Free NFL Divisional Round Pick: Chiefs vs. Bills Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills free Divisional round picks & NFL odds? NFL playoff betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Bills on Sunday, January 21st at the Highmark Stadium, in Orchard Park, NY. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE Divisional NFL predictions like this Kansas City Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Divisional Round
(11-6) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Date: Sunday, January 21st
2024 NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round
Time: 6:30 ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park NY
NFL Divisional Round ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City +2.5 | Buffalo -2.5
Divisional Moneyline Odds: Kansas City +121 | Buffalo -147
NFL Betting Total: O/U 46
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The Bills came out on top with a 20-17 win in their initial matchup against Chiefs. As they entered the game, the Bills were considered underdogs with a +1.5 point spread but managed to secure an ATS win.
The over/under line going into the game was 49.5 points, which the teams fell short of.
In the past four years, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills faced off six times, with each team winning three games.
The Bills won their last two meetings, including one in Week 14, while the Chiefs triumphed in the 2022 and 2021 playoff matchups.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Heading into the Divisional round, Kansas City is in 1st place in the AFC-West with a 11-6 record. Within the AFC, they find themselves in 3rd place. As the underdog, Kansas City has gone 2-0 this season compared to their ATS record of 8-7-1 as the favorite.
At home, the Chiefs are 6-4 ATS and 4-3-1 vs. the spread on the road.
On offense, the Chiefs racked up 409 yards in their 26-7 win over the Dolphins. For the game, the Chiefs ran for 147 yards on an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. Defensively, they allowed 264 yards of total offense with 188 yards coming through the air and 76 on the ground.
Going into the game, Kansas City was favored by 4.5 and went on to cover the spread. Patrick Mahomes threw for 262 yards while completing 56% of his passes and throwing for 262.
Mahomes threw for one touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
Against the Dolphins’ defense, Mahomes led the way with 262 passing yards and a completion rate of 56%. On the ground, the Chiefs ran the ball 34 times for 147 yards. The team had 6 third-down conversions (40%).
Offensively, the Chiefs have an average of 22.1 points per game, which is 15th in the NFL.
On the defensive front, the Chiefs enter the game as the 8th ranked team in tackles for loss and 2nd in sacks. Their opponents are averaging 16.7 points per game against them, along with an average of 288.3 yards per contest.
Buffalo Bills
Looking at the AFC-East standings, the Bills are in 1st place on a record of 11-6. In the AFC, Buffalo is in 2nd place heading into Divisional round. The Bills’ scoring margin for the season is currently +8.6.
This has contributed to their ATS record of 8-10.
In the Bills’ win over the Steelers, the Bills did a good job moving the ball against the Steelers defense, finishing with 24 first-downs and racking up 368 yards of offense.
Defensively, the Bills allowed a total of 324 yards of offense to the Steelers. Going into the game, Buffalo was favored by 10 and went on to cover the spread.
Quarterback Josh Allen threw for three touchdowns and ran for 1 score. Allen completed 70% of his passes for 203 yards.
Buffalo Bills Stats
Offensively, Allen finished with 203 passing yards while completing 70% of his passes. On the ground, the Bills ran the ball 34 times for 179 yards. The team went 5/12 on third down.
For this season, the Buffalo offense has an average of 26.8 points per game, placing them at 6th in the league.
When it comes to yards allowed, the Bills rank 9th in the league, conceding an average of 308.1 yards per contest.
Buffalo’s defense has allowed 18.2 points per game, which has them 4th in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Bills are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bills have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bills’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Bills Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | +124 | +121 | +2.5 | +2.5 |
Bills | -150 | -147 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
4* Free NFL Playoff Betting Prediction: Buffalo -2.5
Mahomes’ first visit to Buffalo was in 2020 when stadiums were empty due to COVID-19, and the Chiefs won 26-17. This time, it’s different. The Bills Mafia awaits as he faces his first playoff road game.
Look for the Bills’ offense to put together a big performance vs. the Chiefs and cover the spread as 2.5-point favorites.
In their most recent game, the Bills put up 368 yards of offense and are projected to have another above-average performance against Kansas City.
If you’re looking for a pick on the over/under, the data we have suggests this game finishing below 46 points.
For this game, my money is on the under.
Chiefs Bills NFL Handicapping
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
Next stop: Divisional Round.#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/HfmOw1x9jC
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 16, 2024
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