Cappers Sports Picks

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

I like Toronto to build off its 10-9 win on Saturday.

The Twins hand the ball to the volatile Kyle Gibson (7-10, 5.76 ERA) who earned a win over the soft-hitting White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off seven hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out eight.

Outings like that though have been few and far between for Gibson, who owns a poor 4.83 ERA on the road and who is just 1-7 with a 6.88 ERA in all “day” games.

The home side counters with Joe Biagini (3-8, 5.11) who has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 17 innigns in Triple-A. 

Biagini has been hit or miss in the big leagues this year, but he’s been at this best in all day contests with a respectable 3.93 ERA.

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 21-28 (-5.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Torotno is 26-23 (+2.2 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Dillon Gee (1-0, 2.84 ERA) who grabbed a win in just his second start of the season by allowing one run over six innings against the light-hitting White Sox in his last outing.

Clearly Gee faces a much stiffer test on the road against the hard-hitting Jays this afternoon though (note that Gee was just 3-5 with a 5.10 ERA on the road last season and only 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA in all “day” games.)

Toronto counters with Marco Estrada (5-8, 5.07) who gave up three runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. 

Estrada has looked a lot better of late, having posted a quality effort in four of his last five trips to the hill.

I think Estrada continues his progression and takes advantage of familiar surroundings and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is great value on the Blue Jays. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (10:10 EST).

I think that Chase Anderson and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup.

Anderson (7-2, 2.83 ERA) gave up one earned run off two hits over five innings in an 8-4 victory over Colorado on Sunday. It was his first start since suffering an oblique injury and he looked great overall. Anderson will now be looking to improve upon his 4-2 (3.60 ERA) road record.

The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (11-5, 3.88) who gave up four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Detroit on Sunday. 

Granted starts like that have been few and far between for Maeda this year, but I’ll point out that the Dodgers are interestingly just 1-3 (-2.7 units) in their last four after scoring five runs or less in their previous game.

I think Anderson can match Maeda inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value absolutely swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

Travis Wood has been decent of late for the Padres. So too has Adam Conley for the Marlins.

Ultimately I don’t trust Wood (especially on the road) and I look for Conley to take advantage of familiar surroundings and continue his recent surge.

Wood (3-4, 5.81 ERA) gave up one unearned run off three hits over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. 

It was probably Wood’s best start of the year, but note that the hard-hitting Nationals were without sluggers Daniel Murphy and Byrce Harper because of injury.

And despite the recent uptick in play, note that Wood is a terrible 1-3 with a ballooned 7.66 ERA on the road this year. 

Conley (6-5, 4.93) has been much better on the road (4-2, 2.88) than at home this season (2-3, 7.52), but he comes in off a gem against the Mets on Sunday, allowing one run off three hits to go along with 11 strikeouts over seven innings of work. 

The hard-throwing left-hander has now posted back-to-back wins and note that the Fish themselves have excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 3-1 (+2.3 units) in their last four after scoring nine or more runs in their previous game.

I think regression is imminent for Wood and all signs point to Conley continuing his progression. In my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value, play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think that the home field advantage will play a part in the final outcome.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Martin Perez (8-10, 5.26 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a fortunate victory over the White Sox on Saturday. 

Note that Perez has been particularly average on the road this year by going just 2-4 with a 4.88 ERA.

The home side counters with Troy Scribner (2-0, 3.46) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. Scribner owns a 4.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go along with 103 strikeouts over 103 innings in the minors this year. 

His peripherals suggest that rockier times could be ahead, but regardles of that he still owns a very respectable 2.70 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 46-48 (-2.6 units) in all “night” games, while LA is 49-45 (+8 units) in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

Clearly this is an even pitching matchup. On any given night either one of these starters could beat the other.

However, I think that Dallas Keuchel has a big advantage from throwing at home tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.24 ERA) who took the loss against San Diego on Saturday despite giving up just two runs over six innings. It was his first start back from a minor elbow injury and the hard-throwing right-hander looked good. 

It’s hard to say anything negative about Strasburg, so I won’t bother. I simply feel this is a bad spot for him and the Nationals (note that Washington is a poor 9-10, -4.4 units in all interleague games this year.)

Keuchel (11-2, 2.58) went seven scoreless against the A’s on Friday, giving up three hits and striking out three for his second straight victory. Keuchel would go on to induce 17 groundouts. 

Note that he’s been especially tough at home as well by going 5-1 with a minuscule 1.35 ERA (I’ll point out as well that Houston is a superb 12-4, +7.1 units in all interleague games thus far.) 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

When I released this pick I got it in the mid-juice range. Last night I released a play on Boston at +177 and earned the victory. I love this play and expect the hard-hitting visiting side to build off its first two victories in this series with another big performance tonight.

The Red Sox hand the ball to ace Chris Sale (14-5, 2.62 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out nine over seven frames in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. 

It wasn’t a horrible effort, but clearly wasn’t good enough to get the job done. Performances like that though have been few and far between for Sale, who will now look to bounce back and improve upon his already impressive 8-3, 2.30 ERA road record.

The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.50) who went 6.1 scoreless innings with seven hits and two walks in a victory over the Royals on Saturday. Bauer has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but I’ll point out that that Tribe are just 23-24 (-11.8 units) against southpaws this year.

Conversely the Red Sox are 59-39 (+11 units) against right-handed starters. 

I think the momentum that the surging Bo-Sox have created is real. I also like Sale to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (12:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.11 ERA) who returns to the rotation after taking August off because of concussion protocol. Ray struck out 11 batters through 4.2 innings in his only minor-league re-hab start and to go along with his solid 3.11 ERA he also owns an elite 151/58 K/W through 118.2 innings of work.

Note that Ray has been at his best on the road as well by going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. 

The home side counters with Rafael Montero (2-8, 5.47) who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run off six hits and three walks while striking out five over six innings against the Marlins on Saturday. 

Montero has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s been consistently at his worst in front of the home town crowd this season by going just 1-7 with a ballooned 5.89 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 55-43 (+8.6 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 12-18 (-6.1 units) against southpaws.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I think that Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting Red Sox have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as I look for the visitors to build off their commanding 9-1 victory yesterday.

Pomeranz (12-4, 3.31 ERA) left his last start against the Yanks early because of back spasms. He’s been cleared to go tonight though. Before he left he threw 3.1 shutout innings to go along with four strikeouts. Pomeranz had posted three victories and a 2.30 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his previous five trips to the mound (is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA on the road.)

The home side counters with Corey Kluber (12-3, 2.67) who has also been cleared to play after an ankle issue. Kluber has won all four starts he’s made in August with a 1.78 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. 

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is just 22-23 (-11.1 units) against southpaws this year and only 8-9 (-10.8 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range, while Boston is 2-1 (+2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and 57-39  (+7.6 units) against right-handed starters.

I like Pomeranz to match Kluber inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog in my opinion.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

I like Angels’ veteran Ricky Nolasco to take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his inconsistent counterpart tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (3-2, 7.02 ERA) who gave up five runs off five hits with six walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the White Sox on Thursday. 

Ross owns an ugly 31/31 K/W over 42.1 innings of work (just a 5.92 ERA at home.)

Nolasco (6-12, 5.16) comes in off a 3-2 win over Washington Wednesday, giving up two runs while striking ouf five over 5.2 innings of work.

Neither starter instills much confidence, but I’ll point out that Texas is just 45-47 (-3 units) in all “night” games this year, while LA is 48-44 (+8.5 units) in all night contests. 

I believe Ross’ road ineptitude continues here and I like Nolasco to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (5-2, 4.74 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a win over Atlanta on Wednesday. 

Gray has been solid of late, but note that he’s still just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.34 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Danny Duffy (7-8, 3,82) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings while striking out eight in a no-decision against Oakland on Wednesday. 

Duffy has been a bit inconsistent of late, but he has still posted a 24/4 K/W ratio over his last 17 innings of work (note that he owns a 3.14 ERA at home and is 6-4 with a 3.28 ERA in all “night” games as well.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is just 1-4 (-3.4 units) in its last five on the road, while KC is 33-29 (+5.2 units) at home this year.

I think Gray continues to struggle on the road and I like Duffy to bounce back big in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (10-9, 4.67 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday. Previous to that Lackey had won his past five trips to the hill while posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 during that span. 

The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (4-6, 8.44) who gave up six runs off seven hits and five walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs throwing opposite Lackey. 

Bailey has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, showing flashes of brilliance at times, but looking downright terrible in others. Note though that he’s definitely been at his worst at home this year, going 0-4 with an atrocious 14.33 ERA.

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 19-9 (+7.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is just 5-11 (-4 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (4:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (11-5, 2.49 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Angels on Tuesday, allowing two hits with four strikeouts over six scoreless innings. 

The crafty southpaw has allowed just three earned runs over his last 28 innings of work and has posted quality outings in nine of his last ten trips to the hill (has been very sharp on the road as well by going 8-3 with a 3.15 ERA.) 

The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (7-4, 4.78) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday. Lamet has looked better of late and has been better at home than on the road, but note that he’s still owns a poor 5.56 ERA in all “day” games this year.

I’ll point out as well that Washington is 56-37 (+2.8 units) this season against right-handed starters, while San Diego is just 13-19 (-2.5 units) against southpaws. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST).

I like Colorado to bounce back here after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat. 

The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (6-2, 2.89 ERA) who gave up five runs over 7.2 innings spanning two rehab starts.

Anderson was excellent before his injury, but clearly he draws a first tough matchup at hitter friendly Coors Field.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-7, 3.74) who gave up three runs off four hits over six innings while striking out five in a no-decision to ATL on Tuesday. 

Freeland has been at his best at home this year (which is clearly surprising), going 6-4 with a highly respectable 3.31 ERA.

I’m giving Freeland the big nod in this particular matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-hitting home side in my opinion. All things considered, this is a very fair price, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (1:30 EST).

I like the visitors to build off their 4-3 upset win yesterday. And it was a big upset, as CC Sabathia outlasted Chris Sale to pull off the huge dog victory.

New York has to be feeling pretty confident it can have a repeat performance here by sending the capable Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.37 ERA) to the hill, he most recently gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday, also striking out five. 

Gray has been extremely consistent of late, going six innings and allowing exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts (note that Gray is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in all “day” games this year as well.)

The home side counters with the volatile Rick Porcello (7-14, 4.59) who has looked better of late with back-to-back quality outings. Porcello though has been consistently inconsistent all season and he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent at home by going just 5-8 with a ballooked 5.13 ERA.

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Porcello has another long afternoon ahead of him against these hungry Yankees. The correct call is on Gray.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST).

Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (14-5, 3.01 ERA) who comes in off an interleague win over the Astros on Monday, going 6.2 scoreless in the 2-0 victory. 

Note that while he’s 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home, Greinke is a rather pedestrian 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Jose Berrios (10-5, 4.27) who has gotten two extra days off after his most recent start was pushed back due to a rain-out. Berrios has struggled over his last two starts, but should benefit here from a couple extra days rest (note that he’s been at his best at home as well this year by going 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA.)

These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, with Arizona at 7-10 (-2.5 units) in August and Minnesota at 11-6 (+5.4 units) this month.

I’m banking on the Twins continuing their hot summer surge and for Berrios’ consistent home play to get the better of Greinke’s mediocre road performance. Play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST).

I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Robert Stephenson (0-4, 6.64 ERA) who was recently activated from the DL and who threw two scoreless innings in relief against Milwaukee on Sunday.

Stephenson hasn’t started since August 2nd and is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Julio Teheran (7-10, 4.98) who comes in off a gem against Colorado on Monday, going seven scoreless with eight strikeouts in the unfortunate no-decision. 

Teheran has actually been much better on the road than at home this year, but he does have the pedigree and track record to build off his last performance and to finish the campaign strong.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 23-28 (-2.8 units) this season following a victory, while Atlanta is 3-1 (+2.8 units) in its last four following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very legitimate deciding factor in the final outcome in this particular matchup on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (1-4, 5.76 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out five over 5.1 innings against the Mets on Sunday. 

Since being re-called from the minors Eflin is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA (he’s also just 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA in all “night” games this year.)

The home side counters with Matt Moore (3-12, 5.71) who comes in off a gem against the Nationals on Sunday, allowing two runs off seven hits and no walks over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortuante no-decision. He’d also strike out nine. 

It was the fifth time this year that he’d issue no walks and I think the veteran carries that momentum over here.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 4-12 (-7.2 units) in August, while San Francisco is 9-7 (+2.8 units) this month.

This line could easily be much larger in my opinion. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

Jordan Montgomery has a tough task ahead of him in Boston tonight.

Montgomery (7-6, 3.94 ERA) received a no-decision against the Yanks on Sunday, allowing one run with three walks over 5.1 innings. 

Montgomery has been exceptional in his rookie campaign, but is still a pedestrian 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (12-4, 3.39) who gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out five over 6.2 innings in a victory over New York on Saturday. 

The crafty southpaw has now won six straight trips to the hill and nine out of his last ten outings overall (note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA at home to this point.)

These teams are clearly moving in opposite directions right now, with New York having gone just 7-8 (-4 units) in August and Boston going 11-2 (+9.5 units) this month.

I’m banking on these trends continuing here. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST).

I think that Adam Wainwright and the hard-hitting Cardinals have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Wainwright (12-5, 4.87 ERA) comes in off a win against the Braves on friday, giving up one run over seven innings of work. Wainwright has been better at home than on the road this season, but the veteran has the pedigree and track record to close the campaign strong and I’m expecting him to carry that momentum over here.

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.50) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Friday. 

Taillon has looked better over his last two starts, which was preceded by a couple of disastrous outings. Despite his recent uptick, note that he’s still just 3-3 with a poor 4.88 ERA at home this season.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions, with St. Louis having already gone 9-6 (+2.2 units) in August, while Pittsburgh has gone 7-8 (-2.8 units) this month.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (2:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.52 ERA) who actually comes in off his best start of the year, striking out eight over 6.2 scoreless innings against the Cubs on Saturday. 

Corbrin has 133 strikeouts over his 135.1 innings of work this season, but while he’s a great 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he’s a horrible 2-8 with an atrocious 6.79 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Mike Fiers (7-7, 4.36) who comes in off one of his worst starts of the year, giving up six earned runs over four innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. 

Note though that while he’s just 2-4 at home, he does own a very respectable 3.68 ERA in Houston (also note that he’s 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA in all “day” games.)

I think Corbrin’s road struggles continue and I expect some immediate regression for the southpaw after his latest gem. I also believe that all signs point to Fiers fighting back with a much better effort in this favorable spot. Lay the price, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

I like Houston to build off its decisive 9-4 victory in Arizona last night and continue the interleague domination in front of the home town crowd.

The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (6-6, 3.76 ERA) who was crushed for five runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. 

Walker is now winless in his last eight trips to the hill and he’s served up eight home runs over his last six starts.

The Astros counter with Charlie Morton (9-5, 3.83) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs (three earned) while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Friday. 

Morton hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA.

Recent form suggests that Morton is going to be able to bounce back at home, while I expect Walker’s struggles to carry over. All things considered, a very fair price on the hard-hititng home side in my opinion. Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

I like Boston to build off its decisive 10-4 victory over St. Louis last night.

The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (10-6, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with five walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Thursday. 

Lynn has been better than expected for the Cards this year, but his peripherals (.226 BABIP and 4.83 FIP) point to imminent regression.

The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 3.80) who comes in off a gem against the Yanks on Friday, allowing no runs off two scattered hits to go along with seven strikeouts over six innings. 

Rodriguez is picking up steam again having now posted back-to-back quality outings (note that he’s 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA at home.)

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after allowing ten runs or more, while Boston is 4-2 (+1.7 units) in its last six after scoring ten runs or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-7, 4.45 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Phillies on Wednesday. Newcomb has just two quality starts out of his last seven trips to the hill and he is just 1-5 with a pedestrian 4.68 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-7, 3.70) who returns after a short stint on the ten-day DL following a minor groin pull. Freeland has been much more consistent than his counterpart overall this year and he’s been at his best at Coors Field by going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. 

I’ll point out as well that Atlanta is just 26-36 (-3 units) this year following a loss, while Colorado is 36-29 (+7.1 units) following a victory. 

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Newcomb has another long night in store for him. Play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (8:05 EST).

I think that Luis Castillo and the Reds have much more than just a “punchers” chance in this one. The Cubs won decisively yesterday, setting up a classic “letdown” spot on Tuesday in my opinion.

Castillo (2-5, 3.73 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Thursday. 

Castillo has now posted four quality starts out of his last six trips to the hll and he’s now averaging almost a strikeout per inning (note that he owns a highly respectable 2.97 ERA on the road this year.)

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.70) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Wednesday. Hendricks has been good at times this year, not great, and owns a rather pedestrian 2-2, 3.92 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is already 11-7 (+6.2 units) this season after allowing ten runs or more, while Chicago is just 30-31 (-15.1 units) following a victory.

The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST).

I think San Francisco bounces back here after falling 8-3 yesterday (I had a play on Miami in that one.)

The visitors hand the ball to ace Madison Bumgarner (2-5, 2.71 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-1 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. 

The big left-hander has now posted three straight quality outings (posting seven K’s in each) and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 3.21 ERA road record.

The home side counters with Dan Straily (7-8, 3.74) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out just one over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. 

Straily has been very consistent overall this year, but I’ll point out that Miami is just 3-8 (-5.1 units) already this season after three or more consecutive victories.

I like Bumgarner to outduel Straily and as I stated off the top, I look for the Giants to bounce back off yesterday’s defeat. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Collin McHugh (0-1, 5.32 ERA) who gave up seven runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the soft-hitting White Sox on Wednesday. 

McHugh has consistently been at his worst on the road with a big 6.75 ERA thus far.

The home side counters with Zack Greinke (13-5, 3.14) who gave up three runs off four hits over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday.

Greinke hasn’t been completely perfect this year, but he’s been very consistent overall. And note, he’s consistently been at his most consistent at home this season by going 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA to this point.

I like Greinke to continue his home dominance and I expect McHugh to once again struggle on the road. All things considered, I believe this is a very fair price. Play on the Diamondbacks.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

I think Adam Conley has the home field advantage factor working in his favor in this particular matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Ty Blach (8-7, 4.15 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a 6-3 win over the Cubs on Tuesday.

Blach has been decent of late, posting a 2.98 ERA over his last seven starts, but his paltry 5.2 K/9 leaves something to be desired. 

And note, despite the recent surge Blach has consistently been at his worst on the road by going just 3-3 with a poor 5.06 ERA thus far.

Conley (4-5, 5.43) comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs off 11 hits in a 10-1 loss to the hard-hitting Nationals on Wednesday. Conley has stunk over his last two starts, which comes after posting three straight quality outings after the all-star break.

Conley’s team will look to get him back into the winners circle tonigh, as note this is a spot in which Miami has excelled in for bettors of late, going 14-8 (+7.8 units) in its last 22 against teams with losing records.

Conversely, note that San Francisco is just 7-13 (-8.4 units) in its last 20 against clubs with losing records.

I like Conley to bounce back here and match Blach inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value falls onto the home side. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA) who has been activated after a foot contusion hampered his progress over the last week. Odorrizi has been better on the road (3-1, 4.21) than at home this year (3-4, 4.48) 

The home side counters with Nick Tepesch (0-2, 9.00) who has been recalled from the minors to make this start. Earlier in the season Tepesch made one spot start for Minnesota and he’d go on to give up seven runs before then being immediately traded to Toronto. 

I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay is 44-38 (+3.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Toronto is a money-burning 44-44 (-5.8 units) against right-handed starters.

Odorizzi has been far from perfect this season, but he still gets a big nod over Tepesch in this matchup. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:10 EST).

Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas (13-6, 3.40 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against St. Louis on Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings. 

Vargas now looks to get back on track and improve upon his still impressive 6-3, 3.53 ERA record on the road.

The home side counters with Derek Holland (6-11, 5.25) who gave up three runs off five hits over 5.2 innings in a win over the Astros on Tuesday. 

Holland though has still been unable to post a quality start in six of his past seven trips to the hill and note that he’s been particularly average in this spot all season by going just 3-6 with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA at home.

I like Vargas to outduel his volatile counterpart, so lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (1:10 EST).

In my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” 

The visitors hand the ball to ace Ervin Santana (12-7, 3.27 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs (just two earned) off six hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Monday. 

To go along with his solid 3.27 ERA, Santana also sports a sharp 1.11 WHIP and 7.1 K/9. 

And note that Santana has been at his absolute best on the road this year by going 8-2 with a tiny 2.52 ERA. 

The home side counters with Matt Boyd (5-6, 5.64 ERA) who gave up six runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. 

Boyd has completely fallen apart of late, having now allowed nine runs over his last 8.1 innings of work spanning two starts (note that Boyd has been terrible at home this year as well with a ballooned 5.05 ERA thus far.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 31-23 (+15.3 units) on the road this year, while Detroit is just 27-28 (-4.6 units) at home. 

I like Santana to easily outduel his volatile counterpart, which in my opinion drastically tips the scales in favor of the visitors this afternoon. Play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (9:05 EST).

Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and quite poor in others, however I think that Sean Manaea will benefit from the home field advantage tonight.

The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (11-8, 4.15 ERA) who comes in off a win against the Angels on Monday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out ten over seven innings. 

It was likely Bundy’s best start of the year. He’s been hit or miss this season though and does own a poor 4.55 ERA on the road this season.

Manaea (8-6, 4.15) comes in off an outing to forget against the Angels on Sunday, giving up six runs over just 3.1 innings of work. The southpaw has looked shaky over his last two starts but has a big opportunity here to turn things around as he’s already a very respectable 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA at home this season.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 21-35 (-13 units) on the road this season, while Oakland is 31-28 (+2.3 units) at home.

I think Bundy’s road struggles continue and I expect Manaea to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is a great price, play on the A’s.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-6 defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Steven Matz (2-5, 5.77 ERA) who gave up five earned runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in an 8-0 loss to LA on Sunday. Matz has now lost seven straight starts and to go along with his horrible 5.77 ERA, he also sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP.

The home side counters with Aaron Nola (8-7, 3.12) who comes in off a gem against the Rockies in Colorado on Sunday, giving up two runs with seven strikeouts over seven innings.

It was Nola’s ninth straight quality start, a strech in which no opponent has yet to score more than two runs off him (note that Nola has been particularly effective at home by going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA.)

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 23-20 (+8.4 units) against the division this year, while New York is just 23-24 (-5.4 units) against the division. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (6:10 EST).

I think home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker for the surging Jordan Zimmermann this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (10-5, 3.86 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits whiel striking out six over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Rangers on Sunday. Berrios has for the most part been very solid this year, but if he’s had one weakness it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA.

Zimmermann (7-9, 5.27) most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over seven frames in a loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Tigers’ veteran has now posted three straight quality starts (he’s 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home.)

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 8-10 (-3.4 units) in its last 18 against teams with losing record,s while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four against clubs with winning records.

I think Zimmermann continues his progression and outduels Berrios in front of the home town crowd. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I think Cole Hamels will take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his counterpart this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (9-4, 3.78 ERA) who struck out seven and gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Saturday. Morton has been strong since returning from the DL, but still owns a pedestrian 4.08 ERA on the road this season.

Hamels (6-1, 3.59) comes in off a complete game against the Twins on Saturday, giving up one unearned run and posting five K’s in the victory. 

Hamels has been a bit inconsistent of late, but he’ll now look to build off perhaps his finest outing of the sason. And note, he has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s already 4-0 with a respectable 3.12 ERA at home this year.

I like Hamels to continue his strong play at home and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price. Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST).

These starters are pretty evenly matched, but I don’t think that the “home field advantage” can be overlooked as a genuine factor this evening.

The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (4-2, 4.94 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the soft-hitting Phillies on Saturday, allowing one run off six hits over seven innings in the victory. 

Gray has been sharp of late, but if he’s had one glaring weakness this season it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.67 ERA.

The home side counters with Jose Urena (10-5, 3.70) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Braves on Sunday.

To go along with his solid 3.70 ERA, Urena also sports a respectable 1.19 WHIP (owns a 3.49 ERA at home as well.) 

I think Gray’s road struggles carry over here and Urena continues his steady play in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (12-5, 3.36 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings while also striking out eight in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers on Friday. 

DeGrom looks to bounce back now, he’s still struck out at least eight opponents in five of his last seven starts, posting a tiny 2.64 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and elite 10.8 K/9 over that stretch (note that he’s 10-3 with a 3.57 ERA in all “night” games as well.)

The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (2-6, 4.82) who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Friday, a little lucky to receive a no-decision as he’d also walk six opponents. 

Velasquez has been a disappoinment this year and note that he’s just 1-4 with a poor 5.54 ERA at home thus far.

I’ll also point out that New York is 7-5 (+1.1 units) already this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 3-10 (-5.9 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST).

Last night I had a play on the Cards and they’d go on to smash the Royals 10-3 in KC. With the shift in venue, I like the underdog visitors to return the favor and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The Royals hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (4-3, 4.13 ERA) who gave up two runs while stirking out three over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Seattle on Thursday. 

Cahill has been hit or miss this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games, going 3-1 with a very respectable 3.96 ERA.

The home side counters with Mike Leake (7-10, 3.34) who gave up three runs off eight hits while striking out three over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Friday. 

Leake has been scuffling for a while now, having allowed 15 runs over his last 28.2 innings of work while dropping four of his last five decisions.

I’ll point out as well that KC is 43-35 (+12.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while St. Louis is just 42-45 (-9.8 units) against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

Both of these veteran starters opened the 2017 season promisingly, but each has scuffled of late. I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor today though.

The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (10-8, 3.66 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits while stirking out five over six innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Friday. It was the third straight outing that Nova has failed to register a quality start and note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road this year, so far just 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA away from friendly confines.

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (7-7, 4.20) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out ten over seven innings in a victory over Baltimore on Friday. 

Verlander has in fact looked better of late, having held his opposition scoreless in back-to-back outings while posting quality efforts in each of his last four trips to the mound (note that he’s been at this best at home as well with a 4-2, 3.29 ERA record thus far.) 

I’ll point out as well that PIttsburgh is just 12-19 (-6.4 units) this year in all road games when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Detroit is 13-9 (+1.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (3:45 EST).

Kyle Hendricks has been decent in three starts since returning from the DL, but Madison Bumgarner has quietly been dominating since his return from injury and I think he’ll get the better of his counterpart today.

Hendricks (4-4, 3.81 ERA) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over seven innigns in a loss to Washington on Friday (could have been a lot worse, as two of the hits were home runs.) 

Last year Hendricks gave up 15 home runs in 190 innings of work. This season he’s allowed 11 in 78 frames of work.

Bumgarner (1-5, 2.88) gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Arizona on Friday. 

Bumgarner was sharp though, inducing 16 swinging strikes on 104 pitches and posting his second straight quality effort in a row.

I think Bumgarner is throwing at a much higher level than Hendricks right now and I like the home side to build off its 6-3 victory on Tuesday. All things considered, great value on the Giants this afternoon.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

I like Michael Wacha to build off his recent stretch of dominance and score a victory on the road in this tough interleague matchup.

Wacha (8-4, 3.66 ERA) gave up one run while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Thursday. 

Wacha had pitched into the sixth inning in each of his previous six starts while posting an elite 1.86 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 during that stretch. 

The home side counters with Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10) who most recently gave up three runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Baltimore on Wednesday. Vargas has been excellent at home (2.71 ERA), but has now posted 125 innings this season (compared to just 55 total frames over the past two campaigns.)

I’m going to give Wacha the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-throwing right-hander in my opinion. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Luis Perdomo (5-6, 4.92 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 5-2 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday. 

Perdomo has now bee shelled for at least four runs in five of his last six starts (note that he’s been very poor on the road with a 1-4, 4.57 ERA record and also owns a ballooned 5.71 ERA in all “night” games.)

The home side counters with Sal Romano (2-3, 4.88) who gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Pirates on Thursday. Romano has been pretty average in his rookie campaign, but his 8.5 K/9 is pretty good.

The bottom line: Between these struggling starters, I’ll give the nod to the Reds’ line-up. Both teams aren’t known for their offensive prowess, but the Friars are at the very bottom of the barrel. All things considered a great price on the Reds.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

I think Ervin Santana and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. 

The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (2-2, 3.04 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out seven over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. 

Admittedly, performances like that have been few and far between for Suter and his numbers remain solid across the board, I simply feel he’s in the wrong spot at the wrong time.

Santana (12-7, 3.28) gave up two runs off four hits while striking out nine in a complete-game victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Santana would go on to throw 82 of his 110 pitches for strikes (so far Santana has thrown five complete games this season.)

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

I like Santana to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the Twins to take full advantage. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Detroit Tigers (7:05 EST).

I think that Jordan Zimmermann and the visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Zimmermann (7-8, 5.35 ERA) enters on quite the surge, most recently holding the Yanks scorless over seven frames in a 2-0 victory on Wednesday, also going on to strike out six.

Zimmermann was efficient in throwing 66 of 92 pitches for strikes and has now posted a quality outing in three of his last four starts (and has gone three straight starts without issuing a walk.) 

The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Williams (4-4, 4.74) who comes in off a decent outing against the soft-hitting Reds on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits over five innings. 

Williams has been solid, but not spectacular this year (note that he’s 0-1 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA at home so far this season.) 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have.

While Williams has been serviceable of late, Zimmermann has been downright dominant. I like the Tigers’ vet to continue his progression and all things considered, I do indeed feel that the underdog is the correct call here. Play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST).

Ultimately I think that Hyun-Jin Ryu is getting too much respect in this matchup.

Ryu (3-6, 3.83 ERA) comes in off a no-decision against the Giants on Sunday, allowing no runs off five hits over five innings of work. Ryu has been decent (not spectacular) this season and is 1-4 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” games.

The home side counters with Steven Matz (2-4, 5.50) who also gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five-plus innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. 

Matz has struggled overall this year, but has a respectable 2-2, 3.82 ERA in all “night” contests.

Regression seems imminent for Ryu, while I think Matz will build off his last start. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of great line value. Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:35 EST).

While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think that Ubaldo Jimenez has the advantage (mostly because of the home field factor.)

The visitors hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 5.83 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Yanks on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the victory. In his previous start he gave up four runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings. 

Note that Sanchez has been poor in all “day” contests with a 7.39 ERA.

Jimenez (4-7, 6.56) has also struggled for the most part this year, but the veteran did post back-to-back quality outings to close July, allowing a total of three earned runs while striking out 15 over 13 innings of work. 

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 15-21 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Baltimore is 10-5 (+3 units) as a home fav between -125 and -175. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST).

Both of these starting pitchers have put together strong seasons, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as genuine factor in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (9-5, 3.37 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a 3-2 victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. 

Nelson’s numbers are solid across the board, putting up “ace like” stats for the first time in his career, but if he’s had one weak point it would have to be his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.66 ERA. 

The home side counters with Chris Archer (8-6, 3.89) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a hard-fought 6-4 win over Houston on Tuesday. 

Archer has been solid in this spot so has to be feeling confident, posting a 3.47 ERA at home and going 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in all “day” contests.

I like Archer to continue his strong play at home and get the better of his interleague counterpart this afternoon. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Paul Blackburn (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings in a fortunate victory over the Giants on Monday. 

The rookie has been solid across the board, but if his last performance was any indicator, further regression seems imminent in my opinion.

The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 3.99) who has been activated from the 60-day DL to make this start. In his final rehab Skaggs performed well and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his solid 3.99 ERA and 29 strikeouts over five big league starts this season.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 17-36 (-15.5 units) on the road this year, while LA is 30-23 (+5.5 units) at home. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (5-1, 4.01 ERA) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Monday. 

To go along with his respectable ERA, Hamels also sports a decent 1.13 WHIP and note that he’s 4-1 with a 4.04 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (6-8, 6.08) who returns to the rotation after a stint in Triple-A. Note that Gibson has been particularly horrible at home by going just 3-5 with a 6.71 ERA.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have when trying to assess starting pitchers is “recent performance.” Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Gibson has another very tough night ahead of him. 

Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (7-6, 4.15 ERA) who has exceeded expectations as a rookie this year. Note that Montgomery is just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA on the road thus far.

The home side counters with Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.63) who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over six innings while stirking out eight in a 9-3 victory over the White Sox on Friday. 

In two starts since re-joining the rotation, Salazar has posted a tiny 1.38 ERA and 16/2 K/W over 13 innings of work (note that despite just a 1-3 record, Salazar does own  a respectable 3.82 ERA at home while holding the opposition to a tiny .191 BAA.)

I look for Montgomery’s pedestrian ways on the road to contine and I expect Salazar to continue his dominance at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

While John Lackey has been far from perfect this season, I still think he has a major advantage over his volatile counterpart.

The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (2-1, 3.75 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a 3-1 victory over the Rockies on Sunday. 

Jackson has looked decent in his limited time in a starters role this year, but I’ll point out that he was just 1-4 with an 8.81 ERA on the road as a starter last season.

Lackey (8-9, 4.87) comes in off a win against Milwaukee on Sunday, giving up two earned runs off five hits while striking out seven over six innings. 

Amazingly the veteran has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, over his last four starts spanning 22 innings he’s given up just eight earned runs while striking out 16. 

Lackey has the pedigree and track record to finish up strong, note that last season he was 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA at home.

Regression looks imminent for Jackson. Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:15 EST).

Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Jason Hammel has another long night in store for him.

The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (11-3, 2.68 ERA) who went six scoreless against the Mets on Sunday, striking out eight and walking none. Over his past four starts Paxton has posted a 34/1 K/W spanning 26 innings (is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA on the road and 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA in al “night” games overall.)

Hammel (5-8, 4.75) was just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in six July starts. 

Unfortunately for Hammel a date at home is not necessarily what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s just 3-4 with a poor 4.68 ERA in KC thus far.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST).

Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Yu Darvish has another long night in store for him.

Darvish (6-9, 4.01) makes his first start for his new team, but in his last start for his old team he gave up a career-high ten runs over just 3.2 innings (note that he’s been pretty pedestrian in all “night” games this year as well, going just 4-6 with a 4.36 ERA.

The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (12-4, 3.29) who gave up three runs while striking out ten over six innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday. 

DeGrom has now allowed only six earned runs over his last four starts and he’ll have to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA at home and 10-2 with a 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. 

A lot of pressure on Darvish in his first start for his new team, while DeGrom has been on “cruise control” for months now. All things considered, I believe this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (6:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-9, 3.29 ERA) who gave up three runs while stirking out four over five innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. 

It’s been an up and down season for Leake, but he does own a very respectable 4-3, 3.42 ERA record on the road this year.

The home side counters with Asher Wojciechowski (1-1, 4.50), who has been decent in a long relief role, but who owns a 7.79 ERA in four starts this season (giving up six home runs in that span.)

Leake could/should easily be a much larger fav in this matchup. I think this is great value on the hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I don’t think that home field can be overlooked as a signficant factor once the smoke clears at the end of this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (8-7, 4.93 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday. 

Roark has looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others, note that he’s a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.77 ERA in all “day” games this season.

Chicago counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.80) who comes in off a gem against the Brewers on Saturday, giving up one run off six hits while striking out three over five innings. Hendricks has looked good in two starts back from the DL and he has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA at home thus far.

Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Roark has another long afternoon ahead of him. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST).

LA has taken the first two games of this interleague matchup and I like the home side to complete the sweep in what is another clear mismatch on the mound.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the soft-hitting Braves on Saturday. 

Eickhoff has looked better of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Parker Bridwell (5-1, 2.83) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over 7.1 innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Friday. Bridwell has held opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his four starts this month (is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA at home and 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA in all “night” games as well.) 

I’ll also point out that Philadelphia is just 4-11 (-4 units) in all interleague games this year, while LA is 9-8 (+1.5 units) in all interleague contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST).

I like the Astros to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat.

The vistors hand the ball to Blake Snell (0-6, 4.87 ERA) who gave up three earned runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision on Saturday. It was the third consecutive start that the southpaw has given up a home run and to go along with his poor 4.87 ERA, Snell also sports an unattractive 1.55 WHIP (owns a 4.76 ERA on the road.)

The home side counters with Colin McHugh (0-0, 4.22) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday. It was a huge step in the right direction after a shaky season debut and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here (was 6-4 with a respectable 3.67 ERA at home last year.) 

I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 1-4 (-2.7 units) in its last five “night” games, while Houston is 50-27 (+12.4 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

A couple of red-hot hurlers meet in this one on Thursday night, but I think the scorching Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

The visitors hand the ball to the newly acquired Sonny Gray (6-5, 3.43 ERA) who has posted a 1.37 ERA over 39.1 innings spanning his last six starts. If Gray has had one “weakness” this year though, it would have to be his play on the road where he’s a poor 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA thus far.

Kluber (8-3, 2.90) comes in even hotter than Gray, posting a 2.62 ERA and 56 strikeouts over five starts in July. He’d go on to set a career-best 14.7 K/9 last month. 

And note that Kluber has been especially tough at home by going a near-perfect 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA thus far.

I’ll also point out that the Yanks are just 13-23 (-11.1 units) on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while the Indians are 5-1 (+4 units) at home with a money line between +125 and -125.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (2:10 EST).

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Matt Garza has another long afternoon in store for him.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (8-4, 3.71 ERA) who most recently went six scoreless while posting five strikeouts in a 1-0 win over Arizona on Friday. 

Wacha comes in on top form, having gone 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a 32/4 K/W over his last five outings (is already 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in all “day” games this year as well.) 

Garza (4-5, 3.83) returns from a stint on the 10-day DL sporting a 1.26 WHIP over 82.1 innings of work this season. Garza’s peripherals though suggest that rockier times are ahead, as his strikeout rate is at a career worst 6.1 K/9 (is just 1-3 with a poor 4.96 ERA in all day contests too.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is 19-16 (+1.4 units) in all day games this year, while Milwaukee is just 19-22 (-1.6 units) in all day contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST).

Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but in this particular matchup I don’t think that the home field advantage can be discounted as a major factor once it’s all said and done.

The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (2-6, 5.74 ERA) and most recently was rocked for five runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. 

Note that Gossett has been particularly feeble on the road this year, going 2-3 with a 5.84 ERA. 

Matt Moore (3-10, 5.74) goes for the home side and he comes in off a strong outing against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Friday, going 6.1 innings and allowing three earned runs while striking out six. 

I like Moore to build off his last performance, while I expect Gossett to continue his struggles on the road. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:05 EST).

I think that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Godley (4-4, 3.06 ERA) went seven scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over the Cardinals on Thursday. 

Godley owns a tiny 1.01 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA on the road.

Jake Arrieta (10-7, 4.03) gave up two runs on two hits over 6.2 innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Wednesday. 

Arrieta owns a 1.23 WHIP and is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home.

I’ll point out though that the Diamondbacks are 50-33 (+14.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is 39-41 (-22.1 units) against right-handed starters.

I like Godley to match Arrieta inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Neither of these starters instills much confidence. That said, Trevor Williams comes off a strong start for the Pirates, while Robert Stephenson has been a complete train-wreck for the Reds. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price on the home side.

Stephenson (0-4, 7.86 ERA) gave up three runs off four hits and seven walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Fish on Thursday. 

Stephenson owns a 2.04 WHIP over 34.1 innings of work and is 0-2 with a 10.34 ERA on the road.

Williams (4-4, 4.53) comes in off a gem against the Giants on Wednesday, allowing one run off five hits over six innings. 

Williams has been serviceable at best, but clearly he’s been much more consistent than his volatile counterpart.

I’ll also point out that the Reds are just 10-15 (-1.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates are 14-5 (+7.2 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (3:40 EST).

Ultimately I believe this to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.37 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven frames in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday. 

Santana has to be feeling confident throwing in pitcher friendly Petco Park tonight though considering he’s 7-2 with a tiny 2.59 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (5-5, 4.76) who gave up four runs off nine hits and two walks while stirking out three over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. 

Perdomo sports a 4-1 record at home despite a poor 4.89 ERA (has a 5.71 ERA in all “night” contests as well.)

Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three “day” games, while San Diego is just 1-2 (-1 unit) in its last three day contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Steven Matz (2-4, 5.51 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits over three innings in a 6-3 loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Of the nine hits he gave up, five went for extra bases. Over his last four outings Matz has posted a 14.18 ERA and 2.70 WHIP.

The home side counters with Jeff Hoffman (6-3, 5.58) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up six runs while striking out three over four innings in a 10-5 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. Hoffman has been much better on the road than at home, but note that the Rockies have dominated in this spot for bettors all season by going 25-20 (+5.4 units) following a loss and 19-12 (+10.5 units) against southpaws.

Conversely, this is a position in which the Mets have struggled in, going just 36-44 (-17 units) against right-handed starters and only 24-31 (-10.6 units) following a loss.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST).

All things being equal between these capable starters, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (7-8, 3.52 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 10-5 victory over Colorado on Wednesday.

Martinez has in fact been sliding for a while now, having posted a 5.90 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 2.2 HR/9 over five starts in July. 

The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.38) who comes in off a gem against Washington on Wednesday, holding the Nats to two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out ten over eight innings of work. 

Nelson has recorded double-digit strikeouts five times this year and he’s been particularly effective at home by going 4-3 with a tiny 2.39 ERA so far this season. 

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is just 33-37 (-9.8 units) this year in all “night” games, while Milwaukee is 36-30 (+12.8 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST).

Toronto bettors on Sunday were breathing a sigh of relief after the team rallied in the bottom of the ninth to salvage the final game of a three-game set against the Angels. But with that emotional victory done, the team now boards a plane for a game against the lowly White Sox, who I think offer great value in this spot.

James Shields has struggled this year for the Sox, but so too has Jays’ starter Marco Estrada.

Estrada (4-7, 5.43) gave up two runs off three hits and four walks while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the A’s on Wednesday. It was the first time in a month that he’s made it through five innings and note that over his last 33 frames of work he’s posted a deplorable 7.64 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and 30/30 K/W. 

Estrada has consistently been at his worst on the road this year as well, going 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA.

Shields (2-3, 5.86) gave up five runs (just three earned) while striking out four over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. 

As mentioned above, both of these starting pitchers have seen better days, so let’s turn our focus to some strong situational trends instead, as Toronto is just 3-5 (-3.6 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is 3-1 (+2.6 units) in its last four as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range.

I think Toronto has a letdown here after its big win at home last night. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 EST).

Boths starters have been hot, but I think St. Louis will bounce back after yesterday’s defeat.

The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (6-4, 3.47 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Tuesday. 

The home side counters with Lance Lynn (8-6, 3.21) who gave up one run off three hits to go along with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Tuesday. Lynn has now given up just two runs over his last 25.1 innings of work and is 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA at home.

It’s interesting to note that Arizona is just 6-8 (-3.8 units) against teams with losing records in the second half of the season, while St. Louis is 5-3 (+2 units) against clubs with winning records in the second half.

I like Lynn to take advantage of familiar surroundings, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST).

Both pitchers have been solid of late, but Drew Pomeranz has been better than Jason Hammel and I think he’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) gave up three runs off five hits and one walk over 5.2 innings in a victory over Detroit on Monday. Hammel though has been at his worst on the road this year, so far just 1-4 with a ballooned 5.03 ERA.

Pomeranz (10-4, 3.59) gave up three runs off four hits while striking out seven over five innings in a 6-5 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday. In seven starts previous Pomeranz posted a 4-0 record to go along with a 2.13 ERA. 

Pomeranz will now look to return to the winners circle at home where he’s 6-2 with a 3.93 ERA.

I think Hammel’s road struggles continue and I expect Pomeranz to continue his progression. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to ace Ivan Nova (10-7, 3.62 ERA) who fell victim to hitter friendly Coors Field in his last start, giving up seven runs off nine hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual loss. 

But now Nova transitions to the pitcher friendly confines of Petco where he’ll be looking to improve upon his respectable 5-4, 3.33 ERA record in all “night” games this year and take advantage of the league’s worst offense.

The home side counters with the volatile Dinelson Lamet (4-4, 5.92) who after also getting blown up at Coors Field for six runs over four innings, bounced back with a decent effort against the Giatns on Sunday, allowing two runs over 6.2 innings (gave up eight hits though.) 

To go along with his poor 5.92 ERA, Lamet also sports an ugly 3.48 BB/9, numbers which suggest that rockier times are ahead (is 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA in all “night” games.) 

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Pittsburgh is 11-5 (+8.3 units) this year in all games played on a Saturday, while San Diego is just 6-10 (-2.6 units) in all Saturday games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST).

I simply feel that Corey Kluber is overvalued in this matchup.

Kluber (8-3, 2.74 ERA) comes in off a gem against Toronto on Sunday, allowing one run off five hits and two walks while striking out 14 over seven innings. Kluber has been on a roll over the last month with a stellar 90/10 K/W ratio. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA on the road.

The home side counters with Miguel Gonzaelz (5-9, 4.60) who comes in off a gem himself against the hard-hitting Cubs on Monday, giving up one run off seven hits and three strikeouts over eight innings of work. 

In two starts since returning from shoulder injury, Gonzalez has quietly domianted, giving up just two runs over 13.1 innings (is 3-3 with a 3.58 ERA at home.) 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is just 1-5 (-8.8 units) this year as a road fav of -175 or more.

The White Sox are looking towards the future, but I think Gonzalez can match pace with Kluber inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the home dog. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST).

I like the home side to build off its convincing 10-3 win yesterday.

The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-5, 4.81 ERA) who gave up three runs and five walks over six innings in a no decision against the Dodgers on Monday. 

The sample size is still too small to properly judge Newcomb, who has looked brilliant at times and really poor in others.

The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.71) who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. 

Eickhoff will look to build off that strong performance and improve upon his 2-2, 3.99 ERA record at home.

I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 11-15 (-2.9 units) this season in all road games when the money line is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 4-2 (+2 units) in its last six in all home games with a money line between +125 and -125.

I think Eickhoff is the correct call in this particular matchup and all things considered, I feel this is a great price in the end. Play on the Phillies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominators is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST).

I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (taking a side one night in a series, but then coming back with the other team the next night), but MLB is one the sport where every contest for the most part has to be looked at serparately (because of the starting pitchers) and while I had a play on Seattle last night, I think New York has a much bigger advantage on the mound on Saturday than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (12-3, 3.30 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks to go along with eight strikeouts over eight frames of work in the eventual win over the Padres on Monday.

DeGrom is rolling having won eight straight decisions (note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” contests this season.)

The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.58) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Sunday. 

Gallardo caught a break, as all three runs he gave up were of the solo home run variety, so it clearly could have been a lot worse. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 6.02 ERA at home this year.

It’s interesting to note as well that New York is 10-7 (+3.1 units) this season when playing on a Saturday, while Seattle is just 5-11 (-7 units) on all Saturday games. 

I like DeGrom to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Mets to build off yesterday’s win. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.19 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. 

Montero owns a 1.73 WHIP and is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all “night” games, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this late night West Coaster.

The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.30) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings against New York on Saturday. 

Miranda has stumbled lately, but will now look to get untracked in front of the home town crowd and improve upon his already respectable 3-2, 3.24 ERA record in Seattle.

I’ll point out as well that New York is just 1-2 (-1 units) in its last three as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Seattle is 15-9 (+2.3 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

All things being equal between these starting pitchers, I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a big time factor in this matchup.

The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.15 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Washington on Sunday. Ray settled down after a disastrous first inning and is still on track for his best campaign as a pro.

The home side counters with Michael Wacha (7-4, 3.93) who also comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, giving up five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the 5-3 loss to Chicago. The silver lining was that he struck out six and walked none. 

Wacha though had won four straight previous to that and posted a tiny 1.01 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch of dominance. 

Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA at home and the Cards are 4-2 (+2.2 units) since the All Star break against teams with a winning record.

Arizona is a poor 5-7 (-3.9 units) against clubs with losing records in the second half.

For all the reasons listed above, play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (12:35 EST).

Sean Manaea has been awfully steady for Oakland this year, but I think Marcus Stroman and the hard-hitting home side still have a much bigger advantage than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Manaea (8-5, 3.82 ERA) comes in off a dud against the Mets on Saturday, allowing four runs off ten hits while stirking out just two over five innings of work. 

Manaea has been the backbone of the rotation, but still owns just a pedestrian 4-4, 4.01 ERA road record.

Stroman (9-5, 2.98) comes in off a gem against Cleveland on Saturday, giving up one run while striking out seven over eight innings. 

Stroman has now given up just four earned runs over his last 34 innings of work (has been effective at home with a tiny 2.70 ERA as well.)

The best way to properly assess starting pitching is to loko at “recent form.” Stroman comes in on fire and looks determined to close the year strong despite whether his team scuffles or not. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10:10 EST).

I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the undervalued underdog, as I expect Alex Wood to have another letdown here after suffering his first loss of the season in spectacular fashion.

The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.26 ERA) who also comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, giving up five runs with three strikeouts over 3.1 innings. 

Santana has been solid this year and his peripherals suggest it’s no fluke. Also note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 7-2 with a 2.28 ERA thus far.

Wood (11-1, 2.17) was shelled for nine runs (seven earned) off nine hits and four walks over 4.2 innings to Atlanta on Friday. 

His first half numbers were clearly unsustainable and I expect rockier times ahead for the southpaw. 

I think Santana can match Wood inning for innning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog. Play on Minnesota.

UPDATE: Wood is out and Brock Stewart is in. This line will change significantly obviously, and I clearly still love Santana and the Twins in this spot. Stewart will be on a 50 to 60 pitch limit and it’s been reported that he was stricken with an illness last weekend. PLAY STILL VALID on TWINS.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST).

Ultimately i feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (6-2, 5.10 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits and four walks over three innings in a 13-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. 

Hoffman has regressed significantly over the last month, posting a deplorable 8.44 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 7/7 K/W over 16 innings spanning his last three starts. 

The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.34) who gave up three runs (two earned) while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. 

Martinez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his solid 4-3, 2.90 ERA record at home.

I like Martinez to continue his strong play at home and I expect Hoffman to continue to nose-dive. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST).

I think this one favors the home side. 

The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. 

Nelson has been as solid as Milwaukee could have hoped for this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a poor 4.96 ERA to this point.

The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a 7-0 loss to the Angels on Wednesday. 

It was just the first time since May 25th that he’s not lasted at least six frames and while Gonzalez is just 1-2 at home this year, he owns a tiny 1.95 ERA in the nation’s capital.

I like Gonzalez to bounce back and outlast his counterpart and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST).

I like the Rangers to respond after falling 4-0 on Monday night. 

The Marlins hand the ball to Dan Straily (7-5, 3.49 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits and three walks over five innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. 

Straily has been solid across the board, but has been better at home (2.82) than on the road (4.37).

The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (4-1, 3.78) who gave up seven runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out just three over 5.1 innings against the Orioles on Thursday. 

Hamels peripherals suggest he could be in store for rockier times ahead, but regardless of that, he’s been at this best at home this year with a 3-0, 2.22 ERA record thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Miami is just 7-10 (-3.3 units) in all interleague games this year, while Texas is 10-2 (+10.2 units) in all interleague contests.

I like Hamels to outduel Straily and for the Rangers to bounce back after getting blanked last night. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST).

I like Kansas City to build off yesterday’s 11-3 win. I actually had a play on the Tigers yesterday and while I never “flip-flop” on a team (playing on one team one night and then coming back with the other side the next night), MLB is the one sport where each game must be looked at by itself, because for the most part it’s all about the starting pitchers.

And in this case, Danny Duffy (6-6, 3.71 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup in my opinion. Duffy most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over five innings in a victory over Detroit on Thursday. 

It wasn’t his greatest start of the year obviously, but he had an early eight-run lead, so was able to throw it in cruise control and pepper the strike zone, which led to a couple of extra runs. To go along with his solid 3.71 ERA, Duffy also sports a 1.28 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 for the season (is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games as well this year.)

The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06) who gave up eight runs off seven hits while striking out two over 2.2 innings in a loss to these very Royals throwing opposite Duffy last week. 

Granted those types of outings have been few and far between for Fulmer this season (and throughout his career), but note that Detroit has struggled in this spot all year by going just 25-37 (-12.1 units) in all “night” games, while conversely, the Royals have looked great by going 33-30 (+6.5 units) in all night contests.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST).

I had a play on the White Sox yesterday in their 3-1 victory as a large underdog and once again I think the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon as well.

The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA) who comes in off a crummy outing against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing five runs while striking out four over 3.2 innings of work. It was just his fourth start of the year, so it’s definitely still too early to properly judge the southpaw (note that Rodon owned respectable 3.57 ERA on the road last season.)

The home side counters with the volatile John Lackey (6-9, 5.04) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits over five innings in a 5-1 win over Atlanta on Tuesday, managing just a single strikeout. 

For the most part though Lackey has been a complete disaster across the board for the defending champs, note that he owns a poor 1-4, 5.05 ERA record at home. 

The Cubs’ pitching remains overpriced. Rodon is being touted as the staff “ace,” but has yet to perform at the level since returning from injury. But here’s the perfect stage and opponent to get untracked against. The value once again swings to the visitors in Game 2, play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:15 EST).

Gerrit Cole hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s coming off a strong outing and has been trending in the correct direciton of late.

The same can’t be said of Giants’ veteran Matt Cain, who will come out of the bullpen to make this start in place of the injured Johnny Cueto.

All things considered, I think the visiting could easily be a much larger fav in this matchup.

Cole (7-7, 4.18 ERA) struck out ten over seven innings and gave up one run in an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. 

Cain (3-8, 5.49) has been better at home than on the road this season, but note that the Giants are just 7-10 (-3.8 units) in July, while Pittsburgh is 12-6 (+7.3 units) this month.

These starting pitchers and teams are moving in the opposite directions. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST).

The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (10-3, 4.67 ERA) who earned a win over San Diego on Tuesday despite giving up four runs off four hits. 

Senzatela only most recently rejoined the rotation after being demoted in June following an eight-start stretch in which he was shelled for 33 runs in 44.1 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Mike Leake (6-8, 3.39) who has struggled over the last month. Leake has just a 2-5 record at home despite a very respectable 3.38 ERA.

I like Leake to ‘right the ship’ tonight as I expect Senzatela’s inconsistencies to once again be a major factor. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST).

I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this one.

The visitors hand the ball to Jason Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and a walk over six innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Wednesday. 

Hammel has admittedly looked much better of late, but his Achilles heel has clearly been his play on the road this season, going just 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA. 

The home side counters with Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.54) who comes in off a great performance against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. 

Verlander has been much better at home (3.59) than on the road (5.32) this year.

KC is just 17-23 (-5.4 units) against its division foes, while Detroit is 23-19 (+4.1 units) against the division.

Verlander continues to audition for other teams and I look for him to build off his latest performance. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

10* Daytime Dominator on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST).

I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cubs after their Sunday nighter against the Cardinals.

Miguel Gonzalez and the cross-town rival White Sox will look to sneak away with a winner in the opener as a big dog going away.

Gonzalez (4-9, 4.89 ERA) comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing one run off five hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 loss (owns a respectable 4.31 ERA in all “day” games thus far.)

The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09) who makes his first outing back after an extended stint on the DL again. He looked sharp in his final re-hab start but still owns a rather pedestrian 4.18 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

I’ll point out as well that the White Sox are 5-2 (+3.2 units) in their last seven “day” contets, while Chicago is 22-23 (-12.4 units) in all “day” games this year.

All things considered, I think the pressure is on Hendricks and the value is on Gonzalez. Play on the White Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francsico Giants (4:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (3-4, 6.40 ERA) who gave up six runs off four this and four walks in a 9-7 road loss at Coors Field on Tuesday. Lamet has 62 strikeouts in 45 innings of work, but his 3.8 BB/9 points to continued regression (is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA on the road thus far.)

The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.36) who held Cleveland to one run off seven hits while striking out three over seven innings on Tuesday. 

Blach has now posted three consecutive quality outings and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 3-3 with a respectable 3.57 ERA at home so far this season.

For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Blach should be a much larger fav in this particular matchup.

Play on the Giants.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST).

This has been a competitive series and I think the finale will also come down to the wire. And in a scenario like that, I think JA Happ and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon.

Happ (3-6, 3.55 ERA) comes in off his first truly poor outing of the year, giving up six runs (just two earned) off seven hits over four innings to the hard-hitting Astros on Sunday. 

Previous to that though Happ had posted five straight quality starts (note that he owns a very respectable 3.00 ERA on the road).

The home side counters with Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.86) who missed his last start with a neck injury. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kluber, but it’s yet to be seen if this latest injury is serious or not.

I’ll point out as well that the Jays have in fact excelled in this spot of late by going 7-5 (+2.4 units) in their last 12 against teams with winning records, while the Indians have struggled in this position by going just 5-8 (-10.8 units) in their last 13 against clubs with losing records.

In my opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down in a matchup which I feel is a lot more even than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Play on the Jays.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to David Price (5-2, 3.39 ERA) who comes in off a gem against New York on Sunday, going eight scoreless and posting an 8/0 K/W. Price is a solid 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA on the road this year.

The home side counters with JC Ramirez (8-8, 4.54) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Ramirez has been better on the road (7-3, 3.60) that at home (1-5, 5.50) this season.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely feel that Price is the correct call. Lay the price with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST).

I like the Indians to build off yesterday’s 13-3 victory.

Toronto hands the ball to Marcus Stroman (9-5, 3.10 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out five in a no-decision against Boston on Monday. 

It’s hard to point out anything negative about Stroman this season, as he’s been solid across the board. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander.

The home side counters with Danny Salazar (3-5, 5.40) who makes his first big league start since late May. In his last warm up at Triple-A Columbus on Sunday, Salazar went six scoreless while scattering three hits and posting nine strikeouts (last year he was 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home.) 

Toronto’s dealing with injuries to its line-up, which doesn’t bode well in trying to match up against Cleveland’s big bats. I like Salazar to match Stroman inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel the advantage falls to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST).

I had a play on Chicago yesterday afternoon and the Cubs would fall apart late and give up nine runs in the top of the eighth. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the defending champs to respond this afternoon.

This pick would be at the very uppermost juice that’d I’ll ever lay, but in this case I think it’s well worth it.

The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (11-5, 5.08 ERA) who comes in off a decent performance against the Mets on Monday, giving up three runs off six hits over five innings. 

Wainwright has been good at home (7-1, 3.19) and horrible on the road (4-4, 7.68).

The home side counters with Jon Lester (6-6, 4.07) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. It was a big step in the right direction to open the second half and he’ll now look to build upon his respectable 3-3, 3.73 ERA record at home.

No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as Wainwright has been at his worst on the road all year, while Lester has been at his best in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price, play on the Cubs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.69 ERA) who gave up two runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Cards on Sunday. 

Admittedly, Williams has been a lot better of late, but he has consistently been at his worst on the road this year by going 3-3 with a 5.13 ERA.

Which clearly doesn’t bode well heading to hitter friendly Coors Field. 

Colorado counters with Jeff Hoffman (6-1, 4.33) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Sunday. Hoffman is 2-1 with a 6.44 ERA at home and 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA on the road.

I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is just 29-35 (-7.3 units) in all “night” games, while Colorado is 31-28 (+2.9 units) in all night contests.

I like Hoffman to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rockies.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. 

Detroit hands the ball to Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 6.08 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Sunday. Note that so far he’s 0-0 with a 6.33 ERA on the road this season.

The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (11-6, 2.99) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while striking out three in a victory over Houston on Saturday. 

Note that he owns a 3.63 ERA at home and 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. 

The only question here is whether or not we think that Santana will have a big mental letdown or if he’ll come in focused on the task at hand? I think it’ll be the latter, as it’s his first start back from the break and he’ll be eager to prove that his first half dominance was no fluke. 

Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Twins.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST).

I think this is a matchup which favors the home side, making this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying.

The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.36 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. 

Previous to his All Star appearance though, Martinez had given up five runs in two outings each to close the first half.

The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.17) who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Orioles on Saturday. 

Arrieta finished the first half strong by holding his opposition to one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five outings and he certainly has the pedigree and track record to continue his progression in the second half. 

And that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Martinez struggled in his final two starts before the mid-summer classic and things certainly won’t get any easier in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (12:35 EST).

I think Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting Brewers have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Nelson (8-4, 3.27 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while stirking out nine over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. 

Nelson has now given up just 25 earned runs through 87 innings over his last 14 starts and he’s been super sharp in all “day” games by going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA. 

The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.06) who gave up four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. 

Taillon for the most part has been solid, but he’s still a very average 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 40-35 (+10 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Pittsburgh is 35-36 (-1.3 units) against right-handed starters.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Nationals (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) who went 8.1 scoreless innings against the Reds on Friday, giving up four hits and walking six. Gonzalez has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA on the road so far.

The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 4.82) who gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Friday. 

Nolasco has looked a lot better of late, but he’s just 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA at home and only 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA in all “night” games.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I expect the red hot Gonzalez to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Nationals.

UPDATE: Nolasco is out and Alex Meyer is in. This play is STILL VALID! Meyer (3-5, 4.18) has good fast-ball velocity (90 MPH range) but has a lifetime 6.1 BB/9 at the major league level. Meyer has been better at home than on the road this year, but is still just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST).

Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 3.94 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he most recently gave up one unearned run off seven hits over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Friday. 

Over seven starts this year Sanchez owns a poor 1.59 WHIP and 22:15 K/W through 32 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.75) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Friday. 

This was the first time that he’s given up more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts and note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all year by going 8-3 with 3.61 ERA in all “night” contests thus far.

Sanchez was unbelievable last year, but I’m not a believer quite yet despite a decent outing in his last trip to the mound. Advantage Pomeranz. 

Play on the Red Sox.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I think that Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting side should be much larger favorites than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, going seven scoreless with seven K’s in an eventual victory over the Reds on Friday. To go along with his solid 2.86 ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.00 WHIP and 10.1 K/9.

Greinke has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as well as he’s 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA in all “night” games thus far.

The home side counters with Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.99) who gave up five runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 4.1 innings in a 5-0 loss to Washington Friday. 

Adleman has gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, having now allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts while failing to make it out of the fifth frame in any of them. 

Note that Adleman has been particularly poor at home as well with a 5.09 ERA to this point.

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Greinke and the D-Backs should indeed be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Value swings to the visitors, lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:15 EST).

I like the visitors to build off last night’s interleague victory.

The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.00 ERA) who went six scoreless while striking out four in a win over Detroit on Saturday. 

Clevinger enters the second half on fire, posting a 1.67 ERA and 28 strikeouts over his last 27 innings of work. To go along with his solid 3.00 ERA, Clevinger also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP and .184 BAA through 12 games (note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA on the road as well.) 

The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.60) who gave up three runs off six hits in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. 

Blach has been “hit-or-miss” this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent in this spot, going a poor 5-5 with a ballooned 5.50 ERA in all “night” games.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is already 14-9 (+1.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while San Francisco is 17-24 (-10.8 units) at home. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST).

Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (6-3, 4.10 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Miami on Thursday. 

Wacha closed the first half of the 2017 season on fire by posting a superb 18/3 K/W over 11.2 innings of work. 

The home side counters with Rafael Montero (1-5, 5.77) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Sunday. 

Montero has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. 

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Wacha has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart. Play on the Cards.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST).

Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA), who returns from the DL to make this start. Guerra has so far fallen short of his spectacular 2016 and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road by going just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA. 

The home side counters with ace Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. 

Nova hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd by going 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA in Pittsburgh thus far.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Nova has a clear advantage over his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Pirates.

Good luck…Larry