Free Week 16 Prediction: Patriots vs. Bills NFL Odds
Looking for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Free NFL Week 16 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees the Patriots taking on the Bills on Sunday, December 26th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 16 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this New England Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 16
(9-5) New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (8-6)
Date: Sunday, December 26th, 2021
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: U.S. Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MS
NFL Week 16 ATS Betting Lines: Patriots -2.5 | Bills +2.5 (Bet Now!)
NFL Week 16 Moneyline Odds: Patriots -140 | Bills +120
NFL Week 16 NFL Betting Total: O/U 43.5
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What is up people! you ready for volume 2 of Bills vs. Pats after Bill Belichik embarrassed them on their home turf by running every single play?! With the above info in mind, let’s dive into this very crucial game for this AFC east rivalry that has major playoff implications.
The last time these two met was in Buffalo two weeks ago where it was freezing cold, windy and snowing (partially). With that in mind Bill and Mcdaniels designed a game plan that had Mac Jones throwing the ball only 3 times. They pounded the rock and did not bail out of it, and the Bills had no answer and ended up losing because of it.
The Bills are coming off a big win at home against the Panthers and now only sit one game back of the Patriots for a share of the lead in the AFC east. They head to Foxboro Sunday seeking a little revenge for the aforementioned home loss they suffered to the Pats.
Jordan Poyer was said on The Pat Mcafee Show Monday that they are absolutely ready for this game and wanting another bite at the apple after not having their greatest performance in the secondary previously and taking some clown questions in the post game presser.
I fully expect the Bills to have a vastly different game plan heading into this one, fully prepared to stop this run game of the Patriots who may be without Damien Harris for a second straight game as he’s listed as questionable as of now with the hamstring pull he suffered at practice.
New England Patriots
The Patriots on the other hand are coming off a loss to the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium where the Colts D were the story of the game. Absolutely buzzing around out there, Leonard getting a pick on rookie Mac Jones in the red zone, and bottling up rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
However, the Patriots looked like a different team in the second half and scored 17 unanswered points to come within 3 of tying the game late. Had it not been for a blown coverage and a certified freak of nature Jonathan Taylor scoring a touchdown on the ensuing drive that just may have.
NFL Betting Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
- Buffalo are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games when playing on the road against New England.
- New England are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games.
4* Free Week 16 NFL Betting Prediction: Patriots -3.0 @ (-105) Under 43.5 @ -110
This is a big fade the public the game for me. 68% of the money is on the Bills spread consensus and 77% is on the over. This is still a game between the #3 Pats D and #8 Bills D, both units are stellar at keeping points on the field and getting offenses off it also.
The Patriots defense is number one in the league in points allowed per game, points per play average and touchdowns allowed per game. They are really tough to beat in both the primary and secondary, they are fast, well coached and worst of all, disciplined. They rarely surrender yards to opponents from penalties which we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Bill’s coaching.
They are also 3rd in the league in takeaways per game, they forced an interception against Wentz last week that fell in the hands of McCourty when Carson felt the hurry up.
The Bills are also a really tough defense to play against. They are without Tre’Davious White but keep an eye on his potential return, but this secondary is still unreal without him.
They rank number in both yards allowed per game and opponents yards allowed per play. Both of these offences are good, the Bills being more capable in the big play ability, and the Patriots being a much more run centric unit. But I expect them to both have a difficult time putting points on the board and taking repeated trips to the red zone.
Ultimately, I just can’t bet against the Patriots at home against an AFC East rival especially in this game that has major playoff implications. I am taking these Pats the win a close one again by possessing the ball longer using the run heavy schemes they optimize every week. Hammer the Pats!
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