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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-30-17 | Dodgers v. Padres +197 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Dodgers are coming off a home-and-home series split against the Angels but remain 2.5 games ahead of Arizona in the National League West as they continue on the road for a three-game set in San Diego. They are three games over .500 on the road this season which is very solid compared to a lot of other teams but a team that is only three games over .500 should not be 2-1 favorites on the highway. The Padres have the third worst record in the National League but that has to do with their 12-26 road record as they are actually a winning team at home. They have won both series on this current homestand and going back, San Diego has won seven of its last nine home games. Alex Wood has been great over the last two months as he has allowed more than three runs only once and the Dodgers have won his last eight starts over this stretch. Only half of those have been quality performances however as he has benefitted from a ton of run support and that is not always going to come through. Also, six of those came at home and going back, the Dodgers are 1-6 in his last seven road starts against teams with a losing record. Since coming to Los Angeles in 2015, Wood has been a road favorite of -160 or more five times and the Dodgers are 1-4 in those games. Clayton Richard is coming off a bad start against Detroit but prior to that, he had allowed three runs or less in five of his previous six starts. The Padres are 5-2 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (964) San Diego Padres |
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06-30-17 | Yankees +159 v. Astros | Top | 13-4 | Win | 159 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
We played against the Yankees last night as they lost for the 12th time in 16 games and now trail Boston by a game in the American League East. They were favored in all four games in Chicago, two by -150 or more, and now they are underdogs by that same amount and it is a big adjustment in a span of a day. Despite the recent struggles, the Yankees are 22-8 in their last 30 games against teams with a winning record. Houston is by far the best team in the American League and it is coming off a pair of wins over Oakland to open this six-game homestand. The Astros have done all of their damage on the road however as they are 29-9 which is by far the best road record in all of baseball. They have been solid at home as well but have nearly twice as many losses here than on the highway and have gone 8-18 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record. Lance McCullers takes the hill for Houston and he has been unbeatable, literally. He has yet to lose at home and the Astros are 6-0 in his six home starts but none of those games have come against teams that are over .500. The Yankees are hitting .275 on the season against righties including .272 on the road. New York counters with Michael Pineda who has been solid all season with the exception of a couple bad starts. He has allowed four runs or more four times, including his last outing, but has bounced back with three gems in the first three, posting a 0.89 ERA in the process. 10* (971) New York Yankees |
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06-29-17 | Yankees v. White Sox +127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 127 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The Yankees moved back into first place in the American League East with their win last night coupled with the Red Sox loss to the Twins. It was a rare victory as it has not been a good two weeks as New York is 4-11 over its last 15 games and has lost four straight games following a victory. The offense erupted for 12 runs last night and the pitching held strong which has not been the case of late as the Yankees have allowed four runs or more 12 times over this 15-game stretch. Chicago has been on a bad run as well as it has lost eight of its last 10 games but is still a respectable 16-17 at home after a 2-5 start. The White Sox are catching an excellent number at home in a decent pitching matchup and going back, they are 4-0 in their last four games during Game Four of a series. New York sends Luis Cessa to the hill and he has been pretty average through two starts and a relief appearance, going 0-2 with a 6.57 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is basically a reliever and he is not expected to get stretched out and that is not good for New York as its bullpen has posted a 6.612 ERA over its last 10 games. James Shields got off to a good start this season through three starts with a 1.62 ERA but landed on the disabled list with a lat injury. He came back after two months and was an out away from a quality outing against Toronto but put up a dud against Oakland last time out. Expect a solid bounce back tonight and additionally, the Yankees are 0-5 in their last five road games against right-handed starters. 10* (922) Chicago White Sox |
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06-29-17 | Twins +185 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The Twins won for us last night and we will back them again at a great price as they look to split this four-game series. They remain a half-game behind Cleveland in the American League Central and their 24th win on the road Wednesday matched the Indians for the second most in the American League. Minnesota has won seven of its last nine games against teams with a winning record while its +11.9 units won as an underdog is the nest in baseball. The Red Sox fell back into a first place tie with the Yankees in the American League East and as mentioned yesterday, it has been a very average run for Boston as it is now 11-10 over its last 21 games and going back further, it is 16-14 over its last 30 games with eight of those losses coming as -150 or higher favorites. David Price is making his seventh start of the season and it has been a roller coaster as he has a 4.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP through six starts. He has been pretty average since coming to Boston last season and has lost -6.55 units overall yet is still overpriced. Kyle Gibson counters for Minnesota and while his numbers look horrible, he has much better of late. He posted one bad outing against Seattle three starts back but in his other five starts since May 28, he has posted a 2.93 ERA including a 2.20 ERA in three road starts. The Twins are 5-0 in his last five road starts and he comes in with a 0.60 ERA and 0.33 WHIP in two career Fenway Park starts. We catch another great underdog price with Minnesota tonight. 10* (919) Minnesota Twins |
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06-28-17 | Twins +155 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 155 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
After a clean sweep of the Indians to take over the lead in the American League Central, the Twins have lost the first two games of this series to fall back into second place. They look to salvage a game Wednesday to avoid the sweep and their 23-11 road record says they are more than capable as their +17.5 units are second best in baseball. Boston has taken over the lead in the American League East over the slumping Yankees despite an average 11-9 record over its last 20 games. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last four games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The hand the ball to Adalberto Mejia and we won with him in his last start in a similar situation. After a slow start, he was sent back to the Minors but has been much better since his recent callup with the exception of just one bad start against Seattle. He has posted a 3.03 ERA in his other six starts while allowing three runs or less in all of those. Rick Porcello is having a very poor post-Cy Young season as he has been all over the place. He has a 5.00 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 16 starts and is coming off just his fourth win of the season. He has allowed four runs or more in five of his last eight starts and the Red Sox are 0-6 in his last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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06-28-17 | Cubs +154 v. Nationals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Cubs took the opener of this series on Monday but lost Game Two last night to remain a game behind the Brewers in the National League Central. It has been a very average first half for Chicago as the World Series letdown is in full effect but any good news is the fact that the Cubs have been able to avoid long losing streaks as they have won seven straight games following a loss while going 5-0 in their last five games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game, averaging 8.4 rpg in the process. Washington is 8.5 games ahead of Atlanta in the National League East despite a very poor run as it has gone just 8-10 over its last 18 games. The Nationals have scored six runs or more in all six of those wins while going 2-8 when scoring fewer than that as we are in place to see the latter tonight. John Lackey is coming off a pair of quality starts after a rough five-game stretch and overall he has still been pretty solid. He tossed a pair of gems against Washington last season and the Cubs are 5-1 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Stephen Strasburg has had a solid season but has been roughed up in two of his last three starts, both of which have come at home. He has been dominant during the day but has a 4.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in seven nighttime starts. 10* (953) Chicago Cubs |
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06-27-17 | Phillies +167 v. Mariners | Top | 8-2 | Win | 167 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Seattle opened its homestand with five consecutive victories but dropped the final two games over the weekend against Houston to fall back to .500 on the season. The Mariners now host the Phillies in a two-game set before heading back out on the road and the public is all over them tonight and will be so again tomorrow with Felix Hernandez on the hill. Seattle has been solid at home this season but has gone 5-11 in its last 16 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The Phillies poor run continued yesterday with a 6-1 loss at Arizona as they fell to 27 games under .500. The road has been the real struggle but not really as bad as the record indicated. Overall, Philadelphia is 10-19 in one-run games including 12 of those coming on the highway so we are catching value with a team whose record is very skewed. Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phillies and he has been pretty efficient this season with a 4.32 ERA but a much better 1.29 WHIP through 10 starts. Those numbers improve on the road where he has allowed three runs or less in four of six starts including giving up one run three times. James Paxton got off to a blistering start where he allowed one run or less in six of seven starts but over his last four starts, he has posted an 8.50 ERA and the Mariners are 5-14 in his last 19 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (929) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-27-17 | Rangers +152 v. Indians | Top | 2-1 | Win | 152 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Texas is coming off a brutal loss last night as it blew a 9-2 lead while getting outscored 13-0 to end the game. The Rangers were coming off a series win over the Yankees and despite the loss last night, they are still 8-3 over their last 11 road games with the last seven of those coming against division leaders. Additionally, the Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Indians had scored a total of two runs over 31 innings before erupting for those 13 runs over the final four innings last night so that was a much needed for the offense. The home field has been problematic for Cleveland however as it is just 16-20 at Progressive Field this season and that was certainly proven in the Minnesota series. The Indians send Mike Clevinger to the hill and he has been a carbon copy of the whole team as he has pitched well on the road but struggled at home. He has a 5.51 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over four home outings including three starts, all of which resulted in Cleveland losses. It has not helped that he has received just 2.0 rpg of support from the offense. Texas turns to Tyson Ross who is coming off a brutal loss against Toronto after opening the season with a solid effort against Seattle where he was one out away from a quality start. Those games were at home where Globe Life Park is a hitters park so going out on the road is not a bad thing at all. 10* (919) Texas Rangers |
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06-26-17 | Angels +196 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 196 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
We played against the Dodgers yesterday and the Rockies imploded late as they were up 6-4 in the seventh but allowed eight runs over the last two innings to give the Dodgers their tenth straight win. We will go contrarian again tonight as this streak is not going to last forever and coming off a big series against the Rockies where they increased their lead in the National League West to 2.5 games provides a letdown opportunity. The Angels took two of three in Boston after taking two of three against the Yankees in New York as they have improved their play on the road. They are now a game over .500 and are right in the thick of the Wild Card race as they are just a game and a half out of the second spot. The Angels are 10-4 in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 18-7 in their last 25 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Rich Hill is the big chalk tonight and does not deserve to be as he has been below average in his nine starts, posting a 4.72 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He has yet to toss a quality outing and Los Angeles is only 5-4 in his games. We also go contrarian by backing Ricky Nolasco who has not won since April 27 with the Angels dropping his last 10 starts, another streak that will not last forever. He has been inconsistent for sure but has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 16 starts but he has been hurt by poor run support and the Angels offense has improved, averaging 6.0 rpg on this roadtrip. 10* (963) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-26-17 | Twins +183 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Minnesota continues to not get the credit it deserves. The Twins trailed the Indians by 2.5-games heading into their weekend series in Cleveland and they pulled off the road sweep to move back into first place in the American League Central. They remain solid on the road as their 23-9 record is second best in the American League and they have won six straight road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Twins are 13-4 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Boston lost two of three against the Angels and is on a pretty average run overall as it has gone 9-9 over its last 18 games but remains tied with the Yankees for first place in the American League East only because New York is in a horrible slump right now. Boston is a big favorite because of Chris Sale for obvious reasons. He has been great in his first season with the Red Sox as they have won 11 of his 15 starts thanks to his 2.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. This is not a good spot however as the Twins are hitting .296 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games and Sale has not fared against them as he has a 4.37 ERA in 17 starts, the highest ERA against any teams he has started at least five games against. Jose Berrios cruised through the Minors before having a rough opening season a year ago but he has bounced back great. Minnesota is 7-1 in his eight outings as he has posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and is hugely undervalued here. The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games against right-handed starters. 10* (959) Minnesota Twins |
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06-24-17 | Astros v. Mariners +155 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Seattle cooled off the red hot Astros with a 13-3 victory last night, halting the Houston four-game winning streak while staying red hot on its own. The Mariners are on a season-high six-game winning streak and are playing like the team many expected coming into the season. They are 18-8 over their last 26 games and while they are still 11.5 games behind Houston in the American League West, they are very much alive in the Wild Card picture. The Mariners are 23-8 in their last 31 when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Houston has been in cruise control for some time now but has been pretty average over the last few weeks as it is 8-9 over its last 17 games and despite the outstanding road record, the Astros are extremely overvalued here. The Astros are 1-4 in their last five games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Lance McCullers gets the ball for Houston as he is back from a stint on the disabled list with back issues which is never something you want to hear from a starting pitcher. The recent time off put a hold on a great start to the season but he has proven to be a bit inconsistent on the road. The Mariners hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio who is also off to a great start. He has a couple not-so-good outings on the road but he has been dominant at home, posting a 1.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in four starts at Safeco Field with Seattle going a perfect 4-0 in those games. 10* (978) Seattle Mariners |
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06-24-17 | Reds +147 v. Nationals | Top | 3-18 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The Reds dropped another tough one on Friday as they lost 6-5 to Washington in 10 innings which was their 11th loss in 12 games including their third loss in four games by just one run. that dropped Cincinnati to 5-12 in one-run games which is the second fewest one-run wins in baseball. The Reds have a 6.08 ERA from the starting pitching which is worst in all of baseball but they finally get a break today. Washington is 7-9 over its last 16 games but playing below average baseball has not hurt the Nationals as they remain nine games up in the weak National League East. Despite the win last night, the Nationals are still just 2-6 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing record. The break Cincinnati is getting today is the return of ace Homer Bailey who is making his season debut. Bailey was 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA in 2012 and 11-12 with a 3.49 ERA in 2013 before he began to have injury issues. He made three rehab starts, going 3-0 with a 1.08 ERA at three different levels, including a 5.2-inning performance for Triple-A Louisville on Monday. When healthy, he can be a very dominant pitcher and he owns two no-hitters, one in 2012 and the other in 2013. Joe Ross counters for Washington and he has been very inconsistent with a 5.98 ERA in nine starts. While four of those have been quality outings, he has allowed five runs or more in the other five starts. 10* (951) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-23-17 | Rockies +186 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Colorado was riding a six-game winning streak but lost the final two games of its series with the Diamondbacks and has fallen into a tie for second place in the National League West. The Rockies allowed 26 runs over those last two games so leaving Coors Field is a good thing and they hit the road possessing a 25-13 road record which is best in the National League. The Dodgers have won seven straight games and are 13-1 over their last 14 games. The public continues to ride them hard and their price keeps going up so being a 2-1 favorite over a comparable team is a bit much. Alex Wood is also part of the reason for the big number as he has won his last seven starts and he is a perfect 5-0 at home. The Dodgers have given him plenty of run support but that will not be easy to do tonight and going back, they are 3-9 in his last 12 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Meanwhile, the Rockies have won four straight games against left-handed starters. The Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland who is having a sensational rookie season. 10 of his 14 starts have been quality outings and in two starts against Los Angeles, he has allowed just two runs with the Rockies winning both of those games. The Dodgers are hitting just .244 against right-handed pitching this season 10* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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06-23-17 | Twins +165 v. Indians | Top | 5-0 | Win | 165 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Cleveland has taken over first place in the American League Central as it has won two straight games and is now 8-1 over its last nine games. Seven of those wins came during its most recent roadtrip but the Indians have struggled to get much going at home as they are just 15-17 on the season and the starting pitching has been to blame. The starters have a 4.96 ERA here which ranks near the bottom in baseball. Minnesota won its series against the White Sox although it was shutout yesterday 9-0 after a lengthy rain delay. The Twins are like the Indians as they have struggles at home yet are getting it done on the road where they are 20-9 which is the second best road record in the American League. They are 6-1 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record and hand the ball to Adalberto Mejia. After a slow start, he was sent back to the Minors but has been much better since his recent callup with the exception of just one bad start against Seattle. He has posted a 3.58 ERA in his other five starts and the Indians are 4-9 in their last 13 home games against left-handed starters. Cleveland counters with Trevor Bauer who is coming off his first quality outing in four June starts. Overall, he has a 5.54 ERA in 14 starts with the Indians going just 7-7 in those games while the Twins are 15-4 in their last 19 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (921) Minnesota Twins |
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06-22-17 | Giants +133 v. Braves | Top | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Giants are in the midst of a rough stretch after losing for the eighth time in nine games last night in Atlanta in extra innings following a Matt Kemp two-run walk-off home run. San Francisco is now 20 games under .500 after coming into the season as World Series contenders and they have fallen 20.5 games out of first place in the National League West which is now the biggest margin in all of baseball. San Francisco is also last in baseball in profit margin but the big reason is that they are now 14-26 as favorites but are in a better role tonight loaded with value. The Braves remain in second place in the National League East as the rebuilding season has been much better than expected. Atlanta has won four of its last five games but is still sitting two games under .500 at home and comes in with a 10-14 record as a favorite. Jaime Garcia gets the ball for Atlanta and he had a five-game quality start streak snapped in his last outing as he allowed six-runs in 5.2 innings against Miami but was bailed out with the offense that backed him with eight runs. Overall, the Braves have given him just 3.4 rpg of support at home which is a big reason he is winless in five starts and despite the recent struggles, the Giants are hitting .291 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Matt Cain has been all over the place this season and his main struggles have come during the day as he has posted a 7.12 ERA over five starts but that ERA drops to 3.96 in nine primetime starts. One of his best starts this season came against the Braves and he can duplicate that again here. 10* (959) San Francisco Giants |
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06-22-17 | Astros v. A's +130 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston has extended the best record in baseball by winning the first three games of this series and it goes for the sweep this afternoon in Oakland. While there are some teams in baseball that have had surprisingly good results on the road but the Astros have taken it to the next level as they are an incredible 26-8 on the highway including an 18-3 record over their last 21 games. That is the reason they are hefty road favorites despite a severe disadvantage in the starting pitching matchup. Oakland was coming off a four-game home sweep over the Yankees prior to this series and was 20-7 in its previous 27 home games so winning here has not been an issue. Solving Houston has obviously been the problem but this is the best pitching matchup over the first six meetings this season. Jesse Hahn gets the ball for Oakland and he is having a solid season as he has allowed three runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts and while Oakland is 0-6 in his six road starts, it is 4-1 in his five home outings with an average scoring differential of over 2.5 rpg. Going back, the A's are 4-0 in his last four home starts against teams with a winning record. The Astros counter with David Paulino who is coming off a quality start but has been barely average overall in his four starts. He has not lost (1-0) but that is because he has received 9.3 rpg of support and that changes today. 10* (968) Oakland A's |
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06-21-17 | Diamondbacks +140 v. Rockies | Top | 16-5 | Win | 140 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The Rockies won their sixth straight game last night to remain a half-game ahead of Los Angeles in the National League West. This includes a perfect 5-0 start to this current homestand and they have been on the fortunate side of some of these victories as four have come by two runs or less. The Rockies recorded their second straight come-from-behind win last night to make it seven straight home wins and we go against that tonight on a contrarian basis. Arizona had its seven-game winning streak snapped last night but remains just two games behind Colorado and looks to get it back tonight. The Diamondbacks are 11-1 in their last 12 games during Game Two of a series and coaching is a big reason for that. They send Taijuan Walker to the hill and he is coming off a great start after spending close to a month on the disabled list. He has allowed three runs or less in eight of his 10 starts this season including all six starts on the road and they have taken four of his last five road outings. Colorado counters with Jeff Hoffman who is off to a perfect start as he is 4-0 in five starts with Colorado winning all five of those. Three have come on the road however and his most recent came at home against the offensively inept Giants. In five career home starts, he has a 4.91 ERA and the Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. 10* (911) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-20-17 | Padres +185 v. Cubs | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Padres last night as San Diego led 2-1 going into the bottom of the seventh but allowed a home run and then gave up the go ahead run on a throwing error. That was the third loss by one-run through the first four games of this roadtrip and while the offense has been handcuffed the last two games, San Diego averaged 5.8 rpg over its previous eight games and has a chance to get it going again tonight. The Cubs remain a public favorite despite being just one game over .500 and going back, they are just 5-7 over their last 12 games while outscoring opponents by just 13 runs overall so they are once again overpriced tonight. Additionally, Chicago is 0-4 in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Mike Montgomery gets the ball for Chicago and he has been average through his first two starts since joining the rotation as he has posted a 4.00 ERA after putting up a 2.21 ERA in 18 relief appearances. The Padres are hitting .278 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games. San Diego counters with Jhoulys Chacin who is having a very strong season sans three starts. He had rough outings against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Mets but he has allowed three runs or less in each of his other 11 outings, posing a 2.79 ERA in those games. He has tossed three straight quality outings heading into tonight and San Diego has won three of his last four road starts. Going back, the Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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06-20-17 | Cardinals v. Phillies +148 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The Cardinals continue their roadtrip as they head to Philadelphia for a three-game series after dropping two of three in Baltimore over the weekend. Overall, St. Louis has lost five of its last six games and going back further, it has dropped 13 of its last 16 road games after what was a good start on the highway this season. The Cardinals are 7-21 in their last 28 games following an off day while going 2-9 in their last 11 games following a loss. The Phillies have been stuck in a funk that they cannot seem to get out of and an off day yesterday was huge as it was their first day off since June 1st. they have dropped 11 of 12 with half of those losses coming by one run and on the season, Philadelphia is 10-17 in one-run games so some luck does have to go their way eventually. The Phillies hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson who got off to a great start before a rough outing against the Cubs and he is coming off a poor start against Boston where he allowed six runs over five innings. It was the third time he has allowed six runs or more compared to allowing three runs or less in 10 of his other 11 starts so the good has outweighed the bad. Of the Phillies 13 home wins, five have come with Hellickson on the mound. The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 road games against right-handed starters. Mike Leake was outstanding through his first nine starts with a 1.91 ERA but has posted a 6.20 ERA over his last four starts. Going back, the Cardinals are 0-6 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-19-17 | Padres +208 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a 3-3 roadtrip and heads home for just three games before hitting the road once again for an 11-game roadtrip. Going back, the Cubs are just 4-7 over their last 11 games and are right at the .500 mark while outscoring opponents by just 12 runs overall so they are once again overpriced tonight. Additionally, the Cubs are 3-10 in their last 13 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. That game resulted in a 2-1 loss for the Padres yesterday as they were unable to solve Jimmy Nelson. They dropped two of three in Milwaukee over the weekend as the road continues to be a letdown but they are clearly getting value with the big number tonight and they are 4-1 in their last five games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Clayton Richard is coming off an excellent start against the Reds as he was a third of an inning away from a complete game and over his last five starts, he has posted a 3.41 ERA. Chicago turns to Jon Lester who is having a solid but far from dominating season. He has a 3.89 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 14 starts with the Cubs going just 7-7 in those games. After a great start with three straight quality outings to open the season, he has a 4.68 ERA over his last 11 starts and the Cubs are 2-6 in his last eight starts following a quality performance in his last start. The Padres are hitting .298 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching and certainly have a good opportunity to keep that going tonight. 10* (907) San Diego Padres |
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06-19-17 | Indians v. Orioles +144 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Cleveland had a great weekend as it went to Minnesota and swept the four-game series and was able to leapfrog the Twins in the American League Central to grab a two-game lead. Overall the Indians have won five straight games but were on a 4-8 run prior to that so while they are hot right now, it can go south quickly and the number sets up well for Baltimore tonight. Additionally, the Indians are 5-11 in their last 16 series openers. Baltimore took its series against St. Louis over the weekend by winning the last two games with the offense erupting for 23 runs. This was a much needed series win after coming off a dreadful 1-7 roadtrip and are now 8-4 over their last 12 home games while going 23-11 at home overall which is the second best home record in the American League. Cleveland is the road favorite based on the starting pitching as Corey Kluber takes the hill and he has been on a solid role since coming off the disabled list as he has posted a 2.37 ERA over three starts, all of which were quality outings. All three of those were at home however and he has struggled on the road with a 4.50 ERA over four starts. The Orioles are 61-27 in their last 88 home games against right-handed starters. Baltimore counters with Dylan Bundy who has been a little erratic but has posted only one really bad start where he allowed six runs over six innings at Detroit and he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his other 13 starts, 11 of which have been quality outings. He has a 2.38 ERA at home and the Orioles are 6-2 in his last eight home starts. 10* (912) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-18-17 | Giants +159 v. Rockies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
While the pitching was better yesterday for the Giants, it still was not good enough considering the bats went dead cold in a 5-1 loss in Colorado, the third straight to open this series and eighth straight overall defeat to the Rockies this season. This is part of the reason the Giants trail Colorado by an astounding 18.5 games as the records of the two teams are nearly the complete opposite at 45-26 and 26-44. The Giants are 9-4 in their last 13 games after losing the first three games of a series. The Rockies remain a game up on Arizona and Los Angeles and have been surprisingly one of the better road teams in baseball with a 25-13 record. They are a very respectable 20-13 at home but it is not a dominating record and despite the recent domination and contrast in records, they are overvalued today. Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for the Rockies and he is having a solid yet unspectacular season with a 4.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 14 starts with Colorado going 6-8 in those games. As is typical with a lot of Rockies pitchers past and present., he has struggled at Coors Field with a 7.03 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six starts. This is nothing new as he has a career ERA of 5.17 here. To no surprise, the Rockies are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts. San Francisco is hoping Ty Blach can bounce back from a pair of rough outings where he allowed 12 runs in 11.1 innings. Prior to that, he posted six quality performances in his first eight starts and had an ERA of 3.24 at the time. 10* (963) San Francisco Giants |
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06-18-17 | Mariners +180 v. Rangers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 180 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Rangers have opened this series with identical 10-4 victories and will be going for their fifth series sweep of the season. They still trail Houston by 11 game in the American League West so it is all about the Wild Card right now and Texas is just a half-game out of the second spot in the American League. This is a team that should not be laying moneyline numbers like this and going back, Texas is just 2-5 in its last seven home games. Seattle sits 2.5 games behind the Rangers so this would be a big victory to close the gap a little more. Christian Bergman takes the ball for the Mariners and he is in a solid bounce back spot together with excellent value on his side. He has been hit or miss this season but the majority falls into the former category. He allowed nine run on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings at Minnesota last time out and that was the second implosion by Bergman this season, joining his 10-run outing in Washington back in May. If you take those two starts out, he has allowed just seven earned runs over 34 innings for 1.85 ERA in his other six games including five starts this year. Yu Darvish is another reason the line is so big as he has been sensational with a 3.03 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 14 starts. His numbers at home are very similar but despite putting up excellent numbers, he has just six wins and Texas is only 8-6 in those games including a 4-4 record at home as he is receiving little run support. 10* (973) Seattle Mariners |
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06-17-17 | Dodgers v. Reds +147 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
We lost with the Reds last night as they were unable to get to Alex Wood but they are in great shape today to finally get that offense going in the right direction. Cincinnati has lost seven straight games as the bats have been non-existent, averaging just 3.0 rpg over this stretch and this is from a team that is in the top ten in baseball in runs scored so this is a baffling run. The Dodgers are now a game over .500 on the road following the win last night and overall they have won seven of their last eight games. Of those win, only one has been by more than two runs so they have been fortunate in pulling out close games. Asher Wojciechowski gets the ball for the Reds and this will be his fourth start of the season. His season debut in Toronto was not very good but his last two starts have been much better. In his last outing, he allowed four runs in five innings at Los Angeles but it was better than that as he allowed just six hits and no walks. Prior to that, he posted a quality outing against Cardinals at home and this will mark his second home start of the season. The Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu who has been all over the place this season. He has posted only two quality outings in his 10 starts and the long ball has been a real problem of late as he has allowed six home runs over his last four starts. He has a 4.62 ERA 1.54 WHIP on the road and going back, the Dodgers are 0-7 in his last seven road starts. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-17-17 | Nationals v. Mets +141 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The Nationals have won the first two games of this series in pretty easy fashion and the public is thinking it will happen again today but that should not be the case at all. Prior to these two games, Washington had lost five of its previous six games but the offense has turned things around by scoring 15 runs in the first two games of this series. Additionally, the Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven games during Game Three of a series. These final two games of this series are pretty big for New York as it cannot afford to lose much more ground in the National League East as the Mets now trail the Nationals by 10.5 games. After allowing four runs during a four-game winning streak, the Mets have allowed 33 runs over their last four games but that gets reversed today. Seth Lugo will be making his second start of the season after starting the year on the disabled list with a partially torn ligament in his elbow. He was extremely solid in his debut as he gave up just one run on six hits and two walks and struck out six over seven innings, using the same guile he had displayed last season when he went from unheralded prospect to key contributor. In nine career starts, he has not allowed more than three runs while allowing two runs or less seven times. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for Washington and he has been very solid with the exception of a couple of bad starts. He had a rough time last time out against Atlanta and in seven daytime starts, he is getting just 2.9 rpg of support. 10* (912) New York Mets |
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06-16-17 | Dodgers v. Reds +162 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
We played against Los Angeles yesterday in Cleveland as we felt the Dodgers were overpriced and the feeling is very similar again tonight. They are back to .500 on the road and have dropped 4.2 units in those games which shows how they have been overvalued on the highway. Los Angeles is hitting only .244 on the road which is fifth lowest in the National League. Cincinnati is certainly glad to be back home following a dreaded 0-6 roadtrip to fall to 10-21 on the road which is the fourth worst road record in baseball. The Reds are a much more respectable 19-15 cat home which includes a four-game winning streak to get them to where they are. The offense managed just 3.3 rpg on the recent roadtrip but are in good shape to bust out of that tonight. Alex Wood gets the ball for Los Angeles and while he has not lost in nine starts, only three of those have been quality outings. He has had the luxury of having five of his last six starts coming at home and the road has not been kind as the Dodgers are 0-6 in his last six road starts against teams with a losing record and they are 0-6 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Cincinnati counters with Tim Adleman who we have backed a few times already this season. He is having a very solid season as his 4.34 ERA does not show but his 1.21 WHIP does. After a pair of poor starts, he has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last four starts and the Reds have won his last four home starts. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-16-17 | Nationals v. Mets +146 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Washington took the opener of this series last night to increase its lead to 9.5 games in the National League East and many will be on the Nationals again tonight to make it a double-digit game lead but we are not one of those. They have been one of the top road teams in baseball are overvalued in this spot and going back, the Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Mets fell to 2-2 on this current homestand but have won five of their last seven games and are in good shape to bounce back as they have won their last four games following a loss and in all of those instances, the pitching has been dynamite. Additionally, the Mets are 4-0 in their last four when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. In his season debut and his first start since he had bone spurs removed in his elbow last fall, Steven Matz held the Braves, who average more than 4.5 rpg at SunTrust Park, to just a single run on five hits, walked two while striking out three in seven innings. Despite his long layoff, Matz showed impeccable command and proved how valuable he is to this staff even though it was just one start. In two career starts against the Nationals, he has a 1.80 ERA covering 15 innings. Max Scherzer is a big reason for this overpriced number and he has been dominant of late for sure but he has not gotten much run support this season and the Mets have giving him troubles. Since coming over from Detroit, Washington is just 4-5 in his nine starts against New York. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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06-15-17 | Red Sox v. Phillies +222 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 222 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
The Red Sox have won the first three games of this four-game home-and-home set, the first two of which came in extra innings and last night, thanks to a pair of Mookie Betts home runs. They come in tonight as a massive road favorite and it is certainly overpriced based on who they are sending to the mound. Boston has prospered in this situation on the season as it is a perfect 7-0 when priced at -200 or higher but all of those occurrences have come at home. The Phillies have had a horrible stretch since the end of April including losses in their last eight games. They have certainly played some bad baseball along the way but they have also been pretty unfortunate as well as they have been involved in a league-high 24 extra-inning games and have lost 15 of those, also a league -high. Chris Sale is the main reason Boston is laying such a big price and he obviously deserves it considering the season he is having. However, he has not been as good on the road as his ERA is over a run higher than it is at home and this is by far the biggest number he has put down on the highway. He has received 10.0 rpg over his last four starts and that production will not last. The Phillies counter with Nick Pivetta and he has been good enough to keep them in games. He was one of the organization's best minor-league pitchers the last two seasons and had a 1.41 ERA this year in five starts at AAA. This is just his second home starts of the season after five of his first six came on the road. 10* (920) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-15-17 | Dodgers v. Indians +118 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 118 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The Dodgers were able to get to Andrew Miller for four runs after the exit of Corey Kluber to blow open a 2-2 and pick up their sixth straight victory. They have won both games in Cleveland by two runs to move a game over .500 on the road and that record does not put them in a position as favorites in this pitching matchup. Cleveland has lost the first two games of this series and this is the fifth time since the start of May that it has dropped the first two games of a series. The Indians have not allowed it to get out of control however as they have won the previous four games following those back-to-back series opening losses and those victories have come by a combined score of 29-6. Cleveland hands the ball to Josh Tomlin who has been all over the place this season with six of his 12 starts being quality outings but the one thing he has done well is that he has limited baserunners and has put up a 1.35 WHIP. His number improve immensely at home including that ratio that goes down to 1.07 and Cleveland is 3-1 in his four daytime outings. Additionally, the Indians are 15-4 in his last 19 starts during game three of a series. Rich Hill continues to be overvalued despite not tossing a single quality outing in his 10 starts. He has not made it to the sixth inning all season and his control remains an issue as he has posted a 1.50 WHIP over his last four starts which includes issuing 16 walks over that stretch. 10* (918) Cleveland Indians |
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06-14-17 | Brewers +153 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-6 | Win | 153 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Milwaukee and St. Louis opened their four-game set with a doubleheader split on Tuesday and the Cardinals once again come in as the heavy favorite despite not being the better. St. Louis is now three games under .500 and because of the public love, it is the sixth least profitable team in baseball based on the overpriced numbers. The Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Milwaukee remains in first place in the National League Central by a game over Chicago. Going back, the Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. After missing the first part of the season, Matt Garza has been very strong since his return. He had a bad start against Toronto three starts back but in his other seven outings, he has posted a 2.75 ERA with four of those being quality outings. The Brewers are 5-1 in his last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game while the Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 games against right-handed starters. Mike Leake counters for St. Louis and he has shown signs of struggles after a spectacular start. He had a 1.91 ERA through his first nine starts but has put up a 5.30 ERA over his last three starts, none of which have been quality outings. Additionally, the Cardinals are 1-10 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (959) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-14-17 | Rangers +145 v. Astros | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Texas has opened this series with a pair of wins over Houston and is off to a 5-0 start on this current roadtrip. It has been a very streaky season for the Rangers and keeping this one going is more than feasible especially with another positive pitching matchup tonight. Going back, the Rangers are 6-0 in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Houston won 11 straight games in late May and early June but since then, it has not been playing well by going just 2-6 over its last eight games. The offense has been fine but the pitching has been a disaster as the starting rotation has been hit hard with injuries. Even the bullpen has been roughed up over this stretch. Houston turns to Francis Martes who is making his first Major League start. He is considered by many to be the top pitching prospect in the Astros organization and was called up for the first time last week and in a relief appearance, surrendered four runs on four hits while striking out a pair and walking two in 3.2 innings. Martes began the season in AAA, where he struggled with a 5.29 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in eight starts. Texas gives the ball to Andrew Cashner who has been very solid in his first season with the Rangers. He has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts including two runs or less eight times. The Astros are 1-4 in their last five home games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Texas Rangers |
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06-13-17 | Phillies +218 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Phillies dropped their sixth straight game last night as they blew a 4-0 lead and lost in extra innings, their second straight one-run loss. Philadelphia has lost 14 one-run games on the season which is the most in baseball so this team has been on the cusp of doing better than what the record shows. The Phillies again come in as a huge underdog but there is definitely value in this pitching matchup. Boston won for the third time in four games on this current homestand and it remains four games behind New York in the American League East. The starting pitching has been pretty poor this season with the exception of Chris Sale, and that includes David Price in his limited action. He has a 5.29 ERA through three starts and is coming off the worst of the three. This is his first home start of the season but Fenway has not been great as he posted a 4.11 ERA in 17 starts last season. Ben Lively gets the call for the Phillies and he is one of the top pitching prospects in the organization. He came over in a trade in 2014 with Cincinnati and has impressed as he has matured. He went 18-5 last season with Reading and Lehigh Valley with a 2.89 ERA over 28 starts. Through his first nine starts this season, Lively went 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA and he has carried that into the Majors where he has posted two quality outings in two starts with a 2.57 ERA. 10* (923) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-13-17 | Dodgers v. Indians +159 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Dodgers head back east following a 4-2 homestand and they go into Tuesday a game under .500 on the road compared to sitting 15 games over .500 at home. They obviously have the big pitching advantage tonight but are paying for it while going against a quality team in need of a solid ending to its homestand. The Indians were picked by many to head back to the World Series but they have been a pretty big disappointment as they are just two games over .500 including a game under .500 at home. Still, this is a very dangerous team and have been playing better here with six wins in their last eight games at Progressive Field. Going against Clayton Kershaw is never an easy thing to do but we are in a good spot to do so here. The Dodgers have won his last seven starts and he is a huge public consensus play tonight based on the fact that he is priced less than -180 for the first time on the road this season. Going back, the Indians are 11-4 in their last 15 interleague home games against left-handed starters. Trevor Bauer gets the ball for Cleveland and he is having an up and down season but has been much better of late. He had allowed three runs or less in five straight outings prior to his last one in Colorado but we can give him a pass on that one at Coors Field. He has a 3.92 ERA in his last three home starts and the Indians are 10-4 in his last 14 home starts. 10* (926) Cleveland Indians |
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06-12-17 | Rockies +123 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Colorado had its seven-game winning streak snapped with a loss in Chicago yesterday despite the offense staying hot. It was the pitching that was the letdown as the Rockies had allowed three runs or less during the winning streak, allowing an average of just 1.6 rpg. Pitching and Colorado have been oil and water in the past but they possess the ninth ranked ERA in baseball which has helped in giving them the best record in the National League. After losing the first two games of their series with Miami, the Pirates won the final two games over the weekend to move a game over .500 at home. This is a team that has struggled to put together big winning streaks and the big issue has been adjusting to a new team as they have won just two of their last 10 series openers. This will be an emotional night for Pirates starter Jameson Taillon who is making his first start since being diagnosed with testicular cancer just over five weeks ago. He certainly has the ability to put up a big performance but he is likely to be held to a limited pitch count and Colorado has been mashing right-handed pitching of late while going back, the Rockies are 19-7 in their last 26 road games against right-handed starters. Colorado turns to Kevin Freeland who is having an incredible rookie season. Through 12 starts, he has a 3.21 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and he has been just as good if not better on the road. The Pirates are 2-6 in their last eight games against left-handed starters and are hitting just .226 on the season against southpaws. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
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06-11-17 | Reds +164 v. Dodgers | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The Reds have let us down the last two nights but we will go back to them again on Sunday after a couple of bad luck days. They lost starter Amir Garrett in the second inning on Friday after Austin Barnes hit a line drive back to the mound that hit the palm of the pitching hand of Garrett and he was forced to leave and last night, they lost with two outs in the ninth inning as a +200 underdog. They are not getting the same big number today but it is still substantial as they look to close out this series with a win. The Dodgers have won three straight as the pitching has stepped up but that should take a step back today and the Cincinnati offense is due for a break out after scoring just six runs in the first two games of this series. Hyun-Jin Ryu takes the hill for Los Angeles and he has been very average this season with a 4.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts with only two of those resulting in quality performances. The Dodgers have lost seven of those nine stats and going back, they are 2-10 in his last 12 starts. Cincinnati counters with Tim Adleman who has rebounded from a shaky start to the season. He has tossed three straight quality outings while posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in the process. The Reds have won five of his last seven starts and today, he is the biggest underdog he has been all season. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-11-17 | Angels +172 v. Astros | Top | 12-6 | Win | 172 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
Houston has cooled off as it has lost three of its last five games following an 11-game winning streak and while it is going for the series win here, it is completely overvalued based on this pitching matchup. The Astros are 21-11 at home which is the third best home record in the American League but nearly half of those wins have come with their two aces, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, on the hill. The Angels are 3-2 on this current roadtrip and the offense has been holding together pretty well after Mike Trout went down with a thumb injury. They have averaged 5.0 rog over their last eight games and are in a spot to go more than that average today and going back, the Angels are 5-2 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They square off against David Paulino will be making just his third start of the season as he remains in the rotation until Joe Musgrave returns which is likely to happen this week. While Paulino has not been shelled, he has been fairly average with a 4.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in two outings. Los Angeles turns to Jesse Chavez who has a below average ERA but a strong 1.28 WHIP in his 12 starts. Only three of those starts have been poor ones as he has allowed three runs or less eight times and in 23 career games against the Astros, he possesses a 2.86 ERA. 10* (921) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-10-17 | Reds +225 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The Reds let us down last night but there was some early bad luck involved as they lost starter Amir Garrett in the second inning after Austin Barnes hit a line drive back to the mound that hit the palm of the pitching hand of Garrett and he was forced to leave. The bullpen did not do its job early and Cincinnati had its four-game winning streak snapped. The Dodgers got their offense in gear with seven runs which was more than their previous four games combined but a slump cannot be considered gone after just one game. They are still hitting only .190 over their last 10 games which has dropped their overall average to just .248. Asher Wojciechowski had a rough debut with the Reds as he faced the Blue Jays and going into that game, there was a lot of pregame hype as it was Toronto that drafted him and eventually got rid of him and he went in wanting some retribution and he did not get it. He bounced back with a quality outing against the Cardinals and is in position to continue that here. Alex Wood has not pitched since May 26 as he recovers from inflammation in his sternum. He has not allowed a run in his last 25.1 innings but this is the time to go against that because of his extended time off. 10* (959) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-10-17 | White Sox +203 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 203 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Indians took the opener of this series last night behind a solid performance from Corey Kluber and remain a game and a half behind Minnesota in the American League Central. They were massive favorites with their ace on the hill and while the price is not as big tonight, it is still pretty big and overpriced considering who is on the mound. The White Sox have dropped eight of their last nine games which has put them seven games behind the Twins but taking a look at the starters they have faced over this stretch gives you a good idea why they have been in a rut. Chicago is a 2-1 underdog against a non-elite starter and this is where the huge value lies. Josh Tomlin is more than a 2-1 favorite for the first time in his career, a span of 120 career starts and his 5.54 ERA this season suggests he should not be laying that price here. That ERA inflates to 6.19 in six home starts with the Indians going just 2-4 in those games. Three of his six quality starts have come against the offensively inept Royals. Chicago counters with David Holmberg who has pitched well despite being capped at 75 pitches in two starts. The Indians are 2-7 in their last nine home games against left-handed starters while hitting just .226 this season at home against lefties. 10* (971) Chicago White Sox |
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06-09-17 | Reds +180 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The Reds roll into Los Angeles with some solid momentum following a four-game sweep over St. Louis to start the week. The road has been a struggle for Cincinnati with a 10-15 record but that is clearly taken into consideration with the line we are dealing with tonight. The Reds have won four of their last five series openers. Los Angeles dropped two of three against the Nationals to open its homestand and going back, it is just 3-5 over its last eight games. The problem has been the offense as the Dodgers have scored two runs or less in seven of those eight games but still come in as a 2-1 favorite tonight. The contrarian aspect tonight is backing Amir Garrett who has been lit up in his last three starts but catches the Dodgers offense at the right time. Prior to this stretch, he allowed two runs or less in five of his first six starts and the Dodgers are hitting just .185 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Los Angeles counters with Rich Hill who has been very average this season while dealing with blister issues. He has failed to make it past five innings in all six of his starts and his control has been a real issue of late. Over his last three starts, he has a 6.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP while walking 12 and striking out just 11 hitters. Cincinnati has crushed left-handed pitching at a .348 clip over its last five games. Look for that explosive offense to continue as Hill is not the same pitcher as he once was and his command remains off. 10* (911) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-09-17 | Tigers +136 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Detroit is coming off a 4-2 homestand despite dropping two of three against the Angels in its last series. The Tigers have been an average road team but they have won four straight games following a loss and the offense is in a good spot based on the opposing overvalued starter. Boston is coming off a 5-5 roadtrip and come in on an average 10-8 run at home. Both offense and pitching have been very inconsistent of late and seem to be overpriced at home once again. There was hope Justin Verlander would be able to stay on pace to make this start but he ended up throwing a bullpen session yesterday instead and he is hopeful to make a start this weekend. Jordan Zimmerman instead gets the start and he is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he allowed one run in six innings against the White Sox and he hopes to carry that onto the road where he has been pretty bad. The Tigers have not won any of his five road starts and a reason for that has been poor run support where he is getting just 3.4 rpg. The Tigers are 6-2 in his last eight starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Brian Johnson is coming off his best ever outing in three career starts as he tossed a five-hit shutout against Seattle while striking out eight and walking none. We can definitely consider that an aberration. He was send back down to Pawtucket and was listed after just innings Saturday due to hamstring cramping so he may not even be 100 percent healthy. The Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
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06-08-17 | Astros v. Royals +183 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Following an 11-game winning streak, the Astros have dropped two straight games so they are going to be a very popular public play tonight. They blew a 7-1 lead on Tuesday and that type of meltdown can carry forward for a while and we may be seeing that with Houston which had allowed more than six runs only once during that winning streak but has allowed 7 and 9 runs the last two games. Kansas City has been very average of late but it is over .500 at home and catching a huge number on its own field shows a lot of value. The Royals are 5-4 on this current homestand and they need this game to keep the momentum going with a nine-game west coast roadtrip upcoming. Lance McCullers will be making his second start since being named the American League Pitcher of the Month for May and his first June starts was not good. After going 4-0 with a 0.99 ERA in May, McCullers was very shaky against Texas as he allowed four runs, three earned, on six hits in just 4.1 innings. He has not been very consistent on the road as he has a 3.58 ERA with just three of six starts resulting in quality outings. He has a solid track record against the Royals but has never faced them in Kansas City. The Royals counter with Jason Hammel and he has been pretty inconsistent all season but this is a spot he has dominated. He has been a significant home underdog twice this season and stepped up with a pair of quality starts, positing 2.84 ERA in the process. 10* (970) Kansas City Royals |
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06-08-17 | White Sox +142 v. Rays | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The White Sox were handcuffed last night by Jacob Faria who was making his Major League debut and allowed just one run on three hits in 6.1 innings. They have now dropped six of their last seven games as the pitching has been brutal, allowing an average of 7.7 rpg over that stretch although the pitching has been decent at the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The Rays snapped a four-game slide with the victory last night and it was Faria that stopped the bleeding from the arms that had also allowed an average of 7.7 rpg in its previous seven games. The offense continues to struggle as Tampa Bay has averaged only 2.4 rpg over its last five games. We played on Derek Holland in his last start and it backfired as he put up his worst start of the season against the Tigers last Friday. We can call it an aberration however as he had been great prior to that as in in 10 previous starts, he had tossed eight quality outings while allowing more than two runs only twice. Tampa Bay is hitting just .218 against left-handed pitching which is the second worst average in baseball and it has dropped five straight games against lefty starters. Jake Odorizzi gets the ball for the Rays and he is coming off a poor outing where he gave up eight runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks over 2.1 innings. A first inning error accounted for most of the damage but it was not a good a showing and he now has a career-worst 1.9 HR/9 ratio to go along with a gaudy 5.38 FIP. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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06-07-17 | Marlins +177 v. Cubs | Top | 6-5 | Win | 177 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Chicago has grabbed the first two games of this series and it goes for the sweep tonight while also trying to extend its five-game winning streak. It has been a struggle for the Cubs this season as they are only three games over .500 but because of the public backing them on a consistent basis, the prices have been high and they have been one of the worst profitable teams in baseball. A contrarian angle here is that the home team has won 14 straight games the Cubs have been involved in which includes eight straight wins for Chicago at Wrigley Field. Miami has lost back-to-back games for the first time since May 18-19 as it is now 5-1 in its last six games following a loss and going back, the Marlins have been solid in this spot, going 16-5 in their last 21 games after losing the first two games of a series. John Lackey gets the ball for Chicago and he has been very inconsistent this season with a 4.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 11 starts with only four of those being quality outings. Chicago is a mere 3-3 in his six home starts where his numbers are just as bad and Miami is hitting a solid .267 on the road against right-handed pitching. The Marlins turn to Jose Urena who has hit a rough patch after a solid start to the season but he has a good opportunity to bounce back at a very favorable price on top of it. He is still getting a ton of run support and going back, the Marlins are 4-1 in his last five road starts. 10* (907) Miami Marlins |
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06-07-17 | Mets +140 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 140 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Texas snapped its four-game losing streak with a 10-8 victory last night in this series opener and now sits four games under .500. The Rangers have been pretty solid at home this season with an 18-13 record but they are just 2-5 on this current homestand with the pitching being atrocious. In these seven games, Texas has allowed a whopping 7.1 rpg while allowing seven runs or more in five of those. The Rangers are just 1-10 in their last 11 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. New York has now lost five of its last six games as its pitching has also been struggling but at least gets a break on the mound tonight. Surprisingly, the three games the pitching has struggled in was with Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom, twice, on the hill. Tonight, New York goes with Zack Wheeler who is having a very good season with the best of it coming most recently. He posted a 5.40 ERA through his first four starts but in his last six outings, he has put up a 2.65 ERA, allowing three runs or less in all of those games including giving up two runs or less five times. The Mets are 4-1 in his last five starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers counter with Yu Darvish who is still the ace of the staff and has shown signs of it but his command has not been great of late. Despite throwing 104, 109 and 105 pitches in his last three starts, he has made it into the sixth inning just once where he has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. 10* (929) New York Mets |
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06-06-17 | Twins +197 v. Mariners | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The Twins took three of four against the Angels over the weekend to maintain their one-game lead in the American League Central which came after a rough homestand. Minnesota has been one of the best road teams in baseball with a 17-6 record which is second only to Houston. The Twins are 8-1 in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Seattle has been on a mini-roll as it has won seven of its last eight games but staying afloat in this division is going to be tough as it trails the red hot Astros by 11 games. They have been pretty solid at home this season with a 17-10 record but going back, the Mariners are 2-9 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. We played against James Paxton in his first start back from the disabled list and he was solid in his limited action as he allowed no runs in 5.1 innings against the Rockies. He will have a limited pitch count again tonight and will be facing a tough task as the Twins have been hitting lefties well at a .294 clip over their last 10 games. The Mariners are 3-8 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record while Minnesota has won five of its last seven games against left-handed starters. Hector Santiago is coming off one of his worst starts of the season as he allowed six runs over six innings against Houston but in his other start where he allowed six runs, he followed that up with a bounce back effort. Take those two starts away and he has posted a 3.25 ERA in his other nine starts. 10* (973) Minnesota Twins |
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06-06-17 | Padres +175 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
After sweeping the Cubs, San Diego lost two of three against Colorado as the offense was shut down by just scoring two runs in those final two games. The Padres are in a good spot for the offense to bounce back tonight however. Arizona heads home and it is one of the biggest public consensus plays of the night which is no surprise as a big home favorite. While they have been great at home, the Diamondbacks are 2-6 in their last eight home games following a road trip of seven or more days. San Diego sends Dinelson Lamet to the hill for his third Major League start. After dominating the Cal League for the Lake Elsinore Storm early last year, he earned a promotion to the El Paso Chihuahuas and wound up being their most dominant starter. He picked right up where he left off, improving his ground ball and strikeout rates and in six of his eight starts he held opponents to one run or less. He has allowed just three runs on eight hits in 10 innings in his two starts with the Padres while striking out 16. Robbie Ray counters for the Diamondbacks and he has been nothing short of spectacular. He has gone three straight starts without allowing a run over 23.2 innings but all of those came on the road. He has struggled at hitter-friendly Chase Field where he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in five starts compared to a 0.64 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in six road starts. His home/road career splits over his career are also far off and that includes his games against San Diego as he has a 7.20 ERA in three home starts compared to a 1.31 ERA in three outings at Petco Park. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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06-05-17 | Giants v. Brewers +106 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The Giants dropped their final two games against the Phillies over the weekend after taking the series opener as the road continues to be a big struggle. San Francisco is just 10-21 on the highway and going back, the Giants are 19-49 in their last 68 road games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee salvaged the final game of its series against the Dodgers on Sunday to avoid the sweep and looks to inch closer to .500 at home while extending its lead in the National League Central. The Brewers have excelled in this spot as they are 19-7 in their last 26 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. We won with Junior Guerra in his last start and we will back him again here. This is just his fourth start of the season as he made his first one back in April but missed seven weeks with a calf injury. Since coming back, he has been sensational as he has allowed just one run on seven hits over 11.2 innings. He was the Opening Day starter for a reason following last year where he posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 20 starts. The Brewers are 8-1 in his last nine starts against teams with a losing record. Jeff Samardzija counters for the Giants and he has been decent yet he is not getting wins as the offense is doing nothing behind him. He had a string of three straight quality starts broken last time out and on the road, he is 0-4 with a 4.87 ERA. The Giants are 3-10 in his last 13 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-02-17 | White Sox +153 v. Tigers | Top | 5-15 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a 4-3 homestand as the pitching held up for the most part, allowing four runs or less in six of those games. The only game the White Sox did not came against Chris Sale and Boston where Jose Quintana was surprisingly shelled for seven runs on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings. Chicago has struggled on the road but did take two of three here earlier and has won six of the nine meetings with Detroit this season. The Tigers concluded their roadtrip with a win in Kansas City but it was a rough trip as they went just 4-7 to drop to three games under .500. winning streak have been few and far between as the Tigers are 1-10 in their last 11 games following a win. Michael Fulmer gets the ball for Detroit and he has been sensational with 10 quality outings in 10 starts but Detroit is just 6-4 in those games as his run support has been spotty. Two of those losses have come against the White Sox where his offense has given him just 2.0 rpg. That offense could struggle again as Derek Holland goes for Chicago and he has been nearly as good as Fulmer. In 10 starts, he has tossed eight quality outings while allowing more than two runs only twice. The White Sox have given him 7.0 rpg over his last four road starts and the Tigers are hitting just .229 at home against left-handed pitching while hitting only .213 against lefties over their last 10 games. 10* (969) Chicago White Sox |
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06-01-17 | Brewers +136 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
We won with the Brewers last night and will back them again today as this line is saying the Mets are the much better team and that is hardly the case. New York is now five games under .500 including three games under .500 at Citi Field so it hardly warrants a price this size even though it is substantially less than last night. The Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee retained its 1.5-game lead in the National League Central and improved to 14-10 on the road and overall, its +28 run differential is fourth best in the National League. The Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. They send Chase Anderson to the hill and he is coming off his best start of the season, limiting Arizona to no runs on just one hit in seven innings while striking out 11. The Brewers are 7-1 in his last eight starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Zack Wheeler has been on a solid run but he is not in a prime spot today. While Wheeler has been pitching well, he had to leave his last start earlier than probably expected because of something no pitcher wants to deal with and that is a blister. Whether or not it affects him today, it is still an issue that can pop and going at it 100 percent could be an issue. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (903) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-01-17 | A's +195 v. Indians | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 0 m | Show |
We are taking the contrarian angle on Oakland today following its win over Cleveland last night which snapped a four-game slide. This is a contrarian play because the Indians are going to be very heavily bet today as they will be expected to bounce back and are already the highest public consensus on the board for Thursday. Oakland has struggled on the highway overall this season but the linesmakers are taking that into consideration with a massive line today. The Indians are percentage points behind the Twins in the American League Central and they have certainly been nothing special at home this season with an 11-14 record. They are paying the price today based on name and starting pitching matchup with Corey Kluber taking the hill. He has missed over four weeks with a lower back strain and prior to this he posted a 5.06 ERA in six starts. He is coming off a great season in 2016 while putting up a heavy workload in the postseason and overall tossed 249.1 innings which can be a concern as there have been numerous big name pitchers which have struggled after such seasons. Jharel Cotton counters for Oakland and he has been up and down but take out two starts against the Angels and one start against the Rangers, he has posted a 3.10 ERA in his other six starts. It should also be noted that all three of those poor outings were at home and he has a 3.13 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four road starts. 10* Oakland A's |
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05-31-17 | Rockies +167 v. Mariners | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Seattle won the first two games in Colorado of this four-game home-and-home set and now heads home to try and keep the momentum going and turn its season around. The Mariners two wins on the road were surprising considering they came into Colorado with a 9-20 road record but the offense led the way in the thin air of Coors Field. Heading back to Safeco Field is not ideal to keep the offense rolling yet they are being listed as a favorite that should dominate. Colorado went just 2-3 on its recent homestand but it has been a much better team on the road anyway as it comes into Seattle with an 18-8 record and that .692 winning percentage is second best in baseball behind the Twins which are at .737. Colorado is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss and sends Antonio Senzatela to the hill who is having an excellent rookie season. He is 7-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 games and has shown the ability to thrive in tough situations. With runners in scoring position, he has allowed only eight hits in 51 at-bats, with no home runs and only two doubles. James Paxton was one of baseball's top pitchers in the opening month of the season, posting a 3-0 record, 1.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. He was put on the disabled list after a May 2 start against the Angels so this will be his first real start in four weeks and could very well be limited after throwing just 55 pitches in his rehab outing last Friday. The Mariners are 6-15 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (979) Colorado Rockies |
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05-31-17 | Brewers +168 v. Mets | Top | 7-1 | Win | 168 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Mets have opened this series with a pair of close wins including a 12-inning victory last night but they are still four games under .500 on the season. New York is a heavy favorite tonight which is driven by the starting pitching matchup but even with the name advantage, there is not necessarily a big team advantage that warrants this kind of price. The Mets are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Milwaukee is still two games over .500 and has a 1.5-game lead in the National League Central. The Brewers have a winning road record despite three straight defeats dating back to their last roadtrip and they have been solid in this spot as they are 19-7 in their last 26 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Mets send Jacob deGrom to the mound and he is reason they are such big favorites. He is having a very good season with a 3.23 ERA in 10 starts but New York is just 6-4 in those games including 2-2 at home. He faced the Brewers twice last season and allowed eight runs over 11 innings and going back, the Mets are 2-5 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. The Brewers counter with Junior Guerra who is making just his third start of the season. He made his first one back in April but missed seven weeks with a calf injury and he was great in his last outing, allowing just one run on three hits in 5.2 innings. He was the Opening Day starter for a reason following last season where he posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 20 starts. 10* (957) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-30-17 | Reds +164 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Toronto erupted for 17 runs last night against Cincinnati and with the offense now being fully healthy for the first time pretty much all season, the Blue Jays are expected to make a charge after a horrible start to the season. They have scored 25 runs in the three games with Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back and they are now back to being priced the way they were last season. The Reds are in rebuilding mode but have played better than expected as they are just two games under .500 including only three games under .500 on the road. After suffering through a seven-game losing streak, the Reds have gone 4-0 over their last four games following a loss so they have avoided long losing skids. They send Asher Wojciechowski to the hill who is making his first start of the season and just his fourth in his big league career. He was called up recently and impressed with 3.2 shutout innings against Colorado which came after posting a 1.40 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over five starts at AAA. He will be emotionally changed facing the team that drafted him and then traded him away. J.A. Happ will be making his first start in six weeks and after just one rehab start, he will be limited to no more than 75 pitches. Going back, the Blue Jays are 1-4 in his last five home starts. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-30-17 | A's +155 v. Indians | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Oakland dropped the opener of this series yesterday and has now dropped three straight games on this roadtrip to fall to 7-18 on the highway this season. The A's are in good spot tonight to get back into the win column as they have a big edge in the pitching matchup as they have dealt with some strong opposing pitching over the couple weeks. Cleveland has taken two straight games following a three-game losing streak to open this homestand. The Indians are now just a game behind Minnesota in the American League Central but at three games over .500 overall, they are overvalued in this matchup tonight. Sonny Gray gets the ball for the A's and this is just his sixth start on the season after opening the year on the shelf. His opening start was not a great one as he allowed four runs in six innings but in his four subsequent starts, he has posted a 2.66 ERA which includes quality performances in his last three starts. The Indians are 1-4 in their last five home games against right-handed starters. Cleveland sends Trevor Bauer to the hill and he has been pretty bad all season yet is still priced way too high. In nine starts, he has just two quality outings and overall he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and his number at home improve only very slightly. 10* (913) Oakland A's |
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05-29-17 | Phillies +141 v. Marlins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Philadelphia hits the road after a disappointing homestand where it went just 2-5 and the recent struggles go further back which is playing a part in this number. However, when facing a team with similar struggles, taking advantage of this overpriced number is the way to go. While the Phillies have struggled over the last month, the Marlins have not fared much better and despite a series win over the Angels this past weekend, they are 8-22 over their last 30 games and going back further, they are 1-10 in their last 11 games following a win. Miami has just eight home wins on the season, fewest in baseball, and is a hefty favorite behind a pitcher than has yet to win on the season. Edinson Volquez has had a rough start to the season as he has posted a 4.82 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine starts where he has gone 0-7. His numbers are not any better at home and while he has put up the occasional good start, his offense behind him is as just much to blame as he has gotten only 2.1 rpg of support including 1.7 rpg in three home starts. Jeremy Hellickson is coming off his worst start of the season against Colorado but he has been solid for the most part, allowing three runs or less in eight of ten starts while posting a 2.56 ERA in those eight games. Overall, he has a 1.15 WHIP on the season which shows how good he has been. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-29-17 | Mariners +138 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 138 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
Seattle picked up a much needed win in Boston on Sunday as the Mariners continue their roadtrip on Monday afternoon. They had scored nine runs in eight games after enduring back-to-back shutouts at Boston but rebounded Sunday to beat the Red Sox 5-0 while their offense halted a scoreless streak that lasted 23 innings. Colorado took two of three against St. Louis to improve to 33-19 which is the best record in the National League. The Rockies offense continues to lead the way but surprisingly, the pitching has been solid by allowing three runs or less in six of their last seven games. That strong pitching could be in question today however as Tyler Chatwood takes the hill for Colorado. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Phillies but that came on the road where he has a 3.08 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five starts. Coors Field has not been as nice to him as he has posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in five outings with only one being a quality performance. His career ERA is nearly two runs higher here than it is on the road. Sam Gaviglio gets the ball for Seattle and he looks to turn in another solid performance after putting up a 0.82 ERA in his first two starts. This comes after a 3.31 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in five starts in AAA so he has been spot on this season. 10* (975) Seattle Mariners |
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05-28-17 | Padres +162 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 162 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
San Diego has been on the wrong side of scheduling luck as it has faced the two top aces in Washington in Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer but things get a little better today. To no surprise, the Padres were mowed down by the duo and actually we able to score just a single run and have now gone 14 straight scoreless innings. The Nationals have won five of their last six games and the pitching has been the difference as they have allowed two runs or less in all five of those wins. While they were very heavy favorites in the first two games of this series based on the starters, they are significant favorites again today despite a big drop off. And they are the biggest Vegas bet on the board at 78 percent as of this morning. Washington hands the ball to Joe Ross who has been average at best with a 5.32 ERA in four starts but we do know that he has been the most fortunate pitcher in baseball. In four starts, he has received and average of 15.5 rpg as the offense has given him 10, 23, 15 and 14 runs and this trend will not continue. San Diego turns to Jhoulys Chacin who has been hit or miss but mostly on the good side. He has three bad starts including his last but he bounced back from the first two and in six of his 10 starts, he has allowed three runs or less. In three career starts here, he has allowed just one run and posted a 0.45 ERA. 10* (901) San Diego Padres |
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05-28-17 | Rangers +152 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 152 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Texas has been unable to avenge any of its losses from getting swept in the playoffs last season against Toronto but today presents a good opportunity to avoid the sweep. The Rangers have dropped five straight games following an 11-1 run that got them over .500 but have slipped back down to two games under .500. They have faced some difficult starting pitching during this skid but look to catch a break today. The Blue Jays meanwhile have won five straight games and going back further, they are 13-6 over their last 19 games and are now just three games under .500. But they really do not warrant being favorites of this size as this is the most they have been favored by at home since mid-April. Joe Biagni has been dependable but certainly not dominating through his first four starts. He did not allow an earned run in his first two outing but he has given up eight runs in his last two starts and he has failed to go more than five innings in any start. He did not allow a ton of baserunners in his first two starts but that has changed over the last two games. Andrew Cashner allowed four runs in 5.1 innings in his first start and five runs innings in his last start but in six starts in-between, he allowed two earned runs or less in all six. Lack of strong run support has been a problem but this could be a day when we see the bats come to life. 10* (915) Texas Rangers |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers +135 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 135 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Arizona owns the best home record in baseball at 21-8 but it is still under .500 on the road despite winning the first two games of this series in Milwaukee. The Diamondbacks are riding a five-game winning streak and are 10-1 over their last 11 games so it comes as no surprise they are the biggest consensus road play of the day as the public is all in. Milwaukee has dropped five straight games after a great start to the season but is in a good spot here as it has won six straight games following losses in the first two games of a series. Chase Anderson has been in a bit of a slump after a great start to the season and he looks to regain his form at Miller Park where he has been very solid. Despite not being able to pick up a win, he has a 2.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in four home starts and his overall numbers here have been great in two seasons. Zack Greinke is off to a great start but he has been fortunate to have five of his last six starts taking place at home where he has been dominant. His road ERA is close to a run and a half higher and as opposed to getting great run support at home, he is getting just 2.3 rpg on the highway. Milwaukee is tied for fourth in baseball in runs scored and this is a great time to get the offense going once again. 10* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-27-17 | Royals +155 v. Indians | Top | 5-2 | Win | 155 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Kansas City won the opener of this series last night and looks to win consecutive road games for the first time on this current roadtrip. The pitching has been solid as the Royals have allowed four runs or less in six of the seven games as the bullpen has stepped up big time after a tough start to the season. Cleveland has struggled this month as it is 10-13 in May and the offense can be to blame as the Indians have averaged just 3.6 rpg since the start of the month. Danny Salazar has been a mess this season as he is 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA, allowing 29 earned runs in 47 innings and he has allowed a team high 11 home runs. His lack of command has always been his issue and that is his real problem this season Salazar has a nearly 10 percent decline in ground ball rate, and for the first time since 2014 has a ground ball rate below 40 percent which impacts both his BABIP and more fly balls makes his HR/FB rate all the more influential. Kansas City counters with Jason Vargas who is once again being undervalued. He is coming off his seventh quality start of the season in nine outings and has allowed three runs or less in all but one of those nine games. Cleveland is hitting .161 against lefties in its last 10 games and the Indians are 1-5 in their last six home games against left-handed starters. 10* (967) Kansas City Royals |
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05-26-17 | Reds +120 v. Phillies | Top | 5-2 | Win | 120 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This can be considered a toss-up game and maybe even an edge to the Reds yet the Phillies are pretty healthy favorites. Cincinnati took two of three against Cleveland before the rain out yesterday and going back, the Reds are 63-31 in their last 94 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Philadelphia snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over Colorado in 11 innings yesterday but the offense remains a concern as it has scored two runs or less in five straight games. The Phillies are 1-6 in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Tim Adleman gets the ball for the Reds and he is the reason they are significant underdogs here. He has had a pair of rough outings of late but opened with three solid outings in his first four starts by allowing three runs or fewer. Aaron Nola counters for the Phillies and he is coming off a good start at Pittsburgh following a month on the disabled list. He faces a tough offense here that has scored four runs or more in nine straight games and going back, the Phillies are 3-8 in his last 11 home starts. 10* (901) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-26-17 | A's +150 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 150 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
The Yankees were rained out yesterday afternoon against Kansas City after taking two of the first three games of the series. They have a 2.5-game lead in the American League East but are in another spot where they are overvalued based on name and starter, the latter of which has been a big disadvantage. Oakland won four of six games on its most recent homestand and the offense has gotten things going by averaging 5.3 rpg over its last 11 games. The A's are 5-0 in their last five games against teams with a winning record and look to get to Masahiro Tanaka who is having a very rough season. He has allowed 14 runs in just 4.2 innings in his last two starts and his ERA sits at 6.56 overall. He has just four quality outings in nine starts and over his past four starts, his ERA is 10.50 and he's served up 10 home runs in 18 innings. Sean Manaea will get the start after Kendall Graveman got scratched this afternoon. Manaea had a great rookie season but he been rather inconsistent this season but this is a good matchup as the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching and are hitting just .230 against lefties over their last 10 games. 10* (917) Oakland A's |
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05-25-17 | Rangers +181 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Red Sox have turned up their offense and are on a three-game winning streak following a total of 32 runs scored over this stretch. They were massive favorites in the first two games of this series and are once again tonight despite a big drop down in starting pitching following Rick Porcello and Chris Sale. The Rangers have cooled down following a 10-game winning streak as they have dropped three of their last four games and are not getting very much respect here despite closing the gap on the mound. Drew Pomeranz gets the ball for Boston and he is having a very average season but is now favored by the biggest number he has been all season. He has just two quality outings in his eight starts and has posted a 4.97 ERA and 1.47 WHIP overall. He came over from San Diego last season after a great first half with the Padres but really struggled with the Red Sox and in 22 games here, he has a 4.97 ERA. With the exception of that stretch in San Diego and a solid two-year run in Oakland, both in pitcher-friendly ballparks, he has been a very below average pitcher. Nick Martinez counters for the Rangers and he has been fairly solid. He had a bad start in Houston but in his other five starts, he has a 3.19 ERA. Keeping Texas in the game is all that is necessary here as he quiets down the Boston bats while the offense finally gets him some run support. 10* (967) Texas Rangers |
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05-25-17 | Padres +129 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 129 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
We won with the Padres last night and we will back them again tonight in what is another great contrarian situation. The public is eating up the Mets as they are the biggest consensus on the board and that is based on pitching name and that is it. San Diego snapped a three-game road losing skid last night and while the road has been troublesome, the differences between these two teams are not big and New York has no business being a 2-1 favorite over any team. The Mets lost their only game this season in this moneyline range and that was with Jacob deGrom on the hill. He is coming off a solid effort in his last start but he has been very up and down this season. He has followed up his last three quality starts with non-quality outings and is position to make it four in a row tonight. The Mets are just 2-2 in his four home starts while backing him with just 2.3 rpg. San Diego sends Dinelson Lamet to the hill for his Major League debut and this is a special prospect. After dominating the Cal League for the Lake Elsinore Storm early last year, he earned a promotion to the El Paso Chihuahuas and wound up being their most dominant starter. He picked right up where he left off, improving his ground ball and strikeout rates and in six of his eight starts he held opponents to one run or less. The Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters. Pitching change: This is still a play on the Padres. Rafael Montero will be starting for deGrom and he will be making his second start of the season. His first was a disaster as he allowed five runs in just 3.2 innings against Miami. Overall, he has an 8.10 ERA and 2.52 WHIP with a 16:14 K:BB ratio and the San Diego offense should once again be able to bust out like last night. 10* (955) San Diego Padres |
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05-24-17 | Tigers +150 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Detroit has been handcuffed in this series thus far as it has managed only two runs in the first two games and has scored just four runs during its three-game losing streak. The Tigers are now two games under .500 but are only four games out in the American League Central and the contrarian angle here is for the offense to come back to life. Houston still possesses the best record in baseball despite opening this homestand with three straight losses against Cleveland. The Astros are obviously playing at a high level but the moneyline price tags can be inflated when we move down in the pitching rotation and that is the case for tonight. Charlie Morton has been dependable but has been far from consistent as he has just two quality outings in his nine starts. The Astros have won four of his last five starts but a lot of that is due to the offense as Morton has received a whopping 8.0 rpg over that stretch. He has allowed seven home runs this season which has been a big makeup of his 4.26 ERA. The Tigers counter with Daniel Norris who has been inconsistent as well but he has pitched better on the road than at home and he is catching his biggest underdog price of the season. He has struggled big time during the day but he has a 3.95 ERA in five nighttime starts and faces a Houston team hitting just .222 at home and .080 over its last 10 games against left-handed pitching. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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05-24-17 | Padres +141 v. Mets | Top | 6-5 | Win | 141 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The Padres lost for the sixth time in seven games last night and May has been a disaster as San Diego is 5-15 in 20 games this month. The offense has been able to do nothing as the Padres have scored three runs or less in 14 of those 20 games and to no surprise, they are 0-14 in those games while going 5-1 when scoring four or more runs and the latter will be in play tonight. The Mets have won three of four games on this current homestand and their offense has come alive over the last three games but it has been inconsistent for the most part. The pitching has been consistent though and not in a good way as their 5.09 ERA is the worst in baseball. Robert Gsellman has played a part in the struggles as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in seven starts and three relief appearances. He has been especially poor of late as he has posted a 9.00 ERA over his last four starts. The Padres hand the ball to Jarred Cosart after putting up a solid outing as he allowed one run on five hits and a walk over five innings Thursday against Milwaukee. He was just activated from the disabled list to make his third start of the season and he has an opportunity to keep it going. While he has been with numerous teams and has been limited, he has solid career numbers with a 3.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 69 starts. 10* (903) San Diego Padres |
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05-23-17 | Indians v. Reds +160 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The Reds won the opener of this four-game home-and-home set and they are catching a very good number tonight. They have the matchup splits on their side and we go contrarian against the opposing starting pitcher who is going to be very heavily bet tonight. Cincinnati is now 10-4 over its last 14 home games and its hope is the pitching can keep the momentum going after a solid game last night. The Indians had their three-game winning streak snapped last night with the loss as the offense continues its season-long struggles. Gong back, the Indians are 4-11 in their last 15 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The heavily bet pitcher mentioned is Carlos Carrasco and we are going against his 4-0 road record and also undefeated record against Cincinnati. He was pulled from his last start with a pectoral injury and his next start was pushed back so he has lost some of his rhythm which is not good for him as the Indians are 3-11 in his last 14 starts with seven or more days of rest. Additionally, the Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. Amir Garrett looks to bounce back from a rough outing. He has posted two bad starts but both were on the road and both against two top ten offenses. He has a 2.20 ERA in his other five starts and Cleveland is hitting just .220 against lefties which is sixth lowest in baseball. 10* (974) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
We lost with the Royals last night but come back with them tonight as they are in a very good bounce back spot. As mentioned yesterday, it was a dreadful start to the season for the Royals but they have avoided big losing streaks recently, going 7-3 over their last 10 games following a loss after last night. The Yankees benefitted from three home runs last night to win their second straight game following a three-game losing streak. New York is still just 5-7 over its last 12 games and even though it got a good start from Michael Pineda last night, the starters ERA over those 12 games is 5.97. Part of those struggles have come from Jordan Montgomery who started the season pretty well with three quality outings over his first five starts but has allowed nine runs over his last two starts covering 11 innings. The Royals are hitting .262 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games. Danny Duffy counters for Kansas City and he is having a great season with the exception of two bad starts against the White Sox. He posted an 11.17 ERA in those starts but he has put up a 1.31 ERA in his other seven starts. This includes tossing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in his last start and going back, the Royals are 14-5 in his last 19 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (963) Kansas City Royals |
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05-22-17 | Giants +181 v. Cubs | Top | 6-4 | Win | 181 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Giants failed to sweep in St. Louis yesterday but they are still 7-2 over their last nine games and should have some extra fire tonight. The last time they faced the Cubs, it was in the NLDS last season in which they lost 3-1 with that dreaded Game Four being a nightmare as Chicago rallied with four runs in the ninth inning to win 6-5. Chicago is a solid 4-1 on this current homestand but sitting only two games over .500 overall and one game over .500 at home, it continues to be overvalued. Ty Blach picked up his first win of the season last time out as he tossed another gem against the Dodgers, allowing one run over seven innings. Overall, he has a 4.15 ERA which looks average but he has a 1.18 WHIP to go along with that which is very solid and that ERA is inflated because of one bad outing against Cincinnati. In his four other starts, he has a 1.73 ERA and the Cubs are hitting just .199 against lefties at home. John Lackey had one awesome start at Colorado two starts back but he has shown some struggles of late. Taking that start out, in his other five starts since April 17, he has a 6.04 ERA over 28.1 innings. He has struggled at home overall this season with a 4.43 ERA and 1.48 WHIP and the Giants are 6-1 in their last seven games against right-handed starters. 10* (905) San Francisco Giants |
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05-22-17 | Royals +159 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Kansas City lost its series in Minnesota following a Sunday split but it has been on a pretty solid run with an 8-5 run over its last 13 games. It was a dreadful start to the season for the Royals but they have avoided big losing streaks recently, going 7-2 over their last nine games following a loss. The Yankees have come back down to earth following a six-game winning streak in early May as they are just 4-7 over their last 11 games and their lead in the American League East is just a half-game. The pitching has really struggled over this stretch as the starting pitching ERA sits at a whopping 6.46. Michael Pineda has been the one starter that has not struggled and he is having a very strong season overall. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts so going against him may not seem ideal but the Yankees are just 1-4 in his last five starts pitching on four days of rest and we are playing Kansas City with a lot of that having to do with its own starting pitcher. Jason Vargas has been great this season with a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight starts and this despite a poor outing against the Yankees in his last outing. He will be out for redemption tonight after that game and his numbers are even slightly better on the road. 10* (907) Kansas City Royals |
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05-21-17 | Giants +144 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
San Francisco is slowly recovering from a horrible start to open the season as it has won seven of its last eight games following a 12-24 start. The Giants will be eying a sweep in St. Louis today behind an offense that has started to produce better and continued dominance from the starting pitching that has gone at least six innings in every start during the stretch. St. Louis meanwhile has lost four straight games to fall to 21-19 and the Cardinals continue to be an overpriced and overrated team. They are just 11-13 at home but more important, have dropped 6.3 units which shows how overpriced they have actually been. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and while his overall numbers have been average, those can attributed to one bad start. Take away his game where he allowed nine run in 3.1 innings at Cincinnati and his ERA drops from 4.04 to 2.31 in his other seven starts, six of which he has allowed two runs or less. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five home games against right-handed starters. St. Louis counters with Adan Wainwright who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed no runs in seven innings against the Cubs. It was a struggle prior to that however as he had a 6.37 ERA going into that game so he has not turned the corner because of just one good outing. The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games against right-handed starters. 10* (959) San Francisco Giants |
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05-21-17 | Nationals v. Braves +162 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The Braves will be going for a rare sweep this afternoon as they have taken the first two games of this series to pull into second place in the National League West. The public does not foresee a sweep as the Nationals are the biggest consensus play on the board and we are bucking the public opinion here. Washington has lost four straight games which is another reason it will be heavily bet today but the offense has been slumping and the pitching has been horrible. The Braves are 20-9 in their last 29 games following a win and will look to keep it going against Stephen Strasburg. He is having a solid season with a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP but has not been at his best over his last three starts with a 4.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He has pitched well in Atlanta throughout his career but he is catching one of the better Atlanta teams he has seen in a while. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games against right-handed starters and turn to Jaime Garcia who is having an up and down first season in Atlanta. His career road ERA is 4.25 which is well over a run more than his career home ERA and that is important here considering six of his first seven starts this season have been on the highway. His lone home start at SunTrust Park resulted in a quality outing and a win for Atlanta. 10* (952) Atlanta Braves |
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05-20-17 | Marlins +167 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-6 | Win | 167 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Miami has lost the first two games of this series by identical 7-2 scores and have dropped five straight games overall as the offense has mustered nothing. The Marlins have scored just eight runs over these five games but this offense is much better than this and is in a good matchup tonight. The Dodgers have won three straight following a three-game slide and have improved to 15-6 at home and are again heavy favorites but this is the one pitching matchup where they are not possessing a huge advantage. Dan Straily gets the ball for Miami and after leaving his last start early because of getting hit in the elbow, he is fine and looks to continue his solid start. He has a 3.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight starts and after a poor first outing, in his last seven starts he has a 2.72 ERA, allowing three runs or less in six of those. He will be opposed by Julio Urias who is making his fifth start of the season. He started the season in AAA to keep his workload down and while his overall ERA has been solid in both places, he has walked a total of 20 batters through 35 innings and that is not good at all. Going back, the Dodgers are 2-5 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Miami is hitting .265 against left-handed pitching including .275 on the road. 10* (913) Miami Marlins |
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05-20-17 | Blue Jays +143 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
After an extremely poor start to the season, Toronto started making strides in a comeback as it went on an 11-4 run but has since lost three of its last four games and is now seven games under .500 for the season. The offense has struggled the most but has gotten better over the last 20 games despite injuries taking their toll. Going back, the Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has been in a slump of its own as after winning six straight earlier this month, it has gone 2-6 over its last eight games and was fortunate to win last night in extra innings. The offenses could be on display tonight with Mike Bolsinger squaring off against Kevin Gausman. Bolsinger is making his third start of the season and his first one was a lot better than his second one but expect to see better results tonight. Baltimore is hitting just .231 against right-handed pitching at home and the Orioles are 1-5 in their last six games against right-handed starters. Gausman has made nine starts and his results have been worse which is not good over a longer period of time. He has a 7.19 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in those nine games with only two resulting in quality starts. Baltimore is just 1-5 in his last six starts and Gausman is again overpriced. 10* (923) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-19-17 | Indians +135 v. Astros | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Indians went just 2-4 during its recent homestand including a pair of losses against Tampa Bay to close it out. Cleveland had a day off on Thursday which is always a good thing coming off a rough stretch and going back, the Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day. Houston also had an off day yesterday and the opposite is the here as the Astros are riding a four-game winning streak while going 9-1 over their last 10 games so the day off could be a momentum killer. While they are playing very well right now, the Astros are 3-11 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning road record. Cleveland hands the ball to Trevor Bauer who had a rough start to the season but he is coming off a quality performance in his last outing. The numbers still are not pretty, and Bauer acknowledges that fact, but he says regression to the mean will be on his side at some point and his HR/FB sits at 20.5 percent, while his BABIP is .350, both much higher than his career averages. The Indians are 5-0 in his last five starts following a quality outing in his last start. Charlie Morton counters for the Astros and he is off to an inconsistent start to the season. He has a 3.97 ERA in eight starts which is pretty decent but his WHIP is at 1.37 which is not. He has been great at home but the Indians are 14-6 in their last 20 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (973) Cleveland Indians |
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05-19-17 | Nationals v. Braves +157 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 157 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The Braves took three of four against Toronto in the four-game home and home set but did lose the last game last night 9-0. They have not been as bad as expected as they are 16-22 and have played a very demanding schedule with 23 road games and just 15 home games. Washington is 1-2 to open this roadtrip after dropping the last two games in Pittsburgh heading into the weekend. Overall, the Nationals have been solid on the road but have gone just 1-5 in their last six road games. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington and he has gotten off to a solid start this season but as usual for him, his best work has come at home. He has a 4.26 ERA on the highway and has not had a sub-4.00 ERA on the road since 2014. He posted a 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts against the Braves last season and the Nationals are 2-8 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record while the Braves are 5-1 in their last six home games against left-handed starters. Atlanta turns to R.A. Dickey and he is having a solid season in his first year in Atlanta. Four of his seven starts have been quality outings and he has allowed more than three earned runs only once. This includes three of four at home with one of those already coming against Washington last month. The Nationals are 1-5 in their last six road games against right-handed starters. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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05-18-17 | Marlins +173 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
We lost with Miami yesterday as it was shut out at home against Houston and the Marlins fell to 6-14 at home which is the worst home record in baseball. While the matchup was in their favor on Wednesday, they got only three hits but the offense is in better shape tonight. The Dodgers won yesterday behind Clayton Kershaw to snap a three-game slide while they also bring in a three-game home winning streak. Los Angeles is a very public team at home and we can see that in the price again here. The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound and he is laying a hefty price despite having a very bad season. He has a 4.99 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in six starts with Los Angeles winning just one of those games. Miami is hitting .266 against lefties this season and going back, the Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine road games against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 0-6 in his last six series opening starts. Miami turns to Edinson Volquez has not been much better based on his numbers but he has been more consistent as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts including his last three. Run support has been the issue but as mentioned, this should be the game the offense comes to life. 10* (907) Miami Marlins |
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05-18-17 | Reds +180 v. Cubs | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
The Reds will be out to avoid the sweep this afternoon in Chicago after dropping Game Two last night despite scoring five runs for the second consecutive game. Cincinnati has dropped five straight overall but is still just a game under .500 as the offense has been great but the starting pitching has been the letdown. Chicago is back over .500 and it has certainly been a struggle putting together any sort of winning streak as the Cubs are just 4-6 following their last 10 wins. While the Reds starting pitching is the worst in baseball with a 5.41 ERA, Amir Garrett cannot be lumped into that category. He has a 4.25 ERA but it is that high because of just one start where he allowed nine runs against Milwaukee. In his other five starts, he has a 2.20 ERA with all of those starts resulting in quality outings. The Cubs are hitting just .241 against left-handed pitching. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs and he has been pretty inconsistent this season with a 3.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His home numbers are much better as usual but Chicago is just 2-2 in his four home starts and he has allowed 10 runs in 10.2 innings in his last two starts against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting .262 against lefties which is No. 7 in baseball. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-17-17 | White Sox +155 v. Angels | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
The Angels have won the first two games of this series capped off by a two-run, extra inning rally last night to make it three straight wins overall. Los Angeles is now sitting right at .500 but it can be considered a skewed .500 record as the Angels are -13 in run differential. The White Sox are just 2-8 over their last 10 games to fall three games under .500 but they are still positive in run differential and these two teams are not that different where there should be a moneyline this large. Miguel Gonzalez has been pretty inconsistent this season as two of his last three starts have been clunkers but four of his seven starts this season have been quality outings including three of five in night games. Going back, the White Sox are 6-2 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Angels counter with Matt Shoemaker who has also been pretty inconsistent this season and while he is coming off a great start against Detroit last time out, he is severely overpriced tonight. Los Angeles may be 3-1 in his four home starts but he has a 5.48 ERA in those games with just one of those being a quality start. The Angels are 7-21 in his last 28 starts following a quality performance in his last outing. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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05-17-17 | Astros v. Marlins +161 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Houston won its third straight game and its eighth victory in its last nine games with the 12-2 rout last night. The Astros own the best record in baseball but they are certainly paying the price for it here. Miami has dropped seven of its last eight games as both offense and pitching have struggled but this looks to be a situation where both come back together. Jose Urena gets the ball for the Marlins and he will be making his third start of the season after getting inserted into the starting rotation. His first two starts were both solid after a good run out of the bullpen. He has allowed six earned runs in 27.1 innings, giving him a team low ERA of 1.98. Part of his success this year has been due to his control as he has allowed only seven walks all season, giving him a BB/9 rate to the lowest of his career at 2.3. Urena has struggled with his control in the past, which often resulted in a lack of confidence but his confidence is at an all-time high right now. Lance McCullers has been spot on with three straight quality outing, the last two coming on the road but that makes this a good spot to go against him. He was roughed up in his first two road starts and going back, the Astros are 5-14 in his last 19 road starts. 10* (974) Miami Marlins |
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05-16-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 145 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Giants took the opener of this series last night and they have now won four straight games to continue to climb back from a poor start to the season. 15 of their 24 losses have come on the road so they have been a much better team at home which makes this price very strong. The Dodgers are two games under .500 on the road but are public favorites again tonight. Rich Hill is back in the Dodgers rotation after a month off because of a middle finger blister and some rehab work in the Minors. Hill threw 68 pitches and struck out three while starting for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga last week. But he also walked three and hit two batters and the blister issue is a real problem as it keeps coming back and Hill no doubt is affected by it as he is unable to go 100 percent. Since coming to the Dodgers, he has made only five road starts and has posted a 4.43 ERA in those games. Since 2010, he has made 145 appearances but only 26 of those have been starts so placing a price tag on him this big is unwarranted. Ty Blach has yet to win this season after four starts but has pitched well the majority of the time. He had one bad outing in Cincinnati but his other three started have resulted in a 1.69 ERA, all of which were at home. He has a 1.13 ERA in 16 career innings against the Dodgers. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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05-16-17 | Rays +160 v. Indians | Top | 6-4 | Win | 160 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland held on last night as after a 5-1 lead after the first inning, it was able to hold on for the one-run victory. It was the second straight win for the Indians while putting up eight runs in both but do not expect a repeat of that tonight. Tampa Bay is now 2-2 on this current roadtrip following a series win at Boston and it has been crushing right-handed pitching, hitting .341 over its last five games. Danny Salazar is considered part of the Big Three of the Indians rotation but he is not living up to the expectations after a superb 2015 season. He struggled at points last year and this year, he has a 5.20 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in seven starts following another poor outing in Toronto where he allowed five runs in just 2.2 innings. Jake Odorizzi has been on a solid run following a poor opening season start as he has posted a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts, the last two resulting in quality outings. His road starts have been limited to just two with one of those lasting only one inning because of a delay but he has a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP on the highway. All of this is no fluke as after an average first full season in 2014, he has a 3.46 ERA over the last three seasons spanning 388 innings. 10* (911) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-15-17 | White Sox +171 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a huge value play on the White Sox as there is no way the Angels should be favored by a number this high. They have been favored by as much as -150 but now they are crossing the line of elite moneyline favorite and Los Angeles is far from elite. Chicago took two of three over the weekend against San Diego and it hits the road where it is 9-10 on the season, not a horrible record by any means. The Angeles split with the Tigers in their four-game set and after opening 4-0 at home, they are just 8-8 here since then so there is no home field domination that is dictating the big number. Jesse Chavez gets the ball for Los Angeles and he is not pitching at an elite level as he has a 4.29 ERA in seven starts including a 5.01 ERA in four home starts. He is getting under 3.0 rpg of support in his first year in Los Angeles and the Angels are just 1-5 in his last six starts. Backing Mike Pelfrey can be a stressful endeavor as he is far from dominant but he has been good enough through four starts this season to keep Chicago in the game. He has allowed 11 earned runs in four starts but the bullpen has allowed 10 runs in those starts so he is doing his job. 10* (959) Chicago White Sox |
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05-14-17 | Reds +131 v. Giants | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
The Reds opened this series with a win over the Giants but have dropped the last two games despite solid pitching once again. Cincinnati has allowed just six runs over the last two games and eight runs total in the three games and going back, it has allowed three runs or less in nine of its last 10 games. The Giants have won the last two games thanks to solid pitching as well but the offense continues its season-long struggles. They are hitting just .228 which is fifth lowest in baseball including only .223 against righties, the second lowest average overall. Tim Adleman gets the call for Cincinnati and he has been pretty solid in his four starts as he has allowed three runs or less in three of those. His ERA sits at 4.44 but his 1.18 WHIP shows he has been better than that. Jeff Samardzija has been all over the place this season as he has posted three quality outings but has also allowed six or more runs three times. He is winless on the season and while his inconsistent pitching is part of the reason, he is getting just 2.6 rpg of support which does not help matter. 10* (911) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-14-17 | Rays +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 148 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Tampa Bay dropped Game Two of this series yesterday 6-3 as it managed only three hits, two coming off Chris Sale. The offense has a much better matchup today and we can take advantage of a very good price. Boston posted four straight wins in mid-April but has gone only 10-12 since then while going just 2-8 in the last 10 games following a win. The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while the Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Matt Andriese opened the season with a clunker against Toronto but has been in fine form since then as he has posted a 2.48 ERA over his last six starts. This includes four quality outings with both road starts resulting in quality performances. Drew Pomeranz is coming off a poor outing in Milwaukee as he allowed six runs on seven hits in just four innings and the long ball has been a real issue. He has allowed seven home runs over his last five games and while he has not lost at home, the offense has helped him out which will be an issue today. 10* (921) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-13-17 | Padres v. White Sox +128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 128 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The White Sox have been in a freefall as after the series opening loss last night, they have dropped six straight games to fall three games under .500 following a decent start to the season. While they are struggling, they should not be a home underdog to a Padres team that sits nine games under .500 including a 7-14 record on the road. Even with the loss last night, the White Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Trevor Cahill gets the call for San Diego and while he is having a good season overall, he has struggled when not pitching at Petco Park. He has a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three home starts but those numbers jump to a 5.82 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in three road outings. While he has pitched bad on the highway, the offense has not helped much, averaging only 3.7 rpg. Dylan Covey has not gotten off to a good Major League rookie season as he is winless in five starts while possessing an 8.28 ERA. However, four of those starts have come on the road and he was decent in his lone home start as he allowed two runs against the Royals. He only went four innings because of a high pitch count but we can see him putting together a good outing as he returns home to face a Padres offense that is hitting just .223, second worst in the National League. 10* (980) Chicago White Sox |
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05-12-17 | Reds +141 v. Giants | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The Reds won a tight one last night as they rallied from a 2-1 deficit for a 3-2 win to make it seven wins in their last eight games. The pitching has been outstanding over that stretch as Cincinnati has allowed three runs or less in all seven of those victories. The Giants lost for the sixth time in seven games as their offense remains one of the worst in baseball as their 117 runs scored are second fewest in all of baseball. San Francisco has scored three runs or less in 16 of their last 24 games. Johnny Cueto is having a decent season thus far as his 4.50 ERA is a little inflated as he possesses a 1.27 WHIP in seven starts. He has been the beneficiary of surprisingly good run support, getting 4.9 rpg but the way things are going now, that will be hard to match here. In his last start, he got nothing which happened to come against the Reds and Scott Feldman. Feldman is pitching great as he has a 3.76 ERA in seven starts and take away one bad outing against the Pirates and that ERA comes down to 2.45. Going back, the Giants are 1-5 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. 10* (913) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies +182 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The Rockies offense continues to play well as they put up double-digit runs last night for the fifth time this season and currently sit fourth in runs scored. Colorado is now 10 games over .500 and is catching a big number here for obvious reasons. The Dodgers had their five-game winning streak snapped last night and will be a very popular pick tonight to bounce back but there is too much value on the Rockies to pass up. Clayton Kershaw is the reason for the line and while he is having another great season, this is not his favorite venue. He has made 12 or more starts at five different ballparks and Coors Field is where he has been at his worst with a 4.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and with the exception of the old Shea Stadium where he made just one start, this ERA at Coors is the highest at any other park which is the case for a lot of pitchers but the thin air even affects Kershaw. The Rockies are 9-1 in their last 10 home games against left-handed starters. Tyler Chatwood counters for the Rockies and while he has a 4.74 ERA, his 1.26 WHIP is very solid. He is coming off another solid start and since coming to Colorado, he has a 3.46 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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05-11-17 | Pirates +120 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The Pirates have not gotten off to a good start on their current roadtrip as they were swept in Los Angeles by the Dodgers and have now lost four straight games. They now head to Arizona to stop the streak and Pittsburgh is the biggest consensus underdog on the Thursday card which makes this contrarian play even stronger. The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game skid with a win yesterday over the Tigers but they have gone just 1-4 in their last five games following a victory. Zack Greinke has gotten off to a solid start this season after a tough debut in Arizona last year but he is still getting hurt by the long ball as over his last four games, he has allowed five home runs. This is where Pittsburgh needs to take advantage. Gerrit Cole has been even better as after a bad outing in his first start in Boston, he has been dominant over his last six starts, all being quality performances. His run support has been lacking but the Pirates are 10-4 in his last 14 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game so they have been a great bounce back team when Cole is on the hill. 10* (953) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-10-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays +145 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 145 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with the Blue Jays last night as they got handcuffed by Carlos Carrasco as they managed only four hits and no runs in the 6-0 defeat. While the line is not as big tonight, Toronto has a much better edge and yet it still getting a healthy number. The Indians have won three of their last four games but are still just 4-4 on this current roadtrip. The starting pitching, sans Carrasco, has been a problem which includes the starter tonight. Danny Salazar is considered part of the Big Three of the Indians rotation but he is not living up to the expectations after a superb 2015 season. He struggled at points last year and this year, he has a 4.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in six starts and his numbers are much worse on the road. The Indians are 0-6 in his last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Toronto counters with Francisco Liriano and his home/road start stat differentials are some of the biggest in baseball. He has a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in three home starts and a 9.64 ERA and 2.79 WHIP in three road starts. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in his last five starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (912) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-10-17 | Braves +160 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Atlanta lost its fifth straight game last night as Bartolo Colon allowed five runs in the first inning and was unable to catch up. The win for the Astros was their second straight to move to 22-11 which is the second best record in baseball and the recent records have a huge impact in this overpriced line this afternoon as the Braves have a rare advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The Braves starting pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball in terms of ERA, OBP, SLG, WHIP and several other categories. The lone bright spot has been the pitching of Jaime Garcia whose ERA is 3.99 in five starts compared to 5.18 for the rest of the starters in the other 25 starts. He has tossed three straight quality outings and while Braves starters have just seven wins combined, three belong to Garcia. While Houston is hitting .285 against righties, it is hitting just .239 against lefties. The Astros turn to Joe Musgrove and this is the exact opposite position. Musgrove owns a 5.40 ERA through six starts over 31.2 innings while the rest of the starters have a 3.38 ERA in the other 27 games. 10* (925) Atlanta Braves |
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05-09-17 | Pirates +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
The Pirates were pounded in the opener of this series last night 12-1 as they allowed six first inning runs and never recovered. They fell to four games under .500 overall as the offense continues to struggle but tonight could be the spot to bounce back. Pittsburgh is 6-3 this season following consecutive losses. The Dodgers have won three straight games, scoring 30 runs in the process and look to finally be playing like the team many expected combing into the season. They still have not been great at the money window because of the big prices and that is certainly the case tonight. Ivan Nova has gotten off to a great start this season as he has a 2.14 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through six starts. His last outing was his worst but it was not even that bad as he allowed four runs in six innings. This came after opening the season with five straight quality outings. He will be opposed by Julio Urias who is making his third start of the season. He started the season in AAA to keep his workload down and while his overall ERA has been solid in both places, he has walked a total of 17 batters through 24.2 innings and that is not good at all. Going back, the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (957) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-09-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays +158 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The Blue Jays extracted a little revenge last night against Cleveland as they won the series opener, the first meeting since the Indians defeated Toronto in the American League Championship Series last fall. They got a strong pitching performance from Marcus Stroman and are hoping for another tonight from an unlikely source. Cleveland fell to 3-4 on this current roadtrip and the offense has been unable to do anything which helps the Blue Jays cause tonight. The Indians have scored three runs or less in all seven games, averaging just 1.9 rpg over this stretch. Toronto hands the ball to Mike Bolsinger who is the ninth pitcher to make a start this season after Toronto used just seven all of last season. He is making his first appearance with the Blue Jays after coming over from the Dodgers and starting the season in the Minors. He saw limited action last season but had a very strong 2015 season so he is more than capable of producing. The Indians turn to Carlos Carrasco who is riding a five-game quality start performance and his overall numbers have been outstanding. And he is paying the price for it. The Indians are averaging just 3.0 rpg in his six starts while the Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four home games against right-handed starters. 10* (960) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-08-17 | Giants +144 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Giants were swept in Cincinnati over the weekend while getting outscored 31-5 and now sit at 11-21 which is the worst record in baseball. It is no doubt a shocking start for a team expecting to contend in the National League but there is still time and the linesmakers are finally catching up. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets won their series against the Marlins but did lose on Sunday as they were shutout. Citi Field has not exactly been kind as they are just 6-11 at home and they are 0-7 in their last seven home games against team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Matt Moore has some pretty ugly numbers at first glance so backing him may not seem like a smart move but there are reasons behind it. His first six starts came against the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks twice each and those are three very potent offenses. Now he faces one of the worst as the Mets are hitting .227 which is fourth worst in baseball and includes batting just .222 against lefties. They are 1-4 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Jacob deGrom goes for New York and after a great start to the season, he got shellacked in Atlanta last time out and his control remains a big issue. 10* (903) San Francisco Giants |
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05-08-17 | Royals +132 v. Rays | Top | 7-3 | Win | 132 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City is coming off a rough homestand where it went 3-9 against the Twins, White Sox and Indians. Like the Giants, the Royals are off to a surprisingly poor start as their 10-20 record is the worst record in the American League. While they are off a poor home stretch, they have been bad on the road with just two wins but we are obviously getting a good number now because of that. Tampa Bay is back to a game under .500 following a Sunday loss to Toronto and it fell to 2-3 on this current homestand. The Rays have been generally solid at home but still are not that good where they should be favored by this much. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six games when its opponent scores two runs or less in its previous game. Nathan Karns gets the ball for the Royals and while he has been up and down, he has mostly been on the up side. He is one out away from posting three quality outings in his five overall starts and his last one was the best as he allowed no runs on just one hit in six innings against the White Sox. Blake Snell counters for Tampa Bay and he has been decent but far from dominating. He has allowed more than three runs only once in six starts but has gone more than five innings only once. In three home starts, he possesses a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and is favored by the second highest amount in 25 career starts. 10* (911) Kansas City Royals |
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05-06-17 | White Sox +196 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Baltimore won the opener of this series last night to post its second straight win but after a hot mid-April run, the Orioles are just 6-6 over their last 12 games. We go against them tonight in a classic contrarian spot where we are getting exceptional value on the White Sox. Chicago dropped to 4-4 on this current roadtrip but is still a game over .500 on the highway and the pitching remains the strength. The White Sox are 8-4 following a loss this season while going 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Dylan Covey gets the ball for Chicago and while his numbers do not look very good, he has actually been better than what shows. He has been hurt by getting behind the count in some instances which has allowed opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of five home runs in two games. His other two games were very strong where he allowed three runs total over 9.1 innings. Dylan Bundy is the reason for this huge line as he is off to a sensational start with a 1.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over six starts, all of which have been quality outings. This is not going to last forever and we can take advantage of that here in what is by far his biggest moneyline favorite price of the season. 10* (921) Chicago White Sox |
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05-06-17 | Brewers +147 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Because of a lengthy rain delay, the Brewers and Pirates played deep into the night with Pittsburgh prevailing thanks to five pitchers not allowing a run. That snapped a two-game slide for the Pirates but they are still three games under .500 for the season. Going back, the Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Milwaukee fell back to .500 with the defeat and the offense was shutout for the first time this season. The loss also snapped a five-game road winning streak against teams with a winning record as they have been solid on the road this season with an 8-5 record. Matt Garza gets the ball for Milwaukee and he is off to a solid start to the season. He allowed four runs in his season opener but only one of those was earned and he followed that up with a quality outing. Overall, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and he has been changing his pitching repertoire which hurt him in the spring but has paid off now. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole who has thrown five straight quality outings after getting pounded in his season opener. He has just one win though as the offense has given him only 2.8 rpg of support. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (903) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-05-17 | Nationals v. Phillies +158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The Nationals hit the road after a 3-3 homestand and while they have the best road record in baseball, the one series loss on the season came here in Philadelphia. The Phillies are coming off a rough roadtrip where they went just 1-6 with five of those losses coming by two runs or less including three one-run losses. They head home riding a five-game winning streak at Citizens Bank Park and catch a great number in this spot. Philadelphia gives the ball to Nick Pivetta who made his Major League debut this past Sunday and it was a pretty solid effort. He registered a 3.27 ERA in 148.2 innings between Double A and Triple A last season, while striking out 138 and walking 51. His control continued to improve this season as he got off to a 3-0 start at Triple A. He pitched 19 innings, gave up just two earned runs, walked just two and struck out 24. Now he makes his home debut which is a good situation based on the fact his first game came on the road. Stephen Strasburg is off to a great start this season with a 3.09 ERA through five starts and he has been very consistent by going seven innings in all of those starts. The Nationals are just 3-2 in those games however as they have given Strasburg only 3.2 rpg of support including three runs in two games against the Phillies this season. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-04-17 | Phillies +196 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Phillies last night as Jerad Eickhoff was cruising along but hit a snag in the sixth inning and Philadelphia eventually lost 5-4. The Phillies are two games under .500 now as the loss was their seventh one-run loss of the season which is tied for most in baseball with the Giants and Blue Jays. Chicago has won two straight games and has a 1.5-game lead over the Cardinals and Brewers in the National League Central. Despite the win last night, the Cubs are just 1-4 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and he has gotten off to a solid start to the season with a 1.89 ERA and 0.68 WHIP through his first three starts. He posted a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts with the Phillies last season but he went through double knee surgeries last fall to relieve chronic knee pain and the former first round pick is pitching like the top prospect he was. John Lackey got off to a solid start with a pair of quality outings but he has had some struggles of late as he has posted a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He has been killed by the long ball as he has given up six home runs over these last three starts. Additionally, opponents are batting nearly .300 against him and his FIP is not exactly awe-inspiring, either, coming in at an unsightly 4.93. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-03-17 | Rangers +167 v. Astros | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
It was a tough loss for the Rangers last night as they allowed five runs in the eighth inning including a grand slam by Marwin Gonzalez which sent them to their third straight loss. Texas has dropped three straight on two other occasions this season and came back both times to avoid four straight losses and they are in a great situation to do it again here. The Astros recorded their 12th comeback victory on Tuesday night which is a mixture of clutch play with some luck involved as well. Houston is laying a huge number tonight and it is not with one of its top starters as Charlie Morton brings in a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts. He is coming off a game where he struck out a career high 12 hitters against Oakland but we can call that a fluke as he had not struck out more than seven since 2014. Nick Martinez will be making his third start of the season and his first two have been solid with a 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10:1 K:BB over 13 innings. He went back and forth between starting and relieving last season and that is tough for a pitcher to go through. A change in his pitches has helped him out as he ditched his slider, a pitch he threw 21.9 percent of the time in 2016, and added a cutter, which accounted for 25.3 percent of his pitches in April. He is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven career games (four starts) against Houston and he has allowed three runs or less in 35 of 52 career starts. 10* (975) Texas Rangers |
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