Free Preseason Week 1 Prediction: Browns vs Jaguars NFL Odds
Looking for Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars free NFL Preseason Week 1 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Browns taking on the Jaguars on Saturday, August 14th at the TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville Florida. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Browns Jaguars matchup.
NFL Handicapping: Preseason Week 1
(0-0) Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Date: Saturday, August 14th
Time: 7:00 PM
Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville Florida
NFL Preseason Week 1 ATS Betting Lines: Cleveland +2
NFL Preseason Week 1 Moneyline Odds: Cleveland +110, Jacksonville -130
NFL Preseason Week 1 NFL Betting Total: O/U 37.5
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The first preseason game of 2021 for both the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars will take place on Saturday.
In 2019, Cleveland went 3-1 in the preseason and Jacksonville went 0-4. The Browns won their first game 30-10 against the Washington Football Team and the Jaguars lost 29-0 against the Baltimore Ravens.
Both teams would finish that season 6-10.
In 2020, Cleveland had a great year at 11-5 while Jacksonville turned the other way with a 1-15 season.
Cleveland is excited about WR Peoples-Jones moving up in the depth chart right behind Landry. He has apparently been unstoppable in training camp and will look to show up in a big way starting this week.
Good players with something to prove is what wins preseason games.
QB Mayfield should have fun with those WR options including Beckham Jr. and Higgins. On the defensive side, new addition Clowney will provide a nice anchor as a DE.
According to Football Insiders’ DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), the team ranked 18th in the league.
This is a measurement of successful plays considering both total yards and yards towards a first down, with extra “points” awarded for big plays.
There is an offensive and defensive component to the stat. Ranking 18th overall with an 11-5 record implies the Browns were a bit fortunate last season.
Defense was not their strong suit in 2020, ranking 25th in defensive DVOA. The Browns knew they needed to get better on defense, so they made a lot of moves in the offseason to do just that.
They acquired CB Hill, S Johnson III, DE Clowney, and LB Walker. Their 1st draft selection was also on the defensive side, CB Newsome II. It would be hard to believe their defense won’t be vastly improved this season.
The key to their success last year was their offense. Cleveland ranked 9rd in offensive DVOA last season and it doesn’t look like they’ll be significantly worse this year.
Mayfield has plenty of targets in WRs Landry, Beckham Jr, Peoples-Jones, and RB Chubb.
Everyone wants to see the first of QB Trevor Lawrence, hopefully Coach Meyer will give us that opportunity. He has supposedly been great in training camp so far.
In 2020, Jacksonville ranked just 27th and 31st in offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, respectively, with a total DVOA of 32nd aka dead last.
They did get the number 1 overall pick with QB Lawrence, but one player (no matter how good) is not going to turn this team into a solid group by himself.
QB Minshew will likely see some action and it’s one area Jacksonville will likely have an advantage over Browns backup QB Keenum.
They will need to get something going on offense because their secondary is young and unproven, and they might end up trading their 2020 first round pick CB Henderson to make matters worse.
NFL Betting Trends:
- Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Browns are 5-5 ATS on the road in 2020.
- Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
- Jaguars are 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- The Under is 5-1 in the last 6 JAX games as a favorite.
- The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 CLE games against AFC.
4* Free NFL Betting Prediction: Cleveland Browns +2
The Browns are the bet in this matchup. The basis of this bet relies on the strong correlation between prior season playoff teams and preseason performance.
We fit that strategy here against a non-playoff team and this trend historically becomes even stronger when taking the underdog.
The underdog in this spot covers the spread at a 61% rate with an 18% ROI and is a moneyline winner 56% of the time with a 28% ROI.
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