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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris. The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. BC Lions (Moneyline) 10* play |
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06-14-19 | Liberty +13 v. Aces | Top | 65-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: After a 2-4 start, the New York Liberty come in on top form having won two straight. Overall the Liberty have averaged 79.7 PPG, while allowing 82. Tina Charles leads the nightly charge with 21.3 points and 9.2 boards per game. Las Vegas has been sliding of late and has fallen back under .500. On the year the Aces average 82.2 PPG and concede 78.6. Kayla McBride leads Las Vegas with 17.2 points and five boards per game. These teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I believe those trends continue here. Outright win? Unlikely. But I think this will be much more competitive that what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Liberty are 5-0 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest, while the Aces are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss. New York just beat the Aces at home as a ten point dog (allowed just 35.4 percent shooting in that one.) No ATS revenge today for the home side, grab as many points as you can. 10* GAME OF WEEK LIBERTY |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 58 h 55 m | Show |
The setup: Whether KD plays or not tonight, I like the Warriors to postpone this series at least one more game after tonight. The Warriors have been decimated by injury during the playoffs and it finally caught up to them in the Finals. Despite that though, with Stephen Curry an Klay Thompson both given a green light for the defending champs, then GS has much more than just a puncher chance in this one. So far Toronto has been tight defensively, but the team is in unchartered territory here. I think the Raptors will struggle to put away the Warriors in this crucial spot. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up great for the underdog tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in revenging two straight straight up losses to an opponent (including 2-0 ATS this year), while Toronto is only 2-3 ATS this season after two or more straight road wins by ten points or more. Grab as many points as you can. Golden State Warriors 10* play |
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06-09-19 | Rays v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox look to salvage the final game of this four game series and even it up. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Blake Snell, while the home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez. The pitchers: Snell (3-5, 3.68 ERA) was untouchable last year for the most part, but this season it’s been quite the opposite. Snell enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, getting shelled for six runs off seven hits over four innings of work. Rodriguez (6-3, 4.88) has had difficulty with TB in the past, but he enters on top form, having gone 6-1 with a 3.86 ERA over his last ten starts, including allowing only two runs over seven frames in a win over the Royals on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but TB is now just 10-11 (-3.6 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records, while Boston is 73-44 (+8.8 units) the last two years in all “day” games. I’m laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. 10* RL BEST IN SHOW |
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06-06-19 | Blues +1.5 v. Bruins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: This has been a difficult series to get a grasp on. With three games remaining, both teams are going to be laying everything on the line. St. Louis has allowed 2.42 goals per game on the road, while Boston has allowed just 2.40 GPG at home. I said before this series started that I thought that the team that would win this series would whichever sides’ goaltender “stepped up.” These goalies (Jordan Binnington for the Blues and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins) are obviously very evenly matched and I think they’re going to be the focal point in this contest as well. Neither team is going to give an inch in Game 5, so in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I definitely feel that the value lies with laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five when tied in a playoff series, while Boston is just 9-10 (-4.6 units) this season after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. 8* Blues PL |
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06-04-19 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The Dodgers come in off a convincing win last night and they’re the hottest team in all of MLB. The Diamondbacks are moving in the opposite direction for weeks now after a shot start to the 2019 MLB campaign. LA also hands the ball to arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet in Hyun-Jin Ryu, while the home side counters with the relatively unknown Taylor Clarke. The pitchers: Ryu (8-1, 1.48 ERA) went 5-0 in six starts in May, allowing just three runs over 45 2/3’s innings of work to go along with an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA. He’s 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 14 career outings vs. the D-Backs. Clarke (1-1, 4.67) makes his fourth career start, most recently getting shelled for five runs over two innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday. The pick: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on the Dodgers on the run line. LA Dodgers (-1.5) 8* play |
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06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 57 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Golden State finally lost a game without Kevin Durant in the line-up and if its not careful here, it’s going to find itself in a 2-0 hole before heading back to Golden State. Durant isn’t expected in the line-up today either, but I still think that the experience that the Warriors bring to the table will help them earn a split North of the border. Toronto got a super human effort from Paskal Sikiam in Game 1 and I definitely am not expecting “lightning to strike twice” for the Raptors. I believe Steve Kerr makes the necessary adjustments to help his team even this series before heading home. The pick: Note as well that Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight when playing on two days rest, while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on two days rest. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, let’s grab the points. Golden State Warriors 10* play |
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05-27-19 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Max Scherzer got out to an uncharacteristically slow start to the 2019 campaign, but I still think he’s going to easily outlast his volatile counterpart. The visitors counter with Jose Urena. The pitchers: Urena (2-6, 4.30 ERA) is 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA vs. the Nats for his career. Still, I think Urena is in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Scherzer (2-5, 3.41) leads the NL with 96 K’s this season. He has one of the worst run support averages in all of baseball, plus his bullpen is horrible. Note that he’s 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA lifetime vs. Miami. The pick: Note as well that Miami is just 8-18 as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Washington is 11-7 in its last 18 “day” games. I’m banking on Scherzer going deep. Washington Nationals -1.5 RUN LINE 8* play |
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05-23-19 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: This has been a competitive series, as Chicago earned the victory last night as a big underdog. With its ace on the mound, it has to be feeling confident it can earn the split of this four game series. But in a game which I see being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to play this one on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito, while the home side counters with Corbin Martin. The pitchers: Giolito (5-1, 3.35 ERA) comes in on top form, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.93 ERA over his previous three starts. Martin (1-0, 3.86) gave up three runs off five hits over four innings in his second career start at Boston on Saturday. The pick: Clearly the book is still out on Martin. Giolito has struggled against the Astros in the past, but he’s clearly “coming into his own” now. This is a “different” Giolito and I expect him to keep his team in this one late. Chicago White Sox +1.5 8* play |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory. The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points. Toronto Raptors 10* play |
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05-21-19 | Sharks +1.5 v. Blues | 1-5 | Loss | -200 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Sharks are on the brink of elimination and in a game which I think is going to be decided late or even in extra time, I have no issues at all in laying the steeper price for the extra 1.5 goals. San Jose has only one goal over its last two games, but overall the Sharks come in averaging 3.67 goals this year. Jordan Binnington has been exceptional in net for St. Louis, but one has to wonder when the rookie will have a letdown? I have a hard time seeing this talented Sharks offense being held down for a third straight game and in this elimination scenario. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 8-2 (+5.2 units) this year after scoring one goals or less i its previous contest, while St. Louis is only 4-5 (-1.7 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game. San Jose Sharks (+1.5) 5* play |
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05-18-19 | Warriors +2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Golden State rolled to two straight victories at home over the Blazers and whether Kevin Durant plays or not tonight, I think the defending champs offer great value to do it again here as well. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 61 points in the Game 2 victory. Portland looked decent for big stretches of Game 2, but Golden State’s relentless defensive attack, combined with its overall talent and experience is proving to be too much for Portland to get past. And now with a chance to put the (next to) last nail in the coffin, I believe GS steps up and answers the call. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is interestingly 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the third game of a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This is a bad matchup for Portland. Grab the points. Golden State Warriors 10* play |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Toronto is already 9-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and 3-0 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. I think the momentum that Toronto has created is real and I think it’ll take this one right down to the wire (at the very least.) Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC |
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05-12-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | 0-6 | Loss | -162 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nationals rallied for a late win last night. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames again this evening, I think laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the sharp move. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu. The pitchers: Strasburg (3-2, 3.71 ERA) is 2-4 with a 2.64 ERA in nine starts vs. the Dodgers. He took a no-decision last time out despite posting 11 K’s. Ryu (4-1, 2.03) is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3’s innings in his career vs. the Nats. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 6-2 (+6.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range, while LA is just 18-21 (-11.2 units) in its last 39 with a home money line in the -105 to -150 range. Lay the price, grab the runs. Washington Nationals +1.5 9* play |
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05-12-19 | Blazers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a very unpredictable series. Each team has looked great at times, and really inconsistent in others. With everything on the line, I expect this one to be decided by whichever one of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Portland snapped its two-game losing streak at home in Game 6 and it comes in averaging 112.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Blazers looked decent defensively last time out as well in holding Denver to 108 points. The Nuggets are averaging 110.2 PPG in the postseason. Denver has been inconsistent on the defensive end as well in the playoffs, most recently giving up 119 points to Portland. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 11-5 ATS this season following a home win by ten points or more, while Denver is just 11-13 ATS this year off a road loss. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points. Portland Trail Blazers 10* play |
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05-10-19 | Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: DeMarcus Cousins got injured in the first round for the Warriors, but he could return if Golden State can advance. The defending champs will try to close this series tonight without star Kevin Durant and while it clearly won’t be easy, they still do possess more than enough talent, experience and savvy to take this one outright. Golden State hasn’t been getting great production from either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson in this series, but they’re going to have to step up here and answer the call tonight. Golden State has been great in slowing down James Harden in this series and I expect another strong effort on the end of the floor tonight as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 in trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is only 6-7 ATS this year following a loss by six points or less. I think a “shocker” could be in order, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Golden State Warriors 10* play |
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05-08-19 | Celtics +9 v. Bucks | Top | 91-116 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Ex Celtic player and current analyst Paul Pierce confidently proclaimed that this series was “over” after the C’s took Game 1, but since then the Bucks have won three straight. The Celtics have the experience and talent to match pace with Milwaukee on both ends of the floor, but the chemistry that the Bucks enjoyed in the regular season continues, while Boston’s inability to find a firm identity once again is coming back to hurt it. But I don’t think that Kyrie Irving and company will be going down without a fight tonight. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road overall, while Milwaukee is just 4-10 ATS the last 14 in this series at home. Irving is in the worst three-game shooting slump in the playoffs for his career, but I believe that streak ends tonight. Outright victory? Probably not, but much closer than what this speed would suggest. Grab the points. 10* BOSTON CELTICS |
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05-05-19 | Raptors +2 v. 76ers | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto will have to proceed without Pascal Siakam, who suffered a leg injury, but I still think it offers great value to even this series up before heading back home. Toronto has struggled offensively over the first three games, but it continues to get great play from Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 31.5 points, 6.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. Toronto looked poor defensively by allowing 116 points in Game 3, but previous to that it had been the best in the playoffs on that end of the court. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 5-1 ATS this year off an upset loss by ten points or more as a favorite, while Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS this season off a win by ten points or more as an underdog. I think the deep and talented Raptors get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Toronto Raptors 10* play |
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04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucks destroyed the Blake Griffin-less Pistons in the first round and the Celtics smashed the Pacers. Milwaukee though ran into a buzz saw of a defense in Game 1 vs. Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full again here as well. The Celtics completely dominated in the lop-sided 112-90 Game 1 victory. Overall Boston is averaging only 101.8 PPG in the playoffs, but it’s making up for it on the other end by leading the way on the defensive end in conceding only 91.4 PPG. The Bucks are averaging 115.4 PPG and they’re allowing 100.8. Of course those numbers are skewed after their Round 1 destruction of the hapless Pistons. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 26-6 ATS in its last 32 off an upset win as an underdog (including 6-0 ATS this year), while Milwaukee is interestingly 2-3 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. I don’t expect Boston to go down easily here. Grab the points. Boston Celtics 10* play |
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04-29-19 | Blazers +4 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland took out the Thunder in five games, while Denver needed seven games to get past the Spurs. While Denver took three of four in the regular season series, I think the home side comes out flat and tired after its marathon opening round series victory. The Blazers come in rested and prepared with over a week off. Over the first round Portland allowed 111 PPG and it conceded 105.2. The Nuggets averaged 105.1 PPG vs. the Spurs, while allowing 103.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less. I believe fatigue is a factor for a Nuggets team which struggled with consistency in its first round. Grab the points. Portland Trail Blazers 10* play |
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04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams dominated in their opening round series. I think we have to take the Bucks’ four game sweep of the Pistons with a grain of salt though, as Detroit played without star Blake Griffin for most of it. Boston steamrolled the Pacers by averaging 99.3 PPG and allowing only 91.8. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG and it allowed 98. The pick: Boston comes in peaking at the right time here though. The Celtics have a ton of depth and experience and they have the ability to win this one outright. Note that the C’s are 5-0 ATS their last five on the road, while the Bucks are a terrible 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 when playing on three or more days rest. The outright is possible, but grab the points. Boston Celtics 9* play |
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04-24-19 | Clippers +14 v. Warriors | Top | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 55 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Do or die, now or never, use whatever motivational phrase you want, but if the Clippers can’t find a way to duplicate their Game 2 winning effort, then their season will end tonight. LA came close to evening up the series in Game 4, but ultimately it came up short, going on to easily cover with the ample spread that it was afforded. The Warriors lost the services of big man DeMarcus Cousins, but the core remains. But while they enter having won three straight, I think a small letdown is inevitable. No outright, but closer than expected. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but LA is 6-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS, while Golden State is a poor 15-22 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. LA’s starters lack the scoring depth of their counterparts, but its depth keeps it in this one late once again in my opinion. Grab the points. LA Clippers 10* play |
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04-23-19 | Nets +8 v. 76ers | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nets took Game 1, but favored Philadelphia then responded with three straight convincing victories. Brooklyn won’t be going down without a fight today though and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright win, all signs point to this one coming down to the wire. The Nets haven’t had any issues offensively, but it’s been on the defensive side which they’ve lacked. In Game 1 though they shut down Ben Simmons and company and clearly a similar effort is going to be needed here as well. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the 76ers, as they’ve sure looked a lot better since that Game 1 loss, but consistency from game to game has plagued the team all year and after three straight victories, there’s no question that this does set up as a small letdown spot. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nets are 12-5 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and 33-18 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia is just 11-12 ATS when playing on two days rest and only 3-13 ATS this year after having won three of its last four games. Grab the points. Brooklyn Nets 10* play |
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04-20-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs took Game 1, 101-96, before Denver took Game 2 by a score of 114-105. The Spurs scored the 118-108 home win in Game 3 and I believe this pattern will continue as I look for Denver to now respond in Game 4. The pick: These teams are very evenly matched and it wouldn’t be very difficult to write a convincing argument for either of them. For me it comes down to the Nuggets being th more motivated side here, as well as the fact that the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS win. Also note that Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after a loss by ten points or more. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points. Denver Nuggets 10* play |
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04-18-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Spurs | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: San Antonio shocked the Nuggets in Game 1 with an outright win and Denver had its hands full in Game 2 as well. But Nikola Jokic and company finally got it figured out in the second half of Game 2 to overcome a 19 point deficit to beat San Antonio and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over here. Denver was one of the best on the defensive end of the floor all year and that showed by holding the Spurs to just 103 points average over the first two games. San Antonio also looked good by holding the Nuggets to an average 96 points, but they’d allow 114 last time out and I think they’ll once again have problems containing this now confident visiting side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is 6-1 in its last seven after a home victory, while SA is just 9-13 ATS this season after playing two straight on the road. Grab the points and expect a war until the final horn. Denver Nuggets 10* play |
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04-17-19 | Jazz +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 98-118 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 1, but I think it’ll “come to play” in Game 2 as it looks to earn a coveted split in Houston. Utah played well offensively and defensively during the regular season, but it shot only 39 percent from the field in Game 1. The Jazz now play with “triple revenge” here as well after losing three straight to the Rockets. After a 34 point loss and facing an 0-2 hole, it’s “now or never” for Donovan Mitchell and company. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Houston just 9-10 ATS this season off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end. Utah Jazz 10* play |
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04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to over think this one. Denver was shocked in Game 1 by the Spurs aggressive defensive play, but after three straight victories (including tw to end the regular season), I think the Spurs come out flat here in Game 2. The Nuggets on the other hand will have to push the pace from start to finish here. Denver was the best team in the league over the first half, but a somewhat lacklustre second, combined with the Game 1 loss has the team in “panic” mode at this point in my opinion. There’s no way the Nuggets can go to San Antonio down 0-2 and expect to win this series. The pick: Note that the Spurs are only 11-12 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 5-11 ATS after a win by six points or less, while Denver is still 25-17 ATS at home overall and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after failing to cover the spread in three or more straight games. Lay the points. Denver Nuggets 10* play |
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04-14-19 | Pacers v. Celtics -7 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the undermanned Pacers. Boston won three of the four regular season meetings. Indiana won just four of its final 13 regular season games, a slide which cost it home floor advantage in the first round. And now the Celtics will look to take advantage themselves. Indiana averages 108 PPG and it allows 104.7. Boston won six of its final eight games. The Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while allowing 108. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with three or more days rest, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Look for Boston’s depth and overall superior talent, combined with the home floor advantage to prove to be too much for the Pacers in Game 1. Lay the points. Boston Celtics 10* play |
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04-13-19 | Nets +5.5 v. 76ers | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: You’d think that Philadelphia would have a clear advantage in this matchup, but in the regular season that wasn’t the case, as these team’s split four meetings. Overall Brooklyn averages 112.2 PPG and it allows 112.3. D’Angelo Russell averages 26.7 points and 8.1 assists per game. The 76ers average 115.2 PPG and they allow 112.5. Joel Embiid averages 28 points and 11.6 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will though but Brooklyn is 25-16 ATS on the road this year, while Philadelphia is just 27-31 ATS as a favorite this year. These two team’s are both very deep and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Brooklyn Nets 9* |
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04-10-19 | Heat +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 94-113 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami’s been eliminated from playoff contention, but I still think that Dwayne Wade and company come to play tonight. The Heat are 6-5 in the second game of back-to-back situations this year, putting up an average of 110.1 PPG and allowing 105.7 in those contests. The Nets have nothing to play for here, as they’ve already punched their ticket to the postseason. Brooklyn is unable to change its position with a win or loss today. Expect the home side to rest starters. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Brooklyn is just 19-21 ATS at home. I think Miami’s back-ups come in hungry and angry as they look to take out their frustrations on a Nets team that will simply be going through the motions as it looks to now avoid any serious injuries before the playoffs. Grab the points. Miami Heat 10* play |
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04-09-19 | Blazers v. Lakers +9 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? Probably not. But the Lakers look more competitive now than at any other time this season and after back-to-back victories, I look for the home side to push the Blazers to brink here as well. The Blazers come in off a tough home win over the Nuggets and a “letdown/trap” looks imminent in my opinion. Note that Denver was playing without its top three players as well in that one, as Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray were all sitting out. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 7-8 ATS this year as well following a division game, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a win by six points or less. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. LA Lakers |
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04-09-19 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Pistons | Top | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are going to try and play spoiler here as the Pistons playoff hopes are still up in the air. The Grizz come in off a two-point loss to the Mavs, but Memphis has been competitive down the stretch and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here. Detroit comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 6-2 ATS this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Detroit is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a home loss by ten points or more. Look for Memphis to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Memphis Grizzlies 10* play |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver is gunning for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference still and I think it has a legitimate shot at completing a home and home sweep of the Blazers here. With their 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, Denver has wrapped up its first division title since 2010. The Nuggets though still have a shot at taking the No. 1 spot in the entire Western Conference, so I look for them to keep the foot on the gas here. The Blazers have gone 4-2 since losing big man Jusuf Nurkic and they continue to play without the services of star CJ McCollum as well. The pick: I’ll point out as well that the Blazers are now just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five vs. above .500 teams, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the +0.5 to +4.5 points range. Expect the visitors to take this one right down to the wire, if not scoring the outright upset in the process. Grab the points. Denver Nuggets 10* play |
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04-07-19 | Nets +3.5 v. Pacers | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The set-up: Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 133-128 road win over Milwaukee and I think it carries that momentum over here. Indiana comes in off a 117-97 home loss to Boston and I think it’ll have its hands full here vs. this surging Nets side. To say this is a “revenge” game as well would be a huge understatement, as the Pacers have won nine straight in the series, including two already this season. Neither team can let the foot off the gas as the playoffs loom, but from a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up fantastic for the visitors. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a losing SU record, while the Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. I’m grabbing the points, but I won’t be shocked by an outright upset. Brooklyn Nets 9* play |
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04-06-19 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming “down to the wire,” I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn’t bode well facing the Red Raiders right now. The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points. Texas Tech Red Raiders 10* play |
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04-05-19 | Celtics +1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 117-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics are on the road to face the Pacers and I’m expecting a complete war until the end. Boston comes in on top form after a home and home sweep of the Heat, most recently a 112-102 victory in Miami on Wednesday. The Pacers also come in off back-to-back wins, most recently a 108-89 victory at Detroit on Wednesday. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 108, while Indiana averages 108 PPG, while allowing only 104.1. The pick: Before beating the Pistons (twice, it was also a home and home set. Also note that Blake Griffin didn’t play for either), the Pacers had lost seven of their previous eight games. I like surging Boston to find a way to get the job done here as it looks for a leg-up in the playoff positioning. Boston Celtics 10* play |
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