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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds +105 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Cubs were able to salvage a split against the Braves with a come-from-behind victory and they improved to 29-16 at home but now they hit the road where they are just 15-21. Going back, the Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Cincinnati closed out its roadtrip with four straight losses to fall to 17-25 on the season away from home. This is now a big stretch as the Reds begin a nine-game, 10-day homestand with much at stake, as the results of this stretch heading into the All-Star break could go a long way in determining the club's future. Cole Hamels has been red hot with five straight quality starts but has not been as effective on the road with just four quality outings in eight starts. Sonny Gray has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts and the Reds are 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League teams that are allowing four or less rpg on the season, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-27-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -105 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Arizona won three of its last four games from its recent homestand after a six-game losing streak but it has struggled against teams like this, going 3-11 on the season against teams allowing 5.0 or more rpg. The Giants have had their own struggles but have been competitive at home going 5-3 over their last eight games and they have won six of their last seven series openers. Tyler Beede has not pitched well this season since being added to the rotation but the schedule against him has been brutal as five of his six starts have come on the road. But the results for the team have worked out as the Giants are 5-1 in his starts this season, having scored 31 runs in those games. Arizona hands the ball to Alex Young who is making his Major League debut. Young was 4-3 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 20 games (eight starts) for Reno and this is a more of a desperate move than anything for Arizona which has gotten nothing from the fifth spot in its rotation. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or higher. This situation is 55-20 (73.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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06-26-19 | Rangers v. Tigers -104 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Texas won its third straight game with a 5-3 victory last night and the Rangers are now tied with Boston and Cleveland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League nearly halfway through the season. They are still six games under .500 on the road where they are hitting just .225 against left-handed pitching. Detroit lost its fifth straight games last night and like New York, the Tigers are in good position for a rebound. They are struggling with the bats and the bullpen but the rotation has not been horrible and part of that is on display tonight. Matthew Boyd is coming off a pair of tough outings but those were on the road and he comes in with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home. Detroit is 12-3 in his last 15 home starts against American League teams with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse. He will be opposed by Mike Minor who is having a good season as well but the Rangers are just 4-4 in his eight road starts as lack of run support has been the issue. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Oakland is coming off a 6-4 homestand to improve to 24-19 at home but it is just 17-19 on the road and the bullpen is a big reason as it has a 5.57 ERA in those 36 games. St. Louis dropped its series finale against the Angels on Sunday and it is now 4-3 on this current homestand. The Cardinals are 24-16 at home this season and are a perfect 10-0 at home against teams averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game. Additionally, the Cardinals are 23-7 as favorites of -150 or less. Jack Flaherty gets the ball for St. Louis and while he has a 4.24 ERA, his 1.18 WHIP more than makes up for it and he is much better at home where he has a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in eight starts. Chris Bassitt counters for Oakland and he is having a decent season as well which is keeping this price at a good range. He does not go very deep into which is an issue because of the bullpen and going back, Oakland is 4-11 in his last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. 10* (978) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -125 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Philadelphia is 2-11 over its last 13 games including losses in seven straight and has now fallen 6.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. The Phillies are still a game over .500 and right in the Wild Card mix but the streak needs to end and this is an important series after getting swept by the worst team in the National League. The Phillies are 19-7 in their last 26 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets are 3-4 on this current roadtrip which is actually above the norm as they are still 8-22 in their last 30 road games. Steven Matz gets the call for New York and he has been up and down this season, especially on the road. He has a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight starts on the highway with only two of those being quality outings. The Mets are 6-21 in his last 27 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies counter with Zach Eflin who has tossed three straight quality starts and on the season, he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 outings. This includes a 2.13 ERA and 0.99 in six home starts, five of which have been quality performances. The Phillies are 5-0 in his last five home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-23-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped the first two games of this series and has now lost six straight games including the first five of this homestand. The Giants had dropped three in a row prior to the weekend and they have yet to produce a road sweep this season. The Giants are 10-28 in their last 38 games during game 3 of a series while the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six games during game 3 of a series. Merril Kelly posted three straight quality outings but got lit up for six runs in six innings against the Rockies in his last start but gets a much better matchup today. He dominated the Giants in one earlier head-to-head this season, shutting them out over 5.1 innings in a 7-0 home win in May. Shaun Anderson has been solid for the Giants but his worst start of the season came against Arizona where he allowed six runs over five innings. Here, we play against National League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season, after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 144-93 (60.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates -112 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Following a home sweep of the Brewers, San Diego has now won four straight games to move back over .500 on the season and while it is well behind the Dodgers in the National League West, the Wild Card race is very alive. This being said, the Padres are -32 in scoring differential which is by far the worst of any team in playoff contention. Pittsburgh is having a lousy season as a seven-game losing streak to open its most recent roadtrip knocked it way down in the standings. The Pirates are coming off a win against Detroit after falling behind 7-3 so there is some positive momentum heading into this weekend series. Joe Musgrove has pitched better than his 4.87 indicates as he comes in with a 1.27 WHIP through 14 starts and he faces a Padres offense that is the eighth worst hitting team in baseball. Eric Lauer has been all over the place and he has been especially poor on the road with a 7.81 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in six starts. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers -126 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Reds are coming off a home sweep of Houston to open the week and extend their winning streak to four games. They are now 5.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but are still four games under .500 overall which includes a 15-21 road record. The Reds are 5-11 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Brewers are coming off a 2-6 roadtrip that included a series sweep at the hand of the Padres to fall out of first place in the division. Milwaukee is 22-13 at home including four straight wins and going back, the Brewers are 39-17 in their last 56 home games against teams with a losing record. Jimmy Nelson is making his third start since missing a year and a half and while the results have not been promising, he is being brought back slowly and is in a prime at home. Cincinnati counters with Tanner Roark who had a good start in May but has been up and down since then. He has a 4.09 ERA over his last six starts and a 6.10 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee the last two years. Here, we play on teams batting .190 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 416-299 (58.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Arizona returned home from a 10-game roadtrip which went very well with a 7-3 record but the Diamondbacks were unable to carry any momentum forward as they got hammered 8-1 last night in the series opener. While Colorado and Arizona are not going to take out the Dodgers in the National League West, both are right in the Wild Card race and Arizona has to get better at home where it is just 14-17 on the season. Five of those wins can be attributed to Zack Greinke as he continues to dominate at home despite Chase Field being a hitter-friendly park. He has a 2.48 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six home starts where the Diamondbacks have won 35 of his last 51. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are 22-7 in his last 29 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jon Gray has struggled with control and the long ball this season and he has especially struggled on the road of late, posting a 7.16 ERA in his last five starts on the highway. Here, we play against underdogs that are hitting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 41-8 (83.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-18-19 | Mets v. Braves +113 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Braves won the opener of this series last night to make it 13 wins in their last 16 games and they have stretched their lead over the Phillies to three games in the National League East. Despite the run, they come in as home underdogs with history from last season being the biggest reason. Last season, Jacob deGrom was dominant in winning the Cy Young thanks to a 1.70 ERA but he was the least profitable pitcher in the rotation going 14-18 (-10.35 units) and this year has been even worse. He is having a solid season with a 3.37 ERA but New York is just 4-10 in his 14 starts while going 0-6 in six starts against winning teams. Julio Teheran was a big name involved in trade rumors last season at the deadline and the Braves are thankful they never dealt him. After an average start where he posted a 5.35 ERA through his first seven starts, he has put up a 0.81 ERA over his last eight outings and has not allowed more than one run in any of those. Going back to last season, the Braves are 14-2 in his last 16 starts as an underdog of +150 or less including a perfect 6-0 at home. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +121 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cleveland is coming off a 3-0 sweep in Detroit and heads to Texas sitting 10 games behind the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians are just one game over .500 on the road and they again come in as road favorites and of all teams in the American League with a winning record, they have the lowest scoring differential. Texas went 4-3 on its recent roadtrip and heads back home where it is 24-12 on the season which has kept the Rangers right in the Wild Card mix. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record. Cleveland gets a key piece back into the rotation as Mike Clevinger, who has been out since early April with a significant lat injury, will make his return to the mound on Monday. He started the season red hot before suffering the injury, tossing 12 shutout innings with 22 strikeouts before leaving his second start of the year because of the injury. Texas counters with Lance Lynn who got off to a poor start with a 5.75 ERA through his first seven outings but has posted seven straight quality starts, good for a 3.18 ERA. Here, we play against American League road teams hitting .265 or worse with a pitcher working on a layoff of more than seven days going up against a pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. this situation is 32-9 (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Texas Rangers |
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06-16-19 | Indians v. Tigers +157 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Indians have won the first two games of this series to move to three games over .500 on the season but they still trail the Twins by 11 games in the American League Central. Cleveland is right at .500 on the road yet it checks in once against as a heavy road favorite and as favorites this season, the Indians are -10.2 units with a lot of the forecasting based on past results and not what is happening this season. The Tigers are rebuilding and the record shows that but it is hard to beat this price with their best starting pitcher on the hill. Spencer Turnbull is in his first full season in the rotation and he has been outstanding with a 2.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 14 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 13 of those outings and going back, Cleveland is 3-19 against starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.90 or better. Trevor Bauer has been up and down all season and while he is coming off a quality start, he has not been able to string together too many as he has posted a 6.23 in his last four starts following a quality outing. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 team with a OBP of .320 or worse going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 35-17 (67.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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06-15-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -130 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Game of the Month. St. Louis rallied from a 5-4 deficit last night by scoring five runs in the eighth and ninth innings to take the first two games of this series against two solid starters. The Cardinals run into another one tonight and we are thinking the bats will not be as fortunate. They are now two games over .500 for the season and St. Louis has not been three games over .500 since it was 23-20 following a loss on May 15. Despite the decent wins, the Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Mets got hurt by the rain on Thursday and then by its own bullpen last night as they continue to fall further back in the National League East. They are 7.5 games behind the Braves with a lot of this due to poor play on the road. The Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing road record. Noah Syndergaard had one of the best starts of his career last Sunday as he seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball against Colorado. It was just the second time in 100 starts that he has limited an opponent to one hit over six or more innings. The Mets are 6-2 in his last eight home starts against team with a winning record. Michael Wacha is also coming off a great start but he has not been nearly as consistent as it was his first quality start since April 17. The Cardinals are 3-10 in his last 13 starts during Game Three of a series. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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06-14-19 | Phillies +127 v. Braves | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Atlanta has won seven straight games to take over first place in the National League East by a game and a half over the Phillies. The offense has been crushing it by averaging 6.9 rpg during this winning streak but the pitching has been fortunate for this run support, especially of late as Atlanta is allowing 6.0 rpg over the last five games. The Phillies are coming off an average 3-3 homestand and they hit the road where they are a game under .500 on the season and that is playing into this value number. The Phillies are 20-8 in their last 28 games following an off day. Nick Pivetta takes the hill for Philadelphia and he has been excellent since getting back into the rotation with a 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts. He has made just one road start this season but it was a great one as he limited the Dodgers to just three hits and no runs over six innings. The Phillies are 11-4 in his last 15 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Max Fried has been solid overall but has put up a couple poor outings of late and has a 6.89 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last three starts. The Braves are 2-5 in his last seven series opening starts. 10* (907) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals are 2-4 to open this roadtrip and that includes a 9-0 loss in Miami last night where they managed only three hits. St. Louis is 2-9 this season after a game where it had four or fewer hits. With the win in the second game of the Tuesday doubleheader, the Mets moved within one game of .500 for the seventh time since May 16, when they fell two games under .500 for the first time this season. New York has gotten to .500 just once in their previous six tries. Despite the Braves being on a six-game winning stream, New York is just 5.5 games out of first place in the National League East. Jacob deGrom has been not nearly as close to his dominating season from a year ago when he broke the consecutive quality starts streak on his way to the Cy Young but he is still having a great season. He has had a couple duds along the way but eight of his 13 starts have been quality outings and while this price is not considered a steal, it is loaded with value. DeGrom saw his winless streak reach five starts on Friday, when he took the loss despite allowing just two runs and striking out 10. He is 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA since his most recent win May 11 and he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts. In three career home starts against St. Louis, he is 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA over 20.1 innings. Jack Flaherty is having a decent season, at home. His ERA at Busch Stadium is 2.25 to go along with a 0.85 WHIP in seven starts but he has a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in six road outings. 10* (956) New York Mets |
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06-12-19 | Padres -126 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Game of the Week. The Padres lost the opener of this two-game set to make it three straight losses and they are in good shape for a bounce back tonight. They are still above .500 on the road which is good considering four of their last five road series have come against the Yankees, Dodgers, Rockies and Braves. The Giants snapped a two-game slide with the win and the six runs scored were just one game loess than their previous five games combined. San Francisco is hitting .222 on the season which is the lowest average in the National League. The Giants are 7-21 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. He was roughed up for seven runs and seven hits in four innings during his loss in San Francisco but that was back in April, which came 12 days after he blanked the Giants on three hits over 5.1 innings in his season debut for the Padres at home. He has been hurt by the long ball of late, allowing five home runs in his last four starts but the Giants are not a big power hitting team as they have hit the third fewest home runs in all of baseball. The Padres are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Shaun Anderson has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has made five starts and has allowed three runs or less in four of those including a pair of quality outings in his last two trips to the hill. The long ball has hurt him also as he has allowed four home runs in his last three starts and the Padres are an above average power team. Here, we play against National League underdogs with a poor OBP of .310 going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better, with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or better of their save opportunities. This situation is 189-79 (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros -115 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Brewers swept the Pirates over the weekend to make it four straight wins to conclude a 4-2 homestand and they hit the road sitting in first place in the National League Central by a half-game over the Cubs. The Milwaukee offense is hitting just .241, tied for fifth worst in the National League. The Astros won their last series at home against the Orioles and they have not lost a series since losing three of four in Minnesota at the start of May. They own the best home record in the American League at 24-9 and are laying an incredibly short price here for what they have accomplished at home. The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Brad Peacock gets overlooked by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole but he is having a great season especially at home with a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Houston is 15-3 in his last 18 starts when the money line is -100 to -150. Freddy Peralta is coming off a rare quality start after posting a 10.43 ERA in his previous four starts. Here, we play against road teams hitting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 45-12 (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Houston Astros |
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06-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -131 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona won its fifth straight game last night as the offense continues to pound the ball as they are averaging 8.8 rpg over their last four games but run into a tough situation tonight. The Diamondbacks were able to sweep Toronto over the weekend which is not saying much and prior to that, they were 4-10 in their last 14 road games. The Phillies have lost two straight games and are now tied with the Braves in the National League East at 37-29. Philadelphia is 11-1 in its last 12 games after scoring and allowing eight runs or more in a game. Jake Arietta is coming off a couple rough starts where he allowed five runs each against the Dodgers and Padres but the schedule has been against him as those were the third and fourth consecutive starts on the road. This is his first home start since May 15th. Arizona counters with Jon Duplantier who is making just his third start of the season and in his career and both of those were at home. The Phillies fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 88-43 (67.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-10-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins +130 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. St. Louis is now under .500 on the season following getting swept in Chicago against the Cubs as it is 31-32 overall. This put an end to a 5-1 run and despite its 11-19 road record, it is favored here based on who the opponent is and not necessarily looking at the splits. The Cardinals have dropped 13 of their last 16 road games. Miami has lost four in a row but those games were against the Brewers and Braves which are 10 and 7 games over .500 respectively. The Marlins are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a losing record. Michael Wacha has struggled mightily this season with a 6.30 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in nine starts. He is making his first since May 22nd following two relief appearances and the Cardinals are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Sandy Alcantara gets the call for the Marlins and he has been quietly solid with a 3.80 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 12 starts and his numbers are better at home, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has allowed no runs on four hits in his last two home starts covering 15 innings. Here we play on National League home underdogs with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 48-30 (61.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Miami Marlins |
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06-09-19 | Nationals -108 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Washington dropped the first two games of this series in San Diego before winning on Saturday behind one of the aces in Max Scherzer and look to even the series behind another ace. We won with San Diego in the series opener but that came after a two-game losing skid and the Padres are just 4-5 on this current homestand. The Nationals were on a 9-2 run prior to this homestand and look to close strong as they send Stephen Strasburg to the hill who is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed five runs in five innings against the White Sox. He has posted three straight quality road starts and going back, Washington is 24-8 in his last 32 road games. Luis Perdomo will be making his first start of the season after 11 relief appearances and he has not been very effective with a career 5.34 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .255 or worst and with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season going up against a pitcher whose ERA is 3.70. This situation is 34-13 (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Washington Nationals |
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06-07-19 | A's v. Rangers +104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Texas continues its homestand after a 7-2 start and while the first two series were against bottom-feeders Baltimore and Kansas City, the Rangers have been a sneaky good 22-10 at home which is the third best home record in baseball. While Oakland may seem like a tougher matchup, they are nothing special and the Rangers are 16-5 this season at home against teams with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse. Oakland opened up its roadtrip with a 7-4 win over the Angels to win the series 2-1 but it is still 13-16 on the road this season yet comes in as a favorite tonight. Brett Anderson has been decent with a 3.95 ERA and 1.38 WHIP but those numbers should not equate to a favorite role on the road, albeit a small one. Texas is hitting .288 over its last 10 games against left-handed pitching and the Rangers are 7-0 in their last seven home games against left-handed starters. Lance Lynn counters for Texas and he has been on a role with five straight quality outings, posting a 2.97 ERA in the process. He will be out for redemption after getting shelled in Oakland earlier this season. Texas is 5-0 in his five home starts while Oakland is 1-6 in its last seven games against right-handed starters. 10* (972) Texas Rangers |
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06-06-19 | Nationals v. Padres -104 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Washington hits the road following an abbreviated two-game home sweep of the White Sox to make it four straight wins. Additionally, the Nationals are 9-2 over their last 11 games so they are playing their best baseball of the season but they are still five games under .500 overall and on the road. The Nationals are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record while going 1-8 when playing with a day off this season. San Diego has lost two straight to fall to 2-4 on this current homestand which has put it two games under .500 at home but it catches a great number tonight. the Padres are 5-1 in their last six series openers. Joey Lucchesi gets the ball for San Diego and he has been solid with a 3.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 11 starts and he has been better at home with a 2.61 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven outings. Over his last four starts, he has a 2.59 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. Patrick Corbin has had his moments in his first season in Washington but has also been bad in others. He is coming off a start where he allowed eight runs in just 2.2 innings in Cincinnati. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets -127 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We lost a tough one with the Mets last night as San Francisco put up six runs in the tenth inning to win in extras and extended their winning streak to three games. This is their third three-game winning streak on the season and have yet to win four games in a row. The Mets meanwhile have lost three straight games following an 8-4 run and despite the setback last night, they are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. After a pair of rough outings, one relief appearance and one start, Jason Vargas has been very effective by posting a 2.40 ERA over his last six starts including allowing just two runs over 12 innings in his last two starts. The Giants have been horrible in this spot this season as they are hitting just .222 against lefties, third worst in baseball, including a mere .207 on the road. Going back, the Giants are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against left-handed starters. Tyler Beede posted a 13.50 ERA through one start and two relief appearances but bounced back with a quality outing last time out. However, that came against the Marlins which are the lowest scoring team in the Majors. The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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06-05-19 | Twins -128 v. Indians | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Cleveland was on a 1-6 home run prior to winning the series opener last night behind another solid performance from Shane Bieber. The Indians are at .500 for the season and still trail the Twins by 10.5 games in the American League Central and come in overpriced tonight. The Twins have been the biggest surprise in baseball this season as they are 40-19 which is the best record in the American League. Minnesota also owns the best home record and going back, the Twins are 11-2 in their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Tyler Clippard will take the place of Carlos Carrasco and this will be his first start of the season and just his second since 2008. Martin Perez is coming off a poor start at Tampa Bay, his worst of the season, after coming in with a 2.95 ERA through his first eight starts. Here, we play on American League teams averaging 5.4 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. This situation is 50-25 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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06-04-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -127 | Top | 12-11 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Baltimore hits the road following a 2-4 homestand to drop its record to 18-41, the worst record in baseball and while it has been better on the road than at home, its -121 scoring differential is the biggest in the Majors and cannot be ignored. As bad as Baltimore has been, this price is too short and it has not been good in this situation as it is 4-15 in its last road games when the money line is +125 to -125. Texas is going nowhere in the American League West because Houston is running away again but the Rangers are three games over .500 and their 20-9 record at home only trails the Astros for the best in the American League. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last five games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Dylan Bundy gets the ball for Baltimore and he has been average with a 4.58 ERA which goes up to 4.66 on the road. This is another brutal spot as Baltimore is 0-14 in his last 14 starts against American League teams averaging 4.9 or more rpg over the last two seasons. Drew Smyly had a good May with a 3.86 ERA and while he has been favored only once this season in seven starts, it resulted in a 10-2 victory. 10* (922) Texas Rangers |
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06-03-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +132 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Los Angeles is coming off a 6-1 homestand including wins in five straight games to move to 25-7 at Dodger Stadium which is the best home record in baseball. The Dodgers are a respectable 16-12 on the road but are overpriced tonight in the role of the favorite. Arizona got swept in four games in Colorado to open last week but it was able to salvage its weekend series against the Mets by taking the last two games of the three game set. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Robbie Ray gets the ball for Arizona and he is having a solid season with a 3.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 12 starts. He has allowed more than three runs only twice, once against the Braves, the best hitting team in the National League and the other against the Rockies in Colorado. His numbers are better at home where he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP and going back, the Diamondbacks are 5-0 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. Walker Buehler had tossed four straight quality outings but allowed five runs in five innings in his last start against the Mets and he allowed five runs in three innings in his lone start against Arizona this season. Arizona falls into a contrarian situation where we play against National League teams with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season, with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games. This situation is 48-33 (59.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (952) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-02-19 | Angels +100 v. Mariners | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Angels have taken two of the first three games of this series and look to wrap up a winning roadtrip where they are currently 4-2. While Los Angeles may be three games under .500 on the road, the Angels are 5-2 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. After opening the season 13-2, Seattle has gone a dreadful 12-34 since then and are dead last in the American League West. While good teams can recover from losses, the Mariners cannot as they are 8-25 in their last 33 games following a loss. Jose Suarez will be making his Major League debut today as the No. 2 pitching prospect in the organization. He went 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA in five games for Salt Lake, striking out 20 and walking 11 in 23 innings and the results were actually better because he had one poor start. Suarez has a fastball that averages 92 mph and touches 95 with late arm-side movement. His best pitch is an 81-mph changeup he throws with deception and sinking action. His mid-70s curveball is an above-average swing-and-miss pitch when he lands it, and his slider is improving. Seattle counters with Marco Gonzales who has been good at times and poor in others. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in seven home starts which is even worse considering T-Mobile Park is a pitcher friendly stadium. 10* (921) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-01-19 | Blue Jays +144 v. Rockies | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Game of the Week. While the future looks bright for Toronto with a loaded pool of prospects, the present has not been so good as the Blue Jays are now 15 games under .500 following their fourth straight loss last night. Going back, they are just 2-9 over their last 11 games but the starting pitcher tonight is responsible for both of those victories. Toronto is 17-10 in its last 27 games when allowing nine or more runs last time out. The Rockies have won six straight games to move to two games over .500 for the season but they still trail the Dodgers by nine games in the National League West. They came into the Arizona game on Thursday with a 0 scoring differential so Colorado has been far from dominant despite the blowout last night as four of its last seven wins have come in its last at-bat. Marcus Stroman has had a solid season even though his record does not show it. He is 3-6 but has a 2.74 ERA in 12 starts. He is coming off three solid outings, giving up just one earned run in each of those games and has tossed four straight quality outings. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. Jon Gray counters for Colorado and he has been all over the place, posting a 6.21 ERA over his last six starts. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 67-27 (71.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (979) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-31-19 | Nationals v. Reds +103 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 103 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Washington took a pair in Atlanta to snap a five-game road losing streak yet it is still just 11-17 on the highway and comes in as a road favorite here. The Nationals had Thursday off and going back, they are 1-10 in their last 11 games following an off day. Cincinnati is coming off a split against Pittsburgh to open this homestand and it remains a game over .500 at home. The Reds have won six straight games following a loss. Tyler Mahle is having a solid season although his 1-5 record and 4.15 ERA may not show it. He has a 1.24 WHIP which is excellent and the schedule has been against him as eight of his 10 starts have been on the road and he has allowed just one run in 11 innings at home. Patrick Corbin has been having a solid season as well but he has been much more effective at home than on the road. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season but with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals -109 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series to make it five wins in their last six games but there could be some lookahead today as they travel out west for a three-game set with the Dodgers over the weekend. They have been tough at home with a 20-10 record and the short price may seem misleading but it is there for a reason. The Cardinals have lost three straight games to fall two games under .500 but at still +12 in scoring differential which is actually sixth most in the National League. St. Louis is 10-4 in its last 14 games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game while going 20-4 in its last 24 games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. Philadelphia hands the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA but over his last three starts, he has allowed 17 hits and 13 runs in 12 innings. Eickhoff had a stellar 1.50 ERA through his first five games but has labored with a 9.75 ERA over his last three outings. After giving up zero home runs in his first 30 innings, he has surrendered seven long balls in his last three outings. The Phillies are 0-4 in his last four starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. The Cardinals counter with Dakota Hudson who has been on a roll of late. He tossed a career-high 6.1 innings in a 6-3 win over the Braves in his last outing and now has four quality starts in May, including three straight, and a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. 10* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-29-19 | Tigers v. Orioles -116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Detroit picked up a shutout win last night in Baltimore to snap a three-game slide but it remains 12 games under .500 for the season. It has been a lengthy poor run for the Tigers as they are 8-22 over their last 30 games and they have gone 0-8 over their last eight games following a win. Detroit is 24-43 in its last 67 games on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Baltimore has had its share of struggles as well with the worst record in baseball but it does have a rare advantage tonight that we can take advantage of. Pitching has been the big issue for the Baltimore struggles as its 5.73 ERA is worst in all of baseball and by a wide margin. One pleasant surprise has been the arm of John Means who has a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through eight starts, both of which are best on the team of the regular starters. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of those outings and the Tigers are 8-20 in their last 28 games against left-handed starters. Detroit turns to Ryan Carpenter who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed one run on two hits in five innings but this came after giving up 13 runs over nine innings in his first two starts. Baltimore is hitting a solid .266 at home against left-handed pitching. 10* (918) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros -131 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Houston took the opener of this series yesterday as it took at 6-2 lead and held on for the 6-5 victory. The Astros are 5-3 on this current homestand to move to 21-7 at home on the season, the best home record in baseball. The Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago has lost two straight games but remains in first place in the National League Central by a half-game over the Brewers. The Cubs are just 12-12 on the road and going back, they are 1-6 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Rookie right-hander Corbin Martin will start for the Astros. Tuesday will mark the fourth career start and third at Minute Maid Park for the Houston native, who recorded nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings in his big-league debut on May 12th while beating the Rangers. Jon Lester has allowed nine runs over his last two starts covering 8.1 innings and is in a tough spot here as the Astros are ranked first in the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Here, we play against National League road teams 4.7 rpg and with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. This situation is 43-7 (86 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Houston Astros |
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05-27-19 | Mets +161 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Mets are back to .500 at 26-26 as they have won six of their last seven games. They now begin a seven-game West Coast swing that starts against a Dodgers team that has the best record in the National League and is coming off a 6-2 road trip. We have no issue stepping in front of that Los Angeles train backing an elite ace at a great underdog price. Jacob deGrom has had a couple poor outings this season but he will look to repeat his solid outing Wednesday against the Nationals where he gave up one run on two hits over six innings, with his eight strikeouts matching his most since April 14. Many will point out the fact he is 0-4 against the Dodgers but he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 10 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. Clayton Kershaw is having a great season but he is far from dominant like he has been in the past. He has a 3.33 ERA and a 44:8 K:BB ratio, neither of which are anything special and he has proven to be hittable of late, allowing 26 hits over his last four starts. Here, we play against National League home favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg and after scoring nine or more runs last game going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (907) New York Mets |
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05-26-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -151 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals snapped the Braves three-game winning streak last night and look to keep that going here before hitting the road for a big series against the Phillies. St. Louis scored four runs in the eighth inning to secure the victory and that positive momentum goes forward. St. Louis is now 8-0 in home games with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season. The Braves are now 2.5 games behind the Phillies in the National League East and despite the win last night, the Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. Jack Flaherty gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been on a roll since a shaky start to the season. He posted a 5.25 ERA through his first five starts but has a 2.50 ERA over his last five starts. Additionally, he has a 2.48 ERA in five home starts. Julio Teheran counters for Atlanta and while he has been dominant at home, he has a 4.46 ERA on the road. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .430 or better and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts going up against teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.30 or better. This situation is 123-68 (64.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-25-19 | Rangers v. Angels -124 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. With the series opening win last night, Texas has now won five straight games to move to two games over .500 on the season. The Rangers picked up a rare road win on Friday as they are still just 8-15 on the highway and despite that victory, they are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record. The Angels have trended in the opposite direction as they are on a five-game losing streak with the offense averaging just 3.0 rpg over this stretch. Los Angeles is 35-17 in its last 52 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Tyler Skaggs has shown some inconsistency but he has pitched better than his overall records indicate. He has been very solid at home with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in three starts. Mike Minor has been shockingly good for the Rangers through 10 starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.13 WHIP but they are just 5-5 in those games including 2-3 on the road where his numbers go up considerably. The Rangers are 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a divisional win as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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05-24-19 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Giants | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Arizona got swept in San Diego as the pitching did its part but the bats got nothing going to make it five straight losses for the Diamondbacks. They are still two games over .500 on the road and after having yesterday off, Arizona looks to improve upon its 6-0 record in its last six games following an off day. The Giants have not been playing well all season as they are in last place in the National League West, seven games under .500, following losses in three of four games against the Braves. That dropped San Francisco to 10-15 at home and going back, the Giants are 8-22 in their last 30 home games against teams with a winning road record. Robbie Ray gets the ball for Arizona and he is having a solid season with a 3.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts. He has allowed more than three runs only once and that was against the Braves, the best hitting team in the National League. Arizona is 15-4 against the money line in his last 19 National League road games against teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. Drew Pomeranz counters for the Giants and he has struggled to a 5.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight starts. His numbers improve slightly at home but the Giants have given him just 2.00 rpg in three outings. This is a good chance for the offense to get out of its slump as Arizona is hitting .277 against left-handed pitching including .271 on the road. Here, we play on all National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 58-13 (81.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-22-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -109 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Miami won the opener of this three-game series last night 5-4 in 11 innings to increase its season-best winning streak to four games. The run is certainly a surprising one as the Marlins came in 10-31 including losses in seven straight and 10 of 11 where they averaged just 1.7 rpg prior to this run. The Marlins are 18-42 in their last 60 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. It has been a horrible homestand for Detroit as it has lost its first seven games. The pitching has gotten destroyed by allowing an average of 8.1 rpg during this skid but we expect a bounce back tonight. Daniel Norris is coming off his worst outing statistically this season as he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, over 5.1 innings against Oakland on Friday. The Marlins have scored just 45 runs on the road which is by far the fewest in the league and the are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against left-handed starters. Miami counters with Jose Urena and while he is coming off a pair of quality starts, he has been inconsistent all season, allowing four runs or more in four of his nine starts. He is getting just 0.7 rpg of support on the road and Miami has dropped his last four outings. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against an opponent that is batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 48-12 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Detroit Tigers |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians +115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. We lost with the Indians last night, dropping the first two games of this series and they will be out this afternoon to avoid the sweep in what is another positive situation with value. While Cleveland was a slight favorite last night, it is an underdog at home today despite the favorable home/road splits and going back, the Indians are 16-5 in their last 21 games after losing the first two games of a series. Oakland has now won five straight games but remains nine games behind the Astros in the American League West. Frankie Montas is a big reason this line is what it is as he has put together a fine start to the season with a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first nine starts. His numbers are the same on the road but Oakland is just 2-3 in his five road starts with the wins coming against Baltimore and Detroit. Cleveland turns to Jefry Rodriguez and he has been very solid as well with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through five starts. He has already beaten Oakland once and here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .260 going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better, starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 52-23 (69.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (964) Cleveland Indians |
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05-21-19 | A's v. Indians -124 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. This line has come down quite a bit from the opening number as the value is squarely on the Indians now. Cleveland took three of four against Baltimore to end last weekend but lost the opener of this series against Oakland last night as it tried to rally from a 3-0 deficit but came up short. The Indians are still 14-9 at home which is the fourth best home record in the American League. Cleveland is 39-16 in its last 55 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Oakland has won four straight games as it swept the Tigers and despite the four straight road wins, Oakland is 9-15 for the season on the highway. Going back, the A's are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The A's look to remain hot against Trevor Bauer, who aims to rebound after allowing two homers and a career-high-tying seven earned runs Thursday against the Orioles. It was the second time in three outings he yielded seven earned runs. Despite this, he has a 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the season. And he has dominated Oakland the last two seasons with a 1.32 ERA. The A's are 7-19 in their last 26 road games against a right-handed starters. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt who has been strong through five starts but he has yet to face a strong offensive team. 10* (914) Cleveland Indians |
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05-20-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -117 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Chicago took two of three in Washington over the weekend to make it a 3-3 roadtrip and keep its 1.5-game lead in the National League Central. The Cubs head back home where they are 15-6 on the season which is the third best home record in baseball behind the Astros and Dodgers. The Cubs are 17-6 when playing against a team with a winning record this season while going 21-7 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Philadelphia swept the Rockies over the weekend to increase its lead in the National League East to 2.5 games over the Braves. While this is clearly a talented team, the Phillies have benefitted from an easy schedule as 28 of their 46 games have taken place at home where they are 18-10 compared to 9-9 on the road. Going back, the Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 series openers. Jake Arietta gets the ball for Philadelphia and he is coming off his second straight start where he allowed four earned runs and we made the mistake of playing on him last time out. His home and road splits are nearly identical and the Phillies are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. Yu Darvish counters for the Cubs and while he has been inconsistent, he is coming off one of his best starts which he can carry going forward. 10* (954) Chicago Cubs |
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05-19-19 | Twins v. Mariners -105 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Minnesota put up 18 runs last night as the offense continues to dominate the Mariners pitching in this series, outscoring Seattle 36-11 in the first three victories. The Twins have now won five straight games to maintain a 505-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. We expect those bats to cool off today however as they are facing the best Seattle starter in the rotation. Seattle opened this homestand with a pair of wins against Oakland and desperately needs a win before heading out on a six-game roadtrip. Yusei Kikuchi gets the ball for the Mariners and his 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP both lead the teams among starters. He is coming off a no-decision in his last start against Oakland, which he allowed three runs on five hits over six innings against Oakland. That came after an impressive 10-1 victory in New York where he held the Yankees to just one run and three hits over 7.2 innings. He has tossed three straight quality outings. Kyle Gibson counters for Minnesota and he has had his share of struggles on the road, posting a 4.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts but has benefited from big run support. Here, we play against teams that are batting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent over the last five seasons. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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05-18-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We lost a tough one last night with the Red Sox in a low scoring game that Houston stole in the eighth inning. Rick Porcello entered the eighth inning having retired seven consecutive batters and with 91 pitches on his ledger but gave up a two-run home run to cement the Astros ninth straight win. Boston comes in as an underdog once again, albeit not nearly as large as Friday, but that is where the value is once again as the Houston winning streak is playing the biggest part in this number. Despite the loss, Boston has rebounded from a bad start to the season as it is now two games over .500 after a 17-8 run over its last 25 games and the Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. The Astros have the best home record in baseball but they are just three games over .500 on the road and going back, they are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning record. Corbin Martin is coming off a successful Major League debut as he limited Texas to just two runs on three hits in 5.1 innings while striking out nine. That was at home however and now he is making his first ever road start against one of the best offenses in baseball. Hector Velazquez counters for Boston and while he has been limited in his pitch count, he is coming off his best start and was stretched to his longest outing of the season which is very encouraging. 10* (974) Boston Red Sox |
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05-17-19 | Rockies v. Phillies -117 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Philadelphia has seen its lead in the National League East shrink to a game and a half over the Braves following an off day on Thursday. The Phillies didn't have it in the final three games against the Brewers as they were outscored 22-6 in the three losses following a series-opening win. This is the second worst three-game stretch for Philadelphia as it was held to two runs in three straight losses in late April and responded with a 6-0 win next time out and going back, it is 17-3 in its last 20 home games after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span. Colorado lost in Boston on Wednesday in extra innings as a five-run rally was for naught. The Rockies have been playing better after an awful start to the season but they are still inconsistent on the road and they are 2-5 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies turn to Cole Irvin for his second start of the season. He was terrific in his major league debut last Sunday at Kansas City, tossing seven strong innings and allowing five hits and one run. The Rockies counter with Jon Gray who is struggling after a great start to the season. He has a 7.16 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed 10 runs over 10.1 innings in his last two road starts and in two career starts at Philadelphia, he has an 8.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 5.0 or better and with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 75-35 (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-16-19 | Pirates v. Padres -127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost three straight games to finish their most recent roadtrip at 1-4 and they head back home where they have won six of their last nine games. The starting pitching has kept San Diego within reach of the Dodgers in the National League West where it is six games back as the starters have posted a 3.27 ERA which is one of the better marks in baseball. Going back, San Diego is 11-2 in its last 13 games after getting shutout to a divisional rival. The Pirates lost their series finale in Arizona 11-1 and with the exception of a couple solid efforts, the pitching has been brutal as they have allowed 6.7 rpg through the first seven games of this current roadtrip. For San Diego, Eric Lauer will be looking to rebound from the worst start of his young career while seeking to snap a personal three-game losing streak. He allowed eight runs in three innings but that came in Colorado and prior to that, he had a 4.30 ERA, which is not great by any stretch, but did have a 1.30 WHIP through his first seven starts. The Pirates are 0-5 in their last five games against left-handed starter. Trevor Williams counters for the Pirates and he has not been sharp as he has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 19 innings and has had a hard time keeping the ball on the ground. Williams, who is a native of San Diego, is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Padres, giving up eight runs on eight hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. 10* (960) San Diego Padres |
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05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -108 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Sweet Spot. Milwaukee snapped a three-game slide with a 6-1 win last night behind a solid effort from Brandon Woodruff as he allowed just one hit over six innings. The Brewers remain 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but they are still two games under .500 on the road and despite the win last night, the Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Philadelphia is still 3.5 games in front of the Mets and Braves for first place in the National League East. The Phillies are 15-8 at home which is the fifth best home record in baseball yet are laying a very short price tonight. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Jake Arrieta looks to bounce back from a poor outing in Kansas City where he allowed four runs including three home runs. He opened the season with five straight quality outings and has five in his seven starts and going back, the Phillies are 4-1 in his last five home starts against teams with a winning record. The Brewers will hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez, who is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts but he has yet to post a quality outing. Philadelphia is 26-10 in its last 36 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-14-19 | Cardinals -121 v. Braves | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals are coming off a rough homestand where they went 2-5 including losses in their last three games against the Pirates and they are now three games over .500 on the season. St. Louis is 3.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and going back, it is 6-2 in its last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta meanwhile has won three straight games to conclude a 6-4 roadtrip. The Braves are just one game over .500 overall and right at .500 at home after starting the season 4-0 at SunTrust Park. Going back, the Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games following an off day. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for Atlanta and he has struggled out of the gate following opening the season on the injury list. He has a 5.94 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through his first three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He has allowed five home runs after allowing just 17 home runs in 31 starts last season. The Braves are 1-7 in his last eight home starts against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty who has been inconsistent this season but his command remain dominant and he possesses a 43:13 K:BB ratio. While his ERA is 4.32, his WHIP is 1.27 which is a better indication of how he has been pitching. 10* (957) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +145 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our NBA Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is riding a five-game winning streak while winning eight of nine including a pair of blowouts of Texas over the weekend by a combined score of 26-9. The Astros improved to 16-4 at home but they are just 10-11 on the road yet they are a significant favorite here. The Tigers won in Minnesota yesterday to split the series with the Twins and they head back home where they are 9-8 on the season. The Tigers will go with their ace, left-hander Matthew Boyd, in the series opener. Boyd has posted seven consecutive quality starts, lasting at least six innings and allowing no more than three runs. He's 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA during that span. On the season, he has a stellar 63:00 K:BB ration and even though he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball, Detroit is 7-0 in his last seven starts as a home underdog of +125 to +175. The Astros will counter with Brad Peacock. He delivered a stellar performance against Kansas City on Wednesday, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 12. It was his third quality start of the season but he has followed up his last two with horrible outings, allowing 12 runs over 8.2 innings. The strikeout total from the last game is misleading as came in with 14 strikeout total over his previous four starts. Here, we play against teams that are batting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 37-11 (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Detroit Tigers |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants -101 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Francisco looks to avoid the series sweep on Sunday and we are getting a great number in a pitching mismatch. The Giants rallied from a 3-0 deficit yesterday to take the lead only to allow two more run for their third straight loss. The Reds have won three straight games behind some solid pitching as they have allowed just four runs over those three games but this is a chance for the Giants to bust out. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. To his credit, Tyler Mahle has pitched well this season with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in seven starts but he is winless and the Reds are 1-6 in those games. This is because he is getting just 1.29 rpg of support and we do not expect that to change here as Cincinnati is hitting just .194 against left-handed pitching on the road. Going back, the Reds are 0-8 in his last eight road starts. Madison Bumgarner may not be the dominating pitcher he once was, but he is pitching better than his 3.99 ERA indicates as he has a 1.15 WHIP to go along with a 51:8 K:BB ratio. The Giants are 19-9 in his last 28 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (958) San Francisco Giants |
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05-11-19 | Phillies -125 v. Royals | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Kansas City picked up a rare win last night behind a strong effort from Homer Bailey to move to 14-25 on the season. Winning streaks have been few and far between for the Royals as they are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win and pitching remains the big issue as they have a 4.99 ERA which is fifth highest in baseball. Going back, the Royals are 1-8 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Philadelphia had a two-game winning streak halted with the loss last night but still has a three-game lead in the National League East over the Braves. They have not exactly been dominating on the road but that is keeping this number down with a big pitching edge. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and with the exception of one bad start in Miami, he has been solid this season. He has a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven starts and is coming off a pair of quality outings where he allowed two runs over 16 innings. It was a good start for Brad Keller but he has posted a 5.82 ERA over his last four starts and his control is a real issue with a 36:28 K:BB ratio. The Royals are 1-5 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (929) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants +135 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Giants lost a tough one yesterday as they nearly rallied from a 7-0 deficit after two innings but eventually fell 12-11 to conclude a 3-3 roadtrip. San Francisco heads home where it is 7-9 but is catching a significant number here that is based solely on starting pitching. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a win at Oakland yesterday but it still sits just 7-14 in the road. The Reds offense has been horrible on the road as they are hitting just .190 which is dead last in baseball. The Reds are 0-5 in their last five games following a win. The reason for this line is because of Luis Castillo who has turned into the ace of the Cincinnati rotation. He has a 1.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through his first eight starts but the Reds are just 4-4 in those games. Those numbers increase to a 2.55 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road where the Reds are 1-2, giving him just 3.3 rpg of production. The starting rotation for the Giants has been underperforming for the most part and a big piece of that has been Dereck Rodriguez following two straight poor outings. However, prior to those, he had a 3.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after his first five starts and he will be out for revenge after Cincinnati tagged him for eight runs last time out. 10* (964) San Francisco Giants |
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05-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -135 | Top | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals remain home after losing two of three against the Phillies which includes losses in the last two games where they managed just one run total. They have lost six of their last seven games and are now in third place in the National League Central, a game and a half behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is a game over .500 following a 3-2 homestand but it is -28 in scoring differential which is tied for second worst in the National League. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last four games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Michael Wacha takes the hill for the Cardinals with a great opportunity to get back on track. He has put up some average numbers this season but taking a look at who he has faced explains a lot as he has taken on Milwaukee twice, Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles. He now faced the second lowest scoring offense in baseball. Even more in his defense, he has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts. Since 2017, he has made three home starts against Pittsburgh and posted a 0.40 ERA. Joe Musgrove opened the season with five straight quality starts but is coming off a poor effort against Oakland, allowing seven runs in just 2.2 innings. In two career starts in St. Louis, Musgrove has allowed nine runs over 12 innings. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays +100 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Twins handed the reeling Blue Jays their fourth straight loss while Minnesota picked up its eighth win in 11 games. It was also a second straight shutout as Toronto was blanked by Jose Berrios after getting dominated by Martin Perez on Monday in the series opener. It was the Blue Jays' first time getting shut out in two straight games since July 9-10, 2015. Expect the bats to wake up tonight against Kyle Gibson. He was coming off a pair of quality starts, but both were against Baltimore, which came after three shaky outings to open the season and he was roughed up against the Yankees last time out. In three career starts at Rogers Centre, he has a 7.86 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. Trent Thornton has been a solid addition to the rotation despite not having picked up a win in seven starts. He has a 4.08 ERA but a 1.19 WHIP and in those seven starts, he has allowed three hits or less four times and has gone at five innings in all of those. He has also picked up 38 strikeouts in 35.1 innings and has fared much better than he was expected to when he came over from Houston in a trade last offseason. 10* (970) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-07-19 | Nationals -102 v. Brewers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. It has not been a great start to the season for Washington which is six games under .500 following a 1-3 start to this roadtrip including a series opening loss last night. It was a case where the Nationals No. 1 ace came in as a slight underdog and lost and we get ace No. 2 tonight as a great price in a better situation. Milwaukee has now won four straight games and sits one game out of first place in the National League Central. The Brewers hand the ball to Adrian Houser who was lit up for five runs on nine hits in four innings in his first Major League start on April 22. Stephen Strasburg counters for Washington and he has posted just bad outing this season and he is currently in his best form with a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over his last three starts. Washington is 16-2 in his last 18 road games against NL teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 133-75 (63.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (901) Washington Nationals |
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05-06-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays -104 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Minnesota lost two of three games in New York over the weekend but still holds a two-game lead in the American League Central over Cleveland. The Twins are 9-7 on the road and this is where the pitching has really struggled as they have a 5.26 ERA which is third worst in baseball. Toronto concluded a 1-5 roadtrip with a pair of losses on Saturday and Sunday in Texas and after a solid run prior to this, the Blue Jays are now four games under .500 overall. Marcus Stroman has just one win this season but he is back to his old form that we saw to start his career. He has a 2.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through seven starts and he has been sensational at home with a 0.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in four starts. The lack of wins is due to 2.57 rpg of support but this should change tonight. Martin Perez is off to a perfect 4-0 start after three relief appearances and four starts but we cannot be sold on this guy. He had only one year with a sub-4.00 ERA in seven seasons in Texas and he has struggled on the road with a career 5.03 ERA. 10* (970) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-04-19 | A's v. Pirates -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Oakland snapped a six-game slide with a 14-1 win in Pittsburgh with that 14-run output being just one run short of those previous six games combined. They are still just 5-11 on the road and do not have much business being even money in this spot. Going back, the A's are 3-14 in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh had its two-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and has now fallen to 2-9 over its last 11 games after a red hot start to the season. The Pirates have lost six straight home games which is another reason this number is as low as it is which makes the contrarian approach more value loaded. Trevor Williams is coming off his first bad start of the season as he allowed five runs in six innings but that came against the Dodgers, the highest scoring team in the National League. He had tossed five straight quality outings to open the season and we expect him to get back to that form tonight and the same form that saw him post a 3.11 ERA in 31 starts last season. Chris Bassitt has looked sharp but has just two starts heading into tonight and Oakland is just 4-9 in his last 13 road starts. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings. His situation is 43-21 (67.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-03-19 | Twins v. Yankees -148 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees finished their most recent roadtrip with a 6-3 record although they did lose the final two games against Arizona as the offense was shutdown with just three runs total after averaging 6.6 rpg in the first seven games. New York returns home where it is a modest 8-7 which is keeping this number down as is the rash of injuries the Yankees have endured. But they are 5-1 in their last six games here and send new ace James Paxton to the hill. He is coming off a subpar effort against the Giants and in three road starts, he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.87 WHIP but Yankee Stadium has treated him well with a 0.46 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in three outings. In five starts against the Twins, he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Minnesota has won two straight games to complete a 6-1 homestand and it now has a three-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for the Twins and he is in a tough spot here. He is coming off a pair of quality starts, but both were against Baltimore, which came after three shaky outings to open the season. In eight starts against the Yankees, he is 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with the Twins losing seven of those games. 10* (918) New York Yankees |
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05-02-19 | Rays -151 v. Royals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Tampa Bay took the opener of this series but after a postponement on Tuesday, the Rays were swept in the doubleheader yesterday, getting outscored a combined 11-4. Those losses snapped a three-game winning streak for Tampa Bay which remains two games ahead of the Yankees for first place in the American League East. The Rays are 14-3 in their last 17 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Kansas City was on a 2-8 run before the Wednesday sweep and while it has been better at home than on the road, the Royals are still two games under .500 at home. Yesterday can be considered a total aberration as going back, the Royals are 6-21 in their last 27 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Charlie Morton has been a great addition to the rotation as he has a 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through six starts as he has allowed more than two runs only once and that was against the potent Red Sox. Danny Duffy counters for Kansas City and he is coming off a shaky first start of the season and could be in trouble again as the Rays are 5-0 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. Tampa Bay falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on American League road teams allowing 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent allowing 4.9 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 102-52 (66.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-01-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +131 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 131 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After winning the series opener on Monday, the Giants lost last night 10-3 as reliever Ty Blach allowed seven runs in the sixth and seventh inning. San Francisco is now just 6-9 at home including 1-4 on this current homestand but it is catching a solid price tonight with an advatnage on the hill. We played against the Dodgers Monday as they have been a much better team at home with a 12-4 compared to a now 8-8 record on the road. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants and while they are 1-5 in his six starts with his ERA being 4.30, he has pitched much better than that. He has a 1.12 WHIP in those games to go along with a 35:5 K:BB ratio. He has tossed eight straight quality starts against the Dodgers, posting a 2.04 ERA over 53 innings in those games. Los Angeles sends Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill and he is having a solid season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in five starts but the success has mostly come at home. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in two road start with the Dodgers losing both games and it has not helped they have scored only three runs in those two games. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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04-30-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have won 11 of 13 since sweeping a two-game series from Boston on April 16-17 and have won four straight series. They are coming off a weekend sweep of the Giants to move to 6-1 on this current roadtrip but they will be running into their biggest test thus far. Going back to last season, the Yankees are 1-11 in their last 12 games against the money line as road underdogs of +150 or less. Arizona has won 10 of 14 games despite dropping its last two games against the Cubs and it is still just two games out of first place in the National League West. C.C. Sabathia is expect to surpass 3,000 strikeouts tonight, making him just the third left-hander to do so, but he could struggle here on the road against after a bad start in Los Angeles against the Angels. The Diamondbacks are hitting .300 against left-handed pitching which is the best in baseball and it is far from a fluke as the they have 320 plate appearances which is fourth most in baseball. Arizona also leads baseball with 51 RBIs and 165 total bases against lefties. Since getting shelled in his first start of the season against the Dodgers, Zack Greinke has made five straight quality starts, winning four, and has 13 scoreless innings in his last two games. Despite this being considered a hitters park, he is 27-12 in his last 39 home starts. Here, we play against underdogs that are hitting.333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 41-8 (83.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-29-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 139 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers hit the road following a three-game home sweep of the Pirates to improve to 19-11 and maintained their two-game lead over the Padres in the National League West. While it is 12-4 at home, Los Angeles is just 7-7 on the road and going back, the Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Giants meanwhile were swept by the Yankees over the weekend but going back, San Francisco is 40-26 in its last 66 games after three or more consecutive home games. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball for the Giants and hopes to continue his decent start to the season as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts to post a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. In two home starts, he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with the Giants winning both of those games. Kenta Maeda counters for Los Angeles and he is coming off one of his worst career outings. He allowed six runs on seven hits in four innings against the Cubs and he now has a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts including a 7.53 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in three road starts. He has a 4.58 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Giants while going 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances in San Francisco. Here, we play on National League home teams with an on base percentage of .300 or worse on the season while batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 156-106 (60 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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04-26-19 | Angels v. Royals +111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Angels salvaged the final game against the Yankees last night with an 11-5 win and temporarily ended a 1-9 run. The Royals are back home following a 10-game roadtrip where they went just 3-7 but they are riding a three-game home winning streak. Danny Duffy was cleared for his big-league return earlier in the week after striking out seven in 5.1 scoreless innings in his rehab start for Double-A Northwest Arkansas on Saturday. In three career home starts against the Angels, he has a 2.37 ERA with all three starts being quality outings and the Royals winning all three of those. Tyler Skaggs has struggled in two road starts, posing a 6.23 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and this will be his first start since April 12 after going on the injury list with an ankle injury. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals |
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04-25-19 | Braves v. Reds -134 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Cincinnati held on for a 7-6 win in this series opener before being shut down last night 3-1 behind a solid start from Mike Soroka for the Braves plus 3.1 innings of no-hit baseball from the bullpen. The Reds are now 5-2 in their last seven home games and send their ace to the hill tonight to win this series. The Braves have been an early disappointment as they are just 12-11 after winning the division last season as the pitching has been a major letdown with a 4.57 ERA, fourth worst in the National League. Julio Teheran has been a big part of that as he has a 5.61 ERA through five starts including an 8.59 ERA in three road outings. Luis Castillo has been just the opposite as he has allowed two runs or less in all five of his starts for a 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, second and third respectively in the National League. This should come as no surprise as he posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts after the break last season. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -115 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Pirates have lost the first two games of this series and three straight overall as the offense has hit a wall by scoring just seven runs total during this skid. Pittsburgh was not necessarily lighting it up before that but had been producing much more consistently. The Pirates are now a game out in the National League Central and they will bank on their pitching against tonight while the offense has a good chance to bust out. Pittsburgh leads the National League with a 2.97 team ERA and it sends Jordan Lyles to the hill and he has been awesome. He has allowed one run or less in all three of his starts to post a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with Pittsburgh winning all three games. Arizona is now 6-2 on this current roadtrip to move two games over .500 overall and it trails the Dodgers by a game and a half in the National League West. Merrill Kelly opened his Major League career with a pair of quality outings but he has struggled in his last two starts, allowing seven runs over 8.2 innings. He brings in a 5.59 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in two road starts. The Diamondbacks are 3-9 in their last 12 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Pirates are 7-1 in their last eight games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-22-19 | Brewers +142 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-13 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. This is already the third series of the season between the Brewers and Cardinals, with the first two taking place in Milwaukee, both series won by the home team. St. Louis remains home after a series win over the Mets and it now is tied with the Brewers for second place in the National League Central, one game behind the Pirates. Milwaukee is catching a very good price here mainly because it is starting a pitcher making his Major League debut but that does not guarantee a Cardinals win. Adrian Houser got the call for tonight and for good reason. Houser has made three starts for San Antonio and owns a 1.10 ERA. He has worked 16.1 innings, managed 18 strikeouts, walked three, and the only runs he has allowed have come off a pair of solo homers. Jack Flaherty counters for St. Louis and he has been inconsistent through four starts with the two worst coming against the Brewers where he has an 11.57 ERA over just seven innings combined. 10* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-21-19 | Braves v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Cleveland and Atlanta split a pair of games yesterday with the Indians taking Game One and the Braves taking Game Two as they rallied from a 7-0 deficit after two innings including scoring nine runs in the top of the ninth inning to win 8-7. Cleveland looks to win the series tonight and improve upon its 6-2 record at home and make up for that disaster last night. Both starters are off to fantastic starts with Max Fried posting a 0.92 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three starts and Shane Bieber posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.81 WHIP through his first three starts. Bieber is in better position tonight as his falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on-base percentage of .320 or less against a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.55 or worse, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 48-20 (70.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Cleveland Indians |
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04-19-19 | Mariners v. Angels -115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle won the first game of this series 11-10 last night after nearly blowing a 10-2 lead to send the Angels to their fourth straight loss. Los Angels is now 8-11 and in last place in the American League West but most of the damage has come on the road where it is 2-9 compared to 6-2 at home, with the six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday. Seattle is now tied with Houston atop the division as its 9-1 road record is the best in baseball but we expect the seven-game run to end tonight. Marco Gonzales is making his sixth start and while he has been effective, he has not been overly dominating and this will be just his second true road start after posting a 4.33 ERA in 15 road starts last season. Felix Pena counters for the Angels and after a rough first outing against Oakland, he has been good in his last two starts despite being on a short leash. The Angels are 4-0 in his last four home starts. 10* (926) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-17-19 | Indians v. Mariners +120 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After a red hot 13-2 start to the season, the Mariners have cooled off with five straight losses and they look to salvage the final game of this homestand before hitting the road for a six-game trek. Cleveland has won two straight games after getting swept in Kansas City and it has been a shaky start for the favorites to win the American League Central. Erik Swanson will be making his first career start today in place of injured Wade LeBlanc. Swanson, who came to Seattle as part of the James Paxton trade with the New York Yankees, threw two innings of relief in his debut Thursday in Kansas City. He allowed two earned runs on three hits, while walking two and striking out four and while that stat line is not great, he got his opening jitters out of the way. Carlos Carrasco will be making his fourth start of the season and after a solid outing against Toronto in his second start, he was lit up for six runs on six hits in just two-thirds of an inning last time out against the Royals. He allowed nine runs in 8.2 innings against the Mariners in two starts last season. 10* (918) Seattle Mariners |
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04-16-19 | Astros v. A's +145 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Astros have won nine straight games including a three-game sweep in Seattle over the weekend and they have taken over the lead in the American League West over Seattle which has cooled off after a huge start to the season. Oakland had a four-game winning streak snapped with a loss in Texas on Sunday which came on the heels of a four-game losing streak to open its nine-game roadtrip. Oakland has won five of its last six home games as it has been dominant with its pitching, allowing just 12 runs during that six-game stretch. The A's send Marco Estrada to the hill as he has been solid at home with a 1.59 ERA in two starts but the Oakland bullpen has let him down as he has failed to pick up a win as the A's are 0-2 in those games. Colin McHugh counters for the Astros and he has been in great form through four starts, allowing three runs or less in each. He has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 games, including 12 starts, against the A's in his career. But most of that success has come at home as he's just 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA in six appearances, four as a starter, in Oakland. 10* (976) Oakland A's |
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04-15-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -131 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. We played against Milwaukee yesterday in Los Angeles as the Brewers had a two-game winning streak snapped but it remains in first place in the National League Central by a half-game over the Cardinals. The Brewers return home where they are 5-2 and hosting the Cardinals for a second time in the early part of the season. The Milwaukee starting pitching has been a liability thus far but we think it turns around against a struggling Cardinals offense. St. Louis has won six of its last seven games to move to within a half-game of the Brewers and remain a half-game ahead of the Pirates. Going back, the Brewers are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a loss. Freddy Peralta looks to snap out of his early season funk as he was shelled by the Angels last time out, allowing seven runs in just 3.1 innings. That came after a gem against the Reds where he tossed eight scoreless innings and allowed just two hits while striking out 11 and walking none. That shows what he is capable of after a great first half last season. Dakota Hudson has a 2.79 ERA in his first two starts but he has a WHIP of 2.07 which is a better indication of how he is really pitching. He allowed four runs on seven hits, including three home runs, in just 4.1 innings in his first start against the Brewers. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -137 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Despite six straight losses to fall to 8-8 on the season, the Dodgers still lead the National League in scoring differential at +16. The offense has been held in check during this skid as Los Angeles is averaging just 3.0 rpg after averaging 10.5 rpg through its first eight games. Th e power is still there as the Dodgers have homered in 28 straight home games, dating to Aug. 21, which is second-most in MLB history. The Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series. The Brewers sit atop the National League Central Division by a game and a half over the Cardinals yet they have been kind of the opposite of Los Angeles as they are five games over .500 but are at 0 in scoring differential. Jhoulys Chacin is coming off his first quality start of the season but it was not a great outing as he allowed two home runs, the second time he has done that in three starts. Ross Stripling is coming off his worst start of the season which came on the road after posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first two starts which both came at home. 10* (962) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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04-12-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -140 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot .After a red hot start to the season, the Dodgers were swept in St. Louis to start the week which snapped a five-game winning streak. Los Angeles returns home where it is 5-2 with both losses coming by a combined three runs and going back, the Dodgers are 18-7 in their last 25 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Milwaukee is now tied with the Cardinals for first place in the National League Central after suffering its third straight loss on Wednesday while getting swept against the Angels. The Brewers were 3-0 on the road prior to this but the first series came against the Reds and since then, the pitching has been disastrous by allowing 8.0 rpg over their last six games. We played against Corbin Burnes in his last start as he was shelled against the Cubs, allowing seven runs in five innings which came after a decent start in his Major League opener against the Cardinals. This will be his first ever road start and it could not come at a worse time. Julio Urias is also making his third start after being limited to just 77 and 74 pitches in his first two starts. He has been great at home with a 3.05 ERA in 14 career games. 10* (960) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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04-10-19 | Yankees +104 v. Astros | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have dropped two straight games to fall back under .500 for the season and they currently sit 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the American League East. Houston meanwhile has won five straight games, all coming at home and because of the opposing records, we are catching great value with the Yankees. The Astros are 4-0 this season in one run games so they have been pretty fortunate. The Yankees are 40-11 in their last 51 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while the Astros are 2-5 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. That starter in question tonight is James Paxton who will work on extended rest in what will be his third start for the Yankees after facing Baltimore twice. He recorded nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings in his previous appearance. Paxton is 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA over 12 career starts against the Astros and won all four starts against Houston last season while pitching for the Mariners. Colin McHugh counters for Houston and he is coming off a quality outing in his last start. He is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA over five career appearances (three starts) against the Yankees. Here, we play against home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that averages less than 2.75 innings per game and with a WHIP under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (969) New York Yankees |
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04-09-19 | Braves v. Rockies -120 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. This is a good spot for Colorado to bounce back from what has been a rough start to the season. The Rockies lost 8-6 last night which was the fourth straight loss and they have dropped eight of their past nine games to fall five games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. It is still very early and Colorado is catching a great price tonight to notch its first home win of the season. The Braves opened the season by getting swept against the Phillies but have gone on to win six of their last seven games including their first road win on the season last night. They hand the ball to Max Fried who after two relief appearances, made his first start last Thursday against the Cubs and was outstanding as he allowed just one hit and no runs over six innings. This will be his first taste of Coors Field, however. Colorado counters with German Marquez who has opened the season with a pair of quality outings on the road and he is responsible for two of the three total wins for the Rockies. Marquez has been consistently good since the 2018 All-Star Game as he is 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 106 innings since then, striking out 138 while walking only 26. Here, we play on National League home teams with an on base percentage of .300 or worse, after allowing eight runs or more in two straight games. This situation is 39-16 (70.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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04-08-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +104 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers are off to an 8-2 start following a five-game winning streak that included a weekend three-game sweep at Coors Field where the offense erupted for 29 runs. Los Angeles leads baseball with the best average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage so the fact it is favored here should be no surprise as well as the public being all over them. The Cardinals salvaged the series finale with a 4-1 win over the Padres after dropping the first two games. They were held in check by the Padres pitching and going back, St. Louis is 16-4 in its last 20 games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. We played against Miles Mikolas in his opening start as he lost at Milwaukee and he followed that up with a better start at Pittsburgh. He is now back home for the first time this season where he posted a 2.17 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 16 starts last season. Hyun-Jin Ryu is off to a solid start with a 2.08 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through two starts but those came at home and he has been less effective on the road throughout his career. While the Dodgers offense has been solid, they actually fall into a contrarian situation where we play against National League teams with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games. This situation is 44-16 (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves -145 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. A two-run home run in the ninth inning sent Miami to a 4-2 victory over the Braves on Saturday but we expect some redemption on Sunday. The Marlins broke their four-game losing streak and snapped Atlanta's four-game winning streak. Miami also ended Atlanta's nine-game home winning streak dating back to last season and snapped the Braves' nine-game head-to-head winning streak against the Marlins. After allowing 23 runs in a three-game sweep against the Phillies, Atlanta has allowed just 12 runs over its last five games and the streak was started by Sean Newcomb who did not allow a run in his opening start. He went just four innings as he logged 91 pitches against the Cubs but he has an excellent matchup here as in four starts against Miami last season, he went 4-0 with a 0.75 ER and 1.00 WHIP. Caleb Smith counters for the Marlins and he is coming off a solid opening start against the Mets but had to settle for a no-decision. This is also a good matchup for Atlanta which is the best hitting team in baseball against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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04-06-19 | Cubs +118 v. Brewers | Top | 14-8 | Win | 118 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We lost with the Cubs last night as they fell behind big early and made two rallies only to fall short. Jose Quintana was a huge disappointment as the pitching continues to struggle but the offense remains hot despite losing six straight games. Chicago leads baseball with a .307 average and its 46 runs are tied for fifth most but it has not been enough. Milwaukee meanwhile has won six straight games to maintain its three-game lead in the National League Central as the offense scored more than five runs for the first time this season. Cole Hamels got lit up for five runs in five innings against Texas in his first start but that came in a very hitter-friendly ballpark and he has a great chance to rebound here as he is 7-3 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 career starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers counter with Corbin Burnes who is making his second start of his young career. He appeared in 30 games as a relief pitcher in 2018, and he gave up four runs in five innings in his starting debut March 31 against the Cardinals. The Cubs have a great opportunity to light it up again and get rid of this losing streak. 10* (957) Chicago Cubs |
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04-05-19 | Mariners v. White Sox +116 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 116 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Friday Afternoon Dominator. The White Sox were scheduled for their home opener yesterday but it was rained out well in advance and they will get that opportunity on Friday. Chicago opened with a pair of losses in Kansas City but has won two of its last three games including an 8-3 win in Cleveland in it most recent game on Wednesday. Seattle is the surprise through the first week of the season as it is off to a 7-1 start that included a pair of wins over Oakland in Japan and then took three of four against the Red Sox followed by a pair of wins over the Angels to complete a 5-1 homestand. Yusei Kikuchi has already made two starts, the latest coming against Boston where he tossed a quality outing but was fortunate more damage was not done as the two runs he allowed were two solo home runs. This is his first true road start and it will be his first ever start in cold weather as temperatures are supposed to remain in the 40s throughout the afternoon. Reynaldo Lopez counters for the White Sox and he is coming off a rough opening start but we can expect a bounce back here as he posted a 3.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 15 home starts last season. 10* (922) Chicago White Sox |
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04-04-19 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Texas is off to a surprisingly good 4-2 with series wins over World Series contenders the Astros and Cubs. Both of those series came at home though and the Rangers hit the road for the first time this season. Meanwhile, the Angels had a much needed day off yesterday after losing five of six games to open the season while averaging a mere 2.2 rpg in the process. The pitching has kept them in games, especially the bullpen where its 1.47 ERA is second best in baseball. A return home is exactly what is needed. While Matt Harvey was not lights out in his Angels debut, he was effective and recorded a quality start going six innings allowing only two runs on four hits, but he got a no-decision. He made only bad mistake which came in the sixth inning when Khris Davis hit a two-run home run. Injuries have derailed what could have been a great career but pitching in warm weather will help him and after a drop in his velocity, it is back up to where it was back in 2015. Edinson Volquez counters for the Rangers and he was tagged for four runs on six hits and four walk in four innings in his opening start. It was his first since July of 2017 as he is back following Tommy John surgery. 10* (970) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-03-19 | Red Sox -138 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Boston offense started the season lighting it up as it averaged 6.0 rpg through its first four games but has been shut out in consecutive games for the first time since 2015. The Red Sox are tied with the Angels for the worst record in baseball so the World Series hangover is firmly in place but it is just a matter of time they get back to their winning ways. Oakland has won four straight games after a 1-3 start and the pitching has been the story. They have allowed a total of three runs over the four-game winning streak and in their five wins overall, they have allowed just those three runs. Nathan Eovaldi will be making his second start of the season and while we won by backing him in his season opener, it was not because of him. He allowed six runs over five innings as the long ball did him in. He allowed three home runs after allowing the same amount over 54 innings with the Red sox last season so we should expect a bounce back here. Marco Estrada had an excellent two starts as he has allowed just two runs in 11 innings but both games resulted in losses. Facing Boston is not a good thing as he posted a 7.98 ERA in three starts against them last season. 10* (925) Boston Red Sox |
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04-02-19 | Mets v. Marlins +123 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Mets are off to a 3-1 start largely in part to an offense that has averaged 6.3 rpg but we expect that offense to slow down tonight after scoring seven runs in the series opener on Monday. That offense will likely be needed with Jason Vargas taking the hill for his first start of the season. He had an ugly season in New York last year as he posted a 5.77 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and he is coming off an average spring where he allowed nine runs over 18 innings. Since his torrid start to the 2017 season that landed him in the All-Star game, he owns a 6.04 ERA over his last 35 starts. Miami is not expected to do much this season but a 2-2 series split against Colorado to open the season was a positive for sure prior to the 7-3 loss last night. Jose Urena was the opening day starter and while he had a rough outing, that was against the potent Rockies and we can expect him to settle in here. He has put together solid back-to-back seasons, posting a 3.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 65 games and the Mets have been a good target as he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 14 games including 10 starts. 10* (956) Miami Marlins |
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04-01-19 | Brewers v. Reds +102 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Pirates knocked off the Reds 5-0 on Sunday for their first win, earning a split of their rain-abbreviated season-opening series. Cincinnati took the season opener with a 5-3 victory before a day off Friday and a rainout on Saturday which gives the Reds a starting pitching advantage with the middle of their rotation compared to the bottom of the rotation for the Brewers. Milwaukee took three of four games against the Cardinals at home mostly in part to Christian Yelich who homered in all four games. Milwaukee sends Zach Davies to the hill who won the fifth spot in the rotation despite an awful spring. After going 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2017, he spent the bulk of last season on the DL with rotator cuff inflammation and made just one start. Tanner Roark counters for the Reds who has a career 3.59 ERA entering his seventh season, the first six with the National. Against the Brewers, he is 4-2 in eight games, seven starts, with a 2.68 ERA. In 2018, he was 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA against Milwaukee. The Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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03-31-19 | Red Sox -138 v. Mariners | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -138 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. For a second straight game, Boston scored three runs in the top of the ninth inning but unlike winning by a run on Friday, the Red Sox lost by a run last night. They are now 1-2 to open the season and after playing on them Friday off a loss, we will do the same here. The pitching has been abysmal as Boston has allowed 24 runs in three games and its 7.92 ERA is fourth worst in baseball. Rick Porcello looks to stop the bleeding and he should be able to as he has a 3.44 ERA in five starts against Seattle since coming to Boston and he is coming off a very solid spring. The same cannot be said for Wade LeBlanc who posted a 5.73 ERA during spring training over 11 innings. While the season may still be young, Boston has the second most at-bats against left-handed pitching with 59 and has the third best average among teams with at least 30 at-bats and that familiarity will pay off today. 10* (977) Boston Red Sox |
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03-30-19 | Giants +119 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 119 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Giants are off to a 0-2 start and while the pitching has been solid by allowing just six runs, the offense has done nothing by plating only one run in the two games. The game ended with Gerardo Parra and Brandon Belt both screaming at home-plate umpire Lance Barksdale over questionable called third strikes that left the bases loaded and the Giants winless. The offense can break out tonight however against Nick Margevicius who is making his Major League debut after a fairly average spring. The win marked the first time since 2011 that the Padres opened the season with two straight wins and they face Dereck Rodriguez who had a sensational rookie season and dominated the Padres in both starts, posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over 14 innings. 10* (911) San Francisco Giants |
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03-29-19 | Red Sox -136 v. Mariners | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The defending World Series Champion Red Sox were unable to get off to a winning start as Chris Sale was shelled for seven runs on six hits including three home runs in just three innings. They will send out Nathan Eovaldi tonight who pitched only seven innings in the spring but the main focus was to keep him healthy. His performance is the World Series run was a huge reason they even won it all, pitching several times on short rest out of the pen and even making a whole start in extra innings at one point. Seattle is off to a 3-0 start after last night and a pair of wins in Japan to start the season last week. The Mariners turn to Yusei Kikuchi who will be making his second start of the season after tossing 4.2 average innings against Oakland. This is a good historic bounce back spot for Boston as the Red Sox are 45-19 in their last 64 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (965) Boston Red Sox |
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03-28-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -101 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Opening Day Sweet Spot. Milwaukee will be out for another postseason run following a near miss last season, falling one game shy of a trip to the World Series. Unfinished business has been the theme of the offseason and we expect the Brewers to come out strong which we expect to happen opening day at a ridiculously small price. The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing season last year where they finished third in the National League Central and will be chasing once again. The lineup improved with Paul Goldschmidt coming over from Arizona and while the rotation is stable, it is still a concern when Miles Mikolas is your opening day starter and favored on the road on top of it against a team that won 96 regular season games and 102 in total. 10* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-28-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Red Sox pulled off a stunning comeback last night to take a commanding 3-1 lead over Los Angeles and they look to clinch their fourth World Series since 2004. While history is on their side to take it home, they do not have a decidedly big edge tonight. Of the previous 47 times a World Series has been 3-1, the leading team has won the Series 40 times (85.1 percent) but they have won Game Five only 26 times (55.3 percent). With their backs against the wall, the Dodgers will pull out all of the stops tonight to send this series back to Boston and we are getting a great price. In somewhat of a surprising move, Alex Cora named David Price the starter for Game Five. Price will be making the start on three days of rest and inside of that, he made a relief appearance in Game Three, albeit just two-thirds of an inning but he did allow a hit and a walk over 13 pitches. He has made five appearances this postseason, including four starts, going 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and while he pitched well against the Dodgers in Game Two, he should be seeing a different lineup this time around. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sat his three top home run hitters and was scrutinized for it. Clayton Kershaw has been a Jekyll and Hyde throughout his postseason career. He allowed five runs in four-plus innings in Game One in Boston which was his second awful postseason start on the road. Pitching at home has been a different story though as he has allowed just run in two starts over 15 innings. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Red Sox up 2-0 in the World Series with a lot of questions surrounding how the Dodgers went about the first two games in Boston. The Dodgers were at a big disadvantage as they faced lefties both times which took their powerful left-handed bats out of the lineup which manager Dave Roberts has been scrutinized for. Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson, the top three home run hitters on the teams with a combined 85 home runs during the regular season, all had just three at-bats during the first two games but the lineup will be stacked against right-hander Rick Porcello. The Red Sox will not back down tonight on the road as they have won all five playoff games they have played away from Fenway Park, clinching the American League Division Series at New York and celebrating an American League title at Houston. Overall, they are 26 games above .500 on the road but that is helping keep this line within reason. Porcello pitched well on the road against the Yankees, although he went just five innings but was lit up for four runs in four innings against the Astros where he allowed two home runs. That is a problem as his 27 home runs allowed during the regular season were the 14th most in baseball. Walker Buehler counters for Los Angeles, who has been dominant at home, and while there is pressure, he is not going to feel it. The Dodgers trusted him to start Game 163, a tiebreaker to decide the National League West against the Rockies, and they won. And they trusted him to start Game Seven of the NLCS, and they won that too. Here, we play on National League home favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and coming off a game where they had four or fewer hits going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 50-13 (79.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. With the Red Sox winning Game One, many will be backing the Dodgers in Game Two, especially those that thought they could sneak out a win last night, but this Boston team is simply too strong at Fenway Park. Boston has owned National League teams at home over the years and it is no accident. Going back to 2015, the Red Sox are an MLB-best 32-8 at Fenway Park against National League teams, including 8-3 this season after last night. Boston's +84 run differential dwarfs that of the closest team, the Astros, at +47. The uniqueness of the park makes a big difference as every Dodger that played in the outfield last night had not played there before. It will be up to David Price to continue to keep the postseason demons away as he is coming off a gem against the Astros where he allowed no runs on three hits in six innings while striking out nine and walking none. His command was spot on as he was able to change speeds to keep the Astros off balance and that is when he is at his best as opposed to trying to blow fastballs by everybody. The Red Sox are 21-6 in his last 27 home starts. The Dodgers are taking a chance with Hyun-Jin Ryu as he has not fared well on the road this season with a 4.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight starts. He has a 1.15 ERA at home, but it was decided he would get the Game Two start on the road, even though he had an 8.59 ERA in two road starts against the Brewers in the NLCS. The Dodgers are 2-12 in his last 14 road starts against teams with a winning record. Boston is now 17-4 in its last 21 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg while going 9-0 in its last eight games against National League starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. The same situation from last night is in play as we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing 4.0 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent outscoring opponents by 1.0 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 104-41 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Boston Red Sox |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -143 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The World Series opens with a classic pitching duel pitting the two best lefties in the game squaring off and based on splits, the Red Sox have the significant edge. Boston finished the regular season 57-24 at home which was the best home record in baseball and followed that up with an average 2-2 mark at Fenway Park to open the postseason. The Red Sox are hitting .284 during the postseason against left-handed pitching while the Dodgers are hitting just .207. Boston is 16-4 in its last 20 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg while going 8-0 in its last eight games against National League starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Chris Sale gets the Game One start and after an impressive showing against the Yankees in Game One of the ALDS, his velocity and command were lacking in his no-decision in Game One in the ALCS against the Astros. It is safe to say that he was bothered by the stomach virus that kept him out for the rest of the series and now he some in rested and fresh. He made 11 starts on five or more days' of rest during the regular season, going 6-2 with a 1.41 ERA. Clayton Kershaw will be making his first ever start at Fenway Park and he could be in for a tough inaugural outing. He is coming off a solid outing against the Brewers in his last start but it is no secret he had had his postseason struggles. He has a 4.09 ERA and has allowed 19 home runs over 22 starts. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing 4.0 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent outscoring opponents by 1.0 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 103-41 (71.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Boston Red Sox |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +108 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Brewers put up four first inning runs last night and cruised to an easy victory to force a Game Seven in this NLCS. Wade Miley gave them what they needed which was an extended outing and the Milwaukee bullpen is in great shape for tonight. The Dodgers are 2-3 on the road in the postseason while Milwaukee is 4-1 at home yet Los Angeles comes in as the favorite, albeit slight, as the public will again be on the road team. This is a rematch of the Game Three pitching matchup that was won by the Brewers 4-0 and that was in Los Angeles. Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for Milwaukee and he will likely be on a short leash with the magnitude of what is at stake coupled with the strong Milwaukee bullpen. But, he might not get in early trouble as he has been outstanding as he has not allowed a run across 10.1 innings this October, the workload split between two starts. He shut out the Dodgers in 5.1 innings in his last outing which was impressive considering he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings there just two months prior. Still, he could get an early hook as the Brewers may turn to Josh Hader which is not a bad thing at all. Walker Buehler has incredible stuff but the postseason pressure has mounted and it will be even more so in Game Seven that determines a trip to the World Series. He struggled against Milwaukee at home where he is most comfortable as four of his innings were scoreless, but he also allowed four extra-base hits and all factored in the scoring. He struggled in Atlanta in his previous start and he has now allowed nine runs in 12 innings in the postseason. 10* (962) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +103 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 103 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. This has been a very even NLCS with the Dodgers having gotten the majority of the breaks but certainly nothing substantial. Based on this line, Milwaukee is getting no credit for its home field where it is 54-31 on the season and its 51 home wins were tied with the Cubs for most in the National League. Pitching has not been the problem for the Brewers in this series. Their starters have a 1.29 ERA through the first five games against the Dodgers although that is in limited action but overall, Brewers pitchers have a 3.02 ERA and a .220 average against, and the Dodgers have a 2.81 ERA and a .219 average against so it is pretty even. The difference has been in the clutch which can easily shift. Los Angeles is 10-for-43 with runners in scoring position and an .807 OPS after the sixth inning compared to the Brewers which are 5-for-35 with runners in scoring position and a .592 OPS after the sixth inning. With two one-run losses, Milwaukee could easily be up 3-2 in this series instead of needing to win the final two games to make it to the World Series. Wade Miley will be making his second straight start after getting pulled in Game Five after facing one batter where he issued a walk. That was the plan and now he will be asked to stretch it out. When allowed to go longer, Miley has been great this October as he is unscored upon across 10.1 innings, including 5.2 innings against the Dodgers in Game Two. Hyun-Jin Ryu was average in Game Two, allowing six hits and two runs in 4.1 innings. He has not been great on the road in limited action all season as he has a 3.66 ERA in 32 innings where he has allowed seven home runs. The Dodgers are 2-11 in his last 13 road starts against teams with a winning record while the Brewers are 8-0 in their last eight games following an off day. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -146 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Boston reclaimed home field advantage with an 8-2 win on Tuesday behind a gem from Nathan Eovaldi. Now it is up to the Astros to take home field back and most importantly, avoid a 3-1 hole heading into Game Five on Thursday. The game was close through seven innings, but the Red Sox posted five runs in the eighth inning, breaking it open and seizing back the momentum with two straight wins. The Astros loss at home in Game Three was only their second in their past 12 playoff games at Minute Maid Park since the start of last season. The Astros are 7-0 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Charlie Morton has been the forgotten man in this deep Astros rotation but he has a chance to show what he is capable of tonight. He pitched in the regular-season finale against the Orioles and worked just three innings by design, capping an odd final month that saw him limited to 15 innings in four starts because of lingering right shoulder discomfort. This time of year, rest is your best friend and Morton has plenty of it. He is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 16 home starts. Rick Porcello has made one start and two relief appearances and he has been solid, allowing just one run over 6.2 innings but he has struck out only three. He has pitched three times against the Astros this season, going 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Here, we play against road underdogs with a moneyline of +100 to +150 with a winning percentage of .620 or better after having won three of their last four games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 173-88 (66.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Houston Astros |
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10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers failed to come through for us last night as they now have given home field advantage back to the Brewers after getting shut out 4-0. The offense had been rolling along and the key tonight for Los Angeles is to get out to a strong early start since it does have a significant pitching edge tonight. The Dodgers have been shutout four times since May 8th and they have bounced with a win in their next game all four times, averaging 5.5 rpg in the process. Additionally, the Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee has lost only once September 19th so stepping in front of the Brewers has not been wise of late but they are going a different route tonight. The Brewers started Gio Gonzalez to open the series and he made an abbreviated start in Game One at Miller Park, when he pitched two innings and allowed only a homer to Manny Machado. He is now going back out on three-days rest and he has not pitched on short rest since his rookie season in 2008. The Dodgers counter with Rich Hill who is coming off a rare wild outing as he faced the Braves in Atlanta in Game Four of the NLDS and walked five in 4.1 innings but managed to allowed just two runs. He should be more comfortable at home and going back, he has allowed one run in 11 innings with 14 strikeouts in two career NLCS starts. Additionally, he allowed two runs in 12 innings over two starts against the Brewers, both resulting in identical 6-4 Los Angeles victories. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -173 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers avoided a 2-0 hole as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit with two runs in each of the seventh and eighth innings and they now head back home with home field advantage on their side. They have a chance to a take some control of the series with a win tonight and they clearly have the momentum from snapping the Brewers 12-game losing streak. The Dodgers are 9-0 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Jhoulys Chacin had a really solid season and it spilled into the postseason as he tossed five shutout innings against the Brewers in Game Three of the NLDS. During the regular season, he posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 35 starts but this could be a brutal spot for him tonight. Not only is he facing the potent Dodgers offense, but it is the same offense that rocked him for nine runs in just 4.1 innings as he allowed three home runs. With that in the back of his head, that could be a cause for real concern. And it just was not a one-time thing as when he was with the Padres last season, he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings in a start at Dodger Stadium. Walker Buehler counters for Los Angeles and he was even better with a 2.62 ERA AND 0.96 whip IN 24 GAMES. His first postseason start did not go well as he allowed five runs in five innings in Atlanta but he shut out the Rockies for 6.2 innings in the play-in game and while that was not considered the postseason, it was essentially a playoff game. At home this season, he had a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 13 games. Here, we play against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 59-12 (83.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-13-18 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Houston was expected to be challenged by Cleveland in the ALDS but that was hardly the case as the Astros swept the Indians in three games by a combined score of 21-6. While they are slight underdogs in Game One, they are favored to win this series and rightfully so despite not having home field advantage as they finished five games behind the Red Sox. Boston has the home field advantage on most days but that is not the case tonight as its 57-24 record at Fenway Park is matched by the 57-24 record on the road by the Astros. The Astros are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and they took two of three here back in September. This is the same pitching matchup we saw in Game One of the 2017 ALDS and while the venue is different, we expect the Astros to again take the opener. Justin Verlander gets the ball for Houston and the Astros could not be in better shape. He stymied the Indians for five innings in Game One before the bullpen was called upon as he retired 15 of the first 16 batters he faced and finished with seven strikeouts. His postseason track record is outstanding and he has been outstanding since 2013, going 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). Chris Sale counters for Boston and something just does not seem right. Health and stamina were concerns heading into the playoffs, as left shoulder inflammation limited him to 17 innings from July 28 through the end of the regular season. He was decent in his start against the Yankees in the ALDS but far from his dominant self and the Astros have his number. He has allowed 11 runs in 11 innings in two starts since last season including an awful effort in the ALDS opening game. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 and .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) Houston Astros |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 144 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee finished the regular season four games better than the Dodgers, stormed through the NLDS with three straight wins on top of eliminating the Cubs in Game 163 and their current winning streak stands at 11 straight games yet they are getting no respect here. The betting public is all over the Dodgers in Game One with two-thirds of the tickets on their side so Milwaukee is catching a fantastic number at home. The Brewers quietly went 51-30 at home, the best home record in the National League, and they are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning road record. The story all season for the Brewers has been their bullpen and rightfully so. Milwaukee's 3.47 ERA in relief was second in the National League only to the Cubs. The bullpen went 2-0 with a save and a 1.17 ERA in the three-game Division Series sweep over Colorado. But Gio Gonzalez is getting overshadowed here in what is a great spot. It has been quite a rebound since being acquired in a deal with the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts with Milwaukee. Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is the reason the Dodgers are big road favorites and he has been solid since his return from the disabled list. But the postseason demons still linger. While Kershaw has thrown 12 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason dating back to last year's World Series, he is 2-4 with a 4.65 ERA in five career starts in the NLCS. Here, we play on home underdogs after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, in October games. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Divisional Series rounds have been nothing short of duds as we have seen a pair of sweeps and a near sweep with the Dodgers and it is up to the Yankees to finally have one go the distance. They were trounced last night as the Red Sox erupted for 16 runs on 18 hits as they got to every New York pitcher that entered the game as all six arms allowed at least one earned run and walked at least two. This included the use of catcher Austin Romine in the ninth inning which was a smart move to preserve pitchers for tonight. The Boston highlight was Brock Holt hitting for the first cycle in postseason history and the Yankees probably took offense to it by leaving him in as he hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning to make history. C.C. Sabathia will try to repress the Boston offense and he has a good chance to do just that as the Red Sox are hitting just .250 against left-handed pitching which is middle of the pack and they have hit just 37 home runs which is ninth lowest in baseball. Sabathia has been solid at home with a 3.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Rick Porcello counters for Boston and has been decent all season but this is not a good time or place. He is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four postseason starts and while he was tremendous against the Yankees this season, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts, the ERA at home is 0.50 in three starts and 8.44 ERA in the one start in New York. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. It is do or die for Cleveland which lost the first two games of this ALDS as the offense was handcuffed by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. A return home should help that where Cleveland finished 49-32 during the regular season and hit .267 which was second best in the American League behind Boston. Houston possessed the best road record in baseball at 57-24 so the challenge for Cleveland to stay alive will not be easy but the price reflects that. Houston has just three wins in their last 11 playoff road games. Dallas Keuchel used to be the ace of this staff but he has taken a step back. After winning the Cy Young in 2015, he followed that up with a poor 2016 and after a bounce back last season, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHP which are good by most standards but not his. His home/road and day/night splits are very similar but he has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA in his last five road starts and he comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last three starts overall. He faced Cleveland twice this season and was average with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Mike Clevinger has been on a great run as he has a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the All Star Break, covering 13 starts. He made 13 daytime starts as well and posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Astros tagged him for eight runs in 11.2 innings, both of those were early in the season in back-to-back starts in May. The Indians are 6-0 in his last six home starts. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 168-81 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -152 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We played on Colorado on Friday and unfortunately, a solid performance from Tyler Anderson was ruined by the offense that has suddenly gone ice cold. The Rockies have scored just six runs over their last four games but all of those games have come on the road and we know what this offense is capable of at home where it leads all of baseball in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. We expected a line move here after opening at -140 and it did go up but not to a point where it is unplayable as Colorado looks to avoid elimination. Milwaukee remains the hottest team in the postseason a it has reeled off 10 consecutive wins as both offense and pitching have been spot on. The Brewers are headed to a tough spot however based on venue and matchup as they will be facing one of the hottest starting pitchers in all of baseball. German Marquez was not at his finest in Los Angeles last time out but it was just two pitches that cost him, snapping a 12-game quality start streak. While going back to Coors Field for some pitchers is not a good thing, it is for Marquez as he has posted a 1.90 ERA there since July over seven starts. Wade Miley has had a breakout season but he is leaking some oil down the stretch as he has posted a 4.24 ERA over his last four starts and gets the tough task of facing Colorado at the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 67-25 (72.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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10-05-18 | Rockies +145 v. Brewers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Milwaukee took Game One of this NLDS yesterday on a walk-off single after blowing a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning and the Brewers remain the hottest of all teams still playing with nine straight wins. The offense led the way toward the end of the regular season but the pitching has carried Milwaukee of late as it has allowed just three runs over the last three games and the bullpen start on Thursday proved to be the right move. The Rockies finished with only four hits yesterday and they have scored only six runs over the last three games since ending the regular season tied with the Dodgers in the National League West. Fatigue and travel can be blamed for the lack of production but an offense of this caliber cannot be kept down for long and Friday presents a great opportunity to bust out. Jhoulys Chacin has had a great season and he has been efficient of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight games. The issue here is that since September, he has not gotten out of the sixth inning of any of his six starts which poses a problem for the bullpen tat was utilized a great deal yesterday. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games against right-handed starters and it is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The backend of the rotation is in play again with Tyler Anderson getting the ball today but he has been dealing of late with a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. While he has a 5.02 ERA on the road for the season, he has a 1.20 WHIP to go along with that which shows he has been pitching better than the ERA indicates and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he will be fine. Look for the Rockies to tie this series up before heading home for Game Three on Sunday. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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