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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oklahoma City had won five straight ATS in this series before the two SU/ATS playoff losses to the Rockets. OKC is filled with talent and Houston has been dealing with injuries, so I'm a little surprised to this point. In fact in Game 2 the Thunder eneterd the fourth quarter with a 1 point lead, but they ended up losing by 13. The pick: Thunder guard Chris Paul was only 6 of 15 in Game 2 and I don't see that happening again. I'll still argue that the Thunder are the "deeper" team and I'll point out as well that they're 10-5 ATS in their last 15 following back-to-back losses, which includes a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks could easily be up 2-0 in this series if star center Kristaps Porzingis wasn't ejected in the second period of Game 1. Dallas was clearly the better team in Game 2 and with the Clippers dealing with injuries to important players still, I have a hard time seeing LA keeping pace with this well oiled Mavericks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder right now. The pick: LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as well after a ten points or larger loss in its last game. Does Dallas have a legitimate shot at winning Game 3 outright? With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe it does. And so do I. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz +2 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver beat the Jazz in double OT in the regular seaosn and then it also managed to pull for an OT win in Game 1 of this series. The Jazz battled tough though and in Game 2 they laid down the 124-105 smack down and I think they can build off that victory with another one in Game 3. The pick: And guess what? Utah won Game 2 without the services of star guard Mike Conley, who now returns to the team after the birth of his son. Additionally note that the Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 10 points or larger victory. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +6 v. Lakers | 88-111 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Not many would disagree that the teams that doe the best in the playoffs are the one's that are exhibiting the best "chemistry." You can have all the talent in the World on paper, but if you aren't working together as a team, that talent often gets wasted or exploited by units which are playing at an extremely high level together. LA has struggled to cover the spread since the re-start and despite being down 0-1, I don't expect Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to go easy in Game 2. The pick: Additionally note that LA is now 0-5 ATS in its last five conference quarter-final contests, while Portland is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 overall. Grab the points. This is an 8* SURE SHOT DESTRUCTION on the Blazers. |
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08-20-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana was swept in four games by the Celtics in the first round last year. So far the Pacers are only 1-4 vs. the Heat this season, including falling both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this series. Indiana is led by TJ Warren and with revenge on their minds, I believe the more experienced and hungrier Pacers will bounce back and deliver the goods here. The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Indiana has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after losing by ten or more points in a playoff contest. Look for Indiana to at the very least, push Miami until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks had an eight point lead half way through the third quarter of Game 1, and then big man Kristaps Porzingis got ejected and the Mavs fell apart mentally and failed to cover the spread in the end. Porzingis is back though in Game 2 and I do legitimately believe that Dallas has a chance at taking Game 2 outright. LA is still dealing with several key players missing and I think that catches up to them here. The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers are still a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-18-20 | Magic +10 v. Bucks | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I took this game early and have an unfavorable line, but I still love this play and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the deep and talented Magic will easily keep this one close enough to cover with the ample points they've been afforded. Both teams were 3-5 in the bubble. The Bucks swept all four regular season games, but the Magic were dealing with several injuries to key players back then. Orlando has Vucevic back which is signficant, but is dealing with an injury to Aaron Gordon, meaning that Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier will have to step up here. The pick: I think the Bucks classically get caught a bit complacent in this very first game. Milwaukee is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a ten points or greater loss (fell 119-106 to the Grizz.) The odds are clearly against Orlando winning this series or this game, but if it has any shot, it will be in trying to pull off the upset in Game 1. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Magic. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Clippers really deeper and more talented than the Mavericks? Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, but I'd argue that Montrezl Harell's absence for LA is the most significant. Also note that Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both questionable for this one as well. The Mavs have a possible injury to Seth Curry, but guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke have been very steady for the Mavs. The pick: I'll point out as well that the Clippers are a devastatingly poor 8-22 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The Clippers supporting cast is banged up, while the Mavs have two stars in Luca Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing at their highest level of their careers. The outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Mavericks. |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ja Morant hasn't played very well in the Bubble, but the dynamic guard has a chance to reverse his fortunes here in which he hopes will be a two-game play in series. If Portland wins, then this series is over and the Blazers will go on to face the Lakers. But if Memphis wins, these two teams will play a second game. Portland has played well behind Damian Lillard, but the Grizzlies matchup well with Portland in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that Portland is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the +6 to +12 range. In a game which comes down to the wire, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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08-12-20 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Flyers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yes the Flyers looked great over their three-game round robin, they annihilated Tampa, Washington and Dallas. The Flyers look "for real," but I think they'll have all they can handle from the Canadiens in this first game. The pick: The Habs were fantastic in dispatching the Penguins as they continue to get a high level of play from star goaltender Carey Price. Montreal is deep and it benefited from the extra time off. In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals. This is an 6* play on the Habs PUCK LINE. |
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08-10-20 | Thunder +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns are 5-0 in the Bubble, that's both SU and ATS, but I think Phoenix finally takes a step back here vs. surging OKC, who enters off a relatively simple 121-103 win over Washington on Sunday afternoon. Note that that Thunder are a super 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing the second game of a back to back and off a 15 points or more victory. The pick: Additionally note that the Suns have a tough game tomorrow night vs. the 76ers, who are just as hungry for victories right now as well. Everything's been going right for the Suns, but now they face a red hot Thunder team with even greater depth and experience. So while clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: With a win in their last game, the Bucks have now clinched the top spot in the East. Everything from here on out is to work on playoff strategy, so don't expect to see much of Giannis Antetokounmpo in this one if you're a Milwaukee fan. The pick: The Mavericks on the other hand have lost five of their last seven, most recently getting blown out by the Clippers. Dallas is still in a fight for positioning and it absolutely needs to start playing better if it has any shot at advancing in the postseason. So far it's been a letdown for Luca Doncic and company in the bubble, but a game vs. the Bucks' "B-Team" is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. Outright victory?! Of course! That said, let's grab the points. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-05-20 | Penguins -1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up at one-game a piece after the Penguins won 3-1 in Game 2. I believe we'll see a similar type of ending here, with Pittsburgh's depth, offensive skill and superior defensive play proving to be too much for Montreal to handle as this series wares on. Not only do I expect the Penguins' offense to finally "wake up" here (note, their potent power play is just 1 for 12 so far in this series and I don't expect that trend of futility to continue) and win this game, but I believe they're going to win by a significant margin. The pick: And that makes laying this goal and a half for the signficant return the sharp wager in my opinion. Additionally note that the Pens are 7-3 in their last ten after a playoff win by two or more goals. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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08-05-20 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -4 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are in desperate need of a victory here. Dating back finds the Grizzlies entering on a four-game losing slide, while the Jazz are just 1-2 in the Bubble, including losing back-to-back games. The Grizz enter averaging 112.7 PPG and allowing 113.9, while the Jazz are averaging 110.7 and conceding 108. The pick: Utah though has performed incredibly well for bettors in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. These teams are very familiar with each other, but the Jazz have the upper hand in a number of matchups (especially in the middle of the paint) and I expect them to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover by the end of the night. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-04-20 | Suns v. Clippers -9 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Suns entered the Bubble healthier than they've been all season and that has translated into two straight victories, but I think that Phoenix will finally stumble here vs. this "step up" in competition. The Clippers lost to the Lakers in their first game, before recovering to hammer the Pelicans 126-103 in their second. Phoenix is still 2.5 games behind the Spurs for the eighth spot with six games remaining, but the Clippers are only two games up on third-place Denver. Unfortunately for the Suns, the Clippers can't afford to take the foot off the gas either. The pick: Note that the Clippers are now 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. the Western Conference, while the Suns are a poor 2-9 ATS in their last 11 in this series. I believe the Suns lack of depth on the bench gets exposed here as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Clippers. |
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08-03-20 | Lakers v. Jazz +6 | 116-108 | Loss | -104 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
The set-up: Utah looked out of sorts in its 110-94 setback to the Thunder. The Jazz managed a slim victory over the Pelicans in their opener and while they may not take this game outright, I do think the stage is set for a nail-biter. The Lakers of course looked good in their opener vs. the Clippers, but they seemed pretty disinterested in their second game, a blowout loss to the Raptors. The pick: The fact of the matter is, the Lakers only needed to go 1-7 over these final eight games to lock up the top spot in the West and they already did that in their first game. LA does not need to push the pace or risk injury at all over the next two weeks, instead it can already be planning for the playoffs and working on different things related to that. The Jazz though need to find consistency and tonight's game is ultra important in proving that. I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* play on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-03-20 | Spurs v. 76ers -7 | 130-132 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Spurs looked good in their Opening Day win, but they play against a hungry Memphis team on Sunday and I think they'll predictably stumble here vs. a 76ers side which will be out to prove that their blowout loss to the Pacers in their Opener was just an "outlier."Â The pick: As primarily a situational handicapper, these are the types of "spots" that I am always keeping my eyes open for. For all intents and purposes, this becomes a "must win" for Philly, who can't afford any more chemistry issues or execuses. I'm laying the points. This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia 76ers. |
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08-03-20 | Pacers -7 v. Wizards | Top | 111-100 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers laid the hammer down on Philly 127-121 in their opener and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as well in their second game vs. the undermanned and "gassed" Wizards. Washington has a game vs. the Nets on Sunday afternoon and I believe it's going to predictably come into this one with "heavy legs."Â The pick: Indiana took two of three in the regular season series and that was without the services of Victor Oladipo. I believe Indiana will push the pace/tempo from the opening tip until the final horn and that's why I have no issues at all in laying these points. This is a 10* play on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-03-20 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Thunder | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nuggets looked sluggish in their 125-105 setback to the Heat in their opener, but I think this incredibly deep team will make adjustments and come out much better in its second outing. The Thunder rolled over the Jazz, but Utah had a mental lapse there after its 106-104 Opening night win over the Pelicans. The pick: Denver took two of three in the regular season series, as its big men present significant matchup issues for OKC. I expect Denver to indeed make some adjustments and to continue its recent domination of this particular matchup. This is an 8* play on the Denver Nuggets. |
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08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas lost 153-149 to the Rockets in OT in its opening game back, but I believe it'll get the job done tonight in its second outing vs. the Suns, who enter off a 125-112 win over the Wizards in their opener. The pick: Dallas took two of three in the season series, as this is a matchup which definitely favors it. Note as well that the Mavs are a sharp 8-4 ATS in their last 12 Western Conference contests after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in their prevoius outing. I'm banking on a bounce back blowout here. 10* play on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-02-20 | Blue Jackets +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Leafs took two of three in the regular season series, but I like Columbus to at the very least, take this one into extra time and push Toronto to the brink (in Game 1 anyways!) Elvis Merzlikins is a difference maker for Columbus here in my opinion, as he enters the playoffs sporting a 2.35 GAA for the season (ranked third overall in the East and sixth in the league). The pick: Frederick Anderson has a 2.85 GAA, which ranks him 18th in the Eastern Conference. Note that Columbus lost 419 man games when the league stopped on March 12th, by far the most in the NHL. Now it's healthy and I expect that to pay dividends to open up the Playoffs. 8* PUCK-LINE DESTROYER on the Columbus Blue Jackets. |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -2.5 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Spurs looked good in their 129-120 win over the Kings, but I think they'll struggle against the equally as "deep," but now even hungrier Grizzlies, who enter off the tough 140-135 OT setback to the Blazers. The pick: The Grizz won two of three in the regular season and I predict another ATS victory here. Note as well that Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after at OT win in which it scored 140 points or more in. I'm banking on the "hungrier" team that lost on Opening night to dig deep and find a way to get the job done at the end of this one. 8* play on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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08-02-20 | Blazers v. Celtics -4 | 124-128 | Push | 0 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Portland received a two point shot from Carmelo Anthony at the end of regulation to push its opening game vs. the Grizzlies to OT and then the Blazers pulled way for the 140-135 victory. The Celtics on the other hand had to play from behind the entire night vs. the Bucks in their opener and while they played tough, they'd ultimately lose 119-112. The pick: I think though that the Blazers come into this contest predictably "gassed," while I look for the much hungrier Celtics, who got much stronger in the second half of their loss to Milwaukee. Note that the C's almost won as well with star Jason Tatum having his worst game almost of his entire career as well. That's not going to happen twice though. Look for this deep Boston side to bounce back with a solid ATS victory on Sunday. 8* play on the Boston Celtics. |
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08-01-20 | Lakers v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 843 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: One team which is certainly not a "fraud" is the Toronto Raptors. The long lay off definitely helps the defending champs, as they had several key players dealing with nagging injury issues. Those are now resolved and this under-rated team comes in looking for a back-to-back opportunity. The pick: I think the Lakers come in a step slow here after their opening night contest vs. division rival Clippers. I'm grabbing the points, but I wouldn't be shocked by a straight up situational victory here. 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. |
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08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +4 | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 841 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: The 76ers are a fraud in my opinion until they can finally prove that they can win an important series. Philly was just 10-24 on the road this season as well.  The pick: The Pacers played well without Victor Oladipo and whether he plays or not, I think Indiana has a real shot at taking this opening contest ouright. Note that Indiana was one of the most effective offensive teams in the NBA, hitting 47.7 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from range. Grab as many points as you can. 8* play on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder +1 | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 838 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: We're not dealing with your typical scenario obviously with this re-start. For me this particular selection comes down to the fact that the Jazz will be looking to take advantage of New Orleans on Opening Night and won't be prepared for the quick turnaround vs. the deep Thunder. The pick: OKC is loaded with talent and it's good on both ends of the floor. The Thunder can't sit back and hope things turn out well here, they have to hit the ground running. As far as "situational" plays go, I think this is as solid as it gets. 8* play on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-01-20 | Heat v. Nuggets | 125-105 | Win | 100 | 835 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams sit first in their respective divisions. Both teams are going to want to hit the ground running as to build momentum, but I believe that Miami is better prepared on Opening night. Miami is a young team and I think the extra time off will help this group focus. The pick: Jamal Murray is questionable as well for Denver, which swings things in favor of Jimmy Butler and the Heat here in my opinion. Miami was poor on the road, but the proximity to home helps it in this situation as well. 8* play on the Miami Heat. |
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07-31-20 | Rockets v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 153-149 | Loss | -110 | 820 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks have a golden opportunity to catch up to the Rockets, who are first int he Southwest at 40-24. Dallas is 40-27. To say this is a "big" game right out of the gates would be an understatement. Note that Houston is 29-35-0 ATS this year, while Dallas is 35-29-3. The pick: Both teams are dealing with a few injury issues, but certainly Houston's Russell Westbrook having to deal with the coronavirus right now is the biggest blow. Westbrook is listed as questionable for this contest. That's a major issue in my opinion for Houston and I believe that Dallas will attack from the outset in this game. Houston opened as the fav, but now Dallas is. Regardless, I look for the Mavericks depth to prove to be too much for James Harden to overcome by himself on Opening Night. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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07-16-20 | Sheffield United +0.5 v. Leicester | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Leicester had a 1-0 lead over Bournemouth going into half last week, but when the smoke cleared at the end of the game, the Foxes would end up losing 4-1. Leicester is in trouble of falling out of the top four and it will surely be giving a better effort, but the Blades have looked a lot better themselves of late, most recently coming off a commanding 3-0 win over Chelsea. The pick: With a Europa League spot still on the line for Sheffield United, combined with the "home field" advantage, I'll gladly lay the small price for the extra 0.5 goal of insurance in this one. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Sheffield United +0.5 -114 Pinnacle. |
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07-09-20 | Tottenham Hotspur v. AFC Bournemouth +1 | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Bournemouth is out to atone for a lacklustre 5-2 setback to Man United last time out, but now it's back at home and it's one behind the relegation zone. It's now or never and I look for the Cherries to take advantage of this Tottenham side which was clobbered 3-1 by Sheffield United, before recovering for a weak 1-0 win over Everton its last outing. The pick: Further good news for the host team sees the return of attacker Callum Wilson from suspension. I'm laying the short price for the extra goal of insurance here (but definitely wouldn't also be completely shocked by an outright upset in this one either.)Â 8* PLAY-BOOK on Bournemouth +1 -140 Pinnacle. |
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06-17-20 | Arsenal +1.5 v. Manchester City | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -111 | 291 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Man City laid the smack down on Arsenal 3-0 in mid December, but I believe that we'll witness a much tighter affair after the extended break. Arsenal is currently in ninth, but it hasn't lost a league game since the start of the new year and it won its final three matches before the pandemic. Of course Man City is still trying to lock down a Champions League spot, but the Gunners could still move into the Top 4 if they can pull off the outright here. The pick: Man City has already dropped four of 13 matches at home this year, which does give the Gunners a glimmer of hope here as well. And finally note that Arsenal has found the back of the net at Etihad Stadium at least once on each of its last seven visits. I'm laying the short price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. 10* PLAY OF THE WEEK on ARSENAL +1.5 -115 Pinnacle. |
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03-11-20 | Nebraska +12.5 v. Indiana | Top | 64-89 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year already and Indiana is 2-0. Both games have been very competitive though and I fully expect a repeat performance of those contests here. Indiana won 96-90 in OT in the first game, while then also winning 82-74 in the second. The Cornhuskers are the worst team in the Big Ten, but Indiana had plenty of issues as well this season. Not only does Nebraska play with revenge here after the two regular season losses, but it'll also be out to play spoiler, as the Hoosiers are definitely on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament is concerned. The pick: Nebraska is also already 2-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 3-1 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Indiana is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but expect a battle until the end. Grab as many points as you can. 10* SHOCKER ELITE OF THE ELITE on Nebraska. |
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03-11-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -2.5 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams finished 15-15. This is a revenge game for Clemson after it lost 73-68 in OT to the Hurricanes on New Years Eve. The Tigers lost two in a row to end the regular season, while Miami beat Syracuse in OT in its finale. Previous to that though the Hurricanes had lost three straight. Of note, Miami is playing without leading scorer Chris Lykes here, who was injured in a loss vs. Virginia last Wednesday. Clemson has struggled with consistency, but it does have some epic wins, including over Duke, Louisville and Florida State.)Â The pick: Additionally note that Clemson is already 2-0 ATS this year in all neutral court games, while Miami Florida is just 1-3 ATS in all neutral court affairs this season. Clemson's defense is ranked 39th in the nation and it plays with revenge here. I love the Tigers in this matchup. 8* HIGH-NOON SPECIAL on Clemson. |
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03-11-20 | CS Sacramento -5 v. Weber State | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Sacramento State is 15-14 and Weber State is 12-19. These teams split a pair of games during the regular season, but I still think that the Hornets are the better and ultimately deeper team in this particular matchup. Sacramento State stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it ranks sixth in the nation in defense by allowing only 59.9 PPG. Weber State lost three of their final four regular season games, allowing an average of 81.7 PPG in the setbacks. The pick: Note as well that Sacramento State is 10-4 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and 8-4 ATS this season after playing its last game as an underdog, while Weber State is a poor 1-3 ATS in all neutral cour games this year. I think the Hornets' incredible defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points. 10* BIG SKY TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR on Sacramento State. |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +4 | Top | 78-56 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia Tech beat UNC 79-77 in double OT on January 22nd, the only meeting between the schools this season. Both teams ended the regular season with a loss. Both teams disappointed this year overall. Cole Anthony is a lone bright spot for the Tar Heels (19.6 PPG), but beyond him that Tar Heels are very thin. The pick: UNC has been a downright disaster for bettors in this spot all year though, going just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite, while VT has been money in the bank by going 7-3 ATS this year after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a game as a road underdog. I'm expecting an outright win, but I'm grabbing the points as insurance. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Virginia Tech. |
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03-09-20 | Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto comes in off a hard-fought win in Sacramento just last night and I think it'll predictably stumble in this difficult road venue in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Jazz are rested and out to avenge a humbling 130-110 loss in Toronto back in December. This is also the final game of a five-game trip in which the Raptors have already posted three straight wins in. From a situational stand point, I definitely believe this one sets up fantastically for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Toronto is a poor 3-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less and only 10-14 ATS vs. clubs with winning records, while Utah is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revene a same season loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Utah Jazz. |
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03-09-20 | Central Michigan +7 v. Ohio | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the No. 8 Ohio Bobcats are going to have their hands full here vs. the No. 9 CMU Chippewas this evening. CMU plays with revenge after a 77-69 road defeat to Ohio in mid February. The Chips won't be lacking for motivation here. They opened the season 6-2 and then lost nine straight, before then finally posting an 85-68 win over WMU in its finale. CMU has the firepower to match anyone in the conference, as it is in fact the highest scoring team by averaging 78.7 PPG. The Bobcats started 2-7 and then won six of their final nine in conference play. Overall though the Bobcats average only 71.1 PPG this year. The pick: Yes the Chips have struggled defensively, but they closed out the regular season on a high-note and I like them to carry that momentum over here. Outright victory is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan. |
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03-08-20 | Michigan v. Maryland -3.5 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the final day of the Big Ten regular season and I think the home side will find a way to get the job done on Seniors Night. The Terps will be especially motivated here as well after dropping three of their last four. Overall the Wolverines average 75.2 PPG, while allowing 67.8. The Wolverines though are a sub-par 4-6 as the away team this season. Maryland averages 71.4 PPG and it allows 64.3. The Terps though are 15-1 at home this year. The pick: Regardless of today's result, both teams will be in The Tournament. It's been a big sucess for Michigan and first year head coach Juwan Howard, but I think the home side continues its brilliant play on its own floor. I expect the No. 1 team in the conference to shake off some recent scuffling play with a signature victory on Sunday afternoon. Lay the points. 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Maryland. |
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03-07-20 | Kings +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland comes in off another disappointing loss in Phoenix just last night and I think it'll predictably struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back. Neither team has thrown in the towel yet on the playoffs, but this is a spot that definitely benefits the Kings. Sacramento has a formidable backcourt in Buddy Hield and D'Aaron Fox, who counter Portland's Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The pick: Note as well that Sacramento is 20-12 ATS on the road this year and 20-13 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 100 points or more, while Portland is just 12-17 ATS at home this season and only 14-15 ATS as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Kings. |
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03-07-20 | Butler v. Xavier -2.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each team. I think this one means a lot more to the Seniors on Xavier as the Musketeers look to avenge a 66-61 road loss to the Butler Bulldogs in February. As primarily a "situational handicapper," this is exactly the type of "situation" and "motivation" I look for when breaking down a contest. Overall Butler averages 68.4 PPG and it allows 61.8. But not only is Xavier hungry to avenge the loss to Butler on Senior night, but it's still in a fight for one of the final spots in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Most recently the Musketeers fell 80-74 to Providence, making this a "must win" game for all intents and purposes. Overall Xavier averages 70.8 PPG and it allows 67.3. The pick: Xavier is 16-4 in its last 20 at home and 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games as well. I think Xavier pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier. |
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03-07-20 | Villanova v. Georgetown +6 | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: It's senior night for Georgetown. The Hoyas enter having lost five straight and with nothing to lose, I think the home side does in fact play with pride as it tries to pull off the big upset on national TV. Overall the Wildcats average 73.3 PPG and htey allow 66.3, while the Hoyas average 75.3 PPG and allow 74. The pick: Note as well that Villanova is just 3-7 ATS this year after plyaing three straight conference contests, while Georgetown is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive losses. Look for this one to come down to the wire and grab as many points as you can. 8* PLAY-BOOK on Georgetown. |
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03-06-20 | Thunder -7 v. Knicks | Top | 126-103 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Thunder to finally get back on track here in this favorable situation. After losses to the Bucks and Clippers, OKC bounced back with a win over Detroit last time out. New York won two in a row, but then it returned to form with a listless loss to the Jazz at home last time out. OKC averages 110.6 PPG and New York allows 112.0, while the Knicks average just 105.4 PPG, while the Thunder allow 108.5. The pick: Note as well that OKC is 21-8 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games, while New York is just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 after playing three straight at home. I think the Knicks "go through the motions" here in this non-conference matchup, while I look for the visitors to take full advantage of another favorable matchup. Lay the points. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Oklahoma City Thunder. |
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03-06-20 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the final game of the regular season for each. I'm basing this play most only the "revenge angle," as Georgia Tech posted the 68-59 home victory in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. The Yellow Jackets won't be participating in any tournaments this year because of a ban, so this is a meaningless game to them. Overall Georgia Tech averages 68.7 PPG and it allows 66.6. The Tigers average 66.9 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing only 63.9. The pick: Not only does Clemson play with revenge on Seniors Night, but note that Georgia Tech is 0-14 on the road in its last 14 in this series (the Tigers have won those games by an average of 10.1 points). Georgia Tech has lost four of its last five on the road and I expect the home side to take full advantage. 10* BEST OF THE BEST on Clemson. |
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03-05-20 | Stanford v. Oregon State | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Beavers upset the Cardinal by five on the road earlier in the season and I believe they'll find a way to do it again on their own floor tonight. The home side will be looking to play spoiler here on Seniors Night, as Stanford comes in having won four straight and on the verge of punching its ticket to The Big Dance. The Beavers are desperate to stop a four-game slide of their own and while they'll likely need to win the Conference tournament now to get an invite, there's still plenty to play for here for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Stanford is already 0-2 ATS this year after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, while Oregon State is a sharp 9-5 ATS at home this season. I'm laying the points on the hungrier home side on Seniors night. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon State. |
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03-04-20 | Pacers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers beat the Bucks in their final game before the All Star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that contest though and I think he's going to come out and play with a chip on his shoulder this evening. Both teams have won four of their last five, but the Bucks come in off a loss in Miami, one night after winning in Charlotte. Milwaukee averages 119.1 PPG and it allows 106.8, while Indiana averages 109.4 PPG and it allows 107.2. The pick: Milwaukee is almost always a big favorite, but I think it's going to easily cover this larger spread tonight, as note that it's 5-0 ATS in its last five at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after a SU loss of ten or more points. The stage is set for a 20 point blowout victory here. I'm laying the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks. |
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03-04-20 | Niagara v. Siena -11 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I think 17-10 Siena is going to lay the smackdown on 11-18 Niagara. This is a revenge game for the Saints after the Purple Eageles somehow managed a SU outright, 1-point win over the Saints. Niagara has won four of its last six games, while Sienna has won seven of its last ten. The pick: The Purple Eagles though for the most part have been terrible defensively, allowing their opponents to hit at a 46 percent rate from the floor. The Saints on the other hand have turned up the pressure defensively of late and I look for that trend to carry over here vs. this poor Niagara offense (note that the Saints have given up an average of just 60 points in their last seven conference contests.) The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five at home. I'm laying the points here and expecting a blowout of epic proportions. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena. |
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03-04-20 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech -1 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: In this battle between 15-13 Clemson and 15-14 Virginia Tech, I think that the "home court advantage" will be significant for the Hokies tonight. VT has to be feeling confident here as well, as it already beat the Tigers on their own floor earlier in the season. Both teams have big victories on the season, but each has looked downright terrible at times as well. The pick: And after losing nine of its last ten, I absolutely believe that Virginia Tech is the "hungrier" team in this fight, especially considering that the Tigers enter off an improbable last-second upset over Louisville! Can anyone say letdown spot?! Each team is playing for pride for the most part here, but VT is desperate on Seniors Night. Lay the short points. 10* ACC BEST OF THE BEST on Virginia Tech. |
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03-03-20 | Raptors v. Suns +4 | Top | 123-114 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are "hungry" for a win after three straight losses. But Phoenix is at home and it has the motivation of "revenge" as well after falling in Toronto earlier in the year. Toronto has been dealing with injuries to several key players all year and now guard Fred VanVleet is questionable tonight as well. Kelly Oubre has been lost for the season for Phoenix, but this one sets up perfectly for the Suns tonight in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Toronto is just 2-4 ATS this year after allowing 120 points or more in its previous contest and interestingly a poor 21-23 ATS this year vs. teams which allow 106 points or more per game, while Phoenix is a solid 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. I'm expecting an outright win here for the home side, but I'm going to grab the points in the end. 10* NON-CONF ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Phoenix Suns. |
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03-03-20 | Cincinnati -3 v. South Florida | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bearcats will be in the NCAA Tournament, but they won't want to take the foot off the gas now with just two games left in the regualr season. USF is just 6-10 in AAC action. The only way the Bulls are going to The Dance is if they can somehow win the conference tournament, and obviously that's not going to happen. I think the Bearcats can "smell the blood in the water" and I look for them to deliver the knock out blow to the home side's hopes tonight. The Bearcats can lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament today and I expect them to play with desperation from the opening tip, until the final horn. The pick: Note as well that Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -4.5 points range. The Bearcats are deeper, more talented and are the "hungrier dog" in this fight. I'm laying the points. 10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Cincinnati. |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -8.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Jazz will lay the hammer down here in this favorable position. Utah just hammered the Wizards by double digits and I expect this deep visiting side to once again win by a sizeable margin. Cleveland for the most part has been a complete disaster and it enters with zero momentum after having lost two straight. The pick: The Jazz have been fantastic in this spot for bettors all year as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing with two days rest and interestinly 10-4 ATS this season after scoring 120 points or more in their previous contest, while Cleveland is just 9-12 ATS after a home loss this year and a poor 9-15 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are firing on all cylinders right now and I like them to combine and obliterate this home side. Lay the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Utah Jazz. |
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03-01-20 | Lakers v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers likely got "caught looking ahead" to this game after they lost in Memphis just last night right? Not in my opinion. The Grizzlies had lost five straight going into that one and they also played with revenge after losing to the Lakers earlier in the year. The Pelicans are in the same boat as Memphis, playing with revenge and in need of victories. New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season right now and I believe this young core of super stars is going to risk life and limb tonight to try and pull off this minor upset, while also avenging last week's loss in LA. The Lakers are great, but this is a difficult spot in the second game of the back to back. The pick: Note as well that LA is interestingly just 5-6 ATS this year on all games played on a "Sunday," while New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU home win. I'm grabbing the points, but I'm expecting the outright. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Orleans Pelicans. |
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03-01-20 | Xavier v. Georgetown | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: It's 18-10 Xavier at 15-13 Georgetown. I think the home side is going to find a way to get the job done here. Note that the Hoyas play with revenge after the flost by nine at Xavier earlier in the year. Xavier is projected to be a ten seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Georgetown is on the bubble and falling off quickly after three straight losses. This is essentially a "do or die" game for the Hoyas. They also play with revenge. As primarily a "situational" handicapper, I do indeed believe that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Xavier is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine conference road games as a -3.5 points favorite or pick, while Georgetown is 6-2 ATS in its last eight conference home games after three games or longer SU losing streak. I'm backing the "hungrier" dog in this fight. 10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Georgetown. |
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02-29-20 | Kansas v. Kansas State +11.5 | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Back on January 21st these teams played together and Kansas won 81-60, but at the end there was a bench clearing brawl that made national head lines and each team had players suspended because of it. Kansas comes in off a big 25 point win over Oklahoma State, while K-State enters off an 85-66 loss to Baylor. But after covering the spread in six straight games, I think the visiting side will be in for a real fight here vs. this revenge-minded home side. The pick: K-State may have lost eight in a row, but note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a conference road loss as a ten points or higher underdog. I think Kansas does in some small way get caught looking past K-State today. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Kansas State. |
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02-29-20 | Pittsburgh +8 v. NC State | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Ultimately I think that Pitt comes in under the radar here after five-straight losses. NC State has issues as well, as it enters having lost two straight. Neither team is "hungrier" than the other, so we can throw overall motivation out the window here in this one. Overall the Panthers average 64.9 PPG and they allow 64.6, while NC State averages 74.5 PPG and it allows 69.6. The pick: Note as well that Pitt is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games following a five-games or longer SU losing streak, while NC State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten home conference games as a favorite in the 7.5 to 9.5 points range. I'm grabbing the points. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Pittsburgh. |
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02-28-20 | Kings v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best ball of the season over the last three weeks, but they're coming off a tight 112-108 loss in OKC just last night and I have a hard time seeing this team mustering much of an attack here from this desperate home side. The Grizzlies will be risking life and limb here to get back into the winners circle after going 0-4 on their most recent road trip. Note that the Kings are also 2-1 so far in this season series, meaning that the "revenge factor" also comes into play. The pick: It's interesting to note as well that Sacramento is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven after having won six or seven of its last eight games, while Memphis is 4-1 ATS this year off a loss against a division rival. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies. |
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02-27-20 | Lakers v. Warriors +13.5 | Top | 116-86 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the opener of a three-game road trip for the Western Conference leading Lakers. Clearly LA is the much better team here. That said, I do indeed believe that the Lake-Show will get caught "looking past" its lowly opponent tonight to much more difficult contests on the immediate horizon. Golden State comes in under-manned, but motivated here to break a seven-game slide. Situationally for sure I think this one sets up well for the underdog home side. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are a poor 10-12 ATS this year as a road favorite, while Golden State is a perfect 2-0 ATS this year as a home dog of 12.5 points or more. With the visiting side likely sitting out some players tonight and considering all of the other above situational and trend based factors, I will in the end recommend to grab as many points as you can. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Golden State Warriors. |
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02-26-20 | VCU -5.5 v. Massachusetts | 52-60 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: VCU is 7-7 in conference play after an 80-62 loss in St. Louis last time out. A date vs. 6-8 UMass is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion. UMass looks poised for a letdown here ultimately in my opinion after two straight wins, including a 57-49 victory over Fordham. Overall VCU averages 71.3 PPG and it allows 65, while the Minutemen average 68.7 PPG and they allow 71.6. The pick: VCU is the "hungrier" team here for sure after four straight losses. The Rams though are a money-making 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a four-games or longer conference losing streak and I expect this strong trend to continue here. Lay the points. 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on VCU. |
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02-26-20 | St. John's +13 v. Villanova | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanove will be playing in the tournament, but St. John's is desperate for a few more wins. An outright upset here would solidify its spot and while I'm not actually calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Red Storm play with revenge here after losing by 20 to the Wildcats at home earlier in the season. Clearly Villanova is the better team, but after four straight wins I beleive it'll struggle to maintain focus today. The pick: Note as well that St. John's is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games in trying to revenge a same season home loss of 20 points or more, while Villanova is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-games or longer SU/ATS unbeaten streak. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on St. John's. |
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02-25-20 | Oilers -1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: I fancy the Oilers to find a way to win this game, but only win, but to find a way to win by a wide margin. Most recently Connor McDavid returned to Edmonton's line-up and he scored a goal and had two assists in his team's 4-2 win at LA. The Ducks have lost four in a row and I think they'll have a hard time keeping pace tonight after they fell 6-5 to Las Vegas last time out. Overall Edmonton averages 3.16 GPG and it allows 3.06, while Anaheim averages 2.52 GPG and it allows 3.16. The pick: Additionally note that the Ducks are 0-5 in their last five at home, while Edmonton is 7-3 in its last ten on the road. I don't think it'll be necessary to rely on an "empty netter" to cash this one. Look for Edmonton to go up early and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn. 10* PUCK-LINE DESTROYER on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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02-25-20 | Pistons v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 98-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit's patchwork line-up is coming off another disheartening loss on the road in Portland last time out and I think this team will now struggle in the thin air of this difficult road venue. Denver is staying focussed as well right now, as evidenced by its double digit win over the Wolves (another team that won't be in the playoffs) in its latest action. The pick: Denver is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest. The situation AND the numbers/trends all point to a home side blowout in this one. Lay the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK the Denver Nuggets. |
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02-25-20 | Miami-OH v. Kent State -10 | Top | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Kent State comes in hungry after its 104-98 double OT loss to Buffalo last time out. Buffalo now moves two games ahead of the Flashes and with just four games remaining, it's now or never for Kent State. A date vs. the last place Redhawks is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as well. Kent State also plays with revenge here after inexplicably falling to Miami Ohio 77-74 in the reverse fixture. The pick: Kent State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five after back-to-back SU losses and as a home favorite in the -9.5 to -11.5 points range, while Miami Ohio is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road. If not now, when for the Flashes?! I'm expecting a victory of the "rocking chair" variety here. Lay the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Kent State. |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State +15 v. Kansas | Top | 58-83 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas is better than Oklahoma State in every conceivable way, but the Jayhawks look primed for a classic "letdown" here in my estimation after their big road win over then No. 1 Baylor last time out. Oklahoma State comes in with nothing to lose and the Cowboys are also confident, as they enter off an 83-66 win over Oklahoma. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the visiting side. The pick: Note though that Oklahoma State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while KU is already 0-4 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 15 points range. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle until the end. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State. |
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02-24-20 | Knicks +14 v. Rockets | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets are the better team. They have better players and their offense is better. Houston's defense isn't that much better than the Knicks on most nights though. Off three straight wins and with conference rival Memphis coming to town, followed by a tough game at Boston, this one definitely sets up as a bit of a "trap" for the Rockets as well. New York has had two nights off and I believe this young team takes advantage of his complacent home side. The pick: Outright upset? I'm stopping short in call for a straight up win for the Knicks, but note that they're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a home loss. Also note that Houston is just 5-11 ATS already this season after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Knicks. |
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02-23-20 | Pacers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 81-127 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana lost four straight before a win over the Bucks in their final outing before the All Star break. It then came out and posted a win and cover in New York to open the second half. The Pacers will have their work cut out for them here as well if they hope to win SU on the road and while they may not occur, I do think that the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Toronto hasn't had many lapses this year, but with the Bucks coming to town on Tuesday night, the possibility of a "look ahead" is definitely in the cards for the home side as well. The pick: Indiana plays with revenge today and note that it's 6-2 ATS in its last eight when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent. Toronto on the other hand is already an extremely poor 3-8 ATS this season as a home favorite of six points or less. I'm banking on a battle until the final shot. Grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers. |
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02-23-20 | Sharks v. Islanders -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 140 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sharks led the Rangers for most of their game in The Big Apple yesterday, but in the end they came up short in the 3-2 setback. Now I think that San Jose simply "goes through motions" in the second game of the back to back. The Islanders are in a dog fight for positioning right now, but they are among the league leaders in giving up just 2.82 GPG overall (just 2.52 at home). The pick: And that's bad news for a Sharks team which only averages 2.57 GPG overall. Expect the home side to grind this one down to a snails pace and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable PUCK LINE cover. 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Islanders. |
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02-23-20 | New Mexico +9.5 v. Boise State | Top | 61-74 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Boise State is 18-10 overall and 10-6 in conference polay, but 17-11 New Mexico (6-9) isn't going to simply roll over here. New Mexico comes in desperate after three straight losses (all to stiff competition: SDSU, UNLV and Nevada). Overall New Mexico averages 78.5 PPG, while allowing 76.6. Boise State averages 77 PPG and it allows 69.4. The pick: New Mexico is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games after three or more SU conference losses, while Boise State is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite in the -8.5 to -11.5 points range. This spread is just too large considering all of these factors listed above. 10* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico. |
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02-22-20 | California v. Washington -9 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Cal is jsut 11-15, while Washington is only 12-15. The Huskies though play with revenge here after falling 61-58 in OT at Cal earlier in the year. The Golden Bears broke a four-game slide with their first road win of the year last time out in beating Washignton State, but I think a predictable letdown is inevitable here vs. this revenge minded home side. These team's offensive and defensive numbers are similar (poor), but note that the Huskies are still 9-6 at home this year and they're two Pac 12 victories have also been on their own floor. The pick: Finally note that Cal is just 1-5 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. poor offensive teams which average 64 points or less per contest. I think the hungrier home side keeps the foot on the gas until the final horn. Lay the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Washington. |
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02-22-20 | Kings v. Clippers -10.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Clippers to cover the big number at home today. The Kings opened up the second half of the season with a big 129-125 home win over Memphis, but I think that an immediate return to mediocrity is in store here. The Clippers return home off a 141-133 road loss in Boston and I think a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. I look for the veterans on the Clippers to go at the young Kings backcourt of Buddy Hield and D'Aron Fox. The pick: The Clippers recently added Macus Morris and Reggie Jackson to the line-up. LA has dominated this series at home as well, going 5-1 the last six at home vs. Sacarmento. The Kings on the other hand are a poor 7-8 ATS already this season after allowing 120 points or more in their previous outing. Look for Sac to take a step back and for the Clippers to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the LA Clippers. |
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02-22-20 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh +3 | Top | 59-56 | Push | 0 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The defending National Champs are going to be in a dog-fight today in my opinion. And in a contest which I believe is decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. UVA has won three straight after an 80-73 loss to Louisville earlier in the month. UVA's defense remains elite this year, holding opponents to just 52.6 PPG, but it's offense has been putrid in averaging only 57.6 PPG. The pick: Pittsburgh will need a miracle to make it into the NCAA tournament, but the Panthers are still gunning for a spot in the NIT. Off three straight losses, I think Pittsburgh hangs tough here at home. Overall Pitt averages 65.9 PPG and it allows 64.6. Additionally note that UVA is just 6-14 ATS as the favorite this year, while Pittsburgh is a stellar 5-1 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per game. Grab the points. 10* UNDERDOG BLOOD-BATH on Pittsburgh. |
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02-21-20 | VCU -1.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 62-80 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for these middle of the pack A 10 teams. VCU is 17-9 and Saint Louis is 18-8. VCU is on the bubble now after four straight losses, meaning that every contest from here on out is essentially 'do or die.' VCU though comes in off two tight losses vs. two really good teams in Richmond and Dayton, holding the high-flying Flyers to just 66 points. The Billikens come in with zero momentum as well after losing three of their last four. Saint Louis recently suffered a big blow when guard Gibson Jimerson was lost to a foot injury. The pick: VCU is also an awesome 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as a road favorite or pick (including 3-1 ATS this year), while Saint Louis is already a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after playing a road game. The Rams' recent losing streak can be attributed to the level of their competition of late. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on VCU. |
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02-21-20 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers fell victim to a red hot Knicks team a week before the All Star break. Indiana earned a victory in its final game of the first half over Milwaukee (sans Giannis) and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here after a poor scuffling stretch leading up. The Knicks' run came to an end shortly after the Pacers victory with back-to-back losses going into the All Star game to the lowly Hawks and Wizards. The pick: Both teams have struggled with consistency this season, but Indiana clearly has much better depth. Also note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. New York on the other hand is just 5-15 in its last 20 at home. I look for Indiana's experienced backcourt of Brogdon and Oladipo to be the difference here. Lay the points. 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers. |
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02-20-20 | Belmont v. Morehead State +10.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams still have an outside shot at The Tournament. Belmont comes in off a 101-84 win over Jacksonville State, but after six straight wins, I believe the visiting side does indeed get caught "looking past" its opponent in some small way today. Morehead State is clearly the "hungrier" team after three straight losses. Morehead State also plays with revenge here. The pick: Note as well that Belmont is already a poor 4-7 ATS this year as a road favorite or pick and just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight covers as a double digit favorite, while Morehead State is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. I'm banking on the hungier, revenge-minded home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with teh ample points it's been afforded in this one. 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST is Morehead State. |
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02-19-20 | George Mason +12.5 v. Richmond | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: After four straight victories, I think that Richmond gets caught looking past lowly George Mason, which is just 3-9 in league play so far. George Mason plays with revenge here though after the Spiders won 97-87 on the road in mid January. The Patriots average 68.2 PPG and the Spiders average 75.1. The Patriots still have an outside shot at the NCAA Tournament, but it'll depend on how they close out the rest of the way and what they do in the Conference tournament. One game at a time obviously. The pick: George Mason is also a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the +12.5 to +15 points range, while Richmond is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by ten points or more. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on George Mason. |
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02-19-20 | Chattanooga v. The Citadel +9.5 | Top | 91-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Citadel won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's just 6-19 overall and winless in conference play. I had a pick on St. Joe's last night and it also was winless in conference action, until its monster come from behind upset outright victory. While I don't expect anything as dramatic as that in this one, everything does point to the home side keeping it competitive throughout in my opinion. Chattanooga is 7-7 in the Southern Conference. Note that Chattanooga averages 72 PPG, while the Citadel averages 76. The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Chattanooga is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after successfully covering the spread in three or more straight outings, while The Citadel is 6-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 85 points or more. Grab the points, expecting a close battle. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on The Citadel. |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +7 v. Penn State | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams should be in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini though come in as the "hungrier" team though after a loss to Rutgers last time out. Illinois has a balanced attack and it's ranked as the 32nd best tam according to KenPom. Penn State beat Northwestern 77-61 last time out, its eighth straight win. KenPom has the Nittany Lions ranked as the 11th best team in the Nation, but I think the home side will have its hands full with this determined visiting side. The pick: Illinois is also already 2-0 ATS this year off an embarrassing road loss in which it scored less than 60 points in and 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. good offensvie teams which score 77 plus points per contest. I'm banking on the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. 10* 'COACH'S CORNER' on Illinois. |
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02-18-20 | Vanderbilt +11.5 v. Tennessee | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: Vandy is just 3-7 the last ten in this series, but I think the "under the radar" visiting side does enough to get the comfortable cover once it's all said and done. Saban Lee averages 21 PPG for the Commodores, who average a very respectable 69 points per game on the road. Vanderbilt's poor defense catches a break here as well facing the slower paced Vols, who average only 66 PPG at home this season. The pick: Note as well that Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS In its last ten as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Tennessee is only 5-8 ATS this year as a home favorite. I think Vanderbilt's offense mathches pace and while I'm not going to call for the outright upset, everything points to a competitive battle. Grab the points. 9* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on Vanderbilt. |
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02-18-20 | Davidson v. St. Joe's +11.5 | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Davidson is 13-11 overall, 7-5 in conference play and just 4-6 as the road team. It looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after its big 93-64 win over St. Bonaventure. I think the Wildcats get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The Hawks are 4-21 overall, 0-12 in league play and 2-9 at home. Most recently St. Joe's fell to Rhode Island 73-55. The pick: Davidson is just 4-7 ATS on the road this year and it's 0-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. St. Joe's on the other hand is already 4-1 ATS this year after three straight losses by ten points or more. I admit the Hawks are horrible, but Davidson has been poor as well. This sets up as a bit of a mental letdown spot for the visitors, while the home side is still desperate to post its first conference victory of the year. I'm grabbing the points. 8* ATS BLOOD-BATH on St. Joseph's. |
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02-17-20 | Iowa State +15.5 v. Kansas | Top | 71-91 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas has won ten straight and it sits just one game back of 12-0 Baylor for the lead. The Jayhawks are at the Bears in their next game and I think that sets this one up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side. Note that Iowa State also plays with revenge after losing 79-53 at home to the Jayhawks earlier in the year. The Cyclones additionally come in "under the radar" after winning two of their last three. That includes their best offensive performance of the year in their 81-52 win over Texas. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up well for the Cyclones. Kansas can't afford to lose any ground on Baylor, but I believe that the conditions are all in place to classify this as a "trap" for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Iowa State is 3-1 ATS in its last four in revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, while Kansas is already 0-4 ATS this year as a home favorite in the 12.5 to 18 points range. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State. |
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02-16-20 | All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis +6 | Top | 157-155 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: For these types of events/wagers, I always try to "find an angle" to use. Team LeBron won this event last year, so Team Giannis already plays with the "revenge" factor. But overall I think Team Giannis holds a lot of value because of the way that Antetokounmpo's draft has widely been viewed. While on paper Team LeBron could look better, I believe the way that Team Giannis has been viewed by the media as being the "lesser" team will only add fuel to the fire to these All Stars. The pick: And that's the case. This game is being played by the best of the best. And in these types of games, everyone is looking for some sort of motivation to use. And in this case, as mentioned above, Team Giannis has two big motivational factors working in its favor today. While I obviously would not be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm going to grab the points. 10* BLOWOUT SPECTACULAR on Team Giannis. |
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02-16-20 | Villanova -6 v. Temple | Top | 76-56 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Villanova won't want to take the foot off the gas now in this dangerous non-conference road matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Wildcats escaped most recently with a slim 72-71 win over Marquette on Wednesday, while the Owls nudged past Tulane 72-68. Villanova's five starters all average in double figures; overall the Wildcats average 73.5 PPG. Temple has just two players averaging in double figures and the Owls average 69.3 PPG. The pick: Temple's been great at home of late, but now the level of competition gets raised dramatically. Villanova's depth is going to be the difference for me today, as I expect the Wildcats to come in focussed on the task at hand after their most recent "close call." Lay the points. 10* SUPER-DESTRUCTION on Villanova. |
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02-15-20 | Syracuse +9.5 v. Florida State | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams will be equally as "hungry" here. Both teams come in off losses. Syracuse is in a two-way tie for fifth place and so far its 4-2 on the road this year. Overall the Orange average 74 PPG and they allow 68.3. The Seminoles are coming in off a loss to Duke. FSU averages 75.1 PPG and it allows 65.1. The pick: I'll point out though that Syracuse is 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference road games as an underdog in the 8.5 to 11.5 points range, while FSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games following a SU loss and favored by 8.5 points or more. I like the Orange to fight until the end. Grab the points. 10* VERY EARLY NATIONAL TV BLOCKBUSTER on Syracuse. |
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02-14-20 | Devils v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 120 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Off a 4-1 win at home over Detroit, I execpt the Devils to predictably stumble here in the second game of the back-to-back. Also note that Carolina plays with revenge after falling 5-3 in New Jersey back in early November. Carolina is very much in the playoff hunt, but after dropping five of its last ten, it's now or never to make its push in my estimation. Most recently the Hurricanes lost 4-1 in Dallas. The pick: It's interesting to note as well that the Devils are a terrible 1-9 (-9.1 units) on "Friday nights" for some reason this season, while the Hurricanes are 10-6 (+2.9 units) when playing with two days rest. Not only do I expect Carolina to win, but I look for it to win big here. 10* PUCK-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Carolina Hurricanes. |
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02-14-20 | Fairfield v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game, as both teams are tied for eighth spot with a 5-7 record in the MAAC. The Stags play with revenge today after the Red Foxes picked up the 70-58 road win, snapping an 11 game losing streak for Marist at the time. Both teams season averages are comparable. They're bad. Marist's recent/current form is better, but I think that swings the value the other way here. Fairfield is the hungrier/more desperate team and it's also playing with revenge. The pick: And note that Fairfield is 10-5 ATS as an underdog this year and 4-0 ATS this season revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Marist is 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite and just 2-3 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog. Clearly the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Fairfield. |
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02-13-20 | Thunder +2 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-118 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder won nine of ten and got complacet and then lost two in a row at home to the Celtics and Thunder. OKC won't be taking the Pelicans for granted here and I believe its depth and experience will prove to be too much for the younger home side. The Pelicans do indeed look ripe for a letdown here in my estimation after three straight victories. OKC has won the first three of this four game season series and I expect them to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Thunder average 110.8 PPG, while the Pelicans allow 117.2. New Orleans averages 115.7 PPG, but OKC allows only 107.9. The pick: OKC has lost two in a row at home, but it's won seven straight on the road. I'm throwing the revenge factor out the window here, as I believe the Thunder are just as motivated to try and complete the season sweep, while also looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses. The Pelicans on the other look primed for a letdown, as I've mentioned above already. Grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Oklahoma City Thunder. |
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02-13-20 | Wichita State -2 v. UCF | Top | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Wichita State opened the season 15-1, but it's since lost five of its last seven. It beat UCF 89-79 at home earlier in the year, but it didn't cover the 11.5 point spread. The UCF Knights have won two in a row, but I think they'll have their hands full here vs. the No. 45 Shockers who average 72.3 PPG, and allow 64.5. UCF averages 68.3 PPG and it allows 66.7. The pick: Note though that the Shockers are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after three or more consecutive losses, while UCF is only 3-7 ATS at home this year and just 1-2 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This is a big game for the Shockers and I look for them to finally get back on track in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wichita State. |
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02-13-20 | Memphis v. Cincinnati -6.5 | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Memphis has the better overall record at 17-6, but it's 6-4 ACC record sits behind 15-8 Cincinnati's record of 8-3. The Bearcats fell 60-49 at Memphis earlier in the year, making "revenge" a significant factor working in their favor tonight. Memphis averages 73.7 PPG and it allows 64.1, while Cincinnati averages 72.5 PPG and it allows 65.7. The pick: Note though that Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Memphis is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following three or more straight home games. The Bearcats have gotten better as the season has worn on. I like the home side to play with aggression tonight on its own floor and to avenge the earlier loss. Lay the points. 9* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati. |
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02-12-20 | Xavier v. Butler -4.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Musketeers won their third game in a row by beating Providence 64-58, but I think they'll have their hands full with this hungry home side this evening. Butler won't be lacking for motivation after a poor 76-57 loss to Marquette in its latest action. Overall Xavier is averaging 71.3 PPG, while the Bulldogs average 68.9. The Bulldogs though are ranked 48th in field goal percentage in the nation. The pick: The Musketeers are also only 3-4 ATS on the road, including 0-2 ATS as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Butler is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite or pick. I think the "hungrier" home side rises up to the challenge and gets back no track with a conviving win. Lay the points. 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Butler. |
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02-11-20 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -4.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Notre Dame comes in off a four-point road win over Clemson to improve to 15-8 on the year and 6-6 in league play, but I believe it'll take a step back here vs. the defensive-minded Cavaliers. Virginia comes in highly motivated after a seven point loss to Louisville in its last action, falling to 15-7 overall and 7-5 in conference play. Notre Dame averages 76.2 PPG and it allows 68.4. UVA averages 56.8 PPG and it allows only 51.7. The pick: As good as the Irish have looked of late, note that they're still just 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. And note that UVA has performed well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. I believe the hungrier home side's suffocating defensive play is the difference maker in this one. Lay the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on Virginia. |
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02-10-20 | Panthers +1.5 v. Flyers | 1-4 | Loss | -225 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this game is going to be decided late or even in extra time, so in that case I feel it's worth the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Florida has won three in a row in this series, including a 5-2 victory in November. That said, the Panthers enter desperate here to break a three-game slide. Philly enters on the other end of the spectrum, having won five of its last seven and three in a row at home. The Panthers though are on the cusp, as despite falling to Pittsburgh last time out, they outshot it by 13 in the unfortunate setback. Philly though looks poised for a classic letdown here after its big 7-2 road win in the Nation's capital last time out. The pick: Note as well that Florida is 3-0 (+3 units) already this season after three or more straight losses, while Philly is just 6-10 (-4.2 unit) this year following a divisional contest. 6* PLAY on the PANTHERS PUCK-LINE. |
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02-09-20 | Northwestern +11 v. Rutgers | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Northwestern comes in focussed after having a week off to absorb its one point loss to Purdue last weekend. This is the first time these teams have played this year, but last season they split, each winning on the road. Note that the Wildcats are 4-1 all time at the RAC. This is the start of four games in ten days for Northwestern, so getting out on the "right foot" of a journey like this always paramount and with a week off to prepare, I expect NW to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Rutgers returns home after a two-game trip. The Scarlet Knights are 15-0 at home so far this year. Note though that NU has suffered four conference defeats this season by four points or less. The pick: Note as well that NW is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games when playing with six or more days rest and as a double-digit underdog, while Rutgers is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -10 to -13.5 points range. I think the home side comes in complacent and I believe the visitors come in hungry. Probably no outright, but it'll be close. Grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on Northwestern. |
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02-09-20 | Pennsylvania v. Cornell +5 | 79-73 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cornell jumped out to an early lead yesterday in its 73-62 win over Princeton and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas here. Pennsvylvania comes in off a 76-67 victory at Columbia, but I believe it'll have a much tighter fight on its hands today vs. the suddenly confident Big Red team. Cornell now faces former Big Red head coach Steve Donahue today, looking to avenge the fact that they've dropped 13 of the last 14 in this series. The pick: Note that Penn is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten when coming off a five-points or greater victory and playing with zero days rest, while Cornell is 8-2 ATS in its last ten home games playing on no rest and off a win of ten points or more. I like the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points. 8* BEST OF BEST on Cornell. |
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02-08-20 | Spurs -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 102-122 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my picks on many things. Primarily though I'm a "situational" handicapper and from a situational stand-point, I think this one works highly in favor of the visiting side. The Kings have won two straight, most recently a very satisfying victory over the Heat at home just last night. The Spurs come in as the "hungrier" team after three straight losses. The Kings are just 10-15 at home this season anyways. The pick: The Spurs are also 7-3 ATS in their last ten after two or more consecutive losses and 3-1 ATS in their last four as a road favorite, while Sacramento is just 5-9 ATS as a home dog this year and only 3-4 ATS this season vs. teams which average over 106 plus points per contest. Look for the Spurs to take advantage of this tired/content Kings side and lay the points. 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Antonio Spurs. |
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02-07-20 | Harvard +6.5 v. Yale | Top | 78-77 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Harvard is 13-6 and it's looking to bounce back after losing its last two games by a combined four points. Most recently The Crimson fell to Princeton, 70-69. Harvard is still 6-3 on the road though and I think it will in fact use the last two losses as motivation to once again take this contest down to the wire. Outright victory? Clearly very possible. But in a game which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. Yale is 7-0 at home and 14-4 ATS this year. The Bulldogs are no pushovers, but I think that's just added incentive for The Crimson to "come to play" today. The pick: Note as well that Harvard is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 as an underdog, including 2-0 ATS this year, while Yale is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a home vs. a conference rival, including 0-2 ATS this season. This one has "nail biter" written all over it, so grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on Harvard. |
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02-06-20 | BYU v. Portland +17 | Top | 85-54 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the second place Cougars get caught looking past their lowly opponent tonight. Now, I'm not calling for the outright upset or anything, but I'm definitely expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Yes, BYU is 6-3 in WCC action and Portland is just 9-15 overall and 1-7 in league play, but I believe the home side "comes to play" tonight. BYU comes in off a monumental 81-79 win over Saint Mary's last time out, which sets it up for a classic "letdown" here in my opinion. Portland most recently fell 85-61 to Santa Clara. The pick: Note though that BYU is just 1-3 ATS this season already as a road favorite or pick and just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 off a win vs. a conference rival, while Portland is already 3-0 ATS this season in revenging a loss in which the opponent scored 85 points or more in. Look for the Pilots to play with passion as they try to avenge the earlier setback and expect the visitors to leave the back door open just enough for home side to comfortably sneak in through once it's all said and done. 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on Portland. |
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02-06-20 | CS Sacramento v. Weber State -1 | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show | |
The set-up: Weber State is the "hungrier" team here in my opinion. The Wildcats are 8-14 overall and 4-7 in Big Sky play. Weber State beat Southern Utah last Thursday, and then fell to Northern Colorado on the weekend. Sacramento State is 11-9 overall, but it's also only just 4-7 in league action. The Hornets come in with zero momentum as well, as they've lost three straight, most recently a 67-53 setback to Idaho on Monday. Weber State also plays with the added incentive of "revenge" tonight after it fell 71-57 in Sacramento back on January 11th. The pick: Sacramento State is also a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a road dog of three points or less (including 0-2 ATS this season), while Weber State is already 4-1 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the short points, expect a big rout. 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Weber State. |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -7 | Top | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver destroyed Portland 127-99 last night, but I think it'll come out flat here vs. this desperate Jazz team. Utah has last four straight and I believe it's going to keep the foot on the gas from to finish here as it looks ot take advantage vs. the now weary Nuggets team. The Jazz are still 18-4 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena this year and I expect that record to improve resoundinly after this one. The pick: The Nuggets are also just 48-60 ATS in their last 108 on the raoad and only 2-4 ATS this season after covering in four or five of their last six vs. the spread, while Utah is a perfect 4-0 ATS already this year after failing to cover four of its last five vs. teh spread, 5-2 ATS in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent and 2-0 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of six points or more. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction for the home side. Lay the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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02-05-20 | Iowa State +11.5 v. West Virginia | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: Am I predicting an outright upset here? Nope. But I do think that the "hungrier" team will come in "under the radar" here and keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers are 17-4 overall and 5-3 in league play, while Iowa State enters having lost five of its last six (9-12 overall.) Note that the Cyclones aren't the same team that made the NCAA Tournament last year, but they're still averaging 74.7 PPG, while allowing 72.2. WVU averages 73.3 PPG and it allows 61.3. The pick: Note though that Iowa State is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off two straight losses vs. a conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season), while WVU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range (including only 1-2 ATS this year.) No outright, but closer than expected. 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Iowa State. |
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02-05-20 | Southern Illinois v. Evansville +4 | Top | 64-60 | Push | 0 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Southern Illinois has won five straight and is 7-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, but I believe it'll finally have a letdown here vs. this hungry home side. Evansville is desperate beyond believe after opening conference play by going 0-10, most recently falling 80-68 to Northern Iowa. The Salukis are just 10-12 overall though and if not now, when for the Purple Aces? The Salukis average 63.3 points and it allows 60.8. Evansville averages 69.2 PPG and it allows 75.2. Yes, on paer this one favors SIU, but I think the visitors finally get caught looking past their opponent today. The pick: Note as well that SOuthern Illinois is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a road win, while Evansville is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 80 points or more (including 4-2 ATS this season.) I'm primarily a "situational" handicapper and this one falls into several of my systems. Clearly the outright win isn't out of the question, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville. |
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02-04-20 | Duke v. Boston College +15.5 | Top | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is is coming off a 97-88 win and cover on the road over Syracuse, but I think it'll have its hands full here vs. this hungry BC side. Boston College is just 7-7 at home, but it comes in off an impressive 71-70 win over UNC and I have no reason not to believe that the Eagles can't carry over that confidence/momentum here. BC is playing its best basketball of the season and it's out to avenge a terrible 88-49 loss to Duke on December 31st. On paper the Blue Devils are clearly the better team. But BC's recent improvement in play, combined with these strong situational factors make the home side the correct call here in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Duke is a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite in teh 12.5 to 18 points range, while BC is a solid 5-2 ATS this season revenging a loss vs. an opponent which scored 75 points or more in. I'm grabbing the points and expecting an all out battle until the end. 10* DESTRUCTION on Boston College. |
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02-03-20 | Wolves +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Enough is enough. After 11 straight losses, I look for the Wolves to risk life and limb to pull out this victory today. The Kings come in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers. The Wolves still have one of the best players in the league in Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins is putting up career best numbers. I look for these two to put their team on their backs tonight. The Kings have played only slightly better than the Wolves this year, but I think their young core struggles to keep up with this determined veteran Wolves team. The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while the Kings are just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite this year and only 8-15 ATS at home overall. Grab the points. 10* play on the Wolves. |
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