Free Week 1 Prediction: Titans vs. Giants NFL Odds
Looking for Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants Free NFL Week 1 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Titans taking on the Giants on Sunday, September 11th, 2022 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Tennessee – New York matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
Tennessee Titans (0-0) vs. New York Giants (0-0)
Date: Sunday, September 11th, 2022
Time: 4:25 PM EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
NFL Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: Titans -5.5 (-110) | Giants +5.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 1 Moneyline Odds: Titans -239 | Giants +191
NFL Week 1 NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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After capturing the AFC’s top seed in 2021, prognosticators are down on the Titans. Brian Daboll looks to shock the culture in NY by changing the script and getting a Giants win in Week 1.
Do you remember that scene in The Dark Knight where the Joker is coaxing Harvey Dent to become Two Face? It’s a heavy scene that transforms the likeable, ethical DA prosecuting Gotham’s most deplorable, into the secondary villain. The message the Joker gives is that so long as everything goes according to plan, nobody panics. Even if the results are horrific, we all like predictability.
NFL Week 1 usually doesn’t go according to plan. Teams change year to year more than we appreciate, records in one score games and turnover margin are noisy stats that don’t correlate from one year to the next, and NFL teams are closer competitively than we account for.
I expect some big Week 1 surprises in 2022.
“Upset the established order and everything becomes chaos” – The Dark Knight
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee returns most of their team structure from their successful 2021 season. Mike Vrabel holds down the sideline, Ryan Tannehill leads the huddle, Derrick Henry seems fully healthy and the offensive line returns all of their pieces.
So why are prognosticators down on the Titans? The loss of AJ Brown will be huge for this offense. On third downs with Brown, Tannehill recorded a 0.11 EPA/play, and without Brown, -0.07 EPA/play. In other words, when Brown was off the field on 3rd downs, the chances the Titans were going to score went down significantly.
The rest of the receiver room doesn’t wow. Robert Woods is WR1 and he brings a lot of experience to the table. He will likely be the third down go-to guy. Treylon Burks will be asked to contribute immediately and rookies can struggle out of the gate. On the ground, Derrick Henry will once again be asked to shoulder a heavy load.
The Titans shored up the defense this offseason by signing Bud Dupree and drafting DB Roger McCreary early in the second round. Jeffrey Simmons, Zach Cunningham, Kevin Byard and Caleb Farley bring experience to the table as well, but the Titans will severely miss Harold Landry’s pass rush.
The Titans went 6-2 in one score games in 2021 and ended with a near neutral turnover differential. I would expect some regression to the mean, which doesn’t bode well for the Titans W-L column.
New York Giants
Here’s a stat that might blow you away: during Dave Gettleman’s four year tenure, there was not a single day where the Giants were over .500.
Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll look to change that, by bringing the offense into the modern age. The Giants made improvements on the offensive line which should give Daniel Jones a pocket and a chance to succeed. New York was able to get former Chiefs OC Mike Kafka to the same position, albeit as the playcaller. The wide receiving corps is shaky, but Saquon Barkley in a contract year and fully healthy, should be productive.
The Giants were 26th in the NFL in turnover differential. Just by taking care of the ball they should post more points and may improve on their record of 3-3 in one score games.
Wink Martindale, former Baltimore DC, now runs the show for the Giants. He runs a hyper-aggressive defense that uses exotic blitzes and leaves corners in cover 0. The Giants don’t have the corners to run this system effectively and it could lead to a disastrous situation.
Rookie pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and second-year OLB Azeez Ojulari are both likely to miss this contest and that leaves the Giants once again without a pass rush. The LB corps is also weak and will rely on former Mr. Irrelevant, Tae Crowder and journeyman Austin Calitro.
Xavier McKinney leads the safeties and has been tabbed as a breakout candidate. The Giants were also able to pick up veteran Tony Jefferson who will be asked to mop up the mess left behind by the corners.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants’s last 11 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants’s last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee’s last 5 games at home
- Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
4* Free Week 1 NFL Betting Prediction: o43.5
I think the Giants are a much improved team. The offense should be able to move the ball with a better offensive line and playcalling. Their defense doesn’t leave a lot of hope for the start of the year though.
It seems like I’m dumping on the Titans but they’re still an experienced team with a good head coach. Tannehill is a savvy vet and Derrick Henry can make a long day for a defense.
The Titans will win but this game will end up being a lot closer than most people think. I like +5.5 for the Giants but I’ll reduce my risk by taking the over in a game where I feel like both offenses can score.
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Taylor Ginn says
Give this guy a promotion. This was a great read