAY)
You know what Notre Dame could easily be 10-1 or even 11-0 if it weren't for all their turnover issues early in the season. They've cleaned that up just 3 over the last 3 games and 8 over their last 7. This is a team that went on the road to USC and won late last season. It's also a team that's better on defense and offense than a year ago when they lost to Stanford which was easily a more even game than the final score indicated. Stnaford went 11-16 completing 69% on third down and Andrew Luck put on a clinic. What will change this year well Notre Dame can stop the run and pass and they are holding opponents to 33.3% on 3rd down no matter where they play. On the flip side Notre Dame is a very balanced offense too. That's not good for the Stanford defense which has started to flutter - as they have allowed 9 TD passes in the last 4 games. Stanford has only faced two teams that have been able to run and throw in USC and Oregon and they were challenged in both and both teams were able to run. If Notre Dame can run in this game they should hold this TD spread we have here and I think they can, both USC and Oregon were over 6 yards per carry and Notre Dame can do the same. Also the strength of Stanford's defense is sacking the QB well Notre Dame sacked just 8 times all seaason and Michael Floyd should have a hell of a day in what will be a very entertaining back and forth game. I expect Stanford to come out a little flat in this one as Oregon will beat Oregon State earlier in the day and that will Mean Stanford does not win the Pac 12. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 match ups with Stanford. |
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11-26-11 | UAB v. Florida Atlantic +5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
FAU +5 (3* PLAY)
FAU winless on the season and you may be wondering why I would even recommend this game. That's because UAB is not good. They have put up points on many occasions but they just came off a huge win vs. Southern Miss and I don't see them getting up for their last game. FAU will try to send their coach out with a victory and this game gives them a better shot at doing so. UAB is 118th allowing 37 points per game. Sr. Alfred Morris will have a day he averaged 5.25 yards per carry, and UAB allows 5.25 on the season and UAB is allwoing 47.33 % conversions on 3rd down. More importantly I think is the fact FAU has only played 3 home games. They are much better than their 0-10 record since they had to open up by playing Florida, Michigan State, and then Auburn. They've been close vs. some good teams it's only a matter if their offense starts working because their defense plays well enough to win. Guess what they get their shot as UAB is just awful on defense they gave up 59 on the road to a Marshall team above that's not known for their offense. |
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11-26-11 | East Carolina v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
Marshall -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Marshall can get a bowl eligible victory here, but they can also earn the east crown if Southern Miss falls later in the day. That will allow Marshall to play with a lot of energy here. This is a team that beat Louisville and S. Miss at home and continues to play well here they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home fav .5 to 3. East Carolina has been hurt big time with injuries they have 4 offensive linement that are questionable for Saturday and they lost WR's and 3 RB's. Maybe they can make up for those things in home games, but on the road I don't think so. I expect Marshall to come up with a big win on Saturday especially having 2 extra days to prepare. This is a defense that gets after the QB they have a ton of sacks and they're led by an NFL talent in Vinny Curry who has 11 sacks himself. They get after the QB particularly at home and that leads to turnovers as they are +9 in TO margin at home while Eastern Carolina is -12 on the season turning it over 31 times this year. This is SR day and Marshall has 15 seniors who will be playing in their last game at home. Don't sleep on the Marshall pass defense as they have played miles better at home holding opposing QB's to a 106 QB rating and 51.8% . East Carolina can't run the ball just 3 yards per carry on the road while their defense allows 5.05 so expect Marshall to be running a lot with Tron Martinez they are very capable of dominating a team on the ground. Last edge will be field advantage and it's a huge edge. East Carolina dead last in net punting averaging just 29.1 yards per punt and they are last in punt return defense. Marshall averages over 11 yards per return so I expect great field position for Marshall all day long which should lead to points and a victory. |
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11-26-11 | Rutgers v. Connecticut +3 | 22-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Uconn +3.5 -120 (3.5* play)
Just 29% of the public bet are buying the Huskies right now, because of what Rutgers did last week, but in reality they really got lucky with Zach Collaros being out with an injury and we were all over Rutgers at +3 as our play of the week. This week we will fade the Scarlet Knights as the roller coaster Big East continues. Uconn needs a win to stay alive for a bowl game and Rutgers is due for a bit of a let down here while Uconn will try to have revenge on their 3 point loss at Rutgers a year ago. Uconn may have the best defensive line in the Big East. They are really talented allowing 93 ypg on the ground and just 2.63 yards per carry on the ground. I really don't see Jamison doing what he did to Cinci in back to back weeks. Uconn will not miss tackles and this game will get turned over to Rutgers suspect passing game. That will allow Uconn to win via the turnover as they are +2 at home. Rutgers is 111th in the running game just a FYI. Rutgers defense has been stout but I believe Uconn's running game can have some success as Lyle McCombs 4.33 ypc should come into effect at home as a closer look at Rutgers defense reveals they are allowing 4.52 yards per carry on the road. Uconn is better at running the ball and they're better at stopping the run at this point in the season yet they are home under dogs based on recent performance? Oddsmakers got this all wrong.It's do or die for Uconn and Rutgers is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Huskies. This game will come down to a field goal that's why I recommend buying the half point so you get a win instead of the push! |
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11-26-11 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Michigan | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
Ohio St +7.5 (4.4* play) Ohio State +250 (1.5* play)
Almost jumped all over Ohio State as the play of the week, but it'll be my 2nd largest play of Saturday instead. First of all Michigan has not faced a defense this good at home all season long maybe since Notre Dame and Ohio State is much better than Notre Dame's defense which really is a one man show. Ohio State always has LB and the personnel to stop what Michigan does best which is run the ball and force Denard Robinson into being a pocket passer so he turns the ball over. Ohio State is allowing just 3.66 ypc this season, Michigan is averaging 5.31 on the year but 2.86 in losses. If Ohio State can slow that running game down and I believe they will they can cover this spread with ease especially since they too can run the ball averaging 4.47 yards per carry, 4.49 on the road and 4.53 in conference play. Ohio State has dominated this match up with their defense and while Michigan's defense is miles from where they were a year ago I still don't trust them especially since their non conference schedule had Eastern Mich, Western Mich, and San Diego State. Denard Robinson will be due for a pick or two he's got 15 on the year and Ohio State just does not turn the ball over. That's key for a team catching a TD + spread as we know they'll most likely be + in the TO margin. The only real defenses that Michigan has faced close to Ohio State's talent level has been Michigan State and Iowa and they managed just 30 points total and lost both games. Ohio State faced a similar style Nebraska team and we had them at +10 as our play of the week then. Ohio State held a 27-6 lead in the 3rd quarter before they lost the momentum when Braxton Miller got hurt, but Miller is back and he's playing well. Ohio State got DeVier Posey back at WR in their last game 4 rec 66 yards and that was huge as he can give them a threat in the passing game which should stretch the field. Of the 4 Big Ten losses Ohio State has had none of them have been blowouts losing by 4.7 ppg. Ohio State is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning home team and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. |
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11-26-11 | Cincinnati v. Syracuse +2 | 30-13 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Syracuse +2 (3.3* play)
I like this match up Syracuse comes off a bye week they desperately needed and Cinci comes into this game after losing their heart in the last 2 games. Zach Collaros remains out and now they have this guy Munchie who after watching his game vs. Rutgers can not throw a lick. Guess what Syracuse does not allow teams to run on them - 2.93 yards per carry at home 3.55 overall. This is a team that beat West Virginia at home and Syracuse is more than capable to take advantage of Cinci's weakness in pass defense as Ryan Nassib is completting 63% of his passes for 20 TD and only 6 interceptions. Munchie will have issues all day long as Syracuse dominated up front on the road last year vs. Cinci and I think they do again today as they come out with an outright victory. The dog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a bye week. |
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11-25-11 | Arkansas +12.5 v. LSU | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Arkansas +12.5 (3.3* play)
I have no doubt LSU takes this game, but Arkansas can do something that LSU has not seen very often this year and that |
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11-25-11 | Houston v. Tulsa +3.5 | Top | 48-16 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Tulsa +3.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Tulsa here you can say arguably they are the better team as their 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise state in the beginning of the year. Tulsa actually won at Houston last year , but they |
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11-25-11 | Louisville +3.5 v. South Florida | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Louisville +3.5 (3.3* play)
Lousville can play for the Big East Championship or a share with a win vs. South Florida and they |
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11-24-11 | San Francisco 49ers v. Baltimore Ravens -3 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Ravens -3 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the Ravens for the simple fact that the 49ers are not used to playing this type of game on both sides of the ball. They play physical themselves, but how often do you see them going up against opponents like this and on a short week and traveling across country? One other time when they faced the Bengals in a 13-8 win, but remember that was an even younger Andy Dalton that was not cut loose until a few games ago. Ravens on the other hand well they have faced 4 like defenses to the 49ers in the Bengals, Steelers (2x), and Jets. Guess what they went 4-0 straight up and ATS and they put up 31, 23, 34, and 35 points. The 30 point games came at home and as we all know they are a different team at home. Why do I bring up this style of football? Well the 49ers will have to take chances in this game running the ball and throwing short just won
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11-24-11 | Texas +8.5 v. Texas A&M | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
3.3* play
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11-24-11 | Miami Dolphins +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | 19-20 | Win | 102 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Dolphins +7.5 -120 (4* play) Buy the points not going to mess around here although I give the Dolphins a shot to win outright. Their defense is just too good to be playing a TD at anytime even to the Cowboys who are hot right now but are sure to come back down to life shortly here. Dolphins are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a home team with a winning record. Keep underestimating this team America and we will keep cashing our tickets. Dolphins and the Cowboys can rush the passer both in top 10 in the league so the running game becomes all the more important. The Cowboys are allowing 4.3 yards per carry while Miami is stout 5th in the league allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and this defense stiffens in the red zone and on 3rd down holding opponents to 37% conversions while Dallas is at 41%. On offense Miami is #3 in terms of least penalized teams so going on the road to Dallas won
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11-24-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Detroit Lions +7 | 27-15 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Lions +7 -115 (4.4* Early Bird); Lions +255 (1* Bonus) This is the Lions game of the year clearly, and they have been pointing to it.. I don
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11-22-11 | Miami (OH) v. Ohio -8.5 | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Ohio -8.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) I normally love the under dog in these type of match ups, but Miami Ohio just came off a deflating loss to Western Michigan a week ago and they are out of the MAC race and their season is over with 7 losses. No bowl game or magic carpet ride like last season. I think it will be a challenge to get up against an Ohio team that has dominated them going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings 3 of the last 4 had a spread of a field goal or less and in those games Ohio has won by an average of 17 points. Offensively Miami Ohio can pass the ball but they are dead last in the nation in running ranked 120th in yardage and that
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11-20-11 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Titans +6.5 (3.3* play) Titans get a break as Julio Jones is out and the Falcons come off an emotional loss against the Saints. I have no doubt that the Titans can come in and have a chance to win this now that Chris Johnson is starting to come a live. The Titans are 14-5 in their last 29 games as a dog 3.5 to 10 points while the Falcons are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning road record.
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11-20-11 | San Diego Chargers +5 v. Chicago Bears | 20-31 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Chargers +4.5 4.4* PLAY I love the Chargers in this one, their main issues have been turnovers. I truly believe if they don't turn the ball over today that they win, but the Bears too are forcing a ton of turnovers and that's what has them where they are right now because they are still giving up 50 more yards then they are producing on offense. You don't see too many winning teams with that -50 total yards per game. I think the Chargers should be in this game all day long in a game that will likely be decided by a field goal. Chargers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a dog and have a few extra days to prepare for a game they need badly.
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11-20-11 | Dallas Cowboys v. Washington Redskins +8 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
Redskins +7.5 (3.3* bonus) This is far too many points to a division rivalry especially one that was a 3.5 point spread just 5 weeks ago in Dallas where the Cowboys won just 18-16. Rex Grossman is back as the starting QB and I think that's a good thing because he can obviously win a game with his arm where as Jon Beck never won an NFL game as a starting QB. The dog in this meeting is 22-6 ATS and Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings. I like Washington's defense and they know this Dallas team very well because they play them two times a year I really expect them to be in this game into the 4th quarter because of their defense. Demarco Murray has been great, but remember Washington gave up 100 yards to Felix Jones anyway in the last meeting and the Redskins still nearly won. This game will be ugly but expect a 17-13 type final score.
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11-20-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 8-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
Dolphins -2.5 (5.5* NFL POD) Love the Dolphins, Matt Moore has been on fire 62.4% of his passes and so have the Dolphins and their defense which has recorded 8 sacks in their last 2 games and they are shutting down opposing teams running games too, ranked 10th in run defense. Look for Fred Jackson to struggle again on Sunday and for Fitzpatrick to also struggle throwing the ball. Bills season really did a flip once they lost Kyle Williams their NT on defense for the season. This team has reverted to last year's team that struggled stopping the run and right now the Dolphins are finding balance with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas. Bush is off 242 yards rushing the last 3 weeks and he continues that success this week. On the otherside the Dolphins defense is playing as good as any in the league right now and Fitzpatrick has 5 interceptions in his last two games now he's without his starting Center Eric Pears who is out. Bills are just 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a dog .5 to 3pts.
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11-19-11 | Kansas State +8.5 v. Texas | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas St +9 (4.4* play) Almost made this my play of the day, as the line just does not make sense. Kansas State though will come in trying to control the clock they are #1 in the nation in time of possession and that's thanks to a running game and their QB Collin Klein who has 24 TD's on the ground and 1009 yards. Texas is usually adequate at stopping any kind of a running game, and I don't doubt that they'll slow Kansas State, but can Texas get anything going on offense with all the injuries their backfield has had in the past week? Last Week we had Missouri over Texas at +1.5 as our big play and they easily won the game and it came at a cost when their backfield was hit hard by injuries including their Sr. leader Whitaker. Bottom line Texas was exposed by a mobile QB last week in James Franklin who only rushed for 33 yards, but was able to pass and move the ball. Kansas State just gets it done they are +9 in turnover margin all of that comes on the road where they have been + in that department in all of their road games. Expect Texas to be forced to throw the ball and as I said last week they are not built to win a game that way not with Ash or McCoy behind center. This should be a fast game lots of running that is played close.
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11-19-11 | Utah v. Washington State +3.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 14 m | Show | |
Washington State +3.5 (5* play) Utah started 0-4 in the Pac-12 and now have been on a run and even have a long shot at a BCS bowl game, but Washington STate is playing for their bowl lives after a huge win over a very good ARizona State team. Arizona State went to Utah and won outright. Washington State should be able to win if they can stop John White and to do that they will stack the box. They held ARizona state to just 2.4 ypc and on this is just a bad match up for Utah in my opinion. It's not like their offense is a juggernaut ranked 109th in total offense and converting just 34.35% on 3rd downs this season while Washington State is converting 42.86%. Washington State's defense is allowing just 29.6% conversions in their last 2 games so I think that continues into this key game. Utah has also relied on turnovers way too often this year but they have turned the ball over 19 times themselves. WAshington St has turned the ball over just 6 times in 5 home games so I don't think Utah has enough to cover as favorites on the road against a team fighting for bowl eligibility unless they win the turnover battle which I don't believe they will. Meanwhile I mentioned this being a bad match up for Utah, because Washington State is not a running team. Utah is built to stop the run, but Washington State will simply just try to throw they are ranked 9th and they got a guy who just came in relief in Connor Halliday who threw 27-36 for 496 yards 4 TD and 0 INT vs. a stiff ARizona State team. Utah ranked 75th in pass defense and I think Washington State has the talent to get behind the secondary of Utah in this game. Lastly this game also comes down to red zone and Washington State is converting 76% of their opportunities at home into TD's while their defense is allowing 55% and Utah continues to struggle in the red zone as they do on 3rd downs converting just 48% of their attempts on the season and 37% on the road.
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11-19-11 | Louisiana Tech +7 v. Nevada | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show | |
LA Tech +7.5 (3.3* play) La Tech +252 (1*play) LA Tech has had an incredible season so far, but it all means nothing unless they can finally get past Nevada and I think they finally do. They have had 5 wins in a row this is a team that has lost by 2 to Southern Miss ranked 22nd, lost by 1 to Houston ranked 11th, and lost to MIss St by 6 also on the road and they beat SEC team Miss last week. They are competitive in every game and give themselves a chance to win. Nevada has 16 straight wins at home but they are about to face a LA Tech team that can stop the run unlike last year. They are allowing just 2.97 yards per carry in conference play 3.15 overall. The only two teams Southern Miss and Miss St who have rushed over 4 yards and they ran for 4.0 and 4.03. Their defense on the road this year has been unreal and that's the difference they are doing it against quality opponents holding them to 26.80% on 3rd down and in the red zone they are doing it too. Nevada is -1 in turnover margin with 20 turnovers and La Tech hardly ever turns the ball over and is +8 in turnover margin and that's another reason I love LA Tech to win finally get their win agasint Nevada who is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite. While La Tech is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. a winning team
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11-19-11 | Washington v. Oregon State +2 | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 38 h 45 m | Show | |
Oregon State +2 -105 (4.4* Play) Oregon State gets a break as Joe Montana's son Nick will start in place of Keith Price who got injured after a crushing loss to USC and now they go on the road to play Oregon State team that has pride to play for. I don't think that is why they win this game, it will be more about Washington's defense which is ranked 11th on 3rd down allowing 49.26% conversions on the year. Oregon State should finally have a balanced attack in their last 3 games they haven't rushed the ball at all 32, 33, and 27 yards in each game, but they faced CAl Stanford, and Utah the 3 best run defenses in the Pac 12 who are ranked 31st, 8th and 11th in the nation, Washington is more like Washington State allowing 4.8 ypc on the year and over 6 in their road games. If Oregon State can find balance like they did vs. Washington State they should have a field day on offense and expect James Rodgers to get into it in this game in a big way. Washington is not only bad vs. the run but they are ranked 104th in pass defense and Oregon State and Sean Manion are 21st in passing offense. Washington allowing opposing QB's a 63.5% completion rate and a 147 QB rating. The last time SEan Manion faced a bad pass defense was Wash St and ARizona and they won both of those games. This will be a Sr. moment with 17 Sr's on SR day expect both the offense and defense to be pumped up. Washington has allowed 13 sacks in the last 2 games expect Oregon State to get after the young Montana.
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11-19-11 | Iowa v. Purdue +3 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 50 m | Show | |
Purdue +3 -120 (3.3* play) Iowas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a favorite while Purdue is 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games in november. Iowa has looked awful on the road vs. Minny, Penn State and Iowa St and are 0-3 on the road. PUrdue just beat two solid Big Ten teams at home in Illinois and Penn State and they've gotten done running the ball, as they average 4.47 ypc at home this season. They controlled the clock and ran the ball 42 times vs. both Ill and Penn State. The big key though has come on 3rd down as they have converted 45% of their third downs at home and have only allowed 35% conversions on defense. Iowa defense has allowed 47% on 3rd downs on the road which will set Purdue up for another successful day. In the early going it will be Marcus Cooker form Iowa vs. Ralph Bolden from Purdue. Purdue held both Illinois and Penn State to under 4 yards per carry and I see no reason why they can't do it again. Purdue is also 32nd in ppass defense if James VandenBerg tries to throw the ball they could run into a stiff test. On the other side the QB committee has worked well with Terbush and Robert Marve.
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11-19-11 | Cincinnati v. Rutgers +3 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
Rutgers +3 (5.5* NCAAF POD) This is Rutgers game to lose as the the Bearcats come off an emotional loss because not only did they lose to West Virginia their rival, but they lost their QB Zach Collaros to a broken ankle. Look for Rutgers to have a lot of revenge for the beat down's they got from Cinci the last few years. Now that Collaros is not there as he threw for 366 yards a year ago. Rutgers defense is the real deal any how and a much improved unit from a year ago. They should be able to come up and stop Isiah Peed. Cinci is great at stopping the run and are ranked #2 in the nation and leads the nation in tackles for loss, but Rutgers doesn't run the ball anyway they've been passing it behind Chas Dodd who had 4 TD and 300+ yards a year ago vs. Cinci and he goes up against their 115th ranked pass defense. Rutgers has the receivers to give them all kinds of issues again including Mohamed Sanu and Mark Harrisson. Harrisson had 240 yards receiving a year ago in the loss. Rutgers defense should put up a better game they are #1 in the Big East in takeaways now facing an inexperienced QB in Munchie Legaux. Rutgers averages 4.5 sacks per home game and although Munchie looked good in relief he faces a much more challenging test knowing he's the starter. Cinci with Collaros were only converting 36.84% on third down on the road and Rutgers defense allowing just 31.8% conversions at home. Again both teams can stop the run this comes down to who can pass better and at home Rutgers has proven they can get to the QB and the newbie Munchie won't have success as Rutgers is holding opponents to 52.5% completions and 9 interceptions at home 53.7% and 16 overall while the Bearcats have allowed 65.2% to opposing QB's. The dog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Cinci is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 in November.
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11-18-11 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +28 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Iowa State +28 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Iowa +2250 (1* play) First off I feel Iowa State matches up really well with Oklahoma St in the fact that they can run the ball and they can defend the pass those are the two things they do best on offense and defense and we will get into it in more detail, but Iowa State has an extra 7 days and they are fighting for bowl eligibility right now and Oklahoma State as 4 TD favorites have to be looking past this game to Oklahoma. Oklahoma was 28 point favorites to Texas Tech and lost so why can't Iowa State take down Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State is ranked 101st in yards allowed this year. It's all about QB play of Jared Barnett who is averaging 5.24 yards per carry. Oklahoma State had all kinds of issues with the trio of dual threat QB's they've faced this year in Kansas Sate Collin Klein, James Franklin, Missouri and Robert Griffin of Baylor. Another key to Oklahoma's season has been forcing turnovers and they have forced a lot. Iowa State has the tendency to be careless but over their last 3 games they have gotten much better and I think the extra prep has only helped them prepare for this. Also Iowa State's defense which has allowed just 12 passing TD's all season has held their last 3 opponents to 27.9% conversions on 3rd downs. Overall 36% at home and their Red Zone defense goes right along with that as they have allowed just 8 TD on red zone appearances at home this year in 21 attempts for just 38%. IF Oklahoma State gets stopped and they aren't overly impressive in the red zone just 60% touchdowns on the road and 64% in conference play then I think Iowa State will easily cover this spread. This spread is all about the hype of Oklahoma State can they handle the pressure when they are the hunted?
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11-17-11 | Marshall v. Memphis +12 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Memphis +11.5 (3.3* play) Marshall as double digit favorites? Really I know Memphis has been awful, but both teams come off emotional losses a week ago and memphis would love to play spoiler here. Marshall has some issues on offense and will defer back to the true freshmen Cato who threw 10 TD and 8 INT, and just 55.9% completions. I don't think he can truly take advantage of Memphis most obvious weakness which is the pass defense. I think Marshall will have issues because their offensive line is banged up they've never been able to really run the ball and their defense has shown some holes the last month. Memphis D-line has some talent including Dontae Poe who will play in the NFL one day. I look for Memphis to come up with a big effort to have a chance to win it in the end as they continue to be good at not turning the ball over and forcing turnovers as they are 21st in the nation in TO margin while Marshall is -3 on the road this year.
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11-17-11 | North Carolina +10.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
UNC +10.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) 3 of the last 4 match ups in this rivalry have been decided by a TD or less. Last year UNC fell victim of turnovers by their offense as TY Yates threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech to me is not the same and they are really banged up on defense and UNC has a balanced offense that Virginia Tech has not faced yet. Bryn Renner is completing 71.4 % of his passes this year which is unreal and 19 TD 11 INT on the season and he has weapons to throw to including 6-4 SR Dwight Jones who has 63 receptions and 8 TD's. UNC also features a talented freshmen running the ball in 5.44 ypc this year 3rd in the ACC in total yards. On the other side we know what Virginia Tech is going to do, run the ball and UNC has the talent to stop it as they have the better defensive line in this one. They held Clemson to 2.14 and Miami to 1.63 yards two solid running teams. I think Virginia Tech may be looking ahead here too as they win here and win against rival Virginia next week and they'll get a rematch against Clemson which they desperately want after losing 23-3. UNC scored 38 points on Clemson so that should tell you all you need to know about UNC's capabilities here. Now there are distractions, but the extra 5 days to prepare and the revenge after last year's loss to a much more talented Virginia Tech team which they led at half time 10-9. People forget Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke 14-10. Logan Thomas was impressive last week but now we'll see what he can do against a team that is much more talented in the front 7 than Georgia Tech who looked to have been in control in that game until the personal foul on defense for Georgia Tech. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog 10.5+ and Vtech is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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11-16-11 | Western Michigan +1.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Western Mich +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Miami Ohio is now facing a completely different style offense than they did a week ago vs. Temple who loves to pound the rock. This week they face a high flight offense that is just plain and simply clicking. Alex Carder to Jordan White is a dynamic duo going back to last year. They are only dogs because of their 1-5 road record, but honestly their 5 losses are all to quality bowl teams in Uconn, Michigan, Illinois, and the MAC's two best, Northern Illinois, Toledo and a very improved Eastern Michigan team. Miami Ohio is last in the league in running the ball and that's Western Mich's weakness that we won't ever see. They are just averaging 2.38 ypc and Western Michigan's defense has an extra day to prepare to put their secondary in the right position. I think the swagger of this defense comes back against a one dimensional offense in Miami Ohio as they look to win out to get into a bowl game. Zac Dysert is very turnover prone and his offensive line afforded him little protection as he was sacked 7 times vs. Temple. Western Mich is also just better on 3rd down as they are converting 48.28% on third down in conference play and their defense is allowing 40%. While Miami Ohio converting just 37% and allowing 39.73% at home. Vs. two Passing teams the only passing teams on the schedule in Toledo and Cinci they gave up 44% and 50% 3rd down conversions. This will be a key tonight in what should be another entertaining MAC match up.
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11-15-11 | Ball State v. Northern Illinois -17.5 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
NILL -17 -120 buy 1/2 Buy the half here, but I don't think you'll need it as Northern Illinois comes in red hot right now off 45 and 63 point performances and they face a defense ranked 118th in total defense. This is the same defense that gave up 42 points to Temple which has just one way to beat you. Northern Illinois can beat them through the air and on the ground and on special teams. Chandler Harnish is just competing at a different level right now and he should have his way at home against this team. Especially if Temple's Chester Stewart can throw 10-13 for 160 yards on the road vs. Ball State. I liked what I saw from Northern Illinois defense last week and they can get sacks at home 14 in just 4 home games and I expect that to be a big reason why they cover this large spread. Add in that they have held opponents to 31% 3rd down conversions in conference games and 40% overall while they are 64.8% at home in converting 3rd downs and there is a real reason to believe this spread is too low. How can Ball State even get off the field as they are allowing conference opponents to convert on 59.55% of their 3rd downs and they have allowed a 172 QB rating in conference play and now they face one of the conference best QB's. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run and they aren't even 100% healthy as they've held 6 different starters out of practice recently. Expect Northern Illinois to score into the 40's for sure and probably the 50's as their defense continues to improve on last week's performance when they held a better offensive Bowling Green to 90 yards and 9 points in the 2nd half.
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11-14-11 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -13 | 7-45 | Win | 106 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Packers -13 (3.3* NFL PLAY) Small play for me tonight this is a lot of points even for the defending Super Bowl Champions, but the Vikings just do not match up well with the Packers. They lost 31-3 last time in Green Bay and if they do not get points off special teams there is no way they can compete with the high octane offense of Green Bay. Minny also will struggle to run the ball this time around after Peterson ate them alive in the last match up. Green Bay is 8th in run defense they really struggle in passing defense, but Ponder is still inexperienced. He's only completing 52% of his passes right now and he has the tendency to turn the ball over. On the other side the Vikings are 27th in pass defense and Aaron Rodgers basically toyed wiht htem just 2 games ago as he went 24-30 335 yards 3 TD and 0 interceptions. I don't think he'll have any trouble and the rush of Jarred Allen will be a non factor. Vikings are 5-11 in their last 16 road games.
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11-13-11 | NY Giants +3.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 20-27 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Giants +4 (4.4* play) Giants have been a very good road team under Tom Coughlin. 30-13 ATS in their last 43 and I like them as a road dog against a 49ers team that has been great this season. Here is why I like the Giants. It's a simple game plan for them to cover this and when you only have to do one thing to keep an offense under control and you are an under dog I like that team to cover the spread. That one thing is force the game into Alex Smith's hand. Can the Giants do it? That's a big question and it is what separates this game from a max play. I for one believe they can stop Frank Gore though they are ranked 24th in run defense. I also like how the Giants match up as they won't be able to run the ball at all but Eli Manning is having an MVP type year and he's making players around him better just like his brother has in years past. Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard are becoming studs and it's because of Eli Manning. 49ers are 22nd in pass defense and that's where the Giants can attack them. They'll only need 14 points or so to cover this spread. If the 49ers win it will likely be only 1 FG that gets it done. Take the Giants confidently they are a very good team and even better on the road.
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11-13-11 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears -2.5 | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Bears -2.5 (4* play) It's a rematch of the 24-13 loss in Detroit where the Bears had 14 penalties 9 because of false starts. I just do not think the Lions can win games at this point in the season unless they are home. The field conditions are less than ideal and Matt Forte should go off as the Bears are ironically finding balance. Cutler sacked just 3 times in his last 3 games. He got his college buddy Earl Bennett back last game and it's evident that it opens up this offense so much more. The Bears dominated time of possession 39 minutes to 21 at Detroit and if it weren't for a couple of big plays the Bears would have won that game outright. Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a Monday night game and I think they are a veteran team that knows how to handle those situations.
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11-13-11 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +1 | 26-23 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Falcons -1 (3.3* play) Vilma doubtful is a huge loss if he can't play or be 100% and I think that will mean a big day again for Turner running the ball. Falcons made their off season moves for this very type of game. Win the division and compete with the Packers and be able to score points. That means beating the Saints and now that Julio Jones is healthy we saw what type of player he is and can be. The Saints simply do not have the defense to stop the Falcons and we saw the troubles Drew Brees and the offensive line had in St. Louis on the road. John Abraham and Ray Edwards should be able to get to Brees or at least force him to get the ball out fast and that usually means no big plays. I think this game will go back and forth a bit, but I trust the home team and the Falcons defense to just make more plays. The Saints are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 following a straight up win and the Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win. The Falcons finally started playing the game they are capable of and that will continue today.
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11-13-11 | Washington Redskins v. Miami Dolphins -4 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Dolphins -4 (3.3* play) We backed this team outright a week ago against the Chiefs on the road and the Dolphins came up with a 31-3 win and that's because Matt Moore was effective 17-23 with 244 yards 3TD 0 INT and the running game continued to click and now REggie Bush has had 260 yards on 35 touches in the last 2 games. That continues against the REdskins who are clearly offensively challenged. John Beck has an inability to see down the field and there are just too many check downs to the running back and that's the reason they have 11 points in the last 2 games. Redskins are better off with Rex Grossman. I expect at some point for Grossman to be the guy again, but for now it's Beck and he's just not that good. Beck is getting sacked once every 9 drop backs where Grossman was once every 19. Dolphins can get to the QB with Cameron Wake they had 5 sacks in their last game and it will likely be a key here as they force Beck to make mistakes. Redskins are just 7-21-3 in their last 31 games vs. a losing team and 5-16-6 in their last 27 after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
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11-13-11 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs -3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Chiefs -3 (5.5* NFL POD) Last week we had the Dolphins out right against this team, but that was mainly due to the Chiefs coming off a big win on Monday Night and the Dolphins were over due to end their winless ways. The Dolphins dominated that game for 4 quarters and it was evident that the Chiefs were A. not prepared, and B. not ready physically. Chiefs coach Todd Haley even admitted that they worked on stuff a little too much following a Monday game and I think now this team will be rested and ready to go against a Broncos team that is over achieving. I love Tim Tebow, but I do believe that the option attack just will not sustain in the NFL. Now it's looked pretty good, but the tape is out on Tim Tebow. Make him throw outside the numbers and although Tebow 2-0 on the road is very impressive I see him falling to the Chiefs today. This is coming from someone who is not critical of Tebow I think he can play in this league but he has a long way to go. Force Tebow to throw outside and you win this game and the Chiefs definitely have the talent to do this. Denver is also just 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 after scoring 30 + points in previous game and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS win.
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11-12-11 | Oregon +3.5 v. Stanford | 53-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
Oregon +3.5 (4.4* play) This is the big one Stanford vs. Oregon and again I
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11-12-11 | Louisiana Tech -2 v. Ole Miss | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 44 h 58 m | Show | |
LA Tech -2 3.3* play This line looks a little crazy doesn
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11-12-11 | Arizona v. Colorado +11 | 29-48 | Win | 100 | 39 h 59 m | Show | |
Colorado +11 (5* play); Colorado +345 (2* play) Colorado desperately wants a conference win to prove they belong. At home they haven
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11-12-11 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +17.5 | 66-6 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 30 m | Show | |
Texas Tech +17.5 (3.3* play) Oklahoma State is nearly unstoppable on offense and are now ranked 2nd in the nation, but their defense can not stop anyone so I begin to wonder if they really can win out and play LSU in the national championship (assuming LSU doesn
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11-12-11 | Ohio State v. Purdue +7.5 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
Purdue +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Purdue is just a different team at home as they are 4-1. Ohio State is also a completely different team on the road. Both teams want to run the ball and that
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11-12-11 | Texas v. Missouri +2 | Top | 5-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show |
Missouri +1.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) They must be the best 4-5 team in the league. Missouri is great after allowing 40+ points per game in previous game coming back to go 21-5 ATS. This is a team that could easily be 6-3 and then we
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11-11-11 | South Florida v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They |
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11-10-11 | Oakland Raiders +7.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show |
Raiders +7.5 (4.4* NFL POD)
Both teams should get conservative in this game because their inabilities to stop the run both are struggling and also both Qb |
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11-10-11 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +1 | Top | 37-26 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia Tech +1 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love it, both teams have extra preparation and that means more to Georgia Tech who will get healthy on their offensive line and at linebacker. Both teams will try to establish the run and I believe Georgia Tech will be plenty successful as they ran for over 300 yards vs. a good Clemson team and last year vs. Virginia Tech they ran for 346 yards and are even better this year and Virginia Tech is not as good as last year and seem to be panicking moving players around on defense as many as 5 position changes. That |
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11-09-11 | Miami (OH) +13 v. Temple | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
MIA OH +13 (4.4* NCAAF POD)+420 1* BONUS
If Miami OH can get passed this game I am confident they can lock up the MAC East. They only trail Ohio and the returning MAC Champions have pretty much everyone they had a year ago so there is no doubt they can win this game and 13 points is a lot in a game that is critical to both teams. For one Miami Ohio is a little banged up and playing their 3rd game in 11 days, However, Temple is banged up to I doubt their star RB Bernard Pierce will start and last year without them this same Miami Ohio defense held Temple to 2.5 yards per carry and 215 total yards. The defense has picked it up the last few games allowing 0 TD |
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11-08-11 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +6 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Bowling Green +6
I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green |
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11-07-11 | Chicago Bears +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Bears +9 (4.4* NFL POD) I don't see what reason the Eagles are this big of favorites. They clearly dominated Dallas last week, but I really feel that was not an indication of things to come. They were off a bye and as we all know Andy Reid is undefeated off a bye. Speaking of byes, the Bears are coming off a bye and this is a critical game because it could be a tie breaker that separates these two teams from the playoffs later in the season. For the Bears they are playing better and it's because they have a balanced offense and Cutler has been sacked just 3 times in the last 3 games. Can he continue that success? As long as they continue to feed Matt Forte I think they will. Vick has not played that well vs. the Bears in his career he's 0-3 as a starter and has a 76 rating and has been sacked 15 times in 5 games vs. Chicago. I look for the Bears to be in this game because of their defense, and special teams and ability to run the ball vs. the Eagles suspect defense. The last 4 games in this match up have been decided 3, 4, 4, and 5 points. Eagles do not deserve this much respect in what is a match up between two close teams in overall talent.
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11-06-11 | St. Louis Rams +1 v. Arizona Cardinals | 13-19 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Rams +1 (4* play) I believe the wrong team is favored here. Rams took a huge step forward last week against the Saints and they seem to be getting healthier each week. They had just 11 sacks in their 6 previous games and they sacked Drew Brees 6 times last week. Brees usually one to get the ball out very quickly struggled big time and Stephen Jackson took care of the rest on the ground. Cardinals are among one of the worst teams in protecting their QB allowing 24 sacks on the year and they'll likely start John Skelton who last year completed just 47% of his passes. I like the Rams again to win with defense and the running game.
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11-06-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tennessee Titans -2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Titans -2 (5.5* NFL POD) I love the way the Bengals have played thus far, but honestly who have they beaten? They are ranked 4th in total defense but to me they are beatable defending the pass and I think Hasselback will have a good game at home. Bengals despite winning last week were lucky to win on the road and it won't happen again this week. The QB's they have faced so far this season are Travaris Jackson, Curtis Painter, Blake Gabbert, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton, and McCoy. Add in Fitzpatrick at home where they came from behind and I'm not very impressed with their 9th ranked pass defense. Bengals have the Ravens and Steelers coming up on the schedule so I think they lose focus a little while the Titans are 3-1 at home and should have a better idea moving the ball by playing Javon Ringer at RB more. Chris Johnson really put them behind this season and the Titans defense is under rated they are ranked 11th in scoring defense. I think the Bengals will have issues moving the ball and scoring TD's.
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11-06-11 | Atlanta Falcons v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 31-7 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Colts +7 (3.3* play) Colts now return home where they will have a major edge at rushing the QB. Yes, I think the Falcons win, but closer than many think. the offensive line for the Falcons has been a mess all year and again they'll be without Sam Baker. Both Freeney and Mathis will be anxious with no sacks in their last 3 games. Ironically all of those were on the road. Will Matt Ryan and the Falcons stay with the run first mentality with Julio Jones returning? I'm not so sure they will and that will put them in big trouble on the road in my opinion. On the other side it's not like the Falcons are playing dominating defense. They give up yards in chunks and Painter at home had 277 yards 2 TD and 0 Interceptions. Look for Garcon and Wayne to get a lot of quick targets in the passing game. Falcons are 1-13 all time vs. the Colts.
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11-06-11 | Miami Dolphins +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Dolphins +4.5 (4.4* PLAY); Dolphins +190 (1* bonus) Love the Dolphins here as the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on Sunday following a Monday night game. A hell of a Monday night game it was and an emotional roller coaster to get there. Yes, the Chiefs are playing better, but the Dolphins are not nearly as bad as their record indicates and I'm going to stick with them to cover the spread as they've played in some close games. They also have been able to run the ball as of late and the Chiefs are ranked 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Dolphins get Daniel Thomas back and Bush is coming off a 100 yard game don't be surprised to see the Dolphins steal this game out right. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team and the Chiefs are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite.
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11-05-11 | LSU +5 v. Alabama | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 44 h 49 m | Show | |
LSU +5 (4.4* Prime Time Play) This is the game we have all been waiting for. In my opinion these teams are mirror images of each other. LSU has had the tougher schedule so the defensive stats, rushing stats, and 3rd down stats are slightly better on Alabama's side. That along with them being home is the reason why they are favorites, but I do not believe they have the better team. I thought this would be a -3.5 type game and because these teams are so even and both have great defenses and pro style offenses that lead to low scoring games I'm taking the under dog. LSU just has the better game in my opinion they have the advantage in the passing game with two experienced QB';s that have different strengths while Alabama has a QB with just 9 starts that has not seen a pass defense like this at all on the year. The two teams that have a defense remotely close to LSU has been Penn State and Florida and in both those games he was not nearly as good. Vs. Florida he was 12-25 for just 140 yards while LSU was a combined 10-14 215 yards 2 TD. LSU has the ability for big plays and I'm not sold on Alabama's secondary. I look for Ruben Randle to make another big play as he did last year in this match up with a 75 yard TD catch. I mentioned turnovers. Both teams do not turn it over much, but Alabama has forced just 14 turnovers, and they have given it up 8 times for a +6 margin while LSU has just been on a different level with 18 forced and 3 lost for a +15 margin. This team just makes plays to score points other than their offense and in a big defensive game like this one that will be the key. LSU additionally has the edge on the season in time of possession, and when we talk about stopping the run Alabama has been dominant this year allowing 1.67 yards per carry, but hold on who have they faced with a running game. We saw some plays early in the Florida game but then Florida lost their starting QB and Florida became one dimensional. Outside that they faced Penn State which we really can't say much about other than they would not compete in the SEC. Penn State is over rated but they had 107 yards rushing vs. Alabama in what was a competitive game early. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15. I'll be rooting for LSU the entire way, but won't be surprised to see Alabama pull it out by a field goal.. Both teams are pro style teams with run first mentalities and have good kicking games. There is a lot on the game so expect it to be played very closely.
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11-05-11 | South Florida v. Rutgers +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 48 m | Show | |
Rutgers +3 -120 (4* play) Rutgers held an advantage at half time vs. the Big East's best team in WEst Virginia 31-21 before they did not score a point in the 2nd half and finished the game -3 in turnovers. That's something they don't do often as they have 26 forced turnovers on the year and USF will give away their share of turnovers. Rutgers defense is just as good as Pitt and Uconn and USF came Northeast and could not do much vs. those two teams. Rutgers is aggressive they get sacks and they force turnovers. This is the exact match up USF did not want following their bye, they had a similar match up last year following extra preparation and were home as 10.5 point favorites to Rutgers. They did win, but by 1 point. Now they are on the road where they just can't win. The early season schedule has led to them being over hyped while Rutgers faced some challenges early for the first time in a few years that are continuing to pay off. Look for Rutgers to bounce back here they have home field, the more aggressive and better defense, and quietly have better weapons. I think USF plays man to man and comes up to blitz and that will be a mistake with WR Harrisson catching deep balls, and Mohammed Sanu another electrifying WR. USF can't stay on the field converting just 27.5% of 3rd downs ont he road, and Rutgers is holding opponents to 28% at home 25% in conference play. USF additionally can't get out of it's own way with 7.7 penalties per game. USF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite and if you ask me shouldn't be road favorites if they have 2 weeks off especially vs. a capable team like Rutgers.
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