Free NFL Super Bowl Pick: 49ers vs. Chiefs Odds
Looking for San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs free Super Bowl LVIII picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the 49ers taking on the Chiefs on Sunday, February 11th at the Allegiant Stadium, in Las Vegas, NV. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including for the Super Bowl, so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this San Francisco Kansas City 2024 Superbowl matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Super Bowl
(12-5) San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
2024 Super Bowl LVIII
Date: Sunday, February 11th
Time: 6:30 ET
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas NV
NFL SuperBowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) San Francisco -2 | Kansas City +2
Super Bowl LVIII Moneyline Odds: San Francisco -130 | Kansas City +108
NFL Betting Total: O/U 47.5
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Here we go! The 49ers and Chiefs meet for the fourth time since 2015, with two Super Bowl matchups. Chiefs won in 2020, launching Mahomes’ championship era.
Super Bowl 58 sees the San Francisco 49ers as slight favorites, initially favored by 2.5 points with a total of 47 to 47.5 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Exact Super Bowl LVIII matchup bettors are loving this if they took the 49ers and Chiefs to meet up in Vegas.
In their only head-to-head matchup last season, the Chiefs won by a score of 44-23. Against the spread, the Chiefs covered. The over/under line was going into the game 49 points, which the team surpassed.
In last year’s win, the Chiefs finished with 529 of total offense, with 112 coming in the running game and 417 through the air.
On the other side, the 49ers ended the game with 444 of offense.
In historical matchups, Kansas City holds a slim 8-7 edge over San Fran. The Chiefs seized control of the series in 2022.
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San Francisco 49ers
Entering the Super Bowl, San Francisco is positioned 1st in the NFC-West with a 12-5 record. In the NFC, they are currently in 1st place. Thus far, the 49ers have a 9-9-1 record against the spread.
It’s worth noting that they have been favored in each of their games.
In the 49ers’ win over the Lions, the 49ers controlled the time of possession at 32:12 to 27:48 for the Lions. The 49ers’ offense averaged 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and finished with a total of 413 yards.
Defensively, they gave up 442 yards of offense to the Lions. Even though San Francisco won straight-up, they did not cover the spread as 7.5-point favorites.
Brock Purdy threw for 267 yards while completing 64% of his passes and throwing for 267. Purdy threw for one touchdown.
San Francisco 49ers Stats
On offense, the Lions finished with 33 rushing attempts, and Christian McCaffrey was the leading rusher with 90 yards. In the passing game, Purdy threw the ball 31 times, accumulating 267 yards and a passer rating of 89.
As they enter the Super Bowl, the 49ers offense ranks 2nd in the league, averaging 28.9 points per contest.
The San Francisco defense has 28 takeaways this season, positioning them 4th in the NFL. Overall, they are at 18.4 points per game allowed and giving up an average of 312.6 yards.
Kansas City Chiefs
As they take on the 49ers, the Chiefs will be looking to build on their 11-6 record. This currently places them at 1st in the AFC-West and 3rd in the AFC. Against the spread, the Chiefs have a record of 12-7-1.
In the Chiefs’ win over the Ravens; the Chiefs did a good job moving the ball against the Raven’s defense, finishing with 22 first-downs and racking up 319 yards of offense.
Defensively, the Chiefs allowed a total of 336 yards of offense to the Ravens. Kansas City went into the game as the underdog (+4.5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 241 yards while completing 76% of his passes and throwing for 241. Mahomes threw for one touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Against the Ravens, the Chiefs ran the ball 32 times, with Isiah Pacheco as the primary rusher, accumulating 68 yards. Mahomes attempted 39 passes, amassing 241 yards and a passer rating of 100.
The Chiefs come in with an average of 22 points per game, which is 15th in the NFL.
Defensively, the Chiefs are currently ranked 8th in tackles for loss and 2nd in sacks. Their opponents have been putting up an average of 16.8 points per game against them and accumulating 294.7 yards per contest.
The Chiefs have transformed significantly. They rely on their defense, not high-scoring games, making this their best defensive era under Andy Reid.
With a superior QB and coaching team, expect Mahomes and crew to control possessions and sustain long drives.
The Chiefs offense continues to amaze with their versatility. They limited Miami’s dynamic offense to 7 points on AFC Wild Card Weekend and held Jackson and the Ravens to just 10 points in the AFC Championship.
Their pursuit of a dynasty remains strong as they aim for their third title in the Mahomes/Reid era.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Football Betting Trends
- The 49ers are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the 49ers are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Chiefs have gone 6-3-1 across their last ten home games.
- Over the 49ers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Chiefs have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
49ers vs. Chiefs Line Movement
4* Free Super Bowl LVIII NFL Betting Prediction: Kansas City +2
Even though the 49ers picked up a win in their previous game, they got off to a slow start on offense. We can all agree the Lions certainly helped them win that game. It wasn’t completely earned!
I’ve conducted the research to spare you the effort. In terms of the 2024 Super Bowl point spread and moneyline trends, Kansas City boasts a flawless record. They are 5-0 ATS and SU in their last 5 games, with a 5-1 ATS performance against NFC West opponents.
The Chiefs are undefeated at 5-0 ATS both overall and in playoff games.
On the other hand, the 49ers have struggled with a 0-4 ATS record against winning teams, a 1-5 ATS performance following games with over 150 rushing yards allowed, and a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 games.
In head-to-head matchups against KC, the 49ers are 1-6 ATS and 1-5 SU in their last 7 meetings.
Despite being favored vs. the Chiefs, I like the Chiefs to cover the spread at home (+2).
Examining the 2024 Super Bowl totals trends, notable patterns emerge. 49ers have a 4-0 Over streak after straight-up wins and 6 of their last 9 games went Over.
Additionally, 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against San Francisco hit the Over.
Not only does our model have a projected total of 51 points in this matchup, but the eye test has me feeling this line of 47.5 is low. I like the 49ers and Chiefs to exceed 47.5 points.
It won’t surprise me if both teams score a lot of points in this one.
Chiefs 49ers NFL Handicapping
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
— Super Bowl (@SuperBowl) January 29, 2024
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