Cappers Sports Picks

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away. 

Cleveland arrives in Cincinnati having just split a four-game road series against the Chicago White Sox. One day after being no-hit by Carlos Rodon, the Indians bounced back with a 4-2 victory on Thursday and are currently off to a 7-5 start. Cincinnati averaged 9.5 runs, batted .320 and posted an OPS of 1.006 while going 5-1 against the Cardinals and Pirates, its season-opening homestand. However, the Reds followed by totaling just 18 runs, getting shut out twice and batting .206 with a .612 OPS during a 2-4 road trip to Arizona and San Francisco.

Cleveland lefty Logan Allen (1-1, 2.70 ERA) will take the mound at Cincinnati, with the Reds countering with Jeff Hoffman (1-1, 3.86 ERA). Allen entered the 2021 season with just 12 appearances (four starts) and a 5.40 ERA. Hoffman spent his first five seasons with Colorado (68 appearances / 38 starts), going 10-16 with a 6.39 ERA. Both are making their third starts of 2021 and both have been fine (see stats above).

The good news for Cleveland supporters (and bad news for Cincy fans) is the Reds have totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). However, I'm not so sure the past means all that much here. The Reds 'turned a corner' last season and I feel as Hoffmann can become a solid member of the rotation now that he's away from Coors Field. Remember, the Reds averaged 9.5 RPG in its opening six-game home stand (see more stats above) and I expect Cincy's bats to 'wake up' vs the virtually untested Allen.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The StL Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record  It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Cards opened 5-2 but have lost four of five since, while the Phillies began the current season winning FIVE of six at home vs the Braves and Mets but then lost FIVE of six on the road against those same two NL East rivals.

Carlos Martinez (0-2, 6.30 ERA) will make his third start this season for the Cards, while the Phillies counter with Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.46 ERA), who is also making his third start of 2021.St Louis turned Martinez into a starter and he won 42 games with ERAs of 3.01, 3.04 and .364 over a three-year span (2015-17). However, he was back in the bullpen in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief). He made just five starts in 2020's shortened season and was just AWFUL, going 0-3 in five starts (Cards were 1-4) with a 9.90 ERA and 2,10 WHIP (you read that right!). In two starts in 2020, he's got a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

I'm no real fan of Eflin (29-33 with a 4.60 ERA in his career) but he's had two decent starts vs the Braves to open 2021 (3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP). My play here is more focused on Philly returning home where the team is 5-1. Thursday's rainout against the Mets meant the Phillies avoided Jacob deGrom and now they get Martinez, who has lost his mojo. The Cards had an "off day" Thursday but here's some bad news, the Cards are just 10-21 the last three seasons after an off day.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Afternoon Delight is on the Min Twins at 1:10 ET.

The Red Sox won the 2018 World Series but missed the postseason in 2019. Then game the COVID-shortened 2020 season in which Boston went 24-36. How bad was last year? The last time the Red Sox owned a winning percentage worse than its .400 from 2020 was 1965, when Boston went 62-100 (.383). The Red Sox opened the 2021 season with THREE straight losses while scoring just FIVE runs but Boston has now won NINE in a row after sweeping the Twins in Wednesday's doubleheader (Boston is averaging 7.4 RPG during its current winning streak). As for Minnesota, the Twins entered the current season off three playoff appearances in the previous four seasons, winning the AL Central in both 2019 and 2020. The Twins started 3-1 this season but will take the field Thursday afternoon at 5-7, leaving them in last-place in the AL Central. More notably , Minnesota has dropped FIVE straight home games for the first time since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. The Twins are just 1-for-24 with RISP in their three straight losses to the Red Sox.

Garrett Richards (0-1, 10.29 ERA) gets the ball for Boston, while Michael Pineda (1-0, 1.64 ERA) will start for Minnesota. Richards is in his 11th season, the first eight in which he pitched for the Angels. He had just one memorable season (13-4, 2.61 ERA in 2014) with LA and his 2018 was ended with Tommy John surgery. He signed with SD in 2019 and returned from surgery to make just three starts (8.31 ERA). he was healthy in 2020 but in 14 appearances (10 starts) was just 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA. He signed a one-year deal with Boston for 2021 (a mere $10 million) and has two starts (both against Baltimore) His 2021 debut was ugly (6 ERs in 2 IP) but he improved in his second (2 ERs in 5 IP).

Pineda's career has been interrupted by injury on a semi-regular basis but he seemed to find a 'home' with Minnesota in 2019. He was 11-5 with a 4.01 ERA before he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. His suspension ran into 2020, when he made five starts, going 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA (Twins were 5-0). He has opened the 20102 season with two good outings, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA / 0.91 WHIP).

Boston's win streak will end and why not here? After all, the Twins owned MLB's best home record in 2020 going 24-7. Also note that the Twins saw the return of third baseman Josh Donaldson from a hamstring injury he suffered on Opening Day at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Donaldson was activated from the injured list just before the second game and singled, walked and scored Minnesota's lone run.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the SF Giants at 3:45 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds won 3-0 Monday night in San Francisco but the Giants bounced back with a 7-6 victory last night. The teams meet in the rubber match of this three-game series this afternoon at Oracle Park. The Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs. The Giants' three World Series titles (2010, 2012 and 2014) seem like they came 20 years ago, although San Francisco just barely missed the postseason last year with a 29-31 record (pretty similar to the Reds). 

The teams enter this contest with identical 7-4 records, with Tyler Mahle (1-0, 2.00 ERA) taking the mound for the Reds to face former-Red Johnny Cueto (1-0, 2.51 ERA). Mahle is in his fifth season but has shown little in his two busiest years, going 7-9 (23 starts) with a 4.98 ERA in 2018 and 3-13 (25 starts) with a 65.14 ERA in 2019. He's lasted just nine innings in his two starts this season (allowed just two ERs) but the Reds have won both. Cueto pitched 7 1/2 seasons for the Reds before being dealt to Kansas City in 2015. He signed with the Giants in 2016 and went 18-5 (2.79 ERA) that season but from 2017 through his first two starts of 2021, he has been healthy enough to make just 52 starts, going 15-15! The Giants have won Cueto's first two starts in 2021. He's only faced his former team three times but in his most recent two starts, he's allowed four ERs in 15 innings (2.40 ERA) with the Giants winning both games.

As noted above, both teams are 7-4, with each team being strong at home (Reds 5-1 / Giants 4-1). This is a quick turnaround from a night game to an afternoon affair but San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler employed what he called a "line change," replacing four of his eight starting position players as Tuesday's game went along. I'm "all over" the home team and Cueto, who keeps his former team in check.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 7:40 ET.

The Cubs and Brewers (NL Central rivals) meet again in Milwaukee on Tuesday, after the Brewers won 6-3 last night in the first of this three-game series. The Cubs have now lost FIVE of their last six, scoring three or less runs in five of those six. In contrast, the Brewers have won five of their last six games, having scored 24 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in FIVE of their last six games.

The pitching matchup features the teams' respective aces, Chicago's Kyle Hendricks and Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff. Hendricks has yet to win in his previous two starts of 2021 (he's 0-1 and the team 0-2), as has Woodruff. However, the Brewers are 2-0 in Woodruff's starts with him posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and a 13-2 KW ratio. These two squared off against each other on April 7 in Wrigley, with BOTH pitching well. Hendricks threw six scoreless innings (6-1 KW ratio), while Woodruff pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing one hit with an 8-0KW ratio.

At the moment, the Cubs are struggling (can't find their offense) while the Brewers are playing well. However, in this quick "re-hook," I'll side with Hendricks, who in 24 career starts (most vs any opponent) owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP vs Milwaukee. The Cubs will break out of their batting slump sometime and I believe Hendricks won't need too much here to earn the "W."

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET.

The Yankees and the Blue Jays continue their three-game series in Toronto on Tuesday, after the Yankees won 3-1 Monday behind Gerrit Cole's six-inning effort (allowed just one run on three hits and eight Ks). Kyle Higashioka did all the damage the Yankees needed with two HRs and three RBI, while the Jays managed just five hits in falling to 4-6 (Yankees are 5-5).

Taking the mound on Tuesday will be New York's James Taillon and Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu Taillon's first season was 2016 with Pittsburgh and in 2018, went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts (Pirates were 20-12). Taillon's 2019 season was cut short due to a forearm injury and he was shut down for the remainder of the season on August 2 to undergo surgery. He was 2–3 with a 4.10 ERA in 7 starts. His 2019 surgery to repair a flexor tendon as well as UCL revision led him to miss all of 2020. The Pirates traded Taillon to the New York Yankees in January of 2021. He lasted 4.2 innings in his 2021 debut (allowed two ERs) but had a 7-0 KW ratio.

Ryu pitched for the Dodgers from 2013 through 2019, winning 14 games in three different seasons. The best of those was in 2019 when he went 14-5 with a 2,32 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He had a strong 2020 season for Toronto, going 5-2, 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 starts (team was 9-3). Toronto made back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but three losing seasons followed, before the Blue Jays surprised all going 32-28 in 2020. However, Toronto was eliminated by Tampa Bay 2-0 in a best-of-three series.

Ryu was Toronto's ace last season (see results above) and he's had two solid outings in 2021, allowing four ERs over 12.1 innings (2.92 ERA) with a 12-1 KW ratio. The Yankees were just 3-7 on the road vs lefties in 2020 (averaged only 3.1 RPG) and entered last night 0-3 vs lefties in 2021, averaging 3.3 RPG. The Yankees did win vs lefty Robbie Ray on Monday but Ray allowed just a two-run HR in five innings. What Ryu is missing so far in 2021 is a "W" and with some help from the Toronto bats, gets his first win of 2021 right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, The Indians are 5-3 to open the 2021 season but will spend this week on the road, with four games in Chicago against the White Sox (Mon-Thu) and then three games at Cincinnati. The White Sox are just 4-5 to open 2021 but have only played twice at home (1-1). However, the Indians won EIGHT of 10 meetings with the White Sox in 2020.

Cleveland enters on a four-game winning streak after concluding a three-game series of the Detroit Tigers with a 5-2 victory on Sunday. Chicago lost three of its first four games but then went 12-for-39 (.307) with runners in scoring position in winning three of its next four contests. However, the White Sox blew a pair of one-run leads on Sunday in taking a 4-3 loss in 10 innings against the Kansas City Royals. Cleveland's rotation owns a 2.70 ERA and will open this series with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 2.45 ERA). Carlos Rodon (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago.

McKenzie went 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA in six starts last season (Indians were 3-3) and began this season by allowing a run, two hits and four walks in 3.2 innings during last Monday's 3-0 loss to Kansas City. The Indians have said that they will monitor McKenzie's workload closely since he went two years without pitching due to injuries and threw just 33.1 innings last season. Carlos Rodon missed the majority of last season due to left shoulder soreness but opened 2021 with five scoreless innings (allowed just two hits) in last Monday's 6-0 win in Seattle (he settled for a no-decision). Rodon has made 15 career starts vs Cleveland and while he's just 5-4 (team is 7-8), he' owns an excellent 2.83 ERA. The Indians averaged just 3.9 RPG in 13 contests vs left-handers and I'm backing Rodon and the White Sox in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET.

The Washington Nationals made a memorable run in winning the 2019 World Series but followed by going just 26-34 in 2020, finishing last in the NL East. The pandemic-depleted Nationals of 2021 have opened 1-5 (.167), giving them the worst record in MLB. Washington will try to snap a five-game losing streak when they visit the 5-4 St Louis Cardinals for a three-game series starting Monday. The Cardinals know all about dealing with COVID-19, as the Cards were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season. However, the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record

Erick Fedde (0-1, 27.00 ERA) of Washington and John Grant (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will each make their second starts of the season in Monday's game. Faded is in his fifth season with Washington and in 47 appearances (35 starts), is just 8-12 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He allowed six runs (five earned) of a 7-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves on April 7. His only career start vs St Louis came back in 2018 when he allowed four ERs over five innings of an 11-8 loss (he got a no-decision). Gant is in his sixth season but he's started just 29 times in his 135 career appearances. Gant didn't allow an earned run in four innings during a 4-2 victory over Miami on April 6 (got a no-decision). His most recent starts vs Washington came in 2018 (two), as he allowed just one ER over 9.2 innings (0.93 ERA) with the Cards winning both games.

The Nats are a mess right now, having lost FIVE in a row and enter having averaged 2.83 RPG (28th of 30 teams). Washington was just 15-28 vs righties last season, including 6-14 on the road, averaging 3.9 RPG. The losing continues for Washington, as St Louis wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Sunday at Chase Field in the rubber match of this three-game series. Cincinnati took two of three to open the season vs the Cardinals, then swept the Pirates in their second series. After a 6-5 win on Friday, the Reds coughed up five runs in the fifth inning on the way to an 8-3 loss. Arizona opened the season losing THREE of four in San Diego and then TWO of three in Colorado. As just noted, the Diamondbacks suffered a one-run loss on Friday, before their bats 'warmed' with eight runs on 10 hits yesterday.

Sunday's pitching matchup features the Reds' Jose De Leon and Arizona's Luke Weaver. De Leon is in his fifth season but has shown little promise. However, he had a solid outing in his 2021, pitching five innings in the Reds' 5-3 win over Pittsburgh, allowing two runs on solo HRs. Luke Weaver started with St Louis (2015-17) and was 15-17 with a 4.79 ERA. He showed promise in his first season with Arizona (2019), going 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts. However, Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, going 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. His 2021 debut saw him allow three ERs in 5.2 innings at Coors Field, as Arizona beat the Rockies 10-8.

'Leaning' on De Leon is NOT the key to this play and although it's easy to make a case going against Weaver, that is not the key either (but it DOESN'T hurt). The Reds ended a six-year playoff drought last season by going 31-19 and this year's team owns a lineup that will have them competing for a postseason spot again in 2021. The Reds lead all of MLB with a .312 team BA (only THREE other teams are hitting .280-plus), as well as in runs scored with 66 (8.25 per game). Compare that with Arizona, which owns a team BA of .214 (basically 100 points LOWER than Cincy) and averages just 4.75 RPG. It's Cincinnati bats over the Arizona bats, as the Reds open the season with three straight series' wins and move to 7-2. Watch out NL Central!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 2:10 ET.

The Kansas City Royals opened the season 2-0 by scoring 25 runs in their first two games against the Rangers, However, the Royals have lost THREE of four while scoring a total of just eight runs after a 6-0 loss Thursday at Chicago (KC has scored FIVE runs in the team's three losses). The Chicago White Sox opened by losing THREE of four in Anaheim vs the Angels but have rebounded to win THREE of four. Both teams are 4-4 after a rare Friday off and a Saturday postponement.

Mike Minor (1-0, 6.00 ERA) starts for KC and Dylan Cease (0-0, 5.79 ERA) for Chicago. Minor had a couple of solid seasons for Texas in 2018 (12-8) and 2019 (14-10) but was 0-5 (5.60 ERA) in seven starts for the Rangers in 2020 when he was traded to Oakland, where in five appearances (four starts) he was 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA. Naturally, KC signed him to a two-year deal for $18 million (can't make this stuff up). Minor picked up the victory in his start with KC, despite allowing four ERs in his first three innings, before settling down with three more shutout innings as the Royals came from behind to defeat the Texas Rangers 11-4.

Two White Sox starters have ERAs of 0.00, while the other three are over 4.00. Cease's ERA is 5.79 ERA after getting no decision in a 7-4 loss to the Angels. He struggled in the first inning of his April 4 start, allowing a 451-foot HR to Shohei Ohtani, before settling down. He finished allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings. Cease has made 26 starts for Chicago the last two seasons (9-11) with a 5.00 ERA.

However, my play on Chicago has little to do with Cease. The Royals have only had one close game (decided by one or two runs) in their six decisions. They scored in double figures in their first two games and secured their third win with a 3-0 shutout. Yet, they have scored a total of five runs in their three losses. Meanwhile, the White Sox's four wins have come by at least four runs, with three of them coming by six runs. That's in stark contrast to their four losses, which have come by one, two, three and four runs. More notably, Minor is a lefty and Chicago was 14-0 vs left-handed starters last season (averaged 7.1 RPG) plus has opened 3-0 against them in 2021, averaging 9.3 RPG. You want to 'step in front of that train?' Not I.

Good luck...Larry

My free play is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.

The Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly, as Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Tampa Bay pounded the Yankees 10-5 in Friday's home opener and then won 4-0 on Saturday. The Rays are 12-2 in the last 14 regular-season meetings and 15-4 including their five-game victory in last season's ALDS.

The Yankees' 3-5 start leaves them in last-place in the AL East as they look to avoid a three-game sweep Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field. New York's Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will take the mound nearly four years to the day of his major league debut also against Tampa Bay. Speaking of Tampa Bay, the Rays will use an opener in Brett Honeywell, who has been called up for his major league debut. Honeywell is making his debut after enduring Tommy John surgery in 2018, an operation to repair a broken bone in 2019, a nerve decompression procedure last May and arthroscopic surgery in December. He is 31-19 with a 2.88 ERA in 79 career minor league appearances and is pitching for the first time since 2017 with Triple-A Durham.

Montgomery knows a little bit about missing time due to injury. This is his second season since recovering from missing most of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. He was 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts (team was 5-5) last season. However, there were reasons to be optimistic about Montgomery, who pitched well during spring training going 3-0 with 0.90 ERA in three starts. He made his 2021 debut this past Monday in New York's 7-0 home win over Baltimore, pitching six scoreless innings with a 7-0 KW ratio. Let me also add that Montgomery started a postseason game for New York against Tampa Bay in 2020, allowing just one run in four innings of a 5-1 Yankees win. I'll back the Yankees to avoid the three-game sweep.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs. The Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and visited  Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1.

Friday's contest marked Philly's first road game of the season and was also the Braves' first home game. The starters were Zach Wheeler and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia. Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. However, Morton and the Braves turned the tables last night, winning 8-1. Morton allowed just ONE run in six innings, while Wheeler allowed three runs in 4.2 innings plus Philly's bullpen allowed FIVE runs in 3.1 innings.

The pitching matchup for Saturday is Zach Eflin (0-0, 1.29 ERA) of Philadelphia and Ian Anderson (0-0, 1.80) for Atlanta, the same pair who dueled last Sunday. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. He was excellent last Sunday vs the Braves, allowing just four hits and one ER in seven innings (8-1 KW ratio). Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). He countered Eflin last Sunday by allowing four hits and one ER over five innings (7-2 KW ratio).

I had Morton and Atlanta over Wheeler and Philly in last night's quick "re-hook." I'm back again with the very same set-up here. Anderson also made four playoff starts in 2020, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a KW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. This guy's the "real deal," while Eflin is 29-33 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.36 ERA in his 90 career appearances (85 starts). Want more? After last night's win, Atlanta is a MONEY-MAKING 54-21 in its last 75 games as a home favorite (72%). Second verse, same as the first.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET.

It's not Red Sox/ Yankees but the Rays/Yankees rivalry is gaining momentum quickly. Tampa Bay won the AL East by SEVEN games over New York in 2020 and then eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS by edging the Yankees 2-1 in the deciding Game 5 of the ALDS. Both teams enter Saturday's contest 3-4, after the Rays pounded the Yankees 10-5 10-5 in Tampa Bay's 2021 home opener on Friday afternoon. Tropicana Field's domed stadium had 9,021 fans in attendance for the unveiling of the two banners representing the clinching of the AL East Division and the AL pennant.

Getting the ball for the middle contest of this three-game series will be New York's Domingo German (0-1, 9.00) and Tampa Bay's Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50), German was 18-4 for the Yankees when he was placed on administrative leave by MLB pending an investigation of suspected domestic violence on September 19, 2019. It was confirmed on Sep 25 that he would not be eligible to participate in any baseball action for the remainder of 2019, including the postseason, German made just ONE start in 2020. German will make just his SECOND start since Aug. 20, 2019 on Saturday, after being roughed for four runs (three earned) in two innings of relief last Saturday.

Chris Archer was considered one of the stars of Tampa Bay's rotation from 2013 through 2018 but he was clearly overrated (see his stats during that time, if you don't believe me). He was traded to Pitts during the 2018 season and went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA. he then imploded in 2019, going 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1,41 WHIP in s 23 starts (Pirates were 8-15), Archer missed all of 202 with a health issue but signed a one-year, $6.5 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays on Feb 2, 20201. Archer lasted just TWO innings in his 2021 debut at Miami on April 4), allowing four runs (three earned).

My belief is that Archer is 'done,' so I'll back the Yankees to bounce back from Friday's shellacking. I'm giving German the benefit of the doubt, remembering his 18-4 season in 2019, when he had a MLB-best .818 winning percentage (note: Yanks won BOTH of his 2019 starts vs Tampa Bay).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season with a three-game series at Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Braves are looking for a FOURTH NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row), while Philadelphia opened the season seeking its first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The Phils swept the Braves 3-0 in the season's opening series for both teams, holding the Braves to just THREE runs.

Braves fell to 0-4 with a 6-5 Tuesday loss at Washington but then swept a Wednesday doubleheader (again, 7-inning games this season) by beating the Nats 7-6 and 2-0. As for the Phillies, they took two of three from the Mets and head to Atlanta for this three-game series at 5-1 (both teams had Thursday off). Tonight's contest marks Philly's first road game of the season and it's also the Braves' first home game. The starters are Zach Wheeler  and Charlie Morton, who squared off against each other last Saturday in Philadelphia.

Wheeler out-pitched Morton in that 4-0 Philly win, throwing seven shutout innings (allowed just ONE hit) with a 10-0 KW ratio. Morton pitched six innings, allowing three ERs on six hits in five innings. In this quick pitching 're-hook,' I'm siding with Morton and the Braves. The Braves signed Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston (14-7 and 15-3 in 2017 and 2018) and for Tampa Bay, when he went 16-6 in 2019. Moston was just 2-2 in nine starts in 2020 but he then led the Rays to wins in his first three playoff starts, allowing just one ER over 15.2 IP (0.57 ERA), before losing Game 3 of the World Series.

The Atlanta bats have been relatively quiet so far but in 21 home games at night vs righties last season, averaged 7.1 RPG. Atlanta is also a MONEY-MAKING 53-21 in its last 74 games as a home favorite. Expect Morton and Atlanta to prevail in this first game of the series, after their opening series in Philly went so poorly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies sure got no favors from the scheduling 'gods,' who sent the D'backs to San Diego to open against the Padres, while the Rockies opened with a four-game home series against the defending world champion Dodgers. Both teams lost THREE of their four respective games then had Monday off, before opening a three-game series at Coors Field on Tuesday. The D'backs took Tuesday's game 10-8 in 13 innings, before the Rockies won 8-0 on Wednesday.

Taking the mound for Thursday's rubber game of this three-game series will be Arizona's Merrill Kelly (0-1, 6.75 ERA) and Colorado's Jon Gray (0-0, 1.80 ERA). Kelly (32 years old) is in his third major-league season after a lengthy stint in South Korean baseball. He made his major-league debut in 2019, finishing 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 32 starts as a rookie for the Diamondbacks. He was limited to five starts in 2020, going 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He struggled in his 2021 season debut, lasting just four innings (made 94 pitches!) while giving up three runs on five hits and three walks.

Jon Gray has had an up-and-down career with the Rockies (45-37 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.34 WHIP entering 2021), showing signs of being an ace and at other times searching for consistency. However, Gray pitched very well in his first start Saturday against the Dodgers. He left after facing one batter in the sixth, having shut out the defending champs through five innings, but full-body cramps forced him out of a game (Colorado was leading 2-0 at the time). 

Neither pitcher has had any success against the team they are facing in this one but note that while both Arizona and Colorado are 2-4, the D'backs have been outscored 36-22 (-14), the Rockies have scored 37 runs while allowing 36 (+1). Arizona was just 9-21 on the road in 2020, averaging a measly 3.8 RPG. The D-backs have opened 2-4 on the road in 2021 and are averaging 3.7 RPG, despite scoring 10 runs on Tuesday (other five games have seen them average 2.4 RPG). Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. Colorado has played all six of its games this season at Coors, averaging 6.2 RPG with 11 HRs. Colorado gets the "W" and picks up the series win.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET.

The 2-3 Brewers and 3-2 Cubs meet this afternoon at Wrigley Field for the rubber-game of their three-game series. The Cubs won two of three from Pittsburgh to open the season and then beat the Brewers 5-3 on Monday, before the Brewers bounced back with a 4-0 shutout win on Tuesday. That win snapped a three-game Milwaukee slide, which had won Opening Day at Minnesota, before dropping the last two of that series and the first game at Wrigley on Monday.

Today's pitching matchup features an Opening Day "reset" for Brandon Woodruff of Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks Chicago, six days after each started the season for their respective teams. Neither staff ace pitched well, as Woodruff lasted just four innings, giving up three early runs as Milwaukee fell into a 3-1 hole before rallying for a 6-5 victory in 10 innings. Hendricks had an even shorter opener than Woodruff, lasting just THREE innings while giving up three runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts.

Woodruff made 13 starts last season, going 3-5 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP (Brewers were 6-7 in his starts). However, he was 11-3 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 22 starts in 2019, with the Brewers going a MONEY-MAKING 18-4. Woodruff is 0-1 with a 4.65 ERA in eight career appearances against the Cubs (six starts / team is 4-2). Hendricks did not have a start shorter than 4.1 innings last season, while posting a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts last season (he was 6-5 and the Cubs 7-5). He's faced the Brewers 23 times in his career (most vs any opponent) and while he's 9-6 (Cubs are 13-10), he's posted a 2.84 ERA over 136.1 innings (that's some pretty good pitching!).

I expect a BIG bounce-back effort here by Hendricks, who had a 1,85 ERA (.195 BAA) at Wrigley last season, after posting a 2.04 home ERA (.206 BAA) in 2019. Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:10 ET

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule. The two teams opened a three-games series in Seattle last night with Chicago winning 6-0, as Yasmani Grandal led the way with a HR and three RBI.

Taking the mound tonight will be Chicago's Lucas Giolito (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and Seattle's James Paxton, who will make his 2021 season debut. Giolito is considered Chicago's ace. He was 14-9 (3.41 ERA / 1.06 WHIP) in 2019 for a White Sox team that was just 72-89. He was a more modest 4-3 in 12 stars last season in 12 stars (Chicago was 7-5) but again posted a solid ERA (3.48) and an excellent WHIP (1.04). He made one playoff start last season, allowing just two hits and one ER over seven innings with an 8-1 KW ratio. Giolito got a no-decision in his 2021 season opener but allowed two ERs on two hits with an 8-2 KW ratio in 5.1 innings.

The 32-year-old Paxton returned to the Mariners as a free agent this February after spending the past two seasons with the New York Yankees. He began his career with Seattle, where he notched 41 victories across his first six seasons from 2013-18. "It's great to have him back," Mariners manager Scott Servais said. "I know what he's going to mean to our ballclub this year. We've got to keep him healthy, keep him going, making every turn. You're going to look up at the end of the year and he's going to have a big season. There's no question in my mind." I tend to disagree. I've always believed that Paxton is overrated  and even in his two best seasons with Seattle (12-5 in 2017 and 11-6 in 2018), allowed more hits 364 than innings pitched (296.1). When he went 15-6 for the Yankees in 2019, he allowed 186 hits in 150.2 innings. He made just five starts for New York last season with an ERA of 6.64 and a WHIP of 1.48.

For those of you who were NOT with me last night on the White Sox, I give you a heads up! The fact that Paxton is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. The White Sox did drop THREE of four games vs the Angels to open the season but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 combined runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Last night vs another lefty (Sheffield), the White Sox won 6-0. Why 'get off this train' now?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies sure got no favors from the scheduling 'gods,' who sent the D'backs to San Diego to open against the Padres, while the Rockies were tasked to open with a four-game home set vs the defending world champion Dodgers. Both teams lost THREE of their respective games, Arizona opening with a win before losing three in a row, while the Rockies lost the first three, before salvaging the final game of the series. Both teams had Monday off and tonight opened a three-game series at Coors Field.

Luke Weaver (1-9, 6.58 ERA in 2020) is making his first start of the season for Arizona, while Colorado counters with German Marquez (0-0, 2.25 ERA in 2021). Weaver was just plain AWFUL in 2020, as the D'backs lost 10 of his 12 starts and his 'sorry' ERA was matched by his 1.56 WHIP. Meanwhile, Marquez went 11-7, 14-11 and 12-5 for the Rockies from 2017-19, before going 4-6 with a 3.75 ERA in 13 starts (Rockies were 7-6).

Colorado was not dominant at Coors Field last season, going just 12-18 but the Rockies did average 5.1 RPG in their home park. In Weaver, they get to face a pitcher coming off a MISERABLE 2020 season (see above) and one who has posted a 7.40 ERA in six career games against the Rockies, including five starts. Weaver will take the mound for an Arizona team that was just 9-21 on the road in 2020, averaging a measly 3.8 RPG. As noted, the D-backs have opened 1-3 on the road in 2021 and had scored just a total of just five runs in their first three games, before scoring seven times in a one-run loss on Sunday. That still leaves them averaging just 3.0 RPG. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Chi White Sox at 10:00 ET.

The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 last year, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. However, Chicago opened the season with a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels and lost THREE of four (more later). The White Sox head to Seattle for a three-game series beginning Monday to face a Mariners team that opened by taking TWO of three from the Giants. Seattle went 89-73 in 2018 but followed by falling to 68-94 in 2019 and then went 27-33 in last season's 60-game schedule.

Taking the mound tonight will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Carlos Rodon and Seattle's Justus Sheffield. Chicago had high hopes for Rodon (third overall pick in the 2014 draft) when the White Sox named him their Opening Day starter in 2019. However, he has made just 11 appearances over the past two seasons, mainly because of Tommy John surgery in May 2019 on his left elbow. He was non-tendered during the offseason before re-signing with the White Sox on Feb 1. He then earned a spot in the rotation by posting a 1.32 ERA in four spring training appearances (13.2 innings in which he also posted a 16-1 KW ratio). Sheffield was 4-3 with a 3.58 ERA in 10 starts last season (team was 6-4, winning his final four starts of 2020). The jury is still out on Sheffield, as entering last season he had made just 11 MLB appearances (seven stars), posting a 6.70 ERA. His only previous start against the White Sox came in 2019, when he allowed six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings.

The fact that Sheffield is a lefty does NOT bode well for him or Seattle. The White Sox went 14-0 vs left-handed starters in 2020, averaging 7.1 RPG. I note at the top that the White Sox dropped THREE of four games vs the Angels but looking closer, you'll find that the three losses came against right-handed starters (scored only 10 runs) while the "W" was against the left-handed Heaney, a 12-8 Chicago win. Adding to that "perfect" stat, is that Rodon has made three career starts vs Seattle, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA (Chicago is 3-0). LOTS to like about Chicago in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL West) is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus games each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. However, the Astros just 'ran over' the A's in Oakland to open the 2021 season, sweeping the four-game series against the defending AL West champs while outscoring them 35-9, becoming just the fourth team in MLB history to score at least eight runs in its first four games to start the season.

Houston heads to Anaheim for a brief to-game series against the Angels. The Angels opened the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. However, after four games, the Angels are 'smiling.' LA  took THREE of four from the White Sox, who were a 'sexy' pick to win this year's AL pennant.

Monday's pitching matchup features Houston's Luis Garcia and LA's Jose Quintana. Garcia will be making just his SECOND career major league start. Garcia made five appearances last season, four out of the bullpen, including one against the Angels in which he gave up one run in 4.1 innings. As for Quintana, he's making his Angels debut after signing as a free agent after nine years in Chicago, 5 1/2 with the White Sox and 3 1/2 with the Cubs. Quintana was limited to just four games (one start) and 10 innings last season because of a freak injury when he cut his thumb while washing dishes. He ultimately had surgery on the thumb and missed two months. Quintana pitched for Joe Maddon in 2017-19 with the Cubs. "He's a guy who normally eats up innings," Maddon said. "He has a repeatable, compact delivery and a nice arm stroke. His success, to me, relies on good game planning. He just needs a little direction on how to attack people ... how to use the really good stuff he already has."

Garcia is at best an "unknown quantity," while Quintana has been an effective starter for parts of his MLB career. It sure doesn't hurt that in his SEVEN career starts vs Houston he owns a 2,53 ERA with his teams having gone 6-1. Make that 7-1 after tonight.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 29-31 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. The Oakland A's won the West in 2020 with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years.

The A's won SEVEN of the teams 10 regular season meetings in 2020 but then the Astros won the ALDS 3-1. The 2021 schedule has the teams opening with four games in Oakland While Oakland fans wasted no time on Opening Day reminding the Houston Astros of their 2017 cheating scandal, the Astros have done all their 'talking' on the playing field, taking the first THREE of this four-game series in dominating fashion.8-1, 9-5 and 9-1, out-hitting the A's 36-17. Adding insult to injury, Houston's bullpen has limited the A's to three ERs on nine hits in 12.1 innings (2.19 ERA), while the Astros have 'lit up' Oakland's relief staff to the tune of 17 hits and 13 ERs in 12.1 innings (9.49 ERA).

So why take the A's here? First off, I like Sean Manaea (3.27 ERA in 13 career regular-season starts against the Astros) over Jose Urquidy (just 12 MLB starts the last two regular seasons) plus will note that Houston was just 0-4 in its only four away day games vs lefties last season, averaging just 2.0 RPG. Obviously, that's a small sample size but what isn't is that the A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650). A's avoid the dreaded four-game home sweep here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bounce-Back Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 1:05 ET.

It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season but the Phillies prevailed 3-2 on Opening Day at Citizens Bank Park (Braves were held to just seven hits)  and after taking Friday off, the Phils bested the Braves again 4-0 on Saturday (braves were held to just ONE hit). The Phillies have limited the Braves to a combined TWO runs and eight hits with 24 strikeouts in back-to-back wins. What's going on? 

Atlanta looks to 'stop the bleeding' (more accurately, the Braves need to HIT!) by sending Ian Anderson to the mound to face Zach Eflin. Eflin made 10 starts last season and went 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA, striking out 70 and walking only 15 in 59 innings. In two starts against the Braves in 2020, Eflin was 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, striking out 14 in 12.1 innings. Anderson made six starts as a rookie in 2020 and went 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA, striking out 41 and walking only 14 in 32.1 innings (1.08 WHIP). 

The Braves scored 348 runs last season (5.80 RPG), just ONE run less than the world champion Dodgers scored. BTW...The Braves led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS, before LA came back to win the next three. Speaking of the postseason, Anderson made four playoff starts, allowing just two ERs on 11 hits over 18.2 innings (0.96 ERA) with a kW ratio of 24-10 (1.13 WHIP) and an opponent's BA of average .172. Looking to avoid a sweep, Atlanta has just the pitcher to lead the way, Meanwhile, expect MVP Freddie Freeman (0-for-7) and Marcell Ozuna (0-for-3 with three strikeouts on Saturday) bats to finally 'wake up!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:07 ET.

The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning Thursday night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win over the White Sox. However, Chicago bounced back Friday with a 12-8 win, pounding out 13 hits (including Jose Abreu's grand slam), while securing the "W" with a five-run 9th (led 7-6 after eight innings). Saturday's pitching matchup features Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Lynn came to the White Sox in a trade from the Texas Rangers for pitcher Dane Dunning and a minor leaguer. The 33-year-old was a workhorse last season, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury).

Alex Cobb will make his debut with the Los Angeles Angels, after being acquired in an offseason trade with the Baltimore Orioles. Cobb was just awful in his last three seasons in Baltimore, going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. However, that's in stark contrast to his stay with Tampa Bay, when he went 48-35 with a 3.50 ERA in 115 starts. Cobb played for Maddon in the first four years of his career (2011-14) and had the best season of his career in 2013, when he went 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts. The Angels are hoping a reunion with manager Joe Maddon will help the right-hander rediscover the success he had early in his career.

"Hope" is LA's theme here in 2021. The Angels enter the 2021 season HOPING to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. If only wishing could make things true!

The Chicago White Sox did much more than 'hope' in 2020, as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations are high (and well-deserved), as the White Sox look to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. I'm a "big fan" of Lynn, who made  three starts against the Angels in 2020, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 17-5 KW ratio. It's Lynn over Cobb here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 4:05 ET.

It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season and on Opening Day, Philadelphia shut down Atlanta's offense (Braves were held to just seven hits) at Citizens Bank Park in a 3-2 win. Taking the mound for Atlanta on Saturday will be Charlie Morton, while Philadelphia counters with Zack Wheeler.

The Braves signed Charlie Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston and Tampa Bay in recent seasons. He's a 14-year vet (37 years old) and he's expected to help stabilize the staff until ace Mike Soroka returns and provide leadership to a young, talented rotation. Zack Wheeler was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished  4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA.

The two pitchers had very different results this spring, as Morton did not allow a run in 10/1  innings during three appearances in the Grapefruit League, while Wheeler posted a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings. The Phillies fared poorly vs righthanders in 2020 (just 15-23 overall), while the Braves averaged 6.1 RPG vs righties over 48 games in 2020. I'm expecting Morton to help this Atlanta rotation and for the Braves' offense to bounce-back off a poor Opening Day effort.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:38 ET.

The LA Angels enter the 2021 season looking to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. The Angels opened the 2021 season last night with a 4-3 home win over the Chicago White Sox, who last year made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917.

The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win. Taking the mound tonight in the second contest of this four-game series will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2020) and LA's Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.66 ERA). Keuchel has had more success against the Angels than any other team, going 12-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 17 career starts (teams 1are 13-4). As for Heaney, he is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five career starts vs the White Sox (teams are 4-1) but in his last two meetings with Chicago (both in 2019), he allowed 10 hits and seven ERs over 13 innings (4.85 ERA).

However, here's the 'clincher.' The Angels were just 2-5 at home vs lefties in 2020 (1-4 in night games), averaging 3.4 PG. Meanwhile, the White Sox were  PERCET 14-0 (averaging 7.1 RPG) in 2020. Keuchel over Heaney, who has dealt with injuries and inconsistency since coming from Miami in a three-team trade before the 2015 season, just seems to "make sense!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET.

The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy, who retired. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but will get Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz.

As for the Mariners, they believe they are on the cusp of playoff contention. Kyle Lewis is Seattle's first Rookie of the Year since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 and combined with Gold Glove winners JP Crawford and Evan White, gives the Mariners a solid defensive foundation. The starting rotation has potential if Jim Paxton can rediscover his past form and if the Mariners may have a star in rookie Chris Flexen. 

Giants will start right-hander Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.62 ERA in 2020), while Seattle counters with left-hander Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.11 ERA). As noted, the Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He's made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. Meanwhile, Gonzales' 7-2 record in 2020, followed a 13-19 season in 2019. That gives him a .645 winning percentage (20-11) for a Seattle team that's gone just 95-127 (.428) in that span.

I have NO faith in Gausman, while I believe Gonzales will win 15-plus games for the improved Mariners in 2021. Note that the Giants were just 5-1 vs lefties in road night games last season. Seattle wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My MLB 10* Opening Day Game of the Year is on the Oakland A's at 10:07 ET.

The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a  shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 21-39 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. Houston lost George Springer to the Blue Jays (he signed a $150 million, six-year contract) but Altuve, Bregman and Correa are still around. Houston opens the season in Oakland, as it seeks to win its fourth AL West title in five seasons.

The Oakland A's won the West with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years. The A's also lost a key player to the Blue Jays, as SS Semien (33 HRs and 92 RBI in 2019) signed a one-year deal in Toronto. Speaking of young pitchers, Oakland's rotation is anchored by Montas, Manaea and Luzardo. Oakland also signed Trevor Rosenthal to take over as closer, hoping he returns to the form which saw him earn 93 saves for StL in 2014 and 2015.

Houston ended Oakland's season with a 3-1 series win in the ALDS (Played in Los Angeles) but EIGHT of the teams' 10 regular-seasons meetings last year were held in Oakland. The A's took seven of the 10 en route to the AL West regular-season crown, as the Astros finished SEVEN games back. Note that all three Astros wins were in seven-inning affairs, as the teams played two doubleheaders, one in each city. Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 in 2020) and Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA) get the Opening Day start. Greinke is 9-3 (3.16 ERA) in 18 career starts vs Oakland but his teams are just a modest 10-8. Bassitt has made nine career stats vs Houston, going 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA (team is 5-4).

Looking at just last season, Greinke had a good first start against Oakland (6 IP and zero ERs in a no-decision) but in his last three, allowed 11 ERs over 15.2 innings for a 6.32 ERA. Bassitt made four starts vs Houston, going 1-1 (team was 2-2) but in the two wins (both in Oakland), he allowed just one ER in 14 innings. The A's outscored the Astros 38-25 in 10 regular season meetings but then faltered in the playoffs. Drawing the Astros to open the 2021 season has to have the A's poised to exact some revenge and jump start the new season. The A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650).  The fact that the A's will be able to have fans at the Coliseum, with state rules allowing 20% capacity to start the season, can't hurt.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET.

It's fair to say that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but aren't the Braves still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title? Atlanta bolstered its pitching rotation by signing veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to one-year contracts and when Mike Soroka (a 13-game winner and All-Star in 2019) is fully recovered, the rotation could be one of baseball's best. Max Fried was fifth in NL Cy Young Award balloting, while Anderson also has the makings of a future ace after a stellar rookie season. The offense is led by MVP Freeman and Ozuna providing a powerful 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Phillies are seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. Everyone returns everyone in the starting lineup and Nola and Wheeler are a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation but overall, the rotation has little depth. Then there's the team's bullpen, dismal bullpen and its 7.06 ERA. Many additions have been made in that regard and things have to get better, as it couldn't get worse.

Max Fried is making his first Opening Day start for Atlanta, coming off a 2020 season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts (Braves were 10-1). Aaron Nola will make his FOURTH consecutive Opening Day start for the host Philadelphia Phillies, the most by a Philadelphia pitcher since Hall of Famer Steve Carlton took the mound for 10 openers in a row from 1977-86. Nola was 7-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts in 202 (Phils were 5-7 in his starts). Fried has made five career starts vs Philly and is 3-1 but owns a 5.40 ERA (Braves are 4-1). However, note that he made two starts against them last season, allowing just one ER in 10 innings for an 0.90 ERA. He beat Nola 11-2 in one of those starts, as Nola allowed four ERs in just 2.3 innings. Nola is 11-6 (3.05 ERA) in 20 career starts vs the Braves, with Phily going 12-8.

The Braves came within one win of the World Series, taking a 3-1 lead in the NLCS before the Dodgers rallied to win the last three games. That bitter disappointment has only strengthened the Braves' resolve this season and I'm backing them here on Opening Day behind Fried, who started 16 games for Atlanta last season (including the playoffs), with the Braves going 14-2!!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

Following Tampa Bay's improbable 8-7 Game 4 win, the Dodgers took Game 5 by a 4-2 score and now stand ONE win away from the team's first World Series title since 1988. LA staked Clayton to a quick 3-0 lead scored twice in the third to close within a run. Then came the game-turning bottom of the 4th. The Rays had first and third with no outs but Kershaw got a pop up and a strike out. Then, instead of relying on a two-out hit from Kevin Kiermaier, Margot broke for home. Kershaw stepped off the rubber and got the ball to Barnes just in time. The Dodgers extended the lead to 4-2 in the 5th and three LA relievers pitched 3.1 scoreless innings to seal the win.

The Game 6 pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, when Blake Snell takes on Tony Gonsolin. The Rays staked Snell to a 5-0 lead and he didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. However, four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all with a 6-4 victory. Snell won the Cy Young in 2018 but was a modest 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were 7-4). In five starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA (Rays are 3-2)

I found the choice of starting Gonsolin in Game 2 a little strange. He was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he'd allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin threw just 41 pitches in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. he was pitching on just two days' rest in Game 2 of the World Series and got just four outs, throwing 29 pitches while allowing a solo HR and one walk. He hasn't pitched since, so he takes the mound well-rested but having allowed eight ERs over just 7.2 postseason innings in 2020, on six hits with almost as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). His ERA is 9.39 and his WHIP is 1.70.

Up 3-2, LA is a strong favorite to the series, with emerging ace Walker Buehler waiting to pitch on full rest in Game 7. However, I'll discuss a Buehler/Morton rematch on Wednesday, AFTER the Rays win Game 6 on Tuesday.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

The 2020 World Series got underway Tuesday night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of a team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season with an 8-3 victory. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk.

However, Game 2 told a very different tale, as Blake Snell took charge from the mound in the first four innings, while Brandon Lowe took charge at the plate. Lowe came in batting .083 (4-for-48) with one HR in his previous 13 postseason games but ended his slump in dramatic fashion. Lowe jump started the Rays' offense with a solo HR in the first inning off Tony Gonsolin, then hit a two-run shot in the fifth inning off Dustin May, as the Rays led 5-0 into the bottom of the 5th. Snell didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. Four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all. The Rays had 10 hits, the first time they reached double digits since Game 3 of their ALDS against the New York Yankees, a single-digit-hit skid that had lasted 10 games. The Dodgers used SEVEN pitchers in the loss but the good news (for both pitching staffs) is that Thursday is an "off day."

Game 3 is set for Friday and it features the best pitching matchup of the series. We could see a rematch of this Buehler/Morton showdown if the World Series is extended to a Game 7. However, that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season (zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers won both of his first two postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing. He squared off against Max Fried in Game 1 of the NLCS and allowed just one run in five innings but also surrendered five walks (LA lost 5-1, when the Braves scored FOUR times in the top of the 9th). He got a second chance against Fried and Atlanta in Game 6 and was excellent, pitching six scoreless innings with a 6-0 KW ratio, as the Dodgers sent the series to a Game 7 with a 3-1 victory. LA has won THREE of his four postseason starts with Buehler posting a 1.89 ERA.

Charlie Morton takes the mound for Tampa Bay and the Rays couldn't be happier that it's him on the mound with the series tied at one-all. Morton's career began back in 2008 with Atlanta but he was with Pittsburgh from 2009-15. In two of those seasons, he was just AWFUL, going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 2010 and 6-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 2014. The Pirates traded Morton to the Philadelphia Phillies but his 2016 season came to an abrupt end on April 23, when he suffered a hamstring injury running to first base in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers. He was placed on the disabled list the next day and on April 27 the Phillies announced Morton would miss the rest of the 2016 season with a torn hamstring. Then, on November 16, 2016, Morton signed a two-year, $14 million contract with the Houston Astros. One would have to ask why? He joined the Astros for the 2017 season with a career record of just 46-71 (.400).

However, Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694. Morton was no 'great shakes' in 2020, going 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA in nine starts (team was 5-4). However, he's 3-0 in 2020's postseason, allowing 11 hits and two runs (one earned) over 15.2 innings for an 0.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 17-4 KW ratio. In fact, Morton has won all FIVE of his starts in the playoffs for Tampa Bay over the last two years while recording a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Morton pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in Tampa Bay's Game 7 win over Houston, an effort makes him 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits. This is NOT a Game 7 but I'm "all over" Morton and the Rays in this Game 3. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET.

The 2020 World Series got underway last night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of the team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk.

Tampa Bay turns to Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young of his own in 2018, in Game 2, while the Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin. Snell was 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were). In four starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA. He enters off an outing in Game 6 of the ALCS in which he gave up two runs on three hits with four walks in four-plus innings and was CLEARLY unhappy about being removed. The Houston Astros won that game 7-4 but the Rays rebounded to win Game 7. The choice of Gonsolin seems a little strange to me. However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the World Series opener, "We just feel like we like him in this spot," Roberts referenced Gonsolin's recent bullpen experience, seemingly suggesting the 26-year old could be more of an opener Wednesday, pitching the first inning and perhaps a bit more if he is efficient. The Dodgers would turn it over to the bullpen from there. Alrighty then. 

Here's what I counter with. Yes, Gonsolin was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he's allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin just threw 41 pitches Sunday in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. Is it fair to say the Dodgers won, DESPITE Gonsolin's pitching? I think so and will back the resilient Rays here in Game 2.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the TB Rays at 8:09 ET.

Both LCS went the full seven games, although each followed a different path. The Rays owned the AL's best regular season record (40-20) and looked every bit the part of the AL's No, 1 seed when they opened a 3-0 lead over the Houston Astros in the ALCS. However, the Astros, who were able to make the expanded 2020 postseason field by finishing second in the AL West despite a 29-31 record, did NOT go easily. Houston had won 100-plus games in each of the previous three seasons and the core of that lineup was still around. Houston won Games 4 and 5 by identical scores of 4-3, before forcing a Game 7 with a 7-4 win in Game 6. Houston entered Game 7 looking to join the 2004 Boston Red Sox as the only teams to comeback from an 0-3 'hole' and win a seven-game series. However, the Rays took Game 7 by the score of 4-2 on the strength of Charlie Morton's pitching (5.2 scoreless innings), Randy Arozarena's two-run HR and a solo HR and sac fly from Mike Zunino. Arozarena was named ALCS MVPa and getting back to Morton, he improved to 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits.

The Dodgers owned MLB's best 60-game record this season (43-17) plus posted a plus-136 run differential that was 52 runs better than any other MLB team. It was 76 runs better than their NLCS opponent (Atlanta) but the Braves took a 3-1 series lead. LA fought back to win Game 5 (7-3) and Game 6 (3-1) setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 against Atlanta rookie Ian Anderson. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He took the mound Sunday night having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings, with the Braves winning all three of his starts. As for LA, manager Dave Roberts didn't name a starter until late afternoon. It turned out to be Dustin May, who allowed one run in one inning. Gonsolin followed and allowed two runs in two innings but then Treinen, Graterol and Urias combined for six scoreless and HITLESS innings. Trailing 3-2 in the 6th, pinch-hitter Enrique Hernandez tied it with a solo HR and then Cody Bellinger hit a go-ahead HR in the seventh inning, which turned out to be the game-winner. Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was named NLCS MVP with five HRs and 11 RBI in the seven games. 

So in the end, the team with the best record in the AL and the team with the best record in the NL, will meet in the 2020 World Series. Just the way it should be, right? That makes sense but I should note that it's only the FOURTH time in the wild-card era (since 1995)that the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series. The Game 1 starters will be Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow and LA's Clayton Kershaw.

The 6-foot-8 Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of the Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two ERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two), as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. The Rays then won his first three starts of the 2020 postseason, extending that run of winning starts to 11 in a row. That streak ended in Game 4 of the ALCS when the Astros refused to get swept by winning 4-3. Glasnow allowed four ERs in six innings and takes the mound tonight  2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four postseason starts (Rays are 3-1). He has struck out 25 in 19.1 innings but has served up six HRs.

Kershaw needs little introduction. He's won three CY Young awards (2011, 2013 and 2014) and Kershaw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 10 starts in the 2020 regular season (Dodgers were 8-2 in those starts). He opened the current postseason winning his first two starts, allowing three ERs over 14 innings (1.93 ERA) with a 19-1 KW ratio. However, his past playoff woes were on full display in his most recent outing, Game 4 of the NLCS. That contest was tied 1-1 after five innings but after the Braves shut the Dodgers down in the 6th, they sent 11 batters to the plate and scored six runs in the bottom of the sixth-inning, chasing Kershaw and breaking the game wide-open. Kershaw never got an out in the 6th, leaving after allowing four runs in five innings. The 10-2 loss put the Dodgers in an 0-3 'hole' but as we all know, LA rallied with THREE straight wins.

Kershaw's postseason history is a 'broken record.' He is just 11-12 with a 4.31 ERA in 35 career postseason appearances (28 starts) and in his two World Series appearances (2017 and 2018) he is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (four starts). The Dodgers are 1-3 in those four starts, as Kershaw has allowed 21 hits  and 16 ERs over 22.2 innings for a 6.35 ERA.

I just couldn't be comfortable backing Kershaw and Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has been masterful in 'working' his pitching staff. A Tampa Bay starter has only lasted six innings in just TWO of the Rays' 14 games. That said, Glasnow's two six-inning outings accounted for BOTH of them. I CAN'T resist taking this HUGE price with Glasnow against Kershaw.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET.

The Dodgers fell behind 0-2 in the NLCS but then came a 15-3 win in Game 3, spurred on by a record-setting 11-run 1st inning. However, the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA's season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. The Braves and Dodgers met in Game 6 Saturday night and it was a pitching rematch of Game 1, Fried vs Buehler. Fried opened his outing in Game 6 by getting Betts on a fly ball to center field but Seager hit a HR home run on a 0-1 curveball (note: he now has five HRs and 11 RBI, both records for a LCS in either league), while Turner crushed a sinker two pitches later for a second straight HR. After a walk to Max Muncy and a single from Will Smith, Cody Bellinger delivered a run-scoring single to center for a 3-0 advantage. The Braves had a prime scoring chance in the second inning, opening with singles from Travis d'Arnaud, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson to load the bases. However, Buehler escaped the jam by striking out Austin Riley and Nick Markakis, before Cristian Pache grounded out. The Dodgers NEVER looked back after that. Buehler pitched SIX scoreless innings (6-0 KW ratio), before three LA relievers closed out the 3-1 victory. Most notably, Kenley Jansen recorded the final three outs of Saturday's win. He struck three batters (on 12 pitchers) in the 9th inning of Game 5 in a non-save situation but last night's effort represented his first save since the Dodgers' first postseason game 17 days ago!

So here we are, getting set for a Game 7 in the NLCS, just like in the ALCS (Tampa Bay won that one, after blowing a 3-0 series lead). Jansen, who faced the bottom of the Braves' order, was helped by a sliding catch from Joc Pederson to open the inning, then got routine fly outs from Nick Markakis and Pablo Sandoval. Six pitches, three outs to force a Game 7. The Braves will start Ian Anderson, who made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He won his first two postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. In Game 2 of the NLCS, he allowed just ONE hit and no runs over four innings but struggled with his control and walked FIVE. He was removed after those four innings, with the Braves up 6-0. He'll take the mound tonight in this Game 7, having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings. However, the pressure will be great for a 22-year-old trying to help the Braves reach the World Series for the first time since 1999 (Anderson was born in 1998!).

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts declined to name a starter for the series finale, although he did admit he would lean on Tony Gonsolin (LA's Game 2 starter) for bulk innings at some point. Roberts essentially threw all of his ingredients on the cutting board, saying that he would even check on the availability of Clayton Kershaw for Game 7. Please God, no! The Dodgers are trying to get to the World Series for the third time in the past four seasons, where they lost in 2017 to the Astros and in 2018 to the Red Sox. LA has won EIGHT straight NL West titles but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since 1988 (Gibson/Hershiser). 

I'll repeat what I wrote in my Game 6 analysis, as it applies here, as well. "Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday!" Well here we are on Sunday and my bet says LA wins and moves on to the World Series to take on the Tampa Bays Rays, who had the AL's best record (just like LA had the NL's best record). A bonus for LA will be, the World Series will be played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Tx, where the Dodgers have just spent the last seven days battling the Braves, I don't care which pitcher  LA starts or brings in during the game but "PLEASE NO" Kershaw, unless LA explodes for another 11-run inning!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the TB Rays at 8:37 ET.

Houston's Alex Bregman had several Astros teammates watch the ESPN documentary of the '04 Red Sox's improbable ALCS win over the NY Yankees, when Boston climbed out of an 0-3 'hole' to win FOUR straight. As Saturday dawns, the Astros are trying to create their own biopic. Houston won Game 5 (4-3) when Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The Astros followed with a 7-4 win in Friday's Game 6 and have now joined those Red Sox as the only clubs in major league history to force a Game 7 after trailing a best-of-seven series by three games. Houston trailed 1-0 through four innings on Friday but a four-run 5th gave them a lead the team never relinquished. Houston extended its lead to 7-1 by the 7th inning and held on for the three-run victory.

All eyes now turn to the starting pitchers for Game 7. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. and Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton are former teammates, who squared off in Game 2. McCullers pitched a good game but was unable to overcome a throwing error by Jose Altuve in the first inning that led to a Manuel Margot three-run HR (all runs were unearned). He pitched seven innings and allowed just one more run, while striking out 11 without a walk. As for Morton, he pitched five scoreless innings. I had Morton in that game and will play him (and the Rays) again in Game 7 and here's why.

Here's what I noted about McCullers in my Game 2 analysis. He has made 93 career regular season appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) were pretty much in line with his career ones () but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, had a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His first postseason start came against the A's and he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs) but got bailed out, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Then came his Game 2 start. Sure, Altuve's error kept the first inning 'alive,' but McCullers didn't HAVE to give up a three-rub HR!!!

Moron's solid effort in Game 2 makes him 2-0 this postseason, allowing two runs (one earned) over 10 innings for an 0,90 ERA (11-3 KW ratio). He's now 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA over 11 postseason appearances (10 starts). This is a neutral site but I want Morton over McCullers, whose stats AWAY from his home park are VERY worrisome. Kevin Cash has done a masterful job with the Rays all season and while Dusty Baker has produced very good results as both a player and manager in his MLB career, he's yet to win "the big ones" as a manager. Houston's 2-0 sweep over Minnesota hardly counts, as the Twins haven't even won a SINGLE postseason game in their last 18 tries. As for getting past the A's, was that a big deal?  Oakland beat the Chicago White Sox 6-4 in its deciding Game 3 back on Oct 1, ending a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had also lost SIX straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS.

Does MLB history have room for a second team to overcome an 0-3 'hole?' My bet says N-O! The Lightning won this season's Stanley Cup and a win for the Rays here could make for a very special 2020 for the city of Tampa. BTW...I think Tampa fans are also counting on TB 12 to deliver a Super Bowl title, as well

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 4:38 ET.

The Dodgers' season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. Let's also not forget SS Corey Seager, who homered twice (the 2nd coming in LA's three-run 7th) in the Dodgers' 7-3, season-saving victory over the Braves. Seager 'flies under the radar' in LA's star-packed lineup but he now has 10 RBI in this NLCS, the most in a LCS since Nelson Cruz (Texas) set the record with 13 in 2011.

LA finally started to reach Atlanta pitching by scoring SEVEN runs in the final three innings of an 8-7 Game 2 loss. Then came a 15-3 win in Game 3 (record-setting 11-run 1st), before the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA still trails Atlanta 3-2 and must win Saturday and Sunday to reach the World Series, but Friday's win has to give them a real shot of confidence. The Dodgers will NEED that confidence as Atlanta will send Max Fried to the mound in Game 6, with LA countering with Walker Buehler (a rematch of the Game 1 starters).

Fried allowed just one run on four hits over six innings in Game 1, a contest not decided until the Braves broke open a one-all game with a four-run 9th. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves won 10 of his 11 starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. His Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Add in Atlanta's 5-1 win in Game 1 of this series and the Braves enter this game 13-1 in his 14 starts here in 2020.

Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers had won both of his postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing, before his Game 1 matchup with Fried. Buehler allowed just one run on three hits over five innings in that contest, although he walked FIVE batters.

 I've played on Fried MANY times this season (I had him over Buehler in Game 1 of this series) but I'll play the Dodgers in this one. The Braves have that great top of the lineup (Acuna, Freeman and Ozuna, two red-hot starters in Fried and Anderson plus a bullpen, that for the most part, has delivered this season. However, the pen allowed LA seven runs in the final three innings in Game 2, did little to 'stop the bleeding' in the Game 3 blowout and then there was last night. A.J. Minter delivered three scoreless innings, after which FIVE Atlanta relievers allowed SEVEN runs! As for LA, which has had bullpen woes, SIX relievers handled seven innings behind starter Dustin May allowed one run on four hits with a 7-1 KW ratio). Blake Treinen dominated over two innings to earn the victory, Brusdar Graterol rebounded after a rough outing in Game 4 to retire all three batters he faced, and Kenley Jansen appeared to exorcise his demons in the ninth, striking out the side to end the game on 12 pitches in a non-save situation.

Do the Dodgers suddenly have late-inning options again? Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 6:07 ET.

The Astros were able to avoid getting swept by the Rays by winning 4-3 in Game 4. Altuve hit a solo HR in the 1st and then doubled in a run in the second for Houston but Tampa Bay's Arozarena hit a two-run HR to tie it in the fourth, before George Springer's two-run HR put the Astros up 4-2 in the 5th. Zach Greinke got into trouble in the top of the sixth but Dusty Baker went with his 'gut' and decided to leave Greinke in and he delivered by getting out of the inning. Tampa Bay scored once in the 9th but left a runner stranded on third when the game ended. The two teams went with "bullpen" games for Thursday's Game 5, as neither start saw the third inning. George Springer crushed John Curtiss' first pitch over the fence in left field to give the Astros the lead in a game in which they never trailed. Brandon Lowe homered in the third to tie it for Tampa Bay but Houston went up 3-1 on a two-run double by Brantley. Solo shots by Tampa's Arozarena and Choi sent the game to the 9th tied at 3-all. Astros closer Pressley stranded the potential go-ahead run on second base in the top of the ninth, before Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The game-ending blast came off Nick Anderson, who had entered a tie game in the bottom of the eighth and had retired all four batters he faced before Correa's blast.

As we head to Game 6, here's the setting. The Rays have now lost two in a row but still lead the best-of-seven series 3-2. As for the Astros, they became just the fourth team out of 39 ever to trail a playoff series 3-0 and even force a Game 6. The 2004 Boston Red Sox (in the ALCS against the NYY), are the only team to win a series after losing the opening three games. The Astros attempt to keep their season alive with a third straight win Friday night, as the Game 6 starters are Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and Tampa Bay lefty Blake Snell. It's a rematch of Game 1, which the Rays won 2-1. Framber pitched six innings in that contest, allowing two runs on four hits and four walks, while striking out eight. Snell earned the win by allowing one run on six hits and two walks over five innings with just two Ks.

Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner, has opened each of Tampa Bay's three series, sandwiching a loss to the New York Yankees (5 IP / 4 ERs) with wins over Toronto and Houston (10.2 IP / 1 ER). He has allowed five runs on 13 hits with a 15-6 KW ratio over 15.2 innings for a 2.87 ERA. Valdez will also be making his fourth appearance of the 2020 postseason. He entered Game 1 in the 5th inning of Houston's wild card series with Minnesota, with the Astros down 1-0. He delivered FIVE scoreless innings (and just two hits) to earn a 4-1 win when the Astros broke open a 1-1 tie with a three-run ninth. Framber followed with a 5-2 win over Oakland, pitching seven innings two runs allowed on five hits), before his Game 1 loss to Snell and the Rays in Game 1 of this ALCS.

The Rays looked like a "team of destiny" after winning a deciding Game 5 over the NYY and Cole and then taking a 3-0 lead in this series with Houston. However, after back-to-back 4-3 wins by the Astros, it's Houston, not Tampa Bay, that suddenly owns the positive "mojo" heading to Game 6. 

This is Snell's fifth season in the majors but I don't think he rates much of an edge at all over Framber (in his 3rd season), who has allowed just four ERs on 11 hits over 18 innings this postseason (2.00 ERA) with a 17-7 KW ratio. This Houston team has played 56 playoff games these last three-plus postseasons, winning EIGHT of 10 series. Can they come back and replicate what the  Red Sox did to the Yankees in 2004 (see above)? That is NOT the question here, rather it is can they force a Game 7? That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My LCS 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Dodgers at 6:05 ET.

The Braves and Dodgers opened their NLCS on Monday. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owned a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's was 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's was 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's was .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance was revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). 

"Something had to give" in Game 1, as the Braves and Dodgers were both 5-0 this postseason and the pitching matchup featured Fried (Braves were 12-1 in his starts in 2020) vs Buehler (Dodgers were 9-1 in his starts). Game 1 entered the 9th tied at one-all when Austin Riley hit a solo shot to put the Braves up. An Acuna double, an Ozuna single and an Albies HR, all, like Riley's hit, coming after 0-2 counts, gave the Braves a 5-1 win. Game 2 was expected to see Ian Anderson  go up against Clayton Kershaw. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He'd won BOTH postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. However, Kershaw was scratched with back spasms. Gonsolin was an under-appreciated hurler for Dave Roberts' squad this season. However, the jury is still out on how he will fare in his first postseason appearance.

Here's the answer. Anderson allowed just one hit and struck out five in four scoreless innings but his outing was cut short after he gave up five walks and threw 85 pitches. As for Gonsolin, he was fine through three innings but then allowed a two-run HR to Freddie Freeman in the 4th. He was chased in the 5th inning, when Atlanta added FOUR more runs (Gonsolin was charged with five ERs in 4.1 innings). The Braves extended the lead to 7-0 in the top of the 7th but Corey Seager hit a three-run HR in the bottom of the 7th. It was 8-3 entering the bottom of the 9th when the Dodgers scored FOUR times, before Cody Bellinger was left on third base when A.J. Pollock's groundout ended the rally.

So here we are. MLB's most-dominant team this COVID-shortened season is now in an 0-2 'hole' against the Braves, who are a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs. Heading into the 7th inning of last night's game, Atlanta pitching had allowed just SIX runs (five came in Its 9-5 Game 1 win over Miami) through 64 innings, before FIVE relievers allowed SEVEN runs over the last three innings to the Dodgers in Game 2. The Game 3 starters will be Julio Urias for LA (Kershaw is still unavailable) and Kyle Wright for Atlanta.

Urias made 18 appearances (15 starts) for LA back in 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He then made just eight appearances (five starts) in 2017 and 2018 combined, before making 37 appearances (eight starts) last season, going 4-3 with a 2.49 ERA. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) this season, going 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a .220 BAA, as the Dodgers went just 5-5 in his starts. However, he's started twice in the postseason, a short three-inning stint in Game 1 of the wild card round against Milwaukee that LA won 4-2. He then pitched five innings and got the "W" in LA's 12-3 series-clinching Game 3 win over the Padres.

In 2017 and 2018, Wright made 11 appearances (four starts) for the Braves, going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. He was hardly much better in 2020, making eight starts and going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (Braves managed to go 4-4 in his starts). However, he pitched SIX scoreless innings in Atlanta's Game 3 series-clinching 7-0 win over Miami (allowed three hits with seven Ks). Will the Braves just "keep winning?" I find it hard to believe the Dodgers' offense, which HAD to gain some confidence after last night's seven-run outburst the last three innings, WON'T be able to reach Wright, who is just NOT much of a pitcher, despite his effort vs Miami (see above). Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Urias had a solid season and in two postseason appearances in 2020, has allowed just one run (unearned at that) on four hits over eight innings with an 11-1 KW ratio. This price is typically outside of my 'range' but in the postseason, one HAS to be willing to 'lay a little extra juice' every once in a while. That time is RIGHT HERE!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 8:40 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays eked out a 2-1 win in Game 1 on Sunday night and then came back with a 4-2 in Game 2, late Monday afternoon. A two-out throwing error by Astros second baseman Jose Altuve brought Manny Margot to the plate with two on in the bottom of the first and he hit Lance McCullers second pitch over the fence in center to give Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead, one which the Rays never relinquished. Margot then made the "catch of the postseason" in the top of the second, when Houston's George Springer came up with two outs and runners on second and third. Springer hit a fly down the right field line that kept drifting into foul territory toward the wall but Margot made the grab as he hit the wall and then he went over it and fell face first to the concrete below, quickly getting up to hold up his glove, displaying that he made the catch.

The Houston Astros are in desperate need of a win in Game 3, or this ALCS is all but over. Houston manager Dusty Baker insists his message to his team is simple. "I'm not going to have a message other than, 'Hey boys, we got to keep swinging it,'" Baker said Monday after Houston's 4-2 setback in Game 2. "That's all you can do. Talk is cheap. We just got to find some holes." More in a bit.

The pitching matchup will be Ryan Yarbrough for Tampa Bay and Jose Urquidy for Houston. Yarbrough made 38 appearances in 2018 (just six starts) but put together a 16-6 season with a 3.91 ERA. In 2019, 14 of his 28 appearances were starts, as he went 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He was mainly a starter in 2020, as NINE of his 11 appearances were as a starter. He was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, as the Rays went 4-5 in his starts. Urquidy made nine appearances in 2019 (seven starts), going 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA. He made just five appearances in 2020 (all starts), going just 1-1 (team was 2-3) but posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .206 BAA.

This will be Yarbrough's first career playoff start, while Urquidy has started twice this postseason. He was solid in Houston's 3-1 Game 2 win over Minnesota (4.1 IP / 2 hits / 1 ER) but allowed four HRs in 4.1 innings of a 9-7 Game 3 loss to Oakland. Tampa Bay is looking like a team of destiny and manager Kevin Cash has masterfully used his deep and talented bullpen. However, the main core of this Houston team has been together for the last FOUR seasons and I expect them to bounce back here. Dusty is right when he said his team has just "got to keep swinging it! The Astros left seven runners on base over the first four innings in Game 2 and for the series. have scored just three runs and left 21 runners on base. Meanwhile, the Rays are up 2-0, with a modest 10 hits (team BA of .169). For at least this contest, it's Houston's 'day!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitchers Showdown is on the Atl Braves at 8:08 ET.

The Braves beat the Marlins 3-0 in Game 3 last Thursday, giving Atlanta a three-game sweep and its first trip to the NLCS since 2001. In the process, the Braves became just the SECOND team in MLB history to throw four shutouts in their first five playoff games, joining the 1905 New York Giants behind Hall of Famers Christy Mathewson and Joe McGinnity. The Braves have already pitched the most postseason shutouts in franchise history and are one shutout shy of tying the MLB record for most in a postseason set by the 2016 Indians over 15 games. Atlanta draws the LA Dodgers in the NLCS, who completed a three-game sweep of their own last Thursday with a 12-3 win over the Padres. Los Angeles advanced to its fourth NL Championship Series in five years and the team with MLB's best regular season record in 2020 (43-17), will be making their 14th NLCS appearance, matching the St Louis Cardinals for the most. 

The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owns a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's is 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's is 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's is .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance is revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60).

So why take Atlanta? I really believe Fried over Buehler gives them a starting pitcher edge plus the Dodgers are really concerned over closer Kenley Jansen's recent woes. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves went 10-1 in his starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start (5-0 KW ratio) vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. However, his Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings (4-0 KW ratio) but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Bottom line is the Braves are 12-1 in his 2020 starts!

Buehler made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. I realize the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season start, when he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However he earned just ONE win, as his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers have won both of his postseason starts but Buehler has gone just FOUR innings in each outing. I'm backing Fried and the Braves at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 4:07 ET.

Michael Brosseau hit a dramatic home run off Aroldis Chapman with one out in the eighth inning, as the Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Yankees 2-1 Friday night in the decisive Game 5 to reach the ALCS for the first time in 12 seasons. The Rays dominated the regular-season series with the Yankees 8-2 and were the AL's No. 1 seed and making the victory even more 'sweet' was that Tampa Bay's $29 million payroll (28th out of the 30 major league teams) was dwarfed by the Yankees, who had the third-largest payroll at $84 million. Waiting for the Rays were the Houston Astros, who followed three straight 100-win seasons by going just 29-31 during this year's COVID-shortened season but were able to get into an expanded 16-team playoff field by virtue of finishing second in the AL West. The Astros then swept AL Central champs Minnesota 2-0 in the wild card round and eliminated AL west champs Oakland 3-1 in an ALDS matchup.

Game 1 of the ALCS was last night and the Rays won 2-1. The Rays took a 1-0 series lead on the back of two timely hits and a pair of critical double plays, the latter coming with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the eighth inning. Randy Arozarena his fourth HR of this postseason. and Mike Zunino plated the go-ahead run with a first-pitch single in the fifth inning. Blake Snell allowed a solo HR in the first inning but that was all he allowed in five innings. The Rays' bullpen then produced another exceptional effort, as four relievers combined for FOUR scoreless innings. Houston wasted a solid effort by Valdez (two runs in six innings with eight Ks), as the Astros left 10 men on base and went 2 of 8 with RISP.

The Game 2 pitching matchup features Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His lone postseason start against the A's he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs). He got bailed out though, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Yes, this is again a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome.

Charlie Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, as he never allowed more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). His lone postseason start was Game 3 vs the Yankees and he delivered a solid effort in Tampa Bay's 8-4 win. He allowed two runs (just one earned) over five innings with six Ks. Morton is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 all-time playoff appearances (nine starts). I 'love' Morton over McCullers (plus Tampa Bay's bullpen is ALWAYS ready!) and expect the Rays to go up 2-0.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Series Game of the Year is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays went an AL-Best 40-20 during the regular season and captured the AL East title for the first time since 2010. In the process, the Rays took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees but I doubt anyone on Tampa Bay expected their ALDS with their hated rivals would be a 'walk in the park.' The Yankees won 9-3 ion Game 1, while the Rays rebounded to win Games 2 and 3, 7-5 and 8-4. However, the Yankees didn't flinch under the pressure of an elimination game, as Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres hit impressive HRs, while Jordan Montgomery and three relievers combined on a three-hitter. The Yankees beat the Rays 5-1 Thursday night to even the best-of-5 series at 2-all.

The Yankees are trying to reach the ALCS for the THIRD time in four seasons following eliminations by the Astros at that stage in 2017 and last season. Meanwhile, the Rays are trying to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2008, when they made it to their only World Series. Somewhat ironically, the pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow is a rematch of last year's ALDS Game 5 between Houston and Tampa Bay. Cole pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Astros in a 5-1 victory. while Glasnow was allowed four runs early, getting pulled after getting just EIGHT outs! Cole allowed three ERs over six innings of Game 1 with eight Ks and was backed by four HRs as the Yankees won 9-3 in the series opener. Glasnow had 10Ks in just five innings of Game 2 but allowed four ERs. However, the Rays won 7-5. Then again, don't ignore the fact that Game 2 was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow pitches. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision.

I'm NOT sure why MLB decided to play the four Division Series WITHOUT a day off (Championship Series will be contested without any days off, as well), as it has taxed the pitching staffs of all teams and in particular any that are forced to "go the distance." That's the case here with the Rays and Yanks. Cole will pitch on three days' rest for the FIRST in his career, while Glasnow is being asked to pitch on TWO days' rest. Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December and a game like this is why the Yankees signed him. Cole was DOMINANT in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and he's pitched Game 1 of New York's first two postseason series in 2020 and while his ERA of 3.46 is higher than expected, DON'T ignore that he's had 21 Ks against just two walks, while the Yankees have won 12-3 and 9-3. Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros last season, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. In two postseason starts in 2020, the Rays have won both and Glasnow owns an 18-3 KW ratio but he's also allowed six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA).

With a shortened season, Cole has NOT been overworked and while I'm no fan of working on three days' rest, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt (plenty of other big time pitchers have come through in situations like this over the last decade). However, Glasnow pitching on two days' rest makes absolutely NO sense to me and makes me wonder just how "little faith" Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has in Blake Snell. Yankees win and set up a Houston/New York ALCS which should be a real "grudge match!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 4) is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET.

The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1 (9-3 New York win), while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 giving him five HRs in his team's first four playoff games (tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez of the Rangers, in1996) but the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 plus more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. That allowed Tampa Bay to win 7-5 and even the series at one-all. Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning of Game 3 to become the first player with a HR in each of his team's first five games of a single postseason (has six HRs and 13 RBI in those five games) but it wasn't enough, The Rays' Randy Arozarena homered for the THIRD straight game on Wednesday, while Kevin Kiermaier and Michael Perez also went deep for the Rays, who beat Yankees 8-4 to move within one victory of reaching the ALCS for the first time in 12 years.

Wednesday's starting pitchers were veterans Charlie Morton Masahiro Tanaka. Morton got the win after holding the Yankees to two runs (one earned) on four hits in five innings. He struck out six and walked two in winning his FIFTH straight postseason decision. Tanaka took the loss after allowing five runs on eight hits in four-plus innings. He struck out four and walked one. One could hardly describe Game 4's starters as veterans. The Yankees will send Jordan Montgomery (46 career starts, 13-10 with a 4.14 ERA) makes his postseason debut in Game 4, after going 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA in 10 regular-season starts this year (Yanks were 5-5). The Rays will use side-arming right-hander Ryan Thompson as their opener on Thursday. Thompson is a rookie who made 25 regular season appearances (just ONE start, as an "opener"), going 1-2 with a 4.44 ERA and 1,41 WHIP  He's making his third appearance of the postseason, pitching 3.1 innings, including two innings in Game 1 against the Yankees. It's expected that Ryan Yarbrough (1-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 11 regular season appearances, including nine starts) could see extended work in hopes of getting the ball to high-leverage relievers Pete Fairbanks and Nick Anderson, who did not pitch Wednesday.

The Rays posted the AL's best record during the regular season (40-20) and took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees. They have now won TWO of three in the ALDS. Is this their year? It could still be but I'm backing the Yankees in this game. Montgomery pitched into the 6th inning in two of his last three regular season starts (pitched 4.2 innings in the other one) and that's what the Yankees need here. The Yankees have scored 40 runs in their six postseason games and I expect them to push this to a deciding Game 5, when they can hand the ball to Gerrit Cole but remember, with NO days off, Cole would be pitching on just three days' rest. Back to the present. Take the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 3) is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 and has now hit five HRs this postseason, tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez (Rangers, 1996) for HRs by a player in his team's first four playoff games. However, the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 and more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. Starter Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and four runs in five-plus innings, while walking three. His 10 strikeouts surpass the previous Rays postseason record of nine done three times. It was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow started. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision.

It's now Game 3 of the best-of-five series with the teams tied at one game apiece. The Rays will 'play the road team' in this one and send Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA in the regular season) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA). Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, never allowing more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). Morton is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Yankees and this will be his first postseason start of 2020 (last start was Sep 24 vs Philly). However, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts).

This is Tanaka's SEVENTH season with New York. He was 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). Season 7 has not measured up. He made 10 regular season starts, going 3-3 with 3.56 ERA (1.17 WHIP) as the Yanks were just 5-5. He started Game 2 of the Yankees wild card series with Cleveland and lasted only four innings, allowing five hits, three walks and six ERs (Yanks won anyway, 10-9!). Tanaka has an 11-5 career mark and 3.31 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays. He also is no stranger to the postseason, making nine starts with a 5-3 record and 2.70 ERA.

Not sure what NYY manager Bob Boone was doing with Garcia in Game 1. He became the youngest starter in NYY postseason history at 21 years old, 140 days and threw 27 pitches (16 strikes) and allowed one hit, a solo shot  but was pulled after ONE inning. Say what? TB manager Kevin Cash has one of MLB's best and deepest bullpens (3.37 bullpen ERA led all AL teams this regular season. I favor Morton over Tanaka but 'LOVE' the Rays bullpen over the Yankees.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout (Part 2) is on the TB Rays at 8:10 ET.

Game 1 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Rays was expected to be a pitchers duel between Cole and Snell. That wasn't the case. Cole was solid but hardly spectacular (6 IP/ 3 ERs / 8 Ks) and Snell had a less-than-impressive outing ( 5 IP / six hits, including 3 HRs / 4 ERs). It was 4-3 Yanks into the 9th when New York broke the game open on the strength of Stanton's grand slam. The Yanks would score FIVE runs in the top of the 9th for a 9-3 win and a 1-0 series lead. The Bronx Bombers became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. New York's goal in Game 2, after recording 31 runs and a major league-record 11 HRs in their first three postseason contests, is to push the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays to the brink of elimination on Tuesday in Game 2 of the best-of-five ALDS.

The starting pitching matchup is New York's 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), going up against Tampa Bay's 27-year-old Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Garcia's made just SIX starts in 2020 and earned his first career win Sep 9 at Toronto, 7-2 (7 IP / 2 ERs). That win was VERY noteworthy, as it snapped New York's five-game losing streak and a stretch in which the Yankees had lost 15 of 20, falling to the edge of the expanded playoff field. The Yankees made the postseason with room to spare but in Garcia's final three starts of 2020, he pitched 16.2 innings, allowing 21 hits and 13 ERs for a 7.02 ERA.

Tampa Bay will counter with 6-foot-8 right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. 

Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two EERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two, as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. He then made up for his poor 2019 playoff starts, by pitching six innings and allowing just two ERs if an 8-2 Tampa Bay win that closed out the Blue Jays 2-0 in the wild card round. He'll take the mound tonight with the Rays having won his last NINE starts. 10 straight makes for a nice round number and that's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 4:37 ET.

The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs.

The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years.

The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but fell in Game 1 of this ALDS Monday night, 10-5. The teams combined for six home HRs (three each) but the Astros out-hit the A's 16-8, overcoming a 5-3 deficit to score the game's final SEVEN runs from the 6th-inning on. It's a matchup of left-handed starters in Game 2, Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) for Houston and Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA) for Oakland. Valdez made 11 appearances in 2020, including 10 starts (team was 6-4). However, he gets the nod in this one because he pitched five scoreless innings in relief of Zack Greinke for the victory in Game 1 vs the Twins, keeping the bullpen fresh for the rest of the series. Valdez became the first reliever with five shutout innings in a playoff game since Madison Bumgarner did so for the Giants in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.

Manaea did not pitch in Oakland's 2-1 series win over the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card round and will take the mound for the first time since his last regular season start, which was back on Sep 23. Ironically, that Sep 23rd start came right here at Dodgers Stadium, when he beat LA 6-4, allowing three ERs in six innings. Manaea won 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, Manaea has gone 4-1 over his last seven starts (team is 6-1), posting a 2.77 ERA. He's Oakland's best starter but for some reason, has yet to be used this postseason. The A's are basically in a "must-win" situation and it's my belief (bet) that they have the "right man for the job!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYY Yankees at 8:07 ET.

I don't want to compare the Yankees/Rays rivalry with the Red Sox/Yankees but the disdain the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees share for each other is hardly a secret. Tampa Bay claimed its third-ever division title by winning EIGHT of 10 meetings, outscoring them 47-34. Tensions boiled over in the ninth inning of New York's 5-3 win back on Sep 1 at Yankee Stadium, when closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 mph fastball up and in at infielder Michael Brosseau's head, nearly prompting a benches-clearing incident. Now, after some hostile moments in the regular season, the stakes are significantly higher in this five-game ALDS being played in San Diego.

Petco Park has been known as a pitchers' park and it seems only fitting that the team's two aces will square off. Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA). You may have heard that Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. The Yanks won his first five starts of 2020, lost his next four and then won his last three. Cole would go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one of his final three regular season starts. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio. He then was DOMINANT in New York's 12-3 rout of Cleveland (and likely Cy Young winner Shane Bieber). while Bieber got "Bronx-bombered"  (allowed 7 ERs over 4.2 innings) and Cole allowed two runs in seven innings with 13 Ks against not a single walk!

Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record  last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-2 (3.24 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .228 BAA) in 11 starts, with the Rays going 7-4 in those starts.

Cole was not very good vs the Rays in three tries in 2020, taking a no-decision in an 8-4 Yankee win and then losing the next two, He's 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in nine career starts vs the Rays (teams are 5-4). Snell has n]made two starts vs the Yankees in 2020, pitching just three innings in a 1-0 Tampa Bay win and then five innings while allowing three ERs in a 6-3 victory. However, he's just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts vs New York (team is 9-9).

Cole was DOMINATE in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and then was terrific in his showdown with Bieber. As for Snell, he pitched 5.2 scoreless Indians in Game 1 vs Toronto (9-2 KW ratio) but that was just his fourth postseason appearance (2nd start). He owns a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP but he's pitched just 11 postseason innings. The 'Big Dog' here is Cole and he's my play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET.

The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs.

The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years.

The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but it should be noted that they had the advantage of getting eight of the 10 games at home because of a joint walk-out on a scheduled game at Houston on Aug. 28 and a coronavirus-caused postponement two days later. Zack Greinke was considered to be the logical choice for Houston in Game 1 but instead it will be Lance McCullers Jr (5-3, 3.93 ERA). The A's will counter with Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA).

McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 3202 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. Yes, this is a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome.

Now look at Bassitt. He made 11 starts in 2020 (record above), with the A's going an impressive 8-3 in those contests. Most notably, he came up HUGE in Game 2 of the wild card series with the A's facing elimination. He gave the A's seven strong innings (7 IP / 1 ER) of a must-have 5-3 victory. That shouldn't have come as a surprise, as in four September starts he was 3-0 (team was 4-0) with a 0.34 ERA and a 25-5 KW ratio. A's grab the Game 1 win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the StL Cardinals at 7:08 ET.

San Diego's powerful offense finally burst to life in the 6th-inning of Game 2, after slumbering through a 7-4 loss in Game 1 and a listless first five innings last night. The Cards led 6-2 heading into the bottom of the sixth but the Padres hit five HRs while plating NINE runs from the 6th to the 8th inning. The Padres are the first team in postseason history with five HRs from the sixth inning onward in a game and Thursday's victory marked the team's 23rd comeback win of 2020. The teams now come back and play a "winner-take-all" Game 3 on Friday night.

The Cardinals had to play 53 games in 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, just to reach the playoffs. Both staffs figure to be strapped after the clubs combined to use 17 pitchers last night but the Cards will be able to send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who last pitched on Sep 25th. He's well-rested and gives the Cards a HUGE edge, San Diego's Game 1 and 2 starters (Chris Paddack and Zach Davies) lasted only a combined 4.1 innings, forcing the Padres to use eight relievers on Wednesday and seven more on Tuesday, for a total of 13.2 innings. SIX San Diego relievers have worked in both games.

Flaherty is NOT the same pitcher as he was in 2019 when he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. He went 11-8 in 33 starts last year with a 2.75 ERA, a league-leading 0.97 WHIP and a .192 BAA. He's 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine starts in 2020, posting a 1.22 WHIP and a .221 BAA. The Padres are calling this a "bullpen game" but as noted above, the bullpen just may be 'gassed!' The latest word is that Adrian Morejohn will "open" for San Diego and he's made 14 career appearances (six starts), posting a 6.26 ERA, 1.54v WHIP and .307 BAA. However, who knows who SD will start (doesn't matter).

Flaherty is 1-0 in three career starts against the Padres with a 1.10 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a .200 BAA. Last night's victory was the Padres' first postseason win at Petco Park, which opened in 2004. The first four losses were to St Louis, which eliminated the Padres in the division series in 2005 and 2006 (the last time the Padres made the postseason), as well as in 1996 when the Padres played at Jack Murphy Stadium.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET.

The A's bounced back from a 4-1 Game 1 loss to take Game 2 by the score of 5-3. That sent the series to a deciding Game 3 on Thursday but which pitchers the White Sox and A's would send to the mound for that deciding game was unknown until about 12 noon ET. The White Sox have chosen 25-year-old rookie Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.97 ERA), who made seven starts in the regular season. The A's have chosen Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.58 ERA). With that pitching matchup set, I've released a Late-Breaker on Oakland.

The A's have gone 6-1 in Dunning's seven starts but in his most recent two, he's allowed eight ERs on nine hits over seven innings. He's never faced the A's and this marks his first postseason start. The A's considered lefty Sean Manaea but chose NOT to tempt fate, as the White Sox ran their record to 15-0 when facing lefty starters this season when they beat Oakland starter Jesus Luzardo in the series opener. Instead, it will be Fiers. Here's the rub with him. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts!

Oakland avoids Chicago's perfect record against lefties this year by choosing Fiers, plus how can one argue with the team's W/L record when he's started at home? One last thing, The White Sox have won just 21 of 47 games started by opposing right-handers this year.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:08 ET.

The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. The Cincinnati Reds came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go 31-29 and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). In stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season.

Game 1 was Wednesday and featured a terrific pitching matchup of Trevor Bauer vs Max Fried. The result? Wednesday's starters combined to throw 14.2 scoreless innings and strike out 17 batters in a game eventually won 1-0 by Atlanta in 13 innings. NO postseason game had ever gone so deep into extra innings before the first run was scored and the teams combined for a playoff-record 37 strikeouts. "Winning that first game in a short series is huge," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "It certainly adds to the stress (if you don't)." The Braves have lost 10 consecutive postseason series openers, including a wild-card game, since a victory in 2001, which was also the last year they won a playoff series.

Taking the mound and hoping to continue Atlanta's pitching momentum will be Ian Anderson (3-2, 1.95 ERA), the Braves' first-round draft choice in 2016 He'll be opposed by Cincinnati's Luis Castillo (4-6, 3.21 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6). Castillo got things straightened out in September and was a key figure in Cincinnati's surge, He went 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in his first four September starts, before losing 7-3 on Sep 26 at Minnesota (4 IP / 4 ERs)

Anderson made six starts since being promoted in midseason. He began his career by beating the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. In his final regular-season outing on Sep 24 against the Miami Marlins, Anderson pitched 5.2 innings and allowed three runs, all unearned. The Braves were 3-33 in his six starts but he also owns a 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA to go along with his sub-2.00 ERA. The question has to be, is he ready for primetime? Castillo's big moment this season came when he threw a two-hit complete game against the Cardinals, jump-starting a streak of 12 wins in 16 games that pushed the Reds into the playoffs. This will be his FIRST postseason start but he's got 90 career starts on his resume, to Anderson's SIX.

I won with Atlanta in Game 1 but let's be honest. The Braves were VERY lucky. The Red out-hit the Braves 11-6, left 13 men on base by going 1 of 12 with RISP. Cincinnati loaded the bases in the 11th inning against reliever Darren O'Day but Tyler Matzek struck out Mike Moustakas to end the inning. They had runners on the corners with no outs in the 12th before Matzek struck out the next three batters. They had the bases loaded with one out in the 13th and again failed to push home a run. Are you kidding me?

This series is headed to a deciding Game 3 on Friday, when the Braves will again face the 'demons' of their playoff series since 2001. However, that's Thursday's 'story.' Today at "high noon," the Reds win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET.

MLB's 60-game schedule was limited to regional play, so SEVEN of the eight wild card series featured teams that haven't met since 2019! The exception is the series between AL East rivals Toronto and Tampa Bay. Of the four AL games played on Tuesday, the top-seed Rays were the only higher seed to win (three of four road teams won). Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, shortstop Willy Adames made splashy defensive plays and Manuel Margot delivering a two-run HR, the AL East champions opened the playoffs Tuesday with a 3-1 victory over the eight-seeded Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays are in a win or go home scenario on Tuesday, as Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA) will take the mound against Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but the Rays would go 9-3 in his 12 starts, justifying his FA signing. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). His ERA (4.08 to 1.78), his WHIP (1.13 to 0.89) and his BAA (.200 to .186) are all higher this season but the Rays have gone 9-2 in his 11 starts, including having won EIGHT in a row entering this contest.

So why take Ryu? Ryu has pitched n]better on the road all season, with a 2.20 ERA and .195 BAA, compared to a 3.15 ERA and .269 BAA. He's also made eight postseason appearances while with the Dodgers, while Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros in 2019, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow didn't face the Blue Jays this season but he's 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against them (team is 2-4). This series is headed to a deciding Game 3.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:08 ET.

The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. However, the Braves have dropped NINE straight postseason series since beating Houston during the 2001 NLDS, not including an additional one-game 2012 NL wild-card loss against St Louis.

As for the Reds, they came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. 

Checking in on the two teams we find that the Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). First baseman Freddie Freeman is an MVP candidate after batting .341 with 13 HRs and 53 RBI, while Marcell Ozuna wasn't far behind in batting .338 plus led the NL in HRs (18) and RBI (56). in Stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season. The Reds were seventh with 90 HRs, with Eugenio Suarez hitting 15 (led Cincy with 38 RBI) and Nick Castellanos hitting 14 home runs. However, over Cincy's last 27 games, he homered ONLY four times while batting .170.

Pitching has carried the Reds this season and the Reds send their ace Trevor Bauer to the mound, although Atlanta counters with its ace, Max Fried. Bauer posted an NL-best 1.73 ERA along with a 0.79 WHIP (100-17 KW) and .159 BAA. However, he is just 5-4 in his 11 starts, while the Reds were just 6-5. As for Fried, he delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA. The Braves went 10-1 in his starts.

I noted Atlanta's playoff woes at the top and the Braves CAN'T expect to win this series if they DON'T win Game 1. Fried sustained an ankle injury early in his most recent start on Sep 23 but he's "good to go" for Wednesday. More good news for Atlanta comes with the news that leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.(14 HRs in 46 games) is expected to be ready for Game 1 despite a wrist issue. It seems like many (most) think Bauer will win the NL';s Cy Young award but I'd vote Fried and will add that over the last two seasons, the Braves are 32-9 (-plus 18.1 units) in his regular season starts. Make that 33-9 after today's contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 3:00 ET.

MLB's pandemic-shortened regular season was limited to regional play and as the postseason begins, SEVEN of the eight wild-card series involve teams that haven't played any meaningful games against each other since last year (the lone exception being Tampa Bay taking Toronto in an all-AL East matchup). The Oakland A's will host the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this best-of-three series and the two teams are not only meeting for the first time this season but also for the first time EVER in postseason play. 

The White Sox were coming off a 72-89 season in 2019 but at 35-25, earned the first AL wild-card spot (No. 7 seed). Chicago tied Cleveland for second in the AL Central (both teams finished just ONE game back of the first-place Twins) but the Indians won the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-2 head-to-head record. Chicago's playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2008. The A's enter the 2020 season off back-to-back wild card appearances in 2018 and 2019, jumping out to a 12-4 start and NEVER looking back in the AL West. Oakland finished 36-24 (AL's No. 2 seed) while cruising to its first AL West title since 2013, SEVEN games ahead of the second-place Astros. 

Game 1's starting pitchers are Chicago's Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Giolito struggled in his rookie season (2018) with a 10-13 record (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). However, he went 14-9 in 2019, lowering his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs (3.41) and his WHIP to 1.06. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing seven ERs in a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he pitched well enough over his next nine starts (2.54 ERA) to have the White Sox go 7-2. Giolito went winless in his last three starts (Chicago was 1-2) due mostly to getting just seven runs of offensive support, allowing eight ERs in 17.2 innings (4.08 ERA). He's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the A's.

Luzardo made just six relief appearances in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP but he pitched a total of just 12 innings. He made 12 appearances in 2020 (nine starts), with the A's going 6-3 in those starts (his ERA was 3.83). Looking a little closer we find that Luzardo has pitched well at home this season, going 3-1 in six starts (team was 5-1) with a 2.40 ERA and a .215 BAA. He shut out three of his six home opponents, the Rangers (8/4), D'backs (8/19) and Giants (9/19), over 17.1 innings. Luzardo pitched three innings of one-hit, shutout relief in last year's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild-card game in his only previous postseason experience.

As noted, the A's played in the postseason in each of the last two seasons, while the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were 32-16 and had the best record in the AL on Sep 15 but 'limp in' having lost NINE of their last 12. The A's were a combined 102-60 (.630) at home in 2018 and 2019 but improved their home winning percentage in 2020's shortened season, going 22-10 (.688). There is little margin for error in these best-of-three series and I want the home dog in this Game 1.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 2:00 ET.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The Twins repeated as NL Central champs in 2020's 60-game schedule, going 36-24 (one game ahead of the White Sox and Indians). Minnesota is the AL's No. 3 seed and gets to play this best-of-three series at home against the AL's No. 6 seed. It's hard to believe but that No. 6 seed is the 29-31 Houston Astros, one of TWO teams in MLB 2020 to make the expanded playoff-field with a losing record (Milwaukee Brewers are the other). With allude respect to Milwaukee, the Brewers didn't enter the current season coming off THREE straight division titles (AL West), while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. The Astros made the World Series in both 2017 (won) and 2019 (lost).

Game 1 of the series will feature Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) going up against Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). Greinke won the AL's Cy Young award back in 2009 with KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA) and from 2011-19 he was one of MLB's top starters. However, he's NOT had a good season in 2020 and is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 24 career appearances (20 starts / teams are just 5-15!) against the Twins, including 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts at Target Field. He also has NEVER had much success in the postseason. He's made 16 postseason starts, going 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, which is 0.84 higher than his career ERA of 3.37 in the regular season. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good, as the Twins are 8-3 in his starts and he owns a 0.75 WHIP (MLB-best!) and .168 BAA to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA.

Yes, the Twins have lost 16 straight postseasons and you may have heard that Houston manager Dusty Baker has become the first manager in baseball history to lead FIVE different teams to the postseason. Baker had previously taken the Giants (1997, 2000, 2002), Cubs (2003), Reds (2010, 2012, 2013), and Nationals (2016, 2017) the playoffs. Here' what has been left out regarding Baker's postseason record. His 2002 Giants led the Angels 3-2 in the World Series and were up 5-0 in Game 6 entering the bottom of the 7th. However, the Angels would rally for a 6-5 win and capture the World Series in Game 7. Baker moved to the Cubs in 2003 and in the NLCS vs Miami, led 3-1 before losing THREE in row. Game 6 was the infamous "Steve Bartman game," when the Marlins scored EIGHT runs in the top of the 8th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit. One cue, Baker's Cubs lost Game 7. Since that debacle, Baker's teams have lost all FOUR postseason series he's managed in, plus lost one "winner-take-all" wild card game. You really want to back a Baker-coached team? 

Getting down to brass tacks, after being MLB's best road team the previous three seasons from 2017-19 (157-86, .646), the Astros went a deplorable 9-23 (.281) on the road in 2020. They compiled a 5.66 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins were a MLB-best 24-7 (.774) at home, producing a 2.89 team ERA. Here's the clincher. Greinke's made five road starts in 2020 and the Astros have lost ALL five, while Maeda has made five home starts, with the Twins winning ALL five (1.91 ERA / .109 BAA). That's 100% against and for!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Twins at 3:10 ET

The Twins won the AL Central title last season with a 101-61 record (franchise's first 100-win season since 1965) and can secure their second consecutive divisional title with a home win on Sunday over the Reds. 36-23 Minnesota can also claim the NL Central's top spot with a loss by the Chicago White Sox (35-24) to the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati, clinched its first postseason berth since 2013 with a 7-2 victory in Friday's series opener and are likely headed to Atlanta to play the Braves in the wild-card series starting Wednesday.

Reds manager David Bell debated whether to bring Cy Young candidate Trevor Bauer (NL-best 1.73 ERA) back on three day's rest but instead will start Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.73 ERA). In the end, he felt it was more important to line up his postseason pitching rotation rather than to potentially move up in the National League seeding. The Twins will counter with veteran Rich Hill (2-2, 3.27 ERA).

Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his Sep 10 start, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. He returned to the mound Tuesday and looked just fine. He pitched five innings and allowed just one run but the Reds wasted his solid effort, never scoring again after taking a 2-0 first-inning lead in a 3-2 loss.

Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 67-44 career record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). However, his two most recent starts have seen him post a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings with 12 Ks.

Gray owns a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs the Twins (teams are 2-5), while Hill owns a 5-3 record and 3.34 ERA in 12 career appearances and 10 starts (teams are 6-40 vs the Reds. This game has a postseason atmosphere and Gray's ONLY postseason appearance was back in a 2017 wild card start for Colorado vs Arizona, when he was able to record just FOUR outs while allowing four runs on seven hits. In comparison, Hill has made 12 appearances (11 starts) for the Dodgers in the postseason the last four years, posting a 2.70 ERA over 50 innings with 62 KS. Oh yeah, Minnesota is a major league-best 24-6 at home this season and a Sunday win would give Minnesota the highest single-season home winning percentage (.806) in MLB history. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET.

The 30-28 Cincinnati Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 with Friday night's 7-2 win at Target Field over the Twins. The team stuck around after the final out on the field to celebrate and with good reason. After all, when St Louis beat the Reds 16-2 back on Sep 1, Cincinnati was a mediocre 15-21. However, the Reds have rebounded to go 15-7 since then, including 10-2 in their last 12 games. The  series continues tonight at Target Field but it's the Twins, not the Reds, who have MUCH more to play for over the weekend. The 35-23 Twins own a one-game lead over both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians (both are 34-24) heading into the final two games of the regular-season. Minnesota can clinch home field advantage for the wild-card round by winning one game or Cleveland losing one game but can also claim the AL Central title by finishing with two victories. The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Twins but Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland or if there should be a three-way tie for first.

Tonight's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6).

However, Castillo has been a key figure in Cincinnati's September surge, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in four starts. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide.

He returned to the mound on Sep 1, 2020, making his first start since Sep 6 of last season. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts this season and comes in off an 8-1 victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field last Saturday when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21-4 KW ratio in his four September starts (Twins are 4-0!). Castillo is red-hot but the Reds could be a little drained off last night's playoff-clinching win, while the Twins have the AL's No. 3 seed clearly in their sights!  Minnesota suffered just its SIXTH loss in 29 games at Target Field in 2020 (Twins are a MLB-best 23-6 at home) and I'm betting this is the perfect situation for them to grab a VERY important win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:07 ET.

The Phillies lost 6-4 Friday night 6-4 at Tropicana Field to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have already clinched the AL East but can clinch the AL's overall No. 1 seed with a win here. Philadelphia can still make the playoffs but the Phillies need help. Here's what Philly knows for sure. Friday's loss combined with Miami's 4-3 win over the Yankees in New York in 10 innings meant the 28-30 Phillies can only finish tied with the 30-28 Marlins, who hold the tiebreaker edge and are guaranteed second place and a playoff spot for the first time since 2003. The Phillies can't finish any better than third in the NL East this season and there is just ONE wild card spot left in the NL. Either the 29-27 Cards or 28-30 Brewers will nail down the No. 2 spot in the NL Central, so the Phillies are 'fighting' the loser of that race plus the 29-29 Giants for that final wild card spot.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Philly's Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA) and Tampa Bay's John Curtiss (3-0, 1.85 ERA).Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and was acquired by Philadelphia to pitch in big games like this. Wheeler was 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA through his first eight starts (Phils were 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of those eight starts. However, he's 0-1 over his last two starts (team is 0-2) with a 3.46 ERA. He has never faced the Rays The Rays send Curtiss to mound to be used as an "Opener." this is his 17th appearance of 2020 but just his third 'start.' He was used for just 1.1 innings in each of his first two. His ERA (1.85), WHIP (0.86), KW ratio (25-3) and BAA (.202) are ALL impressive numbers but note that he's pitched a total of just 24.1 innings.

The Phillies are hardly a favorite to grab that final NL wild card spot but "hope springs eternal" heading into this contest. Is Wheeler really the "big time" starter the Phillies think he is? I'm NOT sure about that but I do expect him to pitch VERY well here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Playoff Hopefuls Showdown in on the StL Cardinals at 7:07 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers and the St Louis Cardinals split a Friday doubleheader, with the Brewers winning the first game 3-0 and the Cardinals winning the nightcap 9-1. The 28-30 Brewers are on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race and have quite frankly been playing catch up all season, since they have never reached the high side of .500. They must now win their last two games to have any chance of participating in postseason baseball. Meanwhile, the 29-27 Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NL Central's second-place playoff slot.

Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (2-5, 3.43 ERA) and St Louis' Adam Wainwright (5-2, 3.05 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-7 in Woodruff's 12 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of those 12 starts.

St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). 

Wainwright is 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA in 43 career appearances against the Brewers, including 36 starts (Cards are 24-12). These two squared off in the first half of a doubleheader back on Sep 16, a game the Cards won 4-2, as Wainwright pitched ALL seven innings, allowing two runs with a KW ratio of 9-1. Wainwright's had a very good career and here at 39-years-old, he's posted the lowest BBA of his career (2.12), 40 points lower than his career average of .252! Wainwright wants another postseason run and increases the Cards' chances by winning here. Bye-Bye Brewers!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds were just in 2019 but 75-87 (16 games out of first in the NL Central) but they enter Friday having won NINE of 11. At 28-28, Cincy is in a dogfight for both second place in the National League Central and/or a wild-card berth. Had the season ended after their 6-1 victory over visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday night, the Reds would have been the No. 8 seed heading to Los Angeles to open their best-of-three wild-card series with the Dodgers on Wednesday.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins have been a little streaky in 2020 but clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years with an 8-1 Saturday win at the Cubs. 35-22 Minnesota moved a half-game ahead of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the AL Central with its fourth straight win, 7-6, over visiting Detroit on Wednesday night. While the Twins had an off day yesterday, their advantage stretched to a full game after Chicago lost at Cleveland on Thursday.

Taking the mound tonight will be Cincy's Tyler Mahle (2-2, 3.57 ERA), while Minnesota counters with Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.72 ERA). Mahle was AWFUL in 2019, going 2-10 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .266 BAA. He's been MUCH better in 2020's nine appearances (eight starts). His ERA is down to 3.57, his WHIP to 1.10 and his BAA is down 75 points to .191. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last five starts (Reds are 4-1).

Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been up-and-down. However, he is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four September starts (team is 3-1) with 22 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings.

The "clincher" is the fact that Minnesota owns a major league best 23-5 home record and Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BAA. What's more, the Twins are looking to secure a top-four seed so they can open their AL wild-card series Tuesday at Target Field. Twins win! Twins win!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the TB Rays at 6:40 ET.

The Rays clinched their third division title in franchise history with Wednesday's 8-5 win over the Mets at Citi Field. The AL East crown was the first for Tampa Bay since its 96-win 2010 campaign. The team also won it in 2008, a season in which the Rays advanced to the World Series against the Phillies But lost in five games. Those Philadelphia Phillies come to Tropicana Field for a three-game weekend series. The Phillies were 27-25 after taking the first three of a four-game home series against the Blue Jays but a 6-3 Sunday loss stretched into a four-game slide when the Phils lost the first three of a four-game series at last-place Washington. Philly did salvage the final game of that series but the team is 28-29 and may have to win all three games here vs the Rays, a team looking to lock down the AL's best record.

The Phillies send Vince Velasquez (1-1, 5.46 ERA) to the mound to face the Rays' (2-2, 4.64 ERA). The Phillies are hoping to see a repeat performance from Velasquez, who allowed just one run over six innings in Saturday's 3-1 win over Toronto. However, I think I'll file that one under "wishful thinking!" Entering that contest, Velasquez was still searching for his first win of 2020, in his EIGHTH start of the season. He owned a 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .292 BAA over his first seven starts of 2020. Fact was, the Phillies had gone 0-7 in his 2020 starts. Where Saturday's effort came from, I don't know!

Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. He has NOT pitched well in eight starts here in 2020 (1.36 WHIP and BAA to go along with his 4.64 ERA) but he seems to be getting back in form, as this his fifth start since returning from the injured list (3.86 ERA and 17-5 KW ratio in four starts). The Phillies 'shot themselves in the foot' in Washington and the Rays are zeroed in on claiming the AL's No. 1 seed. Velasquez will NOT get in their way.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET.

The Dodgers have won the NL West for the EIGHTH consecutive season and also have clinched the NL's No. 1 seed. LA hosts the Oakland A's Thursday night in the "rubber" game of this series, before welcoming the Angels to Dodger Stadium over the weekend for a three-game, season-ending series. The 34-21 A's have clinched the AL West title (first time since 2013) but still have an outside shot at catching the TB Rays for the AL's top record (sit two games back with four left / Rays have just 3 remaining games). Clinching the AL's second-best record.

Thursday's pitching matchup will feature Oakland's Mike Fiers (6-2, 4.67) and LA's Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.86 ERA). I've regularly played on Fiers this season and why not? It's true that his overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.39 WHIP and .278 BAA to go along with his 4.67 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 8-2 in his 10 starts in 2020.Surprised? You shouldn't be if you've been paying attention. Since Fiers joined Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 53 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-14 (.736) in those contests! 

Here's the rub with Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. However, he's had a difficult 2020, making only SEVEN starts in which he's been able to earn just ONE win. That said, he has yet to lose and the Dodgers are 6-1 in his starts, as he's posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and outstanding BAA of .187. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says he intends to use Clayton Kershaw and Buehler as his starters in next week's opening round of the playoffs but has not named a third starter. The key being, can Buehler prove he is up for the task? Otherwise, the Dodgers will have two playoff rotation vacancies. Buehler last pitched Sep 8 at Arizona, lasting just 2.2 innings and leaving with continued finger issues. 

Buehler comes off the injured list to make this start, testing the blister on his right index finger that has placed him on the disabled list twice in the last 4 1.2 weeks. It will be his first career outing against Oakland. Meanwhile, getting back to Fiers, he's made six appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA. What a great price on Fiers. Take it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The Houston Astros' sign-stealing allegations were expected to be front and center in MLB 2020 but COVID-19, forcing an abbreviated 60-game schedule, pushed that narrative to the 'back-burner.' Houston came into the current season off THREE straight 100-win years from 2017-2019 in which it appeared in two World Series (won in 2017 and lost in seven games in 2019), Houston stumbled at the start of 2020 by beginning 7-10 but an eight-game winning streak got them to 15-10. However, the team has gone 13-18 since it was 15-10 and enters Thursday 28-28. The good news for Houston is that the second-place finisher in each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. Houston' currently owns a 2 1/2-game lead over the Angels for second in the AL West with just FOUR games The Astros squandered an opportunity to clinch a postseason berth on Wednesday and put themselves in a position to face a stressful four-game weekend series in Arlington. That said, the Texas Rangers are just 19-37 on the season and if the Astros can't seal down a playoff spot against them, Houston doesn't deserve a playoff appearance. Remember, the Astros can also clinch a spot with some 'help' (losses) by the Angels. The Angels don't play tonight but then cap their season with three games at Dodger Stadium (Dodgers own MLB's best record but have also clinched the NL's No 1 seed, so have little motivation).

The Rangers have a brand-new beautiful stadium in Globe Life Field but have gone just 13-13 at home this season (no fans surely didn't help). However, Texas does own a MAJOR pitching advantage in this first game of the series, as Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53 ERA) takes the mound against Houston rookie Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.33 ERA).Javier has made 11 appearances in 2020, including nine starts. His ERA is 3.55 and his WHIP is 1.01 in those nine starts (team is 6-3) with 42 Ks over 45.2 innings. Javier has shown promise but I don't believe he's up to the task of besting Lance Lynn, especially considering that Houston has scored more than three runs just FOUR times over its last 16 games (over five series)!

Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400-plus innings over 258 appearances (234 starts) with a 104-70 record (3.53 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lynn has logged seven innings in each of his previous three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 21 strikeouts while limiting opposing batters to a .189 average during that stretch.

Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.53 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.53), his WHIP is 0.96 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .184, 59 points better than his LT mark (.243). Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 5-1 (1.88 ERA) at home here in 2020, holding opponents to .161 BAA. This small home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Interleague Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET.

The NY Yankees were the preseason favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, as well as a strong favorite to win the AL East. However, as the Yankees dealt with significant injuries all season, the 'steady as she goes' Tampa Bay Rays enter tonight's game at Citi Field with the Mets needing just ONE more win to celebrate a division title 10 years in the making. The Rays inched close to the AL East title and delivered another damaging blow to the Mets' postseason hopes Monday night as six Tampa Bay pitchers combined on a four-hitter in a 2-1 victory. That win, coupled with the Yankees' 11-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, have the Rays on the verge of winning their third division title in franchise history (have previously won the AL East in 2008 and 2010). Meanwhile, the Mets could win their final SIX and still not make the postseason field.

Taking the mound for tonight's contest will be Tampa Bay's Blake Snell (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and New York's Seth Lugo (2-3, 4.34 ERA). Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record  last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-1 (3.05 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / .220 BAA) in 10 starts, with the Rays going 7-3 in those starts.

Squaring off against Snell will be Seth Lugo, who made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 165 career appearances but just 36 starts and this marks his sixth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in his first four starts and while his ERA was 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3. The Mets won his most recent start (9/17 at Philly) 10-6 but they didn't win because of Lugo. In fact, he allowed eight hits and SIX runs while getting just FIVE outs, before the Mets came back for the win.

The 24-30 Mets are losing at the worst possible time. They enter Tuesday leading the majors in batting average (.273) and on-base percentage (.351) but they've scored THREE runs or fewer in six of their last nine games, losing all SIX of those games. Monday loss not only ensured the Mets of their third non-winning season in the last four years but it also dropped them three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the National League's final wild-card spot and with three other teams, the Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, to hurdle in between. As noted above, the Mets' playoff hopes are on 'life-support! Meanwhile, expect the Rays to 'party like it's 2010 after this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The Cincinnati Reds beat the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 last night, moving closer toward a postseason berth. It marked Cincy's EIGHTH win in nine games. Both teams are in the mix for a playoff spot, either as a wild card or by finishing second in the NL Central. Right now, 28-27 (.509) Cincinnati is one game ahead of Milwaukee for third place in the division and is also in a near-dead heat with St Louis (26-25, .510) for second-place in the division, which comes with a playoff guarantee

Tonight's pitching matchup features Brett Anderson (3-3, 4.38 ERA) and Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.94 ERA). Anderson had an 'easy go of it' in his most recent start, as the Brewers routed the Cardinals 18-3 last Tuesday. He pitched six solid innings, allowing two ERs on five hits. The Brewers lost his first three stars this season but have gone 4-1 in his last five. That said, he's no more than a journeyman. He's made 196 career appearances (184 starts) with just THREE winning seasons (7-6 in 2010, 10-9 in 2015 and 13-9 in 2019), posting a 62-64 record (4.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP).

Cincy's Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his most recent start on Sep 10, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. However, he returns to the mound tonight and his back is apparently healthy enough.

Gray has made eight career starts against the Brewers, posting a 2.56 ERA, as his teams have gone 6-2. Let me also point out Milwaukee's recent roads (as I did last night in winning 6-3 with the Reds), as Milwaukee enters this contest having won just TWICE in its last 10 road games. No reason to think the Brewers will win here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. 

The Seattle Mariners, who have been displaced the last five games because of poor air quality due to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, will return to Seattle to play host to the Houston Astros on Monday night. The 23-30 Mariners went 1-4 as the "home" team in San Francisco and San Diego but now get a chance to finish their eight-game homestand at home. Seattle' season will be over at the end of the week but the Mariners have a chance to make the Astros 'sweat a little,' as Houston looks to close in a playoff spot by finishing in second-place in the AL West. Houston owns a FOUR-game lead over Seattle for second place and as each team has just seven games remaining, Houston's 'magic number' is two.

Houston's lead over Seattle is actually FIVE games, as the Astros owns the tiebreaker (no time for one-game tiebreakers this season). The starting pitchers are Lance McCullers (3-2, 4.87 ERA) for Houston and Marco Gonzales (6-2, 3.49 ERA). Let me get these three stats out of the way first, before making a case for Gonzales and Seattle. No. 1 is, the Astros are 24-2 against the M's over the past two seasons. No. 2 is that McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle (Astros are 10-3) and No. 3 is that Gonzales is going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA in seven career starts vs Houston (team is 0-7). In fact, Gonzales took the loss on Opening Day in Houston, as he allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings of an 8-2 Seattle loss.

Right now you may be asking, "What the hell are we doing playing Seattle, Larry?" Fair enough but here's why. Since that July 24 start, Gonzales has gone 6-1 (3.26 ERA) over 52.1 innings with a KW ratio of 59-4! As for McMullers, he's pitched well at home in five starts (3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and .159 BAA) but look what's happened in his four road starts. He's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 19 ERs for a 13.50 ERA, while opponents have batted .393 against him (those are NOT typos!). Houston will clinch it's playoff berth this week but NOT tonight! Take the 'juicy' price on the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET.

The 27-27 Cincinnati Reds and 26-26 Milwaukee Brewers remain in contention for a postseason spot entering the final week of this uniquely condensed 2020 regular season. The Reds have won SEVEN of eight as they welcome Milwaukee to Cincinnati for this 3-games series with the Brewers having won a season-high four straight to reach .500 for the first time since Aug 19. Cincinnati is 4-3 against the Brewers, with all of those games coming at Milwaukee. 

The Brewers will go with Brandon Woodruff (2-4, 3.45 ERA),Monday's game, while the Reds counter with Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note was that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. However, the Brewers are just 5-6 in Woodruff's 11 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of those 11 starts.

Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA in those games (Reds were 1-6).

As Castillo takes the mound tonight, he's turned his season around this month. He's won all three of his September starts, allowing just three ERs in 22 innings (1.23 ERA) with 24 Ks. The Reds currently own the No. 8 playoff spot in the NL but also have the Cards well within the sights for second in the NL Central (one game back), a finish that would guarantee them a playoff berth. The Reds finish the season with three games in Minnesota. meaning this three-game set will be the team's final three home games of the season (playoffs or not). The good news tonight is that Castillo's in excellent current form (see) and that Milwaukee's recent four-game winning streak came at home, while the Brewers have won just TWICE in their last nine road games.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 7:08 ET.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but a 10-14 stretch left them a modest 20-16 at the end of August. Minnesota opened September 10-2 but lost THREE of four to open the week in Chicago against the White Sox but after losing 1-09 in Wrigley on Friday, the Twins rebounded with an 8-1 victory last night, clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). Chicago hardly looks like a team ready to 'IMPLODE' down the stretch in 2020. The Cubs hired David Ross on October 24, 2019,as their manager to replace Joe Maddon, signing him to a three-year contract. It's his first major league managing gig and Ross has done an excellent job. The Cubs get set for the "rubber match" of this three-game series (tonight on ESPN) at 31-21, which gives them a 4 1/2-game lead on the second-place Cards and a 5 1/2-game lead over both the Reds and Brewers. The Cubs haven't clinched a playoff just yet but they are about to.

Getting the starts in this series final will be Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.15 ERA) of Minnesota and Yu Darvish (7-2, 1.86 ERA) of Chicago. Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been so-so. The Twins are just 5-5 in his 10 starts. Particularly troubling and relevant to this game is that in Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BBA but a 5.76 ERA and .311 BAA in his five road starts! 

Yu Darvish has been a HUGE bust since Texas traded him during the 2017 season to the Dodgers (ineffective pitching and injuries). However, he's among the front-runners for this year's NL Cy Young award, as the Cubs are 8-2 in his 10 starts and to go along with his sub-2,00 ERA, he owns a 0.84 WHIP 979-12 KW ratio) and a .205 BAA. Is it it worrisome  that he is coming off two winless starts? Not really, as he's posted a respectable 3.46 ERA during that time while allowing five ERs on 11 hits in 13 innings (also 16 Ks). Darvish has only faced the Twins three times in his career but owns a 1.77 ERA, with 25 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. As for Berrios, his lone start vs the Cubs came back in 2018, when he took the loss after giving up six runs on six hits in 4.1 innings (that's a 12.46 ERA!). ONE start means nothing but his outing vs the Cubs did come at Wrigley, which brings back into play his 5.76 ERA and .311 BAA in his five road starts here in 2020. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry 

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 4:05 ET.

The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they come into Sunday (next Sunday, Sep 27 is the end of the regular season) at 25-24, ONE game better than the Reds and Brewers. All three teams are trying to nail down second-[place in the NL Central (guaranteed playoff berth) or get one of the NL's two wild card spots Sunday concludes a five-game series at PNC Park with the Pirates and marks the Cards' 15th game over the last 11 days, a stretch that began back on Sep 10 with a doubleheader with the Tigers. St Louis lost the opening game of this series to Pittsburgh but have won the last three, including a sweep of Friday's doubleheader The Cards HAVE to be more than a little tired but they are fortunate that the Pirates are the opponent, as Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season.

St Louis was no-hit through six innings on Saturday but a five-run seventh was enough for them to escape with a 5-4 win (note: it's sure nice playing the Pirates). Taking the mound this afternoon will be Jack Flaherty (3-2, 5.52 ERA) for the Cards, while the Pirates counter with Joe Musgrove (0-5, 5.74 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and a quick glance at his ERA in 2020's seven starts would give one pause. However, a closer look reveals that entering his last start (last Tuesday at Milwaukee), he owned a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA, So what happened? He just got 'torched' by the Brewers in that one, allowing nine ERs in just three innings (Brewers won 18-3).

However, the fact that Flaherty is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts vs the Pirates (team is 6-2), should provide some confidence in playing on St Louis in this one. What's more, Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove is not only winless in six 2020 starts (team is 1-5 / 5,74 ERA and 1.54 WHIP), he is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career starts against the Cards (an 88% "go-against!"). Cards pick up the "much-needed" win here and then are off to KC for three games (Royals are just 21-31), before playing FIVE games in four days with Milwaukee to wrap up the current season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET.

The Chicago White Sox were just 72-89 last season, finishing 28 1/2 games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central. However, as the saying goes, what a difference a year makes. Chicago did have some high expectations entering 2020's shortened season but opened only 10-11. It was then that the White Sox 'turned on the juice' and as they meet the Reds in the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, have gone 24-7 since Aug 16. The White Sox already know they're headed to the postseason (first time since 2008) but the 26-27 Cincinnati Reds still have work to do and time is running out.  have been in playoff mode just trying to get there themselves. The White Sox ended the Reds' longest winning streak of the season, last night, snapping Cincy's six-game run with a 5-0 shut out. The Reds are 15-10 since Aug 27 and are just ONE game behind the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central (ALL 2nd-place teams get a playoff berth). The Reds are also very much alive for one of the NL's two wild card spots but they have PLENTY of competition.

Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.20 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox in the series finale, while the Reds will give Michael Lorenzen (2-1, 4.56 ERA) his second straight start. Cease has not gone more than 6.1 innings in any of his 10 starts this season (Chicago is 6-4) but look at his improvement across the board from his 14 starts in 2019. He went just 4-7 (team was 6-8 ) with a 5.79 ERA, and 1.55 WHIP. His ERA is down to 3.20 this season (that's a 2 1/2-run improvement!) and his WHIP is down to 1.38.

Cincy's Lorenzen made his first 15 appearances of 2020 out of the bullpen, before making his first start of 2020 (and first start since 2018) this past Tuesday at Pittsburgh. He gave up only a single run on four hits while striking out six without a walk over five innings of a 4-1 victory. First, let me note that over this 15 relief appearances of 2020, he had allowed 12 ERs over just 20.2 innings for a 5.23 ERA. Secondly, should ANYONE be impressed with a win over Pittsburgh?  For the record, Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record  (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season.

The Reds may yet earn a playoff berth but they won't 'get any help' (meaning a win) here. Chicago SS Tim Anderson is staring down a second straight batting title (won last year at .335 and is hitting .366 in 202, two points back of the Yankees' LeMahieu) and 1B Jose Abreu has posted MVP-like numbers (.330, 18 HRs and 52 RBI).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies swept Friday's doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-0 and 8-. It was the team's first doubleheader sweep since Sep 9, 2012 against the Colorado Rockies (That's quite a long stretch). The twin bill win moved the Phillies above .500 at 26-25, leaving them just a half-game back of the Marlins for second [place in the NL East. ALL 2nd-place teams get into the postseason plus two wild card spots are also available. That current race is a mad scramble, with FIVE teams hovering at just above .500 or right at .500.

The doubleheader loss was Toronto's FIFTH consecutive defeat (Blue Jays were swept by the New York Yankees from Tuesday-Thursday). Suddenly, the Blue Jays have seen their record dip to 26-25.Toronto opened the week a season-best SIX games over .500 (26-20) and back on the morning of Sep 8, sat 24-18, three games ahead of the 21-21 Yankees for second-place in the AL East. However, the Yankees beat Toronto 7-3 on Sep 9, the first of NINE straight wins. The Jays are 2-7 during that same span and are now FOUR games back of New York. Toronto has just NINE games left and its wild card hopes are good but the Jays NEED to get back on the winning track.

The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Hyun Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) while the Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez (0-1 with a 6.46 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but since Aug 1, the Jays are 7-1 in his eight starts (Toronto is 8-2 in his 10 starts, overall). He allowed five ERs in a Sep 7 start vs the Yankees but Toronto came back to win that game, 12-5. In his other SEVEN starts since Aug 1, he's allowed only FIVE earned runs in 40 innings for a 1.13 ERA and a 46-8 KW ratio. Yes, his FA signing was a "good one!"

In stark contrast, Velasquez is still searching for his first win of 2020, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Just a thought, he could hardly expect to pick up too many "Ws" when he owns a 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .292 BAA over his first seven starts of 2020. Fact is, the Phillies have gone 0-7 in his 2020 starts. Bottom line is, Velasquez is no more than a journeyman. He's made 129 career appearances (104 starts) with a 4.74 ERA , 1.38 WHIP and .259 BAA. How bad has 2020 been. His ERA is 1.72 HIGHER than his career average, his WHIP is .31 higher and his BAA .33 points higher. What's NOT to like about Ryu over Velasquez in this one?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Chi Cubs at 8:15 ET.

The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but a 10-14 stretch left them a modest 20-16 at the end of August. Minnesota opened September 10-2 but lost THREE of four to open the week in Chicago against the White Sox (note: White Sox clinched a playoff berth with Thursday's win). The 31-21 Twins remain in excellent shape for a playoff berth as they travel about eight miles north to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). Chicago hardly looks like a team ready to 'IMPLODE' down the stretch in 2020. The Cubs hired David Ross on October 24, 2019,as their manager to replace Joe Maddon, signing him to a three-year contract. It's his first major league managing gig and Ross has done an excellent job. The Cubs come to the park Friday night looking for their FIFTH straight win. 30-20 Chicago enters this series with a 5 1/2-game lead atop the NL Central. 

Getting the start in Friday's opener will be Rich Hill (2-1, 3.81 ERA) for the Twins and Kyle Hendricks (5-4, 3.29 ERA) for the Cubs. Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 63-43 career record with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). His most recent start was a MAJOR improvement, as he allowed just two ERs in five innings of an 8-4 home win over Cleveland last Saturday.

It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks made his first-ever Opening Day start back on July 24 and threw a CG, three-hitter in a 3-0 victory over Milwaukee (9-0 KW ratio). That said, the 2020 season has NOT been smooth sailing (he was just 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA through August) for Hendricks. However, he enters this game in terrific form, going 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 17-2 KW ratio in three September starts (Cubs are 3-0)!

I'm "all over" Hendricks and Cubs in this one, as Chicago comes in off back-to-back, walk-off wins against the Cleveland Indians, which followed consecutive victories against the Milwaukee Brewers by a combined score of 16-2. Cubs win! Cubs win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly and 1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning.  However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils were now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continued Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. 

Jacob deGrom's balky hamstring forced an untimely exit Wednesday night after just two innings (three runs allowed on four hits). The New York Mets fell behind 4-0 but erased that four-run deficit to rally for a 5-4 victory. That Philly loss coupled with Miami's 8-4 win over Boston, means the 25-22 Marlins are back to a 1 1/2 game lead over the 24-24 Phillies for second place in the NL East. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 11 games remaining, the Mets' season remains on 'life-support.'

The 'rubber match' of the three-game series is set for Wednesday, with Seth Lugo (2-3, 2.63 ERA) taking the mound for the Mets and Aaron Nola (5-3, 2.40 ERA) getting the nod for Philly. Lugo made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 164 appearances but just 35 starts but this marks his fifth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in those four starts and while his ERA is 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3.

Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it! He's made nine starts in 2020 and in September, posting a 1.33 ERA with a 29-4 KW ratio. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Mets this season but in his career is 8-2 (team is 10-5 in his 15 starts), posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Phillies have four games with Toronto coming up Fri-sun (doubleheader tomorrow) and the 26-22 Jays are a tough opponent fighting for a postseason spot. Last thing Philly needs is a loss here (heading into that series), after blowing a four-run lead last night. I'm backing Nola in a "big way!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly  1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning.  However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils are now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continues Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 12 games remaining, the Mets' season is currently on 'life-support.'

The Mets will hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-1, 167 ERA), while the Phillies counter with ex-Met Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47 ERA). DeGrom is trying to become just the third pitcher, after Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, to win three straight Cy Young Awards. This marks his 10th start of 2020 and his current 1.67 ERA is lower than in each of his last two Cy Young-winning seasons and that goes the same for his 0.87 WHIP and .173 BBA, as well. The difference in 2020 has been deGrom has gotten run-support in his starts this season, with the Mets going 7-2 in his starts (they were under .500 in each of his last two seasons).

Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and is living up to the high expectations expected of him. He's 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA in eight starts (Phils are 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of his eight starts this season, allowing a modest three ERs in each of the other two. Wheeler takes the mound after missing several extra days with a torn fingernail on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Wheeler suffered the bizarre injury putting his pants on. "You can't make this stuff up," Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. Hard to argue with that.

Wheeler's faced his ex-teammates twice so far in 2020 and the Phillies have won both games (he's 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA). However, the third time will NOT be the charm, as deGrom has dominated the Phillies In his career, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts (Mets are 13-3), Blowout Alert. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1).

Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days. For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three scheduled doubleheaders). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. The Cards lost Game 1 of Monday's doubleheader (2-1 in eight innings) but won 3-2 in nine innings in the nightcap. However, after two low-scoring one-run contests, it was all Milwaukee in Tuesday's single game, as the Brewers won 18-3. As the teams get set for a second doubleheader in three days, the 21-22 Cards are barely holding on to second-place in the NL Central, a half-game up on the Reds and one game up on the Brewers. The division's second-place team gets a playoff berth but the other two teams are right in the mix for the NL's two  wild card spots.

 The Game 1 starters are Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.91 ERA) for St Louis and Brandon Woodruff (2-3, 3.40 ERA) for Milwaukee. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Cards are 5-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). 

Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-5 in Woodruff's 10 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in NINE of those 10 starts.

Woodruff has only c-faced the Cards twice in his career (he is 2-0 with a 3,37 ERA) but Wainwright has made 37 career starts vs Milwaukee, going 17-10 with 2,51 ERA (teams is 23-12 in his starts). He's been very good at Milwaukee, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) and since 2014, he is 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in six starts at Miller Park. Want more "good stuff" on Wainwright. The 39-year old's 2020 ERA is 2.91 (career in 3.38), his  2020 WHIP is 1.01 (career is 1.23) and his 2020 BAA is .212 (career is .252). HUGE game here for the Cards, as the pitching staff will really be stretched out the next seven days.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday morning.

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:10 ET.

The LA Dodgers entered 2020's 60-game MLB season having won the NL West the previous SEVEN years. They were overwhelming favorites to do so again and were expected to be the NL's representative in the World Series. LA has not disappointed, as despite losing FIVE of their last eight, the Dodgers still own MLB's best record (33-15), as well as MLB's best run-differential (plus-98). That said, the Dodgers now find themselves in a 'dogfight' with NL West rival San Diego, which has won EIGHT straight, as well as 21 of its last 26.

The teams opened a three-game series at Petco Park last night, with the Padres winning 7-2. They handed three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (three ERs allowed in 6.1 IP) only his SEVENTH loss in 28 career decisions against San Diego plus also got four runs on five hits in a span of just 11 batters against the Dodgers' top-ranked, NL bullpen. San Diego's Dinelson Lamet outdueled Kershaw on Monday (allowed one run in seven innings with 11 Ks) and r-the Padres hand the ball to their best starter for tonight's game, Zach Davies (7-2, 2.48 ERA). The Dodgers counter Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.57 ERA).

Gonsolin has thrust into a key role in the Dodgers' injury-riddled rotation. He has yet to earn a win but in six appearances (five starts / Dodgers are 3-2), has given up six runs (five earned) on 18 hits and six walks with 28 strikeouts over 28.2 innings for a 0.84 WHIP and .178 BAA to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. As for Davies, his best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy. Davies has a decision in all NINE of his starts (7-2), never allowing more than three ERs in any outing. Along with his excellent ERA (2.48), he owns a superb 0.96 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .191 BAA.

Gonsolin and Davies squared off against each other back on Aug 12 at Dodger Stadium in a game won by the Dodgers 6-0. It was one of the TWO losses suffered by Davies, who gave up just two runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in seven innings. Gonsolin allowed three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings but took a no-decision. Since that loss to LA, Davies has ripped off FIVE straight wins, allowing just eight ERs over 31.2 innings for a 2.27 ERA. I woke up this morning to this tweet from ESPN' Alden Gonzalez, " The Padres have won 8 in a row and are 1 1/2 games behind one of the greatest Dodgers teams in history for first place in the National League West. Amazing." Well put Alden. I'll 'ride' Davies in this one as a small home underdog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (NL) is on the StL Cards at 7:40 ET.

The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats.

Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. I played the Cards in Game 1 yesterday and got an excellent effort from Kim (seven scoreless innings) but after the Cards took a 1-0 in the 8th, the Brewers won it with two runs in the bottom of the innings. Game 2 went 'extra-innings' as well (remember, doubleheaders are 7-innings TY), with the Cards prevailing 3-2 in nine innings.

The top two teams in each division earn a spot in the postseason and despite winning just four games in their last 10 and trailing the first-place Chicago Cubs by four games, the 21-21 Cardinals still find themselves in decent position to make the postseason. Milwaukee's loss in the second game dropped them to , the team's SIXTH loss in its last nine contests. Since a 19-0 win at Detroit on Sep 9, the Brewers have scored a total of just SEVEN runs in five games!

Jack Flaherty (3-1, 3.08 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and the Brewers will counter with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.64 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and in six starts (Cards 4-2) in 2020, owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA (second verse, same as the first). Anderson was scratched from a scheduled start this past Saturday against the Cubs due to a right hip issue but is said to be fine. The problem for Milwaukee is, he's really just a journeyman. He's made 195 appearances (183 starts) in his 12 years (for six teams), going 61-64 with a 4.07 ERA. Flaherty's getting his arm strength back from the team's 17-day COVID-forced 'hiatus' and he's my bet here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason appearance (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Monday morning reveals the 30-16 White Sox atop the division with the 30-18 Twins just one game back. As for the Indians, they are 26-21,  4 1/2 back of Chicago.

The first and  second place teams in each division make the playoffs, so it's fair to say that as the Twins and White Sox open a four-games series in Chicago on Monday night, "it's a big deal!' The Twins own a 4-2 edge against the White Sox this season but Chicago is surely 'feeling the love' and momentum from going 20-5 since the team was just 10-11 back on the morning of Aug 16.Chicago has outscored opponents 164-79 during its recent tear. The Twins opened 10-2 but were only 20-16 through the end of August. However, they head to Chicago having won 10 of 12. Getting the starts in this opening game will be  Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.40 ERA) of Minnesota and Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.33 ERA) of Chicago.

Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been so-so. The Twins are just 5-4 in his nine starts but there is good news. The first piece of good news is that he's won his last two outings (3.27 ERA) and the second piece is his career DOMINATION of the White Sox. This will be his third starts of 2020 against Chicago (both Minnesota wins) and he'll enter this game 12-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 starts against the White Sox (109 Ks in 103.2 innings), with the Twins winning 14 of those 16 starts (that's an 88% winning situation).

Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, looked pretty good. He allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. He's made two September starts, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. I like Cease but while he hasn't started against Minnesota this season, he's 0-2 with a WHOPPING 16.71 ERA in two career starts against the Twins.  Considering Berrios' career mark against Chicago, the Twins are the 'easy' pick. Now, let's win it!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cardinals at 5:10 ET.

The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats.

Milwaukee welcomes the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the team begins a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicks off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled. By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. Getting the nod in Game 1 on Monday will be the Cards' Kwang Hyun Kim (2-0, 0.83 ERA) and the Brewers' Josh Lindblom (1-3, 6.06 ERA).

Kim played in the KBO from 2007-2019, winning MVP honors in 2008 and was part of four championship teams (2007, '08, '10 and '18). He signed a two-year contract worth $11 million on December 17, 2019 with St Louis. Kim will make the fifth start of his first season in the majors, with his last outing coming when he pitched five scoreless innings on Sep 1 against the Cincinnati Reds. In his four starts, he's 2-0 (team is 3-1) with an 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

Lindblom has quite a story. He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2008 MLB draft and made his major league debut in relief on June 1, 2011. He then spent time with Philly, Texas and Oakland through 2014, before playing in the KBO in 2015 and '16. He signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 but pitched just four games, before returning to the KBO. He went 15-4 (2.98 ERA) in 2018 and 20-3 (2.50 ERA) in 2019, winning the MVP. That was enough for him to sign a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He opened the season making seven straight starts but his last two appearances were out of the bullpen. The Brewers were 3-1 in his first four starts but 0-3 in his last three, as he allowed 15 hits and nine ERs over just 13 innings (6.23 ERA).

The St Louis pitching staff may be 'gassed' by the end of this 13-game, 10-day road trip but in today's first game of the doubleheader, I'm "all over" Kim and the Cards.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 3:07 ET.

The Mets pounded the Blue Jays 18-1 on Friday but Toronto bounced back Saturday to win 3-2. That sets up the "rubber" match of this three-game series on Sunday afternoon. The regular season ends in two weeks (Sunday, Sep 27) and both teams are fighting for a postseason berth. Toronto's Saturday win allowed the Blue Jays (25-20) to maintain a half-game lead for second place in the AL East (third-place New York Yankees are). As for the 21-25 Mets, they are two games out of a National League wild-card spot.

New York sends rookie David Peterson (4-1, 4.26 ERA) to the mound, while Toronto counters with veteran Hyun Jin Ryu (3-1, 3.19 ERA). Peterson had some shoulder inflammation in mid-August and spent the minimum 10 days on the injured list. He's returned to make three appearances, earning a win as a reliever over the Baltimore Orioles Sep 2, pitching four scoreless innings. However, in his two starts, he's lasted just six innings while allowing eight ERs (12.00 ERA).

Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but had a red-hot August. He allowed one run or less in all five of his August starts, posting a 1.29 ERA, with Toronto going 4-1. He took a no-decision in that lone team loss, a game the Rays won 2-1 in 10 innings. He open2d Sep with another no-decision but again pitched well (6 IP / 1 ER) and Toronto won 2-1. He tool the mound on :Labor Day the Yankees and allowed six hits (3 HRs) and five ERs in five innings but the Jays came back to win 12-7.

The Jays are a MONEY-MAKING 7-2 in his nine starts and Toronto got more good news on Saturday, as shortstop Bo Bichette (sprained right knee) returned to Toronto's lineup from the injured list. He went 1-for-4 in his first game since Aug 15.Bichette missed 27 games, and his return should help a team that recently lost Teoscar Hernandez (oblique strain) and Rowdy Tellez (knee strain). Bichette is batting .354/.382/.646 with 5 HRs and 13 RBI. I'm backing Toronto and RYU.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 2:35 ET.

Oakland and Texas wrap up a three-day, four-game series on Sunday afternoon. The first-place A's (29-16) have moved closer to the AL West title with two wins in the first three games of the series, making them 4-2 this season at the Rangers' new home. Meanwhile, the 16-30 Rangers reside in last place in the division and as the saying goes, "they're playoff chances are slim and none, with Slim having just left town!"

However, as far as this game is concerned, the pitching matchup favors the Rangers, as Oakland's Frankie Montas (3-3, 5.73 ERA) goes up against Texas ace Lance Lynn (5-2, 2.52 ERA).The Dodgers traded Montas to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2016 season but he did not get a call to the majors in 2016. He then appeared in 23 games for the A's in 2017 (all in relief). Montas reverted to being a starter, beginning the season at the AAA level. He appeared in 13 games (11 starts) with the A's during the season, compiling a 5–4 record with a 3.88 ERA. However, he started the 2019 season 9–2 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 games (all starts), but was then suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a banned substance. Montas opened the current season 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA but after dealing with some back tightness, returned to the rotation to make his first start in nine days back on Aug 18. It's fair to say he showed a little 'rust,' allowing nine ERs on six hits (two HRs) in just 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss. His next two starts were also 'ugly,' as he allowed 13 hits, five walks and nine ERs in eight innings. That gave him a 16.76 ERA over a  three-start run. Montas did bounce back this past Tuesday, winning 4-2 (7 innings) at Houston, allowing two ERs in five innings.

Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400=plus innings over 257 appearances (233 starts) with a 103-70 record (3.54 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lyn was "back in form" this past Tuesday, beating the Angels 7-1 (7 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.52 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.54), his WHIP is 0.98 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .182,  61 points better than his LT mark (.243). went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 4-1 (2.00 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one!

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET.

There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, the 20-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in the NL Central, 5 1/2 games back of the division-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive, as they currently find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL three 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots.

The Reds took last night's game 3-1, as Luis Castillo suddenly found his 2019 form, pitching a two-hit CG. Cincy manager David Bell has opted to schedule rookie Tejay Antone (0-1, 2.49 ERA) for the start on Saturday, skipping over Anthony DeSclafani, who has failed to last more than 4.1 innings in his past four starts. That CAN"T be a bad idea, as DeSclafani (1-2, 7.20 ERA) is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals this season. As for Antone, he's made eight appearances (three starts) in 2020, allowing just one ER in each of his three starts (2.03 ERA / team is 1-2). Getting the nod for St Louis is Dakota Hudson (2-2, 3.19 ERA). He made 26 relief appearances for the Cards in 2018 but 32 of his 33 appearances in 2019 came in a starting role. He and Flaherty help lead the Cards to the NL Central title, with Hudson going 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA. A closer look reveals that the Cards went just 3-5 in his first eight stars but then with 19-5 over his last 24!

The Cards lost Hudson's first three starts of 2020, despite him posting a 1.84 ERA. However, they've won his last three, even though his ERA in that span is 3,71. However, the bottom line is that he owns a 0.77 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season (13-2 KW ratio) and is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / Cards are 5-1) against the Reds.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET.

The Los Angeles Angels may have MLB's best player in Mike Trout but they will almost assuredly be sitting out the postseason again, even with an expanded 16-team field. LA owned the AL's worst record on the morning of Sep 3 at 12-25 but suddenly ripped off FIVE straight wins. However, the 'euphoria' hasn't lasted, as after Friday night's 8-4 loss at Coors Field, LA checks in at 18-28, 6 1/2 games back of the AL's final wild card spot. The Colorado Rockies are 21-23 and have no chance to catch the first-place Dodgers and little chance to catch the second-place Padres but the NL wild card race in a mad-dash and the Rockies are 'still breathing,' as of now.

The Angels will hand the ball to Jaime Barria (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland (2-1, 3.60 ERA). Barria made 26 starts for LA in 2018 and went 10-9 with a 3.412 ERA (he led the team in wins that season). However, he split time between the minors and majors in 2019, making a more modest 19 appearances (just 13 starts) with "the big club." He was AWFUL, going 4-10 with a 6.42 ER and 1.44 WHIP. He wasn't in the starting rotation at the beginning of this season but found an opening thanks to the club's pitching problems. He's only made four appearances (two starts), with the Angels being the losing team in THREE of his four appearances.

Freeland went 11-11 (4.10 ERA) as a rookie in 2017 and then had a breakout 2018 season. He was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, as the Rockies went 23-10 in his 33 starts. However, he was AWFUL in 2019, going 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA & 1.58 WHIP with Colorado going 8-14 in his 22 starts. So what's up in 2020? Freeland has pitched at least six innings in SEVEN of his nine starts, allowing no more than three runs in each of those seven. Freeland comes in off an excellent start his last time out (Labor Day), pitching six scoreless innings vs the Padres. However, he took a no-decision in a game Colorado lost 1-0.

Freeland is the more steady pitcher and as noted, Colorado can still see a 'light at the end of the tunnel.' That's a luxury the Angels don't have, as Mike Trout is just over two weeks away from becoming a "full-time father!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET.

After a rare Friday off day for both teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Houston Astros for a brief two-game series starting in the first meeting between the teams since an emotionally-charged matchup on July 29.The Astros beat the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series but when Houston's sign-stealing was revealed, in quite naturally left the Dodgers (and Yankees) with some bitter feelings. That led to July 29th's flare-up. 

Now on to Saturday's contest. The Houston Astros visit Dodger Stadium "in a funk." The Astros opened the 2020 season having won THREE straight AL West titles, while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. However, the Astros ;limp' into LA having lost 13 of their last 20 games. They are 22-23 overall, SEVEN games back of the first-place A's and barely holding on to a postseason berth.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers own MLB's best record (32-13) and also own the best run-differential of any team at plus-98. However, the Dodgers are facing some starting pitching concerns. Walker Buehler went on the 10-day injured list because of recurring blister issues and fellow right-hander Dustin May left Thursday's outing with a left foot contusion after he was hit by a line drive. Considering that the Dodgers also shipped right-hander Ross Stripling to the Toronto Blue Jays at the Aug 31 trade deadline, they are suddenly short some arms with the stretch drive to the regular season having already arrived.

Taking the mound tonight will be a pair of left-handers, Framber Valdez (3-3, 3.61 ERA) of Houston and Julio Urias (3-0, 3.86 ERA) of LA. Valdez had looked solid this season, BEFORE his last outing on Se6 at the Angels. He pitched seven innings but allowed EIGHT earned runs in the 9-5 loss. Valdez gave up three runs on four hits over 4.1 innings to the Dodgers on July 28 and took the loss. It's his only career appearance vs LA. Urais is making his ninth start of 2020 and is 3-3 (team is 4-4). A closer look reveals that in his three road starts, his ERA is 5.40 and opponents are batting .300. However, in his five starts in Dodger Stadium, his ERA is 3.16 and his BAA is .229. He has never faced the Astros.

"Grudges" aside, LA is just the WAY better team right now, as Houston's slumping and after being MLB best road team over the last three seasons (157-86, .646), Houston owns one of MLB's worst road record at 6-17 (.261). Why would Houston's 'luck' change here in LA, where the Dodgers are 15-7, after going 59-22 at home in 2019. Dodgers win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET.

There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, after the Reds lost to the Chicago Cubs 8-5 last night (in a game that dragged past midnight because of a rain delay at the outset), the 19-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in  the NL Central, 6 1/2 games back of the decision-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive and coming off of a doubleheader split against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL there 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots.

The Cards host the Reds for this three-game weekend series, which begins a 13-game stretch against NL Central foes. FIVE games in three days against Milwaukee (two DHs) comes next (Mon-Wed) and then FIVE games in four days with Pittsburgh (1 DH) follows Thu-Sun. The Reds will send Luis Castillo (1-5, 3.95 ERA) to the mound tonight, while the Cards will counter with Adam Wainwright (4-0, 2.68 ERA).

Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, Sorry Luis! He FINALLY got his FIRST win of 2020 in his last outing, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Castillo allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out eight in six innings as the Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2. He had posted a 4.09 ERA through his first seven starts of 2020, with the Reds losing SIX of those seven.

St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 on Aug 30 (Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years)! He then held the Cubs to two runs on six hits and one walk in 6.1 innings of a 4-2 victory last Saturday (Aug 5).

I have NO idea why this is basically a pick'em game! Castillo has been a bust, while Wainwright has built off his strong September finish of 2019 (Cards are 10-2 in his regular season starts since Sep 1 of 2019). Also of note, the Cards own a plus-27 run differential on the season, while the Reds are minus-27. This game is rated a toss-up? I just DON'T get it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 8:15 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 3:40 ET.

The Houston Astros opened the 'unique' 2020 season (60-game schedule) having won THREE straight AL West tiles (101, 103 & 107 wins) and two World Series appearances (win in 2017 and lost in 2019). The Oakland Athletics had won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 but each time, lost in the winner-take-all wild card game. Here's where the AL situation as of Thursday morning, Sep 10. Houston opened just 7-10 but an EIGHT-game winning streak got them to 15-10. Houston was six games over .500 through games played Sep 3 (21-15) but then suffered a four-game sweep at the Angels over Labor Day weekend and have lost THREE of the first four here in Oakland in this five-game series, The 22-22 Astros are now 5 1/2 games back of the A's as the teams meet Thursday afternoon in Oakland. The A's opened 22-10 but then saw SIX games postponed from Aug 27 through Sep 3, losing both ends of a doubleheader to the Astros on Aug 29, the only games the team played during the above-mentioned eight-day span. Oakland returned to the field on Sep 4 and lost TWO of three to San Diego, before taking THREE of four vs Houston, with Thursday's series final going today.

Houston and Oakland square off today at 3:40 ET in the series finale, with the 26-15 A's leading the 22-22 Astros by 5 1/2 games. Both teams know that if the A's win, the Astros will be 6 1/2 games back of the A's with just 18 to play. Houston wasted a big-time effort from rookie Luis Garcia in his first big-league start on Wednesday (five scoreless innings while allowing just ONE hit) but the A's would come back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 on a walk-off single in the 9th. Houston is hoping for a similar effort from another young right-hander tonight, Jose Urquidy (0-0, 4.91 ERA). That may be asking "too much," as Urquidy has made just 10 career appearances (eight starts), with a 4.03 ERA.

Seam Manea win 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, the late 2019 Manaea has emerged in his last four starts, going 3-0 (team is 40-0) with a 2.21 ERA.

Manaea has not had much luck vs Houston in his 12 career starts (he's 2-5 and the A's are 3-9) but note his ERA of 3.48 points to the fact that the Astros have not exactly 'lit him up!' The Astros were MLB's best road team from 2017-2019, going 157-86 (.646) but that was THEN and this is NOW. Houston is 6-16 (.273) on the road in 2020, ranking them among MLB's worst road teams this season. Meanwhile, the A's opened the current season having gone 102-60 (.630) in home games the last two seasons and are playing even better (percentage-wise) here at home in 2020, going 17-7 (.708). More road woes again here for Houston.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 6:37 ET.

Before the start of the 2020 season was postponed in March, the Dodgers and Yankees were favored to meet in the 2020 World Series. Following the announcement of a 60-game season, the World Series title odds were released by various sportsbooks. At Bovada, the Dodgers and Yankees were co-favorites at +375. The adjusted season win totals for the 60-game season (teams must play 59 games) had the Dodgers at 37 wins and the Yankees at 36.5. So where do we stand as of the morning of Sep 9? The Dodgers own MLB's best record (31-12) and lead the NL West by 4 1/2 games, with their .721 winning percentage putting them on pace to win 43 games. As for the Yankees, they are a hard-to-believe 21-21, 6 1/2 games out of first and barely holding on to the AL's final wild card spot. The team's .500 record naturally projects to a 30-win season. Who'da thunk it!

The Yankees opened 9-2 and were 16-6 through Aug 17, before losing SEVEN in a row. a 4-1 stretch followed but New York has now lost SEVEN of eight, including FIVE straight. Doing the math, since the team's 16-6 start, the Yankees are 5-15. Meanwhile, The Blue Jays were not allowed to play their home games in Toronto, so they relocated to Buffalo for their home games. Coming off a 67-95 (.414) season in 2019 (36 games behind the first-place Yankees), NOTHING was expected of Toronto in 2020. However, the Blue Jays were 7-11 around the same time the Yankees were 16-6 but have gone 17-7 since Aug 17. The Jays have won the first two contests of this three-game series and look to complete a sweep tonight. Toronto is currently 24-18, just 3 1/2 games back of the Rays and THREE games up on the Yankees)

Taking the mound on Wednesday will be New York rookie Deivi Garcia (0-1, 338 ERA) and Toronto veteran Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.74 ERA). Garcia made his major-league debut on Aug 30 with six innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets in which he allowed four hits and one unearned run while striking out six (Yankees won 5-2). He then allowed four runs and five hits on Friday in 4.2 innings to take the loss against the Baltimore Orioles. Roark spent his first six seasons in Washington before being traded prior to the 2019 season. He split last year between Cincinnati and Oakland while reaching double digits in victories for the FOURTH time in the last six seasons. He's made seven starts in 2020 and while he's just 2-1, it should be noted that the Jays have won SIX of his seven starts. However, the question to be asked is why?

Roark entered the current season 74-64 in his career with a 3.71 ERA. Here in 2020, his ERA is 5.74, his WHIP 1.79 and his BAA is an 'ugly' .317. Comparing his 2020 stats to his career numbers find that his 2020 ERA is about TWO full runs higher than his career ERA (3.76), his 2020 WHIP is 0.54 higher than his career (1.25) and that brutal .317 BAA is 64 points higher than his career BAA. Yes, Judge and Stanton remain out but I see the remaining Yankee bats should have little trouble getting to Roark, whose current 2020 season has been a 'mirage." Take the rook!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The Texas Rangers welcome the LA Angels to Arlington Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. Texas enters on a SIX-game losing streak and at 13-27, pretty much has resigned itself that its season will end in late September (currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff position). The Angels may have felt the same way back on the morning of Sep3, as they were just 12-25. However, LA has won FIVE in a row since Sep e, including a four-game home sweep of the Astros. The Angels are now 17-25 and are 4 1/2 games back in the postseason race.

Tuesday's pitching matchup features LA's Andrew Heaney (3-2, 3.89 ERA) squaring off against the Rangers' Lance Lynn (4-2, 2.67 ERA). Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts). However, he's turned things around his last two outings with back-to-back wins in which he's allowed just one ER over 14.2 innings (0.61 ERA). His ERA on the season has dropped from 5.52 in those first six starts to 3.89. 

Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged EXACTLY 1,400 innings over 256 appearances (232 starts) with a 102-70 record (3.55 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he's struggled in his last two outings. He's lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA).

The Angels enter on a five-game winning streak with Heaney posting an 0.61 ERA in his last two starts, while the Rangers come in on a six-game slide, with their ONLY pitcher of note struggling in his last two (6.75 ERA). Is the obvious play on LA? Maybe but I have little faith in Heaney recent two-game surge plus the Rangers have hit him well, as Heaney owns a 5.28 ERA in 11 career starts vs Texas, including a loss this season when he allowed five runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings back on Aug 9. Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 3-1 (2.17 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Min Twins at 3:15 ET.

The 17-16 St Louis Cardinals host the 26-17 Minnesota Twins in an interleague doubleheader on Tuesday. Both teams won their respective Central Division titles last season, St Louis in the NL and Minnesota in the AL. Both are currently in second-place in those divisions, St Louis 2 1/2 games off the pace in the NL Central while Minnesota is just ONE game back in the AL Central. The Cards opened 2-3 but a COVID-19 outbreak sidelined the team for 17 days. The Cards' schedule will be jammed-packed down the stretch but enter this three-game series having won SIX of nine. The Twins opened the season 10-2 and were still 20-12 the morning of Aug 25, when they went on a SIX-game losing streak. However, Minnesota is back on track entering this contest, having won SIX of its last seven.

The Starting pitchers for Game 1 of this twin-bill will be Jose Berrios (3-3, 4.29 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (0-1, 14.73 ERA). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, he's had a disappointing current season, as the Twins are just 4-4 in his eight starts. That said, Berrios looked like his "old self" in his last outing, recording an 8-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, while striking out EIGHT batters.

 Carlos Martinez is yet another example of St Louis turning a reliever into an effective starter. From 2015 through 2017 Martinez had seasons of 14-7 (3.01 ERA), 16-9 (3.04 ERA) and 12-11 (3.64 ERA), while making 92 starts. However, he was in and out of the starting rotation in 2018, going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 33 appearances (18 starts). He returned to the bullpen full-time in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief), going 4-2 (3.17 ERA) with 24 saves. He was back in the starting rotation at the start of this season but was HAMMERED in his season debut, allowing six ERs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings in a July 28 start at Minnesota.

Here's the rub. Martinez was one of the StL players to be sidelined with COVID-19 at the end of July and this marks his first start since recovering. He returns to the club after training at the team's alternate training site in Springfield, Mo., under the guidance of minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque and longtime Cardinals coach Jose Oquendo. How will he do? He can't be worse than his only other start this year, against these same Twins (see above for a reminder). I sure wouldn't want to trust him here, as the Twins have recovered nicely from their six-game slide and I expect them to ruin Martinez's return debut.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz D'backs at 8:05 ET.

The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games back of the Dodgers last season and the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers in 2019), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row, before winning 6-5 in San Francisco on Friday. However, the D'backs lost Saturday and Sunday and enter Monday's series finale just 15-26, a WHOPPING 14 1/2 games back of the division-leading Dodgers. As for the Giants, they were only 8-16 on the morning of Aug 17 but they've won 12 of 17 since. They are now 20-21 and FIVE games better than the D'backs but more importantly are 4 1/2 games back of the second-place Padres. ALL second-place teams earn a playoff spot and while the Giants probably can't catch San Diego, they are certainly capable of earning one of the NL's two wild card spots. 

Taking the mound Labor Day evening will be  Zac Gallen (1-0, 1.80 ERA) of Arizona and Kevin Gausman (2-2, 4.43 ERA). Yes, Gallen has just that one decision in EIGHT starts here in 2020 but a closer look reveals that he's been Arizona's most effective starter all season. He's NOT allowed more than two ERs in ANY of his eight starts this season (team is 5-3 in those starts), posting an 0.94 WHIP and .182 BAA against to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. Gausman is in his eighth big league season and the Giants are his FOURTH team (career record of 49-65, with a 4.30 ERA). He's made eight appearances so far in 2020 (seven starts), with the Giants going 2-5 in his seven starts. He has no real history to speak of vs the D'backs, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four games (three starts / teams are 1-2 & his ERA is 3.57). 

This is the final meeting of the season between these two NL west rivals, with the Giants having won SEVEN of the first nine. Add to that, the fact that the Diamondbacks have lost 15 of their last 17 games and one may ask, "Why play Arizona?" The reason is Zac Gallen who owns the major league record with 23 starts allowing three or fewer ERs to begin a career. Not bad, huh? D'backs are WAY better than their record and get the "W" in this one. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Astros at 4:10 ET.

The Houston Astros came to Anaheim on Friday with a modest 21-15 record. After all, the Astros had won THREE straight AL West titles, while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. However, the Astros were two games back of the A's in 2020 and hoped to pick up some ground against the Angels, with a FIVE-game series at Oakland looming Monday-Thursday. And why shouldn't the Astros have been thinking that way? The Angels entered 2020 off FIVE straight non-playoff seasons, with 2019 being the worst of the bunch, as LA finished 72-90 (.444), a WHOPPING 35 games back of the Astros. In fact, that .444 'winning' percentage was looking pretty good to the 2020 Angels on Friday morning, as they sat 13-25 (.342), 11 games back of the division-leading A's.

So where are we as of Sunday morning? The Angels take the field on Sunday looking for a FOUR-game sweep of the Astros. LA won Friday night 6-5 in 11 innings and then in Saturday's doubleheader, came from behind twice in their last at-bats to win 10-9 and 7-6 in those seven-inning contests. As Vince Lombardi once famously yelled, "What the hell is going on out there?" Taking the mound for Sunday's series finale will be Houston's Framber Valdez (3-2, 2.58 ERA) and LA's Jaime Barria (0-0, 2.63 ERA).

Neither pitcher has much MLB experience but Valdez has looked solid this season, making seven appearances, including six starts. The lone relief appearance turned into a 6.1-inning effort at LA back on Aug 2, when he allowed just one unearned run in the game the Astros won 6-5 in 11 innings. He faced the Angels again on Aug 24 (in Houston) and allowed four ERs over seven innings but easily got the win in an 11-4 Houston victory. Barria made 26 starts for LA in 2018 and went 10-9 with a 3.412 ERA. However, he made a more modest 19 appearances in 2019 (just 13 starts) and was awful, going 4-10 with a 6.42 ER and 1.44 WHIP. He's made just three appearances in 2020, the first two in relief. His first start came on Aug 31 at home vs Seattle, when he took a no-decision (4.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER) in a 2-1 Mariners win.

This play really isn't about the starters, although I do believe Valdez ( gives Houston the edge over Barria. Note that Valdez is 4-2 in his career against Los Angeles with a 3.20 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts (Astros are 3-1 and his ERA is 2.74). With FIVE games in four days with the A's looming Monday-Thursday, the LAST thing Houston needs is to get swept by the Angels. After THREE straight one-run losses, Houston gets off the schneid and wins here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET.

The Padres won Game 1 of this three-game series against the A's in Oakland 7-0 on Friday night but the A's rebounded nicely on Saturday, winning 8-4. The rubber match is set for Sunday. The 24-17 Padres know it's VERY unlikely they'll catch the 30-11 Dodgers in the NL West (sit SIX games back) but with ALL second-place teams in each division assured of a playoff spot (plus two wild cards), the Padres are almost a 'lock' to be playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2006. As for the A's, they lead the Astros by 3 1/2 games in the AL West and barring a total collapse, are headed to the postseason for the THIRD straight season.

Squaring off in Sunday's contest will be LA's Garrett Richards (1-2, 4.63 ERA) and Oakland's Mike Fiers (4-1, 4.86 ERA). Richards spent eight years with the Angels, before signing a two-year deal with San Diego. However, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss almost ALL of 2019 (made just three September appearances). Here in 2020, he's been AWFUL at home (7.82 ERA / team is 1-3) but very good  on the road (2,82 ERA / team is 3-1). However, it's hard for Richards to match Fiers' numbers since coming to Oakland. His overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.43  WHIP  and .282 BAA to go along with his 4.86 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 6-1 in his seven 2020 starts. 

Should we be surprised? Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 50 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 37-13 (.740) in those contests! Want more? The A's are 22-4 in Fiers' 26 home starts at Oakland Coliseum (that's an 85% winning percentage), where the A's have gone 14-5 (.737) in 2020, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons. With that record, just how are the A's an underdog (or pick'em) in this situation? The A's have the Astros coming to town for FIVE games in four days beginning on Labor Day and a win here would be a nice way to lead into that VERY important series. Once again, Fiers "gets the CA$H!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:15 ET.

The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games of the Dodgers last season and  the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row as they opened a four-game series in San Francisco last night. While the D'backs sat 14-24 prior to last night's game, the Giants could actually 'sniff' a possible playoff berth at 18-20.

The D'backs beat the Giants 6-5 last night and the two teams continue their four-game series tonight at Oracle Park, as Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 9.35 ERA) takes on Trevor Cahill (0-0, 2.51 ERA). Bumgarner needs no introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants. He signed a five-year contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, worth $85 million back on December 17, 2019, Things haven't gone well for the former World Series MVP. He made his Diamondbacks debut as a Opening Day starting pitcher and after going 0-3 in four starts (team was 0-4 and he owned a 1.56 WHIP and .282 BAA to go along with his near-10.00 ERA), was placed on the disabled list on August 10, 2020.

Trevor Cahill began his career with Oakland, where he pitched from 2009-11. He was terrific in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA) but from 2012 through 2019, he pitched for SEVEN different teams (including a second stint with Oakland) with VERY little success. Cahill signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2019 season and had a career worst 5.98 ERA while being demoted to the bullpen. He signed a major league contract with the San Francisco Giants on Feb 26, 2020. He began the season sidelined with a fingernail injury but was put on the major league roster right before a game with Houston on Aug 21. He was only expected to throw about 50 pitches and was pulled after 55, walking four in just 1.2 innings. However, he's remained in the starting rotation and while he hasn't pitched 'deep into any of his last three starts (3.1 innings to 5.1 innings), he's allowed just four ERs on seven hits over 12.2 innings for a 2.84 ERA.

Let me note that the Giants have won all THREE of Cahill's last three starts and his teams have won THREE of his four career starts vs the Giants. Meanwhile, Bumgarner comes off the IL to face the team he starred for from 2009-2019. His fastball has lost its zip (topped out at 85-87 MPH) in his last outing vs the Padres back on Aug 9, when he allowed four HRs and six ERs in just two innings. In his previous start (Aug 4 vs Houston), he allowed EIGHT runs (seven earned) on seven hits (two HRs) in just 4.1 innings. The saying is, "You can't go home" and Bumgarner learns that lesson tonight.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1 of doubleheader).

The Brewers, Cards and Cubs have been "the usual suspects" in the NL Central in recent years. The Brewers won the division in 2018 (made it to NLCS but lost in seven games to LA) and in 2019 earned a wild card berth. The Cubs had a late-season collapse in 2019, ending a four-year postseason run (2015-18) which included division titles in 2016 and 2017, when the Cubs won their first World series title since 1908! St Louis is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011. That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning seasons in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept.

The Yankees/Red Sox and Dodgers/Giants have to be considered MLB's top-two rivalries but don't tell that to Midwest fans, who know all about rivalry series when the Cards and Cubs square off. These two longtime and bitter rivals are playing a five-game series at Wrigley Field this Labor Day weekend (Fri-Mon). The series opened last night with Chicago winning 4-1, as the 23-15 Cubs opened a 4 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the 14-15 Cardinals and 18-19 Brewers (18-19). The series continues with a Saturday doubleheader, with the Cardinals serving as the home team for the second half of the twin-bill. In fact, the Cubs and Cardinals are playing their entire 10-game season series in Chicago this season due to the rescheduling of COVID-19 postponements." Addressing that situation, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told reporters, "That's just one of those deals. I just look at the games as a game. It's clearly an anomaly that I'm sure -- well, I'm not sure of anything some days. Be careful what you say will never happen again because as soon as you think something won't happen, it will pop up. So it's obviously very different." That quote pretty much sums up the state of sports here in 2020.

The Game 1 pitching matchup features St Louis veteran Adam Wainwright (3-0, 2.65 ERA) going up against Chicago rookie Adbert Alzolay (0-0, 0.00 ERA). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Then this past Sunday, Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 Sunday, snapping a four-game skid. Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years!

Cubs manager David Ross has had to improvise with starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood shelved by forearm strain, The Cubs had hoped to plug Jose Quintana into his rotation slot but Quintana went on the 10-day injured list with a left lat muscle strain. Instead, the Cubs promoted top pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay to start the first half of Saturday's doubleheader (note: Ross expects to use a series of relievers to get through Game 2). Alzolay faced the Cardinals on Aug 19 and held them to one unearned run on two hits in five innings of a doubleheader game. He struck out six batters and walked only one in a 4-2 victory.

Wainwright is 16-13 with a 4.15 ERA in 50 career outings against the Cubs, including 41 starts (team is 24-17). Meanwhile, Alzolay has six career appearances (three starts) with 12.1 innings pitched "under his belt." I had Wainwright last Sunday and will back him again in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the SD Padres at 9:40 ET.

The Oakland A's were 22-10 on the morning of Aug 27th but sat out that Thursday game with the Rangers. They then moved to Houston for an important three-game series with the Astros but the two teams sat out Friday's game in protest, forcing a Saturday doubleheader. The A;s would lose both ends of that doubleheader and then pitcher Daniel Mengden tested positive for the coronavirus, forcing a postponement of Sunday's final. The A's then postponed a three-game series with Seattle Mon-Thu but are now "safe to return to play." However, as they welcome the Padres to Oakland on Friday, the team begins a stretch of 14 games in 11 days! Oakland is 22-12, two games up on Houston in the AL West.

The 23-16 Padres come to Oakland with a whole new cast of characters, including starter Mike Clevinger, reliever Trevor Rosenthal, catchers Jason Castro and Austin Nola, designated hitter Mitch Moreland and outfielder Greg Allen, all acquired via trade in the days leading up to the Aug 31 deadline. Clevinger started last night for San Diego at the LAA and took a hard-luck 2-0 loss, although he pitched well (6 IP / 2 ERs). "It's the most exciting team in baseball right now," Clevinger gushed of the new-look Padres shortly after joining the club. "It's kind of the place to be right now."

Zach Davies (5-2, 2.61 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego, while Oakland counters with Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.74 ERA).Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy with the way he's pitched. Davies has a decision in all SEVEN of his starts (5-2) and along with his excellent ERA (2.61), he owns a superb 0.90 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .189 BAA. Luzardo pitched just 12 innings (six relief appearances) in 2019 but this season has made seven appearances, including five starts. He is far from outstanding but he's been solid, as the A's are 4-1 in his starts. However, he hasn't pitched in 11 days since suffering his first loss of the season, 3-2 at Texas last Monday. Meanwhile, the A's haven't played since losing both ends of a doubleheader at Houston last Saturday. That's NOT a great 'daily double' when facing Davies and a San Diego team 'smelling' a playoff berth for the first time since the 2006 season. I'm taking the 'juicy' price with Davies.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET.

The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61. The Indians opened the current season just 5-6 and sat 10-9 through Aug 12. However, Cleveland has won 13 of 18 since and currently leads the AL Central by a half-game over the White Sox and 1 1/2 over the Twins. The Brewers, Cards and Cubs were "the usual suspects" heading into this year's 60-game schedule. Milwaukee won the division in 2018 (lost the NLCS to LA in seven games) and last year earned the NL's second wild card spot but blew a three-run lead at Washington in losing that winner-take-all game, 4-3 The Brewers have not been over .500 ALL season and currently are 17-19, leaving then in third-place in the division, 4 1/2 games out of first.

The Cleveland Indians hope to create some breathing room in the top-heavy AL Central on Friday when they begin a three-game series against the visiting Milwaukee The Brewers have won FOUR of their last six contests heading into this opener of a five-game road trip. Friday's game continues a stretch of seven straight interleague contests for Milwaukee. Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes (1-0, 2.78 ERA) and Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 3.75).

Burness was a rookie in 2018 and went 7-0 with 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 300 appearances (middle reliever). However, he made 32 appearances last year (four starts) going 1-5 with his ERA and WHIP ballooning to 8.82 and 1.84, respectively. He's regained his 2018 form in the first half of this season, as in seven appearances (4 starts), he's 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Burnes, struck out a career-high 10 batters and scattered three hits over six scoreless innings in a 9-1 win over Pittsburgh last Friday (team is 2-2 in his four starts).

Carrasco was coming off back-to-back strong seasons entering 2019, having gone 18-6, 3.29 ERA and 17-10, 3,38 ERA, respectively. He took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but only days later, was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27 of this season, as he won his first start in 423 days! His first three starts of 2020 went well, as he allowed just five ERs over 18 innings (6 IP in each), for a 2.50 ERA and had 23 Ks in those 18 innings. As for his next three starts? NOT so good. He has lasted more than 4.1 innings in any of them, allowing 10 ERs over 12 innings for a 7.50 ERA. He has 16 Ks in those 12 innings but he's also allowed NINE walks!

However, Carrasco scattered two hits and struck out six in six scoreless innings of a 2-1 (12 inn.) victory for Cleveland at St. Louis last Saturday. That's the kind of pitching the Indians need from Carrasco, with Clevinger traded to San Diego. Some good news here is that he has won both of his career starts vs the Brewers, posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Brewers are just NOT the same team in 2020 that they were in 2018 and 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:05 ET.

The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason experience (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Thursday morning reveals the Indians (23-14), White Sox (22-15) and the Twins (22-16) are all bunched together at the top of the division, separated by just 1 1/2 games. As for the Royals, who welcome the White Sox to KC for a four-game series beginning tonight, you'll find them in last-place at 14-23. That's NINE games back of Cleveland, which just beat KC Tuesday and Wednesday (10-1 & 5-1), after the Royals took the opener of that series 2-1 on Monday.

The Royals were just in Chicago last weekend, losing TWO of three to the White Sox, dropping them to 1-5 against them on the season. This four-game series will complete the season series between the two teams. Taking the mound will be Chicago's Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.00 ERA), going up against KC's Danny Duffy (2-2, 4.11 ERA). Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, has looked pretty good. He's allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. Cease started last Saturday against the Royals in Chicago and while he allowed just one ER and one hit, he walked SIX batters and after 93 pitches was removed after 4.1 innings (Chicago would lose, 9-6). However, back on Aug 2 in KC, he allowed just two ERs over six innings of a 9-2 White Sox win over the Royals.

KC's Danny Duffy is in his 10th season with the Royals. He made his debut in 2011 when the Royals lost 91 games but he was there when they went to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, winning it the second time. However, he's now a part of another rebuild. KC lost the first three times he took the mound in 2020 (Duffy was 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA) but the Royals then won his next three starts (Duffy was 2-0 with 3.86 ERA). Duffy also pitched (like Cease) in last weekend's series between the two teams, lasting 5.2 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits in a 6-6 KC loss (he took a no-decision).

Duffy's seen plenty of the White Sox over his career, making 24 starts against Chicago while going 10-6 with 4.12 ERA (KC is 15-9). Duffy has started 188 of his 216 career appearances but checks in 62-63 for his career. He's made 20-plus starts in SEVEN of his previous nine seasons but has produced just ONE winning record in that span, going 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 42 appearances (26 starts). However, even in that season (his best as a major-leaguer, he poste a 5.50 ERA in six September starts, as the Royals went 1-5!) He's really nothing more than a journeyman and he's facing a young pitcher with real potential in Cease, who also owns the advantage of pitching for the MUCH better team! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on the SD Padres at 7:10 ET.

Mike Clevinger was the biggest name to change teams at the trade deadline, as the Cleveland Indians sent him to the San Diego Padres this past Monday. He'll make his San Diego debut tonight in Anaheim against the Angels, the team that selected Clevinger in the fourth round of the 2011 Major League Baseball draft (more later). The 23-15 Padres are FIVE games back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West but with an expanded postseason field, the Padres are "looking good" for reaching the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season. Meanwhile, the LA Angels are currently 12-25, the owners of the AL's worst record. Mike Trout is now less than a month away from being a full-time father.

Clevinger never reached the big leagues with the Angels and had elbow reconstruction surgery in 2013. He was traded to the Cleveland Indians on May 18, 2016. He made 17 appearances (10 starts) for Cleveland in 2016 but went just 3-3 with a 5.220 ERA. However, from 2017-19, he was 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA. Big things were expected for him in 2019 but he made just four starts (1-1, 3.18 ERA) for the Indians in 2020, as his season was interrupted because he was placed on the restricted list by the Indians for breaking COVID-19 protocols in early August.

Taking the mound for the Angels will be Andrew Heaney (2-2, 4.62 ERA). He is coming off his best performance of 2020in his last outing, allowing just one run on four hits over 7.2 innings with 10 Ks in LA;s 3-2 win last Friday vs the Mariners. Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts).

The Angels are a 'MESS' and Heaney is nothing more than a journeyman pitcher (22-28 with a 4.45 ERA in 88 career appearances / 84 starts). Meanwhile, the Padres are a playoff-caliber team in 2020 , as the team's plus-50 run differential ranks SECOND to only the Dodgers among NL teams (it's 3rd-best among all 30 MLB teams!). Clevinger HAS to be excited about his opportunity for a fresh start with a new team and his debut comes against the team that originally drafted him. The fact that Clevinger is 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts (team is 5-1) is just "icing on the cake!" Late-Breaker on the Padres.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET.

The Minnesota Twins entered last night's game with the White Sox on a SIX-game losing streak. After opening 10-2, the Twins had fallen to 20-16, 2 1/2 games back of the first-place Whit Sox and 1 1/2 back of the second-place Indians. However, after falling behind 2-0 in the top of the first last night, the Twins shut out Chicago over the final eight innings to snap their six-game slide, 3-2. It was just Chicago's THIRD loss in its last 15 but coupled with Cleveland's 10-1 on Tuesday, the White Sox woke up this morning tied with the Indians for the AL Central lead, with the Twins 1 1/2 games back. 

The rubber game of this three-game series is set for tonight, as Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.75 ERA) takes on Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00 ERA). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, he's had a disappointing start to the current season, as the Twins are just 3-4 in his starts, while he's got  a 1.47 WHIP to go along with his near-5.00 ERA. Lopez has made just three starts in 2020 but while the White Sox have won two of them, it's HARD to ignore that the one loss came vs Minnesota back on July 26 when he got just TWO outs before being pulled after allowing FOUR runs.  

That 'ugly' effort v]can hardly be seen as a surprise, as Lopez is 1-5 with a 6.48 ERA in eight career starts vs Minnesota (team is 2-6). In STARK contrast, Berrios has dominated the White Sox in his career, going 11-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 career starts (Twins are 13-2, making this an 87% winning situation). 

Good luck...Larry