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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-15-22 | Mariners +118 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. Seattle heads to Los Angeles on a two-game losing streak to lose its series with the Rangers and it remains in second place in the American League Wild Card standings, 2.5 games behind Toronto. They are 31-28 on the road and are up 10 units on the highway and are getting a good price based on the starting pitching matchup and not the overall records. Luis Castillo is part of that matchup and is not getting the respect after two great outings against the Yankees and overall, he has a 2.71 ERA in 16 starts including a 2.36 ERA in eight road starts. Seattle is 29-14 against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The Angels have been playing a lot better of late as they have won five of their last six games including a series win over the Twins to open this six-game homestand. Los Angeles is 26-33 at home but are down close to 18 units although a lot of that was midseason when they went through that horrible stretch. Shohei Ohtani has put together three straight solid starts after getting lit up by the Braves and his numbers are nearly identical to those of Castillo with a 2.68 ERA overall and a 2.25 ERA at home. The Angels are 4-12 against American League starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.90 or better this season. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 177-174 (50.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +79.1. 10* (925) Seattle Mariners |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +154 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. The Brewers lost their series with St. Louis and are now a game and a half behind the Cardinals in the National League Central while also sitting outside the National League Wild Card race so this is a pretty big series with the Dodgers in town. Milwaukee is 29-22 at home yet down units because of the favorite prices which is not the case here. Freddy Peralta is making his third start since coming back into the rotation after being out since May and they have gone alright as he has been limited but will progressively up his pitches and innings and has a great bullpen behind him that has a 2.02 ERA over the last seven games. Milwaukee is 52-32 in its last 84 games against teams with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. The Dodgers had their 12-game winning streak snapped on Sunday as they were shutout in Kansas city 4-0, ending a streak of scoring eight or more runs in six of their last seven games. Los Angeles is 39-19 on the road but the units are just over +6 because of the big numbers. Julio Urias has put together five straight quality starts and overall has had a great season but is overpriced on the road against a solid lineup that has hit the fourth most home runs in baseball. The Dodgers are 5-15 in their last 20 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 31-17 (64.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +227 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh had won four of six games prior to coming to Arizona but it has gone 1-5 here and in Arizona to fall to 21-40 on the road and while it is 19 games under .500, the Pirates are down just 5.1 units and overall, they are down just two units. There is value here with what looks like a huge disadvantage in the starter pitching matchup but that is not really the case. Zach Thompson got lit up at the end of July against the Phillies and Marlins, allowing seven runs in each outing but has recovered with a couple decent efforts since then. Prior to those two games, he had a 4.09 ERA in his first 15 starts, allowing two runs or less in 11 of those. The Giants have won five of their last seven games to move to one game under .500 and are now 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. It is unlikely they can reach that but will continue to plod along and come in as a massive favorite once again despite a big drop off from the first two starting pitchers in this series. Alex Wood has put up very similar numbers to Thompson as his overall ERA in fewer than a run less and has allowed five runs or more in four of his 22 starts. The Giants have lost five of his last eight outings and in 10 home starts, he has a very pedestrian 4.42 ERA. Here, we play against National League favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 hitting .250 or worse and starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 23-15 (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-14-22 | Orioles +152 v. Rays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. The red hot Orioles were cooled off by Shane McClannahan on Saturday despite getting to him for an early two runs. Baltimore is 8-3 over its last 11 games and since early July, it is 24-10 in its last 34 games to get into this position. The Orioles are just 26-33 on the road but are up 6.6 units thanks to lines like the one today. Jordan Lyles had a rough June and since then, he has a 3.27 ERA since then in eight starts and that includes one blow up here in Tampa Bay so he has been really good over the last month and a half. He lost his first two starts against the Rays this season but bounced back two weeks ago with a solid effort, allowing no runs on three hits in 5.2 innings. Tampa Bay leapfrogged the Orioles once again as it is a half-game up for the final Wild Card spot in the American League despite playing pretty poorly for a while now. The Rays are just 8-12 since the All Star break after going in on a 6-1 run so the time off killed some of that momentum. Tampa Bay is 34-22 at home but up just 3.8 units. Drew Rasmussen has been solid all season with a 2.96 ERA in 19 starts including a 2.01 ERA in eight home starts. He was pulled after just three innings in his last start against the Tigers a week ago for no apparent reason as he did not allow a hit so there could be some cause for concern. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. This situation is 35-10 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (967) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-12-22 | Twins v. Angels +119 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Minnesota stays on the west coast riding a three-game losing streak and the Twins are now two games behind the Indians in the American League Central after being in first place for the majority of the season. Minnesota is 26-28 on the road and while hitting the ball well, they have struggled against lefties, hitting just .238 while averaging just 4.2 rpg. Tyler Mahle will be making his second start since coming over from Cincinnati and his first one was not great as he allowed four runs on five hits including three home runs against the Blue Jays over six innings and while the matchup is better, it is not ideal being his first on the road. The Angels are riding a three-game winning streak following a sweep at Oakland and while home has not been great this season, that is being taken into account in this number. They are down a ton of units at home but that was early in the season when their lines were inflated. Patrick Sandoval gets the ball for the Angels and while Shohei Ohtani gets all the press, Sandoval has had a great season. He has a 3.22 ERA over 18 starts which includes a 2.98 ERA in nine home starts. He has allowed five runs three times in his last 13 starts but those were against the Braves, Astros and Blue Jays and he has allowed two runs or less in the 10 other outings. Here we play against teams batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, after two straight games where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs. This situation is 69-30 (69.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-12-22 | Tigers +200 v. White Sox | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. We played against Chicago on Thursday and will go against the White Sox again as this team is showing no consistency. . The White Sox are back to .500 and sit three and a half games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and is four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are 18-16 over their last 34 games and while a return home would be good for most, Chicago is 25-29 at home and down 15.4 units and are laying another big number. Michael Kopech has good numbers overall but he is just 1-4 at home in 10 starts with Chicago going 3-7 in those games. Detroit is coming off a loss against Cleveland on Thursday as it was swept by Guardians in the three-game set and admittedly it has been a rough stretch but this is a great price in a great situation as the public is all over the White Sox based on the pitching matchup which is not as good as it seems. We are taking a shot with Daniel Norris who did not get out of the second inning against the Dodgers in his last start but will be facing a totally different lineup that has struggled to score runs of late, scoring three runs or less in seven of their last eight games. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 176-168 (51.2 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +83.8. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers |
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08-11-22 | Pirates +163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh had won four of six games prior to coming to Arizona but dropped the first two games of this series on Monday and Tuesday to fall to 20-37 on the road and while it is 17 games under .500, the Pirates are down just 3.4 units and overall, they are down less than a unit. There is value here with what looks like a huge disadvantage in the starter pitching matchup but that is not really the case. J.T. Brubaker has been pretty stead this season as in 21 starts, he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of those while allowing five runs or more only twice. He has not gone deep many times but is backed up by a Pirates bullpen that is pitching better with a 3.48 ERA over their last seven games. He has received awful run support, hence his 2-10 record. Arizona has won five of its last seven games but the tough season continues as it is nine games under .500 and likely guaranteed another losing season. The Diamondbacks have been better at home where they are 31-28 but this is a big number to lay despite the solid season from Merrill Kelly. He has a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 starts where Arizona is a dead even 11-11 and his home numbers are basically the same yet the Diamondbacks are just 4-8 in his 12 outings at home. He has allowed two runs or less in seven straight starts but Arizona has not taken advantage, going just 4-3 with the last defeat coming against Colorado as a -180 favorite. Arizona is 24-72 against the money line in its last 96 games against a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. Here, we play against National League home teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against an starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 35-22 (61.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-11-22 | White Sox v. Royals +160 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 160 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
his is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox are two games over .500 and sit a game and a half behind Minnesota and Cleveland in the American League Central and is two games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are 18-14 over their last 32 games which includes a 9-7 record on the road where they actually have been solid overall this season but are again priced up here yet for the obvious reason but it has taken a tumble. This is contrarian as it can get as we are going against Dylan Cease who is the hottest pitching in baseball over the last two-plus months as he has a 0.59 ERA over his last 13 starts with Chicago going 11-2 in those games including 6-0 on the road so we know who the public is on here but the number has come down as we are seeing a reverse line move which is rare in baseball. Kansas City has won six of its last 10 games and is hanging around despite giving away two of its top hitters at the trade deadline and come into the game six games under .500 at home. The Royals are catching a good number here because of the opposing starting pitcher but not taken into consideration as much is their own starter. Zack Greinke certainly is not the pitcher he once used to be but he has had a good season with the exception of a few bad starts on the road. At home, he has a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine starts with the Royals going 6-3 in those games and in those nine games, he has allowed two runs or less eight times and he is not facing a potent offense that has struggled to score of late. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with an OBP of .320 or less and starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.35. this situation is 40-18 (69 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Kansas City Royals |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox +130 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Atlanta lost four of five games against the Mets over the weekend which pretty much knocked it out of the National League East race as it is now seven games out. The Braves still hold down the top Wild Card spot in the National League and they remain on the road where they are 27-24 but down close to three units. The offense has struggled on the highway overall and the bullpen has been which has been solid has posted a 5.40 ERA. Kyle Wright is coming off a poor outing against the Mets which snapped a streak of seven straight Braves wins in his starts and faced a potent offense once again. Boston has fallen five games out of the final Wild Spot in the American League after a 3-4 roadtrip and it is now under .500 at home after a great run in June as it has not recovered from that 28-run outburst by Toronto. The Red Sox said they were selling at the trade deadline but shifted gears and made a few moves to make one more run with a schedule loaded with divisional games over the final two months. Nick Pivetta had a horrible July but rebounded with a decent effort against the Royals last time out and has been really good at home with a 1.25 ERA in five home starts before July. Here, we play against National League teams with an OBP .310 or less and with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start going up against an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.30 and 1.35. this situation is 44-18 (71 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Boston Red Sox |
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08-10-22 | Marlins +120 v. Phillies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Philadelphia has been on a roll with six straight wins and has won 11 of its last 12 games to move into the No. 2 spot in the National League Wild Card, three games behind Atlanta. The Phillies are 31-25 at home but are still down units despite being six games over .500 and while not a huge favorite here, they are in a bad spot to be laying any number. Noah Syndergaard made his first start with the Phillies last week and while he came in on a solid run prior to the trade, he allowed four runs in five innings while allowing 11 hits against the Nationals. Miami has lost eight of its last 10 games and is officially out of the Wild Card picture after making a run prior to this skid. The Marlins are 26-32 on the road but down just 2.6 units and over a quarter of those wins have come from the starter on Wednesday. Sandy Alcantara is coming off his second shutout of the season and continues to solidify being the favorite for the National League Cy Young. That shook off a poor outing against the Mets, his second one against New York where he allowed four runs and he is ready to continue his roll. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters. Here, we play on National League teams with a an OBP of .310 or less and with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. this situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Miami Marlins |
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08-09-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies +167 | Top | 5-16 | Win | 167 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Fresh off a sweep over the Yankees, the Cardinals have now won seven straight games and they have moved into first place in the National League Central, two games clear of the Brewers. The last six wins came at home where St. Louis is 35-20, the third best home record in the National League but it is just 25-28 on the road and this is a place where even the best teams can have bad things happen. Miles Mikolas is coming off a quality outing at home against the Cubs but has a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts and in six career appearances, four starts, against the Rockies, he has a 5.92 ERA including an 8.44 ERA in three games at Coors Field. The Rockies are back home for a much needed change of scenery. Colorado has gone 5-13 since the All-Star break and lost six of eight on its most recent road trip against San Diego and Arizona. They dropped to 18-36 on the road, which is the second worst road record in baseball, a half-game better than Detroit, but they are 30-27 at home while showing +7.7 units of profit. Ryan Feltner will be making another spot start in place of Chad Kuhl and he has been up and down. His last four starts have been on the road and his one home start not against the Braves resulted in seven innings where he allowed just one run on one hit, a home run, against Miami. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 30-14 (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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08-09-22 | Guardians v. Tigers +171 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took a pair of games against Houston over the weekend to force a series split of the Astros and the Guardians now trail Minnesota by just one game in the American League Central. They hit the road where they are 27-30, compared to 29-22 at home, and they are big favorites based on the starting pitching matchup which by name looks to be in their favor but not so much when looking deeper. Shane Bieber is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Rays and Diamondbacks to drop his ERA to 3.47 on the season but he has struggled on the road of late. Over his last three outings on the highway, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP covering 18.2 innings. Detroit lost three of four against Tampa Bay and has lost seven of its last nine games overall but have still been very competitive at home. The Tigers are 18-37 on the highway, which is the worst road record in baseball, but are 25-30 at home which is nothing special but have taken down some big underdog numbers of late, including a +225 win over Shane McClanahan, and have a chance for another one here. Tyler Alexander opened the season in the Tigers starting rotation but that lasted only four starts where he posted an 8.76 ERA and was send to the minors. He was recalled in mid-June and was solid out of the bullpen and has made two starts of late, allowing just four runs total. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 82-34 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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08-08-22 | Nationals +166 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our National League Game of the Year. We are going contrarian here with the Nationals as the Cubs have no business laying this number at home. Chicago was looking for the sweep on Sunday against Miami but was shutout 3-0 as it managed only two hits and has now lost six of its last eight games following a 7-1 run, following a nine-game losing streak, following a 6-2, well it goes on just showing the streakiness that has been going on. The Cubs have scored four runs or fewer in 13 straight games, averaging 2.5 rpg over this stretch which makes this a safe bet against the Nationals starter. The Cubs have been favored by -150 or more only six times all season, going 3-3 in those games. Keegan Thompson is coming off a bad start against the Cardinals and he has been all over the place after a great start. Washington got throttled on Sunday 13-1 against the Phillies for its fifth straight loss and while it lost a lot on offense at the trade deadline, the pitching has been lit up and with Anibal Sanchez on the hill, the Nationals are another public go against team. They have allowed an average of 9.0 rpg during the losing skid and that along with the starting pitcher, the number is big but inflated. Sanchez has made three starts since coming back to the bigs but the two bad ones came against the Cardinals and Mets, two of the best hitting teams in baseball while the Cubs are not near that. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 55-36 (60.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (953) Washington Nationals |
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08-07-22 | Pirates +155 v. Orioles | Top | 8-1 | Win | 155 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh was coming off an impressive home sweep over the Brewers as it won the three-game set by profiting 6.65 units but it has given some back after losing the first two games of this series against the Orioles. The Pirates have had their road struggles as they are 19-35 and despite being 16 games under .500, they are only -3.2 units in profit and these are the late season situations we take advantage of which is taking a typical public fade that is getting a ton of return value as the numbers are based on records and not the actual inside material. Bryse Wilson gets the ball for Pittsburgh and this is another example of looking too much at the top end of numbers which shows a 7.31 ERA but that was after early struggles and has posted a 3.62 ERA over his last five starts since the start of April. Baltimore has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as they have won five straight games and 21 of their last 28 games to get right into the Wild Card race where they are now a game out of the final spot. The turnaround has been pretty incredible and the 56 wins this season have already surpassed their win totals in each of the previous four full seasons where the previous high was 54 wins in 2019. Spenser Watkins has been on a solid roll as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts but the interesting part is that in those eight games, he has been favored once and that was close to an even number at -105 and now he comes in as high as a -175, and this is the first time he has been a true favorite in 24 career starts. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 29-20 (59.2 percent) over the last five seasons while netting +21.7 units of profit. 10* (925) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-07-22 | Astros v. Guardians +131 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 131 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. We won with the Guardians Saturday and we are backing them again as the lines again are not reflecting the back end rotation of Houston. The Astros had taken the first two games of this series behind two of their top starting pitchers and had won three straight overall prior to the 4-1 loss on Saturday. Houston is 12 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by just a half-game for the top spot in the American League. They are 36-22 on the road and are up just 6 units because of the inflated lines and we have another one here with a mid-range starter. Christian Javier has been solid with a 3.69 ERA this season but is overpriced on the road where his ERA is 4.72 over seven starts. Cleveland snapped a two-game slide with the win yesterday, it has now won seven of its last 12 games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are two games behind the Twins and they are also two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland is 28-22 at home and up 5.5 units so there is definitely value in this number once again prior to them hitting the road for six games against the Tigers and Blue Jays. Triston McKenzie had two bad starts in late June against the Twins but has a 3.31 ERA in 19 starts overall including a 2.04 ERA in his last six outings. This includes a 1.71 ERA in three home starts where his home ERA is nearly identical as his overall ERA at 3.32. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 169-164 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +76.4. 10* (914) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-06-22 | Astros v. Guardians +142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 142 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. The Astros have taken the first two games of this series behind two of their top starting pitchers. Houston is 12.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by just a half-game for the top spot in the American League. They are 36-21 and are up just 7.5 units because of the inflated lines and we have another one here with a mid-range starter. Luis Garcia has put together a solid season with a 3.82 ERA overall but has shown some signs of wearing down as he has a 4.50 ERA over his last five outings. His numbers on the road have been better but Houston has not capitalized too often as it is 5-4 in his nine road starts as it has given him only 3.2 rpg of support and we see that continuing here. Prior to this series, Cleveland defeated Arizona 7-4 on Wednesday afternoon and after Friday, it has won six of its last 11 games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are two games behind the Twins and they are also two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland is 27-22 at home and up 4.2 units so there is definitely value in this number. Cal Quantrill gets the ball for the Guardians and he has had a very similar season to that of Garcia as he has a 4.08 ERA overall but has been much better at home. He has a 3.44 ERA in 11 home starts and he has gone 5-0 while Cleveland is 8-3 in those games and comes in as a home underdog for just the third time this season and the biggest one of all. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 166-161 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +75.7. 10* (968) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-06-22 | Rays v. Tigers +234 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 234 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay has taken the first two games of this series following a 5-3 win last night and it has won three straight games while sitting two games behind Toronto for the top Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays are now 24-28 on the road and are down 8.8 units of profit and the offense continues to struggle to score as they have the fourth fewest runs in the American League on the highway. We have played against Shane McClanahan in his last two starts against the Orioles and Guardians and won both and will go against him again because of the number and the matchup. He had been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he allowed two runs or less in 14 straight starts but Cleveland lit him up for five runs last time out Tampa Bay has not given him much support as it has averaged 3.5 rpg in his last eight starts. Detroit has lost three straight and six of seven with four of those losses coming on the road and have fared better at home where the Tigers are 24-29 but down just over one unit in profits. They too have struggled with the offense but have been better at home as they are averaging 5.0 rpg over their last 13 home games. Garrett Hill counters for the Tigers and this will be his sixth start of the season since getting called up. He has not fared well on the road but has a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two home starts. Hill is a top prospect in the Tigers organization and was not rushed along and dominated in four Minor League seasons with a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, bringing great command with his four-pitch repertoire. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 166-161 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +75.7. 10* (970) Detroit Tigers |
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08-05-22 | Nationals +176 v. Phillies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. Washington caught a bit of a bad break last night as it tried to rally from a 5-1 deficit, eventually pulling to within 5-4 before the game was called after 4.5 innings for a Phillies win. The Nationals fell to 19-31 on the road but are down less than one unit of profit as the moneylines continue to be on their side, especially tonight. Washington has 11 hits in the five innings as it continues to hit well on the road and it now has a .257 average away from home which is the fifth highest in baseball. Josiah Gray is coming off a pair of below average outings since the break and he is back on the road where he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine road starts. The Nationals are 6-1 against the money line in his last seven starts as a road underdog of +150 or more. The Phillies are now tied with St. Louis and/or Milwaukee, which are knotted in the National League Central, for the final Wild Card spot but they have not been great at home. They are two games over .500 here and while Noah Syndergaard deserved a 2-1 favorite price last night, Kyle Gibson does not. Since the end of June, he has a 6.00 ERA over six starts and he has had no real advantage at home where he has a 4.50 ERA in 11 outings. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest and with a bullpen that has thrown three innings or less over last two games. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) Washington Nationals |
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08-04-22 | Cubs +139 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS (GAME 2) as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. This is Game Two of the double-header between the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs came into Wednesday on three-game losing streak and the rainout might have been a needed break after two straight shutouts. They are 21-29 on the highway and have shown a very small net loss and it shows how the underdog prices have impacted the money. The Cubs have still won seven of their last 11 games and two of the losses against the Giants could have gone either way. Marcus Stroman has gotten on a roll since coming off the IL in July, posting a 0.89 ERA in four starts over 20.1 innings against the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Giants. He just looks right which is what the Cubs were hoping for all season but an injury and COVID set him back and failed to get any consistency. St. Louis has been stuck in a rut since mid-June as it has gone 18-21 over its last 39 games and it has been unable to make a move on the Brewers in the National League Central, remaining three games out. The Cardinals are 30-20 at home and as is the case with the Cubs record and units being skewed, the same is the case with the Cardinals who are up just over four units because of inflated numbers. Jose Quintana will be making his first start with St. Louis since coming over from Pittsburgh and he has had a solid season although he had a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at PNC Park and a 5.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP everywhere else. Here, we play on National League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Chicago Cubs |
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08-04-22 | Astros v. Guardians +173 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Astros snapped a two-game losing streak with a 6-1 win over Boston on Wednesday which concluded a 4-3 homestand. Houston is 11 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by two games for the top spot in the American League. They hit the road where they are 34-21 and are up just 5.5 units because of the inflated lines and we have one here with Justin Verlander on the hill and stepping in front of the ace of the staff can be dangerous but this is a good spot to do so against a Cleveland lineup hitting its stride of late. Cleveland defeated Arizona 7-4 on Wednesday afternoon and has won six of its last nine games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are a game behind the Twins and they are also a game out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland remains home where it is 27-20 and up 6.2 units so there is definitely value in this number. The Guardians have averaged 5.1 rpg over this nine-game stretch. Zach Plesac is coming off a rough outing against Tampa Bay but that was on the road where he has a 5.31 ERA in 11 starts but he has a 3.02 ERA in eight home starts and faces a Houston offense that is hitting just .234 on the road. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 163-158 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +74.3. 10* (966) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-03-22 | Brewers v. Pirates +204 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 204 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Milwaukee leads the National League Central by two games over the Cardinals and looked more like sellers than buyers at the trade deadline. The Brewers have been on a solid 7-2 run but this price is absurd as it is more like Corbin Burnes is pitching (-290 Tuesday), not Freddy Peralta. He is making his first start since May 22 after hitting the 60-day IL with a teres major muscle strain and he comes in over a -200 favorite on the road. He will no doubt be limited in his pitch count and the Brewers bullpen will be on display for a while which is not ideal here as they no longer have the services of Josh Hader who was traded to the Padres and while he was not having the best season, he did have 29 saves. Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen has struggled lately with a 5.04 ERA over its last seven games. The Pirates snapped a seven-game losing streak and were pretty quiet at the deadline, holding on who they needed to and look toward the future. Pittsburgh is 22-29 at home and down just over two units in profit so it has held its own when getting big numbers here. The Pirates are struggling on offense here but certainly are in good shape here knowing exactly what it is getting. Roansy Contreras has some revenge in play after Milwaukee tagged him for seven runs in 1.2 innings two starts back and other than that, he has allowed three runs or less in all of his other eight starts including two or fewer six times. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 3.8 or fewer rpg and hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 78-37 (67.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-03-22 | Royals +139 v. White Sox | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City was a seller at the trade deadline which came as no surprise but not quite to the extent that many thought as they unloaded Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees and then Whit Merrifield to the Blue Jays but that was about the most of it. It has the fifth best farm system in baseball and are eying the future but this is still a capable lineup with a decent matchup at an even better price. The Royals are 19-32 on the road and despite being 13 games under .500, they have taken advantage of big numbers are they are down just over two units of profit. Brady Singer has had two bad starts this season and other than that, he has been terrific. Overall, he has a 3.42 ERA in 13 starts and that drops to 2.48 in 11 starts taking those two duds out. We have played against the White Sox numerous times as they remain in limbo, sitting at 51-51 and did nothing at the trade deadline to make a late season push as the lone transaction was getting pitcher Jake Diekman from Boston. Many thought more would be on the way as they are just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League but that did not happen. They come in as a significant favorite on Wednesday with a pitcher that has been awful as Lance Lynn sports a 6.42 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and that goes north of 7.00 taking out his first two starts of the season. The long ball has killed him, allowing 10 over nine outings. Here, we play against American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 hitting .260 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.60 or better and a WHIP of 1.30 or better. This situation is 41-26 (61.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (923) Kansas City Royals |
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08-02-22 | Cubs +151 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
his is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Chicago remains on the road after it lost three of four in San Francisco to fall to 21-28 on the highway but have not shown a net loss and although the gain has been minimal, it shows how the underdog prices have impacted the money. The Cubs have still won seven of their last 10 games and two of the losses against the Giants could have gone either way. The pitching has been great over this stretch as they have allowed 2.8 rpg in the ten games and send Keegan Thompson to the hill and he has had a good season with a 4.04 ERA and while his road numbers plummet, that was due to two bad starts and his ERA in the others is 1.801 over 20 combined innings. St. Louis has been stuck in a rut since mid-June as it has gone 17-21 over its last 38 games and it has been unable to make a move on the Brewers in the National League Central, remaining three games out. The Cardinals are 29-20 at home and as is the case with the Cubs record and units being skewed, the same is the case with the Cardinals who are up just over three units because of inflated numbers. Basically, everything has been average with the bullpen being the real problem of late with a 6.05 ERA over the last week. Adam Wainwright is doing his thing despite his age and has been great at home as usual but St. Louis has gone just 5-4 in his nine home starts. Here, we play on underdogs after a game without an extra base hit and with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. This situation is 40-23 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Chicago Cubs |
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08-02-22 | Mariners +145 v. Yankees | Top | 8-6 | Win | 145 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. After a loss on Monday, Seattle has gone 4-7 over its last 11 games after riding a franchise-tying 14-game winning streak and is now three games behind Toronto for the top Wild Card spot and only 3.5 games ahead of five other teams so there is little room for error. The Mariners are 28-26 on the road but are up over eight units in profit thanks to some big underdog lines. They are 11 games over .500 against right-handed starters, gaining over 13 units in profit and have a good chance to bolster that here. Logan Gilbert has quietly put together a great season with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starters with Seattle going 14-7 in those games. Since the All Star break, the Yankees are just 6-6 and while there is no sense of urgency with such a huge cushion in the American League, they will continue to be bet up which means big lines maintain. They are 41-13 at home and despite that +28 win differential, they are just a little over half of that in units which again comers down to the inflated numbers. Jameson Taillon has a 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season and those numbers increase slightly at home. The Yankees are 16-4 in his 20 starts but nine of those came against teams .500 or worse and he has gotten 5.9 rpg of support. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 161-158 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +71.2. 10* (967) Seattle Mariners |
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08-01-22 | Orioles +149 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 149 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our American League Underdog Game of the Month. The Orioles dropped the final two games of their three-game series at Cincinnati but have been playing better over the long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 24-14 over their last 38 games. The offense has picked up over the latter part of this run, averaging 5.6 rpg over their previous 22 games and while they have not been great on the road overall with a 22-31 record they are plus units because of the lines they have gotten and this is another example. Spencer Watkins has been pitching very solid all season as he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 13 starts, posting a 4.03 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and his numbers on the road have been better as he has a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over six starts. Texas won the series finale against the Angels on Sunday to take three of four in the series and head home with an overall record of 46-55 including 21-26 and have no business laying this number in what is not a big advantage on the mound. The Rangers are hitting .239 overall including .235 at home which is the sixth lowest home batting average in baseball. Jon Gray has been pitching extremely well this season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 18 starts and again, he should not be favored this big in this matchup considering he has been an underdog in 14 of his 18 starts. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 31-19 (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-31-22 | Mariners +125 v. Astros | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. After getting swept at Oakland, Houston has bounced back with three straight wins over Seattle to extend their lead in the American League West to 13 games and Sunday we can expect to see some rested players which has been outgoing for a while now. Jake Odorizzi started the season solid but since coming back into the rotation after a six-week layoff, he has a 5.91 ERA while facing Oakland three times and Kansas City once. Seattle has dropped six of nine games following a 15-game winning streak and is falling out in the Arican League Wild Card race after taking over the lead so this is a big game with the Yankees on deck. Gerige Kirby had a poor start against the Orioles at the end of June and take that out and he has posted a 1.82 ERA in his other eight starts since the end of May and he brings in a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. This has been a great underdog situation of late and it continues to even out which means big dog money even though this one is not as big because of the solid Seattle starter as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 158-155 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69. 10* (969) Seattle Mariners |
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07-31-22 | Guardians +190 v. Rays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 190 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay took out Cleveland 6-4 on Saturday to halt a 1-6 slide and now it comes into Sunday laying a big number. The Rays have been great at home and will be fully backed but there is too much value on the other side. We played against Shane McClanahan in his last start against the Orioles and we won and will go against him again because of the number and the matchup. He has been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he has allowed two runs or less in 14 straight starts but Tampa Bay has not given him much support as it has averaged 3.1 rpg in his last eight starts. Cleveland has won three of five games after the Saturday loss and are three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Guardians are now four games under .500 on the road and will send either Bryan Shaw or Kirk McCarty and either are viable options to keep it clean early and let the bullpen work it which has been solid of late with a 2.55 ERA over the last seven games. This has been a great underdog situation of late and it continues to even out which means big dog money as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 158-155 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69. 10* (967) Cleveland Guardians |
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07-30-22 | Cardinals v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 135 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Washington came off a successful 3-3 roadtrip for bettors as it picked up close to three units of profit thanks to big underdog wins. The Nationals lost the opener of this series on Friday 6-2 despite outhitting St. Louis 8-6 as they were done in by four sacrifice runs. Washington has struggled at home as it is 21 games under .500 but is catching a good number in a better pitching matchup. Erick Fedde has had an average season with a 4.95 ERA in 19 starts and he has been better at home with a 4.47 ERA in 10 outings and he has allowed three runs or less in nine of those with a poor start against Arizona in April was the lone clunker. St. Louis is 3-3 since the All Star break following the Friday win and the Cardinals are now 24-27 on the road. They remain 2.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and the starting pitching has struggled on the road overall with a 4.96 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .271 Dakota Hudson has been all over the place this season and his home/road splits tell the story. He has a 2.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine home start but a 5.36 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in nine road starts and has allowed four runs or more in three of his last five on the highway. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 52-31 (62.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) Washington Nationals |
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07-30-22 | A's +163 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Oakland has been playing its best baseball of the season as it has won 12 of its last 20 games highlighted by a three-game home sweep over the Astros, the first one this season where they have been horrible. The road has been a lot better as the Athletics are 21-29, which is nothing great but have profited nearly five units thanks to lines like this. Paul Blackburn has the very rare home/road splits as he has an 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in eight home starts but has a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 road outings where Oakland has gone 7-4. Chicago continues to struggle as it is 3-4 coming out of the break and is a game under. 500 which puts them four games behind the Twins in the American League Central. The White Sox are six games over .500 on the road but are now seven games under .500 at home where they have dropped close to 18 units yet continue to be overvalued. Johnny Cueto has been on a great run since allowing five runs against the Cubs as he has allowed three runs or less in his last nine starts but his offense has been inconsistent around him and the White Sox are 4-5 in those games. He too has opposite home/road splits and Chicago has gone 1-5 in his six home starts. Here, we play on teams starting a pitcher who allowed seven or more or more runs last outing going up against an opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 65-46 (58.6 percent) over the last five seasons while netting 36.6 units. 10* (921) Oakland Athletics |
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07-29-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +197 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. We lost with Colorado Thursday and it was not close but we come back with the Rockies Friday against a once again overpriced Dodgers team. Prior to Thursday, the Rockies walked off against Chicago and we are playing them for a lot of the same reasons. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday and then got the split with Chicago which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 29-24 while hitting .288 and averaging 5.8 rpg. Chad Kuhl is coming off a rough outing against Milwaukee but is one of the anomalies at home where he has a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight starts at Coors Field. The fact that the Dodgers are 34 games over .500 but are just up over two units in profits shows how overpriced they have been and we are seeing that again here. They are 31-17 on the road but it is the same as the overall numbers as they are just over two units up in profits. Julio Urias has had a great season with a 2.72 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 19 start including a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 road starts but there is the caveat of Coors Field where he has a 5.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in nine starts. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 30-15 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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07-29-22 | Mets v. Marlins +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Marlins rallied for a win over Cincinnati on Thursday to force the four-game series split and the Marlins head home where they are a game under .500 this season. Miami is still fighting for a National League Wild Card spot as it 7.5 games out and while that may seem insurmountable, there are only four teams ahead of the Marlins with 63 games remaining. They come into Friday as a home underdog with the Cy Young favorite taking the hill with revenge and that is a take. Sandy Alcantara has a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 20 starts including a 1.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 10 home outings. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his games and the last time he allowed more was six starts back when he gave up four runs against the Mets and do not think he has not forgotten that. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep over the Yankees and have won three straight games to maintain their three-game lead in the National League East. They are 30-20 on the road with the starting pitching being the biggest weakness as they come in with a 4.24 ERA and they send Chriss Bassitt to the mound and he has been solid with a 3.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but his ERA rises to 4.47 in eight road starts and now has the pressure of facing the Cy Young favorite. The Mets are 13-23 in their last 36 road games after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start, playing on Friday. This situation is 52-28 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (952) Miami Marlins |
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07-28-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +195 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The fact that the Dodgers are 33 games over .500 but are just up over one unit in profits shows how overpriced they have been and we are seeing that again here. Los Angeles avoided the home sweep against Washington with a 7-1 win on Wednesday and it is heavily priced Thursday on the road and these are the spots to go against. They are 30-17 on the road but it is the same as the overall numbers as they are just over one unit up in profits. Tyler Anderson has been very good in the bottom of the rotation as he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has been nearly as good on the road but Coors Field is a different place and he has already experienced that once this season where he allowed four runs on a season high ten hits. We won with Colorado on Wednesday as the Rockies walked off against Chicago and we are playing them for a lot of the same reasons. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday and then got the split with Chicago which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 29-23 while hitting .286 and averaging 5.9 rpg. Jose Urena has made four starts with the Rockies and in two at home, he has a 1.50 ERA. Here, we play on National League home teams hitting between .255 and .269 and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 175-95 (64.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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07-28-22 | Phillies v. Pirates +185 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. After getting swept by the Cubs in their first series after the break, the Phillies took two of three against the Braves thanks to a 7-2 Wednesday to narrow the Wild Card gap in the National League. They hit the road where they are 25-22 and the offense has been right around average and Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in 11 of its last 16 games and is in a tough spot here although the line is saying otherwise. Zack Wheeler has been outstanding this season but his home/road splits tell more of the story as he has a 1.58 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 10 home starts but a 4.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in eight road starts. The Pirates are four games under .500 at home but are in the plus in the money thanks to getting numbers like this as the perception is they have a big disadvantage in the pitching matchup and over the last two and a half months, they do not. Zach Thompson got off to a rough start this season with a 10.05 ERA in his first four starts but instead of continuing the poor pitching he got really good really fast. Over his next 11 starts he posted a 2.62 ERA and he cashed some big underdog numbers and he has another one here. Coming off a bad start against Miami, expect a bounce back here. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-27-22 | Astros v. A's +180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 180 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Houston and Oakland are close to 30 games apart so the Astros will again be a popular play here but the value is on the home team based on public perception steaming this number as well as the starting pitching matchup. Houston is cruising in the American League West and when they started to get threatened by Seattle, even though it was not a real threat, just a 15-game winning streak for the Mariner, they pulled off the sweep. They are going to coast in and are already taking health into consideration by resting starters each game. Christian Javier has been decent with a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP but he has struggled on the road with a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six outings while getting only 3.3 rpg of support. Oakland has struggled at home in all aspects but there are times to play the Athletics and this is one of those in a good situational spot. They have been playing better, winning six of their last nine games and the offense has led the way averaging 4.5 rpg. Cole Irvin is a pitcher than the common fan knows nothing about but he has been great and has had some luck because he plays for Oakland. He has a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts and in nine home outings, his ERA is drops to 1.63 and his WHIP dips to 0.92 and Oakland has gone 4-5 in those games which is over 25 percent of its entire wins at home. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with an on base percentage .320 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 75-47 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) Oakland Athletics |
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07-27-22 | White Sox v. Rockies +129 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 129 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox continue to flounder around .500 as the injury bug will not go away, the pitching has been very inconsistent and while it has had its moments, the bats have been even more up and down. They are playing solid on the road as they are 27-21 but in Colorado, this is not a typical road game as we all know anything can happen and while they can be on the plus side of that also, a home dog in this spot is the way to go. Overall, Chicago is ranked No. 17 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 21 in runs allowed per nine innings. Lucas Giolito has been all over the place this season as he has a 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 17 starts and while he has been slightly better on the road, pitching at Coors Field is not ideal for a pitcher that has allowed 5, 6, 7 and 8 runs in four of his last seven starts. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 28-23 while hitting .286 and averaging 5.9 rpg. Antonio Senzatela has not been in much better form but he has been decent at home as far as starting pitching standards are here with a 4.02 ERA and has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts at home. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start and posting an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 43-27 (61.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Colorado Rockies |
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07-27-22 | Braves -140 v. Phillies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Getaway Game of the Month. Atlanta continues to make its move up the National League East as it is two games behind the Mets and while it was on a two-game slide, it came back with a big win on Tuesday to keep pace with New York. The Braves are 26-19 on the road and while they are not hitting great, they are averaging 4.7 rpg on the highway so they have been clutch when it counts. The pitching has been solid and the bullpen has led the way with a 2.90 ERA on the road and they face a Phillies offense that has been struggling. Charlie Morton had a bad start against the Mets prior to the All Star game but bounced back by shutting out the Angels over six innings in his last outing and he has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. The Phillies are now three games over .500 including a .500 record at home and they are running out of time in the National League East as they are nine games out of first place and have fallen three games out of the final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in 11 of its last 15 games and is in a tough spot here to get the bats going that were on fire at one point. The Phillies send Kyle Gibson to the hill who has put together a pair of good starts over his last five but the other three have been awful and his ERA over this five-game stretch is 6.75. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with an on-base percentage of .350 or less and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.35 or better. This situation is 233-101 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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07-26-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +155 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 155 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The anticipated series between the Giants and Dodgers did not live up to the billing as San Francisco got swept in the four-game set. The Giants are now just a game over .500 and have fallen three games under .500 on the road and now sit five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Both hitting and pitching has taken a dive as they are No. 23 in batting average and No. 24 in batting average allowed and the former has really taken a plunge on the road where they are hitting just .231, seventh lowest in baseball. Carlos Rodon will be a very public favorite here based on the short price as well as the fact he is coming off a poor start against the Dodgers in his last game. He has been great at home with a 2.05 ERA but that rises to 3.55 on the road and that includes a poor start here earlier this month where he allowed four runs in five innings in an 8-3 loss. Arizona is six games worse than the Giants but have the same record at home as the Giants have on the road and that is where the value lies along with the home/road splits of its own starting pitching. The Diamondbacks are 10-11 over their last 21 games which is nothing good but playing against a team that is 10-17 over its last 27 games makes sense. Tyler Gilbert has been good in his six starts but the damage has come on the road where he has an 8.00 ERA compared to a 1.46 ERA at home. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .250 or less and with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.10 or better and WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 39-16 (70.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-26-22 | Rays v. Orioles +182 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 182 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. We won with Baltimore on Monday and will back them again for a lot of the same reasons. Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and is a game back for the top spot in the American League Wild card race. The Rays are now 21-26 on the road and are laying the number here based on name as well as starting pitching name, who is very good no doubt. The offense has struggled away from home as they are averaging just 4.1 rpg with a .241 batting average but the pitching has been the real problem of late even though their ace takes the hill. Shane McClanahan has been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he has allowed two runs or less in 13 straight starts and this will be his first start in Baltimore. Prior to the Monday win, the Orioles lost two of three against the Yankees but has been solid at home with a 27-19 record and have been playing better over the long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 21-11 over their last 32 games. The offense was on a great roll before facing Nestor Cortes on Sunday, averaging 6.9 rpg over their previous 14 games and put up five runs on Monday. Spencer Watkins has been pitching nearly as good, over a shorter period of time as he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 151-151 (50 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +63.1. 10* (912) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-25-22 | Padres v. Tigers +142 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 142 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. After a split with Oakland to start the second half, the Tigers lost both games against the Twins over the weekend and have found themselves in a funk. Detroit had been on a solid run in early July but has faded down the stretch, losing 11 of their last 13 games and are 8-11 over their last 19 games and getting a good number here with no real disadvantage in the home/road splits or the pitching matchup. The Tigers are two games under .500 at home which is 14 better than their performance on the road so there is huge value in this home dog number. Drew Hutchison has a 4.38 ERA on the season but that improves to 3.95 at home and has been reliable as a starter since getting back into the rotation last season after a three-year layoff. The Padres took the first two games against Mets to open the second half but they dropped the finale on Sunday and the offense continues to bring then down as they managed only seven runs during the three-game set. They have been better on the road than at home and are favored here because of that and while many will call for a bounce back, it is not an ideal situation. Sean Manea has had a very similar season with additional starts as he has a 4.11 ERA and has struggled over the last five weeks with a 5.40 ERA over his last six starts and that is an issue with a struggling offense behind him. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 51-31 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (974) Detroit Tigers |
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07-25-22 | Rays v. Orioles +115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay closed the weekend with a pair of losses against Kansas City and has no business being favored here again on the road and are now further back in the American League Wild card race. The Rays are now 21-25 on the road and are laying the number here based on name as well as starting pitching name. The offense has struggled away from home as they are averaging just 4.1 rpg with a .241 batting average but the pitching has been the real problem of late. Corey Kluber has been having an ok season with a 3.73 ERA but has not fared as well on the road as he has a 4.09 ERA and is coming off a poor outing in his last start against Baltimore. The Orioles lost two of three against the Yankees but has been solid at home with a 26-19 record and have been playing better over a long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 20-11 over their last 31 games. The offense was on a great roll before facing Nestor Cortes on Sunday, averaging 6.9 rpg over their previous 14 games. Austin Voth has made five starts this season and each one has been good as he has allowed no more than three in those games and he is starting to ramp it up, going longer in each outing. He has gone longer in each game and has nearly doubled his pitch count from 41 in Game One to 76 in his last start and should climb more with the added bonus of a great bullpen behind him. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 scoring 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 61-31 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-24-22 | Astros v. Mariners +107 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our A.L. West Game of the Year. Houston ended the Seattle 15-game winning streak on Friday and backed it up with a 3-1 win on Saturday and the Astros continue their dominance of the American League West as they are now 31-16 against divisional opponents which has certainly helped their 12-game lead and counting. That being said, they have a tough matchup here as they are hitting just .239 against left-handed pitching while averaging just 4.1 rpg. Framber Valdez has been great all season as he has a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts but has shown signs of bad command of late as he has walked 15 over his last five starts and Houston is just 2-2 in his last four road outings after a 3-0 start. Houston is 29-38 against the money line in its last 67 road games after having won five or six of their last seven games. Seattle went into the break with some of the best momentum a team could have and has come out flat on offense by scoring just three runs in the first two games. Julio Rodriguez missed the first two games with a sore left wrist, home run derby related most likely, but is expected to be back on Sunday. Robbie Ray gets the ball for the Mariners and after a not so great start where he posted a 4.97 ERA in his first 12 starts but has a 1.36 ERA over his last seven outings with a solid 58:10 K:BB ratio. Seattle is 12-2 against the money line in its last 14 games against teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game this season. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 75-47 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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07-23-22 | Twins v. Tigers +156 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Minnesota and Detroit got a late start to the second half as they get their series started on Friday. The Twins have been pretty average over the last month as they are 12-15 over their last 27 games and maintain a two-game lead over Cleveland in the American League Central. They are a game over .500 on the road and while the bats have been good away from home, the pitching has been average. Joe Ryan has been above average with a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six road starts but he does not warrant a favorite price like this. Detroit had been on a solid run in early July but has faded down the stretch, losing nine of their last 11 games and are 8-9 over their last 17 games and getting a good number here with no real disadvantage in the home/road splits or the pitching matchup. The Tigers are two games under .500 at home which is 14 better than their performance on the road so there is huge value in this home dog number as they are on the plus side. Michael Pineda gets the ball for the Tigers and he was pitching well with a 3.58 ERA through his first eight starts before getting roughed up in his last outing before the break against Cleveland as he allowed eight runs in two innings. That was on the road where he has a 10.22 ERA and 1.86 WHIP but at home he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 149-145 (50.7 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +65.1. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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07-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox +124 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. It is safe to say Boston is pretty embarrassed from its Friday loss and it is time for a regroup on Saturday and quickly. It has now lost seven of its last eight games and the Red Sox now 16 games behind the Yankees in the American League East so that is long gone but they are still in the Wild Card hunt as they are four games back with a lot of baseball left. Boston is now 23-21 at home and overall, the offense has been solid as they are No. 8 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 4 in batting average and look to get that going in what will be a difficult matchup. Kutter Crawford has made two starts since re-entering the rotation and has made the most of it with a 3.27 ERA over 11 starts. The Red Sox are 6-2 in their last eight home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Toronto exploded on offense in its first game after the break and while the overall total was an aberration, this is the potent offense that has been more on display after a slow start as it is No. 9 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 2 in batting average. The Blue Jays have moved three games ahead of the Red Sox after falling behind them for a short spell and have won four straight and six of their last seven. All Star Alek Manoah has been excellent this season but after a spectacular start, he has come down to earth of late, posting a 3.46 ERA over his last six starts which is still very good but not like his 1.67 ERA in his first 12 outings. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start, playing on Saturday. This situation is 70-35 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Boston Red Sox |
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07-22-22 | Angels +135 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Angels are another team where the All Star break came at an opportune time as they went in with a 2-12 record over their last 14 games and will look to regroup in a difficult spot but with their ace on the hill catching a great number. Los Angeles is 17-26 on the road which is certainly not good but Shohei Ohtani is responsible for nearly a quarter of those wins where it is 4-3 in his seven road starts as he has a 2.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in those games. He has been on a run of all runs with a 0.45 ERA in his last six starts, all Angels wins. This is a great price and with a run like he is on, it cannot be overlooked and the time off can only be a benefit. The Braves are on a 14-6 run over their last 20 games and continue to keep pace in the National League East, trailing the Mets by 2.5 games heading into the weekend. Atlanta is 31-20 at home but is up just over one unit as it has been overpriced, losing a ton of games as a sizeable favorite. Charlie Morton has been up and down with a 4.45 ERA on the season including a 4.31 ERA in nine home starts as the long ball has hurt him, allowing nine in those nine games. He has had some great starts but has also allowed four runs or more in eight of his outings including his last one. Here, we play on American League road teams averaging 4.2 or fewer and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 38-16 (70.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (927) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-22-22 | Padres +164 v. Mets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 164 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. San Diego could not have asked for a better time for the All Star break as it was stuck in neutral with an 11-18 record over its last 29 games and went from a short stint in first place to now sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres start off with a stern test in New York against the Mets and Max Scherzer but there is really good value here with an offense that could pop. Yu Darvish has a 3.41 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his 17 starts and while his 5.25 road ERA is not good, his 1.27 WHIP is as he does not walk many and has to avoid giving up the long ball. San Diego is 16-8 against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start this season. The Mets closed on a 10-5 run before the break including a much needed 5-2 roadtrip that gave then a 2.5-game lead in the National League Easy over Atlanta. New York is in the top seven in baseball in runs scored per nice innings and batting average on both sides so being a big favorite for that makes sense but they face one of the top road teams in baseball. Scherzer has been dominant since his return to the hill with a 1.40 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in three starts but has had his struggles against the Padres. The Mets are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting team .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 30-22 (57.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (907) San Diego Padres |
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07-21-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -114 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Miami went into the break with three straight losses as the bats got stymied by Philadelphia as it scored just one run in the entire three-game set. This is just a one-game series from a makeup from the early cancellations and the Marlins could use it before hitting the road to face the Pirates and Reds where they can make up some ground in the Wild Card. They are currently 7.5 games out but with plenty of time left. Pablo Lopez has been solid over his last three starts with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and while he posted a couple poor starts prior to that, those were on the road and he brings in a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight home starts. Miami is 20-8 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Texas got swept at home against the red hot Mariners at home in the four-game set prior to the time off and it is now 10 games under .500 overall and in worse shape in the American League Wild Card, sitting back further with more teams in front. The Rangers have admittedly been better on the road as they are three games under .500 but that is helping keep this number down. Jon Gray has put together a great run where he has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts and that is also playing into this number where we can go contrarian. Texas is 5-24 against the money line in its last 29 road games after four or more consecutive losses. Miami falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on home teams after getting shut out in two straight games. This situation is 109-62 (63.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) Miami Marlins |
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07-17-22 | Brewers +161 v. Giants | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Game of the Month. Make it two late wins for San Francisco in this series. On Friday, the Giants trailed the Brewers 5-2 entering the ninth inning but a pair of solo home runs started the scoring and then Mike Yastrzemski completed the comeback with a grand slam to win. On Saturday, it was a bases loaded walk in the eighth inning that sent the winning run across. The Giants improved to 25-22 at home but are down over eight units of profit as they have been overpriced in spots and this is another one of those. The big reason is the performance of Logan Webb as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts. The Giants have been favored by more than -150 in seven times and those were against Arizona, Washington twice, Colorado twice, Kansas City and Cincinnati and the common theme is those teams are all at least six games under .500. The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee heads into Sunday with just a one game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central and it needs to rebound from the last two games in this series. The Brewers are 29-23 on the road and showing a small net profit as they too have been overpriced in spots but are getting a huge number here. Aaron Ashby has made 11 starts for the Brewers and the majority have been solid including the last two where he has allowed three runs on nine hits over 9.1 innings and overall, the Brewers have won five of his 11 starts and this is easily the biggest underdog price over that stretch. The Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 games following a loss. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 31-18 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-16-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Seattle has been red hot as it has won 12 straight games, 15 of 16 and 20 of its last 23 games to vault all the way up into the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card race. The offense and pitching have both been above average but neither has overly dominated as both have coincided well when the other has been a letdown. This is a contrarian play by going against the Mariners and we have laid off until now as this is a good pitching matchup as everyone sees the overall numbers and not recent. Logan Gilbert was awesome early in the season but has been leaking some oil lately with a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his last three starts and he has been part of that fortunate run support. Texas was playing very well but has run into a slump as it has lost 10 of its last 15 games to fall five games under .500 but has performed well from a money standpoint. The Rangers are three games under .500 at home which is nothing great but they can get it here in an undervalued spot and with a bullpen that has been really good. Spencer Howard is making just his fourth start of the season and his third since re-entering the rotation and he settled down last time out by allowing just one run in five innings against Oakland and he can build from that in his longest start since dating back to 2010. Texas is 17-9 in its 26 games against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 149-141 (51.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69.1. 10* (970) Texas Rangers |
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07-15-22 | White Sox +123 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 123 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Both Chicago and Minnesota have been playing pretty mediocre of late and we are grabbing the White Sox in a contrarian spot with the more established and successful starter coming off a poor some poor outings. Chicago has fared better on the road than at home as it is four games over .500 on the highway compared to six games under .500 at home. The offense has struggled with injuries all season and they were finally back to full health before Eloy Jiminez got hurt Wednesday and was held out Thursday but could be back here. Michael Kopech as been on a rough stretch as he 6.15 ERA over his last five starts as he has allowed seven home ruins after allowing just two in his first 11 starts. Minnesota has lost four of its last six games and after jumping out to a big lead in the American League Central not that long ago, the Twins lead is down to 4.5 games over the Guardians and five games over the White Sox. They have been good at home at 26-19 but this should be more of a pickem with the pitching matchup. Devin Smeltzer opened the season with a 1.93 ERA in his first five starts but has been all over the place since, putting up a 5.67 ERA over his last six starts and while has been better at home, he cannot be trusted during this run as his limited career innings of 69.2 over three years prior to this season seem to be already catching up. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 79-51 (60.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Chicago White Sox |
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07-15-22 | Phillies +146 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 146 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Both plays today are contrarian based on recency pitching bias and that is the case here for both teams in this matchup. The Phillies had a much needed day off as they were swept by Toronto in the two-game set and have lost four straight games following a 5-1 run. They are nine games behind the Mets in the National League East but the Wild Card is going to be very much in play as they are currently three games out with a lot of games left. They hope to get this offense going again as they have averaged 2.0 rpg over their last six games but are still No. 6 in baseball in runs scored per nine innings. Kyle Gibson settled down after a horrible six-game stretch as he shut out the Cardinals over seven innings but everyone will be more concerned about everything before that. Miami won the final two games against Pittsburgh to settle for a series split and it is now two games under .500 and is also in the Wild Card hunt at 5.5 games out. The line is based on the starters no doubt and Sandy Alcantara has been sensational as it the current odds on favorite to win the Cy Young but it begs the question why is this line not higher? There is still value on the Phillies though as he is coming off two starts where he allowed no runs and while he had 10 strikeouts in one of those, his K numbers have come way down and the Phillies have been a low strikeout team. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 36-16 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-14-22 | Padres v. Rockies +123 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 123 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. We played on Colorado Wednesday and will back the Rockies again Thursday in this series finale. The Rockies have struggled on the road where they are 15-27 but have been much better at home and while the pitching has been poor at Coors Field, this is the second straight starter that has been decent here. Colorado is hitting .280 at home while averaging 5.8 rpg and have scored six runs or more 24 times at Coors Field. Overall, on the season, they are averaging 5.2 rpg while hitting .280 against left-handed pitching and can get it done here. Kyle Freeland does not have great numbers at home but that is due to his first two games of the season where he allowed 10 runs in 11 innings and take those out and his ERA drops a full run in his other seven starts. Colorado is 46-21 against the money line in home games against National League teams with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. San Diego continues to struggle on offense as it remains in a slump as it has averaged 2.9 rpg over its last 13 games and its time on top of the National League West was short-lived, one day to be exact, and it now sits 8.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres have been solid on the road and has a hot starter which is why they come in as a road favorite again. Blake Snell has seen limited action and is coming off his two best games in his nine overall outings as he has allowed two runs over 11 innings while striking out 23 and walking six which makes this a great contrarian spot to go against him. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 36-16 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Colorado Rockies |
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07-13-22 | Padres v. Rockies +152 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 152 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our N.L. West Game of the Year. The Rockies are going nowhere as they are 11 games under .500 but the damage has been done on the road where they are 15-27 and are sitting at .500 at home and catching a good number facing one of the best pitchers in the league but in what could be a great spot. Colorado is hitting .280 at home while averaging 5.8 rpg and have scored six runs or more 23 times at Coors Field. Chad Kuhl has been pretty good this season with the exceptions of a few bad outings but he has been very good at home with a 3.27 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven starts. Colorado is 44-21 against the money line in home games against National League teams with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. San Diego continues to struggle on offense as it remains in a slump as it has averaged 2.5 rpg over its last 11 games and its time on top of the National League West was short-lived, one day to be exact, and it now sits 7.5 games behind the dodgers. The Padres have been solid on the road but have not exactly lit it up of late and while they send their best pitcher to the hill, this is not a great environment. Joe Musgrove is coming off another gem as he allowed one runs on one hit in seven innings against the Giants at home and while he has dominated the Rockies in four starts since coming to San Diego, those were all at home. San Diego is 31-51 in its last 82 games against the money line in the second half of the season against teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 32-11 (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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07-12-22 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 137 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. St. Louis had lost eight of ten games including the first two games of this homestand against the Phillies as it was shoutout in both games but bounced back with a pair of wins over Philadelphia on Sunday and Monday. The Cardinals trail the Brewers by two and a half games in the National League Central and they remain home where they are 26-18. St. Louis is ranked No. 7 in runs scored per nine innings and the pitching has been flirting with the top ten as well. Matthew Liberatore will be making his seventh career start and while he has been up and down but has not allowed a run in two home starts, allowing just five hits over 10 innings. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Dodgers were in a funk for a while and saw their lead in the National League evaporate and they actually fell into second place for a day but they have now won seven straight games and 11 of their last 12 and now have a 7.5-game lead over San Diego in the division. Los Angeles has the best record in the National League and currently is three and a half games ahead of the Mets for the Top Spot. Mitch White gets the ball in the series opener and he has been solid with a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven starts and is coming off one of his best starts against Colorado at home and has been as effective on the road while the Dodgers have lost his last two road outings. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four road games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 27-12 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-11-22 | Tigers +120 v. Royals | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. We have been riding Detroit a few times recently and it has come through but Sunday was a tough loss as they could not muster anything after scoring two runs in the first inning in an extra inning defeat. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 4.8 rpg over a recent 21-game stretch. Detroit has struggled on the road but has won three of its last five and while it is 11 games under .500, the Tigers are down just under two units of profit showing the value has and is still there. Alex Faedo has been average but consistent, allowing three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts and has performed well on the road with the exception of a bad start in Boston. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Kansas City took two of three against Cleveland over the weekend and it comes into Monday with a 16-26 record at home where it is averaging just 3.4 rpg while hitting only .245. The Royals have averaged only 2.8 rpg over their last four games after a solid run. The pitching has been even worse as the team ERA is 4.87 at home including a 5.14 ERA and 1.63 WHIP from the bullpen. Daniel Lynch is coming off a pair of good starts but has been bad at times since mid-May as he had a five-game run with an ERA of 8.25 over his previous five starts which includes a 9.45 ERA in three home outings. The Royals are 10-23 in their last 33 games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 34-20 (63 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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07-11-22 | Mets +108 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. The Mets wasted an incredible effort from Taijuan Walker who tossed a three-hit effort over seven innings but he got no offense as they faced Sandy Alcantara who has been spectacular this season. Coupled with the Braves win Sunday, they are now only a game and a half ahead of Atlanta and opening this series with their horse is optimal. New York is 25-18 on the road which is the third best road record in the National League and it brings in an offense that is ranked No. 4 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 5 in batting average. Max Scherzer was awesome in his first start off the IL as he allowed just two hits and no runs while striking out 11 in six innings and tossed only 79 pitches and will be extended here. The Mets are 25-6 in their last 31 games following a loss. The Braves won in extra innings on Sunday as they swept the Nationals as they continue to ascend up the division after a poor start with their World Series hangover. Most of the recent success has come against inferior opposition which has made the pitching number skyrocket as they have allowed three runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games. Max Fried has been on a roll with a 1.35 ERA over his last four starts and he has pretty similar home and road splits but he has not gotten a ton of run support here as the offense has given him only 3.7 rpg in his 11 home outings and that should go down on Monday. The Braves are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Braves are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 68-37 (64.8 percent) since 1997. 9* (905) New York Mets |
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07-10-22 | Tigers +170 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. One of the hottest teams in baseball entering Saturday of all teams was Detroit as it had won six straight games but that winning streak came to a crashing halt early as the Tigers fell behind 6-0 after two innings and it was over at that point. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 5.0 rpg over a recent 20-game stretch. Detroit has struggled on the road but has won three of its last four and while it is 10 games under .500, the tigers are down just under a unit of profit showing the value has and is still there. Drew Hutchison is making his fourth start since entering the rotation and he has been dependable with a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Detroit is 8-2 in road games against teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg this season. The White Sox got that much needed win Saturday and while momentum is on their side, it can be very short-lived and while one of their two aces takes the hill on Sunday, they are overpriced similar to Thursday as Chicago has no business laying this number. They are 7-10 over their last 17 games and are five games behind the Twins in the American League Central and are having a tough time trying to get over the .500 mark as Chicago is three games under .500 and has struggled at home, going 18-25 while losing a huge 16.2 units of profit. Michael Kopech got lit up last time out against Minnesota and over his last four starts, he has a 7.08 ERA. The White Sox are 4-10 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 147-135 (52.1 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +72.8. 10* (969) Detroit Tigers |
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07-09-22 | Marlins v. Mets -167 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our National League East Game of the Month. After a 10-0 win on Thursday, the Mets dropped Game Two on Friday as they were held to just two runs and five hits. New York is one of the top offenses in baseball as it is ranked No. 3 in runs scored per nine innings, No. 4 in batting average and No. 9 in OPS and look to bounce back on Saturday. The Mets have seen their lead shrink to 2.5 games over the Braves in the National League East and are in a good spot to at least retain that and get some momentum rolling prior a series with Atlanta starting on Monday. Carlos Carrasco bounced back from a pair of bad starts against the red hot Astros and he has been solid with the exception of a few bad starts with all of those coming against some quality teams and he has a 3.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in nine home starts. The Mets are 24-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher while going 25-10 against the money line against division opponents this season. Miami had a six-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Angels Thursday and busted out of a mini slump where is averaged 1.8 rpg over its previous four games. The Marlins are 20-25 on the road with an offense that is hitting just .227 on the highway. Braxton Garrett will be making his seventh start of the season and he has been ok as he has posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his first six starts. Miami is 7-27 in its last 34 games against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 63-14 (81.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) New York Mets |
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07-08-22 | Astros v. A's +170 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Houston had an eight-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Royals on Wednesday but bounced back with a win Thursday afternoon as Justin Verlander pitched another gem in what has been an incredible season after missing almost two years. The Astros retained their huge lead in the American League West and now hit the road where they have been great with a 27-16 record thanks to stellar pitching but the bats remain below average where they are hitting .235 with a .305 OBP. Jose Urquidy has been pitching well of late, allowing only one run in each of his last three starts but he was not pitching well before that, posting a 4.99 ERA and 1.52 WHIP going in and he has a 5.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in nine road starts. Oakland won its series against Toronto after winning the first two games and dropping the third game and that was just its second home series win of the season where it has been awful with a 10-30 record, obviously the worst in baseball but the Athletics are catching a great price because of it. The bats have been listless but the pitching has kept them competitive and the bullpen has been great of late with a 1.57 ERA over the last seven games. Paul Blackburn has had a very good season with a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 16 starts as he has allowed three runs or less in in 13 of those and two runs or less in 11 outings. Here, we play on home teams after a game where they had four or less hits, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. This situation is 107-48 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Oakland Athletics |
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07-07-22 | Tigers +213 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 213 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. Detroit took the series against the Guardians as it swept the four-game set and it playing some good baseball. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 5.3 rpg over a recent 17-game stretch and they have a good chance to keep it going against another division rival that is struggling and overpriced based on pitching. Detroit has not played well on the road but is at 5-5 in its last 10 road games after getting swept at the Yankees. Beau Brieske has been up and down but has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 13 starts. Detroit is 9-4 in its last 13 games revenging five or more consecutive losses. The White Sox are coming off a dramatic 9-8 win over the Twins on Wednesday to snap a two-game slide. They are 6-8 over their last 14 games and are 5.5 games behind the Twins in the American League Central and are having a tough time trying to get over the .500 mark as Chicago is two games under .500 and has struggled at home, going 17-23. Dylan Cease is on a solid run as he has allowed one run or less in seven straight starts and this is the reason for the price. The White Sox are 4-13 home games against starting pitchers who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 144-133 (52 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +70. 10* (923) Detroit Tigers |
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07-06-22 | Rangers -105 v. Orioles | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our American League Game of the Month. Texas has lost five of its last six games following a pair of losses to open this series against Baltimore but it has been decent on the road at 20-22 that includes 2.3 units of profit and overall, the Rangers have been right in the middle of baseball in both offense and pitching and are in a good matchup in the series finale. Texas is well out on the American League West but it has a good young nucleus that has played well after a bad start, going 31-26 after a 6-14 start. Glenn Otto got hit hard twice this season, both at home against Washington and Boston, two of the best road hitting teams in baseball and taking those out, his ERA drops from 5.63 to 3.35 and his ERA on the road this season is 3.60 in five starts. Texas is 26-19 against starting pitchers who give up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. Baltimore has won three straight games following a four-game losing streak and it too has been playing well to close out the first half of the season as it has gone 14-9 over its last 23 games. The Orioles are 38-44 overall and they send Spencer Watkins to the hill who has been on a roll since coming back from the IL as he has allowed one run in 11 innings after posting a 6.00 ERA in his first eight starts. Here, we play against American League home underdogs with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. This situation is 52-16 (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Texas Rangers |
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07-05-22 | Cubs +126 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 126 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
his is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Cubs had a four-game winning streak come to an end against Boston on Sunday in extra innings and then had their game in hand on Monday against the Brewers but allowed a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth inning and lost on a three-run home run in the bottom of the tenth inning. Chicago has played better on the road than at home and while still not great, it gets to face a rookie pitcher for a second time in just his sixth start. Kyle Hendricks has some below average numbers but that can be attributed to four bad outings in his 15 starts as he has allowed three runs or less 10 times. The Cubs are 15-7 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Milwaukee has now won three of its last four games and has a two-game lead in the National League Central over the Cardinals. The Brewers have won three in a row at home where it is 20-15 which is good but not great and has lost money in the process. The offense has struggled here with a .237 batting average and .312 OBP and have a tough matchup here. They send Jason Alexander to the hill and he has gotten off to a solid rookie season with a 3.82 ERA but more reflective is his 1.70 WHIP as he has given up a lot of contact and walking 11 in five starts. Milwaukee is s 11-18 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 27-15 (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (907) Chicago Cubs |
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07-04-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +171 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 171 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. San Francisco has lost four straight games after getting swept as home by the White Sox and they are now 8.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National Leaue West. They are two games over .500 on the road and they do not warrant to be favored by a number like this away from home especially with the offense in a tough spot. The Giants are hitting .238 on the road and have struggled of late especially with a .202 average over their last seven games. Carlos Rodon has had a great first season with the Giants as he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but the Giants just are nor winning as they are 7-8 in his 15 starts including a 3-5 record on the road. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Arizona lost two of three at Colorado over the weekend but has won four of its last six games following a five-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are 19-22 at home and despite playing in what is considered a hitters park, they have been led by the pitching which is the case tonight. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.63 ERA on the season and he has been very good at home, posting a 2.98 ERA in eight starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts with those other two being on the road and this is his fourth start against his former team and he has a 3.93 ERA in the first three meetings. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than .300 and with a team slugging percentage of .390 or worse on the season. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-03-22 | Angels +200 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, Los Angeles has won eight of its last 14 games and it has the potential on offense to bust out but it has been held to only two runs thus far. The Angels are banking on Mike Trout to get back together as he has gone 0-7 with seven strikeouts in this series and as a while, Los Angeles is ranked No. 20 in runs scored per nine innings but still have a strong OPS despite getting handcuffed by Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Angels turn to Jose Suarez to try and stop the bleeding and he has been pitching well as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his eight start. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four games during Game Three of a series. Houston has won five straight, seven of eight and 13 of its last 16 games as it continues to pull away in the American League West with the closest pursuer being the Rangers which are 12.5 games back. The Astros pitching has been unreal as they have allowed one run or less in seven of their last eight games, giving up an average of 1.4 rpg over that stretch. The offense has picked it up over the last two games as it belted five home runs on Saturday after scoring two runs each in its previous two games. Framber Valdez has been at the top of the rotation but his command has been inconsistent, walking 14 over his last six starts. The Astros are 1-5 in their last six games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 137-129 (51.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +64.9. 10* (919) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-02-22 | Padres +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. After snapping a three-game losing streak on Wednesday, the Padres have dropped the first two games of this series as the offense has been handcuffed by scoring just one run in each game. The Padres are now 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West and they really could use a win and not get too far back in the standing as the All Star break looms. The Padres are 25-17 on the road which is the fourth best record in baseball behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros and the second best in the National League. Pitching has dominated overall and San Diego gives the ball to Yu Darvish who is having a very solid season and over his last four starts, he has a 1.61 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. The Padres are 20-7 in their last 27 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Dodgers have won three straight games after the Friday win behind another great performance from Tony Gonsolin who improved to 10-0 on the season. Los Angeles avoided a series sweep at Colorado with an 8-4 win on Wednesday to maintain its lead in the division which has now been extended. The Dodgers have been up and down over the last month as they are 15-14 over their last 29 games and they are back home where they are 22-11 but that includes a 7-7 record in their last 14 games here. Tyler Anderson had a great run of three straight starts by not allowing a run, covering 20 innings but has come back down to earth with a 4.83 ERA over his last four outings. The Dodgers are just 23-24 in their last 47 games when playing against a teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that are hitting .250 or less going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 27-13 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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06-30-22 | Yankees v. Astros +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Game of the Week. The Yankees are coming off a home sweep over Oakland following a series split against Houston and hit the road to face the Astros in a one-game series that is a makeup from the early season lockout. What can you say about New York other than it has been one of the best all around teams in recent years through this many games. They are 10-6 on the road against teams with a winning record. Luis Severino has very similar numbers to those of Garcia and the Yankees have lost four of his last six starts, accounting for 20 percent of the total New York losses on the entire season, and the two wins came against the Tigers and Cubs at home which are a combined 58-91. The Astros are coming off a two-game sweep against the Mets on the road by a combined 11-1 score and they are back home where they are 20-11. Those 31 games are 12 games fewer than what they have played on the road so the schedule has been tough yet they have flourished. Houston is 18-9 over its last 27 games and 35-16 over its last 51 games so it too has been playing at a high level since a relatively average start to the season. The Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill and he has been very consistent with a 3.68 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 13 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of those outings. Houston is 11-2 against the money line against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more rpg this season. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 63-19 (five) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Houston Astros |
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06-29-22 | White Sox +166 v. Angels | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox got their offense going as they exploded for 17 hits, eight for extra bases and scored 11 runs, the first time they have scored double-digit runs since June 15 and we like the momentum to carry forward in a tough pitching matchup. Chicago stopped a 1-5 run with the victory and it is now 19-17 on the road and is still hanging around in the American League Central, trailing the Twins by six games, despite a rough start after early season injuries. Michael Kopech left a game three starts ago with right knee discomfort after 13 pitches and two-thirds of an inning but he ended up being fine and has made two starts since and overall, he has a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 starts. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with a losing record. The Angels remain inconsistent as they are 3-5 over their last eight games and since the firing of Joe Madden, they are 9-12 and still well back in the American League West. Los Angeles belted three solo home runs on Tuesday and its 95 home runs are No. 6 in baseball which is where most of the production has come from but Kopech has allowed just four all season. Shohei Ohtani is coming off his best start of the season and has not given up a run over his last two starts while going 16 straight innings without allowing a run but is in a tough spot yet this number has been steamed after opening at -135. The Angels are 5-19 against starting pitchers who allows 0.5 or fewer home runs this season. Here, we play on road underdogs with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 after having lost five or six of their last seven games, playing a losing team. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (923) Chicago White Sox |
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06-28-22 | Padres -114 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Padres blew an early 5-2 lead against the Phillies on Sunday, allowing six unanswered runs as they dropped their final two games of their homestand. San Diego is a game and a half behind the Dodgers in the National League West and this is the start of a two-game series before the Padres head to Los Angeles for a four-game series. They are 24-14 on the road which is the second best record in baseball behind the Yankees and the best in the National League. Sean Manea has been solid with a 3.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with his numbers being even stronger on the road. San Diego is 7-0 in road games against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season. Arizona salvaged the series finale against Detroit on Sunday which snapped a five-game losing streak that includes three losses against the Padres by a combined score of 17-7. The Diamondbacks remain home where they are 18-21, one of just five teams in the National League with a losing home record. The Diamondbacks averaged just 2.2 rpg during the five-game skid and offense has been a problem all season as they are hitting only .216, the second lowest average in baseball as is their .213 average at home. Zac Gallen has been one of the bright spots in the Arizona rotation as he has a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 13 starts and while he had a solid start last time out against the Padres, he has lost four straight against San Diego going back to last season. Arizona is 19-65 in its last 84 games against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after three straight games where they had seven or less hits, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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06-27-22 | Twins v. Guardians +118 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Revenge Game of the Month. Cleveland was able to catch Minnesota in the American League Central last week but has since lost four straight games as the offense has done nothing, averaging only 2.0 rpg over this skid. The Guardians are now two games behind the Twins and get them at home to try and close the gap and may even overtake Minnesota. Cleveland has fallen to 16-13 at home and it has the numbers that should make that record better to go along with this matchup as it is hitting .258 against right-handed pitching while posting a 3.42 ERA which is fifth best in the American League and have a solid arm going Monday. Triston McKenzie has a 3.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP following a poor outing in his last start and while his career ERA on 4.23 in 42 starts, his 1.08 WHIP is outstanding. This season, he has a 2.76 ERA at home in three starts while having 10 road starts so the scheduling has been not in his favor and he is getting it done. The Guardians are 6-2 in their last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota has won two straight and three of its last four games but it been plodding along for a while now as since a six-game winning streak was ended on May 24, the Twins are 13-17 and have seen a big lead evaporate. Minnesota is 18-16 on the road and are an overpriced favorite here with a lot of that based on Sonny Gray who is having a great season but has been trending the wrong way in his duration as he has decreased his innings pitched over his last four games and has struggled against Cleveland with a 5.40 ERA in two starts. The Twins are 2-12 in their last 14 games following a win. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 299-173 (63.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) Cleveland Guardians |
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06-26-22 | Phillies v. Padres -148 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego had a 4-1 run snapped with a 4-2 loss on Saturday and the Padres remain one game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. They are 21-15 at home as the pitching has led the way with a 3.08 ERA that includes a 2.74 ERA from the bullpen. Overall, San Diego is No. 4 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. Yu Darvish has been on a great roll as he has a 0.82 ERA and 0.59 WHIP over his last three starts while lasting at least seven innings in all three games. He has been nasty at home with a 1.34 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in six starts with the Padres going 5-1 in those outings. San Diego is 13-3 against the money line in its last 16 games against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. Philadelphia moved back to two games over .500 with the Saturday victory to remain nine games behind the Mets in the National League East. The pitching has been below average and while the offense is ranked No. 9 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 10 in OPS, the Phillies took a bad blow as Bryce Harper fractured his thumb after getting hit by a pitch and could be out for a lengthy spell. Kyle Gibson has been throwing it well as he has put together three straight quality outings, putting up a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP covering 20.1 innings but two of those were at home and the one road game resulted in a 7-0 loss at Texas. He has a 3.21 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight home starts but a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in six road starts. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg and batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75. this situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) San Diego Padres |
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06-25-22 | Mariners v. Angels -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our American League West Game of the Month. The Angels have leveled out after a 2-18 run as they have gone 7-7 over their last 14 games which is certainly nothing great but they have a good matchup here. Los Angeles is three games under .500 at home which included a 1-10 run but both dies have been much better here than its 16-18 record on the road as it is hitting .249 while the starting staff has posted a 3.12 ERA. Patrick Sandoval is having a solid season with a 2.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, allowing three runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts. The Angels are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the American League West. Seattle has won four straight games after the series opening win on Friday and is now six games under .500 on the season, which has been a colossal disappointment as the projected offense has been a major downer. Seattle is ranked No. 24 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 23 in batting average and has scored two runs or less in eight of its last 12 games and the Mariners 5-0 run on the road is keeping this number down. Logan Gilbert has been on a great run as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts but the Mariners have gone just 4-3 in those games as the run support has been minimal, averaging 3.6 rpg. Seattle is 10-24 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season and the Mariners are 6-16 in their last 22 games following a win. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 60-40 (60 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-24-22 | Phillies v. Padres +108 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our National League Game of the Month. San Diego had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 6-2 loss on Thursday as Joe Musgrove suffered his first loss of the season after an 8-0 start. The Padres have fallen into second place in the National League West, a game behind the Dodgers and head into Game Two of this series with a 20-14 record at home. The offense has been up and down this season but the pitching remains consistent despite the Thursday result as they have a 3.14 ERA at home. MacKenkie Gore got off to a great start with a 1.50 ERA over his first nine starts but has been lit up over his last two outings, allowing 14 runs against the Rockies and we can expect a big bounce back here. The Padres are 18-6 in their last 24 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies snapped a three-game slide with the victory last night and the offense has struggled, averaging 2.6 rpg over the last four games. They are now a game over .500 on the road which is very respectable after losing 12 of 16 games that led to a manager change but are in a contrarian situation tonight. Aaron Nola is a big name pitcher who was off to an average start but has posted a 0.78 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts which is the main reason for the Phillies being road favorites on Friday. The Phillies are 5-16 in their last 21 games against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record. Here, we play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who allowed seven or more runs last outing. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) San Diego Padres |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The two best and hottest American League teams square off in New York for a four-game series. The Yankees had another come-from-behind win on Wednesday as they trailed Tampa Bay 4-1 going into the sixth inning and then scored four unanswered runs to take home the 5-4 victory. This team is scary good on both sides as they are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings and No. 2 in runs scored per nine innings and while they have a tough matchup here, the price is right. Jameson Taillon has had only one poor outing this season as he brings in a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and he has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his 13 outings. The Yankees are 17-4 against the money line against American League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better this season. Houston has won three straight games and six of its last seven and like the Yankees, it has pulled away in its division as it has a 10-game lead over Texas in the American League West. The Astros are 23-14 on the road and all of the numbers are pretty similar except for the offense which is ranked No. 17 in runs scored per nine innings. Framber Valdez is also having a sensational season with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 13 starts and while his numbers are even better on the road, six of his seven games have come against teams with a losing record with his worst start coming against the only winning in a loss at Toronto. The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight games as an underdog. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-171 (63.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) New York Yankees |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our American League Central Game of the Month. Cleveland is coming off an 11-inning win over Minnesota on Tuesday and the Guardians has made it move in the American League Central. They have won two straight, seven of their last eight, 10 of their last 12 and 16 of their last 20. Cleveland now sits in first place in the division, percentage points ahead of the Twins and can take over sole possession for the first time since April 23 when it has a half-game lead over Minnesota. The Guardians are ranked in the top eight in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS and send Triston McKenzie to the mound and he is having a solid season with a 2.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 starts and one relief outing. His numbers are equally as good on the road but Cleveland is just 4-4 in his eight road starts. Minnesota has lost two straight and has been below average over the last month as it has gone 11-15 over its last 26 games. The Twins are still 20-15 at home where they are hitting .253 while posting a 3.66 ERA and while they have been plodding along, they have avoided big losing streaks which has kept them afloat and the Twins are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss. The rotation has been led by an unlikely starter who is making a resurgence as Sonny Gray is off to one of the best starts in his career as he has made only eight starts after an early stint on the IL and he has a 2.09 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and he has allowed two runs or less in every start. Over his last three outings, he has a 0.50 ERA and 0.56 WHIP while posting a 17:1 K:BB ratio. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-171 (63.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Minnesota Twins |
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06-21-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Washington snapped an eight-game winning streak with a home win over the Phillies on Sunday. That concluded an 11-game homestand for the rebuilding Nationals as they hit the road where they are 6-15 over their last 21 away games where they are 12-20 overall. Washington has the worst pitching in baseball and it is ranked No. 30 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS while having a 5.98 ERA in its 32 road games. Erick Fedde has been part of the problem as he has a 4.71 ERA in six road starts. He has hit six innings only twice in 13 overall starts and that is bad news for a bullpen that has a 6.18 ERA on the highway. Baltimore is another team that is playing well as it has gone 6-3 over its last nine games following a series win over Tampa Bay to open this short five-game homestand. The Orioles are a game over .500 at home compared to having a 13-22 record on the road and one big factor has been the bullpen where they 2.34 ERA, one of the best in baseball. Jordan Lyles has been below average this season with a 5.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 13 starts but his damage has come away from home as his home/road splits are some of the biggest. He has a 6.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in eight road starts compared to a 2.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five home starts to go along with a 26:8 K:BB ratio. Here, we play om American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season after allowing two runs or less. This situation is 114-73 (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (926) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-19-22 | Padres -130 v. Rockies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Padres have dropped the first two games of this series following a Saturday loss where they allowed the winning home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Padres have won 11 of 16 games and are off to the best start in franchise history and while the nine-year drought of being in first place this late in a season was short-lived, they are just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The pitching has been solid as it is ranked No. 4 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS. Blake Snell has allowed three runs or less in four of five starts and will be looking for his first win. San Diego is 15-5 against the money line in its last 20 road games when playing against a team with a losing record. Colorado was on a three-game slide but the offense has come alive with 15 runs scored in the two games after averaging 3.1 rpg in its previous 10 games. The Rockies are eight games under .500 overall and are 1-7 in their last eight games following consecutive wins with the offense averaging just 2.8 rpg in those seven losses. Pitching has been the biggest downfall as Colorado is ranked No. 29 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS and Antonio Senzatela has played a part with his 4.79 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The Rockies are 11-27 in their last 38 games as an underdog. Here, we play on National League road teams hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. This situation is 94-49 (65.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) San Diego Padres |
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06-18-22 | Braves -160 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The Braves had their 14-game winning streak snapped with a 1-0 loss on Friday afternoon. The Atlanta offense was held in check for the first time during this stretch as it had not scored fewer than three runs while averaging 7.2 rpg in those 14 games. The Braves got off to a slow start this season but has narrowed the gap to 5.5 games behind the Mets in the National League East with a great chance to start another streak over the weekend before hosting the Giants and Dodgers next week. Kyle Wright looks to keep the solid string of pitching going and he brings in a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP including a 2.13 ERA over his last six outings. Atlanta is 34-11 against the money line in its last 35 games as a road favorite of -125 or more. Chicago snapped a 10-game losing streak with the victory but the lethargic offense still managed only one run and the Cubs are averaging a mere 2.8 rpg over their last 11 games. Chicago is 12-24 at home which is the third worst home record in baseball behind Washington and Oakland and while the offense has had little success, the pitching has been just as bad with the exception of a solid effort from Keegan Thompson yesterday as the cubs allowed 9.0 rpg during the losing skid. Justin Steele has been solid of late but he catches the wrong offense at the wrong time. The Cubs are 1-10 against the money line in their last 11 home games against a National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. Here, we play on National League road teams hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 94-47 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +104 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Yankees keep rolling along as they have won seven straight games to increase their lead to 10 games over Toronto and 12 games over Tampa Bay following the three-game sweep of the Rays. New York improved to 29-7 at home where it has played nine more games than on the road and while it is nine-games over .500 on the highway, the numbers drop. Pitching has led the way as the Yankees are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. Jordan Mongomery has been very good with a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP but New York is just 6-6 in his 12 starts, accounting for over a third of its losses on the season. Toronto is coming off a disappointing split with the Orioles culminated by a 10-2 loss on Thursday as Kevin Gausman got lit up in his worst outing of the season. The Blue Jays are 20-12 at home which is third best record at home in all of baseball so they have an opportunity and this is a big series for Toronto as it can cut into this lead and needs to avoid falling back further in the standings and at the very least, stay in first place in the current Wild Card standings. Ross Stripling is off to a solid start as he has a 3.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 games which includes a 2.81 ERA in seven starts. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-169 (63.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-16-22 | Angels -115 v. Mariners | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The managerial change for Los Angeles has not done much as it is 2-5 in the seven games since Joe Maddon was fired but to their credit, the recent schedule has been very tough. During their 2-18 run, they have played just two teams with a losing record and that was just one game against the Rangers and three against the Phillies when they got hot after Joe Girardi got let go as the other 16 games have come against the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Dodgers. The offense has dipped while the pitching has remained steady and one of those parts has been Shohei Ohtani. He has a 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the season and over his last eight starts, he has allowed two runs or less in six of those and the two outliers came against the Yankees and Blue Jays. Seattle dropped its series with the Twins after getting shutout 5-0 on Wednesday which was its second series loss on this homestand that concludes with a five-game series against the Angels. The Mariners are a game over .500 at home but have struggled on both sides, especially the starting pitching that has posted a 4.75 ERA and a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA. The Angels bats have cooled down considerably but the pitching they have faced has been off the charts and can definitely get to George Kirby who has been inconsistent in his seven starts and he has allowed seven home runs in his last five outings. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. this situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB American League East Game of the Month. This is a big early season series in the American League East and while Tampa Bay is 10 games back, they can cut into the lead but are already off a loss. The Rays are a game over .500 on the road and while the pitching has been good, the offense has struggled with a .233 average while averaging only 4.5 runs per nine innings. Shane McClanahan has flown under the radar with a 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 12 starts and Tampa Bay has won his last seven starts which is keeping this number down and while he pitched well in a 4-2 win last month against New York, that was at home where his last five starts have taken place and nine of 12 overall. The Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. New York is 27-7 at home and has easily gained control of the entire American League with a 45-16 record. While the offense is scary from pretty much top to bottom, the pitching has really dominated as the Yankees are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS. Nestor Cortes was humming along with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first 12 starts but is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed four runs, including a pair of home runs, on seven hits in just 4.1 innings. He dominated Tampa Bay last month in an eight inning gem. The Yankees are 17-5 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 63-22 (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) New York Yankees |
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06-14-22 | Guardians v. Rockies +152 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. The Rockies are back home following a successful 4-3 roadtrip in San Francisco and San Diego and they bring in a 16-16 record at Coors Field. Colorado is seven games under .500 no thanks to its horrible 11-18 record on the road and heading back home, they average 5.8 rpg while hitting .271 which overall is the best home production in baseball. Antonio Senzatela takes the hill for the Rockies and while he has struggled throughout the season, he has actually pitched better at home with a 3.76 ERA compared to a 6.75 ERA on the road. Colorado is 17-7 against the money line in its last 24 home games after allowing two runs or less. Cleveland is playing its best baseball of the season as it has won 10 of its last 13 games and is now two games over .500 on the season. The Guardians trail the Twins by three games in the American League Central thanks to strong offense and pitching but they have not been nearly as good on the road as they are four games under .500. the numbers go down considerably on the highway and while the offense could get a Coor Field boost here, the pitching could be in trouble despite the ace taking the hill. Shane Bieber has been excellent this season with a 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and while he has been even more solid on the road, that is negated with him pitching at Coors Field. The Guardians are 5-17 in their last 22 games against National League West teams. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.65 or worse on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Colorado Rockies |
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06-13-22 | Padres v. Cubs +125 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Cubs have to be happy to return home following a three-game sweep at the Yankees, getting outscored 28-5 in the process, which was their sixth straight loss and dropping them to 23-36 on the season. Home has not been kind to Chicago as it is 11-20 at Wrigley Field this season which is surprising considering it is actually outscoring opponents here with part of the reason going 4-8 in one-run games and a lot of the wins coming by huge amounts. The offense has been a little above average which obviously was not on display in New York but the Cubs are averaging 4.8 runs per nine innings at home which includes 5.1 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching. Yu Darvish has been adequate but the success has come at pitcher-friendly Petco Park as he has a 5.82 ERA in six road starts. San Diego was on a 7-1 run prior to losing the final two games at home against the Rockies and it was unable to take advantage of the Dodgers getting swept against the Giants and a chance to take over first place in the National League West. The Padres are 20-11 on the road and while the pitching has led the way, this is not the matchup for that to continue. The offense has been a big disappointment as they are ranked No. 16 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 22 in batting average. They will face Justin Steele whose overall numbers are bad but the road has been the problem and he brings in a 3.69 ERA in seven home starts while allowing only one home run in those games. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 60-29 (67.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Chicago Cubs |
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06-12-22 | Dodgers -125 v. Giants | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Dodgers came into Saturday with the possibility of falling out of first place in the National League West as they have been down of late with a 4-8 record over their last 12 games with the Padres right on their heels. They will be out to avoid the sweep as the offense, which is the best in baseball in runs scored per nine innings, has been handcuffed in the first two games by scoring just four runs total. The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the hill and he has been very strong with a 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 11 starts and this has been a great situation for him and the Dodgers which are 17-3 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is hanging around in the division as well as the first two wins in this series has pulled it to within 4.5 games of Los Angeles. The Giants have used a strong offense to hang around as they are ranked No. 3 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 9 in OPS but have a tough matchup here. On the other side, the matchup could be even more tough as the pitching has been well below average as they are No. 20 in runs allowed per nine innings and No. 25 in batting average allowed. Carlos Rodon has been good but not great with a 3.51 ERA and has allowed four home runs in his last five games. The Giants are 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with an on-base percentage of .350 or worse and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better. This situation is 225-97 (69.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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06-11-22 | Mets v. Angels +122 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Week. The Angels snapped their 14-game losing streak with a win over the Red Sox on Thursday but it was short-lived as they opened their series against the Mets with a 7-3 loss on Friday. The longer run of 4-19 over its last 23 games has put Los Angeles nine games behind the Astros in the American League West with a big hill to climb. Friday was the seventh time over the last 11 games that it has scored three runs or less and that once potent offense has fallen to No. 16 in both runs scored per nine innings and batting average and No. 14 in OPS. Michael Lorenzen is coming off one of his worst outings as he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings while walking a season-high five batters but he has allowed three runs or less in six of his nine starts. The Angels are 5-2 in their last seven Interleague home games. The Mets snapped a two-game slide with the win and are now 4-4 on this current roadtrip. The average New York run has led to the lead dwindle in the National League East as it is 6.5 games in front of the Braves which have won nine straight games. The offense remains one of the best as they are ranked No. 2 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 1 in batting average so it will be another test for the Angels. Carlos Carrasco has been a great addition to this starting staff and he is coming off arguably his best start of the season, allowing two runs in seven innings while striking out 10 and walking none. The Mets are 4-9 in their last 13 Interleague road games. Here, we play on American League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season, and coming off an outing where he walked five or more hitters. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (932) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-10-22 | Rays v. Twins +102 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our American League Game of the Month. Minnesota is thankful the Yankees have finally left town as the Twins lost two of three, allowing 7.3 rpg in the series and last night they gave up 10 runs in a 10-7 loss despite the offense lighting up Gerit Cole for five home runs. The opponent does not get much easier this weekend but they will be facing an offense not even close to the same firepower. Minnesota has lost six of its last nine games and has seen its lead in the American League Central shrink to three games over the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins have improved on offense, averaging 6.5 rpg over their last six games and overall, they are No. 5 in baseball with a .251 average. Minnesota is 18-13 at home with the pitching leading the way with a 3.54 ERA despite a couple of recent hiccups. The Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a sweep over St. Louis which came after a series loss against the White Sox and it hits the road where it has yet to be tested. The Rays do have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball as they are ranked No. 5 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. The offense has been the issue as Tampa Bay is No. 21 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 24 in both batting average and OPS and its numbers drop on the road where it is 13-10 with all 13 of those wins coming against teams with a losing record. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 58-17 (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (972) Minnesota Twins |
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06-09-22 | Red Sox v. Angels -114 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This has been one of the biggest contender tailspins we have seen in quite some time as the Angels have lost 14 straight games and are on a longer-term 3-18 run which has knocked them from first place in the American League West to now 9.5 games behind the Astros. Last night was the second 1-0 loss in three days for Los Angeles sixth time over the last nine games that it has scored one run or less and that once potent offense has fallen to No. 16 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 17 in batting average. Shohei Ohtani is coming off a pair of poor outings and will look to shut down the Red Sox whose own offense has not been great and he brings in a 3.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four home starts. The Angels are 7-2 in their last nine games after losing the first three games of a series. Boston has won seven straight games and its pitching has led the way as it has allowed two runs or less in seven of its last eight games. The Red Sox are now three games over .500 and four games over .500 on the road and clearly has the momentum as they turn to Nick Pivetta who has been one of the top starters over the past month, posting a 1.32 ERA over his last six starts with Boston winning the last five. He has benefitted from the offense behind him that has averaged 9.6 rpg over those five games which has taken a lot of the pressure off. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 61-22 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +120 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We lost with the Brewers last night as they took a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning but gave up two solo home runs and went on to lose 3-2. Milwaukee has lost four straight games and six of its last seven but still sits nine games over .500 and their lead in the National League Central remains a half-game over the Cardinals. The Brewers are 15-10 at home and outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs per game and are catching another great line here. Adrian Houser has been outstanding at home with a 1.95 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts, four of which he has allowed one or no runs. The Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 home games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has won five straight games including four straight since manager Joe Girardi was fired and they all of a sudden a clutch team. They rallied from a 5-0 deficit on Sunday and then the comeback last night as the offense has come to life but four of those recent wins have come at home and Philadelphia is 11-14 on the road and allowing 5.04 runs per nine innings. They are favored tonight based on the starting pitching matchup as well as the streaks but there is not much difference in the former. Aaron Nola is coming off a poor outing against the Giants and he has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The Phillies are 19-40 in their last 59 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg while hitting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -101 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Phillies are on a mini-roll with four straight wins, three since manager Joe Girardi was fired and they seem to be a completely different team. They rallied from a 5-0 deficit on Sunday to defeat the Angels and the offense has come to life but all four of those wins have come at home and Philadelphia hits the road where it is 10-14 and allowing 5.2 runs per game. It is still sitting four games under .500 and 11 games behind the Mets in the National League East. Philadelphia is 15-23 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Milwaukee has lost three straight games and five of its last six but still sits 10 games over .500 yet their lead in the National League Central has shrunk to a half-game over the Cardinals. The Brewers remain home where they are 15-9 and outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs per game and are catching a great line here which is based on the recent streaks and not the 14-game differential in the records. Milwaukee has to credit the pitching to the great start as it is top ten in all three major pitching categories. The Brewers are 44-22 against the money line in their last 66 games after a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg while hitting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres -112 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Following a six-game winning streak, the Mets lost the first two games against the Dodgers but bounced back to win the last two games to split the four-game set. New York is 37-19 including a solid 18-11 on the road and it has an 8.5-game lead in the National League East. The Mets have been solid on both sides, ranking in the top five in runs scored and runs allowed per nine innings with a differential of over one run per game. The Mets are 22-45 in their last 67 road games vs. a left-handed starter. San Diego is coming off an extra inning win over the Brewers to make it three straight wins to move to 33-21 and is just two games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres went just 3-4 on their recent roadtrip and are back home where they are 13-10 and look to continue the recent offensive surge after a rough run and a lot of the season struggled can be attributed to the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. who has yet to take the field. The Padres are 14-3 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 77-40 (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) San Diego Padres |
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06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -117 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay took the opener of this series on Friday to make it three straight wins to improve to 31-21 and it remains six games behind the Yankees in the American League East. The Rays are 18-11 at home where the pitching has dominated with a 2.87 ERA which is third best in baseball and they are getting from both ends at starters and relievers have posted a sub-3.00 ERA. The hitting has not been as consistent but Tampa Bay averages 4.26 runs per nine innings at home against right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay is 10-1 against the money line against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start this season. The White Sox underachieving season continues as they have now lost four straight games while going 2-7 over their last nine. In those nine games, they have allowed an average of 7.7 rpg and the ERA from the starting pitching on the road is 4.29. The offense came into the season as one of the best on paper but injuries have really hurt as they are still without Eloy Jiminez and now Tim Anderson is on the shelf with a groin injury. Chicago is 12-14 on the road and going back, the White Sox are 12-41 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start, playing on Saturday. This situation is 67-31 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Tampa Bay Rays |
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06-03-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle won in extra innings on Thursday to improve to 22-29 on the season and also went to 10-19 on the road, both of which are very bad. The Mariners have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball through the first two months and while their overall rankings are not horrible, they have a -15 scoring differential and have gone 13-21 in non-one run games. Seattle is 4-15 against the money line in road games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Texas fell to Tampa Bay yesterday to make it two straight losses following a 6-1 run and the Rangers are now 24-26. Both pitching and offense are ranked in the top half of baseball and the numbers increase slightly at home. The pitching has made the most strides as Texas has posted a 2.88 ERA over its last 10 games and faces an offense that has been inconsistent the entire season. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. This situation is 31-8 (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Texas Rangers |
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06-02-22 | Mariners v. Orioles -102 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After getting shutout in the series opener 10-0, the Orioles responded with a 9-2 win on Wednesday and have now won eight of their last 13 games. Baltimore is 13-12 at home where it is hitting .247 while averaging 4.56 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching which is above average across the league. The pitching has been even better here as the Orioles have a team ERA of 3.32 at Camden Yards that includes a 2.62 ERA from the bullpen. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Seattle fell to 21-29 on the season with the Wednesday loss and also dropped to 9-19 on the road. The Mariners have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball through the first two months and while their overall rankings are not horrible, they have a -16 scoring differential and have gone 13-21 in non-one run games. Seattle is 3-15 against the money line in road games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against a team with a very bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 41-13 (75.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-01-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Toronto took the series opener on Tuesday to make it six straight wins, the last four coming by one run. The Blue Jays have cut the lead in the American League East to 5.5 games with a 28-20 record and the offense, which got off to a slow start, has come around by averaging 6.8 rpg during this recent winning streak and that is a great upswing when facing a top level starter. The Blue Jays are 22-7 in their last 29 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago is plugging along at a game under .500 after having lost four of its last six games and the White Sox are now five games behind the Twins in the American League Central. They are a game over .500 on the road but are averaging just 3.6 runs per nine innings on the highway. The White Sox are 4-17 against the money line in their last 21 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 61-20 (75.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-31-22 | Royals v. Guardians -122 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Cleveland took the opener of this series on Monday with a 7-3 win and it remains up and down after a good start to the season. The Guardians are five games under .500 and have played a rugged schedule by playing 27 road games and just 16 home games where they are 8-8. Despite the record, they are in the top third in baseball in batting average and batting averaging allowed. Cleveland is 50-20 in its last 70 games against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175. Kansas City has lost two straight games and nine of its last 11 as it sits in last place in the American League Central at 16-31, 12 games behind the Twins. The Royals are 8-16 on the road and they bring in the third worst pitching staff in baseball as they are ranked No. 27 in runs allowed per nine innings while backing that up with rankings of No. 28 in batting average allowed and No. 27 in opposing OPS. Kansas City is 2-13 against the money line against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Cleveland Guardians |
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05-27-22 | Yankees v. Rays -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. The Yankees took the series opener on Thursday to increase their lead in the American League East to 5.5 games over Tampa Bay. New York has been solid on both sides as evidenced by its 32-13 record as it is ranked No. 6 offensively and No. 2 defensively in runs scored per nine innings with very similar OPS rankings as well. The Yankees are 15-6 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball based on winning percentage and as always, the public backs them and has cleaned up thus far but they have a tough matchup here. Jameson Taillon has been solid with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts and is being publicly backed here. Tampa Bay has won five of its previous seven games prior to Thursday and it can put a nice dent into the Yankees lead with a big weekend. The Rays are now 15-10 at home and the pitching has led the way with a 2.93 ERA that is equally solid from both the starting pitching and the bullpen. This has been a great situational spot as they are averaging 4.73 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching and going back, the Rays are 40-14 in their last 54 home games against right-handed starters. Jeffrey Springs will be making his fifth start of the season and each start has been progressively better as his pitch count has increased and he has pitched to a 1.32 ERA and 0.80 WHIP and his numbers are even better in two home outings. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 287-166 (63.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-26-22 | Red Sox v. White Sox -102 | Top | 16-7 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After a 16-3 bashing at the hands of the Red Sox on Tuesday, Chicago bounced back with a win on Wednesday to make it three wins in its last four games. The White Sox are back over .500 and they now trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central and can close out this series with a win in what is a good matchup. They are still a game under .500 at home as they have been hit hard with injuries as Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are both on the 10-day IL but there is still plenty in the lineup that can get to Michael Wacha who will likely have a limited pitch count once again. The White Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Boston had its six-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and the Red Sox remain in fourth place in the American League East, trailing the Yankees by 10.5 games. They are three games under .500 overall and three games under .500 on the road where the offense has struggled with a .210 average against left-handed pitching. Dallas Keuchel has struggled overall but his damage has come on the road with two awful starts against the Yankees and Guardians but brings in a 3.32 ERA in four home starts. The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and after scoring one run or less going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 6.20 or worse. This situation is 50-23 (68.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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05-24-22 | Red Sox v. White Sox -158 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Both Chicago and Boston are coming off a day off on Monday and both come in with some momentum. Following a double-header sweep on Sunday over the Yankees, the White Sox are back over .500 and they now trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central. They are a game under .500 at home with a 9-10 record with six of those losses coming against winning teams with the p[itching allowing a whopping 8.3 rpg but now they face a losing team in a good pitching matchup. Dylan Cease has gotten off to a great start as he is 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through eight starts and he has allowed two runs or less in six of those. The White Sox are 20-4 in his last 24 starts against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record. Boston comes in riding a five-game winning streak to move to 19-22 overall and it has moved out of last place in the American League East but the Red Sox still trail the Yankees by 9.5 games. They improved to 10-10 at home but are 9-12 on the road where they are averaging just 4.08 runs per nine innings. Nick Pivetta is coming off a complete game win over the Astros and has tossed three straight quality outings with the lone loss coming against the White Sox in this same pitching matchup. The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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05-23-22 | Phillies v. Braves +118 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our N.L. East Game of the Month. Philadelphia avoided a sweep at home against the Dodgers as it won on Sunday 4-3 with a two-out, walk-off win in the tenth inning thanks to an error by Max Muncy that would have ended the game. The Phillies are still in a rut as they have lost five of their last seven games and are now 19-22 overall which is good for a tie with Atlanta for second place in the National League East, eight games behind the Mets. The offense has been producing well this season but they have struggled of late, averaging only 2.3 rpg during this recent seven-game stretch. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies and while he has been solid of late, he has a 10.80 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in two road starts. The Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Braves come into the new week with the identical record as it matches the Phillies as the most underachieving team in the division and possibly the entire National League. Atlanta is coming off a series win against Miami over the weekend and have been average by going 7-6 over their last 13 games with the offense remaining inconsistent with a chance to succeed on Monday. Over the past two weeks, the Braves starting rotation has been one of the best in baseball as they are ranked second in FIP and fifth in K/9 rate. Tucker Davidson will be making his second start of the season after allowing no runs on three hits in five innings against the Brewers. The Braves are 37-14 in their last 51 games following a loss. 10* (958) Atlanta Braves |
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05-22-22 | Padres v. Giants -131 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego has won three straight games and five of its last six to move to 26-14 on the season which puts them a game and a half behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres have killed it on the road as they are 16-8 and those 16 victories are the most in baseball and they have done it with pitching to the tune of a 3.72 ERA but do face a potent Giants offense that has scored six runs or more in eight of their last 11 games. MacKenzie Gore has been solid in his first six games with a 2.17 ERA but this will be the toughest offense he has had to face. The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. San Francisco has dropped three straight games and five of its last seven to tumble into third place in the division with a 22-17 record, five games behind Los Angeles. The Giants are 11-9 at home and turn to Alex Cobb who has also pitched very well as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts and has a great K:BB ratio of 35:4. San Diego is ranked No. 23 in batting average and No. 21 in OPS and has another tough challenge here after scoring three runs or less in five of its last six games. The Giants are 54-21 in their last 75 games as a favorite. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 31-10 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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05-21-22 | Mariners +142 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
05-20-22 | Tigers v. Guardians -102 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Cleveland has dropped three straight games including a two-game sweep against the lowly Reds with a rainout in-between and the schedule remains easy so the Gaurdians need to turn things around this weekend. They are three-games under. 500 and they trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central. Their pitching has been average but the offense remains strong, recent run notwithstanding, as they are ranked No. 7 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 10 in batting average. Cleveland is 11-3 against the money line against teams whose hitters draw three walks or fewer per game this season. Detroit was off on Thursday following a pair of losses at Tampa Bay where the Tigers managed only one run in each game. They are in last place in the division at 13-25 which is the worst record in the American League. Detroit is 5-12 on the road where the offense has been awful, especially against right-handed pitching as it is hitting just .193 while averaging a mere 1.95 runs per nine innings. This number is low due to Aaron Civale being on the hill for Cleveland and his 9.85 ERA but he has struggled against top offenses including the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees. Detroit is 3-16 against the money line after scoring two runs or less this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season, after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 43-13 (76.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Cleveland Guardians |
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