Cappers Sports Picks

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

The Red Sox took the opener of this series 7-6 last night. Boston is 9-5 overall on the year, while Toronto is just 2-11. 

Both of today’s starters have struggled with consistency this season.

Rick Porcello was the Cy Young award winner last year, which was a complete shock as up until 2016 he’d never shown dominance like that before. 

Porcello though has struggled this season, just 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA, most recently getting shelled for eight runs off eight hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 10-2 loss to the Rays. 

The Jays Francisco Liriano hasn’t been any better, so far he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. However, Liriano looked under control in his last start, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while stirking out ten over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Thursday. 

Toronto may be without slugger Josh Donaldson, but I don’t think it will matter. The Jays are a desperate team. I also think that Liriano has the advantage on the mound. 

Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on this hungry and underachieving home side. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Matt Cain (1-0, 4.82 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he gave up one run off five hits and three walks over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. 

Cain struggled in this spot last year though, going just 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA on the road and only 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 6.52), who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Hammel was 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA last year, which included going 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA in all “home” games and 11-5 with a 3.53 ERA in all “night” contests.

I’ll point out though that San Francisco is just 2-7 (-7.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while KC is 4-1 (+3.8 units) after a victory.

I like Hammel to bounce back and expect Cain to struggle in this interleague tilt. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

Both teams are struggling with offensive consistency to open the season, but I think that Danny Salazar has a bigger advantage on the mound tonight than what the bookmakers are leading us to beileve. 

Minnesota comes in off a 3-1, 10-inning loss to the White Sox, while Cleveland dropped two of three at home over the weekend, including a 4-1 setback to Detroit on Sunday. 

The Tribe have struggled with southpaws this year, so they’ll be happy to head to Minnesota, which features four righties in this series.

Kyle Gibson (0-1, 8.00 ERA) gets the call for the home side. He’s 2-3 with a 6.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Indians. 

Salazar is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts this year, but did have 11 K’s in his last outing. Also note that Salazar was pretty good on the road last year, going 6-4 with a respectable 3.57 ERA.

I’ll point out that Cleveland is 130-103 (+4.2 units) in its last 233 against right-handed starters, while Minnesota is just 96-134 (-20.8) units against right-handed starters.

I think the under-achieving Indians break out in a big way at the plate tonight against the struggling Gibson. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* INTERLEAGUE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (8:05 EST).

Adam Wainwright (0-2, 7.00 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors in this one, he most recently was shelled for six runs off 11 hits and two walks over four innings in a 14-6 loss to the Nationals on Monday. 

The home side counters with Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.97), who went 7.2 innings of one-run ball in a victory over the Rays on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and striking out 11 with no walks. 

Pineda now owns a 17:0 K:BB ratio this season.

Wainwright is labouring, which I think comes back to hurt him again tonight. The Yanks come in off a 3-2 win on Saturday and I expect that momentum to get carried over here.

The correct call in this matchup is on Pineda. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Situational Stunner on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST).

Cleveland has so far underperformed, it’s now just 4-6 and looking up at the 7-3 Tigers after yesterday’s 7-6 loss.

Justin Verlander has looked pretty good to start the year for Detroit, but I think that Corey Kluber and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Verlander (1-0, 1.35 ERA) most recently gave up one unearned run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Red Sox on Monday. There was some room to read between the lines though, as he was in fact struggling to find the zone, needing 112 pitches to make it through the seven frames. 

Kluber (0-1, 5.25 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. 

A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, not that Kluber was 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year (also 6-4 with a 3.10 ERA in all “day” games).

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-4 (-1.6 units) in its last seven following a victory, while Cleveland is 16-5 (+10 units) in its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses.

I think Verlander takes a step back and look for Kluber to take a giant leap forward. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

After 111 career relief appearances, JC Ramirez will make his first ever major league start for the Angels tonight.

Suffice it to say, I think he’s going to fail spectacularly.

Ramirez has been sharp in relief this year, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But this is taking the 28-year old Nicaraguan completely out of his element.

And he draws a tough matchup as well in throwing opposite Royals’ ace Danny Duffy (1-0, 2.08 ERA), who most recently beat the Astros 7-3 on Saturday, allowing two runs off eight scattered hits spanning seven innings of work. 

KC plays with revenge here as well after LA took five of six in the season series a year ago.

Lay the price, play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST).

The Braves are off to an awful start (2-6), but have to be feeling pretty confident in their home opener in their new ballpark with their ace on the mound. 

The Padres are 5-5, but send a confirmed “gas can” to the hill tonight. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the home side here.

Julio Teheran gets the nod for the Braves and so far he hasn’t allowed an earned run over 13 innings over his first two starts. Teheran dominated the Friars last year, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and striking out 16 to just one walk over 15 innings of work.

The vistors turn to Jhoulys Chacin, who was lost 13-4 to the Dodgers in his opener, but who looked better in his second start against the Giants, holding them to zero runs off three hits over 6 1/3’s innings. 

Note though that Chacin has struggled against Atlanta, going 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.05 ERA lifetime. 

Look for the Teheran to put on a show in his new park and lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

The Mets beat the Marlins 9-8 in 16 innings last night, with Travis d’Arnaud’s home run off Adam Conley being the difference maker. Conley was supposed to start tonight, but Edison Volquez will be thrust into action. He’s 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA. 

The visitors counter with ace Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 0.69 ERA), who has held Marlins’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton to a .000 batting average in 12 matchups. 

Syndergaard is averaging 10.4 K’s per nine innings and has a 5.41 K to walk ratio. Note that he already beat the Marlins this year, 5-2 just last week.

Volquez is off normal rest, but he now faces a Mets’ line-up which leads the league with 20 homers, which is more than double Miami’s. 

This is a massive mismatch on the mound. I look for New York to come in as the more energized team here after last night’s marathon victory. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

Baltimore is 5-2 this year. After getting smashed 8-1 in Boston Tuesday, the Orioles bounced back with a big 12-5 win last night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here.

Toronto is 1-7. It’s the worst start ever for the franchise. Are the Jays really as bad as their win/loss record would indicate? Clearly the answer to that one is “no.” 

The Jays have gotten decent pitching so far this year, but the offense has been a disaster. Toronto lost Edwin Encarnacion to free agency in the summer, which is significant, but still doesn’t even come close to explaining why this explosive line-up is struggling right now.

I don’t think it’s anything to worry about though. No matter how good your line-up is, at some point in the season it’s going to go through a “slump.” Unfortunately for the Jays, it’s coming right at the start of the year. I believe it’s only a matter of time before they start raking again.

And here’s the perfect opponent to try and get untracked against. Toronto opened its season at Baltimore with a two game set and lost 3-2 and 3-1 respectively. 

Kevin Gausman gets the call tonight, he went 5.1 innings against the Jays and gave up two runs off five hits. Gausman took a step back in his second start against the Yanks though, allowing four runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings. 

The home side counters with Francisco Liriano, who started the year on the DL, but who was activated on Tuesday. Liriano looked horrible in his first start, lasting just a third of an inning on April 7th, allowing five runs: “I think it was a little bit of everything,” Liriano said after he could not make it out of the first inning for just the second time in 257 career starts. “Overthrowing, mechanically, missing my spot. I just didn’t execute pitches. That’s the main thing. You have to execute pitches when you have men on base. I was getting behind in the count a lot and I didn’t execute pitches.”

I’ll point out that Baltimore is just 8-22 in Gausman’s last 30 road starts, while Toronto is 7-3 in its last ten during Game 1 of a series.

Gausman was just 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road last year. 

I like Liriano to shrug off his first start and to do just enough to help his team earn its second victory of the season. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (3:30 EST).

I think this is a big pitching mismatch.

The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side turns to Ricky Nolasco. Both are 0-1 to start the year.

So far the Rangers are hitting just .222 collectively, but they’ve made up for it with a big .436 slugging percentage, which ranks in the top ten. 

So far Darvish has allowed five earned runs over 13 innings spanning two starts this year. Darvish looked shaky in his first outing, but looked a lot better in his last start, allowing only one run over six frames, unfortuante to receive a loss due to a rare lack of offensive production. Suffice it to say, I expect that momentum to get carried over here.

Darvish will have to be sharp, as LA comes in as one of the highest scoring teams in the league, having already plated 41 so far this year. 

Nolasco though hasn’t looked overly impressive this year, most recently giving up two runs over six frames to the light-hitting Mariners. Note that he was just 3-7 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA at home last season.

I give Darvish the nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors in this matchup. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

LA has lost three of its last four after dropping the opener of this series on Monday night. The Dodgers managed just one run and four hits over six innings against southpaw Jon Lester. 

Today the visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy, who due to injury has been limited to just 63 innings over the last two seasons combined. In his 2017 debut against the soft-hitting Friars, he’d allow two runs and four hits over six innings with four K’s in the victory. 

Chicago counters with John Lackey, who gave up four runs and six hits over six innings, to go along with seven K’s and two walks in a loss to the Cards in his debut. 

I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are 1-4 their last five on the road, while the Cubs are 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven starts following a “quality start” in his last appearance. 

I like Lackey to bounce back here, he was 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA at Wrigley last season. This game has a lot of meaning for the home side, as the players will receive their World Series rings before it starts. 

I think the Cubs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I had a play on the Red Sox yesterday and they’d go on to smoke the Orioles 8-1.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar type beatdown here in what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. 

The visitors send the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill, he was shelled for five runs, including two homers over 4.1 innings to the Yanks in his first start this season. 

Jimenez was crushed by Boston last year, going 0-2 and allowing 11 runs over just 15.1 innings of work. In his career, he’s a miserable 2-6 with a 6.82 ERA against the Red Sox. 

Steven Wright gave up four runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings against the Tigers in his first start, lucky to receive a no-decision. Wright has to be feeling pretty confident in a bounce back here though as he domianted the Orioles last year, allowing only five runs over 16.1 innings of work. Note that in 22 career innings against Baltimore, he owns a highly respectable 2.45 ERA.

Jimenez is a train wreck and the fact that the Boston bats finally woke up in yesterday’s beatdown loss does not bode well for the beleagured veteran. All things considered, I think this is a great price, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Reds took Game 1 of this series 7-1 and then kept the momentum rolling with a 6-2 victory in Game 2 yesterday. Suffice it to say, i think it’s payback time tonight!

The visitors turn to Amir Garrett, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after beating the Cards on the road Friday, going six scoreless in the eventual 2-0 victory. Garrett was 25-29 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 496 innings of work in the minors, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie.

After sweeping the Braves, the Pirates have come out flat with a couple of rare back-to-back “duds.” Sending Ivan Nova to the hill is a good way to get back on track, he also won his first outing of the season, going six innings and allowing one run off six hits with no walks and four K’s. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 33 innings lifetime against the Reds.

He’s also a near-perfect 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.928 WHIP over 46.2 innings in seven starts at PNC Park. 

I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 15-39 in its last 54 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.5, while the Bucs are 10-3 in their last 13 against southpaws.

Despite how good Garrett looked in his first start, I’m giving the big nod to Nova in this matchup. The veteran has been almost un-hittable at home and certainly the Pirates will be desperate to salvage one game of this series. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Arizona is 6-2 to open the season and San Francsico is just 3-5. 

The Diamondbacks swept the Indians, but then came out flat in last night’s 4-1 series opening loss. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. The visitors send Robbie Ray to the hill, he received a no-decision against these very Giants in his first start of the year, allowing three runs off three hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work in the eventual 9-3 win. Last year Ray was just 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 32 starts, including only 3-9 with a 4.50 ERA in 17 on the road. 

The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija, who lost 9-3 to the Diamondbacks throwing opposite Ray. He did have nine K’s in that one. Note that he’s 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants overall.

I’ll point out though that the Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in Ray’s last 26 road starts, while the Giants are 36-17 in their last 53 home games against southpaws.

I love Samardzija to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and get the better of his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

This is the first game a short two-game series from Fenway Park. Baltimore is 4-1 so far, while Boston is 3-2. 

The visitors send Dylan Bundy to the hill and he looked pretty good in his first start against Toronto, giving up just one run over 7.1 innings of work. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one good start though. Bundy had mixed results this spring and he struggled mightily against the Red Sox last year, getting shelled for 15 runs off 31 hits over 20 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz, who makes his season debut tonight. Pomeranz had just a 4.59 ERA with the Red Sox last year, starting slow, but finishing decently. Pomeranz, like the rest of the Red Sox rotation was the beneficiary of the league’s most potent offense last season though.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-4 (-2.8 units) in its last five against left-handed starters, while Boston is 5-2 (+1.3 units) in its last seven against right-handed starters.

This is a big season for Pomeranz, who was a standout in San Diego and who has so far been a disappointment in Boston. I’m not convinced Bundy has turned any corners and think he’ll struggle today in this hostile environment. In my opinion, this line could/should easily be much higher. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). 

The Cards were hammered 8-0 at home to the Reds yesterday and dropped two of three in that series. 

The Nats can empathize, they lost the last two games of their three game series with the Phillies, falling 4-3 Sunday afternoon on the road.

St. Louis though looks horrible at the plate and I think that trend of anemic play gets carried over here. Note that the Cards have been held to one run or less in three of their first six games. 

Adam Wainwright gets the call in this one, so far he’s 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs off three hits and two walks with six K’s over five innings to the Cubs on Tuesday. Wainwright has enjoyed success against the Nats in his career, but I think he’ll have his hands full today against the focused home side.

Washington turns to Tanner Roark to “right the ship,” he’s 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP on the season, going six innings and allowing two runs off three hits and two walks and six K’s in a 6-4 win over Miami in his first start. Roark has struggled against the Cards in the past, but he’s been a beast at home no matter who he’s faced, going 22-13 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 274 innings pitched at Nationals Park.

This is the Cards first game on the road and I expect Roark and the home side to take advantage. The price is right in this one, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Kansas City Royals.

The Royals won the World Series in 2015, but they’d return to .500 last season. The A’s took the season series 6-1 a year ago.

Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time.

The Royals come back home after taking two of three from Houston, but dropping the finale yesterday 5-4 in 15 innings. It was a great turnaround series after stumbling out of the gate, the Royals are now 2-4 overall.

KC has to be feeling pretty confident in facing A’s starter Jharel Cotton, who was shelled for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings to the Angels in his first start of the year. 

The youngster looked great in five starts last season, but clearly the sample size is still too small to get a proper read on this volatile hurler quite yet. 

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy, who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the Twins in his opener. It was a bit of a disappointment, as Kennedy had had a strong spring previous to that sub-par outing.

I’ll point out though that Oakland is just 5-11 in its last 16 against right-handed starters, while KC is interestingly 4-1 in Kennedy’s last five starts in the first game of a series.

Kennedy looked pretty pedestrian in his first trip to the mound, but he looked a lot better than his counterpart did in his first. I think KC turned a corner in the series against the Astros and I look for that momentum to get carried over into this one.

I think this line should in fact be a lot larger, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that the oddsmaker’s are not giving Martins Perez enough respect in this matchup, as I have no faith whatsoever in A’s starter Sean Manaea.

Manaea was 7-9 with a 3.86 ERA last year, including just 2-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 11 starts on the road. He’s also a poor 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA in four starts against Texas, including 0-1 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA in two outings at Rangers Ballpark.

Manaea gave up four runs off five hits and two walks over six innings against the Angels on Tuesday.

Perez was 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 33 starts last year, including 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts at home. Overall he’s 17-13 with a 3.75 ERA in 43 lifetime starts at Rangers Ballpark.

Perez gave up three runs off five hits and four walks across six innings in Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to the Indians, striking out four. He gave up all three runs over the first two innings, but he’d settle down nicely over his remaining four, not allowing a single hit. 

Oakland has averaged just 4.00 RPG to open the year, while Texas has average 6.00. 

I’m giving Perez the nod in this matchup on the mound and a big nod to the Rangers at the plate, who look poised for a productive afternoon against the inconsistent Manaea. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:10 EST).

Detroit won 4-1 on Saturday afternoon, but with its ace on the mound, I expect Boston to bounce back in the finale.

Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award last year and he’d open up the 2017 season with a 5-3 win over the Pirates, allowing three runs over 6.1 innings of work. Last year he was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, including 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts on the road. 

Daniel Norris was 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games last year. Norris was sidelined with “arm fatigue” to end spring training, but has been cleared to go. Norris is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three games against Boston and is 1-3 with a 4.14 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park.

I’ll point out that Boston is 15-6 in its last 21 against left-handed starters, while Detroit is interestingly just 3-9 in its last 12 home games against a team with a raod winning percentage of less than .400.

Norris has shown lots of promise, but the arm fatigue issue make Porcello the correct call here. Look for Boston to battle back and avenge yesterday’s setback with a convincing victory. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST).

I had a 10* play on Jesse Chavez and the Angels last night, but I think the Mariners can bounce back with their ace on the mound this evening.

Hernandez lost his first start of the season, despite only giving up just two runs against the Astros. Hernandez would go on to strike out six in the unfortunate setback.

The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco, who was shelled for three earned runs off seven hits over 5 2/3’s innings in his first start against Oakland this year. Two costly home runs proved to be the difference. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 road games against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Hernandez’s last eight starts following a team loss in its previous game, while LA is just 2-5 in Nolasco’s last seven starts versus the American League West.

“The King” looked great against a dangerous Astros lineup, while Nolasco struggled against the soft-hitting A’s in their respective openers. Sometimes recent performance is the best indicator we have in properly judging starting pitching and in this case, I definitely feel that Hernandez has a big/clear advantage. 

Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

The Pirates held on for a 5-4 series opening win yesterday and i think the home side will also find a way to pull it out this evening as well.

RA Dickey makes his first start for the Braves after spending four years in Toronto. Last year he won only ten games and posted a poor 4.46 ERA over 169.2 innings of work. Dickey looked shaky in the spring and draws a tough first venue to open 2017.

The home side counters with Chad Kuhl, who was 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA last year. Kuhl would allow seven earned runs over 14.2 innings this spring and posted a solid .185 opponent batting average. 

Pittsburgh has done well in this spot, going 5-1 in Kuhl’s last six home starts and 4-0 in its last four home games against right-handed starters.

The Braves are now just 2-7 in their last nine in Pittsburgh and all signs point to another blowout mismatch. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

Baltimore won a back-and-forth, 6-5 series opener yesterday, but I think New York can bounce back this afternoon with its ace on the mound.

Masahiro Tanaka had a career year last season and also a strong spring performance, but he came up short in his first start of 2017, getting shelled for seven runs off eight hits with two walks over 2.2 innings against the Rays. 

A date against the O’s is just what the doctor ordered for Tanaka to get untracked though, as he’s posted a tiny 2.39 ERA and 0.876 WHIP over five starts against them. In his lone start at Camden yards last year, Tanaka threw eight scoreless, allowing five hits and striking out seven.

The home side counters with Kevin Gausman, who recorded a no-decision in his first outing of the year against the Jays, allowing two runs off five hits with four walks and four K’s over five innings of work. Gausman has enjoyed plenty of success against the Yanks in the past, going 6-3 with a 1.92 ERA lifetime, but I think he’s going to get outmatched on the mound this evening. 

The Orioles have been winning games, but not blowing out teams. The Yanks’ bats looked a lot better last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here as the Evil Empire looks to break its sluggish performance to open the season. Play on the Yankees.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

The Mariners opened the 2017 season with three straight losses to the Astros. The M’s lost by one run, two runs and three runs respectively. 

LA comes in off a 5-1 loss in Oakland last night and will be looking to bounce back behind the big bat of Mike Trout, who already has 12 total bases through three games and hitting .385 to open early. 

Seattle’s pitching has looked decent, but the offense has been a disaster, currently hitting .145 collectively with an on base percentage under .250 and a slugging percentage of just .218. 

The visitors send Yovani Gallardo to the hill, he was 6-8 with a 5.42 ERA for the Orioles last season. Gallardo had a horrible spring and in his final tune-up he’d allow seven earned runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 12-2 Cactue League loss to the soft-hitting Padres.

The home side counters with Jesse Chavez, who was 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Chavez though comes in sharp right now, he’s been in a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation all spring and he would in the end earn the position by posting a 2.51 ERA with 12 K’s over 13.1 innings of work. 

I think Chavez will easily outduel his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value on the home side in this one. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

Oakland managed a 5-1 win over the Angels last night, splitting its season opening series with LA, 2-2. 

The Rangers are 0-3 to open the year though, as they fell 9-6 to the Tribe last night, after entering the ninth inning up 6-4. Texas has never made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. 

The visitors hand the ball to Raul Alcantara. Last year he made five starts for the A’s and would go 1-3 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over 22.1 innings of work, allowing a whopping nine homers in that span. 

The home side counters with AJ Griffin, who was 7-4 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.361 WHIP over 119 innings of work last year. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.222 WHIP lieftime at Globe Life Park.

Griffin faces his former team for the first time in his career, so clearly he’s going to be extra-amped up tonight. The Rangers as a whole will also be desperately trying to get off the schneid. Clearly Oakland will also be hungry for a win here, but I think Griffin has the advantage in this matchup. 

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Divisional Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 EST).

Toronto has been the top team in the AL East the last two season’s, but with Edwin Encarnacion leaving to the Tribe in the offseason, many have speculated that the team would take a step back this year. 

The Jays are still stacked, with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar and other sluggers, but so far the production just hasn’t been there after the first two games as Toronto comes town 0-2 after two straight setbacks in Baltimore to open the 2017 campaign.

Both were close, low-scoring affairs that we’re decided in the latter frames (in extra innings in the first game). 

The Rays took two of three from the Yankees to open the year, but I think they’ll stumble here against this highly focused Jays team.

The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman who enters the new season off an impressive WBC classic in which he led Team USA to its first ever win in the event. Stroman had an up-and-down 2016, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others.

But that said, recent performance is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, Stroman comes in on top form and I’m expecting that momentum and confidence to be carried over here.

The home side counters with Blake Snell, who will get his first full year in the majors. Last season he got 19 starts and finished 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA. 

Will Snell dominate this year? Experts agree that a .500 season would be considered a huge success for the southpaw. 

Stroman is the correct call here.

I love this play and expect the underachieving Jays to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST).

Washington came roaring back to win 6-4 yesterday and I think it’ll once again post a convincing victory in the finale of this three game set.

The Nats also came from behind to take Game 1, 4-2. 

Things won’t get any easier for the Fish today either with Tom Koehler on the mound, he was 9-13 with pedestrian 4.33 ERA in 33 starts last year, including a poor 5-6 with a 4.48 EA on the road. 

Koehler has been at his worst as well whenver he’s faced the Nationals, going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 starts, which includes a deplorable 1-5, 5.73 ERA record in eight outings at Nationals Park. 

Many feel the window of opportunity is now closing quickly for the Nationals, as their superstars aren’t get any younger and also other various contract issues which the team will have to deal with shortly.

The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez, who was 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 32 starts last year, including 7-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 16 starts at home. 

Gonzalez though has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 11 starts against them. Also note that he’s 33-20 with a 3.29 ERA in 73 career starts at Nationals Park.

I’ll point out that Miami is a horrible 20-43 in Koehler’s last 63 starts against a team with a winning record, while Washington is 14-6 in its last 20 home games against right-handed starters.

Washington is 5-0 in its last five at home with Gonzalez on the mound against Miami and all signs point to another victory here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GETAWAY DAY SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cincinnati Reds (12:35 EST).

The Phillies end their opening season series with the Reds on Thursday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Philadelphia sends veteran Clay Buchholz to the hill, last year he’d finish 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA. Buchholz has had an atrocious spring, most recently getting shelled for three runs off five hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the Pirates on Sunday, finishing with a 5.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in March. 

The home side counters with rookie Rookie Davis (yes you read that right). The 6 foot 5, 255 pound hurler made the opening day roster after finishing the warm-up period with a solid 4.02 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 17:3 K:BB ratio over 15.2 innings of work. 

This start means the World to Davis, so we definitely have nothing to worry about as far his effort and focus here. And for me, that’s going to be more than enough, as I have zero faith in Buchholz and expect him to struggle this season.

Great price on the home side in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

I had a play on San Francisco last night, but this evening I’m going the other way as I think the Taijuan Walker is flying under the radar here after a strong spring.

Walker came over from Seattle in a trade for second baseman Jean Segura. 

Walker was 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA last year, but he was dominant through his spring warm up, with his fast-ball reaching almost 100 MPH. 

Matt Moore was 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA in his starts for San Francisco last year. Moore was consistently inconsistent on the road though, going just 4-7 with a poor 5.02 ERA away from friendly confines (was also just 4-9 with a 5.03 ERA in all “night” games).

One other player to keep your eyes on today is Arizona slugger Paul Goldschmidt, who had a homer yesterday and who needs one more hit for 848 for his career, which would move him past Steve Finley for No. 2 on the D-Backs hit list.

I think Walker is the correct call here, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

For 7/8th’s of his season last year, Cole Hamels looked great for Texas.

But the veteran southpaw would post a poor 6.75 ERA over his final six starts and was blasted by the Jays in his lone playoff outing.

Hamels though comes in off a great spring, giving up just one run over his last 11 Cactus League innings. Both he and the Rangers will be trying hard to avoid going 0-3 to open the season. 

The visitors counter with Danny Salazar, who also had a great first half in 2016, but was then hampered with right elbow discomfort down the stretch. Salazar looked decent in Spring as well, striking out 37 batters over 26 innings of work.

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range.

I’ll call these starters a “wash,” but think the desperate Rangers offer great value in this spot as they play hard and finally get off the schneid.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Domiantor is on the Kansas City Royals (1:10 EST).

The 0-1 KC Royals are in Minnesota to take on the 1-0 Twins on Wedneday afternoon and I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

And that’s because I think Ian Kennedy is being severely undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Kennedy was 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Kennedy, like the rest of the starting rotation, didn’t get a ton of support last season, so his record isn’t entirely indicative of how well the veteran performed. He was good and that was carried over this spring where he would give up zero earned runs over 17.1 innings spanning four Cactus League starts, striking out 19 while giving up nine hits and three walks. 

Note that Kennedy was particularly effective in all “day” games as well last season, going 5-2 with a very respectable 3.00 ERA.

The home side counters with Hector Santiago and he was 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 33 starts between the Angels and Twins last year. That included going 1-4 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA in six starts at Target Field. 

I’ll point out that KC is 4-1 in ist last five road games against a left-handed starter, while Minnesota is just 4-18 in its last 22 after scoring five runs or more in its previous game.

Kennedy is 4-1 in his career against Minnesota, while Santiago is just 2-3 in his career against the Royals. 

Look for KC to bounce back after the opening day loss. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST).

This is the second game of a four game series. San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the hill and Arizona counters with Patrick Corbin.

The Diamondbacks would pull away for a 6-5 win in Game 1, but if history is any precedence, then the Giants have to be liking their chances for a bounce back tonight as they won the season series with the D-Backs 13-6 last year. 

Cueto was 18-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last season. He was 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA against Arizona. He comes in off a strong spring in which he conceded just two runs in 12 innings of work. 

Corbin didn’t fare as well in 2016, going 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Corbin though had a decent spring, allowing seven earned runs over 18.1 innings of work. He’s also been “ok” against San Francisco throughout his career, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

San Francsico pitcher Madison Bumgarner hit two home runs in the first game and it still wasn’t enough, but this time around I feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound does absolutely justify in laying what I do feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price. 

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST).

The Mariners look to bounce back here after falling 3-0 in the opener as “ace” Felix Hernandez lost to Houston’s top guy Dallas Keuchel.

The M’s fell three games shy of a playoff spot last year, due mostly to a slow start at the beginning. The team will look to avoid the same fate this season and notch its first victory of the year with Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill. 

Iwakuma was 16-12 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.327 WHIP last year. Iwakma is 3-3 with a respectable 3.26 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in eight starts at Minute Maid Park. 

Houston counters with Lance McCullers, who was 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.543 WHIP over 81 innings last season. McCullers has looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. He’s still only 22 years old and has just 36 major league starts to his name. McCullers has had success against the Mariners in the past, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this revenge minded Seattle team which will be eager to atone for the “goose egg” it laid yesterday.

Like the Mariners, Iwakuma got off to a slow start last year. I like the veteran to come out strong in the opener and get the better of his young counterpart. Great dog play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST).

I played the Rays in Game 1 on Sunday and I feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side offer great value this evening as well.

Tampa took that contest 7-3. Sending volatile veteran CC Sabathia to the hill is likely not what the doctor ordered to get back into the winners circle though for New York as he was a poor 9-12 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA in 30 starts last season. 

Note that in 41 career starts against Tampa Bay, Sabathia has gone 14-14 with a 3.83 ERA. 

The home side counters with Odorizzi, who was 10-6 witha 3.69 ERA spanning 33 starts last year. Odorizzi was solid at home, going 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA. In 12 appearances against the Yanks, he’s gone 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA.

Both teams were poor offensively last year, ranking in the bottom third in production. New York ace Masahiro Tanaka had a great spring, but the Rays destroyed the hard-throwing japanese hurler. 

Suffice it to say, I think more of the same is in store for Sabathia tonight. Look for Tampa to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as I look for Odorizzi to outduel his aging counterpart.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (7:05 EST).

A couple of hard-hitting clubs face off against a couple of pitchers which have looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others. 

For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Yu Darvish and the home side.

Corey Kluber gets the call for the Indians, he started slowly last year, but finished strong with an 18-9, 3.14 ERA. 

Darvish didn’t come into the 2016 season until after the All Star break, but returned to post a 3.41 ERA and a 132:31 K:BB ratio spanning 17 games. He had a solid spring and looks poised to return to his pre-injury levels of play.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is in fact just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range. 

It’s going to take some time for the new faces for the Tribe, like Edwin Encarnacion, to start to mix well with their new team, I think the scales are indeed tipped in the Rangers favor in this one. Play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (3:05 EST).

Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays get ready to battle the Baltimore Orioles in in these team’s respective openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Estrada was 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He’s posted back-to-back sub-3.50 ERA’s for Toronto, but certainly he hasn’t been its best pitcher. Surely Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ all could have been better choices to open the season. Estrada actually posted a better road ERA than at home last year, but I think this is a tough opening matchup for the veteran.

The Orioles counter with Kevin Gausman, who was 9-12 with a 3.61 ERA last year. Gausman has worked hard on his slider and curveball in the offseason and many believe he’s primed for a break out performance in 2017. Note that he was particularly effective at home last year as well, going 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA (was also 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in all “day” games).

These teams finished with identical records last season and it was Toronto that ousted Baltimore in the AL Wild Card playoff game. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “pay back” time!

Finally note that the Orioles are 7-1 in their last eight home starts with Gausman on the hill. Play on Baltimore.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NL SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:35 EST).

The defending champs are in St. Louis to open the season and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cubs.

The Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years last season, winning 8-7 in ten innings in Game 7, while the Cards finished second overall in the NL Central and would go on to miss the postseason. 

Chicago has to be liking it chances in this one, it won the season series against St. Louis 10-9 last year, including six victories out of nine played at Busch Stadium.

Jon Lester gets the nod for the visitors, he’d finish 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA over 202.2 innings in 2016. Lester is 3-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 58 K’s in 59.1 innings of work lifetime against the Cards. Lester was especially strong against St. Louis last season, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in three starts at Busch Stadium.

The Cards rotation is in a bit of a flux to open the year, so they’ll send Carlos Martinez to counter. Martinez finished 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 2016. Martinez has not fared well against the Cubs in the past, going just 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.433 WHIP over 30 innings spanning five starts against them last season.

I’ll point out that Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games and 14-3 in Lester’s last 17 starts in Game 1 of a series, while St. Louis is just 3-11 in its last 14 home games against left-handers.

Lester has dominated the Cardinals throughout his career and the Cubbies have the core of their defense intact which allowed a league low 556 runs last year. 

All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the better team. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST).

The New York Yankees are in Tampa Bay on Monday afternoon in these division rivals’ respective series openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Each team sends its respective ace to the mound. 

The Yanks turn to Masahiro Tanaka who was 3-1 with a 0.38 ERA in 23.2 innings in spring training. He’s been awesome against the Rays throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.82 ERA. 

Last year New York averaged 4.20 RPG, which ranked it 22nd overall.

The Rays counters with Chris Archer, who also comes in off a sparkling spring, posting 17 K’s in 13.2 innings with a 1.98 ERA. Like his counterpart, he’s also had tremendous success against his opponent today, owner of a 2.63 ERA along with a 0.92 WHIP lifetime against the Yanks.

Tampa averaged 4.15 RPG last season, ranked 24th. 

Archer struggled to open the 2016 campaign and while he’d recover and finish with an overall decent ERA and WHIP, he was never really able to shake the slow start. A year later and the Rays’ ace looks fully prepared to open the season on a high note.

Tanaka is going to have another big year, but I think these starters a “wash.” I’ll give the slight nod to the hungry Rays with their home field advantage. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Fan Appreciation ROUT is on the Chicago Cubs (8:08 EST).

With a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series, I’m expecting the Cubs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

LA led this series 2-1, but has been blown out in back-to-back losses. The momentum has now clearly swung in favor of Chicago. 

The Dodgers turn to ace Clayton Kershaw, who is 2-0 with one save, a 3.72 ERA and a 1.086 WHIP over 19.1 innings of work in the playoffs. He’s 6-3 with a 1.93 ERA in nine career starts against Chicago.

Kyle Hendricks gets the call for the home side, he’s 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over nine innings in the playoffs. He’s 2-2 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.829 WHIP over 25.1 lifetime innings against the Dodgers (also note that he’s 15-7 with a 2.27 ERA over 38 career starts at Wrigley).

I’ll point out that LA is just 5-12 in its last 17 playoff road games, while Chicago is 4-1 in Hendricks’ last five starts with five days of rest.

I think Hendricks can match Kershaw today and the difference will come at the plate. Chicago has its swagger back after back-to-back slug-fest victories and I look for that trend to carry over tonight. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* FAN APPRECIATION ROUT is on the Chicago Cubs (8:08 EST).

With their backs against the wall, I look for the Cubs to rebound in Game 4 and find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

I think veteran experience wins out over the youth movement.

The Cubs send 37 year old John Lackey to the hill, while the Dodgers counter with 20 year old Julio Urias, set to become the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game.

Urias faced Chicago on the road on June 2nd and would give up six runs off eight hits over five innings. On August 27th he struck out eight Cubs and gave up six hits over six innings in the victory. 

Lackey has made more postseason starts than any active pitcher today, going 8-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 24 playoff appearances. Lackey faced the Dodgers in Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS while with the Cardinals and would give up one run over seven innings in the 3-1 victory. He’s also 6-3 with a 1.75 ERA in 12 regular-season games against LA.

I’m giving Lackey the slight nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors today, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting Cubbies will bounce back in Game 3 and take full advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound.

The last time Cubs’ pitcher Jake Arrieta was at Dodger Stadium, he’d no hit the Dodgers. Arrieta is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in the postseason and he has in fact held LA scoreless over his last two against it, going seven shutout innings on May 31st at Wrigley. 

Arrieta gave up two runs over six innings against the Giants in Game 3 of the NLDS. 

The home side counters with Rich Hill (0-1, 6.43 ERA) who is 0-2 in three career playoff starts. In his last outing he worked 2 2/3’s innings, giving up a run on three hits in his team’s eventual 4-3 win over Washington in Game 5 of the NLDS. 

In Game 2 of the NLDS though, Hill suffered the loss, giving up four runs off six hits over 4 1/3’s innings.

I’ll point out that Chicago is 5-1 (+3.9 units) after getting shutout, while LA is 8-13 (-10.4 units) this season when playing with a day off. 

I think we’re getting great value on Arrieta, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NLCS Game 2 Side Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST).

Chicago pulled away for a convincing 8-4 win in Game 1 of the NLCS and while runs will likely be at more of a premium tonight, I’m banking on the home side to deliver the goods once again.

This will be the fourth time in their seven postseason games that Clayton Kershaw has taken the mound for the Dodgers. Kershaw was last seen making seven pitches to help clinch Game 5 of the NLDS against Washington just three nights ago. 

Kyle Hendricks gets the call for the home side. Hendricks took a comeback line drive in the forearm in Game 2 of the NLDS, forcing him to leave early, but he’s been cleared to play and has shown no ill effects at all. Note that he led the NL with a 2.13 ERA: “Anytime something happens to your arm, your throwing arm, it's not ideal," Hendricks assessed earlier in the week. "Once X-rays were negative, I felt a lot better about it. I knew it was going to be a bad bruise type of thing, get through a couple days and it wouldn't be a problem."

Kershaw’s regular season was cut short due to injury, but he still finished 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA. The big southpaw would struggle against Washington though, allowing 15 hits and eight earned runs as the Nats hit .294 against him. Over his last seven playoff games, he’s 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA. 

Hendricks facd the Dodgers on June 2nd and gave up two runs over eight innings to go along with six K’s. 

I think Hendricks and the hard-hitting home side offer tremendous value in Game 2.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALCS Game 2 SIDE WINNER is on the Toronto Blue Jays (4:05 EST).

I had a play on the Jays yesterday and while that didn’t turn out the way I had hoped, I do think that the visitors will bounce back in Game 2.

The Tribe held on for a 2-0 win in Game 1. Francisco Lindor hit a two-run shot in the sixth inning. 

Toronto sends JA Happ to the hill, he was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 195 innings of work this year. Happ shut down the Rangers in the ALDS, giving up one run over five innings of work. The Jays had plenty of hits yesterday, it was just one of those nights where runners weren’t properly aligned to capitazlie. 

The Jays face Josh Tomlin, who earned a win in Game 3 of the ALDS. Tomlin though was roughed up by the Jays this year, giving up seven runs over 10.1 innings spanning two starts. 

But other than the two run homer from Lindor, the Indians looked weak at the plate as well. 

Ultimately I think Happ is the superior starter. Bauer only lasted 4.2 innings against Boston and I don’t think a similar effort is going to get the job done against this dangerous Toronto line-up. Happ has consistently proven himself in these spots and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALCS Game 1 Side Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:05 EST).

Both teams come in with plenty of momentum, but I think this one favors the visitors.

Toronto comes in off a sweep of the Rangers, while Cleveland comes in off a sweep of the Red Sox.

The Blue Jays’ bats came alive in the win over Texas, outscoring the Rangers 22-10. Slugger Josh Donaldson is batting .500 so far in the playoffs with five runs scored and three RBI’s. Edwin Encarnacion is 6 for 16 with three home runs and seven RBI’s. Jose Bautista has two dingers and seven RBI’s. Closer Roberto Osuna went 1-0 with a save. Overall the Blue Jays are very healthy, with only reliever Joaquin Benoit unlikely able to play.

Somehow Cleveland managed to rout the Red Sox, even without the services of top pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, both of who will also be unavailable for this series. 

The visitors send Marco Estrada to the hill, in Game 1 of the ALDS he’d give up just one earned run over 8.1 innings of work.

The home side counters with Corey Kluber, he was also outstanding in Game 1 of his ALDS, holding the Red Sox scoreless over seven innings of work. 

I think the value is simply too good to turn down on the undervauled visitors. Look for Toronto’s big bats to be the difference again tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (9:30 EST).

I like the Giants to stave off elimination for at least one more game with their ace on the mound tonight.

The Cubs took Game 1, 1-0 on Friday and followed that up with a 5-2 win on Saturday. 

It’s now time for Madison Bumgarner to shine, he’s 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 226.2 innings of work this year. Bumgarner was in vintage form in Wednesday’s NL Wild card game, going the distance and tossing a shutout by allowing four hits with two walks and six K’s in the 3-0 win over the Mets. 

Bumgarner has plenty of success against the Cubs as well, going 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 12 starts covering 80 innings against them. Also note tha the’s 48-30 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.072 WHIP lifetime at AT&T Park.

It certainly isn’t going to be an easy victory though in having to face Jake Arrieta, who finished 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.084 WHIP. He struggled over his last six starts though, going 2-3 down the stretch, most recently getting rocked for seven runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on September 28th. Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA in San Francisco.

I think Bumgarner has the slight edge on the mound tonight and believe that the home side still has some fight left in it. I’m prediciting a decisive Game 3 victory, play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ALDS FAN APPRECIATION SPECIAL is on the Cleveland Indians (8:00 EST).

It’s Game 1 of this ALDS and I think the home side offers great value in this spot.

Cleveland plays with a little revenge here as well after Boston took four of six in the season series.

Rick Porcello gets the call for the visitors, he was 22-4 to go along with a 3.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this year. It was the veteran’s best regular season ever, but in my opinion he’s primed for a big letdown in the playoffs. Note that many of the Indians’ big bats have excelled against Porcello, including Jason Kipnis who is 10 of 31, Mike Napoli who is 6 for 18 and Carlos Santana who is 12 for 33 with three home runs.

The home side counters with Trevor Bauer, who finished a 4.26 ERA and 1.31 WHIP and an overall 12-8 record. Bauer has had mixed success against the Red Sox throughout his career, looking brilliant at times and pretty horrible in others. He’ll be looking to avoid any big mistakes against Boston slugger David Ortiz, who is 4 for 5 off him.

Porcello had a great regular season, but I don’t think he’s that much better than Bauer and certainly he’s at a disadvantage in throwing on the road to open this series. The Tribes’ offense finished just behind Boston’s, so that area is also a “wash” for me.

With all things being equal, the value falls onto the home dog in my professional opinion. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Senior Circuit Wild Card Game Winner is on the New York Mets (8:00 EST).

The winner of this wild card will advance to face the Cubs in the NLDS. 

New York took four of seven in the regular season series, including winning two of three at home.

The Giants backed their way into the postseason, struggling down the stretch, but managing to win their final four games to earn this chance. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner, who is 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP over 226.2 innings of work. Bumgarner though, like his team, struggled after the All Star break, going 5-5 with a pedestrian 3.80 ERA. 

The home side counters with ace Noah Syndergaard, who finished 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.149 WHIP and 218 K’s over 183.2 innings of work this season. The Mets clinched their spot on Saturday, so were able to rest Syndergaard for this important start. He enters this one off a gem in his regular season finale, allowing one run with no walks to go along with eight K’s against Miami on Tuesday. Syndergaard is just 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA spanning 19.2 innings against San Francisco lifetime, but note that he’s 13-8 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.976 WHIP over 181.1 innings all time at Citi Field.

Check out this amazing stat: New York is 6-1 in its last seven against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. 

I think the Mets are the correct call, this one definitely favors the home side. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* WILD CARD BLOWOUT is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:00 EST).

Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) faces off against Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37) in the American League Wildcard game. These teams played 19 times this year and Toronto came out on top 10-9. 

Stroman looks to bounce back after Baltimore roughed him up for our runs over seven innings last Thursday. Note though, despite going 0-5 in six September starts, he’d finish the month with a highly respectable 3.41 ERA. If Stroman falters, then the Jays will immediately go to southpaw Francisco Liriano and/or Marco Estrada. 

For the most part Tillman exceeded expectations this season and he excelled against the Blue Jays, going 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts, posting a 2.38 ERA in two outings at the Rogers Centre. But Tillman is poised for regression, Toronto’s big bats have dominated this matchup historically, as he’s 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA in 24 career matchups with the Jays and just 2-6 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts north of the border. And in four matchups against Toronto last year, Tillman was 0-4 with a deplorable 11.72 ERA. 

Note that Toronto was 6-4 against Baltimore at home and would also have a significant scoring advantage in the season series, 97-81. 

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I’m giving Stroman the slight nod in this matchup due to the home field advantage in this pressure packed scenario. And I’ll give the Jays the nod at the plate as well as they’ve already proven to be the more proficient line-up in these head-to-head matchups. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Both teams enter this series off victories, but I think this one favors Madison Bumgarner and the Giants.

The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (12-5, 2.05 ERA) who has made just five starts since returning from injury and owns a 1.53 ERA in that span. His last start was skipped over because of a blister issue. 

Bumgarner (14-9, 2.71) comes in off a rare dud, allowing five runs off four hits in a fortunate no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. He owns a 1.02 WHIP this season to go along with 246 K’s in 219.1 innings of work. 

The big southpaw has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here though as he’s 8-4 with a highly respectable 2.04 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

The Dodgers are still in a race with Washington for home field advantage in the NLDS, but they’ve already locked down their position in the postseason. The Giants though are in a dog-fight with the Mets and the Cards for the final wild card position. 

LA has little to play for in this series, while it’s a do-or-die scenario for San Francisco. Considering the massive motivational factors working in favor of the home side in this one, I do indeed feel this is a fantastic price. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

A couple of veteran hurlers which have endured plenty of ups-and-downs this season will look to close with one last victory. However, I think Jose Quintana has the advantage over his counterpart Chris Archer today.

Archer (8-19, 4.02 ERA) gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 2-1 loss to Boston on Friday. To be fair, Archer looked pretty good, he was simply letdown by his offense. After a disastrous first half, Archer has really turned things around in the second, but if he’s had one glaring weakness it’s clearly been his play on the road as he’s a poor 5-9 with a 5.54 ERA away from friendly confines.

Quintana (13-11, 3.21) also comes in off a strong outing, giving up one run over six innings in an 8-1 victory over the Indians on Saturday. Quintana now has a chance to close the season with the best ERA of his career and a date at home is just what the doctor ordered as he’s 7-4 with a very respectable 2.76 ERA in Chicago this year.

I think Quintana will be razor focused today and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Rob Zastryzny (1-0, 1.46 ERA) who is making a “bullpen” start as the Cubs get their rotation properly aligned for the postseason. 

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (12-8, 4.37) who was letdown by his defense in his last start. Nova would ultimately allows six runs (three earned), off eight hits over four innings to the Nats on Saturday. Since getting dealt to the Pirates from New York though, the hard-throwing right-hander has allowed just three walks in 59.1 innings of work. 

The Pirates won’t be going to the postseason this year, but with one last chance to impress in front of the home town crowd, I think Nova outduels his counterpart and Pittsburgh does just enough to secure a victory this evening against this disinterested Cubs side. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST).

LA looks to hit the ground running as it enters the postseason: "It's about playing good baseball," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts assessed last night. "Not to get complacent and lose that edge. I have been on teams that continued to keep that momentum and I've been on teams that went the other way," Roberts finished.

LA fell 7-1 to the Padres in the opener, so will be eager to atone tonight. 

The home side sends Luis Perdomo (8-10, 5.59 ERA) to the hill, over his last 15 starts he’s gone 6-8 with a 3.90 ERA.

The visitors counter with Jose De Leon (2-0, 5.52), who comes off a poor outing against the Diamondbacks on September 18th, giving up six runs over just 3 2/3’s innings. De Leon picked up his first major league win against San Diego on September 4th though, striking out nine and walking no one. 

LA still has a shot at grabbing home field advantage against the Nationals, so I’m laying the price tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Braves last night and after going down 6-0, the home side managed to rally for the come from behind 7-6 win. I don’t think Atlanta will need to pull off something of that magnitude to secure the victory tonight though.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Adam Morgan (2-10, 5.57) who comes in off a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday, allowing three runs off five hits over five innings of work. Note that Morgan has been particularly inept on the road this year, going 2-4 with a ballooned 5.80 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (8-5, 4.41) who returns after a short stint on the DL. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. 

Philadelphia’s bullpen has posted a deplorable 10.13 ERA since mid September. I’m laying the price on the home side in this one.

Good luck…Larry 

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Orioles yesterday and they’d come up short. While Chris Tillman has struggled at times this year, I still think he has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart. I’m going to back the visitors tonight as they look to exact a little revenge. 

Toronto now has a two game lead over Baltimore and each has five games left to go in the regular season. Detroit is just one game back of the Orioles for the second wild-card spot, so that stakes couldn’t be higher for Baltimore today.

Liriano (8-13, 4.88 ERA) is a poor 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA in eight career starts against Baltimore.

Tillman (16-6, 3.84) has struggled with the Jays in the past, but he’s been decent this year, going 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in three starts. And note that Tillman has been at his best on the road this year as well, going 8-3 with a respectable 3.06 ERA.

As mentioned off the top, while far from perfect, I think Tillman is the correct call in this matchup as I have zero faith in Liriano. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors veteran Ricky Nolsaco and the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Mengden (2-8, 5.74 ERA) who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to Houston on Wednesday. Mengden has shown flashes of brilliance, but has for the most part struggled in his rookie season, note the he owns a poor 1.54 WHIP and 32 walks versus 70 K’s over 69 innings of work. 

Nolasco (7-14, 4.60) brings a 16 2/3’s innings scoreless streak into this contest. In fact since the end of August Nolasco has been pretty much untouchable, giving up just 22 hits and only six walks over 35 innings of work while posting 27 K’s and a 1.80 ERA while holding the opposition to a .182 average over that span.

Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when trying to judge starting pitching and in my opinion, Nolasco has a huge advantage today. He’s looking to close the season strong and to lock up a job in 2017. I think he continues his recent form and all things considered, this is definitely a great price in this matchup. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, which swings the value onto the home side in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (11-14, 3.75 ERA) who managed a win over the White Sox on Wednesday despite serving up three home runs. All were fortunately of the “solo” variety. In the end he’d give up three runs off six hits over seven innings of work. Eickhoff though has been steadily regressing, note that he’d been rocked for four home runs in his previous start. Also note that Eickhoff is just 5-7 with a 4.13 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (6-10, 3.10) who went seven innings against the Mets on Tuesday, giving up one run off five hits. Clearly Teheran’s win/loss record is not indicative of how the hard-throwing right-hander has performed this year. He’ll now look to improve upon his 3.44 ERA home record.

It’s Teheran’s second to last start of the year and I think the veteran makes the most of it today and easily outduels his volatile 2nd year counterpart. Play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:07 EST).

The Jays come off a 7-5 loss to the Yanks and now welcome to town a hungry Orioles team. It’s a great time to pull the trigger on an underdog selection, as I think Baltimore finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (8-11, 3.57 ERA), whose last start was skipped over due to a minor injury. He’s been cleared to go today. He’s coming off one great performance against the Red Sox, holding them scoreless over eight innings, before then getting shelled for five runs over seven frames by Boston a week later. 

Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 3.12) gets the call for the home side, he most recently struck out five over five innings in a no decision last Wednesday. Sanchez owns a rather predestrian 3.93 ERA at home, compared to his 2.56 mark on the road. Also note that in three starts this month, Sanchez has yet to record a decision, while posting a poor 5.40 ERA. 

Only one game seperates these teams for the first wild-card spot. Each team has six games left. To say this series is a big one is an understatement obviously. Toronto though is suddenly having to deal with some injury issues, as second baseman Devon Travis left yesterday’s game in the sixth with a shoulder issue, while Joaquin Benoit suffered a calf injury in the second of two bench clearing brawls. 

Before the dud to the hard-hitting Red Sox in his last outing, Gausman has put together a string of five straight quality starts. 

Gausman has struggled against Toronto in the past and Sanchez has had plenty of success throughout his career against Baltimore, but past success or failure guarantees nothing in the future. Sometimes the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching is “recent performance.” Despite his impressive home record, I’m giving Gausman the nod in this matchup over Sanchez, who is in new territory right now as far as his innings worked in a season. Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (8:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Drew Smyly and the Rays.

Smyly (7-11, 4.86 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Yanks on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings. He only needed 87 pitches and despite receiving an unfortunate no-decision, he’s won five straight decisions. 

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (5-18, 5.98) who was rocked for seven runs (six earned) off nine hits and three walks while over 5.1 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Tuesday. Shields has struggled in every facet this season.

“Recent performance” is often the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching and in this case, I’m giving Smyly the big nod in that department. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price. Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

One of these pitchers has picked up the pace to end the season, wihle the other has struggled with consistency all year long and enters off a dud. 

The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.04 ERA), who was blasted for six runs (five earned) off eight hits and a walk over just 3.1 innings in the eventual setback to Toronto on Tuesday. Iwakuma had posted three straight quality starts, but that string was abruptly halted. He failed to complete four innings for the thrid time in his last 11 starts. 

The home side counters with Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.61) who comes in off a gem against Oakland on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits while striking out five over six innings in the eventual victory. McHugh has now allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts and has 166 K’s in 170 innings of work. Also note that he’s a very respectable 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year.

I am focusing completely on the starting pitchers for this selection. I think Iwakuma’s consistency issues plague him again tonight, while McHugh’s momentum carries over. All things considered, we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

It’s awful to think about, but as the Marlins return to the ballpark for the first time since the death of Jose Fernandez, I think their heads and hearts will be distracted, leaving the back door open for the Mets to secure the victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Bartolo Colon (14-7, 3.12 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Atlanta on Wednesday, giving up two runs over seven innings with no walks and six K’s. Colon has been at his best over the last month, going 4-0 with a tiny 2.35 ERA over his last seven trips to the hill. Note that Colon has been especially good on the road, going 8-4 with a 3.12 ERA. 

The home side counters with Adam Conley (8-6, 3.94) who will make his first start since returning from the DL. Conley was scheduled to pitch yesterday against the Braves, but with the cancellation his start was pushed back until tonight. For the most part Conley has been solid this year, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the combination of the mental stress of dealing with the Fernandez death, coupled with his first start back from injury, make this a tough matchup for him tonight.

New York is in a dog fight for the final wild card spot, leading San Fran by one game and St. Louis by 1.5. Miami is 4.5 games back with seven to play. I like Colon and the Mets to find a way to get the job done tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (7:10 EST).

After fallling 10-6 in yesterday’s series opener, I expect the home side to bounce back in fine fashion this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to the oft-maligned Jhoulys Chacin (5-8, 5.29 ERA) who is poised for a big letdown here after coming off his best start of the year, holding Texas to one run off six hits over five innings. For the most part Chacin has been a disaster this season though and note that he’s been particularly inept on the raod, just 2-6 with a 6.32 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Brad Peacock (0-0, 2.86) who gave up two runs off three hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the A’s on Monday. Peacock has now allowed just four runs over his last 15 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he owns a 2.00 ERA at home.

The Astros are still in the playoff hunt and will be looking for immediate redemption after last night’s “brain fart.” While Peacock doesn’t instill a ton of confidence, I’m still giving him the big nod over his volatile counterpart. I’m laying the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST).

I like the visitors to bounce back tonight after yesterday’s defeat.

The White Sox hand the ball to Jose Quintana (12-11, 3.26 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing six runs off ten hits over four innings in the setback. Quintana has struggled a bit of late, but note that he’s still an impressive 6-4 with a 2.98 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The home side counters with Cody Anderson (2-4, 6.24) who was recalled from Triple A in early September. He makes the start today in place of the injured Carlos Carrasco. Anderson hasn’t thrown more than 35 pitches in any appearance at any level since July.

No need to overthink this one, I’m going to give Quintana the huge nod in this matchup and in my professional opinion, this is indeed fantastic line value. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (6:10 EST).

The Red Sox are on a roll and I think that momentum gets carried over into this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (21-4, 3.08 ERA) who comes off a complete game against the Orioles on Monday, giving up two runs off four hits with seven K’s with no walks in the victory. He’d go on to throw only 89 pitches in the impressive effort, 65 for strikes. Porcello has now posted 11 straight quality outings and has a tiny 2.23 ERA and 66:5 K/W ratio over that stretch. Note that he’s 8-3 with 3.25 ERA on the road and is an even better 14-4 with a 2.81 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Andriese (8-7, 4.41) who also comes in off a decent outing, holding Baltimore to two runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in a victory on Saturday. Andriese though has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this season and note that home field advantage has been anything but for the second year pro as he sports a poor 3-4, 4.30 ERA in Tampa Bay and is only 3-5 with a ballooned 5.18 ERA in all “night” games.

For this pick I’m concentrating solely on the starting pitching and in this case, I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Porcello is in the hunt for the AL Cy Young award and I think he posts another big effort. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST).

This is an important series for Seattle, which sits two games back for the second AL wild-card spot: “We're not dead," M’s manager Scott Servais said last night. "We need help. And we need to play good ball in Minnesota. That's a team I don't take lightly. They handed us our lunch here (in Seattle) earlier in the year. They've got a lot of young players that play loose and free, and that's how we've got to play."

Minnesota is appraoching a 100-loss season and clearly has nothing to play for. It has a chance to play “spoiler” obviously, but it sure didn’t look like it had any fight left in it after getting swept by Detroit in its last series. 

James Paxton (4-7, 3.88 ERA) has just one victory in his past eight starts, but has posted a respectable 3.51 ERA in that stretch. He’s faced Minnesota once in his career and would give up one run over 4 2/3’s innings of work.

The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (6-10, 5.10) who has just one win in his past six starts while compiling a poor 5.66 ERA in that span. 

I think Minnesota’s younger players get overwhelmed by another team thick in the playoff hunt and expect the hungry visitors to take full advantage. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST).

The Giants lost their finale with the Dodgers last night, but I think San Francisco bounces back in what I believe to be a very favorable matchup for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (11-10, 3.97 ERA), who comes in off a gem against St. Louis on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits and four walks to go along with four K’s over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Note that Samardzija has consistently been at this best in this spot all year, going a very respectable 9-7 with a 3.76 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with the volatile Christian Friedrich (5-10, 4.78) who was shelled for four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings against Colorado on Friday. Friedrich has shown less consitency than Samardzija this year, note he’s a sub-par 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.73 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date.

San Francisco was inexplicably swept by the visiting Padres from Sept 12-14th, so it’ll be out for some revenge tonight. I’m giving Samardzija the nod in this matchup and everything else does indeed point to San Francisco as the correct call in the opener of this three game set.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I’m expecting the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat and feel that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ryan Vogelsong (3-5, 4.87 ERA) who was shelled for four earned runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings against Cincinnati on Friday. The 39-year old has now given up five or more runs in each of his last four starts.

Milwaukee counters with Chase Anderson (8-11, 4.47) who comes in off a gem versus the hard-hitting Cubbies on Friday, giving up two earned runs off five hits over six innings of work. Anderson comes in with considerable momentum, as he’s given up just two earned runs over his last three starts combined. 

The third-year pro has also allowed no more than three earned runs in any start since late June. 

“Recent performance” is often the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching and in this case, I Anderson has a huge advantage. The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the talent discrepancy between these two and it’s time to make them pay, play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

I had a play on Boston yesterday and I think the surging visitors will find a way to get the job done here as well.

David Price (16-8, 3.91 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox, he comes in off his first dud in quite some time, receiving a no-decision against the Yanks on Saturday after giving up five earned runs off nine hits over six innings, also striking out seven. He’d also induce 12 swinging strikes. There’s no need to hit the panic button if you’re a Red Sox fan though I don’t think, Price has been consistent over the last half of the season and came into that contest with victories in his last seven decisions (all quality outings). Note that he’s 7-5 with a very respectable 3.59 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.72) who gave up three runs off four hits over five innings in a setback to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Note that he owns a rather pedestrian 4.37 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

Boston controls its own destiny, its seven game win streak means that it has a five-game lead over the Blue Jays and a six-game lead over Baltimore in the AL East.

With only ten games left in the regular season, the Red Sox will look to keep the momentum roliing. Price is already 2-1 against the Orioles this year and Baltimore has mustered only five runs over the first three games of this series.

I’m banking on Boston’s bats to stay sharp and for Price to do just enough to outduel Tillman. Lay the price on Price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:10 EST).

Despite his struggles this year, I think that Zack Greinke should be a much bigger favorite in this matchup. Time to make the oddsmakers pay for their mistake!

Greinke (12-7, 4.42) comes in off a loss to the Dodgers on Friday, giving up three runs (one earned) off four hits and over six innings. Greinke has struggled with command this season, but note that he’s been consistent on the road, going 7-2 with a 4.01 ERA.

The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (8-9, 5.68) who for the most part has struggled in every respect this year. Note that home field advantage has been anything but for the rookie as well as he’s just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.41 ERA in San Diego thus far.

The ballpark in San Diego is one that favors the pitcher, but that’s not been the case for Perdomo. Greinke has a distinct advantage as he’s been consistently at his best while away from friendly confines this year. I expect these strong pitching trends to continue, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

After taking four straight from the Yanks, the surging Red Sox will now look to complete the three-game sweep of the Orioles.

With Toronto having already taken two of three from Seattle, the Orioles’ chances in the division are all but done. I’m not predicting any sort of a revenge scenario today as I think the deflated home side is ripe for the picking.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (7-10, 5.20 ERA) who will look to keep the momentum rolling after allowing two runs off seven hits and two walks in a 7-4 victory over New York on Friday. Buchholz has been consistently inconsistent all year, but he’s been better of late, posting a 4.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last couple of months, compared to 5.91 and 1.49 respectively over the first half of the season.

The home side counters with Ubaldo Jimenez (7-11, 5.94), who like Buchholz, has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned this year. After tossing three straight quality starts, he most recently was shelled for four runs on Friday. 

Note that home field advantage has been anything but for Jimenez this season as well, posting a deplorable 6.27 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

And that’s music to this potent Red Sox line-up, which will continue to push hard to create as much distance as possible. All signs point to another lop-sided destruction, great value on the visitors again tonight. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (3:40 EST).

As far as Toronto and its contingent of Canadian fans are concerned, it’s time to break out the brooms and sweep-it-up in the Pacific Northwest this afternoon.

Thousands of fans from the Vancouver area of British Columbia have flocked down to Seattle to support the Blue Jays in this important series, and the visitors haven’t disappointed by posting two straight victories.

I’ve played Toronto in both games and I think the surging Jays will complete the sweep this afternoon.

Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 3.17 ERA) gets the call for Toronto, whose last start was skipped over because of a blister issue that he suffered in a loss to Boston ten days ago. Duds like that have been few and far between for Sanchez this season though, note that he’s 8-1 with a tiny 2.62 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (11-6, 3.79) who gave up six runs off eight hits, including two dingers, over 4.1 innings in a loss to Houston on Friday. It was the second time in three starts this month that he’s allowed multiple homers. “The King” has now been shelled for at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts. Note that his 1.2 HR/9, 3.9 W/9 and 7.3 K/9 are all career worsts.

Toronto’s big bats woke up yesterday and that’s bad news for the volatile Hernandez. Sanchez gets a big nod today against the offensively challenged Mariners and in my opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (3:35 EST).

I had a pick on the Astros yesterday and I think the playoff hopeful visitors will find a way to take the finale of this series as well, in what sets up to be another very favorable matchup for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Collin McHugh (11-10, 4.66 ERA), who is surging to the finish line after a mediocre first 3/4’s of the season. Most recently he fired seven shutout innings in a 6-0 win over Seattle on Friday, giving up two hits and striking out six. Over his last four starts he’s gone 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. 

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (2-7, 5.68), who is poised for a letdown after his best start of his pro career, going seven shutout innings in a 14-5 win over Kansas City on Thursday. Mengden was brutal over his first few starts and has seemingly turned things around, however I think immediate regression is inevitable and note that he’s 0-6 with a deplorable 6.95 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I don’t think that the oddsmakers are giving McHugh enough respect in this matchup, considering his recent form, but also his past success in this position, as note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in eight career matchups with Oakland. 

He’s also an amazing 10-0 with a very respectable 3.08 ERA in his last 12 starts in the month of September since 2014 (is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA this year). 

I think the writing is on the wall and a no-doubt, wire-to-wire victory is in the cards. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:10 EST).

I had a play on Toronto as a slight dog yesterday. I like the hard-hitting visitors today as well as slight favs.

Toronto hands the ball to ace JA Happ (19-4, 3.27 ERA), who looks to earn his 20th win of the season tonight. Happ most recently earned his 19th victory of the 2016 campaign by giving up two runs (one earned) off three hits over six innings against the Angels on Thursday. Happ’s been far from perfect this year, but the crafty veteran continues to get the job done. Note that he’s 8-2 with a 3.46 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (16-11, 3.87), who has won his last two starts after a brutal month of August. 

Iwakuma has gotten better as the season has progressed, but I’m giving the slight nod to Happ in this spot, as his long-term consistency in these situations will prove to be the the difference. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price on Toronto again tonight.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

I like the Astros to build off yesterday’s 4-3 win as they continue their hunt for a wild card spot.

The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (3-4, 4.71 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Texas on Wednesday, allowing three runs off five hits and two walks over seven innings. The rookie has now posted two straight quality outings and if history is any precedence, then Musgrove has to be loving his chances today as when he faced Oakland back on August 29th, he’d hold it scoreless over six innings of work.

The home side counters with the volatile Sean Manaea (6-9, 4.23), who makes his second start off the 15 day DL. Manaea has been better at home (3.26 ERA) than on the road (5.77), but note that he’s struggled in all “night” contests, going just 5-7 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA.

Houston clinched a wild card spot on the final day of the regular season last year. The Astros sit three games behind the Jays and Orioles for the final spot in 2016, meaning that the team will need to string wins together immediately if it has any real shot at contention. 

I think Musgrove has the advantage over Manaea and look for the hungry visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST).

Despite facing Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez, I think Washington bounces back after yesterday’s 4-3 setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA), who could arguably be called the staff’s “ace” this year. Roark has exceeded expectations and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 7-3, 3.09 ERA record on the road thus far.

Fernandez (15-8, 2.99) picked up a win despite not being his sharpest last time out, allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over seven innings against Atlanta on Wednesday. 

For arguments sake, let’s call the starters a “wash.” 

The visitors are the much more motivated side today though. Miami has been all but eliminated from post-season contention, with three other team’s ahead of it for the final wild card spot. Washington is eight games ahead of the Mets in the NL East, but the Nats have lost three straight and will be eager to stop the bleeding sooner rather than later.

Washington is headed to the postseason, but desperately wants to be “firing on all cylinders” when it does. I like Roark to match Fernandez and for the visitors to steal this one late, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:10 EST).

Two teams fighting for a playoff spot collide on Monday night and I think that the hard-hitting Jays are the correct call in this one.

Toronto holds a two-game lead over Seattle in the AL wild-card standings. With a chance to put the Mariners’ hopes to rest, I think the Blue Jays answer the call in this series. 

The home side sends Taijuan Walker to the hill, he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. Despite back-to-back decent starts, note that Walker owns a pedestrian 4-5, 4.31 ERA at home this year.

The visitors counter with Marco Estrada (8-9, 3.78) who looks to get back on track after a couple of shaky outings. Estrada though has done very well in this spot all season, going 5-2 with a respectable 3.81 ERA on the road thus far.

Seattle managed to beat the Astros yesterday, but has been consistently inconsistent at the plate. Toronto dropped two of three in LA over the weekend, but I think bounces back here in what I feel to be a very favorable matchup. Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:40 EST).

I’ve said it many times before, that ultimately I feel that MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Carlos Martinez and the Cards should in fact be much larger favs.

Martinez (14-8, 3.15 ERA) has been better than St. Louis could have possibly asked for this year and has arguably become the team’s “ace.” Note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all season as well, going 8-4 with a 3.10 ERA in all “night” games and an even better 8-1 with a 2.35 ERA on the road. 

Rookie Tyler Anderson (5-5, 3.65) gets the nod for the home side and he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. Most recently he gave up six runs off nine hits over just 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. It was the sixth time in 17 starts that he’s allowed eight hits or more.

St. Louis trails San Francisco by one game in the hunt for the second wild card spot, so this is a game it can ill afford to “look past.” The Rockies on the other hand come off a very mentally satisfying three-game sweep of the Padres and are now primed for a classic letdown.

All things considered, I think this is a fantastic price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST).

The Royals smashed the White Sox 10-3 yesterday and I’m expecting the defending champs to carry that momentum over into the finale of this series.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Carlos Rodon (7-9, 4.04 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits and three walks over five innings in a setback to the Indians on Wednesday. Rodon has looked pretty good at times this year, but also pretty horrible in others. Note that he’s a sub-par 5-7 with a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The home side counters with Yordano Ventura (10-11, 4.42) who comes in off a hard-fought loss on Friday, giving up four earned runs off ten hits over seven innings of work. Ventura looks to break into the win column today and improve upon his 6-4, 4.48 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” The difference today is at the plate. Kansas City now looks to sweep this series and I think its red hot run with the big bats continues. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price on the Royals this afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (4:10 EST).

I like the visitors to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory, pulling even with the M’s in the AL wild-card race and with their sights now set on Toronto and Baltimore.

The Astros hand the ball to Doug Fister (12-11, 4.17 ERA) who has admittedly struggled of late. He’ll benefit greatly though from a Mariners line-up which has managed just one run in the first two games of this series.

Seattle counters with Ariel Miranda (4-1, 4.10), who has won each of his last three starts. Note though that the Mariners have struggled in this position all year, going just 10-14 (-6.4 units) at home with a money line in the -100 to -125 range.

And note that Houston has excelled in this spot, going 10-8 (+3.6 units) as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range. 

I think Fister gets back on track against his former team and the Astros take advantage of the M’s anemic line-up. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST).

I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s 10-4 setback and think that Dan Straily offers great value in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (12-6, 4.03 ERA), who has thrown ridiculously well since being acquired from the Yanks, going 5-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven starts. Is this turn-around sustainable over the long-term? I think the answer is clearly “no.” Nova has been great for his new team, but regression is imminent in my professional opinion and despite the recent turn-around, note that he owns a poor 5.45 ERA on the road this season.

Straily (12-8, 3.81) has for the most part been a revelation for the Reds as well this year and this is a spot in which he’s excelled in, going a near-perfect 7-1 with a 2.80 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I think Nova’s road struggles continue here and that Straily’s long-term and proven success at home ultimately proves to be the difference in the end. Great opportunity to pull the trigger on this slight home dog, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (9:05 EST).

Analysis posted at least 3 hours before game time.

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:05 EST).

The Jays finally got off the schneid with a much needed victory after losing two straight at home to the lowly Rays and I think the hungry visitors will keep the momentum rolling this evening as well.

The visitors hand the ball to RA Dickey (9-14, 4.60 ERA) who returns to the rotation out of necessity as ace Aaron Sanchez is dealing with a blister. Dickey was supposed to be used in relief coming down the stretch, but he’ll look to earn another elusive victory and improve upon his very respectable 3.81 ERA road mark.

The home side counters with the equally as volatile Jered Weaver (11-11, 5.25) who comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers on Sunday, allowing two runs off four hits over 6.2 innings of work, lucky to escape with the stat line he did as both runs came off long-balls. Home runs have been a problem for Weaver this year, he’s given up 35 so far, the most in his career. 

Clearly that’s bad news facing the hard-hitting Jays’ lineup. Note that Weaver owns a poor 5.05 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

For arguments sake, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” Clearly Toronto has the advantage at the plate, as LA is limping to the finish line, depleted in so many different areas, I can’t see it putting up much of a fight tonight. Play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Dodgers (9:40 EST).

I think LA will bounce back tonight after yesterday’s defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (14-9, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off a loss despite a decent showing, giving up three runs off eight hits and a walk over six innings to Miami on Sunday. In his last seven outings he’s gone 5-2 with a very respectable 3.46 ERA. Also note that he’s 12-7 with a 3.35 ERA in all night games and 8-4 with a 3.26 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Zack Greinke (12-6, 4.54), who gave up three runs off six hits and four walks over six innings in a 5-3 loss to San Francisco on Sunday. The four walks were a sesaon high. It was a decent performance, but he was fresh off his worst outing of the year. Greinke has had a couple of gems this season, but has for the most part he’s been a big letdown for the Diamondbacks. Note that he owns a poor 5.08 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Maeda has been rock solid on the road and I expect that trend to carry over here. Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (8:15 EST).

The Royals come in off four straight deflating losses in a row to the lowly A’s, including an 8-0 shutout on Wednesday and a 14-5 beatdown on Thursday. And now here comes the crafty Chris Sale and the White Sox looking to deliver the knock out blow. In my professional opinion, this is indeed great line value today.

Sale (15-8, 3.03 ERA) lost 2-0 to the Royals on Sunday in Chicago and looks to get his revenge on a team that was just outscored 43-12 in four games. Note that Sale is among the best in the AL with 205 K’s, 15 victories, 201 2/3’s innings, .220 opponents batting average, 2.55 road ERA and 9.1 K’s per nine innings. 

The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (11-9, 3.62) who has been lights out since the start of August, going 5-0 with a 2.16 ERA, but who hasn’t really been at his best against the White Sox this year, going 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA in three starts. 

The Royals aren’t out of the playoffs yet, but I simply can’t see them picking up the pieces so quickly after getting hammered so soundly by Oakland. Chicago comes in off a 2-1 win over the Indians and I think it will find a way to get the job done this evening as well with its ace on the mound. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck….Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST).

If Tampa Bay could play Toronto a few more times in a year, it would likely be vying for a playoff spot. For some reason the Rays seem to have the Blue Jays’ number this season, but they’ve struggled with most other clubs. 

After taking two of three in Toronto this week, I’m expecting the visitors to come up short tonight against the playoff hopeful Orioles.

While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I think Yovani Gallardo has the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (5-8, 3.62 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and three walks over just 2.2 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Yanks on Friday. Snell is just 1-3 in his last four outings and has seen his decent start to the season go down the proverbial crapper. Note that he’s a poor 1-4 with a 4.00 ERA on the road this year.

Gallardo (5-7, 5.44) had his last start skipped over, but previously looked decent by allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five over five innings in a victory over these very Rays on September 6th. Note that he’s 2-2 with a respectable 3.80 ERA at home this year.

The Orioles just took two of three in Boston and sit one game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. They’re also just one game ahead of Toronto, which is in LA to take on a depleted Angels team this weekend. 

Baltimore has struggled on the road this year, but is 45-25 at Camden Yards and I think it punches another one into the win column with a convincing victory over a satisfied Rays team which just goes through the motions tonight.

Play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners.

I like Seattle to build off yesterday’s 8-0 victory in what I feel to be a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (15-11, 3.96 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings in a win over Oakland on Friday. He’s been decent of late, allowing five runs over his last 13.2 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s 11-5 with a 3.79 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Jhoulys Chacin (5-8, 5.63) who will make a spot start for an injured Tyler Skaggs. The veteran has been a shell of his former self this year and has been particularly horrible in all “night” games, going 4-7 with a 5.61 ERA.

Seattle looks to sweep the lowly Angels today as it desperately fights for the second AL Wild Card. The M’s are in the thick of the battle and this is a contest which they can clearly ill afford to let slip by. I think Iwakuma offers fantastic value in this matchup. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:10 EST).

The Rangers held on for a 3-2 win yesterday and I think they carry that momentum over into the finale in what is another favorable matchup for them.

The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland, who has been at his best whenever facing the Astros, going 5-2 with a 4.19 ERA in 12 career outings against them. And he’s been even better against them this year, going 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two outings thus far.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-4, 4.78) who comes in off a strong outing, giving up two runs off three hits over six innings innings in an unfortunate setback to the Cubs on Friday. I’ll caution in reading too much into the decent effort though, the rookie has predictably struggled in his limited time this year and in his previous start against these very Rangers he was blasted for five runs. I think his home/road ERA discrepancy will start to “even” out now (has 1.19 ERA at home and 8.71 ERA on the road). 

Houston is crushed after Texas rallied in the top of the ninth with two outs, while the Rangers look to win for a 16th time in the last 19 in this series. Play on the Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (1:45 EST).

After grabbing the opener, the Cubs fell 4-2 in Game 2 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done in the finale of this important series and all things considered, do definitely feel we’re getting excellent value in this matchup.

Chicago sends Jon Lester (16-4, 2.51 ERA) to the hill, he comes in off a gem against Houston on Friday, going seven scoreless with seven K’s and zero walks. Lester would go on to give up just one extra-base hit and induce 13 swinging strikes. Over his last eight starts Lester is 6-0 with a minuscule 1.17 ERA. Note that he’s 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (14-7, 3.05) who also comes in off a strong out against Milwaukee on Friday, giving up two runs over seven innings for the victory. Martinez has posted six straight quality outings and is 4-0 in that span. Surprisingly, if he’s had one “weak” area this year, it’s been his play in front of the home town crowd where he’s a pedestrian 6-6 with a 3.72 ERA.

Lester has arguably been the sharpest in the entire league over the last month and I think that intense focus and momentum gets carried over here. Martinez has been just average at home, which isn’t going to cut it today againts the NL’s most prolific offense. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

After yesterday’s 11-4 loss, I look for the visitors to bounce back today.

Cleveland hands the ball to Trevor Bauer (11-6, 3.86 ERA) who managed a win in his last start despite not being at his best, giving up five runs over five innings against the Astros on Thursday. Bauer looks to get back on track and finish the best campaign of his career, note that he’s 6-3 with a very respectable 3.13 ERA on the road this season. 

The home side counters with Jose Quintana (11-10, 3.13) how gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings against the Tigers on Wednesday. Quintana has regressed massively of late, having now gone four straight outings in which he’s given up four or more earned runs. Note that he owns a poor 4.44 ERA at home as well.

The first-place Tribe have a shot at home field advantage through the playoffs, but clearly they can ill afford to have to many more “brain farts” like yesterday’s performance. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Quintana’s recent performance has the southpaw trending in the wrong direction. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

Matt Garza has struggled with consistency all year, while Dan Straily is putting together one of the best campaigns of his career. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.”

Garza (5-6, 4.36 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the Cubs on Wednesday, holding them to a single run off three hits over six innings in the eventual no-decision. So has Garza turned the corner? He’s put together two quality starts, but he’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this year and note that he’s been at his worst on the road, just 1-5 with a ballooned 5.96 ERA.

Straily (11-8, 3.88) hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s certainly been a lot more consistent than his volatile counterpart. Most recently he gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out six over five innings in a setback to the Pirates on Thursday. Despite scuffling a bit of late, Straily has set personal bests for games played, innings pitched, strikeouts and wins this season. Straily has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back in this spot as well as he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd, going a near-perfect 6-1 with a very respectable 2.85 ERA. 

Garza has struggled against the Reds, going 4-4 with a 5.04 ERA in 13 lifetime starts. Straily on the other hand is allowing the opposition to hit just .224 against him, good enough for ninth best in the NL. Also note that he’s 1-0 with a tiny 1.35 ERA in three appearances against Milwaukee.

I think these strong pitching trends continue here, play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, both on the mound and at the plate. 

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (8-5, 3.82 ERA), who comes in off a poor start versus the Rays. Bundy has been all over the map as far as his recent game-to-game consistency has been concerned and note that he owns a ballooned 5.23 ERA on the road thus far.

The hard-hitting home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (10-11, 3.01) who took a loss against the Padres on Monday despite allowing just two runs with five K’s over 5.2 innings of work. Pomeranz has not given up more than three earned runs since July and over his last seven outings he’s posted a very respectable 2.76 ERA and posted 44 K’s to just 14 walks in 42.1 innings of work. 

The last time Bundy faced the Red Sox was on August 17th and he’d get shelled for five runs off nine hits, including two home runs in 4 1/3’s innings of work. And now Boston is hitting the ball harder than ever. 

As stated off the top, I think Pomeranz has a big advantage on the mound and the Red Sox have a big advantage at the plate. When you add it all up, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:15 EST).

These two teams are battling it out for playoff position, but as I’ve stated many times in the past, for the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching an in this case, I think Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs offer fantastic value tonight.

Hendricks (14-7, 2.07 ERA) comes in off another strong outing on Labor Day, holding Milwaukee to one run over six innings, also going on to strike out six. His WHIP fell to 0.99 on the year and he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs since mid May. Note that he owns a 2.04 ERA in all “night” games thus far as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Mike Leake (9-9, 4.61) who returned after a short stint on the DL to post a no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday, looking unremarkable after giving up three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 2-5 with a 4.57 ERA at home and an even worse 6-8 with a 5.05 ERA in all “night” games.

For this pick I’m concentrating entirely on the starting pitching. I feel Hendricks and the hard-hitting Cubbies should be much larger favs than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST).

Once again we have a big pitching mismatch on our hands in this one, and once again, I think the oddsmakers have undervalued the clearly superior starter. Suffice it to say, I think Carlos Carrasco and the hard-hitting Indians find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Carrasco (11-7, 3.15 ERA) comes in off a hard-fought win over the Astros on Wednesday, allowing four runs while striking out five over 7.1 innings of work. Carasco has excelled in this spot, going 9-4 with a 3.65 ERA in all “night” games and 6-4 with a 2.02 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Miguel Gonzalez (3-6, 3.81) who continued his up-and-down season on Tuesday by allowing no runs over six innings in a 2-0 victory over the Tigers. Gonzalez had been shelled in his previous re-hab start though and has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned this year. Note that he’s a poor 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far as well.

I like Carrasco to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Indians to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. 

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Gerrit Cole (7-9, 3.55 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he returns from the DL and will be looking to improve upon his very respectable 5-4, 3.58 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (10-9, 3.90) who comes in off a dud against the Fish on Wednesday, giving up four runs off nine hits over six innings in the setback. That’s now three straight outings in which Hellickson has allowed at least four runs. Note that he’s a pedestrian 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Pittsburgh can ill afford not to take advantage of this favorable matchup as it now sits 5.5 games back of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot. Hellickson is worn out, while Cole returns fresh, in my opinion this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:07 EST).

After falling in the opener of this important divisional series, the Jays bounced back with a 3-2 victory yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say, I think Toronto finds a way to get the job done today as well with what I feel to be a vastly superior starter on the mound for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (6-10, 4.99 ERA), who comes in off a decent outing against the soft-hitting Friars on Tuesday, giving up just one run off eight hits while stirking out six over six innings of work. Buchholz’s recent performance has earned him a spot in the starting rotation for now.

The home side counters with ace Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.92) who most recently allowed three runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Tuesday. Sanchez has now posted a quality outing in ten of his last 13 starts. Note that he’s 9-2 with a 2.55 ERA in all night games this year.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I feel that for the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this case, Sanchez should be a much bigger fav in my opinion, this is a pressure packed situation that dramatically favors the home side, so all things considered, I think we’re getting a fantastic price in this matchup. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Jordan Zimmermann and the home side.

The visitors trot out Ubaldo Jimenez (6-11, 6.19 ERA) who enters poised for a big letdown after his best outing of the season, holding Tampa Bay to three runs over nine innings in a win on Monday. It was his first victory since late June. I’m not going to read too much into one decent start though, Jimenez has struggled all year and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road, going 2-7 with a 5.94 ERA. 

Zimmermann (9-5, 4.44) was unbeatable over the first two months of the season, but predictably regressed and then also got injured. Zimmermann returns from the DL and will be looking to improve upon his 4.00 ERA in all “night” contests.

This is a big series for both teams, with yesterday’s 4-3 win the Tigers are now tied with the Orioles for the second wild-card spot. 

I think the time off is going to help Zimmermann (at least in this first start) and have zero faith whatsoever in Jimenez. In my opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down in this matchup, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST).

Chris Archer has been a lot better since the All Star break after a disastrous start to the year, but Yanks’ ace Masahiro Tanaka has been consistently dominant in this spot all season and I’m expecting those trends to continue this afternoon.

Archer (8-17, 4.06 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk over 6.1 innings in no-decision against Toronto on Sunday. Archer posted a 3.38 ERA in July and a 3.03 ERA in August, but note that he’s a poor 5-8 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA on the road this year.

Tanaka (12-4, 3.11) has been good at home (6-1, 4.08), but awesome in all “day” games, going a perfect 6-0 with a very respectable 3.02 ERA.

The Japanese hurler has given up two runs or fewer in 19 of his 28 starts this season and over his last 39 innings of work he’s 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA. 

The Yanks come in with plenty of momentum as well after Mark Teixeria’s grand slam led them to a 7-4 victory yesterday. 

The Rays are trending in the opposite direction, after taking the first two from the Jays last weekend, they’ve now dropped five of six. 

I think New York keeps the foot on the gas as its young players continue the surge in the playoff race. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (10:05 EST).

Texas lost 6-3 in Seattle last night, but I think the hard-hitting Rangers will bounce back here and look for Yu Darvish to outduel his volatile counterpart.

Darvish (5-4, 3.45 ERA) comes in off his first poor start of the season, allowing five runs off seven hits and three walks while also striking out four over four innings in a setback to Houston on Sunday. No need to hit the panic button if you’re a Darvish fan though I don’t think, previous to that clunker he’d held his opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight of his first ten starts this season. While he’s yet to win on the road this year (0-3), he does own a very respectable 3.03 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 4.71), who comes in off a win against Seattle on Saturday despite giving up two home runs. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA at home this year.

Darvish owns a 7-2, 4.00 ERA in 12 career starts against LA, while Skaggs is 2-1 with an atrocious 7.91 ERA in three lifetime outings versus the Rangers. 

I look for these strong pitching trends to continue here, play on Texas.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Clayton Kershaw returns to the Dodgers’ lineup after a stint on the DL to take on Marlins ace’ Jose Fernandez on Friday night. Kershaw is obviously one of, if not the best in the entire business, but Fernandez certainly isn’t far behind him. Fernandez has also proven to be almost unbeatable at home. While Kershaw will be a big boost for LA down the stretch, I think it’ll take at least a couple of starts for the big southpaw to get up to speed and that leaves the back door open for Fernandez and the Marlins tonight.

Kershaw (11-2, 1.79 ERA) threw one re-hab start and looked great. He’ll be on a pitch count today though as his health will be key in the Dodgers’ postseason success: "At this point, it's more of a pitch-count deal, making sure I can contribute and not just kind of go out there," Kershaw explained about his comeback earlier in the week. "We're still working the kinks out."

Fernandez (13-8, 3.03) comes in off an outing to forget versus the Indians on Saturday, allowing seven runs over 5.2 innings. No need to hit the panic button though obviously, he didn’t even allow a run whatsoever over his previous two starts. And note that he’s 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at home this year.

Miami isn’t out of a wild card spot quite yet and a win today would clearly be a big step in the right direction. I like Fernandez to bounce back in front of the home town crowd and for the Marlins to give him just enough support for the victory.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

The battle for a wild card spot continues on Friday night, but I think this is a bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (7-10, 3.58 ERA), who has looked briliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. He enters off back-to-back strong efforts against the Yankees, holding New York to zero runs over his last 13 innings of work. Gausman though has been at his worst on the road this season, going 1-9 with a poor 4.82 ERA.

The home side counters with Michel Fulmer (10-6, 2.77) who for the most part has been much better than what Detroit could have possibly hoped for this year. Note that Fulmer has been very good at home as well by posting a 2.95 ERA.

Gausman is just 1-1 with a ballooned 4.91 ERA in four career starts against Detroit, which sits just one game back of the Orioles, who are two games back of the Red Sox. 

I think Gausman’s road issues continue and I believe Fulmer will bounce back tonight and continue his strong play in front of the home town crowd. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Clayton Richard and the home side have the advantage.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (0-2, 6.60 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and four walks over six innings in an 8-5 loss to Washington on Friday. He was an absolute disaster in his first outing, so this was actually a huge improvement for the youngster in his second start. 

Richard (1-3, 3.29) gave up one run over five innings in a tough matchup against the Dodgers on Friday, striking out four and walking just one in the unfortunate no-decision. Over his last four starts the veteran has posted a tiny 1.17 ERA spanning 23 innings. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.12 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that for the most part I feel that MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my professional opinion, Clayton holds a major advantage over his unproven and clearly inconsistent rookie counterpart. I feel the home side should be a much larger fav in this matchup considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. Play on San Diego.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:05 EST).

I had a play on the Mets yesterday afternoon and they’d hold on for a 6-3 win in Cincinnati. I also had a free play on the Pirates yesterday and they’d manage a 4-3 victory over St. Louis.

I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog today though as Dan Strailly continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers when considering how consistent he’s been this year.

Straily (11-7, 3.83 ERA) wasn’t at his best in his last start, but still managed to come away with the victory, issuing seven walks to the Cards on Saturday, but only giving up and earned run off three hits over 5.2 innings of work, also going on to strike out five. Note that previous to the seven walks, he’d only given up four free passes over 32 innings spanning six starts. 

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.34) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee on Saturday. Nova has been sharp for the Pirates since coming over from the Yanks, going 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA. 

I think Pittsburgh is primed for a letdown after last night’s emotional victory, as the win snapped an eight-game losing streak. 

Note that the Reds have played the Pirates close this season as well, as Pittsburgh holds a slight 6-5 edge in 11 matchups so far, outscoring Cincinnati by only 40-39. 

The Reds had their chances yesterday too, as they had runners on base in all nine innings, but stranded 12, going just 3 of 13 with runners in scoring position. 

I like Straily, who is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven appearances and four starts versus the Pirates this year, to match Nova and for the visitors to catch a complacent Pirates team off guard in the opener of this three game set. Play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry