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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-17 | Brewers +162 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 162 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Dodgers continued their torrid run last night by winning the series opener 3-1 as they allowed just one hit, a home run allowed by Kenta Maeda in the second inning and that was it. The domination at home continues as Los Angeles is 52-14 including a 43-9 record over its last 52 games. The Dodgers are chasing history as they became the fourth fastest team to reach 90 wins and they are going to be a publicly bet team for the rest of the season no matter the price. Milwaukee remains three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central as Chicago also lost last night. The Brewers are 3.5 games out of the National League Wild Card and while most games against Los Angeles may not be considered winnable, this one is. Zach Davies opened the season by allowing 11 runs in his first two starts but he has posted a 3.66 ERA since then over 24 starts. He has been at his best on the road where he is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and this includes five straight outings where he has not allowed a single earned run. The Dodgers hand the ball to Ross Stripling who is making a spot start in place of Alex Wood and he is on a short leash of four innings or 55 pitches. 10* (913) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-26-17 | Royals +144 v. Indians | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
While the season is not yet over for Kansas City, it continues to be stuck on an inconsistent run where it has fallen seven games behind the Indians in the American League Central. The Royals are still well within range in the Wild Card race as they are just 1.5 games behind the Twins but also trail the Mariners and are tied with the Angels making each game important at this point. The Indians have won two straight games but have been mediocre at home with a 4-5 record over their last nine games at Progressive Field. Jason Hammel got off to a rough start to the season with a 6.18 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his first 10 starts but it has been a significant turnaround since then as he has put up a 3.93 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last 15 starts where he has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of those with 69 percent of those being quality outings. Hammel has a 3.37 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this year, all quality performances. Cleveland counters with Mike Clevinger who has been just the opposite. After posting a 2.73 ERA through his first 13 games, he has put up a 7.66 ERA in his last six games as fatigue seems to be settling in. The Royals are 15-4 in their last 19 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (925) Kansas City Royals |
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08-25-17 | Tigers v. White Sox +148 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 148 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Here is another situation where the starting pitching is dictating the line and it is not justified. Overall, Detroit may have the starting pitching edge here but not based on the splits and as far as the overall teams, Chicago is the worst team in the American League but the Tigers are not far behind as they are just five games better and they are actually five games worse when talking home/road split records. The White Sox took three of five games against Minnesota to open this homestand and they are 4-0 in their last four games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers won yesterday against the Yankees in a game that was overshadowed by three separate fighting instances which closed out a 2-4 homestand. Detroit has the third worst road record in the American League no thanks to seven straight losses on the highway. The Tigers have also dropped seven straight games after scoring five or more runs. Justin Verlander takes the hill and he is a publicly backed pitcher thus the overpriced moneyline. He has struggled on the road this season as he has a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 road starts with Detroit going 3-10 in those games. Additionally, the Tigers are 1-8 in his last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. Since re-entering the rotation, Miguel Gonzalez has been spot on as six of seven starts have been quality outings with only one bad start taking place in Boston. In three home starts since his return, he has a 2.25 ERA and those games came against the Astros, Indians and Dodgers. Overall, six of eight home starts have been quality outings. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox |
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08-25-17 | Twins +167 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-1 | Win | 167 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a line that is hard to get on board with as Toronto has the better pitching matchup but it is far from the better team. As mentioned in the past, these lines show how much starting pitching can dictate the numbers but anything can happen after that pertaining to bullpens, defense, etc. so this is where the value takes precedence over one particular matchup. The Blue Jays are coming off a difficult 1-5 roadtrip which pretty much knocked them out of the playoff picture as they are now five games out of the American League Wild Card with seven teams ahead of them. Toronto has won just two of its last eight series openers. The Twins opened their roadtrip with a five-game series against the White Sox which resulted in a disappointing 3-2 series loss. They still hold down the second Wild Card slot as they are ahead of the Angels, Mariners and Royals by a half-game and the Rangers by a full game. Minnesota is 34-27 on the road and it has won five of its last six games on the road against teams with a winning home record. Bartolo Colon has come in and pitched well for the Twins after getting let go by the Braves after posting an 8.14 ERA in 3 starts. He has allowed four runs or less in all seven starts with Minnesota including three runs or less in all three road starts where he has a solid 2.95 ERA. Toronto hands the ball to J.A. Happ who is having another good season but he has been inconsistent especially at home where only four of nine starts have been quality outings. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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08-24-17 | Padres +205 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 205 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The Cardinals snapped their three-game slide with a win last night but it has been a rough stretch for them as they have gone just 3-6 over their last nine games to fall 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is just two games over .500 yet is laying a number that is normally placed on teams with much better records and more dominant advantages. San Diego has had a tough season but it has played a lot better over the second half as it has gone 23-22 over its last 45 games which may be below average for some teams but when a team is getting big underdog numbers, it is well above average. In this case. The Padres are +10.2 units over this stretch and continue to be undervalued. More recent, the Padres are 9-4 in their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Carlos Martinez is part of the reason this number is so big but he has not been very dominant this season. He has a 3.57 ERA in 25 starts which is good but not great and the Cardinals have gone only 13-12 in those games. He has been hurt by the long ball this season as he has allowed 22 home runs including 12 over his last nine starts. The Cardinals are 1-4 in his last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Luis Perdomo gets the ball for San Diego and he has been up and down this season but is catching a good number in a good spot because the Padres are facing a righty starter as they have struggled against lefties, going 0-4 in his four starts against opposing southpaws. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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08-24-17 | Red Sox v. Indians +149 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 149 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Cleveland ace last night and will play against the Boston ace tonight. These lines show how much starting pitching can dictate the numbers and then anything can happen after that pertaining to bullpens, defense, etc. so this is where the value takes precedence over one particular matchup. Cleveland won the opener of this four-game series but the Red Sox have taken the last two games to maintain their 4.5-game lead in the American League East. Minnesota lost last night as well so Cleveland still has a 4.5-game lead in the American League Central so this is a significant game for both sides. Chris Sale is coming off a rare loss and looks to bounce back from that defeat to the Yankees. He has arguably been the top pitcher in the American League, slightly ahead of Kluber, so his prices reflect that but this is a tough spot for him. Cleveland got to him for seven runs in five innings in the beginning of August and the Indians got to him for nine runs in 10.1 innings in two starts last season so he has struggled against this roster. In 28 career appearances against Cleveland, Sale is 5-7 with a 4.44 ERA which is his highest career ERA against any opponent where he has made more than two appearances. Trevor Bauer counters for the Indians and he has been on a roll as he has tossed five straight quality starts, posting a 1.54 ERA in those games. He has been solid at home and going back, the Indians are 10-3 in his last 13 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Great value with Bauer in this spot. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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08-23-17 | Rangers +138 v. Angels | Top | 7-5 | Win | 138 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Texas and Los Angeles have split the first two games of this four-game series and the Rangers will try and bounce back following a 10-1 shellacking last night. It has been a solid run for Texas which is 12-7 over its last 19 games to move to within three games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rangers have won five straight games against winning teams and are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Angels remain a half-game out of the Wild Card as they too have been playing well down the stretch. They are just 3-4 in their last seven home games and will be at a disadvantage tonight with the starting pitching. Andrew Heaney will be making his second start since returning from a 16-month absence due to a pair of surgeries including Tommy John. The first start did not go well as he allowed five runs in five innings against the Orioles as he allowed four home runs. He could settle down some at home but faces a Rangers offense that has been hitting lefties well and they have won four of their last five games against left-handed starters. Texas counters with Andrew Cashner and he is a big reason Texas is back in the playoff hunt. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, posting a 2.44 ERA over that stretch with six of those outings resulting in quality performances. His road record is not great but it is due to a lack of run support which should pick up tonight. 10* (973) Texas Rangers |
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08-23-17 | Red Sox +178 v. Indians | Top | 6-1 | Win | 178 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Red Sox won Game Two of this series last night to maintain their 4.5-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. They scored nine runs which was the eighth time that they have scored eight or more runs over their last 21 games, averaging 6.1 rpg over that stretch. Going back, Boston has won 11 of its last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Indians also have a 4.5-game lead in their division as their lead has been decreased by the Twins in the American League Central. Cleveland has not had a great home field edge this season as it is just four games over .500. Drew Pomeranz exited his start Friday against the Yankees with back spasms but he threw a bullpen session before the Red Sox game in Cleveland on Monday and is fine to make his next scheduled start tonight. He has been one of the most effective starters this season, as the lefty is 12-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 24 starts for the Red Sox. Cleveland is hitting just .220 against lefty pitching over its last 10 games and the Red Sox are 15-3 in his last 18 starts against teams with a winning record. Corey Kluber has been pitching at a high level although he is coming off an average outing against the Royals. He has gotten a bunch of run support of late but that should not happen here and he has had his struggles against Boston, posting a 4.78 ERA in nine games. The Red Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. 10* (969) Boston Red Sox |
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08-22-17 | Yankees v. Tigers +160 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Yankees trail Boston by 4.5 games in the American League East and have a 2.5-game lead for the top Wild Card spot as they continue their roadtrip. They took a four-game home-and-home against the Mets but lost two of three against Boston over the weekend and they are now four games under .500 on the highway. Detroit took the series finale on Sunday to salvage one game against the Dodgers, a team no one has been able to solve and it comes in right at .500 on the home field. Obviously, it has been a disappointment for the Tigers which are out of playoff contention but these are the teams and spots to play on as there is a lot of value to work with. They send Matthew Boyd to the hill and he has been average at best this season but he did put together a good stretch after coming back into the rotation in July prior to his last two outings. He faces a Yankees offense that is hitting just .236 against left-handed pitching which is No. 25 in baseball. The Tigers are 7-3 in his last 10 series opening starts. Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill for the Yankees and he has had a solid second half but he continues to struggle on the road where he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts with just five of those resulting in quality outings. Detroit is hitting .272 at home against right-handed pitching. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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08-22-17 | A's +150 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 150 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Baltimore won the opener of this series last night behind a big night from Adam Jones who hit a pair of home runs, part of four home runs from the Orioles. The win snapped a two-game slide as they remain in the hunt in the American League Wild Card race. Winning streaks have been few and far between as Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five games following a win. Oakland fell to 1-3 on this current roadtrip as the offense has been able to do nothing, scoring a grand total of seven runs over the four games. The A's have a chance to bust out tonight against Ubaldo Jimenez who has been horrible this season and has no business laying a number this high. He has a 6.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 20 starts with only four of those being quality outings. His numbers are even worse at home where he possesses a 6.61 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in nine starts and Baltimore has dropped his last seven outings against the American League West. Paul Blackburn will be making his tenth start for Oakland and it has been a solid rookie season. He has a 3.46 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with five of nine starts resulting in quality performances. This includes three of four on the road where he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. 10* (915) Oakland A's |
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08-21-17 | Rangers +134 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 134 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
The Rangers hit the road following a successful 7-3 homestand although it is coming off a disappointing four-game split against the White Sox. Texas is 11-6 over its last 17 games with five of those losses coming by just one run and sitting a game under .500, it is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League which happens to be occupied by the Angels. After dropping it opener in Baltimore, Los Angeles won both games over the weekend to culminate a 7-2 roadtrip. The Angels have been hot by winning 15 of their last 21 games but they have won just four of their last 14 series openers. Texas sends Cole Hamels to the hill and he is having a solid season with a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts, 10 of which have been quality outings. He has dominated the Angels this season as he has allowed just one run in two starts over 14.2 innings and going back, the Rangers are 14-4 in his last 18 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Angels counter with Tyler Skaggs who has been pitching well since returning to the rotation in early August. He has a 2.93 ERA in three starts however he has a 1.63 WHIP to go along with that and that is a big concern. The Angels are 2-5 in his last seven home starts. 10* (965) Texas Rangers |
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08-20-17 | Blue Jays +179 v. Cubs | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
The Blue Jays first trip to Wrigley Field since 2005 has not gone well as they have dropped the first two games in frustrating fashion. They trailed by a run going into the bottom of the eighth inning on Friday and lost another one-run game yesterday to fall five games under .500 and slipping to four games back in the American League Wild Card standings. The Cubs are just 8-9 over their last 17 games as both pitching and hitting have been inconsistent over this stretch. They are just five games over .500 at home and are overpriced today as they put their most unprofitable pitcher on the hill. Kyle Hendricks has been pitching well but has received no run support as Chicago has lost his last three starts while scoring just four runs in total. Going back, the Cubs have scored two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Marco Estrada got off to a terrible start this season but put together a nice run prior to his last start against Tampa Bay. Chicago is hitting just .246 against right-handed pitching this season which is ahead of only the Padres in the National League and while they are +7.8 units against lefties, they are -26.6 units against right-handed starters on the season. The Blue Jays salvage the series finale on Sunday. 10* (929) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-20-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +142 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 142 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
The Tigers could muster out only four hits last night as they got shut out by the Dodgers and wasted another strong home effort from Michael Fulmer. They are again catching a solid home number and we will back them a second straight day as they look to snap a six-game losing streak against the hottest team baseball has seen in a long time. The Dodgers are 52-9 over their last 61 games and they have already locked down another series win so we will step in front of them here in what looks like another pitching advantage for the home team. While Kenta Maeda is third on the team with 11 wins, he is No. 6 in the rotation of starters in ERA, ahead of only Brandon McCarthy. He has a 4.44 ERA on the road which is in fact the worst of the starting rotation and only one of his 10 road outings have been a quality performance. Justin Verlander counters for Detroit and he is coming off a rough outing against the Rangers but that was in 94-degree Texas heat where the humidity only added to it. He had tossed five straight quality starts prior to that including three straight starts at home where he has a 2.93 ERA and nine of his 12 starts have been quality. The Tigers are 12-5 in his last 17 home starts. 10* (926) Detroit Tigers |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins +137 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 137 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota took the opener of this series last night to keep pace with the Indians in the American League Central and while they deficit is six games, the loss by the Angels put the Twins into a tie with Los Angeles for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. They are 15-11 over their last 26 home games after a very poor start at Target Field and they have won nine of their last 12 overall. Arizona is now a game behind Colorado for the top Wild Card spot in the National League and is four games up on St. Louis, the closest team in pursuit. The Diamondbacks dropped to four games under .500 on the road and they have lost seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Twins turn to Jose Berrios who has been very up and down of late but his struggles have mostly come on the road. In 10 road starts, he is 4-4 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP but in seven home starts, he is 6-1with a 3.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Five of those starts have been quality outings and the Twins have won his last five home starts. Zack Greinke gets the ball for Arizona and he is getting the most public action of any team in baseball on Saturday. He has been on a roll but like Berrios, his success has come at home. He is 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 14 home starts but he is just 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 10 road starts with Arizona going 5-5 in those games. The most surprising is the fact that only four of those 10 starts have been quality performances. 10* (980) Minnesota Twins |
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08-19-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +149 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Dodgers continued their epic run last night with an 8-5 win in this series opener to improve to 51-9 over their last 60 games. They have crushed the books so stepping in front of this moneytrain can be scary but we are doing so this afternoon as Detroit is in a very good spot. The Tigers have dropped five straight games and last night, the defeat knocked them back to .500 at home. Despite that, the Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Michael Fulmer takes the hill for Detroit and he looks to bounce back from a pair of poor outings, one before his DL stint and one after. Both of those were on the road however and he has been solid at home with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 starts, nine of which have been quality outings. This includes a stretch of five straight and going back, the Tigers are 10-3 in his last 13 home starts against teams with a winning record. Hyun-Jin Ryu counters for the Dodgers and he has been the worst road pitcher on the staff as his four losses are the most on the team and his two wins are tied for fewest among qualified starters. Detroit has crushed lefties all season as it is first in the American League with a .285 and first in baseball with a .846 OPS and they got to Rich Hill last night so facing another a second straight day is a big edge. Going back, the Dodgers are 2-8 in Ryu's last 10 road starts. 10* (978) Detroit Tigers |
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08-18-17 | Angels +128 v. Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The Angels were off yesterday and maintained their half-game lead for the American League Wild Card second spot but there are four teams within a game and a half. They have been average on the road this season but have been playing better of late by going 7-2 over their last nine road games and have a very intriguing game tonight from a pitching standpoint. Baltimore is coming off a 4-6 roadtrip and is three games under .500 while sitting three games out of the Wild Card. A return home is what the Orioles need to try and make a run and even though they are a solid home team, they are overpriced in this particular spot. The Angels welcome back Andrew Heaney after being out for the past 13.5 months because of Tommy John surgery and another surgery for a misplaced nerve. He was expected to miss the entire season but he went through a perfect rehab and has come back during the stretch run. He posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2015 and made just one start in 2016 before going under the knife. During his rehab in six minor league outings, he posted a 2.60 ERA with 29 strikeouts and five walks in 27.2 innings including allowing one run in seven innings on 94 pitches in his last AAA start. The Orioles counter with Jeremy Hellickson who they picked up from the Phillies and his three starts have been progressively worse. His lone home start was outstanding but catches a hot Angels team that has won four straight games against right-handed starters. 10* (913) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-17-17 | Braves +168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 168 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The Braves evened this series at a game apiece on Tuesday but the Rockies erupted for 17 runs last night, making this a good spot for Atlanta to come out with a split. Despite the outburst last night, the Colorado offense has been struggling as it averaged 2.3 rpg in its previous eight games. The Rockies have scored double-digit runs 16 times previous to Wednesday and they have averaged just 4.6 rpg in the follow up games while going 7-9 in those games. The Braves hand the ball to Lucas Sims who is winless in three Major League starts but he has not pitched horribly as he has allowed 3, 4 and 4 earned runs in those games and two of those losses came by just one run. He was solid in the Atlanta farm system and prior to his call-up from Gwinnett, he posted a 3.75 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) with 132 strikeouts and 36 walks over 115.1 innings. Jeff Hoffman counters for Colorado and he is a surprisingly large favorite today despite some shaky results. This is the most he has been favored by all season and the Rockies are just 5-6 in his 11 starts as a favorite. He has struggled at home with a 6.15 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four starts pitching on one day of rest. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Astros | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks and Astros split the first two games of this four-game home-and-home series in Arizona and they head to Houston for the final two games. Arizona went 3-5 on its homestand but is still in good shape in the National League Wild Card as it is tied with Colorado and five games clear of the Cardinals and Brewers. Houston remains in control in the American League West with a 12.5-game lead over the Angels and it will be just a matter of time before it clinches the best record in the league barring a total meltdown. Charlie Morton gets the ball for the Astros and he has been in good form since rejoining the rotation after a month and a half with a 3.59 ERA in seven starts but that includes an ERA over four in four starts at home. His control is a bigger concern as he has walked 15 batters over this stretch. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Taijuan Walker who has been pitching well but not getting the win. Arizona has dropped his last six starts despite him allowing three runs or less in four of those including three on the road. All of those road losses were by a single run so they have been close to breaking through and we call for it here with in a contrarian spot with excellent value. 10* (927) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-16-17 | Pirates +113 v. Brewers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
The Pirates lost some ground last night as they dropped the series opener and are now three games behind Milwaukee and 4.5 games out of first place in the National League Central. This is a crucial game as they need to cut this gap before a pair of four-game series against the Cardinals and Dodgers. Milwaukee has won three straight games after a six-game slide and is in a very tough spot this afternoon. Gerrit Cole has picked his game up on the highway after a tough start. In his first seven road starts, he posted a 5.67 ERA and that included four quality outings which shows how bad the other starts were but in his last six road games, he has put up a 2.25 ERA. All six have been quality performances and the Pirates have won his last seven road starts. In addition, he has dominated the Brewers this season with three nearly identical outings of allowing one run over seven innings with a 23:4 combined K:BB ratio. Jimmy Nelson is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings against Cincinnati. He has been consistent for most of the season but Milwaukee has dropped four of his last five starts and it has also dropped four of his last five starts against the Pirates where he has posted a 5.73 ERA. 9* (903) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-15-17 | Braves +131 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 131 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The feel-good story from Monday came in Colorado where Chad Bettis made his return to the mound after being out for 11 months due to cancer and he was sensational, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory. The Rockies came in on a 1-5 slide but the win kept them tied with Arizona for the top spot in the National League Wild Card spot. The Braves won on Sunday to snap a five-game losing streak but gave it back last night as they were surprisingly shut out at Coors Field but we expect the offense to pick things back up tonight. Sean Newcomb has been on a good run, allowing three runs or less in four straight starts but he has been held winless since June 27 with Atlanta going 0-7 over his last seven starts. That is a main reason that Colorado is a huge public consensus tonight but Newcomb is in a good spot to keep his success going. Kyle Freeland is having a very good rookie season as he is 11-7 with a 3.70 ERA but his 1.39 WHIP is a concern and he has not pitched well under the lights. He is 9-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 daytime starts but just 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in nine nighttime starts. The Braves have averaged 4.5 rpg after getting shut out. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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08-15-17 | Pirates +107 v. Brewers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are both in the playoff mix with the Pirates sitting 4.5 games behind the Cubs and the Brewers two games better at 2.5 games out. Pittsburgh is coming off a series loss in Toronto over the weekend as the offense managed to score just three runs on Saturday and Sunday combined. After a day off Monday, the Pirates come in with a 7-2 record in their last nine series openers. The Brewers meanwhile have won two straight games as they won their series with the hapless Reds which are now 20-39 on the road. Milwaukee had lost six straight games prior to that and while the offense woke up over the weekend, they face a tough test tonight. Ivan Nova gets the ball for Pittsburgh and while he has been better at home than on the road, he has not been horrible as he possesses a 1.27 WHIP in 13 starts which is a better indication than his 4.73 ERA. He has a 3.60 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee. Milwaukee counters with Zach Davies who has been winning more but he been less effective with a 4.40 ERA and 1.40 ERA in 24 starts. Those numbers balloon to a 6.44 ERSA and 1.68 WHIP in 12 home starts and the only reason Milwaukee has won half of those, it is due to solid run support, something that cannot be expected tonight. 10* (953) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-15-17 | Mets +129 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Yankees won the opener of this four-game home-and-home series with the Mets last night as they overcame an early 2-0 deficit and scored the game winning runs in the eighth inning. The Yankees are still playing for much more than the Mets as they are on top of the Wild Card standings in the American League while sitting 4.5 games behind Boston in the East. The Mets are just playing out the string as their pitching has been decimated and they have traded away a good amount of offense. Still, this is the Subway Series and there are games they want nothing more to win. The lone remaining starting pitcher from Opening Day takes the hill tonight and getting Jacob deGrom at a decent underdog price is always worth a look. The Mets have gone 3-1 in his games as an underdog and he has been the most profitable pitcher with New York going 15-8 in his games, netting 4.4 units. 16 of his 23 starts have been quality outings so he has been very consistent. Sonny Gray will be making his third start as a Yankee and he tossed a pair of quality outings since coming over. New York lost both games as the offense gave him one run total and this will be his first start at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd so the pressure will be there. 10* (973) New York Mets |
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08-14-17 | Orioles v. Mariners +107 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The homestand did not start as Seattle hoped as a two-game lead over the Angels flipped into a two-game deficit after it got swept in the four-game set. The Mariners are now a game under .500 while falling behind Minnesota and Kansas City in the American League Wild Card standings. They are tied with the Rays and Baltimore is only a half-game behind them making this another very important series that could go a long way in deciding the playoffs. Seattle is still a game over .500 at home while going 10-3 in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore is off to a 3-4 start on this roadtrip and is doing just enough to remain in the race but the road has been an issue all season as it is 23-37 and those 23 wins are third fewest in the American League. Additionally, the Orioles are 11-23 in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning home record. Yovani Gallardo take the hill for Seattle and while he is not an ace, he is the lone member of Seattle's projected Opening Day rotation who is not on the disabled list so his presence is big. He has been decent as he has allowed three runs or less in four straight starts while the Mariners have won four of his last five starts against losing teams. Kevin Gausman had a four-game quality start streak snapped last time out against the Angels and he brings in a 5.86 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 12 road starts. His numbers are pretty even to those of Gallardo and he should not be laying anything on the road considering the Orioles are 5-11 in his last 16 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (916) Seattle Mariners |
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08-13-17 | Braves +170 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 170 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
The Braves will look to cool off the red-hot Cardinals and avoid a series sweep on Sunday. They have dropped five straight games heading into today and their once profitable season has diminished but they are in prime position here to snap the skid and head to Colorado off a victory. The Cardinals have pulled into a tie for first place with the Cubs in the National League Central following their eighth straight win yesterday as the offense continues to roll. They have averaged 8.0 rpg over this winning streak although they are coming off their lowest output yesterday and the pitching has been bailed out. St. Louis has allowed five runs or more in four straight games and it turns to Michael Wacha today. He has been on a solid short-term run by allowing four runs over his last three starts but for the season, the winning has not been consistent as St. Louis is just 11-10 in his 21 starts and more recent, the Cardinals are 2-7 in his last nine starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Braves counter with R.A. Dickey who has been on a solid run of his own. He has tossed seven quality outings over his last nine starts and when a knuckleballer gets into a groove, that can be tough on opposing teams. Atlanta has a better overall record in his starts and going back, the Braves are 8-2 in his last 10 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (959) Atlanta Braves |
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08-13-17 | Indians v. Rays +169 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
The Tampa Bay offense has dried up completely during this current homestand and the Rays are now eight games out of first place in the American League East. They have been shut out the last two days by Cleveland and in eight games on this homestand, they have failed to score a run five times while averaging a mere 1.0 rpg. Their own pitching has been solid as they have managed to win twice and while the task at hand today seems impossible, we are taking advantage of a great price. Cleveland is 4.5 games up on Minnesota in the American League Central as it has recovered from a 1-4 run prior to taking the last two games in this series. They had dropped six straight road games against teams with a winning home record and they catch a Rays team that has won six straight Game Fours. Corey Kluber is the reason for this big number and he has been on a roll by allowing three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. He was bailed out in his last game against the Rockies with Cleveland scoring four runs in the ninth inning to win and now he hits the road where he has not been nearly as good. Kluber has a 2.09 ERA at home but that goes up over a run and a half on the road to 3.66 which is still good but far from dominating. Austin Pruitt got hit hard by the Yankees in his first start coming back into the rotation but he has shut down Houston and Boston in his last two starts, allowing just one run over 12.1 innings. 10* (970) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-12-17 | Giants +120 v. Nationals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is the makeup game from last night. Washington took three of four against Miami to open its nine-game homestand and there were some good fortunes involved as two wins came by a run while scoring just three runs in three of those games. We played against the Nationals Thursday and suffered a tough loss as they came back from a 2-0 deficit and scored the winning run in the eighth inning. The Giants are coming off a 5-3 homestand as their disappointing season winds down. They have been inconsistent on both sides of the field with an offense that has been inconsistent along with a starting rotation that has been up and down. They were able to win four of their last five games, taking two each from Arizona and Chicago so beating winning teams is a non-issue and San Francisco is catching a good number against a bad starting pitcher. Edwin Jackson has been around since 2003, pitching for 11 different teams with this being his second stint with Washington. He has not been horrible as he has made four starts, tossing two quality outings but now he is laying his biggest moneyline of the season. He has allowed six home runs in the first four games. The Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija who is taking the place of Chris Stratton. He has a 4.75 ERA in 23 starts but his WHIP of 1.18 is a better indication of how his season has gone. Additionally, his xFIP (expected run prevention independent of the performance of the defense) of 3.31 is tenth best in baseball. 10* (901) San Francisco Giants |
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08-12-17 | Red Sox +144 v. Yankees | Top | 10-5 | Win | 144 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The Yankees ended the Red Sox eight-game winning streak last night with a 5-4 come-from-behind victory as they scored eight runs in the eighth inning to take control. New York can carry that into Saturday behind their ace but it is laying a steep price against a team it trails by 3.5-game in the American League East. The Yankees are 33-20 at home so they are deserving of being favored for sure but nothing like this. The Yankees are 6-21 in their last 27 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Boston looks to regroup following that rare implosion by the bullpen and prior to its big winning streak, it avoided any significant losing streaks as it is 16-7 over its last 23 games following a loss. The Yankees hand the ball to Luis Severino who is meeting expectations after coming to the big leagues in 2015 and coming off a very poor season last year. New York has won his last six starts all of which have come relatively easy but that should not be the case tonight as Boston has been crushing right-handed pitching at a .309 clip over its last 10 games. The Red Sox counter with Drew Pomeranz who is having an excellent season as well. He is 11-4 with a 3.36 ERA and has been great in these spots as the Red Sox are 13-3 in his last 16 starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Yankees are hitting just .233 on the season against left-handed pitching including .214 over their last 10 games. 10* (915) Boston Red Sox |
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08-11-17 | Braves +130 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The Cardinals won their sixth straight game last night to pull within one game of the Cubs in the National League Central. They are coming off an impressive home-and-home four-game sweep over the Royals and they have been doing it with offense, scoring eight runs or more in five straight games and averaging 10 rpg over that stretch. Atlanta dropped the final three games of its homestand to make it a disappointing 3-5 homestand but the season has still been one that not many expected as Atlanta has held its own in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season. The Braves finished 25 games under .500 last season and will not come close to that this year and they have been the seventh most profitable team on the road. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for Atlanta and he has been a consistent pitcher all season with 13 of 21 starts being quality outings including eight of 11 starts on the road. The Braves are 6-0 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Adam Wainwright counters for the Cardinals and he has been all over the place this season. Only four of his last 10 starts have been quality outings after a great stretch in May and June where he allowed just one-run over a four-game stretch. He struggled against the Braves last season, allowing 11 runs in 11 innings over two starts. 10* (959) Atlanta Braves |
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08-10-17 | Royals +133 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
St. Louis has won the first three games of this four-game home-and-home series with Kansas City and it is now two games over .500 thanks to an overall five-game winning streak. The Cardinals trail the Cubs by just a game and a half in the National League Central so they are carrying some momentum at the right time. The offense has been killing it and many expect that to continue but this is a good contrarian spot to go against that. The Royals have lost eight of 10 games after a 10-1 run and trail the Indians by four games in the American League Central. They need to avoid the sweep here and get some of their own momentum going before six more games coming up on the road. Jason Hammel got off to a rough start to the season with a 6.18 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his first 10 starts but it has been a significant turnaround since then as he has put up a 3.74 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last 12 starts where he has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of those with 75 percent of those being quality outings. Lance Lynn has been an integral part of the Cardinals turnaround as he has tossed six straight quality starts, five of which have resulted in St. Louis victories. Overall, his numbers have been great but the Cardinals are just 21-11 in his 23 starts which is nothing over the top and going back, the Cardinals are 3-7 in his last 10 Game Four starts. 10* (921) Kansas City Royals |
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08-10-17 | Marlins +140 v. Nationals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Washington has taken two of the first three games of this series following a 10-1 win last night. The offense was on display once again after a bit of an inconsistent stretch but the real story was Gio Gonzalez getting overshadowed once again as he put up another gem, which was his 12th quality outing in his last 13 starts. The Nationals have the National League East wrapped up as they have a 14-game lead over Miami which is just 2-4 on this roadtrip as its own offense will be out to get back on track. The Marlins are still hitting .277 on the road which is second best in baseball while they also have the second most runs scored on the road in the National League. They can keep that pace up tonight against Tanner Roark who has been below average this season with a 4.82 ERA and that drops down to 5.46 in 10 road starts with Washington going just 4-6 in those games. Three of his last four games have been quality starts but those were all on the road. Dan Straily counters for Miami and he is coming off two straight solid outings after a rough start in Texas where this time of year is tough for any pitcher. Overall, it has been a very good season for Straily with a 3.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts and his records are similar to those of Roark yet the line is telling us something different as two middle of the rotation pitchers should not have a big number like this. 10* (903) Miami Marlins |
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08-09-17 | Phillies +137 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Phillies won the opener of this series last night to make it two straight victories following five straight losses to open this roadtrip and going back, they are 7-5 over their last 12 games and 11-8 over their last 19 games so they have been on a good run late in the season without much to play for. The Braves have dropped two straight games and it has been the opposite type of long-term run as they have gone 6-15 over their last 21 games yet come in tonight as a pretty hefty home chalk despite not having an edge in the starting pitching matchup which is the big dictator in where these lines are set. Something must give here with the starting pitchers if they are involved in the winning decision as Jerad Eickhoff is 0-5 on the road while Sean Newcomb is 0-5 at home. Eickhoff has put together three straight solid starts, posting a 3.18 ERA in those games and he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 19 overall starts. Philadelphia has yet to win a road start in nine tries this season but it has been close as seven of the nine road losses have come by a total of 10 runs. Facing the Braves gives him his best shot as he has a 1.98 ERA in nine career starts against Atlanta, easily his best ERA against any team where he has made at least three starts. Newcomb has been on a good short-term run as well as far as runs allowed but he has walked 22 hitters over his last five starts and that is not going to help break any losing streak. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-09-17 | Padres +134 v. Reds | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
The Padres snapped a two-game slide with a win in Game Two of the series last night to improve to 7-5 over their last 12 games. Going back further, they are 10-9 over their last 19 road games and that may not seem great but they have been underdogs in all but two of those games so the return has been very strong. Additionally, San Diego has won four of its last five games after scoring five or more runs previous game. The Reds picked up a rare win on Monday as it has been a bad run since mid-July as they are 7-18 over their last 25 games including losses in 12 of their last 16 games at home. Cincinnati has a 5.53 ERA from its starting pitchers over the last 10 games while the offense is hitting just .203 over this stretch against left-handed pitching and it faces one tonight in Travis Wood. He will be making his third start since coming to San Diego from the Royals and he will be making his first start against a team not named the Pirates. He has been decent in both games and now he faces a Reds team that he has pitched very well against in the past which gives him a solid mental edge tonight. He has posted a 2.16 ERA in his last nine starts with seven of those being quality performances. Asher Wojciechowski counters for Cincinnati and he is making just his sixth start in 2017 and only his second since rejoining the rotation. He was solid last time out but it is hard to trust a guy with a career ERA over 5.00 laying a price this high. 10* (955) San Diego Padres |
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08-08-17 | Red Sox v. Rays +189 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has picked up some steam as it has won four of six games in August and is tied for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays salvaged the series finale against the Brewers on Sunday to avoid the sweep as the pitching led the way the entire series, allowing just six runs over the three games. Tampa Bay has been a home underdog of +175 or more only once over the last three years and that happened to be this season against Chris Sale which resulted in a 4-1 Rays victory. The Red Sox completed a four-game sweep at home over the White Sox and bring in a six-game winning streak and a three-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. Boston hits the road where it has struggled, sitting two games under .500 after having lost eight of their last 11 games on the highway. Sale has been outstanding this season but is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed seven runs in five innings against the Indians. This came after three straight starts of allowing no runs and he faces a Tampa Bay that he has struggled against to his standards as he has a 3.67 ERA in seven starts since 2015. Tampa Bay sends Austin Pruitt to the hill for his third start and after a rough starting debut against the Yankees, he cooled down a red-hot Astros offense by allowing no runs on five hits in 6.1 innings. This will be his first home start in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. 10* (914) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-08-17 | Rockies +216 v. Indians | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Rockies are a live dog tonight and a big one on top of it based on the starting pitching but they have the offense and sneaky good pitching of their own to take this series opener. Colorado is two games over .500 on the road following a 4-2 homestand and it currently sits a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks for first place in the National League Wild Card standings. The Rockies have won nine of their last 12 games following a loss while going 22-8 in their last 30 games following an off day. The Indians have been very up and down after a nine-game winning streak and enter tonight on a two-game skid where the offense got handcuffed against the Yankees, scoring just two ruins total over the weekend. They are 30-26 at home which is average for the so-called dominant teams and on the season, they are just 7-8 when favored between -175 and -250 which equates to big unit losses. The Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a loss while going 1-10 in their last 11 Interleague games against teams with a winning record. Corey Kluber gets the ball for Cleveland and he has been on a big roll with quality outings in nine of his last 10 starts while striking out double-digit hitters in four straight games. Colorado will not have an easy time here but it is second in baseball with a .272 average against righties. German Marquez has been pitching well with a five-game quality start streak with the Rockies winning all those games. They are 7-1 in his last eight starts against winning teams. 10* (925) Colorado Rockies |
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08-07-17 | Tigers +152 v. Pirates | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Detroit had a four-game winning streak snapped over the weekend in Baltimore as it dropped games Saturday and Sunday as both offense and pitching were bad. The road has not been kind this season for the Tigers but they have won nine of their last 15 on the highway. Pittsburgh won Sunday to take the series against San Diego and improve to 3-3 on this current homestand and it has been a tough stretch as the Pirates are 5-9 over their last 14 games. Jordan Zimmerman is coming off his best start of the season as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Yankees and he can carry that into Pittsburgh. He has turned his season around considerably as he posted a 6.47 ERA through his first 10 starts but has put up a much better 4.38 ERA over his last 11 starts Zimmerman faces an offense that has been highly inconsistent this season as the Pirates are hitting .247 which is No. 23 in baseball while their 472 runs scored (4.3 rpg) is fifth lowest. Pittsburgh has averaged just 3.7 rpg over its last 11 games while hitting only 2.18 over that stretch. Trevor Williams counters for the Pirates and he has been solid since entering the rotation in mid-May as he has allowed three runs or less in 13 of 16 starts but only six of those 13 outings have been quality performances. That explain a lot why he has only four wins and has yet to pick up a victory at home. The Pirates are 2-7 in his last nine starts including a 1-4 record at home and he has been favored only three times with all three resulting in losses. 10* (959) Detroit Tigers |
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08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +161 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The Dodgers continue their torrid pace as they have won the first two games of this series with the Mets to make it a 4-1 roadtrip thus far. Going back, they have lost only three times since July 4th and a mediocre end to the season will likely still assure them of the best record in baseball as they are currently on pace to win 115 games. Last night was a classic example as Los Angeles was down most of the game yet scored seven runs over the final four innings to win. The Mets have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games and are pretty much down to playing spoiler while looking to avoid a sweep from the Dodgers for the first time ever. Steven Matz will be looking to get into the win column for the first time in seven starts as he has gone through an inconsistent season. In 10 starts, he has allowed four or more runs four times but his other six outings have been very solid and this includes a quality start in Los Angeles back in June. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball for the Dodgers and he is the one starters who has not been tearing it up. Los Angeles is 7-8 in his 15 starts and you cannot ignore the fact the Dodgers are 6-2 in eight home starts but just 1-6 in seven road starts where he has a 4.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The Mets fall into a great underdog situation as well as we play on home underdogs that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20) with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This situation is 55-37 (59.8 percent) since 1997 while winning 31 units. 10* (904) New York Mets |
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08-06-17 | White Sox +195 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
It was a tough loss to swallow last night with the White Sox as they outhit Boston 8-5 but lost the game 4-1 at they left 12 on base including four in scoring position with two outs. They were done in by a pair of two-run home runs in the first and second innings and wasted a quality outing from James Shields. Chicago has dropped five straight games and looks to salvage a game to avoid the four-game sweep and get the best pitching matchup of the series today. Boston has won five straight games and its lead remains one-game in the American League East over the Yankees. Chicago faces the bottom of the rotation of the Red Sox as they get a look at Doug Fister who has made five starts and is coming off his best of the season by far as he tossed 7.2 innings while allowing just two runs on five hits against the Indians in a nationally televised game. He had a 7.58 ERA in the previous four starts so the most recent can be chalked up as an anomaly as regression comes to the forefront today. The White Sox counter with Mike Pelfrey who is coming off a pair of bad outings but he had put together a decent run prior to those as he allowed three runs or less in nine of his previous 11 outings. Chicago went 5-6 and while that may seem bad, being an underdog in those games makes it profitable and he is getting a massive number today against a pitcher not deserving of laying such a line. This is a great value number for the White Sox which as still a very respectable 6-9 as road underdogs between +175 and +250. 10* (919) Chicago White Sox |
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08-05-17 | Phillies +182 v. Rockies | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Rockies were the biggest public consensus play last night and Coors Field once again showed that anything can happen there. We were on the Phillies and they carried a 3-2 lead going into the seventh inning but the bullpen allowed a run in each of the seventh and eighth inning as Colorado pulled out another close victory. It was the third win in four games on this current homestand for the Rockies with all three of those wins coming by just one run and they are again a top public consensus tonight. Colorado has excelled at home all season but the matchup tonight is not in its favor as much as this line may be telling us. The Phillies had a run of five straight wins to close out their homestand but have lost the first four games of this roadtrip to fall to a dismal 16-39 on the highway. Last night was their Major League leading 28th one-run loss. Jon Gray takes the hill for Colorado and he has been up and down in his limited action this season. He has a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in nine starts and while Colorado has gone 6-3 in those games, he has been the beneficiary of timely run support. The Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Philadelphia counters with Nick Pivetta who has a better ERA and his WHIP of 1.38 is much better. His numbers on the road are not nearly as good but that is basically because of just two blowup starts at Arizona and Milwaukee where he allowed 15 of his 33 overall runs given up on the road. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-05-17 | Padres +157 v. Pirates | Top | 5-2 | Win | 157 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Pittsburgh rallied from a 6-4 deficit in the series opener last night as it scored six runs in the bottom of the seventh to eventually pull away from San Diego. The Pirates have won two straight games and while they are still in the National League Central hunt, they are three games under .500. Even after the win last night, the Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record. San Diego has dropped two in a row after a solid 5-1 run and despite a bad 19-33 road record, the Padres have won eight of their last 14 games on the highway. Dinelson Lamet gets the ball for San Diego and while his numbers are below average, they are deceiving. He has struggled on the road as his overall numbers show but three of his six road starts were quality outings and those came against the Mets, Giants and Brewers, all of which are in the bottom half of the league in home batting average. He allowed five runs or more in his other three road outing but those came against the Rockies, Indians and Diamondbacks which possess three of the top seven home batting averages. The Pirates fall into the former group and on top of it, Pittsburgh has scored the second fewest run at home in all of baseball. The Padres have won his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Gerrit Cole is the bigger name but his ERA of 3.97 is nothing special while his overall WHIP of 1.25 is the exact same of the WHIP that Lamet has. 10* (955) San Diego Padres |
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08-05-17 | White Sox +260 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Chalk has been a bettors' paradise the last two days with 20 of 28 favorites winning in baseball which includes the Red Sox winning both of their games with closing lines of -281 and -220. Now they come in as a 3-1 favorite over Chicago despite the first two games not being out of hand as Boston won by a combined 12-7. It now has a three-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East thanks to a four-game winning streak coupled with a four-game losing streak from New York. Chicago possesses the second worst record in baseball but it has the eighth worst run differential as its games have been a lot closer than most may think. The White Sox 16 one-run losses are tied for most in the American League and while a loss is a loss, the close ones have given them chances to win and cash in with huge value. James Shields gets the ball for the White Sox and he has been either good or bad in eight starts since coming back into the rotation. He has allowed six runs four times and four runs or less four times and those have alternated. He is coming off a six-run outing so a bounce back is expected and in those four poor outings, he allowed a combined 10 home runs and the Red Sox have the fourth lowest longballs in baseball. Drew Pomeranz is favored by his biggest number of the season by far and while he is having a decent season, he is not a 3-1 starting pitcher no matter who the opposition. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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08-04-17 | Phillies +142 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The Phillies closed their homestand by winning their final five games but the start to their eight-game roadtrip has not started well as they were swept in Los Angeles in the three-game set. Philadelphia has won a league worst 16 games on the road so backing this team on the highway is a stressful endeavor but the right spots can ease that. The Rockies defeated the Mets yesterday to win their series 2-1, both wins coming in walk-off fashion, but it has been a rough few weeks in Colorado as they have gone 15-21 over their last 36 games. The Rockies are still a half-game behind Arizona for the top Wild Card spot in the National League but they 5.5-games clear of the Brewers and 8.5 games ahead of the Cardinals so things are still looking good from that regard. Colorado is the biggest public consensus on the board which is surprising based on other games available. Vince Velazquez will be making his fourth start since coming off the D.L. and it has been a good recovery. He has a 2.81 ERA in the first three games with two of those being quality outings. The lone exception was a game against his former team the Astros. Colorado turns to Kyle Freeland who has been on a great run as well but it helps when the offense has scored 10, 13 and 10 runs over his last three starts. The Phillies are 5-2 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-04-17 | Mariners v. Royals +145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The Royals snapped a three-game slide with a win in the series opener last night as they continue to crush it at home where they have won six straight games to improve to 30-23 on the season. Kansas City remains 2.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central as it has scored five or more runs in five straight home games after getting handcuffed in Baltimore where it scored a total of three runs in those three games. The Mariners fell back to .500 with the loss last night and while they are out of the race in the American League West, they are just 2.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. They have been playing better on the road but are still five games under .500 on the highway for the season. Seattle comes in as a hefty road favorite because of James Paxton being on the hill. He has been on a roll as he won all six of his July starts while posting a 1.37 ERA over those games. Only two of those wins were against winning teams however and he enters tonight with a 3.57 ERA on the road which is close to a run and a half higher than his ERA at home. The Royals go with Jason Hammel who has had an up and down season but it has been mostly the former of late. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts and he has posted a 3.68 ERA over that 11-gsame stretch. Take out that one poor start and the ERA drops to 3.14 in the other 10 games. Kansas City has won four of his last five starts pitching on four days of rest. 10* (926) Kansas City Royals |
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08-03-17 | Dodgers v. Braves +225 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The Dodgers are 20-3 over their last 23 games and all three of those losses have comes against the Braves including a 5-3 setback last night. Over this stretch, Los Angeles is 3-3 against Atlanta and 17-0 against every other team so you must give the Braves credit for slowing down the best team in baseball. The Dodgers offense has disappeared of late as they have scored three runs or less in four straight games while hitting just .230 against left-handed pitching over their last five games. The win for Atlanta last night snapped a six-game slide which included the last four defeats coming by just a single run. Sean Newcomb gets the ball for the Braves and his first season in the Majors has been a roller coaster. He opened the season with four straight quality starts before running into trouble against the Astros, Nationals and Cubs. He has recovered though as he has allowed four runs over his last two starts covering 11 innings. This includes a quality start in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. After a string of five straight quality starts where he allowed a total three runs, Alex Wood has been hit hard over his last two starts as he has allowed 11 runs in 11.2 innings. This includes giving up seven runs in 4.2 innings against the Brave in his worst start of the season. While his overall road numbers are impressive, the Dodgers are just 4-3 in his seven road starts and of course he is a massive favorite tonight with all the value falling to the home side. 10* (960) Atlanta Braves |
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08-03-17 | White Sox +230 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The Red Sox were going for the sweep over the Indians last night but the series finale got postponed due to rain. They gained a half-game on the Yankees which lost to the Tigers and the Boston lead in the American League East is now a full game over New York. It has been an average run for Boston as it has gone .500 since the start of July and despite being dominant at home all season, the Red Sox are just 10-9 over their last 19 home games and overall, they are only 26-31 on the season following a victory. Chicago took a pair of games against Cleveland and Toronto before concluding its homestand with consecutive losses to the Blue Jays. The White Sox are in rebuilding mode but finding the right situations to back these such teams is necessary and this is one of those tonight. The White Sox are a respectable 6-8 as road underdogs between +175 and +250 so they have held their own in these spots. Clearly, this matchup favors Boston as it is 16.5 games better than the White Sox but laying more than a 2-1 moneyline is reserved for the elite starters and Rick Porcello does not fit the bill this season. He was spectacular last season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 33 starts where he went 22-4 but he has struggled to find that form this year. He only has four wins and has lost 14 games and his ERA is now 5.01 in 12 starts at home where Boston has lost eight of his last 11. Miguel Gonzalez counters for Chicago and he has been pitching well with a 2.33 ERA over his last three starts. 10* (963) Chicago White Sox |
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08-02-17 | Phillies +177 v. Angels | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The Angels won this series opener last night coming off a 2-4 roadtrip and they now sit three games under .500 and four games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Los Angeles has won three straight home games going back to its most recent homestand and now the Angels are close to a 2-1 favorite for the first time since mid-May. Winning streaks have been few and far between for the Angels as they are 7-20 in their last 27 games following a victory. The Phillies had a five-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and while the road has caused problems for most of the season, they are 6-6 over their last 12 road games with four of those wins coming at +150 or higher. Jake Thompson will be making his second start of the season following a solid starting debut last week where he allowed no runs on five hits in five innings of work. He posted a 3.29 ERA in his last six starts at AAA and Thompson said his recent success came after he learned to better utilize his change-up. The whole season has been a learning one for the once top pitching prospect in the organization. JC Ramirez counters for the Angels and he is coming off a pair of quality starts against the Red Sox and Indians. It has been a very inconsistent season for Ramirez who has allowed three runs or less 12 times but has allowed four runs or more eight times. He has struggled at home with a 5.10 ERA and the Angels are 0-5 in his last five starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (927) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-02-17 | Mets +140 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 140 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Mets lost their third consecutive game last night and time is running out to remain in the playoff chase in the National League. New York had a 4-3 lead heading into the bottom of the eighth inning but gave up a run in each of the final two frames as the bullpen was unable to close the deal. The good news is that this is another night game where they are 38-36 on the season compared to going just 10-20 in daytime games with those 10 wins being the fewest in baseball. Colorado won for the third straight time at Coors Field following a disappointing 2-4 roadtrip and leapfrogged over Arizona for the top spot in the National League Wild Card standings. The Rockies have struggled in those spots however as they are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a series opening victory. They got a solid effort from Jeff Hoffman last night and are hoping for a similar outing from Tyler Chatwood but he has been having issues. We went on the DL with a calf injury following a horrible start in his last game and he has allowed four runs in three of his last four starts. He has struggled at home with a 6.14 ERA in eight starts and he leads the National League in walks with 62 despite throwing just 107.1 innings. Chris Flexen will be making his second start for the Mets after a brutal Major League debut as he allowed three runs in three innings against the Padres. The first-game jitters are now gone and we can expect a more relaxed Flexen who is one of the top pitching prospect in the organization. 10* (911) New York Mets |
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08-01-17 | Dodgers v. Braves +165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The Dodgers are finally out of Los Angeles as they concluded a 10-game homestand by winning the final eight games to increase their lead in the National League West to 14 games. Los Angeles is the best team in baseball as it is five games better than the Astros and taking nothing away from what they have accomplished, the schedule has been on its side. Since mid-June when the big streak started, only 10 of their last 35 games have been on the road and its 60 games played at home this season are the most in baseball. The Braves are back home after an 11-game roadtrip where they dropped their final five games, the last three coming by just a single run. After winning just 68 games last season, Atlanta has already won 48 games this season and is a respectable two games under .500 at home. The Braves have won 15 of their last 22 series openers and they send Lucas Sims to the hill for his Major League debut. Sims, a first-round draft choice in 2012, will take the spot in the rotation vacated when Jaime Garcia was traded to the Twins. He was successful in AAA as he pitched deeper in games than he ever has before while posting a 3.75 ERA on the season and has 132 strikeouts to just 36 walks in 115.1 innings. Kenta Maeda gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been below average on the road with a 5.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight road starts compared to a 2.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight home starts. Additionally, the Dodgers are 2-5 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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08-01-17 | Indians +146 v. Red Sox | Top | 10-12 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The Indians lost the opener of this series as they were shut down by Doug Fister and have now dropped two straight games after putting together a nine-game winning streak. Cleveland remains just two games ahead of the Royals in the American League Central as both have been on terrific runs and have separated themselves from the rest of the pack. Boston kept pace with the Yankees with the victory as it is still just a half-game out in the American League East. It was not a good July for the Red Sox as they finished with a losing record and going back, they are 0-5 in their last five games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Chris Sale has been nasty and at this point in the season, the only time he can be faded is when he is facing another elite pitcher which is the case tonight. He has not allowed a run in three straight starts and while he is 82-47 with a 2.93 ERA against teams other than the Indians but is just 5-7 with a 4.07 in 27 career appearances (16 starts) against Cleveland. Current Indians that are crushing him are Francisco Lindor is 8-for-16 (.500), Edwin Encarnacion 5-for-13 (.385), Jose Ramirez 5-for-14 (.357) and Carlos Santana 12-for-30 (.300). Carlos Carrasco has not been as dominant but he has a 3.58 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 20 starts with Cleveland winning 15 of those. He has been better on the road as he is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP away from home and the Indians are 22-5 in his last 27 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (967) Cleveland Indians |
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07-31-17 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +154 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 154 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Toronto and Chicago are both coming off walk-off victories on Sunday with the Blue Jays being much more dramatic as they overcame a six-run deficit in the ninth inning which was capped off with a grand slam to win it. They avoided the sweep against the Angels and finished their homestand 5-2 and now hit the road where they sit eight games under .500 but come in as a substantial road chalk for no apparent reason. The White Sox also won with a home run yesterday which snapped a five-game slide and the dreadful July cannot end quick enough. Still, they gained some momentum from yesterday and remaining home is substantial. Starting pitching drives baseball moneylines and Marco Estrada has no business laying this type of number. We played against him in his last start on Wednesday and while it was not a horrible start, it was below average and he was bailed out by three Toronto runs in the ninth. He has had a horrible last two months after a strong start as he has posted an 8.87 ERA over his last 10 starts with only one of those being a quality outing. The Blue Jays are 3-10 in his last 13 starts against teams with a losing record. James Shields takes the mound for Chicago and he is having a poor season but the situation and number is too good to pass up here. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of his 10 starts which is strong even though he has not gone far into most of those games. The White Sox have gone 8-9 this season as a home underdog between +125 and +175 and only two of those 17 games have been against teams with a losing record which again adds to the value tonight. 10* (916) Chicago White Sox |
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07-31-17 | Tigers +170 v. Yankees | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Yankees had their six-game winning streak snapped yesterday with a 5-3 loss against Tampa Bay and they will be very heavily bet tonight for those looking for a bounceback. They are priced that way for sure and is has been overpriced as they are laying a huge number against a top of the line starting pitcher. Even against the non-elite pitchers, the Yankees have struggled in this range as they are just 7-5 this season when favored between -175 and -225. Detroit took it to Houston over the weekend as after dropping the series opener by a run, the Tigers outscored the Astros 18-4 to take the final two games and the series. At this point, Detroit is a seller and we will possibly see Justin Verlander on the move today but that has no effect on this game and the tigers have been playing solid despite sitting far back in the playoff picture as they 9-7 over their last 16 games with all but three of those wins coming as underdogs. New York hands the ball to Luis Severino who is having a very strong season and has posted two straight starts of allowing no earned runs over 14 total innings and that makes this the time to go against that. Despite a 3.03 ERA, the Yankees are just 11-9 in his 20 starts, losing money in the process and going back, they are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer who has had a very similar season and he has thrived on the road with a 2.91 ERA in nine starts, eight of which have been quality outings. The Tigers are 14-4 in his last 18 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (907) Detroit Tigers |
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07-30-17 | Twins +138 v. A's | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the pitching changed from Sonny Gray to Jharel Cotton. The Twins lost Game Two last night after allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth on a two-run walkoff home run from Rajai Davis. Minnesota now trails the Indians by seven games in the American League Central namely because Cleveland cannot lose right now. The Twins are still very much in the Wild Card hunt though and look to get out of here with a win before an off-day tomorrow. Oakland snapped a five-game slide with the victory on Saturday and it was just the third win in their last 12 games. Despite the win last night, the Athletics are 19-39 in their last 58 home games against teams with a winning road record. Bartolo Colon makes his third start since joining the Twins and while his debut was ugly, his second start was solid and it came against the Dodgers where he allowed three runs over five innings. He now gets to face an offense that is hitting .236, ties for worst in baseball. Jharel Cotton has been on the disabled list since July 4 and has not started for Oakland since July 3, when he gave up four runs and seven hits in five innings in a 7-2 loss to the White Sox in Oakland. He had a blister which is never a good injury and he brings in a 5.17 ERA over 14 starts. He has struggled at home with a 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in seven starts with Oakland winning just two of those. 10* (977) Minnesota Twins |
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07-30-17 | Indians v. White Sox +155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 155 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
Cleveland won its ninth straight game with a 5-4 win last night and upped its lead to three games in the American League Central over the Royals which lost in Boston last night. The Indians are still just 3-5 in their last eight road games but are of course favored by a heavy amount that the public will eat up again. it has been a struggle for the White Sox which have unloaded some players and are likely still not done but in the meantime, continue to play hard. Chicago has dropped five straight games but a look at the last four starting pitchers it faced has a lot to do with that and the White Sox held their own against Corey Kluber last night. Chicago hand the ball to Carlos Rodon who started off great in his first two games since getting back into the rotation but has really struggled over his last three starts. His lone quality start came when pitching on four-days of rest and the White Sox are 16-6 in his last 22 games when pitching on four-days of rest. Josh Tomlin has had quite a turnaround as he has tossed three straight quality starts after posting a 7.94 ERA over his previous five starts. The Indians are 1-7 in his last eight starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The White Sox have given him fits this season as he has allowed 10 runs in just 4.1 innings. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox |
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07-30-17 | Rays +145 v. Yankees | Top | 5-3 | Win | 145 | 3 h 40 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has dropped the first three games of this series and looks to avoid the four-game sweep after another one-run loss yesterday to the Yankees. Five of the Rays last seven losses have come by a single run and their 16 one-run losses are tied for second most in the American League. Tampa Bay is still one-game over .500 and is just 2.5-games behind the Royals for the second Wild Card spot. Tampa Bay has won four straight Game Fours. The Yankees remain a half-game up on Boston in the American League East thanks to their sixth straight victory and they are now an American League best 31-17 at home. The offense has picked things up during the winning streak but they will face a challenge today. The Yankees are 1-5 in their last six during Game Four of a series. Tampa Bay sends Jacob Faria and he has gotten his career off to a solid start. He is 5-1 with a 2.67 ERA in nine starts, eight of which have been quality outings. His numbers are even better on the road where his ERA drops to 2.56 and Tampa Bay has gone 4-1 in his five road starts. New York counters with Jordan Montgomery who is having a solid season as well with a 3.92 ERA in 19 starts. He has not been nearly as dominant and New York is just 8-11 in those games. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 0-4 in his last four starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-29-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +167 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Milwaukee took the opener of this series last night to pull within a half-game of the Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers have been atop the division for most of the season but a red-hot run by Chicago after the All-Star Break has switched the positions of the two teams but Milwaukee can reclaim the top spot with a win tonight. Going back, the Brewers are 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Chicago is now 11-3 since the break as it is playing like the team it should have from the start. The pitching has been the biggest turnaround as the Cubs have allowed three runs or less in 12 of those 14 games while the offense remains inconsistent. Chicago is hitting just .245 which is ahead of only San Diego and tied with San Francisco in the National League. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs and after spending more than six weeks on the disabled list, he made his first start on Monday and it was not a great one as he allowed just one run but gave up eight hits over only 4.1 innings. His season was up and down prior to that as well and as a feel pitcher, it will take him time to get back. Junior Guerra counters for Milwaukee and he is coming off a poor start against the Phillies but that was on the road where he has a 6.21 ERA. That ERA drops to 4.25 at home and overall, he has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-29-17 | Rockies +129 v. Nationals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 129 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is the makeup game from the postponement on Friday. Colorado has dropped three straight games following a 6-1 run and it remains four-games ahead of the Brewers for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Rockies have been struggling on the road after a red-hot start as they have now lost seven of eight road games in July but they are still a game over .500 overall on the highway. Colorado has won eight of 12 games this season following an off day. Washington won its series with Milwaukee after a 15-2 victory Thursday as it set a team record with eight home runs. The Nationals have a 13.5-game lead in the National League East so the playoffs are assured but they are just 4.5 games better than the Rockies yet are laying a number that is secured for teams with a much wider differential. Tanner Roark gets the ball for Washington and he has been up and down all season. He is coming off a pair of gems but both of those were on the road where he has been solid but he has a 5.31 ERA in 10 games at home and Washington has dropped his last three home starts. German Marquez counters for the Rockies and he has put together a very good season with a 4.20 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He opened and closed June with bad starts but his July has been great with a 3.76 ERA in four starts and going back, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 13 starts. 10* (903) Colorado Rockies |
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07-28-17 | Indians v. White Sox +200 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The Indians have won seven straight games but have been unable to separate themselves from the Royals as Kansas City has one-upped them with eight straight wins. Cleveland swept Toronto then won a makeup game over Cincinnati before its recent sweep of the Angels and it hits the road where it has been very solid on the season but has lost five of six since the All-Star Break. Additionally, the Indians are 1-5 as road favorites of -175 or more this season. The White Sox lost three of four against the Cubs and it has certainly been a tough July. They have just one win since the All-Star Break and are 0-5 at home but the breaks have not gone their way as three of those losses were by just one run and they are tied for second in all of baseball with the fewest one-run wins with 10. Danny Salazar is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed one hit over seven innings against Toronto which was his first start since late May. That start was encouraging but he has been inconsistent especially on the road where he has a 5.74 ERA in six starts and he allowed four runs in five innings in his lone start here this season. Derek Holland has been inconsistent as well and like Salazar, he has been better at home as he has a 3.72 ERA compared to a 6.27 ERA on the highway. Holland has enjoyed success against the Indians throughout his career as in 11 starts, he is 7-1 with a 2.27 ERA with 21 walks and 52 strikeouts in 67.1 innings. 10* (976) Chicago White Sox |
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07-27-17 | Rays +103 v. Yankees | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Tampa Bay and New York start a pivotal four-game series as both teams are right in the thick of the Wild Card hunt in the American League. The Rays had lost five straight games and after getting blanked in the series opener against Baltimore, the Rays scored 10 runs in the final two games and notched a 5-1 victory Wednesday. They are two games under .500 on the road but have a significant edge in the pitching matchup here. The Yankees have won three straight games following a two-game sweep of the Reds to improve to 28-17 at home. They have a game and a half lead over Tampa Bay in the Wild Card race with Kansas City sitting in-between the two. Chris Archer gets the ball for the Rays and he has now tossed five straight quality outings heading back to the end of June. He has not been great on the road this season but he has not been bad either and he has been very successful in this matchup as Archer is 6-6 with a 2.73 ERA in 16 starts against the Yankees. New York counters with C.C. Sabathia who is having a great year following four straight below average seasons. He has fared much better on the road however as he has a 2.29 ERA in 10 road outings but that ERA balloons to 5.29 in six home starts. Since joining the Yankees in 2009, Sabathia is 9-13 with a 4.23 ERA in 32 starts against the Rays including a 4-6 record with a 4.69 ERA in 16 starts at Yankee Stadium. 10* (913) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-26-17 | Rockies +145 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
The Rockies offense has been held in check in the first two games of this series and they will be out to avoid the sweep tonight as they are catching the biggest underdog number of the series. Colorado is still a solid 27-25 away from home despite a rough stretch over the last month and it has won its last four games following consecutive losses. St. Louis has won two straight following a 1-4 stretch and is now two games under .500 for the season. The Cardinals are still in play in the National League Central only because of the mediocrity of the division this season. Going back, they are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. Carlos Martinez is a main reason for the big moneyline tonight but he has been pretty up and down of late. He has struggled over his last two home starts, allowing 10 runs in 10 innings and he catches a Colorado team hitting .329 over its last 10 games despite the two recent games. Jeff Hoffman counters for the Rockies and he is coming off a poor start against the Pirates which came at home where he has been bad this season. He has a 6.44 ERA at Coors Field compared to a 2.45 ERA in five road starts, four of which have been quality outings resulting in Colorado victories. 10* (957) Colorado Rockies |
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07-26-17 | A's +155 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Toronto has moved back to .500 at home with a pair of wins to open this series but the overall struggles continue and the trade rumors continue to fly. The offense continues to struggle as they have scored four runs or less in eight of their last nine including five straight games and they are hitting only .244 at home which is no. 26 in all of baseball. Going back, the Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Oakland is no offensive juggernaut eight but it has a very good matchup tonight that it can take advantage of. The A's are 6-6 over their last 12 road games with the last four coming with similar underdog prices. They hand the ball to Paul Blackburn who we played in his last start but fell to the Mets. It was his worst start of the season but it was not that bad as he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings which came after three quality outings in his first three Major League starts. Marco Estrada has had a horrible last two months after a strong start as he has posted a 9.52 ERA over his last nine starts with only one of those being a quality outing. He has allowed 15 runs in his last three home starts covering just 11.2 innings. The Blue Jays are 2-10 in his last 12 starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (965) Oakland A's |
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07-25-17 | Twins +163 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The Dodgers shook off a pair of losses against Atlanta last week and are back to their winning ways as they have won three straight following a come-from-behind win last night. Los Angeles scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth inning which was its 42nd home win of the season to maintain its 11.5-game lead in the National League West. They were surprisingly shut down by Bartolo Colon on Monday and while recent run has been impressive, looking back at the starters they have faced shows they have faced some weak starting pitching along the way. Minnesota is back to .500 and sits 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central but is still a solid eight games over .500 on the road. The Twins are not getting nearly the same underdog price they got last night but the pitching matchup difference is the reason. Jose Berrios is one of the top pitching prospects in the organization and while that did not show last season when he posted an 8.02 ERA in 14 starts but a lot of the struggles came early before a late season call-up. This season, he is 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and Minnesota has won 10 of his last 14 starts going back to last season. The Dodgers counter with Kenta Maeda who is having a good but not great season with a 4.23 ERA. Only three of 15 starts have been quality outings and the Twins are 21-7 in their last 28 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (929) Minnesota Twins |
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07-25-17 | Angels +152 v. Indians | Top | 7-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
After a miserable 1-5 roadtrip to open the second half of the season, Cleveland has won four straight home games following a win yesterday against Cincinnati in a makeup from a May 25 rainout. The Indians are over .500 at home for the first time since their home opener so while they do have momentum, they have been a betting nightmare at Progressive Field. The Angels went 4-4 on their most recent homestand and going back, they have won 11 of their last 20 road games which seems average but they have been significant road underdogs in all those wins and are catching a similar number tonight. Jesse Chavez gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been on a solid run despite going winless over his last four starts. He has not gotten much run support as he has received just 2.0 rpg over his last four outings and the normally reliable bullpen has allowed nine runs over those four games, matching the number of runs he has allowed over that span. Mike Clevinger has been on a solid run as well as he has tossed four straight quality games but Cleveland is just 2-2 as he too has gotten limited run support. In five home starts, he has received only 2.2 rpg with the Indians going just 1-4 in those games, dropping 5.5 units in the process. 10* (913) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-25-17 | Astros v. Phillies +151 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Astros offense took it to the Phillies last night following a lengthy rain delay to improve to 3-1 on this current roadtrip. Houston has been exceptional on the road all season so picking the spots to go against them is the key and one of those occurs tonight. The Astros scored double-digit runs and picked up at least 15 hits for the sixth time this month but this was the first time in their last nine games. Philadelphia backers were out of it early last night which has not been the case a lot this season as it has hung around a great deal of the time as 41 percent of their losses have been by one run as their 26 losses by a single run are by far the most in baseball. We get a pitching matchup tonight that is skewed toward Houston overall but there is a reason for that. Nick Pivetta takes the hill for the Phillies and while his 5.58 ERA is ugly, the damage has been done on the road. He has a 6.65 ERA in nine road starts while posting a 3.60 ERA in just four home starts, the last three of which have been quality performances. Clearly, the scheduling has played a big part in his overall number. The same is true for Charlie Morton. He has a 3.45 ERA in nine home starts while putting up a 5.40 ERA in only four road outings so his scheduling has been just the opposite of his counterpart. 10* (924) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-24-17 | Pirates v. Giants +134 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The Giants lost their weekend series against the Padres to fall to 3-4 on this current homestand and go from being favored in four straight games to being home underdogs, a situation where they took two of three games against Cleveland. San Francisco has been arguably the biggest disappointment in all of baseball but it has done well in these spots as it is showing a profit in the underdog role while dropping over 27 units when favored. The Pirates had a six-game winning snapped over the weekend with a pair of losses in Colorado and are now three games back in the National League Central. Pittsburgh is now 1-5 in its last six games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. San Francisco hands the ball to Matt Cain who is coming off a quality start against the Indians and it was the seventh time in eight starts at home that he has allowed three runs or less. He has a 3.16 ERA in nine home starts and the Giants are 4-1 in his last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole who has strung together three straight quality outing but the last two were at home where he has been better than on the road and his 4.45 ERA in 10 starts on the highway. 10* (958) San Francisco Giants |
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07-24-17 | Marlins +135 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 135 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Miami took two of three games in Cincinnati but did drop the series finale on Sunday to fall to 22-26 on the road. The Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine road games however and are priced with a lot of value tonight. Additionally, the Marlins are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Texas went 5-5 on its recent roadtrip and is coming off a sweep in Tampa Bay where it won all three games by just a single run. The Rangers head home where they are 25-20 but they have gone 0-6 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Miami goes with Adam Conley who is making just his second starts since coming back into the rotation after some time in the Minors. He went 2-3 with a 7.53 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance before being sent to New Orleans but came back with a quality outing on Tuesday against the Phillies. The Rangers are hitting just .234 against left-handed pitching which is sixth worst in baseball and the Marlins are 11-4 in Conley's last 15 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Rangers also send a lefty to the hill as Martin Perez looks to bounce back from a poor outing in Baltimore. He has been very shaky this season with a 4.63 ERA which includes a 4.79 in 11 home starts. The Rangers are 1-5 in his last six series opening starts. 10* (971) Miami Marlins |
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07-23-17 | Braves +330 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Atlanta won the first two games of this series before dropping Game Three last night as a 2-1-plus underdog and today they are even bigger underdogs based on the pitching matchup. Atlanta is 11 games behind the Nationals in the National League East but is still in the hunt in the Wild Card race as it is just two games under .500 after finishing 25 games under .500 last season. The Braves have won 10 of their last 14 games following a loss. Los Angeles is running away with the National League West as it is now on a 33-6 run to build a 10.5-game lead in the division. This matchup may not seem ideal but at this price, it is more than worth it. The Dodgers have won 14 straight Clayton Kershaw starts and while nearly everyone does not want to step into that path, we will here as the Braves have Los Angeles in a rare down slide. This is the Braves third straight games facing a lefty which is an edge and they have hot lefties hard all season as their .268 average is fourth best in the National League. Sean Newcomb got off to a great start this season with a 1.48 ERA through his first four starts, all of which were quality performances but he has labored through his last three outings. He was a First-Round pick for a reason however and expect a turnaround in the spotlight today. 10* (909) Atlanta Braves |
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07-23-17 | Astros v. Orioles +140 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 140 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
After a 3-3 homestand coming out of the break, Houston has taken the first two games of this this series and still maintains a 17-game lead in the American League West. The Astros were small favorites in both first two games in Baltimore and now they are a huge favorite and to no surprise, they are the biggest road consensus public play of the day which adds value to the home team. The Orioles were coming off a four-game sweep of the Rangers prior to this series and remain a very solid 29-212 at home. They have been a home underdog in this range only once this season and that was against Chris Sale and while Lance McCullers is having a solid season, he is no Sale. He has a 3.67 ERA on the road which is close to a full run higher than his home ERA and he has struggled of late with a 7.53 ERA over his last three starts, none of which have been quality and all resulting in Astros losses. Dylan Bundy counters for Baltimore and he really struggled in some of his starts right before the All-Star Break. The good news is that the time off may have been a benefit as he allowed just one run in six innings against the Rangers on Wednesday and he has tossed seven quality outings in 10 home starts on the season. That streak continues Sunday. 10* (920) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-22-17 | White Sox +177 v. Royals | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The White Sox lost their seventh straight games last night as they fell in extra innings to the Royals and that also happened to be their fourth one-run loss over their last five games. Clearly, Chicago is selling as they have already unloaded Jose Quintana and Todd Frazier in building for the future but we can take advantage of lines like this that are simply overpriced and loaded with value. Kansas City is now a game over .500 on the season following its third straight win but the Royals are laying wood that should be left to elite teams with dominant starting pitching and they have neither here. Jason Vargas has been up and down this season and it has been the latter of late. He allowed six runs in five innings in his final start before the All-Star Break against Seattle and then allowed six runs in 2.2 innings in his first start after the break against the Tigers. To his credit, he has been solid at home but if there is one thing that the White Sox continue to do well is hit lefties as they have a .282 average against southpaws which is the fourth best mark in all of baseball. Mike Pelfrey counters for Chicago and it can be a stressful situation when backing him but he has been far from horrible as he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 15 starts and while his big thing as that he does not go far into games, he is backed by a bullpen that is one of the better units in baseball with a 3.88 ERA, ninth lowest in the bigs. 10* (973) Chicago White Sox |
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07-22-17 | Rangers +175 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 175 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Texas won the opener of this series last night and it was a win that can propel the Rangers into getting back in the Wild Card race. They scored two runs in the ninth inning and then won in 10 innings to snap a five-game slide and remain 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The lethargic offense has come to life the last couple games but it was the pitching that came through last night by allowing three runs after giving up 12, 10 and 98 runs the previous three games. Tampa Bay possesses one of those Wild Card spots that the Rangers are chasing as a 6-1 run has been halted with a two-game losing streak. The Rays are heavy favorites tonight based on who they are starting on the hill but the differences are not as big as the line shows. Andrew Cashner gets the ball for Texas and he has put together a solid season with a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts in his first season with the Rangers. Pitching in Arlington is not easy where he has performed better than on the road but three of his bad road outings came in Houston, Cleveland and Boston, three of the top five hitting offenses in the American League. Take away another home starts against the Astros and he has allowed three runs or less in all 11 of his other starts. Chris Archer is the reason for this moneyline and while he is a big-name pitcher, his numbers are equal to Cashner. He has tossed four straight quality outings but has not been dominant as he has a 4.01 ERA in those games. 10* (967) Texas Rangers |
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07-21-17 | Padres +150 v. Giants | Top | 12-9 | Win | 150 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The Padres took the opener of this series last night as the offense has come to life by averaging 5.7 rpg over this stretch after scoring five runs or less in nine of their previous 12 games. They are now 5-2 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. The miserable season for the Giants rolls on as they have now lost nine of their last 13 games and sit five games behind San Diego yet come in as a big home favorite once again. Going back, the Giants are 9-23 in their last 32 games against teams with a losing record while going 3-13 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. Jeff Samardzija is the big reason for the large moneyline but he has done nothing to justify it as he is just 4-11 with a 4.86 ERA. He was most recently lit up for seven runs in six innings against the Padres in his first start after the break and while that was on the road, he has struggled at home. The Giants have lost 11 of his last 15 home starts dating back to last season. San Diego counters with Trevor Cahill who tossed a quality start in that matchup against Samardzija and he has a 2.81 ERA in his three starts since coming back into the rotation. The Padres have won six of his last eight starts and the Giants offense poses no threat as they have scored three runs or less in five of their last six games. 10* (913) San Diego Padres |
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07-21-17 | A's +156 v. Mets | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Oakland is coming off a solid 4-2 homestand and the pitching has led the way as it allowed just 2.5 rpg over this stretch and going back further, they have allowed more than four runs just once over their last 11 games. The road has not been great but they have won six of their last 10 away from home while going 11-4 in their last 15 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Mets salvaged a split with St. Louis but still are four games under .500 at home and have dropped 12.7 units which is the second worst home margin in the league. Yet, they are still overpriced and the public continues to go along for the ride. Steven Matz ended the first half with a rough outing and he came out of the break by putting up his worst start of the season, allowing seven runs in just one inning against the Rockies. New York is 1-6 in his last seven home starts. Oakland counters with Paul Blackburn whose Major League career has gotten off to a great start. He started this season in AAA Nashville where he went 5-6, but had a respectable 3.05 ERA in 15 games. His ethic is to work quick, keep the ball down and pitch to contact and in three games with Oakland, he has 34 ground ball outs in 19.2 innings and has posted a quality outing in all three starts. The Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (929) Oakland A's |
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07-20-17 | Yankees v. Mariners +111 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
The Mariners return home following a solid 5-1 roadtrip to open the second half and they are now just a game and half out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Seattle really stumbled at home prior to the break as it went just 2-9 over its last 11 games at Safeco but the time off and time away make that lousy record meaningless right now. Going back, the Mariners have won 10 of their last 13 series openers. The Yankees are that Wild Card team that Seattle is chasing and it has been a very rough stretch going back to mid-June as they are 10-22 over their last 32 games yet they come in as a road favorite which is an indication of linesmakers needing to adjust lines based on the public. New York is six games under .500 on the road while going 3-10 in its last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. They send Luis Severino to the hill and he is having a strong season following a disappointing 2016 campaign. He has a 3.40 ERA through 18 starts but the Yankees have not been able to take much advantage as they are just 9-9 in those games including going 4-6 in his 10 road starts. Coincidence or not, it is hard to ignore the fact that the Yankees are 1-9 in his last 10 series opening starts. Seattle counters with Felix Hernandez who is not the same dominant pitcher he used to be but he is still very dependable. He has allowed three runs or less in four of his first starts since coming off the disabled list and the Mariners are 11-3 in his last 14 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (968) Seattle Mariners |
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07-19-17 | Dodgers v. White Sox +162 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The Dodgers run has hit historic proportions as they are 30-4 over their last 34 games which is the best 34-game record since the 1977 Royals so backers have been making a mint since early June. Los Angeles is 19-0 with Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood and Brandan McCarthy on the hill with the other 11 wins sprinkled around four other pitchers. The White Sox are selling as we speak as they traded away Todd Frazier to the Yankees but that is not a huge loss as he has struggled with a .207 average. They have lost five straight games including three straight one-run losses and despite being 15 games under .500 overall, they are just -37 in run differential which is better than the Twins which are a game over .500. The Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the mound and he has been solid for the most part but he has performed a lot better at home where he has a 3.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine games compared to a 6.25 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in seven road games and the Dodgers are just 4-3 in those games so laying a big number on the road is not ideal. Carlos Rodon will be making just his fourth start of the season after spending nearly the first half on the shelf. He allowed two runs in 11.2 innings in his first two starts but struggled last time out at Coors Field which he can be forgiven for. 10* (928) Chicago White Sox |
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07-19-17 | Brewers +139 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
We lost with the Brewers last night as they allowed four runs in the sixth inning in a 4-3 loss to make it three straight losses following a pair of wins to open the second half. They have seen their lead shrink to 2.5 games over the Cubs in the National League Central so they cannot afford to lose many of these winnable games and tonight is another one of those. Pittsburgh has won three straight games to move to two games under .500 and is just five games behind Milwaukee. The pitching has led the way during a stretch where the Pirates have gone 9-2 over their last 11 games but the offense remains stagnate as they have scored four runs or less in seven of those 11 games. Zach Davies goes for Milwaukee and while he has been inconsistent throughout most of the season, he loves to pitch outside of Miller Park He is 5-0 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in nine road starts with Milwaukee winning seven of those and going back, the Brewers are 10-2 in his last 12 starts against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh hands the ball to Gerrit Cole who has not been pitching like the ace he has been tabbed. He has a 4.35 ERA overall including a 4.25 ERA at home and the Pirates are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (907) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-19-17 | Indians v. Giants +190 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 190 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The Giants pulled out a 2-1 win last night over the Indians in 10 innings and they go for the series win this afternoon which would be their first this month. It has obviously been a very tough season for San Francisco and it has been a struggle both on the road and at home. The Giants are catching a great price today though and they are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Cleveland is just 1-4 since the All-Star Break and after an 8-1 run in late June, it has gone 9-12 over its last 21 games and has been fortunate to maintain a 1.5-game lead in the American League Central. Carlos Carrasco is having a solid season but he has been inconsistent after a great start. He had a 1.86 ERA through his first seven starts but he has put up a 5.03 ERA over his last 11 starts with only five of those games being quality outings. Matt Cain counters for the Giants and he struggled in his last start prior to the break but that was on the road where he is 0-6 with an 8.14 ERA but he is 3-2 with a 2.98 ERA at home in eight starts. The Indians are 1-10 in their last 11 Interleague games against right-handed starters. 10* (926) San Francisco Giants |
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07-19-17 | Cubs v. Braves +138 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
The Cubs and Braves start the early slate on Wednesday as Chicago looks for the sweep which would be its second since opening the second half. The Cubs are playing like many expected following their World Series win last season after a slow start this year and they now trail the Brewers by just 2.5 games in the National League Central. Atlanta has dropped two straight games following a sweep of Arizona as it has caught some hot pitching from Chicago but the Braves get a break today. Mike Montgomery gets the ball today for the Cubs and he has been in a bit of a rough stretch, posting a 10.12 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over his last three starts. He has struggled on the road and Chicago is just 1-3 in his four road starts and going back, the Cubs are 0-6 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. R.A. Dickey has been on a role as he has tossed five straight quality starts and this is huge for a knuckleballer to get into a groove. He has a 1.09 ERA over this stretch with Atlanta losing just once at Washington because of the bullpen and the Braves have won his last six home starts. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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07-18-17 | Padres +136 v. Rockies | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Colorado won the opener of this series last night and has won consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month, going 1-6 in its last seven games following a victory. The Rockies are once again a huge public consensus tonight but anything can happen at Coors Field especially when there is no distinctive advantage with the starting pitching. San Diego had a two-game winning streak snapped with the loss and it has been on a pretty solid run, going 12-8 over its last 20 games. The offense has picked it up lately as the Padres are hitting .307 over their last five games against right-handed pitching. Antonio Senzatela has been recalled from AAA Albuquerque to rejoin the Colorado rotation after being demoted prior to the All-Star Break. Senzatela went 7-1 with a 3.19 ERA in his first 10 career starts through May 26. However, in his next five starts through June 22 before his move to the bullpen, he went 2-2 with an 8.54 ERA. He made three relief appearances before his demotion and he did struggle with his command in his lone start in the Minors. San Diego turns to Dinelson Lamet who is coming off a poor outing in his last start before the break but did toss three consecutive quality outings prior to that. He has a solid 55:15 K:BB ratio and the Rockies are just 3-11 in their last 14 games against right-handed starters. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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07-18-17 | Brewers +147 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Milwaukee dropped its second consecutive game last night in Pittsburgh as its potent offense has been held in check over this stretch. The Brewers have seen their lead shrink to 3.5 games over the Cubs which have won four straight games coming out of the All-Star Break. Milwaukee is still a very solid 24-19 on the road and has won four of its last five on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Pirates are just six games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central following their second straight win. The pitching has been the story as they have allowed more than three runs only twice in their last 10 games and they are priced to keep that going tonight but are overpriced in this spot. Junior Guerra gets the ball for Milwaukee and a promising start to the season has taken a turn. He posted a 3.11 ERA through his first seven starts but struggled with his last three prior to the break so the time off is a good thing. He posted a 2.81 ERA through 20 starts last season so he is much better than what he has done over his last three games and in four career starts against Pittsburgh, he has a 2.16 ERA. Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova who is having a very good season but has been up and down of late and is laying his second biggest price of the season and this one against a quality team. 10* (951) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-17-17 | Cubs v. Braves +145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Cubs have gotten back to their winning ways as they are now a game over .500 following a weekend sweep in Baltimore. The offense exploded for an average of 9.0 rpg over the three-game series but they are still three games under .500 on the road and are again overpriced based on history and situation. The Cubs are 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Braves are also off a sweep as they took three games from Arizona to move back to .500 on the season and remain in the Wild Card hunt. The Braves are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. Julio Teheran gets the ball for Atlanta and he has been the subject of a trade deadline prospect for a few teams so pitching well is his best interest now. He closed the first half very solid by tossing five quality outings over his last six starts including his last two. His numbers at home have been poor but they have improved after a bad start and the Cubs are 7-15 in their last 22 road games against right-handed starters. Chicago turns to Jon Lester who ended the first half on a horrible run as he allowed 16 runs, nine earned, in just 5.2 innings over two starts. While those were at home, he has not been very good on the road this season with a 4.96 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in eight starts. The Braves have been crushing left-handed pitching and have won eight of their last 121 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (910) Atlanta Braves |
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07-17-17 | Phillies +139 v. Marlins | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
The Phillies came through for us yesterday and we will back them again tonight in what is essentially a toss-up game but one that is not priced that way. Philadelphia avoided the sweep yesterday with the 5-2 victory and look to keep the momentum going. The pitching has been solid since the start of the month as the Phillies have allowed three runs or less in seven of their last 11 games and can keep that going tonight. The Marlins have stumbled out of the break as they were swept at home against the Dodgers and they have now lost five straight games at Marlins Park. The offense was held to just seven runs in the three-game series and while the opposing pitching will not be as strong here, the potential is there. Jerad Eickhoff has had an up and down season but it has been mostly positive as he has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 15 starts but he has not produced many wins because of a lack of run support. This is especially the case on the road where he is 0-5 and the Phillies are 0-7 in his seven road starts so this is where the contrarian value comes into play. Tom Koehler counters for Miami and he has been even worse this season with an 8.00 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 10 starts. In two starts since coming back into the rotation, he has 10 runs in 6.2 innings and going back, the Marlins are 3-15 in his last 18 starts including going 1-7 in his last eight home starts. 10* (907) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-16-17 | Phillies +156 v. Brewers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 156 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
The Phillies have dropped the first two games of this series and will be out to avoid the sweep following another one-run loss last night. That was their league-leading 24th defeat by a single run and while we keep harping on it, it is a thing that needs to be taken into consideration as this is a team that does not get blown out the majority of the time. The Phillies have dropped seven of eight overall with the offense scoring three runs or less six times but that changes today. Milwaukee has maintained its 5.5-game lead in the National League Central as the Cubs are back to .500 as both have come out of the break undefeated. The Brewers are the story though as they have won five straight games at home going back before the All-Star Break but now they come into today favored by the most they have been in this series and not for a good reason. Matt Garza has been surprisingly good this season and he is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed no runs in 6.1 innings against Baltimore. Still, after a 2.53 ERA after his first five starts, he has a 5.06 ERA over his last eight starts. Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson who is on the trading block and looks to continue to pitch well. He has an average 4.49 ERA but his 1.24 WHIP is exceptional and despite the Phillies dropping his last six starts, four of those have been quality performances. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-16-17 | Cubs v. Orioles +137 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
The Orioles have fallen into last place in the American League East after dropping the first two games of this series but today they are getting the biggest underdog price going up against a newly acquired pitcher. Baltimore is still seven games over .500 at home and is in the rare spot of being a home underdog where it has won 41 of its last 57 Interleague home games. Chicago is back to .500 on the season as it has been a major disappointment and its -19 units of profit is the third worst in baseball. Still, the Cubs are public favorites are they are the biggest consensus road betting favorite on the slate today. The Cubs have won just once in their last nine games following a victory and are 3-12 in their last 15 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Newly acquires Jose Quintana takes the hill for Chicago and while a change in scenery could do him good, you cannot ignore that he is in the midst of his worst season in his six-year career. He posted a 4.49 ERA in 18 starts with the White Sox and his first opponent with the Cubs is a team has already beat him once here this season. Additionally, the Orioles are 10-1 in their last 11 Interleague home games against left-handed starters. Baltimore counters with Ubaldo Jimenez whose numbers are anything but good but the Orioles have won four of his five home starts and going back are 28-7 in his last 35 home outings. 10* (980) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-15-17 | Dodgers v. Marlins +161 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The Dodgers continued right where they left off before the All-Star Break as they won last night to make it seven straight victories and increased their lead to 8.5-games in the National League West. They have been mostly dominant at home where they are 28 games over .500 compared to just five games over .500 on the road yet they come in as huge road favorites based on the starting pitching. Miami had its three-game winning streak snapped last night as it tries to hang on for dear life in the National League Wild Card race. While the loss dropped the Marlins to 21-22 at home, they have won 15 of their last 22 games here and they are 14-6 in their last 20 games following a loss. Alex Wood is the reason for the massive number and he is one of only two qualified pitchers that has yet to lose a game this season, Dallas Keuchel being the other. His numbers are dominant but like the team, they are more dominant at home and you cannot ignore the fact that Los Angeles is 7-0 in his seven home starts but just 3-3 in his six road starts. Going back, the Dodgers are 4-10 in his last 14 road starts. Jose Urena has been the most profitable pitcher for the Marlins as they are 9-4 in his 13 starts and he has been improving. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts and the Marlins are 6-2 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (908) Miami Marlins |
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07-15-17 | Twins +147 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 147 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
With the loss last night, no damage was done for Minnesota which remains 2.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. The Twins have dropped three straight games going back to before the All-Star Break and the pitching will need to once again find its groove after a rough couple of weeks. The Twins are eight games under .500 at home but are nine games over .500 on the highway. Houston has been in control of the American League West all season as its lead sits at 16.5 games and the offense remains the best in baseball. During the Astros current 7-2 run, they have averaged 9.0 rpg while plating 10 runs or more five times. They put up a 10-spot last night, all in the first three innings, and the Twins should be able to keep them in check tonight behind Ervin Santana. He has been having a solid season although he did have a poor June where he posted a 6.03 ERA. His ERA in his other 12 starts is an outstanding 1.78 and he is coming off a quality outing in his last start before the break. He has been more dominant on the road than at home and the Twins are 6-2 in his eight road starts. Houston has a 3.86 ERA coming from its starters and joe Musgrove has not helped that at all. He has been their worst starter with a 6.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 14 starts with only three of those being quality outings. The Astros are 2-7 in his last nine home starts while the Twins are 20-6 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (919) Minnesota Twins |
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07-14-17 | Phillies +149 v. Brewers | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The Phillies closed the first half with a victory over San Diego which snapped a five-game losing streak, the last two being one-run losses. That was the story for the Phillies through their first 87 games as they went 11-23 in one-run games and those 23 losses are six more than any other team in all of baseball. That equates to nearly 40 percent of their losses which shows how close it has been to a much better season than the record indicates. Milwaukee has been the surprise of the National League as it went into the All-Star Break with a 5.5-game lead over St. Louis and Chicago in the National League Central. The Brewers have won six of their last seven games but any momentum has surely been lost because of the time off and they come in as overpriced favorites tonight. Zach Davies has been winning but has not been great in doing so as he is 10-4 but possesses a 4.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 18 starts. His best work has been on the road where he has a 3.62 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over nine starts but in nine starts at Miller Park, he has a 6.23 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. The Phillies counter with Nick Pivetta whose overall numbers are nearly identical as Davies and he comes into this game in much better form. Four of his last five starts have been quality outings with the only blemish taking place in Arizona which happens to a lot of pitchers there. This is his first career start against the Brewers. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-09-17 | Tigers +195 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 195 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Cleveland turned a third straight solid pitching performance into a victory and it looks to go into the break with a sweep over the Tigers. The Indians now have a two and a half game lead over Minnesota in the American League Central but are still two games under .500 at home. The Tigers have lost two straight following a 6-4 run and are now in last place in the division with the White Sox. They are in a good spot as they are 5-1 in their last six games after losing the first two games of a series. Corey Kluber has been sensational and the linesmakers certainly know it with this price. He has tossed seven straight quality outings and has allowed just two runs over his last four starts. While the value is the big reason for going against him, another factor is that Detroit has owned him as he has a 4.59 ERA in 18 career starts and this year alone he has a 10.61 ERA in two starts against the Tigers. Michael Fulmer has been pitching great as well as he has four straight quality performances and his best work is on the road where he has a 2.16 ERA in seven starts. The Tigers are 10-2 in his last 12 starts during Game Three of a series while the Indians are 3-7 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. 10* (923) Detroit Tigers |
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07-09-17 | Royals +270 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
We lost with the Royals last night but will back them again today in the series finale. This is a complete contrarian play based on who they are facing but the value is incredible with a team that has been playing very good with wins in 18 of their last 26 games. Obviously, the Dodgers are hotter as they are 25-4 over their last 29 games and send the game's best pitcher to the hill but at an astronomical price. Los Angeles is still a hefty public consensus despite being a 3-1 favorite. Clayton Kershaw has been nearly unbeatable but we almost won going against him last time out against Arizona and the Royals are a better option here based on their strengths against left-handed pitching. Kansas City is hitting .274 on the road against lefties and .296 over its last 10 games. Additionally, the Royals are 4-0 in their last four road games against left-handed starters. Kansas City counters with Danny Duffy who pitched a solid outing in his first start since coming back from the disabled list. He had a run of four straight quality performances before the last start that put him on the shelf and going back the Royals are 9-3 in his last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (929) Kansas City Royals |
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07-08-17 | Royals +171 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The Dodgers continue to be the hottest team in baseball as they are 24-4 over their last 28 games including wins in four straight games to open this homestand. They have won five straight games at home going back further and they are priced as a team that is playing this good so there is plenty of value on the other side with a team that is also playing very well. While the numbers for the Royals do not match Los Angeles, they have been on a roll as the loss last night snapped a four-game winning streak and they are 18-7 over their last 25 games. Kansas City has won six of its last seven games after a loss and gives the ball to Ian Kennedy to continue that run. He has been pitching well following a poor stretch of outings as he has posted a 2.22 ERA over his last four starts and going back, Kansas City has won his last five road starts where he has pitched his best all season. The Dodgers counter with Brandon McCarthy who is coming off a poor start last time out but he has been solid most of the season. Of course, he is paying for it here and we can take advantage of a big underdog number as the Royals know this is a big one with Kershaw on deck tomorrow. 10* (977) Kansas City Royals |
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07-08-17 | Braves +193 v. Nationals | Top | 13-0 | Win | 193 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Washington has won four of its last five games and while it remains one of the best teams in baseball on paper, the Nationals are just 14-15 over their last 29 games including a 9-9 record at home while going 6-8 in its last 14 home games against teams with a losing record. The Braves are hanging tough as they are just three games under .500 overall and are just a game under .500 on the road. Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. Julio Teheran gets the ball for Atlanta and we won with him in his last start which was the sixth straight road win for Atlanta when he takes the hill. His overall numbers are not good but the issues have been at home as he is 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA in nine starts but on the road, he is 5-0 with a 2.88 ERA in eight outings. Stephen Strasburg is having a great season but he has been up and down over the last month with a 4.60 ERA over his last five starts. He has also been inconsistent against Atlanta as he has a 5.60 ERA in his last five starts against the Braves. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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07-07-17 | Brewers +182 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 182 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The Brewers are playing some great baseball right now as they have won seven of their last eight games to create a 4.5-game lead in the National League Central over the Cubs following their 11-2 victory yesterday in a makeup game. They have the sixth best road record in all of baseball at 21-17 and are catching a number today that is completely overinflated. The Yankees meanwhile have been in a bit of a slump, losing 16 of their last 22 games and remain three games back of the Red Sox in the American League East. They have not won a series since sweeping Baltimore back in early June and have the task of facing another hot team this weekend. Junior Guerra gets the ball for Milwaukee and he is coming off a pair of bad outings but can turn it around here. Prior to those games, he had posted a 3.11 ERA through his first seven starts while not allowing more than three runs in any of those games. Going back, the Brewers are 10-4 in his last 14 road starts while the Yankees are 4-13 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. New York counters with Jordan Montgomery who has been pretty solid with a 3.62 ERA in 15 starts but the Yankees are just 7-8 in those games and he is overpriced in this spot. Milwaukee has been crushing left-handed pitching of late and the offense that has averaged 6.8 rpg over the last eight games can keep it going here. 10* (925) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-06-17 | Diamondbacks +142 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Dodgers have increased their lead in the National League West to 4.5 games over Arizona thanks to a pair of one-run wins to open this series. They got another great performance from Alex Wood who improved to 10-0 on the season but the pitching matchup tonight is not as much in their favor as it has been the first two games. The Diamondbacks are still 7-3 in their last 10 road games and this is a big game to avoid the sweep before hosting the Reds over the weekend. Going back, the Diamondbacks are 8-0 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Dodgers give the ball to Rich Hill who is the third straight left-handed pitcher being thrown at Arizona and that is an edge for the Diamondbacks. Hill is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed no runs on four hits over seven innings but that was against the Padres on the road and he has had his struggles at home where he has a 4.03 ERA in six starts and the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five home starts against teams with a winning record. Robbie Ray counters for Arizona and while he has been up and down over his last few outings, his work on the road has been outstanding. Ray has a 1.32 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven road starts with Arizona going 6-1 in those games. 10* (959) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-06-17 | Red Sox v. Rays +154 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 154 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Boston had a six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday against the Rangers as the offense managed only two runs after scoring an average of 8.8 rpg during the streak. The Red Sox remain on the road where they are now two games over .500 and possess a four-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. They are big favorites for obvious reasons but Tampa Bay cannot be discounted here. The Rays are coming off a 4-4 roadtrip and overall have been pretty average since mid-June but they are still only 5.5 games out of first place and have a chance to make up some ground prior to the All Star Break. Jacob Faria is the reason they cannot be counted out tonight as he has been rock solid since entering the rotation last month as in five starts, he has a 2.32 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with all five of those being quality outings. Tampa Bay is a perfect 3-0 in his three nighttime starts where he has allowed just four earned runs in 19.1 innings. Chris Sale has been outstanding in his first season in Boston and he is on a run of six straight quality outings and comes in as a big road favorite but faces a Rays offense that is hitting lefties very well of late. He has shut down Tampa Bay in two starts this season but both of those were at home and his numbers on the road are not as strong. 10* (964) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-05-17 | Angels +158 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 158 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Minnesota has opened this series with a pair of wins including a 5-4 victory yesterday which game the Twins back-to-back home wins for just the sixth time the entire season. They have won three straight at home only once and have gone 0-4 in their last four home games following consecutive home wins where they are just 18-25 on the season overall. The Angels have dropped three straight games to fall two games under .500 for the season but they are still right in the Wild Card hunt as they are just 2.5 games out of the final spot. The Angels are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss while going 20-8 in their last 28 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles sends Parker Bridwell to the hill for his fifth start of the season. He is coming off his worst start of his young career but he had three solid outings prior to that including both road starts against the Yankees and Red Sox. The Twins are 24-58 in their last 82 home games against right-handed starters. Ervin Santana was awesome to start the season, posting a 0.66 ERA through his first six starts where he allowed either just one run or no runs each time out. He has been just as good in some spots since then but he has also blown up on occasion as he has allowed five runs or more in six of his last 11 starts. 10* (917) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-05-17 | Pirates v. Phillies +145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
After the Phillies blanked Pittsburgh on Monday, the Pirates returned the favor yesterday with a 4-0 shutout. Philadelphia left 11 men on base and went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position on Tuesday, so it had its chances but failed to capitalize when needed. Neither offense has been lighting it up of late but it is the Pirates that have really struggled, averaging just 3.1 rpg over their last nine games. Phillies starting pitchers have a 3.27 ERA over their last 16 starts since June 17. Overall, they have held teams to a .237 average in those starts and part of that is due to the success of Ben Lively. His success has gone back even further as five of his six outings have been quality starts, including his most recent appearance, when he threw 6.1 innings of two-run ball in a 2-1 road loss to the New York Mets on Friday. Overall, he has a 3.72 ERA and the Pirates are hitting just .196 against righties over their last 10 games. Gerrit Cole gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has had a very inconsistent season. It has been feast or famine in his 17 starts as five times he has allowed five or more runs, and six times he has allowed one or fewer runs. He allowed seven runs against San Francisco last time out and has a 5.56 ERA over his last four road starts. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-04-17 | Diamondbacks +257 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Dodgers are heavy favorites for obvious reasons and while going against Clayton Kershaw has not paid off very much at all this season, the spot and price are too good to pass up. The Dodgers have a 2.5-game lead in the National League West and it is rare to find a team that is favored by so much despite the records being as close as they are. Arizona is the team in second place as it has been having a solid season and especially of late where it has won 18 of its last 24 games including a 7-1 record over its last eight road games. Kershaw has been having another masterful season and he has allowed no runs over his last two starts covering 13 innings. Arizona has been a team that he has not liked to face however as he has a 3.92 ERA in his last seven starts against Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 while going 5-1 in their last six games against left-handed starters. Patrick Corbin counters for Arizona and while his season has been up and down, he has been putting it together of late as he has a 2.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts. Additionally, he has a 3.63 ERA in his last three starts at Dodger Stadium and can definitely keep Arizona in this game. 10* (959) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-04-17 | Reds +143 v. Rockies | Top | 8-1 | Win | 143 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Colorado is the biggest public consensus play on the board and we will go against that in a park where anything can happen. The Rockies won the opener of this series last night to pick up a game on the Dodgers in the National League West where their deficit is now 6.5 games. Cincinnati has lost two straight after a 4-1 run but despite the uneven season, the Reds are just 8.5 games out of first place in the National League Central. The Reds are 4-1 in their last five games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The start to the season has not been a good one for Homer Bailey who has been rocked for 14 runs in just 4.2 innings of action. This may not seem like the spot to back him but he has had career success at Coors Field and the Rockies are just 1-7 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. Colorado turns to Kyle Freeland who is having a very good rookie season but has been inconsistent over the last month. Additionally, he has been getting little run support as the Rockies are averaging just 3.4 rpg in seven home starts. Cincinnati is hitting .288 in its last 10 games against lefties including .324 over the last five games. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-03-17 | Marlins +131 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Miami snapped a four-game losing streak by salvaging the series finale in Milwaukee as the offense erupted for 10 runs which was one run more than those four previous games combined. The Marlins have won five of their last six series openers. Meanwhile, St. Louis had a four-game winning streak snapped with a loss against the Nationals last night and the Cardinals are still just a game over .500 at home which does not warrant a price this high against a very comparable team. While Miami has done well in the opening of a series, the Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 series opening games. Jeff Locke gets the ball for the Marlins and it has not been a good start to his career in Miami as he is winless in six starts with the Marlins going 0-6 in those games. He has not pitched that bad however as he is a combined 1.1 innings of three of those starts being quality outings. The Cardinals have struggled all season against left-handed pitching as they are hitting .227 which is fourth lowest in baseball and this includes a .220 average at home and an even worse .194 over their last 10 games. Adam Wainwright counters for the Cardinals and he has been either really good or really bad which his 5.17 ERA indicates. His dominant days are done and he is facing a Miami offense that is fifth in baseball in hitting. 10* (905) Miami Marlins |
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07-03-17 | Mets +164 v. Nationals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Despite the loss yesterday, the Mets have been playing well with wins in seven of their last nine games leading up to this big series with Washington. The offense had put up five or more runs in six of their last seven games and they need to keep that going on Monday against one of the best in the game. Washington had lost three straight before pulling out the win last night at St. Louis and while it remains one of the best teams in baseball on paper, the Nationals are just 11-14 over their last 25 games including a 6-8 record at home while going 3-7 in its last 10 home games against teams with a losing record. Steven Matz will be making just his fifth start of the season and he has been very solid. He had surgery to remove a bone spur in his left elbow in early October and was shut down late in spring training but since his return, he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in four starts. Washington is hitting just .220 against left-handed pitching over its last 10 games. Stephen Strasburg goes for Washington and he is having a good season for sure but he has been very inconsistent and especially at home where he has a 4.41 ERA in eight starts. The Mets have won three off his last four home starts including the lone one this season at a very similar price. 10* (901) New York Mets |
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07-02-17 | Braves +151 v. A's | Top | 4-3 | Win | 151 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
The Braves are 3-2 on this current roadtrip following a pair of wins to open this series and are now 7.5-games behind Washington in the National League East. Pitching has been solid with the bullpen doing its job over the last couple weeks to win some close games. The Braves are now 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Oakland has dropped four straight games while going back further, it has lost six straight home games with the offense scoring more than four runs only once. The A's are 3-13 in their last 16 interleague games against teams with a losing record. Atlanta turns to Julio Teheran who is having a rough season with a 5.30 ERA in 16 starts. The issues have been at home however as he is 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA in nine starts but on the road, he is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA in seven outings. He goes up against an Oakland offense that is hitting just .240 which is fourth worst in baseball and they are 0-6 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. Sean Manaea gets the ball for Oakland and he has been solid with a 3.87 ERA overall but he too has struggled at home with an ERA over four. The A's are 2-6 in his last eight starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (979) Atlanta Braves |
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07-02-17 | Phillies +144 v. Mets | Top | 7-1 | Win | 144 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with the Phillies last night as they blew a three-run lead in the seventh by allowing four runs in a 7-6 loss. Philadelphia has been involved in 32 one-run games which is the most in the league and its 21 losses in those games is by far the most in baseball. Three of the five losses on this roadtrip have come by a single run. New York has won four straight games and seven of its last eight while moving to within 8.5-games of the Nationals in the National League East. The Mets continue to lay big numbers however and are overpriced again today. Rafael Montero is coming off a solid outing against San Francisco last time out and will be making another spot start today. It was a surprisingly good start as he put up a pair of duds last month and he has really struggled to fit in the Majors after putting up solid numbers down at the Minor League level. Nick Pivetta counters for the Phillies and he is coming off a bad start but that was at Arizona and that was the first time in nine starts he has allowed more than four runs. He was coming off his first two quality starts so he can regain that momentum against a Mets team hitting just .236 at home, the second lowest average in baseball. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-01-17 | Phillies +160 v. Mets | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The Mets took the opener of this series last night behind a solid outing from Jacob deGrom and they have now won six of their last seven games. They are still five games under .500 and despite the win last night, they are 2-5 in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Philadelphia had its two-game winning streak snapped but is in great position to get back into the win column with a pitching advantage at a very solid number. The Phillies hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson who got off to a great start before a rough outing against the Cubs in his sixth start. He has allowed six runs or more three times compared to allowing three runs or less in 12 of his other 13 starts so the good has outweighed the bad by a considerable amount. He has tossed two straight quality starts against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks and has shut down some major offenses this season with the Mets not fitting that category. The Phillies are 5-1 in his last six starts with five days of rest. The Mets counter with Zack Wheeler who has also done more good than bad however he is coming off a pair if duds as he allowed a total of 15 runs in just 3.2 innings over those two starts. At home, he has a 5.91 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven starts with New York winning just two of those. Going back, the Mets are 4-10 in his last 14 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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