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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-29-20 | Cubs v. Reds -109 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After opening the season with a win over Detroit, the Reds have dropped four straight games including the first two in this series against Chicago. The pitching has been the detriment as Cincinnati has allowed eight runs in each of the first two games against the Cubs and that should change tonight with Sonny Gray taking the hill. He is coming off a solid opening start where he allowed one run on three hits while striking out nine over six innings. He faced the Cubs five times last season and was dominant, posting a 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 30 innings. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks who is coming off an even more dominating performance as he tossed a three-hit shutout against the Brewers. He struggles against the Reds last season, posting a 5.16 ERA over four starts. 10* (910) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-28-20 | Padres v. Giants +135 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. San Diego is coming off a series win against Arizona by winning three of the four games in the set including a 6-2 win on Monday. The Padres pitching has been outstanding as their 2.25 ERA is good for third in all of baseball. All four of those games were at home however and Petco Park is known as a pitcher park. Zach Davies makes his Padres debut after four decent seasons in Milwaukee where he posted a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, nothing earth shattering. The Giants are making their home opener after splitting four games against the the Dodgers. Jeff Samardzija is coming off his best season as a Giant as he posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 32 starts. He faced San Diego four times last season and had a 3.33 ERA covering 24.1 innings. 10* (980) San Francisco Giants |
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07-27-20 | Cubs v. Reds +107 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Reds won the season opener against the Tigers but dropped the last two games over the weekend. They remain home to take on the Cubs Monday in the start of a four-game set that is already important for divisional purposes in the shortened season. Wade Miley gets the ball for Cincinnati after coming off two solid seasons in Milwaukee and Baltimore. He has a 3.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Cubs. Jon Lester counters for Chicago and he is coming off his worst season in terms of WHIP as he posted a 1.50 which was his worst since his rookie season in 2006. He faced the Reds three times last season and went 0-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. 10* (908) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-24-20 | Brewers v. Cubs -105 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After missing the playoffs last season, the Cubs are near the top to finish in first place in the National League Central. Milwaukee has made the playoffs the last two seasons which is keeping this price down, so we are getting great value with Chicago. Kyle Hendricks takes the hill for Chicago and he is coming off another solid season where he posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 30 starts and he has dominated the Brewers with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 21 career starts. Brandon Woodruff had a solid season but has struggled against the Cubs with a 6.75 ERA and 1.70 ERA in five games. 10* (962) Chicago Cubs |
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10-30-19 | Nationals +125 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The road team has dominated this series with six wins through six games and while many will be chasing the home team, we are riding the trend and the road team will sweep this series. Washington overcame a controversial interference call by taking Game Six behind a sensational effort from Stephen Strasburg and its other ace takes the hill tonight with extra rest. In postseason history, including all series and Wild Card Games, home teams are only 57-60 in winner-take-all games. That includes 19-20 in the World Series, where home teams have lost three straight Game Sevens, most recently the Dodgers to the Astros in 2017. Max Scherzer was scratched from Game Five due to a neck issue but he is back after a cortisone shot. He was good, but not great, in the first game of the series. After yielding a pair of runs in the first inning, Scherzer kept Houston off the board, with seven strikeouts and three walks. He has been better on the road than at home with a 2.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 14 starts with Washington going 10-4. Zack Greinke has been below average at home with a 4.84 ERA through six starts and he has had a rough postseason with a 5.30 ERA in four starts. 10* (913) Washington Nationals |
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10-26-19 | Astros v. Nationals +101 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This is the first time in 23 years that the road team has won the first three game of the World Series and we see that coming to an end tonight. After cashing in with runners in scoring position at seemingly every chance during the first two games, the Nationals bats went cold in Game Three, going 0-10 with runners in scoring position while stranding 12 runners on base. Those bats can come alive early tonight. Jose Urquidy has made two effective relief appearances in the postseason but will make his first career playoff start in this Houston bullpen game. Patrick Corbin gets the ball for the Nationals and he should be in perfect form. He has spent more time pitching in relief than as a starter this month, but in the three days after a scoreless 21-pitch sixth inning in Game One, he has been able to get back to his normal routine. The Nationals went 14-3 in his 17 home starts where he posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The back of the Nationals bullpen is rested and ready after Fernando Rodney, Joe Ross and Wander Suero pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in Game Three. 10* (908) Washington Nationals |
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10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. History is not on the side of the Astros to make an epic comeback as in all postseason series with the 2-3-2 format, teams going down 0-2 at home have come back to win just three of 25 times. Most recently, the 1996 Yankees in the World Series against the Braves. But Houston just needs to take it one game at a time. Washington is off to a surprising 2-0 start in this series and it is the offense that has led the way. The Nationals offense erupted for 12 runs on 14 hits and three homers to carry themselves to victory in Game Two. The Nationals are no doubt red hot right now as with a win on Friday, the Nationals would become the first team to win nine consecutive games in a single postseason. That being said, we expect the Astros bats to come alive. Washington hands the ball to Anibal Sanchez and while he has been solid of late, there is concern. In two starts over 12.2 innings, he has given up just one run on five hits, with 14 strikeouts and three walks, but this will be his first start since Game One of the National League Championship Series on October 11th. Zack Greinke had a rough go of it against Tampa Bay but his last two starts have been solid as he has a 3.48 ERA over 10.1 innings. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 70-34 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (905) Houston Astros |
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10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros -175 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Nationals last night as big underdogs but we will be switching sides tonight in what is essentially a must win game for Houston. History is on the Nationals side as 25 of the last 31 Game One winners have gone on to win the World Series but we cannot count out the Astros, who just lost Game One of the ALCS at home before rebounding to defeat the Yankees. We played against the Astros and Gerrit Cole and the results were as predicted. Cole managed to get through seven innings, but he allowed five runs on eight hits after giving up one run on 10 hits in 22.2 innings across his first three postseason outings. Including the playoffs, he had allowed five or more runs in only two of his previous 36 outings in 2019, and not since May 22 against the White Sox. What this means for Justin Verlander is that he has to maintain his game and not allow the Nationals to take a 2-0 series lead. While his postseason has been up and down, venue has played a role. He has a 1.32 ERA in two home starts compared to a 6.75 ERA in two road starts. Stephen Strasburg has been great all season but like the Nationals last night, we expect the Astros bats to get to him and follow up their 10-hit performance with another big offensive output. 10* (904) Houston Astros |
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10-22-19 | Nationals +201 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 201 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Tuesday Game One Sweet Spot. The National are also getting excellent value in Game One with Max Scherzer on the hill. He has been an underdog only once all season and that resulted in a win at the Dodgers are just +122 and the number is well above that here. He had another sensational regular season and Scherzer is coming off back-to-back excellent outings in the postseason, allowing a combined one run on five hits and five walks with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings. Gerrit Cole is not going to be easy to get through but the Yankees nearly did it in his last start but they stranded too runners. He is on one of the most amazing runs of any starting pitcher in recent history, going 19-0 with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and 258 strikeouts in 169. innings in his last 25 starts, including the playoffs. The Astros have won each of his last 16 starts so this will not be easy for Washington but we are taking the chance. 10* (901) Washington Nationals Game One |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 132 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Game of the Week. It is now do or die for the Yankees after dropping the first two games at home to fall behind in this series 3-1. History is not in their favor as through 2018, only 13 teams out of 86 had come back to win a best-of-seven series after dropping three of the first four contests. While that may be the case, we are looking for just one win to send the series back to Houston and we are doing it going against the public. Houston has won the last three games after dropping the opener 7-0 and it turns to Justin Verlander to close the series. Since his no-hitter in Toronto on the first day of September, he has made just two starts on the road and has posted a 6.52 ERA while allowing four home runs over those 9.2 innings. James Paxton went against Verlander in the first game of this series and got the early hook as he went just 2.1 innings despite allowing only one run. He has been great at home with a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with the Yankees going 12-4 in his 16 home starts and that includes six straight wins. Additionally, the Yankees are 6-0 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 5.4 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a game where they committed three or more errors. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-15-19 | Astros -144 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Astros were able to salvage a split at home after losing the opening game of the ALCS. Now they will be out to get back home field advantage in the series with a victory on Tuesday and they are in good shape with their hottest pitching on the hill.. Houston is 92-37 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons. The Yankees are in a difficult spot tonight despite posting a stellar record at home. Gerrit Cole has taken over as the Astros ace as he has been lights out. In 24 starts in the regular season and playoffs since May 27, Cole is 18-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, striking out 251 batters in 162.1 innings in that span. The Astros are 22-2 in those starts, including 15-0 in the times Cole has taken the ball since July 17. Luis Severino is a dynamic pitcher but he is coming back from injury and has been limited as he has tossed 83 pitches or less in four starts. He is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts. Here, we play on favorites with a money line of -150 or more that are hitting .190 or worse over their last three games, starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 59-9 (86.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) Houston Astros |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +123 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Down 0-2 in this series, the Cardinals have a must win game on their hands tonight and we expect them to come through to avoid the huge 0-3 deficit. St. Louis has been unable to get through the starting pitching in the first two games and that is a big problem considering the Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.66 ERA and .266 BAA. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nationals and he came through with two solid outings against the Dodgers and he has been pitching well for a while now but the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Jack Flaherty has been pitching at a higher level as he has posted a 1.13 ERA since July 7th, a span of 18 starts where he has not allowed more than three runs in any of those games. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last five games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 111-73 (60.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -154 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Astros were humbled at home last night, getting shutout 7-0 while registering just three hits. They closed at -147 favorites in a not-so-favorable pitching matchup and they are listed as slightly higher favorites tonight in a very favorable pitching matchup. Despite the win last night, the Yankees are 4-10 in their last 14 playoff road games while the Astros are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Justin Verlander is coming off his worst outing in a while against the Rays as he allowed four runs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings but that was on the road. He has a 2.21 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 18 home starts and he has allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 10 home outings. He earned MVP honors in the 2017 ALCS after he limited the Yankees to one run on 10 hits and two walks with 21 strikeouts over 16 innings in two starts. James Paxton has been pitching better over the second half of the season but he is coming off a rough outing against the Twins, allowing three runs in 4.2 innings. His lone start in Houston this season was a disaster as he allowed five runs in four innings and going back, the Astros are 21-5 in their last 26 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (908) Houston Astros |
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10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Washington stole Game One of this series last night behind an epic performance from Anibal Sanchez who quietly tossed a no-hitter into the eighth inning and the Cardinals were limited to one hit the entire game. Things do not get any easier today as St. Louis has to face Max Scherzer but he is gettable here. He has been solid this postseason with a 2.77 ERA but the one thing that has clipped him throughout his career is the long ball as he has allowed three home runs in 13 innings. He has not been the same since coming back from an injury on August 22 and his worst start since then happened to be right here where he allowed five runs, including a pair of home runs, in 6.2 innings on September 18. Adam Wainwright tossed a gem against Braves, going 7.2 innings without allowing a run and giving up just four hits. He has been awesome at home with a 2.37 ERA and he faced Washington twice this season, going 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA over 13.1 innings. Here, we play on home teams averaging 4.7 rpg against a very good starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 87-49 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -117 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Washington and St. Louis square off in the NLCS as both are coming off underdog series wins in the NLDS. Anibal Sanchez has resurrected his career over the last two seasons in Atlanta and Washington. He had a horrible stint in Detroit but has posted a 3.09 ERA between his time with the Braves and Nationals. His numbers are up this season including his ERA that is a run higher than it was last season. He posted a solid start against the Dodgers but the bullpen let him down which has been an issue this postseason with a 6.63 ERA over 19 innings. This has carried over from the regular season where the Nationals posted a 5.66 ERA, worst in the Majors. Miles Mikolas counters for the Cardinals and he is also coming off a solid postseason start on the road in Atlanta in the NLDS. He has been great at home this season with a 3.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 15 starts and he has a bullpen behind him that has been great as they finished fifth in MLB with a 3.82 ERA. 10* (902) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves +105 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Braves were four outs away from a series victory Monday afternoon, but Yadier Molina looped a game-tying RBI single in the eighth inning before lofting the walk-off sacrifice fly in the 10th that lifted the Cardinals to a 5-4 win. Game Five returns to Atlanta with a pitching rematch that we expect to come out the same. The Braves are 51-32 at home which is tied for the second best home record in the National League and we are catching an underdog price similar to that in Game Two. Mike Foltynewicz was sensational in his first start in this series and he has been pitching great for a while now. He has allowed three runs or less in his last nine starts while posting a 1.69 ERA over that stretch covering 53.1 innings. He has now allowed no runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against the Braves. Jack Flaherty was the losing pitching in Game Two but he still posted a quality outing for the ninth straight time. He is the reason the Braves are favored on the road but the Cardinals are 1-5 in his last six road starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Braves are 5-1 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 5.0 rpg with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 40-14 (74.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Atlanta Braves |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +138 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have a 2-0 lead in this series and can wrap it up tonight in Minnesota although we are expecting this series to go to a Game Four. New York has erupted for 18 runs in the first two games but doing that damage on the road is unlikely. The Twins offense was not nearly as potent but they have been a great bounce back teams as they are 25-8 in their last 33 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Luis Severino gets the ball for the Yankees after making just three starts in the regular season due to right rotator cuff inflammation. He will be limited as he has not thrown more than 80 pitches. He is making his seventh career postseason star and faces the team he met in his first postseason start in the 2017 AL Wild Card Game, when he pitched just one-third of an inning and allowed three runs. The Yankees are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Jake Odorizzi turned things around in his second year in Minnesota. After posting a 4.49 ERA in 32 starts in 2018, Odorizzi had a 3.51 ERA in 30 starts this year. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts including five straight at home. The Yankees are 0-5 in their last five road games against right-handed starters while the Twins are 7-0 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (908) Minnesota Twins |
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10-04-19 | Nationals +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Washington had an eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss in Game One last night but it was not all that surprising after its crazy win on Tuesday in the Wild Card game against Milwaukee. The Nationals have won four straight games following a loss. The Dodgers are riding an eight-game winning streak so they are clearly peaking at the right time but there is too much value on the National side. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for Washington and is in a good spot at a great price. While Strasburg has never made a start on three days of rest in his 10-year career, Nationals manager Dave Martinez said he considers his 34-pitch outing Tuesday as a high-intensity between-start bullpen session so there will be no effect. In 11 career starts against the Dodgers, Strasburg has a 2.54 ERA and he has been impressive at Dodger Stadium with a 2.08 ERA over four starts covering 26 innings. Clayton Kershaw had another great season with a 3.03 ERA but we cannot forget his postseason struggles as he has a 4.32 ERA in 30 playoff appearances. The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 games against left-handed starters. 10* (921) Washington Nationals |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -139 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday NLDS Blowout. St. Louis heads to Atlanta for Game One of the NLDS after taking the National League Central. The Cardinals finished just one game over .500 on the road during the regular season which is a big reason this line has been bet up from a -119 opening at Pinnacle. While the rosters have changed somewhat, the Cardinals are 0-6 in their last six playoff road games. Atlanta was able to hold off Washington to win the National League East by four games and secure the home field edge in this series. The Braves dropped their final three games of the regular season but those were meaningless and they were on the road. Atlanta went 50-31 at home and going back, the Braves are 7-2 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Dallas Keuchel gets the ball for the Braves and after a great six-game run, two of his last three starts were not great but his postseason experience makes him a great Game One option. It will be the 11th career postseason appearance for Keuchel, who was expected to fill this role when he was signed as a free agent in June. He went 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in his previous playoff games with the Houston Astros. Miles Mikolas counters for the Cardinals and he had an average season but he was way below average on the road, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 17 starts. 10* (916) Atlanta Braves |
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10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -133 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The home team came through last night, unfortunate for us, and tonight we will be backing the American League home team. Oakland finished the season 97-65, one game ahead of Tampa Bay to lock down the home field edge in this winner take all Wild Card game. The Athletics are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay closed the season with a pair of meaningless losses in Toronto. Pitching is the strength of the Rays, similar to that of Oakland but there is a big disadvantage in a one-game scenario as with more than 250 home runs this season, the Athletics are more capable than Tampa Bay of producing those runs in bunches. The Rays are 31-66 in their last 97 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Oakland hands the ball to Sean Manaea which was a bit of a surprise due to his limited action but he was nasty. Manaea has pitched in five games since returning from surgery on his left shoulder, going 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA. He has allowed 16 hits and seven walks in 29.1 innings and struck out 30. Charlie Morton counters for Tampa Bay and he had an outstanding season. While he posted the same 8-3 record at both home and on the road, his road ERA was a full run higher on the highway, 3.59 compared to 2.59. 10* (914) Oakland Athletics |
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10-01-19 | Brewers +170 v. Nationals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Wild Card Dominator. The Nationals already are, and will be going forward until gametime, a very popular play in the National League Wild Card game and it makes sense why. Washington claimed home field in the beginning of the weekend and is currently riding an eight game winning streak as it was able to overtake Milwaukee. The Brewers had a chance to win the National League Central but closed the season with three straight losses in Colorado to fall into this spot. Max Scherzer gets the ball for Washington and while he is the ace of the staff, he has not been of late. He has been at least somewhat hittable since his return from injury this year, with a 4.73 ERA in seven starts. He does have 54 strikeouts and only eight walks in that time but has been bitten by issues with the home run ball, serving up eight of them during this seven-game stretch. He is beatable, especially at home where Washington is just 6-9 in his 15 starts and he finished the season as the least profitable pitcher in the rotation at -8.85 units. Milwaukee will send All-Star Brandon Woodruff to the mound. He finished his first full season in the big leagues with a 3.62 ERA in 121.2 innings across 22 starts this season, along with a far more impressive 67 FIP. He will not be stretched out as he is coming off a pair of two-inning outings following his return from an oblique injury but this is not a bad thing as the bullpen is one of the better ones in baseball. 10* (911) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-27-19 | Indians +134 v. Nationals | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After dropping two straight games to the White Sox, the Indians trail the Rays by two games with three to play for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Those two games are going to come back and haunt Cleveland most likely but all it can do now is win and hope that they can get some help. This comes on the heels of a 7-1 run and going back, the Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Washington also has playoff implications on the line but not nearly as severe as it is playing for the home field in the National League Wild Card. Zach Plesac gets the ball for the Indians and he has been solid on the road with a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and he has been especially good in his night starts, posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with Cleveland going 9-2 in 11 starts. Austin Voth has been pitching well but has posted only one quality outing over his last six starts as he does not go deep and has gone over 90 pitches only twice in his career. Here, we play against National League home teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 33-16 (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (979) Cleveland Indians |
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09-25-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Game of the Week. After winning the 15-inning marathon game on Monday, the Blue Jays dropped Game Two last night but it is still 6-3 over its last nine games. This is the final likely winnable game of the season as they close with a series against Tampa Bay which is right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Baltimore is coming off a rare win and as mentioned Monday, it is one of four teams that have 100 losses this season. The Orioles are 17-49 in their last 66 games following a win. Jacob Waguespack gets the start for Toronto and while his numbers do not look overly appeasing, digging deeper shows why. Of his 12 starts, nine have come against winning teams, eight of which are in current playoff positions with Boston being the other. He has a 3.24 ERA in his three starts against teams with a losing record covering 16.2 innings. It has been a rough season for Gabriel Ynoa who has rotated between the starting rotation and the bullpen and neither has been particularly good. In 12 starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and since winning his first start back in May, Baltimore is 0-11 in his 11 starts since then. The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they are 10-2 this season against American League pitchers with an ERA of 5.90 or worse. 10* (968) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -107 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee posted its eighth win in nine games and improved to an MLB best 17-4 in September following its 4-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Sunday. The Brewers also own a 10-2 mark since losing Christian Yelich to a fractured kneecap. They have a four-game cushion for the second Wild Card spot in the National League and are a half-game behind Washington for the first spot so winning is still the goal. That being said, they are in a tough spot here. Cincinnati is coming off a series loss against the Mets and it opens its final home series of the season with its ace on the hill. Sonny Gray has been sensational this season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and has accounted for 19 of the 73 wins for the Reds. He has allowed three runs or less in nine straight starts and Gray improved to 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his career against Milwaukee after making four solid starts this season. Adrian Houser counters for the Brewers and he has struggled over his last few starts, tossing non-quality outings over his last six starts. The Brewers are 2-6 in his eight road starts this season. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-21-19 | Giants +137 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Braves clinched their 19th division championship, and second straight, with a 6-0 win over the Giants Friday night at SunTrust Park. Celebrations went long into the evening which certainly puts them in a bad spot tonight and it is likely some players will sit but not much to play for at this points. Atlanta trails the Dodgers by 4.5 games for the best record in the National League so catching them with seven games left is likely unattainable. The Giants have dropped two straight games following a three-game winning streak and turn to Johnny Cueto to post another solid start. He has allowed no runs in two starts, both covering five innings and while he is being limited, he remains efficient. It helps having a bullpen that is fifth in baseball with a 3.83 ERA behind him. The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried who has had his moments but has struggled of late. He has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts covering just 7.1 innings. 10* (959) San Francisco Giants |
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09-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -108 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Arizona was in the heat of the National League Wild Card race but a 3-8 run has dropped them five games back with just eight games remaining. The Diamondbacks are .500 on the road overall but have dropped five straight on the highway. San Diego is back home following a 1-6 roadtrip but those games were against Colorado at Coors Field and contending Milwaukee. The Padres have won four of their last six games at home and they are 19-8 in their last 27 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. Eric Lauer takes the hill for San Diego and while his numbers have been up and down, the down has been on the road. Lauer has allowed three runs or less in 11 straight starts at home and the Padres are 5-0 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Merrill Kelly has tossed three straight quality starts but two of those were at home and he brings in a 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road. The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in his last seven road starts. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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09-19-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Game of the Week. A huge four-game series opens tonight in Chicago with the Cubs trying to make up three games on the Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago has won five straight games before a pair of losses against the Reds and they remain in a tie with Milwaukee for the second wild Card spot in the National League so there is a lot going on. The Cubs are 51-26 at home which is second best in the National League and they have won their last seven series openers. St. Louis is coming off a 3-3 homestand and is just 4-5 over its last nine games. The Cardinals are nothing special on the road at two games under .500 and they are 7-20 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record. Jack Flaherty is the reason this line is so low and to his credit, he has been lights out. However, the offense has backed him with two runs or less in six of his last eight starts and Wrigley Field is not his friend with a 6.35 ERA over four starts. Kyle Hendricks has been dealing it as well with the exception of a couple bad road outings. He has a 1.75 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 home starts with 12 of those being quality outings. Chicago has won 10 straight and 14 of his last 17 starts against the Cardinals. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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09-18-19 | Padres +137 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has won the first two games of this four-game series to make it four straight wins. The Brewers have won 11 of their last 12 games to fall into a tie with the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They are also just two games back of St. Louis in the National League Central. That being said at a short price, the public is all over them tonight and puts them in a perfect fade spot. The Padres meanwhile have lost six straight games. The pitching was a disaster early on but three of those games came at Coors Field and now it is the offense which has scored just one run in each of the first two games of this series. Dinelson Lamet gets the ball for San Diego and he has huge upside. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of 12 starts and has struck out seven or more in half of his starts including a pair of double-digit strike out performances. He has a healthy 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road. Adrian Houser is having a solid season but fatigue is coming into play. He has a 6.35 ERA over his last three starts and has a max of 5.1 innings over his last five starts. The Brewers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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09-17-19 | Reds +148 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 148 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cubs won the opener of this series last night and while they are trying to play their way into the playoffs, we are backing the Reds behind their ace at a great price. Chicago has won five straight games as the offense continues to be explosive, averaging 11.8 rpg over the winning streak but it has not faced a pitcher like it will tonight. Cincinnati is 3-4 on this current roadtrip but has won three of its last five and turns to its ace in Sonny Gray. He has posted a 1.29 ERA over his last eight starts and has allowed more than one run in only two of those. The Reds are 14-3 in his last 17 starts against teams with a winning record. The Cubs counter with Yu Darvish who has been pitching well but it is hard not to see his 5.14 ERA at home and be concerned. Here, we play against teams that are hitting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 67-36 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-16-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 129 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. St. Louis is coming off a brutal loss on Sunday as it went into the ninth inning with a 4-3 lead but allowed a Ryan Braun grand slam and eventually lost the game 7-6. The Cardinals lead in the National League Central has gone down to two games over the Cubs and three games over the Brewers. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Washington won its series finale over Atlanta to maintain its game and a half lead over Chicago for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. The Nationals have lost four straight series openers and they are 1-4 in their last five games following a win. Stephen Strasburg comes in as the favorite mostly on name alone although he is having a great season. He has not been as efficient on the road as he has been at home. St. Louis counters with Dakota Hudson who can make a strong case of being the favorite here. He has posted a 1.43 ERA over his last six starts, allowing no runs in four of those. The Cardinals are 11-3 in his last 14 starts following a quality outing in his last game. 10* 904) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-15-19 | Marlins v. Giants -154 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Miami snapped a five-game winning streak with a win last night but it still managed just four runs and it is averaging 2.8 rpg over its last six games. The Marlins are 12-26 in their last 38 road games against teams with a losing record. San Francisco has lost three of its last four games on this current homestand but it is in a great pitching matchup today. Elieser Hernandez has been all over the place this season as he is coming off his third straight non-quality start and he has just two quality outings over his last 12 starts. He has a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 33 innings on the road. Johnny Cueto had a solid effort in his first start back from Tommy John surgery as he tossed five scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and one walk. He gets the benefit of another home start in his second outing and going back, the Giants are 13-4 in his last 17 home starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play on home favorites that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against an opponent that is hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 49-14 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) San Francisco Giants |
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09-13-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -124 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Game of the Year. Milwaukee completed the four-game sweep in Miami on Thursday to make it seven straight wins and now sit four games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central. They have won the last two without the services of Christian Yelich and he will be missed down the stretch run. while the Brewers have been hot, they have been taking to the bad teams and going back, they are 4-9 in their last 13 road games against team with a winning record. The Cardinals salvaged a game in Colorado to maintain their lead and after a disappointing 3-3 roadtrip, they head back home where they are 46-26, the second best home record in the National League. With just over two weeks left in the season, St. Louis is in good shape for a playoff berth but there is still room to fall out and a win the series opener is huge. The Cardinals are 35-16 in their last 51 home games against teams with a losing road record. While Adam Wainwright is nearing the end of a great career with St. louis, he is having his best season since 2014. His overall numbers are not impressive, but he has been dealing at home all season as he has posted a 2.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts where he is 7-3. The Cardinals are 10-2 in his last 12 starts and he will be out for revenge after the Brewers got to him here on 8/21 for five runs in five innings, his worst home start of the season. Adrian Houser has been very solid but he has struggled on the road with a 3.98 ERA and 1.37 WHIP and he has just one quality start on the road. The Brewers are 1-4 in his last five road starts. 10* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-12-19 | Rays -152 v. Rangers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay lost a tough game last night as it rallied from a 7-2 deficit to take the lead only to lose it late. Both the A's and Indians gained on the Rays on Wednesday, winning while Tampa Bay 10-9 to end a six-game winning streak. With 15 games remaining on their schedule, the Rays cling to the top Wild Card spot in the American League by a half game over Oakland and one game over Cleveland. The Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Texas has now won five of its last six games but four of those wins came against 47-98 Baltimore and the win last night was its first in its last nine home games against a winning team. The Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (919) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-11-19 | Nationals -140 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Washington has lost five of its last six games to see its lead in the National League Wild Card shrink to 2.5 games over the Cubs and 3.5 games to falling out completely. Going back, the Nationals are 19-8 in their last 27 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota has been up and down of late but did win last night to keep its five-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central in place. But, the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. Stephen Strasburg is the perfect pitcher to put an end to this skid as he has tossed four straight quality starts, posting a 1.67 ERA over that stretch and three of those have come on the road. Martin Perez had a great start to the season but he has struggled of late with a 6.17 ERA over his last nine starts and the Nationals have won seven of their last nine games against left-handed starters. 10* (977) Washington Nationals |
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09-10-19 | Braves v. Phillies +147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 147 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. We lost with the Phillies last night and they are now three games out of the final Wild Card spot with just 19 games left and they have to take advantage of games at home where there are just eight remaining. The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Braves are just three games behind the Dodgers for the best record in the National League so there is motivation there as well but they are overpriced tonight. Max Fried gets the ball for Atlanta and while he has been the most profitable pitcher in the rotation, it is due to 6.89 rpg of support which is unheard of. In his previous start, Fried tossed seven scoreless innings and gave up just one hit in a 4-2 win over the Nationals. But that was at home. He has a 4.39 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 13 road starts but has a positive return because of that run support. Jason Vargas is coming off a near quality start last time out and while he has been up and down with the Phillies, he has exceptional value on his side tonight. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-09-19 | Braves v. Phillies -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Enforcer. Thanks to the Cubs 8-5 loss to the Brewers on Sunday, coupled with the Philadelphia 10-7 win over the Mets, the Phillies and Brewers are both two games behind the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They head back home where they are 41-31 on the season and this is a big stretch where the next 17 games are against teams all in playoff contention. The Braves remain atop the National League East, eight games ahead of Washington. The Phillies will hand the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola, who is 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season and 10-3 with a 2.46 ERA in 16 career starts against the Braves. He has been dominant at home with a 2.85 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 17 starts. This is a contrarian play in some respects as Mike Foltynewicz has been pitching good enough for the Braves to win his last nine starts. But he has a pedestrian 4.72 ERA over this stretch. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-08-19 | Rockies v. Padres -145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego snapped a four-game slide with a 3-0 victory on Saturday and we feel that momentum continues. The Padres are 18-8 after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season. The Rockies have now dropped 10 of their last 11 games and the road continues to haunt them where they have lost 17 of their last 20 games. Colorado is 4-19 in road games after scoring two runs or less this season. Eric Lauer has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and he has been great at home with a 3.22 ERA in 12 outings. The Padres are 6-1 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Peter Lambert has struggled mightily with a 7.19 ERA in 16 starts and he has actually been worse on the road than at Coors Field as he possesses a 7.47 ERA in seven road starts. The Rockies are 0-6 in his last six road starts. Here, we play against National League underdogs averaging 5.0 or more rpg with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last five starts going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 72-24 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) San Diego Padres |
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09-06-19 | Royals v. Marlins -128 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Miami won its road series at Pittsburgh to open the week, its first road series win since late July while snapping a 15-game rod losing streak in the process. Now the Marlins return home where they have been better than on the road as is the case with their starting pitcher. The Royals were rising a four-game winning streak going into Thursday but lost to the Tigers after blowing a 3-0 lead after two innings. Kansas City is 22-46 on the road, tied for the worst road record in baseball with the Marlins. Pablo Lopez takes the hill for Miami and he is the epitome of home/road success or lack thereof. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight road starts while posting a 2.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in eight home starts. Jorge Lopez had a horrible run through May and has not been any better since getting back into the rotation with a 7.36 ERA in three August starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing. This situation is 62-18 (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (930) Miami Marlins |
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09-05-19 | Nationals -107 v. Braves | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Game of the Week. Washington and Atlanta begin a crucial four-game series tonight and while the Braves have a secure seven-game cushion in the National League East, Washington needs to keep winning as well to hold onto its 3.5-game lead in the National League Wild Card race. The Nationals lost yesterday against the Mets to close a series defeat but going back, they are 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss. Atlanta has won six straight games although those all came against the White Sox and Blue Jays. Washington hands the ball to Stephen Strasburg who is having another great season and he has been especially dialed in of late with a 0.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over his last three starts. The Nationals are 40-13 in his last 53 road starts. Max Fried has been all over the place of late but he has been pulling out the wins thanks to superb run support. The Braves have won his last eight starts even though only three of those have been quality outings thanks to 7.9 rpg from the offense. Overall, his 7.0 rpg over 26 starts is the most in the National League and that is where the luck comes in which will not be in play tonight. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on road teams batting .300 or better over their last 20 games, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This situation is 103-56 (64.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Washington Nationals |
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09-03-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet spot. Arizona erupted for 14 runs yesterday to make it seven wins over its last eight games. The Diamondbacks are now just 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and 10 of their next 14 games are against teams not in the playoff picture. San Diego had a two-game winning streak snapped with the Monday loss and the Padres are now three games under .500 on the road. Going back, the Padres are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Merrill Kelly gets the ball for Arizona and while he has been up and down, he has remained consistent at home. He has a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 14 road starts but a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 home outings. The Padres counter with Ronald Bolanos who is making his Major League debut. Bolanos opened the season in Class-A Advanced and posted a 2.85 ERA through 10 starts before jumping to Double-A where he had a 4.23 ERA. He makes his debut in a very tough environment against one of the hotter teams in the National League. Here, we play against road teams batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen allowed six or more earned runs. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-02-19 | Astros v. Brewers +163 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is coming off a win in Toronto on Sunday to win that series behind a no-hitter from Justin Verlander and there was certainly some celebrating going on last night and a feat like that puts Houston in a massive letdown spot on Monday. Milwaukee enters the contest three games behind Chicago for the second Wild Card spot in the National League following back-to-back shutout wins over the Cubs over the weekend. We played on Adrian Houser in his last start against the Cardinals but the bullpen let him down after yet another strong performance. He has been pitching lights out as over his last four starts, he has a 1.54 ERA and has allowed just one run in all of those starts. Overall, he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five home starts. Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole. The Astros have won his last seven starts and while he has pitched great for the most part, getting an average of 9.3 rpg does not hurt and we do not expect that today. 10* (924) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-31-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS Game One for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. St. Louis is coming off a series win over Milwaukee but did drop the finale 4-1 and saw its lead drop to two games over the Cubs in the National League Central. The Cardinals are 40-24 at home and have won four straight following a four-game sweep of the Rockies to end their last homestand. Going back, the Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record. Cincinnati is coming off a series win over Miami but it is still well under .500 on the highway. The Reds are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a winning record. Dakota Hudson has been the hottest pitcher in baseball as he has not allowed a single run over his last three starts covering 18.2 innings. This includes allowing no hits against the Brewers in 6.2 innings before being pulled. Hudson has a 2.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP at home where the Cardinals have gone 10-3 in his 13 home starts. Trevor Bauer has upside but he has been a disaster since coming over from Cleveland as he has a 7.62 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in five starts. This includes an 11.30 ERA in his last three outings and a 14.25 ERA in three road starts, all Cincinnati losses. 10* (902) St. Louis Cardinals Game One |
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08-29-19 | Padres -123 v. Giants | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. San Diego is coming off a 2-4 homestand, losing both series but those came against the Dodgers and Red Sox, two of the better teams in baseball. The Padres hit the road where they are just 30-34 but have shown a slight profit compared to being -14.4 units at home. San Diego is 21-10 against the money line in its last 31 games after having lost five or six of its last seven games this season. San Francisco dropped both games of its mini two-game series against Arizona and after a strong run to possibly make a playoff push, the Giants are likely done, having lost six of their last eight games to fall six games out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. San Francisco is 32-43 against the money line in its last 75 home games after two straight losses by two runs or less. Chris Paddock was cruising along with a 2.78 ERA through his first 18 starts but then faced the Dodgers in Los Angeles and he got lit up for six runs in four innings. Three starts after that, he allowed six runs in just 2.1 innings but that came against Boston. He has allowed four runs or more only five times and those came against the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies (twice). Dereck counters for the Giants and he has struggled. He posted a 5.05 ERA through his first eight starts, was sent to the bullpen for nine relief appearances and has posted a 5.21 ERA in four starts since re-entering the rotation. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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08-28-19 | Reds v. Marlins +143 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Game of the Week. Cincinnati has won the first two games of this series behind its two aces Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo but it is in a more difficult spot tonight. The Reds are just 25-38 on the road despite the two recent wins ang going back, they 3-15 in their last 18 road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Miami was coming off a series win at home over Philadelphia before these last two games and while the overall home success has been kept in check, the Marlins have had some tough luck overall by going 13-19 in one run games this season. Sandy Alcantara has also had some tough luck as he has posted a decent 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP but has just four wins to show for it. He is on a huge three-game stretch with three quality starts, going at least seven innings in all three and more impressive is one game came in Colorado and the other two games came against Atlanta. Anthony DeSclafani is coming off a quality outing but he has posted just two in his last eight starts. He has a 4.96 ERA on the road and the Reds are 2-8 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play against National League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30 percent. This situation is 56-29 (65.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (956) Miami Marlins |
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08-27-19 | Cubs v. Mets -102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Both Chicago and New York were swept over the weekend and their current three-game losing streaks hurt their Wild Card positions but both are still in good shape. The sweeps negated the progress both teams made at home earlier in the week, when the Mets swept a three-game series from the Indians and the Cubs took three straight from the Giants. Chicago hits the road where it is 25-39 on the season and they are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Mets meanwhile are 37-24 at home and sit just two games behind the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. New York has won all four starts by Marcus Stroman since he came over from Toronto. He has yet to make a quality start but the numbers have been decent as long as he can keep the walks down. Yu Darvish is coming off a horrible start against the Giants and on the season, Chicago is just 3-10 in his 13 road starts including losses in five straight. 10* (906) New York Mets |
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08-26-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -131 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals have won four straight games and are 13-3 over their last 16 games to increase their lead to 2.5 games over the Cubs and 4.5 games over the Brewers in the National League Central. The majority of the success has come at home though as they are 10-1 over their last 11 home games where they are 40-24 on the season compared to three games under .500 on the road. The Cardinals are 2-7 in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record. Milwaukee won its series with Arizona although it did drop the series finale on Sunday. Still, the Brewers are 11 games over .500 at home and they are 7-2 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning record. Adam Wainwright is coming off a rare poor home start which happened to come against the Brewers and now he hits the road where he has a 6.64 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 starts. The Cardinals are 0-7 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. Gio Gonzalez has been okay since coming back into the rotation and things could be better if he was stretched out more. Overall, he has a 3.64 ERA and the Brewers are 7-2 in his last nine starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 hitting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who walked four or more hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 37-11 (77.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-25-19 | Red Sox v. Padres -112 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the San Diego Padres for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Boston has won the first two games of this series and has now won four straight games on the highway going back to its previous roadtrip. The Red Sox are now six games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League yet have a tough task on Sunday facing a left-handed starter which they have struggled against this season. San Diego has lost four straight games and is 10 games under .500 on the season so there is not a while lot to like but the Padres have a great opportunity today. Boston used seven pitchers yesterday and will have to go back to the bullpen today with Brian Johnson taking the hill. He has not made it through four innings in his four starts since re-entering the rotation and overall he has a 6.58 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. Joey Lucchesi counters for San Diego and he is having a solid season and while his 4.20 ERA may nor show that, his 1.18 WHIP does. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 home starts and the Padres are 7-3 in his last 10 starts with six days of rest. 10* (928) San Diego Padres |
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08-24-19 | Braves v. Mets -105 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Mets suffered a tough loss last night as the Braves won in 14 innings to snap a five-game winning streak from New York. The Mets are still 27-11 since the All-Star Break, best in the Majors, and they remain two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. New York is a perfect 8-0 this season at home following a loss by two runs or less. Atlanta has won six straight games to remain six games ahead of Washington in the National League East and it continues to possess the best road record in the National League. That is helping with this price however in a pitching matchup we can exploit based on some skewed numbers. Max Fried is 8-1 with a 4-02 ERA on the road but he has a 1.50 WHIP in his 12 starts on the highway and the Braves have handed him 7.4 rpg in those games. Zack Wheeler has a 4.20 ERA at home but has a 1.16 WHIP in those games which tells a better story. He has struggled against the Braves this season but all three of those starts were on the road. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after allowing two runs or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This situation 62-28 (68.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) New York Mets |
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08-22-19 | Rockies v. Cardinals -135 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Game of the Week. We lost with St. Louis last night in a tough luck situation as the game was called after 7.5 innings due to rain. The Cardinals are now in second place in the National League Central, a half-game back of the Cubs. They currently hold the second Wild Card slot, 1.5 games up on the Mets and Phillies. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four home games against teams with a losing record. Colorado salvaged its series finale in Arizona with a 7-2 win over the Diamondbacks. It has been a very tough stretch for one of the best offenses in baseball but that usually pertains only to home. Overall, the Rockies are 14-30 in their last 44 games and they are 3-10 in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record. Miles Mikolas takes the hill for St. Louis and he is coming off a pair of poor outings but he returns home where he has been sensational. He has a 2.43 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 12 home starts compared to a 6.54 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 13 road starts. The Cardinals are 11-3 in his last 14 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. German Marquez counters for Colorado and while he is having a decent season, he hits a tough spot here as the Rockies are 2-5 in his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-21-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -107 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. St. Louis has won three straight games to remain ahead of the Cubs in the National League Central and going back, they are a perfect 6-0 in their last six home games. The Cardinals have now won six straight meetings against the Brewers by an average of 3.8 rpg. Milwaukee continues to struggle with three straight losses and it is 2-6 over its last eight games. Additionally, the Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine road games against teams with a winning record. Adam Wainwright is coming off a rare strong road performance as he went 6.2 innings against the Reds in Cincinnati and allowed three earned runs on seven hits. He was staked to a 6-0 lead after three innings which made it much easier to deal. He has been sensational at home with a 2.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 starts and the Cardinals have won seven of his last eight overall. Adrian Houser has been decent of late but is getting no support from his offense as the Brewers have averaged 2.0 rpg in his last six starts. The Brewers are 0-5 in his last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (910) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-20-19 | Padres v. Reds -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Reds got another solid home start from Trevor Bauer but the offense failed to get anything going as they lost their second straight game. Cincinnati is still four games over .500 at home and going back, the Reds are 6-2 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing record. After dropping the opener in Philadelphia, the Padres have won their last three road games thanks to solid pitching but the offense has still been struggling. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Sonny Gray has been everything the Reds could have asked for after getting him following his rough time with the Yankees. He has a 2.98 RA and 1.12 WHIP over 22 starts and he has been exceptional of late with a 1.59 ERA over his last nine starts which includes three straight start of allowing no runs. Cal Quantrill has been very solid in his 12 starts although he does not go deep in games and the Padres bullpen is one of the worst in baseball with a 4.89 ERA on the road. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for out MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Baltimore enters Monday riding a seven-game losing streak while going on a 1-12 streak but seven games were against the Yankees, three against the Red Sox and three against Astros. Kansas City is coming off a 1-4 homestand and head out on the road where it is 20-41 on the season. John Means will start for the Orioles, and the left-hander has had troubles since making the All-Star team. He's dropped his last three starts and hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in any of them. That being said, the last two outings came against the Yankees and the other in hitter-friendly Chase Field against Arizona. He has been very good at home with a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts and the six Baltimore wins in those games account for one-third of its total wins at home. Jorge Lopez is making his second start since coming back into the rotation and he was lit up by the lowly Tigers last time out, allowing five runs, four earned, in just 1.1 innings. Overall, he has a 6.51 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 starts and 19 relief appearances. Here, we play against American League underdogs with an OBP of .310 worse and batting .190 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 61-17 (78.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-18-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -101 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Francisco has won the first three games of this series and will be out for the series sweep behind its ace but we are going the contrarian route. The Giants have gone from one game behind the Diamondbacks to two up on them in the National League Wild Card chase. The Diamondbacks have lost four straight games overall and are 4 .5 games back of the second Wild Card spot, with four teams ahead of them. While must wins are thrown around a lot, this is one of those for Arizona. The pitching has been a disaster and the bullpen has logged a lot of innings and it is up to Merrill Kelly to put in a good workload. He was hit hard in his last start but that was at Coord Field against Colorado. He has a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 home starts. Madison Bumgarner is coming off a pair of gems but both of those were at home where he has a 2.95 ERA. The road has been a different story as he has a 4.64 ERA in 11 starts. Here, we play on National League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season, with a bullpen that has tossed nine or more innings over the last two games. This situation is 69-32 (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-17-19 | Padres v. Phillies -107 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. After their dramatic walk-off grand slam on Thursday, the Phillies were able to carry that into Friday with an 8-4 win over the Padres in the series opener. They have now won four straight games to take over the second Wild Card spot from the Cubs in the National League. The Phillies are 13-6 in their last 19 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. San Diego has lost four of its last five games to fall to nine games under .500 on the season yet are priced tonight like a much better team. Yet, the Padres have struggled in this spot as they are 3-12 in their last 15 games against National League teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. Part of the reason for the number is the pitching matchup as Zach Eflin has been brutal of late. He returns to the rotation for the first time since July 27, when he gave up six earned runs in 2.2 innings as part of a 15-7 loss to the Braves. He has appeared in four games out of the bullpen since then, allowing one run in 5.2 innings, striking out seven. San Diego counters with Dinelson Lamet who has been solid of late but has faced no one. The Padres are 0-11 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League favorites with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 106-40 (72.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-16-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Arizona got shutout in the opener of this series last night to make it two straight losses and has fallen back to .500 on the season. It has not been particularly good at home at 27-29 but that is keeping this number down and going back, the Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco has now won four of its last five games to also sit at .500 on the season and it has been a great run over the last month. The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. Mike Leake had a positive first start with Arizona but was shelled last time out although that was against the Dodgers on the road. He has been solid in these spots as his teams are 11-1 as favorites of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Jeff Samardzija has been on a great run but he does not like it here and in two starts this season, he has a 6.35 ERA at Chase Field. 10* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-15-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Game of the Week. St. Louis has moved into a tie for first place with the Cubs in the National League Central following its fifth straight win. The Cardinals swept the Pirates at home and then went on the road and posted back-to-back shutouts over the Royals which makes this a great time to play against. St. Louis is 0-12 this season after a five-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better. Cincinnati has dropped four in a row following a 17-7 loss last night in Washington and it heads home with a 33-28 record and a very winnable stretch coming up. The Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Michael Wacha looks to bounce back from an atrocious performance in his latest outing as he was throttled for six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in 3.2 innings of an 8-0 setback at the Dodgers. It was his first start in over a month after getting back into the rotation and is has been a struggle all season with a 5.54 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 15 starts. The Cardinals have dropped five of his last seven road starts. Sonny Gray has been everything the Reds could have asked for after getting him following his rough time with the Yankees. He has a 3.10 RA and 1.13 WHIP over 23 starts and he has been exceptional of late with a 1.74 ERA over his last eight starts. The Reds are 7-0 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -135 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The red hot Mets have cooled off with a pair of losses and they are now two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They had great success at home and while the road was good as well, three victims were the White Sox, Marlins and Pirates, all of which are at least 12 games under .500. The Mets are 8-20 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Atlanta remains six games in front of Washington in the National League East following its second straight win to improve to 33-25 at home. The Braves have won five of their last six games against teams with a winning record. Dallas Keuchel is coming off a rough start as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in justv3.2 innings against the Marlins. That was on the road however where he has a 6.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in six starts. He has been a different pitcher at home, where in four hone outings, he has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP and all of those have ben quality performances. The Mets are 1-5 in their last six road games against left-handed starters. Steven Matz is similar where he has been much better at home than on the road. He has a 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home games while posting a 6.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine road games. 10* (960) Atlanta Braves |
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08-13-19 | Mariners v. Tigers -155 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Seattle has lost eight of its last nine games following a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Rays and it hits the road where it is just 21-35 and the slumps have really carried over. The Mariners are 15-46 after having lost four or five of their last six games this season. Detroit is the worst team in baseball at 35-80 yet comes in as a favorite tonight which has many shaking their head but it is for good reason based on the matchup. The Tigers 16 home wins are the fewest in baseball but we are backing them here behind Matthew Boyd. He is coming off one of his worst start on the season but prior to that, he posted a 2.50 ERA over his previous three starts and has struck out at least eight hitters in seven straight starts with an average of 9.9 per game. That makes this matchup a big advantage as the Mariners have struck out 1,179 times this season, the most in baseball. Detroit is 13-4 in his last 17 starts against American League teams with an on base percentage .330 or worse. The Mariners counter with Yusei Kikuchi has struggled this season, especially on the road where he has a 5.55 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 starts. The Mariners have dropped his last six road starts. Here, we play against underdogs after two straight losses by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a loss by six runs or more. This situation is 59-18 (76.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox v. Indians +107 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cleveland busted loose for four runs in the 10th inning yesterday to win the series finale against Minnesota and reclaim a share of first place in the American League Central. The Indians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball as they are 37-14 over their last 51 games and yet they come into this series opener as underdogs. Because it is the Red Sox name and nothing else. Boston is hovering at just four games over .500 as it is 3-13 over its last 16 games and has fallen 7.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Zach Plesac takes the hill for Cleveland and he has been solid with a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts, 10 of which the Indians have won. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts including three games allowing no runs. Cleveland has won his last six outings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been up and down with a 4.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP including a 4.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 road starts. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 35-13 (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Cleveland Indians |
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08-11-19 | Rockies +108 v. Padres | Top | 8-3 | Win | 108 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego has won three straight games over Colorado to open this homestand where it is just 28-30 on the season. Despite the recent run, the Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Colorado looks to avoid a four-game sweep today against San Diego and put an end to a five-game losing streak, all coming on the road. Going back, the Rockies have lost seven straight road games and are 3-15 in their last 18 road games. So why bet them? The pitching matchup is finally in their favor. German Marquez will be facing the Padres for the third time this season and owns a career 4-2 record against them, with a 5.13 ERA over 47.1 innings. He is 2-0 against the Padres this season with a 7.15 ERA, but both starts were at Coors Field, where the Rockies have supported him with 26 runs so that ERA is skewed. He started twice at Petco Park last season and posted a 2.77 ERA. Dinelson Lamet counters for the Padres and while he is coming off his best start of the season, it was on the road against the Mariners which are the second worst hitting team in baseball since the All-Star Break. Colorado meanwhile is fifth with a .270 average and Lamet has struggled in both of his home starts this season with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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08-10-19 | Indians v. Twins -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Game of the Month. Minnesota has officially blown a massive lead after 104 days at the top following its fourth straight loss which came on the heels of a four-game winning streak. The Twins pitching has been abysmal as they have allowed 9.0 rpg over this slump but their best starter since this takes the hill tonight. The Twins are 20-7 in their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Another great performance from Shane Bieber sent Cleveland to its fourth straight win and put the Indians into a tie for first place with the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians are now 10 games over .500 on the rod and are one of the hottest pitching teams in baseball as they have allowed an average of 2.0 rpg over their last eight games. That being said, the Twins are in a great spot to get the lead back with Jake Odorizzi taking the hill. He got lit up by the Yankees three starts back but has allowed just two runs over his last two outings. He has a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home and the Twins are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts while going 15-4 over his last 19 starts total. Adam Plutko has been on a roll as well but it is hard to ignore his 5.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his three road starts and one relief appearance. Minnesota is 12-4 in its last 16 games playing with double-revenge. 10* (974) Minnesota Twins |
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08-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. St. Louis has lost five straight games to fall four games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but all five of those losses came on the road and a day on Thursday was just what it needed. The Cardinals are 31-23 at home and they have won five straight games against teams with a losing record. The Pirates come in losers of five straight games as well and their playoff hopes are completely done. They are 7-21 in their last 28 road games. Chris Archer has been a disaster since coming over from Tampa Bay last season although he is coming off a rare quality outing. Still, he brings in a 7.14 ERA on the road and the Pirates are 0-6 in his last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Dakota Hudson is having a fine season as he has allowed three runs or less in all but two of his 22 starts. The Cardinals are 8-0 in his last eight starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play against road underdogs with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 66-24 (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-08-19 | Indians v. Twins -105 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After opening its homestand with four straight wins, Minnesota dropped the final two games against the Braves as the pitching blew up by allowing 23 runs. The Twins lead in the American League Central has shrunk to two games over the Indians which makes this a big series for both teams but we give the sided edge to the home team which are 35-23 at home. Additionally, the Twins are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss. Cleveland had a successful 6-3 homestand including wins in five of the final six games to continue pushing Minnesota. The Indians are a solid 30-22 on the road but that helps with our number here as the short price is on our side. Kyle Gibson is coming off a pair of quality outings and he has been on a solid run overall with just two bad starts over his last 11 games and those were against the Yankees and Red Sox. While his 4.02 ERA at home is not great, his 1.08 WHIP is. Mike Clevinger has been on a roll over his last six starts but he hits the road where he has not been good and his three road starts where he has had success have come against the Royals twice and the Blue Jays. The Indians are 3-10 in his last 13 starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (966) Minnesota Twins |
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08-07-19 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Game of the Week. After losing Game One of this series, the Diamondbacks won yesterday and will be going for the series win tonight as they look to keep pace in the National League Wild Card race. They have not been a great home team this season, siting at two games under .500, but that is a big reason the line is very short. The Phillies are even worse on the road and going back, they are 22-44 as road underdogs of +150 or less. Additionally, Philadelphia is 3-17 in its 20 games as an underdog between +125 and +175 this season. Zac Gallen is making his Arizona debut after coming over from Miami in a prospect trade and he has been sensational. Between Triple-A and MLB, he has a 2.04 ERA with 155 strikeouts in 127.2 innings and in his last two starts with the Marlins, he tossed 14 innings and allowed only two runs. While this may look like a poor move going to a notorious hitters park, when looking at Run Factor, Arizona has actually been better for pitchers (35 and 53) than Miami (18 and 33). The Phillies counter with Jason Vargas who had a solid debut in a Philadelphia uniform as he posted a quality outing against the White Sox. But that is the White Sox. He now faces a Diamondbacks team that is third best in baseball against lefties with a .283 average. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Here, we play against road teams that are hitting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 48-15 (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-06-19 | Angels v. Reds -138 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Reds won the opener of this series as they jumped out to a 6-0 lead after two innings and never looked back. Cincinnati is not in a playoff race sitting five games under .500 but it is 30-26 at home and the Reds are 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles was making a Wild Card push but it has lost five straight games and is now nine games back. The Angels are 20-46 in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning home record. Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball for Cincinnati and while he has been rather average, he has been particularly good at home with a 3.40 ERA in 10 starts which includes a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts at Great American Ball Park. Jose Suarez has made nine starts and none have resulted in a quality outing and he did not make it through five innings in any of his five starts in July, posting an 0-1 mark and 5.75 ERA. 10* (974) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs -142 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Cubs came through for us on Sunday with a 7-2 victory over Milwaukee to culminate a three-game sweep over the Brewers and they now have a game and a half lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago improved to 39-18 at home which is the second best home record in the National League and going back, the Cubs are 22-7 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. The A's head to Chicago with three straight wins and are a half-game behind Tampa Bay for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Oakland is 14-7 since the All-Star Break and 28-12 going back to June 17. The A's are also a great home team but average on the road with a 27-25 record and going back, Oakland is 17-35 in its last 52 Interleague road games against teams with a winning record. Kyle Hendricks has a 2.25 ERA in his last six starts and has a scoreless streak of 12 innings entering Monday. He allowed seven hits and no runs in seven innings in his last start and has allowed two runs or less in each of those last six outings. The Cubs are 22-6 in his last 28 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game and his 1.89 ERA at home is third best in baseball. Chris Bassitt gets the ball for Oakland and he is having a good year with a 3.84 ERA but the home/road splits tell the story as he has posted a 3.06 ERA at home but has a 4.53 ERA in 10 road starts. 10* (926) Chicago Cubs |
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08-04-19 | Reds v. Braves -121 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -121 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Atlanta looks to clinch the series with a win on Sunday and the matchup and the line makes it very playable. The Braves won Game Three on Saturday in extra innings after squandering a 3-0 lead and they can carry that momentum forward into today. The Braves are 36-16 in their last 52 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Reds fell to 22-32 on the road with the loss yet are still short underdogs today and that is due to the starting pitching name. Cincinnati is 5-11 in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. Sonny Gray is the aforementioned pitching name as he is having a solid season but he is just 1-4 on the road and he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings in his lone start against the Braves this season. Julio Teheran posted a 1.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five July starts and looks to continue his home domination where he has a 2.26 ERA in 10 starts. 10* (952) Atlanta Braves |
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08-03-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -106 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Texas held on for a 5-4 win last night in the opening game of this series as the bullpen nearly squandered a 5-1 lead and another gem performance from Lance Lynn. The Rangers remain seven games out in the American League Wild Card race so while those chances are slim of making a big move, Texas indicated it is not giving up and the remainder of this series is big as the Rangers travel to Cleveland and Milwaukee after this. The Rangers are 42-20 in their last 62 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Detroit is not putting a scare into anyone with its 32-73 record yet comes into this game as nearly even money. The Tigers are 2-6 on this current roadtrip and going back, they are 21-60 in their last 81 road games against teams with a winning home record. We have a lot of respect for Matthew Boyd as do the linesmakers for setting this line where it is but there is no reason it should be this short based on his strikeout ability. He has struggled on the road with a 4.50 ERA and prior to a pair of quality outings, he posted a 6.62 ERA in his six previous starts. He is 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA in seven starts against Texas and the Tigers are 0-8 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. Adrian Sampson has had a tough run but the schedule has not been in his favor with four straight road games. He is solid at home with a 3.36 ERA and the Tigers have been absolutely anemic against right-handers this season, ranking dead last in wRC+. 10* (926) Texas Rangers |
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08-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees -122 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees will be out for some payback this weekend. They were able to salvage the series finale in Boston last Sunday but still dropped the series three games to one. They have a seven-game lead in the American League East over Boston which seems pretty comfortable but New York does not want to make this division interesting and winning the opener would be a big start. The Yankees are 55-17 in their last 72 home games against teams with a winning record. Since that series finale loss to New York, the Red Sox have yet to win as they were swept at home against Tampa Bay and the pitching has been abysmal during this losing streak as they have allowed an average of 8.0 rpg and while the Yankees poor pitching gets more press, the Boston pitching is even worse as its 4.74 ERA is 20th in baseball and it has reared its ugly head the last four games. James Paxton has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees as his 4.72 ERA is not what was expected. His splits tell a different story which helps here as he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in eight road starts but he has a 3.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 home starts. One of those home starts came against Boston and he allowed no runs on two hits in eight innings. Eduardo Rodriguez counters for Boston and he has been on a decent run as he has won five straight starts including one against New York last weekend. But it was his worst of the bunch and in his last six starts against the Yankees, he has a 5.87 ERA. 10* (966) New York Yankees |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -111 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with St. Louis on Tuesday and the Cubs were able to even up the series with a 2-0 shutout win last night behind a strong pitching performance from Kyle Hendricks. The Cardinals will try to win the rubber match against their longtime division rivals as the teams are tied for first place in the National League Central with two months remaining in the regular season. Before Wednesday, the home team had won all 10 of the meetings in the season series and we see that resuming tonight. St. Louis has won 13 of its last 18 games while the Cubs improved to just 21-32 on the road which is the second worst road record in the National League only ahead of Miami. The Cubs are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Jack Flaherty get the ball for the Cardinals and he has been red hot. He has posted a 1.48 ERA over his past four starts, with seven walks and 30 strikeouts during that span. He has been up and down against the Cubs but has a 1.80 ERA in two career home starts. Jon Lester has been pitching well also but has not been nearly as hot over his four-game stretch and despite a solid out in Milwaukee in his last start, he possesses a 4.42 ERA on the road. 10* (904) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-31-19 | Astros v. Indians +120 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 120 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. This line came out late due to Zach Plesac making a late start over Adam Plutko. The Astros took the opener of this series last night with a 2-0 win behind a gem from Justin Verlander. It was the second straight win for Houston to remain eight games ahead of Oakland in the American League West. The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. It was the second straight loss for the Indians as they are now three games behind Minnesota in the American League Central. Cleveland has been playing its best baseball of the season as it is 18-6 over its last 24 games and going back, the Indians are 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss. Plesac has been brilliant since entering the rotation as he has a 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 11 starts and that is with a start in Baltimore where he allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings. He has been strong at home with a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five starts with Cleveland winning four of those. Many will question whether his strong ERA can continue to stave off his 5.10 xFIP over the long term. Opposing batters have hit him hard on just 37.4 percent of batted balls, and he is limiting fly balls to 37.8 percent, with a 42.4 percent ground ball rate. Houston counters with Jose Urquidy who will be making just his fifth career start. After a pair lackluster outings to open, he has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts covering 13 innings. This will be his biggest road test of the season thus far. 10* (968) Cleveland Indians |
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07-30-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The home team has dominated this series this season, winning all nine meetings, and we can expect that to continue in this series opener. The Cubs snapped a 1-5 run with a win at Milwaukee on Sunday as the 11 runs scored were the most since July 4th as this offense has been in a slump, averaging just 4.3 rpg in the 15 games between those 11-run efforts. Chicago is favored tonight and has no business being the favorite with its 20-31 road record, including a 5-14 record against divisional opponents. Additionally, the Cubs are 7-16 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning home record. St. Louis lost the final two games of its series against Houston which put a halt to a 12-2 run that temporarily put it into first place in the National League Central. The Cardinals have won four straight series openers and are banking on Adam Wainwright to keep that going, his last two starts have not been good but both were on the road where he possesses a 7.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 starts. At home however, he has a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Yu Darvish put together a pair of good starts after the break but allowed four runs in six innings last time out against the Giants. His 4.07 ERA on the road is nothing is nothing special nor is the Cubs 3-7 record in his 10 starts on the highway. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-29-19 | Diamondbacks +101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Arizona looks to salvage the series finale on Monday and earn a split which would be big as it heads to New York to face the Yankees for a two-game set. Now at .500 on the season, the Diamondbacks are very much alive in the Wild Card race in the National League, sitting 3.5 games out. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Miami has won four of its last five games but still possesses the worst record in the National League as well as the worst home record at 20-33. The Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Caleb Smith gets the ball for Miami and he is having a fine season with a 3.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and he has allowed three runs or less in four straight starts. He is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, beating the White Sox on Tuesday as he allowed just two hits, two walks and one run in seven innings, striking out nine. Arizona is second in baseball in hitting lefties and third in slugging percentage. Merrill Kelly counters for Arizona and while he is coming off an awful start against Baltimore, he did allow three runs or less in eight of his previous nine starts. He also has the edge of never having faced Miami. 10* (953) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-28-19 | Giants -111 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We won with the Padres last night but will be going against them today as the advantageous pitching matchup on Saturday goes opposite for them, on Sunday. San Diego partially halted a 3-10 run with the 5-1 victory while snapping an eight-game home losing streak. The offense has averaged just 3.6 rpg over its last 10 games and the Padres are 2-7 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is still 17-5 in its last 22 games and remains very much in the hunt in the National League Wild Card race. The offense has managed just four runs over the last three games but we can expect a breakout here. The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Madison Bumgarner is still rumored to be on the trading block but that is becoming more unlikely with San Francisco back in playoff contention. He has been exceptional of late with a 2.00 ERA over his last six starts with the Giants suffering just one loss in that stretch. The Giants are 6-1 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record. Adrian Morejon has made just one career start and it lasted only 2.1 innings. The Giants are 5-0 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on teams batting .165 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 150-85 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) San Francisco Giants |
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07-27-19 | Giants v. Padres -129 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This line came out late due to the Padres late starting pitching announcement. The Giants roll continues as they have now won 17 of their last 21 games and are sitting just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They are the hottest team in baseball that has come quietly without a lot of fanfare but find themselves in a tough spot tonight. San Diego has lost 10 of its last 13 games including four straight at home dating back to its last homestand and going back further, the Padres have lost their last eight home games. That is keeping this number down however in what is a favorable pitching spot. Cal Quantrill has pitched to a 3.76 ERA this season in 52.2 innings, 41.1 of which have been in the role of a starter. He has a 1.18 WHIP, possesses great control and has strikeout upside. On the other side, Shaun Anderson has been poor with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts which includes a 5.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in seven road starts and yet he has only two losses on the entire season. This is due to above average run support that includes 7.8 rpg over his last five starts. This production will not last. 10* (964) San Diego Padres |
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07-26-19 | Yankees -122 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off his worst career start as he allowed seven first inning runs and 12 runs overall in just 3.1 innings to hand Boston a 19-3 victory. The Yankees have allowed 54 runs over their last five games and they hope to have that come to an end tonight which is more than possible. The Yankees are 30-6 in their last 36 games after allowing nine runs or more. Boston has now won three of its last four games and is now just one game out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox are 7-15 in their last 22 home games after a win by 12 runs or more. James Paxton has not been the pitcher the Yankees had hoped when acquired from Seattle but he has had more ups than downs. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last seven starts and the Yankees are 6-1 in his last seven starts with four days of rest. Andrew Cashner was acquired from Baltimore and his two starts in Boston have been anything but good as he has allowed nine runs over 11 innings and those were against the Blue Jays and Orioles. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are batting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) New York Yankees |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox +128 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Game of the Week. After dropping two of three games against the Yankees, Minnesota is in a tough letdown spot hitting the road for a four-game set against the White Sox. It has been a struggle of late as the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games while going 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago lost two of three against Miami to open this 10-game homestand and the White Sox are still a respectable 26-22 at home. The White Sox are 15-5 in home games against division opponents this season. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago and after posting a bad outing in his last start prior to the All-Stat Break, he has posted two straight quality starts. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season and taking out two poor starts against the Cubs, his Era drops to 2.33 in his other 17 starts. The White Sox are 7-1 in his last eight starts following a quality outing in his last start. Jose Berrios is having another successful season but he has been unable to go far of late as he has tossed just 15.2 innings over his last three starts. Here, we play on teams after scoring one run or less going up against an opponent after scoring and allowing six runs or more two straight games. This situation is 52-27 (65.8 percent) since 1997. Additionally, we play against American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg against a pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better, after scoring and allowing six runs or more two straight games. This situation is 49-24 (67.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Chicago White Sox |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -132 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -132 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Texas snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Seattle last night as it jumped on the Mariners for six runs in the first three innings to cruise from there. The Rangers are back to a game over .500 and are 6.5 games back for the final Wild Card spot in the American League with still a third of the season left. Texas is 16-6 this season as a favorite of -150 or less while going 4-1 in its last five games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Seattle has lost three of four games while going a miserable 4-16 over its last 20 games. The Mariners 32 home losses are third most in the American League and going back, they are 8-24 in their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record. Mike Leake was unable to get out of the first inning two starts back against the Angels and faced them in his next start and nearly tossed a perfect game. We can expect him to regress after that effort as he has been wildly inconsistent all season. Mike Minor is coming off a pair of average outings but both were against the Astros, one of the best hitting teams in baseball. He has dominated Seattle in two outings, allowing just three runs in 13 innings while striking out 24. 10* (915) Texas Rangers |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Plays. Cincinnati blew a three-run lead last night in Milwaukee but managed to pull out the win thanks to a two-run ninth inning. The Reds are still just 20-29 on the road for the season and are well back in the Wild Card race in the National League. Cincinnati is 2-10 against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season. The Brewers are two games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and just a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Milwaukee is 30-22 at home while going 15-3 in its last 18 games off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Zach Davies has quietly put together a sensational season as he has a 2.79 ERA in 20 starts and that Era is fifth lowest in the National League. He has been exceptionally hot of late with a 0.77 ERA in his past four outings, covering 23.1 innings. The Brewers are 22-7 in his last 29 home starts against teams with a losing record. Tanner Roark counters for the Reds and he is having a strong season with a 3.97 ERA but a 1.37 WHIP shows it has not been great. He has now gone four straight starts without a quality outing and he has a 7.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last three starts. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees had a five-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Colorado yesterday and head out on a seven-game roadtrip. They have been solid on the road for sure but they have no business being a road favorite here based on who they are facing and the pitching matchup. The Yankees are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Minnesota has opened this homestand with a 2-4 record but it is coming off a win on Sunday to maintain its three-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. The Twins are 30-19 at home and they are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Martin Perez takes the hill for Minnesota and while he has struggled on the road, he has a 3.49 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. The Twins are 5-1 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while the Yankees are hitting just .241 on the road against left-handed starters. C.C. Sabathia is a similar pitcher where he has excelled at home but struggled on the road where he has a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven road starts. The Yankees are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record while Minnesota is 19-6 against starting pitchers who gives up one or more homeruns per start this season. 10* (914) Minnesota Twins |
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07-21-19 | Nationals v. Braves -145 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Atlanta has lost two of the first three games of this series with Washington but still holds a 5.5-game lead over the Nationals in the National League East. Evening the series and upping that lead would be big for the Braves which are 20-8 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is just one game over .500 on the road after two of the three wins in Atlanta and going back, the Nationals are 19-32 (-against the money line after five or more consecutive road games. Atlanta gives the ball to Kevin Gausman, who started for Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday and struck out 10 in seven innings while allowing two runs. He was making a rehab start in his recovery from plantar fasciitis in his right foot and this is his first start for the Braves since June 10th. Joe Ross will be making his first start for the Nationals after 17 bullpen appearances and spending some time down in the minors. Here, we play against National League underdogs that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse, after allowing four runs or less three straight games. This situation is 33-6 (84.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Atlanta Braves |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Cincinnati built a 7-0 lead yesterday but allowed 10 runs in the sixth inning and a late rally fell one run short. The Reds have now lost four straight games and are now just one game over .500 at home but the line is in their favor with their ace taking the hill. St. Louis has won three straight games to keep pace with the Cubs in the National League Central, 2.5 games out. The Cardinals are still four games under .500 on the road and going back, they are 8-19 against the money line in their last 27 games after scoring nine runs or more. Luis Castillo is having a great season with a 2.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 19 starts which includes a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts. He has tossed three straight quality starts and the Reds are 15-7 in his last 22 home starts. Miles Mikolas gets the ball for St. Louis and he is coming off one of his best outings of the season as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Pirates. That was at home though and he has a 7.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine road starts. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off two straight road wins against a division rival going up against an opponent off a one run loss versus a division rival. This situation is 44-18 (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-19-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles +230 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 230 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Boston took three of four to start the week against Toronto as it remains two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox have been much better on the road than at home and that is playing into this line which is overpriced. The Orioles have not been hitting well since the All-Star break but snapped out of that with a 9-2 victory in their most recent game against Washington on Wednesday. That snapped a three-game slide and their best starter takes the hill tonight as John Means gets the ball and the All-Star is coming off one of his worst outings of the season as Tampa Bay touched him up for six runs in six innings five days ago. He has a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and that drops to a 2.50 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home where his five wins account to over a quarter of the Orioles wins at home. David Price is having a solid season but only three of 10 road starts have been quality outings and Boston is just 5-5 in those starts which does not justify this number. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -128 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Oakland has won six straight games and is 22-7 over its last 29 games to move to 4.5 games of the Astros in the American League West. Additionally, they are in a tie with the Indians for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. While the A's have been surging, Minnesota has been in a bit of a slump including losses in three straight games. After having a commanding lead in the American League Central, the Twins are just four games ahead of Cleveland, which has won four in a row. Going back, the Twins are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for Minnesota and he is coming off a poor outing against the Indians where he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings. He has been solid at home with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts and the Twins are 9-1 in his last 10 starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. Mike Fiers counters for Oakland and he has been on a role with 10 straight quality outings. Most of those dominant starts have come at home however and overall, he has a 5.03 ERA on the road. Here, we play against teams after a game where they hit five or more home runs, starting a pitcher who gave up earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 32-18 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) Minnesota Twins |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +110 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Game of the Week. Arizona won the first game of this two-game series 9-2 on Tuesday night, beating Rangers ace Lance Lynn which snapped a two-game skid for the Diamondbacks. While well out of the National League West race, they are still just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the National League and that is playing into this line for sure. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers have lost nine of their past 13 games after reaching a season-high 10 games above .500, although they are also chasing a Wild Card spot. Texas is just four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and despite three straight home losses, the Rangers are 31-20 at home yet some into tonight as home underdogs. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Jesse Chavez has pitched well since entering the rotation and while he is coming off his worst outing, that came against the third best hitting team in baseball. Texas has won both of his home starts this season. Robbie Ray is known for strikeout potential but he has been inconsistent beyond that with a 4.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his 12 road starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in his last five starts with four days of rest. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 67-31 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Texas Rangers |
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07-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -128 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cubs lost the opener of this series on Monday 6-3 as they blew a 3-1 lead by allowing five runs over the final four innings. Despite the loss, the Cubs are 50-18 in their last 68 home games against teams with a losing record while going 14-4 revenging a loss as a home favorite this season. The Reds snapped a 1-4 streak with the win yesterday and it was just their 19th road win of the season. Cincinnati has lost five of its last seven games following a win. Alec Mills will be making his season debut for the Cubs. Though he has not looked great this season at Triple-A Iowa, he is capable of missing bats and his 6-2 record is an indication that he has at least kept his team in most games. He has given up at least four earned in four of his last 10 starts, but he has allowed two or fewer in five more. Anthony DeSclafani counters for Cincinnati and he has struggled with a 4.26 ERA in 17 starts including a 4.63 ERA in nine road starts. The Reds are 6-13 in his last 19 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game while the Cubs are 18-5 in home games against a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. 10* (906) Chicago Cubs |
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07-15-19 | White Sox -115 v. Royals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The White Sox will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak after getting swept at the Oakland A's over the weekend. The Royals took two of three against the Tigers but dropped the finale on Sunday and comes in at just 18-29 at home. Lucas Giolito will start the opener of a four-game series in Kansas City on Monday and this is his first start since prior to the All-Star Break so he is extremely fresh. He got lit up in his last outing against the Cubs but faces a favorite opponent tonight. He has overpowered the Royals in four starts this season, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. He's racked up 34 strikeouts in 25 innings in those outings. Over his career against Kansas City, he is 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts. He is opposed by Jakob Junis who has been up and down this season, mostly the latter. He has a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the season and his numbers are home are slightly worse, a 5.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over 10 starts. Here, we play against American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game. This situation is 40-16 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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07-14-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Sunday Star Attraction. The Dodgers snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 11-2 win yesterday against Chris Sale to improve to 24-21 on the road. Clearly, they are a much better home team than road team and going back, the Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five Interleague road games. With the loss, Boston snapped a five-game winning streak as the offense was held in check for the first time in a long time. The Red Sox averaged 8.2 rpg during that winning streak and they are in a good spot for a bounce back. Los Angeles hands the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu who is having a remarkable season. He has been unbeatable at home, literally, as the Dodgers are 9-0 in his nine home starts but are just 3-5 in his eight road outings. Going back, the Dodgers are 3-15 in his last 18 road starts against teams with a winning record. David Price counters for Boston and he is also having a very solid season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and both of those averages go down at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are 25-5 in his last 30 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 5.0 or more rpg against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better with a starting pitcher allowing 1.75 or fewer walks per start. This situation is 40-19 (67.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Boston Red Sox |
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07-13-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals lost the series opener last night to make it three straight losses going back before the All-Star Break and they are now three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is still a solid 26-20 at home and going back, the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Arizona is now a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League after its fourth straight win but it has a challenge tonight. The Diamondbacks are 4-15 in their last 19 games after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. While his numbers do not jump off the paper, Dakota Hudson has had a solid season in his first in the rotation. He has a 3.51 ERA and that is mostly due to consistency as in 17 starts, he has allowed more than three earned runs only once. After allowing eight home runs in his first four starts, Hudson has allowed just five home runs over his last 13 starts. Additionally, he has posted four straight quality outings at home and the Cardinals are 6-2 in his eight home starts. Merrill Kelly has had a decent season but not nearly as consistent and he has struggled on the road to a 4.94 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 10 starts. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Game of the Month. Cleveland closed the first half with six straight wins to move to within 5.5 games of the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians have made up a decent amount of ground since mid-June and have an ideal chance to shrink the deficit even more this weekend. They are 8-1 in their last nine series openers. The Twins have been the surprise of the American League but they have faltered of late, going 9-11 over their last 20 games. Mike Clevinger made a pair of starts after getting activated and they were dreadful but he bounced back in his previous start before the break by blanking the Royals over six innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out nine. All three of those starts were on the road and prior to getting hurt, he allowed no runs in two starts at home covering 12 innings. Kyle Gibson is having a decent but unspectacular season with a 4.09 ERA overall including a 4.47 ERA in nine road starts. He has a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts against Cleveland. Here, we play on American League home favorites of -110 or higher with an OBP of .320 or worse against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or better, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 58-17 (77.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Cleveland Indians |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers +129 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 129 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Rangers slumped a bit heading into the All-Star Break but they still enter Thursday just three games behind Cleveland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The home success has put them where they are as they are 29-17 at Globe Life Park in Arlington and going back, the Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Houston has a comfortable 7.5-game lead in the American League West over Oakland thanks to an American League best 33-14 record at home. The Astros are five games over .500 on the road however, they are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Lance Lynn will start Thursday for Texas and he has been on a roll. He is second on the Rangers in bWAR (3.9) and he is 5-0 with a 2.85 ERA over his last seven starts with 53 strikeouts and just four walks over 47.1 innings. Houston counters with Framber Valdez and he has not been as good. After opening June with a pair of quality starts, he closed June with a 15.63 ERA in his last two starts covering just 6.1 innings. The Rangers are 7-2 in their last nine home games against left-handed starters. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher off a one run win over a division rival, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 46-24 (65.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Texas Rangers |
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07-07-19 | Rockies -135 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Arizona has won the first two games of this series to pull even with Colorado in the Wild Card standings in the National League as both teams sit at .500 with one game left heading into the break. This has not been a god spot for the Diamondbacks which are 6-16 in their last 22 home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Rockies have lost five in a row as well as 10 of their last 14 games and will be looking for their four All-Stars at the top of their batting order to get something going before the All-Star break. Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and David Dahl are a combined 4-28 with 12 strikeouts in the series. They get to do so against Alex Young who is making just his second ever start and his first at pitcher-friendly Chase Field after his debut was at AT&T Park against the Giants, the worst hitting team in baseball. German Marquez counters for Colorado who has been excellent on the road with a 3.06 ERA and an even better 0.88 WHIP. The Rockies are 13-3 in his last 16 starts with four days of rest. Here, we play on National League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 61-15 (80.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Colorado Rockies |
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07-06-19 | Cubs v. White Sox +112 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Cubs have opened just 2-5 on this current roadtrip and are 17-26 on the road for the season compared to 29-16 at home. Jose Quintana is responsible for both of those wins but the rest of the staff has been trash as Chicago has allowed 8.6 rpg in the other five games. The Cubs are 5-13 in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning home record. The White Sox are coming off a pair of series wins at home over the Twins and Tigers and improved play at Guaranteed Rate Field, where they are 13-6 in their past 19 games, has helped the club approach the break-even mark. Chicago is a respectable six games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League and the White Sox are 5-0 in their last five games following an off day. Jon Lester has had a decent yet underperforming season and he has really struggled of late. He had a 1.16 ERA through his first seven games but since then he has posted a 7.02 ERA over his last nine starts. After opening the season with three straight quality road starts, the highway has not been kind to him as in the four starts since then, he has posted a 9.15 ERA covering 20.2 innings. Lucas Giolito has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts and while the one bad outing was against the Cubs, it was on the road. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight home starts where the White Sox have won his last six. Here, we play against teams after a win by eight runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more two straight games. This situation is 32-13 (71.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (930) Chicago White Sox |
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07-05-19 | Marlins +170 v. Braves | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Atlanta is coming off a huge series against the Phillies where it took the final two games to maintain a six-game lead over Washington in the National League East and increase its lead to 6.5 games over Philadelphia. This could spell letdown tonight yet the Braves are significant favorites. Miami has dropped four straight games following a three-game sweep in Washington to start the week but it is in good position to steal Game One with a solid pitching matchup. Jordan Yamamoto has been excellent since entering the rotation despite coming off his worst outing. He is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts with the Marlins winning all four of those. Julio Teheran counters for the Braves and after a very solid stretch, the end of June was not good as he posted an 11.91 ERA and 2.74 WHIP over his last three starts. Overall, only six of his 18 starts have been quality outings. Here, we play against National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (that are averaging 5.0 rpg on the season, after scoring 12 runs or more. This situation is 31-21 (59.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (955) Miami Marlins |
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07-04-19 | Angels v. Rangers -111 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Texas play yesterday turned into no action for most as Griffin Canning was scratched by the Angels late in the day. The Angels won for the second consecutive game since honoring No. 45 to move back to a game over .500 but going back, the Angels are 15-37 in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record. Texas has now lost four straight games but is still just a game and a half out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rangers are 15-6 in their last 21 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Part of the reason for the play against Texas yesterday was because of Canning who has been good but only one of five road starts has resulted in a quality outing. Lance Lynn has been on a roll with quality outings in nine of his last 10 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts. After going 4-0 in June with a 2.90 ERA, Lynn will be trying to win four straight starts for the first time in just over two years. 10* (922) Texas Rangers |
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07-03-19 | Angels v. Rangers +106 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Angels won a very emotional game last night in honor of Tyler Skaggs but are still a game under .500 on the road yet come into tonight as a significant road favorite. The win snapped a three-game losing streak which came after four straight wins and despite the victory, the Angels are 9-23 in their last 32 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Texas has lost three straight games following a six-game winning streak but it still comes in at 28-16 at home while winning nine of its last 13 games following a loss. Ariel Jurado has been solid since entering the Rangers rotation as he has had just one bad outing in eight starts and take that one game away against the Reds and his ERA is 2.96 in his other seven starts. Jaime Barria is making the start over Canning and it is still a play. He has a 5.55 ERA over six games and two starts. Here, we play against American League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.40 to 1.500 on the season. This situation is 93-52 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) Texas Rangers |
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07-02-19 | Astros v. Rockies -126 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Houston was on a 2-9 slide before sweeping the Mariners over the weekend but gets a tough matchup to try and build off of that. The Astros have dropped six of their last seven road games to fall to a pedestrian 22-19 on the highway. Colorado is coming off a home split with the Dodgers but it is still a solid 24-12 over its last 36 home games after a 0-5 start to open the season. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies and while he has a 4.29 ERA, he backs that up with a 1.21 WHIP. Colorado is 25-7 in his last 32 starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Jose Urquidy missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery but returned to pitch 57.1 innings of 2.35 ERA ball in Class-A last season. This year, he has posted a combined 3.40 ERA with 12.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9. Urquidy is more of a fly-ball pitcher, so drawing his first MLB assignment at Coors Field is not necessarily ideal. 10* (928) Colorado Rockies |
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07-01-19 | Brewers v. Reds -103 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee closed out a 5-5 homestand with a pair of wins over the Pirates and it hits the road where it has lost six of its last eight games on the highway. Additionally, the Brewers are 4-12 in their last 16 road games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record. Cincinnati opened its homestand with a series win over the Cubs to improve to 21-18 at home on the season. The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati sends Tyler Mahle to the hill who possesses a 4.35 ERA but his 1.22 WHIP is a better indicator of how he has been pitching. He has had bad luck on the road with the Reds going 0-10 in his 10 road starts but they are 4-1 and he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in those five games. The Brewers counter with Adrian Houser who has made three spot starts. In his last outing, Houser needed 64 pitches to record six outs and in those three starts, he has a 9.00 ERA. Here, we play against National League road teams with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season after a combined score of four runs or less two straight games. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +106 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 106 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Giants' homestand, which began with two losses in three games against Colorado, hasn't been what they needed to get any sort of momentum going. They are 2-4 heading into the finale following a 4-3 loss yesterday after nearly coming back from a 4-0 deficit in the ninth inning. Arizona remains two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League as it has won five of its last seven games but faces a tough test today. Madison Bumgarner had tossed five straight quality outings before getting lit up against the Dodgers two starts back. He bounced back with another quality outing in his last starts against the Rockies and he has been much better here with a 3.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in nine home starts. Robby Ray has been decent this season yet inconsistent. He has struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 while allowing 11 runs and 13 hits in 18.1 innings. The Giants are 5-1 in their last six games against starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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06-29-19 | A's v. Angels -140 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Game of the Week. The Angels had a four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 7-2 loss despite outhitting Oakland 8-6. The loss also snapped a five-game home winning streak against teams with a winning record and they are in good shape to get back in the win column with Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons back in the lineup after having last night off. Oakland has won three of four on this current roadtrip but it is still just .500 on the road and going back, Oakland is 2-5 in its last seven games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Tyler Skaggs gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been on a roll. In a win over Toronto on June 18, he gave up just one run and three hits in 7.1 innings. In his latest start, he threw five scoreless innings in a 6-4 victory over St. Louis on Sunday. The Angels are 5-0 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. Oakland counters with Brett Anderson who got crushed last time out, allowing seven runs in three innings against Tampa Bay. Oakland is 4-9 in his last 13 starts after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher allowing less than 1.75 walks per start after a game where the bullpen threw eight or more innings. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Los Angeles Angels |
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