Free AFC Conference Championship Pick: Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds
Looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens free AFC Conference Championship picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Chiefs taking on the Ravens on Sunday, January 28th at the M&T Bank Stadium, in Baltimore MD. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NFL Football handicapping picks all season long including all 2024 playoff games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Kansas City Baltimore matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: AFC Conference Championship
(11-6) Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
2024 AFC Championship Game
Date: Sunday, January 28th
Time: 3:00 ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore MD
2024 Conference Championship ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Kansas City +3.5 | Baltimore -3.5
AFC Conference Championship Moneyline Odds: Kansas City +152 | Baltimore -187
NFL Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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In the 2024 AFC Championship, the Kansas City Chiefs (13-6, 11-8 ATS) secured a hard-fought victory, beating the Bills 27-24 on the road as 2.5-point underdogs, marking their sixth consecutive AFC title game appearance.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (14-4, 12-6 ATS) dominated the Houston Texans 34-10 as 10-point favorites in Baltimore to earn their spot in the Championship Game.
The Chiefs and Ravens did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Chiefs have a record of 2-1.
However, against the spread the Ravens went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 2-1 on an average of 62 points per game.
Kansas City holds a 7-5 overall series lead, yet Baltimore secured the sole playoff win with a 30-7 Wild Card victory on January 9, 2011, in KC.
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Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs come into their matchup against the Ravens with a 11-6 record. In the AFC-West, they are 1st and 3rd in AFC overall standings. With a scoring margin of +5.2, the Chiefs’ have achieved an ATS record of 11-7-1 so far.
On offense, the Chiefs racked up 361 yards in their 27-24 win over the Bills. For the game, the Chiefs ran for 146 yards on an average of 6.1 yards per attempt.
Defensively, they allowed 368 yards of total offense with 186 yards coming through the air and 182 on the ground. Kansas City went into the game as the underdog (+2.5), giving them a straight-up and ATS win.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 215 yards while completing 73% of his passes and throwing for 215. Mahomes threw for two touchdowns.
Kansas City Chiefs Stats
In terms of offensive production, Mahomes finished with 215 passing yards with a completion rate of 73%. The Chiefs ran the ball 24 times for 146 yards. The team’s third-down conversion rate was 1/5.
At 22.3 points per contest, the Kansas City offense is 14th in the league.
On defense, the Chiefs are currently positioned 8th in tackles for loss and 2nd in sacks. Against them, opponents are scoring an average of 17.1 points per game and gaining 292.5 yards per contest.
Why The Chiefs Can Win
In my view, The Ravens’ recent home performance has been inconsistent, with a 3-3 ATS record in their last six games. Led by Mahomes, a strong defense, and Andy Reid’s coaching, the Chiefs can keep this game competitive.
Baltimore Ravens
This season, the Ravens hold the 1st position in the AFC-North with an overall record of 13-4.
Their non-conference game record is 5-0, and in AFC action, they are AFC. When it comes to the spread, the Ravens come in at 12-6.
Going into the Conference Championship, their scoring margin per game is +12.6.
In the Ravens’ win over the Texans, the Ravens did a good job moving the ball against the Texans defense, finishing with 22 first-downs and racking up 352 yards of offense.
Defensively, the Ravens allowed a total of 213 yards of offense to the Texans. Going into the game, Baltimore was favored by 10 and went on to cover the spread.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for two touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. Jackson completed 72% of his passes for 152 yards.
Baltimore Ravens Stats
Baltimore’s offense produced a total of 352 yards against the Texans. When it came to third downs, the Ravens had a conversion rate of 33.3%. The leading rusher for the Ravens was Jackson with 100 yards, and he contributed 152 passing yards.
Baltimore’s offense is 2nd in the league, with an average of 28.7 points per contest.
On the defensive front, the Ravens currently hold the 7th position in tackles for loss and rank 1st in sacks.
Opponents are averaging 16.1 points and 296.4 yards per game against them.
Why The Ravens Can Win
In my opinion, the Ravens are scorching their way thru their 2023/24 schedule. Have the even been tested all year? (I kid, I kid) They’re confident.
Behind a formidable defense and an MVP quarterback, they’ve obliterated opponents, including playoff contenders. I believe the Chiefs’ defense can be exploited through the running game, where I feel Baltimore should be expected to have success.
Conversely, running against Baltimore’s defense appears highly challenging, if not impossible. Tough task for KC this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Football Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Chiefs are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Ravens have gone 8-2 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Ravens’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | +141 | +152 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
Ravens | -175 | -187 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
4* Free 2024 AFC Championship Betting Prediction: Baltimore -3.5
In their recent outings, Baltimore has demonstrated impressive form, boasting a 4-1 ATS record in the last five games and a dominant 7-1 SU streak in the past eight.
Additionally, their pretty good at home. 4-1 SU in their last five home games, and they excel when facing AFC opponents, with a 5-1 ATS record, and an undefeated 5-0 straight up record against AFC West teams.
My money is on Baltimore to cover the spread at -3.5 for this matchup. Baltimore had a solid performance in their last game, especially in the running game against Houston.
I believe they’ll maintain that form this week, so I’m betting on Baltimore to cover before kickoff.
Our model sees the over/under line for this matchup being to low and like the outlook of this game surpassing 44.5 points. The betting model spit out this game finishing with a combined 47 points.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games against KC, plus 4 of the Ravens last 5 when playing at home against KC.
Chiefs Ravens NFL Handicapping
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Betting Tweet Of The Day
A blockbuster matchup at the Bank: pic.twitter.com/EL1U8vyuZO
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 23, 2024
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