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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State +2 v. TCU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
Early action here on Saturday has the Big 12 Championship between Kansas State and TCU. The stakes are even higher than just this game for undefeated TCU. The Horned Frogs are 12-0 and No 3 in the latest College Playoff rankings. A win today and the Frogs will secure a spot in the four team playoff. Kansas State finished 9-3 and looking to avenge their loss to the Frogs earlier this year, 28-38. Kansas State became a better team after losing QB Adrian Martinez to an injury. Will Howard took over this team was better. Kansas State coming in off their win last week over Kansas, 47-27, as a 11.5-point favorite. K State is ranked 40th in the country in total offense. As stated, the stakes can't be any bigger for TCU here today. TCU will contend with one of the best pass defenses as K State allowed just 6.3 yards per attempt. If there is one knock against TCU, it's the fact that they are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on a neurtal site. The Wildcats have covered four of the last five in this series. I'll take a shot with the Cats here today to pull the upset and knock TCU out of the playoff picture. |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -2.5 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
Lots on the line for this PAC-12 Championship game from Allegiant field in Las Vegas. The USC Trojans have their eye set on a playoff bid and they need to get by last year's PAC-12 Champion Utah Utes here tonight. Also, USC QB Caleb Williams has a great shot at the Heisman Trophy award and another great performance here tonight could really help that cause too. This is a rematch of the game from October 15th when the Utes came from behind at home to beat USC, 42-43 as a 3-point dog. The USC offense is ranked 5th overall in the country and they have a 80% red zone efficiency mark with 51 Touchdowns in 67 redzone trips, tops in the nation. Utah isn't too far back, ranked 20th in offense and a rezone efficiency of 76.6%. On the defensive side of the ball Utah much better with the 17th ranked unit compared to the Trojans' 90th ranked defense. USC hasn't won a PAC-12 Championship since 2017, but I think this is the year. The price is right on this game as USC lays 2 1/2 points. Take the Trojans here today. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots +5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 8 m | Show |
Week 13 of the NFL gets underway here on Thursday with a key AFC contest as the Patriots host the Bills. The AFC East one of the best conferences in football as all four teams are above .500 on the year. The Bills are tied for first place at 8-3 with the Miami Dolphins while the Patriots are in last place with a 6-5 record. Buffalo just did get by the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day, 28-25, winning on a late field goal but failing to cover the 9.5-point line. Meanwhile, the Patriots also lost last week at Minnesota, 26-33, as a 2.5-point dog. The Bills have the NFL's third best passing offense, 8th best rushing offense and 2nd best scoring offense. The Bills will be without a key defensive player though as Von Miller (knee) has been ruled out for this game. The Pats had won three straight games and five of their last six before their loss at Minnesota. The Patriots are ranked 6th in scoring defense (21.7 ppg allowed). Both teams battling for the AFC East and AFC playoff picture here tonight. The Bills are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. The Pats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The dog is 5-2-1 ATS their last eight in this series. I like the Patriots here today. In fact, I won't be surprised with a straight up win. Take New England. |
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11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Who would have thought starting the season that at week 12 the Seattle Seahawks would be tied for first place in the NFC West despite the departure of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. But, here they are 6-5 overall and tied with the 49ers. The Rams and Cardinals look out of the race at this point. The Seahawks four-game win streak was snapped two weeks ago at Tampa bay, 16-21, as a 2.5-point road dog. The Hawks had last week off to prepare for today's home game. After a 4-0 preseason, a lot of high expectations were on the Raiders and first year HC Josh McDaniels. But, to say it's been a letdown is going lightly as the Raiders are just 3-7 and tied for the bottom of the AFC West with Broncos. The Raiders did beat the Broncos in Denver last week in OT, 22-16. QB Derek Carr throwing a long TD to Davante Adams for the winning score. That snapped a three game losing streak. The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. The home team has covered seven of the last nine games in this series. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. The weather looks to be typical Seattle here on Sunday with rain and cool temps throughout the contest. It was a big win last week for the Raiders, but I don't see that continuing here this week. I'll take the Seahawks at home. |
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11-27-22 | Bears +7.5 v. Jets | 10-31 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bears are in last place in the NFC North with a 3-8 record. The Bears have lost three straight games, all by three points or fewer including last week at Atlanta, 27-27, as a 2-point dog. The Bears held the Falcons to just 280 total yards, but could muster only 288 themselves. The defense ranks 16th overall while the offense is 22nd. The NY Jets are having an excellent season at 6-4 overall and third place in the AFC East. The Jets were tied with the Pats last week 3-3 before a New England punt return for a TD with just seconds left in the game got them the loss, 3-10 as a 3-point dog. That after their huge win the week before over Buffalo, 20-17. The Jets are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games vs a team with a losing record. The Bears are also 5-0-1 ATS their last six meetings with Jets. The Jets have benched QB Zach Wilson who will miss this game. QB Mike White looks to be the starter here on Sunday with Joe Flacco the backup. The Jets have been using their 8th ranked defense to win games this year. Still, huge change of direction for this Jets team that was 5-2 since Wilson returned from his knee injury. I'll take the Bears here today. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Bengals are in 2nd place in the AFC North with a 6-4 record and just one game back of the Ravens. The Tennessee Titans are in 1st place in the AFC South with a 7-3 record, 3-games ahead of the Colts. The Bengals are coming off a win last week at Pittsburgh, 37-30, covering the 3.5-point favorite line. The Bengals have the 7th best offense in the league and 4th best passing game. The defense is ranked 11th overall. The Titans are coming off a win at Green Bay last week, 27-17, as a 3-point dog. The Titans have covered eight straight games. Their defense is ranked 19th overall and 2nd against the rush. The offense is ranked 29th overall, 11th in rushing. The dog is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings in this series. Not sure why Tennessee is a small home dog here today. But I'll take the points anyways and look for a Titans straight up win. Play Tennessee. |
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11-26-22 | Kansas v. Kansas State -11.5 | 27-47 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
A nice rivalry game here as Kansas State hosts Kansas on Saturday. The Kansas Jayhawks started the season 4-0, but since then have lost five of six games. The Jayhawks are 6-5 and could fall to .500 to finish the season. The Jayhawks are coming off a loss at home to Texas last week, 14-55, as a 9-point dog. In fact, you have to go back week four for the last time the Hawks were installed as a favorite in a game. Kansas has a good offense, ranked 35th overall in the nation. However, it's the defense that has been bad this year, ranked 119th. Kansas hasn't beaten Kansas State in this rivalry in over 10 years. Kansas State is second in the division at 6-2 and looks to need a win here to play TCU for the Big 12 Championship. The Wildcats have won two straight games including last week at West Virginia, 40-31, as a 7.5-point favorite. The Cats are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games and 5-2 ATS their last seven at home. They are also 10-3 ATS their last 13 meetings with Kansas. The Favorite is 9-3 ATS the last 12 meetings. I look for a Kansas State win here on Saturday. |
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11-26-22 | Kent State v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a MAC makeup game after last week's game was cancelled in Buffalo due to the snow storms. Kent State will finish their season here on Saturday as they are just 4-7 and won't be going to a bowl. Buffalo is 5-5 and needs a win to get bowl eligible. Have to wonder what motivation Kent State has here today with nothing on the line. Kent State should have been done last week, but Mother Nature made them go this week instead. The Golden Flashes have not been good on the road, going 5-11 ATS their last 16 games. They are also 1-6 ATS their last seven overall games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games. Buffalo put in this must win situation because they have lost two straight games to Ohio and Central Michigan. This is senior day at Buffalo who sport the 48th ranked offense and 57th best defense. This game is all about motivation, Buffalo has it all today and Kent State just looking to go home and begin their vacation. Take Buffalo. |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +3.5 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
SEC Action here today between 2-5,5-6 Missouri and Arkansas (3-4, 6-5). Missouri can get to that six win mark and make themselves Bowl eligible here today. A loss and they go home. Arkansas snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a win over Ole Miss, 42-27, as a 2.5-point dog. The Hogs offense ranks 19th in the nation, the defense though ranks at 117th. The Missouri Tigers are coming off a win over New Mexico State, 45-14. The Tigers have covered four of the last five against Arkansas in Missouri. In addition, the home team has covered nine of the last 10 times in this series. I'll take Missouri here today as the game means little to Arkansas. |
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11-25-22 | Arizona State v. Arizona -4 | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
Rivalry game here today between Arizona State and Arizona. Arizona State playing its last game of the season today as they sit at 2-6 in conference and just 3-8 overall. Same goes for Arizona who is one spot higher at 2-6 in conference and 4-7 overall. So this is both these teams respective Bowl game and the excitement will be just as high when these two schools clash. Arizona State has lost three straight games after last week's loss at home to Oregon State, 7-31. ASU had just 276 total yards to Oregon State's 443. The offense ranks 79th in the country. Arizona had a huge upset win two weeks ago as they beat UCLA on the road, 34-28 as a 19.5-point dog. Then came back last week and lost at home to Washington State, 20-31 as a 4-point dog. The offense ranks 20th in the country. Arizona State is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. The home team has covered seven of the last nine meetings. I'll stick with the home team here today. Play Arizona U. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
The Vikings really laid an egg last week at home in their loss to the Cowboys, 3-40. They had a paltry 73-yards rushing and 110-yards passing for just 183 total yards. They allowed the Cowboys 458 totals yards. It was a surprising outcome considering the Vikings were 8-1 and in first place in the NFC North at the time. Their status in the North is not in jeopardy though as the 4-6 Lions are the closest team to them. One good thing is that the Vikings are 20-6 ATS the week after they had 150 yards or fewer passing and 21-7 ATS the after a total of 250 yards or fewer. The Vikings still have a good home record against winning clubs, going 16-6 ATS their last 22. The 6-4 Patriots visit Minnesota today. The Pats are tied with the Jets in the AFC East behind both the Dolphins and Bills who sit at 7-3. The Patriots had a punt return for a touchdown with 5 seconds left in the game last week to get the win over the Jets, 10-3, in what was a very windy and cold Foxboro. The defense held the Jets to just 103 total yards in the cold weather. In fact, the defense has now allowed just 103 and 121 total yards the last two weeks and just six combined points. The defense has shot up to fourth in the NFL overall. I really do expect the Vikings to put forth a much better effort here today after that embarrassment on home field last week. I'll take the Vikings here today. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
20th ranked Ole Miss will host their rivals here on Thanksgiving evening, the Bulldogs of Mississippi State. Ole Miss is 4-3 in the SEC West and 8-3 overall and headed to bowl after this game. They won't play for the SEC title as that will fall to either LSU or Alabama. The Bulldogs are 3-4 in the West and 7-4 overall and also headed to a bowl game. Ole Miss has lost two straight games to Alabama and then last week to Arkansas, 27-42, as a 2.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, Miss State had a softball thrown their way in that of East Tennessee State, which they had little trouble with in a 56-7 win. That rebounded them from their 19-45 loss to Georgia the week before. Ole Miss is jut 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five conference games. The road team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series. I'm going to take the small points with the Bulldogs here today. Play Mississippi State. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | 20-28 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
NFC East clash between the 7-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 7-3 NY Giants. The winner takes over sole position of 2nd place in the division, with a chance to pull within one game of 1st place Philadelphia. The NFC East was one of the worst divisions in football and now it's one of the best with the last place Commanders sitting at 6-5 and in prime playoff position. The Giants lost last week at home to the Detroit Lions, 18-31, despite having more yards than Detroit, 413-325. The Giants are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NFC games and 0-4 ATS in their last four vs the NFC East. Dallas rolled to an easy win even though they played on the road at 8-1 Minnesota, easily winning 40-3. Tony Pollard showing he should be a full time #1 running back as he had over 100 yards receiving and let the team in rushing with two pass receiving touchdowns. Even though Ezekiel Elliot is back, it looks like Pollard might get the share of carries and is a prime target for Dak Prescot. The Cowboys have covered three of their last four games. Their lone loss coming in that game at Green Bay two weeks ago where they gave up a 28-14 lead before losing in OT. The Cowboys love playing on the artificial turf, now 20-7 ATS their last 27. They are also 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games vs the NFC East. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS their last 11 vs the Giants and 4-1 ATS their last five at Dallas. Take the Cowboys here on Thursday. |
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11-24-22 | Bills v. Lions +9.5 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bills new home seems to be Detroit's Ford Field. The Bills played here last week as their game was moved from Buffalo do to severe snow storms. The Bills got off to slow start last week but stormed back to beat the Browns, 31-23, covering or pushing the 7.5 or 8-point line. That snapped two straight losses by the Bills to Minnesota and the Jets. The Bills are now tied with the Dolphins in the AFC East for first place with both teams at 7-3. The Patriots and Jets right behind at 6-4. The Lions pulled the improbable win last week at the Giants, winning 31-18 as a 3-point dog. The Lions only had 325 yards to the Giants 413 yards of offense. That was the third straight win for the Lions both S/U and ATS. The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and 6-2 ATS their last eight games vs a team with a winning home record. The dog has covered four of the last five in this series and that's who I am on here today. Play the Lions. |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. Ohio | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
 Mid-week MAC action tonight has Bowling Green taking on Ohio in their final regular season games. The Ohio Bobcats are 1st in the East Division and can clinch with a win tonight that sends them to Detroit for the MAC title game. However, a loss by Ohio tonight and we'll have to wait for Saturday's game between Kent State and Buffalo. Bowling Green has seen great improvement this year. This is a team that was 7-22 the last three years and now they are already bowl eligible with six wins. A win tonight and they pull into a tie with the Bobcats for place in the East. They have won four of their last five games and are 3-0 in the MAC on the road this year. Ohio is led by QB Kuris Rourke and he's questionable tonight with a knee injury. If Rourke doesn't go, then that is bad news for the Cats. With his status in question I'll have to take the points with the Falcons who are a very good team. Play Bowling Green. |
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11-22-22 | Ball State +3 v. Miami-OH | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
 Ball State closing out their regular season here tonight at Miami Ohio. This is a huge game for the Cardinals since a win and they remain Bowl eligible. Ball State is 5-6 overall and needs this week to get to six wins. Ball State lost at home last week to Ohio, which hurt their chances for the bowl season. Also looking to get bowl eligible is Miami Ohio, which is also 5-6 on the season. They need a win here tonight also after setting up this game with last week's win over Northern Illinois, 29-23 on the road. Both teams in must win as the winner is bowl eligible and the loser is done for the season. I'm taking the small points in this contest tonight with Ball State and looking for the Cardinals to win outright. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +1.5 | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 16 m | Show | |
Not too often you can get a 8-1 team as a small home dog. But that's the case here on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys visit Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Vikings just coming off a huge win at Buffalo in OT, 33-30. That after trailing one of the best defensive teams in the league, 10-24 at the half. As for Dallas, the Cowboys led the Packers 28-14 before the Packers came back with 14 points in the fourth quarter to tie the game and then won in OT, 31-28. I'm sorry, but no way the Vikings should be any dog in this game. I'll take this price early on Minnesota. |
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11-20-22 | Bengals v. Steelers +4 | 37-30 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
The Cincinnati Bengals sitting at 5-4 and one game back of the Ravens in the AFC North. They will face last place North team Pittsburgh Steelers here today who are 3-6. The Bengals rebounded from their loss to Cleveland three weeks ago, 13-32, with a nice win two weeks ago at home over Carolina, 42-21. The Bengals had last week off to prepare for today. The Bengals offense ranks 8th overall in the NFL with the passing game at 6th. The defense comes in at 10th overall. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat New Orleans last week at home, 20-10, as a 1.5-point favorite. The Steelers rushed for a season-high 217 yards while holding the Saints to just 186 total yards (29 on the ground). The Steelers defense hasn't been that good all season, ranking 27th overall and 30th vs the pass. Though they have been good at stopping the run (6th). The Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. They are also 22-10-1 ATS their last 33 meetings with the Bengals. I'll take the points at home with the Steelers and look for an outright Pittsburgh win today. |
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11-20-22 | Panthers +13 v. Ravens | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
It's AFC vs NFC here today as the NFC South Carolina Panthers take on the AFC North Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are in first place in the division with a 6-3 record. They lead the Bengals by one game. The Ravens have won three straight games, including two weeks ago at New Orleans, 27-13, as a 1.5-point favorite. The Ravens had last week off. That makes two straight covers for the Ravens. The Ravens are just 3-9-1 ATS their last 13 games following an ATS win. They are also 1-4 ATS their last five games following a bye week. The Panthers made some wholesale changes to their team when they traded Christian McCaffery away to the 49ers. Still, they have been competitive, covering three of the last four. The Panthers also had a bye week last week after beating the Falcons the week before, 25-15, as a 2.5-point dog. The Baltimore defense ranks 19th while Carolina comes in at 25th. The Ravens are 12th on offense while the Panthers are 30-th. These teams last met in 2018 when Carolina won at home, 36-21 as a small dog. Panthers getting around 13-points here today. I believe that might be a bit much though the way the Panthers have been covering spreads. I'll take a shot with Carolina here today. |
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11-20-22 | Browns +8 v. Bills | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bills lose their home stadium here due to the snow issues in the area. The game was moved to Detroit's covered stadium on artificial turf. Buffalo coming off two straight losses, last week they had the lead and couldn't hold on against Minnesota, 30-33, losing in OT as a 6.5-point favorite. The week before they lost to the Jets in New Jersey, 17-20. That makes three straight spread losses for the Bills. Granted, QB Josh Allen has been battling some injuries here of late. Buffalo still has the league's top rated offense overall and the 8th ranked defense. The Browns expect QB Deshaun Watson to start here today after his suspension was finally over. Jacoby Brissett has been good in the QB role though, so should be interesting to see which way they go today. Cleveland looks to bounce back after losing last week at Miami, 17-39, as a 3.5-point dog. That coming after their big win over the Bengals the week before, 32-13. The move has to hurt the Bills more than the Browns here today. I'll take the TD+ today with the Browns. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
The NY Jets might be the most surprising team this year with their 6-3 record and just one game behind the Miami Dolphins for the lead in the AFC East. But in the competitive East division all the teams are bunched up with the last placed Patriots at 5-4 and just two games back of first place. That makes a game like this today so important to both teams. Especially when you have the 6-3 Bills in the mix of things. The Jets coming off the big upset last week of the Bills, 20-17, as a 10.5-point dog. The Jets have now covered five of their last six games. The Jets have also had a very good defense, ranked 7th in the NFL. The Patriots coming off a win last week over the Colts, 26-3. They have also covered five of their last six games. The Patriots defense is 12th in the league. The Jets have an edge on offense where they are 18th in the league compared to the Patriots at 26th. I expect a close game here on Sunday. Neither team will run away with this one so the line is important. I'll take the points with a Jets team that can easily win outright. Play the NY Jets. |
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11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Late and last game on the board here on Saturday has a Mountain West clash with UNLV playing at Hawaii. UNLV started the season 3-0 and since has gone 1-6. They need to win out their last two games tonight at Hawaii and then at home vs Nevada to be 6-6 on the season and maybe a shot at a bowl game. Hawaii coming off a loss last week at home to Utah State, 34-41, covering the 11.5-point dog line. The Rainbow Warriors have covered five of their last six games, though they are just 3-8 S/U mark. The Warriors will close out their season next week at San Jose State. The Rebels have done well covering spreads, going 10-4 ATS their last 14 games and 4-1 ATS their last five on the road. The problem I have here is that UNLV laying 11-points. They are not the type of team to cover big spreads as a favorite and Hawaii has done well vs the number, especially at home. I'll take a shot here with Hawaii plus the double digit points. |
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11-19-22 | USC v. UCLA +2.5 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
Huge rivalry game here as No 7 USC travels the short distance across town to take on UCLA at the Rose Bowl. USC is in 1st in the PAC-12 standings with a 7-1 conference record and 9-1 overall mark. No 16 UCLA is 5-2 in PAC-12 play and 8-2 overall. USC enters those final two games of the season that always including UCLA and then Notre Dame, so no easy games for the Trojans. USC's only loss this season coming bac, on Oct 15 as Utah came from behind to nip the Trojans, 43-42. UCLA coming off a loss last week at home against Arizona, 28-34, as a huge 19.5-point favorite. It's obvious that the Bruins looked past Arizona to this game this week. They close out the regular season at Cal next week. UCLA beat USC last year in big fashion, 62-33 as a 5-point road dog. That makes UCLA 3-2 ATS the last five meetings. USC is just 6-14-2 ATS their last 22 road games vs a team with a winning home record. They are also 2-5 ATS their last seven road games overall. UCLA is 8-2 ATS their last 10 conference games and 5-2 ATS their last seven overall. UCLA a small home dog here but I look for them to win this game outright before a packed house of rabid fans at the Rose Bowl. Take UCLA. |
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11-19-22 | Iowa +3 v. Minnesota | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Big 10 West is wide open for a winner between four teams and two of them meet here today as 4-3 Iowa takes on 4-3 Minnesota. Both teams heading to bowls no matter what happens. Iowa has the third best defense in college football. It's the offense that has had troubles this season as they rank only 129th. Iowa has won three straight since losing to Ohio State, that includes last week over Wisconsin, 24-10, as a 1.5-point dog. Minnesota has won three straight games, including last week over Northwestern, 31-3. After Iowa they close out at Wisconsin the final week. Iowa is 5-0-1 ATS their last six meetings with Minnesota. They are also 4-1 ATS their last five games at Minnesota. I like this defense of Iowa and as a dog here today they should be right in it until the end. Play Iowa. |
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11-19-22 | Western Kentucky +5.5 v. Auburn | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky down to its final two games of the regular season. The Hilltoppers are 6-5 and looking to make it to a bowl with a win in one of the two final games. After Auburn this week they will travel to Florida Atlantic for their final regular season game. Auburn having an off season likely isn't going anywhere this bowl season. The Tigers are just 2-5 in the SEC West and 4-6 overall. They are coming off a narrow win last week at home over Texas A&M, 13-10, as a 2-point home favorite. The Auburn defense ranks only 74th overall this season while Western Ky is 60th. Meanwhile, W.Ky has one of the better offenses in the country, ranked 14th. Western is 7-1 ATS their last eight vs a team with a losing record and 19-7-1 ATS their last 27 road games. Auburn is 2-6 ATS their last eight road games and 0-6 ATS their last six vs a non-conference team. I'm taking Western Kentucky here on Saturday as they still have a bowl berth to play for. |
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11-19-22 | Texas v. Kansas +9.5 | Top | 55-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
Big 12 action here on Saturday has Texas (6-4, 4-3) taking on Kansas (6-4, 3-4). TCU has the conference wrapped-up at 7-0, but after that only one game separates the next four teams. Texas coming off a loss at home to TCU last week, 10-17, as a 7-point favorite. The Longhorns finish up at home next week vs Baylor. Kansas lost at Texas Tech last week, 28-43 as a 4-point dog. The Jayhawks will finish up at Kansas State next week. Texas just 4-10 ATS their last 14 games in the Big 12. They are also 2-5 ATS their last seven road games. Kansas 5-0-1 ATS their last six home games and 10-2-1 ATS their last 13 overall games. Kansas has also covered the last five vs Texas. The dog is also 5-0 ATS the last five meetings. Kansas getting almost 10 points looks like a gift to me. I'll take Kansas plus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Illinois +17.5 v. Michigan | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
 Big 10 clash here on Saturday between two of the best defenses in the nation. Illinois is 2nd in the nation in overall defense, right behind No 1 Michigan. Both teams also have excellent redzone efficiency levels of less than 60%. Illinois is 7-3 overall on the season. The Illini are tied for 1st with Purdue, Iow and Minnesota in the Big 10 West, all with 4-3 conference records. Michigan and Ohio State are tied at 7-0 in the Big 10 East and meet next week in the final regular season game to likely determine the winner of the East and trip to the Big 10 Championship. Have to wonder if the Wolverines have their eyes set to next week on Ohio State. Yes, Illinois is very good, but the aren't quite in the league of Michigan. Michigan coming off an easy win last week over Nebraska, 34-3. Illinois is 9-4 ATS their last 13 games and 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. The Wolverines are good though, going 12-3-1 ATS their last 16 conference games. The Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS their last seven games against Michigan and the dog is 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings. I have to believe that Michigan looking to next week vs the Buckeyes. I'll take the big points here with a very good defensive Illinois team. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan +7.5 v. Kent State | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
With Toledo losing last night, Eastern Michigan still can't take the AMC West because they still trail the Rockets by two games and lost to them a few weeks ago. Toledo is 5-2 and Eastern is right behind at 3-3. Eastern Michigan finishes with Central Michigan next week. Still, looks like Eastern can make a bowl game as they really only need one win in these last two weeks. Eastern beat Akron last week, 34-28, as a 7-point road favorite. Kent State beat Bowling Green last week, 40-6 and after tonight they finish at Buffalo. The Golden Flashes are in 4th in the MAC East with a 3-3 record and 4-6 overall record. Doesn't look good for the flashes to make a bowl game this year either. Still, not sure how they are a TD favorite here tonight against an equal or better Eastern Michigan team. More on the line for Eastern here tonight so I'll take the points. Play Eastern Michigan. |
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11-15-22 | Bowling Green +17 v. Toledo | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Bowling Green still with a chance to be Bowl eligible at 5-5 overall on the season. They are also 3-6-1 ATS. The Falcons are coming off a loss at home to Kent State, 6-40. The Falcons gave up 201 yards rushing and 214 yards passing. Toledo leads the MAC West with a 7-3 record. The are coming off a win last week over Ball State, 28-21, failing to cover the 13.5 point spread. Bowling Green is just 7-15 ATS their last 22 conference games and 1-3-1 ATS their last five road games. They have also not played well in November, going 2-10 ATS their last 12 in this month. Toledo is 7-3-1 ATS their las 11 vs Bowling Green. I'll take the Rockets here tonight as they look to win the West |
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11-14-22 | Commanders +11 v. Eagles | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Washington Commanders are in last in the NFC North with a 4-5 record. THey have the bad luck of playing in what is arguable the best division in football as the other three teams are at least 6-2 in their records. Washington coming off a game they know they could have won last week as they hosted Minnesota and lost, 17-20. The Vikings have the 2nd best record in the NFL and came within minutes of winning that contest. That makes the team 3-1 their last four games all with QB Carson Wentz out. Wentz will again miss tonight's contest with that finger issue. That means Taylor Heinicke will once again be at the helm. For me, I would rather have Heinicke at QB instead of Wentz. For me he's led this team and has performed better. The Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the NFL right now with the only perfect record at 8-0. They lead the Giants by 1.5 games right now in the NFC East. The Eagles are coming off a win over Houston last week, 29-17, but they failed to cover the 14-point spread. Still, they are 5-3 ATS overall on the season. The Eagles have the NFL's third best offense and third best defense. Washington is 21st in offense and 14th in defense. The dog is 3-1-1 ATS the last five games in this series. I expect the Washington defense to keep them close and Heiniecki to play well enough to cover this spread. Take the double digit points with Washington. |
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11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -6 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 58 m | Show |
Have to wonder if Raiders HC Josh McDaniels is on a short leash with his job these days. The Raiders led the Jacksonville Jaguars by 17-points, the second time this year they have blown a 17-point lead. And of course, lost to the Jags last Sunday, 20-27. Have to wonder how many big leads the Raiders can blow before the top of Mark Davis' head blows off. Well, this might be the week for the Raiders to get well. If there was one coach and team that has done worse it has been the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a very lackluster performance last week in their loss at New England, 3-26. In fact, it was the last straw for Colts HC Frank Reich who was fired after the game. The Colts named Jeff Saturday interim coach for the rest of the season. I believe the Colts have given up on the season and while the Raiders have blown leads, at least they have the offensive weapons to get leads. The Colts have no one right now, not even running back Jonathan Taylor who missed last weeks game with an ankle injury. Get on this one early as I only see the Raiders line going up. Play LV Raiders. |
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11-13-22 | Saints v. Steelers +1 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
 The New Orleans Saints are 3-6 overall on the season and in third place in the NFC South. The Saints are coming off a home loss to the Ravens, 13-27. The Saints are now just 3-6 vs the spread on the season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-6 overall and in last place in the AFC North. The Steelers are coming off a loss to instra-state rival Philadelphia, 13-35. The Saints are 6th in the NFL in total offense while the Steelers are 28th. The Saints are also 11th on offense with the Steelers 29th. Still, though the Saints are not having a good season. The Steelers did have last week off to rest and get ready for today. Both teams had poor first halves of the season and both played the Bengals and Bucs. The Steelers beat both those teams while the Saints lost to both. With the week off to prepare and maybe seeing the return of NFL Defensive player of the Year, TJ Watt, I'm taking the Steelers here today. |
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11-13-22 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Chiefs | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
The Jacksonville Jaguars may only be 3-6 in the NFL but they have put scares into some teams this year. The Jags went on the road at beat Vegas last week, 27-20. They just lost to Denver the week before, 17-21 and New York Giants the week before that , 17-23. They have the 8th ranked offense, 7th ranked rushing attack in the league. Kansas City is 6-2 on the season and one game ahead of the LA Chargers for first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs are the only team in the West with a plus point differential (+57). The Chiefs are coming off a home win last week over Tennessee, 20-17, but failing to cover the 14-point favorite line. The Chiefs have the 2nd ranked offense in the league and top ranked passing attack. The Chiefs are now 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs the AFC and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Not covering at home shows how over valued the oddsmaker has made them at home this season. And today I believe they are laying too many points once again. Play Jacksonville. |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
AFC Clash here on Sunday between the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are in the most competitive division in football with the Bills, Jets and Patriots, just 1.5 games separate first from last. The Dolphins are a half game in second place with a 6-3 record. Miami won on the road last week at Chicago, 35-32. It was the team's third win in a row after losing to Minnesota four weeks ago. The Dolphins have the fifth best offense in the league and the 22nd best in defense. The Browns are 15th in defense and fourth in offense thanks to their 3rd ranked rushing offense. The Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games vs a team with a winning home record while Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 1-4 ATS their last five games vs a team with a losing record. I think this game will come down to the final minutes and I will take the points in this one. Play Cleveland. |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NFC North contest here as last place Detroit Lions (2-6) takes on the next to last place Chicago Bears (3-6). In the North, only the Vikings have a winning record at 7-1 and 4.5-games in first place. The Lions are coming off a improbable win over Green Bay last week, 15-9. Despite having the worst defense in the NFL, the Lions held the Packers to just nine points and picked-off Aaron Rodgers twice in the end zone. The Bears are coming off a loss at home to Miami, 32-35, though they covered the four-point dog line. The Chicago defense is a bit better at 18th in the NFL. The Bears offense ranks 24th while the Lions come in at 7th. The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS their last five home games. The Bears have are also 4-1-1 ATS their last six meetings with the Lions at Chicago. Small home favorite in Chicago, I'll lay the price here with the Bears. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 1 m | Show | |
These teams playing the first ever game in Germany on Sunday get the early start at 6:30 PT / 9:30 am ET. Who would have figured the Seattle Seahawks to be in first place in the NFC West with the defending champion Rams and the 49ers. But, they are and they are 1.5-games ahead of the Niners with a 6-3 record. Everyone kind of figured the departure of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos would mean this was a rebuilding period for Seattle. However, Geno Smith has come in and actually played better than Wilson has for the Broncos. Another anomaly is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-5 with Tom Brady. But would you believe they are tied for first place in the horrible NFC South? Every team in the division has a sub-.500 record this year. Tom Brady has not looked his old self this year, but part of that is due to injuries to his receivers. The Bucs have the 19th ranked offense and last place rushing offense. They average a paltry 61 yards this year on the ground. Seattle's offense ranks 11th overall and 9th in rushing. Tampa Bay does have the 9th ranked defense, but it was much higher earlier in the season and has steadily declined week by week. Tampa Bay hasn't covered a spread since week 2 of the season vs the Saints. Since then they have gone 0-6-1 ATS. Seattle playing well, they cover spreads and don't look out of sync like the Bucs. Yet, Tom Brady gets the bettors and here the Bucs are a 3-point favorite. Not sure how that happened, but I won't look a gift horse in the mouth. I'll take the points with Seattle. |
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11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
A pair of ACC Atlantic teams meet here on Saturday as Clemson hosts Louisville. Clemson is ranked 10th in the nation and is 6-0 and will win the ACC Atlantic with a date for the Conference Championship game. Louisville is 3-3 and in 5th in the Atlantic. The Cardinals have won four straight games both S/U and ATS, including last week over James Madison, 34-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. They are ranked 44th in offense and 29th in defense. Clemson is 8-1 S/U and 4-4 ATS on the season. The Tigers Have Miami Fl and South Carolina left after today. Clemson has the 61st ranked offense and 27th ranked defense. The Tigers coming off that loss last week at Notre Dame, 14-35 to break-up their undefeated season. Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games. I'm taking the points here today with Louisville. |
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11-12-22 | Rutgers +10.5 v. Michigan State | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
 Big 10 action here has Rutgers traveling to Lansing, MI to play the Spartans of Michigan State. Rutgers has lost two straight games, including last week at home to Michigan, 17-52, as a 26-point dog. Rutgers is 4-5 and if they hope to go to a bowl game they have a hill to climb with their remaining games at Michigan State and Maryland and a home game vs Penn State. Meanwhile Michigan State coming off a home win last week over Auburn, 39-33. That snapped a two-game losing skid for the Spartans. Michigan State could be in a look ahead situation here on Saturday. They have no desire to play Rutgers. Instead they have their sights set on next week's showdown at home with Georgia. Rutgers could sneak in under the spread here today if they can catch this Spartans team flatfooted. Take Rutgers |
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11-12-22 | Notre Dame v. Navy +17 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
We all know that Notre Dame is the far better team here on Saturday then Navy. Notre Dame has won three straight games, including last week's big win over previously undefeated Clemson, 25-14. However, it's that last week game that I believe will be their undoing this week. The Irish won that emotional game and now have to go to Baltimore to face the Middies. Navy is 5-0 ATS in their last five vs a team with a winning record. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 in November. I feel the Irish are in for a big letdown here today. I think they will squeak by but can't cover this big line. Play Navy. |
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11-12-22 | LSU v. Arkansas +4 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The SEC once again the class conference in college football with four teams in the top 10. One of those, the 10th ranked LSU Tigers hope to be in the SEC Championship game as they sit in 1st place in the West division with a 5-1 conference record and 7-2 overall mark. Arkansas is 5th in the West with a 2-3 conference record and 5-4 overall mark. These teams met last year in LSU with the Razorbacks winning the game 16-13. LSU ranked 31st on offense and 42 on defense. Arkansas is 10-4-1 ATS the lst 15 overall meetings between these teams and 5-2 ATS the last seven in Arkansas. I'll take the home team here, play Arkansas. |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
 East Carolina looks for the upset here on Friday night and also to extend their win streak to five games. ECU Pirates are 6-3 overall and 3-2 in the AAC. They had last week off after beating BYU the previous week, 27-24. Cincinnati struggled against Navy last week but came away with the 20-10 win, improving their record to 7-2 overall and 4-1 in conference. The Pirates looking for a good bowl game berth has been competitive all season long, even in their losses. The Bearcats of Cincinnati has the 64th ranked rushing attack with 141 yards per game. I'm looking for the upset here tonight with Cincinnati. |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa +7 v. Memphis | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Tulsa not going to any bowls this year as they sit 3-6 overall on the season and near the bottom of the AAC with a 1-4 record. Memphis not much better at 2-4 in conference and 4-5 overall. The Tigers do have a shot at a postseason shot. Memphis looking to snap a two game losing streak including last week's loss at home to Central Florida, 28-35. The Memphis offense is good, ranked 45th overall in the FBS. Tulsa right behind them at 50th in the country. Both teams close on defense too, with Tulsa at 90th and Memphis at 97th. Tulsa also looking to snap a two-game losing streak including last week's home loss to Tulane, 13-27. Tulsa is 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight November games. Memphis is 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four November games. They are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 overall games. The Road team has covered seven of the last 10 in this series and the Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Memphis. I'll take the points here tonight with Tulsa. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan -2.5 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
 Buffalo in the thick of things in the MAC East division as they trail first place Ohio by just one game at 4-1 and are tied with Bowling Green who also plays tonight. The Bulls are comijng off a loss to that first place Ohio team last week, 24-45 as a 3-point favorite.That loss last week was their only loss vs the spread versus seven spread wins. The Bulls have the 77th ranked offense and 88th ranked defense in the country. Central Michigan is fourth in thee MAC West with a 2-3 record an 3-6 overall mark. They are coming off a nice win last week at Northern Illinois, 35-22, as a 4-point dog. Just three games left on the schedule with Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan left to go. The Chippewas have the 50th ranked defense and the 68th ranked offense. Central really likes playing these early week games, going 14-1-1 ATS their last 16 games on Wednesday. They are also 5-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record. Central Michigan is a small favorite here tonight and the favorite has covered the last four in this series. I'll take Central tonight. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
 Ball State and Toledo are 1-2 in the MAC West as they battle it out for the right to go to the MAC Championship. Ball State is one game back of Toledo and a win here tonight by the Cardinals would put them in a tie for the MAC West. Ball State beat Kent State last week, 27-20 as a 7-point road dog. Ball State has the nation's 67th ranked offense and the 87th ranked defense. The Cardinals are now 10-4 ATS their last 14 games on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Toledo is coming off a road win two weeks at Eastern Michigan, 27-24, as a 7.5-point favorite. After Ball State tonight, the Rockets have a home game vs Bowling Green and then close out the regular season vs Western Michigan. The Rockets had last week off and they are 5-17 ATS their last 22 times they are coming off a bye week. Ball State has covered seven of the last eight meetings in Toledo and the road team has covered 11 of the last 14 overall meetings. I'll take Ball State here tonight. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
 The Baltimore Ravens are in 1st place in the AFC North, a half game ahead of the Bengals. A win tonight and they are 1-game in front, a loss and they are tied. The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Monday night games. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs a team with a losing record. The NFC South New Orleans Saints are 3-5 and a win tonight puts them in a three way tie with the Bucs and Falcons in a very weak division. The Ravens have won two straight games after last week's win over the Bucs, 27-22 as a 2-point dog. That break a three-game spread skid by the Ravens. The Saints are coming off a dominating performance last week over the LV Raiders. They held the Raiders very good rushing game to just 38 yards and 183 total yards. They sacked QB Derek Carr four times. The Ravens have the 10th ranked offense in the league, 2nd rushing. The Saints have the 5th ranked offense in the league. The Baltimore defense is 24th and the Saints come in at 10th. The Ravens will be without a key target in this game, TE Mark Andrews who is out with a shoulder injury. They may also be without RB Gus Edwards who is doubtful with a hamstring. I like the home team here though the line is too small. I'll take New Orleans to win the game. |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
NFC West Clash here on Sunday has the 5-3 and 1st place Seahawks taking on the 3-5 and last place Cardinals. No one ever expect much out of the Seahawks after Russell Wilson departed in the offseason for Denver. But here they are with Geno Smith at QB and the 7th top rated QB the season. Smith ranks high than both Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow at this point. The Hawks are coming off a win over the Giants last week, 27-13 and have covered three straight games. The Hawks have the 12th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense. The Seahawks have also gone over in four of their last five road games. There were high hopes in Arizona starting the season, however they find themselves in last place right now, though a big win today would close that gap greatly. The Cards are coming off a loss at Minnesota last week, 26-34, as a 4-point dog. They have now lost three of their last four games. Arizona is also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs a team with a winning record. In addition they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games and 0-5 ATS in their last five vs the NFC West. The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games in Arizona and the road team is 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 in this series. I'm taking the Seahawks here on Sunday. |
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11-06-22 | Colts +5.5 v. Patriots | 3-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Longtime rivals meet up here in Foxboro, MA on Sunday as the Patriots host the Colts. Colts will start QB Sam Ehlinger today. The Colts are 3-4-1 and the Patriots are 4-4. Matt Ryan was benched in favor of Ehlinger who looks to be in that role for the rest of the season. The Colts also fired offensive coordinator Marcus Ryan and traded reserve RB Nyheim Hines to the bills for Zach Moss and a draft pick. So things are changing in Indy. The Colts trying to improve on an offense that was ranked just 18th overall. The Patriots are coming off a win at the Jets last week, 22-17, despite giving up 336 yards through the air. The Patriots have been changing QB's too, in was Mac Jones then came Bailey Zappe. Now Jones is back behind center. Jones was at the helm of their win over the Jets. Not sure the Patriots should be laying almost a TD to anyone at this juncture. Their offense ranks just 20th overall and 23rd in passing. Even the Colts offense has been better overall this year. I'll take the points in this one and expect a close finish. Play Indianapolis. |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Vikings are 6-1 on the season and cruising in the NFC North with a 3.5 game lead over the Packers and Bears. The Vikes only loss of the season coming at the hands of undefeated Philly, 7-24 in week 2. The Vikings offense is 15th overall in the league, 20th rushing. Surprisingly, the defense ranks just 28th overall, though 9th vs the rush. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the NFC. The Washington Commanders will once again be without QB Carson Wentz, who will miss another game with a injured finger. QB Taylor Heinicke will make his third start of the season. Heinicke is 2-o in that role, having beaten the Packers 23-21 and then last week over the Colts, 17-16. That makes three straight wins and covers for the Commanders. For me, I think I would rather have Heinicke at QB then the way Wentz had played. Washington was 2-4 under Wentz. The Washington offense still ranks just 22nd overall with the defense coming in at 13th. The dog has covered eight of the last 11 meetings in this series. Moreover, I actually like this Washington team more with Wentz out. I'll take the points here today. Play Washington. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers v. Falcons +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
The LA Chargers coming off a home loss two weeks ago to the Seattle Seahawks, 23-37, as a 4.5-point favorite. The Chargers had last week off to get over some injuries, however they are still hurting coming into this game. Star WR Keenan Allen will miss another game with a hamstring injury. Also out is their top WR in Mike Williams who has a ankle injury. That leave QB Herbert with his top two wide receivers out of the game. The Chargers offense is ranked 8th, but 27th rushing and 4th passing. That means the loss of those wide outs will put even more stress on a poor rushing game. The Chargers defense is ranked 20th, 27th vs the rush. The Falcons have surprised many this year as they are 4-4 on he season and 6-2 vs the spread. The Falcons are coming off a home win against Carolina, 37-34, though they failed to cover the 4-point favorite spread. The Falcons are only 25th on offense, though they have one of the better rushing attacks, ranked 5th overall. Defense has been a problem though, ranked 31st in the NFL, with the worst passing defense (32nd) allowing 307 yards per game. If the Chargers had their top WR's this might be a issue, though today not as much. Atlanta has been very competitive this year. Getting a field goal at home is more than enough for me to take them today. Play Atlanta. |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins v. Bears +4 | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
The Miami Dolphins have won two straight games after dropping three straight. This includes last week over Detroit, 31-27, just covering the 3.5 point favorite line. The Miami offense ranks 7th overall and third in passing. This despite missing QB Tua for a few games with that concussion. The defense isn't as good, ranking 23rd overall, though 6th vs the rush. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Chicago Bears came off their win at New England two weeks ago, 33-14, with a loss at Dallas last week, 29-49. They gave up 200 yards rushing to a Dallas team that was without Ezekiel Elliot. These teams have only met once in the last five years and that was Miami win 31-28 at home back in 2018. The Bears offense ranks just 27th overall, though they have the league's top rushing attack with 189 yards per game. The defense ranks a bit better at 15th overall and 5th vs the pass. This looks to come down to the Miami rush defense vs the Chicago ground game. I'll take the points at home with the Bears. Play Chicago. |
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11-05-22 | Clemson -3.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
No 4 Clemson heads to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish here on Saturday evening. The Clemson Tigers have been a good road team to bettors, going 20-8 ATS in their last 28 away games. Clemson is coming off a home win over Syracuse, 27-21, but failed to cover the 13-point line. The Tigers are 8-0 S/U and 4-3 ATS on the season. Notre Dame is coming off a win over Syracuse, 41-24, covering the 2.5-point dog line. The Irish are now 5-3 S/U and 4-4 ATS on the season. With Navy, BC and USC left on the schedule, the Irish should only need to two games to head to another bowl game. Clemson has the 47th ranked offense and the 26th ranked defense. Notre Dame has the 78th ranked offense and 27th ranked defense. The Irish are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Might be one of the best games on Saturday and I will be laying the points on the road with the Tigers. Take Clemson. |
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11-05-22 | Texas -2.5 v. Kansas State | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Big 12 action here today has No 24 Texas taking on No 13 Kansas State. The Texas Longhorns are 5-3 S/U and ATS this season. They had last week off to prepare for today's contest. They lost the week before at Oklahoma State, 34-41 as a 3.5-point dog. The Texas offense is very good, ranked 30-th overall with the defense coming in at 62nd. Texas has won and covered the last two seasons in this series, including last year at home, 22-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas State had a huge shut-out win last week at home over Oklahoma State, 48-0. The Wildcats held Ok State to just 217 total yards and forced three turnovers. K State is now 6-2 S/U and 5-3 ATS on the season. They finish the season at Baylor and West Virginia before closing out at home vs Kansas. Should be a good matchup here on Saturday, but I'll take the visitors in this one with Texas. |
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11-05-22 | BYU v. Boise State -8 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
BYU looked pretty good as the season got underway, starting out at 4-1. However, a week six loss to Notre Dame, 20-28, seemed to start a downhill slide that has seen the Cougars lose four straight games to now be 4-5 and possibly losing a bowl bid. They only have three games left and two are tough road games at Boise today and their final at Stanford. They do have a softball against Dixie State in between. The Cougars rank 64th on offense and 103rd on defense. Meanwhile, Boise State is 6-2 S/U and 5-2 ATS on the season. The Broncos have won four straight games and covered those four also. They are coming off a big win over Colorado State, 49-10. The offense ranks 94th while the defense is 2nd in the nation. I don't see this lackluster BYU offense being able to put up much against the Boise State 2nd ranked defense today. BYU hasn't covered any of their last seven games and 0-5 ATS their last five non-conference games. I'll take Boise here today to hand BYU their bowl berth death sentence. Take Boise State. |
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11-05-22 | Michigan State v. Illinois -16 | 23-15 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
Big 10 game here on Saturday has Michigan State taking on the fighting Illini at Illinois. The Spartans are coming off two straight losses in which they were outscored 23-57. The Spartans had been producing big up until these last two games, scoring 39 or more points in five of their six games and going 5-1 S/U and ATS. The Michigan State offense, despite all those points, still ranks just 110th overall and the defense at 107th. They are 1-5 ATS their last six games and 1-4 ATS their last five Big 10 games. They also have not covered any of their last five road games. Now they face the nation's top ranked defense in Illinois. In addition, the Illini have one of the best redzone efficiency ratings at just 42.9% on defense. The defense has allowed just three TD's all season in the redzone. They have also held seven of their eight opponents to 14 points or fewer and five of their eight to nine points or fewer. They are coming off a win at Nebraska, 26-9, as a 7-point favorite. Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games. The favorite has covered seven of the last 10 in this matchup and I don't see the Spartans offense getting many points at all here today. Take Illinois. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Georgia | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
We get to see a preview of what could be a playoff matchup here as AP No 2 Tennessee takes on AP No 1 Georgia on Saturday. One of these teams will fall from the undefeated here on Saturday as both sit at 8-0. In the College playoff Rankings Tennessee is No 1 and Georgia No 3. This likely is the last hurdle for Tennessee with Missouri, South Carolina and Vandy remaining on the regular season schedule. Georgia still has to get by a couple of tough road games in Mississippi State and Kentucky. These are the top two offenses in the nation with Tennessee ranked first and Georgia ranked second. Georgia has the better defense, ranked 4th while Tennessee is ranked 82nd. You can really make a case for either team here on Saturday. What sways my decision is that Tennessee gets over a TD here today at around +8 or +8.5 points. That's too much for me to pass on with this top ranked offense. Take Tennessee. |
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11-05-22 | North Carolina -7 v. Virginia | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
The North Carolina Tar Heels once again a force to be reckoned with on offense as they have scored at least 27 points in all eight games this season. They are coming off a home win over Pitt last week, 42-24, covering the 3.5-point line. The Pitt offense ranks 61st overall in the nation with the defense ranked 38th. The Tar Heels are 7-1 S/U and 4-3-1 ATS on the season. Virginia has had offensive struggles of late, not scoring more than 17 points in each of their last four games. During that span they are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS. Overall, the Cavaliers are 2-6 S/U and 2-5-1 ATS overall on the season. The Cavs would have to win out to have a shot at a bowl game and that will be tough with NCS in their path today. The Virginia offense is 92nd in the country with the defense at 30th. Virginia is also 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The favorite has covered five of the last six in this series and I look for NCU to have little trouble with the Cavaliers today. Play North Carolina. |
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10-30-22 | Titans v. Texans | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
AFC South matchup here on Sunday between 1st place Tennessee (4-2) and last place Houston (1-4-1). The Titans won their fourth straight game last week at home vs the Colts, 19-10. Both offenses didn't do much with Tennessee having 254 total yards and the Colts 293. Houston won their first game of the season on Oct 8th vs the Jaguars, 13-6, then had the next week off before traveling to Las Vegas last week and getting beat, 20-38. The Texans gave up 400 total yards, 164 on the ground. The Texans have been competitive though vs the number, going 3-2-1 ATS this season. They are also 4-1 ATS their last five games vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS their last eight vs the AFC. The Houston Texans now have the worst defense in the NFL, allowing 412 yards per game. They are ranked last vs the rush and 21st vs the pass. No wonder the Raiders ran wild on them last week. Tennessee ranks 26th on defense with the fourth best rushing defense and 31st ranked passing defense. Both teams have been poor on offense with Houston ranked 26th and Tennessee ranked 31st. The Titans offense also got a big blow as QB Ryan Tannehill will miss today's game with an ankle injury. QB Malik Willis will make his first career start today for the Titans. Tennessee might be in 1st place, but it's more by virtue of a very weak division. I give the Texas a good shot at winning this game on Sunday. Play Houston. |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints +2 | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Las Vegas Raiders used their bye week well to rebound from their loss to the Chiefs to beat Houston last week, 38-20. The Raider offense rushed for 164 yards and passed for another 236 yards in the win. The Raiders did get banged-up though as both QB Derek Carr (Back) and WR Davante Adams (Illness) come into this game as probable but ailing. The Raiders offense has been good, ranked 9th overall in the league while New Orleans comes ranked 3rd overall. The Saints defense is ranked 14th and the Raiders 24th. The Raiders are 2-8 ATS their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 2-5 ATS their last seven on the road. The Raiders have also gone over in their last four games and last five games in October. The Saints have gone over their last 4 and 10-1 O/U their last 11 games in October. These teams have met only once the last five years and that was back in Oakland when the Raiders won 34-24. The Raiders are a small road favorite here on Sunday, but I will be on the Saints. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
The Arizona Cardinals tied for last in the NFC West with the SF 49ers as both teams are 2-4. However, the Rams are just a half game in front at 3-3 and the Seahawks are just one game in first place at 4-3. The Cards won at home last week over New Orleans, 42-34 as a 2.5 point favorite. The offense had just 326 total yards and the defense allowed 494 yards. But it was three turnovers by the Saints that led to the Arizona win. That win snapped a two game losing streak for the Cardinals. Minnesota is the leader in the NFC North with a 5-1 record, 2.5-games ahead of the Packers and Bears. The Vikings are the only team in the division with a plus point differential (+21) this year. The Vikings had last week off after beating Miami the week before, 24-16. The only loss for the Vikings this year coming in their second game at Philly, 7-24. The Minnesota defense isn't very good, ranked just 27th overall and 28th vs the pass. The offense comes in ranked 18th overall. Arizona's offense ranks 15th while their defense is 22nd. Arizona has been good on the road, going 20-8-2 ATS their last 30 away games. The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS their last five games and 1-4 ATS their last five games following a bye week. They are also 2-8 ATS vs a team with a losing record. The dog in this series is 7-2-2 ATS and that's what I will be on here today. The underdog Cardinals. |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12.5 v. Tennessee | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 49 m | Show | |
Tennessee had a softball tossed to them last week in the manner of Tennessee-Martin and the Vols had little issue in a 65-24 win. That was coming after the biggest win in maybe Tennessee history when they beat Alabama two weeks ago, 52-49. The Vols are now 7-0 S/U and 6-1 ATS on the season. They have also scored at least 34 points in every game this year and rank 1st in the nation in total offense. Kentucky started the season 4-0 before dropping their fifth game at Ole Miss, 19-22 and then dropping the next game vs South Carolina, 14-24. The Wildcats did rebound last week at home over Mississippi State, 27-17, covering the 7-point favorite line. The offense is ranked just 82nd while the defense is very good at 12th. The Wildcats are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs a team with a winning record. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall games and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. As good as Tennessee has been, they are just 9-24 ATS their last 33 home games vs a team with a winning road record. The road team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series and the dog is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. Lots of points here on Kentucky. I'll take a shot with the Wildcats and see if their very good defense can get them the cover. Play Kentucky. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +4 v. South Carolina | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 43 m | Show | |
 Missouri snapped a 3-game losing skid last week at home against Vanderbilt, 17-14, failing to cover the 14.5-point favorite spread. Missouri is 3-4 S/U and 4-2 ATS on the season. The Tigers looking to get back to bowl eligible with five games left on the schedule. South Carolina has won three straight after last week's win over Texas A&M, 30-24 as a 3.5-point home dog. USC had just 286 totals yards in the win and allowed 398 to Texas A&M. Both teams had two turnovers and the Aggies had 10 more first downs and 15 more plays. The Gamecocks are 4-2 S/U and ATS on the season. South Carolina is ranked 81st in offense and 51st on defense. Missouri is 92 on offense and 21st on defense. Missouri has won and covered the last three years in this matchup, including last year's 31-28 home win. Missouri has covered six of their last eight conference games. South Carolina is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 conference games. Missouri is getting about a field goal here on Saturday. I'll take the points in this matchup. |
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10-29-22 | Illinois -7.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 15 m | Show |
Who has the best defensive overall unit in the FBS? If you said Illinois you would be correct. The Illini allow a paltry 221 total yards per game and have an outstanding red zone efficiency rating of just 42.9% on the season. In fact, the Big 10 is the defensive conference this year with four teams in the top six defensive units in the country. Alas, Nebraska is not one of them as the Huskers rank 122nd in the nation. Illinois had last week off to rest up for today's contest. The Illini coming off a 26-14 win over Minnesota, covering the 7-point dog line. They have now allowed 14 points or fewer in all but one game this season and that was their only loss of the year back on Sept 2 at Indiana, 20-23. Nebraska has struggled to a 4-4 record but can still go to a bowl if they can get by the Big 10's best teams in the coming five weeks. The problem is this team's defense that gives up a lot of yards and points. Illinois has won and covered the last two seasons vs Nebraska, including last year's 30-22 win at home as a 6.5-point dog. Illinois is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Nebraska is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Illinois has covered five of the last seven in this series and I fully expect their defense to shut down Nebraska today and get the cover. |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
 Oklahoma rebounded from their embarrassing 0-49 loss to Texas with a big win two weeks ago over Kansas, 52-42 as a 7-point favorite. The Sooners had last week off as they head into the final five games of the regular season. The offense has been very good, ranked 22nd overall in the FBS. It's the defense that has been bad, ranked 115th in the country in total defense. Iowa State looks to snap a four-game losing streak here today. The Cyclones started the season 3-0, but have fallen on hard time recently. They are coming off a very good game at Texas, losing a close one 21-24 as a 16.5-point road dog. The Cyclones have been pretty good to bettors with a 5-2 ATS record this year. The offense has been struggling, ranked 86th overall. However, it's their defense that has been getting them these spread covers as the unit is ranked 10th in the country. The Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last five conference games and 2-6 ATS their last eight vs a team with a losing home record. Iowa State normally does very well in October, going 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games this month. Iowa State is also 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Sooners. Iowa State a small home dog here and the dog is 5-2 ATS the last seven in this series. I'm taking Iowa State with their very good defense today. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs -1 | 27-22 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Who would have believed that entering week 7 in the NFL that both a Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers led teams would both have losing records? Surely not Tom Brady who has shown his frustration on the Tampa Bay sidelines with more broken tables then it seems touchdown tosses this year. The Bucs lost to the Carolina Panthers last week, 3-21 despite playing the worst defense in the NFL and a Panther's team that just traded away their star running back in Christian McCaffrey. The Bucs had just 46 rushing yards though they had 16 more offensive plays and three more first downs then the Panthers. Meanwhile, Baltimore held on to beat the Cleveland Browns last week, 23-20, though failing to cover the 6.5-point favorite line. The Browns had 336 totals yards to just 254 by the Ravens. The Ravens are the 14th ranked offensive team while the Bucs are 21st. The Bucs defense has been the best part of their team this year, ranked 7th overall, though they have dropped a few placed in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Baltimore has struggled to a 23rd ranking on defense. The Ravens are tied for the lead in the AFC North at 4-3 with the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite their poor play, the Bucs are tied for first in the NFC North at 3-4 with the Falcons. No team in the North has a positive point differential. The Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games and 1-6 ATS vs a team with a losing record. The only bright spot for bettors on the Bucs side of the ball is that they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. This is a matchup of first place teams, though sure doesn't seem like it. We need little more than a win with the Bucs here tonight so I'll take Brady and a better defense back on the home turf tonight. Play Tampa Bay. |
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10-23-22 | Steelers +7.5 v. Dolphins | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers rebounded from their 3-38 beating at the hands of Buffalo two weeks ago with an improbable win at home over Tampa Bay last week, 20-18, as a 9.5-point dog. Miami lost it's third straight last week with a loss at home to Minnesota, 16-24, as a 3-point dog. It's also the third week they failed to cover the spread and scored fewer than 17 points. Of course this was due to the loss of QB Tua Tagovilioa who had a concussion. Tua is expected to return this week though. The Miami offense was ranked 8th because of that passing game that ranks 2nd while the rushing game is just 30th. These teams have met just once in the last five years with the Steelers winning that game in 2019, 27-14. The dog has covered four of the last five in this series. The Dolphins are now 0-6 in their last six October games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a s/u loss. I don't know how effective Tua will be in his return here on Sunday. I'll take the points with the Steelers. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
Big news in San Francisco and potential shift in power is the acquisition of RB Christian McCaffrey from Carolina. McCaffrey returns home to the bay area where he went to college at Stanford. The Panthers in return received a host of draft picks. The 49ers lost last week at Atlanta, 14-28, after being tied 14-14 at one point. The Niners had just 50-yards rushing so the addition of McCaffrey should do wonders for the running game that has been very good overall on the year. The 49ers have the 18th ranked offense and the 11th ranked rushing offense. It's the defense that has been outstanding, ranked 1st overall in the NFL, 2nd in rushing and 2nd in passing. The Chiefs lost the rematch last week with Buffalo, 20-24 as a 2.5-point dog. That makes them 4-2 S/U and 2-4 ATS on the season. The KC offense is ranked 6th overall, 20th in rushing and 4th in passing. The defense ranks 20th overall, 4th vs the rush and 27th vs the pass. The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six overall home games. The Chiefs had issues with the Bills defense last week and they will again here with the NFL's best defense. Play San Francisco. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions had a very good offense through four games of the season. Then two weeks ago they got shut out at New England, 0-29. They had a season low in both rushing and passing. The Lions had last week off to stew over the loss and get healthy. In fact, even with that shutout the offense ranks 2nd in the NFL with a balanced attack. Their rush game is 8th and pass 7th. The defense is the problem, ranking dead last in the NFL, last in rushing and 26th in passing. Good news for the Dallas Cowboys is that QB Dak Prescott looks to return this week. His stand-in, Cooper Rush, did a great job leading the team to 4-1 record in Prescott's absence. The offense still ranked just 27th overall. The defense has been very good, ranked 8th in the NFL and 4th vs the pass. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games vs a team with a losing record and 16-5 ATS their last 21 games vs the NFC. Lions getting right at a TD here on Sunday. That's a lot of points with the 2nd ranked offense in the NFL. I'll take the points. Play Detroit. |
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10-23-22 | Giants +3.5 v. Jaguars | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
The NY Giants won their third game in a row after last week's win over Baltimore, 24-20, as a 5.5-point dog. The Giants have also gone 5-1 ATS on the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars lost at Indianapolis last week, 27-34, as a 1.5-point dog. That makes three straight losses since their big win at the Chargers Sept 25, 38-10. The Giants offense is ranked 17th overall while Jacksonville is 11th overall. The Giants defense is 15th while Jacksonville is 11th. The Giants are now 19-7 ATS their last 26 games on grass and 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 vs a team with a losing record. The Jags are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home and 3-11 ATS their last 14 games overall. I like the way the Giants have been playing and the Jags, while improved, still have a ways to go. Take the Giants. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons +6.5 v. Bengals | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Who's the only team in the NFL with a perfect spread record this year? If you guessed Atlanta you guessed right. The Falcons are 6-0 vs the spread this year and one of the surprise teams after beating San Francisco last week at home, 28-14. The Falcons rushing game has been great this year, ranked 3rd overall in the NFL. They have 151 or more yards rushing in all but one game this year. They had 168 yards on the ground against a the NFL's top rated defense in San Francisco last week. The Falcons defense is another story, ranked 27th overall in the NFL and 31 st vs the pass. Good thing the rushing game is so good, they can play keep away and not have their defense on the field as much. Cincinnati came from behind last week to win on the road at New Orleans, 30-26, just covering the field goal line. That was the fourth straight cover the for Bengals. The Bengals offense isn't as prolific this year, ranked just 20th overall, though the passing game behind Joe Burrows is ranked 8th. This looks to be an interesting matchup here on Sunday. But for me, I like this Atlanta rushing game and will take the Falcons plus the points. Take Atlanta |
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10-23-22 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The Indianapolis Colts are 3-2-1 on the season and just percentage points behind the Tennessee Titans for the lead in the AFC South Division. That makes this game today extra special as the winner will take over sole possession of first place. The Colts have won two straight games after last weeks win over over the Jaguars, 34-27, as a 1.5 point dog. The Colts had a season high in passing yards with 389 and a season low in rushing yards with 45. The reason has been the loss of one of the best running backs in the NFL in Jonathon Taylor who has been nursing ankle injury. The good news is that Taylor is expected back this week. Meanwhile, the Titans had the week off last week after beating Washington the week before, 21-17. The Titans lost their first two games of the season but have since won three straight. The offense has yet to score more than 24 points and ranks 31st overall in the NFL even with Derick Henry rushing. The Colts offense ranks 14th overall in the NFL and 5th passing. The Colts defense is 10th overall with the Titans at 28th overall, 5th vs the rush. The Colts have covered 12 of their last 17 road games and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs a team with a winning record. The Colts have also covered seven of the last 10 meetings in Tennessee and the road team is 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings. I'm taking the Colts here with Taylor returning to the rushing game. |
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10-22-22 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
 Utah State Aggies are 3-4 after winning their last two games over Air Force and Colorado State. The latter as a 10.5 point favorite, failing to cover the 17-13 S/U win. That also makes them 2-4 ATS on the season. Utah State had 390 yards of offense last week to Colorado State's 262 yards. They had 10 more first downs and a +1 turnover ratio. Wyoming snapped their two game losing streak with a win at New Mexico last week, 27-14 as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cowboys are now 4-3 S/U and 4-2 ATS on the season. The Cowboys offense is not that good, ranked just 120th in the country with a poor 64.7 Red Zone efficiency mark. Utah State has a 89th ranked offense. The Aggies are 69th in defense with Wyoming coming in at 78th. Utah State has covered six of their last eight games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Wyoming is 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs a team with a losing record. Your free play is on Utah State. |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 23 m | Show | |
 TCU sits atop of the Big 12 Conference with a 3-0 conference record and 6-0 over record this season. Kansas State is right behind them with a 3-0 conference mark and 5-1 overall mark. Winner of this game takes over sole possession of the Big 12 Conference. A bit surprising that the TCU defense is ranked 89th in the country and the K State defense is 44th. TCU does have the third ranked offense in the country with K State coming in at 64th. The Wild Cats have covered the lst four meetings in this series, including a 31-12 win at K State last week. K State is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on grass. TCU has not done well at home, going 14-30-1 ATS their last 45 home games. Should be a very good battle for the top conference spot, I'll take the points with Kansas State. |
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10-22-22 | Texas A&M v. South Carolina +3.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 54 m | Show | |
East vs West in the SEC here today as Texas A&M of the West takes on the East's South Carolina. A&M is 1-2 in conference play and just 3-3 overall. South Carolina is also 1-2 in conference play and 4-2 overall. Neither took looks to be contenders in the SEC title, but both are looking to improve their bowl chances. The Aggies lost a close game two weeks ago to one of the best in the country in Alabama, 20-24 as a 24.5-point dog. They had last week off to ponder that loss as they prepare to hit the road today. South Carolina beat a very good Kentucky team two weeks ago on the road, 24-14. They also had last week off to prepare for this game. A&M doesn't have a very good offense, ranked 110th in the nation and a poor red zone efficiency of just 65.5%. South Carolina is 77th in offense and 42nd in defense. A&M is ranked 54th in defense. The Aggies are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games and 8-21 ATS in their last 29 coming off a bye week. I'll take the home dog here today and that's South Carolina. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +3.5 v. Air Force | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 65 h 24 m | Show | |
The Mountain West conference is split into the West and Mountain divisions. The Mountain being the much stronger one with both Boise State and Air Force among the list. Boise Leads right now in the Mountain division with a 3-0 conference record and 4-2 overall mark. Air Force is 2-2 in conference play with a 5-2 overall mark. Air Force went to UNLV last week and trounced the Rebels, 42-7 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Falcons had four take aways that all led to points and an easy win. Boise State had last week off after beating Fresno the week before, 40-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite. Air Force took the game last year in Boise, 24-17, breaking a four game Boise streak of winning and covering. The Broncos are 7-2-2 ATS their last 11 games on grass. The strength of this Boise team is their 2nd ranked national defense that has held opponents to just 236 yards per game. Air Force is no slouch though, ranked 9th in the nation. Air Force has the 39th ranked offense which is led by their top ranked rushing attack which averages 360 yards a game. This one really comes down to the Boise defense being able to contain that Air Force rushing attack. I'm going to take the small points here today with Boise. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 55 m | Show |
UCLA and Oregon face off today in Eugene for the PAC 12. UCLA is 3-0 in conference play and 6-0 overall. Oregon is 3-0 in conference play and 5-1 overall. UCLA had last week off to prepare for today's contest. They are coming off a home win over Utah, 42-32. The Bruins have scored at least 32 in all six games and 40 or more in five games. Oregon also had last week off after demolishing Arizona the previous week, 49-22. The Ducks have scored 41 or more points in every game since their opening week loss at Georgia where they scored just three points. Oregon has the 7th ranked offense in the country and UCLA has the 11th ranked offense. UCLA's defense ranks 33rd overall while Oregon comes in at 60th. UCLA has now covered seven of their last eight road games and are 7-2 ATS overall their last nine games. Oregon is 3-8 ATS their last 11 games following a ATS win. UCLA around a 6-point dog here today. I won't be surprised one bit with a UCLA straight up win. I'll take the points. |
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10-22-22 | Toledo v. Buffalo +7.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 59 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a MAC Conference matchup that might be for the conference championship as the MAC East leader, Buffalo, takes on MAC-West leader Toledo. Both teams undefeated in conference play at 3-0. Toledo came into MAC play just 2-2 S/U and 1-2 ATS. But three straight conference wins and covers have changed things. The Rockets have scored 52 points in each of their last two games and 142 so far in three conference games. Buffalo may only be 5-3 S/U overall, but they have a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. Their defense has been excellent, holding their last two MAC opponents to just seven points each. Moreover, they have allowed just 34 total points in three MAC games. Their non conference games though still have them at 73rd overall on defense, though they have risen in the past three weeks. Toledo has the 48th ranked defense and 67th ranked offense. Toledo has covered eight of the last 11 road games. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record. Clash of first place teams here today, but I'll be on Buffalo as they get at least a TD at home in this contest. |
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10-21-22 | UAB v. Western Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Conference USA matchup here on Thursday has the 4-2 UAB Blazers taking on the 4-3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Both teams are 2-1 in the conference and trail both North Texas and UTSA who are 3-0. UAB is coming off a home win over Charlotte last week, 34-20, though they failed to cover the 23-point spread. The Blazers piled-up 510 yards of offense in the game. Western Kentucky won on the road at Middle Tennessee State last week, 35-17, cover the 7-point favorite line. They held Mid-Tenn to just 291 yards while gaining 443 yards. These teams have met just twice in the last five years with UAB taking the game in 2020, 37-14 and W.Ky taking the 2019 contest, 20-13. Western has the 15th ranked offense in the country with 144 yards rushing and 344 yards passing. UAB comes in at 34th. UAB has the slightly better defense as they are 19th in the nation with Western at 52nd. Western has covered seven of their last 10 home games and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. I'll take the home team here tonight. Play Western Kentucky. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The honeymoon of Russell Wilson in Denver looks to be over as the fans must be wondering what they got for all their money as QB Geno Smith was the highest rated passer in the NFL, taking the place of Wilson. The Broncos lost for the 2nd consecutive game last week to the Colts, 9-12. They could manage just three field goals in the loss. They have scored more than 20 points just once this season and that was 23 against the Raiders in a loss. However, their defense has been great, ranking 3rd overall in the NFL an 1st in the NFL vs the pass. The offense ranks 18th overall. The Chargers have won two straight games since their loss at home to the Jaguars back on Sept 25th. They beat the Browns last week in Cleveland, 30-28 as a 1.5-point favorite. The offense ranks 5th overall in the NFL with their passing game coming in at 2nd. Should be a good matchup of the Denver passing defense against the Chargers passing offense. Denver has covered four of the last six in this series. The Broncos have had 11 days to get ready for this game. Plus all the criticism of Wilson's play might actually motivate him here tonight to play well. This is a AFC West clash and division games are usually played quite tight. I don't believe the Chargers should be this big a favorite against a very good Broncos defense. I'll take a shot with Wilson and the underdog Broncos tonight. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-26 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East showdown here between the 5-0 Philadelphia Eagles and the 4-1 Dallas Cowboys. No one really expected much from the Cowboys when they lost QB Dak Prescot early on this year. However, Cooper Rush has come in and led the team to four wins. Who would have thought that one of the worst, if not the worst division in football in recent years would be the best this year with a pair of 4-1 teams and the 5-0 Eagles. With Rush at QB, the Cowboys are 7th ranked on offense while the Eagles are 4th ranked. Philly has the 2nd ranked defense in the league while Dallas comes in at 27th. Dallas beat the Rams last week 22-10, holding their second straight opponent to just 10 points. They held the Rams to just 38 rushing yards last week. Philly just got by the Arizona Cardinals last week, 20-17 as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas has now covered 10 of their last 11 road games. They are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games vs the NFC and 22-7 ATS their last 29 vs the NFC East. The Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Philly and 7-2 ATS their last nine overall vs the Eagles. I'm going to take the points with the Cowboys here tonight. |
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10-16-22 | Bills v. Chiefs +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Rematch of that amazing playoff matchup last year between the Bills and the Chiefs. Maybe one of the most exciting games in NFL history as the Chiefs pulled off the comeback in Overtime to shock the Bills. Now we get to see these teams again here in Kansas City. The Chiefs had to hold off the Raiders last week and a late two-point conversion that would have given the Raiders the lead late. KC held on for the win though, 30-29 as TE Kelso had FOUR touchdown receptions in that game. The Chiefs are 4-1 S/U and 2-3 ATS on the season. KC also took over the top spot in the AFC West, one game ahead of the Chargers and two games ahead of the Broncos. Buffalo had little issues at home last week against the Steelers, winning handly 38-3. The Bills had their best offensive output of the season with 120 yards on the ground and 432 yards through the air. The Bills are also 4-1 S/U and 3-1-1 ATS on the season. Their only loss coming at the hands of the Dolphins, 19-21, back on Sept 25th. The Chiefs have covered three of the last four meetings in this series. They will face a Bills team that ranks first in the NFL in offense (15 rushing and 1st in passing) and 2nd in defense (2 vs rush, 4th vs pass). Kansas City has the 6th ranked offense and the 14th ranked defense. The Bills are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight vs a winning team and 0-5 ATS in their last five games on grass. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS their last 10 vs a winning team and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass. The Chiefs have covered six of the last eight in this series and getting a field goal here is what I'm going to side with. Take the home dog Chiefs in this one. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Browns | 38-15 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
 The Patriots in that unusual position of last in the AFC East with a 2-3 record. The Patriots did snap a two game losing streak last week with a shut-out win over Detroit, 29-0, as a 3-poin favorite. New England ranks 17th overall on offense and 16th on defense. The Browns are in 2nd place in the AFC North with a 2-3 record, one game back of Baltimore. Cleveland has the 19th ranked defense and the 4th ranked offense. That offensive united has the NFL's top ranked rushing attack at 192 yards per game. These teams have met just twice in the last five years with the Patriots winning both and covering both games. The Pats are 29-10 ATS their last 39 games vs a losing team. They are also 19-9-1 ATS their last 29 games on grass. The Browns are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games and 2-6 ATS their last eight home games. The Pats are a small road dog here and I expect them to be in this game and get the straight-up win today. Play New England. |
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10-16-22 | Bengals v. Saints +3 | 30-26 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The Cincinnati Bengals came up short last week at Baltimore, 17-19, though they did cover the 3-point dog spread. The Bengals saw their two-game win streak snapped as they fell to 2-3 S/U and 3-2 ATS on the season. The Bengals offense ranks 22nd overall, but 25th rushing. The defense is 13th overall, 7th vs the rush. The Saints beat the Seahawks last week, 39-32, covering the 5.5-point favorite line. The win snapped a three game losing streak to make them 2-3 S/U and ATS overall. The offense had their best output of the year with 438 total yards and 235 rushing yards. The Saints defense ranks 16th overall while the offense is 7th overall. The dog has covered four of the last five in this series and the Saints are a small home dog here today. QB Jameis Winston will miss another game here today with a back injury but ageless Andy Dalton will be behind center. Bengals not exactly looking like the team of last year and with that a small dog at home with the Saints looks good to me. Play New Orleans. |
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10-15-22 | Mississippi State -4 v. Kentucky | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 39 m | Show | |
Mississippi State has been on a offensive explosion of late, scoring 40 points or more in its last three games and 39 or more points in five of its six games. No wonder the offense ranks 26th in the country with one of the best red-zone efficiency marks of 92.5%. The Bulldogs are coming off a blowout win over Arkansas last week, 40-17, easily covering the 8-point spread. They had 568 yards of offense last week vs the Hogs with a +2 turnover ratio. The Dogs are 5-1 S/U and ATS with their only loss coming to LSU back on Sept 17, 16-31. Kentucky lost its second straight game of the season last week to South Carolina, 14-24, failing to cover the -10.5 point line. That coming on the heals of their loss at Ole Miss the week before, 19-22. The losses dropped the team to 4-2 S/U and 3-2 ATS. Miss State beat Kentucky last year, 31-17, doubling them in yards and having a +4 turnover ratio. Miss State is 4-1-1 ATS their last six games and 6-1 ATS their last seven vs a team with a winning record. They have also covered five of their last seven on the road. I'm not happy with the way Kentucky has performed the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs look to be firing on all cylinders. I'll take the visitor in this one on Miss State. |
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10-15-22 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Michigan State | 28-34 | Loss | -105 | 66 h 7 m | Show | |
The Wisconsin Badgers rebounded from their 10-34 loss to Illinois two weeks ago with a road win at Northwestern last week, 42-7. The Badgers are now 3-3 S/U and ATS on the season. A tough Big 10 schedule follows the next six games if they hope to get bowl eligible. Wisconsin had 515 yards of offense last week at Northwestern and a +3 turnover ratio. Michigan State is coming off a loss last week at home to Ohio State, 20-49. The Spartans had just 202 total yards of offense in the loss while allowing 614 yards. The Spartans have now lost four straight games and are 2-4 overall on the season. Wisconsin has covered six of their last seven conference games and 4-0 ATS their last four overall. Michigan State might be the worst team in the Big 10. Their offense is not good, their defense is not good and they don't score many points. I'll stick with the Badgers here today as they need wins against teams like this. Play Wisconsin. |
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10-15-22 | Alabama v. Tennessee +7.5 | 49-52 | Win | 100 | 66 h 48 m | Show | |
Tennessee has their biggest game of the season here this week as they welcome Alabama to town. The Vols are 5-0 S/U and having one of their best seasons. They have also covered four of their five games this year. They are coming off a decisive road win last week at LSU, 40-13, as a -2.5-point favorite. The Vols can go all out in this one as they have Tennessee-Martin up next. Alabama just did get by Texas A&M last week at home, 24-20, not coming close to covering the 24.5 point favorite line. The Tide still are a perfect 6-0 on the season and 4-2 vs the number. Alabama won this game last year in Tennessee, 52-24, covering the 24-point line. This year different story as they are just a 7.5-point road favorite. Alabama is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs a team with a winning record. History is on the side of the Tide in this one. But you Tennessee will be rocking on Saturday as the faithful look for a huge upset win of the top ranked Tide. I'm taking the points in this one as I expect Tennessee to be there at the end. Play Tennessee. Â Â Â |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 66 h 36 m | Show | |
 Oklahoma State hits the road this week after a home win last week over Texas Tech, 41-31, as a 9-point favorite. The Cowboys are now 5-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS. The offense has been clicking, now ranked 20th in the nation and having a red-zone efficiency of 81.5%. The defense isn't quite as good, coming in at 104th. TCU got by Kansas last week in the whining moments of the game, 38-31, pushing the 7-point spread. The Horned Frogs are now 5-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS. Their offense ranks 3rd in the nation with a 81.2% red zone efficiency. The defense comes in at 93rd. Ok State won last year's matchup with TCU, 63-17, covering the 11.5-points spread. Ok State is now 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games against a winning home team. They are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games. TCU is 2-6-1 in their last nine conference games and 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 home games. The dog has covered six of the last seven in this series and that's what I look for here today. Play Oklahoma State. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 62 h 10 m | Show | |
Texas looks like the read deal this year as they rolled past Oklahoma last week, 49-0. That made them 4-2 S/U and 5-1 ATS. Their only losses came to Alabama in the final seconds of that game, 19-20 and then lost to Texas Tech, 34-37. Texas ranks 35th overall on offense and 33rd in defense. Iowa State looks to snap a three-game losing streak here today. The Cyclones lost last week to Kansas State, 9-10 and the previous week to Kansas, 11-14. That makes them 3-3 S/U and 4-2 ATS on the season. Iowa State has covered against Texas the last two years, last year winning 30-7 at home and the previous year winning 23-20 at Texas. Texas is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Texas has their big intra-state rivalry game next week at Oklahoma State. They might have their eyes set on that game and not on this one. Big points here with the dog and I'll take a shot with them. Play Iowa State. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 8 m | Show | |
Tough Big 10 matchup here today as Penn State travels to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. The Nittany Lions are coming off a win two weeks ago at home over Northwestern, 17-7, but failed to cover the 25.5-point lines. The Lions are now 5-0 S/U and 3-2 ATS on the season. Michigan beat Indiana last week, 31-10, but just missed covered the 21.5 point line. The Wolverines improved to 6-0 S/U and 3-3 ATS on the season. The Michigan offense ranks 27th in the country with Penn State coming in at 37th. The Michigan defense ranks 4th in the country, making it three of the top four defenses coming from the Big 10. The Penn State defense isn't bad though, ranking 37th overall. Penn State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Michigan is just 4-9 ATS their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. Looks like a good defensive battle here today. I'll take the points in this one and see if the Lions can get in under the line. Play Penn State. |
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10-15-22 | Minnesota v. Illinois +6.5 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 62 h 7 m | Show | |
The Illinois Illini are coming off a hard fought home win over defensive Iowa last week, 9-6, though they didn't cover the 3.-5 point line. That makes them 5-1 S/U and 3-2 ATS on the season. Illinois managed just 316 yards of offense in that game and had a -2 turnover ratio. They did rush for 200 yards though against the 8th ranked Iowa defense. Minnesota came up short last week at home against Purdue, losing 10-20 as a 12.5-point favorite. That makes the Gophers 4-1 S/U and 3-1 ATS. The loss was their first of the year and the most points they have allowed this year. The Gophers defense still ranks as the best in the nation, allowing just 222 yards per game and with just three TD's allowed in the red zone this year. Illinois though ranks second in the nation in defense and has a 30.2% red zone efficiency on defense, allowing just one red zone TD. Illinois has covered four of their last five home games and is 7-2 ATS their last nine games. This looks to be a great defensive battle between the top two rated defenses in the country. I'll take Illinois though in this one. |
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10-15-22 | Kansas +9 v. Oklahoma | 42-52 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 46 m | Show | |
Kansas saw its undefeated 5-0 mark come to an end last week with a loss to TCU, 31-38. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels left that game with a shoulder injury and is out this week. Jason Bean came in and performed well in the loss. Bean completed 16 of 24 passes for 262 yards and four TD's in relief. Meanwhile Oklahoma got demolished at the Cotton Bowl by Texas last week, 0-49. That was the team's third loss in a row. That dropped the Sooners to 3-3 on the season. The Sooners were outgained by Texas, 195-585 yards. OU QB Dillon Gabriel was injured in that game, but unlike Kansas, the Sooners had no one to replace him at QB. At least quality QB. That Sooners loss was the largest in school history. The Sooners also have lost three straight for the first time since 1998. Not Kansas gets a struggling OU team. Looks like Bean will once again be at the helm for Kansas. The Run game should do well though, as Oklahoma ranks last in the Big 12 and 122nd in the nation in run defense. This game really looks to be a question of whether Oklahoma will show up and it looks like they will do so maybe without their staring QB who is questionable with a concussion. Not sure how the line is OU -9 or thereabouts. I look for a straight up Kansas win, but I'll gladly take the generous points in this one. Play Kansas. |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida -23 | Top | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Temple looking to get back to 3-3 today with a win at UCF. The Owls are 2-3 after losing two weeks ago at Memphis, 3-24, as a 20-point dog. Temple has a good defense, 11th in the country. However, you have to take that with a grain of salt when you realize they have played Lafayette, Rutgers, U Mass and Duke, none of which are offensive powerhouses. The offense is not good, ranking 124th in the country. They were shutout by Duke and scored just three points against Memphis. Meanwhile, Central Florida looks to improve to 5-1 with a win tonight. UCF only loss coming against Louisville, 14-20 back on Sept 9th. They are coming off a win over SMU back on Oct 5, 41-19. The UCF offense ranks 17th in the nation with the defense at 40th. Temple is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 0-6 ATS in their last six road games. UCF has covered four of the last five in this series and the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. UCF has too much offense and defense for the Owls here tonight. Lay the points with Central Florida. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
The Las Vegas Raiders finally got Josh McDaniels his first win last week at home over the Denver Broncos, 32-23. The Raiders had 212 yards on the ground and another 173 yards through the air while holding Denver to 299 total yards. Kansas City went to Tampa Bay last week and led the entire way to a 41-31 win. The Chiefs are now 3-1 S/U and 2-2 ATS on the season. They held Tampa Bay to just three rushing yards, though Tom Brady did get 373 yards through the air. The Raiders defense ranks 22nd overall, 10th vs the rush. The Chiefs are 13th overall and top against the rush allowing just 66 yards per game average. The Chiefs are 5th on offense with the Raiders coming in at 13th. For some strange reason, the Chiefs are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record. They are also 2-5 ATS their last seven vs the AFC. The Raiders have been in every game this year, losing by five to the Chargers, six to the Cardinals and two to Tennessee. Tonight they get at least seven points and the way this offense has played I'll take the points here with the visitor. Play Las Vegas Raiders. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Bengals have had a rough start to the season but they play in the AFC North and right now are tied with the Browns and Ravens for first place at 2-2. The Bengals started the season 0-2, losing to Pittsburgh and then to Dallas. They have rebounded though with wins at the Jets, 27-12, and last week beating Miami, 27-15. The Bengals defense has been very good, ranked 11th overall in the NFL and 4th vs the rush, allowing just 86 yards per game. The offense improving to 16th overall and 8th in passing behind Jeff Burrows. Baltimore has the 2nd most points scored in the AFC with 119, though they rank just 12th overall in yardage. Baltimore jumped out to a lead last week at home over Buffalo, but couldn't hold on as the Bills won late, 23-20. The Ravens offense was held to just 296 yards by the league's top ranked defense. It's the Ravens defense that will have to improve. They are ranked 30th in the NFL and dead last vs the pass. Now they have to face a very good Burrows and the Bengals passing attack. Cincinnati has won and covered both games last year, 41-21 at home and 41-17 at Baltimore. The Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 AFC games, 6-1 ATS their last seven road games and 10-2 ATS their last 12 overall games. The Bengals have covered four of the last five in this series and the road team is 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. I don't see Baltimore stopping Burrows and the Bengals offense here today. I'll take Cincinnati. |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
The surprising Dallas Cowboys bring their 3-1 record to LA this week to take on the 2-2 Super Bowl defending Rams. The Cowboys had QB Dak Prescott go down in week 1, but since they they are 3-0 with backup QB Rush leading the team. Dallas beat the Washington Commanders last week, 25-10 as a 3-point favorite. All four teams in the NL West are at 2-2 with the Rams having come off that Monday Night loss last week to the 49ers, 9-24. Now they are on the short week as they return home to face Dallas. Dallas has a very good defense, ranked 7th overall in the NFL and 5th vs the pass. They should give Rams QB Mathew Stafford all he can handle this week. The Rams defense ranks just 16th. Surprisingly, the Rams offense ranks 28th in the league with the rushing attack 29th. Dallas has covered their last five road games and are 16-5 ATS their last 21 vs the NFC. The Rams are 1-5 ATS their last six games. The Rams still don't look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season while the Cowboys keep winning. I'll take the road dog in this one. Play Cowboys. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Miami will be without QB Tua Tagovailoa this week as he will be out with a concussion. Up next with Tua out will be veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater. Tua has bad an excellent season with a 109.9 QB rating this season. Bridgewater took over after Tua had to leave the Bengals contest. Bridgewater finished 14-of-25 for 193 yards and a TD and one INT. Bridgewater played last season for the Broncos. Bridgewater is alwo been amazing on the road, posting a 24-6 record in his last 30 away games. The Dolphins would have been around a 6-7 point favorite in this game, but we have seen the number adjusted to 3 1/2 when Tua was ruled out. For me, that's a way over adjustment here on Sunday and I'm making a big play on the Dolphins in this game. Your free play is on the Dolphins. |
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10-09-22 | Falcons +11 v. Bucs | 15-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
The NFC South is wide open with Tampa Bay and Atlanta both at 2-2 and the Panthers and Saints at 1-3. The winner here today takes over sole position in first place in the division. The Falcons have surprised many as they lead the division in points (103) with the Bucs in 2nd (82). The Falcons offense ranks just 15th, but their rushing attack is 4th. That took a hit last week when Cordell Patterson went down with an injury. He will be out this week, however, two solid rookies picked-up the slack last week and should both see lots of time today. The Falcons beat Cleveland last week, 23-20. They rushed for 202 yards, most of those with their rookie backs. Tampa Bay might be tied for first but they haven't clicked this year. QB Tom Brady has not looked all that good and the offense is ranked 25th after four weeks. The rushing game is just 31st while the passing game is 9th. The best part of the team has been the defense, which ranks 8th in the league. They are 12th rushing and 14th passing. The Falcons have now covered their last four games and are 43-20 ATS their last 63 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing the previous game. Don't expect the Bucs anemic rushing attack to do what the Browns did last week to the Falcons. The Falcons get double digits here today and for me that's too much to give to a team that has been playing very well. The Bucs have lost two straight games and while they likely won't lose today, I look for the Falcons to sneak in under the spread. Take Atlanta. |
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10-09-22 | Chargers v. Browns +2 | 30-28 | Push | 0 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
The LA Chargers rebounded from their horrendous home loss to the Jaguars two weeks ago with a win last week at Houston, 34-24. That makes them 2-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS on the season. The offense has been very good, despite playing without a key WR in Keenan Allen. Allen missed his second game last week and will be out again this week. The offense ranks 7th overall in the league and 1st in passing. The Browns are 4th in offense because they have the 2nd ranked rushing attack in the league. The Browns lost last week at Atlanta, 20-23. They have rushed for at least 171 yards in each of their first four games this season. The Browns are 2-2 S/U and ATS on the season. The Browns 9th ranked defense will be tasked with controlling Justin Hebert and the Chargers offense. The Browns have covered six of the last eight in this series. The dog has also covered seven of the last eight in the series. It's going to be the ball control rushing of the Browns against the pass attack of Hebert and the Chargers. Whoever wins the turnover battle likely wins this game. I'll take the Browns at home with their great rushing attack to keep the ball out of the Chargers hands. Play Cleveland. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State +13 v. USC | 14-30 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 12 m | Show | |
USC definitely the team in the PAC-12 as the favorite to win the conference. The Trojans really improved with the transfer portal and bringing in a new head coach. The difference has resulted in a 5-0 S/U start and 3-2 ATS mark. The Trojans have failed to cover the last two weeks though as the oddsmaker has really adjusted this team up. I believe they have over corrected and made them bigger favorites then they should be. That's the case here this week as they host Washington State. The Cougars are 4-1 S/U and ATS on the season and coming off a win over Cal last week, 28-9 as a 4-point favorite. The Cougars held cal to just 311 totals yards and had a +2 turnover ratio in the game. The defense ranks 68th overall while the offense is 94th. USC ranks 19th on offense and 55th on defense. Washington State is 20-6 ATS their last 26 games in October, 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four PAC-12 games. USC is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games and 2-5 ATS vs a team with a winning record. The road team is 7-2 ATS the last nine meetings in this series. I think 12.5 points is too many for the Trojans to be laying to a very good Washington State team. I'll take the points in this one. |
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10-08-22 | Army v. Wake Forest -16.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show | |
Wake Forest rebounded last week from their loss the week before to Clemson, 45-51. They beat Florida State last week, 31-21, as a 7-point dog. The win makes the Deamon Decons now 4-1 S/U and ATS on the season. Army coming off a loss last week at home to Georgia State, 14-31. The Black Knights dropped to 1-3 S/U and 0-3 ATS on the season. Their only win coming against FCS Villanova two weeks ago, 49-10. Army gave up 456 yards to Ga State despite having 19 more plays and four more first downs. It was their three turnovers that contributed to the loss. Army was trounced last year at Wake, giving up 638 yards and 70-points in the 56-70 shootout loss. Army has now covered just one of their last six games overall. Wake is 9-3-1 ATS their last 13 games against a losing team. I look for another Wake blowout this week against an overmanned Army squad. Take Wake Forest. |
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10-08-22 | Iowa v. Illinois -3 | Top | 6-9 | Push | 0 | 50 h 12 m | Show |
 Big 10 action here today as Illinois hosts Iowa. Iowa fell behind early last week at home against Michigan and couldn't quite rebound in their loss to the Wolverines, 14-27, as a 10.5-point dog. The Iowa offense just not good enough to come from behind like that. Iowa has the 129th ranked offense in the country and really has to rely on their 6th ranked defense to keep them in games. Illinois went to Wisconsin last week and put a big-time whipping on the Badgers, 34-10, as a 7-point dog. Take makes the Illini 4-1 S/U and 3-1 ATS on the season. Illinois has the nation's 54th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense. Iowa is now 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 October games. Illinois is 7-1 ATS int heir last eight overall games and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Despite both teams have top 10 defenses, I give the nod here to Illinois. And with the Illini offense much better than Iowa, I'll be on the home team here today. Play Illinois. |
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