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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-03-20 | Idaho +10.5 v. CS Sacramento | 67-53 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the hungry 5-15 Idaho Vandals sneak in under the radar here vs. the 11-8 Sacramento State Hornets. Both teams come in on losing streaks. Most recently Sacramento State fell 59-54 to Eastern Washington. Idaho lost 77-72 on the road to Northern Arizona. The pick: Note that the Hornets are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games after scoring 55 points or less in their previous contest, while the Vandals are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss. Grab the points and expect an all out war until the final horn! 9* DESTRUCTION on Idaho. |
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02-03-20 | Baylor v. Kansas State +7.5 | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Bears hold a one game lead over Kansas with a perfect 8-0 conference record. K-State is only 2-6 in league play and it's to pull off the upset here. Baylor is 5-0 on the road and its been exceptional defensively, but the Bears look poised for a mental letdown here in my opinion, with bottom feeder Oklahoma State up next, BU has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule. The pick: K-State has played its best basketball of the year at home, going 8-4 at Bramlage Coliseum thus far. Additionally note that K-State is still a sharp 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a road loss. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out war until the final horn. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on K-State. |
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02-03-20 | Knicks v. Cavs +1 | 139-134 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Knicks have won two of their last four, but I predict they'll have a predictable letdown here vs. this hungry Cavaliers team. Most recently New York beat the Pacers on the road. The Cavs have lost ten of their last 11, including three in a row. Kevin Love and company will be out for blood tonight. Also note that the Cavs play with revenge here, as NY is 2-1 in the season series thus far. The pick: Note as well the NY is just 11-13 ATS this year after covering in its prevoius game and only 11-14 ATS vs. clubs with losing records, while Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more. Look for the "hungrier" team to risk life and limb to get untracked. 8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers. |
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02-03-20 | Warriors v. Wizards -4.5 | 125-117 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like Bradley Beal and the home side to throttle the Warriors here. Golden State broke a five-game losing streak with a rare road win in Cleveland, but I believe it'll struggle to keep pace with the high-tempo and hungry Wizards in the Nation's capital tonight. The Wiz have won four of seven and Beal is playing his best ball of the season and he's playing with a chip on his shoulder because of the All Star snub. Expect that trend to continue here vs. this hapless Warriors defense. The pick: Note as well that Golden State is still just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 on the raod, while Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven at home. Look for Washington to go up early and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points. 8* play on the Washington Wizards. |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons +2 | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
The set-up: Detroit's slide has been brutal and while it's playing through injuries, I still believe it'll have more than enough in the tank here to push the visiting side to brink. Detroit comes in off another loss at home to Toronto as a 4.5 point underdog, while Denver knocked off the East leading Bucks in its last contest. And with a game at home on Tuesday vs. red hot Portland, who would fault the visitors for coming in complacent and looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today?! The pick: Additionally note that Denver is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games after scoring 125 points in a win in its last game, while Detroit is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten after five or more ATS losses in a row. I wouldn't in fact be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I'm grabbing the points. 10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST is on Detroit Pistons. |
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02-01-20 | Fordham +24.5 v. Dayton | Top | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Dayton is going to get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent today. Dayton has won ten in a row, but the Rams aren't going to roll over here. Most recently Fordham fell 62-52 to St. Bonaventure. Dayton comes off a 73-69 win over Duquesne. On paper, clearly the Flyers are the better team, but everything points to this being a letdown/trap in my opinion. The pick: Note that Fordham is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference road games as an underdog in the +23.5 to +27.5 points range, while Dayton is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference home games following a nine games or more SU unbeaten streak. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a solid cover. 10* play on Fordham. |
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02-01-20 | Wolves +10 v. Clippers | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wolves are out of playoff contention, but I think they'll put up a fight here after falling in OT at home to the Kings. Note that LA is also coming off a 20 points loss to the Kings. Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins both continue to play hard for Minnesota and I believe they'll keep their team in this one late. Kawhi Leonard didn't play last time out and there's a chance he won't play here either. The Clippers are not at 100% health and I think they're going to struggle with consistency again here. The pick: Also note that the Wolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following an OT home loss, while the Clippers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine home games following a 20 points or more SU loss. Grab the points, expecting a tight battle. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Timberwolves. |
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02-01-20 | Troy State +14.5 v. Georgia State | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: Troy got the better of Georgia State at home 75-65 two weeks ago. The Trojans though are in bounce back mode after an 86-57 loss to Georgia Southern. The Panthers' lone loss in their last five was against the Trojans. I think the "revenge" factor gets thrown out the window here, as Troy is still the "hungrier" team. The pick: Overall the Trojans have three victories over top five teams in the conference. Additionally note that Troy is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 conference road games as a double-digit underdog, while Georgia State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge a double-digit same season road loss. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 8* play on Troy. |
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02-01-20 | Ole Miss +11 v. LSU | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Rebels are hungry here. After breaking a six-game slide, they then lost in double OT at home to Auburn. LSU though comes in complacent here in my opinion, as it's won nine in a row, most recently over Alabama. Also note that this is a revenge game, as LSU posted the 80-76 road win in the reverse fixture. The pick: Additionally note that Ole Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games as a double digit dog and off an OT home loss, while LSU is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a six games or more unbeaten streak. I'm not calling for the outright, but everything points to this one being closer than what this spread would suggest. 8* play on Mississippi. |
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01-31-20 | Columbia +15 v. Yale | Top | 62-93 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the 14-4 Yale Bulldogs get caught looking past the 6-12 Columbia Lions. Columbia is 1-1 in Conference play after falling to Cornell at home last time out 62-50. Yale comes in complacent here though in my opinion after four straight wins, including starting conference play 2-0. Columbia averages 66.8 PPG and it allows 69.1. Yale averages 75.7 PPG and it allows 62.7. The pick: Note though that Columbia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Yale is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. This is a letdown spot for the Bulldogs in my opinion. Conversely, the Lions will be eager to pull of the upset here and while that likely won't happen, everything points to a more competitive battle than what this spread suggests. Grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on Columbia. |
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01-30-20 | CS Bakersfield +11.5 v. New Mexico State | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think CSUB comes in under the radar here vs. WAC-leading NMSU. The Runners are 4-2 to start WAC play. NMSU is 6-0 in WAC play. Note though that three of the Aggies last four wins have come by single digits. Teams regularly reserve The pick: The Roadrunners posted their second OT win of the season last Thursday by knocking off Utah Valley 58-59. CSUB then lost 86-79 at home to Seattle. I believe the hungry visitors do indeed push the home side to the limit and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright, everything points to this one being a competitive battle until the end. Grab the points. 8* play on Bakersfield. |
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01-30-20 | North Dakota State v. Western Illinois +7 | 70-49 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: North Dakota State is 14-7 and I think it'll have its hands full tonight vs. the hungry 5-13 Western Illinois Leathernecks. This is a big time revenge game for the desperate home side. The Bison have won 14 of the last 15, including all three meetings last year. The pick: Note as well that North Dakota State is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a home win against a conference rival, while WIU is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, including a sharp 4-1 ATS this year. Expect a battle until the final moments and grab all these points. 10* play on Western Illinois. |
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01-30-20 | Marshall +2 v. Florida International | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: Marshall won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost four of its last five. The Herd though are 3-5 in league play and they'll look to get off the schneid in this very winnable game. FIU was on a three-game win streak, but it enters off a humbling 75-49 loss to Charlotte. Marshall averages 74.6 PPG and it allows 72, while FIU averages 79.6 PPG and it allows 73.4. These teams are evenly matched, but I think Marshall is the "hungrier" side and I believe FIU is collectively rattled after its last poor performance. The pick: Note as well that Marshall is already 5-2 ATS this year as a road dog or pick, while FIU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a road loss by 20 points or more. I won't be surprised by an outright victory obviously, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 8* play on Marshall. |
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01-29-20 | Northwestern +17 v. Michigan State | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spartans and Wildcats played on December 18th and MSU hung on for the 77-72 win. I expect a similarily hard-fought affair tonight as well. MSU is tied for first in the Big Ten with a 7-2 record, while Northwestern is just 1-8 in league play. Note though that the Wildcats have faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country according to BPI. Most recently the Wildcats fell 71-59 to the Buckeyes. Overall NW averages 66.3 PPG and it allows 67.6. The Spartans lost 67-63 in Indiana, then bounced back with a 70-52 win over Minnesota. MSU averages 77.1 PPG and it allows 63.2. The pick: On paper MSU is the better team, but Northwestern comes in as the much "hungrier" side this evening. Note that none of the Wildcats' eight losses in conference play have come by more than 14 points. Additionally note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog of 13 points or more. I believe the home side leaves the back door open just enough for desperate visiting team to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Northwestern. |
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01-28-20 | Michigan -4 v. Nebraska | Top | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Nebraska is 7-13 and I think it'll have its hands full here with this determined 11-8 Michigan team. After starting 7-0, the Wolverines have gone just 8-4 since. The Wolverines had plenty of turn-over from last season and they've been dealing with injuries, but Nebraska is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The pick: Note that Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less and 5-0 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while Nebraska is already just 4-6 ATS at home this season and only 4-6 ATS this year after covering the spread in its previous game. I'm laying the points and expecting the "hungrier" team to deliver tonight. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan. |
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01-27-20 | Southern Utah v. Idaho +6.5 | Top | 73-45 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vandals won't be lacking for motivation today as they've dropped four in a row. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds can empathize, as they've lost two of their last three, including a crushing OT loss to EWU last time out. The "revenge factor" comes into play here as well for the home side, who has lost three straight in this series, including two in a row at home. The pick: Southern Utah averages 67 PPG and it allows 64. The Vandals have a stout defense as well which holds the opposition to just under 38 percent shooting on the year. Southern Utah is just 4-5 ATS this season as a favorite, while Idaho is 9-7 ATS as an underdog. In a contest which I envision being decided late, I'm grabbing as many points as I can. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Idaho. |
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01-27-20 | Mavs -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Luka Doncic will single-handidly will his team to victory here as he tries to make some sense of Kobe Bryant's death. The entire NBA World is in shock still and Doncic had a special early and recent relationship with Black Mamba. The Mavs are coming off a loss in Utah as well. OKC has won five straight and I think it's poised for a letdown here finally though. Also note that the Mavs play with the revenge factor after falling 106-101 here earlier in the season. Overall Dallas averages 116.6 PPG and it allows 108.1. The Thunder though average 110.8 PPG and they allow 109.8. The pick: Additionally note that Dallas is still a sharp 7-3 ATS this year as a road underdog and 5-2 ATS in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite this season, while OKC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 110 points or more in three straight games. Everything points to a big bounce back for this potent Mavs' offense in my opinion. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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01-27-20 | Devils +1.5 v. Senators | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm going to suggest laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. This is a game which I believe will be decided late, or even in extra time. The Sens are 1-5-4 in their last ten games, while the Devils are 4-5-1. The pick: The edge tonight really comes in the numbers/stats/trends though, as note that the Sens are just 1-5 in their last six as a home favorite vs. an Eastern Conference opponent, while the Devils are a solid 5-2 in their last seven when playing with three or more days rest. 6* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New Jersey Devils |
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01-26-20 | Clippers v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 112-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Orlando has lost 12 straight in this series, so motivation to break that slide is definitely working in their favor as well. The Clippers come in content after winning five of their last six, while the Magic have lost four of their last five. Most recently LA beat the Heat 122-117. LA averages 112.7 PPG and it allows 106.7. The Magic though are desperate here after a listless 109-98 to the Celtics on Friday. The Magic are averaging 105.8 PPG and they're allowing 106.8. The pick: Orlando's early offensive numbers are skewed though because of early injusry issues, but there's no excuses today. Note as well that the Clippers are already a poor 7-10 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more, while Orlando is a perfect 2-0 ATS off two or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite. With a game "on the road" at the Lakers on Tuesday, I believe the visitors rest players and get caught looking ahead as well. Grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Orlando Magic. |
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01-26-20 | Fordham +15 v. St. Louis | Top | 39-55 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 7-11 Fordham sneaks in under the radar here and finds a way to keep this one competitive vs. 14-5 St. Louis. The Rams come in with momentum as well, as they broke a five-game slide with a win over George Washington last time out. Saint Louis however enters suscepitble after two straight losses in my opinion. The Rams have struggled offensively this year, but the defense has been sharp in allowing only 61 PPG. The Billikens allow 66. And note that over its last four games Saint Louis has averaged just 66 PPG. The pick: Additionally note that the Billikens are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Fordham is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games following a SU/ATS win/cover. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham. |
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01-25-20 | Furman v. The Citadel +14.5 | Top | 78-54 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Citadel Bulldogs return home to start a two-game home stand. The Citadel is 54-47 all time vs. the Paladins in Charleston. The Citadel play with revenge here as well after Furman took both games last year. Furman is the better team on paper, but after its win over Samford, I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent tonight. The pick: Also note that Furman is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road and off a victory and as a favorite of ten points or more, while Citadel is 7-1 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the ten to 15.5 points range and off a loss. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Grab the points. 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Citadel. |
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01-24-20 | Celtics v. Magic | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: BOston is 11-9 away from TD Garden and it enters on a two-game win streak. Orlando is 13-9 at home this year and it's looking to bounce back off a loss. Overall Boston averages 112.3 PPG and it allows 105.7. Orlando averages 104 PPG and it concedes a league best 104 as well. Orlando has gotten healthier over the last month and that's seen the team have a dramatic turnaround in play across the board. The Magic though allow only 100 PPG at home, while the Celtics' offensive average drops to 108 on the road. The pick: Additionally note that Boston is a poor 2-4 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive home victories, while Orlando is a sharp 3-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite. Boston is dealing with injuries right now as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home victory. 10* DESTRUCTION on the Orlando Magic. |
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01-24-20 | Yale v. Brown +5.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Yale is 13-4 and its on the road to take on a hungry 7-7 Brown Bears team. Brown plays with revenge here, as it fell at Yale in mid January by a score of 70-56. Yale comes in off an 89-75 road win at Howard, but I think the Bulldogs will have their hands full tonight. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as Brown has had an extended period off, having not played since the loss at Yale. The pick: On paper Yale has the advantage, but note that it's just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing a game as a road favorite, while Brown is 4-2 ATS in its last six revenging a road loss of ten points or more and 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. I think the outright upset is definitely possible, but in the end I'm going to grab the points. 10* ANNIHILATOR on Brown. |
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01-23-20 | Lakers v. Nets +6 | Top | 128-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Nets have a lot of issues to resolve. They've been a much better home team than on the road though and they won't be lacking for motivation tonight facing the Lakers. LA comes to town off a come from behind win in New York just last night and it could very likely be sitting key pieces of its rotation in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Situationally I believe this one sets up great for the hungrier home side. The pick: But note as well that the Lakers are still just 8-9 ATS in non-conference games this year and only 40-49 ATS in their last 89 vs. clubs with losing records, while Brooklyn is already 6-3 ATS this season as a home underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter." 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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01-23-20 | Florida International v. Old Dominion -4 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: FIU is 13-6 and after two straight victories, I think it comes in a tiny bit complacnet here vs. 7-12 ODU, which enters off two straight losses. FIU plays at a fast pace, averaging 81 PPG, but its defense is horrible. The Monarchs are coming off a tough 66-62 loss to Charlotte. ODU's defense has been fantastic though, ranked 42nd in the league overall. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side. The pick: Note as well that the Monarchs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five at home, while the Panthers just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road dog after back-to-back victories. I'm laying the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Old Dominion. |
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01-22-20 | Manhattan v. Marist +4.5 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marist Red Foxes are after their second straight victory after getting the better of Iona 83-73. Matt Herasme had 17 points and 11 boards in the victory. It was a break out game for Marist, as it set season highs for field goal percentage, points scored, three-pointers made, three-point percentage, assists, rebounds and free throws made. The Manhattan Jaspers had won four of five to open league play before then falling 65-58 to Monmouth on Saturday. The pick: Manhattan is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing two straight home games (including 0-2 ATS this year), while Marist is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game. The Red Foxes come in off an inspiring win and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That said, grab the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Marist. |
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01-21-20 | Maryland v. Northwestern +7 | Top | 77-66 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This game will be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports 1 and I'm expecting an all out war. The Terps are 14-4, but I believe they'll have a fight on their hands today. In fact note, Maryland is 0-4 in true road games this year. The Terps have not let an opponent exceed 70 points in league play so far, but they come in averaging just 71.2 PPG. Northwestern is just 6-11 and it'll have a big opportunity to snap its frustration with a quality win this evening. Easier said than done, but note that the Wildcats do in fact have two wins over Top 100 teams and six of their last seven losses have been by single digits. Northwestern's offense catches a break today facing the slower paced Terrapins. The pick: Maryland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road favorite (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Northwestern is 8-3 ATS this season as an underdog. This one has "nail-biter" written all over it, so grab the points. 10* play on Northwestern. |
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01-21-20 | Akron v. Miami-OH +4 | 81-60 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: Akron is 4-1 ATS in its last five, but it comes to town off a ten-point home loss to Toledo last time out. Miami Ohio comes in hungrier here though after dropping four of its last five, including falling by nine at Ball State last time out. These two teams are always competitive. Miami Ohio though plays with revenge here as Akron has taken the last two between the schools, both SU and ATS. The pick: But note that Miami Ohio is was gone 4-1 SU at home the last five in this series, including 5-0 ATS. Akron is the better team on paper, but Miami Ohio is the hungrier and more desperate revenge-minded team on the floor. Grab the points. 8* play on Miami Ohio. |
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01-21-20 | Wichita State v. South Florida +3.5 | 56-43 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the home side to pull off the upset here. However, I'm going to recommend to grab the points instead of playing on the money line. The Shockers have suddenly lost back-to-back games and I think the hungry Bulls will take advantage of this now reeling visiting side. USF won't be lacking for motivation here either as it enters off a 55-54 road loss vs. UCF. Note that USF won this game at home last year by a score of 54-41. The Bulls struggle offensively, but they make up for it on the defensive end. The pick: Note as well that USF is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Wichita State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road favorite. South Florida's last three losses have come by a combined eight points. The stage is set for the outright, but as stated off the top, I'm grabbing the points. 8* play on USF. |
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01-20-20 | Bulls +14.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: On paper the Bucks are the much better team here. At 38-6 though, I think the home side comes out a bit complacent here vs. this 16-28 Bulls team. Chicago though does come in with some momentum after taking down the Cavaliers 118-116 last time out. The Bucks average 119.5 PPG and the Bulls average only 105.8. Chicago though had key players injured again to start the season, so this offense is only finally starting to come together. Both however sport similar defensive numbers, with the Bulls allowing only 107.8 PPG, while the Bucks concede 106.9. The pick: Chicago is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 5-3 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Milwaukee is just 11-14 ATS already this season after three or more SU victories. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Bulls. |
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01-20-20 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Charlotte is 10-6, but it comes in off an 80-63 loss to WKU. A game vs. 6-12 ODU sets up as a look-ahead/let-down spot for the 49ers though in my opinion. And ODU definitely won't be lacking for motivation here after it fell 68-67 to Marshall last time out. The pick: Note as well that Charlotte is a terrible 11-19 ATS in its last 30 as a road dog (including only 2-3 ATS this season), while ODU is a strong 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Old Dominion. |
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01-19-20 | Packers +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -130 | 155 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers jumped out to an early lead vs. the Seahawks in the Divisional Round and then had to hold on for dear life for the victory. Green Bay took the foot off the gas, but it won't have that luxury this weekend in hostile territory. The Packers lost to the 49ers in the regular season, but I believe Aaron Rodgers and company have much more than just a "punchers chance" at winning this one outright. The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 last weekend. San Francisco has the home field advantage and the slightly better defense, but Green Bay still has the clear advantage at the QB position in my opinion. Jimmy Garropolo is putting together a great season, but would anyone out there claim that he's solely responsible for getting his team to this point? Rodgers' vast experience gives the Packers the upper-hand at the QB position in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Green Bay is already 3-1 ATS as an underdog thi syear, while San Fran is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight wins vs. the spread, including only 1-3 ATS this season. Grab the points, expect a battle until the final moments. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Packers. |
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01-19-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois State +3 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 6-11 Illinois State is the "hungrier" team here. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question with a spread like this, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. Most recently Illinois State fell 84-74 to Drake to fall to 1-4 in Conference play. Overall the Redbirds average 67.2 PPG and they allow 70.6. Loyola Chicago averages 70 PPG and it allows 61. On paper and as stated above, this one favors the visitors. But I believe the Ramblers come in complacent after two straight wins. The pick: Note as well that Loyola Chicago is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten road games following a two games or more unbeaten ATS/SU streak, while Illinois State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games following a loss by ten or more points and as an underdog of four points or less. Everything points to the slight upset, grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Illinois State. |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its impressive road win over the Thunder, while I expect the Spurs to risk life and limb here for a victory after getting embarrassed at home by the Hawks in a close loss. Miami is at home tomorrow night as well to the Kings, so I believe this does in fact set up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors as well. The Spurs are now below .500 and they can ill afford to look past anyone. San Antonio has a game tomorrow night in Phoenix vs. an equally as desperate Suns team, making tonight's contest that much more imporant for the home side here. The pick: Note that Miami is just 4-5 ATS this year as a road favorite and only 4-5 ATS this season off a road win, while San Antonio is a sharp 7-3 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the home side to pull away down the stretch. 10* NON-CONFERENCE BEST OF THE BEST on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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01-18-20 | Georgia State v. Troy State +6.5 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Georgia State is 13-6 and it's won three straight. I think it gets caught looking past this desperate Troy home side, which has lost two in a row and five of its last six. Note though that Georgia State is just 4-6 in true road games this season. Georgia State has the better offense, but note that Troy is 5-4 at home. Also note that each team won its home floor in last year's season series. The pick: Note as well the Georiga State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following three game SU/ATS unbeaten streak, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after a three-games or more losing streak and as an underdog. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final moments. 8* SLAM-DUNK on Troy. |
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01-18-20 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +6.5 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: After falling to Kansas to open league play, WVU has rattled off thee straight Big 12 victories and it enters at 14-2 overall. K-State comes in as the "hungrier" team though as it's lost nine of its last 12. The Wildcats will be looking to get off the schneid here and earn their first conference victory of the year. The Wildcats are sharp defensively as well, holding the opposition to just 61.8 PPG on average. WVU averages only 72.1 PPG and I believe it'll have its hands full with his now desperate home side. The pick: Additionally note that WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten conference road games after three or more SU/ATS victories, while K-State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more losses and as an underdog of five points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this contest to be decided in the final moments. 10* CASH-BOMB on Kansas State. |
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01-18-20 | Elon +11 v. Delaware | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Elon comes in under the radar here, but hungry as ever after losing four of its last five games. Most recently the Phoenix fell 63-41 to Drexel. Delaware has lost four of five, most recently falling 77-68 to William and Mary. The Blue Hens are the better team on paper, but I think they get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The pick: Note as well that Delaware is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 following a SU loss, while Elon is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss. Grab the points and expect a battle until the end. 9* DESTRUCTION on Elon. |
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01-17-20 | Blazers v. Mavs -5.5 | Top | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas plays with revenge here after falling 121-119 in Portland earlier in the season. The Blazers have been more "miss" than "hit" this season, but after two straight victories and playing against this revenge minded home side, I believe Portland reverts to its usual sub-par self. The Mavs have looked better now that Luka Doncic is fully recovered from his ankle injury, as the Mavs enter this one off three straight victories. Doncic had 25 points, 15 boards and 17 assists in the most recent 127-123 win over the Kings. The pick: Note as well that Dallas is 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing SU record, while Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in a SU win in its previous outing. After a big win at Houston, I look for the Blazers to stumble in this difficult road venue. Lay the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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01-17-20 | Rider v. Niagara +4.5 | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the 9-6 Rider Broncs get caught lookin past the 4-11 Niagara Purple Eagles tonight. The Broncs come in off a 69-52 win over a weak Marist team, while Niagara enters off a much-needed 70-69 victory over Iona at home in its latest action. Rider has so far averages 72.9 PPG and it's allowed 71.3. The Purple Eagles average 66.6 PPG and they allow 76.2. Clearly on paper Rider is the better team, but I think this one sets up great situationally for the "hungrier" home side. The pick: Note as well that Rider is already a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this season and just 3-4 ATS after playing a road game this year, while Niagara is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog. Rider's form on the road hasn't been great and I believe it'll have its hands full. Clearly the outright win isn't out of question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Niagara. |
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01-16-20 | Golden Knights v. Senators +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -154 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden Knights made a controversial coaching change which hasn't sat well with players, fans and the media. Expectations are so unreal in Las Vegas after its improbable run to the Stanley Cup Final in its inaugural season. Sometimes coaching changes have a positive effect right out of the gate for a team (just look at the Leafs this year as a prime example), but in this case I believe it's going to back fire. The Knights have lost four in a row and I think the Sens are going to pour it on here to try and pull off the upset and to kick this team while its down. Besides, the Sens could care less about a four-game win streak, as they enter desperate to break an eight-game slide. Situationally, this sets up great for the home side in my opinion. The pick: NOte as well that Las Vegas is a horrible 7-11 (-10.3 units) this year in all non-conference games. These are two poor teams. But in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to recommend to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Senators on the PUCK LINE. |
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01-16-20 | Middle Tennessee +9 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 4-13 MTSU comes in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 11-6 FAU. The Blue Raiders have lost eight straight, while FAU has gone 9-3 in its last 12. The Owls though come off a poor 81-58 loss to UNT and with 11-6 UAB invading in two nights, I think this definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. On paper, clearly FAU is the better team. But losing wears on teams and I don't think we have to question MTSU's resolve and focus tonight. A great situational play for sure here in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that MTSU is a sharp 7-2 ATS in its last nine off two straight losses against a conference rival, while FAU is already a poor 4-5 ATS this season vs. schools with losing records. No outright, but a 'nail-biter.' Grab the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Middle Tennessee State. |
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01-15-20 | Flyers +1.5 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: In a game which I see being decided late or in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I think Brian Elliot and Jordan Binnington are a "wash" here. The Flyers come in off a hard-fought 6-5 shootout win over the Bruins and I think they carry that offensive momentum over here (outshot Boston 39-31.) I think St. Louis, which enters having won four in a row, takes the foot off the gas here in this non-conference matchup. Note that the Blues have two whole nights off after this before an extended Western road trip which games at Colorado, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton all on the horizon. This is definitely a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Philly is 10-5 (+5 units) in its last 15 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while St. Louis is a money-burning 9-9 (-1.9 units) this season in non-conference games. 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Flyers. |
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01-15-20 | Pacers v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers are the better team on paper. But this is the opener of a home and home set and I think the home side is going to risk life and limb here to try and pull off the minor upset. After two straight wins, complacency kicks in for Indiana and after two straight losses, a sence of urgency for the home side. The Pacers just managed a 101-95 win over the 76ers last time out, but it certainly wasn't pretty. In fact note that Indiana has lost six of its last 11 overall. Note as well that the home team won and covered in each game in this series last year. The Wolves are coming off a 117-104 loss at home to OKC. Both teams are playing without key players for this series (Victor Oladipo and Karl Anthony Townes), but I think this one sets up great for the Wolves situationally. The pick: Note as well that the Pacers are already a poor 3-5 ATS this year after covering in three of their last four against the spread, while Minnesota is a sharp 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season. I'm banking on the home court advantage being sigificant tonight. This one means more to Minnesota. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Timberwolves. |
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01-15-20 | Fordham +17 v. Duquesne | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 14-2 Duquesne, which enters having won four straight, will get caught "looking past" the lowly 6-9 Fordham Rams. The Dukes most recently held on for a 66-61 win over George Washington. The Rams though have lost four of their last five and they've yet to get a conference victory. Most recently they fell 64-44 to St. Bonaventure. Fordham has two players averaging in double figures and Duquesne has three. On paper this one favors the Dukes, but with a more difficult 10-5 opponent in the Rhode Island Rams up next, I do indeed belive the home side gets caught looking ahead here as well.  The pick: The Rams are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 65 points or less in four straight games, while the Dukes are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest (including only 1-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter." 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Fordham. |
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01-14-20 | Devils v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 102 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning nine of their last ten, the Leafs come in razor focussed after three straight losses. The Devils are still in last place in the Metropolitan, but they've been playing a lot better of late, including a highly satisfying 3-1 win over the Lightning last time out. Previous to that they beat the Pens. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? The pick: Toronto is 10-5 (+4.3 units) in its last 15 after three or more consecutive losses, while New Jersey is just 12-19 (-2 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 3-4 (-1.1 units) this season after a win by two goals or more. I expect Toronto to win. And win big! Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return in this one. 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Toronto Maple Leafs PUCK-LINE. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -115 | 226 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each team. LSU has been an unstoppable juggernaut this year, but note that the underdog has covered in six straight National Championship Games. The defending champs can draw from experience here as well. LSU and Joe Burrow have been the "talk of the town," but this Clemson offense and defense has the talent (and as mentioned above, the experience in "the big game!") to not only cover this game, but to obviously win outright as well. We don't have to look further than some of the NFL upsets or near upsets etc. The Titans are a well coached team which has game-planned perfectly to advance to the Conference Championships. The pick: LSU has had some "close calls" as well this season (Texas, Auburn and Alabama.) On top of the underdog covering in six straight Nat Champ Games, note as well that Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on two weeks rest, while LSU is 0-4 ATS this year after posting 450 yards or more of offense in its prevoius game. I think Dabo Swinney still has something up his sleeve. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Clemson. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 130 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Is Russel Wilson a "better" QB than Aaron Rodgers right now? Probably. But not by much. Wilson managed to get the most out of his injured team and they took advantage of the fact that Philly' QB Carson Wentz got knocked out early with an injury. The Hawks looked tired now in my opinion. Note that last week they committed 11 penalties for 114 yards. WR DK Metcalf was a bright spot though with 160 receiving yards. I like Rodgers here at home and with a week off to prepare. The Green Bay furture Hall of Famer isn't the same player he used to be, but this is a spot in which I think he can take full advantage of. Note that Green Bay was sixth in red zone efficiency this year. The pick: Additionally note that the Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff contests, while the Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. When you add it all up, I think this one has blowout from start to finish written all over it. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Green Bay Packers. |
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01-12-20 | Wright State v. Illinois-Chicago +6.5 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: 15-3 Wright STate is at 6-12 Illinois Chicago and I believe that the under the radar home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Raiders enter off an 80-64 win over IUPUI, while UIC fell 68-52 to UNK last time out. Revenge also comes into play here after Wright State took both games in this serires last year. Overall Wright State averages 81.1 PPG and it allows 72.2. The Flames average 65.4 PPG and they allow 72.2. The pick: Wright State though has responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS In its last nine home games following a loss in which it posted 55 points or less in. Conversely, Wright State is already a poor 1-4 ATS this season after playing a road game. Expect the Flames to lay everything on the line and while I wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Illinois Chicago. |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10.5 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 154 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Tennessee to keep this one closer than expected. Derrick Henry is a beast and behind the improved play of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans won a very tricky game at Foxborough last weekend. Beating Bill Bellichick on his own field and after such a tragic loss in Week 17 as well is very impressive in my books. The Titans are playing really good football right now in all three phases. They won't be intimidated whatsoever after posting the Playoff win in New England vs. the defending champs either. And will "rest" lead to "rust" for LaMar Jackson and company? Jackson will have to carry the load here with a minor injury to RB Mark Ingram. This is significant in my opinion. The pick: Tennessee is a sharp 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Baltimore is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7 to 14 points range, including 0-2 ATS this season. I'm not calling for an outright, but all signs point to this one once again coming down to the wire. 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tennessee Titans. |
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01-11-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Texas-Arlington -5 | Top | 82-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the 10-7 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are going to have their hands full today with the 6-11 UT Arlington Mavericks. The Chanticleers are averaging over 80 PPG in the early going, but they enter off a poor 78-66 loss to Texas State. A lot of their early numbers are skewed because of the level of competition. UTA on the other hand has struggled for most of the season with consistency, but it comes in playing its best basketball of the season and off its biggest win thus far, outlasting App State 66-56. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but CC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games following a loss in which it allowed 75 points or more inw, while UTA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games after a SU win in which it held its opponent to 59 points or less in. This one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on UT Arlington. |
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01-10-20 | Iona +7.5 v. Rider | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the 2-7 Iona Gaels come in under the radar here and keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest vs. 8-5 Rider. Iona came into this season having won four straight MAAC championships, but it enters this contest having losgin five in a row. The Gaels are 2-5 on the road this season. Coach Tim Cluess has his work cut out for him if he wants to avoid his first losing campaign as boss since he took over ten years ago. Rider has been the better team "on paper" so far this year, but it comes in off its first conference loss (a poor 80-61 setback to Quinnipiac) and I believe it's primed for another letdown here vs. this unbelievably hungry defending league champion. The pick: Note as well that the Gaels are 4-1 ATS in their last five after faling to cover six or seven of their last eigth vs. the spread, while Riders is a poor 0-3 ATS this season already following a conference game. I think the "hungrier" team will at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points. 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iona. |
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01-08-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State +11 | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Nevada has won its last two games, but it's just 1-2 on the road this year. The Wolf Pack are unbeaten in MWC play and while I think they'll keep that record in tact with another victory here, I don't think it's going come easily. SJSU is now six games under .500 after a 79-64 loss on the road to Fresno State. Clearly on paper the Wolf Pack is superior, but I think the hungry home side doesn't go down without a fight here. The pick: Additionally note that Nevada is a poor 10-12 ATS in its last 22 off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival, while SJSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog in the 9.5 to 12 points range. Considering the above factors, I'm grabbing the points. 9* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State. |
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01-08-20 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +16 | Top | 72-52 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Am I predicting that the 5-11 Wyoming Cowboys are going to upset the 15-0 SDSU Aztecs SU tonight? I'm not. But I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. SDSU is no joke, winning big road games at BYU and Utah State. Most recently the Aztecs faced Utah State on the road and won by a score of 77-68. Overall SDSU averages 75.7 PG and it allows 56.8. The Cowboys come in off a 72-61 loss at Colorado State. Overall Wyoming averages 60.4 PPG and it allows 66.4. The pick: I'll point out though that the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while SDSU is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I think SDSU wins this game, but I don't think it'll cover this large spread again on the road and in this difficult venue. Grab the points. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Wyoming. |
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01-07-20 | Kings v. Suns -6 | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a win over the Warriors at home just last night and I believe they'll struggle to keep up with this focus Suns team, which is desperate for a victory after falling to Memphis last time out. The Suns are in the middle of an important five-game home stretch and I expect them to risk life and limb to take advantage of this favorable situation. The pick: The Suns are still averaging 114.2 PPG this year, while the Kings are still averaging only 105.9. Phoenix has already taken two of three matchups between the clubs this year and I look for it to continue that trend of success tonight. Lay the points. 8* play on the Suns. |
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01-07-20 | Valparaiso v. Southern Illinois -2 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Valpo is 8-7 and Southern Illinois is 7-8. This is a revenge game for the Salukies, as Valparaiso has won three of the last four between the clubs, including 55-52 last year. Both teams come in off victories, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Valpo though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its upset OT win over Evansville last time out. The Salukis cruised to a 67-55 win over Illinois State last time out and four starters put up double-digit in points. I believe the home side carries that momentum over here. The pick: Valpo is also a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, while SIU is already 6-1 ATS at home this season. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Southern Illinois. |
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01-07-20 | Thunder v. Nets +2 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder enter off a loss in Philadelphia. The Nets come in off a loss to Orlando just last night as well. In this contest where both team's played just last night, I believe that the home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor once it's all said and done. OKC's recent run came to a crashing halt last night, while Brooklyn has now lost six in a row. I believe that Spencer Dinwiddie and company lay everything on the line here to get off the schneid and to take advantage of this particular matchup. The pick: Note as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine Eastern road swings in the second game of the back to back and coming off a loss in the first, while the Nets are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season as a home underdog of six points or less. I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright. 10* play on the NETS. |
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01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette -14 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 654 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: It's 8-5 Miami Ohio vs. 10-3 Louisiana Lafayette in the Lending Tree Bowl and in my opinion, this one has ATS blowout written all over it. Despite ranking 77th in the KemPom power rankings, Miami Ohio still made it to this bowl game. Lafayette ranks 11th in the KenPom rankings (and note that two of the Cajuns losses this year came from App State by a combined 17 points.) The RedHawks had an easy schedule this year and QB Brett Gabbert finished with an unimpressive 11:8 TD:INT. The Cajuns average 38.8 PPG, led by QB Levi Lewis who had a 24:4 TD:INT. The pick: Note that the RedHawks are just 2-10 ATS in their last non-conference games, while Louisiana Lafayette is already 3-1 ATS this season as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Look for the high-powered Cajuns to dominate throughout all three phases and lay the points. 10* BLOWOUT on UL Lafayette. |
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01-05-20 | Grizzlies v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns come in off a 120-112 win over New York. They play with revenge here after falling to Memphis earlier in the year. This is an important stretch for the Suns, as they play the Grizzlies today, followed by very winnable games vs. the Kings, Magic, Hornets, Hawks and Knicks. I think the Suns lay the hammer down here from start to finish as they push hard over this stretch vs. this "lesser" competition. And for the Grizzlies? They come in off a highly satisfying 140-114 blowout road victory over the Clippers just last night! The pick: Note as well that Memphis is just 36-45 ATS in its last 81 vs. teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 17-5 ATS this year in revening a loss vs. an opponent. This one has home side blowout written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points. 10* REVENGE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Phoenix Suns. |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 154 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eagles finished 9-7, while the Hawks ended up 11-5. Seattle almost knocked off the 49ers at home in Week 17, but it just wasn't to be. The Eagles had to sweep their final four games to punch their ticket, including a win over the Giants in Week 17. The Hawks will be without the services of WR Jaron Brown, who suffered a torn MCL in the loss to San Fran. That's going to put added pressure on QB Russell Wilson to carry the load and manage the game today. He'll also be leaning heavily on his run game, as Marshawn Lynch looked stronger as the game progressed in his first action in a while vs. the 49ers. The Eagles are also dealing with injury to RB Miles Sanders, who is listed as questionable here. Carson Wentz may have TE Zach Ertz back in the line-up today, but like his counterpart, the veteran pivot will have to shoulder the responsibility today if his team is going to win this one. Both teams are going to rely on their run game to alleviate that pressure from their QB's though. Each is banged up on the offensive side as well. Ultimately though I feel that Wilson's experience and the Seahawks depth across the board will win the day between these two injured teams. The pick: Additionally note that Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Philly is only 3-4 ATS at home this season and just 3-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm backing Seattle. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seahawks. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7.5 | 26-20 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Saints have home field advantage and they have a chance to avenge the 2018 Minneapolis Miracle, in which the Vikes beat New Orleans on a 61 yard TD to send them to the Conference Championship game as time expired. Dalvin Cook is expected back for the Vikes, but after taking a whole month off with injury, I believe he'll be inconsequential this evening. Kirk Cousins has a 26:6 TD:INT, but I believe he'll have difficulties keeping pace with Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and the rest of the high-flying Saints this evening. The pick: New Orleans steam rolled Carolina 42-10 last weekend and I believe it carries that offensive and defensive momentum over into the Wild Card. Brees missed several games with injury and still finished with 27 TD's. Additionally note that Minnesota is already a poor 1-3 ATS as a road dog this year, while New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite. I expect at least a ten point victory here, so lay the points. 8* DESTRUCTION on the Saints. |
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01-05-20 | Dayton v. St. Joe's +16 | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 12-2 Dayton gets caught "looking past" lowly 3-10 St. Joe's today. Most recently Dayton got the better of La Salle 84-58. The Flyers are one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and it's difficult to say anything negative about them. I simply feel that they come in complacent here, while I believe the Hawks risk life and limb here to try and pull off the upset. Keep your eyes on Ryan Daly for the home side, he's the only Hawk to average in double digits in scoring this year. The pick: Additionally note that Dayton is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of 16.5 points or higher on the tail of a three games or more unbeaten streak, while St. Joe's is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as an underdog in the 15.5 to 21.5 points range. I think the hungry home side keeps this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on St. Joseph's.  |
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01-04-20 | Youngstown State v. Cleveland State +3.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 5-10 Cleveland State brings everything it has this afternoon to try and pull off this upset vs. 9-6 Youngstown State. This is the home opener for Cleveland State as far as Confernece play is concerned, and that's always a big deal. Cleveland State opened up league action by splitting on the road vs. UIC and IUPUI. The Vikings' record though is more indicative of the level of competition they had to play in non-conference action, as those opponents had a combined record of 95-62. Off an 82-80 win over IUPUI, I like Cleveland State to keep the momentum rolling hee at home. The pick: And if recent history is any precedence, then the Vikings have to be loving their chances here, as they took both games vs. Youngstown State last season. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window. That was last year and the Vikings can't afford to take the foot off the gas now after the slow start. The outright is indeed possible in my opinion, but in the end I'll grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on Cleveland State. |
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01-04-20 | Tulane -6.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 598 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulane is 6-6 and I think it'll give 7-5 Southern Miss everything it can handle today. Both teams backed their way into this Bowl game and each has had plenty of time off to prepare. Tulane's best win of the year came against Houston, 38-31 this season. Overall the Green Wave average 455.2 YPG, which ranks 24th nationally. Tulane isn't terrible defensively either, allowing 378.9 YPG. The Golden Eagles also had some big wins, including a road victory over Troy. Back-to-back losses to end the year didn't help though, falling 28-10 to WKU and 34-17 to FAU. The pick: Tulane though is already 5-1 ATS this year as a favorite, while Southern Miss is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog. The Wave have a healthier team on the field today and I think that matters. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout. 10* BLOWOUT on Tulane. |
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01-03-20 | Blazers -5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 122-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Portland Trail Blazers. |
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01-03-20 | Wright State v. Oakland +3.5 | Top | 96-69 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Oakland. |
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01-02-20 | Flyers +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I lay chalk when I think the situation calls for it. I believe that the Flyers are worth laying the chalk here for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Philly comes in off a 5-3 loss to LA, so it'll be hungry and focussed here after that hiccup. The Knights come in off a 5-2 win over the Ducks, but I think they'll get caught looking past their non-conference opponent today. The pick: The Flyers are 7-3 (+3.7 units) in their last ten after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Golden Knights are just 6-8 (-5.8 units) this season in non-conference contests. I think Las Vegas is set up for the letdown here, but as mentioned above, in a contest which I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals. 10* NON-CONF PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Philadelphia Flyers. |
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01-02-20 | Raptors v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors have played better than most thought they would this year without Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. Every night Toronto takes the court it has a target on its back as teams try to knock off the defending champs. Toronto is 3.5 games back of Miami and it comes to town without the services of key figures Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol. Miami beat Toronto 121-110 in OT back on December 3rd in the lone matchup this year and I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards here at home. Toronto is off a 117-97 win over the Cavs, while Miami enters off a poor 123-105 loss to the lowly Wizards. The pick: Note that Toronto is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven in South Beach, while Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss. Look for the Heat to play with passion from start to finish after their latest embarrassing effort as they look to kick this injured Raptors team from start to finish. 10* play on the HEAT. |
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01-02-20 | Hornets +2.5 v. Cavs | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: The pick: 8* play on the HORNETS. |
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01-02-20 | St. Joe's +13.5 v. Richmond | Top | 52-84 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset here. The 3-9 St. Joe's Hawks though won't be lacking for motivation today as they try to pull off the upset vs. the 10-3 Spiders. Richmond's early record has much to do with strength of schedule. The same can also be said of the Hawks. The Spiders though enter having lost two straight, falling 90-78 to Alabama and then getting crushed at home by Radford 73-58. St. Joes on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 84-69 victory over William and Mary. The Spiders average 76.3 PPG and the Hawks average 71.6. The pick: I think it sets up well for the hungry Hawks to keep this one close from a situational stand point, but also note that the Hawks have responded well in this spot from an ATS angle as well, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a dog. The Spiders on the other hand are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after a loss by ten points or more. I look for the Hawks to build off their latest performance and to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 10* UPSET SHOCKER BEST OF THE BEST on St. Joes. |
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01-02-20 | Tennessee v. Indiana +2.5 | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Vols went 7-5 and the Hoosiers went 8-4. Indiana' QB Payton Ramsey finished with 2,227 yards passing with 13 TD's in ten games. The Hoosiers averaged 444 yards per game on offense, including 308.7 per game through the air, which ranked 13th in the country. Indiana was also stout on the defensive side, allowing only 24.5 PPG, which ranks 49th. Vols' QB Jarrett Guarantano threw for 1,937 yards and a 16:6 TD:INT. A blow to Tennessee's offense today though is the loss of WR Jauan Jennings, who had 942 receiving yards and eight major scores, but who is suspended. The pick: Additionally note that Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 3-10 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 1-3 ATS this season), while Indiana is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records. I like Ramsey to take advantage of the Vols' suspect secondary. Grab the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Indiana. |
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01-02-20 | Boston College +7 v. Cincinnati | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -105 | 553 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: BC became bowl eligible after knocking off Pittsburgh in its regular season finale. Cincinnati was rolling along nicely until back-to-back losses to Memphis (losing in the regular season finale, as well as the Conference USA Championship game.)BC Head Coach Steve Addazio was let go, so that means that this one means a lot to interim coach Rich Gunnel. BC' QB Dennis Grosel stepped in admirably for Anthony Brown and I think he'll have his opportunities vs. this Bearcats' secondary which ranks 80th in the league vs. the pass. BC is going to have its hands full stopping Cincinnati's rush attack, which averages 198 YPG on the ground. QB Desmond Ridder had a week 17:9 TD:INT though. The pick: I'll point out as well that BC is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine as a dog in teh 3.5 to ten points range (including 5-0 ATS this year), while Cinncy is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm grabbing the points. 10* BLOWOUT on Boston College. |
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01-01-20 | Wyoming +16.5 v. Boise State | Top | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Wyoming beat Nebraska Wesleyan 82-68 in its last outing, while Boise State got the better of CSU Northridge on Saturday, winning 103-72. Jake Hendricks had 21 points for the Cowboys in their latest win. I think the lowly Cowboys catch the Broncos complacent here. Boise State has won three straight and I do indeed expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The pick: The numbers/trends support us as well, as note that Boise State is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 off a home win by ten points or more, including only 1-3 ATS this year, while Wyoming is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home victory. I like the improving visiting side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Wyoming. |
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01-01-20 | Wisconsin v. Oregon +2.5 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 532 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the 11-2 Ducks and the points vs. the 10-3 Badgers. The Ducks upset Utah 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship and I look for them to carry that momentum over here. That was a huge victory and it catapulted them immediately into this contest, while ruining the Utes' chances at a playoff spot. Perhaps the most impressive part of the victory was holding the powerful Utes to just 15 points. I think senior Justin Herbert wil be a difference maker here, as he enters with a sharp 32:5 TD:INT. The Badgers had a 21-7 lead over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, but then the Buckeyes blew them out 27-0 in the second half. QB Justin Fields was a bright spot in the setback with 300 yards and three TD's, but I believe he'll have his hands full with a Ducks' defense which held six teams to single-digits in points this year.  The pick: Note as well that Wisconsin is already 0-2 ATS this year off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a win by 21 points or more. I like Herbert and the Ducks' suffocating defense to build off their latest performance; grab the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Oregon. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama -7 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 528 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It's 9-3 Michigan vs. 10-2 Alabama. Michigan QB Shea Patterson finished with a 22:6 TD:INT. The Wolverines allow just 3.03 YPC on the defensive side. For the most part Michigan looked pretty good this year, but it did struggle against its elite opponents, which led to the overall disappointing record once it was all said and done. The pick: Talk about disappointments, the fact that the Tide weren't in the playoff was viewed by many as a major mistake. A loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl was the final nail in the coffin to their hopes. That said, I still think that Mac Jones is going to have his opportunities here. Additionally note that Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a dog (including only 1-2 ATS this season,) while Bama is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its previous outing. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Alabama. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -107 | 528 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: 10-2 Minnesota takes on 9-3 Auburn in the Outback Bowl and in my opinion, I think the Tigers have a clear upper-hand. Both teams looked pretty good overall this year. Minnesota lost 38-17 to Wisconsin in its finale. QB Tanner Morgan had a sharp 28:6 TD:INT this season, but I think he'll have his hands full here with this stingy Tigers' defense. Auburn comes in with a ton of momentum after holding on for an upset 47-45 win over Alabama in its finale. QB Bo Nix had a 15:6 TD:INT. The defense allows only 18.6 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is a poor 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Auburn is a strong 6-2 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. I think the Tigers' defense is the difference maker. Lay the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Auburn. |
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12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah -6.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -120 | 510 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the 11-2 Utes to lay the hammer down on the 7-5 Longhorns. Utah is out for redemption here as it fell 37-15 in the Pac 12 Championship Game to Oregon. Sam Ehlinger and Texas beat Texas Tech 49-24 in their finale. Overall the Longhorns average 35 PPG, while allowing 28.9. The Utes though are ranked sixth in the country on the defensive side of the ball, allowing only 13.2 PPG. Utah also possesses a strong offense, led by QB Tyler Huntley who has 2,966 passing yards and an 18:4 TD:INT. The pick: Note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Texas is only 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. The Utes' elite defense will be able to center in on Ehlinger here and I believe that Texas will have a hard time keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. 8* play on Utah. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State +7 v. Wyoming | 17-38 | Loss | -106 | 507 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: 7-5 Georgia State gets ready to pull off an upset over 7-5 Wyoming. The Cowboys though finised up terribly, losing three of their last four. Wyoming is very one-dimensional on the offensive end, ranked 27th in rushing and 125th with the pass. The Cowboys also only concede 17.8 PPG. Georgia State also stumbled down the stretch, losing three of four and just like the Cowboys, the Panthers rely on a strong run game on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 245.2 YPG, which is ranked 14th in the country. The pick: Wyoming only averages 24.3 PPG though, and that drops to just 15.3 PPG over its last four. The Panthers were terrible defensively down the stretch, but those numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of the competition. Georgia State' QB Dan Ellington had a sharp 21:7 TD:INT and I think he'll keep his team competitive late. Wyoming is sixth against the rush, but 111th against the pass. Look for Ellington and the Panthers to take advantage. Grab the points. 8* play on Georgia State. |
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12-31-19 | Kansas State +2 v. Navy | 17-20 | Loss | -117 | 507 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like K-State to pull off the minor upset here today vs. 10-2 Navy. Kansas State finished 8-4 and won its last two games. The Midshipmen won eight of their final nine contests. Navy most recently crushed hapless Army, outrushing the Knights 395-123. K-State' QB Skylar Thompson though is a dual threat, throwing for 2,000 yards and 12 TD's, while running in for another ten on the ground. The pick: K-State held both Iowa State and Texas Tech to less than 80 rushing yards each in its final two victories of the year and I believe they're going to be able to slow down this run heavy Navy attack. Additionally note that K-State is 6-2 ATS already this year when playing the role of underdog, while Navy is already only 1-3 ATS this season after allowing 14 points or less in its previous outing. Grab the points. 8* play on Kansas State. |
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12-31-19 | Florida State v. Arizona State -4 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 505 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think that 6-6 Florida State will have its hands full with 7-5 Arizona State. Both teams enter with some momentum. FSU though got crushed in its final game vs. Florida, while ASU, who has looked far from perfect, will still now be looking to build off its season closing 31-28 upset win over Oregon, which pushed it out of the championship. FSU is led by James Blackman and RB Cam Akers, who had 1,144 rushing yards and 14 TD's. At the end of the day the Seminoles averaged 29.1 PPG. ASU' QB Jayden Daniels had 400 passing yards and three TD's in the win over Oregon. Daniels is a difference maker here in my opinion, as the talented back finished with a sharp 17:2 TD:INT. The pick: Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog and 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while ASU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss. I think the balance that ASU presents on both sides of the ball will be too much for FSU to handle down the stretch. Lay the points. 8* play on ASU. |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | 37-30 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the 8-4 Virginia Tech Hokies to find a way to get the job done here. Kentucky is 7-5 and is reliant upon its ground game on offense, while VT has a much more balanced attack. Ultimately I believe it's this balance which will win the day on this one. VT had won three straight before then falling 39-30 to UVA in rivarly week. QB Hendon Hooker was decen this year with 1,445 yards passing and an 11:2 TD:INT. The pick: The Wildcats ended the season with a 45-13 win over Louisville, as Lynn Bowden Jr. had 284 yards and four TD's. I think VT though can slow down Bowden Jr and note that the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games, while VT is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. Lay the points. 8* play on Virginia Tech. |
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12-30-19 | Suns v. Blazers -4 | Top | 122-116 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Suns. Phoenix just broke its seven-game losing streak vs. the Kings and they now face a desperate Blazers team, which has lost three in a row and which will emabark on tough Western road swing after this contest. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" scenario for Phoenix. The Blazers defeated the Suns by only one point earlier in the year, so they definitely won't be looking past their opponent today either. The pick: Additionally note that Phoenix is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive losses. I'm laying the points and expecting the home side to risk life and limb from start to finish. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Portland Trail Blazers. |
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12-30-19 | Detroit +31 v. Gonzaga | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cleary I'm not predicting an outright win for 2-11 Detroit today, but I do think that the 13-1 Bulldogs will get caught "looking past" their lowly non-conference opponent today to the New Years break and then conference action. Most recently the Titans were competitive in another loss to Oakland, falling 78-69. Overall Detroit averages 66.9 PPG and it allows 79.8. Keep your eyes on Antoine Davis, who averages 25.2 points and 4.4 assists per game. The Bulldogs average 88.2 PPG and they allow 68.1. Filip Petrusev leads Gonzaga in scoring this season, averaging 16.7 PPG. The pick: Note though that Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this year after failing to cover in two of its last three vs. the spread, while Gonzaga is already just 3-4 ATS this year after three or more SU victories. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points. 8* DESTRUCTION on Detroit. |
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12-30-19 | Green Bay +6.5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Wisconsin Green Bay is 5-9 and Northern Kentucky is 9-4. The Phoenix are the "hungrier" team here and while their defense leaves everything to be desired, they average a whopping 82.7 PPG. Most recently Green Bay fell 90-84 to a tough Wright State team. The Phoenix often play five guards on the floor at once and I think they'll stretch the Norse today, who rely on their play in the paint to score. UNK has won three of its last four after pulling away for a 74-64 win over Milwaukee last time out. The pick: I'll point out though that the Phoenix are already 6-3 ATS on the road this season and 6-1 ATS in their last seven after a loss by six points or less. UNK on the other hand is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range and interestingly 0-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which concede 77 plus points per contest. I think the Phoenix' unorthodox style and high-scoring rate proves to be the difference in this one. That said, let's grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wisconsin Green Bay. |
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12-30-19 | Illinois +7 v. California | 20-35 | Loss | -120 | 483 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright win? It's possible obviously. But in a contest which I envision to be very competitive, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams finished 6-6. Cal had to win its last two games to become eligible, while Illinois backed its way into this Bowl after losing its final two outings. Cal is stout defensively, allowing only 22.1 PPG. Unfortunatley it only averages 20.1 PPG, led by QB Chase Garbers. The Illini lost 19-10 to Iowa and then 29-10 to Northwestern. Illinois though averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 25.4. The pick: Despite injuries, I like the Fighting Illini here. Note as well that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off two straight loss against conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Cal is only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 2-4 ATS this year.) Grab the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Illinois. |
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12-30-19 | Mississippi State v. Louisville +5.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic at 7-5. After three straight victories it dropped its finale 45-13 to Kentucky. The road to this bowl was more difficult for Mississippi State though, which finshed 6-6, including a close one in its finale vs. Ole Miss to finally become eligible. The Cards like to run the ball, but expect to see a heavy dose of QB Micale Cunningham, as the Bulldogs are allowing 241.3 passing yards per game. Mississippi State likes to run the ball as well, averaging 226.9 YPG and while the Cardinals have struggled against the run this year, Louisville isn't going to have to worry about much of a passing attack this evening, as the Bulldogs are outside the Top 100 in that category, averaging 176 passing YPG. The pick: Note as well that Mississippi State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site favorite and only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 3-1 ATS already this season after allowing 37 points or more in its previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Louisville. |
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12-30-19 | Western Michigan +3 v. Western Kentucky | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 480 h 33 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like 7-5 Western Michigan to pull off the minor upset vs. 8-4 WKU. The Hilltoppers have a decent offense, but they're led by their defense which allows 20.1 PPG. WMU though will be especially motivated here in my opinion because of the way its season ended. The Broncos lost to NIU 17-14 in their finale, which cost them a shot in the MAC Title game. WMU's offense though is among the best in the nation, averaging 34.2 PPG, behind a 24th ranked rushing attack. WKU QB Ty Storey has a weak 12:5 TD:INT. WMU is 69th in the country in defending the pass and 94th vs. the run. The pick: I'll point out though that WMU is 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after scoring less than 20 points in its previous contest, while WKU is only 5-13 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite. WMU has a balanced offense as mentioned above, led by RB LeVante Ballamy, who has 1,412 rushing yards and 23 TD's. I'm expecting the outright, but in the end I'll grab the points. 8* BLOWOUT on WMU. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -120 | 131 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of this game will win the NFC West. Forget that the Seahawks have "Beast Mode" as their RB now. Forget about what each team has done to this point, and please just look at these stats below, as they are what I'm basing my pick on entirely: Seahawks in primetime: 16-4-2 ATS L22 at home 14-4-1 ATS L19 divisional games 14-2 ATS L16 as an underdog Seahawks as a home underdog: 9-0 ATS L9Â Seahawks after an ATS loss: 9-1-1 ATS The pick: 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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12-29-19 | Cornell +20.5 v. Penn State | Top | 59-90 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-9 Cornell Big Red are going to slide under the radar here vs. the 10-2 Nittany Lions in my opinion. In their most recent 80-76 loss at Hartford, Cornell was led by Jimmy Boeheim with 26 points. Cornell though is on the brink though, as note that it's lost five games by four points or less and a sixth against reigning Patriot League champ Colgate in a game it led by double digits in the second half. The Lions have won ten in a row and they're perfect at home. But with the New Year's break on the horizon, before conference play starts with a game at home vs. Iowa, I do indeed feel this sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. The pick: Cornell is also 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Penn State is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a home win by ten points or more. Grab the points. 10* SHOCKER SPECIAL on Cornell. |
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12-28-19 | Oklahoma +13 v. LSU | Top | 28-63 | Loss | -110 | 480 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset, but with nothing to loe, I like Oklahoma to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Oklahoma is in its third playoff in a row and it's done it with three different QB's. This is a team which won't be intimidated in the "big moment." Jalen Hurts is a legit NFL prospect and I look for him to go down fighting. Ed Orgeron and QB Joe Burrow come into this game with an unblemished 13-0 record so far. In four of their last five games they've scored at least 46 points. But Hurts has the ability to keep this one close in my opinion. The pick: Oklahoma has been fantastic in this spot as wel lfor bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while LSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. Burrow has been amazing. The Tigers have a great defense as well. But the long lay off is going to cause some issues with chemistry in my opinion. I think the Sooners' overall experience in this big game pays dividends for the team here and helps in keeping this one much closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma. |
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12-28-19 | Iowa State v. Notre Dame -3.5 | 9-33 | Win | 100 | 453 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Iowa State was 7-5 and Notre Dame was 10-2. Iowa State lost a bunch of "close" games this year. QB Brock Purdy had 12 TD's and just two INT's over his final four games. The pick: Ian Book didn't have nearly as good a season this time around as last for the Irish, but I still give him the nod in this spot. I also believe that the Irish easily have the defense to hang with Iowa State's vaunted unit. Additionally note that Iowa State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while ND is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 opints range, including 3-1 ATS this season. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. 8* BLOWOUT on Notre Dame. |
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12-28-19 | Memphis +7.5 v. Penn State | 39-53 | Loss | -125 | 453 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright upset? Very possible! Memphis comes in with confidence and momentum after beating Cincinnati 29-24 in the AAC Championship Game. Memphis is led by QB Brady White, who had 3,560 passing yards with a 33:9 TD:INT. The Tigers average 39.3 PPG and they won't be lacking for motivation here after going 0-4 in their last four bowl games. The Nittany Lions are led by QB Sean Clifford, who has 2,561 yards passing and a 22:6 TD:INT. Penn State only averages 30.3 PPG. The pick: Of importance to note in my opinion is the fact that Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Penn State is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season. The Tigers have played three ranked opponents since November and they're 3-0. I think the long lay off benefits the offense of the underdog here. That said, grab the points. 8* BLOWOUT on Memphis. |
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12-27-19 | Suns -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors have won three straight games after upsetting the Rockets at home on X-Mas Day as double-digit underdogs, but I think they'll predictably return to mediocrity today vs. this hungry visiting side. Phoenix comes to town desperate to break a seven-game slide. The pick: Here is what Steve Kerr said after the X-Mas day win for the Warriors: "We're probably not going to play a bigger game than this all year," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "A national TV game against the Rockets. This game meant a lot to us." Can anyone say "letdown" spot? NOte as well that the Suns are already 4-1 ATS this year off a cover where it lost the game SU as a dog, while GS is only 2-3 ATS this season as a home dog of six points or less. I like the "hungry/desperate" team to find a way to get the job done tonight. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Phoenix Suns. |
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12-27-19 | USC +1.5 v. Iowa | 24-49 | Loss | -107 | 437 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: It's 8-4 USC vs. 9-3 Iowa. The Trojans are going to try and air this one out, while the Hawkeyes will try to slow it down and grind out a victory. USC averages 33.2 PPG and it allows 27.7. Iowa averages only 23.8 PPG, but it only allows 13.1. USC lost to heavy weights Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon this year and it's led by Kedon Slovis, who I think will be a difference maker today (28:9 TD:INT.) He benefits from throwing to one of the best WR's in the country in Michael Pittman Jr. The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley has a 14:4 TD:INT. The Hawkeyes are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite, while USC is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. I think the long time off to prepare benefits the USC defense and I like Slovis to push the pace from start to finish. That said, grab the points. 8* play on USC. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +6 v. Texas A&M | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 436 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: OKS is 7-4 and A&M is 7-5. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. The Cowboys will use two QB's today in Spencer Sanders and Dru Brown. OKS' defense leaves everything to be desired, but I expect this Mike Gundy led team to keep it close with its relentless attack through the air. The pick: Jimbo Fisher's second year at A&M has been a disappointment. Kellen Mond lacks weapons. The defense is the bright spot for the Aggies, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Cowboys "air raid" offensive style. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come down to the wire. 8* play on Oklahoma State. |
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12-27-19 | Michigan State v. Wake Forest +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -109 | 432 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: MSU became eligible after beating Rutgers and Maryland. Wake Forest ended it's regular season campaign by losing three of four, but it was competitive in each loss, including a 39-30 setback to the Orange in its finale. The Spartans are led by Brian Lewerke, who had nearly 600 yards passing over his final two games. But that was against some pretty weak competition that didn't have a whole month to plan for this game. The MSU run game is weak and I think its offense will struggle to keep pace down the stretch. The pick: The Deacons have a more balanced attack, led by a run game which averages 297.8 YPG. WF QB Jamie Newman is superior too in my opinion, he finished with a 23:10 TD:INT. Michigan State is also just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest and a terrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight after playing a conference game, while WF is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points. 8* play on Wake Forest. |
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12-27-19 | North Carolina -5 v. Temple | 55-13 | Win | 100 | 429 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: It's 6-6 UNC vs. 8-4 Temple. I like the team from the ACC. The Tar Heels played the much tougher schedule and are in a much tougher conference. That didn't work out well for Miami last night, but that was partly because of the fact that they through in a new QB just before the game. UNC pivot Sam Howell had 3,347 passing yards with 35 TD's and seven INT's. Overall the Tar Heels average 285 YPG through the air. The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo has a more pedestrian 21:12 TD:INT. The UNC run game is superior as well and I think this depth on offense will prove to be too much for Temple to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points. 8* play on UNC. |
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12-26-19 | Miami-FL -6.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -110 | 409 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bulldogs went 9-3 this season and for their above average performance, they get the 6-6 Hurricanes in the Independence Bowl on Thanksgiving Day. Louisiana Tech went just 1-2 over its last three games though and I think it'll have difficulty with this team from the Power 5 Conference. Yes Louisiana Tech beat UTSA 41-27 in its finale, but in the two losses previous it scored a total of 24 points. Overall the Bulldogs average 34 PPG and allow 23.7. The pick: The Hurricanes lost their final 27-17 to Duke. Five of their six losses though have been by seven points or less. Overall Miami averages 27.8 PPG and it allows just 20.8. Louisiana Tech has had considerably more sucess in the Bowl Season than the Hurricanes over the last ten years, but I think the Bulldog's get overwhelmed on the defensive end from this hungry 6-6 Miami Florida team. I'm laying the points. 10* BLOWOUT on Miami Florida. |
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12-25-19 | Georgia Tech -1.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 70-53 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yellow Jackets come in hungry here as they've lost four of their last five over the last two weeks. Overall the Yellow Jackets average 65.6 PPG and allow 67.8. The Warriors had their two-game win streak snapped by Washington last time out. Overall Hawaii averages 71.3 PPG, while coneding 72. The pick: Georgia Tech though is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 following a SU loss, while Hawaii is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 tournament games. Strengh of schedule is the issue here and GT has played a much more difficult one to this point. These early numbers are skewed. Expect a decisive victory from the Power 5 Conference member today and lay the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia Tech. |
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12-25-19 | Rockets -10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston comes into this game riding a four-game win streak and it's just a 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for the division lead. This latest win streak includes a come from behind victory over the Spurs, followed by victories over the Clippers, Suns and Kings. Golden State has inexplicably won two in a row itself, but I believe the injury depleted home side has a hard time keeping pace with Houston's scoring depth of James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the national stage (note that Harden is 5-2 on X-Mas Day games as well.)Â The pick: Additionally note that Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. clubs with losing records, while GS is only 11-29-1 ATS in its last 41 following a SU victory. D'Angelo Russell has been decent for GS this season, but I think his lack of scoring help dooms the home side tonight. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 10* BEATDOWN on the Houston Rockets. |
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12-23-19 | Packers +4 v. Vikings | Top | 23-10 | Win | 101 | 179 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are headed to the playoffs, but each is fighting for a better spot. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Green Bay beat Minnesota 21-16 at home and I do indeed feel that another outright victory isn't out of the question here either. Green Bay beat the Bears 21-13 last weekend and with a victory here it can wrap up the division crown. Look for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers to continue his brilliant season, so far he has 24 TD's and just two INT's. Also RB Aaron Jones had two TD's last weekend. The pick: The Vikes have won eight of their last ten, led by the great play of QB Kirk Cousins, who has 25 TD's and only five INT's. Also note, Minnesota is now already in the playoffs, having clinched after the Rams last outright to the 49ers yesterday. Finally note that Minnesota is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 MNF contests, while GB is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Green Bay Packers. |
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