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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-10 | North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 v. Florida State | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 21 m | Show | |
UNC +10.5 -110 5dimes (4-Dime Oddsline Error)
I like North Carolina as Florida State has faced 3 teams with run defenses this year and have struggled against each one with a 1-2 record with their only win being by 5 to Boston College who has an awful offense. North Carolina has the defense and play makers to contain Florida State and make Christian Ponder beat them which won't happen the way Ponder has been playing. DT Quinton Coples and linebackers Kevin REddick and Zach Brown will make some stops at the line of scrimmage to hold this game within winning distance all game. QB TJ Yates has been successful against some big defenses already this year that includes LSU and I think he'll come up with a surprisingly good game. This game is a little inflated do to UNC losing to William and Mary a week ago in the 4th quarter 17-7 before pulling off the come back. That has the public and oddsmakers doubting a very good defensive team one that has more offense than a year ago. I think this game is played within a touch down. |
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11-06-10 | Northwestern Wildcats v. Penn State -6 | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 21 m | Show | |
Penn State -6 -110 (4-Dime OE play)
This is another error in my opinion. Joe Pa goes for win #400 and the schedule has finally gotten easier. Penn State has seen an average defense ranked #39 in total defense and the last two weeks they have faced beatable defense much like Northwestern and they put up 74 points. RB Evan Royster was finally himself rushing for 150 yards against Michigan. QB Robert Bolden will return and will have a big game against Northwestern secondary that is very beatable especially late. They'll have to honor Royster which won't be pretty for the rest of the defense. Don't get me wrong Dan Persa has been really impressive was leading the nation in pass efficiency but that is going to start going the other way now that he's facing some decent pass defense. Penn STate is ranked 25th and will be the best he's faced all year as an average 75th pass defense just is not impressive. They have had one common opponent in Minnesota each team won. Penn State won by 12 while Northwestern won by 1. All 6 of Penn STates other games against D1 teams have been against quality teams going bowling like Alabama, Kent State, Temple, Iowa, Illinios and Michigan. Northwestern just can't compare to that and Penn State has all motivation on their side as well. |
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11-06-10 | Texas Christian Horned Frogs v. Utah Utes +5 | Top | 47-7 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 22 m | Show |
Utah +5 -110 5dimes (5.5 Dime POD) Utah +180 1-Dime
This is the biggest game of the weekend right here as two top 5 programs meet from the Mountain West Conference. This is strength vs. strength and UTah is the home team as under dogs. Kyle Whittingham is part of my fondest memories as a handicapper and better. The head coach of Utah is under rated for preparing for big games. That memory was when they shocked Alabama in their bowl game in 2008 as under dogs of 10 points as they cruised to a 31-17 game. That's not why I'm taking Utah here on Saturday. TCU is a legit defense but their loss of DT Kelly Griffin can not go unnoticed. He was a 4 year Sr. and a huge leader on the field. Taking up that spot are two 270lb DT's and that is where I think Utah can have some success because TCU is the fastest defense they have faced all year. So what you want to do is keep it up the middle where you can pick up yards quick and I think Eddie Wide and Matt Ariata are very good at that. Utah still must play defense however. Andrew Dalton has struggled in these spot light games and it really makes me wonder about him and I just can't back him in this game. Boise State bowl game comes to mind last year and on the road and in neutral games this year he's just 58-100 with 5 TD's and 4 Ints. I expect him to make a few mistakes here this weekend as Utah can bring pressure they've got 23 sacks on the year while TCU has allowed 5 sacks. This will be another key that Utah can take advantage of with being at home. Jordan Wynn made his firs tstart in last years loss to TCU but now he's ready to win this big spotlight game in my opinion. Utah has several other X-factors including the fastest man ont he field in REggie Dunn and Shaky Smithson who is leading the nation in punt return yardage and hurt TCU a year ago. I expect a wide open playbook for Wynn and co and TE Devonte Christopher who has some size advantage at 6'5 to have a couple of big plays. |
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11-06-10 | Rice Owls +17 v. Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 27-64 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Rice +17 (3.3 Dime play)
This line that opened at 18.5 has continued to go down to 17 and even 16.5 in some places. I like the play as Tulsa is coming off their biggest win in school history. Im not saying that, but the team is we had Tulsa last week over Notre Dame and they won outright 29-28 for their biggest win in history. This is let down time for Tulsa and although they'll win Rice will be in position to scare Tulsa a team that can't stop anyone with a the 120th ranked pass defense that's the only thing Rice really does well on offense with QB Nick FAnuzzi throwing 7 TD's in his last three games without an interception. Rice upset a similar team at home in Houston 34-31. Their schedule is loaded with bowl teams so I'm not so sure that this team is better than their record and ranking indicate as they have faced Texas, Northwestern, Baylor, SMU, Houston and UCF already. |
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11-06-10 | Virginia Cavaliers v. Duke Blue Devils | 48-55 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
Virginia -1 (5-Dime Early Bird Special)
Love Virginia Duke comes off a huge win last week against Navy who they have always handled and Navy just wasn't ready after they came off a big win. But this is strength vs. strength and Dukes strength is going to have issues. I'm talking about inconsisent Sean Renfree who looked great last week but still has 11 TD to 15 interceptions and he faces a secondary ranked 18th in the nation and has more interceptions than allowed passing touchdowns. This is a huge revenge spot for Virginia as they lost this game at home last year. This is a team that just beat Miami forcing 5 interceptions so watch out Renfree. Duke lost to Miami when they played them 13-28. I think Duke won't be able to stop Virginia this time around look for Keith Payne who is a bruising running back to have a good game along side of Perry Jones who can hit the edge. Duke is 103rd in total defense 102nd vs. the run and 88 vs. the pass. They have not faced anyone with a great offense besides Alabama so Virginia who can show some balance should be able to score points. |
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11-05-10 | Central Florida Golden Knights v. Houston Cougars +2.5 | Top | 40-33 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
Bobcats -1 (3.3 Dime POD); Houston +3 -125 betonline buy 1/2 (3.5 Dimes)
Bobcats line has moved from -1 Detroit to -1 Bobcats with just 28% of the public on the Bobcats. I'll take the Bobcats who play excellent defense on the road. Houston is starting to put their offense together and their defense is better than years past. David Piland has come off two huge games without throwing any interceptions he'll have a test tonight at home against UCF the best defense they have faced up to this point. UCF also has not faced a team that passes like Houston and their offense may be better than years past as they can actually run the ball to with 20 rushing touchdowns and the 43rd rushing attack. These two always play close and this game will be close too. Houston gets revenge. |
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11-05-10 | Western Mich +3.5 v. Central Mich | Top | 22-26 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Western Mich +3.5 (4.4 Dime POD) Wmich +150 (2-Dime Bonus)
This is the best passing offense that Central Michigan has had to face all year and they are riding high after nearly coming up with a victory against Northern Illinois last week as Western Mich's Alex Carder threw for 300+ yards and 3 TD's including 14 receptions to Jordan White who has 180 yards. He's been unstoppable and I don't think Central Mich can cover him. Central Mich is 1-5 in the conference and they have had all sorts of problems with turnovers. Their QB has 15 interceptions and Western Mich can take the ball away as they have 20 forced turnovers on the year. They 9 interceptions which is good for #37 in the nation and they are tied for 7th in fumbles recovered. These two teams have had two common opponents Northern Illinois the favorite to win the MAC and Ball State the results couldn't be more different. Western Mich @ Ball State won 45-16 +132 total yards while Cmich lost at home 17-31 -65 yards. Northern Illinoisbeat Western Mich 28-21, but were only +20 yards where they beat up on Central Mich 33-7 +115 yards. Western Mich has more talent this year and will put some revenge on this huge rivalry game this year. |
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11-04-10 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13 v. Virginia Tech Hokies | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Georgia Tech +13 (4.4-Dime pod play)
Both teams come off a bye week and will be well prepared for this game I can tell you that. With that said I think it will be closer than many think because Georgia Tech has some time to put together a game plan for the rushing offense they are about to see and same goes for Virginia Tech. The last few match ups in this series have been close. Although Georgia Tech has not been the same as a year ago I still think they have similar talent on offense to give Virginia Tech troubles. They Jacket secondary is the real deal led by Dominique Reese. This unit has allowed only 1 passing TD in their last 4 games. Virginia Tech will try to get it done on the ground which means a shortened game with the clock constantly ticking. Vtech had the bye at the wrong time in my opinion they were a hot team scoring at least 41 points in 5 of 6 games after starting the season with a surprising 0-2 start. Now they'll have to get back up to that gear after no facing anyone since NC State 4 games ago. Virginia Tech faced Nc State and Boston college back to back and Georgia Tech has a very similar defense to both those teams in the top 55 in total defense. Georgia Tech better against the pass than both teams and similar to the run and scoring defense. Virginia Tech was held to 19 points against Boston College and although they beat NC State 41-30 they were in trouble for most of that game and Nc States defense is not as good as the paper shows, Georgia Tech's D is better. Georgia Tech has faced this type of team before in North Carolina yes they are similar in defense and offense believe it or not and they went on the road and won 30-24. Now Virginia Tech is much better than North Carolina but I think Georgia Tech can put up some numbers tonight as the front seven for Virginia Tech is not as good as usual and will have trouble defending the triple option. |
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11-03-10 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +10.5 v. South Florida Bulls | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Rutgers +10.5 (4-Dimes); Rutgers +350 (1-Dime)@5DIMES
South Florida came off their best performance and Rutgers came off their worst defensive performance. The result is in my opinion a inflated line. South Florida played what was an uncharacteristic game as BJ Daniels 13 of 16 vs. Cinci is impressive he still had 10 interception going into that game and although he threw for 286 yards and 0 INT he went up against 98th pass defense. Here he goes up against a similar defense that he has struggled against much of this season. Rutgers ranked 29th overall is 28th vs. the pass and 44th vs. the run and 25th overall in scoring defense. Daniels struggled big time a year ago with Steve Beauharnais spying him and I think he comes back down to earth. On the other side Rutgers defense was bad, but the loss of DT Eric LeGrand who was paralyzed from the neck down in the Army game was tough to handle and they got beat by a Pitt team that was more physical than them. However, Pitt has a much better offense tha South Florida who is ranked 95th and couldn't score a touchdown at home vs. Syracuse or West Virginia and Daniels was awful. I think the time off has allowed Rutgers to heal mentally a little bit more and physically as their best player Mohammed Sanu looks more healthy and Joe Martinek (25 carries 125 yards last year) is also healthy going into this game. I do expect a very vanilla offense as their offensive line has been awful this year and with a true freshmen in Chris Dodd behind center expect lots of runs keeping this game as what it should be a low scoring defensive game giving Rutgers a shot at pulling it out in the end. Expect Daniels to throw one or two interceptions against an always opportunistic defense. Rutgers has always played well with extra preparation and I think South Florida is playing with too much confidence. Both teams have played good defenses all season and their offenses have struggled because of it. Believe it or not Rutgers passing game is a little better and South Florida's run game is a little better. In the end I trust the defense of Rutgers over South Florida and judging by the history of this match up you should too |
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11-02-10 | Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 v. Arkansas State Red Wolves | Top | 24-51 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
MTSU -1.5 (4.4 Dime POD)
I love the Blue Raiders tonight despite being under dogs as I think they match up very well with Arkansas pass happy team. MTSU is 35th in the league in pass defense and that's facing an average 60th attack so they have been tested and have passed particularly against two common opponents in ULLAF and ULMON who they both waxed as they controlled the game of two top 50 passing attacks. I look for MTSU to get this done with their conference leading pass rush. Jamari Lattimore might be the Sun Belt defensive player of the year with 8.5 sacks he's tied for third in the nation. MTSU also should be able to do a lot on offense as this may be the worst defense they have faced all year ranked 116th and can't seem to do anything well. Many will say it's because they have faced a tough schedule with offensive teams like Louisville Indiana and Auburn on the schedule, but I still think Middle Tenn who can run and pass the ball with a dual threat QB as good as any in Dwight Dasher on the roster will give ARkansas State all sorts of problem. MTSU leads this series 9-2 and if they want to continue that they can't turn the ball over. That's something Dasher has done too often, but against a team that really doesn't force many turnovers except in their last game vs. Florida Atlantic (105th in total offense). This stat is over rated for MTSU they led their conference and were among the national leaders in turnover margin now they are one of the worst. Dasher has been inconsistent and when they got waxed last time on national TV vs. Troy he had gotten hurt and came back and that was his first game back after suspension. I think he redeems himself big time tonight against a bad defense and he gets the spot light win. QB Ryan Alpin is part of a one dimensional offense and has to face another team that can get to the QB and has a pass defense. Last week against Florida Atlantic who has a solid pass defense ranked 23rd similar to what MTSU offers they struggled through the first 3 quarters before scoring 28 in the final quarter. That won't happen this week against a MTSU defense that is fighting for bowl eligibility and possibly a split of the conference crown! |
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11-01-10 | Houston Texans +6 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Texans +6 -120 buy 1/2 (4.5 Dime POD); hou/ind o45/+11.5 teaser
I like the Texans to take advantage of a Colts team that is pretty beat up. Both teams have key injuries despite coming off a bye, but again this has been a match up that has been close the past few years and I think it will again tonight. Look for Peyton Manning to pick up the pace because he doesn't have much of a running game with Mike Hart the third string the starter. I think to take advantage of a weaker offense he'll go no huddle a few times. On the other side look for Houston off the bye to look good offensively. I don't think Foster has another monster game as he did in week 1, but I think Schaub and the offense will continue clicking. |
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10-31-10 | Minnesota Vikings +6 v. New England Patriots | 18-28 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Vikings +6 (3.3 Dime OE play)
Favre certainly gives his team the best shot to win and I think he will today against the Patriots who do not have the defense to stop Favre and a revamped set of receivers. Favre will have one of his better games passing as the Patriots do not get much of a pass rush which is something Favre should be excited for. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a great game on short routes and screens and I think the defense really steps up today to help hte offense out. Vikings 24 Patriots 21. |
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10-31-10 | Washington Redskins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 25-37 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
Lions -2.5 (4-Dime OE play)
Lions come off the by and have been great at home score 44 and 32 against two pretty good teams in the Rams and the Eagles. Sunday they'll be looking to do it against the Redskins a bottom of the league defense. Redskins are better than what they have shown no doubt on defense, but playing a team like the Lions after a bye is a dangerous task that I don't think they'll be able to deliver on with a less than 100% McNabb. We have cashed in on the REdskins many times this year including last weeks 5.5 Dime POD, but this week we feel it necessary to fade them as I really like how the Lions have played against a very tough schedule. They have come to play every week and this week with Stafford back they'll have a lot of juice. |
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10-31-10 | Denver Broncos v. San Francisco 49ers -2 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
49ers -2 (4.4 Dime POD);
49ers get Troy Smith to start at QB and I think he adds a completely new dynamic to this game. Ya he's short, yes he can have trouble inside the pocket throwing, but at the end of the day I think he's going to provide a huge spark for this team here today. Broncos just got a big beat down from the Raiders last week and I think the 49ers will hurt them with Frank Gore here today as they are ranked 30th defending the run. Troy Smith will get outside the pocket and make plays that Alex Smith could not. I really like the line movement on this game despite all the public being on the Broncos. |
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10-30-10 | Oregon Ducks v. Southern California Trojans +7 | 53-32 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
USC +7 -120 buy 1/2 point (5-Dime Play)
Everyone and the public are Oregon Ducks 72% and the line has not moved if anything it's gone from +6.5 to +6, but I'm buying a half point for a full touchdown. USC is by far the best offense that Oregon has faced all year as they have faced an average 74th attack. Oregon has actually only faced an average 85th defense so I'm still skeptical about how good the Ducks actually are. USC also has 4 extra days of preparation and will be ready for this game at home. Sit back and fasten your seat belts this will be a back and forth game with lots of points. If you need something else to weigh this game look at the common opponent in Stanford. Stanford is about as close as it gets to what Oregon will have to face and Stanford was up by a TD on Oregon at half time. IN the end Oregon cruised in the 2nd half, but Matt Barkley and the USC offense have more athletes than Stanford extra prep and the home crowd behind them. |
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10-30-10 | Utah Utes v. Air Force Falcons +7 | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 60 m | Show | |
Air Force +7 -110 (4.4Dime Play)
I love the home dog here. Air Force coming off the loss to TCU and Utah walked all over Colorado State at home. This line is a bit off for those two reasons and I'll take advantage as the two have played many close games in the last few years as Air Force has given Utah many problems including last years 23-16 over time victory for Utah. Utah has had a weak schedule probably the weakest among ranked teams. They have faced 93rd average defense and 104th average offense. So don't take their rankings too seriously. There is a reason the line has not moved at all despite 81% of the public putting their money on Utah -7 on the road. Utah has not faced a team with a run game this good since Pitt and Pitt was banged up, and they have not faced a secondary even close to being this good all season. With that said I think Air Force will slow the game down run the ball like they always do and keep the game within reach. They have faced Colorado STate and Wyoming like Utah and the results have been similar with a 49-27 win against Col State and a 20-14 win over Wyoming while Utah won 30-6 and 59-6. Utah hasn't faced a team like Air Force unless you call them Pitt who nearly beat Utah in a 3 point loss, but Air Force has faced a team very similar to Utah in San Diego State. San Diego State can do it all on offense and defense so far this year and they have faced a more challenging schedule. yet on the road Air Force nearly came up with an upset but lost 25-27 despite being +35 in total yards. |
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10-30-10 | San Jose State Spartans -3 v. New Mexico State Aggies | 27-29 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 29 m | Show | |
San Jose -3 -115 5dimes (4.5Dime OE)
Last week we had a similar game with Kent State and they won in a route! This week I like another toilet bowl game and I like San Jose St big as they have faced the most difficult schedule in the nation. This is a schedule that has featured Boise State, Utah, Wisconsin and Alabama. Their offensive ranks are not as bad as the 119th rank says as they have faced an average 24th ranked defense with all 6 being in the top 58. The offense has started to come together as Noel Grigsby had a huge game a week ago against Fresno State team that is ranked 32nd in pass defense. They were only -14 yards in the loss and cover. San Jose is getting it done with some young talent and defense has started to improve too despite their 107th rank they too have faced an average 25th ranked offense and they will face a team ranked 117th this week which should be a breath of fresh air. New Mexico State has a worst defense ranked 118th. San Jose hasn't faced a team they can beat all year and now they finally will where as New Mexico State has faced New Mexico I just feel San Jose has started to play better and they have been in tough games which will make them stronger moving forward. |
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10-30-10 | East Carolina Pirates +8 v. Central Florida Golden Knights | 35-49 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 59 m | Show | |
East Carolina +8 -120 buy 1/2 (3.5 Dime EB play)
East Carolina and Central Florida square off on Saturday where the winner will be the favorite to win the conference. East Carolina is a different team than their past their offense is really surprising many ranked 36th on the season. Central Florida features #7 total defense, but they have faced 1 team with a pulse in the passing game and that was NC State and they lost by a TD at home. Now they feature Dominique Davis who can hurt them ast hey are ranked 13th in the passing game in the nation. Really like this game to stay close as the recent meetings have. East Carolina has owned Central Florida with 4 wins in a row and 8 of 9. Either way it will be a close game and I think this is too many points for UCF that hasn't faced a stronger schedule than East Carolina. Both teams have similar results against common opponents in NC State and Marshal. East Carolina was +20 vs. NC state and Marshall +127 both at home while UCF was +69 vs. NC State and +123 at Marshall. East Carolina has faced an opponent with a Top 15 defense in Southern Miss that draws even more common traits to Central Florida with a 31st rushing attack and 53rd passing game. UCF is 89 and 30th very similar with a strong defense. East Carolina and their up tempo offense went on the road and won 44-43 against Southern Miss. |
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10-30-10 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +9 v. Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 59 m | Show | |
Tulsa +8.5 -110 (4-Dime EB play)
Many who know me know I love to fade Notre Dame. This week is nothing different with a very dangerous Tulsa team that can score with the best of them coming in with extra preparation as they were on a bye week last year. QB GJ Kinne the former QB that played behind Colt Mccoy called this the be biggest game in school history. This is a game that many want Tulsa to be competitive in since it will be on national television on Saturday. That's not why they cover. They cover because they have the extra week and they are going against a Notre Dame secondary that is very beatable. Notre Dame faced two balanced teams this year at home in Michigan and Stanford and they lost both. Tulsa has faced three teams that remind me of what Notre Dame can do and can not do. Tulane SMU, and East Carolina all feature Top passing games, but a poor running game. All three feature subpar defenses, but SMU is clearly better than Notre Dame as they nearly defeated Navy a couple weeks ago as Navy just killed Notre Dame. Tulsa lost 18-21 to an SMU team on the road despite getting two field goals blocked. AGainst Tulane and East Carolina they put up 101 points. They lost on a hail mary 49-51 to East Carolina and they beat Tulane two weeks ago 52-24. This is a very dangerous game for Notre Dame who is licking their wounds after getting pounded by Navy. Now they face a passing team ranked 28th that can also run ranked 12th. A balanced offense is not what they want in this situation and that's exactly what Tulsa has. Tulsa will give up yards too so I'm expecting a shoot out. Tulsa's 120th ranked pass defense will face Notre Dame ranked 18th, but couple reasons this doesn't scare me like it may have many on Notre Dame. #1 Tulsa has faced passing attacks all season with 5 in the top 50 in passing offense so this is nothing new and probably why they are ranked so low in pass defense. #2 Notre Dame is banged up Cris has already lost Rudolph for hte season and while Michael Floyd is probably he'll lose Theo Riddick who is doubtful those are his top three targets all with injuries. Tulsa has a lot of next level talent nobody has heard of. FB Chris Clay is a player Notre Dame can't prepare for and hasn't seen all year. he is tied in receptions on this team with Demaris Johnson the nations leader in all purpose yards a year ago. Johnson can hurt you in punt or kick returns and might be the fastest player on the field. |
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10-30-10 | Northern Illinois v. Western Mich +7 | 28-21 | Push | 0 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
Western Mich +7.5 (4-Dime EB play)
This line has moved like crazy despite only 23% of the public on Western Micht he line has moved from +9 to +7.5 and +7 in some places. This is the best passing game Northern Illinois will see all year in my opinion and though they are ranked 39th defending it they have an average opponent ranked 71st. Alex Carder and the receiving corps at home will give Northern Illinois a lot to handle and will take the early lead making it hard for Northern Illinois to come back with a 101st passing attack. |
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10-30-10 | Northwestern Wildcats v. Indiana Hoosiers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
Indiana +3.5 betonline (5.5 Dime POD) & +150 (1.5 Dime Bonus!)
I love Indiana this week this is not a good match up for Northwestern and if you recall they were down 25-0 last year before Indiana choked that lead away. The last three meetings have all been decided by 6 points. Northwestern is off a devastating home loss as they blew a 17 point lead and I don't think they recover from that this week. Northwestern's 88th passing defense will be tested by Ben Chapel and Tandon Doss at WR who are ranked 6th in passing offense. Their secondary has been just awful. I remember having Northwestern at home against Central Michigan and they could not stop the team down the stretch. Central Michigan did lose 30-25 but were just -5 yards on the road. Reason I bring this up is Central Mich has very similar rankings. They are one dimensional 19th pass 96th run and they feature a subpar defense much like Indiana. But Indiana has a better offense and will take advantage of Northwestern's weakness on offense which I'll get to in a minute. Both teams have similar defense ranked 67th and 77th with Northwestern better, but they have faced an average opponent ranked 71st in total offense while Indiana has faced 51st. Facing Michigan and Ohio State and Illinois is much more impressive than a resume of Northwestern that has only Michigan State. This is a must win for Indiana if they hope to go bowling with Wisconsin and Penn State up next. The closest team that Indiana has faced that compared to what Northwestern is would be Arkansas State as they too have a pass game and a below average running game. Indiana beat that team 36-34 and out gained them by 158 yards at home. Indiana has only allowed 7 sacks this year on 295 attempts so Chapel will have the quick time to throw in what is a dink and dunk offense much like Northwestern is. The difference is Northwestern's offensive line is abysmal. They have given up 25 sacks this year and Indiana will finally get a pass rush. ON defense they look bad, but they have had some decent stops when they have to come up with them. Persa should have over 300 yards passing against, but Indiana and Ben Chapel will have more. Northwestern's run game has been awful as their running backs have less than 4ypc and have had fumbling issues. Other factors are Northwestern's kicking game which has been awful. Demos has missed 7 field goals (2 blocked) and 4 extra points (1 blocked). This does not bode well for what will be a close game. Home team has won all three of the last games and they will again today. |
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10-28-10 | Florida State v. North Carolina State +4 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
NC State +4 -105 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
NC State will host Florida State for the division lead. Both come off byes and will be plenty prepared for this game. Many have said Florida State's defense has improved well we will find out tonight as Florida State gave up 349 yards passing and 5 TD's in a 45-42 win at home against NC State and Russell Wilson a year ago. One thing is for sure both teams are better and right now Florida State is hotter as they won 5 in a row and NC State just lost to East Carolina. So that's why you see NC State as a home dog here, but I'm not buying into FSU just yet. This is just the second time they are facing a team with a passing game in the top 20. The first time they lost 17-47 at Oklahoma. NC State has a better passing game ranked #7 and a similar rushing attack ranked 83rd. I also like the fact that NC State has faced a much stronger schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranked 48th, while FSU has faced 64th. On defense NC State has seen an average offensive attack ranked 53rd, while FSU stands in at 69th. I just feel NC State has been tested on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. The key will be can they stop the run. They got killed on the ground against Virginia Tech which is the closest resemblance of what FSU does which is run the ball. Virginia Tech is a bit better than FSU on both sides of the ball yet NC State led 24-13 in the third and 27-21 in the 4th quarter and were losing 34-30 before a garbage TD with 34 seconds left. They were +67 yards despite the loss. I believe the time off has allowed them to put together a plan for a one dimensional offense and FSU's QB Skinner will have some issues here as he is not 100%. Another key is whether or not Wilson will turn the ball over when he doesn't NC State has the passing game to compete with any. I still don't like Florida State's secondary they are still young and Oklahoma's Landry Jones just tore him up. Boston College's pass game is awful so the 10 pass defenses do not surprise me. FSU has just 6 picks this year so Wilson's INT problems shouldn't be a huge issue going into tonight. |
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10-26-10 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +38.5 v. Boise State | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
La Tech +38 -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
Let's get the week started off on a high note with La Tech heading to the blue turf as monster under dogs. This team only lost by 10 a year ago to Boise and to start the year they have faced a much more challenging schedule with three top 10 passing attacks and 4 top defenses inside the top 37! Boise really can not say the same as they have faced yes a cup cake schedule despite facing virginia tech to open who we know was just awful early in the season Boise faced Oregon State at home who is also not as advertised. Overall they have faced an average defense ranked 91st with 4 of the 6 opponents in the 100's in total defense. Same goes on the other side of the ball as their #1 claimed total defense in the nation is solid no doubt, but look at who they have played. An average 95th ranked offense. They really haven't faced a balanced attack at all this year. This line is inflated because the public 85% on Boise to start are buying in that Boise has to do something to prove they are worth be ranked #1, but 38 points against a solid LA tech team that is 51st in total offense 42nd pass, 61st run and that's them facing an average 50th defense including TX AM, Navy, Southern Miss and a surprising Hawaii team. On defense their ranks are bad no doubt 113th overall but htey have faced some top flight offenses already with some big passing games. Any teams numbers would look a little down in this spot. Both teams have had some extra time off to prepare and I think that really benefits LA Tech in terms of covering this whopping 38 point spread. LA tech has been on fire in their past two games gaining 1,110 yards behind QB Ross Jenkins and RB Lennon Creer who has back to back 100 yard games. LA tech runs a fast-paced offense out of the spread that could give Boise some problems as they will play lose with trick plays. |
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10-25-10 | NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Cowboys -3 -120 betus (4.8 Dime POD)
I like the Cowboys here I think they get rid of the mistakes when they are at home again here. Cowboys have had a very difficult schedule to start the season and now they come home to play an inter division battle with the Giants who swept them a year ago. Cowboys have talent it's all the mental mistakes that have held them back. Cowboys are #3 in total yards on offense and #3 in total yards allowed on defense, but they are #28 and #31 in points scored and allowed. The two do not go hand in hand. Many know this and I think they finally put their act together here tonight. |
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10-24-10 | Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
Vikings +3 -110 bodog (4-Dime Play)
I like the Vikes tonight as Favre is starting to click with the offense as they looking more and more healthy with Percy harvin and Randy Moss. On the other side the Packers are beat up with injuries all over the place and I think they'll continue to struggle here against a Viking team that is going to start rounding into form. Packers are 21st against the run and I think the Vikings and Adrian Peterson will control the game. Minny is #6 vs. the pass and that's a bad match up for a Packers team that can't seem to run the ball going against the strength of this Vikings team. |
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10-24-10 | New England Patriots v. San Diego Chargers -2 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers -2.5 (4-Dime OE play)
I've liked this game since the beginning of the week. The public loves the Patriots almost everyone I talk to is saying how the Patriots walk in here and easily win, but I keep thinking to myself no way. Sure the Chargers have looked awful against some very bad teams.. Raiders and the Rams come to mind, but they are still 2-0 at home and put up 38 and 41 points in their two home games and they are playing a defense that is ranked in the bottom third of the league. The next thing people tell me is that the Chargers are banged up. Yes that they are on both sides of the ball.. Heck their kicker is even out of this game, but they still have the two key parts on offense in Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. Rivers still has some tall targets to throw to and the Patriots secondary is pretty bad. I like Rivers to have a big game and I see Ryan Matthews going over 100 yards rushing for the first time. On the other side of the ball the Chargers have played great defense #1 in yards allowed and #1 against the pass which is what the Patriots will try to do pass the ball. |
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10-24-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Miami Dolphins | 23-22 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Steelers -3 (3.3 Dime Play)Steelers -3 on the road and I get it the Dolphins have won on the road against the Vikings and Packers that is impressive, and so that is why they are playing the Steelers with respect, but their offense ins highly inconsistent and now they face YES, the best defense in the league. Dolphins are playing over their head the Packers were banged up and so were the Vikings when they beat them. This team already lost to the Patriots and the Jets here both teams of which are not as good as the Steelers. Unfortunately for the Dolphins they go 0-3 at home in three tough match ups. Miami #23 scoring defense and #24 scoring offense that's not match for a Steelers offense ranked #10 and mostly without Big Ben and the #1 scoring defense. Steelers escape 20-10.
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10-24-10 | Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 32-39 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Bengals +3.5 4.4 Dime EB play;I like the Bengals coming off a bye week to play the Falcons. The Falcons struggle in this type of match up. All three of their close games with two of them being losses have come against opponents that play defense and are hard hitters. That's exactly what the Bengals will be here today and a Falcons team that is coming off a hard hitting battle with the Eagles a week ago are going to have issues just like they had against the Steelers and Niners at home too.
Bengals defense is very under rated and as the public pours in on the Falcons the line continues to move the other way. I expect this game to come down to a field goal either way. Falcons are 25th vs. the pass and the Bengals are 7th passing the ball with weapons all over the field. Look for Jermaine Gresham to have some key plays in this game and for the running game to have a little juice coming off the bye. |
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10-24-10 | Washington Redskins +3 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Redskins +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD)
First of all if you are buying into a Redskins total defense ranked dead last you are not paying attention. Redskins have arguably the toughest schedule starting the year in terms of the offenses their defense have had to go against. They had the Packers, Cowboys, Colts, Texans, and the Eagles. Those are total offense ranks of 13, 2, 4, 5, and 3. With the Rams coming in at 20th as their other opponent. Hard for any defense to look good, but now they face Cutler and the Bears. Cutler is a dynamic player if he wants to be, but he makes too many poor decisions and his offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. He's been sacked 15 times in his last two games and I don't see them winning this game despite being at home. Their offenses doesn't do anything well ranked in the bottom third in every offensive statistical category including 29th in total offense, 22, 26 in pass/run offense and 22nd in points scored. Now they do have a solid defense especially against the run, but they are 18th vs. the pass the strength of an improving passing game from McNabb that's already ranked 9th. McNabb gets better every week and the running game has started to click a little with Ryan Torrain who knows Shanahan's offense being able to put up some big numbers. At the end of the day this will be a low scoring defensive game and I trust McNabb over Cutler to not make mistakes. |
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10-23-10 | Tulane Green Wave +10 v. UTEP Miners | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Tulane +10 -110 (4.4 Dime LNF)
I love Tulane here tonight as they are a desperate team playing a UTEP team that has not looked very good since their schedule has started to pick up. Let's start by saying that Tulane has faced a schedule featuring Tulsa, Army, Rutgers, Houston and Miss all teams likely going bowling and two non -conference teams that are much more talented in Rutgers and Miss. Utep on the other hand played some of the worst teams in the nation New Mexico State, New Mexico and Memphis all three have 116, 115, and 117 total offenses it's no wonder UTEP's defense is ranked 67th as they have faced an average opponent ranked 82nd. The defenses they have seen have been even worse if you can beleive that. UAB last week shut this team down and you were along for the ride. Tulane now has arguably an even better defense statistically than UAB. UTEP facing an average 99th ranked defense with UAB the best thus far at 71. Tulane comes in ranked 65th and 27th against the pass which is the best combo UTEP has seen. Tulane has been tested too with three teams having top 54 offensive programs and then Army who has 8th ranked rushing attack. Their 94th run defense is not that bad as they have faced 4 top 20 running teams. Again I said it before Tulane desperate on the road and the public is all over UTEP -10.5 at 72%, but the line is dropping to 9.5 in some places. I'm liking my chances and Ryan Griffin will have a big day as he will start just one week after a career high 412 yards passing against Tulsa. Trevor Vittatoe looks to be upgraded as probably for UTEP but I still like Tulane as this is the best pass defense they have faced all year long since Houston ranked 39th. Both these teams have played Houston on the road actually. Houston beat both, but they only beat Tulane by 19 and had just +18yards of total offense. Against UTEP they were +216 yards and won by 30. |
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10-23-10 | Oklahoma Sooners v. Missouri Tigers +3 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
Missouri +3 -110 betonline (4.4 Dime Prime Time)
Missouri has had troubles with Oklahoma in the past but this is revenge for their loss in the 2008 Big 12 Championship. This is the closest match up between these two teams in many years in my opinion. 77% of the public is jumping on Oklahoma and their #1 ranking but hte line has dropped from +3.5 to +3. Oklahoma has not faced a passing game that is this good. The closest thing is a Cinci team that they also played on the road and barely beat 31-29. Cinci did not have their act together then either and now they are ranked 43rd. Missouri is ranked 19th and they are not turning the ball over like in years past. Oklahoma has 81st pass defense and they got that mark by facing an 81st average passing attack. Air Force doesn't really even attempt to pass yet they still are ranked 82st. Missouri also has a better defense than what Cincinnati has shown which makes this game even more desirable as Missouri is very strong up front and ranked 29th overall in total defense. Missouri was a huge question mark, but now they are starting to become the real deal as they beat a very similar team last week on the road in Texas A&M in which they forced turnovers and dominated the game in a 30-9 win. A&M ranked 18th in total offense 10 in pass 63 in run.. Sound familiar? Oklahoma is 17/12/56.. So similar and Missouri held that team to 9 points on the road. Now dont' get me wrong Oklahoma is much more of a challenge, but their defense is not typical Oklahoma defense and Missouri should be able to keep QB Blaine Gabbert clean. He's been flawless this season and he's looking like a mature confident passer. Defense gets a premier pass rusher back in Aldon Smith look for him to play 10-15 plays and give Landry Jones some pressure. The defensive line overall has played well and they are stopping the run too which is what they'll have to do against DeMarco Murray. They've only allowed three rushing scores all year long. AT the end of the day Oklahoma is not the same Oklahoma team of years past. They haven't had a difficult schedule to really make me say wow they should be favorites and Missouri could be in great shape if they win this game with Nebraska on deck. |
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10-23-10 | Kent State -2 v. Bowling Green St Falcons | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 39 h 7 m | Show | |
Kent State -2.5 (3.3 Dime Oddsline Error)
Looking on paper the public love Bowling Green 60% but they opened up at +1 and have moved to +2 and +2.5. This moves to a full field goal by game time, but I like Kent State none the less. They are favored on the road for a reason. A team that has lost 16 of their last 17 at Bowling Green is out for revenge after losing in the last second in a 36-35 game. Spencer Keith is a nother year older at QB for Kent and he put up 35 points on a more veteran BG defense. Bowling Green is really banged up both starting CB's look to be out as Lorenzi is suspended one is not going to be 100% if he gives it a go. WR Sam Kirkland for Kent could have a big day he has 31 receptions already. Bowling Green's starting RB could be out too and their OL is a mess starting a guy who was a defensive lineman at the beginning of the year. This is going to be a big game for a guy not many know about freshmen DT Roosevelt Nix who has 10 tackles and 6.5 sacks is a beast sitting in the middle of what Bowling Green wants to do. Kent has #19 total defense in the land compared to Bowling Green's one dimensional #100 offense. While Kent has not really seen many offense this year I don't think they'll be tested on Saturday again. Bowling Green will pass a lot ranked 35th is a lot like Miami Ohio and Kent lost on the road by 6, but difference is Miami Ohio actually has a defense and was healthy. Bowling Green is banged up and their defense is ranked 116th in the nation. |
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10-23-10 | Louisiana St Tigers +6 v. Auburn Tigers | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 7 m | Show |
LSU +6 +100 Matchbook (5.5Dimes)+195 (1-Dime)
I love LSU in this spot and I think they have more talent than Auburn. Everyone says LSU has no offense, but the fact of the matter is they have faced some very good defense in and out of conference. An average defense ranked 42nd including 39th vs. the pass. LSU just caught a break as they face Auburn who can not stop anyone ranked 108th on pass defense. This will be the worst defense LSU has faced all year and that will help them big time in this game. Florida is the closest thing to Auburn who is ranked 82nd vs. the pass and LSU won on the road 33-29. LSU has the best defense and I'll take defense over offense anytime they also have arguably the best special teams in the SEC too. I think Jarret Lee and Jordan Jefferson are going to give Auburn plenty of problems. WR is deep for LSU and they have talent all over the field. LSU also comes off what looks like a bye as they faced Mcnese State last week and they have a real bye after this game before facing Alabama. Right now LSU has much more focus on this game while Auburn had to play Arkansas a week ago. Just like LSU hasn't faced a defense this bad.. Auburn has not faced a defense this good. So that's two things in our direction that give me confidence. The last time they faced a defense that could sniff what LSU can do was Miss St and they squeeked by 17-14 on the road. We already know LSU is better than MIss State ast hey beat them 29-7 this year. Hold on Auburn we got a 15th ranked rush defense that looks good against LSU. Not that it matters because Auburn is so so bad vs. the pass, but their rush defense is over rated because most people bomb away vs. Auburn and they have only faced one team ranked in the top 50 in rush offense. This is just like the last two games I chose as my POD with Wisconsin vs. Nebraska.. Nebraska facing a new test.. and Michigan facing a new test after all the hype against Michigan State. Both games I got out right victories I believe the same happens here on Saturday. |
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10-23-10 | Ohio Bobcats v. Miami RedHawks +3 | 34-13 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
Miami OH +3 (2.2 Dime Play)
Weird line in this game as I feel Miami Ohio should be the favorites. This is not the same team that went 1-11 a year ago. Zac Dysert is looking dangerous and I think he posses a direct threat to Ohio who hasn't faced an offensive passing attack like this all year. Miami Ohio will throw the ball 80% of the time and should put up points here at home. They were able to get the win last week at Central Michigan which was a huge win for this team and I think they carry that confidence over to this week. Bowling Green has a similar one dimenstional passing approach and Matt Schilz was able to throw for 277 yards but the problem for Bowling Green in that game is they could not stop Ohio from running the ball. Miami Ohio is better suited to stop the run as they are ranked 49th vs. run defense. In fact this is the best defense they have faced since Toledo. While Ohio's offense struggled early it's clicking in their last three games and that's why you see them favorites. But I'm not buying in their last three opponents had scoring defenses of 119, 109, and 113 while their total defenses were 106, 116, and 104. Now they averaged 39 pts per game during that time, but Miami Ohio ranked 69th have been tested this season by Central Mich 45th offense, Florida, Missouri 43rd, and Cinci 34th. Their defense is better than the stats say because of the tough schedule. X-factor Ohio's pass rush... It's a key factor in this game as Miami Ohio and Zac Dysert will throw the ball all day as they did last week against a Central Michigan pass defense ranked 61st after they got beat for 399 yards 3 TD 0 interceptions. Miami Ohio also forced 4 turnovers and held Central Michigan to field goals int he red zone. I think they can do that again in a tight game that will have them winning. |
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10-23-10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. Navy Midshipmen +7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
Navy +7 buy 1/2 -120(3.5 Dime EB)
This has been a match up that the last three years has been decided by a total of 10 points with Navy taking 2 of three. A few weeks ago I may have liked Notre Dame, but Navy and Dobbs finally look healthy as they rattled off two impressive wins against SMU and Wake Forest. They came from 14 down to beat SMU and that really impressed me. First of all SMU is the closest thing to Notre Dame that Navy has faced as SMU has a similar offensive attack with 28th ranked pass game vs. 70th run while Notre Dame is at 18/97. Difference is SMU's defense is a little better at 56th overall while Notre Dame at 82nd. SMU similar run stop 43rd was not able to hold Navy in check . Many think Navy can't beat Notre Dame through the air but I would not be surprised if Dobbs took some shots seeing as Notre Dame is so bad in stopping the pass. Notre Dame may rave about the run defense holding last 4 opponents to an average 79.5 yards on the ground but they faced some bad run offenses 107, 62, 103, and Stanford 23rd who ran for 166 yards. Notre Dame comes in with 18th ranked passing attack but they have faced an average 80th ranked opponent. Navy is now ranked 9th in pass defense and that bodes well for Navy who seems to be one dimensional in my opinion. Crist won't be able to do whatever he wants in this neutral site game that is closer to home for Navy. Navy in the red zone last 2 weeks are 8 for 9 with all 8 being touch downs. I think this game will be another tight game with possible OT written all over it, but in the end I think Navy has the better team and I think they pull off the win. |
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10-22-10 | South Florida Bulls v. Cincinnati Bearcats -8 | Top | 38-30 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Cincinnati -8 4.4 dime pod
There is this thought that Cincinnatti has the worst defense in the Big East and I do not agree. Statistically they have given up 366 yards per game, but let |
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10-21-10 | UCLA Bruins v. Oregon Ducks -26 | 13-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Oregon is the biggest challenge for UCLA. Unfortunately for them they are coming off 12 days rest much like themselves. I expect huge things from Thomas and James and this offense against UCDLA who is ranked 92nd against the run now facing Oregon who is ranked 1st. I
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10-18-10 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 | Top | 30-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Jaguars +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
Normally like the Titans as I think they are under rated but this is a bad match up for them on their second week in a row on the road. Jaguars are a tough beat at home just ask the Colts. They can run the ball better than the Titans and have a solid run stop unit them selves. This game is normally all about running the ball and stopping the run. Both teams do that extremely well and I say push there. Difference is QB and pass defense and both teams have bad pass defenses ranked 26th Titans and 29th Jaguars. Advantage Jaguars for being home again as playing QB on the road is not the same. Plus Garrard has been really accurate and avoiding the turnovers with 33-42 with 341 passing yards and 5 TD 1 Int in his last two games both wins. Think the Jaguars win outright like they did last year by 20 points at home. home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 match ups between these two! |
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10-17-10 | Dallas Cowboys v. Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Vikings -1 -110 (4-Dime OE play)
Vikings need this game and they seem to be the team heading in the right direction instead of the Cowboys. Despite a loss vs. the Jets it was obvious that this team is a playoff team and Favre knows this is his last opportunity to return to what was last year. At the end of the day I still trust Favre and I think the Cowboys are not done making bone headed plays yet. Penalties will hurt this team and playing in Minny is not an easy task! |
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10-17-10 | Miami Dolphins +3.5 v. Green Bay Packers | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Dolphins +100 betus (3-Dime EB)
Dolphins are still flying under the radar and their game against the Patriots was way closer than the score indicated as they out gained the Pats by 135 yards and just had special team failures. They come into this game needing a win bad and they are facing the Packers at the right time as they are pretty banged up and will be without their best player on defense. Dolphins #4 pass defense matches up well with a Packers team that likes to pass. |
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10-17-10 | Atlanta Falcons +2 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Falcons +2 -110 betus (5.5 Dime Pod)
Falcons already won on the road against the Saints and I think this is an easier trip for them going to Philly where they haven't had much success but that is about to change this year. Matt Ryan and his #2 running game should be able to move the ball against an Eagls run defense ranked #24. Eagles are banged up and Kolb starts again this tim against a Falcons #10 defense which is #2 in scoring defense. Eagles can score points, but their game changes a lot with Kolb in and Vick out. I think he'll struggle and I think the Falcons will take this game out right! |
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10-16-10 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin Badgers +4.5 | Top | 18-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Wisconsin +4.5 -110 bodog (5-Dime POD)
Wisconsin has been pointing to this game and it all starts up front. In years past Clay has been stopped by Ohio State, but I feel he can make a statement in this game at home and I feel the Wisconsin defense is being under rated. I like Wisky here today Ohio State now #1 is about to have their dreams shattered as they really have not been tested all year their defense ranked #3 and #4 against the run has faced an average offense ranked 84th. Wisconsin will be the best offense they have faced. Wisconsin dominated the game last year and although they lost 31-13 they know they should have won as they held Ohio State to 184 yards and had the ball for 42:47. Normally you see a win for that kind of domination. Again I expect both teams to be heavily on the ground and for the game to be decided by a touchdown. Wisconsin already got a gut check against Michigan State and now it's Ohio State's turn as they haven't faced anyone with a pulse yet. |
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10-16-10 | Texas Longhorns +10 v. Nebraska Huskers | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show | |
Texas +10 -110 bodog (4.4 Dime OE play 1-Dime on +300 ML)
This line is a little crazy for me as Texas defense has been fantastic against everyone else, and this game reminds me a bunch of last weeks MIchigan STate vs. Michigan game. First year dual threat QB Denard Robinson going up against an actual defense for the first time at home. Instead we have two rivals going up wiht Texas defense that is still stacked and can get the ball faster than any of the other opponents that Nebraska has faced. Texas ranked 20th vs. the run while Nebraska is 2nd running the ball same situation we had a week ago with Michigan/Mich St. Note Nebraska has faced a defense ranked 99th vs. the run this year that's on average. Now they face a team that can actually get into the back field and cause pressure and mistakes. Texas is 9th in the nation in sacks and second in tackles for loss. This spells trouble for Taylor Martinez who is not out there to throw the ball and if he does interceptions and turnovers will happen. Nebraska has made mistakest his year and have been lucky. They have fumbled 18 or 19 times and only lost 7 of those. Martinez will throw some interceptions against a talented Texas secondary because Texas is not going to watch him roll up 300 yards on them. Texas has the extra week of preparation which is trouble for Nebraska. Look for Texas to take shots early on Nebraska and I think the running game gets some push up front that is where Nebraska is beatable. Both teams different from the Big 12 Championship game a year ago, but it's not a 10 point spread! |
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10-16-10 | Maryland Terrapins +14.5 v. Clemson Tigers | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Maryland +14.5 -110 bodog (2.5 Dime play)
Clemson does not deserve to be two TD favorites the way they have played this year. They lost on the road a year ago to Maryland who has been playing a lot better this year than in years past. Clemson who loves to hand their opponents the ball time and time again play Maryland who loves to take especially when a team is driving which is the reason they are only giving up 18 points per game yet they are under dogs by 14? I think this is an error early on the day that Maryland will exploit. Maryland can get their running game going with Davin Meggett and Da |
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10-15-10 | Cincinnati v. Louisville Cardinals +3 | 35-27 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Louisville +3 -115 (3.5 Dime Oddsline Error)
Huge weekend ahead and it starts tonight. The home dog has not been cashing during the week, but a week ago it did with Rutgers over Uconn and I think it does again tonight. Cincinnati looked good a week ago, but this was against Miami Ohio now they |
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10-14-10 | South Florida Bulls v. West Virginia Mountaineers -10 | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
West Virginia -10 -110 (3.3 Dime OE play)
We have been getting beat badly during the week on home dogs. A trend that usually cashes our ticket. That |
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10-13-10 | Central Florida v. Marshall +6 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Marshal +6 -110 (4.4 Dime) Marshall +200 (1-Dimes) BODOG
This is a huge game for Marshall if they want to go bowling this year. I believe this team is drastically under rated and it'll show tonight against one of the favorites in the C-USA to win in UCF. Not only does Marshall have 4 extra days to prepare, but they are home where they play significantly better football including their 3 point loss to West Virginia a team that has a better defense than these hyped up Knights. Now the Knights are one dimensional they runt he ball 65.5% of the time so I think there is a case for Marshall to keep this one in reach and win it in the end. Look for DE Vin Curry and LB Mario Harvey (11 tackles) in last years 1 point loss to give freshmen QB Godfrey plenty of problems. Head Coach of Marshall John |
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10-10-10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | 24-21 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
Bengals -6.5 -110 (4-Dime Early Bird Special)
The Bucs who are 2-2 got whooped by a similar physical team in the Steelers two weeks ago and then they went on a bye which was a good thing, but now they face another similar hard hitting team in the Bengals. The Bengals are a completely different team on the road, but at home they are good. They beat the Ravens 15-10 and now have the #6 overall total defense. I think they stop the Bucs big time here and it'll be a good opportunity for the Bengals to get their running game going against #28th ranked run defense.. I expect the Bengals to go up 10-14 and easily be able to run the clock out against the Bucs. Freeman will make some mistakes against this under rated secondary. |
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10-10-10 | St. Louis Rams v. Detroit Lions -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
Lions -3 -110 betonline (5.5 Dime POD)
Love the Lions in this spot despite being 0-4 they have played three of their four games on the road and all 4 have been against teams that arguably look playoff bound in the Eagles, Vikings, Bears and Packers. They didn't get blown out in either of these games and I think back home to play the Rams is a good thing. Rams are 2-2, but they have played Cardinals(not the same), Oakland, Redskins, and the Seahawks. They have the 21st pass defense while the Lions continue to look strong in the passing game ranked #7, but expect the Lions to take advantage of the weak run defense the Rams have. On defense the Lions have held their own I've seen them make goal line stops against the Bears and I was impressed. I don't think Stephen Jackson who terrorized this team a year ago will do it again he seems to be injured still or has lost a step as he's averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. With Suh and the acquisition of Vanden Bosch have really given this team a new look on defense. The ranks are not that great, but considering who they have played I think it's still quite impressive. |
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10-09-10 | Mississippi State -5 v. Houston | 47-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show | |
Miss State -5 (3.3 Dime POD)
Houston may have the bye week here for extra preparation, but Miss St had a cupcake last week and although coaches will tell you that they don |
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10-09-10 | Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5 v. North Texas Mean Green | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 0 m | Show | |
Arkansas St -2.5 -110 betus (4-Dime OE play)
This is a huge situational play as North Texas is beat up. Just how beat up? Let's start up front where they are on their third string center and 4th string QB. QB Chase Baine who has never thrown a pass in a college game will start. Along with those issues they have lost a total of 12 starters which has led to turnovers and sloppy play including a record 15 penalties last week. One bright spot has been Lance Dunbar who ran for 141 yards, but he's doing it against poor run defenses an average 81st rush defense is what they have faced. Now Arkansas State struggles with stopping the run, but when you know you can load up the box and you have the experience of facing Auburn, Troy, and Louisville's running attacks 8th, 44th, and 30th ranked you should be able to hold your own. Standing in Dunbar's way will be pre-season Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Bryan Hall at DT and MLB Javon McKinnon coming off 16 tackles from a week ago. On the other side Arkansas State has put up at least 24 points in all five of their games and that's against some pretty good competition as they have faced an average 61st defense and have the #33rd ranked total offense. North Texas will have issues and when you are ranked 81st in scoring defense and 108th in scoring offense you probably aren't winning many games. North Texas has to keep this game low, but I don't think they'll be able to as QB Ryan Aplin threw for a career high three TD's vs. Louisville ranked 37th in pass defense and seems to get better each week. Arkansas St is balanced too as RB Sirgregory Thornton is averaging 7 yards per carry and was considered on of the top backs out of Tennessee out of high school. Look out for WR Dwayne Frampton ranked top 10 in Sun Belt in all purpose yards. Oh Arkansas State has beaten North Texas 5 straight times. |
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10-09-10 | Texas A&M v. Arkansas -5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State +4.5 (5-Dime POD)
Michigan is getting the praises every where and Denard Robinson can do no wrong thus far this season, but hold on have they even played a defense that can stop anyone? Indiana is one of the worst out there yet when they needed to get a stop when Michigan had the ball up a TD they did. Now they have faced a defense with an average rank all around over 90th. Michigan State comes in with the best all around linebacker Greg Jones and all American candidate Eric Gordon and sure CB tackler Chris Rucke in hand to stop Denard. I |
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10-09-10 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
Michigan State +4.5 (5-Dime POD)
Michigan is getting the praises every where and Denard Robinson can do no wrong thus far this season, but hold on have they even played a defense that can stop anyone? Indiana is one of the worst out there yet when they needed to get a stop when Michigan had the ball up a TD they did. Now they have faced a defense with an average rank all around over 90th. Michigan State comes in with the best all around linebacker Greg Jones and all American candidate Eric Gordon and sure CB tackler Chris Rucke in hand to stop Denard. I |
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10-09-10 | Indiana +23 v. Ohio State | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
Indiana +22.5 -110 5dimes (3.3 Dime play)
Indiana has a real chance to do some damage and make a huge upset against an Ohio State team that looks beatable. Their secondary is beat up with three injuries and some starter playing through injuries. That's a total of 5 players 3 not playin in Moeller, Barnnett and Evege, and Torrence and Chekwa who are not 100%. Add in that Pryor who is of similar dynamic to Denard Robinson has a nagging thigh injury. Will he be able to take off like he did a week ago? Ben Chapel is just to good and this passing offense is too good not to put up enough points to stay in this one. Ohio State is ranked 18th in pass defense, but I mentioned the injuries and they haven't faced a team that can pass yet so this is a great opportunity for Indiana and I think they'll take advantage of it. |
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10-08-10 | Connecticut Huskies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Rutgers +5.5 (3.3 Dime play)
Rutgers nearly beat a UNC team at home and only lost by three granted UNC has been beat up but based on how they play that game was more impressive than many think. Rutgers still can stop the run and I think Toddman and the Huskies run offense will have some issues trying to get their offense going in New Jersey tonight. It will be a close low scoring game. Take the home dog in this situation. |
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10-07-10 | Nebraska v. Kansas State +12 | Top | 48-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Kansas St +12 -110 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
This is the biggest Kansas State game in quite some time and it has all the recipes for a low scoring game. I'm going with the home dog here.. I think there is still much much more to see from Nebraska before they are ranked #7. Remember they have a rookie back their in Martinez at QB that is the majority of their offense with 496 yards rushing alone. Martinez is prone to throw interceptions and fumble the ball and going up against a Kansas State defense at home that is ranked #13 against the pass this should be a run first offense for Nebraska shortening the game. Nebraska has fumbled the ball 16 times already this season with 7 of them being lost to opponent. Odds would tell you against the best defense they've faced all year in the first true road game that they would have some mistakes again. Nebraska ranked #14 in total offense has faced an average 85 total defense with South Dakota an D1 AA team not being factored in those statistics and they held them to 17 points. Kansas State on the offense side figures to do the same thing on offense run the ball. Though they have experience behind center in Sr. Coffman this is a run first team with their Sr. star Daniel Thomas who had 19 carries and 99 yards last year vs. a better Nebraska run stop unit. This year's Nebraska team has given up 2 100 yard runners already and those came against Western Kentucky and South Dakota. People are saying Nebraska has the better run stop unit with #53 rank but they have faced an average #71 run offense while Kstate ranked 102nd have faced an average 36th rushing attack. I think it's closer than people think and with Nebraska getting most of their rushing offense from the rookie QB I think Kansas State with DAniel Thomas has the better running game. He's got 628 yards and 6 TD's this year and I expect him to get 30+ carries tonight which again will shorten the game. If Kansas State scores first we cover it's imperative that they get off to a strong start so that they don't have to turn to a passing game vs. arguably the best secondary from Nebraska. Again Kansas State is tested facing some good secondaries thus far and that's partially the reason for their 103rd passing rank also they sure do run a lot. I believe Snyder pulls out all the plays tonight and I would not be surprised if he takes some shots early so Nebraska doesn't load the box. Special teams is pretty much even. Nebraska has the better kicker and Kansas State has the better return man with William Powell returning 32 yards per return. Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Knasas State and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 as favorites more than 10.5 points. |
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10-06-10 | Ala Birmingham +12 v. Central Florida | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
UAB +13 -110 Sportsbook3.3 Dime Play)
Both of these teams are quite similar in the fact that they are coming off rough losses as UCF lost at Kansas State and UAB lost in double OT to Tennessee. I'm more impressed by UAB and I think this is an error UAB has faced 4 FBS schools while UCF played South Dakota in their first game. UAB might be the best offense that UCF has faced yet as they are ranked 28th overall in the nation, but have started to get it done big time with their dual threat QB situation with pocket passer Bryan Ellis over 700 yards passing the last two weeks and David Isabelle who can run it. Now this also may be the best defense UAB has faced, but I think Tennessee's D still has plenty of athletes and UAB ran all over them putting up 544 total yards. Just ask LSU if Tenn has a decent defense. But again that's still not why I'm picking UAB. UAB's defense is under rated as their ranks tell you otherwise.. Their weakness is in pass defense 107th, but they have faced some pretty good passing teams including Troy ranked #6. for an average 42nd rank. UCF really struggles passing the game and if UCF runs the ball a lot UAB has the 46th ranked rush defense. UCF has gone back and forth at the most critical position on the field QB. They will have their hands full with UAB defense that is under rated full of speed and athleticism as they held Tennessee to just 245 total yards and 42 rushing yards. Head Coach George O'Leary is saying he'll play both freshman Jeff Godfrey and junior Rob Calabrese. Godfrey as a starter had jsut 222 yards and completed only 23 of 42 passes. The strength of UCF is defense for sure and they have looked good all year long keeping them in games.. But that does not equal beating a team by two TD's which is what they have to do today against UAB. I don't see it happening considering the way UAB's offense is clicking and their win against Troy looks that much better after Troy's defense dominated a pretty good MTSU team last night on the road. This team has always put up good offensive numbers against Central Florida in the last two years they have put up 911 yards combined. |
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10-05-10 | Troy v. Middle Tenn State -3 | Top | 42-13 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Middle Tenn -3 -120 buy
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10-04-10 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins +1.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Dolphins pk -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like the Dolphins here as they have shown that they are not only about the wild cat. The Patriots have struggled in Miami and the Dolphins have played well on MOnday nights here. Patriots offense looks as good as any, but their defense is as bad as any and now they start a rookie at CB in Kyle Arrington a guy in his second year out of Hofstra, a school that doens't even have a football program any longer. They are already #28 against the pass this team gave up 30 points to the Bills. Dolphins are bitter about the loss the the Jets and the Patriots don't have the defense to win this game.. I think the Dolphins are capable of coming up with some stops considering Brady and the Patriots offense is one dimensional. I'll go with the home team with the better defense, and more balanced offensive attack every day of the week. This line has been moving towards the dolphins all week despite only 33% of the money coming in on them. |
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10-03-10 | Chicago Bears v. New York Giants -3 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Giants -3 -120 buy 1/2 (4-Dime LNF)
Public perspective this line does not make sense given how poor the Giants have played and how good the Bears have looked... But lets get one thing straight the Bears are playing over there heads. I loved them on Monday night and they were very lucky to get that 3 point win after the Packers basically handed them the game with their franchise record in penalties and dropped interceptions. Cutler threw 2 or 3 interceptions that did not count because of penalties. Giants have some ball hawking safeties in Rolle and Phillips that should make life difficult for Cutler who again has a great arm, but after watching him MOnday night it's obvious he is just not getting it yet. I expect him to throw 2 interceptions tonight and for the Giants passing game to get going as the Bears are 28th vs. the pass. Forget trying to run on these guys they have arguably the best trio of linebackers and are solid up front with Peppers up front. However, Eli should shake it all off and have a great game. Giants need this game and they have an extra day to prepare for the 3-0 Bears who will go down giving the entire NFC at least 1 loss. |
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10-03-10 | Washington Redskins +6 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Redskins +6 -110 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
Redskins were clearly looking ahead after getting beat by the Rams last week, but that's an improved Rams team to be quite honest. Redskins however are going to be fighting for their QB on Sunday. All the rave on Vick is legit he looks like a complete QB thus far, but I need to see more as he just went up against #30 and #29 defenses. This is a division game that is always played close. I don't see this game being warranted 6 points to either team. Redskins led with 11 minutes to go last year in Philly 24-16 before McNabb brought his team back. McNabb now on the Skins and starting to get really comfortable as the REdskins are #11 in total offense which is miles from where they were a year ago. Their #32 defense is not as bad as it looks as they have faced two top 5 offenses in Dallas and Houston. Washington 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and Philly looked bad against a good opponent at home the last time against the Packers. |
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10-03-10 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Browns +3 -110 bodog (3.3 Dime play)
The Browns have been playing good defense and have caught themselves in close games. Now they get Jake Delhomme who believe it or not gives them more balance and a little bit of a punch on offense. Peyton Hillis ran for over 100 on the Ravens, and now the Bengals will have to defend both. I like the way the Browns are playing meanwhile Carson Palmer looks like he's injured or something.. The books are asking you to jump on the Bengals here and with Carson not completing 60% of his passes I can't do it. I think the Browns will have an excellent shot at home to win this game outright as they held this team on the road to 16 points. Look for the Browns to have a chance to win this outright. |
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10-02-10 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish v. Boston College Eagles +3 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
Boston College +3 -110 bodog (5-Dime PLAY)
If you have followed me you know how much of a believer I am in fading Notre Dame. We have been on all three of their losses ATS and I believe this will be the third. Only 28% is on Boston College and I'm loving it because I guess nobody has been watching this Notre Dame team close enough. Sure the passing game has clicked, but this defense is still a mess and Kelly was never the type of coach that was going to improve a defensive mess left by Charlie Weis. Last week we were disapointed in BC against Vtech as we had them, and a closer look shows multiple chances for Boston to have scored TD's. It was 3 turnovers and poor clock management before half time that did not get them into the endzone. The defense was solid once again and this is a strong team up front that will stop Armando Allen without a blink. With that said Crist is going to pass, but a one dimensional Notre Dame team facing the best defense that reminds me a lot of Stanford all year. The atmosphere is going to be crazy in Boston a night game in front 45,000 screaming fans. Notre Dame will have all kinds of issues with the BC offensive line that was able to get 111 yards on 19 carries for Montel Harris vs. a Virginia Tech front that is playing out of it's mind right now that was the one bright spot for the Eagles that will get carried over. BC has elected to bench Shinske which is a good thing.. I think BC surprises ND early with some play action. Notre Dame is giving up 190 yards per game on the ground and with this huge O-line BC should finally be able to find the endzone. Again the key is can BC stop the passing game and I say yes. Notre Dame has not faced good passing defense which has led to the early success of Crist. The best one they faced was Stanford last weekend and although Crist through for over 304 yards against the nations 11th ranked pass defense he got most of that in garbage time and he did throw an interception. The other three teams are ranked 96th, 104th, and 61st in pass defense respectfully. Believe it or not BC will have an offense this week with a new QB and it'll be a game dominated by time of possession for the Eagles. |
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10-02-10 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Toledo | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
Wyoming +4.5 -110 5DIMES (4-DIMES)
Wyoming plays TCU and Utah next making this game against an over achieving Toledo team a MUST WIN! Now that does not mean they will win, but Toledo can over look this game as they are off to a 3-1 start and that will be a mistake. Wyoming is playing good football I mean they have had to face an average ranked #12 defense. Toledo is weak in the secondary and I think QB Samuels can have a good day. He's got 68.2% pass efficiency despite throwing just 4TD and 4INT he has faced some of the best secondaries in the nation including Air Force, Texas and Boise State. On defense Wyoming held Airforce team averaging 41.3 ppg to only 20 points and they led 14-7 through 3 quarters. Toledo will have their home opener spoiled. Despite getting by with victories on the road against PUrdue and two MAC teams Toledo has turned the ball over 8 times luckily they have taken the ball 12 times, but not in this game. Wyoming is a tough bunch and I feel they get this game after facing a tough schedule to start the year. |
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10-02-10 | Tulsa v. Memphis +9.5 | 48-7 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Memphis +10 -120 buy 1/2 point 5dimes (3-Dime play)
Memphis beat a solid Middle Tenn team and took UTEP to the wire on the road looking like a much better team the past two weeks. LB Jarmon Huges and the front defensive line have looked really good. This team is hard hitting and a very physical team that is going to give Tulsa some issues playing at home. They are coached by Larry Porter and several other coaches with SEC background giving them a physical and passionate team full of energy. The last two games has seen their defense hold two top 40 offensive teams to under 30 points. They held UTEP who had been averaging 496 yards to 288 yards and that counts their 95 yard drive late. Memphis is also top 25 in interceptions and Kinne is prone to that kind of mistake with 5 interceptions in the two losses. I just think Memphis will have a good game on offense facing a defense that ranked last in pass defense and their offense is ranked #5 but Tulsa has only faced a 104th ranked defense on average. Memphis may be the best defense they face. |
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10-02-10 | Tennessee v. LSU -16.5 | 14-16 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
LSU -16.5 -110 bodog (3.3 Dime OE)
I like the Tigers a lot despite being heavily favored and I think Vegas may have caught this mistake with more public on Tennessee the line has moved two points from opening at -14.5. For one the field will be tilted for Tennesse all day with awful field position. You either kick it to Patrick Peterson and watch him make plays or you kick it out of bound and give LSU good field position. Why do I bring this up? Well LSU's defense is stout and I think they force Tenn into lots of third downs where they are an embarrassing 11 for 48 this year at 18.97% that's worse in the nation. LSU is among the best on defense allowing opponents to convert just 27.6% of the time.. Is this going to magically change? I think not. Okay so you want to play the LSU can't pass game? Okay you try passing if you are LSU against these pass defenses. West Virginia 24th, Vanderbilt 35th, North Carolina 4th, Miss State 42nd. Tenn is ranked 73rd and they have not really faced good passing offenses with 44, 90 and 33. I think LSU's offense comes alive this week at home and they finally get the passing game going.. With rumors of Patrick Peterson getting some offensive touches I think LSU rolls easy to a 30+ point win. This is not the same Volunteer team they proved that to me at home when I had them at +12 vs. Oregon and they were up early 13-3 only to get waxed and play terrible pass coverage vs. Oregon in the second half giving up 48 points. |
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10-02-10 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Indiana +10.5 -110 Bodog (5.5 POD) Indiana +330 (1.5 Dime Bonus)
81% of the public is backing a Michigan team favored by double digits on the road in conference that has proven WHAT? Okay they have the #1 offense as of right now in the land I'll give them that, but they have gotten that done against an average 92nd ranked defense. Indiana is playing decent on O but that's not where they'll win this game. More on the offense of Michigan that week by week gets weaker in my opinion as there is more and more tape on them. Denard Robinson injured his knee and he'll play but not sure how healthy he'll be. This could be a look ahead game for Michigan as they face Michigan State next week. This could be a huge mistake for them as the Wolverine defense has not been able to stop ANYONE on offense. I remind you they started 4-0 last year and dropped 7 of their last 8 games. Indiana has been pointing to this game since last year. With the bulk of their offense returning from the team that lost 33 to 36 on the road they are ready. Ben Chapel is mighty capable of thowing against a Michigan defense that gave up 200+ pass yards to CT, Umass, and Bowling Green three teams that are not known for their air attack. Chapel has 9 TD's 0 Int's and 72.4% pass completion. This is going to be a shoot out and don't forget about their running back Willis as he racked up 152 yards on 16 carries a year ago. Chapel's targets in Celcher, Turner and Doss will give the Wolverines tons of issues early on Saturday and they won't be ready. Not to mention Michigan's special teams has been dreadful as they are among the worst in the nation in punt returns and they are still looking for a kicker. This could be huge in a shoot out game if Indiana can force some 3rd and longs. |
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10-02-10 | Florida State v. Virginia +6.5 | 34-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Virginia +7 (2.2 Dimes)
Yes I'm fading another heavy public heavy team in Florida State. The public loves State 71% are on the road team and the line opened at -7 and has dropped to -6.5 in some places as Vegas wants more and more action on these guys. I'm not this dumb.. and if you are reading this you are fortunate too, because Virginia is solid on defense they held USC on the road to just 17 points and this is a veteran secondary that won't allow Ponder to expose and run up the score. Top 15 NFL draft pick Dowling at CB will lock down one side of the field and DE Cam Johnson who has 3.5 sacks will coss some pressure on a Florida St team that is struggling to protect their QB. Ponder has dinked and dunked with just 6.7 yards per completion. They have a 28th ranked offense sure.. but who have they faced? An average 104th ranked defense. Florida State's secondary might surprisingly get exposed despite Virginia having a solid run game with Perry Jones and Keith Payne who both are averaging over 6 yards per carry and combined for 135 yards vs. USC. The secondary features 4 new starters for FSU. Bottom line both teams will try to chew up clock giving us the advantage against the spread. Too many points for a Florida State team that is getting two much respect after beating two bad teams in BYU and Wake Forest.. BYU lost again last night against Utah State getting crushed. |
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10-02-10 | Miami (Florida) v. Clemson +3 | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Clemson +3.5 -110 bodog (4-Dimes)
I love this game early as Clemson is getting no respect against an over rated Miami team. Not much separates these two teams in my opinion. The rankings show Clemson's D down, but they have faced an average 36th ranked offense as opposed to MIami that has faced 65th. At home this team is going to be fired up on defense with an extra 5 days to prepare I think this is going to be a hard hitting low scoring game. Clemson is as good as it gets on the defensive line with arguably the best defensive line in the ACC and they'll face an average offensive line from Miami. Bowers and Branch on the outside will create pressure while DT Jarvis Jenkins returns at full strength. Harris forcing throws under pressure is never a good thing and when you have ball hawking safeties like DeAndre McDaniel and Rashard Hall back there you are in good shape. Miami's offense is ranked 96th in the country and it doesn't get easier facing this defense. Miami's defense on the other hand has been dominant, but against who? Pitt has struggled against everyone this year so holding them to 3 points although really impressive would not be the same on the road at Clemson. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper are lighting up the stat sheet. Against Auburn ranked 28th vs. the run Ellington rushed for 140 on 22 carries while Harper added 44. Both are capable receivers too with a combined 7 receptions for 96 yards in the hard fought loss on the road to Auburn. Kyle Parker is under rated and he's got targets along with emerging TE Dwayne Allen who will have a big game when Miami LB turn attention to the talented backs. Again not much separates these teams and Miami is favored because they are Miami.. the public is jumping on them and the line is going the other way. They are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 as favorites while Clemson is 19-7 in their last 26 as under dogs and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in conference play. |
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10-01-10 | BYU v. Utah State +4.5 | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Utah St +4.5 BODOG -110 (4.4 Dime pod)
I like Utah State in this spot at home against an equally bad team. I think Utah State has actually looked better on the offensive side of the ball with QB Diondre Borel a dual threat QB. He is the type of QB BYU has had issues with this season. Utah State is not getting respect at home because BYU is still BYU in the eyes of many including the public that is betting them 65% and this line opened at +6, but the smart money is coming in on Utah State moving this line to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Overall Utah State's O is ranked 51st in total offense and that's against an average 67th ranked opponent. BYU is ranked 82nd against an average 59th ranked defense. Utah State was able to hang with Oklahoma and they did their best through the first half vs. Fresno that had them in a position to win, but everything changed after that. This game is huge for both teams as a loss likely means no playoffs with a tough road ahead. Right now BYU can't do anything and that includes getting a pass rush which has been the main issue that has held back Borel and the Utah State offense. I expect them to be able to move the ball on BYU as the Cougars suffered two devastating injuries making this defense that ranks 102nd in the land that much worse. linebacker Jameson Frazier has a broken thumb and their top nose tackle Romney Fuga tore up his knee. This should give Utah State some room to be more balanced. BYU Offense has struggled and Utah State's D has gotten better and has not played to it's potential. At home on national TV on ESPN look for first year starter Jake Heaps and the young offense to have plenty of problems. |
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09-30-10 | Texas A&M +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
TX A&M +3 -110 betonline (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the Aggies in this spot. Not only has the line gone from +3.5 to +3 with just 23% of the public backing them, but they are facing a highly over rated Oklahoma St squad that not many know about. Many are raving about Kendal Hunter and his 157.7 yards per game average and that is all justified he is one of the returners from last years team that was solid, but a new QB 26 year old Brandon Weeden who is lighting up the scoreboard is up for a rude awakening. This is a team that lost 4 starters on the offensive line and their #1 ranked offense is partially due to the the three teams they have faced having total defense ranks of 117, 109 and 113. They are getting way too much hype in my opinion and the Aggies are on revenge in this spot too. That's not all.. and they are about to see an actual pass rush featuring last years leader in sacks Von Miller.. and he's backed by a rookie you will all be hearing about soon in Damone Moore. Cowboys struggled in a couple of goal line situations vs. Tulsa and Troy and that is an indication that this team is not all mighty. The Cowboy defense will have 9 new starters on defense it's the reason they are #78 in the nation in total defense to start the year. Jerrod Johnson should have a bounce back game after the bye week and I trust he will have a big game. He's got a balanced attack with Christine Michael who has three straight games of rushing for 100+ yards. But the new thing with the Aggies is the defense. Tim DeRuyter takes over the defense with a very aggresive style that is going to give first year QB Brandon Weeden some issues especially with 4 new starters up front. A&M I believe will be able to shut down Kendall Hunter and that should = a win for them. They are allowing just 2.2 yards per carry and are #10 in total defense. Despite playing non-quality opponents I am still impressed with an improved defense that should have the Aggies in talks of winning the Big 12 South. |
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09-27-10 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Bears +3 @+100 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
Another home dog on Monday night and the public is loving the early hype that surrounds the Packers, but the Bears might have something to say about it. The line opened at +3.5 for the Bears and with just 25% of the public on them the line has moved to +3. Bodog and a couple other books has this at +100. I think the Bears defense is legit. They have an iffy secondary, but make up for it against a west coast offense like the Packers with arguably the three best linebackers a team has with Urlacher/Briggs, and Tinoisamoa. The addition of Julius Peppers shows here tonight. Offensively I think Cutler and the Bears can take advantage of the Packers secondary like the Eagles started to late in that game. While the OL needs a little work they played better in that second half vs. Dallas and they face anotehr 3-4 defense something they are used to through the first two weeks of facing the Cowboys who play the 3-4. I like what Martz has done for Cutler early this season and the win at Dallas looks real considering the Cowboys went down to Houston and held the hot Texans to 13 points. Chicago only lost by 6 and 7 points last year, but this is an improved offense and defense. The defense last year held Rodgers under 200 yards passing in both games. I'm not sure that happens here tonight, but I still think the Bears win by a field goal at Soldier Field. |
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09-26-10 | New York Jets +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Jets +3 -120 buy 1/2 BETONLINE (4-Dime play)
Well this is going to be a tough game on Sunday night with the Jets playing in 80 degree heat with 80 degree humidity. I think this game will be a higher scoring game than many realize. Two things to note. The Jets offense was not as good as it looked last week considering Patriots gave up 30 to the Bills today and the Dolphins defense is definitely not nearly as good as they have looked as the Vikings continue to struggle. I think the Jets are finally going to get their running game going big time here tonight and expect some nice throws from Sanchez. I think the Jets losing two games to the Dolphins in which they should have won in my opinion will come out with some real enthusiasm. Forget the Braylon Edwards story it has nothing to do with this game. I think Cromarte matches up well against Brandon Marshall who has been the Dolphins only offense early here. Cromarte held Marshall to 8 receptions and less than 80 yards receiving in the two games a year ago. |
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09-26-10 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
49ers -3 +100 BETONLINE (3-Dime play)
Love this play not only does the line not make sense, because the niners are 0-2 coming off a Monday night heart breaker, but they travel to Kansas City one of the tougher spots to play and they are playing a 2-0 team yet they are favored?? What's going on here? Well for one Matt Cassell can not throw the ball in this offense. He's got just 117yds/game while 49ers have 244.5. Alex Smith looked impressive throwing with and against the wind on Monday night vs. a very good Saints defense, but what impresses me more is this defense. They are allowing jsut 264 yards 63.5 rushing and this is just a nightmare match up for the Chiefs. Expect Willis to have 15 tackles and the Niners will force Cassel to have to throw as they clime to a 14-0 early lead. If Cassell has a big game which I don't think he will we will take our losses. |
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09-26-10 | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Falcons +3 -105 BETONLINE (3.5 Dime Play)
They need to write a book about Super Bowl Champs coming back the next year and having issues. There is a bullseye on the Saints back and they are struggling through their first two games and now they play a Falcons team that always gives them issues and they do it after getting hit hard by the 49ers on Monday night. Saints short on preparation without Reggie Bush should have some issues here today. Falcons should be able to expose a secondary that the Niners looked good on. I just don't think the line that opened up at +4.5 and moved to +3 and even going south of that before game time possibly makes alot of sense. Public should love the Saints, but we are smarter than that and will take the FAlcons in a close one. |
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09-26-10 | Tennessee +3 v. New York Giants | Top | 29-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
Titans +3 -110 (5.5 Dime POD) BETONLINE
I love the Titans to win out right here. The Giants are having locker room isuses with Jacobs and Rolle opening their mouth. They are also banged up and I expect Vince Young to have a huge bounce back type game. I thought last week was good for Vince Young and now he's poised to take over and lead his team. Young as a rookie threw for 249 yards and rushed for 69 yards vs. the Giants.. That was a better Giants defense and he didn't have the best running back in the game by his side in Chris Johnson. The Steelers contained Johnson last week but I expect a huge game from CJ here today and the Giants will have their own issue moving the ball as Ten is allowing just 85 passing yards per game. Ya that was against Pit/Oak, but still NFL offenses and I'm impressed. Giants Ahmad Bradshaw has talent, but is more of a screen/third down back in my opinion. TN is solid against the run too and they finished 09 winning 3 of their final 4 road games. They are 4-0 straight up and ATS in their last 4 vs. the Giants and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 as a dog |
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09-25-10 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Mississippi | 38-55 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Fresno +2 -110 5DIMES (3.3 Dime play)
I like Fresno here they have made their point early this season that they are a play in the . They have a veteran led team and they play an Ole Miss team that is in shambles. Jerem Massoli has not been himself and I don't think he'll ever reclaim what he was at Oregon again. Ryan Colburn the veteran QB for Fresno has completed 70% of his passes and that's really not why I like Fresno here. They lead the nation in sacks with 10 and though they played Utah State and Cinci they have always stepped up big in non-conference games against the big boys and rarely get blown out. I think that is the indication of this line and the movement here. Ole Miss has turned the ball over 7 times in three games and lost to Jax St and Vanderbilt. Fresno will get after Massoli and force some turnovers and AJ Ellis who came with 165 yards last week vs. a Utah State team that hung with Oklahoma, will give Fresno a balanced attack. |
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09-25-10 | Stanford -4.5 v. Notre Dame | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Stanford -4 -120 buy 1/2 (3.5 Dime OE play)
Stanford shut out UCLA and dominated Wake 68-24. It's the defense that is making me salivate at this line against a Notre Dame team that I love love fading and have done so in winning fashion twice this year. Notre Dame just 17-35 in their last 52 home games ATS. They are an over rated bunch sure they can pass the ball, but they are facing their stiffest test on Saturday vs. Stanford. Andrew Luck is a dual threat QB that throws darts all over the field behind an OL that has allowed 1 sack and supports a running game that seems to be hitting stride just fine without Toby Gerhart. This is another nightmare match up for the Irish defense that is just not very good. This is the best QB the Irish have faced so far. This OL supported 5.8 ypc a year ago against the Irish , but that's not what I'm here to talk about. It's the Stanford defense that is making strides moving to a 3-4 defense this should give Crist some problems. LB Chase Thomas is a force since moving from DE to LB recording 3.5 sacks. They are 6th in the nation in total D 227.7ypg and are #1 in pass defense no misprint. Though Notre Dame is the best offense they have seen other teams still were expected to do more including Wake Forest who had 7 points before Stanford sent in the subs in a 68-24 rout. Last year STanford won at home by just 7 and Brandon Tate killed them with 10 receptions 201 yds and 3 TD this year there is no Clausen and no Tate both in the NFL. Crist has looked good, but how good against STanford team that is now +1.67 in TO margin so far and he is playing behind a yougn inexperience OL in my opinion. Crist will score, but Stanford wins by 10+ points. |
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09-25-10 | Alabama v. Arkansas +7.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Arkansas +7.5 -120 @ 5DIMES (2.5 Dime OE play)
This is purely strength vs. weakness if Alabama have any. Well they do and Ryan Mallet takes advantage and revenge in his worst game last year vs. Alabama. He was cool under pressure last week against Georgia, and Alabama is breaking in three newbies in the secondary that has dominated early, but haven't faced a real passing game. Though Duke likes to throw they have an inexperienced QB and same goes with Penn State. Alabama has also had some tackling issues and their run defense is giving up more than 40 yards more on the ground early this season. Arkansas meanwhile is surprisingly averaing 8.7 tackles for loss and 4 sacks per game. They even held Georgia at home to 10 points until 10 min left in the 4th quarter. Their offensive line neutralized a strong Georgia pass rush and Alabama is 112th int he nation with just 2 sacks so far. Arkansas 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home don't be surprised if they pull out an upset. |
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09-25-10 | Virginia Tech v. Boston Coll +4.5 | 19-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Boston College +4 (2.2 Dime Early Bird)
Virginia Tech has been sloppy and they lost to James Madison after losing to Boise State to open up the season. now they go away from the MId -Atlantic into a hostile environment in an early battle with BC. Tech just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 @BC where the Eagles play defense. It's defense and running the ball two ingredients for home dogs to cover. Tyrod Taylor will have his hands full with two terrific sideline to sideline LB's in Herzlich and Kuechly who has 21 tackles in 2 games. Boston College also has an advantage of having an extra week of preparation here. the running game should improve with Montel Harris and one of the largest Offensive lines in the country anchored by LT Anthony Costanzo. I just think Virginia Tech does not have the experience inside to deal with this size which will allow BC to keep the ball for long periods of time and really shorten this game which is what they want to do. Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams injured again and it's not much of a lose the way Evans and Wilson have played, but Evans has 2 fumbles in 2 weeks and that could be a huge difference in a hostile environment. All the pressure is on Vtech and BC can play lose as dogs. Shinskie had a nightmare game vs. Vtech last year, but he's home and Boston won't ask him to do much but his Chris Pantale the TE over the middle and they have size at WR that can stretch the field to loosen up the running game. |
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09-25-10 | N Carolina St +8.5 v. Georgia Tech | 45-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
NC St +8 -110 5DIMES (3.3 Dime EB play)
NC State has had an extra two days to prepare for Georgia Tech's offense that really hasn't looked sharp until the second half against North Carolina a week ago. The reason is clear as this team lost Dwyer and only return two starters along the offensive line, one of which is now 2nd string. Either way Tech will be a handful to prepare for, for the Wolfpack that has gotten off to a surprising start. Problem also will be on a very weak Tech defense that also has many changes they have gone from a 4-3 to a 3-4. They face Russell Wilson a dual threat QB that should give them some issues. They faced two subpar pocket passers the first two weeks in Yates and Webb now Wilson is a challenge. NC State has stuffed the run the first two weeks holding Cinci to 2.4 ypc and UCF 2.8ypc, but both teams do not feature a running game like Georgia Tech. NC State has three talented linebackers that should help here with Audie Cole and Terrell Manning anchoring. NC State's strength on offense is it's offensive line that averaged 310 lbs and 6'3 which should give Tech a lot of issues and Wilson plenty of time to escape the pocket and make throws on the run like he likes to do. Yates/Webb through for 388 yards on 36-53 while throwing just 1 INT. Wilson should beat that. Tech is just 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record while NC State 23-10-1 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog. |
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09-25-10 | Central Mich v. Northwestern -6.5 | Top | 25-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Northwestern -6.5 -110 5 Dimes (4.4 Dime POD)
I believe the rebuilding of the Chipewas is not this close under their new coach as they have looked good early, but to be honest they haven't even faced a QB yet playing against Hampton, Eastern Michigan and Temple who basically abandons the pass. Persa the red shirt junior has looked as good as any QB in the nation this year with 6 TD 0 INT's and 81.6% passing efficiency. Northwestern's close call @ Vanderbilt looks better now that Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Mississippi last week. This is not why I like Northwestern at home as much it's more to do with their defense that has 9 takeaways and can really dominate an opponent as it has shown so far this season giving up just 37 points in three games. That's the play of Quentin Davie who had 90 tackles last year with 5 sacks he's already got 20 tackles and 3 interceptions to go along with a sack this year. It'll go along way as this is a veteran D line in front of him that should give Central Mich problems. I don't trust Radcliff at all as the QB for Central Mich though he has thrown for 795 yards and 3 TD he also has 2 interceptions. Northwestern has won it's last 8 against MAC teams and this reminds me an awful lot like Central Mich's trip to Boston College where they were just killed in a 31-10 game. Northwestern should take advantage of the opportunity to start their season 4-0. |
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09-24-10 | TCU Horned Frogs v. SMU Mustangs +18 | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
SMU +17.5 (4.4 Dime POD) -110 Sportsbook
All the talk is on TCU and the public is hammering them, but I'm looking at June Jones team a bit differently here. The traditional air it out team is harder to prepare for now as they have a 235 running back named Zach Line who can carry the load and is averaging 8ypc. TCU will most likely shut him down, but that will open it up for Kyle Padron and his athletic receivers. Darius Johnson has 15 catches, and Aldrick Robinson is a deep threat and one of the fastest players in college football. TCU DB's is the weakness of this team if you can even call it one. SMU receivers are a bit more talented than the secondary for TCU as they have given up some long TD's and they are young. On the other side of the ball Dalton is a similar QB to Padron one that can run and throw with accuracy. SMU's defense is really under rated and will give Dalton a new look. Dalton will try to find weapons, but this running game is going to be stuffed in my opinion looking at all the pressure on Dalton on the road in a "red out" environment. That's right SMU should be sold out as they are hosting the highest ranked team since 1989 when they had #1 Notre Dame. This is a huge inter state rivalry and SMU's defense is good enough to hold this close and their run and shoot offense is good enough to hold it's own and put up some points to cover 17 points. Overall I give SMU a shot to win this game which is why I love this play on Friday night. Special teams edge to SMU and this will be a big part of this game. Matt Szymanski is one of the top kickers/punters in the country. He's already perfect on every attempt including a 61 yarder and he averages 42 yp punt with accuracy he'll likely keep it away from Kerley here and field position will be very important. Along with that Darryl Fields for SMU is averaging 34.3 yards per kickoff. Finally I'm not going to bust you with trends like I have before I think is the most important quote of the day, "SMU is probably the best defense we've played to this point of the season," Patterson said. "Their passing game will be the best true passing team we'll see to this point and their offensive line...will be a challenge." Coming straight from TCU's head coach. Now I realize he's probably not under estimating a much improved SMU team from years past, but this will be a battle and a close battle. IN 2005 a similar situation TCU came in #5 in the country and lost 21-10. I expect the crowd to really get to DAlton here. |
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09-23-10 | Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +4.5 | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
Pitt/Miami Under 49 -110 (3.3 Dime OE Error) Pitt +4 -110 (2.2 Dime bonus)Lines @BROBURY
Make no mistake Pitt is beat up and lost their best defensive player for the season it looks like as Romeous is out with a herniated disc. However, I think there is plenty talent on this defense to contain a Miami offense that does have weapons all over the field, but likely will get impatient when it does get on the field as I believe Pitt will hold onto the ball for long periods of time via the running game. Pitt has yet to get the running game going with Dion Lewis a Heisman candidate and I believe they make a statement and do that tonight. The three interior offensive linement are new and have had issues, but with the bye week I expect a much improved look than the team that struggled in Utah which is a much more difficult place to play. If Miami stacks the box Jon Baldwin will have a huge night in one on one coverage as he |
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09-20-10 | New Orleans Saints v. San Francisco 49ers +6.5 | Top | 25-22 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
49ers +6 -120 buy 1/2 point (4.4 Dime POD); Under 44 (1.1 Bonus) lines@ BODOG
The public continues to pour in on the Saints. Is betting on Monday night chasing after Sunday |
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09-19-10 | Houston Texans v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 30-27 | Push | 0 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Redskins +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like this game as the REdskins continue to fly under the radar. This is a tough hard nosed team that has gotten better on offense and will show it this week. Houston opened up some holes in their secondary last week and Donovan will look 10 x better in his second game. Bottom line Foster won't run for 200+ yards against a 3-4 defense like WAshington with or without Haynesworth although he is probable. Houston just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a winning team. Big let down here after they had a huge win at home against the Colts. I don't see them being able to beat the Redskins on the road. |
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09-19-10 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Bengals +3 (3.3 Dime EB special)
Bengals come off a tough game with the Patriots and now they will play a Ravens team off Monday night that had to play blow for blow with the Jets. Honestly that was a hard hitting game and if you don't think that will have an impact as the Ravens now play another smash mouth game with the Bengals you are wrong. Carson Palmer will be able to take advantage of the weak secondary of Ravens with his targets and Bengals have similar if not better group of cover corners. Think the Bengals win this game out right. |
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09-18-10 | Iowa Hawkeyes v. Arizona Wildcats -1 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Arizona -2 (4.4 Dime LNF Play)
I like Arizona and the line movement is supporting my thoughts as Iowa is big public favorites to the tune of 69% yet the line has moved from Arizona being under dogs to favorites. This is a tough game for Iowa going west to play Arizona with a rebuilt offensive line. This is the firs time Iowa's line will be tested and Arizona has a relentless pass rush with Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed. Add in that they can shut down one side of the field Revis style with CB Trevin Wade and this will make life difficult for Stanzi on the road. Arizona has sped on the perimeter to give Iowa problems which will frustrate the defense as Nick Foles has ben great early on connecting with Juron Criner for 12 receptions and 236 yards. Iowa will have to honor the run too as Nic Grigsby is healthy and can burn them. This is a huge game for Mike Stoops who plays his alma mater and previous employer. Look for Arizona to come up with a big win behind the home crowd. Top it all off it's supposed to be close to 100 degrees something Iowa should not be prepared for. |
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09-18-10 | Fresno State Bulldogs v. Utah State Aggies +4 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Utah State +4 (4.5 Dime POD)
This line has really come down and I'm buying into what Utah State did against Oklahoma in week 1. Bottom line here Fresno is coming off the bye and does that help them prepare for Utah State? When you hit the injury bug it doesn't really as Robbie Rouse their best RB is out as well as SR WR Devon Wylie. So this team is a bit banged up and although their QB looked good against Cinci in their opener with 4TD he'll have more trouble against a Utah STate defense that is no longer a push over. Utah State has a dangerous passing offense with Borel who can scramble and had 331 passing yards against Oklahoma. If they clean up the turnovers they should win this game. This is probably the biggest game for Utah State at home in quite some time and I think they will continue their success of 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home. The last 3 meetings in Utah between these two have been decided by a total of 4 points and it seems as though Utah State is the team that has improved the most since last year's game where Fresno won 31-27 at home which is a different animal in terms of a major advantage for Utah State which is expecting a sold out crowd. Fresno's win over Cinci has really died out afte rCinci's latest performance and I really think the wrong team is favored here. Cincinnati gave up a bunch of sacks but they looked awful again last night against NC State. Fresno is still the team to me that forced just 15 turnovers in 13 games and only 11 sacks. They've always had an emphasis on running the game and now they need to find a runner. That'll be their main mission which will result in a close battle between these two. |
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09-18-10 | Navy Midshipmen v. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +3 | 37-23 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
La Tech +3 (2.2 Dime OE play)
Navy has looked bad just 27 points in their first two games. Is La Tech getting Navy at the right time? La Tech has a major revenge spot here as they lost on the road 32-14 and now they have seen the triple option offense. La Tech has the spread offense installed and this is a new look that Navy has not seen yet this season as they have been passed on just 19 times facing two run heavy first offenses. La Tech is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and only lost by 10 to Boise at home and by 8 at LSU. this is a huge game for them and they've been tested by TX A&M and I think that game will help them. The LB's are the strength of the team as Cole and Dudley can stop Navy's QB Ricky Dobbs who doesn't seem to be 100%. Special teams features WR Phil Livas who is electric. |
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09-18-10 | Air Force +17 v. Oklahoma | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
AirForce +17 (3.3 Dime Play)
Air Force continues to fly under the radar despite holding BYU to 88 yards passing a week ago and winning. We had Air Force a week ago and we take them here against Oklahoma. Oklahoma seems to have the tendency to look ahead and here they are in a let down spot after a big win last week. This is a team that struggled against Utah State in week 1 and Tim Jefferson is a lot more elusive than Utah State's QB. But the main story here is Air Force's defense that has been phenomenal. This is a secondary that gave up just 5 passing touchdowns if you take out their loss against BYU where they gave up 5 in 2009. They even shut down Houston's Case Keenum 222 yards and 6 interceptions in a rout of their bowl game 47-20. Oklahoma has struggled with Mountain West teams including BYU which they lost to a year ago on opening week. Air Force has what it takes to stay in a game especially getting +17, because their pass defense is great and they run the ball all the time. |
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09-18-10 | Arizona State +12 v. Wisconsin | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
Arizona State +11.5 (3.5 Dime Early Bird)
Wisconsin a #11 ranked team has not looked sharp early particularly against San Jose State only out gaining them by +96 yards and winning 27-14 at home. That's because this is a run first team and even though they return 10 starters including bruising back John Clay and their offensive line is big I think that the Sun Devils match up will for this type offense. Arizona State is very Big10 defensive type and they have enough size and strength to keep Clay from going wild with Tackles Lawrence Guy, Falahula and quality athletic linebackers. Arizona State probably won't be able to run the ball, but their spread offense agaisnt the Wisconsin defensive line that has just 4 sacks against subpar opponents will surely allow Arizona State to score some points with QB Steven Threet who has 630 yards and 5 TD's through the firs ttwo weeks. Again this is an Arizona State defense that led the Pac 10 in total defense and only lost at Georgia early last year by 3. They have more offense this year and in a "running type game" this is destined to be close. While I see Wisconsin winning it will be much closer than the line indicates and Vegas seems to agree as the line opened up at +15 or more and only 34% of the public is on Arizona State yet the line has dipped to +11 in some places. |
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09-17-10 | California v. Nevada +3 | Top | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Nevada +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like Nevada here at home under the bright lights. Cal has looked great the first two weeks, but let |
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09-16-10 | Cincinnati +2 v. North Carolina State | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Cincinnati +2 (4.4 Dime POD)
Wrong team is favored here in my opinion. I think NC State is getting too much credit for what they did at UCF which was not impressive to me at all. Russel Wilson their star just 10/30 for 105 yards. That's supposed to be the strength of the team and it was not the reason they won as they only snuck by 28-21 even though they forced 5 turnovers and had a block punt. I'm concerned about NC State in this spot against a Cinci front 7 that absolutely will make you pass. They have shut down the running games of Fresno State just 1.6 ypc and Fresno is one of the better running teams in recent years. Cinci will get a much needed win here tonight as NC State's experience on the offensive line as they had five offensive linemen that had never started a game and two running backs that never been in a college football game. You have to have a balance to beat a good team and they can't have a balance and I wouldn't be surprised if Cinci with their new 4-3 defense gets at Wilson. This alignment has produced 12 sacks. NC State's defense was great a week ago shutting down UCF and forcing turnovers. With that said Zach Collaros does not turn the ball over and NC State will have a tough time preparing for this team. First week they threw it 41 times and although not that successful Collaros did not throw an interception. Last week against Indiana State, yes Indiana State they got the running game going for more than 260 yards without their feature back. Isaiah Pead is expected to return giving NC State a fuzzy idea on how to defend the Bearcats. Bottom line I think Collaros can be great in this offense and they have the weaopons in Armon Binns and DJ Woods. This is an easier game than visiting Fresno State in my opinion as they had to go out west to play a good team. NC State off to a good start and the public and the lines have proven that, but I still think they are going to struggle in this spot. |
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09-13-10 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Chiefs +4.5 (4.4 Dime NFL POD)
Really like the Chiefs to surprise some people and it starts Monday night with a new stadium and the 2nd year for Matt Cassel which should be better than most expect. I really expect him to get it out to his play makers and expect him to get better with Weis back as his offensive coordinator as the Chiefs have the old duo from the Patriots days with Crennel at defense and Weis on the offensive end. Chargers have several issues going into this game. One being that their strength of passing the ball will not be as good against the Chiefs for 4 different reasons. They will be without their best WR and starting LT for contract reasons as Marcus mcNeill and Vincent Jackson won |
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09-12-10 | Cleveland Browns v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Bucs -2.5 @ 5DIMES (4.4 Dime POD)
The Browns can play defense that's for sure, but without a 100% Shaun Rogers they are a different team and I think the Bucs will be able to run the ball a bit. The Bucs had an improving defense down the stretch and with the addition of third overall pick Gerald McCoy they instantly got better and formed a unit that can now stop the run which is important against Cleveland. The Browns start Jake Delhomme who threw 13 interceptions in his first 6 games last year and had 2 against the Bucs where he was 9-17 for 65 yards. Luckily the running game got the Panthers a win that day, but as I said I think the Bucs are getting better by the day particularly against hte run. On offense Cadillac Williams may finally be living up to his potential without injuries and Josh Freeman started to play well down the stretch a year ago. The public is on the Browns at 66% the line has moved from TB -1.5 to -3 at most books. |
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09-12-10 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +2.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Texans +2 (2.2 Dime Oddsline Error)
The Colts have traditionally gotten off to a slow start. Just 14-12 over the Jaguars a year ago and 27-23 over the Dolphins in a game they should have lost. The Texans finally get the Colts early in the season and at home. The last 4 games in this series the Colts have won by just 21 points total. This is the lowest the spread has been and this is a talented Houston team that desperately wants to get started off at 1-0. I expect Schaub to have a dynamic game today and Arian Foster to be able to run a bit despite Bob Sanders being healthy. |
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09-11-10 | NC State Wolfpack +3 v. Central Florida Golden Knights | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
NC State +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like this game as the best on the day as the best player in the building will be the Wolfpack's returning QB Russel Wilson 31 TD 11 INT and over 3,000 passing yards a year ago. Wilson has composure and good presence in the pocket. I don't think he'll be afraid of star end Bruce Miller coming off the edge as he's very capable scrambling and he's got the receiving corp to have a great day against an inconsistent secondary from UCF that returns 3 starters, but is the same team that gave up 297 yards in their bowl game to freshmen QB of Rutgers Tom Savage. Wilson is better than Savage and I expect a big game for him as he seems more focused than in years past. The big news here is Nate Irving at LB returning for the Wolfpack. He is a big boost to this defense which will face a 2 QB system. I'm not confident in Calabrese although he can run and pass he is very raw in his Junior year and the freshmen Godfrey is just 5-11 and 176 pounds He might have trouble passing in the pocket over these two lines. UCF will run the ball a lot with Jon Davis 1109 yds 14TD last year. UCF has strength at WR, but again can these QB's get it to them? NC State can have the advantage in special teams with TJ Graham a special athlete that can take it back at any time. This is the 4th year in a row that UCF is facing an ACC opponent. They beat NC state two years ago but that was by 2 points and NC state gave up a 92 yard TD or close to open the game. NC State will be able to stop that kind of big play with the return of IRving playing in his home state. UCF could not play with Boston College or Miami in their other ACC match ups. I just think that UCF will struggle here and NC State needs a win here to be considered in the ACC. UCF just 13-28 in their last 41 non conference games. |
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09-11-10 | Wyoming +28 v. Texas | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Wyoming +28 (3-Dim Oddsline Error Play)
Wyoming has one of the strengths that will give Texas problems. Wyoming is flying in with arguably what could be the best secondary in the Mountain West. They gave fits to Txas a year ago when the score was 13-10 at the half. Wyoming will be playing with heavy hearts this week as they lost Ruben Narcisse in a car accident this week. Often times guys come out playing hard in those situations and I think Wyoming will. The 28 points is just too much for a Texas team that won't be flying up and down the field against this secondary. Texas should be able to run the ball on Wyoming and I believe that is what they will work on, but that should bring their total points scored down far enough. Texas came out flat a week ago and they are not a given here. Wyoming can play a little defense to keep themselves in games. This is a team that lost by just 10 at Air Force lastyear and 12 at Utah and beat Fresno in their bowl game. With no real running game or starting RB to start the year for Texas I expect them to struggle a bit here in the early going. Texas wins, but they don't cover the 4 TD spread. Tenn +12 (2-Dime Play) Lots of new faces in Tennesse, but they are still Tennessee with a solid defense playing in front of their home crowd of 100,000 people. Oregon has talent all over the place, but the one question mark is what I think will help Tenn get the cover and keep this game within striking distance. Oregon will start a young Darron Thomas in his first road start and he has to do it at Tennessee in front of a sold out crowd. This is night and day compared to what he faced a week ago. Tenn will force a couple of turnovers and will be good enough to slow down the running game of Oregon. Why I like this so much is there will be lots of running. Tenn will be throwing a bruising Tauren Poole and David Oku up the middle at the softest part of the Oregon defense the interior line. I expect them to set up a lot of play action passes and success. |
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09-11-10 | Oregon Ducks v. Tennessee Volunteers +11.5 | 48-13 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Wyoming +28 (3-Dim Oddsline Error Play)
Wyoming has one of the strengths that will give Texas problems. Wyoming is flying in with arguably what could be the best secondary in the Mountain West. They gave fits to Txas a year ago when the score was 13-10 at the half. Wyoming will be playing with heavy hearts this week as they lost Ruben Narcisse in a car accident this week. Often times guys come out playing hard in those situations and I think Wyoming will. The 28 points is just too much for a Texas team that won't be flying up and down the field against this secondary. Texas should be able to run the ball on Wyoming and I believe that is what they will work on, but that should bring their total points scored down far enough. Texas came out flat a week ago and they are not a given here. Wyoming can play a little defense to keep themselves in games. This is a team that lost by just 10 at Air Force lastyear and 12 at Utah and beat Fresno in their bowl game. With no real running game or starting RB to start the year for Texas I expect them to struggle a bit here in the early going. Texas wins, but they don't cover the 4 TD spread. Tenn +12 (2-Dime Play) Lots of new faces in Tennesse, but they are still Tennessee with a solid defense playing in front of their home crowd of 100,000 people. Oregon has talent all over the place, but the one question mark is what I think will help Tenn get the cover and keep this game within striking distance. Oregon will start a young Darron Thomas in his first road start and he has to do it at Tennessee in front of a sold out crowd. This is night and day compared to what he faced a week ago. Tenn will force a couple of turnovers and will be good enough to slow down the running game of Oregon. Why I like this so much is there will be lots of running. Tenn will be throwing a bruising Tauren Poole and David Oku up the middle at the softest part of the Oregon defense the interior line. I expect them to set up a lot of play action passes and success. |
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