Cappers Sports Picks

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9*) 4:05 EST

I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.19 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. For the most part Flaherty has been as solid as St. Louis could possibly have hoped for this year, but note that he’s winless in four straight trips to the hill. 

The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss at Colorado on Monday. Previous to this setback he’d go 15 innings and allowed zero runs to go along with a 16/4 K/W.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already just 22-23 (-6.7 units) this year following a victory, while San Francisco is still 11-7 (+1.5 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

All things considered, I think this is a very fair price as I look for Bumgarner to take advantage of familiar surroundings.

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) 2:20 EST

The home side roared from behind to win 8-7 yesterday and suffice it to say, I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in this one as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it.

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Monday. Starts like though have been few and far between for Castillo this year and note that he’s 2-5 with a 6.70 ERA on the road this season. 

The home side counters with Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25) who earned his seventh straight win last time out despite giving up four runs (just two earned though) while also going on to strike out five over five innings against the Twins on Sunday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the veteran this year and he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back, as note that he’s an elite 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA at home this season.

I like Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 2:10 EST

I like the Brewers to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat. 

The Braves hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (8-3, 3.10 ERA) who gave up five runs off three hits with five walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. Newcomb has been better than ATL could have possibly asked for this year, but this latest effort is a bit of a concern I’d say.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (5-5, 2.87) who comes in off a gem against the Twins on Tuesday, going five scoreless while striking out eight. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Guerra also sports a 88/34 K/W over 87.2 innings of work. Also note that Guerra has been at his best at home this year by posting a 2.67 ERA in Milwaukee (he also has a 2.14 ERA in all day games.)

Atlanta’s been decent on the road this season, but I think Guerra is the correct call at home here. Look for the revenge-minded Brewers to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST).

One of these starters has been solid all year, while the other is a confirmed “gas can.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the steady Ross Stripling (6-2, 2.27 ERA) who gave up four runs while striking out seven and walking one in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday. 

While it clearly wasn’t his best outing, Stripling still comes in sporting the sharp ERA to go along with an elite 1.12 WHIP and a massive 96/16 K/W over 83.1 innings of work. Note that he owns a 2.20 ERA on the road as well.

The home side counters with Deck McGuire (0-1, 7.56) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. In his last big league start (which was his season debut) just last, McGuire gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Dodgers are already 3-1 in all inter-league games this year, while the Angels are just 3-4 in the same position.

Everything points to a rout from start to finish, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

I think the home side can build off yesterday’s 5-1 win over Tampa.

The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Astros on Sunday, giving up one run with ten K’s over 7.1 innings in the eventual victory. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’ll stumble here under this National League format.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports a respectable 76/32 K/W and note that he owns a sharp 2.99 ERA in all day games to this point as well.

Both teams have been terrible in this spot for bettors, but ultimately I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I like the Cubs to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat.

Matt Harvey (4-5, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently allowed no runs off two hits over 5.2 innings in a win over Milwaukee last week. Harvey has admittedly looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still a poor 2-3 with a 6.10 ERA in all day games this season.

The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (3-5, 4.54) who comes in off a terrible showing, giving up seven runs off seven hits in a no-decision to Minnesota on Saturday. The silver lining was that he’d go on to strike out six. Note that it was just the second time this year that he’s given up four or more runs. 

I’ll point out though that Cincinnati is just 17-23 on the road this season, while the Cubs are 26-14 at home this year, including 11-4 (+4.8 units) as a fav in the -125 to -175 range.

I think Harvey has a predictable letdown here after his decent stretch, and I expect the hungry and revenge-minded Cubs to take advantage. Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 9:40 EST

I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat as a -160 favorite.

The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.26 ERA) who gave up one hit and walked four over five scoreless in a win over the punch-less Pirates on Saturday. Note that he only threw 52 of his 85 pitches for strikes though. While that was good enough to best Pittsburgh, clearly the hard-hitting Diamondbacks won’t be as “easy.” Note that in his three starts since returning from the DL he’s walked eight opponents over 10.2 innings. 

The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-6, 5.07) who comes in off an outing to forget against San Francisco on Sunday, allowing seven runs off nine hits while striking out five over four innings. Previous to that he’d posted four straight quality efforts, so clearly this was a step back. 

Godley is suffering through his most inconsistent season since his rookie year, but note that he’s been at his best in this particular spot, going a respectable 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA at home and an even better 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that San Diego is just 28-33 against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws.

I like Godley to bounce back after his latest poor effort, while everything points to the Padres suffering a predictable letdown here after last night’s victory.

Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (8*) 8:10 EST

I like Baltimore to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (6-7, 3.75 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make his first start since June 26th. Bundy threw a bullpen session and he’s been cleared to go. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a 1.21 WHIP over 16 starts. Further note that he has a 3.25 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Lance Lynn (5-7, 5.49) who gave up seven runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Lynn looked decent overall in June, but his first start in July was a complete disaster obviously. He’s been better at home than on the road, but I think his blow-up in his last start is a sign of things to come, as recent gains do definitely seem unsustainable considering his already poor season numbers.

Baltimore has been terrible this year, but Bundy comes back fresh and I think he’ll have more than enough to out-duel his inconsistent counterpart. 

Play on the hungry Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

Both teams had the night off on Thursday. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Phillies hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.66 ERA) who picked up a win in relief on Sunday, pitching a scoreless 13th inning with one walk and one K. Previous to that Pivetta had been roughed up by the Nationals. 

Pivetta and the Phillies though catch a break squaring off against the volatile Trevor Williams (6-6, 4.22) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out over 4.2 innings in a loss to San Diego on Saturday. 

Williams has been a complete “gas can” of late, allowing at least four earned runs in six of his past ten starts. Note that he also only has 68 K’s over 91.2 innings of work.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 17-11 (+6.1 units) against clubs with losing records. Conversely, the Pirates have struggled in this position by going just 15-26 (-9.5 units) against teams with winning records.

I like Pivetta to out duel his struggling counterpart and for the Phillies to find a way to take the opener of this three game series. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8*) 7:05 EST

Both teams had the night off last night. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Yanks go with Sonny Gray (5-6, 5.44 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing six runs off seven hits over 2.1 innings of work. Gray owns an atrocious 2-3, 8.25 ERA record at home, compared to a much more respectable 3-3, 3.28 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.97) who gave up three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be no-decision against the Tigers on Saturday. Gaviglio has been better at home than on the road this year, but I still think he’ll have difficulties today facing a Yanks team that he got the better of earlier in the season.

I’ll point out as well that New York has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going a solid 13-7 (+2.2 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. Conversely, this is a position in which the Jays have struggled mightily in for bettors by going just 2-6 (-3.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

New York is looking to close the first half of the season strong and I think it takes care of business in the opener of this important divisional contest. Lay the price, play on the Yanks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat to the Angels.

LA sends Jaime Barria (5-4, 3.40 ERA) to the hill, and he’ll be making a spot start here after Tyler Skaggs was placed on the DL with an adductor strain. Note that Barria is allowing opponents to record a .352 wOBA against him on the road, compared to a .290 mark at home. 

The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (8-5, 3.77) who comes in off a complete game against the Royals on Friday, allowing one earned run off six hits while striking out seven with no walks. To go along with his respectable ERA, Gonzalez also sports a decent 1.23 WHIP and 87/20 K/W over 100.1 innings of work. 

Note that Gonzalez has consistently been at his best at home as well by going 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA thus far.

I base my selections on many different things, but this one just sets up nicely for the Mariners. They’re off the loss yesterday and catch the Angels needing to make a last second pitching change. I think Gonzalez is the correct call here for sure. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

The Rangers come in off a frustrating series loss at home to the Astros, most recently a 6-5 extra inning setback last night. Detroit meanwhile returns home after losing at the Cubs, most recently a 5-2 loss yesterday afternoon. These are two hungry teams looking for a victory, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound.

The visitors go with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 9.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with seven K’s over 7.1 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. After a disastrous start to the season, Gallardo has admittedly looked better of late, but I’m still unconvinced that he’s turned any major corners at this point.

The home side counters with Matt Boyd (4-6, 4.18) who struck out seven and walked two in a no-decision against Toronto on Saturday, ultimately allowing three runs over six innings of work. Previous to that Boyd had struggled a bit over two starts, but overall this year the southpaw has been as solid as Detroit could have possibly asked for. 

Note that Boyd has consistently been his most consistent at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA to this point..

I think Gallardo takes a predictable step back here, while recent form displayed by Boyd points to another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 10:10 EST

I think the home side will build off its 4-2 victory last night. 

St. Louis hands the ball to Miles Mikolas (8-3, 2.61 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits with one strikeout over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Mikolas, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.14) who most recently allowed one earned run off four hits with five K’s over six innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Friday. 

Corbin started the season on fire, but then dropped off considerably. However over his last two starts he’s given up just one earned run and posted a 17/1 K/W over his last 13 innings of work. Over 106 innings so far he’s posted a tiny 0.99 WHIP as well.

Additionally note that St. Louis is just 23-25 (-9.3 units) in all night games this year, while Arizona is 34-23 (+10 units) in the same position.

I like Corbin to get the better of his counterpart today and I look for the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST).

I like the Rockies to build off their 8-1 victory last night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (3-4, 4.18 ERA) who comes in off a win against Arizona in his latest start Friday, giving up one run off seven hits over six innings. Suarez had a strong June overall, but his ERA and 1.28 WHIP leave everything to be desired. Note as well that he’s a poor 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-3, 4.23) who went eight shutout innings against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up four hits and striking out eight. Anderson has now posted quality efforts in four of his last seven trips to the hill. 

While he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that the Rockies are 33-23 (+9.3 units) in all night games this year, while San Fran is just 26-29 (-1.5 units) in the same position. 

I think Suarez takes a step back in this difficult venue and I look for Anderson and the Rockies to take advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) 4:10 EST

I like the Mariners to build off yesterday’s 4-1 victory.

The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.42 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL after  hamstring issue in mid June. Note that he’s 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in all day games this year. Clearly Richards is facing a tough test today against the surging Mariners in his first start back.

The home side counters with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.01) who most recently allowed two runs off five hits with six K’s over seven innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Thursday. 

Leake has turned things around of late and he now has a big opportunity to lower his ERA under 4.00 for the first time since April (note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.69 ERA in all day games as well.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that LA is just 10-12 (-2.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Seattle is 16-6 (+10.4 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest falls in the same range.

I’m banking on Leake going longer than Richards and for the hot-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) 4:10 EST

I think the visitors will respond after yesterday’s 2-0 defeat and with their “ace” on the mound.

Minnesota hands the ball to Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Cubs on Friday, giving up six runs over 4.1 innings. Blow-ups like that though have been few and far between for Berrios, as this was his shortest outing since April. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (6-6, 4.18) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Friday. Note though that it was just his second quality start since May. Despite his recent form, note that Anderson comes in with a poor 3-3, 5.29 ERA record at home.

Minnesota comes in fired up after yesterday’s shutout. I think that Berrios bounces back here as well and everything points to predictable regression for Anderson after his latest decent effort. 

Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:10 EST).

I think the Pirates will respond here after yesterday’s humiliating 17-1 defeat. I also believe this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the home side after such a big victory.

Ultimately I believe that Ivan Nova has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup, as Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw continues to try and find his old dominant form.

Nova (4-5, 4.02 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Wednesday. Nova wasn’t at his best, but he still posted his third straight quality outing. 

In fact, over 25.2 innings in June, Nova posted an impressive 1.75 ERA. 

Kershaw (1-4, 2.84) gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Over eight innings since returning from the DL, he’s allowed three runs, while posting a 10/1 K/W. 

Pittsburgh is just 8-12 against left-handed starters this year, but I’ll point out that the Dodgers are a horrible 26-27 (-17.8 units) against right-handed starters as well this season. Looking back also sees the Pirates having gone 7-1 in their last eight after allowing 15 or more runs in their previous outing. 

For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’m banking on the humbled visiting side to respond after yesterday’s defeat, while everything does indeed point to a letdown for LA. 

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

After yesterday’s 6-3 defeat, I think the home side will bounce back on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-3, 2.92 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Wednesday, allowing four runs off six hits with two walks over six innings in the eventual setback. Flaherty has been strong overall this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with ace Zack Greinke (8-5, 3.41) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Miami on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. To go along with his strong ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.11 WHIP and note that he’s been at his best at home this season by going 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Cards are sill only 22-25 (-10.6 units) in all night games, while the D-Backs are 34-22 (+11.2 units) in the same position.

I think Greinke can out-duel his suddenly struggling counterpart and I look for the revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 EST).

The Brewers came from behind in a back and forth game to win 6-5 in yesterday’s series opener and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done here as well on Tuesday.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.62 ERA) who went six shutout frames in a 2-1 win over the soft-hitting White Sox on Thursday. Previous to this strong showing though, Odorizzi didn’t even make it out of the second inning. Overall Odorizzi has been a disappointment this year and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’m still expecting him to struggle in this difficult venue.

The home side counters with the steady Junior Guerra (4-5, 3.05) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Thursday. Guerra hasn’t been perfect this year, but he has to be feeling confident in this position as he comes in sporting a cry respectable 2.94 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 9-12 (-3.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 8-3 (+3.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST).

These pitchers faced off against one another last weekend and each went seven scoreless. San Francisco enters off a momentum building 9-6 win at Arizona last night, while Colorado was busy losing 6-4 at the Dodgers. 

While Kyle Freeland has been better at home than on the road, I still think that this one favors the hot-hitting Giants and the surging Madison Bumgarner.

Bumgarner (1-2, 2.51 ERA) went seven scoreless against the Rockies last week, striking out eight and inducing 12 swinging strikes. Bumgarner comes in on top form having posted 15 scoreless inning with 16 K’s and four walks over his past two starts. 

Freeland (7-6, 3.29) went seven scoreless last Wednesday as well, but I’ll point out that the Rockies have done poorly in this spot for bettors all year by going just 16-17 (-2.9 units) against southpaws. 

Conversely note that the Giants are 17-16 (+3.8 units) against left-handed starters. 

I think the Giants build off last night’s victory and I look for Bumgarner to continue his progression. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

Minnesota comes in off a disheartening 11-10 loss at the Cubs yesterday afternoon and it now must transition to another tough inter-league series in Milwaukee. In my professional opinion, this line could in fact be much larger.

The Brewers will be eager to take advantage after a listless 8-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. 

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-6, 3.48 ERA) who gave up five runs off 11 hits over seven innings in a loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. Clearly Gibson has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll falter in this NL format.

The home side counters with Brent Suter (8-5, 4.28) who gave up four runs off six hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Wednesday.

Suter came into that one having won three straight, so there’s no reason not to think he can’t make an immediate rebound here. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is a poor 19-27 (-8.8 units) this season in all night games, while Milwaukee is 34-15 (+20.2 units) in the same position.

I like Suter to bounce back at home and get the better of Gibson and the Twins in the opener.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST).

Arizona looks to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set after San Francisco blanked it 7-0 on Saturday night. 

The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (5-7, 4.24 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. It was his best start of the year and it wrapped up a decent overall June run for the veteran. Regression does seem imminent though, note that he was just 7-14 with a 5.99 ERA last season.

The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-5, 4.58) who gave up two runs off six hits with four K’s over five innings in a victory over Miami on Tuesday. Godley’s has serviceable numbers this year and he has been susceptible to a blow-up here or there, but note that he’s consistently been his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by posting a 4-1, 2.89 ERA record. 

I like Godley in this position as I think he’s the much “hungrier/focused” starter. Both Holland and the Giants are primed for a letdown in this spot. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (9*) 4:10 EST

I like the Pirates to bounce back here after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (5-6, 3.96 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out five in a victory over the Mets on Monday. Over five June starts covering 31 innings he’s posted a sharp 2.90 ERA. Note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in all day games this year.

The home side counters with Tyson Ross (5-5, 3.32) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Tuesday. Ross has been solid all season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his performance in all day games to this point, going 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.53 ERA.

I think that Taillon and the revenge-minded Pirates offer great value in this bounce back position. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (4:05 EST).

I like the Tribe to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-2 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-3, 3.03 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Cards on Monday. He’s now posted four quality starts in his last six trips to the hill and he has to be feeling confident here, as so far he’s 3-2 with a tiny 2.39 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Frankie Montas (4-1, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out one over three innings in a win over Detroit on Tuesday, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Clearly his early numbers were unsustainable and I think the young right-hander will be in trouble again today against the revenge-minded Indians.

I like Clevinger to out duel his now sliding counterpart and for the hungry visitors to respond after yesterday’s setback. 

Lay the price, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (3:05 EST).

The Rangers won 13-4 on Saturday and I think they’ll build off that effort with another convincing performance on Sunday.

The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (3-5, 3.73 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over 6.1 innings in what turned out to be a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. 

Lopez though has now conceded nine runs over his last 10.2 innings of work. And note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 1-4, 4.72 ERA record.

The home side counters with Cole Hamels (4-6, 3.61) who allowed four runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Monday. Hamels would induce 13 swinging strikes and he owns an elite 97/37 K/W over 97.1 innings of work this year. 

This could be Hamels last start as a Ranger, as he’s rumoured to be traded to several different teams. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 15-25 (-9 units) against teams with losing records this year, while Texas is 18-13 (+4.2 units) in the same position.

I like Hamels to out duel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Rangers to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST).

After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Mets will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (3-5, 3.69 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with seven K’s over seven innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. 

Matz has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having posted quality efforts in four of his last five trips to the hill. Note that he’s been especially tough on the road as well with a sharp 2.60 ERA.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 4.82) who will begin a five game suspension starting on Tuesday after his actions against the Giants during a scuffle last week. Straiiy comes in off a win over the Diamondbacks, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings on Monday. Previous to that though he’d gone 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over five starts.

With the suspension looming and on the front of his mind as well, I think Straily makes an immediate return to mediocrity.

I like Matz to out duel his distracted counterpart and for the revenge-minded Mets to avoid the sweep. 

Good luck…Larry 

My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 EST).

Washington hammered the Phillies 17-7 last night. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for the humbled home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.28 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start after straining his hamstring back on June 3rd. Hellickson comes in with the elite numbers, but if ever the veteran was going to stumble, or come back down to Earth, then this would be the spot. Regression seems imminent, as his early number seem completely unsustainable over the long-term considering his career marks. 

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69) who gave up two runs off three hits with four walks over six innings while also striking out seven in what turned out to be a hard luck loss against New York on Monday. 

Velasquez has been hit or miss all year, but he comes in on decent form and I think he can carry that momentum over here in what shapes up to be a favorable matchup for him.

Additionally note that Washington is just 8-10 (-2.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 16-10 (+5 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest is set in the same range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry 

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST).

The Angels prevailed 7-1 in last night’s series opener and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for them. 

The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs (6-5, 2.69 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. Over his last 28 innings (four starts), Skaggs has allowed two runs while striking out 30. And note as well that he’s been at his best on the road this year by going 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.70) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings against Seattle on Monday. Cashner hasn’t struck out more than four batters in any of his last six starts and to go along with his unimpressive ERA, he also owns a poor 1.62 WHIP. Additionally note that he’s 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA at home this season. 

And finally note that LA is a superb 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 1-6 (-4.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

I like Skaggs to continue his progression and I look for him to easily out duel his “gas can” counterpart. Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST).

The Giants will be hungry here after falling 9-8 at home to the Rockies in extra innings yesterday afternoon. 

After a sluggish stretch the Diamondbacks have gotten back on track of late as they return home off a satisfying road trip which included a 4-0 win on Thursday in Miami, part of a sweep of the Marlins.

I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Arizona though and I’m expecting San Francisco to take advantage.

The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run and a walk while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. 

Suarez has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. 

The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.24) who went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Friday. Corbin came into that gem though having allowed five runs in back-to-back outings.

Overall Corbin has put together a great season, but I think Suarez can match him inning for inning.

And in a scenario like that, I think the value absolutely swings to the focused and hungry underdog. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (8:15 EST).

Both teams had the night off on Thursday. Here’s another one though where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (5-5, 4.52 ERA), who gave up seven runs off six hits and three walks over 4.2 innings while striking out six in a 7-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday. Teheran is struggling, having now walked exactly three batters in seven straight starts, posting a 6.05 ERA and 31/21 K/W over 38.2 innings over that span. 

The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (8-2, 2.69) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. His peripherals remain solid (0.7 HR/9 and 51 percent ground ball rate), pointing to sustainability as we approach the mid way point. Note that Mikolas is -2 with a 1.68 ERA at home as well.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Teheran is going to be in trouble once again in this tough environment. And there’s no reason not to think that Mikolas won’t be able to come out here and produce another quality effort at home. Lay the price, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (9*) (7:10 EST).

Milwaukee managed the 6-4 win last night over the Reds and I think the hard-hitting visiting side will find a way to get the job done on Friday as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (5-6, 4.37 ERA) who gave up one earned run off two hits with four walks while striking out nine over five innings against the Cardinals on Saturday, unfortunate to earn a no-decision. Anderson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his most consistent on the road so far with a very respectable 3.12 ERA.

The home side counters with the volatile Sal Romano (4-7, 5.40) who gave up five runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over five innings against the Cubs on Sunday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Romano has been better at home than on the road, but he still has a rather poor 3-3, 4.99 ERA in Cincinnati so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 38-24 (+14.7 units) this year against right-handed pitching, while the Reds are just 22-35 (-8.5 units) in the same position.

I like Anderson to out duel his “gas can” counterpart and for the Brewers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (5:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in the opener of this interleague series.

The Twins hand the ball to Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.15 ERA) who struck out 12 batters over seven shutout innings in a 2-0 victory over Texas last time out. Berrios has looked sharp overall this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness, it’s been his performance on the road where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA, compared to 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA at home.

The home side counters with Mike Montgomery (2-2, 3.39) , who has looked great as a starter in his limited time so far, posting a 2.02 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 25 K’s over 35.2 innings spanning six starts.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 62-86 (-18 units) the last three years in all inter-league contests, while Chicago is 34-20 (+4.6 units) in the same position and time frame.

I think Berrios stumbles in the NL format and I look for Montgomery to continue his steady progression in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (3:05 EST).

Seattle held on for an 8-7 win yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon on Thursday as well.

The visitors go with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.11 ERA) who went eight scoreless against the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out five and allowing just three hits. Over his last 49.2 innings of work Leake has allowed only 12 earned runs. Note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road as well this season by going 5-1 with a 3.89 ERA.

The home side counters with Jimmy Yacabonis (0-0, 15.43) who over 23 career innings in the big leagues as strictly a reliever has posted a 5.48 ERA and nine strikeouts. His numbers look sharp in Triple-A, but so far that success has not translated or carried over into the majors in any way whatsoever. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 34-19 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Baltimore is 13-37 (-23.8 units) against right-handed starters. 

All things considered, I think that Leake is being severely under-valued in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST).

The Twins came up short in yesterday’s 6-1 defeat as a -150 favorite, but I think the visiting side will bounce back here in this favorable matchup on the mound.

The visitors go with Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday, allowing six runs over 1.2 innings. Odorizzi has struggled of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his best in all day games with a  respectable 3.57 ERA this season.

And here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as Lucas Giolito (5-7, 7.01) has been a complete “gas can” from the start this season. Giolito earned a win last time out despite allowing four runs off seven hits over six innings. Giolito has looked a bit better of late, but the Tigers and A’s line-ups leave something to be desired. Note the he owns a poor 6.99 ERA in all day games this year.

Also note that Minnesota is still 16-12 (+3 units) this season against divisional opponents, while Chicago is only 12-24 (-10.4 units) against the division. 

I’m banking on Odorrizi bouncing back here and for the revenge-minded Twins to do the rest. Lay the price, play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST).

St. Louis scored the decisive 11-2 victory over Corey Kluber and the Indians yesterday and I think the home side offers great value to do it again on Wednesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (2-0, 2.45 ERA) who gave up four hits over seven scoreless in a win over Detroit on Friday. Bieber has looked sharp in his limited time as a starter for the Tribe, but clearly he faces a stiff test here on the road in this inter-league format.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.50) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Friday, allowing one run off one hit with 13 K’s over seven innings. Flaherty comes in with a strong 68/16 K/W over 57.2 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here against the Indians’ “on again, off again” line-up.

Flaherty is holding his opposition to a .201 batting average and I think he’s going to easily out duel his still untested counterpart. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) (8:10 EST).

The White Sox scored the minor upset in yesterday’s 8-4 win over the Twins, but I think the visitors will bounce back here in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them.

Minnesota hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-5, 3.25 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings with five K’s in a loss to the Red Sox on Thursday. Gibson’s win/loss record is not indicative at all of the way he’s been playing of late though. While he’s lost three of his last four, he’s posted a strong 2.20 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over his last five trips to the hill.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (2-9, 4.59) who was most recently rocked for eight runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Note that the veteran has struggled across the board and is just 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA at home.

I’ll point out as well, despite the loss yesterday the Twins are still 16-11 (+4.2 units) against the division this season, while the White Sox are just 11-24 (-11.6 units) against the division this year.

I like Gibson to come in focused and to out duel his inconsistent counterpart. All things considered, I think a very fair price on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (8:05 EST).

The Padres took the opener of this series 3-2 last night, but I think the home side will bounce back here. Two veteran pitchers come into this one red hot, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (7-6, 4.23 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits over six innings while striking out four and walking none in a win over the Giants on Friday.

Richard owns a 2.77 ERA over four June starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all night games this season.

The home side counters with Mike Minor (5-4, 5.06) who has won three straight June starts behind a 3.46 ERA, most recently allowing one earned run with three K’s over six innings against the Twins on Friday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that he does own a respectable 1.26 WHIP over 78.1 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA at home so far.

While Texas is just 3-3 in interleague games this season, over the last three years it’s 30-16 (+13.2 units) in that department. The Padres are just 15-31 (-9.8 units) in interleague contests in the same span, including a horrible 1-7 (-6 units) this season. I’m looking for the hard-hitting home side to answer after yesterday’s lacklustre effort. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Robbie Ray returns from an extended stint on the DL to a favorable matchup in Miami and I think the hard-throwing southpaw will make the most of it.

Ray (2-0, 4.88 ERA) made two re-hab starts and was scheduled to make three, but an injury to Clay Buchholz likely bumped him up. Regardless, he’s been cleared to go tonight and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to put out an efficient outing. In his final rehab on Tuesday he’d give up three runs (one earned) over 4.1 innings while also striking out nine. Note that Ray was dominant on the road last year by going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA. 

The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (2-4, 6.70) who most recently was crushed for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a blowout loss to Colorado on Friday. Chen has in fact been a lot better at home (2-1, 2.53) than on the road (1-4, 9.85), but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all night games.

The Diamondbacks are 21-18 (+5.6 units) on the road this year, while the Marlins are just 15-21 (-1.6 units) at home. I think Ray finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST).

I think the Rockies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Granted, Chad Bettis (5-1, 5.23 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent all year for Colorado, but he catches a break here going up against Derek Holland and avoiding a home start as well.

Bettis enters off an outing to forget against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing eight runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. 

But as mentioned above, while he’s 0-0 with an 8.75 ERA at home, Bettis is a “lights out” 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road.

Holland (5-7, 4.48) gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings against Miami on Wednesday. Holland has been hit or miss this year, especially with his play at home where he comes in sporting a 2-2, 5.34 ERA record thus far. 

I’ll point out as well that Colorado is a solid 30-21 (+8.7 units) in all night games so far this season, while the Giants are just 22-28 (-4.8 units) in the same position.

Everything points to a minor upset in the opener of this series. Play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (5-5, 4.56 ERA) who most recently was rocked for eight runs off eight hits and a walk in 9-3 loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Kuhl would only strike out two, while also allowing two home runs. Kuhl has for the most part been solid overall this season, but I’ll point out that he’s still only 3-3 with a 6.04 ERA in all night games to this point.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (3-5, 3.68) who gave up five runs over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 loss to Colorado on Thursday. It was the most runs that he’s given up in any start this year, so I don’t think there’s any need to overreact to one poor effort. Matz has a 3-2, 3.47 ERA in all night games as well.

Both teams have underwhelmed this season, but Matz at home at this price is the correct call in my opinion. Look for the revenge-minded Mets to deliver the goods on Tuesday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).

One of these starters has been consistent all season, while the other for the most has struggled across the board. After their 5-3 win in the opener of this three game series, I think that James Paxton and the visiting Seattle Mariners will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Tuesday as well.

Paxton (6-2, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a loss against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up four runs over five innings of work, while also going on to strikeout nine. Paxton though would allow two home runs and three walks. 

That’s back-to-back shaky outings against two of the league’s most prolific clubs (Boston and then New York), but I think the big southpaw can bounce back in this favorable matchup tonight. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this year.

Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman gave up two runs off four walks and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman is winless since early May and note that he’s only 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

Additionally note that Seattle is 23-13 (+4.2 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is just 9-30 (-16.7 units) against teams with winning records. 

I think Paxton bounces back and the hard-hitting Mariners do the rest. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) (7:35 EST).

The Reds come in off an 8-6 win at home over the Cubs yesterday and now hit the road for a tough series in Atlanta. 

The Braves were at home yesterday afternoon and they’d pull away for a convincing 7-3 win over the Orioles.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (6-6, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings. For the most part Mahle has been solid, but if he’s had one area weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s just 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA. 

The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.16) who returns from a very short stop on the ten-day DL due to shoulder inflammation. Foltynewicz threw a bullpen session and has been cleared to go and so far he’s 3-3 with a 2.19 ERA in all night games and 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 18-27 (-5.4 units) in all night games, while Atlanta is 26-23 (+2.3 units) in the same position.

Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises this year and I don’t foresee an upset. For arguments sakes, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” This matchup definitely favors the hard-hitting home side and I think it’s well worth the price of admission. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST).

Both teams come in off victories. The Tribe won 12-2 at home over the Tigers, while the Cards took care of business on the road in Milwaukee 8-2. 

For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors the home side.

The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the anemic White Sox on Tuesday. Clevinger has been sharp overall this season and it’s basically impossible to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that this is going to be a tough matchup, considering he’ll be playing under National League rules.

The home side counters with John Gant (1-2, 4.39) who has made seven appearances for the big club this year. Note that Gant owned a sharp 2.25 ERA in all home games last season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 4-9 (-9.5 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis is 9-5 (+3.8 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. 

I look for St. Louis to find a way to take the opener of this interleague contest. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) (7:05 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-6, 5.14 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday, giving up two runs (just one earned) off six hits with a walk while striking out six over five innings. 

Hernandez induced 17 swinging strikes and he’s now conceded just two earned runs while posting a sharp 12/2 K/W over his last 12 innings of work spanning two starts (and that was against New York and Boston.)

The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.72) who returned from the DL to post a decent outing, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. 

Starts like that though have been few and far between for Cashner this season and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s so far a poor 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle has done extremely well in this spot all year, going 33-16 (+15.3 units) in all night games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in the same position.

I like Hernandez to carry over his momentum, while everything points to regression for the streaky Cashner in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST).

The Yankees fell 7-6 in Tampa Bay last night, while the Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but enter off a tough 8-6 loss on Sunday night baseball.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side.

New York goes with Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Wednesday. 

Loaisiga shut down the Rays in his debut though and so far he’s shown tremendous potential. 

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82) who comes in off a no-decision to the Cards on Tuesday, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings of work. 

Velasquez though has consistently been at his worst at home this year, sporting a poor 3-4, 6.70 ERA record in Philadelphia.

I’ll point out as well that New York is already 12-6 (+2.6 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 18-32 (-5.9 units) in its last 50 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST).

Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but I think that the Nationals will bounce back in the finale.

The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over 7.1 innings in a no-decision against St. Louis. Pivetta has been decent this year and it’s hard to find too many faults, I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counter with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 4.66) who gave up five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodriguez’s only other appearance in the big leagues was a 4.2 scoreless innings effort against the Braves.

I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 8-14 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Washington is 19-14 (+4.4 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125.

I’m banking on the revenge minded home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (3:10 EST).

Miami won 6-2 yesterday and I think it and Caleb Smith have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well.

Smith (5-6, 4.03 ERA) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks with four K’s over four innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Note though that Smith enters with a highly respectable 3.46 ERA in all day games this year.

The home side counters with the volatile German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. 

Marquez though has given up at least four runs in all four starts in June, posting a 7.77 ERA and conceding seven home runs over 22 innings in that span. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA at home as well.

Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers, but Smith comes in throwing much more consistent at this point. Everything points to another minor upset on Sunday afternoon. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST).

The Giants held on for a 5-3 win yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. 

The visitors hand the ball to volatile Eric Lauer (3-4, 5.47 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Tuesday. The southpaw owns the poor ERA to go along with an atrocious .324 opponent batting average. Also note that Lauer has been at his worst on the road with a 1-2, 5.83 ERA record.

The home side counters with Dereck Rodriguez (2-1, 4.56) who struck out six and walked zero in a victory over Miami on Tuesday, conceding three runs over five innings. So far Rodriguez owns a respectable 22/6 K/W over 23.2 innings of work. Note as well that Rodriguez has been at his best at home thus far with a 2-0, 3.27 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego is already a poor 11-13 (-1.5 units) this year in all day games, while San Francisco is 17-11 (+10.5 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

I had a play on Arizona last night, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set and salvage getting swept. 

The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (1-1, 2.94 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Sunday. Buchholz has been solid in his limited time, but I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-4, 4.00) who comes in off a gem against Milwaukee on Monday, going seven scoreless and allowing only one hit to go along with seven K’s. Williams bounced back after a poor stretch and he’ll be looking to atone for a lacklustre effort against the Diamondbacks earlier in the year in which he allowed eight runs over three innings (just three earned.) 

I’ll point out though that Williams has been at his best at home by going 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA. 

I’m banking on Williams outdueling Buchholz and for the revenge minded home side to deliver the goods at the end of the afternoon. Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think this one highly favors the home side. All things considered, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who is being activated from the 10-day disabled list. Stroman threw a simulated game and has been given the green light here to try and improve upon his dismal start to the 2018 campaign. To go along with his ballooned 7.71 ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 total innings of work. 

The Angels counter with Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over four innings on Monday. Barria has been hurt by the long-ball of late, but note that he has a respectable 4-2, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all night games this season, while LA is 30-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position.

Barria is the correct call here in my opinion. Stroman’s shown no consistency whatsoever this season and he’s hard to trust on the road on his first start off the DL. Great value, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9*) (7:15 EST).

I don’t normally play favorites of this size, but in my opinion Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-4, 4.47 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one K in a setback to these very Red Sox last Sunday.

Leake has probably been better than the Mariners could have asked for to this point, but he still has only 55 K’s over 92.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games.

Rodriguez (9-1, 3.59) was on the winning side of last Sunday’s result, giving up two earned runs off six hits while striking out nine and walking one in his team’s 9-3 victory. It was his sixth straight winning decision and he now comes in with a sharp 90/24 K/W over 77.2 innings.

Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA in all night games this year and 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Rodriguez has another prime opportunity to pad his already impressive numbers. 

Lay the price, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST).

I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill.

The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. 

New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. 

Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) (4:05 EST).

I think Arizona will find a way to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory. While I don’t ever normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night, and then come back with the other in the following game), MLB is the one sport where each contest must be examined individually, because of the starting pitchers.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-5, 3.90 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits with two walks to go along with five K’s over 6.1 innings in a win over the Angels on Monday. 

Greinke had struggled previous to this decent outing, but he now certainly appears back on track.

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Musgrove’s early numbers were impressive, but unsustainable in my opinion. While he still owns a sharp 17/2 K/W over his last three starts, I think that further regression is imminent.

Note as well that Arizona is already 23-15 (+7.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is already just 15-20 (-3.3 units) against clubs with winning records. 

I like the surging D-Backs to find a way to get the job done here behind Greinke.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Both teams come in off a night of rest. Ultimately I think that Mike Fiers and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Fiers (5-3, 4.09 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with four K’s over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. While clearly not perfect, Fiers has for the most part been as solid as the Tigers could have possibly asked for this season. He’ll now look to improve upon his 2-2, 4.55 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Shane Bieber (1-0, 3.97) who was called up to make a start on Sunday against the Twins. Bieber looked decent in that outing, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. 

The Indians may have the advantage at the plate, but I firmly believe that Fiers is the correct call in this matchup. It’s certainly fantastic value on the determined veteran. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST).

After falling 6-2 yesterday, I like the Cubbies to bounce back on Friday night in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them.

The visitors turn to Jose Quintana (6-5, 4.06 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits over five innings, with three strikeouts in what turned out to be a loss to the Cards on Sunday. 

It was Quintana’s fourth straight start though in which he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. While his ERA is pedestrian, note that he comes in sporting a respectable 1.33 WHIP.

Note as well that while he’s a poor 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA at home, Quintana is a super 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (4-8, 5.77) who allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. It marked his fourth straight loss. Over his last 20.2 innings of work, Castillo has conceded a combined 16 runs. 

The Cubs have performed well in this spot for bettors all year as well, going 8-4 (+2.6 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range.

Conversely, this is a position in which the Reds have struggled in mightily all season, going a horrible 1-7 (-5.7 units) in all home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. 

In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

After yesterday’s humbling 9-3 defeat, I think the Pirates bounce back on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.48 ERA) who was most recently rocked for eight runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. Corbin was arguably the best pitcher in the entire league after the first month of the year, but clearly his early numbers were unsustainable, as note that he’s now conceded 17 earned runs over his last 23.2 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill.

The hungry home side counters with Ivan Nova (4-5, 4.42) who looked sharp in a win over the Reds on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits with three walks while striking out three over six innings. Since returning from the DL, Nova has looked great, allowing two runs over 11.2 innings of work. 

Note that Nova comes is sporting the respectable 3.48 ERA at home as well so far this year.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. 

Recent form displayed by Corbin suggests that he has another long night ahead of him against these revenge minded Pirates, while everything points to Nova continuing his consistent production in front of the home town crowd.

Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10*) (10:15 EST).

Madison Bumgarner has pitched twice since returning from injury and while he hasn’t looked dominant, he’s been decent. Suffice it to say, I think the veteran southpaw will get off the schneid this evening though and out duel his younger counterpart.

The Padres hand the ball to Tyson Ross (5-4, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off three hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings to the Braves on Thursday. Ross has been as good as San Diego could possibly ask for, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight.

Bumgarner (0-2, 4.67) gave up three runs with three K’s over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. While he has just nine strikeouts over his first 17.2 innings of work, note that he’d finish with a decent 3.40 ERA in all home games last year. There’s no reason not to think that Bumgarner won’t be able to carry over his progression for this first win of the season. And he faces a perfect opponent as well, as the Padres have been much better at home than on the road this season (especially in manufacturing offensive production.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego just 8-12 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while San Francisco is 20-12 (+6.7 units) in front of the home town crowd overall this season. 

I’m banking on Bumgarner to find a way to get the job done this evening and punch his first one into the win column. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (7:10 EST).

I feel that Kyle Hendricks and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup.

Hendricks (5-6, 3.55 ERA) most recently conceded three runs while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks has been more susceptible to allowing the home run ball this year, but he should come in quite confident facing the anemic Reds. Note as well that Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey (1-5, 5.92) who gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Harvey for the most part has struggled for his new team and note that he’s just 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in all home games to this point. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is already 8-4 (+2.6 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Reds are a poor 1-7 (-5.7 units) this season as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

This is a mismatch on the mound. Lay the price, play on Chicago.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the St. Louis Cardinals (10:05 EST).

I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team (taking one team one day and then the following day/game playing the other side.) However, MLB comes down to the starting pitching and I’ve always been of the thought that each matchup has to be looked at individually. 

Michael Wacha comes in off his first crummy outing of the year for the Cards, but I think he’s going to bounce back here in this favorable matchup. Jake Arrieta started the season strong for his new team, but he’s been struggling over the last month and suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry over here.

Wacha (8-2, 3.24 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off seven hits in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Three home runs were the difference. Outings like that have been few and far between for the big right-hander the last couple of years though, so there’s no reason to overreact to once lousy start. Despite the sub-par performance, note that Wacha still owns the respectable ERA, to go along with a solid 1.19 WHIP and elite level .213 opponent batting average. Note as well that Wacha comes in with the strong 3-1, 3.54 ERA road record.

Arrieta (5-5, 3.33) comes in off a third straight setback, allowing eight runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings against the Brewers on Friday. Arrieta’s slide back to mediocrity has seen him given up 18 runs over his last three starts. Note that his 6.2 K/9 that he owns right now is a 2.5 point drop from his 2016/17 numbers. 

Something’s “wrong” with Arrieta and I don’t think that the right-hander will be able to just “flip a switch” and gets things turned around immediately.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by Arrieta suggests that he’ll have another long night ahead of him here. I’m banking on Wacha taking advantage and getting back on track. Great value, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luke Weaver (3-6, 4.52 ERA) who most recently was rocked for four runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to San Diego on Wednesday. 

Note that Weaver enters with the sub-par 3-3, 4.98 ERA record on the road to this point.

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.74) who gave up two runs off one hit and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. Velasquez would go on to post 13 swinging strikes in the dominant effort and I think the hard-throwing right-hander will carry that momentum over here.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is a poor 9-14 (-6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is a solid 12-9 (+1.9 units) when at home with a similarly ranged price. 

All things considered, great value on the home side in this one. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST).

I believe Marco Gonzalez and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Gonzalez (7-3, 3.42 ERA) gave up three runs while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday. The southpaw would throw 61 of his 101 pitches for strikes and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that Gonzalez has in fact been at his best this season away from friendly confines with a 5-2, 3.29 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Domingo German (1-4, 5.32) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a win over the Rays on Thursday. It was his first victory of the season, so suffice it to say I’m not reading too much into the single decent performance. Note that German is a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA at home to this point.

The Mariners are 46-26 this year, while New York is 46-21. These teams have been solid for bettors all season, but I’ll point that Seattle is already a perfect 3-0 (+4.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range.

The M’s have been tearing the cover off the ball of late, so I’m calling these line-ups a “wash.”

And that then swings the value in favor of the undervalued underdog in my opinion. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST).

The Jays have been hot at home and just swept the Nationals in a three-game interleague series. However, I think Toronto is going to stumble against the hard-hitting Braves on Tuesday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka (2-1, 2.57 ERA) who returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the Mets, going to to give up one hit and a walk while striking out four over 6.1 scoreless frames of work. 

Soroka was extremely efficient, throwing 44 of his 74 pitches for strikes. To go along with his shiny ERA, note that Soroka also sports a strong 19/5 K/W over his first four big-league starts.

The home side counters with the volatile Jaime Garcia (2-5, 5.71), who most recently was rocked for four runs off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Garcia has been better at home than on the road for Toronto this year, but note that he’s still a sub-par 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in all night games.

Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is already a poor 15-19 (-1.6 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 15-9 (+4.2 units) this season against clubs with losing records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

This is one in which I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.75 ERA) who faced San Francisco last Wednesday and earned a no-decision for his effort after allowing three runs off eight hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings. Note that it was the fourth straight start in which he’s posted five or fewer strikeouts. 

Also note that Smith is just 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA on the road.

Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.92) didn’t factor into the decision as well throwing opposite Smith last week, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings. Suarez continues to make major strides, as evidenced by his 3.31 ERA in June. Also note that he’s consistently been at his best in friendly confines with a 3.55 ERA record. 

San Francisco has been at its best at home as well, going 19-11 (+7.2 units). I expect the Suarez to outduel his counterpart and for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (9*) (8:40 EST).

Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitchers. However, I still think that Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot.

DeGrom (4-2, 1.55 ERA) is coming off a loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, giving up one run off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings. 

The Mets took two of three from the Diamondbacks over the weekend and I think they’re going to finally give their ace some support here. Note that DeGrom also owns an elite 1.01 WHIP and impressive 113/23 K/W over 87.1 innings. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (4-1, 4.48) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out six over seven innings against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Anderson has looked good of late, but note that he owns the elevated 5.14 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that New York is already 4-1 (+2.4 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Colorado is only 4-6 (-2.3 units) at home with a money line set between +125 to -125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (7:05 EST).

Despite throwing on the road, I think that Miles Mikolas and the Cards are getting little respect in this particular matchup.

Mikolas (7-2, 2.43 ERA) most recently struck out five and walked zero and gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Tuesday. Mikolas has lost two of his last three starts, but note that he’s posted a quality effort in each.

And despite the win/loss record of late, note that he still holds the sharp ERA, to go along with an elite 0.96 WHIP and 63/9 K/W over 85.1 innings of work. Mikolas will now look to get back on track here and improve upon his 3-0, 3.41 ERA road record. 

The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.25), who gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings against the Rockies on Wednesday. 

Pivetta comes in with zero momentum as he’s now lost four straight and he hasn’t made it out of the fifth frame in any of them. Pivetta’s strikeout numbers remain solid, but his peripherals suggest that further regression is imminent. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA in all night games.

I think Mikolas will easily out duel the struggling Pivetta and all things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks with two K’s over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Monday.

Quintana though continues to struggle with consistency, as he hasn’t completed six innings in consecutive starts since the start of the year.

The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.96) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. 

Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year either, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a 2-1, 3.38 ERA thus far.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Cubs are a poor 36-40 (-5.8 units) in their last 76 when on the road and the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while St. Louis is already 8-4 (+3.6 units) this season at home with a money line between +125 and -125. 

I like Flaherty to out duel the “on again, off again” Quintana and for the home side to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST).

A couple of competent hurlers collide in the finale of this three game set and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side.

Boston hands the ball to the red hot Eduardo Rodriguez (8-1, 3.64 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 victory over Baltimore on Tuesday.

Rodriguez has had difficulty going deep into games, but the victory marked his fifth straight. Rodriguez will now look to improve upon his 3-0, 3.68 ERA road record.

Seattle counters with Mike Leake (7-3, 4.26) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. 

After a shaky start to the 2018 campaign, Leake has looked much better of late, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup.

As note that Seattle is a poor 60-67 (-15.8 units) in its last 127 against left-handed starters.

Also note that Boston is a superb 40-15 (+16.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

Clay Buchholz has been better than expected for the Diamondbacks in his limited time, but I think that Zach Wheeler and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup.

Wheeler (2-5, 4.98 ERA) will be eager to get back on track here after allowing six runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Previous to this “dud,” Wheeler had posted back-to-back quality efforts though, so I’m not reading too much into the lacklustre performance. Note that Wheeler owns a respectable 3.91 ERA in all day games this year.

Buchholz (1-1, 3.21) comes in off a poor showing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Tuesday. 

As mentioned off the top, Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for the D-Backs to this point, but clearly his early numbers are unsustainable and suffice it to say, I believe the veteran takes another step back here.

Arizona is 23-14 at home this year, while New York is only 14-17 on the road. I’ll point out though that Arizona’s weakness this season has been its play in all day games, going only 10-13 (-3 units) in such situations. 

I expect Wheeler to out duel his overachieving counterpart and I look for the Mets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST).

Cincinnati sends Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 5.40 ERA) to the hill in the finale of this three game set.

DeSclafani most recently allowed three runs off ten hits with two walks over five innings in a win over the Cardinals on Sunday. This was his second start since September 2016, as he’d be rocked for four runs over four innings in his season debut previous. So which DeSclafani shows up this afternoon?

The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-1, 2.16) who gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits with six K’s in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. Musgrove needed only 88 pitches to get through the six frames and he’d also go on to generate ten swinging strikes with his off-speed pitches on just 29 offerings. 

Musgrove has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA at home so far this season.

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is now 17-14 (+4.9 units) against the division this year, while Cincinnati is just 7-23 (-15 units) in the same position.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I do indeed believe we’re getting great value on Musgrove and the home side. Lay this reasonable price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Miami on Monday. Of the 91 pitches he threw, only 55 percent went for strikes. Clearly Bumgarner is still trying to shake off some rust after returning from injury. Note that he’s been at his worst on the road so far in his limited time back with a ballooned 6.75 ERA as well.

The home side counters with Alex Wood (1-5, 4.43) who had to leave his last start against these very Giants early with a hamstring issue. Wood has stumbled of late after a decent start, but I think he still has the advantage in this matchup. Note that he still sports the decent 4.18 ERA at home and an even better 3.96 ERA in all night games.

I’m giving Wood the slight nod in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Great line value, play on the Dodgers.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (4:10 EST).

Here’s another one where I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (3-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a victory over these very Brewers on Sunday. Eflin has been decent of late and it’s difficult in fact to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-4, 2.71) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision against Chicago on Monday. 

Guerra has now posted four quality starts in a row and he has to be feeling confident here, as not only does he have a 2.79 ERA at home, but he also owns a sharp 1.99 ERA in all day contests.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is a poor 13-19 (-4 units) on the road, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) in front of the home town crowd. 

I like Guerra to continue his dominance at home. Lay the very reasonable price.

Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) (4:05 EST).

Here’s a matchup in which I feel that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luis Castillo (4-7, 5.79 ERA), who was rocked for five runs with three walks over six innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. Castillo has now given up 15 home runs over 73 innings and to go along with his sub-par ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.42 WHIP. Also note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road all year with a 2-4, 6.64 ERA record to this point.

The home side counters with Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68) who returned from injury to face the Cubs on Sunday, looking sharp by allowing one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in the victory. Nova showed no signs of rust whatsoever and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that while he’s a disappointing 0-3 at home so far this season, he does own a very respectable 3.96 ERA in front of the home town crowd (is also 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA in all day games.) 

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Castillo has another long afternoon ahead of him. Great price, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) (4:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (6-6, 3.68 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Freeland would go on to post 15 swinging strikes and eight K’s overall. To go along with his 1.24 WHIP, note that Freeland owns the very respectable 3.99 ERA on the road.

The home side goes with Mike Minor (4-4, 5.65 ERA) who most recently gave up three earned runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no decision against Houston Saturday. Note that it was Minor’s first quality start though since May 3rd. Also note that he’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in all day games this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is 22-16 (+12.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is only 13-23 (-9.2 units) at home.

All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. Great value, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-4, 2.97 ERA) who was most recently rocked for five runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Saturday. Arrieta has now allowed ten runs over his last two starts and things aren’t going to get any easier for the veteran in this tough venue tonight.

The home side counters with Brent Suter (6-4, 4.61) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with five K’s in a win over these very Phillies on Saturday. Suter has been getting progressively better of late and I look for the southpaw to carry that momentum over here.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 13-19 (-4 units) on the road this season, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) at home so far.

When taking into account all of the above factors, I actually feel that this line could be a lot higher. Great value, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST).

Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, but that said I absolutely feel that Jose Urena and the hungry Marlins have much more than just a “punchers chance” in the opener of this interleague series.

Urena (1-8, 4.59 ERA) has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate so far this season. Most recently Urena gave up three runs off six hits with no walk and five K’s over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Sunday. 

It was the second time in his last seven starts that he’s avoided giving up a walk and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.94 ERA in all night games to this point as well.

The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.58) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Saturday. Previous to that decent outing Gausman had been rocked for 13 runs spanning eight innings. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.71 ERA at home.

I think Urena’s under-the-radar progression carries over here in this favorable interleague contest, while recent form displayed by Gausman suggests that he’s in line for another long night.

Great value on the underdog in this one. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I believe that this line could in fact be a lot larger, considering the talent discrepancy, both on the mound and at the plate.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.65 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. Performances like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez, who still owns the sharp 2.65 ERA, to go along with a super 1.31 WHIP and a 75/32 K/W over 74.2 innings of work.

Note as well that Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.33) who gave up two runs over six innings with four walks in a no-decision against the Orioles on Saturday. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, note that Gonzalez also has a 1.50 WHIP and just 58 K’s over 72.2 innings of work.

Note as well that Sanchez is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA at home this year.

Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is a super 22-16 (+2.9 units) this season in all night games, while Toronto is just 17-22 (-6.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Plays is on the Tampa Bay Rays (8*) (7:05 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this case, I believe that the red hot Blake Snell and the hungry Rays have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. 

Snell (8-3, 2.30 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out one over six innings in a victory over Seattle on Saturday. Snell’s current numbers rank him among the best in the American League right now and note that he’s 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA in all night games this year.

The home side counters with Domingo German (0-4, 5.32) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. 

German has impressive strikeout numbers, but note that he’s still 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all night games this season.

As mentioned off the top, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. And when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Snell is going to be able to carry over his momentum, while all signs point to the Yanks stumbling with German on the mound and after their highly publicized interleague series that finished with the Nationals yesterday.

Play on Tampa.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (2:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.31 ERA) who gave up two earned runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Saturday. 

Clevinger though has been as solid as Cleveland could possibly ask for this season and he has to be feeling confident here as he’s already a sharp 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Rodon (0-1, 3.60) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Boston in his season debut on Saturday. 

Rodon looked decent with seven K’s, but clearly the sample size is just too small to get an accurate read on the southpaw to this point. Note though that he was 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in all day games last season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is already 17-11 (+2.5 units) in all day games this year, while Chicago is already just 8-24 (-14 units) in all day games.

All things considered, I think this line could in fact be much larger. That swings the value to the under-priced favorite. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (4-6, 4.33 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Of his 13 starts this year, Mahle has now completed six frames just five times. Note that he owns a 2-3, 4.79 ERA in all night games thus far.

The home side counters with Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.12) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Athletics on Thursday. 

Hammel has looked a lot better of late, allowing just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings and I think the veteran carries that momentum over here into another solid outing.

Neither team or starter instills much confidence, but recent form displayed by Hammel suggests that he’s about to “get off the schneid” in a big way tonight. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I believe that Matt Boyd and the hungry home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup on their home field.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (7-5, 3.66 ERA) who looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after allowing two earned runs over nine innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Thursday. 

Berrios has for the most part been as solid as Minnesota could possibly ask for, but note that he does enter with a sub-par 2-3, 4.55 ERA on the road to this point.

Boyd (4-4, 3.20) comes in off a strong outing himself, giving up two earned runs off four hits, while striking out six over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Thursday. Note that Boyd has been especially tough on the opposition at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is a horrible 11-17 (-5.4 units) on the road this season, while Detroit is 21-16 (+11.4 units) at home. 

Everything points to a minor upset. Play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

I think the Giants will salvage the final game of this three-game set.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (2-4, 5.06 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Nationals on Friday. While his ERA is clearly nothing to write home about, note that he does own a sharp 47/9 K/W over 48 innings and his opposition is hitting only .256 off him.

The home side counters with Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.70) who gave up four hits over 5.1 scoreless innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Friday. 

Smith has been solid this season, but note that the Marlins are a poor 7-11 (-2.1 units) this year against southpaws, while San Fran is 13-12 (+3.8 units) in the same position.

I look for the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe that this line should in fact be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-1, 1.57 ERA) who struck out eight and walked two in a loss to the Yankees on Friday, in the end giving up three runs over eight innings of work. To go along with his sharp 1.57 ERA, note that DeGrom also sports an elite 1.01 WHIP (additionally note that he’s been at his best on the road so far with a 2-0, 1.57 ERA record thus far.)

The home side counters with Mike Soroka (1-1, 3.68) who returns to the rotation after a short stint on the DL. The 20-year old made two minor-league re-hab starts and he has been given the green light to go on Wednesday afternoon.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Soroka comes into this one with question marks still concerning his health, while DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the entire league right now.

All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).

I feel that the hard-throwing Lance McCullers and the defending champs could in fact be a lot larger favorites in this particular matchup.

McCullers (7-3, 3.94 ERA) gave up two earned runs off four hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. McCullers has to be feeling confident here that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s already dominated the A’s twice this year, giving up two runs while striking out ten over 12 innings of work.

The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (6-5, 3.45) who gave up six runs off five hits and three walks with three K’s over four innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. Of the five hits Mengden allowed, four were home runs. 

I’ll point out as well that Houston is 22-10 (+3.6 units) this year against the division, while Oakland is just 10-21 (-12.3 units) against divisional foes.

Recent form displayed by Mengden suggests that McCullers is the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) (9:40 EST).

Here’s another one in which I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, who was fortunate to earn a no-decision against the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up four runs off four hits and two walks over three innings while striking out only two. Williams comes into this one struggling across the board, having allowed at least four runs in five of his last six outings. 

The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (1-1, 1.88) who gave up two earned runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings against San Francisco on Wednesday. Note that it was his third straight quality start and he now owns a sharp 21/3 K/W and a 94.9 percent strand rate. 

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is already a poor 2-9 (-5.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona is already a strong 10-6 (+1.7 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 

I like Buchholz to continue his progression, while recent form displayed by Williams suggests that he has another long night ahead of him here. Great value, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Adam Plutko (3-0, 3.93 ERA), who has posted a sharp 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and 12/5 K/W over 18.1 innings for the Tribe this year. He faced the White Sox in his latest victory back on May 28th and was rocked for five runs over five innings, but the rookie was staked to an early insurmountable lead and he’d aggressively pepper the strike zone after that, which contributed to the higher runs allowed in that one.

The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-7, 4.92) who was rocked for seven earned runs off eight hits (including three home runs) in a loss to the Twins on Thursday. Shields has for the most part been a big disappointment once again this season and he comes into this one sporting a poor 57/33 K/W over 82.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 19-10 (+2 units) against teams with losing records, while Chicago is a horrible 7-20 (-7 units) against teams with winning records this year.

This is a matchup which highly favors the hard-hitting visiting side and this line could easily be larger. Play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (8:10 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be ruled out as a deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and seven walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Philadelphia on Thursday. Chatwood would need 107 pitches to post just 14 outs and he now sports an atrocious 53/56 K/W over 58.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Anderson comes into this one with a lackluster 43/26 K/W, but note that he’s been solid in all night games with a 4-2, 3.98 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is a poor 34-38 (-5.8 units) in its last 72 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Milwaukee is already 18-11 (+6.8 units) this season in front of the home town crowd.

Chatwood’s inconsistencies come back to bite him here and Anderson does just enough to secure the victory for the home side. Play on Milwaukee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.12 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Tuesday, going nine scoreless while walking one and striking out four. Heaney is limiting his opposition to a .218 batting average and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns an elite 58/19 K/W over 60.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 2.94) who gave up three runs off seven hits and three walks over four innings in a fortune no-decision against the Astros on Wednesday. LeBlanc has been decent in his limited time as a starter (expected to move back to the bullpen shortly), but I think the book is still out on the southpaw, as the sample size simply remains too small at this point to get a completely accurate read.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Heaney should be able to continue his mid-season progression, while everything points to another long-night for LeBlanc.

All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST).

I think that Junior Guerra and the hard-hitting home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Previous to this strong outing though, Quintana had been rocked for four runs over 4.1 innings. 

Guerra (3-4, 2.83) comes in off his third straight quality start most recently allowing three runs off seven hits with one walk over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, also going on to strike out five. Over his last three outings Guerra has posted a sparkling 15/1 K/W and suffice it to say I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over here. 

Milwaukee dropped its finale against Philadelphia yesterday, but it’s definitely woken up at the plate of late. Chicago has struggled with offensive consistency and I think that comes back to bite it again here as well.

Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST).

I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this matchup.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Steven Wright (2-0, 1.57 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Detroit on Tuesday, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out six over seven scoreless in the victory. 

Wright is expected to see extended time in the rotation with Drew Pomeranz out with injury and note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in all night contests thus far as a starter.

The home side counters with the volatile Dylan Bundy (4-7, 4.04) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing three hits and three walks over seven scoreless. Bundy has looked better of late after a stretch of futility, but he’s still just 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA at home and an atrocious 1-6 with a ballooned 7.68 ERA in all night games.

I’ll point out as well that Boston is 36-14 (+14.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 11-30 (-18.4 units) in the same position. 

I like Wright to at the very least match pace with the improving Bundy, but for the Red Sox’ big bats to do the rest. All things considered, a great price. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Braves (4:10 EST).

Atlanta held on for a 5-3 win last night and I think it offers great value as an underdog on Sunday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (7-1, 2.49 ERA), who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently going six scoreless while striking out four in a victory over San Diego on Tuesday. 

So far the southpaw has posted scoreless outings five times this year, going at least six frames in each of those. Note that Newcomb’s .201 batting average ties him for fourth best in the NL. I’ll also point out that he’s been at his best on the road with a 5-0, 1.79 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-1, 1.52) who comes in off a strong outing as well, going five scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. Over his last six starts Stripling has allowed just five runs.

I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are a poor 2-7 in their last nine after scoring three runs or less in their previous outing, while Atlanta is 15-5 (+13.6 units) in all day games.

LA has struggled with offensive consistency of late and I think Newcomb will take advantage. Play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 3:10 EST.

I had a free play on the Diamondbacks last night and they’d come from behind in the latter frames for a convincing 12-7 victory over the sliding Rockies and in my opinion, all signs point to another victory in Game 3 for the hard-hitting visiting side.

The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Godley (5-5, 5.12 ERA) who will look to return to form after allowing seven runs off five hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Giants on Monday. 

Godley has struggled of late, but he does have the track record and pedigree to get things turned around. 

Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (6-5, 3.48), who gave up three runs off nine hits and a walk over 6.2 innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. 

Freeland has looked decent of late, but I’ll point out that his team is now just 11-18 (-12.6 units) this year at home. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 15-8 (+8.8 units) this year against left-handed starters.

Momentum can be a very real, almost tangible factor at times and the Diamondbacks enter this one with a lot of it. I like Godley to bounce back and for Arizona to build off yesterday’s win.

Good luck…Larry

The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 1:35 EST.

The Phillies have lost back-to-back games against the Brewers in blowout fashion, but I think they’ll bounce back in the final contest of this three-game series.

The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 6.05 ERA) who is being called up from the minors to make this spot start. Woodruff has split time as a reliever and starter in a few appearances this season for the Brewers, but he’s so far struggled on the road with a ballooned 7.30 ERA.

The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.74), who comes in off a dominant effort over the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing one run off eight hits and a walk while striking out two over 7.2 innings in the eventual victory on Tuesday. 

Eflin has to be feeling confident that he can build off that performance, as so far he’s been solid at home with a 3.97 ERA.

I think the Brewers leave town satisfied to take two of three, well everything points to the home side salvaging the final game in this favorable matchup on the mound. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:10 EST).

The Cards held on for a 6-4 win yesterday afternoon and I think they offer ridiculous value in this matchup as well.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Carlos Martinez (3-2, 1.83 ERA) who returned from the DL against the Marlins on Tuesday, allowing two runs off four hits while striking out five over four innings in what turned out to be a shaky no-decision. 

With that awkward start under his belt though, I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to get back on track and continue his progression. Note that Martinez is a stellar 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with the volatile Anthony Desclafani (0-1, 7.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Tuesday. It was his first major league start since September 28th, 2016 and suffice it to say, further regression/struggles appear imminent in this tough matchup.

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis has dominated in this spot all year, going 7-3 (+3.2 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati has been an absolute train wreck by going 1-7 (-5.7 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (8*) 1:10 EST.

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Clayton Richard (4-6, 4.67 ERA) who allowed three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Richard has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road though with a 2-3, 6.26 ERA record thus far.

The home side counters with Jose Urena (1-7, 4.60) who finally got off the schneid with a victory against the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing four runs and a walk while striking out three over five innings. Urena’s win/loss record is not indicative of his overall performance this season and I think he’s going to build off his first win.

I’ll point out as well that Miami is now 4-1 in its last five against clubs with losing records, while San Diego is just 11-13 in the same position overall this season.

I look for Miami to bounce back after yesterday’s close 5-4 defeat. Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST).

I had a play on the red hot Mariners last night and I believe they offer great value as a slight dog on Saturday afternoon as well.

The visitors hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-4, 5.33 ERA) who comes in off a gem against these very Rays on Sunday, scattering five hits over eight frames and striking out seven with one walk.

While his ERA is nothing to write home about, his 62/29 K/W is more than acceptable and his 4.01 ERA in all night contests is decent as well.

The home side counters with Blake Snell (7-3, 2.36) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mariners, giving up two hits and striking out 12 with a walk over six innings. Snell has been fantastic this season and he seems to be getting better with every start. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, but after going 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year, regression at some point does seem imminent.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is already a superb 13-8 (+1.3 units) against southpaws this year, while Tampa is just 18-23 (-6.7 units) against right-handed starters.

I think that the Mariners continue to build momentum and I look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST).

I like the Phillies to bounce back at home this afternoon after yesterday’s setback.

The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (5-4, 4.55 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Suter has looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still owns a poor 5.01 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (5-3, 2.66) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five earned runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out four over six frames in a setback to San Francisco on Sunday. 

Arrieta has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in this spot though, as note that not only is he 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA in all night games this season, but he’s also 3-0 with a minuscule 0.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

Yesterday’s humbling loss, combined with Arrieta’s dominance at home do indeed make Philadelphia the correct call in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

I like the Jays to build off yesterday’s victory.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.63 ERA) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. Gausman has now given up 12 earned runs over his last two starts and note that he’s struggled in this spot all season by going 0-2 with a 4.54 ERA on the road and an atrocious 1-3 with a ballooned 7.99 ERA in all day games.

The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.48) who gave up one run off two hits with three walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over the Tigers on Sunday. This was easily Sanchez’s best start of the year and I believe he’s going to carry that momentum over into this one.

I’ll point out additionally that Baltimore is a terrible 11-29 (-17.4 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that.

Clearly the Yankees have the more powerful lineup, but for this particular selection I am indeed putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers.

One of these starters has been absolutely dominant from Day 1 this year, while the other continues to scuffle along, the beneficiary of great run support. Suffice it to say, I think Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.79 ERA) who earned a win against the Orioles despite giving up four runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings. Tanaka was “lucky” to receive a victory as he’d give up three solo home runs in that one. Note that he’s now given up nine homers over his last 26.2 innings of work and he’ll come into this one with a poor 2.0 HR/9. 

Also note that Tanaka has struggled with his consistency, as he’s completed just six innings once in his last five starts. And finally take note, while he does have a 5-0 record on the road, he owns an uninspiring 5.17 ERA away from friendly confines this season.

DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Saturday, allowing one run off seven hits with two walks while striking out 13 over seven innings. 

To go along with his elite ERA, DeGrom also owns a superb 1.04 WHIP and a spectacular 98/21 K/W over 72.1 innings of work. Also note that he’s been very sharp at home with a 2-0, 1.42 ERA record thus far.

Ultimately I think that Tanaka’s issues with the home run ball and longevity come back to bite him, while I look for DeGrom to finally get some support for once.

All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST).

Seattle has been rolling of late and I look for it to carry that momentum over on Friday night.

The visitors hand the ball to Marco Gonzalez (6-3, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off a third straight winning decision, giving up one run off five hits with two walks while striking out six over 6.2 innings against these very Rays on Saturday. Note that Gonzalez has now allowed one earned run spanning his last 26 innings of work. Additionally note that Gonzalez has been extremely solid on the road this season with a 4-2, 3.48 ERA record.

The home side counters with Wilmer Font (0-2, 9.78) who went two scoreless innings in a win over the A’s on Wednesday. Font has been given the green light to start this one as well, but note that he’ll only be in line for one or two innings of work. Additionally note that over his last five appearances he’s gone seven innings total, while posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with four K’s and five walks.

Font’s inability to go deep into this one is a big time detriment to the home team and I believe it opens the door for the surging Gonzalez and the red hot visiting side.

Lay the price, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors turn to David Hess (2-2, 3.47 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. Hess has looked decent, but clearly he draws a tough matchup on the road North of the border.

The home side goes with Jaime Garcia (2-4, 6.08), who comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, allowing four runs off seven hits over just 1.2 innings of work. 

Garcia has struggled for the most part this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home with a 1-1, 3.43 ERA record.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is a poor 2-7 in its last nine after shutting out an opponent in its previous game (just beat the Mets 1-0 yesterday.) Also note that Toronto is 6-2 in its last eight after failing to score more than two or more runs in its previous outing.

I think Hess takes a step back here and I look for Garcia to settle down in front of the home town crowd.

Lay the price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry