Cappers Sports Picks

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this position. The Cubs fell 4-3 yesterday and face another tough task in having to face Mets’ ace Jacob DeGrom today.

DeGrom (3-4, 2.67 ERA) comes in off a gem vs. the Braves on Saturday, giving up no runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out six over eight innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his commanding effort. 

DeGrom has now posted six straight quality starts and will look to improve upon his already impressive 2.51 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Chicago counters with Jason Hammel (7-4, 2.58) who gave up two runs off four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out three in a loss to the Marlins on Sunday. 

It’s hard to say anything negative about Hammel right now, the veteran is putting together the best season of his career to this point.

But as good as Hammel has been, I think DeGrom gets the nod on the bump today, he’s a “different” pitcher in front of the home town crowd and there’s no reason not to think that that strong trend won’t get carried over today. All things considered, I think this is a fantastic price.

Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (1:07 EST).

The Indians took the opener of this series 4-1 yesterday and are looking for a club record 14th straight victory this afternoon. Suffice it to say, I think the Tribe finds a way to get the job done vs. erratic Toronto starter Marcus Stroman. 

Josh Tomlin (9-1, 3.22 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Stroman (6-4, 5.33) comes into this one having gone 1-3 with a ballooned 8.44 ERA over his past six outings.

Toronto has lost seven of its last past 11 after winning 20 of its previous 28. Stroman contributed to the losing streak by giving up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a setback to the White Sox on Sunday. 

Tomlin is coming off a 9-3 win over the Tigers on Sunday, giving up three runs off six hits and a walk over eight innings. Tomlin has had varying success north of the border and vs. the Jays overall, but has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s 5-0 with a highly respectable 2.76 ERA in seven starts on the road thus far. Tomlin has given up only eight walks in 362 opponents that he’s faced this year and his 0.81 walks per nine innings is second in MLB to only Clayton Kershaw.

I think Tomlin outduels his struggling counterpart and Cleveland sets its new franchise win streak.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (10:10 EST).

Baltimore is surging and will look to keep the momentum rolling in what is another favorable pitching matchup.

The visitors send ace Chris Tillman (10-1, 3.52 ERA) to the hill, he looks to rebound off his worst outing of the year, giving up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Rays on Saturday. The six runs given up were the most and the two K’s posted were his fewest in a contest since April 14th. 

Regardless, Baltimore has lost just two games that Tillman has started this season, he’s enjoying a whopping 5.7 runs of backing per game over his last ten trips to the hill. Tillman has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 3-1 with a very respectable 3.66 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (3-6, 3.45) who was diagnosed with tendinitis in his foot last week, but who managed to avoid going on the DL and throwing a 40-pitch bullpen on Tuesday. 

I think Tillman has the slight advantage in this matchup and will also give the nod to the Orioles at the plate, they’re tearing the cover off the ball and everything points to another offensive outburst. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

I think this is a great situational play. Both pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others.

Both teams posses some of the biggest bats in the league, so we’ll call this area a “wash.” 

Mets’ starter Steven Matz (7-3, 3.29 ERA) though has bone spurs in his pitching elbow and while he’s been cleared to play tonight and it’s been determined that they’ll with the issue at a later time, it’s still a psychological factor that the second-year starter now has to deal with. 

It’s a great angle to take advantage of today.

John Lackey (7-4, 3.29) counters for the hard-hitting Cubbies, he’s coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in an eventual 9-6 loss to the Fish on Saturday. He’d also strike out five. 

The Chicago veteran has now dropped consecutive decisions, but clearly won’t be panicking, he looks to get back on track and improve upon his already solid 3.30 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Great price all things considered, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (2:10 EST).

Kenta Maeda (6-5, 2.91 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors. Maeda comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs off four hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. 

No need to hit the panic button if your a Maeda fan though, it was just the first time that he’s given up more than two earned in a start in six outings. Maeda has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back as he’s 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Zach Davies (5-3, 3.74) who comes in off a decent outing vs. Washington on Friday, giving up three runs while striking out nine over five innings in the eventual no-decision. Davies owns a pedestrian 3.84 ERA in all day games this year.

I like Maeda to bounce back from his latest dud and return to form, the talented right-hander has a track record of success in this situation and there’s no question that the price is right. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (3:40 EST). 

The hard-hitting Orioles will look to take advantage of this favorable pitching matchup.

Baltimore sends Yovani Gallardo (2-1, 6.04 ERA) to the hill, he most recently comes in off a no-decision vs. the Rays on Friday, giving up three runs over 5.1 innings of work. 61 of his 96 pitches were for strikes. Gallardo has been decent in his limited time so far, not great though. He’s fortunate to be backed by one of the highest scoring teams in the league.

The home side counters with Christian Friedrich (4-2, 3.60) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and four walks in five innings in a very fortunate victory over the soft-hitting Reds on Thursday. Friedrich struck out just two, making it the fourth time in eight outings that he’s failed to post more K’s than walks. After a decent start to the season, Friedrich has clearly regressed, having given up ten runs over his last 11 innings of work (and note that he owns a poor 5.57 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far). Friedrich is very unfortunate to be backed by one of the lowest scoring teams in the majors.

Baltimore has been tearing the cover off the ball, Friedrich is in for a long day today. I think Gallardo outduels his struggling counterpart and the Orioles provide just enough offense to secure the victory.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:40 EST). 

Toronto blew a late four run lead and lost 9-5 in yesterday’s series opener, but I think the hard-hitting Jays bounce back this evening and take advantage of this very favorable pitching matchup.

The home side sends the volatile Eddie Butler (2-4, 6.71 ERA) to the hill, he most recently was shelled for six runs off nine hits over 3 1/3’s innings in a loss to the Marlins on June 18th and then followed up that pathetic effort with another dud vs. the Diamondbacks on Thursday, getting blasted for six runs off 11 hits over five innings of work. 

The visitors counter with JA Happ (9-3, 3.42) who has likely been Toronto’s most consistent starter this year, most recently giving up two runs off six hits while striking out a season-high eight in a victory over Arizona on Wednesday. It was Happ’s third straight win and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he comes into this contest with a superb 4-2, 2.63 ERA record on the road.

I think Happ outduels his struggling counterpart and helps his team break an 0-7 slide in Colorado. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (8:10 EST). 

The Dodgers broke out of their season-long five-game losing streak in yesterday’s 5-4 victory at Pittsburgh and will look to keep the momentum rolling here: "It was resiliency," LA manager Dave Roberts assessed afterwards. "We spotted them four in the first (inning), and (Scott Kazmir) goes out there and throws up four zeroes and we responded, put up a crooked number and found a way to win a baseball game."

The Dodgers have to be feeling pretty confident today, these teams met just over a week ago and LA took three of the four meetings. 

Julio Urias is still loking for his first victory, but after a rocky two start opening to his career, Urias has looked brilliant, posting a 2.33 ERA in his last four, covering 19 1/3’s frames of work. And Urias’ best outing of his career came against Milwaukee, holding it scoreless over five innings, allowing a walk and five hits while striking out a career-high eight in the unfortunate no-decision on June 17th. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson, who makes his first start since getting shelled for seven runs over just 2 1/3’s innings vs. the Dodgers in the most recent series. Anderson has struggled against the Dodgers throughout his career, as he’s just 1-1 with a poor 5.05 ERA in seven previous meetings.

I think Urias should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup, the rookie is now poised to collect his first victory of the season in this favorable situation. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

The Tigers beat the Marlins twice to open the 2016 campaign, but Miami comes to down a much more confident team. I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for Adam Conley to outduel his struggling counterpart.

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now. Detroit is back to .500 after dropping to 0-9 vs. Cleveland, losing a third straight three-game series over the weekend, while Miami is six games over .500 for the first time since 2012 after taking a weekend series from league leading Chicago Cubs.

Conley (4-4, 3.56 ERA) comes in off a gem, working eight innings of shutout ball, giving up just four scattered hits in the dominant effort. Conley has been very effective on the road this year as well, going 2-1 with a highly respectable 3.83 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Pelfrey (1-7, 4.91), who in his most recent start was shelled for six earned runs off 12 hits. Pelfrey has a brutal track record vs. the Fish which dates to his time while with the New York Mets, going 1-9 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA in 18 career meetings. 

Miami though is also getting the job done defensively as it’s gone 26 straight games without recoding an infield error, which according to STATS LLC, makes it the most consecutive games without and error since 1913: “The defense has been really good," coach Don Mattingly said. "We seemed shaky early, but we really kind of hit our stride. Martin (Prado's) unbelievable at third. (Adeiny Hechavarria), obviously, he's been one of those guys on the Gold Glove list the last few years. Derek's been solid. (Justin Bour) has been fine at first. We've been a pretty good defensive club, and we thought we would be."

I think the oddsmaker’s have indeed made an egregious error in this case, play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

Boston looks to rebound from yesterday’s 13-7 loss. Manager John Farrell called a meeting after that game as his team has dropped six of eight and allowed at least six runs in six straight. 

The good news is though is that the Red Sox are still 41-35 due completely to their 29-17 start to the season. 

The visitors turn to veteran Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.93 ERA) to stop the bleeding, he will look to shut down the anemic Rays’ lineup. Tampa Bay’s 11-game losing streak ended in yesterday’s 13-7 victory, but I’m going to caution in reading too much into that offensive outburst. Tampa Bay hadn’t scored more than six runs at any point during its 11-game slide. 

And unfortunately for the home side, sending struggling “ace” Chris Archer (4-10, 4.70) to the hill is not conducive to keep the momentum rolling. Archer owns a major league-worst ten losses and his 1.43 WHIP is poor to say the least. His 10.57 K/9 rate is the second highest of his career, but his BB/9 and HR/9 rate, along with his ERA and WHIP are all on pace to be his worst ever. Note that Archer has been particularly poor in this spot all year, going 4-6 with a 4.23 ERA in all “night” games.

Porcello comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings vs. the White Sox on Thursday. The veteran has come back down to Earth of late since opening the season on a blistering run, but he has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 5-2 with a 3.77 ERA in all night contests.

I think the hungry Red Sox and Porcello find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Arizona swept the Phiillies in a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park two weeks ago and will look to do the same at home.

The Diamondbacks return to friendly confines off a four-game series split at Colorado, setting a club-record with a whopping 56 hits. 

Robbie Ray (4-6) gets the call for the home side, he’ll be opposed by Vincent Velasquez (5-2). 

Ray would beat Philadelphia with a quality start to open his team’s successful 7-3 road trip. The Phillies’ small win skein is a distant memory now, they’re 6-25 since an 8-5 victory over the Tigers on May 25th. 

Ray will look to duplicate his performance on June 17th, holding Philadelphia to two runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out seven and walking one.

Velasquez didn’t face Arizona in that series, but if he’s had one weakness this year it’s definitely been his play on the road where he’s posted a poor 5.79 ERA thus far.

For arguments sake, let’s call the starters a “wash.” Clearly Arizona has the big advantage at the plate though and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting an excellent price in this matchup. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:40 EST).

The hard-hitting Blue Jays will look to take advantage of hitter-friendly Coors Field and this favorable pitching mismatch.

Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings while also striking out five in a victory over the Phillies on Wednesday. Estrada has now held the opposition to five hits or fewer in ten straight starts. He’d also post his sixth straight quality outing while recording five-plus K’s for the fourth consecutive start. Estrada now leads the AL in WHIP (0.98) and is third in ERA. 

The home side counters with Jon Gray (4-3, 4.93) who was yanked after the third inning because of arm fatigue in his last start vs. the Yanks. Gray has been cleared to go today though and he’ll bring his pedestrian 5.02 home ERA to the table. 

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a matchup which favors Toronto’s big bats and all things considered, this is a very fair price. Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (4:10 EST).

This is the conclusion of an already successful ten game road trip for the Diamondbacks, coming into the finale having gone 7-2. 

I think the visitors come up short here and have a predictable letdown. Colorado comes in with plenty of confidence after yesterday’s 11-6 victory. 

Patrick Corbin (4-6, 4.63 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he’s coming off his best outing of the year, going 6.1 innings and holding the Blue Jays to two runs off eight hits and three walks with three K’s in the victory Tuesday. Corbin got a bit lucky though, as he’d put on a ton of baserunners and only paid for it once. Corbin’s big weakness has been the long-ball this year, giving up 13 in 15 starts. Clearly that doesn’t bode well in pitching at hitter friendly Coors Field today (and note that Corbin is 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA in all “day” games this year).

The home side counters with Chad Bettis (6-5, 5.44) who comes in off consecutive victories over the Yankees, most recently allowing four runs (two earned), off eight hits with one walk and eight K’s over six innings on Tuesday. 

I think Arizona “checks out” of this one early at the end of a long road trip and expect Bettis and the Rockies to take full advantage.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST). 

Chris Sale (12-2, 2.83 ERA) leads the majors with 12 victories and comes in off one of his best outings of the season, holding the hot-hitting Red Sox to one run off four scattered hits over seven innings at Fenway Park. Chicago is 12-3 this year with Sale on the mound. When Sale faced the Jays on April 26th, he’d hold them to a single run over eight innings. For his career, he’s 3-1 with a very respectable 2.25 ERA in four career starts vs. Toronto. 

The White Sox hit seven home runs in yesterday’s 10-8 loss, all solo shots and will now try to duplicate that production vs. the volatile Marcus Stroman (6-3, 5.23), who has struggled in June, going 1-2 with an atrocious 7.89 ERA. Most recently Stroman was shelled for seven runs over just 3 2/3’s innings vs. the Orioles on Sunday and he’s now allowed at least six runs in four of his last seven outings.

No need to over-think this one, Sale is putting together the finest campaign of his career, while Stroman has clearly taken a major step back. All things considered, this is indeed a great price, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (1:35 EST).

The Mets have taken two of three in this four game series and I think they’ll once again find a way to get the job done in the finale.

The Braves turn to Bud Norris (2-7, 4.69 ERA), while New York sends veteran Bartolo Colon (6-3, 3.00) to the hill.

Norris has actually done well since returning ot the rotation, over his last four games he’s 1-1 with a 2.82 ERA. Unfortunately a date vs. the Mets is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling as he’s 1-3 with a poor 4.47 ERA in 48 1/3 lifetime innings vs. them.

Colon on the other hand has dominated Atlanta throughout his career, facing it 12 times and going 9-2 with a very respectable 2.44 ERA. 

I’m giving Colon the nod on the bump in this matchup and the Mets the slight nod at the plate and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST).

Detroit has dropped the first two games of this series, but I think the Tigers will find a way to salvage the finale. 

In fact, the Tigers have now lost all three series so far this season vs. Cleveland after getting swept in the other two. 

Josh Tomlin (8-1, 3.32 ERA) goes for the visitors. Tomlin has started to show some “cracks in the armor” of late, most recently he’d give up four runs off five hits over seven innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the soft-hitting Rays. Tomlin’s big weakness has been the long-ball this year as he’s allowed at least one dinger in ten of his 11 starts this season. Also note that Tomlin owns a rather pedestrian 4.09 ERA in all “day” games this year.

The home side counters with the resurgent Justin Verlander (7-5, 3.78) who gave up two runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mariners on Tuesday. The veteran has now gone at least six frames in each of his past nine outings, seven of which have been quality starts. And over that span Verlander has posted a spectacular 69:13 K:BB over 65.1 innings to go along with a 2.34 ERA. 

I think this sets up as classic letdown spot for Cleveland and there’s no question that the price is right as well. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST). 

I like the visiting Dodgers to bounce back after yesteday’s 8-6 defeat. 

It was a rare victory for Pittsburgh, which came in having lost three straight and was just 7-20 since mid May. 

Suffice it to say, I believe the home side makes an immediate return to mediocrity this evening.

Jeff Locke (6-5, 5.44 ERA) gets the call for Pittsburgh. He’s coming off a decent outing vs. the Giants last week in his team’s 1-0 victory, but had allowed 18 runs over his previous two starts. Note that Locke is 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in his career vs. LA.

Kenta Maeda (6-4, 2.64) counters for the visitors, he comes in off a gem, going seven innings and giving up one run off six hits with eight K’s in the 2-1 victory. 

Maeda has been particularly dominant on the road as well, going 4-0 with a tiny 2.14 ERA to date.

Maeda comes in top form and I think will be able to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. All things considered, I believe we’re getting a very fair price in this matchup, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

Tampa is in the midst of an eight-game losing streak and with the return of slugger Manny Machado to the Orioles line-up, I simply don’t see that streak of futility ending this evening. 

Machado returned after serving a four game suspension in Friday’s 6-3 win over the Rays. 

Chris Tillman (10-1, 3.11) gets the call for the home side in the second game of the double-header, he comes in with a ton of momentum, currently on a nine-game win streak. 

The visitors counter with Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.63), who owns a pedestrian 4.38 ERA in all road contests this season.

Before yesterday’s setback, Tampa Bay had hit just .183 in seven games prior.

That doesn’t bode well for the visitors today in facing Tillman, who is 7-0 with a very respectable 2.81 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Diego Padres (4:10 EST).

After a small hiccup, Drew Pomeranz is back on track and I’m expecting him to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Pomeranz (6-7, 3.00 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits with one walk and seven K’s over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Nationals on Sunday. Pomeranz has now given up three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts this year and note that he’s posted a very respectable 3.12 ERA in all road contests to date.

Brandon Finnegan (3-5, 3.81) comes in off a poor outing vs. the Astros on Sunday, allowing four runs off five hits and three walks over five innings in the setback. Finnegan has been pretty ordinary in this spot all season, going 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.28 ERA at home and just 1-2 with a 4.41 ERA in all day games.

Last night the Friars tied a season-high with four home runs, including two by Melvin Upton Jr. in the 13-4 victory. San Diego hasn’t lost a series to Cincinnati since 2012 and is 14-6 against it since then. 

I think these strong trends continue this afternoon, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Domiantor is on the Toronto Blue Jays (2:10 EST). 

I think veteran RA Dickey’s 4-8, 4.08 ERA record is not entirely indicative of how he’s performed this year. 

Toronto is one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the last two seasons, but the knuckle-baller has been the victim of poor run support on many occassions already. 

Most recently Dickey gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings in 4-2 loss to the Orioles on Saturday. Dickey would go on to induce 13 swinging strikes and would post his third quality start in his last four appearances. 

While Dickey is 0-5 with a poor 5.36 ERA at home, he’s 4-3 with a very respectable 2.98 ERA on the road. 

The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (1-2, 4.29), who comes in off a decent outing vs. the Red Sox on Monday, holding them to one run off four hits over 6.2 innings. Previous to that though Gonzalez had given up seven runs over just 3.1 innings in his last start.

Chicago won the opener the yesterday, but everything points to this hungry Jays team, which has lost four of its last five and six straight to the White Sox, bouncing back in what is a favorable pitching mismath. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Dallas Keuchel (3-9, 5.32 ERA) won the Cy Young Award last season. Keuchel looks like a shell of his former self this year though and has been particularly ineffective in this spot all season, going 2-6 with a 5.91 ERA on the road and 2-5 with a 5.43 ERA in all night games. The home side counters with Edinson Volquez (7-6, 4.22) who comes in off a win vs. the Tigers on Saturday, despite not being at his best, allowing five runs off eight hits while striking out six over seven innings. Volquez though would be given an early lead and his strategy changed, going after the strike zone, which allowed Detroit to plate some meaningless runs with the game out of reach. Volquez has been very solid in this spot all year, 7-5 with a respectable 3.81 ERA in all night contests and 5-2 with a tiny 2.61 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I think Volquez and the home side take advantage of Keuchel’s road woes and all things considered, I definitely feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:35 EST).

Here’s another big pitching mismatch. The visitors turn to Steven Matz (7-3, 2.74 ERA) who went six innings vs. the Braves on Satruday, allowing two runs and four hits with seven K’s in the no-decision. Matz looks to now improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.35 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Aaron Blair (0-4, 7.19) who comes in off a no-decision vs. the Mets, giving up three runs off five hits over six innings opposite Matz. I’m not reading too much into one decent start for Blair though, he’s been a disaster for the most part this season and it was just the second time this year that he’s even made it through six innings of work. Note that Blair owns an atrocious 7.19 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 27:26 K:BB ratio through his first ten starts of his career. Home field or on the road, it hasn’t mattered for Blair, he’s stunk wherever he’s thrown. I think Matz and the Mets take full advantage and find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

A couple of competent starters go head-to-head in this matchup, but I think the value is on the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Danny Salazar (8-3, 2.23 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over 6.2 innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Saturday.  The home side counters with Jordan Zimmermann (9-3, 3.24) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out five over eight innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. Kansas City on Sunday. The home side will surely be the more motivated here after Cleveland took a pair of three-game series earlier this season: “I guarantee if you ask the players," Tigers’ bench boss Brad Ausmus said last night, "they will answer they are aware we haven't beaten Cleveland this year." This screams “letdown” for the Tribe, they enter on a six game win skein and won all 11 home games in June, the first time they’ve gone undefeated at home in a single month in team history. All things considered I think we’re getting a great price on Detroit in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

After missing a year because of hip surgery, Tim Lincecum returned last week to make his first start for his new team and the veteran wouldn’t disappoint, giving up one run over six innings in a victory over these very Athletics. Now Lincecum gets another crack at the A’s anemic offense which averages just 3.91 runs per game, the only team in the AL under 4 per contest (note that Oakland also ranks dead last in the AL in runs, RBI, on-base percentage and OPS). The struggling visitors counter with Kendall Graveman, who hasn’t won since May 30th, but who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off three hits to the Angels over seven innings in the 3-2 no-decision last week. Graveman will have to keep his eyes on Angels’ slugger Mike Trout, who continues to excel and whose 134 consecutive games started is the longest active streak in the league. Graveman’s 7.03 road ERA leaves everything to be desired and combined with his team’s issues at the plate, Lincecum and the Angels are absolutely worth the price of admission in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40 EST).

Arizona looks to kick off this four game series with a win by sending its ace Zack Greinke to the hill. Greinke is 8-1 with a very respectable 2.39 ERA over his last nine starts. Clearly Greinke has turned the corner after a frustrating start to the 2016 campaign and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road, going 5-0 with a sparkling 1.47 ERA. And that’s bad news for a Rockies team which returns home after losing five of six in Miami and New York. Colorado has to be feeling especially deflated after yesterday’s 9-8 loss in the Bronx, going on to lose by one off a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Conversely, the Diamondbacks come to town with wins in five of their last six. The home side counters with Eddie Butler, who will try to fill the void left by ace Tyler Chatwood, who is out with injury. Butler has a poor 5.97 ERA as a starting pitcher this season and that ERA raises to an unsightly 9.37 in front of the home town crowd. Greinke is well worth the price of admission in this matchup, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The third 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I think Kyle Gibson and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The lowly Phillies send Adam Morgan (1-6, 6.49 ERA) to the hill, he most recently got rocked for seven runs off ten hits, including three homers, over just four innings in his team’s eventual 10-2 loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. It was Morgan’s fifth straight loss and he’s now given up at least one homer in five straight appearances. Note that Morgan is a poor 1-3 with a 5.57 ERA in all night contests thus far. The home side counters with Gibson (0-5, 6.06) who looks to finally get off the schneid against this favorable opponent, most recently he’d hold New York to just three runs off six hits over six innings, while also strking out four. Gibson actually left the game with two on and one out in the seventh, but his bullpen would promptly give up a three-run homer, sidling him with the inherited runners. Note that Gibson owns a respectable 4.01 ERA at home. These are two hurlers that are desperate for a win. Recent performance though is often the best indicator we have in trying to properly judge starting pitching and in this case, Gibson now seems poised to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). 

I had a play on the Tigers yesterday and they’d prevail 4-2. I think the home side will also find a way to get the job done this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (6-5, 4.18 ERA) who earned a victory Friday despite getting rocked for four runs over seven innings in his team’s eventual 8-4 win over the Red Sox. Iwakuma’s strikeouts are down over his last five starts, just 23 in 35 innings and his 1.39 HR/9 is the worst of his career. Note that Iwakuma owns a pedestrian 4.20 ERA in all night contests this season. The home side counters with rookie Michael Furmer (7-2, 2.43) who comes in off a loss despite allowing just one run off five hits and four walks while striking out five vs. the Royals on Friday. Fulmer’s ERA and 8.7 K/9 ratio are amongst the best in the American League and combined with his 95 MPH fastball, it’s easy to understand why so many are talking about him (note that Fulmer is 2-0 with a minuscule 0.69 ERA at home). I think Fulmer should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup, the value is simply too good to turn down, play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The first 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (7:05 EST).

The Giants clobbered the Pirates 15-4 yesterday and I think they carry that momentum over into what I feel to be another very favorable pitching matchup. San Francisco turns to Jeff Samardzija (8-4, 3.14 ERA) who tossed a complete game vs. the Rays on Friday, allowing just one run off four hits while also striking out four. For the most part Samardzija has been as solid as the Giants could possibly hope for and note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all season, going 5-3 with a very respectable 3.18 ERA on the road and an even better 7-2, 2.31 ERA record in all night contests. The home side counters with the volatile Francisco Liriano (4-7, 5.03) who was shelled for four earned runs off six hits to go along with five walks over five innings in a 6-0 setback to the Cubs on Friday. The five free passes matched a season high and he’d also hit two batters. Not surprisingly, this was Liriano’s fourth straight loss and his WHIP now sits at an ugly 1.62. I think Samardzija continues his solid season with another strong outing and expect Liriano to get chased early, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Miami Marlins (12:10 EST). 

Rookie John Gant (1-1, 4.37 ERA) will make a spot start for Wisler this afternoon. Gant most recently allowed one run off two hits and two walks while striking out five over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday. Gant was originally slated to start tomorrow, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all day games this year. The home side counters with Adam Conley (3-4, 3.94) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision vs. Colorado on Friday, giving up a single run off one hit with five walks and five K’s over six innings. Miami will be out to avenge yesterday’s 3-2, 10-inning loss. In fact, the Marlins have lost five of six to the Braves this year. After winning five straight, I think Atlanta finally has a predictable letdown today. I jumped on this one early yesterday afternoon and got -150 and that line has since come up, but regardless, I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon in what is a clear pitching mismatch. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland Athletics (10:05 EST).

It’s payback time for the home side after the Brewers swept a two-game series vs. the A’s June 7th-8th in Milwuakee. The home side turns to Sonny Gray, who is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and .257 opponent batting average over his past three starts since returning from the DL. The visitors send the volatile Jimmy Nelson to counter, he’s 0-3 with a deplorable 9.69 ERA over his past three starts, getting shelled for 32 hits in 13 innings of work. Most recently Nelson was blasted for eight runs off eight hits over just 3 2/3’s innings in a 10-1 loss to the Giants. Both teams are struggling at the plate, but clearly these starting pitchers are moving in opposite directions. I’m expecting Gray to continue his progression back to prominence and believe Nelson will once again struggle vs. the revenge minded Athletics. All things considered, this is indeed a very fair price. Play on Oakland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

Chicago looks to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 opener. The Cards trail by 11 1/2 games in the division though and these two heavy-weights still have 12 head-to-head games over the balance of the season. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (5-4, 3.93 ERA), who is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last six starts, but who owns a poor 6.02 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.26) who went seven frames in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Nationals on Wednesday, allowing one run off five hits. Hammel continues to excel, he’s allowed no more than three earned runs in all but one of his starts this year and has been particularly dominant at home this season, going a perfect 3-0 with a very respectable 2.03 ERA (and note that Hammel has been even better in all “night” games this year, going 4-1 with a tiny 2.00 ERA). I think Hammel’s home dominance continues this evening, while Wainwright’s road issues come back to haunt him again. All things considered, this is indeed a very fair price in my opinion, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). 

The Tigers prevailed 8-7 in a wild slugfest in this series opener yesterday and I think the home side will carry that winning momemtum over into this one. Seattle hands the ball to James Paxton (1-2, 2.86 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings in a victory over the Rays on Thursday. It was Paxton’s third start of the seaon and so far he’s looked pretty decent, but he’s struggled on the road, going just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.91 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (7-5, 3.87 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with one walk and five K’s over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Yanks on Saturday. It was a great start, despite the fact the he’d fail to complete the seventh inning for the first time since May 3rd. It was also the fourth straight outing that he’s allowed five hits or less. The veteran owns a 94:24 K:BB ratio and he’s on pace to challenge his 250 K’s that he’d amass in 2011 when he won the MVP.  Verlander gets the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side once again tonight. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). 

I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (3-4, 5.00 ERA) who was shelled for four runs through five innings, extremely fortunate to pick up his second win of the season vs. the Twins on Tuesday. So far Chacin has managed to strike out more than four batters in just four of his 12 outings this year. Chacin in fact has not pitched more than 5.1 innings in any of his last three starts and has given up 12 runs in the span. Note that Chacin has been particularly horrible in this spot as well all season, going 1-3 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Doug Fister (7-3, 3.26) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk with six K’s over 7.1 innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Fister was very effecient, needing just 87 pitches to get into the eighth frame and has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling this evening as he’s already 2-1 with a respectable 3.82 ERA at home. This one has the makings of a lop-sided rout and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price on the home side in this particular matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (1:35 EST).

After a decent start to the 2016 campaign, the Phillies have predictably struggled ever since, they enter this contest with zero momentum whatsoever, losing nine of their last ten and failing to score five runs or more eight times. Philadelphia managed just four hits in yesterday’s 4-1 loss to Arizona, its 22nd setback in its last 28 games. It won’t get any easier on the home side in turning to rookie Zach Eflin on the mound today, he made his major league debut earlier in the week and was promptly rocked for nine runs off nine hits in an 11-3 setback to Toronto on Tuesday. Archie Bradley (2-3, 5.66 ERA) gets a big chance to redeem himself after a couple of back-to-back duds, most recently allowing five runs off four hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to LA on Tuesday. Two home runs would spell disaster for Bradley, but clearly the Phillies are not the Dodgers, so he’ll look to take advantage this afternoon. Also note that this is a spot in which Bradley has done decently in this season, posting a respectable 3.79 ERA in all “day” games. Bradley gets the nod on the bump. Arizona also gets the big nod at the plate in this favorable matchup. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 32 Club Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

The Tigers won the opener of this series on Thursday, but the victory came with a loss as slugger JD Martinez would fracture his elbow on the Kauffman Stadium Wall in the second inning. Martinez’s absence was noticeable in yesterday’s 10-3 Royals win (I had Kansas City in that one). Edinson Volquez (2-4, 5.24 ERA) looks to keep the momentum rolling, he’s coming off a gem on Monday, scattering two hits over seven scoreless innings while also striking out three in a victory over the Tribe. Volquez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this year, but he’s dominated in this spot all season, going 4-2 with a tiny 2.06 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. The visitors counter with Matt Boyd (0-1, 4.91) who gave up six runs over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox on Monday. Boyd has 11 K’s this month and eight walks and has struggled mightily in this position already this year, going 0-0 with a balllooned 8.68 ERA on the road. I’m banking on the home side to once again take advantage of this wounded Tigers team and all things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (4:10 EST). 

Tyler Chatwood (8-4, 2.89 ERA) has been a beast on the road this season and I’m expecting that trend to continue this afternoon. Chatwood is 5-0 with a minuscule 0.65 ERA away from Coors Field thus far. So far the right-hander has yet to allow more than one earned run in any of his six road starts this year and has also yet to allow a home run away from friendly confines. The home side counters with southpaw Wei-Yin Chen (4-2, 4.68) whose current ERA would be a career-worst. Chen has struggled with control this year, his 9.4 hits per nine innings is evidence to that and his 64 K’s in 77 innings leaves everything to be desired. Unfortunately for Chen, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 1-1 with a ballooned 5.01 ERA there. I love the visitors to bounce back today after yesterday’s series opening 5-1 setback and expect Chatwood to continue his road dominance. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 EST).

Suarez goes for the visitors and he spent years toiling in the minor leagues for a reason. He's made one road start and that resulted in a loss at Atlanta and a 5.40 ERA. The home side counters with Matt Moore (3-4, 5.05) who after a slow start to the season, has finally started to turn things around, most recently he tossed seven scoreless in a victory over the Astros on Sunday, walking one and striking out ten. Note that Moore has been solid in this spot all season as well, going 3-0 with a respectable 3.60 ERA in all “day” games. After yesterday’s 5-1 series opening loss, the home side bounces back with what I believe to be the superior starter backing it this afternoon. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST). 

This is a great spot wager in my opinion. The Tigers will be without the services of slugger JD Martinez tonight, who started 64 of the first 66 games this year. Martinez fractured his elbow running into the wall in right-field in the second inning yesterday, meaning that Steven Moya will be called up to fill his shoes. It won’t be easy to replace Marintez’s offensive production, over his previous 13 game he had nine multi-hit efforts, hit .451 with nine doubles, one home run, 10 RBI and seven scored runs. The Royals look to bounce back off yesterday’s 10-4 defeat and take advantage. Michael Fulmer gets the call for the visitors, he’s given up just one earned run over 34 1/3’s innings in winning his previous five starts, but he goes against an equally as hot counterpart in Yordano Ventura. Ventura struck out a season-high ten in a victory over the White Wox and will be especially motivated today as this could be his last start before a possible suspension from a June 7th incident at Baltimore which led to a dugout clearing brawl. I like Kansas City to bounce back here and look for a focused Ventura to get the better of the over-achieving Fulmer. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:10 EST).

These two veteran starters are moving in opposite directions. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (4-4, 2.28 ERA) who scattered five hits over seven innings in a 4-0 win over the Tigers on Friday, walking two and striking out four. Sabathia has now thrown 12 innings of shutout ball over his last two starts and has seven quality outings to his name this season. Note that the southpaw has been particularly effective in this spot all year, going 3-2 with a 2.25 ERA on the road and 3-2 with a 2.21 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (0-4, 6.49) who returned from the DL on Saturday to get shelled for five runs off seven hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in an eventual 15-4 setback to the Red Sox. Gibson’s control is a major issue, he would manage to throw only 56 of his 94 pitches for strikes and induced only six swinging strikes overall. In his previous start before the injury, Gibson was blasted for seven earned runs over three innings vs. the Nationals on April 22nd. Note that he’s 0-2 with a deplorable 12.38 ERA in all night games this year as well. Sabathia has earned my trust, I think he offers great value in this matchup. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (12:10 EST).

Atlanta prevailed 9-8 in yesterday’s series opener, but I like the visitors to bounce back with what I feel to be the superior starter backing them this afternoon. Dan Straily (4-2, 3.15 ERA) gave up one run off five hits while stirking out five and walking three over seven innings in a 2-1 victory over the A’s on Saturday. Straily has now given up two or fewer runs while pitching seven innings in each of his last two starts and note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all season, going a perfect 4-0 with a very respectable 2.88 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with the volatile Matt Wisler (2-7, 4.36) who gave up five runs off seven hits over four innings in an 8-2 setback to the Cubs on Saturday. Wisler would allow three dingers and has been shelled for 13 runs and six homers over his last eight innings of work.  Note that Wisler has been horrible in this spot as well all season, going 0-5 with a 4.78 ERA at home and an even worse 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA in all day games. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on Straily in this matchup, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (10:05 EST). 

Sonny Gray is coming off a decent outing, but for the most part he has been a shell of his former self this year. Derek Holland’s record is not entirely indicative of how the southpaw has performed to this point. All things considered I think we’re getting great value on the underdog Rangers in this one. Gray (3-6, 5.34 ERA) gave up two earned runs and a walk with five hits over 7.2 innings in a 2-1 loss to Cincinnati on Friday. It was likely his best start of the year, needing just 92 pitches to get through almost eight innings. Gray though has been consistently inconsistent this season and is just 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA at home and owns an even worse 1-3, 5.81 ERA record in all “night” contests. Holland (5-5, 4.87) went seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Sunday, allowing just two runs off three hits while walking two and striking out six. Holland has now limited opponents to three runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts this year and is on pace to challenge his career-high 16 victories in a season. I think the oddsmakers are giving Gray too much respect in this spot, play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout WInner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

The Cards look to bounce back after the Astros took the opener of this interleague series 5-2 yesterday. The home side sends “ace” Adam Wainwright (5-4, 2.51 ERA) to the hill, he’s 13-1 with a 1.57 ERA vs. the Astros lifetime and has won his last seven vs. Houston dating back to 2009. After a slow start to the season, Wainwright has started to resemble his dominant form, most recently he allowed two runs off a season-low two hits and a walk to go along with a season high nine K’s over six innings in a victory over the Reds on Thursday. The visitors counter with the volatile Collin McHugh (5-5, 5.22) who continues his up-and-down season, he’s coming off his shortest outing thus far, going just 3 2/3’s while allowing four runs in a 5-3 setback at Texas on Thursday. McHugh is just 2-3 with a 5.81 ERA on the road, which is obviously music to the Cardinals’ ears as they remain one of the best offensive clubs in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game, batting .267 and already posting 87 home runs, putting them on pace for 220 by season’s close. All things considered, this is a great price, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* National League SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the San Diego Padres.

Drew Pomeranz (5-6, 2.44 ERA) has come into his own this season. Left-handed hitters are batting only .189 vs. the southpaw this year. Pomeranz ranks among the NL leaders in ERA (8th), ERA in all “night” contests (second at 1.34), in strikeouts per nine innings (sixth overall at 10.7 per game) and in opponents’ batting average (third, .184). Pomeranz is the entire reason behind this “GAME OF THE MONTH” selection. You could easily make an argument that Pomeranz has been the hottest pitcher in the league over the last month, as he’s allowed no earned runs in five of his first 12 starts and more than three only once. The visitors counter with Tom Koehler (4-6, 4.36) who comes in off his third quality start in a row, giving up two runs off four hits and a walk over six innings in a 10-3 rout over the Twins on Thursday. I actually had Koehler and the Marlins in that one. It was a favorable matchup for Koehler vs. the anemic Minnesota offense, but note that despite the recent uptick in his performance of late, this is in fact a spot in which Koehler has struggled in this year, going just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA on the road. After yesterday’s series opening setback, I expect Pomeranz and the Padres to bounce back and take advantage of this favorable matchup.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). 

While neither pitcher instils much confidence, I think Jhoulys Chacin offers excellent value in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ervin Santana (1-6, 4.77 ERA) who comes in off his fourth straight loss, giving up five runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Fish on Thursday. Santana has now been shelled for five or more runs in three of his last four outings and is a horrible 0-3 with a ballooned 5.93 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters wich Chacin (2-4, 4.83) who gave up five runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out three in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. Chacin has been decent in this spot, going 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA in all night games. Both teams are struggling at the plate, but the Angels have the advantage today and all things considered I think we’re getting a great price on the home side. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (8:40 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and while neither of these hurlers inspires much confidence, I think flame-throwing Nathan Eovaldi offers pretty good value in this spot and look for him to do just enough to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Eovaldi (6-2, 4.42 ERA) has been a bit over the map with his consistency this season, after a stretch between late April and Late May where he went 5-0, he comes into this one off a couple of shaky outings, most recently giving up five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Angels on Wednesday. Eovaldi has been decent on the road this year though, going 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA. The home side counters with Jorge De La Rosa (2-4, 8.81) who returns to the rotation after going four innings of perfect ball vs. the anemic Pirates on Thursday, striking out five. It was De La Rosa’s best performance of the season, but I’m not going to read too much into that. De La Rosa’s best days are clearly behind him and note that he’s a deplorable 0-4 with a 13.26 ERA in all “night” games this year. New York’s recent surge at the plate continues in the thin air of Colorado, lay the price on the visitors in this one.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST).

Brandon Finnegan (2-4, 3.77 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently gave up two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the Cardinals on Thursday. Finnegan has looked better of late with three quality starts in his last four outings after failing to complete six frames in five of his first nine starts, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a 3.88 ERA in all “night” games this year. The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (2-6, 2,85) who went eight innings vs. the Friars on Wednesday, striking out eight and walking just two off five hits on his way to the 4-2 victory. Teheran is just 1-5 in night games, despite posting a tiny 2.67 ERA. I’m going to call these struggling line-ups a “wash,” but give the veteran Teheran the big nod in this matchup and all things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on Atlanta in this one.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST).

After a decent start to the year, Gio Gonzalez has struggled of late. I think the more consistent John Lackey and the Cubs avenge yesterday’s important series opening loss. Lackey (7-2, 2.63) comes in off his second straight scoreless outing, going seven in an 8-1 victory over the Phillies on Wednesday, scattering three hits with no walks and eight K’s. Dating back to May 29th, Lackey has given up one run in his last 20.2 frames of work and has been great on the road this season, 3-1 with a 3.72 ERA. Gonzalez (3-5, 3.93) gave up three runs off five hits with two walks and ten K’s over seven innings in a setback to the White Sox on Thursday. Note though that it was the first double-digit K’s performance of the year for Gonzalez, who had been shelled for 18 runs over his prior three outings. Gonzalez is a poor 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.36 ERA at home this year. This is an important divisional series and everything points to the Cubs responding.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers.

Even though we haven’t made it to the half-way point, whenever these teams meet it’s an important series. San Francisco currently holds a four-game lead atop the NL West over second-place Los Angeles. The Dodgers took Friday’s opener 3-2, before San Francisco scored the 5-4 victory yesterday. Rookie phenom Julio Urias (0-1, 6.94 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. If ever Urias was going to break out and notch his first victory of the season, this is it. Urias has been matched up against some tough offenses right out of the gate, seeing the Cubs and Rockies, most recently holding Colorado to just one run off three hits with a walk and seven K’s over four innings in a no-decision on Tuesday. His counterpart today is the struggling Jake Peavy (2-6, 6.41) who was shelled for four runs off five hits over five innings with two walks while striking out five in a loss to the Cards on Sunday. Peavy is posting the worst numbers of his career and has been particularly susceptible in this spot already this season, going just 1-2 with a 5.64 ERA at home and an even worse 2-5 with a 6.54 ERA in all “night” games. I like Urias to finally get off the schneid tonight and look for him to outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (4:10 EST). 

The Rangers hand the ball to their veteran ace Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.32 ERA) who gave up just two runs with four K’s and four walks over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. Houston on Tuesday. It was Hamels fourth quality start in his last five outings and he has been particularly sharp in this spot all season, going 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA in all “day” games and an even better 3-0 with a tiny 2.08 ERA on the road. Wade Miley (6-2, 5.27) also comes in off a gem vs. the Tribe on Tuesday, going seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits with two walks and three K’s in the victory. I’ll caution reading too much into the one decent outing though, as he’d allowed 14 runs in just 8.2 innings over his previous two starts. Note that Miley owns a poor 6.05 ERA in all day games. I think the more consistent Miley outduels his counterpart and that the Rangers find a way to win the finale in the Pacific Northwest.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (2:10 EST).

Rick Porcello (7-2, 4.04 ERA) broke a string of four straight sub-par efforts to post a quality outing vs. the Giants on Tuesday, going six innings, giving up three runs off five hits with a walk and six K’s. The veteran now sports a fantastic 68:15 K:BB ratio this year and has done particularly well in this spot for bettors, going 5-2 with a solid 3.77 ERA in all “night” games to date. The home side counters with Pat Dean (1-2, 4.75) who gave up four runs off seven hits and walk in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Marlins on Tuesday. Dean was all over the map with his control and managed to get just four swinging strikes in 90 pitches (note that so far this year Dean has induced swinging strikes on just 6.3 percent of his pitches). Dean has been poor at home this year as well, 0-0 with a 5.54 ERA. Boston has been tearing the cover off the ball, Porcello will take advantage. Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (2:05 EST). 

The visitors turn to Michael Furmer (6-1, 2.83 ERA) who comes in off a dominating outing vs. the Jays on Monday, allowing no runs off two scattered hits with three walks and five K’s. On May 21st Fulmer would give up a run in the sixth inning to the Rays and he hasn’t allowed another since, posting 27 K’s to just seven walks in 28.1 innings over four starts. Fulmer has been particularly dominant in this spot all season, going 2-0 with a tiny 2.37 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with the volatile Michael Pineda (3-6, 6.14) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up three runs off four hits with two walks over seven innings in a victory over the anemic Angels on Tuesday. Pineda has shown a bit of promise of late, but for the most part he’s been a huge disappointment this season, going just 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA at home and an even worse 1-2, 9.82 ERA in all “day” games. For arguments sake, I’m going to call these line-ups a “wash,” but will give Fulmer the big nod on the bump, he’s been the more consistent of the two and I think he offers great value in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (10:05 EST). 

Matt Shoemaker was sent to the minors after a dreadful April and since returning he’s set a club record by striking out 39 batters without a single walk. Unfortunately for Shoemaker, his team has struggled at the plate, losing five in a row. The Tribe on the other hand has won eight of their last ten and own first place in the AL Central since June 4th. Trevor Bauer has been a big part of Cleveland’s turnaround, he’s won two straight in giving up four runs off nine hits with 16 K’s and four walks in 14 2/3’s innings. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the Indians’ Mike Napoli who has hit .319 vs. his former team with 18 home runs and 38 RBI’s in 56 games. For arguments sake, I’ll call the starters a “wash,” but I’m going to give Cleveland the big nod at the plate and look for it continue its hot streak. 

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner on the New York Yankees (7:15 EST). 

The Yanks are surging, looking for a sixth straight victory. I think the home side continues to roll in what I feel to be an extremely favorable pitching mismatch. New York has plated 33 runs during its win streak and is over .500 (31-30) for the first time since early April. Mashairo Tanaka has struggled against the Tigers in the past, but he comes into this contest on top form, ranking third in the AL with a tiny 1.01 WHIP, seventh in ERA and fourth in walks per nine innings ratio. Most recently Tanaka held the Angels to two runs off six hits in an unfortunate no-decision on Monday. After equaling a season-high with five straight victories, the Tigers have been held to two runs in their last 18 innings. The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander who has historically struggled in the new Yankee Stadium, going 0-4 with a pedestrian 4.84 ERA in seven matchups. Verlander has been decent of late, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a poor 5.01 ERA on the road. I like Tanaka in this matchup and am also giving a big nod to the red hot Yanks at the plate. All things considered, this is a great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cincinnati Reds (4:10 EST). 

The A’s have recalled Daniel Mengden from Triple-A Nashville to make his major league debut. Mengden was impressive in the minors, posting a tiny 1.19 ERA in 11 starts. The home side turns to Dan Straily (3-2, 3.34) who would allow two runs off two hits over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Nationals on Saturday. Straily has steadily improved as the season has progressed and has in fact been “lights out” in this spot all year, going 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA at home and is also 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA in all “day” games. I think Mengden is getting too much respect from the bookmakers, the kid has yet to throw a single pitch in the big leagues, while Straily seems poised to produce the best campaign of his career. All things considered, I think this is a great price, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). 

Pittsburgh looks to continue its success vs. St. Louis, it would open the season with a series sweep at PNC Park and then took two of three last month in St. Louis. The Pirates have to be liking their chances with ace Gerrit Cole (5-4, 2.85 ERA) on the hill, he’s 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 11 starts vs. the Cardinals. The visitors counter with the struggling Michael Wacha (2-6, 5.16) who hasn’t won a game since mid April in San Diego and is coming off another poor outing, getting shelled for four runs over five innings vs. the Giants on Saturday. Cole is the clear favorite here, he owns a very respectable 3.38 ERA at home and an even better 3.30 ERA in all night games. Conversely, this is a spot that Wacha has struggled in, going 1-4 with a ballooned 6.38 ERA in all night contests. Lay the price in this mismatch.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). 

The Yanks come in off a four-game sweep of the Angels and I think the Evil Empire keeps the momentum rolling in this favorable pitching mismatch. Keep your eyes on the Yankees’ Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury, who have scored in same game in 13 times this season. The New York bats have come alive, it scored 29 runs and batted .343 vs. the Angels, with Gardner and Ellsbury combining to score 12 while batting .560. The home side sends CC Sabathia (3-3, 2.58 ERA) to the hill, he’s 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 starts against Detroit since joining the Yanks in 2009. Sabathia has quietly been turning the corner, over the last ten months he’s 5-6 with a very respectable 2.72 ERA, most recently scattering two hits and going five scoreless in a 3-1 loss to the Orioles on Sunday. Detroit’s five-game win streak came to an end in Wednesday’s 7-2 setback to the Jays. The visitors counter with the struggling Mike Pelfrey, who is a poor 2-4 with a 4.74 ERA in seven career starts vs. New York (note that when he opposed Sabathia on April 9th in Detroit he was shelled for six runs off seven hits over 3 2/3’s innings). Everything considered, this is indeed a very fair price on the home side, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (8:10 EST). 

The Nationals are rolling in interleague play and I expect them to close the deal this evening and complete the three-game sweep of the White Sox. The Nats have taken the first two games by a 21-9 margin and have plated 31 runs over their last three to rank second in the NL with a run differential of plus-66. Chicago comes in with zero momentum, it’s lost five straight and 20 of the past 26 games and now faces Gio Gonzaelz (3-4, 3.93 ERA) who has already won two interleague starts this season, allowing just two earned runs over 12 innings with a tiny 1.50 ERA, walking three and striking out nine in the process. The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (0-1, 3.93), who is called into action with the injury to Carlos Rodon. Gonzalez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and owns a pedestrian 4.67 ERA in all “night” games this year. I like Gio in this spot, he’s eager to return to his early season form and he certainly will feel comfortable in this interleague scenario. Miguel on the other hand is being thrown to the wolves and I think his inconsistency comes back to haunt him here vs. the hard-hitting Nationals. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (8:10 EST). 

Tom Koehler (3-6, 4.50 ERA) has been getting better as the season has progressed, most recently he allowed three earned runs and a walk off six hits over six innings in a 6-2 loss to the Mets on Friday, also striking out six in the process. It was Koehler’s fourth quality start in his last six trips to the mound and it was the first time in six outings that he’d given up a home run. Koehler has been great in all “night” games thus far with a respectable 3.67 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Ervin Santana (1-5, 4.50) who served up three home runs on his way to giving up five runs overall off six hits over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. He struck out four, but walked three. Santana has regressed as the season has worn on, he’s now given up a deplorable 14 runs over his last 16.2 innings of work (giving up five dingers in that stretch as well). Unfortunately for Santana, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, he’s a poor 0-3 with a 5.46 ERA in Minnesota thus far. Koehler gets the big nod on the bump tonight and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Fish. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (2:05 EST). 

Houston snapped its eight game losing streak in this series in yesterday’s 3-1 victory, but I’m expecting the home side to respond in the finale this afternoon. And despite the loss snapping a five-game win skein, Texas is still leading the AL West and is tied for the best record in club history after 59 games (36-23). The Rangers are in fact 11-3 in their last 14 overall. The home side turns to Martin Perez (4-4, 3.24 ERA) who has posted three consecutive quality starts and in five of his last six outings. Perez has been “lights out” vs. the Astros over his career, going 4-2 with a tiny 1.71 ERA in six matchups. The visitors counter with Colin McHugh (5-4, 4.97) who is 4-0 vs. the Rangers, but who comes in with little momentum, going just 2-2 with a ballooned 5.27 ERA on the road thus far. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Texas slugger Jurickson Profar, who is hitting .380 during an 11-game hit streak. McHugh is getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion, Perez has been much more consistent and I think he’ll prove to be the difference today. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST).

Jameson Taillon will make his major league debut tonight and clearly the kid has a lot of potential. He’s being thrown to the wolves though in having to face the potent Mets’ lineup that’s looking to break out of a slump and throwing opposite the red hot Noah Syndergaard. Taillon was drafted in 2010, but Tommy John and hernia surgery delayed his career. Taillon looked sharp in Triple-A, going 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA. Syndergaard (6-2, 1.91) has been one of MLB’s best to this point, most recently he gave up two runs and six hits over seven innings in a 6-1 win over the Marlins on Friday. The big right-hander has struck out eight or more in seven of his 11 starts and is 4-1 with a tiny 1.85 ERA on the road this year. For this selection I’m looking only at the starting pitchers and think the value is simply to good to turn down in this matchup. Syndergaard is throwing at an All Star level, while the book is still clearly out on Taillon. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST). 

The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Blair (0-4, 7.55 ERA) who went four innings vs. the Giants on Thursday, allowing six runs off five hits with four walks in the setback. Blair has registered just a single quality outing in his first seven big league starts and owns a horrible 1.81 WHIP to go along with his atrocious 7.55 ERA. Note that the rookie has been particularly horrible on the road thus far, going 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA. The home side counters with Colin Rea (3-2, 4.85) who gave up five earned runs off six hits with one walk while stirking out three over 5.1 innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners on Thursday. Rea had a 12-2 lead after five innings, but the bullpen exploded in the eventual setback. Rea will look to get back to his winning ways an improve upon his pedestrian 2-1, 4.72 ERA record at home. While I certainly don’t have much faith in Rea, he’s light years ahead of his counterpart. I’m banking on the home side to build off last night’s victory, making this a price that I have no issues at all with paying. Play on San Diego.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). 

Zach Davies got off to a horrible start to the 2016 campaign, but has since turned the corner, going 3-0 with a highly respectable 2.97 ERA in his last six outings, posting a career-high with nine K’s in his last start. The Brewers’ lineup gets an expected boost today with the return of slugger Ryan Braun who had been out with a neck issue. The visitors counter with Sean Manaea (2-3, 6.16) who for the most part has struggled mightily in his rookie season. Manaea is primed for a letdown after notching his second win, holding the light-hitting Twins to a single run over six innings. The A’s are also struggling at the plate after getting swept by the Astros over the weekend. I’m giving Davies the big nod on the bump in this matchup and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. All things considered, this is a very fair price, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). 

Houston has lost 11 straight in Arlington dating back to 2015 and has dropped all seven vs. the Rangers this season, most recently falling 6-5 on Monday. Sending the volatile Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 5.50 ERA) to the hill isn’t going to help matters either, he’s given up 13 runs on 22 hits over two matchups with Texas already this season. The home side counters with Cole Hamels (5-1, 3.39), who is 4-0 with a very respectable 2.75 ERA vs. the AL West already this season. Coles has faced the Astros twice this year and gone 2-0, holding them to just three runs total. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the Rangers’ second baseman Jurickson Profar, who was called up to replace Rougned Odor, who continues to serve suspension for punching Jose Bautista in the face last month. Profar has hit safely in ten games, including posting multiple hits in five. Both teams are red hot, but clearly Hamels comes in on top form and all things considered, this is indeed a great price. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST). 

Atlanta hasn’t won a game in San Diego since 2012 and I don’t expect that trend to change tonight. The visitors send Williams Perez (2-1, 3.86 ERA) to the hill, he most recently allowed four runs off five hits over 5 2/3’s innings in a fortunate 5-4 home victory over the Giants on Wednesday. When Perez faced San Diego last year, he allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks in six innings in the 5-3 defeat on August 17th. Slugger Matt Kemp is 1 for 2 off him, with a home run. The home side counters with Christian Friedrich (2-1, 2.53) who gave up three earned runs over five innings in a 14-6 rout over the Mariners on Wednesday. A date vs. the anemic Braves’ line-up is just what the doctor ordered for Friedrich, Atlanta did muster up some offense in yesterday’s 12-6 loss, but note that it had posted just two runs in its previous three games. Slugger Freddie Freeman is just 4 for 26 in his last eight games. I think the price is right here and expect Friedrich and the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Diego.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout WInner is on the New York Yankees.

The Angels pulled off a come-from-behind 5-4 victory over the Pirates yesterday, scoring four runs over the final three innings. Unfortunately for LA, a date in The Big Apple is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as it’s just 8-23 at the new Yankee Stadium all time, including the postseason. Note that the Angels have in fact dropped five in a row there and 14 of the last 18. That’s good news for the red hot Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.78), who comes in off his first loss of the year despite giving up just two runs over six frames in Toronto on Wednesday. Tanaka now has a minuscule 0.90 ERA over his last three starts. The visitors counter with the inconsistent Matt Shoemaker (3-6, 5.50) who also comes in off a loss despite throwing decently, giving up two runs over seven innings in a 3-0 setback to Detroit on Wednesday. Note though that Shoemaker gave up a season-high ten hits in that one. Shoemaker has looked better of late, but clearly if he’s had once weak point this season, it’s been his play on the road where he’s a poor 2-2 with a ballooned 5.49 ERA. All things considered, I feel we’re getting excellent value on Tanaka, who to this point of the season must be included in the early Cy Young candidate talk. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST). 

Despite a “strong” finish to May, I have no faith in Giants’ veteran Jake Peavy and look for Carlos Martinez and the home side to take full advantage of what I feel to be a very favorable matchup. Would it be too hard to imagine the Giants getting caught “looking ahead” to the comforts of friendly confines? This is the conclusion of a ten-game trip for San Francisco, setting this up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Peavy (2-5, 6.34 ERA) is coming off a 4-0 win over the Braves on Tuesday, but I’m not reading too much into that outing. Atlanta is the worst offensive club in the league and note that previous to that, Peavy had gone 0-4 over six outings. The Cardinals on the other hand will be hungry to build on yesterday’s victory which snapped a three-game home slide, Brandon Moss had three hits, including a homer to help his team rebound from the 5-1 loss in the series opener on Friday. Martinez (5-5, 3.69) would also struggle throughout most of May, only to close the month with a gem, striking out eight and walking one over eight innings in a 6-0 victory at Milwaukee. Martinez gets the slight nod on the bump in this matchup in my opinion and the Cards also have some strong situational and motivational factors working in their favor tonight as well. All things considered, this is indeed a fair price, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The third 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

Colorado is struggling, it’s won just twice in its last eight games. The Padres have started to turn things around and yesterday’s 4-0 win was their fifth in seven games vs. the Rockies this year. San Diego also scored 27 runs on 39 hits in its previous two games vs. the Mariners. And that’s bad news for Rockies’ starter Chad Bettis (4-4, 5.46) who has been blasted for 13 runs off 15 hits over his last 8 1/3’s innings of work spanning two starts. Most recently Bettis went just 3 2/3’s innings in Monday’s 11-8 setback to Cincinnati, getting shelled for eight hits and six runs. After returning from a two week stint on the DL, Andrew Cashner (2-5, 4.79) has posted back-to-back quality starts for the Friars. I’ll call the starters a “wash,” but clearly San Diego has turned things around at the plate and I believe that momentum gets carried over here. All things considered, this is a very fair price, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltiomre Orioles (7:15 EST). 

The Orioles have won three straight behind some timely starting pitching and some even better hitting and I think that momentum gets carried over into this game. Mark Trumbo had three hits and scored two runs in a come-from-behind 6-5 victory over New York in yesterday’s series opener. Trumbo is unstoppable right now with 17 home runs on the season, while batting .359 with four home runs, 11 RBI, four doubles and nine runs his last last ten games. That’s bad news for Yanks’ starter Ivan Nova, as Trumbo is 9 for 16 with two dingers lifetime vs. him. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Baltimore rookie Hyun Soo Kim, who is batting .400 over a nine-game stretch. On the other end of the spectrum is New York, which is hitting .194 during a 3-7 period. Nova (3-3, 3.98 ERA) has lost back-to-back starts, giving up eight runs off 15 hits over 12 2/3’s innings. And a date vs. the Orioles is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 1-2 with a horrendous 7.59 ERA over the last four matchups. The home side counters with Tyler Wilson (2-4, 3.83) who has pitched at least six frames in five straight starts, while allowing more than three earned runs just once in his last seven outings. I’ll be generous and call these starters a “wash,” but clearly the Orioles have a ton of momentum at the plate right now and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in their favor. All things considered, this is a very fair price, play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (10:40 EST).

Despite allowing Seattle to mount an epic comeback in yesterday’s 16-13 loss (I had the M’s in that one), the Padres have woken up at the plate. San Diego has lost nine of its last 11, but has won 14 of the last 18 of this series at home and I’m expecting that strong trend to continue tonight. The Friars hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (4-5, 2.48 ERA) who leads the team in wins and K’s (60). Pomeranz rolled with a 1.70 ERA through his first nine starts, but comes into this one off his worst outing of the campaign, giving up six runs off five hits over five innings in a 6-3 loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He did strike out nine though (also note that Pomeranz did settle down after allowing five runs in the second, not allowing a hit over the final 13 opponents he faced). The visitors counter with the struggling Chris Rusin (1-3, 4.75) who was shelled for six runs off 11 hits over five innings on Sunday. Rusin has been the very definition of a “gas can” of late, giving up 40 hits and 19 runs over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work spanning his last four starts behind a deplorable 8.14 ERA. I like San Diego to keep the “hit parade” rolling and for Pomeranz to outduel his struggling counterpart. All things considered, this is indeed a very fair price to pay in this situation, play on the Padres.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST). 

Keep your eyes on Nationals’ slugger Daniel Murphy, who is hitting a league-best .394 after the first two months of the season and who has nine home runs and 34 RBI thus far. The visitors send Gio Gonzalez to the hill, who after a blistering start to the 2016 campaign, has come back down to earth of late, most recently getting rocked for six runs off six hits in a 9-4 loss to the Cardinals on Saturday. Here’s a great opponent to get untracked against, the Reds’ offense has looked a bit better of late, but note that Gonzalez is 2-0 with a very respectable 2.52 ERA on the road to date. The home side counters with Brandon Finnegan (1-4, 4.14) who hasn’t won in eight starts and who owns a poor 5.40 ERA in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on Gonzalez and the hard-hitting Nationals in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). 

Jordan Zimmermann (7-2, 2.52 ERA) was a big off-season acquistion for the Tigers and he has already paid dividends. After an unreal start in which posted a tiny 0.55 ERA over his first five outings, Zimmermann came back down to Earth, but he enters this one off a solid performance, giving up two runs over six innings in a victory over Tampa Bay on May 22nd. Zimmermann had his last start skipped because of a groin issue, but the hard-throwing right-hander has been cleared to play, he’ll be looking to improve upon his 1.29 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox. Chicago had dropped seven in a row before winning Tuesday and then parlayed that into another 2-1 victory in 13 innings on Wednesday. The visitors counter with Carlos Rodon (2-4, 4.24) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this season, though he does enter off a decent outing in which he allowed one run over five innings vs. the Royals on Saturday. Rodon faced the Tigers as a rookie last year and was shelled for four runs off eight hits over five innings. For this selection I’m concentrating completely on the starting pitchers and all things considered, definitely feel that we’re getting great value on the home side in this one. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies will be eager to slow down the suddenly surging Brewers, who have won four-straight on the road and nine in a row in Philadelphia. They’ll also be looking to break a season-worst seven-game slide of their own. Jimmy Nelson (5-3, 2.88 ERA) gets the call for the visitors. He’s the leader of Milwaukee’s rotation, but note that he posted a pedestrian 4.63 ERA in two starts vs. the Phillies last year. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.63) who looks to recapture his early season form which saw him going 4-1 with a 1.44 ERA. Velasquez comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs over four innings in Sunday’s 7-2 road loss to the Cubs, but note that he’s been nearly unhittable at home this year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 0.74 ERA thus far. I’m banking on Velasquez bouncing back and continuing his strong play in front of the home town crowd, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The third 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Plays is on the Seattle Mariners (9:10 EST).

The Padres got trounced 16-4 in Seattle on Tuesday and then came out and responded with a 14-6 win at home yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think the light-hitting Friars make an immediate return to mediocrity and look for Wade Miley to outduel his young counterpart. Colin Rea (3-2, 4.47 ERA) had his last start skipped as the team looks to limit his innings this year. In his last outing he gave up three runs over five innings in a 9-5, 17-inning loss to the Dodgers on May 22nd. The M’s have dropped four of six but despite yesterday’s setback, they still had 14 hits and were unfortunate to go just 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position and stranding 11 overall. Miley (5-2, 4.95) has struggled after a great start to the season, but has posted a tiny 2.25 ERA in six career outings vs. San Diego, while not allowing a homer in the last five. I’m banking on Miley bouncing back and to continue his strong play vs. the Padres, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

Boston sends veteran Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.68 ERA) to the hill. Porcello has been a pleasant surprise for the Red Sox this season, most recently he gave up four runs off seven hits over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays in his team’s eventual 10-9 loss on Saturday. Porcello was in line for the win before his bullpen let him down. Porcello has had difficulties with the Orioles in the past, but he’ll look to take advantage of his favorable matchup and outlast his struggling counterpart as Ubaldo Jimenez (2-6, 6.36) has gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, most recently he was shelled for six runs off five hits with three walks over 1 2/3’s innings in an 11-4 loss to the Indians on Saturday. Jimenez’s 5.16 walks per nine innings is just one of four in baseball over 5.00. And that doesn’t bode well vs. the red hot Red Sox, who hit five home runs in yesterday’s 13-9 setback. Boston’s three-game win skein came to a close, but it’s averaging 7.2 runs per game and hitting .308 over its last five. I don’t have a ton of confidence in either of these starters, but clearly Porcello is performing at a much higher and more consistent level than the struggling Jimenez, who will likely be out of the rotation after this outing. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs.

The Cubs are leading the majors in runs (277) and on-base percentage (.354). They also have one of the best rotations in the league and Kyle Hendricks has done his part. Hendricks (3-4, 2.93 ERA) is coming off a 4-1 win over the Phillies on Saturday, scattering five hits with seven K’s and on walks in his second career complete game. LA turns to top prospect, Julio Urias (0-0, 10.13) who gave up three runs off five hits over 2 2/3’s innings ina  6-5 loss at the Mets on Friday. The book is still out on Urias obviously and LA certainly hasn’t wasted any time in throwing the rookie to the wolves. I wasn’t overly impressed with Urias in his opener and I think he’ll struggle again today vs. the top offensive club in the majors. Hendricks is firing on all cylinders (has a 1.93 ERA at home, compared to a 4.37 on the road) and in my opinion, is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). 

Masahiro Tanaka (3-0, 2.89 ERA) has won two straight starts and he’ll be looking to help his team avoid a three-game series sweep in Toronto for the first time in 16 seasons this evening. Tanaka has given up one run over his last 14 innings of work, most recently scattering two hits with zero runs in his team’s 4-1 win at Tampa Bay on Friday. Tanaka has been especially sharp on the road thus far, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.34 ERA in five such instances. And a date vs. the Jays is just what the doctor ordered for Tanaka to keep the momentum rolling as he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts at Rogers Centre lifetime. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (4-1, 3.29), who most recently gave up three earned runs over 6 2/3’s innings in a no-decision vs. the Red Sox on Friday. Sanchez though has been better on the road that in Toronto, posting a pedestrian 4.88 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date. I think we’re getting great value on the better pitcher and expect New York to find a way to avoid the sweep.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates. (7:10 EST).

With Monday’s 10-0 win in the opener of this four game set, Pittsburgh is 9-1 while limiting the Marlins to 20 runs since August 6th, 2014 and is 18-5 in this series dating to July 20th, 2012. Clearly it won’t be a cake-walk in having to face the red hot Jose Fernandez (7-2, 2.82 ERA) who has given up three runs over his last 27 innings of work. Fernandez has split two starts vs. the Bucs, giving up ten hits and four runs over 13 innings. The visitors though counter with the equally as hot Gerrit Cole (5-3, 2.53) who has won three of his last four starts behind a minuscule 1.04 ERA. Cole has fared decently against the Marlins for his career, going 2-1 with a respectable 3.42 ERA in four lifetime matchups. I’m calling the starters a “wash,” but giving the big nod to the Pittsburgh line-up. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). 

After the Red Sox moved two games ahead of them in the division with yesterday’s 7-2 victory, I’m expecting the Orioles to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done this evening. Boston has been tearing the cover off the ball, but I think will have its hands full with hard-luck Kevin Gausman (0-2, 3.24 ERA), who has clearly been the victim of poor run support to this point, as Baltimore has backed him up with one run or less in four of his seven starts, while being denied a victory in two others after his bullpen blew late leads. The Orioles look to get back on track at the plate and catch a break in getting to face 23-year old Eduardo Rodriguez, who makes his season debut. Rodriguez was injured in spring training and was 10-6 with a 3.85 ERA in 21 starts as a rookie last season. The book is still out on Rodriguez. The value in this matchup is on Gausman and the home side (2.84 ERA at home), play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians.

The Indians are 16-2 in starts by Josh Tomlin since he returned from surgery about half way through the 2015 season. Tomlin (7-0, 3.35 ERA) has clearly been the beneficiary of a massive amount of run support with an average of 6.88, but that said, there’s no denying anymore that he’s turned the corner. A date vs. the Rangers is just what the doctor ordered as well as he’s 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Derek Holland (3-4, 5.21) who has had plenty of success in Cleveland in the past, but who comes into tonight’s game struggling with consistency. Note that Holland owns one of the worst road ERA’s (6.41) in the league. Both teams have been consistent at the plate of late, so I’m going to call this area a “wash.” For this pick I’m concentrating completely on the starting pitchers and also looking at what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price and having no choice but to pull the trigger on Tomlin and the home side in this matchup. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST).

I think Rich Hill is worth the price of admission in this spot. Hill (7-3, 2.18 ERA) has been Oakland’s best to this point, he’s given up more than two earned runs in just two starts and only two home runs over 57 2/3’s innings of work. Hill comes in off his best effort of the season, giving up zero walks over eight innings in a 5-0 victory at Seattle on Monday. HIll’s numbers are some of the best in the entire league, he’s posted a 1.61 ERA with 46 K’s over his last 44 2/3’s innings over his last seven trips to the hill. When Hill faced the Tigers on April 26th, he’d scatter four hits while striking out eight over seven frames in the 5-1 win. Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 5.55) was opposite Hill that day and he was shelled for five runs off nine hits over 6 2/3’s innings to fall to a deplorable 0-3 with an 11.05 ERA vs. Oakland lifetime. Pelfrey continues to struggle as he hasn’t thrown a quality start in seven straight outings, most recently getting blasted for four runs on 11 hits over six innings in Monday’s 5-4 victory over the Phillies. And that’s bad news for Detroit, as Oakland has suddenly woken up at the plate, yesterday’s 12-3 rout was its highest scoring game of the season. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price in this one. Play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 EST). 

Analysis to be posted at least 3 hours before game time.

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). 

After falling 7-2 in yesterday’s series opener, I’m expecting the home side to bounce back this evening. The Mariners hand the ball to Wade Miley (5-2, 4.50 ERA) who got off to an awful start in his first three outings for Seattle, but who has since gone 5-0 with 3.12 ERA, the latest was a 5-4 victory over the Reds on Sunday, giving up four runs off eight hits over six innings (note that three of the runs allowed vs. Cincinnati came in the first inning, Miley then settled right down). The visitors counter with the volatile Phil Hughes (1-7, 5.55) who gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a 3-1 loss to the Jays on Sunday. Hughes is now 0-5 with a poor 6.23 ERA since his only victory all the way back on April 18th. Note that Hughes has given up five home runs over his last three games. And that’s bad news for the Twins, as despite yesterday’s setback, the Mariners have still won seven of their last ten while averaging 5.7 runs per game. One other player to keep your eyes on tonight is M’s slugger Robinson Cano, who is 5 for 13 over his last three contests. I’m backing Miley and the revenge-minded home side. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, the home side has a clear advantage in this match-up. The Giants seem poised for a letdown here, they’re coming off a 5-1 homestand after sweeping the Padres, part of an overall 13-1 stretch. The Rockies though are 4-3 in the season series thus far. The visitors hand the ball to veteran Matt Cain (1-5, 5.37 ERA), who has looked much better of late by posting a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts. Cain though has been horrible on the road this year, posting a deplorable 6.62 ERA thus far. And note that the Rockies have already torched Cain to the tune of 14 runs and 16 hits over 8 2/3’s innigns this season. The home side turns to Tyler Chatwood (5-3, 3.02), who has had difficulty vs. San Francisco in the past, but who has pitched at least six scoreless frames in three of his nine outings this year and who gave up just one run over six in a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday. For this pick, I’m concentrating solely on the starting pitching and think Chatwood offers the best value. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). 

Alex Wood was scratched in this game for the Dodgers with injury, which means that teenager Julio Urias will make his major league debut on the road in New York. Urias has been promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City where he posted a 4-1 record and a 1.10 ERA in seven starts. LA comes in off a three-game sweep of the Reds and is primed for a letdown in the opener in my opinion. The home side counters with Jacob deGrom (3-1, 3.07 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up a season-high four runs over five innings in a 5-4 victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. A date vs. the Dodgers is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track though, on May 10th DeGrom held LA to two runs over a season-high seven innings of work. Despite getting sub-par starting pitching of late, the Mets come into this one on fire at the plate, they’ve hit ten homers in winning five of their last six. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Mets’ slugger David Wright, who has gone yard in back-to-back games. I’m banking on DeGrom outdueling his rookie counterpart in this one, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Miami Marlins (1:10 EST).

I think we’re getting great value on Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez in this matchup. Fernandez (6-2, 3.02 ERA) is better at home than he is on the road, but he comes into this game red hot, most recently he allowed one run off four this and one walk while striking out nine over six innings to earn a victory vs. Washington on Saturday. Fernandez has now held opponents to one or fewer runs in each of his last three outings and note that he’s still a great 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with southpaw Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.54) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out five over 6.1 innings in a setback to Detroit on Saturday. Note though that home field advantage has been anything but for Smyly this season, as he’s a poor 0-3 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in Tampa Bay to date. For the most part MLB handicapping is all about the guys on hill and in this case, everything does indeed point to the visitors as the correct call today, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

Houston’s rotation has let it down to this point. but Colin McHugh (4-4, 5.13 ERA) has started to turn things around of late, most recently he gave up two runs off five hits over seven innings in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox on Thursday, throwing opposite Chris Sale. McHugh is actually walking fewer batters this year (2.28 per nine frames) than he ever has over his career (2.36). The visitors counter with Tyler Wilson (2-2, 3.68) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a 7-2 home loss to Seattle on Thursday. So far Wilson is a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA since moving into the starting rotation. Houston comes in with momentum after yesterday’s 3-2, 13 inning victory and one other player to keep your eyes on today is George Springer, who was 3 for 4 with two walks and who has a 420 on-base percentage on a 14-game stretch of reaching base at least once. I think McHugh continues his progression and outduels his over-matched counterpart, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST). 

The White Sox look to rebound here after ace Chris Sale was knocked around for his first loss of the season in yesterday’s 6-2 setback. The home side turns to Jose Quintana (5-3, 1.98 ERA) who gave up more than two runs for the first time in nine starts on Friday, allowing four along with eight hits over 6 1/3’s frames of work in a 4-1 loss to the Royals. After receiving an average of 4.73 runs of support in his first seven outings of the year, Quintana has gotten one run of production in each of his last two starts. A date for the Tribe is just what the doctor ordered for Quintana to get back into the winners circle, he would give up two runs over 22 innings to win two of three vs. Cleveland last year (note that Carlos Santana is 4 for 23 off him (.174), while Yan Gomes is just 1 for 15). The visitors send the volatile Corey Kluber (3-5, 4.10) to the hill, he was 0-2 with a poor 5.32 ERA in three starts vs. Chicago last year. Kluber is coming off a win over the Red Sox on Friday, giving up two runs over seven innings, but he’d allowed nine runs over 9 1/3’s innings spanning two starts prior to that (note that White Sox slugger Jose Abreu is 10 for 28 with two doubles and three home runs off Kluber, while Melky Cabrera is 9 for 19 with three doubles). This is great value on Quintana and the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winners is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

Nathan Eovaldi is coming off his best start of the year, an outing which sparked the Yanks to their longest win streak of the season. Alex Rodriguez is expected to make his return and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to take advantage of the Jays’ struggling knuckle-baller. Eovaldi (4-2, 4.44 ERA) would allow a leadoff double to Jean Segura, before then retiring 18 consecutive Diamondbacks’ hitters in Wednesday’s 4-2 victory. Eovaldi has won his last three strarts by posting a highly respectable 2.84 ERA. New York is in the midst of a 12-5 stretch, not only the beneficiary of some great starting pitching, but also at the plate as Carlos Beltran was 9 for 18 with eight RBI’s vs. Oakland over the weekend, while Jacoby Ellsbury is 7 for 19 with a .500 on-base percentage over the streak. The visitors send veteran RA Dickey (2-5, 4.50) to the hill, he’s 0-3 with a 3.43 ERA in six starts at Yankee Stadium since last winning there back in 2011. Dickey has been the victim of the long-ball of late, allowing seven home runs over his last five starts. Eovaldi is the play here, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 32 Club Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). 

There’s more than 100 games still to be played this season, but this is an important series for the Cardinals, who sit seven games back of the Cubs for the NL Central lead and who are just 12-13 at home to open the season. They play with revenge as well after the Cubs took two of three from them April 18th-20th. St. Louis faces former teammate John Lackey (4-2, 3.31 ERA), who owns a 1.86 ERA over his last four outings, most recenlty coming off a 2-1 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Lackey will be opposed by Cards’ ace Adam Wainwright, who finally seems to be turning things around. Wainwright (4-3, 5.92) struggled to open the season, but comes in off his best performance of the year by scattering six hits over 6 2/3’s innings in his team’s 2-0 win over Colorado on Wednesday. And a date vs. the Cubs is in fact just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum roling for Wainwright as he hasn’t given up a run in 20 innings over his last three starts vs. them. And that’s bad news for a Chicago team which has slowed right down after it’s big start to the season, dropping five of its last seven. The Cubs are second in the NL in runs beyhind St. Louis, but are averaging just 2.7 during their cold streak. Of injury note, Chicago will once again be without the services of slugger Jason Heyward, who suffered a rib contusion on Friday diving for a catch. I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Wainwright, fantastic value on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). 

Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 1.86 ERA) has given up one earned run or less in six of eight outings this year and has domianted the Metropolitans throughout his career. I’m a big fan of Bartolo Colon’s, but I feel that this is a much larger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Most recently Gonzalez would give up one solo home run and scatter five other hits over 6 1/3’s innings in his team’s 7-1 win over New York on Wednesday. The southpaw is now 10-4 in 18 career starts vs. the Mets (and note that Gonzalez is 7-1 with a tiny 1.38 ERA over his last 15 vs. NL East teams, allowing two runs or fewer in each). Gonzalez has been especially sharp in front of the home town crowd as well, giving up just five home runs over his last 31 starts at Nationals Park and none in four this year. Colon turns 43 tomorrow and struggled against the Nats last week, issuing five walks and allowing three runs over 4 2/3’s innings. It was his second consecutive loss. Of injury note, the Mets will once again be without the services of first baseman Lucas Duda for a third straight game due to a sore back. I’m giving Gonzalez the big nod in this matchup, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST).

The Royals are playing a lot better of late and will look to take advantage of the floundering Twins and build upon their latest road series victory. Kansas City just took two of three from the White Sox over the weekend, falling 3-2 in yesterday’s finale, just its second loss in seven contests. The Royals have to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, they’ve won six in a row over Minnesota and swept three matchups at home in early April. The Royals also love playing in Minnesota as they’ve won six straight there. The hapless Twins are coming off their ninth loss in their last ten games after falling 3-1 to the Blue Jays yesterday and now have to contend with the ever improving Ian Kennedy (4-3, 3.24 ERA) who actually beat the Twins 7-0 in his debut for the Royals back on April 9th. Kennedy most recently gave up two runs over 5 2/3’s innings, while also striking out a season-high nine vs. Boston on Wednesday. The struggling home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco, who is 0-2 with a ballooned 6.21 ERA over his last five starts. Twins’ slugger Joe Mauer has had success vs. the Royals in the past, but he comes into this series with zero momentum whatsoever, batting .137 over his last 14 overall (and note that his team is hitting just .181 with 16 runs over its last six games). All things considered, this is a very fair price. I’m backing Kennedy and expecting a rout. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (8:05 EST). 

San Francisco has won five straight starts by Madison Bumgarner (5-2, 2.45 ERA) who has returned to form by going 4-1 with a tiny 1.69 ERA over his last six outings. Most recently the southpaw struck out 11 in a complete game 5-1 win over the Padres on Tuesday, the only run coming on a ninth-inning homer. Bumgarner has now struck out at least ten in two of his last three outings. And that’s bad news for the Cubs today, as Bumgarner has domianted them throughout his career, going 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in four matchups. Most recently vs. Chicago he gave up a run off two hits while striking out 12 over six innings in a 9-1 home win back on August 27th. The Cubs are now showing some signs of slowing down, while they still own the best record in the league, they’ve dropped six of their last ten following Saturday’s 5-3 setback. Note that Chicago has been held to three or fewer runs in five of its last six. The visitors counter with the volatile Kyle Hendricks (2-3, 3.51) who owns a 1-2, 5.19 ERA road record. Most recently Hendricks was shelled for four runs over 5 1/3’s innings in a 4-2 loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday. And unfortunately for the hard-throwing right hander, a date vs. the Giants is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, he faced them twice last year and went 1-1 with poor 5.56 ERA, the loss coming in San Francisco. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Giants’ slugger Buster Pose, who is 2 for 6 off Hendricks and who is 10 for 30 in his last eight games vs. Chicago. And of injury note to the Cubs, Jason Heyward will once again be sitting due to an injury he sustained in Friday’s series opener. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the home side tonight, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros.

Dallas Keuchel will look to reverse his fortunes and I think he offers pretty good value in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels (4-0, 3.10 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off nine hits over 6.2 innings vs. the A’s on Tuesday. Hamels was done in by the long-ball, allowing three home runs and it was also the second consecutive start in which he’d allowed nine hits (note that Hamels owns a poor 4.58 ERA in all “day” games this season). The home side counters with Keuchel (2-5, 5.43) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings with five K’s in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox on Tuesday. The struggling Astros ace has slowly started to turn the corner and now has two quality starts out of his last three trips to the hill. I think the Cy Young award winner continues his progression back to prominence and outduels his veteran counterpart. Great value on Houston this afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox.

Two veteran hurlers go head to head in this one, but I think Rick Porcello is a little undervalued in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Danny Salazar (4-2, 1.80 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight over 7.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Salazar issued just one walk in the win, after surrendering six free passes in his previous outing. Porcello (6-2, 3.51) is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off eight hits and two walks with three K’s over five frames in a loss to the Royals on Tuesday. The right-hander has been as solid as the Red Sox could have hoped for this year though as he had posted six consecutive quality starts previous to that. Porcello now has 49 K’s in 51.1 innings of work and is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Salazar’s high walk count won’t cut it against the hard-hitting Red Sox, Porcello is the play here. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (4:10 EST). 

I think Drew Smyly and the visitors are worth the price of admission in this spot. Smyly (2-4, 3.44 ERA) gave up one run off four hits and four walks with six K’s over five frames in a victory over the Jays on Monday. Smyly now has 58 K’s in 49.2 innings of work and perhaps most impressively in his victory over Toronto is that he’d keep the ball in the yard, surrendering zero home runs to the Jays’ dangerous lineup (note that Smyly has been particularly sharp on the road this year as well, going 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA). The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (2-1, 6.52 ERA) was rocked for five runs off five hits and three walks while striking out six over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Orioles on Sunday (note that Fulmer owns an 8.31 ERA in “day” games this season). The Tigers’ are obviously pretty desperate for starting pitching right now, this is clearly a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

The 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (2:10 EST).

I think that JA Happ is worth the price of admission in this spot. Happ (5-1, 3.40 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the year, allowing eight runs off seven hits and a walk over just two innings in a setback to the Rays on Monday. I don’t think there’s any need to hit the panic button if you’re a Jays fan though, Happ had opened the season with seven consecutive quality starts. Happ’s numbers were bound to take a hit at some point after the blistering start, but note that he’s excelled in this spot all year, going 2-0 with a 1.91 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with the inexperienced Pat Dean (0-1, 4.50) who made an appearance vs. the Tigers last Monday, giving up two runs over 5.1 innings of work. This is Dean’s first major league start and obviously he’s being thrown to the wolves in squaring off against Happ and the hard-hitting Jays. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST).

The Mariners have been winning big away from friendly confines this season, going 6-0-1 in road series and 15-7 overall. The M’s are slugging .268 with 5.3 runs per game and 34 dingers on the road, compared to a .218 average, 3.7 runs and 21 homers in front of the home town crowd. Slugger Robinson Cano has thrived on the road thus far, hitting .370 with nine home runs and 24 RBI, while batting just .213 with three longballs and 12 RBI in Seattle. The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (1-4, 4.38 ERA), who despite posting a 3.38 ERA in five away outings, has just one win. Iwakuma has been the victim of poor run support, getting two runs or fewer in six of his eight starts this year. The home side counters with Dan Straily (2-1, 3.05) who has given up three runs or fewer in each of his last six starts and struck out six over five scoreless innings in Sunday’s 9-4 victory at Philadelphia (note though that Straily is 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts against the Mariners). Cincinnati has zero momentum whatsoever, Thursday’s 7-2 loss to Cleveland capped a four-game sweep at the hands of its interstate rivals, it would allow 43 runs and 24 walks in the pathetic effort. I think the hard-hitting Mariners take full advantage and all things considered, this is indeed a very fair price. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I think Aaron Nola and the home side are worth the pirce of admission in this spot. The Braves hand the ball to Matt Wisler (1-3, 3.14 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits over 7.1 innings in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Sunday. Wisler has for the most part been as sharp as Atlanta could possibly hope for, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his performance in all “night” games this season, going just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA. Nola (3-2, 2.89) gave up two runs (one earned) off five hits while striking out nine and walking only one in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Nola would throw 71 of his 100 pitches for strikes, including 15 swing and misses (note that it’s the second time this year that he’s posted nine K’s). Unlike his counterpart, Nola has been sharp in all night contests this season, going 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA. As decent as Wisler has been of late, I’m giving Nola the nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 5* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:00 EST).

This is admittedly a large price to pay, but one well worth it in my opinion. Chris Sale is arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now, while Colin McHugh has struggled with consistency so far in 2016. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting another dominant peformance from the White Sox ace. Sale (8-0, 1.67 ERA) is off to one of the best starts in MLB history and he’ll be eager to help his team avoid a fifth straight loss. Most recently the southpaw struck out six with zero walks in a 7-1 win over the Yanks on Friday. Houston has won two straight after Wednesday’s 5-3 victory, but is primed for a letdown today in handing the ball to the volatile McHugh (4-3, 5.58), who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, most recently he was shelled for four runs off ten hits and three walks over six innings in a 6-5 loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. And note that McHugh has been particularly horrible on the road this year, posting a brutal 8.74 ERA in three starts away from friendly confines. Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST).

Michael Wacha (2-4, 3.23 ERA) has posted a 3.60 ERA over his last four outings, but his offense has supported him with just 1.80 runs per game in that span (after he received an average of 8.87 runs of support while going 2-0 with a 2.82 ERA over his first four). Wacha looks to bounce back off his worst outing of the season, giving up six runs over four innings of an 8-4 loss to the Dodgers on Friday. To be fair to Wacha though, it wasn’t entirely his fault as only two of the runs were earned, his team would commit four of its major league-leading 36 errors in the setback. Wacha is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts against the Rockies, whose five-game win streak was snapped in yesterday’s 2-0 loss. The visitors counter with Jon Gray (1-1, 4.71) who earned his first victory in his 14th start on Friday, giving up two runs over seven innings of a 5-2 win over the Mets. Gray has been a bit over the map with his consistency this year, he’s posted a great 1.38 ERA on the road with a 7.47 ERA at home. I think we’ll start to see these lop-sided numbers correct themselves. Momentum is difficult to build and even harder to re-gain after losing it, I think Colorado is primed for another letdown tonight. I like Wacha at home (2.08 ERA in St. Louis) and expect the Cards’ bats to finally deliver with some support. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry