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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State +2 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -115 | 106 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in off losses. Fresno State fell to Utah State and it's now 4-5, while 7-2 SDSU lost to Nevada. Last year the Bulldogs won this game by a score of 23-14. But Fresno State is running out of time and after back-to-back games in which its lost in the final seconds by FG, I think the Bulldogs finally get the job done here. Overall Fresno State averages 34.3 points behind QB Jore Renya, while allowing 32.4 PPG on the defensive side. The pick: SDSU only allows 14.4 PPG, but it only averages 20.8. Aztecs' QB Ryan Agnew has ten TD's and four INT's. The Aztecs are a run oriented offense, but I think they'll have a hard time keeping up with their high-flying opponent today. Additionally note that Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or ore in its previous outing, while SDSU is 0-3 ATS in its last three after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. Look for the Bulldogs' high-powered offense to be the difference tonight. 10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Fresno State. |
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11-15-19 | CS-Northridge +21.5 v. Auburn | Top | 70-116 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly on paper CS Northridge is over-matched here. But I think the 0-3 Matadors can comfortably sneak in through the back door here vs. the 3-0 Auburn Tigers. CSUN's defense has been terrible, but it's offense has been decent. Last time out it lost 94-82 to Pepperdine. Auburn is the 22nd ranked team in the country, but it's yet to face anyone from a major conference yet. The pick: Yes the Matadors have lost both road games this year, but note that they're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 away from friendly confines. Auburn may be 3-0, but it had to hold on for dear life in its 70-69 win over South Alabama last time out. Note as well that CSUN is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a home loss by ten or more points, while Auburn is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records. I like the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on CS Northridge. |
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11-14-19 | Long Beach State +21.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: LBSU comes in battle tested already. This is its third straight road game to open the year and fourth game in nine days. If this were the end of the season then I'd be worried about fatigue, but I believe at the start of the year all of this recent action can only help the 49ers' chemistry in this one vs. No. 18 Saint Mary's. LBSU was destroyed 86-58 at Stanford, but I think it'll play with a lot more confidence here. The pick: The Gaels beat Wisconsin to open the year, but then suffered a terrible loss to Winthrop with a buzzer-beater. I think the Gaels come in shell shocked from that loss and it's the foot in the door that the 49ers can use to keep this one competitive late. Note as well that the Gaels are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss, while LBSU is 8-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. I'm grabbing the all these points. 10* SHOCKER BLOWOUT on LBSU. |
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11-14-19 | Mavs v. Knicks +7 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks beat the Mavericks 106-102 in Dallas last week and I think they have a legitimate shot at doing it again tonight. Dallas plays the final game of a three-game trip and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent here, despite having just lost to it. Kristaps Porzingis returns to The Big Apple, which once again will be added incentive for the home side. In that victory the Knicks had five players score in double figures and they shot 50 percent from range. The pick: Both teams come in off losses, with New York losing at Chicago, and Dallas falling at Boston. Note though that the Mavericks are already only 1-4 ATS this season in non-conference games and a poor 10-17 ATS in their last 27 in revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. I don't think the "revenge" angle works here at all. New York is the "hungrier" team and I expect it to put up a fight at home. Grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks. |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina +5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -115 | 84 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: UNC is 4-5 and it comes out of its bye week in need of a victory to keep its bowl aspirations alive. The Panthers became bowl eligible last time out by holding on for a 20-12 win over Georgia Tech last time out and I think a predictable mental letdown is imminent here. Last year the Tar Heels won a 38-35 shootout at home in this game and I expect a similarily hard-fought and ultimately competitive battle here as well. UNC has to be feeling confident as well with QB Sam Howell, who has 26 TD passes and only five INT's. So far UNC is averaging 27.6 PPG and conceding 27.1. The pick: The Panthers aren't the greatest on offense, but htey make up for it on the defensive side by conceding only 20.1 PPG. I'll point out though that UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 37 points or more in its last game, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite. The conditions are right for a SU upset, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina. |
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11-13-19 | CS-Fullerton +1 v. Wyoming | 60-53 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Wyoming beat lowly Idaho State in its opener, before then falling 66-32 at South Carolina. CSU Fullerton comes in off back-to-back losses, to open the year, albeit over much stiffer competition in BYU and Stanford. Wyoming was just 8-24 last year and its line-up features seven sophomores and four freshman. Cal State won 16 games last year and it returns three starters from that squad. The pick: Cal State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after suffering back-to-back defeats of more than 15 points, while Wyoming is only 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a defeat of 30 or more points in its previous game. I think the Titans' depth and experience delivers them to their first victory of the season. 9* SUPER-SHOCKER on Cal State Fullerton. |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois +3 v. Toledo | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: NIU is 3-6 overall and 2-3 in MAC play. It sits one game behind Toledo. The Rockets have won two in a row and they're now bowl eligible because of it. The Huskies' offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who has 741 rushing yards and seven TD's. The Rockets are allowing almost 200 yards per game on the ground. The pick: Toldeo got a break out game from Shakif Seymour, as he'd explode for 175 yards and two TD's in the win over the Golden Flashes. I don't foresee Seymour duplicating that feat here. NIU is also 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Toledo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off a home win vs. a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I like NIU's run game to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois. |
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11-13-19 | Tennessee-Martin v. Western Illinois -1.5 | Top | 98-91 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Illinois Leathernecks are 0-2. This is the final game of their opening home-stand and I think they're going to lay everything on the line here to secure their first victory of the year vs. the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks, who come in off a 92-75 loss to East Tennessee State on Saturday. UT Martin has three double-digit scorers, led by Quinton Dove. The pick: But the Leathernecks also have plenty of talent, including Zion Young, who had 24 points in his team's heart-breaking 77-75 loss to Stetson. I think it's interesting to note as well the Western Illinois is the No. 1 free-throw shooting team in the nation at 93.3 percent thus far. I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Western Illinois. |
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11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia fought tooth and nail last night and barely held on for 98-97 win over the Cavaliers at home and now it has to hit the road to face a Magic team desperate for a spark and hungry to take advantage of a team which could be without the services of scorer Ben Simmons in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Regardless of whether or not Simmons plays, I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for Orlando. The pick: The Magic were a dark horse for many in the East after last year's great campaign, but at 3-7, clearly Orlando has some work to do. While Orlando has clearly been a disappointment, so to has Philadelphia's performance to this point. The East is wide open and I'm not going to over-react at this point to any of the team's play at this moment. I will however point out that Philly is a poor 2-7 ATS in its last nine after winning a close game by three or less points and playing the second game of a back-to-back, while the Magic are 52-40 ATS in their last 92 after a loss (including 3-2 ATS this season.) I'm grabbing the points, but expecting an outright. 10* DEMOLITION on the Orlando Magic. |
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11-12-19 | Long Beach State +14 v. Stanford | 58-86 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: LBSU almost upset UCLA in its opener and then it rolled to a double digit win over San Diego in its second game. Overall the 49ers have not given up more than 69 points this year and they've averaged 74 thus far. LBSU plays with revenge here as well after falling 93-86 in this game last season. The pick: Stanford's rosey 2-0 start has to be taken with a grain of salt as well, as its victories have come over Montanta and Cal State Fullerton. There's no doubt that the Cardinal are tough at home and I'm not suggesting at all that you should expect an outright upset. That said, note that LBSU is 8-0 ATS in its last eight on the road. The 49ers play with revenge and I expect this "under the radar" team to give Stanford everything it can handle. Grab the points. 9* COACH'S CORNER on LBSU. |
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11-12-19 | Pistons v. Heat -7.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit has lost two in a row. The Pistons finally got Blake Griffin back, but they still lost 120-114 to the visiting Wolves last night. Clearly the Pistons are going to get better now that Griffin is back in the line-up, but it's not going to be an instantaneous transformation and playing here on the second game of the back to back isn't going to help either. The Heat enter off a road loss to the Lakers, after laying a beatdown on the Suns in Phoenix. The pick: The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the league right now, allowing just 105.4 PPG. The Pistons are allowing 113.3 and I expect that number to go up here in this difficult road venue. Additionally note that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a SU loss, while the Pistons are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. I'm banking on a double-digit rocking-chair victory. Lay the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Miami Heat. |
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11-12-19 | Chattanooga v. Troy State -3 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Troy is 0-1 and it's looking to take out its frustrations here in the second game of a short two-game home stand. The Trojans enter off a 76-75 loss to UAB, a game in which they trailed by 12 points late. KJ Simon set a new career-high, leading all scorers with 21 points on 9-12 shooting. The pick: The Chattanooga Mocs are 1-1, losing 79-68 at EKU, before then holding on for a 59-57 win over Tennessee State at home in their second. Transfer Matt Ryan led the way scoring 11 points on 4-14 shooting. Troy is the deeper and more experienced team and I think it lays everything on the line here to secure the victory in front of what should be a record-setting crowd to watch. Additionally note that the Mocs are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest, while the Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the home side in this one. 10* DESTRUCTION on Troy. |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan v. Ohio +1 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -114 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos are 6-4 on the year after winning two straight. They're now bowl eligible after holding on for a 35-31 win at Ball State last weekend. Ohio though is just 4-5 on the year (3-2 in Conference action) and it'll be risking life and limb here to try and secure a victory with time now running out to do so. Last year the Bobcats broke a four game slide in this series with a convincing 59-14 win over the Broncos. Overall WMU averages 36 PPG and it allows 26. The pick: Ohio averages 29 PPG and it allows 29 PPG. The Bobcats lost to division leader Miami Ohio last time out, but I think they'll take care of business here at home vs. this now contented WMU side. Note as well that WMU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning record. I'm banking on the desperate home side to step up here and deliver the goods. 10* DESTRUCTION on Ohio. |
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11-12-19 | Pacific +7 v. Hawaii | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning the opener of this tournament, Hawaii was upset at home last night 81-75 by South Dakota. Pacific lost to South Dakota in its opening game of this tournament by a score of 72-62, but it then bounced back in fine fashion with a 76-54 win over FAMU. These teams haven't met since 2013, but I think they're very evenly matched after what I've seen in the early going. The pick: Additionally note that Pacific is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 vs. teams with winning records, while Hawaii is only 5-12 ATS in its last 17 non-conference contests. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific. |
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11-11-19 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs come in off a poor effort at home to the red hot Celtics and they'll be eager to erase that performance by handling the Grizzlies in front of the home town crowd. The Grizzlies are looking terrible though, getting shut down recently in Orlando in a poor offensive display, before then coming back home and allowing 138 points to the Mavericks in a loss. Overall the Grizzlies average 108.7 PPG and they allow 120.1. The pick: The Spurs come in off the 135-115 loss to Boston, but they average 112.6 PPG and allow 112.7. San Antonio is also 7-1 ATS in its last eight after a double-digit home loss, while Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after an ATS loss. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish, so lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 151 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys are off a 37-18 Monday night win over the Giants. Dallas' QB Dak Prescott threw for three TD's. But now the Cowboys face the red hot Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, who had 71 yards in his team's close 26-23 loss to Kansas City. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins had 222 passing yards and three TD's in a losing cause. Overall the Vikes are No. 1 in stopping the run and they've only allowed two rushing TD's all season. The pick: Dallas has won two in a row, but with back-to-back tough road games in Detroit and New England upcoming, clearly this is a tough stretch for the home side. Note that Dallas WR Amari Cooper didn't practice on Thursday and he's a game time decision here. NOte as well that Minnesota is a sharp 8-2 ATS in its last ten following a SU loss (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Dallas is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive victories. I think Minnesota's defense is not getting enough credit here. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Vikings. |
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11-10-19 | Flyers v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia comes in off a hard-fought and high-scorign 4-3 win in Toronto just last night and I think it'll predictably struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Philadelphia has looked a lot better of late after a terrible start to the 2019/20 campaign, but they're definitely in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: And that's because Boston enters having lost two in a row, falling 5-4 in Montreal on Tuesday, before then suffering an upset loss to the Wings. The Bruins come in focussed and I believe they'll lay the hammer down here from start to finish. Note as well that the Flyers are 0-5 on the second night of their last five in the second game of the back-to-back, while Boston is 5-0 in its last five at home. Expect a lop-sided destruction in this one and lay the 1.5 goals for the small plus money return. 10* PUCK-LINE PLAY-BOOK on the Boston Bruins. |
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11-09-19 | Rockets v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 117-94 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston comes in off a win vs. the Warriors, but I think its inconsistencies on the road comes back to haunt it again here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago has been "hit or miss" early, but it comes in off a big road win in Atlanta and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here. Besides James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Rockets get pretty thin after that. The pick: Houston's defense is suspect as well after allowing 112 points to an undermanned Warriors squad last time out. Chicago has plenty of young talent and I'm not reading too much into its early poor numbers. Now that the team has had a few games to get acclimated, I think the Bulls' last victory over the Hawks is going to be more indicative of they play moving forward. Additionally note that the Rockets are a poor 11-12 ATS in their last 23 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 16-10 ATS in its last 26 as a home dog in the same points range. In a game which I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Chicago Bulls. |
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11-09-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Pepperdine | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal Irvine won its first game on the road, but I think it'll have its hands full vs. Pepperdine, which lost by 16 in its opener to Cal. Irvine barely held on for a 76-73 win over San Diego. The pick: The Waves were only down two at half to the Golden Bears, but they weren't able to hold it together in the second half. The Waves finished 16-18 last year, so they'll be desperate for a victory here as they try to get the 2019/20 campaign out to a better start. Note though that the Waves were 9-5 at home last year and they've covered in 13 of their last 19 in friendly confines. I'm banking on the hungry Waves getting back on track here. 10* BLOWOUT on Pepperdine. |
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11-09-19 | Clemson v. NC State +31 | 55-10 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but NC State can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite defeat being inevitable here. The Wolfpack are 4-4 and while this game is a "write off" as far as conceivably pulling off a SU victory, I do think it'll put up more than enough of a fight to easily get the job done with the ample points they've been afforded in this matchup. Clemson most recently annihilated the Wofford Terriers 59-14. The pick: But the Wolfpack come in hungry to atone for a 44-10 loss to Wake Forest in their most recent action. Both of NC State's wins over its last five games have come at home. The Wolfpack are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 after posting less than 275 total yards in their past contest. Expect this one to be much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 8* play on NC State. |
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11-09-19 | Notre Dame v. Duke +6.5 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -105 | 127 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Notre Dame just became eligible after its 21-20 win over Virginia Tech last weekend and I expect a bit of a letdown here. Duke is 4-4 and it's lost three of its last four. Clearly the Blue Devils will be risking life and limb here to pull off the upset with just a handful of games left. These are in fact two evenly matched sides, so in a contest which I think'll be decided late, I'm going to grab the handful of points. Note that the Irish have lost two of three on the road already this year and their one win over Louisville was hardly impressive. The pick: Duke returns home after two straight on the road and it's also had its bye week off to prepare for this one. From a situational stand point, this one sets up beautifully for the home side. Additionally note that the Irish are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine following their bye week. Duke destroyed the Hokies by 35 earlier in the year, so the outright upset is in fact possible here as well. That said, I'm grabbing the points in the end. 10* play on Duke. |
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11-09-19 | Blackhawks +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pens come in off a 4-3 win over the Islanders, but I think they get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today. The Blackhawks are just 5-10 this year, but they've won two of their past three and I think their momentum builds again here. Most recently Chicago destroyed the Canucks 5-2. Also note that Chicago goaltender Robin Lehner is a solid 3-3-2 with a 2.33 GAA this year. The pick: The Pens have Matt Murray in net and for the most part he's been solid, but he did allow three goals on 23 shots to New York before winning in OT. But with two whole nights off before a game at New York and then New Jersey, I do definitely think this sets up as a classic "trap/letdown/look-ahead" spot for Pittsburgh. I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 10* PUCK-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Chicago Blackhawks. |
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11-09-19 | Connecticut +35 v. Cincinnati | 3-48 | Loss | -100 | 123 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: UConn is going to lose this game badly, but I think it'll put up enough of a fight vs. a Bearcats team that's won six in a row and is already eligible. The Huskies come in off a 56-10 loss to Navy, but I don't think the home side will try to the score of this one up. QB Jack Zergiotis went 16 for 34, for 205 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's. The pick: Cincinnati is rolling, but it has to be somewhat concerned after last week's 46-43 home win over ECU. Quarterback Desmond Ridder went 12 for 24, for 161 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's. Additionally note that the Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a loss by 35 points or more, while Cincinnati is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival. After last week's "close call," I'm expecting the Bearcats to play a bit more conservatively in this game which they know they can control from the moment it starts. Grab the points. 8* play on Connnecticut. |
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11-09-19 | Louisville v. Miami-FL -5 | 27-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: Louisville is 5-3 and Miami is 5-4. It's a big game, as the winner becomes bowl eligible. And as such, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Louisville has been off since October 26th when it beat UVA 28-21. Will rest lead to rust here? The Cardinals play three of their next four on the road and I think this one sets up as a classic "trap/letdown" spot. The Cards only had 360 total yards in that victory, but the defense came up big by forcing two turnovers. In all the Cardinals average 32.8 PPG and allow 31.9. The pick: Miami has won two straight, most recently a 27-10 victory over FSU last weekend. QB Jarren Williams now has ten TD's and three INT's on the year. The Hurricanes defense was particularly sharp though, posting a season-high nine sacks. The Hurricanes average 26.8 PPG and they allow only 18.6. Additionally note that Louisville is still just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of seven points or less. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 8* play on Miami Florida. |
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11-09-19 | Illinois +13 v. Michigan State | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Illinois is 5-4 and MSU is 4-4. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue here. Illinois has won three straight and Michigan State has dropped three in a row. Overall the Fighting Illini look solid offensively, averaging 30 PPG, behind 169 rushing yards per contest, good enough for 69th in the country. The pick: The Spartans on the other hand have scored just 17 points combined over their straight losses. Most recently MSU fell 28-7 to Penn State. Additionally note that Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss, while the Illini are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after playing at home. No outright, but expect this one to come right down to the wire. Grab the points. 8* play on Illinois. |
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11-09-19 | Wake Forest v. Virginia Tech +3 | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: At 7-1, Wake Forest is eligible and content. At 5-3, the Hokies need just one more win to become bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons enter off a 44-10 win over NC State and I think they finally take the foot off the gas here. Overall Wake averages 38 PPG. The pick: Virginia Tech's three game win streak came to an end in its 21-20 loss to Notre Dame last weekend. The Demon Deacons have not done well in this spot for bettors though, going a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road favorite and a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home win by 17 points or more. Conversely, this is a spot in which VT has excelled in by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 8* play on Virginia Tech. |
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11-09-19 | Florida State v. Boston College -1.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Florida State is 4-5 and BC is 5-4. The Eagles can reach eligibility with a victory today and I expect the home side to deliver the goods. FSU made a coaching change mid week after its loss to Miami last weekend, while the Eagles come in off a massive win over Syracuse. How will FSU respond after firing Willie Taggart? No one knows for sure, but Odell Haggins, the former assistant now has his hands full. Last week the FSU secondary was crushed for 313 yards for a Hurricanes pass attack which is pretty lacklustre. The Seminoles also posted only 203 yards of offense themselves. The pick: BC smashed the Orange 58-27 last weekend, running the ball for 496 yards. AJ Dillon had three TDs on 242 rushing yards off 35 carries, while QB Dennis Grosel had 195 passing yards and three TD's. Note as well that FSU is a terrible 6-15 ATS in its last 21 vs. conference opponents and only 2-9 ATS In its last 11 road games, while BC is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference. This one has home side blowout written all over it. 8* play on Boston College. |
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11-08-19 | Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 113 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington has was seven straight in this series, including a decisive 42-23 win last year. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to continue here as well. The Huskies are 5-4 and they're desperate for a win here after falling 33-28 at home to Utah last weekend. The Beavers are 4-4 and they come in off an upset 56-38 win over on the road over Arizona. In fact note that Washington has lost back-to-back games, but over some pretty stiff competition in No. 12 Oregon and No. 9 Utah. The pick: Oregon State allows 254 passing yards per game and Huskies' QB Jacob Eason has 2,297 passing yards with 20 TD's to just five INT's. The Huskies allow 257 passing yards and Beavers' QB Jake Luton has 19 TD's to just one INT. However note that the Beavers are a sub-par 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, while the Huskies are interestingly 4-1 ATS in their last five after posting less than 100 rushing yards in their last outing. After losing two straight, expect Washington to lay everything on the line here and after winning two in a row, look for the Beavers to take a mental step backwards. Lay the points. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Washington. |
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11-08-19 | Knicks +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks are 1-7 and the Mavericks are 5-2. On paper, of course the Mavericks are the "better" team. However, as primarily a "situational" handicapper I think the desperate Knicks, who have lost four in a row, will give the over confident Mavericks everything they can handle tonight. One bright spot for New York in its last loss in Detroit was that it won the rebound battle 49-40. The pick: Facing former team-mate Kristaps Porzingis will only add motivation for the visitors as well. Dallas won 107-106 over the Magic on Wednesday, which was the first time all year that Orlando scored over 100 points. Note as well that New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Dallas is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I believe the home side goes up early, takes the foot off the gas and I expect the hungry/desperate visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Knicks. |
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11-08-19 | Colorado State +25 v. Duke | 55-89 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Rams can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Colorado State beat Denver 74-63 in its opener, while Duke got off to a win and cover over Kansas at Madison Square Garden in its opener. Colorado State is an experienced team though and I think it'll be that collective experience which helps it keep this one competitive. Note that the Rams have four returning starters from last years team and each scored in double figures in the opening win. The pick: Will the same intensity be there for the Blue Devils as what they put forth in the win over the Jayhawks? Doubtful in my opinion. Note as well that Duke is in fact just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Colorado State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a winning home record. Duke shot just 35.9 percent from the floor in the win over Kansas and I think this line-up of mainly freshman takes a small step back vs. this lowly non-conference opponent. Grab the points. 8* DESTRUCTION on Colorado State. |
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11-08-19 | North Carolina v. NC-Wilmington +19.5 | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0. UNC beat Notre Dame by 11 on Opening Night, managing to cover the spread by a single bucket. Cole Anthony had a massive game for the Tar Heels by dropping 34 points and grabbing 11 boards, but the Seahawks won't be going down without a fight today after they exploded in a 103-83 win over Johnson and Wales. Wilmington is an experienced team and I think that plays favorably for it here. The pick: Note as well that UNC is a sub-par 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Wilmington is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 as an underdog. Clearly I'm not calling for the outright, but I do absolutely believe the stage is set for a comfortable cover. Grab the points. 10* SUPER SHOCKER on NC Wilmington. |
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11-07-19 | Heat +2 v. Suns | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami enters off a loss to a desperate Nuggets team, but I think its depth and experience will help it pull off the minor upset here vs. the surprising Suns. Phoenix has won three straight and it just handed the 76ers their first loss of the year. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? The pick: The Suns have been getting massive production from Devin Booker, but behind him Phoenix is actually pretty thin (Aron Baynes and Kelly Oubre Jr?!). Despite falling to Denver, note as well that Miami is still 52-33 ATS in it last 85 on the road and already 2-0 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while Phoenix is a poor 14-18 ATS in its last 32 when playing on two days rest. I'm grabbing the points, but obviously expecting an outright upset. 10* COAST-TO-COAST ULTIMATE ATS BLOWOUT is on the Miami Heat. |
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11-07-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Coastal Carolina +13.5 | Top | 48-7 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisiana Lafayette has won six in a row and it's now bowl eligible after laying the hammer down on Texas State last week. But on the short week here and facing a 4-4 Coastal Carolina side, I think the Ragin Cajuns finally have a bit of a mental letdown in this spot. Coastal Carolina is coming off a much needed win over Troy and I like the home side to build off that victory and give their visiting side everything it can handle. The pick: QB Bryce Carpenter has been hit or miss for the Chanticleers, but Coastal Carolina is still putting up decent offensive numbers. Louisiana Lafayette's offensive and defensive numbers are much better than its hosts, but this a situationally based selection, which I believe highly favors the home side. I think the Cajuns have a letdown after six straight wins and with their eligibility achieved last weekend. Coastal Carolina on the other hand still needs two more wins to become eligible. Additionally note that Louisiana Lafayette is 0-3 ATS in its last three after a cover as a double digit favorite, while Coastal Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final whistle. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina. |
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11-06-19 | Notre Dame +10.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: UNC was upset by Auburn in the Sweet 16 last year. The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but they have a top 10 recruiting class, led by point guard Cole Anthony. Mike Brey has been the head coach in Notre Dame for 19 years, but the Irish won just 14 games last year, the lowest win total of his tenure. Last year the Irish took a 36-33 halftime lead against UNC and eventually lost 75-69. With five seniors returning, I expect Notre Dame to put up a similarily hard-fought effort here. The pick: The Tar Heels lost their top five scorers, but also four of their five starters from a year ago. UNC is still picked to finish second in the ACC, but I think chemistry is going to be an issue early. Look for the Irish to take this one down to the wire and grab up the generous amount of points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on Notre Dame. |
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11-05-19 | Michigan State v. Kentucky +3 | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Spartans were 32-7 last year and they're ranked No. 1 in the country. Clearly the Wildcats won't be lacking for motivation after finishing 30-7. Michigan State has plenty of talent, desping losing Kenny Goings, Nick Ward and Matt McQuaid. The pick: Kentucky lost Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson and PJ Washington, but it picked several five-star recruits and it's expected to be even better this year. Note as well that MSU is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a neutral court favorite or pick, while Kentucky is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 neutral court contests. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these top teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 9* DESTRUCTION on Kentucky. |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver comes in off a win over Orlando and I think it keeps the momentum rolling here vs. the 5-1 Heat. While Miami has performed well at home, this is a big test with games at Phoenix and the Lakers up next. Miami blew the Rockets out of the water in their 129-100 home victory, but I think it takes a step back here in this difficult non-conference venue. The pick: The Nuggets have gone through some early growing pains to open the year, with losses to Dallas and New Orleans. Denver though battled tough against the Magic and there's no reason not to think it won't carry over that hunger here at home vs. this top East Coast team. Note that Miami is only 11-21 ATS in its last 32 after a win by ten points or more, while Denver is 24-16 ATS in its last 40 after playing two straight on the road. After their "ho hum" start and facing this red hot Heat side, I look for Nikola Jokic and company to lay the hammer down from start to finish here. Lay the points. 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Denver Nuggets. |
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11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan -7 | 31-35 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams comes off their respective bye weeks. Ball State is 4-4 and in dire need of a couple more victories. WMU is 5-4 and it definitely wants to punch its ticket to eligiblity here and now. Ball State most recently got killed by Ohio 34-21, while the Broncos smashed Bowling Green 49-10 in their most recent action. The Cardinals are led by QB Drew Pitt, who has 17 TD's and six INT's. Ball State though ranks tenth in the MAC with just 11 sacks all year. The pick: The Broncos still have a shot at winning their division, but with their final two games of the season on the road, this has become a "must win" contest for Western Michigan. The Broncos have two experienced seniors on offense in QB Jon Wassink and RB leVante Bellamy (Wassink leads the conference with 2,273 passing yards.) Also note that WMU's defense is tied for first int he conference with 29 sacks so far. In this crucial game, I look for the home side to take advantage. 8* DESTRUCTION on Western Michigan. |
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11-05-19 | Kent State v. Toledo -7.5 | 33-35 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: Toledo can become eligible with a victory today, while Kent State enters at 3-5. Both teams enter struggling, with Toledo having lost two of its last three, and Kent State having lost three of its last four. Kent State has faced some stiff competition this year and Dustin Crum has been decent under center for the Flashes. Toledo's strength on the defensive side is its pass defense though. The pick: Toledo enters off a 3-point OT win over EMU and I think that Eli Peters and company keep the foot on the gas in front of the home town crowd. Kent STate has struggled in this spot as well, going just 11-14 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog and only 1-3 ATS in its last four after a close lss by seven points or less to a conference rival. Conversely note that the Rockets have excelled in this position for bettors, going 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite. This one has "blowout" written all over it. 8* DESTRUCTION on Toledo. |
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11-05-19 | Kansas +1.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are playing at Madison Square Garden in New York City in this one. The last time these teams met was in the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and the Jayhawks won 85-81. Kansas though is on a mission here after failing to win the Big 12 for the first time since 2004, finishing with a 26-10 record last year. Kansas was hurt last season by the loss of Udoka Azubuike, who hurt his wrist early on and would have gone to the NBA, but he's back this season instead to work on his "stock" for the upcoming draft. The pick: The Blue Devils went 32-6 last year, but losing Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett isn't going to be the easiest transition in my opinion. Duke is loaded with talent (Tre Jones), but it also has to replace leadership type players like Cam Reddish (he had 13.5 PPG last year.) Additionally note that Duke is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games, while Kansas is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. I think the talent and experience that the Jayhawks bring back turn out to be the difference maker on Opening night. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Kansas. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Giants | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 61 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas smashed New York 35-17 in Week 1 when Eli Manning was under center. The Cowboys have been hit or miss this year, but they're coming off an impressive 37-10 win over Philadelphia in Week 7, a team which was just as hungry as desperate as they were. Dallas is coming off a Week 8 bye as well, so it's been planning and preparing for this crucial contest for a while now. New York though isn't sure what's going on, most recently losing 31-26 on the road to the Lions. At 2-6, the Giants' season is already over and they can now start preparing and planning for next year. The pick: New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Breaking down individual player matchups or what each team's defensive and offensive numbers are is not important tonight. The situational factors combined with these strong trends make Dallas the savvy call in my professional opinion. Lay the points. 10* BLOOD BATH on the Dallas Cowboys. |
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11-04-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wolves | 134-106 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bucks are 4-2 and they have double-digit wins over the Magic and Raptors already. Minnesota is 4-1 and while it won its first game without superstar Karl-Anthony Towns in the line-up in their last game after he was suspended for three games for fighting, I have a hard time seeing the home side duplicating that feat vs. this incredibly deep Bucks side. The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with a winning SU record, while MIlwaukee is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the Western Conference. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive rout. 8* play on the Bucks. |
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11-04-19 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +6.5 | 107-100 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: Memphis won't be rolling over here after losing two straight. Yes Houston has the better line-up, but it's playing the final game of a tough trip and it's off a terrible beatdown loss in Miami just last night. Beyond James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Houston gets thin pretty quickly. The pick: Memphis has lost two road games by an average of 24 points, while going 1-2 at home with an average margin of loss being at six. Houston is terrible defensively. It gave up 158 points to the Wizards in its first road game and then allowed 49% shooting to the Nets the following night. Note that Westbrook is OUT for this one as well. And finally note that the Rockets are 0-4 ATS already this year vs. teams with losing records (and 30-40 ATS the last two seasons), while Memphis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the generous points. 10* play on the Grizzlies. |
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11-03-19 | Lions +2 v. Raiders | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: What do you base your picks on? For me, I like to remain flexible and don't follow any one single methodology. The Raiders have been arguably the biggest "surprise" team in the NFL this year, a lot more competititve than what most thought. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a "trap/letdown" for the home side. And that's because the Raiders haven't actually played a "home" game in the last five weeks (the only time in the last five weeks that Oakland was the "home" side was its game in London three weeks ago.) Now the players return home to their own beds and their families finally and I think that it's going to have a detrimental effect to their play on the field today. The pick: Oakland has lost two straight as well. The Lions though come off a crucial 31-26 win over the Giants last weekend and they'll be laying everything on the line here as they try to keep pace with the Packers. Note as well that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records, while Oakland is a terrible 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. A great situational play on the Lions this weekend. 10* GAME OF MONTH on the Detroit Lions. |
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles -4.5 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Eagles come in off an impressive 31-13 win at Buffalo last weekend and I believe they carry that momentum over here. The Bears are trending in the opposite directoin after last week's 17-16 loss to the Chargers, their third straight.  The pick: The Bears have been solid overall defensively, but they're ranked No. 27 on the offensive side. I believe the Bears' defense suffers a letdown here after three weeks of disappointment. The Eagles look rejuvenated after last week's performance and note that they're 8-2 ATS in their last ten vs. teams with losing records. Conversely note that the Bears are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off an upset loss as a favorite. There's no way the Eagles "look past" their opponent today, as this is a "must win" for the home side. Look for the Eagles to deliver the knock out blow to the Bears' playoff hopes today. 8* pick on the Philadelphia Eagles. |
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11-03-19 | Colts +1.5 v. Steelers | 24-26 | Loss | -114 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Pittsburgh's won two straight over suspect competition, but I think it'll struggle here vs. the Colts defense. Indianapolis enters having won three straight, and I also believe that Pittsburgh's suspect defense will struggle in slowing down Jacoby Brissett's steady attack. Overall the Colts average 22.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. The pick: The Steelers average 21 PPG and they allow 20.6. Much of the Steelers success has come with RB James Conner shouldering the load, but he's questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about his health? Additionally note that the Colts are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after one or more straight losses against the spread (including 2-0 ATS this season), while the Steelers are a poor 8-11 ATS in their last 19 at home and a terrible 0-3 ATS in their last three after playing on Monday Night Football. Grab the points. 8* pick on the Indianapolis Colts. |
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11-02-19 | 76ers v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 129-128 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland returns home after a successful 3-1 season opening road trip. The Blazers only loss came to the Spurs in the second game of a back-to-back situation. The Blazers are getting dominant play from Damian Lillard, who is averaging 29.2 PPG, while CJ McCollum is averaging 21. Note that the Blazers are 8-1 SU in their last nine at the Moda Center. The 76ers come to town without their top player in Joel Embiid as well, who is serving a suspension due to a fight he was involved in. The pick: Josef Nurcic is going to be able to operate vs. Philadelphia in the paint. Philly has plenty of talent and is a deep team as well, but the late West Coast game, combined with the loss of Embiid will prove to be just too much here to overcome in my opinion. Note as well that Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 100 or more points in its previous outing, while Philly is only 40-45 ATS in its last 85 after scoring 115 points or more. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trailblazers. |
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11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 105 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a win here. UVA is 5-3 and UNC is 4-4. The Cavs enter off a 28-21 loss to Louisville. Despite the hiccup, UVA still averages 30 PPG, while allowing only 20.8. QB Bryrce Perkins had 233 yards and a TD last week, while RB Wayn Taulapapa had 54 rushing yards and two TD's. The pick: UNC lost 43-41 to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and then bounced back with a 20-17 victory over Duke last weekend. UNC posted 432 total yards of offense, including 205 on the ground, led by Javonte Williams with 111 rushing yards. The Tar Heels average 27.5 PPG and they allow 25.8. UVA though is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a road loss, while UNC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. I think the Tar Heels struggle vs. this tough UVA defense. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end. 10* play on UVA. |
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11-02-19 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +23.5 | 46-43 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bears are 6-1 and now eligible and while I'm not calling for an outright win here, I do think that the 3-5 ECU Pirates won't go down without a fight this evening. The Pirates also play with the added incentive of "revenge" after they were humbled 56-6 to Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats were last in action when they posted the 24-13 win over Tulsa to become eligible. So will rest lead to rust? I don't think it's going to help the Bearcats here. The pick: Yes ECU is 0-4 in confernece play, but it's faced some heavyweights early in UCF and Navy. The Bearcats average 28 PPG and they allow 20, while the Pirates average 21 PPG, while allowing 28.5. However note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road, wihle the home team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series. Expect the hungry revenge minded home side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. 8* play on ECU. |
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11-02-19 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -22 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: With a victory today UL Lafayette will move from 5-2 to 6-2 and therefore become eligible to play in a bowl game. Texas State is 2-5 and while it would love to draw motivation of playing "spoiler," I just don't see that happening today. With App State's outright loss last night, UL Lafayette will be extra motivated to run the table now as it looks to meet up with the Mountaineers in a revenge scenario in the championship game. The pick: The Bobcats are averaging only 18.1 PPG and QB Gresch Hensen will once again be sidelined with concussion after missing last week's loss to Arkansas State. The Cajuns have plenty of motivating factors working in their favor here, but also note that they're 4-1 ATS in their last five coference games and 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Texas State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four conference contests. In my opinion, this one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points. 8* play on Louisiana Lafayette. |
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11-02-19 | Pittsburgh -7 v. Georgia Tech | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 102 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like 5-3 Pittsburgh to come in and deliver the goods with its sixth win of the year vs. 2-5 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come in off their bye week, while Pittsburgh enters off a blowout loss to Miami. Note though that the Panthers are 3-0 ATS on the road this year and they're 2-1 ATS at Boyd Dodd Stadium since 2012. Pittsburgh is ranked 43rd in the country in pass defense, but it won't have to worry too much vs. the Yellow Jackets triple option attack. The pick: Georgia Tech allows 220 yards on the ground this week, so Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett can take advantage of what the defense gives him this week and get back to some play action as the game wears on. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm banking on the Panthers pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and their elusive sixth victory. 8* play on Pittsburgh. |
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11-02-19 | Liberty -21 v. UMass | 63-21 | Win | 100 | 98 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: Liberty is 5-3 and UMass is 1-7. The Minutemen were just crushed by lowly UConn last time out and while they'd love to play "spoiler" to the Flames here, who need just one more win to become eligible, I just don't see it happening. Liberty comes in off a humbling 44-34 loss to Rutgers as a favorite last time out and it'll not be taking anything for granted after that embarrassing performance. The Flames have to contain UMass RB Bilal Ally, but beyond him the Minutemen are thin. The pick: On the flip side, Flames' QB Stephen Calvert will have no issues moving the ball vs. this porous UMass secondary (note that Calvert has 2,164 passing yards, with 16 TD's and only three INT's.) UMass is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Liberty is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 200 yards or more in its previous game. I like Liberty to come in focussed and to dominate in all three phases. Lay the points. 8* play on Liberty. |
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11-02-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Central Florida | 29-44 | Win | 100 | 98 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: UCF is 6-2 and eligible for a bowl, but 3-5 Houston has its work cut out for it here as it lays everything on the line over the last month to get the job done. The Cougars looked good though against No. 16 SMU last week, despite eventually falling 34-31. Houston averages 30.9 PPG, but it allows 31.1. QB Clayton Tune is finally starting to look better though after having to fill in for injured starter D'Eriq King. The pick: UCF comes in off a 62-21 blowout win over Temple and I think it comes in a tiny bit complacent here vs. its lowly opponent. The Knights average 46.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Clearly on paper QB Dillon Gabriel and the UCF have a signficant advantage, but note that the Knights are a terrible 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 21.5 points or more. Conversely, note that the Cougars are a solid 4-2 ATS already this season as a dog and 3-0 ATS in their last three off a close loss by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. No outright, but grab the points and expect a competitive battle. 8* play on Houston. |
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11-01-19 | Pistons v. Bulls -3 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Detroit has played better than expected without star Blake Griffin in the line-up as it come sin at 2-3. The Pistons though looked poor in their most recent 125-113 road loss in Toronto. The Bulls though were expected to take a step forward this season, but so far their young talent has produced just a 1-4 record, including having lost three straight. The pick: Detroit is now also dealing with injuries to Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose. Additionaly note that Detroit is a terrible 12-28 ATS in their last 40 after failing to cover in three of its last four ATS, while Chicago is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after faling to cover the spread in three or more straight games. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points. 8* play on the Chicago Bulls. |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut +27 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy just became eligible after its 41-38 win over Tulane last weekend. UConn earned its first victory of the year in last week's 56-35 win over UMass. Malcom Perry and the Midshipmen are back in the bowls this season and after punching that crucial/important win, I believe that Navy does in fact come out a bit flat in this one. The Midshipmen average 37.9 PPG and they allow 19.7. The pick: UConn only averages 21.2 PPG, while allowing 37.8, but last week it posted 539 total yards of offense. Additionally note that Navy is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home dog in the 21 1/2 to 28 points range. I'm banking on a closer than expected battle here, grab the points. 10* TRAIN-WRECK on Connecticut. |
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11-01-19 | Rockets v. Nets +3.5 | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The desperate Nets are poised to win this game outright in my opinion, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these teams has it hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. Houston comes in off a one point OT win in the Nation's capital vs. a terrible Wizards tam. Yes Houston has two fantastic players in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but after that they get pretty thin. The pick: And in a "situation" like this where they just finished a marathon OT contest and now face a desperate Nets team that will be risking life and limb after starting the season 1-3, there's no question that this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side. Additionally note that Houston is a terrible 5-12 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games, while the Nets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games. This one has upset written all over it. 10* play on the Brooklyn Nets. |
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10-31-19 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many different things. This one is primarily based around scheduling. Montreal comes in off a highly satisfying 4-1 victory in Arizona just last night and I think it's going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Las Vegas most recently hammered the Ducks 5-2 and I expect a similar lop-sided blowout here as well. Also note the visitors will turn to back-up goalkeeper Keith Kincaid in this one and he's 0-1-1 with a 4.53 GAA this year. The pick: The home side counters with Mark Andre Fleurty, who is 8-3-0 on the year with a 2.36 GAA. Note as well that LV is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite of -200 or higher, while Montreal is a poor 0-5 in its last five when playing on back-to-back. Lay the 1.5 goals for the plus money return and expect a decisive home victory. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Las Vegas Golden Knights. ts. |
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10-31-19 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +4 | Top | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: What do you base your picks on? I base my selections on many different things. This particular play is based upon the fact the Pelicans are so far winless this year and they're going to be playing their hearts out to get off the schneid. They're still without Zion Williamson and yes admittedly, the Nuggets are a much better and deeper team. But I believe that the visitors come in flat here after their outright 109-106 loss at home to the Mavericks. The pick: The Pelicans have faced stiff competition to open the year, but note that they're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 off an upset loss as a home favorite, while Nuggets are just 11-17 ATS in their last 28 off an upset loss as a favorite. In a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on the New Orleans Pelicans. |
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10-31-19 | 49ers -8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line in this one, but regardless, I like San Francisco to come in focussed on the task at hand and to once again run up the score quickly in this one as it then gets ready to play Seattle the following week. Clearly this is a big game for Arizona, as it sits at 3-4 and another loss will essentially take it out of the running for a playoff spot with both Seattle and San Francisco in its division. But San Francisco's depth on the defensive side of the ball and it's strong run game is going to prove to be too much for Cards' rookie QB Kyler Murray today. The pick: Arizona enters off a tough road loss to the Saints and I don't think the home side has gotten over that setback. It's interesting to note as well that San Fran is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests, while Arizona is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three following a two game road trip. No upsets this week, lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco 49ers. |
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10-31-19 | Georgia Southern +17 v. Appalachian State | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia Southern won't be going down without a fight vs. No. 20 Appalachian State. The Eagles enter off a 41-7 win over New Mexico State, while the 7-0 Mountaineers defeated South Alabama 30-3 last weekend. Georgia Southern's triple option is going to be something a bit different for App State today though. The Mountaineers average 140 rushing yards per game and the Eagles average 259 rushing yards per game. The pick: Georiga SOuthern's defense is under-rated as well in my opinion, allowing only 209 passing yards per game, so QB Zac Thomas is going to have his hands full. Note that Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 37 points or more in its last game, while App State is already 0-2 ATS this year after a win by 21 points or more. No outright, but closer than what this spread would suggest. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern. |
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10-31-19 | West Virginia +18 v. Baylor | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: West Virginia is 3-4 and running out of time to become eligible. An outright win over 7-0 Baylor isn't likely going to happen, but I do definitely feel that the conditions are correct for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers have lost three straight, but they come in off a much needed bye week and I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will help them in keeping this one relatively close until the final moments. The pick: The Mountaineers can score, but their defense has been terrible. The Bears are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but with another "cream puff" with TCU up next, I think this does in fact set up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side as well. Finally note that WVU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while Baylor is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home and a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. No outright, but closer than expected. 9* PLAY-BOOK on West Virginia. |
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10-29-19 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 91-120 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies ended a two-game losing streak with a big OT win at home over the Nets and I look for this young visiting side to carry that momentum over here. The Lakers lost to the Clippers on opening night, but they've since won back-to-back games over Utah and Charlotte. With upcoming road games vs. an improved Dallas team up next, followed by San Antonio and Chicago, would anyone fault LA for looking past its lowly opponent today? Memphis' young core of Jae Crowder, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Jonas Valanciunas will be able to keep this one competitive once again in my opinion. The pick: Yes the Lakers have Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Dwight Howard, but they're still without Kyle Kuzma and Rajon Rondo. Memphis has struggled defensively in the early going, but LA has so far only averaged 105.7 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Additionally note that Memphis is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 120 points or more, while LA is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. I think LA does indeed get caught looking past the hungry Grizzlies today, so grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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10-29-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Do or die?! Now or never?! Washington has its back against the wall and I'm not going to give up on it quite yet. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side counters with Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Strasburg has earned a win in four of his last five playoff games, allowing only six runs total in that span. Verlander has been downright terrible in the postseason, losing three of his last four decisions, most recently getting shelled for four runs off seven hits over six innings vs. the Nationals. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Nats are 6-0 in their last six playoff road games, while the Astros are only 1-4 in their last five interleague home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Verlander's been terrible, while Strasburg has been superb. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Nationals RUN LINE. |
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10-27-19 | Blazers +2 v. Mavs | Top | 121-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Damian Lillard has scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games for the Blazers. Hassan Whiteside and CJ MCCollum round out a powerful and veteran line-up. Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Doncic have been great for the Mavericks, but I think the lack of depth off the bench will ultimately prove to be too much for the Mavs today. The pick: Additionally note that Portland is 24-12 ATS in its last 36 after scoring 120 points or more in its previous outing, while Dallas is a poor 14-16 ATS in its last 30 as a home favorite of six points or less. I like Whiteside to slow down Porzingis tonight and I look for the deeper bench of Portland to do the rest. Grab the points. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Portland Trail Blazers. |
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10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans -6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points. 10* play on the Houston Texans. |
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10-27-19 | Bucs +2.5 v. Titans | 23-27 | Loss | -109 | 147 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have had to deal with adveristy this year. The Bucs though have the better QB in place in this one and I think Jameis Winston will in fact be the difference maker in this one. The Titans managed a win over the Chargers last week, but I think they take a predictable step back here. Winston struggled in his last start vs. the Panthers, but he'll look to Chris Godwin to try and turn things around this week; Godwin has 662 yards and six TD's through the first six games this year. The pick: The Titans' QB situation is even worse though, as Marcus Mariota has been benched for Ryan Tannehill, who has looked decent in one game and poor in the other. Tampa Bay though is a pefect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two straight division contests, while Tennessee is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Look for Winston to settle down here and find a way to get the job done here. 8* play on the Bucs. |
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10-27-19 | Seahawks v. Falcons +3.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 147 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: I got down early on this one before it was confirmed that Matt Ryan wasn't going to play. Regardless, after losing five straight I think the Falcons and Matt Schaub find a way to get the job done here. Seattle allows 357 yards per game and Falcons' WR Julio Jones had 560 receiving yards and four TD's. The pick: Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett have been a deadly duo so far this year for the Hawks, but after Seattle's win at home over the Ravens last week and with a game at home vs. the Bucs before a road contest at division leading San Fran and its bye, I think this contest definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Additionally note that Seattle is stil a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while ATL is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four after five or more consecutive losses. I think Schaub is in fact a "good" thing for this Falcons team, as I look for the veteran backup to play his heart out here. Grab the points. 8* play on the Falcons. |
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10-27-19 | Jets v. Jaguars -4.5 | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 147 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Jags won this contest 31-12 last year and I expect a similar sort of beatdown here as well. New York is just 1-5 and it enters off a 33-0 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Jags on the other hand enter off a 27-17 win over the Bengals and I have no reason not to think that they can't keep that momentum rolling here vs. this similar pathetic competition. Last week New York posted six turnovers, including two fumbles and it was flagged eight times for 60 yards. The Jags have 21 sacks and four INT's already this year and I believe they're going do some serious damage to Sam Darnold and this Jets' offensive line. The pick: Leonard Fournette had 131 yards rushing in last week's victory for the Jags and I think he'll be a difference maker at home this week as well. Overall the Jets have just seven sacks and five INT's on the year, so Jags' QB Gardner Minshew and Fournette will plenty of opportunities to make some dynamic plays this weekend. Additionally it's interesting to note that the Jags are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after posting 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. I expect a lop-sided rout from start to finish. Lay the points. 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. |
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10-27-19 | Eagles +1.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 147 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: This non-confernece matchup means more to the 3-4 Eagles than it does to the 5-1 Bills in my opinion. I do indeed believe the the "hungrier" side will find a way to get the job done in this one. Buffalo has been carried so far by its defense, which is ranked third in the league by allowing only 15.2 PPG. That said, Josh Allen and the home side only average 20.2 PPG on the offensive side. The Eagles can't look past this game after falling 37-10 to the Cowboys last time out. The pick: While the Eagles looked poor offensively last week, I think that Carson Wentz and Philly get back on track here. The Bills offense has been terrible as well and there's opportunity for the visitors to steal this one outright. Further note that Philadelphia is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog, while Buffalo is only 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite. Desperation breeds motivation. Grab the points. 8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +7 v. Colts | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 147 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Denver opened the season with four straight close losses, but then it posted back-to-back victories, before then regressing again with a 30-6 loss to KC last week. Denver's defense has been decent and I think it'll come up big here on the road. The pick: The Colts have played to many close games as well, but after a 30-23 win over the Texans last week, I think Indy has a predictable letdown this week. The Broncos are also 4-1 ATS in their last five off a divisional contest, while the Colts are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a home win. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done here. Grab the points. 8* play on the Denver Broncos. |
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10-26-19 | Clippers v. Suns +9 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Phoenix held a lead in Denver for most of the night last night, but it wasn't to be in its eventual 108-107 OT loss. Playing the second game of a back-to-back is never easy, but let's get real. We're still in the first week of the season and these are professional athletes. I'll argue that playing again so quickly is actually a benefit for the clearly "gelling" Suns, who blew out the Kings in their opener. The Clippers are off to a 2-0 start and they definitely appear to be the team to beat in the NBA this season. The pick: The Clippers took out the Lakers and then the Warriors in Golden State, but with games against the Suns tonight and then the Hornets at home on Monday, would anyone fault LA for taking the foot off the gas here tonight? I like the home side to shake off last night's loss and to defend its own floor. That said, grab the generous points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns. |
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10-26-19 | California +18.5 v. Utah | Top | 0-35 | Loss | -108 | 132 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 10* play on California |
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10-26-19 | Boston College +34 v. Clemson | 7-59 | Loss | -115 | 130 h 1 m | Show | |
The set-up: Obviously I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I do believe that the stage is set for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Dennis Grosel ha had to fill the shoes of starter Anthony Brown, but thankfully the offense revolves mostly around RB AJ Dillon. BC is coming off a big win and it's also fresh out of its bye week. Overall the Eagles averages 34.6 PPG and they allow 28.1. The pick: The Tigers are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country. On the year they're averaging 40 points and conceding only 12. Clemson leans heavily on RB Travis Etienne, who averages almost 8 yards per carry. It's interesting to note though that Clemson is just 2-5 ARTS in its last seven at home in this series, while BC is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Additionally note that the Eagles have failed to cover in just eight of their last 29 games overall. No outright, but expect a solid cover from a good team that won't be going down today without a fight. 8* play on Boston College. |
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10-26-19 | Memphis v. Tulsa +10.5 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 129 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Memphis is 6-1 and bowl eligible, while Tulsa needs to string some wins together at 2-5. The Tigers lost their first game of the year, but have since reeled of six straight to become eligible, including a 47-17 victory over Tulane last time out. But with a game against Conference leader SMU up next weekend, I have a hard time seeing Memphis not getting caught "looking ahead" to that much more high-profile contest. Memphis' QB Brady White threw for five TD's in his last game, but I think he and the rest of his team do indeed come in complacent here after their sixth win of the year. The pick: Tulsa is averaging only 21.9 PPG, and it's allowing 31. It's faced three straight difficult opponents though in SMU, Navy and Cincinnati, as QB Zack Smith had a 10:6 TD:INT thus far. Memphis though is a poor 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 42 points or more in its last game, while Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. I think Tulsa plays with heart and takes the Tigers down to the wire. Grab the points. 8* play on Tulsa. |
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10-26-19 | Troy v. Georgia State +1 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 129 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Troy is 3-3 and desperate to string some wins together. Georiga State is 5-3 and can become eligible with one last victory. What better time than right now?! Troy enters off a 37-13 win over South Alabama, while Georgia State got the better of Army 28-21. Troy is led by QB Kaleb Barker and the Trojans are putting up a decent 449.2 yards of offense per game. Unfortunately though Troy has been an absolute train wreck on the other side of the ball, ranked 120th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the pass, allowing 287.7 YPG. The pick: Georgia State is led by senior QB Dan Ellington, who had three TD passes vs. a tough Army defense last weekend. So far Ellington has a strong 16:3 TD:INT this year and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. Also note that the Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after posting 28 points or more in their previous game, while Troy is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 35 points or more while also covering in its previous outing. This one has home side rout written all over it. 8* play on Georgia State. |
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10-26-19 | Illinois +8 v. Purdue | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 122 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have dropped four of their last five games. Illinois though is ocming off an epic 24-23 win at home over Wisconsin (which entered that game at 6-0 and as a 29 point favorite.) The Illini looked a lot better, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I think the team carries that momentum over here. The pick: Purdue will be tested by the Illini both on the ground and in the air. The Boilermakers allow 275 yards per game through the air. Is Boilermakers' QB Jack Plummer that much better than Illinois QB Brandon Peters? If we go by last week's results, the answer is no in my opinion. This one has the feel of an outright battle until the final whistle and because of that, I'm grabbing the points. 8* play on Illinois |
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10-26-19 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Texas A&M | 30-49 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Texas A&M is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in conference action, while Mississippi State is 3-4 overall and 1-3 in league action. Mississippi State comes in hungry here after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 36-13 to LSU. QB Garrett Schrader had 238 yards, one TD and one INT. He also had 66 rushing yards: "We played our asses off today, and we fought," MSU head coach Joe Moorhead told Hail State. "Was it clean, was it precise, was it what we needed to be against this team? Absolutely not. But I know this – when I'm in that locker room and I look at that team and I saw how we fought; we're going to build off of this one. We're going to take the good things and correct the bad things, and be a football team that continues to fight for the rest of the year." The Bulldogs average 25.4 PPG and they allow 26.4. The pick: Last week the Aggies beat Mississippi 24-17, but QB Kellen Mond did not look overly impressive, going 16 of 28 for 172 yards, one TD and two INT's. So far Texas A&M averages 31 PPG and it allows 22, however note that it's just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss. I think this is going to be a battle until the final whistle and as such, I'm grabbing the generous amount of points. 8* play on Mississippi State. |
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10-26-19 | Bowling Green v. Western Michigan -26 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 122 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Bowling Green is 2-5 overall after giving up 38 points to CMU last weekend. WMU is 2-2 in league play, but its offense is ranked 27th in the nation, averaging 34.4 PPG. Also note that the Broncos play with revenge here after they fell 42-37 to the Green Falcons last year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is 4-0 at home and Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road. The Falcons just gave up 560 yards of offense to Central Michigan and QB's Darius Wade and Grant Loy continue to struggle. WMU senior QB Jon Wassink on the other hand already has 2,098 passing yards on the season (15 TD, 7 INT.) The Broncos also have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and 4-0 ATS following a SU loss, while BG is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. I don't expect the WMU defense to be the main story line tomorrow, but it won't have to with his Broncos' offense having its way with this porous Falcons' secondary. Lay the points with confidence. 8* play on Western Michigan |
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10-25-19 | USC v. Colorado +12.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson. The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado. |
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10-25-19 | Bulls +1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bulls lost 126-125 in Charoltte on opening night, but I think this fast-paced visiting side will have more than enough in the tank to take out the lowly home side here. Lauri Markkanen was a bright spot in a losing cause for Chicago with 35 points and 17 boards and its defense catches a break here facing Memphis, which fell 120-101 in Miami in its opener. The pick: Ja Morant was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year for Memphis and he finished with 14 points and four assists. But the Grizz are still a poor 7-19 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous outing. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion. 10* play on the Chicago Bulls. |
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10-25-19 | Wolves v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-99 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: Minnesota beat the Nets on Opening night in an OT decision, but I think the team has a predictable letdown here. Charlotte enters off a hard-fought upset win at home over the Bulls and with nothing to lose, I think the home side can keep this one competitive until the final moments again. Last year the Wolves averaged 112.5 PPG and allowed 111.1. The pick: Dwayne Bacon had 22 points for the Hornets in their 126-125 win over the Bulls. last season Charlotte averaged 110.4 PPG and it conceded 114.0. Note though that the Hornets are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, while the Wolves are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory. While this one has "upset" written all over it, in the end I'm grabbing the points. 8* play on Charlotte. |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +13.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston. |
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10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 1. With their backs against the wall, I believe that Justin Verlander and the home side come out and deliver an epic response on Game 2. Honestly, it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these staters to win this game, as Stephen Strasburg has been a "rock" for the Nats all season and during the playoffs. This play is based upon the "situation" and some strong ATS trends. The only mission of a visiting team in the start of a playoff series is to earn a "split" over the first two games. Sure Washington would LOVE to win both games, but with that crucial mission indeed accomplished, I think the visitors get caught taking the mental foot off the gas. For Houston though, this is essentially "do or die."Â The pick: Note that Washington is just 3-7 in its last ten road games following a victory by one run or more, while Houston is 7-4 in its last 11 home games after allowing five or more runs in its previous contest. I expect Houston to win, and win big! 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Astros on the RUN-LINE. |
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10-23-19 | Pistons +5 v. Pacers | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pistons were 41-41 last year and they were the eighth seed in the East, while Indiana was 48-34 and ended up as the fourth seed last year. The Pistons enter the year on full health (other than Griffin) and welcome back all of their core players from last year. Detroit also signed Derrick Rose and Markieff Morris amonth others. The pick: The Pacers are awaiting for their super star Victor Oladipo to return from injury and I think they'll have a hard time adjusting on opening night. Indiana signed Malcom Brogdon to run the point, but I think he'll have his hands full as well tonight with Rose and company. I think Detroit has everything in place to improve this year and even with Oladipo in the line-up, I believe that the Pacers have the potential to take a big step back. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Detroit Pistons. |
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10-20-19 | Chargers v. Titans -1 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans. |
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10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -102 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: After two straight wins, I think that Kyler Murray and the Cardinals take a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals most recently scored the upset 34-33 win over the Falcons. The Giants are now led by Daniel Jones and they most recently were destroyed by the Patriots on Thursday night. The Cards' offense has been decent of late, but the defense has taken a step back. The pick: The Giants welcome back starting RB Saquon Barkley to the line-up, which is obviously a huge boost to New York's offense. Also note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a win by six points or less, while New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight loss by ten points or more; I'm laying the short points! 9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants. |
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10-20-19 | Raiders v. Packers -5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off its bye week after beating the Bears in London. This is the Raiders fourth game out of five straight away from home and I think they'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. In the win over Chicago, QB Derek Carr had zero TD's and zero INt's. Also note that the Raiders come to town with question marks surrounding their top two receivers, as Dwayne Harris and Tyrell Williams are both listed as questionable. The pick: Oakland allows 24.6 PPG as well this year. Green Bay escpaed with a win over Detroit last week, but the Lions lead the league in several defensive categories. Green Bay's defense is conceding just 19.2 PPG and the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Raiders on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning record. Lay the points. 8* SMOKE-JOB on the Packers. |
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10-19-19 | Boise State v. BYU +7 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 82 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: Boise State is 6-0 and BYU is just 2-4. BYU comes in desperate though after three straight losses. The Broncos are rolling, but I think they come out flat here after their 59-37 conference destruction of Hawaii. Yes Boise State posted 518 yards of total offense in the victory, but it also conceded 435. The pick: Both teams have injuries to starting QB's. BYU has the home field advantage and is the "hungrier" team here. I love this pick from an overall "situational" stand point, but also note that Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by 17 or more points, while BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a loss by six points or less. Grab the points. 10* play on BYU.  |
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10-19-19 | Old Dominion +16.5 v. UAB | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: ODU is 1-5 and UAB is 5-1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ODU has been terrible offensively, but I think this sets up great from a situational stand point for the visitors. The pick: UAB is on the verge of eligiblity, but with its bye week up next before a game vs. the Vols and then Southern Miss, I believe the home side does indeed get caught "looking ahead." This is as situationally based selection on the visitors. 8* play on ODU. |
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10-19-19 | Indiana v. Maryland +6 | 34-28 | Push | 0 | 76 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm grabbing the points and expecting the 3-3 Terps to take the 4-2 Hoosiers down to the line. Indiana has won three of four, while Maryland has dropped three of four. The Terrapins are stout up front, allowing just 135 yards per game on the ground. The Terps can score as well, ranked in the top 50 as far as total yards of offense per game. The pick: Defense has been the weak point for the Terps, but Indiana has struggled as well, having allowed at least 28 points in eight of its last nine Big Ten contests. The Hoosiers are also a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a blowout loss vs. a conference rival of 21 point or more. Grab the points. 8* play on Maryland. |
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10-19-19 | Minnesota v. Rutgers +28.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -109 | 76 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: Minnesota is 6-0, while Rutgers is just 1-5. I think the Golden Gophers go up early in this one and then coast in the second half. The Knights are actually decent against the pass and the Knights only average 229.7 YPG through the air anyways. The Gophers dominate the run game, and Rutgers struggles against the rush.  The pick: But I think that plays into our hands in here in grabbing the massive amount of points. It's back to back "cream puffs" for Minnesota, with Maryland at home up next. No need to do anything fancy here. Additionally note that the Gophers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog of 14.5 points or more. No titanic upsets, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 8* play on Rutgers. |
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10-19-19 | Oregon State +11 v. California | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oregon State is just 2-4. Cal is 4-2, but it enters have lost two straight. Note that the Beavers play with revenge here as well after they fell 49-7 in this game last year. Last week the Bears managed just 256 total yards of offense, including only 66 on the ground. Yes the Bears only allow 18.3 PPG, but they only average 20.3 (ranked No. 116 in the country.) The pick: Beavers' QB Jake Lutton struggled vs. Utah last week, Oregon State still comes in averaging a very respectable 32 PPG. The defense has been the weak point in conceding 34 PPG, but it catches a break here facing the Bears vanilla offense. Finally note that Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. I think the Beavers open up the playbook and keep this one competitive throughout. 8* play on Oregon State.  |
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10-19-19 | Central Michigan -10.5 v. Bowling Green | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: I expect the 4-3 CMU Chippewas to lay the hammer down here on the 2-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green has won two straight in the series, but I expect that trend to firmly go in the other direction after tonight. Previous to last week's win over Toledo, note that the Falcons had lst four straight, giving up 201 points and posting only 27 of their own in the process. The Chips come in off back-to-back victories, most recently taking care of winless New Mexico State. CMU won't be with QB David Moore, but senior Quinten Dormady had 134 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Aggies last week. The pick: Despite last week's win the Green Falcons are still averaging only 16 PPG. CMU is conceding 28 PPG, but so clearly the Chips' defense catches a break here as well. Finally note that CMU is a sharp 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Bowling Green is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the same points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Lay the points and expect a rout. 8* play on Central Michigan. |
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10-19-19 | Purdue +18 v. Iowa | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards. The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points. 8* play on Purdue. |
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10-18-19 | Red Wings v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Did the Red Wings get caught "looking ahead" to this game after their 5-1 loss in Calgary just last night? Probably. But that still doesn't make tonight's task any easier as the now weary Wings head to Edmonton to play the second game of the back to back vs. a red hot Oilers team. The Wings are allowing 3.75 GPG on the road, while only netting an average of 2.75. Wings' netminder Jonathan Bernier has been a bright spot in the early going with a 2-1, 3.33 GAA record, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult venue. The pick: The Oilers average the second highest amount of goals this year (4.00) and they concede the 11th lowest (2.71.) Edmonton goalie Mike Smith is 3-1 with a 2.50 GAA thus far. Edmonton is also 4-0 in its last four vs. the Eastern Conference, while Detroit is just 26-38 in non-conference games the last two years. I'm laying the 1.5 goals. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Edmonton Oilers PUCK-LINE. |
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10-18-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern +28 | Top | 52-3 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.)Â The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos. |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette -5.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama +15 v. Troy | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama. |
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10-15-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings. Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions. The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game. 10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE. |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions. |
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